The falling oil prices reduced inflation fears and put downward pressure on bond yields. This introduced a correction in the U.S. dollar index. These developments supported the rally in gold and silver prices on Monday.
But the key event for the week is the Federal Reserve meeting, which will be crucial in making the next move in gold and silver. If the Fed’s message is hawkish, then it could lead to higher Treasury yields and squeeze gold towards the $4 000 handle. Silver could also soften on the back of higher rates, dampening investment demand and growth prospects.
Conversely, a more dovish Fed outlook would help to provide a stronger recovery in both metals as the dollar will weaken. But the central bank gold buying could keep supporting gold while silver might do even better if lower yields coincide with rising industrial demand.
Gold Price Forecast: $4,200 Breakout Could Open the Door to $5,000 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating above the $4,000 area and trading towards $4,200. The resistance at $4,200 is defined by the descending trend line that is stretching from March 2026 highs.
A break above $4,200 will push the price towards $4,350 and a break above $4,350 will open the door for a rally towards the $5,000 area. This area is seen by the resistance of the descending broadening wedge pattern.
The Japanese yen weakened toward 164 against the U.S. dollar, its lowest level in around 40 years. Middle East tensions supported the dollar, while concerns about Japan’s finances and the large gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates continued to pressure the yen. Warnings of possible intervention had little effect.
Global stock markets fell as investors became more cautious about the large amounts being spent on artificial intelligence. A sharp rise in oil prices also hurt market sentiment. WTI crude moved higher as fighting in the Middle East continued and hopes for a ceasefire faded.
Higher oil prices increased concerns that inflation could rise again, making a Federal Reserve rate hike more possible. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged but said future increases were still possible. Economic data was limited and mostly close to expectations.
Markets This Week U.S. Stocks The Dow Jones fell for a third consecutive week as high WTI crude oil prices and tariff concerns encouraged further selling. The index remains in a short-term downtrend, and there may be more room to fall after the strong gains since June. Selling near the 10-day moving average may offer the best opportunities while the bearish trend continues. Resistance levels are at 52,500, 53,000, 53,500 and 54,000. Support is seen at 51,500, 51,000, 50,000, 49,500 and 49,000.
Japanese Stocks The Nikkei 225 ended the week lower as concerns about high valuations and losses in overseas equity markets weakened sentiment. The index continued to fall despite the weaker yen, which is a bearish sign. Selling into strength near the 10-day moving average remains the preferred strategy this week. Resistance is seen at 66,000, 67,000, 68,000, 69,000 and 70,000, while support is at 64,000, 62,000, 61,000, 60,000 and 59,000.
USD/JPY USD/JPY strengthened significantly last week, rising above 163 and testing 164. Higher WTI crude oil prices increased U.S. inflation concerns, supporting expectations that the interest-rate gap between the United States and Japan will remain wide. Japan’s government spending plans also raised concerns about increased government borrowing. For short-term traders, selling near resistance at 164 may offer the best opportunity early this week, ahead of the important Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings. Resistance is at 164.00 and 165.00, while support is seen at 162.00, 161.00, 160.50, 160.00, 159.00, 158.00, 157.00 and 156.00.
Gold Gold briefly fell below $4,000 early last week as higher WTI crude oil prices increased expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, which is negative for gold because it does not provide a yield. Support near last month’s low held, with central banks likely buying at lower levels, but the weekly recovery remained limited. Strong support may continue to protect the downside, but with U.S. interest rates likely to rise this year, large gains could be difficult. Range trading may therefore be the better short- and medium-term strategy. Resistance is at $4,150, $4,200, $4,300, $4,400 and $4,500, while support is at $3,950, $3,900, and $3,800.
Crude Oil WTI crude oil rose sharply for a second consecutive week after negotiations between the U.S. and Iran broke down. However, the significant rise in oil prices may encourage the U.S. to return to negotiations and reduce tensions to protect the economy. Looking for selling opportunities after any positive developments may therefore be the better strategy this week. Resistance is at $95, $100 and $105, while support is at $80.00, $75.00, $67.50, $65, and $60.
Bitcoin Bitcoin briefly rose above resistance at $65,000 early last week, but weaker risk appetite as stock markets fell pushed the market slightly lower by the close. The 10-day moving average now suggests that the recent uptrend has ended, so returning to a range-trading strategy may be the better approach in the short term. Resistance is at $65,000, $75,000, $80,000, $85,000, and $90,000, while support is at $60,000, $55,000 and $50,000.
This Week’s Focus Monday: Japan Coincident Indicator, U.S. Durable Goods Orders Tuesday: U.S. OPEC Meeting and CB Consumer Confidence Wednesday: Australia CPI, U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision Thursday: Australia Building Approvals, E.U. GDP and Unemployment Rate, U.K. BoE Interest Rate Decision, U.S. Core PCE Price Index and GDP Friday: Japan Tokyo Core CPI, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Australia PPI, U.K. Nationwide HPI, E.U. CPI, U.S. Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Markets will focus on central bank meetings this week. The Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but their comments could still cause large market moves. Markets now see an 82% chance of a U.S. rate rise in September, up from less than 53% a week ago. U.S. durable goods orders will also be important, while another rise in WTI crude oil could increase inflation worries and put pressure on stock markets.
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Celestia [TIA] has been on the decline over the past couple of weeks, as the market appears to be settling into a more neutral position.
TIA has posted a 25% decline on a year-to-date basis, with the past day reflecting that neutral state through a 0.2% gain as of the time of writing.
The market appears caught in a tight spot, with uncertainty building over the price’s next direction.
TIA faces more token unlocks TIA will undergo a major token unlock, channeling the released tokens toward research and development for the blockchain. A token unlock distributes new tokens into the market, bumping the asset’s supply and weighing on its price.
The unlock will release roughly $62,000 into the market in less than 24 hours, with another $62,000 following in 48 hours—an amount likely to move the market significantly.
Source: DeFiLlama Beyond that, Celestia’s total value locked (TVL) remains at $0, reflecting how weak the blockchain’s performance has been. The chain generated just $53 in fees over the past day, underscoring the point.
This combination of weakening on-chain performance and an expected volume surge puts Celestia at major risk.
Funding and capital flows Despite the weakening on-chain metrics and the scheduled token unlock, sentiment around TIA has turned net positive, with investors showing a growing pattern of long bets in the market.
Funding Rate data over the past day has spiked significantly, reaching roughly 0.0049% on the chart, according to the latest reading. A positive Funding Rate implies more bulls than bears in the market, measured by the scale of leveraged positions open on the asset.
Source: CoinGlass Adding to this outlook is a massive inflow of capital into the market, reinforcing the bullish case.
To put this into perspective, Open Interest surged 23% over the past 24 hours, reaching a high of $57.52 million within that period.
The rising Funding Rate, at a time when Open Interest has also surged, signals that the new inflow of capital is being channeled toward long positioning in the market.
Liquidation levels are tight Liquidation heatmap analysis, which identifies clusters of buy and sell orders on the chart, shows TIA sitting in a tight spot from a liquidity perspective.
The asset carries distributed sell orders above price, matched by an equal depth of distributed buy orders below price.
This means price could swing either way—the asset could move up or down, since both clusters exert the same pull on price, and liquidation clusters are known to act like magnets.
Source: CoinGlass However, given the market’s tight positioning, momentum will be the key determinant of where price skews. With bulls currently in control, there’s a high chance of an upswing in price from current levels over the short to near term.
Final Summary Celestia is releasing a large batch of new tokens into the market within the next two days, which could add selling pressure on the price. Traders taking bullish bets have been growing fast, suggesting many expect the price to rise in the near term.
Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 4,103 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Gold prices pushed higher as a sharp drop in oil prices eased market fears over inflation and interest rate hikes, following a weekend pause in military hostilities between the US and Iran.
Attention now shifts to a dense week of economic catalysts that could spark fresh market volatility. Investors face an unusually heavy lineup of central-bank decisions, including meetings by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ), alongside pivotal inflation and growth figures. Key releases such as US GDP, US core PCE inflation, and CPI reports from the Eurozone and Australia are expected to heavily influence global interest rate expectations.
The diplomatic landscape saw a reprieve after the US suspended its two-week bombing campaign against Iran late Friday. Tehran responded by holding back retaliatory strikes against Washington's Middle Eastern allies for a second consecutive night. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz noted that while American forces remain locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give room for potential negotiations.
Reuters corroborated this stance, quoting a senior Iranian official who stated that Tehran's policy remains "attack for attack"—meaning if US strikes halt, Iran will likewise suspend its military operations.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Meta Platforms (META -1.80%) closed Friday at $595.19, back under $600 and about 25% below its 52-week high of $796.25. At that price, the social media company trades at about 22 times earnings -- a lower multiple than the S&P 500's (^GSPC +0.05%) roughly 28.5. Meta reports second-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, July 29.
What the market is marking down, however, isn't the advertising business.
First-quarter revenue rose 33% year over year to $56.31 billion -- an acceleration from the 22% growth Meta posted for all of 2025. Ad impressions across its apps climbed 19%, average price per ad rose 12%, and family daily active people averaged 3.56 billion, up 4%.
A business losing ground does not put up numbers like that.
Image source: Getty Images.
The markdown is about the spending. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure range to $125 billion to $145 billion in April, and it spent $19.84 billion in the first quarter alone, up from an initial range of $115 billion to $135 billion. Investors have watched that range move up once already, and they appear to be pricing in the chance of it moving again.
Affording the bill is easier to establish than earning a return on it. Even after the first-quarter outlay, Meta generated $12.39 billion of free cash flow in the period and finished with $81.18 billion in cash and marketable securities. Its full-year total expense outlook of $162 billion to $169 billion was left unchanged, which suggests the spending increase is landing on the balance sheet instead of the income statement for now.
Wednesday should settle two things.
Today's Change
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Current Price
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Management guided second-quarter revenue to $58 billion to $61 billion. Against $47.52 billion in the same quarter last year, that range implies growth of 22% to 28%. That is a step down from the first quarter's 33%, though a deceleration already sitting in guidance is less dangerous than one that arrives as a surprise.
Revenue near the top of that range would suggest the advertising engine is still taking share of a growing market while the multiple sits below the index. A capital spending range that moves higher again would tell investors the payback period keeps stretching, which is the specific worry this drawdown has been about since April.
The average price per ad tends to move first. It rose 12% in the first quarter, and better targeting usually shows up there before it reaches the revenue total.
Ultimately, a business compounding revenue north of 20% at about 22 times earnings isn't priced for optimism. It's priced for the possibility that the money going into AI (artificial intelligence) infrastructure may not come back on any schedule investors can underwrite. That possibility is worth something. But the advertising numbers so far argue that a 25% discount may be overdone.
NVIDIA expands NVIDIA Agent Toolkit with re-architected NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo libraries and updated NVIDIA CUDA-X libraries, enabling software developers to build autonomous AI engineers with AI physics skills, accelerated solvers and quantum chemistry capabilities.NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Ultra leads among open models in agentic register-transfer level coding with the ACE-RTL agent from NVIDIA Research, helping enterprises build customizable AI agents for chip design and verification.Cadence, Siemens, Synopsys and other industry leaders are using NVIDIA accelerated computing and agentic AI technologies to advance autonomous engineering workflows across chip design, verification, packaging and systems. LONG BEACH, Calif., July 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- NVIDIA today announced an expansion of NVIDIA Agent Toolkit for engineering, now adding NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo™ and CUDA-X™ libraries as agent-ready tools and skills built to transform how the world designs and develops products.
Building the next generation of chips and systems requires teams to connect physics, simulation and performance analysis across increasingly complex design cycles. A new class of autonomous AI engineers is emerging to help take on that complexity — using specialized tools, running simulations and generating high-fidelity data to help scale chip design, verification, packaging and systems.
Now included in NVIDIA Agent Toolkit, NVIDIA has re-architected PhysicsNeMo into a set of agent-friendly libraries and added new and updated CUDA-X libraries to support complex engineering work. PhysicsNeMo provides AI physics skills for training and deploying models, while CUDA-X libraries bring accelerated solvers and quantum chemistry capabilities into agentic engineering workflows.
“Engineering has reached an inflection point. AI can now work with tools of physics, simulation and design,” said Timothy Costa, vice president and general manager of computational engineering at NVIDIA. “With NVIDIA Agent Toolkit, developers can build agentic engineers that reason using physics, run complex simulations and generate high-fidelity data to become a new engine for innovation in chip and system design.”
NVIDIA Agent Toolkit Adds AI Physics and Accelerated Computing Skills for Engineering Agents
NVIDIA Agent Toolkit helps developers build specialized engineering AI assistants connected to domain-specific tools, models and data. With the addition of NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo and CUDA-X libraries, these agents can now use AI physics skills, accelerated solvers and quantum chemistry capabilities for chip, system and industrial engineering.
Key capabilities include:
AI physics skills: NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo libraries help agents train and deploy customizable AI physics models for complex design and simulation tasks, turning model architectures into callable tools for engineering workflows.Iterative sparse solvers: New NVIDIA cuISS (CUDA Iterative Sparse Solvers) library accelerates large sparse linear systems in physics-based and engineering simulations. Designed for flexibility and performance on GPUs, its modern, composable solvers and preconditioners help developers build scalable, production simulation engines for agentic engineering workflows. Direct sparse solvers: NVIDIA cuDSS (CUDA Direct Sparse Solvers) accelerates large, complex sparse linear systems central to electronic design automation (EDA) and scientific simulation. It delivers high performance and numerical robustness for critical workloads like device, circuit and system simulations with scalability to multi-GPU and multi-node deployments in production environments.Quantum chemistry: NVIDIA cuEST (CUDA Electronic Structure Theory) brings high-accuracy quantum chemistry simulations to device-relevant scales, enabling density functional theory (DFT) and post-DFT methods to be integrated into production workflows at scale. cuEST brings production value to customers by supporting a wide range of modern functionals and making increasingly large ground-state and excited-state simulations manageable on NVIDIA GPUs. NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Ultra Open Model Advances Agentic Coding for Chip Design
Chip design depends on specialized register-transfer level (RTL) coding, which demands high accuracy, deep domain expertise and flexibility over deployment.
With ACE-RTL — an agent for designing hardware from NVIDIA Research — NVIDIA Nemotron™ 3 Ultra leads among open models in agentic RTL coding on the comprehensive verilog design problems benchmark across RTL coding tasks.
This represents how Nemotron 3 Ultra offers industry-leading accuracy and efficiency and can be post-trained on proprietary data — deployed locally or on premises — giving enterprises greater control, customization and data privacy as they build AI agents for chip design.
