XAG/USD Current price: $62.00Tepid United States data weighed on an already weak US Dollar.Hopes for a quick solution to the Middle East conflict boosted the mood.XAG/USD trades at a fresh one-month high and aims to extend its recovery.Silver flirted with $63 on Wednesday, its highest in over a month amid renewed market optimism. Investors welcomed news hinting at a soon-to-come deal between the United States (US) and Iran.
XAU/USD traded as high as $62.78 early in the American session, following headlines indicating that the US Treasury lifted counter-terrorism sanctions imposed on three airlines and two aircraft linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and three airlines.
A Treasury official clarified that the decision was not related to US negotiations with Iran over a possible deal to end hostilities in the Gulf, according to Reuters, yet market players dropped the Greenback on hopes that a deal is closer. The encouraging headline was reinforced by reports suggesting that a deal between Oman and Iran is done, pending Tehran's approval.
The USD was also pressured by local data, as the ADP Employment Change survey showed that the US private sector added measly 44K in July, missing expectations of 70K and below the 98K recorded in June. Also, the ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index printed at 54.1 in July, slightly better than the previous 54, although below the 54.5 expected.
XAG/USD short-term technical outlookBroad USD weakness keeps precious metals near recent highs, with XAU/USD now hovering around the $62 level.
In the 4-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $62.00, extending its recovery above the critical $61 mark, a former relevant low now an immediate relevant support. The pair holds well above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $59.32 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs at $58.15 and $58.99, respectively, which now underpin the uptrend. The Momentum indicator gains modest upward traction above its midline, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator consolidates around 74, far from signaling exhaustion but instead reflecting the latest advance.
In the daily chart, Silver retains a constructive near-term bias as it trades well above the 20-day SMA at $58.30, while the 100-day and 200-day SMAs at $69.22 and $71.06, respectively, remain well overhead, signaling that the broader trend is still capped despite the latest rebound. Momentum has improved, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index around 56 and the 14-day Momentum indicator turning firmly positive, which suggests buyers currently have the upper hand.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the short-term 20-period SMA at $59.32, followed by the 200-period SMA at $58.99 and the 100-period SMA at $58.15, where any dip would likely attract fresh demand while these levels hold. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA near $69.22, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.06, a cluster that is likely to act as a tougher supply zone if the rally extends. Once beyond it, however, the path towards $100 will be much clearer.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances some 0.12% on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) registers back-to-back days of losses, after US jobs data was softer than expected, even though business activity in the services sector continues to expand solidly. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3467. Read More...
British Pound grinds higher above 1.3450 ahead of US ADP Employment releaseThe GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.3455 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by softer US economic data and cooling US-Iran tensions. Traders brace for the US ADP Employment and ISM Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) reports, which are due on Wednesday. Markets might turn cautious later this week ahead of the US July jobs data. Read More...
British Pound weakens as US Dollar gains despite easing safe-haven demandGBP/USD edges lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3450 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair came under selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gained momentum, bolstered by a rebound in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which had dipped toward 4.61% on Tuesday. That initial slide in yields was driven by falling energy prices, which helped cool inflation fears and tempered expectations of a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve (Fed). Read More...
U.S. Dollar Moves Lower As Traders Focus On Job Market Data
DXY 050826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index pulls back as traders react to the weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change report. The report indicated that private businesses added 44,000 jobs in July, compared to analyst forecast of 70,000.
Traders also had a chance to take a look at the ISM Services PMI report for July. The report showed that ISM Services PMI improved from 54.0 in June to 54.1 in July, compared to analyst consensus of 54.5. Numbers above 50 show expansion.
U.S. Dollar Index failed to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00 and pulled back towards the 99.75 level. In case U.S. Dollar Index settles below 99.75, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range.
EUR/USD Tests The 1.1550 Level EUR/USD 050826 4h Chart EUR/USD is moving higher as traders focus on U.S. economic data. Rising oil prices did not put pressure on EUR/USD as traders believe that U.S. and Iran will reach a temporary deal soon.
EUR/USD moved above the resistance at 1.1510 – 1.1525 and is trying to settle above the 1.1550 level. In case EUR/USD manages to settle above 1.1525, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.1600 – 1.1615 range. RSI is close to the overbought territory, but there is enough room to gain additional upside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the support side, a move below the 1.1500 level will push EUR/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.1460. If EUR/USD declines below the 50 MA, it will head towards the next support at 1.1420 – 1.1435.
GBP/USD Gains Ground As Rebound Continues GBP/USD 050826 4h Chart GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 as traders focus on general weakness of the American currency.
In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3480 level, it will move towards the resistance at 1.3550 – 1.3565. On the support side, a move below the 1.3420 level will push GBP/USD towards the 50 MA at 1.3385.
