Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Pound-Dollar could rebound if US inflation cools, although weaker UK growth may keep Sterling vulnerable after last week's bond-market turmoil. Trade in the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was volatile last week amid turbulence in the global bond market.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3499. Down around 0.3% from the start of last week’s session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.351788 (+0.01%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.16111 (-0.02%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 156.14143 (-0.07%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) opened last week's session on strong footing, with the ‘Greenback’ benefiting from a bout of risk aversion as a sell-off in global bond markets spooked investors.

The turmoil in the bond market was driven by renewed concerns over inflation and fiscal sustainability, with surging oil prices adding to fears that central banks could face pressure to keep interest rates higher for longer.

However, the US Dollar began to relinquish its gains in the middle of the week as these fears eased and market risk appetite recovered.

Further losses followed on Thursday after dovish remarks from Federal Reserve policymaker Chris Waller, sparked a repricing of Fed rate hike expectations.

This was followed by a modest rebound in USD exchange rates at the end of the session as US non-farm payrolls smashed expectations in August.

The Pound (GBP) found itself on the defensive throughout much of last week's session, with the currency bearing the brunt of a widespread rout across international bond markets.

Yields on benchmark 10-year UK gilts broke past 5.25% to briefly trade at a 19-year high, whilst the 30-year yield struck its highest levels since 1997.

While part of a broader worldwide bond slump, the moves hit Sterling especially hard due to fears that spiralling debt servicing obligations will drastically eat into Chancellor John Healey's fiscal headroom just as he prepares to deliver his inaugural Autumn Budget.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Inflation in the Spotlight Turning to this week's session, the primary catalyst of movement for the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate will likely be the latest US consumer price index.

If August's data points to an easing of inflation, it could raise fresh questions about a Fed rate hike this month and pull the US dollar sharply lower.

Meanwhile, the focus for GBP investors will be on the UK's month-on-month GDP figures for July.

Should the data report a deceleration in growth, it's likely to place more pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy, pulling Sterling lower in the process.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

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Silver (XAG/USD) nudges lower on Monday, hitting session lows in the mid-$65.00s after a reversal from the $68.00 area. Precious metals are struggling on Monday, as US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures beat expectations last Friday, boosting hopes that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will hike rates next week, although the market awaits Friday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for confirmation.

US NFP figures showed a 162K increase in net employment in August, well above the 57K forecasted by market analysts, easing concerns about a softening labour market. The data prompted investors to ramp up bets on a Fed rate hike at the September 15-16 monetary policy meeting to a 58% chance, from around 50% before the release, according to data from the CME FedWatch Tool.

Analysts at ING point to Friday’s August CPI release as the main focus this week, where they see “month-on-month readings at 0.4% and 0.2% for headline and core (inflation) should be enough to sway the Fed towards a 25bp rate hike on 16 September,” a move they note is “just priced with a 58% probability at the moment.”

Technical Analysis: The neckline of a H&S formation lies around $63.30

XAG/USD trades at $65.79, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds well below the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). Friday's reversal from $68.00 looks like the second shoulder of a bearish Head & Shoulders (H&S) formation, while momentum indicators in the daily chart highlight growing bearish pressure.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near a neutral 52 zone, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in negative territory, which suggests that upside attempts could remain capped.

On the downside, the pair might find support at Friday's low near $64.75, although the key level is the September 2 low, at $63.30, which would confirm the H&S pattern and add pressure toward the August 6 low, near $61.00.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at a previous support area around $67.50, which held bulls on Friday. Further up, the mid-June highs around $71.60 and the 200-day SMA at $72.90 are likely to pose a significant challenge for bulls.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Danske Research Team reports EUR/USD trading in a narrow 1.1610–1.1620 range after quickly reversing losses from a stronger US jobs report. They highlight a thin data calendar with United States (US) markets closed, and note that attention will shift to the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where a rate hike is widely expected, and to US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures later in the week.

Pair steadies in tight trading band"In the euro area, retail sales fell by 0.6% m/m in July (cons: 0.2%), following a small increase in June. Fuel sales weighed on the headline figure, but sales excluding fuel also declined by 0.6% m/m, returning to levels seen in Q1."

"The positive growth recorded in July PMIs therefore does not appear to have been driven by private consumption. As consumers remain cautious, companies may find it harder to pass on higher energy costs, which could help explain why these pressures have not spilled over into core inflation."

"In Germany, AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt was broadly in line with expectations, winning 44% but falling short of an outright majority. The result confirms AfD's momentum, though mainstream parties rule out a coalition and the direct federal impact is limited."

"EUR/USD is relatively stable in a 1.1610-1.1620 range, as it quickly reversed the initial decline seen after the stronger US jobs report on Friday. "

"The data calendar is thin today as the US market is closed due to Labor Day. Later this week, focus turns to the ECB meeting on Thursday, where a hike is widely expected, and the US CPI figures on Friday."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades flat against the US Dollar (USD) at around 156.00 at the start of the week, but is close to its four-month low of 155.23. The pair is broadly firm due to JPY’s last week's outperformance, which came on the back of hawkish commentary from Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) board member Hajime Takata.

Yen surge raises questions over BoJ intervention and rate pathAnalysts at MUFG highlight that there were “significant moves in the FX market, with the Japanese yen in particular strengthening sharply from the 160 level on 2 Sep all the way down to as low as 155.30 overnight, a 5 big figure move.” They note that it came more broadly on the policy backdrop, flagging that “BoJ Board Member Takata – one of BOJ’s most hawkish members – gave a speech earlier this week leaving the door open for an outsized interest rate increase as well as back-to-back hikes,” reinforcing market speculation that the BoJ could countenance a more aggressive tightening path if conditions warrant.

MUFG also flagged a weak US Dollar as another trigger for significant weakness in the US Dollar, and ruled out the possibility of BoJ’s intervention. “It is not entirely clear whether the moves in USD/JPY were driven by FX intervention,” although “BoJ current account data for Wednesday do not suggest the moves were driven by intervention,” pointing instead to broader Dollar weakness and regional FX gains as key drivers, MUFG said.

Meanwhile, investors await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be published on Friday. The US inflation data is expected to have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/JPY trades at 155.95, keeping a bearish near-term bias as spot holds well below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.92. The distance to this SMA suggests the broader uptrend framework remains above price, with sellers in control for now.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 32 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet signaling a confirmed reversal.

On the topside, the 100-day SMA at 159.92 is the first meaningful resistance that bulls would need to reclaim to ease the current downside pressure and reopen a path toward higher levels. Looking down, the four-month low at 155.25 is the key support zone; below that, the pair could face a fresh downside leg.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bank of Japan FAQs The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.

