Explore the latest analysis of GBP/INR and Nifty 50 trends. Gain insights into market movements and key levels to watch. GBP/INR is close to 126.4, while the Nifty 50 index closed on October 19 at 22,888.95, down 1.11% on the day. The two charts tell one tale: A weak rupee and nasty foreign selling driven by oil, global bond yields, and risk aversion.
GBP/INR and Nifty 50: key-level map built from reported closes Why This Pairing Matters
UK-based readers sending money to India, importers hedging rupee exposure, and traders comparing sterling with emerging-market currencies are closely watching GBP/INR. But the Nifty 50 matters: foreign flows into Indian shares prop up rupee demand, and risk-off sentiment often brings equity weakness and currency weakness hand in hand.
GBP/INR Technical Outlook The pair has fluctuated between roughly 125.46 and 128.54 in the month since, with 126.4 firmly in the lower half of that range. Sterling is holding around 1.33 against the dollar, so rupee weakness is to blame.
Our report on GBP/INR rising above 127 captured the last push higher. Support is 125.46, while resistance is 128.54. The Reserve Bank of India keeps defending the currency, as explained in our analysis of RBI Defence against oil and capital flow pressures, and USD/INR has moved between roughly 95 and 97 this month. The rupee slumped to 96.32 per dollar on October 1, then approached a one-month high near 95 on October 13 after the central bank stepped up forex regulations.
Nifty 50 Technical Levels Our report on Nifty ends with the longest falling streak in 25 years. The Nifty continues to languish near the level of its October 2023 lows near 22,182.55 after eight (8) straight weekly losses, matching the index’s longest losing run in a quarter century. The round number is now resistance, starting with Monday’s close below 23,000, in addition to 23,150 and the psychological barrier of 23,400. Support is at 22,800 and then the 22,183 low.
And also in last month’s derivative series, foreign investors increased their short positions in index futures too, adding a defensive stance that can cap rallies. Since our last analysis, Nifty’s rapid decline of more than 7% in two months was an alerting signal that the decline seemed likely to continue.
What Links the Two Charts Brent near $108 only inflates the import bill, weakens the rupee, and stokes inflation; India imports most of its crude. In 2026, foreign buyers placed a record amount of money in the dollar of 27.8 billion US dollars from Indian equities. GBP/INR is kept buoyed by a weaker rupee, which passively caps returns for overseas investors in Indian equities but maintains selling pressure.
Catalysts to Watch There are three drivers at play: crude oil, US Treasury yields, and intervention from central banks. The benchmark yield in India has surged to a two-year high as rising US yields make dollar-denominated assets more appealing than stocks from developing nations. However, the Nifty and rupee would get a double whammy from any fresh rally beyond this crude, as easing towards $100 in Brent should calm both to some extent, but a repeat of such a spike will put lows to test quickly.
Trading Scenarios The bullish Nifty case requires a recovery above 23,150, followed by 23,400 on the back of easing oil and foreign buyers returning. A close under 22,183 would target the psychological level of 22K. GBP/INR – A break above 128.54 indicates further rupee weakness, while a drop below 125.46 indicates recovery. The volatility index, the VIX, or fear gauge of India, rose 4.98% to 14.76, indicating nerves rather than panic.
GBP/USD unchanged despite UK inflation jumping to an 11-month high
GBP/USD hovers below 1.34, around a monthly high, following hotter UK inflation data and amid a flat U.S. dollar.
Data from the ONS showed that UK CPI rose to 3.5% year-on-year in September, up from 3.1% in August and above expectations of 3.4%, amid rising fuel costs. Diesel prices reached a record high, while oil rose above $100 a barrel.
Core inflation, which strips out more volatile items such as food and fuel, also moved higher to 2.8%, up from 2.6%, and came in ahead of expectations of 2.7%.
Services inflation rose for the first time since April, reaching 3.7%, up from 3.4%, suggesting that inflationary pressures are spreading through the economy. This is a figure that Bank of England policymakers will be looking at closely.
The data reinforces expectations that the Bank of England will hike interest rates by 25 basis points on November 5. However, it has done little to change the outlook for future meetings, following yesterday's stronger-than-expected UK labour market data, which had already supported rate hike expectations.
For this reason, the pound has remained relatively unmoved by the inflation data.
Investors are also weighing up public finance data, the final update ahead of Chancellor John Healey's budget next week.
The figures showed that September net borrowing came in higher than expected at £24.5 billion. This was £1.8 billion more than in September 2025 and £1.9 billion above the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast.
The deficit for April to September widened to £97.8 billion, £6 billion more than the OBR predicted.
Government debt has exceeded £3 trillion for the first time. Combined with hotter-than-expected inflation, this makes for a difficult backdrop ahead of the budget.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar is broadly unchanged, trading around a three-week low.
The dollar has come under pressure, tracking Treasury yields lower in recent weeks after a sell-off in tech stocks drove a rotation into safe-haven Treasuries.
Still, the U.S. dollar remains broadly supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will hike rates again before the end of the year, while elevated oil prices are keeping inflation expectations in focus.
The U.S. economic calendar is quiet today, with attention instead on U.S. tech earnings. University of Michigan consumer confidence data is due on Friday.
GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis
GBP/USD has broken out of a consolidation pattern, moving above its 50 EMA before running into resistance at the 200 EMA around 1.3400. Although the pair has pulled back slightly, it remains above its 50 EMA and descending trendline, making the near-term outlook more constructive.
Buyers will now look for a break above the 200 EMA at 1.3400 to gain traction and open the way towards 1.3500, the psychological level, followed by 1.3650.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.3350, where the descending trendline converges with the 50 EMA. Below here, attention turns to horizontal support at 1.3300, followed by 1.3280, the July 24 low. A break below this level would expose the 1.3200 support zone, which has been significant throughout 2026.
DAX steady as Space-X revives the AI trade but oil limits gains
The DAX, together with other European indices, has opened relatively flat as investors weigh up encouraging earnings from SpaceX and Super Micro against elevated oil prices, which are weighing on sentiment.
Impressive earnings from SpaceX and Super Micro are helping to revive the AI trade, with AI hardware stocks recovering.
SpaceX is rising 9% pre-market after Q3 earnings came in well ahead of expectations across its divisions. SpaceX reported Q3 net income of $4.1 billion, compared with a $1.1 billion loss in the same period last year. Total revenue was also significantly above Wall Street estimates at $14.6 billion.
Meanwhile, Super Micro lifted its quarterly revenue outlook by 27% on strong AI demand, helping shares jump 15% after hours.
These results are helping to revive optimism towards the AI trade after jitters last week over the huge costs involved in the AI buildout, how it will be financed and when the investment will generate returns, particularly in a high-interest-rate environment.
However, the upside is being capped by concerns over rising oil prices. Brent trades above $110 a barrel, keeping inflation worries elevated and the prospect of further rate hikes on the table.
DAX forecast – technical analysis
The DAX found support at the 200 EMA and has risen, breaking out of its falling channel, but gains have run into resistance at 25,500, the 50 EMA. The index therefore remains caught between the 200 EMA and the 50 EMA, while the RSI is neutral.
Buyers will need to break above the 50 EMA at 25,500 to bring 25,800 into focus, the mid-September high. Above here, attention turns to 26,500 and 26,600, which would mark fresh record highs.
On the downside, sellers will need to break below the 200 EMA around 24,950 to gain traction, bringing 24,660, the July low, into focus. Below here, attention turns to 24,000, a level last seen in June.
