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Silver holds its 50-week EMA after a positive week, but $70 resistance continues to cap the range.

Gold reclaims its footing as Oil retreat blunts Fed shock

U.S. Dollar Tests New Highs As Treasury Yields Rise

DXY 180926 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled above the 4.73% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries tested the psychologically important 5.00% level.

The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range. If U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 100.65 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 101.50 – 101.65 range.

EUR/USD Pulls Back Ahead Of The Weekend

EUR/USD 180926 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing some ground as traders stay focused on the recent Fed decision and Warsh’s comments. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 57.6% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in October.

In the EU, traders focused on Germany’s PPI report. The report showed that PPI increased by +4.6% year-over-year in August, compared to analyst forecast of +4.1%.

In case EUR/USD settles below the 1.1450 level, it will head towards the nearest support at 1.1420 – 1.1435. On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at 1.1500 – 1.1515 will open the way to the test of the 50 MA at 1.1560.

GBP/USD Gains Ground As UK Retail Sales Exceed Analyst Estimates

GBP/USD 180926 4h Chart GBP/USD rebounds as traders react to UK Retail Sales report. The report showed that Retail Sales increased by +0.5% month-over-month in August, compared to anlayst forecast of -0.2%.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

Every new EUR/USD analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all EUR/USD forecasts If GBP/USD moves above the resistance level at 1.3400 – 1.3415, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.3470 – 1.3485. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

USD/CAD Attempts To Settle Above 1.4000

USD/CAD 180926 4h Chart USD/CAD tests new highs as traders stay bullish despite rising precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.

USD/CAD continues its attempts to settle above the 1.4000 level. In case USD/CAD stays above 1.4000, it will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.4065 – 1.4080 range.

USD/JPY Gains Ground As BoJ Raises Rate To 1.25%

USD/JPY 180926 4h Chart USD/JPY gained strong upside momentum as traders focused on BoJ Interest Rate Decision. The Bank of Japan raised the interest rate from 1% to 1.25%, in line with analyst estimates. However, the BoJ did not provide clear guidance on its plans to raise rates in the future to fight inflation, so the yen found itself under pressure.

I’d note that USD/JPY moved away from session highs as Nikkei reported that BoJ conducted a rate check in the forex market.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at Japan’s inflation data. Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 1.9% in August, while analysts expected that it would rise to 2.1%. Core Inflation Rate decreased from 1.8% to 1.7%, compared to analyst forecast of 1.8%. Inlation data served as an additional bearish catalyst for the yen.

If USD/JPY moves above the resistance at 158.00 – 158.50, it will head towards the resistance level at 160.00 – 160.50. On the support side, a move below the 156.50 level will open the way to the test of the support at 155.00 – 155.50.

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Gold rose in the month after four of the five previous hikes and fell after one. The four gains came when the Fed was cutting, pausing, or expected to cut: the dovish March 2024 meeting the day after, the 50-basis-point cut of September 2024, the hold after three cuts in early 2025, and the December 2025 cut that preceded the blow-off to the January record. The one decline came after the June hike, when the Fed had been signaling hikes since April and held with a hawkish 9-3 vote in July. Gold lost about 13 percent in the month after that one, and the dollar gained about 3 percent.

The BoJ, in other words, has never set gold’s direction.

The Fed’s stance at the time did, every time.

That leaves June as the only analog that applies to a Fed that hiked two days ago with 16 of 18 members expecting more, and June is the row in red.

Two further details from the record. On the three “dovish hike” days when the yen weakened on delivery, March 2024, December 2025, and today, the dollar rose on the day each time and gold ignored it each time. And the one hike that did hit gold directly, July 2024, did so through liquidation rather than through the dollar: the carry-trade unwind sold everything, gold included, while the dollar fell. That is the mechanism a yen shock carries for the metals, and it is a risk-off mechanism, which fits the setup I have been describing rather than arguing against it.

