Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Pound-Dollar could recover if UK PMIs improve, while weaker US durable goods orders may take some of the recent momentum out of the Dollar. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate collapsed last week as the Federal Reserve delivered its first interest rate hike in three years.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3365. A 1.1% slump from the start of last week’s session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.339468 (+0.29%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.148572 (+0.09%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 156.88243 (+0.46%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) was catapulted higher last week, following the Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision.

Going into the meeting, expectations were high, with USD investors anticipating some clear hawkish signals to accompany a widely expected 25bps rate hike from the bank.

Despite setting such a high bar, the Fed was able to clear it with ease, as Fed Chair Kevin Warsh – who had previously been reluctant to offer any explicit guidance – stressed the need to do more to control inflation and strongly signalled that the US central bank will deliver another interest rate hike before the end of the year.

While the ‘Greenback’ subsequently relinquished a portion of these gains as USD investors booked their profits, the US Dollar was still able to close the week significantly higher.

The Pound (GBP) was subdued through the first half of last week, weighed down by underwhelming UK macroeconomic data.

Tuesday's jobs report initially seemed supportive as domestic unemployment held steady instead of rising as forecast, yet GBP investors were ultimately left disappointed by signs of underlying weakness in the UK labour market.

Wednesday’s inflation figures did little to improve Sterling’s fortunes, as a rise in headline price growth was offset as core inflation remained flat.

Sterling selling pressure then intensified on Thursday following the Bank of England’s (BoE) own interest rate decision.

While the BoE’s decision to leave rates on hold was widely expected, and policymakers hinted at the need for future hikes, the Pound still stumbled as the BoE fell further behind its peers in restarting its hiking cycle.

However, Sterling managed to mount a partial recovery on Friday, courtesy of an unexpected rebound in UK retail sales last month.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK PMIs to Offer Respite for Sterling? Looking ahead to this week, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate may mount a recovery with the publication of the UK’s latest PMI data.

Should September’s preliminary figures report that activity in the UK’s private sector continued to accelerate, it may help to lift some of the recent malaise surrounding Sterling.

Meanwhile, the most impactful US economic release this week will be the latest US durable goods order data, with an expected contraction in order growth last month potentially dragging in USD in the second half of the session.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

USD/CAD Price Forecast: Strengthens above 1.4000, bullish tone prevails above key averages

TL;DR: Australia’s Big Four banks now all expect a September RBA hike to 4.60%, but the real disagreement has shifted to how high the cash rate ultimately needs to go—a question AUD/NZD, already stretched near 1.25, won’t settle until October 28 CPI.

The Big Four Converge on September The debate over whether the RBA will hike in September is rapidly disappearing. Australia’s Big Four banks now all expect a 25bp increase, which would take the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%, the highest since 2011. NAB was already positioned for a September move. Westpac switched after Governor Michele Bullock’s September 18 parliamentary testimony, while CBA and ANZ followed on September 21.

What pulled the forecasts together wasn’t simply another strong inflation print. Bullock told the House Standing Committee on Economics that some of the upside inflation risks identified by the RBA were now “materialising.” She pointed to renewed increases in oil and related prices, an unresolved Middle East conflict, and the AI investment boom, which is strengthening activity in supply-chain economies while lifting prices for constrained technologies. July inflation had already left the RBA with little comfort, with headline CPI at 3.5% yoy and trimmed mean inflation at 3.6% yoy.

The change in oil is especially striking. CBA’s Belinda Allen noted that Brent was near US$80 when the bank previously changed its RBA view, compared with above US$100 more recently. That creates an immediate fuel-price effect and raises the risk that higher costs spread through the broader economy. Markets have followed the same logic: CBA estimates the probability of a September hike has risen from roughly 30% before July CPI to around 90%.

September Consensus Opens a Bigger Question: Is 4.60% Enough? The apparent consensus becomes much less convincing once the analysis moves beyond September.

Westpac and ANZ expect next week’s decision to be split, while CBA anticipates a unanimous hike. The distinction matters because it reveals different views about how strongly the Board itself believes additional restraint is needed. Westpac sees genuine room for disagreement over labor-market slack, labor-supply growth, and productivity. CBA sees a stronger consensus for action, while acknowledging the case for leaving rates unchanged isn’t one-sided.

The deeper split is over the destination. ANZ expects another hike in November, which would lift the cash rate to 4.85%. Its interpretation is important: September isn’t merely November brought forward. Instead, the latest inflation shock may mean the RBA ultimately needs a higher policy rate than previously assumed.

