The unemployment rate is expected to show an increase to 4.4% for the month. Reports that indicate job growth for the month is lower will give credibility to beliefs that the Fed will take a more conservative affect on policy, while reports that show job growth for the month is greater will prompt increased expectations of more policy tightening.
Precious metals continue to improve as geopolitical concerns ease as the U.S. and Iran find common ground through Qatar. This has impacted oil prices, along with the expectations of decreased inflation, with traders showing a 59% probability for the September Fed Funds rate hike, compared to the recent average of 67%. Decreased U.S. Dollar inflation and the expectation of a data dependent Fed policy support gold.
In the medium term, fundamentals remain constructive for Silver because of industrial demand from the growth of solar photovoltaics, AI infrastructure, advanced electronics, and the expansion of the power grid. Along with continued central bank diversification into gold and the increasing amount of uncertainty around the upcoming employment data, these structural drivers of demand will continue to sustain the outlook for precious metals, even in an uncertain environment around monetary policy.
The Euro (EUR) trades marginally higher at around 1.1536 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair edges up as the US Dollar ticks lower ahead of the United States (US) ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.
According to estimates, US private employers hired 70K fresh workers, lower than 98K in June.
The impact of the US private sector employment data will be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations as officials have stopped providing so-called “forward guidance”.
Meanwhile, the Euro is expected to trade strongly amid firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike interest rates.
Markets hold firm on September ECB hike expectationsAccording to TD Securities, market pricing remains aligned with its policy outlook, with investors "continue to fully price a 25bp ECB rate hike in September, which remains our base case." The bank sees no material shift yet in expectations around the upcoming meeting, underscoring the persistence of a hawkish bias in Eurozone rate markets.
While remarks from ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher, released last week, showed that he remained data-dependent for the monetary policy outlook. However, Kocher has made clear that the central bank is committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target on a sustainable basis.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades at around 1.1537, holding above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1461, keeping the near-term bias constructive.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62 suggests positive momentum but is not yet in overbought territory, hinting that buyers retain control as long as price stays above the short-term EMA.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the downward resistance trend line break price at 1.1544, and a clear daily close above this barrier would strengthen the bullish outlook. On the downside, the 20-period EMA at 1.1461 offers initial support, and a drop back below this moving average would signal fading bullish pressure and expose the pair to the July 28 low at 1.1353.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Kocher flags data-dependent autumn decisions as geopolitical risks cloud Euro outlookKocher’s 5.6/10 score on FXS Speechtracker falls below the historic 6.3/10 average, pointing to a slightly less forceful tone than usual. The emphasis on how quickly geopolitical developments can alter energy prices and the inflation outlook underscores lingering upside risks to Euro area prices, which leans modestly hawkish despite the softer score.
The pledge that the ECB Governing Council will decide in autumn based on incoming data to bring Euro area inflation back to 2% on a sustainable basis reinforces a data-dependent but still anti-inflation stance. For the Euro, the combination of acknowledged inflation risks and conditional commitment to the 2% target suggests limited immediate policy aggression, but keeps the door open to renewed tightening rhetoric if energy-driven price pressures re-intensify into autumn.
TL;DR: Silver has returned above $60 as growing optimism over a Strait of Hormuz reopening pulls oil lower, reshapes Fed rate expectations, and drags Treasury yields down — with silver carrying an extra industrial-demand tailwind gold doesn’t have.
A Broad Precious Metals Rally, With a Deeper Driver Silver has returned above $60, joining gold in a broad precious metals rally as investors increasingly bet the inflation shock from the Middle East may prove less severe than feared just a week ago. The immediate catalyst has been growing optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen in the near future, easing concerns over global energy supplies. But the real driver behind silver’s renewed strength lies one step further down the chain: falling oil prices are rapidly reshaping Federal Reserve expectations, pulling Treasury yields lower and giving precious metals fresh room to advance.
This move is unfolding alongside record highs in US equities and improving risk sentiment — a combination that’s particularly constructive for silver, which benefits not only from monetary easing expectations but also from the prospect of stronger industrial demand if global trade disruptions begin to ease.
Markets Are Pricing Probability, Not Confirmation Investor optimism has steadily grown following comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as early as this week. Since then, reports have suggested negotiations are progressing. A senior Middle East diplomat indicated the United States and European countries are pressing Oman to help finalize a temporary arrangement with Iran, while a senior Pakistani official said a reopening document is close to completion. Separately, US Central Command emphasized that commercial traffic through the southern shipping lane has remained operational despite Iranian harassment.
None of these developments confirms the Strait is about to reopen permanently. Iran has yet to publicly endorse such an agreement, and previous episodes have shown how quickly optimistic headlines can unravel. Nevertheless, financial markets rarely wait for certainty — they price changing probabilities, and those probabilities have shifted enough to trigger a broad reassessment across asset classes.
That reassessment is evident in oil markets. Brent has broken below $80 after trading above $100 in late July, although the decline has slowed around the $78 area, suggesting traders still see meaningful geopolitical risk. Equity markets have been quicker to embrace the improving outlook, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbing to fresh record highs as investors look beyond the immediate conflict toward a normalization of global trade flows.
From Oil to the Fed: The Transmission Mechanism For silver, the decline in oil prices matters less because of cheaper energy itself and more because of what it implies for inflation and monetary policy.
Only a week ago, markets were still assigning around a 20% probability that the Fed could deliver two additional rate hikes this year as surging oil prices threatened to reignite inflation. That tail risk has now disappeared completely. Even over the past 24 hours, expectations have shifted noticeably, with the probability of the Fed holding rates unchanged in September rising from roughly 33% to 43%, while expectations for one hike have moved lower.
Comparing four snapshots for the September 16 meeting shows the shift clearly:
1 month ago (Jul 2): ~46% hold, ~46% one hike, ~8% two hikes. 1 week ago (Jul 28): ~24% hold, ~56% one hike, ~20% two hikes. 1 day ago (Aug 3): ~33% hold, ~67% one hike, 0% two hikes. Right now: ~43% hold, ~57% one hike, 0% two hikes.
Treasury markets have responded in kind. The US 10-year yield has retreated from around 4.75% to 4.63% this week, easing one of the most important headwinds for precious metals. If the Hormuz situation continues to improve and energy prices remain contained, markets are likely to see less need for additional Fed tightening, providing further support for gold and silver through lower real yields.
Why Silver Has an Extra Tailwind Gold Doesn’t Gold and silver share the same monetary drivers — both tend to benefit when yields fall and the Dollar softens. But silver enjoys an additional advantage that could become increasingly important if the current geopolitical narrative continues to improve.
A credible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz would not only reduce inflation fears but could also improve expectations for global manufacturing, trade, and industrial production. That matters far more for silver than for gold, because roughly half of silver demand comes from industrial applications. In other words, the same development that encourages investors to buy precious metals through lower yields could simultaneously strengthen silver’s underlying physical demand outlook.
That helps explain why silver has recovered so quickly from its recent consolidation, and why its technical picture now appears increasingly constructive.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Silver Technically, price action suggests the consolidation from 60.92 likely ended at 56.54, keeping the rebound from 54.77 intact. The immediate hurdle is a decisive break above 60.92. Such a move would target the 100% projection of 54.77 to 60.92 from 56.54, at 62.69, and strengthen the case that buyers have regained control.
Momentum indicators also deserve close attention — a clean break in the four-hour MACD above its trend line would reinforce the near-term bullish outlook. If 62.69 gives way, the rally could extend toward the 161.8% projection at 66.49, signaling the advance from 54.77 is evolving into an impulsive move.
Even then, the bigger picture argues for patience. As long as 67.98 — the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 89.37 to 54.77 — remains intact, the current rally is still best viewed as part of a medium-term corrective structure rather than confirmation of a new secular uptrend. The macro backdrop has turned more supportive, but silver bulls still need both geopolitical progress and technical confirmation before declaring a decisive reversal.
Key Takeaways Silver’s rally above $60 is driven less by Hormuz optimism itself and more by what falling oil implies for Fed policy and Treasury yields. The probability of two Fed hikes this year has dropped from 20% a week ago to 0% currently, with hold probability for September rising from 33% to 43% in just 24 hours. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 4.75% to 4.63% this week, removing one of the key headwinds for precious metals. Silver carries an added tailwind over gold: roughly half its demand is industrial, so easing trade disruption fears supports both investment and physical demand. A decisive break above 60.92 targets 62.69 and then 66.49, but the rally remains a corrective structure, not a confirmed secular uptrend, as long as 67.98 resistance holds.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,079.31 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 7,967.06 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 94,235.52 per tola from PHP 92,926.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,079.31
10 Grams
80,793.02
Tola
94,235.52
Troy Ounce
251,298.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 499.30 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 492.37 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 5,823.66 per tola from SAR 5,742.86 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
499.30
10 Grams
4,992.96
Tola
5,823.66
Troy Ounce
15,529.99
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The USD/JPY pair drifts lower during the Asian session on Wednesday and, for now, seems to have stalled this week's goodish recovery from the 155.25-155.20 region, or the lowest since May. Spot prices, however, rebound from the daily low and currently trade just above mid-157.00s, down less than 0.10% for the day.
Japan's real wages grew for the sixth straight month in June, which, along with hawkish Bank of Japan (BoJ) Minutes, provides a modest lift to the Japanese Yen (JPY). Meanwhile, oil prices languish near a multi-week low amid hopes for a US-Iran peace deal, easing inflation fears and tempering US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and exerts some pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
However, concerns about Japan's worsening fiscal condition and the wide US-Japan rate differential hold back JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Furthermore, traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in 2026, which limits USD losses and lends some support to the USD/JPY pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due on Friday.
From a technical perspective, spot prices keep the near-term bias slightly bearish while below the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around the neutral 50 line, and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally below zero with a flat histogram, hinting at fading upside momentum rather than an outright trend acceleration.
The 50-period EMA on the 4-hour chart at 157.80 might continue to act as an immediate hurdle, while the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the intervention-led downfall, at 158.53, forms the next barrier. This is followed by 159.56 at the 50% retracement and 160.59 at the 61.8% level. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 23.6% Fibo. level at 157.25, and a break below this would expose the more distant structural base around the 155.19 cycle low.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price Last 7 Days The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-1.25%-1.19%-3.67%-0.22%-1.01%-1.43%-1.23%EUR1.25%0.07%-2.55%1.02%0.30%-0.18%0.02%GBP1.19%-0.07%-2.59%0.98%0.24%-0.27%-0.04%JPY3.67%2.55%2.59%3.68%2.88%2.00%2.54%CAD0.22%-1.02%-0.98%-3.68%-0.77%-1.61%-1.11%AUD1.01%-0.30%-0.24%-2.88%0.77%-0.48%-0.29%NZD1.43%0.18%0.27%-2.00%1.61%0.48%0.20%CHF1.23%-0.02%0.04%-2.54%1.11%0.29%-0.20% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 488.00 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 481.47 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,691.88 per tola from AED 5,615.79 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
488.00
10 Grams
4,879.96
Tola
5,691.88
Troy Ounce
15,178.55
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,941.59 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 36,426.64 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 430,890.30 per tola from PKR 424,873.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,941.59
10 Grams
369,424.30
Tola
430,890.30
Troy Ounce
1,149,020.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 544.38 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 536.36 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,349.56 per tola from MYR 6,256.04 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
544.38
10 Grams
5,443.92
Tola
6,349.56
Troy Ounce
16,932.12
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,635.95 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,450.08 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 147,364.90 per tola from INR 145,215.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,635.95
10 Grams
126,341.00
Tola
147,364.90
Troy Ounce
393,019.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
A break above $4,150 may push the gold price towards $4,200. And a break above $4,200 will confirm that the short term bottom is in place and open the door for another rally towards $4,500.
On the other hand, if the price fails to break higher and closes below $4,000, this may push prices back towards $3,900. It is interesting to note that the gold price is now recovering above the midline of the RSI, which indicates that the short term momentum may strengthen in the gold market.
XAUUSD 4-Hour: $4,150 Resistance Holds the Key to the Next Move The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows that the price is approaching the critical resistance at the $4,150 area. A break above this level will likely push prices towards the next resistance at $4,300.
