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The AUD/USD pair attracts some follow-through selling following the previous day's failure to find acceptance above the 0.7000 psychological mark and weakens to the 0.6970 area during the Asian session on Tuesday. Spot prices move little in reaction to Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock’s comments and remain confined in a familiar range held over the past two weeks or so.

The US Dollar (USD) sticks to its bullish undertone as the optimism over a potential US-Iran diplomacy to end a five-month-old conflict fades after Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reported drone attacks on Monday. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and acts as a tailwind for the safe-haven Greenback, exerting some downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting, starting later today.

The recent repeated failures to break through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall suggest that the recovery from the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has run out of steam. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains marginally positive while the MACD line stays above the signal line, hinting that bullish momentum persists even as the neutral Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests only modest directional conviction.

Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the 23.6% Fibo. level before placing fresh bearish bets on the AUD/USD pair and positioning for a retest of the 200-day SMA at 0.6904. This is followed by the 0.6868 Fibonacci anchor, which reinforces a deeper structural floor should a corrective pullback unfold. On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at 0.7024 ahead of the 50% retracement at 0.7073 and then 0.7121 at the 61.8% Fibo. level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD daily chart

Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.01%0.02%0.02%0.36%0.18%0.00%EUR-0.05%-0.03%-0.06%-0.06%0.32%0.15%-0.03%GBP-0.01%0.03%0.00%0.02%0.37%0.19%0.03%JPY-0.02%0.06%0.00%-0.00%0.34%0.17%0.02%CAD-0.02%0.06%-0.02%0.00%0.36%0.16%0.02%AUD-0.36%-0.32%-0.37%-0.34%-0.36%-0.16%-0.34%NZD-0.18%-0.15%-0.19%-0.17%-0.16%0.16%-0.15%CHF-0.01%0.03%-0.03%-0.02%-0.02%0.34%0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Gold prices fell in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 8,010.13 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,077.87 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,435.17 per tola from PHP 94,218.74 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

8,010.13

10 Grams

80,101.70

Tola

93,435.17

Troy Ounce

249,146.50

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 477.45 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 481.37 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,568.87 per tola from AED 5,614.58 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

477.45

10 Grams

4,774.48

Tola

5,568.87

Troy Ounce

14,849.94

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,450.33 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,547.03 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,212.10 per tola from INR 146,346.10 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,450.33

10 Grams

124,498.00

Tola

145,212.10

Troy Ounce

387,248.80

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some follow-through selling after the previous day's failure to find acceptance above $4,100, weakening below the $4,050 level during the Asian session on Tuesday. The downside potential, however, seems limited as the US Dollar (USD) bulls pause ahead of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting. Investors will look for cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path, which will play a key role in driving the USD demand and providing a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Heading into the key central bank event risk, traders pared Fed rate-hike bets amid renewed hopes for US-Iran diplomacy to end a five-month-old conflict, which led to the overnight slump in oil prices and eased inflation fears. In fact, the US paused its bombing campaign against Iran following roughly two weeks of strikes. Moreover, US President Donald Trump said on Monday the US was having good talks with Iran and that there was a chance of a resolution. This raised hopes of pulling the US and Iran back to the negotiating table, and normalizing of Middle East energy flows.

Trump, however,  warned that US strikes would resume if the negotiations failed to deliver. Furthermore, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iraq reported drone attacks on Monday, keeping a lid on the optimism. Adding to this, concerns about disruptions to global energy supplies support oil prices and the safe-haven USD. The spotlight shifted to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia and attacked Saudi oil installations along the coast of the Red Sea. Moreover, traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted.

The fundamental backdrop seems tilted firmly in favor of USD bulls, which backs the case for further downside for Gold. Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive bets and opt to wait for the outcome of the highly-anticipated FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling and acceptance below the $4,000 psychological mark before placing fresh bearish bets on the XAU/USD pair.

XAU/USD daily chart

Gold’s bearish technical setup backs the case for deeper losses; break below $4,000 awaitedAgainst the backdrop of the recent breakdown below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), the range-bound price action since June 19 might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase. Meanwhile, momentum indicators are mixed. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers just below the 50 line near 45, hinting at lacklustre buying conviction, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) turns higher in positive territory. This suggests that any rebounds are still corrective within a broader downside context as long as Gold holds under the long-term average.

Nevertheless, the precious metal looks vulnerable to further slippage unless buyers quickly defend the recent lows around the psychological $4,000 handle. On the topside, the top boundary of the trading range near the $4,200 mark is the key resistance to beat. A daily close above this barrier would be needed to ease the broader bearish bias and open the door to a more sustainable advance to the 200-day SMA at $4,493.65.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies last 7 days. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.34%1.01%0.79%0.32%0.21%1.10%1.05%EUR-0.34%0.64%0.41%-0.05%-0.15%0.75%0.72%GBP-1.01%-0.64%-0.24%-0.66%-0.77%0.16%0.07%JPY-0.79%-0.41%0.24%-0.52%-0.58%0.70%0.33%CAD-0.32%0.05%0.66%0.52%0.00%1.23%0.74%AUD-0.21%0.15%0.77%0.58%-0.01%0.87%0.84%NZD-1.10%-0.75%-0.16%-0.70%-1.23%-0.87%-0.08%CHF-1.05%-0.72%-0.07%-0.33%-0.74%-0.84%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

I am already riding two EURUSD sell entries. Another possible sell opportunity could be forming for traders that are not in yet.

EURUSD Possible Bearish Scenario

Watch for price to tap 4 Hour FVG (Purple) first. Watch for a bearish shift and bearish reversal signs in the FVG zone. Wait for all above to play out first then plan the sell entry, stops and targets with confidence. If price continues higher and breaks above the July 27 2026 high then trade setup is cancelled and if price breaks below the July 27 2026 low without tapping the 4H FVG then trade setup is cancelled.

