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AI Bubble Burst or Profit-Taking? The China Fund Up 164% Just Started Selling

TLDR Volvo Group tested a proprietary cryptocurrency for transactions with material and transport suppliers. The proposed system would operate within a closed blockchain network for selected supply chain partners. Immutable records could improve order tracking, transport data sharing, and cross-border transaction management. Product traceability may help the company meet sanctions, trade rules, and Digital Product Passport requirements. The initiative remains at the exploration stage and has not entered commercial or industrial deployment. Volvo Group has tested a proprietary cryptocurrency concept for supplier transactions within a private blockchain environment. Volvo Group said the internal exploration targets faster cross-border exchanges and secure data sharing between supply chain participants. The initiative also seeks immutable transaction records without relying on traditional currencies.

Internal blockchain trial targets supplier transactions Ivan Branco described an internal exploration involving transport suppliers and a proprietary cryptocurrency for controlled blockchain transactions. He discussed the initiative during a recent interview with the Cardano Foundation. The effort remains an exploratory project rather than a commercial deployment.

The proposed system would allow Volvo Group to exchange transaction data with material and transport suppliers inside a closed network. The blockchain would record transportation details and purchase information through immutable digital records. The approach aims to simplify cross-border processes while reducing dependence on conventional payment methods.

Branco said, “We have also done explorations with certain transport suppliers to see if we could create, let’s say, an enclosed environment using blockchain for the transactions in between material supplier, transport supplier, and ourselves with a proprietary cryptocurrency that we created for that specific purpose.”

The statement described discussions with selected transport partners rather than a finalized production system. Volvo Group has not announced a timetable for broader implementation.

Supply chain goals extend beyond digital payments The blockchain initiative supports broader supply chain improvements beyond transaction processing. Volvo Group also sees opportunities for product traceability and future regulatory compliance. Those efforts include preparations for Europe’s upcoming Digital Product Passport requirements.

Branco highlighted difficulties tracking the country of origin for spare parts and assembled vehicles. He explained that trade restrictions create additional compliance responsibilities across international supply chains.

He said, “When you had the Russia-Ukraine situation where the European Union said you don’t ship any more goods towards Russia, you need to know if the goods are getting to Russia, for example, because you’re sending them to importers who might then resell those parts and you’re still liable.”

Branco also acknowledged technical and operational barriers affecting blockchain adoption across established industrial systems. He cited legacy infrastructure, blockchain knowledge, scalability, maintenance, and ongoing support requirements. Volvo Group confirmed that these factors remain important considerations during the evaluation process.

Existing blockchain work provides practical experience Another company within the broader corporate family has already adopted blockchain technology for manufacturing traceability. Volvo Cars introduced blockchain-based cobalt tracking for electric vehicle batteries in 2019. That implementation focused on improving transparency across battery supply chains.

Meanwhile, Volvo Group continues evaluating blockchain applications that could strengthen logistics, compliance, and supplier coordination. The company has presented the cryptocurrency concept as an internal exploration instead of an operational payment platform. No announcement has indicated commercial deployment or production availability.

DeFi liquidity is not one thing. It comes from pools, ranges, vaults, market makers and intent-based systems - each with clear strengths and trade-offs.

What happens when DeFi capital isn’t where traders need it? That’s the liquidity problem.

When liquidity is deep, swaps feel effortless. You choose a token, confirm the trade and receive the asset you wanted at a fair rate.

When liquidity is weak, everything gets harder. Prices move against you. Routes fragment. Large swaps create high price impact. Liquidity providers may deposit capital but still earn less than expected.

DeFi no longer relies on one liquidity provision model. Different systems now compete to answer the same question: how can capital be made available where it is needed most? Here are the main liquidity models - and where each one works or breaks down.

Traditional AMM poolsAutomated market makers, or AMMs, are the classic DeFi liquidity model. LPs deposit two or more assets into a pool. Traders swap against that pool. The pool uses a formula to set prices, and LPs earn fees from trading activity.

The strength is simplicity. Anyone can provide liquidity. Anyone can trade. There is no need for a centralized order book or a traditional market maker.

This model helped DeFi scale because it made markets open by default. But the weakness is capital efficiency. In many AMM pools, much of the deposited liquidity does not actively support trades most of the time. Capital sits in the pool, but only part of it may be close enough to the active price range to earn meaningful fees. For LPs, that creates a problem: funds can be “deployed” but still underused.

Concentrated liquidityConcentrated liquidity tries to make LP capital work harder. Instead of spreading liquidity across all possible prices, LPs choose a price range. If trades happen inside that range, the capital can be more efficient and earn more fees.

The strength is better capital utilization. This model can support deeper liquidity around the current market price, which can reduce price impact for traders and improve fee capture for active LPs.

But the weakness is complexity. LPs have to choose ranges, monitor price movement and rebalance positions. If the market moves outside the chosen range, the liquidity may stop earning fees. This makes concentrated liquidity powerful for active or professional LPs, but harder for passive users.

Stable poolsStable pools are designed for assets that should trade near the same value. That usually means stablecoins or closely related assets, such as different versions of wrapped tokens.

The strength is low-slippage trading. When the assets stay close in value, stable pools can provide very efficient swaps. This makes them useful for stablecoin trading, payments, treasury movement and other low-volatility flows.

But the weakness appears when the relationship breaks. If one asset depegs or becomes less trusted, the pool can become imbalanced. LPs may end up holding more of the weaker asset. So stable pools work well for a specific type of liquidity, but they do not solve the broader issue of fragmented capital across DeFi.

Order book liquidityOrder book systems look more like traditional exchanges. Buyers place bids. Sellers place asks. Trades happen when prices match.

The strength is precision. Order books can work well for active markets, advanced trading and derivatives. They allow limit orders, visible depth and more familiar trading mechanics for professional users.

But the weakness is that order books need constant liquidity. They depend on active market makers and fast updates. Fully on-chain order books can also be expensive or slow on some networks, which is why many systems use hybrid designs.

Order books can be effective, but they are not always the best fit for long-tail assets or fragmented liquidity.

Managed liquidity vaultsManaged vaults make liquidity provision easier. Instead of choosing pools or ranges manually, LPs deposit assets into a vault. The strategy then manages allocation, rebalancing and execution.

The strength is convenience. Users do not need to manage every position themselves. This can make advanced LP strategies more accessible.

But the weakness is that capital is still usually committed to one strategy. If the strategy does not capture enough flow, the capital may still be underused. LPs also take on strategy risk and depend on the manager or automation behind the vault.

Managed vaults reduce manual work. They do not remove the deeper issue of capital being locked into separate structures.

