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Gold prices rose in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 7,967.72 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,925.57 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold increased to PHP 92,933.79 per tola from PHP 92,442.31 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

7,967.72

10 Grams

79,679.73

Tola

92,933.79

Troy Ounce

247,816.60

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 179.40 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency cross is extending a bearish near-term tone as price holds beneath both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The short-term EMA remains below the longer 50-period EMA, reinforcing downside pressure, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator at 27.71 slips into oversold territory, hinting that while sellers are in control, the pace of the decline could soon moderate.

The EUR/JPY cross may retest the initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3. Further support lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross rises toward the nine-day EMA at 184.07, followed by 185.02. A break above these moving averages would cause a bullish shift and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.06%-0.63%0.09%-0.13%-0.08%0.15%EUR0.08%0.13%-0.61%0.16%-0.07%0.04%0.18%GBP-0.06%-0.13%-0.70%0.00%-0.20%-0.09%0.08%JPY0.63%0.61%0.70%0.66%0.42%0.54%0.67%CAD-0.09%-0.16%-0.00%-0.66%-0.23%-0.12%0.00%AUD0.13%0.07%0.20%-0.42%0.23%0.10%0.29%NZD0.08%-0.04%0.09%-0.54%0.12%-0.10%0.19%CHF-0.15%-0.18%-0.08%-0.67%-0.01%-0.29%-0.19% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Gold (XAU/USD) struggles to capitalize on a modest weekly bullish gap opening and remains below the $4,100 mark through the Asian session. The US Dollar (USD) stages a modest recovery from its lowest level since June 17 and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the commodity. The upside for the USD, however, seems limited amid renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations, which, in turn, helps the non-yielding bullion to preserve gains above the $4,050 level.

US President Donald Trump called off planned attacks on Iran over the weekend, claiming that Mideast allies have reached the parameters of a deal on Tehran's nuclear program and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Trump further told reporters that the US and Iran are set to resume negotiations Monday afternoon, fueling optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old war. Adding to this, the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase production in September triggered a steep decline in crude oil prices. This eases inflation fears and tempers bets for a more aggressive Fed policy tightening, which should keep a lid on any meaningful USD appreciation and support the Gold price.

Traders, however, seem hesitant to place fresh bearish bets around the USD and opt to wait for further developments around the Middle East crisis. Hence, the focus remains glued to incoming geopolitical headlines, which might continue to infuse volatility in financial markets and drive the USD demand. Apart from this, traders will take cues from important US macro data, scheduled at the start of a new month, for some meaningful impetus. A busy week kicks off with the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI later this Monday. The market attention, meanwhile, stays on the crucial US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis: Gold remains confined in a familiar range as bulls seem hesitant below $4,100From a technical perspective, nothing seems to have changed much as the XAU/USD pair remains confined in a familiar range below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Against the backdrop of the recent downfall, this might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the downside.

Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (12, 26, close, 9) stays in positive territory with a reading near 11.6, hinting at tentative upside momentum. However, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.1 remains neutral and suggests only limited directional conviction. Hence, any further move up might struggle to find acceptance above $4,100.

The said handle is followed by the top boundary of the trading range, just ahead of the $4,200 mark, which, if cleared decisively, could lift Gold to the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33. Bulls would need to reclaim a technically significant barrier to alleviate the prevailing bearish tone and reopen the path toward higher highs.

On the downside, immediate support is inferred from recent swing lows around the $3,976–$4,000 area, where buyers previously emerged. A convincing break below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to further declines.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1535 during the early European trading hours on Monday, bolstered by improved risk sentiment. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) after reports that US President Donald Trump had called off an attack on Iran and talks between the two sides would happen on Monday. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran negotiations. 

Traders brace for the German Retail Sales data for June, which is due later on Monday. If the reports come in weaker than expected, this could drag the shared currency lower. On the US docket, the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data will be published. 

In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1533. The pair remains capped in the near term as spot holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1569, keeping the broader tone heavy despite the latest bounce. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.5 shows firm positive momentum, but with price still under the key trend average, this strength merely hints at a corrective rebound within a broader bearish backdrop.

On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1529, with the 20-day SMA middle band at 1.1430 and the lower band near 1.1331 marking deeper cushions if selling resumes. On the topside, a daily close above the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 would be needed to ease bearish pressure and open the way for a more sustained recovery toward higher levels.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Analysts at Scotiabank note that the Euro received “a modest lift” earlier in the session after French CPI data “came in well above expectations,” but stress that the support quickly faded as “the impact was short-lived as broader themes took hold.” They add that “comments from the ECB have been limited and the speaking calendar is empty over the next week or so,” leaving the currency largely to trade on prevailing macro drivers rather than fresh policy signals.

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Gold prices rose in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,454.56 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,367.38 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold increased to INR 145,266.90 per tola from INR 144,250.70 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,454.56

10 Grams

124,544.70

Tola

145,266.90

Troy Ounce

387,376.30

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Silver price (XAG/USD) rises after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around $58.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Monday. Silver prices climb as market sentiment shifted following statements from US President Donald Trump, who announced that peace talks with Iran are set to resume on Monday. The prospect of diplomacy helped send oil prices lower, offering relief to investors concerned about rising inflation and the broader outlook for interest rates.

President Trump noted that key Middle Eastern allies, including Saudi Arabia, had urged him to halt planned military strikes in favor of a diplomatic solution, while he reiterated his call for the immediate reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Beyond geopolitical developments, investors are turning their attention to a busy week of US labor market data, anchored by Friday's closely watched monthly jobs report. This economic focus comes on the heels of the Federal Reserve's recent decision to hold interest rates steady.

However, that decision was not unanimous; three Fed officials dissented, cautioning that delaying action could force the central bank into more aggressive policy tightening down the road. In response to these mixed signals, financial markets are currently pricing in roughly a 68% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Fed's upcoming September meeting.

According to analysts at Commerzbank, the outlook for the other bullion, gold, remains constrained by the policy path in the US. They argue that “the persistent expectation of Fed interest rate rises should counteract any rise in the gold price,” with ongoing tightening expectations limiting the scope for a sustained move higher even after the recent post-meeting spike.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Key Highlights

EUR/USD started a fresh increase above 1.1500. It traded above a key bearish trend line with resistance at 1.1410 on the 4-hour chart. USD/JPY declined heavily below the 157.50 support zone. Gold seems to be consolidating above the $4,000 zone. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro formed a base above 1.1350 against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1440 and 1.1500 resistance levels.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.1550. There was a close above 1.1500, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

A high was formed at 1.1558, and the pair is now consolidating gains. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find support near 1.1480 or the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1353 swing low to the 1.1558 high.

If there are more losses, the pair could find bids near the 50% Fib retracement level at 1.1455. The main support could be 1.1430 or the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).

A downside break and close below 1.1430 might send the pair toward 1.1350. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1300.

On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1550. The next major resistance might be 1.1580. A close above 1.1580 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1620. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1650.

Looking at Gold, the bears are putting up a tough fight, and they might aim for a drop below the $3,950 support.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

US ISM Manufacturing Index for July 2026 – Forecast 54.0, versus 53.3 previous. US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for July 2026 – Forecast 53.8, versus 53.8 previous.

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Titan FX is a technology driven online ECN forex and commodities broker that provides traders with next generation trading conditions, institutional grade spreads, fast trade execution, deep top tier liquidity and the security of financial registration and oversight.

USDJPY consolidates within a wide range on Friday after falling over 3% after intervention of Japan’s authorities, aiming to support weakening yen on Thursday.

