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Key Highlights

USD/JPY struggled near 164.00 and started a fresh slide. It traded below a major bullish trend line with support at 163.30 on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin could gain strength if it settles above the $65,650 resistance. The US GDP grew 1.5% in Q2 vs 2.1% expected. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar failed on more than two occasions near 164.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY reacted to the downside below 163.50.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair dipped below the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 160.49 swing low to the 163.98 high. There was also a move below a major bullish trend line with support at 163.30.

The pair even settled below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

If there are more losses, the pair could find bids near the 1.618 Fib extension level at 158.35. The next major support could be near 158.00. The main support might be 157.40. A downside break and close below 157.40 might send the pair toward 156.80. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 155.50.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 161.50. The next major resistance might be 162.25 or the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

A close above 162.25 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 163.00. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 164.00.

Looking at Bitcoin, the price started a steady increase, but it must settle above $65,650 to gain bullish momentum.

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Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index for July 2026 – Forecast 56.0, versus 56.7 previous. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July 2026 (Prelim) – Forecast 54.0, versus 54.4 previous.

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The USD/JPY pair is seen building on the previous day's late recovery from sub-158.00 levels, or the lowest since May 14, and gaining positive traction during the Asian session on Friday. Spot prices climb back above the 160.50 level amid the emergence of some US Dollar (USD) buying and some repositioning trade ahead of the highly anticipated Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision.

From a technical perspective, strength beyond the 160.00 psychological mark and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the sharp corrective pullback from a four-decade peak backs the case for further intraday gains. However, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 31 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading around -0.43 suggest lingering downside pressure.

Hence, any further move up is more likely to confront stiff resistance near a dense Fibonacci band led by the 50.0% retracement at 160.99 and further capped by the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at 161.69 and 162.69, respectively. Bulls would need to clear the said barriers to ease immediate pressure and pave the way for a rise back towards the cycle high region at 163.97.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 160.28, ahead of the 23.6% level at 159.41 and the structural swing low zone at 158.00. A convincing break and acceptance below the handle will be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and pave the way for an extension of the suspected intervention-led corrective decline.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-1.01%-0.86%-1.85%-0.51%-0.33%-1.02%-1.15%EUR1.01%0.14%-0.83%0.52%0.70%-0.01%-0.14%GBP0.86%-0.14%-1.06%0.39%0.56%-0.15%-0.28%JPY1.85%0.83%1.06%1.33%1.52%0.81%0.59%CAD0.51%-0.52%-0.39%-1.33%0.15%-0.51%-0.65%AUD0.33%-0.70%-0.56%-1.52%-0.15%-0.70%-0.84%NZD1.02%0.00%0.15%-0.81%0.51%0.70%-0.14%CHF1.15%0.14%0.28%-0.59%0.65%0.84%0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Asian FX intervention may not be finished yet BOJ surprise hike risk has increased marginally Softer US data adds to dollar pressure AUD/USD and NZD/USD break to fresh highs AUD/USD and NZD/USD ripped higher on Friday, fuelled by broad-based US dollar weakness following apparent coordinated intervention from Asian foreign exchange authorities, softer-than-expected US economic data and a surge in risk appetite after strong earnings from Microsoft and Amazon.

Coordinated intervention rattles the US dollar The biggest driver behind the Australian and New Zealand dollars' outperformance was suspected intervention by Japanese authorities, likely undertaken in coordination with South Korean authorities and with at least tacit support from the United States. The move came with the US dollar already under pressure after the Fed opted against raising rates on Wednesday, providing an ideal backdrop to maximise the impact.

Source: TradingView

An important consideration for traders on Friday is that intervention often doesn't occur in one sitting. Earlier this year, Japanese authorities stepped into the market over several sessions rather than relying on a single operation. If authorities return to the market again, particularly around the Bank of Japan policy decision later in the session, it would point to renewed upside risks for AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

Softer US data adds to dollar headwinds Amplifying the effectiveness of intervention, US economic data broadly disappointed on Thursday. Core PCE inflation rose 0.1% in June, below the 0.2% expected, while the annual rate eased from 3.4% to 3.3%. The unrounded increase was 0.14%, meaning the downside surprise was marginal rather than dramatic.

Accompanying personal income and spending figures were also disappointing. Personal income rose just 0.2%, undershooting expectations, while personal spending increased 0.3%. With spending continuing to outpace income, the household savings rate fell to 2.7%, its lowest level in four years. That questions the sustainability of the strong rebound in consumer spending seen during the June quarter.

US Q2 GDP also disappointed, weighed down by a sizeable drag from net trade that masked underlying strength in business investment and consumer spending. Annualised growth slowed to 1.5%, below the 2.1% consensus forecast. Consumer spending rebounded to a 3.2% annualised pace after a subdued first quarter, while business investment surged 15.2%, continuing to be supported by AI-related capital expenditure. The downside surprise instead reflected a widening trade deficit and inventory drawdowns, which subtracted almost 1.7 percentage points from headline growth.

Risk appetite returns with a vengeance Alongside softer US economic data and suspected intervention, the Aussie and Kiwi ripped higher as risk appetite surged. Strong earnings updates from Microsoft and Amazon fuelled the rally, with Microsoft adding more market value in a single session than any listed company on record.

Given their sensitivity to global risk sentiment, the improvement in sentiment helped drive gains not only against the US dollar, but across most major crosses, with the yen the one exception.

All eyes turn to Tokyo When it comes to what may influence the Aussie and Kiwi on Friday, the events of the past 24 hours suggest risk appetite, the Bank of Japan policy decision and the threat of further intervention from Asian FX authorities will matter far more than economic data. That was reinforced by the total lack of reaction to an upside surprise in Tokyo's July inflation report released early Friday.

Intervention raises the stakes for the BOJ I previewed the Bank of Japan meeting in detail earlier this week, and much of that analysis still holds true. However, the intervention episode over the past 24 hours has increased the risk, at least marginally, of the Bank of Japan moving pre-emptively to raise rates today rather than later in the year, with a full hike already priced into the overnight index swap curve by year-end.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has made it clear he wants the Bank of Japan to continue normalising policy. If Japanese authorities are already working alongside their South Korean and US counterparts to strengthen the yen through intervention, it raises the question of whether the Bank of Japan may choose to oblige by delivering a surprise rate hike today.

While such a shock outcome would point to a sharply lower USD/JPY and potentially broader US dollar weakness, it would not necessarily be an outright positive for the Australian and New Zealand dollars. They may initially pop against the greenback, but given their sensitivity to shifts in risk appetite, would likely underperform lower-beta currencies if a surprise Bank of Japan hike sparked a broader risk-off episode.

As for when the Bank of Japan decision is likely to drop, it remains a frustration for traders worldwide that there is still no set time for the announcement. Generally, it tends to arrive around 12:30pm Tokyo time, although it can come earlier or later depending on how long the meeting runs. However, the general rule of thumb is that the longer it takes for the decision to drop, the greater the perceived risk that there may be some form of policy shock on the way. So expect markets to become extra twitchy if we extend well beyond 12:30pm Tokyo time.

AUD/USD breakout puts higher levels in play

Source: TradingView

AUD/USD had been coiling in what resembles an ascending triangle before a false downside break followed the softer-than-expected Australian June quarter underlying inflation report on July 29. However, that move has now been completely reversed, with the pair not only breaking back into the triangle structure, but also reclaiming the 50-day moving average and clearing resistance at 0.7020, the top of the structure.

