As we see from our previous chart, USDJPY managed to pass above the short-term resistance zone of 161.95 which shows a strong advance still ongoing.
Prices fell toward 160.50-70 on the suspected intervention before bouncing back toward target 163.80
Market managed to print above 163.80 which may lead for farther advance later
Traders should take precautionary measures as the Bank Of Japan could intervene any time in the market.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 162.10-40 163.80 LEVEL2 160.50-70 165.50 LEVEL3 158.00-50 167.00 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
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Gold (XAU/USD) has been consolidating gains during the European trading session, following a bullish gap at the week’s opening as a moderate improvement of risk sentiment hurt the safe-haven USD. A pause in the US-Iran hostilities has boosted hopes of a second round of peace talks, sending Oil prices about $10 lower from last week’s peak and pushing US Treasury yields lower.
Precious metals’ rallies, however, remain subdued so far with investors looking from the sidelines, ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy meeting, due on Wednesday. Later today, the release of US Durable Goods Orders and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index will provide further insight into the momentum of US industrial activity, to frame Wednesday’s decision.
Futures markets are pricing a 33% chance of a Fed rate hike on Wednesday. The most likely scenario, thus, is that of a steady monetary policy, but strong growth data and above-target inflation might prompt the Fed’s Chairman to convey a hawkish message. In this context, the risk is skewed to the downside for gold.
Technical Analysis: Gold is forming a descending triangle
XAU/USD trades at $4,101. The metal holds a constructive immediate bias, yet with price action contained within an ever-narrowing range since late June. Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts are in neutral-to-positive territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) wavering around the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just above zero, hinting at a consolidation rather than an impulsive bullish reversal.
Bulls would need a clear break of the area between the descending trend-line now around $4,160 and the June 22 high around the $4,200 area to confirm a trend shift and bring mid-June highs, at the $4,380 area, into focus.
It's worth mentioning, however, that triangles are often continuation patterns and that, in that sense, a bearish outcome is favoured. Supports are at the triangle's bottom, in the $3,940-$3,960 area, and the late October 2025 low, near $3,885. The Triangle's measured target is at the $3,700 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Euro (EUR) gives back a majority of its early gains against the US Dollar (USD) after failing to rise above the intraday high of 1.1418 on Monday. During European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades almost 0.2% higher to near 1.1395.
The major currency pair surrenders early gains as the US Dollar (USD) bounces back after a weak start of the week. The US Dollar started lower as the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran over the weekend diminished the appeal of safe-haven assets.
This week, major triggers for the pair will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, and the release of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July on Friday.
Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% again and deliver no monetary policy guidance, while warning of upside inflation risks.
On the Eurozone front, the inflation data will influence the European Central Bank‘s (ECB) interest rate expectations, as officials have expressed concerns regarding prolonged elevated inflationary pressures.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1392, but is keeping a mildly bearish near-term tone as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at around 1.1419 continues to act as a key barrier. The pair has also faced rejection near the breakdown region of the 20-day EMA, which is around 1.1420.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 43 suggests subdued bearish momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the former channel floor turned barrier near 1.1420, with the upper channel boundary around 1.1550 acting as the next key cap if buyers regain traction. On the downside, immediate support is the prior trend-line reaction levels around 1.1381, with a deeper slide exposing structural support near 1.1312.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate fell to its weakest level since late June last week as stronger Australian economic data reinforced expectations for further Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hikes.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading around AU$1.9073, down approximately 1% over the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.90626 (-0.10%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335557 (+0.23%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) proved remarkably resilient last week, with the risk-sensitive currency defying the broader deterioration in market sentiment linked to renewed conflict in the Middle East.
While risk appetite weakened during the second half of the week as geopolitical tensions intensified and oil prices climbed, the ‘Aussie’ avoided a sharper sell-off thanks to stronger domestic economic data.
AUD investors were particularly encouraged by Australia's latest employment report, which showed the economy created more than 76,000 jobs in June.
Together with stronger-than-expected July PMI readings, the figures reinforced expectations for further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate hikes and helped the Australian Dollar end the week firmly higher.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) struggled to attract sustained support as rising UK government borrowing costs unsettled investors.
Although higher global energy prices contributed to the rise in gilt yields, markets also focused on Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first wave of cost-of-living measures.
The removal of VAT on domestic electricity bills and tax relief for hospitality businesses raised fresh questions over how the government intends to finance the measures while remaining within Labour's fiscal rules.
A busy week of UK economic data provided only mixed support for Sterling. Strong employment and retail sales figures were offset by softer inflation, which kept expectations for further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes in check.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Cautious BoE to Sap Sterling Sentiment? Looking ahead, the Bank of England's latest interest rate decision is expected to be the main driver of the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate this week.
Markets widely expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged, placing the emphasis on the Bank's forward guidance.
Sterling could come under renewed pressure if the BoE continues to emphasise downside risks to growth and maintains a cautious policy outlook.
However, if policymakers acknowledge that rising energy prices have increased inflation risks and leave the door open to further tightening, the Pound may stage a recovery.
For the Australian Dollar, attention will focus on Australia's quarterly inflation report. A stronger-than-expected rise in consumer prices would reinforce expectations for further RBA interest rate hikes and could provide additional support for the ‘Aussie’.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate fell to a six-week low last week before recovering as UK political developments, high-impact economic data and the escalating US-Iran conflict drove volatility.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading at NZ$2.3020, virtually unchanged over the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.299017 (-0.09%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.962339 (-0.07%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.580926 (+0.32%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) wobbled at the start of the week as markets were caught off guard by Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s surprise choice for Chancellor. Burnham appointed former Defence Secretary John Healey as head of the Treasury.
Sterling then began to trend lower amid concerns about the government’s commitment to fiscal discipline as Burnham started to outline plans to cut some taxes.
Political developments overshadowed several high-impact UK economic releases, including the latest labour market report and consumer price index.
The CPI figures were mixed and failed to prompt decisive movement in the Pound. Headline inflation cooled more than forecast, easing from 2.8% to 2.6%, while core inflation unexpectedly held at 2.6% rather than slowing to 2.5%.
While GBP was able to recover against riskier currencies as the market mood soured, it struggled elsewhere.
Strong data on Friday also failed to boost Sterling, with UK retail sales in June and the services PMI for July both unexpectedly accelerating.
Meanwhile, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) strengthened at the start of the week, shrugging off weaker-than-forecast trade figures and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The ‘Kiwi’ then extended its gains as New Zealand inflation exceeded expectations, accelerating from 3.1% to 4.1% in the second quarter. This fuelled bets on further interest rate increases from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
After striking a six-week high against the Pound on Tuesday, the New Zealand Dollar retreated through the remainder of the week.
With the crisis in the Middle East intensifying, a deeply risk-averse market mood weighed heavily on NZD and allowed GBP/NZD to recover.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: BoE Interest Rate Decision in Focus Looking ahead, the Bank of England’s interest rate decision on Thursday is in the spotlight for GBP investors this week.
The Bank is expected to hold interest rates steady, which would leave markets focused on the BoE’s forward guidance.
If policymakers indicate that rate hikes remain likely in the coming months, particularly following the recent rise in energy prices, Sterling could strengthen.
Ahead of the decision, political developments could continue to drive volatility in the Pound.
As for the New Zealand Dollar, the latest business and consumer confidence indexes could influence NZD, with the releases due overnight on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
If morale among businesses and consumers deteriorated in July, the ‘Kiwi’ could weaken.
HSBC strategists see EUR/USD at risk of moving lower as the European Central Bank (ECB) maintains a cautious, data-dependent stance and refrains from signalling further rate hikes. They note that Euro (EUR) support from higher yields is fragile, while weak eurozone growth, rising energy costs and deteriorating terms of trade could increasingly weigh on the Euro against the US Dollar (USD).
Euro support seen as increasingly fragile"On 23 July, the European Central Bank (ECB) held rates at 2.25% and reiterated a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting stance."
"This message underwhelms and weakens support for EUR/USD."
"EUR/USD has been remarkably stable over the last month propped up by higher yields as markets mark up inflation and tightening expectations in response to rising energy prices."
"But that’s a fragile kind of support and only lasts as long as the ECB is perceived as prepared to deliver."
"Without a firmer commitment to support interest rates, we think EUR/USD is likely weaken as investors refocus on growth downside and terms-of-trade risks."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) opens the week with a bullish gap on Monday as a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improves risk sentiment and sends Oil prices sharply lower. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,102, up 1.24% on the day.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said President Donald Trump is giving negotiations some space while keeping all military options on the table. Tehran also said it would refrain from fresh attacks as long as Washington did the same.
Still, buyers appear reluctant to chase Gold higher as the geopolitical situation remains fluid. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the situation in the Strait of Hormuz had not changed and that the strategic waterway remained closed.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $82.50 per barrel, down more than 7% on the day. Gold’s reaction again shows how the metal has decoupled from its traditional safe-haven role since the US-Iran war began.
Positive developments lift Gold by pushing Oil prices lower, easing inflation concerns and reducing hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets. In contrast, renewed fighting tends to drive energy prices and interest-rate expectations higher, weighing on the precious metal.
The Fed’s interest-rate decision on Wednesday is the key risk event this week, alongside the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data on Thursday.
The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged, but traders still price in a 33% chance of a hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of a rate increase in September stands near 79%.
The possibility of higher US interest rates remains a major headwind for the non-yielding metal, while the US Dollar continues to benefit from hawkish Fed expectations and the evolving geopolitical situation.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.28, recovering from an intraday low of 101.12.
Strategists at OCBC note that “a hold accompanied by hawkish guidance would likely push expected rate hikes further out the curve without materially altering the roughly 55bp of cumulative tightening priced in through mid-2027.” In their view, “in this scenario, the USD should remain supported.”
