For much of the past decade, traders have believed that a strong U.S dollar and higher real yields would continue to cap Precious Metals. That narrative may now be changing.
A rare combination of macroeconomic and technical developments is beginning to align. A weakening U.S. dollar, record central bank buying, signs that capital is rotating away from one of the year’s most crowded trades and increasingly constructive price action are creating a backdrop that could make August one of the most compelling buying opportunities for Gold and Silver in years.
One of the most significant developments is the apparent breakdown of the U.S. Dollar Index below a secular trendline that has defined the currency’s direction for more than 15 years.
Long-term technical breaks of this magnitude rarely occur in isolation. They often coincide with structural shifts in monetary policy, capital flows and institutional positioning.
Adding to the significance, reports that U.S and Japanese authorities have coordinated intervention to support the yen for the first time in decades suggest policymakers are becoming increasingly comfortable with a weaker dollar. If that trend continues, it could become a powerful tailwind for Precious Metals.
“A sustained decline in the U.S dollar has historically provided one of the strongest macro backdrops for Gold and Silver,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “Currency trends of this scale rarely unfold over weeks – they often persist for years.”
Perhaps the most overlooked macro development has been the divergence between Precious Metals and semiconductor equities.
Since March, Gold has experienced approximately $17.5 billion of cumulative outflows, while semiconductor ETFs have attracted around $22.5 billion of inflows. Rather than viewing these as separate stories, there is a compelling case they represent the same trade; capital rotating from monetary hedges into AI-driven momentum.
If that interpretation is correct, the reverse could prove equally powerful.
As semiconductor momentum begins to fade, even a modest rotation of institutional capital back into Gold could materially strengthen the Precious Metals outlook. Recent weakness across semiconductor stocks has already coincided with renewed buying interest in Gold.
“Markets are ultimately driven by capital allocation,” Hansen says. “When one of the year’s most crowded momentum trades begins losing momentum, smart money naturally starts looking for value, diversification and defensive assets.”
The most important technical development is not how high Gold has risen, but where institutional capital is increasingly willing to buy it.
Every major bull market establishes progressively higher price floors. Levels once considered expensive including $1,000, $2,000 and later $3,000 an ounce – eventually became major support as institutional demand strengthened.
There is growing evidence that $4,000 may now be following the same path.
Rather than triggering aggressive profit-taking, pullbacks towards this region are increasingly attracting long-term buyers. If that behaviour continues, $4,000 could evolve from a psychological milestone into the next structural foundation of Gold’s secular bull market.
“Bull markets mature by building higher floors,” Hansen explains. “When pullbacks become buying opportunities rather than reasons to sell, it often signals a new long-term base is forming.”
There is no denying the strongest pillar supporting Gold today is official sector demand.
Global central bank purchases reached 289 tonnes during the second quarter of 2026, the strongest quarterly accumulation since late 2024. Year-to-date purchases have now reached 345 tonnes, putting annual demand on pace for roughly 700 tonnes despite Gold trading close to record highs.
This is particularly significant because central banks tend to buy for strategic, long-term reserve management rather than short-term speculation. Their continued accumulation suggests confidence in Gold’s role as a monetary asset remains exceptionally strong.
“The biggest opportunities often emerge when several independent macro themes begin pointing in the same direction,” Hansen says. “We’re seeing sustained central bank buying, the prospect of a structurally weaker U.S dollar and improving technical conditions all converging simultaneously.”
History shows Gold typically leads Precious Metals bull markets, but Silver often delivers the strongest gains once institutional participation broadens.
Alongside investment demand, Silver is benefiting from expanding industrial consumption across artificial intelligence infrastructure, electrification and solar energy.
If investment capital begins rotating back into Precious Metals from crowded AI trades, Silver’s smaller market size and historically higher beta could allow it to outperform Gold.
“Silver has a long history of outperforming during the strongest phases of Precious Metals bull markets,” Hansen notes. “If capital continues flowing into the sector, Silver has the potential to surprise.”
One defining characteristic of major Commodity bull markets is that they rarely provide prolonged buying opportunities once momentum accelerates.
By the time headlines unanimously support higher Precious Metal prices, much of the move has often already occurred. Seasoned traders and institutional investors typically position themselves while uncertainty remains – not after consensus has formed.
That is precisely why August deserves close attention.
A weakening U.S dollar, record central bank demand, the potential rotation of capital away from crowded semiconductor positions, the emergence of $4,000 as a potential long-term support level and increasingly favourable technical conditions are combining to create one of the strongest macro backdrops for Precious Metals seen in years.
“The market rarely announces when the next major leg higher is about to begin,” Hansen says. “Those who wait for absolute certainty often end up paying considerably higher prices.”
For traders seeking diversification, protection against currency weakness and exposure to one of the strongest structural themes developing across global markets, August could represent one of the best opportunities to accumulate Gold and Silver since 2020.
If today’s macro landscape continues to unfold, this summer’s consolidation may ultimately be remembered not as a pause, but as the period when long-term traders were given one final opportunity to build positions before the next significant leg higher.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
USD/JPY Talking Points: Last week had both the Fed and the BoJ, but it was something that happened outside of those rate decisions that drove the major volatility in USD/JPY. The currency pair dropped dramatically on Thursday and Friday and that extended through this week’s open, but prices have since started to bounce just above a key level at the 155.00 area.
While fundamentals and headlines can often show direct drive in a market, the only thing that really matters is the actual act of buying and selling. To be sure, fundamentals do often carry impact on price but that relationship is imperfect, to the point that it can sometimes be straight up counter-intuitive.
This is both obvious and mysterious, at least if we judge market participants by what they say or what they often follow against what they do. While it’s data prints and central banks that usually drive the headlines, the fact of the matter is that in a market where anyone willing and able to be long already is, well it doesn’t matter how great the news might be, there’s simply no buyers left to hit the bid.
And sometimes, when a market does get incredibly one-sided, even the slightest hint or whiff of change can compel a monstrous counter-trend move as longs head for the exits. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a reversal is afoot, and the past five years in USD/JPY has episodes that had staying power as well as those that were temporary blips. But this highlights the fact that, while fundamentals often determine long-term trajectory they don’t always dictate short-term directional moves.
In USD/JPY, the fundamentals remain tilted to the long side in the pair, owed to the interest rate disparity between the two economies. If Japan did want to narrow that, they could, by hiking interest rates. But, as I looked at multiple times over the past couple weeks, that comes at a cost, and with risks, and it’s apparent at this point that the Bank of Japan does not want to face those risks. With an aging population that’s expected to decline considerably in the coming decades, choking off growth runs the risk of another deflationary spiral, similar to what showed in recent years in Japan which led to only larger demographic issues and political volatility.
To be sure this isn’t the first time that the Bank of Japan was faced with this dilemma. They’ve intervened multiple times in the past four years and each has seemingly failed. Sure, those interventions did serve to run stops on longs while pushing prices back to support, but they were functionally unable to reverse the trend as the backing fundamental divergence remained in-place.
What’s different about this current episode is that Japan is not going at it alone, as they now seem to have the assistance of the US Treasury Department. I wrote about this on Friday going into the weekend and since then, there was an item that went viral across social media, as US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had his notepad in view of reporters, and on it was a memo to buy Japanese Yen, to the tune of five to ten billion.
At this point we don’t know if they did or not. There were circulating rumors on Friday that the Treasury Department asked the New York Fed to call into banks to as about rate quotes on the Yen. This is often seen as a pre-cursor to a possible intervention as both the New York Fed and US Treasury Department can already see quotes and they certainly have access to an EBS system. The act of actually calling can be seen as trying to sound somewhat threatening, which led to the additional rumor on Friday morning that the New York Fed had went as far as to warn banks that there may be action taken in the Japanese Yen market.
To be sure, this is a lot of headline hunting and rumor mongering, but it comes on the heels of Scott Bessent talking up the prospect of a Bretton Woods 2.0, which was essentially a currency fixing regime, and given the timeline of everything, it all seems to fit and make sense.
But perhaps the bigger and more pertinent question, is how aggressively will they hit the intervention. The 155.00 level is a massive spot in USD/JPY and that’s already almost come into play, nearly 900 pips away from last week’s high. Traders can still earn rollover on the long side of the pair by buying the higher yielder of the USD and selling the lower yielder of the Japanese Yen. But, there’s something else to consider which I’ll touch on below the next chart.
USD/JPY Weekly: Crowded Trades, Crowded Exits Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY What’s Behind the Carry Trade? Thinking of the matter from a rollover perspective is helpful, but it’s also remiss to consider only the retail side of the matter.
The large bulk of the lift from the carry trade comes from institutions employing a degree of rate arbitrage between economies. If rates in Japan are low or near zero while rates in the US are lifting and getting higher, there’s an increasingly attractive opportunity there, as a pension or hedge fund can go to a Japanese bank, get a cheap loan, and then invest that capital elsewhere.
The only problem with that is the currency exposure as the pension or hedge fund getting the loan gets the loan in Yen, and if the JPY is weakening on the basis of loose monetary policy unable to keep up with tightening elsewhere, the profits can essentially go up in smoke on the basis of that currency weakness alone.
So, these institutions will often look to hedge that risk and one way to do so is by buying another currency and selling Japanese Yen in the marketplace to offset that risk. And then, not only does that institution effectively eliminate their currency risk from the loan that they received, they also bring on the possibility of capital appreciation in the hedge itself.
But – if we get to a space where it become somewhat obvious that the hedge may go in the other direction, as a crowded trade brings on a crowded exit whether its from an intervention or worsening US data or a threat of rate hikes out of Japan, well, there’s less reason to hold that hedge and, instead, absorb the currency risk.
This is one reason those trades in USD/JPY can go the other way so quickly. But it’s also one of the reasons why the trend has persisted for so long even with Japanese policymakers taking numerous shots at bringing on a reversal.
So perhaps the operative question at this point is whether policymakers from the US and/or Japan are finished or whether they take another shot at speculators by trying to run stops below 155.00. If they do, the next logical place to look for support is the 152 area which is, perhaps ironically, the level that the BoJ initially tried to defend in this cycle of interventions back in 2022.
USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) recovers some ground, even though hostilities in the Middle East paused at the request of Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, according to US President Donald Trump. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,037, down 0.12%.
XAU/USD retreats on geopolitical uncertainty, stronger US factory activity; Fed repricingThe Greenback has bounced off month-and-a-half lows reached earlier in the session, following an intervention in the FX markets by US and Japanese authorities, which propelled the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, geopolitics is pushing US economic data to the backseat, as Trump crosses the wires.
He said that “Iran conflict is working out very well,” though added that Iran’s leadership is duplicitous, asking for talks, but publicly states that they’re not having discussions. Trump added that the US Navy blockade will stay in place until Iran signs a deal which includes to never having a nuclear weapon and keeping the Strait of Hormuz open.
Recently, the US President added: “I’m not going to let Iran charge to go through Hormuz Strait.”
On the data front, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), reported that the Manufacturing Purchasers Managers Index (PMI) in July expanded at the highest pace in four years, with the PMI improving from 53.3 to 55.6, crushing forecasts of 54. The employment sub-component in companies rose for the first time since 2023, although prices paid suggest input costs still remain high.
The report showed sustained demand, clarity on tariffs, and the dissipation of supply disruptions related to the Gulf War, which increased demand in the jobs market.
Meanwhile, the dip in Oil prices triggered a repricing for a less hawkish Federal Reserve. Investors expect 22 basis points of tightening towards the end of 2026, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalHowever, uncertainty in the US-Iran conflict remains high. A jump in energy prices could open the door to higher interest rates, which could prompt a repricing toward a more hawkish Fed.
At the last Fed meeting, three members dissented, opting for a 25-basis-point rate hike. They explained that delaying higher borrowing costs could keep inflation above the Fed's 2% target.
Recently, New York Fed President John Williams said the central bank was ready to tighten policy if inflation pressures did not ease.
This week, the US economic docket will feature a series of US jobs reports, including the ADP National Employment Change, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), jobless claims, and the Nonfarm Payrolls report.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold trades above/below $4,050, directionlessGold continues to move sideways after falling below the $4,100 level since mid-last week. Bullish momentum has faded, and the downside is evident in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The RSI, although bearish – below its 50-neutral level, shifted flattish after edging lower, an indication that neither buyers nor sellers are opening fresh directional bets.
Nevertheless, the market structure of a successive series of lower highs and lower lows, and Gold prices trading below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggest that further downside is seen in the short term.
Downwards, the first support is the July 24 low of $4,022. A break below this level could open the door to the key psychological level of $4,000 and the June 17 daily low of $3,959.
For a bullish continuation, buyers need to push back above $4,100, targeting the July 22 high of $4,165, with the possibility of testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average near $4,185. The next resistance sits at the July 6 peak of $4,202.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,035Easing Middle East tensions cause Oil prices to edge sharply lower.United States employment data taking center stage this week. XAU/USD holds above $4,000, but sellers hold the grip.Spot Gold trades in the $4,030 price zone, little changed from Friday’s close, yet down on Monday after starting the week with a bullish gap. The US Dollar (USD) eased throughout the first half of the day, as easing Middle East tensions caused Oil prices to fall. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovers around $78, down from last week’s close at roughly $85.
United States (US) President Donald Trump boosted the mood after announcing he halted a massive planned attack on Iran as negotiations would restart on Monday afternoon. Later in the day, however, US officials told CBS that there are no new negotiations planned, just the ongoing talks between American and Iranian negotiating teams through mediators.
The USD changed course after its initial slide and turned ´positive across the FX board, getting an extra push during American trading hours from the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI). The index rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June, also beating the expected 54.