Daily iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
The long-term view of the iShares Silver Trust ETF shows a downtrend based on the market’s relationship with both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages at $57.50 and $65.27, respectively.
From a value perspective, the market has been sitting inside a key long-term retracement zone at $54.92 to $41.96. The three bottoms at $49.61, $51.12 and $50.01 may be early signs of accumulation. However, until new money can cross to the strong side of this zone and create enough upside momentum to overcome the moving averages, the iShares Silver Trust ETF is likely to continue to sit inside the long-term retracement zone.
What to Watch
The Fed has not given silver a fresh trade. Oil is keeping inflation on the screen, December rate expectations are still there, and the dollar and yields are firming. That keeps the pressure on the top side of the market. PCE next week is the next major U.S. number.
The primary driver of my downside bias on the weekly chart is the market’s relative position to the 52-week moving average. The trading action since July, however, is showing signs that some investors are recognizing the importance of the $60.835 to $46.48 retracement zone. Overcoming $60.835 will weaken my bearish outlook.
The main swing chart trend and trading below the 50-day moving average are giving me my downside bias. My outlook will strengthen if $55.40 fails as support. It will weaken if buyers can overcome $58.43 with conviction.
In my opinion, SLV ETF is more of an investment vehicle than a trading vehicle like XAGUSD so my bias is more neutral than bearish. From the all-time high at $109.83, a decline of 50% to 61.8% in just 10 months fits the definition of a value area for long-term investors.
AUDUSD hits double top The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) continued its rally as the pair moved over 100 pips higher. Prices hope to find steady ground above 0.7000 after breaking the previous resistance.
Key Points:UK CPI rose 3.5% in September, above the 3.4% forecast, backing a November BoE hike. AI-trade doubts weighed on the dollar despite 94% odds of a Fed hike by December.DXY trades near 101.81 with a neutral bias between 101.58 and 102.01 as it tests trendline resistance. A close above 102.01 could expose 102.26 and 102.45, while a drop below 101.58 would favor sellers.EUR/USD trades near 1.1220 with a slight bearish lean below 1.1241 as the French-German yield spread widens to 153 basis points. A close below 1.1204 could expose 1.1172 and 1.1148.GBP/USD trades near 1.3371 with a slight bullish lean above 1.3353 and its rising trendline. A sustained close above 1.3404 could open 1.3454 and 1.3492, while a drop below 1.3302 would open 1.3239.Dollar Slips on AI Doubts as UK Inflation Jump Firms Hike Bets The dollar is losing some support from US tech stocks. The euro remains tied to France’s political crisis, and a hotter UK inflation print has strengthened sterling’s rate story.
Dollar Index: AI Jitters Outweigh Fed Hawkishness The dollar slipped on Tuesday as doubts about the AI trade resurfaced, Reuters reported. Traders are questioning whether companies can earn enough to justify heavy debt issuance tied to the build-out. Rate expectations are largely unchanged: CME’s FedWatch shows an 83% chance the Fed holds on October 28 and a 94% chance of at least one hike by December. With the Fed meeting on October 28 and the ECB the next day, positioning is likely to stay light this week.
Euro: The French Premium Keeps Widening The euro rose modestly, but traders remain wary as France faces widespread protests and a deteriorating fiscal outlook. Curfews in riot-hit areas brought some calm, but more demonstrations are planned for the weekend. The gap between French and German 10-year yields has widened to 153 basis points, close to levels last seen during the 2011-2012 debt crisis. A poll taken before the riots already showed Marine Le Pen leading the first round of next year’s presidential election. Handelsbanken’s Tommy von Brömsen said more euro weakness is likely to be priced in.
Pound: Inflation Surprise Backs a November Hike UK consumer prices rose 3.5% in the 12 months to September, above the 3.4% economists expected and up from 3.1% in August, the ONS said this morning. Motor fuel inflation hit its highest since August 2022, reflecting Britain’s exposure to energy shocks as a net importer. Coming a day after unemployment unexpectedly fell to 4.7%, the data strengthen the case for a Bank of England hike at its November 5 meeting, with the Autumn Budget due on October 28.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds 101.73 as Trendline Resistance Is Tested
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index is trading near 101.81 on the 1-hour chart. What stands out to me is that DXY is pressing right against the descending trendline that has capped every rally since the 102.94 spike. Sellers still have the broader edge, with a clear run of lower highs. However, buyers have defended the 101.50 to 101.58 support zone twice since last Friday, and price is now sitting on the faster-moving average.
The first resistance I am watching is the trendline, followed by 102.01. A clean break above that area would expose 102.26 and then 102.45. On the downside, 101.73 is the first support, with 101.58 below it. A break of that zone would open the way toward 101.32 and 101.03.
RSI is around 53 and rising above its signal line near 47, suggesting short-term momentum is improving. I am neutral while DXY trades between 101.58 and 102.01. A close above 102.01 would confirm a trendline breakout, while a drop below 101.58 would put sellers back in control.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Holds 1.3353 as 1.3404 Breakout Test Continues
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is trading near 1.3371 on the 1-hour chart. The steady recovery from the 1.3140 low, supported by a rising trendline, stands out. The pair cleanly bounced from that line during the retest of 1.3302 earlier this week. Price has now pushed into the 1.3353 to 1.3404 resistance zone, which capped the pound in late September. Both moving averages remain below price and are sloping higher.
EUR/USD Price Forecast
Every new EUR/USD analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all EUR/USD forecasts The first resistance I am watching is 1.3404, where the latest spike was rejected. A clean break above it would expose 1.3454 and then 1.3492. On the downside, the rising trendline near 1.3365 and 1.3353 form the first support, followed by 1.3302 and 1.3239.
RSI is around 58 and has slipped just below its signal line near 62. That suggests bullish momentum is cooling at resistance but hasn’t reversed. I am leaning slightly bullish as long as GBP/USD holds above 1.3353. A sustained close above 1.3404 would strengthen the breakout case, while a drop below 1.3353 and the rising trendline near 1.3365 would be an early warning. A break below 1.3302 would open 1.3239.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Rejected Below 1.1241 as 1.1204 Comes Into Focus
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is trading near 1.1220 on the 1-hour chart. What stands out is yet another rejection from the descending trendline and the 1.1241-1.1270 resistance zone. That area has turned buyers away repeatedly since early October. The pair is now slipping below both moving averages. I’d watch for a dip toward 1.1204; a weak bounce from there would keep the bearish case intact, and a break below it would point to 1.1172.
The first support I am watching is 1.1204. A clean break below it would expose 1.1172, then 1.1148, and finally the 1.1113 low. On the upside, 1.1241 and the trendline remain the first hurdle, with 1.1270 as the key ceiling above.
RSI is near 43 and below its signal line around 51, suggesting momentum has turned negative without being oversold. I am leaning slightly bearish as long as EUR/USD stays below 1.1241. A close below 1.1204 would strengthen the downside case, while a sustained break above 1.1270 would invalidate it.
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Technical overview: The -15.9° structural slopeOn the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD remains entrenched in a persistent downward trajectory. The proprietary SMAS Structure Engine projects an invariant downward slope of -15.9°, keeping price action contained along the lower boundary of the 3D volatility conduit.
The current relief bounce from recent lows near 1.1150 has brought the pair to 1.1221. However, this upward retracement is encountering a multi-layered barrier of institutional supply, indicating that buying momentum represents temporary liquidity absorption rather than an authentic trend reversal.
