SEI perpetual futures have been certified by a CFTC-regulated US exchange. The USD-settled contracts trade 24/7 with no expiry, while three SEI ETFs await SEC progress.
A CFTC-regulated exchange has certified $SEI perpetual futures, @SeiNetwork announced on October 16. The contracts settle in US dollars, trade around the clock and have no expiry date, placing SEI alongside BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP among assets with perpetual futures on CFTC-regulated venues.
What the filing shows The filing was submitted by North American Derivatives Exchange, which operates as OG.com Markets, and the exchange said it intended to list the contract by October 12. According to the exchange's certification document, the contract is settled in US dollars, has no expiration date and tracks the token's spot price through a reference index. The filing also specifies margin requirements and periodic funding adjustments meant to keep futures prices aligned with the underlying market.
Certification is different from a formal approval. Under CFTC rules, a designated contract market can list new products by self-certifying compliance with the Commodity Exchange Act, filing the product terms at least one business day before launch. Trading availability, liquidity and volumes for the SEI contract have not been confirmed, and the listing does not guarantee fresh demand for the token or sustained price gains.
The product adds a regulated route to SEI exposure without holding the token directly. It is designed to let traders take long or short positions without directly holding the token.
US perps market and SEI ETFsUS-regulated perpetuals are a recent development. On May 28, 2026, the CFTC approved the first perpetual futures contract cleared on a US-regulated exchange, a cash-settled Bitcoin perpetual listed by Kalshi. Perpetual futures have no expiration date and have become the dominant form of crypto derivatives trading globally, but were largely unavailable on regulated US exchanges.
On the ETF side, three SEI products from REX-Osprey, Canary Capital and 21Shares are still in the SEC process. REX Shares and Osprey Funds have set October 23 as the target effective date for their proposed fund, after filing a post-effective amendment on Sept. 24. The proposed REX-Osprey $SEI + Staking ETF would hold $SEI and stake part of its holdings through Sei Network's proof-of-stake system. 21Shares filed with the SEC to launch an ETF tracking the price of SEI, following Canary Capital's similar application in April 2025.
Together, a regulated derivatives product and pending exchange-traded funds would give US investors more compliant ways to gain exposure to SEI, though none of the ETFs has yet been confirmed as launched.
Sources
The Crypto Times: SEI joins BTC, ETH, SOL with US-regulated perpetual futuresTron Weekly: SEI perpetual futures gain CFTC certificationCryptonews: REX, Osprey set Oct. 23 target for staked SEI ETF
"TAO has probably the biggest compression in crypto right now," one popular X user stated.
The popular altcoin has surpassed $285 after posting a double-digit daily increase, sparking optimism that its rally could continue in the near term.
Some forecasts are highly bullish and even implausible (at least for now).
Just the Beginning? TAO has performed quite well today (October 16), largely because of the market’s overall resurgence, with Bitcoin (BTC) reclaiming $82,000 and Ethereum (ETH) rebounding to around $2,450.
On top of that, another catalyst tied directly to the asset’s ecosystem could be in play. Bittensor’s team revealed the release of Null Consensus, a major protocol update that expands subnet capacity from 256 to 2,500 participants.
“It introduces a new way to determine miner rewards, giving subnet owners an alternative to Yuma Consensus,” the announcement reads.
The update also introduces optional proof-of-work registration, letting miners join subnets without spending TAO upfront. Instead of paying a fee, they can now solve a computational challenge using their hardware.
“This opens the door for more miners, including autonomous AI agents, to join Bittensor using compute alone,” the team added.
The asset has drawn numerous bullish predictions lately, and the latest price increase prompted further commentary. X user Michael van de Poppe said he’s started to like TAO’s chart even more because he sees “a clear bullish structure.”
Lucky and Sjuul | AltCryptoGems also weighed in. The former recently envisioned a potential increase toward $350-$400 by the end of the year, while the latter claimed the price has been consolidating within a massive range since the summer of 2024 and that could ultimately give way to an “epic expansion,” assuming macro support levels continue to hold.
You may also like: ‘Buy Crypto’ Google Searches Hit Yearly Highs: Is Retail Coming Back? Altcoins Are Rallying, But Analyst Says Alt Season Has Yet to Begin Trump’s $5,000 Checks Could Send Billions Into Bitcoin and Crypto: But There’s a Catch For their part, Crypto Candy maintained that this is the last chance to buy the asset below $300, expecting a 10x explosion in the midterm.
The Crazy Bet X user Rob Greer recently made a much more bullish price prediction than the ones above. He projected that TAO’s market cap could skyrocket above $1 trillion by 2030, suggesting the asset’s valuation “is moving at the speed of BTC, but the innovation is moving at the speed of AI.”
For now, that scenario seems highly unlikely. The token’s market capitalization is currently below $3.3 billion, meaning it would need to gain over $30,000 to reach that level. On the other hand, the crypto market is known for defying expectations, so who knows what the future might bring.
Beating AI Insight News Brief: US AI firm Reflection has uploaded the weights of its first large language model Beam 1.0 to Hugging Face, fulfilling its October 5 announcement. The model uses a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture, has a total of 501 billion parameters, with around 23 billion activated per inference, and supports a 1 million-token context window. Three versions—BF16, FP8, and NVFP4—are released simultaneously under the Apache 2.0 license, allowing commercial use and secondary development. Reflection also open-sourced its accompanying programming agent framework Mirror CLI, which supports tool calling, parallel task execution by multiple agents, and custom model interfaces. The company additionally launched DFlash2, a model accelerator that generates multiple candidate tokens in advance for validation by the main model. The vLLM team optimized Beam’s underlying code using the programming agent: on 8 GB200 GPUs, the per-step computation time for single-request decoding dropped from 8.95 milliseconds to 3.30 milliseconds, reaching 2.71 times the speed of the initial version. The release is backed by over 40 partners including AWS, Google Cloud, and NVIDIA. A recent independent evaluation by Artificial Analysis scored it 30 points, ranking second among open-weight models in the US, trailing only Meta’s Muse Spark Open (39 points). However, it falls behind Chinese models such as DeepSeek V4 Flash (39 points) and Zhipu GLM-5.3 (45 points). Reflection is valued at approximately $25 billion. On October 10, the Financial Times reported that NVIDIA, which has already invested around $800 million, is discussing further capital injection or an acquisition of Reflection.
Google Quantum AI reduced errors 40-fold on its Willow processor using magic state distillation. Researchers achieved 99.99% logical fidelity, but retained only 8% of attempts. Google’s earlier research estimated that future quantum attacks could threaten Bitcoin’s digital signatures. Coinbase urged Bitcoin developers to prepare quantum-resistant security upgrades before future attacks become practical. Starknet opened a governance vote as it explores becoming an independent, quantum-resistant blockchain. Google Quantum AI reported a new test on its Willow processor on Thursday, reducing errors in a key quantum operation by 40 times. The findings also revived Bitcoin security concerns.
Google Quantum Test Reaches 99.99%, State Fidelity The study, published in Science on October 15, tested a process called magic state cultivation. Willow produced special quantum states with 99.99% logical fidelity.
Quantum computers need these states for complex calculations. Earlier estimates suggested their production could consume up to 95% of a machine’s capacity.
Google filtered out faulty states through repeated checks on Willow. Just 8% passed. Researchers successfully transferred the remaining states between two error-correction methods, although larger tests are still needed.
Bitcoin Faces a Longer-Term Quantum Risk In March, Google Quantum AI researchers estimated that a future machine might break Bitcoin’s current signature protection using fewer than 500,000 physical qubits. The calculation assumed future hardware, not a successful attack.
The researchers described a possible nine-minute attack against transactions with exposed public keys. About 6.9 million BTC may face exposure through already visible public keys.
Other networks are also debating protections. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson challenged Vitalik Buterin’s concerns about AI-assisted attacks on lattice cryptography in an October 9 X post, arguing that security choices require evidence.
Coinbase Calls for Early Bitcoin Preparation Coinbase published a security paper on October 13 urging developers to plan before quantum attacks become practical. It called Bitcoin’s eventual transition a multiyear effort.
Its recommendations include examining BIP-360, which changes how certain Bitcoin transactions reveal keys. Coinbase also discussed wallets that could support existing and newer signature methods during a transition.
In its Bitcoin quantum security plan, Coinbase cited limited block space, custody systems and dormant coins as unresolved problems. Owners who have lost access to their wallets may be unable to move funds when upgrades become available.
Other Networks Review Their Security Plans Starknet said on X that it was considering becoming an independent blockchain, with a goal of reaching quantum resistance in 2027. Its account has more than 350,000 followers.
On October 15, Starknet opened a nonbinding vote on whether to study that change. The vote runs through October 22 and does not authorize a network move. Google has separately set a 2029 target for its own cryptography transition.
Starknet now has a velvet rope. The Starknet Foundation introduced the Starknet VIP Program on October 16, 2026, and it targets holders of the network’s native STRK token and strkBTC, its Bitcoin wrapper asset.
According to the program’s page at vip.starknet.io, the program is now open to supported STRK and strkBTC holders.
What VIP status actually gets you The perks lean toward access rather than cash. Qualifying holders are set to receive priority support, direct interaction with the Foundation team, confirmed access to events, and additional benefits the Foundation has yet to disclose.
The program covers two assets with different jobs. STRK serves as Starknet’s governance and staking token, and it is also used to pay fees on the network. In practical terms, STRK is how you vote, how you stake, and how you pay for transactions.
strkBTC is the newer piece. It launched in May 2026 as a wrapped version of Bitcoin built for Starknet’s DeFi applications.
strkBTC was initially secured by a federation of institutions. It also includes optional shielding, which lets users keep certain transactions private.
The Bitcoin push behind the perks The VIP Program did not arrive in a vacuum. It follows a string of Bitcoin-focused moves as Starknet works to build out what the industry calls BTCFi, or decentralized finance built around Bitcoin.
In late 2025, Starknet distributed 100 million STRK as part of its push toward Bitcoin integration.
More recently, the network ran a program covering bridging fees for the first 100 BTC moved onto Starknet.
There is also a weekly strkBTC faucet worth approximately $833.
Starknet recently launched v0.14.4 on mainnet, and the VIP Program arrives in the middle of that ongoing upgrade cycle.
What this means for holders and the network On the market side, research findings note a 47% increase in STRK’s value shortly after the announcement, a move linked to interest in BTCFi and privacy upgrades.
There are open questions worth watching. The Foundation has not yet published eligibility thresholds or how long the program will run.
strkBTC’s security model also bears watching. Because it was initially secured by a federation of institutions, users are trusting that group to manage the underlying Bitcoin.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Ondo Finance’s dominance of the tokenized equities market has narrowed, with its share sliding from 56% to 26% between early January and the week of Oct. 5 as new entrants such as Binance and Robinhood attracted users and capital, according to new research from DWF Labs.
An early mover in institutional real-world asset tokenization, Ondo still led the market with about $1 billion in value during the period, while the sector’s total market value climbed 483% to $3.8 billion.
Binance’s bStocks, which recently hit $1 billion in assets under management, grew to $905 million and captured 24% of the tokenized stock market, the report reveals. Robinhood’s tokenized equities increased from $20 million following their July launch to $170 million.
Meanwhile, Securitize reached $290 million, accounting for 8% of the market, while xStocks grew from $187 million to $954 million and maintained a 25% share.
The report notes that Ethereum’s early lead in tokenized equities has weakened as issuers have expanded into competing networks. Its share declined from 50% at the start of the year to 22% in October, while BNB Chain increased from 9% to 32%.
Binance’s entry also strengthened BNB Chain, where CRCLb, SPCXb and MSTRb rank among the 10 largest tokenized equities. Avalanche, which had no market share at the start of the year, reached 9% after Securitize launched tokenized shares on the network in July.
On-chain activity jump 42-fold in 2026
On-chain activity in tokenized equities has increased sharply in 2026, with weekly transfer volume rising 41.8-fold from $420 million in early January to $17.5 billion in early October, according to the report.
Turnover climbed from 0.64 times to 4.6 times market capitalization, while weekly decentralized exchange (DEX) trading velocity rose from 0.07 times to 0.67 times market capitalization.
Trading peaked at about $7.3 billion in the week of Aug. 31, with Robinhood Chain accounting for approximately $5.4 billion, the report details.
Activity has also spread across more networks. Solana’s share of trading fell from 99.8% in January to 31% in October, while Robinhood Chain, BNB Chain and Base captured 26%, 25% and 18%, respectively.
Tokenized equities are also seeing increased use in decentralized finance (DeFi). Active total value locked (TVL) rose about 20-fold, from $15.5 million on Jan. 1 to $313 million on Oct. 15, compared with 5.8-fold growth in market capitalization between early January and early October. Deployed capital increased from approximately 2% to 8% of market capitalization.
Spot DEX pools held $77.9 million, followed by lending and borrowing markets at $51.3 million, Saturn at $50.9 million, Figure Markets Exchange at $48.9 million and Pendle yield markets at $42.6 million. The top 10 protocols accounted for 89% of total deployed value.
Despite rising trading activity and DeFi adoption, tokenized equities are still small relative to traditional equity markets, which DWF Labs estimates at $75 trillion in the US and $150 trillion globally. The gap leaves enormous potential for further growth as on-chain trading and DeFi use develop.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
After losing $2 support and falling to a low of $1.8, LayerZero [ZRO] made a strong comeback amid a broader market trend reversal.