War developments and US employment data will set the market’s tone this week. The US will publish several labor-related figures, including JOLTS Job Openings and the ADP Employment Change survey ahead of the July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
In the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD offers a neutral-to-bearish stance, as the pair sits below all its moving averages. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) stands at $4,065.14, the 100-period SMA at $4,053.24, and the 200-period SMA at $4,075.53, providing a strong layer of resistance while lacking directional strength. At the same time, the Momentum indicator heads south below its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers around 43, hinting that bears retain the initiative despite the absence of extreme conditions.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD the technical picture is similar. The metal remains below its moving averages, with the 20-day SMA at $4,060.40, and is gaining downward traction. The 14-day RSI indicator at 44.86 stays below the midline, while the 14-day Momentum indicator heads nowhere within neutral levels, which together hint that any recovery attempts could struggle while price remains beneath these key averages.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-period SMA near $4,053.24, where any intraday rebound would first be tested. Above that, the 20-period SMA at $4,065.14 forms a secondary barrier, ahead of a more robust resistance zone at the 200-period SMA around $4,075.53, which would need to be reclaimed to ease the current bearish bias. The $4,000 mark provides immediate support ahead of the June low at $3,941.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders focused on recent currency interventions. U.S. intervened to support the Japanese yen. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, and the country could be forced to start selling Treasuries to support the local currency. U.S. intervention pushed yen higher and lowered the risk of additional sales of Treasuries by Japan.
Falling Treasury yields did not provide support to gold markets as traders remained focused on longer-term Fed policy outlook. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 66.5% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in September.
Gold continues its attempts to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. This support level has been tested many times and proved its strength. In case gold manages to settle below the $4020 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. A move below the $3930 level will provide gold with an opportunity to gain additional downside momentum.
On the upside, a move above the $4100 level will push gold towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the $4180 – $4200 range.
Silver Remains Stuck Near Key Support At $56.00 – $57.00
AUD/USD waits for a clearer signalDirectional bias: Neutral to bullish above 0.6900, although repeated difficulty clearing 0.7000 leaves the pair exposed to another rejection.
Preferred approach: Patience may offer a better risk-reward profile than chasing the pair immediately below resistance. A confirmed break above the 0.7000 threshold or a pullback that holds around the 200-day SMA would provide a cleaner setup.
Bullish trigger: A sustained move above 0.7000, ideally supported by firm Australian labour data, stronger expectations of another RBA rate increase, lower US yields or an improvement in risk appetite.
Bearish trigger: Another failure at 0.7000, accompanied by renewed US Dollar strength or a generalised deterioration in market sentiment.
Key invalidation level: A daily close below the 200-day SMA around 0.6900 would undermine the broader constructive structure and increase the risk of a deeper retracement in the short-term horizon.
Three paths from the 0.7000 crossroadsBase case: The range holds
AUD/USD could remain trapped between the 0.7000 psychological barrier and the 200-day SMA just above 0.6900 while traders wait for a sufficiently strong catalyst.
Australia’s relatively solid domestic fundamentals and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) cautious stance should discourage aggressive selling. At the same time, persistent demand for the Greenback and geopolitical uncertainty could prevent an immediate breakout.
Until either boundary gives way, spot may be better treated as a side-lined trade than a convincing directional move.
Bull case: Buyers establish a foothold above 0.7000
A convincing break above 0.7000 would suggest that buyers have absorbed the selling pressure surrounding this closely watched threshold.
The breakout would carry greater conviction if supported by:
Firmer-than-expected Australian data releases.A stable or lower Unemployment Rate.Increased expectations of another RBA rate hike.Lower US yields and a softer US Dollar.An improvement in risk-linked sentiment.Under this scenario, the next important medium-term target would emerge around 0.7200, followed by the 2026 ceiling near 0.7280.
The sizeable build-up of speculative AUD shorts could add fuel to the move if a confirmed breakout forces bearish traders to unwind their positions.
Bear case: Another rejection opens the door to 0.6900
A fresh failure around 0.7000 could bring sellers back into the market, particularly if the Greenback regains momentum or global risk appetite deteriorates.
The next major test would then be the 200-day SMA around 0.6900. A daily close below this area would damage the wider bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper correction.
Once that support gives way, previous resistance and consolidation zones below 0.6900 could return to focus.
Australia’s economy continues to hold its groundAustralia’s domestic backdrop remains relatively healthy, supported by firm demand, positive growth and a resilient labour market.
July business surveys reinforced that picture. The Manufacturing PMI improved to 52.0 from 51.5, while the Services PMI rose to 53.0 from 50.5, leaving both sectors comfortably in expansionary territory.
The June labour-market report was also encouraging. The Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.4%, while Employment Change jumped by 76.3K following a revised 44K increase in May.
Still, the picture is not uniformly positive. Australia recorded an A$3.018 billion trade deficit in May, reversing April’s A$1.383 billion surplus. Economic growth also slowed to 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first three months of 2026, down from 0.9%, while annual growth held at 2.5%.
Overall the figures suggest a resilient economy but perhaps not strong enough on its own to trigger a sustained breakout in AUD/USD.
Inflation leaves the RBA with unfinished businessAustralian headline inflation eased to 3.9% in the second quarter from 4.1%. Underlying price pressures, however, remained uncomfortable. Both the Trimmed Mean and Weighted Median measures rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in the previous quarter.
Consumer inflation expectations offered some relief, falling to 4.7% in July from 5.5%, according to the Melbourne Institute. Even so, inflation remains too high for the RBA to declare victory.
The central bank left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35% in June and maintained a cautious message. Policymakers warned that further tightening could still be required if inflation proves more persistent than expected.
Governor Michele Bullock struck a more balanced tone. While keeping the possibility of another rate increase alive, she suggested there was no immediate need to tighten again as the economy was broadly evolving in line with expectations.
Markets expect the RBA to remain on hold at its August meeting while continuing to price the possibility of additional tightening before year-end. So far, nearly 15 basis points of extra tightening are pencilled in by the turn of the year.
That stance provides the AUD with some domestic support, but it is not necessarily enough to trigger an immediate rally. Further gains may require incoming data to strengthen the case for another rate increase.
China steadies but offers little additional liftChina remains an important influence on the Australian currency, although it is currently providing stability rather than a powerful tailwind.
The Chinese economy expanded by 4.3% YoY in the April-June period, Industrial Production rose by 5.3% in the year to June, and Retail Sales increased by a more modest 1.0%.
Business surveys suggest that activity is stabilising. The official Manufacturing and Services PMIs remained slightly above the 50 threshold, while private-sector gauges continued to signal expansion.
China’s trade surplus also widened to $125.62 billion in June from $105.4 billion, supported by stronger imports and exports.
Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its Loan Prime Rates (LPR) unchanged, keeping the one-year rate at 3.00% and the five-year rate at 3.50%.
China is therefore neither delivering a major boost nor creating a significant drag. Unless the data reveal a clearer acceleration or deterioration, Chinese releases may generate short-term volatility without establishing a lasting direction for the pair.
Bearish positioning remains heavy, but momentum is fadingThe speculative mood on the Australian Dollar stayed bearish in the week ended July 28. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed net short positions rose to almost 40K contracts from 37.7K a week before.
However, the weekly increase in bearish exposure has decelerated to around 2.3K contracts from 7K previously. That said, the non-commercial players are still building on their downside positions, but with less urgency than earlier this summer.
Open interest also increased slightly to around 229.8K contracts from just above 225K, indicating a slight increase in market participation. In addition, speculative exposure decreased as well to -17.4% (from -16.7%).
The broader trend points to a similar loss of momentum. Indeed, the 4-week change improved to -22.3K contracts from -24.7K, suggesting that cumulative bearish flows are gradually cooling.
Overall, speculators remain firmly bearish on the Aussie, but that view is becoming more established than aggressive. This means the AUD position is increasingly reliant on incoming economic data.
It also creates an interesting asymmetry. Disappointing data could reinforce the prevailing bearish bias, but a convincing improvement in the outlook could trigger a sharper reaction as crowded short positions are unwound.
Jobs data take centre stageAustralia’s July Labour Force report will be the next major domestic test for the Australian Dollar. The release could influence expectations for the RBA’s next move and determine whether AUD/USD can establish itself above 0.7000.
Stronger-than-expected labour data
A solid increase in employment, particularly full-time employment, combined with a stable or lower jobless rate would reinforce the view that the labour market remains tight.
Firm participation and hours-worked figures would add credibility to the headline result. Such an outcome could strengthen expectations of another RBA rate increase and support a sustained move above 0.7000 of the pair.
A broadly balanced report
Employment growth close to expectations, accompanied by little change in unemployment or participation, would probably leave the RBA outlook largely unchanged.
In that case, AUD/USD could remain confined between resistance around 0.7000 and the 200-day SMA just past 0.6900, with its direction determined primarily by the US Dollar and global risk sentiment.
A clear deterioration in the labour market
Weak or negative employment growth, particularly alongside a rise in the Unemployment Rate, would raise questions about the resilience of the Australian economy.
A drop in hours worked or a result driven mainly by part-time employment would make the report look even softer. This could reduce expectations of further RBA tightening and leave spot vulnerable to a renewed test of 0.6900.
Participation will require careful attention. A lower Unemployment Rate caused by people leaving the labour force would be less encouraging than the headline figure might initially suggest.
Beyond the domestic data, traders should continue to monitor US yields, Federal Reserve expectations, Chinese developments, global risk appetite and geopolitical headlines.
Technical landscapeIn the daily chart, AUD/USD trades at 0.6994, holding above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.6913 but still capped by the 55-day SMA at 0.7019 and the 100-day SMA at 0.7053, which keeps the near-term tone neutral-to-bearish. Momentum is modestly constructive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near 51, while the Average Directional Index (14) around 15 suggests a weak, non-trending environment where price is more likely to consolidate beneath these moving average barriers than to embark on a decisive directional move.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the short-term SMAs, with the 55-day SMA at 0.7019 followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7053, ahead of a horizontal cap near 0.7079; higher up, the 0.7278–0.7283 region and then 0.7661 mark more substantial medium-term hurdles. On the downside, initial support aligns with the 200-day SMA at 0.6913, before the horizontal floor at 0.6833, while deeper retracements would expose 0.6660 and 0.6593, with 0.6414 and 0.6373 acting as longer-term bearish objectives if selling pressure resumes.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The line in the sand remains 0.6900AUD/USD retains a constructive medium-term structure above its 200-day SMA, but the immediate outlook remains uncertain while the pair struggles to secure a foothold above 0.7000.
The most attractive setup remains conditional. Confirmed acceptance above 0.7000 would favour additional gains and could trigger a positioning-driven short squeeze. Another rejection, however, would leave the pair exposed to a return toward 0.6900.
Until one of these boundaries breaks, AUD/USD remains caught between supportive Australian fundamentals and an external backdrop still dominated by the US Dollar, geopolitical uncertainty and only moderate support from China.
Employment FAQs Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats some 0.27% on Monday as the Greenback recovers some ground amid a pause in US strikes on Iran, while both parties are expected to resume negotiations aimed at securing a rapid deal. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3439, after reaching a daily high of 1.3506. Read More...
British Pound eases to 1.3450 area following downwardly revised Manufacturing PMI dataThe British Pound (GBP) is trimming previous gains against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, returning to the mid-range of the 1.3400s down from fresh seven-week highs, above 1.3500 earlier on the day. Weaker-than-expected UK manufacturing data added pressure on the Pound, which rallied at the Asian session opening, amid news of a halt to the hostilities in Iran. Read More...
British Pound struggles despite easing risk aversionGBP/USD holds losses after three days of gains, trading around 1.3470 during the Asian hours on Monday. The currency pair may regain its footing as the US Dollar (USD) struggles under easing risk aversion, driven by hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States (US) and Iran following reports that US President Donald Trump held off on planned strikes. Read More...
· USDJPY sinks below 200-SMA as Japan fires intervention ahead of NFP
· EURUSD tests key resistance trendline after exciting rally
· Gold continues to flatline as rate hike expectations weigh. Is a breakout approaching?
US Nonfarm Payrolls → USD/JPYAccording to reports, the US and Japan finally stepped in to support the yen, sending USDJPY almost 5% lower toward May's low near 155. Hopes that the US and Iran could return to negotiations added to the selling pressure on Monday.
From a technical perspective, this intervention looks more meaningful than previous ones, as the pair has slipped below its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time in nearly a year. That puts the bears in control for now, although history shows intervention-driven moves can fade if the Bank of Japan refrains from confidently signaling further rate hikes.
The spotlight now turns to Friday's US nonfarm payrolls report. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has made it clear that future policy will depend on incoming data, leaving markets highly sensitive to this week's releases. Payrolls are expected to show another muted increase of 83k in July, pushing the unemployment rate slightly up to 4.3% while holding average hourly earnings flat at 3.5% y/y. Since Kevin Warsh is firmly committed to a data-dependent approach, traders will be watching closely to see whether the private ADP report and ISM PMIs can spark a more volatile market reaction ahead of the NFP release.
A softer set of numbers could drag USDJPY toward 153.95, with 51.80-152 coming into focus next. On the other hand, payroll growth above 100k could help the pair reclaim its 200-day SMA at 157.80, while a move above 158.30 would put buyers back in charge.
Eurozone retail sales → EUR/USDThe eurozone calendar is fairly quiet this week after July inflation unexpectedly picked up, reviving expectations that the ECB could still raise interest rates by 25bps as early as September despite trying to downplay inflation expectations during last week's policy meeting.
With retail sales the only major release, EURUSD is likely to take its direction from the US dollar. The pair is already testing an important resistance area, and a break above 1.1560 could pave the way toward 1.1600-1.1630. If the dollar regains strength instead, a drop below 1.1500 could initially pause near 1.1420 and then stretch to 1.1350-1.1365.
Geopolitics → GoldGold continues to trade sideways for a fifth straight week within a symmetrical triangle and near June’s lows. Reports that President Trump cancelled planned strikes on Iran and resumed talks with Tehran did little to move the metal on Monday, while higher Treasury yields and caution ahead of Friday's jobs report capped upside pressures.
For the bulls, a break above 4,135-4,200 and the 50-day SMA could trigger a rally toward the 4,340 resistance area. Alternatively, if US data surprises to the upside and reinforces September rate-hike expectations, a move below 3,950-4,000 could hand control back to the bears.
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as Germany's Retail Sales missed analyst estimates. USD/CAD gained ground amid falling demand for commodity-related currencies. USD/JPY moved away from session lows as traders reacted to recent interventions.
U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders React To ISM Manufacturing PMI Report
DXY 030826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI report. The report indicated that ISM Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.3 in June to 55.6 in July, compared to analyst forecast of 54. ISM Manufacturing Employment grew from 49.7 to 52.8, compared to analyst consensus of 49.8. Numbers above 50 show expansion.
Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
EUR/USD Pulls Back As Germany’s Retail Sales Miss Estimates
EUR/USD 030826 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing ground as traders react to the disappointing Retail Sales report from Germany. The report showed that Retail Sales decreased by -1.1% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst forecast of -0.5%.
