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MUFG's Derek Halpenny notes that the British Pound (GBP) has been the strongest G10 currency after the US Dollar (USD) since the Middle East conflict began, with attention now on the Bank of England’s (BoE) July decision. Halpenny expects the BoE to stay on hold but sees inflation and energy risks keeping rate hike pricing intact, supporting GBP as FX volatility remains remarkably low and market conditions favourable.

BoE on hold but risks tilted higher"The pound remains the top performing G10 currency after the US dollar since the conflict in the Middle East began at the end of February and following the FOMC decision last night, the focus shifts today to the BoE policy decision."

"There is nothing priced for today and hence the issue for the markets will be the vote, the communication in the statement, the minutes and the updated forecasts in the Monetary Policy Report. So there’s a lot of information to get through but ultimately the take-away is likely to be that the MPC remains somewhat divided with some concerned over inflation pass-through from energy and others less concerned given the relatively weak domestic economic conditions."

"A September hike is priced at a little over 50% while a hike is fully priced by November, so the rates market is more priced for some signs of increased concerns shifting the MPC toward a hike."

"For market rates to move higher and the pound to advance in response to today’s meeting we will need to see increased conviction on a September rate hike. We expect the multi-scenario approach to be abandoned with a return to a single set of forecasts but accompanied with some risks."

"We expect the pound to remain well supported at these levels on the assumption that pricing for a September rate hike holds up given the rising external inflation risks."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The USD/JPY pair trades 0.1% higher at around 163.60 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) regains ground due to intensifying military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.2% higher to near 101.00.

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.17%0.21%0.10%0.04%0.04%-0.19%0.24%EUR-0.17%0.03%-0.07%-0.14%-0.15%-0.38%0.07%GBP-0.21%-0.03%-0.09%-0.17%-0.17%-0.40%0.06%JPY-0.10%0.07%0.09%-0.07%-0.06%-0.31%0.17%CAD-0.04%0.14%0.17%0.07%0.00%-0.23%0.23%AUD-0.04%0.15%0.17%0.06%-0.00%-0.22%0.23%NZD0.19%0.38%0.40%0.31%0.23%0.22%0.49%CHF-0.24%-0.07%-0.06%-0.17%-0.23%-0.23%-0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

On Wednesday, the US Dollar fell vertically after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement, in which it left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and warned of upside inflation risks. Three of 12 rate-setting members dissented from the vote and voted for a 25-basis point (bps) interest rate hike.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said in the press conference that policymakers are committed to bringing inflation down and won’t hesitate to act when necessary. However, market experts doubt the Fed’s commitment.

Commerzbank’s Michael Pfister highlights that Chairman Kevin Warsh “made it clear that there is no soft inflation target and that the focus is firmly on delivering two percent,” reinforcing the Fed’s commitment to its goal. Yet Pfister notes that Warsh “sidestepped every question about how he intends to achieve this,” offering little guidance on the policy path. Commerzbank argues that, given this approach to communication, “it should come as no surprise that the US Dollar took a hit.”

On the Japanese Yen (JPY) front, investors await the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy meeting, which is scheduled for Friday, after the release of Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July the same day.

Analysts at Commerzbank expect the BoJ to "leave its overnight call rate unchanged" at Friday’s monetary policy meeting, noting that "the market is pricing this in at 99.3%, and all analysts surveyed by Bloomberg agree." As a result, "that won’t be the deciding factor." Instead, the focus is on the policy message. Commerzbank argues that "a slightly hawkish tone – one that seriously brings October into play – could therefore be enough to surprise the market and support the Japanese yen." By contrast, "if, on the other hand, the same boilerplate language as usual is used, the yen is likely to hit new lows against the US dollar."

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades higher at around 163.56, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 162.84. The pair continues to advance in a well-supported uptrend, with the EMA reinforcing underlying demand just beneath current levels.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.06 sits in positive territory but shy of overbought, hinting that upward momentum remains constructive without yet showing signs of exhaustion.

Analysts at Societe Generale note that USD/JPY continues to trade within a contained range, with nearby technical markers clearly defined. They highlight "support 162.20, resistance 164.40" as the key levels currently framing price action.

As the whole atmosphere delivers positive vibes, the pair could extend its advance towards 165.00 if it manages a decisive break above the 164.40 hurdle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY.

Read more.

Next release: Fri Jul 31, 2026 03:00

Frequency: Irregular

Consensus: 1%

Previous: 1%

Source: Bank of Japan

Pound-Euro could remain under pressure if the Bank of England maintains a cautious outlook while stronger Eurozone data supports the single currency. The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Wednesday near a four-week low as investors awaited Thursday's Bank of England interest rate decision and key Eurozone economic data.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading around €1.1672, having recovered modestly from an earlier 26-day low of €1.1660.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.16603 (+0.03%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335352 (-0.10%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.145213 (-0.13%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) remained subdued as a quiet UK economic calendar and caution ahead of the Bank of England's policy announcement discouraged investors from taking fresh positions.

Although policymakers are widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, uncertainty remains over how the Bank will respond to recent volatility in global energy markets and the potential implications for inflation.

This kept Sterling on the defensive as markets awaited further guidance from the Bank later in the week.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) also traded in a relatively narrow range amid a lack of fresh Eurozone economic data.

With few immediate catalysts, investors instead turned their attention to Thursday's preliminary Eurozone GDP figures and Germany's latest inflation data, both of which could shape expectations for European Central Bank policy.

As a result, trading in the single currency remained subdued through Wednesday's session.

Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: Eurozone GDP and BoE Decision to Dent the Pairing? Looking ahead, Thursday is expected to provide fresh direction for the Pound to Euro exchange rate.

The Euro could strengthen if preliminary second-quarter GDP figures point to a rebound in Eurozone economic growth.

Later in the day, Germany's flash inflation figures for July could provide additional support for the single currency if price pressures accelerate ahead of Friday's Eurozone CPI release.

For Sterling, attention will centre on the Bank of England's interest rate decision.

