Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

7 million ounces of Silver left COMEX vaults last week with a spike in deliveries

Gold price retraces as Fed hawks keep the US Dollar bid

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Upside bias intact despite mixed momentum

Softer ECB rate expectations weaken the Euro-Dollar’s support, even as Scotiabank sees signs that bearish momentum is fading. Foreign exchange analysts at Scotiabank see the Euro to US Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) settling into consolidation after last week’s sell-off, with the recovery constrained by weaker interest-rate support.

The exchange rate stood near 1.1472 on Monday afternoon, down 0.12% from Friday’s close, after an earlier rise towards 1.1496 faded.

That leaves the Euro close to the lows reached following the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate increase, which took its target range to 3.75–4.00%.

Scotiabank notes that expectations for European Central Bank tightening have softened, while the Germany-US two-year yield spread has become less supportive of the Euro.

“Our narrow FV estimate based on 2Y spreads alone has softened somewhat but still remains in the mid/lower-1.15s.”

That estimate sits above the market, but it measures the exchange rate’s relationship with bond yields rather than setting a dated recovery target.

Image: EUR to USD rate's intraday chart Support holds as bearish momentum moderates The bank retains a bearish/neutral technical assessment, with “momentum showing a modest recovery from near-oversold levels”.

“The recent price action leans toward consolidation with clear support observed in the mid/upper-1.14s and limited near-term resistance ahead of the mid-1.15s.”

Monday’s 1.1468 low remains within that broad support area, although the retreat from the session high shows buyers have struggled to sustain gains.

Consolidation still leaves room for ING’s previously flagged downside risk towards 1.1400 if support gives way.

Scotiabank identifies Wednesday’s preliminary purchasing managers’ surveys and Thursday’s German Ifo business sentiment figures as the main European releases this week.

We think stronger activity readings would offer the clearest route to rebuilding confidence in the Euro, particularly if they also revive ECB rate expectations.

Disappointing figures would leave the yield argument weaker and put the mid-to-upper 1.14 support area under pressure.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

US retail diesel set a record of $6.31 on September 16 and matched it on Friday, up 68 percent from a year ago and from about $3.76 before the war. Crude is up about 52 percent over the same period.

The difference is the crack spread, the refiner’s margin between the barrel and the fuel, which sits above $100 against a normal $20 to $40. That is the signature of a refining shortage, not a crude shortage: Hormuz took Middle Eastern product exports off the market, Ukrainian strikes disabled about a quarter of Russia’s refining and collapsed its diesel exports from more than 800,000 barrels a day to about 50,000, and US East Coast distillate stocks are at a record low with the heating season weeks away.

The added column is the real policy rate, the funds rate minus the Fed’s own inflation projection for the same year. It rises from 0.7 percent this year to 1.6 percent in 2027 and 1.7 percent in 2028. That is what a flat nominal path does when inflation is projected to fall: it tightens in real terms without a single further hike. A funds rate that goes nowhere while core PCE goes from 3.4 to 2.5 is a real rate that more than doubles, and gold’s price is set by real rates, not by the count of hikes.

There is a second branch, and it is the one the reader is implicitly betting on: inflation does not fall. In that case the dots move, as they did in September, when the 2027 and 2028 medians were raised 50 basis points in three months on a 0.1-point upward revision to inflation. The market has already priced that branch, with three hikes expected by mid-2027 against the dots’ one. So the two readings resolve the same way. Either inflation falls and real rates rise, or inflation stays and nominal rates rise.

Neither is the “Fed tolerates inflation” story that would make the metals go up, and the metals have not gone up: gold settled Friday $37 above its pre-Fed level and has given that back this morning.

The reader’s last line, “at this time,” is the honest part. At this time, the hike does not matter to a metal that has spent two weeks inside a $140 range. It will matter the way the last two hikes mattered in June and July, when the metal broke the range in the direction of the real rate.

Gold: Back to The Pre-Fed Level Gold settled Friday at $4,424.90, up $25.20, and silver at $67.15, up $1.05, which made Friday the sixth session in ten in which silver led the upside. On Friday I wrote that silver was “clearly outperforming here” and asked readers to remember September 9.

This morning gold is down about $36 to near $4,389, silver is pretty much flat, and the 10-year note is bid

That last detail is the one to hold onto: gold is falling with yields falling and the dollar flat, which means it has no bid of its own on a day when both of its drivers are pointed the right way. Every dollar of Friday’s gain is gone, and the metal sits within two dollars of where it settled before the Fed spoke.