With the price now holding above 0.7020, it provides a level to build long setups around, looking for an extension of the bullish move. Longs could be considered above that level, with a stop below, initially targeting the 100-day moving average at 0.7053 before resistance at 0.7080. A break above the latter would open the door for a potential run towards 0.7200.

The oscillators marginally favour long setups over shorts. RSI(14) has pushed above the neutral 50 level and continues to edge higher, while MACD has flipped into positive territory after staging a bullish crossover earlier this month. It's not a definitively bullish signal, but it does suggest upside momentum is building.

Should AUD/USD slip back below 0.7020 and hold there, it would instead point to a pullback towards the lower boundary of the triangle structure, which comes in around 0.6975 today.

Kiwi joins the breakout party

Source: TradingView

NZD/USD offers a similar technical picture to AUD/USD, breaking higher after grinding higher within an uptrend over recent weeks. The latest surge has seen it break above the confluence of the 50, 100 and 200-day moving averages, along with resistance at 0.5825 and, importantly, 0.5860, a level that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance over the past couple of months.

The break above 0.5860, taking the pair to its highest level since early June, suggests scope for a further extension of the bullish move. For those looking to play from the long side, longs could be considered while the pair holds above 0.5860, with a stop below, initially targeting 0.5920, another level that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance this year. A break above that would open the door for a retest of the double top at 0.5992 set in May and early June.

The oscillators favour long setups over shorts. RSI(14) has climbed to 64, with the bullish signal reinforced by MACD, which has crossed above the signal line, continues to diverge and remains in positive territory. That suggests upside momentum is building, favouring long setups.

Should NZD/USD slip back below 0.5860 and hold there, it would instead point to a pullback towards the moving average confluence zone and the uptrend, which comes in around 0.5775 today.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,110 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal edges higher as traders reduce their bets on interest rate hikes a day after Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on policy.

On Wednesday, the US central bank decided to leave the interest rates unchanged in its current target range between 3.50% and 3.75%. During the press conference, Warsh pledged an unwavering commitment to bring inflation down, a message that left markets confused about just what he was prepared to do. 

It’s worth noting that Gold is often used as a hedge against inflation but does not yield interest, making it less attractive when interest rates are high.

Markets are now pricing in nearly a 63.4% probability of a US rate hike in September, down from about 77% before the July Fed meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Nonetheless, ongoing tensions in the Middle East might cap the upside for the yellow metal as it could push crude oil prices up and prompt central banks to hold rates at elevated levels for longer. 

Bloomberg reported the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that it targeted US bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain after US forces bombed a building on Iran’s Qeshm Island. Iranian military added that the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed and that the “aggressor will be punished.”

Fed shifts focus to data as forward guidance is pared backCommerzbank’s FX Research team notes that the Fed chair has reinforced the central bank’s data-dependent stance, “continu[ing] his efforts to reduce the Fed's reliance on forward guidance, arguing that markets should respond to incoming economic data rather than Fed signalling.” This recalibration of communication strategy is seen by Commerzbank as a key backdrop for recent market moves, with investors increasingly attuned to the evolving macro data rather than pre-set policy cues.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The United States officially reports holding 8,133.5 metric tons of gold, equivalent to roughly 261.5 million troy ounces. According to government figures, approximately 147.3 million ounces are stored at Fort Knox, while the remainder is held at the Denver Mint, the West Point Bullion Depository, and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

On the surface, the question of how much gold America possesses appears settled. However, Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey argues that the more important question is whether those official figures have ever been independently verified through a comprehensive audit.

The case for a full Fort Knox auditDuring a recent interview on Fox News with Jesse Watters, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Fort Knox's gold is "present and accounted for," explaining that members of his staff and the U.S. Treasurer have visited the facility. Maharrey contends that while such assurances may reassure some observers, they do not replace the need for an independent audit.

Drawing on his accounting background, Maharrey explains that audits exist to detect honest mistakes, verify records, and provide accountability. Virtually every business that manages valuable assets relies on regular external audits to ensure transparency and maintain public confidence.

He argues that any institution responsible for billions of dollars in assets should welcome independent verification rather than discourage it. In his view, resisting routine audits raises more questions than it answers.

Why the 1974 inspection doesn't qualify as an auditGovernment officials have often pointed to inspections conducted during the 1970s as evidence that America's gold reserves have already been examined. Maharrey argues that these events fall far short of accepted auditing standards.

In 1974, the Treasury opened only one of Fort Knox's 15 vault compartments to members of Congress and the media during what Maharrey characterizes as a public relations event rather than a legitimate financial audit. Visitors observed stacks of gold bars and briefly handled some of the bullion, but no meaningful verification took place.

According to Maharrey, none of the bars were matched to serial numbers, weighed, assayed for purity, or reconciled against official inventory records. A true audit would require every bar to be counted, tested, documented, and independently verified before the results were released publicly.

Transparency questions continue decades laterFollowing the 1974 event, the Treasury conducted inventory procedures and installed tamper-evident seals on vault compartments. Maharrey argues these actions still did not meet accepted auditing practices.

He points to missing reports, the absence of publicly available assay records, incomplete transactional histories, and evidence that some vault seals have been broken and later replaced without new comprehensive audits. In his view, these shortcomings would not satisfy the standards expected of a professionally managed private bullion depository.

Rather than opposing an audit, Maharrey believes the government should embrace one. If the reported gold reserves are accurate, he argues, an independent examination would strengthen public confidence instead of undermining it.

Money Metals emphasizes independent verificationMaharrey contrasted the government's approach with the auditing procedures used at the Money Metals Depository in Eagle, Idaho.

According to Maharrey, the depository conducts both continuous internal audits and regular external audits performed by independent firms. Customer holdings are routinely verified, inventory is spot-checked, and clients may request an annual photograph of their segregated holdings to confirm that their precious metals remain securely stored.

He argues that transparency, accountability, and routine verification should be considered standard practice whenever valuable assets are entrusted to a storage facility.

Governments continue holding Gold despite fiat currencyAlthough modern monetary systems are no longer backed by gold, Maharrey notes that governments continue maintaining substantial bullion reserves.

He argues that this creates an interesting contradiction. Public officials often emphasize that fiat currencies make large gold reserves unnecessary, yet central banks around the world continue accumulating physical bullion. According to Maharrey, their actions suggest that gold still plays an important strategic role within the global financial system.

China's official Gold holdings may be only part of the storyChina officially reports holding 2,346 metric tons of gold and has now increased its reported reserves for 21 consecutive months. In June, the People's Bank of China announced a 15-tonne increase following a 10-tonne purchase in May, representing a noticeable acceleration in official buying.

Maharrey argues that these official figures likely understate China's actual gold accumulation.

He cites research from Goldman Sachs estimating that China acquired more than 48 tonnes of gold through London's over-the-counter market during May alone, despite officially reporting only a 10-tonne increase. Goldman ultimately adopted a more conservative estimate, concluding that China has likely accumulated approximately 80 tonnes of gold during 2026 so far—roughly double its reported purchases.

Evidence Suggests China Holds Far More GoldAdditional research cited by Maharrey indicates China's actual reserves may be significantly larger than official disclosures suggest.