USD/CAD Tests Support At 1.4010 – 1.4025
USD/CAD 050826 4h Chart USD/CAD is losing ground as traders focus on the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold and silver are up by +4% amid rising demand for precious metals. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.4010 – 1.4025. If USD/CAD manages to settle below 1.4010, it will head towards the next support at 1.3920 – 1.3935.
On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the 50 MA at 1.4064 to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/CAD will head towards the resistance level at 1.4125 – 1.4140.
USD/JPY Stays Below The 158.00 Level USD/JPY 050826 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck near resistance at 157.50 – 158.00 as traders are cautious after recent interventions from BoJ. Treasury yields are moving higher, but this move does not provide sufficient support to USD/JPY.
If USD/JPY manages to settle above the 158.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 159.50 – 160.00 range. A move above the 160.00 level will push USD/JPY towards the 50 MA at 160.84.
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Gold (XAU/USD) is accelerating its rebound near $4,250 at the time of writing on Wednesday amid easing geopolitical tensions after United States (US) President Donald Trump said that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz was imminent. Bitcoin (BTC) mirrors the metal’s near-term bullish bias, edging higher toward the resistance at $65,000.
Trump eyes reopening of the Strait of HormuzPresident Trump told reporters on Tuesday that “a lot of progress had been made” in the discussions of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and intimated that an announcement could be made as soon as Wednesday.
Moreover, a CNN report states that a senior Gulf official said that there is a “50-50” chance that Iran could reach a deal amid the ongoing strategic talks with Oman on reopening the waterway.
Despite Trump’s optimism, Iranian state media said earlier this week that any agreement with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz has “no connection” to its reopening.
Meanwhile, appetite for risk assets appears to be improving albeit gradually, as reflected in the crypto Fear & Greed Index, which is embedded in Fear territory at 28 on Wednesday, up from 25 in the Extreme Fear region the day before. A sustained recovery could ensue should investors increase risk exposure, absorbing selling pressure.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: AlternativeTechnical analysis: Bitcoin bulls gain groundBitcoin trades around $64,540, keeping a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds inside a downward parallel channel and below a dense layer of exponential moving averages (EMAs). The spot price also holds just above the channel’s upper boundary near $64,405, which now acts as immediate support, but remains capped by the 50-day EMA at $64,659, with the 100-day EMA at $67,096 reinforcing broader downside pressure overhead.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 53 on the daily chart hints at neutral-to-slightly positive momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory, suggesting that any rebounds are still occurring within a corrective, capped structure.
BTC/USDT daily chartThe first resistance is the 50-day EMA at $64,659, followed by the Parabolic SAR signal near $65,604, where selling interest could intensify if price extends higher, before the more distant 100-day EMA at $67,096 defines the broader bearish cap. On the downside, initial support lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around $64,405, with the channel floor near $61,262 as the next key downside objective should sellers regain control.
Technical outlook: Gold extends recoveryGold trades around $4,256, holding above the 50-day EMA at $4,187 but still capped beneath the 200-day EMA at $4,279 and the 100-day EMA at $4,316, which keeps the broader outlook only cautiously constructive.
The break and subsequent hold above the former downward-resistance trendline, whose key break price sits near $4,000, hints at an improving structure, while the MACD has turned firmly positive and the RSI at 61 shows strengthening bullish momentum rather than overbought conditions.
XAU/USDT daily chartImmediate resistance lies at the 200-day EMA around $4,279, with a subsequent barrier at the 100-day EMA near $4,316. A daily close above this capped area would likely open the door to a more decisive bullish phase. On the downside, initial support is seen at the current price area as an immediate pivot, followed by the 50-day EMA at $4,187, while the broken descending trendline around $4,000 stands as a deeper structural floor if a corrective pullback develops.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.
Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.
Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.
Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.
There haven’t been many opportunities in recent weeks where the geopolitical and the macro backdrop have been supportive of risk sentiment, but today is one of those days. The oil price remains low; Brent crude oil is below $79 per barrel as the US and Iran hash out the details for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Today is the one of the first days that it has felt like a traditional August trading day.
SpaceX boosts NvidiaGlobal stock indices are drifting higher, and US indices are extending gains after closing at record highs earlier this week. SpaceX is the one exception, it is the weakest performer on the Nasdaq 100, and is lower by more than 7% after investors reacted to its earnings report. However, even SpaceX is helping to boost the broader US index, after its announcement that it will use Nvidia chips to power all its AI data centres, has boosted Nvidia’s share price by 4.5% today. Although overall market sentiment is strong, investors are also buying into individual narratives, and Nvidia is rallying while other semiconductor chip stocks are struggling because it bagged another high-spending customer.
Tech stocks may take a breatherThe gains in US stocks have been astonishing in the past week. Although the Nasdaq did not record a new high, it did post a 1% plus gain for the fourth straight day on Tuesday, something it has only done 17 times before in its history. Thus, a pullback at this stage would be normal.