Friday’s action moves within daily Ichimoku cloud (158.49/160.59) shaped so far in a long-legged Doji, signaling that traders look for fresh direction signal after yen registered the biggest daily gain since Nov 2022.

Although the impact from the intervention was strong, it was insufficient to spark stronger drop, as Thursday’s action surged through thick daily cloud but failed to register daily close below cloud base (158.49, reinforced by Fibo 61.8% of 155.02/163.98 upleg), with brief spike below the cloud base being contained by another strong support at 157.91, provided by 200DMA.

Daily studies have weakened (14-d momentum fell deep into negative territory and DMAs turned to almost full bearish setup, but sustained break below cloud base and 200DMA (also below nearby trendline support at 157.54) is needed to open way for deeper drop and reduce risk of bounce (the current move is still above major supports of larger uptrend).

The pair is on track for strong weekly loss and ends month of July in red that contributes to negative signals.

Markets wait for more information whether Japanese authorities plan to intervene again, to help yen to sustain the latest strong gains.

Res: 160.00; 160.59; 160.88; 161.28
Sup: 158.45; 157.96; 157.54; 157.14

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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

The Japanese yen strengthened significantly at the end of the week following reports of possible currency intervention by Japanese authorities, with speculation that the United States may also have supported the move. The Bank of Japan kept its interest rate at 1.00%, as expected, but said the economy is improving and inflation risks remain. This kept the possibility of another rate hike in September alive.

The Federal Reserve also left interest rates unchanged in a 9–3 vote, saying inflation is still too high and that future rate hikes remain possible if needed. The Bank of England also kept interest rates unchanged while continuing to monitor inflation and economic growth.

U.S. economic data was mostly weaker than expected. Durable Goods Orders, Consumer Confidence, and GDP growth all came in below forecasts, suggesting the economy is slowing. In Japan, the Tokyo Consumer Price Index rose 1.9% year-on-year in July, slightly above the expected 1.8%, showing that inflation remains steady.

Markets This Week U.S. Stocks The Dow Jones ended the week higher after a volatile week. Lower WTI crude oil prices early in the week helped lift the market, but stocks fell midweek as investors worried about high AI stock valuations. Buyers returned after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged. The 10-day moving average is now flat, showing the trend is losing momentum. With uncertainty still high, selling on rallies may remain the better strategy. Resistance levels are at 52,500, 53,000, 53,500 and 54,000. Support is seen at 51,500, 51,000, 50,000, 49,500 and 49,000.

Japanese Stocks The Nikkei 225 continued to fall, moving closer to the 60,000 level as investors remained concerned about high AI stock valuations. A recovery in SoftBank shares late in the week and the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged helped the index recover some losses. However, the overall trend remains lower. With a volatile week expected as markets assess the recent sharp rise in the Japanese yen, selling near the 10-day moving average remains the preferred strategy. Resistance is seen at 66,000, 67,000, 68,000, 69,000 and 70,000, while support is at 62,000, 61,000, 60,000 and 59,000.

USD/JPY The Japanese yen strengthened sharply at the end of last week after reports that the Bank of Japan, and possibly the U.S. Federal Reserve, intervened to support the currency. Earlier in the week, the Bank of Japan kept interest rates unchanged but signaled that another rate hike in September remains possible. Despite the sharp move, many analysts still expect the yen to remain weak over the longer term, as Japan’s plans to reduce taxes on food have raised concerns about the country’s fiscal position. For short-term traders, the recent volatility could create good buying opportunities. Medium-term traders may also find attractive buying opportunities if they are willing to be patient and accept higher market volatility. Resistance is at 160.00, 161.00, 162.00, 164.00 and 165.00, while support is seen at 157.00, 156.00, 155.00 and 154.00.

Gold Gold traded sideways last week as comments from major central banks about possible interest rate increases in the coming months limited buying. However, central banks continued to buy below the $4,000 level, helping to support prices. With strong support below and higher interest rates limiting upside, gold is likely to remain range-bound, making range trading the preferred strategy again this week. Resistance is at $4,150, $4,200, $4,300, $4,400 and $4,500, while support is at $4,000, $3,950, $3,900, and $3,800.

Crude Oil WTI crude oil started the week lower after the United States and Iran resumed negotiations, but a lack of meaningful progress pushed prices back up, with oil closing the week near its highs. The market continues to react to headlines, making price moves difficult to predict. Short-term traders may find opportunities by following momentum, while medium-term traders could look for selling opportunities if prices continue to rally. Resistance is at $90, $95, $100 and $105, while support is at $80.00, $75.00, $67.50, $65, and $60.

Bitcoin Bitcoin had a quiet week as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and concerns over high AI stock valuations kept buyers cautious. Resistance around $65,000 remained strong, and the 10-day moving average has turned lower after several failed attempts to break above that level. Selling ahead of the $65,000 resistance level may offer the best trading opportunities this week. Resistance is at $65,000, $75,000, $80,000, $85,000, and $90,000, while support is at $60,000, $55,000 and $50,000.

This Week’s Focus Monday: Australia S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, Japan S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending Tuesday: U.S. Trade Balance and Factory Orders Wednesday: Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes and S&P Global Services PMI, E.U. HCOB Eurozone Services PMI and PPI, U.K. S&P Global Services PMI, U.S. S&P Global Services PMI Thursday: Australia Trade Balance, E.U. ECB Economic Bulletin and Retail Sales, U.K. S&P Global Construction PMI Friday: Japan Household Spending, U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls An active week is expected as traders focus on the sharp fall in USD/JPY and continue to assess the reported intervention to support the Japanese yen. Stock markets will also be watching whether concerns over high AI-related stock valuations continue to weigh on sentiment. Key economic releases include global Manufacturing PMI data, the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, and the week’s most important event, the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, which could have a major impact on expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

Titan FXhttp://titanfx.com

Titan FX is a technology driven online ECN forex and commodities broker that provides traders with next generation trading conditions, institutional grade spreads, fast trade execution, deep top tier liquidity and the security of financial registration and oversight.

USDJPY: ⬇️ Sell

– USDJPY broke support zone

– Likely to fall to support level 157.00

USDJPY currency pair recently broke the support zone between the support level 160.50 (which reversed the price at the start of July) and the support trendline from February.

The breakout of the support level 160.50 coincided with the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse wave from the start of May.

Given the strong bearish sentiment seen across the FX markets today, USDJPY currency pair can be expected to fall further to the next support level 157.00.

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FxPro is an award-winning online broker offering Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on forex, futures, spot indices, shares, spot metals and spot energies. FxPro serves clients in over 150 countries worldwide and offers multilingual customer support 24/5. Trading CFDs involves significant risk of loss.

The Australian dollar enters the week on a four-week winning streak after broad US dollar weakness following the FOMC meeting and coordinated yen intervention lifted AUD/USD. But with the US dollar index testing a major support zone and ISM and nonfarm payrolls due this week, the Aussie may need a fresh catalyst to extend its gains.

View related analysis:

Japanese Yen Surges as MOF Steals the BOJ's Thunder After FOMC Gold Bounces Within Range After Post-FOMC Dollar Selloff US Dollar Rally Builds Momentum, Crude Oil Holds the Key Australian Dollar Broadly Lower as Soft CPI Reverses RBA Hike Bets AUD/USD Rally Meets DXY Support Ahead of ISM and NFP The Australian dollar largely escaped the extreme volatility seen in the Japanese yen late last week, when several yen crosses unwound moves that had accumulated over the previous three months. The BOJ's suspected intervention shook out what had arguably become crowded long-yen positions, before another bout of yen strength emerged after the US Treasury threw its support behind Japan's efforts.

