Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The Pound Sterling advances during the North American session, up a modest 0.09%, as the Greenback edges lower despite last Friday’s hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Warsh, ahead of a packed week of economic data from the United States (US). The GBP/USD trades at 1.3549. Read More...

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Finds ground slightly below 20-day EMAThe British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3545 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair rebounds as the US Dollar corrects after a strong upside move on Friday. Read More...

British Pound holds losses amid geopolitical tensions, Fed tightening hopesThe British Pound (GBP) edges up on Monday but remains close to two-week lows against the US Dollar (USD). Risk aversion amid fresh hostilities between the US and Iran and rising bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might finally hike rates in September are keeping the Greenback's dips subdued at the start of the week. Read More...

AUDJPY: ⬇️ Sell

– AUDJPY reversed from resistance zone

– Likely to fall to support level 113.45

AUDJPY currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone between the long-term resistance level 115.00 (which has been reversing the price from April) the upper daily Bollinger Band.

The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous intermediate impulse wave (3).

Given the strength of the resistance level 115.00 and the overbought daily Stochastic, AUDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 113.45.

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In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by Bill Holter to examine whether Trump's repost of Jim Rickards' $10,000 gold call signals something far bigger than a market comment, and what it means for gold and the dollar system.

The two precious metals experts examine why credit markets are beginning to crack, and why Bill believes any gold price target being discussed today will ultimately prove laughably low — including the ones that sound outrageous right now.

Timestamps:

00:00 - Start.

01:29 - Is Bessant's yield push a policy error - or a gold revaluation trigger?

05:12 - Why Trump reposting Jim Rickards' $10,000 gold call is no coincidence.

09:07 - How a weekend gold revaluation would wipe out rehypothecation overnight.

14:08 - AI cannot be built without silver - and the silver simply does not exist.

19:24 - How Hong Kong's exchange made the yuan directly convertible to gold.

24:01 - Enbridge: the escape hatch from the dollar system explained.

30:14 - Credit is cracking - and the only exit is physical gold and silver.

38:44 - Why any gold price target you hear today will prove laughably low.

43:02 - Could gold miners be nationalised? Bill makes the case.

49:28 - Get out of the system, and make your plan while you still can.

Silver trades at 68.09, pushing above the converging 50 and 200 EMAs around 65 and approaching the 70.00 resistance level, with support at 60.00. Source: TradingView. The silver market fell pretty significantly right off the bat on Monday, but has turned around as we bounced basically from the 200-day EMA. The question now will be whether or not we are actually seeing some type of an attempt to turn things around, or are we just simply going back and forth trying to get a read on whether or not market participants are going to continue to be bearish like they were during the Friday session after Kevin Warsh basically stated that the Federal Reserve very well could end up hiking in the future, certainly aren’t cutting. That really rocked the markets and sent interest rates in America higher, and silver does tend to be sensitive to interest rates. We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out.

Technical Levels and Market Drivers Bouncing from the 200-day EMA will give solace to technical traders, and therefore it’s probably worth watching this area. But as things stand right now, this is a market that is at a major point of inflection, the $70 region. And if we can get back above there, I would suggest that perhaps that’s very positive. Breaking the top of the Friday candlestick most certainly would attract a lot of attention from traders, and more likely than not be willing to perhaps step on the gas, a little bit of FOMO trading at that point.

GBP/USD drops to 1.3542, breaking below the 1.3550 level and both EMAs, after declining steadily from the 1.3680 area. Source: TradingView. The British pound, I think, is probably going to be somewhat range-bound, mainly because the British pound, of course, has a higher interest rate attached to it. So, it is a little insulated from US dollar strength, and I think most of the reaction was more about the US dollar than anything else.

I wouldn’t read too much into British pound weakness, because at this point in time, even if I want to buy the US dollar, I am going to short other currencies, weaker currencies.

The British pound for me is what I want to buy if the US dollar starts to roll over. Right now, it looks pretty weak, so while shorting the pound could be possible in this general vicinity, the reality is we will probably get more mileage out of other currencies.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The Pound-Canadian Dollar could extend its recovery if the Bank of Canada turns dovish, while escalating US-Canada trade tensions remain a key risk for the Loonie. The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate rallied last week as markets were spooked by a sharp escalation in trade tensions between the US and Canada.

At the time of writing, the GBP/CAD exchange rate traded at CA$1.8809. Up around 0.2% from the start of last week’s session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.881686 (-0.09%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.610304 (-0.24%)

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.39034 (+0.37%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Canadian dollar (CAD) faced significant selling pressure last week amid concerns over the potential economic repercussions of a US-Canada trade war.

Following the collapse of US-Canada trade talks at the end of the previous week, US President Donald Trump imposed a new 50% tariff on a range of Canadian goods, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announcing matching tariffs on US imports.

Given the importance of the US market to Canada's economy, CAD investors were understandably unnerved by the threat of a trade war between the two countries.

