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GBPUSD managed to test support 1.3475 while as we see over the chart the uptrend channel support zone still around 1.3400 which still pushing toward another advance toward 1.3565 and 1.3675 Below 1.3400 more drop pressure may join to push for farther drops toward 1.3280 and below SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.3400 1.3565 LEVEL2 1.3280 […]
USDJPY managed to meet target and resistance zone 155.00-20 yesterday Market facing support around 152.00-15 zone while resistance at 155.00-20 which may creat trading zone here Below 152.00 more drop toward 149.40 is likely Above 155.20 more advance may hit the market with resistances at 156.75 and 157.40 SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 152.00-5 155.00-20 LEVEL2 […]
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Gold, silver and the U.S. dollar are testing defining technical levels as crude oil prices hold above $100, U.S. Treasury yields push higher and the risk of a hawkish FOMC decision increases.
The dollar's recent rebound as a result of rising bond yields and energy prices has been a key theme in the markets, which is helping to drive major FX pairs, gold, silver and copper all lower, while also weighing on stock markets. Among the major FX, the euro has been held back further by continued gains in oil prices while a closely-watched German sentiment survey today also weighed on the single currency.
TL;DR: Silver’s $60 floor should hold unless gold breaks first. A structural physical-market deficit gives the $60–60.44 zone real backing, but the most credible path to a break runs through a hawkish Fed SEP, gold losing its $4,230–4,254 support, and the Gold/Silver ratio magnifying the fallout.
Silver Approaches a Defensible Floor Silver’s $60 floor should hold unless gold breaks first. With silver trading in the low $62s, the psychological threshold is reinforced by a technical projection at $60.44. Continued selling could bring that zone into view, but a decisive break probably requires more than ordinary downward drift. The most credible route runs through a hawkish Federal Reserve outcome, higher real yields, and a corresponding breakdown in gold.
The physical market provides structural support for that base case. According to the Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026, the market recorded its fifth consecutive annual deficit in 2025, at 40.3 million ounces, while a wider 46.3 million-ounce deficit is forecast for 2026. Above-ground inventories have fallen by a cumulative 762.1 million ounces since 2021.
Those deficits don’t prevent a short-term decline or guarantee any particular technical level will hold. They do, however, strengthen the downside asymmetry. Mine supply is relatively unresponsive because most silver is produced as a byproduct of gold, copper, and zinc mining. Industrial demand from electronics and solar manufacturing is also unlikely to change abruptly in response to short-term price movements. That gives the $60–60.44 zone more fundamental backing than a purely arbitrary round number.
The Fed Is the Cause, but Gold Is the Trigger Wednesday’s expected rate increase isn’t the central risk. A hike is already priced at roughly 90% across major market venues, making the decision itself largely a confirmation event. The more important question is whether the Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections shows officials expect tightening to continue after September.
The June projections placed the median year-end rate at 3.8%, consistent with approximately one increase during 2026. Nine of the 18 officials submitting projections expected at least one hike. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is expected to withhold his individual projection again, leaving the remaining participation count important when interpreting any change in the median.
A median above the new 3.75–4.00% target range would indicate the committee itself expects another move in October or December. Three officials dissented in favor of tightening in July, up from two in June, keeping the possibility of a higher median firmly in play. The Reuters survey reversal reinforces the change in the market backdrop: 85% of respondents now expect a September hike, while 53% expect at least one further increase by the end of March 2027.
For silver, however, the immediate transmission point isn’t the dot plot by itself. It’s gold’s $4,230–4,254 support zone.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: Already at Its Decision Zone Gold is trading near $4,267, only around $13 above the first important support at $4,254.53. That level represents the 61.8% projection of the decline from $4,697.07 to $4,282.23, projected from $4,510.90. Slightly below it, the 61.8% retracement of the rise from $3,942.43 to $4,697.07 stands at $4,230.70.
This creates a genuine support zone rather than two versions of the same calculation. If a hawkish SEP drives gold decisively through $4,230, the decline would be positioned to accelerate toward the 100% projection at $4,096.06. Silver would then face a direct correlation shock at precisely the point when its own $60 support is coming into reach.
Gold’s four-hour momentum doesn’t yet show an accelerating collapse. RSI stands at 35.87, leaving further downside before oversold conditions emerge, while MACD remains below its signal line without a visibly widening gap. The pattern is therefore one of persistent pressure rather than capitulation. On the upside, the falling 55-period EMA around $4,377 and fixed resistance at $4,402.51 should now be treated as separate barriers rather than a single confluence zone.