CBA and Westpac stop short of that conclusion. CBA sees increasing risk of a second move but hasn’t made it the base case, identifying a 1.0% or stronger September-quarter trimmed mean CPI increase as a result that could put November firmly into play. Westpac similarly regards another hike as possible but wants more evidence first. So while the Big Four now agree about September, the real argument has shifted from “when does the RBA hike?” to “how high does it ultimately need to go?”

Thursday’s Jobs Report Matters—Just Not in the Obvious Way That makes this week’s labor-market report more interesting than a simple “strong data equals hike” framework would suggest. Economists expect August unemployment to hold at 4.5%, with employment rising about 20.9k. CBA believes only a large downside surprise would probably be enough to change its September call. In other words, the jobs report is unlikely to determine whether the RBA moves next week.

Its importance lies further ahead. Australia’s labor market has been loosening gradually on the ABS trend measures: unemployment rose from 4.3% in March to 4.5% in July, underemployment from 6.0% to 6.4%, and underutilisation from 10.4% to 10.8%. Participation has remained firm, while employment has continued to grow. It’s the shape of a labor market developing more slack without falling into a sharp contraction.

That’s precisely what the RBA needs to watch as oil and AI-related price pressures hit the economy. The latest inflation threat isn’t primarily wage-driven. The question is whether those external cost pressures eventually feed into wages and become persistent second-round inflation. If labor-market loosening continues, the Board has more reason to believe a September hike can contain the shock. If slack stops building, ANZ’s 4.85% scenario becomes easier to justify.

Even then, jobs aren’t the decisive November gate. That role belongs to September-quarter CPI on October 28, only five days before the November 2–3 RBA meeting. CBA has explicitly identified trimmed mean inflation as the potential trigger for another increase, making October CPI the release most capable of resolving the disagreement now opening between ANZ and the more cautious CBA and Westpac views.

Thursday’s figures also deserve some methodological caution. The ABS will remove supplementary-survey adjustment factors for August and February releases beginning with this report, which it says could have a small impact on the variability of the August estimates. The sample also returns to eight rotation groups after July used seven. That makes the underlying trend more informative than overreacting to one seasonally adjusted monthly number.

ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/NZD: Already Running With the RBA Story Markets aren’t waiting until September 29 to express the change in expectations. AUD/NZD has climbed to its highest level since April 2013 and is now trading around 1.245, putting the psychologically important 1.25 level within reach.

The cross is especially useful this week because it strips away much of the Dollar-specific noise embedded in AUD/USD. The US Dollar has its own catalysts, while the New Zealand Dollar has fewer major standalone events on the calendar. AUD/NZD therefore provides a relatively clean test of how far the RBA repricing can carry the Australian Dollar.

The problem is that the rally is becoming stretched just as the macro consensus becomes strongest. Daily RSI has risen above 80, while AUD/NZD is approaching a significant 1.25–1.26 resistance zone. The area contains a projection at 1.2534, another at 1.2608, and the psychological weight of the round-number zone itself:

38.2% projection of 1.0649 to 1.2283 from 1.1910 at 1.2534 161.8% projection of 1.0278 to 1.1489 from 1.0649 at 1.2608

That doesn’t yet make 1.25 a top. There’s no clear topping signal, and overbought momentum can persist in a strong trend. But the resistance cluster creates a natural place for some profit-taking, particularly with a September hike already heavily anticipated.

A retreat from the zone would remain corrective while 1.2274 support holds. A decisive move through 1.2608 would instead suggest traders are increasingly pricing the RBA story beyond September and toward a higher eventual policy rate.

September May Be the Easy Call The striking part of the current RBA debate is that agreement has arrived just as the more important uncertainty begins.

A September hike to 4.60% is now the common Big Four call. Thursday’s jobs figures can influence how policymakers think about second-round inflation, but they’re unlikely to settle the question of what happens next. That will require evidence on whether the external inflation shock is becoming embedded domestically.

For that, October 28 CPI is the real gate. Until then, the tension is visible in AUD/NZD itself: increasingly bullish Australian rate expectations have driven the pair toward 1.25, but they’ve also left it technically stretched. The next phase will determine whether 1.25–1.26 becomes a place to take profit—or merely another resistance zone overcome as markets start pricing 4.85%.

