Moderate Gains, Not a BreakoutTwo of the most widely used AI models, Claude and Grok, both point to modest upside for Shiba Inu ($SHIB) by the end of 2026, rather than the kind of explosive rally that propelled the token to prominence in 2021. The consensus view is cautious: the conditions for a major breakout are not yet in place.
Both models identify SHIB's large and active community, often called the Shib Army, as the token's most durable asset. Community strength contributes to visibility, drives social media trends, and influences market sentiment. However, it is not enough to move price on its own in the current environment.
Claude flags slowing network activity, limited token burns, and resistance near current price levels as the key headwinds. On the burn side, the data supports that concern. Although burn activity has shown periodic spikes in 2026, it remains only a tiny fraction of SHIB's circulating supply of around 589 trillion tokens. Even outsized single-day burns equate to a negligible share of supply. Burning is a long-term deflationary tool, not a near-term price lever.
Shibarium Adoption Remains the Missing PieceGrok points to ecosystem execution as the other critical variable, and the on-chain picture for Shibarium is mixed. The network has recorded more than 1.56 billion total transactions, yet daily activity had fallen below 2,000 transactions for much of early July before a brief recovery. DEX trading volume on Shibarium recorded zero activity from June 23 through the end of the month, rising to just $275 on July 10 before retreating. Total value locked remains well below the billions locked on competing Layer 2 networks such as Arbitrum and Base.
As the market matures, meme coin price trajectories like SHIB increasingly depend on fundamentals, including Shibarium adoption, total value locked, burn rate, and DeFi integration, rather than social hype. Until those metrics improve meaningfully, there is little technical justification for a sharp move higher.
Both Claude and Grok agree that macro forces will ultimately set the tone. SHIB's price closely tracks the broader cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin's performance in particular. A sustained meme coin rotation, driven by Bitcoin strength, would be the most likely catalyst for meaningful outperformance. Without it, SHIB appears rangebound for now.
This article reflects AI-generated forecasts and third-party analyst views. It does not constitute financial advice. Crypto assets are highly volatile and speculative.
Sources
The Crypto Basic: Shiba Inu Burn Rate Surges 55% With 39,320,000 SHIB Destroyed
The Crypto Basic: Shibarium DEX Trading Volume Surges Over 1,500% as Network Activity Rebounds
Benzinga: Shiba Inu Price Predictions 2026
A long-dormant Bitcoin whale has resurfaced after eight years, moving 5,908 BTC worth about $382.67 million to a new wallet.
Blockchain tracker Lookonchain called attention to the movement on X. Notably, the wallet had been inactive since receiving the coins in 2018, when the holdings were worth roughly $99.64 million. At the time, Bitcoin traded at around $16,865, with the bear market still in its early stages.
Eight-Year Hold Still Earns $283M Interestingly, the investor is moving the coins during another bear market. Despite doing so, the investor is still sitting on an estimated $283 million profit.
At Bitcoin’s current price of around $64,700, the 5,908 BTC is worth approximately $382.67 million. The stash has nearly quadrupled in value since it was acquired.
Meanwhile, the transfer has drawn attention because Bitcoin is trading about 49% below its 2025 all-time high.
Source: Arkham How Much Profit Was Missed? If the investor had sold at Bitcoin’s 2025 peak of $126,200, the 5,908 BTC would have been worth about $745.6 million.
At that price, the investor’s portfolio would have been worth approximately $745.6 million. Accordingly, the total profit would have reached around $645.95 million, representing a 648% return on investment after nearly a decade of holding.
Compared with its current value, the wallet is worth about $362.9 million less than it would have been at the peak. In other words, the investor missed out on that amount in unrealized gains by not selling earlier.
Source: Arkham Early Bitcoin Holders Remain Well Ahead The transfer highlights how profitable early Bitcoin investors remain despite the market downturn. Even after Bitcoin’s 50% decline from its record high, those who accumulated the asset before its major bull runs are still sitting on significant gains.
Meanwhile, with the bear market approaching one year, market watchers are looking for signs that the downturn is ending. In a post on X, market commentator Seth said selling Bitcoin now is “a crime”. He argued that “only poor people” sell after a 54% correction and $100 billion in liquidations.
The comment suggests that Bitcoin’s downside risk is now lower than its upside potential, given how much the asset has already declined.
Healthy Buying Signals CryptoQuant analyst TopNotchYJ recently said Bitcoin’s on-chain data suggests the market is entering a healthy accumulation phase, with investors steadily buying despite risks from elevated leverage.
He said Bitcoin has transitioned from the speculative bull market of 2025 into a “structural consolidation phase,” with institutions increasingly driving demand. Key indicators, including a stable SOPR near 1.0 and declining exchange reserves, suggest balanced trading activity and growing long-term accumulation.
Bitcoin is also seeing more BTC move into ETFs and institutional custody, reducing the amount of supply held on exchanges.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
Bitcoin slipped below $63,000 on Friday as renewed U.S. military action against Iran added to a broader retreat from risk assets.
Summary
Bitcoin fell below $63,000 as renewed U.S.-Iran fighting and wider risk-off sentiment pressured markets Friday. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs added $79.15 million Thursday, providing limited support during renewed geopolitical selling. Technical levels place $65,000 as resistance while losing $62,200 could expose Bitcoin’s lower trading range. According to crypto.news market data, BTC traded near $62,777, down 2.19% over 24 hours, after moving between $62,705 and $64,753.
The decline extended BTC’s pullback after sellers rejected prices near $65,000 earlier in the week. Asian equity markets also fell sharply on Friday, although a major selloff in technology and semiconductor stocks was a central driver of the broader market weakness. The MSCI Asia-Pacific index dropped 2.7%, while Japan and Taiwan recorded heavier losses.
Meanwhile, geopolitical pressure increased after the U.S. carried out another wave of strikes against Iran. The latest attacks targeted infrastructure and military-linked sites in southern Iran, including bridges and facilities near key ports. Iran also continued retaliatory attacks across parts of the Gulf region.
Fresh tension between Washington and Beijing added another source of uncertainty. President Donald Trump released intelligence and alleged Chinese interference connected to the 2020 U.S. election.
China denied the allegations, while previous U.S. intelligence assessments found no evidence that Beijing changed the election result. Markets are also watching whether the dispute affects Trump’s planned September meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Bitcoin traders watch $62,200 support and $65,000 resistance Despite the latest decline, institutional flows offered some support. According to the SoSoValue figures provided for the July 16 session, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $79.15 million in net inflows, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with $33.44 million.
Source: SoSoValue The inflows follow a period of uneven institutional demand. Bitcoin recently faced pressure from rising oil prices and renewed U.S.-Iran tensions while traders watched support around $62,000. That analysis identified resistance between roughly $63,100 and $64,700.
The latest technical setup remains mixed. The chart data provided for this report showed BTC below its nine-day simple moving average near $63,765, while the relative strength index stood at 47.74. That places momentum slightly below neutral without showing deeply oversold conditions.
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news Bitcoin has also remained inside the broader $60,000–$65,000 range for more than a month. A sustained recovery above $64,000 and $65,000 would improve the short-term structure. However, another rejection from that area could keep the cryptocurrency locked inside its current consolidation range.
Analysts highlight key resistance and support levels Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe said BTC’s broader setup remains constructive despite the latest correction. In his view, a clear breakthrough above $65,000 could open the way for stronger upside momentum.
Nothing changed on $BTC.
It's looking great for upside momentum from here, even despite the recent correction.
Clear breakthrough above $65K, and we're still going to see a strong run. pic.twitter.com/tT6YAakMsI
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 16, 2026 Meanwhile, Ardi identified the $63,300–$63,800 region as an important trendline area and placed horizontal support near $62,200. He warned that losing both areas could signal that the current relief rally has ended.
Ali Charts offered a longer-term view based on Bitcoin’s previous market cycles. He noted that BTC has historically formed major bottoms about 12 months after major market peaks. If that pattern repeats, he said the next major bottom could emerge around October. However, historical cycles do not guarantee that Bitcoin will follow the same timeline again.
Historically, Bitcoin $BTC has bottomed roughly 12 months after each major market top.
If that pattern holds, the next market bottom could form around October. pic.twitter.com/8oHc0jaUzs
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 17, 2026 In addition, Crypflow also pointed to Bitcoin’s two-week MACD as a potential confirmation signal. The analyst noted that during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, BTC had already reached its cycle bottom before the two-week MACD produced a bullish crossover. Based on that pattern, a future crossover could confirm an existing bottom rather than identify it in advance.
The asset is also moving through a large options settlement. As crypto.news reported earlier Friday, around $1.2 billion in BTC options expired with maximum pain near $63,000. The expiry came as Bitcoin remained inside the $60,000–$65,000 range that has contained price action for more than a month.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
JPMorgan has pointed to two developing signals as reasons for cautious optimism on $BTC: a growing cash buffer at Strategy and resilient institutional demand in Bitcoin futures markets.
Strategy's Cash Reserve Eases Forced-Sale Fears Strategy has increased its dollar reserves to $3 billion, enough to cover roughly 20 months of preferred dividend payments. That build-up matters to Bitcoin investors because it reduces the perceived risk that the company might need to liquidate part of its Bitcoin holdings to meet financial obligations.
JPMorgan analysts had previously said Strategy could ease concerns about potentially having to sell Bitcoin in the future to fund preferred dividend payments by rebuilding reserves to cover two to three years of dividends. The analysts now said it is difficult to determine whether the cash buildup has directly improved sentiment among Bitcoin investors. Even so, the bank's tone has shifted in a more positive direction.
Strategy currently holds 843,775 BTC and plans to use future capital raises for additional Bitcoin purchases and further reserve expansion.
Futures Demand Stays Firm Despite ETF Volatility Strategy's recently boosted cash reserves and positive flows into Bitcoin futures are "encouraging signs" for the Bitcoin outlook, even as spot Bitcoin ETF flows remain volatile, according to JPMorgan analysts led by managing director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou in a Wednesday report. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have been erratic in recent weeks, with inflows one week followed by outflows the next.
The positive flow momentum was visible in both Chicago Mercantile Exchange Bitcoin futures and perpetual futures, which the analysts said tend to be driven more by institutional investors than retail traders.
By contrast, flows into leveraged ETFs tied to Strategy have remained steadier and positive over the past seven weeks, the analysts noted.
Taken together, JPMorgan's assessment suggests that institutional confidence in Bitcoin remains intact at the derivatives level, even if the spot ETF market has shown inconsistency. For now, Strategy's stronger liquidity position and the durability of futures demand appear to be the two factors keeping the bank's Bitcoin outlook constructive.
Sources:
The Block: JPMorgan says bitcoin outlook sees 'encouraging sign' as Strategy boosts cash reserves
Crypto.news: JPMorgan sees Strategy cash buildup as positive for Bitcoin outlook
Bitcoin Japan has secured plans to raise approximately 9.66 billion yen (approx $59.5 million), with 662 million yen (approx $4.08 million) earmarked for its first Bitcoin treasury allocation since adopting its new corporate identity.
Summary
Bitcoin Japan has planned a 9.66 billion yen fundraising, with 662 million yen allocated for its first Bitcoin purchases. Most of the proceeds will go toward private equity, rare earth mining, and Robot as a Service investments, while Bitcoin receives about 7% of the total. The funding follows an earlier capital raise that failed to finance its Bitcoin treasury strategy after falling short of its fundraising target. Japanese crypto news outlet CoinPost reported that Tokyo Stock Exchange-listed Bitcoin Japan, formerly Horita Marusho, will issue 1.5 billion yen in unsecured convertible bonds with stock acquisition rights alongside a second series of stock acquisition rights through Cayman Islands-based investment fund EVO FUND.
If the securities are fully exercised, the company expects net proceeds of about 9.657 billion yen.
Bitcoin receives 7% of planned fundraising Company filings cited by CoinPost show that Bitcoin purchases will receive 662 million yen, or about 7% of the planned financing. The largest share, 3.756 billion yen, has been set aside for undisclosed private equity investments, followed by 3.503 billion yen for rare earth mining projects in South Africa and 1.446 billion yen for investments in a Robot-as-a-Service (RaaS) business. Another 290 million yen has been allocated for working capital.
Convertible bonds allow investors to exchange debt for company shares at a predetermined price. CoinPost noted that the structure can reduce immediate pressure on the share price by spreading conversions over time, although the company remains responsible for repayment if the bonds are not converted.
Bitcoin Japan changed its name from Horita Marusho in 2024 and announced plans to transition from a textile trading business into a digital asset treasury company centered on Bitcoin and AI infrastructure. Even so, the company has yet to acquire any Bitcoin.
The latest allocation follows an earlier fundraising effort that fell short of expectations. Company disclosures previously showed that Bitcoin Japan planned to raise as much as 5.715 billion yen in December 2025, including 988 million yen for a Bitcoin treasury strategy. Weak share price performance limited investor participation, reducing the total amount raised to 3.095 billion yen and leaving no funds available for Bitcoin purchases.
Current filings state that the newly allocated Bitcoin funds will be deployed selectively depending on market conditions. The company has not disclosed a purchase timeline, targeted Bitcoin holdings, or performance metrics, although it continues to describe Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against the erosion of fiat currency value.
Financing comes after technology investment push The fundraising follows Bitcoin Japan’s recent expansion into technology investments beyond digital assets.
In May, the company disclosed an investment in SpaceX through its wholly owned U.S. subsidiary, BTCJPN US LLC, using a U.S.-based private secondary market transaction. At the time, Bitcoin Japan said it was targeting sectors including AI compute infrastructure, satellite communications, digital assets, and next-generation technologies as part of its long-term investment strategy.
The latest financing could also substantially increase the company’s share count. According to documents cited by CoinPost, full conversion of the convertible bonds and exercise of all stock acquisition rights at the minimum price would result in dilution of up to 110%, or 115% on a voting rights basis.
Because the transaction qualifies as a large third-party allotment under Japanese rules, the company obtained an opinion from an independent committee consisting of outside legal experts, which concluded that the financing was necessary and reasonable.
Financial results released by the company showed consolidated revenue of 2.959 billion yen and an operating loss of 462 million yen for the fiscal year ending March 2026, extending its streak of operating losses to eight consecutive years. Against that backdrop, the planned Bitcoin allocation represents the company’s first funded step toward executing the treasury strategy it announced after its rebranding.
Ordinals Advocate Proposes Alternative Bitcoin ClientLeonidas (@LeonidasNFT), the prominent Bitcoin Ordinals and Runes advocate behind the $DOG community, has proposed a new open-source Bitcoin client called $DOG Mode. The initiative is designed to relax transaction relay policies that Leonidas argues have long constrained Ordinals and Runes users on the Bitcoin network.
At the centre of the proposal is Bitcoin's dust limit, the minimum output size a node will relay. Currently, that floor sits at between 294 and 546 satoshis for standard transactions. Ordinals, which embed images and text directly into Bitcoin transactions, and Runes, which issue fungible tokens on Bitcoin, must pad their outputs with extra bitcoin just to clear that threshold. Leonidas says removing the floor would release an estimated $25 million in padding back to those ecosystems.
What DOG Mode Would Change, and What It Would Not$DOG Mode would make two key changes to Bitcoin Core's relay policy. First, it would cut the dust limit from its current range down to a single satoshi. Second, it would raise the maximum standard transaction size from 400,000 weight units to 3.9 million, meaning nodes running the client could relay transactions filling nearly an entire block, up from roughly one-tenth of one.