Multi-timeframe telemetry (Structure balance 3D)The real-time Structure Balance 3D matrix registers an aggregate reading of BEARS: -20%, with 10 of 13 monitored timeframes locked in negative territory:
Micro-intraday horizon: Acute downward pressure continues on M2 (-39°), M3 (-38°), and M5 (-25°).Intermediate & swing frames: The primary directional bias is reinforced by negative readings across M30 (-6°), H2 (-11°), H3 (-24°), and the benchmark H4 frame (-16°).Relief drivers: Mild counter-trend momentum is observed strictly on M15 (+13°) and H1 (+15°), reflecting the short-term pullback into local resistance.Macro horizon: While the weekly baseline remains positive (W1 +37°), the daily frame (D1 -26°) continues to exert heavy gravitational pull downward.Order-book massifs and liquidity clusters (Sidebar 3D)The SMAS Sidebar 3D and Cluster Profile reveal severe structural asymmetry:
Overhead Resistance: Price is advancing directly into a multi-tiered ceiling. Immediate resistance is established by an intermediate 6TF cluster (M5-M15-M30-H1-H3-H4) spanning 1.1280–1.1310, backed by a higher 7TF super-cluster at 1.1400–1.1460. The Cluster Profile decodes high limit-order density across this entire band.Underlying Support: The nearest major structural cushion lies at the 7TF demand super-massif (M5-M15-M30-H1-H2-H3-H4) in the 1.1100–1.1150 range, where deep institutional buying previously halted the selloff.Execution setup and tactical outlookWith the -15.9° structural slope intact and 10 of 13 timeframes aligned on the sell side, trading protocol prioritizes short positions on corrective rallies into supply:
Short entry zone: 1.1245 – 1.1270 (testing the lower edge of the 6TF supply massif).Protective stop loss: 1.1325 (placed strictly above the 6TF structural barrier, risking ~55 pips).Take profit 1: 1.1160 (initial profit lock, test of local support; adjust stop to breakeven).Take profit 2: 1.1115 (full rotation into the 7TF institutional demand basin, +130–150 pips).Bullish invalidation: A sustained 4-hour close above 1.1330 would neutralize the immediate bearish vector and trigger a broader recovery toward 1.1420.
The EUR/USD pair trades on a softer note near 1.1225 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. French turmoil and fiscal concerns weigh on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD). Traders await the speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers later in the day, including President Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Joachim Nagel and Piero Cipollone.
France will reinforce police with troops and mount a huge security operation for more protests planned on Saturday as the government acknowledged failures in its response to last weekend's violence, per Reuters. French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu also said there would be fresh curfews “where the situation requires it.”
"The worries in France are not going away anytime soon," said Tommy von Brömsen, FX strategist at Handelsbanken. "The bearish view on France will stay for a while longer, and there's much more euro weakness to be priced in,” Tommy added.
Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair gave no preview about whether he feels more interest rate hikes will be needed or when.
"I don't prejudge meetings," said Warsh during the IMF annual meeting in Bangkok. "I don't believe in saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year,” he added.
Euro seen consolidating as UOB keeps EUR/USD in defined rangeStrategists at UOB Group maintain that EUR/USD remains in a sideways pattern over the near term. Referring back to their latest update from last Friday, when spot was at 1.1215, they reiterate that the Euro “has likely entered a range-trading phase, and for the time being, it is likely to trade between 1.1160 and 1.1280.” UOB continues to “hold the same view for now,” underscoring a preference for consolidation rather than a directional call at this stage.
Warsh flags investment surge and AI focus but avoids pre-committing on policyFed Chair Warsh delivered a moderately constructive but cautious message, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 5.6/10, slightly softer relative to the historical average of 6.1/10 and consistent with a balanced tone. The admission of being "over-scarred from the global financial crisis" underscores a persistent bias toward risk management and financial stability, even as Warsh highlights structural growth and an investment surge driven by "good policies" and refuses to pre-judge upcoming FOMC decisions. The emphasis on AI as a near-term demand-side force and a tool to improve data confidence, alongside plans for an AI field hearing and new Fed task forces, points to a forward-looking stance that could eventually reshape expectations for the Dollar if productivity and inflation dynamics shift.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated level of 127.51, signaling that the speech left the perceived policy stance firmly in hawkish territory despite the non-committal language on future meetings. The combination of a flat FXS Fed Sentiment Index and a slightly lower FXS Speechtracker score suggests markets see no immediate shift in the Fed reaction function, with Warsh’s crisis-scarred caution and focus on financial stability risks reinforcing expectations for a vigilant, data-dependent path rather than a clear dovish pivot.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps a bearish vibe below key resistance levelsIn the daily chart, EUR/USD maintains a bearish near-term bias as spot remains capped beneath the 20-day Bollinger simple moving average and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is also holding below the upper Bollinger band, reinforcing the idea of a market contained within a broader downside structure. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 39.6 sits in bearish territory but above oversold thresholds, hinting at persistent selling pressure rather than exhaustion.
On the downside, the October 19 low of 1.1185 acts as an first support level for the cross, followed by the lower limit of Bollinger band at 1.1115. A clear break below this level would likely open the path for the 1.1000 psychological level and then the May 12, 2025 low of 1.0951.
On the bright side, initial resistance level is located at the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.1252, en route to the upper boundary of Bollinger band near 1.1390. Any follow-through buying above the mentioned level could pave the way to the 100-day SMA at 1.1460.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The Pound-Dollar rate could extend gains if UK inflation strengthens BoE hike expectations, while renewed risk aversion may offer the Dollar some support. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate pushed higher on Tuesday as robust UK labour data bolstered Bank of England (BoE) rate hike bets.
The Pound-New Zealand Dollar could strengthen if UK inflation reinforces BoE hike bets, while softer New Zealand CPI may weigh on the Kiwi.
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate traded sideways on Tuesday as strengthening Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate expectations were offset by the UK’s latest employment figures.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading at around NZ$2.3479. Virtually unchanged from the start of Tuesday's session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.34932 (+0.01%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.973768 (-0.28%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.568233 (+0.30%)
DAILY RECAP:
The New Zealand dollar (NZD) rallied through Tuesday’s Asian session, underpinned by expectations for further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
RBNZ Chief Economist Paul Conway recently indicated that the bank’s upcoming decision could go either way, although he acknowledged that an increase in rates remains more likely than not as he highlighted the inflationary effects of higher global oil prices.
These gains were reinforced by positive risk flows, which continued to be underpinned by broad weakness in the US Dollar (USD).
While left rangebound against the New Zealand Dollar, the Pound (GBP) appreciated against the majority of its other peers on Tuesday, following the publication of the UK’s latest jobs report.
According to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), unemployment in the UK fell from 4.9% to 4.7% in August as the UK economy unexpectedly added 102,000 jobs.
At the same time, annual growth in regular pay, excluding bonuses, accelerated from 3.6% to 3.7% over the same period.
Signs of a more resilient UK labour market were a welcome surprise for Sterling, which caught fresh bids as it further cemented expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will kick-start a new hiking cycle next month.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Rising Inflation to Extend Additional Support to Sterling?
Looking ahead, the Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate may accelerate on Wednesday with the publication of the UK’s latest consumer price index.
September’s CPI figures are forecast to report inflation continues to rise, with price growth expected to accelerate from 3.1% to 3.4% last month.
