Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around $63.40 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The non-yielding Silver declines as a global bond selloff drove the US 10-year Treasury yield up to 4.80%, hitting its highest point since early 2025. This surge in yields reignited market anxieties surrounding stubborn inflation and the possibility of further interest rate increases.
Compounding these inflationary concerns, crude oil prices spiked due to intensifying geopolitical friction between the United States and Iran, which threatens energy supplies out of the Middle East. According to TD Securities, the latest flare-up between the US and Iran is reinforcing the sense that the regional backdrop remains highly unstable. Strategists there argue that the renewed tensions “continue to highlight how flimsy any deal or MoU headlines really are,” underscoring the market’s sensitivity to further disruptions and helping to sustain a risk premium across the energy complex.
Meanwhile, recent economic data from the United States offered a mixed picture for investors. July JOLTS job openings fell short of expectations, landing at 7.27 million. At the same time, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dipped to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in the previous month. While the PMI missed estimates, it stayed comfortably in expansion territory, indicating ongoing strength in the manufacturing domain. Market focus is now shifting to the upcoming ADP employment report and Friday's nonfarm payrolls for clearer signals on the Federal Reserve's rate strategy.
Fed’s Barr keeps hawkish bias as inflation risks keep rate hike option alive Fed’s Barr delivered a slightly more hawkish-than-usual message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 versus a 6.8/10 historical average, underscoring concern that inflation “remains too high” despite a stable labor market and “solid” AI-driven growth. The conditional guidance — favoring steady rates only if there is confidence inflation is moderating, but explicitly flagging a potential rate hike if it does not — reinforces an asymmetric reaction function tilted toward tightening. Overall, the tone signals a low tolerance for renewed price pressures and keeps upside risks for the Dollar intact.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.42 points to 128.86, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This configuration suggests that, while the immediate speech tone was only marginally above the established baseline in the FXS Speechtracker, the broader policy backdrop stays clearly hawkish, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index still signaling a bias that supports the Dollar against lower-yielding currencies.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/USD failed to surpass 1.3675 and started a downside correction. It traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.3570 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil prices started a fresh surge and surpassed $88.00. EUR/USD started consolidating losses above the 1.1550 support. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound struggled near 1.3675 and dipped against the US Dollar. GBP/USD traded below 1.3620 and 1.3600 to enter a short-term bearish zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.3570. The bears pushed the pair toward the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3273 swing low to the 1.3675 high.
The pair even settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). If there are more losses, the pair might find bids near 1.3520.
The first major support could be near 1.3480 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) or the 50% Fib retracement level. A downside break and close below 1.3480 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 1.3425. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.3350.
On the upside, GBP/USD could face resistance near the 1.3580 level. The next major resistance might be 1.3600. A close above 1.3600 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3620. Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.3650.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil prices, the price gained bullish pace, and the bulls could now aim for a move toward the $92.00 level.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
Fed’s Beige Book. US ADP Employment Change for August 2026 – Forecast 48K, versus 44K previous.
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Australian GDP growth remained modest in Q2, but did little to challenge expectations for further RBA tightening. With AUD/USD already retracing alongside a firmer US dollar, attention now turns to ISM and NFP for the next directional catalyst.
View related analysis:
AUD/USD, ASX 200: Household Spending Bolsters RBA Hike Bets
AUD/USD Shorts Bear the Brunt of Hot CPI, Renewed RBA Hike Bets
Australian Housing Supply Loses Momentum as Approvals Slide
Australian Business Profits Rebound Ahead of Q2 GDP
Australian GDP Leaves RBA Hike Bets Intact as AUD/USD Eyes US Data
Australian GDP growth remained modest in Q2, but the details and more recent data do little to rule out another RBA hike.
Australia’s economy grew 0.4% q/q in Q2 and 2.1% over the year, a modest pace which hardly screams overheating. Household consumption rose 0.4% q/q and 1.8% y/y, while GDP per capita was effectively flat for the quarter but remained 0.7% higher over the year. Domestic final demand contributed 0.3 percentage points to growth, with household consumption contributing 0.2 points. Discretionary consumption increased 1.4%, while net trade added 0.1 percentage points and inventories subtracted 0.1.
Source: ABS
GDP Keeps RBA Hike Risk in Play
On its own, the GDP report probably does little to force the RBA’s hand. But it also provides little reason to dismiss another hike when viewed alongside more recent data. July household spending accelerated 1.1% m/m and 7% y/y, while trimmed mean inflation rose 0.5% m/m and remained at 3.6% y/y. There were also signs of domestic price pressure within the national accounts, with the domestic final demand deflator rising 0.8% q/q and real unit labour costs increasing 0.9%.
Money markets have continued to reprice toward two additional RBA hikes over the coming year, with one-year OIS rising to around 4.80% against the current 4.35% cash rate. That leaves the market increasingly aligned with the view that policy may need to become more restrictive if the recent strength in spending and inflation persists.
With the July data suggesting momentum strengthened after the June quarter ended, the broader data flow continues to keep another RBA hike firmly in play — and that remains a supportive backdrop for the Australian dollar.
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
Despite growing calls for an RBA hike, the Aussie has continued to retrace in line with my bias, thanks to the rebound in the US dollar. But that is no major issue when you consider that AUD/USD rallied for eight weeks before the US dollar rebound saw 72c cap gains. AUD/USD is now sitting just beneath its 10-day EMA, although we could also allow for a move down to its 20-day EMA (0.7116), near last week’s VPOC (volume point of control).
Whether it can break down to 71c or the 0.7088 high may come down to the ISM and NFP reports. But for now, I suspect bulls are seeking evidence of swing lows around support to rejoin the dominant trend, which could leave the intraday charts better suited to bears in the near term.
Note the slight bullish divergence on the 1-hour chart on the RSI (2), so perhaps a cheeky bounce towards the weekly pivot point (0.7168) could be in order)
Source: ICE, TradingView
AUD/USD NFP Volatility Outweighs Directional Bias
A quick look at AUD/USD around NFP shows that volatility, rather than direction, is the clearer historical tendency. The pair has averaged a 1.25% high-to-low range on NFP day, although the median is lower at around 0.97%, suggesting the extreme April 2025 move has skewed the average higher. Volatility also tends to remain relatively elevated in the sessions immediately following the release.
Source: LSEG
Average and median returns themselves are generally small and mixed either side of NFP, providing little evidence of a reliable directional bias. That is useful information in itself: historically, NFP has been more dependable as a volatility event for AUD/USD than a directional one. The unusually large decline in April 2025 also stands out as an obvious tail event, so I would be wary of drawing too much from the average return alone.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7829 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7809 and 6.7238 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near a two-week low around $4,330 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure on elevated Treasury yields and a stronger US Dollar (USD).
US Treasury yields rose to their highest since January 2025 in the previous session as escalating tensions in the Middle East stoked inflation fears and triggered a global bond selloff. Bloomberg reported that the US and Iran traded a new round of attacks Tuesday, with American forces striking Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz and Tehran saying it had launched a retaliatory operation targeting US interests across the region.
It’s worth noting that rising interest rates and higher yields on Treasuries typically weigh on gold as they raise the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.
“We’re seeing some technical selling pressure... bond yields globally are at highs not seen in years. So that’s all working to pressure the gold market,” said Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange.
Additionally, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium might contribute to the yellow metal’s downside. Warsh warned last week that policymakers may need to tighten again if inflation fails to move convincingly towards 2%. Traders raise their bets on a September rate hike after Warsh’s comments.
The attention will shift to the US jobs data for August, which will be released later on Friday. This report could offer some clues about whether the Fed raises interest rates in September. Any signs of weakening in the US labour market could drag the Greenback lower and underpin the USD-denominated commodity price in the near term.
Gold positioning holds firm as Fed chair Warsh turns more hawkishAccording to TD Securities, Fed Chair Warsh "struck a more hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole speech as he acknowledged the inflation concerns." Analysts at the bank note that, despite this shift in rhetoric, positioning in Gold has remained resilient, with investors seemingly looking through the renewed focus on inflation and potential future policy tightening.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD stays bearish as spot holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day middle band, suggesting rallies are being capped by these overlapping dynamic barriers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.28 hovers just below its neutral midpoint, hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet signaling a convincing recovery.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-day SMA around $4,365, followed by the Bollinger middle band near $4,445, while a stronger bullish extension would target the upper Bollinger band at $4,695. On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at $4,192 provides the next noteworthy support zone, and a daily close below it would open the door to a deeper corrective leg toward lower psychological levels.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The shared currency edges lower, capped by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1633, amid rising geopolitical tensions and escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, prompting investors to buy the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1590, down 0.25%.
The EUR/USD retreats below the 200-day SMA towards the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, the first support area. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) I above 50, bullish but aims lower, a signal that sellers are gaining strength.
For a bearish continuation, the EUR/USD must clear the 100-day SMA. This will expose the August 13 swing low of 1.1511, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1494. Below, the next support is the 1.1400 psychological level, before the trend resumes lower highs and lower lows.
Buyers must push the pair above the 200-day SMA, ahead of the 1.1700 psychological level. A decisive breakout will expose the May 6 high at 1.1796.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
In Friday's Gold Trading Alert, I wrote: "The breakdown below the rising support line and then below $4,500 will likely be the final two nails in gold's temporary coffin."
Friday's close hammered in the first, and yesterday I noted that the day's close would decide the second.
It decided. Gold closed Monday at $4,481.50, below $4,500, and it trades near $4,426 as I write this, down again. Both nails are in, and the word temporary still means what it meant: gold remains in a long-term bull market, and the following months are still likely to repeat what we saw in late 2012 and 2013 before that bull market resumes.
Silver answered in one sessionYesterday, I wrote: "The immediate-term outperformance in silver is rarely true strength – it's usually the sign that the market wants to move lower, not higher."
This morning, silver is falling at roughly twice gold's pace. The outperformance resolved the way it usually does, within a single session, and silver's breakout invalidation is now the thing to watch on a closing basis.