The Dollar Index provides a secondary confirmation signal. A decisive break above the 99.79–99.86 resistance zone would complete its double-bottom formation and open the way toward 100.56. A subsequent break above 100.56 would reinforce the case for gold to lose support, although gold doesn’t necessarily have to wait for the Dollar to reach that level. The current pressure may already be arriving directly through Treasury yields and real rates.
Oil Determines How Far the Chain Runs Oil is best understood as a variable within the same Fed-and-yields mechanism, not as an independent silver catalyst. BMO Capital Markets calculated that the one-month rolling correlation between WTI and the US 10-year Treasury yield had climbed to 0.96, its highest since June 2019. Under current conditions, higher oil prices are feeding directly into inflation expectations, rate pricing, and financial conditions.
Further geopolitical escalation, a continued closure of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, or another disruption around the Strait of Hormuz would strengthen the case for additional Fed tightening. That would place more pressure on gold’s support and raise the probability of silver falling through $60.
The relationship can also work in reverse. Genuine de-escalation would reduce energy-driven inflation pressure and allow real yields to ease, reinforcing support for precious metals. The unusually strong oil-yield correlation is based on a relatively short window and could weaken quickly if markets begin emphasizing growth risks rather than inflation risks. Oil therefore determines how forcefully the chain operates, but it can cut in either direction.
The Gold/Silver Ratio Signals Greater Silver Sensitivity The Gold/Silver ratio has broken above its descending channel, rallied to 68.635, and pulled back to test the former upper trendline around 67.641. It’s currently holding above that line near 67.95, while also remaining above its four-hour 55-period EMA around 67.16.
Momentum has stabilized rather than reversed. MACD is marginally above its signal line, while RSI has cooled to 58.27 without falling below 50. The breakout has therefore passed its first retest, although the confirmation isn’t yet decisive.
This ratio doesn’t provide the initial catalyst for silver to break $60. Instead, it describes the likely magnitude of silver’s response if gold loses support. A sustained rise in the ratio would indicate silver is continuing to underperform gold, allowing a moderate gold decline to produce a larger percentage fall in silver.
AI Demand Is Not a Near-Term Breakdown Trigger Concerns about slower AI development don’t currently provide a convincing industrial-demand case for silver to fall below $60. Copper, which has a more direct connection to data-center investment, hasn’t shown a clear demand-driven response to this week’s AI debate. Its outsized decline has instead been linked to the delayed US decision on refined-copper tariffs and the unwinding of a crowded stockpiling trade.
A sustained, multi-quarter reduction in hyperscaler capital expenditure would eventually matter for industrial metals. An AI-sentiment wobble or open letter doesn’t establish such a shift.
There’s an important distinction between AI-related industrial demand and AI-related risk aversion. The former isn’t yet a credible silver catalyst. The latter could matter indirectly if a broader equity selloff generates demand for the Dollar and pushes real yields higher. Even then, the transmission would still run through financial conditions rather than an immediate reassessment of silver consumption.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Silver Silver’s decline from $71.1610 remains in progress on the four-hour chart. The 100% projection of the fall from $71.1610 to $63.2792, measured from $68.3220, lands at $60.4402. Its proximity to the $60 psychological threshold makes $60.00–60.44 the principal near-term support zone.
Four-hour RSI at 37.77 and daily RSI at 43.94 show silver is weakening without reaching a clear technical extreme. Price is also below the daily 55-day EMA near $64.89 and the four-hour 55-period EMA near $65.16, leaving the immediate bias on the downside.
An initial recovery above the recent $63.28 area would suggest selling pressure is stabilizing. Stronger rebound confirmation would require a break through the moving-average cluster between $64.89 and $65.16, followed by resistance near $65.27. Until that happens, a test of $60–60.44 remains possible even if the zone ultimately holds.
A decisive break below $60.00–60.44 would invalidate the near-term-floor thesis. But the chart suggests such a move would most credibly follow a specific sequence: a hawkish SEP lifts real yields, gold breaks $4,230–4,254, and the rising Gold/Silver ratio magnifies silver’s decline.