From the technical point of view, EUR/USD made an attempt to settle above the resistance level at 1.1510 – 1.1525 but failed to develop sufficient upside momentum and pulled back towards the 1.1500 level. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below 1.1500, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.1420 – 1.1435 range.
GBP/USD Moves Lower Amid Profit-Taking GBP/USD 030826 4h Chart GBP/USD pulls back as traders take some profits off the table after the strong rally and react to ISM Manufacturing PMI report from the U.S.
A move below the 1.3400 level will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350. On the upside, GBP/USD needs to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. If GBP/USD climbs above 1.3480, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565.
USD/CAD 030826 4h Chart USD/CAD is moving higher as traders focus on the pullback in precious metals markets. Other commodity-related currencies are also losing ground in today’s trading session.
USD/CAD climbed above the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025 and is trying to settle above the 1.4050 level. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will move towards the 50 MA at 1.4070. If USD/CAD manages to settle above the 50 MA, it will head towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Moves Away From Session Lows
USD/JPY 030826 4h Chart USD/JPY attempts to rebound after interventions from Japan and U.S. It is not clear how mcuh U.S. spent to provide support to the yen, but Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the country would not hesitate to get back into the market.
U.S. officials decided to intervene as Japan could be forced to sell U.S. Treasuries to raise money for currency interventions. The yield of 30-year Treasuries is at multi-decade highs, and additional pressure from Japan’s sales could trigger a major sell-off in U.S. bond markets.
If USD/JPY climbs above the 157.00 level, it will move towards the resistance level at 157.50 – 158.00. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 159.50 – 160.00.
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USD/JPY, USD/CAD and USD/CHF Forecasts – Joint Intervention Tests 155 Support in USD/JPYUS Dollar Price Forecast: NFP Week Puts DXY, EUR/USD and GBP/USD in FocusInterest Rate Forecast: BOJ Eyes September Hike as Yen Intervention Pressures USDJPYAbout the Author
Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Gold Talking Points: Gold has tested $4k for five of the past six weeks and sellers have yet to hold a weekly close below the big figure. The past two weeks have shown higher-lows, illustrating a degree of defense at that price. I looked into the matter in greater depth in a video for StoneX TV, linked below.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Gold came into the year with a full head of steam, but 2026 certainly hasn’t gone that way for bulls as the past six months have seen sellers taking a strong swing at the matter.
Of late, however, the bigger item has been slowing volatility as gold price action has compressed, with the $4k level coming in to hold the lows. This was a price that bears shied away from on the initial portion of the pullback in March. And then again in early-June. What ultimately drove gold down for a $4k test as the FOMC rate decision on June 17th but, so far, bulls have come in for a strong defense of that level.
From the weekly chart below, we can see where five of the past six weeks have wicks testing that level. This shows that while price may have dipped below during the week, buyers showed up, thereby exposing underside wicks on the weekly chart.
And for the past two weeks, buyers have shown greater anticipation by jumping in at higher-lows, alluding to the possibility that sellers are giving way to greater buying pressure and bulls are ramping up their appetite on the long side of gold.
Gold Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Turn Potential A slowing sell-off can lead to a bullish reversal, but it’s still too early to say that definitively. As traders, instead, the best that we can do is place a line in the sand and then implement an if-then statement, and if buyers do press up to a fresh higher-high, combined with the higher-lows shown in the above chart, we can get more evidence that a turning of the tides may continue ahead.
The levels that I’m tracking for this are at $4100 and $4200, both of which provided some form of resistance over the past month. If we see buyers make a push above that latter price, then we can move forward with the idea that buyers are showing a greater degree of control over the trend, and thus, may be on the cusp of resuming the broader bullish trend.
Gold Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
The euro’s recovery against the dollar has strengthened, but Bank of America still sees scope for a near-term pullback. The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) slipped to around 1.1504 on Monday after opening near 1.1548, leaving the pair at the bottom of its intraday range.
Image: Today's EUR/USD intraday chart EUR/USD ended July around 1.1530, having recovered from a monthly low near 1.1354.
The pair remains 1.7% lower for 2026, with this year’s trading range extending from 1.1325 to 1.2075.
Image: The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate - historical year-to-date chart for 2026 Bank of America says the July Fed press conference “injected uncertainty around the Fed’s inflation-fighting commitment and reaction function”.
The bank described the meeting as “doved and confused”, with Chair Kevin Warsh suggesting that financial markets had already delivered some of the tightening that might otherwise have required higher rates.
BofA said this was “not reassuring”, adding that the Dollar should respond differently to “a central bank credibly doing the tightening” than one which “outsources the tightening to the market”.
That credibility concern has shifted the near-term risk balance against the Dollar. However, BofA still sees support from resilient US economic conditions, artificial-intelligence investment and geopolitical uncertainty.
The bank also believes the Fed may ultimately need to respond more forcefully.
“Ironically, we think the need to re-establish credibility increases the probability that the Fed will hike in September,” BofA said.
Its economists continue to forecast three 25-basis-point increases over the remaining meetings of 2026.
BofA forecasts EUR/USD at 1.12 in September, 1.15 at year-end and 1.20 by the end of 2027.
The Euro’s technical recovery has improved after the late-July surge, but 1.1500 remains the immediate test.
A sustained hold above it would keep 1.1555 and 1.1600 in view, while a renewed break lower would expose 1.1450 and the 1.1370 area.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Following the strong recovery of the euro against the US dollar last week, slight indecision has reemerged on the EUR/USD chart. This is reflected in early week trading fluctuations, which now show a price decline of around -0.2%, indicating modest short-term strength for the dollar. For now, this shift is paving the way for a neutral scenario following the recent bullish pressure. This pause may be tied to the lingering threat of higher interest rates in the United States and a potential rebound for the greenback after its recent depreciation. If these factors persist, consolidation could become the dominant theme in the coming sessions.
Is the FED Still Relevant? Last week was crucial for the US monetary policy outlook. The Federal Reserve announcement featured comments that remain focused on the central bank's 2.00% inflation target, an objective yet to be achieved and heavily emphasized during the meeting. However, statements from FED Chair Kevin Warsh failed to confirm an overly aggressive stance for the coming months. Markets, anticipating more decisive signals, triggered a pronounced drop in dollar demand during those sessions.
The context now looks slightly different following the central bank announcements. A couple of sessions ago, the core PCE Price Index for June was released. This is the official inflation gauge tracking price changes for consumed goods and services while excluding volatile items like food and energy. The June data showed the index settling around 3.3%. Although slightly below the year's peak of 3.4%, it has yet to show a significant enough decline to establish a clear downward trend in overall inflation. To some extent, this highlights lingering inflationary pressures still embedded in the economy.
Source: TradingEconomics
This data release likely played a key role in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve September decision. A week ago, the probability according to CMEGROUP of a potential rate hike on September 16 to a new benchmark zone of 4.00% in the United States stood at around 55%. Today, following the inflation data, that probability has climbed to nearly 62%. This underscores that the market may still be pricing in a possible rate increase due to persistent inflationary pressures expected to linger in the US economy over the coming months.
Source: CMEGROUP
Taking all this into account, the prospect of the US central bank potentially raising interest rates in September could be helping the US dollar hold its ground in the short term. This is particularly noticeable after last week's loss of momentum, which allowed the euro to steadily regain ground. If the probability matrix for the FED continues to highlight a potential rate hike next month, dollar-denominated investments will likely remain attractive. This is because the US interest rate remains higher than Europe's, making it harder for the euro to resume its recovery easily and reinforcing a more solid phase of consolidation in the EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Long-term trendline holds firm: For several months, average fluctuations in the EUR/USD have been defined by a long-term bearish trendline, which remains the most critical technical structure to watch. Despite the recent price recovery, buying pressure has not been strong enough to break through this line in the short term. Until a more robust bullish momentum emerges, this pattern will remain the primary technical driver for upcoming sessions.
RSI: Currently, the RSI is consistently fluctuating above the 50 level, indicating that bullish momentum has dominated over the last 14 sessions. However, the indicator's curve has started to flatten. Over time, this could signal fading buying momentum, pointing to increased market indecision in the near term.
TRIX: The TRIX also remains below the neutral 0 line, confirming that bearish pressure in the exponential moving averages is still relevant. If it fails to cross the neutral threshold, the broader chart will likely remain weighed down by the bearish bias that has dominated recent months.
Key Levels:
1.16033 (Key Resistance): This previous high acts as the most important bullish barrier above the long-term bearish trendline dominating the chart. A sustained price move and close above this level could trigger a breakout of the current technical structure, opening the door for a new short-term bullish trendline to take shape.
1.14801 (Nearby Barrier): This level corresponds to a significant retracement zone and coincides with the 50-period simple moving average. Failure of the price to consistently move away from this area could highlight ongoing indecision, potentially leading to the formation of a prolonged sideways channel.
1.14300 (Ultimate Support): This level aligns with a retracement zone from previous weeks and stands as the most crucial psychological support. A drop back below this threshold could revive a dormant bearish bias and reinforce the extension of the long-term bearish trendline as the dominant structure.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
USD/CHF edges higher on Monday as softer Swiss inflation data and a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) weigh on the Swiss Franc (CHF). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8109, up 0.38% on the day.
Franc under pressure as muted Swiss inflation keeps SNB on holdStrategists at Brown Brothers Harriman highlight that "Swiss July CPI stays muted," with inflation data underscoring the lack of price pressures in the economy. They note that, "in line with consensus, headline CPI printed at 0.4% y/y vs. 0.5% in June while core CPI remained at 0.3% y/y for a fourth straight month."
Against this backdrop, BBH concludes that the "bottom line: the SNB has plenty of room to keep rates at 0.00% for some time, which is an ongoing drag for CHF," adding that the Franc is currently "the worst performing G10 currency so far this quarter."
On the US side, the Greenback shows signs of stabilization following last week’s sell-off, triggered by coordinated intervention from Washington and Tokyo to counter excessive weakness in the Japanese Yen (JPY). Stronger-than-expected US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data lends some support to the Greenback.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.96, rebounding from an intraday low of 99.42, its weakest level since June 15.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, USD/CHF retests the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 0.8110 after slipping below it last week. The pair is above the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping the broader outlook mildly constructive.
Momentum is mixed, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering near a neutral 52.5 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) still in negative territory, which suggests upside may be steady rather than explosive in the near term.
On the upside, a daily close above the 21-day SMA would bring the psychological 0.8200 level back into focus. A decisive break above this area could open the door to additional gains.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 21-day SMA around 0.8110, followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.8038, ahead of the horizontal support near 0.8000 and the 100-day SMA at 0.7955.
As long as USD/CHF holds above this layered demand zone, the pair would likely continue to trade with a mild bullish bias, with any decisive break below 0.8000 needed to weaken the broader constructive tone and expose deeper retracements.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
SNB FAQs The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is the country’s central bank. As an independent central bank, its mandate is to ensure price stability in the medium and long term. To ensure price stability, the SNB aims to maintain appropriate monetary conditions, which are determined by the interest rate level and exchange rates. For the SNB, price stability means a rise in the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) of less than 2% per year.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) Governing Board decides the appropriate level of its policy rate according to its price stability objective. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame excessive price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Yes. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has regularly intervened in the foreign exchange market in order to avoid the Swiss Franc (CHF) appreciating too much against other currencies. A strong CHF hurts the competitiveness of the country’s powerful export sector. Between 2011 and 2015, the SNB implemented a peg to the Euro to limit the CHF advance against it. The bank intervenes in the market using its hefty foreign exchange reserves, usually by buying foreign currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro. During episodes of high inflation, particularly due to energy, the SNB refrains from intervening markets as a strong CHF makes energy imports cheaper, cushioning the price shock for Swiss households and businesses.
The SNB meets once a quarter – in March, June, September and December – to conduct its monetary policy assessment. Each of these assessments results in a monetary policy decision and the publication of a medium-term inflation forecast.
USDJPY edged higher from new lowest level in almost three months, following three-day sharp fall on coordinated intervention by Japan’s authorities and US central bank, to support weakening yen.
Massive intervention buying lifted yen against US dollar (nearly 5%) and Euro (4.2%), with yen’s weekly gains of 3.9% vs dollar and 3.1% vs Euro.
The authorities signaled that further intervention cannot be ruled out that keeps near-term focus at the downside, with current (still mild) bounce, seen as positioning for fresh push lower for both currency pairs (USDJPY and EURJPY).
The USDJPY surged through daily Ichimoku cloud (spanned between 160.67 and 158.48), broke through 200DMA (157.92) and trendline support (157.10), while EURJPY broke 200DMA support (183.62), to hit the lowest since 17 Nov 2025 (179.36) on Monday.
Technical picture on daily chart turned bearish for both pairs, but stretched indicators after sharp fall suggest that bears may take a breather, though with limited upticks, due to persisting risk for possible further intervention.
USDJPY – broken 200DMA turned to solid resistance which capped today’s action and should ideally limit upticks, guarding next significant barrier at 158.48, provided by the base of thick daily cloud.
Fresh bears eye next pivotal supports at 155.02/154.78 (May 6 low / Fibo 38.2% of 139.88/163.98 rally) break of which to generate stronger reversal signal and support scenario of direction change of 16-month uptrend.
EURJPY- upticks should ideally hold below 182.50 zone (Fibo 38.2% of 187.43/179.36 post-intervention fall) to keep bears intact for firm break through cracked 180 psychological support and acceleration towards 175.28 (Fibo 38.2% of 154.79/187.94) and 172.70 (100WMA) in extension.
Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $57.20 at the time of writing on Monday, down 0.73% on the day, after a strong US manufacturing report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain a restrictive monetary policy.
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 55.6 in July from 53.3 in June, beating market expectations of 54. The release showed that US manufacturing activity accelerated at its fastest pace in more than four years.
The report's underlying components also pointed to a resilient manufacturing sector. The Employment Index climbed to 52.8 from 49.7, signaling a return to payroll growth, while the Prices Paid Index eased slightly to 71.1 from 73 but remained above the market forecast of 70.3, indicating that inflationary pressures remain elevated.
According to Susan Spence, Chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, four of the five PMI sub-indices accelerated compared with June, confirming the strengthening momentum in the manufacturing sector.