Meanwhile, expectations for another RBA rate hike eased after Australia's softer-than-expected CPI report. Markets have effectively ruled out a September move, although the cash rate curve is still pricing a small chance of one final 25bp hike by December.

Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders

Nonfarm Payrolls and ISM Data Could Reshape Fed Expectations The nonfarm payrolls and ISM reports are the main calendar events this week, as they could help reshape Fed policy expectations following last week's slightly less-hawkish than expected decision to leave interest rates on hold. The Middle East flare-up also raises concerns about potential inflationary pressures, with Fed funds futures continuing to price a 74% probability of a September hike and a 41% chance of another in December.

But if recent trends in the ISM services and nonfarm payrolls reports are repeated, it could still leave some doubt over that second hike. Headline job growth has slowed for three consecutive months, from 214k to 57k, although unemployment has edged back to a healthy 4.2%. ISM PMIs also eased slightly while prices paid retreated from their multi-year highs. The risk, of course, is that nonfarm payrolls delivers another strong upside surprise and prices paid rebound on the back of higher crude oil prices in recent weeks. That could lift the probability of a December hike above 50%, support the US dollar, and weigh on AUD/USD.

Source: BLS, ISM, LSEG

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar AUD/USD Correlations Face a DXY Reality Check AUD/USD remains most inversely correlated with the US dollar, with the 10-day correlation strengthening to -0.86. Positive correlations with the New Zealand dollar (0.92), copper (0.98) and the yuan (0.83) also remain firm, highlighting the importance of China sentiment and industrial metals. The S&P 500 has swung back to a strong positive correlation (0.89), while WTI crude has flipped negative, suggesting higher oil prices are currently weighing on AUD/USD rather than supporting commodity currencies.

Source: LSEG

AUD/USD Futures Positioning | COT Report The Aussie has continued to defy the bears, rising for a fourth consecutive week and is out of the gates trying to notch up a fifth. Gross shorts continued to trend higher among large speculators and asset managers, dragging speculators' net-short exposure to a seven-month high of nearly 40k contracts.

Yet we should also note the gradual rise in gross longs among asset managers, who have added nearly 14k contracts over the past three weeks (26.4%) to take their gross-long exposure to 13.8k contracts.

Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG

AUD/USD Options and Volatility Analysis (Risk Reversals, HVN Levels) With the US dollar index falling sharply following the FOMC meeting and coordinated yen intervention, AUD/USD has gained another source of support. But with the US dollar now sitting near a key support cluster, a runaway rally is far from assured.

Note that the US dollar index (left) is testing its 200-day EMA, sitting just above the 2026 bullish trendline and the 99.384 swing low. Given the speed of last week's selloff, this support area could prove favourable for dollar bulls over the near term, potentially capping AUD/USD's upside.

US Dollar Support Could Limit AUD/USD Gains AUD/USD (right) is also approaching its prior swing high while the Australia-US 2-year yield spread continues to point lower. That divergence also suggests upside may be limited, particularly if the ISM or nonfarm payrolls reports surprise to the upside, as I suspect they might.

For now, AUD/USD risk reversals continue to edge higher, suggesting demand for calls is increasing relative to puts. Even so, bears may be looking for evidence of a swing high and a pullback towards 70c. A break below that level would bring Thursday's low near 0.6950 into focus.

The most bullish scenario for AUD/USD this week would likely require a combination of weaker-than-expected US economic data and further rounds of yen intervention. For now, the latter appears to be weighing on the US dollar while supporting the Japanese yen.

Source: ICE, TradingView

What if I were to tell you I know a place where gold is literally blowing out of the ground and raining from the sky?

There is such a place!

But before you start packing your bags, I should tell you that it’s in Antarctica.

The Ross Sea is more of a deep bay in Antarctica,  about 840 miles from the South Pole. In the Ross Sea, you’ll find Ross Island. And on Ross Island stands Mt. Erebus.

Mt. Erebus is an active volcano. It’s not so much erupting as bubbling. Inside the volcano sits a permanent lake of blazing, molten rock. This hot lava emits a lot of gases. Mixed with the steam bubbling out of Mt. Erebus are microscopic particles of crystalline gold.

Mt. Erebus has been belching gold for decades. In 1991, researchers estimated that the volcano spews around 80 grams (A little over 2.5 troy ounces) of microscopic gold dust into the sky every single day. That comes to about 900 ounces of gold every year. At today’s gold price, we’re talking about some $3.6 million worth of gold.

Good luck collecting it, though.

As I mentioned, the gold is microscopic. As it blows into the atmosphere, wind currents carry the particles as far as 1,000 kilometers from the volcano before it falls to the ground like a soft rain.

It’s not unusual to find gold in volcanic emissions. For instance, scientists have detected gold around a volcano in Hawaii. However, Mt. Erebus is the only volcano known to spew high levels of crystalline gold into the air at this volume.

As a Yahoo News article put it, it makes sense.

“A volcano is basically a hole in Earth's crust, through which molten material from deep below the ground seethes upward.”

There are thousands of miles of nearly impenetrable rock between the core and the Earth’s surface, known as the mantle. It extends from about 22 miles below the Earth’s surface and crust to the core. The boundary between Earth’s center and the mantle lies about 1,800 miles deep.

The Earth’s molten outer core holds about 99.9 percent of the planet’s gold and other precious metals. Scientists estimate there is as much as 1.6 quadrillion tonnes of gold locked up in the Earth’s center. That’s enough gold to coat the entire surface of the Earth with a 20-inch-thick layer of the yellow metal.

Unfortunately, it is impossible to mine the core; however, Mother Nature sometimes pushes some of that gold to the surface.

As hot as lava is, it can’t vaporize the yellow metal. The boiling point of pure gold is far hotter than volcanic temperatures. That means gold coming out of the Earth is generally in a liquid state. Scientists think gold hitches a ride to the surface in volatile chlorine- or sulfur-bearing compounds that exist in hot volcanic gases.

The crystalline structure of the gold blowing out of Mt. Erebus is unique. According to Yahoo News, “Under an electron microscope, the particles appeared as intricate, faceted, almost perfectly geometric crystals rather than irregular specks, some measuring up to about 60 micrometers across.”

One theory is that under the environmental conditions around Mt. Erebus, gold crystallizes out of these chlorine and sulfur compounds as the gases cool. However, these compounds typically only contain small amounts of gold, and it is unclear how the large crystals can form.

Another theory is that the gold gradually deposits in a crust on the surface of the lava lake before being blown aloft by rising gases.

As Yahoo News put it, “Something about Mount Erebus – whether it's the chemistry, the ambient temperature, the geology, or something else – appears to give it a unique ability to sprinkle the snow with gold dust like a mischievous pixie.”

I’d be OK with sending that mischievous pixie my way!

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Weekly US Government Bonds 30-Year Yield The 30-year above 5.20% killed the rally before it had a second day. Gold pushed above $4,100 on Thursday’s dollar break and the long end did not flinch. By Friday the dollar had recovered and the $4,100 bid was gone. One session. That is what gold got out of the biggest Fed repricing in two months.

