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Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 13,265.91 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,343.67 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 154,733.00 per tola from INR 155,637.90 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

13,265.91

10 Grams

132,658.70

Tola

154,733.00

Troy Ounce

412,633.90

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

EUR/JPY remains flat after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross is holding above the short-term nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remaining capped by the medium-term 50-period EMA.

The moving averages configuration, together with a near-neutral 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.21, suggests a consolidative tone with a slight bearish bias as the pair struggles to reclaim its 50-period EMA while still respecting nearby dynamic support.

The EUR/JPY cross may test the immediate support at its nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 183.59. A decisive break below this short-term indicator would strengthen the prevailing bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its eight-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3. If downward momentum continues, the next key technical target lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the primary resistance lies at its 50-day EMA near 184.49. A sustained break above the medium-term price average could signal a broader bullish resurgence, opening the path for the pair to retest the area surrounding its all-time peak of 187.95 set on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.07%-0.10%-0.08%-0.03%-0.29%-0.07%EUR0.09%0.01%-0.02%-0.03%0.06%-0.20%0.01%GBP0.07%-0.01%0.00%-0.02%0.05%-0.19%0.02%JPY0.10%0.02%0.00%0.02%0.06%-0.21%0.04%CAD0.08%0.03%0.02%-0.02%0.04%-0.20%0.01%AUD0.03%-0.06%-0.05%-0.06%-0.04%-0.25%-0.03%NZD0.29%0.20%0.19%0.21%0.20%0.25%0.23%CHF0.07%-0.01%-0.02%-0.04%-0.01%0.03%-0.23%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1% to near $63.80 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as financial markets remain worried about the global energy supply disruption due to the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab Strait, which together account for almost 27% of global energy supply.

Minimal traffic through these straits is keeping oil prices higher, a scenario that boosts inflation expectations and prompts fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.

As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades flat at around $80.45. The oil price has faced slight selling pressure in the past few days; however, supply concerns are expected to keep the downside limited.

Oil momentum cools, but TD Securities still sees upside ahead

According to TD Securities, the recent loss of steam in the rally has seen “easing near-term momentum” and has “also catalysed modest selling in WTI crude on the day.” However, the bank’s commodity strategists “continue to highlight that fundamental tightness across crude and product markets should ultimately support further upside,” suggesting that the latest bout of selling is viewed as a temporary setback within an otherwise constructive medium-term outlook for Oil prices.

Meanwhile, traders pricing out the possibility of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in the September meeting due to a slight slowdown in United States (US) inflation growth and rising labor market concerns are expected to limit the downside in the Silver price.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in the September meeting have increased to almost 65%. This is a sharp turnaround from a 75% chance that the Fed would deliver two interest rate hikes by the end of the September policy meeting, recorded a month ago.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAG/USD trades at around $63.78, extending its advance above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.78 and hinting at a bullish near-term bias.

The metal is holding comfortably over its short-term trend indicator, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, suggesting that buyers retain control but still have room to push prices higher.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA near $61.78, which underpins the current bullish structure and would be the first level to watch on any pullback. A deeper slide would expose the broader momentum floor implied by the RSI zone around 56, where dip-buying interest could re-emerge as long as price holds above the $61 handle. On the upside, the June 16 high near $71.20 would be the key hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Key Highlights

USD/JPY found support at 155.25 and started a recovery wave.
A rising channel is forming with support near 158.40 on the 4-hour chart.
Gold failed to extend gains above $4,450 and might correct some gains.
Bitcoin remains below the key resistance at $65,500 and $66,650.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar started a decent recovery above 156.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY climbed above 157.20 to move into a short-term positive zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair almost tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 163.98 swing high to the 155.22 low. However, the bears seem to be active below 159.60.

The pair is also below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 159.60.

The next major resistance might be 160.50 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above 160.50 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 161.20.

Any more gains might open the door for a test of 162.00. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 158.50. There is also a rising channel forming with support at 158.40.

The next major support could be near 158.00. The main support might be 157.20. A downside break and close below 157.20 might send the pair toward 156.50. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 155.25.

Looking at Gold, the bears are active below the $4,500 resistance, and they could aim for a downside correction in the near term.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

US Retail Sales for July 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.1%, versus +0.2% previous.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August 2026 (Prelim) – Forecast 54.5, versus 55.2 previous.

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Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey opened this week’s episode with an old-fashioned banking analogy: Imagine somebody repeatedly claiming to have $100,000 in the bank but refusing to produce a statement or even balance the checkbook. The money might be there, but without verification, skepticism would be reasonable.

That, Maharrey argued, is essentially the situation with America’s gold reserves. He suspects the gold at Fort Knox probably is there. But “probably” isn’t the same as an independent, comprehensive audit.

That question framed one half of the episode. The other centered on an issue Maharrey believes could have much broader economic consequences. That is, recent U.S. intervention to support the Japanese yen and what the unusual mechanics of that intervention may reveal about the deteriorating position of the U.S. dollar.

The Dollar’s reserve-currency advantage is under pressureThe United States recently intervened in currency markets to support the Japanese yen. Such interventions aren’t extraordinary by themselves, but Maharrey argued that the way Washington went about it was revealing.

Dollar reserve status is enormously important to the U.S. monetary and fiscal system. Global demand for dollars absorbs some of the currency created by the Federal Reserve, while international demand for U.S. Treasuries helps finance federal borrowing.

Maharrey stressed that the dollar isn’t likely to suddenly lose reserve-currency status overnight. In his words, it remains the “cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry hamper.” But he argued that persistent borrowing, spending, debt accumulation, and money creation are gradually making the monetary system more fragile.

Normally, if the United States wants to strengthen the yen, it can sell dollars and use the proceeds to buy yen. Increased demand for yen strengthens the Japanese currency, but selling dollars can simultaneously put downward pressure on the greenback.

This time, the Treasury reportedly did something different.

Instead of buying yen with dollars, the U.S. used euros from its reserves. That allowed Washington to support the yen without directly selling dollars. According to the Financial Times, the operation “blindsided” the European Central Bank, which reportedly wasn’t informed until after the intervention.

Why Washington didn't want to sell dollarsUC Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen argued in the Financial Times that the unusual transaction pointed toward a deeper concern - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other U.S. officials may have worried that selling dollar securities to support the yen would put additional pressure on the long end of the Treasury market.

That matters because weakening demand for Treasury securities means lower bond prices and higher yields. Higher yields, in turn, translate into higher borrowing costs for Washington.

Maharrey illustrated the problem with a simple example. If the yield on the 10-year Treasury is 3.5 percent instead of 2.5 percent, the federal government must pay more to borrow. That is especially problematic when the government is already spending more than $1 trillion per year on interest alone.

Japan's situation makes the dilemma even clearer.

When Japan needs to strengthen the yen, it can sell U.S. Treasury securities, receive dollars, and use those dollars to buy yen. Japan has apparently been doing exactly that. Its foreign currency reserves fell by $75.6 billion in May, an amount Bloomberg reported broadly matched the scale of yen intervention that month. Federal Reserve custody data also showed a decline in Japanese Treasury holdings consistent with liquidation.

But Japanese Treasury sales create a headache for Washington. More Treasuries hitting the market can push prices lower and yields higher precisely when the U.S. government needs to borrow enormous sums.

By stepping in to buy yen itself, Washington could therefore accomplish two things at once: support Japan’s currency and reduce Japan’s need to dump Treasuries.

Japan can get dollars without dumping treasuriesThere is another piece to the puzzle.

Japanese officials have indicated they will use the Federal Reserve’s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities, or FIMA, Repo Facility for future currency-support operations.

The Fed created the facility in March 2020 after foreign institutions needing dollars began selling Treasuries during the pandemic, contributing to severe volatility and dysfunction in the Treasury market.

FIMA gives eligible foreign monetary authorities another option. Rather than outright selling Treasuries, they can pledge those securities as collateral and obtain dollars from the Federal Reserve. The loans have a maximum maturity of seven days but can be rolled over.

For Japan, that creates a way to obtain dollars to support the yen without dumping Treasury securities onto the open market. For Washington, it potentially removes another source of selling pressure from the bond market.

Why hold reserves you can't freely use?For Maharrey, this is where the story becomes a de-dollarization story.