Key Takeaways All four major Australian banks now expect a September 25bp RBA hike to 4.60%, up from roughly 30% market probability before July CPI to around 90% now. The real disagreement has shifted beyond September: ANZ expects a follow-up November hike to 4.85%, while CBA and Westpac see it as a risk, not yet their base case. Thursday’s jobs report is unlikely to change the September call itself; its importance lies in showing whether labor-market slack keeps building, which affects the case for a second hike. September-quarter CPI on October 28, just five days before the November RBA meeting, is the real gate that will resolve whether the cash rate stops at 4.60% or needs to go further. AUD/NZD is testing 1.25-1.26 resistance (1.2534 and 1.2608 projections) with daily RSI above 80; a retreat would stay corrective above 1.2274, while a break of 1.2608 would signal markets are pricing the RBA story beyond September.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold starts the week near a one-week high of around 4,345 USD per troy ounce. Last week marked the precious metal’s first weekly gain in a month. Falling oil prices are supporting gold, easing concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.

At the same time, a strong US dollar is limiting gold’s upside potential. The US currency continues to draw support from the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, with the central bank making clear that further increases remain possible in the coming months.

Markets currently estimate the probability of another rate hike as early as next month at almost 60%. Another signal of global monetary tightening came from the Bank of Japan’s decision to raise rates to a 31-year high, with the central bank not ruling out further increases.

Meanwhile, Brent prices are falling. Concerns about supply disruptions from Saudi Arabia have eased, and this has so far outweighed the risk of a broader escalation in the Middle East. For gold, this combination – lower oil prices but still-hawkish central banks – creates a mixed backdrop.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market has completed an upward move towards 4,399 USD. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level.

A break below the lower boundary could open the way for the bearish trend to continue towards 4,215 USD. An upside breakout, however, could open the way for a further rise towards 4,495 USD.

The MACD indicator supports continued short-term upward momentum. Its signal line remains above zero and is pointing firmly upwards.

On the H1 XAU/USD chart, the market broke above 4,333 USD and moved higher to 4,399 USD. A consolidation range has now largely formed around 4,365 USD.

A downside breakout could open the way for a decline towards 4,321 USD, while an upside breakout could open the way for a further rise towards 4,495 USD.

The Stochastic oscillator supports the short-term bearish scenario. Its signal line remains below 50 and appears poised to turn lower towards 20.

Conclusion Gold started the week near a one-week high, supported by falling oil prices that have eased inflation concerns. However, the precious metal’s upside remains limited by a strong US dollar, which continues to benefit from the Fed’s recent rate hike and the prospect of further tightening. The Bank of Japan’s decision to raise rates to a 31-year high adds to the global tightening narrative.

With oil prices falling as concerns about Saudi supply disruptions ease, but central banks maintaining hawkish stances, gold faces a mixed backdrop. From a technical perspective, a downside breakout could expose 4,321 USD in the short term, with the broader bearish target at 4,215 USD. Conversely, an upside breakout could open the way for a further rise towards 4,495 USD.

RoboForex Ltdhttps://www.roboforex.com/

RoboForex Ltd is a reputable financial brokerage company that has been operating since 2009. It provides reliable access to the largest financial markets with competitive conditions.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Signs of stabilization above 20-day EMA back more upside

Philippines Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

EUR/USD hits a key juncture – Recovery or next bearish leg

NZD/USD breaks below 0.786 support Arc – Potential decline toward 0.5646

India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

Silver (XAG) rose toward $67 an ounce and gained for the third straight session. Oil prices continued to drop on Monday after marking a high last week. This drop in oil prices eased some inflation concerns and supported the recovery in metals. But further Fed tightening and elevated Treasury yields remain major risks.

Silver could extend the gains if oil continues to fall and expectations of rate softening persist. A fresh increase in yields and the U.S. dollar could slow the recovery in silver.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Trapped Between $4,300 and $4,530 XAU/USD Holds Key at $4,300 The daily chart for spot gold shows strong consolidation between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs in the $4,300 to $4,530 area. A break of these SMAs will likely define the next move in the gold market. A break below $4,300 will push the price towards the $4,150 area.

On the other hand, a break above $4,530 will open the way for a strong rally towards the $4,800 to $5,000 region. The RSI remains at the midline, which shows uncertainty in the short term. However, the price structure remains bullish as long as the price remains above the $4,000 level.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD consolidates near $66.35 at the start of the week

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below 1.1500, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A low was formed at 1.1455, and the pair started a consolidation phase.