This will no doubt stoke hawkish BoE expectations and give Sterling another leg up in mid-week trade.
Meanwhile, the publication of New Zealand’s quarterly CPI figures will be in the spotlight for NZD investors late on Wednesday.
However, the data could test recent support for the ‘Kiwi’ if a cooling of inflation in the third quarter dampens RBNZ rate bets.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar is interacting with the 1 (100%) Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is holding on this strong Support Arc, while directional confirmation has not yet been established.
Market outlookPrice is holding on the 1 (100%) Arc, which continues to act as strong support within the current Arc Cycle. However, the market has not yet established a directional bias, and the preferred approach is to await confirmation before anticipating the next significant move.
Gold prices fell in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,530.72 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,546.38 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 146,156.00 per tola from INR 146,338.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,530.72
10 Grams
125,307.30
Tola
146,156.00
Troy Ounce
389,751.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
EUR/JPY halts its four-day winning streak, trading around 177.70 during Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross is consolidating between short-term support and medium-term resistance. The currency cross holds just above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 177.54, while the 50-day EMA at 179.84 caps the topside and keeps the broader bias neutral rather than decisively bullish. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.59 sits below the midline, hinting at modestly soft momentum but not outright oversold conditions.
The EUR/JPY cross tests the immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 177.54. A successful break below the short-term price average would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to test the 11-month low of 175.70, which was recorded in November 2025, followed by the lower boundary of its descending channel around 175.60. If selling pressure intensifies and pushes the currency cross below this confluence support zone, further declines could expose the 14-month low at 169.72.
On the upside, the primary resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel near 178.70, followed by the 50-day EMA of 179.84. A move above the medium-term price average would cause a bullish reversal, opening the doors for the EUR/JPY cross to approach the all-time high of 187.95, reached on April 17.
BoJ’s Ueda flags inflation near target as price pressures buildAnalysts at Danske Bank highlight that in Japan, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda now judges underlying inflation to be "quite close" to the 2% target, pointing to tight labour markets and strong global AI demand as key sources of price pressure.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.07%0.00%0.03%-0.28%0.17%0.15%EUR-0.05%-0.05%-0.05%-0.01%-0.28%0.07%0.05%GBP-0.07%0.05%-0.02%-0.02%-0.23%0.12%0.10%JPY0.00%0.05%0.02%0.03%-0.18%0.14%0.13%CAD-0.03%0.01%0.02%-0.03%-0.22%0.13%0.11%AUD0.28%0.28%0.23%0.18%0.22%0.35%0.32%NZD-0.17%-0.07%-0.12%-0.14%-0.13%-0.35%-0.01%CHF-0.15%-0.05%-0.10%-0.13%-0.11%-0.32%0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) hits a fresh weekly low during the Asian session on Wednesday, with bears still awaiting a sustained break and acceptance below the $4,100 mark before positioning for further losses. Inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices underpin prospects for further policy tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Furthermore, a modest US Dollar (USD) recovery from a nearly three-week low, touched on Tuesday, is seen weighing on the bullion.
Crude oil prices staged a dramatic intraday turnaround from an over one-month peak on Tuesday amid renewed hopes for US-Iran peace talks. In fact, an unconfirmed report said that Qatar and Pakistan had offered a middle-ground plan to the US and Iran that met the demands of both sides. However, Bloomberg later reported that a diplomat involved in US-Iran negotiations disputed news suggesting that a deal was close. Moreover, state media said Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf told Pakistan’s Army Chief, Asim Munir, that the US could not earn Iran’s trust without meeting previously declared conditions, including the cessation of all hostilities and the unfreezing of the country’s assets. This, in turn, tempered expectations of an imminent breakthrough.
Adding to this, Iran’s First Vice President said the country had no choice but to exercise sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, exacerbating worries over crude supply disruptions and assisting oil prices to rebound swiftly from the weekly low. This comes on top of hot US inflation figures, released last week, and reaffirms market bets for an imminent Fed rate hike. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in over a 90% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again in December. Furthermore, the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East crisis offers some support to the safe-haven Greenback, which turns out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on the Gold price for the fourth day in a row and backs the case for deeper losses.
Investors, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting on October 28 and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge due for release on October 29. Apart from this, next week's monetary policy updates from other major central banks – the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), the Bank of Canada (BoC), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) – should provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding Gold. Nevertheless, the broader fundamental backdrop favors XAU/USD bears and suggests that the path of least resistance remains to the downside.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical AnalysisThe overnight failed attempt to clear the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent slide validate the negative outlook. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory with its latest reading at -4.65, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 39.16, reinforcing a weak momentum backdrop without yet signaling oversold conditions. Weakness below the $4,100 mark would reaffirm the bearish bias and expose the monthly swing low, around the $4,066 area.
Some follow-through selling would make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerating the downfall further toward the $4,000 psychological mark en route to the year-to-date low, around the $3,943-$3,942 region, touched in June. On the topside, the 100-period EMA around $4,175 might continue to act as an immediate strong resistance. Sustained strength above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish tone and open the way for a stronger recovery phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Key Points:Fed rate hike expectations keep gold and silver under pressure.Gold could fall towards $4,000 if it breaks below $4,070.Silver could drop towards $50 if it breaks below $55.Gold (XAU) price consolidated around $4,120 on Wednesday and remained under bearish pressure below the $4,200 level. The US dollar began a correction after marking a high at 102.94 and hit 101.50 on Tuesday. The correction came as 10-year US Treasury yields began to correct after reaching a high of 5.36%.
The weakness in the US dollar did not support a rebound in gold and silver (XAG) prices. This is due to higher expectations for a hike in interest rates in December. The expectation for a rate hike in December has increased to around 90% as per the FedWatch Tool.
Oil prices have also remained a major driver of weakness in the gold and silver markets during the past few months. Brent crude oil has rebounded on Wednesday and is consolidating around $111.80. A break above $113 could open the way for Brent oil towards the $120 area.
The strength in Brent oil keeps expectations of a Fed rate hike in focus. This keeps gold and silver prices under pressure. In my view, an easing in oil prices may create a sustainable rebound in the gold and silver markets.
Gold Price Forecast: $4,070 Breakdown Could Expose $4,000
The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is compressing below the 50- and 200-day SMAs and remains under bearish pressure. The recent consolidation zone remains between $4,070 and $4,200. A break below $4,070 will push the price towards the $4,000 area, which is defined by the support of the triangle pattern.
But a break below $4,000 this time will open the way for a drop towards the descending trend line at $3,800 that stretches from the October 2025 highs. The price is required to break above the $4,200 area in the short term to relieve bearish pressure. A break above $4,200 will push the price towards the 50-day SMA at $4,300.
The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows strong price consolidation between $4,070 and $4,200. The price is required to break either of these levels to find the next direction.
However, the consolidation in the tight range in October suggests that the price remains under bearish pressure. Therefore, a break below the ascending trend line at $4,070 may increase the possibility of a breakdown below $4,000.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecasts
Silver Price Forecast: Break Below $55 Could Trigger a Drop to $50
The daily chart for spot silver also shows strong consolidation between the $55 and $63 levels. The price is currently trading at the edge of this triangle pattern and looks to find the next move.
A break above $62 will likely open the way for a rally towards the 200-day SMA at the $72 level. But a confirmed break below $55 will open the way for a further drop towards the $50 area.