Eichengreen argued that the developments suggest the dollar’s status as a reserve currency “is not what it used to be.” Central banks traditionally hold dollar reserves partly because the Treasury market is deep and liquid, allowing those assets to be bought, sold, and deployed in currency interventions.

But what happens if foreign central banks face pressure not to sell their Treasury holdings because Washington is worried about the effect on its own bond market?

Why hold reserves, Maharrey asked, if you can’t freely use them when you need them?

Eichengreen warned that the dollar is becoming less attractive as a reserve currency and predicted that other countries could intensify their search for alternatives. In other words, reserve diversification – another form of de-dollarization – could accelerate.

Gold stands to benefitGold is one obvious alternative.

Capital Economics economist Kieran Tompkins argued that concerns about central banks conducting foreign-exchange operations without upsetting U.S. officials over Treasury-market consequences could provide fresh impetus for central bank gold demand.

That matters because central bank buying has been one of the major pillars supporting the gold bull market in recent years.

Maharrey argued that this demand has helped gold hold around the $4,000 level despite significant interest-rate headwinds and relatively subdued enthusiasm among Western investors. Asian investors, meanwhile, have been aggressively buying the recent dip.

With expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike fading and gold showing signs of breaking out of its range-bound trading pattern, Maharrey sees numerous indicators pointing toward a continuing gold bull market.

Rand Paul goes to Fort KnoxThe second half of the episode shifted from international currency markets to America’s most famous gold vault.

A few weeks earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had insisted that all of the gold at Fort Knox was present and accounted for, despite acknowledging that he had not personally visited the facility.

Then Sen. Rand Paul went to Fort Knox.

After spending roughly one or two hours inside the U.S. Bullion Depository, Paul emerged and declared that the gold was there – approximately 147 million ounces.

Maharrey wasn’t persuaded.

Based on the amount of gold the government says Fort Knox contains, there should be more than 300,000 gold bars inside. Many aren’t even standard modern bullion bars because some Fort Knox holdings originated with coins melted down following the gold policies of the 1930s. Those bars can have irregular weights and insufficient purity to qualify for international settlement.

In Maharrey’s view, there is simply no way somebody can verify more than 300,000 bars during a brief guided visit.

A tour isn't an auditMoney Metals CEO Stefan Gleason sharply criticized the episode, arguing that Paul had effectively been “rolled” after being given the opportunity to tour the mysterious facility.

Gleason also noted that Money Metals operates a precious-metals depository twice the physical size of Fort Knox. He argued that a brief visit cannot establish that America’s gold is fully accounted for, much less answer questions about whether any of it is encumbered.

Another issue is purity. Gleason said 83 percent of the gold is unacceptable on global markets due to insufficient purity.

The episode is especially striking because Paul co-sponsored the Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 with prime sponsor Sen. Mike Lee. That legislation would have provided for a comprehensive audit of U.S. gold reserves.

Sound Money Defense League director Jp Cortez questioned why Paul would back a bill calling for a genuine accounting and then seemingly substitute a Fort Knox “field trip” and assurances that everything was there.

What a real Fort Knox audit would requireMaharrey emphasized that a legitimate audit involves much more than walking through a vault.

A proper independent examination would require every bar to be counted and inspected. Serial numbers would need to be reconciled with official records. Gold would need to be assayed to verify weight and purity. The resulting documentation would then need to be published for public examination.

An audit would also address chain of custody and potential encumbrances.

Has any Fort Knox gold been loaned to another entity? Has it been pledged, leased, swapped, or mobilized in currency operations? Does anybody else hold full or partial claims against metal sitting inside the vault?

Without a comprehensive published audit, Maharrey argued, the public simply cannot know.

The $6 billion questionThat leads to what Maharrey called the “$6 billion question”: Why not simply audit the gold?

He pointed back to 1974, when officials opened the Fort Knox vaults to outsiders. Maharrey characterized that episode as another publicity event rather than the type of rigorous accounting needed to settle the issue.

The continuing resistance to an independent audit only breeds suspicion, he argued. If a private company refused to audit its books and became hostile whenever somebody suggested doing so, that behavior would hardly inspire confidence.

Money Metals has firsthand experience with what a real bullion audit entails. The Money Metals Depository is larger than the U.S. Bullion Depository and undergoes both internal and external auditing.

For Maharrey, that should be the standard… verification rather than assurances.

Don't rely on Washington to protect your moneyThe two seemingly different topics of the episode ultimately came together around the same theme.

The dollar’s international position is showing signs of strain as the U.S. struggles to preserve demand for Treasury securities. Meanwhile, Washington continues asking Americans to accept assurances about the nation’s gold holdings without the kind of comprehensive public audit that would settle the question.

Maharrey also pointed to the long-running erosion of purchasing power, saying government policy is effectively designed to devalue money by more than 10 percent every five years.

His conclusion was that individuals shouldn’t depend on policymakers to preserve their wealth. Instead, he argued that saving in sound money such as physical gold and silver can provide a way to protect purchasing power from monetary debasement.

The dollar may remain the world’s dominant reserve currency for some time. But as Maharrey put it at the end of the episode, “the dollar is not what it used to be.”

Much of the chatter over the past week has centred on the downside surprise in US non-farm payrolls, the soft US CPI report and the undershoot in PPI overnight, which has seen Fed rate hike pricing pared over the next year.

Gold price (XAU/USD) holds positive ground near $4,360 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal gains momentum following US inflation data. Traders will take more cues from the US July Retail Sales report, which is due later on Friday. 

Softer US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reinforced bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will refrain from raising interest rates next month. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the headline PPI was unchanged MoM in July, versus -0.1% prior, below the market expectations of 0.2%. 

Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2% MoM in July, against the forecast for a 0.3% gain. On an annual basis, the headline PPI climbed 4.7% YoY in July, while the core PPI rose 4.2% YoY during the same period. 

Cooler US PPI inflation data sharply reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike next month, which could provide some support to the yellow metal. Money markets priced in less than a 40% chance of a September Fed hike. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.

On the other hand, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding reopening the Strait of Hormuz could raise oil-driven inflation concerns and weigh on the Gold price. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Washington to “be careful” after US President Donald Trump insisted the US has full control of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran's joint military command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said on Thursday that no vessel could transit the critical waterway without Tehran's permission.

Gold support seen holding as Fed stays on pauseAccording to TD Securities, the interest-rate backdrop remains constructive for bullion, with a “Fed likely to remain on hold, despite upside in energy prices” expected to keep “the yellow metal well-supported in the higher range.” The bank suggests that the combination of steady Fed policy and firmer energy markets should help anchor gold prices within this elevated trading band.

Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the key 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD remains capped in the near term as it holds below the 100-day Moving Average (MA), while still trading comfortably above the Bollinger Bands’ middle line. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.72 shows firm but not extreme bullish momentum, which hints that upside attempts could continue, though the broader structure suggests rallies are vulnerable while price stays under the 100-day MA.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day MA at $4,385, with a stronger barrier at the Bollinger Bands’ upper line near $4,435. On the downside, initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around $4,155, ahead of a deeper floor at the lower band near $3,880, where buyers would be expected to reassert themselves if the current pullback extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Throughout July, I had been noting the repeated failed attempts from gold bears to sustain a break below 4,000. And when a level won’t budge, the market has a tendency to eventually go the other way.

Last Tuesday, August 4, I outlined a case for a breakout, arguing that price action, options pricing and futures sentiment all hinted at quiet accumulation. Maybe I got lucky with the timing, but the breakout on August 5 was spectacular, to say the least, with gold rising 5% to mark its best day since February and its second-best day in ten years.

While I suspect gold bulls have more planned, price action on Thursday shows prices have wobbled at their cycle high, hinting at the first bump in the road.

View related analysis:

Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? ASX 200 Outlook: Potential Bull Flag Forms Beneath Record Highs US Dollar Bounce Looks Vulnerable, EUR/USD Respects Resistance for Now Japanese Yen Outlook: US CPI, Intervention Risks Put USD/JPY Bulls on Notice FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Longs Plunged, Yen Shorts Slashed Gold Wobbles, but ‘Dip’ Mentality Could Remain The daily chart shows a solid rally from 4,000 support, although resistance was met around a prior weekly VPOC (volume point of control), just below 4,500. A bearish outside day engulfed Tuesday’s small doji and Wednesday’s small bullish candle, but so far, support has held around 4,400, close to the weekly VPOC at 4,404.