The price structure above the $3,950 level remains constructive on the 4-hour chart. But a break above the descending trendline at $4,300 is required to maintain the bullish momentum towards $4,500.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 181.70 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Euro (EUR) as traders remain on alerts for further intervention from Japanese authorities following the coordinated intervention between the United States (US) and Japan.
Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran talks. Axios reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with Washington aiming for a Wednesday announcement.
The source added that the agreement under discussion sets up a 60-day temporary arrangement between Oman and Iran in the critical waterway. Fresh optimism over the Middle East could improve risk sentiment and provide some support to the riskier asset, such as the EUR against the JPY.
Yen outlook seen hinging on growth rather than faster BoJ hikesSociete Generale argues that the policy rate path alone is unlikely to deliver a sustained recovery in the Yen. Analysts there stress that “more, or faster BoJ rate hikes won’t solve the problem either, unless the Japanese growth outlook makes them appear realistic,” underscoring their view that a credible improvement in Japan’s growth prospects is a prerequisite for any meaningful policy tightening to support the currency.
Technical Analysis: Negative outlook of EUR/JPY remains intactIn the daily chart, EUR/JPY keeps a bearish near-term tone as spot holds below the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) from the Bollinger Bands and the 100-day SMA, which now act as a tight resistance cluster overhead. Price is sliding toward the lower Bollinger Band while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 34.77 stays close to oversold territory, hinting that downside pressure persists but may be approaching a fatigue zone.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the Bollinger mid-line/20-day SMA near 184.90, followed by the 100-day SMA at 185.10. A decisive daily close above this level would be needed to ease the current downside bias, with the upper Bollinger Band up at 188.65 as a more distant barrier.
On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band around 181.15 offers the first notable support, and a clear break beneath it would expose the February 12 low of 180.81, en route to the 180.00 psychological level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts buyers for the second consecutive day and surges past the $4,100 mark to hit a nearly two-week high during the Asian session on Wednesday. The latest optimism over a potential US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, along with receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike bets, prompts some follow-through US Dollar (USD) selling and benefits the commodity.
Despite mixed signals, investors remain hopeful about a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old US-Iran war. In fact, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US could reach a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Wednesday and move toward a more normalized position in this conflict. Adding to this, Axios, citing sources, reported that the US, Iran, and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the strategic waterway. Furthermore, the OPEC+ decision on Sunday to increase production from September helps ease supply concerns and dragging crude oil prices to a fresh low since June 13. This, in turn, alleviates inflation concerns and hawkish Fed expectations, which are seen exerting pressure on the USD and supporting the non-yielding Gold.
Traders, however, are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid signs that the US labor market is beginning to find its footing. The US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the number of job openings edged lower to 7.36 million but remained above levels seen last year. Adding to this, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson backed the case for tighter monetary policy and higher interest rates to fight inflation. This might hold back USD bears from placing aggressive bets as the focus remains on the official jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
In the meantime, Wednesday's US economic docket – featuring the release of the ADP report on private-sector employment and ISM Services PMI – will be watched for short-term opportunities later during the North American session. Apart from this, fresh developments surrounding the Middle East crisis should provide some impetus to the USD and the Gold price. The aforementioned fundamental backdrop, meanwhile, seems tilted in favor of XAU/USD bulls and supports prospects for a further intraday appreciating move.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis: Gold bulls look to build on intraday breakout above 200-EMA on H4From a technical perspective, an intraday breakout through the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) hurdle on the 4-hour chart validates the positive outlook. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index around 65 suggests firm bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, hinting that buyers still retain control in the short term.
However, the current up-move could start to struggle above $4,130, with overbought signals on momentum gauges likely to cap the upside if buying enthusiasm fades. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 200-period EMA near $4,115, where a break would expose a deeper correction toward the daily low, near $4,065, en route to the $4,043-$4,042 region, the $4,020 level and the $4,000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.03%-0.16%0.05%-0.04%0.31%-0.16%EUR0.04%0.00%-0.11%0.09%-0.01%0.34%-0.12%GBP0.03%-0.01%-0.13%0.08%-0.02%0.34%-0.13%JPY0.16%0.11%0.13%0.21%0.12%0.46%-0.01%CAD-0.05%-0.09%-0.08%-0.21%-0.09%0.28%-0.21%AUD0.04%0.00%0.02%-0.12%0.09%0.35%-0.12%NZD-0.31%-0.34%-0.34%-0.46%-0.28%-0.35%-0.46%CHF0.16%0.12%0.13%0.00%0.21%0.12%0.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold is building on its recovery from near the $4,020 region in Wednesday’s Asian trades, advancing beyond the $4,100 round level.
Gold capitalizes on US-Iran peace deal hopesGold buyers are extending their control amid further weakness in Oil prices, which continue to ease inflationary concerns and weigh on US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets and thus, the US Dollar (USD).
WTI – the US oil benchmark – resumes its previous downside and hits three-week lows near $73.50, following an Axios report, citing two regional sources and a US official stating that “the US, Iran and Oman are closing in on an interim agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with the U.S. aiming for a Wednesday announcement.”
This headline added to the market optimism induced by the recent claims from senior US officials that progress was made on negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, even though Iran rejected those claims late on Tuesday.
Analysts at ING note that “lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, offering a more supportive backdrop for bullion.” However, they add that this support is being tempered as “markets continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy following last week's Federal Reserve meeting,” leaving “gold… likely to remain caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and ongoing uncertainty over US interest rates.”
With risk flows in full steam and US jobs data weakening, the Greenback remains under bearish pressure, allowing Gold to see a decisive break higher.
However, it remains to be seen whether the Hormuz reopening deal actually lasts and whether the US ADP Employment Change data surprises to the upside. These factors could impede Gold’s upward trajectory.
The US ADP Employment Change is foreseen at 70K in July, down from 98K reported in June.
Currently, markets are pricing in a 55% chance that the Fed will lower rates in September, down from about 65% a day ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Gold traders seem to ignore recent hawkish commentary from Fed policymakers.
Fed’s Schmid delivered a slightly more hawkish-than-usual message early Wednesday, with a 7.3/10 FXS Speechtracker score relative to the historical average of 7/10, stressing that current policy is “not tight” and that tighter monetary policy is needed to return inflation to 2%. The emphasis on AI-related investment as a fresh inflation driver, the warning that recent disinflation is too tentative to confirm an easing trend, and the view that inflation remains “too high” and “worrisome” all reinforce a bias toward additional restraint, even if some pressures stem from supply shocks. Overall, the tone supports a firmer Dollar as markets reassess the likelihood and timing of future rate cuts.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index slipped by 0.96 points to 145.80, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. However, with the FXS Fed Sentiment Index still far above the neutral 100 mark, the policy backdrop remains firmly hawkish despite the slight softening, consistent with Schmid’s call for tighter conditions to secure the inflation target.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,129.18. The metal holds above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,063, but remains capped by the 50-day SMA at $4,160, keeping the broader picture tilted to the downside while allowing for near-term recovery attempts. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs, clustered well above price near $4,398 and $4,491 respectively, reinforce the notion of a market still trading below its primary trend gauges. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.8 has turned marginally positive, hinting that selling pressure is easing, yet it does not offset the weight of the overhead moving averages.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50-day SMA around $4,160, where a sustained break would be needed to extend the rebound toward the 100-day SMA at $4,398 and then the 200-day SMA near $4,491. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 21-day SMA at $4,063, with a break there exposing the rising trend-line support drawn from prior lows, now coming in around $3,951.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Next release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 70K
Previous: 98K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades 1.8% higher at around $60.95 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal attracts significant bids as oil prices face a sharp sell-off amid hopes of a resolution in conflicts between the United States (US) and Iran regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades 0.8% lower at around $73.80.
Global inflation expectations get anchored by lower oil prices, which diminish fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a scenario bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Hopes for US-Iran conflict resolution are backed by comments from US officials that a deal would be reached soon. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a CNBC interview that a deal with Iran to reopen the critical chokepoint could be reached “as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday”.
However, financial markets are uncertain regarding whether ongoing talks would restore freedom of navigation through the critical chokepoint. So far, Iran has just confirmed that it is in talks with Oman over the charge of the Hormuz Strait.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. In Wednesday’s session, investors will focus on the ADP Employment Change data for July, which will be published at 12:15 GMT.
Deutsche Bank looks for modest pickup in US July payrollsEconomists at Deutsche Bank expect a slightly firmer US labour market print on Friday, projecting that the July payrolls report will show employment growth of “+65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading,” with “private payrolls … also expected to rise by +65k after +49k previously.” Set alongside their projections for a 4.2% unemployment rate, with risks skewed toward 4.3% on higher participation, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month, the bank’s forecasts point to a still‑moderate pace of job creation consistent with nominal income growth running at around 4.4% year‑on‑year.
Silver technical analysis
XAG/USD trades higher at around $60.95, holding above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.05, which now underpins a constructive near-term bias. The EMA offers underlying trend support as price advances away from the recent lows, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 53.23 sits in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is building but not yet overstretched.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA at $59.05, where a pullback could find buyers to preserve the short-term uptrend. Below that, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level. Looking up, the Silver price could extend the advance towards the July 6 high at $63.28 if it manages to stabilize above $61.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Follow up - Kiwi dips as jobless rate climbs ahead of RBNZ's September decisionGold climbs for third day as Hormuz deal hopes ease inflation fears, holds above $4,100US, Iran and Oman near interim deal to reopen Strait of HormuzChina Rating Dog PMI (July 2026) 50.4 (expected 53.7)More - BOJ minutes show board debated mounting price risks despite June hikeUS officials reviewing an air-traffic safety incident involving a military helicopter carrying TrumpNZ commodity prices post biggest monthly fall since 2022 on dairy slidePBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.7889 (vs. estimate at 6.7480)Japan services PMI: Growth slows in July as selling prices near record highRate hike watch - Fed's Schmid says tighter policy needed as inflation stays too highSituational Awareness backers included Silicon Valley elite before AI bets souredBank of Japan June meeting minutes: 7-1 vote to raise rate to 1.0% amid inflation riskIran rejects US claim of open southern route through Strait of HormuzJapan real wages rise for sixth straight month, supporting BoJ rate hike (eventually) caseAustralia services PMI hits six-month high of 53.6 as new orders returnNew Zealand unemployment rate jumps to 5.6% vs. 5.4% expected and 5.3% priorICYMI - Bank of Korea to resume gold buying after 13 years, not large buying.Israeli official says Trump wants Iran deal 'at any cost', report saysUS Treasury Secretary Bessent waffling on about the yen and BoJOil update: Iran and Oman said to have agreed broad outlines of strait reopening dealOil recap - Oil settles around 5% lower as Iran talks raise hopes on Hormuz reopeningOil: Private inventory survey shows a headline crude oil build vs draw expectedStocks surge to records as Wall Street scrambles to explain the rally after the factS&P and NASDAQ indices close at new record levelsAMD beats on Q2 earnings and revenue, guides Q3 above estimatesSpaceX posts $7.8bn revenue in debut earnings, beats estimates on Starlink growthBooking Holdings shares jump after hours as Americans continue to travelKey points:
Iran and Oman reported near agreement on Hormuz reopening mechanics, with Iran managing inbound traffic and Oman outbound plus a service fee, before later reports said no deal had been finalised yetIran also weighing a voluntary fund to charge European states for strait upkeepSenior Israeli official said Trump wants an Iran deal at any cost, per Al ArabiyaSaudi Arabia reportedly struck Yemen's capital SanaaAxios later reported the US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim deal targeting a Wednesday announcement, with a 60-day arrangement giving Iran greater control over strait traffic than before the war and no tolls initiallyTrump told Fox News talks with Iran are going well and the strait will open soon, adding the "heavy blow" has not yet comeOil eased and gold surged back above $4,130 as diminishing energy price risk trimmed inflation and Fed rate hike expectationsNZD fell as New Zealand's unemployment rate hit an 11 year high, even as other details of the report were less downbeatANZ's NZ World Commodity Price Index fell 3.9% in July, its largest monthly drop since November 2022, though still up 0.5% on the yearYen strengthened after a garbled Bessent message on the BoJ via NHK capped USD/JPY, alongside data showing Japan real wages rose for a sixth straight month and BoJ minutes supportive of further hikesChina's RatingDog services PMI slumped to 50.4 in July from 54.1, well below the 53.7 expected, the weakest reading since September 2024Kansas City Fed's Schmid said tighter policy is needed as inflation remains too high, and that AI investment is adding to price pressuresThe PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at a fresh 41 month high for the yuanSpaceX posted Q2 revenue of $7.8bn, up 92% year on year and above estimates, in its first results since June's IPO, with the AI segment loss narrower than forecastAMD beat on Q2 EPS and revenue and guided Q3 revenue above consensusDetail:
Diplomatic developments around the Strait of Hormuz dominated the session, with the narrative refining as the day progressed. Early reports suggested Iran and Oman had largely agreed on the mechanics of reopening the strait, with Iran set to manage inbound traffic and Oman handling outbound shipping alongside a proposed service fee, though later reports cautioned that a final agreement had not yet been reached. Iran was also said to be weighing a voluntary fund that would see European states contribute toward the cost of maintaining the strait. Adding a political dimension, a senior Israeli official told N12, as reported by Al Arabiya, that President Trump wants a deal with Iran at any cost, describing the gap between peace and war under the current administration as narrow as the distance between letters on a keyboard. Separately, Saudi Arabia was reported to have struck Yemen's capital, Sanaa, a reminder that regional tensions remain far from fully resolved even as the Hormuz diplomacy advances.