Payrolls Friday Settles What the Fed Left Open The July employment report at 13:30 GMT Friday is the number gold has been waiting for since Warsh refused to give the market guidance. He set this up so the data decides. Gold buyers need the number to come in soft enough to pull September odds lower and restart the dollar selling that lifted the metal above $4,100 last week. The dissenters already have the inflation argument. A firm jobs report with strong wages gives them the labor market too, and gold does not have a defense against both.

Tuesday’s JOLTS report is the early read before Friday’s main event. The week is about one question and the answer arrives in stages.

What to Watch Friday’s payrolls report decides whether the September rate trade tightens or loosens, and gold is going to follow the dollar’s reaction to the number. The Fed hold pulled hike odds down from 80% to 65% and the dollar broke lower on the repricing, but the long end did not cooperate and gold could not hold above $4,100. Tuesday’s JOLTS is the early signal. If it comes in soft, gold buyers get a head start pressing the dollar before Friday. If it comes in strong, the rate rebuild starts early and gold has to defend the week’s lows.

Gold has been straddling the 50% retracement level for weeks and the consolidation is building a base that either launches toward the 52-week moving average or breaks down toward the support below. Payrolls is the catalyst that picks the direction.

Gold prices are projected to remain broadly anchored around $4,000 in 2026 as the Federal Reserve’s rate hold offsets pressure from still-elevated US yields. The Gold price in US Dollars entered the weekend close at around $4,040 an ounce after a volatile few sessions around the Federal Reserve decision.

XAU/USD gained 1.5% on Wednesday and another 0.5% on Thursday, before falling 1.6% on Friday. The metal still recorded a modest 0.85% gain during July, although it remains around 6.4% lower since the beginning of 2026.

MUFG said gold had held near $4,060 after the Fed left interest rates unchanged, with the decision easing some of the immediate pressure on non-yielding assets.

“Gold traded near USD4,060/oz after gaining nearly 1% as the US Fed left interest rates unchanged,” the bank said.

The Fed voted 9-3 to maintain rates, although policymakers kept the door open to further tightening if inflation remains too high.

According to MUFG, “lower short-term Treasury yields following the decision supported bullion by reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.”

Image: Gold price in USD 1-month chart The price of Gold traded in a broad $3,963–$4,202 range during July before ending the month close to $4,040.

Geopolitical risk also continues to provide support. MUFG pointed to renewed US strikes on Iran, which have kept Middle East tensions elevated even as energy markets avoided a more serious disruption.

The bank said the Fed decision had offered “near-term support for gold”, but stopped short of calling for a sustained breakout.

Gold Price Outlook: $4,000 Remains the Centre of the Range MUFG expects competing forces to keep bullion broadly range-bound.

“Expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, and persistent Middle East tensions are likely to keep the metal trading within a broad range around the USD4,000/oz level,” it said.

That leaves the near-term outlook finely balanced.

Softer Treasury yields and geopolitical demand should help defend the $4,000 area, while renewed Fed tightening expectations would make it harder for gold to build a lasting move higher.

Image: XAU/USD year-to-date chart MUFG’s view is less about a directional surge and more about consolidation: support from the Fed pause and geopolitical risk on one side, offset by the prospect that US rates remain restrictive for longer.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Key Points:The BOJ may consider raising its policy rate to 1.25% in September or October.Yen intervention and expectations of higher Japanese rates are pressuring USDJPY.USDJPY could extend its correction if it remains below key technical support.

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The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate at 1% in July. It came after a 25 basis point hike in June. But the last meeting did not indicate that the tightening cycle was over. The BOJ placed more weight on the risk of the underlying inflation exceeding its 2% target.

The depreciating yen has increased the pressure for higher interest rates. It increases the costs of imported fuel, food and industrial materials. While currency intervention can slow the rate of decline, it may not eliminate the big interest rate spread between Japan and the United States. That could mean that the BOJ needs to tighten policy to counter the primary driver of yen weakness.

In my view, the BOJ may consider a policy rate increase to 1.25% in September/October. September is now the first realistic window while October remains possible if policymakers want more inflation and wage data.

BOJ Interest Rate Decision Keeps September Hike in Focus The BOJ maintained the interest rates steady with 8-1 vote. But the board member Hajime Takata supported an immediate increase to 1.25%. This means that the tightening camp is beginning to grow within the bank as evidenced by his dissent. The bond yield of the 2-year Japanese bond also rose to 1.51% following the meeting. This suggests the bond market expects the interest rates to remain higher.

Governor Kazuo Ueda gave clear warning about the cost of waiting too long. He said that the lack of action could increase the risk of inflation. The bank would also begin to discuss these risks starting with its September meeting. This guidance opens the door for a potential rate hike in September.

This message was supported by the BOJ’s July forecast. The bank added that it would consider raising the policy rate if the economy and prices evolve in line with the bank’s expectations. The bank said that the financial environment is accommodative, as real interest rates remain negative. So, a 1% policy rate might still be too low if the inflation 2%.

The next move will depend on the upcoming data about inflation, wages and currency. The strong wage data and another increase in inflation expectations could warrant a September rate increase. The yen’s depreciation again may push the BOJ into a more urgent decision. The bank could hold off until October or December if these pressures ease.

Japan Inflation and Wage Growth Support Further BOJ Rate Hikes The annual inflation rate in Japan climbed to 1.7% in June and the core inflation rate to 1.6%. Both readings are below BOJ’s target. But they are not based on current prices and take into account government energy subsidies. The BOJ is expecting the core inflation to surge to above 2% in the second half of fiscal 2026.

The producer prices suggest the future inflation. These grew 7.1% year on year in June, following 6.6% growth in May. The chart below shows a strong rise in producer prices since March 2026. Most of this increase was due to increased energy, chemical and petroleum prices. The companies could shift some of these costs back to consumers, making it more difficult for the BOJ to maintain the rates.

The wage data also indicates additional tightening. The average cash earnings grew 3.2% year on year in May.

On the other hand, the real earnings grew 1.4% year on year and continue to grow in 2026 as seen in the chart below.

At the same time, business inflation expectations increased from 2.4% to 2.7%. When wages are growing, consumers can more easily afford higher prices and when expectations are increasing, inflation is more likely to continue.

Strong demand for semiconductors, high energy prices and the weak yen may continue to weigh on inflation. These forces are in favor of transitioning to 1.25% by the end of 2026.

If these factors remain positive and continue to grow, the BOJ could hike rates further to 1.5% in early 2027. But if the oil price drops and the yen continues to strengthen, the bank may be able to take a break after its next rate increase.

USDJPY Forecast as BOJ Rate Hike Supports the Yen The hawkish BOJ and suspected currency intervention pushed the USDJPY lower. The strength in yen at the end of July has pushed USDJPY to close the month around 157.40. This is around 3% down for July and opens the door for further correction in August.

If the BOJ raises rates, then the US dollar will become less attractive relative to the yen. This may put more pressure on USDJPY on the downside.

But the difference in rates between the U.S. and Japan is still quite large. The 2-year yield in the United States was nearly 4.31%, while in Japan it was around 1.51%.

If the BOJ hikes rates and US yields drop, USDJPY may retreat to the 152-155 area. But a BOJ rate hike and another US rate increase would drag the pair back towards 160.

USDJPY Technical Analysis as Pullback Reaches Key Support USDJPY dropped after marking a high at the 164 level and closed the month below the 157 level. This means that the breakout above the 160 level, which was triggered in June 2026, failed. USDJPY still needs to consolidate below the 160-162 area.

The weekly chart below shows that USDJPY has been trending within an ascending channel pattern since the January 2023 lows. If USDJPY continues to drop below 157 next week, it will likely continue its momentum toward the 149-150 area as seen by lower support of the ascending channel pattern.