A break beneath this area would bring the 200-day EMA into focus near 4,300, along with the lower end of the recent trading range. If we see bears take full control, the next level they could potentially target is around 4,200, near the recent range lows.

However, given the strength of the bullish range expansion after a prolonged period of consolidation above 4,000, my bias remains for a move towards 4,700, with 4,600 likely to provide interim resistance along the way should the rally continue. Moreover, futures and options sentiment also appears supportive of a “buy the dip” mentality among gold bulls, some of whom may be frustrated at having missed the initial burst higher.

Source: COMEX, TradingView

Gold Price Outlook: Futures Positioning and Options Signals Gold Futures (GC) Positioning | COT Report Net-long exposure has continued to trend higher to gold futures, among large speculators and managed funds managers. Recent data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows funds had a net-long exposure of 131k contracts, their most bullish level in more than six months. Large specs pushed their net-long exposure to a 6-month high just shy of 200k. While gross-longs have been trending gradually higher, it is the collapse of short bets that helped propel net-longs in recent weeks. And I suspect that will continue to be a supporting feature for higher gold prices, with a lack of bearish interest for now.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Gold Options Positioning Signals Cautious Bullishness Two of the three risk reversals I track had flipped into positive territory last week, for the first time since mid-April. This showed that demand for calls outnumbers demand for puts. But we also saw the risk reversals accelerate from low levels ahead of the breakout to show options traders quickly moving away from downside protection relative to bullish bets. The fact it has dipped to negative territory this week is not enough to call for a major swing high in my books, but it does back up the potential for a minor pullback over the near term

Source: ICE, TradingView

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-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

The USD/MXN extends its downtrend for the 14th straight day, down a minimal 0.08% as the Mexican Peso hovers near a 24-month low of 17.01 on Thursday. At the time of writing, the emerging-market currency pair trades below 17.05 as traders digest recent soft US inflation figures on the consumer and producer sides.

USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical OutlookAfter clearing the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) by the end of July, the USD/MXN accelerated its downtrend to yearly lows. Worth noting that the market structure of lower-highs and lower-lows is respected, and a breach below the 17.00 figure could open the door for further downside.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the downtrend could be losing steam. Although USD/MXN drifts lower, the rate of change between sessions has narrowed, meaning that market participants remain reluctant to open fresh directional bets.

This could mean two things: first, that some consolidation lies ahead before the downtrend resumes to challenge the lower levels hit in 2024; or that USD/MXN could’ve found its floor and reversed course, aiming higher.

For the first scenario, if the USD/MXN clears below 17.00, this opens the path to challenge May’s 2024 monthly low of 16.52, followed by April’s 2024 low of the month at 16.26. Once those two levels are removed, the next support is at 16.00.

Conversely, if USD/MXN rises above the 50-day SMA at 17.38, followed by the 100-day SMA at 17.40, it could exacerbate a rally towards 17.50. On further strength, the next resistance is the 200-day SMA at 17.59.

USD/MXN Price Chart – Daily

USD/MXN daily chart Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

Japanese Yen Talking Points: It’s a cat and mouse game in USD/JPY as bulls are clawing back in the pair following the dual intervention two weeks ago. The pair had stalled just inside of 165 two weeks ago but bulls remained aggressive on pullbacks or at support, ultimately leading to the intervention order. But after the sell-off, is there a new line in the sand at 160, or is the BoJ going to react passively? Rumors of a BoJ rate hike in September have done little to deter buyers in the pair and inflation in Japan came in at 1.7%, so half of what just printed in the US at 3.4%. There’s not pressing demand for a rate hike right now other than to try to quell Yen weakness and markets seem to be sniffing that out already.

USD/JPY is up more than 400 pips from the lows of last week, and bulls are tip-toeing back into the pair. While there hasn’t been an emphatic breakout yet, there has been ardent defense of support and of recent that’s come in at higher-lows. This sets up for a dangerous backdrop, on both sides of the pair, as the carry remains positive for longs and the fundamental bias is still decisively-tilted against the Japanese Yen.

The 164/165 area is probably safe to assume as a hard line in the sand given that we’ve already seen an intervention at that price but perhaps the bigger question for now is whether the BoJ would respond to a test above 160.00 in USD/JPY. That’s the price that they defended back in April of 2024 and it was a level that got attention earlier in the year, leading into a ‘rate check’ from the US Treasury Department via the New York Federal Reserve.

Those normally happen from the Japanese side of the matter and the fact that the US Treasury Department and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were so interested in the matter is what makes our current situation so unique. Solo interventions have often failed, like the one in April of 2024. The BoJ buying yen and forcing a pullback into USD/JPY have, in essence, just created an opportunity for bulls to position-in at more favorable prices. But, historically, dual interventions have tended to show more success in stabilizing and even reversing exchange rates although there’s the very real question of funding from the US side as Scott Bessent’s approach two weeks ago came into question from Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, who Bessent later attacked and called him a ‘stenographer that relies on backroom gossip.’

Gossip and innuendo aside, like I said after the intervention long USD/JPY at 155.00 could make more sense as it seemed unlikely that we’d get an intervention there. And with the harboring expectation that the US will hike rates later this year there’s still rational for the carry trade, which means there’s still a need for hedges against JPY currency weakness.

For this week, the risk factor was US data and if that did show a cratering in inflation, then there could be rationale for longs to close, similar to episodes in November 2022 or 2023, or again in July of 2024. But that inflation remained well above target, even if below expectations for PPI and right at the expectation for CPI.

So, the question now is two-fold. The first is for how long might bulls be able to push? Traditionally this would be a gradual affair where buyers in the pair go for a little more and a little more until, eventually, they pose a breakout. It’s what happens after that matters as a failure from the BoJ to respond will lead to a stronger topside move as markets try to sniff out weakness. And secondly, if bulls do get beyond 160.00, are Bank of Japan officials standing by to try to swat down the move, similar to April of 2024?

At this point, a short-term ascending triangle can be argued in USD/JPY, which is a bullish breakout formation defined by horizontal resistance and a series of higher-lows. That high is showing below the 160.00 handle so as we go into late-week trade, we may see a push from bulls to get closer to that test of the big figure, and perhaps even a test beyond that, with the very real question as to whether policymakers from either economy will show more aggression this time.

USD/JPY Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY Beyond 160.00 The difficult part about interventions is often the subjectivity behind them. While USD/JPY broke out above 160 and ultimately stalled just below 165, it was the response after the FOMC meeting that ultimately compelled the BoJ to act.

And that response from markets that led to the intervention was one of persistence as a Fed-fueled dip was merely bought by bulls and even with USD weakness showing more prominently against the Euro or British Pound, USD/JPY still retained strength. It was the BoJ intervention later that night that began to shift matters and then the next morning, the US Treasury Department jumping in.

So, while 160.00 would be a logical place for a more aggressive defense, the fact of the matter is that we simply don’t know if that would be the line in the sand, because, after all, interventions are not ideal as it requires burning finite FX reserves to bid down an exchange rate that your own policy is encouraging.

And on the rate hike front, there’s not really pressing demand for that in Japan, where CPI is roughly half the level of that seen in the US. This, once again, speaks to the fundamental bias on the long side of the pair and it’s even more rationale for longs to continue accumulating save for the risk of intervention.

But, if we do see that test above 160 the next spot circled on my chart is 160.60, which is both a prior swing-high turned swing-low that’s confluent with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off. And the 38.2% retracement of that move is what caught the lows after the CPI print yesterday, inviting bulls to jump back in on the trend.

Remember what happened in 2022 – when the BoJ wanted to defend 150 but they waited, and by the time they did intervene price was at 151.95. If 160 gets taken out, the next move can happen very quickly.

USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Gold (XAU/USD) price declines on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) trims some of its earlier losses, as economic data in the US showed that the disinflation process continues, amid a moderately softening jobs market. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,365, down 1%, after reaching a daily high of $4,449.

XAU/USD retreats as traders digest softer US inflation and Fed splitStrangely, the yellow metal fails to capitalize on early US Dollar weakness, which so far has trimmed its earlier losses and is almost flat, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck versus six currencies, trades almost flat around the 100.00 milestone. 

US Treasury yields edged lower as market participants trimmed their Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bets following the release of July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down four basis points at 4.647%.

US PPI edged lower from 5.5% to 4.7% YoY. The Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, expanded 4.2% YoY as expected, down from 4.7% registered in June. At the same time, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose from 200K to 209K in the week ending August 8, exceeding forecasts for a 202K print.