A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 530.94 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 534.84 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,192.85 per tola from SAR 6,238.29 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

530.94

10 Grams

5,309.41

Tola

6,192.85

Troy Ounce

16,514.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 519.25 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 523.16 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to AED 6,056.43 per tola from AED 6,102.06 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

519.25

10 Grams

5,192.50

Tola

6,056.43

Troy Ounce

16,150.53

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 39,216.23 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,509.02 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to PKR 457,410.40 per tola from PKR 460,825.40 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

39,216.23

10 Grams

392,162.30

Tola

457,410.40

Troy Ounce

1,219,744.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold has kicked off a new week on a bearish footing, resuming the previous downside while battling the $4,400 level amid a United States (US) holiday-led light trading.

Gold is down, but doesn’t seem outGold is facing headwinds from the latest uptick in Oil prices, which continue to stoke inflationary concerns and flag the need for policy tightening globally.

The bright metal thrives on lower interest rates, and expectations of rate hikes by major global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), undermine non-yielding bullion.

This, in addition to Friday’s robust US labor market report, keeps Fed rate hike bets on the table for the September monetary policy meeting.

The headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by 162,000 in August, nearly triple the forecast of 56,000. The Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1%, while the Labor Force Participation Rate rebounded to 61.6% from 61.4% in July.

According to TD Securities, the latest data reinforce the view that the jobs backdrop remains resilient. They argue that, when the official figures are considered alongside “a private-sector that is looking up from a jobs perspective,” it “suggests that the labor market is in a good place, and possibly getting better.”

Markets continued to price in a roughly 57% chance that the Fed will hike rates this month following the NFP release, with much now depending on Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data.

However, the downside in Gold seems capped by a broadly stable US Dollar (USD), as buyers quickly faded the post-NFP spike amid concerns over rising US government debt and the aggressively hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) repricing, which has pushed the Japanese Yen (JPY) firmly higher at the expense of USD/JPY.

USD traders also seem to ignore the latest strikes exchanged between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz, as thin trading conditions and Fed expectations ahead of inflation data this week keep them on edge. The US markets are closed on Monday in observance of Labor Day.

Looking ahead, Gold remains vulnerable to renewed USD strength if US-Iran tensions escalate further. Thin market conditions could exaggerate Gold price moves.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,401.00, hovering between key moving averages and leaving the near-term bias broadly neutral. Spot gold holds above the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) near $4,247 and the 100-day SMA around $4,350, which together suggest underlying demand on dips, but price has slipped below the 21-day SMA at about $4,463 and remains well under the 200-day SMA near $4,536, indicating that recovery attempts are still capped by medium- and long-term trend barriers. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 points to balanced momentum, reinforcing the view that the market is consolidating rather than trending decisively.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA around $4,463, with a stronger cap at the 200-day SMA near $4,536, where sellers could reassert control if price extends higher. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA close to $4,350, ahead of the 50-day SMA near $4,247, and a break below this latter zone would expose a deeper corrective phase, while holding above it would keep the broader consolidation pattern intact.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold (XAU/USD) remains under some selling pressure for the second straight day on Monday, though it shows some resilience below the $4,400 mark during the Asian session. Moreover, the commodity holds above Friday's swing low, touched in reaction to the upbeat US monthly employment details, warranting some caution for bearish traders before positioning for any further losses.

The popularly known US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that the economy added 162K new jobs in August, surpassing consensus estimates for a reading of 56K by a wide margin. Other details revealed that the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1%, as expected, while annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in average hourly earnings, fell to 3.1% from 3.2%. This comes on top of inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices and lifted bets on an interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) later this month. The hawkish outlook, in turn, is seen acting as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD) and undermining the non-yielding Gold.

US labor backdrop seen as solid and improvingAccording to TD Securities, the latest data reinforces the view that the US labor market remains resilient. They argue that, when the official figures are assessed alongside a “private-sector that is looking up from a jobs perspective,” it “suggests that the labor market is in a good place, and possibly getting better.”

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said last Thursday that he was inclined to argue in favor of keeping rates steady if upcoming data confirmed inflation pressures were cooling. This holds back USD bulls from placing aggressive bets ahead of the latest US inflation figures, due later this week, which are seen as acting as a tailwind for the precious metal. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be published on Thursday and Friday, respectively, and will be looked at for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the Gold price.

In the meantime, the widening US-Iran confrontation in the Strait of Hormuz keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and underpins the safe-haven buck. US forces struck three Iranian oil tankers on Saturday, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted six vessels in retaliation. The tit-for-tat attacks have added to concerns over the security of shipping through the strategic waterway and intensified fears of a prolonged disruption to supplies from the Middle East, supporting oil prices and fueling inflation fears. This favors USD bulls, warranting caution before placing fresh bullish bets on the Gold price and positioning for any meaningful upside.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical AnalysisThe XAU/USD pair sits comfortably above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around $4,318 and the key 50% retracement of the July-August upswing, at roughly $4,324. This positioning suggests the broader uptrend remains intact, even as momentum indicators have cooled. In fact, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped into negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 51, hinting at a consolidative phase rather than outright exhaustion of the bullish structure.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement near $4,411, with a break above this pivot exposing the 23.6% retracement around $4,519 ahead of the recent cycle high region near $4,693. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50% retracement at $4,324, closely backed by the 200-day EMA near $4,318. A deeper pullback would look toward the 61.8% level at about $4,237 and the 78.6% retracement near $4,113, where buyers would be expected to reassert the broader bullish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

TL;DR: Thursday’s ECB hike to 2.50% is almost fully priced, but economists overwhelmingly expect it to be the last move while markets price roughly two more hikes within a year — and EUR/GBP is testing a major resistance cluster at 0.8610–0.8617 at exactly the moment that disagreement needs resolving.

The Hike Is Almost Certain. What Comes After It Is Not. Calling Thursday’s ECB meeting a non-event because a 25bp hike is already almost fully priced misses the part of the meeting that actually matters.

There’s little disagreement over the immediate decision. Markets assign roughly a 95% probability to a rate increase from 2.25% to 2.50%, while all 65 economists in the latest Reuters poll expect the same move. But beyond September, the consensus breaks apart sharply.

Economists overwhelmingly think Thursday will mark the end of the tightening campaign. Rates markets do not. Some 91% of economists expect the deposit rate to finish 2026 at 2.50%, while 78% see it still there through the middle of 2027. OIS pricing, by contrast, implies around 72bp of cumulative tightening over the coming 12 months — roughly three hikes in total, including the one expected this week.

That leaves close to two additional moves embedded in the curve beyond Thursday. So the real question isn’t whether the ECB hikes. The hike is priced. The rate path is not. And EUR/GBP has arrived at a particularly awkward place for that disagreement to be resolved.

EUR/GBP Is Testing More Than Just Another Resistance Level The pair has recovered from 0.8453 into a resistance zone where several independent technical methods converge.

On the daily chart, the broader cycle runs from the October 2024 base around 0.8221 through the rally to 0.8863, followed by a decline that developed through lower highs before stalling at 0.8453. That low wasn’t technically random. The 61.8% retracement of the entire 0.8221–0.8863 advance sits around 0.8466, almost exactly where the decline eventually found support. That strengthens the significance of 0.8453 as a potential medium-term turning point.

