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ING’s Chris Turner writes that EUR/USD is grinding higher as markets reverse the earlier sell-off triggered by Kevin Warsh’s speech, with the pair moving back toward 1.1650. A softer Dollar backdrop versus EMFX and pro-growth G10 currencies supports the Euro. Turner also flags German local election risks and sees EUR/GBP holding a range before a potential move to 0.87 in the fourth quarter.

Euro benefits from softer Dollar tone"EUR/USD is drifting higher as markets unwind the moves made on the back of Warsh's speech a week ago. EUR/USD had been trading around 1.1650 before that speech and looks to be grinding back in that direction now."

"The generally offered dollar environment against EMFX and pro-growth currencies in the G10 space is creating a supportive environment for EUR/USD – even if the Fed story is uncertain."

"One left-field risk for the euro is the upcoming local elections in Germany. Major success for the AfD in Sunday's Saxony-Anhalt elections may raise more questions over the stability of Friedrich Merz's government."

"Elsewhere, EUR/GBP is consolidating after breaking above 0.86 yesterday. No doubt the gilt sell-off, and what it means for strained UK public finances, played a role there."

"It seems too early to get the all-clear on inflation, meaning that up to 60bp of BoE tightening can sit in UK money markets for a while longer. That probably means EUR/GBP can trade 0.8550-0.8600 before breaking higher to 0.87 in the fourth quarter."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through and remains capped near mid-1.3500s through the early European session on Friday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the recovery from a nearly three-week low, touched on Wednesday, as traders keenly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).

The closely watched US monthly employment details will be looked upon for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Heading into the key data risk, some repositioning trade helps the Greenback recover part of the previous day's heavy losses to over a one-week low and acts as a headwind for the currency pair.

Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties amid renewed US-Iran hostilities and clashes over the Strait of Hormuz turn out to be another factor underpinning the safe-haven USD. However, reduced bets for a September Fed rate hike, along with soft US bond yields, hold back USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and might act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair, warranting caution before positioning for any meaningful downside.

From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair maintains a mild bullish bias above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August rally. Moreover, momentum indicators are constructive, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just above the neutral 50 level and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sitting above the signal line in positive territory.

This hints that the upside pressure is gradually building as the 38.2% Fibo. at 1.3525 turns into nearby support. This is followed by the 200-period SMA around 1.3490 and the 50.0% retracement near 1.3476, with deeper cushions at the 61.8% and 78.6% levels at 1.3428 and 1.3359, respectively. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. at 1.3584, ahead of a more significant hurdle at the prior swing high region around 1.3681.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

GBP/USD 4-hour chart

Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

The Dollar-Yen rate has already reached MUFG's end-Q4 forecast as intervention risk and expectations of further BoJ tightening support the Yen. The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate recovered to around 156.3 on Friday after sliding to 155.31, its lowest level for a month.

The pair lost more than 2% over the previous 48 hours and has already traded below MUFG's 156 end-Q4 forecast.

MUFG's September target of 158 is also now above the market, suggesting that the Yen rally has developed more quickly than the bank expected.

Image: USD/JPY 48hr chart The chart shows USD/JPY falling from almost 160 to below 155.50 before finding some support around 156.

MUFG Sees USD/JPY Falling Towards 152 MUFG forecasts USD/JPY at 158 for the end of September, followed by 156 in Q4 2026, 154 in Q1 2027 and 152 by Q2 2027.

Its projected trading range falls from 155-165 in September to 149-159 by the second quarter of next year.

These are period-end forecasts rather than a prediction of an uninterrupted decline, with Japanese fiscal concerns and the trade deficit still capable of limiting Yen gains.

MUFG said: “Japan's trade deficit remains a source of yen weakness, but the impact of intervention, more stable oil prices, and the prospect of further BOJ rate hikes make an accelerating yen-depreciation spiral like that seen in 2022 less likely.”

Intervention Risk Changes the Japanese Yen Outlook Joint Japanese and US action has made traders more cautious about rebuilding short-Yen positions.

“Japan's FX intervention since the end of July has reached JPY15.4tn, while Japan and the US have signaled that they remain prepared to intervene jointly again.”

Current market pricing assigns approximately a 75% probability to a September BoJ rate increase.

MUFG also believes the BoJ could respond if renewed Federal Reserve tightening placed the Yen under fresh pressure.

“Even if the Fed resumes rate hikes, the meeting calendar would put the BOJ in a position to follow with a hike of its own.”

That view supports the broader pattern of longer-term Yen recovery forecasts, although the speed of the current move raises the risk of a short-term correction.

Near-Term USD/JPY Forecast: US Data Will Decide Whether 152 Comes Into View A softer US rate outlook remains an important part of MUFG's case.

“The Fed is therefore likely to wait for the August employment and CPI reports before deciding whether to raise rates in September. We think it would be premature at this stage to regard a hike as a foregone conclusion.”

