Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats by about 0.80% on Friday, after registering losses of over 2% following the release of an upbeat US jobs report. This boosted the Greenback amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise rates if inflation data next week comes hotter than expected. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,437.
XAU/USD retreats as upbeat jobs data supports Dollar and September tightening risksNonfarm Payrolls in August crushed estimates of 56K, coming in at 162K, while July’s print was upward revised from -23K to 21K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1%. The data reassured Fed officials that if needed, they can raise rates without harming the labor market.
Last week, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said the jobs market was “consistent with full employment” in a speech in Jackson Hole, in which he leaned hawkish, placing inflation as the foremost mission.
On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed isn't rushing to raise rates if inflation cools, but a weak data release next week favors a rate increase at the FOMC's meeting.
Money markets have priced in a 61% chance for a rate increase by the Fed at the September meeting, up from 54% a day ago, as shown by Prime Terminal.
US Treasury yields, namely the 10-year T-note, rose to a high of 4.81% before erasing post-NFP gains and are down to 4.768%. The Greenback also gave back some of its gains, but it remains in positive territory, as indicated by the US Dollar Index (DXY).
The DXY, which measures the performance of the US Dollar against six currencies, is up 0.13% at 99.13.
Following the US NFP release, traders await next week’s producer and consumer inflation reports. If both show persistent disinflation, a rate hike might not be necessary.
Next week, the US economic docket highlight will be the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), jobless claims data, the US Monthly Budget Statement and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold consolidates within 100- and 200-day SMAsPrice action shows Gold is poised to trade sideways, capped on the downside by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,354 and on the upside by the 200-day SMA at $4,534.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, but in the short term it is trending downward toward the 50-neutral level, an indication that sellers are gaining momentum.
For a bearish continuation, XAU/USD must drop below the $4,400 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA. Below this area, the next target will be the day's low at $4,282.
For a bullish continuation, Gold must rise above $4,450. If buyers gain enough momentum, they could challenge $4,500 before targeting August’s monthly peak of $4,697.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
GBP/USD recovers part of its initial drop on Friday after stronger-than-expected United States (US) employment data briefly lifts the US Dollar (USD). The pair fell to an intraday low of 1.3482 immediately after the release before rebounding. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades around 1.3512. Read More...
British Pound pulls back from session highs as BoE Bailey tames rate hike hopesThe British Pound (GBP) has retreated from session highs just below 1.3550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the London trading session, returning to levels near 1.3520 and turning negative on the daily chart. Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey called for flexibility on monetary policy, cooling hopes for an interest rate hike at September's monetary policy meeting. Read More...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bulls turn cautious as 1.3550 cap gains ahead of US NFPThe GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through and remains capped near mid-1.3500s through the early European session on Friday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the recovery from a nearly three-week low, touched on Wednesday, as traders keenly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP). Read More...
The EUR/USD pair posted a modest comeback after falling in the last week of August, finishing the week just above the 1.1600 level. The US Dollar (USD) lost momentum and corrected lower on Monday, but overall it retained its recently regained strength amid persistent Middle East tensions and speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have to raise the benchmark interest rate in September. The USD resumed its advance on Friday, as upbeat employment data brought back demand.
United States employment and inflationIn between, the Greenback suffered a minor setback: Fed Governor Christopher Waller cooled the odds for a September rate hike on Thursday by saying that officials can “wait one meeting,” as long as there are no surprises from upcoming inflation data. He also noted that a 25-basis-point (bps) hike won’t bring inflation back to 2%.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the August Consumer Price Index CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI) for the same month in the upcoming days. Indeed, the CPI may not be the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, but it's a reliable indicator of inflationary pressures and may define whether the Fed will hike or hold when it meets later this month.
The United States (US) published the August Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, with upbeat figures backing the USD. The country added 162K new jobs in the month, much better than the anticipated 56K. The Unemployment rate held steady at 4.1% as expected. Furthermore, annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in Average Hourly Earnings, declined to 3.1% from 3.2%.
Other than that, the country published the August ISM Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs). The manufacturing index eased to 54.6 from 55.6 in July, while the Services PMI improved to 55.4 from 54.1 in the previous month. Within the manufacturing sector, inflation held steady as the Prices Paid Index printed at 71.1, matching the previous monthly reading. On services output, the Prices Paid Index edged higher to 72.6 from 70.3. A reading above 50 means that more businesses are paying higher prices than in the previous month, meaning inflationary pressures are being felt up and down across all businesses.
So, while Fed Governor Waller hinting at an on-hold September decision temporarily took its toll on the USD, the fact is that inflationary pressures are high enough for speculative interest to price in upcoming hikes. Rising energy prices amid the Middle East war are no doubt the main factor driving market concerns, with Crude Oil Prices regaining positive momentum after the US and Iran resumed hostilities in late August.
European Central Bank and Eurozone inflationInflation is not a problem exclusive to the US. Germany reported that the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.9% YoY in August, according to preliminary estimates, higher than the previous 2.8% although better than the expected 3.1%. Furthermore, Retail Sales in the country fell 3.4% in July, worsening from a flat reading in July. The Eurozone HICP in the same period printed at 3.3% as expected, rising from the 2.9% posted in July.
The situation is similar; what’s different is how central banks are reacting to the news: the European Central Bank (ECB) has already hiked interest rates by 25 bps and is expected to deliver a similar rate increase when it meets on Wednesday. The move is largely priced in, which means the impact on the Euro could be limited.
The ECB faces yet another challenge: President Christine Lagarde, whose term as the ECB head ends in October 2027, may be due to an early exit. Market talks suggest she would step down before France’s Presidential elections either to participate in them or to allow President Emmanuel Macron to have a voice on Lagarde’s successor at the central bank. Lagarde refrained from confirming or denying such rumors, but left the door open for an early departure.
Other than the ECB decision, the European macroeconomic calendar will include the final estimates of the German and Eurozone HICP.
There’s yet another factor pushing central banks to raise rates. Government bond yields are on the loose amid inflation-related concerns and geopolitical tensions. Higher borrowing costs affect the country’s economy and add to the inflationary process. Central banks’ tools may not be enough to tame the chaos, but inaction from policymakers will make the picture even worse.
By the end of the week, however, US President Donald Trump, once again called for lower rates: “The Fed Board, with its great new leader, must get smart - BE PATRIOTS for a change. High interest rates put the U.S.A. at a very unfair disadvantage, and I won’t allow that to happen!,” he posted on Truth Social, also threatening to stop trade with countries with higher rates.
Indeed, President Trump’s desire for lower rates is probably the main reason why Chair Kevin Warsh has refrained from hiking rates despite pledging multiple times to fight inflation. The Fed is between a rock and a hard place.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook:
From a technical point of view, the daily chart shows EUR/USD trading with a neutral-to-slightly bullish tone as it consolidates between nearby moving averages. The pair is trading above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1608 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1564, which together suggest a tentative underlying bid, while it remains capped by the 200-day SMA at 1.1634. Momentum fades, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator easing at around 56 and the 14-period Momentum indicator nearing its midline from above, suggesting buyers are losing interest.
On the weekly chart, EUR/USD trades above the 20-, 100-, and 200-week SMAs, with the shortest SMA at 1.1562 providing immediate dynamic support. The broader price placement comfortably above the 100-week SMA at 1.1337 and the 200-week SMA at 1.1075 suggests the medium-term uptrend remains intact, yet technical indicators, holding around their midlines and directionless, suggest investors are unwilling to take stronger positions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is at the 200-day SMA around 1.1634; a daily close above this barrier would open the way for a retest of recent highs in the 1.1710 region, ahead of the 1.1800 threshold. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day SMA near 1.1608, with the 100-day SMA at 1.1564 providing a deeper cushion if the pair slips back. A break beneath this latter level would likely open the door for a steeper decline, with 1.1470 as the next level to watch.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ECB Monetary Policy Statement At each of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) eight governing council meetings, the ECB releases a short statement explaining its monetary policy decision, in light of its goal of meeting its inflation target. The statement may influence the volatility of the Euro (EUR) and determine a short-term positive or negative trend. A hawkish view is considered bullish for EUR, whereas a dovish view is considered bearish.