Crucially, the proposal does not touch Bitcoin's consensus rules, the layer that defines what makes a block valid and that would require broad miner agreement to change. Relay policy is separate and softer, governing only what an individual node chooses to forward to its peers. Because $DOG Mode operates at that layer, it requires no fork and no miner vote. Leonidas has said the goal is to attract enough users to the new client that Bitcoin Core would eventually have to loosen its own defaults.
The announcement arrives as BIP-110, a competing proposal that would restrict non-financial data on Bitcoin through a consensus change, has stalled with effectively no miner backing. Unlike BIP-110, $DOG Mode needs only one miner willing to include such transactions to be functional in practice. The client currently exists as an announced initiative and does not yet have published code.
Sources:
CoinDesk: Bitcoin's Anti-Spam Fight Gets a DOG Mode Reply
CoinTelegraph: Ordinals Advocate Proposes New Bitcoin Client DOG Mode
The inexorable advance of cutting-edge quantum computing poses an existential threat to blockchain security, forcing the ecosystem to revise its cryptographic foundations. Preserving inactive Bitcoin wallets against machines capable of breaking private keys is a critical priority. On July 16, Project Eleven unveiled a post-quantum cryptographic proof proposal to address the “Q-Day” challenge. By replacing signature validation with lineage verification, this protocol offers an unexpected safety net.
In Brief Quantum computing threatens to break Bitcoin cryptography, making classic signatures unusable to prove wallet ownership. While active users will migrate easily, about 7 million bitcoins lie dormant in addresses vulnerable to quantum hacking. Developed with the Binius system, this new protocol allows proving wallet ownership via its parent key (the seed phrase) without ever revealing it. This method offers an unprecedented safety net to recover lost funds, even after private key compromise. The Predicted Collapse of Classic Signatures at Q-Day The current security of the Bitcoin network relies on elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), a shield that the arrival of quantum computers will break at “Q-Day”. The major problem lies in the absolute impossibility of authenticating the true wallet owner once private keys are compromised.
Alex Pruden, CEO of Project Eleven, summarizes this deadlock: “how do you prove you still own a wallet after a quantum computer has forged its signatures? After Q-Day, once a quantum computer can derive an ECC private key from its public key, a valid signature no longer proves ownership. Both the quantum adversary and the legitimate owner can produce identical signatures”.
This major vulnerability creates several critical risks for the network :
Cryptographic identity theft : a hacker equipped with quantum power can calculate the private key from an exposed public key to generate valid signatures ; The pillaging of dormant accounts : if active users migrated in time to new addresses, millions of inactive wallets without human intervention would become easy prey, threatening the network’s economic stability. Project Eleven’s Protocol To bypass this major vulnerability, Project Eleven introduces a method based on the wallet key derivation path. Instead of using the final private key to sign, the protocol allows users to prove they hold the parent key, or recovery phrase, without ever revealing it.
As Alex Pruden explains: “thus, even after Q-Day, a hacker who has broken the private key of your address does not hold, and cannot calculate, the recovery phrase from which it was derived. Proving that you know this parent key, without revealing it, is something only the true owner can do”.
This implementation was developed with Jim Posen, lead contributor to the open-source zero-knowledge proof system Binius, optimized to accelerate hashing operations. Funded by Project Eleven, this work builds on the concept of “signature lifting” theorized by Alon Sattath and Robert Wyborski. By moving the proof to the parent key level, this technology offers a unique fallback solution for accounts that could not be transferred to resistant standards.
The Race for Integration and Consensus Obstacles The urgency to act is accelerating as risks become clearer. In June, Coinbase’s quantum advisory board warned that 7 million bitcoins risk being lost without a post-quantum transition. This proposal arises amid technical and political mobilization? In February 2026, the BIP-360 proposal entered formal review, followed in March by a testnet from BTQ Technologies, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed decrees to accelerate the federal transition to post-quantum cryptography.
However, implementing this proof faces the challenge of community consensus. Project Eleven’s prototype remains unaudited and requires a Bitcoin protocol upgrade. Pruden admits awareness limits: “even though I would like the whole world to take a quantum migration plan seriously, the reality is some crypto wallets will miss the boat. This gives them a fallback solution: proving ownership by derivation, not by signature, even after the window closes”.
Ultimately, although Project Eleven’s technological solution offers an ingenious rescue perspective for orphaned wallets, it illustrates the complexity of adapting a decentralized network to the quantum era. Future implications of this debate will force the community to arbitrate between historical immutability and the necessary integration of emergency recovery protocols. Bitcoin’s long-term future will depend on this delicate compromise between mathematical rigor and survival pragmatism.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Bitcoin Japan, a company listed on the Japanese stock exchange that recently changed its name from Hota Marusho, is preparing to add Bitcoin (BTC) to its balance sheet following a capital increase. The company announced that it raised approximately 9.657 billion Japanese yen, or about $60.3 million, through the issuance of convertible bonds and new share purchase rights (warrants).
According to the company’s announcement, approximately 662 million yen ($4.1 million) of the funds raised will be used directly for Bitcoin purchases. This amount represents about 7% of the total funds collected. This marks Bitcoin Japan’s first actual Bitcoin investment for its institutional treasury since its name change.
Management stated that the Bitcoin investment is a crucial part of the company’s long-term financial strategy, noting the increasing presence of digital assets on corporate balance sheets. In recent years, many publicly traded companies, particularly in Japan and the US, have begun to consider Bitcoin as a treasury asset for purposes such as hedging against inflation, diversifying reserves, and long-term store of value.
Bitcoin Japan’s decision is seen as one of the latest developments indicating that institutional Bitcoin adoption is gaining momentum in Asia. The company plans to use the remaining funds raised through the capital increase to expand its operations, strengthen working capital, and finance strategic investments.
Market analysts say that publicly traded companies starting to build Bitcoin reserves shows that institutional confidence in digital assets continues. According to experts, Bitcoin Japan’s first BTC purchase is not only a step consistent with the company’s new corporate identity, but also reveals the increasing interest in digital assets in Japanese capital markets. It is predicted that similar strategies may be adopted by other Japanese companies in the coming period.
*This is not investment advice.
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The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched another round of missile strikes on US military aircraft stationed at Azraq Air Base in Jordan on July 15, marking the sixth wave of what Iran has branded Operation Nasr 2. The targets included aircraft shelters housing F-15, F-16, and F-35 fighter jets, plus facilities supporting MQ-9 Reaper drones.
Jordan’s air defense forces intercepted most of the incoming missiles, with Jordanian authorities reporting no confirmed casualties or structural damage.
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What’s actually happening on the ground The IRGC framed the July 15 operation as retaliation for prior US strikes on Iranian targets, a pattern that has defined the conflict’s rhythm since hostilities escalated in February 2026. Azraq Air Base sits in northeastern Jordan and serves as a critical hub for US air operations in the region. Through June and July, both the frequency and intensity of these strike waves have increased.
How markets are reading the conflict Oil moved first and fastest. Prices jumped nearly 4% in the immediate aftermath of the July 15 intercepts.
Bitcoin’s reaction was more nuanced. The asset has been trading in a range between $62,600 and $64,700 around mid-July.
The crypto-specific angle worth watching involves sanctions infrastructure. Iran has historically used crypto as a mechanism to move value outside the reach of US financial sanctions. Exchanges operating in the US face heightened pressure to demonstrate sanctions compliance, which can affect liquidity and onboarding for certain asset types.
On the macro side, a sustained oil price increase of the kind we’re seeing would feed directly into inflation expectations. Higher energy costs pressure central banks to keep rates elevated longer, which historically has been a headwind for risk assets including Bitcoin.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been counting down to its next bottom for nearly two months, a classic onchain metric suggests.
Key points:
BTC supply in loss passed 50% for the first time this bear market in early June.In previous bear markets, that event sparked a countdown to a new BTC price macro bottom.Separate data hints that the bull market’s “emotional premium” has now gone.Supply in loss countdown already Bitcoin’s second-longestIn its H1 2026 Round-Up report, crypto research company K33 Research flagged more than 50% of the BTC supply now being held at a loss.
A typical bear-market feature, supply in loss has become a yardstick for progress toward macro bottoms for BTC/USD.
K33 data shows that once supply in loss passes the 50% mark, the bottom has come no more than 101 days later. Bear markets have provided various time frames, with the shortest bottom “window” lasting just 13 days in 2022.
The 2018 bear market required 23 days to reach its floor, while in 2014, Bitcoin continued to decline for 101 days after the 50% supply-in-loss mark was hit.
In 2026, supply in loss repeated standard bear-market behavior, crossing 50% on June 5. Since then, 42 days have elapsed, making this year’s bottom window Bitcoin’s second-longest ever.
BTC supply in loss and days until bear-market bottom (screenshot). Source: K33 Research
In accompanying commentary, K33 observed that returns over the year following the phenomenon “tend to be very solid.”
Earlier this month, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, estimated that supply in loss was around two months away from levels that correspond to bear-market bottoms.
CryptoQuant data puts supply in loss at 46% as of July 17.
“Distribution of capital” teases silver liningContinuing, CryptoQuant eyed what it described as “rare” readings from Bitcoin investor cost-basis models.
The realized cap variance (RCV) model, which measures the difference between realized cap and market cap, currently sits in the bottom six percent of its historical range.
“Instead of tracking price alone, it isolates the variance between realized cap and market cap relative to its own rolling history, capturing how stretched or compressed investor cost basis has become versus current valuation,” contributor Crazzyblockk explained in a QuickTake blog post on Thursday.
“When that variance compresses into deeply negative z-score territory, the emotional premium built during rallies has largely been priced out. The metric doesn’t read narrative, it reads the distribution of capital.”Bitcoin RCV data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
At -2.35, standardized RCV’s Z-score is once again pointing to the final stages of the Bitcoin bear market.
“Every prior stretch where the model spent extended time below a -2.0 z-score, late 2018, mid-2022, early 2015, preceded forward twelve-month returns north of 75%,” the post noted.
“The most extreme reading in this dataset, -4.68 in November 2018, landed almost exactly on Bitcoin’s cycle bottom near $3,792.”This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Bitcoin (BTC) has been counting down to its next bottom for nearly two months, a classic onchain metric suggests.
Key points:
BTC supply in loss passed 50% for the first time this bear market in early June.In previous bear markets, that event sparked a countdown to a new BTC price macro bottom.Separate data hints that the bull market’s “emotional premium” has now gone.Supply in loss countdown already Bitcoin’s second-longestIn its H1 2026 Round-Up report, crypto research company K33 Research flagged more than 50% of the BTC supply now being held at a loss.
A typical bear-market feature, supply in loss has become a yardstick for progress toward macro bottoms for BTC/USD.
K33 data shows that once supply in loss passes the 50% mark, the bottom has come no more than 101 days later. Bear markets have provided various time frames, with the shortest bottom “window” lasting just 13 days in 2022.
The 2018 bear market required 23 days to reach its floor, while in 2014, Bitcoin continued to decline for 101 days after the 50% supply-in-loss mark was hit.
In 2026, supply in loss repeated standard bear-market behavior, crossing 50% on June 5. Since then, 42 days have elapsed, making this year’s bottom window Bitcoin’s second-longest ever.
BTC supply in loss and days until bear-market bottom (screenshot). Source: K33 Research
In accompanying commentary, K33 observed that returns over the year following the phenomenon “tend to be very solid.”
Earlier this month, Axel Adler Jr., a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, estimated that supply in loss was around two months away from levels that correspond to bear-market bottoms.
CryptoQuant data puts supply in loss at 46% as of July 17.
“Distribution of capital” teases silver liningContinuing, CryptoQuant eyed what it described as “rare” readings from Bitcoin investor cost-basis models.
The realized cap variance (RCV) model, which measures the difference between realized cap and market cap, currently sits in the bottom six percent of its historical range.
“Instead of tracking price alone, it isolates the variance between realized cap and market cap relative to its own rolling history, capturing how stretched or compressed investor cost basis has become versus current valuation,” contributor Crazzyblockk explained in a QuickTake blog post on Thursday.
“When that variance compresses into deeply negative z-score territory, the emotional premium built during rallies has largely been priced out. The metric doesn’t read narrative, it reads the distribution of capital.”Bitcoin RCV data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
At -2.35, standardized RCV’s Z-score is once again pointing to the final stages of the Bitcoin bear market.
“Every prior stretch where the model spent extended time below a -2.0 z-score, late 2018, mid-2022, early 2015, preceded forward twelve-month returns north of 75%,” the post noted.
“The most extreme reading in this dataset, -4.68 in November 2018, landed almost exactly on Bitcoin’s cycle bottom near $3,792.”This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
The countdown to a potential Bitcoin market bottom is nearing 50 days since the supply in loss metric surpassed the 50% mark. This development, first reported by Cointelegraph, highlights a significant threshold that has historically aligned with the bottom of previous Bitcoin bear markets. The metric reached this level around mid-June 2026 when Bitcoin prices ranged between $61,000 and $66,500, which traditionally suggests potential seller exhaustion. Despite these historical parallels, some analysts caution that the lack of realized capitulation suggests the market bottom may not have fully materialized, indicating a period of possible continued volatility.
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Key Takeaways Market data suggests the Bitcoin supply in loss surpassing 50% appears consistent with potential market bottom scenarios. Historical patterns indicate this metric level often coincides with Bitcoin bear market lows, potentially reflecting seller exhaustion. Current market pricing implies confidence in Bitcoin maintaining prices above key thresholds, with a 99.8% probability of staying above $60,000. What to Watch Watch for further market movements that could solidify or challenge the current pricing confidence. Developments such as ETF inflows, Federal Reserve rate decisions, or significant changes in on-chain data could impact sentiment. Analysts will be particularly attentive to any signs of realized capitulation or shifts in economic indicators that may indicate changes in Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
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Term Structure
Contract Odds Δ since publish Volume 24h July 17 2026 99.8% — — View market → July 17 2026 93.1% — — View market → July 17 2026 0.4% — — View market → July 17 2026 0.1% — — View market → July 17 2026 0.1% — — View market → July 17 2026 7.4% — — View market → July 17 2026 99.9% — — View market → July 17 2026 99.9% — — View market → July 17 2026 99.9% — — View market →
President Trump delivered a primetime address to the nation on July 16, 2026, mixing an economic progress report with a lengthy, controversial announcement about declassified intelligence tied to elections.
Trump opened by touting economic gains under his administration. “Our country is safer, stronger, and far wealthier than it has ever been before,” he said, contrasting it with what he called “the worst inflation in 48 years” at the start of his term.
He cited a recent inflation reading: “This week it was announced that inflation saw the largest monthly decline in more than 6 years.” He also pointed to stock market highs, tax provisions in his “Big Beautiful Bill” eliminating taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security, and a drug pricing initiative he calls “Most Favored Nations.” “Drug prices are coming down by 70, 80, and 90%,” he said.
Declassifying Election Intelligence
The core of the speech centered on a set of documents Trump said his administration would begin releasing that night. “I’m announcing the immediate declassification and release of critical intelligence revealing shocking vulnerabilities in our election infrastructure,” he said.
Trump claimed the documents show China “carried out what is believed to be the largest compromise of election data in history,” alleging the country acquired 220 million U.S. voter files. He also alleged that intelligence officials suppressed this information from him and Congress, saying one internal email described efforts to “deliberately massage daily briefings to withhold Chinese briefings regarding the election.”
This claim arrives after federal investigators previously concluded foreign interference had no practical impact on the 2020 election’s outcome, and numerous state audits found no evidence supporting the broader fraud claims Trump has made since his 2020 loss.