Money Metals researcher Jan Nieuwenhuijs previously estimated that China's central bank quietly acquired approximately 570 tonnes of gold during 2024 while officially reporting purchases of only 41 tonnes. His research suggests that, since the Ukraine war began, China has been acquiring roughly five times more gold than it reports to the International Monetary Fund. Based on multiple sources, he estimates China's monetary gold holdings could already exceed 5,000 tonnes.

The Financial Times later reported that China's undisclosed purchases could exceed ten times its official figures, highlighting the country's continued efforts to diversify reserves away from the U.S. dollar while supporting global gold demand.

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Price & Buy

Maharrey also referenced longtime analyst Jim Rickards, who argued more than a decade ago that China deliberately keeps large quantities of gold outside its officially reported central bank reserves.

Rickards wrote that after China announced a 604-tonne increase in 2015, much larger holdings remained under the control of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), with only gradual transfers appearing in official People's Bank of China reserve reports. Maharrey says this strategy allows China to satisfy international reporting requirements while concealing the true scale of its gold accumulation.

Recent analysis has even suggested that, if current trends continue, China could surpass the United States in total gold holdings within the next five years.

Central banks continue diversifying into GoldAccording to Goldman Sachs, China's purchases are part of a broader multi-year trend among central banks worldwide.

The bank continues forecasting gold to reach $4,900 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, arguing that sustained central bank demand should provide long-term price support even if higher interest rates create short-term headwinds. Goldman also believes private investment demand could expand further if geopolitical risks continue increasing.

Maharrey notes that central banks have increasingly diversified reserves away from U.S. Treasuries and toward physical gold, reinforcing what he sees as gold's enduring role as a reserve asset.

Federal Reserve policy remains a near-term headwindAs the July Federal Open Market Committee meeting concluded, Maharrey observed that most investors expected Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh to leave interest rates unchanged, although some market participants had speculated about the possibility of another rate increase.

He argued that additional tightening could accelerate debt problems that have accumulated following years of quantitative easing, historically low interest rates, and nearly $5 trillion in pandemic-era monetary expansion.

While acknowledging that gold and silver prices may continue trading sideways in the near term, Maharrey believes the underlying monetary environment remains favorable for precious metals over the longer term.

Chinese investors continue buying the dipBeyond central bank purchases, private Chinese demand has also strengthened.

China imported 173 tonnes of gold during the previous month, marking a two-year high. Maharrey cited Jinrui Futures analyst Zijie Wu, who said investors viewed recent price weakness as an attractive buying opportunity, while Chinese banks also increased purchases to utilize import quotas and replenish bullion inventories.

Maharrey concluded that regardless of near-term Federal Reserve policy, inflation continues reducing the purchasing power of fiat currencies over time. As central banks continue expanding their gold reserves and investors increasingly seek tangible assets, he argues that physical gold and silver remain important long-term stores of wealth.

Snapback rally for the major indices. Amazon and Apple after the close.Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean +1.4% vs +2.7% in MayBOE Bailey: Disinflation is proceeding but at a slow paceAtlanta Fed GDPNow initial estimate for Q3 is set at 5.0%.WH Advisor Hassett: Inflation is continuing to easeUS June PCE inflation 3.7% vs 3.7%% expected. Core 3.3% vs 3.3% expectedUS initial jobless claims 197K versus 200K expectedUS Q2 advance GDP +1.5% vs +2.1% expectedinvestingLive European markets wrap: Dollar extends post-Fed drop, BOE keeps bank rate unchangedThe USD is mostly lower to kickstart July 30 trading in the NA sessionThursday's economic calendar delivered a mixed but ultimately constructive picture of the U.S. economy. Growth slowed more than expected during the second quarter, but the details beneath the headline were stronger than they first appeared. Consumer spending accelerated sharply, inflation continued to cool, and the labor market remained remarkably resilient.

Q2 GDP disappoints, but consumers keep the economy movingThe advance estimate of second-quarter GDP showed the U.S. economy grew at an annualized 1.5%, below the 2.1% consensus forecast and down from 2.1% in Q1.

However, the underlying details painted a healthier picture:

GDP (Q2): +1.5% vs. +2.1% expectedConsumer spending: +3.2% vs. +0.5% in Q1 Real final sales to private domestic purchasers: +3.9% vs. +1.7% prior Government spending declined, weighing on overall growth. Investment and exports slowed from the first quarter, while imports increased. The biggest positive in the report was the sharp rebound in consumer spending, suggesting households remain willing to spend despite higher interest rates. The weakness in the headline GDP number was driven more by government spending and slower investment than by deterioration in private demand.

Inflation data moves in the right directionInflation remained well above the Federal Reserve's 2% objective, but the monthly data continued to point toward gradual improvement.

June PCE Inflation

Headline PCE YoY: 3.7% (as expected), down from 4.1% Core PCE YoY: 3.3% (as expected), down from 3.4% Headline MoM: -0.1% Core MoM: +0.1% vs. +0.2% expected Services inflation excluding housing and energy slowed to just 0.1% from 0.5% previously. While the annual inflation readings remain elevated, the monthly figures continue to moderate. If monthly core inflation can remain near 0.1%, inflation should gradually trend closer to the Fed's target over the coming months. However, energy prices remain an important wildcard. Any sustained rise in oil prices could quickly slow or even reverse that progress.

Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean sends encouraging signalOne of the most encouraging reports of the day came from the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE, which slowed sharply to:

1.4% vs. 2.7% previouslyThat is the lowest reading since 2020.

Unlike traditional Core PCE, the Trimmed Mean removes the largest monthly price increases and decreases regardless of category, providing a cleaner look at underlying inflation trends.

The sharp decline suggests that beneath the headline inflation numbers, broad-based price pressures continue to ease. It is another piece of evidence supporting the view that underlying inflation is gradually moving lower, even if the official PCE measures remain above target.

Labor market remains remarkably resilientWeekly jobless claims continued to reinforce the view that employers remain reluctant to lay off workers.

Initial Claims: 197K vs. 200K expected Continuing Claims: 1.782M vs. 1.795M expected Both measures came in better than expected, keeping layoffs near historically low levels.

Despite slower GDP growth, businesses continue to hold onto workers, suggesting confidence that economic activity remains healthy enough to justify maintaining payrolls.

Bottom lineToday's data reinforced the same theme markets have been wrestling with for weeks:

Economic growth is slowing, but not collapsing. Consumer demand remains surprisingly strong. Inflation is moving in the right direction, albeit gradually. The labor market continues to show impressive resilience. Perhaps the most encouraging takeaway came from the Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean inflation measure, which suggests underlying inflation pressures are easing faster than the headline numbers indicate. That won't cause the Federal Reserve to declare victory yet—Chair Kevin Warsh has made clear the Fed remains focused on returning inflation to its 2% target—but it does provide another reason to believe the inflation trend is improving rather than deteriorating.

Taken together, the day's reports support a picture of an economy that is slowing toward a more sustainable pace while inflation gradually cools—a combination that markets have been hoping to see.

The USD moved sharply lower, dragged down by the USDJPY on potential intervention. The price of the USDJPY moved from 163. 30 to a low of 158.00. The low was just short of the rising 200 day MA at 157.89. The price correction off the low moved to a high of 159.88 which was just short of the 100 day MA at 160.07. Both the 100 and the 200 day MAs have now solidified themselves as key support and resistance for the pair going forward.