While no policy changes are expected, investors will closely scrutinise the Bank's guidance. If policymakers continue to emphasise caution over further interest rate hikes amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, the Pound could remain under pressure.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The USD/CAD pair trades in positive territory near 1.4050 during the early European session on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens against the Canadian Dollar (CAD) on hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (Q2) is due later in the day. 

The Fed decided to leave the Federal Funds Rate unchanged in its current target range between 3.50% and 3.75% at its July policy meeting on Wednesday, as widely expected. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari dissented in favor of raising rates by 25 basis points (bps). Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh said during the press conference that the committee will be quick to act if inflation pressures accelerate.  

On the other hand, renewed military escalation in the Middle East could boost crude oil prices and provide some support to the commodity-linked CAD. It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/CAD holds above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the lower Bollinger Band, keeping a constructive bullish bias while consolidating after the recent advance. Price is just under the Bollinger middle band, suggesting near-term upside is being tested, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44 remains neutral, hinting at a pause rather than a reversal in trend.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the Bollinger middle band at 1.4110, followed by the upper band around 1.4225, where buying pressure could start to fade. On the downside, initial support is seen in the 1.4000-1.3995 zone, representing the psychological level and the lower Bollinger Band. The next contention level is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.3900, a deeper structural floor that should underpin the broader uptrend as long as it holds.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Canada Dollar support capped as trade tensions and tariff threat persistStrategists at Scotiabank caution that, despite an improvement in underlying fundamentals, the Canada Dollar “may still struggle to gain support as trade tensions linger.” They highlight ongoing uncertainty around the tariff backdrop, noting that PM Carney has signalled a firm stance, with Canada “weighing all options for possible retaliation if there is no agreement to avoid 50% tariffs next month.” This combination of unresolved trade risks and the prospect of retaliatory measures is seen as a key factor limiting further CAD upside against the USD in the near term.

Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.

The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.

While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.

Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

Key takeawaysGold trades near the $4,050–4,070 participation zone after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged and shifted market attention toward the consistency of future policy decisions.Treasury yields, the US Dollar and portfolio allocation remain the principal transmission channels connecting central bank communication with gold participation.Today's US GDP and Core PCE releases provide the next macro validation point following the Federal Reserve meeting and may reinforce or reshape the market's interpretation of yesterday's policy message.The Renko chart remains in a confirmed Compression regime, reflecting balanced participation as investors evaluate the next stage of the macro sequence.Gold enters a new phase of policy assessmentGold begins Thursday's session with financial markets moving beyond the Federal Reserve decision itself and focusing on the credibility of the policy framework communicated yesterday.

The Federal Open Market Committee kept interest rates unchanged, a result that broadly matched market expectations. Investors concentrated on the statement, Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference and the implications for the policy path during the second half of the year. Reuters reports that market participants interpreted the communication as maintaining the commitment to controlling inflation while providing limited forward guidance, leading traders to reassess the probability of additional tightening later this year.

Attention now shifts toward today's US GDP and Core PCE releases.

These reports represent the first opportunity for markets to evaluate whether incoming macroeconomic data remain aligned with the Federal Reserve's assessment of growth, inflation and financial conditions.

Gold therefore enters a different stage of the policy cycle.

Yesterday focused on communication.

Today focuses on validation.

Policy credibility shapes macro convictionGold continues functioning as the market's primary macro credibility asset.

Every central bank decision influences financial markets through several interconnected transmission channels before reaching portfolio allocation.

The current sequence develops through:

Fed communication.Policy credibility.Macro validation.Portfolio allocation.Gold participation.This framework extends beyond interest-rate expectations alone.

Institutional investors continuously evaluate whether monetary policy, economic activity and inflation remain internally consistent. Treasury markets, currency markets and reserve allocation all contribute to that assessment.

The Federal Reserve therefore establishes the initial framework, while incoming macroeconomic data determine whether markets reinforce that interpretation or gradually construct a different policy narrative.

The reaction following Wednesday's meeting illustrates this process. Treasury yields and the US Dollar adjusted as investors reassessed future policy expectations, while gold stabilized as markets absorbed the new information. Reuters notes that expectations for a September rate increase moderated following Chair Warsh's comments, supporting a modest recovery in gold prices.

The discussion has also broadened inside the Federal Open Market Committee. The Wall Street Journal highlights that three officials voted in favor of a rate increase, reinforcing the presence of differing views regarding inflation risks and future policy.

Today's macro data extend the transmission processThursday's calendar continues the policy sequence established by the Federal Reserve.

Advance GDP will provide an updated assessment of economic momentum.

Core PCE remains the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure and represents an important reference for evaluating underlying price dynamics.

Together these releases help determine whether yesterday's communication remains consistent with incoming macroeconomic evidence.

The Bank of England's policy decision adds another layer to the global macro picture by influencing relative interest-rate expectations, exchange-rate dynamics and international capital allocation.

Gold frequently reflects these cross-market adjustments because institutional portfolios continuously compare monetary policy across the major central banks.

Reserve allocation continues supporting the broader structureShort-term participation remains heavily influenced by macroeconomic releases.

The longer-term structure continues reflecting reserve diversification and institutional demand for high-quality monetary assets.

Central banks remain active participants in the gold market as reserve managers continue evaluating currency diversification alongside fiscal, geopolitical and monetary developments.

This structural demand provides an important foundation beneath shorter-term fluctuations generated by economic releases and monetary policy communication.

Gold therefore maintains its role as a macro barometer connecting central bank credibility with institutional allocation decisions.

Technical structureThe Renko chart illustrates a market that has transitioned from event anticipation toward macro validation.

Following the Federal Reserve meeting, gold briefly recovered toward the $4,100 area before returning to the $4,050–4,070 participation zone, where price is currently rotating around the EMA200, positioned near $4,067.

The EMA9 and EMA21 have flattened considerably, indicating that short-term participation has become increasingly balanced as investors evaluate the next macro catalyst.

