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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Likely find direction after US CPI data

Gold falls as inflation fears and high Oil prices weigh on the precious metal

USD/JPY Price Forecast: US Dollar recovery, likely to be tested at 155.20

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Positive Divergence with RSI backs further recovery

Euro: Downside risks while 1.1585 holds against US Dollar – UOB

The Pound-New Zealand Dollar could come under pressure if UK GDP stalls, although a weaker New Zealand PMI may limit support for the Kiwi. The Pound New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate retreated from Wednesday's one-week high on Thursday, as the ‘Kiwi’ attracted some dip-buying.

At the time of writing, GBP/NZD traded at NZ$2.3172, down marginally from the previous day’s close.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.331018 (+0.55%)

Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 2.00304 (+0.61%)

New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.579551 (-0.84%)

DAILY RECAP:

After touching one-week lows against many of its peers on Wednesday evening, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) managed to crawl up from its worst levels on Thursday.

The upside came from some dip-buying, as price-conscious investors sought to pick up a bargain on NZD.

Traders were also unperturbed by a mixed market mood, with the risk-sensitive currency able to recoup losses despite a broader lack of risk appetite.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) found itself subdued on Thursday as the ongoing lack of UK economic data kept the currency confined to a narrow range.

Movement in Sterling was also muted by the looming UK GDP figures, with GBP investors seeming reluctant to alter their positions ahead of the week’s key economic release.

Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Stalling UK GDP to Dent Sterling? Looking ahead, the UK’s latest GDP figures are in focus for GBP investors on Friday.

Markets expect growth to have stalled in July. Such a lacklustre start to the third quarter could weigh on the Pound, as it would raise fresh concerns about the health of the British economy and potentially dampen Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets.

As for NZD, New Zealand's latest manufacturing PMI is due out on Thursday night. A decent reading could lend the ‘Kiwi’ support through Friday’s Asian trade session.

Risk appetite will likely also influence the currency, with the New Zealand Dollar potentially struggling if an anxious market mood prevails.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Fed hike bets rise as traders await U.S. CPI, with DXY testing 99.16 resistance while EUR/USD and GBP/USD remain under pressure.

Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

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Current setup Bias: bullish.

Any cautious bullishness at the start of the week has cascaded very quickly into all out bullishness on the GBP/INR. The currency pair started the week at 128.9, recovering from a period of recent weakness. However, it is fast approaching its 52-week high near 131.15 soar towards $109 per barrel.

The major driver for this pair is the renewed pressure on the Indian rupee as Brent crude now trades well above the $100 psychological benchmark previously identified as a tipping point for emerging market FX pairs whose nations depended on crude imports. India is the third largest oil importer in the world, and rising crude prices make it more expensive for the country to purchase imported energy products. This is particularly negative for the rupee and has driven the 4-day winning streak on the GBP/INR.

Macro Drivers Behind the GBP/INR Recent Moves 1) Sharp Rise in Oil Prices The rupee has taken a hefty pounding this week as Brent crude soared above the $100 tipping point. The sharp rise in oil prices has raised India’s import bill and worsened its terms of trade. The geopolitical risk premium is fully on and is as good as back to the levels it was when the war broke out. As things stand, the GBP/INR is now an oil-trade currency pair.

↑ Oil →  ↑ rupee pressure → ↑ GBP/INR

2) RBI intervention limits the rupee’s downside The RBI’s managed float system requires it to intervene to prevent disorderly and excessive rupee weakness. Reports have it that the RBI has been intervening directly and also by using FX swaps to manage the rupee’s weakness. This only slows a GBP/INR rally without reversing the tide as long as Brent crude stays above $100 a barrel.

3) Bank of England Expectations The BoE has only become a factor due to next week’s interest rate decision. Markets will have to assess the impact of elevated oil prices on UK inflation and whether this has been enough to force the BoE’s MPC into hawkish action to contain any imported inflation. A higher-for-longer rate outlook amid rupee weakness due to the geopolitical risk premium sends the pair soaring.

GBP/INR: Forecast Scenarios Base case: GBP/INR now has a firm bullish bias as long as Brent stays above $100. The next target lies at $114-$115 for Brent crude, and this puts the GBP/INR on the verge of a break of the $129.24 resistance.

Bull case: any further escalations within the geopolitical sphere that leads to Brnt crude topping $114 per barrel could lead to a further push towards 130+ in the GBP/INR.