The USD moved lower in sympathy vs all the major currencies with declines of 1.25% vs the NZD, 1.05% vs the AUD, and 1.00% vs the CHF leading the declines.

In the US debt market, yields moved higher as traders continued to sell since the FOMC rate decision and Warsh comments.

US Treasury yields at the close:

2-year: 4.2459%, +0.99 bps3-year: 4.2925%, +1.45 bps5-year: 4.3873%, +3.53 bps7-year: 4.5259%, +4.19 bps10-year: 4.6732%, +5.12 bps20-year: 5.2253%, +7.13 bps30-year: 5.2145%, +7.15 bpsThe move highlighted growing concern that inflation may prove more persistent than the slowdown in headline GDP alone would suggest, with the selling pressure concentrated at the long end of the Treasury curve.

US stocks soared as investors came in with strong buying

The gains helped drive the broader market higher:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,213.21, +614.08 points (+1.19%)S&P 500: 7,437.64, +121.48 points (+1.66%)NYSE Composite: 25,122.18, +679.24 points (+2.78%)Russell 2000: 2,946.10, +39.79 points (+1.37%)Nasdaq 100: 28,106.35, +914.04 points (+3.36%

Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Resistance Stands in the Way If gold can move above the recent lower swing high of $4,166, it may be able to advance further. A downtrend line would be broken before reaching that high, providing an earlier sign of strengthening. However, potentially significant resistance is nearby, marked by the falling 50-day moving average at $4,193 and the lower swing high at $4,203. That high is a key part of the downtrend structure, and a sustained move above it would therefore provide a trend reversal signal.

There is also a resistance zone indicated by the long-term rising trendline that has recently continued to be tested as resistance and has held so far. This creates a series of increasingly important resistance levels between $4,166 and $4,203 that gold must overcome to strengthen the bullish case.

$4,203 Holds the Reversal Key The uptrend line would need to be recovered before the bearish implications of recent consolidation below the line are negated. A reclaim of the 50-day moving average would improve the chance for that to occur but it does not guarantee it. Ultimately, for a bullish trend reversal signal to trigger, gold would need to close above the lower swing high of $4,203.

That would also trigger a breakout from a bottom consolidation pattern, which has taken the form of a possible double bottom pattern. Therefore, the strength emerging from the $3,996 pullback low is encouraging, but the $4,203 level remains the key test of whether that early strength can develop into a confirmed trend reversal.

JPMorgan cut its silver forecast to $60 to $65 in July, and the rest of Wall Street followed it down, but not one of those banks called the shortage over.

Silver trades near $58.24 an ounce as I write this, with the gold-silver ratio around 69. That ratio is the number of silver ounces it takes to buy one ounce of gold, and near 69 it sits close to the high end of its historical range, a level long-term buyers read as silver being inexpensive against the larger metal. Silver is up more than 50% from where it stood a year ago, yet it remains about 52% below the record of $121.62 set on January 29.

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady on July 29, its fifth consecutive hold, on a divided 9-to-3 vote. Silver did not rally on the news. It has not opened above $60 since July 8, held down by the same mix of a firm dollar, renewed Middle East tension, and questions about industrial demand that has defined the whole month. Into that soft tape came a run of analyst downgrades, and it would be easy to read a wave of bank price cuts as a sign the professionals had turned against silver.

I write the Silver Catalyst newsletter for Golden Meadow®, and one distinction I come back to constantly is the difference between a price call and a balance call. A price call is a bank's guess about where the quote goes over the next few months. A balance call is a statement about whether the world produces enough metal to meet demand. In July the banks cut the first and left the second essentially untouched, and confusing the two is the easiest way to misread what just happened.

The cuts came in a clusterThe headline landed on July 8, when JPMorgan cut its rest-of-year silver forecast to $60 to $65, down from an earlier call of about $81. Gregory Shearer, who runs base and precious-metals strategy at the bank, pointed to both engines of silver demand cooling at once: investor appetite had dried up after silver's sharp correction from its January record, and industrial demand was softening as high prices pushed manufacturers to use less. He named silverless solar technology as the largest long-term risk to the metal.

The other desks moved the same way. Earlier in the cycle, UBS had cut its 2026 supply-deficit estimate by about 80%, from roughly 300 million ounces down to 60 to 70 million, and trimmed its price targets across every horizon, settling on a year-end call near $80 and a base case that silver simply trades sideways. ING lowered its third and fourth quarter numbers on slower solar demand, higher yields, and a stronger dollar. Commerzbank, updating its view around the Fed meeting, reiterated a silver target of about $67. Put together, the message from the sell-side, the analysts at banks who publish these forecasts, was unmistakably lower.

Here is what those cuts are, and what they are not. They are reductions in price expectations, and in the UBS case a smaller deficit estimate. They are not a claim that the market has flipped into surplus. This is the detail that gets lost in the headlines. Even after UBS cut its deficit forecast by 80%, the number it landed on, 60 to 70 million ounces, still sits above the official 2026 shortfall of 46.3 million ounces from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. The banks are converging down toward the official number, not away from it, and none of them has declared the shortage finished.

The dispersion that remains is striking on its own. The gap between the most bearish and most bullish calls on this list is roughly $50 an ounce, close to the current price of the metal itself. Citigroup still carries a second-half target near $110. Bank of America sits at a 2026 average of about $85.93. Goldman Sachs models $85 to $100 if industrial demand holds. The LBMA's annual analyst survey put the 2026 consensus at $79.57. That is the part worth pausing on: even after a month of cuts, the published consensus sits more than $20 above where silver actually trades today, and the current price of about $58 is below every single call in the table below, including the most bearish one.

Sources: TheStreet: JPMorgan Cuts Silver Forecast to $60-65 | BigGo Finance: UBS Slashes Deficit by 80%, Citi Still at $110 | Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan Sees the Writing on the Wall for Silver | Trading Economics: Silver Market and Commerzbank $67 Call | Silver Institute: World Silver Survey 2026 | LBMA: 2026 Annual Precious Metals Forecast Survey

Why a target cut is not a thesis changeThe discipline the book insists on is simple: a lower price target is a bank marking its expectation to a market that already corrected, not a verdict on the physical balance.

When JPMorgan moves its number to $60 to $65, it is saying it expects the quote to stay soft for a few months. It is not saying the world will suddenly mine more silver than it consumes. Those are different claims resting on different evidence, and only the second one would actually break the long-term case. The physical balance did not change in July. Mine supply is still forecast essentially flat, demand still exceeds it, and the market still runs its sixth consecutive annual deficit.

There is also history worth remembering here. Banks have spent this cycle chasing silver rather than leading it. The same catalyst that tracks these targets was built around a specific pattern: one major institution carried a $38 silver target for late 2025 and then had to raise it repeatedly as the metal climbed past it. A mid-cycle cut after a sharp correction fits that track record rather than breaking it. Sell-side targets tend to follow the price, lowered after a fall and raised after a rally, which is precisely why they describe where the metal has been better than where it is going.

None of this means the bears have no case. They do, and it deserves stating plainly. Investment demand really did weaken after January, ETF holdings have fallen, and solar manufacturers really are engineering silver out of each panel as fast as they can. UBS trimming its deficit estimate so hard is a genuine narrowing of the scarcity story, not a rounding error. The honest version of the bull case has to carry that weight rather than wave it away.