A Conditional Floor, Not a Guarantee The hierarchy is straightforward. The SEP and gold’s $4,230–4,254 support zone provide the principal mechanism. Oil determines how forcefully that mechanism operates. The Gold/Silver ratio indicates how much silver could underperform if it fires. AI-related industrial-demand concerns aren’t currently strong enough to break the floor independently.
Absent that chain, $60–60.44 remains a reasonable base for silver. It’s not a guarantee the correction has ended. It’s a conditional floor whose failure requires identifiable confirmation—beginning with gold.
Key Takeaways Silver’s fifth consecutive annual physical deficit (40.3M oz in 2025, 46.3M forecast for 2026) gives the $60-60.44 zone genuine structural backing, not just a round-number floor. Wednesday’s Fed hike is already priced at roughly 90%; the real risk to silver is whether the SEP median rises above 3.75-4.00%, signaling more tightening beyond September. Gold sits just $13 above its first key support at $4,254.53, with $4,230.70 as the deeper level; a break there would be the direct transmission point into silver. The WTI-10-year yield correlation has climbed to 0.96, its highest since June 2019, meaning oil now determines how forcefully the Fed-yields-gold-silver chain operates. The Gold/Silver ratio’s breakout above its descending channel suggests silver would underperform disproportionately if gold’s support breaks, though AI-related demand fears aren’t yet a credible standalone trigger.
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USDJPY delivered a textbook Elliott Wave setup, plunging over 700 pips in a powerful downward expansion after completing its corrective recovery structure.
Identifying the Turning Point at 160.00 – 161.00
The chart from 08.18.2026 shows USDJPY completing a three‑wave corrective bounce, labelled wave ((X)), near the 161.00 handle. This counter‑trend recovery from the late‑July low unfolded as a clean (A)‑(B)‑(C) zigzag in ((W)). With the broader sequence favouring the downside, the 164.056 peak stood as the key invalidation level. The structural framework signalled a decisive ‘Turning Down’ move, projecting an aggressive bearish resumption once wave ((X)) concluded against that invalidation point. See below
The Impulsive Drop: 5 Waves Down to 152.50
The subsequent price action confirmed the forecast with remarkable accuracy. As highlighted in the 09.15.2026 chart, USDJPY broke lower from the 160.364 peak, initiating a powerful five‑wave impulse sequence labelled wave (A). The decline cut through multiple support levels as sub‑waves 1 through 5 extended downward. Wave 3 drove the core of the sell‑off, followed by a brief wave 4 pause near 157.00, before wave 5 completed wave (A) around the 152.50 level. See below
Wave (B) Corrective Recovery and What’s Next
Following the completion of wave (A), USDJPY is now advancing in a multi‑leg corrective rally within wave (B). The consolidation is unfolding as a double three W‑X‑Y structure, with price lifting from the 153.00 floor to current levels near 154.67. Sub‑wave Y is projected to extend toward the 155.03–156.15 zone, aligning with the 100–1.618 Fibonacci extension. Once wave (B) completes its corrective pattern in this extreme area, the broader bearish cycle is expected to resume in wave (C), driving price toward fresh lows in the 151.56–146.11 Blue‑box area, where bulls are anticipated to step in for a turn higher after completing ((Y)) of II
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USD/JPY rose to 154.87 on Tuesday, with the Japanese yen weakening for a second consecutive session. Pressure on the yen has intensified as the US dollar strengthens ahead of an expected Federal Reserve rate increase this week.
Higher oil prices remain an additional negative factor for the yen. Rising energy costs increase Japan’s import bill, placing further pressure on an economy that remains heavily dependent on imported energy.
That said, the yen is still trading close to seven-month highs. It continues to receive support from expectations of more aggressive monetary tightening by the Bank of Japan, the unwinding of carry trades and signs of increased capital repatriation by Japanese investors.
The Bank of Japan is expected to raise its policy rate to 1.25% on Friday, which would be the highest level since April 1995, amid growing inflation risks. Markets will also be watching closely for signals from the central bank about the possibility of another rate increase before the end of the year.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market formed a consolidation range around 154.13. The range has since expanded downwards to 153.23 and upwards to 154.95.
An upside breakout from this range could open the way for a further rise towards 155.05. A downside breakout, however, would increase the likelihood of a decline towards 152.40.
The MACD indicator supports the short-term upside scenario. Its signal line remains below zero but is pointing sharply upwards, indicating strengthening bullish momentum.
On the H1 USD/JPY chart, the market completed an upward move towards 154.95, followed by a correction to 153.98. A new upward move is currently developing towards 155.05.