Developers can get started with Nemotron 3 Ultra using Cadence’s harness; Synopsys’ fully autonomous, long-running agents for design verification and analog and mixed-signal workflows; Siemens’ Questa One smart verification agentic toolkit; as well as on Hugging Face.
Software Leaders Build Autonomous AI Engineers With NVIDIA
Industrial engineering leaders are already using the new and expanded NVIDIA Agent Toolkit components to develop autonomous AI engineers.
Cadence is using NVIDIA Nemotron, accelerated computing and CUDA-X libraries with the recently launched Cadence AuraStack AI Super Agent and the Cadence Millennium M2000 platform to autonomously drive advanced packaging and printed circuit board (PCB) design from exploration through signoff, delivering up to 20x faster multiphysics performance. This joins Cadence’s complete portfolio of silicon design super agents which collectively cover the chip design workflow end to end, from architecture through manufacturing signoff.
In addition, the collaboration extends from agentic design to the underlying compute as Cadence’s portfolio of EDA and system design automation tools, including Cadence Jasper, a formal verification platform, is being optimized for the NVIDIA Vera CPU to help engineering teams validate advanced chip designs faster.
Synopsys is using the NVIDIA Agent Toolkit, NVIDIA NIM™ microservices, Nemotron open models, the NVIDIA NeMo™ Gym library and NVIDIA NemoClaw™ blueprints with Synopsys AgentEngineer to build secure, accelerated agentic workflows across chip and system design. Leveraging Ansys Icepak, Synopsys’ agentic workflow autonomously executes simulation setup, and pre- and post-processing for complex GPU cooling design optimization. Synopsys is developing NVIDIA cuISS use cases to accelerate simulation workloads.
The collaboration extends from agentic workflows to the underlying compute platform as Synopsys VCS, a high-performance functional verification solution used to simulate and validate complex chip designs before fabrication, is being optimized for the NVIDIA Vera CPU to help improve verification throughput.
Siemens is using NVIDIA NeMo Gym, Nemotron open models and CUDA-X libraries with the Siemens Fuse EDA AI Agent to orchestrate multi-tool and multi-agent workflows across semiconductor, 3D-IC, PCB and system design, from conception through signoff. In Siemens Solido Characterization Suite, these agentic AI workflows are delivering more than 10x faster library characterization while reducing token costs by more than 10x.
Samsung is using NVIDIA cuLitho and CUDA-X libraries to achieve up to 20x greater performance for computational lithography and applying NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo to perform chip-scale thermal-stress analysis with numerical solver-level accuracy across domains containing up to 10 billion cells.
ChipAgents is using NVIDIA Agent Toolkit to build domain-specific AI agents for chip design and verification. The team is fine-tuning NVIDIA Nemotron models for complex end-to-end semiconductor design and verification workflows including debug, formal verification, coverage and more.
Silvaco is using NVIDIA accelerated computing to scale high-accuracy 3D optical simulation in the Silvaco Victory Device. Running on 32 NVIDIA GPUs interconnected by NVIDIA NVLink™ technology, it completed a 3.2-billion-mesh-node photonic edge coupler simulation in under four hours, a workload beyond the practical limits of CPU-based simulation.
Keysight is harnessing NVIDIA cuDSS to accelerate electromagnetic simulations by up to 10x, while Samsung, Synopsys and TSMC are integrating NVIDIA cuEST into its GPU-accelerated pipeline to achieve up to a 50x speedup for key quantum-chemistry workloads.
Learn more by joining NVIDIA at DAC.
About NVIDIA
NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the world leader in AI and accelerated computing.
For further information, contact:
Paris Fox
Corporate Communications
NVIDIA Corporation [email protected]
Certain statements in this press release including, but not limited to, statements as to: With NVIDIA Agent Toolkit, developers being able to build agentic engineers that reason using physics, run complex simulations and generate high-fidelity data to become a new engine for innovation in chip and system design; expectations with respect to growth, performance, availability, and benefits of NVIDIA’s products, services and technologies, and related trends and drivers; expectations with respect to NVIDIA’s third party arrangements, including with its collaborators and partners; expectations with respect to technology developments, and related trends and drivers; projected market growth and trends; expectations with respect to AI and related industries; and other statements that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, which are subject to the “safe harbor” created by those sections based on management’s beliefs and assumptions and on information currently available to management and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause results to be materially different than expectations. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially include: global economic and political conditions; NVIDIA’s reliance on third parties to manufacture, assemble, package and test NVIDIA’s products; the impact of technological development and competition; development of new products and technologies or enhancements to NVIDIA’s existing products and technologies; market acceptance of NVIDIA’s products or NVIDIA’s partners’ products; design, manufacturing or software defects; changes in consumer preferences or demands; changes in industry standards and interfaces; unexpected loss of performance of NVIDIA’s products or technologies when integrated into systems; NVIDIA’s ability to realize the potential benefits of business investments or acquisitions; and changes in applicable laws and regulations, as well as other factors detailed from time to time in the most recent reports NVIDIA files with the Securities and Exchange Commission, or SEC, including, but not limited to, its Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q. Copies of reports filed with the SEC are posted on the company’s website and are available from NVIDIA without charge. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and speak only as of the date hereof, and, except as required by law, NVIDIA disclaims any obligation to update these forward-looking statements to reflect future events or circumstances.
Many of the products and features described herein remain in various stages and will be offered on a when-and-if-available basis. The statements above are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as a commitment, promise, or legal obligation, and the development, release, and timing of any features or functionalities described for our products is subject to change and remains at the sole discretion of NVIDIA. NVIDIA will have no liability for failure to deliver or delay in the delivery of any of the products, features or functions set forth herein.
A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/8cc7fd5d-80e0-4960-9176-41e04d3909a0
NVIDIA Agent Toolkit With NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo and CUDA-X Libraries NVIDIA today announced an expansion of NVIDIA Agent Toolkit for engineering, now adding NVIDIA Physi...
SANTA CLARA, Calif., July 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Silvaco Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: SVCO) (“Silvaco”), a leading provider of TCAD, EDA software, and semiconductor IP solutions, and NVIDIA, a global leader in accelerated computing and AI, today announced a collaboration to advance next-generation digital twins for semiconductor design and manufacturing using NVIDIA accelerated computing and AI.
Silvaco is combining decades of physics-based modeling expertise with NVIDIA’s accelerated computing, CUDA-X™ libraries, PhysicsNeMo, Omniverse libraries, and Nemotron open models to help customers build, train, and deploy high-fidelity digital twins capable of predicting, optimizing, and validating complex semiconductor systems with unprecedented speed and accuracy.
Together, Silvaco’s physics-based simulation portfolio and NVIDIA accelerated computing and AI will help customers design, simulate and optimize increasingly complex semiconductor technologies.
Partnership Focus Areas
GPU-Accelerated Physics Simulation
Silvaco intends to use NVIDIA accelerated computing and CUDA-X™ libraries to accelerate its semiconductor device, process, photonics, and multiphysics simulation solutions, enabling dramatic reductions in simulation runtimes and increased design productivity. As an early proof point, Silvaco completed a fully scaled 3D FDTD simulation of a photonic edge coupler with 3.2 billion mesh nodes on 32 NVIDIA GPUs connected with NVLink in under four hours. The workload did not converge on CPUs, and the result achieved less than 0.15 dB difference between measurement and simulation.
AI-Driven Surrogate Modeling
Silvaco intends to leverage NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo to develop customizable AI surrogate models that complement high-fidelity physics simulation and accelerate exploration of design alternatives.
Digital Twin Visualization and Collaboration
Silvaco plans to connect its digital twin environment with NVIDIA Omniverse libraries™ and NVIDIA Cosmos™ to deliver collaborative, real-time visualization and simulation environments spanning semiconductor fabs, manufacturing systems, robotics platforms and infrastructure applications to provide interactive visualization and collaboration across semiconductor design and manufacturing workflows.
Scaled Engineering Workflows
Silvaco aims to establish cloud-native workflows that support design, testing, and validation across distributed teams and compute environments.
Delivering Measurable Customer Value
By combining the technologies, Silvaco expects to help customers:
Reduce Simulation Cycles from Weeks to Days
GPU-accelerated simulation and AI-driven modeling will enable faster design iterations and reduced time-to-market.Improve Accuracy and Insight
High-fidelity digital twins will provide deeper visibility into system performance, enabling more precise validation and optimization.Scale Engineering and Collaboration
Cloud-based visualization and AI-driven workflows will enable global teams to collaborate more efficiently and execute complex simulations at scale.
“The convergence of physics-based simulation, accelerated computing, and artificial intelligence is transforming design and manufacturing,” said Walden C. Rhines, President and Chief Executive Officer of Silvaco. “By combining Silvaco’s deep expertise in semiconductor and multiphysics digital twins with NVIDIA’s industry-leading computing and AI platforms, we can help customers model increasingly complex systems with greater speed, fidelity, and confidence. Together, we are positioning the industry for a future where AI-powered digital twins can fundamentally transform how semiconductor technologies are designed, validated, and optimized.”
“Digital twins are becoming essential tools for engineering and manufacturing innovation,” said Da Yang, senior director of product, semiconductor and EDA at NVIDIA. “By using NVIDIA AI, open models, libraries and accelerated computing, Silvaco is connecting high-fidelity simulation, helping customers move faster from modeling to insight across semiconductor design and manufacturing.”
The combination of Silvaco and NVIDIA solutions is expected to enable advanced digital twin applications including:
Semiconductor process, device, packaging, and photonics simulationAI-assisted development of next-generation chips and advanced nodesFactory optimization and predictive manufacturing
This collaboration brings together Silvaco’s semiconductor modeling expertise with NVIDIA accelerated computing and AI to advance high-fidelity simulation, AI surrogate models, and digital twins across semiconductor design and manufacturing.
About Silvaco
Silvaco is a provider of AI-enabled TCAD and EDA solutions, and SIP solutions that enable semiconductor design and digital twin modeling through AI software and innovation. Silvaco’s solutions are used for semiconductor and photonics processes, devices, and systems development across display, power devices, automotive, memory, high-performance compute, foundries, photonics, internet of things, and 5G/6G mobile markets for complex SoC design. Silvaco is headquartered in Santa Clara, California, and has a global presence with offices located in North America, Europe, Brazil, China, Egypt, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Learn more at silvaco.com.
Safe Harbor Statement
This press release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended, that are intended to be covered by the “safe harbor” provisions of those sections. Forward-looking statements give our current expectations and projections relating to our financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and business and can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by the use of words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue” and similar expressions, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. These statements are based on the Company’s current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those described in the Company’s most recent Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
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New long-running, fully agentic workflows spanning EDA to CAE multiply engineering productivity
Key Highlights
Synopsys unveils a fully autonomous long-running design verification agent that orchestrates the entire chip verification cycle delivering up to 50X faster time-to-validated RTL while achieving 20% additional coverage improvement Demonstrating Synopsys' first fully autonomous computer-aided engineering (CAE) workflow for thermal management and electronic device cooling capable of autonomously executing set-up, pre-processing, and post-processing in a fraction of the time required for manual approaches Expanded portfolio of more than 20 GPU-accelerated Synopsys EDA and multiphysics products, including 18X speedup of PrimeSim™ SPICE simulations , /PRNewswire/ -- Today at the 2026 DAC Chips to Systems Conference, Synopsys, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNPS) announced advancements to agentic AI for engineering in collaboration with NVIDIA. Synopsys has developed fully autonomous, long-running agentic capabilities for chip design and electronics system design enabled with NVIDIA Nemotron on NVIDIA's accelerated computing platform and secured by the NVIDIA OpenShell runtime. Demonstrated at DAC for the first time, Synopsys' capabilities promise to be a force multiplier for R&D teams beyond task agents, transforming time-consuming chip verification and thermal simulation into automated insight delivery, engineering productivity, and system performance improvement engines.
"AI is fundamentally reshaping engineering, and Synopsys is at the forefront of this transformation, enabling fully autonomous agents across every stage of silicon and systems development," said Ravi Subramanian, Chief Product Management Officer at Synopsys. "Our close collaboration with NVIDIA continues to accelerate the development of next-generation AI technologies by combining Synopsys' domain expertise spanning EDA and CAE with NVIDIA's advanced AI infrastructure and technologies. Together, we are enabling a new class of autonomous engineering workflows that elevate productivity, unlock deeper insights, and help customers innovate faster."
"The future of engineering is agentic, where AI agents reason, plan, execute complex workflows and verify their own work across the entire product development lifecycle," said Tim Costa, Vice President and General Manager for Computational Engineering at NVIDIA. "Synopsys is using NVIDIA AI tools and accelerated computing to build simulation and AI physics agents that help teams close verification, automate thermal analysis and compress development cycles from weeks to hours."
Introducing Synopsys' Fully Autonomous Design Verification (DV) Workflow
Coverage closure has been among the most significant bottlenecks in the DV process. Despite assistive tools, engineering teams spend significant labor and compute resources on incremental improvements. The companies are evolving the DV approach from tool-assisted to a goal-driven workflow that autonomously pursues coverage closure and traces root failure causes throughout development.
The solution, built on Synopsys' agentic AI platform and powered by Synopsys AgentEngineer™ technology and NVIDIA's agentic AI infrastructure — including NVIDIA Agent Toolkit, NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Ultra open model, and OpenShell runtime — features a fully autonomous, long-running orchestrator agent. The orchestrator agent deconstructs DV goals from specification, design, test repository, and user inputs, and orchestrates specialized agents and tools in a closed loop workflow spanning the full chip verification lifecycle, from test plan generation to coverage closure and advanced debug. Demonstrated at DAC, the end-to-end fully autonomous verification closure agentic flow compresses weeks of manual labor into hours of agentic execution that achieves up to 50X faster time-to-validated RTL with an additional 20% improvement in coverage.1
Autonomous Analog & Mixed-Signal (AMS) Workflows
AI-powered Custom Compiler™ Layout Synthesis (CCLS) is laying the foundation for autonomous analog and mixed-signal (AMS) design by automating layout generation, optimization, and design-layout convergence. Building on these capabilities, Synopsys AgentEngineer™ technology orchestrates multi-step analog flow spanning design creation, SPICE simulation, implementation, and verification. Engineers define design intent and performance goals in natural language, while autonomous agents execute and optimize the workflow, accelerating design closure and improving productivity by up to 3X.2
Delivering Autonomous Engineering Agents Across Design and Simulation
Synopsys developed a fully autonomous agentic CAE workflow for electronics thermal analysis using NVIDIA Agent Toolkit and NVIDIA CUDA-X libraries. Built with Ansys Icepak® electronics cooling simulation software — now part of the Synopsys portfolio — and open-source PyAEDT libraries, the agentic workflow autonomously executes simulation set-up, pre- and post-processing in a fraction of the time required for traditional approaches.