Trump also referenced a Department of Homeland Security review he said identified “approximately 278,000 noncitizens who are registered to vote in federal elections,” and alleged a fraudulent voter registration operation in Michigan tied to a 2020 FBI investigation.
Targeting the Media
Trump criticized NBC and ABC for declining to air the speech. “In a rare move, NBC and ABC fake news have both said that they would not cover this speech,” he said, adding, “Fraud like this should mean a revocation of their licenses.”
The Push for the Save America Act
Trump closed by calling on Congress to pass the Save America Act, which would require photo voter ID and proof of citizenship for voter registration, and would largely eliminate mail-in ballots except for cases involving illness, disability, military deployment, or travel.
“This landmark bill requires all voters must show a photo voter ID,” he said, urging Americans to “pick up your phone tomorrow, call your representatives in the House and Senate, and demand they pass the Save America Act without delay.”
Crypto Markets Slip During the Speech
The crypto market pulled back, with total market capitalization falling 1.41% to $2.19 trillion. Bitcoin held relatively steady near $63,450, down 1.95% on the day, while altcoins took a harder hit. Ethereum slipped toward $1,848, XRP fell to $1.08, and Solana dropped to $75, each down roughly 2% to 3%. The Fear and Greed Index sat at 33, still in “Fear” territory, with the Altcoin Season Index at 52 out of 100.
Story Ends Here
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A closely watched on-chain metric is signalling a shift in how $XRP moves through Binance, with the gap between large-holder and retail activity narrowing to its lowest level in weeks, according to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Spread Nears May LowsCryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha noted on July 16 that the Binance Whale vs. Retail Spread for $XRP fell to 35.1%, nearly matching the 35.6% reading recorded in early May. The metric tracks the difference in outflow activity between large holders and smaller retail-sized participants on the exchange. The spread tracks the gap between large XRP outflows and smaller retail-sized outflows on Binance, where whale activity refers to outflow bands above 10,000 XRP and retail activity refers to outflows below that threshold.
A high spread means whales are dominating exchange withdrawals by a wide margin, while a falling spread shows that the difference between large holders and smaller traders is becoming less extreme. Taha stressed, however, that the indicator measures the activity gap only and does not confirm whether whales are buying or selling.
Broader CEX Picture Diverges From BinanceThe narrowing on Binance stands against a different trend across the wider centralized exchange market. The 7-day moving average of the XRP Whale vs. Retail Spread across all centralized exchanges rose from 26% on May 6 to 50.9% on June 29, an increase of 24.9 percentage points. The All CEX whale-retail spread now exceeds the Binance figure by 3.3 percentage points, pointing to a divergence in market structure between Binance and the broader exchange landscape.
Whale activity has increased across centralized exchanges while large transfers on Binance declined, signaling concentrated supply movement that could affect liquidity and price dynamics for $XRP.
The divergence adds context to recent exchange reserve data. CryptoQuant data showed that Binance held 2.61 billion XRP, its lowest reserve level since February, though the figure does not reveal whether those funds entered private wallets, custody services, or other venues.
Taha's caution on directionality is worth noting. Because the metric tracks outflows rather than inflows, it reflects changes in withdrawal structure rather than direct selling pressure. A whale pulling $XRP off Binance could be accumulating into self-custody as easily as preparing to sell. The outflow direction alone does not determine intent.
What is clear is that the repeated appearance of a compressed spread is unusual. Analysts caution that a metric reaching its lowest point once can often be dismissed as random fluctuation, but when the same level is hit again, it is considered a notable pattern.
Sources
CryptoQuant: XRP Whale-Retail Gap Splits Across Exchanges
Crypto.news: XRP Whales Snap Up 70M Tokens as Exchange Reserves Hit New Low
NewsBTC: XRP Whale Vs. Retail Spread Just Hit A 2-Year Low
Jake Claver, a cryptocurrency analyst, recently outlined a series of macroeconomic developments that could significantly impact the price of XRP. Speaking on the “Good Evening Crypto” podcast hosted by Abs Nassif, Claver connected shifts in Japanese monetary policy, new US stablecoin legislation, and stock market tokenization as critical factors shaping the digital asset landscape.
Japanese monetary policy drives global flowsJapan is currently the second-largest foreign holder of US Treasuries, with reserves totaling $1.6 trillion. For years, investors leveraged the “yen carry trade,” borrowing yen at minimal interest rates and investing in higher-yielding US bonds. This strategy contributed to Japan’s vast accumulation of US debt.
However, rising interest rates in Japan and the maturing of large loan books, combined with renewed tensions in the Middle East that could disrupt oil supply, are beginning to reverse this trend. Claver argued that higher energy costs will likely increase Japanese inflation and prompt additional rate hikes, further raising the cost of borrowing yen and resulting in a stronger currency.
As conditions tighten, Japanese investors are starting to reduce their US Treasury positions, repatriating funds to yen and Japanese bonds. Claver cited sharp market volatility in August 2024, including a 13% single-day drop in the S&P 500, as evidence of what could occur if the carry trade continues to unwind on a larger scale.
Mini dictionary: Yen carry trade, a financial strategy where investors borrow Japanese yen at low interest rates and invest in higher-yielding assets in other countries, profiting from the interest rate differential.
XRP’s role amid legislative and market shiftsThe Genius Act, recently proposed in the US, aims to allow banks to use returning Treasuries as stablecoin reserves. Large investment banks facing unrealized losses might seek appreciating assets to balance their positions. Claver highlighted the risks posed by Bitcoin ETFs, noting that significant investments by pension and sovereign wealth funds make these instruments a potential trigger for broader market instability if Bitcoin’s price experiences a sharp drawdown.
A rapid decline in Bitcoin could force large institutional holders to sell, amplifying volatility and accelerating the transition toward real-time settlement in financial markets.
Discussion during the podcast highlighted that “deep changes in the global flow of funds, alongside the next generation of market infrastructure, could reset liquidity dynamics for digital assets such as XRP.”
Institutional adoption and the DTCC’s tokenization plansClaver noted that US stock market settlement has already moved to a T+1 model, and industry leaders are exploring distributed ledger technology for further upgrades. He referenced a conversation between the NASDAQ president and Ripple president Monica Long, where they discussed the use of blockchain solutions for the DTCC’s back-end clearing and reconciliation processes.
Ripple Prime, a service associated with XRP’s issuer Ripple, has been named as one of the 50 participants in the DTCC’s Industry Working Group. This group also includes major financial players such as Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, BlackRock, Circle, and Ondo Finance. The DTCC is preparing for initial production trades of tokenized assets in July, with a broader rollout anticipated in October.
Mini dictionary: DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation), a central clearinghouse that provides clearing and settlement services for US financial markets, is responsible for processing trillions of dollars in securities transactions every day.
InstitutionRole in DTCC Working GroupRipple PrimeDeveloping DLT-powered settlement for tokenized assetsGoldman Sachs, JPMorgan, BlackRock, Circle, Ondo FinanceIndustry participants in tokenization pilotCLARITY Act aims to reshape regulatory groundThe CLARITY Act, currently on the Senate Legislative Calendar, is designed to address regulatory ambiguities in digital asset classification. A vote is expected in the near future.
Claver argued that successful settlement of tokenized equities at scale will require significantly more liquidity. He expects that rising demand, combined with the effects of US and Japanese monetary policies and upcoming DTCC launches, could trigger a supply shock for XRP.
Claver outlined that, “with the yen carry trade unwinding, potential regulatory clarity coming through the CLARITY Act, and DTCC tokenization on the horizon, the setup for a major XRP price move is emerging.”
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Key Highlights Major XRP holders added 70 million tokens during the July 11–15 period, increasing total whale balances to 3.83 billion XRP. XRP reserves on Binance declined to 2.61 billion, marking the lowest point since February 2026. The digital asset trades around $1.11 while approaching resistance within a symmetrical triangle formation. Open interest in XRP futures climbed to $2.5 billion, featuring significant liquidation zones concentrated between $1.09 and $1.14. A new $800,000 XRP airdrop campaign for RLUSD holders was introduced by Binance, scheduled from July 17 to August 14. Trading activity shows XRP hovering around $1.11 following a greater than 5% bounce from its recent bottom near $1.05. This upward momentum has coincided with intensified purchasing from large-scale investors and declining token availability on major exchanges.
[[IMG_4]]XRP Price According to blockchain analytics from Santiment highlighted by cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez, addresses containing 1 million to 10 million XRP expanded their aggregate holdings from approximately 3.71 billion to 3.83 billion tokens during the four-day span between July 11 and July 15. This translates to nearly 70 million XRP absorbed by substantial holders within a single week.
Concurrently, XRP balances held on Binance decreased to 2.61 billion tokens, representing the platform’s lowest inventory level recorded since February 2026. Exchange holdings have contracted from more than 3 billion XRP observed in late 2025. Reduced exchange inventory typically indicates fewer tokens readily accessible for immediate sale, although this metric alone doesn’t ensure upward price movement.
Binance’s XRP Reserves Stabilize at Their Lowest Level Since February
“If this trend continues alongside improving demand, it could help ease selling pressure over the medium term.” – By @ArabxChain pic.twitter.com/THfjKcbIFD
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) July 15, 2026
Favorable macroeconomic indicators from declining US inflation figures also bolstered overall cryptocurrency market sentiment. Latest consumer and producer inflation measurements diminished expectations for aggressive monetary tightening, contributing to XRP’s recovery from recent depressed levels.
Symmetrical Triangle Formation Highlights $1.12 Threshold Technical analysis of the 4-hour timeframe reveals XRP challenging the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle structure. The downward-sloping resistance trendline converges near $1.12, while ascending support approaches the $1.06–$1.08 region. Successfully breaching above $1.12 could establish momentum toward $1.1843, representing the July 4 peak.
The 4-hour Chaikin Money Flow indicator registers 0.26, signaling positive capital inflows. The MACD histogram on the daily timeframe has shifted into positive territory at 0.0053. Nevertheless, the daily Relative Strength Index remains neutral at 49, and TradingView’s comprehensive technical aggregator currently assigns XRP/USD a neutral rating.
Market strategist DukesMarketAnalysis observed that purchasing activity has not yet achieved a decisive penetration above $1.12. “A confirmed breakout above this resistance level would substantially reinforce the bullish outlook,” the analyst commented.
Technical specialist Ali Charts indicated that the monthly timeframe displays a TD Sequential buy indication, while the hourly perspective shows XRP consolidating within a symmetrical triangle. He emphasized that surpassing $1.13 decisively could trigger a potential 20% advance targeting $1.35.
XRP: BREAKOUT AHEAD!?
The monthly chart is flashing a TD Sequential buy signal, while the hourly chart shows $XRP consolidating inside a symmetrical triangle.
A breakout above $1.13 could open the door to a 20% rally toward $1.35. https://t.co/LSkn4NoAWP pic.twitter.com/8LtBFkCSOE
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 16, 2026
Futures Market Creates Pressure Zones Near Current Price Action Information from CoinGlass indicates XRP futures open interest approaching $2.50 billion, reflecting a 2.65% increase during the past 24 hours. The liquidation heatmap for the same period reveals concentrated liquidity clustering between $1.117 and $1.13 immediately above present levels, with supplementary positioning around $1.14.
Beneath current trading levels, another liquidity concentration exists at $1.09–$1.10. Inability to maintain this zone could potentially expose underlying support structures near $1.06.
Additionally, Binance unveiled an $800,000 XRP distribution initiative targeting Ripple USD holders, operational from July 17 through August 14, allocating XRP weekly every Friday to qualifying participants across Binance Earn, Margin, and Futures platforms.
Crypto analyst and commentator Austin Hilton stated that XRP remains in the early stages of growth, projecting substantial long-term opportunities for investors. Hilton shared his perspective with followers on X, expressing confidence in XRP’s potential, even as cryptocurrency prices have recently improved across the market.
Positive market trends and macro outlookHilton emphasized the overall positive momentum observed in the digital asset market over the previous 36 hours, noting that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP all delivered weekly gains. He suggested that although the price increases were limited, they signaled robust capital inflows and sustained market strength.
He identified easing US inflation data and a more favorable Federal Reserve stance as contributing factors. Citing the latest Consumer Price Index, Hilton said declining inflation could prompt the central bank to keep interest rates steady or even lower them, which he viewed as supportive for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Hilton also pointed out that improving liquidity conditions may further reinforce digital asset performance in the coming months.
XRP’s differentiation and Ripple’s evolving ecosystemDiscussing his position on XRP specifically, Hilton highlighted that Ripple, the company behind XRP, is building financial infrastructure for international settlements rather than simply launching another blockchain token.
He explained that Ripple targets the cross-border payments market by facilitating rapid settlements, minimizing fees, and providing liquidity using XRP. Hilton remarked that many financial institutions have not yet rolled out comprehensive blockchain initiatives but are quietly exploring digital asset solutions while awaiting regulatory clarity.
Ripple has also been expanding through key acquisitions such as Hidden Road, Metaco, and Standard Custody. Hilton argued these moves reflect efforts to create a full-service financial ecosystem, enabling Ripple to deliver custody, brokerage, and payments services to institutional clients.
Mini dictionary: Ripple is a financial technology company developing payment and settlement infrastructure, best known for its use of the XRP Ledger and its role in enabling cross-border financial transactions.
Tokenization trends and long-term prospectsHilton also discussed the emergence of tokenized real-world assets, which include digital representations of stocks, bonds, and real estate, as a possible growth driver for Ripple and the XRP Ledger. He believes that developments such as Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin, together with the network’s settlement speed and cost efficiency, enhance the prospects for wider blockchain adoption.
He estimated that, under these improving conditions, XRP could yield returns of 10x, 20x, or even 30x over a one to five-year period for long-term holders. Hilton insisted that this projection reflects a long-term investment thesis rather than a call for quick gains.
For long-term holders, Hilton considered XRP “just the beginning” and highlighted the possibility of a “20x–30x+ opportunity” given current macro trends and Ripple’s institutional partnerships.
Hilton cautioned, however, that cryptocurrency markets remain volatile and could experience another major correction before the next prolonged advance. He noted that historical Bitcoin cycles suggest the market may see an additional retracement before new highs are reached.
Should such a downturn occur, he projected a potential short-term retreat in XRP’s price to the $0.50–$0.60 range, attributing this decline to overall market sentiment rather than any fundamental weakness in the asset.
Hilton suggested that a sharp pullback would present an opportunity for accumulation, as he maintains a strong outlook for XRP’s long-term trajectory in the digital asset landscape.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
XRP has entered the same macro buy warning zone as Bitcoin, a development that marks the beginning of major multi-year accumulation windows.
This rare signal has often appeared near the start of multi-year accumulation periods, and this has led many market participants to believe the current phase could present an attractive entry point if the market follows its historical cycle.
XRP Rebounds After a Deep Correction Currently, XRP trades at around $1.12 after recovering slightly from the cycle low recorded in late June. The token briefly fell to $1.01, bringing it within touching distance of the important $1 psychological support level for the first time in about 19 months.
The decline completed a massive correction that erased more than half of XRP’s value from its cycle peak of $3.6, reached during the summer of 2025. Now, XRP has entered a buy warning zone similar to the one it slipped into in 2024 before the meteoric surge.
This structure began with the major pivot low of $0.3823 formed in July 2024. From there, XRP completed a five-wave rally amid stronger trading volume and a breakout above a Fibonacci extension level, pushing toward the $3.6 all-time high in July 2025.
However, from here, XRP has continued to correct. The latest pullback still looks like a normal correction, not the start of a new bearish trend, and seems similar to the same demand zone from July 2024.
