The Pound Sterling (GBP) tumbles versus the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh put inflation as the priority at the Fed, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate hike next month. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3538, down 0.40%. Read More...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds steady to near 1.3600, with bullish bias intact above 100-day SMAThe GBP/USD pair steadies around 1.3590 during the early European session on Friday. Traders pared expectations for an interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) this year and shifted their attention to the annual symposium on monetary policy at Jackson Hole in the US later on Friday. Read More...
British Pound edges higher despite delaying BoE rate hike expectationsGBP/USD inches higher after two days of losses, trading around 1.3600 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the British Pound (GBP) may encounter headwinds as recent declines in Brent crude oil prices ease immediate inflation concerns. This shift has led money markets to push back expectations for the Bank of England's (BoE) next interest rate hike from late 2026 into early 2027. Read More...
Key Points:Warsh reaffirmed his commitment to a 2% inflation target at Jackson Hole, triggering a short-term pullback in precious metals.Gold miners surged roughly 50% after bottoming mid-year, as forecasted, and prices were due for a 1 to 2-week pullback. Ideal support levels provided below.Our long-term outlook for gold remains unchanged: we expect the bull market to continue into 2030–2031. Gold miners are reinforcing our expectation for second-half outperformance and may offer substantial upside from current levels.
In this article:Gold
-3.65%
Gold ForecastSilver
-3.78%
Silver ForecastPlatinum
-0.99%
Gold Big Picture Here’s a quick reminder of where I believe we are in the larger bull trend: the 2026 pullback is only the halfway point of a 10-year rally that should take gold well above $10,000 by the end of the decade. Just like in 2006, I expect the recent lows to hold throughout the remainder of the bull market. In other words, I believe we just saw a major bottom.
US Dollar The dollar has been forming intermediate lows roughly every three to four months, and it appears we may have just formed another one on August 20th. Our work suggests that a major top was established in June, corresponding with the anticipated mid-year lows in precious metals.
The current rebound is expected to roll over in September. Prices would need to take out the 101.80 high to invalidate our outlook for renewed weakness extending into late 2027. We expect this prolonged period of dollar weakness to provide a significant tailwind for precious metals, ultimately fueling new all-time highs.
Gold Gold is experiencing its first meaningful pullback after bottoming mid-year, as forecasted. Look for prices to find support around the 50-day EMA during the opening week of September, with final support near $4,200 should the correction extend deeper.
Silver Silver bottomed mid-year as forecasted, and prices are struggling to regain the $70.00 level, which is not surprising. Look for initial support around the 50-day EMA at $64.65 during this pullback, with final support near $60.00 should the correction deepen.
Platinum Platinum is correcting following its initial surge from the mid-year low. Look for initial support around the 50-day EMA, with final support arriving near $1,700 should the correction deepen.
GDX to Gold Ratio Miners are breaking out relative to gold, supporting our view that they are positioned to outperform. We believe the sector could double relative to gold as it moves toward a more appropriate valuation.
GDX Miners have surged 50% from their July low, supporting our view that they will outperform gold during the second half of this bull market. Progressive closes below the price gap at $100 would confirm a pullback is underway, with ideal support arriving around $90.00.
GDXJ Progressive closes in gold juniors below the $129 price gap would confirm a mid-cycle pullback, with ideal support arriving around $118.
SILJ Silver juniors are forming a large outside reversal day, suggesting a short-term top may be in place. A pullback toward $28.00–$30.00 could offer an opportunity to add to positions, particularly for those who missed the mid-year low.
Bitcoin Bitcoin surged nearly 30% in the back half of August, supporting the potential for an end to the bear market that began last October. Most of the recent gains, however, were driven by a short squeeze, and in my view, it would take a sustained breakout above $85,000 to confirm that a bottom is in place.
Another possibility I’m considering is that this was simply a convincing fakeout designed to turn sentiment bullish before the final collapse into Q4. Historically, the four-year cycle does not bottom until we get closer to year-end. A low in early July would deviate from that pattern, which is why I continue to look for renewed weakness in September and October.
In Closing Metals and miners bottomed mid-year right on schedule, and this is just a brief 1 to 2-week pullback in a growing uptrend.
It will take time for gold to sustainably reclaim $5,000 and silver to move back above $100, but we expect both to make new all-time highs next year, with miners likely leading the way.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
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Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Reclaim Near $4,529 Keeps $4,780 Target Alive The ability to reclaim the 200-day moving average after this pullback, currently near $4,529, would be a key sign of strengthening and could open the way for sustainable bullish momentum and a third leg higher off the bottom. Until then, gold may remain under pressure from sellers as it tests these support levels and works off momentum from Friday’s breakdown.
A measured move from the recent breakout of a bullish pennant pattern points to $4,780. That target is reinforced by the 50% retracement of the full decline from the January peak and a prior lower swing high from the previous downswing. The confluence of those levels increases its potential as an upside objective.
Because this is the first pullback following a significant breakout above both the downtrend line and the 200-day moving average, an eventual recovery is still anticipated. That outlook begins to change though, if support fails to hold near the 20-day moving average. Should that average give way, Friday’s loss of the 200-day moving average would look like more than a brief interruption in the larger advance.
US Dollar Talking Points:
The US Dollar broke out after the hawkish lean from Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.
This produced a pullback in EUR/USD and for those looking to fade the USD-strength, that setup could be of interest.
USD/JPY is heading into the weekly close above the 160.00 handle and this begs the question as to whether we’ll see a response from either the BoJ and/or the US Treasury Department next week.
Of late, the US Dollar has been heavily driven by dynamics in USD/JPY and the Friday breakout illustrates that well, with both DXY and USD/JPY pushing up to fresh August highs on the back of Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole.
US Dollar Four-Hour Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
USD/JPY
While 160.00 wasn’t a specific line in the sand set by policymakers, it was thought to be an important level that could possibly produce a response. Given the backdrop on Friday, with Kevin Warsh’s hawkish take at Jackson Hole driving a move of USD-strength, bulls finally mustered the motivation to test above the big figure despite posturing just below it for the prior two-and-a-half weeks.
As I had said in the Tuesday webinar, the pair was exhibiting continued higher-lows and that showed how buyers were continuing to respond to dips or pullbacks, and until there was a break in the fundamental backdrop, or a larger response from policymakers, that pace was likely to continue.
Friday marks a big test in that sequence as it’s the first push above the 160.00 level since the dual intervention. And like we’ve seen in prior episodes, now that bulls have broken through the seal the big question is for how long might they go until there is a response. The levels that I’ve been tracking are 160.64 and then 161.95, and above that is the same 164.00 that stalled the move ahead of the July FOMC and BoJ rate decisions and that’s what actually elicited a response.
USD/JPY Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
EUR/USD
The move in EUR/USD has so far remained clean, with the 1.1576 support level holding the lows into the end of the week. This was resistance earlier in August before a breakout pushed a test of the 1.1700 handle, and for traders looking for USD-weakness that does not involve the hope of policy intervention, this could make for a compelling setup provided that support can hold through next week’s open.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview
--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
The relative calm in the energy and bond markets have allowed the US dollar and equities to make a slightly positive start to the week. America's economic war on Iran also failed to trigger any panic, leaving investors with little to chew over until the release of US inflation data on Wednesday and Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.4% to near $4,630 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal corrects after failing to extend the rally above $4,700 earlier in the day.
The yellow metal struggles to attract bids even as a sharp decline in oil prices has weighed heavily on United States (US) Treasury Yields.
At press time, WTI Oil prices are down 3% to near $82.00. Lower prices diminish fears of high inflation expectations, a scenario that eases interest rate hike risks from global central banks and weighs on US Treasury Yields.
As of writing, 10-year yields on US bonds are down 0.6% to near 4.67%. 30-year US Treasury Yields trade 0.55% lower to near 5.2%.
The scenario of lower yields on US interest-bearing assets improves the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data for July and the outcome of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
Gold Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,637.77, keeping a bullish near-term tone as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $4,387.61 and above key Fibonacci retracement supports. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 70.8, placing the metal in overbought territory and hinting that upside momentum remains strong but increasingly vulnerable to consolidation or a corrective pause.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50% Fibonacci retracement at about $4,779.97, followed by the 61.8% retracement near $4,972.47, with higher barriers seen at $5,246.55 and $5,595.68. On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 38.2% retracement around $4,587.46, ahead of the 23.6% level at $4,349.27 and the 20-day EMA near $4,387.61, where a deeper pullback could look to stabilize while the broader bullish structure remains intact above these levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
In our last video, we looked at how a desperate move by the US Treasury to buy more long-dated US bonds hurt USD.
Let’s take a look at the aftermath.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on NVIDIA, Gold, XAU/USD, USD/CAD, CAD/CHF, AUD/NZD, and AUD/USD.
We have been following several USD pairs and buying the dip on pairs like AUDUSD when price reaches the lower trend line.
This trend line might be changing now, as global economies are losing confidence in USD.
For example, we often use the stochastic oscillator to signal reversals, with the trend, and we can use ADX to confirm.
When we see the red DI- line quickly turn down, it usually means that the short-term retracement has exhausted itself.
You may have seen our videos on using these indicators to spot price reversals after news events in our News Catalyst Fade, and we may get a chance tomorrow with Australian CPI.
In general, if yearly CPI comes in lower than 3.3%, this may signal to the RBA that they may not have to raise interest rates this year, which will drive AUD lower, against the trend.
Also, we have US PCE and GDP tomorrow so we will probably see good volatility on AUDUSD, but please check other USD and AUD pairs.
For example, we are in a ranging market looking at the AUD/NZD 4-hour chart, and our technicals helped us pick the reversals.
However, the daily chart tells a bit of a different story with AUD looking weaker, contrary to other pairs.
You will note, as well, that all CHF pairs moved last week on news that the SNB will not rule out negative interest rates.
This caused rapid CHF weakness, and the announcement of the US Treasury Bond fiasco caused a reversal, which our indicators spotted nicely.
You will also note a weekend gap on CAD pairs based on the surprise, very unreasonable demands by US trade negotiators over the weekend.
USDCAD saw the same effect and, normally, we would expect a continuation of the downtrend and a gap trade.
However, this is now a fundamental trade, not a technical trade, and the market will be waiting on better news from US/Canada trade talks before we see a stronger Loony.
We see a pullback on Gold.
This is likely just profit-taking, but keep an eye on tomorrow’s US PCE and GDP figures, as many analysts feel that gold is still bullish.
And, if you like to trade US equities, we have NVIDIA earnings tomorrow as well, whose share price has been falling for more than one week.
The USD/INR will trade as an interplay between the US Treasury's bond buyback program and the geopolitical scenarios. Current Setup and Live Chart With the US Dollar entering the week with negative sentiment, USD/INR’s upside may be capped or limited. This is because the rupee has significant exposure to the current geopolitical environment in the Middle East. This factor poses a substantial upside risk for the rupee.
USD/INR is mildly bearish at the moment. But significant oil-related upside risk means the pair’s direction could be driven more by the rupee’s response to oil prices than by the USD’s response to the local fiscal environment.
