Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

GBP/USD rose to 1.3552 on Thursday, reaching its highest level since 29 August. The pound strengthened despite oil prices rising above 100 USD per barrel and a further escalation in Middle East tensions.

The main source of support for sterling remains a reassessment of the Bank of England’s monetary policy outlook. Investors do not expect the Bank to raise interest rates at its next meeting, but markets are pricing in at least two rate hikes by March next year, with about a 40% probability of a third increase. By comparison, investors currently expect only two rate hikes from the Federal Reserve over the same period.

The UK inflation backdrop is also reinforcing expectations of tighter monetary policy. Consumer price inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% the previous month. At the same time, rising oil and gas prices are putting additional pressure on the UK economy, which remains heavily dependent on imported energy.

However, the Bank of England is seeking to temper increasingly aggressive market expectations. Governor Andrew Bailey has stressed that further monetary tightening is not guaranteed. Elevated oil prices and fiscal risks ahead of the autumn Budget are adding to the uncertainty.

Against this backdrop, the pound may retain some support, but the scope for further gains remains limited for now.

GBP/USD technical analysis

On the H4 GBP/USD chart, the market has nearly reached the local target of the current upward move at 1.3566 and is forming a narrow consolidation range below this level. The range has so far expanded downwards to 1.3533.

A breakout below the range could open the way for a move lower towards 1.3527. If the price breaks above the range instead, a corrective move towards 1.3572 cannot be ruled out.

Further downside could bring the market towards the broader bearish target at 1.3452.

The MACD indicator supports this scenario. Its signal line remains above zero and points firmly upward.

On the H1 GBP/USD chart, the market has formed a tight consolidation range around 1.3523. The range has expanded downwards to 1.3520 and upwards to 1.3566.

The next expected move is a decline towards 1.3527.

The Stochastic oscillator also supports the short-term bearish scenario. Its signal line is above 80 and is pointing sharply downwards. In the short term, a move towards 20 is expected.

GBP/USD outlookSterling remains supported by expectations that the Bank of England could maintain a tighter monetary policy stance than the Federal Reserve over the coming months. Persistent inflationary pressures reinforce this view, although rising energy prices and uncertainty around the UK fiscal outlook remain significant risks.

From a technical perspective, GBP/USD is approaching key resistance around 1.3566–1.3572. Failure to break decisively above this zone could trigger a correction towards 1.3527, with 1.3452 emerging as the next downside target if selling pressure intensifies.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades sideways at around 1.3810 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The Loonie pair consolidates as investors await the United States (US) Producer Price Index (PPI) data for August, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

Investors will closely track the US PPI data as it is expected to influence the overall inflation outlook and eventually Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.

According to estimates, the US headline inflation at the factory level accelerated to 5.3% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 4.7% in July. The core PPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – is also expected to arrive higher at 4.6% YoY against the previous reading of 4.2%.

Signs of price pressures accelerating at the producer level would prompt expectations of interest rate hikes by the Fed in the near term.

Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates at the policy meeting next week are 61.2%.

Going forward, investors will also focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for August, which will be released on Friday.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, USD/CAD trades at 1.3808, holding below the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3854 and just under the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3818, which together cap the upside and reinforce a mildly bearish near-term tone.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.7 hovers below the neutral 50 line, suggesting weak upside momentum as the pair consolidates beneath these clustered resistances.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned at the 61.8% retracement at 1.3818, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.3854, with further barriers at the 50% retracement near 1.3901 and then 1.3983 and 1.4085, corresponding to the 38.2% and 23.6% retracement levels. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 78.6% retracement around 1.3701, ahead of a more significant floor at the 100% retracement near 1.3551, where buyers would be expected to show stronger interest if the decline extends.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (YoY) The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Read more.

The AUD/JPY cross loses momentum to near 110.75 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) amid rising expectations of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ). 

According to a Reuters poll, the BoJ is likely to hike interest rates to 1.25% at its September policy meeting and then to 1.75% in the second quarter (Q2) of 2027, earlier than previously thought. 

BoJ board member Kazuyuki Masu said on Thursday that the central bank may eventually be forced to raise interest rates rapidly if inflation accelerates, given the country's loose ‌financial conditions. 