Gold glitters once moreAlthough the tech sector is dominating the market narrative this week, gold and silver are also leading the pack, which is boosting the FTSE 100’s miners, Endeavour Mining and Fresnillo are higher by 5% and 4% respectively on Wednesday.
Precious metals are surging today due to two factors: 1, the prospect of a US/ Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and deescalate the situation in the Middle East, and 2, the weaker than expected ADP private sector payrolls reading in the US.
Precious metals prices have not acted as a safe haven since war broke out in the Middle East and instead they have tended to rally when the situation improves. Thus, a breakthrough could extend the recent pick up in the gold price.
The weaker ADP report has reduced the chance of a rate hike from the Fed in September. The probability of a rate hike in September now stands at 56%, that’s down from 59% last week. If we get a weak NFP payrolls report on Friday, then US rate hike expectations could fall further.
Falling Treasury yields help the gold price to recoverThe weaker tone to the ADP report, along with a falling oil price that could keep inflation in check, is pushing down Treasury yields. In the past week, the 2-year Treasury yield is lower by 6bps, the 10-year yield is lower by 5bps. Since gold has no yield, when Treasury yields are falling it can boost the attractiveness of holding gold as an asset. The recent decline in the dollar is also boosting the gold price. Multilateral intervention to push up the yen weighed on the dollar index this week and pushed it down 1.7%.
The technical picture is also supportive for gold, after it broke through its 50-day sma at $4160 per ounce, which is a bullish development in the short term, as you can see in the chart below. The next key resistance level to watch includes $4,500, the 200-day sma.
Looking ahead, the gold price could be at risk if there is a stronger than expected payrolls report later this week.
Overall, the stock market rally could take a pause here, especially in the US. However, we think that if this happens it will be temporary, as there are multiple factors that could drive stocks higher from here, including a lower oil price, and a strong Q2 earnings season.
There is also a strong technical bias for further upside in US stocks. The Nasdaq 100 broke above its 200-day sma this week, which suggests momentum is firmly to the upside for now.
Chart 1: Gold, the technical picture looks supportive
Source: XTB
Chart 2: A pullback in the US 100 could be temporary
USD/CAD climbed toward weekly highs as falling oil prices weakened the Canadian dollar despite strong domestic trade data. Canada's trade surplus reached a four-year high, but the positive economic data was overshadowed by the sharp decline in crude oil prices. Markets are reassessing Federal Reserve expectations, limiting gains in the US dollar after weaker-than-expected US economic data. USD/CAD rises as oil prices pressure the Canadian dollar The USD/CAD exchange rate extended its gains on Wednesday, climbing toward the 1.4080 level as another sharp decline in oil prices continued to pressure the Canadian dollar.
The move came despite encouraging economic data from Canada, where the country’s merchandise trade surplus expanded to its highest level in four years during June. Under normal market conditions, stronger trade figures would support the loonie. However, investors remained focused on the collapse in crude oil prices, which has become the dominant driver of the Canadian currency this week.
Canada is one of the world’s largest crude exporters, meaning movements in oil prices often have a direct impact on the value of the Canadian dollar. With Brent crude slipping below $80 per barrel as hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran improved, traders reduced exposure to the loonie in anticipation of weaker export revenues.
Lower oil prices offset stronger Canadian economic data The Canadian dollar struggled to capitalize on stronger-than-expected domestic economic data as falling crude oil prices remained the dominant driver of market sentiment. Canada reported a merchandise trade surplus that climbed to a four-year high in June, reflecting resilient exports and healthy external demand. Under normal circumstances, such data would provide support for the loonie by reinforcing confidence in the country’s economic outlook.
However, investors largely overlooked the upbeat trade figures as oil prices extended their recent decline. Brent crude slipped below $80 per barrel, marking its lowest level in several weeks, after growing optimism that diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran could ease tensions in the Middle East and reduce the risk of supply disruptions. Expectations that global oil supplies could stabilize prompted traders to unwind part of this year’s geopolitical risk premium.
Because crude oil is Canada’s largest export, movements in energy prices have a significant impact on the country’s trade balance, corporate earnings and economic growth prospects. The latest decline in oil prices therefore outweighed the positive impact of Canada’s stronger trade data, leaving the loonie under pressure as investors continued to favor the US dollar.
Softer US data caps US dollar gains While USD/CAD continued to move higher, gains in the US dollar remained limited as investors reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy following a fresh batch of weaker-than-expected US economic data. The greenback initially found support from broad risk sentiment but struggled to build sustained momentum as markets questioned whether the Fed would have enough justification to continue tightening monetary policy.
Recent economic releases painted a mixed picture of the US economy. JOLTS job openings fell by more than economists had anticipated, suggesting labor demand is beginning to cool after months of resilience. Meanwhile, factory orders unexpectedly declined, pointing to softer business investment and moderating manufacturing activity. Together, the data reinforced expectations that economic momentum is slowing, reducing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates aggressively in the near term.