After declining sharply in the first half of the week, Gold (XAU/USD) managed to erase its losses, reflecting the changes in the market pricing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) possible interest rate decision at the next meeting. Investors will scrutinize August inflation data from the United States (US), while the precious metal’s near-term technical outlook suggests that sellers remain hesitant.
Gold recovers as investors struggle to decide on the Fed’s next moveGold remained under bearish pressure in the first half of the week as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium revived expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Meanwhile, the deepening crisis in the Middle East further weighed on the yellow metal and dragged it to its lowest level since early August, below $4,300 by early Wednesday.
The US and Iran exchanged military strikes for the first time in weeks over the weekend. The US forces attacked two rocket launchers on Iran's Larak Island, and Iran has targeted US bases in Jordan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in response. During the American trading hours on Tuesday, news of the US military carrying out strikes that Tehran claimed killed civilians pointed to a further escalation of the military conflict. Following the attack, US President Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran “will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings.” In response, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it attacked two US military bases in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
In the second half of the day on Wednesday, XAU/USD gathered recovery momentum and closed the day in positive territory. The weaker-than-expected private sector employment data from the US weighed on the US Dollar (USD), while a sharp decline seen in the USD/JPY pair hinted at a possible currency market intervention.
The USD came under renewed selling pressure on Thursday and allowed XAU/USD to extend its rebound into a second consecutive day.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller adopted a cautious stance on policy tightening and caused the USD to lose interest. The key remark that Waller is inclined to support holding the policy rate steady in September if August inflation shows continued progress, but would consider a hike if the data come in hot, underscored a finely balanced, data-dependent reaction function that suggests a rate hike at the next meeting is not a done deal. His acknowledgment of “finally” seeing disinflation alongside still-elevated inflation, and a low tolerance for renewed price pressures, further reaffirmed his reluctance on a possible rate hike. Following Waller’s speech, the CME FedWatch Tool’s probability of a 25 basis points rate hike at the upcoming meeting declined to 50% from about 63% earlier in the week. In turn, Gold climbed above $4,500 late Thursday, erasing its weekly losses in the process.
Commenting on Gold’s price action, analysts at OCBC noted that Gold “rose more than 2% towards $4,510 intra-session high as Waller’s comments prompted markets to pare September Fed hike expectations, pulling UST yields and the USD lower.” They note that this latest move “partly reverses the sharp sell-off earlier in the week, when Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and the rise in global yields had weighed on precious metals.” OCBC adds that “geopolitical tensions remain supportive at the margin, though higher Oil prices are a two-sided risk if they feed back into inflation expectations and yields.”
The data from the US showed on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162K in August. This print surpassed the market expectation for an increase of 56K by a wide margin and boosted the USD with the immediate reaction. Other details of the report showed that the total Nonfarm Payroll employment for June and July was revised up by 11K and 44K, respectively, while the Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Following the impressive labor market report, Gold failed to build on its recovery heading into the weekend.
Gold investors await critical US inflation reportThe Fed will be in the blackout period until the September 15-16 policy meeting. Hence, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday will be the final, and arguably the most important, clue on whether the US central bank will opt for a rate hike.
Fed Governor Waller said that “continued progress toward our 2% goal” is needed for him to vote in favor of a policy hold and explained that his decision will be “influenced by what we learn about August inflation." Although the 2% goal Waller mentioned relates to the annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a reading below July’s 0.2% in the monthly core CPI could be seen as a confirmation of “progress” and trigger a USD selloff with the immediate reaction. In this scenario, XAU/USD is likely to gather bullish momentum heading into the Fed meeting. Conversely, a monthly core CPI reading at or above 0.2% could feed into expectations for a rate hike and weigh heavily on Gold.
In short, Gold is facing a two-way risk with the US inflation data due on Friday, given markets currently see the odds of a rate hike at about 60%, thanks to the strong August jobs data.
According to strategists at TD Securities, the backdrop for bullion has become more supportive, with the bank emphasizing that “we do not anticipate material downside for the yellow metal as the landscape for precious metals has improved amid a renewed Dollar debasement theme, while Fed hikes remain far from certain.” This combination of a softer US Dollar narrative and lingering uncertainty over the Fed’s policy path is seen as helping to anchor Gold prices despite recent volatility.
FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bullish bias holds but lacks strengthThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart managed to recover above the neutral line at 50 after falling below that level earlier in the week. Additionally, Gold reclaimed the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located near $4,350, despite making a daily close below it. Still, the daily RSI remains flat above 50 and Gold is yet to clear the 200-day SMA at $4,535, suggesting that buyers are still reluctant to bet on a steady uptrend.
On the upside, $4,510-$4,535 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the March-August downtrend, 200-day SMA) aligns as a key resistance area. In case Gold stabilizes above this region and confirms it as support, $4,675-$4,700 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the March-August downtrend, round level) could be seen as the next bullish target before $4,850 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement).
Looking south, the first important support level could be spotted at $4,350 (100-day SMA), followed by $4,300-$4,295 (static level, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) and $4,240 (50-day SMA).
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
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Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Gold fell almost $100 on Friday following surprise surge in US nonfarm payrolls that eased worries of US policymakers and boosted expectations of rate hike on Sep 16 policy meeting.
Upbeat US labor data pushed the metal’s price down to over 2.5% and signals that gold would register the second consecutive weekly closing in red.
The fresh drop also weakened technical picture on daily chart as 14-d momentum is pressuring the centreline and south-heading RSI is entering neutrality zone (50), although MAs remain in mixed setup (30/100 bull-cross vs 10/200 death-cross) signaling that further action to the downside is still needed to verify developing negative signals.
Close below previous significant supports at $4400 zone will be minimum requirement, with extension below daily Kijun-sen ($4358) to strengthen negative structure and expose $4319 (50% retracement of $3942/$4697) which contained several attacks so far, and $4268 (daily cloud top) in extension.
Repeated close below daily Tenkan-sen ($4489) is needed to keep near-term bias with bears.
Markets shift focus to US Aug inflation data (due next Friday) which will provide significant information to the central bank ahead of policy meeting.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Key Points:Metals and miners bottomed mid-year and are undergoing a standard pullback before resuming their uptrends.Friday’s better-than-expected employment report will likely extend recent weakness, with the decline potentially accelerating if next week’s CPI print comes in hotter than expected.I outline preliminary suppoI outline preliminary support levels below. I’m particularly intrigued by the bullish setups developing in gold and silver miners, as I believe they are positioned to outperform into next year. rt levels below. I’m particularly intrigued by the bullish setups developing in gold and silver miners, as I believe they are positioned to outperform into next year.
In this article:Gold
-1.11%
Gold ForecastSilver
-1.36%
Silver ForecastGold Gold bottomed mid-year, as forecasted, and prices are undergoing a mid-cycle correction. Friday’s better-than-expected payroll numbers will likely keep downside pressure on metals, which could intensify if next week’s CPI print comes in hotter than expected. Ideal support for this pullback is around $4,150 (+/- $50).
Silver Silver bottomed in July within our target box, and prices are now undergoing a standard 1–2 week pullback. Look for support around $60.00, although a brief dip below that level is possible if CPI comes in well above expectations.
Platinum Platinum is poised to dip to support between $1,650 and $1,700 as we head into the September 16 Fed announcement. Once the correction is complete, the uptrend should resume, with new all-time highs expected next year.
GDX Miners are setting up for a textbook three-wave pullback into key support at the crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages, just above $90.00. We expect miners to make new all-time highs well ahead of gold, continuing to lead the metals complex higher from here.
GDXJ Junior gold miners have a similarly bullish setup, with prices pulling back toward key support at the crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages.