For now, silver still remains above (precisely: at) its declining resistance line. Once silver breaks back below it, we’re likely to see a powerful slide.
Additionally, please note the following:
Silver already broke below its rising support line, which is a bearish indicationOn Friday, silver topped exactly at the intersection of two support/resistance lines. This technique proved to be very useful once again.Here’s why the support is most likely to fail:
Yesterday was the third day in a row when the USD Index closed above its declining resistance line. This means that the breakout was confirmed. The USD Index is also moving higher today. All this means that the decline that we saw in August is – in all likelihood – over.
The opposite is therefore most likely the case for the precious metals sector. This makes sense also from the fundamental point of view.
The war restarted, and Gold went downThis is the part of today's session that tells you the most.
The US and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in roughly a month. American forces targeted Iranian rocket launchers on Larak Island after detecting preparations to deploy mines in the strait, Tehran responded with missile and drone attacks on US facilities in Jordan and the UAE, Iranian media reported a tanker struck two mines and a bulk carrier was seized near Bandar Abbas, and President Trump extended military threats to Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export hub. Brent moved back above $90.
And gold is down more than a percent.
A month ago, headlines like these produced hundred-dollar rallies in gold within hours. Today the shooting resumed, oil spiked, and the metal that is supposed to feed on exactly this fell instead. When a market stops responding to its best-case news, the news is not the story. The channel is: oil up means inflation up, inflation up means the Fed stays hawkish, and a hawkish Fed with a confirmed dollar breakout outweighs any war premium. The safe-haven bid did not weaken. It left.
Where this leaves usBoth nails are in, silver delivered on its warning overnight, the miners decline as well. The dollar sits on a confirmed breakout while oil re-arms the channel.
A war restarted this morning, and gold went down. That is the entire story of this market in one sentence.
August manufacturing came in slightly below expectations. July job openings were roughly in line with forecasts. Neither number was soft enough to take the September trade apart. The data is not settling the argument. It is leaving the door open for Warsh to walk through.
ADP employment data arrives Wednesday. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is the larger test. Economists expect 56,000 jobs added in August. A firm report with stronger wages keeps the 68% odds where they are and gold sellers stay in control. A soft number forces a repricing and gives the metal room to find a floor.
What to Watch Friday’s payrolls report decides whether the 68% September odds hold or crack. ADP lands Wednesday. Warsh and Barr both made the same call this week and crude above $90 WTI is not giving either one a reason to soften it. The 10-year is near 4.8%. The dollar is at 99.70. Gold dropped $113 Tuesday with a war bid sitting right in front of it. That tells you which trade the market is running.
Gold is pressing into the intermediate retracement zone at $4,319.60 to $4,216.06 with the swing bottom at $4,311.04 right inside it. The 50-day moving average sits at $4,216.08 below that. The 200-day break from Friday started this move. Tuesday’s $113 drop accelerated it. The retracement zone is the first place value buyers showed up on the last pullback. Below it, the broader support area runs down to $3,942.10.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Failure Below $4,311 A decline below the recent higher swing low of $4,311 would signal a reversal of that advance and a failure of support at the trendline. That would increase the chance of a test of the prior lower swing high and the top of a consolidation bottom range at $4,203, along with the 50-day moving average near $4,216. Falling back below the uptrend line would put gold in a more vulnerable position, as it would begin to negate recent bullish price behavior that included the reclaim of key moving averages and a downtrend line two weeks ago.
Upside Case If Buyers Return If gold can continue to hold above support at $4,311 and then strengthen, another leg up toward the next higher target zone near $4,774 comes into play. Initial signs of strength would appear above the swing high of $4,450 and then the 200-day moving average, currently at $4,532. Given the decisive three-day decline in gold, however, support looks likely to be tested further before there are signs of buyers. Until they appear, Tuesday’s break below the moving averages still frames the near-term risk: the same confluence that absorbed the selloff must hold, or the August recovery begins to unwind.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
That’s the view of Ned Davis Research Chief Alternative Strategist John LaForge.
Granted, he didn’t say “forever,” but that’s the implication of his comments on Kitco News.
“I think prices peak when we learn how to deal with the debt situation. The longer we let it go, and we don’t pay this stuff back, and we keep piling all these debts up, the higher gold prices can go.”
Given that nobody is willing to do what it takes to “deal with the debt situation,” gold prices will ostensibly go up forever, or until the fiat system finally implodes.
“All I know is the trend is up until we deal with government debt,” LaForge said. “I think we can still see multiple years of higher prices because I don’t get the sense at all that, globally, politicians and leaders want to deal with it.”
He’s right.
Here in the U.S., the government continues to spend over half a billion every single month despite $40 trillion in outstanding debt. So far in fiscal 2026, Uncle Sam has spent $6.28 trillion. That’s a 3.3 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
A 3.3 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts?
DOGE seemed promising, but once the headlines faded, spending continued unabated. The “Big Beautiful Bill” cut some spending but added more.
So, despite some non-specific talk about “spending cuts,” there seems to be little to no commitment to tackle runaway spending in Congress or the White House. In fact, the powers-that-be constantly find new reasons to spend money, whether it is a crisis at home or a war overseas.
LaForge said he doesn’t see any off-ramp in the future.
“There’s no way to pay this thing beyond just debasing everything. This is the biggest tailwind gold has had.”
In fact, analysts call the pivot from dollar-denominated assets to gold and silver the “debasement trade.”
Even after gold’s meteoric rise of the last couple of years, LaForge said there is still plenty of room to run higher. In fact, he said he thinks we are in the early stages of a broader commodity “super-cycle.”
“We have plenty of room for this thing.”
Central banks apparently see the writing on the wall. They are piling up gold.
LaForge characterized the yellow metal as one of the few “bearer assets” that can be owned outside the credit system. A bearer asset is defined as a financial or digital item that belongs entirely to whoever physically holds or controls it, with no registration or official record of ownership.
That means gold carries no counterparty risk.
“There just aren’t many bearer assets that you as a central bank can hold where everyone in the world pretty much agrees, if you sent them a bar of gold, they’d say, ‘All right, I’ll take payment for that,’” LaForge said.
Could this be a historical moment for gold?
LaForge said he thinks so, saying, “Gold has such a unique time in history.”
“This is the time it’s all coming together.”
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Gold (XAU/USD) price collapses over 2.30% on Tuesday as the Middle East conflict escalates, with the US and Iran exchanging strikes, while US economic data was mixed but moved to the back seat amid geopolitical tensions. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,342 after reaching a high of $4,461.
XAU/USD slides as Hormuz escalation fuels Oil, yields and Fed risksRecently, newswires reported explosions in Southern Iran, while US President Donald Trump confirmed that the US Air Force launched strikes aimed at trimming Tehran’s capabilities to launch missiles and to add sea mines to the Strait of Hormuz, which, according to Trump, “currently has no mines (They have been completely removed or detonated!).“
This pushed US Treasury yields higher, particularly the 10-year benchmark note, which rose nearly four basis points to 4.792%. This is due to the jump in Oil prices, as West Texas Intermediate hit a high of the day near $90.00 per barrel and currently sits with gains of over 4.20%.
Last week, bullion prices edged lower following hawkish remarks by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh at his Jackson Hole speech, in which he reassured that if inflation remains stubbornly high, then the central bank has “work to do.”
That statement triggered a U-turn on money markets. Before Warsh’s speech, the odds for a rate hike at the September meeting were below 40%. At the time of writing, Prime Terminal data indicate a 71% chance of an interest rate increase and a 29% chance of rates remaining unchanged.
Source: Prime TerminalEarlier, US data showed that business activity in the manufacturing sector cooled, as the ISM Manufacturing PMI in August was 54.6, down from 55.6 in July and below estimates of 55.2. Other data included the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for July, which showed steady hiring, with vacancies increasing to 7.217 million, below forecasts of 7.3 million.
Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the release of the Fed’s Beige Book, jobs data, the ISM Services PMI for August, followed by the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold sinks below 100-day SMA, eyes on $4,300From a technical standpoint, the escalation of the US-Iran conflict accelerated Gold’s downtrend. On its way down, XAU/USD breached key support levels, including the $4,400 figure and the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,365, exacerbating a breakout below $4,350.
Of note, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which was bullish, shifted bearish amid a vertical drop, indicating that sellers are gaining momentum.
For a bearish continuation, bullion must achieve a daily close below $4,350. Below is the low of the day (LOD) at $4,326, followed by the $4,300 mark. Once hurdled, the next area of interest is the 50-day SMA at $4,215.
On the other hand, Gold could shift to neutral if the yellow metal clears the 100-day SMA at $4,365, which would open the path to reclaiming $4,400.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.
Limited downside ahead for the Canadian Dollar, but the US-Canada rate gap should keep USD/CAD supported below 1.40 say analysts. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate traded around 1.3902 on Tuesday, recovering from an overnight low near 1.3846.
Scotiabank says the Canadian Dollar continues to hold up well despite volatile Fed expectations and renewed trade uncertainty.
“CAD resilience in the face of volatile Fed expectations and the latest round of trade uncertainty is impressive and reaffirms our view that there is limited downside potential in the CAD currently.”
The bank’s equilibrium estimate has edged up to 1.3920, largely because front-end US-Canada swap spreads have widened.
“Spot has spent the past week trading at or a little below our estimated fair value,” Scotiabank said.
The problem for a stronger Canadian Dollar is still the rate gap.
“Equally, however, scope for gains is curtailed by the wide rate gap.”
Image: USD/CAD 48h chart The Bank of Canada is expected to leave rates unchanged this week, while Friday’s jobs report is forecast by Scotiabank to show employment rising by around 15,000.
Technically, the bank remains neutral.
“The USD closed out last week on a firm note and reversed back through the August bear channel,” although daily and weekly momentum signals remain Dollar-bearish.
Scotiabank sees 1.3980/1.4000 as firm resistance, with support at 1.3845 and 1.3820/25.
That leaves USD/CAD caught in a fairly narrow tactical range: the Dollar can extend its rebound towards the upper 1.39s, but Scotiabank does not see much justification for a sustained break above 1.40 while the Canadian Dollar continues to outperform its fundamental benchmark.
Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.69%+0.84%+0.64%+0.43%+0.05%+1.22%+1.25%EUR-0.69% +0.15%-0.06%-0.26%-0.64%+0.52%+0.55%GBP-0.84%-0.15% -0.20%-0.41%-0.78%+0.37%+0.41%JPY-0.63%+0.06%+0.20% -0.20%-0.58%+0.58%+0.61%CAD-0.43%+0.26%+0.41%+0.21% -0.38%+0.79%+0.82%AUD-0.05%+0.64%+0.79%+0.58%+0.38% +1.17%+1.20%NZD-1.21%-0.52%-0.37%-0.58%-0.78%-1.15% +0.03%CHF-1.24%-0.55%-0.40%-0.61%-0.81%-1.18%-0.03% The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Swiss Franc, where Canadian Dollar made its strongest advance. Data comparing prices today (01/09/2026 16:36 UTC) and daily close on 25/08/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
RBC still sees the gold price grinding towards $5,000 despite the latest selloff, with investor and central-bank flows underpinning its high-conviction view. The Gold price fell sharply again on Tuesday, with our XAU/USD rate around $4,355, down 2.1% on the day after ending August near $4,450.
RBC Capital Markets is sticking with a substantially higher path.
“We remain of the view that gold should spend most of its time in the $4500-5000/oz range for what remains of this year,” RBC said, describing that view as “unchanged and with high conviction”.
By year-end, the bank is “leaning towards our 2026 high scenario ($4929/oz)”, while for 2027 it favours a high scenario averaging $5,296.
That bullish stance survived Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole shock.
“Warsh's Jackson Hole comments did see gold decline, but it's unclear to us if anything for gold has truly changed,” RBC said.
The bank argues that stress in the US Treasury market is actually “a bigger positive for gold, outweighing the potential impact of current elevated yields”.
That claim is being tested now.
Gold dropped to a two-week low on Tuesday as US Treasury yields rose sharply, the Dollar strengthened and markets lifted the probability of a September Fed hike to around 66%. Reuters reported spot gold falling more than 2%.
Investor Flows Keep RBC Bullish The stronger part of RBC's case is the return of actual buying.
“Q3-to-date has seen the tide turn,” the bank said, with gold-backed ETP inflows surging since mid-July and particularly quickly through August.
“All regions have seen positive inflows over the past month,” while RBC expects 208 tonnes of net ETP inflows in 2026.
Central banks remain important too.
“We expect 745 tons of official sector demand this year,” RBC said, with slightly more forecast for 2027.
We saw the first evidence of that renewed investor demand in our recent look at RBC's gold-flow data, when ETF holdings and speculative positioning were already turning higher.
RBC's conclusion is unusually direct:
“Gold did not just fall out of a coconut tree, it exists in the context of concern, uncertainty, and an uneven macro landscape.”
“We still think the $4500-5000/oz range is the sweet spot for gold for the medium term,” with the bank “grinding towards $5000/oz before year-end and higher in 2027.”
At $4,355, that forecast now implies a meaningful rebound.
The next test is whether stronger yields keep forcing liquidation, or whether RBC is right that the Dollar, debt concerns and renewed investor flows have become more important than rates alone.
The week has not been particularly favorable for the euro. Over the last three trading sessions, EUR/USD has declined by nearly 0.5%, once again highlighting a meaningful bearish bias in the short term.
XAU/USD Current Price: $4,345 Fresh United States attacks on Iran fueled speculation about mounting inflationary pressures.The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond surged to its highest in over a year. XAU/USD trades at fresh two-week lows and aims to extend its slump.The US Dollar (USD) accelerates its advance against the precious metal in the American session on Tuesday, following news indicating United States (US) forces launched attacks on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran, as reported by the US Central Command (CENTCOM). Explosions were reported on Qeshm Island, around the Strait of Hormuz, and across southern Iran.
Crude Oil prices soared with the headlines, while bond yields followed through amid prospects of mounting inflationary pressures leading to interest rate hikes. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond surged to its highest since January 2025, currently hovering around 4.79%.
The US decision to strike its rival came after recent attacks on commercial vessels and US personnel in the region. Also, US President Donald Trump was said to be considering a CENTCOM plan for limited attacks aimed at preventing Tehran from rebuilding radar and missile capabilities.
Earlier in the day, the US reported that the manufacturing sector lost some momentum, as the August ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 55.6 in July to 54.6, also missing expectations of 55.2. Additionally, the number of job openings rose slightly to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million in June, according to the JOLTS Job Opening report. The reading also came below expectations of 7.3 million.
XAU/USD Technical Outlook:
In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish, as it holds below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,474.45 and the 100-period SMA at $4,482.54. The metal is still supported by the 200-period SMA at $4,295.85, but downside pressure dominates, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heading firmly south, despite being in oversold territory.
Technical readings in the daily chart support the bearish case as the pair extends its slide below the 100-day SMA at $4,365.54, after failing to recover beyond the 20-day SMA at $4,443.71. The same chart shows that the Momentum indicator has slipped into negative territory, while the RSI pierces its midline, hinting at mounting selling pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA at $4,474.45, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,482.54, where recovery attempts could stall. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the current price area near $4,345.41, ahead of the more significant 200-period SMA at $4,295.85, a break of which would open the door to a deeper corrective leg despite the already oversold momentum backdrop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The Pound Sterling trades sideways versus the US Dollar on Tuesday after a tranche of US economic data was mixed, with business activity dipping in August, while a strong jobs market justified Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish tilt. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3540, down a modest 0.06%. Read More...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.3550, while maintaining bullish bias above 100-day SMAThe GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3545 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium underpin the US dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP). Read More...
British Pound softens to near 1.3550 on geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed betsThe GBP/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3550 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the British Pound (GBP) amid ongoing Middle East tensions and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium. Read More...
Bitcoin (BTC) maintains sideways trading around the immediate $78,000 support on Tuesday. The Crypto King outlook shows signs of cooling after the recent rally above $81,000. However, its downside remains protected, with major moving averages providing support and steady capital inflows absorbing some selling pressure.
Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a neutral-to-bearish technical outlook, trading slightly below $4,400. This marks a 7% drop from its August peak of $4,697 and exerts pressure on support established by the main moving averages.
US JOLTS Job Openings tick upUnited States (US) job openings edged up to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million in June, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release, marginally missing consensus forecasts of 7.3 million.
The BLS also noted that hires and total separations were largely unchanged at 5.1 million, with quits (3.1 million) and layoffs/discharges (1.7 million) showing minimal movement.
JOLTS figures help gauge labor demand in the world’s largest economy. However, the data is a month delayed. Although the increase is slight, it could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likelihood of raising interest rates, especially with inflation still above the 2% target.
Market participants are currently pricing in a 66% probability that the Fed will increase the rates to the 3.75%-4.00% range in September’s review cycle, up from 60% last week and 33% the previous month, according to CME's FedWatch tool.
FedWatch tool | Source: CME GroupCapital inflows surge as Bitcoin stallsCryptocurrency-related funds experienced a notable increase in inflows last week to more than $3.2 billion, their largest weekly intake since October 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest crypto Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), recorded $928 million in inflows last week, building on the previous week’s $1.3 billion and marking its strongest two-week run since October 2025.
“As a result, crypto funds have averaged over $1.3 billion in weekly inflows over the last four weeks, their largest four-week average in ten months,” The Kobeissi Letter highlighted in an X post.
Meanwhile, Gold funds recorded more than $7.3 billion in inflows last week, also their largest uptake in ten months.
Crypto fund inflows | Source: The Kobeissi Letter“Market signals remain healthy overall, with soft derivatives activity, encouraging ETF flows and spot volumes cooling from last week’s extreme levels,” K33 Research said in a weekly market report, adding “BTC is also behaving more like Gold than US equities, with its 90-day Gold correlation at an all-time high and its Nasdaq correlation near yearly lows.”
Technical analysis: Bitcoin tests short-term supportBitcoin trades at $78,251, extending its advance well above the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a firmly bullish near-term bias with layered trend support beneath the price. Momentum remains constructive, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with a still-above-zero line and a fading but positive profile, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69 hovers just below overbought, hinting at strong but maturing upside pressure.
BTC/USDT daily chartOn the downside, initial support lies at the $72,348 region marked by the 200-day EMA, which underpins the broader uptrend, followed by the 50-day EMA at $70,044 and the 100-day EMA at $69,089 as a deeper demand zone if a corrective pullback unfolds.
With no nearby technical resistance in the current dataset on the daily chart, the pair’s topside remains open, and traders will likely monitor price around the immediate $78,000 support area for signs of consolidation, especially as RSI flirts with overbought levels and MACD momentum gradually cools.
Gold technical analysis: XAU slides as support flips into resistanceGold holds a bullish near-term bias as the metal remains above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, clustered between roughly $4,315 and $4,364, suggesting a still-supported uptrend despite the recent pullback.
The descending trendline now runs below the spot price, with its break point around $4,271 acting as an additional structural floor, while the RSI has eased to 48, hinting at consolidative rather than impulsive downside.
At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has retreated into negative territory, reinforcing waning bullish momentum rather than a full trend reversal as long as price holds above these underlying averages.
XAU/USDT daily chartImmediate support lies at the 100-day EMA near $4,364, followed by the 50-day EMA at $4,337 and the 200-day EMA at $4,315, all forming a dense demand zone that could attract dip buyers on further weakness. Below this cluster, the descending trendline break around $4,271 is the next key level to watch, where a daily close under that area would significantly weaken the bullish structure and open the door to a deeper correction.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
Phase 1 initial reaction: Back in 2022 when the Federal Reserve initiated aggressive rate hikes—raising the target rate from 0.08% in Feb-22 to 3.08% in Oct-22 (a 3.00% absolute increase)—gold experienced immediate downside pressure.