As a result, traders scaled back expectations for another interest rate hike, with market-implied odds of a September increase easing from the previous session. Lower rate expectations tend to weigh on the US dollar by narrowing its interest-rate advantage over other major currencies.
Despite this, USD/CAD remained supported because weakness in the Canadian dollar proved more significant than softness in the greenback. Falling crude oil prices continued to undermine the loonie, allowing the pair to edge higher even as US dollar gains were capped by expectations of a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
USD/CAD outlook The USD/CAD outlook remains cautiously bullish while the pair trades above the psychological 1.4000 support level. Buyers are now testing resistance around 1.4090, a key technical barrier that has capped recent advances. A decisive breakout above this level could expose 1.4125, with the yearly high near 1.4250 becoming the next major upside target.
However, if oil prices recover or expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continue to fade, the Canadian dollar could regain some ground, potentially pulling USD/CAD back toward 1.4000.
Why is USD/CAD rising today?
USD/CAD is rising mainly because falling oil prices are weakening the Canadian dollar, while the US dollar remains relatively stable despite softer US economic data.
What is the next key level for USD/CAD?
The immediate resistance level is around 1.4090. A sustained move above this level could open the door for a test of 1.4125, followed by the 2026 highs near 1.4250.
Why do oil prices affect the Canadian dollar?
Canada is a major oil exporter. Lower crude prices reduce export revenues and typically weaken the Canadian dollar, while higher oil prices generally support the currency.
Silver (XAG/USD) jumps more than 4% on Wednesday as weaker-than-expected US ADP employment data and easing energy-driven inflation prompt traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $62.30, near its highest level in a month.
From a technical perspective, the latest leg higher has improved the near-term outlook. However, the broader trend remains cautious as Silver approaches key resistance levels.
On the daily chart, XAG/USD has reclaimed the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $58.31 and is now challenging the 50-day SMA at $62.65.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has risen to 56, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays above zero. Both indicators suggest that bullish momentum is building.
Immediate resistance is located at the 50-day SMA near $62.65. A daily close above this level would open the way toward the $65.00 barrier, followed by the 100-day SMA at $69.22. On the downside, the 21-day SMA at $58.31 offers initial support, ahead of the horizontal floor near $55.50.
Weekly chart
On the weekly chart, XAG/USD trades below the 50-week SMA at $65.94 and the 21-week SMA at $68.64, keeping the broader outlook bearish. The weekly RSI stands at 45, while the MACD remains below zero, suggesting that the latest advance has yet to develop into a broader bullish reversal.
On the upside, the $65.00 mark offers initial resistance, followed by the 50-week SMA at $65.94. A sustained break above this zone would bring the 21-week SMA at $68.64 into focus. On the downside, support is located near $55.50, followed by the 100-week SMA at $49.51.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret describe the Euro (EUR) as steady in the mid-to-lower 1.15 area, trading close to fair value based on 2-year US–Germany spreads. Fundamentals and sentiment are seen as constructive, underpinning EUR recovery since early Q3. Short-term technicals are bullish, with resistance around 1.1550 and a preferred near-term range between 1.1500 and 1.1600, ahead of the 200-day MA at 1.1630.
Bullish tone with defined resistance levels"The EUR is steady, extending its latest consolidation in the mid/lower1.15 area. The final services and composite PMI’s offered a fractional improvement on the preliminary prints, indicating marginal levels of growth across the euro area, despite a slight contraction in France and Germany in July."
"The EUR is trading in line with a narrow FV estimate tied to 2Y spreads between the US and Germany, offering little in terms of directional risk from a fundamental perspective. The trend in both fundamentals (spreads) and sentiment (risk reversals) is constructive, providing a solid basis for the EUR’s latest recovery since the start of Q3."
"Bullish – the EUR’s latest recovery has been important, delivering a clear bullish shift in momentum and a break of trend resistance with the push above the 50 day MA (1.1476)."
"Short-term price action has revealed additional near-term resistance around 1.1550, however we see nothing major ahead of the 200-day MA at 1.1630. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.1500 and 1.1600."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The EUR/USD forecast is for a potential upside continuation as US Pres Trump says a Hormuz deal could be reached on Wednesday. The EUR/USD is inching higher this Wednesday as the US Dollar retreats following a shift in sentiment, with hopes for positive negotiations between the US and Iran on the geopolitical front gaining momentum. This Wednesday, the greenback is broadly lower as the markets digest the impact of falling US bond yields and softer US labor market indicators. Falling oil prices have also removed the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar, with investors now willing to assume more market risk.
Furthermore, the US Dollar is also taking a beating after the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change surprised to the downside. US private sector employment as measured by this data set came in at 44K, lower than the market expectation of 68K and the prior of 95K.
