Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,853.14 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 37,167.04 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 429,847.80 per tola from PKR 433,509.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,853.14
10 Grams
368,521.50
Tola
429,847.80
Troy Ounce
1,146,262.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) maintains its offered tone heading into the European session on Tuesday, albeit it holds above the $4,100 mark. Crude oil prices edge higher amid renewed tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, reviving inflationary concerns. This, in turn, triggers a fresh leg up in US Treasury bond yields, offering some support to the US Dollar (USD) and weighing on the non-yielding yellow metal for the second straight day. However, receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets could act as a headwind for the Greenback and limit the downside for the bullion.
Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain high as Tehran attempts to cement strategic control and aims to collect fees from ships transiting through the critical waterway. Despite strong opposition from the US, Iran insists that the fees are for security, vessel supervision, and environmental protection, rather than tolls. Adding to this, a maritime agency reported that an oil tanker was struck by an unidentified projectile while transiting through the strait, complicating a fragile US-Iran peace deal and offering some support to crude oil prices.
Meanwhile, the soft US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for June tempered market bets that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs. In fact, traders shifted expectations from one to two Fed rate increases in 2026 to between zero and one hike. This keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the Gold. On the economic data front, the US ISM Services PMI eased to 54.0 in June from 54.5 in the previous month, matching consensus estimates and doing little to impress the USD bulls.
Investors, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's policy path. Hence, the focus now shifts to the release of the FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Apart from this, geopolitical developments would drive the USD demand and provide some impetus to the Gold. In the meantime, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the recent recovery move from the year-to-date low, touched last week, has run out of steam.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold could accelerate the intraday fall once the $4,100 mark is brokenThe XAU/USD pair keeps a bearish near-term bias below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,489.97 and within a descending channel. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has turned positive, with the MACD line above the signal line and an expanding positive histogram. This suggests recovering bullish momentum, though not yet strong enough to challenge the dominant overhead structure. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.16 remains below the 50 line, hinting at a still neutral to mildly bearish tone despite the recent bounce.
Meanwhile, $4,100 could act as a tentative floor ahead of more meaningful support at the channel bottom near $3,844.34, where a deeper slide would meet firmer demand. On the topside, immediate resistance appears at the top boundary of the descending channel near $4,296.64, where any recovery is likely to stall initially. This is followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,489.97 and a higher structural barrier near $4,572.41.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Interest rates FAQs Interest rates are charged by financial institutions on loans to borrowers and are paid as interest to savers and depositors. They are influenced by base lending rates, which are set by central banks in response to changes in the economy. Central banks normally have a mandate to ensure price stability, which in most cases means targeting a core inflation rate of around 2%. If inflation falls below target the central bank may cut base lending rates, with a view to stimulating lending and boosting the economy. If inflation rises substantially above 2% it normally results in the central bank raising base lending rates in an attempt to lower inflation.
Higher interest rates generally help strengthen a country’s currency as they make it a more attractive place for global investors to park their money.
Higher interest rates overall weigh on the price of Gold because they increase the opportunity cost of holding Gold instead of investing in an interest-bearing asset or placing cash in the bank. If interest rates are high that usually pushes up the price of the US Dollar (USD), and since Gold is priced in Dollars, this has the effect of lowering the price of Gold.
The Fed funds rate is the overnight rate at which US banks lend to each other. It is the oft-quoted headline rate set by the Federal Reserve at its FOMC meetings. It is set as a range, for example 4.75%-5.00%, though the upper limit (in that case 5.00%) is the quoted figure. Market expectations for future Fed funds rate are tracked by the CME FedWatch tool, which shapes how many financial markets behave in anticipation of future Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions.