Last week brought news of the US Treasury’s intention to double its bond buyback program. Under this arrangement, the US Treasury will double the maximum limit of its 10–30-year liquidity-support buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, with commencement set for 9 September 2026. The announcement caused a drop in US long-term yields and weakened the dollar’s yield advantage. But any geopolitical escalation puts the rupee on the back foot, meaning the pair could resume the upside even if the greenback is broadly weak.
USD/INR Forecasts: Key Scenarios This Week The scenarios that will determine the USD/INR forecasts are straightforward:
US Dollar ↓ + oil stable → USD/INR ↓ (mildly bearish) Dollar ↓ + oil ↑ sharply → USD/INR could still rise. Dollar ↑ + oil ↑ → strongly bullish for USD/INR. There are asymmetric risks to the USD/INR pair. In other words, any fresh escalation of the US-Iran conflict, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz, will quickly override any weakness from the US Treasury buyback intervention.
Macro Drivers for the USD/INR right now 1) The Treasury Buyback Program
The US Treasury’s long-end buybacks are set to increase to at least $4 billion per operation and will cover 10–30-year securities. This has reduced the USD’s yield advantage.
Although this move aims to improve liquidity and reduce pressure on the long end of the U.S. Treasury curve, it could reduce the appeal of USD-denominated assets. This impact is already being felt across several emerging market FX pairs.
2) Oil prices
Elevated oil prices remain the rupee’s biggest threat. India is the world’s third-largest economy, and elevated oil prices hurt the rupee. India’s structural dependence on imported crude means higher prices risk importing inflation into India and keeping import bills high. The accompanying deterioration in the trade balance puts pressure on the local currency. Indeed, persistently high oil prices could weaken the rupee enough to offset any losses the USD suffers from Treasury intervention.
3) Geopolitical risk
The conflict around Iran and the Strait of Hormuz creates three channels of pressure. The first is from higher crude prices, which raise import costs. The second is from higher freight and insurance costs incurred from using longer alternative oil shipping routes. The third is the exit of portfolio funds from emerging markets due to risk aversion. India’s current growth provides some buffer, but it does not reduce the risk premium that hits the rupee amid geopolitical escalation. risk
4) The RBI as a Manager of Rupee Volatility
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) typically steps in to manage excessive rupee volatility. One way it does this is by deploying some of its external reserves to defend the rupee and prevent a disorderly, outsized depreciation.
USD/INR Price Catalysts 1) Brent crude direction: For the rupee, this is the most important variable right now. Lower Brent crude prices reduce India’s import bill and favor a USD/INR downside. A sharp rise in Brent crude raises import costs and supports the pair. As prices approach $100, this factor becomes more important.
2) US Treasury Yields: The bond buyback program is basically an intervention that determines the yields on long-term US borrowing costs. They were introduced to stabilize the bond market at the long end. If US Treasury yields decline as a result, the US Dollar also declines, and this supports the rupee. Ultimately, this is meant to cap the upside in the USD/INR. The reverse is also the case. If the program fails to curtail the rise in bond yields, we would see the USD regaining lost ground. Rising oil prices are bullish for the USD/INR.
3) Foreign portfolio flows: A decline in US bond yields and a weaker dollar improve the appeal of emerging-market FX such as the rupee. It would favor an influx of foreign portfolio funds into the Indian market. These funds need to convert into the local currency to participate in the Indian market; this is bullish for the rupee. Conversely, a global risk-off episode (such as a geopolitical escalation) could send these portfolio funds fleeing to safety and out of the Indian markets. This is a rupee-negative scenario.
USD/INR Technical Outlook The ascending trendline support is under threat, as the daily candle has violated it. We need to see the 95.24 support level (30 March high) break down for a push lower toward the 94.04 support and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 8 April – 20 May upswing. Below this level, additional support is seen at 93.25.
Fig 1: USD/INR daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot: 25 August 2026) Conversely, recovery above the trendline maintains its integrity. The bulls would need to force a bounce from there to aim for the 96.99 resistance as the next upside target. However, there is a potential for a pitstop at the most recent high seen on 24 July at 96.67. Only if this point is surpassed can we see a reclaim of 96.99.
GBP/USD is holding at 1.3627 on Tuesday. In the final full week of August, the pair remains near its highest level since mid-February. Sterling is being supported by dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s unexpected decision to at least double its purchases of long-term government bonds.
Investors are also awaiting details of new sanctions against Iran. The highlight of the week will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, which could shape expectations for the future trajectory of US interest rates.
In the UK, money markets continue to price in one Bank of England rate hike before year-end and a further 25-basis-point move by early 2027. July inflation accelerated to 2.9% – the highest since March – while core inflation came in above expectations at 2.6%.
Further support for the pound is coming from strong domestic data: PMIs point to a pick-up in business activity, while consumer confidence climbed to a two-year high in August. At the same time, high inflation remains the key risk, potentially fuelled by a protracted conflict with Iran and elevated energy prices.
Technical analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market has nearly reached the local upside target at 1.3672 and is forming a narrow consolidation range below this level, currently extending between 1.3619 and 1.3650. A new compact consolidation range is expected to form below 1.3672. A downside breakout would open the way for a move lower towards 1.3550. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3640 level, currently extending between 1.3618 and 1.3650. A move lower towards 1.3600 is expected, and a break below this level would open the way for a further decline to 1.3550. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGBP/USD remains near multi-month highs, supported by dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement and strong UK economic data. Markets are now focused on upcoming catalysts, including details of new sanctions against Iran and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shape expectations for US interest rates. In the UK, money markets continue to price in further BoE tightening, supported by accelerating inflation and improving business activity and consumer confidence data. However, high inflation and geopolitical risks remain key concerns. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 1.3600, with a break below this level opening the way towards 1.3550. The near-term direction will depend on central bank signals and geopolitical developments.
Silver (XAG/USD) continues its struggle to make it through the $70.00 psychological mark and turns lower for the second straight day on Tuesday. The white metal slides to the mid-$67.00s during the first half of the European session, though the technical setup warrants caution before positioning for an extension of the retracement slide from a two-month high, touched last Friday.
The XAG/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias following last week's breakout above the $66.55-$66.60 horizontal resistance. Moreover, the white metal holds well above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, suggesting that the broader uptrend is still intact. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is easing back toward the neutral 50 area and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slipping into negative territory, hinting at waning upside pressure rather than a completed reversal.
On the downside, immediate support aligns with the $67.00 mark ahead of the $66.60-$66.55 resistance breakpoint, where buyers have recently attempted to stabilize the pullback. A deeper slide would expose the 200-period SMA at $61.30 as the next relevant technical floor, where the broader bullish structure would likely be reassessed if broken decisively.
On the top side, bulls might await sustained strength and acceptance above the $70.00 mark before positioning for any further gains towards the $71.00 round figure and the $71.55 hurdle. A sustained move beyond should pave the way for additional gains beyond the $72.00 mark, towards the $72.55 intermediate resistance en route to $73.00 and the $73.40 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $67.82 per troy ounce, down 0.97% from the $68.48 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 4.59% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.23 on Tuesday, up from 67.93 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/USD is holding at 1.3627 on Tuesday. In the final full week of August, the pair remains near its highest level since mid-February. Sterling is being supported by dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s unexpected decision to at least double its purchases of long-term government bonds.
Investors are also awaiting details of new sanctions against Iran. The highlight of the week will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday, which could shape expectations for the future trajectory of US interest rates.
In the UK, money markets continue to price in one Bank of England rate hike before year-end and a further 25-basis-point move by early 2027. July inflation accelerated to 2.9% – the highest since March – while core inflation came in above expectations at 2.6%.
Further support for the pound is coming from strong domestic data: PMIs point to a pick-up in business activity, while consumer confidence climbed to a two-year high in August. At the same time, high inflation remains the key risk, potentially fuelled by a protracted conflict with Iran and elevated energy prices.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market has nearly reached the local upside target at 1.3672 and is forming a narrow consolidation range below this level, currently extending between 1.3619 and 1.3650. A new compact consolidation range is expected to form below 1.3672. A downside breakout would open the way for a move lower towards 1.3550. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3640 level, currently extending between 1.3618 and 1.3650. A move lower towards 1.3600 is expected, and a break below this level would open the way for a further decline to 1.3550. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion GBP/USD remains near multi-month highs, supported by dollar weakness following the US Treasury’s bond buyback announcement and strong UK economic data. Markets are now focused on upcoming catalysts, including details of new sanctions against Iran and Fed Chair Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday, which could shape expectations for US interest rates. In the UK, money markets continue to price in further BoE tightening, supported by accelerating inflation and improving business activity and consumer confidence data. However, high inflation and geopolitical risks remain key concerns. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 1.3600, with a break below this level opening the way towards 1.3550. The near-term direction will depend on central bank signals and geopolitical developments.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann describe GBP/USD price action as range-bound intraday between 1.3615 and 1.3660, with momentum indicators neutral. However, their 1–3 week view remains positive after turning bullish last week, looking for a move toward 1.3700 while keeping strong support at 1.3585. A break below that level would negate the upside scenario.
Range-bound now but bullish bias"24-HOUR VIEW: After GBP closed little changed at 1.3644 (+0.09%) last Friday, we highlighted yesterday that “the price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase.” We expected GBP “to trade between 1.3620 and 1.3665.” Our view was not wrong, as GBP traded between 1.3621 and 1.3656 before closing at 1.3630 (-0.10%). There has been no shift in either downward or upward momentum, and GBP is likely to continue to trade in a range, probably between 1.3615 and 1.3660."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.3540). On Friday (21 Aug, spot at 1.3640), we indicated that GBP “could continue to rise to 1.3700.” There is no change in our view. On the downside, if GBP breaks below 1.3585 (no change in ‘strong support level), it will mean that 1.3700 is out of reach."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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Gold – Chart Despite pulling back to the upper boundary of a rising channel $4,633, gold is holding above the 50-EMA at $4,569 and the 100-EMA at $4,493 on the 2-hour chart. This shows that the correction does not threaten the overall bullish structure. Bears have been unable to push price below $4,619 and $4,567 thus far. This further supports the bullish structure. A rejection at the level of $4,696 signifies that the bears have returned, but this is likely to be a short-term setback as buyers defend the higher-low structure.
The RSI, currently sitting at 55, reflects that price momentum has shifted from being overbought and is now in a neutral range. Price may trade around support at $4,619 and below, at $4,567, $4,508 and $4,448. If previous support is broken price may continue to fall. Resistance levels may be found at $4,696 and above at $4,756, $4,812.
According to my analysis, there is a bullish trend as long as gold holds $4,619. A break above $4,696 may be followed by further buying up to the levels of $4,756 to $4,812. Conversely, if price breaks below $4,567, a deeper consolidation may happen around $4,508.
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index is at $99.02, up slightly from $98.55 on the 2-hour chart. While the rebound gives some short-term momentum to the DXY, it still sits below both the 100-EMA at $99.22 and the 50-EMA at $99.02, with an overall downtrend remaining intact. Until this changes, the structure will continue to be bearish.
RSI also shows the short term rebound and is currently at 55, which shows a recovery from oversold conditions and a move back above the neutral 50 level. There is resistance at $99.13 and $99.27, and even further at $99.38 and $99.71. If buying pressure pushes the price above these, $100.03 and $100.42 will be the next targets. In the event downward pressure remains at $98.99, $98.82, and $98.55, there is still downside.