XRP Slips Into Buy Warning Zone Notably, Bitcoin has also slipped into such buy warning zone. However, the current low has not yet produced the signals that have marked every major XRP bottom in the past.
A confirmed bottom would require a one-two-three-four-five impulse within about four weeks, rising trading volume throughout the move, and a close above the key Fibonacci level. Until these signals appear, the chances that XRP has already reached its cycle bottom remain lower.
Important Price Levels Remain in Focus The first major resistance level sits near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at about $1.18. Above that, the 20-period exponential moving average stands near $1.22, a level that has stopped every recent recovery attempt.
On-chain cost basis data also points to these areas as major resistance. About 22.8 million XRP sits between $1.18 and $1.19, while another 27.4 million XRP is concentrated between $1.21 and $1.22. That supply could make it more difficult for buyers to push prices higher.
Support remains just as important. XRP continues to hold above the $1 level, but a clear move below that price could open the door to a decline toward $0.80.
If the token falls below the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $1.02, attention could shift to the 0.618 Fibonacci level around $0.87. This area aligns with a stronger support zone where the next major market bottom could develop.
What Comes Next for XRP? Although XRP has entered the same macro buy warning zone as Bitcoin, the market still needs stronger confirmation before calling a major bottom. Traders should watch for rising trading volume, a breakout above the key Fibonacci level, and a complete five-wave impulse forming within about four weeks from the cycle low.
Every major XRP bottom has shown this combination of signals. Notably, analysts such as Casi and EGRAG Crypto still believe XRP could make one more lower low before the correction ends.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
XRP is going through another deleveraging phase on Binance.
According to CryptoQuant author Darkfost, a key derivatives metric has dropped to one of its lowest levels since late 2024. A similar reset in 2024 preceded XRP’s 790% rally.
Binance Leverage Ratio Drops Near Multi-Month Low Darkfost said Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), which measures leveraged futures positions relative to exchange reserves, has fallen to 0.16. It is now close to its April 2026 low of 0.15, making it one of the weakest leverage readings since November 2024.
Meanwhile, XRP has corrected by about 70% from its 2025 high of $3.65. This suggests traders have significantly reduced their leveraged exposure during the downturn.
The accompanying chart shows the ELR steadily moving toward the red support zone after peaking during XRP’s previous rally. At the same time, XRP’s price has retraced to around $1.10.
Lower Open Interest Points to a Healthier Market According to Darkfost, the falling leverage ratio is primarily due to shrinking futures positions. Liquidations during the correction have also contributed to the decline. As leveraged positions are closed, open interest falls, reducing speculative activity.
The analyst said this deleveraging phase is a healthy sign. Excessive leverage often makes markets more fragile and increases the risk of sharp price swings.
Similar to the 2024 Setup Darkfost compared the current setup to mid-2024, when XRP traded near $0.40 and spent months consolidating while Binance’s ELR dropped to around 0.05.
Following that leverage reset, XRP went on to rally more than 790% to over $3.60, with leverage gradually returning alongside rising prices. With XRP trading at $1.10 today, a repeat of this historical move would put the token’s price at approximately $9.80, close to the psychologically important double-digit level.
However, Darkfost emphasized that the current conditions do not guarantee another major rally. Instead, he said monitoring deleveraging cycles can help traders better understand changes in market structure and position themselves as speculative excess is gradually flushed from the system.
XRP Withdrawals Hit Five-Month High Meanwhile, XRP holders are moving more tokens off major exchanges, with withdrawals now outpacing deposits on Coinbase, Binance, and Bybit. CryptoQuant data shows that Coinbase recorded its strongest seven-day withdrawal trend since February this week. Withdrawals on Binance have also returned to February levels.
Despite the increase in exchange outflows, XRP’s price has remained stable near $1.10, suggesting the withdrawal trend has not yet translated into immediate price gains.
Analyst Amr Taha added that the data measures the number of deposit and withdrawal transactions—not the amount or value of XRP moved—making it a reflection of changing user behavior rather than capital flows.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
From ETF launches to major acquisitions - here's what happened in the past year in the Ripple ecosystem despite the token crash.
Remember last year? I mean, you should; it wasn’t all that long ago. From a crypto perspective, it brought some massive gains, crashes, records, intensity, adoption, and everything in between.
Numerous digital assets managed to break their previous all-time highs, including Ripple’s XRP. In fact, it took the token over seven years to do what many considered impossible just months prior.
Nevertheless, XRP pushed through, rocketed past $3.40, which was widely considered the all-time high at the time, and charted a new one at $3.65. Oh, and it did so precisely a year ago on this date, according to CoinGecko (some exchanges will show that it was on July 18, but it’s a matter of time difference).
The Next 12 Months The rally that began after the 2024 US presidential elections gave the Ripple bulls wings to make some major predictions. XRP’s ability to spike above $3.50 only strengthened their thesis, and massive forecasts began to drop left and right. The more modest ones set $5 as the next target, but the majority envisioned a mind-blowing surge into the low-double-digit price range.
If you have even remotely followed what took place in the following 12 months, you would know the reality was painfully different. XRP was almost immediately rejected. By early August, it had already dropped below $3, and even though it challenged the old ATH at $3.40 in the following weeks, it was evident that the momentum had faded.
The token managed to remain at around $3 until the notorious October crash, when it slumped to $1.60 on some exchanges and even to $1.10 on a few others. Although it quickly rebounded to $2.60, the chart below will clearly demonstrate its downfall in the following months, which included permanently losing the $2 support and even challenging the next major one at $1.
It still remains above that coveted line, but current data shows a 70% crash in exactly a year: from $3.65 to $1.08 as of press time. The question is: did something go wrong for XRP and Ripple, or is it just a classic bear-market correction?
You may also like: Binance XRP Reserves at Lowest Since February as Ripple Price Defends Key Support XRP and ETH Traders Turn Bullish as FOMO Surges to 5-Week High: Santiment 3 Years After The Key Ripple-SEC Ruling: How XRP Went From SEC Target to Institutional Asset XRPUSD July 17. Source: TradingView Ripple’s Moves Despite the XRP price nosedive, the company behind the asset has not stood still in the past year. Perhaps its biggest move was the acquisition of Hidden Road for $1.25 billion. Technically, it was announced prior to XRP’s ATH, but it was completed later that year, and Ripple Prime launched afterward.
The company also received initial approval to establish Ripple National Trust Bank and, most recently, full authorization in Europe by securing a MiCA license. The former allows it to build federally regulated banking infrastructure, while the latter enables it to offer regulated crypto payments, custody, liquidity, and XRP services across the EEA.
The firm has also initiated expansions in several other regions, including Australia, Singapore, Japan, and Brazil.
Last but definitely not least, the first XRP ETFs were greenlit in the US in November 2025, quickly becoming a fan favorite among investors.
Consequently, the past year could be described as one of the most successful fundamentally for Ripple. Yet, its native token has fallen by 70%, which begs the question of whether the market has yet to fully price in these developments.
Recent discussions surrounding the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) and the XRP Ledger have sparked escalating claims within the crypto community. Market analyst MRCΛULIMΛN has responded, suggesting that both supporters and skeptics may be missing the broader implications of these developments.
DTCC’s Gradual Approach to TokenizationDTCC, a key facilitator of securities transactions in the United States, is not transitioning its entire operations to the XRP Ledger, nor has it dismissed blockchain integration outright. Instead, the corporation continues to focus on modernizing capital markets through the tokenization of assets—a process that involves introducing new technologies with caution and intentionality.
The modernization takes place through pilot programs, collaborative industry efforts, interoperability trials, and step-by-step production deployments rather than abrupt changes to existing infrastructure. This phased approach is in line with the organization’s longstanding reputation for stability and risk mitigation in processing trillions of dollars in securities each day.
Ripple, a fintech company best known for developing solutions around the XRP Ledger, has established a role within this transformation. Ripple Prime, through its involvement in the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC), a DTCC subsidiary, and participation in DTCC’s Digital Assets Tokenization Working Group, has joined critical industry discussions with major banks, asset managers, and market service providers.
Mini dictionary: DTCC (Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation) is a US-based organization providing clearing, settlement, and information services for equities, corporate and municipal bonds, and other securities. It underpins much of the US financial market infrastructure.
DTCC functions like Wall Street’s highway system, serving as the backbone for processing immense volumes of securities transactions. Blockchain networks such as the XRP Ledger are gradually enhancing, rather than abruptly replacing, this infrastructure.
Evidence of Steady IntegrationInstitutional adoption of blockchain technologies tends to follow a gradual, multi-stage pathway. MRCΛULIMΛN emphasized that advancements in market infrastructure require lengthy verification, regulatory coordination, technological alignment, and only then, incremental implementation. Sweeping technology shifts are rare, with integration instead occurring through methodical industry partnerships and standardization efforts.
This perspective is shared by researcher SMQKE, who has pointed to the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) as a major transformation in the financial sector. He cited DTCC’s processing of live trades involving DTC-tokenized assets as evidence that asset tokenization has moved beyond theoretical pilots into real trading environments.
Mini dictionary: Real-world asset (RWA) tokenization refers to the process of creating blockchain-based representations of physical or traditional financial assets, enabling easier trading, transfer, and settlement on digital platforms.
Tokenization has shifted from the experimental phase to actual deployment, as demonstrated by DTCC’s handling of production trades with digital assets.
XRP’s Role in DTCC’s FrameworkFurther reflecting this trend, XRP has now been incorporated into DTCC’s clearing and haircut framework. While this change does not signal that DTCC has selected XRP or the XRP Ledger as its core settlement network, it indicates that XRP is recognized within DTCC’s risk management practices.
The inclusion falls short of full integration, but it suggests a level of acknowledgment regarding the role digital assets may play in the future of securities infrastructure. Rather than clear-cut adoption or rejection, these steps highlight a measured approach where traditional and digital financial systems converge through steady collaboration.
In summary, the DTCC’s evolving relationship with blockchain and tokenization initiatives, including the participation of Ripple and the XRP Ledger, represents a broader industry move towards interoperability and transformation rather than immediate overhaul.
AspectDTCC StatusXRP/XRPL InvolvementCore Infrastructure MigrationNo migration underwayNot adopted as main networkPilot ProgramsOngoingRipple involved via Working GroupAsset TokenizationAdvanced, live trades processedXRP included in risk frameworkSettlement NetworkUses existing systemsXRP considered, not implementedDisclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
XRP rally prophet DonAlt says Bitcoin is at a turning point, making $61,000 the main line in the sand.
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Prominent crypto trader DonAlt, who accurately predicted XRP's 700% rally in 2024–2025, has returned with a technical analysis of the Bitcoin chart for mid-summer 2026. According to his assessment, the leading cryptocurrency has reached a turning point in its medium-term cycle, and its next move depends entirely on buyers' ability to defend a key support level.
Bitcoin is currently trading within the $62,500–$63,500 range, showing a local recovery impulse after the prolonged June decline. Nevertheless, DonAlt is urging market participants not to focus on short-term intraday fluctuations, but instead to pay attention exclusively to the monthly candle close, with the $61,000 threshold now acting as the main dividing line for the trend.
What a Drop Below $61,000 Means for BTC and XRPThe technical picture on the chart divides the end of July into two possible outcomes:
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Bullish case: A monthly close above $61,000 would confirm buyers' strength. A July close above this level — and the higher the better — would demonstrate that the market structure remains bullish and that the current accumulation phase could become the foundation for a new full-scale uptrend.Bearish case: A close at or below $61,000 would mean that the current price recovery should be classified as a "pity bounce" — a temporary corrective move before another wave of selling. Under this scenario, investors should prepare for a decline toward the next major strategic support zone near $45,000, which is clearly visible in Bitcoin's trading history.For XRP and the broader altcoin market, this verdict is no less important. Historically, major XRP moves have often occurred when Bitcoin was either stabilizing or rising confidently.
Bitcoin price outlook by DonAlt, Source: DonAlt via XIf BTC manages to hold above the $61,000 line and enters a consolidation phase, this could free up liquidity and create conditions for a local altcoin rally. Conversely, if Bitcoin falls toward $45,000, the prolonged decline of the market leader would drag XRP lower as well, erasing the token's attempts to consolidate near its local highs.
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Another market trigger at the end of the month will be the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting scheduled for July 28–29. The regulator's interest-rate decision and Jerome Powell's subsequent remarks will traditionally set the direction for all risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin buyers need to defend the $61,000 level until the meeting outcome is announced in order to avoid a deeper correction in August.
XRP has entered the fifth and final stage of a multi-wave Elliott Wave pattern that started in late June, currently pointing to several short-term price targets.
Specifically, the pattern places the first target at $1.23062, while a stronger rally could push the price as high as $1.40.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.09810, up 0.05% on the day. Meanwhile, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47.98, showing neutral momentum and suggesting the market still has room to move either higher or lower.
This Elliott Wave structure has formed on the 4-hour timeframe since XRP reached a low of $1.012 on June 26. Since then, the market has completed the first four waves of the pattern and has now moved into the middle of the fifth and final wave.
XRP Elliott Waves One to Three The current pattern began on June 26, when XRP dropped to $1.012 before quickly rebounding higher. The first wave lifted the price from that low to $1.07 by June 27.
Then, the second wave unfolded as an ABC correction across June 29 and June 30. During this phase, sub-wave A pulled XRP from $1.07 down to $1.03 by June 29.
Sub-wave B followed with a rebound to $1.076 later that same day. Finally, sub-wave C completed the correction by pushing the price back to $1.02 on June 30, marking the end of the larger wave two.
From here, wave three started at the $1.02 low and produced the strongest rally in the entire sequence. Specifically, XRP climbed to $1.18 by July 4, gaining $0.16, or about 15.7%, from the bottom of the wave to its peak.
XRP 4h Elliott Wave This $1.18 level remains the highest point reached during the current Elliott Wave structure and now acts as the level that the fifth wave needs to move above to reach its projected targets.
Wave Four Leads to an XRP Correction After reaching $1.18, XRP entered wave four, which represented the most detailed correction in the entire pattern. This phase completed both a standard ABC correction and an internal five-sub-wave structure at the same time.
Within the ABC pattern, sub-wave A pulled the price from $1.18 down to $1.12. Sub-wave B then lifted XRP back to $1.16, while sub-wave C finished the correction by bringing the price down to $1.06 on July 13.
At the same time, the internal five-wave structure within wave four also ended at $1.06 on July 13, with the fifth internal sub-wave marking the end of the correction.
Short-Term XRP Price Targets Wave five began from the $1.06 low and now forms in five sub-waves. The first sub-wave lifted XRP from $1.06 to $1.13 by July 15 before the market entered the current second sub-wave correction. The pullback has taken the price back to around $1.09 at press time, a decline of about $0.04 from the $1.13 high.
The $1.09 area has now become an important support zone because it closely matches the horizontal reference level at $1.09957.
As long as XRP holds above this area, the current fifth-wave structure remains valid. However, if the price falls below the wave four low of $1.06, the bullish Elliott Wave count would no longer apply, and a more bearish outlook would become the leading scenario.
If the correction around $1.09 ends as expected, the next move could take XRP to $1.17 during sub-wave three. That could be followed by a pullback to $1.14 in sub-wave four before the final fifth sub-wave targets the 1.0 Fibonacci extension at $1.23062.
If buying momentum continues after that, the next upside target sits at the 1.618 Fibonacci extension of $1.33924. Under the strongest bullish scenario, the current fifth-wave structure could extend to $1.40.
