Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The silver market has pulled back a bit from the $60 level to show signs of hesitation again for the week, as we are looking at the silver market with questions.

Silver Weekly Technical Analysis

Silver futures trade around 57.655, holding near the 60.000 level and above the 200-week EMA. Source: TradingView. The silver market has pulled back a bit from the $60 level to show signs of weakness again as we continue to see a lot of choppiness and noisy trading just under a big figure. The market rallying from here is a real possibility, with the market seemingly not wanting to break down, but we also have to worry about interest rates out there rising because rising interest rates typically work against silver. We have seen that play out here over the last couple of months.

Rising Interest Rates and Middle East Uncertainty Keep Silver in Stasis The market remains one that I think is in a bit of stasis at the moment. We just do not really know what to do, and why would we? The situation in the Middle East does not seem to be getting any better, and of course we have to consider that interest rates are extraordinarily high; that typically works against silver, as I said, but the market is trying to adjust to a new normal.

The $50 level below was an area that has been important multiple times in the past. There should be a ton of market memory there, all things being equal, and with that being the case, I think we need to be very cautious with this market. Position size will be crucial, as it typically is in a volatile market like this. Longer term, I do like silver, but right now I think we are just kind of hanging out here and waiting for some clarity for once. At this point, it’s a tricky situation.

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Gold futures trade around 4,094.0, consolidating near the 4,000.0 level while holding above the 200-week EMA. Source: TradingView. The gold market has gone back and forth during the course of the trading week as we continue to see a lot of choppiness and a lot of questions asked about what’s going on with the interest rate markets, the war in the Middle East, and just the US dollar in general. We have been trading between $4,000 on the bottom and $4,200 on the top, and with that being said, I think short-term traders are probably in charge. However, if we can break above the 50-week EMA, that would show a bit of momentum coming back into the market.

Rising Rates and Geopolitical Headlines Weigh on Long-Term Conviction I personally like gold longer-term, but as long as interest rates continue to jump, it’s difficult for a non-yielding asset like gold to have any real traction over the longer term. With that being said, I think we have to watch interest rates, headlines coming out of the Middle East and the reaction on interest rates, the US dollar, and then price action on gold. It’s a very noisy and messy type of situation that we have here, and I don’t think that changes anytime soon. Because of this, it can be a waiting game for longer-term traders out there.

Summary:

Higher-for-longer RBA interest rate expectations, persistent domestic inflation, and widening yield differentials against the U.S. Federal Reserve continue to fuel the currency's upward trajectory Broader risk-on sentiment is adding tailwinds, as investors favor growth-sensitive, higher-yielding currencies like the Aussie over safe havens amid improving global market mood The RBA's August 11 decision and upcoming US data could quickly reverse momentum The Australian dollar experienced significant gains this week. Yesterday, it rose over 1% against the US dollar, marking one of its most substantial single-day movements this year. This upward trend continued today, reaching an intraday monthly high of 0.7045.

Zoom out, and the pair is up roughly 9% over the past twelve months. So what’s behind this fresh burst of momentum, and is it something traders should lean into or treat with caution?

What Is Driving this Jump? The main reason for the Aussie dollar’s quick rise is the growing gap in monetary policy between Australia and the United States.

Back home, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock again took a hawkish tone. She warned that underlying inflation is still too high, meaning more interest rate hikes aren’t off the table.

The official RBA Monetary Policy Statement confirms the central bank is determined to bring inflation back to its target. They’re keeping the official cash rate at a high 4.35%. This firm approach has made markets expect a longer period of tight policy compared to other G10 countries.

Concurrently, the US dollar faced headwinds following macroeconomic reports showing a distinct deceleration in second-quarter US GDP growth.

The combination of weaker US economic growth figures and expectations of future monetary easing by the Federal Reserve has put downward pressure on US dollar yields. This situation is prompting a redirection of capital towards commodity-linked currencies, such as the Australian dollar, which offer higher yields.

Secondary support for the Australian dollar comes from commodity prices and global risk appetite. Australia’s export sector is closely tied to industrial metals and energy. Consequently, any improvement in global market sentiment generally benefits the Australian dollar.

Is It Sustainable? That’s the harder question. The rate-differential argument holds only as long as the data keeps cooperating. A hotter-than-expected US inflation print or a surprisingly resilient jobs report could quickly revive Fed-hawkish bets and cap the Aussie’s gains.

On the Australian side, the RBA’s next decision on August 11 is a real event risk. Any indication of concern regarding the currency’s current strength or a resurfacing of growth anxieties could rapidly shift market sentiment. In the near-term, the price range of 0.7045-0.7065 is likely to be the key resistance level to monitor.

What Traders and Investors Should Consider For short-term traders, this market movement appears driven by specific data points and upcoming events, rather than a fundamental change in valuation. Therefore, careful position sizing in anticipation of the RBA announcement and the next US inflation and payrolls data releases is more critical than attempting to capitalize on the immediate breakout.

For longer-term investors, including those with Australian equity or currency exposure, it’s worth remembering not to overreact to a single week’s move. Rate-differential shifts like this can unwind quickly if either central bank changes its guidance.

Why has the Australian dollar risen sharply against the US dollar?

A shifting interest-rate differential is driving it, and markets now expect a more dovish Fed while the RBA looks set to hold rates through 2026.

Should investors increase AUD exposure immediately?

A measured approach is preferable. Confirmation of the breakout and favourable upcoming data would strengthen the case for adding positions.

Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase interest rates again soon?

While the RBA remains hawkish, recent cooling inflation makes an extended rate hold much more likely.

Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to make a decisive move in either direction as the persistent US Dollar (USD) weakness was offset by a widening conflict in the Middle East. July employment data from the United States (US) could trigger a big reaction in Gold, while the near-term technical outlook highlights a lack of buyer interest.

