Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its early losses and rebounds to near $64.00 till the early European session on Wednesday. The white metal is broadly under pressure as surging United States (US) Treasury yields due to hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets are hurting non-yielding assets.

During the day, 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a record high at 4.81%, the highest level seen since November 2023.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the policy meeting this month.

Hawkish Fed bets accelerated after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warned of upside inflation risks at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Analysts at MUFG highlight that, while Fed Chair Warsh struck a hawkish tone in Jackson Hole on Friday, “the gist of his speech was similar to his previous speeches.” They note that he once again “talked tough on inflation” and underscored that if inflation does not decline at “sufficient speed” then the Fed still has “work to do,” reinforcing the perception that the policy bias remains tilted toward further tightening if disinflation stalls.

On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michael Barr highlighted the need to hike interest rates if price pressures don’t moderate soon. Barr also warned, “Inflation remains too high.”

Later in the day, investors will focus on the US ADP Employment Change data for August, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. According to estimates, the US private sector created 48K fresh jobs, slightly higher than 44K in July.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.05. The pair holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $65.33, keeping the near-term tone mildly bearish as the failed attempt to sustain above recent highs leaves price capped by this dynamic resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.72 hovers just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at waning bullish momentum rather than an outright oversold condition.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA around $65.33, and a daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease current downside pressure and open the way back toward the recent peak zone. Looking up, the Silver price could advance further to the August high at $71.12.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

$1.35017

-0.09%

DXY strengthens as Iran escalation lifts inflation risks and Fed hike bets, while EUR/USD and GBP/USD extend their bearish breakdowns.

In this article:GBP/USD

-0.09%

GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD

-0.07%

EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: Iran Escalation and Fed Hike Bets Lift Dollar Beginning September 2, the dollar will be stronger against multiple currencies due to new concerns arising from Iran dealing with the U.S. including the price of oil, inflation and increases in bond yields. Before the start of trading most markets set the probability of a rate hike by the Fed in September as 68%. It is clear that the market believes Warsh’s speech, the uncertainty of inflation, and an energy shock combined with the price of oil going up, have all added to the hawkish sentiments that are influencing this decision. In the U.S., data has been coming in below expectations, but this has not mattered because the market has other concerns, such as demand for safe haven currencies and the risk of inflation.

Dollar jumps against Euro due to strong inflation numbers. The inflation data from the Eurozone shows core inflation was 2.4%, while headline inflation was 3.3% with energy inflation at 14.3%. This far exceeds the inflation numbers from last year. This has increased the expectation for the European Central Bank to increase the deposit rate to 2.50% and rate hikes are expected when they meet next week.

Most expect interest rates will remain unchanged in the U.K. Also like in the Eurozone, the BoE has been dealing with higher inflation. The BoE has been able to address inflation and weaker labor market conditions, but new concerns have been the increased use of the Bank of England’s long-term repo facility. On August 18, the BoE noted the use of this facility called Level C collateral, which is higher risk, had been used the most since 2020.

For September 2, synchronized tightening pressure is the main FX theme. The dollar should benefit from a combination of an upward shift in Fed hike expectations and safe-haven flows. Meanwhile, the euro should benefit from an ECB rate hike while Sterling should continue to feel pressure from both inflation and weaker domestic financial conditions.

U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Reclaims 99.34 Support and Pushes Toward 99.90 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index is currently trading at 99.76 with price action continuing its rally from the 99.34 – 99.40 support region. Buyers clearly defended this region and pushed price above both the moving averages, showing a much stronger recovery from the previous consolidation.

I am currently long the US dollar Index. Looking for 99.90 as the next level of interest.

DXY has breached 99.57 and is trading up toward the 99.90 level. Currently, 100.09 is the next major resistance zone. If the bullish pressure continues, the price may cross the next resistance levels of 100.25 and 100.39. On the bearish side, I’ll be watching the support levels of 99.73, 99.57, and the major support zone of 99.34 to 99.40.

RSI is around neutral territory, which suggests bullish recovery potential. I’ll remain bullish so long as DXY trades above the 99.57 level, and especially above the 99.34 level. A break below the 99.34 level may signal that the recovery has failed.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Extends Breakdown as 1.3481 Support Comes Into Focus

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently trading at 1.3501, GBP/USD continues its decline from the resistance level of 1.3656-1.3676. I should say here that there was no correction. Rather, sterling violation of the channel, both moving averages, and the trend of lower highs and lower lows continues. What this means is that weakness is structural, not just a correction.