Money markets had adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rates. Now traders see a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, while the odds of a hold have increased to 60%. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials remained split, with a camp seeking a rate increase and others, led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, calling for rates to remain steady.

Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said the US should raise rates to curb growth and inflation. She noted businesses are eager to borrow for investment in "growth opportunities,” but a rapid economic reacceleration could hinder disinflation.

Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said it's an “open question” if a rate hike is needed to meet inflation targets, noting inflationary pressures are from shocks that “should pass.”

On Friday, the US economic docket will feature the release of July Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

XAU/USD price forecast: Gold retreats below $4,400, eyes on 50-day SMAGold consolidates below the $4,400 threshold as traders rush to book profits, following the release of US data. Bullish momentum is fading, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is edging towards its 50-neutral level, suggesting buyers are losing steam.

Worth noting that XAU/USD has fallen to new three-day lows of $4,351, which could exacerbate a move lower. The next area of interest would be $4,300. Once breached, the next stop is the July 6 high at $4,202. Once cleared, the next key support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,145 and $4,100.

On the other hand, if the $4,400 mark is reclaimed, this paves the way to test the $4,450 psychological level. Breaking this could lead to the 200-day SMA at the $4,500 mark.

Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire details how the August gold breakout caught mainstream analysts off guard, as central banks and sovereign buyers accelerate their shift away from dollar debt and into physical gold at a new pace.

As Shanghai silver premiums hit 13% and Chinese demand surges back into the market, the precious metals expert outlines why both metals remain deeply attractive — and why the window to act ahead of a structural repricing is narrowing.

Timestamps:00:00 Start02:42 Why the August gold breakout was not about headlines, and what really drove it06:53 Central banks reducing dollar holdings in favour of physical gold11:08 How Project Enbridge and the yuan are building a non-dollar settlement system16:57 Why London's tokenised gold push is a structural mistake20:07 JP Morgan's strategy: concede the gold story publicly, contain it synthetically25:18 Short-term chart footprints and where institutional support is building33:39 Silver's breakout: what the premiums and ETF flows are signalling37:57 Why silver could double from current levels into year end

Key Points:EUR/USD moved higher as traders focused on U.S. economic reports. USD/CAD declined towards the support at 1.3920 - 1.3935 despite the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY remained stuck near the 159.50 level.

In this article:EUR/USD

+0.01%

EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD

-0.11%

GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD

-0.07%

USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY

+0.09%

USD/JPY Forecast

U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground As Traders Focus On Producer Prices Data

DXY 130826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00 as traders focus on Producer Prices report.

The report indicated that PPI was unchanged on a month-over-month basis in July, compared to analyst forecast of +0.2%. Core PPI increased by +0.2%, compared to analyst forecast os +0.3%.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report showed that 209,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 202,000.

In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 100.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.

EUR/USD Moved Higher As Euro Area Industrial Production Beat Estimates EUR/USD 130826 4h Chart EUR/USD gained some ground as traders focused on the Euro Area Industrial Production report. The report showed that Industrial Production was unchanged in June, compared to analyst consensus of -0.1%.

The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1510 – 1.1525 range. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1510 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.1435 – 1.1450.

GBP/USD Moved Lower Despite Strong GDP Data GBP/USD 130826 4h Chart GBP/USD pulled back despite the better-than-expected GDP Growth Rate report from the UK. The report indicated that UK GDP Growth Rate was +1.2% in the second quarter, compared to anlayst forecast of +1.1%.

Traders also focused on the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production reports. Industrial Production declined by -0.2% month-over-month in june, compared to anlayst forecast of +0.1%. Manufacturing Production decreased by -0.5%, while anlaysts expected that it would decline by -0.2%.

A successful test of the support level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3335 – 1.3350. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Remained Stuck Near Support At 1.3920 – 1.3935 USD/CAD 130826 4h Chart USD/CAD moved away from session highs despite the pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined towards the $4350 level, while silver settled back below $65.00. Other commodity-related currencies moved lower in today’s trading session.

Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle back below the support level at 1.3920 – 1.3935. In case USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3920 level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3825 – 1.3840.

USD/JPY Settled Near The 159.50 Level USD/JPY 130826 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck below the key resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00 as traders ignored the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.65%.

Analysts expect that BoJ will raise rates at the next meeting in September, but these expectations do not provide support to the Japanese currency.

If USD/JPY moves above the 160.00 level, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00. The key question is whether BoJ is ready to intervene again in case USD/JPY climbs above the psychologically important 160.00 level.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

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Summary:

AUD/JPY rose for seven straight sessions but slipped about 0.2% today as the yen strengthened on intervention fears and BoJ hike expectations Japan and the US conducted a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention in early August, the first such joint action since 2011 The wide Australia-Japan interest-rate gap still underpins the carry trade. However, there is a rising likelihood of a near-term volatility from policy signals The Australian dollar’s recent upward trend against the Japanese yen has been a significant topic in foreign exchange markets. A seven-session winning streak is a notable achievement for any currency pair, particularly one often viewed as an indicator of market risk sentiment.

However, this streak ended today. The AUD/JPY pair saw a decline of approximately 0.2% during New York trading, settling around 112.37 compared to a previous close of 112.60. This shift raises questions about the underlying causes and whether this marks a more substantial change or a temporary pullback.

Yen Intervention Risk Hasn’t Gone Away The most important piece of context here is what happened just two weeks ago. Japan and the United States confirmed a rare, coordinated yen-buying intervention, aiming to stop the currency’s slide to 40-year lows. Tokyo signaled it’s ready to act again if needed.

This wasn’t just any intervention. It was the first joint effort since 2011, and the market can’t simply ignore it. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced that message, stating Washington “won’t hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.” He also pushed for more rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. That combination creates a persistent headwind for anyone holding long AUD/JPY positions.

The yen also strengthened after traders looked at the Bank of Japan’s recent Summary of Opinions. BoJ members pointed out growing risks of domestic inflation, leading some to think that Japanese officials might raise interest rates again, possibly in September.

What Does This Mean for the Carry Trade? AUD/JPY has long been a favourite among carry traders. AUD/JPY has long been a favorite among carry traders. This strategy works best when Australian rates stay high (or rise) and the yen remains weak and stable. Today’s price action suggests both pillars are wobbling a bit.

It looks like the period of easy gains during the rally might be turning into a trading range. As the BoJ moves closer to normalizing its policies and yields on long-term Japanese government bonds rise, the net return from the interest rate difference becomes less protected from sudden currency dips.

How to Position From Here? None of this necessarily signals the rally is over. Seven consecutive days of gains represent a strong upward move, and a single 0.2% dip is within the normal range for profit-taking. However, traders should now consider the risk of intervention as a consistent element for this currency pair, rather than an isolated event.

This suggests adopting tighter stop-losses and smaller position sizes for any new long entries, rather than aggressively pursuing new highs. Longer-term investors who can tolerate market fluctuations may still find the interest rate differential appealing. It is advisable to maintain strict stop-losses around upcoming speeches by Reserve Bank of Australia officials and releases of Japanese inflation data to mitigate potential volatility.

Why did AUD/JPY fall about 0.2% today after seven session gains?

The Japanese yen got a slight lift today. New intervention warnings surfaced, and people are increasingly expecting a Bank of Japan rate hike this September.

What still supports the AUD/JPY carry trade?

Australia’s cash rate is higher than Japan’s policy rate, creating a big interest-rate difference. This still makes holding the Australian dollar attractive.

How significant is the recent US-Japan intervention?

That coordinated action in late July did give the yen a short-term boost, but its impact has mostly faded. The carry trade now looks attractive once more.

Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold is easing on Thursday after hitting its highest level since June 5 earlier in the session. Shortly after the opening, it overcame a 50% level to trade to $4,449.83. The rally stopped short of $4,481.78 and $4,501.24.

The first resistance at $4,481.78 represents 20% down from the all-time high. Classical analysts say this is where the bear market began. Overtaking it could mean the bear market is over, but it will not mean a new bull market is beginning. The 200-day moving average at $4,501.24 could be either resistance or a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.

More important than the upside targets, in my opinion, is the potential support cluster at $4,195.96 to $4,136.05, which includes the 50-day moving average at $4,146.29.