The altcoin successfully defended the $2 level and climbed to a local high of $2.25 at press time, after gaining 23% on the daily charts.
Is LayerZero’s demand returning?
The market largely recovered, driven by renewed interest in the derivatives. Previously, ZRO, like most altcoins, saw a collapse in derivatives, which intensified downside pressure.
Now, it seems the trend has reversed. As a result, the altcoin’s Open Interest (OI) surged 31% to $275 million, while the derivatives volume rose 63% to $336 million as of writing.
Source: Coinglass
The rising OI alongside volume implied increased market participation and steady capital flow into new positions. Meanwhile, the altcoin’s Long/Short Ratio rose above 1 across all tracked exchanges.
At these levels, the ratio implied that traders were overly bullish and largely opened new and expanded existing long positions.
Two major hurdles remain for ZRO
Despite the recent gains, LayerZero faces both short and long-term risks. For short-term concerns, the altcoin is experiencing heavy profit-taking.
After the trend reversed the past day, inflows into exchanges skyrocketed, with over $26 million entering exchanges. As a result, the Spot Netflow rose above $3.5 million.
Source: Coinglass
An elevated positive Netflow implied that deposits outpaced withdrawals over the said period, a clear sign of aggressive profit realization.
Typically, when profit takers dominate the market, it raises selling pressure, which usually precedes market weakness.
Additionally, community chatters have raised concerns about the upcoming unlocks. On the 20th of October, LayerZero will unlock 25.7 million ZRO, worth approximately $56.5 million at the current price.
Source: Coinglass
Proxonchain reported that previously, these unlocks have resulted in an over-double-digit slip. This raises concerns about the trend’s long-term sustainability, and given prior behavior, the market could drop.
What do momentum indicators suggest?
Structurally, even with the recent price hike, the momentum is yet to confirm an upside. At the time of writing, the MACD sat below its signal line, suggesting that downward pressure remains strong.
Likewise, the Relative Vigor Index (RVGI) confirmed this trend of weakness, remaining in the negative zone and continuing to decline.
Source: Tradingview
These two indicators suggest that bearish pressure is relatively strong and that bullish pressure is insufficient to prompt a trend reversal.
Therefore, if the profit taking persists, we could see LayerZero fail to extend the rally and fall below $2. The upcoming unlocks will make things worse and intensify the downside, with $1.8 as critical support.
For now, if the recent speculative demand holds, ZRO could clear the $2.4 resistance and target $2.5.
Final summary
LayerZero surged 24%, defended $2, and rose to a local high of $2.25 amid renewed demand.
ZRO’s rally attracted increased profit-taking, raising concerns about another pullback alongside upcoming unlocks.
Post-quantum signatures have a weight problem. They typically run 10 to 100 times larger than the classical signatures that blockchains rely on today.
On October 16, 2026, LayerZero Labs unveiled Aerie, a system built to put those signatures on a diet. The research was developed with a16z crypto research, Carnegie Mellon University, and Imperial College London.
What Aerie actually does
Aerie is a signature aggregation system that combines large batches of Falcon signatures, which NIST has standardized as FN-DSA, into a single compact proof. Under the hood, it relies on a lattice-based polynomial commitment scheme called Akita.
The headline benchmarks are notable. Aerie aggregated 32,768 Falcon-512 signatures in 0.65 seconds, and 16,384 Falcon-1024 signatures in 0.63 seconds.
Those runs happened on an Apple M4 Max MacBook Pro using only CPU cores. No GPU acceleration was involved.
Throughput lands at roughly 46,000 Falcon-512 signatures per second. Peak memory use during processing came in at 2.1 GiB.
On size, the aggregated proofs work out to approximately 42 bytes per signature. The team says that is 16 times smaller than its predecessors.
Verification also gets quicker. Checking an Aerie proof is 10 times faster than verifying each signature individually on a single core.
How it stacks up against earlier work
Aerie is not the first attempt at this problem. The research compares it directly against Orthus, an earlier signature aggregation system, on comparable hardware.
It delivers 1.5 times faster proving, 38 times faster verification, and proofs that are 1.7 times smaller.
The research also says Aerie compares favorably to Ethereum’s leanVM approach in terms of network throughput.
Why signature size became the bottleneck
Most blockchains secure accounts and consensus with elliptic curve cryptography. Schemes like Ed25519 and BLS are compact and fast, which is a big reason they became the default.
The catch is that sufficiently capable quantum computers pose a serious risk to elliptic curve and RSA-based systems. That threat has pushed the industry toward NIST-standardized post-quantum alternatives such as ML-DSA and FN-DSA.
BLS signatures also have a party trick that most post-quantum schemes lack: they aggregate efficiently, letting many validators’ approvals collapse into one.
Falcon sits in an interesting spot. Among the NIST candidates, its signatures are relatively small, but it lacked practical aggregation capabilities until now.
What this means for blockchains planning a quantum migration
LayerZero frames Aerie as a migration path to post-quantum security that does not require specialized hardware.
Running on a consumer laptop’s CPU at sub-second speeds suggests that low-latency post-quantum consensus may be achievable without raising the bar for participation. The researchers present the results as a demonstration of that potential rather than a finished, deployed product.
Roughly 42 bytes per signature after aggregation is a far more manageable figure than the raw sizes that have made post-quantum migration look painful.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Estefano Gomez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
The new swaps track Trade.xyz perpetual markets on Hyperliquid, with Ripple Prime taking the other side of each trade and accepting RLUSD as collateral.
Ripple Prime now offers institutions 24/7 swaps tied to perpetual futures on Hyperliquid
Posted October 16, 2026 at 6:26 am ET.
Ripple Prime, Ripple’s institutional prime brokerage, now lets clients hold positions on stocks, indices, commodities and currencies at any hour through swaps tied to perpetual futures on Hyperliquid, Ripple announced on Oct. 15.
Market maker Virtu is one of the institutions already using the product. The swaps track more than 100 markets across stocks, stock indices, ETFs, metals, energy and currencies, and they trade and settle 24/7, weekends included.
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How the Swaps Work Clients do not trade on Hyperliquid themselves. Ripple Prime enters each swap as principal, and the contract’s value follows a perpetual futures market that Trade.xyz lists on the decentralized derivatives exchange. Perpetual futures never expire, so a position stays open for as long as the trader keeps it funded.
Because the swaps sit inside a client’s Ripple Prime account, they can be cross-margined against the other asset classes the firm handles. Clients can also post Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral, though Ripple said availability depends on the jurisdiction. The company pitched the result as one counterparty and one consolidated view of margin and risk.
“RWA swaps are where traditional and digital markets meet,” said Michael Higgins, Ripple Prime’s international CEO, in the announcement. He added that institutions want exposure to equities, commodities and currencies “with the round-the-clock access and efficiencies of digital infrastructure.”
Scotte Moegling, Virtu’s head of business development for digital assets, said in the same release that Ripple Prime’s cross-margining helps the trading firm “expand our presence more efficiently as markets move toward round-the-clock access.”
One License for Now For now, the product is available only through Ripple Prime’s CIV BVI license. More regions are planned, Ripple said, though it didn’t say which.
The launch builds on Ripple Prime’s earlier move onto the venue. In February, it added support for Hyperliquid so clients could margin onchain derivatives alongside their other holdings.
Trade.xyz’s lineup on Hyperliquid already includes an officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual, which debuted in March after S&P Dow Jones Indices granted the license.
Related Listen: The NYSE CEO Calls Hyperliquid ‘Bigger Than the Nasdaq’: Uneasy Money
AI-assisted content: This article was produced with the assistance of AI tools and was reviewed, edited, and fact-checked by a member of the Unchained editorial team before publication.
Trading in Hyperliquid’s Tesla contract rose from $2.8 million to $47 million in a single hour overnight. It is already the contract’s second-busiest day since launch.The contract’s price rose about 5% to roughly $378. Binance’s Tesla contract was still the largest, with $279 million in 24-hour volume against Hyperliquid’s $159 million, according to RootData.The contract tracks Tesla’s stock price but is not a tokenized share. It trades around the clock and allows up to 20x leverage.Traders rushed into Tesla-linked crypto markets overnight after Elon Musk unveiled a flying version of the Roadster, with trading on Hyperliquid jumping while U.S. stock markets were closed.
The surge shows how crypto exchanges that never close are becoming the first place investors react to news about traditional companies.
Musk demonstrated the prototype, which uses SpaceX thruster technology, on Oct. 15, after Tesla TSLA$351.98 shares closed at $362.44. Hyperliquid’s TSLA perpetual contract rose about 4.9% to roughly $378, and hourly trading volume leapt about 1,580%, from $2.8 million to $47 million.
TLSA market on Hyperliquid (Hyperliquid)It is already the contract’s second-busiest day since listing a year ago, with the daily candle only nine hours old. Binance remained the largest venue, with $279 million in 24-hour volume versus Hyperliquid’s $159 million, according to RootData, but Hyperliquid held the most open interest, at $99 million. Tesla shares were up about 4.5% in premarket trading.
Hyperliquid’s contract, listed through Trade.xyz, is a perpetual future that tracks Tesla’s stock price rather than a tokenized share. It settles in USDC, allows up to 20x leverage and requires no brokerage account. The contract trades around the clock, so it was one of the few ways to bet on Tesla’s price while Nasdaq was closed. Tesla is due to report third-quarter earnings on Oct. 21.
Ripple Prime, the institutional brokerage division of Ripple, has introduced a new prime brokerage offering that allows clients to maintain perpetual positions across multiple asset classes—including stocks, commodities, indices, and foreign exchange—at any hour. The feature, announced on October 15, leverages swaps tied to perpetual futures listed on Hyperliquid, a decentralized derivatives exchange.
Expanded asset access through perpetual swapsVirtu, a leading global market-making firm, is among the first institutions to adopt Ripple Prime’s new product. These swaps provide exposure to more than 100 different markets, covering equities, indices, exchange-traded funds, metals, energy products, and forex pairs. Trading and settlement are available continuously, including weekends, enabling institutions to respond instantly to market developments worldwide.
Clients interact with these swaps entirely through their Ripple Prime account; they do not trade directly on Hyperliquid. Ripple Prime acts as principal for each swap contract, mirroring the pricing and performance of perpetual futures markets listed on the Hyperliquid platform by Trade.xyz.
Perpetual futures, which have no expiration, allow clients to keep positions open indefinitely as long as required margin is maintained. This flexibility supports various trading strategies and round-the-clock engagement across traditional and digital markets.
Swaps held in a Ripple Prime account can be cross-margined against other supported assets, which helps institutions optimize capital efficiency and risk management. Clients may post Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin as collateral for these positions, although this feature’s availability depends on local regulations and client jurisdiction. The company emphasized its approach of offering a single counterparty framework with unified margin and risk visibility.
FeatureRipple Prime SwapsTraditional HoursTrading hours24/7, including weekendsLimited to exchange hoursAssets coveredStocks, indices, ETFs, commodities, forexVaries by venueSettlementContinuousClearing cyclesCollateral typeRLUSD stablecoin, othersUsually fiat, securitiesIndustry perspectives and global rolloutMichael Higgins, Ripple Prime’s international CEO, commented on the launch, noting the convergence between traditional and digital markets through the new swaps. He highlighted institutions’ growing demand for access to asset classes like equities, commodities, and currencies, combined with the continuous access and operational efficiencies made possible by digital infrastructures.
Ripple Prime’s international CEO Michael Higgins described RWA swaps as the meeting point of digital and traditional markets, emphasizing that institutional clients increasingly seek full-time access and the benefits of digital infrastructure for a broader set of assets.
Scotte Moegling, Virtu’s head of business development for digital assets, stated that the cross-margin capabilities in Ripple Prime’s platform allow the trading firm to increase its efficiency as financial markets transition toward non-stop trading.
Virtu’s Scotte Moegling underscored the importance of cross-margining, saying it allows the company to support an expanding global presence and adapt quickly as institutional trading becomes more continuous.
Regional rollout and earlier stepsCurrently, access to the new swaps offering is available only under Ripple Prime’s CIV BVI regulatory license. Ripple intends to expand into additional jurisdictions, but did not specify a timeline or regions in the initial announcement.
This development follows Ripple Prime’s February integration with Hyperliquid, which initially enabled clients to collateralize onchain derivatives within the same account as other asset classes. The new product further extends these cross-asset and cross-platform capabilities.
Trade.xyz, the company listing these perpetual markets on Hyperliquid, already offers an officially licensed S&P 500 perpetual contract. This product, which debuted in March, was launched after S&P Dow Jones Indices granted express licensing approval. Hyperliquid, as a decentralized trading platform, enables users to trade derivatives without an intermediary, supporting increased accessibility and transparency.
Mini dictionary: Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange offering continuous, onchain trading of perpetual futures contracts across multiple asset classes, providing non-stop market access outside traditional exchange hours.
Ripple Prime has launched a new service offering 24/7 swaps on real-world assets such as equities, ETFs, metals, energy, and currencies, utilizing perpetual futures on the Hyperliquid platform. This move is aimed at expanding institutional access to blockchain-based derivatives tied to traditional assets, operating outside conventional exchange hours. The service, which allows for cross-margining and uses RLUSD as collateral, is currently under Ripple Prime’s BVI CIV license. Market maker Virtu is among the first to onboard this service, highlighting early institutional interest.