The area of interest now is 1.3481, which currently provides support, but may attract some short term selling. Should that level be broken, then sellers should be looking for support at 1.3435 and 1.3400. Resistance now is around 1.3526 and extends to 1.3565 and 1.3601.

The RSI is currently in oversold territory, so I can’t just dismiss a rebound from 1.3481. However, I still favor a bearish position as long as GBP/USD is below 1.3565. A move above 1.3601 would force me to change my mind on that position. However, I still favor a bearish position. Until then, I favor a bearish position.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Loses Rising Trendline as 1.1571 Becomes the Key Line I’m Watching EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The Euro is currently trading just above the 1.1578 level on the 2-hour chart after breaking beneath the trendline that supported theEA rise. I want to highlight that the pair lost the 1.1625 level and fell beneath the two short term moving averages as support broke. This shows that the recent euro bullish structure has weakened.

The first level that I am watching is 1.1571. The level is just above the current price. The RSI is already in oversold territory which would give buyers the opportunity to defend the level. If 1.1571 breaks, then the levels of interest are 1.1547 and 1.1522. If price action continues to head higher then the resistance levels are 1.1600-1.1625 and above that 1.1659.

I am currently more bearish as long as the price action remains beneath 1.1625. This would change if price action moves higher and closes above the 1.1625 level and the falling trend line. For now, all rallies should be expected to be more corrective in nature with 1.1571 being the main breakout level to watch.

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USD/JPY Eyes Breakout as Rising Yields Support US DollarUS Dollar Price Forecast: DXY Eyes 99.58 as Jobs Week Tests Hawkish Fed; Eyes on EUR/USD and GBP/USDEUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD Short-Term Forecast for 31/08/2026About the Author

Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

Latest news and analysis

Gold prices fell in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 8,676.91 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,720.13 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,205.70 per tola from PHP 101,709.90 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

8,676.91

10 Grams

86,769.07

Tola

101,205.70

Troy Ounce

269,882.20

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The AUD/USD pair drops to a one-and-a-half-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday and currently trades around the 0.7135 region, down for the second straight day.

The initial market reaction to Australia's better-than-expected Q2 GDP print fades rather quickly amid some follow-through US Dollar (USD) buying, bolstered by rising US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and escalating US-Iran tensions. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair is to the downside and backs the case for an extension of the recent pullback from levels just above the 0.7200 mark, or the highest since mid-May, touched last Friday.

Any subsequent fall is more likely to find decent support near the 0.7125 confluence – comprising the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August rally. This, in turn, suggests a supportive technical backdrop, even as the Relative Strength Index (14) eases back toward the mid-30s. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hints at waning momentum rather than an outright bearish reversal.

A convincing break below the said support, however, would expose subsequent Fibonacci supports near 0.7074, 0.7033 and 0.6992, with broader structure extending toward 0.6934 and 0.6860. On the top side, the 0.7170 horizontal zone could act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 0.7200 mark, which, if conquered, will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders. Nevertheless, the AUD/USD pair keeps the short-term bullish tone intact as long as it sustains trading above the 0.7125 confluence.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in Australia during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of Australian economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) releases the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on a quarterly basis. It is published about 65 days after the quarter ends. The indicator is closely watched, as it paints an important picture for the economy. A strong labor market, rising wages and rising private capital expenditure data are critical for the country’s improved economic performance, which in turn impacts the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy decision and the Australian dollar. Actual figures beating estimates is considered AUD bullish, as it could prompt the RBA to tighten its monetary policy.

Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 508.56 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 511.11 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,931.70 per tola from AED 5,961.50 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

508.56

10 Grams

5,085.56

Tola

5,931.70

Troy Ounce

15,817.93

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 559.38 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 562.81 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,524.55 per tola from MYR 6,564.55 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

559.38

10 Grams

5,593.84

Tola

6,524.55

Troy Ounce

17,398.91

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 13,145.36 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,216.51 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 153,324.80 per tola from INR 154,154.80 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

13,145.36

10 Grams

131,454.30

Tola

153,324.80

Troy Ounce

408,877.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold extends its decline on Wednesday, facing enormous pressure due to surging United States (US) Treasury Yields and rising oil prices.

US 10-year bond yields hit fresh almost three-year highIn Asian trade on Wednesday, 10-year US Treasury Yields hit a record high at 4.81%, the highest level seen since November 2023.

Higher yields on interest-bearing assets result in diminishing the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

Strategists at BNY see “fiscal concerns and doubts about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) credibility” as the key culprits behind the latest move in long-dated US yields. They also highlighted that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium led “overnight and swaps rates through the 2y yield all pricing in some tightening to come.”

