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EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Remains below nine-day EMA near 185.50

Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data

Gold prices fell in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 8,881.94 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,944.38 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to PHP 103,599.20 per tola from PHP 104,325.50 per tola on Friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

8,881.94

10 Grams

88,821.34

Tola

103,599.20

Troy Ounce

276,266.40

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 534.14 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 537.72 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,230.14 per tola from SAR 6,271.86 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

534.14

10 Grams

5,341.43

Tola

6,230.14

Troy Ounce

16,613.72

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 571.63 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 576.75 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,667.26 per tola from MYR 6,727.07 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

571.63

10 Grams

5,716.19

Tola

6,667.26

Troy Ounce

17,779.67

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers following an intraday uptick to the $4,472 region and drops to a one-and-a-half-week low during the Asian session on Monday. Traders ramped up bets for an interest rate hike in reaction to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks on curbing inflationary pressures on Friday, which, in turn, continues to undermine the non-yielding bullion. However, modest US Dollar (USD) weakness helps the precious metal show some resilience below the $4,400 mark and trim a part of its intraday losses.

Speaking at the Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Warsh acknowledged that inflation is running hot and also hinted that interest rates could need to move higher if more progress isn’t made on easing price pressures. Traders were quick to react and are now pricing in around a 60% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September. Moreover, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 88% probability of a December increase, which lifted the USD to a two-week high on Friday and led to an over 3% fall in the Gold price.

The selling bias remains unabated at the start of a new week as escalating US-Iran tensions lift crude oil prices and fuel inflation fears, bolstering hawkish Fed expectations. US forces struck two rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday, the first American strikes on the Islamic Republic since late July, prompting Iran to retaliate by launching ballistic missiles at two US bases in Jordan. Moreover, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that new secondary sanctions were likely to be unveiled weekly in the effort to pressure Iran.

Despite the supportive fundamental backdrop, the safe-haven USD struggles to attract any follow-through buying amid soft US Treasury bond yields. This, in turn, holds back traders from placing fresh bearish bets on the Gold price and helps limit the downside. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of USD bulls, suggesting that any recovery in the XAU/USD pair is likely to be sold into. Traders now look to key US macro releases, scheduled for the start of a new month, including the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical AnalysisFriday's break below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, for the first time since early August, was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Moreover, the commodity is now trading below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the rally from late July lows, validating the near-term negative outlook. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains deeply negative, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits in oversold territory near 25, hinting at persistent downside pressure even if a short-lived corrective bounce cannot be ruled out.

Hence, a subsequent fall towards the next relevant support at the 50.0% retracement near $4,346.16, ahead of the 61.8% level at $4,263.27, looks like a distinct possibility. A break below the latter would expose deeper structural floors at $4,145.27 and $3,994.96. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,429.04, followed by the 100-period SMA around $4,475.07 and the 23.6% Fibo. level near $4,531.59, while the cycle high at $4,697.36 marks a more distant barrier for any sustained recovery.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 114.50 during the early European session on Monday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as Japan’s annual core Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in Tokyo rose for a third consecutive month in August, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) could raise interest rates as early as September.

Hotter inflation data came after BoJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino delivered hawkish remarks and highlighted growing inflation risks. Most market participants currently expect the Japanese central bank to raise its policy rate to 1.25% at its upcoming policy meeting. 

On the other hand, upbeat China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data could provide some support to the China-proxy Aussie as China is a major trading partner to Australia. 

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday showed that China’s Manufacturing PMI climbed to 49.8 in August from 49.2 in July. This figure came in stronger than the 49.7 expected. The NBS Non-Manufacturing PMI steadied at 49.0 in August, compared to July’s 49.0 figure.  

BoJ stance seen remaining hawkish as inflation dynamics evolveAnalysts at Societe Generale argue that the latest inflation dynamics, including the mix of softer non-fresh food prices and firmer services costs, “continue to support the BoJ’s hawkish path,” reinforcing expectations that the central bank will maintain its tightening bias despite temporary downward pressure from renewed energy subsidies.

Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY keeps a constructive tone above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. Price action is pressing into the upper half of the Bollinger envelope, with the upper band acting as immediate overhead supply, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index at 63.27 stays in positive territory, hinting at sustained buying pressure rather than outright overbought conditions.

On the downside, initial demand is seen at the August 26 low of 113.66. The next contention level is located at the 100-day SMA at 113.25, followed by the the Bollinger middle band at 113.00. 

On the topside, any follow-though buying above the August 26 high of 114.96 would open the door for the Bollinger upper band at 115.20. The next hurdle to watch is the 116.00 psychological level. 

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

Gold is extending Friday’s correction into early Monday, testing the lowest level in eight days near $4,400.

Gold cracks on hawkish Fed, Iran risksGold fades a temporary recovery seen in the last hours, as bears remain in control heading into the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) week, despite a broad US Dollar (USD) pullback from two-week highs.