While the bullish Elliott Wave count remains the main outlook, the same price action also supports a valid bearish interpretation without breaking any of Elliott Wave theory’s main rules. Under that view, the current structure could still lead to another move lower instead of continuing higher.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP) came under renewed selling pressure during the second half of the week after staging a modest recovery earlier in the week. BTC trades below $63,600 on Friday, while ETH slips below $1,860 after facing rejection at key resistance levels. Meanwhile, XRP continues to hold above a crucial support zone, keeping its recovery outlook intact.
Bitcoin extends correction after facing rejection from 50-day EMABitcoin price trades at $63,557 on Friday, retaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath the key exponential moving averages (EMAs). BTC is capped first by a nearby horizontal resistance at $64,004, followed by the 50-day EMA at $65,039, while the 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $68,339 and $74,359 sit higher overhead, reinforcing the downside skew.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 hints at neutral momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive but fading, suggesting that bullish attempts are losing traction under these structural ceilings.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the horizontal level of $64,004, ahead of the 50-day EMA at $65,039, which forms the next cap for any recovery attempt. Above there, the 100-day EMA at $68,339 and the 200-day EMA at $74,359 define a broader resistance band, with a more distant horizontal barrier at $84,410 marking a medium-term upside objective only if the pair can reclaim and hold above the clustered moving averages. With no nearby technical supports defined in this dataset, any pullback from current levels would leave price reliant on emerging demand rather than established chart floors.
Ethereum fails to close above the 100-day EMAEthereum price trades at $1,852 on Friday, holding above the 50-day EMA at $1,811 while still capped below the 100-day EMA at $1,943. This alignment hints at a neutral-to-bullish near-term bias, with price trying to build a base but facing a broader corrective structure under the higher EMAs at $1,943 and $2,188. The RSI at 58 stays in positive territory without being overbought, while the MACD remains above zero but is easing, suggesting that upside momentum is constructive yet not aggressive.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA near $1,943, followed by the horizontal barrier at $2,000, before the longer-term 200-day EMA at $2,188 reinforces a broader supply zone.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA at $1,811, with a deeper structural floor only coming in at the horizontal level around $1,385. As long as ETH holds above the 50-day EMA, dips are likely to attract buying interest, but a sustained break above $1,943 would be needed to unlock a more decisive bullish phase toward the $2,000 region.
XRP support holds strongXRP trades at $1.09 on Friday, keeping a bearish near-term bias as price remains decisively below the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs at $1.15, $1.24 and $1.45, respectively. XRP remains within a broader downward channel, with spot trading above the channel top near $1.03. The RSI at 45 sits in neutral territory, while the MACD is marginally positive, hinting at modest stabilization rather than a sustained bullish reversal, with these key EMAs capping the topside.
On the downside, immediate support is clustered around the channel top at $1.03, a key level that could prevent a deeper slide in the prevailing downtrend.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 50-day EMA at $1.15, followed by the 100-day EMA at $1.24 and the horizontal barrier at $1.30; above there, the 200-day EMA at $1.45 and the distant horizontal line at $1.90 define a broader supply zone that would only come into play if XRP can decisively break out of its current bearish structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Cryptocurrency prices FAQs Token launches influence demand and adoption among market participants. Listings on crypto exchanges deepen the liquidity for an asset and add new participants to an asset’s network. This is typically bullish for a digital asset.
A hack is an event in which an attacker captures a large volume of the asset from a DeFi bridge or hot wallet of an exchange or any other crypto platform via exploits, bugs or other methods. The exploiter then transfers these tokens out of the exchange platforms to ultimately sell or swap the assets for other cryptocurrencies or stablecoins. Such events often involve an en masse panic triggering a sell-off in the affected assets.
Macroeconomic events like the US Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates influence crypto assets mainly through the direct impact they have on the US Dollar. An increase in interest rate typically negatively influences Bitcoin and altcoin prices, and vice versa. If the US Dollar index declines, risk assets and associated leverage for trading gets cheaper, in turn driving crypto prices higher.
Halvings are typically considered bullish events as they slash the block reward in half for miners, constricting the supply of the asset. At consistent demand if the supply reduces, the asset’s price climbs.
Large Wallets Pull Nearly 90,000 ETH From Coinbase PrimeA cluster of newly created wallets has withdrawn a combined 89,396 $ETH, valued at roughly $164.9 million, from Coinbase Prime over the past three days, according to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain. The latest batch alone accounted for 20,000 $ETH, worth approximately $37.7 million.
The pattern is drawing attention because the wallets involved were created shortly before each withdrawal, a behaviour that analysts often associate with institutional players setting up fresh custody addresses rather than routine retail transfers. Large withdrawals from centralized exchanges like Coinbase typically suggest accumulation strategies by major holders, possibly in anticipation of price moves or to shift assets to decentralised wallets for security or staking purposes.
The latest transactions suggest that whale activity is increasing just as Ethereum begins recovering from its recent correction. Supporting that narrative, Binance's Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has climbed to its highest level in nearly three months, reflecting sustained spot buying rather than a rally driven purely by leveraged futures traders.
Abraxas Capital Adds to Its ETH PositionAbraxas Capital has also been active. The fund recently withdrew an additional 8,452 $ETH, worth around $16 million, from Binance and Bybit, continuing a months-long pattern of exchange outflows. Pulling Ethereum off two separate exchanges suggests Abraxas wants those tokens in cold storage or a self-custodied wallet, not on a trading desk.
Earlier in 2025, Abraxas reportedly accumulated over $477 million in ETH through a series of purchases, partially financed by borrowing stablecoins. The firm has continued that strategy into 2026, and if Abraxas is genuinely trimming Bitcoin exposure to build Ethereum positions, it joins a growing chorus of institutional capital that has been warming to Ethereum's ecosystem developments.
The broader context matters too. The U.S. government moved nearly $300 million in Ethereum to Coinbase Prime earlier this week, yet private whale wallets have continued accumulating in parallel, suggesting demand is absorbing available supply. Whether the current wave of outflows reflects genuine institutional conviction or simple wallet reorganisation remains unconfirmed, but the scale and frequency of transfers is keeping market participants alert.
Sources:
Crypto Briefing: Abraxas Capital deposits $40M in Bitcoin to Kraken, pulls $15M in Ethereum off exchanges
The Coin Republic: US Moves Nearly $300M in ETH and BTC, But Whales Keep Buying
TradingView: Ethereum Price Breaks $1,900 as Whales Fuel Next ETH Rally
Another Friday is upon us, bringing another Bitcoin and Ethereum options expiry event as spot markets have made some progress.
Around 19,500 Bitcoin options contracts will expire on Friday, July 17, with a notional value of roughly $1.23 billion. This expiry is much smaller than usual events, so it is unlikely to have any impact on spot markets.
Crypto markets have gained later in the week following cooler-than-expected US inflation data, but have lost those gains by Friday.
Bitcoin Options Expiry This week’s batch of Bitcoin options contracts has a put/call ratio of 0.87, meaning that sellers of long (call) contracts and short (put) contracts are almost evenly matched. Max pain is around $62,500, which is lower than current spot prices, so some will be out of the money on expiry.
Open interest (OI), or the value or number of Bitcoin options contracts yet to expire, remains highest at the $70,000 strike price on Deribit, with $1.6 billion, but short sellers still have $1.1 billion in OI at $60,000. Total BTC options OI across all exchanges has ticked up a little to $30 billion, according to Coinglass.
“Puts continue to trade at a premium to calls across all major tenors, although the magnitude of that premium has become increasingly uniform,” said crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live this week.
This suggests that overall, the market is less panicked about an immediate crash than before, though people still pay a bit more for “drop protection” than for “rise bets” — just not as extremely as they did recently.
“The proportion of large-scale bullish trades continued to increase this week, primarily consisting of short-term bull spreads.”
Meanwhile, Deribit said, “This floods the market with liquidity and volatility, creating prime conditions for trading short-dated options on Deribit.”
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This floods the market with liquidity and volatility, creating prime conditions for… pic.twitter.com/OlYg6LQsls
— Deribit (@DeribitOfficial) July 16, 2026
In addition to today’s tiny batch of Bitcoin options, around 131,000 Ethereum contracts are expiring, with a notional value of $242 million, a max pain of $1,750, and a put/call ratio of 1.5.
Total ETH options OI across all exchanges is low at around $4.8 billion. This brings the total notional value of crypto options expirations to around $1.4 billion, a very small event.
Spot Market Outlook Crypto markets bounced to a mid-week high of $2.3 trillion, but those gains had started to erode by the end of the week.
Bitcoin has fallen around 2% from its intraday high of $64,800 to $63,300 during the Friday morning Asian trading session. It appears to be heading for the weekly resistance area, which is around $62,000.
Ether has also broken down from its six-week high in an almost 4% decline to around $1,850 at the time of writing.
The semiconductor sector has been hit by sell-offs, with Kimi K3 sparking concerns over AI valuations and chip spending.
The semiconductor sector is under pressure, and investors are reassessing AI-related trades. Moonshot AI claims its Kimi K3 model can compete with models from OpenAI and Anthropic, sparking renewed market concerns over AI firms' valuations and the outlook for chip spending. Despite the sell-off in chip stocks, the overall market breadth remains healthy; the recent moves are more likely a reflection of capital rotating out of the semiconductor sector rather than a broad market pullback.
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Amid the closure of South Korean stock markets, SK Hynix’s ADR premium narrowed by 4 percentage points, and a crypto whale’s convergence portfolio swung to a profit of $340,000.
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, after the South Korean stock market closed, SK Hynix (SKHY) ADR (US-listed) on Hyperliquid continued to decline, currently trading at $148.5, with a 24-hour drop of around 10.5%; during the same period, South Korean-listed SK Hynix (SKHX) traded at 1,134 won, down about 8.9%. Calculated based on the ratio of 0.1 underlying Korean shares per SKHY ADS, the current ADR premium is around 30.8%, narrowing by roughly 4 percentage points from yesterday. The steeper decline of SKHY compared to SKHX has further narrowed the spread between the two. The previously tracked whale wallet 0x257 still maintains a convergence trade of "long SKHX, short SKHY", with total bilateral positions of around $7.893 million and a net floating profit of approximately $343,000: SKHX: 2,903 long positions with 10x isolated leverage, position value of about $3.288 million, average entry price of $1,196, floating loss of around $186,000, return rate of roughly -53.4%; SKHY: 31,014 short positions with 10x isolated leverage, position value of about $4.605 million, average entry price of $165.5, floating profit of around $529,000, return rate of approximately 103.0%. The funding fee structure remains bilateral. The hourly funding rate for SKHX is around -0.00303%, while for SKHY it is approximately 0.00185%; under the current portfolio, both the SKHX long position and SKHY short position are funding fee recipients, meaning the whale is expected to collect a total net of around $185 per hour.
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SK Group Chairman responds to SK Hynix's stock price plunge: Avoid frequent trading and hold for the long term.
SK Group Chairman and Korea Chamber of Commerce and Industry Chairman Choi Tae-won responded to the sharp plunge in SK Hynix’s stock price, saying that while he cannot predict SK Hynix’s share price movement next month, investors should avoid frequent trading, as long-term holding may be more conducive to preserving assets. Choi believes that as the AI industry develops, demand for memory will continue to expand. He noted that AI is currently like a "4-year-old child," and as it matures into a full-fledged industry, it will inevitably require more memory, with related demand potentially growing exponentially. He also pointed out that SK Hynix’s stock had risen rapidly earlier, leading to a sharp pullback when market expectations shifted, adding that prices that surge too quickly sometimes need adjustments to align with reality. When discussing South Korea’s AI industry strategy, Choi stated that South Korea cannot compete with China on cost nor surpass the U.S. in model quality, so it should build infrastructure, develop applications suited to domestic needs, and explore niche markets, with a long-term shift from exporting memory chips to exporting computing power and "intelligence."
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Institutions: U.S. corporate executives are offloading stocks at a nearly record pace.
US corporate executives are offloading stocks at the second-fastest pace in over two decades. For some investors, this is a classic warning sign, as it signals that those with the deepest insight into a company’s operations are taking a cautious stance on the current market. Data from EPFR Global Market Intelligence shows that in the first half of 2026, US corporate insiders collectively sold $776 billion worth of stocks, a 20% increase from the same period last year. Over the past 20+ years, only 2021 saw larger sell-offs, when the market was fueled by massive pandemic-era stimulus funds. EPFR analysts including Winston Chua wrote in a report: “Insider trading activity indicates that at current valuation levels, corporate executives have no strong willingness to increase their stock holdings.” Additionally, insider buying activity remains sluggish. In the first half of 2026, insiders purchased just $69 billion worth of company stock, barely above the seven-year low of $67 billion set in the same period last year. (Jin10)
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US semiconductor, storage, and optical communication stocks extended their pre-market losses, with SanDisk and Applied Materials both falling more than 6%.
According to BIT (bit.com) market data, US semiconductor stocks were broadly lower in pre-market trading. Applied Materials fell 6.10%, Lam Research dropped 5.46%, TSMC declined 4.70%, KLA slipped 4.68%, Arm and Intel both fell 4.52%, AMD dropped 4.42%, Micron Technology fell 4.24%, and Nvidia was down 2.95%. The storage sector led losses: SanDisk fell 6.10%, Western Digital dropped 5.75%, Seagate Technology declined 5.63%, Micron Technology slipped 4.24%, and SK Hynix fell 3.49%. Optical communication concept stocks plunged collectively: Coherent fell 6.26%, Applied Optoelectronics dropped 6.00%, Credo declined 5.76%, Corning slipped 5.51%, Ciena fell 5.17%, and Astera Labs was down 5.08%.
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TL;DR U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $79.15 million in net inflows on July 16, according to SoSoValue. BlackRock’s IBIT led all Bitcoin ETFs with $33.44 million in fresh inflows. Spot Ethereum ETFs recorded $28.04 million in total net outflows during the same trading session. Bitwise’s ETHW posted the largest single-day inflow among Ethereum ETFs at $2.28 million. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) returned to positive territory on July 16, recording $79.15 million in net inflows, even as spot Ethereum ETFs continued to face investor withdrawals. The latest data from SoSoValue shows BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led Bitcoin fund inflows with $33.44 million, while Bitwise’s ETHW posted the largest inflow among Ethereum funds despite the sector finishing the day with an overall $28.04 million net outflow.
According to SoSoValue data, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded total net inflows of USD 79.15 million on July 16, led by BlackRock’s IBIT with USD 33.44 million. Spot Ethereum ETFs posted total net outflows of USD 28.04 million, although Bitwise’s ETHW recorded the largest… pic.twitter.com/jgejDWUYgs
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) July 17, 2026
The mixed performance underscores how institutional investors continue to favor Bitcoin exposure while remaining more cautious on Ethereum after several weeks of uneven ETF demand.
BlackRock Leads Bitcoin ETF Recovery According to SoSoValue data, the July 16 session saw Bitcoin ETFs attract fresh capital after a volatile stretch that has featured alternating days of inflows and outflows throughout July. BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for the largest share of new investments, adding $33.44 million, helping the sector finish the day with a net gain of $79.15 million.
The accompanying SoSoValue chart shows Bitcoin ETF assets standing at approximately $77.72 billion, with the daily inflow occurring as Bitcoin traded around the $64,000 mark.
Although the latest inflow is modest compared with the billion-dollar sessions seen earlier in the ETF market’s history, it suggests institutional demand has not disappeared despite recent market consolidation. Recent trading sessions have been characterized by rapidly shifting investor sentiment as macroeconomic uncertainty and crypto-specific developments continue to influence fund flows.