In my opinion, the DXY is still under pressure unless a break of the $99.38 level is made. A break of this resistance zone could be the catalyst to push to $98.82, $98.55. In the event an upward break is made from the $99.13 – $99.38 resistance zone, it would be very bullish.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Consolidates Above $1.3618 With $1.3656 Resistance in Focus
The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.3640 during the European trading session on Tuesday, even as the US Dollar Index (DXY) edges up, indicating strength in the British currency.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades slightly higher to near 99.10.
The Pound Sterling gains despite market experts seeing the Bank of England (BoE) holding interest rates steady in the near term.
UK inflation surprise limited as BoE pricing eases
Analysts at Danske Bank note that UK inflation data for July were broadly in line with expectations, with headline CPI rising to "2.9% y/y (cons: 2.9%, prior: 2.6%), mainly driven by the 13% increase in the Ofgem energy price cap from 1 July." They highlight that "core inflation was slightly higher than expected at 2.6% y/y (cons: 2.5%, prior: 2.6%)," while "services eased in line with expectations to 3.4% y/y (cons: 3.4%, prior: 3.6%)." According to Danske, the combination of this inflation print and "yesterday's weak labour market data" has "taken the top off BoE pricing for the remainder of the year."
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades higher against its other peers as investors fear that fresh United States (US) sanctions on Iran could lift oil prices higher and eventually US Treasury Yields.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades at 1.3640, maintaining a bullish near-term bias, with price holding above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3531, which reinforces an underlying supportive structure after the recent advance.
The Relative Strength Index (14) near 69 suggests strong upside momentum, though it is flirting with overbought territory, hinting that gains could become more gradual if buyers pause ahead of fresh catalysts.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around 1.3530, where a break would expose a deeper correction toward prior lows not visible in the current indicator set. As long as GBP/USD remains above this moving average, the broader constructive tone is likely to persist, with any shallow pullbacks viewed as corrective within the ongoing uptrend.
Strategists at Scotiabank describe the current technical backdrop for GBP/USD as "solidly bullish," noting that after a period of range trading and "two tests of 1.3150 (April and June)," the pair now appears better poised to advance. They argue that "a sustained push above 1.3650/60 implies potential for an extension towards the 1.41 zone over the balance of the year," underscoring their view that the underlying trend dynamics continue to favour further Pound appreciation.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The USD/CAD pair is seen building on its recovery move from the 1.3730 region, or a three-month low touched last week, and gaining positive traction for the second straight day on Tuesday. Spot prices stick to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session and currently trade around the 1.3865 area, up 0.15% for the day.
The US Dollar (USD) attracts some follow-through buying as inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices keep bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the table. Apart from this, geopolitical uncertainties stemming from the US-Iran standoff act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback. Furthermore, a modest downtick in crude oil prices and the deepening US-Canada trade war undermine the commodity-linked Loonie, lending additional support to the USD/CAD pair.
From a technical perspective, an intraday move above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August decline could be seen as a key trigger for bullish traders. Moreover, momentum indicators are leaning constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 62 and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings staying in positive territory. This hints that buyers are attempting to stabilize the USD/CAD pair after its recent pullback and build on the recovery from a multi-month low.
Any subsequent move up, however, might confront an immediate resistance near the 1.3900 mark ahead of the 1.3925-1.3930 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibo. level. A further recovery attempt would face additional supply around the 50.0% level at 1.3988 and the 61.8% retracement at 1.4049. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.3852, with a deeper floor emerging at the Fibo. anchor near 1.3731 if selling resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD 4-hour chart
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.17%-0.04%0.37%0.39%0.26%0.35%0.29%EUR-0.17%-0.21%0.11%0.22%0.09%0.19%0.12%GBP0.04%0.21%0.24%0.45%0.32%0.39%0.35%JPY-0.37%-0.11%-0.24%0.08%-0.03%0.06%-0.00%CAD-0.39%-0.22%-0.45%-0.08%-0.08%-0.01%-0.10%AUD-0.26%-0.09%-0.32%0.03%0.08%0.08%0.03%NZD-0.35%-0.19%-0.39%-0.06%0.01%-0.08%-0.05%CHF-0.29%-0.12%-0.35%0.00%0.10%-0.03%0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
MUFG’s Derek Halpenny and Abdul-Ahad Lockhart highlight that Gold’s recent strength alongside USD weakness and higher US yields has not historically confirmed a debasement story. They find that in past episodes, Gold often corrected as DXY stabilised, but if US yields were to fall materially, history points to a regime where Gold rallies further and sustained Dollar softness becomes more likely.
Yield dynamics key for Gold outlookOur analysis examines similar previous episodes of USD weakness, gold strength and rising Treasury yields testing whether subsequent market behaviour validates the debasement narrative. The historical evidence suggests it does not.
"Across prior episodes, extreme readings in the signal were not followed by persistent USD weakness. Instead, DXY typically stabilised, while gold frequently corrected over the subsequent one to three months."
"If that backdrop were to change and yields began falling materially, history points to a different regime."
"In previous episodes where USD weakness and gold strength coincided with declining yields, gold continued to rally and sustained USD softness became more likely."
"A move from rising to falling yields represents an important signal that the market is transitioning from a fiscal and term-premium story towards an easing-driven USD bearish environment."
"As long as yields remain elevated, the more likely outcome is dollar stabilisation, gold consolidation and selective outperformance in carry-sensitive FX rather than a sustained debasement."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $68.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Tuesday. However, Silver may regain ground as US government interventions in the bond market revive the debasement trade. The momentum stems from the US Treasury’s announcement that it will double its buyback operations for longer-dated bonds. Reports indicate that Secretary Bessent could utilize up to $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to finance these repurchases, a move capable of significantly altering market liquidity and Treasury yields.
However, market participants speculate that these intervention measures might offer only a temporary solution. The aggressive buyback strategy has renewed broader concerns regarding the risks of an escalating US debt crisis, persistent inflation, and potential dollar weakness.
Beyond macroeconomic and monetary factors, Silver may draw fundamental support from robust industrial consumption. Demand remains particularly strong across key growth sectors, driven by the green energy transition, photovoltaic solar panel production, electric vehicles, and expanding artificial intelligence data center infrastructure.
Silver prices could track the expected upward momentum in gold. Commerzbank notes that safe-haven demand for Gold is being reinforced by a further escalation in US sanctions policy toward Iran. The bank highlights that the US has "expanded sanctions targeting Iran's oil revenues, shipping, aviation, technology, gold and digital assets, while putting third-party countries that continue doing business with Iran on notice for potential secondary sanctions." In Commerzbank’s view, this broadening of the sanctions net adds to the prevailing geopolitical and fiscal uncertainty that has recently supported Gold prices.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Platinum has taken a unique path within the broader precious metals market. It’s rarer than gold and enjoys a strong demand due to its broad industrial use, which sometimes pushes its market value even above that of gold. Yet, for much of the past decade, platinum has traded well below the price of gold and palladium.
The long-standing price difference may now be on the verge of reversing as the next commodity cycle takes hold. With platinum supply remaining limited and its demand continuing to grow, it’s likely to be the new ‘value metal.’
Let’s look closer at the mechanics at play.
There’s a persistent guaranteed supply problemOne of platinum’s key strengths is that its supply cannot be expanded quickly. The World Platinum investment Council (WPIC) forecasts that the platinum supply will remain in deficit for the fourth consecutive year in 2026, with demand projected to exceed supply by about 297,000 ounces. Global platinum inventories held above ground are expected to decline to roughly 1.747 million ounces, which would leave the platinum market with less than three months of global demand in available inventories.
Tight inventories like these tend to amplify price movements, making commodity prices vulnerable to sudden shifts in demand.
Moreover, platinum production only happens in a handful of countries. Adding to this supply would be a long-term undertaking requiring significant capital and as long as eight to 12 years to reach full output. Hence, even a sustained price increase may not produce an immediate supply response.
A broader industrial demand could sustain Platinum pricesInvestors have traditionally valued gold as a monetary asset with the ability to preserve wealth over time. Although platinum shares some of gold’s investment appeal, its industrial applications add another dimension to its value
Platinum’s role in the automotive industry is especially significant because it’s used in catalytic converters to control harmful exhaust emissions. Although the growing adoption of electric vehicles could weigh on the demand for platinum over time, the transition has yet to eliminate the metal’s broader sources of consumption.
Industrial consumption could also play a larger role in platinum’s demand outlook. Industrial demand is predicted to increase by 9% in 2026. Hydrogen technology is also another potential demand growth area for platinum as it is used in fuel cells and electrolyzers.
All of these current and growing industrial uses point to platinum’s sustained long-term demand.
Investment demand is also growingPlatinum’s relatively discounted price may also give it added appeal for investors seeking diversification within the precious metals sector. Gold’s strong price gains have prompted some investors to look toward other precious metals with greater exposure to industrial demand and constrained supply.
WPIC predicts a significant increase in physical platinum investment in 2026, with demand for bars and coins expected to reach about 718,000 ounces, which would be a six-year high.
The introduction of platinum and palladium derivatives in China could further influence the market. Trading in futures and options began on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange in late 2025, and it may help broaden local participation and improve price formation. This market is likely to increase investor participation.
The risks to considerWhile sustained demand and the possibility of higher prices is appealing to investors, it’s worth noting that platinum is not without risks.
Firstly, because industrial use accounts for a larger share of platinum demand, a slowdown in the global economy could reduce its demand. For example, the continued shift toward battery-electric vehicles is likely to gradually reduce automotive demand, which has previously been a significant platinum supporter.
Secondly, rising platinum prices could make recycling more attractive, increasing the amount of platinum returning to the market from secondary sources. Thirdly, investor demand could also fluctuate, especially when investors sell to lock in profits after strong price gains.
The combination of these factors suggest that platinum should not be treated as a guaranteed substitute for gold or as a sure path to higher prices.
Several factors are increasingly coming together to strengthen platinum’s potential as the next value metal, from constrained production to growing industrial demand and renewed investor interest. If the next commodity cycle combines stronger industrial activity with sustained demand, platinum could see a meaningful upward revaluation.
For investors considering platinum bullion, understanding platinum’s supply, demand, and market dynamics may help with predicting where prices will move in the near term. But for now, platinum remains a volatile asset with significant price swings driven by changes in industrial demand, investor behavior, available supply, and the economy as a whole.
As with any precious metal, investors should consider their financial objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity, premiums, and storage considerations before purchasing physical platinum.
Daily gold chart showing the correction from the $5,602 high to the $3,942 low, followed by a rebound to $4,640. Source: TradingView In the commodities complex, oil benchmarks were on the ropes yesterday, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s speech adding little volatility. Spot gold versus the USD, on the other hand, reached a high of US$4,696 – its highest level since mid-May. This rally is largely underpinned by planned US Treasury bond buybacks and an overall lower USD.
‘Operation Outcast’ Yesterday, the focus was largely on Bessent. Under President Trump’s direction, Bessent launched ‘Operation Economic Outcast’, described as an ‘economic onslaught’. The objective is to ‘sever’ every economic lifeline until ‘Tehran stands alone’, targeting five sectors: digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping.