The stronger economic data provide the Federal Reserve (Fed) with greater flexibility to tighten monetary policy further in its fight against inflation. Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Silver, limiting the metal's upside despite the recent support provided by easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
This is an NFP week as markets brace for the release of a large influx of job market statistics. The data rollout begins with the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday, continues with the ADP Employment report on Wednesday and Jobless claims on Thursday, and finishes with the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. Traditionally, the NFP release is considered to be the most influential market event, and this time it arrives at a particularly sensitive moment.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) has just delivered a 'hawkish hold', keeping the rates at 3.50%-3.75%, but three policymakers voted for a hike. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, remains sticky at 3.3% year-on-year (y-o-y), and markets are pricing a 68% probability of a rate increase at the September FOMC meeting.
The upcoming NFP report will be decisive for whether the Fed tightens in September. Gold has pulled back sharply from its May highs and is under pressure from surging Treasury yields, while Bitcoin rebounded ~10% in July but remains vulnerable to macro headwinds.
For a trader to reach a mastery level and achieve peak performance, it is important to have a clear view of what is happening in the market. In this article, Elev8 broker will highlight the key themes and factors that traders should monitor ahead of the NFP report and will conclude with the technical outlook for both gold and Bitcoin.
The contextSo far, the U.S. jobs market is actually in a relatively good shape. The economists describe it as being in the 'low hire, low fire' state, which signals neither stagnation nor expansion. However, the most recent data has taken a surprising turn to the downside, complicating the Fed's policy path as it tries to navigate between maximum employment and stable inflation.
This week brings a wealth of data that will offer traders a clearer picture of the job market and help them better assess the likelihood of a September rate hike.
Day
Release
Period
Previous
Consensus forecast
Tuesday (4 August)
JOLTS job openings
June
7.594 mln.
7.451
Wednesday (5 August)
ADP employment
June
+98,000
+70,000
Thursday (6 August)
Initial jobless claims
week (1 August)
+197,000
+201,000
Thursday (6 August)
Continuing claims
week (25 July)
1.782 mln.
N/A
Friday (7 August)
Nonfarm payrolls
July
+57,000
+83,000
Friday (7 August)
Unemployment rate
July
4.2%
4.3%
Friday (7 August)
Average hourly Earnings (m-o-m)
July
0.3%
0.3%
Friday (7 August)
Average hourly Earnings (y-o-y)
July
3.5%
3.5%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, FXStreet Calendar
JOLTS. The previous reading of 7,594k showed a labour market with still-elevated openings but trending lower. This release (for June data) will be watched closely alongside the broader employment picture. ADP employment. The prior reading of +98k was notably stronger than the official NFP print of +57k for the same month. Markets will look for directional confirmation ahead of Friday's payrolls report. Jobless claims. Initial claims were at a remarkably low 197k the prior week, suggesting the 'low fire' element of the labour market remains intact. Nonfarm payrolls. June nonfarm payrolls came in at just +57,000 with an unemployment rate of 4.2%, while the Q2 Employment Cost Index rose 0.9% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q), with y-o-y wage growth of 3.2%, the slowest since Q2 2021. This week, Reuters surveys place the consensus at approximately 83,000, indicating an increase in hiring from June's weak +57k print. However, the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.3%.The July 28–29 FOMC meeting produced a rare 9–3 split, with Dallas Fed President Logan, Cleveland's Hammack, and Minneapolis's Kashkari all dissenting in favour of a rate hike. All three policymakers publicly called for further tightening . New Fed chair Kevin Warsh has scaled back forward guidance, meaning each economic data release, particularly payrolls, will carry greater weight. As Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, noted: 'With Kevin Warsh in place, markets are likely to get less official clarity on future rate decisions. Therefore, traders should expect more volatility around key economic releases. But even if NFP comes out in line with the market consensus, it will almost guarantee a rate increase in September, so I am approaching both gold and Bitcoin with a bearish bias'.
Key themesApart from the NFP, traders also need to consider the general macroeconomic environment when contemplating the Fed's next move. Given the current complexity of the economic backdrop, we have compiled key underlying themes to monitor alongside the jobs data.
Theme
Why it matters
Fed credibility gap
Three dissenters + Warsh's vague guidance have sent 30-year yields to 19-year highs. The NFP result will test whether the hawkish part of the FOMC gains further ground.
Oil and inflation
Brent crude prices have surged by 18% since the Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions re-emerged in early July. Energy-driven inflation complicates the Fed's stance
U.S.–Japan yen intervention
Japan might have spent around $59 billion defending the yen. The U.S. Treasury also intervened, a rare event that reflects broader dollar dynamics affecting equities, bonds and commodities .
Treasury market stress
The MOVE index (bond volatility) is rising. Alberto Musalem, the president and CEO of the St. Louis Fed, warned that the Treasury selloff signals the need for the Fed to earn its inflation-fighting credibility with rate increases.
Leading indicators
ISM Manufacturing PMI (due on Monday), JOLTS (Tuesday), ADP Employment (Wednesday), and Initial jobless claims (Thursday) will all set the tone ahead of Friday's NFP.
Source: Elev8 broker
GoldGold (XAUUSD) closed at approximately $4,107 per ounce (oz) on 31 July, down 1.29% on the day and some 26% below its all-time high of $5,627 reached on 29 January 2026. Gold has been under pressure from rising real yields: the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.745% (the highest since January 2025) while the 30-year reached 5.281% (the highest since mid-2007). Technically, XAUUSD is in a bearish trend even as it has been trading mostly sideways for the past month or so. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, notes: 'Elevated oil prices are pushing up inflation expectations, so a weak NFP is unlikely to trigger a sustained rally in XAUUSD '.
Hot NFP (well above 90k) would cement September rate-hike expectations, likely pushing Treasury yields higher and gold lower.Soft NFP (well below 80k) could ease rate-hike pricing, potentially relieving pressure on gold.Key levels to watch are 4,190–4,220 area on the upside and 4,080–4,000 on the downside. In case of a bullish reaction to the NFP report, a failure to close above 4,200 would indicate that bears still dominate the market. Likewise, in case of a bearish reaction to the NFP report, a failure to close below 4,000 may be interpreted as an 'exhaustion selloff', potentially leading to a strong recovery.
BitcoinBitcoin's strong correlation with risk appetite and inverse correlation with real yields make it acutely sensitive to the rate hike path. Consequently, traders should expect BTCUSD volatility to increase around each jobs market report that comes out this week, including, of course, the NFP release.
According to Coinbase, Bitcoin closed at $62,826 per coin last Friday, down 2.93% on the day and down some 50% from its all-time high of $126,296, reached in October 2025. Kar Yong Ang, a financial market expert at Elev8 broker, notes: 'Inflation is Bitcoin's single most potent enemy. It is very hard to be bullish on bitcoin when global monetary policy is turning hawkish. A very weak if not depressing NFP is needed to invalidate the underlying bearish trend in cryptocurrencies'.
Hot NFP (well above 90k) would weigh on Bitcoin as rate-hike expectations firm up. Outflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) could accelerate, potentially pushing BTCUSD to a new year-to-date low. Soft NFP (well below 80K) could support risk appetite and crypto prices, particularly if rate hike expectations moderate. Bitcoin's July recovery would find firmer footing, and BTCUSD may finally escape its month-long range of 59,900–67,100.Key levels to watch are 66,600–67,300 area on the upside and 60,000–57,800 on the downside. In case of a bullish reaction to the NFP report, BTCUSD may jump above 65,400, but bears will continue to dominate the market in the mid term as long as the price remains below the previous swing low, near 67,000. In case of a bearish reaction to the NFP report, BTCUSD is likely to test the 60,000 level again, but only a break below 58,400 will invalidate the current consolidation pattern, potentially opening the way towards 56,500.
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Key Support Floors and Historical Resistance Levels The $60 level, at least right now, seems to be offering a bit of resistance, and we have the 50-day EMA at $63.45 offering a bit of a barrier. If we break down from here, the $55 level has offered support as of late, and a breakdown below that level would be a psychologically negative turn of events.
Silver could test the $50 level, which is an area that previously had been major resistance going all the way back to the late 70s when the Hunt Brothers tried to corner the market, the physical market. We recently broke through there, so a retest of that wouldn’t be the strangest thing to see. So, I am watching that as well.
Gold moves sideways within a defined consolidation box just above the major $4,000 support level. The gold market initially gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday but has since pulled back to show signs of weakness. With that being the case, the market is still in a larger consolidation area that extends from $4,200 on the top down to about $3,900 on the bottom, with a lot of attention being paid to the obvious and large, round, psychologically significant figure of $4,000.
Gold is going to continue to be somewhat noisy, from what we can see, based on all of the moving factors out there, including the war in the Middle East, which, of course, at this point in time, is still a series of statements being made through the media that, quite frankly, you can’t trust. So, with that being the case, gold is going to have a hard time proving itself to be what I would call convincing. This is a market that will continue to see a lot of noise attached to it, via external factors that can greatly influence risk appetite.
The US Dollar was active early on Monday, as the week started with a bang.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USDJPY experiences a sharp sell-off, breaking below 160.00 and retesting its 200-day EMA support. The US Dollar has plunged against the Japanese Yen to kick off the trading week as it has been acknowledged that the United States and Japan both have intervened in the currency markets to save the Yen. The Japanese Yen is a funding currency for a lot of borrowing around the world, and the concern would be that this thing could spiral out of control and cause chaos. That being said, we’ve seen interventions previously.
This is the first time that the Americans have acknowledged being involved in it, and it is worth noting that the market stopped right at the 155 Yen level. So, this was a big support level that has held so far. At this point, the question is whether or not the market can bounce. We’ll have to wait and see, but it already has done it a couple of times by fighting back against the intervention.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USDCAD tests dynamic support at the 50 EMA near the 1.4000 psychological level following a retracement. The US Dollar has rallied against the Canadian Dollar to pierce the 50-day EMA early on Monday and does look like it continues to see a lot of support in the 1.40 level. The 1.40 level is a round figure that has been both support and resistance, and it’s also right around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. It looks like it is stable here from the recent price action.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis USDCHF pulls back after testing resistance at 0.8150, consolidating near the 50-day EMA. The US Dollar has rallied a bit against the Swiss Franc during the session as well, and it is looking at the 50-day EMA as potential support. Overall, this is a market that looks like it’s still bullish despite the fact that we did have a couple of bad days. We are in a bit of a channel, and the 0.8150 level seems to be an area that has attracted a lot of attention as of late.
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Why confirmed US-Japan intervention pushed Yen strength into the crosses instead of breaking USD/JPY below 155 What’s happening: Japan and the US jointly confirmed last week’s coordinated Yen-buying intervention, the first since 2011, and did so unusually fast, extending the Yen’s rally into Monday’s session. Yet USD/JPY stalled just above the key 155 support level as buyers emerged, and Yen strength instead squeezed into the crosses, hitting AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY hardest. Why it matters: The pattern suggests traders don’t yet believe intervention was designed to force USD/JPY meaningfully below 155, just to prevent a rapid return above 160. Whether that adjustment mechanism, squeezing carry trades in the crosses, continues, or USD/JPY eventually breaks 155 outright, is one of the more important themes to watch this week.
Also today:
Oil gapped lower again to as low as $81.55 as the US cancelled planned strikes and Trump signaled talks with Iran, though Tehran says no direct negotiations are planned yet. A week of top-tier US data begins today with ISM Manufacturing, building toward Friday’s non-farm payrolls, which will shape the Fed’s flexibility heading into next week’s CPI report rather than settle September policy on its own. Confirmed Intervention Marks a Break From Japan’s Usual Playbook The week’s opening session was dominated by an unusually explicit display of currency cooperation between Washington and Tokyo. Both governments confirmed they had jointly intervened to support the Yen last week, marking the first coordinated operation since 2011. More striking than the intervention itself was the speed of the confirmation. Rather than adhering to Japan’s long-standing strategy of refusing to comment on intervention, officials on both sides moved quickly to acknowledge the operation, reinforcing the message that they stand ready to act again if necessary. The shift suggests policymakers are placing greater value on intervention credibility than on strategic ambiguity.
USD/JPY Stalls at 155 as Yen Strength Squeezes Into the Crosses That message initially extended last week’s Yen rally, pushing USD/JPY lower in early trading. Yet the decline stalled just ahead of the key 155 support area, where buyers emerged before the pair could test the level decisively. The price action is notable because it suggests traders remain reluctant to challenge what has become an important technical level. For now, the market still appears to believe the objective of last week’s intervention was to prevent another rapid return above 160 rather than engineer a sustained move below 155.
Instead of forcing USD/JPY through support, demand for the Japanese currency found another outlet. Yen strength was effectively squeezed into the crosses, with high-yielding currencies bearing the brunt of the adjustment. AUD/JPY led losses, followed by NZD/JPY, while GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY also declined sharply. The pattern points to a broader reduction in Yen-funded carry trades rather than outright Dollar weakness. Whether this remains the preferred adjustment mechanism, or whether USD/JPY eventually breaks below 155, will be one of the more interesting themes to watch in the days ahead.
Crosses Under Pressure AUD/JPY: led losses among Yen crosses NZD/JPY: second-sharpest decline GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY, CHF/JPY: also declined sharply
Oil Gaps Lower Again as Diplomatic Signals Conflict Oil markets also began the week with another sharp gap lower. Brent crude, which closed above $90 last week, briefly fell to as low as $81.55 before stabilizing around the $83 area. As in recent weeks, the move reflected hopes of easing tensions in the Middle East after the US cancelled planned military strikes over the weekend. President Donald Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin on Monday, again raising expectations of a diplomatic breakthrough.
Tehran, however, continued to offer a far more cautious assessment. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei said there were no immediate plans for direct negotiations with Washington, reiterating that discussions remain limited to Omani mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. The conflicting narratives have become a familiar feature of this crisis. Markets appear reluctant to react aggressively to political statements alone, preferring to wait for tangible evidence of changes in shipping conditions or energy flows before reassessing geopolitical risk.
A Week Packed With Top-Tier US Data Attention now shifts firmly to a week packed with top-tier US economic data. ISM Manufacturing kicks things off today, followed by ISM Services, ADP employment and Friday’s non-farm payrolls. Fed funds futures continue to price a little over a 60% probability of a September rate hike, indicating markets still lean toward further tightening but without strong conviction.
