Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The pound just closed its strongest week against the dollar in months, ending July up more than 1% and holding just below $1.35. Two factors are driving the move. First, political risk has faded: the UK appointed its seventh prime minister in a decade, and the new government’s pledge of fiscal discipline has reassured markets. Second, the Bank of England surprised with a more hawkish tone than expected—policymakers voted 6-3 to hold rates steady, but three members pushed for a hike, a stronger signal of resolve than markets had priced in.

The dollar, meanwhile, has had a rough few sessions. Following the Fed’s decision to hold rates for a fifth consecutive meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the path ahead, leaving investors questioning whether the central bank is doing enough to bring inflation back to target. The dollar index posted its worst weekly performance in three months as a result, though roughly two-thirds of the market still expects a September hike.

With both central banks striking cautiously hawkish tones but offering little forward guidance, GBP/USD’s next move looks set to hinge on incoming US labor data.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD

As the GBP/USD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since January’s highs, with price now converging near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement around 1.3427, exactly where the two trendlines meet. This narrowing structure suggests a decisive breakout may be approaching after months of range-bound trading.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers push through the descending trendline and reclaim the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near 1.3510, the path would open toward the 0.618 level around 1.3594, with a stronger move potentially targeting the 1.3865 highs from January if fundamental momentum aligns.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline would expose the 1.3200 support zone, with a more significant breakdown risking a retest of the 1.3155 low that anchored this entire triangle formation.

With price coiled right at the apex of this multi-month triangle, and both the Fed and incoming labor data serving as potential catalysts, GBP/USD looks primed for its next major directional move—will the pound extend its recent strength, or is the dollar poised for a comeback?

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USD/JPY trades around 157.95 on Tuesday at the time of writing, up 0.49% on the day. After the Japanese Yen's (JPY) sharp rebound driven by coordinated intervention from Japanese and US authorities in the foreign exchange market last week, investors are gradually shifting their focus back to underlying fundamentals, allowing the US Dollar (USD) to recover part of its recent losses.

Japan's Ministry of Finance confirmed that Tokyo and Washington conducted coordinated intervention to support the Japanese currency. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said authorities would not hesitate to intervene again if necessary. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that Washington remains prepared to cooperate in future interventions, while US President Donald Trump described the move as "a signal of friendship." According to Bloomberg, Japan is estimated to have spent around $34 billion on last week's intervention.

However, market attention is now turning toward Japan's fiscal outlook. The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has backed a proposal to temporarily reduce the food consumption tax from 8% to 1% starting in April 2027, alongside roughly ¥600 billion in annual cash transfers for low- and middle-income households. The lack of a clearly defined funding mechanism has raised investor concerns, putting renewed pressure on the Japanese Yen.

Meanwhile, the interest rate differential continues to limit the Japanese currency's upside potential. Although the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its policy rate to 1% in June, borrowing costs remain well below those of other major economies, continuing to support carry trades and providing an additional tailwind for USD/JPY.

Investors are also monitoring geopolitical developments in the Middle East. While tensions between the United States (US) and Iran appear to have eased temporarily, conflicting statements from both sides continue to encourage a cautious market mood.

Attention now turns to US labor market data, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) due later on Tuesday ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Economists expect the US economy to have added 83K jobs in July after 57K in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to rise to 4.3% from 4.2%. Stronger-than-expected figures could reinforce expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in September, providing additional support for the US Dollar.

Yen support seen as temporary with USDJPY downside limitedAnalysts at MUFG note that the Yen has "weakened modestly during the Asian trading session," pushing USD/JPY "back up to within touching distance of the 200-day moving average at around 158.00 after hitting a low yesterday at 157.18." On the policy front, MUFG expects "US intervention to support the yen to remain relatively small in scale," and while they acknowledge that "joint intervention may prove more effective at helping to provide support for the yen in the near-term, we still believe that it can only buy time." In their view, "there will need to be a change in fundamentals as well to encourage a sustainable reversal of the yen weakening trend that has been in place over the last five years," with "more US pressure on Japan to allow a faster pace of BoJ policy normalization as part of the joint intervention arrangement" described as "an important step to help reverse yen weakness."

TD Securities takes a similar line on the durability of any downside move, arguing that "momentum could briefly push USDJPY lower to 153, but we do not expect the pair sustainably trading below it, absent BoJ and full US Treasury commitment." They stress that, "absent prolonged direct US involvement and more hawkish BoJ monetary policy, the combination of valuation, positioning, and trend-following modeling would suggest limited short-term USDJPY downside to 153.00," and reiterate that "in the absence of more hawkish BoJ monetary policy and prolonged direct US involvement to intervene JPY, the combination of valuation, positioning, and trend-following would suggest limited short-term USDJPY downside to 153.00, in our view." Their trend-following signals show that "USDJPY trend turned from uptrend to neutral, but it is not yet in downtrend," and, consistent with that assessment, TD Securities says, "for now, we maintain our year-end forecast of 159.00 for USDJPY."