The EUR/USD is currently trading 0.1% higher as of writing.
Today’s biggest macro driver is the decline in US bond yields due to softer US labor market data and reduced dollar appeal from falling oil prices and geopolitical de-escalation. Additional factors include profit-taking from recent dollar longs and rotation away from defensive dollar positioning toward a risk assumption.
2) Easing Geopolitical Fears
The recent pause in new US strikes has provided some relief to the markets on the geopolitical front. Despite the unresolved conflict, any headlines that point to a pause in hostilities are a piece of much-needed good news for a market that is looking drained by the elongated nature of the war. Oil prices are trading below $80 a barrel, suggesting a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium and improved market sentiment.
3) Markets Now Reassessing the Fed Outlook
Last week’s Federal Reserve meeting was interpreted as a hawkish hold. However, the reduction in fuel prices, the lowering of US bond yields, and the underwhelming US labor data released so far are forcing markets to reassess the Fed’s outlook. If the NFP data points to a slowing of US public sector employment and further inflation data suggests moderation, the Fed expectations could start turning dovish.
4) Stable Eurozone Fundamentals
Despite the growth concerns and the impact of rising energy costs on the energy-import-dependent single area, the single currency is benefiting from the ECB’s cautious stance. Furthermore, recent inflation data (Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimates YoY: actual 2.5%, consensus/prior: 2.4) indicate that inflation has not disappeared totally. These factors are helping to create stability for ECB expectations and are currently supportive of Euro strength.
EUR/USD Near-Term Price Catalysts 1) US Data: Upcoming data from the US that will be on the watchlist of traders include Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll report. Subsequently, the consumer spending and consumer/producer price index data will also hit the newswires. If the data points to lowered US economic resilience, the weakness in the US Dollar could continue.
2) US Treasury Yields: Declining US bond yields will lead to a reduced demand for USD-denominated assets, which invariably supports further gains on the EUR/USD. On the flip side, USD strength is restored if bond yields start rising once more.
3) Middle East geopolitics: Headlines around the state of shipping or military encounters in the Strait of Hormuz will impact oil prices. If there is a renewal of bombardments, the markets will interpret this as a sign of escalation, and this would revive the USD’s safe-haven appeal at the Euro’s detriment.
EUR/USD Forecast Scenarios Base case: moderate bullishness is expected, with the recent pullback in the USD expected to extend if US bond yields remain pressured. Furthermore, the cooling of geopolitical tensions and stable ECB policy expectations are expected to provide further support for the pair.
Bull case: a combination of weak US data, continued de-escalation on the geopolitical front, and additional declines in US bond yields could see more USD longs being liquidated. Under these conditions, the EUR/USD may reclaim the 1.1670 resistance level or higher.
Bear case: if US bond yields resume the upside trend, coupled with better-than-expected US data and renewed fighting between the US and Iran, this is supportive of a bear case scenario. This scenario sees a further widening in the interest yield differential between the Euro and US Dollar, and a retreat in Fed rate cut expectations. A retreat towards support levels below 1.14 is the price expectation here.
EUR/USD: Technical Outlook The break of the neckline at 1.1480 confirms the bottoming pattern (progressing rising lows at 1.1324 and 1.1363). This unlocks the door for a measured move that is expected to complete at 1.1577, the prior low of 19 January 2026 and the lower edge of the resistance zone, with 1.1581 as the upper edge. Only when this zone is breached can the 1.1671 resistance (30 April 2026 low and neckline of the 16 April and 12 May 2026 double top) become available as a new upside target.
Fig 1: EUR/USD daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 5 August 2026) On the flip side, this upside move is only invalidated if the bottoming price levels are degraded, which leaves room for continuation of the recent near-term downtrend towards 1.1269, the high of 17 July 2023. A further downside target at 1.1210 (23 September 2024 high) becomes the next downside target if 1.1269 is breached.
Gold Talking Points: Gold is breaking out today, with spot testing above the $4200 level that was resistance in early July. This presents the possibility of trend change after more than a month of support at the $4k level.
I looked into gold at the start of this week and as I said then, sellers were seemingly showing signs of stall as the $4k level had elicited multiple iterations of support. More recently, it was the higher-lows showing a degree of bullish anticipation, but it wasn’t until this morning that buyers took that much needed next step, by pushing price up to a fresh monthly high.
As of this writing, spot gold is testing above the same $4200 level that held the highs back in early July. And the question now is whether they can continue to set the pace following a decisively bearish past six months.