That makes this week’s data particularly important, not because they are likely to determine September policy on their own, but because they will shape how much flexibility the Federal Reserve has heading into next week’s CPI report. A strong run of data would reinforce confidence in the economy and leave policymakers well positioned to tighten again should inflation remain sticky. Conversely, softer readings would raise the bar for another hike.
This Week’s US Data Calendar Today: ISM Manufacturing This week: ISM Services, ADP employment Friday: Non-farm payrolls Fed funds futures: a little over 60% probability of a September hike Currency Performance Today For the day so far, Yen is currently the strongest, followed by Euro, and then Dollar. Aussie is the worst, followed by Kiwi, and the Swiss Franc. Sterling and Loonie are positioning in the middle.
Related Coverage Yen & Precious Metals Deep Dives Read the deeper dive into why Japan and the US broke decades of strategic ambiguity to confirm intervention this fast, and what holding above 155 would signal: Why Did Japan and the US Confirm Intervention So Fast? Can USD/JPY Hold 155?. See why Gold has stopped reacting to oil, yields and the Dollar, and what could finally break its trading range: Why Gold Ignores Oil, Yields and Dollar, and What Could Finally Break the Range. Global Manufacturing PMI Roundup Read why the UK’s softer PMI headline masks the fastest factory output growth in almost two years: UK PMI Manufacturing at Four-Month Low, but Faster Output Growth Points to Resilient Recovery. See why Eurozone factory output hit a 52-month high, and why the recovery still isn’t being driven by fresh demand: Eurozone PMI Manufacturing at Three-Month High, but Recovery Still Lacks Fresh Demand. Read how AI and semiconductor demand are offsetting Middle East-related cost pressures in Japan’s factory sector: Japan PMI Manufacturing Finalized at 54.5, AI Demand Offsets Middle East Headwinds. See why Australia’s manufacturing rebound to a six-month high still comes with a fragility warning: Australia Manufacturing PMI Finalizes at Six-Month High, Yet Inflation and Supply Risks Limit Confidence. Read the three encouraging trends inside China’s slower manufacturing expansion: China’s Manufacturing Expansion Slowed, but Three Trends Offer Encouragement. Inflation Data See why Swiss inflation’s slip to 0.4% is concentrated in imported goods, not domestic price pressures: Swiss CPI Slips to 0.4% in July on Lower Fuel and Airfare Costs. Frequently Asked Questions Q: Why did USD/JPY stall at 155 instead of continuing lower after confirmed intervention? A: Buyers emerged just ahead of the 155 support area before the pair could test it decisively, suggesting traders remain reluctant to challenge what has become an important technical level. The market still appears to believe last week’s intervention was aimed at preventing a rapid return above 160, not at engineering a sustained move below 155.
Q: Why is Yen strength showing up in crosses like AUD/JPY instead of pushing USD/JPY lower? A: Instead of forcing USD/JPY through support, demand for the Japanese currency found another outlet in the crosses. AUD/JPY led losses, followed by NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY, a pattern that points to a broader reduction in Yen-funded carry trades rather than outright Dollar weakness.
Q: Why did Brent gap lower again despite Iran signaling no immediate direct talks with the US? A: The gap reflected hopes of easing tensions after the US cancelled planned military strikes over the weekend and President Trump said negotiations with Iran would begin Monday. Iran, however, offered a more cautious assessment, with its Foreign Ministry saying discussions remain limited to Omani mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. Markets have grown reluctant to react aggressively to political statements alone, preferring tangible evidence of changes in shipping conditions or energy flows.
Key Takeaways Confirmed intervention marks a real shift in strategy: Japan and the US jointly confirmed last week’s coordinated Yen-buying operation, the first since 2011, and did so far faster than Japan’s usual practice of strategic ambiguity. USD/JPY is defending 155, not breaking it: The pair stalled just ahead of the support zone as buyers emerged, suggesting markets see intervention’s goal as capping a return above 160, not forcing a sustained move below 155. Yen strength got squeezed into the crosses instead: AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY, CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY all fell sharply, pointing to a broader unwind of Yen-funded carry trades rather than Dollar weakness. Oil’s gap lower reflects hope, not confirmation: Brent fell as low as $81.55 on prospects of US-Iran talks, but Iran’s Foreign Ministry says no direct negotiations are planned yet, just Omani mediation, keeping the conflicting-narrative pattern intact. This week’s US data matters more for Fed flexibility than for a September verdict: ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, ADP and Friday’s payrolls will shape how much room the Fed has heading into next week’s CPI report, with Fed funds futures currently pricing just over 60% odds of a September hike. What to Watch Next Whether USD/JPY eventually breaks below 155 or continues bleeding out through the Yen crosses is one of the week’s key technical questions. On the data side, today’s ISM Manufacturing kicks off a run of releases culminating in Friday’s non-farm payrolls, all of which will help determine how much flexibility the Fed has heading into next week’s CPI report.
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The Euro (EUR) ticks higher against the British Pound (GBP) on Monday, but remains capped below the bottom of an ascending channel at the 0.8575 area following Thursday and Friday's declines.
July’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) figures have been revised lower in the UK and the Eurozone, although the latter shows an improvement from June, while in the UK, the sector’s activity slowed down compared to the previous month.
Beyond that, the uncertainty about the BoE’s monetary policy remains a significant hurdle for GBP recovery. Analysts at TD Securities observe that last week’s decision suggests that the majority of the committee “is still very comfortable keeping rates on hold, given the lack of clear second-round effects observed in inflation data.” In this context, “we think the knee-jerk GBP rally should be faded vs the EUR and USD. Further paring back of September BoE rate hike pricing could weigh on GBP,” say the analysts.
Technical Analysis: Bulls are attempting to break the reverse trendline
EUR/GBP trades at 0.8562, slipping just under the rising channel floor around 0.8570, which keeps the cross capped in the near term. Momentum indicators are mixed, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) around 53 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) fractionally negative, hinting at fading upside traction.
Failure to return above 0.8570 might encourage bears to retest the 0.8545 area, which capped bears on Friday and on July 28, and, below here, the July 23 low, at 0.8530. On the topside, a confirmation above 0.8570 would expose the July 30 high, at 0.8585. Further up, the late June lows, just above 0.8600, emerge as the next resistance area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.07%-0.50%0.05%0.20%-0.00%0.05%EUR0.08%0.14%-0.45%0.12%0.26%0.11%0.09%GBP-0.07%-0.14%-0.57%-0.05%0.12%-0.02%-0.03%JPY0.50%0.45%0.57%0.49%0.63%0.50%0.45%CAD-0.05%-0.12%0.05%-0.49%0.14%0.01%-0.04%AUD-0.20%-0.26%-0.12%-0.63%-0.14%-0.16%-0.14%NZD0.00%-0.11%0.02%-0.50%-0.01%0.16%0.00%CHF-0.05%-0.09%0.03%-0.45%0.04%0.14%-0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
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After a steep rally this year, the US Dollar Index (DXY) and USD/JPY quickly dropped on profit-taking and yen intervention, taking the market spotlight amid persistent geopolitical risks and Fed rate hike worries.
The steep sell-offs from yearly highs— nearly 200 points for the DXY and 900 points for USD/JPY—aligned with the up trending support levels defining the bullish bias throughout the year for both charts, marking a critical point between:
A bullish continuation in the dollar amid persistent geopolitical risks. US-Iran negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (markets need a lasting agreement). Fed rate hike expectations for a 25 bps rate hike in September by 25 bps. US economic data, with NFP due on Friday. Further yen intervention risks, noting that the market may have fully priced in such rhetoric, with rate differentials between the Fed and the BOJ remaining a key barrier to sustainable yen strength unless the BOJ adopts a rate-hiking path. Key levels stand to define whether the dollar's time has come to shift toward a long-term bearish bias or whether its multi-year bull run remains intact.
US Dollar (DXY) Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The recent pullback in the DXY occurred just below the critical 101.80–102.00 resistance zone, which remains the key area to confirm another bullish breakout.
Despite the decline, price action continues to respect:
The ascending trendline connecting the higher lows established throughout 2026, reinforcing the broader bullish structure. The 99.30 mark, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2026 advance. Oversold daily momentum conditions last seen in January 2026. As long as the index remains above the 99.30–100.30 support zone, the 2026 bullish outlook remains intact. A breakdown below 99.30 could shift the narrative, increasing bearish pressure toward the 98.60–98.00 region, which marks the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
The daily chart therefore continues to suggest that the recent weakness represents a correction within the prevailing uptrend rather than the beginning of a broader reversal, similar to the monthly chart's outlook.
US Dollar (DXY) Forecast: Monthly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The monthly chart continues to reinforce the US Dollar Index's broader bullish structure through several important technical developments:
An ascending channel dating back to 2008 continues to support the Dollar Index's long-term uptrend. Its lower boundary, near the 95–97 zone, remains the next major support area should the DXY close below 99.30, invalidating the 2026 bullish structure. Such a move could either trigger another long-term rebound or mark the beginning of a broader structural drawdown. The DXY is currently in pullback mode after testing a major technical confluence that includes: The neckline of a potential double-bottom pattern, positioned between the long-term 2008 ascending channel and the 2022–2026 descending channel. The midpoint of the 2022–2026 descending channel. A multi-year support and resistance zone that has repeatedly defined price action since 2023. A monthly close above 102.00 would strengthen the bullish outlook, exposing the next resistance levels at 102.80, 104.50, and ultimately 107.00, which coincides with the upper boundary of the descending channel in place since 2022.
Such a move would likely coincide with renewed geopolitical tensions, stronger inflationary pressures, or a more hawkish Federal Reserve. It would also increase downside pressure across major currencies and precious metals, potentially pushing them toward fresh yearly lows before a longer-term reversal emerges.
As long as Middle East tensions persist, crude oil prices remain supported above the $70–80 per barrel region, and dollar pairs continue to hold above their year-long bullish structures, upside risks for the dollar are likely to remain elevated.
USDJPY Forecast: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The USD/JPY sell-off from the 164 confluence zone, a resistance area aligned with the midpoint of the April 2025–July 2026 channel and the 2022–2026 channel, last found support near the 155 mark.
Current support aligns with:
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025–July 2026 advance. Bearish weekly momentum consistent with 2025 levels. Oversold daily momentum last seen in 2024. A possible breakdown below the 2025–2026 channel. Should this drawdown stabilize above the 155 mark, bullish momentum may return to the 2025–2026 channel and extend the move toward 157.50, 161.00, 161.80, and eventually 164.00. These previous support levels may turn into resistance during another major test of a zone last seen in the 1980s, where a close above 164 would open the path toward the channel's upper boundary near 170, following that significant momentum recharge.
If not, a close below 155 exposes the next key support levels near 152 and 149, a critical area aligning with the lower boundary of the 2022–2026 channel and defining the barrier between a long-term bullish or bearish bias for the dollar, not just against the yen but across broader markets.
Expectations continue to favor a bullish bias unless a lasting framework for the governance of Middle East straits is established, Treasury yields decline, and the Fed rate hike narrative fades.
EUR/USD begins the week around 1.1540. Following a volatile week, market attention has shifted from the Federal Reserve meeting to US economic data. Investors will assess whether incoming figures reinforce the case for a September rate hike or, conversely, point to a cooling of the US economy.
Monday brings business activity indices from China and the US. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at approximately 53.0, down from 53.3 previously. Holding firmly above 50 would support the dollar, while a more pronounced slowdown would raise doubts about economic resilience and provide support for EUR/USD. On Tuesday, attention turns to JOLTS job openings, with forecasts pointing to a decline to 7.3 million from 7.594 million.
Wednesday’s highlight is the ISM Services PMI, expected to rise to 55 from 54. A strong reading would support the dollar, as services remain a key component of the US economy and an important source of inflationary pressure. Thursday’s calendar is relatively quiet, leaving the pair to consolidate ahead of Friday’s key releases.
On Friday, Germany will release foreign trade data, with the surplus expected to narrow to €11.2 billion from €19.1 billion. The main event, however, will be the US labour market report. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 79,000, up from 57,000, while unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. A stronger reading would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike and weigh on EUR/USD, while weak job growth or rising unemployment would support the euro.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1533 level, currently extending between 1.1524 and 1.1538. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1556, followed by a decline to 1.1480. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing downwards, reflecting weakening upward momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1556 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower towards 1.1480 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1518, and then a continuation of the downward move to 1.1400, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1330. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion EUR/USD begins a data-heavy week with markets focused on US economic indicators following the Fed’s policy decision. The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s labour market report will be crucial in shaping expectations for a potential September rate hike. A strong set of data would support the dollar, while weaker readings could support the euro. Technically, the pair appears to be consolidating around 1.1533, with a potential corrective move towards 1.1556 before resuming its broader bearish trajectory towards 1.1400 and possibly 1.1330. The week’s data releases will be the key catalysts for direction.
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Gold has had a rough year. After hitting an all-time high near $5,602 in January, the metal has since dropped roughly 27% from that peak, weighed down by rising Treasury yields, a firmer dollar, and cooling demand for safe-haven assets.
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate recovered to 1.8895 at Friday’s close, reversing much of its early-week decline as Sterling strengthened following the Bank of England decision.
Canadian trade and employment figures will provide the main tests for the GBP/CAD this week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.890452 (+0.05%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.618402 (+0.16%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.40288 (+0.10%)
WEEKLY RECAP:
GBP/CAD slipped below 1.8750 early last week before rallying through the final three sessions.
Pound Sterling drew support after the Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three policymakers voting for an immediate increase.
Governor Andrew Bailey played down the urgency of another move, and markets reduced their expectations for a September hike. Even so, UK yield spreads remain supportive enough to limit Sterling selling.
The Canadian Dollar also finished July on a firmer footing.
Canadian GDP rose 0.3% in May, beating forecasts, while April’s expansion was revised up to 0.6%. An initial estimate placed second-quarter annualised growth at 3.4%, comfortably above the Bank of Canada’s 2.5% forecast.
The stronger figures reinforced expectations that the BoC will leave rates unchanged over the coming months.
Scotiabank cautioned that the US-Canada yield gap remains “a formidable restraint on the CAD”, although recent price action suggests some momentum is shifting in the Loonie’s favour.
