Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

EUR/GBP has traded in a tight range around the mid-0.8500s on Friday, little changed on the day. The latest Eurozone figures came in close to forecasts, and they did nothing to push the pair out of the range it has held all week.

Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.4% in the second quarter, matching expectations, with the annual rate at 1%. Employment rose 0.1% on the quarter, also as forecasted. Nothing in the release surprised, and the numbers are backward-looking, so the reaction was slight.

The pair has been going sideways for several sessions with the Euro (EUR) steadying after an earlier run of losses. United Kingdom (UK) data earlier in the week also landed close to forecasts, which left the Pound (GBP) without a clear lead of its own. With both sides matching expectations, little has separated them.

The Middle East war keeps a hand on energy prices, and through them on the inflation picture the European Central Bank (ECB) is weighing. Until that situation gets clearer, traders have little reason to commit to a direction.

Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8548. The cross is hovering just under a cluster of nearby resistance with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8557 capping the topside together with horizontal barriers at 0.8549 and 0.8550. Price holds marginally above the 20-period SMA at 0.8545, which, alongside the latest relative strength index (RSI) reading near 49, suggests a consolidative, range-bound bias rather than a clear directional move.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA and horizontal level around 0.8545, ahead of a lower floor at 0.8541. On the topside, EUR/GBP would need to reclaim the nearby resistances at 0.8549 and 0.8550 to challenge the 100-period SMA at 0.8557, a break above which would be needed to re-open a more constructive short-term outlook.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold prices recovered in the first half of Friday’s session after yesterday’s decline, helped by another batch of softer US economic data. The rebound could lose momentum however as oil prices pushed higher ahead of the weekend. That leaves gold at an interesting juncture. The metal surged last week after spending several weeks consolidating around the $4,000 level, prompting the obvious question: was the move the beginning of a fresh uptrend, or simply a powerful rebound within a broader period of consolidation or a bear trend? So far this week, we have seen a bit more upside in a choppy trade. For now, I remain cautious about calling the start of another major leg higher.

Gold forecast: Softer US data hasn’t weighed on bond yields The fundamental backdrop became somewhat more supportive for gold in the last few weeks. Last week’s disappointing payrolls figures were followed this week by broadly in-line inflation data, weaker retail sales and softer consumer sentiment. Taken together, those releases suggest that momentum in the US economy may be fading. That, in turn, has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.

While the dollar has weakened, bond yields have remained elevated, however. This is a major source of market risk which is now becoming increasingly difficult to ignore – not just for gold and other zero and low yielding assets, but for stock markets, too.

Oil is once again the market’s biggest variable With this week’s data out of the way, the focus remains fully the Middle East and the outlook for crude. Oil prices fell on Thursday, offering some relief, but they have since rebounded.  There has been little meaningful progress towards reviving the previous US-Iran agreement, while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to represent a significant threat to global energy markets. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said Washington would pursue unprecedented measures against Iran as part of its maximum-pressure campaign, have certainly not helped.

This is where the recent gold rally becomes more complicated. While CPI was weaker, there was roughly a 20% gain in oil prices in July. If oil prices remain elevated, there is a clear risk that inflation could re-accelerate. Higher energy prices would make it harder for the Fed to ease policy, while potentially pushing bond yields and the dollar higher — both of which would represent headwinds for gold.

Gold needs to clear a major resistance zone From a technical analysis perspective, gold now faces an important test here.

Source: TradingView.com Resistance is concentrated around the $4,365-$4,455 region. The metal has tested this area several times this week but has so far failed to break decisively above it. The zone is particularly significant because it brings together a previous swing low and an area that has shifted from support to resistance.

On the downside, initial support is located around $4,300-$4,305, followed by $4,200. Below that, the more important level sits around $4,100-$4,120, close to the base of last week’s breakout.

A sustained break above the $4,365-$4,455 resistance area would strengthen the case that the latest rally represents more than a temporary rebound. Failure to clear it, particularly alongside renewed strength in the dollar and oil, would leave the broader consolidation argument intact.

The bullish case still needs confirmation Gold remains one of the clearest potential beneficiaries of a more dovish shift in US monetary policy. Last week’s surge demonstrated just how quickly the metal can respond when dollar and rate expectations move in its favour.

The question is whether buyers can maintain that momentum.

Some consolidation following such a powerful advance was hardly surprising. What is less encouraging is that gold has struggled to generate a more convincing follow-through this week, suggesting that momentum may already be fading. However, it hasn’t sold off immediately either, so there is that too.

More importantly, the market probably needs another run of softer US economic data to turn the latest rebound into a durable bullish trend.

For now, the fundamental picture has improved modestly for gold, but the upside remains vulnerable. Unless Treasury yields weaken, the metal may struggle to sustain a move beyond its current resistance zone.

-- Written by Fawad Razaqzada, Market Analyst

Follow Fawad on Twitter @Trader_F_R

After posting its largest one-week gain since January in the first week of August, Gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally and touched a fresh two-month peak near $4,450 as markets continued to scale back bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September. With the crisis in the Middle East remaining unresolved, however, Gold corrected lower to end the week virtually unchanged. Investors will continue to pay close attention to comments from Fed officials and assess the developments surrounding the United States (US)-Iran conflict in search of the next directional clue.

Gold stretches higher following US inflation printsGold started the week on a bullish note as the negative impact of the disappointing US July employment data on the US Dollar (USD) lingered. After rising more than 1% on Monday, Gold stretched higher in the Asian session on Tuesday but lost its traction in the American session to close the day marginally lower.