Last week, BoJ board member Hajime Takata stated that the central bank could take a more aggressive approach than expected. Takata further stated that a 25-basis-point hike “is not necessarily set in stone,” and that generally speaking, back-to-back rate hikes would be a possibility, too.

BoJ urged to avoid fresh surprises after July carry shockDBS Group Research stresses that the BoJ must tread carefully at its upcoming meeting, warning that policymakers should remain “mindful of the market impact of large policy surprises,” especially after the “unexpected rate hike in July 2024 triggered a massive JPY carry-trade unwinding and jitters across global financial markets.” The bank cautions that “the risk of carry-trade unwinding and excessive market volatility should not be underestimated if the BoJ were to surprise markets this time,” underscoring the importance of a well-telegraphed and measured policy move.

Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY extends a corrective phase below the clustered resistance of the 100-day Moving Average (MA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period simple moving average (SMA). This positioning keeps the near-term bias bearish, with price holding closer to the lower Bollinger band, while the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 33 suggests weak, oversold-leaning momentum that so far fails to trigger a meaningful rebound.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the August 10 low of 111.63, en route to the August 20 low of 112.52. The critical hurdle is located at 113.10, representing the 100-day MA and the Bollinger midline. The upper Bollinger band near 115.60 acting as a more distant cap. 

On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at 110.60 offers the first notable support. A sustained break beneath this level would expose the 110.00 psychological level, followed by August 3 low of 109.24. 

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 532.39 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 531.39 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,209.49 per tola from SAR 6,197.99 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

532.39

10 Grams

5,323.61

Tola

6,209.49

Troy Ounce

16,559.20

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 520.78 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 519.70 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold increased to AED 6,074.15 per tola from AED 6,061.65 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

520.78

10 Grams

5,207.70

Tola

6,074.15

Troy Ounce

16,198.15

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 576.22 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 574.89 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,720.78 per tola from MYR 6,705.37 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

576.22

10 Grams

5,762.07

Tola

6,720.78

Troy Ounce

17,920.42

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The AUD/USD pair holds steady above the 0.7200 mark through the Asians session on Thursday and remains close to its highest level since May 14, touched earlier this week. Traders seem hesitant and opt to wait for the key US inflation data for more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path, which will drive the US Dollar (USD) and provide a fresh impetus to the currency pair.

In the meantime, USD bulls remain on the defensive amid a hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ)-inspired rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY), acting as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. Furthermore, rising bets for another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) later this month continue to support the Australian Dollar (AUD) and back the case for further near-term gains.

Meanwhile, traders have been pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at its upcoming policy meeting on September 15-16. Apart from this, a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran offers some support to the safe-haven Greenback, which, in turn, holds back AUD/USD bulls from positioning for any further appreciating move.

From a technical perspective, the recent move higher from the August monthly low has been along an upward-sloping channel. This points to a well-established uptrend and suggests that the path of least resistance for the AUD/USD pair remains to the upside. However, mixed momentum oscillators might keep spot prices capped near the top boundary of the aforementioned channel.

In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 58, suggesting firm but not overstretched buying pressure. In contrast, the slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line hints at a modest loss of upside momentum rather than a clear reversal. However,  a break above the channel resistance at 0.7260 should pave the way for an extension of the uptrend.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-period SMA around 0.7172, ahead of the channel floor near 0.7161, where a drop below would undermine the current bullish structure and signal a deeper corrective phase within the broader advance.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

RBA FAQs The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.

Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.

Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers after a modest Asian session dip to sub-$4,400 levels. The upside, however, seems limited as traders might refrain from placing directional bets ahead of US inflation figures. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report will be published later this Thursday, while the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due on Friday. The key data will provide more cues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy path, which, in turn, should influence US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide fresh impetus to the non-yielding bullion.

In the meantime, markets are pricing in around a 60% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs at its upcoming policy meeting on September 15-16. The bets were lifted by the better-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report last Friday. Moreover, inflation risks stemming from persistently higher energy prices underpin prospects for immediate Fed tightening. In fact, crude oil prices touched a fresh three-month high earlier today as a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran keeps the geopolitical risk premium firmly in play.