ING remains more guarded, arguing that the Canadian Dollar’s recovery should be slow because its carry appeal is limited and USMCA uncertainty remains a potential drag.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Canadian Jobs Report Takes Centre Stage For Pound Sterling, Monday’s final manufacturing PMI is followed by Wednesday’s services PMI and Thursday’s construction survey.
Another weak construction reading would reinforce the BoE’s cautious assessment of UK growth.
Canadian markets are closed for Monday’s Civic Holiday.
Tuesday brings Canada’s trade balance, forecast to narrow from C$4.2 billion to C$3.0 billion, followed by the manufacturing PMI.
Friday’s labour report is the main event. Employment is forecast to rise by 15,000, while unemployment is expected to remain at 6.5%.
Stronger hiring could support the Canadian Dollar and pull GBP/CAD towards 1.8750. A weak report, particularly alongside softer oil prices, could lift the pair through 1.90 and towards 1.9050.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, although buyers lack conviction as markets weigh conflicting US-Iran headlines and look ahead to US employment data for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy outlook.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,050, up 0.20% on the day, after reaching an intraday high of $4,084.
US President Donald Trump said over the weekend that he had called off a planned strike on Iran, with negotiations expected to begin on Monday. The announcement lifted hopes of a peace deal and sent Oil prices sharply lower, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) down more than 7% at the time of writing.
The pullback in Oil prices eases immediate inflation concerns and pulls US Treasury yields lower, offering support to Gold. However, supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz keep Oil prices above pre-war levels.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei also said Tehran is not currently holding talks with Washington, keeping traders sceptical about the chances of a deal and the full reopening of the Strait.
As a result, broader inflation concerns remain alive, and traders still see a high likelihood of the Fed raising interest rates this year. New York Fed President John Williams said on Monday that “rate policy is still well positioned to reach 2% inflation,” adding that “if inflation is not on track to 2%, the Fed will intervene to restore price stability.”
The CME FedWatch Tool shows that traders see a 65% chance of a rate hike in September. These hawkish bets continue to cap Gold’s upside despite broad weakness in the US Dollar (USD), driven by intervention from Japanese authorities to support the Yen.
On the US economic calendar, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is due later on Monday, followed by the JOLTS Job Openings report on Tuesday, ADP Employment Change on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday.
Technical analysis: Neutral RSI points to consolidation above $4,000
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a capped tone as it trades below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and well under the 50-day and 100-day SMAs.
This configuration suggests the broader trend is still under pressure, even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 has recovered toward neutral and the Average Directional Index (ADX) at 27 hints at easing trend strength after the recent decline.
On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,066, followed by a more significant barrier at the 50-day SMA around $4,175, with the 100-day SMA at $4,416 reinforcing the broader bearish cap.
On the downside, initial support aligns with the horizontal level at $4,000, ahead of a deeper structural floor at $3,850, and a daily close below $4,000 would likely reopen the path toward the lower band of this support zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Monday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.38 per troy ounce, up 1.37% from the $57.59 it cost on Friday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.88% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.56 on Monday, down from 70.19 on Friday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Deutsche Bank Research analysts Michael Hsueh and Bryant Xu argue that Gold has been in an explosive price phase since August 2024, but recent moves suggest a muted correction. They highlight downside signals from long-term Gold-to-commodity ratios, yet note regression evidence of limited drawdowns and a fair value model pointing near USD 4,700/oz by year-end, slightly above their USD 4,600/oz Q4 2026 forecast.
Explosive dynamics and fair value"A statistical measure indicates that the current episode of explosive gold price behaviour began from August 2024 and is ongoing. This provides a useful frame of reference for today’s gold market. The current episode is only one of five appearing in data from 1975 (after filtering out isolated 1-month readings as noise, and aggregating temporally linked observations)."
"First, we adjust gold-to-commodity relative price ratios for long term growth rates. Adjusted ratios indexed to a 1986 reference point imply downside for gold to USD 2,600/oz."
"Second, regressing gold prices on the BSADF test statistic indicates that both gold’s upward extension and downward correction are muted in this episode. Gold may have bottomed in its correction around USD 3,900/oz instead of extending toward the regression-implied USD 3,700/oz."
"Third, gold has closed the gap to fair value. Rolling back our model adjustments for excess official demand and real rate convexity, we would still see gold fair value as likely to register around USD 4,700/oz by year-end, above our USD 4,600/oz forecast for Q4’26. We maintain our forecast on this basis."
"Altogether, we think it is appropriate to maintain our forecasts from the Commodities Outlook, discounting the substantial downside implied by commodity ratios and overweighting the fair value model which aligns with gold’s demonstrated sensitivities to financial market variables and DB research cross-asset views."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD begins the week around 1.1540. Following a volatile week, market attention has shifted from the Federal Reserve meeting to US economic data. Investors will assess whether incoming figures reinforce the case for a September rate hike or, conversely, point to a cooling of the US economy.
Monday brings business activity indices from China and the US. The US ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected at approximately 53.0, down from 53.3 previously. Holding firmly above 50 would support the dollar, while a more pronounced slowdown would raise doubts about economic resilience and provide support for EUR/USD. On Tuesday, attention turns to JOLTS job openings, with forecasts pointing to a decline to 7.3 million from 7.594 million.
Wednesday’s highlight is the ISM Services PMI, expected to rise to 55 from 54. A strong reading would support the dollar, as services remain a key component of the US economy and an important source of inflationary pressure. Thursday’s calendar is relatively quiet, leaving the pair to consolidate ahead of Friday’s key releases.
On Friday, Germany will release foreign trade data, with the surplus expected to narrow to €11.2 billion from €19.1 billion. The main event, however, will be the US labour market report. Non-farm payrolls are forecast to rise by 79,000, up from 57,000, while unemployment is expected to hold steady at 4.2%. A stronger reading would reinforce expectations of a Fed rate hike and weigh on EUR/USD, while weak job growth or rising unemployment would support the euro.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1533 level, currently extending between 1.1524 and 1.1538. This range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1556, followed by a decline to 1.1480. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero but pointing downwards, reflecting weakening upward momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1556 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower towards 1.1480 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1518, and then a continuation of the downward move to 1.1400, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1330. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionEUR/USD begins a data-heavy week with markets focused on US economic indicators following the Fed’s policy decision. The ISM manufacturing and services PMIs, JOLTS job openings, and Friday’s labour market report will be crucial in shaping expectations for a potential September rate hike. A strong set of data would support the dollar, while weaker readings could support the euro. Technically, the pair appears to be consolidating around 1.1533, with a potential corrective move towards 1.1556 before resuming its broader bearish trajectory towards 1.1400 and possibly 1.1330. The week’s data releases will be the key catalysts for direction.
Silver price (XAG/USD) opens strongly due to a sharp decline in oil prices, but struggles to extend gains beyond $58.68 during the day. At press time, the Silver price is up 1% to near $58.20.
The white metal has started the week on a firm footing as lower oil prices due to the announcement of a ceasefire 2.0 between the United States (US) and Iran have anchored global inflation expectations.
Over the weekend, US President Donald Trump announced, through a post on Truth Social, that planned attacks on Iran have been suspended as Tehran has agreed to the nuclear deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
The Silver price has underperformed significantly in the past few months as oil prices fuelled global inflation projections, a scenario that forces central banks to tighten monetary conditions. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
It is highly likely that the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) will restrict Silver’s upside. Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect two further 25bps increases this year. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates next month are 64.5%.
Silver technical analysis
Bias: XAG/USD trades higher at around $58.20, but is keeping a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $58.79.
Momentum: The price's failure to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46 stays in neutral territory on the daily chart, hinting at modest downside pressure rather than a decisive trend move.
Resistance: On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $58.79, and a sustained break above this barrier would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way for $60.00.
Support: Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The USD/JPY exchange rate has dropped to the crucial support level of 155.20, its lowest level since May 6, as the Japanese yen continues to outperform most major currencies this year. The pair has retreated by more than 4% from its year-to-date high, highlighting the dollar's recent weakness.
This article explores why the Trump administration moved to support the greenback and what it means for the pair.
The US intervened in the currency market by converting its huge euro holdings into the currency. According to the FT, the transaction was implemented by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York through Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs.
This intervention came a day after the Bank of Japan also carried out a major intervention worth about 8.45 trillion yen or $52.8 billion.
One reason why the Trump administration decided to intervene is because of the US bond market and the fact that Japan is the biggest holder. Japan holds over $1.14 trillion of US public debt, a figure that has been in a downward trend after peaking at $1.24 trillion in February.
Data shows that US bond yields have been rising in the past few months. The 30-year yield jumped to a 19-year high of 5.28% last year. Also, the ten-year yield jumped to 4.74%.
Trump’s fear is that Japan will continue dumping US treasuries to boost the yen, which, will in theory, will push bond yields higher. This is important because the US public debt continues rising and is approaching the $40 trillion mark. US deficits are also rising and is expected to hit $2 trillion mark.
Therefore, by intervening, the Trump administration hopes that Japan will not dump its US treasuries as China has done. China holds $659 billion worth of US bonds, down from over $1.3 trillion in 2013.
President Trump has always been focused on trade deficits, which explains his tariff strategy. The most recent data showed that Japan’s trade surplus with the US jumped to over $47 billion. This number is driven by vehicles and key machinery.
One reason for the rising surplus is the weaker yen, which helps to offset the impact of Trump’s tariffs. As such, by focusing on the stronger yen, Trump hopes that it will help to boost US exports.
Trump has also intervened because, as we saw with Argentina, he has a personal relationship with Sanae Takaichi. He met her at the White House in May, and has spoken highly of her. As such, intervention is a way of helping her bring inflation downwards.
Still, the impact of these interventions will likely be short-lived because of the interest rate differentials between the US and Japan. The BoJ and the Fed left interest rates unchanged last week, and analysts now predict the Fed will hike this year. Unless the the BoJ hikes, chances are that the yen will remain under pressure.
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY pair has plunged from last week’s high of 163.97 to a low of 155.20, its lowest level since May 6. It has dropped below the ascending trendline that connects the lowest swings since February this year.
The pair is forming a large doji pattern, a common bullish reversal sign in technical analysis. Therefore, as we saw in April following the BoJ intervention, there is a possibility that the pair will rebound, potentially to 160.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate ended Friday near 1.9189 after a volatile final week of July left the pair little changed for the month.
UK business surveys and Australian spending and trade figures will shape direction in the days ahead.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.915246 (-0.19%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.347555 (-0.05%)
WEEKLY RECAP:
The Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/AUD) endured a choppy final week of July, falling towards 1.90 before recovering above 1.92 and then easing into Friday’s close.
Pound Sterling strengthened after the Bank of England kept Bank Rate at 3.75%, with three Monetary Policy Committee members voting for an immediate increase.
However, Governor Andrew Bailey pushed back against suggestions that a September hike was taking shape.
MUFG judged the BoE’s communication “supportive” for Sterling, but said that deliberate pushback against rate-rise expectations limited the scope for further upside.
The Australian Dollar also finished the week firmly.
Australian inflation slowed more than expected during the second quarter, prompting markets to almost completely remove the prospect of an RBA hike at its August meeting.
Despite that repricing, the Australian Dollar reached a six-week high against the US Dollar. Broad Dollar weakness, positive risk appetite and demand linked to Australia’s role in the AI investment supply chain outweighed the softer domestic rate outlook.
Scotiabank described the Australian Dollar as an outperformer, although the reduced prospect of further RBA tightening leaves it more exposed to weaker domestic figures.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Australian Spending and Trade Data in Focus For Pound Sterling, Monday’s final manufacturing PMI is followed by Wednesday’s services survey and Thursday’s construction PMI. Further weakness in construction would reinforce concerns over the UK growth outlook.
For the Australian Dollar, Monday brings the Melbourne Institute inflation gauge. Tuesday’s household spending report and ANZ job advertisements will offer fresh evidence on domestic demand and employment.
Thursday’s goods trade balance is forecast to remain in deficit, although the shortfall should narrow from A$3.02 billion to A$1.08 billion. Chinese trade figures on Friday will also be important for Australia’s export-sensitive currency.
Resilient UK surveys alongside weak Australian spending or trade data could lift GBP/AUD towards 1.94. Stronger Australian figures and supportive Chinese data would expose 1.90.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 03.08.2026 USD Fails to Advance
USDJPY looking for another low
The dollar stopped short of turning things around after last week’s intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance.
The pair heads towards 157.00 as traders look for a confirmation break at this level. 157.40 is the level to see if more bears will step in before the pair extends lower. The RSI’s move towards the oversold area could see a test at 159.00, before a possible lift towards 160.75. EURGBP hits rejection
As the pair hit a new low around 0.8550, a potential bullish divergence on the RSI suggests a loss of momentum as prices find some support.
A break below 0.8550 would provide confirmation and prompt more buyers to cover. The former support of 0.8480 could be the last obstacle standing in the way of a substantial sell-off. On the upside, a spike above 0.8600 would undermine sellers’ efforts and trigger a rally to test the previous high above 0.8660. US 30 Index tests daily support
The Dow holds steady as the market digested the recent Fed announcement.
Spikes in price action suggest the index is testing the previous swing low around 52000. The top of a limited bounce at 52600 is the first hurdle to clear. In case of a bearish breakout, a move past 52400 opens up 51800 at the base of the breakout rally. Trading the forex market requires extensive research, and that’s what we do best
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Market Strategist at Orbex David Kindley is a renowned fundamental analyst with over 10 years of trading experience in the financial markets. With a keen eye for macroeconomics and a special focus on trading psychology, David is passionate about helping everyday investors make informed trading decisions through his thorough research and analysis.
TL;DR: Gold has barely moved despite dramatic swings in oil, Treasury yields, and the Dollar over the past month — because the Fed’s abandonment of forward guidance and a widening gap between geopolitical rhetoric and physical Hormuz supply data have raised the bar for what counts as a genuine catalyst.
A Range That Refuses to Break Gold traders enter another pivotal week expecting a familiar set of catalysts to finally break the precious metal out of the 3,942–4,202 range that has contained prices since late June. ISM surveys, Friday’s non-farm payrolls, and the latest developments surrounding the Strait of Hormuz would normally be more than enough to generate a decisive move. Yet there’s a growing risk that those waiting for a breakout are looking in the wrong places.