The Canadian Dollar's losses were further compounded by a pullback in oil prices, with Brent crude retreating to around $88 per barrel amid diplomatic efforts in the Middle East to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

Closing out the week was the publication of Canada's latest GDP figures, with a sharp rebound in growth in the second quarter helping the 'Loonie' to claw back some of its losses from earlier in the session.

The Pound (GBP) initially finding support last week after analysis suggested UK productivity could be recovering more strongly than official data indicates.

That initial boost proved difficult to maintain, however, with a thin domestic economic calendar leaving Sterling without a clear catalyst for movement,

Fresh concerns over household finances then began to weigh on the Pound in the second half of the week after it was confirmed that the UK's energy price cap will rise to a three-year high from October.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Dovish BoC to Weigh on the 'Loonie'? In addition to ongoing US-Canadian trade war developments, the Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate will also be influenced by the Bank of Canada's (BoC) latest interest rate decision this week.

The BoC is widely expected to leave interest rates on hold following its September, meeting, placing the focus for CAD investors on the bank's forward guidance.

If the bank signals the potential need to adopt more accommodating monetary policy to help support the Canadian economy in its trade dispute, we are likely to see the 'Loonie' extend its losses.

Meanwhile, the UK economic calendar remains relatively light this week. August's finalised services PMI could offer Sterling some support, but otherwise the Pound is likely to remain sensitive to broader market sentiment and currency trends.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The Pound-Australian Dollar rate could rebound if Australian GDP stalls, although firm RBA rate hike expectations may keep the Aussie supported. Last week saw the Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate strike its worst levels since late June amid a notably hawkish uptick in Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hike bets.

At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.8882. Down roughly 0.8% from the start of last week’s session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.889531 (-0.01%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3534 (-0.46%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Australian dollar (AUD) initially softened last week, as geopolitical uncertainty sapped market risk appetite.

Investors were rattled by fresh trade war fears as the US slapped new tariffs on Canada, as well as the threat of new US economic sanctions on Iran and the implications for US-China relations.

After only finding fleeting gains following the release of the minutes from the RBA's August policy meeting, the 'Aussie' then received a shot in the arm with the publication of Australia's latest consumer price index.

Data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), showed that while headline inflation cooled from 3.8% to 3.5% year-on-year in July, this was ahead of forecasts it would fall as low as 3.3%.

The hotter-than-expected CPI print turbocharged RBA rate hike bets, which in turn drove significant demand for the 'Aussie' through the second half of the week.

The Pound (GBP) opened last week's session on stable footing, buoyed by a report claiming that the UK's productivity outlook is improving faster than official figures suggest.

However, Sterling struggled to sustain this modest support, as a lull in UK economic releases left Sterling vulnerable to the movement of its peers.

Adding to the pressure on the pound were fresh cost-of-living concerns, as the news that the UK's energy price cap would rise to a three-year high from October.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Stalling GDP to Looking to the week ahead, the main catalyst of movement for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate will likely be the publication of Australia's second quarter GDP figures.

Consensus estimates predict growth stalled in Q2, which could temper some of the more hawkish RBA bets and pull the 'Aussie' lower in mid-week trade.

Also of note to AUD investors will be Australia's latest trade data, which may also exert pressure on AUD exchange rates if it reports a slowdown in exports in July.

Meanwhile, the UK's data calendar looks sparse again this week, with only August's finalised services PMI potentially offering any real impetus for Sterling, which will otherwise be likely to driven by wider currency trends.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Well, good morning and welcome to the final week of summer 2026…..Let’s take a look at what happened at Jackson Hole.

Kevy Warsh acknowledged concerns put forth by Beth and Jeff. – Remember both of these Fed chairs started screaming that rates have to go up, because inflation is not cooperating and Kevy said – I hear you.

BUT, contrary to what some may say - he DID NOT promise a rate hike in September - let’s be clear about that - he may have opened the door, but he did not commit to a rate hike and yet traders and algo’s wasted no time running betting that he’s planning on raising rates.

Speaking at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole symposium, Warsh said:

“We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly and at sufficient speed. Otherwise, we have work to do.”

There it is. Otherwise, we have work to do.

And what did the trader types, algo’s and the bond market hear?

Higher rates.

The 2-yr Treasury yield surged 11 bps to 4.34% – its biggest one-day move since March – as traders immediately repriced the odds of a September rate – now putting the chances of hike at 61% - that was a 25% increase over the odds prior to his speech.

But here is where it gets interesting because remember- the FED has much more direct influence over the short end than the long end - and while the 2-yr shot up, the 30-yr barely moved.

And THAT is important. Because Friday wasn’t another bond-market tantrum over debt, deficits, Treasury supply, Scotty Bessent or fiscal credibility.

It was a monetary policy repricing NOT a fiscal credibility event. He told us that he understands the inflation problem and is prepared to deal with it. He also said that financial conditions are not currently restrictive.

