Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Commerzbank’s Thu Lan Nguyen analyzes EUR/USD’s sharp decline since September, initially driven by broad US Dollar strength and later by Euro-specific concerns over France’s public finances. She argues that as long as German Bunds retain their safe-haven role, Euro downside should be limited, and projects EUR/USD recovering next year, with forecasts rising from 1.15 in December 2026 to 1.18 by December 2027.

Euro pressured but downside constrained"EUR/USD has declined markedly since September. Initially, the move was driven by broad-based US dollar strength amid a more supportive interest rate outlook. Since early October, however, euro weakness has taken center stage, reflecting growing concerns over the sustainability of France’s public finances."

"That said, as long as German government bonds retain their safe-haven appeal, the euro’s downside should remain limited. With energy markets expected to ease and interest rate expectations to readjust, we see scope for EUR/USD to recover next year."

"EUR/USD fell to its lowest level since spring 2025 in mid-October. The downward move, which began in September, can be divided into two phases."

"We expect the US dollar to suffer more from such a correction than the euro, not least because lower energy prices should improve the economic outlook for the euro area by more than for the US. We therefore see further upside potential for EUR/USD next year."

"If, however, conditions in bond markets stabilize, we see scope for the single currency to recover in the short term. This is supported by the fact that, if necessary, the ECB has effective crisis-management tools at its disposal, such as the Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold – Potential for the bigger downside and break of the support [Video]

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Rejection at 0.8270 leaves key support at 0.8225 exposed

Canadian Dollar Forecast: Loonie Gains as Softer Core Inflation Tests Rate Bets The Canadian Dollar has strengthened, but CIBC eyes renewed pressure if the Fed raises rates while softer domestic inflation lets the BoC hold. The Canadian Dollar extended its recovery on Tuesday, pushing the US Dollar-to-Canadian Dollar exchange rate down.

Indian Rupee Forecast: BofA Sees USD/INR at 99 Despite Recovery The Indian Rupee is recovering, but BofA and MUFG expect renewed losses as RBI support leaves oil costs and underlying US Dollar demand unresolved. The Dollar-to-Rupee exchange rate fell to 94.72 early on Tuesday, down 0.29% on the day as the Indian currency extended its recovery.

The stronger Rupee is moving away from both Bank of America and MUFG's projections for renewed depreciation in 2027, despite central-bank measures that have curbed immediate demand for Dollars.

BofA forecasts USD/INR at 99 in September 2027, against MUFG's 97.50 for the same quarter.

That puts BofA's projection roughly 4.5% above Tuesday's rate.

Both banks' forecasts predate the latest US waiver of Russia-related sanctions and tariffs.

The waiver offers India relief from an additional trade threat, while the Reserve Bank of India's currency measures have already helped to reverse some Rupee weakness.

Neither development necessarily resolves the financing pressures behind the banks' forecasts.

Oil importers get relief, but Dollar demand can return BofA's Abhay Gupta identifies a cost to the RBI's success in reducing immediate demand for Dollars: some of that demand may simply have been postponed.

The measures divert state-owned oil importers' currency purchases away from the market, raise the cost of importers' forward hedging and signal tighter liquidity conditions.

That can make the Rupee less vulnerable to concentrated buying of Dollars, but protecting the exchange rate uses resources the central bank may later need to replenish.

Gupta writes: "However, these steps would still weigh on the RBI's net FX reserves which would need to be re-built in the future."

"Thus, it does little more than provide a near-term respite for INR while increasing the medium-term challenges for the RBI, in our view. Similarly, discouraging importers' forward hedging would create pent-up demand for hedging as and when these measures are reversed."

Hedging allows an importer to secure an exchange rate for a future payment.

Making it more expensive can discourage that transaction today without removing the underlying need to pay an overseas supplier later.

Gupta nevertheless favours a dedicated facility for oil imports: "FX window for oil import demand is a more effective usage of RBI's reserves, rather than broad-based market intervention. Diverting oil importer demand would be the most impactful (assuming take-up is higher than previously announced USD credit line in Apr'26) as it reduces the effective CA gap for market to less than USD 10Bn in 4Q (which will still need RBI smoothing in the market)."

The current-account financing gap left for the market would shrink, but only if importers make sufficient use of the facility.

The US waiver changes the risks around the forecasts President Donald Trump's executive order waives new duties and sanctions under the Graham Act, including additional tariffs aimed at major buyers of Russian energy.