In the latest developments, Iran attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US announced it had sunk five Iranian oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman and near Kharg Island. This adds to concerns about a prolonged disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East and continues to support the black liquid, which further backs the case for a more hawkish stance from other major central banks. In fact, traders have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) later today and by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) at its September 17–18 meeting.

Moreover, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also weighing a potential rate increase later this month. Meanwhile, US bond yields remain elevated amid the disappointment from the US Treasury's announcement that it would buy back up to $6 billion in 10-year to 20-year maturities, up from $2 billion previously. Media reports, however, suggested expectations had been for at least $10 billion. However, a hawkish BoJ-inspired rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY) keeps USD bulls on the back foot, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor that continues to act as a tailwind for the Gold price.

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Technical AnalysisOn the 4-hour chart, the precious metal holds above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $4,362 but remains below the 100-period SMA at about $4,491, leaving the broader tone neutral to slightly capped. Moreover, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at roughly $4,427 sits just overhead as immediate resistance. The positive move still appears tentative beneath this nearby ceiling despite a modestly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 51.

Sustained strength above the said barrier, however, should pave the way for additional gains to the 100-period SMA near $4,491, with the 23.6% retracement up at $4,530 acting as a higher hurdle if buyers gain traction. On the downside, the $4,362 region, where the 200-period SMA aligns above the 50% retracement near $4,344, offers initial support, with deeper cushions at the 61.8% level around $4,260 and the 78.6% retracement near $4,141 if selling pressure resumes.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Gold is building on the previous recovery from one-week lows near $4,350 early Thursday, stretching beyond $4,400. Gold buyers now look forward to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due Thursday and Friday, respectively, for a sustained turnaround.

Gold recaptures $4,400, awaits US inflationGold is finding continued support from the United States (US) Treasury Department’s measure to rescue the bond market.

The Treasury Department said Wednesday it will raise its bond buybacks to up to $6 billion for an operation due for Thursday. Future operations will be at least $4 billion.

Despite the announcement, US Treasury bond yields rose further but were volatile, with long-dated securities increasing as much as 5 basis points each before easing.

However, the US Treasury’s intervention, aimed at keeping bond markets functioning, was enough to revive buying interest in the non-yielding bullion.

Gold also takes advantage of growing fiscal tensions in the US as longer-dated Treasury yields continue their northward trajectory, which fails to impress US Dollar (USD buyers.

Further, the Greenback also faces headwinds from renewed expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold key interest rates steady at its monetary policy meeting next week.

“About 70% of economists, 65 of 93, in the September 4-9 Reuters poll expect the Federal Funds Rate to remain in the 3.50%-3.75% range next week. That reading is down from 90% in August,” per Reuters.

Gold appears a clear winner here, sustaining its recovery momentum at the expense of the USD.  

However, rising Oil prices amid widening Middle East conflict could temper Gold’s latest move higher. Therefore, Gold traders eagerly await the US inflation readings to determine whether the energy-driven inflation impact is substantial enough for the Fed to raise rates next week.

The headline annual PPI is set to rise by 5.3% in August versus 4.7% in July, while core inflation is seen picking up to 4.6% in the same period from 4.2% prior.

According to TD Securities, precious metals are effectively in a holding pattern as markets look to upcoming US inflation figures, with the bank noting that “precious metals wait on inflation data.” Strategists point out that the complex “has been able to maintain strength, even as the market grapples with the near-term increase in Fed hike probabilities,” underscoring the resilience of gold in particular. TD Securities argues that “inflation data is the next big catalyst,” warning that “an upside surprise would embolden Fed pricing and weigh on the yellow metal,” whereas “less worrisome inflation could ultimately be the first catalyst to see the next wave of discretionary positioning start to enter the market.”

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,412.18. The metal holds a bullish near-term bias as price remains above the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,267 and $4,340, suggesting underlying dip-buying interest despite recent consolidation off the highs. However, the 21-day SMA near $4,463 acts as the first cap, while the 200-day SMA around $4,538 sits higher up as a broader trend hurdle. The Relative Strength Index (14) at about 51 is slightly above neutral, hinting at modest positive momentum rather than an overextended move.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 21-day SMA around $4,463, with the 200-day SMA near $4,538 acting as a secondary barrier if buyers regain traction. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA close to $4,340, with additional protection from the 50-day SMA near $4,267, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand to maintain the prevailing constructive structure.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.7766 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7769 and 6.7074 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Gold price (XAU/USD) recovers to near $4,400, snapping the three-day losing streak during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal gains ground amid a weaker US Dollar (USD). Traders will closely monitor the key US inflation data later this week, which could provide fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next interest rate decision. 