The picture firmed up later in the session when Axios reported the US, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim deal to reopen the strait, targeting a Wednesday announcement that would restore the US-Iran ceasefire and pave the way for resumed nuclear talks. Under the reported terms, Trump has paused planned military strikes to allow diplomacy to continue, and the 60 day arrangement would grant Iran greater control over strait traffic than it held before the war began, with no tolls charged during the initial period. Trump himself later struck an optimistic tone in comments to Fox News, saying discussions with Iran are going very well and that the strait will open very soon, while noting that the "heavy blow" has not yet come and expressing hope it would not be needed.
The shifting but broadly positive tone on Hormuz weighed on oil, which eased modestly, while gold surged back above $4,130 an ounce as the diminishing risk of higher energy prices trimmed inflation expectations and, with them, the perceived odds of further Federal Reserve tightening. The move underscores how closely gold has been tracking the ebb and flow of the diplomatic process this week, even as central bank buying and Asian ETF inflows continue to provide a structural floor beneath prices.
Currency markets saw their own share of volatility. The New Zealand dollar fell after data showed the unemployment rate climbing to an 11 year high, even though other details within the report, including a modest beat on employment growth, were less discouraging. Separate data from ANZ showed New Zealand's World Commodity Price Index fell 3.9% in July, the largest monthly drop since November 2022, though the index remains up 0.5% on the year. The yen, meanwhile, found support from a somewhat garbled Bessent message on the currency and the Bank of Japan via an NHK report, which was nonetheless enough to cap USD/JPY during the morning session. Additional support came from data showing Japanese real wages rose for a sixth consecutive month, along with Bank of Japan June meeting minutes that showed policymakers debating mounting price risks even as they delivered the June hike, reinforcing the sense that the pendulum is swinging toward a further rate increase in September.
China provided a more downbeat data point, with the RatingDog China Services PMI falling sharply to 50.4 in July from 54.1 in June, well below the 53.7 expected and the weakest reading since September 2024, pointing to a notable slowdown in domestic demand.
On the central bank front, Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid reiterated his hawkish stance, saying tighter monetary policy is needed to bring inflation, which he described as too high, back to the 2% target, and adding that artificial intelligence related investment is also contributing to price pressures. Separately, the People's Bank of China set its daily USD/CNY reference rate at a fresh 41 month high for the yuan.
In earnings news, SpaceX delivered a strong debut as a public company, with second quarter revenue of $7.8 billion, up 92% year on year and comfortably ahead of the $6.81 billion estimate, while its AI segment posted a narrower than expected operating loss of $1.26 billion against a forecast $2.39 billion loss, and adjusted EBITDA reached $3.5 billion. AMD also topped expectations, with adjusted earnings per share of $1.66 versus $1.62 expected and revenue of $11.54 billion beating the $11.31 billion forecast, while holding its operating margin at 27.0% and guiding third quarter revenue to a range of $12.70 billion to $13.30 billion, above the $12.51 billion consensus.
CADJPY currency pair recently reversed from the support zone between the key support level 111.85 (which has been reversing the price from January), 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from October and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The upward reversal from the support level 111.85 stopped the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1.
Given the strength of the support level 111.85 bullish Canadian dollar sentiment seen today, CADJPY currency pair can be expected to further to the next resistance level 113.30.
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On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7889 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7917 and 6.7480 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Unemployment hits highest level since June 2015 Underutilisation jumps despite stronger-than-expected hiring\ Kiwi swaps retreat as rate bets unwind AUD/NZD rebounds after support holds Labour market slack builds New Zealand's unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in over a decade in the June quarter, reinforcing the view that abundant labour market slack leaves little risk of a wage breakout that could reignite domestic inflationary pressures.
The unemployment rate climbed to 5.6% in the June quarter, the highest level since the June quarter of 2015, comfortably above the 5.4% expected by both markets and RBNZ. Broader measures softened too, with the underutilisation rate climbing to 13.8% from 12.9%. This measure includes unemployed, people wanting more hours and those on the sidelines available for work, making it a broader gauge of spare capacity in the labour market.
Source: StatsNZ, FOREX.com
Despite the increase in slack, the report masked what was a strong quarter for hiring. Employment increased 0.5%, more than double the 0.2% gain expected by markets and well above the 0.1% increase forecast by the RBNZ. Over the year, it grew by 1.2%.
The reason unemployment increased was a sharp lift in labour force participation, with the rate jumping to 70.7%, well above the 70.3% expected by both markets and the RBNZ. More people entered the workforce than the economy was able to absorb, leaving unemployment and underutilisation higher.
Wage growth wasn't a game changer either. While private sector labour cost inflation edged above the RBNZ's forecast at 2.0% year-on-year, it remains at levels inconsistent with the type of wage breakout that could fuel domestic inflationary pressures.
Markets may have overcooked the RBNZ Despite the softness of the report, it is unlikely to derail the near-term RBNZ outlook with another 25 basis point rate increase still highly likely at next month's meeting, fitting with the hawkish bias delivered in July when policymakers began the tightening cycle.
At the conclusion of that meeting, the RBNZ said "with inflation still above target and economic activity expected to strengthen, some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required to return inflation to the 2 percent target mid-point", while adding that future cash rate decisions would depend on incoming data, price-setting behaviour and the strength of economic activity.
Beyond next month's meeting, today's data does raise fresh questions over how far rates will ultimately need to move beyond neutral, estimated by the RBNZ to be around 3%.
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
That was reflected in New Zealand's two-year swap rate, a key market gauge of expectations for the future path of the cash rate. The rate fell to 3.61% following the release, the lowest level since mid-July after briefly dipping beneath 3.60%. That's a notable reversal given it traded as high as 3.78% in late July as markets ramped up expectations for a more aggressive tightening cycle.
The move matters because two-year swap rates heavily influence the pricing of fixed-rate mortgages in New Zealand, making them one of the primary channels through which changes in RBNZ policy are transmitted to households and the broader economy.
Risk appetite calls the shots for NZD/USD
Source: TradingView
For NZD/USD, the domestic rates story is superseded by broader risk appetite as the primary directional driver, helping to explain why the Kiwi has only edged lower following the labour market report.
More importantly, the pullback has done little to threaten last week's break above resistance at 0.5860. Having bounced from around that level in each of the past two sessions, it remains the immediate level to watch on the downside. Below, the confluence of the 50 and 100-day moving averages, along with minor support at 0.5825, marks the next downside zone of note before the uptrend from the June lows comes into view.
On the topside, the pair stalled above 0.5900 on Monday, leaving that and more persistent resistance at 0.5920 as the immediate hurdles. A break above the latter would open the door for a retest of the 0.5992 double top established earlier this year.
Momentum indicators continue to favour buying dips over selling rallies. RSI (14) remains above the neutral 50 level despite losing some upside momentum in recent sessions, while MACD continues to hold above both its signal line and zero, maintaining the bullish bias established in early July.
AUD/NZD tries to turn the tide
Source: TradingView
Where relative rate expectations matter far more is in the crosses, including AUD/NZD. Combined with stronger-than-expected Australian household spending data for June released on Tuesday, New Zealand's soft labour market report has helped the pair rebound after a failed attempt to break below support at 1.1935.
Having held on this occasion, AUD/NZD is now pushing back towards 1.2000. Above there, former support at 1.2053 is the next hurdle, followed by the confluence of the 50 and 100-day moving averages and horizontal resistance at 1.2115.
Should the broader downtrend reassert itself, the recent lows beneath 1.1935 and the nearby 200-day moving average remain the immediate downside focus.
Momentum indicators have become less bearish in recent sessions. RSI (14) has turned higher from oversold territory and is pushing back towards the neutral 50 level, while MACD has started to curl back towards its signal line while remaining in negative territory. It suggests downside momentum is fading, leaving the near-term directional outlook looking far more balanced than it did only a few days ago.
BOJ misses chance to back stronger yen Weak JGB demand reinforces higher yield pressure Intervention changes little beneath the surface 200DMA becomes pivotal for USD/JPY The macro backdrop hasn't changed Despite all the headlines, speculation and the artificial move lower in yen pairs over the past week following the first coordinated intervention between the US and Japan in decades, the truth is that the fundamental backdrop that drove USD/JPY and other yen crosses higher has barely changed. That leaves me thinking it's only a matter of when, not if, USD/JPY and other yen crosses resume the gradual grind higher that was underway before the intervention episode.
Japan's policy problem It's hardly a revolutionary view, but Japan continues to run some of the loosest monetary policy settings in the developed world. Interest rates remain well below those elsewhere, real rates are still negative and the Bank of Japan passed up what looked like the perfect opportunity last week to send a shot across the bows that it was serious about continuing to normalise policy, instead producing another muddled and cautious performance even though markets have more than one full hike priced into the OIS curve by December.
Why not just get on with it? Inflation has been above target for years and the yen has been weakening for even longer. Yet instead of tackling one of the underlying drivers through faster policy normalisation, Japanese authorities, backed by the United States, opted to intervene in the FX market instead.
Fiscal policy isn't helping the yen's cause either. While Japan isn't running the most expansionary fiscal settings relative to other developed economies, it's the starting point that matters. Government debt is already enormous, leaving the country far more vulnerable than most if an external shock were to emerge. That's one reason investors continue demanding higher yields to own Japanese government debt.
Yesterday's weak 10-year JGB auction reinforced that message. Demand softened noticeably, with the bid-to-cover ratio slipping to 2.56 from 3.13 at the previous sale, while the auction tail blew out to its widest since August 2024, signalling investors demanded greater compensation to absorb the debt ahead of Thursday's 30-year auction.
Then there's the buoyancy of global markets. Risk appetite continues to rip higher, encouraging investors to borrow in one of the world's cheapest funding currencies and invest elsewhere. That's carry trade 101. As long as Japan continues to offer ultra-low interest rates, volatility suppressed while asset prices remain well supported, one of the structural forces that has weighed on the yen remains firmly in place.
No such thing as a free lunch US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent attempted to justify the rationale behind US involvement in the first coordinated intervention with Japan in decades during a CNBC interview overnight. He spoke about preserving financial stability across Asia, giving Japan the breathing room to continue investing overseas and expressed confidence that the BOJ would ultimately do what was right for the Japanese economy.
But if I'm being honest, I don't think the explanation stacks up, or at least not entirely. The most interesting part of the interview wasn't what Bessent said, it was what he didn't. There was no mention whatsoever of the risk that Japan, left to defend the yen on its own, may eventually have been forced to sell US dollar assets to fund further intervention.
Instead, he repeatedly returned to Japan's ability to continue investing in the United States, immediately catching my attention given the enormous investment commitments made under last year's trade agreement. Call me cynical, but this administration has shown time and again there's no such thing as a free lunch. If it's prepared to scratch your back, it's usually because there's something much larger in it for the US. Protecting those investment flows while the long end of the US Treasury curve is already under pressure may have been every bit as important as stabilising the yen itself.
