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The USD/CAD pair remains on the back foot through the early European session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have stalled this week's goodish rebound from the 1.4000 psychological mark, or over a one-month low. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through selling and currently trade around the 1.4100 mark, down only 0.05% for the day.

Hopes that the US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations keep a lid on the US Dollar's (USD) four-day-old rally. Furthermore, rallying crude oil prices offer some support to the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a headwind for the USD/CAD pair. However, bets that the US central bank will hike interest rates in 2026 amid concerns about energy-driven inflation help limit the downside for the Greenback amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran.

From a technical perspective, the overnight strength beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent pullback from the year-to-date high, touched in June, favors bullish traders. The USD/CAD pair now awaits a move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart before the next leg up. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60 hints at a constructive bias, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows the line above its signal with a modest positive histogram.

Improving momentum indicators together suggest bullish pressure that has yet to clear overhead structure. A sustained strength above the 200-period SMA at 1.4104 should pave the way for additional gains to the 50.0% retracement at 1.4128 and the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.4158, with 1.4200 and 1.4253 marking deeper Fibonacci barriers into the recent swing high.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. retracement at 1.4062, ahead of the structural floor near 1.4004. A convincing break below these levels would undermine the current consolidation and reopen a broader corrective phase.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Canadian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies this week. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.14%0.55%0.47%0.59%-0.43%0.24%0.49%EUR-0.14%0.41%0.26%0.45%-0.58%0.09%0.34%GBP-0.55%-0.41%-0.15%0.03%-0.98%-0.31%-0.03%JPY-0.47%-0.26%0.15%0.21%-0.85%-0.27%0.13%CAD-0.59%-0.45%-0.03%-0.21%-0.98%-0.48%-0.06%AUD0.43%0.58%0.98%0.85%0.98%0.68%0.95%NZD-0.24%-0.09%0.31%0.27%0.48%-0.68%0.29%CHF-0.49%-0.34%0.03%-0.13%0.06%-0.95%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate slipped to a one-month low on Tuesday after stronger-than-expected New Zealand inflation reinforced expectations for further Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate hikes.

At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading around NZ$2.2939, down approximately 0.2% on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.295692 (+0.02%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.956495 (+0.29%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.5827 (-0.43%)

DAILY RECAP:

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appreciated through Tuesday's Asian trading session as markets digested New Zealand's latest consumer price index.

According to the CPI figures published by Stats NZ, annual inflation accelerated to 4.1% in the second quarter, up from 3.1% previously and above market forecasts of 4.0%.

Perhaps more importantly, the Q2 inflation print also outpaced the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s previous 3.9% forecast.

This prompted NZD investors to increase their bets on further monetary tightening after the RBNZ's recent decision to lift the Official Cash Rate to 2.5%.

However, the ‘Kiwi’ was unable to sustain its best levels for long, with NZD exchange rates falling back by the start of the European session as market risk appetite was sapped by the continued escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

Meanwhile, trade in the Pound (GBP) was broadly flat on Tuesday as the UK's latest jobs report helped to calm concerns over turbulence in the UK bond market at the start of the session.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that unemployment held steady at 4.9% in May, against forecasts it would rise to 5.0%, while employment growth accelerated from 100,000 to 147,000 against consensus estimates it would drop to 85,000.

The surprisingly robust jobs data was welcomed by GBP investors as it increased the chances of the Bank of England (BoE) tightening monetary policy later in the year.

However, Sterling's upside potential remained capped after the start of Andy Burnham's premiership triggered a rise in UK gilt yields as he signalled his willingness to exercise flexibility while still adhering to fiscal rules.

Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Slowdown in UK Inflation to Sap Sterling? Looking ahead, the next catalyst for the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate will be the UK's latest inflation figures.

Economists expect UK inflation to have cooled further in June, with Sterling likely to come under pressure if the data weakens expectations for further Bank of England interest rate hikes.

Meanwhile, the ‘Kiwi’ could face headwinds if New Zealand's latest credit card spending figures point to a slowdown in consumer spending last month.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) hovers near a multi-decade high at around 163.24 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Wednesday. The USD/JPY pair reflects significant strength as the Japanese currency underperforms due to surging Oil prices.

Oil prices have increased further as global energy supply risks have escalated due to the closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis.

Higher oil prices bode poorly for currencies from economies, such as Japan, which rely heavily on energy imports.

Sheer weakness in the Japanese Yen has increased hopes of Japan’s intervention in the FX market. Earlier in the day, Japan’s Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama said that the authorities will take necessary steps on the foreign exchange if necessary. However, she declined to comment on specific forex levels.

Going forward, investors will focus on Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Friday.

USD/JPY technical analysis

Bias: USD/JPY trades firmly at around 163.20 at press time. The overall bias is bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) slopes higher at around 162.15 and the reclaimed upward support trend line around 162.16, which both now underpin the bullish near-term bias.

Momentum: The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 65.94, staying in positive territory just shy of classic overbought thresholds and suggesting that upside momentum remains constructive, though increasingly stretched.

Pattern: There is a Rising Wedge formation on the daily chart, which generally leads to a bearish reversal after a strong rally. However, the pair could extend the rally if it breaks the chart pattern on the upside above the upper border, which is around 163.50.

Resistance: USD/JPY could extend its advance towards 164.00 once it breaks above the immediate hurdle of 163.50.

Support: On the downside, initial support is clustered in the 162.15–162.16 area, where the 20-day EMA and the former breakout point of the rising trend line converge as a key demand zone before any deeper correction can develop.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The British Pound (GBP) consolidates losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, as a string of UK inflation figures provided some leeway for the Bank of England to maintain its “wait-and-see” stance through the coming months. The GBP/USD pair remains pinned near weekly lows, below 1.3400 following a nearly 1.2% decline in the last four days.

Data released by the UK National Statistics Office on Wednesday revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) moderated to a 2.6% year-over-year (Y-o-Y)  growth in June, from 2.8% in May, below the 2.7% forecasted by market analysts. The Core CPI, however, remained steady at 2.6% against expectations of a 2.5% reading.