This development comes as Ripple Prime seeks to enhance its institutional prime-brokerage platform, which now supports over 100 reference markets. The introduction of perpetual swaps could potentially drive increased interest in Hyperliquid, a blockchain platform known for its comprehensive offering of financial products. The market’s current pricing suggests that this announcement could have a moderate impact, reflecting potential growth in institutional adoption.
Market participants appear to be factoring in these developments, as evidenced by the odds movement in relevant prediction markets. The market for Hyperliquid reaching $100 by December 31, 2026, is currently priced at 45% YES, up from 43% the previous day, suggesting a slight increase in optimism towards Hyperliquid’s potential value appreciation.
Key Takeaways Ripple Prime’s introduction of 24/7 swaps appears consistent with scenarios of increased institutional interest in blockchain-based financial products. The early adoption by Virtu suggests institutional clients may view this offering as a significant expansion of their capabilities. Market pricing implies a moderate positive impact on Hyperliquid’s perceived value, as reflected in the modest increase in YES odds for reaching $100 by year-end. What to Watch Market participants will likely monitor the uptake of Ripple Prime’s new service among other institutional players and any resulting changes in market dynamics. Key indicators will include announcements of additional early adopters or partnerships that could further validate the service’s appeal. Any significant shifts in Hyperliquid’s volume or price movements could provide additional insights into the market’s response to this development. Additionally, regulatory updates impacting blockchain-based derivatives could influence market sentiment in the coming months.
What Price Will Hyperliquid Hit Before 2027
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31 40.5% -4.5¢ $800 View market → January 1 2027 2.5% +0.1¢ — View market → January 1 2027 1.4% 0.0¢ $138 View market → January 1 2027 2.9% -0.1¢ $1K View market → January 1 2027 1.7% -0.3¢ $1K View market → January 1 2027 5.2% -0.1¢ $2 View market → January 1 2027 3.5% 0.0¢ — View market → January 1 2027 3.2% -0.3¢ $60 View market → January 1 2027 11.5% 0.0¢ $639 View market → January 1 2027 6.5% +0.5¢ — View market → Xrp All Time High
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h December 31, 2026 5.3% 0.0¢ — View market → Updated 7min ago
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
After the U.S. stock market opened, the TSLA contract on Hyperliquid dipped to $364.8, down around 1.3%. It briefly fell below the ~$365.3 level recorded at the start of the Roadster launch, erasing all gains made after the event. A whale address 0x0242…ffa1 holds TSLA short positions worth approximately $10.5 million; the short once had an unrealized loss of ~$310,000, and now has an unrealized profit of ~$66,000, with the position still open. Another whale address 0x7d04…9e7b’s TSLA long positions were partially liquidated: around 2,093 contracts were force-liquidated, worth ~$764,000, resulting in a realized loss of ~$27,800. The address still holds ~6,697 TSLA long positions, using 20x full leverage, valued at ~$2.45 million, currently with an unrealized loss of ~$84,000, and the liquidation price for its remaining positions is ~$361.8.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
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Pump.fun built its name as the place where memecoins are born. Now it wants a piece of the leveraged trading business, too.
A post on X announced that Pump.fun is launching crypto perpetual futures trading powered by Hyperliquid. API data shared around October 9, 2026, shows the platform pulling funding rates and open interest for BTC and ETH perpetuals directly from Hyperliquid’s HyperCore mainnet.
What Pump.fun is actually plugging into
Perpetual futures are a type of derivative contract. They let traders bet on an asset’s price without owning it, and with no expiration date.
The funding rate is a periodic payment between long and short traders that keeps the contract price tethered to the real market price. Open interest measures how many contracts remain open at a given time.
Both figures are being sourced from HyperCore, Hyperliquid’s core trading layer. Rather than building its own derivatives engine from scratch, Pump.fun is borrowing Hyperliquid’s order book and liquidity.
The leverage on offer is substantial. According to the research findings, traders can access up to 40x margin on BTC and 25x on ETH.
A partnership that has been building for months
This is not Pump.fun’s first integration with Hyperliquid’s stack. On August 26, 2026, the platform added support for HyperEVM, Hyperliquid’s smart contract environment, enabling USDC-denominated spot trading with near-zero fees.
Hyperliquid’s perpetual market recorded $12.43 billion in daily trading volume in late August 2026. That is the liquidity pool Pump.fun users will effectively be tapping.
By early October 2026, Pump.fun had surpassed Hyperliquid in 30-day revenue.
Background: from memecoin factory to trading venue
Pump.fun launched in January 2024 as a memecoin launchpad, becoming a central hub in the memecoin sector.
Rival platform FOMO introduced Hyperliquid-based perpetuals trading in June 2026, broadening the range of assets its users could trade. Pump.fun is entering a lane a competitor already occupies.
What this means for traders and the platforms
Hyperliquid is becoming backend infrastructure for consumer-facing crypto apps. FOMO uses it. Pump.fun now uses it for both spot and perpetuals.
The risks deserve equal billing. Leverage of 40x on BTC and 25x on ETH can turn modest price swings into total losses. Liquidation on a leveraged position is a different and less forgiving experience than spot trading.
There is also concentration risk at the infrastructure level. If multiple consumer platforms rely on HyperCore for pricing and execution, any disruption on Hyperliquid could ripple across all of them at once.
Key metrics to track from here include open interest on Pump.fun’s perpetual markets, whether its 30-day revenue lead over Hyperliquid holds, and how FOMO responds to a larger rival entering its lane.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Vivian Nguyen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Morgan Stanley Capital International is moving ahead with a proposal that could remove bitcoin juggernaut Strategy from its global equity benchmarks.
The index maker said Thursday that it “will implement the proposal to define and classify non-operating companies as ineligible for inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes.”
Bitcoin treasury Strategy previously blasted the idea, calling it “misguided” and “flawed.”
“MSCI will implement the proposal to define and classify non-operating companies as ineligible for inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes, as set out in the consultation announced on August 3, 2026, with minor modifications,” the statement read.
“The changes will be implemented as part of the November 2026 Index Review, which will take effect as of the close of November 30, 2026.”
MSCI’s decision won’t immediately remove Strategy from its Global Investable Market Indexes but future tests could end up excluding the company from the index.
If Strategy does get removed from the index, it would mean that fewer institutional investors can or will hold the stock.
Strategy did not immediately comment on the MSCI’s decision. The company said of the proposal in August: “Bitcoin doesn’t need MSCI. Neither does Strategy.”
MSCI in 2025 proposed excluding from its indices all companies whose digital-asset holdings represent 50% or more of total assets.
Strategy — formerly MicroStrategy — is an enterprise software company that pivoted to buying and holding bitcoin in 2020.
It first bought the cryptocurrency to protect shareholders but has since aggressively bought the asset and is now the largest corporate holder of the cryptocurrency, with 848,250 bitcoins worth $69.2 billion at today’s prices.
Investors can buy Strategy’s Nasdaq-listed stock (MSTR) to get heightened exposure to bitcoin’s performance.
Nasdaq-listed Strategy’s shares were trading over 6% lower on Friday.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
German multinational Deutsche Bank is just weeks away from its crypto custody service, according to reports.
The lender — which is Germany’s biggest — also plans to expand the custody platform into Asia next year, according to a Friday Reuters report, which quoted its corporate banking chief.
Top banks worldwide are debuting or planning to debut crypto custody services, with BNY Mellon, State Street, Standard Chartered, U.S. Bank, and Citigroup all committing to direct crypto custody over the past 18 months.
Deutsche Bank first officially announced plans to debut a bitcoin custody service for European corporate and institutional clients in September, with the German multinational at the time saying service was subject to the completion of the applicable regulatory timeline.
Friday’s report added that the service will support custody of major cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin before moving to services that help clients move money into and out of stablecoins.
Gerald Podobnik, co-head of the corporate bank, was quoted by Reuters saying that the financial system will need to “offer tokenized or blockchain solutions.”
A number of top banks have started using the technology that powers bitcoin, the blockchain, for their own products in recent years.
Stablecoins and tokenization in particular have become a hot topic as traditional financial firms aim to accelerate certain services.
Crypto custody is often a starting point for banks moving into the digital asset space. BNY Mellon in 2022 became the first major U.S. bank to offer digital asset custody services.
Banks like Citi and Standard Chartered have this year debuted or announced plans for bitcoin custody around the world.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
Charles Schwab’s crypto research team says the asset still has strong fundamentals for the future, and it expects regulatory progress to help the broader market.
What Schwab’s researchers are saying
Analyst Adam Lynch made the bullish case on October 15, 2026. He pointed to nearly $60 billion in ETF inflows since early 2024 as evidence that demand runs deeper than a passing trend.
“Bitcoin is strong. It’s powerful… still has strong fundamentals for the future,” Lynch said.
Jim Ferraioli, Schwab’s Head of Crypto Research, noted that Bitcoin’s volatility now sits at about 40, down from a previous range of 50 to 60. He also put Bitcoin’s market cap at approximately $1.6 trillion and said the tokenization of real-world assets has reached around $50 billion.
On regulation, the team cited progress in the US, including clarity on Bitcoin and Ether as digital commodities.
Schwab Crypto goes fully live
Schwab completed the full retail rollout of Schwab Crypto around October 16, 2026. Eligible clients can now trade Bitcoin and Ether directly inside their Schwab accounts. Each trade carries a fee of 0.75%. Schwab plans to add more tokens to the platform by the end of the year.
The service runs through Schwab’s Premier Bank, with Paxos providing sub-custody support and handling execution.
CEO Rick Wurster has described crypto trading as a new source of revenue for the firm. Schwab’s clients hold approximately 20% of the assets in spot crypto ETFs, within Schwab’s $13 trillion in managed assets.
What this means for investors and the industry
Schwab’s research suggests modest allocations to crypto within diversified portfolios.
The 0.75% fee will be one point of comparison for cost-conscious traders. Watch, too, whether Schwab follows through on its plan to add more tokens by year-end.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Kaye Quema. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
A year after crypto’s historic crash, leveraged trading has yet to regain its old swagger. But the appetite for outsize bets hasn’t disappeared. Increasingly, the machinery that made crypto notorious for speculation is being turned on stocks, commodities and other traditional assets rather than just digital tokens.
New data from Talos show the shift. Across five major trading venues, total open interest in perpetual futures — a gauge of outstanding speculative positions — has fallen to about $67 billion from $81 billion over the past year. Yet open interest in contracts tied to so-called real-world assets has gone from virtually nothing to $9 billion, claiming 14% of the total across those venues.
The retreat from crypto-native bets has been broad. Bitcoin perpetuals have shed roughly $8 billion in open interest, Ether $5 billion and smaller tokens another $10 billion. Growth in contracts linked to traditional assets has only partly offset those losses, suggesting crypto’s speculative machinery is finding new uses even as traders show less appetite for leveraged bets on digital tokens.
“What’s particularly striking is that while overall perpetual futures open interest remains below last October’s levels, the composition of the market has changed considerably,” said Samar Sen, head of international markets at Talos.
The shift has unfolded in the shadow of last year’s Oct. 10 crash, when crypto suffered one of the biggest deleveraging events in its history where about $19 billion of leveraged bets in the perpetual futures market were wiped out in 24 hours.
The damage went beyond the one-day liquidation event. Leverage remained subdued even as crypto prices staged a recovery rally from August 2026, with investors still contending with higher rates, geopolitical risks and uncertainty around US crypto legislation. Bitcoin slipped roughly 2% to around $81,700 on Thursday.
“What looks like calm is really a stalemate. Rates, CLARITY delays and Middle East risk weigh on price, while ETF demand and risk appetite keep absorbing the pressure. All it takes is one side to tire for price to break out,” Yuan Rong Tan, head of ALM at QCP, wrote in a recent report.
This points to a broader structural shift in derivatives markets, with crypto-native trading infrastructure increasingly being used to gain exposure to traditional financial assets, Sen said. “As the boundaries between traditional and digital asset markets continue to blur, this suggests the next phase of growth may increasingly come from assets beyond crypto itself,” he added.
It also reflects a broader maturation of digital assets. Years of institutional adoption and closer links with Wall Street have made crypto easier for mainstream investors to access, while reducing some of the distinct speculative character that once defined the market.
“You’re probably not going to see the same kind of crazy activity you saw in the past, because the asset class has matured. In a positive sense, it has matured. In a less flattering sense, it has become a little boring,” said Yoshi Yokokawa, CEO of Alpaca.
Kacper Szafran, founder of MNRT, the Malta-based firm behind the M-Squared multi-manager fund, said the shakeout is also forcing investors to become more selective.
“The altcoin market isn’t dead, but a large majority of tokens have no reason to exist and will trend toward zero,” Szafran said. “We’re finally reaching a stage of market maturity in which investors place more value on projects whose token economics are tied to actual usage, revenues and clear value accrual rather than on speculation alone.”
US stock market sees "Black Friday": Nasdaq falls more than 2%, AI-related stocks decline across the board.
According to BIT (bit.com) market data, the U.S. Nasdaq index’s decline widened to 2.36%, the S&P 500 fell 1.19%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.58%. Individual stocks posted losses: SPCX fell 2.24%, ORCL dropped 4.42%, GOOGL declined 2.27%, NVDA fell 0.95%, and TSLA dropped 2.97%. For other AI-related concept stocks: Optical module stocks: COHR fell 6.26%, LITE dropped 3.87%, AAOI declined 7.89%, NOK fell 2.51%, MRVL dropped 4.2%; Storage stocks: SKHY fell 6.13%, MU dropped 4.33%, SNDK declined 5.3%, WDC fell 5.16%, STX dropped 5.97%.