The order leaves earlier sanctions under existing executive orders intact, and the waivers can be reconsidered by the US administration.

For India, the pause eases the threat of a further 100% US tariff linked to purchases of Russian oil, as The Indian Express reports.

Our reading is that this reduces an external risk to the Rupee, but does not by itself establish that India's energy import bill will fall enough to reverse the banks' currency outlooks.

Before the waiver, MUFG's Michael Wan identified several sources of demand for foreign currency:

"A wider current-account deficit, elevated oil prices and continued gross FDI repatriation linked to India's strong IPO pipeline remain sources of dollar demand."

Foreign investors converting proceeds from Indian investments into overseas currency can put pressure on the Rupee even when domestic growth is healthy.

That problem was already evident in MUFG's earlier assessment of persistent Dollar demand despite larger RBI reserves.

The latest measures have had a more immediate effect on trading, according to Wan:

"The steps reduced speculative NDF demand and spot dollar buying, helping reverse part of the earlier rupee weakness, although the adjustment came with higher hedging costs and thinner liquidity in onshore forwards."

NDFs are non-deliverable forward contracts used to trade currencies offshore, while onshore forwards allow participants to agree a future exchange rate in India.

Higher rates may already be reflected in market prices The RBI has raised its repo rate to 5.50%, but MUFG questions whether the central bank will deliver all the tightening investors have anticipated.

Wan says: "We think the RBI has turned hawkish, but not enough to validate the tightening already priced into INR rates."

"We maintain one further 25bp hike in February 2027, taking the repo rate to 5.75%, with some risk that it eventually reaches 6.00%."

BofA sees a greater risk that defending the currency will ultimately require a more aggressive hiking cycle.

Gupta writes: "With domestic pressures (strong growth, higher inflation) well-aligned towards need for tighter monetary policy, these measures raise the risks of RBI undertaking more aggressive hiking cycle to lean-on rate-differentials to support INR."

For MUFG, cheaper Rupee valuations and softer short-term US yields offer support alongside RBI intervention.

Its forecast nevertheless allows renewed depreciation without a disorderly sell-off: "For FX, we continue to see USD/INR moving gradually higher over time, but with the topside capped by RBI intervention."

USD/INR Exchange Rate FAQ What do BofA and MUFG forecast for USD/INR?

BofA projects 99 for September 2027, while MUFG expects 97.50 in the third quarter. Both imply a weaker Rupee than Tuesday's 94.72 rate.

Why can the Rupee weaken despite RBI support?

Intervention can reduce immediate market pressure, but oil payments and investors repatriating funds still create demand for Dollars. BofA also warns that deferred hedging demand can return.

Does the US waiver remove all Russia-related sanctions?

No. The order waives new measures under the Graham Act while leaving earlier sanctions under existing executive orders intact.

Gold's (XAU/USD) paper and physical markets are telling two different stories right now. On the charts, FXStreet's Dhwani Mehta sees sellers firmly in control below the 21-day SMA at $4,180, with Gold slipping to $4,144. But in India, the world's second-largest Gold consumer, the physical market just flipped to a premium for the first time in three months, as Mike Maharrey of Money Metals reports dealers are charging up to $7 an ounce over spot. One camp says sell the bounce; the other shows buyers stepping in on dips.

Gold daily chartFXStreet's Dhwani Mehta: Gold remains a 'sell-on-bounce' tradeMehta's call is unambiguous: "Gold remains a 'sell-on-bounce' trade amid a bearish daily technical setup and geopolitical risks at play." Price is trading beneath all major daily Simple Moving Averages (SMA) - the 21-day SMA at $4,180, 100-day SMA at $4,235, 50-day SMA at $4,321 - and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.5 signals weak momentum rather than oversold exhaustion. She cites Societe Generale's caution that Gold "has not managed at all to capitalize on jitters in equities and credit," and concludes that "the upside for prices would be limited and Treasuries remain the go-to refuge." — Read the full report