SILJ Silver juniors could test support around $29.00 (+/- $1.00) to complete this pullback into mid-month. They, too, should reach new all-time highs well ahead of silver, as they are expected to outperform going forward.
Bitcoin Bitcoin surged 25% in August, surprising the bears. Near-term prices may have reached an interim cycle peak on September 3rd. A close below $75,000 would support renewed weakness into mid-November, potentially pushing prices to fresh lows before the four-year cycle officially bottoms in Q4.
Conclusion After a 6-month correction, the uptrend in precious metals is resuming. Prices will likely correct a bit further into the September 16th Fed announcement, with target levels subject to change as new information emerges, particularly next week’s CPI report.
Overall, we view this as a brief pullback within a larger uptrend. We expect new all-time highs next year, with gold potentially targeting $7,000+. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst, walks through the gold, silver, and U.S. dollar index charts and sets out what confirms the metals move and what breaks it.
50-Day EMA Support and Labor Day Liquidity The market right now finds itself just above the crucial 50-day EMA, and whether or not that holds as support, we’ll have to wait and see. My suspicion is there is probably somewhat of a lack of volume in the US right now anyways. It’s not uncommon for people to take 4-day holidays for Labor Day weekend, so couple that with a jobs number that caught everybody off guard, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a real reaction on Monday, heading into Tuesday once traders come back to work in the Asian session, and then probably build up a little bit as we go into New York on Tuesday.
As things stand right now, not much has changed. We’re just in the same consolidation we were in just a couple of weeks ago. Longer term, I still like gold, but I recognize that higher rates for longer is a recipe for trouble.
Gold fell almost $100 on Friday following surprise surge in US nonfarm payrolls that eased worries of US policymakers and boosted expectations of rate hike on Sep 16 policy meeting.
Upbeat US labor data pushed the metal’s price down to over 2.5% and signals that gold would register the second consecutive weekly closing in red.
The fresh drop also weakened technical picture on daily chart as 14-d momentum is pressuring the centreline and south-heading RSI is entering neutrality zone (50), although MAs remain in mixed setup (30/100 bull-cross vs 10/200 death-cross) signaling that further action to the downside is still needed to verify developing negative signals.
Close below previous significant supports at $4400 zone will be minimum requirement, with extension below daily Kijun-sen ($4358) to strengthen negative structure and expose $4319 (50% retracement of $3942/$4697) which contained several attacks so far, and $4268 (daily cloud top) in extension.
Repeated close below daily Tenkan-sen ($4489) is needed to keep near-term bias with bears.
Markets shift focus to US Aug inflation data (due next Friday) which will provide significant information to the central bank ahead of policy meeting.
Well, that was quite a straightforward initial reaction in the market. But once the dust settled, we saw a quick return to pre-NFP levels on many markets, as traders realised it is the CPI – due next week – that matter more right now. Meanwhile, Trump has bizarrely suggested that the Fed should CUT rates because of the strong jobs numbers. That’s not going to happen, rest assured. The dollar bulls could re-emerge later especially against currencies where there is no yield advantage. Given the shenanigans in the Japanese yen market, I think the USD/CHF is the pair to keep an eye on as it could rise with the US yield advantage growing post NFP.
Source: TradingView.com
Anyway, the US jobs report came out much stronger than expected, for a change. And good news was bad news, I suppose, as the big beat sent rate-hike expectations soaring, causing stocks, gold and crypto to take a bit of a quick, but mini dump. Soon after, though, those moves reversed, and in some cases entirely. The bond market also fell, yields rose, and markets are now expecting the Fed to hike interest rates in September, with the probability rising to 59% from 49% before the data was released. Let’s see how the markets will take it from here on, now that we have had the usual spike and return to pre-jobs levels.
How good was the NFP data?
As far as the data is concerned, the headline number was quite strong at 162,000, compared with just 56,000 expected. That was a much better performance compared with the previous month.
Speaking of the previous month, the -23,000 figure was revised to +21,000. The net revision for the prior two months was +55,000. When you consider the revisions alongside the big beat, it was a strong number overall, and markets reacted in the way you would have expected - at least initially anyway.
The unemployment rate, meanwhile, stayed the same at 4.1%, so there were no surprises there.
Average hourly earnings came in at 0.3% month over month, again in line with expectations. However, the year-over-year rate beat expectations, coming in at 3.1% compared with 3% expected.
So that’s another sign that inflation isn’t weakening, with wage growth remaining relatively firm.
Focus turns to CPI
The focus will now turn to the US CPI report due next week. And given Fed Governor Waller’s suggestion yesterday that he will wait for the CPI data before deciding whether to vote for a hike or hold, it looks like many traders will be looking forward to that CPI release. Hence, the post-NFP reaction quickly faded as traders took profit.
Anyway, CPI is the last major piece of data before the Fed meets again in a couple of weeks’ time.
For now, it looks like a rate hike could be on the way, with the market increasing expectations of such an outcome.
What to expect from markets next?
So, the key question now is: will we see some weakness following the jobs report for equity and other markets sensitive to rate expectations?
Well, so far, the reaction has been interesting. US index futures were slightly higher before the data release, but they turned negative after the jobs report, not by a huge degree, but there was a bit of a pullback. However, the initial moves unwound quite quickly.
Now, it all depends on whether the market thinks a Fed hike is definitely on the cards. And to some degree, a lot will also depend on the price of oil, which has weakened today but has been going up over the last few days.
So, keep an eye on oil prices, as they could have an important impact on market sentiment.
As far as the US dollar is concerned, the initial reaction was a positive one, as you would have expected.
Interestingly, though, the USD/JPY remained heavy. It couldn’t move much above 156.00 initially, and after the data was released, it quickly sold off, suggesting there was perhaps some continuing intervention in that market.
Elsewhere, EUR/USD fell below the 1.1600 handle, reaching a low so far of around 1.1580 to 1.1585, before bouncing back from there at the time of writing to reach near pre-data levels of 1.1615. Gold also fell and the bounced off its low.
The question now is whether we will see fresh losses for assets like gold, indices and bitcoin, or whether we’ll see the return of the US dollar debasement trade, where the dollar sells off despite stronger US economic data. So far, it has been the latter, but the US session has just started.
In a nutshell
So far, it’s been a fairly mild reaction to the strong jobs report. The initial reaction wasn’t too significant, suggesting that markets are perhaps waiting for next week’s CPI release before deciding whether to punish the dollar or buy it more decisively. The jury is still out.
Daily price chart for Silver futures showing price at 65.800, resting right along the 200 EMA (65.660) and the 50 EMA (65.200). Source: TradingView The silver market has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Friday as the jobs number came out well over anticipated results. The expected number was right around 55,000 jobs added last month in America, ended up being 162,000, a huge miss, and to the upside. So that has traders worried about the potential of inflation, higher interest rates coming out of the Federal Reserve, and that typically is bad for silver. That explains part of what we’re seeing here.
Moving Average Support and Labor Day Volatility Ultimately though, it’s a market that is still well within the range of normalcy right around the 200-day EMA, as well as the 50-day EMA. So, as poor as the reaction was initially, at least so far, it doesn’t seem to be irreversible damage.
EUR/USD slides after strong US jobs data as USD/JPY tests a major swing low and USD/CAD surges following a sharp Canadian employment miss.
In this article:EUR/USD
-0.12%
EUR/USD ForecastUSD/JPY
+0.13%
USD/JPY ForecastUSD/CAD
+0.45%
USD/CAD Forecast
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD price chart showing price at 1.16006, trading below the 50 EMA (1.16133) and the 200 EMA (1.16155). Source: TradingView The euro has plunged after the much stronger-than-anticipated jobs number coming out of the United States, sending it all the way down to basically 1.1585 or so before bouncing. I think we now have a range-bound market that doesn’t really know what to do. I currently have this range between yesterday’s point where I said I would be a seller at 1.1640 and the bottom here at 1.1580.