2 hours ago
The Nasdaq’s decline in US stocks widened to 2.2%, with the S&P 500 falling over 1%.
According to market data from BIT (bit.com), the Nasdaq extended its decline to 2.2%, the S&P 500 fell 1.11%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.54%.
According to HTX market data, Bitcoin has dropped below $81,000, with a current price of $80,936. Ethereum has fallen below $2,400, now priced at $2,397.
2 hours ago
US crypto-related stocks fell broadly, with Strategy (MSTR) dropping nearly 10%.
According to BIT (bit.com) market data, U.S. crypto-related stocks fell broadly, with individual declines as follows: Strategy (MSTR) down 9.9%, Strive (ASST) down 7.97%, SharpLink (SBET) down 6.46%, Bitmine (BMNR) down 6.87%, Bullish (BLSH) down 7.09%, Gemini (GEMI) down 4.90%, Circle (CRCL) down 5.65%, and Coinbase (COIN) down 4.5%.
2 hours ago
Trump: Oil prices will fall soon, and he hopes the Russia-Ukraine conflict will end.
US President Donald Trump delivered a recent speech on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Middle East issues, stating: "I know some details of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and I will make them public at some point. I hope it ends. The Biden administration has done a lot of bad things on the Ukraine issue." When asked about inflation, Trump again claimed: "Oil prices will drop soon. Israel has provided very significant assistance to Saudi Arabia, and the Abraham Accords are once again a topic in Saudi Arabia." (Jinshi)
2 hours ago
NEAR Intents announces progress on its vulnerability incident: Attackers exploited a flaw in deposit notifications to generate fake balances, and all funds have been returned.
Cross-chain swap protocol NEAR Intents has released a post-mortem report on its recent vulnerability incident, disclosing that the $3.8 million asset extraction stemmed from a flaw in its deposit notification function. Attackers created smart contracts intentionally causing notification failures, resulting in deposited tokens being refunded while the protocol’s internal ledger still recorded the corresponding balance. Over 23 failed deposit transactions, the attackers accumulated $3.8 million in fake, unbacked balances, then withdrew real tokens between September 29 and October 1, transferring them to other blockchains via Omni infrastructure. Alex Shevchenko, general manager of NEAR Intents, emphasized the vulnerability resided in NEAR Intents’ contracts, not Omni’s infrastructure. The protocol added that the attacker repaid all funds within 36 hours of the bug being identified, and affected users have received full compensation. The team has since enhanced balance monitoring mechanisms and permanently removed the vulnerable function on October 7. Additionally, a security researcher who discovered the critical vulnerability was awarded a $300,000 bounty.
Bitcoin traded near $81,400 on Oct. 16 after rebounding from a weekly low of $79,800, leaving its recovery dependent on holding the 50-day moving average and breaking a pattern of lower highs.
Summary
Bitcoin hovered near its 50-day moving average at $81,279 after slipping below $80,000 this week.
Trader Ardi identified $84,200 as the level needed to break the local bearish structure.
Weekly RSI held above 50, while the daily chart showed weaker short-term momentum.
CoinGlass’s one-week heatmap showed a large overhead liquidation cluster around $84,300–$84,700.
Bitcoin’s daily chart showed a price of $81,345.75, down 1.09% for the session, at 5:38 p.m. UTC. The weekly chart captured a minute later placed BTC at $81,449.99, down 2.77% from the week’s opening price.
The rebound above $80,000 has preserved a nearby support area, but Bitcoin has struggled to build on it. Following September’s advance toward $87,000, successive recovery attempts have stalled below the previous peaks, bringing price back toward its rising 50-day average.
Trader Ardi focused on that deteriorating structure in an Oct. 16 X post, arguing that calls for higher prices were running ahead of the evidence.
“Until we break $84.2K, you simply need to respect that the local swing structure is still bearish.”
Ardi said a break above that pivot would prompt him to consider long positions toward the top of the trading range. His bullish scenario therefore depends on Bitcoin first clearing resistance rather than simply bouncing from support.
Bitcoin’s recovery runs into a familiar $82,000 hurdle
The first obstacle sits closer to the current price. Bitcoin needs to regain $82,000 and sustain the recovery through the latest daily high near $82,941 before Ardi’s $84,200 threshold comes into view.
The $82,000 area has already featured in analysts’ assessments this month. In comments reported on Oct. 1, ViaBTC chief analyst Jeff Ko and Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang identified it as an important support level. Zhang warned that losing the $82,000–$82,500 zone could accelerate a decline toward $80,000, according to the report on Bitcoin’s October support. crypto.news
Bitcoin has since traded through that downside area. Recovering the former support would give the rebound more substance, while another rejection would leave the recent sequence of lower highs intact.
Crypto analyst Jesse Olson also maintained a cautious view in an Oct. 16 post.
“BTC remains bearish on the daily chart.”
Olson said Bitcoin was heading toward the lowest daily candle close of the correction. His assessment focused on the closing-price trend, which remained under pressure despite the recovery from the weekly low.
The 50-day average faces a close test
The daily chart places Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average at $81,279, only about $67 below the displayed price. Bitcoin is therefore testing a trend reference that has risen beneath the market during the recovery from August.
Bitcoin price daily chart — Oct. 16 | Source: TradingView
Holding that average would preserve a nearby base for another attempt at $82,000. A sustained break below it would instead put the week’s $79,800 low back in focus.
The daily Aroon indicator favors caution. Aroon Up stood at 0%, while Aroon Down reached 92.86%, showing that a recent low dominates the indicator’s 14-session window while a fresh high remains absent.
That reading fits the retreat from the September and early October peaks. Price has returned to support without first breaking the downward sequence identified by Ardi.
The longer daily trend has more room beneath it. Bitcoin’s 200-day moving average stood at $72,397, well below the immediate trading area, while the 50-day average remained above it following an earlier bullish crossover.
The current test is consequently concentrated around the faster average and recent price lows. Losing $80,000 would weaken the September recovery before it threatened the more distant 200-day trend reference.
Weekly momentum holds up better than the daily structure
Bitcoin’s weekly chart offers a less bearish picture. The relative strength index stood at 56.39, above both the neutral 50 level and its displayed average of 51.80.
Bitcoin price weekly chart — Oct. 16 | Source: TradingView
Weekly momentum has therefore retained some strength even as the daily price structure has weakened. The RSI has recovered from its midyear lows, although it remains below the stronger readings reached during earlier advances.
The weekly Supertrend also remained green, with its active line near $66,812. Bitcoin traded well above that level, keeping the indicator’s broader bullish signal intact.
The distance to that line means it offers little protection against a further near-term decline. Bitcoin could lose its immediate support while the weekly Supertrend remains positive.
For the recovery case, the more useful confirmation would come from price clearing the recent lower highs while weekly RSI stays above 50. Until then, the stronger weekly readings coexist with a daily correction.
Liquidation clusters build above the market
CoinGlass’s one-week liquidation heatmap showed its brightest overhead concentration around $84,300–$84,700, just above Ardi’s breakout threshold. Smaller clusters appeared near $83,300–$83,700.
Bitcoin liquidation heatmap | Source: CoinGlass
Those estimated liquidation levels give a recovery through $84,200 an additional derivatives-market hurdle. Reaching the larger cluster could expose short positions to forced closures, although the heatmap does not establish that price will move toward it.
Below the market, visible concentrations extended through roughly $80,000 and $79,000–$79,500. A renewed loss of the weekly low would bring that lower area into the downside scenario.
U.S. inflation remains part of the backdrop. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that September consumer prices rose 3.7% annually, up from 3.4% in August. Before the release, BTSE chief operating officer Jeff Mei had warned that hotter inflation could send Bitcoin below $80,000 in comments on the inflation risk to Bitcoin.
Bitcoin’s immediate test remains the $81,279 average and the $79,800 weekly low. Holding that base leaves room for another recovery attempt, but a sustained break above $84,200 would be needed to challenge Ardi’s bearish local outlook.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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Bitcoin risks wiping out the results of many years of growth entirely and returning to fundamental support at the $10,000 level. The largest digital asset, which has served as the main indicator of risk appetite since 2009, is showing signs of a global trend reversal. The key trigger for this scenario would be a large-scale decline in the US stock market.
According to Mike McGlone, Bloomberg Intelligence's leading macro strategist, a 20% drop in the S&P 500 would set off a cascade effect that would return the cryptocurrency to its historical mean. "I see Bitcoin on track toward support around $10,000, notably if the US stock market has a 20% drawdown," the analyst states directly in his latest report.
Technical chart of Bitcoin, S&P 500, copper, and metals tracking a macro rollover, Source: Bloomberg IntelligenceBloomberg Intelligence technical indicators tracking 50-week moving averages show Bitcoin rolling over downward after its peak above $100,000, recorded in 2025. On the chart, the Bitcoin index, adjusted by a factor of 10, has fallen to 7,648, declining faster than other commodity and equity instruments. The current dynamics of the crypto market call into question the stability of adjacent sectors.
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The key question as of October 2026 is whether US stock indices and key industrial metals will follow Bitcoin. At the moment, the composite metals index stands at 8,130, the S&P 500 holds at 7,192, and copper futures have corrected to 6,045.
If Bitcoin, as the proxy asset most sensitive to liquidity, is the first to react to capital outflows, traditional markets may now be on the verge of a similar decline. In this context, McGlone puts an open question in the headline of his research: "Bitcoin Has Rolled Over — Are Stocks, Metals Next?"
The end of the cheap-money era. Where does this pessimism come from?McGlone links Bitcoin's bearish outlook to fundamental changes in the policies of the world's financial regulators. Most of the world's central banks have finally shifted their focus toward monetary restraint, keeping interest rates high. At the same time, government bond yields are rising aggressively, making conservative debt instruments more attractive to institutional capital.
"Most central banks shifting to restraint alongside surging government bond yields may signal an endgame," the strategist states. Amid a liquidity shortage, capital is flowing into tangible defensive assets, vividly confirmed by the triumph of precious metals: in the first quarter, the gold price firmly settled above $5,000 per ounce.
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If the US stock market loses 20%, the forced closing of large players' margin positions would inevitably return Bitcoin to the $10,000 level, which is its main historical liquidity anchor.
Gracy Chen, CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange Bitget, made noteworthy statements regarding the future of the altcoin market. Arguing that the cryptocurrency sector struggles to innovate internally, Chen specifically noted that many Layer-1 and Layer-2 projects have failed to create real-world use cases. The experienced executive also warned that Bitcoin could face significant risks under current market conditions.
In an interview with New Era Finance, Chen assessed the development of the cryptocurrency sector in recent years, stating that despite its increasing integration with traditional finance, the sector has not been able to generate enough innovation within its own ecosystem.
According to Chen, some blockchain projects that have reached market capitalization of billions of dollars have a very limited user and developer base despite their high valuations. The executive added that the number of daily active developers on some networks remains in single or double digits.
Chen stated that the problems in the altcoin ecosystem are not limited to blockchain infrastructures alone, adding that sectors like GameFi, SocialFi, and NFTs, which generated great expectations in the past, have also failed to deliver on their promises.
Chen stated that SocialFi projects haven’t been able to truly compete with platforms like Facebook or TikTok, and that blockchain-based games struggle to compete with traditional games, adding that many projects in the NFT sector are failing to generate lasting value.
Chen stated that the number of projects capable of ensuring long-term sustainability in these sectors is quite limited, and that many initiatives have lost their operations or are gradually weakening.
However, the Bitget CEO is not entirely pessimistic about the future of the cryptocurrency sector. According to Chen, the biggest opportunities for the sector lie in the integration of the traditional financial system with blockchain technology.
Chen argued that areas such as stablecoins, real-world asset tokenization (RWA), and cross-border payments have strong growth potential, noting that these technologies offer solutions to concrete problems.
Chen added that for the cryptocurrency sector to regain strong growth, it needs to develop applications that respond to real user needs.
2022 Warning for Bitcoin: Could Another Crash Occur? In the interview, Chen also evaluated Bitcoin’s current price movements, noting that optimism in the cryptocurrency market changes quite rapidly.
Chen argued that the recent rise in Bitcoin’s price was not supported by an equally strong improvement in fundamental indicators, and stated that he did not define the current market situation as either a classic bull market or a traditional bear market.
Chen described the current period as a “monkey market” due to the constant up and down of prices.
Bitget CEO, particularly warning investors about highly leveraged trading, stated that Bitcoin could experience sharp price movements in the near future.
According to Chen, considering Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, the year 2026 has characteristics similar to the bear market of 2022 rather than the beginning of a new bull market.
Chen stated that if this similarity continues, a new unexpected event similar to the FTX crash could occur, warning that such a development could push the Bitcoin price to even lower levels.
On the other hand, Chen believes that Bitcoin has significant upside potential in the long term. The executive stated that if developments such as growth in the global money supply, institutional adoption, and countries starting to use Bitcoin as a reserve asset occur, Bitcoin has the potential to reach $1 million by 2035.
*This is not investment advice.
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In brief MSCI finalized a rule treating “non-operating companies” as ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes, effective Nov. 30, using a core screen plus a five-ratio exclusion test. The change targets Bitcoin treasury firms like Strategy and Metaplanet whose balance sheets are dominated by crypto, and scraps a temporary 2025 reprieve for companies with 50%+ digital-asset holdings; the affected list comes Nov. 11. Removal would force index-tracking funds to sell the shares; Saylor called the rule “discriminatory MSCI has finalized a rule change that threatens to boot Bitcoin treasury companies like Michael Saylor’s Strategy from its widely tracked equity indexes, a move that could cut off a significant source of passive investment demand for their shares.
