Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Higher real yields and a firmer US Dollar may keep gold prices under pressure, but analysts eye weakness towards $3,850–$4,000 as an opportunity to rebuild exposure. The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded around $4,031 an ounce on Wednesday, attempting a modest recovery after losing 1.2% in the previous session and falling for a second consecutive day.

The metal has spent much of July oscillating around $4,000, well below the record levels reached earlier this year. It remains marginally higher for the month, but has fallen sharply since March, when prices briefly traded above $5,400.

UBS says the correction reflects a more difficult macro backdrop rather than the collapse of the longer-term investment case.

“Stronger US data and rising real yields have sapped gold’s near-term momentum,” the bank said, adding that higher yields and a stronger Dollar have increased the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no income.

Expectations for Federal Reserve policy have shifted alongside the stronger data. Markets have moved from anticipating rate cuts to considering whether the Fed could tighten again, a change that has been particularly uncomfortable for gold.

UBS nevertheless describes the retreat as “more like a reset than a broken investment case”.

Investor demand for gold exchange-traded funds has softened from earlier peaks, but positioning suggests investors have not abandoned the market. UBS also expects the Fed to remain on hold through 2026 before cutting rates in 2027, a path that should eventually reduce pressure from real yields and the Dollar.

Structural demand remains central to the bank’s argument.

“Central bank demand, continued diversification away from the US dollar, and global debt concerns remain important structural supports,” UBS said.

Image: Gold price year-to-date chart showing the retreat from January’s record high above $5,500 towards the $4,000 area The latest Exchange Rates UK chart captures just how dramatic the year has been.

The price of gold surged from around $4,300 at the start of January to above $5,500 later that month, before enduring a volatile decline through the spring. After another rally towards $5,350 in early March, the market began a more persistent retreat, reaching the $4,000 region by June.

The recent price action has been less spectacular but no less important. Gold has repeatedly found buyers close to $4,000, although rebounds have struggled to develop into a sustained recovery.

RBC Capital Markets’ latest Gold Standard review offers some evidence that investors are returning at lower levels.

Gold rose 1% to $4,056 during the week covered by the report, while physical gold ETFs recorded inflows of 404,000 ounces. Total global ETF holdings stood near 97 million ounces, although they remained 2.3 million ounces lower than at the end of 2025.

The same review showed US ten-year real yields climbing 14 basis points to 2.43%, while the Dollar index rose 0.7%. Those are usually hostile conditions for bullion, yet gold still managed a weekly advance.

RBC’s correlation data underline the relationship: gold’s one-year correlation with US ten-year real yields was negative 0.43, while its correlation with the Dollar index was negative 0.46.

In other words, the usual headwinds are still working. They simply have not been powerful enough to drive investors out altogether.

Near-Term Gold Price Forecast: UBS Sees $3,850–$4,000 Pullbacks as Buying Opportunities UBS expects gold to end 2026 around $4,600 an ounce before rising to $5,200 by June 2027.

That forecast allows for further weakness first. The bank says pullbacks towards the $3,850–$4,000 range “should be seen as opportunities for under-allocated investors to add exposure, rather than a reason to abandon the position”.

It also continues to view gold as a strategic portfolio hedge, arguing that the metal can offer diversification during equity-market stress, geopolitical shocks, inflation surprises and periods of weakening confidence in fiat currencies.

The next test will come from US economic data and the Federal Reserve. Another rise in real yields or a more hawkish policy signal could push gold back towards the lower end of UBS’s buying range.

A softer run of data would change the mood quickly. With ETF flows turning positive again and prices already far below their early-year peak, the market may not need much encouragement to challenge $4,200.

UBS’s message is not that the correction is over. It is that investors waiting for a cleaner entry may already be getting one.

EUR/USD struggles below 1.1400 on Wednesday as traders brace for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate decision at 18:00 GMT, while the war in the Middle East fuels volatility across financial markets. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1393, little changed on the day.

US President Donald Trump threatened heavy military action against Tehran following an Iranian missile attack on a US base in Jordan. The renewed hostilities came after a brief pause in attacks between the United States and Iran.

Oil prices climbed sharply on Wednesday, snapping a three-day sell-off as the return of normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz appeared increasingly distant. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $83, up more than 5% on the day

The US Dollar initially gained following Trump’s remarks but later gave up some of its advance as traders moved to the sidelines ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy announcement. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.35 after touching an intraday high of 101.49.

The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range. However, the risk of a rate hike remains on the table if policymakers decide that a stronger response is needed to contain energy-driven inflation. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders price in around a 30% chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

With no updated economic projections or dot plot due at this meeting, the voting split and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks will be closely watched to determine the future path of interest rates.

A surprise rate hike would strengthen the US Dollar and put fresh selling pressure on EUR/USD. Conversely, a less hawkish message could weigh on the Greenback and help EUR/USD reclaim the psychological 1.1400 mark.

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that Gold remains under pressure as markets price a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) path and renewed energy strength. They highlight that CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) short covering only begins above $4,222/oz, with more substantial net long positioning closer to $4,300/oz. However, they expect multiple dissents and ongoing hike pricing to limit Gold’s ability to reach these CTA trigger levels.

Fed pricing restrains gold CTA flows"Precious metals have remained weak in the face of hawkish market pricing for the Fed, and renewed energy upside will continue to feed into this narrative."

"Gold markets are already well-priced for a hawkish Fed path, and while we are not expecting a hike today, the bar may be high to shift the underlying forward expectations for the yellow metal."

"CTAs need prices above $4,222/oz to catalyze only very minimal short covering, but beyond this level, pricing simulations highlight the potential for asymmetric upside with prices closer to $4,300/oz likely to see notable net long positions."

"However, we expect multiple dissents to a hold decision, and markets continuing to price for hikes in September and beyond, which would likely see any gold upside fall short of hitting those upside CTA scenario levels."