Bessent warned that any country doing business with Tehran would be cut off from the US dollar system. No countries were named, and he neither confirmed nor denied whether China would be in their crosshairs – for context, Beijing imports around 80% of Iran’s exported oil. Bessent also emphasised that no one is above US sanctions and noted that Trump would personally call countries to ensure compliance.
While I could be wrong, I feel we have seen this movie several times during this 6-month conflict between the US and Iran. The specifics of the sanctions were few and far between, and this could be the Trump administration – despite their hyperbole – effectively running out of runway.
Until we know the weight behind these sanctions and how they will apply economic pressure on Iran to get it back to the negotiating table, this is far from a ‘D-Day’ scenario; it is more of a ‘warning shot’ to entities doing business with Iran. Furthermore, I am not sure how much effect this will even have on the Iranian regime; Tehran has weathered sanctions for years, and its approach has remained the same.
Once again, more questions than answers.
Earlier this month, you will recall that the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% for a second consecutive meeting. The latest bank forecasts showed a downward revision to the cash rate to 4.4%, with the YY trimmed-mean inflation forecast also revised lower to 3.3% by year-end, to 3% by June 2027, and is expected to reach the mid-point of the 2-3% target range by late 2027 or mid-2028.
Essentially, the latest forecasts signalled to traders that the central bank does not see the need to hike rates to bring inflation down. However, what caught many off guard was that, in her press conference, RBA Governor Michelle Bullock struck a hawkish tone, noting that inflation risks remain to the upside and that a rate hike was discussed at the meeting. This reversed the immediate downside in the AUD.
Earlier this month, the July Australian employment report was released, showing job growth fell by nearly 16,000 (from an upwardly revised 80,000 in June) and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.5% from 4.4%. On the face of it, this was a poor report, and the AUD sold off as a result. Nevertheless, the drop in employment was largely due to a fall in part-time jobs – full-time employment actually jumped by around 16,000. Layer this in with the 4.5% unemployment reading lining up with the RBA’s end-of-year forecast, and this helps explain the lack of oomph in the immediate move lower and only a modest dovish repricing in cash rate expectations.
The overall tone remains hawkish heading into tomorrow’s print, reinforced again on 19 August by RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser, who said rates may need to rise again if inflation does not cool and that policy needs to actively suppress demand. Year-end market pricing implies about a 50% chance that the RBA hikes rates.
If inflation comes in softer than expected, this would – given the recent jobs print – help build the case for the RBA to remain on hold this year. On the back of this, I would expect STIR futures to rise as traders price out tightening bets for September and perhaps even November, and the AUD to take a hit. If CPI surprises to the upside despite a loosening labour market, it would put the RBA in an awkward spot – squeezed between persistent inflation and weakening employment. Although this could see some AUD upside, I feel it could be a tricky one to trade. A broad miss would offer the cleaner read, I believe.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst, Aaron Hill
The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains on the defensive against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, in a low-volatility market, as investors await key data releases and the Jackson Hole symposium, due in the second half of the week, to make decisions. The USD/JPY pair extends gains to levels past 159.30 at the European session opening, drawing closer to the key 160.00 level.
Investors’ fears about another intervention are keeping Yen dips limited, but the mix of concerns about Japan’s fiscal stability and the gap between the interest rates of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and those of the rest of the major central banks is proving a strong headwind for Yen appreciation.
Volatility, on the other hand, remains relatively low, with markets awaiting the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index figures, due on Wednesday and, above all, the Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. The market will be eager to know the impact of the US Treasury’s bond repurchasing plans on the bank’s monetary policy and to check Warsh’s resolve to fight above-target inflation.
Technical Analysis: US Dollar holds a mild bullish bias
USD/JPY trades at 159.32, highlighting a series of higher lows and higher highs since bottoming near 155.20 in early August, with bulls aiming for the 160.00 level. Momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are moderately positive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 58, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showing widening green bars, altogether suggesting that bulls are in control.
Initial resistance is seen in the area between the August 18 high, at 159.75, and the 160.00 level, considered a potential trigger for a Tokyo intervention. Further up, the July 31 high, near 160.90, would come into focus.
On the downside, an unlikely bearish reversal would be tested at the June 19 low of 158.10, ahead of the August 7 low, near 156.70, and the mentioned post-intervention low, at 155.23.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.03%0.14%0.10%0.02%0.05%0.11%EUR-0.05%-0.02%0.09%0.04%-0.04%-0.03%0.06%GBP-0.03%0.02%0.13%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.08%JPY-0.14%-0.09%-0.13%-0.06%-0.13%-0.12%-0.03%CAD-0.10%-0.04%-0.06%0.06%-0.07%-0.07%0.02%AUD-0.02%0.04%0.00%0.13%0.07%0.02%0.07%NZD-0.05%0.03%-0.00%0.12%0.07%-0.02%0.08%CHF-0.11%-0.06%-0.08%0.03%-0.02%-0.07%-0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Pound-Canadian Dollar exchange rate could extend its recent gains if US-Canada trade tensions deepen, although firmer oil prices may offer the Loonie some support. The Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate rose sharply on Monday, hitting its highest level in 17 days, as a trade war erupted between the US and Canada.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8855, up 0.4% on the day and at its highest level in over two weeks.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.888718 (+0.55%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.615651 (+0.50%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.38566 (+0.65%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) faced heavy selling pressure on Monday as markets reacted to a breakdown in US-Canada trade talks.
Negotiations collapsed on Friday, with Washington imposing 50% tariffs on $20bn worth of Canadian goods. Canada retaliated, plunging the North American countries into a trade war.
Concerns about how this could impact the Canadian economy weighed heavily on CAD on Monday, as the US is Canada’s largest trading partner.
Meanwhile, a drop in oil prices also put pressure on the crude-linked ‘Loonie’.
Turning to the Pound (GBP), Sterling was muted on Monday amid a lack of UK economic data.
This left the British currency to trade without a clear overall direction, with Sterling facing mixed movement against its peers.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: US-Canada Trade War to Weigh on the ‘Loonie’? Looking forward, the only economic data due Tuesday is Canada’s preliminary wholesale sales for July. A forecast 1.3% slump in sales growth could pressure the ‘Loonie’.
However, CAD investors may be focused on US-Canada trade tensions and oil price dynamics. Concerns about an escalating trade war could pile pressure on the Canadian Dollar, while CAD could find some cushioning if oil prices rise amid the conflict in the Middle East.
As for the Pound, UK economic data is in short supply. As a result, movement in Sterling may be limited.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Euro (EUR) trades marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, extending its corrective move from the four-day high of 1.1711 to near 1.1655 during the European trading session. The major currency pair comes under pressure as the US Dollar recovers further amid caution ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July and the outcome of the Jackson Hole Symposium.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1$ higher to near 99.07.
Financial market experts believe that while caution ahead of key events has offered some ground to the US Dollar, there is no reflection of a change in trend for the currency.
USD upside seen near term even as broader trend stays under pressure
Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that “calendar and event risk this week is significant,” and argue that the backdrop creates “the potential for some moderate gains in the USD broadly in the short run” as investors move to pare back positioning. However, they caution that the broader technical backdrop remains fragile, noting that “technical trends remain bearish and while oscillator signals are showing some moderation in the dollar decline, no reversal is evident at this point.”
Meanwhile, the outlook of the Euro remains broadly firm on expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates next month.
Eurozone resilience underpins September ECB hike expectations
Analysts at Nomura continue to look for a September move from the ECB, stating that they “expect the ECB to raise rates in September,” and arguing that “today’s activity data may ease concerns from more dovish policymakers that are keen not to restrict activity more than necessary.” They also highlight the latest ECB Consumer Expectations Survey as a key gauge of medium-term price pressures, noting that “in the July survey, despite the re-escalation of the Iran war in July, 3y ahead median inflation expectations continued to normalise and declined by 0.1pp to 2.7%, whereas 5y ahead median inflation expectations were unchanged at 2.4%.”
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades at around 1.1654, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1577, suggesting buyers remain in control
The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers in firm positive territory near 67, hinting at strong but not yet extreme upside momentum.
On the downside, initial support is the June 15 high at 1.1622, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.1577. Looking up, the pair needs a decisive break above the August high at 1.1711 to resume the uptrend. On the upside, the major hurdle for the pair will be the May high near 1.1800.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann keep a constructive stance on EUR/USD despite recent consolidation around 1.1660. They still see room for upside toward 1.1725 in the coming weeks as long as support at 1.1630 holds. On a 1–3 month horizon, they highlight a decisive technical break and positive weekly MACD, pointing to targets at 1.1800 and 1.1850.
Constructive bias with higher targets"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR rose to 1.1711 last Friday and then eased to close largely unchanged at 1.1679 (+0.01%). When EUR was at 1.1675 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that EUR “could ease further, but any decline should stay within a range of 1.1645/1.1700.” EUR subsequently traded between 1.1655 and 1.1687. EUR closed modestly lower by 0.15% at 1.1662. The price action provides no fresh clues, and further range-trading appears likely, expected to be between 1.1650 and 1.1685."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Tracking our positive EUR view from early last week, we highlighted on Thursday (20 Aug, spot at 1.1675) that “there is room for further upside in EUR toward 1.1725.” EUR subsequently tested the 1.1710 level twice, but it has since eased. That said, we will continue to hold the same view as long as EUR holds above 1.1630 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1615)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 9,177.82 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 9,229.52 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 107,049.30 per tola from PHP 107,651.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
9,177.82
10 Grams
91,778.73
Tola
107,049.30
Troy Ounce
285,458.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 558.48 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 561.61 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,514.01 per tola from SAR 6,550.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
558.48
10 Grams
5,584.81
Tola
6,514.01
Troy Ounce
17,370.72
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 546.42 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 549.31 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 6,373.38 per tola from AED 6,407.09 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
546.42
10 Grams
5,464.24
Tola
6,373.38
Troy Ounce
16,995.69
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 41,247.40 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 41,489.53 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 481,096.90 per tola from PKR 483,925.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
41,247.40
10 Grams
412,470.00
Tola
481,096.90
Troy Ounce
1,282,853.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 602.73 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 605.33 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 7,029.83 per tola from MYR 7,060.45 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
602.73
10 Grams
6,026.89
Tola
7,029.83
Troy Ounce
18,746.96
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 14,243.41 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 14,315.82 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 166,130.60 per tola from INR 166,976.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
14,243.41
10 Grams
142,435.40
Tola
166,130.60
Troy Ounce
443,015.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Dollar Index remains bearish below 99.40, with scope to slip towards 98.50 or lower after any near-term test of 99.40. EURUSD is expected to regain momentum above 1.17 and target 1.18 or higher, while Dollar-Yen may rise slowly towards 160 before easing back unless it breaks decisively higher. EURINR and EURJPY retain bullish outlooks towards 112.50 and 186-188 respectively, while USDCNY could eventually break below 6.72 towards 6.70. Aussie could target 0.72-0.73 while Pound could face initial resistance near 1.37. USDINR may remain sideways between 95.50 and 95.75, a break above 95.75 would open chances of testing 96-96.30.