USD/JPY technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, USD/JPY trades at 157.88, maintaining a capped tone as it holds below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 159.85 and the 200-period SMA at 161.78. The pair is edging higher above the broken rising trend-line reference at 157.72 and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 157.30, yet the broader setup suggests rallies remain vulnerable while these key averages stay overhead, even as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.22 hints at moderately constructive short-term momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% retracement at 158.58, followed by a more meaningful barrier at the 50.0% level at 159.61, just ahead of the 100-period SMA at 159.85. Further up, the 61.8% retracement at 160.64 and the 200-period SMA at 161.78 converge with the 78.6% level at 162.12 to define a dense supply zone. On the downside, immediate support is seen around the 157.72 trend-line break area, with the 23.6% retracement at 157.30 underpinning the move; a deeper slide would expose the Fibonacci anchor near 155.23 as the next significant floor.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/CHF Price Forecast: Dollar, capped at 0.8100, hints at a potential “H&S” pattern

TL;DR: GBP/CAD looks ready to resume its uptrend after rebounding from the 55-day EMA, but a sustained breakout depends on two separate forces — Friday’s volatile Canadian jobs report and whether oil’s renewed strength above $86 continues to support the Canadian Dollar.

Why the Correction May Already Be Over After nearly a month of consolidation, GBP/CAD is showing signs that its broader uptrend may be ready to resume. The pair has rebounded convincingly after holding the 55-day EMA, suggesting the pullback from 1.9042 was a healthy correction rather than a change in trend. A retest of the July high now looks likely. Whether GBP/CAD can convert that into a sustained breakout, however, will depend on two very different forces: this week’s Canadian labor market data and the direction of oil prices.

Force One: The Scheduled Risk — A Volatile Canadian Jobs Report The first is the easier of the two to assess. Canada’s July employment report is expected to show job growth of 15k, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 6.5%. Those numbers would broadly indicate a labor market that remains stable despite slowing economic momentum. Yet recent history suggests caution — Canada’s employment data have repeatedly produced large surprises this year, swinging from an unexpected -18k decline in April to an 88k surge in May, before moderating to 18k in June. That volatility means another downside surprise cannot be dismissed.

A softer employment report would likely weaken the Canadian Dollar by reinforcing the Bank of Canada’s patient policy stance. The BoC has kept rates unchanged for five consecutive meetings since its October 2025 rate cut, repeatedly signaling it’s prepared to look through temporary inflation shocks as long as underlying price pressures remain contained. Weak labor market data would support that approach by reducing the urgency for any policy tightening — and could provide the catalyst for GBP/CAD to revisit 1.9042.

Force Two: The Unscheduled Risk — Oil’s Renewed Grip on the Canadian Dollar The bigger challenge lies beyond Friday’s data. The main reason GBP/CAD lost momentum after reaching 1.9042 in early July was the sharp reversal in oil prices. Brent crude had bottomed near $70 before surging above $100 following the collapse of the 60-day US-Iran ceasefire, restoring strong support for the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar and forcing GBP/CAD into a month-long consolidation.

The pair’s rebound from 1.8709 has coincided with Brent’s retreat from above $100 to around $80, which eased some of that support for the Canadian Dollar. But oil has since recovered above $86 as geopolitical tensions remain unresolved, once again acting as a headwind for Sterling. The current advance in GBP/CAD therefore looks less constrained by Canadian domestic fundamentals than by the renewed resilience of crude prices.

Why the Geopolitical Backdrop Hasn’t Actually Changed The geopolitical backdrop has changed little despite alternating headlines from Washington and Tehran. President Donald Trump has shifted from projecting confidence in imminent negotiations to warning that Iran faces a “last chance,” while Tehran continues to insist there are no immediate plans for direct talks with the United States, limiting engagement to Oman’s mediation over the Strait of Hormuz. The fundamental disagreement over the future of the waterway remains unresolved, leaving markets reluctant to remove the geopolitical premium embedded in oil prices.

That distinction is important. A weak Canadian employment report may be enough to propel GBP/CAD back toward 1.9042, but it’s unlikely to be sufficient for a sustained breakout if Brent remains elevated. For Sterling bulls, Friday’s jobs report could provide the trigger — but whether the rally extends beyond the July high will depend far more on whether oil prices retreat again, which in turn requires credible progress toward renewed US-Iran negotiations rather than another round of conflicting political statements.

ActionForex’s Technical View on GBP/CAD The technical outlook reflects that balance between constructive momentum and lingering macro risks. GBP/CAD remains firmly within the rising channel from 1.8017, and this week’s rebound from the 55-day EMA, now around 1.8716, strengthens the case that the correction ended at 1.8709. A break above 1.9042 would open the way toward the 61.8% projection of 1.8299 to 1.9042 from 1.8709, at 1.9168, in the near term.

However, rejection by 1.9042 will set up another leg to extend the corrective pattern, with risk of a deeper fall through 1.8709. In that case, strong support should be seen from the rising channel floor, now at 1.8617, to bring a rebound.

Key Takeaways GBP/CAD’s rebound from the 55-day EMA suggests the pullback from 1.9042 was a correction, not a trend change, with a retest of the July high likely. Canada’s July jobs report (consensus: 15k job growth, 6.5% unemployment) carries elevated surprise risk given three large misses already this year. A weak jobs print could push GBP/CAD back toward 1.9042, but a sustained breakout depends more on oil, which has recovered above $86 after briefly easing from $100. The US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved despite shifting rhetoric, keeping a geopolitical premium embedded in oil and a headwind on Sterling. 1.9042 is the key resistance; a break opens 1.9168, while rejection risks a deeper pullback toward 1.8709, with the rising channel floor at 1.8617 as the next support.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The Euro (EUR) trades with caution at around Monday’s low of 1.1500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair is expected to remain volatile as investors await key United States (US) economic release this week to get meaningful cues regarding the interest rate outlook.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto Monday’s gains at around 100.00.