Central bank meetings in the U.S. and Japan were the main focus last week. Both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 0.25% as expected, but their comments caused large market moves. All Fed members supported the rate increase, which surprised some traders. Higher U.S. interest rates and rising bond yields also put pressure on stock markets.

Oil prices rose strongly at the start of the week after attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia increased concerns about supply from the Middle East. WTI crude oil moved above $100. Higher oil prices also increased concerns that inflation could stay high and interest rates could remain high for longer.

The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1.25%, with seven members voting for the increase and two voting against it. USDJPY moved higher on Friday after the BoJ statement, as some traders had expected a stronger signal about further rate increases. Following the rise, reports that the Bank of Japan had checked currency rates increased the risk of intervention and caused USDJPY to fall later in the day.

Markets This Week U.S. Stocks The Dow Jones fell for a third week in a row as high oil prices increased inflation concerns and raised expectations that the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates further. With little important economic data until Friday, oil prices could remain an important driver for stocks. Unless oil prices fall significantly, selling below the falling 10-day moving average remains the preferred approach. Resistance levels are at 52,000, 52,700, 53,000, 53,750, 54,000 and 54,500. Support is seen at 51,500, 51,000, 50,000 and 49,000.

Japanese Stocks The Nikkei 225 rose more than 2% last week as oil prices eased from their highs and the Bank of Japan was less aggressive than expected about future interest rate increases. The recent short-term downtrend has been broken, with the market closing the week above the 10-day moving average. Range trading may be the better approach this week, with quieter conditions likely as Japanese markets are closed for holidays from Monday through Wednesday. Resistance is at 66,000, 67,500, 69,500, 70,000 and 71,000. Support is at 64,000, 63,000 and 62,000.

USD/JPY USDJPY had a volatile week, recovering above 155 as traders prepared for the central bank meetings. The Federal Reserve showed more concern about inflation than expected, while two Bank of Japan members voted against the rate increase. USDJPY moved close to 158 on Friday before reports that the BoJ had checked currency rates increased the risk of intervention and brought sellers back into the market. With the BoJ unlikely to raise interest rates quickly but intervention still a risk, sideways trading between 155 and 158 looks likely in the short term. Resistance is at 158.00, 159.00 and 160.00 while support is at 156.00, 155.00, 153.00, 152.50, 152.00, 150.00 and 149.00

Gold Higher WTI crude oil prices and expectations of a U.S. interest rate increase pushed gold lower at the start of last week, with prices falling below the monthly lows. Despite the Federal Reserve suggesting that further rate increases could be needed, gold recovered as oil prices eased and buyers returned later in the week. The weekly close above the 10-day moving average and the recovery despite higher interest rates suggest the worst may be over for gold in the short term. Looking for buying opportunities on weakness is now the preferred approach. Resistance is at $4,400, $4,500, $4,600, $4,650, $4,700, $4,775 and $4,900, while support is at $4,300, $4,225, $4,200, $4,125 and $4,100.

Crude Oil WTI crude oil moved higher early last week before falling back to around $100. Supply concerns eased later in the week on hopes that Saudi Arabia could find alternative ways to move oil and that attacks on oil facilities could slow. A break below $100 and the 10-day moving average could be a signal to look for selling opportunities this week. Resistance is at $105, $110 and $115, while support is at $95, $90, $85, $80, $75, and $67.50.

Bitcoin Bitcoin tested support around $75,000 early last week as expectations of higher U.S. interest rates and rising oil prices put pressure on the market. Bitcoin also fell after the Clarity Act failed to pass, but selling did not continue and prices recovered strongly. The recovery from $75,000 support is encouraging, with buying on weakness preferred this week. A break above $82,000 could support a larger move higher. Resistance is at $82,000, $85,000, $90,000, $95,000 and $100,000, while support is at $75,000, $65,000, $62,000, $60,000, $55,000 and $50,000.

This Week’s Focus Monday: None

Tuesday: U.S. ADP Employment Change Weekly Wednesday: E.U. HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, U.K. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Thursday: Japan S&P Global Services PMI, Australia Unemployment Rate, E.U. ECB Economic Bulletin, U.S. Current Account and New Home Sales Friday: U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Michigan Consumer Sentiment With little important economic data until Friday, traders will focus on the market reaction to last week’s Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan meetings. USDJPY will be closely watched, especially after reports of a rate check on Friday increased the risk of intervention. WTI crude oil will also remain in focus to see if prices can fall back below $100. Meanwhile, higher U.S. 10-year Treasury yields could continue to put pressure on stock markets.