Gold Daily Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Short-Term, Catching the Parabola The challenge of a breakout often dials back to risk management, as there’s a lack of nearby supports to use for stop placement. So, the trader is often faced with choosing from one of two pathways, and both carry possible downside. Either chase the move or wait for a pullback. While the first option can allow the trader to jump on the prevailing momentum, the downside is the prospect of buying a top (or selling a bottom) and then watching a stop get hit at a sub-standard level, given that dearth of historical price action at those price intervals. The downside of the second approach is that pullback may not show up, and even when it does, there’s no assurance that the trend will continue. But – at the least, with the second pathway, the trader can allow for market dynamics and prior spots of reference to be used for risk management.
The big level now with the breakout taking hold is that $4200 spot. If we see short-term profit taking, then, ideally, buyers would come in to defend this spot of prior resistance. Below that is a key zone, taken from prior swing-highs spanning an approximate $20 range from $4160 up to $4180, and this is key as that was the last spot of higher-low support on the short-term chart before the breakout took hold past $4200.
If that gets taken out, we’d likely be looking at a wide upper wick on the daily or perhaps weekly bar and that would not be such a bullish indication. But – there is a case for support down to around the 4115 area which was a spot of resistance that held the highs twice before the current breakout got started.
Gold Hourly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Trajectory If this is truly a tidal shift in gold, there’s a lot of room for bulls to run as the metal had dropped by more than $1600, or 25% in that six-month span of weakness.
This is, perhaps, one reason that traders don’t necessarily need to be so ultra-aggressive on chasing the short-term breakout. Because if this is, truly, the resumption of the broader trend, then there should be ample opportunity for short-term swings to present opportunity. Sitting overhead the next significant level is $4400, which set support back in May before sellers took their shot. And of course above that, $4500 has considerable prior action – to the point that if either of those levels came into play quickly, then some profit taking from short-term buyers should be expected, which could allow for pullbacks and then higher-lows.
Gold Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Gold price rose over 3% and hit the highest in nearly six weeks on Wednesday, lifted by fresh wave of optimism over a peace talks between the US and Iran, which eased inflation concerns and deflated the US dollar.
This was so far the strongest market reaction in more than one month, as fresh rally violated range top ($4203), reinforced by the base of falling and thickening daily Ichimoku cloud, generating significant bullish signals.
However, signals require confirmation on sustained break above these barriers that would open way for stronger recovery and expose next key barrier at $4304 (Fibo 38.2% of $4889/$3942) violation of which to generate reversal signal.
Strengthening positive momentum and formation of daily Tenkan/Kijun-sen bull cross, show positive developments on daily technical studies, which contributes to improving near-term outlook.
Geopolitical factor is likely to remain key price driver, with traders being cautious and focus on comments from President Trump (so far known for quick changes of direction of his views that kept market action highly volatile) that would continue to strongly impact traders’ sentiment.
Fresh acceleration higher is likely to face increased headwinds at $4200 zone, due to significance of these barriers, as some investors may decide to collect profits, however subsequent dips should hold above $4166 (broken Fibo 23.6% of $4889/$3942) to revived bulls in play.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
BNY’s Geoff Yu notes Brazilian portfolio inflows are near post-COVID highs ahead of the Selic decision, with strong demand for equities and government bonds. He highlights that FX conviction is limited as volumes are low and currency positioning neutral, while iFlow data suggest the broader inflow cycle peaked in April and the financial account is likely to stabilize rather than re-accelerate.
Flows strong but FX conviction cautious"BRL flows are recovering ahead of today’s Selic rate decision, supported by renewed terms of trade interest, strong equity demand and continued purchases of Brazilian government bonds. Conviction remains limited, however, because FX volumes are exceptionally low, currency holdings are effectively neutral and the broader portfolio flow cycle appears to have peaked. The recent sharp spot outflow looks more transaction-driven than evidence of a wider reversal, particularly given the otherwise constructive asset flow backdrop."
"Despite our caution on the currency itself, the clearest validation of a stronger market view on Brazil is the continued improvement in underlying asset flows. Equities and sovereign bonds have recorded very few outflow sessions over the past month, with equity demand particularly firm. Government bond inflows should remain the main anchor for Brazil’s external liability position."
"Although flow magnitudes have been softer for bonds than for equities, momentum remains positive and points to continued carry demand. The main challenge is duration. The current Fed backdrop and steeper U.S. Treasury curve are more supportive of front-end exposure, while emerging markets benefit most when hawkish monetary policy and fiscal credibility reduce term premiums and improve access to longer-term funding."
"Brazil’s financial account nevertheless remains strong, although momentum is slowing. Our iFlow EM portfolio flow proxy continues to track the official balance-of-payments data closely and suggests combined inflows peaked in April, which is consistent with the official figures. The pace of deterioration eased in July, but the broader direction remains clear."
"Following a decline of roughly $1bn in June, the monthly net financial account balance is likely to stabilize around zero rather than return quickly to the exceptional inflow levels seen earlier in the year."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver rallies early during the trading session on Wednesday to test the 50-day EMA. This market continues to pay close attention to the interest rates in America as well.