Investors will pay close attention to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. The impact of the US official employment data will be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook, as the central bank has suspended delivering so called “forward guidance” on interest rates from the June policy meeting.

Later in the day, the US JOLTS Job Openings data for June is scheduled to be published at 14:00 GMT. US employers are expected to have posted 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.

On the Eurozone front, traders seem increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates in the September policy meeting. Analysts at Deutsche Bank have said in a report that the ECB September hike pricing is around 90%.

EUR/USD trades cautiously at around 1.1500 at press time. The pair holds a modest bullish near-term bias as price advances above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1451, suggesting underlying demand after reclaiming that short-term trend reference.

The Relative Strength Index (14) at 59.1 stays below overbought territory yet leans higher, hinting that buying pressure remains constructive while not stretched.

On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the downward-sloping trend-line break level at 1.1555, which caps further gains and marks the next hurdle of 1.1600 for bulls; above that, the pair would extend its upside journey towards the May 29 high at 1.1686. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-period EMA at 1.1451; a daily close back below this floor would weaken the current positive tone and expose the pair to the July 28 high at 1.1353.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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HomeTechnical AnalysisUSD/JPY –04.08.2026

The yen gave back some of its recent advance that was triggered by US and Japanese intervention.

As we see over the chart, we may see wide range of trading first between 155.00 and resistance 158.05 while market demanding farther rebound

As long as market kept trades below 160.85 the drop scenario may back

While bank of Japan starts the Intervention this time while the peak was around 163.97 which will sustain as resistance

If Yen back to retreat again Market may expect another Intervention

SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 155.00 158.05 LEVEL2 152.10-30 160.85 LEVEL3 145.00 163.80 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.

The US Dollar has managed to find a floor thanks to strong business activity data in the manufacturing sector and a resurgence of market interest in artificial intelligence. The S&P 500 has approached a record high, with the three-day increase in the market capitalisation of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ proving to be the largest in history. Along with the resurgence of the AI boom, the theme of American exceptionalism has also returned.

Markets continue to discuss Kevin Warsh’s reforms. The Fed Chair wants rising Treasury yields to tighten financial conditions and curb inflation. Investors see that the central bank is in no hurry to raise rates and are increasing the risk premiums on Treasuries. Yields are rising. The Fed’s passivity is weakening the US dollar.

However, other FOMC members may not support the restructuring initiated by Kevin Warsh. John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, noted that monetary policy is in the right place. But this is only because inflation is behaving as expected. If its behaviour changes, the central bank will be forced to make adjustments.

The uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s new approaches is affecting not only the dollar and Treasury yields, but also gold, which is closely linked to them. For the first time since February, the precious metal has closed the month in positive territory and is finding support in the de-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Although Iran maintains that it is not in talks with the US, it has noted progress in its dialogue with Oman regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. This reduces the risks of rising oil prices and accelerating inflation. If this is the case, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy should decrease.

Gold is finding support in Asia. Capital inflows into Chinese ETFs have now continued for the 14th consecutive day, as institutional investors snap up the precious metal as it approaches the psychologically significant level of $4,000 per ounce. Goldman Sachs believes that increased central bank buying of bullion is offsetting the negative impact of geopolitical tensions and rumours of a Fed rate hike. Citi forecasts that XAUUSD may stabilise at current levels or even fall. However, in the fourth quarter, gold is expected to return to the $4,500 mark.

Summary: Gold is consolidating near $4,000 as Fed uncertainty and strong Chinese demand provide support, with Citi forecasting a potential rally towards $4,500 later this year. 

It is rare that we see a Triple Top play out in the markets. I've always worked on the old adage that doubles hold, triples rarely do. However, in this instance, it has.

Obviously, BOJ intervention helped accelerate the move, but it didnt create it, The chart had already warned us it was coming.. Anyone who believes the BOJ doesn't employ Technical Chartists needs to think again. During my years at Nomura, liaising with the BOJ told a very different story. That's precisely why pattern recognition remains one of the most important disciplines in today's markets.

So, what now? Correction or Reversal?

The weekly charts still suggest this is a correction rather than a full-blown reversal. However, there is a major area of technical resistance that now has to be overcome.

23.6% Fibonacci retracement: 195.40.

Weekly Pivot: 196.44.

Previous congestion: 195.00–196.00.

This area needs to be reclaimed before the downside bias evident on the daily charts can be removed.

I would have expected the 200-day Moving Average to at least hold the first test, but price sliced straight through it without giving it a second thought. That tells me the move was driven more by panic and forced liquidation than orderly selling.

For me, 195.40 is the line in the sand.

The market needs to close above this level before Friday if it is to relieve the immediate downside pressure. Until then, I don't think traders should be chasing the downside, but equally I wouldn't be rushing to buy.

Whatever your view, one thing is clear from both the daily and weekly charts. The technical pattern was already in place before the BOJ intervened. The intervention accelerated the move, but it didn't create it. That's precisely why pattern recognition remains one of the most important disciplines in today's markets.

If you were already short before the intervention, congratulations. The panic simply accelerated the trade. But I would resist the temptation to chase prices lower at these levels. I'd rather wait and see whether the market can reclaim 195.40. A sustained move back above that level would remove much of the immediate downside pressure, although there would still be considerable work to do before I could confidently say CHF/JPY is out of the woods.