Gold’s Striking Lack of Sensitivity Over the past month, Gold has shown a striking lack of sensitivity to the very markets that usually drive it:
Brent crude surged from around $70 on July 12 to as high as $102 on July 23, before plunging back to $80 and rebounding again. The US 10-year Treasury yield climbed from 4.36% in late June to above 4.74% last week. The Dollar Index fell from above 101 to as low as 99.4. Under normal circumstances, such dramatic swings in energy prices, yields, and the Dollar would have triggered a clear directional move in Gold. Instead, the metal barely left its established trading range.
Why Warsh’s Fed Changed the Reaction Function The explanation may lie less in Gold itself than in the way markets now process information. Since Kevin Warsh became Federal Reserve Chair, the Fed has largely abandoned the explicit forward guidance that previously helped investors translate incoming economic data into a reasonably predictable policy path. Instead of signaling where interest rates were likely to head, Warsh has repeatedly stressed flexibility and a willingness to let incoming evidence speak for itself.
That shift has fundamentally changed the market’s reaction function. Before Warsh, a stronger-than-expected payrolls report or ISM survey could meaningfully alter expectations for the next FOMC meeting, because investors had a relatively clear policy framework against which to judge the data.
Today, markets already assign roughly a 64% probability to a September rate hike. Ordinary economic surprises may shift those probabilities slightly, but without an explicit policy commitment from the Fed, those adjustments often fail to produce sustained moves in Treasury yields, the Dollar, or Gold. Only data strong or weak enough to force policymakers themselves to abandon the current wait-and-see approach are likely to generate a lasting repricing.
Why Hormuz Headlines Aren’t Moving Gold Either A similar process appears to be unfolding in the Middle East. Throughout this cycle, markets have been confronted with repeated headlines suggesting progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz or de-escalating tensions, often accompanied by optimistic statements from Washington. Yet those announcements have rarely been matched by equivalent confirmation from Tehran, or by clear evidence that oil flows have materially changed. The gap between political messaging and physical developments has become a recurring feature rather than an exception.
As a result, Gold barely reacted to the informal pause in hostilities, repeated claims a deal was close, or successive statements hinting at improving conditions — because traders have learned that announcement-level optimism doesn’t necessarily translate into changes in physical supply. What would matter far more is independently verifiable evidence that Hormuz has genuinely reopened to normal shipping, or conversely, confirmation of sustained disruption to tanker traffic. Those outcomes would have direct implications for oil prices, inflation expectations, and central bank policy — making them far more meaningful for Gold than another round of competing political statements.
The Threshold for a Catalyst Has Risen, Not Disappeared Taken together, these shifts suggest Gold isn’t short of potential catalysts. Rather, the threshold for what constitutes a meaningful catalyst has risen. Ordinary US economic data may not be sufficient unless it fundamentally alters expectations for Fed policy, while ordinary geopolitical headlines have become less influential unless backed by observable changes in energy markets. In both cases, markets are demanding confirmation rather than inference.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold The technical picture tells much the same story. Gold remains trapped within the medium-term falling channel from the 5,598.38 peak and continues to trade comfortably below the falling 55-day EMA, now around 4,213. While the daily MACD has developed bullish divergence, indicating downside momentum is fading, loss of momentum alone isn’t evidence of a trend reversal.
The consolidation above 3,942.23 could certainly extend, but any rebound is likely to encounter significant resistance around the 55-day EMA unless a genuinely new macro catalyst emerges.
What It Would Take to Finally Break the Range For now, both bulls and bears may need patience. Gold isn’t reacting automatically to higher oil prices, a lower Dollar, or routine shifts in Treasury yields. It’s waiting for information capable of breaking the market’s current base case — either a Fed forced into a clear policy commitment by truly exceptional economic data, or a physically confirmed change in conditions around Hormuz that reshapes the inflation outlook. Until one of those occurs, Gold’s prolonged consolidation may have further to run.
Key Takeaways Gold has stayed within its 3,942-4,202 range despite Brent swinging from $70 to $102, the 10-year yield rising from 4.36% to 4.74%, and the Dollar Index falling from 101 to 99.4. Warsh’s abandonment of Fed forward guidance means ordinary economic data no longer reliably shifts rate expectations, muting Gold’s usual sensitivity to yields and the Dollar. Markets have learned that geopolitical optimism around Hormuz rarely matches physical supply confirmation, reducing Gold’s reaction to political headlines alone. The bar for a genuine catalyst has risen: only data forcing a clear Fed policy shift, or verified physical change in Hormuz shipping, is likely to break Gold’s range. Gold remains capped below the falling 55-day EMA near 4,213, with bullish MACD divergence suggesting fading downside momentum but not yet a confirmed reversal.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Gold (XAUUSD) remains under pressure as markets prepare for major US economic events this week. Expectations for higher US interest rates continue to weigh on sentiment, while a weaker US Dollar helps limit additional losses. Market attention now turns to key economic data and geopolitical developments that could provide fresh direction for gold.
Gold holds ground as softer Dollar offsets hawkish Fed expectationsGold starts the week on a cautious note as markets prepare for the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later this week. Expectations for a US Federal Reserve interest rate hike in September remain elevated. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently assign a roughly 65% probability to a rate increase. Higher interest rate expectations continue to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.
At the same time, weakness in the US Dollar helped limit gold's downside. The US Dollar came under pressure after the Japanese Yen strengthened sharply as markets focused on the possibility of another round of official intervention. USD/JPY fell to its lowest level in three months before recovering part of its losses. The softer US Dollar provided underlying support for gold and prevented a deeper decline.
Geopolitical developments continue to influence gold prices. Market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump announced that fresh attacks on Iran had been cancelled and peace talks would begin soon. The announcement pushed oil prices lower and eased concerns about higher inflation driven by energy markets. Attention now turns to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and developments surrounding the US-Iran discussions. These events, together with the US Nonfarm Payrolls report later this week, could determine the next short-term move in both the US Dollar and gold.
Gold technical analysis: Descending wedge keeps recovery limitedThe gold chart below shows price trading within a broad descending wedge that has guided price action in recent months. The pattern reflects a sustained corrective phase, with both the upper resistance line and the lower support line continuing to contain price movements. Gold remains below the descending resistance line, indicating that the broader corrective structure is still intact.
Recent price action shows gold stabilizing above an important horizontal support area. The decline has lost momentum, and price is consolidating while remaining within the wedge. This suggests that downside pressure has eased, although the broader corrective structure has yet to show a confirmed reversal. The descending resistance trendline continues to represent the key technical barrier for any sustained recovery.
Gold is now trading close to the wedge resistance, making this an important technical level to monitor. A sustained move above this resistance would suggest that the corrective phase is weakening and could improve the near-term technical outlook. Conversely, another rejection from the resistance would keep the wedge structure intact and maintain the current corrective bias. Until price breaks decisively in either direction, the wedge continues to define the near-term technical outlook.
Gold outlook: Economic reports and geopolitical developments in focusGold continues to hold a cautious tone as markets prepare for major US economic releases and geopolitical updates. Expectations for higher US interest rates continue to weigh on sentiment, while a weaker US Dollar helps limit additional losses. From a technical perspective, gold continues to trade within its descending wedge. A sustained move above the wedge resistance could improve the near-term outlook, while another rejection would keep the current corrective structure intact.
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently, the U.S. Dollar Index sits around 99.79, approaching significant support due to the long-term ascending trendline intersecting with the 100-day EMA (99.92). After buying pressure was absorbed around 101.61, the Index was pressed to the psychological 100.00, but the broader uptrend is still in effect.
Now the 100-day EMA at 100.45 is the first point of resistance, and the RSI indicates a bearish trend may be losing momentum due to the recent fall to 34. A daily close at 99.47 or lower would negate the uptrend, with a target at 98.53, then 97.63. If prices hold above the trendline, expect a move to 100.45, with the 101.61 target remaining in effect.
While the trend remains bullish, and prices are above the trendline, the next few daily candles will dictate whether the trend remains bullish, or a deeper correction is in effect.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: GBP Approaches Important Resistance Level at 1.3500
The AUD/JPY cross attracts heavy follow-through selling and touches its lowest level since late March, around the 109.40-109.35 region at the start of a new week. Spot prices, however, defend a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and trade around the 110.00 psychological mark during the first half of the European session, still down nearly 0.50% for the day.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative outperformance on the back of a joint US-Japan FX intervention on Friday and hints of further action. Furthermore, the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) readiness to continue pushing up borrowing costs lends additional support to the JPY, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor weighing on the AUD/JPY cross. Apart from this, diminishing odds of an immediate interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) undermine the Australian Dollar (AUD) and suggest that the path of least resistance for the currency pair is to the downside.
From a technical perspective, an intraday failure near the 111.25-111.15 region reaffirms Friday's breakdown through a nearly four-month-old trading range and validates the near-term negative outlook for the AUD/JPY cross. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned deeper into negative ground, hinting at lingering downside momentum. However, the daily Relative Strength Index (14) has slipped to oversold territory near 27, making it prudent to wait for a break below the 200-day SMA at 109.25 before positioning for further losses.
A clear break below this floor would likely expose the AUD/JPY cross to a more decisive bearish phase. On the flip side, any attempted recovery might continue to face stiff resistance and remain capped near the 111.15-111.25 region, which, if cleared, might trigger a short-covering move. The broadly bearish technical setup, however, would warrant caution before confirming that the recent corrective decline from the vicinity of the 115.00 psychological mark has run its course and that spot prices have formed a near-term bottom.
AUD/JPY daily chart
Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.27%-0.17%0.20%0.41%0.52%0.31%EUR-0.21%0.07%-0.33%0.00%0.30%0.32%0.10%GBP-0.27%-0.07%-0.74%-0.07%0.24%0.25%0.03%JPY0.17%0.33%0.74%0.43%0.71%0.79%0.57%CAD-0.20%-0.00%0.07%-0.43%0.29%0.36%0.10%AUD-0.41%-0.30%-0.24%-0.71%-0.29%0.00%-0.18%NZD-0.52%-0.32%-0.25%-0.79%-0.36%-0.00%-0.22%CHF-0.31%-0.10%-0.03%-0.57%-0.10%0.18%0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Chris Turner at ING argues EUR/USD should be performing better given solid Eurozone data, lower Oil prices and Japanese US Dollar (USD) selling, but notes possible US activity in EUR/JPY as a short-term drag. He stresses that the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) September decision and this week’s US data will determine whether EUR/USD tests 1.1615/20 resistance or falls back below 1.15.
Fed decision to steer trend"EUR/USD should probably be doing better, buoyed by decent eurozone hard data last week, lower oil prices and lots of dollar selling from Japan. The fact that it is not may partially be owed to the news that US authorities were checking rates in – and possibly selling – EUR/JPY on Friday. However, we doubt such news will have any lasting impact on the euro."
"For reference, the US Treasury only has around $13bn of euro-denominated FX reserves to sell ($1.2bn in deposits, $11.7bn in securities), which is barely a drop in the ocean compared to Tokyo's activity in FX markets and the size of global FX flows."
"We suspect the US Treasury might have sold EUR/JPY – in effect raising yen investments at the Exchange Stabilisation Fund at the expense of the euro – to avoid having to explain to the US public why it was selling the dollar."
"The bigger and more lasting driver of the EUR/USD trend will be the Fed's September decision. That remains unresolved, and US data this week will have a big say if we end the week pressing 1.1615/20 resistance or trading back below 1.15."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD climbed to its highest level in more than six weeks after breaking above 1.1500. Softer expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continued to pressure the US dollar. Traders now await ISM manufacturing data before shifting attention to Friday's US payrolls report. The euro began the week on a stronger footing, extending last week’s rally as broad-based weakness in the US dollar continued to support the common currency. EUR/USD climbed above 1.1500, reaching its highest level since mid-June after investors scaled back expectations that the Federal Reserve will need to resume raising interest rates this year.
Last week’s Fed meeting marked a turning point for the dollar. Although policymakers left interest rates unchanged, markets were unconvinced that officials are prepared to deliver another hike unless inflation accelerates significantly. Treasury yields retreated after the meeting, dragging the greenback lower across major currency pairs and allowing the euro to recover sharply from July’s lows.
At the same time, geopolitical concerns eased after reports that the United States postponed further military action against Iran. The decline in oil prices that followed helped reduce immediate inflation concerns, removing one of the main factors that had recently supported the US dollar.
US economic data now becomes the next catalyst for EUR/USD With the Federal Reserve now temporarily out of the spotlight, investors are turning their attention to incoming economic data for fresh clues on the direction of US monetary policy.
Monday’s ISM Manufacturing PMI will offer an early indication of how the US industrial sector performed in July after recent signs that business activity has begun to stabilize. Markets will also monitor the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for confirmation of broader economic momentum.
However, attention is already shifting toward Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report, widely regarded as the week’s most important release. A resilient labour market could revive expectations for tighter monetary policy later this year, while weaker employment growth would strengthen the view that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle.
That makes this week’s data particularly important for EUR/USD after last week’s breakout.
Euro buyers regain technical control The technical picture has improved considerably over the past several sessions.
After establishing support around 1.1350, EUR/USD has produced a strong impulsive recovery, breaking through the psychological 1.1500 level while also clearing the descending trendline that had capped prices since June.
The rally has been accompanied by a move back above both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the argument that medium-term bullish momentum is returning. Price is now consolidating just below 1.1560, suggesting buyers are pausing after a rapid advance rather than showing signs of exhaustion.
A sustained move above 1.1558 would expose the June high near 1.1620, while a successful break there could encourage a broader recovery toward 1.1650.
Bullish Outlook The outlook remains positive while EUR/USD holds above 1.1480. Continued weakness in the US dollar and softer Treasury yields could allow buyers to challenge 1.1558, with 1.1620 becoming the next major upside objective.
Bearish Outlook Failure to hold above 1.1480 would increase the risk of profit-taking after last week’s rally. A decisive break below 1.1430 could expose 1.1350, signalling that the recent recovery was only corrective rather than the beginning of a broader trend reversal.
On the downside, the first layer of support sits near 1.1480, followed by 1.1455, which represents the midpoint of the latest advance. A move below 1.1430 would weaken the current bullish structure and suggest that sellers are regaining control.