Ethereum ETFs Remain Under Pressure While Bitcoin products attracted fresh investment, Ethereum ETFs moved in the opposite direction despite a good market day for Ethereum the day before.
The group posted a combined $28.04 million in net outflows for the day, extending the uneven pattern that has defined Ethereum fund performance in recent weeks.
Despite the overall decline, Bitwise’s ETHW stood out by recording the day’s largest individual inflow at $2.28 million, suggesting that selective investors continue accumulating exposure even as broader sentiment toward Ethereum funds remains cautious.
The divergence between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs highlights how institutional capital is currently flowing unevenly across digital assets, with Bitcoin continuing to attract relatively stronger demand.
ETF Flows Remain a Closely Watched Market Indicator Spot ETF activity has become one of the crypto market’s most closely monitored indicators since the products launched, offering insight into institutional appetite for digital assets.
While one day’s inflows do not establish a long-term trend, analysts often view sustained ETF demand as a sign of growing investor confidence because these products provide regulated exposure to cryptocurrencies through traditional brokerage accounts.
BlackRock remains the world’s largest asset manager, and IBIT has consistently ranked among the most actively traded spot Bitcoin ETFs since its launch. Continued inflows into the fund are frequently interpreted as evidence that institutional participation remains resilient despite short-term price volatility.
Investors will now be watching whether the latest inflows develop into a broader recovery after weeks of fluctuating demand.
Earlier this month, Bitcoin ETFs experienced several sessions of significant outflows before returning to positive territory on multiple occasions, reflecting an increasingly volatile institutional landscape rather than a sustained buying or selling trend. Ethereum ETFs have likewise alternated between inflows and outflows, although recent sessions have generally shown weaker momentum than their Bitcoin counterparts.
Key Takeaways ETH surged more than 5% following favorable CPI numbers before retracing from $1,930 back to approximately $1,850 Critical support established at $1,850, with analysts targeting $2,000 as the next resistance level Cascading liquidations of leveraged long positions intensified the downward correction after bullish momentum faded Large holders withdrew approximately $165M in ETH from Coinbase Prime across a three-day period Geopolitical concerns including Middle East tensions and climbing oil prices are pressuring markets Ethereum experienced a brief surge past $1,930—marking its highest point in recent weeks—after the release of softer US inflation figures, only to slide back toward $1,850 as market participants secured gains and geopolitical concerns resurfaced.
Ethereum (ETH) Price According to CoinGecko statistics, ETH reached a daily peak of approximately $1,931 on July 15, representing its most robust performance in several weeks. During the current trading session, the asset declined roughly 3.5%, while maintaining a seven-day gain exceeding 4%.
Multiple catalysts fueled the initial price surge. Softening employment figures from the United States increased speculation about potential Federal Reserve interest rate reductions, boosting demand for higher-risk investments. Additionally, spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds broke their outflow pattern, with BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust documenting renewed capital inflows around mid-July.
When ETH broke through the $1,800–$1,840 resistance zone, bearish traders were compelled to exit their positions. This forced covering propelled ETH momentarily beyond $1,900 before upward momentum dissipated.
Geopolitical Headwinds Emerge Escalating tensions between the United States and Iran sparked a widespread flight to safety across financial markets. Increasing petroleum prices reignited inflationary worries, diminishing expectations for imminent Fed policy easing. Yields on US Treasury securities also climbed higher, reducing the appeal of speculative assets.
BREAKING: US stock market futures extend losses as the US announces its sixth consecutive night of strikes on Iran. pic.twitter.com/yrMCawP0Yn
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) July 17, 2026
Given that significant portions of the rally were fueled by leverage, the correction proved swift. Ethereum dropped beneath $1,880, compelling bullish traders to exit their positions and driving the price back into the mid-$1,800 range.
From an on-chain perspective, analyst Ali Charts highlighted that ETH has successfully reclaimed the 0.8 MVRV Pricing Band as a foundation—a technical configuration that has historically preceded advances toward the Realized Price, presently positioned at $2,245. According to Ali Charts, this behavior has demonstrated consistency throughout the past six years.
Ethereum has followed the same pattern for years.
Every time it reclaims the 0.8 MVRV Pricing Band as support, it has gone on to rally toward—or even above—its Realized Price.
That pattern has repeated consistently over the past six years.
After briefly trading below the 0.8… https://t.co/LNkygeXO5n pic.twitter.com/N5gKQPhy2o
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) July 16, 2026
Large Holders Increase Positions Data from Lookonchain revealed substantial ETH withdrawals from trading platforms by major investors. Throughout a 72-hour window, seven freshly established wallets extracted a combined 89,396 ETH—valued at approximately $164.88M—from Coinbase Prime. Such exchange exodus activity generally indicates accumulation behavior by sophisticated investors.
Market analyst Ted Pillows characterized the pullback as a constructive consolidation phase. “Provided Ethereum maintains its position above the $1,850 threshold, the subsequent price movement should target $2,000.” Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe framed the current market conditions as favorable for accumulation, stating “Significantly more upside potential remains for this asset.”
Critical support zones to monitor on the downside include $1,823 and the $1,750–$1,785 range. A decisive breach below $1,850 support would redirect attention toward these lower price levels.
The anticipated Glamsterdam network upgrade, designed to enhance blockchain scalability, has been postponed to late Q3, leaving ETH without significant near-term technical catalysts.
After years of lagging behind Bitcoin, altcoins may finally be approaching a turning point. Several market indicators are beginning to align, with Ethereum sitting at the center of the discussion. Analysts say the next major move in the ETH/BTC chart, along with improving macro conditions, could determine whether altcoin season finally see a broader recovery.
Here are four scenarios that could shape the next altcoin season.
Scenario 1: Ethereum Finally Breaks Out Against BitcoinEthereum (ETH) has been underperforming Bitcoin since December 2021, but that trend is now approaching a critical level.
According to one market analyst:
ETH/BTC is testing long-term resistance around 0.028.Ethereum bottomed against Bitcoin in April 2025, nearly 15 months ago.A similar pattern appeared in 2019 before Ethereum broke higher in early 2021 and triggered the last major altcoin rally.Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that Ethereum has posted its first meaningful move against Bitcoin in over a year. He expects a short consolidation before another leg higher, although a strong Bitcoin rally could temporarily delay altcoin outperformance.
Great move on $ETH vs. $BTC and it's the first real upwards move in over a year.#Altcoins have suffered a lot and a ton of people will likely still have PTSD from it.
However, in the short-term, I think $ETH vs. $BTC might be consolidating and correcting for a bit.
Why?
I… pic.twitter.com/QTTrDBPiMa
— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) July 16, 2026 Scenario 2: Softer Inflation Keeps Risk Assets MovingThe latest U.S. CPI report added another positive signal for crypto markets.
Recent data showed:
Core inflation posted its biggest decline in more than four years.Expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike dropped sharply.Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold and silver all rallied following the inflation report.Lower inflation improves the chances of easier monetary policy, creating a more supportive environment for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Scenario 3: Liquidity Starts Supporting Crypto AgainAnother factor the analyst noted is the global liquidity.
Japan’s M2 money supply has historically led Bitcoin moves by roughly 84 days.The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is testing resistance, which could support additional liquidity if the dollar weakens.Improving liquidity has often coincided with stronger crypto performance in previous cycles.If those trends continue, the second half of 2026 could provide a stronger backdrop for digital assets.
Scenario 4: Altcoins Begin Catching UpBitcoin (BTC) has rallied nearly 660% from its 2022 lows, while Ethereum has only recently started reclaiming lost ground. That gap has left most altcoins well behind.
The analyst also points to improving internal market data.
Altcoins vs Bitcoin have recovered roughly 23% since December.On the top, altcoins outside the top 10 bottomed in February and have rebounded around 17%.Meanwhile, the “Others vs Bitcoin” chart is beginning to resemble Ethereum’s breakout pattern.According to the analysis, Bitcoin may still lead the market higher first, but Ethereum’s breakout against Bitcoin could ultimately determine whether crypto finally enters a full-fledged altcoin season rather than another Bitcoin-only rally.
Story Ends Here
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Gate DEX announced its full integration with Robinhood Chain, becoming one of the first mainstream exchange onchain gateways to support the ecosystem. This feature covers core scenarios such as asset discovery, wallet management, onchain trading, cross-chain interaction, and market tracking, providing users with a more complete and efficient Web3 experience for exploring emerging onchain ecosystems, and further expanding Gate DEX’s multi-chain layout and infrastructure capabilities. For a smoother experience, please update the Gate App to v8.27.0 or above.
As the onchain gateway of the Gate ecosystem, Gate DEX integrates wallet, cross-chain, trading, airdrops, Earn, and DApps, continuously building an open and interconnected full-scope Web3 ecosystem. With the rapid development of emerging public chains, users’ demand for asset discovery, project exploration, and onchain interaction continues to increase. By supporting Robinhood Chain, Gate DEX further connects emerging onchain ecosystems, providing users with a more convenient entry point to popular assets and innovative applications.
In terms of asset discovery, Gate’s main platform Alpha has newly added support for the display and trading of Robinhood Chain ecosystem assets, and has integrated ecosystem launch platforms such as Noxa.fun and Bankr. As an important exploration gateway for emerging assets on Gate, Alpha will connect users with popular assets and innovative projects in the Robinhood Chain ecosystem, helping users discover onchain opportunities more efficiently and improving the efficiency of exploring emerging ecosystem assets.
In terms of asset management and onchain interaction, Gate Wallet has newly added support for Robinhood Chain, enabling functions such as asset display, transfers, and DApp interaction, helping users manage onchain assets more conveniently. At the same time, Gate DEX Swap supports single-chain swaps and cross-chain swaps on the network, improving asset circulation efficiency.
In terms of trading and market services, Gate DEX professional trading supports Robinhood Chain market order trading, while the market module also supports the display of related tokens, helping users view ecosystem asset information and participate in onchain trading more conveniently. In addition, the chain scanning function has newly added support for this ecosystem and covers projects such as Noxa.fun and Bankr, helping users discover onchain hotspots promptly.
The integration of Robinhood Chain expands the boundaries of Gate DEX’s multi-chain ecosystem and enhances cross-chain interoperability. Relying on Across and LayerZero cross-chain solutions, Gate DEX enables asset circulation among BSC, Ethereum, Base, and Robinhood Chain, providing users with a more efficient and smooth multi-chain interaction experience.
Currently, Gate DEX has formed comprehensive onchain service capabilities covering asset discovery, wallet management, trading and swaps, cross-chain connections, and ecosystem applications. This ecosystem expansion is an important measure by Gate to continuously strengthen Web3 infrastructure and connect high-quality public chain ecosystems, and also reflects the platform’s continued investment in multi-chain connectivity and onchain product innovation. In the future, Gate will continue to deepen the development of the Gate DEX ecosystem, accelerate connections with more high-quality onchain networks and innovative applications, promote the continuous upgrading of Web3 product capabilities, and create a more open, efficient, and convenient onchain experience for global users.
How to Explore the Robinhood Chain Ecosystem?
Please update to Gate App v8.27.0 or above to access the new features.
About Gate Gate, founded in 2013 by Dr. Han, is one of the world’s leading cryptocurrency and integrated financial services platforms. Serving over 58 million users globally, it supports trading across 4,800+ digital assets and 12,500+ stock assets, while providing access to a comprehensive range of TradFi assets, including metals, stocks, indices, forex, and commodities, delivering users a one-stop, multi-asset trading experience and blockchain-related services. As an industry benchmark, Gate was among the first platforms to implement 100% Proof of Reserves. Its ecosystem includes Gate Wallet, Gate Ventures, Gate for AI Agent, and a wide range of products and services.
For more information, please visit: Website | X | Telegram | LinkedIn| Instagram | YouTube
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Ethereum advanced past $1,820 for the first time in nine months, reigniting discussions among analysts about a potential market trend reversal. The move follows a prolonged period of lower lows and repeated failed recoveries, as traders watch for signals that could validate a stronger upward shift.
Key support and resistance levels come into focusOver recent sessions, Ethereum reclaimed two significant price levels: $1,750 and $1,820. Traders view these levels as essential markers for any upcoming market structure changes.
Daan Crypto Trades, a well-known cryptocurrency analyst, stated that ETH has flipped the $1,750 level from resistance back into support. He pointed out that a similar pattern occurred during Ethereum’s 2025 recovery phase, though he cautioned that current market conditions differ from that period.
Daan Crypto Trades highlighted that Ethereum has reclaimed a horizontal level that previously acted as resistance during its downtrend. He emphasized that this marks the first support-to-resistance reclaim since the beginning of the current bearish cycle, drawing a comparison to the 2025 rally but warning not to expect an identical scenario.
Turning prior resistance into support is a classic technical analysis signal often interpreted as a potential trend change. Traders are now closely monitoring whether ETH can solidify its position above these levels or if it will falter once again.
Support and resistance analysis is a fundamental approach in cryptocurrency trading. These levels act as psychological markers where buying or selling interest may increase, influencing price movement in either direction.
$1,820 reclaim stirs bottom formation debateMerlijn The Trader, another widely followed analyst, pointed to Ethereum’s ability to regain the $1,820 zone, which the asset lost in June. He noted that this is the first such move in nine months, making the current technical structure distinct from previous breakdowns, when Ethereum failed to reclaim lost lows during declines.
According to Merlijn The Trader, Ethereum had not previously reclaimed a lost low during the recent downtrend, yet did so for the first time in July, which he considered a significant shift from its typical bearish behavior since the last cycle peak.
In earlier periods of weakness, ETH broke through support and continued declining without quickly surmounting former breakdown zones. This time, regaining the $1,820 area has brought renewed speculation about whether a firmer bottom is in place for the asset.
Still, analysts cautioned that reclaiming a lost level does not necessarily confirm a broader turnaround. Sustained movement above the key $1,820 level on longer time frames is required for greater confidence among market participants.
$2,100 resistance remains the next major hurdleWith the $1,750 and $1,820 levels now acting as support, attention has shifted to Ethereum’s next major resistance zone at $2,100. Daan Crypto Trades identified this horizontal level as a key barrier through several previous market cycles.
A successful push above $2,100 could reinforce the case for continued recovery and potentially open the door to higher price targets. Alternatively, failure to clear this resistance may leave ETH range-bound or vulnerable to new selling pressure.
Risk thresholds remain well-defined. For Daan, a drop below $1,750 would threaten the bullish thesis, while Merlijn warned that a sustained three-day close under $1,820 would invalidate his outlook.
Support LevelResistance LevelBullish InvalidationAnalyst$1,750$2,100Drop below $1,750Daan Crypto Trades$1,820$2,1003-day close below $1,820Merlijn The TraderEthereum is an open-source, decentralized blockchain known for its smart contract capabilities, enabling a broad range of decentralized applications (dApps) and services worldwide. Its price trends are closely followed as a benchmark for the broader cryptocurrency market.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
This $28 million ether market bet aims to profit from pure market chaos. (Unsplash)Summary
A trader placed a roughly $28 million notional long straddle on ether, buying 7,500 calls and 7,500 puts at a $1,875 strike that expire July 24.The bet is a high-conviction wager on sharp ether price volatility in either direction, with profit driven by big moves rather than by a specific price target.The trader paid about $852,000 in premium, which is the maximum loss if ether stays range-bound.A massive bullish ether volatility bet hit the tape this week, designed to pay off handsomely from sharp price swings in either direction by July 24.