Extending the Value of GPU Acceleration to More Engineering Workflows
Synopsys continues to accelerate innovation with the industry's broadest portfolio of more than 20 GPU-enabled EDA and multiphysics products, unlocking deeper analysis and faster time-to-market across the design flow — from physical verification to photonics simulation. Recent developments include:
PrimeSim™ SPICE circuit simulations perform up to 18X faster leveraging NVIDIA GPUs.3 Synopsys QuantumATK® accelerates next-generation semiconductor material innovation by up to 50X for Gaussian-basis quantum chemistry simulations enabled by cuEST and up to 200x faster machine-learned force field simulations using NVIDIA Blackwell GPU infrastructure. Ansys Lumerical FDTD™ 3D electromagnetic simulation software achieved a 10X speedup on NVIDIA GPUs compared to CPUs when used within Synopsys' Multiphysics Fusion™ solution for analog and photonic design. In addition, Synopsys continues its deep collaboration with NVIDIA leveraging CUDA-X libraries to accelerate its solvers, including cuLitho, cuDSS, cuEST, and use cases in development with the newly announced cuISS library. Availability
Customers are currently evaluating Synopsys' agentic EDA and CAE capabilities with availability planned for the second half of 2026.
Follow Synopsys online for updates via our Newsroom, on LinkedIn, and on X.
Join Synopsys at the 2026 DAC Chips to Systems Conference
This week at DAC, Synopsys is showcasing AI-powered engineering solutions that enable customers to rapidly design from silicon to system with increased quality, efficiency, precision, and scale. Attendees can visit Synopsys' booth #631 for demonstrations of newly announced autonomous workflows. For a complete list of Synopsys sessions and activities at DAC 2026, visit the Synopsys DAC 2026 event page.
1 Compared to traditional verification workflows not powered by AgentEngineer technology.
2 AMS workflow leverages CCLS which delivers 3X gains in productivity.
3 PrimeSim SPICE delivered approximately 18X faster overall wall-clock time by introducing NVIDIA GPUs compared to CPU-only workloads.
About Synopsys
Synopsys, Inc. (Nasdaq: SNPS) is the leader in engineering solutions from silicon to systems, enabling customers to rapidly innovate AI-powered products. We deliver industry-leading silicon design, IP, simulation and analysis solutions, and design services. We partner closely with our customers across a wide range of industries to maximize their R&D capability and productivity, powering innovation today that ignites the ingenuity of tomorrow. Learn more at www.synopsys.com.
Forward-Looking Statements
This press release contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results, time frames, or achievements to differ materially. Information on potential risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results is included in filings we make with the SEC from time to time, including in the sections entitled "Risk Factors" in our latest Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q.
Media Contacts
Kelli Wheeler, [email protected]
Pete Smith, [email protected]
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On Monday, the global DRAM industry gets a fourth publicly traded heavyweight. ChangXin Memory Technologies, the Chinese DRAM maker known as CXMT, begins trading on Shanghai's Star Market after an initial public offering (IPO) that raised about $8.5 billion and valued the company at roughly $85 billion. It is the largest listing ever by a Chinese semiconductor company on a mainland exchange.
For shareholders of Micron Technology (MU -7.24%), the world's third-largest DRAM producer, the debut lands at a sensitive moment. Memory stocks have swung hard this month between fears that the AI (artificial intelligence) memory boom is peaking and evidence that it isn't. Micron itself fell about 7% on Friday. Now the industry's fastest-growing challenger is about to have a public currency and a war chest.
Here's what CXMT's arrival actually changes for Micron -- and what it doesn't.
Image source: Micron.
The challenger is moving faster than expected CXMT is no longer a fringe player. The company's share of the global DRAM market reached 7.6% in the first quarter of 2026, up from 4.7% just one quarter earlier, according to Omdia figures reported by the Seoul Economic Daily. That leap came as CXMT absorbed demand the three incumbents couldn't supply during the AI-driven memory shortage. Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron held roughly 39%, 29%, and 22% of the market, respectively, in the same period.
However, the composition of CXMT's business matters as much as its growth. More than 98% of the company's revenue last year came from conventional DRAM, the commodity chips that go into servers and phones. It has effectively no presence in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), the premium product stacked next to AI accelerators, where the three incumbents retain a technological edge measured in years.
That distinction is the whole story for Micron investors. The memory boom's richest profits are concentrated exactly where CXMT isn't.
Micron's boom doesn't run through CXMT's market -- yet Micron's most recent quarter shows what the high end of this cycle looks like. Revenue for the fiscal third quarter of 2026 (the period ended May 28, 2026) reached $41.5 billion, more than quadrupling year over year from $9.3 billion. Net income was $28.2 billion. Operating cash flow hit $25.4 billion, up from $11.9 billion just one quarter earlier. And for the fiscal fourth quarter, management's forecast points to revenue of $50 billion, give or take $1 billion, with a gross margin of about 86%.
Numbers like those come from selling advanced memory into a shortage, at prices commodity producers can't touch. CXMT's IPO likely doesn't change that math for this quarter, or for next year.
What it changes is the supply picture further out. CXMT is earmarking its proceeds for production line upgrades and next-generation DRAM development. And the roughly $8.5 billion raised, which could approach $10 billion if the overallotment is exercised, is nearly double what the company had originally planned to invest.
Memory prices move on supply, and supply is exactly what CXMT is now funded to add. Memory booms have typically ended the same way: capacity built during the good years arriving all at once. Monday's listing doesn't guarantee a repeat. But it funds one.
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Micron's own history shows how violent those turns can be. The company posted a $5.8 billion net loss as recently as fiscal 2023, when the last downturn crushed memory prices -- and now it earns nearly five times that in a single quarter. The same operating leverage cuts in both directions, and memory investors have seen both sides of it inside three years.
So what's the right way for Micron shareholders to handle Monday's debut? Calmly, I'd argue. At about $920 per share, Micron trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 21, a multiple that already treats the current earnings explosion as temporary. The market, of course, has never believed this boom would last forever, CXMT or no CXMT.
Alphabet (GOOG +0.21%) (GOOGL +0.58%) is a major player in the artificial intelligence (AI) race. It's the largest of the four hyperscalers, and when it makes a decision, it sends ripples through the industry.
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai just made an announcement that will affect chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA -1.01%) and Broadcom (AVGO -2.88%), and it's good news -- at least for those two companies.
Following this announcement, Alphabet's stock slumped, but I think that actually created a better long-term buying opportunity.
Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai. Image source: Alphabet.
Alphabet continues to raise data center spending guidance After the closing bell on Wednesday, Alphabet released its Q2 results, and in that report, it hiked its guidance for 2026's data center capital expenditures.
Alphabet's initial capital expenditure guidance range for the year was between $175 billion and $185 billion. That range got boosted by $10 billion in conjunction with the Q1 report; now, it has been boosted in the same increment to $195 billion to $205 billion. The picture that this paints is that Alphabet may be publicly offering a forecast for its capex spending, but what's really going on is that management is basically giving itself a blank check for AI spending if computing capacity becomes available on a quicker timeline than previously expected.
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Another item that may worry investors is that Alphabet can no longer cover all this spending with the company's cash flow. Over the past 12 months, Alphabet generated $186 billion in cash from operations. That means that even if it spent all its cash flow on data centers, that still wouldn't be enough to cover this year's build-out. It also has share buyback plans and dividend obligations, so it will have to raise capital to fill this gap, which it has done.
The bulk of this spending is flowing to a handful of suppliers, including Broadcom and Nvidia. Nvidia makes broad-purpose GPUs that are popular options to rent on Google Cloud and other cloud platforms. Broadcom is the design partner behind Alphabet's custom AI chip, the Tensor Processing Unit (TPU). These are growing in popularity in its data centers, and Alphabet is also starting to sell them to outside customers.
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Any time Alphabet raises its capital expenditure guidance, shareholders in these two chip giants should get excited, as that likely signals an increase in their revenues.
Investors in Alphabet were less than pleased with news of its latest capex budget hike, so its stock sold off on the news. I think that was a mistake, too, as Alphabet has proven it can turn the computing resources it is bringing online into immediate profit centers, as evidenced by Google Cloud's 82% growth rate. While it's not a popular decision on Wall Street yet, I think Alphabet's move to spend more on data center platforms is the right one, and positions it strongly for the long term.
Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet, Broadcom, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Broadcom, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
SPOT's stock price dropped by 30% since its ATH. But I think the drop is not justified by business fundamentals. SPOT demonstrates robust MAU and premium subscriber growth, supported by geographic diversification and effective monetization initiatives.
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A 62-year-old who wants to stop working but delay Social Security faces a specific math problem: cover about $3,400 a month, or $40,800 a year, from portfolio income alone until the checks start. That is roughly the average retired-worker benefit at full retirement age, and it is the gap this bridge portfolio has to fill.
The Social Security Administration’s rules make the stakes clear. Claim at 62 and benefits are cut by up to 30% below the full retirement age amount, while waiting past full retirement age adds roughly 8% per year up to age 70. Every year a portfolio can carry the household is a permanent raise on the benefit.
The formula is simple: income target divided by yield equals capital required.
The Conservative Tier: 3% to 4% Yield At a 3.5% blended yield, replacing $40,800 a year requires about $1,165,714 in capital. That is the price of the “sleep at night” portfolio built around dividend-growth blue chips and regulated utilities.
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ | JNJ Price Prediction) is the archetype. The company just raised its quarterly payout to $1.34 a share, extending a streak from $0.25 in Q1 1999 to today. Shares trade near $258, putting the current yield close to 2.1%, with the stock up 56% over the past year.
Alliant Energy (NASDAQ:LNT) shows the utility profile: a quarterly payout of $0.535, a 2.8% yield, and management’s guidance for more than 6% compound annual earnings growth supported by 3.4 GW of contracted data-center demand. Modest yield, but the dividend keeps rising.
The tradeoff at this tier is capital. Most 62-year-olds bridging to Social Security do not have $1.16 million liquid outside their home.
The Moderate Tier: 5% to 7% Yield At a 5% blended yield, the capital requirement drops to $816,000. This is the zone of high-dividend banks, preferred shares, REITs, and covered-call equity funds.
East West Bancorp (NASDAQ:EWBC) illustrates the growth-oriented end. The bank just declared an $0.80 quarterly dividend, up from $0.60 a year ago, and posted EPS of $9.87 on 17% return on equity. The current yield sits under 1%, but the growth rate is aggressive.
Investors need the yield itself here, which typically comes from preferred stock funds, mortgage REITs held in moderation, and midstream energy names paying in the 5% to 7% range.
The Aggressive Tier: 8% to 14% Yield Push the blended yield to 10% and the capital drops to $408,000. Push it to 12% and it drops to $340,000. A $550,000 portfolio generates $3,400 a month at a blended yield of about 7.4%.
Plains All American Pipeline (NASDAQ:PAA) anchors the midstream slice. The partnership pays $0.4175 per unit quarterly, or $1.67 annualized, after a distribution progression from $0.3175 in 2024 to today’s rate. Units trade at roughly $24, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to a $2.88 billion midpoint. Investors receive a K-1, not a 1099, which complicates IRA use.
AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) shows the mortgage-REIT extreme: $0.12 monthly, or $1.44 a year, against a $11 share price. That produces a 13.4% yield. The catch: management cut the payout from $0.16 to $0.12 in 2020, book value swings with mortgage spreads, and the current $9 book value is below the share price.
Why Yield Alone Misses the Story Over 30 years, a 3.5% starting yield that grows 8% annually crushes a static 12% yield. JNJ’s payout climbed from $3.32 a year in 2017 to $5.24 trailing today. AGNC’s moved the opposite direction. For a 62-year-old bridging five to eight years to Social Security, that gap is manageable. For a 45-year-old, it is disqualifying.
The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.6% and Fed funds at 3.75% to 4%, so income investors are not being forced into the aggressive tier the way they were a few years ago.
Three Actions Before Writing the Checks Price the delay. Compare the eight-year cost of drawing $40,800 from the portfolio against the permanent benefit uplift from waiting until 70. The 8% annual credit compounds. Stress-test the aggressive tier. Model AGNC or a similar mREIT with a 25% distribution cut and a 20% price drawdown, matching its 2020 pattern. If the bridge still holds, the allocation is defensible. Segregate the K-1 names. Hold PAA and other MLPs in a taxable account to avoid UBTI issues inside an IRA, and factor state tax filings into the after-tax yield. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
A $36,000 annual income works out to $3,000 a month, roughly what the average Social Security check delivers. It is also the exact income a $400,000 investment can throw off at a 9% yield, the sweet spot where business development company ETFs live. The real question is what you give up to get it.
The Yield Tiers for a $36,000 Income The formula is the same at every yield level: annual income divided by yield equals the capital you need. Higher yield means less capital and more risk. Lower yield means more capital and more durability.
Conservative tier (3 to 4%). $36,000 divided by 0.035 is roughly $1,030,000. This is broad-market dividend growth territory: quality large caps, dividend aristocrat funds, and diversified equity income ETFs. The 10-year Treasury alone is paying 4.6%, so 3.5% dividend equity should come with meaningful capital appreciation and payout growth on top.
Moderate tier (5 to 7%). $36,000 divided by 0.06 equals $600,000. This is covered call ETFs, preferred shares, midstream energy, and mainstream REITs. Distributions are higher but growth flattens, and inflation slowly grinds down real purchasing power.
Aggressive tier (8 to 14%). $36,000 divided by 0.09 equals $400,000, the headline scenario. Push to 12% and the requirement drops to $300,000. This is where BDC ETFs live, and where principal risk becomes real.
What $400,000 in BDC ETFs Actually Buys Putnam BDC Income ETF (NYSEARCA:PBDC) is an actively managed BDC-of-BDCs with an expense ratio of 0.13%. Its trailing 12-month distributions totaled $3.05433 per share against a recent price of roughly $26. The forward annualized estimate has slipped to $2.784, and shares are down 15% over the past year.
ETRACS Wells Fargo BDC ETN (NYSE:BDCZ) is an unsecured note issued by UBS, not an ETF, meaning holders take UBS credit risk on top of the underlying BDC exposure. It trades near $15 with a trailing 12-month distribution of $1.7509, and shares are down 14% over the past year.