US President Donald Trump claimed that the situation with Iran was “going fine” and that they had “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. Nonetheless, markets largely ignored these comments and Gold struggled to preserve its bullish momentum as CNN reported that only eight vessels crossed the waterway on Tuesday, compared to an average of 120 before the war. Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its crude Oil price projections, noting that it now expects the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $80.88 in 2026, compared to $76.26 in the previous forecast.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.1% following the 0.4% decline recorded in the previous month, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2%. All these figures came in line with market expectations and failed to support the USD, helping Gold erase Tuesday’s losses.

The USD came under renewed bearish pressure on Thursday after the BLS announced that the annual producer inflation softened to 4.7% in July from 5.5% in June. Following these data releases, the CME Group FedWatch Tool’s probability of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate hike in September declined below 35% from about 45% a week earlier.

Analysts at MUFG note that the US Dollar “has continued to trade on a softer footing this week encouraged by the scaling back of Fed rate hike expectations.” They highlight that “the slowdown in private employment and wage growth in recent months alongside limited evidence of higher energy prices spilling over into core inflation since the US-Iran conflict started is providing more leeway for the Fed to leave rates on hold.”

After touching its highest level since early June at $4,450 during the early hours of the American session, Gold lost its traction and closed the day in the red. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ‌noted on Thursday that Washington is going to apply measures that have "never been seen" on Iran, and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the US can sustain its blockade against Iran “indefinitely,” reviving concerns over a prolonged conflict that could force Oil prices to remain elevated.

Heading into the weekend, disappointing Retail Sales data from the US fed weighed on the USD and allowed Gold to end the week in the upper half of its weekly range, near $4,400.

Gold investors await fresh US data and Fed signalsThe US economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases in the first half of the week. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting. In case the document highlights that policymakers, who voted for a policy hold, keep an open mind about a rate increase in September, the USD could gather strength with the immediate reaction and cause Gold to correct lower. Conversely, the USD could come under pressure and pave the way for a leg higher in Gold if the publication reveals that policymakers see a high bar for a rate hike. Still, the market reaction could remain limited considering that the meeting took place before the July employment report.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack delivered a distinctly hawkish message earlier in the week, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.2/10, notably stronger relative to the historical average of 7.3/10. The repeated call to “raise rates right now,” framed against a stable labor market and broad-based inflation amid recent shocks, underscored a clear preference for tighter policy. Similarly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the labor market "stable, without being good" while stressing that "prices and affordability" and inflation are the biggest problems of the US economy, leaning toward prioritizing price stability over labor-market strength.

On Friday, S&P Global will publish the preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for August. In case either of the headline PMIs unexpectedly drop into contraction territory below 50, the immediate reaction is likely to be USD-negative and help XAU/USD push higher. If headline PMIs remain close to July levels, underlying details of the survey, especially around input inflation, could drive Gold’s performance. Any highlights about companies planning to increase prices in anticipation of persistently high energy costs could revive inflation fears. Even if PMI surveys fail to shift Fed expectations in a significant way, the USD could hold its ground in this scenario and weigh on XAU/USD heading into the weekend.

Analysts at OCBC argue that the recent recovery in gold may be losing momentum, noting that “this lack of follow-through suggests the next leg higher may not be straightforward after the recent recovery.” They acknowledge that “the broader macro backdrop remains more constructive as markets pare back Fed hike expectations,” but caution that “risks of near-term consolidation or a moderate pullback cannot be ruled out.” In their view, “a more sustained move higher may require further easing in US yields and the USD, alongside stronger investment demand such as continued ETF accumulation.”

On a more constructive outlook, TD Securities experts expect Gold to “remain near the upper end of its current trading range, which has shifted meaningfully higher since July,” but caution that “it is still too early to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz.” At the same time, they highlight that the balance of risks could turn more decisively bullish if price pressures remain contained, noting that “if no new inflation pressures materialize, Gold is off to the races and a 5-handle is a very real possibility.”

FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls retreatThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 60 but remains below the weekly highs, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact but lacks momentum. Additionally, Gold failed to stabilize above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located near $4,390, after climbing above this level several times this week, reflecting buyers’ hesitancy.

In case XAU/USD confirms $4,390-$4,400 (100-day SMA, static level) as support, $4,450 (static level) could be seen as an interim hurdle before the critical $4,500-$4,505 region, where the 200-day SMA and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the March-August downtrend align. Once this resistance is cleared, $4,680 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) could be seen as the bullish target.

On the downside, the immediate support area could be spotted at $4,300-$4,295 (static level, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) before $4,175-$4,150 (20-day SMA, 50-day SMA) and $4,000 (round level, static level).

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

EUR/USD rallies on Friday, erasing all the losses recorded earlier this week as broad-based weakness in the US Dollar (USD) lifts the Euro (EUR). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1580 near its highest level since June 17.

The US Dollar weakens as the latest batch of US economic data tempers expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.50, down 0.47% on the day.

US Retail Sales fell by 0.6% in July, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase and reversing the previous month’s 0.2% gain. Preliminary data from the University of Michigan (UoM) showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2, while the Consumer Expectations Index dropped to 50.6 from 55.4.

The data follows this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, which showed that price pressures eased for a second consecutive month, suggesting that the inflationary impact of the recent energy shock is fading.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see around a 70% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of an increase.

However, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz keeps Oil prices elevated. The Michigan survey’s one-year inflation expectation edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the five-year measure held steady at 3.3%.