But proving a bottom exists is very different from proving a new uptrend has begun. EUR/GBP has now reached the 0.8610 area, and this is where the recovery faces its first serious test. Three separate forms of daily resistance converge there.

First is horizontal structure. EUR/GBP previously consolidated around 0.8610 on two occasions during the decline, giving the zone clear historical significance. Second is the 38.2% retracement of the 0.8863–0.8453 decline, which also comes in almost exactly at 0.8610.

The weekly chart raises the bar further. The 55-week EMA currently sits around 0.8617, leaving EUR/GBP facing a broader resistance cluster between roughly 0.8610 and 0.8617. That matters because the pair isn’t simply approaching a level where one technical method happens to suggest resistance — several different structures are saying much the same thing. It will probably take real fundamental conviction to clear them.

Momentum Has Already Started to Hesitate The higher-timeframe momentum picture is still constructive. Daily RSI is around 61, leaving considerable room before overbought territory, while daily MACD has crossed higher and is holding above zero. There’s no obvious daily exhaustion signal.

The four-hour chart, however, is beginning to tell a different story. EUR/GBP reached 0.8607 last week, effectively tagging the lower edge of the resistance cluster, but momentum failed to confirm the move. Four-hour MACD shows bearish divergence, as the latest price high wasn’t accompanied by a matching momentum peak. Four-hour RSI is only around the upper-50s.

The rally hasn’t stalled because EUR/GBP is already deeply overbought. It has stalled because momentum is fading exactly where substantial resistance should be expected. That makes the current setup genuinely two-sided. A rejection would fit the existing structure. But there’s still enough higher-timeframe momentum for a sufficiently strong catalyst to force a breakout. Thursday’s ECB projections could provide that catalyst.

Economists and Markets Are Making Different Bets The ECB announces its decision on Thursday, September 10, at 1215 GMT, followed by President Christine Lagarde’s press conference at 1245 GMT.

The expected hike itself is close to settled. The latest Reuters poll, conducted between August 31 and September 3, found all 65 economists expecting a 25bp increase to 2.50%. That conviction has risen steadily: 83% expected a September hike in the previous poll, compared with 72% before the July meeting, when the ECB ultimately held rates unchanged.

But the firm consensus around September masks a much bigger disagreement about what comes next. Economists largely see this as the second and final move of what would be the ECB’s shortest tightening campaign in 15 years. Markets are leaving the door much wider open.

OIS pricing late Sunday put Thursday’s hike probability at 94.8%, equivalent to around 23.7bp of tightening. Yet the curve discounts approximately 72.1bp over the next 12 months. October itself carries only around a 40% probability of another move, while December is somewhat higher at roughly 44%, consistent with the possibility that the ECB could skip October and wait for the next major projection round.

But the exact meeting doesn’t matter as much as the cumulative message. Investors are effectively saying September probably won’t be enough. Economists are saying it probably will. Thursday’s projections need to begin telling markets which side has the stronger case.

The June Forecasts Already Included the Iran Shock This is why simply seeing higher inflation forecasts on Thursday wouldn’t automatically be hawkish. The ECB’s June projections were already constructed after the Iran war had become a major economic shock.

On June 11, the ECB raised the deposit rate from 2.00% to 2.25%, the main refinancing rate from 2.15% to 2.40%, and the marginal lending rate from 2.40% to 2.65%. The central bank explicitly tied the decision to the conflict and its effects on commodity markets.

Its June staff projections put headline inflation at 3.0% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2.0% in 2028. Core inflation excluding energy and food was projected at 2.5%, 2.5%, and 2.2%. GDP growth was seen at 0.8%, 1.2%, and 1.5% over the same three years.

Compared with March, the direction was already stagflationary: inflation forecasts moved higher while growth was revised lower, with the ECB linking both changes to the war’s effects on energy prices, real incomes, and confidence. So Thursday isn’t about whether the ECB has suddenly discovered an energy shock. It’s about whether that shock is proving more persistent or more broad-based than the ECB assumed in June.

Headline Inflation Says One Thing. Core Inflation Says Another. The latest inflation data make that question unusually clean. Eurozone headline inflation accelerated from 2.9% in July to 3.3% in August, putting it above the ECB’s 3.0% full-year projection for 2026. But the increase was driven overwhelmingly by energy.

Underlying measures moved the other way. Core CPI eased from 2.5% to 2.4%, while services inflation slowed from 3.3% to 3.0%. That divergence is the heart of Thursday’s policy debate.

If headline inflation is rising because the conflict has pushed up energy prices, while core and services inflation continue to cool, the ECB is dealing primarily with a supply shock. Higher rates can’t produce more oil or reopen shipping routes. They matter only if those higher energy costs begin feeding into wages, services prices, and inflation expectations. So far, the latest data don’t clearly show that second-round process taking hold.

That’s why the economist consensus can simultaneously accept a September hike and reject the need for several more afterward. The ECB can respond to the immediate inflation risk without concluding that a prolonged tightening campaign is necessary.

The complication is that supply shocks don’t always stay clean. Persistent increases in visible fuel, diesel, and food costs can influence inflation expectations. If households and workers start building those costs into wage demands, and companies begin passing them into broader prices, the distinction between an energy shock and underlying inflation becomes much less comfortable. Thursday’s projections should show whether the ECB thinks Europe is moving closer to that point.

Three Forecast Tests Matter More Than the 25bp Hike 1. Headline Inflation: How Big Is the Revision? A higher 2026 headline inflation forecast would hardly be surprising after August inflation reached 3.3%. The more important question is what kind of revision the ECB makes.

A modest increase confined mainly to 2026 could amount to little more than technical acknowledgement of higher energy prices already visible in the data. That wouldn’t, by itself, justify another two hikes after September. A larger revision extending meaningfully into 2027 would carry more significance, implying the ECB sees the inflation shock lasting longer than anticipated in June.

2. Core Inflation: The Real Hawkish Test The core projections are much more important. In June, the ECB forecast core inflation at 2.5% in 2026, 2.5% in 2027, and 2.2% in 2028.

If that path is unchanged or revised slightly lower, the central bank would effectively be confirming that underlying inflation hasn’t materially deteriorated despite the increase in energy-driven headline CPI. That would strongly reinforce the “September and done” argument.

A meaningful upward revision would carry a completely different message. It would suggest policymakers see evidence — or at least a growing risk — that the supply shock is beginning to bleed into more persistent inflation dynamics. That’s the kind of surprise that could justify the extra tightening currently embedded in the market curve.

3. Growth: How Much Damage Is the Shock Doing? The June growth projections provide the other side of the equation. The ECB expected GDP growth of 0.8% in 2026, 1.2% in 2027, and 1.5% in 2028.