"War risk is back on, but we are not expecting any material CTA flows across the energy complex. Elsewhere, precious metals will be focused on the Fed, but the bar will be high to shift the underlying bearish forces in the gold market."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Canadian Dollar Talking Points: USD/CAD rallied as USD strength showed after the June FOMC rate decision. The pair then showed three weeks of stall at the 1.4200 level, with the following pullback then finding two weeks of support at 1.4000, leading into this week.

It’s been a quieter year so far in 2026 for USD/CAD from what showed up last year. In 2025 the pair began with a tumultuous rally that quickly reversed, pushed along by the tariff saga that produced both a multi-decade high and a dizzying sell-off. But, over the past year, the pair has actually been somewhat calm with a few different revolutions inside of an approximate 700 pip range.

That range did threaten to give way, however, as USD-strength took over after the June FOMC meeting, helping USD/CAD to get back above the vaulted 1.4000 level on its way to a test of 1.4200.

That test of 1.4200 ultimately failed, with three weeks of resistance showing around that price, and the corresponding pullback has, so far, held support at the same spot of 1.4000.

USD/CAD Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/CAD Bounce is Fading Last week was when bulls started to re-appear and this happened after four days of grind around the big figure, and the price action at the time is illuminating as you can see the underside wicks showing buyers coming in to the equation. First, they showed up 25 pips above the big figure, and then ten pips and six pips the following two days. But it’s the big blue candle, taking the appearance of a bullish engulf on July 20th, where bulls started to take back over.

That run led into this week’s open but so far, we’ve seen buyers pulling back on the throttle – so this can be argued in either direction. This can be seen as sellers defending a lower-high, with resistance at prior support around the 1.4150 area. That can keep the door open for another push down towards 1.4000. Or, alternatively, this can be argued as a pause in a bullish continuation move at which point higher-low support should show above the 1.4000 test or, ideally, above the 1.4058 level that showed as a higher-low before the 1.4150 test.

USD/CAD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Gold hovers at 4,013, capped by its declining EMAs above 4,000. Source: TradingView The gold market gapped lower to show signs of negativity at the open on Wednesday as we sit just above the crucial $4,000 level. The $4,000 level, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and so far has shown a proclivity to be supported all the way down to the $3,900 level. This has been tested a few times recently.

The upside is capped at least in the short term from what we’ve seen near the $4,200 level, and the 50-day EMA racing towards that level also has an influence as well. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision later in the day, and as that influences the bond market, it will certainly influence the gold market in tandem. Higher yields typically work against the value of gold, and that certainly has been the case from time to time here recently.

The Euro (EUR) holds marginal gains against the US Dollar on Wednesday after finding some support in the mid-range of the 1.1300s earlier this week but remains unable to find acceptance above 1.1400. This leaves the EUR/USD pair vulnerable to further decline below the year-to-date low, at 1.1324, if a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) provides an additional boost to the US Dollar.

The Fed is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate on hold, although markets are pricing a 35$ chance of a quarter-point hike later in the day. A surprise tightening move is highly likely to send the US Dollar rallying, but a hawkish pause, the most likely scenario, might also provide support for the USD as it will cement hopes of a September hike.

In Europe, European Central Bank (ECB) council member and Cyprus Central Bank Governor Christodoulos Patsalides reiterated that higher Oil prices are boosting inflation risks, but he refused to give any hint about September’s monetary policy decision. The Euro showed no reaction to the comments.

Technical Analysis: Consolidating losses amid a bearish trend

EUR/USD trades around 1.1390, wavering in the lower range of July's trading channel and unable to put any significant distance from the 13-month low of 1.1324. Momentum indicators hint at a neutral-to-slightly-capped near-term bias with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) below the midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edging marginally above zero, highlighting subdued bullish conviction.

On the topside, above 1.1400, bulls are likely to be challenged at 1.1440 (July 23 highs) ahead of the top of the last six weeks' trading range, at the 1.1480 area. On the downside, key support is at the mentioned 1.1324 low; further down, the next target is in the area between the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 17-24 sell-off, at 1.1245, and the late May 2025 low, at 1.1210.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.33%0.00%0.08%0.85%0.44%0.46%EUR-0.09%0.22%-0.09%-0.01%0.77%0.35%0.37%GBP-0.33%-0.22%-0.41%-0.23%0.55%0.13%0.15%JPY0.00%0.09%0.41%0.06%0.84%0.43%0.36%CAD-0.08%0.00%0.23%-0.06%0.74%0.37%0.38%AUD-0.85%-0.77%-0.55%-0.84%-0.74%-0.41%-0.40%NZD-0.44%-0.35%-0.13%-0.43%-0.37%0.41%0.02%CHF-0.46%-0.37%-0.15%-0.36%-0.38%0.40%-0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The Euro (EUR) is nursing moderate losses against the British Pound (GBP) on Wednesday, as bulls failed to find acceptance above the 0.8575 resistance area on Tuesday. The pair, however, remains within the upper range of the 0.8500s with the near-term bullish bias intact, and the focus shifting towards the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy meeting, due on Thursday.

Rabobank’s FX strategists warn that the Pound could come under pressure as markets reassess the UK policy outlook. They argue that “the potential for disappointment over a lack of rate rises from the Bank this year, coupled with the likelihood of political friction over budget cuts,” may turn market sentiment less supportive for sterling.

Technical Analysis: Bulls target 0.8575 and the 0.8600 area

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8566, hovering in the upper half of a bullish channel. Momentum indicators are in positive territory, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 64, after pulling back from overbought levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram at slightly positive levels, hinting that upside pressure is still intact.

Immediate resistance is in the area between the mentioned 0.8575 area (July 2, 3, and 29 highs) and the channel cap, now around 0.8580. Above these levels, the next target is the late-June lows, around 0.8605.