On the Euro side, markets widely expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates in September, which would mark its second hike this year.

Economists at Commerzbank expect the ECB’s September move to bring the deposit rate to 2.5%, noting that at this level “a level would be reached that Governing Council members view as the upper limit of the neutral interest rate—one that neither stimulates nor slows the economy and leads to medium-term inflation.”

Looking further ahead, Commerzbank argues that “toward the end of 2027, the ECB is likely to lower interest rates again,” as “inflation should gradually decline over the course of the coming year and come close to reaching the inflation target.”

ECB FAQs The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

NZD/USD rallies to 0.5888, pushing above both EMAs and approaching the 0.5900 resistance level. Source: TradingView
The New Zealand dollar looks very much the same, hanging around the 0.59 level. It looks like it’s struggling a bit over the last hour or so. Pullback wouldn’t be the most shocking thing here either. Quite frankly, though, this one has been in a relatively tight range for a while, so we’re now getting to the top of the consolidation area that we had broken out of. A lot of noisy trading, but New Zealand is highly sensitive to what goes on in the Strait of Hormuz, especially from an energy standpoint, and right now there isn’t much going on, so I think that is one concern.

The RBNZ is expected to raise rates again, but so is the Federal Reserve. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. Recently, the US economic numbers have been a little softer. People are starting to temper down the bets on the Fed raising rates, so that’s part of what’s going on here.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

RBC's price assumptions put gold at an average $5,250 an ounce in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028, while JPMorgan sees evidence that buyers are returning after the market established support near $4,000.
The Gold price in US Dollars has begun to recover from its mid-year correction, and two bank research frameworks point to a market that is consolidating rather than ending its longer-term advance.

Latest gold market data: XAU/USD traded at $4,351.05 an ounce at 11:56 BST on 14 August 2026, down 0.17% on the day but 7.34% higher over one month.

Gold remained 6.43% lower over three months and 13.48% lower over six months, yet it was still 30.65% above its level a year earlier.

Gold price performance over one month to 14 August 2026.

RBC's Gold Standard comparable tables assume an average $4,732 for 2026, rising to $5,250 in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028.

The bank's long-term assumption is lower at $4,000, giving the forecast a pronounced medium-term peak rather than an indefinitely rising line.

From current spot, the 2027 average is roughly 21% higher and the 2028 assumption about 26% higher.

These are annual averages used in company valuation work, not year-end targets, so gold would not need to finish either year at precisely those levels.

JPMorgan sees buyers returning above $4,000
JPMorgan's volatility research supplies the market mechanism behind the upside case.

“The fundamental view remains on the upside in the long term, as we continue to see strong inflows from central banks with accelerated buying on the dip,” the bank said.

That official-sector thesis has support beyond the research note: World Gold Council data show reported central-bank reserves rising by a net 41 tonnes in May.

JPMorgan also sees a change in investor behaviour after July's narrow trading range.

“As gold prices are finding the floor at 4000 and trading within a tight 5% range over the whole of July, the first signs of buyers winning over sellers are starting to show,” it said.

Retail demand is part of that turn.

“We are starting to see retail investors warming up to gold again,” JPMorgan said, pointing to renewed call-option interest in the GLD exchange-traded fund.

Gold price performance in 2026 to 14 August.

The two banks are not making identical calls.

RBC supplies a multi-year price deck, while JPMorgan identifies positioning and volatility signals around a $4,000 support area.

Together they describe a bullish medium-term case with real drawdown risk: the long-run floor is well below RBC's projected 2028 peak, but central-bank buying and returning investor demand can keep the recovery alive before that normalisation arrives.

Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

US Dollar /Swiss Franc (USD/CHF): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, USD/CHF is interacting with the 1 (100%) Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.

Market outlookThe 1 (100%) Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.

If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 0.8040 (0.786 Arc) becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 4h close above the Arc would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the next Resistance Arc.

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Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

Market news from the European morning session - 14 August 2026

Headlines:

Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodBitcoin loses key $64,000 level: The important support levels BTC must hold nextBOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tighteningGerman wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapsesFrench inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as wellSwiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarterChina new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this yearMarkets:

WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $81.64NZD leads, USD lags on the dayGold up 0.3% to $4,362S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 4.645%Bitcoin down 0.8% to $62,829There's not all too much in it as we get into the final stretch of the week.

The market mood is fairly mixed, with the dollar sitting lower while oil prices and bond yields are just a touch higher on the day.

There are no fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz still in de facto closure after Iran threatened more ships again - this time being UAE oil vessels.

WTI crude sits higher by 0.5% to $81.64 and looks poised to end the week with gains well over 5%. Meanwhile, bond yields also nudged a little higher early on but is now moving back down a little. 10-year yields in the US are little changed now at 4.645% with the earlier high touching 4.665%.

Even so, the dollar is seen being offered in European morning trade. It was one-way traffic with the greenback losing ground across the board. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.1567 in retesting the 100-day moving average once again. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to close in on the 159.00 mark on the day.

In other markets, European indices are lightly changed for the most part while US futures are holding a marginal advance on the day. There's not a whole lot in it but Wall Street will be hoping to follow up from the record close in the S&P 500 yesterday.

Besides that, gold is up 0.3% to $4,362 after erasing early losses with the fall back earlier touching a low of $4,311.

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The British Pound (GBP) trades 0.35% higher to near 1.3533 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair reflects strength as the US Dollar declines, with traders pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September policy meeting.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% lower to near 99.70.