The trade, a monstrous 15,000-contract "long straddle," involved the simultaneous purchase of 7,500 calls and 7,500 puts at the $1,875 strike price level, expiring on July 24, according to data source Laevitas. It’s like buying two lottery tickets at once: One that pays out if prices explode higher, and another that pays if they collapse. So any massive move, either way, can make money.
The trade, therefore, represents a high-conviction bet that ether's price is likely to move rapidly in either direction over the next nine days. As of this writing, ether changed hands at $1,825, down 2% since midnight UTC, according to CoinDesk data. Prices recently hit highs above $1,900, having put in a low near $1,500 in late June.
Profit from volatility and not price directionThe straddle buyer is essentially saying, "I don't know where the price is going, but I know we aren't staying here, and there will be a big move in either direction."
It shows that major participants are not just "long-only" or "short-only" speculators; they are increasingly treating volatility as a separate asset class and using complex options Greeks, specifically vega (sensitivity to volatility) and gamma (sensitivity to price acceleration), to extract profit from market turbulence.
Inside the $28 million straddleNotional value represents the total market value of the underlying asset controlled by the trade, rather than the cash paid to enter it.
The straddle involved the purchase of 15,000 contracts, with each contract representing 1 ETH. The notional value, therefore, is calculated by multiplying 15,000 by the market price of ETH on the day of execution. That amount comes to roughly $28 million.
According to Laevitas, the trader paid a premium of $852,000 to establish this $28 million notional straddle. That premium represents the maximum amount at risk if ether remains range-bound or quiet through the July 24 expiry, leading to a "time-decay" in option value.
Now, turning to the maximum possible gain: it is theoretically unlimited. This stems from the fact that volatility itself has no upper bound, as asset prices can, in principle, move dramatically in either direction.
CaveatWhile the prospect of profiting from a move in either direction is enticing, the high cost of entry and the relentless decay of time value serve as a stark warning.
Without a professional-grade risk plan and a deep mastery of the "Greeks," an investor’s capital can evaporate just as quickly as the market’s volatility.
Former Ethereum Foundation researcher Francesco D’Amato has joined independent protocol research group Ethlabs, extending the movement of core Ethereum developers into organizations operating outside the Foundation.
Summary
Former Ethereum Foundation researcher Francesco D’Amato has joined Ethlabs after five years to continue Ethereum protocol research. D’Amato said he will keep working on faster Ethereum finality while helping Ethlabs expand its protocol research team. The move adds to a growing number of independent Ethereum organizations formed by former Foundation researchers following the Foundation’s restructuring. According to a statement shared by Ethereum Foundation researcher Francesco D’Amato on X, he has left the Ethereum Foundation after five years to join Ethlabs, a nonprofit protocol research organization established by former Foundation researchers to continue Ethereum core development.
Status update: I am moving from the Ethereum Foundation to Ethlabs @ethlabs_org, joining the team to accelerate protocol work in the age of Ethereum adoption.
In 5 years at EF Research, I have worked on research and specification of a wide range of Protocol R&D: mev, consensus,…
— Francesco (@fradamt) July 16, 2026 During his time at EF Research, D’Amato said he worked across several protocol research areas, including maximal extractable value (MEV), consensus mechanisms, data availability sampling, and execution layer pricing. He described the decision to leave as difficult but said the current period of change made it the right moment for “a new beginning.”
“Leaving that behind is hard, but after 5 years this time of great change seems right for a new beginning,” D’Amato wrote.
He added that, for the first time since beginning Ethereum protocol research, he believes there is “a credible shot” for core research to advance outside the Ethereum Foundation.
At Ethlabs, he said he will work alongside former EF colleagues to expand the organization’s protocol research efforts, bring new researchers into the ecosystem, and continue contributing to Ethereum’s long-term technical roadmap.
Among his priorities, D’Amato said he intends to keep working on reducing Ethereum’s transaction finality time, stating that he plans to focus much of his effort on helping Ethereum “finalize much faster, as soon as possible.”
Ethlabs expands its research team Ethlabs launched in June as an independent nonprofit research organization founded by former Ethereum Foundation researchers Ansgar Dietrichs, Barnabé Monnot, Caspar Schwarz Schilling, Josh Rudolf, and Julian Ma. The organization said its research spans settlement speed, network capacity, native asset issuance, cross-chain interoperability, and Ethereum’s monetary design.
Backed by Ethereum co-founder Joe Lubin, Bitmine, SharpLink, Anchorage, Octant, SNZ, and other Ethereum ecosystem participants, Ethlabs has said its research priorities are tied to growing institutional use of Ethereum for stablecoins, tokenized assets, investment products, and AI-driven commerce.
The group has also stated that research decisions remain independent despite corporate funding, with contributions managed through an external grants administrator.
When the organization launched, executive director Ansgar Dietrichs said Ethlabs was created to advance Ethereum’s core technology while providing a long-term home for protocol researchers outside the Ethereum Foundation. Lubin described the organization as another stewardship body working alongside the Foundation and other independent contributors to Ethereum’s development.
Ethereum development spreads beyond the Foundation D’Amato’s move comes as the Ethereum Foundation continues reshaping its internal structure and as more protocol work shifts to independent organizations.
Last month, the Foundation reduced its workforce by 54 positions, or about 20%, following a review of its staffing and long-term responsibilities. It later dissolved its Protocol Support team while reorganizing its remaining work into dedicated divisions covering protocol development, users, community, access, and institutional activity.
The restructuring has also led to the creation of new Ethereum-focused organizations. Earlier this month, former Foundation employees Mo Jalil, Oskar Thorén, and Aaryamann Challani launched EthSystems, a for-profit company building confidential infrastructure for regulated financial institutions on Ethereum with backing from Bitmine, SharpLink, and Lubin.
Robinhood Crypto has rapidly crossed 1 million active addresses on its newly launched Ethereum Layer 2 network, according to data from blockchain staking platform Everstake. The achievement marks a significant milestone for Robinhood, a widely used brokerage that recently entered the blockchain space by launching its own Layer 2 chain.
Active address milestone highlights rapid adoptionBlockchain analytics firm Everstake reported that Robinhood Crypto now counts over 1 million active addresses since the network’s launch. These active addresses represent unique wallets that have interacted with Robinhood Chain’s ecosystem in the initial weeks of its public availability.
Active address metrics are widely regarded as an indicator of real user engagement beyond simple wallet creation. Sustained growth in this metric often points to strong organic demand on a new network.
Weiss Crypto, a digital asset research firm, also noted Robinhood Chain’s quick rise among new blockchain projects. The platform highlighted that, within just two weeks, the network joined the ranks of the busiest launches in the Layer 2 segment.
Robinhood Chain has become one of the busiest new networks in the crypto industry, reaching more than 1 million addresses and processing over 38 million transactions within days of its launch.
This momentum suggests that the platform’s entry into the blockchain ecosystem has attracted considerable attention from users and developers alike.
Transaction volume and DEX activity surgeAccording to Everstake, Robinhood Crypto’s Ethereum Layer 2 chain has processed 68.7 million transactions since its launch. These transactions encompass transfers, swaps, and activity from decentralized applications built on the network.
Weiss Crypto previously identified more than 38 million transactions in just the first phase, indicating ongoing and growing usage over time. The continued uptick highlights consistent engagement rather than a short burst of early activity.
The latest data shows 68.7 million transactions completed, with decentralized exchange (DEX) volume climbing to $2.4 billion as users actively interact across the network.
This transaction volume translates into strong activity on decentralized exchanges, with reported DEX volume now totaling $2.4 billion. Higher DEX trading typically reflects greater liquidity and escalating user demand on the protocol.
The relationship between transaction count and DEX volume points to a network where users are not simply establishing wallets but are also participating in active trading and application use.
MetricReported ValueActive addresses1 million+Transactions68.7 millionDEX volume$2.4 billionLayer 2 networks drive Ethereum scalingEverstake described Robinhood Chain as a rising force among Ethereum Layer 2 solutions, which are designed to boost transaction throughput and reduce congestion on the Ethereum mainnet.
Layer 2 systems process transactions off the main Ethereum chain before ultimately settling them on the core blockchain, enabling faster and cheaper activity while expanding overall capacity.
Growth in user metrics like active addresses, transaction counts, and trading volumes are widely seen as positive signals for the broader Ethereum ecosystem, supporting greater scalability and adoption of decentralized finance applications.
Observers now turn to whether Robinhood Crypto can maintain its pace of new user growth and trading activity, potentially establishing itself as a central player in the evolving landscape of Layer 2 blockchain infrastructure.
Mini dictionary: Robinhood Crypto is the cryptocurrency division of Robinhood, a major U.S.-based brokerage known for commission-free stock trading. Its Layer 2 blockchain, Robinhood Chain, extends decentralized crypto services to users while reducing transaction fees and improving network efficiency by connecting to Ethereum.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Ethereum News: BlackRock, JPMorgan Builds Make ETH a Wall Street Asset, Tom Lee Argues
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In the lastest Ethereum news, Fundstrat’s Tom Lee is arguing that Ethereum’s next major move has nothing to do with crypto-native speculation, and everything to do with institutional capital that is already deployed and building.
Writing in Bitmine’s July Chairman’s message, Lee pointed to BlackRock BUIDL, JPMorgan MONY, and Robinhood Chain as concrete evidence that Wall Street has moved from observation to construction on Ethereum’s rails. The ETH price currently sits near $1,880, about 60% below its 2025 peak near $5,000.
The gap between that peak and current levels is the central question Lee addresses. His read is that it reflects a regime change, not a structural ceiling, the first era of ICOs, NFTs, ETFs, and stablecoins has run its course, and the institutions now building on Ethereum represent a fundamentally different demand base with longer time horizons and larger capital pools.
Discover: The Best Token Presales
Ethereum News: BlackRock, JPMorgan, and the Tokenization Build-OutLee’s institutional case rests on names that move markets in traditional finance. BlackRock BUIDL, the asset manager’s tokenized Treasury fund, now holds roughly $2.6 billion and has earned Moody’s top money-market rating (Moody’s cited).
JPMorgan MONY extended the bank’s tokenization push that began with Onyx in 2020, adding another institutional-grade vehicle to the Ethereum ecosystem.
Electric Capital data cited by Lee puts nearly 6,000 developers on the EVM stack, ranking Ethereum first among all chains for new builders, a metric that matters more to institutions evaluating long-term platform risk than short-term price momentum.
🧵
1/
Bitmine released its July Chairman's Message titled
"ETH is the Cure for the Uncanny Valley of Wealth"
– Two exponential tailwinds for Ethereum
– The crypto headwinds of 2026 are ending
– Bitmine primed for next bull cycle
Linkhttps://t.co/RHYkprmhCD
— Bitmine (NYSE-BMNR) $ETH (@BitMNR) July 16, 2026 Wall Street is building on Ethereum, Lee argues in the Chairman’s message, contrasting 2022’s crypto bear-market backdrop with continued institution-led development.
In 2025 and 2026, institutional crypto infrastructure has continued to expand even as ETH price fell sharply from its cycle highs. That divergence between on-chain institutional activity and spot price is the core of his thesis. For more on how BlackRock’s ETF flows are reinforcing this dynamic, see this analysis of BlackRock ETF inflows and their ETH price implications.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Robinhood Chain: ETH as Settlement MoneyRobinhood Chain, launched July 1 on Arbitrum, handed Lee one of his more striking data points. Within two weeks of going live, it ranked third among all networks by DEX volume at about $811 million daily, briefly surpassing Ethereum itself according to DefiLlama. Ethereum has since reclaimed that position, and cumulative Robinhood Chain volume has crossed $1 billion.
In the Chairman’s message news, Lee argues that Robinhood Chain’s use of ETH (as described in his discussion of the network’s fees and how it settles) makes it a meaningful Ethereum use case.
Source: Robinhood Chain TVL / DefiLlamaThe counterargument is equally straightforward. Artemis CEO Jon Ma has noted that Robinhood Chain’s volume spike is predominantly meme coin-driven, not institutional flows.
And the fee economics cut against Lee’s framing, Robinhood Chain pays Ethereum’s base layer almost nothing in fees. High DEX volume on an Arbitrum-based chain does not translate 1-for-1 into ETH fee burn at the L1 level.
The Amazon Analogy, and the Conflict It CarriesLee frames the current ETH setup through an Amazon analogy: the stock traded near a split-adjusted $6 for 12 years before climbing to $241 as its total addressable market expanded beyond what early investors could model. He also describes the psychology around sellers at depressed prices.
He also concedes the bearish read directly. ETH has failed twice at the $5,000 level, and skeptics argue that the top of the range could limit upside this cycle.
Source: ETHUSD / TradingviewThe conflict of interest embedded in Lee’s thesis deserves direct acknowledgment. Bitmine’s latest weekly disclosure shows 5.77 million ETH, about 4.8% of the 120.7 million total supply. Lee is among the biggest beneficiaries if institutional adoption confirms his thesis.
That does not make his argument wrong, but it reframes every price target he issues as coming from a holder with an extraordinary financial stake in the outcome.
The institutional infrastructure Lee cites is real. BlackRock BUIDL’s Moody’s rating, JPMorgan’s MONY fund, and Robinhood Chain’s early volume numbers are all verifiable facts, not projections.
Whether they are sufficient to drive ETH from $1,880 back through $5,000 and beyond depends on whether institutional capital deepens from product launch into sustained secondary market demand, a step that none of these programs has yet demonstrated at scale.
Trades Ethereum, and Don’t Miss Out on Our $1,000 USDT Airdrop on ByBit
Crypto Winter Over?In his latest message to shareholders, Lee said that the “crypto spring is here.”
He cited the research of Tom DeMark, a popular technical analyst and Bitmine Immersion’s timing advisor for cryptocurrency acquisitions, who believes everything is set for a “market bottom” and that the “Ethereum risk-reward is to the upside.”
DeMark’s model sees Ethereum today as analogous to the S&P 500 in 1987, projecting around $2,200 for the cryptocurrency in August
Lee said Ethereum’s future market is primed for “exponential” growth, adding that it’s transitioning to its 2.0 phase.
“I think people are rage-quitting at the bottom for Ethereum here,” the Wall Street analyst said.
Lee said that, unlike the 2022 bear market, “Wall Street is now building on Ethereum” and accelerating tokenization efforts on the blockchain.
Earlier this week, Lee said that Ethereum is “grossly undervalued” compared to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), gold and stocks.
BitMine Records Unrealized LossesBitmine holds 5.77 million ETH worth $10.2 billion, the largest ETH treasury in the world and the second-largest cryptocurrency treasury overall behind Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR).
The company posted $46.5 million in revenue for the quarter ended May 31, a 22x jump from a year earlier. On the other hand, it reported a $9 billion loss as falling ETH prices hit the value of its holdings on paper.
Price Action: At the time of writing, ETH was exchanging hands at $1,828.40, down 4.72% over the last 24 hours, according to data from Benzinga Pro. The coin has gained 3.22% over the week, but is down nearly 40% year-to-date.
BitMine shares were down 5.92% in Friday’s pre-market trading after closing 2.22% lower at $23.02 during Thursday’s regular session.
The BMNR stock exhibited weaker short-, medium-, and long-term price trends, according to Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings
Photo courtesy: Zakharchuk on Shutterstock
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Dogecoin (DOGE) price is down by 3.17% today, July 17, to trade at $0.071 at the time of writing. The drop comes despite T.Rowe launching an active crypto ETF on July 16 that offers exposure to multiple cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin.
While this will be the fourth ETF for the biggest meme coin by market cap, SoSoValue data shows that institutions are not impressed, with DOGE ETFs recording zero inflows since June 17.