Once this move is complete, the main scenario envisages a reversal lower towards 153.70, with the decline potentially extending towards 152.40.
The Stochastic oscillator supports the subsequent bearish scenario. Its signal line remains below 80 and appears poised to turn lower towards 20.
USD/JPY Outlook USD/JPY retains short-term upside potential towards 155.05 as the dollar remains supported ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting.
However, the broader technical scenario points to a possible reversal once this target is reached. A decline towards 153.70 would then become the first downside target, with 152.40 emerging as the next target if bearish momentum strengthens.
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For now, the bond market is the more important concern for precious metals. The U.S. Benchmark 10-year yield crossed the 5% mark for the first time since October 2023, making the opportunity cost of holding Gold higher. With markets less concerned about the Fed hiking and more concerned about what Chair Kevin Warsh indicated, a more forward guidance indication that Wednesday starts a broader rate hike cycle will be a greater fundamental headwind.
Counter to the above, geopolitical fluctuations continue to be more supportive. A repeat of weekend attacks by Iran-aligned Houthis on Saudi Arabia has continued to create disruptions to Middle East energy supplies, making the defensive assets needed more supportive. While the resulting inflation has increased the case for tighter Fed policies, the need for Middle East defensive assets remains.
Silver shares the rate-and-yield stress that plagues gold. The combined impact of industry and worrying longer-term manufacturing and investment demand erosion from elevated borrowing costs may intensify the impact of industrial demand. Fortunately, the physically tight market serves as a supportive anchor.
Fundamental bias: Gold neutral-to-bearish, Silver neutral-to-bearish, with Wednesday’s Fed guidance being more significant than the expected rate hike.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds $4,283 Support as $4,316 Resistance Caps the Recovery
The Pound-Canadian Dollar could come under pressure if UK jobs data disappoints, while firm oil prices may continue to support the Loonie. The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate wavered on Monday as rising oil prices and softer Canadian inflation impacted the pairing.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8762, virtually unchanged on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.876999 (+0.03%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.607211 (-0.11%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.39181 (+0.34%)
DAILY RECAP:
The crude-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) initially firmed as this week’s trade began as escalating tensions in the Middle East triggered a rise in oil prices.
Over the weekend, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels intensified their attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure, fuelling fears that the crisis could spiral out of control.
However, the ‘Loonie’ struggled to sustain its upside following slightly softer-than-forecast Canadian inflation figures.
Most notably, key inflation measures tracked by the Bank of Canada (BoC) remained close to target, dampening any bets that the Canadian central bank might take a more hawkish approach.
The Pound (GBP) traded without a clear direction on Monday, as Sterling remained cautious ahead of a busy week for the UK economy. With little domestic data likely to drive movement at the start of the week, attention instead turned to the series of releases and events still to come.
The week’s main highlights include the latest UK labour market figures, consumer price index, Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and retail sales data.
With so many potential market-moving events on the horizon, GBP traders appeared unwilling to make bold moves. As a result, the Pound remained relatively subdued as the week began.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: British Jobs Report to Undermine GBP? Looking ahead, Tuesday’s UK employment figures could set the tone for Sterling, as traders look to the latest data for a clearer picture of conditions across the labour market.
Unemployment is forecast to tick up from 4.9% to 5% in the three months to July, while wage growth including bonuses is expected to have eased over the same period.
If the figures point to a softening jobs market, the Pound could come under additional pressure, particularly with the Bank of England’s interest rate decision due later in the week.
As for the Canadian Dollar, a lack of domestic data could leave the ‘Loonie’ to trade on oil price dynamics. If oil remains strong, CAD could attract support.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Pound-Euro could come under pressure if UK jobs data weakens BoE expectations, while stronger German sentiment may offer the Euro support. The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate climbed on Monday, hitting a two-week high, as strength in the US Dollar (USD) weighed on the single currency.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1681, up 0.2% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.168302 (+0.17%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.34829 (-0.33%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.15406 (-0.50%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Euro (EUR) came under pressure on Monday as the common currency suffered from its strong negative correlation with the US Dollar.
USD firmed ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision later in the week, where the US central bank is expected to raise rates from 3.75% to 4%.
A lack of Eurozone economic data left the Euro struggling to attract support, exposing the currency to losses.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) traded without a clear direction on Monday as GBP investors opted to wait on the sidelines ahead of a busy week.