Reuters reported on Wednesday that Iran said it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the US sank five Iranian oil tankers, in the biggest wave of attacks on shipping by both sides since the ‌start of the six-month-old war.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East and rising oil prices have raised inflation concerns and strengthened the case for the US central bank to hike rates at its policy meeting next week. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not pay interest, making yield-bearing assets relatively more attractive.

Traders brace for the US Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Thursday and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data on Friday. These reports could offer some hints on whether the Fed will hike interest rates to contain price pressures.

The market is pricing in about a 60% chance of an interest rate hike at the central bank’s policy ‌meeting next week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Gold stays data sensitive as US inflation looms largeAccording to TD Securities, “a stronger jobs report initially weighed on gold,” but subsequent “less hawkish Fedspeak and currency interventions then cooled the narrative,” underlining that the market now has “an elevated sensitivity to incoming data and headlines.” The bank argues that “inflation data is the next big catalyst,” warning that “an upside surprise would embolden Fed pricing and weigh on the yellow metal,” whereas “less worrisome inflation could ultimately be the first catalyst to see the next wave of discretionary positioning start to enter the market.”

Technical Analysis: Gold remains bullish above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds above the 100-day moving average (MA), keeping a constructive near-term bias while price consolidates between the Bollinger Bands’ lower band and the middle band resistance. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 50.65 is neutral, suggesting momentum has cooled after recent gains but not yet reversed decisively.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the Bollinger middle band around $4,465, with a break higher exposing the upper band near $4,675 as the next hurdle. On the downside, immediate protection emerges from the 100-day MA at $4,345, ahead of stronger structural support at the Bollinger lower band around $4,255, where buyers would be expected to reappear on deeper pullbacks.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

GBP/JPY falls for the third straight day, but it fails to register a lower low, an indication that buyers are stepping in but lack the strength to push the exchange rate past Wednesday’s opening price, leaving the pair near this week's lows. The cross-pair trades at 208.05, down 0.22%.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookFrom a market structure perspective, the GBP/JPY is downward biased after reaching the lowest low in the year of 207.10 on September 8, which could open the door for further downside. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), turned oversold. Yet, due to the speed of the decline, the cross remains downward-biased unless the RSI clears the 30 level.

On the downside, the first support is 208.00. A breach of the latter will expose the YTD low of 207.10. Once hurdled, the next stop is the December 16, 2025, low of 206.78, followed by 206.50 and 206.00.

For a bullish reversal, the GBP/JPY must reclaim the September 8 high of 209.08. Once done, this could form a ‘bullish engulfing’ chart pattern, indicating that buyers have overtaken sellers. In that scenario, the next stop would be 210.00, followed by the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 213.09, which would emerge as the next ceiling level.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.20%-1.55%-0.20%-0.27%0.70%0.13%EUR0.16%-0.03%-1.38%-0.04%-0.10%0.89%0.29%GBP0.20%0.03%-1.44%0.00%-0.06%0.90%0.34%JPY1.55%1.38%1.44%1.45%1.36%2.36%1.75%CAD0.20%0.04%-0.01%-1.45%-0.03%0.92%0.33%AUD0.27%0.10%0.06%-1.36%0.03%0.97%0.41%NZD-0.70%-0.89%-0.90%-2.36%-0.92%-0.97%-0.61%CHF-0.13%-0.29%-0.34%-1.75%-0.33%-0.41%0.61% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The New Zealand Dollar extends its losses against the US Dollar, down 0.30% as the Greenback gets underpinned by rising US Treasury yields, with the 10-year reaching its highest level since 2023. The NZD/USD trades at 0.5835.

NZD/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookPrice action shows the NZD/USD pair is poised to consolidate further, within familiar levels, with the exchange rate seesawing around the confluence of the 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), each at around 0.5848. 0.5843 and 0.5854, respectively.