The RSI has also hit the oversold region as the silver price hit the $55 support. However, the rebound from $55 is weak and the price still remains under pressure.
The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows strong pressure on silver prices as long as the price remains below the resistance of the descending wedge pattern at $63. A break below $55 will open the way for a quick drop towards the $50 area. This support is defined by the lower boundary of the wedge pattern.
What to Watch Next
Gold and silver remain under pressure as high oil prices keep inflation high and the risk of a Fed rate hike in focus. Gold needs to break above $4,200 to ease bearish pressure while silver needs to clear $62-$63. A break below $4,070 could send gold towards $4,000. A break below $55 in silver could open the way for $50. In my view, the lower oil prices could ease the concerns about inflation and support a recovery in both metals.
Read more: High Treasury Yields Put $4,000 Support in Focus
About the Author
Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.
Dollar index can rise towards 102 while Euro could see limited rise in the near term. USDJPY could rise towards 158/159 while EURJPY can dip to 177/176 while below 178. EURINR looks bearish towards 106/105 while below 107. USDCNY has declined sharply and could be headed lower towards 6.65. Aussie and Pound looks mildly bullish for the near term. Correlation between Brent and USDINR has weakened as the currency pair trades below 95 while Brent is at $110.17. Strong FII interest in the Jio Platforms IPO (to open today) could push USDINR towards 94.50 or lower, making a rise to 95.30–95.50 and especially above 96.00 increasingly difficult, while crude prices could continue to trade higher.
The US Treasury Yields are stable above their support. There is not much room left of the downside. The yields can resume their uptrend either from here itself after some more consolidation or after a dip to test their support. The German Yields have come down again as expected. They can test their support and then resume their broader uptrend. The 10Yr GoI continues to consolidate in a narrow range. The yield can make a bullish breakout of this range and go higher eventually.
Dow can rise towards 53500-54000 while it holds above 51900. DAX needs to hold 25250 to move towards 25800-26000. Nifty can rebound towards 23000 while above 22800, and a decisive break below 22800 can drag it towards 22400. Nikkei needs to stay above 64000 to recover towards 67000, else 62500 comes into view. Shanghai is holding above 3700 with scope for a rebound towards 3800.
Brent and WTI crude prices have rebounded and could rise toward $115 and $105, respectively, amid ongoing uncertainty over efforts to end the Iran war. Gold needs to hold above $4,100 to sustain its potential rally toward $4,300–$4,400, while a break below support could drag it toward $4,000–$3,900. Silver remains vulnerable to a decline toward $52–$50 below $60. Copper could rise toward $6.70–$6.80 if immediate support holds, while natural gas may extend its decline toward $2.85–$2.80 amid forecasts of above-average autumn temperatures in the US.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
The British pound has rallied to a four-week high as resilient UK employment data and hawkish Bank of England expectations support sterling ahead of today's inflation report. With a November BoE rate hike almost fully priced in, it may require an upside inflation surprise to provide another tailwind. GBP/USD bulls are eyeing a break above the 200-day EMA, while GBP/AUD shows signs of a potentially larger bullish reversal.
View related analysis:
Canadian Dollar Defies CPI Miss as Inflation Expectations Rise: USD/CAD, AUD/CAD
FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Bulls Face Crowded FX Shorts
AUD/USD: Are Record Short Bets a Breakout Signal or Sentiment Extreme?
Gold Hints at Quiet Accumulation Despite Persistent US Dollar Strength
British Pound Strengthens Ahead of UK CPI as BoE Rate Hike Looms
UK Employment Resilience Keeps November BoE Hike on Track
The Bank of England (BOE) remains on track to hike in November after Tuesday's employment report provided further evidence of a resilient UK economy. Unemployment fell to 4.7% from 4.9% in September according to ONS, payroll employment rose by 13,000 in September, and regular wage growth reached 3.7% y/y, above expectations. That said, vacancies fell to 691,000, suggesting underlying labour demand remains subdued despite the headline improvement.
Money markets have almost fully priced in a 25bp hike to 4% on 5 November, with further tightening expected into 2027. BoE policymaker Megan Greene added to the hawkish narrative on Tuesday, warning that the risks of second-round inflation effects are greater than previously thought and reiterating the need for pre-emptive tightening. Her comments contrast with Governor Andrew Bailey's more cautious assessment that such pressures remain relatively subdued, highlighting divisions over how aggressively the BoE may need to respond.
Attention now turns to today's September CPI report, where headline inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.4% y/y from 3.1%. An upside surprise could reinforce sterling's interest-rate advantage, while softer inflation would challenge the extent of tightening currently priced into UK rates.
GBP/USD Technical Outlook: British Pound Eyes Further Gains
Sterling has rallied to a four-week high ahead of today’s inflation figures, fuelled by improving employment and wage data alongside scaled-back Fed rate bets. But GBP/USD bulls had to ride out a quick retest of the June low before the bullish reversal I hypothesised could get underway.
While resistance has been met around the 200-day EMA and 1.34 handle, the RSI (14) is back above 50 and nowhere near overbought. As we’re witnessing range expansion from a multi-week compression pattern at the end of a selloff, I suspect GBP/USD could have further to go to the upside. The RSI (2) warns of near-term exhaustion, though bulls may be seeking dips above 1.33 in anticipation of a break above the 200-day EMA.
Note the 1.3475 low and September VPOC at 1.3543 as potential upside targets for bulls.
Source: ICE, TradingView
GBP/AUD Technical Outlook: Inverse Head and Shoulders in Focus
Whether the inverted head and shoulders pattern on the weekly chart goes on to succeed remains to be seen, but it could take several weeks or months to play out if it does. Until then, I am focusing on whether we at least see the completion of the ‘right shoulder’ (RS) of the long-term bullish reversal pattern. This assumes a move higher towards the neckline around the June and March highs.
The daily GBP/AUD chart shows an explosive move out of a bull flag, though resistance was met around the 200-day EMA and monthly pivot point. Bulls could be seeking dips above the swing low around 1.859, though the monthly pivot point, high-volume node (HVN) and 1.90 handle also form a potential support zone to seek bullish reversal patterns.
Gold faces a pivotal technical test as $4,217 resistance and $4,066 support define the next move, with a confirmed bullish reversal potentially opening the path toward $4,820.
Over recent trading sessions, the British pound has begun to show a notable recovery. This can be observed in the performance of GBP/USD, which has gained more than 1.3% over the last four sessions, reflecting a consistent improvement in sterling's strength against the U.S. dollar.
Gold (XAU/USD) drifts lower on Tuesday even as US Treasury yields dive and the US Dollar weakens, with a light US economic docket mostly ignored by investors ahead of Federal Reserve’s (Fed) meeting next week. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades at $4,122, down over 0.43%.
XAU/USD slips despite weaker Dollar and yields as central banks signal further tighteningOverall, bullion is poised to consolidate further after last week’s remarks by Fed officials that they are not in a rush to hike rates in October, which investors considered. Consequently, money markets have priced in a 14% chance for an October Fed hike, but for December, the odds are near 90%, according to Prime Terminal.
Fed interest rate probability - Source: Prime TerminalThis week, the US economic schedule is very light. Fed officials commenced their blackout period, which will end with Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference on October 28.
Meanwhile, investors are leaning on US housing data, which showed the effect of higher US bond yields: high mortgage rates are the main reason US Pending Home Sales collapsed by 7.3% in September. Ahead in the week, investors eye Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on Thursday, forecast to rise from 199K to 200K. Alongside this, S&P Global Flash PMIs will provide an update on sentiment among businesses in the US, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will release its final reading for October.