I do favor, I suppose, the downside from a longer-term standpoint still, but this is a market that, at least in the short term, probably is going to bounce around. Keep in mind Monday is a holiday in the United States.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY price chart showing price at 155.732, trading below the 50 EMA (156.968) and the 200 EMA (158.518). Source: TradingView The dollar-yen is suddenly a lot more interesting to me. This is a major swing low that we find ourselves testing again. It was interesting that the initial reaction was to go to the upside. Makes sense: interest rate spike. I think there’s a real chance of a bounce here, but having said that, there’s a lot of fear out there about the Bank of Japan. I think longer term, the Bank of Japan has very limited options, but it is an interesting turnaround.
So, I’ll be watching this today to see how it plays out. We can see that it is getting pretty aggressive. I think somebody’s trying to keep this from popping higher based on the action that I see right now. That being said, if we take out the top of this candlestick, that’d be pretty bullish.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis USD/CAD price chart showing price at 1.38654, bouncing sharply above the 200 EMA (1.38508). Source: TradingView The dollar against the Canadian dollar is just screaming higher. Not a huge surprise; there are a lot of things working against Canada right now, not the least of which is the United States. Canadian employment came in at -41,000 as opposed to the supposed addition of 15,000, so that’s a huge miss for Canada; it’s a huge gain for the United States. The trade war going on at the same time, of course, has major ramifications as well. I am bullish, looking at short-term pullbacks as buying opportunities.
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EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/CHF Forecast: Dollar Faces NFP RiskUS Dollar Price Forecast: Weak ADP Hits DXY as NFP Becomes the Next Test; Key Levels for EUR/USD and GBP/USD TodayEUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/CHF Face Key Dollar TestsAbout the Author
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.
GBP/USD recovers part of its initial drop on Friday after stronger-than-expected United States (US) employment data briefly lifts the US Dollar (USD). The pair fell to an intraday low of 1.3482 immediately after the release before rebounding. At the time of writing, GBP/USD trades around 1.3512.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 162K in August, almost three times the market forecast of 56K. July’s reading was revised to a gain of 21K from the previously reported 23K decline, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.11 after rising as high as 99.39 in response to the employment report, but holds above the more than one-week low of 98.83 touched on Thursday.
The short-lived decline in GBP/USD suggests traders are not fully convinced that the stronger employment figures will be enough to secure a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike this month. Recent comments from Fed officials indicate that policymakers are more focused on restoring price stability, making next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports crucial for the September decision.
Recent inflation figures have shown some moderation. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation” and that the current interest-rate setting could bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target. However, Waller added that he would consider a September rate hike if the August inflation data comes in hot.
The strong jobs report has nevertheless pushed rate hike expectations higher. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see around a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase at the September 15-16 meeting, up from roughly 50% before the NFP release.
On the UK side, hawkish remarks from Bank of England (BoE) Chief Economist Huw Pill provide some support to the Pound Sterling (GBP). Pill reiterated his preference for raising the Bank Rate to 4%, although markets largely expect the BoE to leave rates unchanged at 3.75% later this month.
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey highlight that central banks, led by China and Poland, continued net Gold purchases in July, supporting structural demand despite a slower pace than last year. They add that Gold prices rose over 2% after weaker US employment data and comments from Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller suggesting openness to holding rates steady if inflation behaves.
Official demand and Fed rhetoric support"Central banks continued to add to gold reserves in July, reporting net purchases of 23 tonnes, according to World Gold Council data. Emerging market central banks remained the main buyers, led by China and Poland. China's central bank extended its buying streak to 21 consecutive months, adding 20 tonnes."
"Although central bank buying has slowed compared to a year ago, official sector demand continues to provide support for the gold market. Ongoing reserve diversification efforts among emerging economies should help sustain structural demand, even if purchases moderate from recent highs."
"Gold prices rose more than 2% on Thursday following a weaker-than-expected ADP employment report on Wednesday. Comments from US Federal Reserve official Christopher Waller, suggesting he is open to keeping rates on hold at the next FOMC meeting (assuming no surprises on the inflation front), provided an additional boost."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD comes under selling pressure on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens following the release of the upbeat United States (US) employment report. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1605, down roughly 0.18% on the day, after retreating from an intraday high of 1.1633.
US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 162K in August, comfortably beating expectations for a 56K increase. July’s reading was revised sharply higher to a gain of 21K from the previously reported 23K decline, while June payrolls were revised to 31K from 20K. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%, as expected.
The US Dollar strengthens following the employment report, while US Treasury yields also move higher across the curve. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.20 after falling to a more-than-one-week low of 98.83 on Thursday. Meanwhile, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield retests 4.81%, its highest level since October 2023, touched earlier this week.
The stronger employment figures revive expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise interest rates at its September 15-16 meeting. Still, the jobs report may not settle the September policy debate on its own. Next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data will give policymakers a clearer picture of inflation before the Fed announces its decision.
On the Euro (EUR) side, weaker-than-expected Eurozone Retail Sales add some pressure. However, expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates at its September 9-10 meeting could limit the Euro’s losses. The ECB is widely expected to deliver a second rate hike this year as higher Oil prices amid tensions in the Middle East keep inflation risks elevated.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%0.15%0.09%0.42%0.10%0.11%0.44%EUR-0.18%-0.03%-0.09%0.27%-0.09%-0.05%0.26%GBP-0.15%0.03%-0.04%0.29%-0.05%-0.02%0.28%JPY-0.09%0.09%0.04%0.34%-0.01%0.03%0.33%CAD-0.42%-0.27%-0.29%-0.34%-0.35%-0.32%-0.01%AUD-0.10%0.09%0.05%0.00%0.35%0.03%0.33%NZD-0.11%0.05%0.02%-0.03%0.32%-0.03%0.30%CHF-0.44%-0.26%-0.28%-0.33%0.00%-0.33%-0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates with marginal losses on Friday following back-to-back daily gains, as traders avoid taking large positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $67 caps the immediate upside, while momentum indicators point to limited bullish strength. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $66.80.
The US economy is expected to add 56K jobs in August after shedding 23K in July, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%. The US economy is expected to add 56K jobs in August after shedding 23K in July, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%.
The figures are likely to play a key role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its September 15-16 monetary policy meeting, with the CME FedWatch Tool currently showing around a 50% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike.
A stronger-than-expected NFP could keep XAG/USD below the 100-day SMA, while a disappointing result may clear the way for a bullish breakout.
Technical analysis
XAG/USD holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $62, but remains below the 100-day SMA and the 200-day SMA, leaving the near-term bias broadly neutral with a slight topside cap.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart around 55 hints at modest bullish momentum, yet the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 17 suggests a weak underlying trend.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains marginally negative, although the fading red histogram bars indicate that bearish momentum is easing, reinforcing the idea of a consolidation phase rather than a clear directional move.
On the downside, the 50-day SMA near $62 and the psychological $60 mark form a strong support zone, followed by a more robust horizontal floor around $55.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA near $67, followed by the 200-day SMA around $72. A break above these levels could open the door towards the $80 mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/USD rose to 1.1627. The US dollar fell sharply yesterday and remains under pressure today. Pressure on the US currency intensified after a Federal Reserve official made more dovish comments, prompting markets to scale back expectations for a September rate hike.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that he would support keeping rates unchanged if price pressures continue to ease. According to him, the next policy decision will largely depend on August inflation data, due for release next week.
Markets now put the probability of a September rate hike at approximately 50%, down from around 63% the previous day. Friday’s US labour market report for August will provide another important signal and could significantly shift market expectations for Fed policy.
Another factor weighing on the dollar has been the yen’s sharp appreciation. Investors are monitoring the risk of currency intervention while also assessing the likelihood of more aggressive Bank of Japan policy tightening before year-end.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is moving lower towards 1.1611. A consolidation range is currently forming around this level. A move higher towards 1.1657 is possible, followed by a further decline to 1.1555. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downward, indicating continued bearish momentum and scope for further downside.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed another downward move to 1.1625. A consolidation range is currently forming around this level. A move lower towards 1.1611 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 1.1657. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downward towards 20.