Where did the correlations go? Looking ahead, despite the apparent rationale behind the decision, there's no guarantee the intervention marks the start of a more sustained move lower in USD/JPY. Traditional macro drivers have shown little to no relationship with the pair recently.
Source: Tradingview
As the correlation matrix above highlights, yield differentials, Fed pricing, index futures and energy prices have shown little to no relationship with USD/JPY over both the short and medium-term, while volatility measures are providing mixed and incoherent messaging. That suggests the argument that a softer run of US economic data or stronger Japanese data will be enough to trigger a sustained decline in USD/JPY is not overly convincing.
Eyes on the US calendar
Source: TradingView
More broadly, the direction of the US dollar is likely to be influenced by the incoming economic data flow. Some of the softness overnight coincided with a notable pullback in Fed rate expectations, with pricing for the June meeting next year falling to around 44 basis points, down more than 10 basis points from where it sat a week ago. That likely reflects the sharp decline in energy prices over recent days rather than anything contained in Tuesday's JOLTS report.
Source: TradingView
ADP employment will be watched closely after doing a reasonable job of predicting private sector payrolls growth in the official government figures in recent months. ISM services PMI is also important given the sector's significance to the broader US economy, with the prices paid and new orders components likely to provide the best read on inflationary pressures and the near-term growth outlook.
In Japan, wages data is unlikely to move the dial on its own. However, it remains a necessary ingredient if the BOJ is to continue normalising policy, relying on firmer wage growth to support demand, generate inflationary pressures and create the virtuous cycle policymakers have been trying to encourage.
Déjà vu for USD/JPY
Source: TradingView
USD/JPY staged a dramatic bounce from the support zone beneath 155.60 on Monday after what looked like a third straight day of intervention. Importantly, that's almost exactly where the pair stabilised after the intervention episode in late April and early May before going on to fully retrace the move over subsequent weeks.
Monday's capitulation-style candle was followed immediately by a bullish engulfing candle on Tuesday, suggesting selling pressure may already be fading. The price now finds itself wedged beneath an important resistance zone formed by the 200-day simple moving average and 157.92, the breakout level that paved the way for the surge to fresh multi-decade highs following the April-May intervention episode.
Given the historical significance of those levels, I get the sense the resistance zone overhead, particularly the 200-day moving average, will act like a dam wall. If the price can break and hold above it, it would reinforce the view the intervention episode is over for now, opening the door for a push towards the 100-day moving average near 160 before bringing the former record high at 160.73, a level that has acted as both support and resistance this year, into view.
While RSI (14) and MACD have weakened sharply following the intervention-induced flush of speculative longs, that alone shouldn't be interpreted as a signal the downside move will persist. If anything, the violent washout leaves positioning looking far less stretched than it did only a week ago. If renewed selling does emerge, which at this stage feels like the less likely outcome, the support zone beneath 155.60 remains the level to watch.
EUR/JPY eyes further retracement
Source: TradingView
The technical picture for EUR/JPY is similar, with a bullish engulfing candle printing on Tuesday and the pair now sitting just beneath 182, a level that acted as support for extended periods earlier this year before giving way during the intervention episode.
Like USD/JPY, that resistance zone feels like a dam wall. If the price can break and hold above 182, it would reinforce the bullish engulfing signal, opening the door for a push towards the 200-day simple moving average at 183.70. Beyond that, the confluence of the 50 and 100-day simple moving averages around 185 comes into view, followed by 186, another level of note given it acted as resistance for extended periods before flipping to support ahead of the intervention episode.
On the downside, the pair bounced violently after a brief foray beneath 180 during Monday's likely intervention. That leaves the area around 180 as the first support zone to watch, followed by 178.83, the breakout level from October last year.
Gold price (XAU/USD) declines to near $4,070 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal fluctuates as traders weigh the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate path amid uncertainty in the Middle East.
The Guardian reported on Tuesday that US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there has been progress made in discussions with Iran and Oman on getting more ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but no final agreement has been reached. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington could reach a deal with Tehran by tomorrow to reopen the critical waterway.
Cooling US-Iran tensions could ease energy-driven inflation fears and prompt traders to pare bets on further Fed interest-rate increases. This, in turn, could provide some support to the non-yielding Gold. Markets have priced in nearly a 60% chance that the US central bank will hike rates at the September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Nonetheless, the uncertainty in the Middle East remains high as there are no direct talks between the US and Iran. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry stated that efforts to resolve the US-Iran conflict are “in very progressive stages,” adding that drafts of a potential agreement are “being circulated” but that there are no direct talks between the two sides. Traders will closely monitor the developments surrounding US-Iran talks.
Markets might turn cautious later this week ahead of the crucial US employment data, which is due on Friday. This report could offer further clues on the Fed’s monetary path.
“Anything that shows economic weakness is probably accretive to gold, mainly because it reduces the likelihood or the need for the central bank to act on interest rates,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.
Gold steadies as geopolitical relief meets US rate uncertaintyING strategist Ewa Manthey notes that gold’s recent recovery remains constrained by conflicting drivers, with the metal “likely to remain caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and ongoing uncertainty over US interest rates.” While easing Middle East tensions and softer inflation pressures have underpinned the latest bounce, Manthey cautions that expectations of US rates staying higher for longer continue to cap the scope for further gains in bullion.
Technical Analysis: Gold keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA
In the daily chart, XAU/USD keeps a bearish near-term tone as it sits below the 100-day Moving Average (MA). The Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.71 remains neutral, hinting at consolidative momentum rather than a clear directional push.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the Bollinger upper band near $4,140, with a stronger cap at the 100-day MA around $4,405, where sellers are likely to defend the broader downtrend. On the downside, the first support is aligned with the Bollinger middle band at $4,060, followed by the $4,000 psychological level. The next contention emerges at the lower band around $3,980, where a break would open the door to a more pronounced bearish extension.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The EUR/JPY buyers stop the bleeding after three consecutive days of losses, registering modest gains of 0.56% on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at around 181.90 after US and Japanese authorities intervened in the FX markets to propel the Japanese Yen against its pairs.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookFollowing last week’s intervention, the EUR/JPY shifted from bullish to sideways trading, slightly tilted to the downside, after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). Momentum suggests further downside, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) tumbles toward oversold territory.
For a bearish continuation, sellers must clear the figure at 180.00. Beneath this area lies the August 3 cycle low of 179.3, ahead of the October 30, 2025, high at 178.82
On the other hand, for a bullish resumption, traders must push EUR/JPY above the 182.00 level, followed by 183.00. Above these two milestones sits the 200-day SMA at 183.74.
EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily
EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The USD/CHF retraced on Tuesday, down 0.16%, as the US Dollar weakened amid improved risk appetite, driven by renewed hopes of a US-Israel peace deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. The pair trades below 0.8100.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical outlookAfter falling below a support trendline connecting the lows of June and mid-July, the USD/CHF turned bearish in the short-term, with the next key support seen at the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8042. This is further confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which turned bearish.
Despite this, the overall market structure remains constructive, having registered a series of successive higher highs and higher lows, indicating that the uptrend remains intact.
For USD/CHF to turn bearish, it needs to clear the 50-day SMA, then the 0.8000 mark. Below is the 100-day SMA at 0.7957, immediately followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.7929. On further weakness, the next stop would be the 0.7900 figure.
To continue bullish momentum, USD/CHF must reclaim 0.8100 and break through 0.8150. Once above, it faces the 0.8200 level, then the yearly high at 0.8207. Beyond that, key resistance points are the psychological thresholds at 0.8250 and 0.8300.
USD/CHF Price Chart – Daily
USD/CHF daily chart Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.19%-0.11%0.36%0.13%-0.65%-0.37%-0.17%EUR0.19%0.06%0.58%0.32%-0.48%-0.20%0.03%GBP0.11%-0.06%0.51%0.26%-0.53%-0.26%-0.03%JPY-0.36%-0.58%-0.51%-0.24%-1.02%-0.77%-0.43%CAD-0.13%-0.32%-0.26%0.24%-0.78%-0.52%-0.29%AUD0.65%0.48%0.53%1.02%0.78%0.26%0.49%NZD0.37%0.20%0.26%0.77%0.52%-0.26%0.24%CHF0.17%-0.03%0.03%0.43%0.29%-0.49%-0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
Improving risk sentiment helped lift the Australian dollar after easing Middle East tensions and stronger US economic data. While AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD all advanced, each cross is approaching important technical levels that could determine whether the rally extends or fades.
View related analysis:
Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Plunge Loses Steam, but Risks Remain USD at a Crossroads: Can EUR/USD and AUD/USD Extend Their Gains? FX Futures Positioning: Yen, Euro Bears Caught Short | COT report Risk Sentiment Drives the Australian Dollar Higher Middle East Optimism Lifts Global Risk Sentiment Prospects that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen boosted risk appetite on Tuesday, lifting Wall Street sentiment. ISM manufacturing PMI also edged higher to 55.6 from 53.3. Employment expanded, new orders ticked higher and prices paid ticked lower, albeit from elevated levels. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones reached record highs, while the Nasdaq closed in on 30,000. The SPI 200 rose 0.4% overnight, which should see the ASX 200 gap higher and place its all-time high within a day's typical trading range.
Antipodeans Lead as Yen Lags AUD/USD and NZD/USD were the strongest FX majors as the antipodeans embraced the positive lead from the Middle East headlines. Whether that proves to be another false start, however, risks reversing that sentiment. The Japanese yen was the weakest FX major, although its losses were marginal as traders likely remained wary of betting against the combined might of the MOF and the Fed. USD/JPY edged higher in line with yesterday's bias, although resistance emerged around the first zone, which includes the 200-day moving averages near 157.80. I suspect bears are seeking evidence of swing highs around resistance levels, with 158.00, 159.00 and 159.40 the main contenders.
Source: LSEG
Australian Dollar Technical Setups AUD/USD Presses Against Key Resistance The Aussie has so far held up well against the US dollar's mild bullish retracement. Given the AU-US two-year yield spread has risen so far this week, perhaps a breakout is on the cards in the near term. For now, AUD/USD continues to respect the June VPOC as resistance, and even if bulls break above it, they still have the monthly R1 pivot point and the June 15 high to contend with. A break above 0.7100 could provide the first real test of this risk-on rally.
For now, however, my bias remains for a swing high to form and for AUD/USD to snap its four-week winning streak. The RBA seems unlikely to hike again this cycle, while futures traders continue to increase their bearish bets against the Australian dollar, according to recent Commitment of Traders (COT) data.
Source: ICE, TradingView
AUD/JPY Bounce Faces Heavy Resistance After its worst five-day run in 15 months, AUD/JPY found support at its 200-day moving averages and formed a bullish engulfing day. Under normal circumstances, this could provide the foundation for a decent rebound, but traders are right to remain wary of betting against the Japanese yen too aggressively given the scale of currency intervention over the past week. I therefore suspect that, as with USD/JPY, bears may be looking to fade rallies around resistance levels.
Tuesday's high stalled around the July low, the 111.00 handle and the prior intervention level. The monthly pivot point also sits just beneath the 112.00 handle, while the July VPOC is near 112.50. Ultimately, bears have several notable resistance levels to monitor for evidence of a potential swing high.
Source: ICE, TradingView
AUD/NZD Bears Defend the 1.20 Handle The Aussie is in a clear downtrend against the Kiwi dollar on the daily chart, although it is trying to form a swing low. Monday's bearish outside candle met resistance at the 1.20 handle before closing beneath the March low, although Tuesday's bullish inside day suggests a tentative attempt to form a trough.
Today's New Zealand employment figures could determine whether hawkish RBNZ bets help push AUD/NZD towards the 200-day moving averages at 1.1556, or whether bulls have another crack at 1.20. But until we see a break or daily close above 1.20, risks remain skewed to the downside, with a break beneath the 200-day moving averages bringing 1.18 into focus.
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView $4,166 Test Comes into View It is interesting to note that the 50-day moving average has now fallen to the next key price target at the recent lower swing high of $4,166. That adds to the significance of that resistance area and therefore to the importance of the price response there, which could show strong resistance or a decisive breakout above that key pivot zone. The falling 50-day moving average was recognized as resistance several times recently during short-term upswings. A decisive reclaim of the average would therefore be significant, while another rejection would reinforce its role as resistance. A breakout above it would likely signal that the downtrend is weakening and the developing advance is strengthening.