The closest analogy to September 3 is not on the table. It is August. Japan’s record 15.4 trillion yen of intervention between July 30 and August 26 lifted the yen, took the dollar index from about 102 in mid-July to 98.8 on August 21, and gold rallied 10 percent that month. That was the one yen-driven dollar decline that gold did follow, and every bit of it reversed once the dollar broke out in late August.

The Week of the Hike The Fed’s first hike in three years is now behind us, with October about 50 percent priced for a second. Here is what the week did to the numbers that matter.

Key Points:The Fed hiked rates on Wednesday, and it looks like the pullback in metals and miners may be ending.Precious metals began correcting in late August after Warsh hinted at a September rate hike. If gold bottomed on Wednesday, this was a classic “sell the rumor, buy the news” setup.The September pullback in miners was a classic three-wave corrective structure into ideal support at the crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages. Over the next 12 to 18 months, I think miners and white metals could outperform gold.WTIC Spiking oil prices remain the greatest threat to the global economy heading into October. A decisive breakout above $110 would set the stage for fresh highs, potentially extending to $140+ if Saudi production remains offline for more than a few weeks.

Gold Gold bottomed mid-year, in line with our expectations, and we likely just completed the first pullback in a re-emerging uptrend. This looks like a classic “sell the rumor, buy the news” correction ahead of this week’s Fed rate hike. Progressive closes above $4,400 would confirm an interim low (blue arrow). We see prices challenging $5,000 before year-end and $7,000+ in the second half of 2027.

Silver Silver bottomed mid-year as forecasted, and prices likely reached an interim low this week at $62.32. Progressive closes above $70.00 would confirm an upside breakout, reinforcing our view that the white metals may outperform gold into year-end.

Platinum Platinum made a slightly higher high in September, supporting underlying strength and our view that prices could outperform gold from here.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts GDX Gold miners completed a near-perfect three-wave pullback into ideal support at the bullish crossover of the 50- and 200-day moving averages. I think prices bottomed at $91.19, but that view requires a close above the $97.10 price gap for confirmation. Bigger picture, I think miners will continue to outperform into late 2027.

GDXJ I think juniors bottomed on Wednesday in a classic “sell the rumor, buy the news” pullback. Prices need progressive closes above the $125.50 price gap to confirm a September interim low.

SILJ If I’m correct about the white metal and miners outperforming gold from here, then SILJ could offer superior returns relative to physical metal. Near term, prices need a daily close above the $30.50 price gap to confirm a September interim low at $28.01.

Conclusion After strong rallies from their mid-year lows, metals and miners corrected into September.

This pullback has all the hallmarks of a “sell the rumor, buy the news” event, supporting an immediate resumption of the uptrends.

Over the next several weeks, I’ll be keeping a close eye on the white metals and miners to confirm my outlook for outperformance extending into next year.

For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.

AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.

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The US dollar remained largely supported heading into the final hours of an action-packed week. The Fed was hawkish, the dollar rallied then sold off, then bounced back again.

The gold price outlook is holding a bullish structure as crude oil falls more than 8% from monthly highs and U.S. Treasury yi.

Silver pushes higher as global rates remain calm, but $70 resistance still caps the range, with $63 and $60 providing key support on the downside.

Silver Technical Analysis

Daily price chart for Silver futures showing price rebounding to 67.595 toward range resistance. Source: TradingView The silver market continues to see a little bit of upward pressure, and it may have gotten a little bit of help from the Bank of Japan sounding a little less than completely convinced about further rate hikes. Therefore, rates around the world have stayed fairly calm.

Silver, of course, being a non-yielding metal and a non-yielding asset, has a particular vulnerability to higher rates. In this environment, with rates seemingly staying in a somewhat well-defined range in multiple countries, it gives silver a little bit of coverage for buyers to jump in and take advantage of it, as this is a market that has a longer-term bullish situation in the physical world.

Whether or Not We Stay in This Range Remains to Be Seen It is worth noting that we have been trading between the $60 level on the bottom and the $70 level on the top. The $70 level on the top should still continue to be significant resistance, if the charts are to be believed, but it also makes for a nice target for those trying to push silver to the upside.