By contrast, OCBC cautions that “a decision to leave rates unchanged with little explanation could be interpreted as dovish and create confusion about the Fed's reaction function,” a misstep that “risks lifting long-end inflation breakevens, a development that would be negative for the USD.”
Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidates near 21-day SMA
From a technical perspective, XAU/USD remains range-bound between $4,000 and $4,200, with prices fluctuating around the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,070. The near-term outlook is neutral, although the broader bias stays bearish as the metal trades below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs at $4,222 and $4,470, respectively.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is at 49, leaning neutral, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory, suggesting that downside momentum is limited even as the broader structure remains capped by overhead averages.
On the upside, the $4,200 psychological mark and the 50-day SMA at $4,222 form the initial resistance zone. A decisive break above this area could open the door toward the 100-day SMA at $4,470.
Initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,070, followed by the $4,000 level. A daily close below this level would expose deeper retracement, while holding above it would keep XAU/USD in a range, with bulls needing a clear move through $4,222 to regain control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The USD/INR pair fell nearly 0.7% after failing to breach 97.00, driven by active RBI intervention and declining crude oil prices The pair’s rejection near higher levels echoes mid-May failures around 97.00, highlighting persistent resistance without stronger supporting catalysts Rising oil prices and US inflation present key risks, while delayed exporter dollar conversions offer opportunities for further rupee appreciation The USD/INR currency pair experienced a notable reversal on Monday, declining by nearly 0.7% after a period of steady gains since late June. The Indian rupee strengthened, with early trading showing gains of approximately 28 paise, reaching levels near 96.25 against the US dollar, before settling in the mid-95.80s.
This movement mirrors previous attempts to push towards the 97.00 psychological level, including a peak in mid-May. Such instances where a clear trend encounters significant resistance often lead market participants to consider whether the change is temporary or signals a broader shift.
What Drove the Latest Decline? The main source of pressure was a sharp drop in crude oil prices. Brent futures fell over 4% to about $92.74 per barrel, which eased pressure on India’s large oil import bill. Adding to this, positive signals from West Asia emerged, where the United States and Iran indicated a halt to strikes and opened the door for diplomatic talks.
US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said negotiations were progressing on multiple fronts. This helped reduce the geopolitical risk premium that had pushed oil prices higher and boosted dollar demand.
A softer US dollar index, which came down from its highs, also helped. Strong buying in domestic equity markets encouraged capital flows, which in turn benefited the rupee.
A Familiar Ceiling Near 97.00 Today’s pullback feels like history repeating. Back in mid-May, USD/INR pushed toward the 97.00 mark but just couldn’t hold. The pair swung through one of its widest ranges in modern history in the first half of 2026, hitting an all-time record high of 96.84 on May 20. It then recovered partly to around 94.35 by late H1. That recovery was helped by RBI intervention, falling crude prices, and a coordinated package of capital-account reforms.
Now, the pattern feels almost repetitive. The pair climbed back toward similar territory over the past week. Wise’s exchange rate data shows it hit a high of 96.888 on July 23, 2026, before rolling over again. Today’s dip to a low of 96.166 on July 27, 2026, suggests the 97.00 zone remains a meaningful resistance level. The pair has now failed to clear it twice.
Risks and Opportunities for Investors For investors and traders monitoring the USD/INR pair, the current situation presents a balanced outlook. Repeated rejections near the 97.00 level indicate a technical ceiling, likely reinforced by consistent dollar selling, potentially including actions by the RBI.
Opportunities may arise for those anticipating a reduction in market volatility. A sustained decrease in oil prices would positively impact India’s macroeconomic balance by reducing the import bill and inflationary pressures.
However, underlying factors that could drive the pair higher remain. Elevated crude oil prices linked to tensions in West Asia and ongoing foreign portfolio outflows are persistent risks that could push USD/INR back towards its recent highs.
Why did USD/INR decline sharply today?
Falling crude oil prices and signals of easing US-Iran tensions reduced dollar demand and supported the rupee in Monday’s session.
How does this compare to earlier moves towards 97.00?
Similar to mid-May, advances near 97.00 failed to sustain, reflecting market caution at higher levels without stronger catalyst.
What should investors watch for in USD/INR going forward?
Going forward, investors should monitor crude oil price movements, the trend of foreign institutional investor outflows, and whether the 97.00 level holds as resistance or experiences a decisive break.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) pares recent losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, favoured by a relief rally, as the US and Iran halted their hostilities, opening the door for further negotiations. The USD/JPY pair has pulled back from fresh 40-year highs right below 164.00, but it remains contained at the 163.50 area, keeping the broader bullish trend intact.
The recent JPY recovery has more to do with short-covering of long US Dollar positions, amid fresh hopes of a peace process in the Middle East than with intrinsic Yen strength. Apart from that, investors are likely to remain wary of placing large directional positions in the pair, awaiting interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan later this week.
Analysts at MUFG observe that the “drop in energy prices at the start of this week has brought some much-needed relief for Japanese policymakers and helped to slow upward momentum for USD/JPY.” However, they caution that this respite may be temporary, warning that “without hawkish guidance (by the Bank of Japan), the yen is vulnerable to further weakness, especially if the Fed delivers a hawkish policy surprise this week.”
Technical Analysis: Key support lies at the 162.80 area
The USD/JPY pair trades at 163.67 at the time of writing, holding a constructive bullish stance, with dips contained well above a rising trend-line from early-July lows. Intra-day charts are hinting at a softer bullish impetus, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) trending back toward neutral territory, near 59, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line crossing below the Signal line, which is a bearish sign.
Bears, however, remain contained above previous highs, in the mid-ranges of the 163.00s, with key support at the confluence of the mentioned trendline and July 6 and 8 highs in the 162.70-162.90 area. A confirmation below these levels puts sellers in control and adds pressure towards the July 17 and 20 lows at the 162.15 area.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier around last week's highs, near 165. Further up, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July 17-23 target, at the 163.50 area, emerges as a potential target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.25%-0.07%-0.18%0.07%-0.31%-0.16%-0.41%EUR0.25%0.15%0.06%0.31%-0.08%0.11%-0.17%GBP0.07%-0.15%-0.09%0.17%-0.23%-0.07%-0.32%JPY0.18%-0.06%0.09%0.21%-0.14%0.00%-0.22%CAD-0.07%-0.31%-0.17%-0.21%-0.36%-0.21%-0.46%AUD0.31%0.08%0.23%0.14%0.36%0.19%-0.10%NZD0.16%-0.11%0.07%-0.01%0.21%-0.19%-0.30%CHF0.41%0.17%0.32%0.22%0.46%0.10%0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $59.43 per troy ounce, up 2.26% from the $58.12 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 16.39% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 68.93 on Monday, down from 69.73 on Friday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold was among the gainers at the start of the week, as the metal started trading on Monday with gap higher and advanced around 1.5% in Asian trading.
Softer rhetoric in geopolitical front, after US and Iran paused hostilities, opening way for potential diplomatic action, eased inflation concerns and deflated expectations for Fed rate hikes in coming months.
The action weakened the US dollar and provided fresh boost to gold price which probed again through $4100 barrier after the recent weakness found footstep above key $4000 support zone.
The price moved to the upper side of near-term $3950/$4200 range that boosts optimism, however, daily technical structure is improving but still fragile (the price needs to sustain gains above 20DMA ($4072 to keep slight bullish bias, underpinned north-heading 14-d momentum on track to break into positive territory).
In such scenario, $4200 upper breakpoint will remain exposed, with firm break here to generate initial reversal signal and formation of base.
Fundamentals need to remain in current mode (or improve further) to continue underpinning near-term action.
Initial support lays at $4072 (20DMA) followed by $4052 (10DMA) loss of which would hurt fresh bulls and risk retest of range floor.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Gold was among the gainers at the start of the week, as the metal started trading on Monday with gap higher and advanced around 1.5% in Asian trading.
Softer rhetoric in geopolitical front, after US and Iran paused hostilities, opening way for potential diplomatic action, eased inflation concerns and deflated expectations for Fed rate hikes in coming months.
The action weakened the US dollar and provided fresh boost to gold price which probed again through $4100 barrier after the recent weakness found footstep above key $4000 support zone.
The price moved to the upper side of near-term $3950/$4200 range that boosts optimism, however, daily technical structure is improving but still fragile (the price needs to sustain gains above 20DMA ($4072 to keep slight bullish bias, underpinned north-heading 14-d momentum on track to break into positive territory).
In such scenario, $4200 upper breakpoint will remain exposed, with firm break here to generate initial reversal signal and formation of base.
Fundamentals need to remain in current mode (or improve further) to continue underpinning near-term action.
Initial support lays at $4072 (20DMA) followed by $4052 (10DMA) loss of which would hurt fresh bulls and risk retest of range floor.
Silver (XAG/USD) rallies on Monday and trades around $59.45 at the time of writing, up 2.27% on the day. The white metal benefits from a sharp decline in Oil prices following renewed hopes for de-escalation between the United States (US) and Iran, a backdrop that strengthens expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from major central banks.
Military tensions between the two countries have paused after US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said US President Donald Trump had decided to suspend military strikes to allow more time for diplomacy. According to Reuters, an Iranian official also stated that Tehran would halt its attacks as long as Washington does the same.
This development is weighing heavily on Oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling by nearly 8% at the time of press. Lower energy prices help ease concerns over persistently high inflation, reducing the likelihood of additional monetary tightening and supporting non-yielding assets such as Silver.
At the same time, lower US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar (USD) are providing additional support to the precious metal. Investors have scaled back expectations for further interest rate hikes as inflation risks linked to energy prices continue to fade.
Market attention now turns to the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, but investors will closely scrutinize the policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for further clues about the future path of monetary policy.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Geoff Yu at BNY argues that the Bank of England (BoE) is likely to keep policy unchanged despite energy-driven price pressures, as markets have already tightened financial conditions. He sees the United Kingdom's (UK) constrained fiscal space and potential tax-threshold relief as key for demand and gilt supply, judging current BoE tightening priced by markets as excessive but still supportive for British Pound (GBP) resilience.