Yes, the 10 yr is kissing 4.7% and the 30 yr is kissing 5.2%, yes mortgage rates are a bit elevated now at 6.7%, but in his mind, they are not restrictive, which means they may not be high enough to finish the job…and THAT is what got everyone’s attention.

So, stocks lost a tiny bit of ground…the Dow down 9 pts, the S&P down 20 pts, the Nasdaq lost 140 pts, the Russell gave back 42 pts or 1.4%, the Transports lost 61 pts, the Equal Weight S&P gave up 33 pts, while the Mag 7 gained ground – adding 210 pts.

Now, the move in the Russell makes perfect sense - Small and mid-cap companies are more sensitive to financing costs, so when the 2-yr suddenly surges 11 bps and the market starts pricing in another rate hike – guess who’s going to feel it first?

The SMIDS. But let’s also keep this in perspective. The S&P lost 19 points. That’s it. Kevin Warsh stood up, reminded everyone that inflation remains above target, told us financial conditions aren’t restrictive, opened the door to another rate hike, sent the 2-yr screaming higher – and the S&P lost 0.25%.

Hardly panic. In fact, I’d argue THAT may be the more important message from Friday.

Now let’s talk about Gold — because it got punched in the face. Coming into Friday, Gold was trading around $4,630 - up sharply from the early-August lows - as gold bugs piled into the trade over concerns about inflation, fiscal discipline, geopolitical risk and instability in the bond market.

And then Kevy spoke. Yields surged, the dollar rallied and suddenly the move higher in Gold had the rug pulled right out from under it. By the end of the day, Gold had lost more than 3% - nearly $150 - to close around $4,455.

So why the vicious reaction? Because Gold got hit with a left punch and then a right punch. Higher Treasury yields (the left punch) increase the opportunity cost of owning an asset that pays you NOTHING - no dividend and no interest - while a stronger dollar (right punch) creates another headwind for gold.

And then add in the sudden repricing of Fed policy. On Thursday, traders were assigning a 31% chance of a September rate hike. After Kevy spoke, those odds jumped to 61%.

So suddenly the gold trade had to deal with a stronger dollar, higher yields AND the possibility that the Fed isn’t finished raising rates.

And so, it was a - Sell first. Ask questions later reaction.

Friday’s move took Gold down and THROUGH the $4,530 trendline and overnight the selling continued, taking us down to $4,396 before buyers showed up. Which leaves Gold sitting right on top of the next trendline.

And now the question becomes -Was Friday simply a Kevy-induced flush — or does Gold need a bigger reset? We’re about to find out…. because Kevy may have changed the interest-rate conversation, but he didn’t suddenly make the other reasons investors own Gold disappear.

The fiscal concerns haven’t disappeared. The debt and deficit haven’t disappeared. Geopolitical risk certainly hasn’t disappeared. And inflation hasn’t disappeared — in fact, that’s the whole reason Kevy is talking about potentially raising rates in the first place. So, don’t necessarily interpret Friday’s move as the end of the gold story. I’d think about it as a test.

If Gold can hold $4,370 (trendline support) and reclaim $4,530, then Friday may turn out to have been nothing more than a ‘shaking of the branches after a very strong August run. If $4,370 doesn’t hold? Then the reset may have further to go and that reset could get us right back to $4,200. Either way - after a 14% move off the August lows, Gold was due for a bit of profit taking.

Next up Oil…..it continued to hover in the $83 zone – which was about a 4% loss for the week – that move was about the continued chatter of a new diplomatic agreement with Iran that could normalize shipping thru the strait. And that actually creates another interesting dynamic for Kevy and the FED. If oil prices fall – then inflation eases – and that blows his whole inflation argument out of the water, so stayed tuned. But, not so fast……

This morning – oil is up 3.4% at $86.30 - after the US struck 2 Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island over the weekend. The Iranians returned the fire – launching missile and drone strikes on 2 US air bases in Jordan and all that does is raise the temperature in the room again and just like that – they put the risk premium back into the price of oil. 1 step forward – 2 steps back.

And by now you also heard about the massive oil deal that Trump just struck with Venezuela – the administration calling it the biggest oil deal in history – and 65 billion barrels certainly gets your attention. The U.S. gets majority control over the development of 17 Venezuelan oil fields, with an initial production target of 1.5 million barrels a day. Strategically, that’s a big deal because it gives the U.S. another potentially enormous source of crude outside the Middle East.

But let’s be clear – those 65 billion barrels aren’t sitting on a dock waiting for a tanker. Venezuela’s infrastructure is a mess and it’s going to take billions of dollars and years of investment to meaningfully increase production.

So, this could be very important for long-term US energy security – but it isn’t going to suddenly knock $20 off the price of oil tomorrow morning.

There is no eco data today – but there are some important data points later in the week.

S&P Global Manufacturing & Services PMI’s, ISM Prices Paid, ISM New Orders, JOLTS report, ADP employment change and Friday’s NFP report.