Bear case: geopolitical de-escalation will lead to a sharp decline in crude oil prices. In this scenario, rupee strength will lead to a pullback of the GBP/INR toward 127.50–128.00.

Technical Outlook Resistance: 129.14, followed by 130.07 and 130.88.

Support: 127.68, followed by 126.69.

Fig 1: GBP/INR daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot: 11 September 2026) The active daily candle is now trading above the 129.14 resistance, and if the candle achieves a daily close above this barrier, it confirms the breakout move initiated by the prior day’s candle. The break of 129.14 unlocks access to the 130.07 resistance (11 May and 20 May highs), leaving this as the only barrier before a retest of the all-time high at 130.88 (21 August high).

On the flip side, a decline below 129.14 makes a case for a pullback towards 127.68 (18 May and 5 August low), before the 126.69 support becomes the next available downside target.

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Softens to near 179.00, bearish bias remains intact below 100-day SMA

Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

Morning briefing: EUR/USD sees near-term weakness against the US Dollar

Gold eyes $4,300 break as USD sticks to gains amid Fed hike bets, ahead of US CPI

TL;DR: Gold and Silver are both falling as oil-driven yields lift Fed hike expectations, but Silver is losing twice—once through the same rate pressure hitting Gold, and again through its industrial-demand exposure—a divergence the Gold/Silver ratio has just confirmed with a decisive breakout.

Oil Shock Broadens as Bab el-Mandeb Comes Into Focus Gold and Silver are being hit by the same macro shock, but not with the same force. Oil is surging, Treasury yields are approaching new multi-year extremes, and markets have sharply raised the probability of a September Fed hike. Gold is struggling under that pressure. Silver is struggling even more—and the Gold/Silver ratio has now broken the downtrend that contained it for weeks.

The latest escalation has broadened the oil risk beyond the Strait of Hormuz. Iran-aligned Houthi militants seized Yemen’s port of Mocha on Thursday and are attacking the strategic Hanish islands, bringing Bab el-Mandeb—the southern gateway to the Red Sea—more directly into focus. The significance is that Saudi Arabia has relied on Red Sea routes as an alternative while Hormuz remains impaired. A credible threat to that route introduces a second strategic chokepoint into an oil market already dealing with severe disruption.

Brent reached $109.97 on Friday, a four-month high, while WTI climbed to $104.32, leaving crude up around 13% for the week. RBC Capital Markets Head of Global Commodity Strategy Helima Croft warned that maritime traffic through Bab el-Mandeb is “gravely imperiled” and said Brent could reach $121.99 later this year if a full-scale Saudi-Houthi war resumes. Separately, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore sees the possibility of WTI retesting its March high around $119.48. The two scenarios use different reasoning and neither makes $120 inevitable, but both illustrate how much the distribution of oil risks has shifted.

Oil Pushes Yields and Fed Hike Expectations Higher The transmission into precious metals is coming through rates. The US 10-year Treasury yield has climbed to around 4.970%, just below the psychological 5% level and its highest in roughly three years. The 30-year is around 5.380%, near a 19-year high, while the 2-year surged 12bp in the latest overnight move to 4.583%.

Fed pricing has moved with it. Ahead of Friday’s CPI release, markets were assigning a 72.4% probability to a 25bp hike at the September 16 meeting, up from 61.2% a day earlier and 49.4% a week before. That rapid repricing matters directly for Gold and Silver: higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals, while stronger expectations for Fed tightening remove part of the monetary support that had previously helped the complex.

Oil didn’t start the Treasury selloff, but its renewed surge is reinforcing it. That leaves precious metals facing a combination of higher inflation risk, higher yields, and a more hawkish expected Fed path at the same time.

Gold Is More Resilient Than Silver, Not Strong in Absolute Terms Gold has held up better than Silver, but that distinction needs to remain relative. Gold isn’t behaving like an unambiguous safe haven in absolute terms. It fell sharply during the latest escalation and has captured only part of the demand that might normally be expected during a widening geopolitical shock.

Silver has an additional vulnerability. Like Gold, it suffers when yields rise and Fed tightening is repriced. But its industrial character also leaves it more exposed when a war-driven inflation shock broadens into weaker risk sentiment and concern over economically sensitive demand.

That doesn’t contradict the industrial-demand argument that supported Silver earlier this week. Structural industrial consumption can still provide a longer-term floor. In the shorter-term shock now dominating markets, however, the same industrial exposure creates additional cyclical sensitivity.