The US Treasury and the German Yields continue to sustain higher but are stable. The Treasury Yields remain bullish and can rise more. The US PCE data release tomorrow will need a close watch. The German Yields have some room to rise from here. A corrective fall is possible thereafter before the upside extends further. The 10Yr GoI is holding above its intermediate support. That keeps the upside open to see more rise before the broader downtrend resumes.
Global equities remain mixed. Dow and DAX are holding a constructive bias and can rise towards 53500-54000 and 26250-26500 respectively. Nifty remains positive above the key 24100 support and can move towards 24400 over the week. Nikkei continues to face resistance near 66000 and remains vulnerable to a decline towards 64500-64000. Shanghai remains weak below 3900 and can decline further towards 3800 in the near term.
Commodities remain broadly constructive, with Brent and WTI likely to remain range-bound within $80-$95 and $75-$90 respectively. Gold continues to strengthen in line with expectations and can rise further towards $4750-$4800. Silver can advance towards $70-$75, while Copper can rise towards $6.65-$6.75. Natural Gas has reached $2.80 as expected and can extend its gains towards $3.00 in the coming sessions.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
EUR/JPY appreciates after two days of gains, trading around 185.80 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross remains within the ascending channel pattern, signaling an ongoing bullish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bullish near-term tone as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.45 stays in positive territory, suggesting firm but not overstretched upside momentum.
The EUR/JPY cross may explore the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.70, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross may test the immediate support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 185.50, followed by the nine-day EMA of 185.07 and the 50-day EMA at 184.70. A break below this confluence support zone may cause the bearish reversal, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its nine-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.
Yen focus shifts from intervention to BoJ fundamentalsStrategists at Scotiabank observe that the recent Yen narrative is evolving, with markets moving away from the summer’s emphasis on official action. They note that “the market narrative appears to be shifting from the official intervention that dominated through much of the summer,” with participants “now tightening their focus on fundamentals into the September 18 BoJ meeting.” This refocusing on underlying drivers, rather than headline intervention risk, is increasingly shaping positioning in JPY ahead of the policy decision.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.04%0.14%0.09%0.02%0.02%0.16%EUR-0.06%-0.02%0.11%0.03%-0.04%-0.07%0.10%GBP-0.04%0.02%0.13%0.05%-0.01%-0.04%0.12%JPY-0.14%-0.11%-0.13%-0.07%-0.14%-0.17%0.00%CAD-0.09%-0.03%-0.05%0.07%-0.07%-0.09%0.07%AUD-0.02%0.04%0.00%0.14%0.07%-0.02%0.10%NZD-0.02%0.07%0.04%0.17%0.09%0.02%0.16%CHF-0.16%-0.10%-0.12%-0.00%-0.07%-0.10%-0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.6% to near $67.87 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal is under pressure as investors turn cautious ahead of the United States (US) Personal Consumer Expenditure Price Index (PCE) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.
Investors will pay close attention to the US core PCE inflation data, which is the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, to get fresh cues regarding the monetary policy outlook.
Fed’s preferred gauge seen staying in strike zone as US spending cools
According to TD Securities, July’s inflation data should keep the Fed’s preferred gauge comfortably aligned with its objectives, with analysts expecting that "core PCE inflation is expected to hit the Fed's strike zone for a second consecutive report in July, despite picking up to 0.24% m/m." They anticipate that "headline prices likely rose by a tamer 0.15%," while stressing that "more importantly, we expect the market-based core PCE to stay contained at 0.13% m/m." On the activity side, TD highlights that "weak retail sales data point to slowing in consumer spending to 0.2% m/m in July and a softer 0.1% in real terms," and, looking further ahead, notes that "we look for gradual disinflation to resume in 2027."
According to the FX Economic Calendar, the annualized core PCE inflation is expected to have grown at a steady pace of 3.4%.
Higher inflationary pressures prompt fears of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). Such a scenario bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
This week, the major trigger for the Silver price will be Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments at theJackson Hole Symposium on Thursday. Historically, Warsh is known to avoid providing “forward guidance” on interest rates, but will likely warn of upside inflation risks.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at around $67.87, maintaining a bullish near-term tone as price holds decisively above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $64.64.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 61.7, staying in positive territory and suggesting that upside momentum remains constructive even after the latest consolidation.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the $64.64 area where the 20-day EMA aligns as the first significant demand zone, with any deeper pullback likely viewed as corrective while price holds above this moving average. On the upside, the white metal needs to break above the August 21 high near $70 to extend the rally towards the June 15 high at $71.33, followed by the June high at 77.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Bitcoin jumps above US$80K for the first time in 3 monthsJapan to weigh tax incentives for retail JGB investors, Katayama saysGold has been slammed down $50 and oil has jumpedOil is still quietly crossing Hormuz, TotalEnergies CEO saysRBA minutes reveal live debate over a pre-emptive August hikeChina leans hardest against yuan gains in six months, AUD softensCiti lifts near-term gold target to $4,800, JPMorgan flags $5kBank of Korea rate call a coin toss as economists split on August hikePBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7852 (vs. estimate at 6.7219)Asian equites shunted lower at opening, South Korea and Japan both downGold holds near three-month high as debasement trade returnsLegendary investor Druckenmiller says Treasury is suppressing the bond market's warning signalMUFG sees yen risk skewed weaker despite 80% BOJ hike oddsTanker struck by projectile off Oman, UKMTO saysWaking up? Catch up time! Bessent softens Iran sanctions tone as Treasury's yield fix unravelsDollar slips to lowest since May as Treasury doubles bond buybacks, what's next?BOJ likely to hike next month and again in January, says ex-board memberIts the Toothless vs. the Clueless. SEC to investigate Situational Awareness near collapse.Oil slips over $2 as traders shrug off fresh US sanctions on IranICYMI - Morgan Stanley lifts Brent forecast to $100 as oil market tightensBroader US stocks close lower with Chip/AI stocks under pressureinvestingLive Americas market news wrap: Trump and Canada trade threatsSummary:
A tanker was struck by a projectile off Oman while transiting a US-protected lane, according to UKMTO, even as Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi reported significant progress in talks with Iranian leadership; oil eked out a small gain on the sessionGold pushed above $4,690, approaching resistance near the $4,700 round number, before dropping sharply to below $4,640 with no clear catalyst identified for the reversalStanley Druckenmiller, described as a mentor to both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, wrote in the Wall Street Journal criticising Treasury's recent bond buyback push to suppress long-term yieldsThe RBA minutes confirmed the board held rates unanimously at 4.35% in August, judging policy already restrictive enough for now while flagging upside inflation risks and readiness to hike again if neededFormer BOJ board member Seiji Adachi told Bloomberg the BOJ will likely hike next month and again as early as January, warning a hold could reignite yen weakness and faster import-driven inflationMUFG said September BOJ hike odds have climbed to around 80% without generating yen buying, arguing the move reflects market pressure on the BOJ rather than its own guidanceThe PBOC set its yuan midpoint 633 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate, the largest weak side deviation since February 27, with the Australian dollar among the currencies to weaken in responseCanadian government ministers are due to announce a response to US tariffs at 1100 US Eastern time, 1500 GMT, on Tuesday Oil edged marginally higher on the session, supported by a mix of geopolitical developments that offered no clear net direction. UKMTO reported a tanker had been struck by a projectile off Oman while transiting a US-protected lane, keeping shipping security risk in focus. Offsetting that, Pakistan's Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi said talks with Iranian leadership had made significant progress, a development that, if it holds, would point toward de-escalation rather than further disruption.
Gold had a volatile session, briefly pushing above $4,690 an ounce and approaching resistance at the $4,700 round number before reversing sharply to trade below $4,640, with no clear catalyst identified for the move. The broader rally that has taken gold to its highest level since mid-May remains intact, with the metal continuing to draw support from renewed fiscal sustainability concerns following the apparent failure of the Treasury's bond market intervention to durably lower yields, a dynamic that has reinforced demand for bullion as an alternative store of value even as the day's price action showed how quickly sentiment can swing without an obvious trigger.
That fiscal debate found a prominent voice in Stanley Druckenmiller, who wrote in the Wall Street Journal criticising the Treasury's recent moves to suppress long-term bond yields. Druckenmiller, who has mentored both Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, argued the approach amounted to price management rather than genuine liquidity support. His view reflects a broader institutional debate over whether such intervention is sustainable, with proponents of that reading arguing it points toward a continuation of the dollar debasement trade and further upward pressure on yields should Treasury persist with the strategy.
Central bank developments were a significant feature of the session. Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia's August meeting confirmed the board held the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, judging that policy already sat at a sufficiently restrictive level while explicitly flagging that risks to the inflation outlook remain skewed to the upside and that it stands ready to hike further if those risks materialise.
In Japan, former Bank of Japan board member Seiji Adachi told Bloomberg he expects the BOJ to raise rates next month and again as early as January, warning that a decision to hold steady could reignite yen weakness and add to import-driven inflation pressure. MUFG offered a related but distinct read, noting that market pricing for a September hike has climbed to around 80% without generating corresponding yen buying, a disconnect the bank said suggests the shift reflects pressure on the BOJ from the market rather than a result of the central bank's own communication, leaving near-term yen risk skewed to the downside.
Elsewhere in Asia, the People's Bank of China set its yuan midpoint 633 pips weaker than a Reuters estimate, the largest weak side deviation from market expectations since February 27. The Australian dollar was among the currencies to weaken in reaction, consistent with its tendency to trade as a proxy for shifts in Chinese currency and growth sentiment.
Looking ahead, attention turns to Canada, where government ministers are scheduled to announce a response to US tariffs at 1100 US Eastern time, or 1500 GMT, on Tuesday, a development likely to add a fresh trade policy dimension to the session ahead.
TL;DR: AUD/USD barely moved on RBA minutes that confirmed, but didn’t change, the existing hawkish-hold debate — the real signal was the Board’s openness to pre-emptive tightening based on monthly data alone, which keeps a September hike live even without the Q3 quarterly CPI, making Wednesday’s July print the more consequential test.
Minutes Confirm Debate, but Give Aussie Little New to Trade AUD/USD barely moved after minutes of RBA’s Aug. 10–11 meeting, slipping only modestly from recent 0.71790 high. Muted reaction made sense. Minutes confirmed what markets already understood from August’s hawkish hold: Board genuinely considered a 25bp hike, but ultimately judged policy at 4.35% “appeared sufficiently restrictive” and that there was still time to gather more evidence. Governor Michele Bullock has already said further tightening is “quite possible,” while Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser struck a somewhat more assertive tone last week. Minutes added detail to that debate without materially changing it.
More important was language around acting before inflation risks are fully confirmed. Members explicitly discussed whether it “may be appropriate to mitigate those risks somewhat by tightening monetary policy pre-emptively,” while several judged it “quite possible” that upside risks would crystallise and require further tightening. That leaves RBA with two live arguments: current policy may already be restrictive enough, but waiting becomes harder to justify if incoming inflation data suggest upside risks are beginning to materialise.
Wednesday’s CPI Is Where Repricing Risk Begins That makes Wednesday’s July CPI much more consequential than Tuesday’s minutes. It is the only monthly inflation report RBA will receive before Sept. 28–29 meeting, with August CPI not due until Sept. 30. Board itself specifically highlighted incoming monthly inflation and labour-market reports as important inputs before its next decision. There will therefore be no second inflation print available to confirm—or offset—whatever signal July data deliver.