On the downside, first support emerges at the 0.8550 area where Tuesday's lows meet the channel base. Below here, the July 23 low, near 0.8530, and July 17 and 20 highs in the 0.8510-0.8515 area are expected to challenge bears.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.00%0.26%-0.05%0.07%0.80%0.35%0.41%EUR0.00%0.25%-0.04%0.07%0.80%0.35%0.41%GBP-0.26%-0.25%-0.39%-0.18%0.55%0.10%0.15%JPY0.05%0.04%0.39%0.10%0.83%0.38%0.35%CAD-0.07%-0.07%0.18%-0.10%0.70%0.28%0.34%AUD-0.80%-0.80%-0.55%-0.83%-0.70%-0.45%-0.40%NZD-0.35%-0.35%-0.10%-0.38%-0.28%0.45%0.05%CHF-0.41%-0.41%-0.15%-0.35%-0.34%0.40%-0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar has retreated as traders square positions ahead of the FOMC meeting results announcement. The futures market puts the odds of a Fed rate hike at 1 in 3 following the 28–29 July meeting. There is a high risk of a surprise from the Fed, so speculators are unwinding some of their record net long positions in the greenback, the highest since 2015.

Data points to rates being held steady: June employment figures cooled after strong spring growth, and inflation has slowed. Furthermore, several FOMC officials have stated that monetary policy is in the right place, and Kevin Warsh gave no indication of tightening in his testimony before Congress.

Conversely, advocates of monetary tightening argue that the start of a tightening cycle signals the Fed’s readiness to deploy all its resources to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target, as Kevin Warsh has repeatedly stated. Without a 25-basis-point rise in July, the Fed may need to hike by 50 basis points in September. At the same time, the new Fed Chair could demonstrate his independence and the central bank's independence from White House directives.

The Fed’s decision is of paramount importance for gold. The precious metal is under pressure and is unlikely to stray far from the $4,000-per-ounce mark, as the futures market anticipates two rounds of Fed rate hikes in 2026. In this regard, even if rates remain at their current level, hawkish rhetoric could have dire consequences for gold.

On the other hand, the US dollar risks weakening significantly if the Fed does not adjust its monetary policy and there are no more than two dissenting votes. This is the view of TD Securities, which forecasts that the presidents of the Cleveland and Dallas Feds, Beth Hammack and Lori Logan, will vote in favour of a rate hike. In this scenario, gold could head towards $4,150 and beyond.

The precious metal has reacted calmly to the rise in oil prices caused by Iran’s unexpected strikes on US bases in Jordan and to Hong Kong’s increase in gold bar imports to their highest level since late 2014. This points to strong demand from mainland China. However, history shows that when gold flows from West to East, i.e., from ETFs to Asian consumers, a downward trend in gold prices is the most common outcome. 

Summary: Gold’s path hinges on the Fed: hawkish signals could pressure prices, while steady rates and limited dissent may weaken the dollar and lift Gold. 

Gold and silver continue to consolidate above major historical support zones as markets await the Federal Reserve's policy decision. While gold is holding above a decade-long trendline dating back to 2016, silver is facing a multi-decade support zone originating from the 1980 highs.

These rare long-term technical setups raise an important question for investors: Is this a buying opportunity, or is it better to wait for greater clarity before re-entering the market?

Fed Expectations Take Center Stage Source: CME

That question becomes even more relevant as markets prepare for today's Federal Reserve decision.

Current market expectations imply:

Around a 70% probability that the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged. Nearly a 30% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Expectations that policymakers will maintain a hawkish tone, supported by persistent Middle East tensions and renewed inflation risks. September Expectations Turn More Hawkish

Source: CME

Looking ahead to September, expectations become considerably more hawkish:

More than a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Around a 19% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. Around a 23% probability of rates remaining unchanged. These expectations continue to support the US Dollar Index above the 101 level, strengthening the US dollar while weighing on major currency pairs, including USD/JPY, which continues to trade near levels last seen in the 1980s.

At the same time, gold and silver remain trapped near critical technical confluence zones as investors assess whether Treasury yields will continue rising or whether the Federal Reserve could deliver a less hawkish message.

I discussed these scenarios in greater detail during my latest bi-weekly webinar.

Register Here

Regardless of whether the next catalyst comes from geopolitical developments, a stronger US dollar, or a shift in Fed guidance, the key technical levels outlined below provide a framework for assessing both the short-term and long-term outlook.

DXY Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The monthly chart highlights that the US Dollar Index continues to hold within a major bullish confluence zone, supported by:

The neckline of a potential double-bottom pattern. The midpoint of a descending parallel channel extending from 2022. A multi-year support and resistance zone that has repeatedly defined price action since 2023. Monthly RSI holding comfortably above the neutral 50 level A monthly close above 102.00 would strengthen the bullish outlook, exposing resistance at 102.80, 104.50, and ultimately 107.00, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel in place since 2022.

Such a move would likely coincide with renewed geopolitical tensions, stronger inflation pressures, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve. It would also increase downside pressure across major currencies and precious metals, potentially pushing both toward fresh 2026 lows before a longer-term recovery develops.

On the downside, a break below the uptrend support zone between 100.30 and 99.30 would weaken the year’s bullish structure, improving the outlook for currencies and precious metals. I explained these scenarios in the bi-weekly webinar below

Gold Price Outlook: 6 -Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a six-month perspective, gold is testing one of the most significant technical confluence zones in decades.

Price continues to hold near the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. A sustained break below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% retracement between 3,500 and 3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025. Gold is also holding above the long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of the market's most important long-term support levels. Whether gold rebounds from this area or extends its correction will largely depend on:

Crude oil price direction Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz The Federal Reserve's policy outlook

Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

Despite the strength of this higher-time-frame support zone, gold remains trapped inside a contracting consolidation between 3,930 and 4,200.

The broader short-term outlook therefore remains neutral, with key levels inside the consolidation at:

4,140 on the upside. 3,960–3,930 on the downside. Meanwhile, the daily RSI continues to form a bullish divergence, suggesting downside momentum is gradually fading. However, confirmation requires a breakout above both the descending trendline connecting the lower highs since March 2026 and resistance between 4,140 and 4,200.