Weak US employment data would reinforce the decline towards 154 and eventually 152.

A strong report could instead lift Treasury yields and trigger a USD/JPY rebound, particularly after such a rapid Yen advance.

Attention now turns to the US employment report, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting on 15-16 September and the BoJ decision on 17-18 September.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is trimming some gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but still on track to its strongest weekly performance since July’s US-Japan coordinated intervention. The USD/JPY pair bounced from lows at the 155.30 area, returning to levels above 156.00, but upside traction remains weak, and previous support at the 156.70 area is likely to pose significant resistance.

Markets are still wondering about reasons for a 500-pip USD/JPY plunge between Wednesday and Thursday. Analysts at MUFG note that “it is not entirely clear whether the moves in USD/JPY were driven by FX intervention,” yet point out that “from what we do know, Bank of Japan current account data for Wednesday do not suggest the moves were driven by intervention.”

More broadly on the policy outlook, MUFG highlights that “BoJ Board Member Takata – one of BoJ’s most hawkish members – gave a speech earlier this week leaving the door open for an outsized interest rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes,” underscoring the risk that the central bank could contemplate a faster pace of tightening if conditions warrant.

Technical Analysis: US Dollar's recovery seems like a dead cat bounce

USD/JPY trades at 156.37, about 100 pips above Thursday's trough, with momentum indicators in the daily chart still well into bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 34, just above oversold levels, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, altogether suggesting that downside pressure remains in place.

Bulls would need to reclaim horizontal resistance at a previous support area around 156.70 (August 7 low). If that level gives way, the focus will shift to the area between the August 18 and 19 lows, around 158.05 and the 200-day SMA, at 158.50.

On the downside, the support area around 155.00 has held downside attempts several times since May. When key supports like this break, they tend to boost confidence for bears. In this case, pressure would increase towards the February 23 low, near 154.00, and the year-to-date lows around 152.20.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.01%-0.15%0.33%0.01%-0.04%-0.14%0.12%EUR0.01%-0.14%0.33%0.04%-0.04%-0.10%0.13%GBP0.15%0.14%0.47%0.19%0.11%0.04%0.26%JPY-0.33%-0.33%-0.47%-0.28%-0.36%-0.43%-0.21%CAD-0.01%-0.04%-0.19%0.28%-0.07%-0.16%0.08%AUD0.04%0.04%-0.11%0.36%0.07%-0.07%0.14%NZD0.14%0.10%-0.04%0.43%0.16%0.07%0.23%CHF-0.12%-0.13%-0.26%0.21%-0.08%-0.14%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats to near $66.30 in the European trading session on Friday after posting a fresh five-day high near $68.00. The white metal comes under pressure ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

According to TD Securities, the US labour market is set for a partial recovery in August, with the bank forecasting that "August NFP [will] rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k." The firm also expects limited movement in joblessness, noting that "the UE rate likely went sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks."

Investors will closely track the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In TD’s view, a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed's attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes, suggesting that even a stronger print would not materially alter the current policy stance.

Meanwhile, traders have diminished Fed interest rate expectations after comments from Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday, in which he said that recent data shows signs of disinflation.

Analysts at Commerzbank also said that lingering uncertainty over the US rate outlook was “underscored yesterday by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller,” who, in their words, signalled that “a rate hike is by no means necessary.” They add that Waller “also confirmed what we have been arguing: next week’s inflation data are likely to be the key input for the Fed’s upcoming policy decision,” a shift in emphasis that, in their view, “further [reduces] the significance of today’s employment report.”

Silver Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.73, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $65.71. The metal is advancing within an uptrend structure, with price comfortably supported by this short-term EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 suggests moderate bullish momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near $65.71, where a break would expose the white metal to a deeper correction. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 is the key hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Pound-Australian Dollar could remain under pressure if risk appetite stays firm, although a more hawkish Bailey could help Sterling recover. The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate hit a three-month low on Thursday as a risk-on mood swept markets.

At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.8797, having bounced off a low point of AU$1.8797.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.877752 (-0.22%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.352779 (+0.33%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Australian Dollar (AUD) softened slightly during Thursday’s Asian trading session following downbeat domestic trade data.

Australia’s latest balance of trade showed a narrowing surplus in July. Both exports and imports contracted, with the former declining at a sharper pace.

However, the risk-sensitive ‘Aussie’ was cushioned by an upbeat market mood, limiting losses.

When the European session started, AUD was able to attract fresh support and firm against some of its weaker peers.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) was subdued on Thursday as markets digested the UK’s final services PMI.

Although growth in the UK’s vital services sector hit a four-month high in August, the final reading was revised slightly lower than the preliminary estimate. The PMI rose from 52.1 to 52.5, rather than 52.8. This weaker-than-expected result stifled Sterling’s upside potential.