Finally, once the BOJ has intervened—even after the yen had weakened to levels not seen for decades—it plants a seed of uncertainty in every trader's mind. From now on, every sharp move in USD/JPY or CHF/JPY will carry the question:

"Will the BOJ step in again?"

Markets have a habit of pricing in bad news before the headlines arrive. The charts don't predict the news—they reflect the changing behaviour of market participants before most people recognise what's happening. That's why I've trusted price action for over four decades, and last week CHF/JPY has reminded us why.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes GBP/USD reversed after an overbought spike to 1.3506, closing lower at 1.3434. The strategist sees scope for the pullback to extend but mainly within a 1.3400–1.3475 range, with a sustained drop below 1.3400 unlikely. Over 1–3 weeks, strong momentum still suggests upside, though odds of a break above 1.3555 have diminished.

Overbought rally gives way to range"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that the sharp rise in GBP from last Friday “has scope to extend,” we pointed out that “overbought conditions could limit any gains to a test of 1.3520.” We were also of the view that “the major resistance at 1.3555 is not expected to come into view.” However, after popping to a high of 1.3506 on the open, GBP pulled back to a low of 1.3418. GBP closed 0.35% lower at 1.3434. This time around, the pullback has scope to extend, but given that there has been no clear increase in downward momentum, any decline is likely part of a lower range of 1.3400/1.3475. In other words, a sustained drop below 1.3400 is unlikely."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: GBP rose sharply last week. Yesterday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that “while strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the significant resistance at 1.3555.” We added, “to sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 1.3385.” While we continue to hold the same view, after the subsequent pullback, the odds of GBP rising to 1.3555 have diminished."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold – Chart Gold is trading around $4,057. After a prolonged period of consolidation, Gold is continuing to trade within a symmetrical triangle with long-term ascending trendline support and resistance that is forming with a down-sloping trendline. The price is currently caught between the 50-EMA at $4,059 and the 100-EMA at $4,067. This indicates that the price is highly likely to breakout in one direction or another.

Should the price break to the upside, the first resistance level is expected at $4,067, while the trendline resistance is found at $4,115. A break above this area would be an official breakout of the consolidation and target $4,148. Should the price break to the downside, bullish trendline support and demand zone convergence (the area where price has been bought the most) is located at $3,999. A break of this price would invalidate the bullish structure and target $3,969.

The RSI is currently at the 50 level indicating indecision is present in the market. With Gold being in a consolidation phase, the breakout from the current triangle is expected to have a strong influence on the overall market direction for the mid-term.

Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Pressures Triangle Resistance as Bulls Build Momentum

Silver (XAG/USD) accelerates its recovery on Tuesday, reaching session highs above $59.00 at the time of writing, after bouncing from the $56.50 area on Monday. Investors’ hopes of a negotiated end to Iran’s war are providing a mild appetite for risk, and buoying precious metals, although the US Dollar Index (USD) has picked up from lows, which might keep a lid on Silver’s rally.

US President Donald Trump affirmed on Monday that this is the “last chance” for Iran to sign a good peace deal with the United States, but Tehran has denied any talks with the US or plans to hold them. Meanwhile, sea traffic through the Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb Straits remains at very low levels, and reports of an attack on a cargo vessel off the coast of Oman complicate matters further. 

Technical Analysis: Silver appreciates within range

XAG/USD trades at $59.01, maintaining a mildly bullish near-term bias with momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart turning positive. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering near 58, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has crossed above the zero line, suggesting that buyers are taking control.

Price action, however, remains within the mid-ranges of the last four weeks' horizontal channel. Bulls are likely to meet significant resistance at the $59.30 area (July 29, 30 highs) and at the $60.75-$60.90 area (July 10, 22 highs) ahead of the key resistance at the July 6 high of 63.28

On the downside, immediate support is at the $56.50 area, which capped bears last week. A bearish reaction below that level would expose the key support at the mid-July lows of $54.77.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

TL;DR: With markets already convinced the RBA is done hiking, tomorrow’s New Zealand employment report matters less for whether the RBNZ turns more hawkish and more for whether the labor market stays resilient enough to keep its tightening bias intact — a dynamic already pressuring AUD/NZD lower.

Why the Focus Has Shifted Across the Tasman Markets have already reached a broad consensus that the Reserve Bank of Australia has finished tightening for this year. The focus is now shifting across the Tasman, where the Reserve Bank of New Zealand still appears to have work left to do. That makes tomorrow’s second-quarter employment report less about whether the RBNZ will turn more hawkish, and more about whether the labor market is resilient enough to keep its existing tightening bias intact.

Inflation Already Made the Case for More Tightening The case for further tightening was largely established by inflation. New Zealand’s second-quarter CPI rose 4.1% y/y, exceeding the RBNZ’s 3.9% forecast and reminding policymakers that price pressures remain more persistent than expected. More importantly, non-tradable inflation held at an elevated 3.4%, indicating domestic inflation — not just higher fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict — continues to pose a challenge.

Stronger business sentiment since then has only reinforced that picture, with July’s ANZ Business Confidence jumping to 56.1 from 36.6.