Major central banks expected to increase ratesIn the meantime, officials from major central banks are signaling further monetary policy tightening, a headwind for Gold, which usually fares well in low-interest-rate environments.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda recognized that core inflation is “quite close” to the 2% goal, though hinted at further rate hikes. Bank of England (BoE) Megan Greene said that the risks of second-round inflation effects are higher than thought, adding that the current policy stance “is not restrictive enough.”
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold pressured below $4,200, eyes on $4,100Gold trades laterally within $ 4,100 and $4,200, extending its losses for the third straight day, even though it has shown signs of bottoming out near the lower end of the range. Nevertheless, uncertainty continues to weigh on bullion prices, with speculation that the Fed could raise rates in December.
Momentum favors further downside as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish, although it has flattened somewhat.
For a bearish continuation, sellers must clear $4,100. Once surpassed, the next stop is the October 14 low at $4,073, ahead of the July 29 cycle low at $3,996. On further weakness, the next areas of interest are the July 17 low at $3,959 and the year-to-date (YTD) low at $3,941.
For a bullish reversal, XAU/USD’s first resistance is $4,200, followed by the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,235. Above sits the 50-day SMA at $4,321, with the $4,500 mark above it.
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The topic for this week's webinar is topography matters, speaking to the value of longer-term charts for directional impulse, even for traders executing shorter-term strategies.
Sterling has regained its footing following the sharp September decline, with the latest rebound bringing GBP/USD to an important technical inflection point. While the near-term outlook has improved, buyers still face considerable hurdles before a more durable low can be confirmed.
As the trading week continues to unfold, the lack of direction dominating gold price action remains a relevant theme in the short term. In fact, the average move over the last three trading sessions has resulted in a decline of barely 1.0%, highlighting that neither buyers nor sellers have been able to take control in a consistent manner.
The XAU/USD pair entered a consolidative stage at the end of September, which extends to these days despite fluctuating US Dollar (USD) demand. For the most part, the Greenback has outperformed most major rivals on bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will have no choice but to keep hiking interest rates after delivering a modest 25 basis points (bps) hike when it met in September.
Big picture vs near-term pictureThat demand for the precious metal took a turn for the worse is no news. Gold has edged lower five of the last seven months and, throughout the current one, has been unable to attract any meaningful interest.
True, a floor appears around the $4,000 psychological threshold, with dips below the level attracting buyers, which, anyway, are far from enough to revive the glorious bullish trend.
US government bond yields have reached multi-decade highs amid concerns about upcoming rate hikes due to untamed inflation. The latter has to do with soaring energy prices resulting from the Middle East war, pushing Oil prices up. Meanwhile, investors are concerned about whether the AI tech frenzy went too far.
The near-term trend, or better said, the lack of one, seems related to easing United States (US)Treasury yields and a retracement in Oil prices. The better performance of Wall Street in the middle of an earnings season amid a bounce in chipmakers adds up for sure.
US mid-term elections around the cornerAnd while investors are already chewing more than they can swallow, a gentle reminder: the US mid-term elections are taking place in roughly two weeks. Approval for US President Donald Trump is at an all-time low of 32%, according to a September Reuters poll, not a surprise after recent data showed that gas prices jumped more than 9% in September from August, accounting for more than half of the month’s overall price increase.
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Whether Republicans can or cannot retain Congress will define whether the USD stays on a bullish path, even against the precious metal. A Republican victory would keep President Trump in the driver’s seat, meaning no changes in the political or fiscal paths.
If Democrats take over the House and/or the Senate, however, Trump will have less control over federal spending. Uncertainty surrounding the Middle East is likely to increase, alongside inflationary pressures, taking a toll on economic growth. The Fed may have to act expeditiously, resulting in Chair Kevin Warsh losing credibility and probably facing Trump’s anger.
In such a scenario, USD demand may lose steam, but for Gold, it would hardly mean a recovery towards record highs. XAU/USD can recover at most to the $4,500 region, where the pair topped in September.
But rest assured, it won’t be a smooth run, but a painful one. The likelihood of things going downhill fast and furious just because of the mid-term elections’ outcome is quite low.
The next inevitable and temporal stopWhile speculative interest pared back bets on higher Gold prices, investors remain wary about selling the precious metal. Uncertainty, indeed, tends to at least keep safe-haven assets afloat. But given that uncertainty won’t clear up anytime soon, the current scenario, in which Gold will slowly but steadily grind lower, should prevail.
The $4,000 barrier is still strong enough to attract some shy buying interest, but the stop around the level should be temporary, with lower lows likely once the Fed delivers its next hike. And it will happen, no doubt about that.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret see the British Pound (GBP) supported by stronger-than-expected UK labour data. Unemployment fell to 4.7% versus 4.9% expected, while earnings excluding bonuses rose 3.7%, reinforcing Bank of England (BoE) tightening expectations. Technically, the strategists identify a potential bull flag on the short-term GBP/USD chart, suggesting scope for further gains following a strong bullish weekly reversal.
Solid UK data underpin bullish structure"UK data for August showed Unemployment of 4.7%, below forecasts of 4.9%, while Average Hourly Earnings data were in line with (or slightly above) expectations. Earnings ex-bonuses rose 3.7% in the 3m through August, above calls for a 3.6% gain."
"The data reinforced BoE tightening expectations and gave the GBP a modest lift on the day. The BoE’s Megan Greene speaks at 13ET. In recent remarks, Greene has focused on the risk of second round effects emerging in price trends, suggesting the Bank should “proactively” lean against them."
"Greene, alongside Pill and Mann have supported tightener policy since the summer and look set to get their wish at the November 5th MPC. "
"Bullish – The GBP is consolidating gains on the short-term chart via a potential bull flag pattern. That development keeps our focus on the risk of gains extending quite significantly in the short run after the solid GBP rise from last Wednesday’s post-US CPI low drove a huge bullish weekly reversal on the chart (outside range week)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Gains Against Dollar as Japan Inflation Test Approaches Westpac expects the Japanese Yen to recover against the US Dollar through 2027, with inflation figures testing the case for further BoJ rate rises. The US Dollar-to-Yen exchange rate fell to ¥158.07 on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% on the day.
Silver Prices Rebound Above $58 as BofA's $75 Outlook Faces a Solar Test BofA expects silver prices to recover in 2027, but manufacturers' efforts to use less of the metal leave investment demand carrying more of the burden. The silver price in US dollars rose 2.2% to $58.13 an ounce on Tuesday, recovering some ground after last week's inflation-driven losses.
Bank of America projects $75 for the second and third quarters of 2027, but its nearer-term forecast of $55 for the final quarter of 2026 allows for renewed weakness.
The bank's industrial assessment is cautious: "We expect a surplus in 2026, and further out, the fundamental outlook is less clear cut on a risk that silver substitution accelerates."
Solar expansion is no guarantee of silver demand BofA says: "The silver market has rebalanced on production discipline and demand from new applications including solar panels."
Its concern is how much metal each new installation requires: "Spending on solar panels has boosted silver demand, but a shift in technology likely reduces consumption by 11% in 2026."
That warning concerns solar-related consumption, rather than an 11% fall in total industrial demand.