Meanwhile, GBP investors seemed somewhat perturbed by the recent surge in UK government borrowing costs, after bond yields struck a 19-year high on Wednesday. This also limited the Pound’s appeal.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Central Bank Expectations to Drive Movement? Looking forward, on Friday GBP investors will likely focus on a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey. If Bailey maintains his cautious tone about the need for interest rate hikes, Sterling could stumble.

However, if the BoE chief starts to sound more concerned about the upside risks to inflation then the Pound could catch bids.

Meanwhile, Australian economic data is thin on the ground, potentially leaving the ‘Aussie’ to trade on global risk dynamics.

US economic data could play a big part in the market mood. If a weak non-farm payrolls report dampens Federal Reserve interest rate hike bets, an upbeat mood could lift AUD.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Key Highlights

USD/JPY started a major decline from the 160.40 zone. It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 159.70 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil prices could gain bullish momentum if it surpasses $92.65. EUR/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.1580 support. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar struggled to stay above 160.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY traded below 159.50 and 158.80 to enter a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 159.70. The bearish momentum gained strength after there was a close below 158.00, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The pair even tested the 155.25 support zone. A low was formed at 155.29, and it is now consolidating losses. On the upside, it could face resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.39 swing high to the 155.29 low at 156.50.

The next major resistance might be 157.25. A close above 157.25 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 157.85 and the 50% Fib retracement level.

If there is another decline, the pair might find bids near 155.65. The first major support could be near 155.25. A downside break and close below 155.25 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 154.40.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil prices, the price gained bullish pace, and the bulls could now aim for a move toward the $95.00 level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

US nonfarm payrolls for August 2026 – Forecast 56K, versus -23K previous. US Unemployment Rate for August 2026 – Forecast 4.1%, versus 4.1% previous.

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Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 527.70 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, broadly stable compared with the AED 528.15 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold was broadly steady at AED 6,154.97 per tola from AED 6,160.24 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

527.70

10 Grams

5,276.98

Tola

6,154.97

Troy Ounce

16,413.26

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 539.44 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 540.01 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,291.96 per tola from SAR 6,298.62 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

539.44

10 Grams

5,394.04

Tola

6,291.96

Troy Ounce

16,779.33

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 581.11 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 581.73 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,777.96 per tola from MYR 6,785.24 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

581.11

10 Grams

5,811.11

Tola

6,777.96

Troy Ounce

18,074.58

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 13,574.68 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,588.81 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 158,332.40 per tola from INR 158,497.20 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

13,574.68

10 Grams

135,746.20

Tola

158,332.40

Troy Ounce

422,220.10

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on its strong gains registered over the past two days and consolidates below the $4,500 mark during the Asian session on Friday. The commodity, however, remains close to the weekly high, which it touched the previous day, as traders keenly await the release of the closely watched US monthly employment details. The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report will be looked upon for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path amid receding bets for a rate hike in September. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

Gold traders eye US jobs data as Fed tone turns more hawkishAccording to TD Securities, "Non-farm payrolls this Friday will be the next piece of data with keen interest for precious metals" as markets grapple with "the renewed hawkish tone from the Fed and the latest escalation in the energy market." However, the bank strikes a more constructive note beyond the immediate data risk, adding that "looking forward, we do not anticipate material downside as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain."

Heading into the key data release, Governor Christopher Waller stated on Thursday that he is leaning toward keeping interest rates steady at the September FOMC meeting, provided there are no surprises from upcoming inflation data. Investors responded by pushing US bond yields and the USD sharply lower, which, in turn, assisted the Gold price to build on its recovery from a four-week low touched on Wednesday. However, inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices leave the door open for a rate hike later this month. This helps the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, bounce off a one-and-a-half-week low and cap the upside for the commodity.

In fact, crude oil prices sit near their highest levels since July 24 amid renewed US-Iran hostilities and clashes over the Strait of Hormuz. In further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran targeted US military bases in Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on Thursday. Meanwhile, US Vice President JD Vance said that US President Donald Trump has a series of options available at his disposal to deal with Tehran, including economic, military, diplomatic, and covert measures. Adding to this, South Korea is reportedly preparing to deploy military assets to support freedom of navigation in the strategic Strait of Hormuz and aims to dispatch them before the end of the year.

This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, which supports crude oil prices and might continue to underpin the safe-haven USD. However, the near-term direction hinges on the highly anticipated US jobs report. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair, for now, seems to have stalled its recent corrective decline from the vicinity of the $4,700 mark, or the highest level since May 14, and remains on track to register modest weekly gains. That said, sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,500 round figure is needed to back the case for any meaningful appreciating move.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical AnalysisThe precious metal maintains a constructive near-term tone above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent leg down. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 56 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line lodged above zero with a positive histogram suggest firm but not overextended bullish momentum while the Gold presses into the nearby 50% retracement barrier ahead of $4,500.