EURUSD 15 Minute Chart July 27 2026

A trader should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade off one simple strategy. When multiple strategies all line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup. We at EWF never say we are always right. No market service provider can forecast markets with 100% accuracy. Only thing we at EWF 100%, is that we are RIGHT more than we are WRONG.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade.  Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on social media for updates and questions> @AidanFX

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Key Highlights

GBP/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.3550 resistance zone. It traded below a bullish trend line with support at 1.3435 on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin could aim for an upside break if it clears $66,500. USD/JPY seems to be aiming for more gains above 164.00. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound failed to clear 1.3550 and trimmed gains against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started a fresh decline below 1.3500 and 1.3450.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below 1.3400, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There was a drop below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3140 swing low to the 1.3555 high.

Besides, the pair traded below a bullish trend line with support at 1.3435. If the bears remain in action, they could aim for a test of the 76.4% Fib retracement level at 1.3238.

The next major support could be near 1.3220. The main support might be 1.3200. A downside break and close below 1.3200 might send the pair toward 1.3050. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.3000.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.3350. The next major resistance might be 1.3400 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above 1.3400 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3450. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.3550.

Looking at Bitcoin, the price is slowly attempting a recovery wave, and if it settles above $66,500, there could be more gains.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

US Housing Price Index for May 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus -0.1% previous. US ADP Employment Change 4-week Average – Forecast 12K, versus 16.5K previous. US Wholesale Inventories for June 2026 (preliminary) – Forecast +0.2%, versus +0.1% previous.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) loses ground after registering gains in the previous day, trading around $4,050 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The price of the non-yielding yellow metal may regain ground following remarks from US President Donald Trump indicating that the US is engaged in "good talks" with Iran to resolve the Middle East conflict. The prospect of de-escalation sent oil prices lower, easing market concerns over rising inflation and further interest rate hikes.

However, Trump also cautioned that the US remains prepared to resume military strikes if negotiations collapse. The statement comes after the US suspended attacks late Friday following nearly two weeks of hostilities, with Tehran simultaneously halting retaliatory strikes against US bases in neighboring countries.

Meanwhile, traders are turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision this week, where central bank officials are widely expected to keep interest rates on hold. While lingering inflationary pressures have led a minority of traders to speculate on an immediate rate increase, the prevailing consensus suggests that any potential hike would likely be deferred until September.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The US dollar shrugged off crude oil's sharp decline following reports of renewed US-Iran negotiations, highlighting underlying demand for the greenback ahead of this week's FOMC meeting. With markets pricing a growing chance of further Fed tightening, attention now turns to Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance and whether DXY and USD/JPY can extend their bullish trends.

Source: LSEG

US Dollar and USD/JPY Stay Supported Ahead of the FOMC Meeting Crude oil prices plunged -11.3% on Monday after the US announced it had paused its attacks on Iran, allowing room for negotiations. While President Trump has threatened strong military Iran if talks fail, markets are once again looking at it optimistically. However, it is interesting to note that the pullback on the US dollar was minimal at best, falling as little as 0.25% from the week’s open before scraping a 23-high by the day’s close.

While the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at this week's FOMC meeting, markets will pay close attention to Chair Kevin Warsh's comments regarding the latest flare-up in Middle East tensions. While the US and Iran are reportedly in talks and attacks have stalled, this is far from the first time. It also seems highly unlikely that any meaningful agreement will be reached, let alone signed, before the Fed meeting.

That leaves the risk of renewed inflationary pressures intact, along with credible concerns that the Fed could resume hiking interest rates if inflation proves persistent. The US dollar therefore has scope to remain supported heading into this week's interest rate decision, with post-meeting moves likely to be dictated by the perceived hawkishness of Warsh's press conference. We could also see dissenting votes in favour of a rate hike, which would likely add to any bullish reaction in the US dollar.

Fed funds futures currently imply a 55% chance of a hike in September and a 39% chance of another in December. Whether the US dollar extends its lead will likely hinge on whether Warsh validates those expectations.

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis Last week’s bullish expansion rallied from the 10-week EMA and monthly pivot point. This hints that the prior week’s spinning top Doji – which also respected the 10-week EMA as support – could mark an important swing low above the 100 handle. 102 looks within relatively easy reach for bulls unless the Fed surprise with a neutral stance and the US and Iran finally sign a peace deal. I am not holding my breath.

But with the weekly RSI (2) trending higher with prices and nowhere near oversold, a break above 102 could also be on the cards in the coming weeks, if Middle East tensions persist and keep inflation expectations elevated.

Bullish initiation Near Cycle Highs Also note that a bullish engulfing candle formed on Monday, with its lower wick hinting at demand around 101. Prices remains above the monthly VWAP, with a break above 101.50 assuming a move to the 12 handle near the monthly R1 pivot.

Something to be mindful of is that volumes are trending lower on the weekly and daily chart. This does not suggest an imminent top, but suggests the bullish move still has its sceptics. That said, Monday’s bullish outside day saw increased volume relative to Friday and Thursday’s range expansion candle was relatively high volume and above average to show bullish initiation just below the cycle high.

Source: ICE, TradingView

The US Dollar's Strongest Market Correlations EUR/USD, GBP/USD and NZD/USD remain the strongest inverse correlations to the US dollar, reinforcing their sensitivity to broad USD moves. USD/JPY, USD/CHF and USD/SEK continue to show strong positive correlations, making them reliable proxies for USD strength. WTI crude has re-established a strong positive correlation with the US dollar, while gold's inverse relationship has weakened significantly over the past month. AUD/USD remains the outlier, with correlations close to neutral, suggesting domestic factors and China-related themes are outweighing broad USD flows.