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.34%-0.39%-0.24%-0.35%-0.31%-0.65%-0.27%EUR0.34%-0.05%0.07%-0.06%0.03%-0.32%0.06%GBP0.39%0.05%0.15%0.00%0.08%-0.25%0.12%JPY0.24%-0.07%-0.15%-0.11%-0.08%-0.43%-0.03%CAD0.35%0.06%-0.00%0.11%0.04%-0.29%0.08%AUD0.31%-0.03%-0.08%0.08%-0.04%-0.34%0.05%NZD0.65%0.32%0.25%0.43%0.29%0.34%0.39%CHF0.27%-0.06%-0.12%0.03%-0.08%-0.05%-0.39%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in September have increased to almost 65%. This represents a major repricing from the 75% odds of two Fed hikes by the September meeting recorded a month earlier.

Soft United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July allowed traders to pare back hawkish Fed interest rate expectations.

US inflation data temper September Fed hike oddsAnalysts at Commerzbank note that "July US CPI came in broadly in line with expectations," reinforcing the view that price pressures, while still elevated, are not re-accelerating. They highlight that "overall, the report suggested that underlying inflation remains above the Fed's target but showed no broad-based re-acceleration, giving policymakers more room to remain on hold." In response, Commerzbank points out that "the Fed funds futures subsequently pared expectations for a September rate hike, with markets pricing around a 40% probability of a 25bp increase compared with 52% on Monday," underscoring a modest but notable shift in near-term Fed tightening expectations.

Meanwhile, the British Pound is expected to trade highly volatile next week as the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending June and the CPI data for July are scheduled to be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3535, having pushed decisively above the former downward resistance trend line, which now offers support around 1.3451. Price action above this reclaimed structural level suggests a bullish near-term bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.7 shows firm positive momentum without yet reaching overbought territory, hinting that buyers retain control.

On the downside, the broken trend-line region near 1.3451 is immediate support, and a daily close back below that level would signal waning bullish pressure. On the topside, the next notable hurdle is the origin of the previous trend line around 1.3871, where a sustained break would open the way for a broader continuation of sterling gains against the dollar.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar FAQs

The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.

The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Friday after opening the day in negative territory and falling to a fresh weekly low of $4,311. At the time of writing, the precious metal trades around $4,350, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) and fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. The metal, however, remains below the two-month high of $4,449 touched on Thursday.

This week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases showed that inflationary pressures are gradually easing. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and sharp downward revisions to the previous two months' figures cast doubt on the recent strength of the labour market.

The softer run of US economic data has pushed front-end Treasury yields sharply lower and kept the US Dollar Index (DXY) pressured below 100, as traders trim bets on a September Fed rate hike. Attention now turns to US Retail Sales and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data due later on Friday.

Analysts at MUFG highlight that "the slowdown in private employment and wage growth in recent months alongside limited evidence of higher energy prices spilling over into core inflation since the US-Iran conflict started is providing more leeway for the Fed to leave rates on hold."

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in around a 70% chance that the Fed will keep borrowing costs unchanged in September.

This creates a supportive near-term backdrop for the non-yielding metal, but the inflation outlook is far from settled. Inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% target, while the impact of the energy shock has not fully faded. Oil prices remain elevated as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drags on.

Longer-dated US Treasury yields also remain high, as persistent inflation risks leave the possibility of future Fed rate hikes on the table. This could limit Gold’s upside and keep buyers cautious about chasing the metal higher after its recent advance.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD struggles to clear 100-day SMA

XAU/USD remains near recent highs but is struggling to secure a decisive break above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,386. The metal holds well above the 20-day SMA, which forms the Bollinger middle band at $4,173.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is around 62 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator in positive territory suggests that bullish momentum is still firm enough to challenge the overhead barrier.

On the topside, the area between the 100-day SMA at $4,386 and the Bollinger upper band at $4,455 forms a strong resistance zone. A sustained break above this area could bring fresh bullish momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around $4,173, ahead of the psychologically important $4,000 mark. A deeper slide would expose the Bollinger lower band near $3,891.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appreciates on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground across the board amid dwindling hopes of immediate Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The NZD/USD pair has bounced up to session highs beyond 0.5880 at the time of writing after bouncing from 0.5820 lows on Thursday, with bulls eyeing two-month highs right above 0.5900.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that “cooling US CPI and PPI inflation in July” have “trimmed the implied odds of a Fed rate hike in September to nearly 30%, the lowest since the June 17 FOMC decision.”

Haddad notes that this repricing “is keeping USD in check and lifting risk appetite despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict,” adding that “today’s US data releases are unlikely to shift the dial on Fed fund futures pricing.”

Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the 0.5920 area

NZD/USD held above the 200-day SMA on Thursday and has bounced up strongly, trading at 0.5883 at the time of writing and honouring the upward trendline support from late-June lows.

Momentum indicators in the daily chart are neutral to bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 hinting at a constructive bias, while a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) warns about the frail upside pressure.

Bulls are looking at the area between 0.5905 and 0.5920 where August 3 and 7 highs meet the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June's selloff. Further up, the 0.6000 area, where bulls were capped in May and early June, emerges as the next target.