Ares Capital (NASDAQ:ARCC | ARCC Price Prediction), the largest single BDC and PBDC’s top holding, pays a $0.48 quarterly dividend at a share price of almost $19.
What Default Risk Really Looks Like Default risk in a BDC portfolio shows up quarter by quarter in non-accruals: loans that have stopped paying interest. At Ares Capital, best-in-class in this sector, non-accruals climbed from 1.7% at year-end 2024 to 1.8% through most of 2025 and then to 2.1% at amortized cost in Q1 2026. Net unrealized losses widened to $412 million from $63 million a year earlier, and NAV per share slipped to roughly $20 from just under $20.
Yields on underlying loans are compressing too, from 11.1% at year-end 2024 to 10.3% in Q1 2026, largely because the Fed funds rate has come down to 3.75% and roughly 72% of the portfolio is floating rate. CEO Kort Schnabel called it “solid core earnings, continued healthy portfolio performance and borrower fundamentals, and low levels of non-accruing investments”, and the trend line for credit is up while the trend line for yield is down.
The Compounding Argument Most Buyers Skip A 9% BDC yield that stays flat pays $36,000 in year one and $36,000 in year ten, minus whatever principal has eroded. A 3.5% dividend growth portfolio that raises payouts 7% annually starts at roughly $36,050 on $1.03 million and doubles the income in about a decade, with the principal typically growing alongside it. At 9% you are renting income; at 3.5% you are building it.
PBDC distributions illustrate the point. The most recent quarterly payment was $0.696, down from $0.8251 in December 2025. That distribution cut already happened.
Three Steps Before You Commit Capital Pull the last five years of non-accrual rates and NAV per share for any BDC or BDC fund you own. If non-accruals are rising and NAV is falling, the current distribution yield is being subsidized by principal. Compare 10-year total return, not yield, between a broad dividend growth ETF and a BDC fund. Total return captures the compounding you actually keep. If you buy an ETN like BDCZ, size the position for issuer default. UBS credit risk is separate from the BDC index it tracks, and unsecured notes recover cents on the dollar in a bankruptcy. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Shares of SLB (SLB +11.01%) climbed last week after the oilfield services leader reported higher-than-expected sales and profits.
Image source: Getty Images.
Energy security and AI-fueled gains SLB's revenue rose 5% year over year to $8.97 billion in the second quarter.
CEO Olivier Le Peuch said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving its customers to prioritize "energy security, supply diversification, and production capacity expansion." Companies are also investing in technology to extend the useful lives of their energy assets.
At the same time, SLB is expanding into lucrative new markets. First among these is the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, for which SLB offers modular infrastructure manufacturing, engineering, and design services.
SLB's data center revenue soared 80%, placing it on pace to surpass a $1 billion annualized run rate by the end of 2026 and $2 billion by the end of next year.
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All told, SLB's adjusted earnings checked in at $0.55. That topped Wall Street's estimates, which had called for per-share profits of $0.52, according to Yahoo! Finance.
Demand for SLB's offerings is set to rise War in the Middle East is forcing governments and companies to rethink their energy strategies. Dependable energy supplies are becoming even more valuable, and the businesses that can help to ensure them are likely to see rising demand for their services in the coming years.
SLB, as a respected leader in the oil and gas services industry, is well-positioned to help meet the world's need for reliable and cost-effective energy.
Joe Tenebruso has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
LOUISVILLE, Ky.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Brown-Forman Corporation (NYSE: BFA, BFB) today announced that its Board of Directors has received an unsolicited proposal from Sazerac to acquire Brown-Forman, and, taking into consideration Wolf Pen Branch, LP's view as noted below, has concluded that Sazerac's proposal is not actionable. Wolf Pen Branch, LP, a collection of Brown family members representing the majority of Brown-Forman Class A shares, said, “As fourth-, fifth- and sixth-generation shareholde.
Robinhood is reportedly in talks with Crypto.com to expand its prediction market footprint.
That’s according to a report Friday (July 24) by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing sources familiar with the matter. The report noted that Robinhood has so far worked with companies like Kalshi to supply betting contracts for its prediction platform, though the companies are now more like rivals than partners.
Under this proposed partnership, Crypto.com’s prediction market business would be added to Robinhood’s prediction hub, letting users place yes-or-no bets offered by the crypto company on Robinhood’s trading platform, the sources said. The report added there are no guarantees the two companies will reach an agreement.
PYMNTS has contacted Robinhood and Crypto.com for comment but hasn’t yet gotten a response. A spokesperson for Kalshi declined to comment.
A spokesperson for Robinhood told WSJ the company “will continue to partner with multiple exchanges to ensure our customers have access to a diverse and resilient marketplace.”
As the report noted, Crypto.com debuted its stand-alone prediction markets platform OG in February, and has offered prediction markets contracts through its derivatives business since late 2024. Last year, Crypto.com announced a collaboration with President Trump’s media business to introduce prediction markets directly on the social media platform Truth Social, though that has yet to launch.
Kalshi, meanwhile, has been at the forefront of the prediction wave in the U.S., seeing $27 billion in volume for World Cup-related markets, versus around $1 billion for the Super Bowl.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told WSJ the company plans to expand its range of tradable assets beyond just events-based contracts, and called Robinhood a top competitor.
“They’re a partner of ours at the same time they’re competing with us, and I think that’s also great,” he said. “We’ll see who ends up with a better product.”
In other prediction market news, PYMNTS wrote last week about the industry’s contribution to a world in which gambling “is no longer simply a single, static industry,” thanks to the rise of companies like Kalshi, sports betting apps, and crypto exchanges.
“As artificial intelligence personalizes financial products, prediction markets and digital commerce, it will create new questions for executives across financial services, media and digital commerce,” that report said. “The future may not involve convincing consumers to gamble more. It may involve making every digital interaction feel just uncertain enough that they cannot resist checking one more time.”
Bitcoin remains in a bear market but may be entering its final stretch, according to a chart analyst tracking the cryptocurrency’s historical four-year cycle, with a possible bottom forming as soon as October.
A Cycle Bitcoin Has Followed Before
Bitcoin has historically moved through roughly one year of bear market followed by three years of bull market, based on patterns dating back to prior cycles. The current downturn began after Bitcoin’s October 2025 high, putting the cryptocurrency roughly on track to enter its final quarter of decline, the analyst said.
Bitcoin has already reached the full $66,230 to $76,640 resistance zone for Q3, a level the analyst had flagged in advance as the ceiling for this stage of the cycle. A rejection from resistance could open a path down toward $56,500, then $44,000, with $39,000 identified as a further downside target if selling accelerates.
Near-Term Levels to Watch
On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin was rejected near $66,300 in mid-July before breaking below a rising trend line, which now sits near $65,300 and could act as resistance going forward. Near-term support sits in a zone between $59,369 and $62,533, the analyst says, describing this as the key area to watch heading into the weekly close.
A separate resistance band between $64,922 and $66,227 is also being tracked as a ceiling for any short-term bounce, based on Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent high.
Seasonal Patterns Point to a Volatile August
Seasonality data reviewed by the analyst shows that August and September have historically been weak months for Bitcoin during past bear market years, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, while July has typically been the strongest month of any bear market year. In 2022, Bitcoin extended gains into mid-August before reversing, a pattern the analyst said could repeat, though he warned it isn’t a scenario he would trade aggressively.
A Separate Timing Model Points to October
A separate cycle-tracking tool used by the analyst identifies a dominant 260-day rhythm in Bitcoin’s price action. That model correctly flagged a cycle top forming in late May, which was followed by the current selloff. Based on that same rhythm, the tool points to a possible major low forming around October this year, with a margin of two to four weeks in either direction.
The analyst stressed that both the seasonal and cycle-based tools describe general tendencies rather than precise forecasts, and that no method can guarantee exactly when or where Bitcoin’s bear market will conclude.
Story Ends Here
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27 July 2026 | 00:20 The Bank of Japan holds its next monetary policy meeting on July 30 and 31, six weeks after raising its policy rate to 1%, the highest level in 31 years.
Key Takeaways BOJ meets July 30–31, after the Fed. Markets expect rates to remain at 1%. The Outlook Report is the main variable. Faster hikes would strengthen the yen. Government pressure complicates the policy path. Bitcoin’s risk comes through carry trades. Markets place little probability on another immediate hike. The focus is whether Governor Kazuo Ueda and the Policy Board encourage investors to expect the following move earlier than the current consensus.
Bitcoin is absent from the meeting agenda. The Bank of Japan’s published schedule lists the monetary policy statement, quarterly Outlook Report and Ueda’s press conference, with no mention of cryptocurrency.
The connection is indirect. A more restrictive policy path strengthens the yen, raises Japanese bond yields and makes borrowing in Japan to finance investments elsewhere less attractive. A rapid reduction in those positions puts pressure on Bitcoin alongside equities and other liquid risk assets.
BOJ Guidance Has Already Moved the Yen On July 22, Bloomberg reported that BOJ officials were open to raising rates faster than economists anticipated if continued yen weakness added to inflation risk. Policymakers reportedly saw growing evidence that companies were passing higher costs on to consumers.
The yen strengthened and short-term Japanese government bond yields rose after the report. USD/JPY fell towards 162.65 from above 163, despite the bank making no official policy announcement.
That reaction shows how sensitive markets are to the timing of the next move. Most BOJ watchers expect another hike in December, while a Reuters poll conducted before the June decision found that 86% of economists put the rate at 1.25% by the end of 2026. October and December were the most common forecasts.
The July Outlook Report will test that timetable. Language supporting a faster pace pulls the next hike forward, while a more cautious assessment reverses some of the yen strength and bond-market repricing already in place.
A Hold at 1% Remains the Base Case Financial markets have most likely largely priced out a July move. The BOJ raised rates by 25 basis points in June, while Japan’s core consumer inflation remained at 1.6% that month, below the 2% target for a fifth consecutive reading.
Tokyo inflation data, published before the national figures, remains one of the earliest signals capable of shifting rate expectations.
The tightening cycle likely has further to run. In a June 3 speech, Ueda said the bank would continue raising rates if economic activity, prices and financial conditions developed in line with its outlook.
The BOJ’s April projections placed inflation between 2.5% and 3% for fiscal 2026. The bank also warned that yen weakness raises the cost of imported fuel, food and raw materials.
Reuters sources indicate that the July report may lift the fiscal 2026 growth forecast while retaining the warning about an inflation overshoot. Import costs and strong demand linked to artificial intelligence investment offset some of the relief created by lower oil prices.
The likely outcome is an unchanged rate accompanied by guidance that keeps another hike firmly under consideration.
The Government Wants Lower Rates and a Stronger Yen Domestic politics complicate the BOJ’s position.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi entered office promising investment-led growth supported by heavy public spending, an agenda that benefits from lower borrowing costs. Reuters reported in June that her government was trying to restore a more dovish balance on the BOJ board. Her first appointee, Toichiro Asada, voted against the June hike.
Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai described personnel appointments as the administration’s strongest lever, since direct public criticism of monetary policy risks unsettling markets. The government’s first economic blueprint also calls for policy to support its growth programme.
Yet further yen weakness raises import prices and household expenses. Toshihiro Nagahama, a government panel member and economic adviser to Takaichi, said in July that the BOJ should continue raising rates gradually to correct excessive currency depreciation.
The government therefore favours slower tightening while also wanting relief from a weak yen. That conflict makes a surprise move less attractive, and it also limits the bank’s ability to signal that the hiking cycle is finished.
The Federal Reserve Sets the Backdrop First The Federal Open Market Committee meets on July 28 and 29, two days before the BOJ decision. Its target range currently stands at 3.5% to 3.75%.
Markets are not fully committed to a hold. CME FedWatch put the probability of an unchanged range at 62.1%, leaving 37.9% odds of a hike to 3.75%-4%.
Federal Reserve target rate probabilities for the upcoming July 29, 2026 meeting. That pricing matters for how the BOJ decision lands. A US hike would widen the rate gap and cushion the yen against hawkish Japanese guidance two days later. A hold accompanied by softer language would leave the yen more exposed to whatever the BOJ signals.
July is a non-projection meeting, so there will be no updated dot plot. Markets will instead focus on the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.
The wide gap between US and Japanese rates helps preserve the appeal of borrowing in yen and investing in higher-yielding dollar assets. USD/JPY responds to expectations for both central banks, and yen weakness through 2026 has tracked the US path as closely as the Japanese one.
A hawkish Fed supports the dollar and softens the effect of stricter BOJ guidance. A more dovish Fed makes a hawkish signal from Japan more powerful by favouring yen appreciation from both sides of the exchange rate.
How the Yen Carry Trade Reaches Bitcoin The yen carry trade involves borrowing in Japan at comparatively low rates, converting the funds into another currency and investing in assets offering higher potential returns.
The position remains attractive while Japanese funding stays cheap and the yen fails to strengthen enough to erase the investment gain. When rate expectations rise or the currency appreciates sharply, those trades become less profitable and often need to be reduced.
Bitcoin feels the effect without ever being purchased with borrowed yen. Such financing is used across equities, bonds, currencies and derivatives, so when losses or margin requirements increase, funds sell liquid assets across their portfolios.
Institutional carry positions take days or weeks to unwind. Crypto derivatives react faster, since leveraged perpetual positions are liquidated within hours once prices move against crowded traders. We documented that pattern in March, when a single risk-off session wiped out $588 million in crypto positions, roughly $493 million of it long.
Bitcoin is particularly exposed during those periods because it trades continuously and can be sold while traditional markets are closed. James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research, described carry-trade reversals as global liquidity shocks rather than isolated currency events.
The greatest risk emerges when Japanese rate expectations rise, the yen strengthens and leveraged investors begin cutting positions at the same time.
Four Ways the BOJ Decision Could Play Out BOJ Outcomes and the Likely Bitcoin Impact Scenario Likelihood Policy Outcome Yen / Bond Reaction Bitcoin & Risk Asset Impact Balanced Hold Most likely Rates at 1%; future moves left dependent on inflation, wages and growth Reverses part of the recent yen strength and bond-yield rise Neutral; Fed decision, ETF flows and market structure take over Hawkish Hold Live risk Rates at 1%; growth forecast lifted, inflation-overshoot warning retained Yen strengthens; next hike priced forward from December to October or September Negative if derivatives leverage is elevated when the report lands Surprise Hike Least likely Rates unexpectedly raised to 1.25% Rapid yen rally; Japanese bond yields move sharply higher Clearest downside; forced selling appears fast in round-the-clock crypto markets Dovish Hold Possible Rates at 1%; weak consumption and softer core inflation emphasised Yen weakens; cheap funding preserved Short-term support, with higher intervention risk later Rates Stay at 1% With Balanced Guidance This probably remains the most likely and least disruptive result.