Further up, the 61.8% level near $4,540, followed by the 78.6% retracement at $4,609 and the swing high cluster around $4,698 could be key hurdles. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,442, ahead of the 23.6% level near $4,381, with the 200-period SMA at $4,322 and the structural floor around $4,283.63 reinforcing a broader bullish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Possible intervention again by the BOJ has led the USDJPY to plunge leading to a dip in the Dollar Index as well ahead of the NFP data release today. Euro and EURINR head towards 1.17 and 110-110.50 respectively while EURJPY has also plunged below 182 and looks bearish for a test of 180. Aussie could rise towards 0.73 while the Pound could test 1.3450 before rebound from there. USDCNY is headed towards 6.71/70. The Indian Rupee has scope to strengthen to 94 before seeing a reversal.

The US Treasury Yields remain higher and stable. Outlook remains bullish. There is room to rise more. Any dip from here can be short-lived as supports are there to limit the downside. The US unemployment data release today will need a close watch. The German Yields are hovering around their key resistance. A strong follow-through rise is needed to go further higher. Else the yields can fall back. The 10Yr GoI has come down but sustains above its support. Short-term picture remains positive. But, an intermediate dip looks likely before the yield goes higher.

Dow has turned stronger after breaking above 53000 and can rise towards 54500-55000 on a break above 54000. DAX has bounced back and can rise towards 26500. Nifty remains weak below 24000, with support near 23800 needing to hold to avoid a decline towards 23600. Nikkei remains weak and can decline towards 62000. Shanghai is likely to remain range-bound between 3850-4000 while below 4000.

Brent and WTI continue to move higher and can rise towards $100 and $95 respectively. Gold has bounced sharply after stronger US ADP jobs data, but needs to sustain above $4600 for a rise towards $4700-$4800. Silver has also recovered and needs a sustained break above $70 for a move towards $75-$80. Copper remains range-bound between $6.50-$6.80, while Natural Gas remains weak and needs to break above $3.00 for a rise towards $3.25-$3.50.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

TL;DR: The Dollar’s selloff this week reflects two separate pressures — a Yen repricing tied to faster BoJ tightening and Fed Governor Waller’s lean toward a September hold — and Gold has rebounded sharply as an indirect beneficiary, with Friday’s NFP now the first test of both fronts at once.

Dollar Faces Two Separate Sources of Pressure Dollar’s selloff this week is being driven by two largely separate forces that have landed in quick succession. First came sharp Yen repricing as markets moved toward a faster BoJ tightening cycle and USD/JPY reversed from 160.38 toward 155. Then on Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller added pressure from US side by leaning toward a September hold if recent disinflation continues. Gold has benefited indirectly from both developments, rebounding strongly after defending a major technical support zone around 4,320.

The distinction matters because this is not a single broad “Dollar bearish” narrative. Yen move reflects changing expectations around Japanese rates and capital allocation, while Waller’s comments affected US rate path directly. Together they have weakened two separate pillars supporting Dollar just as markets head into Friday’s NFP.

Waller Takes Heat Out of September Fed Hike Waller provided fresher catalyst. Speaking Thursday at Reuters NEXT Newsmaker Interview, he said Fed was finally seeing “some signs of disinflation” and that, if improvement continues in data due before September 15–16 FOMC meeting, “I would be inclined to support holding the target for the federal funds rate at its current setting.”

His reasoning was not based on a deteriorating economy. Waller described labor market as being in “satisfactory shape,” with unemployment at 4.1%, historically low layoffs and payroll growth averaging around 60K per month through July. Instead, he focused on improving inflation dynamics. Three-month core inflation has fallen from 4.76% in February to 3.05% through July, which he described as “a considerable improvement.”

That distinction makes Thursday’s repricing important. Market-implied probability of a September hike dropped from roughly 63% on Wednesday to almost an even split by Friday morning. Waller’s remarks coincided with that sharp reduction in hike pricing and extended Dollar weakness already underway.

But his hold preference remains conditional. “If inflation comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike,” Waller said, adding that policy is only slightly restrictive and that it “may not take much acceleration in inflation” to push him back toward tighter policy.

Yen Remains the Larger Weekly Dollar Driver Waller explains why Dollar pressure intensified late in week. Yen explains why decline was already well underway.

USD/JPY has fallen from 160.38 to as low as around 155.28, reflecting a substantial repricing of Japan’s monetary outlook. BoJ board member Hajime Takata’s call for a 2026 monetary-policy “regime change”, combined with his argument that rate hikes should become more nimble and data-dependent, reinforced expectations that BoJ may abandon its previous slow tightening cadence.

OIS pricing now implies around 84% probability of a September hike and roughly 96.5bp of cumulative tightening over coming 12 months, close to four quarter-point moves.