A Break Above $4,203 Changes the Picture The more significant lower swing high is at $4,203, which is part of the bearish trend structure and therefore represents a key initial upside target. A rally above it will signal a reversal of the nearby downtrend and open the door to further strengthening. If this occurs, the first upside target is near the lower swing high of $4,382 and the 100-day moving average near $4,403 and falling. For now, the ability to hold above the 20-day moving average keeps that bullish scenario alive, with a move through $4,166 and then $4,203 providing progressively stronger confirmation.
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US Dollar Talking Points: The carry trade in USD/JPY has been building for more than five years now and the Japanese Yen weakness that’s seen the pair rise by more than 50% over that time is a large point of imbalance across global foreign exchange markets. The Bank of Japan has no dire need for near-term rate hikes, as Japanese inflation is currently at 1.6-1.7%. They also have an inflation target of 2% but unlike the US, inflation is currently subdued below that waypoint. Nonetheless, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent hinted that Japanese officials should look to tighter policy following the posture around interventions last week after the FOMC and BoJ rate decisions.
It’s truly a conundrum for the Bank of Japan. On one hand, they’d probably prefer it if the Japanese Yen didn’t weaken dramatically against global currencies, like the US Dollar. But on the other, there’s no pressing demand for a rate hike as their inflation levels remain below the bank’s 2% target.
Allowing the currency to fall rapidly runs the risk of bringing on unsavory levels of inflation, which would require rate hikes and, in-turn, a threat to Japanese growth. And for a country with an aging and declining population who spent decades struggling with deflation and disinflation, risking that growth is a pretty unsavory concept particularly when there’s not a massive current demand for such.
On the part of the United States, however, there’s a couple of reasons that they would want to see some form of action. The USD/JPY spot rate sits near recently-established 40-year highs. As the second largest component of the DXY basket, the significant JPY weakness of the past five years has kept the value of DXY elevated, which makes trade a more difficult venture for the United States as exported products are more expensive and imports are relatively cheaper.
But perhaps the biggest risk – is that if Japanese policymakers wanted to continue to try to have their cake and eat it too, by using interventions to run stops on market participants while trying to draw some artificial line in the sand, without hiking rates to address the fundamental divergence between the two economies rate policies – that would probably entail Japan selling US Treasuries. And that would mean even higher US Treasury yields, and we’ve already seen the 30-year bond push up to a fresh 19-year high.
So this is really a story wrapped in intrigue and it can have repercussions far and wide depending on how aggressively it spins out of control.
That global carry trade is, in essence, a form of leverage. We saw what happens when just some of that leverage gets taken out back in July of 2024, when the BoJ intervened on the morning of a US CPI print and despite markets finally getting the confirmation they needed that rate cuts were on the way, the Nasdaq 100 put in a bearish engulf and then sold off with aggression over the next few weeks.
The reason was some of that leverage brought upon by the carry trade was taken out as USD/JPY unwound, and that hit levered markets like high flying AI tech stocks until calm started to return on the morning of August 5th.
We’re not at that point yet, but if Scott Bessent has his way the situation could produce unwelcome and unexpected repercussions fairly soon.
Where this matters for the US Dollar – it’s been obvious for some time that the current administration would like a weaker USD. Trump has said as much, extolling the benefit of a weak currency for exporting goods while making domestic goods more competitive on a cost basis. Those efforts have largely fallen flat over the past year-and-change as the USD is roughly flat since last April, and a big reason why is the run in USD/JPY which extended after last year’s election of Sanae Takaichi, thereby putting both central banks in a precarious spot.
For now, it’s difficult to get too excited about USD/JPY above 160.00 as that’s the type of level that may evoke another intervention or a threat of such. Meanwhile, the fundamental bias remains tilted to the long side of the pair and thusly, for the US Dollar as a whole, there’s a lean towards trend strategies for short-term strength and breakout strategies for broader weakness.
US Dollar Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY
Last week was one of the largest red bars in USD/JPY since that July 2024 episode, and already for this week it looks like bulls are starting to make a return. It’s still too early to say that the dust has settled but it also highlights what I was talking about in the weekend video, where interventions at or around that 155.00 level seem to make little sense. Thus, we’ve seen buyers return to bid the dip but what remains to be seen is whether there is another swing of intervention above 158 or perhaps upon a test of the 160.00 handle.
USD/JPY Weekly Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Despite the Euro being a 57.6% allocation of the DXY basket it really does feel like the larger currency pair is along for the ride.
This makes sense if we consider that USD/JPY is up more than 50% over the past five years – and given that the only thing that can actually push price in a real market is demand it highlights that there’s still an imbalance of longs v/s shorts. And when that comes into question, even just a little bit, that USD-selling could happen across currency pairs and not just against the Japanese Yen.
I talked about this in last week’s webinar and I reiterated it this week. At this point it’s the 1.1500 level in EUR/USD that’s held the lows now for two consecutive days and there’s bullish structure in place down to the Friday swing low of 1.1455.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview GBP/USD Cable built in a similar falling wedge into the Fed last week, and the response there was perhaps even more emphatic as buyers pounced on the bullish reversal. The challenge now for the pair is that 1.3500 level but there’s higher-low support potential around 1.3390 for bullish continuation scenarios.
GBP/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/CAD USD/CAD looks somewhat calm on a relative basis, following last week’s test and hold a the 1.4000 level. Following that test on Thursday, we’ve had higher lows, illustrating an element of bullish anticipation as buyers have stepped in with a bit more aggression over the past couple of days. This keeps the door open for short-term strength and for those looking for USD-strength, this may be a less chaotic backdrop than what showed in USD/JPY and perhaps a bit cleaner than EUR/USD or perhaps even GBP/USD which are vying for possible bullish trend scenarios.
USD/CAD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Scotiabank’s Global FX Strategy team notes that Sterling remains modestly firmer, with GBP/USD continuing to pivot around long-term moving averages near 1.34. Short-term technicals are described as neutral to bullish, with last week’s rise and trend oscillators hinting at upside potential toward 1.3555/1.3560, while support is identified around 1.3390/1.3400.
Sterling holds near key averages"Sterling is modestly firmer on the session but trading is limited, with no UK data reports this morning to drive volatility. UK Gilts are underperforming European bonds somewhat but EUR/GBP is largely stable."
"Neutral/bullish—Sterling continues to chop around the 100- and 200-day moving averages (both close to 1.34) as the flat, broad range trade in place over the past few months continues to play out."
"A solid rise in Cable last week and bullish leaning (but still weak) trend oscillators suggest some upside potential for the pound, however."
"Gains through the low 1.35 zone should allow spot to retest the recent peak around 1.3555/60. Support is 1.3390/00."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The daily RSI reads 86.56, which is well into the overbought territory. A drop back down below 70 could be a confirmation that momentum is reversing in the bearish direction.
The most immediate risk to USD/TRY’s bullish trend is a sustained U.S-Iran ceasefire, with news reports about ongoing talks between both countries, and President Trump calling it Iran’s last chance to secure a deal. If a deal is eventually reached and tensions ease, the crude premium that has kept Turkey’s inflation high will soften, and the lira could strengthen against the dollar.
USD/TRY Long-Term Outlook: Does the Bigger Picture Still Favor the Dollar? Zooming out on the USD/TRY monthly chart to see the bigger picture reveals a relentless upward climb that has been going on for years. The monthly EMA bands are also widely spread apart, with price sitting well above all four lines.
The August monthly candle has also flipped bullish and broken past the upper wick of last month’s candle, cementing the near-term bullish thesis. And as long as TCMB’s interest rates remain high and inflation doesn’t come down, the pair could keep climbing into the high-40s over the coming months, favoring the dollar over the lira.
Gold (XAU/USD) advances some 0.75% on Tuesday as Oil prices fall, along with US Treasury yields. Also, an improvement in risk appetite propelled the yellow metal to a two-day peak of $4,106.
XAU/USD advances as Hormuz reopening hopes weigh in Oil, ease inflation pressuresThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s value against six other currencies, is down 0.05% amid growing speculation for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Recently, an Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that Iran and Oman continue talks on the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IRIB. Tehran is reportedly weighing whether to allow Europe to clear mines in the Strait, while US President Donald Trump reposted an article from August 2, titled “Trump: Deal is imminent as Iran talks restart Monday on denuclearisation.”
In June, the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) declined from 7.537 million to 7.359 million, missing the forecast of 7.4 million. The low number of layoffs indicates minimal firing and hiring activity, with roughly one vacancy per unemployed person, signaling a balanced labor market.
The US Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit for June decreased from -$77.6 billion to -$73.3 billion, slightly higher than the estimate of -$73 billion.
Now eyes are on the ADP Employment Change for July, with private companies expected to have hired 70K people, down from the 98K jobs created in June. After this, the focus shifts to jobless claims on Thursday, followed by the release of Nonfarm Payrolls for July, with the US economy expected to add 80K workers to the workforce.
Worth noting, bullion prices are set to edge higher if crude prices continue to tumble. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, lost nearly 5% to $76.09 per barrel, pushing US yields lower, as markets expect lower inflationary prints. The US 10-year T-note collapses by 10 basis points to 4.687%,
Money markets are pricing in a nearly 59% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise rates at the September 16 meeting, according to Prime Terminal. For the December meeting, the odds for a rate hike are 83%.
Source: Prime TerminalAside from this, on Monday, the New York Fed President John Williams expressed optimism that inflation pressures are expected to decrease gradually. However, he emphasised that if inflation does not subside as hoped, the US central bank is prepared to respond with rate hikes.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold threatens to clear $4,100, despite remaining bearishGold price is consolidating but approaching $4,100 for the first time since last Friday. Momentum is turning bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is about to clear the 50-neutral level, a sign used by some traders to buy the yellow metal.
Despite this, the market structure is respecting the successive series of lower highs and lower lows, but if XAU/USD clears the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,156, followed by the July 6 cycle high at $4,202, the yellow metal will shift to neutral-upward.
For a bearish continuation, Gold must extend its losses below the August 3 daily low of $4,019. A breach of the latter exposes $4,000, followed by the June 17 low of $3,959.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Over the last few sessions, the USD/CAD has seen a slight appreciation of nearly 0.3% in favor of the US dollar. However, beyond this mild bias, the broader chart picture reflects a prolonged consolidation. Central bank dynamics, bond market behavior, and geopolitical caution in the Middle East are keeping volatility in check. As long as these catalysts remain in play, sideways trading could continue to dominate the pair's short-term swings.
How Are Central Bank Dynamics Holding Up? A key factor here is the interest rate differential. While the benchmark rate in the United States holds steady at 3.75%, Canada's remains stable at 2.25%. This gap has been a major driver behind the Canadian dollar's depreciation over the past few months, simply because US dollar-denominated assets remain much more attractive to investors.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada isn't signaling any surprise pivots. Following its latest decision, the central bank acknowledged a slight economic improvement that rules out any drastic shifts in monetary policy. In fact, the market is pricing in an 80% probability that the rate will stay put at 2.25% during the September meeting, reflecting expectations of a neutral stance with no major short-term adjustments.
In the United States, while the odds of aggressive hikes have also cooled off, the picture looks a bit different. According to CMEGROUP, there is still a 56.9% chance that the Federal Reserve will opt for a rate hike in September, pushing the benchmark rate toward the 4.00% zone. This keeps the prospect alive that the US central bank could turn out to be more hawkish than its Canadian counterpart in the coming months.
Source: CMEGROUP
Given the caution from both institutions, bond market dynamics in the two countries have largely converged. Over the last few sessions, the 10-year bond yield in the United States has dropped from the 4.7% area, while Canada is seeing a similar slide from its peak of 3.66%. Moving in the same direction, neither market offers the kind of standout appeal that would trigger a massive capital flow into either currency. Still, the yield spread continues to favor the United States, which keeps a lid on any sustained rally for the Canadian dollar.
Source: TradingEconomics
All in all, the cross remains stuck in a cautious holding pattern. The lack of bond market catalysts and the conservative tone from central banks suggest that consolidation could continue to dominate the USD/CAD. That said, if the Federal Reserve adopts a more hawkish tone, the rate differential would widen, making it harder for the Canadian dollar to recover and potentially reigniting buying pressure on the pair in the coming weeks.