In an announcement dated Oct. 15, the index provider said it will treat “non-operating companies” as ineligible for inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes, implementing a proposal it floated in August with minor modifications. The change takes effect at the close of Nov. 30 as part of MSCI’s November index review.
Will Strategy hold over 1M BTC before 2027? Click to make your prediction.The new methodology screens for corporate issuers that lack substantial operating assets and behave more like passive investment vehicles than real businesses. Companies that fail an initial “core screen” are then run through an exclusion test based on five financial ratios; a stock gets flagged as ineligible if it trips four or more of them.
The rule is aimed squarely at firms whose balance sheets are dominated by a single asset, the model pioneered by Saylor’s Strategy, which holds hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin, and adopted by Japan’s Metaplanet and a wave of imitators.
To limit index churn, MSCI built in buffers: current index constituents will only be removed if they fail the screen in each of their two most recent annual filing periods, while new additions are blocked if they fail in either of the last two. MSCI said it would publish the final list of affected companies on Nov. 11.
The decision also ends a temporary reprieve. As the crypto-treasury trend exploded, MSCI last year froze certain index adjustments for companies whose digital-asset holdings made up 50% or more of their total assets; that interim measure now gets scrapped, with all such firms assessed under the new rules.
Removal from major MSCI indexes would force the funds that track them to sell the affected shares, potentially pressuring stock prices and shrinking the premium these companies have long traded at over the value of their crypto. Saylor had urged MSCI to drop what he called a “discriminatory” rule that would delete Strategy from its benchmarks.
The threat has already spurred defensive maneuvers. Metaplanet recently sold 10,000 Bitcoin and bought back 11,000 to demonstrate active treasury management, while Strategy has kept accumulating, adding to its stack even as the index question loomed.
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In brief
MSCI finalized a rule treating “non-operating companies” as ineligible for its Global Investable Market Indexes, effective Nov. 30, using a core screen plus a five-ratio exclusion test.
The change targets Bitcoin treasury firms like Strategy and Metaplanet whose balance sheets are dominated by crypto, and scraps a temporary 2025 reprieve for companies with 50%+ digital-asset holdings; the affected list comes Nov. 11.
Removal would force index-tracking funds to sell the shares; Saylor called the rule “discriminatory
MSCI has finalized a rule change that threatens to boot Bitcoin treasury companies like Michael Saylor’s Strategy from its widely tracked equity indexes, a move that could cut off a significant source of passive investment demand for their shares.
In an announcement dated Oct. 15, the index provider said it will treat “non-operating companies” as ineligible for inclusion in the MSCI Global Investable Market Indexes, implementing a proposal it floated in August with minor modifications. The change takes effect at the close of Nov. 30 as part of MSCI’s November index review.
Will Strategy hold over 1M BTC before 2027? Click to make your prediction.The new methodology screens for corporate issuers that lack substantial operating assets and behave more like passive investment vehicles than real businesses. Companies that fail an initial “core screen” are then run through an exclusion test based on five financial ratios; a stock gets flagged as ineligible if it trips four or more of them.
The rule is aimed squarely at firms whose balance sheets are dominated by a single asset, the model pioneered by Saylor’s Strategy, which holds hundreds of thousands of Bitcoin, and adopted by Japan’s Metaplanet and a wave of imitators.
To limit index churn, MSCI built in buffers: current index constituents will only be removed if they fail the screen in each of their two most recent annual filing periods, while new additions are blocked if they fail in either of the last two. MSCI said it would publish the final list of affected companies on Nov. 11.
The decision also ends a temporary reprieve. As the crypto-treasury trend exploded, MSCI last year froze certain index adjustments for companies whose digital-asset holdings made up 50% or more of their total assets; that interim measure now gets scrapped, with all such firms assessed under the new rules.
Removal from major MSCI indexes would force the funds that track them to sell the affected shares, potentially pressuring stock prices and shrinking the premium these companies have long traded at over the value of their crypto. Saylor had urged MSCI to drop what he called a “discriminatory” rule that would delete Strategy from its benchmarks.
The threat has already spurred defensive maneuvers. Metaplanet recently sold 10,000 Bitcoin and bought back 11,000 to demonstrate active treasury management, while Strategy has kept accumulating, adding to its stack even as the index question loomed.
Daily Debrief NewsletterStart every day with the top news stories right now, plus original features, a podcast, videos and more.
Join 72,000+ readers
Create an account to save your articles.
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Bitcoin’s price has dropped this week as new inflation data has come in hot.
But while the largest cryptocurrency’s near-term setup is difficult, it’s not “fundamentally bearish,” according to European asset manager CoinShares’ Head of Research, James Butterfill.
In a report Friday, the analyst said that bitcoin’s near-term challenge stems from a macro environment that’s caught in an awkward middle ground: inflation is too elevated for the Fed to ease up, while the economy is too resilient to force a policy pivot.
“Bitcoin and the broader digital asset market have moved lower on the resulting hawkish repricing, a reminder of how sensitive Bitcoin remains to monetary policy over short horizons,” he wrote.
Bitcoin’s price recently stood at $81,473, down 2% over a seven-day period.
The price of the leading cryptocurrency dropped Wednesday after data showed that U.S. consumer prices shot up more than expected in September.
Then, on Thursday, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said that U.S. producer prices rose in September at the fastest pace in more than four years.
This has weighed on bitcoin’s price because higher inflation means the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates. Higher borrowing costs can restrict the liquidity the digital coin needs to rally.
The Federal Reserve hiked rates in September and will meet at the end of this month.
But Butterfill added that investors should be patient and advised investors to instead think in the long-term and not react to any single weekly data point.
“For investors, that argues for reading the coming weeks as a data-driven range rather than a trend, and for sizing digital asset exposure against a strategic allocation rather than against this week’s print,” he wrote.
Bitcoin spent the first half of 2026 in a bear market but had its best quarter in years after surging in August and September. Analysts have now said the leading cryptocurrency is now back in a bull market after trading above its 365-day moving average.
Mathew Di Salvo
Mathew is a reporter who's covered the space since 2019, reporting on everything from Salvadoran president Nayib Bukele's Bitcoin bet to crypto exchange FTX's bankruptcy.
Google has made a fresh announcement regarding quantum computing, reigniting fears about the future security of crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.
CEO Sundar Pichai revealed that Google's Quantum AI team has made a breakthrough in what's called "magic state cultivation" on their Willow quantum computer.
The findings, which were published in the scientific journal Science, revealed that they reduced errors by a factor of 40 compared to preparing quantum states without the new method.
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Also, they've achieved a record logical fidelity of 99.99% for specialized quantum states called T-states.
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Google has stated that this breakthrough is a major step towards creating high-power, error-corrected quantum computers that can do things that are impossible with today's computers.
This breakthrough solves one of the major problems in quantum computing, which is the huge amount of resources needed to create reliable quantum states.
What does this mean for crypto?This news reignites concerns about how quantum computing may be a threat to the security of blockchain.
Many major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum use elliptic curve cryptography to secure transactions and verify digital signatures.
If a powerful enough quantum computer were created, theoretically it could break these cryptographic measures.
This new breakthrough from Google doesn't mean current cryptocurrencies are in trouble right now.
The tech giant has not yet demonstrated this method at a scale that would be required for real practical use in large-scale quantum computing.
That said, the developmnent makes it much easier to complete one of the toughest steps in creating a quantum computer capable of breaking cryptocurrency.
They've made one of the toughest steps much easier to accomplish when creating a quantum computer that could break crypto.
A May 2026 test identified Strategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake as potential candidates for removal from MSCI's index.
Michael Saylor-led Strategy could face removal from major global stock indexes after MSCI approved new rules for companies it considers non-operating. The index provider announced this week that it would exclude these companies from its Global Investable Market Indexes.
The new rules will take effect at the close of November 30, 2026, as part of MSCI’s November index review.
Non-Operating Firms Targeted The move comes after MSCI previously considered excluding companies whose digital asset holdings made up at least 50% of their total assets. Strategy had opposed that proposal as well.
In its response to MSCI’s consultation, the BTC treasury company argued that the new rules target digital asset treasury firms under a different name. It also questioned MSCI’s definition of a non-operating company, while adding that the terminology has no basis in US GAAP, IFRS, or any recognized legal framework. Strategy maintained that its Bitcoin business qualifies as an operating segment under US accounting rules, consistent with discussions with SEC staff.
The company also asserted that MSCI’s proposal introduces policy judgments into index construction and could undermine the neutrality investors expect from the provider. Strategy asked MSCI to withdraw the proposal.
The new rules target companies that resemble investment funds and other passive investment vehicles, which are already excluded from its indexes. The process starts with a check for substantial operating assets. Companies that fail face a second test based on five financial ratios. These cover expenses, cash flow, changes in asset values, as well as reliance on outside financing. A company flagged on at least four ratios becomes ineligible.
Exclusion Impact “Overstated”? MSCI will also use safeguards to limit frequent index changes. Existing members must fail the test in two consecutive annual filing periods to face removal. A May 2026 test flagged Strategy, Metaplanet, and Yellow Cake for possible removal.
You may also like: Bitcoin Could Jump 50% If Developers Agree on Quantum Plan: Capriole CEO Coinbase Lays Out Post-Quantum Needs for Bitcoin Custody UK Judge Says Chinese Law Applies to Claims Over £4B Bitcoin Fraud JPMorgan analysts have estimated that index exclusion could trigger outflows of about $2.8 billion from MSTR stock. But market commentator Adrian Morris believes that this claim is “overstated.” While he doesn’t predict zero price impact, Morris added,
“Any forced selling will be into trading flow, around rebalances, etc. This will not be a market dump event. MSTR has the liquidity and turnover to absorb this selling with little issue IMO. This is a near term ripple to deal with, not an existential threat to MSTR.”
The recent sharp sell-off in the cryptocurrency market has heightened investor concerns, while some analysts believe the current correction could be a healthy pullback at the start of a new bull cycle. In an article published by The DeFi Report (TDR), analyst Mike noted striking similarities between Bitcoin’s (BTC) price movements in 2023 and current market conditions, arguing that significant opportunities could arise, particularly in altcoins with strong fundamentals.
The analyst stated that he maintains his view that the cryptocurrency market is in the early stages of a new bull cycle, giving this scenario a 90 percent probability. However, Mike emphasized that investors should not expect an uninterrupted rise in the short term, predicting that Bitcoin could fluctuate between $80,000 and $95,000 in the coming months.
Mike recalled that during the early bull market of 2023, Bitcoin moved sideways for about seven months, experiencing two 17% corrections during that period. He noted that high inflation, banking crises, and the Fed’s tight monetary policies created uncertainty in the market during that time, and stated that similar macroeconomic pressures are still in effect today.
Mike stated that the most important technical indicator for Bitcoin is the 50-week moving average, noting that the price managed to stay above this level in 2023, laying the groundwork for subsequent price increases. According to the analyst, the 50-week moving average, currently around $77,200, remains a critical support level in the current cycle.
Mike predicted that this average could bottom out around $75,000, while Bitcoin’s movement between $78,000 and $92,000 would be similar to the early bull market of 2023. The analyst warned that a sustained decline below $75,000 could seriously weaken the current bullish scenario.
According to an analyst, altcoins could be the winners of this cycle.
One of the most notable points in Mike’s assessment was his expectation that altcoins could outperform Bitcoin in the current market cycle.
Recalling that Bitcoin’s market dominance steadily strengthened in the previous cycle, the analyst argued that a different picture might emerge this time. He stated that the main reason for this is the presence of more cryptocurrency projects that have reached real user demand, generated revenue, and transferred economic value to token holders, compared to previous years.
Mike, specifically highlighting the importance of token buyback mechanisms, stated that in some projects, reinvesting revenue generated back into the token economy creates a stronger value proposition for investors.
The analyst, noting the recent performance of projects like Zcash (ZEC), Hyperliquid (HYPE), Lighter (LIT), and NEAR Protocol (NEAR), said that demand for quality altcoins could create a different market structure than in previous cycles.
However, Mike, who expects Bitcoin’s market dominance to rise again in the short term from around 60 percent, predicted that this movement could trigger a new wave of gains in altcoins.
Could Robinhood’s Ecosystem Be the New Solana?
The analyst suggested that one of the most notable opportunities in the current market could be the ecosystem developing around Robinhood Chain.
Mike stated that the Robinhood ecosystem has seen a sharp correction following intense speculation during the summer months, with some assets losing approximately 70 percent of their value and investor sentiment deteriorating significantly.
However, according to the analyst, this does not mean that the ecosystem’s long-term potential has disappeared.
Mike noted that Robinhood’s large user base, wallet infrastructure, and ability to combine traditional and decentralized finance applications offer significant advantages, and drew attention to the infrastructure created by platforms such as Uniswap, Morpho, and Lighter.
The analyst did not claim that the Robinhood ecosystem would directly become the Solana of this cycle, but reminded that in past cycles, some ecosystems that attracted speculative interest early on turned into big winners in subsequent rallies.
According to Mike, the current price correction presents a noteworthy period for assessing whether the Robinhood ecosystem will play a significant role in future market movements.
Which Altcoins Stand Out After the Sharp Decline?
Mike also reviewed the recent performance of the assets in his portfolio, noting in particular the pullback in the price of Lighter (LIT).