Gold remains in a confirmed Compression regime as investors validate the Federal Reserve's policy message through Treasury yields, the US Dollar and today's key US macroeconomic data.The most important technical signal comes from the ECRO, which currently reads 0.0 with Delta ECRO also at 0.0, confirming a fully developed Compression regime.

This configuration reflects an environment where directional participation has largely paused while institutional positioning awaits additional macro confirmation.

The stochastic oscillator has rotated back toward oversold territory, illustrating softer momentum alongside selective participation rather than broad liquidation.

Immediate support continues developing around $4,050, followed by the broader structural participation zone near $4,025–4,000.

Initial resistance remains near $4,100, while sustained acceptance above the EMA200 would strengthen attention toward $4,125 and $4,150.

The technical structure remains fully consistent with a market waiting for confirmation from today's GDP and Core PCE releases before expanding participation.

Bird's eye viewMarket regime: Policy Validation

Macro sequence: Fed Communication → Policy Credibility → Macro Validation → Portfolio Allocation → Gold Participation.

Participation zone: $4,050–4,070.

Primary resistance: $4,100–4,125.

Structural support: $4,025–4,000.

Market state: Compression.

Macro anchors: Federal Reserve · GDP · Core PCE · Treasury Yields · US Dollar · Reserve Allocation.

OutlookGold enters the second half of the week's macro sequence with attention shifting from central bank communication toward macroeconomic confirmation.

The Federal Reserve has established the current policy framework.

Today's GDP and Core PCE releases will determine how confidently investors continue allocating capital within that framework.

The Renko structure reflects this transition through a confirmed Compression regime centred around the EMA200, where participation remains balanced while markets evaluate the next stage of the macro transmission process. Treasury yields, the US Dollar and incoming economic data now form the principal channels connecting yesterday's policy decision with the next move in gold participation.

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 488.15 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 491.05 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,693.79 per tola from SAR 5,727.46 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

488.15

10 Grams

4,881.57

Tola

5,693.79

Troy Ounce

15,183.37

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 477.88 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 480.32 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,573.80 per tola from AED 5,602.37 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

477.88

10 Grams

4,778.65

Tola

5,573.80

Troy Ounce

14,863.47

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 532.68 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 534.61 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,213.14 per tola from MYR 6,235.60 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

532.68

10 Grams

5,326.90

Tola

6,213.14

Troy Ounce

16,568.31

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 187.20 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of the shorter EMA above the longer one reinforces the constructive tone.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 64.1 stays below overbought territory, suggesting that upside momentum remains firm but not yet overstretched. However, the daily chart technical analysis shows that the EUR/JPY cross is moving upwards within an ascending channel, indicating a strong bullish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross may test the initial resistance at the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 187.60. A successful break above the channel could support the currency cross to target the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

On the downside, the EUR/JPY cross faces its primary support at the nine-day EMA of 186.52. Additional technical buffers lie just below, including the lower boundary of the rising wedge pattern near 185.70 and the 50-day EMA at 185.49, forming a tight confluence support zone. A decisive break below this critical area could trigger a bearish shift, putting notable downward pressure on the currency cross. If sellers gain control, the price may navigate toward the five-month low of 181.87, with further losses potentially targeting the seven-month low at 180.81.

EUR/JPY: Daily ChartYen edges higher as markets await FOMC and BoJ decisionsStrategists at Scotiabank note that the Japanese Yen is holding a modest bid ahead of key central bank events, with the currency “up a fractional 0.1% vs. the USD but outperforming most of the G10 currencies in overall quiet trade as markets look to both the 2pm ET FOMC and the July 31 BoJ policy decision.” They highlight that the backdrop remains subdued, but positioning reflects a cautious tone as investors balance near-term Dollar dynamics against the upcoming BoJ meeting.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.16%0.19%0.05%0.04%0.07%-0.19%0.22%EUR-0.16%0.02%-0.09%-0.12%-0.11%-0.36%0.06%GBP-0.19%-0.02%-0.11%-0.15%-0.13%-0.37%0.07%JPY-0.05%0.09%0.11%-0.01%0.02%-0.25%0.20%CAD-0.04%0.12%0.15%0.01%0.04%-0.23%0.21%AUD-0.07%0.11%0.13%-0.02%-0.04%-0.24%0.17%NZD0.19%0.36%0.37%0.25%0.23%0.24%0.47%CHF-0.22%-0.06%-0.07%-0.20%-0.21%-0.17%-0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $57.90 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. However, Silver prices gained following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest monetary policy decision, supported by expectations that other major central banks will follow a similar path.

During its July meeting, the Fed opted to leave rates steady in the 3.5%–3.75% range despite growing inflationary pressures tied to renewed conflict in the Middle East. This decision provided underlying support to Silver, as elevated borrowing costs typically dampen demand for non-yielding assets. Both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold this week while maintaining a cautious stance on inflation.

Despite the status quo, internal disagreement was evident within the Federal Open Market Committee. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, and Minneapolis Fed Chief Neel Kashkari all dissented, advocating instead for a 25-basis-point rate increase. In his post-meeting press conference, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reinforced a firm tone, noting that while the central bank will refrain from offering explicit forward guidance on future rate adjustments, it remains committed to using all necessary tools to bring inflation back to its 2% target.

The Fed Monetary Policy Statement scores 7.4/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, a clear hawkish tilt relative to the historical average of 4.9/10. By holding the key overnight rate at 3.50%-3.75% while stressing elevated inflation, solid economic activity, and strong productivity and investment, the Fed signals confidence in growth and a firm commitment to price stability. The 9-3 split vote, with three presidents favoring a 25-basis-point hike, underscores latent tightening bias that is supportive of the Dollar on a medium-term horizon.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-elevated 128.64, confirming that the overall policy tone remains firmly in hawkish territory. The combination of a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index level and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests the Fed continues to lean toward restrictive policy, a backdrop that should keep Dollar dips relatively shallow against the Euro and Yen.

Meanwhile, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to influence global markets. President Donald Trump pledged a decisive response following a recent attack on US forces in Jordan. Diplomatic efforts remain stalled as both sides struggle to reach a compromise, largely due to Tehran’s insistence on retaining control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Gold is back in the red early Thursday, after failing to sustain above $4,100 for the fourth time this week.