Professional market makersProfessional market makers provide liquidity using inventory, pricing systems and risk management.

They can quote prices, support larger trades and source assets from different venues. The strength is execution quality. Market makers can be especially useful where public liquidity is thin. They can help support new assets, larger trades and intent-based execution.

But the weakness is availability. Market-maker liquidity depends on inventory, risk appetite and market conditions. During volatile periods, spreads can widen or liquidity can disappear. This makes market makers an important part of DeFi, but not a universal answer.

The shared problem: fragmentationEvery liquidity model has pushed DeFi forward in its own way. AMMs made decentralized trading accessible. Concentrated liquidity improved capital efficiency. Stable pools reduced slippage for similar assets, while order books brought more advanced trading capabilities. Vaults simplified liquidity management, market makers improved execution and intent-based systems made routing more flexible. Aggregators then connected fragmented liquidity across multiple venues.

Yet the same challenge remains. Liquidity is still spread across different pools, chains, strategies and trading venues. LPs must decide in advance where to deploy their capital, and if demand emerges elsewhere, that liquidity may never be used. As a result, there is often a gap between deposited liquidity and useful liquidity. A protocol may report high TVL, but only a fraction of that capital may actually be available when traders need it most.

From locked liquidity to useful liquidityThe next phase of DeFi liquidity should not be measured only by how much capital is locked. The better question is: how much of that capital can actually be used?

Useful liquidity is liquidity that can support execution when demand appears. It is not just sitting in a pool. It is available, active and connected to real trading flow. That shift matters for everyone.

For traders, it can mean better prices and lower price impact. For LPs, it can mean better capital utilization. For builders, it can mean less need to compete for isolated deposits. For DeFi, it can mean more efficient markets.

Liquidity provision is evolvingThere is no single perfect liquidity model. Each approach solves part of the problem and introduces its own trade-offs.

The important trend is clear: DeFi is moving away from simple locked capital and toward more flexible liquidity infrastructure.

That does not mean existing models disappear. AMMs, stable pools, vaults, market makers and aggregators will continue to matter.

But the market is starting to demand more. Liquidity needs to be easier to access, less fragmented and more productive. One promising direction is shared liquidity: capital that is not locked into one isolated pool or strategy, but can support multiple opportunities at the same time.

For LPs, this could mean better utilization. For traders, it could mean deeper and more available liquidity. For builders, it could reduce the need to compete for separate deposits across every venue.

Capital should not just sit on-chain. It should work where demand appears. That is the next challenge for DeFi liquidity - and one of the most important areas for the industry to solve.

Explore 1inch to access efficient routing across DeFi liquidity.

Lido DAO (LDO) extends a four-day rally with nearly 4% gains on Thursday, emerging as a top performer so far this week. Speculative demand for the LDO token is on the rise, increasing its Open Interest by 30% over the last 24 hours amid ongoing on-chain voting for the LIP-33 and LIP-35 mainnet upgrades. 

Technically, LDO must exceed its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $0.4076 around $0.4076 to reinstate a bullish trend reversal. 

Retail demand builds amid voting over Lido DAO’s mainnet upgradesLido DAO is gaining retail strength ahead of its new mainnet upgrades, LIP-33 and LIP-35, which include new versions of the curated module and community staking module v3. The on-chain voting for these upgrades will end on Friday, 14:00 UTC. In addition, off-chain voting for user proposals, called Snapshots on Lido, for a permissionless module for validators and a penalty framework for node operators is also live. 

CoinGlass data show that LDO futures Open Interest (OI) is up 30% over the last 24 hours to $75.14 million, indicating a significant surge in leverage-driven positional buildup. The funding rate of 0.0044% remains positive but down from 0.0093% the previous day, indicating a drop in bullish demand. At the same time, the volume is up 45% to $110.03 million, reaffirming increased trading activity, likely driven by speculation around its recent recovery.

LDO derivatives data. Source: CoinGlassTechnical outlook: Will LDO rise to $0.40?Lido DAO extends a steady recovery above its 50-day EMA at $0.2992 over the last four days. At the time of writing, LDO is up roughly 4% on Thursday, potentially targeting its 200-day EMA at $0.4076.

From a technical perspective, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, measured from $0.4700 to $0.2341, at $0.4048, reinforces the overhead 200-day EMA barrier. A decisive close above this zone would target the previous swing high near $0.4700.

Momentum is stretched, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 76 hovering in overbought territory. At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds an upward trend with its signal line in positive territory, together hinting that buyers remain in control amid risks of corrective pauses.

LDO/USDT daily price chart.Looking down, the 50% retracement at $0.3317, followed by the 50-day EMA at $0.2992, serves as support levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Intel stock sank roughly 8% on July 15, closing near $103 despite ASML confirming a major milestone for its foundry business and its most advanced manufacturing node.

The collapse revived an old Wall Street joke, since Jim Cramer had praised the stock hours earlier.

The Inverse Cramer Effect Strikes IntelThe Inverse Cramer Effect describes the perceived pattern in which stocks tumble shortly after CNBC host Jim Cramer publicly recommends them. Traders treat the phenomenon as a running joke rather than an actual strategy, yet July 15 delivered textbook material for the believers.

Cramer called Intel his favorite stock earlier that morning, highlighting its role as a key ASML customer. Hours later, the shares collapsed, and social media wasted absolutely no time reviving the old meme.

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The numbers behind the session explain the drama. Intel opened above $109, hit an intraday low near $99, and closed around $103, according to TradingView data. The stock shed more than $4.77 against Tuesday’s close of roughly $107.76.

The irony runs much deeper than pure timing. ASML announced that same day that Intel Foundry now uses its High-NA EUV technology in high-volume production for part of the Panther Lake processors, branded Core Ultra Series 3.

That milestone matters for the 18A node and strengthens Intel’s position in advanced lithography. Good news, however, proved completely useless against the broader market mood on Wednesday.

Why Did Intel Fall Despite the Good NewsMacroeconomic conditions ultimately dominated the entire session. Hotter-than-expected inflation data trimmed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, pressuring the entire technology and semiconductor sector throughout the session.

Intel also arrived at the session looking exhausted. The stock had rallied more than 300% over the past year, leaving it clearly exposed to profit-taking. Doubts about the sustainability of artificial intelligence spending added yet another layer of caution among investors.

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Intel (INTC) Stock Price Performance. Source: TradingViewThe company’s underlying strategic progress remains real enough. Intel committed $5.7 billion to expand production capacity in Ireland and continues advancing its most sophisticated manufacturing nodes.