The Greenback is pulling back on profit-taking after a steep rally on Friday. However, a deeper retracement looks elusive amid a revival in hawkish sentiment around a Federal Reserve (Fed) September interest rate hike and fresh US-Iran strikes.

US military forces struck two Iranian launchers on Iran's Larak Island on Sunday, marking the first known American strikes on Iran since late July. In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched ballistic missile strikes on two US bases in Jordan and within the country.

Renewed geopolitical tensions drove Oil prices higher and reignited inflation fears, supporting the case for a Fed rate hike next month, keeping the USD’s further downside in check and undermining non-yielding assets such as Gold.

On Friday, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh explicitly signalled for the first time that rate hikes may be needed to contain inflation. His words at the Jackson Hole Symposium were perceived as hawkish, prompting markets to ramp up bets for a September rate lift-off.

Warsh flags unfinished inflation work as financial conditions stay looseFed Chair Warsh delivered a notably more hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7.4/10, above the 6.5/10 historical average, underscoring heightened concern on price stability. The insistence that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to objective “or we have work to do,” combined with comments that financial conditions are not restrictive and credit markets show few signs of restraint, points to a bias toward further tightening or a prolonged restrictive stance despite better headline inflation prints. Warsh’s emphasis that this summer’s data do not yet signal a meaningful change in underlying trends, alongside a firm commitment to the 2% PCE target and a predominant focus on prices, reinforces a vigilant inflation-fighting posture that is supportive of the Dollar and broadly negative for risk-sensitive FX.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated level of 129.70, confirming that Fed communication remains firmly in hawkish territory relative to the neutral 100 benchmark.

Markets now see a 57% chance of such a move, up from 39% a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Looking ahead, it remains to be seen whether Gold extends its correction from over three-month highs of $4,697 or stages a solid comeback.

That said, Gold's next major trend depends on renewed US-Iran tensions and the upcoming US NFP data due later this week.

In the meantime, hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical risk premia could remain a drag on Gold, limiting the bright metal’s recovery attempts, if any.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,430.16. The metal retains a constructive near-term tone as spot holds above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,411.61 and the 100-day SMA at $4,370.32, while the longer-term 200-day SMA at $4,528.87 stands as the next bullish objective overhead. The 50-day SMA at $4,211.22 remains well below current price, reinforcing an overall supportive moving average structure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 hints at steady, rather than overstretched, upside momentum.

On the downside, immediate support is located around the current pivot zone near $4,430, followed by the 21-day SMA at $4,411.61 and the 100-day SMA at $4,370.32, which together form a dense demand band before the more distant 50-day SMA at $4,211.22. On the topside, initial resistance is provided by the 200-day SMA at $4,528.87, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the path for a continuation of the broader bullish phase in gold.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $66.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. The non-yielding Silver declined following hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh. Warsh said on Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium that policymakers will "have work to do" if they were not confident cost-of-living pressures were easing for Americans. “We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed,” said Warsh. “Otherwise, we have work to do,” he added.

Moreover, the Fed's next interest rate decision will be made on September 15-16. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing in nearly a 57.5% odds of at least 25 basis points (bps) next month, up from 35% before Fed Chair Warsh’s speech.

Silver also remained pressured by higher oil prices after Iran launched a coordinated barrage of ballistic and anti-ship cruise missiles across multiple locations, including Tehran, Lorestan, Karaj, Khorramabad, and Shiraz. The strikes, targeting positions toward the Strait of Hormuz, came in direct response to a vow by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to avenge a Sunday United States (US) strike on Iranian launchers at Larak Island.

The preceding US strike marked the first direct attack on Iranian military positions in over a month, explicitly targeting rocket sites prepared to lay mines in the strategic waterway. While American forces reported closely monitoring the Strait to ensure the uninterrupted flow of global trade, Washington's broader strategy had recently favored economic sanctions over direct military actions to compel Tehran back to the negotiating table.

However, TD Securities cited that the backdrop for precious metals has improved as investors reassessd the policy stance of the Fed and the outlook for the Dollar. Strategists note that, "beyond the Fed's willingness to look past an energy-driven inflation shock, the re-ignition of the dollar debasement theme has also fueled renewed macro discretionary appetite in precious metals," helping to draw fresh interest into the complex.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Precious metals markets have been rattled by investors' concerns over higher inflationary readings and the likelihood of Federal Reserve monetary tightening. Yet, over the past month, gold prices have climbed from around $4,000 per ounce to nearly $4,700 in the latter half of August. Most analysts attribute this surge to the U.S. debt reaching the $40 trillion mark, but the bond market has also played a significant role in this price recovery.