Gold faces headwinds as Mideast tensions re-eruptGold is fading its recent upswing as the US Dollar (USD) attracts dip-buying amid a revival of haven demand as the United States (US) launched fresh strikes on Iran this Wednesday.

The US Central Command said on X that it completed its “heavy wave of strikes” against Iran, hitting the south-western Iranian city of Abadan as well as Qeshm Island.

The US military said, “the strikes were in response to Iran’s attempted missile attacks on US forces in the region and “aimed to further diminish threats posed by Iran and its proxies to American forces, commercial shipping, and neighboring Gulf countries.”

Although Oil prices are little inspired by the renewed hostilities in the Middle East after a pause over the weekend, Gold buyers trade with caution as inflation fears persist following a 6.50% rally in the black gold a day ago.

On Wednesday, Gold saw two-way business after the Fed decided to hold the Fed funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, widely expected, with an unexpected hawkish 9-3 vote in favor of such a verdict.   

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, moving 0.00 points to a still-hawkish level of 128.64, confirming that the statement leaves the broader policy tone firmly in tightening territory. The combination of a high FXS Fed Sentiment Index reading and an above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score suggests the Fed remains a hawkish anchor for the Dollar, even without an immediate rate move.

However, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s non-committal stance on further tightening raised uncertainty about whether the Fed can keep long-term inflation expectations anchored and also if a rate hike remains on the table for the September meeting.

Markets are now pricing in roughly a 35% chance that the Fed will hold rates again in September, up from 24% seen a day before, the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows.

These concerns weighed heavily on the USD, fuelling a sharp correction from close to three-month highs and keeping the Gold price rebound intact.

Looking ahead, the US advance second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP, expectations around the Fed’s policy outlook and Middle East geopolitical developments will continue to drive market sentiment, USD dynamics and Gold price action.

 The US economy will likely expand by 2.1% on an annualized basis in Q2 2026, at the same pace seen in the previous quarter.

Alongside the US GDP report, Gold traders will also pay attention to the US Jobless Claims and the annual core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,053.13, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath all the major simple moving averages (SMAs). The 21-day SMA at $4,073.46 forms immediate overhead resistance, while the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $4,193.29, $4,435.77 and $4,490.68 respectively reinforce a broader topside cap. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 46.00 sits just below neutral territory, hinting at subdued downside momentum rather than an outright oversold condition.

On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA around $4,073, followed by the 50-day SMA near $4,193. Above these, the 100-day SMA at roughly $4,436 and the 200-day SMA close to $4,491 outline a dense medium-term barrier that gold would need to reclaim to shift the technical tone. With no clearly defined nearby support levels in the dataset, any retest of recent lows would likely leave price action driven by momentum and order flow until a fresh structural base emerges.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Key Highlights

USD/CHF gained strength for a move above 0.8150. A rising channel is forming with support at 0.8170 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD is now at risk of a move below 1.1350. Gold prices declined and traded below the $4,065 support. USD/CHF Technical Analysis The US Dollar remained well-bid above 0.8080 against the Swiss Franc. USD/CHF started a fresh increase above 0.8120 and 0.8150.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 0.8150, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There was a clear move above the 1.236 Fib extension level of the downward move from the 0.8150 swing high to the 0.8032 low.

There is also a rising channel forming with support at 0.8170. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 0.8200. The next major resistance might be 0.8220 or the 1.618 Fib extension level.

A close above 0.8220 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 0.8265. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 0.8300.

If there is a downside correction, the pair could find bids near the channel support. The next major support could be near 0.8150. The main support might be 0.8100 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).

A downside break and close below 0.8100 might send the pair toward 0.8050. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 0.8000.

Looking at Gold, the price is again moving lower, and the bears could aim for a move below $3,950 in the near term.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

US Gross Domestic Product for Q2 2026 (Preliminary) – Forecast 2.1% versus previous 2.1%. US Personal Income for June 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.7% previous. US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 200K, versus 187K previous.

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Fed-driven breakout confronts resistance near 1.1480 Relative growth likely to determine EUR/USD's next directional move US consumer spending data may prove more important than core PCE Middle East tensions complicate EUR/USD breakout above resistance EUR/USD jumped on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, prompting traders to unwind the tightening that had been priced into the front end of the US rates curve ahead of the decision. The resulting decline helped the pair break above the minor downtrend it had been trading beneath since the middle of July.

However, before traders consider chasing the move, seeking a breakout of the broader sideways range EUR/USD has been stuck in for the past six weeks, it's worth asking whether there has really been a meaningful shift in the macro backdrop. With geopolitical tensions escalating once again, energy prices surging and month-end flows potentially distorting price action, there are plenty of reasons to question whether Wednesday's move tells the full story.

Front-end repricing lifts EUR/USD

Source: TradingView

The correlation matrix above does a good job explaining why EUR/USD rallied following the Fed decision. Ahead of the meeting, overnight index swaps had priced around nine basis points of tightening into the front end of the US rates curve, implying roughly a one-in-three chance of a 25 basis point rate hike. When that failed to eventuate, traders unwound those expectations, sending front-end Treasury yields sharply lower. Given the close relationship between EUR/USD and front-end US rate pricing over the past month, the euro's rally was exactly what market mechanics would have suggested.

Source: TradingView

The bigger question is whether that move has much further to run. Despite the Fed opting to keep policy unchanged, overnight index swaps continue to price around 50 basis points of tightening by the June meeting next year. That suggests markets still believe the Committee will ultimately have to do more if it is to restore price stability.

For now, Kevin Warsh is still getting the benefit of the doubt from traders. His preference is clearly to let markets do much of the heavy lifting by adjusting broader financial conditions in response to incoming data rather than explicit forward guidance. As things stand, markets are doing exactly that, continuing to price a meaningful amount of additional tightening.