Investors, though, keep demanding much harder evidence. Their checklist includes margins, manufacturing yields, and external customers for the foundry business, not just technological milestones announced by its partners.

Attention now shifts toward the second-quarter results, scheduled for July 23. The July 15 session exposed how sensitive Intel remains to macroeconomic and sentiment-driven swings, even when technical catalysts favor the company.

In a sector as volatile as semiconductors, operational wins can easily vanish under a hostile market backdrop.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the growth rate of storage prices will peak in Q4 this year.

Morgan Stanley forecasts that the year-on-year growth rate of DRAM contract prices will peak in the fourth quarter of 2026, after which it may decline sharply. It will be difficult to replicate the previous scenario of a four-fold annual increase, and the valuations of storage companies (12-month forward price-to-book ratio) are awaiting revaluation.

12 minutes ago

Alpaca closes $135 million funding round led by Peak XV.

Alpaca, an API broker providing stocks, options and cryptocurrencies to developers, announced it has closed a $135 million funding round led by Peak XV, with participation from Elefund, Opera Tech Ventures and Unbound. The new capital will be used to expand its agency-first brokerage infrastructure for tokenized markets and AI-native financial services. Alpaca’s total funding has reached $435 million, including debt financing primarily from Payward, parent company of global digital asset platform Kraken, and BMO.

12 minutes ago

US initial jobless claims for the week ended July 11 came in at 208,000, with market expectations standing at 217,000.

US initial jobless claims for the week ending July 11 totaled 208,000, against a market forecast of 217,000, while the prior week's reading was revised from 215,000 to 216,000. (Jinshi)

12 minutes ago

DeepSeek Valued at Over 350 Billion Yuan

Kairun Co., Ltd.’s investment progress announcement released on the evening of the 16th unexpectedly revealed the latest market valuation of leading domestic AI enterprise DeepSeek. Calculated based on the announcement data, DeepSeek’s post-money valuation for this financing round has climbed to around 351 billion yuan. A reporter confirmed with sources close to DeepSeek that following the completion of this round, the company has now initiated its second round of financing; however, whether it will pursue a listing on the STAR Market by the end of the year remains undecided.

12 minutes ago

Bank of America raises JPMorgan Chase’s price target to $420, noting the stock still has upside potential after its strong earnings report.

According to CNBC, Bank of America reiterated its 'Buy' rating on JPMorgan Chase stock and raised its price target for the firm from $408 to $420, implying roughly 21% upside from Wednesday’s closing price, following JPMorgan’s release of strong second-quarter results. JPMorgan’s adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the second quarter came in at $6.14, beating Wall Street’s consensus estimate of $5.85; revenue totaled $52.42 billion, also exceeding the forecast of $50.19 billion. Bank of America analyst Ebrahim Poonawala noted that JPMorgan holds advantages in capital markets operations, AI capital expenditure, digital asset adoption, operating leverage, and capital flexibility, with its large-scale investments spanning branches, wealth management, and online banking in the UK and Europe. JPMorgan’s management also stated that the U.S. real economy has shown resilience amid multiple macroeconomic shocks. Bank of America believes that the resilience of consumers and businesses to the high-interest rate environment may continue to support JPMorgan’s performance and stock price. The stock has rallied nearly 8% so far this year.

12 minutes ago

Iran secretly ordered the Houthi armed group to blockade the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the U.S. attacks Iran's power facilities.

According to a Reuters report, three sources disclosed that Iran has asked Yemen’s Houthi movement to prepare to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the U.S. attacks Iran’s power infrastructure, which would pose a new major threat to global energy supplies. The plan has been discussed within Iran’s leadership, and the information has been conveyed to Iran’s Houthi allies. Sources added that the Houthis have recently received Tehran’s request, though they did not provide further details on how the request was communicated, nor confirm whether it was made following U.S. President Donald Trump’s Tuesday threat to strike Iran’s power infrastructure. (Source: Jinshi)

12 minutes ago

Key Takeaways Decentralized trading platform Ostium on Arbitrum suffered a security breach resulting in losses between $18 and $22 million. The perpetrator exploited the platform’s oracle mechanism by submitting price data with falsified future timestamps. Fraudulent trades appeared profitable due to the manipulation, causing the liquidity vault to dispense $18 million in USDC. All trading activity has been suspended as Ostium conducts a thorough investigation, with users advised to revoke smart contract permissions. This incident continues a troubling trend of oracle-related vulnerabilities affecting DeFi platforms in 2025 and 2026. On July 15, Ostium—a decentralized perpetual futures platform operating on Arbitrum—suspended all trading operations following a sophisticated attack that resulted in approximately $18 million in USDC being withdrawn from its liquidity reserves.

RWA Perpetual Protocol Ostium Suffers Suspected $18 Million Exploit on Arbitrum

Security firm Blockaid said it detected an exploit involving Ostium Vault on Arbitrum. According to Blockaid, the attacker used a registered PriceUpKeep forwarder and future-dated authorized oracle… pic.twitter.com/2DfIGrRIoR

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 15, 2026

Multiple blockchain security organizations, including Blockaid and CertiK, detected and reported the breach. While Blockaid assessed the damage at approximately $18 million, CertiK’s analysis suggested the total could reach $22 million. Ostium’s team has acknowledged the incident but has yet to release official loss figures pending their ongoing investigation.

The vulnerability exploited in this attack centered on Ostium’s oracle infrastructure—the critical system responsible for feeding external market price information to the decentralized platform.

Blockaid’s analysis revealed that the attacker leveraged a legitimate component within Ostium’s automated pricing mechanism known as the PriceUpKeep forwarder. This module functions as the gateway for transmitting real-time asset valuations onto the blockchain during trade execution.

The malicious actor submitted oracle price updates containing fabricated timestamps set to future dates. This temporal manipulation caused unprofitable positions to register as successful trades, subsequently prompting the vault’s smart contract to release approximately $18 million in USDC.

In a statement shared on X, Ostium announced the immediate suspension of trading following the detection of irregularities in its vault system. The platform emphasized user protection, stating: “With user security being our first concern, we recommend that all users temporarily revoke approvals for our contracts until we can further investigate the recent incident.”

Technical Details of the Oracle Breach Ostium’s pricing infrastructure relies on Gelato, an external automation service, to deliver real-world asset valuation data to the blockchain. The PriceUpKeep smart contract serves as the central mechanism coordinating these price refresh operations.

The attacker successfully obtained access to an authorized position within this framework, enabling them to introduce counterfeit pricing information with incorrect timing parameters. This manipulation deceived the protocol into validating false profitable positions, triggering unauthorized fund releases from the treasury.