Source: LSEG

USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen The bullish trend on USD/JPY remains firm, and only held back by market participants who seem wary of another intervention from the MOF. Though the MOF appear to have thrown the towel in for now, conceding that they’re currently swimming against the tide of potential Fed hikes, Middle East headlines and inflationary pressures. And that could leave USD/JPY with the potential for a breakout above 164.

Traders may also want to be wary of the bearish divergence on the daily RSI within the overbought zone, but that doesn’t mean it cannot at least try for a breakout over the near term given the bullish pinbar on the daily and potential bull flag on the 4-hour chart.

Note that Monday’s low respected the weekly pivot point and the weekly R1 sits just below 164.50, a potential upside target for bulls.

Source: ICE, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

Chinese gold imports rose to a two-year high in June as lower prices sparked a resurgence in demand.

According to the latest customs data, China imported 173 tonnes of gold last month, the highest monthly total since March 2024. That follows gold imports of 151 tonnes in May and 157 tonnes in April.

China ranks as the world’s largest gold market.

The international gold price dipped by 7 percent in H1. The price was down even more – 10 percent – in renminbi terms, reflecting yuan strength.

Jinrui Futures Company analyst Zijie Wu told Bloomberg investors buying the price dip were “an important driver of recent demand.” He also noted that Chinese banks were motivated to use up import quotas and stock up on bullion.

"Commercial banks need to build up their inventories to provide the physical backing for retail bullion sales and gold accumulation plans, as well as preserving some safety reserve for when demand spikes."

A new import licensing regime went into effect June 1, incentivizing importers to exhaust existing quotas.

There has also been a persistent domestic premium for gold in China. That means it’s cheaper for banks and jewelry producers to source gold from the international market.

A tug of war in Chinese Gold demandChinese gold demand has been bifurcated, with resilient investor buying and a struggling jewelry sector.

Wholesale gold demand rebounded in June, with gold withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) rising 36 percent month-on-month to 87 tonnes.

According to the World Gold Council, the month-on-month recovery was primarily driven by opportunistic restocking across the supply chain as the gold price fell, along with healthy coin and bar investment.

However, there is ongoing weakness in the gold jewelry sector, creating headwinds for overall Chinese gold demand.

Through the first half of 2026, wholesalers withdrew 598 tonnes of gold from the SGE. That was down 12 percent year-on-year and 27 percent below the 10-year average. According to the World Gold Council, “While bullion demand remained robust, sustained weakness in jewelry consumption made manufacturers and retailers cautious about replenishing, weighing on overall wholesale gold demand.”

Chinese investors tend to favor physical bullion; however, there has been growing interest in gold ETFs over the last few years.

Despite a large outflow of gold in June, Chinese ETFs added 29 tonnes of metal in H1, the second-strongest start to a year on record. Total assets under management (AUM) rose slightly by 1 percent.

The World Gold Council called Chinese ETF demand “robust amid growing geopolitical and economic uncertainties.”

“Institutional investor participation in Chinese gold ETFs has also risen, supporting demand for these products.”

Total AUM by Chinese ETFs stood at 277 tonnes valued at ¥243 billion ($36 billion) at the end of June.

ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.

Looking ahead, there is potential for more demand resilience with the gold price being lower. It could boost the jewelry market.

To receive free commentary and analysis on the gold and silver markets, click here to be added to the Money Metals news service.

Goldman Sachs has picked up on the fact that China is expanding its gold reserves far faster than the official data indicates.

This probably comes as a surprise if you only follow mainstream financial news. Goldman is one of the few major financial actors to report on this phenomenon, but we've known about it for a long time. 

In a recent note, Goldman analysts estimated that China bought more than 48 tonnes of gold in May via the London over-the-counter (OTC) market. The People’s Bank of China only reported a 10-tonne increase to its gold reserves.

In other words, it appears the Chinese increased their gold reserves by 4.8 times the officially reported amount in May.

Based on official numbers, the Chinese central bank added 40 tonnes of gold to its holdings in 2026. This includes a 15-tonne increase in June, the largest official monthly purchase in over two years.

Goldman applied a more conservative 2.0 times multiplier and estimated the Chinese have accumulated closer to 80 tonnes of gold so far this year. If we use the 4.8 times multiplier extrapolated from the May data, Chinese gold reserves have grown by 192 tonnes.

Based on Goldman’s nowcast tool, China bought 67 tonnes of gold per month on a three-month seasonally adjusted average through May.

Faster than advertised expansion of Chinese Gold reserves no surpriseIt may seem surprising that China is accumulating far more gold than they publicly admit, but it shouldn’t be. People who are paying attention have known this for a long time.

Last year, Money Metals’ researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs parsed the data and determined that the Chinese central bank covertly bought 570 tonnes of gold in 2024. The People's Bank of China only reported a 41-tonne increase in its gold reserves that year.

Nieuwenhuijs’s numbers dovetail with Goldman’s.

“Since the Ukraine war began, data show, China’s central bank has been buying roughly five times more gold than what it discloses to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).”

His analysis of formal and informal sources indicated that at the time, the People’s Bank of China was sitting on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold – more than TWICE what the Chinese publicly admit.

The mainstream media has all but ignored this story for years. However, it is starting to see the light of day. Last November, the Financial Times of London reported on the secret expansion of its gold reserves.

“China’s unreported gold purchases could be more than 10 times its official figures as it quietly tries to diversify away from the United States dollar, say analysts, highlighting the increasingly opaque sources of demand behind bullion’s record-breaking rally.”