But that approach has a finite lifespan. If markets eventually move to fully price another rate hike, or more, and the Fed again declines to deliver, strategic uncertainty will start looking less like a deliberate policy tool and more like reluctance to adjust policy settings.

Source: TradingView

If that were to take place, it would be terminal for the US dollar as traders rightfully question the Fed's inflation-fighting credentials. But for now, with meaningful tightening priced into the curve, it questions how long the current bout of US dollar weakness can be sustained.

Relative growth comes into focus Attention now shifts to a heavy run of economic data from both sides of the Atlantic. While Germany's inflation report will attract attention ahead of tomorrow's euro area CPI release, today's bigger story for EUR/USD is likely to be growth.

Source: TradingView

Markets expect the euro area economy to have expanded by 0.2% in the June quarter, which, barring revisions, would lift annual growth to 0.5%. In the United States, GDP is forecast to increase at a seasonally adjusted annualised rate of 2.1%, matching the pace seen in the first quarter. While the preliminary US GDP report relies on several assumptions and is subject to revision, history suggests it can still be a notable market mover.

While June core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, will also be released during today's session, it rarely surprises nowadays given economists can forecast it with a high degree of confidence using the CPI and PPI reports released earlier in the month. As such, greater attention is likely to fall on the personal income and spending data, providing fresh evidence on whether the resilience in US consumer spending can continue. With households continuing to underpin economic growth, any signs income growth is slowing or the savings rate is falling further would raise questions about how much longer consumers can continue carrying the economy.

Ultimately, for EUR/USD, it's the relative growth picture that matters. Any meaningful deviation from expectations on either side of the Atlantic has the potential to shift interest rate expectations and, by extension, the direction of the pair.

Until those releases arrive, the technical picture provides the clearest guide to the levels worth watching.

Bulls confront the next hurdle

Source: TradingView

More broadly, EUR/USD has been rangebound since the middle of June, capped by resistance around 1.1480, with bids repeatedly emerging around 1.1364 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2025 to January 2026 bull move at 1.1355. Sellers tested that support zone earlier this week but failed, paving the way for the pair to break above the minor downtrend that had capped rallies since the middle of July.

EUR/USD now sits back near the top of that broader range. Resistance around 1.1480 is reinforced by the 50-day simple moving average sitting just above. Should price break convincingly through both, 1.1500 is the next level to watch. Beyond that, attention shifts to the longer-term downtrend, currently found just above 1.1550, with the 100-day simple moving average also located nearby. That creates what looks like a formidable resistance zone, especially if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East remain elevated.

On the downside, having broken above the July downtrend, the former resistance line becomes initial support. It sits around 1.1400 today. Below that, attention shifts back to the top of the broader support zone at 1.1364, followed by the late June swing low of 1.1325.

Momentum indicators offer little conviction either way. RSI (14) has pushed back above the neutral 50 level but sits at only 55, while MACD has crossed above the signal line but remains negative. Taken together, they point to neutral rather than directional momentum.

Beyond technicals, my gut feel is that EUR/USD may struggle to deliver a sustained break above 1.1480 unless we see a meaningful improvement in the geopolitical backdrop or today's data materially weaken the US dollar.

The GBP/JPY advances by over 0.30%, rising above 218.00, as risk appetite improves amid overall US Dollar weakness following the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision. The pair trades near 218.50 after hitting a low of the day (LOD) of 217.16.

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe cross-pair was headed to extend its losses after reaching a ten-day low. However, the GBP/JPY followed the direction of the GBP/USD pair after the Fed’s decision.

Momentum favours further upside as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the upside, but a potential intervention in the FX markets by Japanese authorities could open the door for further downside.

For a bullish continuation, the first resistance for GBP/JPY would be the 219.00 psychological level. Above this area sits the confluence of the July 15 and 15 daily peaks at 219.57/61, followed by the 220.00 milestone.

On the downside, the first support is 218.00. A breach of the latter will expose the low of the day (LOD) at 217.16, followed by the April 30 daily high-turned-support at 216.60. Once hurdled, the next stop is the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.62.

GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily

GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Near the end of the session, the Japanese yen has started to show a slight recovery against the U.S. dollar. This movement is reflected in USD/JPY, which is down nearly -0.3% during the session.

Silver price clings to gains on Wednesday late in the North American session, as the Federal Reserve held rates unchanged, which, instead of strengthening the Dollar, weakened it, while US Treasury yields spiked. The XAG/USD trades at $57.17, barely unchanged.

XAG/USD steadies near $57.00 as Fed dissent, surging long-end yields and Dollar weakness drive choppy tradingThe Fed's monetary policy statement was barely changed. The central bank noted that the economy is growing steadily despite uncertainty stemming from the US-Iran war. The central bank revealed that productivity growth and capital investment are robust, further strengthening the jobs market.

Worth mentioning that the decision was split, with three dissenters led by the Cleveland Fed's Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan, who favoured a 25-basis-point rate hike. 

The press conference didn’t provide any remarks worth mentioning. Although the Fed Chair, Warsh, revealed that he’s committed to tackling inflation, he dodges the question of how the Fed will achieve its 2% goal. Meanwhile, the US 30-year Treasury yield spiked by more than 10 basis points to its highest level in almost 20 years, though it failed to boost the Greenback, which is tumbling over 0.40%, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY).

The DXY, which tracks the performance of the US Dollar against six currencies, is down at 100.93, after hitting a six-day low, despite the rise of US yields.

Ahead, the US economic docket will feature the final reading of Q2 2026 US GDP, the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver daily chartIn the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $57.15, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds well below the latest simple moving average cluster around $64.33 and under a series of descending trend-line resistances, including the more recent lines derived from the $78.83 and $77.02 peaks. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 41, hinting at subdued downside momentum, but with price compressed between immediate trend-line support near $55.98 and the overhead moving averages, the metal remains capped within a broader descending channel.