Although Fed Chair Warsh stopped short of explicit forward guidance in his Jackson Hole address, he “stepped as close to the line as possible in advocating a hike,” with the market now “pricing an almost two-thirds probability for one at the FOMC’s September 16 meeting,” BNY said in a note.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 67% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates in the policy meeting this month.

Oil price reaches $90 mark on renewed Middle East risksThe WTI Oil price has extended its advance on Wednesday, posting a fresh five-week high at $90.78. Oil prices continue to rise as fears of prolonged energy supply disruption have returned due to renewed military aggression between the US and Iran.

On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that Washington is striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for Iran’s "failed attempt" to add sea mines in the Strait, which currently “has no mines.” Trump added that the US base at Jordan successfully knocked down all eight missiles launched by Tehran.

Higher oil prices continue to boost global inflation expectations, a scenario that prompts fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. This bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Gold.

US data awaitedIn Wednesday’s session, investors will keep an eye on the US ADP Employment Change data for August, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. The US private sector is expected to have created 48K fresh jobs, slightly lower than 44K in July.

The US private employment data is expected to have a significant impact on Fed’s interest rate expectations.

Gold Price Technical Analysis: Daily Chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,295.45, maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,409.75. The failure to reclaim this dynamic cap reinforces a downside bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) near 44 suggests soft, but not extreme, negative momentum consistent with a corrective phase rather than a full oversold washout.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $4,409.75, and bulls would need a clear close above this barrier to ease the current downside pressure. With no clear structural supports provided in the dataset, traders may look to recent lows and intraday price action for interim demand zones, while the subdued RSI reading hints that further weakness cannot be ruled out as long as price remains capped beneath the 20-day EMA.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) continued to decline on Wednesday. Spot gold dropped to $4,290 and marked the lowest price since Aug. 7. Silver dropped to $63.60. Both metals were pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and higher Treasury yields. The next clear direction is now the U.S. employment data to be released on Friday.

Oil prices also rose for the third day as tensions between the U.S. and Iran escalated. Brent oil rose over $95 and WTI oil rose over $91. Rising oil prices can help keep inflation high, which can force the Fed to increase interest rates. These risks have weakened gold’s safe haven reaction to the conflict.

The markets now expect 67% probability of a September rate hike. This is up from around 40% a week ago. Fed Governor Michael Barr also indicated that the Fed might have to hike rates if inflation does not slow down quickly. The ADP employment report is due today, followed by the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. Weak employment data may introduce a correction in yields and support a recovery in gold and silver prices. But solid data could boost rate hike expectations and extend the current decline in gold and silver prices.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,220 Support in Focus Before US Jobs Report The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has failed to break above $4,800 and continues to move lower. The immediate support remains the 50-day SMA at $4,220. A break below this level will likely open the door for another strong drop towards the $4,000 area. However, the key event for the gold market is the employment report on Friday. This data will likely drive the next short term move in the precious metals market.

The negative price action in the spot gold market is observed on the weekly chart. The chart shows a failure at the key resistance area of $4,800. The price is moving again toward the ascending trendline support at $4,150. If the price drops again towards this zone and recovers strongly, it will likely form a strong bottom around this level. But a break below $4,000 will likely open the way for another strong drop towards the $3,500 area.

Silver Price Forecast: $60 Support in Focus as Rate Hike Odds Rise The daily chart for spot silver also shows strong resistance at $72. The price has now broken the $64 area. In the short term, the immediate support remains the $60-$61 region. A break below this level will likely trigger strong drop towards the $55 area.

The price is still above the major support zone between $45 and $55. If the price recovers and breaks above $72, it will likely confirm the bottom and continue higher.

The failure at the $72 resistance is evident on the 4-hour chart. The chart shows that the price broke the descending wedge pattern but failed to break above the key level of $72. The price has again moved below the descending wedge pattern, which indicates neutral price action. But a break below $60 may tilt this neutral movement towards bearish price action in the short term.

Gold and Silver Price Outlook Ahead of US Jobs Report Gold and silver remain under pressure as the stronger U.S. dollar, higher Treasury yields and rising rate hike expectations weaken demand. The employment report on Friday will likely decide the next move. Weak data could pull yields lower and support the recovery in both metals from their support zones. But strong data could push gold below $4,220 and silver below $60. Gold must break above $4,800, while silver must clear $72 to restore bullish momentum. Until then, the short term outlook remains weak and price volatility may stay high.

Read more: Will $4,300 Support Hold Amid Fed Rate Hike Fears?