On the downside, initial support, the area between the upward trendline, now at 0.5850, and the 200-day SMA at 0.5831, remains a significant challenge for bears. Below here, the late July lows, near 0.5760, would come into play.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.22%-0.31%-0.22%-0.31%-0.23%-0.54%-0.11%EUR0.22%-0.09%0.00%-0.13%0.00%-0.34%0.11%GBP0.31%0.09%0.11%-0.03%0.09%-0.22%0.21%JPY0.22%0.00%-0.11%-0.07%-0.01%-0.35%0.12%CAD0.31%0.13%0.03%0.07%0.07%-0.24%0.20%AUD0.23%-0.00%-0.09%0.00%-0.07%-0.32%0.13%NZD0.54%0.34%0.22%0.35%0.24%0.32%0.46%CHF0.11%-0.11%-0.21%-0.12%-0.20%-0.13%-0.46%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Silver (XAG/USD) gains 0.37% on Friday and trades around $64.70 at the time of writing, erasing part of its recent correction. The precious metal benefits from easing expectations of monetary tightening in the United States (US), although persistent tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel concerns about energy prices and limit investor optimism.

The latest US inflation data reinforce the view that price pressures are beginning to ease. The Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed to 4.7% YoY, while the Core PPI came in at 4.2%. These figures, combined with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday, are helping reduce expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see around a 35% chance of an interest rate hike at the September meeting, down from 40% immediately after the PPI release and from a significantly higher level at the end of July. This shift supports Silver, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Fed officials nevertheless remain divided. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee believes that some of the recent price pressures stem from temporary factors, particularly tariffs and energy, arguing in favor of a patient approach. In contrast, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack considers that progress on inflation remains insufficient and that further rate hikes may be necessary to ensure price stability.

The geopolitical backdrop also remains a key driver for XAG/USD. Negotiations aimed at restoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, while traffic continues to be very limited through this key waterway and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Disruptions to energy supplies are keeping Oil prices elevated and could reignite inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed's task.

Attention now turns to US July Retail Sales, due later on Friday. Following recent signs of slowing inflation and weakness in the labor market, a weaker-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of a more cautious Fed and provide further support to Silver. Conversely, resilient US consumer spending could revive speculation that interest rates will remain elevated for longer.

XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.67, maintaining a capped tone as it holds beneath the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $65.00 and the downward resistance trend line coming in near $65.15. The pair remains above the 200-hour SMA at $63.09, which hints at an underlying broader uptrend, but the current location between these moving averages favors near-term consolidation under resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 suggests mildly positive momentum, yet this does little more than temper selling pressure while overhead levels continue to restrain the upside.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around the 100-hour SMA at $65.00 and the trend-line barrier near $65.15, with a more distant horizontal cap at $66.80 likely to attract sellers on any stronger rebound. On the downside, initial demand is expected near the 200-hour SMA at $63.09, closely followed by the horizontal support at $63.00, where a break would open the door to a deeper correction and weaken the broader constructive backdrop for silver prices.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports the British Pound (GBP) is the best performing major currency in August, with GBP/USD back above 1.3500. The United Kingdom (UK) economy is proving resilient to the energy price shock linked to the US-Iran conflict, with Q2 GDP up 0.4% after 0.6% in Q1. Strong private consumption, recovering business investment and robust services and IT activity are supporting the currency.

UK data and carry back Pound strength"The pound is continuing to perform well this year."

"It has been the best performing major currency so far in August with cable rising back above the 1.3500."

"The pound has been supported by further evidence yesterday that the UK economy is proving more resilient than expected to the negative energy price shock triggered by the US-Iran conflict."

"It was revealed yesterday that the UK economy expanded by 0.4% in Q2 following strong growth of 0.6% in Q1."

"After stagnating following the Brexit vote in 2016 until the COVID shock in 2020, business investment has since regained upward momentum providing a tailwind for the UK economy."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

On 13 August, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that GDP growth slowed to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, down from 0.6% in the first quarter. The figure was in line with expectations, and the market reaction was relatively muted.

The interest-rate backdrop has also remained broadly unchanged for several weeks. On 30 July, the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%, while the ECB left its rate at 2.25% on 23 July. With both decisions largely priced into the market, the absence of fresh guidance from either central bank means that short-term EUR/GBP price action may be driven more by technical factors than by the latest macroeconomic data.

Technical Analysis of EUR/GBP

The second half of July saw a strong upward move in EUR/GBP, with the pair climbing from below 0.8460 to a peak near the current resistance level at 0.8586.

The rally was followed by a consolidation phase. Since the beginning of August, price action has gradually narrowed into a pattern resembling a symmetrical triangle, with the trading range becoming progressively tighter.

On Monday, 10 August, the pair broke below the lower boundary of the formation. EUR/GBP is currently trading beneath both the triangle’s lower trendline and the lower boundary of the current market profile at 0.8553, while testing the latter from below. If this retest is successful and the downside move gains momentum, the green support level around 0.8533 could become increasingly important.

A false breakout, however, would shift attention back towards the upside. In that scenario, the pair would face several technical barriers: the Point of Control (POC) at 0.8564, the upper boundary of the profile at 0.8580, and the key resistance level at 0.8586.

The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 48, 40 and 43. The bearish signal has failed to develop further, while the RSI has moved back into the neutral zone, suggesting that momentum remains inconclusive.

Key Takeaways
The attempted downside breakout has pushed EUR/GBP outside the profile in which the recent consolidation developed. The next directional move may depend on whether the pound receives additional support from the Bank of England as the central bank determines its subsequent policy course.

For now, the technical setup remains vulnerable to a false breakout, with the 0.8553 retest likely to be particularly important in determining whether sellers can maintain control or the pair returns to the consolidation range.

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The Euro (EUR) trades 0.17% higher at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair gains as the Euro rises due to firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting in September.