Gold Bullish Scenario

A sustained recovery above 4,140 and 4,200 would shift the short-term outlook back in favor of buyers. That would expose the next resistance levels at: 4,340 - 4,400

A breakout above 4,400 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery across precious metals while increasing confidence that the longer-term uptrend has resumed. Gold Bearish Scenario

On the downside, a break below the 3,960–3,930 support zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.

The next downside objectives are:

3,880–3,840, corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700 3,500 - 3,460, respected 5 month resistance zone in 2025 These longer-term support zones could provide another significant reversal opportunity.

As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.

Silver Price Outlook: 3-Month Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments.

A shooting star reversal candle. A breakdown below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. Price approaching the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs recorded between 1980 and 2024, which may now transition from long-term resistance into major support. This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance between $46 and $50.

The shorter-term outlook is further clarified on the daily chart below.

Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

From a daily perspective, silver is attempting to stabilize above the descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026.

At the same time, momentum indicators remain below the neckline of the previous head-and-shoulders pattern, keeping the short-term bearish bias intact despite bullish divergence.

A break below $55.50 would expose the longer-term support zone between $50 and $46. Conversely, a breakout above $61 exposes $63.80 - $68 - $72. Long term outlook: a confirmed breakout above 72 would significantly strengthen confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit silver prices over the longer term.

Key Takeaway

The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain one of the primary benchmarks for both the foreign exchange and precious metals markets as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.

The 101.80–102.00 resistance zone remains the key to watch for upside risks The 100.30 - 99.30 support zone remains key to watch for downside risks Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

TL;DR: With geopolitical risk fading and Brent retreated sharply this week, Gold has settled into a narrow range above $4,000 — leaving today’s FOMC vote breakdown, not the headline rate decision, as the market’s next major catalyst.

Why the Market’s Focus Is Shifting Back to the Fed Gold has spent much of this week trapped in a narrow, established range, reluctant to break out on either side. The hesitation reflects a broader market transition. Last week, every move was dictated by developments in the Middle East, as fears of supply disruption sent Brent crude briefly above $100 and revived concerns about a renewed inflation shock. This week, that geopolitical premium has faded. Gold has settled into a narrow range above $4,000, and the baton has passed back to the Federal Reserve.

That transition reflects a rapid easing in market anxiety. Following the suspension of military strikes between the United States and Iran over the weekend, Brent crude has fallen sharply toward $80, erasing much of last week’s war premium. Reports on Tuesday suggesting attacks resumed have done little to change the picture, with oil struggling to sustain gains beyond $85. Investors appear to believe a renewed, large-scale US offensive is not currently the most likely outcome, reducing concerns that energy prices will trigger another significant inflation shock.

As a result, both Gold and the Dollar have lost the clear directional impulses that dominated trading last week. Without a sustained energy shock feeding inflation fears, investors are once again looking through the geopolitical noise and back toward the Federal Reserve. That leaves today’s FOMC meeting as the next major catalyst.

Why the Rate Decision Itself Won’t Move Markets With geopolitical risk fading into the background, attention naturally returns to monetary policy. The FOMC rate decision itself is unlikely to surprise — markets overwhelmingly expect the Fed to leave the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. Nor is Chair Kevin Warsh expected to offer extensive forward guidance. Since taking office, he has consistently argued the Fed should communicate less about future policy paths and let incoming economic data speak for itself. That philosophy suggests neither the policy statement nor the post-meeting press conference is likely to materially reshape expectations.

Instead, investors are likely to judge the meeting by something far more revealing: the distribution of votes.

The Vote Math: Who’s Hawkish, Who’s Dovish, Who’s Undecided Fed funds futures currently imply roughly a 79% probability of a September rate hike. Whether that pricing proves justified may depend on how broad support for tighter policy has become within the Committee.

Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are widely expected to support an immediate hike, after consistently warning about persistent inflation risks. On the other side, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, Governor Lisa Cook, and New York Fed President John Williams are generally viewed as favoring patience and expected to back holding rates steady.

The real uncertainty lies with several influential swing votes:

Governor Christopher Waller has traditionally been among the Committee’s more dovish members, but recently indicated he would need only one more inflation report before supporting another rate increase. Although June CPI came in softer than expected, that alone may not rule out a hawkish vote. Even more closely watched is Warsh himself. While he may avoid signaling future policy intentions publicly, his vote offers a direct window into his own assessment of inflation risks. A vote in favor of tightening would likely be interpreted as a meaningful shift in the Committee’s center of gravity. Former Chair Jerome Powell, who remains a Governor, is another unknown after keeping a low profile on policy preferences. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also represents a potential wildcard, while Governors Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman, together with Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, round out a Committee whose internal balance is receiving unusually close scrutiny. If only Hammack and Logan vote for a hike, markets may view the outcome as broadly consistent with current pricing. But if Warsh, Waller, or another influential policymaker joins the hawkish camp, investors could quickly strengthen expectations for a September rate increase. Treasury yields and the Dollar would likely move higher in response, increasing pressure on Gold and raising the risk of a downside break below its recent range.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold Technically, Gold’s decline from the 4,166.08 high has lacked convincing downside momentum, suggesting sellers have yet to seize full control. Nevertheless, near-term risks continue to favor the downside while 4,116.09 minor resistance caps rebounds.

Retesting the 3,942.23 low appears the most likely scenario. A decisive break there would confirm resumption of the broader correction and target the 38.2% projection of 4,889.24 to 3,942.23 from 4,166.08, at 3,804.32. That would expose the next major projection level at 3,580.82.

On the upside, a break above 4,116.09 would postpone the bearish scenario and instead signal the consolidation from 3,942.23 is extending. In that case, Gold could recover through 4,202.87 before the broader direction is reassessed.