Earnings? PANW and Dell report Tuesday, while Broadcom reports Wednesday afternoon along with Snowflake and HPE. After Nvidia blew the doors off last week, AVGO becomes the next test of the AI infrastructure trade. Then on Thursday we hear from Zscaler and Ciena. So, while earnings season is essentially over, AI, cybersecurity and enterprise tech are not done talking yet!

European markets are mixed – the UK closed for a holiday.

US futures are all lower…Dow futures – 135 pts, the S&P’s down 25 pts, the Nasdaq down 33 pts while the Russell is lower by 8 pts. As noted, it is the last day of August and the start of a holiday week.

The 2-yr treasury yield – which exploded 11 bps higher on Friday is down about 3 bps this morning as investors reconsider whether Friday’s reaction may have gotten a little ahead of itself.

Because here’s the thing. Yes, Kevy sounded a bit hawkish. But he DID NOT say – “We’re raising rates in September.”

The market said that. And there is a difference.

I am still in the camp that the Fed does NOTHING in September – or for the rest of this year. The bond market is already doing some of the heavy lifting, and I think Kevy is perfectly fine letting it do just that.

Remember – Warsh doesn’t want to spoon-feed the market with forward guidance. He wants the DATA to do the talking.

Remember - Traders took “we have work to do” and immediately translated it into “September rate hike.”

Maybe. But Kevy didn’t say that.

And this week there is plenty of data to do the talking – so let’s see what it says before we start the histrionics.

The S&P closed Friday at 7,711 – down just 19 pts. Stocks are not panicking. The bond market is not panicking. And with summer coming to an end and volumes still light, I wouldn’t read too much into every tick.

I see 7,650-ish as near-term support, while the more important trendline support sits closer to 7,550.

And now September – historically the most difficult month of the year for stocks – is about to begin. The Fed is in play. Iran is in play. The midterms are in play.

And everyone is about to come back from the beach. So strap in.

Fettuccine e salmoneFettuccine with Nova Salmon, Baby Arugula & Brandy Cream Sauce This is one of those dishes that sounds fancy but is ridiculously easy to make. Creamy, smoky, a little peppery from the arugula and finished with just enough brandy to give the sauce some attitude.

Prep time.

20m.

Cook time.

10m.

Total time.

30m.

Serves.

4-6

Ingredients

1 lb Fettuccine.

8 oz Nova Salmon - sliced into strips.

2 Handfuls of fresh arugula.

1 large shallot - diced.

1 c heavy cream.

1/3 c Brandy.

butter.

olive oil.

Fresh grated Parmegiana.

s&p.

Preparation.

Step 1

Bring a large pot of salted water to a boil.

Step 2

Add the fettuccine and cook until al dente.

Step 3

In a large sauté pan going over medium heat. Add the butter and a splash of olive oil. Toss in the shallots and sauté until they're soft and translucent – don't brown them.

Step 4

Take the pan OFF the heat for a moment, add the brandy and then return it to the heat. Let it bubble and reduce by about half. You're cooking off the harsh alcohol while leaving that beautiful brandy flavor behind.

Step 5

Lower the heat and add the heavy cream. Let it simmer gently for a couple of minutes until it begins to thicken.

Step 6

Add the fettuccine directly to the pan and toss it in the sauce. Add a little pasta water until the sauce becomes silky and coats the pasta.

Step 7

Now add the Nova salmon and toss gently. You DO NOT want to cook the salmon to death – it's already cured and smoked. You just want the heat from the pasta and sauce to warm it through.

Step 8

Remove pan from the heat.

Step 9

Add the baby arugula and toss again. The residual heat will wilt it just enough while keeping some of that peppery bite.

Step 10

Add some freshly grated Parmigiano-Reggiano and plenty of fresh cracked black pepper. Taste it BEFORE adding salt because the Nova and the cheese are already salty.

Step 11

Serve it immediately in warmed bowls. Finish with another crack of black pepper, a little Parmigiano and a few fresh arugula leaves on top.

The US Dollar (USD) is down 0.3% to near 159.65 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Monday. The USD/JPY pair declines as the Japanese currency outperforms its peers on hopes of support from the United States (US)-Japan joint intervention.

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%-0.03%-0.26%-0.14%0.04%-0.05%-0.14%EUR0.15%0.10%-0.09%0.00%0.15%0.11%0.00%GBP0.03%-0.10%-0.19%-0.10%0.04%-0.00%-0.08%JPY0.26%0.09%0.19%0.10%0.29%0.22%0.14%CAD0.14%-0.01%0.10%-0.10%0.19%0.12%0.02%AUD-0.04%-0.15%-0.04%-0.29%-0.19%-0.06%-0.11%NZD0.05%-0.11%0.00%-0.22%-0.12%0.06%-0.08%CHF0.14%-0.01%0.08%-0.14%-0.02%0.11%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Yen intervention in focusAnalysts at Scotiabank flag that the recent “defensive price action is notable, and somewhat worrisome for policymakers at the BoJ, as well as officials at the MoF,” particularly as media reports highlight “the aggregate $96.4bn intervention effort to support the yen from July 30 to August 26.”