Silver Technical Analysis
Daily silver futures candlestick chart showing the contract near 62.100, below both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView. The silver market rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Wednesday as it looks like we are threatening the 50-day EMA. We have pulled back just a touch from there, showing signs of hesitation. A little bit of technical resistance has come into the picture.
Interest rates in America started to fall early during the session, but they have ticked a little bit higher, not enough that I think it makes a huge difference at the moment, but it is something to keep an eye on. Silver of course, is very sensitive to rising interest rates, as it is more enticing for some to buy paper that yields instead of a non-yielding asset that traders have to store and pay to store like silver.
Mean Reversion Trade Eyes $60 Magnet We’ve been in a range for a while now and we are testing the top of it. Whether or not we can break out remains to be seen, but this is certainly a market that I’ll be watching closely on Wednesday. Short-term pullbacks are very possible here, with the $60 level being a bit of a magnet for price. It does make a certain amount of sense for a reversion to the mean trade.
There are no major economic announcements coming out during the session, so that could help as well. But we also have a lot of confusion and a lot of back and forth coming out of the Middle East, which obviously has its part to play in the interest rate markets. So the one thing I do expect is choppy behavior.
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Elevated Interest Rates and 200-Day EMA Present Resistance So, it is because of this that I’m not willing to jump in and just start buying gold hand over fist, although this is the first strong signal that we could remain bullish. The 200-day EMA sits just above as well, so technical analysis would suggest a little bit of noise in this area regardless.
So, taking my time is how I plan on playing this market, looking for value. I do like gold longer term; I’ve said that all along, but I also recognize that as long as interest rates remain somewhat elevated, it might be a little bit difficult to get aggressive in the gold market to the upside. That being said, eventually all things come to an end, and maybe this situation will, and the gold market could continue its overall uptrend. We’ll just have to wait and see. The size of the candle so far is pretty impressive; we’ll have to see how that plays out as well, but ultimately a little bit of patience probably goes a long way here.
Euro Technical Outlook: EUR/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis EUR/USD technical analysis shows the currency pair rebounding off multi-year support after five straight weeks of testing, back into resistance. Michael Boutros, FOREX.com Senior Market Analyst, breaks down the euro-dollar picture across the monthly, weekly, daily and four-hour charts and the macro calendar shaping it. With the Federal Reserve back in focus, Boutros looks at how Friday's nonfarm payrolls report and the ADP employment report feed the next rate decision, and why market-implied odds of a September rate hike have slid from around four in five toward a coin flip. Eurozone retail sales and the broader U.S. dollar trend round out a week where the data, not the chart, may steer the next move.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key EUR/USD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rally Presses Yearly Trend Resistance Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Rebound Challenges the July Downtrend Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
The currency markets have no major announcements to focus on today, so ranges are likely to be watched by most.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EURUSD trades around 1.15462, extending its climb to fresh highs above both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs. Source: TradingView. The euro looks like it is testing the 1.1560 level, an area that had been important previously on a swing high, so we’ll have to see if we can break above there. It certainly looks like it’s struggling, but I also recognize that recently the 1.15 level had been support. Typically speaking, this is a pretty choppy pair, and when we zoom out on the longer-term charts, we start to see that we are approaching an area that historically has seen a lot of chop and noise. So a little bit of a pullback here would not be surprising to me at all. Certainly, we are seeing interest rates in America try to turn back around to the upside during the early part of the session, so something worth keeping an eye on.
USD/CHF Technical Analysis USDCHF trades around 0.80930, holding below the 0.81000 level and both its 50-period and 200-period EMAs. Source: TradingView. Currently, the US dollar and the Swiss franc seem to be very consolidated, and this is typical for this pair. But the interest rate differential most certainly favors the US dollar, and carry traders will be attracted to the wide spread here that they collect at any close of the day, especially with a lot of traders on Wednesday getting triple swap. Looks like the area right around 0.81 continues to be a magnet for price.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBPUSD trades around 1.34708, pushing back toward its recent high above both the 50-period and 200-period EMAs. Source: TradingView. And finally, the British pound is stretching towards the 1.35 level. This is a lot like the euro in the sense that we had reached close to a swing high and failed a bit. Rates in the United States climbing a little bit early may provide a little bit of a headwind as well. 1.35 being broken would obviously be a strong headline because of the large round psychological number. It could bring in more buyers; we’d have to wait and see.
Currently, the 1.3435 level or so looks to be support. Could be range-bound. Today has no major economic announcements of any serious consequence. And with that, it would make sense if traders were a little bit range-bound and indecisive.
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The AUD/JPY forex pair has declined sharply since late July and for a carry trade favourite, investors are weighing how to position themselves The Australian dollar has seen a significant depreciation against the Japanese yen since late July. The AUD/JPY exchange rate declined from approximately 114.50 to lows between 109 and 110. While a rebound of over 1% yesterday pushed the pair above 111, it has since eased again.