The importance of the current support zone is highlighted on the daily chart, which shows that USDJPY closed slightly below the rising trend line and the 200-day SMA.

But this was the last day of the month, which triggered strong volatility in the financial markets. This means that a recovery above 158 next week and continued upside momentum may allow the pair to rally toward the 160 area.

However, if the pair continues to drop below the 157 level, it will open the door for a continued decline toward the 152 area. This level is marked by the red dotted support line.

But the RSI indicator shows an extremely oversold condition in the short term and indicates a rebound before the next drop. A recovery above 161.50 will suggest that the bottom has formed. This bottom may allow the pair to continue upside.

In Closing The BOJ has opened the door to another interest rate hike. Rising producer prices, strong wage growth and higher inflation expectations support the tighter policy. The weak yen also increases imported inflation. In my view, the BOJ may raise the policy rate to 1.25% in September or October. It could delay the move if inflation eases or the yen continues to recover.

The higher Japanese interest rates could place further pressure on USDJPY. A continued decline below 157 may push the pair toward the 150-152 area. But the oversold conditions could trigger the short term rebound first. A recovery above 161.50 would indicate that the bottom is confirmed and the pair is ready to move higher again.

Read more: BOJ Rate Hike to 1.25% Puts Japanese Yen in Focus

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Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.

Editors’ Picks

UBS expects the Australian Dollar to strengthen steadily over the coming year, with AUD/USD forecast at 0.73 by September and 0.76 by June 2027. The Australian Dollar to US Dollar exchange rate (AUD/USD) ended July at 0.7026, having gained 1.65% over the month and more than 5% since the start of the year.

That leaves the pair back above 0.70 after a difficult June, when AUD/USD fell 3.73% and briefly traded below 0.69. See our full history here.

UBS sees the recovery extending well beyond current exchange rate levels.

Its latest global forecasts put AUD/USD at 0.73 in September 2026, 0.74 in December, 0.75 in March 2027 and 0.76 by June.

The final target implies upside of just over 8% from the latest close.

The shape of the forecast matters.

UBS is not looking for one sudden surge.

It expects the pair to rise by roughly one cent in each quarter, pointing to a broader improvement in the Australian Dollar backdrop alongside a gradual weakening of the US currency.

We think that makes the 0.73 September target the key first test.

If AUD/USD can reach and hold that level, the later forecasts at 0.74, 0.75 and 0.76 become much easier to justify. If it fails well before then, the whole path starts to look more vulnerable.

The bank’s wider currency table also supports the view that this is partly a Dollar story.

UBS expects both EUR/USD and GBP/USD to rise over the same period, suggesting it sees a broad retreat in the US Dollar rather than an Australian Dollar move driven by domestic factors alone.

That distinction is important after softer Australian inflation reduced expectations for another near-term Reserve Bank of Australia rate rise.

The absence of an immediate hike removes one potential source of support for the Aussie, but it does not rule out further gains if US yields fall and the Federal Reserve becomes less restrictive.

A favourable global backdrop would help as well.

The Australian Dollar tends to perform better when equity markets are firm, commodity demand is improving and investors are prepared to hold more risk-sensitive currencies.

In our view, UBS’s forecast assumes those external forces will prove strong enough to outweigh any fading support from Australian interest rates.

Image: AUD/USD institutional forecasts - August 2026 survey poll results Share article

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The pair still has technical work to do before the first target comes into view.

AUD/USD closed July near 0.7026, above the rising 20-day moving average and around the declining 50-day average.

That is a clear improvement from late June, when the exchange rate fell towards 0.6880, but it is not yet a decisive medium-term breakout.

The immediate obstacle is the July high around 0.7044.

A move through 0.7050 would strengthen the recovery and bring 0.7100 back into focus.

Beyond there, resistance is likely around 0.7180-0.7200, followed by the May peak at 0.7277.

We would treat a break above 0.7277 as the point at which the UBS forecast starts to look technically credible.

That would complete the recovery from June’s decline and leave the market within reach of 0.73.

Image: AUD/USD three-month chart showing support near 0.7000, resistance around 0.7045 and the May high at 0.7277 The broader 2026 trend remains constructive, but the May high still guards the path to UBS’s first target The year-to-date chart is more positive than the shorter three-month view.

AUD/USD began 2026 near 0.6670 and has since gained 5.34%.

The pair rallied strongly through January, traded above 0.72 during the spring and reached a year-to-date high at 0.7277 in May.

The subsequent decline was sharp, but the exchange rate held well above its January low before recovering through July.

That leaves the broader upward structure intact.

The 20-day moving average has turned higher, while the 50-day average has begun to flatten.

A sustained hold above 0.70 would keep the recovery on course and increase the likelihood of another test of the spring highs.

Initial support is located around 0.7000, followed by the 20-day average near 0.6970.

A break beneath 0.6970 would weaken the near-term picture and expose the July support zone around 0.6940, with the late-June low near 0.6880 providing the more important downside level.

We would view a move back below 0.6970 as a warning that the July recovery is losing momentum.

Image: AUD/USD year-to-date chart showing the rise from 0.6670, May peak near 0.7277 and July recovery above 0.70 Share article

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UBS’s 0.76 forecast ultimately rests on more than the Australian Dollar story.

A move that far would require a sustained improvement in global risk appetite, supportive commodity conditions and a weaker US Dollar.

The first two targets look achievable if AUD/USD can maintain its position above 0.70 and clear the May high.

The longer-term move towards 0.76 would require a more convincing Dollar decline and a clear break from the broad range that has contained the pair since February.

For now, the technical tone has improved, but the exchange rate remains in recovery rather than full breakout mode.

A close above 0.7277 would materially strengthen the bullish case and place UBS’s 0.73 September forecast within reach.

Euro Talking Points: EUR/USD finished the prior week with an open door for bears, but they were disinterested in holding the trend as stalling in early trade last week led to a pullback and a push back above the 1.1500 handle after the FOMC rate decision. While there was a technical backdrop to explain the move, the fundamental argument was lacking, giving credence to the idea that it was the larger unwind of USD/JPY carry trades that drove USD selling across-the-board.

It was a big week for the FX market, but most of that drive came from the USD/JPY pair. While the prior week ECB meeting saw Christine Lagarde take a dovish tilt, EUR/USD stuttered after a downside break of a bear flag formation. To be sure, last week started with an open door for sellers but they were seemingly disinterested in continuation as short-term price action built a falling wedge ahead of the FOMC meeting, and that led to a bullish breakout as Kevin Warsh steered away from any rate hike announcements.

I looked at that in the webinar the day before FOMC and as I said then, a topside break above the 1.1500 handle could prove meaningful, as that’s a big level of importance on a longer-term basis.

Unfortunately, with how it happened, it’s perhaps more difficult to be convinced of that as the USD-selling in the latter-half of the week really seemed to root from the widely-suspected intervention in USD/JPY. And given how crowded that trade has become after five years of trend saw almost 60% added on to the spot rate, it makes sense how USD/JPY reversing could bring Dollar-selling across-the-board.

EUR/USD, however, remains clean from a technical perspective and buyers now have an open door to make a push following the print of a fresh monthly high, and a trip back above that significant spot of 1.1500.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Daily Chart From the daily chart, buyers don’t yet look finished as the long underside wick on the Friday candle illustrates a strong response to a pullback. This points to the possibility of re-test of the next zone up, spanning from the 1.1576-1.1613 zone of prior resistance-turned-support.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/JPY As proof of the bigger item behind FX flows for last week, while EUR/USD was setting that fresh monthly high, EUR/JPY was setting a fresh monthly low. But importantly – that low printed at a very familiar spot, as it’s the same chasm from 182.65-183.16 that was in-play to hold the lows back in May.