The market is currently forming a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. We will not know until the close, but if it does, it will be the second this week. This could be a sign that traders are selling rallies.

Daily September Crude Oil Futures WTI near $82 and Brent near $87.70 are both down more than 1% Thursday. OPEC and the IEA both cut demand forecasts this week. Lower crude on a weekly basis takes pressure off headline inflation, and that supports the case for a Fed hold in September.

The oil decline helps gold at the margin. It does not close the inflation door. Crude is still well above the levels it traded before the Hormuz conflict started. The strait remains restricted. Houthi attacks continue on alternative shipping routes. Fed officials have said repeatedly that they are watching energy costs, and oil staying elevated even on a down day keeps that part of the argument from going away completely.

Gold is getting a friendlier inflation backdrop from cheaper crude. It is not getting an all-clear signal.

What to Watch Gold got two soft inflation reports, lower yields and falling hike odds this week and could not sustain a move above $4,400. The market ran hard from last week’s payrolls miss through Wednesday’s CPI high and Thursday proved the buyers who drove that move are taking profits. Retail sales Friday is the last major data point of the week. A weak number reinforces the case for a Fed hold and gives gold another chance to stabilize. The dollar near a two-week high is the obstacle that has to give way before the next leg higher has room.

A second closing price reversal top this week would confirm the pattern of sellers showing up at resistance. Gold reached $4,449.83 Thursday and stalled well short of the $4,481 level where the bear market began and the 200-day moving average just above it. On the downside, the support cluster near the 50-day moving average at $4,146 is where buyers need to show up if the correction extends beyond profit-taking. The range between those zones is wide, and the close Thursday will tell you which side has control heading into Friday.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Silver continues to hover around the 200-day EMA on Thursday as we are simply waiting for the next move to be made, most likely with external influence.

Silver Technical Analysis

Silver futures trade at $65.18, sitting between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs with resistance at $70. Source: TradingView Silver continues to hover around the 200-day EMA on Thursday as we are just simply waiting for the next move. A lot of what we’re seeing here will be influenced by the interest rates in America, which are currently drifting a little bit lower. Generally speaking, that helps silver, but at this point in time, we also have to worry about the situation in the Middle East, because that will greatly influence things like the interest rate market.

The 200-day EMA is an indicator that a lot of longer-term traders will be watching, and the fact that we are stalling here after a recent recovery probably isn’t a huge surprise. Breaking above the $65.50 level would be a big victory in the short term, perhaps opening up the possibility of a challenge of the $70 level. This is a level that would more likely than not get some interest from a headline perspective.

Inflection Point and Key Support Levels If we break down below the 50-day EMA, though, that could be negative, opening up a drop towards the $60 level. All things being equal, this is a market that is at an inflection point, at least short-term, and will be worth watching. We need to see some type of momentum in one direction or the other to get any type of real read on the market, but right now, it certainly looks like choppiness and a little bit of hesitation is exactly the way I would describe this market over the last three days or so. Ultimately, we are waiting for some kind of clarity to get moving again.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to one and all! All ends well for my beloved Cardinals yesterday as they beat a great pitcher and the Phillies 7-1... They won 2 of 3 from the team ahead of them for the playoffs... So, a step in the right direction... It was very hot here yesterday, thus making that 3 consecutive days of dangerous heat... I like it hot, but this is too hot for even me! So, I haven't been outside to read, and I feel like something's awry... The Friends of Distinction greet me this morning with their 60's song: Grazing In The Grass

So, all the thoughts of a rate cut, have just about disappeared, and with it so does the beating down of the dollar... The dollar gained 1 index point yesterday and now has gained back all the index points it lost last Friday as it closed yesterday at 1,204... I knew in my heart of hearts that the loss the dollar took last week wouldn't last long, as it was built on a house of cards, thinking that they might be a rate cut....

The price of Gold gained yesterday, but Silver couldn't find a bid as the SPTs took it down for the day by 40-cents... Gold gained $41 on the day and closed at $4,410... Silver closed at $65.41... Still even with the STPs doing their business with Silver, Silver has recovered nicely from where the SPTs sent it a couple of weeks ago... 

The SUPID CPI played with the markets some yesterday... In July, the quants calculated that the STUPID CPI came in at 3.4% VS last year, that's a .1% drop, but the monthly STUPID CPI had gained .1%, so if I were their boss and they came to me with these levels, I would ask them to explain how in the hell did the monthly rate go up .1% the VS a year earlier it fell .1%? After stumbling around and hemming and hawing they wouldn't have an answer because they didn't know....  

So, the annual rate of 3.4% played with the rate hike folks... And made them question their status, and that helped Gold to gain.. '

In the overnight markets last night... The dollar ran into a roadblock and saw some selling with the BBDXY down 1 index point at 1,203 this morning... The dollar could be subject to a lot of back and forth in its price today, as the data cupboard is interesting...  

Gold/Silver are seeing some selling this morning, as the SPTs are at it again... Gold is down $25 and Silver is down 41-cents to start the day, with the SPTs working on their shorts to affect the prices negatively. 

The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight and starts today with an $81 handle. And the 10-Year remained at 4.66% yield overnight. 

I saw this on Zerohedge.com "With mortgage rates rising and the 'low hire, no fire' economy leaving many anxious about their household finances, the ugly spring selling season has not been followed by a consistent rebound in existing home sales in the U.S.

After falling 1.4% MoM in June (revised up from a 2.4% MoM decline), U.S. existing home sales fell again -1.7% MoM in July (worse than the -1.0% MoM expected). This dragged the annual increase in sales down to just 0.74% YoY..."

Chuck Again.... you could have bet your bottom dollar that rising mortgage rates were going to be a problem for housing.... And so, it appears to be... 

I didn't intend to start today's letter with data prints, but they did play hell for the markets yesterday, so they got top billing... 

Well, I can't get this out of my mind. The thought that China keeps buying physical Gold while the U.S. plays with paper money... I think the horde of Gold that China has is greater than that of the U.S. which is 8,000 tons... (supposedly they still have that much) Think about that for a minute... China buys physical Gold just about every day and the U.S. bleeds dollar bills.... Yes, the dollar is still the reserve currency of the world... But, if I had my druthers I would choose China over the paper world of the U.S.   

Longtime Pfennig Reader, Bob, forwarded an email to me that told me that China has built a Laser-Powered Grid that transmits electricity through the air..... The U.S. has copper wires that link from A to B, while the Chinese have a laser light carrying electricity to A and B.... 

Now, I don't know if this is true or not, but if it is true, and with the advances made in today's world, why wouldn't I believe it? But if it's true than the Chinese have got something...

My friend, and editor of 5 Bullets, David Gonigam has good piece in his letter yesterday regarding AI and how they will be seeking a taxpayer bailout soon... here's David: "Slowly, inexorably, the path is becoming clear: The AI industry will be asking for a taxpayer bailout next year. Or, at the latest, 2028."

Chuck again... this just rankles me to no end... These companies have been spending like drunken tourists and now that they haven't turned profit, they ask for a bailout.... I just get so darn mad at these companies... But it'll do no good, they'll get it and move on as if they didn't need it, when we all know better than that... Taxpayer bailouts are a bugaboo of mine... I think you can tell... 

The euro is still trying to recover, after the U.S. sold $10 Billion worth of the currency to buy yen... I just can't get over this, and you shouldn't either! The fact that we did this is bad enough in my opinion, but add in that we didn't even alert the European Central Bank adds salt to the wound... It will take a while for the euro to recover and get back to gaining VS the dollar, so patience my friend....

The U.S. Data Cupboard had yesterday's STUPID CPI and the previous day had the Existing Home Sales that we talked about above... Today's Cupboard has the July PPI (wholesale inflation) and the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims... The Jobless Claims had reached a level below 200,000 last week for the first time in month of Blue Moons.... So, it will be interesting to see if the number is above or below 200,000... 

And some things never change... The U.S. budget deficit soared to its highest monthly level in more than five years amid a surge in Medicare costs and as interest on the federal debt continued to weigh on the nation’s fiscal picture, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday.

In addition to the big single-month jump, the collective red ink across the first 10 months of the government’s fiscal year rose to nearly $1.8 trillion and surpassed the same period in 2025.

The July shortfall totaled $432.3 billion, up some 48% from the same period a year ago and the largest monthly deficit since March 2021. Geez Louise, this is getting to be too much for one country to bear.... 