However, from a momentum standpoint, further downside is seen as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish.

On the downside, the NZD/USD first line of defense is a support trendline passing through around 0.5810-0.5820. Once cleared, the 0.5800 figure emerges as the next support level. A breach of the latter, and of NZD/USD, could extend its losses towards the July 29 swing low of 0.5761, before printing a leg lower to the 0.5700 mark.

Meanwhile, for a bullish reversal, NZD/USD must climb above the SMA confluence. Once done, the next resistance is the September 4 high of the day (HOD) at 0.5903. Up next lies the psychological 0.5950 and 0.6000.

NZD/USD Price Chart – Daily

NZD/USD daily chart New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.05%-0.03%-0.25%0.18%0.00%0.26%0.10%EUR0.05%0.05%-0.20%0.23%0.05%0.33%0.16%GBP0.03%-0.05%-0.21%0.21%0.04%0.30%0.15%JPY0.25%0.20%0.21%0.43%0.24%0.50%0.35%CAD-0.18%-0.23%-0.21%-0.43%-0.18%0.09%-0.07%AUD-0.00%-0.05%-0.04%-0.24%0.18%0.27%0.12%NZD-0.26%-0.33%-0.30%-0.50%-0.09%-0.27%-0.18%CHF-0.10%-0.16%-0.15%-0.35%0.07%-0.12%0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Silver climbed $2.16 as dollar selling outweighed higher Treasury yields, putting $71.18 in play before PPI, CPI and the Fed meeting.

EUR/USD struggles to extend its earlier gains on Wednesday as the US Treasury’s bond-buyback announcement sparks a brief bout of volatility, pushing Treasury yields higher and helping the US Dollar (USD) trim its losses.

Traders also avoid placing aggressive bullish bets ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision on Thursday. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1640 as it attempts to secure a break above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1633.

Strategists at Scotiabank note that policy expectations remain firmly supportive ahead of this week’s ECB decision, with “a 25bpt rate hike…fully expected at Thursday’s meeting, and another 25bpts…priced in for December.” They “anticipate a hawkish hike tomorrow, as President Lagarde unveils the latest forecast and signals ongoing concern about upside risk,” helping to underpin the recent recovery in EUR/USD.

Scotiabank describes the tone as “neutral/bullish,” with the latest bounce in the Euro “tentative and negligible, but there nonetheless as spot tests marginal one-week highs in the mid-1.16s.” Momentum indicators are also improving, with the bank highlighting that “the RSI is in the upper 50 area and climbing, leaning toward further near-term gains.”

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD retains a constructive bias, with the pair holding above the 50-day and 100-day SMAs and marginally above the 200-day SMA. Price has formed a sequence of higher highs and higher lows since recovering from below 1.1400 in late July and briefly climbing above 1.1700 on August 21. The latest price action suggests that another higher low may be developing above the 100-day SMA, although buyers still need a decisive break above the 200-day average to strengthen the bullish outlook.

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has steadied above the neutral 50 level and points higher near 58, indicating healthy but not excessive bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly below zero, although the fading red histogram suggests that bearish pressure is easing.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 1.1700 horizontal barrier, followed by a stronger hurdle around 1.1800. On the downside, the 200-day SMA near 1.1633 provides immediate support, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.1561 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1522. A deeper decline could expose the 1.1400 structural support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances on Wednesday during the North American session, up 0.15% against the US Dollar (USD) to 1.3560, with no clear catalyst, as the conflict in the Middle East prolongs and traders brace for US inflation data. Read More...

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.3550, upside bias intact while holding above 100-day SMAThe GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3550 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. UK Chancellor John Healey unveiled a series of measures designed to encourage economic growth and draw more private investment into the UK. This move provides some support to the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD). Read More...

British Pound holds steady near mid-1.3500s vs USD as traders eye UK GDP and US inflationThe GBP/USD pair trades with a positive bias near mid-1.3500s during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains confined within the previous day's broader range. Meanwhile, the downside seems limited as traders await the release of monthly UK GDP and US inflation figures before placing fresh directional bets. Read More...