In this webinar we take an in-depth look at the technical trade levels for the US Dollar (DXY), Euro (EUR/USD), British Pound (GBP/USD), Australian Dollar (AUD/USD), Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD), Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), Gold (XAU/USD), Crude Oil (WTI), Bitcoin (BTC/USD), S&P 500 (SPX500), Nasdaq (NDX), and Dow Jones (DJI). These are the levels that matter on the technical charts into the weekly open.

Euro struggles against US Dollar as hawkish Fed outlook weighs

Weekly forex forecast: EUR/USD, XAU/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, Bitcoin and more [Video]

USDJPY rose on Monday, offsetting initial negative signal from Friday’s strong upside rejection (long upper shadow of Friday’s daily candle / potential bull-trap over 157.52 Fibo barrier) and keeping near-term bulls in play.

Fresh advance pressures cracked Fibo level at 157.52 (61.8% of 160.39/152.88 bear-leg / 30DMA) break of which to open way for renewed attack at more significant 200DMA barrier (158.40).

Improving technical picture on daily chart (RSI rises above neutrality zone, 10/20DMA in bullish configuration), along with weekly bullish engulfing, underpin the action, but overbought stochastic and 14-d momentum still in the negative territory, warm of headwinds bulls may face.

Broken 50% retracement level (156.64, reinforced by 20DMA) reverted to support which should hold dips and keep bullish bias.

Yen is expected to remain at the back foot following BOJ’s dovish hike last week and hawkish stance of the US central bank after raising rates for the first time since 2023 and signaled potential start of tightening cycle.

Res: 157.52; 158.05; 158.40; 158.62
Sup: 157.00; 156.64; 155.75; 155.28

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

Gold: CTA whipsaws but support holds – TD Securities

GBPUSD managed to resume drop after BOE hold official bank rate unchanged As we see over the chart market facing resistances at 1.3410 and 1.3475 where as long as market holding below one of those resistances more drop is expected toward 1.3140-60 zone Intrdy support at 1.3280 Above 1.3475 market may gain more bonus SUPPORT […]

Oil and Gold: Price review for the week ahead

Silver's rare net-long commercial signal shows why COT extremes can reveal what price alone misses

Euro managed to meet target 1.1460-80 As we see over thr previous chart, Euro managed to test support zone while still holding above it where a rebound correction toward 1.1570 is likely Below 1.1460 more drop may hit the market while trend support around 1.1390 may actvate another rebound SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.1460 1.1570 LEVEL2 […]

EUR/USD Price Forecasts: Bears remain in control with 1.1450 support eyed

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Summary:

1.1450 emerges as the new line in the sand for the EUR/USD as traders balance out a hawkish Fed and ECB tightening expectations. Current Setup Bias: CAUTIOUSLY BEARISH below 1.1535.

EUR/USD is trading around 1.1480 after a near 1% fall in the week ended 18 September. This weakness was directly attributable to the Federal Reserve’s 16 September rate hike and hawkish dot plot. However, the pair has largely held the key 1.1450–1.1460 support zone, which was a prior unblemished resistance for most of July until it was uncapped on 31 July 2026.

Despite the cautiously bearish bias, the pair is starting to show signs of stabilization post-FOMC. However, traders must not lose sight of the fact that the Fed still holds a stronger policy-rate advantage, while the ECB began tightening earlier this year but has since paused; this provides a floor under the euro. Traders now have to contend with a range that potentially starts at 1.1450 and extends to 1.1600, leaving room for choppy price action and impulse waves with pullbacks rather than a sharp, unidirectional trend push.

Current EUR/USD Macro Drivers 1. USD’s Principal Advantage

The Fed’s 25 bps rate hike took the Fed Funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. The dot plot of 4.1% suggests an additional hike before year-end. Fed officials have also re-emphasized that US inflation remains too high and expressed commitment to get it down to the 2% target. These events kept US Treasury yields and the dollar supported, and also maintained the substantial differential between policy rates in the US and the Eurozone. The Fed rate hike takes the interest-rate differential between the Fed Funds Rate and the ECB’s Deposit Facility Rate from the top end to 150 bps. Furthermore, Goldman Sachs has appeared among several analysts who are predicting an October rate hike.