Gold closed at $1,908 in Feb-22 (peaking around $1,937 in Mar-22 amid early geopolitical tensions) before dropping to a low of $1,633 in Oct-22.
This represents a decline of 14.4% ($275 drop), illustrating the traditional inverse reaction where higher opportunity costs and yields weigh down non-yielding bullion.
Phase 2: Delayed Real Reaction & Rally (Oct 2022 – Aug 2024)
Despite the Fed continuing to raise rates aggressively to 5.33% by Aug-23 and holding them at terminal levels through Aug-24 (an overall hike of 5.25 percentage points), gold reversed course and rallied sharply. From the Oct-22 bottom of $1,633, gold climbed to $2,503 by Aug-24. This marks a 53.3% rally (a $870 gain) during sustained rate hikes and elevated rates, accumulating a net gain of $607 (+32%) over the entire timeframe (Apr-22 to Aug-24 baseline).
Key takeaway
While interest rate hikes create an immediate downward shock on gold, persistent high rates and yields eventually intensify fiscal pressure by inflating debt servicing costs and government deficits. Market expectations of long-term sovereign debt stress ultimate power a delayed, multi-year bull run in gold.
This dynamic starkly contrasts with the Volcker era of the early 1980s, when extreme interest rates near 20% effectively crushed gold prices long-term without triggering fiscal solvency concerns when government debt level was under control!
The Australian dollar reversed off a multi-year resistance zone after an eight-week advance, leaving U.S. jobs data to set the next move. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the weekly, daily and four-hour charts and explains where the uptrend stays intact and what would signal it is breaking.
In today’s blog we’re reviewing the $XAGUSD wave count shared with members, which highlighted a strong bullish outlook. The Elliott Wave pattern confirmed the move right at the extreme/high‑frequency zone, propelling prices sharply higher.
XAG/USD after completing major correction from all‑time highsSilver peaked earlier this year at 121.503 on January 29, 2026, before entering a six‑month corrective phase that concluded at 3940.68 on July 17, 2026. From that low, Silver rallied to complete wave (4) at 62.548, then turned higher, finishing wave 1 of a new nest. Price has since pulled back in a proposed wave 2, holding against the 62.548 pivot.
The forecast: Completion of wave ((iv)) correctionThe setup identified Silver at a decisive turning point following a corrective pullback from the peak near $67.84. After completing a multi‑wave bullish impulse into wave ((iii))/(v) above $67.00, price action unfolded into a corrective three‑wave (a)‑(b)‑(c) decline, designated as sub‑wave ((iv)).
The projected target zone for wave (c) of ((iv)) was between the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 63.211 and the 161.8% expansion at 61.144. The trade bias was clearly defined as “Turning Up”, with the explicit warning: “We Do Not Recommend Selling.” Traders were instructed to wait for the corrective wave to terminate within or near the target zone before initiating long positions.
The invalidation level was set at 56.614 (wave ((ii)) low), where a break below would negate the bullish structure. See below chart
The after analysisThe follow‑up chart confirms that the wave projection unfolded almost exactly as anticipated (Note: We had some degree adjustments). Wave C of (4) completed squarely within the target zone, bottoming at 62.548—just above the updated invalidation level—before buyers stepped in aggressively.
From the 62.548 floor, Silver launched into a clean 5‑wave micro‑impulse, driving price through $70.00 and topping at 70.739. With Wave 1 complete at 70.739, the market is now undergoing a minor corrective consolidation in Wave 2, proposed as a three‑swing structure, setting the stage for the next upside leg. See chart below
Comparative setup overviewBetween the August 19 “Before” forecast and the August 22 “After” execution, the market transitioned from the tail end of a Wave ((iv)) correction into a fully completed Wave 1 impulse. The initial setup targeted an entry zone between 63.211 and 61.144, which ultimately bottomed cleanly at 62.548.
As the primary trend resumed, the invalidation level was raised from 56.614 to 62.548 to lock in profit protection. The resulting rally drove price to a peak of 70.739, marking a +$8.19 / +13.1% rebound and fully validating the “Right Side” bullish bias.
What’s next for Silver in the coming weeks?As charts progress, the structures and labeling naturally evolve. At the time of writing, wave 2 is proposed to have ended as a flat correction and is now turning higher, with the invalidation level maintained at 62.548. As long as price holds above this pivot, Silver is expected to continue advancing to eventually complete wave (5) of higher degree within wave ((1)). From there, the market would be positioned for a corrective pullback in wave ((2)) against the July lows, before resuming the broader bullish cycle. See chart below
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that positioning in Gold remains resilient despite a more hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh. While the recent rally is seen as premature given lingering inflation concerns and renewed hike pricing for 2027, they argue the broader backdrop has improved and do not foresee material downside as Dollar debasement and uncertain Fed hikes support precious metals.
Yellow metal holds firm post-Jackson Hole"Fed Chair Warsh struck a more hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole speech as he acknowledged the inflation concerns."
"This has sapped some life from the precious metals complex as expected, but thus far pricing has remained well-supported."
"Hike pricing has increased to just over two hikes in 2027 again, and we have argued the recent rally in gold was too early due to these lingering inflation concerns."
"Moving forward, we do not anticipate material downside for the yellow metal as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain."
"Positioning in gold is holding firm in the aftermath of a more hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, while renewed tensions in the Middle East see CTAs turn buyers in crude oil."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Current market structureGold drops to 4326 as correction deepens.Immediate support sits at $4320, Next $4250Lower Highs and Lower Lows are developing on 4 Hour time frame.Momentum is weakening with lower lows.A measured bounce may face initial hurdle at $4400-$4420.Upside recovery to extend on strong breakout above $4450.
Gold Daily Chart Courtesy www.skcharting.comFundamental driversThe current macro backdrop is unfavourable for gold. Rising US Treasury yields and renewed expectations of a September Fed rate hike are supporting the dollar and reducing the relative appeal of non-yielding gold. Markets are also focusing heavily on upcoming US labour-market data, including Nonfarm Payroll.
Renewed Geopolitical tensions provide an important counterforce through safe-haven demand, but hostilities in Hormuz Strait waters trigger higher oil prices, simultaneously increasing inflation concerns and strengthening the case for tighter monetary policy.
Intraday possibilitiesPrimary scenario — Bearish continuationWhile below 4,400–4,420, rallies may remain vulnerable to selling. A decisive break below 4,320 could expose 4,300 → 4,250.
Alternative — Oversold reboundH4 RSI is deeply oversold, so a technical bounce toward 4,420–4,450 is quite possible. The quality of that rebound should be judged by whether price can reclaim and hold 4,450.
Short-term biasImmediate trend remains extremely bearish and rallies are being sold with lack of strong buying interest.
However, persistent selling pressure is creating oversold conditions in 4 hour and 1 hour time frames which indicates sellers are not strongly interested to sell on dips and a short term buying rebound may start taking shape around these lows or on further drop towards $4330-$4320.
Recovery rally bounce may target $4400-$4420 while further continuation of bullish rebound will require strong breakout above $4450.
A short-term bullish reversal confirmation would be considered if Gold successfully manages to break and sustain above major turning point $4505-$4520.
Note: These are author's personal observations based on price action, not a trading advice.
USD/CHF ticks higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) recoups most of the previous day’s losses. Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and rising US Treasury yields keep the Greenback underpinned near its recent highs. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8103, up roughly 0.24% on the day.
Fed rate hike expectations have strengthened following Chair Kevin Warsh’s tough stance on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Warsh said the central bank would have more work to do if policymakers were not confident that inflation was returning to the 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see around a 65% probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting.
In contrast, subdued inflation in Switzerland, near the lower end of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0%-2% price-stability range, supports expectations that the central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% at its upcoming meetings. Switzerland’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are due on Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to be flat on a monthly basis after declining 0.1% in July, while the annual rate is forecast to rise to 0.5% from 0.4%.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, USD/CHF holds above the key moving averages and retains a constructive bullish tone. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8091 underpins the pair as immediate support, with the 100-day SMA at 0.7987 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7934 reinforcing a broader positive backdrop.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 suggests moderate upside momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting that buying pressure is gradually rebuilding after a recent pullback.
On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the horizontal barrier at 0.8150, ahead of a higher cap at 0.8200, where fresh offers could emerge. On the downside, a daily close below the 50-day SMA at 0.8091 would weaken the short-term bias and expose the next support layers at 0.7987 and 0.7934, where the longer-term SMAs are clustered and would be expected to attract dip-buying interest.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.22%0.13%0.22%0.22%0.25%0.25%0.24%EUR-0.22%-0.08%0.02%-0.01%0.03%0.02%0.02%GBP-0.13%0.08%0.09%0.09%0.11%0.11%0.10%JPY-0.22%-0.02%-0.09%-0.00%0.01%0.03%-0.00%CAD-0.22%0.00%-0.09%0.00%0.02%0.00%-0.01%AUD-0.25%-0.03%-0.11%-0.01%-0.02%0.00%-0.04%NZD-0.25%-0.02%-0.11%-0.03%-0.01%-0.00%-0.01%CHF-0.24%-0.02%-0.10%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
USD/JPY eyes a breakout while AUD/USD and NZD/USD face downside setups as rising US yields support the dollar. See key forex levels to watch.
USD/JPY
+0.22%
USD/JPY ForecastAUD/USD
-0.31%
AUD/USD ForecastNZD/USD
-0.36%
NZD/USD Forecast
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY trades at 160.15, pushing above the 160.00 level and both converging EMAs near 159.50, after trending higher from the Aug 28 lows. Source: TradingView. The US dollar against the Japanese yen is a pair that I watch all the time. I actually have longer-term buy-and-hold positions in this, but I may be adding to this if we can break to a fresh new high somewhere around 160.33.