EUR/USD Outlook The near-term outlook for EUR/USD remains constructive after last week’s decisive break above the 1.1500 psychological level shifted momentum back in favour of buyers. However, the pair is entering a data-heavy week that could determine whether the rally has enough strength to extend toward the June highs. Traders will closely monitor the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Softer-than-expected US data could reinforce dollar weakness and lift EUR/USD toward 1.1620, while stronger economic readings may trigger a pullback as investors revive expectations of tighter US monetary policy. For now, the broader bias remains bullish as long as the pair holds above key support around 1.1480.
With the Federal Reserve’s policy considerations and the U.S. economic timetable being of primary concern, market participants will await July’s non-farm payrolls for further market cues. Recently, the Federal Reserve reviewed the U.S. cash rate in an anticipated 3.50% -3.75% range. This decision recorded a rare 9-3 majority vote. The 3 dissenting members remained hawkish. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh once more reiterated that future policy decisions will remain dependent on data, balancing the rate of inflation and prediction of risks. For the time being, markets will contend if the data will support a September pivot.
Recent data shows that although there continues to be strong demand for gold and silver from the institutional market, the purchasing of these metals by the official sector has lessened. The World Gold Council reported that in May, central banks purchased a net 41 tonnes of gold, with Poland and China being the largest buyers. The World Gold Council revised estimates of purchases during the first quarter, and the new, lower figures, showed that reserve accumulation slowed in early 2023. The Council’s annual survey reported that in the next 12 months, 89% of surveyed central banks expect holdings of gold will rise, confirming the reserve diversification role of gold.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights GBP/USD’s volatile session, with a spike from 1.3401 to 1.3481 and scope for further gains toward 1.3520, though overbought conditions may cap upside. For the next 1–3 weeks, he sees strong momentum but questions whether the pair can break and hold above 1.3555, with support around 1.3385.
Upside momentum tempered by overbought"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP traded in a relatively volatile manner last Friday, dropping to a low of 1.3401 before rising sharply to close at 1.3481 (+0.13%). While the sharp rise has scope to extend, overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 1.3520. The major resistance at 1.3555 is not expected to come into view. Support is at 1.3450; a breach of 1.3425 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: GBP broke above the significant resistance at 1.3400 last week and soared to 1.3494. While strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the next significant resistance at 1.3555. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3385"
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Weekly US Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar reacts first when rate expectations shift. Silver follows. That is the order of operations this week.
The currency dropped after the Fed decision. Concerns about Japanese intervention added selling pressure and amplified the move lower. Silver ran on that unwind. Then U.S. yields recovered Friday, the dollar firmed and silver gave back ground with it.
There is no clean trend in the currency right now. Rate expectations pull one direction, intervention risk pulls the other. That creates a choppy environment where silver can get a strong one-day move and lose half of it the next morning.
The clean trade for the bulls is all three moving at once: September odds falling, yields dropping and the dollar breaking lower. Silver does not need the full package every session. But if the long end stays above 5%, the dollar has to give. Otherwise buyers have no room to work.
Payrolls Friday Settles the Week Payrolls Friday is the one number that can reprice September and move the dollar in a clean direction. Everything before it builds the narrative.
Fed speakers are back this week with the committee split out in the open. The three dissenters can explain publicly why they voted for action. Any speech leaning hard on inflation or wages can lift September odds and put a bid back under the dollar.
The labor data lands in sequence. Tuesday’s JOLTS report provides the first read on job openings. Wednesday’s ADP number gives another signal. Both can move yields ahead of the main event.
Strong job growth with firm wages is exactly what the dissenters need to build the case for September. That would send yields higher, firm the dollar and hand control to silver sellers.
The bulls need a miss. Slower wage growth, rising unemployment, or a headline that comes in below consensus pulls September odds back down and weakens the dollar. That is the only setup where silver gets room to extend last week’s rally.
What to Watch Three dissenters, a 30-year yield above 5.20% for the first time since 2007, and a Fed Chair who will not tell you what September looks like. Silver got a one-day reprieve when the dollar sold off. The bond market took it back. That is the problem. Every dollar decline runs straight into a wall of rising long-end yields, and until those yields roll over, rallies in this metal are borrows, not keeps.
Friday’s payrolls number is the only release this week that can actually reprice September in a lasting way. A miss below consensus with cooling wages gives the dollar bears something real to trade. Firm job growth hands Hammack and Logan and Kashkari the labor data they need to push the committee toward action.
Technically, traders are eyeing the long-term 50% level at $60.835 for direction. Overcoming it could lead to a test of the 52-week moving average. A failure to extend a rally over the pivot could lead to a retest of the July bottom at $54.78.
The AUD/USD pair faces rejection near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and retreats slightly after hitting a fresh high since June 17, around the 0.7050 level earlier this Monday. Spot prices slide to the 0.7030-0.7025 region heading into the European session, though the downside potential seems limited amid a supportive fundamental and technical setup.
The US Dollar (USD) stages a goodish recovery from a one-and-a-half-month low, which, along with the disappointing release of China's RatingDog Manufacturing PMI, exerts some pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, renewed hopes for a US-Iran peace deal and receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, amid easing inflation fears on the back of a steep decline in oil prices, should cap the USD and help limit the downside for the currency pair.
From a technical perspective, last week's breakout through the 0.7020 barrier, representing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June downfall, was seen as a key trigger for AUD/USD bulls. Moreover, momentum indicators remain supportive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index is hovering around 57, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slightly positive, hinting that buyers still control the short-term bias while facing nearby resistance.
However, the 100-day SMA at 0.7053, followed by the 50.0% retracement at 0.7069, might continue to act as immediate hurdles. A daily close above this cluster would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 0.7117 and then 0.7184, ahead of the cycle high near 0.7271.
On the downside, initial support aligns with the 38.2% retracement at 0.7021, with additional layers at 0.6962 and the 200-day SMA at 0.6913, while a deeper retreat would expose the structural floor around 0.6867.
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Pound-Dollar could extend its recovery if US labour market data weakens further, although stronger ISM surveys may help steady the Greenback. The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate climbed to a 15-day high last week as investors scaled back Federal Reserve rate hike expectations following softer US economic data and the latest central bank decisions.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3483, up approximately 1% over the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.347555 (-0.05%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.153631 (+0.06%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 156.42647 (-0.65%)
Image: GBP/USD monthly returns WEEKLY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) opened the week on a firm footing as a cautious market mood boosted demand for the safe-haven currency.
Trading remained subdued until Wednesday evening, when the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged by a 9-3 vote and adopted a broadly neutral tone.
Following the decision, markets pared back expectations for further Fed interest rate hikes this year, triggering broad-based US Dollar weakness.
Selling pressure intensified on Thursday after second-quarter US GDP growth slowed to 1.5%, missing expectations and decelerating from 2.1% in the first quarter.
At the same time, the latest core PCE price index suggested inflation cooled modestly in June, adding to expectations that the Fed may be in no hurry to tighten policy further.
An improving market mood also kept the safe-haven US Dollar under pressure into the end of the week.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) traded without clear direction during the first half of the week ahead of the Bank of England's policy decision.
The BoE announcement provided modest support for Sterling, although gains were uneven as investors assessed the voting split and Governor Andrew Bailey's comments.
Policymaker Catherine Mann joined two colleagues in voting for an interest rate increase after previously supporting unchanged policy, while Bailey reiterated there was little evidence that inflation was becoming entrenched in the UK economy.
After a soft start on Friday, Sterling recovered after Chancellor John Healey confirmed the date of the Autumn Budget and reiterated the government's commitment to maintaining its fiscal rules, helping reassure investors.
Image: Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate forecast consensus range as of August 2026 Share article
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Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Non-Farm Payrolls Report in Focus Looking ahead, the US ISM manufacturing and services PMIs on Monday and Wednesday are expected to provide the first major clues on the health of the US economy.
If both surveys point to improving business activity, the US Dollar could regain some support.
However, the week's key release will be Friday's US non-farm payrolls report.
A stronger-than-expected increase in employment could revive support for the Greenback, although any further rise in the unemployment rate may offset the positive impact.
Meanwhile, the UK's final services PMI on Wednesday is the main domestic release for Sterling. Confirmation that the UK's dominant services sector returned to growth in July could provide additional support for the Pound.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The United States joined Japan in buying yen to contain disorderly currency moves, protect the US Treasury market and prevent Japan’s financial strains spilling into the global economy. The Japanese Yen strengthened sharply on Monday after Japan confirmed that Washington had joined Tokyo in a rare coordinated intervention to support the currency.
Image: USD/JPY crashed as seen in the 24h chart Japan’s Ministry of Finance said it purchased yen alongside the US Treasury on Friday to counter “excessive volatility and disorderly movements” after the currency fell towards a 40-year low near ¥164 against the Dollar. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama warned that the two countries would not hesitate to intervene again.
At the time of writing, the US Dollar to Yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) was trading around 156.63, down 0.52% on the day. The pair briefly plunged towards 155.27 overnight before recovering, extending its retreat from levels above 163 in late July.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 156.62001 (-0.53%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.153244 (+0.02%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.347124 (-0.08%)
Washington’s involvement was not simply an act of support for a key Asian ally.
Japan had already spent heavily buying yen, with Bank of Japan data suggesting that Tokyo may have deployed almost $59 billion during Thursday’s intervention. Funding further action by selling US government bonds risked driving Treasury prices lower and pushing American borrowing costs higher.
The US intervention therefore helped address two risks at once: a destabilising collapse in the yen and the possibility that Japan could become a forced seller of Treasuries as it raised dollars to defend its currency.
The Federal Reserve’s FIMA repo facility could also allow Japan to obtain temporary dollar liquidity without selling its Treasury holdings outright.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent described the facility as an important backstop and said Washington was prepared to participate in further coordinated action.
The move also supports the Trump administration’s trade agenda.
An exceptionally weak yen makes Japanese exports cheaper and can offset some of the competitive impact of US tariffs, while higher import costs are intensifying inflation and political pressure within Japan.
The intervention has forced traders to unwind large speculative bets against the yen, but officials may struggle to secure a lasting recovery without help from monetary policy.
The Bank of Japan kept its benchmark rate at 1.00% last week, although the coordinated action and increasingly forceful US pressure have strengthened expectations of another increase as soon as September.
Image: Dollar-Yen exchange rate performance over 2026 For USD/JPY, the immediate risk is now two-sided.
Further intervention could drive the pair back below 155.00, while a failure to follow the currency purchases with tighter Japanese policy could eventually allow the underlying US-Japan yield gap to reassert itself.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The US dollar has come under renewed pressure following last week's FOMC meeting and coordinated support for the Japanese yen by Japan's Ministry of Finance and the US Treasury. The move has fuelled gains in EUR/USD and AUD/USD, while raising fresh questions over whether the Dollar Index has formed a significant top.
US Dollar Outlook: What It Means for EUR/USD and AUD/USD In this video, Matt Simpson analyses the Dollar Index on the daily and weekly charts, highlighting why it may be approaching a key inflection point despite the broader bearish outlook. He also explains why EUR/USD and AUD/USD could be vulnerable to a near-term pullback before attempting to extend their longer-term advances, and discusses the key technical levels to watch ahead of ISM surveys and Non-Farm Payrolls.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang observes EUR/USD rebounded sharply after a dip to 1.1453, with scope to extend gains toward 1.1565 intraday, provided it holds above 1.1495. On a 1–3 week view, he sees potential for a test of 1.1565 and possibly 1.1600, while a break below 1.1455 would undermine the bullish scenario.
Upside bias toward 1.1565–1.1600"24-HOUR VIEW: Last Friday, USD fell to a low of 1.1453 and then rebounded sharply to close unchanged at 1.1527. EUR could continue to rebound today but note that 1.1565 is expected to provide significant resistance. To keep the momentum going, EUR must hold above 1.1495, with minor support at 1.1510."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After dropping to a low of 1.1353 early last week, EUR soared and ended the week 1.41% higher at 1.1527. The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600. On the downside, a breach of 1.1455 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR is unlikely to break above 1.1565."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-Euro could extend its recovery if UK services data confirms renewed growth, although weaker German releases may be needed to unlock a return towards €1.18. The Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate fell to a one-month low last week before recovering after the Bank of England's interest rate decision and renewed reassurance over the UK government's fiscal plans.
At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading around €1.1690, down approximately 0.2% over the week.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.168098 (-0.11%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.347555 (-0.05%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.153631 (+0.06%)
Image: GBP/EUR monthly returns WEEKLY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) lacked support through the first half of last week, with the absence of major UK economic releases giving Sterling little to work with ahead of Thursday’s Bank of England policy announcement.
Sterling recouped some of its losses following the central bank’s decision, although its advance proved patchy as markets assessed the voting split and the tone of the accompanying guidance.
Policymaker Catherine Mann backed an interest rate hike alongside two other members, having voted to keep rates on hold at previous meetings.
At the same time, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey remarked that there was limited evidence to suggest inflation was becoming entrenched across the economy.
Although the Pound opened Friday’s session on the back foot, it recovered as the day progressed.
Chancellor John Healey helped steady sentiment after confirming the date of the Autumn Budget and reaffirming the government’s commitment to its fiscal rules.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) firmed early last week as Germany’s latest IFO business climate index beat forecasts, rising for the third consecutive month to hit a five-month high.
The common currency then extended its gains thanks to a decline in the US Dollar (USD), with which EUR is negatively correlated, helping the single currency hit a one-month high against Sterling.
However, the Euro gave back some of its gains on Thursday despite stronger-than-forecast GDP figures.
Geopolitical tensions put pressure on the single currency after a Russian missile crashed in Poland.
Slightly hotter-than-forecast inflation data lent EUR support on Friday, although the Euro’s upside remained limited.
Image: Pound Sterling currency performance over the last 30 days Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: Final PMIs to Influence the Pairing? Looking ahead, the final UK and Eurozone services PMIs for July could influence the Pound to Euro exchange rate in the middle of the week.
Both currencies could attract support if the surveys confirm renewed growth in their respective services sectors, while any unexpected revisions could generate sharper movement.
UK economic data is then in short supply through the remainder of the week, potentially leaving Sterling without a strong domestic catalyst.
Meanwhile, slowing German factory orders and weaker Eurozone retail sales could weigh on the Euro on Thursday.
The single currency may then face additional pressure on Friday if German industrial production stalled in June.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