Private-sector consensus remains broadly aligned with the first two numbers, suggesting no obvious reason for a large revision based purely on the growth data available so far. But the intensifying conflict creates clear downside channels through energy costs, weaker household purchasing power, and confidence.

If the ECB cuts growth further while raising inflation, Thursday becomes more complicated rather than simply more hawkish. Higher inflation alongside weaker growth strengthens the policy trade-off. That’s why markets need to look beyond the headline forecast revision and ask what exactly is driving it.

Scenario One: The ECB Confirms This Is Still Mainly a Supply Shock The cleanest EUR-negative outcome would be straightforward. Headline inflation is revised modestly higher, but core inflation stays broadly unchanged or eases. Growth stays close to the June path or receives a moderate downgrade.

That would tell markets the ECB still sees much of the inflation deterioration as energy-driven rather than evidence of a broader inflation resurgence. It would also validate the dominant economist view that Thursday’s hike can be the last.

This is where the asymmetric market risk becomes important. September itself doesn’t need to be repriced lower — the 25bp increase can happen exactly as expected. The adjustment would come from the additional tightening priced beyond September. With around 72bp embedded over the next year, the curve has significant room to remove future hikes without challenging Thursday’s move at all.

That would be a genuinely EUR-negative outcome. For EUR/GBP, rejection from the 0.8610–0.8617 resistance cluster would then have both technical and fundamental backing. The more important bearish confirmation would come below 0.8545. A break there would strengthen the view that the rebound from 0.8453 was corrective rather than the start of a durable trend reversal, exposing 0.8453 again. A renewed break of that low would reopen the broader decline from 0.8863.

Scenario Two: The ECB Validates the Market’s Hawkish View The bullish EUR scenario requires more than an energy-driven headline revision. Core inflation would need to move higher as well, or the projections and Lagarde’s communication would need to show the ECB is becoming more concerned about second-round inflation pressure.

The press conference could be just as important as the forecasts here. The ECB has repeatedly emphasized that it isn’t pre-committing to a particular rate path and will decide meeting by meeting. If that language stays essentially intact while Lagarde makes little effort to push back against the roughly two additional hikes markets are pricing beyond September, investors could interpret the meeting as tacit confirmation that the tightening cycle still has room to run.

That would give EUR/GBP the kind of Euro-specific catalyst needed to challenge the current technical ceiling. A decisive break through 0.8610–0.8617 would be the first important signal that the decline from 0.8863 completed at 0.8453. The next immediate objective would be the upper boundary of the descending daily channel around 0.8644. A sustained break there would make the recovery from 0.8453 look increasingly like a genuine reversal rather than another rebound within the broader decline.

Scenario Three: The ECB Solves Nothing The third outcome may be the easiest to imagine and the hardest to trade. Headline inflation is revised higher. Growth is cut. Core inflation moves too little to settle whether the shock is genuinely spreading.

That would leave the ECB facing essentially the same two-sided problem it described in June: upside inflation risk and downside growth risk at the same time. In that environment, markets may struggle to decide whether the extra tightening already priced into the curve is justified.

EUR/GBP could reject again from 0.8610 without generating enough downside conviction to break 0.8545. And if that happens, the technical stalemate simply survives another day. Friday’s UK data could then become the tie-breaker.

Friday’s UK GDP Matters Most If the ECB Leaves a Draw The ONS releases July monthly GDP on Friday, September 11, alongside the trade balance, industrial and manufacturing production, construction output, and the NIESR monthly GDP tracker.

The broader UK growth picture is modest rather than collapsing. GDP growth slowed from 0.6% q/q in Q1 to 0.4% in Q2, while the IMF forecasts 1.0% growth for 2026 and the OECD 0.9%.

That gives Friday’s releases clear Sterling relevance. But they shouldn’t displace Thursday’s ECB meeting as the central driver of this setup. If the ECB convincingly validates further tightening, EUR/GBP may already be testing or breaking resistance before the UK numbers arrive. If the ECB instead reinforces the “one and done” view, the Euro could already be retreating from resistance, leaving UK data as a secondary confirmation or counterweight. Friday becomes most important under the mixed scenario, where Thursday fails to provide enough conviction to resolve either side of the technical range.

ActionForex’s Technical View on EUR/GBP: The Market Has Already Drawn Its Own Line EUR/GBP is approaching Thursday with an unusually clean combination of fundamental and technical uncertainty. The rate decision itself is almost known. The projections are not.

Economists overwhelmingly think 2.50% will mark the end of the ECB’s tightening campaign. Rates markets are effectively pricing another two moves beyond September. That disagreement is now meeting a technical structure that also demands resolution.

At 0.8610–0.8617, EUR/GBP faces horizontal resistance, a major Fibonacci retracement, the descending daily trendline, and the 55-week EMA. Four-hour momentum has already begun to fade around the zone, but the daily recovery hasn’t yet exhausted itself. The pair therefore needs conviction, not merely another expected rate hike.

If Thursday shows headline inflation is hotter but underlying inflation remains contained, the additional tightening embedded in the curve has room to unwind. Rejection from resistance would then gain a clear fundamental explanation, with 0.8545 becoming the critical downside trigger.

If the ECB lifts the core inflation path and leaves markets comfortable pricing further tightening, the Euro could finally gain enough support to break the resistance cluster. That would shift attention toward 0.8644 and strengthen the case that 0.8453 marked a more durable bottom.

And if the projections split the difference, Friday’s UK GDP may have to finish the job. Either way, dismissing Thursday because the hike is already priced misses the real trade.

The hike is priced. The rate path is not. And EUR/GBP is sitting exactly where that difference starts to matter.

Key Takeaways Thursday’s ECB hike to 2.50% is nearly certain, but economists (91% see 2.50% through year-end) and markets (72bp priced over 12 months) disagree sharply on what comes after it. Core inflation (2.4% in August) and services inflation (3.0%) are both cooling even as headline inflation rises to 3.3% on energy, making the core forecast path the real hawkish test. EUR/GBP faces a genuine resistance cluster at 0.8610-0.8617, where horizontal structure, a 38.2% retracement, and the 55-week EMA all converge. An unchanged or lower core inflation path would validate the “September and done” view and favor rejection toward 0.8545 and then 0.8453. A higher core inflation path, or a press conference that doesn’t push back on further tightening, would open a break toward 0.8644, with Friday’s UK GDP as the tie-breaker if Thursday leaves the question unresolved.

Key highlightsEUR/USD started a fresh increase from the 1.1565 support.It traded above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1605 on the 4-hour chart.EUR/USD technical analysisLooking at the 4-hour chart, the pair traded above a bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1605. There was a move above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the pair remained well above the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

The pair surpassed the 1.1620 resistance but failed near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1711 swing high to the 1.1566 low at 1.1640.

There was a minor pullback, but the pair remained well above 1.1565. If there is another decline, the pair might find bids near 1.1585. The first major support could be near 1.1565. A downside break and close below 1.1565 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 1.1440.