Put differently, Silver is being pressured through two channels at once: the yield problem it shares with Gold and an industrial-risk channel that Gold largely avoids.

The Gold/Silver Ratio Breaks the Downtrend The Gold/Silver ratio provides the clearest technical evidence of that relative shift. After reaching a recent low of 64.69, the ratio has surged to around 68.28 and broken above the descending trendline connecting the prior 71.15, 69.28, and 67.64 swing highs.

That’s materially different from the earlier rebound toward 67.64, which failed at resistance. The ratio is now also firmly above its 55-period 4H EMA around 66.77, while MACD has turned sharply positive and RSI has risen to 68.56.

The breakout still needs confirmation. The important next test is whether former channel resistance around roughly 67.5–68.0 turns into support on a pullback. If it does, the case for a structural shift toward further Silver underperformance would strengthen. A fall back through the trendline and into the old channel would instead suggest the move was an aggressive mean-reversion rebound rather than a durable change.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: Targets 4,282.23, With 4,230.70–4,200 Below Gold’s near-term technical picture remains bearish. Price at around 4,323.69 is below the falling 55-period 4H EMA near 4,413.19, after the latest rebound was rejected around that dynamic resistance. MACD continues to fall in negative territory, while RSI at 36.02 confirms weak momentum without yet reaching deeply oversold conditions.

The immediate downside focus is 4,282.23. A break there would extend the decline from 4,697.07 toward a stronger support area beginning with the 61.8% retracement of 3,942.43–4,697.07 at 4,230.70, followed by the 4,200 psychological level.

The relatively measured downside momentum leaves room for substantial support to emerge around 4,230.70–4,200. But a decisive break of 4,200 would materially weaken the structure and expose the 100% projection of 4,697.07–4,510.90 from 4,282.23, at 4,096.06.

On the upside, a recovery above roughly 4,431 would be the first sign immediate selling pressure is easing. Until then, rallies remain vulnerable.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Silver: Breaks 63.27 and Turns Toward the $60 Zone Silver’s technical deterioration is more advanced. The fall from 71.16 has broken through 63.27 support, supporting the case that the decline has resumed. Price is around 63.36, well below the 55-period 4H EMA near 66.07, with MACD falling sharply in negative territory and RSI down to 32.70.

The near-term bias remains on the downside while 65.49 support-turned-resistance holds. The next target is a strong technical confluence around 60.44–60.99. The upper end is the 61.8% retracement of the 54.78–71.16 advance at 60.99, while 60.44 represents the 100% projection of the 71.16–63.27 decline from 68.32.

A sustained breakout in the Gold/Silver ratio would reinforce the case for Silver reaching that zone. But the route lower could become increasingly volatile because Silver is already much closer to oversold territory than Gold.

Silver’s Downside Comes With Increasing Snapback Risk That creates an asymmetric setup. Silver can remain technically bearish while the probability of a sharp countertrend rebound rises as it approaches 60.44–60.99.

The distinction is important. An oversold reading wouldn’t invalidate the downside target, but it would make chasing the decline progressively more vulnerable to abrupt reversals. A fast momentum-driven drop toward $60 would therefore carry a higher snapback risk than a gradual decline accompanied by consolidation.

Friday’s US CPI is the most immediate macro test. Consensus sees headline inflation accelerating from 0.1% to 0.4% m/m, while core is expected to hold at 0.2%. A stronger core print would reinforce the current oil-yields-Fed chain and could push September hike expectations higher still. A softer print would challenge one important part of that mechanism by relieving some pressure on Treasury yields, even though it wouldn’t remove the Middle East oil shock.

The technical test runs in parallel. If the Gold/Silver ratio holds above its broken channel while Silver extends toward 60.44–60.99, the relative shift will look increasingly durable. If the ratio falls back into its former downtrend, the case for a deeper Silver underperformance would weaken.

For now, Gold and Silver are both losing to higher yields, but Silver is losing twice—once as a non-yielding precious metal and again through its industrial sensitivity.