Fraunhofer ISE's pilot work reduced silver use in a widely produced solar-cell design to roughly a tenth of typical levels, using copper for most electrical conduction.
"So-called nickel/copper electroplating could be firmly established in the photovoltaic market within two to three years," researcher Sven Kluska said in April.
The Silver Institute's annual outlook also warned: "Industrial demand is projected to decline by 3 percent, chiefly due to a further and marked slowdown in PV offtake."
That April assessment still anticipated a market deficit, unlike BofA's more recent surplus forecast.
A greater role for investment buying The sell-off following last week's US inflation figures showed how interest-rate expectations can overwhelm the industrial story.
Higher yields make interest-bearing assets more attractive relative to silver, which pays no income.
BofA sees scope for a change in what drives prices: "Silver could trade more like a precious metal".
It identifies returning investors and stronger Chinese imports as upside risks, with fund liquidation and additional supply on the downside.
Silver Price Forecast FAQ When does BofA expect silver at $75?
Its forecast is $75 an ounce for the second and third quarters of 2027, rather than an immediate target.
Why is solar demand a concern?
Manufacturers are reducing the amount of silver used in solar cells, potentially weakening demand even as installations increase.
Does BofA expect a silver shortage this year?
No. Its latest assessment anticipates a surplus in 2026 and identifies faster substitution as a risk further ahead.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold Price Holds Above $4,100 as HSBC Defends Its Longer-Term Role HSBC sees lasting support for gold from reserve diversification, but forced selling can overwhelm that demand while higher interest rates weigh. The gold price in US dollars held around $4,134 an ounce at 15:19 BST on Tuesday, leaving bullion roughly 5.4% lower over the past month despite continuing demand for protection against fiscal and geopolitical risks.
HSBC Asset Management remains positive about gold's longer-term role, but cautions that the metal may offer little protection during an abrupt equity sell-off.
Bank of America's forecasts allow for that difficult near-term period: it projects $4,000 an ounce for the fourth quarter of 2026 before $5,000 in the second and third quarters of 2027.
Why gold can fall when investors seek safety HSBC writes: “But recent market action has shown gold failing to hedge against equity drawdowns. With leveraged capital crowded into gold, tumbling stocks trigger margin calls that force investors to unwind positions to raise cash.”
Gold can therefore be sold to meet losses in other markets, rather than because its owners have abandoned concerns about government debt or the purchasing power of currencies.
Evidence from September shows how different groups of buyers and sellers can pull prices in opposing directions.
The World Gold Council recorded $10bn of global gold ETF inflows during the month, yet managed-money net futures positions contracted by $12bn.
The council said: “This futures liquidation likely contributed to September’s price decline, highlighting the divergence between ETF and derivatives market flows.”
The council also identified rising Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar as pressures on bullion.
The figures do not measure the same transactions and should not be netted against one another, but they show why evidence of buying alone cannot establish that prices have found a floor.
HSBC cautions: "So although gold looks to be a robust hedge against systemic risks in a “multi-polar” world, it’s not guaranteed to work as a short-term volatility dampener."
The buyers behind the longer-term case HSBC says “there is still a compelling strategic rationale for the metal in portfolios as geopolitical fragmentation and central bank reserve diversification keep demand supported.”
It adds: "The “debasement trade” of shifting capital into “hard assets” such as gold can continue as concerns over debt and inflation linger."
That argument concerns demand to reduce exposure to currencies and government liabilities over time.
The World Gold Council's latest central-bank figures provide some support: reported net purchases reached 39 tonnes in August, with established buyers continuing their accumulation programmes.
Those purchases predate the latest market turbulence, so they cannot demonstrate how official buyers have responded to October's decline.
HSBC offers no numerical gold target in this assessment.
BofA continues to project an uneven path towards $5,000, with weakness before the stronger part of 2027.
Its metals team identifies the immediate obstacles: “The Iran war, higher oil prices, rising rates and a stronger USD are near-term headwinds.”
Higher interest rates increase the income forgone by holding bullion, while expensive energy can delay relief by sustaining inflation and pressure for further tightening.
BofA nevertheless says: “The wider macro environment, including the US’ unorthodox economic policies are ultimately supportive.”
The bank adds: “The hawkish Fed tilt will likely cap prices near-term”.
Gold Price FAQ Does HSBC have a gold price target?
Its assessment makes a positive longer-term case for gold without setting a numerical target.
When does BofA expect gold at $5,000?
BofA projects $5,000 an ounce for the second and third quarters of 2027, following a weaker fourth quarter of 2026.
Why can gold fall despite demand for safe assets?
Leveraged investors may sell gold to meet demands for cash elsewhere, while higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding it.
USD/NGN Forecast: Goldman Sees Further Naira Gains by October 2027
Goldman Sachs sees further Nigerian Naira gains as reserves and investment inflows offer support, although central-bank policy could slow the advance.
The US Dollar-to-Nigerian Naira exchange rate stood near 1,328.22 in Tuesday's 11:53 market reading, down about 0.4% from Monday's close.
Goldman's 12-month projection of 1,250, roughly October 2027, would put the Dollar about 5.9% below that rate.
It has kept the levels discussed in September's Naira forecast upgrade, without another forecast revision.
Strong inflows, restrained appreciation
Unlike energy-importing economies, Nigeria benefits from higher oil export prices, which strengthen its supply of foreign currency.
Goldman's analysts write: "On the other side of the terms-of-trade shock, we remain constructive on the Nigerian Naira."
"The recent stable currency path suggests that the central bank is still leaning against the currency appreciation pressures from historically elevated FX reserves, higher oil prices and continued portfolio inflows in high-carry instruments, and in line with our 3-month forecast at 1,300, we continue to see potential for spot upside from here given current levels at ~1,330."
Goldman's reference to 1,330 predates Tuesday's quote.
Buying incoming foreign currency to build reserves can slow Naira appreciation, leaving stronger external finances without an equivalent immediate gain in the exchange rate.
Nairametrics reports: "Nigeria's external reserves stood at $55.07 billion as of October 9, 2026."
Inflation and interest income remain important
Nigeria's September inflation rate fell to 14.63% from 15.39%, providing further evidence of disinflation after the CBN reset its policy rate to 23%.
The central bank characterised September's change as an operational realignment to improve policy transmission, rather than a change in its underlying stance.
Its statement, carried by Proshare, said: "Members believe the current macroeconomic environment supports such a recalibration without undermining the disinflation process."
For the currency, the relevant question is whether Nigerian assets continue attracting foreign investment as actual market yields and inflation evolve.
A retreat in foreign inflows would weaken the appreciation case before policymakers permit a faster currency rise.
Nigerian Naira Outlook FAQ
What is Goldman's Dollar-to-Naira forecast?
Goldman projects USD/NGN at 1,250 over 12 months, approximately October 2027, implying Naira appreciation.
Is this a new forecast upgrade?
No. The bank has retained its latest numerical projections while becoming more selective about frontier currencies.
What could slow the Naira's gains?
Official resistance to appreciation could limit the pace, while weaker foreign investment flows would reduce one of the supports identified by Goldman.
EUR/USD Forecast: Euro Rates Edge Higher as French Bond Risks Limit Recovery Scotiabank sees the Euro struggling to build momentum against the US Dollar as French bond tensions offset support from a weaker American currency. The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate recovered to 1.1230 on Tuesday, up 0.15%, but remained below Friday's closing level.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.122745 (+0.12%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.337252 (+0.47%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.20857 (-0.20%)
Scotiabank's assessment is neutral, with French borrowing concerns limiting the currency's ability to benefit from broader Dollar weakness.