The BOJ leaves future moves dependent on inflation, wages and growth without indicating that the next hike is imminent. A cautious Outlook Report would probably reverse part of the yen strength and bond-yield rise seen this week.
Bitcoin then might respond more to the Federal Reserve’s decision, ETF flows and its own market structure than to Japan.
Rates Stay at 1% With a Hawkish Outlook An unchanged rate still pressures risk assets if the BOJ lifts its growth forecast, retains its inflation-overshoot warning or suggests that the interval between hikes may shorten.
Traders would pull expectations for the next move forward from December towards October or September. That supports the yen and raises the cost of maintaining short-yen positions.
An official BOJ document carries more weight than a report based on unnamed sources, so the reaction would likely exceed what markets showed on July 22. Bitcoin’s response depends heavily on how much leverage sits in derivatives markets when the announcement arrives.
The BOJ Unexpectedly Raises Rates to 1.25% This is the least likely outcome and the clearest short-term downside risk.
Markets have largely priced out a July move, the bank acted only in June, and BOJ decisions are normally prepared through public communication. Political pressure for a gentler path further reduces the incentive to surprise investors.
That positioning is what would make an unexpected hike disruptive. Markets would need to reassess both the current rate and the timing of future tightening, producing a rapid yen rally and higher Japanese bond yields.
Forced selling might appear quickly in Bitcoin because crypto markets remain open around the clock.
A Dovish Hold Delays the Next Move The BOJ emphasises weak consumption, economic uncertainty or the recent softening in core inflation.
That could weaken the yen and preserve cheap funding, offering short-term support to Bitcoin and other risk assets.
Further currency depreciation carries a later cost. Higher import prices increase political pressure and raise the probability of a stronger response from either the BOJ or Japan’s Ministry of Finance.
Currency Intervention Remains a Separate Risk Foreign-exchange intervention is authorised by the Ministry of Finance and executed by the BOJ as its agent. It requires no monetary policy meeting and arrives without advance notice.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has repeatedly warned against excessive currency moves as the yen weakened during 2026. A confirmed intervention would produce a sharp appreciation within minutes.
For Bitcoin, the immediate effect resembles a surprise rate hike. A sudden yen rally places pressure on leveraged carry positions even while the policy rate stays unchanged.
A dovish BOJ decision therefore lowers the immediate rate risk while raising the chance of intervention if USD/JPY climbs further.
July 2024 Shows How an Unwind Can Escalate The BOJ raised its policy rate to 0.25% on July 31, 2024, alongside a plan to reduce purchases of Japanese government bonds.
The yen had already begun strengthening, and the decision accelerated the change in rate expectations. Investors started cutting leveraged positions financed in the Japanese currency.
Pressure intensified days later when weak US employment data triggered the Sahm Rule recession indicator, alongside soft manufacturing figures. Bitcoin fell more than 15% on August 5 and briefly traded below $50,000, while equities and other cryptocurrencies also declined.
Describing the event as a BOJ-driven Bitcoin crash would leave out important causes. The rate hike, yen appreciation, US recession fears and crowded positioning arrived within the same period.
Bitcoin’s worst week of 2026 followed the same shape, with ETF outflows, forced liquidations and a macro rotation hitting at once.
The broader crypto sell-off reflected a global retreat from risk, with the carry-trade reversal amplifying pressure that weak US data had already created.
January 2025 Shows Why Expectations Matter The BOJ raised its policy rate to 0.5% on January 24, 2025. Unlike the July 2024 move, the increase had been clearly signalled and was widely anticipated.
The yen strengthened while global risk markets absorbed the decision without widespread forced selling. Bitcoin traded near $105,000 and was approximately 1.8% higher later that day, according to Reuters market data.
Changes in US cryptocurrency policy also supported Bitcoin, so the BOJ decision worked alongside other influences. The comparison still holds: a Japanese rate rise on its own rarely produces a crypto sell-off. Our review of how Bitcoin reacted through the 2022-2023 Fed hiking cycle found the same pattern in the United States, where positioning ahead of each meeting shaped the response more than the policy outcome itself.
The result depends on how much of the move has already been priced, how strongly the yen responds and whether leveraged positions are forced to close.
What to Watch During the Meeting USD/JPY: A sharp decline would signal yen strength and pressure on short-yen positions. Japanese two-year yields: These reflect expectations for the BOJ’s near-term policy path. Bitcoin open interest: Elevated positioning would increase the risk of forced liquidations. Funding rates: Extreme readings would reveal crowded directional exposure. Global equities: A simultaneous decline would support a broader deleveraging explanation. A Bitcoin decline accompanied by falling open interest suggests positions are being closed or liquidated. Weakness with open interest still rising indicates traders adding new bearish exposure.
What Determines the Reaction July 2024 showed how a yen rally amplifies broader selling when leverage is high and other macroeconomic concerns are already present. January 2025 showed that a well-telegraphed hike passes without a Bitcoin decline.
This meeting arrives with the yen near multi-decade lows, a Fed decision two days earlier, fresh reporting that the bank may move faster than expected, a government pulling against the pace, and an intervention risk that needs no meeting at all. Whether July 31 registers as a routine policy update or a broader liquidity shock depends on the surprise, the yen’s response and the leverage built around the decision.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Central-bank decisions can produce sudden volatility, while historical market reactions do not guarantee similar future results. Methodology: Meeting dates, policy rates and official guidance are sourced from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The July 22 report on the BOJ’s openness to faster tightening is based on Bloomberg reporting using unnamed sources and has not been confirmed by the bank. Political context and market expectations use Reuters reporting, while the crypto liquidity assessment references CoinShares research. Market levels are stated as of July 27, 2026. Author
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
Bitcoin has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 record high near $126,000, remaining below that peak for 275 days.
Bitcoin ended the first half of 2026 near $60,000 after falling about 32% since January, Binance Research reported. Its Half-Year 2026: Macro & Bitcoin report described the decline as a third consecutive quarterly loss across broader financial markets worldwide.
The weak first-half performance also extended Bitcoin’s longer-term drawdown. According to the report, the asset has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 record high near $126,000. It has also spent 275 days below that peak, underscoring the depth and persistence of the current market downturn.
On-Chain Data Signals Market Stress On-chain data showed 10.83 million BTC ended the period in unrealized loss, while 9.22 million units remained profitable instead. Binance Research said this marked the first loss-over-profit crossover during the current market cycle, making conditions important for analysts.
The researchers noted similar crossovers have historically appeared near major Bitcoin market bottoms before stronger recoveries eventually followed. However, they cautioned that historical patterns alone cannot confirm the current cycle will produce the same outcome.
Beyond the on-chain signals, Binance attributed Bitcoin’s weak performance mainly to broader macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific developments. The report said markets shifted from liquidity-driven expectations toward economic fundamentals as monetary policy remained restrictive throughout the first half of 2026.
Expectations for interest rates also changed as hopes for aggressive cuts faded. Futures markets instead reflected an 80% probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase before December, adding pressure across financial markets.
Macro Pressures Weigh on Bitcoin The report also said higher real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and tighter liquidity continued to weigh on Bitcoin. While technology stocks rebounded on optimism around artificial intelligence, BTC lagged behind many major asset classes during the same period.
A resilient U.S. economy also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon. Binance Research said artificial intelligence was a key driver of first-quarter economic activity. At the same time, core PCE inflation rose to 3.4%, its highest level since late 2023, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain stubborn.
That backdrop also weakened demand for crypto. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows during the first half of the year.
Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of MO, BTI either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.
Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.
Cashier in a warehouse that receives payments and transactions in bitcoin.
AFP via Getty Images
Bitcoin began as peer-to-peer electronic cash, but the market gave it a different job. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has become crypto’s benchmark investment asset: something to accumulate, custody, borrow against, and measure against. Stablecoins, meanwhile, became the industry’s practical payment rail.
That split made sense. Bitcoin’s volatility, confirmation times, and tax complexity made it awkward for everyday spending, while stablecoins offered the thing merchants and users actually needed: a familiar unit of account that could move quickly across digital rails. Bitcoin became the asset people did not want to spend. Stablecoins became the money they could.
The gap is becoming more visible as stablecoins move deeper into mainstream payment infrastructure. Visa said its stablecoin settlement pilot now supports nine blockchains and had reached a $7 billion annualized settlement run rate as of March 2026. That does not mean stablecoins have solved every payments problem, but it does show which part of crypto is being absorbed most quickly into commercial finance.
Bitcoin is now facing the opposite question. It does not need to prove that it can be held. It needs to prove that it can move in ways that create useful economic activity. More specifically, it raises a question for the companies that secure the network: can miners evolve from passive validators into active participants in Bitcoin’s payment economy?
For most of Bitcoin’s history, miners have had a narrow but essential role: secure the network, validate transactions, and earn block rewards plus transaction fees. Yet block rewards decline with each halving, which means Bitcoin’s long-term economics increasingly depend on whether transaction activity can become a more meaningful source of revenue. That transition is still far from complete. Hashrate Index reported that during the week of July 13, 2026, miners collected roughly 2,914 BTC in block rewards, while transaction fees accounted for only 20 BTC, or 0.69% of block rewards.
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That is the opening for a new kind of mining question. If miners can help facilitate payment activity, not just secure final settlement, they may open a revenue model that complements block rewards and transaction fees while pushing Bitcoin closer to its original payment vision.
Stablecoins Won The First Crypto Payments CycleThe reason stablecoins became crypto’s payment layer is not hard to understand. They removed the hardest part of spending crypto: price uncertainty. A user sending dollars on-chain does not have to worry that tomorrow’s price will make today’s purchase look expensive. A merchant receiving dollar-equivalent value does not have to become a crypto treasury manager.
Bitcoin payments never had that luxury. The stronger Bitcoin’s investment narrative became, the harder it was to frame spending as rational consumer behavior. For many holders, paying with Bitcoin still feels less like using money and more like selling an appreciating asset.
That does not mean Bitcoin payments disappeared. It means they moved into infrastructure debates: Lightning channels, custodial wallets, merchant processors, fiat conversion, and now potentially miner-linked payment models. The market is no longer waiting for Bitcoin holders to suddenly behave like debit-card users. It is trying to make Bitcoin spendable without making the user experience feel like a raw blockchain transaction.
Coins.ph offers a recent example of that approach. The company expanded its QRPh crypto payment functionality to include Bitcoin and Ethereum, allowing users to spend crypto at an estimated 700,000 QRPh-enabled merchants in the Philippines, with crypto converted into Philippine pesos at checkout.
That matters because it does not ask merchants to price goods in Bitcoin or manage crypto settlement risk. It lets users spend from crypto balances through a familiar domestic payment framework.
Wei Zhou, CEO of Coins.ph, said user behavior suggests consumers “value the flexibility and wealth potential of holding assets like Bitcoin,” but prefer spending crypto through “familiar local payment rails like QRPh” rather than dealing with raw crypto transactions. He added that stablecoins have been the primary token used since Coins.ph introduced QRPh crypto payments, followed closely by Bitcoin, despite Bitcoin being added later.
That is the useful lesson. Bitcoin may re-enter payments not by replacing local currency at checkout, but by becoming one balance users can spend through systems they already understand.
The Miner Incentive Is DifferentIf Bitcoin payments grow, the most obvious beneficiaries are wallets, processors, and exchanges. But miners have a deeper structural reason to care.
Miners are paid to secure Bitcoin, but the long-term design of Bitcoin assumes that transaction fees become more important over time as newly issued Bitcoin declines. That creates a quiet tension. Bitcoin holders are often incentivized to hold, while miners ultimately benefit from activity.
This is where payment infrastructure becomes relevant to mining economics. If miners remain purely passive validators, they simply wait for transaction demand to appear. But if miners can help create, route, prioritize, or commercially support payment activity, they move closer to the transaction economy itself.
That is the broader significance of GoMining’s GoBTC Pay. According to the company’s launch announcement, GoMining introduced GoBTC Pay, a Bitcoin payment protocol that uses its own mining pool to prioritize transaction confirmation and targets 12-hour final on-chain settlement by the end of 2026. Because this is a company press release, those details should be treated as GoMining’s stated product roadmap rather than independent evidence of market adoption.
The product itself is less important than the model it represents. It treats mining capacity as part of the payment experience, not just a background security function.
Boy George, CEO of GoMining, framed the shift as miners becoming “no longer limited to monetizing security alone.” By participating in payment infrastructure, he said, miners can take part more directly in “commercial activity taking place on the network.”
That is the central market-structure question. If Bitcoin payments become a real economic layer, miners may not only collect fees after transactions arrive. They may help shape the infrastructure that causes more transactions to happen.
A New Revenue Layer, Or A New Control Surface?The opportunity is clear. A miner-linked payments model could give miners exposure to transaction volume in a way that is more predictable than waiting for episodic fee spikes. GoMining says that with GoBTC Pay, 0.1% of each transaction’s value is allocated to miners in its pool for settling the transaction on the network.
That kind of model points toward a broader possibility: miners earning from payment activity as a service layer, not only from block rewards and standard transaction fees. In traditional payments, networks and processors monetize volume. Bitcoin has historically separated network security from the consumer payment experience. Miner-led payment models begin to blur that line.
The risk is equally obvious. Bitcoin’s credibility comes from open participation and neutral settlement. If reliable payment flows depend on a small number of large miners or dedicated pools, Bitcoin payments could become faster and more commercial, but also more dependent on specific infrastructure providers.
That tradeoff matters because Bitcoin’s existing payment infrastructure has largely developed through service layers such as Lightning, custodial wallets, payment processors, and exchange-linked merchant tools. Those systems already show that usability usually requires abstraction. The question is whether miner involvement adds a useful economic layer or creates another point of dependency around settlement.
George acknowledged the concentration risk in principle, saying the goal “should not be to concentrate payment activity around a small group of miners,” but to create incentives for broader participation across the ecosystem.
That is the design challenge. The strongest version of miner-led payments would expand miner participation and improve Bitcoin’s commercial usefulness. The weakest version would simply create another privileged gateway, this time attached to block production.
Bitcoin Payments May Return Through AbstractionThe mistake is assuming Bitcoin payments have to return in their original form to matter. A purist vision would have users spending Bitcoin directly, merchants holding Bitcoin, and the transaction settling natively with minimal intermediation. That remains philosophically clean, but commercially limited.