Middle East crisis caps Gold’s upsideGold started the week with a bullish gap as geopolitical tensions eased after the US announced over the weekend that it put military operations against Iran on hold and Iran also paused its retaliatory strikes. However, the yellow metal erased a portion of its daily gains later on Monday after Iran clarified that they were not engaged in direct ceasefire talks with the US.

Reports of Saudi forces joining the conflict by launching attacks on Iran-aligned groups in Iraq as retaliation to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' (IRGC) drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities pointed to a widening conflict, rather than a return to diplomacy. Additionally, Iran claimed an attack on a US military base located in Jordan. Gold turned south on Tuesday and lost more than 1% on the day.

On Wednesday, the USD came under heavy selling pressure and allowed XAU/USD to stage a rebound. Although the Federal Reserve (Fed) refrained from delivering a dovish message following the July policy meeting, the decision to leave the policy rate unchanged in the range of 3.5%-3.75% triggered a USD selloff, as markets had priced in about a 30% chance of a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike heading into the event, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s comments in the post-meeting press conference scored a 7/10 on FXS Speechtracker versus a historic 6/10, underscoring a firmer commitment to the inflation fight. The repeated insistence that “only one target and it is 2%” and “we will deliver the 2% target,” alongside remarks that inflation “cannot be cured in 9 weeks” and that the committee “will not hesitate to act,” signaled a resolute, patient hawkish stance despite acknowledging “impressive resilience” in the economy. The emphasis on trend over short-term data, higher nominal and real yields, and a robust, non-inertial policy debate pointed to a Fed comfortable with tight conditions for longer.

According to TD Securities, the latest FOMC decision to leave interest rates unchanged has supported bullion, but it was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s stance that proved more pivotal. The bank notes that “the FOMC held interest rates steady, but it was Fed Chair Warsh’s willingness to look through an inflation shock and steer away from data dependency that has given gold a lift higher.” Even so, TD Securities cautions that the broader policy backdrop remains a constraint, stressing that “we continue to believe that market expectations for rate hikes will keep a lid on any material bullishness across precious metals.” 

The USD continued to weaken against its major rivals on Thursday and Gold managed to close the second consecutive day in positive territory. The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that the US’ Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.5% in the second quarter, falling short of the market expectation and the first-quarter’s 2.1% expansion. However, the unprecedented decline seen in USD/JPY suggested that the USD weakness was most likely caused by a suspected market intervention by Japanese authorities to support the Japanese Yen, rather than a change in the underlying fundamentals of the USD. With the dust settling down on Friday and investors shifting their focus back to the Middle East, the USD staged a rebound and XAU/USD turned south, retracing a majority of its two-day rebound. 

Gold investors to stay focused on Middle East, Fed outlookThe US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) reports on Monday and Wednesday, respectively. Ahead of Friday’s critical official employment report, however, PMI figures are unlikely to have a lasting impact on Gold’s performance. Still, the USD could struggle to find demand and help XAU/USD keep its footing in case either of the headline PMIs falls into contraction territory below 50.

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 57K in June and missed the market expectation of 110K by a wide margin, following three consecutive months of robust growth. A disappointing NFP print below 50K in July could revive concerns over worsening conditions in the labor market and weigh on the USD with the immediate reaction.

Conversely, a reading above 80K is likely to be seen as ‘good enough’ for the Fed to continue to prioritize taming inflation and support the USD. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that markets are currently pricing in about a 35% probability of a rate increase in September. If there is a significant upside surprise in NFP, with a print above 120K, markets could quickly position themselves for a September rate hike. Current market positioning suggests that the USD is likely to rally in this scenario and trigger another leg lower in XAU/USD heading into the weekend.

Economists at Wells Fargo anticipate a steady US labor backdrop over the coming months, noting that they “expect the job market to remain broadly stable, with payroll growth averaging ~80K per month and the unemployment rate holding near 4.2% for the remainder of the year.” While they acknowledge that the recent decline in unemployment “did not occur for the ‘right’ reasons,” Wells Fargo argues that the “sideways move in the unemployment rate signals that labor demand and supply are roughly in balance,” reinforcing the view of a jobs market that is neither overheating nor sharply weakening. 

Investors will also pay close attention to comments from Fed policymakers throughout the week, especially from Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, who dissented by voting in favor of a rate hike in the last Fed decision.

In case policymakers voice concerns over the inflation outlook and risks posed by the prolonged conflict in the Middle East, the USD is likely to stay resilient and limit XAU/USD’s recovery attempts. On the other hand, Gold could gain traction and push higher if US central bank officials support a steady policy for longer, dampening interest rate hike expectations by citing a cooling economy on the back of the disappointing second-quarter growth data.

Analysts at Commerzbank highlight that the latest Fed decision was far from unanimous, noting that “three of the five regional Fed presidents who serve on the Federal Open Market Committee voted in favor of a rate hike,” underscoring a meaningful hawkish contingent within the FOMC. They argue that Chair Kevin Warsh “apparently assumes that the financial markets will do the Fed’s work for it,” allowing higher market yields to shoulder more of the tightening burden in the near term. However, Commerzbank cautions that this strategy has clear limits: “If inflation does not slow noticeably soon, it will not be enough to merely speak resolutely. Then the Fed will also have to take action.” 

Finally, fresh developments surrounding the crisis in the Middle East are likely to continue to impact Gold’s valuation. A retreat in military action could support the precious metal, while a further escalation and expansion of the conflict could continue to feed into global inflation fears and hurt it.

FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls hesitateThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart fell short of clearing the 50 neutral level, and Gold’s break above the descending trend line and the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on Thursday failed to attract technical buyers.

The $3,950-$3,920 area stays as a key technical support, where the lower limit of the descending triangle formation and the beginning point of the November-February trend align. If Gold breaks below this region, $3,800 (static level, round level) could be seen as the next bearish target ahead of $3,720 (static level).