This is a market that I have no interest in shorting because of the interest rate differential, but there is a little bit of intervention risk here. For myself, I’ve been long of this pair for months, so this is an addition to what I already have been doing. For short-term trading, it is a viable potential breakout play. I would keep an eye on that 159.8 level, though. A breakdown below that level could signify some type of shift in momentum.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD trades at 0.7144, falling below the converging 50 and 200 EMAs near 0.7156 and the 0.7150 level after a sharp selloff. Source: TradingView. The Australian dollar is a pair that I’m watching closely. If we can break down below the 0.7130 level, I might start shorting for a small move, maybe down to about 0.71, with a stop loss above 0.7160. This is an interest rate play, and the US dollar, of course, is seeing higher rates, while Australia is as well, but it’s a different ratio; it’s a different amount. The situation still favors the US dollar as far as that is concerned.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis NZD/USD drops to 0.5894, breaking below the 0.5900 level and both EMAs after declining from the 0.5980 area. Source: TradingView. The New Zealand dollar, same story. I either sell a break below the 0.5885 level, or I sell a rally that shows signs of exhaustion near the 0.5915 level. I’ll be watching this closely. The interest rate differential still favors the US dollar, and I think the real support is probably closer to the 0.5870 level. So maybe a 20-pip move. If we get a little bit of a rally and signs of exhaustion, that might open up more of like a 40-pip move.
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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.
Industrial Demand and Key Technical Levels That being said, the World Silver Survey looks for industrial consumption to fall 3% in 2026, partially because of everything going on. And there have been some pundits out there marking down their longer-term forecast for the year to $68, such as major bank ING.
Ultimately, this is a market that is testing a couple of major moving averages, and if we were to break down below there, we could see a return to the $60 level. That’s an area that had been significant support previously. $70 still looks to be a bit resistant, and right now, we’re right in the middle of that with these moving averages.
Keep in mind the jobs report is on Friday, so the later we get into the week, the choppier and more sideways this could become, as we wait for that major news release.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.3550, while maintaining bullish bias above 100-day SMAThe GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3545 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium underpin the US dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP).
Warsh said on Friday during his first Jackson Hole speech that with inflation “running above our 2 percent target, the Fed’s predominant focus right now should be ’that underlying inflation is moving to our objective, clearly, and at sufficient speed … otherwise, we have work to do.” Read more...
British Pound softens to near 1.3550 on geopolitical tensions, hawkish Fed betsThe GBP/USD pair trades with mild losses around 1.3550 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the British Pound (GBP) amid ongoing Middle East tensions and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish remarks at the Jackson Hole symposium.
US President Donald Trump on Monday threatened to forcefully strike Iran after the US and Iran exchanged fire for the first time in a month. Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said it targeted US military bases in the two Middle Eastern countries in response to the first US strikes on Iran in weeks. Read more...
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Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Gold (XAU/USD) resumed its decline on Tuesday, following a flat performance on Monday, reaching fresh two-week lows at $4,375 so far, posting a nearly 7% decline from last week’s peak, near $4,700. Precious metals are struggling this week as hawkish comments by Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole summit on Friday provided a fresh boost to the USD.
Strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the US Dollar has “recovered most of yesterday’s pullback” as policy expectations remain firmly skewed toward further tightening. They also highlight that “Fed funds futures price in 67% odds of a 25bps hike on September 16 and imply 60bps of tightening over the next twelve months,” with market “pricing [set to] remain elevated into the September meeting.”
In their view, however, “August CPI on September 11” will be the “decisive test” to see whether those rate expectations – and the Dollar’s recovery – can be sustained.
Technical Analysis: Next downside target is at $4,315
XAU/USD trades at $4,378, with momentum indicators in the daily chart entering bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is testing levels below the key 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped below zero, pointing to increasing downside pressure.
Immediate support is seen at the mid-August lows between $ 4,310 and $4,330. Further down, the August 6 low, near $4,225, would come into view. On the topside, previous support at the $4,450 area has now turned resistance and is likely to test rallies, ahead of the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,530 and last week's highs, near $4,700.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Euro (EUR) trades 0.2% lower to near 1.1593 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair is under pressure as the US Dollar outperforms its peers due to increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates in the near term.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, is up 0.2% to near 99.60.
Hawkish Fed expectations are supported by the Fed’s commitment that it will act to bring inflation down to the 2% target.
Fed chair Warsh strikes more hawkish tone on inflation pathAnalysts at Rabobank note that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “appeared to rebuild some of his credibility as an inflation fighter” in his first address to the annual Jackson Hole Symposium, emphasising that the Fed still has “work to do” to bring inflation back to its 2% target. They argue that the remarks represent “an important shift” from the communication strategy he has followed since taking office, with Warsh, for the first time as Chair, explicitly voicing dissatisfaction with recent inflation developments.
Rabobank highlights that Warsh also signalled he was open to further rate hikes unless underlying inflation shows a more convincing improvement. As he put it, “We must be convinced that underlying inflation is moving toward our target clearly and at a sufficient pace. Otherwise, we still have work to do.”
Meanwhile, investors shift their focus to the United States (US) ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August and the US JOLTS Job Openings data for July, which will be published at 14:00 GMT.
On the Eurozone front, the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for August comes in higher at 3.3% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, against 2.9% in July. The core HICP growth cooled down to 2.4%, while it was expected to remain steady at 2.5%.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the four-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1594, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1618. The pair is capped by this short-term EMA resistance, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 36 stays below neutral, hinting at persistent downside pressure rather than an oversold condition.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-period EMA at 1.1618, which would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish bias and allow for a more sustained recovery. Looking down, the 1.1580 level is expected to act as a key support area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) measures changes in the prices of a representative basket of goods and services in the European Monetary Union. The HICP, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, is harmonized because the same methodology is used across all member states and their contribution is weighted. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Gold (XAU/USD) extends its pullback from the more-than-three-month high touched last week and falls to a fresh two-week low on Tuesday. Rising expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes and fresh tensions in the Middle East remain the main drivers behind the latest leg lower. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,376, down roughly 1.60% on the day.
Following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s tough rhetoric on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium, interest rate hike bets are firmly back on the table. Traders now see the central bank raising borrowing costs as soon as this month, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing around a 65% probability of a hike at the September 15-16 meeting, up from roughly 40% a week ago.
The hawkish repricing helps the US Dollar (USD) recover some of its recent losses, while US Treasury yields resume their advance. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.60, near the two-week high of 99.72 reached on Friday and retested on Monday. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield rises to around 4.80%, its highest level since January 2025.
A firmer US Dollar makes Dollar-denominated Gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
At the same time, rising Oil prices are adding to inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations that worldwide central banks may need to keep monetary policy tight. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil advances for the second consecutive day following the latest flare-up around the Strait of Hormuz.
The United States and Iran exchanged strikes for the first time in a month over the weekend, while a tanker was hit by three unidentified projectiles while sailing out of the strait, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency said on Tuesday.
Typically, inflation and geopolitical concerns support Gold. However, the market is currently reacting through the interest rate channel, and the metal tends to perform poorly when interest rates and Treasury yields rise.
Sellers are therefore likely to retain the upper hand in the near term, although upcoming US economic data and developments in the Middle East could trigger fresh volatility.
Tuesday’s US economic calendar features the August ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and July JOLTS Job Openings. Attention will then shift to the ADP Employment Change report on Wednesday and the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD extends decline, eyes support near $4,350
On the daily chart, XAU/USD extends its decline below the 200-day SMA and is now testing the 100-day SMA near $4,365, a level that also aligns closely with the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $4,350, forming a key support zone. A daily close below this cluster would tilt the near-term bias bearish, exposing the 61.8% retracement near $4,267.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 49 sits near the midline, hinting at balanced conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, suggesting waning bullish momentum after the recent pullback.
On the downside, a break below the $4,350-$4,365 support zone would open the door toward $4,267 (61.8% retracement), followed by $4,149 (78.6% retracement) and the prior cycle low near $4,000.
On the upside, initial resistance emerges at $4,432 (38.2% retracement), with a stronger barrier near $4,530 (200-day SMA) and $4,534 (23.6% retracement). A sustained break above this zone would open the path toward the $4,700 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ISM Manufacturing PMI The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The indicator is obtained from a survey of manufacturing supply executives based on information they have collected within their respective organizations. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). A reading below 50 signals that factory activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Read more.
The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) provides a reliable outlook on the state of the US manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 suggests that the business activity expanded during the survey period and vice versa. PMIs are considered to be leading indicators and could signal a shift in the economic cycle. Stronger-than-expected prints usually have a positive impact on the USD. In addition to the headline PMI, the Employment Index and the Prices Paid Index numbers are watched closely as they shine a light on the labour market and inflation.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline on Tuesday, trading around $64.85 at the time of writing, down 2.54% on the day. The white metal slips below the key $65.50 area as prospects of tighter US monetary policy continue to weigh on precious metals.
Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve (Fed) have shifted significantly following Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. The US central bank chief indicated that interest rates may need to rise if inflation fails to slow sufficiently, increasing pressure on non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Rising energy prices add to inflation concerns. Tensions in the Middle East support Oil prices and fuel the risk of renewed price pressures, a scenario that could strengthen the case for a more restrictive Fed monetary policy.
According to the CME Group FedWatch Tool, markets now see more than a 65% chance of an interest rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. These expectations also help support the US Dollar (USD), creating an additional headwind for Silver.
Investors, however, remain cautious ahead of several US macroeconomic releases that could reshape these expectations. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) releases its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August on Tuesday, while the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report is expected to provide fresh insights into US labor demand.
Attention will then turn to the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The employment figures are likely to play an important role in shaping expectations for the Fed’s policy path ahead of its September meeting. Strong data could reinforce monetary tightening expectations and keep Silver under pressure, while clearer signs of labor market weakness could temper hawkish Fed bets.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold traded around 4,460 USD per ounce on Tuesday, remaining near a two-week low. Pressure on the metal has intensified due to rising oil prices and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which have significantly increased expectations of an imminent US rate hike.
Oil rose for a second consecutive session following US strikes on an island in the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory attacks by Iran on the UAE and Jordan. Rising energy prices are adding to inflation risks and strengthening the case for Fed tightening – an unfavourable backdrop for gold.