The more likely path is layered. Consumers spend from crypto balances. Merchants receive local currency. Payment providers manage conversion and compliance. Lightning or other infrastructure handles speed where appropriate. Miners, in some models, help connect settlement activity to mining economics.
Zhou’s view reflects that practical direction. For Bitcoin to become a payment asset again, he said the ecosystem must abstract volatility for merchants through “instantaneous, low-fee Layer-2 scaling networks and automated, real-time fiat conversion at checkout.” He also connected the miner question directly to Bitcoin’s payment future, arguing that miners can become “active payment facilitators and liquidity providers” as block rewards diminish.
That does not mean Bitcoin will displace stablecoins in payments. Stablecoins still have the clearer product-market fit for everyday settlement because they match how consumers and merchants account for value. But Bitcoin has something stablecoins do not: the deepest brand, liquidity, and security profile in crypto.
The question is whether that can be converted into payment utility without breaking the investment narrative that made Bitcoin valuable in the first place.
For miners, this is not nostalgia for Satoshi’s white paper. It is a business model question. If Bitcoin remains mostly dormant monetary property, miners remain tied to block rewards, transaction fees, treasury strategy, power markets, and adjacent infrastructure plays. If Bitcoin payment activity grows, miners may have a path to participate in a wider commercial economy built around the network they secure.
The next phase of Bitcoin payments may therefore look less like a consumer revolution and more like an infrastructure realignment. Stablecoins have already shown that crypto payments work best when users do not have to think about the underlying rails. Bitcoin may need the same lesson.
If miners become part of that stack, their role in Bitcoin changes. They are no longer only securing the ledger. They are helping create the economic activity the ledger is meant to record.
After nearly 3,080 Bitcoin [BTC] left Kraken, attention has shifted back to whale accumulation. The two transfers included 1,265 BTC worth approximately $81.3 million and 1,815 BTC valued at about $116.6 million, bringing the combined value close to $198 million.
Rather than signaling imminent selling, the movements pointed toward coins leaving an exchange for unknown wallets. Such a pattern often reflects long-term holding instead of immediate distribution. However, the transfers arrived while Bitcoin traded within a well-defined recovery structure, making the timing especially notable.
Investors also viewed the withdrawals alongside broader on-chain indicators instead of treating them as isolated events. As a result, the latest whale activity reinforced the argument that large holders continued reducing readily available exchange supply despite recent market volatility.
Scarcity returns to Bitcoin’s favor Bitcoin’s Stock-to-Flow Ratio strengthened considerably and reached 46.5K as of writing, posting a remarkable 350.01% increase over the previous 24 hours. The sharp rise suggested that Bitcoin’s scarcity profile improved after weakening in earlier sessions.
Since the metric compares circulating supply against annual issuance, higher readings generally reflected tighter supply conditions. This shift aligned well with the latest exchange withdrawals because both indicators pointed toward fewer coins remaining available for immediate selling.
However, scarcity alone did not determine future price direction. Market participants still required sustained demand to capitalize on reduced supply. Even so, the improvement suggested that Bitcoin’s long-term supply dynamics remained supportive.
Investors therefore gained another fundamental signal that complemented the growing accumulation narrative driven by large holders.
Source: CryptoQuant Miner behavior eased another source of supply Bitcoin miners also reduced selling pressure during the latest trading session. At press time, the Miners’ Position Index (MPI) dropped to -1.2389 after declining 128.44% over the previous day.
Negative MPI readings historically indicated that miners sold fewer coins relative to their one-year average. That behavior reduced another potential source of market supply after whale withdrawals already removed substantial holdings from exchanges.
Instead of increasing distribution into strength, miners appeared to retain a larger share of newly mined Bitcoin. Such positioning usually reflect greater confidence in future valuations rather than urgency to secure profits. Nevertheless, miner activity represented only one part of Bitcoin’s broader supply picture.
However, reduced miner selling complemented improving scarcity metrics and strengthened the broader case that immediate selling pressure remained relatively contained.
Source: CryptoQuant Can Bitcoin’s channel support fuel another advance? Bitcoin traded near $64,368 after retreating toward the lower boundary of its ascending channel at the time of writing.
BTC’s price respected support around $63,824, keeping the broader recovery structure intact despite the recent pullback. Meanwhile, resistance remained established near $66,835, with another significant barrier positioned around $73,000.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) eased to 50.85, while its moving average stood at 53.66. Those readings showed cooling buying strength rather than aggressive bearish control. The indicator stayed above the oversold region, suggesting sellers had not gained complete dominance.
If buyers defended the channel support, Bitcoin could revisit $66,835 before attempting another move toward $70,000 and eventually $73,000. However, losing $63,824 would likely expose the next major support around $60,000, shifting short-term sentiment back in favor of sellers.
Source: TradingView Conclusively, the latest Kraken withdrawals, stronger Stock-to-Flow Ratio, and subdued miner selling all strengthened Bitcoin’s supply outlook. Although price cooled near channel support, the broader structure remained constructive.
Moreover, current conditions suggest accumulation continues to outweigh distribution. Yet the next decisive move would likely depend on whether buyers maintain control above the $63,824 support level.
Final Summary Bitcoin whales removed nearly $198 million from Kraken, easing immediate exchange selling pressure. BTC still holds ascending channel support while scarcity and miner activity favor stronger supply conditions.
Cashier in a warehouse that receives payments and transactions in bitcoin.
AFP via Getty Images
Bitcoin began as peer-to-peer electronic cash, but the market gave it a different job. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has become crypto’s benchmark investment asset: something to accumulate, custody, borrow against, and measure against. Stablecoins, meanwhile, became the industry’s practical payment rail.
That split made sense. Bitcoin’s volatility, confirmation times, and tax complexity made it awkward for everyday spending, while stablecoins offered the thing merchants and users actually needed: a familiar unit of account that could move quickly across digital rails. Bitcoin became the asset people did not want to spend. Stablecoins became the money they could.
The gap is becoming more visible as stablecoins move deeper into mainstream payment infrastructure. Visa said its stablecoin settlement pilot now supports nine blockchains and had reached a $7 billion annualized settlement run rate as of March 2026. That does not mean stablecoins have solved every payments problem, but it does show which part of crypto is being absorbed most quickly into commercial finance.
Bitcoin is now facing the opposite question. It does not need to prove that it can be held. It needs to prove that it can move in ways that create useful economic activity. More specifically, it raises a question for the companies that secure the network: can miners evolve from passive validators into active participants in Bitcoin’s payment economy?
For most of Bitcoin’s history, miners have had a narrow but essential role: secure the network, validate transactions, and earn block rewards plus transaction fees. Yet block rewards decline with each halving, which means Bitcoin’s long-term economics increasingly depend on whether transaction activity can become a more meaningful source of revenue. That transition is still far from complete. Hashrate Index reported that during the week of July 13, 2026, miners collected roughly 2,914 BTC in block rewards, while transaction fees accounted for only 20 BTC, or 0.69% of block rewards.
MORE FOR YOU
That is the opening for a new kind of mining question. If miners can help facilitate payment activity, not just secure final settlement, they may open a revenue model that complements block rewards and transaction fees while pushing Bitcoin closer to its original payment vision.
Stablecoins Won The First Crypto Payments CycleThe reason stablecoins became crypto’s payment layer is not hard to understand. They removed the hardest part of spending crypto: price uncertainty. A user sending dollars on-chain does not have to worry that tomorrow’s price will make today’s purchase look expensive. A merchant receiving dollar-equivalent value does not have to become a crypto treasury manager.
Bitcoin payments never had that luxury. The stronger Bitcoin’s investment narrative became, the harder it was to frame spending as rational consumer behavior. For many holders, paying with Bitcoin still feels less like using money and more like selling an appreciating asset.
That does not mean Bitcoin payments disappeared. It means they moved into infrastructure debates: Lightning channels, custodial wallets, merchant processors, fiat conversion, and now potentially miner-linked payment models. The market is no longer waiting for Bitcoin holders to suddenly behave like debit-card users. It is trying to make Bitcoin spendable without making the user experience feel like a raw blockchain transaction.
Coins.ph offers a recent example of that approach. The company expanded its QRPh crypto payment functionality to include Bitcoin and Ethereum, allowing users to spend crypto at an estimated 700,000 QRPh-enabled merchants in the Philippines, with crypto converted into Philippine pesos at checkout.
That matters because it does not ask merchants to price goods in Bitcoin or manage crypto settlement risk. It lets users spend from crypto balances through a familiar domestic payment framework.
Wei Zhou, CEO of Coins.ph, said user behavior suggests consumers “value the flexibility and wealth potential of holding assets like Bitcoin,” but prefer spending crypto through “familiar local payment rails like QRPh” rather than dealing with raw crypto transactions. He added that stablecoins have been the primary token used since Coins.ph introduced QRPh crypto payments, followed closely by Bitcoin, despite Bitcoin being added later.
That is the useful lesson. Bitcoin may re-enter payments not by replacing local currency at checkout, but by becoming one balance users can spend through systems they already understand.
The Miner Incentive Is DifferentIf Bitcoin payments grow, the most obvious beneficiaries are wallets, processors, and exchanges. But miners have a deeper structural reason to care.
Miners are paid to secure Bitcoin, but the long-term design of Bitcoin assumes that transaction fees become more important over time as newly issued Bitcoin declines. That creates a quiet tension. Bitcoin holders are often incentivized to hold, while miners ultimately benefit from activity.
This is where payment infrastructure becomes relevant to mining economics. If miners remain purely passive validators, they simply wait for transaction demand to appear. But if miners can help create, route, prioritize, or commercially support payment activity, they move closer to the transaction economy itself.
That is the broader significance of GoMining’s GoBTC Pay. According to the company’s launch announcement, GoMining introduced GoBTC Pay, a Bitcoin payment protocol that uses its own mining pool to prioritize transaction confirmation and targets 12-hour final on-chain settlement by the end of 2026. Because this is a company press release, those details should be treated as GoMining’s stated product roadmap rather than independent evidence of market adoption.
The product itself is less important than the model it represents. It treats mining capacity as part of the payment experience, not just a background security function.
Boy George, CEO of GoMining, framed the shift as miners becoming “no longer limited to monetizing security alone.” By participating in payment infrastructure, he said, miners can take part more directly in “commercial activity taking place on the network.”
That is the central market-structure question. If Bitcoin payments become a real economic layer, miners may not only collect fees after transactions arrive. They may help shape the infrastructure that causes more transactions to happen.
A New Revenue Layer, Or A New Control Surface?The opportunity is clear. A miner-linked payments model could give miners exposure to transaction volume in a way that is more predictable than waiting for episodic fee spikes. GoMining says that with GoBTC Pay, 0.1% of each transaction’s value is allocated to miners in its pool for settling the transaction on the network.
That kind of model points toward a broader possibility: miners earning from payment activity as a service layer, not only from block rewards and standard transaction fees. In traditional payments, networks and processors monetize volume. Bitcoin has historically separated network security from the consumer payment experience. Miner-led payment models begin to blur that line.
The risk is equally obvious. Bitcoin’s credibility comes from open participation and neutral settlement. If reliable payment flows depend on a small number of large miners or dedicated pools, Bitcoin payments could become faster and more commercial, but also more dependent on specific infrastructure providers.
That tradeoff matters because Bitcoin’s existing payment infrastructure has largely developed through service layers such as Lightning, custodial wallets, payment processors, and exchange-linked merchant tools. Those systems already show that usability usually requires abstraction. The question is whether miner involvement adds a useful economic layer or creates another point of dependency around settlement.
George acknowledged the concentration risk in principle, saying the goal “should not be to concentrate payment activity around a small group of miners,” but to create incentives for broader participation across the ecosystem.
That is the design challenge. The strongest version of miner-led payments would expand miner participation and improve Bitcoin’s commercial usefulness. The weakest version would simply create another privileged gateway, this time attached to block production.
Bitcoin Payments May Return Through AbstractionThe mistake is assuming Bitcoin payments have to return in their original form to matter. A purist vision would have users spending Bitcoin directly, merchants holding Bitcoin, and the transaction settling natively with minimal intermediation. That remains philosophically clean, but commercially limited.
The more likely path is layered. Consumers spend from crypto balances. Merchants receive local currency. Payment providers manage conversion and compliance. Lightning or other infrastructure handles speed where appropriate. Miners, in some models, help connect settlement activity to mining economics.
Zhou’s view reflects that practical direction. For Bitcoin to become a payment asset again, he said the ecosystem must abstract volatility for merchants through “instantaneous, low-fee Layer-2 scaling networks and automated, real-time fiat conversion at checkout.” He also connected the miner question directly to Bitcoin’s payment future, arguing that miners can become “active payment facilitators and liquidity providers” as block rewards diminish.
That does not mean Bitcoin will displace stablecoins in payments. Stablecoins still have the clearer product-market fit for everyday settlement because they match how consumers and merchants account for value. But Bitcoin has something stablecoins do not: the deepest brand, liquidity, and security profile in crypto.
The question is whether that can be converted into payment utility without breaking the investment narrative that made Bitcoin valuable in the first place.
For miners, this is not nostalgia for Satoshi’s white paper. It is a business model question. If Bitcoin remains mostly dormant monetary property, miners remain tied to block rewards, transaction fees, treasury strategy, power markets, and adjacent infrastructure plays. If Bitcoin payment activity grows, miners may have a path to participate in a wider commercial economy built around the network they secure.
The next phase of Bitcoin payments may therefore look less like a consumer revolution and more like an infrastructure realignment. Stablecoins have already shown that crypto payments work best when users do not have to think about the underlying rails. Bitcoin may need the same lesson.
If miners become part of that stack, their role in Bitcoin changes. They are no longer only securing the ledger. They are helping create the economic activity the ledger is meant to record.
China's A-share market has a new "stock king": Changxin Technology surges 471.59% on its debut, with market capitalization exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan.
When China's A-share market opened, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index declined 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index edged up 0.03%; ChangXin Technology surged 471.59% on its first day of listing, opening at 49.5 yuan per share with a corresponding market capitalization of 3.31 trillion yuan, making it the largest-cap stock on the A-share market.
7 minutes ago
Jiang Zhuoer: Changxin Technology’s opening price is too high, with no trading or arbitrage opportunities left.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP (LeiBit Mining Pool), posted that Changxin Technology’s opening price is too high, leaving no trading or arbitrage opportunities. Yesterday, he noted, “Changxin Storage will likely open higher, surge then pull back, hitting its all-time high on the first trading day. The perfect strategy is to buy at the A-share opening, sell during the midday Hong Kong market hype, then sell on A-share the next day while closing out the Hong Kong position. If you don’t hold a Hong Kong market position, once trapped by T+1 rules, you might end up like PetroChina, stuck for a lifetime.”