Titan FXhttp://titanfx.com

Titan FX is a technology driven online ECN forex and commodities broker that provides traders with next generation trading conditions, institutional grade spreads, fast trade execution, deep top tier liquidity and the security of financial registration and oversight.

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7487 vs. 6.7521 previous

AUD/USD pulls back into a quieter week featuring Australian jobs data, RBA speakers and the Trump–Xi summit.

Gold Price has recovered towards $4,380, but UniCredit expects higher rates to restrain gains even as central banks and investors support demand. The gold price (XAU/USD) ended Friday near $4,380 an ounce, close to the lower end of UniCredit's revised $4,300-$5,000 forecast range for end-2026.

Bullion gained 0.75% over the week but remained 2.92% lower over the past month, reflecting the uneven recovery from September's lows.

UniCredit retains a neutral to slightly constructive outlook, with higher interest rates limiting how far demand from central banks and investors can lift prices.

Its upper forecast boundary sits roughly 14% above Friday's close, although the bank expects only a modest upward bias.

Image: Gold price vs USD - one month chart Why the cause of rising yields matters The Federal Reserve's quarter-point increase to 3.75%-4.00% sharpened competition from interest-bearing assets and helped drive the Dollar higher against the Euro.

Gold pays no interest, so rising yields increase the income investors forgo by holding it.

UniCredit nevertheless argues that higher long-term yields have different implications depending on what drives them.

A steeper yield curve caused by stronger growth and higher expected equilibrium interest rates would typically weigh on gold.

"However, a steepening driven by fiscal deficits, debt-sustainability concerns and higher term premia can be supportive, particularly if it weakens confidence in the US dollar."

We think this leaves confidence in government finances central to the forecast, alongside the direction of interest rates.

Image: XAU/USD 2026 chart Gold remains only 1.42% higher since the start of 2026 after retreating from its January peak near $5,594.

Even the upper end of UniCredit's December range would leave bullion below that peak, allowing for a recovery without assuming a return to this year's highs.

The bank also sees several sources of continuing demand:

"Sustained central-bank purchases, recovering ETF inflows, portfolio-diversification demand and concerns about preserving purchasing power amid large fiscal deficits and rising public debt continue to provide support."

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

A near-1% weekly fall leaves the Euro exposed to further Dollar gains, although both banks see ECB tightening limiting the decline. The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) finished Friday near 1.1486, almost 1% lower over the week, with ING warning of a possible test of 1.1400.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.148572 (+0.09%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.339468 (+0.29%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 156.88243 (+0.46%)

Crédit Agricole's December forecast is lower at 1.13, extending to March 2027 before a gradual recovery later that year.

Wednesday's Fed-driven fall below 1.15 accounted for much of the weekly decline.

The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, while its 4.1% median projection for end-2026 implies another quarter-point increase.

Image: EUR to USD performance chart over last week ECB tightening could slow the Euro's decline ING sees scope for higher short-term US yields to support the Dollar, particularly if incoming data and energy prices encourage markets to price an October hike.

However, it also highlights hawkish ECB commentary as a reason for caution:

"This is one reason not to chase EUR/USD lower too aggressively from current levels."

Its 1.1400 view is a near-term downside risk, with Friday's assessment also allowing for stabilisation.

Crédit Agricole shares that qualified bearish stance:

"We are moderately bearish on EUR/USD from current levels because we expect additional ECB tightening to limit the downside risks to a degree in the coming months."

The bank argues that expensive energy, weaker international competitiveness and renewed sovereign credit concerns weigh on European assets, even with the economy proving resilient.

It forecasts 1.14 in June 2027, 1.16 in September and 1.17 in December, following its December 2026 and March 2027 forecasts of 1.13.

The immediate test is whether cheaper oil can loosen the Dollar's grip before those longer-term recovery forecasts come into view.

ING noted on Friday that cheaper oil had slowed the Dollar's post-Fed advance, but doubted that prospective talks between President Trump and Gulf leaders would deliver sufficient relief:

"Even so, we do not see these developments as enough to take Brent back below $100/bbl at this stage."

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot Silver settled higher for a second session on Friday, but off its high. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart, however, the minor trend turned up on Thursday, leading to a change in momentum to the upside. Supporting the upward momentum is the close over the 50-day moving average at $62.97.

A trade through the swing bottom at $62.31 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend will turn up on a trade through the September 9 main top at $68.33.