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington would intervene with Japan to shore up the Asia-Pacific currency, if needed. These comments came after the US and Japan jointly intervened in late July, as USD/JPY jumped to a multi-decade high near 164.00.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades lower, with investors shifting their focus to a slew of US economic data, starting with ISM Manufacturing PMI for August and the JOLTS Job Openings data for July releasing on Tuesday.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.16% lower to near 99.50.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.66. The pair holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 159.55, suggesting ongoing demand on dips.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49.39 sits just below the 50 mark, hinting at consolidative conditions rather than overextended momentum, but still compatible with a gradual topside bias while price holds over the short-term EMA.

On the downside, the August 19 low at 158.05 is the key support level. Looking up, the major hurdle is the Friday high at 160.20, followed by the July 31 high at 160.88.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

EUR/USD kicked off Monday with an attempt to stabilise around 1.1587. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh returned support to the dollar with a hawkish performance at Jackson Hole. The key test now will be Friday’s US labour market report, which will show whether the case for another rate hike has sufficient backing from the economy. The US dollar has already recovered to a two-week high.

Warsh also stated that with inflation not slowing sufficiently, the regulator may need to tighten policy again. Markets now estimate the probability of a rate hike in September at approximately 57%, up from around 35% before his speech. The yield on two-year US Treasury notes climbed to 4.33%, further enhancing the appeal of dollar-denominated assets.

The main event of the week will be Friday’s August Nonfarm Payrolls report. Expectations point to an increase in employment of around 50,000, following an unexpected decline of 23,000 in July. Unemployment is projected at approximately 4.1%. Strong payrolls, combined with steady wage growth and a stable average working week, would support Warsh’s hawkish stance and may increase pressure on EUR/USD below 1.16. Weak data, on the other hand, would cast doubt on a September rate hike, lower yields, and help the euro recover.

Until Friday, markets will also monitor intermediate signals. US jobs data is due on Tuesday, followed later by private sector employment figures, jobless claims, and revised productivity statistics.

In Europe, eurozone inflation will be the main event, with expectations pointing to an acceleration to around 3.3%. A strong reading would reinforce expectations of an ECB rate hike in September and could partially offset the dollar’s support from the Fed.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market made a downward wave to 1.1567 today. A consolidation range is currently forming above this level, with a potential growth leg to 1.1597 not ruled out. Further decline to 1.1555 is expected. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is below zero and pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the downward trend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market completed the next downward wave to 1.1576. A consolidation range is forming above this level. A growth leg to 1.1597 is expected, followed by the beginning of a decline to 1.1533, with the prospect of the wave continuing to 1.1511. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is below the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20.

Conclusion EUR/USD has retreated to near two-week lows following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, which significantly raised market expectations for a September rate hike. The probability of a move has surged from 35% to 57%, supported by rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar. Markets now look to Friday’s US payrolls report as the key test for whether the economy can withstand further tightening, with a strong reading likely to push EUR/USD below 1.16. Meanwhile, eurozone inflation data will be closely watched, with a strong print potentially reinforcing ECB tightening expectations and offering some support to the euro. Technically, the pair remains bearish, with further downside towards 1.1533 and 1.1511 likely in the near term.

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Gold (XAU/USD) shows marginal gains on Monday, with price action hovering around $4.450 at the time of writing yet unable to take off from last week’s lows in the $4,400 area after depreciating more than 4% late last week. Rising bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike interest rates in September, coupled with the resumption of hostilities in Iran, are buoying the US Dollar and weighing on precious metals.

Bullion tanked on Friday as Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh conveyed an unexpectedly hawkish message at the Jackson Hole summit. Warsh urged policymakers to focus on prices, and said that the central bank has “work to do” to bring inflation to the bank’s 2% target. Investors ramped up bets of a September hike to 61% from 36% the day before, according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

Apart from that, the US and Iran exchanged attacks on Sunday to put an end to about one month of a tense truce. The US military attacked the Iranian island of Larak on Sunday, where the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were allegedly preparing missiles to place sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran responded by targeting US airbases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The risk-off reaction has underpinned support to the safe-haven US Dollar.

Technical Analysis: Bears gain confidence below the 200-day SMA

XAU/USD trades at $4,450 after an impulsive reversal on Friday that pushed price action below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,528. This is a very popular indicator for traders, and Friday's clear move below it gives fresh hope for bears.

Momentum indicators in the bearish charts show a neutral-to-negative stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 54.36 easing into a more neutral zone and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator drifting into negative territory, which hints at waning upside momentum and scope for further consolidation or downside probes.