I had talked about this one a couple of different times over the past two weeks, highlighting the range that’s been in place for the pair. Well, it’s now at range support and this could present a compelling argument for traders that are looking to fade the recent run of Yen-strength.

With that said, that matter around the Japanese Yen remains highly fluid, and thus, volatile, and if we do see another swing of Yen-strength then EUR/JPY could possibly sink along with USD/JPY such as we saw last week.

EUR/JPY Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Analysts at Scotiabank expect renewed pressure on USD/CAD after its July decline, with a break below 1.4000 opening the way towards 1.3981 and the upper 1.39s. The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate ended July near 1.4015 after falling 1.36% over the month.

USD/CAD opened July around 1.4208 and reached a monthly high close to 1.4239 before retreating to a low near 1.3992. The pair remains 2.1% higher for 2026, having traded between approximately 1.3482 and 1.4248 since the start of the year.

Scotiabank says the Canadian Dollar has benefited from the broader deterioration in US Dollar sentiment following the Federal Reserve meeting, although progress through the 1.4000 area has so far proved difficult.

Short-term US-Canada interest-rate spreads narrowed modestly after the FOMC decision, providing some support for the Loonie. The bank cautions, however, that the remaining yield gap is still wide enough to restrain a more substantial Canadian Dollar advance.

The latest weekly close may be more significant. Scotiabank believes the move suggests that the rebound in USD/CAD from its mid-July low is beginning to reverse.

The pair has moved decisively below its 40-day moving average, which Scotiabank places at 1.4104. The bank now expects minor recoveries towards 1.4100 to encounter firm resistance.

USD/CAD tested the 1.4000 region during the final sessions of July but failed to reach the 38.2% retracement of the May-June rally at 1.3981.

According to Scotiabank, “a low close on the week suggests the USD rebound from mid-July is reversing and more pressure is likely on the upper 1.39s in the days ahead.”

The one-month chart supports the softer technical picture. USD/CAD has fallen below its declining 20-day moving average and closed close to the bottom of July’s range.

The broader year-to-date chart is less conclusive. The pair remains above its rising 50-day average and is still well above the January low, reflecting the scale of the Dollar rally during May and June.

Canada’s domestic data provide the next potential catalyst. May industry-level GDP is expected to rise 0.2% on the month and 1.4% from a year earlier. A stronger reading could help the Canadian Dollar force a clearer break below 1.4000.

Scotiabank’s short-term assessment is bearish, with 1.3981 marking the immediate downside target and the upper 1.39s likely to come under further pressure. Resistance around 1.4100 should now limit any near-term USD recovery.

Canadian Dollar Prices: This Week  USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD -1.37%-1.17%-3.91%-0.57%-0.61%-1.66%-1.35%EUR+1.39% +0.21%-2.57%+0.82%+0.78%-0.29%+0.03%GBP+1.18%-0.21% -2.77%+0.61%+0.57%-0.50%-0.18%JPY+4.07%+2.64%+2.85% +3.47%+3.43%+2.34%+2.66%CAD+0.57%-0.81%-0.60%-3.36% -0.04%-1.10%-0.78%AUD+0.61%-0.77%-0.56%-3.32%+0.04% -1.06%-0.74%NZD+1.69%+0.29%+0.50%-2.28%+1.11%+1.07% +0.32%CHF+1.37%-0.03%+0.18%-2.59%+0.79%+0.75%-0.32%  The FX heat map compares how Canadian Dollar (CAD) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Japanese Yen, where Canadian Dollar recorded its sharpest decline. Data comparing prices today (01/08/2026 12:20 UTC) and daily close on 25/07/2026.

To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

MUFG says the Bank of England’s hawkish hold should keep Sterling supported, but Governor Bailey’s pushback against imminent rate increases limits the scope for a sustained GBP/USD rally. The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) ended July around 1.3482 after gaining 1.75% over the month and rebounding strongly from lows below 1.33.

GBP/USD rose around 0.85% over the final 48 hours of July, reaching a high near 1.3495 and finishing close to the top of that range.

Image: Pound to Dollar (GBP?USD) exchange rate chart - final 48hr pre-close Over the past three months, the pair has traded between approximately 1.3142 and 1.3658, leaving the latest rate near the middle of its broader spring and summer range.

MUFG believes the Bank of England’s latest communication remains supportive for Sterling, although policymakers stopped short of signalling an imminent rate increase.

The Monetary Policy Committee left rates unchanged, with MUFG’s textual analysis describing the written contributions as consistent with a hawkish hold. Policymakers continued to emphasise inflation persistence, second-round effects and the risks posed by energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty.

The committee remains divided. MUFG’s framework placed Catherine Mann firmly in hawkish territory, followed by Huw Pill and Megan Greene, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor remained on the dovish wing.

Mann’s shift was particularly notable, with her comments placing greater weight on inflation risks arising from Middle East tensions and volatile energy prices.

The press conference delivered a more balanced signal than the written statement, however.

MUFG scored the MPC contributions at 23.3 on its hawk-dove scale, compared with a softer 17.0 for Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference.

Bailey explicitly warned markets not to leave the meeting believing that the MPC was “edging towards a hike”.

That distinction is important for Pound Sterling.

The BoE remains concerned enough about inflation to resist a dovish shift, supporting UK yields and the Pound, but it is not yet preparing investors for another tightening move.

According to MUFG, “the communication remains supportive, but the deliberate pushback against rate hike expectations limits the scope for upside.”

Image: GBP/USD 3-month history The Pound-Dollar exchange rate charts reinforce that mixed picture.

GBP/USD has recovered above both its short-term moving averages, but remains below the May high near 1.3658.

A clean move through 1.3500 would improve the immediate technical tone, while the 1.3550-1.3660 area is likely to offer stronger resistance.

Pound Sterling’s rebound can therefore extend while the Dollar remains under pressure, but MUFG’s assessment suggests the BoE alone is unlikely to drive GBP/USD decisively beyond its recent highs.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

BOJ caution leads to renewed market intervention Three-day intervention window makes Monday live for action JGB auctions face post-intervention pressure test Payrolls hold the key to dollar direction USD/JPY posts first daily close below 200DMA since October USD/JPY Outlook Summary Months of volatility suppression as market forces continued to provoke Japanese authorities were finally released with a vengeance late last week, culminating in what appears to have been a coordinated intervention episode involving Japan's Ministry of Finance, the US Treasury and potentially South Korean authorities.

Intervention risk is likely to dominate USD/JPY in the early part of the week, reducing the importance of both fundamentals and technicals. Beyond that, Friday's US non-farm payrolls report will likely determine whether the sharp reversal develops into something more sustainable or proves little more than another opportunity to buy the dip at better levels.

Stars align for intervention After months of threatening to pull the trigger, a non-committal Federal Reserve, softer-than-expected US economic data and extreme speculative short yen positioning created the ideal conditions for Japanese authorities to intervene last week. With the US dollar already under pressure, authorities took the opportunity to strike when market forces were moving in their favour.

Source: LSEG Workstation, FOREX.com

What followed next was unlike anything seen in decades. Rather than leaving markets to work out whether intervention had occurred, it almost felt as though authorities wanted everyone to know exactly what was unfolding, especially in the United States. 