2. The ECB’s Tightening Limits the Euro’s Downside

The ECB had raised rates by 25 bps on September 10, taking the deposit facility rate from 2.25% to 2.50%. This was primarily to curb inflation driven by rising energy prices in a predominantly energy-import-dependent euro zone. ECB Vice President Boris Vujcic has advocated caution about automatically translating higher energy prices into further rate hikes, citing the weakening impact of prolonged high energy costs on growth and domestic consumption.

3. Oil is creating a two-sided EUR/USD problem

Brent crude remains above $100, but continues to fall sharply as Saudi oil exports and pipeline flows recover. Reuters reported Brent crude trading around $102.08 early Monday. This supports the Euro, but the geopolitical risk premium remains. Higher oil prices raise European inflation while weakening household purchasing power and Eurozone growth.

EUR/USD Forecast Scenarios This Week Base case→ Consolidation: EUR/USD has to hold 1.1450 support and trade broadly between 1.1450–1.1600 as markets balance the hawkish Fed with any new ECB tightening expectations.

Bull case→Euro recovery: This will depend on a sustained move above 1.1535. This exposes upside targets at 1.1600–1.1650. If US bond yields decline amid new ECB tightening expectations, this supports the bull case scenario.

Bear case→ Dollar upside: If the 1.1450 support gives way, this would expose 1.1400, followed by 1.1350. Rising US Treasury yields, especially a 10-year note above 5.00%, boost this expectation. Markets are also pricing in another rate hike as early as October 2026, even as Brent stays above $100.

Price Catalysts This Week 1. Fedspeak: Further Fed communication is expected as FOMC policymakers Goolsbee, Barkin, Williams and Jefferson hit the newswires on 21-22 September. Any comments indicating that another 2026 hike is cemented would support USD.

2. ECB rhetoric: Will ECB policymakers endorse or push back against additional hiking expectations? Watch out for comments from ECB Chair Lagarde and German Bundesbank President Nagel, among others.

3. Oil Prices and European yields: Another push in Brent crude above current levels ($102) could send European yields soaring and raise ECB tightening expectations.  This also increases concerns about a Eurozone recession.

Technical Outlook Key price levels to watch:

Resistance: 1.1535 Major resistance: 1.1600–1.1620 Next resistance: 1.1650 Support: 1.1450–1.1460 Major support: 1.1360-1.1380 The 1.1450–1.1460 area remains the critical pivot. A break below this zone unlocks a move towards the 1.1450–1.1460 price zone.

However, a move above 1.1535 strengthens the recovery bias, with 1.1600- 1.1650 as the resistance zone and the primary target for the recovery move.

Silver has held together better than gold since the rebound started. That relative strength heading into a week with central bank speakers on the calendar is worth watching. If the dollar fades, silver is the one with the momentum.

What to Watch The Chicago Fed National Activity Index hits at 12:30 GMT. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee speaks later in the day. ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem are also on the schedule. After last week’s hike every comment gets pulled apart for direction on how many more increases are coming. Goolsbee’s tone matters more than the activity index. If he backs away from October urgency and the dollar fades alongside it, silver has a path to another run at $67.34.

Buyers have to get through the minor top at $67.34 and then deal with $67.79 before the lower high at $68.33 comes into play. Clearing $68.33 turns the main trend higher. The 200-day at $73.15 is well above and not part of this week’s conversation.

On the downside, $65.32 is where the rebound is either intact or it is not. Below it, the 50-day at $63.14 and $62.98 are the next test. The $62.31 low is the line. Below that, sellers have a path into the $61.04 to $60.84 zone. Silver is holding the bulk of a $4 rebound and the structure off the low has not cracked. Buyers keep the edge above $65.32.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Gold: Range-bound outlook with Fed headwinds – ING

Gold Price Forecast: Struggles to hold above 20-day EMA

XAGUSD spikes higher Precious metals have seen a surge in the past month as traders flocked to safe havens, with XAGUSD among the markets attracting renewed attention. XAGUSD has fallen back slightly after hitting the psychological level of 67.00, and this could be the ultimate test of buyers' resolve.

TL;DR: Gold is stalling just below 4,400 even as oil retreats and the Dollar’s post-FOMC rally loses steam, leaving India’s distorted physical demand as a plausible but unconfirmed partial explanation for the muted rebound.