Immediate support is seen at Friday's floor in the $4,400 area, followed by the August 14 low near $4,310 and the August 6 low, near $4,225. Bulls, on the other hand, are likely to be challenged at the mentioned 200-day SMA, at $4,528, and the August 27 low near $4,565 ahead of last week's highs, near $4,700.;

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Pound-Euro rate could come under pressure if Eurozone inflation accelerates and reinforces ECB rate hike bets, while Bailey may weigh on Sterling. The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate wavered between a one-week high and a one-week low last week, amid turbulent trade.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1664, down marginally on the week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.167684 (-0.07%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.354083 (+0.05%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.159631 (+0.12%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) found some initial support on Monday after analysis from the Resolution Foundation thinktank indicated that UK productivity may have strengthened in recent years, rather than deteriorated.

With little in the way of domestic data to offer further direction, Sterling fluctuated as the week progressed.

The Pound climbed to a one-week high against the Euro on Tuesday before reversing course. A weaker-than-expected Confederation of British Industry (CBI) distributive trades survey and growing concerns over the cost of living, fuelled by rising energy bills, then dented Sterling.

As UK data remained thin for the rest of the week, the Pound continued to trade without a clear direction.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) softened slightly at the start of last week amid a lack of data and EUR’s negative correlation with the US Dollar (USD), as the latter currency crept higher.

The common currency managed to attract some support on Tuesday, after Germany’s final GDP figures for the second quarter were revised slightly higher and the latest IFO business climate index rose more than forecast.

European Central Bank (ECB) expectations helped the Euro rise against the Pound through the latter half of the week, although the currency’s gains elsewhere were limited.

ECB policymaker Isabel Schnabel said on Wednesday that further interest rate hikes are likely, while the bank’s meeting minutes on Thursday reinforced this stance.

An improvement in Eurozone economic sentiment in August, published on Friday, helped the Euro stay afloat through the end of the week.

Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: Eurozone Inflation in the Spotlight Looking forward, EUR investors are likely to focus on the Eurozone’s latest preliminary consumer price index, due out on Tuesday.

The flash CPI is expected to show that headline inflation accelerated from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August. If it prints as forecast, the Euro could strengthen as markets price in a more hawkish approach to interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank.

For the Pound, the UK’s final services PMI could provide some direction on Thursday. Confirmation of stronger activity in August may offer Sterling some support.

Attention could then turn to a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Friday. If the BoE chief maintains a cautious stance on the need for further interest rate hikes, the Pound could come under pressure.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

EUR/USD near two-week low: Dollar regains favour with markets

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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

XAU/USDGold broke 4575/4570 to trigger a move to a buying opportunity at 4555/4545.

A bounce from 4530 hit 4582, so there was a potential $30 to $35 on the trade but then Gold collapsed again breaking below 4520.

If you watched my video, the next downside target was 4435/4415 - we made a low for the day at 4445 so we got very close.

Today's very important support is a little lower at 4415/4400. Longs need stops below 4390.

An unexpected break lower can target 4376/72, perhaps as far as 4363/4359.

I think for the next day or 2 gains are likely to be limited with minor resistance at 4486/92.

Above 4496 allows a recovery to 4503/4513 & we could reverse from here.

A break above 4518 however can target a sell opportunity  at 4528/4533.  Shorts need stops above 4544.

XAG/USDSilver climbed initially beating resistance at the 6980/6990 highs for a buy signal targeting 7110/7130.

Longs worked perfectly with a high for the day exactly at 7112. Again, we took the maximum out of this opportunity.

However on the Warsh speech, silver crashed back below 6775/6750 to target a mega buying opportunity at 6655/6640.

I stated: There is a good chance of a low for the day here but longs need stops below 6610.

With a low for the day at 6608 I am happy that this was pretty accurate, especially in such conditions where we had broken the 1 week low.

(The first time we tested 6655/6640 we did manage a quick bounce to 6619 before retesting the level).

I think silver will also remain under pressure in the short term. A break below 6585 could trigger further losses to 6565/6560 & even as far as an excellent buying opportunity at 6490/6460.

This could mark a low for this downside correction but longs need stops below  6410.

If we manage to recover from 6655/6640 on Monday we meet first resistance at 6710/6730.

Shorts need stops above 6770.

Danske Research Team notes that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech pushed EUR/USD lower, with markets now pricing September as nearly a coin-flip for a rate hike. The team highlights that the Dollar strengthened versus both the Euro and Japanese Yen, while EUR/USD is broadly unchanged in early Asian trading despite the repricing in US rates.

Hawkish Fed rhetoric pressures Euro"In the US, Fed Chairman Warsh struck a notably hawkish tone in his speech at Jackson Hole, reaffirming that the 2% PCE target is "firm" and "fixed" and signalling that more work remains if inflation does not move towards target with sufficient speed."

"This represents a step away from his July press conference tone, where Warsh had emphasised markets' role in determining the direction of rates. The remarks sent EUR/USD lower. Overall, Warsh's message was consistent with a central banker open to hiking at the next meeting, with September now priced as nearly a coin-flip."

"Also on the wires, Fed's Hammack, who voted for a rate hike at the last meeting, struck a hawkish tone, calling for immediate action on rate hikes and warning that waiting risks creating further pain. She expects inflation to end the year around 3%, well above the 2% target, and does not view current financial conditions as restrictive."