The intermediate range is $54.78 to $71.18. Its retracement zone at $62.98 to $61.04 is support. The zone, especially the upper or 50% level at $62.98, has been tested several times over the past six sessions, including the new swing bottom at $62.31 on September 16.

Two short-term ranges have formed between $68.33 and $62.31 and between $71.18 and $62.31. They created 50% levels at $65.32 and $66.75, respectively. On Friday, the market surged through both 50% levels to $67.34 before backing down.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecasts

The Dollar Controlled the Morning and Then Lost It

They waited for it to stop getting worse. The dollar’s inability to extend Friday’s early high was all they needed. The bears who were pressing silver below $65.50 in the morning spent the afternoon watching the trade move against them while every macro argument they had was still technically intact.

What to Watch The dollar is the only screen that matters for silver right now. A sustained push above Friday’s 100.564 high puts the pressure back on the metal and tests whether buyers will defend the ground they gained. Another failure to extend the dollar rally and silver has room to build on Friday’s move toward $67.34 and the main top at $68.33.

The bias has shifted to the upside with the minor trend change and silver trading above the 50-day moving average at $62.97. The counter-trend rally is real and it cleared both 50% levels at $65.32 and $66.75 on Friday before pulling back. A sustained hold above $66.75 strengthens the case for a run at $68.33 and that is the level where the main trend changes to up and the entire post-Fed selloff is officially reversed.

On the downside, $65.32 is where the momentum weakens. A break through it opens a correction back to the support cluster at $62.98 to $62.97. That zone has held every test for six sessions. Losing it changes the conversation entirely with $61.04 to $60.83 as the next target and the two-day rally reclassified as short covering that ran out of buyers.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

A hawkish Federal Reserve and a tough hawkish bar for the Bank of Japan to clear helped USD/JPY post its largest weekly advance since October 2025, sending the pair more than five big figures off the lows tagged earlier this month.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Bulls eye 0.7200 after 0.7100 break

Gold confirms a falling-wedge breakout as a higher swing low supports renewed upside, with Fibonacci and ABCD targets converging near $4,966–$4,973.

Wedge Breakout Gains Confirmation Gold extended its short-term advance on Friday, reaching a five-day high of $4,400 and testing resistance near a trendline. A higher daily low of $4,334 was established, successfully testing support at both the former downtrend line, which now marks the upper boundary of a small falling bullish wedge pattern, and the 10-day moving average. An initial bullish breakout of the wedge occurred on Thursday, but it was not confirmed by a daily close above the upper boundary. Friday’s close is set to provide confirmation, suggesting the breakout is becoming more established.

Spot gold daily chart shows bullish confirmation of wedge breakout. Source: TradingView Higher Low Signals Next Leg A successful breakout of the falling wedge has the potential to generate strong bullish momentum. Friday’s test of the former resistance line and 10-day moving average as support provides further evidence of buyers regaining control. The breakout suggests the completion of the recent pullback and establishment of a higher swing low, which is bullish. In turn, this points to the likely beginning of the next leg higher in the developing advance that started from the July low of $3,959 (A).

Spot gold daily chart shows large trend structure. Source: TradingView ABCD Symmetry Points Toward $4,973 With a higher swing low established, a rising ABCD pattern is added to the chart to estimate a possible upside target defined by price symmetry. Such symmetry commonly marks a potential pivot level. For gold, that level is near $4,973, reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,966. The confluence of the two indicators adds to the significance of the resistance zone and therefore the potential for it to be tested before the larger advance continues into its second leg.

Rising Channel Defines Potential Path This week’s higher swing low also provides a second anchor for a rising channel, which shows potential upper dynamic resistance and lower support for the developing advance. The channel midline can also serve as a key potential pivot level. Notably, the initial 100% projection for the ABCD pattern may be reached while gold remains within the rising channel, providing a technical framework for the potential advance toward the $4,973 target zone.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, Bruce is a seasoned finance MBA and CMT® charter holder. Having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and a corporate advisor for trading firms, Bruce shares his expertise in futures to retail investors, providing actionable insights through both technical and fundamental analyses.

Latest news and analysis

United States CFTC Gold NC Net Positions down to $230.3K from previous $232K

Gold vs Silver 2026: Why i'm buying this dip, not trading it [Video]

Silver holds its 50-week EMA after a positive week, but $70 resistance continues to cap the range.

Gold reclaims its footing as Oil retreat blunts Fed shock