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The Pound-Canadian Dollar could stay supported if UK inflation keeps BoE hike expectations alive, although firmer oil prices may help the Loonie recover. The Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate wavered last week amid rising oil prices and US-Canada trade tensions, before upbeat UK GDP supported Sterling.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8764, up over 0.3% on the week and having struck a nine-day high.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.875735 (-0.04%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.608386 (-0.03%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.38685 (-0.02%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) was steady at the start of the week following as John Healey delivered his first major address as Chancellor of the Exchequer.
In his speech he outlined plans to support economic growth while reassuring markets that he would take a responsible approach to the public finances, with the comments offering modest support to GBP.
Sterling then struggled to establish a clear direction as a lack of major UK data left the currency trading largely sideways.
The Pound found firmer footing on Friday after the latest UK GDP figures showed the economy expanded by 0.3% in July, beating forecasts. The stronger-than-expected reading provided a boost to GBP and helped Sterling end the week on a positive note.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) had a strong start to the week as escalating tensions in the Middle East saw oil prices surge, thereby boosting demand for the crude-linked ‘Loonie’.
CAD then relinquished some gains later in the week as the US-Canada trade war intensified, with Canada’s tariffs taking effect on Tuesday and US President Donald Trump retaliating by banning some Canadian goods.
Oil prices continued to rise, however, helping the Canadian Dollar stay supported.
Crude then eased back on Friday, leaving the ‘Loonie’ vulnerable to losses against the Pound.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: BoE Announcement Takes Centre Stage Looking ahead, the UK’s latest labour market figures will kick off a busy week for the Pound. Unemployment is expected to have risen in the three months to July, which could weigh on Sterling if accompanied by softer wage growth.
Wednesday’s consumer price index could offer some support, with both headline and core inflation forecast to have increased in August. Headline inflation is expected to have climbed from 2.9% to 3.1%.
The focus will then turn to the Bank of England (BoE). With interest rates expected to remain unchanged, GBP will look to the bank’s forward guidance for direction. A cautious tone could pressure the Pound, while a more hawkish outlook may support it. The week’s employment and inflation figures could help shape the BoE’s message.
Finally, UK retail sales are forecast to contract in August, potentially adding further pressure to GBP on Friday.
For the ‘Loonie’, the key data release is Canada’s August CPI on Monday afternoon. If inflation held steady last month, CAD could be subdued.
Elsewhere, oil price dynamics will likely continue to drive movement. Could a deepening crisis in the Middle East see crude climb higher, thereby boosting CAD?
TL;DR: GBP/JPY enters a back-to-back central-bank week with three independent arguments for a rebound—the BoE’s hawkish bloc has little room to retreat, a fully priced BoJ hike may give Yen no new information, and the pair is oversold at a two-layer technical support zone—creating an asymmetric setup where the bullish threshold is lower than the bearish one.
Three Independent Arguments, One Cross GBP/JPY enters a back-to-back central-bank week with three independent forces pointing toward a potential rebound. The Bank of England’s widening hawkish bloc leaves limited room for a materially dovish shift, while the Bank of Japan may struggle to deliver anything beyond a rate increase already reflected in Yen. At the same time, GBP/JPY is oversold and attempting to establish a floor within a layered technical support zone.
None of the three arguments guarantees the pair has completed its decline from 219.56. Together, however, they create an asymmetric setup. A Sterling-supportive BoE assessment and a non-committal BoJ would reinforce a technical rebound that requires only a break of minor resistance at 209.01. Renewed downside acceleration would require a decisive breach of substantially deeper support at 206.10.
That makes GBP/JPY more than a convenient way to combine two central-bank meetings. It’s the cross where separate UK and Japanese policy risks compound rather than offset each other.
Yen Has Run Ahead of the BoJ’s Likely Message Yen has risen sharply this month ahead of the BoJ’s September 18 meeting. However, the move in the currency appears more aggressive than the additional near-term tightening embedded in the rates market.
A September increase from 1.00% to 1.25% is already fully priced. The OIS-implied rate for the October 30 meeting stands at approximately 1.28%, only marginally above the level the September hike alone would produce. That implies roughly a 10–15% probability of another increase at the immediately following meeting.
Markets are therefore not genuinely positioned for back-to-back hikes, despite broader expectations that the BoJ will tighten faster than previously assumed. The near-term curve points instead toward a September move followed by a pause.
Takuji Aida, a reflationist adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, provides a useful reference point. Aida brought his own forecast for the next BoJ increase forward to September, but expects the subsequent hike in January 2027. He then anticipates a return to an approximately six-month pace. His forecast supports further normalization while stopping well short of an uninterrupted sequence of rapid increases.
The Hike May Offer Yen Little New Information The principal risk for Yen isn’t that the BoJ fails to raise rates. It’s that the expected hike arrives without an incremental signal about what follows.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to avoid committing to a timetable for another increase. He could repeat the conditional message delivered in July that the BoJ could move faster if economic and inflation conditions warrant. But conditional optionality wouldn’t constitute new forward guidance.
That distinction matters because Yen has already benefited from the buildup toward the September hike and the continuing possibility of intervention. If the BoJ delivers the expected move but offers no clearer guidance, investors would receive confirmation of an event already priced, rather than a fresh reason to extend Yen’s advance.
The result could be a sell-the-fact reaction. This is a near-term event-risk argument, not a rejection of the broader BoJ tightening cycle. The same Reuters panel shows that 89% of economists expect the policy rate to reach at least 1.50% by the end of March 2027, while 62% expect at least 1.75% by mid-2027. Medium-term normalization can remain intact even if Yen retreats after Friday’s decision.
The BoE’s Hawkish Bloc Has Little Room to Retreat Sterling approaches the Bank of England’s September 17 meeting with a different asymmetry. The expected decision is another hold, but the Monetary Policy Committee’s voting pattern has become progressively more hawkish.
Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill was the sole member to support a hike in April, producing an 8–1 vote. External Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene joined him in June, narrowing the majority to 7–2. External Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann then joined the dissent in July, producing a 6–3 split.
The progression is more informative than the expected headcount alone. Each of the past three meetings added one official to the hawkish camp. For any member of the dissenting trio to return to a hold vote in September would require a reversal of recently expressed policy conviction rather than a routine fluctuation in the vote.
The energy backdrop raises that hurdle. The July dissent already cited the inflation uncertainty created by developments in the Middle East. With oil now above $100 and higher than it was at the July meeting, the most obvious external inflation risk has intensified rather than faded.
That doesn’t make a hike this week the base case. It does, however, reduce the likelihood that the dissenting bloc will shrink or that the committee will collectively sound more relaxed about inflation.
With No New Forecasts, the Minutes Carry the Signal An unchanged 6–3 vote would protect Sterling against a dovish repricing, but it might not provide a strong new bullish catalyst because markets already expect the dissenting trio to hold its position.
The more important test will be the language used by the six-member majority. September brings no new Monetary Policy Report, leaving the BoE without a fresh set of growth and inflation projections. The next full forecast round won’t arrive until November 5.
That makes the minutes the principal vehicle through which neutral members can signal whether higher energy costs have changed their assessment. A stronger emphasis on second-round inflation risks, wage transmission, or the possibility of further tightening would indicate concern is spreading beyond the established hawkish minority. More balanced language that stresses the growth consequences of higher oil prices would limit the Sterling response.
The vote establishes a relatively firm floor beneath Sterling expectations. The majority’s description of the risks will determine whether the meeting also provides an upside catalyst.
Why GBP/JPY Is the Cleaner Expression Sterling’s reaction may be less straightforward against the Dollar. If the Fed’s own projections validate a broader US tightening cycle, higher US yields could offset or dominate a hawkish BoE message. GBP/USD would therefore require investors to judge two potentially supportive rate stories at once.
EUR/GBP captures the BoE side of the argument but lacks the complementary Japanese event risk. GBP/JPY combines both elements: limited room for a dovish BoE surprise and the possibility that a fully priced BoJ hike fails to give Yen another incremental boost.
The expected moves are modest rather than dramatic. The BoE doesn’t need to signal an imminent hike, and the BoJ doesn’t need to abandon its normalization path. GBP/JPY would benefit if the BoE preserves its hawkish pressure while the BoJ declines to endorse a rapid follow-up move.
Mild Sterling upside risk and mild Yen downside risk therefore compound on the same cross.
ActionForex’s Technical View on GBP/JPY: A Two-Layer Support Structure The technical case was established independently of the central-bank analysis, but it arrives at a similar conclusion.
GBP/JPY’s fall from 219.56 reached a temporary low at 207.06 last week. That low sits inside a near-term support cluster formed by the falling channel floor around 207.25 and the 100% projection of the decline from 219.56 to 209.55, measured from 217.45, at 207.44.
A second and more important layer stands at 206.10. This represents the 38.2% retracement of the entire advance from 184.35 to 219.56. The resulting structure is therefore not a single narrow confluence zone, but two adjacent layers: initial support at 207.06–207.44 and medium-term protection at 206.10.
Momentum conditions support the possibility of stabilization. Daily RSI has fallen to approximately 28.86, placing it in oversold territory. On the four-hour chart, RSI has recovered to around 43.7 after dropping below 30. The four-hour MACD is also recovering from deeply negative territory and displays bullish divergence against price.
Those signals don’t confirm a bottom is in place. They indicate downside momentum is losing force as the pair tests an important support structure.
The Rebound Has the Lower Technical Threshold The base case is for a corrective rebound from the current area, possibly after one more brief dip. Confirmation would require a break above 209.01 minor resistance, which would turn the near-term bias upward.
The first objective would then be the 55-period EMA on the four-hour chart, currently around 210.13. A firm break above that average would open the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 219.56 to 207.06, at 211.83.
Such a move would remain corrective. GBP/JPY wouldn’t need to establish a full bullish reversal or recover the entire decline from 219.56 for the rebound thesis to work.
The bearish threshold is more demanding. A decisive break below 206.10 would invalidate the two-layer support structure and suggest the decline is accelerating. The next downside projection would then be the 161.8% extension of 219.56 to 209.55 from 217.45, at 201.25.
This creates an important structural asymmetry. The rebound requires GBP/JPY to clear minor resistance at 209.01. The bearish continuation scenario requires a decisive break of deeper medium-term support at 206.10.
How the BoE–BoJ Sequence Maps Onto the Chart Both technical thresholds will remain live across the Thursday–Friday central-bank sequence.
A stable 6–3 BoE vote accompanied by firmer language from the majority would increase the probability of GBP/JPY testing 209.01. If the BoJ then delivers its fully priced hike without offering a clearer timetable for the next move, a sell-the-fact reaction in Yen could provide the additional push needed to break that resistance.
The opposite sequence would threaten the support structure. A softer BoE assessment, particularly if one of the three hawks returns to a hold vote, would weaken Sterling’s policy support. If the BoJ then signals another increase could arrive substantially sooner than the curve currently implies, GBP/JPY could retest 207.06 and ultimately challenge 206.10.
The technical setup didn’t arise because of the fundamental argument. Its importance comes from reaching the same conditional conclusion independently: the pair has a lower barrier to initiating a corrective rebound than to confirming another accelerated decline.
Three Reasons, One Conditional Base Case GBP/JPY enters the central-bank sequence with three reasons to rebound. The BoE’s increasingly hawkish voting pattern limits the scope for a dovish surprise. The fully priced BoJ hike may struggle to deliver an incremental catalyst for further Yen strength. The pair itself is oversold and attempting to stabilize above a two-layer support structure.
The case remains conditional. A break above 209.01 would provide the first confirmation and open 210.13, followed by 211.83. A decisive break below 206.10 would overturn the setup and expose 201.25.