Conclusion EUR/USD has gained ground as the dollar retreats following dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who signalled a preference for keeping rates unchanged if inflation continues to ease. The implied probability of a September rate hike has fallen from 63% to 50%, with markets now focused on Friday’s US jobs report and next week’s inflation data for further guidance. The sharp appreciation of the yen has also contributed to dollar weakness, as investors weigh intervention risks and the prospect of more aggressive BoJ tightening. Technically, the pair may see a near-term bounce towards 1.1657 before resuming its broader bearish trend towards 1.1555. The US labour market report will be the key catalyst for the next directional move.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
EUR/USD rose to 1.1627. The US dollar fell sharply yesterday and remains under pressure today. Pressure on the US currency intensified after a Federal Reserve official made more dovish comments, prompting markets to scale back expectations for a September rate hike.
Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that he would support keeping rates unchanged if price pressures continue to ease. According to him, the next policy decision will largely depend on August inflation data, due for release next week.
Markets now put the probability of a September rate hike at approximately 50%, down from around 63% the previous day. Friday’s US labour market report for August will provide another important signal and could significantly shift market expectations for Fed policy.
Another factor weighing on the dollar has been the yen’s sharp appreciation. Investors are monitoring the risk of currency intervention while also assessing the likelihood of more aggressive Bank of Japan policy tightening before year-end.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market is moving lower towards 1.1611. A consolidation range is currently forming around this level. A move higher towards 1.1657 is possible, followed by a further decline to 1.1555. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downward, indicating continued bearish momentum and scope for further downside.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed another downward move to 1.1625. A consolidation range is currently forming around this level. A move lower towards 1.1611 is expected today, followed by a rebound to 1.1657. The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing firmly downward towards 20.
ConclusionEUR/USD has gained ground as the dollar retreats following dovish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who signalled a preference for keeping rates unchanged if inflation continues to ease. The implied probability of a September rate hike has fallen from 63% to 50%, with markets now focused on Friday’s US jobs report and next week’s inflation data for further guidance. The sharp appreciation of the yen has also contributed to dollar weakness, as investors weigh intervention risks and the prospect of more aggressive BoJ tightening. Technically, the pair may see a near-term bounce towards 1.1657 before resuming its broader bearish trend towards 1.1555. The US labour market report will be the key catalyst for the next directional move.
Gold (XAU/USD) moves quietly on Friday after two straight days of gains, as traders appear reluctant to take fresh positions ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 GMT. The metal briefly climbed above $4,500 on Thursday, rising nearly 2% on the back of a softer US Dollar (USD), a modest pullback in Treasury yields and less hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,472.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar also steadies after losing about 0.55% on Thursday and slipping below 99.00 to its lowest level in more than a week. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.11.
The US economy is expected to add 56K jobs in August after shedding 23K in July, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to hold at 4.1%. Markets will also closely watch wage growth and any revisions to the July payrolls figure, after May and June employment gains were revised down by a combined 103K in the previous report.
Fed Governor Waller said on Thursday he is “finally seeing some signs of disinflation,” adding that the “current rate setting could get us back to 2% inflation.” He also said the “rate decision in September hinges on August inflation” and that “if August inflation data comes in hot, I would consider a rate hike.”
His remarks prompted traders to pare back rate hike bets for the upcoming September 15-16 meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the odds of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate increase now stand at around 50%, down from roughly 63% before Waller spoke.
A stronger-than-expected NFP report could revive Fed rate hike bets and lift the US Dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on the non-yielding metal. Conversely, another weak payroll reading could strengthen the case for the Fed to keep rates unchanged, helping Gold reclaim the $4,500 mark.
Analysts at OCBC remain “constructive” on Gold, but caution that the near-term path is likely to stay “highly sensitive to Fed repricing.” They highlight that “payrolls tonight may drive the next move in yields and the USD,” while “next week’s CPI and PPI should be more decisive in determining whether the recent disinflation trend is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold.” OCBC experts also note that “geopolitical tensions remain supportive at the margin,” but warn that “higher oil prices are a two-sided risk if they feed back into inflation expectations and yields.”
Technical analysis: Buyers eye 200-day SMA
XAU/USD holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly $4,354 while remaining capped beneath the 200-day SMA near $4,534, leaving the broader tone neutral and consolidative.
Price has reclaimed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at about $4,448, turning it into immediate support, yet it has not challenged the 23.6% retracement at $4,544 overhead.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart around 55 suggests mildly positive momentum, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, hinting that recovery attempts still face supply near the 200-day average.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci level around $4,448, followed by the 50.0% retracement at $4,371 and the 100-day SMA near $4,354. A deeper slide would expose the 61.8% retracement at $4,293 and the lower Fibonacci steps at $4,183 and $4,042.
On the topside, bulls need to clear the 200-day SMA near $4,534, with the 23.6% retracement at $4,544 acting as a subsequent cap. A sustained break above these levels would open the path toward the prior swing high area around $4,700.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.7203 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair is broadly firm as the US Dollar remains under pressure, with traders reassessing Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.
Dollar softens as Fed hike odds retreatAnalysts at MUFG observe that the US rates market has scaled back expectations for near-term tightening, with pricing now implying “close to a 50:50 probability of a Fed rate hike this month” compared with “closer to a 70% probability of a hike at the start of this month.” They attribute this “dovish repricing of Fed rate hike expectations in recent days” to “the cautious comments from the Fed’s leadership over the need for rate hikes.”
In particular, MUFG highlights remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who said recent inflation data has been “encouraging” and that he sees “the trend in inflation moving slowly down as some of the effects of the tariffs move into the rearview mirror.” Williams also stressed that the Fed is “collecting a lot of data now, and will reassess whether rates remain in a good place for the economy.”
Meanwhile, investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Market experts believe that encouraging comments on inflation from Fed’s Williams has underscored the upcoming inflation data as key driver of monetary policy expectations over the official employment report.
MUFG said that it expects the upcoming labour market release to play a more limited role in shaping policy expectations against the backdrop of Fed Williams’s comments, stating: “we expect today’s nonfarm payrolls report to prove less important for Fed rate hike expectations than next week’s CPI report,” a dynamic they see as “helping to dampen the impact on US rates and the US dollar.”
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.7203, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7136. The pair extends its advance after reclaiming this dynamic support, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 66 stays in bullish territory, suggesting buyers retain control even as conditions approach overbought.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 0.7200 area, with the 20-day EMA at 0.7136 acting as a secondary floor that would need to give way to signal a deeper correction. Looking up, the pair aims to revisit the four-year high near 0.7280.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Williams flags strong economy behind higher yields as inflation trend coolsFed's Williams delivered a mildly hawkish-leaning message, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score just above the 5.9/10 historical average, emphasizing that rising yields reflect a strong economy and robust outlook rather than worsening inflation expectations. The focus on tariffs and Middle East conflict as key drivers of above-target inflation, alongside contained expectations and a trend toward lower inflation with a stable labor market, signals confidence that the Fed can stay data-dependent while keeping 2% as the clear priority.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 1.42 points to 127.44, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness despite the still-elevated stance. With the index firmly above the 100 neutral line, markets continue to see policy as hawkish overall, but the slight decline suggests some easing in the perceived urgency for additional tightening relative to recent readings captured by the FXS Speechtracker.
The NFP arrives today with the odds of a rate hike from the Fed slipping back to around 50% and correspondingly the dollar sold off again yesterday. That was due to comments from Fed's Waller who said next week's CPI could determine whether he votes for a hike or hold.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades flat at the $4,470 area on Friday, as the previous two days’ rebound from $4,280 failed to find acceptance above the $4,500 psychological area. US Treasury yields have pulled back from highs as markets reassess the odds for an interest rate in September, but investors remain wary of selling the US Dollar ahead of the release of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, due later on the day.