To recap... The dollar has gained back all of its losses from last Friday as the rate cut folks have cowered into the corner and hid from the masses... Gold found a bid on Wednesday, but Silver struggled with the SPTs showing who's boss... The STUPID CPI was a bunch of bunk but played with the markets. And we're still hitting the till, with the monthly Budget Deficit making a high that hasn't been reached since March 2021... 

For What It's Worth... Man, to find a FWIW article this morning was like looking for a needle in a haystack... But, I did find one...

Here's your snippet:"Gold, when combined with other asset classes, can be a valuable component of a diversified retirement portfolio.

By allocating a share of your retirement savings to physical metals, you can enhance financial resilience and better safeguard your purchasing power as you move toward retirement.

But, before opening an account or buying IRA-eligible bullion, you need to start by asking questions that clarify the strategy, costs, rules, storage arrangements, and service you can expect.

Here's a simple checklist to prepare you for this step in your retirement strategy...

1. What role do precious metals play in my overall portfolio?

Are you looking for a diversifier, a potential hedge against inflation, or a way to reduce reliance on purely paper holdings? Defining the purpose of the allocation can help you decide whether a precious metals IRA is appropriate and how it may fit within your broader retirement plan.

In general, we recommend adding precious metals to a self-directed IRA after you have met your allocation of core holdings in gold, so that your core holdings are easily accessible in case of an emergency. A precious metals IRA is part of your longer-term strategy.

2. How much of my retirement portfolio should I consider allocating?

There is no universal allocation that fits every investor. Your time horizon, risk tolerance, existing holdings, income needs, and retirement objectives should all be considered. But don't put all your nest eggs in one basket!

A diverse retirement portfolio is essential, and this is precisely why gold and other precious metals can be so useful when held in combination with other asset classes. Gold and silver prices tend to move independently (low correlation) of stocks and bonds, which helps balance risk and can stabilize a portfolio during economic downturns.

3. Should I consider gold, silver, platinum, palladium, or a combination?

Each metal has different supply, demand, market, and industrial-use characteristics. Ask how the proposed metal mix supports your objectives and whether it aligns with your overall portfolio strategy. Most investors start with an allocation to gold, and add other precious metals to increase the diversification."

Chuck Again... obviously I couldn't list all 17, you'll have to click on the link above to see what the entire list has in store for you... But, you get the idea that starting a Gold IRA isn't just deciding that you want one.... 

Market Prices 8/13/2026: American Style: A$.7054, kiwi .5845, C$ .7173, euro 1.1536, sterling 1.3495, Swiss $1.2310, European Style: rand 16.1246, krone 9.5087, SEK 9.4804, forint 314.53, zloty 3.7321, koruna 21.0000, RUB 84.01, yen 159.30, sing 1.2799, HKD 7.8468, INR 95.44, China 6.7450, peso 17.05, BRL 5.1768, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 99.89, Oil $81.67, 10-year 4.66%, Silver $65.01, Platinum $1,734.00, Palladium $1,364.00, Copper $6.58, and Gold... $4,385.

That's It for today... Well, my beloved Cardinals now go on a 3-city road trip, how they come home from that will decide if they are be taken seriously among the Playoff contenders or not.... The excitement around the start of Mizzou's Football Season is high; they've already announced the singer of the Anthem at the first game: Sheryl Crow! She of course used to be a Mizzou student! My wife is going to the Muny tonight, so I'll be batching this evening... I hope it's not one of those nights as the song suggests. Blind Faith takes us to the finish line today with their great song: Can't Find My Way Home.... I hope you have a Tub Thumpin' Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!

Gold and silver are approaching important technical resistance levels following a strong rebound from yearly lows, over 400 points, while the US Dollar Index is testing the boundaries of its 2026 uptrend after its latest pullback near 99.30.

The combination is creating an increasingly important intermarket setup: precious metals are showing stretched daily momentum just as the dollar attempts to stabilize, raising the risk of a short-term reversal before the longer-term trends become clearer.

At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuating Federal Reserve rate expectations continue to influence the outlook across currencies, precious metals, and broader risk assets.

Key Catalysts Moving Markets Several macro and technical factors are converging as markets approach levels that could help define the dominant trends heading toward Q4 2026:

Federal Reserve expectations: Rate expectations continue to fluctuate, with markets facing further uncertainty ahead of the next US Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI reports due before the September Fed meeting. US-Iran tensions: Iran has indicated that no meaningful progress has been made in negotiations with the US, keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated around Strait of Hormuz shipping and global energy markets. US Dollar resilience: The US Dollar Index continues to hold its broader 2026 uptrend, while USD/JPY is once again approaching the psychologically important 160 region. US equity momentum: Major US indices are trading with increasingly stretched longer-term momentum, raising the risk of short-term consolidation or corrective moves. Precious metals: Gold and silver are testing the projected targets of their June-August consolidation breakouts while daily momentum pushes deeper into overbought territory. Given the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, shifting Fed expectations, and increasingly stretched momentum, several markets are now testing technical tipping points that could define their dominant trends heading into Q4.

Gold Outlook: Another Long-Term Bullish Leg? Gold Price Outlook: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

From a six-month perspective, gold continues to rebound from one of its most significant long-term technical confluence zones in decades.

The area combines several important structural signals:

The 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. The long-term trendline connecting major highs between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has transitioned into one of gold's most important long-term support areas in 2026. The completion of a six-month shooting-star reversal pattern, highlighting the significance of the corrective risks that emerged following the record highs earlier this year. Given the importance of this technical confluence and the fragile US-Iran geopolitical backdrop, the longer-term structure remains particularly sensitive to the 3,930 support level.

A sustained break below 3,930 and the broader confluence zone would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 3,500-3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025.

Conversely, continued stabilization above this long-term support structure would preserve the broader bullish case, although short-term momentum conditions suggest another corrective phase may develop before confidence in a sustained long-term advance strengthens.

Gold Short-Term Trading Outlook Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

From a daily perspective, gold is holding near the projected target of the June-August contracting consolidation breakout around 4,400, while remaining above the descending resistance that had guided price action since March 2026.

The breakout keeps the broader recovery structure intact, but increasingly stretched momentum raises the risk of a short-term pullback.

Gold Bullish Scenario A sustained break above 4,470 would shift both the short- and longer-term outlooks further in favor of buyers.

The level aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline, making it an important threshold for determining whether the current recovery can develop into a broader bullish advance.

A sustained move above 4,470 would expose:

4,530: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. 4,700: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. 4,900: 100% retracement and the final major technical test before confidence in a longer-term bullish continuation strengthens considerably. However, the daily RSI continues to push deeper into overbought territory, reaching levels last seen in January 2026 when gold was approaching its 5,600 record high.

This does not invalidate the bullish breakout, but it does increase the probability of short-term consolidation or a corrective pullback before another potential upside extension.

Gold Bearish Scenario On the downside, a break below 4,300 and 4,200 would weaken short-term momentum and expose the 4,140-4,160 region as another potential dip-buying zone.

Should this area fail to hold, gold could retest the broader 4,050-3,960-3,930 support zone.

A sustained breakdown below this region would reactivate the broader bearish scenario and expose:

3,880-3,840: Corresponding with the October 2025 lows. 3,700 3,500-3,460: The well-respected five-month resistance zone from 2025 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 secular advance. These longer-term support zones could provide significant reversal opportunities should a deeper correction develop.

As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, volatility and downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.

Silver Outlook: Another Long-Term Bullish Leg? Silver Price Outlook: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Silver's six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments following the sharp correction from its 2026 highs.

The broader structure includes:

A six-month shooting-star reversal candle, reflecting the strong rejection from record territory. A hold near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. A test of the multi-decade trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 1980 and 2024. This long-term trendline is particularly important. After acting as structural resistance for decades, it could transition into major support should silver experience another breakdown below $55.

The broader support region between approximately $50 and $46 also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the longer-term advance.

Should another corrective leg develop this year, this confluence could therefore represent an important long-term area to monitor for stabilization and a potential rebuilding of bullish momentum.

Silver Short-Term Trading Outlook Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

From a daily perspective, silver is consolidating near the projected target of its June-August contracting consolidation breakout around $67.

The level also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June decline, increasing its importance as short-term resistance.

At the same time, daily momentum has pushed into overbought territory at levels last seen in May and January 2026, increasing the risk of consolidation or a short-term corrective move.