BoE caution meets tight fiscal space"The BoE is not expected to shift its policy stance this week despite renewed price pressures from energy. To paraphrase Governor Andrew Bailey’s views on transmission mechanisms, the market is already doing the tightening for them. Mortgage rates have already rebounded significantly due to the recent rise in swap rates, and even if tensions de-escalate, the reversal process is asymmetric and unlikely to be swift."
"In our view, the fiscal outlook will make a bigger difference to policy expectations. The new government has already launched several initiatives that reflect fiscal relief, with a major package due in early Q4. Reports point to raising tax thresholds as the main goal, helping offset the effects of fiscal drag in recent years."
"We believe current BoE pricing of around 42bp in tightening by year end looks excessive, but upside growth surprises can help with GBP resilience."
"The BoE is expected to hold rates at 3.75%, with at most two dissents. Although headline inflation risk has picked up, the Monetary Policy Committee is even more minded to focus on softer inflation. Governor Andrew Bailey continues to stress that wage growth is also slowing."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell to a two-week low last week as surging energy prices and escalating tensions in the Middle East boosted demand for the safe-haven US Dollar while Sterling came under pressure.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3317, down approximately 1% over the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335557 (+0.23%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.139973 (+0.25%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.59142 (-0.16%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) strengthened against most major currencies last week as tensions in the Middle East continued to escalate.
Demand for the safe-haven currency was initially restrained as global risk appetite remained surprisingly resilient through the first half of the week.
However, the US Dollar gathered momentum later in the session as investors sought defensive assets after global oil prices climbed above US$100 a barrel following Yemen’s Houthi rebels expanding the conflict from the Gulf into the Red Sea.
Toward the end of the week, US President Donald Trump also unsettled markets after announcing new "forced labour" tariffs on more than 80 countries, adding another layer of uncertainty for investors.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) came under sustained pressure as rising UK government borrowing costs unsettled financial markets.
Although soaring global energy prices contributed to higher gilt yields, investors also focused on Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first wave of cost-of-living measures.
The government's tax relief plans prompted fresh questions over how the proposals would be funded while remaining within Labour's fiscal rules.
A busy run of UK economic data failed to change the broader narrative. Strong employment figures and better-than-expected retail sales offered some support, but softer inflation weakened expectations for another Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike in the near term.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed and BoE Rate Decisions in the Spotlight Looking ahead, attention will centre on this week's interest rate decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates unchanged, but investors will closely examine policymakers' guidance for any indication that another interest rate hike could still be delivered before the end of the summer.
The latest US GDP figures later in the week may also influence the US Dollar if second-quarter growth accelerates as expected.
Meanwhile, markets also expect the Bank of England to keep interest rates on hold, leaving the focus on its guidance and whether policymakers emphasise the growing economic challenges facing the UK while maintaining a cautious tone.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
GBP/CAD could recover towards 1.8900 this week, although the Bank of England decision, UK fiscal concerns and volatile oil prices will determine whether the rebound can hold. The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) opened the new week near CA$1.8820, having recovered from last week’s three-week low around CA$1.8740.
GBP/CAD nevertheless ended the previous week approximately 0.4% lower, as UK fiscal concerns weighed on Pound Sterling while rising oil prices supported the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.8819 (+0.20%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.608296 (+0.35%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.4096 (+0.01%)
Image: GBP/CAD Technical Outlook Ahead of the Bank of England Decision Near-term momentum has improved after GBP/CAD moved back above the 1.8800 area.
The 15-minute chart shows the pair holding above its short-term moving average and session VWAP, while the relative strength index remains positive without signalling an extreme overbought position.
Initial resistance is located around 1.8830. A sustained break above this level could open the way towards 1.8870 and then the psychologically important 1.8900 area.
On the downside, 1.8800 is the first support to watch. A break beneath 1.8780 would weaken the recovery and expose last week’s low near 1.8740.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Bank of England Holds the Key Thursday’s Bank of England decision will provide the week’s main test for Sterling.
The Bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, meaning the vote split, updated forecasts and guidance on future tightening will be more important than the decision itself.
At the previous meeting, two Monetary Policy Committee members voted for an immediate increase to 4.00%.
Further concern about the inflationary impact of elevated energy prices could therefore reinforce expectations that the Bank may raise rates later this year.
A relatively hawkish decision, particularly one that keeps a September increase under consideration, would support a GBP/CAD move through 1.8830 and towards 1.8900.
However, Pound Sterling could retreat if the Bank emphasises weaker growth, softer headline inflation or the risk that higher energy costs will damage demand rather than create persistent domestic inflation.
UK political and fiscal developments will remain an additional risk.
The Pound struggled last week after Prime Minister Andy Burnham appointed John Healey as Chancellor and investors questioned how the government’s proposed tax reductions would be funded.
This political uncertainty overshadowed stronger-than-expected UK retail sales and business activity figures, preventing Sterling from making a sustained recovery.
Oil Prices and Canadian GDP Could Support the Loonie For the Canadian Dollar, oil prices are likely to remain at least as important as domestic data.
Crude prices surged last week following attacks on Saudi tankers and infrastructure around the Red Sea, but fell sharply on Monday as a pause in US-Iran attacks encouraged hopes of renewed diplomacy.
Shipping disruption through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait means the risk premium has not disappeared, leaving CAD sensitive to further geopolitical headlines.
A renewed rise in Brent crude would probably favour the Canadian Dollar and could push GBP/CAD back towards 1.8780.
Conversely, a continued oil-price correction would remove an important source of CAD support.
Friday’s Canadian GDP report will provide the main domestic event.
Statistics Canada will publish May’s GDP figures alongside an advance estimate for June, following April’s 0.5% expansion.
Stronger growth would reinforce the downside risk for GBP/CAD.
Nevertheless, the central forecast is for the pair to remain supported above 1.8780, with a hawkish Bank of England outcome potentially driving a recovery towards 1.8870–1.8900.
EUR/USD enters the final week of July at 1.1369. Friday’s modest decline in energy prices reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates as early as its upcoming meeting, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.
At the same time, the main currency pair remains very close to the monthly low recorded in late June. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike before the end of the year.
Inflation risks have risen following a renewed escalation in the US–Iran conflict. Restrictions on the movement of energy tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have pushed oil and fuel prices higher.
Additional support for the dollar is coming from strong US economic data. S&P PMIs showed the fastest pace of private business activity growth this year. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims fell at the fastest pace in nearly six decades, confirming the resilience of the labour market.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1389 level, currently extending between 1.1336 and 1.1413. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1420, followed by a decline to 1.1313. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1313. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1414 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower to 1.1390 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1420, and then a decline to 1.1370, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1313. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion EUR/USD remains under pressure as it approaches the final week of July, hovering near monthly lows. The modest retreat in energy prices at the end of last week briefly reduced expectations of an immediate Fed rate hike, but markets continue to price in at least one increase before the end of the year. Renewed US–Iran tensions and supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation risks. Strong US economic data – including robust PMI readings and a sharp decline in jobless claims – continue to support the dollar. Technically, the pair may see a temporary corrective move towards 1.1420, but the broader bearish structure remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1313. The Federal Reserve meeting this week will be the key catalyst.
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US Dollar News: Fed and ECB Outlook Shape FX Markets The U.S. dollar, euro and British pound enter a pivotal week as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve’s July 29 to 30 meeting and the ECB’s decision last week while new data comes through. Most analysts expect that the Fed will leave rates where they are, although the market will be watching out for clues from Chair Jerome Powell given that the latest US data has confirmed the strength of the economy.
June retail sales were up by 0.2% on the month, while the control group increased by 0.4%, and initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 208,000, a three-month low, underlining the strength of the consumer and the labour market. This week brings out the second-quarter GDP, the PCE inflation print for June and July non-farm payrolls which could alter thinking around the second half of the year.
The ECB decided to keep its deposit rate at 2.25% as it sees inflation edging toward its 2% target while remaining data-dependent. ECB President Christine Lagarde said growth remains weak, with members continuing to assess the impact of the economic effect of trade and higher energy costs on the economic environment.
Sterling remains supported by expectations that the Bank of England will proceed cautiously after it kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, and it sees the UK policymakers juggle between curbing inflation and a steady wage-growth and a cooling labour market. UK mortgage approvals, consumer credit and business surveys are released this week as they provide evidence for the economy ahead of the next Bank of England meeting.
Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Uptrend Holds Above Key Support Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index is maintaining a healthy uptrend after bouncing off support in the 100.50 zone along the uptrend line. Currently, the index trades at 101.28, keeping the 50-day EMA (101.12) and 100-day EMA (101.01) beneath the index level. The RSI is sitting at 53.
Resistance sits at 101.65, with further levels at 102.06 and 102.42. Support is found initially at 101.06, then at 100.50 and 99.92.
The index is trading above the 101.06 support line; if the index stays above this, bulls are in control. If the index moves above 101.65, it strengthens the bullish view and raises the prospect of a move to 102.06. If the index dips below the 100.50 support, it reduces bullish momentum and opens the prospect of a move to 99.92.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Recovery Faces Strong Resistance Zone GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is showing signs of stabilisation after moving down for quite some time. The pair is currently trading at $1.3333. It is attempting to stabilise just below a major resistance area. The 50-day EMA (1.3378) and 100-day EMA (1.3377) are both above it.
Support is initially found at 1.3305, then at 1.3218. Resistance is initially found at 1.3356, then at 1.3400 and 1.3430.
The index has not been able to recover the $1.3356 level; it remains under the overall pressure of sellers. If the index moves down through 1.3305, it could extend the losses towards 1.3218. However, if the pair closes above 1.3356, the downtrend weakens and the prospects for a rise to 1.3400 increase.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bears Defend Key Triangle Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD remains bearish after testing the top boundary of the triangle and the two moving average lines without being able to move past them. At present, the index is trading at 1.1395; the 50-day EMA (1.1408) and 100-day EMA (1.1420) are above it and the RSI is at 48.