TL;DR: The same Iran escalation is pushing Brent toward $102 through supply risk while dragging Gold toward $4,230 through the rate channel — higher oil raises inflation expectations, higher expected rates raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion, and that rate channel is currently overpowering geopolitical demand for Gold.

War Risk Is Lifting Oil, and Hurting Gold The same geopolitical shock is pushing two major commodities in opposite directions this week. Iran escalation is lifting Brent toward $102 through the supply-risk channel, while the inflation consequences of higher oil are pushing yields higher and Gold toward $4,230. That may look counterintuitive given Gold’s traditional sensitivity to geopolitical uncertainty, but the current market response is coherent: Hormuz risk lifts crude, higher crude threatens more persistent inflation, stronger inflation pressure raises the expected path of interest rates, and higher yields become a headwind for bullion.

So this isn’t a story about Gold somehow ignoring war risk. It’s a story about the rate channel overpowering geopolitical demand.

Conflict Has Moved Beyond a Contained Exchange The latest escalation is also materially broader than the weekend clash. US strikes on Tuesday went beyond the limited operation on Larak Island and targeted Iranian air defenses, radar systems, maritime facilities, mine-laying capabilities, and communications infrastructure around the Gulf and Hormuz. Iran didn’t absorb those strikes — it retaliated with missile and drone attacks against US-linked targets across the region.

That changes the forward question. US President Donald Trump had already warned that Iranian retaliation would trigger a stronger US response. Iran has now retaliated, so the oil market is no longer asking whether Tehran responds — it’s asking whether Washington now carries out the threatened next round. That creates a potential self-reinforcing cycle: US strike → Iranian retaliation → larger US retaliation → greater risk to Hormuz and Gulf infrastructure.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Brent: Break Above 94.83 Puts 102 Back in View Technically, Brent’s rally from 84.56 has accelerated through 94.83 resistance, suggesting the consolidation from 102.00 may have completed with three waves down to 84.56. That strengthens the case that the larger rise from 70.14 is resuming.

Further upside is favored while Brent holds above the 55 4H EMA near 90.10. The immediate target is a retest of 102.00, followed by 104.23, the 61.8% projection of 70.14 to 102.00 from 84.56.

The more important level may be 104.23. A decisive break would suggest the market is no longer merely restoring the geopolitical premium lost during previous de-escalation, but beginning to price a materially larger Gulf supply shock. In that case, the next target of the 100% projection at 116.39 would come into view.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: Rates Overwhelm Geopolitical Demand Gold is expressing the same shock from the opposite direction. The fall from 4,697.07 has broken the 4,324.23 structural support area, the 50% retracement of 3,942.43 to 4,697.07 at 4,319.75, and the 55-day EMA around 4,337.66. Taken together, those breaks strengthen the case that the rebound from 3,942.43 has already completed.

Near-term risk remains lower while Gold stays below the 55 4H EMA around 4,478.21. The next important downside level is 4,230.70, the 61.8% retracement of 3,942.43 to 4,697.07. A sustained break there would expose 3,942.43 again.

Gold’s weakness doesn’t mean geopolitical risk has stopped mattering. Instead, this episode is producing a stronger competing force. Higher oil raises concern that inflation will stay elevated longer, reinforcing expectations that the Fed and other major central banks may need to maintain or increase restrictive policy. Higher yields then raise the opportunity cost of holding bullion.

Three Tests Will Decide Whether This Move Extends First, does Trump follow through with another retaliation? A larger US strike after Iran’s response would raise the probability of a prolonged military cycle.

Second, does Hormuz remain physically usable? Recovering tanker flows would cap the oil premium; renewed disruption would make a breakout above 100 much more durable.

Third, do yields continue following oil higher? If Brent approaches 102 and bond yields keep climbing, Gold’s move toward 4,230 would remain consistent with the current macro mechanism. If yields stop responding even while crude stays high, Gold could begin separating from the oil shock, and geopolitical demand could regain influence.

For now, both charts are pointing in the same macro direction even though prices are moving opposite ways: Brent is breaking resistance because supply risk is rising, while Gold is breaking support because inflation consequences are raising the cost of money.