GPIF speculation added another Yen-positive dimension this week. An unusual August meeting reopened discussion over strategic asset allocation just months after an earlier review concluded changes were unnecessary, fuelling speculation that Japan’s giant pension fund could eventually raise its domestic allocation as JGB yields climb to multi-decade highs.

This Japan story has already been covered in more depth in USD/JPY Slides Toward 155 as GPIF Speculation Fuels Yen Rally and USD/JPY Tumbles Under the Shadow of Intervention, Faces Asymmetric NFP Test. For current Dollar setup, key point is simpler: Waller extended this week’s decline, but Yen created it.

DXY Rejection Keeps Broader Decline Intact Dollar Index technicals reflect those combined pressures.

Rebound from 98.55 to 99.86 appears to have completed as a corrective move after rejection near a strong resistance cluster. 99.79 marks 38.2% retracement of decline from 101.80 to 98.55, while 55-day EMA sits around 99.80.

Sharp rejection from that area keeps fall from 101.80 intact. Further downside is favored while 55 4H EMA near 99.33 caps recovery.

A firm break of 98.55 would resume decline towards 97.93, the 61.8% retracement of 95.55 to 101.80. Conversely, sustained recovery above 4H EMA would argue that sideways consolidation from 98.55 is extending rather than immediate bearish continuation.

That makes Friday NFP an unusually clean technical trigger.

Gold Rebounds Without Needing a Gold-Specific Catalyst Gold has been indirect beneficiary.

There has been no clear new Gold-specific fundamental catalyst behind this week’s rebound. Rather, simultaneous weakening in Dollar from Yen repricing and softer Fed expectations has relieved one of major pressures on metal.

Technically, rebound has been significant. Gold’s decline from 4,697.07 extended to 4,282.23, but price defended a key structural area around 4,319.75–4,324.23. That zone combines 50% retracement of advance from 3,942.43 to 4,697.07 at 4,319.75 with prior structural support at 4,324.23.

Gold has since rebounded decisively through 55 4H EMA near 4,462.10, strengthening case that fall from 4,697.07 completed as a correction rather than beginning of a larger reversal.

As long as 4,418.20 minor support holds, further rally toward 4,697.07 is favored. A break there would reopen prospect of resuming broader rise from 3,942.43. Whether that happens could depend partly on DXY: a decisive break below 98.55 would strengthen Gold’s upside case considerably.

Below 4,418.20, attention would return to 4,319.75–4,324.23 support.

NFP Is First Common Test of Both Dollar Pressure Fronts Friday’s August employment report is first major event capable of testing both sources of Dollar weakness simultaneously. Consensus centers on 58K payroll growth, unemployment at 4.1%, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% m/m.

July provided a weak starting point. Payrolls fell -23K, while unemployment’s decline to 4.1% came alongside a drop in labor-force participation to 61.4%, rather than an unequivocal strengthening in employment conditions.

A weak NFP would reinforce Fed side of Dollar decline by reducing pressure for a September hike and likely pulling Treasury yields lower. That would put DXY 98.55 under renewed pressure and provide Gold with another tailwind. It could also deepen USD/JPY decline as Fed-BoJ policy convergence becomes more pronounced.

A strong report would work in opposite direction, rebuilding September hike expectations, supporting yields and challenging Gold’s recovery. But it would not erase Japan story. BoJ tightening expectations and Yen-positive capital-flow speculation would remain intact, making Dollar response potentially less straightforward than before this week’s USD/JPY reversal.

There is also a final complication from Waller himself. Despite NFP’s billing as week’s key event, he explicitly said he expects employment data to deliver broadly “more of the same” and indicated his September vote will be more heavily influenced by inflation data still to come.

So payrolls can strongly move Dollar, Yen and Gold today without necessarily settling Fed decision. NFP is first test of both fronts squeezing Dollar—but August inflation may still determine whether that squeeze becomes durable.

Key Takeaways The Dollar’s decline reflects two separate pressures: a Yen repricing tied to faster BoJ tightening (USD/JPY from 160.38 to 155) and Waller’s lean toward a September hold. Waller’s comments coincided with September hike odds dropping from roughly 63% to near an even split, though his hold preference stays conditional on continued disinflation. Gold has no new gold-specific catalyst behind its rebound — it defended the 4,319.75-4,324.23 support zone and is benefiting indirectly from broad Dollar weakness. DXY’s rejection near 99.79-99.80 resistance keeps the broader decline from 101.80 intact, with a break of 98.55 opening 97.93 next. Friday’s NFP (consensus 58K) is the first test of both Dollar pressure fronts at once, though Waller himself signaled his September vote hinges more on upcoming inflation data.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The Euro (EUR) holds onto previous day’s gains at around 1.1630 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Friday. The major currency pair gained significantly on Thursday as the US Dollar faced sharp selling pressure, following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback's value against six major currencies, trades close to Thursday’s low near 99.00.