To the downside, we have the $60 level as support, but the $63 level has shown itself to be supportive as well. All things being equal, silver looks as if it is still very much in a range, and that range has been defended. So, I anticipate more of the same action, but a break above the $70 level could be a big deal.

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USDJPY managed to meet targets 156.75 and 157.40 and move higher. The pair is still showing the ability for more advance towards the 159.50-160.00 zone.

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Fresh downside likely if sustain below 1.1455

Gold eyes weekly gain, but hawkish Fed outlook limits upside

The chairman of the Fed, Kevin Warsh has said that inflation is still too high, and he pointed to the U.S.-Iran war as a significant catalyst. The Fed’s hawkish posture places the Platinum Group Metals (PGM) complex under pressure as it increases the opportunity cost of holding them while the dollar strengthens. Metals in the PGM complex include platinum, palladium, rhodium, ruthenium, iridium, and osmium. And platinum price is more likely to fall against the U.S. dollar when the Fed is hawkish.

WPIC Surplus Revision Masks a Dangerously Thin Inventory Buffer A look at platinum’s fundamental picture reveals an interesting demand & supply narrative. On September 9, 2026, the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) did a big u-turn on its 2026 platinum supply forecast, changing its previous expectation of a 297,000-ounce deficit to a 265,000-ounce surplus. That reversal measures up to a total of 562,000 ounces. When you analyze this move at the surface level, it looks very bearish, as it represents a sudden shift from deficit to oversupply, which usually leaves sellers chasing buyers and crashing the price of a commodity in the process.

However, things are not that straightforward. The WPIC’s change of heart was as a result of diminishing platinum investments, not higher mining output. Let me explain: according to a WPIC report, there was a drop of 534,000 ounces in platinum Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) holdings, as investors were massively selling their shares in the platinum ETF. There was a further reduction in exchange stocks by 65,000 ounces, which led to an overall decline of 599,000 ounces in measured platinum investment demand. These massive investment outflows, which force funds to sell physical platinum blocks held in their vaults and directly translate to a commodity supply shock, were what pushed the WPIC to change their stance on expected 2026 supply.

A 265,000-Ounce Surplus Barely Dents a Three-Year Deficit Now, if we pay attention to the bigger picture, we will see that this forecasted supply shock won’t make much of an impact afterall, as there is a large deficit in the market to absorb it. WPIC CEO Trevor Raymond said by the end of 2026, global platinum inventories will only be able to cover about 3.4 months of demand, even after the ETF supply outflows hit the market. This projection points to a serious global deficit of platinum right now that has been going on for three consecutive years. The measure shortfall in 2025 alone was 1.4 million ounces and a 265,000-ounce surplus will only fill about 8% of the stockpile depleted between 2022 and 2025.

Long story short, not much of a supply shock can be expected when the WPIC’s projected surplus hits the market. Which means that the current market deficit will still very much be in play, and will support the bull case for platinum.

South Africa’s Structural Decline Is Not Reversible on Any Short Timeline Another key factor that determines what happens to platinum’s price is whether the global mining output of the metal is able to meet demand or not. South Africa is home to about 91% of the world’s Platinum Group Metals (PGM) reserves, however, the country’s output has continuously declined over time. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, South Africa’s PGM output declined by an estimated 9% between 2024 and 2025. This decline is mostly as a result of old infrastructure, rising operational costs, and unreliable electricity supply.

To make matters worse, the country’s utility authority, Eskom, has increased mining tariffs by around 60% in the last 5 years, with an April 2026 tariff bump of 8.76%, according to NERSA filings. The problem these electricity costs bring is that once they are deducted from the current prices of platinum, the margins left are significantly smaller.

Mining CEOs Warn the Output Slide Has Years Left to Run According to a June 2026 projection by Sibanye-Stillwater’s executive team, the world’s mining output of platinum is expected to drop by as much as 15% by 2034. In addition to this, the CEO of Northam Platinum, Paul Dunne, sent a troubling outlook to the market and said the industry is already in a terminal decline, with a predicted 10% drop in national platinum output over five years. Also, even if any significant funds are committed to building mines in the Bushveld Complex, a geological formation in South Africa that holds over 70% of the world’s platinum resources, it would still take about 10 to 15 years for those mines to be completed and commercially producing platinum.