Money Metals Exchange's Mike Maharrey: Demand has historically remained resilientMaharrey's focus is the physical market, and it is tightening, not collapsing. "Gold traded at a premium in India last week for the first time in three months," he reports, with prices dipping to Rs145,538 per 10 grams, pulling buyers in as the festive season builds toward Dhanteras (November 6) and Diwali (November 8). Supply is being squeezed by design: imports plunged 45% in August after the government raised import duty from 6% to 15%, and several large Indian mutual funds have suspended bulk subscriptions to gold ETFs following "a nudge from the Securities and Exchange Board of India." His conclusion cites Metals Focus: Indian demand "has historically remained resilient in a higher-tax environment," and consumers "typically adjust to higher price levels over time" - with elevated duties risking "a recovery in unofficial flows." — Read the full report

The takeawayThe split is between the derivative market and the physical market. Mehta's technical map caps every bounce below a stacked SMA wall and points to $4,067, then $3,997-$3,990, if selling extends. Maharrey's evidence from India suggests real-world buying absorbs weakness - premiums, not discounts- in the run-up to the heaviest Gold-buying season of the year. Watch whether the 21-day SMA at $4,180 holds as resistance for the paper traders, and whether Indian premiums keep expanding for the physical camp. Whichever cracks first tells you the next move.

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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  GBPUSD met the target at the 1.3350-1.3400 zone. The market could hold this trading zone between  support zone 1.3140-60 and resistance 1.3350-1.3400.

Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 0.35% higher at around $57.30 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The white metal rises as United States (USD) Treasury Yields come under pressure after a sharp upside move the previous day.

As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields are down 0.5% to near 5.12%. Yields on US-backed securities gained almost 1.2% to near 5.14%. Theoretically, a drop in US bond yields comes in as a relief of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Lower US bond yields have also weighed on the US Dollar (USD). In European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.22% lower to near 101.75.

AI growth concerns hit long-end yieldsAccording to Deutsche Bank, mounting “Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related growth concerns helped to drive a decent rally for sovereign bonds,” with the US 10-year Treasury yield falling “down -16.5bps last week (+1.5bps Friday) to 5.07%.” Strategists highlight that “it was the biggest weekly decline for the 10yr yield since August 2025,” while the “30yr Treasury yield fell -17.5bps (+1.5bps Friday) in its biggest weekly decline since April 2025,” underscoring the intensity of the move at the long end of the curve.

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $57.34, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it remains capped beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.85. Price action stays below this key dynamic barrier, suggesting rallies are likely to face selling interest, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 38.15 holds in bearish territory just above oversold, hinting that downside pressure persists but is not yet extreme.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA at $59.85 is the immediate resistance level that bulls need to reclaim to alleviate the current negative bias. On the downside, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Euro: French fiscal risks limit recovery against US Dollar – ING

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Declines below 1.4100, but holds mildly bullish bias above key support

CAD/JPY price outlook: Rebounds from 1 (100%) Arc – Potential decline toward 111.98

The Pound-Australian Dollar could remain under pressure if UK jobs data weakens BoE hike expectations, while hawkish RBA signals may keep the Aussie supported. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate opened this week’s session on the defensive, following hawkish remarks from a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) policymaker.

At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.8896. Down around 0.4% from the start of Monday’s European session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.331469 (-0.12%)

Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.6983 (+0.54%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened on Monday after Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent suggested that interest rates may need to rise further if inflation remains stubbornly elevated

Speaking at a banking conference, Kent highlighted evidence that underlying inflationary pressures remain persistent, while questioning whether monetary policy is restrictive enough to bring price growth sustainably back towards the RBA’s target.

Kent also acknowledged that there are signs that the labour market is cooling, but stressed that markets shouldn’t read too much into a single month of data.

This follows last week’s abysmal jobs report, which triggered significant weakness in the Australian Dollar after reporting a sharp fall in employment growth last month.

If the RBA is willing to look past September’s jobs data, it increases the odds that the bank might deliver another interest rate hike by the end of the year.

The Pound (GBP) traded in a narrow range on Monday, as investors were reluctant to make significant adjustments to their positions in the currency ahead of a busy week for UK economic data.

This week’s data is headlined by the UK’s latest employment and inflation figures and also includes retail sales and PMI releases at the end of the session.

GBP investors will be looking for fresh insight into how the UK economy is faring amid a fresh rise in energy prices and how this data could influence the Bank of England (BoE) outlook on policy.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Soft Jobs Data to Sap Sterling Sentiment? Looking ahead, the main catalyst of movement for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate on Tuesday will likely be the publication of the UK’s latest employment data.