On the upside, $4,185 (50-day SMA) could be seen as the next resistance level in case Gold manages to confirm the $4,060-$4,070 (20-day SMA, descending trend line) area as support. If the bullish momentum builds up afterward, $4,240 (Fibonacci 78.6% retracement of the November-February uptrend) could be seen as an interim resistance level before $4,380 (static level).

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Interest Rates and Geopolitics Drive Volatility Longer term, I like silver a lot, very much so, and I do believe that silver will eventually turn things around, but it may have to drop yet again. The $50 level underneath is a large round, psychologically significant figure and an area where we’ve seen a lot of action going back to the Hunt brothers in the late 70s. Side note, I’ve actually had, when he was alive, conversations with Lamar Hunt; very interesting story when they tried to corner the physical silver market.

The $50 level was the peak back then, and then during the financial crisis it was the peak again. We broke through it late last year. Simple technical analysis suggests that maybe we have to retest that area. I don’t know if we will, but it wouldn’t be a huge surprise. If the US dollar continues to strengthen, that puts downward pressure on this market as well. Rallies at this point in time just don’t seem to have momentum.

UBS forecasts silver at $65 by September, $70 by year-end and $75 by June 2027, despite the metal remaining under heavy near-term pressure. Silver extended its decline on Thursday, falling more than 3% to around $57.22 an ounce and trading close to the bottom of the day’s range.

The metal has now lost around 17% since the start of 2026, having fallen sharply from its January peak above $120.

UBS nevertheless expects the market to recover over the coming quarters.

The bank’s latest global forecasts put silver at $65 by September 2026, rising to $70 in December, $75 by March 2027 and remaining at that level in June 2027.

That implies upside of more than 30% from current levels, although the forecast path points to a gradual recovery rather than an immediate return to this year’s highs.

Image: Silver price in USD intraday chart Silver fell steadily through Thursday’s session, with XAG/USD finishing close to its intraday low.

The outlook broadly tracks UBS’s bullish forecast for gold, although silver’s larger industrial component leaves it more sensitive to the global growth outlook.

Weak manufacturing demand, tighter financial conditions and a firmer Dollar can all weigh more heavily on silver than on gold, particularly during periods of risk aversion.

The latest price action remains fragile. XAG/USD is trading below both its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, while Thursday’s decline pushed the metal back towards the lower end of its recent range.

Silver Outlook: UBS Targets $75 by Mid-2027 UBS’s forecasts suggest the bank sees current weakness as temporary rather than the start of a deeper structural decline.

Its projected rise to $65 by September would mark the first stage of the recovery, with further gains expected as precious-metals demand improves and the drag from US interest-rate expectations begins to fade.

Image: XAG/USD Year-to-Date 2026 chart Silver remains down 17.1% in 2026 and well below its January high, although UBS expects prices to recover over the next year.

The immediate technical picture remains weak, but UBS’s $75 forecast indicates that the bank still expects silver to regain ground once monetary and investment conditions become more supportive.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Cable and EUR/USD are failing rallies [Video]

The Euro (EUR) weakens against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday as short-covering in the Greenback following the previous day’s sharp sell-off pushes EUR/USD back below 1.1500. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1488, easing from the six-week high of 1.1537 touched on Thursday.

Meanwhile, the war in the Middle East and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations continue to provide underlying support to the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.34, up 0.37% on the day.

Despite limited forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at this week’s monetary policy meeting, traders still see a meaningful chance that the central bank will raise interest rates later this year as elevated Oil prices keep inflation risks tilted to the upside.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently price in around a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September. Traders now await the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data due later on Friday.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range on Wednesday, with three policymakers voting for an immediate 25-basis-point rate hike.

Two of the three dissenters reinforced their hawkish positions on Friday. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said monetary policy is not restrictive enough and argued that the central bank should focus on inflation while the labour market remains stable.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said, “If inflation remains elevated, a potential series of small policy moves would be better than waiting and concluding that bolder actions were necessary.”

Across the Atlantic, preliminary Eurozone inflation data for July failed to lift the Euro. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.9% YoY, matching forecasts and edging up from 2.8% in June. Core inflation accelerated to 2.5% from 2.4%.

Eurozone inflation data keep ECB on track for September hikeAnalysts at Societe Generale note that the latest Euro area inflation release "points to limited indirect spillovers from the energy shock to consumer prices so far," even as energy-driven volatility keeps the outlook uncertain. They caution, however, that "this should not be taken as evidence that broader second-round effects will fail to materialise, as upstream energy price pressures typically take time to pass through supply chains."

In their view, "Friday's figures are consistent with the ECB's June forecast of 2.5% YoY for 3Q26" and, "together with the solid 2Q26 GDP print, the latest release should support another ECB rate hike in September."

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges lower on Friday as the US Dollar (USD) stabilizes following the previous day’s sharp sell-off, while hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations remain a key headwind for the non-yielding metal.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,0553, down 1.22% on the day after struggling to sustain gains above $4,100.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) slumped to a six-week low on Thursday amid suspected foreign exchange intervention by Tokyo to support the Japanese Yen (JPY). The DXY, which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 100.20, up 0.21% on the day.

The Greenback attracts fresh bids as the war in the Middle East supports demand, while the resulting rise in energy prices heightens inflation concerns and reinforces expectations that the Fed may raise interest rates. Nevertheless, the index remains on track to end July in negative territory.

Meanwhile, Gold looks set to snap a four-month losing streak as buyers continue to defend the psychological $4,000 level. However, the prospect of higher US interest rates is keeping US Treasury yields elevated and limiting the metal’s upside.

The Fed left interest rates unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range on Wednesday, with three policymakers voting for an immediate rate hike. Although Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stopped short of offering clear forward guidance, he reiterated the central bank’s commitment to bringing inflation under control.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders currently price in around a 66% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in September.

Traders now await the final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Expectations data, alongside the one-year and five-year Consumer Inflation Expectations, due later on Friday during American trading hours.