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 487.41 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 491.77 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,685.05 per tola from AED 5,735.89 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
487.41
10 Grams
4,874.10
Tola
5,685.05
Troy Ounce
15,160.17
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,145.54 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,221.67 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 95,009.77 per tola from PHP 95,895.99 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,145.54
10 Grams
81,456.93
Tola
95,009.77
Troy Ounce
253,365.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 498.78 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 502.87 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,817.62 per tola from SAR 5,865.37 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
498.78
10 Grams
4,987.73
Tola
5,817.62
Troy Ounce
15,513.63
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
British Pound gains as easing Fed hike bets weigh on US DollarGBP/USD continues its winning streak for the ninth consecutive day, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) faces headwinds as market participants scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated.
Furthermore, a recent drop in crude oil prices, driven by an OPEC+ production boost and a US-Iran peace deal, has alleviated broader inflationary pressures, softening the urgency for an aggressive Fed policy outlook. Read more...
Pound Sterling rallies into its own coronationGBP/USD has quietly put together eight consecutive higher daily closes, a grind from near 1.3150 that has delivered the pair directly onto its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 50-day EMA just beneath it and the 1.3400 handle immediately overhead. Monday added another modest gain: Cable based near 1.3350 through the London morning, then climbed all afternoon to stall just shy of 1.3400.
The interesting part is what did not stop it. A hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) governor was on the wires mid-afternoon, US services data came in warm enough to keep the hike debate alive, and the pair rallied through all of it, which suggests Monday was less about fresh good news for the Pound and more about a Dollar that has run out of new arguments. Read more...
The Mexican Peso remains one of JP Morgan's preferred emerging-market currencies, with the bank arguing that improving domestic growth, attractive carry and resilient trade flows continue to support MXN.
USD/MXN is forecast to ease from current levels, with JP Morgan targeting 17.35 by September 2026, 17.30 by December, 17.30 by March 2027 and 17.30 by June 2027.
JP Morgan analysts say Mexico's economic outlook has improved after a weak start to the year.
"Some green shoots point to a more benign picture for growth in 2H26."
The bank notes that stronger-than-expected April GDP, a rebound in construction activity and robust services growth have prompted it to lift its 2026 GDP forecast from 1.0% to 1.2%.
JP Morgan also expects Banxico to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5% over the coming year as inflation remains comfortably within target.
The bank believes the successful conclusion of the latest USMCA review also removes an important source of uncertainty for investors.
Rather than reopening the agreement, the US, Canada and Mexico agreed to continue negotiations under the existing framework, preserving Mexico's privileged access to US markets.
Carry Trade Still Supports the Peso
JP Morgan argues the Peso's biggest strength remains its attractive yield.
"The structural view for MXN remains constructive, anchored by decent volatility-adjusted carry."
With market volatility easing after the Middle East conflict and Mexico's balance of payments remaining resilient, the bank believes the Peso should continue attracting international capital.
Primary gold mine supply growth has remained subdued over the past several years owing to rising costs of mine development and aging ore deposits. Silver mine production growth has also been limited although a good portion of silver production is a by-product of the output of other base metals such as copper, lead, and zinc.
The amount of recycled gold and silver supplied by the market is sensitive to precious metal prices, although there are other factors that determine recycling volumes (for example, the demand for gold bars, coins and exchange-traded funds, and for industrial users to consume silver.)
Silver has its own fundamental profile as it is used in many industrial fabrication processes (solar cell applications and other electrical uses being the most important examples.) This silver demand component has expanded rapidly in parallel with the transition to renewable energies and the electrification of industrial processes.
So in short the longer term price picture for gold and silver rests on central bank demand, slow new mine supply growth, and industrial demand (particularly for silver.) Other fundamental factors, for instance the level of debt, inflation, and fiscal trends, can impact the prices over time.
Gold Spot Holds $4,127 – Downward Trendline Breakout on 4h
The NZD/USD exchange rate pulled back a bit on Tuesday, reacting to more weak US macro data, and as traders refocused on the upcoming Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate decision. It retreated to 0.5693 from last week’s high of 0.5725.