Beyond that, the Input Producer Price Index (PPI) contracted 2% on the month, its sharpest decline in more than six years, while the Output PPI remained flat, undershooting expectations of a 0.4% advance. Year on year, input PPI eased to 7.3% from 9.3% while the Output PPI slowed down to 3.5% in June from 3.7% in May.

In the US, the calendar has been thin this week, but the US Dollar maintains a bid tone, buoyed by market concerns about the war in the Middle East and higher US Treasury yields. The US military pounded targets in Iran for the 11th consecutive day on Wednesday, and US President Donald Trump threatened to attack nuclear facilities, which, according to Tehran, would expand the war in the region.

UK Pound slides amid PM Burnham’s early fiscal signalsRabobank’s FX team notes that “UK markets have now had a few hours to react to PM Burnham’s new cabinet, many of whom have been involved in UK politics for years,” and the initial response has been cautious. They highlight that “10-year gilt yields are currently above the 5% level, which is a sign of some anxiety,” while “the Pound is the worst performing G10 currency on a 1-day view,” underscoring investor unease around the new administration’s fiscal direction.

In the near term, Rabobank points out that “Burnham has promised measures to ease cost-of-living pressures,” with the policy push already underway. “He kicked this off this morning with the news that VAT on household electricity bills will be cut from October,” the bank observes, adding that “the market is now bracing itself for a list of further announcements” as investors assess how these initiatives will be funded and what they might mean for UK assets.

Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is also the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) is maintaining the medium-term uptrend as the price managed to defend the demand zone around 100.50 and the rising trendline on the daily timeframe. Currently, it is seen changing hands near the 101.14 area above the 50-EMA (100.35) and the 100-EMA (99.78) on the daily chart, and the bulls continue to be in control.

Price faced some initial resistance around the 101.65 level with resistance at 102.30, and then 103.02. On the downside, support is seen near 100.50, then 99.53, and then 98.76. The RSI recovered to the 57 level, indicating that the bullish trend continues.

Technically, the trendline support area witnessed its retest and price bounced off it, reinforcing the bullish trend. The price is expected to continue to the upside as long as the 100.50 level continues to hold the support. The bears are likely to lose control of the market and buyers will move prices towards 101.65 and then 102.30, but the support at the 100.50 level is critical and any failure will open up the downside for the price and it will fall towards 99.50.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bears Test Channel Support Below Key Moving Averages

Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 487.29 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 481.47 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to AED 5,683.66 per tola from AED 5,615.73 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

487.29

10 Grams

4,872.91

Tola

5,683.66

Troy Ounce

15,156.44

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 498.23 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 492.14 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,811.27 per tola from SAR 5,740.20 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

498.23

10 Grams

4,982.24

Tola

5,811.27

Troy Ounce

15,496.74

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,778.83 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,628.91 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold increased to INR 149,049.40 per tola from INR 147,301.20 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,778.83

10 Grams

127,788.00

Tola

149,049.40

Troy Ounce

397,476.90

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

British Pound bounces off one-week low vs USD amid Iran diplomacy hopes, ahead of UK CPIThe GBP/USD pair edges higher during the Asian session on Wednesday, snapping a four-day losing streak to the 1.3360 area, or a one-week low, touched the previous day. Spot prices, however, lack follow-through buying and trade below the 1.3400 mark, warranting caution before confirming that the recent pullback from an over two-month high has run its course.

The US Dollar (USD) pauses following a four-day rally to a one-week high amid hopes that US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor lending support to the GBP/USD pair. However, the geopolitical risk remains in play amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran. Read more...

British Pound Sterling gets a decent jobs report and sells off anywayThe British Pound received a labour market report on Tuesday that beat consensus on nearly every line, and sold off anyway. Sterling slid from a London morning high just above 1.3450 to a New York low just above 1.3350, knifing through the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages that sit converged just below 1.3400. GBP/USD trades near 1.3380 late in the session, the weakest of the majors on the day, on track for a fourth consecutive daily decline, and holding its first session beneath both long-term averages since the mid-July rebound began. More than a third of that rebound off the summer base near the 1.3150 area is already gone.

On the surface, Tuesday's labour market data argued for a Pound bid rather than a fourth day of selling. Employment rose 147K in the three months to May against 100K prior, the claimant count climbed just 6.7K in June against a 28.3K consensus, and the unemployment rate slipped to 4.9% when the market expected 5%. The blemish sat in the pay figures, where average earnings including bonuses slowed to 4.3% against a 4.5% consensus, extending the cooling trend the Bank of England has spent months waiting for. Read more...

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA support near 1.3400GBP/USD remains weaker for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 1.3430 during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates a prevailing bullish bias as the pair remains within the ascending channel.

The GBP/USD pair is holding a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of shorter and longer EMAs below price suggests an underpinning uptrend, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at roughly 55 points to steady, rather than overstretched, positive momentum. Read more...

Gold’s rally this week may prove to be one of the more important developments across financial markets—not simply because prices have reclaimed the $4,100 level, but because the move appears to contradict the macro forces that have governed precious metals for much of the second quarter. Silver has joined the advance, climbing back toward $60, even as Brent crude trades above $92, US Treasury yields continue rising and markets price in an more hawkish Federal Reserve.

Those are precisely the conditions that had repeatedly weighed on precious metals since the US-Iran conflict erupted earlier this year. Under that framework, higher oil prices fed inflation expectations, pushing Treasury yields and Fed tightening expectations higher. As non-yielding assets, gold and silver consistently lost ground as investors favored interest-bearing alternatives. That relationship drove silver below $55 and kept gold under sustained pressure despite periodic bursts of geopolitical demand.

The latest price action therefore raises an important question: Is the market beginning to price geopolitical risks differently?

Why is Gold no longer behaving as expected? The current market backdrop would ordinarily be hostile for precious metals. Brent crude has extended its rally above $92, increasing concerns that higher energy prices could feed another round of inflation. Reflecting those concerns, markets now price around a 71% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, up from roughly 58% just a week ago, while the US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.63%.