Is the Middle East Becoming Relevant Again?
The geopolitical backdrop is also playing a major role. The US government, under President Trump, decided to pause strikes and resume negotiations in the Middle East, with countries like Qatar announcing progress in the talks. This de-escalation has pushed WTI crude back below the $80 mark, easing the global risk premium.
Rather than giving the USD/CAD a clear direction, this event has actually deepened the sideways trend. On one hand, lower risk aversion cuts down the demand for the US dollar as a safe haven, which would theoretically favor the Canadian dollar. On the flip side, cheaper oil hurts Canada, where crude exports make up nearly 20% of its trade balance. This drop weighs on the country's economic outlook for 2026 and dampens confidence in its currency.
Bottom line, geopolitical tensions are breeding more caution than aggressive moves. As long as negotiations keep rolling without any major hiccups, indecision could keep setting the pace for the USD/CAD, at least until a heavier macroeconomic data release manages to grab the market's attention.
USD/CAD Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Lack of clear direction becoming evident: Despite recent recovery attempts, the broader USD/CAD picture remains trapped in indecision. Price action is failing to define a clear trend, paving the way for a potential sideways range. Until a stronger directional push emerges, this consolidation could remain the dominant theme on the chart.
RSI: The indicator is hovering near the neutral 50 level and showing a noticeable flattening. This reflects a balance between buying and selling momentum over the last few sessions. If this behavior persists, it could continue to highlight a potential phase of sideways trading or relevant neutrality on the chart.
MACD: The histogram sits right near the neutral 0 line, suggesting a balance in short-term moving average momentum. This technical reading reinforces the expectation that indecision could remain a key feature in the upcoming trading sessions.
Key Levels:
1.42132 (Key Resistance): The 2026 high zone and the chart's main bullish barrier. A sustained move toward this level could reignite the bullish bias and open the door to reclaiming the uptrend line that dominated a few weeks back.
1.41266 (Nearby Barrier): Aligns with recent highs and acts as a key retracement zone. If the price fails to break cleanly away from this level, it could exacerbate the sideways chop and confirm a short-term consolidation range.
1.39926 (Crucial Support): A major support level matching recent lows below the 50-period moving average. A breakdown below this point could trigger a sharper bearish phase and activate a short-term downtrend line.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
USD/JPY trades modestly higher on Tuesday despite a softer US Dollar (USD), as the impact of recent intervention fades and the Japanese Yen (JPY) comes under pressure again. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 157.60, recovering after briefly falling toward 155 on Monday, its lowest level since May 6.
Analysts at Societe Generale argue that a lasting recovery in the Yen will hinge on the domestic growth story rather than policy theatrics, maintaining that “what will trigger a durable yen rally will be a rise in consensus forecasts of Japanese growth, rather than more, bigger intervention, coordinated or otherwise.”
They add that “more, or faster BoJ rate hikes won’t solve the problem either, unless the Japanese growth outlook makes them appear realistic,” cautioning that “if Japanese growth remains weak, higher JGB yields will increasingly be unhelpful for the yen.”
In contrast, strategists at BBH focus on the near-term impact of recent official action, noting that “the coordinated US-Japan intervention – and officials’ warning that they stand ready to act again – significantly raises the cost of fighting a stronger yen and puts a much firmer ceiling on USD/JPY.”
From a technical perspective, the intervention-driven pullback in USD/JPY has weakened the near-term bullish structure, with the pair slipping below key moving averages.
On the daily chart, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 158 offers immediate resistance. Further up, the 100-day SMA at 160 guards the path toward the 50-day SMA at 161.26 and the 21-day SMA at 161.89, ahead of a more distant structural hurdle at 164.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 27 signals oversold conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero, reflecting the recent shift in momentum to the downside.
On the downside, the 155.00 psychological mark offers immediate support. A decisive break below this level could expose the 152.50 area, with the 150.00 psychological mark emerging as the next major downside target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%-0.06%0.25%0.18%-0.59%-0.34%-0.09%EUR0.15%0.06%0.44%0.32%-0.45%-0.22%0.07%GBP0.06%-0.06%0.36%0.27%-0.50%-0.27%0.00%JPY-0.25%-0.44%-0.36%-0.09%-0.85%-0.64%-0.24%CAD-0.18%-0.32%-0.27%0.09%-0.77%-0.55%-0.26%AUD0.59%0.45%0.50%0.85%0.77%0.22%0.51%NZD0.34%0.22%0.27%0.64%0.55%-0.22%0.29%CHF0.09%-0.07%-0.01%0.24%0.26%-0.51%-0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovers some ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, up 0.14%, as US jobs data was softer than expected but confirmed the strength of the labor market, with layoffs being little changed. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3451 after rebounding from 1.3419. Read More...
British Pound finds footing at 1.3420 with markets awaiting US Job Openings dataThe British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, reaching session highs above 1.3440 after finding support at the 1.3420 area earlier on the day. A mild risk appetite amid market hopes of a negotiated breakthrough in Iran and investors’ cautiousness ahead of key US labour market releases are keeping US Dollar bulls subdued on Tuesday. Read More...
British Pound weakens below 1.3450 as US-Iran uncertainty boosts safe-haven US DollarThe GBP/USD pair loses ground to near 1.3425 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran talks drives traders toward a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) against the British Pound (GBP). All eyes will be on the US July jobs data, which is due later on Friday. Read More...
Key Points:EUR/USD gained ground as traders focused on U.S. job market data. GBP/USD moved higher, supported by falling Treasury yields. USD/JPY made an attempt to settle above the 158.00 level as the market stabilized after recent intervention.
U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As JOLTs Job Openings Miss Estimates
DXY 040826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders react to the weaker-than-expected JOLTs Job Openings report. The report indicated that JOLTs Job Openings declined from 7.537 million (revised from 7.594 million) to 7.359 million, compared to analyst forecast of 7.4 million.
In case U.S. Dollar Index pulls back below the 99.85 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range. On the upside, a move above the 100.00 level will push U.S. Dollar Index towards the resistance at 100.50 – 100.65.
EUR/USD Tests The 1.1525 Level
EUR/USD 040826 4h Chart EUR/USD gains ground as traders focus on U.S. job market data and react to U.S. Factory Orders report. The report showed that Factory Orders decreased by -0.3% month-over-month in June, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%. The weaker-than-expected report put additional pressure on the American currency.
EUR/USD continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.1510 – 1.1525. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1525 level, it will head towards the next resistance at 1.1600 – 1.1615.
GBP/USD Gains Ground As Treasury Yields Fall GBP/USD 040826 4h Chart GBP/USD is moving higher as traders focus on the strong pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.20% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.63%.
The nearest resistance level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3465 – 1.3480 range. A successful test of this level will push GBP/USD towards the next resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/CAD Moves Higher As Rebound Continues USD/CAD 040826 4h Chart USD/CAD continues to rebound despite the better-than-expected Manufacturing PMI report from Canada. The report showed that Manufacturing PMI improved from 53.0 in June to 53.5 in July, while analysts expected that it would drop to 50.2. Numbers above 50 show expansion.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle above the 50 MA at 1.4067. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will move towards the nearest resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
On the support side, a successful test of the support at 1.4010 – 1.4025 will push USD/CAD towards the next support level at 1.3920 – 1.3935.
USD/JPY Tests Resistance At 157.50 – 158.00 USD/JPY 040826 4h Chart USD/JPY is moving away from recent lows as the market stabilizes after major intervention. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a stable yen was important for the U.S. and for the entire region of Asia. He added that U.S. was in close contact with Japan.
From the technical point of view, USD/JPY attempts to settle above the resistance level at 157.50 – 158.00. If USD/JPY manages to settle above 158.00, it will head towards the next resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00. A move above the 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 50 MA at 161.57. It remains to be seen whether Bank of Japan is ready for another intervention in the near term.
On the support side, USD/JPY needs to settle below the support at 154.50 – 155.00 to gain additional downside momentum in the near term. RSI has recently moved back into moderate territory, so there is enough room to gain momentum.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
Swiss Franc Technical Forecast: USD/CHF Weekly Trade Levels USD/CHF reversed sharply after briefly reaching a major upside objective highlighted in last month's forecast. An outside-week reversal has shifted the focus from trend continuation to whether support can stabilize the broader uptrend. The median line of the yearly advance is now the key battleground heading into August. A break below support would threaten a deeper correction within the yearly uptrend, while a pivot above the July high would be needed to put the bulls back in control. This week's U.S. labor market data could provide the catalyst for the next major directional move. Resistance 8103, 8200/15 (key), 8333– Support 8009 (key), 7827/44, 7769 USD/CHF enters the new week / month at an important technical crossroads after reversing sharply from major technical resistance at the yearly high. The failed breakout has shifted attention from trend continuation to whether buyers can stabilize the current pullback before it develops into a broader correction. With price now testing median-line support and key U.S. labor market data on deck, the next move out of last week's range could provide important directional guidance for the opening weeks of August. Battle lines drawn on the USD/CHF weekly technical chart.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this USD/CHF setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Swiss Franc Price Chart – USD/CHF Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; USD/CHF on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Swiss Franc Technical Forecast we noted that USD/CHF trading within a well-defined range just above the median line and that, “losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading for a breakout on this stretch..” We specifically highlighted that, “the next major technical consideration is eyed at the 100% extension of the January advance and the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 decline at 8200/15. Note that the upper parallel converges on this zone over the next few weeks and represents an area of interest for possible topside exhaustion / price inflection IF reached.” The range broke the following week with USD/CHF registering an intraday high at 8207 before reversing sharply on the heels of the Fed rate decision. An outside-weekly reversal off the yearly high last week takes price back into the median-line and the immediate focus is on a breakout of last week’s range for guidance.
Initial resistance is eyed at the 61.8% extension of the 2022 decline at 8103 with key resistance steady at 8200/15. A breach / weekly close above this threshold is needed to mark uptrend resumption with subsequent resistance objectives eyed at eh 2024 low at 8333 and the 2026 low-week close / 2024 open at 8407/16- look for a larger reaction there IF reached.
A break / weekly close below the median-line would threaten a deeper correction within the yearly uptrend towards the March high-week close (HWC) at 8009. Key support / broader bullish invalidation rests with the objective yearly open and the 52-week moving average at 7927/44. Note that this zone converges on the lower parallel over the next few weeks and losses below this slope would be needed to suggest a more significant high is in place and a larger trend reversal is underway.
Bottom line: USD/CHF reversed off confluent uptrend resistance last week with the pullback now testing support at the median line. The immediate focus into the start of the month is on a breakout of last week’s range for directional guidance here. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 8009 IF price is heading higher on this stretch, with a breach above 8215 ultimately needed to fuel the next major leg of the advance.
Attention this week turns to the U.S. labor market, with ADP private-sector employment due Wednesday ahead of Friday's highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls report. With Chair Warsh emphasizing the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, the employment data will be closely scrutinized for clues on how much flexibility policymakers have to tighten policy further. Stay nimble into the releases and use the weekly close as your directional guide. Review my latest Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term USD/CHF technical trade levels.
Key USD/CHF Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Weekly Technical Charts Gold (XAU/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Euro (EUR/USD) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Key Points:The 2026 pullback is just the halfway point of the larger secular trend.Metals and Miners reached and likely bottomed in our mid-year target zones, setting the stage for the next advance.The second half of the bull market begins now, and we expect mining stocks to take the lead as the cycle moves into its strongest phase.
Gold Big Picture Here’s a quick reminder of where I believe we are in the overall precious metals bull market. I continue to expect gold to exceed $10,000 and silver to trade above $300 sometime in the early 2030s. The mini-parabolic advance we saw into 2026 is similar to the spike we witnessed in 2006, which marked the halfway point of the previous secular trend. If that analogy holds, it suggests we still have another four to six years of upside remaining.
My price targets may ultimately prove conservative given the U.S. fiscal situation. If the Social Security Trust Fund is depleted before 2030, it’s possible that gold and silver could reach levels well above my current projections—potentially double those targets. Mining stocks could/should outperform the underlying metals during the second half of this bull market. Position your portfolio accordingly.