On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the former support trend line projected from $61.01, ahead of the confluence of the simple moving average triple and a descending trend-line break around $64–65, while a more significant supply zone emerges toward the $80.76 region associated with the longer-term downtrend from $96.62. On the downside, a clean drop through the nearby trend-line support at roughly $55.98 would expose lower levels and extend the prevailing bearish phase, whereas holding above this line could see XAG/USD attempt another corrective bounce back toward the clustered resistance band overhead.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

US Dollar Talking Points: Markets were pricing in approximately a one in three chance for a rate hike today, which did not end up happening. Despite FOMC Chair Kevin Warsh sounding hawkish by repeatedly saying that inflation must come down, the bank made no move to do so at today’s rate decision and, instead, we’re seeing many of the trades aligned with rate cuts coming off quickly. Keep in mind that the larger reaction to a meeting of this nature will often take days to play out, as what we’re seeing now is the initial reaction from rate hike bets and hedges in anticipation of such coming off.

The June rate decision prodded a rally in the Dollar and in response, markets were highly expecting the possibility of a rate hike at today’s July rate decision from the FOMC. As Kevin Warsh has said numerous times, inflation is, and has remained well above the Fed’s 2% target. This was even the case during rate cut campaigns in 2024 and 2025, with Core CPI never dipping below 2% through that time. To be sure, the Fed made other arguments as to why the rate moderation was necessary and we saw a likely reason for that back in March of 2023 as higher rates were starting to cause stress with regional banks in the US.

What the Fed says and what they do, however, aren’t always the same thing, and given how important FOMC messaging has become and how it was a vital tool in the bank’s management of the economy in the post-GFC backdrop, it makes sense as to why they might try to alter matters here.

But – the backdrop that Kevin Warsh is looking for may be a more volatile one, as the forward guidance and preparation for whatever move the Fed was looking to make taught market participants to rest easily on the leanings of the bank. And now they have to fend for themselves based on the incoming data.

As such there was a legitimate build of expectation for a rate hike today, despite the fact that inflation has actually eased of late. If there was an actual hike, I think the repercussions would be massive, as President Trump spent months during the nomination process teasing rate cuts, even going as far as to say a willingness to cut rates was a ‘litmus test’ for whomever he ultimately selected. If Kevin Warsh presided over a rate hike in only his second meeting at the bank, the response from President Trump’s social media accounts would likely be one for the ages, but that’s not a scenario that we need to entertain at this point as markets are even going so far as to price out a possible move in September.

In the US Dollar, I went over this in-depth in yesterday’s webinar. The currency has since broken down on the back of those rate hike bets getting priced out. I have this currently at the bottom of the ‘s2’ support zone and the next big item here is probably something to do with Japan ahead of the BoJ rate meeting, which I’ll touch on in a moment.

US Dollar Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD In the webinar yesterday I looked at a falling wedge formation in EUR/USD that opened the door for a pullback. That move is now in place and price has pushed up to the next resistance level, at 1.1469. The big spot overhead is the 1.1500 handle but at this point, I think a topside break above that would probably need a larger move down in USD/JPY as the big picture carry trade still remains a crowded venue.

If the BoJ can successfully frighten markets into thinking they may be taking a more-hawkish turn, there could be excuse for longs to bail and, in turn, stops can get hit to lead to more downside pressure. I think that would be more likely than an intervention threat at this point just given price trajectory, but with the BoJ coming up that can change quickly but suffice to say, I think that EUR/USD could possibly be taking directional pushes from the carry trade in USD/JPY.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY This is the big one and we’ve seen just how impactful moves in USD/JPY can be across the Dollar spectrum. It was just a little over two years ago when an intervention on the morning of a US CPI print sent both USD/JPY and DXY spiraling lower, and it carried US equities down with it.

At this point, I don’t think that Japanese policymakers necessarily mind the spot rate being above the 160 handle but the primary fear is one of losing control to where the currency slides to such a degree that inflation becomes problematic, which would then force their hand and in turn endanger growth. When you’re looking at a population conundrum like Japan is, that’s dangerous, as stalling that growth could become a generational issue so, I think if given the option the Bank of Japan would prefer for spot rates to stay around where they are now.

In USD/JPY, we now have a pullback after the FOMC meeting and price is currently holding at support, the same looked at in yesterday’s webinar.

As long as the fundamental divergence remains in place, and Warsh did nothing to question that today by retaining that hawkish-sounding outlook, there’s a case for bulls to come in to defend support.

That said, this is a crowded trade so if there was a shock of counter-trend stimuli getting priced-in, such a more-hawkish BoJ, that could run some stops and lead to short-term supply. That could then re-open the door for bulls on a bigger picture basis, but the point is the price always at least somewhat efficient given the known facts so there’s really no free lunch here, there’s always risk in the equation.

USD/JPY Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Gold price rises during the North American session after the Federal Reserve decided to hold rates unchanged, with a 9-3 vote split, as three members of the FOMC opted to increase the Fed funds rate by 25 basis points. The XAU/USD trades volatily at the time of writing within the $4,041-$4,100 range.

XAU/USD trades choppily after the Fed held rates, with three officials backing a 25-bps hikeThe Fed noted that economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty stemming from the Middle East conflict. The statement revealed that “Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little.”

Furthermore, the policy statement added that the Fed will deliver price stability.

Voting against the monetary policy decision were Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed Lorie Logan, who preferred a 25-basis-point rate hike.

Up next, investors await the press conference of the Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

XAU/USD Hourly chart

Gold hourly chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Interestingly, gold markets ignored the strong rally in the oil markets. Brent oil is up by +8% as Iran attacked a U.S. base in Jordan. Treasury yields moved higher as bond traders focused on rising oil prices. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.33% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries moved towards 4.65%.

U.S. dollar was mostly flat against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders were not ready for big moves ahead of Fed decision.

From the technical point of view, gold failed to settle below the support at $4020 – $4040 and is trying to settle back above the $4050 level. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the $4100 level. A move above $4100 will open the way to the test of the resistance level at $4180 – $4200.

On the support side, gold needs to settle below the $4020 level to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, gold will head towards the next support at $3930 – $3950.