Viewed through the lens that dominated the second quarter, each of those developments should have been bearish for gold. Higher oil implies stickier inflation. Stickier inflation points to tighter monetary policy. Higher policy expectations lift Treasury yields and typically strengthen Dollar, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Yet instead of weakening, both gold and silver have accelerated higher. The fact that all of these bearish inputs are moving in the same direction while precious metals continue rallying suggests investors may be assigning less weight to interest-rate dynamics than they did only a few weeks ago.

Is the market shifting from an inflation story to a stagflation story? One possible explanation is that investors are beginning to reinterpret the oil shock.

Earlier in the conflict, higher crude prices were primarily viewed as an inflation problem. The market’s focus was on how rising energy costs would delay Fed easing or even require further tightening, making higher yields the dominant driver of asset prices.

Now, the emphasis may be broadening. Persistently elevated oil prices also increase the risk of slower global growth, weaker corporate profitability and policy mistakes if central banks tighten into an economy already facing supply-side shocks. Under that interpretation, gold regains its appeal not only as an inflation hedge but also as protection against geopolitical escalation and stagflation risks.

If that shift in thinking is indeed underway, it would represent a meaningful change in how markets transmit geopolitical shocks into asset prices.

Why is it still too early to call a regime change? Despite the striking divergence, caution remains warranted.

The relationship between higher oil, higher yields and weaker precious metals persisted for several months. Declaring that framework broken after only a handful of trading sessions would be premature. Markets often experience temporary dislocations before reverting to established trends.

Positioning may also be contributing to the rebound. Both gold and silver endured heavy selling over recent months, leaving room for short covering once fresh geopolitical headlines emerged. Some of the current rally may therefore reflect positioning adjustments rather than a fundamental reassessment of macro risks.

The coming weeks will reveal whether investors continue to favor precious metals even if Treasury yields and Fed tightening expectations remain elevated.

Technical outlook: Is Gold approaching confirmation? Technically, momentum is clearly improving.

Gold’s break above 4,102.95 minor resistance suggests the decline from 4,202.87 likely completed at 3959.42, just ahead of the 3,942.23 low. Further gains are now favored toward 4,202.87, with scope for an extension to the falling 55 D EMA, currently around 4,262.15.

Even so, it is still too early to conclude that a lasting bullish reversal has begun. The current advance could yet prove to be merely the third leg of a corrective pattern from 3,942.23. Initial resistance is expected around 38.2% retracement of 4,889.24 to 3,942.23 at 4,303.98.

That said, the broader technical picture is becoming increasingly constructive. Daily MACD continues to display bullish convergence against price, indicating downside momentum has been fading for some time. A decisive break above 4,303.98, accompanied by sustained trading above the 55 DEMA, would provide much stronger evidence that gold is reversing the broader downtrend from the 5598.38 peak rather than simply staging another counter-trend rally.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold (XAU/USD) rallies to an over two-week high, around the $4,140-$4,141 area, during the Asian session on Wednesday amid hopes that US-Iran diplomacy could ease energy prices and temper hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. In fact, top negotiators for Iran and the US signaled that they have not walked away from talks. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Sunday that the US was still open to holding talks with Iran, while Iran's Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni visited mediator Pakistan and asked Islamabad to continue its efforts. Moreover, reports suggest that mediators are working to bring the US and Iran back to the negotiating table.

Meanwhile, the US military said it completed the 11th night of strikes on Iran early Wednesday, targeting aircraft hangars and drone storage sites. Adding to this, President Donald Trump warned that the US strikes would be intensifying and hit any site where Iran attempts to rebuild its nuclear program. Iran, on the other hand, continued attacks across the Gulf, targeting US military assets in Bahrain, Kuwait and Jordan. Adding to this, Iran said that its forces struck two oil tankers as they attempted to transit through the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis opened a new front in the war and declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia.

The latest developments raise the risk of a broader regional conflict and could compound the shortfall in global energy markets amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. This, in turn, lifts crude oil prices to a fresh high since June 12 and fuels worries about energy-driven inflation, which could force the US central bank to stick to its hawkish stance. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are currently pricing in around an 88% chance that the Fed will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. The outlook, in turn, favors US Dollar (USD) bulls and warrants some caution before positioning for any further appreciating move for the non-yielding Gold.

Gold recovery seen constrained as Fed and real yields remain in focusAnalysts at OCBC suggest that, in the current environment, gold is likely to see “two-way” trading in the near term, with any rebound facing clear headwinds. They argue that “a more sustained recovery likely requires oil prices to back off, some easing in real yields and Fed tightening expectations,” and caution that “until then, upside may remain capped.”

XAU/USD 4-hour chart

Gold could accelerate the positive move once 200-SMA on H4 is clearedFrom a technical perspective, an intraday breakout through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downfall since mid-June and acceptance above the $4,100 mark favor XAU/USD bulls. Furthermore, momentum indicators remain strong as the Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near overbought territory around 69.9, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive with the line well above zero. This, in turn, hints that upside pressure is still in play even if stretched.

That said, a sustained move beyond the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart is needed to reaffirm the constructive outlook. The precious metal might then test the initial resistance at the 50.0% retracement at $4,163.16 and then the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at $4,215.39. This is followed by the 78.6% level at $4,289.75 before the cycle high at $4,384.47.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period SMA around $4,128.26, ahead of the 38.2% retracement at $4,110.93 and the 23.6% Fibo. level at $4,046.31, with a deeper floor coming in near the structural low at $3,941.85.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains ground for the fourth successive day, trading around $59.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. Silver prices are surging despite rising rate-hike expectations, as powerful market forces outweigh the drag of higher interest rates. Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, institutional investors are possibly fleeing equities and channeling capital into tangible safe-haven assets like Silver.

However, the potential upside for the non-yielding metal may be limited, as escalating Middle East tensions and rising oil prices fuel inflation fears and keep interest rate expectations elevated. US President Donald Trump downplayed the likelihood of immediate negotiations with Tehran following mutual military strikes and threats from Iran-backed Houthi militants to disrupt Red Sea shipping routes. On Tuesday, Trump pledged to respond if the group interfered with the waterway, though he did not outline specific action.