While UK data was absent from the calendar on Monday, there was plenty on the docket for the rest of the week’s trade.
The UK’s latest labour market overview, consumer price index, Bank of England (BoE) rate decision and retail sales figures were all on the horizon.
This left GBP investors hesitant to place aggressive bets on Monday.
Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: Sterling to Stumble on UK Jobs Data? Looking forward, Tuesday’s session kicks off with the UK’s latest jobs data.
Markets expect British unemployment to have risen in the three months to July, from 4.9% to 5%. Meanwhile, wage growth (including bonuses) is forecast to have cooled.
If the latest data points to a softening labour market, it could pressure the Pound – particularly ahead of the Bank of England interest rate decision on Thursday.
As for the Euro, Germany’s latest ZEW economic sentiment index could support the single currency on Tuesday. Morale in the Eurozone’s largest economy is anticipated to have improved for the fifth consecutive month in September to hit a seven-month high.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Pound-Dollar could face further pressure if UK jobs data disappoints, while Fed rate hike expectations may continue to underpin the US Dollar. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Monday as expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate hike this week boosted the ‘Greenback’.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3473, down 0.4% on the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.348132 (-0.34%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.154027 (-0.51%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 154.59774 (+0.70%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Monday as traders bought the ‘Greenback’ ahead of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday evening.
Markets broadly expect the Fed to hike interest rates when it concludes its meeting this week, and these expectations boosted USD’s appeal.
In addition, the safe-haven American currency attracted support amid a souring mood. Escalating tensions in the Middle East rattled markets, after Yemen’s Houthi rebels intensified attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure.
The Pound (GBP) lacked momentum on Monday as Sterling traders remained cautious ahead of a packed run of UK economic events. With little domestic data on the calendar to drive movement at the beginning of the week, attention quickly turned towards a much busier schedule in the days to come.
Markets were preparing for the release of the latest UK labour market figures, consumer price index, Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision and retail sales data.
The number of potential catalysts on the horizon left GBP traders hesitant to make significant moves, keeping the Pound subdued as the new week began.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Jobs Data to Dent Sterling? Looking forward, Tuesday’s UK employment report will put Sterling to its first significant test of the week, with traders looking for clues about the health of the labour market.
Unemployment across the UK is expected to have risen from 4.9% to 5% in the three months to July. At the same time, wage growth including bonuses is forecast to have eased.
A weaker labour market could leave the Pound under pressure, especially with the Bank of England’s interest rate decision only two days away on Thursday.
Meanwhile, US data is thin on the ground on Tuesday. As a result, market risk appetite could drive USD. Could a prevailing risk-off mood support the ‘Greenback’?
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
US Treasury yields have backed up hard across both nominal and real curves heading into what's expected to be the Fed's first interest rate hike since July 2023.
EURGBP currency pair recently reversed from the resistance zone located between the resistance level 0.8585 (which has been reversing the price from the end of July), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the earlier minor impulse wave 3 from the end of August.
Given the strong daily downtrend, EURGBP currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level 0.8545 – low of the previous correction 2.
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Cable dipped on Monday on fresh risk aversion and tested again key 1.3470 support zone (Fibo 38.2% of 1.3140/1.3675, reinforced by rising 55DMA and bull-trendline off 1.3140 low) where several attacks have been recently rejected.
Eventual break of this temporary higher base would generate fresh bearish signal (bearish continuation of descend from Aug 21 top at 1.3675).
Daily studies maintain strong negative momentum, with multiple MA bear-crosses, contributing to bearishly aligned fundamental outlook (dollar enjoys support from strong Fed rate hike expectations and its safe haven appeal on higher oil prices, sharp fall of AI-related stocks, while Bank of England’s MPC meets this week and is widely expected to keep rates unchanged).
Firm break of 1.3470 would expose converged 200/100DMAs (1.3450/40 respectively) and top of rising daily Ichimoku cloud / 50% retracement of 1.3140/1.3675 rally (1.3410/07).
On the other hand, another failure at 1.3470 zone would keep the price within extended near-term range, but bearishly aligned, while the action stays below falling 10DMA (1.3516).
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Silver is currently correcting the bullish cycle that began at the July 2026 low, potentially resulting in a significant pullback. This raises critical questions for traders: what happens once the correction concludes? Will the metal rally toward the January 2026 high, or is it poised for extended sideways movement or further downside?