In the near term, XAU/USD is expected to remain range-bound as traders assess developments in the Middle East and the Fed’s interest-rate outlook, while technical indicators point to signs of stabilization.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD recovery remains capped below the 21-day SMA

On the daily chart, XAU/USD shows signs of stabilization after repeatedly finding support around the psychological $4,000 mark, while holding beneath a cluster of key moving averages.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 46 sits just below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued momentum rather than strong selling pressure. Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 28 suggests that the earlier downtrend is losing strength

On the downside, the $4,000 level provides immediate support, with a sustained break below this area exposing the next cushion near $3,850. On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,072.

A decisive move above this level could open the door towards the 50-day SMA at $4,185, while the 100-day SMA at $4,426 represents a stronger barrier.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Despite the sharp pullback across USD/JPY and the US Dollar Index (DXY), the broader bullish structure remains intact. The latest correction appears to have been driven primarily by profit-taking, renewed Bank of Japan intervention concerns, and positioning adjustments following USD/JPY's test of major long-term resistance, rather than a meaningful deterioration in the US dollar's macroeconomic outlook.

As long as Middle East tensions continue disrupting energy markets and supporting elevated crude oil prices, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. Together with resilient US Treasury yields, these factors continue to reinforce the broader bullish outlook for the US dollar.

Several important technical structures are now being tested, helping define whether the latest pullback represents a healthy correction within the prevailing uptrend or the beginning of a broader reversal.

Key patterns in focus USD/JPY's nearly 500-point correction coincided with the lower boundary of the April 2025–July 2026 ascending channel, renewed BOJ intervention expectations, and profit-taking after the pair tested the 164 resistance zone. That resistance also aligned with one of the year's strongest technical confluence zones, including the midpoint of both the 2025–2026 and 2022–2026 ascending channels, alongside overbought momentum conditions across multiple timeframes. The correction may have allowed momentum to reset before another attempt at fresh yearly highs. The DXY also corrected alongside USD/JPY as markets reassessed Federal Reserve decision following the July meeting. Despite the pullback, the index continues to respect its year-long bullish structure above major trend support. The broader bullish dollar outlook remains valid provided: DXY holds above the 99.30–100.30 support zone. USD/JPY remains above 157.50–158.00. Middle East supply disruptions continue supporting elevated crude oil prices. I covered these scenarios in my latest bi-weekly webinar.

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USD/JPY Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Following the nearly 500-point correction, USD/JPY is testing another major technical confluence zone.

Current support aligns with:

The April 2025–July 2026 ascending trendline. The 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025–July 2026 advance near 158.00–157.50. Oversold momentum conditions on the daily timeframe. Weekly RSI holding above the neutral 50 level. This technical confluence follows the rejection from the 164 resistance zone, where price simultaneously tested the midpoint of both the 2022–2026 and 2025–2026 ascending channels.

Taken together, these factors continue to favor the broader bullish structure unless price records a decisive weekly close below 157.00.

Bullish Scenario A recovery above 160.60 would shift attention back toward the major resistance zone between 163.70 and 164.70, where another period of consolidation or profit-taking could emerge.

A successful breakout above this area would expose the next upside objectives near:

167 170 These correspond to the upper boundary of the April–July ascending channel.

Bearish Scenario A decisive break below 157.00 would expose the next major support levels near:

155 152 149 These levels coincide with the lower boundary of the broader 2022–2026 ascending channel and represent the next significant technical support should the current bullish structure fail.

DXY Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

The recent pullback in the DXY occurred just below the critical 102.00 resistance zone, which remains the key level required to confirm another bullish breakout.

Despite the decline, price action continues to respect the ascending trendline connecting the higher lows established throughout 2026, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.

As long as the index remains above the 99.30–100.30 support zone, the long-term bullish outlook remains intact.

The daily chart therefore continues to suggest that the recent weakness represents a correction within the prevailing uptrend rather than the beginning of a broader reversal.

DXY Price Outlook: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: Trading view

The monthly chart continues to reinforce the US Dollar Index's broader bullish structure through several important technical developments:

An ascending channel dating back to 2008 continues to support the Dollar Index's long-term uptrend. Its lower boundary, near the 95–97 zone, remains the next major support area should the DXY close below 99.30, invalidating the 2026 bullish structure. Such a move could either trigger another long-term rebound or mark the beginning of a broader structural drawdown. The DXY is currently testing a major technical confluence that includes: The neckline of a potential double-bottom pattern, positioned between the long-term 2008 ascending channel and the 2022–2026 descending channel. The midpoint of the 2022–2026 descending channel. A multi-year support and resistance zone that has repeatedly defined price action since 2023. A monthly close above 102.00 would strengthen the bullish outlook, exposing the next resistance levels at 102.80, 104.50, and ultimately 107.00, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel in place since 2022.

Such a move would likely coincide with renewed geopolitical tensions, stronger inflationary pressures, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve. It would also increase downside pressure across major currencies and precious metals, potentially pushing them toward fresh yearly lows before a longer-term reversal emerges.

As long as Middle East tensions persist, crude oil prices remain supported above the $70–80 per barrel region, and dollar pairs continue to hold above their year-long bullish structures, downside risks across global markets are likely to remain elevated.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

USD/JPY recovered to 160.60 on Friday following a sharp drop the previous day. Investors believe the Bank of Japan intervened to support the yen, although there has been no official confirmation.

The Bank of Japan also held its policy meeting today, keeping the rate unchanged at 1.0%. Borrowing costs remain at their highest level since September 1995, after a 25-basis-point hike in June.

The decision was in line with market expectations and was passed by a vote of eight to one. Board member Hajime Takata dissented, advocating for a further rate increase and highlighting the risk of accelerating inflation due to heightened demand pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.

In its quarterly outlook, the BOJ lowered its core inflation forecast for fiscal year 2026 to 2.5% from 2.8%, attributing the revision to a gradual weakening of the impact from previously elevated oil prices.