Fed’s Waller didn’t rule out the possibility of hiking interest rates this month if inflation figures come in hot, but his remarks that he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation in recent data”, indicated that he could incline towards maintaining the status quo.

Meanwhile, investors await key United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1630. The pair holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1564, keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish as recent gains remain supported by this underlying trend indicator.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 suggests positive but not overstretched momentum, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand while avoiding overbought conditions.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA near 1.1564, where a break would expose a deeper pullback toward prior daily lows. Looking up, the major currency pair could extend its upside towards the August high at 1.1720.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

CHFJPY: ⬆️ Buy

– CHFJPY reversed from key support level 192.55

– Likely to rise to resistance level 194.00

CHFJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the key support level 192.55 (which has been reversing the price from December) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from the support level 192.55 stopped the C-wave of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) from the end of August.

Given the strength of the support level 192.55 and the bullish divergence on the daily Stochastic, CHFJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 194.00.

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GBP/USD trades near 1.35, while UBS valuation models place purchasing-power parity at 1.48 and TEEER fair value at 1.50. The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has recovered to around 1.3512 after falling as low as 1.3475 during the past 48 hours.

Pound Sterling remains about 0.3% below its opening level on the chart, but UBS's latest valuation calculations suggest the Pound is substantially undervalued against the US Dollar.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.351039 (+0.20%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.16235 (+0.33%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 155.4649 (-2.18%)

The analysis puts GBP/USD purchasing-power parity at 1.48 and its trend-extrapolated equilibrium exchange rate, or TEEER, at 1.50.

Against a market rate near 1.3512, those figures imply valuation gaps of approximately 9.5% and 11%.

Image: GBP/USD 48hr chart The chart shows GBP/USD sliding from above 1.3550 to 1.3475 before recovering towards 1.3510.

What UBS's 1.48 PPP Estimate Means Purchasing-power parity compares changes in prices between two economies with movements in their exchange rate.

UBS said: “In our calculations we compare how producer prices develop in the currency areas with the way bilateral exchange rates move to determine purchasing power parity (PPP).”

The bank generally uses producer-price data stretching back to 1982.

“Whenever possible, we take producer prices for domestic goods to prevent the exchange rate from directly affecting the inflation rate as much as possible.”

UBS added: “We also take prices for the final stage of production, to avoid commodity price fluctuations from having a major impact on the exchange rate.”

Its 1.48 calculation therefore represents an estimated equilibrium level based on relative prices, rather than a tactical view on the next move in the Pound to Dollar exchange rate.

UBS describes the second measure as follows: “TEEER refers to the 'trend-extrapolated equilibrium exchange rate', which is a three-year projection of PPP”.

That explains why its TEEER estimate is slightly higher at 1.50.

The three-year horizon applies to the projected equilibrium calculation, not to a promise that the market exchange rate will converge to 1.50 over that period.

Fair value is not a deadline.

Currency pairs can trade above or below valuation models for years as interest-rate differences, capital flows, fiscal risks and investor positioning dominate relative-price calculations.

GBP/USD Forecast: Valuation Case Is More Bullish Than UBS Target The difference is easier to see when the figures are compared with UBS's separate directional forecast.

As we covered in our earlier GBP/USD analysis, UBS has also projected a move towards 1.40.

That is a conventional currency forecast and remains well below the 1.48-1.50 valuation area.

Near-term Pound Sterling moves will continue to depend on UK gilt yields, fiscal concerns and Bank of England expectations.

US employment and inflation figures, Federal Reserve rate pricing and broader Dollar demand will also determine whether GBP/USD can move away from the 1.35 region.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,470 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal extended its recovery as Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets ease. All eyes will be on the US August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is due later on Friday. 

Earlier this week, hawkish remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole symposium drove expectations of a US September rate hike higher and weighed on the yellow metal. However, traders subsequently pared back their bets on further monetary tightening after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said he expects “reasonable” inflation readings next month.

Traders of Fed funds futures see a 50.2% chance of a quarter-point hike in September, down from 63.2% before Waller’s speech, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool.

“With the Fed currently offering no forward guidance, gold remains highly sensitive to shifts in market expectations for the September meeting,” said Saxo Bank Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen. 

Traders will closely monitor the US jobs data for August later on Friday, which could offer fresh cues on the US interest rate path. The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) is expected to show a 56,000 job addition in August, while Unemployment Rate is projected to hold steady at 4.1% during the same period. If the report shows stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could lift the US Dollar (USD) and drag the USD-denominated commodity price lower. 