Following the record highs in late January 2026, Silver experienced a sharp decline, signaling the onset of a significant bearish cycle. Despite this sell-off, many market participants maintain a bullish outlook, anticipating that the metal will eventually break to new highs in the coming weeks, months, or years. Meanwhile, after completing a 7-swing structure in July 2026, Silver received a major boost as dollar weakness encouraged investors to move into riskier assets.
Following the July 2026 lows, Silver rallied, recovering exactly 23.6% of the decline from the January peak while hitting a three-month high in late August. Furthermore, the commodity completed a clear 5-wave structure. Given the shallow depth of this bounce, market participants are anticipating at least another 5-wave move to the upside from the late August pullback extreme. Our global team of Elliotticians at Elliottwave-Forecast suggests that the bearish cycle initiated by the January high is now complete as a supercycle degree wave (II), signaling the start of a broader recovery. This outlook is further supported by a bearish dollar forecast and anticipated acceleration in both equities and high-beta assets.
Silver Elliott Wave Forecast – 5th September 2026 Since the July 2026 low, Silver has completed a 5-wave impulse structure, which we identified as wave ((1)). According to standard Elliott Wave theory, a 5-wave advance is typically followed by a 3-wave pullback before the bullish cycle resumes. We shared the corresponding H4 chart with our members on September 5, 2026, to illustrate this expected development.
Wave ((2)) began developing from the peak of wave ((1)). Following the completion of a 5-wave structure for wave (A), we anticipated a 3-wave bounce for wave (B), followed by a 5-wave decline in wave (C) to finalize wave ((2)) before the broader bullish cycle from late July could resume. As the chart illustrates wave C of (B) in progress, we projected one final leg higher followed by a swift sell-off.
Silver Elliott Wave Forecast – 10th September 2026 The price has completed wave (B) exactly as anticipated, followed by the expected sell-off for wave (C) of ((2)). Silver is now positioned to extend its decline toward the 60.4–56.4 support zone, where we expect wave ((2)) to conclude before the resumption of the broader bullish trend.
The H4 chart shared on September 6th successfully guided members through the price action seen on September 9th and 10th. This helped them avoid being trapped in premature long positions. With the structure confirming that a significant move was not yet imminent, the question remains: what comes next? We have been tracking these developments closely through our hourly charts, which are updated four times per day for our members. Below is the latest update.
Silver Elliott Wave Forecast – 14th September 2026 The latest H1 chart below highlights the sub-waves of wave (C). The price is currently developing within wave 3 of (C), specifically tracking wave ((ii)) of 3 of (C). We will provide a further update early in the Asian session once new market data becomes available.
The upcoming Asia H1 update will determine if Silver moves higher to extend wave 2 or breaks below the wave ((i)) low, which would confirm our current count. Additionally, members can access our daily technical video, which outlines the expected price path heading into the London session. This is part of our 24-hour market analysis service. We provide up-to-date technical insights for Silver and over 77 other instruments, including Forex, Cryptocurrencies, ETFs, Stock Indices, and Commodities.
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Fed hike expectations have firmed sharply ahead of Wednesday's FOMC decision, helping the US dollar retain a bid and USD/JPY recover from last week's selloff. Meanwhile, AUD/JPY is testing a major support cluster after falling more than 4.6% in two weeks, raising the prospect of a near-term bounce before bears look to re-engage.
Spot silver daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Hammer Formation Adds Confirmation Potential Given the current price action, silver may end the day with a hammer candlestick pattern, establishing a potential one-day bullish pattern at a key support zone. In addition to support indications noted above, Monday’s low also completed a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior upswing. The recovery of key support levels following the day’s low also included the July lower swing high of $63.28. A bullish trend reversal signal occurred during the August advance that reclaimed that level.
Bullish Evidence Builds Taken together, the bullish technical evidence suggests that a low for the pullback may have been reached with Monday’s low. An upside breakout above $64.48 would trigger the hammer pattern and generate a new higher swing low at $62.33. Notably, establishing a sustained higher swing low would suggest that the first pullback after a significant upside breakout may be close to completing. Both the July swing high and the 50-day moving average previously represented resistance and are now potentially acting as support.
That shift from resistance to support is bullish behavior and reinforces the developing setup. However, additional signs of strength are needed to confirm the thesis and validate Monday’s apparent shakeout, which began with silver briefly falling below key support before buyers regained control.