At the same time, the BOJ slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5%, supported by robust domestic demand and government measures aimed at reducing household energy spending over the summer.

For fiscal year 2027, the core inflation forecast was raised to 2.4% from 2.3%, while GDP growth expectations were trimmed to 0.8% from 0.9%.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 159.65 level, currently extending between 159.65 and 160.83. A move lower towards 159.66 is expected today, followed by a move higher to 161.44. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward move to 158.53, followed by a rise to 160.86. A move lower towards at least 159.66 is expected next, followed by a move higher to 161.44. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.

Conclusion USD/JPY saw significant volatility following a suspected intervention by Japanese authorities, although no official confirmation has been provided. The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 1.0%, as widely expected, with one dissenting vote calling for further tightening. The central bank revised its inflation and growth forecasts, lowering its core inflation outlook for 2026 while slightly raising GDP expectations for the same period. The mixed signals from the BOJ, combined with lingering geopolitical risks and speculation over further intervention, have left markets uncertain. Technically, USD/JPY may see a short-term pullback towards 159.66 before resuming its upward trajectory towards 161.44. The pair’s direction will depend on further signals from Japanese authorities and global risk sentiment.

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USD/JPY recovered to 160.60 on Friday following a sharp drop the previous day. Investors believe the Bank of Japan intervened to support the yen, although there has been no official confirmation.

The Bank of Japan also held its policy meeting today, keeping the rate unchanged at 1.0%. Borrowing costs remain at their highest level since September 1995, after a 25-basis-point hike in June.

The decision was in line with market expectations and was passed by a vote of eight to one. Board member Hajime Takata dissented, advocating for a further rate increase and highlighting the risk of accelerating inflation due to heightened demand pressures linked to the Middle East conflict.

In its quarterly outlook, the BOJ lowered its core inflation forecast for fiscal year 2026 to 2.5% from 2.8%, attributing the revision to a gradual weakening of the impact from previously elevated oil prices.

At the same time, the BOJ slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for fiscal year 2026 to 0.6% from 0.5%, supported by robust domestic demand and government measures aimed at reducing household energy spending over the summer.

For fiscal year 2027, the core inflation forecast was raised to 2.4% from 2.3%, while GDP growth expectations were trimmed to 0.8% from 0.9%.

Technical analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 159.65 level, currently extending between 159.65 and 160.83. A move lower towards 159.66 is expected today, followed by a move higher to 161.44. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward move to 158.53, followed by a rise to 160.86. A move lower towards at least 159.66 is expected next, followed by a move higher to 161.44. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.

ConclusionUSD/JPY saw significant volatility following a suspected intervention by Japanese authorities, although no official confirmation has been provided. The Bank of Japan kept rates unchanged at 1.0%, as widely expected, with one dissenting vote calling for further tightening. The central bank revised its inflation and growth forecasts, lowering its core inflation outlook for 2026 while slightly raising GDP expectations for the same period. The mixed signals from the BOJ, combined with lingering geopolitical risks and speculation over further intervention, have left markets uncertain. Technically, USD/JPY may see a short-term pullback towards 159.66 before resuming its upward trajectory towards 161.44. The pair’s direction will depend on further signals from Japanese authorities and global risk sentiment.

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The 30-year yield near 5.24% did not stop the rally and that is worth noting. The highest long-end print since 2007 is sitting right there and silver is climbing anyway. The dollar unwind is overpowering it for now. Two weeks of long-dollar positioning built ahead of the Fed meeting is coming off, and that flow matters more to silver today than what the bond market thinks about inflation over the next decade.

I would not count on that lasting. Warsh gave the market no dot plot, no projections and no promise to wait. He set it up so the next inflation print or payrolls report can put September right back on the table overnight. The dollar stops falling the moment that happens, and silver loses its one support.

Crude Decides How Long the Window Stays Open Oil is the reason the September debate did not die Wednesday. Renewed fighting in the Middle East has kept crude elevated, and the next inflation report picks up more of that energy cost than June’s data did. The three dissenters already have their argument on the record. One more firm print hands them the data to act on it.

Silver has a window right now between the Fed hold and the next set of numbers. Crude staying above $85 is what makes that window narrow. Every day oil holds here is another day the hawks can point to and say the inflation problem is getting worse, not better.

What to Watch September odds are the cleaner signal right now. If hike expectations keep falling and the dollar continues to unwind, silver holds the bid. If the odds start rebuilding on the next data release or another oil headline, the dollar finds a floor and sellers come back. FedWatch tells the story faster than trying to parse every sentence from Warsh’s press conference.

Silver has been sitting in the retracement zone for over a week and the Fed did not break it out. The accumulation pattern underneath the market gives buyers a foundation, but the longer-term investors building that base are not the ones who drive the breakout. Short-term speculators have to step in aggressively above the zone, and they are not going to do it with the 30-year above 5% and crude keeping the next inflation print in doubt. The rate picture has to keep cooperating or this range resolves lower.

ING’s commodities team reports that Gold demand was steady in 2Q 2026, with total demand flat year-on-year at 1,269 tonnes as strong central bank purchases balanced weaker ETF demand. They note net ETF outflows amid higher inflation and rate expectations and a stronger Dollar, while revised data imply central bank Gold buying in 2026 will likely fall below 2025 levels.

Steady demand with softer 2026 outlook"According to the World Gold Council, total gold demand (including OTC transactions) was unchanged year-on-year at 1,269 tonnes in 2Q 2026, as strong central bank purchases offset weaker investor demand through gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Total demand reached 2,522 tonnes in the first half of the year, up 2% YoY."

"Gold ETFs recorded 45 tonnes of net outflows in the second quarter, reflecting growing inflation and interest rate expectations, along with a stronger US dollar."

"Central bank purchases increased 62% YoY to 289 tonnes in 2Q26, rebounding strongly from 1Q and remaining consistent with recent buying trends."