What this means to Silver investorsThe practical takeaway is to separate the two claims the way the banks themselves do, even when the headlines blur them.

A price-target cut tells you a bank thinks the next few months look soft. It tells you almost nothing about whether the world is running short of silver, and on that second question the same banks are still, to a firm, describing a deficit. The most bearish 2026 deficit estimate on Wall Street is larger than the official one. The published analyst consensus sits well above the current price. And silver today trades below every target on the list, bearish and bullish alike. Those facts can all be true at once, and together they describe a market where sentiment has turned cautious while the physical shortage the cautious sentiment is reacting to has not gone anywhere.

That gap between mood and metal is the whole point. The longer-term case for silver rests on a supply-and-demand balance that runs a deficit for a sixth consecutive year in 2026, and a deficit means the world consumes more silver than it mines and recycles, covering the difference from stockpiles that are not endless. A round of price-target cuts does not add an ounce to those stockpiles. If you follow how silver has traded in 2026, the pattern is that the price swings on the Fed, the dollar, and oil from week to week, while the shortage grinds on underneath, indifferent to the forecast revisions layered on top of it.

Next week's price will keep taking its cues from the macro headlines, and it may stay soft for a while, exactly as the sell-side now expects. The structural question is the slower one, and on that question the July downgrades changed the mood without changing the math. That is the distinction the framework in Silver Rising is built to hold steady, separating what the banks think the price will do from what the balance sheet says the market actually is.

Gold price advances some 0.92% on Thursday after the US Dollar drops following a suspected intervention in the foreign exchange markets, with the Japanese Yen hitting a near two-month high versus the Greenback. The XAU/USD trades at $4,100 after bouncing off the low of the day (LOD) at $4,028.

XAU/USD climbs above $4,100 as Dollar weakness, softer growth and reduced Fed hike odds support BullionThe Greenback tumbles nearly 0.90% as the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, exchanges hands at 99.90. Speculation that Japanese authorities intervened in the FX markets boosted the precious metal to a five-day high of $4,126.

US inflation came as expected, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index in June, ticked lower from 3.4% to 3.3% YoY as expected. The headline PCE slowed from 4.1% to 3.7% YoY, as expected.

Other data showed that the US economy grew more slowly than expected, according to the Commerce Department. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 2026 missed forecasts of 2.1% growth, coming in at 1.5%, due to a widening trade deficit.

Last Wednesday, the Fed held rates unchanged, though the decision was not unanimous. A 9-3 vote split revealed that three Fed Regional Bank Presidents dissented in favour of a 25-basis-point rate hike.

US jobless claims increased below estimates last week, hinting that the labour market remains solid.

Also, the new Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, emphatically stated that tackling inflation is the priority, though he dodged questions about how the Fed will do its job. The lack of clarity and forward guidance pushed the premium on the US 30-year bond yield to a level last seen in 2007 near 5.21%.

Money markets trimmed their Fed-hawkish bets for September. Instead, the odds of a rate hike are a slim, 30%, while the chances of a hold have risen sharply to 70%, according to Prime Terminal data.

Source: Prime TerminalHowever, the resumption of hostilities in the Gulf War could lead to higher energy prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Crude benchmark, is down 1% during the day at $83.59, but is up nearly 20% in July so far. 

On Friday, the US economic docket will feature University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold recovers $4,100, eyes on $4,150Gold’s price continues to trade sideways, despite registering two days of solid gains, clearing the $4,100 mark. Momentum turned bullish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pierced above the 50 neutral level, an indication that buyers are moving in.

For a bullish continuation, buyers must clear the July 22 daily high at $4,165, which would open the path to test the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,194. Above sits the July 6 peak at $4,202.

Downward, the first XAU/USD support is $4,100. A breach of the latter will expose the July 24 (LOD) at $4,022. This comes ahead of the psychological $4,000 level and then the June 17 daily low at $3,959.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire explores reports on how gold has overtaken US Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset, as central banks lose trust in dollar-based systems and accelerate repatriation of their sovereign assets.

With Fort Knox back under scrutiny following the launch of the Hong Kong SGE gold link, the precious metals expert reveals why a full audit of US gold reserves looks imminent, while the gold revaluation process has already begun.

Timestamps:00:00 Start03:40 Hong Kong-SGE launch puts Fort Knox back under scrutiny10:53 Gold overtakes Treasuries as the world's top reserve asset14:44 How China quietly accumulated 40,000+ tons of Western physical gold18:25 Why Hong Kong marks a structural reset, not just another gold venue28:17 Reading the charts: why the short squeeze is coming36:10 Laos adopts the SGE price standard as de-dollarisation spreads41:16 CME's desperate 24-hour futures gambit to stay relevant

The Pound Sterling registers gains versus the US Dollar after the Bank of England decided to hold rates unchanged, in a 6-3 vote, while suspected intervention to propel the Japanese Yen weakened the Greenback against most G8 currencies. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3430, up 0.40%. Read More...

British Pound drops against its peers after BoE’s monetary policy decisionThe British Pound (GBP) drops against its major currency peers after the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision. The GBP/USD pair edges lower from its intraday high of 1.3405 to near 1.3380; however, the initial reaction from the pair was slightly positive. Read More...

British Pound declines as Fed hawkish rate holds boost US Dollar, BoE rate decision loomsThe GBP/USD pair attracts some sellers to near 1.3345 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the British Pound (GBP) amid hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) signals and escalating Middle East tensions. The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision will take center stage later on Thursday. Read More...

Personal Spending increased by +0.3% month-over-month in June, in line with analyst estimates. Personal Income grew by +0.2%, compared to analyst consensus of +0.3%.

PCE Price index declined from 4.1% in May to 3.7% in June, meeting analyst expectations.

Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report showed that 197,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 200,000.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle below the support at 99.85 – 100.00. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next support level at 99.25 – 99.40. It should be noted that RSI is in the oversold territory, so the risks of a rebound are increasing.

EUR/USD Tests New Highs As Euro Area GDP Growth Rate Beats Estimates

Australian Technical Forecast: AUD/USD Weekly Trade Levels AUD/USD has stalled beneath the monthly high after rallying in four of the past five weeks. Aussie has traded within a well-defined range below resistance for three consecutive weeks. A breakout from the current range to provide important directional guidance into August. Event risk on tap into the August open: US ISM services & manufacturing data, ADP employment, and NFPs Resistance 7023, 7116/20 (key), 7208/14- Support 6927, 6877/80 (key), ~6825 AUD/USD heads into the July close locked in a well-defined three-week range just beneath major resistance, leaving the pair at a pivotal technical inflection point. Buyers continue to pressure the upper boundary of the range while sellers have been unable to force a meaningful rejection, underscoring the constructive nature of the monthly recovery without yet confirming a breakout. The focus now shifts to whether the weekly and monthly closes can provide the confirmation needed to resolve this consolidation heading into August. Battle lines drawn on the AUD/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Aussie setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In my last Australian Dollar Forecast we noted that, “AUD/USD has broken the November uptrend with the bears now facing the first major test of technical support. The weekly & monthly opening ranges are taking shape just above and the focus is on a breakout in the days ahead. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 7023 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 6877 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Aussie registered an intraday high at 7027 two-weeks later with price stuck in a well-defined range just below resistance for a third week.