Bullish Flag Holds Above Key Support, but the Descending Channel Tests Conviction The daily XPT/USD price chart reveals a bullish flag that has been forming from as far back as January this year. Price recently tested the upper trendline of the flag near $1,920 and rejected it on Thursday, September 10, sending it back down to $1,737 five days later. Platinum is trading near $1,786 per troy ounce as at the time of writing, well above the 1,442 – 1,559 support zone. Price had tested that zone in June and bounced off it, reaching the $1,800 levels by August.

Silver outpaces Gold in post-FOMC rebound as $70 comes into view

Silver price today: Silver rises, according to FXStreet data

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Summary:

The AUD/JPY pair advanced over 1% after the BOJ’s expected rate hike to 1.25%, as dissenters softened the signal while Australia’s 4.35% cash rate preserved a wide, supportive yield differential Near-term outlook for AUD/JPY remains constructive, supported by the persistent interest-rate gap and rising expectations of further RBA tightening Solid demand for high-yielding currencies and broader global market stability continue to support the Australian dollar, encouraging investors to utilize dip-buying carry trade strategies. The Bank of Japan lifted its policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.25%, reaching its highest point since 1995. Board members voted 7-2 on the decision, with two dissenting votes coming from appointees of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

While central bank policy tightening typically strengthens a country’s currency, the Australian dollar actually gained on the yen. AUD/JPY rose over 1% during the Asian trading session, now trading near 112. That might seem strange initially, but it makes sense considering how the market is acting.

Why AUD/JPY Moved Higher The AUD/JPY pair moved higher mainly because the market had already factored in the Bank of Japan’s rate hike. After the announcement, the yen actually weakened. Investors appeared more concerned with the absence of aggressive forward guidance than with the rate increase itself.

Many traders had opened short positions in AUD/JPY ahead of the meeting. The announcement then triggered an immediate unwinding of these trades, as they closed out their yen shorts without clearer signals from Governor Kazuo Ueda.

What’s more, a substantial interest rate gap still favors the Australian dollar. Even with the BoJ’s rate hike to 1.25%, its highest level since 1995, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cash rate remains much higher at 4.35%.

This significant difference supports the AUD/JPY carry trade, a strategy where investors borrow in low-yielding yen to invest in higher-yielding Australian assets.

Outlook for AUD/JPY Favours the Bulls AUD/JPY appears poised for an upward trend in the short term. As long as that interest rate gap remains wide and the RBA stays hawkish, funds will likely continue moving toward the Australian dollar.

The recent price increase and improved technical momentum suggest the pair might test nearby resistance levels, assuming global risk appetite holds steady.

The BOJ’s cautious approach to normalizing policy, alongside Japan’s still-low interest rates compared to other countries, makes it tough for the yen to sustain a recovery against higher-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar.

For AUD/JPY to really strengthen, we’d need ongoing signs of stubborn Australian inflation to keep the RBA’s policy tight. Stable global growth, which would boost commodity demand, would also help. If those conditions align, the pair might gradually appreciate over the next few sessions.

Traders will likely keep buying AUD/JPY dips to profit from yield differences, unless the BoJ signals a series of quick rate hikes. So, the pair looks set to stay bullish and trade within its recent high ranges.

Potential Disruptors to the Momentum Still, a few things could change this path. If BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda sounds more assertive in upcoming statements, or if there are clearer signs of faster rate hikes ahead, that would probably boost the yen and push AUD/JPY down.

Also, a big drop in global risk appetite usually sends investors to the yen as a safe haven, which would hurt the Australian dollar. A slump in key Australian commodity prices, like iron ore, or clear signs of a domestic economic slowdown that makes the RBA pause its tightening could also cut into that yield advantage.

Any unexpected narrowing of the interest rate differential, say if Japan tightens monetary policy more aggressively or Australia shifts its policy sooner, would undermine the carry trade that supports the pair.