According to a Reuters poll, 57 of 69 economists said that they see the ECB hiking its deposit rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% in September.

Market experts also seem confident about the ECB tightening its monetary conditions in September to tame hot inflationary pressures.

ECB seen hiking again as other central banks face tougher choices

Analysts at HSBC highlight a growing divergence in the global policy outlook, noting that "although we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to now deliver another rate rise in September, for other major central banks it is a much tougher balancing act." The bank contrasts the ECB’s readiness to tighten further with a more cautious stance elsewhere, underscoring the challenge facing policymakers outside the Eurozone as they weigh inflation risks against the need to keep policy on hold.

Meanwhile, traders pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is dragging the US Dollar.

Fed hike odds slip as softer inflation data drives dovish repricing

Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the softer inflation backdrop has prompted a notable dovish shift in Fed expectations, with “pricing for a September Fed hike fell to just 35% by the close, down from above 50% on the morning of Wednesday’s CPI release.” They add that the “downside PPI surprise led to an immediate reaction in pricing for the next Fed meeting,” noting that “the probability of a September hike had been at 40% right before the release, but was down to 35% by the close.”

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD trades at around 1.1550, holding the downward-sloping trendline at around 1.1540, but is capped by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which is at 1.1567.

The Relative Strength Index (14) around 60 hints at firm bullish momentum, but this improving sentiment is yet to overcome the overhead SMA that continues to act as a ceiling.

On the downside, initial support is seen near the former trend-line break point at 1.1510, where the market previously cleared a descending resistance line, now acting as a structural floor. On the topside, the 100-day SMA at 1.1567 forms the first resistance barrier, and a decisive close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way to a more sustained recovery. Looking up, the major barricade of the pair would be the round-level at 1.1600.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

ECB FAQs The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Post-CPI summer trading conditions continue to keep FX volatility subdued, leaving EUR/USD largely anchored. Still, our models are pointing to some short-term undervaluation in the pair, supporting our moderately bullish bias for coming weeks. Gulf headlines remain a marginal factor for FX, more visible in some relative value trades than USD crosses.

USD: Looking for a shift in FedspeakThe post-CPI midsummer environment is understandably weighing on FX vols. We argued yesterday, that this could remain the norm for at least the next couple of weeks. At the same time, we retain a preference for dollar downside, as we still believe market conviction around further tightening by the Federal Reserve is too strong.

For now, Fedspeak offers the clearest potential catalyst for market moves. There is still considerable uncertainty over the message that could emerge from the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium, particularly after a CPI report that leaned dovish without delivering a definitive signal. Yesterday, we heard from Beth Hammack, who voted for a hike and continued to make the case for tightening, but also from Tom Barkin, who raised some doubts about the need for higher rates despite not being considered a dovish voice within the FOMC. Let’s see if more centrist members start to soften their hawkish tone.

Today’s US calendar includes July retail sales, expected at a modest 0.1% month-on-month, and the University of Michigan surveys, which are expected to show little change from August. These second-tier releases would likely need to deliver significant surprises to trigger a meaningful dollar reaction.

Meanwhile, headline fatigue surrounding the Middle East remains elevated. US-Iran negotiations appear to be at a stalemate, but Brent declined yesterday, providing some support for global bonds. The bar for the dollar to rebuild a strong direct relationship with oil prices remains quite high, and the impact of developments in the Gulf may remain more visible in G10 relative-value trades, where pairs such as NOK/SEK and AUD/NZD continue to track the energy story quite closely.

EUR: Showing some undervaluationOur models suggest EUR/USD’s short-term fair value sits in the 1.160-1.1650 area. That’s primarily on the back of the c.10bp tightening in two-year swap rate spreads, which retain a significantly higher beta than other drivers.

That supports our positive bias on EUR/USD, even though we aren’t convinced a break above 1.160 is on the cards in the coming days unless communication from the Fed starts to surprise on the dovish side. For now, EUR/USD bulls like us may be content with strengthening technical support around 1.1500.

In the eurozone, the second release of 2Q GDP will be released today, with no expectations for meaningful changes to the advance 0.4% quarter-on-quarter print.

JPY: BoJ policy story having little effect so farDespite some sharp moves in Japanese money markets this week, the yen is failing to find any lasting support. Here, the big story is that the Japanese government might be more tolerant of a faster tightening cycle by the Bank of Japan. The prior assumption had been that a government focusing on growth would only allow the BoJ one hike every six months. The suggestion now is that Tokyo has elevated FX as a policy priority and wants to ensure that the first joint intervention with the US to buy the yen since 1998 is a success.

Markets now price close to a 75% chance that the BoJ hikes 25bp in September. That has seen two-year US: Japan swap differentials narrow nearly 40bp since mid-July. That should be weighing on USD/JPY. The fact that it is not may owe to benign conditions that continue to favour the yen-funded carry trade. That said, the risks to funding in yen are squarely increasing, and if we are right with our call for unchanged Fed rates in September, USD/JPY could well be trading back below 158. And to play independent yen strength in the interim, expect a lot more focus on short CHF/JPY positions.

CEE: Central bank signals take centre stageTurkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecast to 28% from 26%, bringing it closer to market expectations and our own forecast. It also signalled that the effective policy stance is likely to normalise as funding shifts from the overnight lending facility back to the repo window. We had expected this move in September, but the case for an earlier shift in August has strengthened. Today, Turkey will publish August inflation expectations, which have risen somewhat since the start of the US-Iran conflict.