For now, the fundamental and technical risks converge around a rebound from the current area or after one more brief decline. That convergence—not simply the presence of two central-bank meetings—is what makes GBP/JPY the cross to watch.
Key Takeaways The BoE’s hawkish dissent has widened for three consecutive meetings (8-1 to 7-2 to 6-3), making it politically harder for any dissenter to revert to a hold vote in September. A September BoJ hike to 1.25% is fully priced, but the OIS curve implies only a 10-15% chance of a follow-up move in October, leaving Yen little new information to trade on. Neither central bank has fresh forecasts this meeting; the BoE’s minutes and the BoJ’s press conference tone will carry more signal than the decisions themselves. GBP/JPY sits at a two-layer support structure (207.06-207.44 and 206.10), with daily RSI oversold at 28.86 and 4H MACD showing bullish divergence. The setup is asymmetric: a break above 209.01 confirms a rebound toward 210.13 and 211.83, while only a decisive break of the deeper 206.10 support would open 201.25.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot Silver (XAGUSD) is edging lower early Monday, while sitting inside Friday’s range. The price action suggests investor indecision and impending volatility. On Friday, the market’s main trend turned down when sellers took out the September 2 bottom at $63.31. A trade through $62.85 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. Taking out $68.33 will change the main trend to up.
The market is also near the 50-day moving average at $62.58, making it potential support. The 200-day moving average is a distant $73.00.
The July 17 to August 28 range is $54.78 to $71.18. Its retracement zone at $62.98 to $61.04 may have stopped the selling on Friday at $62.85. Inside this zone is the 50-day moving average at $62.58. This makes $62.98 to $62.85 an important area to watch for a technical bounce or a technical breakdown.
Additional support is 50% of the all-time high at $60.835. Near-term resistance is a pair of 50% levels at $65.59 and $67.01.
What to Watch Oil is the outside market calling the shots on silver this week. A shipping agreement on the Strait or a Saudi pipeline repair update takes pressure off crude and gives the metal room. Without either, the inflation argument stays alive straight into Wednesday’s decision. The market is telling traders that higher energy prices are a rate problem before they become an inflation-hedge reason to own silver. That is why crude is pushing higher and XAGUSD is trading lower. Warsh’s tone on energy prices after the announcement determines whether the rate pressure gets worse or starts to lift.
The bias leans bearish with the main trend down on the daily swing chart after Friday’s break of $63.31. The retracement zone at $62.98 to $61.04 held Friday’s selling at $62.85 with the 50-day moving average at $62.58 sitting inside the zone. A break through the 50-day with conviction opens the downside toward $60.835. Resistance sits at $65.59 and $67.01 with the swing top at $68.33 needed to change the trend back up.
The foreign exchange market is heading into a busy week, with the Federal Reserve meeting on 15–16 September, followed by the Bank of England’s rate decision on 17 September. This sequence of central bank meetings, rather than individual macroeconomic releases, is shaping the current fundamental backdrop for the pound. Ahead of the decisions from the two major central banks, market participants are likely to remain cautious as they assess the future direction of monetary policy in the US and UK.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
On the GBP/USD four-hour chart, a pronounced short-term downtrend developed between 21 August and 2 September, pushing the pair towards the green support level at 1.3475. From this low, the price began to recover, forming a rising wedge in which both boundaries slope upwards, although the lower boundary is rising at a faster pace. On 10 September, the price attempted to break below the wedge’s lower boundary, but the move has so far remained within the current market profile, with the price holding between its upper boundary at 1.3545 and the Point of Control (POC) at 1.3515.
If the breakout proves false and the price moves through the profile’s upper boundary, the red resistance level around 1.3570 could halt the advance. If the price does continue lower and breaks through both the POC and the profile’s lower boundary at 1.3500, market participants could turn their attention to the green support level at 1.3475. The RSI + MAs indicator shows readings of 48, 46 and 47, with all three measures sitting in the middle of the neutral zone, making it too early to confirm the breakout.
Key Takeaways The attempted wedge breakout has yet to develop beyond the profile, while neutral RSI + MAs readings provide no clear indication of the next direction. More pronounced price action in the pair is likely to emerge as the Bank of England’s rate decision approaches.
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The Pound-Dollar rate could strengthen if the Federal Reserve delivers a hawkish hike, while dovish Bank of England guidance may leave Sterling vulnerable. Trade in the Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was mixed last week amid an uneven market mood and key economic indicators.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3514. Basically unchanged from the start of last week’s session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.352344 (-0.03%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.159715 (-0.02%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 153.38411 (-0.09%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) opened last week’s session on the defensive, with subdued trading conditions following the US Labor Day holiday limiting liquidity in the ‘greenback’.
USD then proved vulnerable to a sharp appreciation in the Japanese yen (JPY), which rocketed higher on expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could tighten monetary policy, alongside growing speculation of further intervention to support the yen.
However, the US Dollar staged a marked recovery as the week progressed, with a deterioration in global risk appetite helping to revive demand for the safe-haven currency, as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed oil prices sharply higher and triggered fresh turbulence in global bond markets.
While a subsequent pullback in oil prices tempered USD demand somewhat towards the end of the week, robust inflation figures reinforced bets for an impending Federal Reserve and allowed the currency to close the week broadly higher.
While able to accelerate against the US Dollar through the first half of last week, the Pound’s (GBP) performance against its other peers was rather more muted.
Sterling was initially flat as Chancellor John Healey struck an optimistic note on growth in his first major speech, but refused to rule out tax hikes in his upcoming budget.
Fresh volatility across international debt markets also limited Sterling sentiment, as domestic borrowing costs soared amid fears that the latest spike in energy prices could contribute to a sharp increase in global inflation.