In response, Iran's top military command stated via the Xinhua news agency that Tehran will expand its strikes to target US and allied assets across the region if the US attacks Iranian nuclear facilities.

On the monetary policy front, Fed Chair Warsh has repeatedly stressed that inflation remains a key concern for the central bank. This cautious stance has been echoed by several other Fed officials in recent weeks as they navigate ongoing economic pressures.

Policymakers have now entered their customary blackout period ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, where the central bank is widely expected to leave the federal funds rate unchanged. Despite this anticipated pause, expectations for tighter policy remain elevated beyond July. In fact, the CME FedWatch Tool indicates that markets are currently pricing in over 71% odds of at least a 25 basis-point rate hike at the upcoming September meeting.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Key Highlights

Gold started a recovery wave from the $3,960 region. It surpassed a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,035 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil extended gains and traded above the $83.50 resistance. Bitcoin recovered some losses and climbed above $66,500. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold found bids near $3,960 and $3,965 against the US Dollar. The price started a correction wave and climbed above the $4,000 resistance.

The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price cleared a key bearish trend line with resistance at $4,035. It climbed above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $4,202 swing high to the $3,959 swing low.

It even tested the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) but stayed well below the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,085. The next major resistance might be near the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,145.

A clear move above $4,145 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,200 or even $4,220. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,300 level.

If there is a fresh decline, the price could revisit the $4,015 support. The first major support sits at $4,000. The next support could be $3,960, below which the price might slide to $3,940. The main support sits at $3,915. Any more losses might call for a test of $3,880 or even $3,865 in the coming days.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price started a steady increase, and the bulls could even aim for a move toward the $88.00 level.

Economic Releases to Watch Today

UK Consumer Price Index for June 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +2.7%, versus +2.8% previous. UK Core Consumer Price Index for June 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +2.5%, versus +2.6% previous.

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Current Setup and Live Chart The trading week is now in its second day, and the GBP/INR pair is currently trading 0.4% lower on the day. The pair lost its early gains as sentiment around the rupee has been boosted by the first update since the Reserve Bank of India introduced a range of measures to attract foreign inflows into the country. The Reserve Bank of India said $20.72 billion had been mobilized through to 17 July, with foreign currency non-resident deposits accounting for about $17.5 billion ​of the total.

This has created a condition for a retracement in GBP/INR despite improving UK economic sentiment. Overall, the Indian rupee remains pressured by elevated oil prices, which arose from the new geopolitical tensions in the East.

Oil prices have now hit $90 per barrel. The country’s status as the third-largest crude oil importer keeps the currency vulnerable despite the RBI’s interventions.

GBP/INR Macro Drivers 1) Improving UK Fundamentals

Improved UK fundamentals have supported the pound as recent developments have strengthened investors’ confidence in the UK currency. These factors include:

better-than-expected good data stabilization of UK government bonds improved fiscal credibility resilient labor market conditions The UK Claimant Count Change came in at 6.7K, which was far less than the market expectation of 29.4K. Furthermore, the average earnings index came in at 4.3%, which is a tad lower than the trial and consensus numbers. Public sector borrowing fell from £20 billion to £16.0 billion, which was lower than the consensus number of £17.8 billion. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.9%. The market has had a positive response to the numbers, reinforcing renewed investor confidence in the pound and the UK economy. 

2) Higher Oil Prices

India is the world’s third-largest oil importer. As a result, higher oil prices increase the country’s energy import bill, add current account pressures on the Indian economy, and increase the risk of imported inflation. Furthermore, there is an increased demand for foreign currency to pay for energy imports. Higher oil prices also lead to risk-averse sentiment, which promotes capital outflows from the Indian stock and bond markets. This generally creates a situation where existing funds have to be reconverted into foreign currency, further increasing FX demand.

3) Diverging Macroeconomic Risks

The market perception is that the UK’s economy is on a path of better fiscal and monetary policy management, while India is facing several challenges arising from higher energy prices, such as inflation and increased current account pressures. The divergence in fiscal and monetary policy expectations between the two countries has become increasingly supportive for the pound at the expense of the rupee in the near term. This perception supports a GBP/INR upside trajectory in the medium term.

GBP/INR Price Catalysts             1) Bank of England Rate Expectations: Incoming UK data on growth and inflation will provide a directional market bias for the Bank of England’s monetary policy direction. Hawkish BoE expectations are expected to follow strong data, which is supportive for the Pound. Weak data will turn expectations dovish, allowing for a retracement in GBP/INR.

2) Brent crude prices: Oil prices are a key price catalyst for the rupee. Higher oil prices weaken the rupee, which is supportive for the pair even in the absence of strong UK data. On the flip side, lower oil prices strengthen the rupee, allowing for a relief retracement on the GBP/INR.

3) Geopolitical developments: geopolitical developments in the Middle East are an ongoing price catalyst. De-escalation of tensions is rupee-supportive as this has a calming impact on oil prices. De-escalation signals come from continued shipping across the Strait of Hormuz, diplomatic negotiations, and a scaling down of military developments.

GBP/INR Forecast Scenarios Base case: Recent UK developments—including firmer growth- have strengthened the Pound, while higher oil prices have put the rupee on the back foot. Unless there are changes to the prevailing fundamentals, the balance of risks is currently tilted toward the Pound, which supports an upside bias.

Bull case: oil prices > $100 per barrel will further weaken the rupee as energy import costs rise. Investment demand will also shift away from emerging market FX such as the rupee, even as the accompanying risk aversion drives capital out of the Indian markets. Under these conditions, the GBP/INR could break above recent resistance levels.

Bear case: this is triggered by a sharp decline in oil prices, dovish Bank of England expectations, or a rapid de-escalation of Middle East tensions. Under these conditions, the rupee’s outlook will become more favorable, resulting in a retracement on the GBP/INR.

GBP/INR Technical Outlook The retreat towards the 128.90 support makes a case for a dip buy at that point. If that support is breached, the retracement extends toward the 127.38 support. The 124.32 support and site of the recent swing low beckons if the 127.38 support buckles under bearish pressure.