The New Zealand dollar, commonly known as kiwi, retreated as traders waited for the upcoming RBNZ interest rate decision. Market participants expect that the Anna Breman-led bank will decide to hike interest rates by 0.25%.
The bank will do that to combat elevated inflation. Recent data showed that the headline CPI rose 3.1% in the first quarter, remaining above its target of 2.0%, as energy prices jumped.
Ideally, the rate hike should be bullish for the kiwi as it will make it more attractive to investors. However, it could also be bearish, especially if the bank signals that it will not hike again since crude oil and natural gas prices are falling during the US-Iran ceasefire.
This view likely explains why New Zealand’s bond yields are falling. The ten-year yield dropped to 4.45% from last week’s high of 4.485%. Similarly, the rate-sensitive two-year fell to 3.348%.
The RBNZ decision comes at a time when New Zealand’s economy is doing well. A recent report showed that the economy expanded by 1.5% YoY in the first quarter. It was the third consecutive quarter of gains, with the service industry being the main driving force. Goods-producing industries contracted, with the construction sector contracting by 3.8%.
The NZD/USD pair will react to the upcoming FOMC minutes, which will provide more information on Kevin Warsh’s first meeting. In it, officials left interest rates unchanged between 3.50% and 3.75%, with the dot plot showing that hawks were in ascendance. 9 members hinted that they would support tightening later this year.
Still, it is unclear whether the recent developments will change their outlooks. For example, jobs numbers released last week showed that the economy added 57k jobs last month, lower than the expected 114k. The BLS also revised the previous month’s jobs report lower from 172k to 129k.
Recent PMI numbers also came lower than expected. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the S&P Global services PMI fell to 54 and 51.2, respectively. Last week’s manufacturing PMI figure also came short of expectations.
NZD/USD chart | Source: TradingView
Technicals suggest that the recent NZD/USD pair uptrend may be losing steam as the Average Directional Index (ADX) has dropped from 38.4 on July 1 to 35 today. The pair has also remained below the 50-day moving average, and has formed a bearish flag pattern.
These technicals point to more downside in the near term. If this happens, it will drop to the key support level of 0.5621, its lowest level in June this year. A drop below that price will signal that bears have prevailed and push it lower, potentially to 0.5600. A clear bullish breakout will be confirmed if it moves above the 50-day moving average level.
Key Points:Sticky core inflation and fiscal deficits have reinforced the US Dollar’s strength amid monetary policy divergence.DXY held at $100.93 with green continuation candles retesting Fibonacci 0.618 level.EUR/USD defended $1.1430 blue trendline support with green rejection candles absorbing selling pressure.GBP/USD held $1.3380 resistance zone, testing key levels with mixed candles and neutral momentum.
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Currencies Reflect Divergent Monetary Policies and Economic Fundamentals Dollar, euro and pound rates are still subject to conflicting central bank policies and economic forces as of July 7. On the one hand, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s wait-and-see policy in the face of ongoing core inflation is sustaining dollar rates on the basis of expectations for a relatively tight rate setting in the foreseeable future; on the other hand, there is domestic demand and the status quo for dollars as reserve currency.
A mix of divergent fiscal settings and disparate inflation pressures in various parts of the euro zone and the European Central Bank’s push toward price stability characterize the euro. Policy pass-through in the area remains contingent on a range of national policies, keeping rates sensitive to growth and wage data.
As with other currencies, the Bank of England is considering both services inflation and softness in economic growth, and its policy path is a function of these variables, alongside UK fiscal policy and labor market trends, and relative policy settings for other central banks, which is what largely drives the cross rates with the dollar and euro.
Divergent inflation paths, fiscal settings and growth resilience in the three economies create two-sided risks, with trade and capital flows further driving currency differentiation, as markets seek to discern which central bank will best provide stability and growth.