By

:

Published: Sep 9, 2026, 17:02 GMT+00:00

$1.16399

+0.10%

U.S. dollar is losing some ground as traders worry that debt markets get out of control.

EUR/USD

+0.10%

EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD

+0.12%

GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD

+0.19%

USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY

+0.03%

USD/JPY Forecast

U.S. Dollar Remains Under Pressure As Bessent Raises Bond Buybacks To $6 Billion

DXY 090926 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground as traders focus on Treasury’s decision to boost bond buybacks to $6 billion. Bessent continues his attempts to put pressure on yields, but they are rising amid rally in the oil markets. Worries about long-term sustainability of U.S. finances also push yields higher.

The yield of 10-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.85% level, while the yield of 30-year Treasuries tested the psychologically important 5.30% level.

U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle below the support level at 98.60 – 98.75. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 98.60 level, it will head towards the next support at 97.70 – 97.85. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in the near term.

EUR/USD Moves Higher Ahead Of Tomorrow’s ECB Decision EUR/USD 090926 4h Chart EUR/USD gained some ground as traders prepared for ECB Interest Rate Decision, which will be released tomorrow. Analysts expect that ECB will raise the interest rate from 2.4% to 2.65% due to rising oil prices.

The European Central Bank is forced to raise rates as the EU economy will face inflationary pressure due to high energy prices. It remains to be seen whether winter will be cold, but energy prices will likely stay high anyway.

If EUR/USD climbs above the 1.1650 level, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700.

GBP/USD Remains Stuck Near Strong Resistance Level GBP/USD 090926 4h Chart GBP/USD remains stuck near the resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. Traders are not ready to buy U.S. dollar amid rising Treasury yields. UK bond yields have  also settled near multi-year highs as traders worry about the situation in the UK economy.

If GBP/USD manages to settle above the resistance at 1.3550 – 1.3565, it will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3635 – 1.3650 range. On the support side, a move below the 50 MA at 1.3528 will push GBP/USD towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.3470 – 1.3485 range.

USD/CAD Rebounds Above 1.3800

USD/CAD 090926 4h Chart USD/CAD gains ground despite the strong rally in precious metals markets, which was triggered by Treasury’s decision to boost bond buybacks. Gold climbed above the $4400 level, while silver rallied above $67.50. Other commodity-related currencies were mixed in today’s trading session.

The nearest resistance level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.3825 – 1.3840 range. In case USD/CAD manages to settle above 1.3840, it will head towards the next resistance level at 1.3900 – 1.3915.

USD/JPY Tests The 153.00 Level USD/JPY 090926 4h Chart USD/JPY pulls back as traders focus on U.S. bond buybacks. Recent interventions, expectations of a rate hike from BoJ, and problems in U.S. debt market serve as positive catalysts for the Japanese yen.

The nearest support level for USD/JPY is located in the 152.50 – 153.00 range. A successful test of this level will push USD/JPY towards the support at 149.50 – 150.00. RSI has recently moved back into moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

Related Articles

Fed Hike Odds Near 60% as EUR/USD, USD/JPY Face VolatilityUSD/JPY Hits Seven-Month Low as Traders Await US Inflation and BoJ Rate HikeUS Dollar Price Forecast: Dollar Weakens as ECB Hike and U.S. CPI Take Focus

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

Latest news and analysis

The next week is massive as US inflation data leads into an FOMC rate decision with high probability of a rate hike. Higher U.

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note GBP/USD is steady after reaching a one-week high, with the British Pound (GBP) supported by rising Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations and sensitivity to higher Oil prices. Markets see little chance of a move next week but price incremental hikes into year-end. They highlight a clear bullish trend from June, with resistance near 1.3650 and support around 1.3480.

Pound holds bullish trend despite fiscal risks"The pound is also entering Wednesday’s NA session unchanged vs. the USD after – also – hitting a fresh one week high. As with the EUR and the ECB, we note the GBP and BoE’s greater sensitivity to oil price gains as policymakers seek to achieve their price stability mandates."

"The short-term rates market is still pricing very little chance of a policy adjustment at next Thursday’s meeting, but pricing about 17bpts of tightening for November 5th and a cumulative 32bpts by December 17th."