"Focus turns to the German flash inflation figures for August, ahead of the euro area release tomorrow. Headline HICP inflation is expected to increase to 3.1% y/y (prior: 2.8%), driven by energy prices. Attention will centre on momentum in underlying inflation, which remained unaffected by the energy shock in the figures from Spain and France last week."

"This week we have another crucial event for the US market with the labour market report for August, which is released on Friday. On top of this we have inflation data from the eurozone."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Hesitates near 0.8550 with the risk-off mood capping rallies

TL;DR: The RBNZ’s Wednesday 25bp hike to 2.75% is already priced in, so NZD/USD’s real reaction will hinge on the accompanying rate forecast — ASB expects the OCR to keep climbing to 3.25%, while Westpac sees that same outcome as only a 10-15% probability tail case.

September Hike Looks Like the Low-Drama Part of the Meeting The RBNZ is widely expected to raise the OCR by 25bp from 2.50% to 2.75% when it announces its decision on Wednesday, September 2 at 2pm NZT. Markets are already close to fully pricing that outcome, leaving relatively little room for the headline hike itself to move NZD materially unless the Bank surprises.

The RBNZ’s key interest rate, the Official Cash Rate (OCR), currently sits at 2.50%. Two major New Zealand banks — ASB and Westpac — published detailed previews on August 26, and both arrive at the same headline call: a 25-basis-point hike to 2.75%, agreed by consensus among all six members of the Bank’s rate-setting committee.

ASB’s Senior Economist Mark Smith put it plainly: with the hike “close to fully priced in by financial markets,” the RBNZ is expected to “take the path of least resistance.” Westpac’s Chief Economist Kelly Eckhold reached the identical call independently, also describing it as a likely consensus decision.

When two competing banks agree this closely on the immediate outcome, the actual rate decision becomes low-drama. That’s exactly why this preview focuses less on Wednesday’s number and more on what comes wrapped around it.

A “Sure Thing” That Isn’t Universally Agreed Even so, it’s worth being honest that “priced in” doesn’t mean everyone thinks it’s the right call. The NZIER Monetary Policy Shadow Board — an independent panel of economists surveyed ahead of each decision — published its latest read on August 31, and only just over half of its members actually recommend the hike.

Those in favour, including BNZ’s Stephen Toplis and economist Viv Hall, point to inflation still running above the Bank’s comfort zone. Those preferring to hold, including Dennis Wesselbaum and Kerry Gupwell, note that much of the recent inflation pickup looks supply-driven rather than demand-driven, and that the case for another hike isn’t yet airtight. One panel member, Jarrod Kerr, goes further and argues New Zealand doesn’t have much of an inflation problem left to fight.

ASB and Westpac Agree on Wednesday, Then Diverge Sharply This is where it gets interesting. Both ASB and Westpac agree on Wednesday’s hike — but they disagree meaningfully on what happens for the rest of the year, and that disagreement is worth explaining plainly:

ASB’s view: the OCR keeps rising in a straight line — a hike in September, another in October, another in December — ending the year at 3.25%, a level ASB considers roughly “neutral” (neither stimulating nor restraining the economy). Westpac’s view: September’s hike happens, and then the path becomes genuinely uncertain. Westpac actually treats “two more hikes bringing the OCR to 3.25% by year-end” as its less likely, more hawkish scenario — assigning it only a 10–15% probability. Westpac’s more central expectation is that the RBNZ pauses to assess the data before committing to anything further. In plain terms: what one bank calls its most probable outcome, the other bank calls a low-probability tail case. That’s a real disagreement between two serious economics teams looking at the same numbers — not just a rounding difference — and it’s the single most useful thing to watch for as Wednesday’s statement and press conference unfold.

Both banks do agree on one thing: the RBNZ is very likely to avoid committing to an October move either way, preferring to say future decisions depend on incoming data. That means the accompanying rate forecast the Bank publishes alongside its decision — not the hike itself — is the thing markets will actually trade off on Wednesday.

The Committee Has Become More Unified, but the Risk Debate Isn’t Settled The RBNZ’s own voting history shows how the policy debate has shifted. In May, the committee split 3–3 between holding and hiking, with Governor Anna Breman’s tie-breaking vote favoring no change. By July, the same six-member committee had moved to unanimous support for raising the OCR to 2.50%.

That progression suggests the direction of travel has become clearer. But July minutes also showed disagreement had moved from the immediate decision to assessment of what comes next. Two members saw inflation risks tilted to the upside, while four judged risks broadly balanced.

A unanimous September hike would therefore not necessarily mean the committee has reached consensus over the full tightening path. The more important signal will be whether the forecasts and statement imply September is another step toward neutral, or whether the RBNZ is preparing to pause after delivering it.

Oil Has So Far Been Kinder Than the RBNZ Feared Energy remains central to the inflation backdrop. In May, the RBNZ based forecasts on Dubai crude gradually falling toward roughly US$96 a barrel by year-end and published alternative scenarios showing how different oil outcomes could affect rates.