Consensus estimates predict unemployment will have risen again in August at the same time that wage growth slowed, potentially applying pressure on Sterling if this is seen as weakening the case for the BoE to hike interest rates in the coming months.

Meanwhile, in the absence of any notable domestic data, movement in the ‘Aussie’ is likely to be tied to market risk dynamics on Tuesday, with a cautious mood potentially denting the currency.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The EUR/JPY cross trades with mild losses near 177.70 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. The Euro (EUR) weakens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) as street riots in France raise concerns over political stability. Zew Surveys from Germany and the Eurozone will be released later on Tuesday. Also, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker José Luis Escrivá is set to speak.

French authorities have imposed overnight curfews in parts of central Paris and other cities after a weekend of riots and looting across the country, per the BBC. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu said on Monday that he was “fully resolved to restore public order” and had called for “local and partial” curfews if needed. There was “no question” of imposing a full curfew on entire cities, he said.

On the Japanese front, hawkish comments from a Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker could underpin the JPY. BoJ policy board member Junko Koeda said that there is no need to be excessively cautious about rate hikes given that upside inflation risks remain substantial.

Meanwhile, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Monday that underlying inflation is "quite close" to the central ‌bank's 2% target, with strong global AI demand adding to inflationary pressure from a tight job market, signalling scope for further rate increases.

Global bond selloff shifts focus to cross-currency rate tradesStrategists at Societe Generale note that the recent global bond rout has been broad-based, with the move in US Treasuries rippling across major markets. They highlight that “the bond selloff has put pressure on bonds everywhere, and a 1% rise in 10yr US yields this year has sent gilts up by 93bp, BTPs by 94bp and OATs by 123bp.”

Societe Generale argues that while this “brings its own narrative to the market,” the extent of the US move means “if the US rate story is getting stretched, that does reinforce the notion that selling EUR/JPY and GBP/AUD here, may be a better risk-reward strategy than selling EUR/USD and GBP/USD at these levels.” In their view, the current backdrop favours cross-currency relative-rate trades over outright Dollar or Pound positions.

Ueda keeps BoJ cautiously hawkish as inflation nears targetUeda’s 7/10 FXS Speechtracker score is slightly below the historic 7.4/10 baseline, but the emphasis on “underlying inflation near 2%” and a positive wages–prices loop marks a mildly hawkish tilt. The focus on demand-led inflation from robust global activity, tight labor markets and domestic capex, alongside warnings that miscalibrated policy could push long-term rates higher, reinforces a narrative that the BoJ is edging closer to further normalization while keeping financial conditions accommodative.

At the same time, Ueda’s insistence on no shift in the fundamental bond taper approach and refusal to preannounce emergency JGB measures signal a desire to avoid market overreaction while retaining flexibility. For FX, the combination of rising inflation, the prospect of steady increases in long-term yields if short-term rates are lifted, and a commitment to stabilizing the JGB market is modestly supportive for the Yen, especially if global risk sentiment remains fragile amid Middle East-driven energy price pressures.

Technical Analysis: Bearish tone of EUR/JPY prevails under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a bearish tone as it holds below the 20-period Bollinger simple moving average and remains well under the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is also capped beneath the upper Bollinger band, reinforcing a downside bias while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 42.80 suggests subdued momentum rather than oversold conditions.

On the downside, initial support level is located at the October 15 low of 176.52. The next contention level to watch is the lower limit of Bollinger band around 175.80, where sellers may consider booking profits on further weakness. 

On the topside, immediate resistance level appears in the 177.95-178.00 zone, representing the 20-period Bollinger SMA and psychological level. A stronger barrier is seen at the upper boundary of Bollinger band near 180.10, while the 100-day SMA at 182.75 marks a major resistance level that would need to be reclaimed to ease the broader bearish pressure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data

The Pound-Dollar rate could come under pressure if UK jobs data weakens BoE hike expectations, while firmer US employment figures may support the Dollar. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was trapped in a narrow range at the start of this week as markets braced for a run of high-impact UK economic releases.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the second successive day, trading around $57.40 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Tuesday. However, Silver prices may fall as elevated oil prices heighten inflation concerns and reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy.

Oil jumps on Strait of Hormuz shipping attacksAnalysts at Rabobank report that oil prices “surged following further reports of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz,” after Iran claimed that “two tankers carrying up to 4 million barrels of crude were struck by marine mines.” The bank notes that the incident has sharply heightened geopolitical risk premia in the energy complex, reinforcing concerns over the security of key Middle East supply routes.