Silver Moves Higher As Traders Shrug Off Worries About Hawkish Fed

FedWatch has the probability of holding the 3.5% to 3.75% range near 64%. The other third of the market is pricing a quarter-point hike today. A hold by itself is not going to move silver because that is already the base case.

September is the number that matters. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan has said rates should be modestly higher. Cleveland’s Beth Hammack, Minneapolis’s Neel Kashkari and Governor Christopher Waller have all left room for tightening if inflation does not improve. Any of those names dissenting on the hold would tell the market that the internal debate is further along than the headline decision suggests, and Warsh would spend the press conference explaining why the Fed waited rather than why it is considering action. That distinction changes the tone of every answer he gives.

Economist Claudia Sahm expects the statement to signal that policy firming may be needed soon if inflation stays elevated and the labor market holds. If that language shows up, the rate market takes it as confirmation and September expectations firm from here.

Oil Made Wednesday’s Press Conference Harder Crude is up nearly 7% after Iran launched missiles at U.S. forces and President Trump said the United States will respond hard. Warsh was already facing questions about inflation. Now he is facing them with energy prices running in the wrong direction on the day of the decision.

The oil move matters for silver because it forces the inflation question to the front of the press conference. A measured tone from Warsh was the bullish scenario coming in. Crude near $90 makes measured harder to deliver and easier for the market to dismiss even if he tries. The dollar is still carrying long positioning from two weeks of rate repricing, and if Warsh somehow avoids escalating the inflation message, those longs could start unwinding fast. Silver would catch that bid. But the setup walking in favors the hawks, and the oil spike gave them the headline they needed.

Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Short-term Trade Levels EUR/USD has tested both ends of the monthly range, leaving the pair at a pivotal technical inflection point. The weekly and monthly opening ranges remain intact just above critical support- breakout pending. A topside breach would weaken the multi-month downtrend, while a loss of support would favor another leg lower. The FOMC decision, Core PCE inflation, and Eurozone CPI could provide the catalyst for the next major move. Resistance 1.1422, 1.1483/92 (key), 1.1576/78- Support 1.1355/60 (key), 1.1276, 1.1214 EUR/USD enters the final days of the month with both sides of its monthly range now tested, leaving the pair at a pivotal technical crossroads ahead of today's FOMC rate decision. The broader downtrend remains intact, but the weekly and monthly opening ranges continue to hold just above critical support as traders await a decisive catalyst. With the Fed and key US / Eurozone inflation data on tap into the monthly close, the next breakout could provide important directional guidance heading into August trade. Battle lines drawn on the Euro short-term technical charts.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Euro Short-term Technical Outlook we noted that EUR/USD was trading within a well-defined monthly opening range, just above support and that, “From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1492 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next leg of the decline.” Euro rallied in the following days with price registering an intraday high at 1.1483 before reversing. The decline extended more than 1.1% off the highs with price registering an intraday low yesterday at 1.1353. Both sides of the range have now been tested, and the focus is on a breakout into the close of the week / month with the FOMC rate decision on tap later today.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD 240min

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Notes: A closer look at Euro price action shows EUR/USD continuing to trade within the confines of the descending pitchfork we have been tracking of May high. The weekly opening range is now set just below the objective monthly open at 1.1422. A topside breach above this threshold is needed to invalidate the multi-week downtrend. Ultimately, a daily / weekly close above the 1.618% extension of the April decline and the November low-day close (LDC) at 1.1483/92 would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway. Subsequent resistance objective eyed at the May and January lows near 1.1576/78.

A break / daily close below this pivotal support zone would threaten resumption / acceleration of the broader downtrend. Subsequent support objectives rest with the 2023 high at 1.1276 and the 2024 swing high at 1.1214. The next major technical consideration rests with the 100% extension of the January decline at 1.1178.

           

Bottom line: The monthly & weekly opening ranges are preserved just above critical support, and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead for guidance. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1422 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.

The FOMC rate decision is on tap this afternoon and although no change is expected, traders will be parsing Fed Chair Warsh’s comments on inflation considering the recent escalation in the Iran conflict and subsequent surge in oil. Ahead of today’s meeting, Fed funds futures imply a roughly 34% chance of a hike this week and a 75% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by September. Keep in mind we still have key economic data in the days ahead with Core PCE, the Fed’ preferred inflationary gauge, and Eurozone inflation on tap into the close of the week / month. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly close for directional guidance heading into August. Review my latest Euro Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term EUR/USD trade levels.

Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Short-term Technical Charts Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Presses Yearly Trend Resistance Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Challenges the July Downtrend Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex

The Mexican peso is once again showing signs of short-term weakness. During today’s session, USD/MXN is up more than 0.5%, once again reflecting strength in the U.S. dollar.

For now, buying pressure remains in place as the market waits for the Federal Reserve decision and evaluates the possible dynamic between central banks. This is also being accompanied by doubts around new tariffs on Mexico, a factor that could also affect confidence in the Mexican peso. If the market confirms a more aggressive Fed and trade uncertainty remains in place, USD/MXN could continue to face a phase of indecision or even recovery over the next few trading sessions.

What is expected from the Fed? Today’s session will be marked by one of the most relevant events of the week: the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. For now, the market assigns a probability close to 66% that the U.S. central bank will keep interest rates unchanged.

However, a probability close to 33% of a possible rate hike today has also started to gain relevance. This shows that the market is beginning to consider a potentially more aggressive Fed for the next monetary policy meetings.

In addition, just hours before the decision, there is still a probability above 56% that the central bank will raise rates at the September 16 meeting. For this reason, the Fed’s message will be key to determining whether expectations of higher rates in the United States gain strength over the coming months.

Source: CMEGROUP

For its part, the Bank of Mexico has not given clear signals that it could adopt a more aggressive stance in the coming months. In fact, Mexican monetary policy remains focused on avoiding relevant changes to interest rates, which makes sense given the recent moderation in inflation.

After reaching a 2026 high of 4.59% in March, annual inflation in Mexico fell to 3.37% in the June data. This reduction is important, as the rate remains close to the central bank’s 3.00% annual target and reduces pressure for Banxico to adopt a more restrictive stance.