Kevin Warsh said the Fed will have more work to do unless stronger evidence shows inflation is returning to its 2% target. Markets now price in more than a 65% chance of a rate hike as early as September, up from about 36% before his comments.
Despite the current correction, August was a strong month for gold, with the metal gaining around 10%. The main support came from the US Treasury’s decision to double long-term bond buybacks, which reignited demand for the debasement trade and heightened concerns about the dollar’s stability.
Technical analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 4,433 USD level. An expansion of the range towards 4,500 USD on the upside and 4,377 USD on the downside cannot be ruled out today. Given the break below the upward channel at 4,460 USD, a further decline towards 4,320 USD remains the main scenario. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below the centre line and trending downward, indicating continued short-term downside momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 4,395 USD, followed by a correction to 4,464 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming below 4,500 USD. A downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 4,377 USD, with scope for a further decline to 4,318 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating continued short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGold has retreated to a two-week low as hawkish Fed signals and rising geopolitical tensions have strengthened the case for higher US interest rates. Oil prices have risen following renewed military action in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing inflation risks and pushing the likelihood of a September rate hike above 65%. While gold posted strong gains in August – up about 10% – supported by US Treasury bond buybacks and concerns over the dollar, the short-term outlook remains bearish. Technically, further downside towards 4,377 USD and potentially 4,318 USD appears likely, with the metal’s direction hinging on US economic data and geopolitical developments.
Gold traded around 4,460 USD per ounce on Tuesday, remaining near a two-week low. Pressure on the metal has intensified due to rising oil prices and hawkish comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which have significantly increased expectations of an imminent US rate hike.
Oil rose for a second consecutive session following US strikes on an island in the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory attacks by Iran on the UAE and Jordan. Rising energy prices are adding to inflation risks and strengthening the case for Fed tightening – an unfavourable backdrop for gold.
Kevin Warsh said the Fed will have more work to do unless stronger evidence shows inflation is returning to its 2% target. Markets now price in more than a 65% chance of a rate hike as early as September, up from about 36% before his comments.
Despite the current correction, August was a strong month for gold, with the metal gaining around 10%. The main support came from the US Treasury’s decision to double long-term bond buybacks, which reignited demand for the debasement trade and heightened concerns about the dollar’s stability.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 4,433 USD level. An expansion of the range towards 4,500 USD on the upside and 4,377 USD on the downside cannot be ruled out today. Given the break below the upward channel at 4,460 USD, a further decline towards 4,320 USD remains the main scenario. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below the centre line and trending downward, indicating continued short-term downside momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed a downward move to 4,395 USD, followed by a correction to 4,464 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming below 4,500 USD. A downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 4,377 USD, with scope for a further decline to 4,318 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating continued short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion Gold has retreated to a two-week low as hawkish Fed signals and rising geopolitical tensions have strengthened the case for higher US interest rates. Oil prices have risen following renewed military action in the Strait of Hormuz, reinforcing inflation risks and pushing the likelihood of a September rate hike above 65%. While gold posted strong gains in August – up about 10% – supported by US Treasury bond buybacks and concerns over the dollar, the short-term outlook remains bearish. Technically, further downside towards 4,377 USD and potentially 4,318 USD appears likely, with the metal’s direction hinging on US economic data and geopolitical developments.
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Hello Traders, in today’s blog we’re reviewing the $XAGUSD wave count shared with members, which highlighted a strong bullish outlook. The Elliott Wave pattern confirmed the move right at the extreme/high‑frequency zone, propelling prices sharply higher.
XAGUSD After Completing Major Correction from All‑Time Highs
Silver peaked earlier this year at 121.503 on January 29, 2026, before entering a six‑month corrective phase that concluded at 3940.68 on July 17, 2026. From that low, Silver rallied to complete wave (4) at 62.548, then turned higher, finishing wave 1 of a new nest. Price has since pulled back in a proposed wave 2, holding against the 62.548 pivot.
The Forecast: Completion of Wave ((iv)) Correction
The setup identified Silver at a decisive turning point following a corrective pullback from the peak near $67.84. After completing a multi‑wave bullish impulse into wave ((iii))/(v) above $67.00, price action unfolded into a corrective three‑wave (a)‑(b)‑(c) decline, designated as sub‑wave ((iv)).
The projected target zone for wave (c) of ((iv)) was between the 100% Fibonacci expansion at 63.211 and the 161.8% expansion at 61.144. The trade bias was clearly defined as “Turning Up”, with the explicit warning: “We Do Not Recommend Selling.” Traders were instructed to wait for the corrective wave to terminate within or near the target zone before initiating long positions.
The invalidation level was set at 56.614 (wave ((ii)) low), where a break below would negate the bullish structure. See below chart
The After Analysis
The follow‑up chart confirms that the wave projection unfolded almost exactly as anticipated (Note: We had some degree adjustments). Wave C of (4) completed squarely within the target zone, bottoming at 62.548—just above the updated invalidation level—before buyers stepped in aggressively.
From the 62.548 floor, Silver launched into a clean 5‑wave micro‑impulse, driving price through $70.00 and topping at 70.739. With Wave 1 complete at 70.739, the market is now undergoing a minor corrective consolidation in Wave 2, proposed as a three‑swing structure, setting the stage for the next upside leg. See chart below
Comparative Setup Overview
Between the August 19 “Before” forecast and the August 22 “After” execution, the market transitioned from the tail end of a Wave ((iv)) correction into a fully completed Wave 1 impulse. The initial setup targeted an entry zone between 63.211 and 61.144, which ultimately bottomed cleanly at 62.548.
As the primary trend resumed, the invalidation level was raised from 56.614 to 62.548 to lock in profit protection. The resulting rally drove price to a peak of 70.739, marking a +$8.19 / +13.1% rebound and fully validating the “Right Side” bullish bias.
What’s Next for Silver in the Coming Weeks?
As charts progress, the structures and labeling naturally evolve. At the time of writing, wave 2 is proposed to have ended as a flat correction and is now turning higher, with the invalidation level maintained at 62.548. As long as price holds above this pivot, Silver is expected to continue advancing to eventually complete wave (5) of higher degree within wave ((1)). From there, the market would be positioned for a corrective pullback in wave ((2)) against the July lows, before resuming the broader bullish cycle. See chart below
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has bounced strongly from 1.1573 after an excessive selloff, but momentum remains subdued. Intraday, the Euro (EUR) is expected to hold within 1.1595–1.1640. On a 1–3 week horizon, downside risks persist toward 1.1550, though oversold conditions suggest this major support may not be tested immediately. Longer-term targets remain at 1.1800 and 1.1850.
Euro recovery faces limited upside"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR plummeted to a low of 1.1577 last Friday. When EUR was at 1.1585 yesterday, we highlighted that “the sharp decline appears excessive, but with no signs of stabilisation yet, EUR could decline further.” We pointed out that “the major support at 1.1550 is likely out of reach,” and we noted that “there is another support level at 1.1570.” However, instead of declining further, EUR rebounded strongly from 1.1573 to 1.1620. While EUR could continue to rebound today, given that there has been no clear increase in momentum, EUR should remain within a 1.1595/1.1640 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Last Friday (28 Aug, spot at 1.1650), we indicated that EUR “appears to have entered a range-trading phase between 1.1600 and 1.1685.” After EUR subsequently fell below 1.1600, we highlighted yesterday (31 Aug, spot at 1.1585) that “the rapid increase in downward momentum suggests EUR could decline further.” We also highlighted that “oversold short-term conditions suggest the major support at 1.1550 may not come into view so soon.” While downward momentum has slowed somewhat with the subsequent strong rebound, only a breach of 1.1650 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that 1.1550 is not coming into view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is sharply lower early Tuesday after crossing decisively to the weak side of a short-term pivot at $66.87. This level is now resistance.
The downside momentum created by the sell-off could drive XAGUSD into the intermediate 50% level at $62.98. Look for a possible technical bounce on the initial test of this price, but if it fails, the move could extend into the 50-day moving average at $61.51.
The major support area is the 50% level of the record high at $60.835 and the more-than-one-month low at $54.78.
What to Watch Friday’s jobs data is running the silver trade for the rest of the week. Warsh set the bar at Jackson Hole. The 10-year at 4.78% and crude above $90 are both pointed against the metal and both are tied to the same inflation story. A firm payroll number with stronger wages keeps the rate pressure on silver and gives sellers more room to work with. Softer employment data would force a repricing of September odds and that is the only thing that gives silver a clean bid from here. Gold is not providing cover. The dollar is firm. The metal is fighting every headwind at once going into the jobs week.
Silver broke the pivot at $66.87 Tuesday and that level is now resistance above. The intermediate 50% at $62.98 is the next level where buyers have a reason to show up. Below that, the 50-day moving average sits at $61.51 and the major support zone runs from $60.835 down to $54.78. Silver needs to hold above $62.98 on this move or the sell-off from August’s highs starts looking like more than profit-taking.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.76 per troy ounce, down 2.69% from the $66.55 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 8.90% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.55 on Tuesday, up from 66.84 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The EUR/USD remains vulnerable below 1.1621 as USD strength still remains despite Monday's pullback move to the upside. Current Setup Current sentiment: cautiously bearish EUR/USD.
The pair is up 0.33% on the day and trading around 1.1616. The modest intraday recovery comes as traders who were long USD take profits. However, sentiment still favors USD strength, and that is why this bias for EUR/USD is cautiously bearish. The Euro is getting some support from expectations of a potential rate hike by the European Central Bank in September, especially as renewed tensions between the US and Iran have driven oil prices higher and raised concerns about imported inflation in the Eurozone.
Macro Drivers for the EUR/USD 1) Fed Hawkish Expectations
After the Fed Chair’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, 28 August, markets are now pricing in a much higher probability of a September Fed hike. US bond yields rose sharply, which continues to support the dollar while limiting the EUR/USD’s upside. This upside retracement was capped at 1.1621 on 31 August.