"Fiscal risk remains elevated as market participants look to the release of the UK budget in late October. In terms of data, we continue to note the absence of any material releases ahead of Friday’s trade and industrial production figures."

"Neutral/bullish – the RSI is marginally above 50 but showing fractional gains reflecting the latest recovery in spot over the past week or so. The magnitudes are minimal."

"The daily chart reveals a clear bullish trend from June with a sequence of higher lows and higher highs. We note the absence of any material resistance ahead of 1.3650 and see support closer to 1.3480."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

EURGBP jumps 0.3% on Wednesday as Euro gets inflated by weaker dollar and expectations that the ECB will join the trend of policy tightening by the major central banks, while the Bank of England is likely to keep more cautious approach and probably keep rates on hold that keeps sterling in defense.

Fresh strength retraces over 61.8% of 0.8607/0.8564 pullback that partially offsets negative signal from bull-trap pattern on daily chart (failure to sustain gains above 0.8600 – Fibo 61.8% of 0.8689/0.8454 / 100DMA).

Bounce and likely repeated close above daily Ichimoku cloud (0.8572) supports the notion, but sustained break above 0.8600 pivot is still required to bring bulls fully in play and generate initial signal of bullish continuation of rally from 0.8454 (July 15 low).

Predominantly bullish daily technical studies, particularly while the price holds above daily cloud top, supports positive near-term outlook.

Res: 0.8600; 0.8617; 0.8634; 0.8651
Sup: 0.8572; 0.8564; 0.8547; 0.8528

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

Euro dollar technical analysis across four time frames, where the recovery is holding and the level that would break the trend. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the euro dollar chart structure from the monthly down to the four hour time frame.

Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Wednesday and trades around $67.50 at the time of writing, up 2.64% on the day. The white metal benefits from broad weakness in the US Dollar (USD), but its recovery faces a challenging environment for precious metals as surging energy prices revive inflation concerns and strengthen expectations of higher US interest rates.

The US Dollar remains under pressure, notably due to a sharp appreciation of the Japanese Yen (JPY). The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, falls around 0.25% on Wednesday and trades near 98.61, close to its lowest level since August 21. A weaker US Dollar tends to support Silver by making the precious metal cheaper for investors using other currencies.

This support is nevertheless offset by the sharp rise in Oil prices amid escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The US military says it destroyed five Iranian Oil tankers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attempted to attack a US Navy warship. Tehran responded by targeting several American vessels and Oil tankers, while concerns over the security of the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated. Persistently elevated energy prices could sustain inflationary pressures and force major central banks to maintain tighter monetary policies.

In the United States, these developments are also fueling expectations of further tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently price in around a 62% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. This prospect represents a headwind for Silver, a non-yielding asset that tends to become relatively less attractive when interest rates rise.

US Treasury yields also reflect these expectations. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield trades around 4.80%, near its highest level since November 2023. The combination of elevated yields and expectations of tighter monetary policy therefore limits the metal's ability to fully benefit from the weaker US Dollar.

On the economic front, Automatic Data Processing (ADP) data shows that US private employers added an average of 12K jobs per week during the period ending August 22, compared with a downwardly revised 10K previously. Investors now turn their attention to the Producer Price Index (PPI), due on Thursday, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), scheduled for Friday. Hotter-than-expected inflation figures could reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike and put renewed pressure on Silver.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Pretty Good Longer-term Outlook for Silver Overall, though, when I look at this, I cannot help but think the market is just on pins and needles, waiting to see what the next shot across the bow is, which might be literal if we are talking about tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as energy prices are driving up inflation expectations.

The longer-term outlook for silver is actually pretty good. It is part of the electrification and AI trade as far as the build-out is concerned, and there is obvious demand from there. But at the same time, it is sensitive to interest rates, and that is part of what the drag has been.

For myself, I am looking at this as a short-term, choppy, range-bound market, with a bit of the occasional volatility out there.

EUR/GBP trades in a narrow range on Wednesday as buyers struggle to extend Tuesday’s rebound. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8599 limits the immediate upside, although momentum indicators retain a modest bullish bias. At the time of writing, the cross trades around 0.8588, little changed on the day.