"However, revised data showed that central banks added only 57 tonnes in 1Q26, 187 tonnes below the April estimate, marking the weakest first-quarter demand in more than a decade."

"As a result, central bank gold purchases in 2026 are now expected to be lower than in 2025."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The USD/CAD pair seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the early European session on Friday, consolidating its recent losses to the lowest level since June 17, touched the previous day. However, a combination of supporting factors assists spot prices in holding above the 1.4000 psychological mark.

The US Dollar (USD) regains some positive traction as inflation risks stemming from volatile energy prices keep inflation risks and the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets in play. Furthermore, retreating crude oil prices undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and act as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. The lack of any meaningful buyers, however, warrants some caution before confirming that a three-day-old downtrend has run its course.

From a technical perspective, this week's breakdown below the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) sits below zero with the line in negative territory, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 37. Momentum indicators hint that downside momentum remains dominant despite the proximity of initial support.

However, it will be prudent to wait for some follow-through selling and acceptance below the 1.4000 mark before positioning for deeper losses. The USD/CAD pair might then weaken to the 38.2% Fibo. retracement around 1.3979, which is followed by deeper retracement levels at 1.3897 and 1.3814, where the 50.0% and 61.8% Fibo levels could slow further losses.

On the topside, any recovery would first need to overcome resistance at the 23.6% retracement near 1.4082, with the 200-period SMA at 1.4130 capping the broader upside. Failure to clear the said hurdle will reinforce the prevailing bearish structure while the USD/CAD pair remains below it.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/CAD 4-hour chart

Canadian Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies this week. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-1.00%-0.81%-1.96%-0.48%-0.39%-1.13%-1.03%EUR1.00%0.17%-0.98%0.53%0.62%-0.13%-0.04%GBP0.81%-0.17%-1.29%0.35%0.44%-0.30%-0.21%JPY1.96%0.98%1.29%1.54%1.64%0.88%0.89%CAD0.48%-0.53%-0.35%-1.54%0.06%-0.65%-0.56%AUD0.39%-0.62%-0.44%-1.64%-0.06%-0.74%-0.65%NZD1.13%0.13%0.30%-0.88%0.65%0.74%0.09%CHF1.03%0.04%0.21%-0.89%0.56%0.65%-0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar (USD) gives back some of its early gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY), but is still 0.5% higher at around 160.30 during the European trading session on Friday. The USD/JPY pair performed positively in the opening session after a juggernaut decline the previous day, as the US Dollar rebounded.

The pair fell like a house of cards on Thursday due to weakness in the US Dollar amid ambiguity over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, and an intervention from Japan to support the Japanese Yen.

In the Fed’s policy announcement on Wednesday, the Fed left interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75%, warned of upside inflation risks, and retained its position on “no forward-looking guidance”.

Yen intervention underscores Japan’s concern over currency weaknessCommerzbank’s analysts note that “the stage was set” for official action, with yesterday’s intervention in the foreign exchange market by Japan’s Ministry of Finance “clearly” demonstrating that the government is worried about the Japanese Yen being “too weak.” They add that explicit “support from the US Treasury Department” signaled the move would “likely be met with a favorable response internationally,” reinforcing the sense that Tokyo’s efforts to stabilize the currency have backing from key international partners.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has left interest rates unchanged at 1%, and has reiterated a hawkish monetary policy guidance, while warning that risks to inflation remain tilted to the upside. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also said in the press conference, “Here is risk that underlying CPI will deviate upward to level above 2% price stability target,” Ueda said.

USD/JPY technical analysis

USD/JPY trades higher at around 160.30, but is keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 162.23.

The pair has retreated sharply from recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35.94 hovers just above oversold territory, suggesting downside momentum remains in place even if short-term selling pressure is starting to ease.

On the topside, the 20-day EMA at 162.23 stands as immediate resistance and the first pivot that bulls would need to reclaim to alleviate the current downside bias. Looking down, Thursday's low at 158.00 is the key support level; a break below the same would expose it to 157.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bank of Japan FAQs The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.

A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after two days of gains, trading around $58.10 per troy ounce during the early European hours on Friday. The non-yielding white metal is facing notable challenges amid expectations for tighter Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in an over 65% chance of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.

Fed stays resolutely hawkish as Warsh doubles down on 2% targetWarsh’s press conference tone was more hawkish than usual, with the FXS Speechtracker score at 7/10 compared to the established baseline of 6/10, underscoring a firmer commitment to the 2% inflation goal. The emphasis that “inflation cannot be cured in 9 weeks” and that the Committee “will not hesitate to act” signals a willingness to keep policy restrictive for longer, even as Warsh highlights “impressive resilience” in the economy and a solid labor market. Warsh’s insistence that there was a “misimpression” about tolerance for higher inflation and the clear pledge to “deliver the 2% target” reinforce a message that any perceived softening or tolerance for overshooting is off the table, a stance that typically supports the Dollar via higher-for-longer rate expectations.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index jumped by 18.94 points to 147.58, firmly in hawkish territory and consistent with the above-baseline FXS Speechtracker score. A level this elevated signals that, in aggregate, Fed communication is being interpreted as materially more hawkish than neutral, reinforcing upside risks for the Dollar and keeping rate-sensitive assets on alert for further tightening or a prolonged restrictive stance.

FXS Fed Sentiment Index: Daily ChartThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is holding gains after two days of losses, trading around 100.20 at the time of writing. Silver struggles as investors face a higher opportunity cost holding it compared to dollar-denominated interest-bearing assets like US Treasury bonds.

Despite these headwinds, the precious metal found some support this week after the US Federal Reserve opted to leave interest rates unchanged, even as mounting inflationary pressures lingered due to renewed hostilities in the Middle East.

However, broader inflation concerns may ease alongside cooling oil prices, driven by positive diplomatic developments. Progress in US-Iran talks aimed at securing the Strait of Hormuz has helped calm energy markets.