2) The ECB Policy Meeting
The ECB is also expected to raise rates in September in direct response to the hike in oil prices following the renewed tensions in the Middle East. Eurozone yields have also risen sharply, which should be ok to ward off a major euro sell-off unless the ECB disappoints and the Fed’s monetary policy expectations are repriced more hawkishly.
3) Geopolitics
Renewed US-Iran military tensions are keeping Brent crude above $90/barrel. This supports defensive positioning into the dollar, even as the risk of imported inflation makes an ECB rate hike more likely. Geopolitics is clouding the EUR/USD outlook, and the next two weeks should provide additional clarity on the situation.
Price Catalysts This Week 1. Non-Farm Payrolls: The major price catalyst this week is the Non-Farm Payrolls report. A weak payrolls report undermines any September Fed-hike expectations. This could strongly support EUR/USD amid ECB rate-hike expectations. However, a better-than-expected US jobs report favors additional dollar strength.
2. Other Macroeconomic Data: Other price catalysts include the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and the Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimates YoY (2.5% consensus vs 2.5% prior).
3. Brent crude prices: This is important to establish the level of defensive positioning into the US Dollars, and also the extent to which any ECB rate hike bets are repriced.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast Scenarios Base case: EUR/USD remains under pressure below 1.1640.
Bull case: Euro gets support from hawkish ECB expectations. Additionally, weak US jobs data → fall in Fed hike expectations → weaker USD → allows EUR/USD to rebound toward 1.17.
Bear case: strong US jobs data + higher oil prices + hawkish Fed → reinforces USD strength. EUR/USD breaks 1.1570 and targets 1.1550.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook Technically, 1.1621 (31 August intraday high) is the next important resistance. Below it, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to 1.1577, followed by the 8 June and 4 August lows at 1.1506. A breakdown of 1.1577 support unlocks the downward path to a retest of the uncapped neckline of the completed double bottom at 1.1506.
On the flip side, a break of 1.1621 clears the pathway to 1.1682. A further move north brings in 1.1743, a potential pitstop before 1.1813 comes into the picture.
The US Dollar (USD) is up 0.15% to near 160.00 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The USD/JPY pair strengthens as the US Dollar outperforms due to surging United States (US) Treasury Yields amid fiscal concerns and questions over the credibility of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision-making.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 99.60. 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a fresh 19-month high at 4.78% and are approaching the multi-year high of 4.81%.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.05%0.10%0.10%0.34%0.37%0.19%EUR-0.18%-0.12%-0.06%-0.09%0.15%0.17%0.00%GBP-0.05%0.12%0.04%0.08%0.27%0.30%0.13%JPY-0.10%0.06%-0.04%0.00%0.23%0.28%0.09%CAD-0.10%0.09%-0.08%-0.01%0.23%0.24%0.08%AUD-0.34%-0.15%-0.27%-0.23%-0.23%0.04%-0.15%NZD-0.37%-0.17%-0.30%-0.28%-0.24%-0.04%-0.17%CHF-0.19%-0.01%-0.13%-0.09%-0.08%0.15%0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
US curve reprices hawkish Fed as long-end selloff flags fiscal and credibility fearsStrategists at BNY Markets highlight that, although he “stopped short of explicit forward guidance in his Jackson Hole address,” Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “stepped as close to the line as possible in advocating a hike,” with the market now “pricing an almost two-thirds probability for one at the FOMC’s September 16 meeting.” Beyond that decision, they note that “the view is murkier,” but futures still “see at least an additional hike into early 2027 and more upside – although not a full hike – beyond that, with a total of about two-and-a-half currently priced.”
BNY observes that the rate repricing has been accompanied by a notable move at the back end of the curve: “The long end has sold off, betraying the view of many (including ours) that a more hawkish Fed would help bring yields lower as credibility would be seen to be enhanced.” Instead, “both the 10y and 30y yields have moved much higher since Friday,” a development that “continues to reinforce for us the view that the long end of the curve is being led by something other than mere inflation expectations and policy conjectures.” BNY concludes, “We think of fiscal concerns and doubts about institutional credibility as the culprits.”
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen struggles to attract bids even as market experts are confident about the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates in the policy meeting this month.
Yen under pressure as markets ramp up BoJ hike expectationsAnalysts at Danske Bank highlight that the latest commentary from the BoJ has sharpened market expectations for further tightening. They note that “markets were already pricing a high likelihood of a 25bp hike to 1.25% at the September meeting,” but stress that “the remarks added to the pressure with markets now pricing a rate hike by 70%.”
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 159.91. The pair holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 159.59, which suggests that the near-term bias remains mildly bullish as price respects trend support. Momentum is constructive rather than aggressive, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 51, hinting at a modest upside tilt after recovering from previously oversold readings.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA around 159.59, where buyers have scope to defend the current upswing. On the upside, the pair needs a decisive break above the August 28 high at 160.20 to extend the rally towards the July 31 high at 160.88.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
TL;DR: The Bank of Canada’s Wednesday hold at 2.25% is fully priced, but economist consensus (first hike in Q4 2027) and market pricing (roughly 1.76 hikes by March 2027) disagree sharply on what comes next — making the statement’s tone, not the decision itself, the real driver for USD/CAD.
Everyone Expects a Hold. Almost Nobody Agrees on What Happens Next The Bank of Canada is expected to leave its rate at 2.25% on Wednesday. All 35 economists surveyed by Reuters forecast a hold, and market pricing agrees. If that’s all traders cared about, this would be a low-drama meeting. But the agreement ends almost immediately after Wednesday.
The Reuters consensus sees the first BoC hike only in Q4 2027. Among economists who provided a forecast, fewer than half expect even one increase by the end of Q2 2027. CIBC’s Avery Shenfeld describes the Bank as being in a “watchful-waiting stance,” with inflation concerns roughly balanced by growth risks from the Canada-US trade conflict.
Markets aren’t waiting nearly that long. OIS pricing as of Sept. 1 embeds roughly 1.76 quarter-point hikes by March 3, 2027, with that meeting carrying around 76.8% marginal probability of an increase. In other words, the market’s center of gravity for tighter policy sits several quarters ahead of economist consensus.
That’s the real story heading into Wednesday: the hold is priced; the timing of the next hike is not.
Survey Says Late 2027. Some Banks Say October. There’s an important reason not to treat the survey-market gap as a simple contest over who has the better forecast. Each economist in a Reuters poll submits a single path they consider most likely. Markets have to price every plausible path at once. A smaller probability of something much more hawkish can therefore drag OIS pricing forward even if most forecasters still expect a long pause.
National Bank and Scotiabank show exactly what that hawkish scenario looks like. Both expect the BoC to hike to 2.50% in October and again to 2.75% in December — more than a year ahead of the Reuters consensus.
OIS doesn’t say those banks are right. October remains a minority outcome. But it says the possibility is real enough to matter. So there are really three positions rather than two: most economists expect the BoC to wait until late 2027, National Bank and Scotia see tightening beginning this autumn, and markets sit somewhere in between — pricing an earlier move than consensus without fully embracing the aggressive 2026 path.
Two New Forces May Be Pulling Pricing Forward The difference between probability-weighted market pricing and single-path forecasts is the most defensible explanation for the gap. But the timing also raises two interesting questions.
The Reuters poll closed on Aug. 28, before renewed US-Iran fighting pushed Brent back above $90. Canada is an oil exporter, so higher crude can support CAD directly, while persistent energy inflation could also make the BoC less comfortable leaving rates unchanged for an extended period. It’s plausible this week’s oil shock has pushed Canadian rate expectations higher — we can’t prove that without a comparable OIS snapshot from before the escalation, so it should remain a hypothesis rather than a conclusion.
US rates are another possibility. Treasury yields have surged after Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech, and the US 10-year is now challenging 4.8%. Canadian OIS could be participating in a broader North American rates repricing rather than reflecting a purely domestic rethink. That distinction will become clearer if Canadian pricing starts moving independently after Wednesday.
With No New Forecasts, Watch Every Change in Tone There’s no new Monetary Policy Report this week — the next MPR comes Oct. 28. That strips away one of the usual numerical signals and leaves statement language and Governor Macklem’s press conference with more work to do.
A more hawkish Bank would give OIS pricing greater credibility. Markets will listen for less concern about trade-related downside risk, greater emphasis on inflation near the top of the 1–3% target band, or any suggestion that recent economic resilience has reduced the need for caution.
A more dovish tone would strengthen economist consensus. If the BoC continues emphasizing weak demand, trade uncertainty, and temporary or externally driven price pressure, the argument for waiting well into 2027 would become easier to defend.
Governor Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Rogers speak at 10:30 ET, and with the rate itself almost predetermined, changes in emphasis — or conspicuous omissions from July’s message — could drive the Canadian Dollar reaction.
Friday Tests Both Sides of USD/CAD Wednesday may not even be the most important day for the pair this week. Canada and the US both release employment reports Friday, Sept. 4.
Canada enters the report with a surprisingly constructive recent trend. Employment has risen for three consecutive months, with roughly 181,000 jobs added since April, while unemployment fell to 6.4% in July, the lowest in two years. If that continues, the market’s earlier BoC-hike pricing gains another argument. If the labor market rolls over, the watchful-waiting camp gets stronger evidence that the Bank should stay patient.
Then there’s US NFP. Strong US jobs could reinforce Warsh-driven Fed repricing and support the Dollar even if Canadian data are solid. Weak NFP could undercut the USD side of the pair. Wednesday tests BoC expectations. Friday tests both sides of USD/CAD.
Oil Could Reinforce CAD, or Complicate the Whole Trade Brent around $92 adds another variable. Oil is pressing toward the upper side of a multi-week triangle, with descending resistance around $94.83 and rising support near $84.56. Renewed US-Iran confrontation means either boundary could become vulnerable to a headline-driven break.
A sustained rise in crude would normally favor CAD through Canada’s terms of trade. In the current cycle, though, it could also feed inflation concerns and strengthen the case for earlier BoC tightening, giving the Canadian Dollar a second channel of support. But geopolitical oil shocks also feed US inflation and Treasury yields, so oil isn’t a one-directional USD/CAD signal — it’s another reason to avoid treating the current OIS-survey gap as settled before this week’s events play out.