Analysts at OCBC note that gold “rose more than 2% towards $4,510 intra-session high as Waller’s comments prompted markets to pare September Federal Reserve (Fed) hike expectations, pulling UST yields and the USD lower.”
The bank remains constructive on the pair, although they warn that "near-term direction is likely to stay highly sensitive to Fed repricing,” with NFP data seen as a potential driver of yields and the USD, while “next week’s CPI and PPI should be more decisive in determining whether the recent disinflation trend is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold.”
Technical Analysis: Gold nears key resistance at the 200-day SMA
XAU/USD trades at $4,464, still to confirm above a previous support area around $4.470 (August 20 low). Momentum indicators in the daily chart fail to provide a clear view, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) struggles to take off from the key 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), still in negative territory, suggests that downside pressure is moderating, rather than fully reversing.
Gold bulls face a string of resistances at the mentioned $4,470 area, the psychological $4,500 level, and especially the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $4,534. This is a very popular indicator for FX traders, and a confirmation above that line would suggest that the correction from $4,690 highs in late August has completed
Bearish attempts, on the other hand, are likely to find support between the August 14 low, at $4,311, and the intra-week low of $4,282. A potential reversal from the 200-day SMA below these levels would confirm a "Head and Shoulders" pattern and add pressure towards the August 6 low of $4,220 and the late July lows near $4,000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.67 per troy ounce, down 0.46% from the $66.98 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 6.21% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 66.97 on Friday, up from 66.79 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing after Australia’s Q2 GDP surprised sharply to the upside, pushing the market-implied probability of a September RBA hike from 48% to 57%, with a November move now more than fully priced. Governor Bullock’s board has already flagged upside inflation risks tied to Middle East-driven energy costs, and rising Australian bond yields, which touched their highest level since April 2011 this week, are only reinforcing that hawkish backdrop.
Across the Tasman, the RBNZ delivered exactly what all five major New Zealand bank economists expected on Wednesday: a 25bp hike to 2.75%, the second consecutive increase after July’s tightening move. Headline inflation remains elevated at 4.1%, though the central bank’s own projections signal a likely pause in October before potentially resuming in December, leaving markets pricing roughly a 30% chance of another hike this year.
The result: two central banks now both firmly in tightening mode, though the RBA’s path still carries more near-term uncertainty than the RBNZ’s, whose next move already looks broadly telegraphed through year-end.
Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD
As the AUD/NZD chart shows, the pair staged a sharp rally from the 1.19633 low, riding a steep ascending trendline that has powered the entire late-August advance. That rally has since run into resistance near the 1.22897 high, the 0 Fibonacci level, where price is now consolidating just above the 0.236 retracement near 1.22127, caught between a shorter-term descending trendline from this week’s peak and the broader medium-term descending trendline that has capped the pair since late June.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the 0.236 retracement and the ascending trendline while breaking above the short-term descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 1.22897 high. A confirmed break above that level would mark a genuine shift in the broader multi-month structure.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the 0.236 level and the steep ascending trendline would expose the intermediate 1.213–1.215 support zone, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement. A deeper slide below that zone would risk a fuller retracement of the late-August rally, back towards the 0.618–0.786 area near 1.203–1.209.
With price squeezed between a reclaimed short-term trendline, a defended ascending trendline, and the long-term descending trendline, AUD/NZD looks poised for a decisive move. Will the RBA’s hawkish momentum push the pair through resistance, or will the broader downtrend since June reassert control?
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ING’s Chris Turner writes that EUR/USD is grinding higher as markets reverse the earlier sell-off triggered by Kevin Warsh’s speech, with the pair moving back toward 1.1650. A softer Dollar backdrop versus EMFX and pro-growth G10 currencies supports the Euro. Turner also flags German local election risks and sees EUR/GBP holding a range before a potential move to 0.87 in the fourth quarter.
Euro benefits from softer Dollar tone"EUR/USD is drifting higher as markets unwind the moves made on the back of Warsh's speech a week ago. EUR/USD had been trading around 1.1650 before that speech and looks to be grinding back in that direction now."
"The generally offered dollar environment against EMFX and pro-growth currencies in the G10 space is creating a supportive environment for EUR/USD – even if the Fed story is uncertain."
"One left-field risk for the euro is the upcoming local elections in Germany. Major success for the AfD in Sunday's Saxony-Anhalt elections may raise more questions over the stability of Friedrich Merz's government."
"Elsewhere, EUR/GBP is consolidating after breaking above 0.86 yesterday. No doubt the gilt sell-off, and what it means for strained UK public finances, played a role there."
"It seems too early to get the all-clear on inflation, meaning that up to 60bp of BoE tightening can sit in UK money markets for a while longer. That probably means EUR/GBP can trade 0.8550-0.8600 before breaking higher to 0.87 in the fourth quarter."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
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The GBP/USD pair attracts some buyers for the second straight day, though it lacks follow-through and remains capped near mid-1.3500s through the early European session on Friday. Spot prices, for now, seem to have stalled the recovery from a nearly three-week low, touched on Wednesday, as traders keenly await the release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP).
The closely watched US monthly employment details will be looked upon for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path, which, in turn, will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair. Heading into the key data risk, some repositioning trade helps the Greenback recover part of the previous day's heavy losses to over a one-week low and acts as a headwind for the currency pair.
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties amid renewed US-Iran hostilities and clashes over the Strait of Hormuz turn out to be another factor underpinning the safe-haven USD. However, reduced bets for a September Fed rate hike, along with soft US bond yields, hold back USD bulls from placing aggressive bets and might act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair, warranting caution before positioning for any meaningful downside.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair maintains a mild bullish bias above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August rally. Moreover, momentum indicators are constructive, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just above the neutral 50 level and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sitting above the signal line in positive territory.
This hints that the upside pressure is gradually building as the 38.2% Fibo. at 1.3525 turns into nearby support. This is followed by the 200-period SMA around 1.3490 and the 50.0% retracement near 1.3476, with deeper cushions at the 61.8% and 78.6% levels at 1.3428 and 1.3359, respectively. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. at 1.3584, ahead of a more significant hurdle at the prior swing high region around 1.3681.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
The Dollar-Yen rate has already reached MUFG's end-Q4 forecast as intervention risk and expectations of further BoJ tightening support the Yen. The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate recovered to around 156.3 on Friday after sliding to 155.31, its lowest level for a month.
The pair lost more than 2% over the previous 48 hours and has already traded below MUFG's 156 end-Q4 forecast.
MUFG's September target of 158 is also now above the market, suggesting that the Yen rally has developed more quickly than the bank expected.
Image: USD/JPY 48hr chart The chart shows USD/JPY falling from almost 160 to below 155.50 before finding some support around 156.
MUFG Sees USD/JPY Falling Towards 152 MUFG forecasts USD/JPY at 158 for the end of September, followed by 156 in Q4 2026, 154 in Q1 2027 and 152 by Q2 2027.
Its projected trading range falls from 155-165 in September to 149-159 by the second quarter of next year.
These are period-end forecasts rather than a prediction of an uninterrupted decline, with Japanese fiscal concerns and the trade deficit still capable of limiting Yen gains.
MUFG said: “Japan's trade deficit remains a source of yen weakness, but the impact of intervention, more stable oil prices, and the prospect of further BOJ rate hikes make an accelerating yen-depreciation spiral like that seen in 2022 less likely.”
Intervention Risk Changes the Japanese Yen Outlook Joint Japanese and US action has made traders more cautious about rebuilding short-Yen positions.
“Japan's FX intervention since the end of July has reached JPY15.4tn, while Japan and the US have signaled that they remain prepared to intervene jointly again.”
Current market pricing assigns approximately a 75% probability to a September BoJ rate increase.