Key Takeaways Brent and Gold are moving in opposite directions from the same Iran escalation: supply risk lifts oil, while the resulting inflation and rate expectations pressure Gold. Iran’s retaliation against US strikes shifts the key question from whether Tehran responds to whether Washington escalates further, creating a potential self-reinforcing cycle. Brent’s break above 94.83 opens a retest of 102.00 and then 104.23; a break of 104.23 would signal markets are pricing a larger Gulf supply shock, not just restoring lost premium. Gold has broken its 4,324.23 structural support, with 4,230.70 as the next downside target and 3,942.43 exposed on a sustained break below that. The key confirmation to watch is whether yields keep following oil higher; if yields stop responding while oil stays elevated, Gold could decouple and geopolitical demand could return.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Key Highlights

GBP/USD failed to surpass 1.3675 and started a downside correction. It traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.3570 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil prices started a fresh surge and surpassed $88.00. EUR/USD started consolidating losses above the 1.1550 support. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound struggled near 1.3675 and dipped against the US Dollar. GBP/USD traded below 1.3620 and 1.3600 to enter a short-term bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 1.3570. The bears pushed the pair toward the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3273 swing low to the 1.3675 high.

The pair even settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). If there are more losses, the pair might find bids near 1.3520.

The first major support could be near 1.3480 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour) or the 50% Fib retracement level. A downside break and close below 1.3480 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 1.3425. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.3350.

On the upside, GBP/USD could face resistance near the 1.3580 level. The next major resistance might be 1.3600. A close above 1.3600 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3620. Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.3650.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil prices, the price gained bullish pace, and the bulls could now aim for a move toward the $92.00 level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

Fed’s Beige Book. US ADP Employment Change for August 2026 – Forecast 48K, versus 44K previous.

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Titan FX is a technology driven online ECN forex and commodities broker that provides traders with next generation trading conditions, institutional grade spreads, fast trade execution, deep top tier liquidity and the security of financial registration and oversight.

On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7829 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7809 and 6.7238 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

The shared currency edges lower, capped by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1633, amid rising geopolitical tensions and escalating hostilities between the US and Iran, prompting investors to buy the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the EUR/USD trades at 1.1590, down 0.25%.

The EUR/USD retreats below the 200-day SMA towards the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, the first support area.  The Relative Strength Index (RSI) I above 50, bullish but aims lower, a signal that sellers are gaining strength.

For a bearish continuation, the EUR/USD must clear the 100-day SMA. This will expose the August 13 swing low of 1.1511, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1494. Below, the next support is the 1.1400 psychological level, before the trend resumes lower highs and lower lows.

Buyers must push the pair above the 200-day SMA, ahead of the 1.1700 psychological level. A decisive breakout will expose the May 6 high at 1.1796.

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

August manufacturing came in slightly below expectations. July job openings were roughly in line with forecasts. Neither number was soft enough to take the September trade apart. The data is not settling the argument. It is leaving the door open for Warsh to walk through.

ADP employment data arrives Wednesday. Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report is the larger test. Economists expect 56,000 jobs added in August. A firm report with stronger wages keeps the 68% odds where they are and gold sellers stay in control. A soft number forces a repricing and gives the metal room to find a floor.

What to Watch Friday’s payrolls report decides whether the 68% September odds hold or crack. ADP lands Wednesday. Warsh and Barr both made the same call this week and crude above $90 WTI is not giving either one a reason to soften it. The 10-year is near 4.8%. The dollar is at 99.70. Gold dropped $113 Tuesday with a war bid sitting right in front of it. That tells you which trade the market is running.

Gold is pressing into the intermediate retracement zone at $4,319.60 to $4,216.06 with the swing bottom at $4,311.04 right inside it. The 50-day moving average sits at $4,216.08 below that. The 200-day break from Friday started this move. Tuesday’s $113 drop accelerated it. The retracement zone is the first place value buyers showed up on the last pullback. Below it, the broader support area runs down to $3,942.10.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

How long will the gold bull market last?

Forever.

That’s the view of Ned Davis Research Chief Alternative Strategist John LaForge.

Granted, he didn’t say “forever,” but that’s the implication of his comments on Kitco News.

“I think prices peak when we learn how to deal with the debt situation. The longer we let it go, and we don’t pay this stuff back, and we keep piling all these debts up, the higher gold prices can go.”

Given that nobody is willing to do what it takes to “deal with the debt situation,” gold prices will ostensibly go up forever, or until the fiat system finally implodes.

“All I know is the trend is up until we deal with government debt,” LaForge said. “I think we can still see multiple years of higher prices because I don’t get the sense at all that, globally, politicians and leaders want to deal with it.”

He’s right. 

Here in the U.S., the government continues to spend over half a billion every single month despite $40 trillion in outstanding debt. So far in fiscal 2026, Uncle Sam has spent $6.28 trillion. That’s a 3.3 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

A 3.3 percent increase in spending might not sound significant. But weren't we told there would be spending cuts?

DOGE seemed promising, but once the headlines faded, spending continued unabated. The “Big Beautiful Bill” cut some spending but added more.