Fig 1: GBP/INR daily chart (snapshot taken on 21 July 2026) However, a bounce on 128.90 allows for a push towards the 13132 resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. This is consequent upon an uncapping of the 130.00 psychological resistance. Above this, 134.18 serves as the next barrier, being formed by the 100% Fibonacci extension level of the 22 December 2025 – 21 January 2026 upswing.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground to around $4,080 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal rebounds as safe-haven demand intensified globally after retreating to the $4,000 psychological level in the previous session. 

Renewed military tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have injected high volatility into commodities, prompting traders to rotate capital back into safe-haven yellow metal. Additionally, analysts said that the buying comes with the macro backdrop largely unchanged. “Today’s move looks more like dip-buying than a response to new headlines,” said Ewa Manthey, commodities strategist at ING. 

Traders continue to weigh escalations in the US-Iran war. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) has carried out its 11th consecutive night of strikes on Iran since US President Donald Trump declared the ceasefire “over,” while Tehran’s forces have struck US military assets across the Middle East and its Houthi allies have declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia.

Markets will closely monitor Middle East tensions for signs that higher energy costs could stoke inflation, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten policy. Swap traders see low odds of the Fed raising rates at its next meeting in July after softer US inflation data, although traders have fully priced in at least one hike by the end of the year.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

USD/JPY has finally broken higher after weeks of compression, with easing bearish sentiment towards the Japanese yen adding fuel to the rally. While the US dollar led the move, the technical backdrop also favours further upside for GBP/JPY, although crude oil prices remain a key variable for CAD/JPY bears.

Source: LSEG

View related analysis:

US Dollar Bulls Lose Momentum, Commodity FX Defies Positioning | COT Report Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bulls Hold the Edge Ahead of Jobs Data Nasdaq Could Look to KOSPI for Directional Clues Beyond Earnings Canadian Dollar Slides as Soft CPI and Trump Tariffs Lift USD/CAD USD/JPY Leads as Japanese Yen Weakness Keeps GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY in Focus It only seemed a matter of time before volatility erupted on USD/JPY, given the compression pattern beneath its 39-year high. Momentum ultimately broke to the upside, helped by a strong session for the US dollar amid the latest flare-up in Middle East tensions.

As noted in this week’s COT report, net-short exposure to the Japanese yen has moved away from a sentiment extreme. That removes some pressure from bearish yen positions and gives the USD/JPY breakout more breathing room. The question now is whether other currencies, such as the British pound or Canadian dollar could also take advantage of the weaker yen.

Source: CFTC (COT), LSEG

For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.

USD/JPY Tests Trendline Resistance After Breakout Regular readers will know I am not an advocate of trendlines, but I concede they deserve attention from time to time. In this case, a trendline projected from the January high coincides with Tuesday's high, making it a valid interim resistance level. It is also one that could break, given the strength of the move out of the compression pattern.

The monthly R1 pivot (163.72) and 165.30 may be the next resistance levels for bulls if the trendline breaks. That said, prices appear stretched on the 1-hour chart, while bearish RSI divergences have formed in overbought territory, raising the potential for a near-term pullback. Bulls could look to buy dips within Tuesday's range, with 163 potentially providing support.

Source: ICE, TradingView

GBP/JPY Bulls Eye 219 as British Pound Holds the Advantage The GBP/JPY uptrend on the daily chart speaks for itself, with bullish momentum accelerating from the June low. Prices have retraced to the 10-day EMA and the monthly R2 pivot, while Tuesday's wide-legged doji has caught my eye as it hints at a swing low forming within a strong uptrend.

Price action on the 1-hour chart appears corrective, given the overlapping nature of the decline. Moreover, elevated volumes accompanied the swing low, reinforcing my suspicion of bullish accumulation above 217.50. GBP/JPY is now attempting to form a higher low around the 218.00 handle and the weekly pivot point.

Ultimately, my near-term bias for the British pound against the Japanese yen remains bullish while prices hold above Tuesday's low, with a move to 219.00 as the minimum upside target. Note the July 2007 low at 219.036 and the 219.61 high as additional resistance levels ahead of the weekly R1 pivot just below 220.00.

Source: ICE, TradingView

CAD/JPY Reversal Pattern Faces Crude Oil Headwind The daily chart shows an evening star pattern (a three-bar bearish reversal) forming around the 116.00 handle, warning that a top may be in place. Tuesday's small bullish inside day represents a lacklustre attempt by bulls to reclaim lost ground, and the fact it closed around the monthly R1 pivot suggests CAD/JPY could be gearing up for another leg lower.

However, rising crude oil prices are a fly in the ointment for CAD/JPY bears. As a major oil exporter, Canada typically benefits from higher crude oil prices, which can underpin the Canadian dollar against the Japanese yen. If crude oil continues to rally, it could support CAD/JPY, or at least make life more difficult for bears. Conversely, if Middle East tensions ease and crude oil prices retreat, it could pave the way for the next leg lower in CAD/JPY.

A break below the weekly pivot point (115.31) would bring the weekly S1 level and monthly pivot point into focus near 114.50.

Source: ICE, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

Silver price (XAG/USD) surges over 4.50% on Tuesday, reaching five-day highs, clearing $59.00 as buyers push the white metal to test a downslope resistance trendline near the $59.65/$50.75 range, about to surpass the $60.00 mark.

XAG/USD price forecast: Technical outlookFrom a technical perspective, it seems XAG/USD is about to break a downtrend resistance line, which could open the door to a recovery. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that buyers are gaining momentum, suggesting Silver could test higher levels in the near term.

If XAG/USD clears $59.75, the immediate test would be $60.00. A breach of the latter opens the path to challenge the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $66.89 ahead of the June 22 daily peak at $67.17. Above, the next area of interest would be the psychological $70.00.

On the downside, Silver’s first support is the low of the day (LOD) at $56.11. Below lies $55.00, followed by the November 13. 2025 high turned support at $54.39, followed by the $55.00 milestone.