The Federal Reserve Here are a few quotes from the Fed: "The Fed's price-stability objective of 2 percent, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, is a firm, fixed target. Let's be equally clear about another aspect of the objective: Price stability is not self-executing, nor is inflation necessarily mean-reverting. It is the Fed's job to deliver stable prices." Additionally, in an interview at Jackson Hole, Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Beth Hammack stated: "I don't want to prejudge anything. But I believe now is the time to act." She also added, "I believe that we've been in an inflationary situation for more than five years. It's been running well above our target. I don't see any restriction in policy when I look at financial conditions and when I talk to market participants." In other words, the Federal Reserve's primary focus is currently on inflation. Thus, it appears clear that the Fed's stance is hawkish, and it is likely to tighten monetary policies soon and decisively. The Fed's position will only shift if the U.S. economy encounters serious hardships.

However, the unemployment rate - another key economic indicator - is not low enough to signal robust economic growth.

The US unemployment rate

Source: Trading EconomicsThe U.S. unemployment rate remains substantially above the low reached in 2023, currently hovering above 4%.

Moreover, consumer spending is not expanding either, as evidenced by the retail sales data presented below; in fact, retail sales contracted in July of this year.

Retail sales

Source: Trading EconomicsAlso, both manufacturing and non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indices (PMIs) indicate very modest economic growth.

Manufacturing PMI reported by the ISM

Source: Trading EconomicsServices PMI reported by the ISM

Source: Trading EconomicsShould monetary conditions tighten further, the growth rate is likely to decelerate or even turn negative.

If the Fed tightens too aggressively, the U.S. economy is likely to slip into a recession. Moreover, higher interest rates would make servicing the U.S. debt considerably more expensive, especially given that the national debt has reached the $40 trillion threshold.

Even though the monetary environment may seem contractionary, the U.S. government has recently reported an exceedingly high debt level. It is well known that high government debt leads to currency debasement due to the expanding money supply. At the same time, such a hefty government debt is costly to service. Therefore, if the Fed raises interest rates, interest expenses will escalate further, boosting government expenditures and widening budget deficits. To manage the debt, the Fed would likely have to print more dollars to buy back Treasuries, which would also push down government bond yields - a necessity given the current debt predicament. This is exactly what is unfolding in the U.S. bond market right now.

The bond market Additionally, as I have discussed in previous articles, demand for U.S. debt is declining rapidly. Recently, Japan sold off some of its U.S. Treasury holdings to support the yen. Consequently, bond yields are rising, which increases interest expenses - a problematic trend given the U.S. national debt's $40 trillion milestone. This is why Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the Treasury would buy U.S. bonds to curb rising yields. This approach closely resembles a quantitative easing (QE) program, which is currently taking place despite the Fed's hawkish rhetoric.

What does this mean for Gold? Despite the Fed's hawkish stance and its potential negative impact on precious metals prices, the U.S. debt is surging while Treasuries lose their appeal. This situation makes a quantitative easing program necessary to keep debt servicing manageable. Quantitative easing entails money printing, which exacerbates currency devaluation and makes precious metals more attractive to investors - a trend that is likely emerging now. Therefore, even if the Fed raises interest rates, gold prices are still likely to rise as long as the Fed buys back Treasuries.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers to near $4,445 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal edges lower on a surprisingly hawkish speech by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole economic symposium. 

The Fed Chairman warned on Friday that inflation is not slowing significantly and that unless policymakers become confident it is, the central bank has “work to do.” Traders raise their bets on a September rate hike following Warsh’s speech, marking the closest he has come to acknowledging interest rate hikes ‌may be needed to ease price pressures.

Markets now ‌see a 56.9% probability of a US rate hike in September, compared to 39.9% before Warsh’s comments, and an 88.7% odds of a December increase, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.

“Gold is getting slapped hard as Chair Warsh affirms that inflation isn’t meaningfully slowing and the Fed has ‘work to do.’ While it ‌may once again be ‘speak loudly and carry a short stick,' this will make the market price the September meeting as a coin flip,” independent analyst Tai Wong said.

Meanwhile, ongoing tensions in the Middle East could raise oil-driven inflation concerns, weighing on the yellow metal. Bloomberg reported on Sunday that the US military struck Iranian rocket launchers that were preparing to send mines into the Strait of Hormuz, following weeks of relative calm. The attack by the US was the first military action against Iran in more than a month, as US President Donald Trump has switched to a campaign to squeeze Tehran’s economy.

Gold sentiment seen resilient even if Fed tone turns more hawkishAccording to TD Securities, a shift in tone from Fed Chair Warsh could test the recent optimism in precious metals, but is unlikely to fully derail it. The bank argues that “a more hawkish tone from Fed Chair Warsh would be a catalyst for some reversal in the yellow metal,” yet stresses that “the bar is likely high to reverse the improved sentiment in precious metals,” with positioning and underlying narratives still broadly supportive.