Silver Bullish Scenario A sustained breakout above $67 would strengthen the bullish recovery and expose the next Fibonacci resistance levels:

$70: 61.8% retracement. $74: 78.6% retracement. $79: 100% retracement. The $79 region would represent the final major technical test before confidence in a broader long-term bullish continuation strengthens.

Silver Bearish Scenario On the downside, a break back below the former resistance levels at $64, $61, and $60 would signal a deterioration in short-term momentum and increase the risk of a retest of the 2026 lows near $55.

A sustained breakdown below approximately $55.50 would expose the longer-term $50-$46 support region highlighted on the six-month chart.

Given the significance of this multi-decade technical confluence, the region could become an important area to monitor for stabilization should a deeper silver correction unfold.

US Dollar Index: The Key Intermarket Signal The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains one of the most important benchmarks for both foreign exchange and precious metals as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.

Despite its recent drawdown, DXY remains within the broader uptrend that has defined its 2026 advance.

Two levels remain particularly important:

101.80-102.00 resistance: A sustained breakout above this zone would strengthen the bullish dollar outlook and potentially increase downside and volatility risks across major currencies, gold, and silver. 99.30 support: A sustained breakdown below this level would weaken the 2026 bullish dollar structure and could provide additional support for currencies and precious metals. With USD/JPY also approaching the 160 region, the behavior of the dollar around these technical levels could provide important confirmation for the next move across precious metals.

With Fed expectations, geopolitical tensions, energy-market risks, and technical momentum all converging, short-term reversal risks remain elevated even as the longer-term precious-metals recovery remains technically intact.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower around $64.90 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.64% on the day. The white metal consolidates after its recent advance as investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of the release of US producer inflation data. Despite the pullback, easing expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to provide support for Silver.

The latest United States (US) inflation data reinforced the view that price pressures are gradually easing. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.4% YoY in July from 3.5% in June. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, eased to 2.5% from 2.6% previously, in line with expectations.

These figures reduce the need for the Fed to raise interest rates quickly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 38% chance of a rate hike in September, down from 54% a week earlier. This reassessment of the monetary policy outlook is also weighing on short-term US Treasury yields, an environment that generally benefits non-yielding assets such as Silver.

Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Another sign of easing inflationary pressures could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged and support Silver. Conversely, an upside surprise in producer prices could revive expectations of further monetary tightening and put additional pressure on the white metal.

XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.88, holding above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $64.78 and the 200-period SMA at $62.41, which keeps the near-term bias constructive despite the recent pullback from the mid-$66s. The loss of momentum is reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing toward the mid-40s, hinting at a consolidative phase rather than outright bearish pressure while price remains supported by these underlying averages.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-period SMA around $64.78, ahead of the horizontal floor near $63.00 and the deeper structural base provided by the 200-period SMA at $62.41. On the topside, XAG/USD would need to reclaim the former uptrend support line turned barrier around $66.65, followed by the horizontal resistance near $66.80, to revive the bullish sequence toward fresh highs.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The British Pound (GBP) claws back its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) and flattens at around 1.3495 during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure with investors prioritizing easing fears of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes in the near term over ongoing Middle East tensions.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 99.90.

Traders have trimmed Fed interest rate hike bets due to easing United States (US) upside inflation risks and growing downside labor market risks.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in the September meeting have increased to almost 60% from 30.4% seen a month ago.

US inflation data seen as broadly in line, giving the Fed room to stay on holdAnalysts at Commerzbank note that "July US CPI came in broadly in line with expectations," with the report indicating that "underlying inflation remains above the Fed's target but showed no broad-based re-acceleration, giving policymakers more room to remain on hold." Echoing that assessment, the Danske Bank research team highlights that "in the US, July CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y and core inflation at 2.5% y/y." They add that "the monthly details were also close to expectations, as headline inflation increased 0.1% m/m and core inflation increased 0.2% m/m," reinforcing the view that inflation is moving closer to target-consistent levels without signs of renewed upward momentum.

Going forward, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The headline and the core PPI growth are expected to have cooled down to 4.9% and 4.2% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively.

Meanwhile, the recovery move in GBP/USD seems to be supported by the British currency too. The United Kingdom (UK) currency attracted bids after the release of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data during the day.

UK growth beats expectations but fails to shift BoE outlookAccording to TD Securities, "UK GDP surprised to the upside in June, coming in at 0.3% m/m (TDS: 0.0%; mkt: -0.1%; prior: 0.0%), and driven by strength in the services sector of 0.4% m/m (TDS/mkt: 0.0%; prior: 0.1%)." The bank notes that services growth was "broad-based, with only wholesale trade showing any real contraction." Despite the stronger monthly print, TD points out that "ultimately though, on a quarterly basis, UK economy grew in line with market expectations of 0.4% q/q, which is just above the BoE projections of 0.3% q/q," suggesting the upside surprise does little to alter the broader policy narrative.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3491. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot advances above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3441 and above the broken downward resistance trend line, now acting as support around 1.3457. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 58.5 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, which suggests steady upside momentum while the recent breakout above the trend barrier is being defended.

On the downside, immediate support is clustered between the trend-line break at 1.3457 and the 20-period EMA at 1.3441, with the current price area around 1.3491 acting as a near-term pivot. As long as GBP/USD holds above this support band, bulls could look for the pair to consolidate gains and extend the advance, while a daily close back below 1.3457 would hint at a false break and expose the EMA area as the next line of defense.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

The US Dollar (USD) remains practically flat against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, as fading hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September have undermined speculative demand for the Greenback. The USD/JPY pair maintains its near-term upside trend intact, yet with bulls capped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of July’s sell-off, at the 159.50 area.

Analysts at TD Securities highlight that "near-term inflation risks still skew higher, but Fed can be patient," noting that "markets moderately lowered hike pricing, but we are not in the clear just yet."

In the currency space, TD observes that "USD traded weaker as in-line CPI release still preserved bearish USD momentum," underscoring that the latest data have done little to disrupt the prevailing negative bias toward the Dollar.

Technical Analysis: US Dollar remains bullish but momentum fades

From a technical perspective, USD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias, although intra-day momentum indicators reflect fading upside traction. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) at 57.22 leans constructive, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening near the zero line, suggesting that buyers might be starting to give up.

The 50% Fibonacci retracement of late July's intervention-induced decline, at the 159.50 area, is capping upside attempts for now, closing the path towards the 160.00 psychological area, considered a line in the sand for Tokyo authorities, and the July 31 highs, near 160.90.

On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upswing at 158.53 is containing downside attempts for now. Further down, the August 4 and 5 lows, near 157.30, and the cluster around the 23.6% retracement at 157.28 are likely to challenge bears.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%0.02%-0.06%0.01%0.11%0.27%-0.22%EUR0.09%0.12%0.02%0.07%0.22%0.35%-0.12%GBP-0.02%-0.12%-0.06%0.00%0.11%0.24%-0.25%JPY0.06%-0.02%0.06%0.05%0.18%0.28%-0.18%CAD-0.01%-0.07%0.00%-0.05%0.12%0.26%-0.23%AUD-0.11%-0.22%-0.11%-0.18%-0.12%0.14%-0.34%NZD-0.27%-0.35%-0.24%-0.28%-0.26%-0.14%-0.46%CHF0.22%0.12%0.25%0.18%0.23%0.34%0.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

XAU/USDGold price edged lower from new 9-week high in early Thursday trading as positive impact from lower inflation in July started to fade while investors focus on US Producer Price Index data (due later today) which would provide more details about the Fed’s policy outlook.

Recent strong acceleration higher started to show signs of fatigue after a triple failure to register daily close above cracked Fibo barrier at $4416 (50% retracement of $4889/$3942 bear-leg), with stretched daily studies contributing to scenario.

On the other hand, near-term action holds above the top of daily Ichimoku cloud ($4358) for the third consecutive day that keeps bulls intact for renewed attacks.

Firm break of $4416 pivot to generate initial signal of bullish continuation and expose next targets at $4501 (200DMA) and $4527 (Fibo 61.8%).

Conversely, violation of cloud top would risk further easing, with extended dips to find firm ground at $4260 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $3960/$4449 / rising 10DMA) to mark a heathy correction before bulls regain control.

US PPI is expected to ease significantly in July that may provide fresh impetus to the metal’s price (US July PPI 4.9% f/c vs June 5.5%; Core July 4.2% f/c vs June 4.7%) on release at or below expectations.