Gold’s weekly chart frames the current advance as the halfway point of the secular bull market, with a projected path toward $10,000+. Source: StockCharts. Gold In May, we outlined the ideal target zone for a mid-year low to subscribers, which prices almost perfectly fulfilled. The new uptrend is beginning to develop gradually, much like the early stages of the 2006 advance. We expect prices to reach new all-time highs next year, with the potential to exceed $7,000.
In the near term, progressive closes above $4,200 would add confidence that the mid-year low is firmly in place and that the next leg of the bull market is underway.
Gold trades around 4,079.52, consolidating in the mid-year low target zone as the next leg is watched above the $4,200 level. Source: StockCharts. Silver Silver prices are beginning to turn higher after testing the extreme lower end of our target zone. Progressive closes above $60.00 would increase our confidence that the mid-year low is firmly in place and that the next advance has begun. We continue to expect silver to reach new all-time highs next year, with significantly higher prices likely as the secular bull market unfolds.
Silver trades around 59.44, turning higher from its mid-year low zone as it tests the $60.00 level. Source: StockCharts. Platinum Platinum also tested the extreme lower boundary of our mid-year target zone but largely held on a closing basis. Our long-term outlook remains unchanged, with prices ultimately returning to parity with gold. However, that milestone may not be reached until the final blow-off phase of the precious metals bull market in the early 2030s.
Platinum trades around 1,749.20, holding above its mid-year low target zone. Source: StockCharts. GDX Mining stocks briefly dipped below the lower end of our target zone but likely established their mid-year low in July. A decisive break above the current cyclical downtrend line would provide additional confirmation that the uptrend has resumed.
We continue to expect mining stocks to outperform the underlying metals during the second half of this secular bull market, offering investors significant leverage as gold and silver continue their long-term advance.
GDX trades around 77.67, holding its mid-year low zone while pressing against the cyclical downtrend line. Source: StockCharts. GDXJ Junior gold miners need to break decisively above the current cyclical downtrend line to confirm that a mid-year low is in place. It appears prices bottomed in the lower-right corner of our target zone, closely aligning with the ideal setup we outlined.
GDXJ trades around 101.33, holding its mid-year low zone as it works toward the cyclical downtrend line. Source: StockCharts. SILJ Silver junior miners may have established their low just above $23.00 within our previously identified target zone. In the near term, we would like to see progressive closes above $26.00, followed by a sustained breakout above the cyclical downtrend line later in the third quarter.
SILJ trades around 25.90, holding above its mid-year low zone with resistance seen at the $26.00 level. Source: StockCharts. Bitcoin Bitcoin has one of the most predictable four-year cycles of any major asset. From a timing perspective, we expect prices to reach the next four-year cycle low sometime in October. Identifying a precise price target is more challenging, but we believe a test of the $40,000 level is likely between now and then.
If our outlook is correct, we should see an aggressive breakdown begin in August or September, culminating in a final capitulation washout marked by maximum fear and pessimism. Such a move would likely signal the end of the bear phase and create an attractive longer-term buying opportunity.
Bitcoin trades around 64,000.64, with the analysis projecting a four-year cycle low toward the $40,000 area later this year. Source: StockCharts. Conclusion It’s halftime in the precious metals bull market, with substantially higher prices expected into the early 2030s. The path higher is unlikely to be a straight line, and history suggests that the strongest gains will likely occur during the final six months.
While mining stocks lagged during the first half, we expect them to become market leaders in the back half. Platinum could prove to be the sleeper of the group, offering exceptional long-term value. As for silver, if the market experiences genuine physical shortages, there is no telling how high prices could ultimately climb.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,087Hopes for a Strait of Hormuz reopening put pressure on the US Dollar.The United States macroeconomic calendar gyrates around employment figures this week.XAU/USD is mildly bullish in the near term, still needs to reconquer $4,100. The US Dollar (USD) is under mild selling pressure on Tuesday, pressured by headlines indicating that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Wednesday.
Tensions between the United States (US) and Iran have fluctuated heavily in recent weeks, with two weeks of continued crossfire in the Middle East abruptly pausing late in July. In the last few days, mediation has continued with little progress, yet Tuesday brought some relief as representatives from both sides hinted at reopening the critical sea passage in the next couple of days.
On the one hand, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday in an interview with CNBC. On the other hand, Al Arabiya reported that the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz may be “within hours or tomorrow,” according to a high-level source.
The news fueled risk appetite, pushing stock markets firmly up and putting modest pressure on the Greenback. Such pressure was, however, barely enough to lift precious metals within range. XAU/USD surged towards the $4,090 price zone, still confined within July’s tight range.
Other than that, the US reported that the number of job openings stood at 7.359 million in June, easing from the7.537 million openings reported in May, according to the JOLTS Job Openings report. The news adds modest pressure on the Greenback, yet market participants await more US employment-related figures: On Wednesday, the country will publish the July ADP Employment Change, ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for Friday.
Employment figures, while relevant in terms of future Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy decisions, may not have a relevant impact on the USD as long as data shows the labor market remains stable. Policymakers are clearly more worried about inflation.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical perspective, the 4-hour chart indicates XAU/USD is bullish in the near term. Spot holds above the clustered simple moving averages, with the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,067.46, the 100-period SMA at $4,052.89, and the 200-period SMA at $4,072.15 all acting as underlying support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 57, while the Momentum indicator turns higher above its midline, which together hint at sustained upward pressure as long as price holds above these moving-average floors.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD remains neutral. The metal holds just above the 20-day SMA at $4,060.47, but remains well below the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $4,407.09 and $4,490.17, respectively, which keeps the broader backdrop bearish despite a modest near-term bounce. The RSI indicator hovers around a neutral 49, while the 14-day Momentum indicator is also flat around its midline, reflecting the lack of directional strength.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-period SMA around $4,072.15, followed by the short-term 20-period SMA at $4,067.46 and then the 100-period SMA at $4,052.89, where a deeper pullback would likely meet buyers. Immediate technical resistance comes in the $4,120 region, where Gold has met sellers over the last few days. Gains beyond the area expose the $4,150 price zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a mildly positive tone near $59.50 per troy ounce on Tuesday, up 2% for the day, but falling from recent highs and leaving the metal locked in a tight range. Fading geopolitical tension weighs on safe-haven demand, while a softer United States (US) labor market reading limits the downside by keeping the Federal Reserve (Fed) outlook uncertain.
Al Arabiya reported that an announcement regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is expected soon. Al Hadath suggested arrangements for a full reopening could be confirmed within hours. None of the reports have been officially verified, but they have already triggered a sharp unwind of the risk premium built into commodity markets during the conflict.
For Silver, the impact cuts both ways. The metal has benefited from defensive flows during the escalation, and a confirmed reopening of the waterway would remove that support. At the same time, cheaper energy and improved global trade conditions favor industrial activity. With roughly half of Silver demand tied to industrial applications, a durable easing of supply disruptions supports the medium-term consumption outlook.
On the macroeconomic front, the JOLTS report showed vacancies falling to 7.359 million in June from the revised 7.537 million and below the 7.4 million forecast. The reading points to continued cooling in labor demand and tempers the message delivered by Monday's strong ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which climbed to 55.6. Softer labor demand trims the odds of further Fed tightening, easing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
The ADP Employment Change is expected to slow to 70K in July from 98K, ahead of Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report. A run of soft prints would revive expectations that the Fed has reached the end of its tightening cycle, weakening the US Dollar and clearing the path for precious metals.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $59.40. The metal holds above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.37 and the 100-period SMA at $57.93, keeping a constructive bullish tone while it consolidates just under nearby resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 sits in positive territory, suggesting firm upside momentum but still shy of overbought conditions.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at $59.49, ahead of the more notable horizontal barrier at $60.00. On the downside, immediate support emerges at $59.14, followed by $58.99, with the clustered moving average floor around the 20-period SMA at $58.37 and the 100-period SMA at $57.93 expected to underpin the broader bullish bias on deeper pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
/ / Gold is in consolidation above the yearly low for a seventh-consecutive week, with the next breakout likely to determine the August outlook.
04/08/2026
8/4/2026 2:54:00 PM
Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis Gold price analysis shows the metal coiling in a seven-week range just above its yearly lows as momentum grinds to its weakest since late 2023. Michael Boutros, FOREX.com Senior Market Analyst, breaks down gold across the weekly, daily, and four-hour charts and the fundamentals that could drive its next directional move. Boutros explains why gold has stalled in a tightening consolidation range and what a genuine breakout would take to confirm a more significant low. He also weighs how Federal Reserve rate expectations and the upcoming ADP employment and nonfarm payrolls releases could shape where gold goes next.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Active Short-term Technical Charts
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Breakout Risk Builds Into Month-End Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Presses Yearly Trend Resistance Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Challenges the July Downtrend Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
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Scotiabank’s analysts observe that the Euro is consolidating around the 1.15 area against the Dollar, with limited Eurozone data to drive price action. They point to last week’s sharp move higher stalling at a broader bear-trend line and stress that a break above 1.1565 is needed to extend gains, while support is seen in the 1.1460/1.1480 region.
Euro holds gains near 1.15"The EUR is little changed on the session. There were no major data reports from the Eurozone area on the session and spot appears to be content to consolidate recent gains through the 1.15 area."
"Reports suggest some net inflows into Eurozone bonds as global investors reduce exposure to US Treasury debt"
"Neutral—The snap higher in EUR/USD last week stalled at a key technical point—the broader bear trend that has guided the EUR lower from the January peak."
"Technical pointers lean EUR-bullish after a solid rise overall last week but a break above 1.1565 trend resistance is needed to lift the EUR further. Support is 1.1460/80."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
In today’s blog post, we take a trip down memory lane and look back at a previous CADJPY analysis. This serves as a great example of how we use technical analysis to identify potential market moves.
Specifically, we’ll be examining the CADJPY chart from 07.29.2026. At that time, we were tracking a potential bullish move. Our Elliott Wave analysis suggested that a primary wave (B) corrective pattern was nearing completion.
According to our forecast, we anticipated that CADJPY would form a significant high somewhere in the 117.52 region. This level represented a major Fibonacci resistance zone, and we believed it would be a logical place for the bulls to take profits and for the bears to re-enter the market.
The reaction: Sharp reversal from the highs
As anticipated, CADJPY capped its upward momentum right at the projected peak area and reversed aggressively to the downside. The pair completed wave ((v)) of C of (B) just below the 116.49 invalidation level, confirming the top before launching into a sharp impulsive decline.
This sell‑off drove prices more than 500 pips lower, reaching the 110.50 zone to complete wave 1, now trading around 112.02. The initial drop unfolded in five clear sub‑waves, underscoring the strength of the move.
Looking ahead, with wave 1 complete, the forecast calls for a corrective three‑wave bounce in wave 2—((a)), ((b)), and ((c))—toward the 113.50–114.00 region. Once this corrective rally is complete, the higher‑degree downtrend is expected to resume, extending the bearish sequence. Importantly, selling directly into current lows is not advised, as a corrective bounce is anticipated before the next major decline unfolds.
ConclusionThe CADJPY sequence is a textbook example of how Elliott Wave analysis maps out corrective structures and anticipates reversals. By combining wave counts, invalidation levels, and right‑side tags, traders can position themselves with the trend rather than against it.
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Gold (XAU/USD) catches a fresh bid on Tuesday as traders react to encouraging headlines about the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,087, recovering from an intraday low near $4,042.
In an interview with CNBC, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “We are in talks with the Iranians,” adding that “there is a chance we may have a deal today or tomorrow to open the Strait and move towards a more normalized position in this conflict.”
Separately, Al Arabiya reported, citing a high-ranking source, that an announcement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz is expected shortly. However, no official confirmation has been released.
The latest developments lifted market sentiment, sending the US Dollar (USD) and Oil prices lower. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell towards $75.50, its lowest level in three weeks.
Lower Oil prices ease inflation risks and reduce pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates. The move also dragged US Treasury yields lower, providing additional support to Gold.
Expectations of a September Fed rate hike have weakened, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing the probability falling to 57.1% from 67.2% a day earlier. Higher interest rates typically weigh on non-yielding assets such as Gold.
The combination of a weaker US Dollar and lower Treasury yields helped the precious metal regain ground. However, traders may avoid chasing Gold aggressively higher as the situation remains fluid and Tehran has yet to confirm either direct talks with Washington or an agreement to reopen the Strait.