On the upside, the bears could be active near 1.1640. The next major resistance might be 1.1675. A close above 1.1675 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1710.

Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after opening at a bearish gap, remaining in negative territory and trading around $66.10 per troy ounce during Asian hours on Monday. Silver prices remain under pressure as stronger-than-expected United States (US) employment data fuels expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, August Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 162,000, significantly outperforming the 56,000 forecast. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%, and annual wage growth slowed less than anticipated to 3.1%. Following these figures, traders rapidly priced in tighter monetary policy, with the CME FedWatch tool indicating a 58.3% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate increase in September.

Hammack flags need for more Fed tightening as inflation stays too high Fed’s Hammack delivered a notably more hawkish message, with a 9.2/10 FXS Speechtracker score standing well above the 7.6/10 historical average, signaling a clear shift toward tighter policy rhetoric. The assertion that Fed policy is “not restrictive” and that inflation is “too high,” combined with local contacts indicating “now is time for Fed to hike,” underscores a bias toward additional rate increases and challenges any market expectation of an imminent pivot. This tone supports a stronger Dollar narrative as markets reprice the path of policy toward further tightening.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index rose by 1.14 points to 125.72, reinforcing that overall Fed communication remains firmly in hawkish territory according to the FXS Speechtracker. With the index well above the neutral 100 mark, the latest move suggests incremental but meaningful reinforcement of higher-for-longer rate expectations, a backdrop typically supportive for the Dollar and a headwind for risk-sensitive currencies.

Adding to Silver's headwinds, rising crude oil prices have stoked fears of rekindled inflationary pressures following a geopolitical escalation between the US and Iran over the weekend. The conflict intensified after the US targeted three Iranian tankers in response to missile attacks on its warships, leading Tehran to establish a new restricted zone around the Strait of Hormuz.

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.10. The near-term tone is neutral as price holds above the longer-term 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but sits just under the shorter-term nine-day EMA, hinting at consolidation after the recent advance. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.70 stays slightly above neutral, suggesting modest positive momentum without entering overbought conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the nine-day EMA around $66.33, and a clear break above this dynamic cap would be needed to revive a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day EMA near $64.91; a daily close below this level would expose a deeper corrective phase, while holding above it would keep the broader constructive structure intact.

XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

EUR/USD remains trapped in a tight range, but Thursday's ECB decision and US inflation data could provide the catalyst needed.

Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,395 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal extends the decline as robust US employment data boost US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets. 

The US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) climbed by 162K in August, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed on Friday. This figure followed July's increase of 21K and beat market expectations of 56K by a wide margin. The upbeat US jobs data boosted expectations that the US central bank could raise interest rates as soon as this month, denting non-yielding bullion's appeal.

“Gold stumbles badly as a huge headline print, and an overall strong report, makes a September rate hike much more likely unless we get a weak CPI report," independent analyst Tai Wong said.

Traders will take more cues from the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation reports later this week for further clues on the Fed's policy path.

Markets dialled up bets on a rate hike in September, pricing in a roughly 58.3% likelihood versus an even chance earlier in Friday’s session, according to the CME FedWatch tool. 

Furthermore, escalating tensions in the Middle East could stoke oil-driven inflation fears and contribute to the yellow metal’s downside.  Bloomberg reported on Sunday that Iran said that it targeted three oil tankers using an unauthorized route through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a number of US-linked ships, in retaliation for US attacks on Iranian tankers over the weekend. 

(This story was corrected on September 7 at 01:45 GMT to say, in the first paragraph, that Gold price (XAU/USD) tumbles to near $4,395 during the early Asian session on Monday, not European session.)

Gold rebound underpinned as Fed hike doubts growAccording to Commerzbank, the latest upswing in Gold prices “reflects growing doubts that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its September meeting after all.” The bank notes that these doubts have “recently been fueled primarily by comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller,” whose remarks have led markets to reassess the likelihood of further tightening and, in turn, helped underpin the metal’s rebound.

Technical Analysis: Gold price retains a mildly bullish bias above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias mildly bullish despite the recent pullback from higher highs. Price is now trading below the 20-day Bollinger mid-line, suggesting a consolidation phase within an overall uptrend, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 51 hints at neutral but stabilising momentum after overbought readings unwound.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 20-day Bollinger middle band near $4,465, with the upper Bollinger band around $4,675 acting as a farther cap if buyers regain control. On the downside, immediate support sits close to the latest close around $4,405, ahead of the 100-day SMA near $4,350; a deeper slide would expose the lower Bollinger band support near $4,260, where dip-buying interest could reappear.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

A hot Nonfarm Payrolls report saw traders reprice the potential for a September Fed hike, making this week’s CPI and PPI figures all the more important. Fed funds futures are now back above a 60% probability of a 25bp hike in two weeks, after 162k jobs were added compared with the 53k expected.

We also have a 30-year Treasury auction which may garner more attention than usual, given the bouts of market volatility whenever its yield pushes above 5.3%. The last time it did, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent doubled the size of long-end Treasury buybacks to provide greater liquidity support. The auction will therefore test whether investors are comfortable absorbing long-duration debt around current yields, or whether they demand an even higher premium.

Despite the renewed Fed risk, AUD/USD remains above 72c and within reach of its May high. That leaves US inflation, Treasury yields and broader risk appetite as the main near-term drivers for the Australian dollar.

View related analysis:

AU GDP Unlikely to Derail RBA Hike, AUD/USD Eyes ISM, NFP
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Faces RBA-Fed Rate Tug-of-War
Australian Dollar Price Action Setups: EUR/NZD, GBP/AUD, EUR/AUD
FX Futures Positioning: Dollar Rebound Meets Diverging Forex Bets | COT Report

Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders

Australia’s slowing GDP seems unlikely to derail bets of another RBA hike, with cash rate futures having fully priced in a 25bp move by November. The 1-year OIS has fully priced in two. So attention will shift to comments from RBA’s Hunter and Hausser on Tuesday to see if any policy clues are dropped. My guess is that they’ll retain a slightly hawkish tone without committing to much more.

Consumer and business confidence seems likely to show evidence of RBA-hike concerns. Beyond that, it seems appetite for risk and the US dollar’s direction via CPI and bond auction results could be the key driver for the Australian dollar this week.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
AUD/USD Correlation Analysis
US dollar sensitivity has snapped back: AUD/USD’s correlation with USDX is -0.92 over 10 days and -0.94 over three days, making USD direction the dominant near-term driver.
The yuan remains the most consistent positive relationship: CNH/USD correlations sit at 0.75–0.84 across 3, 10 and 20-day windows, reinforcing China/yuan sentiment as an important AUD/USD input.
Risk and commodity correlations have surged very recently: three-day correlations with the S&P 500 (0.99), gold (0.95), WTI (0.94) and copper (0.87) suggest AUD/USD is currently trading with a strong risk-on/commodity beta.
Short-term relationships remain fluid: several 20-day correlations are weak despite much stronger 3- and 10-day readings, so traders should favour the relationships currently strengthening rather than rely on longer-term averages.