Why did AUD/JPY rise after both central banks hiked rates?

The Bank of Japan’s rate hike was widely anticipated and didn’t seem hawkish enough, especially given the split vote. Australia, in contrast, has kept its cash rate much higher, creating a wide yield gap that continues to favor the Australian dollar.

How large is the interest-rate gap between Australia and Japan now?

Australia’s cash rate is still 4.35%, while Japan’s new policy rate sits at 1.25%. This creates an interest rate difference of more than three percentage points, which encourages carry trades.

What role did risk sentiment play in driving the Australian dollar higher on Friday?

Overall global market optimism, combined with the Fed’s interest rate decisions, increased demand for riskier currencies like the Australian dollar. This came at the expense of traditional safe havens such as the yen.

Euro: Hawkish ECB offers limited support against US Dollar - ING

TL;DR: Silver’s correction from 71.16 completed as a three-wave decline to 62.27, well above the $60 danger zone, with a firm break of 68.32 now the near-term test for whether the broader advance from 54.77 is resuming toward 80.32.

Silver’s extended rebound this week indicates the correction from 71.16 completed as a three-wave decline to 62.27. The metal held comfortably above the previously identified $60 support zone and has recovered through its daily and four-hour 55 EMAs. Immediate attention now turns to 68.32. A firm break would transform the move from a corrective rebound into stronger evidence that the broader advance from 54.77 is resuming.

That would initiate a five-step escalation of technical evidence rather than produce an unrestricted path higher. The sequence begins at 68.32, followed by the previous 71.16 peak, projection resistance at 72.46 and 78.76, and finally the major medium-term Fibonacci barrier at 80.32. Each break would strengthen the bullish case, but the larger structural move shouldn’t be considered confirmed before the full ladder is climbed.

The $60 Support Thesis Survives The 62.27 low resolves the standing thesis that the $60 region should hold unless one of several specific downside triggers materialized. None did so cleanly. Gold tested but didn’t decisively break its 4,230–4,254 support zone. The Fed delivered a hawkish decision, but not one that materially exceeded what markets had already priced. Oil also avoided a fresh escalation capable of producing another abrupt rise in inflation expectations and Treasury yields.

Silver ultimately didn’t test $60. It bottomed at 62.27, leaving more than two dollars of room above the danger zone. That doesn’t by itself confirm a new medium-term advance, but it strengthens the earlier support call and shows sellers failed to generate the conditions required for a deeper breakdown.

Oil Relief and Lower Yields Support the Recovery The macro environment has also become less hostile. Saudi Arabia confirmed that three pumping stations on its East-West pipeline were damaged in the September 10 drone strikes, leading to a full shutdown on September 11. The damage was worse than initially assessed, but Aramco is building a bypass around the affected section and expects to restore roughly half of the pipeline’s capacity within days. Satellite imagery from September 16 showed bypass construction underway, while full operations are targeted within five to six weeks.

Saudi Arabia is also supplying additional crude to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers near Oman’s Sohar port, providing a second channel of relief from the immediate supply squeeze. The improvement is meaningful but incomplete. Karobaar Capital’s Haris Khurshid cautioned: “I wouldn’t call it an all-clear situation.” The market is recovering some capacity without fully restoring its margin for error.

The resulting pullback in oil has reduced immediate inflation pressure, while Treasury yields have moved lower. The US 10-year yield fell roughly 5bp around the FOMC announcement to approximately 4.95% and has since drifted toward 4.94%. That represents a continuing retreat from Tuesday’s 5.04% peak, the highest since 2007, rather than a single-session reaction. Lower oil reduces pressure on inflation expectations, while lower yields ease the opportunity-cost headwind facing non-yielding metals.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Silver: Bullish Divergence Supports the 62.27 Low Silver’s fall from 71.16 developed as a three-wave structure. The first leg reached 63.28, the second rebounded to 68.32, and the final leg produced the 62.27 low. Price made a lower low on that final decline, but the four-hour MACD formed a higher trough, producing a bullish divergence.