Two Headwinds Ease, but Gold Still Can’t Clear 4,400 Gold’s rebound from 4,234.68 has stalled just below the psychological 4,400 level, even as two forces that have weighed heavily on the metal since the Iran conflict began are becoming less hostile. Gold is trading around 4,354, leaving the market with an increasingly important question: if oil-driven inflation pressure is easing and the Dollar’s post-FOMC rally is losing momentum, why hasn’t the recovery accelerated?

The answer starts with the unusual regime Gold has traded under during the conflict. Rather than behaving primarily as an inflation hedge, the metal has repeatedly been pressured by the policy consequences of higher inflation expectations. Rising oil prices intensified inflation concerns, encouraged more hawkish central-bank repricing, and lifted rate expectations, creating a headwind for a non-yielding asset. Geopolitical escalation therefore often hurt Gold through the rates channel rather than supporting it directly.

That mechanism should now be providing some relief. Brent has retreated to around 101.65 from 109.97, reducing the marginal inflation impulse just as crude approaches the important 100 support zone. Meanwhile, the Dollar’s post-FOMC advance has lost momentum and needs a fresh catalyst. Neither development guarantees higher Gold, but both remove pressures that previously worked against it. Yet Gold has still failed to regain 4,400 decisively.

Is India Part of the Missing Demand? One possible explanation lies in India, where a major policy shock has continued to distort physical demand. The government doubled the import duty on gold and silver from 6% to 15% on May 13, part of an effort to defend the rupee and foreign-exchange reserves during the Iran conflict. The World Gold Council subsequently estimated the measure could reduce India’s full-year 2026 gold demand by 50–60 tonnes, or roughly 10% yoy.

The timing matters because the market is approaching the usual pre-festival restocking period. Yet jewellers have reportedly been relying heavily on recycled gold obtained through exchanges rather than rebuilding fresh inventories ahead of Dussehra and Diwali. If that pattern persists, it could help explain why a more supportive macro backdrop hasn’t translated into a stronger spot-price response.

But the evidence doesn’t justify making India the full answer. Domestic Gold discounts have actually been narrowing, from around $75/oz in the week around September 11 to roughly $60/oz in the week around September 18. That points to gradual normalization after the May duty shock rather than a deepening deterioration in demand.

This distinction is important. If India were becoming an increasingly severe drag on global Gold, a renewed widening in the discount would provide much stronger confirmation. For now, India is best treated as a plausible partial explanation for the muted rebound rather than the factor that definitively resolves the puzzle.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: Only a Slight Bullish Lean

The technical setup reflects the same uncertainty. Gold is trading close to its 4-hour 55 EMA around 4,357, while RSI at 51.25 is effectively neutral. MACD provides a somewhat more constructive signal: its roughly three-week rising trendline has survived the recent sideways consolidation, giving momentum a slight upward bias without yet producing a decisive breakout.

That leaves 4,304.20 as the key near-term support. Another rise remains favored while that level holds, but Gold needs to clear 4,410.32, the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 4,697.07 to 4,234.68, to strengthen the case that the correction from 4,697.07 has completed.

A decisive break would open the way toward a stronger resistance confluence around 4,511–4,520. The zone combines structural resistance at 4,510.90 with the 61.8% retracement at 4,519.82. Clearing it would provide substantially stronger evidence that Gold has moved beyond stabilization and into a more durable recovery.

The downside is also clearly defined. A break below 4,304.20 would revive near-term bearish pressure and expose 4,234.68 again. A subsequent break of that low would indicate the decline from 4,697.07 is extending rather than forming a base.

Three Tests Could Break the Stalemate The fundamental puzzle now has several identifiable ways to resolve. The first is Brent around 100–100.26. A decisive breakdown would further weaken the energy-inflation channel that has been pressuring Gold through hawkish rate expectations. A strong rebound would restore part of that headwind.

The second is the Dollar. This week’s flash PMIs, extensive Fed speaking schedule, and Trump-Xi summit could provide the catalyst missing from the post-FOMC consolidation. A renewed Dollar breakout would challenge Gold again; a more decisive Dollar reversal would make Gold’s continued inability to regain 4,400 increasingly difficult to explain through macro forces alone.

The third is India. The next few weekly discount readings should show whether the normal pre-Dussehra and Diwali restocking cycle finally emerges. A further narrowing in discounts would weaken the argument that Indian demand is suppressing Gold. A renewed widening, particularly alongside continued reluctance by jewellers to restock, would make the India hypothesis considerably more persuasive.