Initial support rests with the 61.8% retracement of the late-June advance at 6927 with key support steady at 6877/80- a region define by the March close low and the 1.618% extension of the May decline. A break / weekly close below this threshold would threaten a deeper correction in the weeks ahead with subsequent support seen a the 52-week moving average (currently ~6824) and the 2025 close high / 38.2% retracement of the yearly range at 6717/57.

A topside breach of this key pivot zone would expose key resistance at the February high-close and the 61.8% retracement at 7116/20. Note that former pitchfork support converges on this threshold in mid-August and strength surpassing this slope would suggest a more significant low is place and potential resumption of the broader uptrend. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the 2021 decline and the 100% extension of the 2025 rally at 7208/14 and the 2019 swing high at 7295.

Bottom line: AUD/USD has rallied four-of-the-past five-weeks (last week marked a weekly doji) with the bulls testing resistance at the monthly high for a third-consecutive week. The immediate focus heading into August is on a breakout of this range for guidance. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 6927 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 7023 needed to fuel the next leg of the rally.

Keep in mind we get the release of key ISM data next week with the July Non-Farm Payrolls report on tap Friday. Stay nimble into the monthly cross and watch the weekly closes for guidance into the August open. Review my latest Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

Australia / US Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

EUR/USD’s break of 1.1499 support turned resistance argue that fall from 1.2081 might have completed as a three wave correction at 1.1323. Intraday bias is back on the upside for 1.1621 cluster resistance (38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323 at 1.1613). Decisive break there will add more credence to this bullish case, and target 61.8% retracement at 1.1791. Nevertheless, break of 1.1433 minor support will turn bias back to the downside, for 1.1323/1352 support zone instead.

In the bigger picture, focus is back on 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. Decisive break there will revive the case of medium term bearish trend reversal after rejection by 1.2 key cluster resistance level. Further fall should be seen to 61.8% retracement at 1.0904. Nevertheless, strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by break of 1.1621 resistance, will retain medium term bullishness.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

USD/JPY’s steep decline today suggests that a medium term top is probably formed at 163.97 already. Immediate focus is now on rising channel floor (now at 158.74). Sustained break there will argue that fall from 163.97 is already correcting the whole rise from 139.87, and target 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76. Strong rebound from the channel support will keep the rally from 139.87 intact. But still, even in this case, more consolidations would be seen below 163.97 for a while.

In the bigger picture, the break of 159.44 resistance turned support, together with bearish divergence condition in D MACD, suggests that a medium term top could be formed at 163.97 already. More consolidations would be seen in the near term. But still, outlook will remain bullish as long as 152.25 support holds. The long term up trend is still expected to continue at a later stage, only delayed.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

EUR/JPY plunges on Thursday, down 2.54% on the day to trade around 182.60 at the time of writing, after a sudden surge in the Japanese Yen (JPY) triggered by what appears to be another intervention by Japanese authorities in the foreign exchange market. The move has been particularly violent, with the pair losing more than 400 pips in just a few minutes.

The JPY rally comes without any obvious economic catalyst, reinforcing speculation that the Japanese Ministry of Finance has stepped into the market to curb the currency's persistent weakness. USD/JPY is also tumbling below the 161.00 mark, while other major Japanese Yen crosses are posting broad-based losses.

The suspected intervention recalls the episode at the end of April, when the Japanese Yen appreciated by nearly 3% against the US Dollar after USD/JPY reached a high of 160.72. At that time, the Japanese Finance Minister Katayama Satsuki warned that "decisive" action was imminent, while top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura described it as the market's "final warning." Two sources familiar with the matter later told Reuters that Japanese authorities had intervened to support the currency. Since then, the Finance Minister has continued to warn that further intervention remains possible as the Japanese Yen has continued to weaken.

Market attention now shifts to the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy decision on Friday. The central bank is widely expected to leave its policy rate unchanged at 1%, but investors will closely watch the updated economic projections and Governor Kazuo Ueda's comments for clues on whether another rate hike could come as early as October or be delayed until December. A more hawkish message could extend the Japanese Yen's rebound and keep pressure on JPY crosses.

On the European side, the latest economic data has offered only limited support to the Euro (EUR). Preliminary figures showed that Germany's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.2% QoQ in the second quarter, beating expectations of 0.1%, while annual growth accelerated to 0.9%.

Across the Eurozone, the economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter and 1% YoY, also exceeding market forecasts. Meanwhile, the European Commission reported an improvement in July Consumer Confidence and Economic Sentiment, although the Unemployment Rate edged up to 6.3%.

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.56%-0.53%-2.58%-0.28%-0.91%-1.33%-1.12%EUR0.56%0.02%-2.00%0.34%-0.37%-0.79%-0.53%GBP0.53%-0.02%-2.01%0.30%-0.38%-0.79%-0.53%JPY2.58%2.00%2.01%2.37%1.73%1.29%1.57%CAD0.28%-0.34%-0.30%-2.37%-0.62%-1.05%-0.78%AUD0.91%0.37%0.38%-1.73%0.62%-0.41%-0.17%NZD1.33%0.79%0.79%-1.29%1.05%0.41%0.29%CHF1.12%0.53%0.53%-1.57%0.78%0.17%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The Japanese Yen is surging accross the board in the American session on Thursday, without a clear catalyst. This development hints that Japanese authorities may finally be intervening in foreign exchange markets following days of speculation.

At the time of press, the USD/JPY pair was down 1.8% on the day at 160.55, while EUR/JPY was losing 1.5% at 184.80, and GBP/JPY was falling 1.4% at 215.45.

Developing story, please refresh the page for updates.

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.35%-0.34%-1.80%-0.17%-0.76%-1.18%-0.72%EUR0.35%-0.01%-1.42%0.18%-0.43%-0.85%-0.36%GBP0.34%0.00%-1.40%0.17%-0.42%-0.84%-0.33%JPY1.80%1.42%1.40%1.60%1.00%0.56%1.09%CAD0.17%-0.18%-0.17%-1.60%-0.59%-1.01%-0.52%AUD0.76%0.43%0.42%-1.00%0.59%-0.41%0.08%NZD1.18%0.85%0.84%-0.56%1.01%0.41%0.54%CHF0.72%0.36%0.33%-1.09%0.52%-0.08%-0.54% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Technical Damage and Range-Bound Systems Ultimately, I think this is a situation where short-term traders will continue to be attracted to short-term range-bound systems; I think that will be the way forward. Ultimately, this is a market that, given enough time, will have to make a bigger decision, but I don’t necessarily think that this is a market that longer-term traders are attracted to at the moment.

Over the long term, meaning years, I do like silver. I think there is a major lack of supply compared to what the demand will be, but as things stand right now, we’re somewhat stagnant in the silver market. However, once we get moving, silver tends to move quickly.

BNY’s Geoff Yu notes World Gold Council (WGC) data showing a sharp rebound in central bank Gold purchases to a record 289 tons in Q2, led by Poland and China, after a very weak Q1. Despite this, the council expects official sector buying to ease and fall below 2025 levels, while ETF outflows and weak mining flows point to fragile investor confidence in Gold prices.

Official buying rebound but outlook softer"The World Gold Council said central bank gold buying in Q1 was much weaker than previously estimated, with purchases of only 57 tons, down 187 tons from the prior view and the weakest start to a year in more than a decade."