Support is found initially at 1.1364, then at 1.1325. Resistance is initially found at 1.1410, then at 1.1443 and 1.1481.
The short-term bias remains bearish while EUR/USD trades below 1.1410. A fall below the 1.1364 level opens the prospect of a move to 1.1325. A move above the 1.1410 resistance line improves the outlook and increases the possibility of a move to 1.1443.
ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that EUR/USD has rebounded above 1.140 on lower Oil prices but argues the move looks optimistic without a clear de-escalation in geopolitical tensions. Pesole stresses that elevated European gas prices are hurting the Euro’s terms of trade, while upcoming Eurozone data are unlikely to deliver enough domestic support to offset Dollar-safe-haven and Fed-related pressures.
Gas prices and geopolitics weigh on euro"EUR/USD has bounced back above 1.140 as oil prices dropped sharply today. Still, that move looks somewhat optimistic given the absence of a clear de-escalation path. Any renewed military strikes could quickly send Brent back to $100/bbl and EUR/USD below 1.1380."
"Gas prices are another reason we remain cautious on EUR/USD unless tensions ease quickly. Even after today's decline, TTF is trading at €58/MWh, more than 30% above levels at the start of July and close to the March highs."
"So while Brent is nowhere near its peaks, gas is. Given its importance in eurozone energy imports, the euro's terms of trade – statistically the most important medium-term driver of EUR valuation – are also hovering near March lows and at levels comparable to 2023."
"Potential precautionary USD buying ahead of the FOMC may also weigh on the pair into Wednesday."
"On Friday, eurozone CPI is expected to rise above 3.0%, but with core inflation still near 2.5%, we do not think that will trigger aggressive hawkish repricing. Markets price 42bp from the European Central Bank by year-end, but that outlook should remain highly sensitive to ongoing oil volatility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD enters the final week of July at 1.1369. Friday's modest decline in energy prices reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates as early as its upcoming meeting, scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday.
At the same time, the main currency pair remains very close to the monthly low recorded in late June. Markets continue to price in at least one Fed rate hike before the end of the year.
Inflation risks have risen following a renewed escalation in the US–Iran conflict. Restrictions on the movement of energy tankers in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have pushed oil and fuel prices higher.
Additional support for the dollar is coming from strong US economic data. S&P PMIs showed the fastest pace of private business activity growth this year. Meanwhile, the number of initial jobless claims fell at the fastest pace in nearly six decades, confirming the resilience of the labour market.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1389 level, currently extending between 1.1336 and 1.1413. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1420, followed by a decline to 1.1313. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1313. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1414 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower to 1.1390 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1420, and then a decline to 1.1370, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1313. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionEUR/USD remains under pressure as it approaches the final week of July, hovering near monthly lows. The modest retreat in energy prices at the end of last week briefly reduced expectations of an immediate Fed rate hike, but markets continue to price in at least one increase before the end of the year. Renewed US–Iran tensions and supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea have pushed oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation risks. Strong US economic data – including robust PMI readings and a sharp decline in jobless claims – continue to support the dollar. Technically, the pair may see a temporary corrective move towards 1.1420, but the broader bearish structure remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1313. The Federal Reserve meeting this week will be the key catalyst.
The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.15% to near 1.3345 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar faces selling pressure due to renewed hopes of a United States (US)-Iran diplomatic solution, following the pause in military aggression in the Middle East.
Over the weekend, the US military confirmed that further attacks on Iran would be unnecessary as the target list has been exhausted.
In the European trade, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 101.20.
Meanwhile, US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Mike Waltz also said in an interview with Fox News that President Donald Trump wants to give negotiations a “little bit of room”, while forces remained locked and loaded, The Guardian reported.
This week, investors will pay close attention to monetary policy announcements by both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Both central banks are expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades higher at around 1.3344, but is still close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 1.3370, indicating a neutral near-term outlook. The formation of a Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) also suggests that the overall trend is neutral.
The Relative Strength Index (14) near 47.00 reflects lackluster momentum rather than a decisive directional push.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the descending trend-line zone referenced near 1.3467, followed by the July 15 high at 1.3558. On the downside, last week's low at 1.3300 is the key support level, with June's low at 1.3140 remaining a major cushion. A breakdown below 1.3140 would expose the pair to the psychological level at 1.3000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator BoE Interest Rate Decision The Bank of England (BoE) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the BoE is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP). Likewise, if the BoE adopts a dovish view on the UK economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for GBP.
Gold – Chart Gold has rebounded strongly from the rising trendline and reclaimed both the 50-EMA ($4,072) and 100-EMA ($4,066), signalling improving short-term momentum. The current Gold price sits at $4,103. The RSI is well above 60 levels, showing the momentum is positive but not yet overbought.
The trendline resistance for the entire move has been a challenge for the bulls for several times this month. The initial resistance zone starts at $4,139 and follows up at $4,200, then $4,246 levels. On the downside, the first support level is at $4,067, followed at $3,998.
The break above $4,139 zone will keep up the bullish breakout and target up at $4,200 levels. However, the failure below the descending trend line can push the prices back towards the $4,067-$3,998 support zone, before buyers try to bounce again.
TL;DR:Will the Fed and BoJ jointly surprise markets this week? USD/JPY, already at a 40-year high above 163, faces amplified two-way risk from their combined policy signals.
Why This Week Matters More Than a Typical Central Bank Cycle Three major central bank decisions are packed into little more than 60 hours: the Federal Reserve announces policy Wednesday, the Bank of England follows Thursday, and the Bank of Japan concludes its meeting Friday. Markets are unlikely to distribute their attention evenly across all three. The Fed and BoJ have the greatest potential to reshape rate expectations, and the interaction between the two could make USD/JPY the week’s most sensitive pair.
With the pair already trading at a 40-year high, even modest surprises from either central bank could trigger an outsized reaction. That asymmetry — high positioning risk meeting high event risk — is what separates this week from routine policy meetings.
The Fed: A Unanimous Hold, But a Contested Path Ahead The Fed is universally expected to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75% on Wednesday. Reuters’ July 21 survey showed all 104 economists expecting no policy change, while futures markets assign only around a one-third probability of an immediate hike.
Yet that headline consensus masks a more important debate over the path ahead. Futures continue to price:
Roughly a 75% probability of a September hike Better than even odds of two increases before year-end That pricing is considerably more aggressive than economists’ consensus for rates to hold steady through December — a disconnect that leaves Treasury yields particularly sensitive to any signal that policymakers are growing less comfortable waiting.
What to Watch: The Voting Breakdown and Warsh’s Tone The meeting’s most important signal may not be the rate decision itself but the voting breakdown. Minutes from the previous FOMC meeting revealed several policymakers were already prepared to support an immediate rate increase before ultimately agreeing to wait for more evidence. Any rise in dissenting votes favoring tightening would give investors a concrete measure of how quickly sentiment inside the Committee is shifting.
Markets will also need to adjust to Chair Kevin Warsh’s communication style. Unlike predecessor Jerome Powell, Warsh has consistently rejected detailed forward guidance. Investors are likely to focus instead on how he characterizes labor market resilience, whether he places greater weight on inflation risk from higher oil prices, and whether he pushes back on the market’s aggressive tightening expectations.
The BoJ: A Quiet Hold With a Loud Subtext Attention then shifts to Tokyo, where the BoJ is also widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1.00%. The real focus is the quarterly Outlook Report and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s assessment of whether inflation and growth data justify a faster normalization cycle.
Reuters’ latest survey found an overwhelming majority expecting no move this week but anticipating another hike before year-end, with October and December emerging as the most likely windows. Bloomberg has separately reported that some BoJ officials are becoming more receptive to accelerating the pace of tightening if persistent yen weakness keeps feeding domestic inflation.
Even without immediate action Friday, upward revisions to inflation forecasts or stronger confidence in the outlook would reinforce expectations the Bank could move sooner than markets currently anticipate.
Why USD/JPY Carries Unusually High Event Risk That combination gives USD/JPY unusually high event risk from both directions:
On the US side, the key question is whether the Fed signals an approaching rate hike On the Japanese side, investors are watching for stronger evidence that policy normalization is gathering pace A hawkish outcome from either central bank would normally move the exchange rate on its own. If both occur in the same week, the resulting repricing could be considerably larger than either event in isolation.
Positioning further amplifies that risk. USD/JPY has already climbed above 163 — its highest level in four decades — despite repeated verbal intervention from Japanese officials. Earlier currency intervention totaling JPY 11.73 trillion only stabilized the exchange rate for roughly six weeks before the broader yen selloff resumed.
ActionForex analysis suggests that experience has made markets increasingly reluctant to challenge the underlying interest-rate differential unless accompanied by a genuine shift in monetary policy — meaning this week’s decisions may prove far more influential than official rhetoric alone.
ActionForex’s Technical View on USD/JPY Technically, USD/JPY appears to have formed a temporary top at 163.97 following today’s retreat. Any correction should stay relatively shallow and brief as long as the 55 4H EMA, currently at 162.93, continues to hold.
A decisive break above 163.97 would resume the broader uptrend from 155.01 and target 138.2% projection of the 152.25-160.71 advance measured from 155.01 at 166.07.
On the downside, sustained trading below the 55 4H EMA would suggest the rally from 155.01 has entered a corrective phase. That would shift focus toward the 160.46 support cluster, which includes the 38.2% retracement of 155.01 to 163.97.