The platform facilitates leveraged trading across multiple asset classes including commodities, foreign exchange, stock indices, and digital currencies, offering leverage ratios up to 200x with settlements denominated in USDC.

Rising Trend of Oracle-Based Exploits This security breach occurred merely one week after Summer.fi experienced a similar attack methodology that resulted in $6 million in stolen funds. Cybersecurity experts note an emerging pattern where malicious actors increasingly focus on exploiting offchain infrastructure components like oracle systems rather than targeting smart contract vulnerabilities directly.

According to data compiled by DeFiLlama, cryptocurrency-related hacking incidents generated losses approaching $630 million during April alone—marking the highest single-month total since February 2025. Decentralized finance protocols bore the majority of these losses.

Prior to this exploit, Ostium had secured $27.8 million in total capital, including a substantial $24 million Series A funding round jointly led by General Catalyst and Jump Crypto in late 2025. The platform had facilitated more than $50 billion in aggregate trading volume before the security incident.

JPMorgan research analysts noted in April that infrastructure and bridge security vulnerabilities continue to represent significant obstacles for DeFi’s progression toward mainstream institutional acceptance.

Ostium’s security review and investigation remain in progress.

Bitcoin investor Lark Davis has called Cardano, Polkadot, Ethereum Classic, and Arbitrum the most overvalued cryptocurrencies in the top 100 coins list. Despite carrying multi billion dollar valuations, these projects still show weak network activity and low revenue.

According to Davis, these networks have good technology in some cases, but their ecosystems have failed to generate enough demand to justify their market caps.

Top Four Altcoins That Are OvervaluedAccording to Davis, these networks have good technology in some cases, but their ecosystems have failed to generate enough demand to justify their market caps.

Cardano Still Struggles to Attract UsersCardano topped Davis’ list, as he pointed out that the network processes around 30,000 transactions per day, has only 10,000 daily active addresses, and generates roughly $2,000 in daily application revenue despite maintaining a market cap of around $6 billion.

Token Terminal data shows that Cardano aonly generate only $1.9 million in revenue fees, far behind networks like Solana and Tron, which generate more than $603 million and $581 million in weekly revenue, respectively.

Davis questioned why Cardano continues to carry such a large valuation if network usage remains relatively low. Meanwhile, ADA is trading near $0.162, still almost 95% below its all-time high.

Polkadot’s Token Model Faces CriticismDavis believes Polkadot’s biggest issue is not its technology but its token utility. He noted that Polkadot’s main chain records only around 2,400 daily active users, while its TVL remains close to $40 million. 

By comparison, many competing Layer-1 and Layer-2 networks process significantly more users and lock billions of dollars in DeFi.

According to Davis, governance, staking, and coretime sales have failed to create enough real demand for the DOT token.

As of now, DOT currently trades around $0.838, down nearly 98.5% from its all-time high.

Ethereum Classic and Arbitrum Also Make the ListDavis also criticized Ethereum Classic, saying the blockchain has become a “ghost town.” Despite maintaining a market capitalization above $1.1 billion, Ethereum Classic has only around 1,300 daily active addresses, approximately $150,000 in TVL, and roughly $72,000 in on-chain stablecoins. 

As of now, ETC trades near $6.97, almost 96% below its record high.

Lastly, Davis aimed for Arbitrum (ARB). While he acknowledged that Arbitrum has strong blockchain technology, he argued that the ARB token does not capture enough value because the revenue generated by Offchain Labs does not directly benefit token holders.

Although Arbitrum serves around 2.2 million monthly active users and generates nearly $570,000 in monthly revenue, Davis believes the governance token itself has very limited use. ARB currently trades near $0.0866, down more than 96% from its all-time high.

While Davis believes these projects remain heavily overvalued, supporters argue that market value is not based only on current activity. 

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HTX H1 2026 Performance Report: Nearly $900 Billion in Trading Volume

TLDR Bitcoin retreated to $64,000 after reaching a three-week high near $65,600. Ethereum fell below $1,900 after briefly approaching a six-week peak of $1,950. Lower-than-expected US inflation data initially supported gains across the crypto market. Bitcoin maintained a 56.7% market dominance despite its latest price decline. Ondo gained 17%, while Bitcoin Cash and DeXe led losses among larger cryptocurrencies. Total cryptocurrency market capitalization dropped by $40 billion to approximately $2.27 trillion. Bitcoin price returned to $64,000 after briefly reaching a three-week high near $65,600. Ethereum also reversed from a six-week peak near $1,950 and slipped below $1,900. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market lost about $40 billion from its latest daily peak.

Bitcoin Reverses After CPI-Fueled Advance Bitcoin price had traded near $64,000 during a relatively calm and positive weekend. However, renewed tension between the United States and Iran pressured markets when trading resumed. Bitcoin then fell below $62,000 by Tuesday morning as traders assessed the weekend strikes.

Bitcoin price recovered sharply after June inflation figures came below market expectations. It reclaimed $64,000 and later crossed $65,000 as buying activity strengthened across major exchanges. The advance then peaked near $65,600, marking Bitcoin’s highest level in roughly three weeks.

Sellers regained control after the peak, and the Bitcoin price dropped by about $1,500. The asset returned to approximately $64,000, erasing much of the inflation-driven increase. Its market value also declined to about $1.285 trillion, according to CoinGecko data.

Ethereum Retreats From Six-Week High Ethereum outperformed several large-cap assets as it climbed toward $1,950 during the broader rebound. The move placed ETH at its highest level since early June. However, selling pressure later pushed the token below the $1,900 mark.

Bitcoin price remained comparatively stable while Ethereum recorded the stronger short-term move. BNB edged closer to $580, but XRP slipped slightly while contesting the $1.10 level. These mixed results showed limited follow-through among several leading alternative cryptocurrencies.

Solana, Tron, Hyperliquid, Rain, Zcash, Canton, Litecoin, and Cardano all posted daily losses. Bitcoin Cash and DeXe recorded sharper declines among larger assets. In contrast, Ondo gained about 17% as the Bitcoin price stabilized near $64,000.

Crypto Market Value Declines The total cryptocurrency market value fell by roughly $40 billion from its daily peak. It later stood near $2.270 trillion as selling spread across several major tokens. The Bitcoin price decline contributed to the broader pullback after the earlier market advance.

Bitcoin maintained a 56.7% share of the total cryptocurrency market despite the decline. Therefore, its dominance stayed unchanged even as several alternative assets recorded deeper losses. The Bitcoin price remained above levels seen during Tuesday’s early decline below $62,000.