The analyst noted that the LIT price had fallen from around $5.50 to $3.30, adding that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) approaching the oversold region could be a potential positive sign.
Mike also stated that he maintains his bullish outlook for Ethereum (ENA), while noting that Derive (DRV) remains stronger compared to some other altcoins, influenced by a recently published investment report.
The analyst noted that momentum indicators in the Memecoin portfolio were also approaching oversold levels, suggesting that new opportunities could emerge in this area, but cautioned that these assets carry high volatility.
Mike explained that although his positions outside of Bitcoin have fallen by approximately 33 percent from their September peaks, they continue to generate a total return of over 106 percent.
On the other hand, the analyst added that one of the biggest risks to the bullish scenario is inflation. Noting that US annual inflation in September came in at 3.7%, exceeding expectations, Mike said that pressure on interest rates and bond yields could increase volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
Nevertheless, the analyst, maintaining his long-term optimism, argued that the current sell-off could be a rebalancing process in the early bull market rather than the beginning of a new bear market.
*This is not investment advice.
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XRP Ledger developers implemented an emergency security fix after discovering a vulnerability that could have enabled attackers to generate spendable XRP beyond the predetermined supply limit. This decision bypassed the protocol’s standard two-week validator approval process, a move that has stirred debate within the XRP community about the balance between security and decentralization.
Security Patch Addresses 11-Year-Old VulnerabilityOn September 25, the development team released a critical update after identifying an integer overflow flaw in the XRPL payment engine. This vulnerability, which has existed since 2015, could have allowed specially crafted transactions to create surplus XRP tokens unrelated to the amount actually paid by a sender.
Investigators reported no evidence that the vulnerability had been exploited on the public network. However, developers emphasized that the potential risk to the XRP supply warranted immediate action.
Developers explained that the threat could not wait for the traditional validator voting period, noting that “publishing the patch and leaving the flaw exposed would have given attackers enough information to reproduce and exploit it.”
Instead of following the typical governance process, the fix was applied instantly on each server upon upgrading to xrpld 3.4.1. This approach differed from the usual amendment procedure, where at least 80% of trusted validators must support changes over two consecutive weeks.
Mini dictionary: Integer overflow, a software bug that occurs when a calculation produces a number larger than the maximum value a variable can store, causing unpredictable behavior or exploits in computer systems.
Deviation from Normal Governance Raises ConcernsUnder normal XRPL procedures, protocol changes affecting transaction processing go through extensive validator review to ensure the stability and consensus of the network. By skipping this step, the emergency patch introduced a brief period of uneven transaction validation between servers running different software versions.
During this interval, upgraded servers would have rejected malicious transactions, while any servers still running older software could have accepted them, potentially disrupting ledger validation. However, no incidents were detected during this window.
In contrast, a recent Batch security fix from the same development group adhered to the standard amendment process, activating on October 9 through a typical network-wide consensus.
Type of FixDeploymentActivation DateEmergency security patchInstant (server upgrade)September 25Batch fixValidator vote (amendment)October 9Debate Over Developer Authority and DecentralizationThe rapid deployment triggered discussion about the role of developers and validators in urgent network situations. Some have raised concerns about distributing patched software in advance of public disclosure, which could be perceived as granting developers excessive influence over the protocol.
Supporters argued that immediate coordination was necessary to prevent potential exploitation. The XRPL Foundation, a non-profit entity supporting network development and maintenance, rejected suggestions that validator operators were compelled to update, emphasizing the independence of each operator’s decision.
The XRPL Foundation asserted, “Validator operators were not forced to install the patch. Each made decisions independently, and no evidence emerged of forced compliance.”
Meanwhile, planned lending functionality updates for XRPL continue to follow the regular governance process, underscoring that routine improvements still depend on validator consensus.
Developers have insisted that bypassing the traditional amendment process should remain an exception, reserved only for severe security issues, and not evolve into standard practice for protocol changes.
The episode has reassured XRP holders that the immediate risk has been resolved, as the vulnerability was patched and no exploitation has been detected. However, it has also prompted a wider conversation about how the network can remain both secure and decentralized in the face of unforeseen threats.
XRP retail sentiment has turned extremely bullish on Binance, OKX, and Bybit, despite a macroeconomic-driven selloff that rattled the cryptocurrency market this week.
Data from Coinglass shows that retail traders across all three exchanges favor long positions over short positions, indicating that more individual traders expect XRP prices to rise than fall.
XRP Retail Sentiment Stays Extremely Bullish However, this bullish positioning comes as persistent inflation concerns continue to pressure the market.
The long/short ratios show the strength of this sentiment. Binance records a retail long/short ratio of 2.70, slightly below its previous reading.
OKX follows with a ratio of 3.26, which has also declined from a higher level. Bybit leads the three exchanges with a ratio of 3.92, although its reading has also edged lower.
XRP retail sentiment flips extremely bullish on major cryptocurrency exchanges Coinglass classifies all three readings as “extremely bullish,” and this shows that retail traders share a strong upward bias across the competing platforms despite the recent price decline.
US CPI Triggers a Multi-Day Decline The latest selloff followed hotter-than-expected US inflation data. On Oct. 14, the BLS reported that CPI increased by 0.6% month-over-month in September.
The annual inflation rate climbed to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, exceeding economists’ forecast of 3.6%. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also surpassed expectations, rising 0.3% month-over-month against a forecast of 0.2%.
The report triggered an immediate reaction across cryptocurrency markets. According to The Crypto Basic, XRP fell 1.63% in less than 15 minutes, dropping from $1.38 to an intraday low of $1.3574.
Meanwhile, the broader crypto market lost roughly $40 billion in market capitalization within 45 minutes. Selling pressure intensified on October 15 after Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforced inflation concerns.
PPI increased 1.3% month-over-month and 6.3% year-over-year, significantly exceeding analyst forecasts and raising fears that the Federal Reserve might pursue additional rate hikes.
XRP subsequently declined toward $1.30, while total cryptocurrency liquidations reached $1.7 billion over the four-day period. By Oct. 16, buyers had defended the $1.32 support zone, helping XRP recover to approximately $1.34.
Overall Volume and Institutional Data Tell Competing Stories Meanwhile, Coinglass’s 24-hour taker buy/sell volume data shows a narrow advantage for buyers. Long volume reached $1.23 billion, accounting for 51.09% of total taker activity, while short volume totaled $1.18 billion, representing 48.91%.
Although the difference remains relatively small, buyers maintain the lead. This slight advantage aligns with the bullish retail positioning recorded on Binance, OKX, and Bybit, but it does not necessarily confirm that XRP has established a lasting recovery.
Data on whales and sophisticated traders presents an inconsistent trend. On Binance, whale accounts hold a long/short ratio of 3.30, which continues to rise and lands within Coinglass’s extremely bullish category.
Whale positions register a ratio of 1.99, also trending upward and classified as bullish. However, Binance’s smart money sentiment, which generally shows more sophisticated or institutional trading activity, remains extremely bearish.
OKX shows greater caution among large traders. Whale accounts record a ratio of 0.81, which is rising but remains bearish, while whale positions stand at 0.79, also in bearish territory. Smart money sentiment on the exchange is likewise bearish.
Bybit registers an extremely bullish ratio of 3.92 for whale accounts. However, whale positions stand at 0.97, indicating neutral sentiment, while its smart money indicator remains extremely bearish, matching Binance’s reading.
XRP Support Levels Analyst Ali Charts has identified $1.25 as XRP’s next critical support level if buyers fail to defend the current trading range. A break below this level could trigger another sharp decline.
The $1.25 threshold sits roughly 16% below XRP’s pre-shock price range, which makes it an important level to monitor as inflation concerns weigh on market sentiment.
Meanwhile, XRP-linked exchange-traded funds have attracted only $13 million in October inflows so far, representing a 79% decline in the monthly inflow pace compared with September. This slowdown could leave XRP with less institutional buying support if selling pressure returns.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Upbit Korea, the largest crypto exchange in South Korea by trading volume and users, announced its latest delistings. The delistings will take place in November, allowing traders time to act accordingly before the deadline.
Upbit will suspend trading support for Zilliqa (ZIL), including ZIL/KRW and ZIL/BTC pairs. Trading support will be terminated on Monday, November 16, 2026, at 15:00 KST. This follows a recent security incident with the Zilliqa Ledger app in July of this year.
On July 22, 2026, Upbit added Zilliqa (ZIL) to the trading caution list. Afterward, Upbit conducted another detailed review of virtual assets and determined that the reasons for designating Zilliqa as a trading caution item have not been resolved. Upbit therefore decided to end trading support in accordance with its policy on the designation of virtual assets as caution items and the end of trading support.
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Sophon (SOPH) was also announced to be delisted, with trading support to be terminated on Monday, November 16, 2026, at 15:00 KST. The affected trading pairs are SOPH/KRW, SOPH/BTC, and SOPH/USDT.
In related news, Hive Dollar (HBD/BTC) and District0x (DNT/BTC) have been designated as trading caution items on Upbit, and accordingly, deposit services will be temporarily suspended. The tokens have been flagged with an investment warning, with deposit services temporarily halted and delisting possible pending further review.
The trading caution item designation period for MANTRA (MANTRA/KRW, MANTRA/BTC, MANTRA/USDT) has been extended until the second week of November 2026, from November 9 to November 13.
XRP/KRW is the most traded pair on UpbitMeanwhile, XRP continues to dominate trading volumes on Upbit, surpassing major cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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According to CoinMarketCap data, XRP's Korean won pair was the most traded market on Upbit over the past 24 hours, with about $87.12 million in volume, ahead of Bitcoin's $74.69 million and Ethereum's $56.33 million.
Korea has long been one of XRP's most active speculative markets, with the cryptocurrency's dominance in trading volumes coming as little of a surprise. However, XRP remains slightly muted, up just 2.76% in the last 24 hours to $1.33, following this week's choppy price action.
XRP is compressing between its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, with the market paying close attention, as is usually the case when it starts leading volume on Korean exchanges.
David Schwartz, one of the original architects of the XRP Ledger, says the network’s long-term health depends on bringing in more independent players, so that it does not end up serving Ripple alone.
Speaking in an interview marking Evernorth’s Nasdaq debut, Ripple’s CTO Emeritus said new participants such as the XRP treasury company help guard against a risk that even well-meaning builders face. Schwartz is a strategic adviser to Evernorth and sits on its board.
What to know:
Schwartz says more voices are needed in XRP Ledger governance so the network is not seen as “a tool to serve Ripple’s interests only.”He sees no significant technical gaps holding back banks or asset managers.The real obstacles are liquidity, on- and off-ramps, and connecting the ledger to existing financial systems.A governance warning from the ledger’s co-creator
Schwartz said most of the XRP Ledger’s technical problems are solved. The harder question now is whose needs the ledger should serve.
“You can build a blockchain that does one thing, or you can build a blockchain that does something else,” he said. Figuring out which problems to aim it at is the challenge.
That is where a single dominant player can go wrong. “Even if you have the best intent, it’s very easy to convince yourself that what’s good for you is what’s good for everyone,” he said.
Schwartz said Evernorth’s plan to run validators and take part in the ledger’s development adds needed diversity. That matters, he said, for people’s ability to adopt the XRP Ledger “and be confident that it’s not going to become a tool to serve, like, Ripple’s interests only.”
“Going to the moon is a solved problem”
Schwartz used a space analogy to describe where the XRP Ledger stands. Humans reached the moon more than 50 years ago, he noted, so the technology is proven. But actually going there today would still be hard.
“Being fantastic technically is not sufficient to be useful in the real world,” he said.
He pointed to liquidity provision and on- and off-ramps as the areas that will do the most for the ledger, and also the ones that carry the most risk. Regulation was once a major barrier, but he said those “headwinds have turned into tailwinds.”
Lending is live, but DeFi is not yet connected
Native lending is already live on the XRP Ledger, Schwartz said. What is missing is integration with the wider DeFi ecosystem.
Most activity today centres on tokenizing real-world assets, which he called “a necessary piece of plumbing.” The next step is letting people move money in and out of those assets, borrow and manage their holdings. “People need to be able to borrow money. They need to have sensible investments,” he said.
He added that holding XRP on a corporate balance sheet is “very challenging” without a listed vehicle like Evernorth.
Story Ends Here
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Japan's largest megabanks (MUFG, Mizuho, and SMBC), together with Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and TISI Inc., have officially reported the successful completion of the first joint trials of a yen stablecoin.
As part of a closed pilot project supervised by the state Financial Services Agency (FSA), the partners tested cross-border settlements for the trading giant Mitsubishi Corporation. The stablecoins, issued with the status of "trust beneficiary rights," went through the full cycle from issuance to final redemption into fiat without failures.
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The commercial launch of the system is planned before the end of the current fiscal year.
What does XRP have to do with it? (Actually, quite a lot)Officially, Ripple is not mentioned in the consortium's documents. However, in the context of the Japanese market, this test is inevitably viewed through the prism of the XRP Ledger (XRPL) ecosystem, since all of the "big three" megabanks have a deep history of integration with Ripple's technologies. Any banking blockchain initiatives in the country largely rely on the foundation laid by this network over many years.
Implementation architecture of Japan's multi-bank joint yen stablecoin pilot. Source: Mitsubishi UFJ Trust / PR TIMESBack in 2017, MUFG, Mizuho, and SMBC joined a large-scale banking consortium under the auspices of SBI Ripple Asia, created to implement RippleNet technologies for instant domestic and cross-border settlements. This institutional link continues at the present stage.