So, despite some non-specific talk about “spending cuts,” there seems to be little to no commitment to tackle runaway spending in Congress or the White House. In fact, the powers-that-be constantly find new reasons to spend money, whether it is a crisis at home or a war overseas.

LaForge said he doesn’t see any off-ramp in the future.

“There’s no way to pay this thing beyond just debasing everything. This is the biggest tailwind gold has had.”

In fact, analysts call the pivot from dollar-denominated assets to gold and silver the “debasement trade.”

Even after gold’s meteoric rise of the last couple of years, LaForge said there is still plenty of room to run higher. In fact, he said he thinks we are in the early stages of a broader commodity “super-cycle.”

“We have plenty of room for this thing.”

Central banks apparently see the writing on the wall. They are piling up gold.

LaForge characterized the yellow metal as one of the few “bearer assets” that can be owned outside the credit system. A bearer asset is defined as a financial or digital item that belongs entirely to whoever physically holds or controls it, with no registration or official record of ownership.

That means gold carries no counterparty risk.

“There just aren’t many bearer assets that you as a central bank can hold where everyone in the world pretty much agrees, if you sent them a bar of gold, they’d say, ‘All right, I’ll take payment for that,’” LaForge said.

Could this be a historical moment for gold?

LaForge said he thinks so, saying, “Gold has such a unique time in history.”

“This is the time it’s all coming together.”

To receive free commentary and analysis on the gold and silver markets, click here to be added to the Money Metals news service.

The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.

RBC still sees the gold price grinding towards $5,000 despite the latest selloff, with investor and central-bank flows underpinning its high-conviction view. The Gold price fell sharply again on Tuesday, with our XAU/USD rate around $4,355, down 2.1% on the day after ending August near $4,450.

RBC Capital Markets is sticking with a substantially higher path.

“We remain of the view that gold should spend most of its time in the $4500-5000/oz range for what remains of this year,” RBC said, describing that view as “unchanged and with high conviction”.

By year-end, the bank is “leaning towards our 2026 high scenario ($4929/oz)”, while for 2027 it favours a high scenario averaging $5,296.

That bullish stance survived Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole shock.

“Warsh's Jackson Hole comments did see gold decline, but it's unclear to us if anything for gold has truly changed,” RBC said.

The bank argues that stress in the US Treasury market is actually “a bigger positive for gold, outweighing the potential impact of current elevated yields”.

That claim is being tested now.

Gold dropped to a two-week low on Tuesday as US Treasury yields rose sharply, the Dollar strengthened and markets lifted the probability of a September Fed hike to around 66%. Reuters reported spot gold falling more than 2%.

Investor Flows Keep RBC Bullish The stronger part of RBC's case is the return of actual buying.

“Q3-to-date has seen the tide turn,” the bank said, with gold-backed ETP inflows surging since mid-July and particularly quickly through August.

“All regions have seen positive inflows over the past month,” while RBC expects 208 tonnes of net ETP inflows in 2026.

Central banks remain important too.

“We expect 745 tons of official sector demand this year,” RBC said, with slightly more forecast for 2027.

We saw the first evidence of that renewed investor demand in our recent look at RBC's gold-flow data, when ETF holdings and speculative positioning were already turning higher.

RBC's conclusion is unusually direct:

“Gold did not just fall out of a coconut tree, it exists in the context of concern, uncertainty, and an uneven macro landscape.”

“We still think the $4500-5000/oz range is the sweet spot for gold for the medium term,” with the bank “grinding towards $5000/oz before year-end and higher in 2027.”

At $4,355, that forecast now implies a meaningful rebound.

The next test is whether stronger yields keep forcing liquidation, or whether RBC is right that the Dollar, debt concerns and renewed investor flows have become more important than rates alone.

XAU/USD Current Price: $4,345 Fresh United States attacks on Iran fueled speculation about mounting inflationary pressures.The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond surged to its highest in over a year. XAU/USD trades at fresh two-week lows and aims to extend its slump.The US Dollar (USD) accelerates its advance against the precious metal in the American session on Tuesday, following news indicating United States (US) forces launched attacks on Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targets in Iran, as reported by the US Central Command (CENTCOM). Explosions were reported on Qeshm Island, around the Strait of Hormuz, and across southern Iran.  

Crude Oil prices soared with the headlines, while bond yields followed through amid prospects of mounting inflationary pressures leading to interest rate hikes. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond surged to its highest since January 2025, currently hovering around 4.79%.

 The US decision to strike its rival came after recent attacks on commercial vessels and US personnel in the region. Also, US President Donald Trump was said to be considering a CENTCOM  plan for limited attacks aimed at preventing Tehran from rebuilding radar and missile capabilities.