MUFG also believes the BoJ could respond if renewed Federal Reserve tightening placed the Yen under fresh pressure.
“Even if the Fed resumes rate hikes, the meeting calendar would put the BOJ in a position to follow with a hike of its own.”
That view supports the broader pattern of longer-term Yen recovery forecasts, although the speed of the current move raises the risk of a short-term correction.
Near-Term USD/JPY Forecast: US Data Will Decide Whether 152 Comes Into View A softer US rate outlook remains an important part of MUFG's case.
“The Fed is therefore likely to wait for the August employment and CPI reports before deciding whether to raise rates in September. We think it would be premature at this stage to regard a hike as a foregone conclusion.”
Weak US employment data would reinforce the decline towards 154 and eventually 152.
A strong report could instead lift Treasury yields and trigger a USD/JPY rebound, particularly after such a rapid Yen advance.
Attention now turns to the US employment report, followed by the Federal Reserve meeting on 15-16 September and the BoJ decision on 17-18 September.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
OCBC’s Christopher Wong reports Gold rebounded over 2% towards 4510 as Waller’s comments led markets to pare September Fed hike expectations, lowering UST yields and the Dollar. Wong remains constructive but notes near-term direction will hinge on Fed repricing, with upcoming payrolls, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) key. Geopolitical tensions are marginally supportive, while higher Oil poses a two-sided inflation risk.
Constructive but data-sensitive gold outlook"Gold rose more than 2% towards 4510 intra-session high as Waller’s comments prompted markets to pare Sept Fed hike expectations, pulling UST yields and the USD lower."
"The rebound partly reverses the sharp sell-off earlier in the week, when Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks and the rise in global yields had weighed on precious metals."
"We remain constructive, although near-term direction is likely to stay highly sensitive to Fed repricing. Payrolls tonight may drive the next move in yields and the USD, while next week’s CPI and PPI should be more decisive in determining whether the recent disinflation trend is sufficient to keep the Fed on hold."
"Geopolitical tensions remain supportive at the margin, though higher oil prices are a two-sided risk if they feed back into inflation expectations and yields."
"Gold last at 4474 levels. Mild bearish momentum on daily chart intact while RSI rose. 2-way risks with bias to buy dips. Immediate resistance at 4520/30 levels (200 DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 low to Aug high). Decisive break may reopen room for gold to make another attempt around 4700 levels. Support at 4410 (38.2% fibo), 4360 (100 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Japanese Yen (JPY) is trimming some gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, but still on track to its strongest weekly performance since July’s US-Japan coordinated intervention. The USD/JPY pair bounced from lows at the 155.30 area, returning to levels above 156.00, but upside traction remains weak, and previous support at the 156.70 area is likely to pose significant resistance.
Markets are still wondering about reasons for a 500-pip USD/JPY plunge between Wednesday and Thursday. Analysts at MUFG note that “it is not entirely clear whether the moves in USD/JPY were driven by FX intervention,” yet point out that “from what we do know, Bank of Japan current account data for Wednesday do not suggest the moves were driven by intervention.”
More broadly on the policy outlook, MUFG highlights that “BoJ Board Member Takata – one of BoJ’s most hawkish members – gave a speech earlier this week leaving the door open for an outsized interest rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes,” underscoring the risk that the central bank could contemplate a faster pace of tightening if conditions warrant.
Technical Analysis: US Dollar's recovery seems like a dead cat bounce
USD/JPY trades at 156.37, about 100 pips above Thursday's trough, with momentum indicators in the daily chart still well into bearish territory. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near 34, just above oversold levels, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero, altogether suggesting that downside pressure remains in place.
Bulls would need to reclaim horizontal resistance at a previous support area around 156.70 (August 7 low). If that level gives way, the focus will shift to the area between the August 18 and 19 lows, around 158.05 and the 200-day SMA, at 158.50.
On the downside, the support area around 155.00 has held downside attempts several times since May. When key supports like this break, they tend to boost confidence for bears. In this case, pressure would increase towards the February 23 low, near 154.00, and the year-to-date lows around 152.20.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.01%-0.15%0.33%0.01%-0.04%-0.14%0.12%EUR0.01%-0.14%0.33%0.04%-0.04%-0.10%0.13%GBP0.15%0.14%0.47%0.19%0.11%0.04%0.26%JPY-0.33%-0.33%-0.47%-0.28%-0.36%-0.43%-0.21%CAD-0.01%-0.04%-0.19%0.28%-0.07%-0.16%0.08%AUD0.04%0.04%-0.11%0.36%0.07%-0.07%0.14%NZD0.14%0.10%-0.04%0.43%0.16%0.07%0.23%CHF-0.12%-0.13%-0.26%0.21%-0.08%-0.14%-0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Today, 4 September, the market’s main focus is the August US employment report. According to CNBC, the consensus forecast calls for just 53,000 nonfarm jobs to be added following July’s decline, highlighting the continued weakness of the labour market. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s focus is shifting towards inflation risks. In the eurozone, a Reuters poll showed that all 65 economists surveyed expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its 10 September meeting, while around 91% expect the rate to remain at that level through the end of the year.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD
On 21 August, a peak formed around 1.1700 on the four-hour chart, from which a trend and a descending trendline developed. The price repeatedly rejected this trendline to the downside, eventually reaching a low of 1.1570 on 2 September. The following day, the trendline was broken to the upside on increased volume, and the price is now attempting to establish itself above it, as well as above the upper boundary of the current market profile at 1.1610.
A red resistance area is located around 1.1660 above the established market density. In the event of a false breakout followed by a further decline, the asset could trade within the market density or continue lower. However, for this to happen, the price would need not only to test the upper boundary but also break through the Point of Control (POC) at 1.1600 and the lower boundary of the profile at 1.1580. Just below the lower boundary of the profile, there is also a green support area around 1.1570.
The RSI + MAs indicator is showing readings of 58, 45 and 45. The oscillator has moved above the neutral zone, while both moving averages remain red and close to its lower boundary, so they are not yet confirming the breakout.
Key Takeaways The divergence between the RSI and its moving averages leaves the sustainability of the recovery uncertain, and the market may need more time for the other components of the breakout to develop. The August US employment report could provide an additional catalyst for the pair over the coming hours, with its significance for the Fed’s September decision having increased further against the backdrop of an expected ECB rate hike.
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Silver price (XAG/USD) retreats to near $66.30 in the European trading session on Friday after posting a fresh five-day high near $68.00. The white metal comes under pressure ahead of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
According to TD Securities, the US labour market is set for a partial recovery in August, with the bank forecasting that "August NFP [will] rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k." The firm also expects limited movement in joblessness, noting that "the UE rate likely went sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks."
Investors will closely track the US NFP data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In TD’s view, a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed's attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes, suggesting that even a stronger print would not materially alter the current policy stance.
Meanwhile, traders have diminished Fed interest rate expectations after comments from Governor Christopher Waller on Thursday, in which he said that recent data shows signs of disinflation.
Analysts at Commerzbank also said that lingering uncertainty over the US rate outlook was “underscored yesterday by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller,” who, in their words, signalled that “a rate hike is by no means necessary.” They add that Waller “also confirmed what we have been arguing: next week’s inflation data are likely to be the key input for the Fed’s upcoming policy decision,” a shift in emphasis that, in their view, “further [reduces] the significance of today’s employment report.”
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.73, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at roughly $65.71. The metal is advancing within an uptrend structure, with price comfortably supported by this short-term EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 suggests moderate bullish momentum without yet signaling overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA near $65.71, where a break would expose the white metal to a deeper correction. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 is the key hurdle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold Technical Analysis: Testing the Critical $4,530 Resistance Level The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has reversed strongly above the $4,300 support. The price dropped slightly to $4,282 but failed to hold below this level and reversed strongly. This reversal formed bullish hammer candle.