Why Tomorrow’s Data Doesn’t Need to Surprise Against that backdrop, tomorrow’s labor market data don’t need to surprise on the upside to support the policy outlook. Consensus forecasts call for:

Employment growth of 0.1% q/q. Unemployment edging up from 5.3% to 5.4%. The Labour Cost Index accelerating from 0.5% to 0.6% q/q. Those figures are broadly consistent with the RBNZ’s own projections, meaning an in-line report would leave the Bank’s economic assessment largely intact. Instead of weakening the tightening narrative, it would reinforce the view that policy still needs to move somewhat further into restrictive territory to contain domestic inflation and limit second-round effects from higher energy prices.

What Would Actually Move Markets The bigger market reaction would likely come from a stronger-than-expected report. Faster employment growth, firmer wage inflation, or a lower unemployment rate would strengthen the case for another hike as early as September, and increase expectations that the Official Cash Rate ultimately reaches the upper end of the 2.75%–3.00% range currently expected by many economists. Only a materially weaker labor market would cast meaningful doubt on that outlook, by suggesting higher borrowing costs are beginning to bite more sharply than anticipated.

Why This Matters for AUD/NZD Those shifting policy expectations have become important for AUD/NZD. Australia’s softer-than-expected second-quarter CPI has persuaded markets the RBA is likely to keep the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% through year-end, effectively ending a period in which Australian rate expectations consistently outpaced those in New Zealand. With the RBA sidelined, investors are now watching whether the RBNZ can narrow the policy differential through further tightening, providing fundamental support for the New Zealand Dollar against its Australian counterpart.

ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/NZD The technical picture complements the macro story. AUD/NZD’s decline from 1.2283 continues to look like a correction of the five-wave advance from 1.0649. As long as 1.2119 resistance caps rebounds, the bias remains lower. The next downside objective remains the 38.2% retracement at 1.1658, which sits just above the previous fourth-wave consolidation around 1.1412–1.1634.

Against a backdrop of narrowing policy differentials, tomorrow’s New Zealand labor market report has the potential to provide the catalyst for the next leg lower in AUD/NZD.

Key Takeaways New Zealand’s Q2 CPI beat the RBNZ’s own forecast at 4.1% y/y, with sticky non-tradable inflation at 3.4% keeping the tightening bias intact. Consensus expects tomorrow’s employment data to come in broadly in line with RBNZ projections, meaning an in-line print alone would reinforce, not weaken, the hawkish case. A stronger-than-expected report would raise September hike odds and support an Official Cash Rate move toward the top of the 2.75%-3.00% range. Australia’s softer CPI has convinced markets the RBA is done hiking, shifting the AUD/NZD policy narrative fully toward the RBNZ’s next move. AUD/NZD’s decline from 1.2283 remains capped below 1.2119 resistance, with 1.1658 the next downside objective if the labor data supports further RBNZ tightening.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

I am already riding a EURUSD sell entry. I posted the sell July 30 2026 on social media @AidanFX : “EURUSD Sold at 1.1531 Stop Loss at 1.1616 Target at 1.1361” and expecting a move lower.

EURUSD Daily Chart July 30 2026

A trader should always have multiple strategies all lined up before entering a trade. Never trade off one simple strategy. When multiple strategies all line up it allows a trader to see a clearer trade setup. We at EWF never say we are always right. No market service provider can forecast markets with 100% accuracy. Only thing we at EWF 100%, is that we are RIGHT more than we are WRONG.

Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade.  Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on social media for updates and questions> @AidanFX

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Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 490.57 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 489.68 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,721.92 per tola from SAR 5,711.58 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

490.57

10 Grams

4,906.14

Tola

5,721.92

Troy Ounce

15,258.13

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 479.85 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 478.82 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold increased to AED 5,596.89 per tola from AED 5,584.90 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

479.85

10 Grams

4,798.51

Tola

5,596.89

Troy Ounce

14,924.97

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 534.47 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 533.86 it cost on Monday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,233.89 per tola from MYR 6,226.81 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

534.47

10 Grams

5,344.69

Tola

6,233.89

Troy Ounce

16,623.71

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses during the Asian session on Tuesday as traders seem hesitant and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. The US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on the previous day's solid bounce from the lowest level since Mid-June and acts as a tailwind for the bullion. However, the uncertainty over US-Iran peace talks helps limit the downside for the buck. Furthermore, recovering crude oil prices keep inflation risks and US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets on the table, capping the non-yielding yellow metal.

On Monday, Iran denied that any negotiations were taking place with the US, sparking an angry backlash from President Donald Trump, who had cited the resumption of bilateral talks as justification for calling off attacks over the weekend. Moreover, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has reportedly attacked a US military base in Kuwait with at least three drones. This, in turn, tempers hopes for a diplomatic resolution to end a five-month-old US-Iran war, prompting traders to price in the geopolitical risk premium and supporting the safe-haven Greenback.

Meanwhile, a senior adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader, Mohsen Rezaee, dismissed Trump's claims that the Strait of Hormuz is on course to reopen. Rezaee further warned that Iran will not permit any unauthorised shipping route through the critical waterway other than the one designated by the Islamic Republic and that Tehran would target US warships for that purpose. This comes on top of the Iran-backed Houthi rebels' naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and fuel concerns regarding global energy supplies, helping oil prices to recover a part of the previous day's losses.

Investors remain worried that elevated energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures and force the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently assigning over a 60% probability that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in September and see over an 85% chance of a hike by the end of this year. The bets were reaffirmed by the US ISM PMI released on Monday, which showed that US manufacturing sector activity increased to the highest level in more than four years in July. This further favors USD bulls.