The market ended the period with Bitcoin near $64,000 and Ethereum below $1,900. The Bitcoin price held part of its CPI-driven recovery but remained below Wednesday’s three-week peak. Overall market value also stayed lower as the Bitcoin price rally lost momentum.

US-Iran War Reignites — and Traders See 92% Odds of $4 Gas

The $INDEX token has surged over 150% in 24 hours, with its market cap crossing $18 million. The rally follows fresh comments from Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev inviting developers to build with tokenized stocks and real-world assets (RWAs) on Robinhood Chain’s growing ecosystem.

How Robinhood Chain’s $INDEX Turns Chain Fees Into Stock Ownership Early reports on X put the surge down to growing awareness of $INDEX’s unique fee-to-stock yield mechanism, a model that turns on-chain trading activity directly into real stock exposure for holders.

🚨ROBINHOOD CHAIN TOKEN $INDEX SURGES 150%

The market cap of Robinhood Chain ecosystem token $INDEX has climbed above $18 million, as the token surges 150% over the past 24 hours.

The rally appears to have been fueled by Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev’s latest comments inviting… pic.twitter.com/VMUnG97rLo

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) July 16, 2026

The $INDEX token is an ecosystem token on Robinhood Chain, the Arbitrum-based Layer 2 blockchain that went live on July 1, 2026. Its core mechanic is straightforward but powerful.

Trading and protocol fees generated across the chain are pooled and used to purchase Robinhood Stock Tokens, on-chain representations of equities like NVDA, GOOG, and AAPL, and those tokens are then distributed as rewards to $INDEX holders.

This makes $INDEX one of the first crypto tokens to offer real, equity-backed yield rather than inflationary token rewards.

The mechanism converts chain activity into tangible stock exposure. As Robinhood Chain processes more volume, $INDEX holders stand to receive more stock tokens.

The backdrop matters here. As CoinGape reported, Robinhood Chain Flipped Hyperliquid in 24-Hour DEX Volume just days after launch, recording over $560 million in a single day.

The chain also Hit 7.6 Million Daily Transactions, closing in fast on Base’s numbers. That kind of fee-generating activity is exactly what powers $INDEX’s stock-reward pool.

Vlad Tenev’s Developer Push Lights the Fuse The immediate trigger for the $INDEX token rally was a post on X by Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev, who openly invited developers to build integrations with tokenized stocks and RWAs on the chain.

Tenev had earlier written: “While we’re building Robinhood Chain to be the best chain for RWA … it works great for memes too.”

While we’re building robinhood chain to be the best chain for RWA … it works great for memes too

— Vlad Tenev (@vladtenev) July 8, 2026

That framing, serious financial infrastructure that also welcomes community tokens, is exactly the narrative environment where $INDEX thrives.
Robinhood Chain has already Flipped Base to No. 2 on Uniswap, trailing only Ethereum. And meme coins like CASHCAT and HOODIE rallied among the Top Robinhood Chain Tokens This Week, showing that retail interest in the ecosystem remains strong.

$INDEX benefits from both sides of that story. High retail activity means more fees. More fees mean more Stock Tokens purchased for holders.
The $INDEX token is, in that sense, a direct bet on the entire chain’s growth, with on-chain stock exposure as the payoff.

Robinhood Chain has processed Over $3 Billion in Weekly DEX Volume, making it one of the fastest-growing Layer 2 ecosystems in 2026.

Whether the $INDEX token’s 150% surge holds will depend on how sustainable that volume is and whether the fee pool grows large enough to make the stock-reward mechanism genuinely meaningful for holders at scale.

Learn how to earn passive income with crypto through staking, lending, and more.

Key Takeaways Solana is currently changing hands around $78, representing approximately 30% gains from June’s bottom at $60.13 The token has reclaimed territory above its 50-day EMA positioned at $76.82, though the $81.50 trendline remains a barrier Speculative interest is climbing with derivatives volume increasing 15%, while ETF channels show no new capital for 48 hours Technical analysis reveals a SuperTrend buy indication—the first observed since October 2025 Japanese financial giant SBI Holdings has announced collaboration to develop blockchain-based financial systems Solana has demonstrated consistent upward momentum throughout the current week, hovering around the $78 mark following a substantial 30% appreciation from its June bottom at $60.13. This recovery phase has successfully pushed SOL above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) positioned at $76.82, establishing this technical level as immediate price support.

Solana (SOL) Price Speculative trading activity appears to be fueling this upward movement. According to CoinGlass analytics, derivatives market volume surged 15% to reach $6.90 billion over the last 24-hour period, while Open Interest maintained stability around $4.93 billion. The current funding rate stands at 0.0040%, indicating modest bullish sentiment among leveraged traders.

Conversely, institutional participation remains subdued. Exchange-traded fund products tracking Solana have registered consecutive days without fresh capital inflows this week, indicating that traditional finance participants are adopting a wait-and-see approach.

Source: SoSoValue The critical price point under observation is $81.50. This level coincides with a declining trendline, and a definitive daily candle closure above this threshold would provide the first technical validation that the bearish trajectory is reversing. Should bulls successfully breach this barrier, subsequent price objectives include $83.81, followed by the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $88.56.

Critical Resistance Zone Between $89 and $92 A more substantial challenge awaits at higher levels. The $89 to $92 price corridor has repeatedly repelled upward advances since March, establishing it as a formidable obstacle that bulls must overcome before $100 becomes a realistic target. The 200-day EMA currently positioned at $94.52 further reinforces this resistance cluster.

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez highlighted that the SuperTrend technical indicator has generated its inaugural buy signal since October 2025. His technical assessment suggests potential price objectives near $96 and $121 if consistent purchasing pressure materializes.

SOLANA TURNED BULLISH

The ATR trailing stop has flipped below price, marking the first SuperTrend buy signal since October 10.

If buying pressure continues to build, $SOL could rally toward $96 or even $121. However, $60 remains the key level to watch.

A break below that… https://t.co/Femtlawn2r pic.twitter.com/pJSFngWZiN

— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 15, 2026

Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe emphasized the significance of the present price zone, stating on X that maintaining current levels could facilitate a move toward $120 over the upcoming months. He attributed this optimistic outlook to the recent market-wide recovery that has improved overall trading conditions.

$SOL holds this crucial level for support and makes it therefore increasingly more likely that it continues to run to $120 in the coming 1-2 months. https://t.co/PPFJXcDUIi

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 15, 2026

Strategic Alliance with SBI Holdings Solana received additional positive momentum through a newly announced institutional collaboration. SBI Holdings, a prominent Japanese financial services corporation, has entered into a strategic partnership with the Solana network to develop blockchain-based financial infrastructure. This initiative encompasses stablecoin integration, real-world asset tokenization, international settlement systems, and payment solutions for artificial intelligence agents.