Key Takeaways Gold has settled into a range above $4,000 as fading Middle East risk hands market focus back to the Fed. Today’s FOMC rate decision itself is unlikely to surprise — the real signal lies in the voting breakdown, not the headline outcome. Waller and Warsh are the two swing votes markets are watching most closely, given their potential to shift the Committee’s hawkish-dovish balance. A broader hawkish tilt in the vote count would likely lift the Dollar and Treasury yields, pressuring Gold toward a downside break of its recent range. 3,942.23 is the key support to watch; a break there targets 3,804.32, while a rally above 4,116.09 would extend the current consolidation instead. Related Reading FOMC Vote Breakdown Explained: Why the Distribution Matters More Than the Decision. Christopher Waller’s Pivot: Is the Fed’s Most Dovish Voice Turning Hawkish? Brent Crude’s Retreat from $100: What It Means for Inflation Expectations. Gold Technical Outlook: Mapping Support From 3,942 to 3,580. Kevin Warsh’s Fed: Why Forward Guidance Is Disappearing. CTA: Get ActionForex’s real-time coverage of today’s FOMC vote and its impact on Gold — subscribe to Action Insight for updates as the decision lands.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

ING’s Francesco Pesole notes that EUR/USD may have bottomed last week if markets maintain a constructive view on further geopolitical de-escalation. He argues a sustained move above 1.15 still requires dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) repricing and stabilised risk sentiment. With a light eurozone calendar, EUR/USD is expected to react mainly to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), potentially returning to the 1.1400–1.1450 range in coming days.

Euro outlook tied to Fed repricing"The resumption of military strikes overnight is a reminder that caution remains warranted on EUR/USD. Even so, if markets are right to maintain a broadly constructive view on further de-escalation, there is a good chance the pair bottomed out last week. "

"For a sustainable move back above 1.15, two pieces are still missing: dovish Fed repricing, either through US data or communication, and a stabilisation in risk sentiment."

"While tech stocks’ independence from rates helped support EUR/USD during the spring, the current turmoil in the chip sector may now cap gains despite improving Middle East headlines."

"With little on today’s eurozone calendar, EUR/USD should take its cue from the FOMC. As a baseline reaction to a modest dovish Fed surprise, we look for a move back into the 1.1400-1.1450 range over the coming days."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $57.92 per troy ounce, up 1.36% from the $57.14 it cost on Tuesday.

Silver prices have decreased by 18.52% since the beginning of the year.

The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.73 on Wednesday, down from 70.50 on Tuesday.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3300 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.

In the European session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 101.30.

Investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s interest rate decision as traders are not aggressively confident that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged again. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed leaving interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% are 69.5%. In the last four policy meetings, the Fed didn’t execute any monetary policy adjustment and left policy rates steady.

Financial markets will also focus on the monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding inflation and the economic outlook in the wake of ongoing military aggression in the Middle East.

On Thursday, investors will focus on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy announcement. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates steady at 3.75%, with a 7-2 majority.

Analysts at Rabobank also said in a note that, “for now, the market is expecting steady policy from the MPC,” even as “hawkish dissenters will keep the market debating the risk of policy tightening from the BoE.” They argue that this debate is unlikely to translate into action in the near term, given “the backdrop of soft activity indicators and uncertainty about the autumn budget,” and conclude that RaboResearch “expects steady policy through to the end of the year.”

GBP/USD technical analysis

GBP/USD trades marginally higher at around 1.3300, but is retaining a near-term bearish bias as it holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3353 and below the broken downward resistance trend line that now caps the market around 1.3489.

The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 44, hinting at subdued upside momentum and suggesting that recent rebounds remain corrective while the pair trades under these overhead technical barriers.

Strategists at Scotiabank have also described the short-term technical backdrop for GBP/USD as "bearish," noting that the "RSI is drifting further into bearish territory and threatening a push below 40." They highlight that the "local range is bound between the late June low in the mid-1.31s and the mid-July high in the mid-1.35s," with "near-term support at 1.3250" and "near-term resistance at 1.3350." This configuration, they suggest, underscores a market that remains vulnerable within a defined range as momentum indicators continue to deteriorate.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator BoE MPC Vote Rate Unchanged Interest rates are set by the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). The MPC sets an interest rate it judges will enable the BoE’s inflation target to be met. It is comprised of nine members – the Governor, the three Deputy Governors, the Bank's Chief Economist and four external members appointed directly by the Chancellor. Investors look at each member’s vote in order to seek cues over how unanimous was the decision on interest rates.

Read more.

Next release: Thu Jul 30, 2026 11:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 7

Previous: 7

Source: Bank of England

The dollar’s next move hinges on tonight’s Fed decision, and this time markets genuinely don’t know what to expect. While economists still lean toward a hold—with CME FedWatch odds sitting near 68.5% for no change—Kevin Warsh’s hawkish rhetoric on having “no tolerance” for inflation, paired with growing internal FOMC support for a hike, has pushed hike odds up sharply from just 18% two weeks ago to over 30% today. Complicating things further, Warsh has deliberately scaled back forward guidance, meaning tonight’s press conference may offer fewer clues than usual.

The euro, meanwhile, has already had its say: the ECB held rates steady at 2.25% last Thursday, as expected, with Lagarde reaffirming the 2% target while flagging that energy-driven inflation risks from the Middle East conflict have yet to fully play out. Eurozone inflation cooled to 2.8% in June, but sticky services inflation near 3.5–4% keeps the door only cautiously open for a September move in either direction.

With EUR/USD trading near 1.1408, tonight’s Fed decision—not the ECB—is what will likely determine the pair’s next major direction.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

As the EUR/USD chart shows, the pair has been consolidating within a defined range since late June, squeezed between an ascending trendline and a descending trendline, both converging around the current price near 1.1400. The 200-period EMA continues to slope lower above price, reinforcing a cautious backdrop ahead of tonight’s Fed decision.

Bullish Scenario Should the dollar weaken on a dovish Fed outcome, price would need to break above the converging trendlines and reclaim the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 1.1420, with the 200-period EMA just above acting as the next key test. A confirmed break above the EMA would open the path towards the 0.5 and 0.618 retracements near 1.1480–1.1500, where stronger resistance has capped rallies since late June.