Source: TradingEconomics

This scenario is relevant because the current 6.5% rate in Mexico remains attractive compared with other central banks and maintains an important differential against the 3.75% rate in the United States. However, if the Fed starts to show a more consistent possibility of new hikes, this differential could narrow and reduce the relative appeal of peso-denominated investments.

Therefore, if today’s decision confirms a more aggressive outlook from the Federal Reserve, dollar-denominated investments could gain greater appeal. This would limit the Mexican peso’s ability to recover and could maintain a phase of indecision or buying pressure in USD/MXN over the next few sessions.

Does the threat of new tariffs remain in place? For several sessions now, it has been known that the United States decided to apply an additional 10% tariff on Mexican products under Section 301. In principle, this measure applies to Mexican goods that are not covered by the USMCA trade agreement.

This event is relevant because Mexico maintains a high commercial dependence on the United States. By the end of 2025, nearly 80% of Mexican exports were directed to that country, meaning the impact of new tariffs could be more sensitive compared with other economies.

Although Mexico remains focused on strengthening negotiations to avoid additional tariffs or remove the ones already in place, no relevant progress has been seen yet suggesting that the U.S. government is willing to move away from these measures. This uncertainty could affect the perception of economic stability in Mexico over the coming months.

For this reason, if no positive updates emerge from negotiations, the appeal of peso-denominated investments could remain limited. This would add another pressure factor for USD/MXN, maintaining a possible phase of indecision over the next few trading sessions.

Technical forecast for USD/MXN

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

Sideways range remains relevant: For several months, USD/MXN has continued to move within a broad long-term sideways range. Despite some movement attempts, neutrality remains the dominant feature on the chart. For now, this structure remains the most important technical reference. If price fails to move consistently away from neutral zones, the sideways range could continue to reflect a lack of direction over the next few trading sessions.
  RSI: At the moment, the RSI remains close to the neutral 50 level. This indicates a balance between buying and selling impulses in the average of the last 14 sessions. If the indicator continues to behave this way, neutrality could remain relevant on the daily chart.
  MACD: The MACD remains close to the neutral 0 line, suggesting balance in the strength of short-term moving averages. This reading also reinforces the possibility that USD/MXN could continue to show a neutral phase in the short term. Key levels:

17.67 – Main resistance: This recent high zone coincides with the 200-period simple moving average. Sustained movements toward this level could mark the beginning of a more consistent buying bias and open room for a possible short-term bullish trend line.
  17.41 – Current barrier: This relevant retracement level from recent weeks is also an important neutral zone and coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. If price fails to move away from this reference, the indecision phase could be reinforced and the sideways range could extend as the dominant structure.
  17.10 – Relevant support: This 2026 low zone remains the main bearish barrier for now. Movements toward this level could bring the selling bias back into focus and open room for a continuation of the descending channel that had remained the dominant structure in previous months.
  Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note that EUR/USD is consolidating within a very tight range in the mid-to-upper 1.13s. Stable European Central Bank (ECB) rate expectations and supportive yield spreads are helping limit downside pressure, while increasingly negative risk reversals point to stronger demand for protection against Euro (EUR) weakness. Technically, the pair remains bounded by support in the low 1.13s and resistance near 1.1480, with a clear break needed to establish the next directional move.

Options market prices Euro downside risk"Fundamental releases have been limited to third-tier German import price data, showing signs of a potential peak following a energy-driven surge that lifted the y/y pace above 6%. ECB rate expectations are steady following their recent fade, delivering fundamental support via yield spreads – with near-term risk centered on US developments as we look to the 2pm ET FOMC rate decision."

"The options market is signaling a somewhat worrisome development however, and follows the deterioration in speculative positioning revealed by the latest CFTC data."

"Risk reversals are pushing deeper into negative territory, closing in on their late June lows, indicating a growing premium for protection against EUR weakness."

"Bearish/neutral—the RSI is showing signs of a tentative recovery, remaining bearish below 50 but off its earlier lows in the high-30s. The local range from June is bound by support in the low-1.13s and resistance closer to 1.1480. We await a break"

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold price eases for the third straight day and retests very important $4000 support on Wednesday, as initial enthusiasm about diplomatic action replacing hostilities in the Middle East, faded after fresh attacks of US / Saudi armies on Iraq.

The dollar firmed, keeping the yellow metal in defensive, as markets await results from Fed’s policy meeting and comments from Chairman Warsh, to get more information about the central bank’s next steps, as the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold in July meeting.

The latest developments in the Middle East warn of fresh pressure on prices (if the situation escalates further) that may keep gold at the back foot, especially if policymakers show more hawkish stance today.

Focus will be also on release of US June PCE price index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), due on Thursday, which would add more details to inflation picture.

Overall, the metal is expected to remain under increased pressure, especially if Fed hints more policy tightening (markets already bet for rate hike in September), with eventual break below $4000  to trigger fresh acceleration lower.

Res: 4077; 4116; 4166; 4180

Sup: 3960; 3942; 3900; 3842

Gold price eases for the third straight day and retests very important $4000 support on Wednesday, as initial enthusiasm about diplomatic action replacing hostilities in the Middle East, faded after fresh attacks of US / Saudi armies on Iraq.

The dollar firmed, keeping the yellow metal in defensive, as markets await results from Fed’s policy meeting and comments from Chairman Warsh, to get more information about the central bank’s next steps, as the Fed is widely expected to keep rates on hold in July meeting.

The latest developments in the Middle East warn of fresh pressure on prices (if the situation escalates further) that may keep gold at the back foot, especially if policymakers show more hawkish stance today.

Focus will be also on release of US June PCE price index (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), due on Thursday, which would add more details to inflation picture.

Overall, the metal is expected to remain under increased pressure, especially if Fed hints more policy tightening (markets already bet for rate hike in September), with eventual break below $4000  to trigger fresh acceleration lower.

Res: 4077; 4116; 4166; 4180
Sup: 3960; 3942; 3900; 3842

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.