Decentralized exchange platforms operating on Solana processed approximately $4.15 billion in trading volume during a 24-hour measurement period, positioning the network favorably compared to competing blockchain ecosystems in terms of this performance metric.

Regarding downside scenarios, the $74–$75 price band represents the crucial support area requiring attention. Technical analyst BitGuru identified this zone on X as a significant near-term foundation. A breakdown beneath this range could trigger downward movement toward $68.88, with June’s low at $60.13 serving as the more substantial structural support level.

The Relative Strength Index currently registers near 54, demonstrating modest positive momentum while remaining outside overbought territory. The MACD indicator is converging with its signal line, maintaining a relatively neutral technical posture.

The Cardano ecosystem has suffered another setback after a decentralized exchange powered by Hydra announced that it is suspending operations indefinitely due to operational constraints.

DeltaDeFi, the first Hydra Layer 2-powered DEX on Cardano, confirmed the decision in an operational update. The announcement has reignited concerns across the Cardano community, with many viewing it as the latest addition to a growing list of ecosystem projects that have either shut down or reduced operations in recent months.

DeltaDeFi Suspends Development and Maintenance In an update shared with its community, the DeltaDeFi team revealed that it had exhausted its operational runway. This left it with no choice but to pause the project effectively immediately.

As a result, the team will suspend both platform development and active maintenance until further notice. During the downtime, the developers plan to evaluate strategies that could enable the project to resume operations in the future.

Meanwhile, DeltaDeFi announced plans to return its remaining funds to users once sufficient minimum UTXO becomes available to process withdrawals. The team also advised users who do not automatically receive their funds to contact the developers through the project’s X account or Discord server for assistance.

How DeltaDeFi Advanced Cardano’s Hydra Ecosystem DeltaDeFi stands out from many decentralized exchanges by building on Hydra, Cardano’s Layer-2 scaling solution designed to increase transaction throughput while reducing settlement times.

Unlike most Cardano DEXs that rely primarily on automated market makers (AMMs), DeltaDeFi adopted an order-book-based trading model. This approach delivered a trading experience closer to traditional financial markets while preserving the benefits of decentralized infrastructure.

The platform promoted features such as sub-second transaction settlement, high-speed order execution, and improved trading efficiency through Hydra’s scaling capabilities. With the project’s suspension, Cardano loses one of its most prominent real-world demonstrations of Hydra’s decentralized finance (DeFi) potential.

It bears mentioning that Hydra recently introduced v2.2.0, focused on real-world use cases, enhanced benchmarking, and optimized snapshot latency. 

Another Challenge for Cardano Builders DeltaDeFi’s decision adds to a growing list of Cardano projects that have recently scaled back operations or exited the ecosystem altogether. Projects including JPG Store, TapTools, and contributors such as Chicken have previously cited challenges ranging from rising operational expenses and limited funding to long-term developer sustainability.

Although each project has faced its own circumstances, several common themes have emerged. These include shrinking funding opportunities, increasing operating costs, prolonged market weakness, and ongoing ecosystem governance challenges.

DeltaDeFi’s operational pause reinforces concerns that even technically innovative projects on Cardano continue to face significant sustainability hurdles despite ongoing protocol upgrades and ecosystem development. 

DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

Ondo Finance [ONDO] announced the launch of the first tokenized stock representations backed by DTC tokenized entitlements. Through this initiative, Ondo Finance joins a host of other TradFi giants, including BlackRock, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs, in participating in “DTCC’s largest tokenization initiative to date”.

Source: Ondo Finance on X Ian de Bode, CEO of Ondo Finance, said

Ondo is the only company simultaneously building all pathways for US securities tokenization. Today’s initiative with DTCC demonstrates that Ondo Stocks infrastructure is purpose-built to interoperate with institutional market infrastructure, not to compete with it.

The announcement has helped bolster the bullish sentiment around the decentralized finance platform and its native token, ONDO. The altcoin has rallied 5.6% in the past 24 hours, with an uptick of 51.7% to its daily trading volume.

The triangle pattern and an impending ONDO breakout Source: ONDO/USDT on TradingView The descending triangle pattern [green] came amid ONDO’s inability to flip the long-term bearish swing structure bullishly. The $0.47 swing high was tested but not convincingly breached.

As things stand, the bearish long-term outlook for the altcoin remains intact.

Yet, the descending triangle could change things around. The $0.31 zone has been defended since June. At the time of writing, the $0.336 local resistance zone has kept bulls from taking prices higher.

Neither the CMF nor the OBV signaled steady buying pressure on the altcoin. Unless proven otherwise, it would be prudent for ONDO swing traders to be cautious of a bullish outcome.

Traders’ call to action- Buy if… Source: ONDO/USDT on TradingView The H4 swing structure was also bearish. The local resistance zone coincided with the 50% retracement level at $0.343. This divided the premium and discount areas for swing traders.

A bullish breakout from the descending triangle pattern could still face rejection from the discount area overhead and be unable to climb past $0.372 and $0.394 resistances.

It would be best for traders and investors to wait for the market to show its hand. Trying to go long right now has its risks.

Final Summary News of Ondo’s launch of its first tokenized stock representations based on DTCC tokenized entitlements has buoyed market confidence. Volume trends and overarching price action drew question marks over the token’s ability to rally to $0.40 or higher.

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The program has been introduced on Robinhood Chain.

Updated 00:30 EDT July 16, 2026

Virtuals Protocol [VIRTUAL] has announced customizable tokenized indexes on Robinhood Chain! This would allow users to combine multiple assets into a single token.

Users can also create and manage their own asset basket while earning fees from its use.

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Home Altcoin Virtuals Protocol announces new tokenized index model – Details

Hyperion DeFi, the NASDAQ-listed company trading under HYPD, is putting 500,000 staked HYPE tokens to work. The tokens are being deployed to Skew Technologies through a HYPE Asset Use Service (HAUS) agreement, giving Skew the economic backing it needs to launch perpetual futures markets on Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 permissionless infrastructure.

In return, Hyperion gets equity ownership in Skew plus a cut of the revenues generated from listing services. The revenue share has both fixed and scaling components, meaning Hyperion earns a baseline regardless of how much volume Skew’s new markets attract, while also participating in the upside if trading activity takes off.

How the deal actually works HIP-3, which went live on October 13, 2025, requires anyone deploying a new market to maintain 500,000 staked HYPE as what’s called “alignment capital.” That’s a meaningful barrier to entry, designed to ensure deployers have real skin in the game and face slashing risks if they misbehave.