DXY Holds $100.93 – Fibonacci 0.618 Retest on 1D Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview DXY is sitting at $100.93 on the daily time frame. Following a breakout from the $97.67 low, buyers retested the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement zone around $100.31, creating green and red mixed candles. The asset continues to make higher highs, suggesting the upside remains intact above the $100.31 price level and its ascending white trendline.
With RSI hovering around 58, the DXY maintains a neutral-to-bullish bias. The $100.31 zone now serves as a breakout pivot point, per the volume profile, while the next 103 Fibonacci extension sits near $103.09 within the next couple of weeks. The market continues trading in an ascending channel and the higher highs/lows structure keeps the trend bullish.
Trade Idea: Buy at $100.93 with a target of $103.09 and a stop loss under $100.31.
GBP/USD Holds $1.3380 – White Descending Trendline Test on 4h GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is trading at $1.3380 within the 4h timeframe. After getting rejected off the red moving average around $1.337, buyers tested the descending white trendline around $1.3380 and formed green and red mixed candles. The price creates bullish rejection wicks and continues to keep higher highs within the chart. Currently, RSI sits around 67 and is still neutral on the 4h timeframe.
The $1.331 to $1.338 zones are a pivot area, per the volume profile, with the next zone of support around $1.325 to $1.331. GBP/USD still trades in a bullish trend and is still neutral and above its trendline. Higher highs and lows are still in place, and the trendline continues to hold the price higher within the trading range.
Trade Idea: Buy at $1.3380 with a target of $1.345 and a stop loss under $1.325.
EUR/USD Holds $1.1430 – EMA 50 Defense on 4h EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is trading at $1.1430 within the 4h timeframe. After getting rejected off the red moving average around $1.162, buyers retested the 50 EMA around $1.1419 and formed green and red mixed candles. The price creates bullish wicks and continues to keep higher lows within the chart.
Currently, RSI sits around 52 and is still neutral on the 4h timeframe. The $1.140 to $1.150 zones are a pivot area, per the volume profile, with the next zone of resistance around $1.155 to $1.162. EUR/USD still trades in a bullish trend and remains neutral and above its 50 EMA. Higher highs and lows are still in place, and the 50 EMA continues to hold the price higher in the near-term.
Trade Idea: Buy at $1.1430 with a target of $1.155 and a stop loss under $1.140.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
The EUR/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.1433 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair faces slight selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) edges up, while investors await the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 100.92.
Investors keep an eye on the FOMC Minutes to identify reasons probably responsible for restricting policymakers from delivering forward guidance on monetary policy decisions.
In the June monetary policy press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said that policymakers agreed that the “so-called forward guidance is not well suited to the current policy conjuncture.
Like the Fed, officials from the European Central Bank (ECB) also appear not in favor of delivering remarks regarding the monetary policy outlook.
Over the weekend, ECB Governing Council member Emmanuel Moulin also denied providing cues regarding the central bank’s decision in July, while speaking at the Rencontres Economiques conference in Aix-en-Provence. “We are not doing forward guidance so I won’t say what we will do in July,” Moulin said.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades lower at around 1.1430, keeping a bearish near-term tone as the pair holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1460. The fact that price remains under this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies are still being capped, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 41.9 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1460, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for a stronger rebound. Looking up, the pair could advance to the psychological level of 1.1500 if it breaks above the moving average.
On the downside, the yearly low around 1.1330 will be the key support zone; a break below it would expose the pair to the 29 May 2025 low at 1.1210.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Commerzbank’s Volkmar Baur notes EUR/USD has been stuck between 1.1350 and 1.1450 since mid-June, with few catalysts expected over the summer. He highlights that the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to delay its next rate hike to September and that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is also unlikely to deliver clear signals, which should limit US Dollar (USD) strength and gradually support the Euro (EUR) into next year.
Rangebound pair awaits autumn drivers"Since mid-June, EUR/USD has been fluctuating between 1.1350 and 1.1450, and one is slowly getting the feeling that this could continue for a while longer."