Earlier in the day, the US reported that the manufacturing sector lost some momentum, as the August ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell from 55.6 in July to 54.6, also missing expectations of 55.2. Additionally, the number of job openings rose slightly to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million in June, according to the JOLTS Job Opening report. The reading also came below expectations of 7.3 million.

XAU/USD Technical Outlook:

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD is bearish, as it holds below both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,474.45 and the 100-period SMA at $4,482.54. The metal is still supported by the 200-period SMA at $4,295.85, but downside pressure dominates, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heading firmly south, despite being in oversold territory.

Technical readings in the daily chart support the bearish case as the pair extends its slide below the 100-day SMA at $4,365.54, after failing to recover beyond the 20-day SMA at $4,443.71. The same chart shows that the Momentum indicator has slipped into negative territory, while the RSI pierces its midline, hinting at mounting selling pressure.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA at $4,474.45, followed by the 100-period SMA at $4,482.54, where recovery attempts could stall. On the downside, immediate support aligns with the current price area near $4,345.41, ahead of the more significant 200-period SMA at $4,295.85, a break of which would open the door to a deeper corrective leg despite the already oversold momentum backdrop.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bitcoin (BTC) maintains sideways trading around the immediate $78,000 support on Tuesday. The Crypto King outlook shows signs of cooling after the recent rally above $81,000. However, its downside remains protected, with major moving averages providing support and steady capital inflows absorbing some selling pressure.

Meanwhile, Gold (XAU/USD) maintains a neutral-to-bearish technical outlook, trading slightly below $4,400. This marks a 7% drop from its August peak of $4,697 and exerts pressure on support established by the main moving averages.

US JOLTS Job Openings tick upUnited States (US) job openings edged up to 7.271 million in July from 7.182 million in June, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) release, marginally missing consensus forecasts of 7.3 million.

The BLS also noted that hires and total separations were largely unchanged at 5.1 million, with quits (3.1 million) and layoffs/discharges (1.7 million) showing minimal movement.

JOLTS figures help gauge labor demand in the world’s largest economy. However, the data is a month delayed. Although the increase is slight, it could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) likelihood of raising interest rates, especially with inflation still above the 2% target.

Market participants are currently pricing in a 66% probability that the Fed will increase the rates to the 3.75%-4.00% range in September’s review cycle, up from 60% last week and 33% the previous month, according to CME's FedWatch tool.

FedWatch tool | Source: CME GroupCapital inflows surge as Bitcoin stallsCryptocurrency-related funds experienced a notable increase in inflows last week to more than $3.2 billion, their largest weekly intake since October 2025. BlackRock’s IBIT, the largest crypto Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), recorded $928 million in inflows last week, building on the previous week’s $1.3 billion and marking its strongest two-week run since October 2025.

“As a result, crypto funds have averaged over $1.3 billion in weekly inflows over the last four weeks, their largest four-week average in ten months,” The Kobeissi Letter highlighted in an X post.

Meanwhile, Gold funds recorded more than $7.3 billion in inflows last week, also their largest uptake in ten months.

Crypto fund inflows | Source: The Kobeissi Letter“Market signals remain healthy overall, with soft derivatives activity, encouraging ETF flows and spot volumes cooling from last week’s extreme levels,” K33 Research said in a weekly market report, adding “BTC is also behaving more like Gold than US equities, with its 90-day Gold correlation at an all-time high and its Nasdaq correlation near yearly lows.”

Technical analysis: Bitcoin tests short-term supportBitcoin trades at $78,251, extending its advance well above the key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), suggesting a firmly bullish near-term bias with layered trend support beneath the price. Momentum remains constructive, as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with a still-above-zero line and a fading but positive profile, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 69 hovers just below overbought, hinting at strong but maturing upside pressure.

BTC/USDT daily chartOn the downside, initial support lies at the $72,348 region marked by the 200-day EMA, which underpins the broader uptrend, followed by the 50-day EMA at $70,044 and the 100-day EMA at $69,089 as a deeper demand zone if a corrective pullback unfolds.

With no nearby technical resistance in the current dataset on the daily chart, the pair’s topside remains open, and traders will likely monitor price around the immediate $78,000 support area for signs of consolidation, especially as RSI flirts with overbought levels and MACD momentum gradually cools.

Gold technical analysis: XAU slides as support flips into resistanceGold holds a bullish near-term bias as the metal remains above the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, clustered between roughly $4,315 and $4,364, suggesting a still-supported uptrend despite the recent pullback.