XAG/USD daily price chart

Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold price surges on Tuesday during the North American session, up by more than 1.50% amid continued missile strikes between the US and Iran despite mediators' efforts to end the war. The XAU/USD trades at $4,071

XAU/USD gains as ceasefire doubts revive safe-haven demandThe yellow metal is gathering traction even as US Treasury yields and the Greenback register gains. Oil prices are also rising as Ansar Allah threatens to attack vessels in the Red Sea, adding to fears for Crude supply disruptions.

Newswires revealed that the US is demanding a longer ceasefire and partial navigation in Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran proposed a 10-day ceasefire.

Other news showed that US President Donald Trump is considering whether to accept Iran’s 10-day ceasefire or to launch a full-scale war on Iran. A US official hinted that if the President chooses the latter, the strikes could target Tehran and Iran’s nuclear sites.

This week, the US economic calendar is quiet. The ADP Employment Change 4-week average decreased to 16.5K from 19.25K. On Wednesday, the docket is absent, followed by Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims, leading up to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting on July 29.

In the meantime, the US 10-year Treasury yield is rising by nearly 3.5 basis points to 4.628%, usually a headwind for Bullion, which tends to edge lower due to its non-yielding nature. Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against six others, advances 0.12% to 101.11.

Expectations that the Fedmight increase the pace of rate hikes in 2026 are surging, driven by elevated Oil prices as Gulf supply disruptions stoke inflation fears and fuel speculation of higher interest rates for a longer period.

Prime Terminal data indicates a 78% probability that the Fed will hold rates steady at next week’s meeting, while the likelihood of a September hike is about 68%.

Source: Prime TerminalXAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price recovers yet is poised to consolidateGold is poised to continue trending sideways, though it’s trading near five-day highs approaching $4,100. Momentum is moderately bullish in the short term as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching the 50-neutral level.

From a market structure perspective, the trend is downward. To restart an upward trend, Gold needs to clear the resistance trendline circa $4,125. Once cleared, the next higher-high will be the July 10 high at $4,134, ahead of the July 6 peak at $4,202. A breach of the latter will put the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,264 into play.

For a bearish continuation, Bullion needs to clear the $4,000 mark. Below is the July 17 low at $3,959, followed by $3,900. If sellers continue to drive prices lower, the next area of interest would be the October 28, 2025 low of $3,886.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Japanese Yen Technical Forecast: USD/JPY Weekly Trade Levels A month-long contraction in USD/JPY has resolved higher, restoring upside momentum into the yearly highs. The breakout has pushed price toward a major technical resistance cluster just overhead. Weekly momentum has reached its strongest level since January, reinforcing the broader bullish outlook. A sustained weekly close above resistance is needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance Intervention risk remains a key wildcard as traders look ahead to next week's FOMC decision and June PCE inflation report. Resistance 163.33, 164 (key), 169- Support 161.95, 160.74 (key), 157.70-158.08 USD/JPY has broken out of a contracting July opening range to trade at fresh yearly highs, shifting the focus back to a major technical resistance cluster just overhead. The pair spent much of the month consolidating within an increasingly compressed range before buyers regained control and cleared the upper boundary earlier today. Price is now approaching the next major upside objective, where trendline resistance converges with key Fibonacci extension targets. With weekly momentum at its strongest level since January and nearing overbought territory, the reaction at this barrier could determine whether the breakout fuels another leg higher or gives way to a deeper corrective pullback. Battle lines are drawn on the USD/JPY weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Yen setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/JPY on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Japanese Yen Technical Forecast we noted that USD/JPY had broken to fresh yearly highs into the start of the month and that, “From a trading standpoint, look to reduce long exposure / raise protective stops on a rally towards 163.33- losses should be limited to 160.74 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 164 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.” USD/JPY failed to sustain the advance that week with price reversing more than 1.4% to register an intraweek low at 160.48 before stabilizing.

Nearly four weeks later, USD/JPY is now within striking distance of the 1.618% extension of the 2025 advance at 163.33. Note that basic trendline resistance extending off the yearly highs converges on this level over the next few weeks- look for a reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance is eyed just higher at the 1.618% extension of the yearly opening range breakout at 164. A breach / close above this threshold is needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally with the next major technical consideration eyed at the 1.618% extension of the January advance near 169-proper.

Initial weekly support rests with the 2024 high at 161.95 with medium-term bullish invalidation steady at the 2024 high-week close (HWC) and the April high at 160.73/74. Losses below this threshold would suggest a more significant high is in place and threaten a deeper correction towards uptrend support at the 2025 / January high-week closes (HWC) at 157.70-158.08.

           

Bottom line: USD/JPY is approaching technical resistance at fresh yearly highs, and the focus is on possible inflection off this level in the days ahead. Note that weekly momentum has now reached its highest level since January (near 67) and a stretch into overbought alongside a breach above this resistance barrier would likely reinforce / sustain this rally. From a trading standpoint, the outlook remains unchanged and losses would need to be limited to 160.74 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a weekly close above 164 needed to fuel the next major leg of the rally.

The threat of official intervention remains a key risk for USD/JPY, with Japanese authorities retaining the option to step into the market at any time to stem excessive yen weakness. Meanwhile, the U.S. economic calendar is relatively quiet ahead of next week's FOMC rate decision and the release of June PCE inflation data. Watch the weekly close for confirmation of the broader directional bias and ensure all open exposure is managed with well-defined risk parameters. Review my latest Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts Euro (EUR/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) Bitcoin (BTC/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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It has not been an easy start to the week for the Canadian dollar. Now, renewed weakness in the currency is becoming evident, while USD/CAD has gained more than 0.6% over the last 2 trading sessions, reflecting U.S. dollar strength and a new loss of momentum in the CAD.

Although buying pressure in the pair had already started to emerge after the release of CPI inflation data in Canada, it has become more evident following recent comments about possible new tariffs on the country. This event has started to reduce confidence and could continue to affect the Canadian dollar in the short term, keeping relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few trading sessions.

Are new tariffs on the way? Recently, the United States announced a new package of tariffs on goods coming from Canada, with rates that could reach up to 50% of the value of some products, including items ranging from wine to sporting goods. In addition, it has been mentioned that these new tariffs could include goods that are part of the North American trade agreement, the USMCA.