"It therefore seems probable that the ECB will leave the key interest rate unchanged, while at the same time making it clear that another rate hike is possible but not yet certain."
"As for the Fed, the market is currently still pricing in slightly more than one rate hike by year-end. In September, Kevin Warsh will have to say a bit more than just “task force” when asked about the economic situation. We continue to expect that he will not raise interest rates - a development that is likely to weigh on the dollar."
"And the closer we get to next year, the stronger the support for the euro is likely to become. Yesterday’s German industrial orders data showed that a cyclical recovery is slowly taking shape. Structural reforms and expansionary fiscal policy should also help Germany and Europe grow faster next year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Monday as easing UK political uncertainty offset renewed demand for the US Dollar following last week's sharp selloff.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3352, little changed on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335559 (+0.03%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.141696 (-0.17%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 162.33951 (+0.61%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar attracted support on Monday as US markets reopened following the long Independence Day weekend.
The ‘Greenback’ seemed to have entered oversold conditions following its sharp losses in the wake of last week’s non-farm payrolls report, which reported an unexpectedly large slowdown in job creation.
Therefore, some price-conscious investors were willing to buy the dip, lifting the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, the latest ISM services PMI printed in line with expectations, easing from 54.5 in May to 54 in June. Although this was a slight softening of activity, it still represented a healthy expansion in the US services sector.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) held strong on Monday as investors continued to scale back the political risk premium that has weighed on Sterling in recent weeks.
With MP Andy Burnham widely expected to become the next Prime Minister, markets appear increasingly confident that the UK will avoid a lengthy and disruptive Labour leadership contest.
Burnham has moved to reassure investors since launching his leadership bid, pledging to maintain the government’s existing fiscal rules while also outlining ambitious plans to support the economy.
This has been well received by GBP investors, with Sterling finding support as concerns over UK political instability continue to recede.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Employment Data to Support the Dollar? Looking forward, high-impact data is thin on the ground on Tuesday, with the US weekly ADP employment change figure being the only release of note. This mid-tier data could support the US Dollar, if it reports healthy growth in US private employment.
Elsewhere, market risk appetite could influence the pairing. The safe-haven US Dollar would likely benefit if the market mood sours, while the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound could attract support if sentiment brightens. Any shifts in risk appetite could see GBP/USD waver.
Gold is attempting to break its medium-term trend, with the latest US labour market data acting as the main catalyst. The US employment report released on 2 July came in noticeably weaker than expected, with the pace of hiring slowing to its lowest level in several months. This may have dampened expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike, while the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting, due to be released on 8 July, could provide further insight into how long this pause in the central bank’s rhetoric is likely to last. For now, markets are pricing in a more dovish scenario, supporting safe-haven assets such as gold.
Technical Analysis
On the four-hour chart, XAU/USD declined from the $4,221 area in late June to around $3,942, where a recovery began. The decline formed a descending wedge, with its lower boundary attracting strong buying interest. This resulted in a sharp rebound, accompanied by a decisive breakout above both the pattern and the current market profile.
On 2 July, price closed above the upper boundary of the market profile at $4,091 and, if the rally continues, could target the base of the wedge. Should the market reverse, price is likely to retest the profile’s high-volume area, while the Point of Control (POC) at $4,030 and the lower profile boundary at $3,971 could provide support for buyers.
The RSI + MAs indicator currently stands at 62, 65 and 55. All three lines remain above the neutral level and continue to point higher, while the moving averages are still signalling bullish momentum. However, it is worth noting that the RSI has already entered overbought territory, suggesting that expectations for a substantial continuation of the rally should remain cautious.
Key Takeaways The breakout from the descending wedge may have been interpreted by market participants as the beginning of a local trend reversal. However, a move towards the red resistance zone and a test of that area remain highly uncertain, particularly ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes, which could significantly reshape market expectations.
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