Now Goldman has joined the party.

However, this secretive Chinese gold accumulation dates back much further than the last three or four years. Analyst Jim Rickards speculated that Chinese gold reserves were far larger than reported in this article published more than a decade ago.

“In mid-2015, China suddenly announced that its gold reserves had increased by 604 tonnes. The total rose from 1,054 tonnes to 1,658 tonnes. Since then, China has updated its gold reserve position monthly (in keeping with IMF criteria). All of these figures are misleading because China keeps several thousand tonnes of gold 'off the books' in a separate entity called the State Administration for Foreign Exchange (SAFE). Small amounts are transferred from SAFE to PBOC monthly, and that becomes the basis for the official reserve reports.”

Goldman noted that Chinese gold buying is part of a broader trend of central banks globally expanding reserves. Investing Live summed up the Goldman position.

 “Goldman continues to frame elevated central bank accumulation as a multi-year structural trend tied to reserve diversification away from dollar assets, anchoring its $4,900 per troy ounce end-2026 price forecast. With private portfolio allocations to gold still low, the bank sees room for demand to broaden beyond central banks to private investors if geopolitical risks continue to build, keeping the medium-term price skew to the upside.”

Goldman analysts said they expect central bank gold accumulation to provide a price floor for the yellow metal, even as gold continues to face downward price pressure due to a hawkish Federal Reserve.

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The USD/CHF extends its advance for the sixth straight trading session, up 0.11%, as the Greenback holds firm against a basket of six currencies, the US Dollar Index (DXY). At the time of writing, the pair trades at 0.8190, with buyers targeting 0.8200.

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe Swiss Franc is set to continue to weaken, both technically and fundamentally. Bloomberg, citing sources, reported that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to keep rates near zero until the end of 2027.

Given the backdrop, the USD/CHF path of least resistance is upwards, and it will face key resistance levels at 0.8200, followed by the June 19, 2025, peak at 0.8215. A breach of the latter will expose the June 4, 2025, peak at 0.8250, followed by the 0.8300 milestone.

Conversely, if sellers push USD/CHF below 0.8150, it could exacerbate a move lower. The first-floor level would be 0.8100. A decisive break exposes the July 15 cycle low of 0.8034, ahead of the 50/day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8012.

USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily

USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%0.28%-0.07%0.23%-0.09%0.25%0.11%EUR-0.00%0.23%-0.07%0.20%-0.12%0.26%0.09%GBP-0.28%-0.23%-0.30%-0.03%-0.34%-0.01%-0.13%JPY0.07%0.07%0.30%0.25%-0.04%0.30%0.18%CAD-0.23%-0.20%0.03%-0.25%-0.30%0.04%-0.10%AUD0.09%0.12%0.34%0.04%0.30%0.38%0.20%NZD-0.25%-0.26%0.00%-0.30%-0.04%-0.38%-0.16%CHF-0.11%-0.09%0.13%-0.18%0.10%-0.20%0.16% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).

Gold price registers gains of 0.58% as Washington pauses attacks on Tehran, while US President Donald Trump opened the door for a resumption in negotiations. This, along with falling US Treasury yields, is a tailwind for Bullion prices with XAU/USD approaching $4,070.

XAU/USD holds gains on lower Treasury yields, Iran de-escalation hopesSentiment has improved during the day as news that a Chinese state-backed firm is producing chipmaking machines pushed US equities lower. In the precious metals segment, the yellow metal clings to gains, though XAU/USD is nearly back to the $4,050 area, which could open the door for further downside.

Geopolitics continued to play a role in the financial markets. Over the weekend, the White House paused attacks, adding to the market's positive mood. Also, US President Donald Trump said that Iran wants to meet, and that they’re meeting and added that “there’s a chance we can make a deal with Iran.”

Data in the US revealed that Durable Goods Orders in June improved but fell short of estimates. Nevertheless, traders' eyes are on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by a busy economic docket on Thursday.

Money markets had priced in a 60% chance that the US central bank would keep rates unchanged and a slim 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, according to Prime Terminal data.

On Thursday, the US schedule will feature the release of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter, the final print of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, and Initial Jobless Claims data.

In the meantime, Bullion prices recovered as US Treasury yields are edging lower. The US 10-year T-note falls 3.5 basis points (bps) to 4.645%. As of writing, the Greenback turned green as depicted by the measure of a basket of six currencies against the American currency, aka the US Dollar Index (DXY).

Oil prices fell 6% to hit a one-week low after the US and Iran paused strikes over the weekend following two weeks of attacks, raising hopes of a diplomatic solution that would de-escalate the conflict and allow shipping to resume in the Strait of Hormuz.

In June, China's net Gold imports through Hong Kong more than doubled from the same month last year but were down by over 5% from May, according to data from Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department released on Monday.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold trades sideways despite posting gainsGold’s price action projects that some consolidation lies ahead. Momentum, as measured by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), shows some mixed signs. The index remains bearish but closing into the 50 neutral level, which, once pierced, turns bullish.

For a bullish resumption, the XAU/USD must clear the $4,100 mark. Above lies the July 22 daily high at $4,165, which, once surpassed, clears the way toward the July 6 daily peak at $4,202. A breach of the latter exposes the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,221.

On the downside, the first key support is the daily low of July 24 at $4,022. Beneath are the psychological $4,000 mark, followed by the June 17 daily low of $3,959.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver Holds Its Bid but Buyers Are Waiting on Warsh Silver caught an early bid Monday after crude oil dropped sharply on the third consecutive night without U.S.-Iran strikes. Treasury yields followed oil lower and that was enough to stop the selling pressure that had been running against the metal for weeks. The gain held through the mid-session but the follow-through never came. The FOMC on Wednesday has both sides frozen with buyers unwilling to chase and sellers without a fresh reason to press while crude is falling. The session went quiet after the opening move and has stayed that way.