Elsewhere, Romania releases 2Q GDP figures today, though yesterday’s press conference by the National Bank of Romania governor was the main focus. While the central bank lifted its year-end inflation forecast to 6.1%, the governor said discussions on rate cuts could begin early next year. This matches our forecast, but the firm signal may still surprise markets.

In the Czech Republic, the Czech National Bank will publish minutes from last week’s meeting, when rates were left unchanged at 3.75%. The minutes may reveal a more dovish discussion than markets expect. The CNB will also release its full inflation report. 

Read the original analysis here

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD price action remains confined, with intraday moves seen between 1.3475 and 1.3515 as momentum has faded. For the coming 1–3 weeks, they expect the Pound to trade in a broader 1.3440–1.3540 band after a brief test of 1.3540, while longer-term signals point to range-trading with supports at 1.3210/1.3160 and resistance at 1.3610/1.3655.

Pound momentum fades into ranges"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 two days ago before dropping back down to a low of 1.3488. When it was at 1.3500 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that “the current price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase between 1.3475 and 1.3525.” Our view of range-trading was not wrong, even though GBP traded within a narrower range than expected (1.3475/1.3513). The price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3475 and 1.3515."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a slightly positive GBP view since last Monday. In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 1.3510), we indicated that while GBP “could test 1.3555, based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely.” GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 two days ago and then pulled back, printing a low of 1.3475 yesterday. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.3460 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. For the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range, most likely between 1.3440 and 1.3540."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Pound-Australian Dollar can hold a firm tone if risk appetite stays fragile, although hawkish RBA rhetoric could limit any move back above AU$1.91. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate edged higher on Thursday as a risk-off market mood weighed on the ‘Aussie’, while the latest UK GDP figures left Sterling broadly steady.

At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading around AU$1.9123, marginally higher on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.910309 (-0.03%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.348536 (-0.09%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) was relatively muted on Thursday, although it managed to hold an advantage against weaker rivals after the UK’s latest GDP figures met expectations.

Data from the Office for National Statistics showed the UK economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter, down from 0.6% in the first quarter but still a respectable pace of growth.

Sterling drew only limited support from the release as the figures matched forecasts and some of the strength was linked to temporary and seasonal factors. The World Cup and warm summer weather helped lift activity in June.

There was also some caution over the outlook for the second half of the year. A number of economists warned that growth could slow if elevated energy prices and Middle East tensions keep inflation pressures high.

Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) softened as a cautious market mood undermined demand for the risk-sensitive currency.

Investor sentiment remained fragile as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer. Iran’s insistence that vessels require its permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside threats to prolong the conflict with the US, kept markets on edge.

With hopes for a ceasefire and a full reopening of shipping routes fading, investors remained wary of holding higher-risk assets, leaving the ‘Aussie’ under pressure.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Can Bullock’s comments steady the Australian Dollar? Looking ahead, a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock could influence the Australian Dollar during Friday’s Asian session.

Bullock struck a relatively hawkish tone after the RBA left interest rates on hold earlier this week. If she repeats that message, the ‘Aussie’ could find support and limit GBP/AUD upside.

For Sterling, UK data is thin on the ground, which may leave the Pound trading without a strong independent driver.

That means wider risk sentiment could remain the main influence on the pairing. If Middle East tensions continue to sap confidence, GBP/AUD may stay supported. A brighter market mood, however, could help the Australian Dollar recover.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Key Points:Softer U.S. CPI and PPI have strengthened expectations for a less restrictive Federal Reserve policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing major trendline resistance near 1.1569, with a breakout potentially exposing 1.1620 and 1.1674.UK GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, giving the Bank of England more room to focus on persistent inflation risks.DXY continues defending the critical 99.40 trendline support but needs to reclaim 100.36 to strengthen its recovery.GBP/USD remains constructive above its rising trendline, though buyers need to clear 1.3515 to confirm another bullish leg.

In this article:GBP/USD

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GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD

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EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise as Euro and Pound Navigate Domestic Risks As of August 14, the U.S. dollar is facing pressure due to changing expectations for the Fed after release of slower inflation data provided further evidence of a case for increased easing. The July report for the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated that inflation for wholesale goods was unchanged compared to the month prior, and core PPI also increased by 0.2% after the latest CPI report indicated a slower-than-expected rise. The data released further eased the concerns for inflation rising again and suggested that the Fed was likely to begin cutting rates in September.

For the Fed, the labor market is still the most important factor. The recent data for July hiring indicated slower hiring, and more of a need to strike a balance between inflation concerns and an economy likely to be slowing. However, Fed officials reassure the market that the inflation data is still well above the Fed’s target for inflation being set at 2%.

The euro is benefitting from the slower expectations of Fed rate movements, but is also dealing with domestic challenges. The European Central Bank is still maintaining a cautious stance by keeping policy the same as they assess the impact of the disruptions to Middle East energy supply and inflation as well as consumer demand. Recent reports of the activity of the euro zone have shown signs of stabilizing, but still have the potential to grow at a lower level due to slow demand and geopolitical challenges.

Sterling faces considerable pressure as the UK’s second-quarter GDP showed a 0.4% quarterly rise, following stronger early quarter growth. The data published reflects the economy’s resilience, especially as price rises for energy have been high and global uncertainties remain. Still, the Bank of England must continue to balance inflation and the threats caused by the increasing growth of nominal wages and energy price rises.

For currency markets, the most important factor continues to be the difference in interest rates and the expected changes. Easing US inflation has lowered expectations of further rate hikes by the FOMC, and the euro and pound are now being evaluated on whether their respective domestic economies can continue to grow without re-igniting inflation.