"Demand then rebounded sharply in Q2, with net buying reaching a record 289 tons, led by Poland and China."

"Despite that recovery, the council expects central bank gold purchases to ease this year and likely fall below 2025 levels."

"The report also noted Q2 outflows from gold backed exchange traded funds, softer bar and coin demand, weaker jewelry demand, and lower recycled supply."

"Mining and metal sector flows remain weak in iFlow, indicating poor investor confidence in price levels."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

TL;DR: EUR/USD’s rebound reflects broad-based Euro strength as oil’s rebound since mid-week pushes markets toward the ECB’s own hawkish scenario, lifting September hike odds to roughly 70%.

Euro’s Broad-Based Strength Tells a Bigger Story EUR/USD has staged a notable rebound in the last 24 hours, but attributing the move solely to Dollar weakness misses a broader shift taking place in currency markets. The Dollar has indeed softened after investors pared expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Yet the Euro has strengthened not only against the Dollar, but against most major peers. That broad-based performance suggests investors are repricing the European Central Bank itself, rather than merely rotating away from weaker currencies.

Oil Is Moving the ECB’s Reaction Function in a Hawkish Direction The catalyst isn’t that the ECB has changed its policy stance, but that the assumptions feeding its reaction function have shifted. In its March staff projections, the ECB outlined a baseline scenario built around Brent crude averaging around $90 and European natural gas around €57/MWh through 2026, while an adverse scenario assumed oil near $120 and gas around €102/MWh — resulting in materially higher inflation.

That framework has become relevant again. At the ECB’s July 23 press conference, held as Brent broke above $100, President Christine Lagarde remarked that the earlier US-Iran ceasefire had been “short-lived,” leading to “serious developments on commodity markets.” She also stressed the ECB’s reaction function was “very well understood” by markets and projected inflation to remain well above target into the first half of 2027. This week’s renewed attacks involving Iran, US forces, and Saudi energy infrastructure have reversed much of the earlier decline in oil prices, pushing markets back toward the ECB’s own baseline energy scenario.

Oil Doesn’t Trigger Hikes Automatically Importantly, the ECB hasn’t become mechanically more hawkish simply because oil prices have risen. Lagarde has repeatedly emphasized that policymakers ultimately look for second-round effects — particularly stronger wage growth, firmer services inflation, and higher inflation expectations — before concluding inflation is becoming entrenched.

However, higher oil prices still matter because they shift the starting point. A sustained rise in energy costs lifts the projected path for headline inflation, making it easier for the Governing Council to conclude another rate hike is warranted. In effect, stronger oil prices lower the evidentiary burden for tightening even if second-round effects have yet to fully emerge, because the ECB’s own scenario analysis already treats prolonged energy shocks as sufficient to generate materially higher inflation.

GDP Removes One of the Dovish Arguments Today’s stronger-than-expected GDP data reinforce that assessment. Eurozone GDP expanded 0.4% qoq in the second quarter, beating expectations and rebounding from the flat first quarter. While hardly signaling an economic boom, the figures weaken one of the main dovish arguments — that growth is too fragile to absorb another rate increase. With activity proving more resilient than expected, the ECB has greater room to tighten policy without immediately risking recession.

Markets and Banks Are Converging on a September Hike That combination has fed directly into market pricing. Investors now assign roughly a 70% probability to a September rate hike, with much of this week’s repricing driven by renewed oil strength outweighing the more dovish tone that emerged from the ECB’s Sintra forum earlier this month.

Several major banks have moved in the same direction:

Deutsche Bank now describes a September increase to 2.50% as “highly likely” and close to a “done deal.” UOB expects one final 25 basis point hike followed by an extended pause. ING notes that around 23 basis points are already priced and argues the ECB has historically preferred to fully telegraph its policy moves. What to Watch Next Attention now turns to whether the oil rally proves durable. If tensions involving Iran continue to support energy prices into September, the ECB’s adverse inflation scenario will become increasingly relevant. Conversely, a renewed de-escalation could quickly reduce the urgency for another hike. Investors will also closely monitor upcoming remarks from ECB officials to see whether the stronger GDP data strengthens confidence that another move is becoming appropriate.

ActionForex’s Technical View on EUR/USD Technically, EUR/USD has improved but has yet to confirm a bullish reversal. The pair remains capped below 1.1499, which has switched from support to resistance. Encouraging signs are nevertheless emerging: the 4H MACD continues to strengthen, price has broken its near-term falling trend line, and the daily MACD continues to display bullish divergence. The pair is also finding support around the 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081, at 1.1353.

A decisive break above 1.1499, followed by sustained trading above the 55-day EMA at 1.1484, would strengthen the case that the decline from 1.2081 completed as a three-wave correction at 1.1323, opening the way toward 1.1848 and potentially higher.

Nevertheless, failure to overcome 1.1499 would keep the broader decline intact and leave scope for a deeper fall toward the 100% projection of 1.2081 to 1.1408 from 1.1848  at 1.1175.

Key Takeaways EUR/USD’s rebound reflects broad Euro strength against most major peers, not just Dollar weakness from fading Fed hike bets. Oil’s return above $100 is pushing markets toward the ECB’s own adverse inflation scenario, lowering the bar for another hike without requiring new second-round effects. Stronger-than-expected Q2 Eurozone GDP (0.4% qoq) removes the argument that growth is too fragile to absorb another rate increase. Markets now price roughly a 70% probability of a September ECB hike, with Deutsche Bank, UOB, and ING all leaning toward a move to 2.50%. EUR/USD needs a decisive break above 1.1499 and the 55-day EMA at 1.1484 to confirm the decline from 1.2081 has completed as a corrective structure.

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USD/JPY held near 163.50 on Thursday, with the yen retreating slightly after strengthening in the previous session. The currency had been supported by a broader dollar decline following the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.

However, three FOMC members voted in favour of a rate hike, and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh stressed that the pause should not be interpreted as a rejection of further policy tightening. Future decisions will continue to be data-dependent.

The Bank of Japan is also expected to keep rates unchanged on Friday but is likely to signal that further hikes remain possible to contain the yen’s decline. Verbal interventions from Japanese authorities have so far provided little relief, and the BOJ has offered no clear guidance on the timing of its next move.

Geopolitical tensions have once again intensified, with media reports indicating that the United States has resumed airstrikes on Iran following attacks on American forces in the region.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 163.60 level, currently extending between 163.20 and 163.89. A move higher towards 163.60 is expected, with scope for the trend to extend to 164.15 and then to 164.85. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing downwards, indicating the potential for short-term consolidation before further upside.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward move to the 163.20 level. A move higher towards at least 163.60 is expected next. A breakout above this level would open the way for a continuation towards 164.15. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and pointing upwards towards 80, indicating short-term bullish momentum.

Conclusion USD/JPY is trading in a narrow range as markets digest the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold rates steady, despite three dissenting votes and Chairman Warsh’s insistence that the pause does not signal the end of tightening. The dollar’s modest decline after the announcement provided some relief for the yen, although the currency remains vulnerable. Attention now turns to the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting on Friday, where rates are expected to be left unchanged but with hawkish signals to support the currency. Geopolitical risks have re-emerged following reports of renewed US airstrikes on Iran. Technically, the pair appears poised for further upside towards 163.60 and beyond, with the BOJ’s guidance and intervention risks likely to determine the near-term direction.