Momentum has improved materially since then. The four-hour MACD has risen to 0.4778, above its 0.1001 signal line, while RSI at 65.36 shows strong momentum without yet reaching overbought territory. Silver has also reclaimed both its daily and four-hour 55 EMAs, which converge around 64.94–64.98.

The daily chart is less decisive but increasingly constructive. RSI has recovered to 55.68, while price is holding above the daily 55 EMA. The daily MACD remains below its signal line, meaning the larger bullish reversal still requires confirmation from price rather than momentum alone.

Five Steps From 68.32 to 80.32 The first hurdle is 68.32, the peak of the second wave within the decline from 71.16. A firm break would confirm the corrective pattern has been disrupted and add to the case that the broader advance from 54.77 is resuming.

The next target would be the 71.16 high. A break there would establish a fresh recovery high and expose the 61.8% projection of 54.77 to 71.16 from 62.27, at 72.46. That’s the first major test of whether the move can accelerate beyond merely recovering the September decline.

A decisive break of 72.46 could trigger stronger upside momentum toward the 100% projection at 78.76. That target sits close to 80.32, the 38.2% retracement of the long decline from 121.64 to 54.77. The proximity of those two levels creates a concentrated medium-term resistance zone.

The distinction between 68.32 and 80.32 is important. A break of 68.32 would confirm the near-term bullish reversal. A sustained break of 80.32 would provide much more significant evidence that Silver is escaping the broader structure that has constrained it since the 121.64 peak.

Support Defines the Immediate Risk On the downside, 65.16 is the first minor support. A break would dampen the immediate bullish case and suggest the rebound requires further consolidation. The daily and four-hour 55 EMAs around 64.94–64.98 provide the next support cluster.

A sustained fall below those averages would weaken the recovery more materially, while a break of 62.27 would invalidate the completed-correction thesis and bring the $60 region back into focus.

Silver has resolved the first question by holding above $60 and rebounding from 62.27. It hasn’t yet answered the larger one. 68.32 is the near-term referendum on whether the broader rally is resuming; 80.32 is the level that would determine whether that rally has developed into a more consequential structural breakout.

Key Takeaways Silver’s correction from 71.16 completed at 62.27, well above the $60 danger zone, after gold, the Fed, and oil all failed to deliver the deeper breakdown that would have tested that floor. Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline damage is being addressed with a bypass, with full capacity targeted in five to six weeks, easing the immediate oil-driven inflation pressure on precious metals. A four-hour bullish divergence (lower price low, higher MACD trough) supports the case that the decline from 71.16 has completed as a three-wave correction. 68.32 is the first confirmation level; clearing it opens a five-step path toward 71.16, 72.46, 78.76, and ultimately the major 80.32 medium-term resistance. A break below 62.27 would invalidate the completed-correction thesis and bring the $60 support zone back into focus.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

EUR/USD – Downside continuation post FOMC in the play? [Video]

USD/JPY surges to 157.1 this morning

Gold prices rise as falling Oil prices provide support

Gold is trading near 4,360 USD per ounce on Friday after gaining almost 2% in the previous session. The precious metal has found support from falling oil prices, which have helped ease inflation concerns and pushed bond yields lower.

Oil prices have declined for a third consecutive session as Saudi Arabia works to restore supplies through the East-West pipeline. Markets are also focusing on Donald Trump’s meeting with Gulf leaders scheduled for next week.

US Treasury yields have also retreated from multi-year highs. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to 4.93% after briefly moving above 5% earlier this week.

Meanwhile, investors continue to assess the outlook for Federal Reserve policy following its first interest rate increase in three years. The Fed has signalled that further tightening may be necessary to bring inflation under control.

Markets currently estimate the probability of another rate increase as early as October at around 53%. This remains a risk factor for gold, although lower oil prices and falling Treasury yields are providing temporary support.

XAU/USD Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around 4,304. A downward move towards 4,234 and a subsequent rebound towards 4,381 have now been completed.

Today, a new downward move is developing towards 4,333. A break below this level could open the way for the bearish trend to continue towards 4,215.