Waller keeps September options open as data-dependent stance tempers Dollar bullsFed Governor Waller delivered a moderately hawkish but data-contingent message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 6.1 slightly softer relative to the historical average of 6.3. The key remark that Waller is inclined to support holding rates steady in September if August inflation shows continued progress, but would consider a hike if the data comes in hot, underscores a live-meeting, reaction-function focus that limits immediate repricing in the Dollar while preserving upside risk. Emphasis on emerging disinflation, solid GDP and a satisfactory labor market, alongside acknowledgment of upside inflation risks, keeps the tone cautiously hawkish rather than aggressively so.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 2.06 points to 125.38, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness despite remaining firmly above the neutral 100 mark. This combination of a lower index reading and a still-elevated level indicates that, while Waller’s data-dependent stance has cooled some expectations compared to the established baseline, the overall policy tone remains in hawkish territory according to both the FXS Fed Sentiment Index and the FXS Speechtracker.

HSBC sees Fed on hold as core inflation remains containedAnalysts at HSBC argue that a further US rate increase is unlikely in the near term, provided that “high energy prices aren’t translating into higher core inflation.” They note that this “remains our base scenario,” stressing that the Fed will be reluctant to tighten policy further because “the US Federal Reserve won’t want low-income households to bear the pressure of higher rates.”

Technical Analysis: Gold price keeps a bullish vibe above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds a constructive near-term bias as it remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands middle line, suggesting underlying demand after the latest pullback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55.34 sits in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum has cooled from overbought readings but still favors mild upside rather than a deeper correction.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the Bollinger Bands upper band near $4,675, where any advance would likely meet profit-taking and volatility expansion. On the downside, initial support is seen at the Bollinger middle band at $4,460, followed by the 100-day SMA at $4,360, while a deeper decline could test the lower Bollinger band around $4,245.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The GBP/JPY tanks amid speculation of intervention by Japanese authorities in the FX markets, driven by a rate check by Tokyo. The cross-pair drops more than 300 pips, trades at 210.92, down by more than 1.40%.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookOn Thursday, GBP/JPY extended its losses, clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 213.04 on its way towards the 210.00 area, leaving behind the 212.00 and 211.00 psychological levels.

Momentum shifted bearishly, as seen in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which turned oversold, indicating that the pair may be susceptible to a mean-reversion move. This is possible if the RSI gets above the 30 level.

For a bullish recovery, the GBP/JPY must clear the 212.00 area ahead of challenging the 200-day SMA at 213.06. If cleared, the next area of interest in play will be the 100-day SMA at 215.04.

Conversely, the path of least resistance is for GBP/JPY to dive below 210.00, with a move to the March 31 swing low of 209.64 on the cards. On further weakness, the next area of support would be the 209.00 milestone.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.36%0.07%-2.45%-0.85%-0.58%0.70%-0.05%EUR0.36%0.44%-2.09%-0.49%-0.22%1.02%0.33%GBP-0.07%-0.44%-2.62%-0.93%-0.67%0.57%-0.20%JPY2.45%2.09%2.62%1.56%1.90%3.10%2.34%CAD0.85%0.49%0.93%-1.56%0.26%1.53%0.73%AUD0.58%0.22%0.67%-1.90%-0.26%1.25%0.47%NZD-0.70%-1.02%-0.57%-3.10%-1.53%-1.25%-0.77%CHF0.05%-0.33%0.20%-2.34%-0.73%-0.47%0.77% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The Fed's no-exit ramp: Debt, Dollar debasement, and the case for Gold [Video]

Silver price advances by some 2.45% on Thursday, boosted by dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, which pushed the US Dollar and US Treasury yields lower. The XAG/USD trades at $66.90, after reaching a high of $67.48.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe white metal is neutral to downward biased. After hitting an all-time high of $121.66, the Silver price respects the market structure of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that sellers are in control.

Momentum shifted in favour of bulls in the short-term as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which dipped to its 50-neutral level before bouncing higher. Therefore, the path of least resistance is upwards.

To resume the uptrend, Silver must clear the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $67.66. A breach of the latter will expose the August 28 swing high of $71.12, followed by the 200-day SMA at $72.78. If those two levels are taken out, buyers could challenge the May 25 high at $78.83, ahead of $80.00.

On the other hand, if XAG/USD struggles to break above the 100-day SMA, sellers could drive prices towards the September 2 swing low of $63.32. A decisive break will expose the 50-day SMA at 61.85, before the precious metal registers a leg lower towards $60.00.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The USD/CHF tumbles nearly 0.80% on Thursday as the Greenback weakens on rumours of a potential intervention in the FX markets to boost the Japanese Yen. Consequently, the pair fell from around daily highs of 0.8131, extending its losses to the current exchange rate near 0.8065.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/CHF tumbled below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.8090, but so far is retaining its upward bias, as the pair is above a previously broken resistance trendline, turned support. Also, the 100- and 200-day SMAs remain below the current exchange rate, meaning that in the medium and long term, the overall trend remains up.