Source: LSEG

AUD/USD Futures Positioning: COT Report
It is more of the same story where futures exposure is concerned for the Aussie. Traders have continued to increase their longs and shorts at a gradual pace, effectively keeping net-short exposure near similar levels to the week prior, albeit a touch less bearish.

This suggests traders continued to hedge their bets despite AUD/USD climbing above 72c to a 16-week high. The more reliable signal is therefore price action and rising total open interest, which now sits at a record high. This shows us that demand for Australian dollar exposure from all participants combined is rising alongside AUD/USD prices.

Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG

 
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.  

AUD/USD Options and Volatility Analysis (Risk Reversals, HVN Levels)
Implied volatility has continued to trend lower while prices have moved higher in recent weeks, while 1-month IV remains above 1-week IV to show a calm confidence in the bullish trend. A small bullish engulfing week also formed, although with the May high nearby, the rally may be maturing to the point that it needs a pause or pullback. The daily chart shows AUD/USD held up well to the strength of NFP on Friday by closing flat, although it formed a doji which shows some hesitation from bulls to push higher immediately.

The AU-US 2-year spread edged lower, though not at an alarming rate. Risk reversals also curled slightly higher last week to show a modest pickup in call demand relative to puts, so options traders are not panicking about a deep pullback.

Overall, AUD/USD still has the potential to rise towards the May high and eventually break above it. How US data lands this week could simply determine whether we see an initial pullback or a direct move towards it first.

Alt: AUD/USD rises as implied volatility falls, with risk reversals and the AU-US 2-year spread supporting a constructive Australian dollar outlook.

Source: ICE, TradingView

Australian Dollar Performance
Australian dollar performance table shows AUD gains across most major crosses, while AUD/JPY underperforms over five and 10 days.

Source: LSEG

Despite some analysts claiming it’s a relic of the past, a recent study found the gold-silver ratio remains a relevant technical indicator and is still useful for forecasting the silver market's trajectory.

The study was featured in the latest edition of the Silver Institute’s Silver News report, along with reports covering recent advances in silver technology and the silver market.

The gold-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold given the current spot prices of both metals. In other words, it tells you the price of gold in ounces of silver.

According to the study, the gold-silver ratio tends to revert to a mean of around 60-1.

In other words, when the gold-silver ratio rises well above its historical average, it signals that silver is underpriced relative to gold and there is a strong possibility that silver will go on a bull run to close that gap. Conversely, when the ratio drops significantly below 60-1, it will revert to the mean with a silver selloff or gold price surge.

The gold-silver ratio currently sits at around 67-1.

According to the Silver Institute, “The tendency for the gold-silver ratio cyclically to rise above and fall below its long-run equilibrium has not changed. Therefore, even if in future the outcomes will be skewed higher by the structural change supported by heavy official sector gold demand, dips well below equilibrium will also occur.”

Based on the data, when the gold-silver ratio rises roughly 20 percent above its mean, it will eventually move back, often very quickly overshooting the average in the process.

For instance, the gold-silver ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 after rising to over 80-1 during the money creation of the Great Recession in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. 

Then in 2020, the gold-silver ratio set a record of 123-1 as COVID hysteria gripped the world and then plunged to around 60-1 as central banks around the world cranked up the money-creation machine to cope with governments shutting down economies. 

According to the Silver Institute, the ratio of above-ground gold to silver bullion stocks acts in tandem with the ratio of gold-silver investment demand. 

“The report noted that recently the higher gold price has been powered by official-sector net sales or purchases that have pushed the gold-silver ratio above the long-run 60-1 ratio. Nonetheless, the ratio is still expected to revert to the mean of about 60 to 1.”

The Silver Institute also reported some interesting technological developments in the world of silver.

Silver has replaced silver in a process used to separate ethylene from propane. The old process carried the risk of an explosion. Researchers at Hanyang University in South Korea found that they can replace silver ions with metallic silver nanoparticles. This form of silver is more stable and less likely to react with chemicals such as acetylene, lowering the risk of explosion.Doctors have discovered that nanosilver can help to measure the correct medication dosages for individual patients. Nanosilver is often used in biological sensors because it can naturally boost the weak reflected light-wave signals coming from drug molecules. These signals have unique signatures that tell laser-powered readers how much and what kind of drug is present. Along with determining a drug’s best dosages and possible side effects, this approach has additional benefits. It replaces slow lab work because this light-based method is not only fast but can be done at a patient’s bedside.Applying Silver Diamine Fluoride (SDF) to children’s teeth has been shown to prevent cavities; however, it can leave dark stains. New research suggests that ‘nanosilver fluoride’ (NSF) might be just as effective without staining. According to a report in the journal BMC Oral Health, “Incorporating silver nanoparticles, NSF, retains the advantageous preventive; this method often leaves dark stains on youngsters’ teeth."Can you smell silver? No. Pure silver and sterling have no odor. However, if you sniff a silver object, the smell indicates whether it is pure. “If you smell metal, like copper, which has a distinct odor, then the item in question is not pure silver. Zinc, brass, and steel have their own particular smells. Even if an item has a thin layer of silver coating, the underlying metal will usually still give off a metallic scent, suggesting that it is not pure silver.”Engineers from the College of Design and Engineering at the National University of Singapore have developed technology that could lead to more flexible and durable wearable sensors. The soft, stretchable substrate repairs itself, firmly grips metal conductors, and can be remolded or broken down after use. In tests, silver films for electrodes that pick up heart and muscle signals adhered three times more strongly to their substrate than other substances used to conduct electricity.The sun may contain 55 percent more silver than astronomers previously believed. Of course, scientists cannot collect samples from the sun to measure the amount of silver it contains, but they can estimate the sun’s composition by studying the light waves it emits. Every element has a unique wavelength, but the researchers came up short on silver when it came to reconciling the higher amount they saw in stuff that fell from space. According to Swedish researchers using a supercomputer, the sun’s rays – unbeknownst to astronomers – distorted the specific light waves that told them how much silver was present.To receive free commentary and analysis on the gold and silver markets, click here to be added to the Money Metals news service.

Gold is attempting to stabilize after a sharp two-week decline reversed a large portion of the August advance. The pullback has brought XAU/USD back to an important inflection point, with the focus now on whether bulls can regain control and revive the broader recovery.

Suspected intervention helped drive USD/JPY sharply lower
September BOJ hike now fully priced
Payrolls revived September Fed hike expectations
CPI and PPI dominate this week’s US calendar.
USD/JPY moves remains tightly linked to US Treasury yields
USD/JPY suffered its largest weekly loss since late July as we entered September, hit by relatively dovish remarks from senior Fed officials and possible intervention from the Bank of Japan on behalf of the Japanese government.

However, an unusually strong August payrolls report in the United States on Friday managed to resuscitate not only rate hike pricing for the Fed’s meeting the week after next, but also stall what had been an abrupt move lower in the pair.