Res: 4416; 4449; 4501; 4502.
Sup: 4358; 4304; 4260; 4203.

ING’s Francesco Pesole keeps a constructive stance on EUR/USD after recent US data, based on a view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to deliver further tightening. He targets 1.160 in coming weeks, 1.17 in autumn and 1.18 by year‑end, while warning that the lack of clear catalysts and Gulf risks could keep EUR/USD confined to tight ranges and low volatility.

Upside targets but tight trading ranges"We retain a preference for EUR/USD upside following the latest US data. That view is rooted in our Fed assessment outlined above, though it must be balanced against the risk that renewed escalation in the Gulf could provide fresh support to the dollar."

"Our target for the coming weeks remains 1.1600, followed by 1.1700 in autumn and 1.1800 by year-end. The absence of a clear catalyst, however, may keep EUR/USD range-bound for longer, while vols test recent lows."

"We will be watching closely for another test of 1.1500. Our bias is that buyers would re-emerge there, potentially nudging the dominant trading range higher to 1.1500-1.1600."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

USD/JPY is holding its rebound near the 160 level, testing the possibility of reclaiming its 2026 uptrend as the US Dollar Index maintains its broader bullish structure.

In contrast, US equity indices are showing signs of slowing momentum. The Dow Jones is consolidating near the upper boundary of its 2022-2026 ascending channel and below the 54,700 record resistance, while longer-term momentum is flashing overbought conditions last seen in 2018.

The divergence between a resilient US dollar and increasingly stretched equity markets raises the risk of a short-term pullback across risk assets, particularly as geopolitical uncertainty remains a dominant market driver heading toward Q4.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.

The latest US CPI report showed headline inflation easing to the expected 3.4%, providing little reason for markets to materially reassess the Federal Reserve outlook. However, another inflation report and employment report are still due before the September Fed meeting, leaving the policy outlook sensitive to incoming data.

Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Crude oil continues to trade at elevated levels above the broader $70-$80 region, while the US dollar remains supported. Together, these conditions maintain short-term downside risks across major currency pairs, risk assets, and precious metals, while potentially supporting further upside across US dollar pairs.

Against this backdrop, USD/JPY and the Dow Jones are approaching technical levels that could help define the next directional move.

USD/JPY Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

USD/JPY has rebounded strongly after its pullback from the 164.00 confluence zone, an important resistance area aligning with the midpoint of the April 2025-July 2026 channel and the broader 2022-2026 ascending structure.

The decline found support near 155.00, where several technical signals converged:

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-July 2026 advance. Daily momentum reaching oversold conditions last seen in 2024. The breakdown area around the 2025-2026 ascending channel. The rebound from this confluence has returned attention to the 159.50-160.00 region.

Should USD/JPY stabilize above 159.50 and reclaim 160.00, bullish momentum could strengthen, exposing 161.00, 161.80, and eventually 164.00.

These former technical levels may now act as resistance as the pair once again approaches price levels not seen since the 1980s.

A sustained breakout above 164.00 would represent a significant technical development, potentially opening the path toward the upper boundary of the broader ascending channel near 170, although such a move would likely require a substantial rebuilding of upside momentum.

Conversely, another rejection from the 159.50-160.00 region followed by a close below 155.00 would weaken the rebound and expose the next support levels at 152.00 and 149.00.

The latter remains a particularly important region, aligning with the lower boundary of the 2022-2026 channel and potentially defining the longer-term bullish versus bearish structure for USD/JPY.

From a broader intermarket perspective, the bullish dollar bias remains supported while geopolitical risks persist, DXY holds above its key 99.30 support, US Treasury yields remain elevated, and expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening remain in play.

A durable framework governing Middle East shipping routes, a DXY breakdown below 99.30, falling Treasury yields, and a further reduction in Fed tightening expectations would weaken that bullish case.

Dow Jones Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Both the weekly and monthly Dow Jones charts suggest that upside momentum is becoming increasingly stretched, with the index consolidating near a major long-term technical confluence.

The key resistance area combines:

The upper boundary of the ascending channel that has guided price action since 2022. The 100% Fibonacci extension of the April 2025-January 2026-March 2026 price cycle near 54,700. Longer-term overbought momentum conditions, increasing the risk of a corrective move if buyers fail to secure a breakout. From a fundamental perspective, optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement has helped improve market sentiment. However, a lasting framework has yet to be established.

Geopolitical risk premiums therefore remain embedded across financial markets, leaving the Dow's rally vulnerable while the index remains below its major resistance zone.

A decisive breakout above 54,700-55,000 would strengthen the longer-term bullish outlook and signal that buyers remain in control despite stretched momentum.

Conversely, failure to clear this resistance could encourage profit-taking and a corrective pullback.

Should a deeper decline develop, the August low near 52,400-52,200 represents the next major support region, aligning approximately with the 23.6%-27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-August advance.

Shorter-term levels provide additional clues about which scenario may develop first.

Dow Jones Outlook: 4-Hour Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

From a four-hour perspective, the Dow's consolidation is approaching a critical contraction point within what resembles a descending triangle formation.

The first downside trigger sits near 53,700.

A confirmed breakdown below this level would expose:

53,400, near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August advance. 53,000, near the 50% retracement and the approximate target of the descending-triangle breakdown. A sustained break below 53,000 would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward the broader rising support connecting the higher lows established since April 2026, currently near 52,100.

This would also bring the 52,400-52,200 weekly support region back into focus.

On the upside, a bullish breakout from the consolidation above 54,000-54,200 would shift attention back toward the record high near 54,700.

That level remains critical.

Another rejection from 54,700 could reinforce short-term pullback risks, while a sustained breakout above the record high and ultimately 55,000 could open the path toward another longer-term advance.

Such a breakout would likely gain additional confirmation from an improving risk-on environment, easing geopolitical tensions, and a less hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook.

USD/JPY and Dow Jones Outlook: Key Levels to Watch For now, the two markets are sending contrasting signals.

USD/JPY continues to rebuild bullish momentum toward 160, supported by broader US dollar resilience, while the Dow Jones remains near record highs but is showing increasingly stretched momentum beneath major long-term resistance.

For USD/JPY, 159.50-160.00 is the immediate upside test, followed by 161.00, 161.80, and 164.00. A move back below 155.00 would instead weaken the recovery.

For the Dow, 53,700 represents the first short-term downside trigger, while 54,700-55,000 remains the defining resistance zone for the longer-term bullish scenario.

Until these levels are decisively resolved, short-term pullback risks across risk assets remain elevated, while the US dollar retains a relatively stronger technical bias.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

The US dollar strengthened against commodity currencies following the release of July US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.4%, exactly in line with forecasts and down from the previous 3.5%, while prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month. Core inflation also matched expectations, at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Despite the continued easing in price pressures, the report did not deliver any additional disinflationary surprise to the market. Inflation is gradually moving towards the Fed’s target, but the current pace of decline is still insufficient to significantly strengthen expectations of an imminent easing of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the US dollar managed to recover some of its earlier losses.

USD/CAD In USD/CAD, a bullish engulfing pattern is forming after a test of the key support level around 1.3900. Technical analysis of USD/CAD points to the possibility of a move higher towards 1.3980–1.4000. A break below yesterday’s low could trigger a resumption of the downtrend, with potential targets in the 1.3770–1.3840 area.

Key events for USD/CAD:

today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI); today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims; today at 15:40 (GMT+3): speech by Thomas Barkin, member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

AUD/USD AUD/USD buyers attempted to test the key resistance level around 0.7100 today. The attempt failed, with the price retreating sharply from the level and forming a doji pattern. The appearance of a doji near resistance indicates buyer indecision and increases the likelihood of a corrective decline towards 0.7020–0.7040. The bearish scenario would be invalidated by a firm break and close above 0.7100.

Key events for AUD/USD:

tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock; tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australian housing finance data; tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core retail sales.

Overall, the inflation data allowed the US dollar to recover some of its earlier losses, but did not provide the market with sufficient grounds for a new sustained move. The further dynamics of AUD/USD and USD/CAD will depend on today’s US producer-price and labour-market data. Stronger-than-expected figures could support the US dollar and increase pressure on commodity currencies, while weaker data could revive expectations of a more dovish Fed policy and limit the dollar’s recovery.

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