At 16:59 GMT, Spot Silver is trading $58.64, up $0.44 or +0.75%.

The gain is real but it tells you more about what stopped than what started. The selling pressure eased. The buying conviction did not arrive.

Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is edging higher at the mid-session after a successful test of a short-term retracement zone at $57.85 to $57.13. The move turned the July 23 low at $57.06 into a new minor bottom. The key to sustaining the rally will be a breakout over the last minor top at $60.94. That move will likely lead to increased momentum, putting both the main swing top at $63.28 and the 50-day moving average at $65.07 on the radar.

On the downside, a failure to shift momentum to the upside will signal the presence of sellers. Taking out $57.06 will mean the selling pressure is getting stronger. This could lead to a near-term test of the last main bottom at $54.77. If this level is taken out with conviction then look for the selling to possibly extend into $46.48.

Oil Break Removed the Pressure but Did Not Replace It Daily September Brent Crude Oil Futures WTI broke toward $82 and Brent dropped away from the $100 area after Iran said it would halt attacks as long as the United States does the same. Washington paused its campaign after concerns over available targets and military supplies. The 10-year yield moved back toward 4.65% and the dollar stopped climbing. Silver had been dealing with rising crude, rising yields and a firmer dollar all at once last week and Monday took all three off the table for the session.

That was enough to bring in early buyers but not enough to keep them pressing. The Iran pause is conditional and the Strait of Hormuz has not reopened to normal conditions. The Red Sea remains a problem for tanker traffic and the same shipping risks that drove crude above $100 last week are still in the background. One headline puts the oil premium right back into the market and the inflation trade comes with it.

The session went quiet after the opening move because nobody is willing to chase lower oil until they see whether the pause survives more than a weekend. Silver is holding above the early lows and that is constructive but the market is clearly in wait mode heading into Wednesday.

Wednesday’s Statement Sets the Direction for the Week A hold is the most likely outcome but Warsh’s press conference is where silver’s week gets decided. He has been clear about prioritizing price stability since taking the chair and the bond market has already priced a meaningful chance of a July hike with September odds heavily skewed toward tightening. Tougher language on energy costs and inflation in the statement keeps yields and the dollar pointed higher and silver absorbs the hit from both sides.

A hold without any escalation in the inflation message gives Monday’s buyers room to stay and opens the door for silver to build on the early gain through the second half of the week. Silver’s industrial demand side makes the rate risk sharper because higher borrowing costs weigh on manufacturing activity and fabrication demand at the same time higher yields pressure the investment bid. The direction the Fed sets Wednesday determines which side of that trade is in control.

Thursday’s GDP and PCE data at 12:30 GMT either confirm or push back against whatever the market takes from Warsh. A firm GDP number and hot core PCE after a hawkish Wednesday locks the rate pressure in for the rest of the week. A softer reading on either one gives Treasury buyers a reason to stay involved and helps silver defend its ground heading into the close on Friday.

What to Watch Silver is up because oil and yields eased. It stopped moving because Wednesday is next. The market needs the Iran pause to hold, crude to stay lower and Warsh to pass without adding to the inflation story already priced into the bond market. If all three line up, buyers have room to push silver higher after the FOMC. If any one fails, Monday’s gain becomes another short-lived break from the broader rate pressure that has been controlling this market since February.

The technical picture improved Monday with a successful test of support and a new minor bottom in place. The breakout level above is clear and a move through it opens the path toward the swing top and the 50-day average. Failure to hold support sends the market back toward the main bottom and a break there opens a much deeper decline. Wednesday forces the resolution in both directions.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Let me walk you through four days, in order, because the sequence matters more than any single piece of it.

On Thursday I wrote that crude oil had rallied almost without a break for three weeks and had run into a strong resistance area built from the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracements, the June highs, and the declining resistance line. I noted the small breakout above that line and said that given the volatility, it could be invalidated any minute. Then I added the part that matters now: the fundamental situation fully supports the rally, but still, corrections happen anyway.

On Friday, the breakout was invalidated. Crude opened at $92.50, reached $92.81, and fell back under $90. It did that on a day when Iran rejected a ceasefire proposal, American strikes ran into a twelfth consecutive night, Trump told Axios he was considering a massive attack bigger than anything in the war so far, and Brent had traded above $100 for the first time since May. I wrote that afternoon that the chart had beaten the news.

Late on Friday, after the close, the Pentagon suspended the bombing campaign. Trump ordered the military not to carry out strikes that had already been approved.

Over the weekend there were no American attacks at all. Iran said it would halt its own strikes as long as the pause held. Oman shuttled technical talks on the Strait in and out of Tehran, and a deal began taking shape around Iranian-run vessel transit with fewer restrictions on shipping.

This morning, crude collapsed, down roughly 7% in West Texas Intermediate, with Brent falling further still.

Technical resistance outruns geopoliticsNow sit with what that sequence means. When I wrote about that resistance area on Thursday, I had no idea the bombing campaign was about to stop. Nobody outside a very small circle in Washington did. The decision had not been (officially) made. Every fundamental input available to me argued for higher oil prices, and I said so in the same paragraph where I flagged the level. The chart marked the end of the rally before the reason for it (officially) existed.

This is the part of technical analysis that I find remarkable even after decades of it, and I want to be careful about how I describe it, because there is nothing mystical here. A price chart is a record of what everyone did, including the people who sit closest to the information. Resistance is not a magic number. It is a price where sellers who have already made up their minds are waiting, and some of those sellers know things the rest of us read about later. When a rally runs three weeks without a pause and arrives at a level where several forms of resistance overlap, the buying that carried it there has to be replaced by fresh buying at worse prices. Often it is not. The market turns, and then the news catches up and gets the credit.