The descending trendline now runs below the spot price, with its break point around $4,271 acting as an additional structural floor, while the RSI has eased to 48, hinting at consolidative rather than impulsive downside.

At the same time, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has retreated into negative territory, reinforcing waning bullish momentum rather than a full trend reversal as long as price holds above these underlying averages.

XAU/USDT daily chartImmediate support lies at the 100-day EMA near $4,364, followed by the 50-day EMA at $4,337 and the 200-day EMA at $4,315, all forming a dense demand zone that could attract dip buyers on further weakness. Below this cluster, the descending trendline break around $4,271 is the next key level to watch, where a daily close under that area would significantly weaken the bullish structure and open the door to a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.

The Australian dollar reversed off a multi-year resistance zone after an eight-week advance, leaving U.S. jobs data to set the next move. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the weekly, daily and four-hour charts and explains where the uptrend stays intact and what would signal it is breaking.

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that positioning in Gold remains resilient despite a more hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Fed Chair Warsh. While the recent rally is seen as premature given lingering inflation concerns and renewed hike pricing for 2027, they argue the broader backdrop has improved and do not foresee material downside as Dollar debasement and uncertain Fed hikes support precious metals.

Yellow metal holds firm post-Jackson Hole"Fed Chair Warsh struck a more hawkish tone in his Jackson Hole speech as he acknowledged the inflation concerns."

"This has sapped some life from the precious metals complex as expected, but thus far pricing has remained well-supported."

"Hike pricing has increased to just over two hikes in 2027 again, and we have argued the recent rally in gold was too early due to these lingering inflation concerns."

"Moving forward, we do not anticipate material downside for the yellow metal as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain."

"Positioning in gold is holding firm in the aftermath of a more hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, while renewed tensions in the Middle East see CTAs turn buyers in crude oil."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

USD/CHF ticks higher on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) recoups most of the previous day’s losses. Hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations and rising US Treasury yields keep the Greenback underpinned near its recent highs. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8103, up roughly 0.24% on the day.

Fed rate hike expectations have strengthened following Chair Kevin Warsh’s tough stance on inflation at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Warsh said the central bank would have more work to do if policymakers were not confident that inflation was returning to the 2% target. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders now see around a 65% probability of a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting.

In contrast, subdued inflation in Switzerland, near the lower end of the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0%-2% price-stability range, supports expectations that the central bank will keep its policy rate unchanged at 0% at its upcoming meetings. Switzerland’s August Consumer Price Index (CPI) data are due on Wednesday. Headline inflation is expected to be flat on a monthly basis after declining 0.1% in July, while the annual rate is forecast to rise to 0.5% from 0.4%.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, USD/CHF holds above the key moving averages and retains a constructive bullish tone. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8091 underpins the pair as immediate support, with the 100-day SMA at 0.7987 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7934 reinforcing a broader positive backdrop.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 54 suggests moderate upside momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned slightly positive, hinting that buying pressure is gradually rebuilding after a recent pullback.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the horizontal barrier at 0.8150, ahead of a higher cap at 0.8200, where fresh offers could emerge. On the downside, a daily close below the 50-day SMA at 0.8091 would weaken the short-term bias and expose the next support layers at 0.7987 and 0.7934, where the longer-term SMAs are clustered and would be expected to attract dip-buying interest.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.22%0.13%0.22%0.22%0.25%0.25%0.24%EUR-0.22%-0.08%0.02%-0.01%0.03%0.02%0.02%GBP-0.13%0.08%0.09%0.09%0.11%0.11%0.10%JPY-0.22%-0.02%-0.09%-0.00%0.01%0.03%-0.00%CAD-0.22%0.00%-0.09%0.00%0.02%0.00%-0.01%AUD-0.25%-0.03%-0.11%-0.01%-0.02%0.00%-0.04%NZD-0.25%-0.02%-0.11%-0.03%-0.01%-0.00%-0.01%CHF-0.24%-0.02%-0.10%0.00%0.01%0.04%0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Industrial Demand and Key Technical Levels That being said, the World Silver Survey looks for industrial consumption to fall 3% in 2026, partially because of everything going on. And there have been some pundits out there marking down their longer-term forecast for the year to $68, such as major bank ING.

Ultimately, this is a market that is testing a couple of major moving averages, and if we were to break down below there, we could see a return to the $60 level. That’s an area that had been significant support previously. $70 still looks to be a bit resistant, and right now, we’re right in the middle of that with these moving averages.

Keep in mind the jobs report is on Friday, so the later we get into the week, the choppier and more sideways this could become, as we wait for that major news release.

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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.