This event has not been favorable for confidence around the Canadian economy. Although Canada has tried to make progress on trade agreements with other countries, its economy remains strongly linked to trade activity with the United States. The latest trade balance data show that, by the end of 2025, more than 72% of Canadian exports were still directed to the United States compared with the rest of the world.

This keeps concerns around Canada’s economic dependence on its main trading partner in focus, especially if recent comments about new tariffs materialize and affect this relationship in the short term.

Source: InternationalCanada

With all of this in mind, the situation remains difficult for Canadian dollar strength. If the new tariffs materialize, they could affect growth expectations in Canada and limit the flow of foreign currency into the country.

For this reason, uncertainty could remain relevant, especially if recent comments turn into concrete measures. In this scenario, the Canadian dollar could struggle to gain ground consistently against the U.S. dollar, which would continue to favor possible buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few sessions.

Do inflation data also have an impact? During the previous session, CPI inflation data in Canada was released. Although the market expected an annual reading of 2.9%, the figure came in at 2.8%, showing a slight slowdown from the recent high of 3.2% observed in May.

This moderation brings inflation closer again to the approximate 2.00% target and reduces concerns about a stronger acceleration in Canadian prices. For this reason, the Bank of Canada could face less pressure to adopt a more aggressive stance over the coming months.

Source: TradingEconomics

Market expectations point in the same direction. For the September and October decisions, the probability table shows more than a 60% chance that interest rates will remain without relevant changes.

This limits the appeal of the Canadian dollar against the U.S. dollar. Canada’s reference rate, at 2.25%, remains considerably lower than the U.S. rate, which stands at 3.75%. This difference favors USD-denominated investments, especially due to the higher yield offered by the U.S. fixed-income market.

For this reason, the inflation reading could continue to weigh on the CAD and maintain relevant buying pressure in USD/CAD over the next few trading sessions.

Technical forecast for USD/CAD

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

New recovery becomes relevant: For several trading sessions, USD/CAD managed to break a long bullish trend line that had been in place for several months. However, selling strength has not fully dominated the chart. The new recovery has pushed price back above the 50-period simple moving average, indicating that the buying bias seen in previous months has not fully disappeared. If this behavior continues, room could open for a more relevant phase of indecision or even for an attempt to recover the previous bullish trend line.
  RSI: The RSI line remains close to the 50 level. This indicates that, for now, there is still a balance between bullish and bearish impulses in the market over the last 14 sessions. This reading shows that a possible indecision bias could remain relevant in USD/CAD movements over the next few trading sessions.
  TRIX: Now, the TRIX line has started to show relevant declines, although it still remains above the neutral 0 level. This reflects that bullish strength remains dominant on average across long-term exponential moving averages. For this reason, the broader buying bias from previous months may not have fully disappeared from the long-term chart.
  Key levels:

1.42089 – Relevant resistance: This 2026 high remains the most important buying barrier on the chart. Price movements toward this area could reactivate a buying bias and restore relevance to the bullish trend line that was important in previous weeks.
  1.40813 – Near-term barrier: This nearby area corresponds to the most relevant 23.6% Fibonacci level on the chart. Price movements that fail to move consistently away from this level could continue to highlight an important neutral phase and even open room for the formation of a short-term sideways range over the next few sessions.
  1.39905 – Crucial support: This relevant bearish barrier corresponds to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement area and also aligns with the 50-period simple moving average. Price movements below this level could reaffirm a more consistent selling bias and open room for a possible short-term bearish trend line over the next few sessions.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Key Points:GBP/USD pulled back despite the better-than-expected UK Unemployment Rate report. USD/CAD gained ground as traders ignored the rally in precious metals markets. USD/JPY tested the 163.00 level as traders focused on rising Treasury yields.

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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Demand For Safe-Haven Assets

DXY 210726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders react to rising oil prices. WTI oil moved above the $84.00 level amid rising tensions in the Middle East. Demand for safe-haven assets increased, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.

Treasury yields are moving higher as bond traders bet that high oil prices will force Fed to raise rates. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.25% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.63%. Rising Treasury yields provided additional support to the American currency.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level at 101.80 – 102.00.

EUR/USD Attempts To Settle Below The 1.1400 Level EUR/USD 210726 4h Chart EUR/USD is mostly flat as traders focus on the Euro Area ZEW Economic Sentiment Index report. The report indicated that Economic Sentiment increased from 9.5 in June to 23.4 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 11.2.

If EUR/USD stays below the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1350 – 1.1365 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.

GBP/USD Retreats As Pullback Continues GBP/USD 210726 4h Chart GBP/USD remains under pressure as traders stay focused on first moves of new UK Prime Minister and react to the UK Unemployment Rate report. The report indicated that Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.9% in May, compared to analyst forecast of 5.0%.

The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range. If GBP/USD manages to settle below the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3250 – 1.3265.

USD/CAD Gains Ground Amid Rising Treasury Yields USD/CAD 210726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving higher as traders focus on rising Treasury yields and ignore the rally in precious metals markets. Gold moved above the $4050 level, while silver settled above $59.00. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.

In case USD/CAD stays above the 50 MA at 1.4083, it will move towards the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140. A successful test of the resistance at 1.4125 – 1.4140 will open the way to the test of the next resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.

USD/JPY Tests Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 210726 4h Chart USD/JPY is trying to settle above the 163.00 level as traders ignore intervention risks and focus on the fundamental weakness of the Japanese currency.

Rising Treasury yields put significant pressure on the Japanese yen due to the ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. High oil prices serve as an additional bearish catalyst as Japanese economy is dependent on energy imports. A combination of higher Treasury yields and rising oil prices pushed the Japanese yen towards multi-decade lows.

In case USD/JPY settles above the 163.00 level, it will head towards the 165.00 level. RSI is in the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain additional momentum in the near term. Potential BoJ interventions are the key risk for the bulls.

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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

USD/JPY trades higher near 163.00 on Tuesday after briefly reaching 163.04, marking its first move above the 163.00 level since December 1986. The US Dollar (USD) remains supported by safe-haven demand as investors assess renewed Middle East tensions and rising Oil prices.