Bearish Scenario Conversely, a hawkish surprise—or even a hike—could send the euro sharply lower, breaking both the ascending trendline and the psychological 1.1360 support level. A confirmed break here would expose the 1.1320 zone, the 0.0 Fibonacci level marking the origin of the entire recovery move, with further downside risk towards fresh multi-week lows if selling pressure accelerates.

With price coiled right at the intersection of both trendlines and the Fed decision just hours away, EUR/USD looks primed for a decisive move. Will the dollar reassert its dominance, or will the euro finally break free of this range?

Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

FXOpenhttps://www.fxopen.com/

FXOpen is a global Forex and CFD Broker, founded in 2005 by a group of traders. With over 16 years of experience, the company has gained an excellent reputation a major brokerage that continues to expand rapidly. The broker offers a choice of platforms, including the popular MT4 and MT5 platforms, with a wide range of trading instruments with spreads from 0.0 pips: 600+ FX, index, share, commodity and cryptocurrency CFDs. FXOpen also provides its own PAMM technology, allowing clients to benefit from the strategies of experienced traders with a proven track record of successful trading and guarantees automatic distribution of profit and loss between the strategy provider and the strategy followers. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money. PAMM is only available in certain jurisdictions. Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to Retail clients at FXOpen UK.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to deliver a "hawkish hold", with markets already pricing at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. She highlights that recent declines in energy prices and a softer June inflation print reduce the odds of an immediate hike, limiting upside for the US Dollar and leaving EUR/USD sensitive to any scaling back of Fed tightening expectations.

Dollar vulnerable if hawkish hold disappoints"In all likelihood, this overall situation should lead to a “hawkish hold” this evening. The market expects at least one interest rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year and sees a chance that more could follow next year as well. It does not want to completely rule out an interest rate hike even today, even though it sees only a low probability for this to happen."

"After all, it is unlikely that Warsh will adopt an extremely hawkish stance given the recent drop in energy prices and a surprisingly low June inflation rate."

"For EUR/USD today, the key question is whether these expectations will be fueled - or not."

"If the market scales back its expectations because the (possibly shorter than usual) FOMC statement or Warsh’s press conference suggests that the Fed views price risks as manageable and, above all, temporary, a correction in the USD is certainly possible."

"Consequently, upward pressure on the US dollar driven by rising expectations of interest rate hikes is also unlikely."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the US Dollar (USD) at around 1.1393 during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair edges up as the US Dollar is slightly down ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 18:00 GMT.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades marginally lower to near 101.30.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders see a 69.5% chance that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%. This would be the fifth straight meeting when the Fed will maintain the status quo.

Investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference to get cues regarding whether the central bank is leaning towards United States (US) President Donald Trump’s economic agenda.

On Monday, US President Trump urged Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh to lower interest rates, adding that there was a good inflation report recently, costs were falling rapidly, and that prices should drop significantly once the Gulf War ends.

On the Eurozone front, investors await the German and the Eurozone flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July, which will be released on Thursday and Friday, respectively.

According to estimates, the German headline HICP grew at a stronger pace of 2.8% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 2.4% in June. Strong German inflation growth would prompt European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hike expectations.

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Pound-Australian Dollar could struggle to extend gains unless the Bank of England strikes a hawkish tone, while Australian inflation may revive RBA rate hike bets. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate edged higher on Tuesday as mixed comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock weighed on the ‘Aussie’ ahead of key inflation data.

At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading around AU$1.9081, up approximately 0.3% on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.912214 (+0.38%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.329842 (+0.09%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Australian Dollar (AUD) softened on Tuesday after investors pared expectations for further Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hikes following mixed remarks from Governor Michele Bullock.

Speaking in Sydney at the annual Anika Foundation lunch, Bullock reiterated concerns over persistently high inflation and suggested that further policy tightening may still be required.

However, she also emphasised the high level of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and noted that previous interest rate increases would take more time to feed through into the economy.

The comments prompted investors to trim expectations for an August rate hike and, combined with a more cautious market mood, left the ‘Aussie’ under pressure.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) traded in a relatively narrow range against most major currencies in the absence of fresh UK economic data.

With few domestic catalysts, investors were reluctant to take significant positions ahead of Thursday's Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision.

The BoE is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.75%, leaving markets focused on policymakers' forward guidance. If the Bank remains non-committal about the prospect of another rate hike later this year, Sterling could struggle to find support.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Rising Inflation to Lift the 'Aussie'? Looking ahead, Australia's quarterly consumer price index will be the key driver of the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate.

Inflation is expected to remain at 4.1% in the second quarter, although recent developments in the Middle East have increased the risk of a stronger-than-expected reading.

A higher inflation print could revive expectations for further Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate hikes and provide fresh support for the Australian Dollar.

Meanwhile, Sterling is likely to remain rangebound through the middle of the week as investors await Thursday's Bank of England policy announcement.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Commerzbank’s Antje Praefcke argues that the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh is likely to deliver a "hawkish hold", with markets already pricing at least one Fed rate hike by year-end. She highlights that recent declines in energy prices and a softer June inflation print reduce the odds of an immediate hike, limiting upside for the US Dollar and leaving EUR/USD sensitive to any scaling back of Fed tightening expectations.

Hawkish hold risk for Dollar"In all likelihood, this overall situation should lead to a “hawkish hold” this evening. The market expects at least one interest rate hike from the Fed by the end of the year and sees a chance that more could follow next year as well. It does not want to completely rule out an interest rate hike even today, even though it sees only a low probability for this to happen."

"For EUR/USD today, the key question is whether these expectations will be fueled - or not."

"If the market scales back its expectations because the (possibly shorter than usual) FOMC statement or Warsh’s press conference suggests that the Fed views price risks as manageable and, above all, temporary, a correction in the USD is certainly possible."

"After all, it is unlikely that Warsh will adopt an extremely hawkish stance given the recent drop in energy prices and a surprisingly low June inflation rate."