Meanwhile, US JOLTS Job Openings fell to 7.359 million in June from 7.594 million, slightly below the 7.4 million expected. Traders now await ADP Employment Change on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday for clearer signals on the US labour market and monetary policy path. Softer labour figures could further reduce Fed rate-hike expectations and support Gold.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD is consolidating in a neutral tone, holding above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,062 but still well below the longer-term 100-day SMA, which keeps the broader uptrend in check.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 49 suggests balanced momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays modestly positive, hinting at a lack of clear directional conviction in the near term.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier of $4,100, followed by a higher cap at $4,200 before the 100-day SMA at $4,407. On the downside, nearby support is seen around the current price zone, with the 21-day SMA at $4,062 protecting the short-term floor, ahead of the more important horizontal support at $4,000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EURUSD remains constructive and holding above 1.1500 mark (round-figure / broken upper bull-channel boundary) for the fourth consecutive day, despite Monday’s pullback from new highest since June 17 that warned of potential stall of the latest recovery rally from 1.1353 to 1.1559.
Bulls were so far unable to register a clear break above Fibo barrier at 1.1524 (38.2% of 1.1849/1.1324 descend) and additionally capped by falling trendline off 1.1849 (currently at 1.1533), but the following action found footstep at 1.1500 (guarding another significant support at 1.1465, provided by daily cloud base), keeping near term bias with bulls, despite fading bullish momentum and overbought stochastic on daily chart.
Weaker dollar contributes to Euro’s positively aligned near term outlook, though sustained break of 1.1524/33 pivots remain required to validate scenario and signal bullish continuation and unmask next barriers at 1.1567 (100DMA); 1.1586 (daily cloud top) and 1.1627 (200DMA) in extension.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The gold market continues to be one that is noisy, as we are looking to see what happens next with inflation, and the Middle East – two things that are connected now. At this point, many are “stuck” here.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold futures trade around 4,138.9, consolidating above the 4,000.0 level while holding below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView. The gold market has rallied just a touch during the trading session here on Tuesday, but really, at this point in time, we have a market that is stuck between the 50-day EMA and the $3,900 level. This $300 range roughly has contained the market for well over a month and we are in a situation where traders continue to look at this as a market that is trying to figure out where to go next. This remains a serious problem from what I see.
Middle East Uncertainty and Bond Yields Keep Gold Range-Bound The interest rate markets have drifted a little bit lower in yield during the session, but we’ve seen this play out multiple times. The overall attitude of market participants will continue to see a lot of questions asked about the Middle East and what the overall energy situation will be and by extension inflation. This is a correlation that will continue to be on the minds of many traders out there, with the Strait of Hormuz a major factor.
So, while bond traders believe there is more inflation coming, the wider market seems to be arguing with them. The bond market and the interest rates have a major influence on what happens with gold. Right now, we’re just simply stuck waiting for some type of resolution or, unfortunately, flare-up coming out of the Middle East to determine what to do next. As things stand right now short-term traders seem to be very happy in this range and that’s pretty much how I look at it as well.
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Silver futures trade around 60.020, holding at the 60.000 level while staying below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView. The silver market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior, but ultimately this is a market that is starting to test the $60 level yet again. This is an area that has been resistance previously, and then after that, the $62.50 level has been resistance. The 50-day EMA is the moving average that a lot of traders will watch. This is an area that is technical resistance as well, so it is worth paying attention to.
Lower Yields and Energy Inflation Concerns Ultimately, this is a market that is going to remain noisy, and it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of questions asked about the interest rate market. It has seen lower yields during the session, and that, of course, helped silver with the idea that silver will continue to move based on inflationary expectations and the idea that we are electrifying the overall economy and driving up the massive demand for silver eventually.
The US dollar continues to fight back against several currencies, as the latest PMI numbers were hotter than expected.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USDJPY trades around 157.493, pulling back sharply toward the 155.000 level after slipping below its 50-day EMA. Source: TradingView. The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen as we are trying to break above the 200-day EMA. The market breaking above the 200-day EMA on a close, I think, would be a very bullish turn of events. The hammer from the previous session on Monday does suggest that there is real support here, especially near the 155-yen level, but if we were to break down below there, it could really open the floodgates. Keep in mind that the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve intervened, that’s what caused this chaos, but the interest rate differential will continue to entice carry traders to hold the dollar against the yen, as they get paid at the end of the day.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis USDCAD trades around 1.40630, holding above the 1.40000 level and both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView. The US dollar has rallied against the Canadian dollar during the session as we are in the midst of forming a double bottom. Ultimately, this is a market that continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but a push towards the upside, maybe towards 1.4150 again, could be possible. The 50-day EMA offering support comes into the picture as well, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level has been tested twice and found supportive. This is an area that a lot of people seem to be watching.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis
USDCHF trades around 0.80920, easing from the 0.81500 level while holding above both its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView. The US dollar slightly negative against the Swiss franc, but only barely so, and it looks like it’s in the midst of forming some type of double bottom as well. In fact, it looks very much like the US dollar Canadian dollar pair. And with that, this is a market that seems to be attracted to the 0.8150 level. The Swiss National Bank is very interested in keeping the Swiss franc weak, therefore that helps the carry traders here in this market.
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Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is inching higher Wednesday as prices continue to consolidate inside the short-term retracement zone at $4072.40 to $4041.65. The market has been straddling this zone for a month. While it has been doing this, the downtrend has not changed. Sellers have produced two lower tops at $4166.13 and $4202.71, while buyers have defended bottoms at $3942.10, $3959.80 and $3996.06.
The chart pattern could be signaling accumulation or distribution. The answer comes from the direction of the breakout.
If buyers are accumulating, a sustained move over the 50% level at $4072.40 could lead to an upside breakout and a test of the 50-day moving average at $4166.11. This indicator and the nearby swing top at $4166.13 form a resistance cluster and define the short-term trend. Overtaking them could generate enough upside momentum to take out the swing tops at $4202.71 and $4382.62.
If the market breaks over the 50-day moving average, the 200-day moving average at $4489.33 becomes the next major upside target.
If the consolidation is distribution, or simply a pause in the bear market selling, traders are likely to press prices lower through the Fibonacci level at $4041.65. If selling is strong enough, the three bottoms at $3996.06, $3959.80 and $3942.10 become the next support levels. A sustained move through them could lead to a test of the long-term bottom at $3886.46, which could trigger an acceleration to the downside.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades around $59.80 at the time of writing on Tuesday, up 2.81% on the day. The white metal extends its rebound after hitting a low of $56.57 on Monday, benefiting from renewed demand for precious metals as investors monitor diplomatic developments between the United States (US) and Iran.
Market sentiment has improved modestly after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached as soon as Tuesday or Wednesday. He added that Energy prices are expected to "settle back down" if a deal is reached. Following his comments, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil dropped more than 3% as investors priced in a gradual normalization of global Energy supplies.
The decline in Oil prices could also have important implications for US monetary policy. A prolonged drop in Energy prices would help ease inflationary pressures, reducing the need for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to tighten its monetary policy stance. Lower interest rate expectations typically weigh on the US Dollar (USD), providing additional support for non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Markets continue to adjust their expectations for the Fed, while developments in the Middle East remain a key focus. However, conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran continue to cloud the outlook. US President Donald Trump insists that talks are taking place and has described his latest proposal as Iran's "last chance" to reach an agreement, while Iranian officials continue to deny that any negotiations with the United States are underway.
XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $59.74, keeping a bullish near-term bias as it holds above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.11 and the 200-period SMA at $58.16. The former downtrend resistance line, now turned support around $58.62, reinforces the constructive structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74.48 signals overbought conditions that could slow the pace of further gains rather than immediately reverse the trend.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the prior breakout zone near $58.62, followed by the 200-hour SMA at $58.16 and the 100-hour SMA at $58.11, with a stronger floor near recent lows around the level of $57.00. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at $60.09, ahead of a higher cap near $60.94, where a rejection would hint at consolidation, while a sustained break above these barriers would open the way for further upside in the short term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/JPY on Tuesday as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gives back part of its recent rally, which was driven by coordinated intervention from Tokyo and Washington.
At the time of writing, the cross trades around 211.55, up 0.20% on the day.
Yen support from US intervention seen as limited and time-buyingAnalysts at MUFG/BTMU argue that the recent bout of joint FX intervention offers only partial and temporary relief for the Yen. They stress that, "on balance, we expect US intervention to support the yen to remain relatively small in scale," even if coordinated action with Japan helps steady the currency in the near term. In their view, "while joint intervention may prove more effective at helping to provide support for the yen in the near-term, we still believe that it can only buy time." MUFG/BTMU conclude that, ultimately, "there will need to be a change in fundamentals as well to encourage a sustainable reversal of the yen weakening trend that has been in place over the last five years."
Despite Tuesday’s rebound, the near-term technical picture for GBP/JPY has turned bearish. The recent sell-off pushed the cross decisively below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since April 2025, with the pair now testing the 200-day SMA.
Technical analysis
On the daily chart, GBP/JPY trades below the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 214.45 and hovers around the 200-day SMA at 211.75, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 30 hints at oversold conditions and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains deeply negative, reinforcing selling pressure.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 214.45, followed by the horizontal barrier at 216.50, with a stronger cap emerging near 220.
On the downside, the 200-day SMA at 211.75 marks first support ahead of the 210 level, with deeper floors at 207 and 205, where bears could start to lose momentum if the RSI slips further into oversold territory.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.06%-0.08%0.14%0.10%-0.44%-0.22%-0.15%EUR0.06%-0.04%0.22%0.15%-0.41%-0.19%-0.08%GBP0.08%0.04%0.28%0.21%-0.35%-0.13%-0.04%JPY-0.14%-0.22%-0.28%-0.06%-0.60%-0.41%-0.19%CAD-0.10%-0.15%-0.21%0.06%-0.54%-0.34%-0.24%AUD0.44%0.41%0.35%0.60%0.54%0.22%0.30%NZD0.22%0.19%0.13%0.41%0.34%-0.22%0.10%CHF0.15%0.08%0.04%0.19%0.24%-0.30%-0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) trades flat on Tuesday, extending its sideways grind as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace efforts and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path keeps traders cautious.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,056 after touching an intraday high near $4,072. The precious metal has moved largely between $4,000 and $4,200 over the past month, with buyers and sellers showing little conviction.
Diverging comments from Washington and Tehran suggest that lasting peace in the Middle East remains unlikely in the near term. US President Donald Trump says talks with Iran are taking place, while Tehran denies negotiating with Washington. Trump has also warned that his latest offer is Iran’s “last chance” to reach a deal.
Oil prices remain elevated as energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz stay heavily restricted, although Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary safe shipping route.
Higher energy costs are adding to inflation pressures, forcing worldwide central banks to maintain restrictive monetary policy or consider raising interest rates. However, the Fed does not appear to be in a hurry to raise borrowing costs. The US central bank left them unchanged within the 3.50%-3.75% range at its July meeting.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reiterated the commitment to bringing inflation back to its 2% target, but his move away from forward guidance leaves traders guessing about what the central bank will do next.
Markets still expect the Fed to raise interest rates in September, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 62.7% chance of a rate hike. These hawkish expectations keep the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields supported, limiting Gold’s upside attempts.
Beyond geopolitics, attention now turns to this week’s US employment data. The economic calendar begins with the JOLTS Job Openings on Tuesday, followed by ADP Employment Change on Wednesday and Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday. These figures could influence Fed rate expectations and drive the next move in Gold.
Technical analysis: Momentum stabilizes as Gold consolidates above $4,000
On the daily chart, XAU/USD remains largely range-bound between $4,000 and $4,200, pointing to an extended consolidation phase. Gold sits near the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,058, while the narrowing Bollinger Bands suggest that volatility is easing and a breakout could be brewing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 46 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is in positive territory, hinting that selling strength is waning rather than reversing outright.
Initial resistance is seen at the middle Bollinger Band near $4,058, which also serves as the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), followed by $4,100 and the upper Bollinger Band at $4,138. A clear move above these levels could bring the upper end of the range at $4,200 into focus. Meanwhile, the 100-day SMA at $4,406 remains a distant upside barrier.
On the downside, the $4,000 psychological mark and the lower Bollinger Band at $3,979 provide immediate support.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