The practical lesson is the one I keep coming back to. If you wait for the fundamental picture to confirm a turn, you are late, because the fundamental picture is at its most convincing precisely when the move is finished. On Thursday, the case for higher oil had never looked stronger. That was the moment the chart said the rally was done.

To clarify, in the case of long-term investments, it doesn’t matter that much if one is a bit early or a bit late, as the price moves around turning points are not that significant compared to the big price moves. However, the more one zooms in, the more it matters.

Gold fails to collect the peace dividendWhich brings me to gold, and to a number that deserves more attention than it will get.

Everything that has pressed on the precious metals for a month has reversed this morning. Oil is collapsing. The inflation impulse that pushed the odds of a September rate hike from roughly half to above 80% in a single week is unwinding in a single session. Rate-hike expectations are being pulled back ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision. The dollar is easing. This is my own mechanism running in reverse at full force, and it is unambiguously favorable for gold.

Gold is up less than one percent today.

Compare it with the mirror image. On the eighth of July, crude rose 6.79% on the American strikes, and gold fell 2.18% that day. Today crude has fallen by almost exactly the same amount, in the opposite direction, and gold's gain is a small fraction of that decline. Same driver, same magnitude, opposite sign, and the response is a shadow of what it was.

That asymmetry is the signature of a (gold) market in a downtrend. It reacts to bad news immediately and completely, and to good news slowly and partially. I described this pattern in the middle of the month when two soft inflation prints bought gold about twenty dollars, and silver went to a new low anyway. Today gives the cleanest measurement of it yet, because the input is the same size in both directions and the output is not.

Look at what the equity market did with the same news. Dow futures rose about 550 points, the S&P added around 1%, and the Nasdaq did better than that. Stocks took the peace dividend with both hands. Gold barely showed up to collect it.

In case of the USD Index, it seems that we’re almost there. I mean, we’ve got a weekly close above the flag, and today will – likely – be the third day above it. There’s one thing that makes me think that we’ll still get another small move down.

That’s the USD’s tendency to reverse its course close to the turn of the month, and what tends to happen beforehand if the preceding move was a rally. I marked those cases with thick, dashed lines. We saw at least a few days of declines, not just a one-day move lower. This suggests that we need a day or a few days at the current or lower price levels before the move is over.

The month ends with this week, so the above would perfectly fit the scenario in which we see additional few days of the moves. This would give precious metals and mining stocks enough time to reach their target areas given the current pace.

Also, please note that the USD Index topped right when the support and resistance lines crossed. This technique worked once again.

One caution, because I do not want you reading more into this pause than is in it. Nothing has changed on the water. Iran's negotiating office still says the Strait is closed, the Revolutionary Guard says its navy turned back four vessels in the past day, and one tanker crossed Hormuz on the twenty-fourth of July against fifty on the same date a year ago. The Saudi front is escalating rather than calming, with Houthi attacks setting Aramco refineries alight. And the bombing stopped not because of a breakthrough but because Trump's advisers warned that the military was running short of viable targets and that interceptor stocks were being drawn down toward nothing. Oil has fallen 7% and more on a bombing pause and a negotiation, without a single additional barrel moving. If the talks stall or one tanker is hit, that repricing reverses overnight.

The Federal Reserve concludes on Wednesday, with a hold still the base case, so the language will matter more than the decision. This could be the trigger for the reversals.

I called the top in oil from a chart while every headline in the world (or at least most of them) argued the other way, and the reason arrived four days later. That is worth remembering the next time someone tells you the fundamental factors are too strong for a market to fall. And it is worth remembering this morning, when the fundamentals finally turned in gold's favor, and gold could barely lift itself off the floor.

XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,082A pause in Middle East tit-for-tat attacks pushed Oil prices lower.The macroeconomic calendar features central banks’ decisions this week. XAU/USD is neutral in the near term, still struggling to run past $4,100. Spot Gold gapped higher at the beginning of the new week, as a pause in Middle East hostilities underpinned the mood and weighed on the US Dollar (USD). The XAU/USD pair traded as high as $4,116.20 during Asian trading hours, following a pause in strikes between Iran and the United States (US).

News brought relief, despite traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining restrained, and what’s next in war developments remains a mystery. Neither the US nor Iran committed to a longer pause or even talks. Still, a sharp decline in Oil prices weighed on USD demand and helped Gold advance. The precious metal retreated from its high but holds on to weekly gains, hovering around $4,080 in the American afternoon.

Data-wise, the US published June Durable Goods Orders, which were up 0.3% in the month, missing the expected 1.6% advance although better than the previous -4%. Beyond war headlines, the macroeconomic calendar features some key figures this week, including the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Also, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday, while the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB), and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will also unveil their monetary policy decisions.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD trades with a neutral stance. The metal is attempting to stabilize with a slight constructive bias as it holds above both the 20-period and 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which suggest underlying demand around $4,078 and $4,074, respectively. However, the broader uptrend looks constrained while price remains below the 200-period SMA at $4,109.90, which caps the topside and keeps gold in a consolidation phase. Momentum is mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovering just above the neutral 50 mark and the 14-period Momentum indicator ticking north around its midline, not enough to support additional gains ahead.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD holds just above the 20-day (SMA at $4,071.88, but remains well below the 100- and 200-day SMAs clustered between roughly $4,470 and $4,494, keeping the broader bias capped to the downside. The RSI indicator sits near 48, hinting at neutral strength after the recent pullback, while the 14-day Momentum indicator remains slightly negative, suggesting that recovery attempts lack strong follow-through for now.