Key Takeaways The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50–3.75%, but futures price a 75% chance of a September hike — well ahead of economist consensus The voting breakdown and Chair Warsh’s tone on inflation and labor resilience matter more than the headline decision The BoJ is expected to hold at 1.00%, but the Outlook Report and Ueda’s language on inflation could signal an accelerated tightening timeline USD/JPY, at a 40-year high above 163, faces amplified two-sided risk if both the Fed and BoJ surprise hawkishly in the same week 163.97 is the key upside pivot; a break above targets 166.07, while a failure to hold the 55 4H EMA (162.93) opens the 160.46 support zone
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On 21 July, Stats NZ reported an acceleration in inflation: the Consumer Price Index rose 1.5% in the second quarter, while the annual inflation rate climbed to 4.1%, its highest level in more than two years and slightly above analysts’ consensus forecast of 4.0%. The increase was driven primarily by higher fuel prices amid tensions in the Middle East. The data was released after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised the official cash rate to 2.50% on 8 July, reinforcing expectations of further monetary tightening in September. However, the impact proved short-lived, as escalating tensions between the US and Iran boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, causing the New Zealand dollar to surrender part of its recent gains during the second half of the week.
Technical Outlook
On the four-hour chart, NZD/USD has been developing a short-term uptrend since 26 June, with a trendline forming as the pair advanced towards 0.5870, where resistance emerged. The pair subsequently broke below the trendline, fell beneath the lower boundary of the current market profile and declined to the 0.5765 area, where the green support level is now located. Following a rebound from this zone, the pair moved on to test the lower boundary of the market profile at 0.5810. If this level holds and the price turns lower, the green support at 0.5765 could provide support. Should the pair continue to rise, attention may return to the POC area at 0.5840.
It is worth noting the close proximity of the upper boundary of the market profile at 0.5860 and the red resistance zone at 0.5870, making this a potentially strong resistance area. The RSI + MAs indicator currently reads 46, 37 and 46. It is also worth noting that the slower moving average has yet to leave the neutral zone, while the RSI briefly entered oversold territory before returning to neutral, casting doubt on the strength of the current breakout.
Summary The pair’s near-term direction will likely depend on whether sellers can defend the lower boundary of the market profile. From a fundamental perspective, interest in the pair will hinge on whether the support provided by the stronger US dollar amid tensions in the Middle East proves more durable than the positive impact of New Zealand’s unexpectedly strong inflation data.
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The Euro (EUR) trades 0.36% higher to near 1.1410 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair trades firmly as the revival of risk-on market sentiment has diminished the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.
In the European trade, S&P500 futures trade almost 1% higher to near 7,485, reflecting a risk-on market mood. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.25% lower to near 101.20.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.40%-0.25%-0.20%0.01%-0.41%-0.30%-0.48%EUR0.40%0.11%0.19%0.39%-0.02%0.11%-0.10%GBP0.25%-0.11%0.07%0.28%-0.14%-0.04%-0.21%JPY0.20%-0.19%-0.07%0.17%-0.23%-0.13%-0.29%CAD-0.01%-0.39%-0.28%-0.17%-0.40%-0.30%-0.48%AUD0.41%0.02%0.14%0.23%0.40%0.13%-0.09%NZD0.30%-0.11%0.04%0.13%0.30%-0.13%-0.21%CHF0.48%0.10%0.21%0.29%0.48%0.09%0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The risk-appetite of financial markets has improved amidst the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran. Over the weekend, a spokesperson from the US military stated that the attacks on Iran have paused as the provided target list has been exhausted.
US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Mike Waltz said that while forces remained locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give negotiations a little bit of room. The Guardian reported.
On the domestic front, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. The impact of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference is expected to be insignificant, as he clarified in the previous press conference that “so-called forward guidance is not well-suited in the current policy juncture”.
In the Eurozone, investors await the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. The inflation data will have a significant impact on the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate expectations, given that the majority of policymakers have warned of upside inflation risks.
On Thursday, ECB President Christine Lagarde said in the press conference, “Risks to inflation tilted to upside." Lagarde added, “Energy shock likely to keep inflation well above target into first half of 2027."
Economic Indicator Fed Interest Rate Decision The Federal Reserve (Fed) deliberates on monetary policy and makes a decision on interest rates at eight pre-scheduled meetings per year. It has two mandates: to keep inflation at 2%, and to maintain full employment. Its main tool for achieving this is by setting interest rates – both at which it lends to banks and banks lend to each other. If it decides to hike rates, the US Dollar (USD) tends to strengthen as it attracts more foreign capital inflows. If it cuts rates, it tends to weaken the USD as capital drains out to countries offering higher returns. If rates are left unchanged, attention turns to the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, and whether it is hawkish (expectant of higher future interest rates), or dovish (expectant of lower future rates).
Gold (XAUUSD) prices remain steady as markets assess the latest developments in the Middle East and await the Federal Reserve's policy decision. A weaker US Dollar and lower Treasury yields have supported gold's recent recovery. At the same time, easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand, while lower oil prices eased inflation concerns. Markets now await the Federal Reserve's policy decision, which is expected to play a key role in shaping gold's next move.
Gold remains firm as markets await the Fed decision and Middle East updatesGold extended its rebound after recovering from a key support area. The recovery was supported by a softer US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields. A temporary pause in military exchanges between the United States and Iran reduced immediate demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, lower Oil prices eased inflation concerns and improved the market environment for gold.
Diplomatic efforts also supported sentiment. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei stated that mediators are working to prevent further escalation. These developments reduced immediate geopolitical concerns, although uncertainty remains. As a result, many market participants continue to monitor headlines closely before increasing exposure to gold.
Attention has now shifted to the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Investors expect the central bank to keep a cautious approach as it balances inflation risks with economic conditions. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have increased expectations for a rate hike compared with levels seen earlier this month. This uncertainty continues to limit aggressive buying in gold until the Fed provides updated guidance on interest rates and the economic outlook.
Gold technical analysis: Triangle pattern keeps XAU/USD at a key decision pointThe gold chart below shows price trading within a large triangle pattern. A falling resistance trendline has capped every recovery since the major peak earlier this year, while a broad horizontal support zone has repeatedly provided support. This combination reflects a period of consolidation after the previous rally, with both buyers and sellers defending important technical levels.
Price recently tested the horizontal support area once again before staging a modest rebound. The latest recovery has carried gold back toward the descending resistance trendline, where selling pressure has started to appear again. This reaction suggests that the falling trendline remains an important barrier. As long as price remains below this resistance, upside progress may continue to face challenges.
The triangle pattern continues to narrow as price approaches its apex, suggesting that a larger move could be developing. A sustained breakout above the descending trendline would improve the technical outlook and favor a stronger recovery. Conversely, a break below the horizontal support would complete the bearish pattern and increase the likelihood of further downside.
Gold outlook: Fed decision and Middle East developments drive the next moveGold continues to consolidate as markets await the Federal Reserve's policy decision and monitor developments in the Middle East. A weaker US Dollar and lower Treasury yields have supported the recent recovery. Diplomatic efforts have eased immediate geopolitical concerns, while the triangle pattern continues to signal an important technical decision point. The next move will likely depend on the Federal Reserve's guidance and whether price breaks above resistance or below support.
The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fell to a 16-day low last week as concerns over the UK government's fiscal plans overshadowed stronger domestic economic data and weighed on Sterling.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading around €1.1708, down more than 0.4% over the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.171379 (-0.04%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.334752 (+0.17%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.13947 (+0.21%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) came under pressure at the start of the week after Prime Minister Andy Burnham surprised markets by appointing former Defence Secretary John Healey as Chancellor.
Sterling remained on the defensive as concerns grew over the government's commitment to fiscal discipline, particularly after Burnham outlined proposals for a series of tax cuts.
These political developments drew attention away from several key UK economic releases, including the latest labour market figures and consumer price index.
The inflation data delivered a mixed picture and did little to shift Sterling. Headline CPI slowed from 2.8% to 2.6%, falling by more than expected, while core inflation unexpectedly held at 2.6% rather than easing to 2.5%.
Stronger UK data later in the week also had little impact on the Pound, despite June retail sales and the preliminary July services PMI both unexpectedly beating forecasts, as fiscal concerns continued to dominate sentiment.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) initially weakened after German producer prices contracted by more than expected in June, weighing on Eurozone inflation expectations.
However, stronger German data on Tuesday helped lift the single currency, with the ZEW economic sentiment index rising from 10.5 to a five-month high of 26.3.
The Euro also benefited from a more cautious market mood later in the week, while the European Central Bank's interest rate decision had only a limited impact. Although policymakers warned inflation is likely to remain elevated, they also highlighted growing risks to the economic outlook.
The Euro climbed to a 16-day high against the Pound on Friday after stronger-than-expected Eurozone PMI data, with GBP/EUR remaining around those levels into the weekend.
Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: BoE Decision in the Spotlight Looking ahead, the Bank of England's interest rate announcement on Thursday will be the key event for Pound investors.
Markets broadly expect policymakers to leave interest rates unchanged, meaning attention is likely to focus on the Bank's guidance.
If officials indicate that further interest rate increases remain possible in the coming months, particularly following the recent rise in energy prices, Sterling could find renewed support.
Before then, political developments are likely to remain an important driver for the Pound.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone's preliminary second-quarter GDP estimate is due on Thursday, with stronger growth likely to support the Euro.
Friday then brings the bloc's preliminary July inflation figures, where a further increase in price pressures could also underpin the single currency.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Euro (EUR) has picked up towards the 0.8540 area against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, after a mild pullback on Friday found support at 0.8530. The pair maintains the immediate bullish trend from mid-July lows at 0.8455, with bulls looking at three-week highs in the area of 0.8555.
The Euro is drawing support from a moderate relief rally on Monday, as the US and Iran halted their hostilities, which allowed Oil prices to decline about 9% from last week’s highs, with the barrel of Brent Oil down to $87.40 from above $96.00 last Thursday. Eurozone countries are net Oil importers, and the Crude rally seen over the last few weeks had threatened to strangle economic activity.