The Pound then faltered against a stronger US Dollar in the latter half of the week but was able to firm elsewhere after the UK’s latest GDP figures reported a surprise acceleration in month-on-month growth in July.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Rate Hike to Lift the ‘Greenback’ Turning to this week, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate could see some significant movement on the back of a highly anticipated rate decision from the Federal Reserve.
The Fed is broadly expected to hike rates this week, but the move is not yet fully priced in, which may provide some scope for the ‘Greenback’ to appreciate on Wednesday, particularly if the bank hints that more tightening may be required in the coming months.
Meanwhile, GBP investors will be kept on their toes with the Bank of England’s (BoE) own interest rate decision and several high-tier UK economic indicators.
No policy changes are expected from the BoE this week, placing the focus on the bank’s accompanying policy statement and forward guidance.
Should policymakers strike a dovish tone and push back against bets that it will tighten policy later in the year, it could trigger significant weakness in the Pound.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Pound-Euro could build on recent gains if UK inflation strengthens BoE rate expectations, although softer jobs data may limit Sterling’s upside. The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate rose at the end of last week as stronger-than-forecast UK GDP lifted Sterling.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1659, up 0.2% on the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.166274 (0.00%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.352603 (-0.01%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.159765 (-0.01%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) was steady at the start of the week amid a speech from Chancellor John Healey. During his first major address, he highlighted plans to encourage economic growth while assuring markets that he would maintain a responsible approach to the public finances. The comments provided some modest support for GBP.
Sterling struggled to establish a clear trend as the week progressed, with a lack of major UK data leaving it largely directionless.
Friday brought a stronger UK GDP reading, with the latest figures showing the economy expanded by 0.3% in July, beating expectations. The result boosted GBP, helping it end the week on stronger footing.
The Euro (EUR) struggled to attract support at the start of last week after Germany’s latest industrial production figures showed a shock contraction in factory output. The decline offset the boost from upwardly revised Eurozone GDP figures.
The single currency remained subdued on Tuesday, with Germany’s trade data offering little encouragement. Although the trade surplus widened to €21.3bn in July, its largest since August 2024, this was largely driven by a sharper fall in imports than exports.
EUR edged higher on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) softened, although anticipation ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision limited the Euro’s gains.
The ECB’s decision on Thursday saw the Euro trade largely sideways. While the central bank delivered an expected rate hike, its guidance fell short of hawkish expectations, weighing on EUR. The single currency then remained subdued on Friday as a lack of Eurozone data and fading safe-haven demand limited movement.
Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: BoE Interest Rate Decision in the Spotlight Looking ahead, the UK’s latest labour market report will be the first major data point to watch this week. With unemployment expected to have risen in the three months to July, the Pound could come under pressure, especially if the figures also show wage growth losing momentum.
Wednesday’s UK consumer price index is likely to be the next potential boost for Sterling. The consensus points to both headline and core inflation picking up in August, with the headline rate forecast to rise from 2.9% to 3.1%.
The week’s biggest event could come from the Bank of England (BoE). With no change to interest rates anticipated, attention will instead turn to the bank’s guidance on what comes next. A more cautious message could drag on the Pound, whereas a more hawkish stance may lend GBP support. The employment and inflation figures released earlier in the week could play a part in shaping that message.
Rounding off the Pound’s agenda, UK retail sales are forecast to fall in August, which could put further pressure on GBP on Friday.
For the Euro, the key release is Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment index for September. A forecast improvement this month could boost the single currency.
Later in the week, speeches from ECB policymakers could influence EUR.
Gold is trading near 4,348 USD per troy ounce early on Monday. The precious metal has now closed lower for three consecutive weeks.
Investors are assessing the latest US inflation data ahead of this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Headline inflation held steady at 3.4% year-on-year in August, in line with expectations, while CPI rose 0.4% month-on-month, marking its fastest increase in three months.
Core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month, its strongest increase since April and above the 0.2% forecast. At the same time, annual core inflation slowed to 2.4%, its lowest level since March 2021.
Earlier, producer price data also pointed to accelerating inflationary pressures, driven in part by higher energy costs amid the conflict with Iran. Meanwhile, labour market data indicated that employment conditions remain relatively stable.
After the CPI release, markets raised expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike this week is now estimated at around 90%, up from about 70% before the inflation data were released.
This shift in rate expectations remains a bearish factor for gold, as higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding precious metal.
XAU/USD Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around 4,331. A downward move towards 4,292 and a subsequent rebound towards 4,400 have now been completed.
Today, a new downward move is developing towards 4,300. A break below this level could open the way for the bearish trend to continue towards 4,215.
The MACD indicator supports continued short-term downward momentum. Its signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.
On the H1 XAU/USD chart, the market broke below 4,355 and completed a downward move towards 4,322. A consolidation range around 4,355 has now largely formed.
A downside breakout from this range could lead to a decline towards 4,300, with the broader bearish trend potentially extending towards 4,215.
The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario. Its signal line remains below 50 and points sharply downwards towards 20, indicating continued short-term downside pressure.
XAU/USD Outlook Gold remains under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting as stronger-than-expected inflation data have reinforced expectations of another rate hike.
From a technical perspective, the bearish scenario remains dominant. The immediate target is a decline towards 4,300, while a confirmed break below this level could extend the move towards 4,215.
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Focus for the Euro is what occurs post the recent European Central Bank (ECB) decision. The ECB chose to increase interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time in 2022. Renewed increases in inflation, driven by rising energy prices, has policymakers focused on good policymaking. EUR/USD initially sold off on the news as investors digested the growing income risks against slowing economic conditions. Speeches from President Lagarde and many of her colleagues are due at various points today, market participants should closely follow these speeches for update on future policy decisions.
For sterling, the main event this Thursday is the Bank of England meeting. About 75% of participants expect the BoE to stand pat. In the absence of any blow-up Middle East conflict, we’ll see increased re-invigoration in demand for higher yielding assets. However, ruptures to Middle East Oil continue to grow and will further increase oil prices. Increased oil prices will lead to inflation in the UK, narrowing policy divergences between the BoE, Fed and ECB.