Silver also faces pressure from a stronger US dollar and rising bond yields. Oil prices remained firm amid ongoing hostilities in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, while Iran continued to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged next week, with markets pricing in roughly a 94% probability of a rate hike in December.  Elsewhere, the European Central Bank is expected to implement at least one additional 25-basis-point rate increase this year to address persistent inflationary pressures. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda also noted that underlying inflation was “quite close” to the central bank’s 2% target, signaling the possibility of further monetary tightening.

Analysts at Scotiabank observe that, despite the recent softening in the Dollar, "markets may be reluctant to chase the USD lower into the FOMC at the end of the month." They add that the shift in rate expectations has eroded some of the currency’s yield advantage, noting that "reduced yield support may leave the USD prone to more weakness ahead," even if investors remain cautious about extending bearish positions immediately before the upcoming Fed meeting.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Referenced assets

Hawkish Central Bank Expectations: Persistent inflationary pressures (with U.S. CPI at 3.7% in September) keep central banks hawkish, with market pricing leaning toward further Fed rate hikes or a “higher for longer” policy through early 2027.Opposing Macro Forces on Gold: While high inflation provides safe-haven demand for gold, rising Treasury yields and a strong U.S. dollar from central bank tightening increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, creating downside pressure on gold.Technical Bullish Flag Formation: Despite the recent price retreat from peaks near 5,600 within a descending channel, the technical structure views the move as a potential bullish flag pattern within the long-term uptrend since 2023, supported by key support between 4,000–4,120.

Macroeconomic Drivers & Central Bank Policy

Major central banks and economic bureaus are set to publish crucial inflation metrics in late October and early November 2026, including the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan monetary policy meetings on October 29–30, followed by the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for October on November 10. Recent indicators show persistent inflationary pressure driven by sticky energy and shelter costs, with headline U.S. CPI rising to 3.7% year-over-year in September. These upcoming releases will reveal whether price pressures are structural or temporary, determining whether global headline inflation continues to hover well above the target 2% threshold in major economies.

In response, central banks—most notably the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)—are maintaining a hawkish posture to rein in persistent inflation. Following a 25-basis-point rate hike to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% in September 2026, the FOMC enters its October 27–28 policy meeting under close market scrutiny as officials weigh additional tightening before year-end. If inflation data remain elevated, central banks will keep benchmark rates “higher for longer” or implement incremental rate hikes, thereby dampening economic expansion and cooling consumer demand.

These macroeconomic dynamics exert two opposing forces on gold prices. Higher inflation data initially boosts demand for gold as a traditional inflation hedge and safe-haven store of value. However, persistent inflation triggers hawkish rate responses from the FOMC, driving up real yields on U.S. Treasuries and strengthening the U.S. dollar, thereby increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion and pressuring prices downward. Ultimately, if upcoming CPI prints come in hotter than expected and prompt additional Fed rate hikes, gold is likely to experience short-term selling pressure; conversely, softer inflation data that signals an end to central bank tightening would provide strong tailwinds for a gold rally.

CME FedWatch Rate Expectations

Source: CME FedWatch tool. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

According to CME FedWatch Tool pricing as of October 19, 2026, market expectations are overwhelmingly centered on additional Federal Reserve tightening through early 2027. For the upcoming October 28, 2026 meeting, markets reflect an 82.8% probability that the target rate will settle in the 375–400 bps range (indicating a hold at current levels) and a 17.2% chance of a hike to 400–425 bps. Heading into the final meeting of the year on December 9, 2026, sentiment shifts strongly toward a rate increase, with a 76.5% probability priced for a target range of 400–425 bps and a 15.5% probability placed on a further hike to 425–450 bps.

Looking ahead to the first policy meeting of 2027 on January 27, the market expects rates to remain elevated, with probabilities favoring either maintaining the 400–425 bps target (46.6%) or adjusting upward to the 425–450 bps band (42.1%).