Traders, however, might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The crucial data will be looked for more cues about the Fed's policy path, which, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Nevertheless, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for the bullion is to the downside.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical Analysis: Gold bears not ready to give up yet; $4,000 holds the key within a familiar rangeFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair holds well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and keeps a bearish near-term bias within a familiar range held over the past month or so. Moreover, the range-bound price action might still be categorized as a bearish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the recent decline, reaffirming the negative outlook for the Gold price.

Meanwhile, momentum indicators are not yet supportive of a clear recovery. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory with a modestly positive histogram, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 46.48 hovers just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lacklustre buying interest. This, in turn, suggests that bounces are likely to be capped by overhead supply.

The top boundary of the trading range, pegged ahead of the $4,200 mark, might continue to act as an immediate hurdle. A move beyond could lift Gold to the 200-day SMA near $4,490.33. Bulls would need to reclaim a technically significant barrier to alleviate the prevailing downside bias and reopen the path toward higher highs.

On the downside, immediate support is inferred from recent swing lows around the $3,976–$4,000 region, where buyers previously emerged. A daily close below would be seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders and turn the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to declining further in the absence of clearly defined floors under the said handle.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) trades lower against its major currency peers on Tuesday after a rare juggernaut outperformance in the last few trading days. In the Asian session, the Japanese currency is down 0.25% to near 157.60 against the US Dollar (USD).

Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.00%0.07%0.27%-0.01%-0.25%0.12%-0.02%EUR0.00%0.06%0.29%-0.02%-0.27%0.10%-0.01%GBP-0.07%-0.06%0.23%-0.07%-0.32%0.05%-0.07%JPY-0.27%-0.29%-0.23%-0.29%-0.53%-0.19%-0.18%CAD0.00%0.02%0.07%0.29%-0.24%0.11%0.00%AUD0.25%0.27%0.32%0.53%0.24%0.36%0.25%NZD-0.12%-0.10%-0.05%0.19%-0.11%-0.36%-0.10%CHF0.02%0.00%0.07%0.18%-0.00%-0.25%0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

The Asia-Pacific currency outperformed due to rare joint intervention by the United States (US) and Japan to support the Yen.

Japan and US step in as Yen hits weakest level since 1986BNY notes that Japan’s finance ministry and the US Treasury have moved to shore up the Yen, jointly intervening in the foreign exchange market after the currency fell to its lowest level against the Dollar since 1986. Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said the coordinated action was aimed at countering “excessive volatility and disorderly movements in recent months.” She underscored that Tokyo “would not hesitate to carry out further joint intervention if needed,” signaling that the authorities remain ready to defend the currency should renewed pressure emerge.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) holds onto its Monday’s recovery move, with investors awaiting key US economic data, notably the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), releasing this week. As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near 100.00.

In Tuesday’s session, investors will focus on the JOLTS Job Openings data for June, which will be published at 14:00 GMT. The US economy is expected to have posted 7.45 million fresh jobs, slightly lower than 7.594 million in May.

USD/JPY technical outlook

USD/JPY trades at around 157.58 at press time, retaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds well below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 161.14. The chart structure of the pair reflects a Head and Shoulders pattern in the making, whose right shoulder is yet to be formed, likely near 160.00, suggesting a respite is highly likely after a juggernaut fall.

The pair has retreated from recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 26.90 sits in oversold territory, which hints that downside momentum is stretched but does not yet show a clear reversal signal.

Going forward, a "Sell on Rise" strategy appears optimal in these conditions, and the round level of 160.00 would be a key barrier. After that, the pair might retest the neckline at around 155.10.

On the contrary, the pair would regain a bullish bias if it manages to extend the recovery above the July 16 low near 162.00. The pair would aim to revisit the multi-decade high at around 164.00 if it manages to break above 162.00.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

EUR/JPY gains ground after three days of losses, trading around 181.50 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency cross is maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The EUR/JPY cross is retreating away from recent highs, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 32.97 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still dominant but nearing stretched conditions.

The EUR/JPY cross may retest the initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3. Further support lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the nine-day EMA at 183.62, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.90. Further advances above these moving averages would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

Yen positioning seen shifting after Japan-US interventionStrategists at Rabobank highlight that "JPY net shorts had climbed to their highest levels since 2024 last week," just before the "concerted intervention from the MoF and the US Treasury to stem the weakness in the JPY." The bank argues that this official action "suggests that positioning is likely to be sharply changed in the next data release," but cautions that "it is too early to assess whether Japan’s fundamentals have strengthened sufficiently to allow the JPY to hold better levels vs. the USD in the spot market over the medium-term."

(The story was corrected on August 4 at 03:45 GMT to say in the title that EUR/JPY rebounds from eight-month lows and not highs.)

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%0.03%0.24%-0.04%-0.32%0.03%-0.08%EUR0.04%0.05%0.29%-0.00%-0.29%0.05%-0.03%GBP-0.03%-0.05%0.23%-0.05%-0.33%0.00%-0.08%JPY-0.24%-0.29%-0.23%-0.27%-0.55%-0.23%-0.19%CAD0.04%0.00%0.05%0.27%-0.28%0.06%-0.03%AUD0.32%0.29%0.33%0.55%0.28%0.34%0.25%NZD-0.03%-0.05%-0.01%0.23%-0.06%-0.34%-0.08%CHF0.08%0.03%0.08%0.19%0.03%-0.25%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $58.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver prices are receiving support as non-yielding assets benefit from geopolitical and economic monitoring.