That reference to monthly inflation data is important in its own right. Combined with Board’s willingness to consider pre-emptive tightening, it implicitly suggests policymakers do not necessarily need to wait for full Q3 quarterly CPI before acting. If monthly data show inflation risks strengthening, September meeting can remain live even though complete quarterly inflation picture will not yet be available. In other words, RBA has left itself room to respond to emerging evidence rather than requiring confirmation from traditional quarterly CPI cycle.
Labor side already points in a softer direction. July employment fell 15.8K, while unemployment rose from 4.4% to 4.5%. Another labour report is due only days before September meeting, giving Board a fresh employment read. Inflation calendar is less forgiving. A hot CPI would not guarantee a September hike, but it would raise cost of waiting and strengthen case for acting before Q3 CPI is available. A softer reading would reinforce argument that 4.35% is already doing enough and give policymakers more reason to use time rather than another rate increase.
ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/USD: Hot CPI Could Put 0.72770 Back in Sight AUD/USD technical setup reflects that policy tension. Recovery from 0.68640 remains constructive, with a higher low at 0.69210 followed by a break above 0.70260 and an advance to 0.71790. Pair is now consolidating just below nearby 161.8% projection of 0.6864 to 0.7026 from 0.6921 at 0.7183, while daily momentum remains positive.
A hotter-than-expected CPI would strengthen case for another RBA hike and, crucially, keep September tightening firmly in play without waiting for Q3 CPI. That could drive AUD/USD through 0.71790 toward 0.72770 cycle high. But a sustained break of 0.72770 would probably require cooperation from Dollar side as well. DXY has spent the past two sessions consolidating rather than extending its broader decline, so cleanest bullish combination would be sticky Australian inflation alongside renewed USD weakness.
By contrast, an in-line or softer CPI could trigger a deeper pullback toward 0.70650. As long as that support holds, broader recovery from 0.68640 would remain intact and weakness would look more like consolidation than trend reversal. Minutes told markets RBA can afford to wait, but they also suggested it does not have to wait for quarterly CPI if monthly evidence becomes convincing. Wednesday’s CPI will show whether September stays merely possible—or becomes a much more immediate policy risk.
Key Takeaways RBA minutes confirmed the Board seriously considered a hike but judged 4.35% sufficiently restrictive for now, adding detail to the existing debate without shifting it. The Board explicitly discussed pre-emptive tightening, meaning it may act on monthly CPI data alone without waiting for the full Q3 quarterly print. Wednesday’s July CPI is the only monthly inflation read before the September 28-29 meeting, making it more consequential for policy than the minutes themselves. Weaker labor data (July employment -15.8K, unemployment up to 4.5%) already points dovish, leaving the inflation print as the clearer swing factor for September. AUD/USD holds a positive bias above 0.7183 resistance toward 0.7277, but a sustained break likely needs both a hot CPI and renewed Dollar weakness; a soft print risks a pullback toward 0.7065.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
GBP/USD started a steady increase and climbed above 1.3650. A bullish trend line is forming with support near 1.3580 on the 4-hour chart. Gold surged and broke the $4,620 resistance zone. Bitcoin remained elevated, and the bulls could aim for a close above $80,000. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound found support near 1.3450 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started another increase above the 1.3580 resistance zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.3600, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair climbed above 1.3650 and traded as high as 1.3675 on TitanFX before it started a consolidation phase.
On the downside, an immediate support could be near 1.3600 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3524 swing low to the 1.3675 high.
The first major support could be near 1.3580. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3580. The next major support could be near 1.3525 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).
The main support might be 1.3450 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.3450 might send the pair toward 1.3320. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.3250.
On the upside, the pair could face resistance near the 1.3675 level. The next major resistance might be 1.3720. A close above 1.3720 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3800. Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.3865.
Looking at Gold, the bulls seem to be back, and they might aim for a move above the $4,720 resistance level.
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Gold has pulled back sharply from fresh 15-week highs of $4,697, snapping a two-day uptrend in Asia on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) holds onto recovery gains, capping further upside in the bullion.
Gold is down but not outThe USD remains supported amid a risk-off market environment that extends into early Tuesday, as the decline in technology stocks, combined with the United States (US) sanctions on Iran and a renewed uptick in Oil prices, saps investors’ confidence.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that the US was launching an "economic onslaught" against Iran's financial connections around the globe.
“The US threatened damaging new sanctions on countries that refuse to cut economic ties with Iran but stopped short of actually imposing big new penalties,” per CNN News.
In response, Iranian Economy Minister Ali Madanizadeh said Tuesday: "Naturally, the enemies intend to launch an economic terrorist attack on us, but we also have our own tools and know how to play the game. Our defense is no longer so defensive; the enemies should wait for an attack.”
These renewed geopolitical tensions propelled Oil prices, reviving inflation fears and the USD’s safe-haven appeal, slamming Gold nearly $70 so far.
Rising Oil prices also drive US Treasury bond yields higher, aiding the Greenback’s recovery at the expense of the non-yielding bullion.
However, any corrective downside in the precious metal could likely be limited by reduced bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September and robust physical demand from India and China.
Additionally, the daily technical setup also remains supportive of a ‘buy-the-dip’ strategy for Gold traders amid a relatively light US economic docket.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,636.02, extending a bullish bias as price holds above all key moving averages. Spot gold remains supported by the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at roughly $4,323 and the 100-day SMA near $4,379, while the longer-term 200-day SMA around $4,520 has been reclaimed as underlying demand. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at about 71 sits in overbought territory, suggesting upside momentum remains firm but leaves the metal vulnerable to corrective pullbacks.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA around $4,520, with the 21-day SMA at $4,323 and the 100-day SMA near $4,379 reinforcing a broader demand band on dips. A deeper retracement would expose the 50-day SMA, now tracking close to $4,185, where buyers would be expected to defend the medium-term uptrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Additional insights into technicalsAnalysts at Societe Generale note that Gold “broke out of a small base formation earlier this month and has now reclaimed the 200-DMA, resulting in an extended rebound.” They argue that “a cross above this longer-term moving average denotes a resurgence of upward momentum,” and suggest that, from here, “the next potential hurdles could be located at $4,730/$4,770 before the April peak at $4,890.”
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Gold (XAU/USD) touched a fresh high since May 14, during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it struggled to capitalize on the move and failed to break the $4,700 mark. The initial downward push on US bond yields due to the Treasury Department's expanded buyback strategy turned out to be short-lived amid concerns over the growing US national debt, which crossed $40 trillion. This has revived what traders call the "debasement trade" and underpinned demand for bullion as an alternative store of value.
Yields on long-dated US Treasuries initially fell after the US Treasury Department announced last Wednesday that it would double buyback operations for long-dated government debt from September. The relief from that intervention has since fully unwound, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields climbing back above their pre-announcement levels. The US Dollar (USD), however, has not mirrored the reversal amid receding bets for an immediate policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Tamer July US inflation data shifted market expectations toward a policy hold at the upcoming September 15–16 FOMC meeting. This keeps a lid on the attempted US Dollar (USD) recovery from an over three-month low and turns out to be another factor supporting the non-yielding Gold. Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in around a 75% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid inflation risks stemming from volatile crude oil prices and escalating US-Iran tensions.
In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced Monday that the US is launching a campaign to isolate Iran from the global economy. Bessent also warned that any country conducting business with Iran risks facing US sanctions. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary, Mohsen Rezaei, had said that the Islamic Republic would halt all oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz and anywhere else in the Persian Gulf if economic war continues.
This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, lending some support to crude oil prices and the safe-haven Greenback. This, in turn, caps the upside for gold as traders now look forward to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Wednesday. Apart from this, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s keynote address at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday will be scrutinized for more interest rate cues, which will influence the USD and provide some meaningful impetus to the Gold price.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisThe recent breakout through a confluence hurdle near the $4,500 psychological mark – comprising a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June decline – favors XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive above the zero line, hinting that buying pressure is still dominant even as conditions look stretched.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in overbought territory near 71 and fails to assist the Gold price in building on intraday gains beyond the 50% retracement level. Nevertheless, momentum indicators remain constructive, suggesting that any corrective slide is more likely to be bought into and remain limited. Initial support is seen at the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% retracement confluence, ahead of $4,500, while a deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% Fibo. level around $4,294 as a more distant floor.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 50.0% retracement around $4,680.86, with additional hurdles at the 61.8% retracement near $4,853.70 and then the 78.6% level at about $5,099.77 ahead of the prior swing high around $5,413.22.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The shared currency registers minimal losses of 0.13% versus the US Dollar as EUR/USD fails to surpass 1.1700, exacerbating the drop towards the 1.1660 area, despite retaining its current neutral-to-upward bias.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe EUR/USD is poised to consolidate further, as price action has failed to extend the market structure of higher highs and higher lows. Momentum shifted bullish, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted overbought, an indication that bulls are in charge.
However, the path of least resistance for EUR/USD is for it to continue trading sideways.
For a bullish resumption, the first resistance for EUR/USD is 1.1700. A breach of the latter will expose the 1.1750 psychological level, followed by the May 6 high at 1.1795, ahead of 1.1800. On further strength, the next stop is the April 17 swing high of 1.1849.
On the downside, if EUR/USD dives below 1.1650, the next area of interest would become the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1631. Below this level lies the 1.1600 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.1574 and by 1.1500.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
EUR/USD daily chart Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.13%0.07%0.08%0.57%0.29%0.32%0.17%EUR-0.13%-0.03%-0.02%0.43%0.21%0.25%0.06%GBP-0.07%0.03%0.00%0.49%0.21%0.30%0.06%JPY-0.08%0.02%0.00%0.54%0.13%0.24%0.06%CAD-0.57%-0.43%-0.49%-0.54%-0.36%-0.19%-0.42%AUD-0.29%-0.21%-0.21%-0.13%0.36%0.08%-0.13%NZD-0.32%-0.25%-0.30%-0.24%0.19%-0.08%-0.23%CHF-0.17%-0.06%-0.06%-0.06%0.42%0.13%0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The GBP/JPY consolidates near familiar levels around 217.00 on Monday, as risk aversion dominates markets, with flows moving into haven assets like the US Dollar and Gold amid uncertainty over the Middle East conflict.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookPrice action remains horizontal, while momentum has shifted bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI): After bouncing at the 50-neutral level, the RSI aimed higher but stalled at the 60 reading over the last two days.
For a bullish continuation, the GBP/JPY must clear 217.00. Once surpassed, the next stop would be a downslope resistance trendline at around the 217.20-30 range, followed by the 218.00 mark and the July 30 high at 218.69. Above the next stop would be 219.00.
On the downside, the first support for GBP/JPY would be the 216.00 psychological level. Below the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.68, followed by 215.00. A decisive push by the bears, opens the door to challenge the 100-day SMA at 214.93.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.13%0.09%0.06%0.59%0.30%0.27%0.16%EUR-0.13%-0.01%-0.02%0.49%0.20%0.22%0.05%GBP-0.09%0.00%0.00%0.51%0.21%0.23%0.05%JPY-0.06%0.02%0.00%0.56%0.15%0.21%0.05%CAD-0.59%-0.49%-0.51%-0.56%-0.37%-0.24%-0.44%AUD-0.30%-0.20%-0.21%-0.15%0.37%0.03%-0.14%NZD-0.27%-0.22%-0.23%-0.21%0.24%-0.03%-0.19%CHF-0.16%-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%0.44%0.14%0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Billionaire investor Thomas Kaplan has issued an eye-popping gold price forecast of $50,000.