With a strong and strengthening relationship with gyrations in US bond yields, how the Fed rate outlook evolves this week will likely determine where USD/JPY finishes up on Friday.

Inflation Data Set to Drive Fed Pricing
Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI reports stand out as the known knowns most likely to impact USD/JPY this week.

Both will not only help shape expectations for what core PCE may print at later this month, but could go a long way to determining whether the Fed begins a new tightening cycle in September.

Source: TradingView

The timing is especially important given conflicting messages from senior Fed officials over the past week. Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, making it clear he remained uncomfortable with inflation and that the Fed still had work to do if price pressures failed to ease sufficiently. Governor Michael Barr also sounded relatively hawkish, reinforcing the sense that another hike remained firmly on the table.

But that messaging was subsequently tempered by New York Fed President John Williams, who said the case for a September hike “isn’t yet firm”, and Governor Christopher Waller, who said he would support keeping rates unchanged if August inflation continued to cool.

With the Fed now in blackout ahead of the September meeting, it will therefore leave the data to do the talking.

At the very least, the core figures probably need to print in line with expectations, if not a touch above, to really cement the case for a September hike. If that happens, you’d expect market pricing to follow, with the probability of a move currently sitting just shy of two in three.

The underlying detail will also matter, particularly in areas of the economy that are more heavily influenced by domestic factors, such as services inflation excluding housing and energy services.

If the core readings undershoot, market pricing for a September hike would likely ratchet lower, leaving December as the more likely candidate as the Fed and markets have more time to assess incoming economic data.

While history suggests the more volatile market reaction normally comes following CPI, PPI arrives first on this occasion, meaning it could provide markets with a strong steer on whether upside or downside inflation risks are prevalent heading into Friday.

Treasury Auctions Enter the Spotlight
Another area of note on the US calendar will be Treasury supply, with three, 10 and 30-year auctions scheduled across the week. They arrive at a time when there’s already plenty of unease around Fed credibility and the size of the US deficit.

US President Donald Trump’s threat on Friday to impose tariffs on countries if the Fed doesn’t cut rates could, at the margin, dissuade international investors from participating in those auctions.

We also get the Treasury’s monthly budget statement on Friday. If that delivers another ugly deficit print, as we saw in the July figures, it could place renewed upward pressure on Treasury yields.

Contrary to what you might normally expect from renewed fiscal concerns, given the strong positive relationship between USD/JPY and moves in US Treasury yields over recent weeks, any renewed move higher in yields from weak auction demand or another poor budget print could also help generate upside in the pair.

Source: Bloomberg

Japan Data Must Back the Hawkish Shift
On the Japanese side of the ledger, the impetus to sustain the strengthening in the yen seen last week will come down to key wages and upstream PPI data released during the week.

There’s been a distinct hawkish repricing of the Japanese rates outlook over the past couple of weeks, with a September hike now fully priced and an over 80% probability attached to a follow-up move in December.

Source: TradingView

It will be left to those reports, along with the detail in the final read of Q2 GDP released on Tuesday, to justify those expectations. If we see weakness relative to market expectations, it runs the risk of pushing BOJ policymakers back towards a more cautious stance on the cadence of policy tightening.

The detail in the GDP report will also be important. The initial release was soft beneath the headline, with weakness in household consumption especially prominent.

Even though the report now comes across as a little like ancient history, stronger underlying detail would still help build confidence in the virtuous cycle the BOJ wants to see between strengthening wage pressures, firmer demand and self-sustaining inflationary pressures. At the margin, that will be another important consideration for the rates outlook.

US Rates Link Tightens
Despite the hawkish repricing of the Japanese rates outlook, the correlation matrix below continues to point to a very strong linkage between USD/JPY and outright movements in US Treasury yields.

Source: TradingView

Over the past five days, the correlation with the US 2-year yield sits at 0.80, rising to 0.89 with the US 10-year and 0.76 with the 30-year. That compares with just 0.26 for the US-Japan 2-year yield spread and -0.46 for the 10-year spread over the same period.

So even though Japan’s rates outlook has undergone quite a major hawkish transition recently, the message from the matrix remains one where the US rates outlook, along with the implications further out the curve, continues to have a vice-like grip on movements in USD/JPY.

It’s also worth pointing out that we’re seeing an unusual positive correlation between USD/JPY and both VIX and MOVE, which is contrary to what you’d normally expect given the yen’s status as a funding currency for carry trades. At the same time, the inverse relationship with risk assets has persisted and strengthened, with the five-day correlation with S&P 500 futures sitting at -0.94.

What’s also notable is that the damage higher energy prices had been doing to the yen appears to have weakened. That relationship had been driven by concerns around Japan’s energy security and the deterioration in its terms of trade, yet the yen managed to strengthen last week even as energy prices continued to rise.

USD/JPY Respects the Range

Source: TradingView

While the question as to whether the BOJ was instructed to intervene last week remains unanswered, despite the violence of the bearish unwind, USD/JPY continues to be respectful of known technical levels, providing something akin to a blueprint for traders to focus on.

The immediate range in focus is 156.68 on the topside and 155.50 on the downside, with the former coinciding with the low set on August 7, while the latter is the top of a zone that has sparked some savage bounces over the course of this year.

While the overall message from the oscillators continues to favour selling into strength and downside breaks, with RSI (14) still sitting at 34 and MACD remaining beneath the signal line in negative territory, the rapid increase in downside momentum looks to have reversed slightly thanks to the strong payrolls print last Friday.

My view is therefore to place greater emphasis on price action rather than holding a specific directional bias in the near term. While we entered this range at rapid velocity from above, you can’t dismiss the fact we’ve seen some big bounces from this zone in the past.

On the topside, above 156.68, the levels to keep an eye on are 158, which has acted as both support and resistance for periods this year, and 159.50, another similar level above that.

Underneath, 155.50 down to 155 has been the support zone where bids have been lurking this year. A clean break beneath the lower rung of that zone could bring 154 into play, which has acted as both resistance and support for periods this year, along with 152.09, 151.50 and a more prominent support level at 151.

The USD/CHF registers modest gains of over 0.30% as the Greenback is boosted by a solid US Nonfarm Payrolls report, pushing the pair above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) to reach a daily high of 0.8126. At the time of writing, trades at 0.8098.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe USD/CHF trades just above the 50-day SMA but off daily highs, suggesting sellers have moved in to push the pair below 0.8100. Nevertheless, the overall trend remains upwards unless it falls below the August 20 swing low of 0.7949, which could exacerbate a move towards the 200-day SMA at 0.7932.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned bullish, but since it has pierced the 50-neutral level, USD/CHF is expected to trade sideways in the short term.

For a bullish resumption, USD/CHF needs to clear 0.8100. A move past that level can pave the way for a recovery towards 0.8150, with buyers setting their sights on 0.8200. Above the next area of interest is the yearly high at 0.8207.