Adding to the geopolitical shift, US President Donald Trump announced a historic deal outlining the complete disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a major breakthrough reportedly confirmed by senior Hamas officials.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Euro (EUR) is trading practically flat against the British Pound (GBP) on Friday, as bears kept testing the base of the ascending trendline from mid-July highs, around 0.8555, following Thursday’s reversal from 0.8585 highs. The Pound pared some losses on Thursday as the Bank of England (BoE) hinted at interest rate hikes if the war in Iran escalates.

The BoE left its Bank Rate on hold at 3.75%, as widely expected on Thursday, but the three hawkish dissenters within the committee and Governor Bailey's openness to tighten monetary policy if the Middle East conflict pushes Oil prices beyond $100 provided a fresh impulse to a weakening Pound.

In Europe, data released on Thursday revealed that the German preliminary Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) accelerated to a 2.8% year-on-year (YoY) rate from 2.4% in June. These figures followed strong preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures in Germany and the Eurozone, which add to the case for a European Central Bank (ECB) rate hike in September and keep Euro dips limited.

Technical Analysis: Euro bulls have run out of steam

EUR/GBP trades at 0.8560 with price action contained within an upward-sloping channel, but with momentum indicators hinting at a faltering bullish traction. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovers just above the neutral 50 line, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) dips further within negative levels, suggesting waning momentum although not yet a decisive trend shift.

Sellers would have to breach the mentioned channel base, at 0.8555, and Wednesday's low at 0.8545 to confirm a bearish reversal and shift the focus to the July 23 and 25 lows around 0.8530.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Thursday's high of 0.8586, ahead of the channel top, near 0.8595, and the support area of late June, between 0.8600 and 0.8605, which is likely to act as resistance now.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.08%0.58%0.03%-0.07%0.10%0.17%EUR-0.09%-0.02%0.48%-0.06%-0.16%-0.00%0.08%GBP-0.08%0.02%0.47%-0.02%-0.15%0.02%0.10%JPY-0.58%-0.48%-0.47%-0.51%-0.62%-0.46%-0.38%CAD-0.03%0.06%0.02%0.51%-0.10%0.07%0.15%AUD0.07%0.16%0.15%0.62%0.10%0.16%0.23%NZD-0.10%0.00%-0.02%0.46%-0.07%-0.16%0.09%CHF-0.17%-0.08%-0.10%0.38%-0.15%-0.23%-0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The GBP/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.3445 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Heightened Middle East tensions and rising global oil prices provide some support to a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP). The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be published later on Friday. 

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Thursday denounced the US attack on civilian homes on Qeshm Island, describing it as a continuation of American crimes in the southern Iranian cities of Minab and Lamerd. Earlier on Thursday, the US launched missile strikes across southern Iran, including Qeshm Island as well as parts of Bushehr, Fars and Khuzestan provinces.

Financial markets have priced in a more than 90% chance of the Bank of England (BoE) keeping borrowing costs on hold, with the outside chance of a hike. Traders expect a rise in borrowing costs to 4.0% before the end of the year.

BoE seen on hold as softer UK inflation eases pressureAnalysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the Bank of England is “widely expected to keep the policy rate at 3.75% for a fifth straight meeting,” arguing that a “less worrisome UK inflation backdrop gives the BoE room to stand pat.” In their view, the recent moderation in price pressures allows policymakers to maintain the current stance without rushing to adjust rates, reinforcing expectations for an extended pause in the tightening cycle.

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, GBP/USD holds a modest bullish bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band around, suggesting underlying dip-buying interest after recent consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at about 57 stays in positive but not overbought territory, hinting that upside momentum is constructive yet still measured.

On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 100-day SMA at 1.3400, reinforced by the nearby Bollinger middle band at roughly 1.3390, while a deeper cushion emerges at the lower Bollinger band near 1.3265 should sellers regain control. On the topside, initial resistance aligns with the upper Bollinger band around 1.3515; a sustained break above this cap would open the door for the July 15 high of 1.3558. 

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 492.54 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 495.39 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,744.95 per tola from SAR 5,778.18 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

492.54

10 Grams

4,925.45

Tola

5,744.95

Troy Ounce

15,319.64

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 36,276.84 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,491.47 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to PKR 423,126.40 per tola from PKR 425,629.40 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PKR

1 Gram

36,276.84

10 Grams

362,768.80

Tola

423,126.40

Troy Ounce

1,128,337.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,501.02 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,578.45 it cost on Thursday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,809.30 per tola from INR 146,712.60 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,501.02

10 Grams

125,009.40

Tola

145,809.30

Troy Ounce

388,815.00

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

BOJ keeps rates unchanged in July, as expected  Single dissent points towards slower policy normalisation USD/JPY rebounds extends beyond 160 following rate decision Near-term intervention threat clouds bullish USD/JPY outlook Intervention first, tightening later? The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged at 1% in July, as widely expected by markets. There had been some speculation the BOJ may deliver a surprise rate increase following likely coordinated intervention between Japan's Ministry of Finance, the US Treasury and South Korean officials on Thursday, but that failed to materialise.

Notably, there was only one dissenter, Takata, who voted in favour of a 25 basis point increase, arguing upside risks to prices had increased sufficiently to warrant a more pre-emptive policy response.

That's important because previous BOJ tightening episodes have generally been preceded by meetings where multiple dissenters emerged. The fact there was only one on this occasion suggests, at face value, that September may be off the table for a hike, with October or December looking more likely for the next move, broadly in line with current market pricing.

Growth optimism offsets softer inflation Beyond the policy decision, the updated Outlook Report continued to point towards further policy normalisation, even if the timing of the next move remains opaque.

While the Bank lowered its near-term inflation forecasts, it remained optimistic on the outlook for economic activity, expanding its commentary on AI, semiconductor-related investment and business spending as important drivers of growth.