Warsh flags unfinished inflation work as financial conditions stay looseFed Chair Warsh delivered a notably more hawkish-leaning message, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 7.4 versus a 6.5 historical average, underscoring that the Fed must be confident underlying inflation is moving to target or “we have work to do.” Warsh highlighted healthy consumer spending, stable labor markets, and rapid business investment alongside “hard-pressed” characterizations of financial conditions as restrictive, while stressing that better summer inflation prints do not yet signal a meaningful shift in underlying trends and that the predominant focus must remain on prices. The emphasis on a firm 2% PCE target, durable-yet-fragile inflation expectations, and limited signs of policy restraint in credit and loan markets reinforces a bias toward keeping policy tight for longer, a backdrop typically supportive of the Dollar against lower-yielding peers.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged on the day, moving 0.00 points to hold at a still-elevated 129.70, firmly in hawkish territory despite the lack of incremental shift. The combination of a stable but high index reading and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score signals that Fed communication continues to lean hawkish overall, maintaining support for the Dollar while keeping markets sensitive to incoming inflation data and expectations.

Technical Analysis: Gold price is well-supported above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above both the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, suggesting a well-supported uptrend despite the recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54 keeps momentum in mildly positive territory, hinting that buyers still have the upper hand but without overbought conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 20-day Bollinger upper band near $4,725, where a sustained break would open the way to fresh record highs. On the downside, initial support is seen around the current area and the Bollinger middle band at $4,430, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,370; a deeper pullback could extend toward the Bollinger lower band at $4,135, where buyers would be expected to reappear.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The weak jobs report and a drop in core inflation would favor a hold. But it would likely delay tightening rather than end the cycle. After the speech by Warsh, there is possibility of at least a quarter-point increase by December.

Fed Rate Hike Outlook Supports the US Dollar Rising Treasury Yields Push the US Dollar Index Toward 100 Short term yield differentials are supporting the U.S. dollar as expectations of higher rates increase. The two-year Treasury yield rose following Warsh’s comments as this maturity is highly sensitive to Fed expectations. The U.S. dollar index also rose about 0.55% to 99.68. Strong capital inflows may be driven by higher expected returns on dollar assets and reduced incentives to buy lower-yielding currencies. The move in the two-year yield is therefore a cleaner signal for the dollar than a rise in long term yields.

The dollar still requires some support from the incoming data. The strong jobs report in August and sticky CPI inflation would increase the probability of a September hike and potentially push the US dollar index above the 100 handle. A weak payroll report would reduce the odds and could pull the index back toward the 98 area. The part of the hawkish Fed outlook is already reflected in the short term yields so the US dollar needs confirmation rather than another speech alone.

US Dollar Index Forecast Eyes 100.50 and 101.80 The monthly chart for the US dollar index shows that the index dropped toward the 98.50 support in August and rebounded strongly after the Jackson Hole meeting to close above the 10-month SMA. The 98.50 level was defined by the support of the ascending channel pattern that stretches from the April 2011 lows.

By

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Updated: Aug 29, 2026, 09:05 GMT+00:00

$66.3550

-4.04%

Key Points:Spot silver dropped 4.17% after Fed Chair Warsh revived September rate-hike risk and sent yields and the dollar higher.Silver lost more than gold Friday, showing that industrial-demand concerns added to the pressure from the rate trade.Fed funds futures raised September hike odds from 35.4% to 57.5%, changing the near-term silver outlook.

Silver

-4.04%

Silver ForecastGold

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Gold ForecastSilver Took a Harder Hit Than Gold and the Industrial Side Made It Worse Spot silver dropped more than 4% Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told Jackson Hole the Fed is not done. The metal fell from $65.29 at the opening to $62.27 by late afternoon. Gold lost 3% on the same speech. Silver losing more than 4% tells you something beyond the rate trade is working against it.

The 50-day moving average is still a long way below and the 200-day is now overhead resistance.

On Friday, Spot Silver (XAGUSD) settled at $62.49, down $2.72 or 4.17%.

Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver finished sharply lower on Friday after giving up early gains. Shortly after the opening, the market surged to $71.18, its highest level since June 17. The rally fell short of an intermediate 50% level at $72.08 and the elusive 200-day moving average at $72.37. Both levels are resistance.

The main range is $54.78 to $71.18. Its 50% level at $62.98 is the primary downside target. This is followed by a short-term main bottom at $62.56 and the 50-day moving average.

50% of the all-time high is $60.835. It is a major long-term support level.

The main trend is up, but momentum shifted to the downside on Friday with the formation of a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. This chart pattern typically leads to a 2 to 3 day correction.

The 2-Year Yield Jumped and the Dollar Followed Warsh Higher Daily US Government Bonds 2-Year Yield Warsh said the Fed will have work to do if policymakers are not confident underlying inflation is returning to target. He said financial conditions do not appear restrictive. No forward guidance. No list of triggers before September 16.

The 2-year yield surged more than 10 basis points to 4.35%, its highest since late July. The dollar index rose 0.56% to 99.688 and hit its best level since August 19, reclaiming the 200-day moving average at 99.160. Fed funds futures repriced September hike odds from 35.4% to 57.5% inside one session.