The fundamental outlook leans to the upside. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point interest rate hike from the European Central Bank (ECB) on Thursday, which would be its second increase this year, after higher Oil prices intensified inflation pressures across the Eurozone. These expectations lend support to the Euro (EUR).

Meanwhile, the Bank of England (BoE) is widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged when it meets on September 17, offering little support to the British Pound (GBP). Concerns over the UK’s fiscal position also weigh on sentiment toward the currency.

Analysts at Rabobank acknowledge that “higher oil prices will feed through into more inflation potential,” but note that, “to date, it would appear that Governor Bailey has been confident that the cyclical loosening in the UK labour market means that second-order inflation effects will be avoided and that disinflation will persist.”

Rabobank also highlights that the July 30 policy meeting was “more hawkish than expected,” with “3 members of the MPC voting for an immediate rate rise.” Even so, they argue that “there is a high bar for the doves on the committee to vote for a tightening in policy,” suggesting that a broader shift toward hikes remains unlikely for now.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, EUR/GBP holds a mild bullish bias above the rising 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8553 and the ascending trend-line support near 0.8570. However, the 100-day SMA at 0.8600 and the 200-day SMA at 0.8649 limit the upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands around 58, indicating positive momentum without overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains slightly positive.

A break above the 100-day SMA could bring the 200-day SMA into focus. On the downside, the trend line near 0.8570 offers initial support, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.8553. A clear move below these levels would expose the 0.8500 and 0.8450 horizontal support levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.20%-0.17%-0.51%-0.10%-0.08%0.04%-0.25%EUR0.20%0.05%-0.30%0.09%0.12%0.25%-0.04%GBP0.17%-0.05%-0.33%0.06%0.09%0.22%-0.07%JPY0.51%0.30%0.33%0.40%0.43%0.52%0.27%CAD0.10%-0.09%-0.06%-0.40%0.02%0.15%-0.14%AUD0.08%-0.12%-0.09%-0.43%-0.02%0.13%-0.14%NZD-0.04%-0.25%-0.22%-0.52%-0.15%-0.13%-0.27%CHF0.25%0.04%0.07%-0.27%0.14%0.14%0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Wednesday, snapping a three-day losing streak, but struggles to extend its recovery. Tit-for-tat attacks between the United States (US) and Iran push Oil prices higher, while a rebound in the US Dollar (USD) keeps the metal below the $4,400 mark after touching a one-week low near $4,341 earlier in the day.

The US military said it destroyed five Iranian crude Oil carriers after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) attempted to strike a US Navy warship. Tehran responded by targeting two American vessels, eight Oil tankers and another 10 ships accused of trying to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC also said it attacked a US military base in Jordan.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades around $93.00 per barrel, near its highest level since June 8, and has gained about 4.25% so far this week. Markets are concerned that higher energy costs will keep inflation elevated and force major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to raise interest rates. Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on Gold by increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets.

The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield trades around 4.81%, near its highest level since November 2023. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently price in around a 60% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike at next week’s meeting.

Traders now look ahead to this week’s US inflation data, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) due on Thursday and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for Friday. The figures could bolster the case for a Fed rate hike at its September 15-16 meeting.

Hawkish Fed expectations and elevated Treasury yields help the US Dollar avoid a steeper decline. The Greenback has been under pressure from a sharp rally in the Japanese Yen (JPY), with USD/JPY hovering near 153.50, around levels last seen in February.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.80 after touching an intraday low of 98.62, its weakest level since August 21.

Looking ahead, Gold is likely to stay sensitive to Fed rate expectations and developments in the Middle East. On Wednesday’s US economic calendar, traders await the ADP Employment Change 4-week average and details of the US Treasury’s expanded bond-buyback program taking effect at 15:00 GMT.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD holds above key 200-period SMA

On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD holds above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,356, suggesting buyers remain active on dips. However, the 50-period SMA at $4,415 caps the immediate upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 47, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, pointing to weak momentum and a broadly neutral near-term bias.

On the upside, the 50-period SMA at $4,415 acts as the first resistance, followed by the 100-period SMA around $4,489. A break above these levels could bring the $4,550 horizontal barrier into focus, followed by $4,700.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-period SMA near $4,356. A clear break below this level could intensify selling pressure and open the door toward the $4,200 support zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.