Fundamental bias: DXY moderately bullish, EUR neutral, GBP neutral, with this week’s Fed and BoE decisions likely to determine the next major policy divergence.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Breaks Above $99.26 as $99.39 Comes Into Focus
Higher interest rate expectations also rise the cost of gold, as they increase the cost of opportunity by increasing bond yields along with other non-yielding assets. The Federal Reserve’s meeting is scheduled for Wednesday, and while market participants are interested in the decision,Warsh’s press conference and new rate projections will attract just as much interest.
Geopolitics will provide the counterweight. Over the weekend, the disruption of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline by drone attacks poses a risk to supply in the Middle East. The Houthi’s have been continuously disrupting trade through Bab el-Mandeb and, along with Iran, have been disrupting trade through the Strait of Hormuz, creating an energy supply disruption. Although the disruptions will positively support the gold market due to the energy price crisis, inflation expectations will continue to increase, prompting tighter monetary policies, to be longer and more aggressive.
Like gold, the pressure on silver to yield also exists. Industrial exposure makes silver even more susceptible than gold to rising borrowing costs and energy prices should they impact global manufacturing demand. Reuters documented silver’s move lower Monday with investors positioning for this week’s Fed decision.
Fundamental bias: Neutral to bearish for gold ahead of the Fed, neutral to bearish for silver with policy guidance on Wednesday being the key element.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Stays Below $4,355 as $4,312 Support Comes Into Focus
EUR/USD started a correction move from the 1.1650 resistance. It faces key hurdles near 1.1635 and 1.1650 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil prices rallied and tested $105. Gold bulls are still struggling to push prices above $4,480 and $4,500. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro failed to settle above 1.1650 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD corrected some gains and traded below 1.1620 to move into a consolidation zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and tested the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A low was formed at 1.1569, and the pair started a consolidation phase.
On the upside, an immediate resistance could be near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.1654 swing high to the 1.1569 low at 1.1620.
The next major resistance might be near the 100 simple moving average at 1.1635. The main hurdle could still be 1.1650. A close above 1.1650 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1720.
If there is another drop, the pair might find bids near 1.1565. The first major support could be near 1.1515. A close below 1.1515 might accelerate the decline. In the stated case, the bears could aim for a move to 1.1440.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil prices, the price remained elevated, extended gains, tested $105, and remains in a bullish zone.
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But rising Middle East tensions are still keeping the safe haven demand alive. Crude oil prices rose above $107 after renewed attacks that heightened concerns about more supply disruptions. This presents mixed picture for precious metals. The war can support gold, but rising oil prices can keep inflation high and keep the Fed hawkish. Silver is under similar pressure and may respond even more forcefully as it also relies on industrial demand. In my view, the Fed’s decision and guidance will determine whether the gold and silver prices will continue to correct or begin a fresh rebound.
Gold Price Forecast: $4,300 Support Faces Fed Rate Risk XAU/USD Daily Chart: $4,270 Support and $4,530 Resistance The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price failed to break below $4,300 after Friday’s inflation data. The support zone between $4,270 and $4,300 remains the key support and is defined by the 50-day SMA.
A break below $4,270 will likely open the way for much lower levels toward the $4,160 level. But a break above $4,530 will push prices toward the descending trend line at $4,800 that stretches from the January 2026 highs.
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold edged higher on Friday after rebounding from a test of its lowest level since September 2. The main trend is down according to the main swing chart. A trade through $4,282.62 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A move through $4,510.93 will change the main trend to up.
The market is currently trading well below 200-day moving average resistance at $4,538.39, however, close to 50-day moving average support at $4,269.07.
The three-month range is $3,942.10 to $4,697.11. Its retracement zone is $4,319.60 to $4,230.51. On Friday, the market tested this zone with a low at $4,292.11.
The intermediate range is $4,697.11 to $4,282.62. Its retracement zone at $4,489.87 to $4,538.77 stopped a rally at $4,510.93 on September 3.
The minor range is $4,282.62 to $4,510.93. Its midpoint is $4,396.78. On Friday, the move into the retracement zone at $4,319.60 to $4,230.51 triggered an intraday rally to $4,402.63, which was slightly higher than the minor-range midpoint at $4,396.78.
What to Watch The Fed decision next Wednesday is the next major test. The hike is nearly fully priced at 87%. Gold traders are listening for whether Chair Kevin Warsh frames this as a standalone adjustment or signals additional increases.
The Iran-Gulf states meeting in Oman on Monday is the next crude headline. WTI finished above $100 and Brent above $104 heading into the weekend, with Brent gaining more than 9% for the week.
The bias leans bearish with the main trend down on the swing chart. The support zone at $4,319.60 to $4,230.51 held Friday’s selling at $4,292.11 with the 50-day moving average at $4,269.07 sitting inside the zone. A decisive break below the 50-day and the 61.8% at $4,230.51 restarts long liquidation and opens the downside.
The minor midpoint at $4,396.78 is the first level to recover on the upside. Friday’s recovery pushed through it to $4,402.63. Holding above $4,396.78 strengthens the base. Overcoming that level puts $4,489.87 to $4,538.77 and the 200-day at $4,538.39 back in play where the main trend can change on a push through $4,510.93.
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USD/JPY has seen a huge unwind over the past couple of weeks, and we've just found out that a large chunk of that move may have been driven by a significant clear-out of short-yen positioning among speculators, according to the latest data released by the CFTC on Friday.
AUD/USD lost momentum after a 10-week rally as hot US inflation data revived Fed hike expectations. With RBA officials also keeping September tightening risks alive, both sides of the pair face significant event risk this week.
View related analysis:
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AUD/USD Rally Stalls as Fed and RBA Risks Build
The Australian dollar finally faltered on Thursday after a hot US PPI report added to pressure on the Fed to hike, with rising crude oil prices further complicating the inflation outlook.