Silver was already struggling to hold above $64 before the speech. The yield move pushed the dollar through resistance and silver went with it. The metal dropped $3 from the session high to the session low in a few hours. The speed of the move says the long side was not positioned for Warsh to come in that hard.

Silver’s Industrial Exposure Compounds What the Rate Trade Started Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Gold lost 3% on the same session. Silver lost more than 4%. The difference is industrial demand. Silver goes into solar panels, electronics, automotive components and industrial applications. Higher rates slow business spending. A hawkish Fed chair making September live again is not just a currency trade for silver. It reaches the manufacturing and construction side of demand at the same time.

The weekly loss for silver was 3.78%. Gold lost 1.58%. That spread widened Friday after narrowing earlier in the week when both metals rallied on the Treasury buyback announcement. The buyback trade lifted silver and gold together. The Warsh trade hit silver harder. The metal that rallied on financial demand gave back less. The metal that needs both financial and industrial demand gave back more.

India’s gold discounts widened this week as physical demand softened on speculation about an import duty rollback. Silver follows gold into the physical market in Asia. Weaker regional demand arriving on the same Friday as a hawkish Fed speech and a surging dollar removed support from underneath both metals at the same time.

What to Watch Silver enters the weekend with the worst weekly loss since mid-July and the rate trade working against both sides of its demand. The 2-year yield at 4.35% and September hike odds at 57.5% are the numbers that matter heading into the September 16 meeting. Employment and inflation data before that date carry more weight now than they did before Warsh spoke. The Treasury buyback rally gave silver a bid last week. Warsh took it back and added the industrial demand question on top of it.

Silver broke through its retracement zone at $63.96 to $62.87 on the session and found some support near the lower boundary. The 50-day moving average at $61.18 and the long-term 50% level at $60.835 are the next targets if selling continues. The 200-day moving average at $71.51 is now overhead resistance. The gap between the current price and the 200-day tells you how much ground buyers lost this week.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.

Latest news and analysis

USD/CAD has snapped a four-week losing streak, rebounding more than 1% from the August low after the recent decline stalled just above the yearly open. The broader yearly uptrend remains viable, but buyers still need to clear key resistance to strengthen the case that a more durable low is in place.

The Silver price has fallen back to $66 after Warsh revived Fed hike bets, but UBS still sees XAG/USD reaching $80 by September 2027. The Silver price in US Dollars (XAG/USD) closed Friday at $66.42 after a 3.98% daily fall, giving back part of an August rally which had taken the metal above $71.

Silver nevertheless finished August more than 15% above its opening level.

UBS’s latest forecast path points to a recovery after the setback, with $70 in December 2026, $75 in March and June 2027, and $80 by September 2027.

That is a notable extension of the bank’s earlier silver profile.

UBS strategists Wayne Gordon and Dominic Schnider had previously warned that high prices were cutting photovoltaic, silverware and jewellery consumption, estimating those channels would reduce demand by around 50 million ounces.

“Consistent with the smaller deficit, we have trimmed our price outlook across all forecast horizons,” they said at the time.

“In our base case, we expect silver to trade broadly sideways.”

Even then, UBS stressed that gold provided “an important anchor for silver”, limiting the downside from softer industrial and investment demand.

The latest forecast now extends that constructive path further out, with $80 restored as the September 2027 destination.

Image: Silver price in US Dollars - one-month performance chart Friday’s price action showed why the journey is unlikely to be smooth.

Silver had reached $71.03 during August before Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message lifted yields and triggered a simultaneous unwind in both gold and silver. Silver fell around 3.5% in the immediate market reaction.

That leaves spot roughly 20% below UBS’s $80 forecast.

The bank’s earlier technical work was already pointing towards a high-$70s/$80 zone, with our latest UBS silver coverage highlighting $75.93 and $80.22 as upside markers.

The fresh global forecast makes the distinction clearer: $80 is no longer merely a technical extension.

UBS now has it in the formal September 2027 forecast path.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Goldman now expects an RBA hike to 4.60% in November after a broad July inflation surprise, adding fresh rate support to the Australian Dollar. The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate ended Friday at 0.7163, still 1.7% higher in August despite losing 0.45% after Warsh's Jackson Hole speech.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.889531 (-0.01%)

Euro to Australian Dollar (EUR/AUD): 1.617018 (-0.15%)

Goldman Sachs has made a more important change underneath that price action.

“Australia's headline CPI increased 1.0%mom in July, with year-over-year growth easing 30bp to 3.5%yoy – above our and market expectations,” economists Andrew Boak, Will Maher and Oscar To said.

Underlying inflation was stronger as well.

“The ABS monthly trimmed mean measure increased by 0.5%mom in July,” while annual trimmed-mean inflation remained at 3.6%, “also above expectations”.

More troubling for the Reserve Bank was the breadth.

“Price pressures also broadened in July: market services inflation accelerated, and consumer durables… rose by more than we expected.”