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The US dollar suffered its sharpest fall in the last two weeks following Kevin Warsh’s intention to shift the Fed’s responsibility for bringing inflation back to the 2% target onto the financial markets. The new Fed Chair emphasised that the rally in Treasury yields is tightening financial conditions and holding back price growth. Inflation expectations remain at acceptable levels.

Investors interpreted this rhetoric as an intention to extend the pause and avoid tightening monetary policy for as long as possible. The probability of a federal funds rate hike in September has fallen from 75% to 65%, and the likelihood of two hikes in 2026 has dropped from 51% to 44%. This led to a weakening of the US dollar against major peers, despite falling stock indices, a rally in Treasury bond yields and rising oil prices against the backdrop of the escalating conflict in the Middle East.

However, Commerzbank believes that the rally in Brent crude will not necessarily weigh on the EURUSD and GBPUSD. It is leading to a rise in inflation expectations in Europe and to an increased likelihood of policy tightening by the ECB and the Bank of England. At the same time, inflation expectations in the US are not rising, nor is the likelihood of Fed monetary tightening. According to DBS Group, Kevin Warsh’s withdrawal of his forward guidance is leaving US markets and the dollar stumbling in the dark. By contrast, the euro and the pound may benefit from central banks maintaining their guidance on the future path of interest rates.

In this regard, the BoE meeting could provide sterling support. Investors do not expect a rise in the repo rate but anticipate hawkish rhetoric amid the escalating conflict in the Middle East and rising energy prices. Oil and gas prices are higher than they were at the time of the Committee’s previous meeting.

Despite the Bank of England holding rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, the futures market is pricing in a 65% chance of a hike in September and nearly two increases by the end of this year. Bloomberg experts forecast that only two of the nine MPC members will vote for a rate hike. If the number is higher, GBPUSD could rise. 

Summary: GBPUSD may rise if the BoE holds rates but signals a hawkish policy stance, while a dovish Fed outlook pressures the US dollar. 

Chris Turner at ING writes that EUR/USD bounced modestly after the FOMC but was constrained by higher long-dated US yields and pressure on US growth stocks. ING expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to stay on hold in September, projecting EUR/USD near 1.17 by end-Q3, while in the near term the pair is seen trading in a 1.14–1.15 range, guided by Eurozone GDP and inflation data.

Fed hold view supports Euro outlook"EUR/USD enjoyed a modest bounce after the Fed press conference, but probably got caught in the crosscurrents."

"The drop in short-dated US real yields was a clear EUR/USD positive, but the sell-off in long-dated US rates and the pressure it put on growth stocks in the S&P 500 probably capped the EUR/USD move. Ultimately, the ING house call is that the Fed does not hike in September and EUR/USD ends the third quarter near 1.17."

"But high energy prices and a strong US economy make that Fed decision in September a very close call. Over the shorter term, we expect EUR/USD probably to trade out a 1.14-1.15 range and take its cue from the data."

"Europe today will see its first look at second quarter GDP prints and also indications of July inflation. Weak growth (the eurozone is expected at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter) probably will not stand in the way of an ECB hike in September, which is more than 90% priced. An uptick in July inflation data today and high oil prices should keep short-dated euro rates supported."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Pound-Dollar rate could remain under pressure unless the Bank of England delivers a sufficiently hawkish message after an inconclusive Federal Reserve decision. The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Thursday morning as markets turned their attention to the Bank of England following a divided Federal Reserve policy decision.

GBP/USD retreated towards $1.3345 during early European trading, extending its recovery from Wednesday’s pre-Fed lows but remaining under pressure from renewed safe-haven demand for the US Dollar.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.333627 (-0.23%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.144507 (-0.19%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.59918 (+0.17%)

Federal Reserve Holds Rates but Offers Little Guidance The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% on Wednesday, in line with the majority of economists’ forecasts.

The decision was nevertheless more divided than expected, with three policymakers voting for an immediate 25-basis-point rate increase because of persistent inflation risks.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2% target but provided few firm clues over the timing of any future policy move.

Warsh indicated that further tightening could be required if inflation pressures remained elevated, although he resisted offering the explicit forward guidance markets had become accustomed to under previous Fed leadership.

The initial market response was mixed. Short-term Treasury yields declined as investors reduced expectations of a September rate rise, while long-term yields climbed sharply amid concerns that the Fed was not acting decisively enough to contain inflation.

The Dollar initially weakened following the announcement but recovered during Asian trading as renewed US attacks on Iranian targets increased demand for defensive assets.

Pound Sterling Awaits Bank of England Guidance Attention now turns to Thursday’s Bank of England interest-rate announcement.

The Monetary Policy Committee is widely expected to leave Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%, placing the focus on the vote split, updated economic forecasts and Governor Andrew Bailey’s comments.

UK inflation fell to 2.6% in June, but policymakers continue to face uncertainty over the impact of elevated oil and gas prices on household costs and inflation expectations.

Markets have priced a meaningful risk of higher UK interest rates during the coming year, although economists remain divided over whether the Bank will ultimately need to tighten policy.

A hawkish vote split or a warning that renewed energy-price pressures could make inflation more persistent would offer the Pound support.

Sterling could struggle, however, if the Bank emphasises weak domestic growth, slowing private-sector wages or the risk that tighter financial conditions will weigh on the economy.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: BoE Tone to Determine Next Move The near-term Pound-Dollar outlook is likely to depend heavily on whether the Bank of England validates or pushes back against expectations for future rate increases.

A hawkish BoE announcement could allow GBP/USD to recover towards the $1.3400–$1.3430 area.

A move above this zone would ease immediate downside pressure and potentially bring $1.3480 back into view.

Conversely, a cautious policy statement or a less hawkish vote than markets expect could drive the Pound back towards $1.3300.

A sustained break below $1.3300 would expose the recent lows around $1.3220.

The Dollar will also remain sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with any further escalation likely to increase safe-haven demand and maintain upward pressure on global energy prices.

Later in the week, the latest US GDP figures could also influence the pair. Stronger-than-expected second-quarter growth would reinforce expectations that the US economy can withstand elevated interest rates and could provide additional support for the Dollar.

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USDJPY(Yen) pushes lower

The USDJPY(Yen) gained some momentum against the dollar as the pair hit a heavy rejection.

Prices were hitting double tops, but a bearish divergence suggested a deceleration in the upward momentum. 163.60 is now a firm support, and its breach would force leveraged long positions to close and trigger a correction towards 162.80. 164.00 is a key level to expect bulls to test to keep the upward bias intact.

XAUUSD finding more buyers

Bullion hit a firm rally as the Federal Reserve held firm with its interest rate.

The price seems to have secured a foothold around the 4070 level, with 4100 on the horizon. A series of higher highs combined with a tentative break above 4050 suggests mounting buying pressure. On the downside, 4040 is the immediate target to maintain some momentum. USOIL tests key resistance

WTI capitalises on ongoing Middle East tensions as the U.S. looks towards further retaliation.

A bounce off the critical top towards 86.00 shows that sellers have not thrown in the towel yet. The narrowing consolidation is due for a breakout, which will dictate the next move. The previous swing high of 88.50 is a major hurdle to lift before bulls can hope for a further rally. Conversely, 82.00 is the first support and the bulls’ last stronghold to prevent a bearish retreat.
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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.

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