Nevertheless, momentum shifted in the near-term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish, an indication that sellers are in charge. Hence, in the short term, further downside is seen, unless buyers reclaim key technical resistance areas.

On the downside, the first support for USD/CHF is the July 30 low of 0.8039. Below lies 0.8000, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7992 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7934.

On the other hand, if USD/CHF reclaims 0.8100, the next resistance is the September 2 high at 0.8156, before traders test 0.8200.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.39%-0.39%-1.99%-0.40%-0.51%-0.53%-0.75%EUR0.39%-0.00%-1.63%-0.06%-0.11%-0.20%-0.37%GBP0.39%0.00%-1.62%-0.05%-0.11%-0.18%-0.37%JPY1.99%1.63%1.62%1.62%1.52%1.45%1.27%CAD0.40%0.06%0.05%-1.62%-0.11%-0.17%-0.35%AUD0.51%0.11%0.11%-1.52%0.11%-0.06%-0.26%NZD0.53%0.20%0.18%-1.45%0.17%0.06%-0.15%CHF0.75%0.37%0.37%-1.27%0.35%0.26%0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is sharply higher in mid-session trading Thursday after confirming Wednesday’s closing price reversal bottom at $63.31. The bottom was posted just ahead of an intermediate 50% level at $62.98, the 50-day moving average at $61.84 and 50% of the all-time high at $60.835.

The short-term range is $71.18 to $63.31. Its retracement zone is $67.25 to $68.17. Thursday’s rally was strong enough to reach $67.47, which was just inside the zone.

Trader reaction to the zone is likely to determine the near-term direction of XAGUSD. A sustained move over the 61.8% level at $68.17 will be a sign of strength. This could trigger an acceleration to the upside, with the next major objectives a long-term 50% level at $72.08 and the 200-day moving average at $72.67.

The inability to overcome the 50% level at $67.25 will signal the presence of weak buying or stronger selling. If this move creates enough downside momentum, we could see a sharp correction into $63.31, $62.98 and the 50-day moving average at $61.84.

The main trend is up. The main bottom at $62.56 held. Now it is up to buyers to take out the swing top at $71.18 to reaffirm the uptrend and create enough upside momentum to overtake the 200-day moving average at $72.67.

Three Fed Voices and Two of Them Pushed Back Warsh said at Jackson Hole last week that policymakers could have more work to do if inflation did not move toward target. Yields rose to multiyear highs on that message. The dollar reached a nearly three-week high. Gold and silver spent four sessions under pressure.

The Pound Sterling rises against the US Dollar on Thursday, as Fed Governor Christopher Waller favors holding the rate unchanged, shifting to a more neutral stance regarding monetary policy, while data showed that the US labour market is solid and that business activity improved. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3535, up 0.37%. Read More...

British Pound gains capped as fiscal, geopolitical risks persistGBP/USD gains after two days of losses, trading around 1.3500 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency pair experiences an upward push as a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD). This sudden Yen surge was largely driven by market speculation that Japanese authorities conducted a rate check, signaling potential direct intervention in foreign exchange markets. Read More...

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds a mildly bullish bias near 1.3500 despite subdued RSI momentumThe GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3490 during the early European trading hours on Thursday, bolstered by a weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders await the Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech and US August jobs data later on Friday for fresh impetus. Read More...

Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team reports the British Pound (GBP) is flat versus the US Dollar (USD) but softer on crosses, with UK PMI data offering little new insight. Markets price minimal tightening for the September Bank of England (BoE) meeting and modest moves for November. GBP/USD technicals are neutral to bearish, with support around 1.3500–1.3450, though the broader trend from June remains bullish.

Muted BoE expectations cap Pound"GBP/USD (1.3493) The pound is trading flat to the USD while showing minor relative losses against most of the G10 currencies. The UK’s final services and composite PMI’s delivered modest expansionary prints in the low 50s, offering little in terms of the fundamental narrative. "

"BoE Chief Economist Pill is scheduled to speak at 11am ET, offering the potential for headline risk ahead of Gov. Bailey’s speech tomorrow. BoE rate expectations remain muted for the September 17th meeting, with only 4bpts of tightening priced."

"The November 5th meeting is priced for 18bpts and is also an Inflation Report/forecast meeting and thus should provide for a more fulsome analysis as it will also follow the government’s Autumn Statement/budget scheduled for October 28th. UK-US yield spreads remain supportive following this week’s surge."

"Neutral/bearish—the GBP’s technicals remain relatively lackluster with an RSI that is showing signs of stabilization, but at bearish sub-50 levels in the mid-40s. Short-term price action suggests important support at/just below 1.3500, with additional support expected closer to 1.3450. The medium-term trend from June remains bullish however."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)