Goldman consequently raised its third-quarter trimmed-mean forecast to 0.93% quarter-on-quarter and concluded that the surprise “takes further tightening from ‘quite possible’ to most probable”.

The policy call changed with it.

“We now expect the RBA to hike 25bp in November to 4.60%,” Goldman said, while stressing “a material risk of an earlier RBA rate hike in September.”

Reuters data show the inflation release initially drove AUD/USD to a 12-week high around 0.7183 and lifted the market-implied probability of a September move to 38% from 17%.

Friday's Dollar surge subsequently knocked AUD/USD lower, but it does not alter Goldman's domestic argument.

The next decisive releases are Australia's labour-market report and August CPI.

A second broad inflation surprise would make November increasingly difficult for the RBA to avoid and could revive the Australian Dollar's yield advantage.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

The Euro-Dollar has dropped to 1.158 after Warsh revived Fed hike bets, but Rabobank still sees choppy trade giving way to 1.18 into spring. The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate ended Friday at 1.1582 after Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech triggered the Dollar’s strongest daily advance in more than two months.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.158209 (-0.61%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3534 (-0.46%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 160.10118 (+0.50%)

The pair had spent most of the previous 48 hours between 1.1640 and 1.1660 before collapsing through 1.1600, leaving Friday’s close close to the bottom of the session range.

Rabobank still expects the broader picture to remain frustratingly two-sided rather than turn into a clean Dollar rally.

“We see scope for further choppy range trading in EUR/USD in the coming months with an upside bias likely lifting the currency pair to the 1.18 area into the spring.”

That forecast looks more interesting after Friday.

Warsh pushed the market-implied probability of a September Fed hike from around 35% to 57.5%, while EUR/USD fell roughly 0.6% to 1.1582.

Image: EUR to USD 48h chart Friday’s break lower interrupted what had been a surprisingly resilient August for the Euro, but Rabobank does not think the pair will be driven primarily by European developments from here.

“In view of the imbalance of uncertainties, we expect that price action in EUR/USD in the coming weeks will continue to be dominated by news pertaining to the USD rather than the EUR.”

The “Bessent Put” Complicates the Dollar Story Rabobank’s argument centres on an increasingly awkward relationship between the US Treasury and the Fed.

“Since the announcement last week that the US Treasury would at least double the size of its bond buyback operations, the market has been discussing the potential for a ‘Bessent put’ and how willing the US Treasury Secretary may be to stem a rise in long-term interest rates.”

The bank sees an obvious political incentive ahead of November’s mid-term elections, but also a cost.

“The market’s ability to signal concerns over fiscal policy, inflation and reflect a true balance between supply and demand could be dampened.”

“This has raised questions over the Treasury’s credibility, which have re-opened the debate about USD debasement.”

Lower long-term yields could also keep financial conditions looser than they otherwise would be, potentially leaving inflation higher for longer and increasing the prospect of tension between Treasury policy and the Fed.

That tension was visible even before Warsh spoke, with Reuters highlighting the contrast between Treasury efforts to push long yields down and the Fed Chair’s emphasis on maintaining inflation discipline.

Rabobank Trusts the ECB More Than the Fed The Eurozone hardly has an easy inflation outlook either.

Rabobank notes that headline inflation reached 3.2% earlier this year as the Iran-war energy shock fed into consumer prices, with the duration of the conflict still critical for the outlook.

Yet the bank sees one important difference.

“The market has a strong belief in the ECB’s inflation fighting credentials. The Fed’s credibility, by contrast, is still up for debate.”

Eurozone inflation expectations have remained relatively contained, while Rabobank expects another ECB hike in September after June’s increase.

The economy has also held up better than feared.

“Stronger than expected Eurozone Q2 GDP growth data and a decent round of August PMI numbers reflect an economy which has been resilient in the face of this year’s energy price shock.”

That resilience has not translated into aggressive Euro buying.

“The market has been reluctant to build long EUR positions against the backdrop of the Iran war in view of the Eurozone’s energy importer status and the headwinds to growth and inflation that this status implies.”

Hence Rabobank’s near-term conclusion is deliberately restrained.

“In the absence of an end to the war, we expect the EUR’s upside potential to remain contained and favour choppy range trading for EUR/USD around the 1.16 to 1.17 area in the months ahead.”

That 1.16 floor is already being tested after Warsh.

We noted in our previous Rabobank EUR/USD forecast that the bank had brought forward its 1.18 target as US debt-market concerns intensified.

Friday has not removed that forecast, but it has made the path rather less comfortable.

If Fed hike pricing continues to build, EUR/USD can spend more time below Rabobank’s preferred 1.16-1.17 zone.

If Treasury intervention again pulls long yields lower while confidence in US policy comes under pressure, the Dollar side of the equation could reverse quickly.

For Rabobank, that tug of war is the forecast: messy around 1.16-1.17 first, then a gradual move towards 1.18 into spring.