Key Takeaways Brent hit a four-month high of $109.97 and WTI $104.32 as Houthi militants brought a second chokepoint, Bab el-Mandeb, into the oil-risk picture alongside Hormuz. September Fed hike odds jumped to 72.4% ahead of Friday’s CPI, up from 49.4% a week earlier, as the 10-year yield approached 5% and the 30-year neared a 19-year high. Silver is being hit through two channels at once: the same rate pressure affecting Gold, plus an industrial-demand sensitivity that Gold largely avoids. The Gold/Silver ratio has broken its multi-week downtrend, surging from 64.69 to 68.28; whether the 67.5-68.0 zone holds as support on a pullback will confirm if the shift is durable. Gold targets 4,282.23 and then 4,230.70-4,200; Silver has already broken 63.27 and targets 60.44-60.99, though its proximity to oversold levels raises the risk of a sharp snapback.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The short‑term Elliott Wave outlook in Silver (XAGUSD)f rom the July 17, 2026 low indicates that the cycle is unfolding as a five‑wave impulse. Within this sequence, wave ((1)) concluded at $71.23. The subsequent pullback in wave ((2)) is now in progress, serving to correct the earlier advance. Its internal subdivision takes the form of a zigzag structure, which is typical in corrective phases. From the termination of wave ((1)), wave (A) ended at $63.28. Thereafter, wave (B) developed as a zigzag of its own. In this subdivision, wave A finished at $67.47, wave B retraced to $64.71, and wave C advanced to $68.32, completing wave (B) at a higher degree.

Following this, the metal resumed its decline in wave (C). The ideal target for this leg is measured by the 100% to 161.8% Fibonacci extension of wave (A). This projection yields a zone between $55.5 and $60.3. Buyers are expected to emerge in this area, setting the stage for the next upward cycle. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $71.23 remains intact, rallies should fail in either three or seven swings, leading to further downside pressure.

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Key Highlights

USD/JPY started a major decline from 160.40 and fell by over 500 pips. A bearish continuation pattern could be forming with resistance at 154.80 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil prices surged further and even surpassed $100. Gold bulls struggled to push prices above the key hurdle at $4,480. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar failed to remain stable above 160.00 and tumbled against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY dipped below 158.00 and 156.20 to enter a bearish zone.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below the 155.00 level, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). It tested the 152.85 zone and started a consolidation phase.

On the upside, an immediate resistance could be near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 160.39 swing high to the 152.88 low at 154.65. There is also a bearish continuation pattern that could be formed with resistance at 154.80.

The next major resistance might be 155.25. A close above 155.25 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 156.60.

If there is another decline, the pair might find bids near 153.40. The first major support could be near 152.85. A downside break and close below 152.85 might start a major leg down. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 150.00.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil prices, the price gained bullish momentum, surpassed $100, and there are no signs of a major pullback yet.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

US Consumer Price Index for August 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.4%, versus +0.1% previous. US Consumer Price Index for August 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +3.4%, versus +3.4% previous. US Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy for August 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +2.4%, versus +2.5% previous. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for Sep 2026 (Prelim) – Forecast 51.0, versus 51.7 previous.

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PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7743 vs. 6.7766 previous

US Treasury yields have backed up sharply from their late-August lows, particularly at the front end of the curve, as higher energy prices, firmer inflation pressures and rising expectations for a Fed rate hike push borrowing costs higher.

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Yen strength keeps 110.00 in sight

Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView August Breakout Faces Its First Major Test A sharp bullish reversal signal triggered above the 50-day moving average on August 5, followed by additional signs of strength and a sharp 15% rally to a high of $4,697 in late-August. The rally measured from the closing price on the day before the breakout to the late-August high. The larger pattern unfolding since then is a pullback to test prior resistance as support, first at the 50-day moving average and then potentially at the lower swing high of $4,203 from early-July, which was previously key resistance. Signs of support and improving demand at these levels would further validate the bullish reversal signal from early August.

Converging Signals Could Set Up Next Move Gold is sitting in a narrowing range between support near the 50-day moving average and resistance at the 200-day moving average, now near $4,539. The current decline is the first test of the 50-day moving average as support since it was reclaimed in the August rally. Such a test is a normal and potentially healthy process for the developing uptrend, provided support holds. The narrowing distance between the two moving averages is constructive during consolidation, showing a contraction of the price range as potential demand builds.

This setup is particularly notable because the moving averages are converging along with a tight nine-day consolidation range at the intersection of two long-term trendlines, one rising and one falling, as well as the short-term uptrend line. A successful hold of support in this increasingly compressed structure would strengthen the case for the uptrend to resume.