According to market data, Changxin Technology’s call auction is temporarily quoted at 49.5 yuan, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share, marking a 471.59% increase.
7 minutes ago
Changxin Technology's contract price once again breaks through the $7 mark on trade.xyz
Changxin Technology has entered the opening call auction on China's STAR Market, with its stock temporarily quoted at 49.5 yuan. Driven by this, Changxin Technology's stock contract has rallied again on trade.xyz, now trading at 7.2 U.S. dollars.
7 minutes ago
Summary of Views on Changxin Technology: There is a potential for a price surge on its listing day, and a market capitalization of RMB 3-4 trillion has become the consensus.
For today’s listing of Changxin Technology, crypto KOLs have shared divergent predictions. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, holds a relatively pessimistic view. He believes Changxin Technology will likely open higher, surge and then pull back, hitting its all-time high on the first trading day. The perfect playbook, he says, would be: buy on the A-share opening, sell during the midday hype-driven surge, then sell on A-shares the next day while closing out the hype position. If you don’t have a hype position, trapped by the T+1 trading rule, you might end up holding it for life just like PetroChina. Mango Labs founder @dov_wo is far more bullish: “I’ve gone long on Changxin Technology. In my view, Changxin offers a rare 1:5 risk-reward opportunity—downside of 20%, upside of 100%, a 1-to-5 payout ratio.” @dov_wo lists his bullish reasons as: low tradable share ratio, regulatory factors, and institutional optimism for its investment opportunity at a market cap below 3 trillion yuan. His suggested strategy: “If it opens higher tomorrow, close positions directly to take profits; if it opens lower then rallies, wait patiently—wrap up the trade within 3 days.” Institutional analysts are also deeply divided: Nomura Securities gives Changxin Technology a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a market cap of 7.76 trillion yuan. China’s Northeast Securities values Changxin Technology in a range of 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion yuan.
7 minutes ago
With 10 minutes remaining in the call auction, Changxin Technology’s price on trade.xyz plunged rapidly, briefly falling below $6.5.
Within less than 10 minutes of its call auction, Changxin Technology’s stock contract saw a rapid pullback on trade.xyz, briefly falling below $6.5 before trading at a current price of $6.5582. Over the past hour, the stock had briefly surged past $7.
China's A-share market has a new "stock king": Changxin Technology surges 471.59% on its debut, with market capitalization exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan.
When China's A-share market opened, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index declined 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index edged up 0.03%; ChangXin Technology surged 471.59% on its first day of listing, opening at 49.5 yuan per share with a corresponding market capitalization of 3.31 trillion yuan, making it the largest-cap stock on the A-share market.
7 minutes ago
Jiang Zhuoer: Changxin Technology’s opening price is too high, with no trading or arbitrage opportunities left.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP (LeiBit Mining Pool), posted that Changxin Technology’s opening price is too high, leaving no trading or arbitrage opportunities. Yesterday, he noted, “Changxin Storage will likely open higher, surge then pull back, hitting its all-time high on the first trading day. The perfect strategy is to buy at the A-share opening, sell during the midday Hong Kong market hype, then sell on A-share the next day while closing out the Hong Kong position. If you don’t hold a Hong Kong market position, once trapped by T+1 rules, you might end up like PetroChina, stuck for a lifetime.”
According to market data, Changxin Technology’s call auction is temporarily quoted at 49.5 yuan, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share, marking a 471.59% increase.
7 minutes ago
Changxin Technology's contract price once again breaks through the $7 mark on trade.xyz
Changxin Technology has entered the opening call auction on China's STAR Market, with its stock temporarily quoted at 49.5 yuan. Driven by this, Changxin Technology's stock contract has rallied again on trade.xyz, now trading at 7.2 U.S. dollars.
7 minutes ago
Summary of Views on Changxin Technology: There is a potential for a price surge on its listing day, and a market capitalization of RMB 3-4 trillion has become the consensus.
For today’s listing of Changxin Technology, crypto KOLs have shared divergent predictions. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, holds a relatively pessimistic view. He believes Changxin Technology will likely open higher, surge and then pull back, hitting its all-time high on the first trading day. The perfect playbook, he says, would be: buy on the A-share opening, sell during the midday hype-driven surge, then sell on A-shares the next day while closing out the hype position. If you don’t have a hype position, trapped by the T+1 trading rule, you might end up holding it for life just like PetroChina. Mango Labs founder @dov_wo is far more bullish: “I’ve gone long on Changxin Technology. In my view, Changxin offers a rare 1:5 risk-reward opportunity—downside of 20%, upside of 100%, a 1-to-5 payout ratio.” @dov_wo lists his bullish reasons as: low tradable share ratio, regulatory factors, and institutional optimism for its investment opportunity at a market cap below 3 trillion yuan. His suggested strategy: “If it opens higher tomorrow, close positions directly to take profits; if it opens lower then rallies, wait patiently—wrap up the trade within 3 days.” Institutional analysts are also deeply divided: Nomura Securities gives Changxin Technology a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a market cap of 7.76 trillion yuan. China’s Northeast Securities values Changxin Technology in a range of 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion yuan.
7 minutes ago
With 10 minutes remaining in the call auction, Changxin Technology’s price on trade.xyz plunged rapidly, briefly falling below $6.5.
Within less than 10 minutes of its call auction, Changxin Technology’s stock contract saw a rapid pullback on trade.xyz, briefly falling below $6.5 before trading at a current price of $6.5582. Over the past hour, the stock had briefly surged past $7.
XRP has already dipped as low as $1.01 during the ongoing bear market pullback, reviving talk that the token could briefly slip below a dollar before this cycle’s downturn runs its course.
A Familiar Pattern From the Last Cycle
One analyst pointed to XRP’s 2022 bear market as a reference point. XRP bottomed near $0.28 in June 2022, then retested that same support level roughly half a dozen times through January 2023, including a final touch at $0.32 before the market turned. The current setup, the analyst argues, looks similar, just at a higher price range this cycle.
Exchanges Keep Shutting Down
Bitmart just became the second crypto exchange to shut down in less than a week, following BitMEX’s earlier announcement. Bitmart’s native token, BMX, collapsed more than 60% after the shutdown news broke. A former major Bitcoin mining pool also filed for bankruptcy, reportedly holding just $1 million in assets against $500 million in liabilities.
Several digital asset treasury companies and at least one crypto hedge fund have also wound down operations in recent weeks. Analysts tracking the space describe this wave of collapses as a sign the market is clearing out excess leverage and weaker players, a pattern some say has historically preceded major bottoms in past cycles.
Institutions Are Pushing for Regulatory Clarity
Support for the CLARITY Act has grown among major financial institutions ahead of the Senate’s August 7 recess deadline. Both Charles Schwab and Fidelity have pushed the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, joined by the Fraternal Order of Police and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon, who has publicly called for the bill’s passage.
New Upgrades Coming to the XRP Ledger
Away from price action, the XRP Ledger has several technical upgrades moving through its amendment process. The XRP Ledger’s batched fix update has already passed its 80% vote requirement and is expected to go live within days. Additional upgrades under discussion include:
Batch transactions, allowing up to eight transactions to be bundled into a single atomic actionZero-knowledge proof privacy features, enabling confidential transfersSponsored fees and reserves, letting platforms cover the XRP wallet creation cost for new usersPermission delegation, allowing specific account permissions without full custody transferDynamic multi-purpose tokens, which can carry updatable fields after launchTwo additional features are drawing particular attention: a Single Asset Vault that would let users pool XRP, RLUSD, or other tokens together, and a companion lending protocol built on top of it, enabling fixed-term, uncollateralized loans intended for institutional use.
Why the XRP Ledger’s DEX Matters
With centralized exchanges continuing to shut down, some analysts are pointing to the XRP Ledger’s built-in decentralized exchange as a safeguard for token holders. Since the DEX operates independently of any single platform, users can continue trading and earning yield on XRP even if individual exchanges they relied on disappear.
Story Ends Here
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The XRP Ledger community is progressing work on multiple bug reports related to xrpld v3.2.0 with the goal of implementing the fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment on July 29. The problems, posted on the XRPLF GitHub, span from performance regressions to problems with synchronization, despite node operators’ ongoing migration to the latest release.
A Look At Newly Reported Issues On XRP Ledger v3.2.0 After upgrading from xrpld 3.1.3 to 3.2.0, it is reported that xrpld 3.2.0 is slowly lagging behind the XRP Ledger mainnet consensus. The nodes which were once updating the validated ledgers on the same hardware “now gradually fall behind the validated ledger.”
However, going back to the 3.1.3 version fixes the problem, according to the issue on GitHub. The reporter called it “a performance regression in 3.2.0.”
Another report claims that xrpld 3.2.0 on Windows 10 never progresses beyond the “connected” server state. Despite maintaining around 30 stable peers, loading a valid UNL with 35 trusted validators, and receiving validations and proposals, the node reportedly never reaches syncing or tracking.
But rather than joining the current ledger of the network, it continues to close its own ledgers since the network’s genesis. The reporter reported that this machine was previously able to run rippled without any problem and the problem only occurred after migration to xrpld.
One validator-related problem is that Ripple-backed XRP Ledger v3.2.0 version does not successfully download ledger data from peers on a mainnet validator. Moreover, it cannot move past “server_state: connected” to “syncing,” “tracking,” or “full” stage.
The reporter made the observation that the process of acquiring the ledger on xrpld 3.2.0 was slowed down relative to xrpld 3.1.3-1. It took around 13 minutes to complete from an empty datastore to full, so it is suspected a regression occurred.
Developers are also looking at a validator public keys report on the new XRP Ledger version. The service showed the public key of the new validator, but server_info still showed the public key of the validator that was migrated previously, resulting in a mismatch between the two.
Validator Issues Warning As July 29 Deadline Inches Closer Meanwhile, XRPL validator Vet encouraged users to upgrade their XRP Ledger nodes to 3.2.0. He wrote on X, “Happy Hump Day to everyone, especially those who have upgraded their XRP Ledger nodes to 3.2.0!” He added, “In less than 1 Week all nodes running XRPL versions below 3.2.0 will experience service interruptions. Please update your nodes, remind exchanges and projects to update as well!”
According to XRP Ledger Explorer, 499 of 843 nodes (59.69%) are now running version 3.2.0. Whilst, 303 nodes (36.24%) remain on version 3.1.3. Adoption of validators has surged to 65.77% with 98 validators upgraded. The fixCleanup3_2_0 amendment currently has 30 of 35 trusted validators in support (85.71%), and is set to become active on 29 July 2026 at 09:57 UTC, as long as it stays above the 80% threshold.
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee believes the recent wave of cryptocurrency exchange shutdowns could be a major indicator of an upcoming market bottom.
Lee wrote on X that "these things happen at the bottom of a cycle" while commenting on the recent industry mayhem.
His characteristically bullish remarks came after BitMart, one of the world's largest exchanges by trading volume, announced that it would be winding down its trading platform.
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Cryptocurrency giant BitMEX, which used to absolutely dominate BTC derivatives trading after introducing the revolutionary perpetual swap futures, has also confirmed plans to cease operations later this year.
The closures have sparked discussions about the sheer brutality of the bear market. Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has also opined that this could be a market bottom signal in a now-deleted tweet. He has also explained that acquiring smaller centralized exchanges is more challenging than purchasing most other businesses because buyers inherit potential security risks.
Bullish as ever on ETHDespite the market downturn and massive unrealised losses recorded by ETH treasury company BitMart, Lee is optimistic about the cryptocurrency's long-term outlook.
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Earlier this month, he argued that ETH is entering its "2.0" phase. He has compared its potential evolution to the transformational growth experienced by companies such as Amazon, Nvidia, and JPMorgan.
Lee said Ethereum could become the dominant settlement layer for both traditional finance and AI agents. In fact, his long-term target for ETH is $250,000.
Lee has also maintained that cryptocurrencies offer one of the most attractive risk-reward opportunities heading into the end of the year.
Recently, the prominent uber-bull has echoed Fidelity's call for Congress to approve the CLARITY Act. Failing to pass the bill could leave the United States at a competitive disadvantage.
AXON Finance, a renowned blockchain that develops an AI-based PayFi infrastructure, has announced an exclusive deployment. AXON Finance has deployed the native $AXON token on the Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM). As per AXON Finance’s official announcement, the development marks a significant move in the establishment of an efficient AI-based PayFi blockchain for global settlement. Hence, with the token launch on Ethereum, the platform attempts to utilize its established network, developer community, and interoperability.
$AXON Deployment on Ethereum Broadens DeFi Access AXON Finance’s EVM deployment fortifies its foundation for the expansion of DeFi services specified for machine-led transfers. The development signifies the start of a unique period of machine-based commerce. Additionally, the move is set to make $AXON widely accessible while permitting consumers, dApps, and developers to effectively interact with the respective token via Ethereum-compatible infrastructure and wallets.
As the biggest smart contract network, Ethereum provides a mature setting for DeFi, cross-platform integrations, and token liquidity. By unveiling the $AXON token on the EVM, the platform is elevating its position to leverage this comprehensive network while widening interaction within the Web3 network. Additionally, the project endeavors to back worldwide settlement infrastructure to deal with machine-to-machine transfers, AI-driven economic activity, and automatic financial operations.
Advancing AI-Led Machine Commerce with Cutting-Edge Infrastructure Simultaneously, AI’s rising adoption has enhanced interest in payment mechanisms that can handle independent agents and intuitive apps. Amid the growing integration of AI into business activities, decentralized networks, and digital commerce, blockchain ecosystems capable of driving automated financial activities are gaining more attention.
Additionally, AXON Finance is focused on addressing this exclusive market with the development of infrastructure for AI agents to securely initiate, complete, and verify transfers with the least human intervention. Overall, AXON Finance considers this move an early but crucial building block, enabling wider interoperability via the current dApps.
AUTHOR
Umair Younas is a cryptocurrency-related content writer linked with this work since 2019. Here, at Blockchainreporter, he serves as a news and article writer. He is a crypto, blockchain, NFTs, DeFi, and FinTech enthusiast. He has strong command over writing authentic reviews about brokers and exchanges and he has collaborated with our education team to write educational content as well. He has a dream to raise awareness among people about digital currencies. His works are well-researched and brimmed with information hence they provide fresh insights. Stay tuned to his posts if you want to stay up-to-date with the crypto-verse.
One of Ethereum's most closely watched on-chain indicators has undergone a dramatic reversal.