Euro Prices: This Week  USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.82%+0.82%+0.70%+0.99%+0.12%+1.13%+1.01%EUR-0.81% 0.00%-0.11%+0.17%-0.69%+0.31%+0.19%GBP-0.81%0.00% -0.11%+0.17%-0.69%+0.32%+0.19%JPY-0.70%+0.11%+0.11% +0.29%-0.58%+0.43%+0.30%CAD-0.98%-0.17%-0.17%-0.29% -0.86%+0.14%+0.02%AUD-0.12%+0.70%+0.69%+0.58%+0.87% +1.01%+0.88%NZD-1.12%-0.31%-0.31%-0.43%-0.14%-1.00% -0.13%CHF-1.00%-0.19%-0.19%-0.30%-0.02%-0.88%+0.13%  The FX heat map compares how Euro (EUR) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the US Dollar, where Euro recorded its sharpest decline. Data comparing prices today (29/08/2026 18:21 UTC) and daily close on 22/08/2026.

To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.

We continue to get a little bit of noisy economic data, but at the same time, we have to worry about the Middle East and energy inflation, so this will be an interesting one. Nonetheless, gold looks good, and I do like gold long term, but that doesn’t mean that it has to take off here.

Technical Levels and Policy Inflection To me, from a technical analysis standpoint, a clearance of the $4,800 level would be crucial to really get the upside going. We’ve recently had the so-called golden cross with the 50-day EMA breaking above the 200-day EMA, so that’s a good sign as well.

But a pullback to the $4,500 level is a very real possibility as well, especially if Warsh sounds more hawkish than people anticipate. We are at a major point of inflection, so this is a market worth watching late today.

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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

After rising nearly 14% in a three-week rally and reaching its highest level since mid-May near $4,700, Gold (XAU/USD) corrected lower to end the week in negative territory. August employment data from the United States (US) could trigger a directional move next week, while the technical picture highlights that the bullish stance persists in the near term.

Gold loses its bullish momentum as US Dollar stabilizesGold started the week on a firm footing and gained about 1% on Monday as the US’ “economic D-Day” on Iran underwhelmed, helping geopolitical tensions ease. The US Treasury Department announced new sanctions on 60 individuals, entities and vessels as part of its expanded effort to put economic pressure on Iran, but stopped short of imposing hefty penalties. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that if other countries do not sever business ties with Iran, they are under the risk of being forced out of the Dollar-based financial system. Bessent, however, declined to say which specific countries would be targeted or what type of penalties would be imposed. 

The precious metal continued to climb higher but lost its traction on Tuesday after coming in within a touching distance of $4,700. While the overall market conditions remained mostly unchanged, the USD stabilized ahead of key data releases and limited XAU/USD’s upside.

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Wednesday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred gauge of inflation, rose by 3.7% and 3.3%, respectively, on a yearly basis in July, with both readings matching June’s increase. 

The lack of progress in PCE inflation in July helped the USD stay resilient against its peers midweek. In turn, Gold corrected lower and lost more than 1% on the day. Other data from the US showed that Durable Goods Orders rose by 1.1% in July, compared to the market expectation of 0.7%, while Personal Income expanded by 0.4%.

Strategists at Deutsche Bank note that these latest US economic releases amounted to “a solid slate of data that’s hard to square with a view that Fed policy is restrictive.” They note that, although “pricing of a September Fed hike was pretty stable (up from 36% to 37%), there was greater repricing of Fed expectations further out with 42bps of hikes now being priced by next June (+3.7bps on the day).” 

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, one of the dissenters who favored a hike at the last Fed’s meeting, delivered a hawkish message on Thursday, with an 8/10 FXS Speechtracker score. The emphasis that the “most recent inflation number was as expected” but that “now is time to act given persistence of inflation,” alongside the view that current policy is not providing restriction and that the neutral rate is on the higher side, underscored a push for tighter policy to re-anchor expectations. Repeated worries about an emerging “inflationary mindset,” public confidence in a return to 2%, and cost-of-living concerns signalled a readiness to endorse further rate hikes or at least resist cuts, a configuration typically supportive of the US Dollar.

Ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ preliminary benchmark revision to Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, Gold remained indecisive and closed virtually unchanged above $4,600 on Thursday.

Fed Chair Warsh delivered a distinctly hawkish-leaning message at the Jackson Hole on Friday, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 7.4/10, compared to the 6.5/10 historical average and underscoring a stronger-than-usual emphasis on the inflation mandate. 

The insistence that the Fed must be “confident underlying inflation is moving to objective, or “we have work to do,” alongside comments that it is “hard-pressed” to call financial conditions restrictive and that recent disinflation has not “meaningfully changed” underlying trends, pointed to a bias against rapid easing even as growth, consumer spending, and business investment remain solid. 