On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-period SMA at $4,109.90, followed by the intraday high. A sustained break above this last barrier would be needed to reopen a more decisive bullish phase. On the downside, initial support is seen at a congestion of moving averages around $4,070, followed by the $4,050 price zone. Below the latter, the path clears towards $4,000.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

U.S. Dollar Is Losing Some Ground As Durable Goods Orders Miss Estimates

DXY 270726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing some ground as traders react to the Durable Goods Orders report. The report indicated that Durable Goods Orders increased by +0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of +2.5%.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index report for July. The report showed that Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index improved from 0.0 in June to +1.3 in July, compared to analyst consensus of -1.

In case U.S. Dollar Index pulls back below the support at 101.15 – 101.30, it will head towards the 50 MA at 101.02. A move below the 50 MA will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the next support level at 100.50 – 100.65.

EUR/USD Gains Ground As Ifo Business Climate Exceeds Expectations EUR/USD 270726 4h Chart EUR/USD gained some ground as traders focused on the better-than-expected Ifo Business Climate report from Germany. The report indicated that Business Climate improved from 85.7 (revised from 85.6) in June to 86.6 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 86.

In case EUR/USD settles above the 1.1400 level, it will get to the test of the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 1.1420 – 1.1435 range. On the support side, EUR/USD needs to settle below the 1.1350 level to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, EUR/USD will head towards the next support at 1.1270 – 1.1285.

GBP/USD Tests The 1.3300 Level GBP/USD 270726 4h Chart GBP/USD is losing ground despite the strong sell-off in the oil markets. Oil prices are down by -9% amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East.

A move below the 1.3300 level will push GBP/USD towards the support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 1.3335 – 1.3350 will open the way to the test of the 50 MA at 1.3406. If GBP/USD climbs above the 50 MA, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.3450 – 1.3465.

USD/CAD Attempts To Settle Above 1.4100

USD/CAD 270726 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving higher despite rising precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.

The nearest resistance level for USD/CAD is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140 range. A move above the 1.4140 level will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance level at 1.4235 – 1.4250.

USD/JPY Is Stuck Below The 164.00 Level USD/JPY 270726 4h Chart USD/JPY continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 163.50 – 164.00 despite falling Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries pulled back towards 4.30%, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.65%. Bond traders reacted to the sell-off in the oil markets.

It should be noted that forex traders remain focused on longer-term Fed policy outlook. The market expects that Fed will start a rate hike cycle to fight inflation, while the Bank of Japan would be forced to stay dovish due to the weakness of the Japanese economy.

If USD/JPY settles above the 164.00 level, it will gain additional upside momentum and move towards the 165.00 level. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to intervene to provide support to the Japanese currency.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

In the case of the USD Index, it seems that we’re almost there. I mean, we’ve got a weekly close above the flag, and today will – likely – be the third day above it. There’s one thing that makes me think that we’ll still get another small move down.

That’s the USD’s tendency to reverse its course close to the turn of the month, and what tends to happen beforehand if the preceding move was a rally. I marked those cases with thick, dashed lines. We saw at least a few days of declines, not just a one-day move lower. This suggests that we need a day or a few days at the current or lower price levels before the move is over.

The month ends this week, so the above would perfectly fit the scenario in which we see a few additional days of the moves. This would give precious metals and mining stocks enough time to reach their target areas, given the current pace.

Also, the USD Index topped right when the support and resistance lines crossed. This technique worked once again.

One caution: nothing has changed on the water. Iran’s negotiating office still says the Strait is closed, the Revolutionary Guard says its navy turned back four vessels in the past day, and one tanker crossed Hormuz on the twenty-fourth of July against fifty on the same date a year ago.

The Saudi front is escalating rather than calming, with Houthi attacks setting Aramco refineries alight. And the bombing stopped not because of a breakthrough but because Trump’s advisers warned that the military was running short of viable targets and that interceptor stocks were being drawn down toward nothing. Oil has fallen 7% and more on a bombing pause and a negotiation, without a single additional barrel moving. If the talks stall or one tanker is hit, that repricing reverses overnight.

The Federal Reserve concludes on Wednesday, with a hold still the base case, so the language will matter more than the decision. This could be the trigger for the reversals.

I called the top in oil from a chart while every headline in the world (or at least most of them) argued the other way, and the reason arrived four days later. That is worth remembering the next time someone says that the fundamental factors are too strong for a market to fall. And it is worth remembering this morning, when the fundamentals finally turned in gold’s favor, and gold could barely lift itself off the floor.

If you’re not ready to subscribe yet, I encourage you to sign up for my free gold newsletter today.
Thank you.

Sincerely,
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA

USD/CAD edges higher on Monday, paring earlier losses as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds after opening the week with a bearish gap. The Greenback initially weakened as a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.4114 after bouncing from an intraday low of 1.4070.

Oil prices have erased most of last week’s gains in response to the pause, weighing on the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $82.70 per barrel after hitting an intraday low of $81.28, but is still down more than 7% on the day.

Despite Monday’s decline, Oil prices remain elevated. However, the Loonie has received only limited support from higher Oil prices since the US-Iran war began, as USD/CAD remains driven mainly by US Dollar flows and monetary policy expectations amid heightened energy-driven inflation risks.

Markets see the Federal Reserve (Fed) as more likely to raise interest rates than the Bank of Canada (BoC). Against this backdrop, the near-term outlook for USD/CAD remains tilted to the upside, with technical indicators also pointing to easing selling pressure following the pullback from June’s high near 1.4250.