Initially, reports emerged on Friday that the US Treasury had alerted several Wall Street banks it was considering intervention, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly argued the yen had overshot fair value. A Reuters photograph taken during President Donald Trump's Cabinet meeting at Camp David then appeared to capture Bessent's notepad bearing the handwritten instruction "Buy Japanese Yen" directly beneath his name card. With nothing else written on the page, it almost looked staged, reinforcing the impression he wanted markets to know coordinated intervention was imminent.

The willingness of the United States to help defend the yen is remarkable given there is no financial crisis or severe market dysfunction. The weakness reflects relative monetary policy, yet rather than reinforce intervention with a pre-emptive rate increase, the BOJ again chose to leave rates unchanged last week.

Source: LSEG Workstation, FOREX.com

Markets have been telling the BOJ the same thing for years: get on with policy normalisation. Citi's Economic Surprise Index for Japan has climbed to its highest level since the middle of 2021, and outside of the distortions created during the COVID pandemic, the run of positive data surprises is without precedent in recent years. Yet despite inflation, stronger-than-expected economic data and a full 25 basis point rate increase already priced by year-end, the BOJ continues to lag its global peers, forcing fiscal authorities to intervene rather than use monetary policy to support the yen.

Watching for another wave Having reportedly intervened on Thursday and Friday, the question now is whether Japanese and US authorities are finished. If the playbook from earlier this year is anything to go by, probably not. Intervention arrived in waves rather than in one hit. With a three-business-day window to work with under IMF guidelines to retain free-floating status, that leaves an elevated risk of further intervention on Monday, especially if USD/JPY stages another sizeable bounce like the one seen on Friday. However, once the intervention episode has run its course, the risk shifts to a partial retracement in USD/JPY higher ahead of key US economic data. 

Intervention gives way to fundamentals

Source: Tradingview, FOREX.com

Entering an extremely important week for the Fed rate outlook, markets continue to price more than two full rate increases through to the June 2027. Despite that, the US Treasury curve has continued to steepen last week, with longer-dated yields hitting multi-decade highs. That suggests markets are concerned the Fed, too, risks falling behind the curve on fighting inflation following last week's decision to leave rates unchanged.

As such, Wednesday's quarterly refunding announcement from the US Treasury also takes on added importance. With longer-dated yields continuing to push higher, it's unlikely to increase issuance further out along the curve for the upcoming quarter, pointing instead to further front-loading through shorter-dated bills.

Payrolls headline a packed week

Source: Tradingview

When it comes to fundamental drivers, the US economic calendar is stacked with second-tier labour market indicators, including the JOLTS survey, ADP employment, Challenger layoffs and weekly jobless claims, serving as the entrée before Friday's main event: the July non-farm payrolls report.

Ultimately, it comes down to the headline payrolls and unemployment figures, given their ability to influence the Fed interest rate outlook. Traders should also remain alert to the seasonal pattern seen in recent years where labour market data has softened through the northern hemisphere summer months. There's no guarantee that will be repeated this year, but it's something to be aware of given July payrolls reports in both 2024 and 2025 sparked significant dovish shifts in Fed expectations.

Beyond that, the remainder of the economic calendar looks more noise than signal. While an extreme outlier could move markets, intervention risk early in the week and Friday's payrolls report are likely to overshadow everything else.

Geopolitical developments in the Middle East remain a wildcard. At times, progress towards a durable ceasefire has provided modest support for the yen, although the market impact of headlines has diminished noticeably in recent weeks. Unless we see a material escalation or genuine breakthrough, they are likely to remain secondary to intervention and the US data calendar.

Japan's debt test

Source: TradingView

In Japan, wages data out Wednesday will be the key release, given the BOJ continues to rely on it to reinforce the virtuous cycle between wages, demand and inflation.

Auctions of 10 and 30-year JGBs should also be on the radar. Until now, much of the adjustment to the BOJ's deeply negative real interest rates has come through a weaker yen rather than higher bond yields. With authorities capping further FX weakness through intervention, that pressure may shift to the back end of the JGB curve, raising the risk of higher yields and softer demand for the upcoming issuance.

Trading the aftermath

Source: Tradingview

With intervention risks elevated, technicals have taken a back seat in the near term. The moves seen late last week were not driven by normal market forces, reducing the value of oscillators and many traditional technical signals.

Even so, Friday's close was significant. USD/JPY finished beneath both the post-Liberation Day uptrend and the 200-day simple moving average, marking the first daily close below the latter since October last year. Under normal circumstances, that would warn a more meaningful trend change may be underway.

Whether that forced trend break evolves into something more fundamentally driven will likely be determined by Friday's payrolls report. In the meantime, the proximity of price to the 200-day moving average makes it an important level when building trade ideas early in the week.

On the topside, Friday's rebound stalled almost to the pip at 160.73, the former multi-decade high from earlier this year that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance. Above that, the 50-day simple moving average, 162.84 and 164 are the levels to watch.

Should intervention persist, 155.65 is the first downside level to watch. It repeatedly attracted buying interest during the intervention episode in late April and early May, suggesting it may again prove important if authorities continue supporting the yen. Below that, 154.45 and the 2026 low at 152.10 become the next levels of interest.

Gold price tumbles nearly 1.50% on Friday as the US Dollar recovers some ground after Japanese authorities intervened in the foreign exchange markets a day ago, driving the Greenback to a 30-day low before recovering, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The XAU/USD trades at $4,045.

XAU/USD drops as Treasury yields, Fed dissents and inflation risks pressure BullionThe yellow metal is poised to finish the week with losses of over 0.11%, unable to decisively crack the $4,100 milestone.  At the same time, the DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against six currencies, is down 0.05%, at 99.91, but failed to provide a tailwind for Gold prices as US Treasury yields are soaring.

The US 10-year Treasury note is yielding 4.745%, up almost seven and a half basis points, as investors assess whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates to tame inflation.

On Thursday, US economic data showed that economic growth was softer than projected in Q2 2025, down from 2.1% in Q1 to 1.5% QoQ. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, came in at 3.3% YoY, down from 3.4%, a relief for the US central bank, which decided to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday.

During the day, three FOMC members who voted for rate hikes revealed the reasons for their vote. 

Dallas Fed's Lorie Logan suggested that inflation risks are tilting upward and favored raising interest rates to improve the balance of the outlook. Beth Hammack from the Cleveland Fed mentioned that the policy rate is still not restrictive enough as inflation has been “too high for too long. The Minneapolis Fed's Neel Kashkari said he preferred to raise rates by 25 basis points as he favors a gradual approach to monetary policy rather than “bolder actions.”

Money markets trimmed hawkish bets after the July meeting. Before, the odds for a rate hike in September were nearly 60%. As of writing, the chances were trimmed to 31%, with the odds for a hold increasing near 70%, according to Prime Terminal data.

Source: Prime TerminalUS economic data showed that consumers are becoming optimistic about the economic outlook. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for July improved from its preliminary reading of 54.4 to 55.2. At the same time, inflation expectations remained unchanged at 4.2% for one year and 3.3% for five years.

Joanne Hsu, the Director of the Survey of Consumers, wrote, “Broad-based improvements were seen across all groups by income, education, wealth, age, and political party.”

Aside from this, geopolitics continued to play a role in the financial markets. Rising Oil prices are a headwind for Bullion. The escalation of the Gulf War keeps the US crude benchmark, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), above $84.00 per barrel

XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold retraces below $4,050, eyes on $4,000Gold’s price shifted downwards steadily after two days of strong gains, and sits below the $4,100 level. The momentum shifted back bearishly as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed under 50, signaling decreasing buying interest. 