On the downside, a decisive breakout below 0.8000 will expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7995, followed by the 0.7949 August 20 daily low. Beneath sits the 200-day SMA at 0.7932.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.

The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.

Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.

As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

OCBC’s Christopher Wong notes that USD/IDR has pulled back as a softer Dollar and lower UST yields support the Indonesian Rupiah. He highlights Bank Indonesia Governor Destry Damayanti’s emphasis on a stability-first approach, prioritizing Rupiah and macro stability while still supporting growth. Wong sees near-term support for IDR but flags elevated Oil prices and high global yields as constraints.

Stability-first stance supports Rupiah"Speaking at the Sarasehan 100 Ekonom Indonesia in Jakarta on Thursday, BI Governor Destry Damayanti reinforced the stability-first message she had set out earlier in the week, stressing that policy cannot be viewed solely through the domestic inflation lens given the “higher-for-longer” global rate environment and the need to keep Indonesian assets attractive to foreign investors."

"Her remarks were consistent with earlier signals of policy continuity, with rupiah and macro stability remaining key priorities even as BI continues to support growth through its broader policy mix."

"Together with the pullback in UST yields and softer USD, this should provide some near-term support to IDR, although elevated oil prices and still-high global yields remain constraints."

"Immediate support at 17620 (38.2% fibo retracement of 2026 low to high). If broken, opens way for next support at 17444 (50% fibo). Resistance at 17710 (100 DMA), 17800 levels (21 DMA)."

"USD/IDR closed at 17660. Momentum on daily chart is flat while RSI fell."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels
EUR/USD has defended pivotal support for a second consecutive week following the pullback from August highs.
Weekly momentum is attempting to stabilize in positive territory after reaching its strongest levels since May.
The September opening range is beginning to take shape as price remains caught within a broader multi-month consolidation.
The ECB rate decision and U.S. CPI / PPI headline next week’s event risk as markets reassess the relative policy outlook.
Resistance ~1.1632/33, 1.1746/75 (key), 1.1850- Support 1.1564/78 (key), 1.1472, ~1.14
EUR/USD heads into September at an important technical crossroads after the August recovery lost momentum near resistance. The larger technical picture remains finely balanced, with neither bulls nor bears able to establish control, leaving the Euro vulnerable to a larger directional move. With the ECB rate decision and U.S. CPI on tap next week, the stage is set for a critical stretch that could provide much-needed clarity heading into the September rate decision the following week. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that EUR/USD had rebounded off major support and that, “losses would need to be limited to the 1.1469 IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Look for a larger reaction near 1.1650 IF reached.” The rally extended more than 3.1% off the July low with a four-week advance registering a close high at 1.1679 pulling back.

A decline of more than 1.2% has held key support for the past two weeks at 1.1564/78, where the 38.2% retracement of the June advance converges on the January swing low. The focus heading into September is on a possible inflection off this pivotal zone as the monthly opening range begins to take shape just above. Note that the momentum trigger we highlighted last month as now broken with weekly RSI attempting to stabilize in positive territory after stretching the highest levels since May.

EUR/USD Weekly RSI

The 52-week and 200-day moving averages now converge at 1.1632/33, with key resistance unchanged at 1.1746/75. This region, defined by the yearly open, the 2025 high-week close, and the 2025 high close, has served as a major inflection zone since June of last year. The 75% parallel of the broader upslope is set to converge on this threshold over the next few weeks, further highlighting its technical significance. A breach / weekly close above would be needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend and threaten the next leg higher in price. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the yearly high-week close (HWC) and the April high at 1.1850 and a longer-dated extension at 1.1917.

A break below the monthly range low would threaten a deeper correction towards the 61.8% retracement at 1.1472 with the median-line of the multi-year upslope currently near ~1.14. Key weekly support remains unchanged at 1.1355/69- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance, the April high-week close and the 2026 low close. A break / weekly close below this zone would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the January downtrend.

   
       

Bottom line: EUR/USD is carving the September opening range just above pivotal support with major event risk on tap next week. We may still be in a massive multi-month consolidation pattern here so look for a breakout to offer guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 1.1472 IF Euro is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 1.1775 needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.

Today’s stronger-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report reinforced the resilience of the U.S. labor market, shifting the focus squarely back to inflation and the outlook for Fed policy. Next week brings significant event risk on both sides of EUR/USD, with the European Central Bank widely expected to raise rates on Thursday before the release of the August U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday.

With an ECB hike largely anticipated, the tone of the accompanying guidance could prove more important for the euro than the decision itself. In the U.S., another firm inflation reading following today’s strong employment report would strengthen the case for additional Fed tightening and could offer some support for a broader Dollar recovery. Conversely, a meaningful decline in the pace of price growth could keep give the Fed more latitude to hold rates into the close of the year. While this is not the Fed’ preferred gauge, it will be the final inflation read ahead of this month’s rate decision. Stay nimble into the releases and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

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--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats by about 0.80% on Friday, after registering losses of over 2% following the release of an upbeat US jobs report. This boosted the Greenback amid growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could raise rates if inflation data next week comes hotter than expected. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,437.

XAU/USD retreats as upbeat jobs data supports Dollar and September tightening risksNonfarm Payrolls in August crushed estimates of 56K, coming in at 162K, while July’s print was upward revised from -23K to 21K. At the same time, the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 4.1%. The data reassured Fed officials that if needed, they can raise rates without harming the labor market.

Last week, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said the jobs market was “consistent with full employment” in a speech in Jackson Hole, in which he leaned hawkish, placing inflation as the foremost mission.

On Thursday, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said the Fed isn't rushing to raise rates if inflation cools, but a weak data release next week favors a rate increase at the FOMC's meeting.

Money markets have priced in a 61% chance for a rate increase by the Fed at the September meeting, up from 54% a day ago, as shown by Prime Terminal.

US Treasury yields, namely the 10-year T-note, rose to a high of 4.81% before erasing post-NFP gains and are down to 4.768%. The Greenback also gave back some of its gains, but it remains in positive territory, as indicated by the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The DXY, which measures the performance of the US Dollar against six currencies, is up 0.13% at 99.13.

Following the US NFP release, traders await next week’s producer and consumer inflation reports. If both show persistent disinflation, a rate hike might not be necessary.

Next week, the US economic docket highlight will be the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), jobless claims data, the US Monthly Budget Statement and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold consolidates within 100- and 200-day SMAsPrice action shows Gold is poised to trade sideways, capped on the downside by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,354 and on the upside by the 200-day SMA at $4,534.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish, but in the short term it is trending downward toward the 50-neutral level, an indication that sellers are gaining momentum.

For a bearish continuation, XAU/USD must drop below the $4,400 mark, followed by the 100-day SMA. Below this area, the next target will be the day's low at $4,282.

For a bullish continuation, Gold must rise above $4,450. If buyers gain enough momentum, they could challenge $4,500 before targeting August’s monthly peak of $4,697.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.