Technical analysis

On the daily chart, USD/CAD holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 1.4030 and 1.3883, respectively.

The pair is testing nearby horizontal resistance at 1.4120, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 54 suggests neutral-to-firm momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator, still slightly negative but improving, hints at waning downside pressure.

A clear break above 1.4120 could open the door toward the June high near 1.4250. On the downside, the 50-day SMA near 1.4030 closely aligns with the psychological 1.4000 mark, making this area an important support zone. The 100-day SMA at 1.3883 would provide deeper support if selling pressure picks up.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.03%0.18%-0.08%0.15%-0.16%0.12%0.06%EUR0.03%0.16%-0.07%0.15%-0.16%0.15%0.07%GBP-0.18%-0.16%-0.24%-0.00%-0.32%-0.05%-0.09%JPY0.08%0.07%0.24%0.20%-0.09%0.19%0.15%CAD-0.15%-0.15%0.00%-0.20%-0.29%-0.02%-0.07%AUD0.16%0.16%0.32%0.09%0.29%0.31%0.22%NZD-0.12%-0.15%0.05%-0.19%0.02%-0.31%-0.08%CHF-0.06%-0.07%0.09%-0.15%0.07%-0.22%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD reverses its early gains on Monday and moves toward filling the bullish gap at the weekly open. The pair initially rose after a temporary pause in attacks between the United States (US) and Iran improved risk sentiment, sent Oil prices sharply lower and weighed on the US Dollar (USD).

At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1373, retreating from an intraday high of 1.1418.

The initial optimism proved short-lived as US officials stressed that military action against Iran had not been ruled out. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said the Strait of Hormuz remained closed and added that there were currently no direct talks with the United States.

The lack of concrete negotiations keeps geopolitical risks alive, limiting the downside in both the US Dollar and Oil prices.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades near 101.46, recovering from an intraday low of 101.12. Meanwhile, softer-than-expected US Durable Goods Orders did little to stop the broad recovery in the US Dollar.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades around $83.20 per barrel after rebounding from an intraday low of $81.28, although it is still down more than 6% on the day. Elevated energy prices keep inflation risks in focus and reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.

The Fed announces its interest-rate decision on Wednesday. The central bank is widely expected to leave rates unchanged, although traders still price in a 33% chance of a hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The probability of an increase in September stands near 79%.

Economists at DBS Group Research note that “the Fed faces a tough call: sticky inflation argues for hikes, but soft demand, weak investment, muted wage growth, and heavy debt issuance support holding rates steady for now.”

Across the Atlantic, the European Central Bank (ECB) left interest rates unchanged last week and reiterated that future policy decisions would depend on incoming data, the inflation outlook and the risks surrounding it. Traders look ahead to the preliminary Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July, due on Friday.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad notes that Eurozone leading indicators, including Germany’s IFO, Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and ZEW, point to improving activity. With inflation still above target, Haddad says the data reinforce the case for the European Central Bank (ECB) to resume raising rates in September, but argues that already-priced tightening and nearby technical resistance may limit further Euro upside.

Eurozone data support cautious Euro gains"Leading indicators point to a recovery in Eurozone economic activity. Germany’s IFO business climate index improved to 86.6 in July vs. 85.7 in June entirely driven by expectations. That echoes the increases seen in the Eurozone July PMI and ZEW index."

"Bottom line, a recovery in Eurozone economic activity and above target inflation reinforces the case for the ECB to resume raising rates in September."

"That’s unlikely to offer EUR much upside traction as the swaps curve already price in 90% odds of a 25bps rate hike at the September 10 meeting."

"The next key resistance for EUR/USD is at 1.1483, the July 15 high, while support is at 1.1335, the June 24 low."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold Talking Points: As Treasury rates threaten a breakout to fresh highs Kevin Warsh has the unenviable task of trying to represent Fed independence while not upsetting President Trump like his predecessor Jerome Powell. While Trump doesn’t have a vote at the Fed he can make it very uncomfortable for the newly-appointed Fed chair, and he’s been very open with his desire for rate cuts dismissing the fact that the Fed only controls short-term rates and longer-term Treasury rates are at the mercy of the market (and Treasury issuance).

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

This is a big week. Of course, we have the central bank rate decisions from Japan and the US and that’s probably going to be a big focal point. But we also have an abundance of important earnings reports, with a third of the S&P 500 reporting quarterly numbers, and this is the kind of week where quite a bit can get lost in the shuffle.

In this video for StoneX TV I share my opinion, which is something that I think can be construed as a long-term positive for gold and stocks. While Warsh has sounded hawkish thus far, it’s difficult to imagine that he errs on the side of hawkish if equity prices are hanging in the balance. Trump had said during the interview process that a requirement for whomever he nominated would be a willingness to cut rates – but if Warsh came in and just automatically echoed that sentiment long-term bond yields would become unmoored, like the reaction we saw to Fed rate cuts in 2024.

Higher inflation expectations would feed into lower Treasury prices (and higher yields) and this would bring a counteractive response to global markets as higher borrowing costs would act as a drag on the global economy.

So, it makes sense, especially given where inflation prints have been, that Kevin Warsh has sounded hawkish – but he didn’t need to use that ammunition of a dovish lean with stock prices at highs. Now that equities have shown a bit of pullback, and the past couple of inflation prints have moderated, there’s probably less urgency for Warsh to given the appearance of Fed independence.

I’m expecting Warsh to sound less hawkish on Wednesday and this is something that I think can help gold this week, as the $4k level has, so far, held support quite well. I explained that in detail in this week’s forecast and so far this week, buyers are making a move with another test of the $4100 level.

Gold Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

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Euro: Firmer against US Dollar despite slower growth – BNP Paribas

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