In the UK, Prime Minister Andrew Burnham’s spending plans keep investors on edge while the focus this week shifts to the Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision. The BoE will, all but certain, leave interest rates on hold, but investors will be very attentive to the vote split and Governor Bailey’s press release to assess the chances of any rate hike in the near-term.
Technical Analysis: In a bullish correction following the June-July sell-off
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8543, keeping a constructive near-term tone as it holds within a bullish channel from mid-July lows. The pair is correcting higher after a 2.5% decline from June highs, with momentum indicators hinting at a mild upside bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) is around 60, hinting at positive momentum, even as the MACD (12, 26, close, 9) has slipped marginally into negative territory.
The bullish structure maintains the July 8 and 24 highs at 0.8555 in play. Above that level, the top of the channel, now around 0.8565, and July 2 and 3 highs, in the area of 0.8575, are likely to test bulls.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the confluence of the channel floor and July 23 and 24 lows, around 0.8530. Below here, a previous resistance area, around 0.8510 (July 17, 20 highs), is likely to be targeted ahead of the July 20 low, at 0.8483.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.34%-0.20%-0.18%0.03%-0.32%-0.24%-0.44%EUR0.34%0.11%0.15%0.36%0.03%0.12%-0.11%GBP0.20%-0.11%0.04%0.25%-0.10%-0.03%-0.22%JPY0.18%-0.15%-0.04%0.18%-0.15%-0.07%-0.25%CAD-0.03%-0.36%-0.25%-0.18%-0.34%-0.26%-0.46%AUD0.32%-0.03%0.10%0.15%0.34%0.11%-0.13%NZD0.24%-0.12%0.03%0.07%0.26%-0.11%-0.23%CHF0.44%0.11%0.22%0.25%0.46%0.13%0.23% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
UOB strategists highlight that EUR/USD slipped slightly to 1.1369 as comments from European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus suggested a rate increase remains more likely than a hold. They also now expect one final 25 bps ECB hike in September to 2.50% on the deposit rate, followed by an extended pause, with risks skewed to further tightening if energy prices stay elevated.
Mild Euro pullback but hawkish ECB tilt"The European Central Bank (ECB) left all three policy rates unchanged at its 23 Jul meeting, keeping the deposit rate at 2.25%."
"EUR/USD slipped 0.1% to 1.1369, as ECB Governing Council member Gediminas Simkus indicated that a rate increase remains more likely than a hold."
"We now expect one final 25 bps rate hike in Sep, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, followed by an extended pause."
"However, additional tightening cannot be ruled out if elevated energy prices persist and lead to stronger second-round inflation effects."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The AUD/USD pair struggles to capitalize on a modest bullish gap opening on Monday and oscillates in a narrow band around the 0.7000 psychological mark through the Asian session.
The US Dollar (USD) weakens in reaction to renewed optimism over a potential diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran conflict. Furthermore, a slump in crude oil prices eases inflation fears and tempers US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, which is seen as another factor undermining the Greenback.
Adding to this, expectations of another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lend additional support to the AUD/USD pair. Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets and might opt to wait on the sidelines ahead of the crucial FOMC monetary policy meeting this week.
From a technical perspective, the AUD/USD pair keeps a constructive near-term bias above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels of the May-June downfall. This comes on top of the recent goodish rebound from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and backs the case for a further near-term appreciation.
Momentum readings also back this mildly bullish stance, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering just above the 50 line and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram. This hints that upside pressure is slowly building rather than exhausted.
However, it will still be prudent to wait for sustained strength and acceptance above the 38.2% Fibo. level at 0.7019 before placing fresh bullish bets on the AUD/USD pair and a subsequent move to the 50% retracement at 0.7066. A sustained break above these levels would open the way toward the 61.8% Fibo. at 0.7113 and then 0.7180, with the swing high at 0.7265 acting as a more distant cap.
On the downside, first support emerges at the 23.6% retracement at 0.6961, ahead of the 200-day SMA around 0.6901, while a deeper slide would expose the Fibonacci anchor zone near 0.6867.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.31%-0.20%-0.16%-0.06%-0.29%-0.20%-0.37%EUR0.31%0.08%0.15%0.23%0.01%0.12%-0.06%GBP0.20%-0.08%0.07%0.16%-0.06%0.00%-0.13%JPY0.16%-0.15%-0.07%0.06%-0.14%-0.06%-0.19%CAD0.06%-0.23%-0.16%-0.06%-0.21%-0.13%-0.28%AUD0.29%-0.01%0.06%0.14%0.21%0.11%-0.08%NZD0.20%-0.12%-0.01%0.06%0.13%-0.11%-0.18%CHF0.37%0.06%0.13%0.19%0.28%0.08%0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
British Pound strengthens beyond mid-1.3300s vs weak USD amid fresh Iran diplomacy hopesThe GBP/USD pair builds on Friday's modest bounce from a three-week low and gains strong follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. This marks the second straight day of a positive move and lifts spot prices above mid-1.3300s during the Asian session amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).
The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, moves away from the vicinity of the monthly high, retested last week, amid reviving hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran conflict. In fact, the US paused its bombing campaign following 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets late on Friday, prompting Tehran to suspend its retaliatory attacks against Washington's allies in the Middle East. Read more...
British Pound rises as Oil slide softens USD, Fed hike bets increaseThe Pound Sterling advances by some 0.20% on Friday as Oil prices tumble, weighing on the US Dollar, while the US-Iran conflict signals a further escalation, which market participants ignored. Despite registering daily gains, the GBP/USD is poised to finish the week with losses of nearly 0.70%.
Risk appetite has improved as Pakistan’s efforts to help resume talks between the US and Iran provided a tailwind for risk assets. Meanwhile, the US President Trump revealed that China and Russia are not “giving or selling weapons” to Iran, he posted on his Truth Social network. In the meantime, an article in the Wall Street Journal states that “Trump is losing patience over an Iran war with no clear end in sight,” which opens the door to further escalation, as revealed by some US officials. Read more...
British Pound: Strong UK data fail to lift GBP against US Dollar – ScotiabankScotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the British Pound (GBP) is slightly higher versus the US Dollar (USD) but lagging most G10 peers. Markets are discounting strong United Kingdom (UK) retail sales and Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surprises ahead of next week’s expected Bank of England (BoE) hawkish hold. Rate markets price modest tightening by September and November, while options show renewed demand for downside protection in GBP.
"Market participants are clearly not responding to fundamentals and ignoring the release of (far) stronger than expected retail sales data for June alongside a solid surprise to the preliminary PMI’s for July – the latter offering decent levels of expansion in manufacturing (52.8) while also delivering an unexpected recovery out of (sub-50) contraction in services with a print of 51.8." Read more...
Gold (XAU/USD) opens with a bullish gap at the start of a new week, though it struggles to capitalize on the momentum or find acceptance above the $4,100 mark as bulls seem reluctant ahead of the crucial FOMC meeting, starting on Tuesday. Crude oil prices slump around 5% amid reviving hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran war. This helps ease inflation fears and temper US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations, which, in turn, is seen undermining the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and lending some support to the non-yielding bullion.
The US paused its bombing campaign against Iran late on Friday, following 13 consecutive nights of strikes. US ambassador to the United Nations (UN) Mike Waltz said that while forces remained locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give negotiations "a little bit of room". In response, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Sunday that Tehran will halt its own attacks as long as the US does the same, fueling optimism about a lasting path to de-escalation of US-Iran tensions. This resulted in some unwinding of the geopolitical risk premium, which weighs heavily on the buck.
Moreover, the easing of hostilities dragged crude oil prices significantly lower and forced investors to trim their bets for an immediate interest rate hike by the US central bank. The outlook leads to a modest pullback in US Treasury bond yields, which turns out to be another factor that drags the USD away from the vicinity of the monthly high, retested last week. Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive bearish bets on the USD and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's policy path. Hence, the focus remains glued to the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, market participants remain skeptical about the halt in attacks. Adding to this, traffic through Bab el-Mandeb fell on July 26 after Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen attacked Saudi oil installations along the coast of the Red Sea. This adds to concerns about significant disruptions to global oil supplies due to the restricted transit through the Strait of Hormuz, which acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices. This helps limit deeper USD losses and keeps a lid on further upside for Gold, warranting some caution for aggressive bullish traders heading into the key central bank event risk.
XAU/USD daily chart
Gold could attract fresh sellers at higher levels amid bearish technical setupThe two-way price move since June 19 constitutes the formation of a rectangle on the daily chart. Against the backdrop of the recent breakdown below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), this might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase and keeps the longer-term downtrend in place.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators have improved, with the Relative Strength Index hovering just under the 50 line and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turning firmly positive. This, however, hints at a corrective rebound rather than a confirmed bullish reversal while price action is capped beneath the long-term average.
On the topside, the top boundary of the trading range near the $4,200 mark is the key resistance to beat. A daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the broader bearish bias and open the door to a more sustainable advance to the 200-day SMA at $4,493.65. Until that occurs, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective within the prevailing downtrend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.29%-0.19%-0.16%-0.05%-0.22%-0.15%-0.37%EUR0.29%0.07%0.11%0.22%0.05%0.16%-0.09%GBP0.19%-0.07%0.04%0.16%-0.01%0.06%-0.15%JPY0.16%-0.11%-0.04%0.07%-0.07%-0.00%-0.20%CAD0.05%-0.22%-0.16%-0.07%-0.16%-0.09%-0.30%AUD0.22%-0.05%0.00%0.07%0.16%0.11%-0.16%NZD0.15%-0.16%-0.06%0.00%0.09%-0.11%-0.25%CHF0.37%0.09%0.15%0.20%0.30%0.16%0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 483.10 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 478.59 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,634.75 per tola from AED 5,582.15 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
483.10
10 Grams
4,830.98
Tola
5,634.75
Troy Ounce
15,026.06
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,120.57 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,044.82 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 94,716.77 per tola from PHP 93,833.15 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,120.57
10 Grams
81,206.71
Tola
94,716.77
Troy Ounce
252,580.40
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 493.69 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 489.13 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,758.22 per tola from SAR 5,705.17 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
493.69
10 Grams
4,936.85
Tola
5,758.22
Troy Ounce
15,355.33
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
EUR/JPY gains ground after registering minor losses in the previous day, trading around 186.50 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is keeping a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The configuration of the short-term EMA above the longer-term EMA suggests a constructive trend backdrop.
Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 points to firm but not yet overbought upside momentum, hinting that buyers still retain control unless price slips back below the nearby averages. However, the daily chart technical analysis shows that the EUR/JPY cross is rising within a rising wedge, indicating a strong bearish reversal risk.
The EUR/JPY cross could find the primary resistance at the upper boundary of the rising wedge around 186.90. Further advances could support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 186.04, followed by the 50-day EMA at 185.31, aligned with the lower boundary of the rising wedge. A break below the wedge put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the five-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the seven-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.30%-0.19%-0.16%-0.07%-0.25%-0.19%-0.37%EUR0.30%0.08%0.11%0.22%0.03%0.13%-0.09%GBP0.19%-0.08%0.04%0.14%-0.02%0.02%-0.16%JPY0.16%-0.11%-0.04%0.06%-0.09%-0.04%-0.20%CAD0.07%-0.22%-0.14%-0.06%-0.16%-0.11%-0.32%AUD0.25%-0.03%0.02%0.09%0.16%0.10%-0.14%NZD0.19%-0.13%-0.02%0.04%0.11%-0.10%-0.22%CHF0.37%0.09%0.16%0.20%0.32%0.14%0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,466.58 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 36,130.88 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 425,339.00 per tola from PKR 421,423.50 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,466.58
10 Grams
364,665.80
Tola
425,339.00
Troy Ounce
1,134,245.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 536.89 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 532.16 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,262.23 per tola from MYR 6,207.01 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
536.89
10 Grams
5,368.94
Tola
6,262.23
Troy Ounce
16,699.29
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,658.26 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,543.37 it cost on Friday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 147,643.80 per tola from INR 146,303.40 per tola on friday.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,658.26
10 Grams
126,582.90
Tola
147,643.80
Troy Ounce
393,712.30
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
With crude prices falling sharply by around $10/barrel, there can be some easing in the currency markets as the Dollar Index holds stable around 101. While the index may trade within 101.50-100.70 region for a while, Euro may attempt a slow rise towards 1.1450-1.15 while above 1.1370/1.14. USDJPY can dip to 162.70 before a slow rise towards 165 resumes. Aussie looks stable while Pound has scope to rise to 1.34/35 while above immediate support at 1.33. EURINR can trade within 109.5-110.50 while USDCNY can trade within 6.75-6.7850 for some time. USDINR could have scope to dip to 96.20-96.00 while below 97-96.75. The dip can come on the back of a decline in crude prices from levels above $100 to almost $90 now (Brent).
The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. A strong fall in oil price after the news that the US-Iran peace talk can restart has dragged the yields lower. There is room to fall more to test their support. Thereafter a fresh rise is possible. The German Yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating around 6.85%. It can rise and test its resistance first and then resume the downtrend.
Dow and DAX have bounced from key support and can remain within the 52000-53000 and 24700-25500 ranges respectively. Nifty has recovered from recent lows and can rise towards 24000-24100 in the near term. Nikkei has rebounded, but while below 66000, the downside towards 63000 remains intact. Shanghai has also recovered, but while below 3900, it remains vulnerable to a pullback towards 3750-3700.
Brent and WTI can decline further towards $85 and $80 respectively before entering a sideways phase. Gold continues to hold above the key $4000 support, keeping the broader $4000-$4200 range intact. Silver is likely to remain range-bound between $55 and $65. Copper has found support near $6.30 and can rise towards $6.50 if this level holds. Natural Gas remains range-bound within the $2.80-$3.00 range.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
Gold is off the highs but holds its bullish opening gap, while struggling near $4,100 early Monday. Despite the recent rebound, buyers trade with caution, keeping a close eye on the Middle East developments ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy verdict this week.
Gold cheers guarded optimismGold kicks off the week on a positive note, extending the previous week’s rebound from near the $4,025 region.
In doing so, the bright metal rose over 1% to regain the $4,100 level briefly. The latest leg up was sponsored by reduced haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) across the board and a fall in US Treasury bond yields.
This follows a two-night pause in strikes being exchanged between the United States (US) and Iran, which offered some respite to the markets, driving Oil prices 5% lower and thus easing inflation fears.
Additionally, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told a press conference on Sunday that “mediators are working and trying to prevent tension from escalating.”
Receding inflation fears temper bets on a Fed interest rate hike, weighing on the Greenback and US Treasury bond yields, while allowing Gold buyers to try their luck.
However, Gold buyers have turned cautious as they assess whether the lull in fighting, which began on Friday evening and follows nearly two weeks of strikes, could last amid ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Gold traders also refrain from creating any big positions in the metal ahead of the Fed monetary policy meeting due to begin on Tuesday, with the verdict set to be announced on Wednesday.
Markets are pricing in roughly a 33% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, up from 12% seen 10 days ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Meanwhile, Gold’s daily technical setup also continues to caution Gold optimists, following the confirmation of the Bear Cross while momentum stays negative.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,090.11. The metal holds just above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,069.60, but remains capped by the 50-day SMA near $4,221.95, keeping the broader tone bearish as price trades beneath the medium- and long-term trend gauges. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs, clustered around $4,469.47 and $4,493.66, reinforce a heavy topside structure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 48 hints at consolidative, slightly negative momentum rather than a decisive recovery.
Additionally, keeping buyers defensive, the 100-day SMA has closed below the 200-day SMA on July 22, confirming a Bear Cross.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 21-day SMA at $4,069.60; a clear break below this short-term base would expose deeper weakness toward prior psychological and structural levels not shown on this chart. On the topside, initial resistance comes at the 50-day SMA around $4,221.95, with the 100-day SMA at $4,469.47 followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,493.66 forming a dense resistance zone that would need to be reclaimed to alleviate the prevailing bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver price (XAG) trades sharply higher near $60.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The white metal starts the week on a firm note as the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran has sent oil prices sharply lower.
The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran paused after US ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Mike Waltz, told "Fox News Sunday" that President Donald Trump had decided to pause US attacks to allow more time for diplomacy, Reuters reports.
In the Asian trade, the WTI Oil price trades 5.6% lower to near $84.00. A sharp decline in oil prices has reduced concerns of a prolong elevated inflation expectations, which has eased fears of higher interest rates by global central banks in the near term.
The Silver price underperformed in the last months when the onset of the Middle East war boosted oil prices. Technically, higher interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $60 at press time, striving to return above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $59.35.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lifts toward the mid-40s and hints at modestly improving momentum rather than outright bearish exhaustion.
On the topside, a decisive daily close above the 20-day EMA at $59.35 would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a deeper recovery. Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
AUD/USD enters a pivotal week with the Federal Reserve meeting and Australia's quarterly CPI set to drive the next major move. While the Australian dollar has recovered over the past three weeks, expectations for another RBA rate hike, renewed Middle East tensions and the outlook for the US dollar could determine whether the rally extends or begins to fade.
View related analysis:
US Dollar Rally Builds Momentum, Crude Oil Holds the Key Gold Outlook: 4,000 in Focus as Middle East Risks Build Ahead of the Weekend Australian Dollar Jumps as Employment Data Backs RBA Hawkish Bias Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Breaks Out in Style, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY in Focus Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders The Federal Reserve meeting is likely to be the primary driver for AUD/USD this week, with any shift in the Fed's guidance set to influence the US dollar. Australia's quarterly CPI report is the key domestic event, carrying the potential to reshape expectations for the RBA if inflation surprises materially to the upside. Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East remain an important wildcard for broader market sentiment and risk appetite.
Australian Labour Market Firm, but Inflation Matters More Last week's Australian employment report appeared strong on the surface, helping justify the RBA's existing tightening bias. However, much of the employment gain reflected a higher participation rate rather than a sharp acceleration in hiring, while elevated underemployment takes some of the shine off the headline figures. Unless quarterly CPI delivers a meaningful upside surprise, the labour market data alone is unlikely to convince the RBA that another rate hike is imminent. Market pricing for an August RBA rate hike had risen to 43% by Friday's close following the employment report and renewed tensions in the Middle East.
The RBA has previously warned that higher crude oil prices could warrant tighter policy if they lift inflation expectations, even at the expense of weaker employment. And that makes the Middle East conflict a greater threat to RBA policy than employment data. Though a hot inflation print this week could tip RBA hike odds above 50%.
RBA Goven ore Michelle Bullockl speaks on Tuesday. But given the proximity to the CPI release, there's a reasonable chance she'll avoid giving away much about the policy outlook. If so, the market reaction should be limited.
Source: ABS, RBA, LSEG
Fed to Hold, but Will Warsh Signal More Hikes? The Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, leaving investors focused on Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance and any changes to the policy statement. Markets continue to anticipate rate hikes later this year, so any pushback against those expectations could provide fresh support for the US dollar. Conversely, a more dovish tone would likely weigh on the greenback and offer support to AUD/USD.
While the latest flare-up in the Middle East has raised inflation concerns, the recent soft US inflation report may give the Federal Reserve scope to look through any energy-driven price shock. Although Fed funds futures imply a 55% chance of a September hike and a 39% chance of another in December, I doubt policymakers will provide a strong signal in either direction at this week's meeting.
While Core PCE will be watched to see whether it reinforces the softer CPI report, traders are likely to place greater weight on crude oil prices and the outcome of this week's Fed meeting when assessing the inflation outlook.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar AUD/USD trades near 0.7000 while the Australian dollar outperforms most major currencies ahead of Fed and Australian CPI events.