Overall, the tone reinforced a firm 2% PCE target and highlighted that resilient activity and loose credit conditions could keep the Fed cautious about cutting rates too soon. Gold turned south on Fed Chair Warsh’s comments and dropped to a fresh weekly low near $4,550.

Gold investors await critical US employment dataThe US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for August on Tuesday. In case the headline PMI reading stays in the expansion territory above 50, and the input inflation component of the survey, the Prices Paid Index, comes in above July’s reading of 71.1, the USD could stay resilient against its rivals and cap XAU/USD’s upside. The ISM Services PMI report on Thursday could trigger a similar market reaction. Still, investors are likely to refrain from taking large positions ahead of Friday’s August employment report and limit the impact of PMI data on the yellow metal’s performance.

In July, Nonfarm Payrolls unexpectedly declined by 23K and missed the market expectation of 80K by a wide margin. As a result, investors scaled back bets for a Fed interest rate increase in September. However, the underlying details of the July employment report suggested that the labor market conditions were not as dire as it seemed initially because a majority of job losses were concentrated in government positions, especially in education due to seasonal variations in academic contracts and summer staffing shifts, and leisure and hospitality sector, which reflected the loss of jobs with the FIFA World Cup coming to an end.

A noticeable rebound in August, with an NFP print above 60K, could lead investors to second-guess a Fed policy hold in September and provide a boost to the USD heading into the weekend, causing XAU/USD to come under bearish pressure. Conversely, another disappointing NFP reading below 30K could point to a steady deterioration in labor market conditions. In this scenario, market participants could start pricing in a steady Fed policy for longer and open the door for a leg higher in XAU/USD. 

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are still pricing in about a 80% probability that the Fed will raise the policy rate by at least 25 basis points (bps) by the end of 2026.

Source: CME GroupMeanwhile, investors will continue to keep a close eye on the situation in the Middle East. Iran and Oman have reportedly reached an agreement to establish a temporary shipping lane in the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Iran insists that the US must lift its naval blockade and return to its commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding before the waterway is fully opened. At the same time, mediators Qatar and Pakistan continue to ramp up their efforts to convince the US and Iran to find a diplomatic solution. In case Crude Oil prices decline sharply in the short term with sides agreeing to engage in direct negotiations, Gold is likely to gather bullish momentum.

Rabobank’s Bas van Geffen argues that Tehran’s current strategy may prove self-defeating over time. He notes that “Iran using this leverage now, may hurt the country in the future,” as the threat of closing the Strait of Hormuz is already “forcing exporting neighbours and importing countries around the globe to rethink their supply lines.” As these alternatives are developed, Rabobank expects that “Iran’s ability to take the global economy hostage will wane.” 

FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Latest decline appears as a technical correctionGold turned south after approaching $4,700 midweek. With this decline, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreated below 70 but managed to hold above 60, pointing to a technical correction rather than a bearish reversal. Additionally, XAU/USD continues to hold slightly above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), reaffirming the bullish stance.

On the upside, $4,675-$4,700 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the March-August downtrend, round level) aligns as the initial resistance area ahead of $4,850 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and $5,000 (psychological level). 

Looking south, a strong support region could be spotted at $4,530-$4,500, where the 200-day SMA and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement align. If Gold drops below this area and fails to reclaim it, technical sellers could take action. In this case, $4,400-$4,375 (static level, 100-day SMA) and $4,300-$4,295 (static level, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) could be seen as next support zones.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

EURCHF: ⬇️ Sell

– EURCHF reversed from resistance zone

– Likely to fall to support level 0.9300

EURCHF currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the pivotal resistance level 0.9400 (which has been reversing the price from September of 2025), 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downtrend from March of 2025and the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave c of the ABC correction 2 from March.

EURCHF currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 0.9300 – low of the previous correction iv.

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Silver (XAG/USD) price made a U-turn after reaching a two-month high of $71.12 on Friday, then dove below the $69.00 figure as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh leaned hawkish in his Jackson Hole speech, pushing US Treasury yields higher. Consequently, the white metal edged lower, with XAG/USD trading at $66.76, down 3.60%, at the time of writing.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookFrom a price action standpoint, Silver's false breakout above the $70.00 level could open the door to a deeper-than-expected pullback, even though XAG is short-term upward biased.

 Momentum, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), favors further upside as buyers are in control. However, over the last two days, the RSI dipped, indicating that bulls are not out of the woods.

For a bullish resumption, Silver must clear $70.00. A breach of the latter will expose the high of the day at $71.12, followed by the $72.00 milestone. Above sits the 200-day SMA at $72.48.

On the other hand, the path of least resistance in the near term is a break below $66.00, which could prompt a test of $65.00, followed by the 50-day SMA at $61.44. Once hurdled, the $60.00 psychological level is below.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

EUR/USD is extending its pullback after the recent recovery stalled at a major resistance zone. The decline accelerated today on the heels of Fed Chair Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole World Economic Symposium with Euro now poised to mark the largest single-day loss since June.