After the rebound, the price reached the 200-day SMA and now awaits the employment data to define the next move. The price has been trading between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, which lie between the $4,250 and $4,530 levels. A break of either level will likely define the next move. A break above $4,530 will push the price towards the $4,800 area. But a break below $4,250 will push the price towards the $4,000 area.
Pound-Australian Dollar could remain under pressure if risk appetite stays firm, although a more hawkish Bailey could help Sterling recover. The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate hit a three-month low on Thursday as a risk-on mood swept markets.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.8797, having bounced off a low point of AU$1.8797.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.877752 (-0.22%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.352779 (+0.33%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) softened slightly during Thursday’s Asian trading session following downbeat domestic trade data.
Australia’s latest balance of trade showed a narrowing surplus in July. Both exports and imports contracted, with the former declining at a sharper pace.
However, the risk-sensitive ‘Aussie’ was cushioned by an upbeat market mood, limiting losses.
When the European session started, AUD was able to attract fresh support and firm against some of its weaker peers.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) was subdued on Thursday as markets digested the UK’s final services PMI.
Although growth in the UK’s vital services sector hit a four-month high in August, the final reading was revised slightly lower than the preliminary estimate. The PMI rose from 52.1 to 52.5, rather than 52.8. This weaker-than-expected result stifled Sterling’s upside potential.
Meanwhile, GBP investors seemed somewhat perturbed by the recent surge in UK government borrowing costs, after bond yields struck a 19-year high on Wednesday. This also limited the Pound’s appeal.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Central Bank Expectations to Drive Movement? Looking forward, on Friday GBP investors will likely focus on a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey. If Bailey maintains his cautious tone about the need for interest rate hikes, Sterling could stumble.
However, if the BoE chief starts to sound more concerned about the upside risks to inflation then the Pound could catch bids.
Meanwhile, Australian economic data is thin on the ground, potentially leaving the ‘Aussie’ to trade on global risk dynamics.
US economic data could play a big part in the market mood. If a weak non-farm payrolls report dampens Federal Reserve interest rate hike bets, an upbeat mood could lift AUD.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades broadly sideways against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.3790 on Friday after a strong Thursday, with investors awaiting the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
The USD/CAD fell sharply on Thursday as the US Dollar faced sharp selling pressure after Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Christopher Waller said recent data signals some cool-off in inflationary pressures. This led to a downward revision in the Fed’s interest rate expectations.
Waller flags data-dependent September Fed call, keeps Dollar bulls on alertFed’s Waller delivered a mildly less hawkish tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 6.1/10, slightly below the 6.3/10 established baseline, as the speech balanced recognition of “finally” emerging disinflation with a clear willingness to hike if August inflation runs hot. The key remark that Waller is inclined to hold rates steady at the September 15-16 meeting if data show continued progress, but would support a “small adjustment” higher if progress reverses, underscores a finely tuned reaction function that keeps a tightening bias alive while tempering immediate rate-hike expectations. Overall, the message is data-dependent and conditionally hawkish, supportive of the Dollar on upside inflation surprises but limiting aggressive repricing of near-term hikes.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 2.06 points to 125.38, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness relative to recent communications captured by the FXS Speechtracker. However, with the index still well above the neutral 100 mark, the Fed remains firmly in hawkish territory, indicating that markets should continue to price a meaningful risk of further tightening even as the tone edges incrementally toward patience.
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at the September meeting have diminished to 50% from 63.2% seen on Wednesday.
Looking ahead to the official labour market report, TD Securities says, "We expect August NFP to rebound to 95k after July posted a decline of 23k," and stresses that "risks to our payrolls forecasts appear hawkish, and we would not rule out an outsized positive surprise." On the jobless rate, the bank expects limited movement, noting that "the UE rate likely went sideways at 4.1% with balanced risks." TD Securities concludes that "a modestly hawkish employment report will reaffirm the Fed's attention on inflation, but it will be by itself unlikely to push the Committee towards hikes."
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3791, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3920. The pair’s failure to reclaim this medium-term gauge suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 38 sits in bearish territory but shy of oversold, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than exhaustion.
On the topside, the 100-day SMA at 1.3920 is the first meaningful resistance that bulls would need to clear to ease the current downside bias and open the way for a more sustained recovery. On the downside, the pair might enter a fresh downside leg if it fails to hold the August 21 low at 1.3732.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
USD/JPY started a major decline from the 160.40 zone. It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 159.70 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil prices could gain bullish momentum if it surpasses $92.65. EUR/USD is showing positive signs above the 1.1580 support. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar struggled to stay above 160.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY traded below 159.50 and 158.80 to enter a bearish zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 159.70. The bearish momentum gained strength after there was a close below 158.00, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
The pair even tested the 155.25 support zone. A low was formed at 155.29, and it is now consolidating losses. On the upside, it could face resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.39 swing high to the 155.29 low at 156.50.
The next major resistance might be 157.25. A close above 157.25 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 157.85 and the 50% Fib retracement level.
If there is another decline, the pair might find bids near 155.65. The first major support could be near 155.25. A downside break and close below 155.25 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 154.40.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil prices, the price gained bullish pace, and the bulls could now aim for a move toward the $95.00 level.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US nonfarm payrolls for August 2026 – Forecast 56K, versus -23K previous. US Unemployment Rate for August 2026 – Forecast 4.1%, versus 4.1% previous.
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Pound-Dollar could extend its recovery if US payrolls disappoint, although cautious comments from Bailey may limit Sterling’s upside. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged up on Thursday, after touching a 20-day low on Wednesday, although the recovery was limited.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3496, marginally up on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.352805 (+0.34%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.16315 (+0.40%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 155.82562 (-1.95%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) traded without a clear direction on Thursday as markets digested the UK’s final services PMI.
Although growth in the UK’s vital services sector reached a four-month high in August, the final reading was revised slightly lower than the preliminary estimate. The PMI rose from 52.1 to 52.5, rather than 52.8, which limited Sterling’s ability to make gains.
Meanwhile, GBP investors appeared unsettled by the recent surge in UK government borrowing costs, after gilt yields hit a 19-year high on Wednesday. Although bonds recovered on Thursday, yields remained sharply up on the week.
The US Dollar (USD) trended lower on Thursday as a risk-on mood swept markets, thereby dampening the appeal of the safe-haven ‘Greenback’.
Market sentiment improved as government bond yields around the world declined, easing concerns about how higher borrowing costs could choke off global economic growth.
In addition, a slight pullback in Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations weighed on the Dollar directly and contributed to the improving appetite for risk. Market odds for a hike this month dipped from 63% on Wednesday to 60% on Thursday, with this slight drop putting modest pressure on USD.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Non-Farm Payrolls in Focus Looking ahead to Friday, the Pound could come under scrutiny as investors assess a speech from Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey. Should Bailey continue to signal caution over the prospect of further interest rate hikes, Sterling may struggle to hold its ground.
On the other hand, a stronger emphasis on the upside risks to inflation could give the Pound a lift, particularly if Bailey points to a greater need for tighter monetary policy.
As for the US Dollar, USD will focus on the latest non-farm payrolls report. Weak jobs growth in August could dent the ‘Greenback’, particularly if it's seen as dampening Federal Reserve interest rate hike bets.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 527.70 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, broadly stable compared with the AED 528.15 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at AED 6,154.97 per tola from AED 6,160.24 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
527.70
10 Grams
5,276.98
Tola
6,154.97
Troy Ounce
16,413.26
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,970.02 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,979.27 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 104,624.50 per tola from PHP 104,732.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,970.02
10 Grams
89,700.14
Tola
104,624.50
Troy Ounce
278,998.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 539.44 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 540.01 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,291.96 per tola from SAR 6,298.62 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
539.44
10 Grams
5,394.04
Tola
6,291.96
Troy Ounce
16,779.33
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,873.91 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,915.05 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 465,086.70 per tola from PKR 465,561.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,873.91
10 Grams
398,744.50
Tola
465,086.70
Troy Ounce
1,240,211.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