In an interview on Kitco News, Kaplan said, "Seeing gold go up another tenfold from here, to me, is not just likely, but inevitable."
"I can see gold going to 30, 40, 50,000 dollars without a problem."
Kaplan serves as the chairman and CIO of The Electrum Group, an advisory and asset management firm focusing on natural resources. The company has roughly $2.5 billion in assets under management.
Kaplan is also the largest private collector of Rembrandt’s art.
While making a bold price forecast, Kaplan didn’t put a timeline on the rally. However, he said we are in “what will be seen to be a very, very long wave in gold and silver, that we will see more highs in both.”
Kaplan wasn’t willing to speculate on the near-term, saying we may or may not have hit the bottom in the recent correction.
“Maybe it already is, maybe it needs to test again, I don't know.”
But he insisted it doesn’t matter.
“Because in the long term, even in the medium term, gold and silver are going to multiply from where they are."
Kaplan emphasized that his strategy involves holding things for the long term.
“People try to be too clever. And one of the reasons why I do hold things for so long is because, I just say to myself, I’m going to be patient. So long as they are still the best assets in their class, I’ll hold it forever, and I will not be distracted by noise.”
Kaplan pivoted into gold and silver in 2007 after selling his family’s energy company. At the time, gold was hovering around $550 to $600 per ounce.
“My view was that the place to protect my wealth, my family’s wealth, when we sold our energy company, which was our biggest asset and our biggest ‘killing,’ as it were, was gold and silver.”
Why gold and silver?
"I'd entered 2007 with a view that things were just simply too good, not dissimilar to the way things are right now in certain respects. And that there was just too much bullishness in asset classes."
At the time, Kaplan predicted gold would move from that $500 range to between $3,000 and $5,000. He said he thought it would hit $5,000 and then possibly fall back to $3,000 before recovering to $5,000 and climbing again.
Kaplan compared the recent correction to a “1987 moment” when the stock market crashed, before recovering to new highs. It was essentially a correction inside a bull market.
He pointed out that the 36 percent crash on Black Friday “really did seem like the world was falling in upon itself.”
“And yet when you look back over that chart, you can't see it. Certainly, a person of my vintage would need glasses to be able to perceive it. It's that minute."
Notably, the man who pivoted to gold and silver, effectively getting out of the markets right before the 2008 crash, thinks that today’s environment has a similar look.
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Gold and silver have pushed decisively higher, but veteran precious metals analyst David Morgan believes the bigger story goes far beyond the latest price move.
Speaking with Money Metals podcast host Mike Maharrey, Morgan, publisher of The Morgan Report, argued that investors are witnessing a growing contest between precious metals and the credit-based monetary system. With gold trading above $4,500 per ounce and silver approaching $69 at the time of the interview, Morgan said the market is increasingly signaling a loss of confidence in government debt and fiat currency.
Gold and Silver have broken outMorgan believes both metals have already broken through important technical levels.
For silver, he had previously argued that prices below $60 wouldn't last long. Once silver established itself above $60 and held that level, Morgan viewed it as a legitimate breakout rather than a temporary move.
Gold told a similar story. Morgan had been watching the $4,000 level, but with the metal reaching roughly $4,500, gold had moved more than 10 percent above that threshold in only a matter of weeks.
Morgan hasn't completely ruled out a sharp correction. A bond-market disruption, interest-rate shock, or other unexpected event could produce what he called a sudden "spike low."
However, the strength of the metals during August, traditionally a seasonally weak period, caused Morgan to revise his expectations. He no longer believes such a selloff would necessarily push gold back to $4,000 or silver below $60. He suggested a sudden drop might instead take gold from around $4,500 to roughly $4,200, while silver could potentially retreat toward $62.50.
Building wealth one coin at a timeMorgan cautioned investors against becoming obsessed with daily price fluctuations.
His preferred strategy remains dollar-cost averaging. Instead of attempting to perfectly time every rally and correction, investors can consistently accumulate physical metal and remove some of the emotion from the process.
Morgan described the approach simply as building wealth "a coin at a time."
The point isn't to get rich overnight. It's to preserve purchasing power and gradually accumulate wealth with money that required real work to earn. Morgan noted that plenty of people who become rich quickly ultimately lose their fortunes just as quickly.
A battle between Gold and government debtMaharrey pointed out that geopolitical headlines, including developments surrounding Iran, have produced short-term volatility in gold and silver. But underneath those daily moves, he argued, the fundamental forces supporting precious metals remain intact.
Morgan took that argument further.
He believes the world may be approaching a tipping point in a much larger battle over which assets deserve monetary trust.
For decades, U.S. Treasuries and other sovereign debt instruments have been treated as among the safest assets in the financial system. Morgan believes gold is increasingly challenging that assumption.
In his view, the choice is becoming one between gold and a promise to receive currency sometime in the future.
A $1,000 bond may eventually return its principal, but Morgan noted that there is no guarantee the dollars received five, 10, 20, or 30 years later will possess the same purchasing power. Gold, by contrast, carries no counterparty promise.
Morgan pointed to central-bank reserve holdings as evidence that this transition is already underway, arguing that gold has overtaken credit instruments as the leading reserve asset held by central banks.
Mining stocks could provide confirmationMorgan believes one important confirmation of this monetary shift could come from institutional investment in major precious metals mining companies.
He specifically pointed toward companies such as Newmont, Barrick, Wheaton Precious Metals, and Franco-Nevada.
If large institutions begin moving substantial amounts of capital into the major mining companies, Morgan said it could signal that sophisticated investors increasingly recognize the same shift toward precious metals.
After studying the silver market for more than four decades, Morgan acknowledged his natural bias toward precious metals. But he believes the market itself is increasingly providing evidence for his thesis.
Treasury buybacks and the $40 trillion debt problemThe conversation turned to the Treasury Department's decision to double its buybacks of longer-term government debt.
Maharrey characterized the move as an attempt to suppress troublesome long-term interest rates. Morgan largely agreed.
Morgan explained that Treasury auctions ordinarily allow investors to determine the yield required to compensate them for inflation and other risks. If investors aren't willing to buy a long-term bond at a given yield, yields rise until buyers emerge.
As yields rise, existing bond prices fall.
Morgan argued that government intervention through increased buybacks interferes with that price-discovery process. In his view, it amounts to an effort to control the yield curve rather than allowing the market to determine the true cost of borrowing.
The stakes are enormous.
Maharrey noted that the federal government is carrying roughly $40 trillion in debt and already faces annual interest expenses exceeding $1 trillion. Higher yields would make financing that debt increasingly expensive.
Could Silver reach $100?Turning specifically to silver, Maharrey asked Morgan whether $100 silver could become a reality before the end of the year.
Morgan said it was possible, but it isn't his base-case forecast.
He has generally expected silver to reach somewhere around $78 to $82. At the same time, Morgan warned that silver has a long history of surprising even experienced analysts.
The critical variable is monetary demand.
Industrial demand has grown dramatically over the past quarter-century, rising from approximately 35 percent of total silver demand to around 60 percent. But Morgan explained that industrial demand generally doesn't fluctuate enough from one year to the next to create explosive short-term price moves.
Investment and monetary demand can.
When industrial users and investors simultaneously compete for the same available 1,000-ounce silver bars, the market can move rapidly. Morgan believes that dynamic helped drive the dramatic silver moves seen during the latter months of the previous year and the first month of 2026.
Morgan expects silver to continue grinding higher through the remainder of the year, although sharp corrections could periodically shake investors out of the market.
He doesn't believe the ultimate highs are in.
Morgan expects new record highs in both gold and silver, but he sees the bigger move potentially unfolding in 2027 or 2028.
Solar manufacturers and other industrial users have an incentive to reduce silver consumption or replace it with cheaper metals such as copper. Morgan has been studying the issue and believes copper could reduce silver usage in solar panels, but he doesn't think it eliminates the need for silver entirely.
Durability could also become an issue.
If a cheaper copper-heavy solar panel lasted only five years compared with 25 years for a silver-intensive alternative, the apparent savings could disappear when measured across the product's full life cycle.
Even if technological improvements dramatically reduce solar-sector silver consumption, Morgan believes emerging technologies could absorb the difference.
He pointed to batteries, semiconductors, artificial intelligence infrastructure, electrical expansion, and robotics as potential sources of additional demand.
Could robots become a major source of silver demand?Robotics could eventually become an especially interesting source of silver consumption.
Morgan said his ongoing research suggests robots could contain roughly 20 to 30 grams of silver apiece.
Thirty grams is approximately one troy ounce.
That creates some striking theoretical numbers.
If global production someday reached 100 million robots annually and each contained roughly one ounce of silver, robotics alone could theoretically require approximately 100 million ounces of silver every year.
Morgan emphasized that he isn't predicting 100 million robots will necessarily be produced annually. The numbers remain speculative, and the industry isn't yet large enough to provide certainty.
The broader point is that robotics represents an emerging source of silver demand that barely exists today.
What's really behind Asian Silver premiums?Maharrey also asked Morgan about reports of unusually large silver premiums in Asia.
Morgan cautioned against interpreting the entire difference between Asian and Western prices as a true physical-metal premium.
Several additional costs can become embedded in the final Asian price.
Tariffs can add expenses. Currency fluctuations between the Chinese renminbi and U.S. dollar create hedging costs. Shipping physical silver across the world isn't free. Trust and other market considerations can add further expenses.
Once those factors are included, what appears to be a multi-dollar premium could actually consist of several different costs, with perhaps only around $1 representing the true premium on the metal itself.
That distinction matters because arbitrage isn't effortless. Shipping multiple 1,000-ounce silver bars across the ocean to capture a relatively small price difference may not make economic sense when silver itself can move dramatically while the metal is in transit.
What if the stock market doesn't crash?Morgan also offered a provocative reassessment of the U.S. stock market.
He has long considered American equities extremely overvalued and once viewed a major correction as virtually inevitable.
He still considers a correction the most likely outcome, but no longer sees it as inevitable.
Why?
Inflation can distort nominal asset prices.
Morgan pointed to countries such as Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Argentina, where stock markets can continue climbing in nominal currency terms even as the underlying currency depreciates faster than stocks appreciate.
In that environment, an investor's brokerage account can show a larger number while the investor simultaneously becomes poorer in real purchasing-power terms.
Morgan stressed that he does not expect the U.S. dollar to enter hyperinflation. But he pointed to a reported 9 percent monthly increase in beef prices as an example of the kinds of acute price pressures consumers can experience even without economy-wide hyperinflation.
Inflation can ultimately end in deflationMorgan then raised another idea that may seem counterintuitive.
"All inflations end in deflation," he argued.
The monetary system can continue inflating as confidence deteriorates, but Morgan believes some form of reset eventually becomes necessary.
He speculated that a future monetary structure could involve digital units, blockchain technology, or even a universal basic income. As a hypothetical example, he imagined a system providing people with 2,000 digital units per month.