The MACD indicator supports continued short-term downward momentum. Its signal line remains below zero and points firmly downward.

On the H1 XAU/USD chart, the market broke above 4,305 and moved higher towards 4,335, followed by a decline back to 4,305, testing the level from above. A consolidation range then formed around 4,305.

The market subsequently broke above this range and moved higher towards 4,381. The main scenario now envisages a new decline towards 4,215.

The Stochastic oscillator supports this bearish scenario. Its signal line remains above 80 and is poised to turn lower towards 20 in the short term.

XAU/USD Outlook Gold is receiving short-term support from falling oil prices and lower US Treasury yields. However, expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening continue to limit the precious metal’s upside potential.

From a technical perspective, the recent rally towards 4,381 appears to have completed the corrective upward move. The main scenario now points to a decline towards 4,333, with a break below this level potentially extending the downward trend towards 4,215.

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The Pound-Dollar could remain under pressure if UK retail sales disappoint, while firmer US industrial output may offer the Dollar fresh support. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate faced turbulence on Thursday as the US and UK central bank decisions infused markets with volatility.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3380, virtually unchanged on the day but having struck a seven-week low earlier in the session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.335557 (-0.20%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.147842 (+0.08%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 155.9695 (-0.04%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) initially edged lower on Thursday, having struck a seven-week high against the Pound (GBP) on Wednesday evening in the wake of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision.

The Fed voted unanimously to raise rates for the first time since 2023, bringing the Fed funds rate to 4%.

While the hike was broadly expected, the unanimous decision and hawkish messaging from the Fed propelled USD higher.

Meanwhile, the Pound managed to crawl up from its multi-week lows on Thursday, although its upside was limited by the looming Bank of England (BoE) decision.

Sterling then faced volatility in the wake of the BoE’s announcement, plunging to a fresh multi-week low before recouping its losses.

The bank left interest rates unchanged, with policymakers voting six to three in favour of holding steady. While the decision was broadly as markets expected, it still lent slightly on the dovish side.

However, the BoE also sounded concerned about the upside inflation risks amid the ongoing war in Iran, so this limited GBP’s losses.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Sales Data to Dent the Pound? Looking ahead, the UK’s latest retail sales data could shape Pound movement as the week draws to a close.

Economists are forecasting a 0.2% decline in sales growth for August, following a 0.5% contraction in July. Should the figures align with expectations, another fall in consumer spending could fuel concerns over the strength of the UK economy and put pressure on GBP.

Meanwhile, a modest rise in US industrial production in August could lend USD some support.

Risk appetite could also impact the GBP/USD exchange rate. If sentiment sours, the safe-haven Dollar could gain ground against the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Euro: Downtrend extends toward 1.1400 against US Dollar – UOB

TL;DR: USD/JPY is testing 157.11 as one widening policy differential, not two separate stories—the Fed is accelerating into a new tightening phase while the BoJ’s divided vote reduced the odds of a back-to-back hike, both reinforcing the same Dollar-favorable repricing.

USD/JPY’s rise this week is best understood as one widening policy differential with two reinforcing legs. The Federal Reserve is accelerating into a new tightening phase, while the Bank of Japan’s divided rate decision reduced the already-small probability of another increase at its next meeting. The pair is now testing 157.11, the precise technical level where the market must decide whether that combined repricing has enough force to extend toward the politically sensitive 160 area.

Fed Follow-Up Risk Continues to Rise The Fed side of the differential remains active. Wednesday’s unanimous rate increase was accompanied by a hawkish set of projections, while the Dollar Index subsequently completed a double-bottom reversal. The full FOMC and SEP implications are covered in Dollar Index Completes Double Bottom, Targets 100.59 as Markets Look Beyond Fed’s 4.1% 2027 Median.

The fresh development is that the probability of another Fed increase on October 28 has climbed to 53% from 27.2% one week ago. Markets are therefore not treating Wednesday’s move as an isolated adjustment. The US side of the USD/JPY differential continues to widen as investors assign greater weight to consecutive tightening.