Not long ago, as part of Japan's financial infrastructure innovation program, Mizuho Bank and SMBC's investment arm concluded direct agreements with Ripple Labs to deploy real-world asset (RWA) tokenization infrastructure and institutional DeFi solutions specifically on the XRP Ledger.
The launch of their own digital yen on the Progmat platform (created by MUFG on the Avalanche blockchain) looks like an attempt by the megabanks to build an isolated alternative to external liquidity bridges such as XRP, in order to fully control compliance and fees within the traditional banking vertical.
The resulting configuration points to a possible division of the market in the future. On the one hand, the closed infrastructure of the megabanks and the Progmat platform will likely try to take over the conservative sector of intra-corporate B2B transfers.
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On the other hand, the parallel launch of Ripple's regulated dollar stablecoin RLUSD by SBI Holdings and the well-developed liquidity of XRP may preserve dominance in cross-border retail and open fintech services.
The mutual integration of banking platforms with the Web3 industry, including their participation in XRP Tokyo summits, does not rule out a scenario in which the commercial launch of the digital yen will not displace XRPL, but may instead lead to the formation of a segmented landscape where corporate fiat and open digital assets coexist at the level of liquidity gateways.
A 2013 promotional brochure from Ripple Labs likened XRP to gold, describing the digital asset as a “counterparty-free” vehicle for transferring value within the Ripple network. The historical document, recently shared by crypto researcher SMQKE, provides insight into how Ripple originally introduced XRP and its intended function during the early stages of the XRP Ledger’s development.
2013 Brochure: XRP as a Counterparty-Free AssetThe brochure, titled “XRP as a Vehicle Currency,” features language highlighting XRP as similar to “gold in your hand.” Ripple Labs—the technology company behind the XRP Ledger—specified that XRP operates without a counterparty, distinguishing it from traditional currencies that require an issuing entity or central authority.
Ripple positioned XRP as a bridge currency between payment gateways within its network. According to the excerpt, this role would allow XRP to connect different currency gateways, facilitating the movement of value between users transacting in various fiat currencies.
The brochure offers a comparison between XRP and the US dollar’s function as a global reserve currency in the foreign exchange market. It suggests that, like the US dollar, XRP could serve as a common medium to settle payments and provide liquidity between otherwise isolated currency systems.
XRP in Ripple is described as “like gold in your hand”—a counterparty-free asset that enables transfers between fiat gateways and supports liquidity across the network.
Visual aids included in the document show how XRP could facilitate transfers from a US dollar gateway to a euro gateway, bypassing the need for direct currency pair conversion.
Researcher SMQKE Weighs in on the Gold AnalogyResearcher SMQKE emphasized the significance of this gold comparison, arguing that its inclusion in an official Ripple publication underlines how the company viewed XRP’s unique qualities from the outset. The researcher highlighted that both gold and XRP share the attribute of being independent from counterparty risk.
While gold traditionally serves as a physical commodity and store of value, XRP plays a practical role in digital payments and liquidity provisioning on the XRP Ledger.
SMQKE also stated that Ripple appeared to stop using the gold analogy in its later materials, though it remains unclear whether similar language ever resurfaced in subsequent company documents.
Mini dictionary: Ripple Labs, founded in 2012, is a San Francisco-based tech company focused on creating financial solutions built around the XRP Ledger, an open-source blockchain that underpins the XRP digital asset.
Both gold and XRP do not represent another party’s debt. Instead, each is valued on its own terms—gold as a physical store of value and XRP as a digital asset supporting cross-currency transfers on a global ledger.
Speculation Over Valuation and Market PriceSMQKE contended that current pricing may not fully reflect XRP’s long-term potential, especially if use cases such as payments and cross-currency transfers continue to expand. The researcher pointed to the possibility that increased adoption could drive higher demand, eventually pushing the asset’s price upward.
However, the language in the 2013 brochure does not provide concrete proof regarding XRP’s potential valuation. Analysts have noted that the future trajectory of XRP will likely depend on broader adoption, regulatory clarity, competitive developments within the sector, and the utility of the XRP Ledger in real-world payment scenarios.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange has identified a significant concentration of leveraged long positions on XRP derivatives markets, raising concerns among traders. Nearly 97% of all new long exposure in XRP recently formed around the $1.40 mark. After falling below this price, the majority of these multi-billion dollar positions are facing losses.
Heavy Long Positions Face Liquidation RiskTraders now face a key decision: whether to increase their margin to support existing positions or accept losses through stop-loss mechanisms. While the exact liquidation levels may differ by position, technical analysis points to an important support level at $1.29, should the token fail to hold $1.31.
Currently, XRP is trading above the $1.35 resistance level. Conditions in the derivatives markets have improved compared to the previous day, but significant liquidations have already occurred. Bulls have absorbed $11.88 million in losses from over-leveraged position liquidations. According to Coinglass data, total liquidations reached $3.33 million on Friday, bringing some traders closer to breaking even.
The open interest (OI) weighted funding rate has turned positive again, which means that traders with short positions are paying funding fees to long position holders.
Key Resistance and Support ZonesDespite the recent rebound, the overall trend remains under pressure. Market participants are closely watching two price levels that could prompt a break from this week’s downtrend. Technical tools, including the red-labeled Bollinger Band at $1.39, serve as the first major obstacle ahead of the next resistance at the $1.49 SuperTrend level, as seen in four-hour chart data from TradingView.
XRP has been consolidating support between $1.39 and $1.55, with the daily time frame showing higher lows since August. However, the current price remains four cents below the lower boundary of this range. The $1.49 level plays a crucial role for bullish traders, closely aligning with the SuperTrend indicator.
If momentum drives XRP back into this demand area, the next significant resistance stands at roughly $1.65 to $1.66. A successful move through this price band could open the path to a target near $2, especially if broader geopolitical factors get absorbed by the market.
Nearly 97% of recent new long XRP exposures are concentrated around $1.40, and after the price dipped below this level, these positions now face significant unrealized losses. Bulls absorbed $11.88 million in liquidations, with technical analysis suggesting traders should watch support at $1.29 if $1.31 fails to hold.
Changing Trading Tools for Volatile MarketsRapid price swings in assets like XRP have spotlighted the importance of real-time market information and streamlined analytics. In a market where a single Fed decision or a sudden altcoin listing can change everything in seconds, switching between multiple platforms for charts, news, and portfolio management can put investors at a disadvantage. Many traders now turn to privacy-focused solutions such as CryptoAppsy, offering consolidated access to real-time charts, smart price alerts, coin-specific news, and essential macro data—all on one interface, without requiring account creation.
Crypto market analyst Ali Martinez has identified a potential short-term decline for XRP, signaling that the digital asset may dip before mounting a significant recovery. Martinez, known for his technical analyses and broad following on social media, highlighted a trading pattern visible on XRP’s 1-hour chart that could set the stage for a notable rebound.
Key technical level at $1.25Martinez pointed to $1.25 as a crucial support zone for XRP. Referring to the recent price action, he indicated that XRP is moving within a parallel channel and currently trades near $1.32. Martinez said that a further drop to $1.25 might occur before substantial buying pressure emerges.
On social media, the analyst described $1.25 as the most important level he is monitoring. He emphasized that the parallel channel’s lower boundary lines up with this support zone, making it a technically significant area for buyers considering entries.
XRP appears to be trading inside a parallel channel on the hourly chart. This structure suggests XRP could still drop toward the lower boundary around $1.25 before seeing a meaningful rebound. That’s the level I’m watching for a potential buying opportunity.
Martinez also clarified that he views the $1.25 level not as a negative development for XRP, but rather as a potential opportunity for traders seeking favorable entry points.
Upside targets: $1.42 and $1.60Should XRP establish support at $1.25 and bounce, Martinez has identified two main price targets for a recovery. The first target is the channel’s midline at $1.42, which has acted as both support and resistance in recent trading sessions. This level is considered a natural checkpoint for any bullish move.
A stronger rebound could lift XRP to $1.60, the upper boundary of the existing parallel channel. According to Martinez, price action near $1.60 has previously marked the upper limit for rallies, and multiple attempts to break above this level have resulted in pullbacks.
LevelTechnical RolePotential Move from $1.25$1.42Mid-channel (checkpoint/resistance)+14%$1.60Upper-channel (major resistance)+28%The risk-reward profile is defined by the difference between the $1.25 support and the $1.60 resistance level, offering a clear range for traders to monitor.
Short-term technical outlookMartinez’s analysis is based on XRP’s 1-hour price chart, which shows the token trading within a parallel channel after peaking near $1.65 in late September. XRP has retreated toward the lower boundary over recent sessions, reaching around $1.29 as buyers and sellers contest control at this level.
Support zones at $1.42 and $1.60 remain technically significant, matching the suggested targets for a potential rebound. This channel structure gives traders distinct entry and exit points, with the $1.25 level providing a base for the setup.
While Martinez has not specified an exact timeframe for the anticipated move, the use of a 1-hour chart points to a short- to medium-term scenario.
Mini dictionary: Parallel channel, a chart pattern in which an asset’s price moves between two parallel trendlines, showing a consistent trading range where fluctuations remain contained within support and resistance levels for a specified period.
Japan’s three leading megabanks—Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Mizuho Financial Group, and Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation (SMBC)—along with Mitsubishi UFJ Trust and TISI Inc., have completed the first joint pilot of a yen stablecoin system.
Pilot project detailsThe closed pilot, conducted under the supervision of the Financial Services Agency (FSA), focused on cross-border settlement trials for Mitsubishi Corporation, a major Japanese trading conglomerate. Throughout the tests, the partners issued and redeemed yen-backed digital tokens recognized as “trust beneficiary rights”—a structure ensuring regulatory compliance and investor protection.
Project officials reported that the pilot covered the entire transaction cycle, from stablecoin issuance to redemption in fiat, without encountering any technical issues. The consortium announced plans to commercially launch the stablecoin system before the current fiscal year’s end.
Japan’s megabanks are recognized for their influence in domestic and international finance, collectively handling a significant portion of the country’s banking assets.
Mini dictionary: Trust beneficiary rights refer to claims or interests held in a trust that allow beneficiaries to receive the benefits generated by assets, such as those backing stablecoins, under Japanese law.
Ripple’s influence on Japanese bankingWhile Ripple is not formally referenced in the consortium’s pilot documents, industry observers note that the initiative draws on a long history of collaboration with Ripple technologies in Japan. MUFG, Mizuho, and SMBC previously participated in the SBI Ripple Asia consortium, which was established to accelerate the adoption of RippleNet for instant domestic and international transfers.
In recent years, Mizuho Bank and SMBC’s investment subsidiary have signed agreements with Ripple Labs aimed at deploying tokenization and decentralized finance (DeFi) infrastructure on the XRP Ledger. These partnerships underscore Japan’s ongoing integration of established blockchain protocols within the traditional banking sector.
The announcement that the new yen stablecoin will be launched on Progmat, a digital asset issuance platform developed by MUFG using the Avalanche blockchain, marks a strategic move by Japanese banks to retain control over compliance and transaction fees by reducing reliance on external liquidity networks like XRP.
Mini dictionary: Progmat is a Japanese platform launched by MUFG, enabling the tokenization and management of digital assets, including stablecoins, on blockchain networks such as Avalanche.
Stablecoin and XRP ecosystem: Divergence or coexistence?The consortium’s strategy could signal a future split in Japan’s financial landscape. Analysts suggest that the closed Progmat ecosystem, controlled by megabanks, will serve conservative business-to-business transfers among corporations seeking regulatory certainty and direct oversight.
By contrast, XRP and Ripple’s regulated dollar stablecoin RLUSD, launched by SBI Holdings, are positioned to maintain their role in cross-border retail transactions and fintech integration, leveraging the established liquidity and open architecture of the XRP Ledger.
Recent industry events, such as Japanese banking platforms’ presence at XRP Tokyo summits and other Web3 collaborations, highlight a trend toward mutual integration rather than direct competition. The commercial rollout of the yen stablecoin may reinforce a dual system in which both bank-controlled fiat tokens and open digital assets like XRP function as parallel gateways for liquidity and settlement.
Official consortium documents omit direct mention of Ripple, yet nearly all major banking blockchain projects in Japan rely on foundational ties built with Ripple’s network and technologies in previous years.
Financial analyst Levi has predicted that XRP could reach $10 or higher in a future bull market, citing Ripple’s recent expansion into traditional finance as a key factor supporting his forecast.
Ripple’s collaboration with DriveWealthLevi referenced Ripple’s partnership with DriveWealth, an international brokerage platform, as a prominent example of blockchain integration within established financial institutions. He emphasized that this collaboration is shaping initiatives such as RLUSD settlements on the XRP Ledger, cross-border transactions, and digital asset custody services.
As part of the partnership, Ripple and DriveWealth are also exploring potential integration with Ripple Prime, offering further connections between blockchain infrastructure and existing finance operations.
Levi considers these developments crucial for increasing the adoption of digital payments technology among traditional financial entities. He argued that engagement with established market leaders could strengthen the use of blockchain for mainstream payment and settlement processes.
Levi highlighted expanding Wall Street participation in blockchain-driven services as one of the core elements that could drive future increased demand for XRP, potentially moving the token closer to his target price.
Cross-border payments outside banking hoursAmong the technical benefits discussed, Levi pointed out the ability to process international payments outside standard banking hours. Plans are underway to initiate these services in Europe, with United States expansion under consideration for the near future.