The pair advanced despite signs of softer US labor-market momentum. The ADP Employment Change four-week average declined to 16.5K from 19.25K, suggesting that private-sector hiring continues to cool.

Recent softer US inflation data has also limited expectations of further aggressive Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening. However, geopolitical uncertainty and persistent weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY) continue to dominate, keeping USD/JPY near multi-decade highs and increasing the risk of intervention from Japanese authorities.

Yen underperforms as Japan data loom and intervention risk stays on radarStrategists at Scotiabank highlight that the Yen’s underperformance against the US Dollar is keeping policymakers firmly in focus, noting they “remain concerned about the possibility of official intervention, or at the very least comments threatening potential action.” They add that the immediate data calendar offers few distractions, with “overnight releases…limited but Japan is scheduled to deliver its June trade figures at 7:50pm ET, ahead of CPI data later in the week,” events that could further shape market expectations around potential MoF responses to currency moves.

Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 162.97, holding a bullish near-term bias as it remains above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 162.45 and the 100-period SMA at 162.15. The pair is pressing into overhead supply just beneath the horizontal resistance at 163.04, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) extends into overbought territory around 73, hinting at strong but stretched upside momentum that could slow fresh gains.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nearby horizontal level at 162.94, followed by deeper cushions at 162.75 and 162.59, which align beneath the short-term 20-period SMA at 162.45 and the medium-term 100-period SMA at 162.15 to reinforce the broader constructive structure.

On the topside, a clear break above 163.04 would open the way for further appreciation, while failure to overcome this barrier could trigger consolidation or a corrective pullback toward the clustered supports below.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret highlight the Euro (EUR) trading quietly against the US Dollar (USD) in a tight low-1.14 range, with limited reaction to stronger ZEW sentiment data. Short-term rates have stabilized after a hawkish repricing, supporting EUR via yield spreads. Markets expect little change from the July European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, focusing instead on September tightening and watching resistance near 1.1500.

Euro holds tight pre-ECB decision"The EUR remains quiet as it continues to consolidate within a remarkably tight range in the low-1.14s, entering Tuesday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% gain vs. the USD."

"Broader developments appear to be offering little in terms of movement for the EUR, and we note the absence of any material reaction to the release of stronger than expected ZEW investor sentiment data – a leading indicator for German industrial production activity (by 12-18 months)."

"Short-term rates markets are showing signs of stabilization ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, consolidating the recent hawkish repricing that has delivered fundamental support to the EUR via yield spreads."

"Markets are pricing little change for the July 23 decision, favoring September with 22bpts of tightening currently reflected in OIS with a cumulative 43bpts by December."

"Neutral – the EUR’s technicals are offering little in terms of momentum as the RSI shows signs of stabilization just below the neutral threshold at 50. Recent price action has been narrowly confined to a tight range roughly bound between 1.1380 and 1.1480, and we remain neutral absent a meaningful push toward 1.1500 and the 50 day MA at 1.1516."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

EUR/USD edges lower on Tuesday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1405, hovering near one-week lows.

Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected ZEW surveys provided little support to the Euro (EUR). Eurozone Economic Sentiment jumped to 23.4 in July from 9.5 in June, beating the forecast of 11.2. Germany’s Economic Sentiment Index climbed to 26.3 from 10.5, well above the market expectation of 18.

The US military carried out a tenth consecutive night of strikes against Iran, while Tehran targeted US military assets across the region. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.15, extending its gains for a fourth straight day.

Diplomatic efforts offer some hope of a pause in the fighting. Mediators have proposed a 10-day ceasefire aimed at reviving last month’s interim US-Iran agreement. However, continued military exchanges have disrupted energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a rebound in Oil prices and reigniting inflation concerns.

As a result, traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Both central banks are expected to leave interest rates unchanged at their upcoming policy meetings. However, further rate hikes remain possible if inflation pressures intensify.

Euro holds tight range as ECB repricing supports but fails to spark momentumAnalysts at Scotiabank observe that short-term rates markets “are showing signs of stabilization ahead of Thursday’s ECB decision, consolidating the recent hawkish repricing that has delivered fundamental support to the EUR via yield spreads.”

In terms of policy expectations, Scotiabank highlights that “markets are pricing little change for the July 23 decision, favoring September with 22bpts of tightening currently reflected in OIS with a cumulative 43bpts by December.”

From a technical perspective, the bank’s stance remains “neutral – the EUR’s technicals are offering little in terms of momentum as the RSI shows signs of stabilization just below the neutral threshold at 50.” They add that “recent price action has been narrowly confined to a tight range roughly bound between 1.1380 and 1.1480,” and that they “remain neutral absent a meaningful push toward 1.1500 and the 50-day MA at 1.1516.”

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.41%0.28%0.19%-0.15%0.12%0.25%EUR-0.06%0.35%0.22%0.14%-0.18%0.06%0.20%GBP-0.41%-0.35%-0.11%-0.21%-0.53%-0.28%-0.15%JPY-0.28%-0.22%0.11%-0.08%-0.40%-0.17%-0.02%CAD-0.19%-0.14%0.21%0.08%-0.33%-0.08%0.06%AUD0.15%0.18%0.53%0.40%0.33%0.25%0.40%NZD-0.12%-0.06%0.28%0.17%0.08%-0.25%0.13%CHF-0.25%-0.20%0.15%0.02%-0.06%-0.40%-0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

/ / Swiss Franc Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Breakout Pressure Builds at Major Resistance USD/CHF is testing pivotal resistance for a fifth consecutive week and a breakout here could fuel the next major leg of the advance.

21/07/2026

7/21/2026 2:45:00 PM

Swiss Franc Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Multi-Timeframe Analysis Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, examines the USD/CHF technical outlook as the Swiss franc approaches a critical long-term resistance zone. Using monthly, weekly, daily and four-hour charts, he explains the key breakout and support levels, momentum divergence, and why technical structure is likely to drive the pair ahead of next week's Federal Reserve meeting.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Key USD/CHF Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

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