On the downside, initial support is at the July 24 low of $4,022. A breach of the latter exposes the psychologically important $4,000 level and the June 17 daily low of $3,959.

For a bullish continuation, buyers need to reclaim $4,100, ahead of the July 22 daily high of $4,165, potentially testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average at $4,185. The July 6 peak at $4,202 is the next resistance level. 

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

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August Forex Seasonality Key Points GBP/USD has, on average, seen its worst monthly performance in August, with average returns of around -0.5% since 1971. For USD/JPY, the key question will be how serious Japan and the US are about providing ongoing support to the yen, rather than long-term seasonal tendencies. A bearish move in AUD/USD, in line with the seasonal track record, could create an 8-month head-and-shoulders topping pattern on the pair with a neckline in the 0.6850 zone The beginning of a new month marks a good opportunity to review the seasonal patterns that have influenced the forex market over the 50+ years since the Bretton Woods system was dismantled in 1971, ushering in the modern foreign exchange market.

As always, these seasonal tendencies are just historical averages, and any individual month or year may vary from the historic average, so it’s important to complement these seasonal leans with alternative forms of analysis to create a long-term successful trading strategy. In other words, past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Euro Forex Seasonality – EUR/USD Chart Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Historically, August has been a mixed month for EUR/USD, with the world’s most widely-traded currency pair sporting an average return of -0.1% over the last 50+ years. In July, EUR/USD spent most of the month consolidating above 1.1360 support before rallying into the close of the month following a less-hawkish-than-hoped FOMC meeting. With the conflict in the Middle East back in play, headlines from that region and relative economic divergences should set the tone this month.

British Pound Forex Seasonality – GBP/USD Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Looking at the above chart, GBP/USD has, on average, seen its worst monthly performance in August, with average returns of around -0.5% since 1971. Like the euro, the British pound bounced against the Greenback last month, navigating the new Prime Minister relatively smoothly. For this month, the key level to watch will be the confluence of the July high and 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June drop; as long as that level holds, the seasonal tendency hints at the potential for weakness.

Japanese Yen Forex Seasonality – USD/JPY Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

August has historically been a bearish month for USD/JPY, with the pair falling -0.3% on average since the Bretton Woods agreement. USD/JPY spent most of last month grinding higher before suspected intervention, supported by the US, led to a sharp drop over the final two days. For August, the key question will be how serious Japan and the US are about providing ongoing support to the yen. Continued rate checks and verbal intervention would likely be enough to support the bearish seasonal tendency in USD/JPY.

Australian Dollar Forex Seasonality – AUD/USD Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Turning our attention Down Under, AUD/USD has historically traded lower in August, with an average return of -0.6% going back to 1971. Last month, the Aussie edged higher against the world’s reserve currency, taking it back above the psychologically significant 0.7000 level after the aforementioned FOMC meeting. A bearish move in line with the seasonal track record could create an 8-month head-and-shoulders topping pattern on the pair with a neckline in the 0.6850 zone.

Canadian Dollar Forex Seasonality – USD/CAD Chart

Source: TradingView, StoneX. Please note that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Last but not least, August has been a modestly positive month on average for USD/CAD, with an average historical return of +0.2%. The North American pair ultimately finished last month lower, defying the long-term seasonal tendency. As we head through August, the 6-year “joint review” of the USMCA will be a key event risk for the pair, with President Trump expressing skepticism toward the trade deal from his first term. Additional uncertainty around the trade relationship between the US and Canada could weigh on both currencies, but the impact on the Canadian Dollar would likely be larger, potentially supporting the pair in line with the longer-term seasonal tendency.

As always, we want to close this article by reminding readers that seasonal tendencies are not gospel – even if they’ve tracked relatively closely so far this year – so it’s important to complement this analysis with an examination of the current fundamental and technical backdrops for the major currency pairs.

-- Written by Matt Weller, Global Head of Research

Check out Matt’s Daily Market Update videos on YouTube and be sure to follow Matt on Twitter: @MWellerFX

The Pound Sterling retreats some 0.02% on Friday as the Greenback stages a recovery following Thursday’s intervention day, which weakened the US Dollar Index (DXY) to a 30-day low. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD trades at 1.3458, virtually unchanged. Read More...

British Pound underperforms as traders reconsider BoE interest rate hike betsThe British Pound (GBP) is down against its major currency peers, trading marginally lower at around 1.3444 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The British currency faces selling pressure as financial markets reconsider Bank of England (BoE) interest rate expectations for the September policy meeting after the monetary policy announcement on Thursday. Read More...

British Pound falls as US Dollar receives from internal FOMC policy splitGBP/USD loses ground after three days of gains, trading around 1.3450 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) gains support from a hawkish pause by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and an internal FOMC policy split. Read More...

Ask most people why gold is expensive right now, and inflation is the first word out of their mouth. It's not wrong exactly, but it's an incomplete answer. Even the inflation-hedge framing, while true, tends to flatten a much more layered story into a single headline. Some of the more interesting forces behind gold's 2026 run have had very little to do with the Consumer Price Index.

Central banks are buying for reasons beyond inflationCentral banks have spent the past few years adding gold to their reserves at a pace not seen since the 1950s, and a recent survey found 82% of them now hold physical gold, up from 71% just a year earlier. Nearly a third said they plan to add more over the next couple of years. The reasoning has less to do with domestic prices than with reducing reliance on any single foreign currency, especially one that a rival government could restrict access to.

A record year for Gold-backed fundsInstitutional and retail money flowing into gold ETFs told a similar story last year. Investors poured roughly $89 billion into gold-backed funds, pushing total holdings to their highest level since the pandemic. That kind of demand tends to build on itself, since rising fund flows can pull prices higher, which then attracts more flows behind them.

Key Takeaway: Two of gold's biggest buyers, central banks and fund investors, are moving for reasons that have more to do with institutional trust than with the price of groceries.

Where the metal actually comes fromA less obvious wrinkle involves how central banks are sourcing their gold. Rather than buying exclusively on the open market, some are now purchasing directly from domestic mines to save on shipping costs and support local industry. That approach also brings small, often loosely regulated mining operations under closer government oversight, and it quietly pulls supply out of circulation before it ever reaches a public exchange.

The quiet shift from jewelry to bars and coinsHigh prices have started to change who's actually buying gold and why. Jewelry demand has been falling, while purchases of bars and coins are on pace for their strongest year since 2013 and are expected to outpace jewelry demand for the first time on record. Buyers who once wanted something to wear increasingly want something to hold as a pure store of value.

Key Takeaway: Even within existing demand, the mix is changing. That shift toward bars and coins tends to support prices more directly than jewelry sales ever did, since investment buying rarely reverses the way fashion trends do.

A weak local currency can matter more than a weak DollarGold's price in dollars gets most of the attention, but plenty of buyers around the world are watching a different number entirely. When the rupee or lira slides, gold priced in that local currency can hit new highs even while the dollar price sits flat. This is one reason gold consumption in a country like India doesn't move in lockstep with U.S. inflation data. Local currency weakness can be its own catalyst, no matter what the Federal Reserve does next.

None of these five forces will show up in a headline about inflation, yet together they explain a meaningful share of gold's momentum this year. For investors trying to separate the noise from what's actually driving the metal, the fundamentals behind physical gold ownership are worth revisiting on their own terms, independent of whatever the next inflation report happens to say.