Earlier, with EUR/USD at 1.1212, Scotiabank said: "The EUR is lagging its major currency peers on the day, weighed down by tensions in Eurozone government bond markets."
Scotiabank put the gap between French and German 10-year government bond yields near 150 basis points, equivalent to 1.5 percentage points, reflecting France's social and fiscal tensions.
That premium represents the extra yield investors demand to hold French debt rather than German bonds, making it a measure of concern about France's finances.
German improvement offers limited reassurance Germany's October ZEW survey showed a better assessment of current conditions, at minus 35.9, alongside a fall in expectations to 28.1.
ZEW president Achim Wambach said: "The German economy is slowly emerging from stagnation, but the recovery is not self-sustaining."
The institute identified high energy prices as a restraint on household spending and investment, through pressure on purchasing power and production costs.
Scotiabank also cautioned against treating the survey as a direct measure of economic activity: "The survey of financial professionals tends to be heavily weighted by market, rather than economic, developments but generally indicates the economy remains in "slow recovery" mode."
EUR/USD recovery needs stronger momentum Last week's rebound from support in the low 1.11s had raised hopes that an oversold Euro could stabilise.
Scotiabank now sees that opportunity struggling to develop:
"Sentiment and momentum are soft, preventing the EUR from taking advantage of the generally weaker USD tone and leveraging the bullish impulse that developed on the weekly chart last week-at least for now."
Scotiabank's support and resistance levels apply to intraday trading, rather than quarter-end forecasts.
"Intraday support is 1.1175/80. Resistance is 1.1275", Scotiabank says.
EUR/USD Exchange Rate FAQ Is Scotiabank bullish on EUR/USD?
Its latest short-term assessment is neutral, with weak momentum preventing last week's bullish signal from developing further.
Which EUR/USD levels is Scotiabank watching?
The bank identifies intraday support at 1.1175-1.1180 and resistance at 1.1275.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Silver (XAG/USD) rebounds on Tuesday, trading around $57.90 at the time of writing, up 1.35% on the day. The precious metal benefits from a weaker US Dollar (USD) and declining US Treasury yields, as reports of potential diplomatic progress between the United States (US) and Iran triggered a sharp retreat in Oil prices, before being disproved.
Israel's Channel 12 initially announced that a compromise proposal presented by Pakistan's army chief to Iranian officials has reportedly received preliminary approval from both Washington and Tehran. These developments raised hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough that could ease tensions in the Middle East and reduce disruptions to global energy supplies. However, a diplomat involved in the negotiations subsequently denied reports that an agreement was imminent, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding the discussions.
Oil prices reacted sharply to the initial reports, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil retreating toward $97.40 at the time of press after briefly exceeding $100 earlier in the day. This decline reduces concerns about persistent energy-driven inflation, which has intensified since the outbreak of the conflict in late February.
The prospect of lower energy prices also puts downward pressure on US Treasury yields and the Greenback, creating a more favorable environment for non-yielding assets such as Silver.
However, the recovery in Silver could face headwinds from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Recent US inflation data have reinforced expectations that policymakers could raise interest rates again before the end of the year.
Both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) for September exceeded market expectations, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures. Although the recent decline in Oil prices could alleviate some of these concerns, energy costs remain elevated compared with levels prevailing before the conflict.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently assign a 17% chance to a rate hike at the October 27-28 Fed meeting, while the chance of an increase in December stands at approximately 92%.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on Thursday's Initial Jobless Claims and Friday's preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) readings for October. With Fed officials observing their blackout period ahead of next week's monetary policy decision, these releases could influence expectations for future interest rate increases and determine whether Silver can extend its recovery.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The French-German yield spread widened further this morning, crude oil prices continued to rise and the tech sector came under renewed pressure again. We also had some weaker German investor sentiment data. Against that backdrop, the EUR/USD forecast remains tilted to the downside, and a visit of 1.1000 is still on the cards, despite today’s small recovery.
Risk appetite remains downbeat
European stocks and US index futures have fallen again today. Several of the broader risks weighing on equities and other risk assets remain unresolved. Energy prices are still on the rise on concerns over a renewed escalation in the Middle East, while lingering doubts over the economics and financing of the AI data-centre boom remain in focus. French bond spreads are also widening as investors become increasingly sceptical about the country’s ability to deliver meaningful fiscal consolidation.
Against that backdrop, it is difficult to make a convincing bullish case for equities or the EUR/USD forecast. At the same time, the unresolved risks mean there is still a decent argument for keeping some exposure to the dollar. The next few days of earnings and geopolitical headlines could therefore prove important for determining whether the recent equity weakness develops into something more significant, and whether that could give rise to fresh dollar demand amid increased haven flows.
Dollar’s downside should be limited
Energy remains the bigger issue for the EUR/USD forecast. Oil prices are holding at elevated levels as traders continue to price the risk of renewed US or Israeli action against Iran ahead of the US midterm elections.
As long as energy prices remain high, there is less scope for Treasury yields to fall significantly, which in turn limits the downside for the dollar.
At the same time, higher energy prices are weighing on the appeal of the euro and other currencies where the economy relies on energy imports.
France-Germany yield spread widens
French fiscal concerns provide another source of support for the dollar. With French spreads continuing to widen, investors are becoming less convinced that Paris can deliver a credible path towards fiscal consolidation.
Source: TradingView.com
For now, the balance of risks therefore still favours buying the dollar on dips, keeping the EUR/USD forecast bearish particularly as energy prices remain elevated and French political and fiscal tensions intensify.
German investor sentiment weakens
The economic backdrop is also becoming less supportive. German ZEW sentiment fell more than expected to 28.1 from 34.7, suggesting that business optimism is beginning to reflect the combination of political uncertainty, high energy costs and weaker growth prospects.
Friday’s eurozone flash PMIs will offer a broader test, although a modest deterioration is unlikely to be enough on its own to trigger serious alarm.
For EUR/USD, the key point is that a period of consolidation after September’s sharp decline would not be surprising. But consolidation is not the same as a convincing recovery. With French fiscal risks, elevated energy prices and softer economic sentiment all weighing on the euro, the fundamental case for a sustained rebound remains weak.
EUR/USD forecast: Technical analysis and key levels to watch
The EUR/USD has struggled to climb above the key short term resistance area between 1.1250 to 1.1270 zone. Here the pair has repeatedly found some offers. Yet, after the big falls, the downside has been contained in more recent days. The consolidation is hardly surprising but without a major fundamental shift, we could see the euro take another leg lower soon. Rates have already broken a short term bullish trend line observed on the hourly time frame, below:
Source: TradingView.com
The above macro concerns and the trend break is leaving the EURUSD chart vulnerable to another leg lower if the French or geopolitical backdrop deteriorates further. From here 1.1100 is the next downside target for the bears and then the psychological 1.10 handle thereafter.
A potential break above 1.1250/70 meanwhile could see the pair go for a test of the longer term resistance near 1.1325 to 1.1355.
Silver remains neutral within its $55–$60 demand zone as improving industrial production clashes with rising U.S. real yields and uneven demand signals.
EUR/USD technical analysis shows the euro rebounding off major long-term support after a five-week slide, while its broader downtrend stays intact. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through the euro's monthly, weekly, daily and four-hour charts and the momentum signals behind the move.