This model could enable transferring funds between countries during weekends and bank holidays, providing financial institutions with greater flexibility and speed for global transaction processing.
Levi described the partnership’s scale as having the potential to grow into transactions totalling billions of dollars. Yet, he cautioned that rising payment volumes alone may not directly boost demand for XRP, as the extent of token utilization depends on specific settlement mechanisms utilized by these services.
With the unpredictability of digital asset markets, real-time information and immediate access to analysis play a significant role. In a market where a single Fed decision or a sudden altcoin listing can change everything in seconds, jumping between different apps for charts, news, and portfolio tracking is costing investors money. Smart traders are now utilizing privacy-first tools like CryptoAppsy to consolidate everything. Without even the hassle of creating an account, you get real-time charts, smart price alerts, coin-specific news, and critical macro data all on one screen.
Price prediction and institutional adoptionDrawing a direct line from these industry partnerships to XRP’s market potential, Levi reiterated his view that the token could reach $10 or beyond during an upcoming bull cycle. He cited growing institutional adoption and ongoing exploration of blockchain systems by financial companies as primary drivers for his price outlook.
The analyst remains confident in XRP’s future trajectory, relating his expectations to expanding corporate and institutional involvement but recognizes that actual price performance will ultimately depend on broader market dynamics and real-world token usage.
Levi’s forecast reflects optimism about the sustained integration of digital assets into the global financial landscape. However, he emphasized that such projections remain speculative and depend on both adoption momentum and the outcome of evolving partnerships.
Market observers and participants continue to monitor whether these alliances yield measurable advances in XRP adoption and if significant capital flows materialize as predicted.
Ahmed Barakat is a journalist and copywriter based in Georgia with a growing focus on blockchain technology, DeFi, AI, privacy, digital assets, and fintech innovation.
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XRP price traded near $1.34 on October 16, about 4% below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $1.36. The immediate test is whether buyers can reclaim and hold the average; until they do, the historical $3.20 comparison remains a scenario.
The comparison rests on XRP’s 2023 interaction with its long-term trend measure. In March that year, the token moved above a 200-day SMA near $0.40, then returned toward the broader moving-average zone in May, briefly slipped below it, and recovered.
Historical data places the May low near $0.42, while contemporaneous analysis treated $0.40 as the main support area. XRP subsequently reached $0.93 on July 13, a rise of about 134.5% from $0.40.
XRP USD, TradingViewThat sequence is useful as a technical precedent. The strongest leg of the 2023 rally followed the court ruling in the SEC’s case against Ripple, a separate catalyst that helped accelerate price beyond what the moving-average defense alone could explain.
Applying the same 134.5% gain to today’s cited SMA of $1.36 produces $3.20. From $1.31, that would require an advance of roughly 145%; it is a historical-repeat calculation.
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Can XRP Price Reclaim $1.37 First?The distinction between a test and a reclaim matters. At roughly $1.33, XRP is below the 200-day SMA, so buyers would first need to push price above $1.37 and then defend that level on a pullback. A successful retest would offer evidence that the average has shifted from resistance to support.
If price cannot recover the average, the 2023 analogy loses force: a moving average acting as overhead resistance is not the same setup as one that buyers have reclaimed and defended. That leaves the immediate risk skewed toward further weakness before any larger recovery scenario becomes relevant.
Level or scenarioSignificance$1.31Approximate XRP price in the selected analysis$1.3665–$1.37Cited 200-day SMA and immediate reclaim testAbout $3.20Conditional 2023-style proportional calculationTrade XRP on Bybit and Get a Chance to Win Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop
$1.45 Target Is More RealisticThe required XRP price analysis therefore starts with the moving average, not an assumption of a rapid run to higher resistance. Separately, we have discussed $1.45 as a near-term resistance or confirmation level in another XRP outlook.
The two levels describe different steps in a possible recovery: first, XRP would need to reclaim and hold the cited $1.37 SMA; only then would higher resistance zones become relevant. A rejection below the average would keep the downside condition in place, while a defended retest would make the historical comparison more technically applicable.
For now, the near-term signal is the behavior around $1.37. The proportional $3.20 scenario remains conditional on that reclaim and support retest, while the 2025 peak near $3.66 provides a higher historical reference.
XRP analyst Carolina (@Carolinatcwnl), known for her detailed market observations, has identified a repeating chart structure that she believes could drive XRP’s price to new highs in this market cycle.
The AMD pattern and XRP’s recent performanceCarolina focuses on a daily chart pattern she describes as Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution (AMD). In her analysis, this sequence previously guided XRP’s movement between $1 and $1.68. She sees the same setup taking shape now, suggesting another significant price move could be on the horizon.
Earlier this year, XRP traded in an accumulation zone between $1 and $1.30, showing a period of sideways action with few sharp swings. This was followed by a manipulation phase that temporarily pushed the token below $1. Ultimately, the distribution phase arrived, fueling a rapid surge to $1.68 in August.
Carolina explained her perspective to market watchers, emphasizing the cyclical nature of these price moves:
XRP’s recent surge followed a clear Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution pattern. That same structure is emerging again after the latest period of expansion, and the current phase is manipulation—meaning distribution may soon follow.
According to her thesis, the repetition of the AMD cycle is key. The consistent pattern gives her confidence that a similar outcome is possible this time around.
Mini dictionary: AMD pattern (Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution): A sequence many chart analysts use to describe the typical flow of asset prices, where accumulation refers to a prolonged period of slow buying, manipulation indicates sharp and sometimes deceptive market moves, and distribution marks rapid price rises followed by increased selling.
Current chart status and projected targetsFollowing the surge in August, XRP established a new accumulation zone, wobbling between $1.30 and $1.55 before entering a manipulation phase that pulled its price closer to $1.20. Currently, XRP trades at $1.3049, which Carolina suggests marks the late stage of manipulation ahead of the anticipated distribution phase.
In market structure models like AMD, the manipulation phase is viewed as a period when the price moves against broader market expectations, often to trigger stop losses and pressure weak hands. The following distribution phase typically results in a decisive upward move.
AMD Cycle PhaseFirst Cycle (Earlier This Year)Second Cycle (Current)Accumulation$1.00 – $1.30$1.30 – $1.55ManipulationBelow $1.00$1.20 areaDistribution Peak$1.68 (August)Projected above $2.00 (Target: $2.30)Carolina bases her outlook on historical similarities, suggesting that if the second AMD cycle mirrors the first, a move above $2.30 could soon emerge as the next target.
Outlook for XRP in the coming monthsShould the distribution phase unfold as anticipated, XRP is poised for another sharp rally. Carolina’s technical chart suggests a climb beyond the August high, noting that a new expansion phase could take the price past $2 and potentially toward $2.30.
She summarizes her forecast with optimism: “XRP will soar to great heights this cycle.” While this projection is founded on technical analysis, she maintains that the AMD structure’s history lends weight to her prediction.
Carolina is a cryptocurrency analyst and market enthusiast specializing in XRP and digital asset price patterns. She has built a reputation on social media for sharing detailed technical insights on market cycles.
Her XRP outlook is based on the consistent repetition of the Accumulation, Manipulation, Distribution cycle this year, with the current setup suggesting a surge well above $2 if the pattern holds.
XRP’s supply reduction mechanism has attracted renewed attention amid a surge in decentralized finance expansion and increased transactional activity on its blockchain. The network’s move to support more DeFi services, including lending, multi-currency liquidity solutions, and direct cross-border settlements through banking partnerships, could significantly expand XRP’s market presence.
Supply reduction draws analyst focusSome analysts have highlighted the XRP burning mechanism as an underappreciated element in the asset’s long-term outlook. With transaction volumes on the XRP Ledger reaching record levels, more tokens are being permanently removed from the circulating supply every day. Dr. Kamilah Stevenson, an industry researcher, noted that as supply diminishes daily, the network experiences what she described as a “dual force” driving potential price appreciation for XRP.
Technical analysts such as ChartNerd and Egrag Crypto have projected ambitious scenarios in which XRP could reach $10, referencing historical price patterns and trading indicators. Although Dr. Stevenson did not specify price targets, she indicated that the implications of the burn mechanism are significant for anyone tracking the altcoin’s development.
“Here’s what most people miss: every single transaction on the XRP ledger burns XRP. Not sent somewhere. Not stored. Gone. Permanently.”
Dr. Stevenson argued that increasing institutional adoption combined with the supply burn creates what she described as an ideal setting for long-term bullish momentum on XRP, contingent on strong user engagement across the network.
Burn statistics and network metricsAccording to recent data compiled by CryptoTuts, the aggregate amount of XRP burned rose from 14.38 million on September 15 to 14.41 million by October 15, translating to 24,745 XRP eliminated within a 30-day span. On average, this equates to about 825 XRP destroyed daily. Over a seven-day period, the burn tally reached 2,696 XRP.
DateTotal XRP Burned (Millions)Summary (XRP Burned)Sept. 1514.38–Oct. 1514.41+24,745While the daily figures represent a small portion of the nearly 100 billion XRP total supply, proponents claim that sustained high network use could eventually accelerate supply contraction.
If the current pace were to be maintained for an entire year, approximately 301,000 XRP would be removed from circulation—amounting to just 0.0003% of the total supply. Documentation for the XRP Ledger explains that burning happens through transaction fees designed to prevent spam and defend against denial-of-service attacks.
The minimum transaction fee, referred to as “drops,” equals 0.00001 XRP per transaction. With 100,000 transactions at this minimum, one XRP is destroyed. A billion minimum-fee transactions would burn 10,000 XRP. This drop-based fee system may pressure prices higher during periods of elevated network activity.
Ripple, the fintech company behind the XRP Ledger, releases a substantial volume of XRP tokens from escrow into circulation every month as part of its operating protocol. A regular monthly release of 1 billion tokens has the potential to add significant market supply if not matched by increased demand.
In theory, deflationary token models—when balanced by healthy demand—have the potential to raise the asset’s price. The scale of this effect depends on network utility, transaction levels, and broader market sentiment.
Mini dictionary: XRP burning mechanism: On the XRP Ledger, every transaction requires a small fee paid in XRP, known as a “drop.” This fee is not paid to any entity but is permanently destroyed, meaning the total supply of XRP decreases by the amount of transaction fees consumed, providing a deflationary pressure on supply.
Ripple’s monthly escrow releases and ongoing burn rates remain key variables as institutional interest and DeFi activity continue to shape the outlook for the cryptocurrency.
XRP’s maximum supply is set at 100 billion tokens, making it one of the most abundantly minted major cryptocurrencies. However, a recent claim from game designer and crypto commentator Chad Steingraber suggesting almost all XRP could disappear from public markets has reignited debate within its community.
Steingraber’s Scarcity ArgumentSteingraber argued that XRP could experience a dramatic price surge if the available tradable supply shrinks to only 21 million tokens. He believes this reduction would result from XRP being pulled out of public markets, leaving a fraction available for trading and causing upward price pressure.
The reason XRP will be a high price is for one simple reason: it will be removed from public access, with only a small amount tradable, like 21 million XRP available.
This viewpoint quickly captured attention among XRP supporters, as it implies an extreme level of scarcity reminiscent of Bitcoin, which also has a 21 million maximum supply.
Exchange Supply Continues to DiminishPrevious data shared by Steingraber indicated that there were 15.7 billion XRP left across 41 exchanges. This number reportedly declined by 3.4 billion XRP, or about 17.77%, since February 2025. The shrinking availability supported his argument that a supply crunch might be emerging. However, community members noted a key distinction: reported exchange balances comprise both user holdings and assets controlled by the exchanges themselves. As a result, the actual liquid trading supply could be significantly smaller than the exchange total figures suggest.
MetricAmount (Feb 2025)Amount (Now)% ChangeXRP on exchanges19.1 billion15.7 billion-17.77%This ambiguity leaves doubts regarding the true scope of available XRP for active trading, with some believing the liquid float may be even lower than the numbers suggest.
Institutional Accumulation and ETF DemandGrowing institutional interest in XRP is also limiting available supply. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have locked up billions of tokens in ETF custody, preventing those assets from participating in routine trading. The role of ETFs as long-term holdings means this supply is unlikely to return to active circulation soon.
Evernorth, a dedicated investment vehicle established for institutional XRP exposure, recently raised over $1 billion to acquire XRP through public equity channels. The company confirmed holding 473 million XRP—valued at nearly $672 million—alongside $300 million in cash. This kind of accumulation signals a move toward long-term storage of significant XRP amounts by corporate entities and funds.
Mini dictionary: Evernorth is a financial company that specializes in structured products allowing institutions to gain exposure to XRP through regulated public market channels, encouraging greater mainstream adoption of the asset.
Steingraber’s claim that only 21 million XRP will eventually remain tradable met with strong criticism. One respondent emphasized that the XRP Ledger (XRPL) is a permissionless blockchain with a 100 billion token maximum supply, meaning the asset cannot simply be removed from public reach. The commenter acknowledged that while institutional accumulation can restrict liquidity, total XRP supply remains unchanged.
Another community member suggested that major macroeconomic events, such as a potential cyberattack, could influence XRP’s price before any supply-related change. A separate commenter referenced existing institutional contracts, noting that large-scale accumulation has quietly progressed for some time. Others voiced the opinion that experienced XRP investors already anticipate such supply trends.
Institutional accumulation can lower available liquidity, but it doesn’t eliminate public access to XRP. The XRPL remains an open and permissionless platform with a total cap of 100 billion tokens.