Investors are closely tracking developments in United States (US)-Iran talks for signals regarding the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, while simultaneously evaluating the broader outlook for US Federal Reserve monetary policy.

Diplomatic tensions remain high after US President Donald Trump described his latest offer of discussions as a "last chance" for Iran, following his decision to call off a major military strike. Trump expressed expectations that formal negotiations would begin shortly to secure the Strait of Hormuz and address long-standing US concerns over Iran's nuclear program.

However, Iranian leadership quickly dismissed the proposal. General Mohsen Rezaei, an advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader, firmly rejected the conditions, declaring that Iran will absolutely not permit a second corridor in the Strait. He further warned that any foreign warships or military forces deployed for that purpose would be targeted.

On the monetary policy front, market participants continue to recalibrate their expectations following the central bank's decision to hold interest rates steady in July. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently pricing in approximately a 65% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's upcoming September meeting.

Williams reiterates confidence in Fed path as markets weigh inflation risksFed’s Williams delivers a moderately hawkish message, with a 6/10 FXS Speechtracker score slightly above the 5.8/10 historical average, underscoring confidence that current rate policy is “well positioned” to achieve the 2% inflation goal. The repeated commitment to act if inflation drifts off the 2% path, alongside optimism that price pressures will gradually ease and that the Middle East war’s inflation impact will cool, signals a steady-hawk stance rather than an aggressive tightening bias. Acknowledgment of market pricing as “valuable information” but not binding, and the dismissal of financial stability risks from AI investment, reinforces a message of policy patience within a firmly anti-inflation framework.

The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.47 points to 146.76, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness even as the index remains deep in hawkish territory above the 100 neutral line. This suggests that, despite the slightly stronger-than-baseline tone captured by the FXS Speechtracker, markets see Williams’ remarks as consistent with an already well-telegraphed Fed stance rather than a fresh hawkish escalation.

FXS Fed Sentiment Index: Daily Chart

GBPJPY: ⬆️ Buy

– GBPJPY reversed from support zone

– Likely to rise to resistance level 212.35

GBPJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the key support level 210.00 (which has been reversing the price from March) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.

The upward reversal from the support level 210.00 stopped the previous sharp downward impulse wave C.

Given the strength of the support level 210.00 and the oversold daily Stochastic and RSI, GBPJPY currency pair can be expected to further to the next resistance level 212.35.

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The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7917 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7898 and 6.7595 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

The USD/CHF rises by about 0.27% on Monday as traders buy the Greenback following an intervention in FX markets by US and Japanese authorities. Better-than-expected US economic data, a “halt” in hostilities between the US and Iran, provided a tailwind for the American currency, which so far trades at 0.8100 against the Swiss Franc, after bouncing off daily lows of 0.8056.

Overall, the technical picture remains constructive after USD/CHF bounced off the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8037, which exacerbated a move above 0.8100. Momentum remains bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), after two days of bearishness, as buyers moved in to buy the dip.

For a bullish continuation, the USD/CHF needs to clear the 0.8150 milestone. Above this area sits the 0.8200 figure, followed by the yearly peak at 0.8207. Once surpassed, the next key resistance levels are the psychological 0.8250 and 0.8300.

For a bearish reversal, spot prices must drop below the 0.8100 mark and the 50-day SMA at 0.8037. After this level, the next area of interest would be the 100-day SMA at 0.7954, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7928.

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

Despite months of sideways trading, Frank E. Holmes believes the gold bull market is alive and well. During a wide-ranging conversation with Money Metals' Mike Maharrey, the executive chairman of HIVE Digital Technologies and CEO and Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of U.S. Global Investors argued that powerful global trends continue to support higher gold prices. 

From Asian consumer demand and central bank buying to Japan's interest rate shifts, artificial intelligence infrastructure, and rising government debt, Holmes outlined why he sees the current correction as a buying opportunity rather than the end of the bull market.

The "Love Trade" is stronger than the "Fear Trade"Frank Holmes explained that gold demand is driven by two distinct forces: the "fear trade" and the "love trade." Western investors tend to focus on fear-driven buying fueled by inflation, wars, monetary expansion, and financial instability. However, he argued that the larger and more durable driver comes from the love trade.

According to Holmes, roughly 60% of global gold demand comes from people purchasing gold as portable family wealth, particularly throughout Asia and the Middle East. Rising GDP per capita across countries such as China and India has dramatically increased gold ownership over the past two decades. In many emerging economies, physical gold functions as a form of financial insurance where traditional insurance markets are less developed.

Because of these cultural dynamics, Holmes believes every significant correction in gold is met with strong physical buying from Asian consumers, creating an important foundation underneath the market.

China, BRICS, and the Dollar's long-term challengeHolmes also emphasized that global monetary shifts continue to favor gold.

He pointed to more than $350 trillion in global debt and ongoing adherence to Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)-style fiscal policies as long-term catalysts for precious metals. At the same time, he argued that China has steadily weakened the U.S. dollar's international dominance through its Belt and Road Initiative and expanding influence among BRICS nations.

According to Holmes, approximately 75% of United Nations member countries now have financial ties to China through Belt and Road lending. That growing influence has encouraged more international trade to occur outside the traditional dollar system, reducing long-term demand for U.S. dollars while increasing interest in alternative reserve assets such as gold.