Source: BOJ, FOREX.com

On inflation, the BOJ said wage and price-setting behaviour among firms is continuing to shift, helping underpin its expectation that underlying CPI inflation will gradually move towards its 2% target over time. However, it acknowledged uncertainty remains elevated, particularly around global trade policy, overseas economic activity and developments in financial markets.

Overall, there was little in the forecasts to suggest the direction of travel for policy has changed. While the timing of the next rate increase remains data dependent, the BOJ still appears biased towards further gradual tightening.

Yen weakness quickly returns The initial market reaction suggests traders have interpreted the outcome as dovish, with the yen resuming its slide after Thursday's spectacular rally. With USD/JPY already back above 160, it raises fresh questions about exactly what Japanese authorities were trying to achieve through what appeared to be coordinated intervention.

At face value, it may have been conducted to provide room for the BOJ to deliver a more dovish outcome without immediately inviting another wave of yen selling. Had intervention not taken place, leaving policy unchanged may have risked a far stronger market reaction and another push towards fresh multi-decade highs in USD/JPY.

While you wouldn’t know from the market reaction, the risk of further intervention remains elevated. If Japanese authorities revert to the playbook seen earlier this year, intervention may come in waves over several days rather than as a single event. That's an acute risk for anyone chasing USD/JPY higher.

Attention now shifts to Governor Ueda's press conference at 3:30pm Tokyo time. If history is any guide, he has a habit of sounding more dovish than the policy statement, keeping the risk of renewed USD/JPY upside firmly in play.

160.73 becomes the focal point

Source: TradingView

The first thing that stands out on the daily chart is just how respectful USD/JPY remains to known technical levels, despite what appears to have been intervention from Japanese authorities. The violent unwind stalled almost perfectly at the confluence of the 200-day simple moving average and 157.92, a former breakout level from earlier this year, before buyers stepped back in.

That rebound has since taken USD/JPY back to 160.73, the former record high set earlier this year. While the pair briefly traded above that level, it has so far struggled to establish a foothold, leaving it as an obvious pivot for traders.

For those anticipating further bouts of likely intervention, 160.73 looms as a level to build setups around, allowing traders to consider initiating shorts beneath the level with a stop above, targeting a move back towards where the bearish unwind on Thursday stalled just beneath 158. However, just because earlier intervention episodes came in waves doesn't mean that pattern will necessarily be repeated this time.

Conversely, if USD/JPY can reclaim 160.73 and hold above it, it would suggest intervention-related selling may have run its course for now, allowing traders to consider initiating long positions above the level with a stop beneath, targeting a move towards the former uptrend from early May, found today just beneath 162. Above that, 162.84 and then 164 become the next upside levels to watch.

Even though the longer-term trend remains undeniably bullish, favouring buying dips, the ongoing threat of further intervention means chasing USD/JPY higher near term looks unappealing.

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down almost 1% to near $58.40 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds slightly, attempting to snap a three-day losing streak.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% higher to near 100.20.

Technically, a higher US Dollar makes the Silver price an unfavorable risk-reward bet for investors.

However, the Silver price could rebound as the outlook of the US Dollar has become vulnerable following the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which it left interest rates unchanged and committed to “no forward-guidance” policy.

Dollar slides as Fed rhetoric fails to convince marketsStrategists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that the USD “dropped sharply for two reasons.” They explain that, first, “markets unwounded the residual 30% odds of a July hike,” and second, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “failed to turn tough inflation rhetoric into a credible policy.” BBH warns that Warsh “may now find himself in a more consequential battle with markets that can further raise long-term yields, weaken the dollar, and force the Fed into a more painful response.”

Elevated oil prices due to constrained global energy supply amid the ongoing military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran are likely to keep the Silver price’s upside limited.

Higher oil prices boost global inflation expectations, which forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions. Such a scenario bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades lower at around $58.36, keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $58.91. The positioning below this short-term trend gauge suggests rallies remain corrective for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 46 stays in neutral territory, hinting at subdued downside momentum rather than an outright oversold condition.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 20-day EMA at $58.91; a daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the door to a deeper recovery. Looking up, the next resistance level would be the July 22 high at $60.94.

On the downside, the July 28 low at $56.64 and the July 17 low at $54.77 are key support levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Euro (EUR) extends the intraday rally to near 185.20 against the Japanese Yen (JPY) after the Bank of Japan’ (BoJ) monetary policy decision during the Asian trading session on Friday. The BoJ has kept interest rates steady at 1%, as expected, with an 8-1 majority.

BoJ member Hajime Takata dissented from the vote to hold and favored a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate hike to push rates to 1.25%.

The Japanese central bank has warned that medium-to-long-term inflation expectations are set to climb and has reiterated that the monetary policy path will remain on the upside. “Will keep raising interest rates in response to economic, price trends and financial conditions,” BoJ said.

The BoJ was already anticipated to do so as it is unlikely to deliver back-to-back rate hikes to build pressure on the economy. In the June meeting, the Japanese central bank raised borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 1%, the highest level not seen since 1995.

On the Eurozone front, investors await the preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July, which will be published at 09:00 GMT. The inflation data from Germany and Spain showed on Monday that inflationary pressures grew at a faster-than-expected pace.

According to TD Securities, Eurozone inflation is likely to firm only modestly in the latest print, with the bank expecting “euro area HICP to pick up only slightly to 2.9% y/y (mkt: 2.9%; prior: 2.8%), as the recent rebound in energy is largely offset by softer food and core goods prices.” The analysts note that “airfares may provide some upside given higher jet fuel costs and the start of the summer holiday season,” but they judge that “broader services HICP is likely to remain contained, with limited evidence so far of a wider pass-through of the energy shock.” In this context, TD Securities concludes that “we see the core inflation number remaining steady at 2.4% y/y (mkt: 2.4%, prior: 2.4%).”

Signs of acceleration in inflationary pressures in the Eurozone would prompt expectations of more interest rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) in the near term.

Bank of Japan FAQs The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.

A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.