But the number of currency units somebody possesses isn't the same thing as wealth.
The important question is what those units can actually buy.
Wealth is about choices, not digitsMorgan argued that living standards ultimately provide a better measurement of wealth than bank-account balances.
Real wealth means having choices.
Can you afford transportation? Housing? Food? Entertainment? Can you purchase the products you want when you want them?
A person can possess more nominal dollars while simultaneously experiencing a declining standard of living if goods become more expensive, scarcer, or unavailable.
Morgan pointed to food as an increasingly obvious example. If higher grocery costs force a middle-class household to sacrifice entertainment or other discretionary spending simply to maintain its diet, its real standard of living has fallen even if its nominal income has increased.
Maharrey expanded on the point by noting that inflation doesn't only manifest itself through consumer prices.
Monetary inflation can flow into stocks, real estate, and other assets, creating what appears to be greater wealth on paper. But if the amount of goods and services that wealth can command hasn't increased accordingly, much of that prosperity can be an illusion.
Ultimately, Maharrey argued, an economy isn't about paper units or digits in an account. It's about real goods and services.
Physical Gold and Silver as monetary insuranceMorgan closed the interview by returning to the fundamental reason he believes people should own precious metals.
Investors don't need to predict the exact date when the monetary system will change.
They need to be positioned before confidence changes.
Morgan believes that change in confidence is already occurring and accelerating.
His framework is straightforward. Gold provides monetary insurance. Silver provides monetary insurance combined with industrial leverage.
For investors interested in precious metals equities, Morgan believes carefully selected mining companies can provide additional opportunities. But equities also introduce additional risk.
That's why his preferred starting point remains physical metal.
"The least risk take is physical metal," Morgan said, describing it as the foundation of his approach to precious metals investing.
For Morgan, the surge in gold and silver isn't simply another commodity rally. It reflects a deeper question increasingly confronting investors, institutions, and central banks alike.
When confidence in promises to pay begins to erode, what constitutes real money?
Morgan believes the market is increasingly providing its answer.
On Wednesday, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (HKEX) reported record physical gold deliveries linked to its dollar-denominated gold futures contract. This underscores Hong Kong’s push to challenge Western dominance of the gold market.
The exchange physically delivered 145kg (319.67 pounds) of gold on Aug. 19. It was the highest single-day delivery since the futures contract was launched in 2018.
The previous delivery record was 63kg in December 2018.
HKEX also reported a surge of interest in its dollar-denominated gold contract.
This comes after HKEX revitalized the contract last month.
On July 6, the company implemented several policy changes to increase liquidity:
HKEX waived its normal $1-per-contract-per-side trading fee through June 30, 2027It established incentive programs for designated liquidity providersIt established incentives for active tradersAccording to HKEX, “As the USD Gold Futures Contract has been inactive for a period of time, the introduction of the incentive programs is intended to support initial liquidity and revitalize the contract.”
The move had an almost immediate impact. On the day the new policies went into effect, the August contract traded 4,286 contracts. Volume the day before was zero. In the following week, HKEX reported record volume and open interest during the revitalization.
According to the South China Morning Post, average daily trading volume reached 9,974 contracts between July 6 and August 19. Total trading value hit $1.35 billion.
The HKEX intentionally implemented rules for its dollar-denominated futures contract to encourage physical delivery of metal.
Ramifications of the surge in physical Gold deliveryThe revitalization of the dollar-denominated futures contract corresponds with a broader push to challenge Western control of the global gold market.
London, New York, and Switzerland have served as the center of the gold trade for nearly two centuries. However, with gold progressively flowing from West to East, China and other Asian hubs are developing the infrastructure to challenge Western dominance.
A day after the revitalized futures contract launched, Hong Kong began trial operations of its gold clearing and settlement system. The government-owned clearing system will reportedly “mirror” the financial infrastructure used by the LBMA in London.
According to Hong Kong Precious Metals Central Clearing Company CEO John Lee Ka-chiu, the company will offer “a comprehensive suite of services ranging from gold deposits and withdrawals to transaction settlements in the over-the-counter market in Hong Kong,” adding that a new gold price ticker – HAU – would be introduced to “ensure that Hong Kong gold prices are fully accessible to global market participants.”
The new gold clearing system also features a partnership with the Shanghai Gold Exchange. Lee said that “Delivery Connect” will “bridge the fiscal liquidity pools of both markets.”
Cooperation between the Hong Kong clearing company and the Shanghai Gold Exchange will reportedly include facilitation of physical gold delivery, warehousing, and further enhancing financial connectivity between the two markets. Through this partnership, gold stored in approved Hong Kong vaults can be transferred into the SGE system and vice versa. Once the metal is inside either system, it becomes eligible for settlement without having to be re-assayed or shipped through an entirely separate process.
Meanwhile, the clearing company introduced a new gold price ticker – HAU –to “ensure that Hong Kong gold prices are fully accessible to global market participants.”
In another move to elevate its status as a gold hub, Hong Kong officials plan to expand the region’s gold storage capacity from 200 to more than 2,000 tonnes over the next three years.
Looking at the bigger picture, it reveals a slow but steady migration of the gold trade from the West to the East.
In this context, it appears the revitalized futures contract is intended to connect gold futures trading to Hong Kong’s expanding physical gold market infrastructure.
According to HKEX, this connection will attract additional gold storage and delivery activity into Hong Kong, further establishing the Chinese special administrative region as an international bullion-trading center.
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The 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium arrives at a pivotal moment. The U.S economy faces record debt, elevated borrowing costs, a weaker dollar and renewed momentum across hard assets.
For The Gold & Silver Club, the backdrop increasingly validates its early-year call: “2026 will be the Year of Hard Assets.”
Across global markets, that thesis is broadening. Copper is trading near record territory. Tin has emerged as one of 2026’s standout metals. Oil remains structurally elevated and Agricultural Commodities are now at their highest level in a decade.
“This is no longer simply a Gold story,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “The common denominator is scarcity. Traders are beginning to price how policymakers may respond as multiple macro forces collide.”
That makes Jackson Hole one of the most consequential macro catalysts of 2026 and potentially the trigger for the hard-asset rally’s next major phase.
The symposium runs from August 27–29, with Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled to deliver his debut Jackson Hole keynote. U.S debt has crossed $40 trillion, long-dated Treasury yields have approached two-decade highs and inflation remains above target.
Federal debt has more than doubled since 2017. Interest payments have reached almost $1.2 trillion so far, this fiscal year, while the budget deficit is running above 6% of GDP. The 30-year Treasury yield recently touched 5.34% – it’s highest since 2007.
On August 19, the Treasury doubled liquidity-support buybacks for 10 to 30-year securities from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation.
“This is not quantitative easing,” says Hansen. “But markets rarely wait for policy labels. If borrowing costs keep rising while debt compounds, traders will question how long policymakers can tolerate restrictive conditions.”
Gold surged to $4,680 on Monday, while Silver traded around $68.70. Gold-backed ETFs attracted 46.7 tonnes – approximately $6.4 billion – in one week, their strongest inflow in ten months.
Gold has rebounded from below $4,000, while Silver has climbed from around $54 – roughly 29% from its recent low.
“The market is moving before policymakers do,” Hansen says. “That is often how the largest macro trades begin.”
The Fed faces a brutal policy equation. U.S nonfarm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July, while May and June employment was revised down by a combined 103,000. Yet inflation remains stubborn and three FOMC members dissented at July’s meeting in favour of a quarter-point rate increase.
Jackson Hole has history here. After Jerome Powell’s 2022 speech, the S&P 500 fell 3.4%, the Nasdaq dropped 3.9% and the Dow lost more than 1,000 points in a single session.
“Markets will dissect every sentence,” Hansen says. “If Warsh signals greater sensitivity to bond-market stress, Gold and Silver could react before the rest of the market has finished interpreting the speech.”
A decisive move through $4,700 Gold and $75 Silver would put $5,000 and $100 firmly back into focus.
“The greatest secular moves are rarely captured by traders waiting for perfect certainty,” Hansen says. “They are captured while the evidence is mounting and everyone else is still debating.”
If Jackson Hole convinces markets that America’s $40 trillion debt burden is restricting the Fed’s room for manoeuvre, the next hard-asset phase could unfold rapidly. Once Gold clears $4,700 and Silver breaks $75, hesitation could rapidly turn into capitulation buying as institutional capital, momentum traders and late-arriving investors chase the breakout.
By then, today’s prices may already be history. The opportunity rarely exists at maximum comfort – it exists while the evidence is building and the crowd is still hesitating.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
The EUR/JPY trades horizontally on Monday as market participants remain reluctant to push the cross higher amid fears of potential intervention by Japanese authorities, even though they have remained shut following the coordinated action by the US and Japan. The cross trades at 185.59, virtually unchanged.
After falling from around 187.44 towards 182.12 on the three-day intervention day, the EUR/JPY has bounced off the 182.00 area and rallied back near the 186.00 mark. Momentum has shifted modestly bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has been bullish since mid-August.
From a market structure perspective, EUR/JPY is neutrally biased, but it could resume bullish if it breaks above the year-high near 188.00. However, on its way north, the first resistance is at 187.00, followed by the psychological 187.50 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the yearly high of 187.95 ahead of 188.00.
Downwards, the first support for EUR/JPY is the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 185.14, followed by the 50-day SMA at 184.72. Once surpassed, the next stop is the 200-day SMA at 184.16, followed by 184.00.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
EUR/USD inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1670 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The pair finds support as rising oil prices, elevated bond yields, and escalating Middle East tensions drive Eurozone inflation concerns. These factors have boosted expectations for a more hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB), which is widely anticipated to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike in September following its June tightening.
Meanwhile, sovereign yields on longer-maturity Eurozone securities remain near multi-decade highs. They are tracking US yield movements driven by worries over Washington’s deficit spending and fears that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may be taking a complacent approach to persistent inflation.
Strategists at Scotiabank note that the flow of macro news has been relatively light, with "fundamental releases have been limited" ahead of what they describe as this week’s key event: "the German IFO business sentiment figures scheduled for Tuesday." They add that shifting rate dynamics are weighing modestly on the single currency, as "yield spreads have pulled back slightly, eroding some of the EUR’s support as US Treasury yields have climbed over the past week or so."
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure after the US Treasury decided to double its buyback operations for longer-dated bonds. Reports indicate that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could utilize nearly $1 trillion from the Treasury General Account to fund these operations. Tensions are also escalating geopolitically, as the US expands secondary sanctions against entities doing business with Iran. Secretary Bessent warned that a major financial institution could face sanctions this week, explicitly noting that China will not be exempt.
Looking ahead, market participants are focused on key US economic events scheduled for this week. Consumer confidence data will be released on Tuesday, followed by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Wednesday. Additionally, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to deliver a speech on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole symposium, which could offer further direction for the Greenback.
Strategists at Scotiabank highlight that the “calendar and event risk this week is significant,” noting that the combination of key data releases and policy signals is encouraging investors to reassess exposures. In their view, this backdrop creates “the potential for some moderate gains in the USD broadly in the short run” as market participants “pare back positioning,” with the Dollar benefiting from a more cautious stance ahead of the upcoming risk events.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