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Through the HAUS agreement, effective July 15, 2026, Hyperion essentially lends its staked position to Skew, which can then spin up new HIP-3 perpetual futures markets without needing to source and lock up half a million HYPE tokens on its own.

Skew’s initial focus will be on perpetual futures through HIP-3, with plans to eventually expand into outcome-based markets under HIP-4 once the core perps business reaches operational stability.

Why Hyperion is betting big on infrastructure Hyperion DeFi holds the distinction of being the first US publicly listed company built around the Hyperliquid ecosystem. Hyperion CEO Hyunsu Jung has pointed to growing global demand for HIP-3 launches as a key driver behind the company’s HAUS strategy.

This isn’t Hyperion’s first HAUS agreement. The company previously partnered with Felix Foundation in late 2025 under a similar arrangement. Recent reports also indicate Hyperion has been unwinding some of its other HYPE deployment deals.

What Skew brings to the table Skew Technologies is founded by a team with experience in financial markets and institutional trading. David Gil, Skew’s founder, has framed this partnership as a foundation for innovative institutional trading products, suggesting the company sees HIP-3 as a launchpad rather than an endpoint.

What this means for investors For Hyperion shareholders, each HAUS agreement transforms staked tokens into equity positions and revenue streams. The fixed component of the revenue share provides downside protection, while the scaling component offers leverage to trading volume growth.

The risk side of the equation centers on slashing. HIP-3’s alignment capital is actively at risk. If a market operator behaves badly or a technical failure triggers slashing conditions, Hyperion could lose a substantial portion of its deployed capital.

Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

Binance launches three U.S. ETF perpetual contracts, offering up to 25x leverage.

According to official announcements, Binance has launched multiple USDT-margined TradFi perpetual contracts, including MUUUSDT, SOXSUSDT, and TZAUSDT perpetual contracts. MUUUSDT corresponds to Direxion Daily MU Bull 2X ETF (MUU), which tracks the daily 2x return performance of Micron Technology. SOXSUSDT corresponds to Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS), tracking the daily 3x inverse performance of the NYSE Semiconductor Index. TZAUSDT corresponds to Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA), tracking the daily 3x inverse performance of the Russell 2000 Index.

11 minutes ago

Ostium trading remains suspended, with user margin still frozen.

Perpetual decentralized exchange (Perp DEX) Ostium stated in a post that platform trading remains suspended following the security incident. User positions are still open but cannot be modified temporarily; trading margin remains in the frozen smart contract and has not been moved. Ostium added that its team is continuing to coordinate with relevant authorities, SEAL 911, and multiple security researchers, and will release updates on the timeline for smart contract activity resumption and fund recovery. According to PeckShield’s monitoring, Ostium’s public OLP vault was hacked for approximately 24 million USDC, with the attacker subsequently converting the funds to around 12,100 ETH, of which about 10,500 ETH has been transferred to Tornado Cash.

11 minutes ago

The China-South Korea Semiconductor ETF on the A-share market saw its afternoon decline widen to 5%.

According to market data, the semiconductor sector in China's A-share market continued to weaken in the afternoon, with the decline of China-South Korea semiconductor-related ETFs expanding to 5%.

11 minutes ago

TSMC expects demand to remain strong in Q3, with its full-year revenue coming in higher than earlier forecasts.

TSMC (TSM.N) announced that it expects its third-quarter revenue this year to range between $44.6 billion and $45.8 billion, compared to its Q3 2025 revenue of $33.1 billion. The chipmaker projects demand will remain strong in the third quarter, and forecasts its U.S. dollar-denominated revenue growth for 2026 will be slightly above 40%, an upward revision from its earlier forecast of over 30%.

11 minutes ago

HTX DAO completes Q2 token burn, with HTX’s cumulative burn exceeding 100 trillion tokens.

According to an official announcement from HTX DAO, the second-quarter 2026 HTX token burn was completed on July 15. On-chain data shows that a total of 7,474,935,439,560 HTX tokens were burned in this round, worth over $13.6 million. To date, the cumulative amount of HTX burned and donated has reached 117.79 trillion tokens. Burn details: https://tronscan.org/transaction/06b58562732cbff13ce6a3b2a0556f6ffefd158b4cc4313968750923c779810d/overview. In the first half of this year, HTX DAO’s two-quarter combined burn exceeded $32.82 million. Against the backdrop of intensified market liquidity competition this year, HTX has still been able to consistently execute quarterly burns worth tens of millions of dollars, showcasing strong operational resilience and anti-cyclical capabilities.

11 minutes ago

Bitget has added 16 US stock tokens (rTokens), including Kroger, Jabil, and other companies.

Bitget has launched 16 US stock tokens, including rXBI (S&P Biotech ETF-SPDR), rDIA (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust), rKSTR (SSE STAR 50 Index ETF), rJBL (Jabil), rKR (Kroger), covering sectors such as finance, healthcare, information technology and industrials. The rTokens, marked with the prefix "r" plus stock tickers (e.g., NVIDIA is rNVDA), are issued by Reality, a licensed RWA protocol under Bitget, which connects directly to global liquidity pools like NASDAQ and NYSE via cooperation with regulated broker Alpaca. Its key features include: 1:1 reserve of underlying assets held by licensed custodians; stock dividends distributed 1:1 in token form; support for synchronous mapping of corporate actions (such as stock splits and consolidations); and positions can be used as combined margin for unified accounts and USDT-denominated contracts, allowing users to flexibly manage funds while holding global stock assets.

11 minutes ago

The broader cryptocurrency market shows early signs of recovery, with Bitcoin (BTC) testing a breakout above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) around $65,136. Improving risk appetite has investors turning toward DeFi tokens such as Ondo (ONDO) and Ether.fi (ETHFI) that emerge as best performers over the last 24 hours. 

CoinMarketCap’s Fear and Greed Index at 36 on Thursday shows a largely recovering market sentiment, up from 28 last week. 

Fear and Greed Index. Source: CoinMarketCapCould Bitcoin reclaim $65,000 amid easing geopolitical and inflation risk?Bitcoin’s near-term recovery after testing sub-$60,000 levels earlier this month aligns with the easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. In addition, the bullish US CPI data for June has reduced the odds of interest rate hikes, prompting risk-on sentiment among investors. 

Bitcoin inches closer to $65,000 on Thursday, but the EMA around $65,136 keeps the broader technical tone fragile despite a modest recovery. Momentum indicators are more constructive, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 55, hovering just above the neutral midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) maintains an uptrend with its signal line, which together suggests that downside pressure is easing but not yet strong enough to reclaim key overhead levels.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 50-day EMA at $65,136, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the way toward the $70,000 mark, followed by the 200-day EMA around $74,484.