Japan may be driving more than investors realizeOne of Frank Holmes' biggest concerns centers on Japan's changing interest rate environment.

For roughly 30 years, Japan maintained near-zero borrowing costs, allowing hedge funds, institutions, pension funds, and insurers to borrow cheaply in yen before investing in higher-yielding assets around the world. That so-called "carry trade" became a major source of global liquidity.

Now that Japan has begun raising interest rates following post-COVID inflation and supply chain disruptions, Holmes believes that money is beginning to flow back into Japan. As investors unwind those leveraged positions, markets ranging from technology stocks to gold experience selling pressure driven by margin calls rather than deteriorating fundamentals.

He noted that Japan holds one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios among G7 nations, yet nearly half of that debt is owned domestically by the Bank of Japan. As Japanese capital returns home, Holmes expects the unwinding process to continue affecting markets worldwide.

AI spending suggests the global economy remains strongAlthough technology stocks have experienced volatility, Holmes argued that the artificial intelligence boom is far from finished.

He highlighted Meta's plans to build a $14 billion AI data center in El Paso, Texas, requiring approximately 50,000 tons of copper. Strong copper prices, he said, contradict the narrative that AI investment is collapsing.

Holmes also pointed to BlackRock's willingness to invest roughly $10 billion into AI infrastructure, backed by sovereign wealth funds from countries including Norway, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. These enormous capital commitments suggest institutions continue viewing AI as a long-term supercycle rather than a speculative bubble.

To Holmes, copper's continued strength reinforces that conclusion because rising industrial demand remains inconsistent with fears of an imminent AI collapse.

Quant models point to a favorable Gold setupRather than relying solely on macroeconomic forecasts, Holmes uses quantitative models to evaluate market conditions.

Frank Holmes explained that both gold and silver reached historically overbought levels earlier in the year, with silver moving approximately six standard deviations above its longer-term trend before futures exchanges increased margin requirements. Gold also experienced a significant correction as rising interest rates pressured prices.

After falling from roughly three standard deviations above trend to approximately 1.6 standard deviations below, Holmes said his models now indicate an approximately 85% probability that gold prices will be higher over the next 60 trading days.

He emphasized that this outlook comes from statistical market behavior rather than geopolitical predictions, arguing that markets naturally oscillate between periods of excessive optimism and excessive pessimism.

Why rising interest rates don't necessarily hurt GoldMike Maharrey challenged Holmes on a common assumption: if interest rates remain elevated and bonds stay in a long-term bear market, shouldn't that be bearish for gold?

Frank Holmes disagreed.

He argued that central bank gold buying—particularly among countries seeking to diversify away from the U.S. dollar—continues to provide substantial support. At the same time, governments facing mounting fiscal problems repeatedly resort to monetary expansion.

Holmes maintained that investors should hold at least 10% of their portfolios in gold and silver as financial insurance. While acknowledging that some vocal gold advocates own little or no physical metal themselves, he believes the underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals remain overwhelmingly favorable.

Will Central Banks ever stop printing money?The discussion turned to speculation surrounding Kevin Warsh and whether future Federal Reserve leadership might maintain a tougher stance on inflation.

Holmes acknowledged that Warsh projects a more disciplined, fact-based communication style than previous Fed officials. However, he ultimately believes any major recession or financial crisis would lead policymakers back toward monetary stimulus.

He argued that the institutional culture within central banking overwhelmingly favors supporting economic growth through additional liquidity, making continued money creation more likely than prolonged monetary restraint.

That expectation reinforces Holmes' long-term bullish outlook for gold, especially as governments continue expanding deficits.

Could Gold eventually reach $40,000?Perhaps Holmes' boldest projection involved the theoretical value of U.S. gold reserves.

Using a mark-to-market approach that compares America's official gold holdings with total federal debt, Holmes suggested gold could approach $40,000 per ounce if policymakers sought to substantially improve the nation's debt-to-gold ratio.

He also noted that China has increasingly emphasized physical gold ownership while reducing reliance on paper gold products. Holmes believes these policies strengthen demand for physical bullion while also giving the Chinese government greater oversight of domestic wealth.

Smart beta investing and reading the global economyHolmes also discussed his Smart Beta 2.0 investment process, which emphasizes revenue growth, cash flow momentum, and portfolio construction rather than simple stock selection.

For gold mining investments, he favors royalty companies while evaluating quarterly production and revenue growth relative to movements in gold prices.

Outside precious metals, Holmes watches cargo shipping and airline traffic as real-time indicators of global economic activity. He noted that roughly 80% of commodities move by cargo ship, while airline travel has surged from approximately 85,000 daily TSA screenings during 2020 back to roughly 3 million travelers per day.

Despite negative headlines, Holmes believes these indicators demonstrate that the global economy remains resilient.

Military spending, AI, and staying ahead of monetary expansionFrank Holmes concluded by arguing that government spending is increasingly shifting toward defense technology, cybersecurity, and artificial intelligence rather than traditional social programs.

He estimated that approximately $2.5 trillion could flow into military modernization and AI-related investments over time. Combined with continued monetary expansion, he believes these trends will continue creating opportunities across sectors tied to technology, commodities, and precious metals.

Rather than complaining about money printing, Frank E. Holmes encouraged investors to position their portfolios ahead of it. In his view, owning assets that benefit from inflationary policies—including physical gold—remains the most practical long-term strategy.