"Consequently, upward pressure on the US dollar driven by rising expectations of interest rate hikes is also unlikely."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The AUD/USD pair attracts sellers for the third straight day on Wednesday and dives to an over two-week trough following the release of softer Australian consumer inflation figures. Spot prices, however, rebound a few pips from the Asian session low and currently trade just above mid-0.6900s, still down around 0.25% for the day.

The US Dollar (USD) remains on the back foot below the monthly high, touched on Tuesday, as bulls opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the crucial FOMC policy decision, due later today. This, in turn, offers some support to the AUD/USD pair. However, a fresh escalation of tensions between the US and Iran revives inflation fears. This, in turn, bolstered bets for at least one rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026, which favors USD bulls and backs the case for further depreciation for the currency pair.

From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 0.7000 psychological mark and the latest leg down below the 0.6965-0.6960 confluence support could be seen as a key trigger for AUD/USD bears. The said area marked the lower boundary of a two-week-old range and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent move up from a multi-month low, touched in June. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 38, hinting at lingering downside pressure.

Moreover, the slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) suggests that bearish momentum is present but not accelerating decisively. Moreover, an intraday resilience below the 50% retracement level makes it prudent to wait for some follow-through selling below the daily swing low, around the 0.6935 region, before placing fresh bearish bets on the AUD/USD pair. If selling extends, spot prices could fall to the 61.8% level at 0.6926 as traders await the FOMC decision.

Meanwhile, a deeper slide would expose the 78.6% retracement at 0.6898 and the structural floor at 0.6863, levels that could attract dip-buying interest should the current bearish bias persist.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

AUD/USD 4-hour chart

Australian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies this week. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.05%0.25%-0.15%0.02%0.64%0.22%0.15%EUR0.05%0.28%-0.09%0.06%0.69%0.26%0.19%GBP-0.25%-0.28%-0.48%-0.21%0.42%-0.01%-0.08%JPY0.15%0.09%0.48%0.14%0.76%0.35%0.19%CAD-0.02%-0.06%0.21%-0.14%0.59%0.21%0.13%AUD-0.64%-0.69%-0.42%-0.76%-0.59%-0.42%-0.49%NZD-0.22%-0.26%0.01%-0.35%-0.21%0.42%-0.07%CHF-0.15%-0.19%0.08%-0.19%-0.13%0.49%0.07% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

Gold – Chart Gold is forming a big symmetrical triangle with price currently sitting around $4,034 after bouncing off the rising trendline near $4,011. Nonetheless, the price remains below the 50-EMA ($4,058) and 100-EMA ($4,071), suggesting that the overall short-term trend is bearish. The RSI is recovering to around 43, which indicates that bearish momentum is slowing down, but bulls are not yet in charge.

Resistance is immediately at $4,066, followed by $4,114 and $4,166. Support is held at $4,011, followed by $3,959 and $3,913.

Gold is neutral as long as it trades within the triangle. A break above $4,066 would increase the likelihood of a move towards $4,114 and $4,166, whereas a break below $4,011 would open up the possibility of a drop towards $3,959.

Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Triangle Support Holds as Bulls Attempt Recovery

Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 486.01 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the SAR 486.25 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold was broadly steady at SAR 5,668.74 per tola from SAR 5,671.56 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

486.01

10 Grams

4,860.11

Tola

5,668.74

Troy Ounce

15,116.67

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 35,946.63 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 35,991.97 it cost on Tuesday.

The price for Gold decreased to PKR 419,265.20 per tola from PKR 419,803.30 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

35,946.63

10 Grams

359,465.50

Tola

419,265.20

Troy Ounce

1,118,090.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

British Pound gains ground as US Dollar struggles ahead of Fed decisionGBP/USD edges higher after remaining flat in the previous day, trading around 1.3300 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) struggles ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming policy decision.

While the central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, traders are currently pricing in an unusually high 30.5% chance of an immediate rate hike, signaling notable uncertainty ahead of the announcement. Looking further ahead, markets are factoring in a 76.6% probability of a rate increase in September, reinforcing expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated for longer. Read more...

British Pound Sterling waits on a forecast the tape has already outrunThe Pound spends Tuesday almost perfectly still, trading just under 1.3300 with a session range under 40 pips between a floor above 1.3250 and a ceiling fractionally above 1.3300. That is a second consecutive day of near-total inertia beneath a shelf that took three weeks of defence to break, and it arrives with two central bank decisions and the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge all landing inside three days.

Inertia this deep into a week that heavy is not indecision so much as a verdict, and the verdict is that Sterling is not the variable being solved for. The Dollar Index sits near a five-week high, the front end of the American curve still carries a live hike tail into Wednesday, and the British contribution this week is a document nobody expects to change the rate. Read more...

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Trades vulnerably near 1.3300 ahead of Fed-BoE policyThe British Pound (GBP) trades with caution at around 1.3300 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair is marginally higher, but is broadly under pressure, with investors turning cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday.

Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and warn of upside inflation risks. However, United States (US) President Donald Trump said on Monday that Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh should lower interest rates, adding that there was a good inflation report recently, costs were falling rapidly, and that prices should drop significantly once the Gulf War ends. Read more...

Gold (XAU/USD) enters a bearish consolidation phase after touching an over one-week low during the Asian session on Wednesday, though it manages to hold above the $4,000 psychological mark. A softer tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD) offers some support to the precious metal. However, a fresh escalation of tensions between the US and Iran should limit the downside for the Greenback. Furthermore, traders might opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting for more cues about the path of US interest rates, which will influence the USD demand and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launched a surprise attack and targeted US forces in the Middle East with multiple ballistic missiles late Tuesday. All Iranian missiles were successfully intercepted, the US Central Command (Centcom) said in a post on X, and added that US forces remain vigilant and at a high state of readiness. In a subsequent statement, Centcom said that the US and Saudi forces struck multiple terrorist logistics and weapons sites in eastern Iraq, retaliating against more than 30 drone attacks in the past three days by Iran-aligned terrorists.