BTC/USDT daily price chart.On the downside, initial support aligns with the horizontal level at 60,000, where a break lower would expose further weakness.

Ondo rallies on DTC-compliant tokenized stock representationsOndo reclaimed its 50-day EMA at $0.3367 with a nearly 16% rebound on Wednesday. The pair inches closer to the 200-day EMA at $0.3769, which remains an overhead barrier, keeping the near-term bias neutral to mildly constructive.

Momentum tones are supportive, with the RSI at 63 and hovering in bullish territory, while the MACD holds above its signal line, suggesting buyers still retain the upper hand despite nearby overhead supply.

A breakout above the 200-day EMA at $0.3769 could extend its rally to the $0.4524 selling zone, which has capped multiple recovery attempts over the past seven months.

ONDO/USDT daily price chart.On the downside, immediate support is at the 50-day EMA near $0.3367, where a break would likely trigger a deeper pullback and signal that the latest advance is losing traction.

Ether.fi eyes a breakout rally toward the 200-day EMAEther.Fi rises above its 50-day EMA at $0.3813 with an 11% rise on Wednesday. At the time of writing, ETHFI tests breaking above an overhead resistance trendline near $0.4400 on Thursday, potentially reinstating a bullish recovery.

However, the pair remains capped below its 200-day EMA at $0.5077, which could serve as key resistance following the trendline breakout.

The RSI at around 62 suggests firm but not yet overbought upside momentum, and the MACD remains above its signal line in the positive territory, hinting that buying pressure is still driving the recovery.

ETHFI/USDT daily price chart.Looking down, initial support is seen around the reclaimed 50-day EMA at $0.3813 as a more significant bullish defense area.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

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Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.

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Bitcoin remains under pressure, but the collapsing crypto discussion could leave room for whales to drive the next market move.

Discussion surrounding cryptocurrencies across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other social platforms has dropped to its second-lowest daily level since October 2024. This comes even as Bitcoin continues trading around the mid-$60,000 range.

According to the latest findings by Santiment, while the lack of conversation may appear bearish at first glance, it also reflects weak retail interest, which has often coincided with market turning points.

Crypto Chatter Fades The current sense of “deadness” across social timelines can feel bearish, but Santiment described this disinterest as one of crypto’s “most underrated forms of FUD,” while adding that when people stop posting, debating, and reacting to every market move, conditions become more favorable for large investors.

The analytics platform said markets can become easier for large investors to influence because fewer retail traders are actively crowding trades during periods of low engagement. “Whales don’t need a euphoric crowd to accumulate,” it explained while adding that some of crypto’s strongest rebounds have formed when retail attention was low, sentiment was exhausted, and markets faced less resistance on the way higher.

Bitcoin continues to face pressure from macroeconomic uncertainty, swings in spot ETF flows, and a cautious risk appetite. According to Santiment, when discussion rates are this low, even a modest change in demand can have a more noticeable effect on prices “than the headline mood suggests.”

While history does not guarantee another rebound, previous market cycles have repeatedly rewarded periods when whales had room to accumulate before retail investors realized the market had already begun to recover.

Macro Risks Remain Bitcoin briefly touched $65,000 before undergoing a minor pullback. It is currently trading a little above $64,500. Bitunix analyst Dean Chen believes if the crypto asset manages to hold above this level, “it stands a good chance of sustaining this upward momentum.”

You may also like: Peter Schiff: Bitcoin Holders Will Soon Regret Not Selling at Current Levels Brian Armstrong Asks if Bitcoin Bottom Is In, Crypto Community Can’t Agree Is Wrapped Bitcoin Flashing a Bullish Signal? Exchange Outflows Hit Six-Week High The stronger-than-expected CPI reading has lifted near-term market sentiment, but Bitcoin’s next move is still expected to hinge on several macroeconomic developments, Chen said.

These include whether inflation continues to cool even if energy prices rebound, whether the Federal Reserve sticks to its data-driven approach when making policy decisions, and whether changes in Japanese capital flows lead to shifts in global liquidity.

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A working paper from researchers at Stanford University and Singapore Management University has found evidence of coordinated manipulation inside Polymarket's five-minute $BTC prediction markets, raising fresh questions about the structural risks embedded in fast-settling crypto betting contracts.

How the Alleged Manipulation Worked The paper, titled "Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets" and co-authored by David Dai, Ruizhe Jia, and Shihao Yu, studied a product that launched on February 12, 2026. On that date, Polymarket introduced a binary contract that paid $1 if Bitcoin closed a five-minute window above where it opened, and $0 otherwise, with a fresh contract opening every five minutes around the clock.

Contracts settle using Chainlink price feeds at the end of each five-minute window, creating incentives to move the spot Bitcoin price just before expiry. Researchers found repeated bursts of one-sided trading on the Binance exchange that temporarily moved Bitcoin's price in the final seconds before bets closed, benefiting traders positioned in the same direction. During settlement periods exhibiting the most anomalous trading behavior, order volumes on Binance surged to roughly 3.9 times normal levels, with irregular patterns predominantly emerging during overnight hours and weekend periods when reduced liquidity creates opportunities for price influence.

Singapore Management University assistant professor Shihao Yu noted that "these contracts have a structural vulnerability" because they settle on a price that traders can move by trading the underlying asset itself. Despite Polymarket's reliance on multiple independent price oracles, contract settlements aligned with Binance pricing approximately 85% of the time throughout the research window.

Scale of the Problem and a Potential Fix Researchers calculated that wallets identified as probable manipulators accumulated approximately $8.2 million in profits across the study period. The paper estimates 821 suspected manipulators were responsible for the bulk of those gains, largely at the expense of retail participants.

The findings land at a sensitive moment for the prediction market industry, with combined monthly volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rising nearly fivefold in seven months, from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion by April 2026.

The researchers found that manipulation was largely absent in fifteen-minute contracts, suggesting that lengthening the contract horizon removes the effect and provides the market-design remedy their model and evidence support. The Stanford and Singapore Management University findings suggest that changing the settlement window length and using price-averaging methods could meaningfully reduce manipulation risk.

Sources
"Settlement Manipulation in Prediction Markets" — Working Paper (arXiv)
Polymarket Bitcoin Bets Show Signs of Price Manipulation, Stanford Study Finds — Bloomberg
Traders Took $8.2 Million From Polymarket's Five-Minute Bitcoin Bets, Study Found — Bitcoin Magazine