Under a scenario where oil remained near $120 and firms passed higher costs through aggressively, the RBNZ estimated the OCR could ultimately need to rise as high as 4.30%. If oil remained elevated but firms absorbed more of the shock, the projected peak was closer to 3.60%. If oil fell broadly as expected and weaker spending became the dominant force, the Bank indicated rates could simply remain on hold.

Actual oil prices have so far developed more favorably. Dubai crude stood at $88.72 on August 28, below the RBNZ’s baseline assumption rather than above it. That helps explain why current rate expectations are far removed from the Bank’s most hawkish oil scenario.

The risk hasn’t disappeared. Renewed Middle East escalation on August 30 pushed Brent back above $90, raising the possibility of another inflation shock if disruption becomes persistent. But for now, oil hasn’t delivered the kind of sustained upside surprise that would by itself justify moving toward the RBNZ’s aggressive tightening scenarios.

Domestic Data Give the RBNZ Reasons for Both Action and Caution Inflation peaked at 3.9% in the June quarter, slightly below the RBNZ’s earlier forecast, and is projected to ease toward 3.3% in the September quarter. Inflation expectations across households, businesses, and professional forecasters also softened in September-quarter surveys, broadly reversing part of the increase associated with the earlier oil shock.

The labor market is less supportive of aggressive tightening. Unemployment reached 5.6% in the June quarter, a little weaker than the RBNZ had expected. That argues against assuming September automatically begins a rapid sequence of hikes.

Financial conditions have meanwhile moved in both directions. The New Zealand Dollar and market interest rates tightened in May, eased in July, and tightened again through August. Broader US Dollar strength following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech has added another external tightening force. That matters because the RBNZ is deciding how much domestic policy restraint is still required in an environment where some tightening is already arriving through markets.

What to Actually Watch on Wednesday The published interest rate forecast, not the hike. Look specifically at where the RBNZ projects rates will end the year and where they’ll peak. If that number lands notably below what markets are currently expecting, it could actually weigh on the New Zealand Dollar even though the Bank is hiking. Any hint about an October move. Both major banks expect the RBNZ to avoid committing either way. A clearer signal in either direction — more hawkish or more dovish than expected — would be the real surprise of the day. Governor Breman’s tone in the press conference. Given her deciding role in May’s tied vote, her communication style carries extra weight even now that the committee has converged. ActionForex’s Technical View on NZD/USD Despite last week’s notable retreat on broad USD strength, downside remains relatively contained. The rising channel off the 0.5625 low remains intact, keeping the case for a resumed rally in force. A break above 0.5987 remains favoured at a later stage as the next bullish trigger.

There’s nevertheless a warning from momentum. Bearish divergence is visible in the 4H MACD, while the recent decline has pushed the pair back toward channel support. A firm break of that floor would confirm a short-term top, opening a deeper corrective decline toward the 38.2% retracement of the 0.5625–0.5987 leg, at 0.5849.

The daily picture puts 0.6000 into better perspective. A break above the nearby 0.5993 swing high would open the way toward the 0.6092/0.6119 resistance cluster. That area sits inside a much larger range that has contained NZD/USD for more than a year and is likely to cap upside on the first attempt.

Wednesday therefore presents two technical tests. Near term, the question is whether RBNZ communication is strong enough to keep the rising 4H channel intact and push the pair through the psychological 0.6000 area. Medium term, clearing 0.6092/0.6119 on anything more than a temporary basis would likely require a genuine repricing of the RBNZ-Fed policy differential rather than the expected 25bp hike alone.

The OCR Track Is Where Surprise Risk Lives With September’s hike already heavily discounted, NZD’s reaction is likely to depend on where the RBNZ sees rates at year-end and at the eventual peak. A track consistent with continued tightening toward 3.25% would lean toward ASB’s view and give NZD a better chance of challenging 0.6000 and beyond. A flatter path implying a pause after September would align more closely with Westpac’s central case and could leave the Kiwi vulnerable despite the higher OCR.

That’s why Wednesday is less about whether the RBNZ hikes and more about whether the Bank validates the tightening markets expect after it. The headline decision may be largely priced. The OCR track is not.

Key Takeaways Wednesday’s 25bp RBNZ hike to 2.75% is already close to fully priced in, meaning the accompanying rate forecast will drive NZD’s reaction, not the decision itself. ASB expects the OCR to keep climbing to 3.25% by year-end, while Westpac treats that same outcome as only a 10-15% probability, favoring a pause instead. Even a unanimous hike wouldn’t confirm committee consensus on the full tightening path, since July minutes already showed a split over how upside inflation risks are assessed. Oil has stayed below the RBNZ’s baseline assumption so far, keeping current rate expectations well short of the Bank’s most hawkish tightening scenarios. NZD/USD holds a bullish bias above the rising channel floor, with 0.5987 the next trigger and 0.6092/0.6119 the bigger medium-term test that likely needs more than a 25bp hike to clear.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

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