For now, Gold is caught between easing macro headwinds and incomplete physical-demand confirmation. The chart reflects that uncertainty almost perfectly: mildly constructive above 4,304.20, but still lacking the decisive 4,410.32 breakout needed to prove the rebound has moved beyond another pause within the broader correction.

Key Takeaways Gold is stalling near 4,354, just below the 4,400 psychological level, even as Brent’s retreat from 109.97 and a fading Dollar rally both remove prior headwinds. India’s May 2026 gold import duty hike (6% to 15%) could cut full-year demand by an estimated 50-60 tonnes, but narrowing discounts ($75 to $60/oz) suggest gradual normalization, not a worsening drag. The technical picture is only mildly constructive: RSI near neutral at 51.25, with 4,304.20 as key support and 4,410.32 as the level needed to confirm the correction from 4,697.07 has completed. Three separate tests could resolve the stalemate: Brent’s reaction at 100-100.26, the Dollar’s response to this week’s flash PMIs, Fed speeches, and the Trump-Xi summit, and India’s upcoming pre-Diwali discount readings. A break above 4,410.32 opens the 4,511-4,520 resistance zone; a break below 4,304.20 would revive bearish pressure and expose the 4,234.68 low again.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Pound-Canadian Dollar could remain sensitive to UK PMIs and oil prices, with stronger crude likely to support the Loonie while weak UK borrowing may weigh on Sterling. The Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate faced notable volatility last week as oil price movements and the Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision impacted the pairing.

At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8728, down marginally on the week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.873175 (+0.24%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.606218 (+0.04%)

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.39845 (-0.05%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) traded unevenly on Monday, with markets awaiting a busy run of UK data and the Bank of England’s upcoming policy announcement.

Sterling remained volatile on Tuesday after the latest labour market figures showed unemployment unexpectedly holding steady, rather than climbing as anticipated. However, the data continued to highlight signs of weakness across the UK jobs market.

The Pound came under pressure on Wednesday as the latest inflation figures failed to provide much encouragement. Annual headline inflation accelerated from 2.9% to 3.1% in August, while core inflation remained unchanged at 2.6%. Both figures were in line with expectations.

Sterling extended its losses on Thursday after the BoE opted to keep interest rates unchanged. The decline was tempered by the central bank announcing a slower pace of bond sales, helping to push UK borrowing costs lower.

The Pound regained some ground on Friday after UK retail sales outperformed expectations. Sales increased by 0.5% in August, following a 0.2% fall in July, while markets had been expecting another 0.5% decline.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) initially strengthened on Monday as a jump in oil prices boosted the crude-linked currency, although softer Canadian inflation figures later put pressure on the ‘Loonie’.

Oil prices continued to provide support on Tuesday, helping the commodity-sensitive currency maintain some of its strength. However, the ‘Loonie’ surrendered its early gains in the afternoon as crude prices became more volatile.

Direction was less clear for the Canadian Dollar on Wednesday, with fluctuating oil prices limiting momentum. Nevertheless, the ‘Loonie’ recovered some earlier losses later in the session, also rising against the weaker Pound.

CAD was subdued on Thursday as easing concerns over oil supplies prompted Brent crude to retreat to around $102 a barrel. Despite this, the ‘Loonie’ climbed to a one-week high against the Pound before trimming some of its gains.

The Canadian Dollar then slipped modestly on Friday as falling oil prices reduced demand for the commodity-linked currency.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Higher Oil Prices to Underpin CAD? Looking forward, the Pound may face headwinds on Tuesday as the latest UK borrowing figures come into focus. A significant increase in borrowing through August could revive concerns about the state of the UK’s finances ahead of the Autumn Budget.

Attention will then turn to the UK’s preliminary September PMIs on Wednesday. Signs of another month of resilient economic activity, particularly within the crucial services sector, could provide Sterling with some support.

For the Canadian Dollar, Canada’s latest retail sales figures on Thursday could influence the ‘Loonie’. Confirmation of a slump in July could dent CAD, although a forecast recovery in August may support the currency.

Meanwhile, oil price dynamics could continue to drive CAD volatility. If escalating tensions in the Middle East ultimately push crude higher, the Canadian Dollar may climb.

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