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump once again warned that the US will return to strong military action against Iran and target key Iranian infrastructure if diplomatic efforts do not bring a rapid resolution to the crisis. This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the safe-haven USD. Adding to this, concerns about significant disruptions to global energy supplies trigger a sharp recovery in crude oil prices, reviving inflation fears and bolstering bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US central bank. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis fired missiles at a Saudi oil tanker for violating the maritime navigation ban imposed on Saudi vessels.

This comes on top of the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz and helps crude oil prices to stage a goodish recovery from an over two-week low, touched on Tuesday. The fundamental backdrop validates the near-term positive outlook for the USD, warranting some caution before positioning for any meaningful appreciation in the Gold price.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical analysis: Gold’s bearish setup backs the case for further near-term depreciationThe recent range-bound price action since June 19 might be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a breakdown below a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, the wide gap between spot and this longer-term SMA suggests the broader trend remains under pressure despite some recent stabilization.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 43 and keeps momentum in mildly negative territory. That said, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) edges higher and hints at a tentative recovery attempt within a still-depressed structure. Hence, any attempted recovery might continue to face an immediate hurdle near the $4,050 level.

Further up, the top boundary of the trading range near $4,200 should act as a key barrier to beat. A daily close above this would be needed to ease the broader bearish bias and open the door to a more sustainable advance to the 200-day SMA at $4,493.65.

On the downside, the $4,000 mark, followed by the $3,965 region, or the lower end of the trading range, could offer some support to the commodity. Nevertheless, the XAU/USD pair remains vulnerable to further slippage unless buyers can build a base above the said support levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

TL;DR: Australia’s soft CPI print has pushed all four major banks into agreement that the RBA’s tightening cycle is over for now, driving AUD/USD below its rising channel with 0.6750 emerging as the next major support cluster.

Why This CPI Print Changes the Story Australia’s softer inflation report is more than just another downside CPI surprise — it marks the point where markets concluded the RBA’s tightening cycle has effectively run its course. That shift in policy expectations triggered a sharp decline in AUD/USD, but its implications extend well beyond Wednesday’s trading session. With expectations for further RBA tightening fading rapidly, the Australian dollar is losing one of its few remaining domestic pillars of support.

What the Data Actually Showed The inflation data itself offered little justification for another near-term rate increase. Headline CPI slowed from 4.0% to 3.8% y/y in June, while trimmed mean inflation was unchanged at 3.6%. Quarterly figures echoed the same trend, with headline inflation easing from 4.1% to 3.8% and trimmed mean inflation rising only modestly from 3.5% to 3.6%.

The most important detail, however, was how those figures compared with the RBA’s own expectations. Both the monthly and quarterly trimmed mean measures came in below the central bank’s May forecast of 3.8%. That outcome effectively validated Governor Michele Bullock’s remarks on Tuesday that underlying inflation had evolved broadly as expected since May — while also hinting the disinflation process may be progressing slightly faster than policymakers themselves anticipated.

Westpac’s Reversal Seals a Rare Bank Consensus The biggest surprise came from Westpac. Until Wednesday, it had been the only one of Australia’s Big Four banks still forecasting another rate hike in August. Following the CPI release, Westpac abandoned that call, now expecting the RBA to remain on hold for the rest of 2026 — leaving open only a conditional risk of a November hike should inflation reaccelerate sharply during the third quarter.

That revision carries significance beyond a single economist’s forecast. For the first time this tightening cycle, all four major Australian banks are united in expecting the RBA to leave policy unchanged through year-end based on current information. That consensus reinforces the perception that Australia’s monetary tightening phase has probably ended — unless a fresh inflation shock, such as another sustained surge in oil prices, materializes.

Where the Risk Shifts Now: The Fed and Asian Equities Attention therefore shifts away from Australia and toward global developments. Domestically, the policy story is largely settled for now. Externally, however, AUD/USD still faces several potentially bearish catalysts.

The first is the Federal Reserve, with the FOMC rate decision scheduled for today. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan are widely expected to vote in favor of another rate increase. If additional FOMC members also dissent, markets would likely interpret the outcome as a more hawkish signal than currently anticipated — supporting higher Treasury yields and extending the Dollar’s recent strength. The second is regional risk sentiment. Asian equity markets remain fragile despite Wednesday’s brief rebound. Renewed selling in technology shares has already pushed the KOSPI roughly 17% lower this week, while pressure continues to build across the broader AI sector. Given the Australian dollar’s strong correlation with Asian equity performance and global growth expectations, a deeper regional correction could reinforce downside momentum. ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/USD The technical picture has already begun reflecting that deteriorating backdrop. AUD/USD broke decisively below its short-term rising channel after once again failing to overcome the falling 55 D EMA near 0.7004. The price action strongly suggests the rebound from 0.6864 ended at 0.7026 as merely a corrective recovery within the broader decline from 0.7277.

As long as rallies remain capped below the 55 4H EMA around 0.6981, the path of least resistance remains lower. A retest of 0.6864 should be seen next, with a sustained break opening the way toward the 61.8% projection of 0.7277 to 0.6864 from 0.7026, at 0.6771. That level sits just above a major medium-term Fibonacci support — the 38.2% retracement of 0.5913 to 0.7277, at 0.6756 — creating a critical support cluster around 0.6750.

Whether buyers are prepared to defend that area should decide whether the broader uptrend from 0.5913 remains intact or gives way to a much deeper medium-term decline.

Key Takeaways Australia’s Q2 trimmed mean CPI came in below the RBA’s own 3.8% May forecast, validating Bullock’s “evolving as expected” framing. Westpac abandoned its lone August hike call, leaving all four major Australian banks aligned on an RBA hold through year-end. Today’s FOMC decision and continued Asian equity weakness (KOSPI down ~17% this week) are now the dominant risks for AUD/USD, not domestic policy. AUD/USD broke its short-term rising channel after failing at the 55 D EMA (0.7004), with the 0.6864–0.7026 rebound now viewed as corrective. 0.6750 is the key support cluster to watch — a break opens a deeper medium-term decline; holding it keeps the broader uptrend from 0.5913 intact.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.