It was less than a year ago when the Ethereum validator exit queue had stretched for 45 days as millions of tokens waited to be unlocked from staking.
Today, that queue has completely emptied out, while the number of ETH actually staked continues to grow to a new record.
No One Wants to Unstake ETH Current data from ValidatorQueue shows that there are zero ETH waiting to be unstaked from the network. This means that if anyone decides to unstake their altcoin holdings, they can do so immediately, subject only to the protocol’s normal withdrawal process.
This is a significant turnaround from Q3 last year, when the exit queue had swelled to roughly 2.6 million coins. Validators were forced to wait up to 45 days before they could withdraw their holdings. At the time, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin defended the extensive period, arguing that it’s an important element of the network’s defense.
The narrative has completely flipped now. ValidatorQueue shows that over 2.5 million ETH is currently waiting to enter staking, translating into an estimated activation delay of nearly 44 days. Investors are willing to wait for a month and a half just to begin earning staking rewards on their ETH holdings.
This shifted imbalance suggests that investors are confident in Ethereum’s long-term outlook to remain strong despite the year-to-date price retracement. It also removes one of the most significant concerns from last year – that millions of staked ETH could suddenly flood exchanges if validators decide to cash out.
Ethereum (ETH) Staking on ValidatorQueue Record ETH Is Locked The broader staking picture has also continued improving as the total number of active validators securing the network has neared 900,000. Almost 41 million ETH is currently staked, which is equivalent to roughly 33.6% of the entire circulating supply. This is the highest percentage in the network’s history, and it means that every one out of three ETH is locked in staking rather than sitting on exchanges or actively circulating.
You may also like: Ethereum Bear Market Bottom Is In: Analyst Eyes $7K Long-Term Ethereum (ETH) Is Cheap, But Not at Bottom Yet: Analysts Ethereum’s Next Leg Higher? Historic Indicator and Whale Activity Align Tom Lee’s Bitmine remains a leader in this field, having staked over 4.9 million tokens through its institutional platform MAVAN.
Although staked ETH is not permanently removed from supply, it is generally considered less liquid because validators must go through Ethereum’s withdrawal process before they receive access to those holdings.
However, Merlijn The Trader reported a rather intriguing and unexpected twist. The record amount of staked ETH comes even as staking rewards are down to 2.62% per year from 3.05% and issuance has increased from 0.757% to 0.842%.
BMNR was trading at $15.80 on Friday, down substantially from last year’s high of $160. It remains slightly above the year-to-date low of $12.86.
BitMine Immersion Will Hit Its 6 Million Target SoonBitMine has accumulated over 5.77 million ETH coins, which are now valued at over $11 billion. This means that the company needs to buy 222,532 Ethereum coins, currently worth over $422 million. If the trend continues, it will hit its 6 million target in the coming months.
Completing the purchases will benefit BitMine’s shareholders in two main ways. First, it will likely conclude the dilution that has pushed its outstanding shares to 603 million from less than 239 million last year.
Second, the company will now transition from being a highly dilutive firm into a cash generator. It will achieve that through staking its Ethereum holdings, which will generate about 3% annual return. The estimated annual return will be about 180,000 coins, which are now valued at over $342 million.
Estimates by two analysts are that BitMine’s annual revenue will jump to $125 million this year. They also expect that the revenue will jump to $429 million next year.
For example, SharpLink (NASDAQ:SBET), a similar company, has already generated 23,918 ETH tokens in revenue since it started staking its tokens.
BitMine Has Become Highly UndervaluedMeanwhile, there are signs that the company is highly undervalued. It has a market capitalization of $9.52 billion, much lower than its Ethereum holdings of $11 billion.
Most notably, unlike Strategy (NASDAQ:MSTR), BitMine has no debt. Its only liability is from its preferred stock, which is expected to cost it almost $40 million a year.
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The centre of gravity for crypto regulation isn’t drifting eastward. It has moved. While Washington remains tangled in last‑minute lobbying over a landmark bill, several Asian governments are converting policy papers into infrastructure. The latest signal: Japan has formally elevated on‑chain finance to a national policy objective and is targeting Bitcoin exchange‑traded funds by 2028, according to the weekly roundup compiled by WuBlockchain. That target date isn’t a casual mention in a white paper; it gives market participants and institutions a hard deadline around which to plan products, custody, and liquidity.
On the same day, news arrived that South Korea is moving to expand institutional crypto access even as domestic exchange volumes crater. The combination is telling. A regime does not typically widen the on‑ramp for professional traders while retail activity dries up unless it is preparing the ground for a different kind of market structure. The draft framework suggests a shift from the retail‑driven speculation that has defined Korean crypto for years toward something more institutionally durable. In isolation, each headline might read like a routine policy update. Together, they reveal a coordinated‑looking acceleration across Northeast Asia that carries implications for institutional capital flows, stablecoin usage, and even the geopolitical architecture of on‑chain finance.
Japan’s 2028 ETF horizon is a liquidity signal Japan has not lacked ambition in digital assets, but until now the timeline for spot crypto ETFs was vague. Locking in 2028 changes the conversation. Custodians, authorised participants, and traditional exchanges can begin modelling cost structures and collateral arrangements years in advance. The country already has a regulated exchange framework and a Financial Services Agency that, while strict, has shown itself willing to license. What was missing was a concrete demand‑side event that would justify building the full ETF plumbing.
Placing Bitcoin ETFs inside a broader “on‑chain finance” national policy also frames crypto as more than a retail trading product. It signals to treasuries, asset managers, and even pension administrators that the government sees tokenised value transfer as a long‑term economic layer, not a speculative sideshow. The detail here matters: Japan is not simply allowing ETFs; it is embedding them in an industrial strategy. That changes how foreign institutions weight the risk of building exposure there, especially when other Asian markets are now moving in the same direction. For context, the global tokenisation push has already pushed real‑world assets past the $20 billion mark on‑chain, as a recent institutional roundup showed, and the infrastructure Japan is planning would plug directly into that trend.
South Korea’s volume collapse is forcing a rethink South Korean exchanges have seen volumes plunge, a sharp turn from the fevered altcoin speculation that once made the won one of the most traded fiat pairs globally. Regulators could have responded by tightening the screws further. Instead, the Financial Services Commission is drafting measures that would let institutions trade crypto directly, something that has been severely restricted. The move matches a broader pattern across Asia: governments are using exchange stress as an occasion to reset market structure rather than simply clamp down.
If institutional custody and prime brokerage‑style services become available in Seoul, the local market could begin to look less like a casino and more like a regional hub for managed crypto exposure. That would not only change liquidity profiles but also affect how global order flow is routed. Whether the FSC can push these changes through while retail sentiment is low remains an open question; unpopular policy that appears to favour institutions can attract political heat, and Korean crypto politics are famously noisy. Still, the direction of travel is hard to miss.
Sberbank’s trading infrastructure and Southeast Asia’s stablecoin race Further north, Russia’s Sberbank is constructing regulated crypto trading infrastructure, a development that fits into the wider effort to integrate digital assets into a financial system under sanctions pressure. The details remain thin, but any state‑controlled bank building trading rails signals that crypto is being treated as a legitimate component of cross‑border settlement, not just a retail outlet. Market participants will watch closely for which assets are listed first and whether the infrastructure connects to non‑Russian liquidity pools.
At the same time, the Philippines and Vietnam are advancing stablecoin and crypto‑market frameworks. Both economies have large remittance corridors and high mobile penetration, conditions that make dollar‑pegged tokens structurally attractive regardless of global narrative swings. The regulatory push here is not about speculative trading; it is about payments, savings, and settlement. If the Philippines moves from sandbox trials to a full licensing regime, the implications for domestic banks and fintechs would be immediate. It would also offer a regulatory template for other emerging markets watching stablecoin adoption with caution.
The bigger shift: Asia stops waiting for the West Something changed in 2025 and is accelerating in 2026. Asian regulators are no longer designing policy by watching Washington. They are writing their own rulebooks, and in some areas they are moving faster than either the U.S. or Europe. The contrast with the American legislative process is stark: a major U.S. crypto bill is facing a last‑minute kill attempt from banks just days before a Senate vote, as reported earlier this week. While that political drama plays out, Tokyo, Seoul, and Manila are setting deadlines, issuing licences, and building the rails.
This does not guarantee success. Timelines slip, political opposition builds, and institutional appetite can vanish if global liquidity tightens. What it does is create a path‑dependent reality. Once a country builds institutional crypto infrastructure, it is harder to reverse than a policy paper. Custody, settlement, and compliance layers take years to build. By announcing a 2028 ETF target, Japan is essentially telling the market that the build‑out has already begun. The real question is whether Western capital allocators will wait to see who wins the regulatory race or simply follow the infrastructure that is already being poured.
The institutional staking market already shows how quickly Asian‑linked infrastructure can attract global flows; a recent surge in Sui’s price was driven partly by institutional staking demand tied to a Nasdaq‑connected firm and a major fintech integration in Africa, as a market report observed. When regulatory clarity aligns with that kind of demand, the result is not a trickle of capital but a rerouting of existing flows. Asia’s policy blitz this week confirms that the rerouting has started.
AUTHOR
Kester is an experienced freelance content writer. His focus is primarily on blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. One might even refer to him as a "blockchain enthusiast." He has been following advancements in the crypto and blockchain area for several years, researching and writing his insights in the media. In addition to being a skilled content writer, Mushumir is also knowledgeable in SEO and digital marketing. He aspires to succeed as a content creator in the digital realm, dealing with customers in the finance and tech industries to generate traffic through engaging taglines and content. Mushumir enjoys traveling, reading, and playing cricket when he is not writing. He now works as a news and article writer for BlockchainReporter.
Charles Hoskinson, founder of IOHK and Cardano, highlighted the recent bridge attacks and security vulnerabilities, stating that the cryptocurrency industry needs to mature. Arguing that focusing solely on speed is the wrong approach to addressing security issues, Hoskinson emphasized the necessity of zero-knowledge (ZK) technologies and decentralized insurance systems.
Referring to the recent hack on a third-party bridge used on the Binance-Cardano line, Hoskinson stated that traditional software security models are insufficient against AI-powered cyberattacks.
He stated that instead of relying on people or multi-signature (multisig) structures, there should be a shift to ZK systems (e.g., the Midnight project) that rely on mathematics. He argued that for the sector to reach traditional financial levels, optional insurance pools (RWA-based) that can compensate users for their losses should be established.
Hoskinson announced that the Cardano ecosystem has successfully completed its v11 upgrade, stating that this update is the first major hard fork to be implemented entirely through on-chain community voting. The new update adds the Groth16 ZK proof-of-service verification infrastructure to the system. The next major update, Leios, aims to increase Cardano’s transaction speed by approximately 60 times. Hoskinson also stated that Cardano has completed its legislative and judicial-like governance mechanisms, and that a decentralized “executive authority” will be created to manage marketing, commercial adoption, and growth strategies.
Hoskinson harshly criticized Ethereum’s governance and financing model, drawing attention to Cardano’s treasury system. He stated that Cardano’s development is sustained thanks to its on-chain treasury, arguing that Ethereum’s lack of decentralized governance has led to it falling under the control of large corporations and oligarchic structures.
Hoskinson stated that Layer-2 (L2) solutions in the Ethereum ecosystem are “parasitic” and harm the main chain, adding that Cardano, on the other hand, provides ADA holders with multiple token returns through a “partnered” L2 model.
*This is not investment advice.
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China's A-share market has a new "stock king": Changxin Technology surges 471.59% on its debut, with market capitalization exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan.
When China's A-share market opened, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index declined 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index edged up 0.03%; ChangXin Technology surged 471.59% on its first day of listing, opening at 49.5 yuan per share with a corresponding market capitalization of 3.31 trillion yuan, making it the largest-cap stock on the A-share market.
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Jiang Zhuoer: Changxin Technology’s opening price is too high, with no trading or arbitrage opportunities left.
Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP (LeiBit Mining Pool), posted that Changxin Technology’s opening price is too high, leaving no trading or arbitrage opportunities. Yesterday, he noted, “Changxin Storage will likely open higher, surge then pull back, hitting its all-time high on the first trading day. The perfect strategy is to buy at the A-share opening, sell during the midday Hong Kong market hype, then sell on A-share the next day while closing out the Hong Kong position. If you don’t hold a Hong Kong market position, once trapped by T+1 rules, you might end up like PetroChina, stuck for a lifetime.”
According to market data, Changxin Technology’s call auction is temporarily quoted at 49.5 yuan, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share, marking a 471.59% increase.
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Changxin Technology's contract price once again breaks through the $7 mark on trade.xyz
Changxin Technology has entered the opening call auction on China's STAR Market, with its stock temporarily quoted at 49.5 yuan. Driven by this, Changxin Technology's stock contract has rallied again on trade.xyz, now trading at 7.2 U.S. dollars.
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Summary of Views on Changxin Technology: There is a potential for a price surge on its listing day, and a market capitalization of RMB 3-4 trillion has become the consensus.
For today’s listing of Changxin Technology, crypto KOLs have shared divergent predictions. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, holds a relatively pessimistic view. He believes Changxin Technology will likely open higher, surge and then pull back, hitting its all-time high on the first trading day. The perfect playbook, he says, would be: buy on the A-share opening, sell during the midday hype-driven surge, then sell on A-shares the next day while closing out the hype position. If you don’t have a hype position, trapped by the T+1 trading rule, you might end up holding it for life just like PetroChina. Mango Labs founder @dov_wo is far more bullish: “I’ve gone long on Changxin Technology. In my view, Changxin offers a rare 1:5 risk-reward opportunity—downside of 20%, upside of 100%, a 1-to-5 payout ratio.” @dov_wo lists his bullish reasons as: low tradable share ratio, regulatory factors, and institutional optimism for its investment opportunity at a market cap below 3 trillion yuan. His suggested strategy: “If it opens higher tomorrow, close positions directly to take profits; if it opens lower then rallies, wait patiently—wrap up the trade within 3 days.” Institutional analysts are also deeply divided: Nomura Securities gives Changxin Technology a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a market cap of 7.76 trillion yuan. China’s Northeast Securities values Changxin Technology in a range of 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion yuan.
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With 10 minutes remaining in the call auction, Changxin Technology’s price on trade.xyz plunged rapidly, briefly falling below $6.5.
Within less than 10 minutes of its call auction, Changxin Technology’s stock contract saw a rapid pullback on trade.xyz, briefly falling below $6.5 before trading at a current price of $6.5582. Over the past hour, the stock had briefly surged past $7.