XAU/USD weekly chart technical analysis and COT report updates

Source: XAU/USD W1, OANDA, TradingView. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The price has been moving down within a well-defined descending channel (red trendlines) following a major peak near 5,600. So far, until proven otherwise, the descending channel can be considered a bullish flag formation for the initial long-term uptrend that began in early 2023 and is marked by the blue line.Immediate support lies below price action, between the monthly S1 and the 2023 uptrend, in the 4000-4120 range. A second level of support falls at the annual pivot point of 3829.12.An immediate confluence of resistance lies above price action, at the intersection of the fast EMA9 and the monthly pivot point of 4259.64. A second level of resistance falls near the monthly R1 of 4408.42, intersecting with the upper border of the flag formation.Lagging momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastic Oscillator, remain constructively aligned with the underlying price action, tracking positively without exhibiting severe divergence.The latest COT report released by the CFTC on Friday, October 16th, 2026, which includes data up to the end of day, Tuesday, October 13th, 2026, reflects that the most recent decline in gold price, which began in August of 2026, was accompanied by relatively unchanged open interest and declining volume. This suggests that the COT data did not support the price drop and a potential change in sentiment.

Conclusion

In summary, the outlook for XAU/USD remains framed by a tug-of-war between persistent hawkish central bank expectations and a constructively bullish long-term technical structure. While sustained inflationary pressure and market expectations of “higher for longer” Federal Reserve interest rates present ongoing macroeconomic headwinds—dampening bullion demand via elevated real yields and a strong U.S. dollar—the technical picture suggests that the recent price consolidation forms a bullish flag within a broader secular uptrend. A decisive breakout above immediate technical resistance around the 4,260–4,408 confluence region would signal a resumption of the broader rally, whereas a breakdown below primary support at 4,000–4,120 could expose lower pivot levels near 3,829.

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About the Author

Moheb Hanna

Market Analyst

With over 15 years' experience in the forex markets, on both the research and client relations sides, Moheb specialises in technical, trade-focused market analysis. He has worked at a number of top financial institutions, publishing daily commentary and driving sales for retail and institutional clients. A CMT Charter member, Moheb holds a globally recognised CFTe designation.

With over 15 years' experience in the forex markets, on both the research and client relations sides, Moheb specialises in technical, trade-focused market analysis. He has worked at a number of top financial institutions, publishing daily commentary and driving sales for retail and institutional clients. A CMT Charter member, Moheb holds a globally recognised CFTe designation.

Gold tumbles below $4,150 amid elevated US Treasury yields

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Falling wedge breakout puts 112.00 in play

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Trendline breakout puts 213.00 in sight

Silver (XAG/USD) drifts higher during Monday’s North American session, up 0.38% to $57.21, yet it remains near last week's low of $55.38, suggesting the white metal could be poised for a near-term bearish continuation.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookPrice action shows the downtrend remains intact, as market structure continues to respect successive lower highs and lower lows, while the Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) remain above the current spot price.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish and, despite being flat, is closer to oversold territory, indicating that further downside is expected.

The XAG/USD first support is $57.00. A breach of the latter exposes the psychological key support levels at $56.50, $56.00 and the October 15 low of $55.38. Beneath are $55.00 and the $50.00 mark.

For a bullish reversal, the first resistance is the October 16 high of $57.98. Above lies the $60.00 figure, ahead of challenging the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $63.06. Once hurdled, the next stops are the 50-day SMA at $63.80, then $65.00, and the $70.00 mark.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily 

Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold sags near $4,150 as Oil fuels US yields rebound

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note GBP/USD is little changed as markets await UK labour data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and next week’s budget, where investors expect Chancellor Healey to maintain fiscal discipline. Technically, the British Pound (GBP) has staged a strong bullish weekly reversal from the lower end of its sideways range, with scope to retest 1.3650/75 and initial resistance at the 200-day moving average near 1.3435.

Pound eyes retest of range top
"The GBP is little changed on the session. Spot is marking time ahead of tomorrow’s jobs and wage, with CPI released on Wednesday."

"Next week’s budget is starting to attract a little attention as well, with local reports suggesting that investors are banking on Chancellor Healey maintaining a steady hand on spending and borrowing to boost Gilts."

"Bullish – Solid GBP gains from Wednesday’s post-US CPI low drove a huge bullish weekly reversal on the chart (outside range week)."

"Follow through demand so far has been limited but the scale of last week’s rebound from the weekly low and net gain is hard to ignore."

"With recent price action basing around the low point of the sideways range in place since April, the pound’s solid gain last week should put spot on course to retest the upper end of the range (1.3650/75) in the coming weeks."

"Initial, key resistance sits at 1.3435 (200-day MA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)