ETF Gold holdings surged to record high in August

By

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Published: Sep 10, 2026, 19:40 GMT+00:00

$103.039

+8.43%

Gold lost the $4,396 to $4,422 area this morning and trades near $4,400, about $60 below Wednesday's close.

In this article:WTI Oil

+8.43%

Crude Oil ForecastSilver

-3.04%

Silver ForecastGold

-0.66%

Gold ForecastUS SPX 500

-0.98%

Every number on today’s calendar came in as expected. Producer prices rose 0.4 percent on the month, matching the consensus.

Table courtesy of investing.com Initial jobless claims were 206,000 against 205,000. Existing home sales were 3.98 million, on the forecast to the decimal. The ECB’s hike was fully priced. Nothing surprised anyone.

And yet: S&P 500 futures held below their rising support line and declined below the June high, WTI crude traded above $100, silver fell from above $67 overnight to below $65, copper lost almost 5 percent, and gold lost about $60 to trade near $4,400.

When markets sell off this hard on data that matched expectations, the data is not the reason. The reason is what the market was already leaning against, and today two things gave way at once: the stock market’s breakdown, and any remaining belief that oil was coming down.

Stocks: The Breakout Is Being Invalidated Yesterday, I wrote: “If stocks close today’s session below both the rising support line and the June high, things are likely to get volatile quickly.”

Yesterday, stocks closed below the support line, but above the June high (in terms of the closing prices).

This morning, S&P 500 futures broke below the latter as well.

On Tuesday I asked whether the August move above the prior highs was a breakout or a fakeout, and wrote that the day’s evidence “leans toward the second.” I’m now leaning toward this option even more.

If we get a daily close below the June high, we’ll have another bearish confirmation. This could lead to waterfall selling with massive spillover effects for other markets. Copper and silver seem to be already reacting to this move (as well as to higher crude oil price), but I’ll get back to this later today.

Stock market is the first item in the chain that ran this morning, and the one that explains the metals. A stock market invalidating its breakout while oil sits above $100 and the Fed is a week from hiking is a liquidation setup, and in a liquidation, silver and copper get sold as industrial assets, the miners get sold as equities, and gold gets sold as collateral.

That is the order of today’s damage: silver and copper worst, FCX worst among the stocks I follow, gold least. Nothing about it requires a data surprise. It requires only that the buyers who chased the August highs in stocks, copper, and the metals all discover on the same morning that the highs did not hold.

Silver Did What Silver Does Yesterday, I wrote: “Silver outperforming gold on a short-term basis, inside a consolidation, with gold itself unable to rise, is the sequence I described on September 3.” And: “it tends to mark short-term tops rather than bottoms.”

It marked one.

Silver price fell through $66 and then $65 this morning, taking out both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages in a single session, and is underperforming gold by a wide margin after outperforming it on Wednesday. That is the full signature in two days: silver leads on the way up, gold does not follow, silver leads on the way down.

The Right Shoulder Is Sagging Gold lost the $4,396 to $4,422 area this morning and trades near $4,400, about $60 below Wednesday’s close. The head-and-shoulders top I have been describing since Friday has its neckline near $4,320, and a daily close below it would complete the formation with its target below $4,000. Note: I was too conservative in the previous target based on this formation when I wrote that it points to $4,100. That was based on the neckline being horizontal and it’s actually declining.

Either way, the formation is not (yet) completed.

This Week’s Calls Five calls from the past ten days have now been tested, and the table below shows how each one resolved.

Where This Leaves Us My outlook and positions are unchanged, and the profit-take levels remain in place.

The market was given nothing to react to today, and it reacted anyway. That is the most bearish thing it has done all week.

Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA

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Being passionately curious about the market’s behavior, PR uses his statistical and financial background to question the common views and profit on the misconceptions.

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Editors’ Picks

The center of the FX market remains the USD/JPY carry trade and, so far, bulls have held on relatively well. To be sure the pair has pushed down by more than 1,000 pips in the past six weeks which may not sound like buyers are holding the bid, but given the backdrop and the fact that we haven't seen a larger case of unwind, I think credit should be given to the fact that buyers have, so far, responded to pullbacks quite well.

Gold remains at an important inflection point after the August rally gave way to a sharp correction late last month. Price has since stabilized at support near the yearly open, but the September range remains unresolved as traders await fresh direction.

Gold bulls blink as hot US PPI, $100 Oil send yields flying