BoJ Delivers a Hike but Reveals a Three-Way Split The BoJ raised its short-term policy rate by 25bp to 1.25%, its highest since 1995, effective September 24. The decision passed by a 7–2 vote, while the statement retained a tightening bias. The Bank said underlying CPI inflation was approaching 2%, warned it could overshoot the target, and pledged to continue raising rates as economic activity, prices, and financial conditions evolved.

The composition of the vote was more important than the headline increase. Policy Board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato, both reflationist appointees of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration, opposed the hike. Asada pointed to core inflation below 2% and questioned whether the economy was strong enough to absorb another increase. Sato argued economic and price conditions hadn’t accelerated sufficiently to justify tightening.

The board wasn’t divided along a simple hawk-versus-center line. Policy Board members Hajime Takata and Naoki Tamura supported the hike but objected to the BoJ’s inflation description because they believed underlying inflation had already reached a level consistent with the 2% target. The result was a genuine three-way split: two members opposed tightening, a central majority supported the official assessment, and two supporters considered that assessment insufficiently hawkish.

Immediate Follow-Up Risk Fades, but Normalization Continues Before the decision, the possibility of another hike at the October 30 meeting was already only a tail risk, reportedly carrying around 10–15% probability. The two dovish dissents further reduced that possibility rather than reversing an established expectation for consecutive tightening.

The distinction matters. The BoJ hasn’t abandoned normalization. September’s hike came only three months after June’s move, compared with the six-month interval before that. The realized pace has already accelerated to approximately one hike per quarter. What markets downgraded was the possibility of an even faster, back-to-back move at the next meeting.

The statement also identified AI-related demand, alongside high oil prices and Yen depreciation, as a source of inflation pressure. Rising semiconductor and goods costs are expected to help push core inflation clearly above 2% from the second half of fiscal 2026, echoing broader concerns raised by other central banks about the near-term inflationary effects of the AI investment boom.

Yen and JGBs Reflect the Market’s Interpretation Yen weakened after the decision, while the 10-year Japanese government bond yield fell 4.9bp to 2.947%. Both reactions showed markets treated the divided board and reduced risk of an immediate follow-up hike as more informative than the delivered 25bp increase.

That reaction reinforced the same direction of travel as the Fed repricing. Rising odds of another US hike and fading risk of consecutive BoJ tightening both widened the near-term policy differential in the Dollar’s favor. USD/JPY’s rebound is therefore not two central-bank stories coincidentally landing in the same week. It’s one relative-rate trade expressed through two policy developments.

ActionForex’s Technical View on USD/JPY: First 157.11, Then the Road Toward 160 USD/JPY has reached 157.11, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 163.97 to 152.87. A decisive break would suggest the fall from 163.97 has completed as a three-wave corrective move to 152.87, on a bullish divergence condition in the 4H MACD.

That came after finding support slightly above a key confluence level, the 152.25 structural support and 50% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 151.92.

In this case, the next target will be the 55-day EMA, now at 158.72. A break there would put the 61.8% retracement of 163.97 to 152.87 at 159.72 in focus—that is, the 160 intervention zone.

Though rejection by 157.11, followed by a break of 155.32 support, would bring a deeper fall back to the 152.87 low instead.

Key Takeaways USD/JPY’s rise reflects one widening policy differential, not two separate stories: rising Fed hike odds and fading risk of a back-to-back BoJ hike both point the same direction. October Fed hike odds jumped from 27.2% to 53% in a week, confirming markets see Wednesday’s hike as the start of consecutive tightening, not an isolated move. The BoJ’s 7-2 vote revealed a genuine three-way split: two reflationist dissenters opposed the hike, while two hawkish supporters wanted an even more explicit inflation warning. The BoJ’s realized pace has already accelerated to roughly one hike per quarter; what faded was only the tail risk of an immediate follow-up hike in October, not normalization itself. USD/JPY faces 157.11 as the first test; a break opens 158.72 and then 159.72 (the 160 intervention zone), while rejection and a break of 155.32 would instead point back toward 152.87.

ActionForex

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