T.Rowe Debuts DOGE ETF With 2.6M Allocation T.Rowe, an asset manager with $1.8 trillion in assets under management, launched the first active crypto ETF on July 16. That ETF holds Dogecoin among other crypto assets.
This crypto ETF launched with $15 million in seed capital from T.Rowe, with Dogecoin getting a weighting of 1.28%. That means the ETF holds 2.6 million DOGE tokens valued at $192,000.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, T.Rowe is a “legacy stock picker” and the addition of Dogecoin to this ETF alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum suggests the meme coin is getting some credibility from Wall Street.
Still, SoSoValue shows that there have been no inflows to Dogecoin ETFs for one month between June 17 and July 17.
In fact, Dogecoin ETFs have recorded $871,000 in outflows in July, with these outflows coinciding with a $1.2 billion sell-off in the meme coin market.
The lack of retail and institutional demand comes as the price of Dogecoin drops by 54% from its January high of $0.156 to trade at $0.071 on July 17.
Dogecoin Price Signals a Bullish Divergence as Bears Test Crucial Support Dogecoin has printed a bullish divergence on the daily chart because the AO bars that are negative are shrinking despite the price dropping.
These green AO bars support a bullish long-term Dogecoin price forecast because they show that bears are losing their grip.
But the volume bars that have been red for three straight days also show that the selling pressure is still higher than the buying pressure.
This selling pressure could pull the price of Dogecoin below the support of $0.070 to $0.060.
However, if Dogecoin remains above $0.070, it will confirm a double-bottom pattern, that could cause a 10% gain to the July 4 high of $0.079.
DOGE/USDT: 1-day Chart (Source: TradingView) The ADX line that is dropping also suggests that the trend around Dogecoin is weak and the price might hover near this support of $0.070 unless either buyers or sellers return.
Futures Data Signals Weak Demand for Dogecoin Data from Coinglass shows that futures volumes for Dogecoin have dropped by 18% today, July 17, to $775 million at the time of writing. The open interest has also dropped by 11% to $1.01 billion.
Dogecoin Futures Volumes (Source: Coinglass) These drops suggest that futures traders are reducing their positions on Dogecoin as they become less confident about where the price is heading
This drop could be coming from long buyers who are either closing their positions or being wiped out through liquidations.
The exiting long buyers have led to short sellers dominating most of the futures positions in Dogecoin, with the long/short ratio dropping to 0.81.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
This is a general announcement. Products and services referred to here may not be available in your region. Fellow Binancians, Starting at approximately 2026-07-18 20:44 (UTC), Binance will suspend the deposits and withdrawals of token(s) on the Cardano (ADA) network to support its network upgrade and hard fork to ensure the best user experience. The network upgrade and hard fork will take place at approximately 2026-07-18 21:44 (UTC). Please note: The trading of token(s) on the aforementioned network will not be impacted.Binance will handle all technical requirements involved for all users.Deposits and withdrawals for token(s) on the aforementioned network will be reopened once the upgraded network is deemed to be stable. No further announcement will be posted.There may be discrepancies between this original content in English and any translated versions. Please refer to the original English version for the most accurate information, in case any discrepancies arise. For more information, please refer to the announcement from the project team. Thank you for your support! Binance Team 2026-07-17
The @Cardano Foundation has confirmed that Plutus smart contracts can now verify thousands of cryptographic signatures natively on-chain, using BLS12-381 elliptic curve cryptography. The change lowers the cost of large-scale signature checks while keeping execution costs predictable.
How It Works BLS12-381 is a pairing-friendly elliptic curve that allows multiple signatures to be compressed into a single proof. According to Cardano's own improvement proposals, this technology compresses multiple signatures into a single proof, reducing computational expense and eliminating reliance on off-chain verification. Previously, running such checks off-chain added transaction overhead and placed extra computational burden on the party constructing the transaction.
Pairing-friendly curves enable a large number of cryptographic primitives that are essential for the scalability of Cardano. The BLS12-381 support in Plutus was formalised through CIP-0381, which extended the Plutus language with basic operations over the curve. A further proposal, CIP-0133, adds multi-scalar multiplication (MSM) as a built-in, a key operation for verifying pairing-based proofs at scale. Incorporating this function directly is expected to streamline cryptographic operations, reduce transaction costs, and maintain the integrity of existing tools.
What It Means in Practice The upgrade is part of Protocol Version 11 and is expected to benefit multi-signature custody platforms, cross-chain bridges, and governance-heavy DeFi protocols. By handling signature aggregation natively within the Plutus runtime, developers no longer need to rely on external computation or accept the higher fees that come with larger transaction sizes when off-chain workarounds are used.
Public key aggregation in the BLS multi-signature scheme is one direct beneficiary. It is a popular scheme that allows many signatures to be aggregated into a common message, so that verifying the short multi-signature is fast. That property is particularly useful for cross-chain bridge designs and on-chain governance systems where large validator sets must co-sign transactions.
The practical impact will ultimately depend on how quickly developers integrate the new primitives into production applications. Wider adoption across the Cardano ecosystem will determine whether the cryptographic upgrade translates into measurable gains in throughput and user costs.
Sources
CIP-0381: Plutus Support for Pairings over BLS12-381, Cardano Foundation
CIP-0133: Plutus Support for Multi-Scalar Multiplication over BLS12-381, Cardano Foundation
Unlocking More Opportunities with Plutus V3, Input Output
Key Takeaways Cardano is currently trading in the $0.161–$0.163 range, experiencing slight downward pressure as short positions dominate market sentiment Large holders controlling 100,000–100 million ADA tokens have amassed 25.65 billion ADA, marking the highest accumulation rate since February 2023 Network upgrade Van Rossem is slated for July 18 activation, introducing reduced transaction fees and enhanced smart contract capabilities Derivatives market shows futures open interest climbing to $421–$445 million, while the long-to-short ratio of 0.58 indicates bearish sentiment Critical liquidity zones at $0.160 and $0.170 represent pivotal levels that may determine ADA’s upcoming price trajectory Cardano (ADA) is currently hovering between $0.161 and $0.163 as of July 16–17, reflecting a modest decline of approximately 1.39% amid bearish positioning by short sellers in anticipation of an upcoming network enhancement.
Cardano (ADA) Price On July 16, ADA experienced price action ranging from a session low of $0.1611 to a peak of $0.1664, representing a retreat from early July’s high near the $0.195 mark.
However, beneath the surface of this price decline, institutional-scale investors are actively accumulating. Wallet addresses containing between 100,000 and 100 million ADA tokens have expanded their holdings to 25.65 billion ADA — a threshold not witnessed since February 2023.
Source: Santiment Retail participants present a contrasting narrative. Wallets holding fewer than 100 ADA own approximately 0.7% less compared to four months prior, revealing a divergence between institutional and retail investor behavior.
Futures market indicators suggest near-term bearish positioning. According to CoinGlass, ADA’s weighted funding rate registered at -0.0067%, indicating short holders were compensating long position traders. The long-to-short ratio measured 0.58, while open interest experienced a 4% uptick to approximately $421–$445 million.
Van Rossem Hard Fork: What’s Coming The Van Rossem hard fork, which received approval from Cardano’s governance structure on July 13, is scheduled to go live on July 18. Intersect, the member-driven organization governing the Cardano ecosystem, has advised all infrastructure operators to implement software updates prior to the transition.
UPDATE
CARDANO RATIFIES THE VAN ROSSEM HARD FORK 😱😱😱@Cardano has officially ratified the Van Rossem hard fork, with activation scheduled for July 18, 2026, at 21:45 UTC following approval from DReps, SPOs, and the Constitutional Committee.
The upgrade enhances Plutus smart… pic.twitter.com/0BFWoVY35X
— Mintern (@MinswapIntern) July 16, 2026
Van Rossem will deliver enhanced Plutus capabilities and reduced execution expenses, resulting in more cost-effective transactions and decentralized applications on the Cardano network. The upgrade also establishes the foundation for Leios, a throughput enhancement targeted for deployment before the conclusion of 2026 designed to expand transaction processing capacity.
From a technical perspective, ADA is positioned beneath the Murrey Math resistance threshold at $0.1709 on daily timeframes. The Relative Strength Index registers between 44–46.92, indicating momentum remains in neutral-to-moderately-bearish territory. The MACD indicator displays minimal positive momentum.
Key Price Levels to Watch Resistance barriers are positioned at $0.173 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement level), $0.179 (50-day EMA), and a more concentrated zone spanning $0.195 to $0.207. Support infrastructure exists near $0.150, with the June 25 bottom at $0.1382 positioned further below.
CoinGlass’s liquidation heatmap reveals a concentrated liquidity pool between $0.160 and $0.161, positioned immediately below the current trading range. An additional substantial cluster appears around $0.170. A breakdown below $0.160 may catalyze long position liquidations and drive ADA toward $0.1465. Conversely, a breakout above $0.170 could compel short sellers to exit positions and facilitate a price recovery.
Market analyst Celal Kucuker shared on X that he anticipates Cardano will achieve a new all-time high of $5, referencing a bullish divergence on the weekly RSI and characterizing the present zone as a bottom formation. He projected a parabolic rally initiating from current price levels.
Cardano will hit a new ATH at $5.
I expect the parabolic rally to begin.
We’re in the bottom zone.
There’s a bullish divergence on the weekly RSI.$ADA 🚀 pic.twitter.com/gpFvsLL7P5
— Celal Kucuker (@CelalKucuker) July 13, 2026
ADA continues trading beneath its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day EMAs positioned at $0.179, $0.208, and $0.276 respectively, confirming the overarching downtrend persists ahead of the July 18 fork implementation.
Cardano (ADA) is currently trading between $0.161 and $0.163, reflecting a slight decline of around 1.4% as short positions drive market sentiment ahead of a major network upgrade set for July 18.
Institutional accumulation contrasts retail behaviorADA traded in a range between $0.1611 and $0.1664 during the latest session, pulling back from early July’s high near $0.195. However, notable accumulation is taking place among large holders. Wallets holding between 100,000 and 100 million ADA have increased their combined balance to 25.65 billion ADA, a level last seen in February 2023. This cohort of investors, often considered “whales,” appears to be taking advantage of the current price dip to expand their positions.
In contrast, retail investors are demonstrating less interest in accumulation. Data shows that wallets with fewer than 100 ADA now own approximately 0.7% less than they did four months ago. This suggests a divergence between institutional and smaller holders regarding the outlook for Cardano.
Large Cardano investors controlling 100,000 to 100 million ADA have now amassed 25.65 billion ADA, marking the highest accumulation rate since February 2023, while retail participation continues to decline.
On the derivatives side, CoinGlass reports show ADA’s weighted funding rate at -0.0067%, indicating that short sellers are paying long traders. The long-to-short ratio stands at 0.58, signaling bearish sentiment, while open interest in ADA futures has risen by about 4% to between $421 million and $445 million.
Van Rossem upgrade scheduled for July 18The next significant event for the Cardano network is the activation of the Van Rossem hard fork, which was formally approved on July 13. Intersect, the Cardano ecosystem’s member-based governance body, has directed all infrastructure operators to complete necessary software updates before the scheduled upgrade. The Van Rossem update is set to go live at 21:45 UTC on July 18.
Van Rossem will bring reduced transaction fees and upgraded Plutus smart contract features. These improvements are designed to make decentralized applications and network transactions more efficient and affordable. In addition, the upgrade sets the groundwork for a future performance enhancement known as Leios, aimed at boosting Cardano’s transaction processing capacity by the end of 2026.
Mini dictionary: Intersect, established in 2023, is a member-driven governance organization designed to provide decentralized and collaborative oversight for Cardano network operations and upgrades.
The Van Rossem hard fork will introduce enhancements to the Plutus smart contract platform and lower execution costs, paving the way for more scalable applications on Cardano in the future.
Key technical levels and analyst perspectivesADA is currently trading just below the Murrey Math resistance level at $0.1709 on the daily chart. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is in the range of 44.0 to 46.9, reflecting neutral to moderately bearish momentum. The MACD also indicates minimal positive movement at this stage.
Critical resistance areas lie at $0.173 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), $0.179 (50-day EMA), and a higher band between $0.195 and $0.207. Nearest support stands at $0.150, with a previous cycle low at $0.1382 from June 25. A concentrated liquidity pool is visible in the $0.160–$0.161 range, with substantial interest also clustered near $0.170. Prices falling below $0.160 could trigger long position liquidations, pushing ADA to around $0.1465. A move above $0.170 may lead to a short squeeze and a potential price recovery.
LevelTypePriceImmediate ResistanceMurrey Math$0.1709ResistanceFibonacci (23.6%)$0.173Resistance50-day EMA$0.179ResistanceRange High$0.195 – $0.207SupportNearest Support$0.150SupportJune Low$0.1382Market analyst Celal Kucuker recently shared his outlook on X, stating that he believes Cardano could reach a new all-time high of $5, pointing to a bullish divergence visible on the weekly RSI. He views the present price zone as a potential bottom and expects a strong rally to begin from current levels.
Despite these optimistic projections, ADA remains below its 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day exponential moving averages, located at $0.179, $0.208, and $0.276 respectively, indicating that the wider downtrend is still intact ahead of the Van Rossem upgrade.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has reassured the community that a major announcement involving Midnight is still on the way.
His comments came after rumors emerged that the highly anticipated Japanese partnership he teased in June had collapsed following a partnership between Japanese financial giant SBI Group and the Solana Foundation.
SBI-Solana Partnership Sparks Speculation As previously reported, SBI Group partnered with the Solana Foundation as part of efforts to position Japan as a leading hub for institutional on-chain finance in Asia. Consequently, some Cardano community members questioned whether SBI was the same company Hoskinson had referenced several weeks earlier.
One community member suggested that the newly announced SBI–Solana partnership could have been the deal Hoskinson had previously hinted at, arguing that the agreement may have fallen through before SBI ultimately chose Solana.
The speculation quickly gained traction because Hoskinson had earlier revealed that Midnight was close to securing a significant partnership in Japan.
Hoskinson Separates SBI Partnership From Midnight Deal However, Hoskinson swiftly dismissed the rumors and made it clear that the SBI–Solana partnership is unrelated to Midnight.
According to the Cardano founder, the SBI collaboration had “nothing to do” with the agreement he has been discussing. He also stressed that the anticipated announcement is “still pending,” indicating that the rollout remains ongoing rather than being canceled.
Notably, his clarification reassures the Cardano community that the previously teased Japanese initiative has neither been replaced nor abandoned.
This had nothing to do with that deal. ANN still pending
— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) July 14, 2026
Initial Midnight Teaser Hoskinson’s latest remarks refer back to comments he made in June, when he revealed that Midnight secured a significant partnership with a major Japanese company.
At the time, he admitted he was surprised that Cardano had managed to attract such a prominent partner. Although he declined to identify the company, he disclosed that the initiative revolves around NIGHT liquidity in Japan.
Following his latest clarification, the Cardano community continues to await the long-promised announcement.
Why the Midnight Partnership Matters Midnight remains one of the most significant technological developments within the Cardano ecosystem. Designed as a complementary privacy-focused blockchain, it enables organizations to process sensitive financial, enterprise, and regulatory data while preserving the security and transparency of Cardano’s public ledger.
Since its launch, Midnight has already attracted several high-profile partners, including Google and Telegram-related AlphaTON Capital. Consequently, a successful partnership with a major Japanese company could further strengthen Midnight’s institutional credibility and expand its presence in one of Asia’s most important financial markets.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