U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds 99.40 Support as Bulls Attempt Recovery Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index is hovering around 99.95, as it stabilized above the significant 99.40 support area. The daily chart depicts DXY still as a sell into the 101.60 area; however, bulls defend the rising trendline which has been a key topside recovering support line since the March lows. The index is currently trading sideways between resistance and support, potentially forming a base and accumulating ahead of a new strong trending move.

Price is just above the 100.00 level, with the 50-day EMA at 100.29 and acting as resistance. The 100-day EMA at 99.91 is currently acting as support and along with the current price makes this area of the market very important. RSI at 42 reflects zero momentum and a low level, but is also neutral and showing signs of the potential beginning of a new recovery if buyers show strength.

Breaking above 100.36 would provide a strong outlook for further recovery to the 100.82 and also 101.61 levels. Below the 99.40 support would lead to a sell off at 98.75 and possibly 98.18. The current outlook maintains a bullish recovery strategy, but is cautious as long as the rising trendline is intact.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Cable Tests 1.3515 Resistance While Trendline Supports Buyers

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is at 1.3487 after a highly bullish response to the 1.3270 lows. An ascending trendline is currently following the upward structure, with price having trouble breaching the 1.3515 resistance area, which has led to sideways movement in this area.

The 50-day EMA is at 1.3477 and the 100-day EMA is at 1.3446, which puts this pair slightly in favor of bulls. RSI is at 48 and shows that this pair may be losing some of its bullish momentum.

Breaching 1.3515 would show an upward movement with targets of 1.3545 and 1.3586. 1.3437 and 1.3400 offer support. The overall structure is bullish as long as price remains above the trendline. For bulls to resume their momentum, 1.3515 is an important level to take out.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Faces Trendline Resistance Near 1.1570 EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD currency cross currently trades around 1.1530. It has recovered from the 1.1350 July lows, but it’s facing a downward trendline and a resistance zone from the early year highs. The daily chart shows an attempt at recovery, but buyers will need a clear break above the trendline and the 1.1569 level to continue the trend higher.

The cross currently is trading above the 1.1499 50 day moving average and the 1.1541 100 day moving average. This indicates short term momentum is positive, but vague. Further, RSI is at 57, positive but not overbought.

A close above 1.1569 should confirm the breakout and may allow for a move toward 1.1620 and 1.1674. In the opposite direction, the first support is at 1.1500 and falls at 1.1455 and 1.1357. The cross is currently at a pivotal point, and the next move is likely based on if buyers break the long-term downtrend line or if sellers hold the current resistance.

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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Latest news and analysis

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. Silver price falls as investors opted to take profits while weighing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy trajectory alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Cooling inflation data further shaped market sentiment, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US wholesale prices for goods and services remained flat in July. This came in softer than the expected 0.2% growth and followed a revised 0.1% decline in June. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, core Producer Price Index (PPI) figures nudged up 0.2%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI rose 4.7% while core PPI increased 4.2%.

These softer inflation numbers have prompted market participants to recalibrate their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting dropped to 34.8%, down from 40% immediately following the PPI release. At the same time, diplomatic negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, leaving investors wary of a potential escalation that could spark higher energy costs and rekindle inflationary forces.

Silver draws strong CTA interest as prices test key triggerAccording to TD Securities, "Silver stands out for near-term CTA flows," with the bank highlighting that "prices above $66.80/oz" are "likely to see further buying." Their models suggest that commodity trading advisers are "likely to add 3-4% of historic max length under all pricing scenarios into next week," underscoring robust systematic demand for the metal on sustained price strength.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.55 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders remain on high alert for further currency intervention from Japanese authorities. 

Japan's former top currency diplomat, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, said on Thursday that Tokyo may conduct joint JPY intervention with the United States "at any time" and should signal the chance of faster-than-expected interest rate hikes to arrest the currency's slide. 

Markets currently see a 76% chance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in September, according to Tokyo Tanshi data, compared with 24% on July 30.

Yen undervaluation seen easing after Japan–US interventionDBS Group Research notes that the Japanese Yen’s mispricing has started to correct in the wake of recent official action. According to the bank, “the Japanese yen's (JPY) undervaluation has narrowed from record levels following Japan's second FX market intervention this year, which was conducted in co-ordination with the US,” underscoring the impact of rare, joint efforts by Japan and the US to rein in excessive JPY weakness.

Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds below the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day moving average, keeping the near-term bias bearish as price is capped beneath these overlapping resistance lines. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 50.43 is neutral, suggesting a consolidative tone rather than strong directional momentum while downside risks remain dominant as long as the cross stays under the 100-day average.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around the Bollinger middle band at 112.70, followed by the 100-day moving average at 112.90. A daily close above these levels would be needed to ease selling pressure and open the way toward the July 27 high of 114.67, en route to the Bollinger upper band near 115.40. 

On the downside, initial support emerges at the August 10 low of 111.63. The key contention level is seen at the Bollinger lower band at 110.00, where a break would signal a deeper corrective phase toward the lower end of the recent range.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 521.93 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 525.07 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,087.84 per tola from SAR 6,124.37 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

521.93

10 Grams

5,219.43

Tola

6,087.84

Troy Ounce

16,233.99

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 510.58 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 513.66 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,955.32 per tola from AED 5,991.25 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

510.58

10 Grams

5,105.81

Tola

5,955.32

Troy Ounce

15,880.88

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)