Rising producer and consumer prices saw markets reprice a 25bp Fed hike this week to an 87% probability. Money markets had swung from hike to no hike following dovish comments from some Fed members, but August’s inflation data — which is yet to fully reflect the rise in crude oil prices — leaves little reason for the Fed not to hike at this stage.
That puts extra focus on the updated FOMC forecasts for clues over the likelihood of a follow-up hike, which Fed funds futures currently price at around 48% for March.
See my recent X posts on US consumer prices and US producer prices.
RBA Hike Concerns Weigh on Australian Sentiment
Concerns over RBA hikes are resurfacing in the latest business sentiment reports for Australia. Business conditions were negative for the first time in six years, according to NAB, while confidence fell to a three-month low of -8, or 13 points below its long-term average of 5.
Westpac also reported that consumers had become more pessimistic, with sentiment dropping 5% as expectations of rate hikes rose alongside concerns about unemployment. This seems unlikely to deter the RBA from hiking, potentially as soon as 29 September.
Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders
RBA Speakers Could Reinforce September Hike Expectations
While the Australian data calendar is quiet, the RBA has plenty of opportunity to reinforce a hawkish message. Monday’s fireside chat could serve as a warm-up for Friday’s testimony before the House of Representatives, where Governor Bullock and several senior officials will appear ahead of the 29 September meeting.
Several major banks have already brought forward their calls for a September hike, while even Westpac has abandoned its previous hold-through-2026 view in favour of a November increase. If officials remain hawkish and avoid pushing back against current pricing, more economists may be forced to bring their calls forward.
From that angle, a meaningful pushback against September hike expectations would now be more surprising than another round of hawkish guidance.
FOMC Projections Take Centre Stage
With markets pricing an 87% chance of a 25bp Fed hike this week, the focus is on the updated forecasts and dot plot, particularly with economists still more cautious than markets about how far tightening goes this year. The 2026–2027 median rate projections will take centre stage, with any upward shift reinforcing expectations that September is not a one-and-done hike.
I’d like to think Warsh will use the press conference to make this clear, but his early track record leaves me less confident that he will. Still, with crude oil above $100 and inflation well above target, the risks around the dots appear more hawkish than at the previous meeting.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar
AUD/USD Correlations
US dollar influence has weakened short term, suggesting AUD/USD is being driven by more than just broad USD moves.
The yuan remains an important positive influence, keeping Chinese market sentiment relevant for AUD/USD traders.
Commodity links remain supportive, with copper and gold providing useful confirmation for Australian dollar moves.
Correlations are shifting across timeframes, so traders should treat them as confirmation rather than standalone AUD/USD signals.
Source: LSEG
AUD/USD Options Point to Near-Term Pullback Risk
A small shooting star formed on the weekly chart, suggesting the 10-week rally is running out of steam around 0.7200. The daily chart shows the momentum shift more clearly, with Wednesday’s reversal following two small doji candles. This has kept 1-week implied volatility slightly above 1-month implied volatility for a second week.
Options traders are also pricing in the potential for a deeper pullback, with risk reversals moving lower. Bearish tail-risk pricing, represented by the 1-week 10-delta risk reversal, is now at its strongest in six weeks. The AU-US 2-year yield spread has also fallen to an eight-day low after forming a bearish divergence ahead of AUD/USD.
I am not looking for an excessively deep pullback in AUD/USD. But after a 10-week rally, with implied volatility perking up, risk reversals moving lower and the yield spread weakening, rallies could be capped and viewed as opportunities for bears over the near term. Note the 0.7120 and 0.7100 support levels, which could entice dip buyers if prices pull back that far.
After a volatile week, the silver price prediction from UBS remains $70 for December and $80 for September 2027. The Silver price recovered to $64.48 an ounce on Friday, clawing back less than a third of Thursday’s losses.
The 1.64% rebound still left XAG/USD down 2.6% over the week, with the metal needing a sustained recovery to reach UBS’s forecasts.
The bank’s silver price forecast starts at $70 in December 2026, rises to $75 in March and June 2027, then reaches $80 that September.
UBS has retained its earlier September projections, with December’s $70 estimate around 8.6% above Friday’s close and September 2027’s $80 target 24% higher.
Image: Gold price in US dollars over the last month Can silver build on Friday’s rebound? Silver prices gained despite US core inflation accelerating to 0.3% month-on-month in August from 0.2% in July.
UBS had already anticipated a rate rise before those figures arrived.
The bank said on 10 September: “Our economists’ base case is that the Fed will raise its policy rate by 25bps. Given current market expectations, the hike itself should have a relatively limited impact.”
Its focus was the accompanying message: “More important will be whether markets interpret the decision and the tone of the subsequent press conference as leaning hawkish or dovish.”
In its currency outlook, UBS added: “In our base case, we do not expect a hawkish hike that would provide broad support for the dollar.”
That leaves room, in our view, for silver to recover even if US rates rise, provided the dollar does not strengthen materially.
The Fed’s 15–16 September meeting will test that reading, with most of Thursday’s silver losses still unrecovered.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
But a 25 basis point increase may already be priced in. Therefore, USD/JPY could decline more sharply if Ueda talks at the next couple of meetings about another hike or if he indicates that rates might be raised beyond 1.75%. A dovish press conference might have the opposite effect and move USD/JPY higher.
On the other hand, the expectation of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has increased by 87% after the US inflation data. If both central banks raise rates by 25 basis points, the interest rate gap would remain broadly unchanged.
This could limit the immediate gains in yen. The move in USD/JPY would then depend mainly on which central bank signals a faster pace of future tightening.
USD/JPY Forecast: 152 Support in Focus After Break Below 159 USD/JPY remains under extreme pressure in the short term after failing at the long-term resistance zone of 160-162. The pair produced a high of 163.98 on July 20 but failed to hold it and dropped sharply. This drop indicates that the pair is moving toward the 150 area in the short term to find the next support.