What Is Driving AUD/USD This Week? US dollar remains the dominant driver, with AUD/USD maintaining a strong -0.90 60-day correlation to the DXY. China still matters, with the yuan (CNH) retaining a strong positive correlation over the 20- and 60-day periods. Commodity links remain firm, particularly with gold, copper and WTI crude, reinforcing AUD's sensitivity to the global growth and inflation outlook. Equity correlations are mixed, with the 10-day relationship to the S&P 500 strengthening while the longer-term link remains weak. Watch the DXY first—a sustained US dollar move is still the most likely catalyst for the next major move in AUD/USD.
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report Large speculators increased their net-short exposure for a sixth consecutive week to 37.7k contracts, the largest net-short position in 32 weeks. Asset managers reduced their net-long exposure by 5.4k contracts to 35.1k. While neither group is signalling an extreme in positioning, AUD/USD has risen for three consecutive weeks despite increasingly bearish speculative positioning. If this week's CPI report fails to strengthen expectations for an RBA rate hike, AUD/USD's recent rally could struggle to extend.
Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG
For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.
AUD/USD Options and Volatility Analysis (Risk Reversals, HVN Levels) It remains a mixed picture for AUD/USD, although implied volatility is edging higher ahead of Australia's quarterly CPI report and the Fed meeting. The one-week implied volatility range sits between 0.6824 and 0.7057, while spot prices continue to tussle with the 0.7000 level.
A doji formed last week and closed below 0.7000, warning that the recent rebound may be losing momentum. The daily 50-day moving average is also acting as resistance, while risk reversals suggest growing demand for downside protection. If Australia's inflation report fails to surprise materially to the upside and the Fed refrains from signalling a more hawkish policy outlook, traders may look to fade minor rallies on expectations that AUD/USD will surrender some of the gains made over the past three weeks.
Key highlightsEUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.1475 resistance zone.A bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.1405 on the 4-hour chart.EUR/USD technical analysisLooking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below 1.1420, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bears pushed the pair toward the 1.1365 support.
If there is an increase in bearish pressure, the pair could decline below 1.1350. The first major support could be near 1.1325. The main support might be 1.1300.
A downside break and close below 1.1300 might send the pair toward 1.1265. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1240. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1400. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1405.
The next major resistance might be 1.1420 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above 1.1420 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1450. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1475.
EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.1475 resistance zone. A bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.1405 on the 4-hour chart. GBP/USD trimmed most gains and traded below 1.3400. WTI Crude Oil prices might attempt a move above $95.00. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro failed to clear the 1.1475 hurdle against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh decline below 1.1450 and 1.1420.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below 1.1420, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bears pushed the pair toward the 1.1365 support.
If there is an increase in bearish pressure, the pair could decline below 1.1350. The first major support could be near 1.1325. The main support might be 1.1300.
A downside break and close below 1.1300 might send the pair toward 1.1265. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1240. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1400. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1405.
The next major resistance might be 1.1420 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above 1.1420 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1450. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1475.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price seems to be following a bullish path, and the bulls could soon aim for a move above the $95.00 level.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
German IFO Business Climate Index for July 2026 – Forecast 86.1, versus 85.6 previous. German IFO Current Assessment Index for July 2026 – Forecast 87.1, versus 87.0 previous. German IFO Expectations Index for July 2026 – Forecast 84.2, versus 84.1 previous. US Durable Goods Orders for June 2026 – Forecast +1.6% versus -4.5% previous.
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The falling oil prices reduced inflation fears and put downward pressure on bond yields. This introduced a correction in the U.S. dollar index. These developments supported the rally in gold and silver prices on Monday.
But the key event for the week is the Federal Reserve meeting, which will be crucial in making the next move in gold and silver. If the Fed’s message is hawkish, then it could lead to higher Treasury yields and squeeze gold towards the $4 000 handle. Silver could also soften on the back of higher rates, dampening investment demand and growth prospects.
Conversely, a more dovish Fed outlook would help to provide a stronger recovery in both metals as the dollar will weaken. But the central bank gold buying could keep supporting gold while silver might do even better if lower yields coincide with rising industrial demand.
Gold Price Forecast: $4,200 Breakout Could Open the Door to $5,000 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating above the $4,000 area and trading towards $4,200. The resistance at $4,200 is defined by the descending trend line that is stretching from March 2026 highs.
A break above $4,200 will push the price towards $4,350 and a break above $4,350 will open the door for a rally towards the $5,000 area. This area is seen by the resistance of the descending broadening wedge pattern.
The Japanese yen weakened toward 164 against the U.S. dollar, its lowest level in around 40 years. Middle East tensions supported the dollar, while concerns about Japan’s finances and the large gap between U.S. and Japanese interest rates continued to pressure the yen. Warnings of possible intervention had little effect.
Global stock markets fell as investors became more cautious about the large amounts being spent on artificial intelligence. A sharp rise in oil prices also hurt market sentiment. WTI crude moved higher as fighting in the Middle East continued and hopes for a ceasefire faded.
Higher oil prices increased concerns that inflation could rise again, making a Federal Reserve rate hike more possible. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged but said future increases were still possible. Economic data was limited and mostly close to expectations.
Markets This Week U.S. Stocks The Dow Jones fell for a third consecutive week as high WTI crude oil prices and tariff concerns encouraged further selling. The index remains in a short-term downtrend, and there may be more room to fall after the strong gains since June. Selling near the 10-day moving average may offer the best opportunities while the bearish trend continues. Resistance levels are at 52,500, 53,000, 53,500 and 54,000. Support is seen at 51,500, 51,000, 50,000, 49,500 and 49,000.
Japanese Stocks The Nikkei 225 ended the week lower as concerns about high valuations and losses in overseas equity markets weakened sentiment. The index continued to fall despite the weaker yen, which is a bearish sign. Selling into strength near the 10-day moving average remains the preferred strategy this week. Resistance is seen at 66,000, 67,000, 68,000, 69,000 and 70,000, while support is at 64,000, 62,000, 61,000, 60,000 and 59,000.
USD/JPY USD/JPY strengthened significantly last week, rising above 163 and testing 164. Higher WTI crude oil prices increased U.S. inflation concerns, supporting expectations that the interest-rate gap between the United States and Japan will remain wide. Japan’s government spending plans also raised concerns about increased government borrowing. For short-term traders, selling near resistance at 164 may offer the best opportunity early this week, ahead of the important Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings. Resistance is at 164.00 and 165.00, while support is seen at 162.00, 161.00, 160.50, 160.00, 159.00, 158.00, 157.00 and 156.00.
Gold Gold briefly fell below $4,000 early last week as higher WTI crude oil prices increased expectations of higher U.S. interest rates, which is negative for gold because it does not provide a yield. Support near last month’s low held, with central banks likely buying at lower levels, but the weekly recovery remained limited. Strong support may continue to protect the downside, but with U.S. interest rates likely to rise this year, large gains could be difficult. Range trading may therefore be the better short- and medium-term strategy. Resistance is at $4,150, $4,200, $4,300, $4,400 and $4,500, while support is at $3,950, $3,900, and $3,800.
Crude Oil WTI crude oil rose sharply for a second consecutive week after negotiations between the U.S. and Iran broke down. However, the significant rise in oil prices may encourage the U.S. to return to negotiations and reduce tensions to protect the economy. Looking for selling opportunities after any positive developments may therefore be the better strategy this week. Resistance is at $95, $100 and $105, while support is at $80.00, $75.00, $67.50, $65, and $60.
Bitcoin Bitcoin briefly rose above resistance at $65,000 early last week, but weaker risk appetite as stock markets fell pushed the market slightly lower by the close. The 10-day moving average now suggests that the recent uptrend has ended, so returning to a range-trading strategy may be the better approach in the short term. Resistance is at $65,000, $75,000, $80,000, $85,000, and $90,000, while support is at $60,000, $55,000 and $50,000.
This Week’s Focus Monday: Japan Coincident Indicator, U.S. Durable Goods Orders Tuesday: U.S. OPEC Meeting and CB Consumer Confidence Wednesday: Australia CPI, U.S. Fed Interest Rate Decision Thursday: Australia Building Approvals, E.U. GDP and Unemployment Rate, U.K. BoE Interest Rate Decision, U.S. Core PCE Price Index and GDP Friday: Japan Tokyo Core CPI, Unemployment Rate, Industrial Production, Retail Sales and BoJ Interest Rate Decision, Australia PPI, U.K. Nationwide HPI, E.U. CPI, U.S. Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Markets will focus on central bank meetings this week. The Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but their comments could still cause large market moves. Markets now see an 82% chance of a U.S. rate rise in September, up from less than 53% a week ago. U.S. durable goods orders will also be important, while another rise in WTI crude oil could increase inflation worries and put pressure on stock markets.
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Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 4,103 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Gold prices pushed higher as a sharp drop in oil prices eased market fears over inflation and interest rate hikes, following a weekend pause in military hostilities between the US and Iran.
Attention now shifts to a dense week of economic catalysts that could spark fresh market volatility. Investors face an unusually heavy lineup of central-bank decisions, including meetings by the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), and Bank of Japan (BoJ), alongside pivotal inflation and growth figures. Key releases such as US GDP, US core PCE inflation, and CPI reports from the Eurozone and Australia are expected to heavily influence global interest rate expectations.
The diplomatic landscape saw a reprieve after the US suspended its two-week bombing campaign against Iran late Friday. Tehran responded by holding back retaliatory strikes against Washington's Middle Eastern allies for a second consecutive night. US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz noted that while American forces remain locked and loaded, President Donald Trump wants to give room for potential negotiations.
Reuters corroborated this stance, quoting a senior Iranian official who stated that Tehran's policy remains "attack for attack"—meaning if US strikes halt, Iran will likewise suspend its military operations.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