ActionForex’s Technical View on USD/CAD: Bounced, But Not Reversed The charts tell a similarly unresolved story. USD/CAD has recovered from 1.3730, but the bounce still looks corrective against the decline from 1.4247. Last week’s broad Dollar strength wasn’t enough to push the pair through 1.3927, the 38.2% retracement of that fall, and price remains below descending near-term resistance.
Momentum is neutral. The 4H RSI is around 50 and the MACD is hovering close to zero — neither supports the claim that a new bullish trend has begun.
As long as 1.3927 caps upside, another move lower remains favored. A break of 1.3823 would be the first sign the rebound is ending and put 1.3730 back in focus. A break of 1.3730 would resume bearish pressure and reopen the larger downside.
The alternative is clear too. A firm move above 1.3927 would invalidate the immediate bearish setup and target 1.4002, where former support has turned into resistance.
1.4002 Separates Correction From a Bigger Reassessment The daily chart puts that near-term battle into broader context. The recovery from 1.3480 is still treated as corrective within the medium-term downtrend. It may already have completed as a three-wave rise to 1.4247, or that move may represent the first leg of a larger correction. Either interpretation still allows another test of 1.3480 while 1.4002 holds.
This creates a clean fundamental-technical bridge for Wednesday. If the BoC sounds comfortable waiting well into 2027, USD/CAD could finally push through 1.3927 and test whether 1.4002 can hold. If Macklem sounds closer to the market’s earlier tightening timeline, the rebound from 1.3730 could fail before those levels and the broader bearish structure would stay intact.
Either way, Wednesday’s answer is unlikely to come from the 2.25% printed at the top of the decision. It will come from how the Bank talks about what happens next — and whether that sounds more like economist consensus, market pricing, or the increasingly hawkish minority already calling for an October hike.
Key Takeaways Wednesday’s BoC hold at 2.25% is fully priced by both economists and markets, but the two diverge sharply on timing: Q4 2027 (Reuters consensus) versus roughly 1.76 hikes priced by March 2027 (OIS). National Bank and Scotiabank represent the hawkish tail, expecting hikes to 2.50% in October and 2.75% in December, more than a year ahead of consensus. With no new Monetary Policy Report this week, statement language and Macklem’s press conference tone carry more weight than usual for gauging which camp is right. Friday’s dual Canada-US employment reports may matter more than Wednesday’s decision, testing both the BoC repricing story and the Warsh-driven Fed repricing simultaneously. USD/CAD stays capped below 1.3927 resistance for now; a hawkish BoC tone could push through toward 1.4002, while a dovish tone risks a break of 1.3823 and a retest of 1.3730.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
The US dollar ended August with its second consecutive close in the red. Despite a successful end to the summer thanks to Kevin Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ rhetoric at Jackson Hole, the USD index fell over the month due to the Treasury’s intention to lower long-term Treasury yields, slowing inflation, a cooling labour market and a reduced likelihood of the Fed tightening monetary policy.
At the turn of August and September, the probability of a federal funds rate hike at the next FOMC meeting jumped above 60%. This allowed the USD index to partially recoup its losses. Rumours are circulating in the market that Kevin Warsh, with his speech at Jackson Hole, not only corrected the communication errors of his previous remarks but also restored confidence. His departure, coupled with the Treasury’s intention to control Treasury yields, laid the groundwork for a ‘debasement trade’.
As a result, gold capitalised on the decline in investor interest in bonds and currencies and soared by almost 10% in August. This marks the best performance since January, despite a loss of more than 3% due to Kevin Warsh’s ‘hawkish’ speech and the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The resumption of hostilities between the US and Iran pushed Brent crude above $90 per barrel, increasing the risks of accelerating inflation and a tightening of the Fed’s monetary policy.
And yet, the main factor behind a potential correction in XAUUSD could be a return of confidence in the Fed Chair. According to Donald Trump, Kevin Warsh will ultimately do what he is supposed to do. Scott Bessent argues that the Treasury and the central bank are working in tandem and puts forward a case for keeping rates unchanged at the next FOMC meeting.
Wells Fargo believes the US dollar will weaken by the end of September as the Fed disappoints markets. The central bank will not tighten monetary policy. This would lead to a continuation of the upward trend in gold prices.
The precious metal is under pressure as global debt market yields return to their highest levels since 2008. Yields on 10-year Treasury bonds are at 19-year highs. It is believed that gold, which does not pay interest, cannot compete with Treasuries when rates are rising.
Summary: Gold surged nearly 10% in August, its best monthly performance since January, but faces headwinds from rising Treasury yields at 19-year highs and a dollar recovering on renewed Fed hawkishness. The fate of XAUUSD now hinges on whether the Fed follows through on rate hike expectations or disappoints markets in September.
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US Dollar/Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): Arc cycle analysis
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, U.S. Dollar / Canadian Dollar briefly moved beyond the 0.618 Arc before returning within the Previous Arc boundary. The failed breakout suggests that the original Arc structure remains valid, favoring a reversal toward the opposite Arc.
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Bullish Reversal
Preferred Scenario
Potential Reversal / Return Toward the Opposite Arc
Primary Target Zone
1.3934
Scenario Invalidation
Sustained close beyond 1.3844
Current Arc Level
Reclaimed Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status
Returning to the Previous Arc Cycle
Arc Integrity
Reclaimed
Market outlookPrice has returned within the 0.618 Arc after a failed breakout, indicating that the original Arc structure remains intact. If price continues to hold within the reclaimed Arc boundary, the preferred scenario is a reversal toward 1.3934 price.
EUR/USD is trading below 1.16 as the euro comes under pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar, weaker German retail sales and rising oil prices ahead of Eurozone inflation data.
The euro is closing out August with genuine momentum, having climbed to $1.1697 against the dollar, its strongest level in three months, on the back of ECB hike bets that keep gaining traction. French and Spanish inflation both surprised to the upside, with Spain’s harmonised reading hitting 4.5%, its highest since 2023, reinforcing market expectations that the ECB deposit rate could climb to 2.80% by next March, from 2.25% currently. A September hike is now seen as roughly 60% likely.
Sterling, meanwhile, is navigating a genuinely awkward domestic backdrop. The Bank of England’s July decision, a 6–3 hold with three members pushing for a hike, initially read as hawkish, but Governor Bailey used his press conference to firmly close the door on near-term hike bets anyway. UK inflation eased to 2.9%, yet the labour market cooled more sharply than expected, with private-sector wage growth hitting its softest pace since 2020, leaving the BoE genuinely torn between growth resilience and a weakening jobs picture.
The result: an ECB gaining real conviction towards further tightening, versus a Bank of England sending increasingly mixed signals just as political uncertainty around Downing Street’s succession continues to simmer in the background.
Technical Analysis of EUR/GBP
As the EUR/GBP chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a tightening symmetrical triangle since mid-August, with a descending trendline from the 0.8587 highs converging with an ascending trendline off the 0.8480 lows, both meeting right around the current price near 0.8569, exactly where the 100-period EMA also sits.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 0.8587 highs, the 0 Fibonacci level marking the origin of the recent pullback. A confirmed breakout above that level would signal genuine bullish continuation for the euro.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 100-period EMA would expose the 0.382 retracement near 0.8536, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 0.5 level around 0.8521.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, EUR/GBP looks primed for a decisive break. Will the ECB’s hawkish momentum finally push the euro through resistance, or will sterling’s political noise keep the pair capped?
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DXY rebound helped by rising front-end US yields
DXY-gold inverse correlation strengthens to -0.92 over past week
Gold’s bear pennant warns of renewed downside.
The US dollar is finding support as front-end Treasury yields push higher following Kevin Walsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech. The renewed bid is weighing on gold, which is coiling within a bearish technical structure that warns of another potential leg lower.
Dollar bid returns
Source: TradingView
As noted in a separate post released in August, which flagged the potential for prior US dollar weakness to reverse, DXY has regained its mojo over the past week, rebounding strongly after twin failures beneath a support zone including the 50% retracement of the January to June bull move. That has seen it reclaim the 200-day moving average and the 38.2% Fib retracement of the same move, before eventually stalling at the 100-day moving average on Monday.
However, having tested the 38.2% Fib again in early trade on Tuesday, the price has rebounded over the remainder of the Asian session, pointing to the potential for a retest of the 100-day moving average, then resistance at 100 overhead.
The price action in DXY closely mirrors shifts in the shape of the US Fed funds futures curve between June and December this year, with tightening priced by year-end rising to 34 basis points, up from less than 25 basis points before Kevin Walsh’s speech at Jackson Hole last Friday.
DXY tracking front end yields again
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
The correlation matrix above shows a sharp increase in DXY’s positive relationship with front-end US yields over the past week, particularly the two-year tenor, where the correlation has jumped to 0.87. The relationship diminishes the further out the curve you go, falling to just 0.16 with the 30-year.
At the same time, DXY’s already strong inverse relationship with gold has strengthened further, lifting to -0.92 over the past five days, hinting that further dollar upside could spark renewed downside in gold.
Looking at the price action in XAU/USD, those risks may already be materialising.
Gold threatens another leg lower
Source: TradingView
Gold bulls will still be licking their wounds after Friday’s lurch lower, which saw the price take out the uptrend that had been in place from before the bullish breakout in early August. In the period since, the price has been consolidating in a narrowing range, struggling beneath $4,450, a level that acted as both support and resistance over recent weeks.
The abrupt downward move followed by the contracting price range resembles a bear pennant, warning of a potential resumption of the prior bearish move and retest of lower levels. The first of which is $4,400, where the price bounced on Friday, followed by $4,367, which has previously acted as both support and resistance, then $4,315, which provided support for periods in August.
The message from the oscillators is one of sustained downside pressure, with RSI (14) pushing back towards oversold territory at 30. MACD confirms the bearish message, continuing to trade beneath the signal line in negative territory.
Of course, if the price manages to break above pennant resistance, it would point to the potential for a move back towards resistance at $4,525.