This support is defined by the ascending channel pattern that stretches from the January 2023 lows. If this support holds and bottom forms around 150, it will likely initiate another rally toward 160-162.
The formation of bottoms in December 2023, September 2024 and April 2025 suggests positive price action in USD/JPY. Therefore, a confirmed break above the 162 level will likely open the way to higher levels, possibly reaching 175.
Higher US interest rates complicate the gold price forecast, but UBS still projects a recovery to $4,600 by December.
UBS's $5,400 gold price forecast for September 2027 implies a gain of around 24% from Friday's close, even though the bank expects two Federal Reserve rate increases this year.
Gold rose 0.75% to $4,347 an ounce on Friday but lost 1.8% over the week.
Image: Gold price vs USD 1-month chart
The US inflation release added to the pressure for tighter policy, with monthly core price growth accelerating to 0.3% in August from 0.2% in July.
"We now expect the Fed to raise rates twice in 2026, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold, which does not generate income," UBS said on 7 September, before the inflation figures arrived.
Its 10 September forecasts put gold at $4,600 in December 2026, followed by $5,000 in March 2027 and $5,200 in June.
Image: Graph showing gold prices over 2026
The demand behind UBS's gold forecast
UBS has retained its longer-term view through the pullback: "We view gold as a strategic portfolio hedge and diversifier, rather than as a tactical expression of the next Fed decision."
"Central bank demand remains robust, supported by reserve diversification and a long-term desire to reduce exposure to US dollar assets," it said.
Private investment strengthened in August too, with $18bn flowing into gold-backed exchange-traded funds and holdings reaching a record 4,189 tonnes, World Gold Council figures show.
Those figures do not yet establish whether ETF buying continued through September's decline.
For UBS, the appeal of protection against inflation and political risks could offset some of the pressure from higher yields.
"The effect of higher real rates and a stronger US dollar may be offset should inflation, geopolitical uncertainty, or concerns about fiscal and monetary credibility persist."
Reaching $5,400 would recover much of this year's lost ground, though it would still leave gold below its $5,594 high.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
EUR/USD has struggled to build on the rebound from the July low, with recent price action reflecting a lack of conviction on either side. This week's ECB rate hike and hawkish guidance did little to resolve the stalemate, leaving the Euro searching for a fresh directional catalyst.
Stronger core inflation favours MUFG’s bearish Euro outlook, with the bank now expecting a September Fed hike and EUR/USD closing below 1.16. The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate closed Friday near 1.1599, down 0.10% on the day, as stronger US core inflation reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate increase.
MUFG's downside scenario points towards 1.14, approximately 1.7% below that close.
Before Friday's inflation release, the bank outlined two possible paths: a Fed hold alongside further ECB tightening could lift EUR/USD towards 1.20, while a September Fed hike could push it towards the bottom of its 1.14-1.18 range.
“The performance of EUR/USD may increasingly hinge on the Fed’s policy response,” MUFG’s Lee Hardman said.
Core inflation strengthens the case for a hike The August CPI release showed core prices rising 0.3% on the month, accelerating from July's 0.2% increase and exceeding the 0.2% consensus.
Headline prices rose 0.4%, with gasoline accounting for more than a third of the increase.
Annual core inflation nevertheless eased to 2.4% from 2.5%, making this a setback in monthly momentum rather than an acceleration across every measure.
Market estimates put the probability of a September hike around 85-90% after the release.
MUFG subsequently changed its own Fed forecast:
“As a result, we now expect the Fed to hike rates by 25bps in September.”
Image: EUR/USD 48-hr chart ECB tightening still offers the Euro support Thursday's ECB decision announced a quarter-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.50%, effective from 16 September, while projecting inflation above target through 2028.
That supported the argument for further European tightening explored in our earlier EUR/USD outlook.
We believe Friday's CPI weakens the case for the Euro to benefit from an ECB tightening cycle while the Fed stands aside.
However, with a US hike already heavily anticipated, its delivery alone may offer limited additional Dollar support.
MUFG's rates strategists acknowledge that markets have already priced in much of the expected tightening and may have gone too far.
A move towards 1.14 therefore remains conditional on how the Fed's decision and guidance change expectations for subsequent meetings.
Euro Prices: This Week USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD +0.13%-0.08%-1.75%+0.24%+0.46%+1.16%+0.79%EUR-0.13% -0.21%-1.87%+0.12%+0.33%+1.03%+0.67%GBP+0.08%+0.21% -1.67%+0.33%+0.54%+1.24%+0.88%JPY+1.78%+1.91%+1.70% +2.03%+2.24%+2.96%+2.58%CAD-0.24%-0.12%-0.33%-1.99% +0.21%+0.91%+0.55%AUD-0.46%-0.33%-0.54%-2.20%-0.21% +0.70%+0.33%NZD-1.15%-1.02%-1.23%-2.87%-0.90%-0.69% -0.36%CHF-0.79%-0.66%-0.87%-2.52%-0.54%-0.33%+0.36% The FX heat map compares how Euro (EUR) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Japanese Yen, where Euro recorded its sharpest decline. Data comparing prices today (12/09/2026 12:07 UTC) and daily close on 05/09/2026.
To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Crédit Agricole now expects RBI hikes from Q4 as expensive oil and weak monsoons threaten inflation, keeping USD/INR near its 96 forecast. The US Dollar to Indian Rupee exchange rate closed Friday near 95.59, leaving Crédit Agricole's second-half forecast of 96 just 0.4% above the market.
USD/INR gained about 1.2% over the week as the Rupee surrendered its early-September recovery.
The bigger change is in Indian interest rates: the bank has abandoned its forecast of no increases through 2026-27.
“We expect RBI to raise its repurchase rate from 5.25% to 5.75% by Q127, with the first hike occurring in Q426.”
Higher oil prices make that shift harder to avoid, according to senior FX strategist David Forrester.
Crude above $100 exceeds the RBI's assumed $80-85 range, while weak monsoon rainfall threatens food supplies and stronger growth increases the risk that higher costs spread through the economy.
The pressure extends the oil-driven reversal in the Rupee we covered earlier this week.
India's importers need Dollars to pay for dearer crude, while a weaker Rupee makes those purchases more expensive in local currency.
Image: USD/INR one-month chart Higher rates may only contain Rupee losses Friday's US inflation release added another complication after Crédit Agricole's note appeared.
Core CPI rose 0.3% in August after July's 0.2%, strengthening the argument for a Fed hike, although annual core inflation eased to 2.4%.
If American rates rise too, an RBI increase may deliver less support through relative returns.
Crédit Agricole nevertheless sees policy support containing the damage:
“The 50bp rate increase combined with ongoing capital inflows from RBI’s ECB and OFCB programmes, plus record-level reserves to help the central bank lean against INR weakness, are expected to offset the drag on the INR from higher oil prices and weaker monsoons. We retain our H226 forecast for USD/INR at 96.00.”
Its longer-run valuation work puts USD/INR between 92.50 and 101.50, centred on 97, depending on how much incoming capital the RBI uses to unwind its forward positions.
That is a valuation range, not a forecast that 101.50 will trade.
Image: US Dollar vs Indian Rupee 2026 chart The one-month data already record a high just above 96, making this a return towards a previously traded level.
Our reading is that the forecast’s harder test lies beyond another touch of 96: whether RBI action can contain further depreciation if expensive oil persists.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
UBS expects further Yuan gains through mid-2027, with strong exports supporting the currency despite low inflation and an unfavourable rate gap. The US Dollar to Chinese Yuan (USD/CNY) exchange rate closed Friday near 6.7083, extending a year in which the pair has fallen more than 4%.
UBS expects that decline to continue, forecasting 6.60 for December 2026 and March 2027, followed by 6.50 in June and September.
Reaching 6.50 would mean another 3.1% fall in USD/CNY, equivalent to approximately 3.2% appreciation in the Yuan's Dollar value.
The forecast also maintains the path discussed in our August analysis of UBS's Yuan outlook, when export conversions and the PBoC's tolerance for gradual appreciation were central to the argument.
Exports support the Yuan despite subdued inflation Fresh Chinese trade figures strengthen the external-demand case.
Exports rose 25% year-on-year in Dollar terms during August, supported by overseas demand for high-tech and AI-related products.
Those receipts provide a potential source of Yuan buying when exporters convert foreign earnings, although the timing and scale of conversions matter.
Domestic prices tell a quieter story.
The National Bureau of Statistics recorded annual consumer inflation of just 0.8% in August, with food prices still 1.4% below a year earlier.
UBS forecasts Chinese growth of 4.5% this year and 4.6% in 2027, alongside average inflation of only 0.6% in both years.
Image: USD to CNY exchange rate 2026 chart The US$/CNY forecast needs more than interest-rate support UBS's Yuan call sits alongside expectations for higher US policy rates by December and a small reduction in China's policy rate by June 2027.
That would leave interest-rate differentials working against the Yuan over much of the forecast horizon.
Our reading is that export-related flows, broader Dollar weakness and continued policy tolerance must carry more of the appreciation argument.
The risk is that Beijing becomes less comfortable with currency strength if it starts squeezing exporters while domestic demand remains subdued.
A move towards 6.60 would keep UBS's year-end forecast on course, but reaching 6.50 requires those supports to endure into 2027.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold fell 1.8% last week and is now down for a third consecutive week, suggesting that momentum continues to fade following the powerful surge we saw in August. On Friday, the precious metal initially fell in reaction to the US CPI data but then rallied sharply from its lows immediately afterwards in a classic “sell the news” reaction, before fading into the close. Ultimately, gold finished Friday’s session 0.7% higher. We maintain a slightly bearish gold outlook amid a challenging macro backdrop, ahead of the FOMC rate decision in the week ahead.
Fed meeting could impact gold outlook
Heading into the week ahead, the technical momentum suggests we could see at least some further moderate losses ahead of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. It is going to be an important policy decision, particularly given the stronger inflation data and recent warnings from Kevin Warsh about the risk of inflation remaining above target for too long.
The key question is whether a rate hike would be a one-and-done move, or whether we could see further increases later this year.
Oil and Treasury yields add pressure
Oil prices have also surged in recent days, although they eased slightly on Friday. Nevertheless, the broader trend remains firmly higher, adding another source of inflationary pressure to the market. If inflation continues to rise, there is little reason for the Fed to rule out further tightening.
Against that backdrop, US Treasury yields have continued to push higher. The 10-year yield came close to the 5% level last week, a psychologically important threshold where we could see some profit-taking. Ultimately, though, the bond market remains under pressure and yields continue to rise.
That is not an ideal macro environment for gold. With real yields and expectations for interest rates moving higher, the precious metal is likely to remain vulnerable, particularly if the US dollar continues to find support.
Key gold support levels
From a technical perspective, the bias therefore remains to the downside. Key resistance around $4,400 held once again on Friday. This level has been tested on a number of occasions in recent days and, so far, continues to cap the upside.
Source: TradingView.com
Gold could return to the $4,100 area in the not-too-distant future, potentially around Wednesday’s Fed decision. A break below that level would expose $4,000, while below there, the June low around $3,942 would come into focus.
There is, however, an alternative scenario. If the US dollar debasement trade returns and XAUUSD manage to break decisively above $4,400, the next target would be around $4,500. The 200-day moving average currently comes in at around $4,538, followed by resistance near $4,600.
Gold outlook: Bearish bias remains
For now, though, both the macro and technical backdrop remain bearish for gold. Unless we see a renewed shift towards the dollar debasement trade, I would expect further downside pressure on the precious metal in the near term.