These movements are influenced by differing central bank policies, the potential for intervention, and evolving market expectations for both the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
What Drove AUD/JPY Sell-off and Rebound? The sharp decrease in AUD/JPY during late July primarily resulted from a global unwinding of yen-funded carry trades. Previously, market participants borrowed yen at low interest rates to invest in currencies offering higher yields, such as the Australian dollar. However, market changes necessitated a rapid liquidation of these leveraged positions, leading to substantial buying of the yen across major currency pairs.
A notable factor emerged on July 30 when a rapid appreciation of the yen against major currencies led to widespread market speculation of official intervention by Japanese authorities. The AUD/JPY pair dropped more than 1.3% on that day and continued its downward trend in the following sessions, reaching its lowest point in several weeks.
Although Tokyo has not officially confirmed intervention, the magnitude of the currency move, combined with prior warnings regarding excessive yen weakness, provided strong indications to traders.
Yesterday’s temporary 1.0% rebound was sparked by a short-term resurgence in global equity markets and a temporary stabilization in risk appetite.
But the pair couldn’t hold onto those gains during today’s trading, which showed how vulnerable it still is. Softer commodity prices, particularly crude oil and industrial metals, have kept the growth-sensitive Aussie dollar struggling.
Near-Term Momentum and Outlook Yesterday’s rebound proved the pair can still draw buyers when the yen eases up or broader risk appetite improves. But since it couldn’t hold onto those gains today, it seems the risk of intervention is still capping any rise.
Traders are now looking ahead to the RBA’s next decision and any further signals from the BoJ, like the summary of opinions and upcoming Japanese inflation data.
In the near term, AUD/JPY might trade in a wider range. Support could hold near recent lows of 109-110, with resistance possibly around 112-113. For a lasting recovery, we’d need clearer signs that Japanese authorities are stepping back, and that Australian data actually back up the current yield advantage.
On the other hand, more yen strength or a dovish shift in RBA expectations could extend the decline.
Over the medium term, the outlook depends on how quickly policies adjust. If the BoJ speeds up normalization while the RBA remains on hold, the yield gap would narrow and favor the yen.
If Australian inflation proves more persistent and Japanese tightening remains gradual, carry demand could reassert itself and lift the pair once intervention fears calm down.
What caused the AUD/JPY to drop sharply at the end of July?
It fell fast because yen-funded carry trades were quickly unwound, and global commodity prices cooled down.
How are the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan affecting the AUD/JPY right now?
The RBA has stopped raising rates, and the Bank of Japan is starting to normalize its policies. This means the difference in interest rates between Australia and Japan is getting smaller.
Why did the AUD/JPY suddenly jump 1% yesterday?
Yesterday’s quick rise happened because global stock markets temporarily bounced back, and investors felt a bit more willing to take risks for a short while.
Gold prices rose in early Wednesday trading, touching a one-month high as European markets opened. Traders remain optimistic that the United States and Iran could reach a peace agreement that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. This optimism, reflected in lower oil prices, has also prompted investors to scale back expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates before the end of the year. As a result, the US dollar weakened against most major currencies, benefiting gold due to the inverse relationship between the two assets. Against this backdrop, investors will continue to monitor developments in the Persian Gulf while also turning their attention to this week's US labour market data, culminating in Friday's all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report. Employment figures pointing to a resilient US economy would strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy, supporting the dollar and likely weighing on gold prices. Conversely, weaker-than-expected data would reduce expectations of further interest rate hikes, potentially triggering renewed dollar weakness and providing additional support for the precious metal.
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You might be excused to wonder: what the hell is happening at ASA? In ASA Gold & Precious Metals Ltd.’s (NYSE:ASA) semi-annual report, Saba partner Paul Kazarian had the audacity to write: “We thank you for your continued support” having seized management of ASA wearing the hat of “Chair of the Investment Committee”. The first month after pushing out Merk Investments (“Merk”) as ASA’s investment manager had a fitting end, with ASA’s discount widening to -17.26% — that’s how much “support” investors give ASA’s internal Investment Committee currently managing ASA.
How we got hereTo understand where this may be headed, start with how we got here. In case you missed it, some context: after a tenure of over seven years of delivering best-in-class performance, literally beating every peer, both absolutely and on a risk-adjusted basis, ASA’s Board, with all Board members hand-picked by Saba and its Chair, a Saba partner, terminated Merk’s Investment Advisory Agreement effective June 30, 2026. The reason? In the semi-annual report, the cited reason was “the Independent Directors’ general reservations related to Merk’s approach to portfolio risk.” Fun fact: the Board commissioned an independent risk analysis by Broadridge (that Merk only got to see the evening before the Board meeting that was to decide on the renewal of the Advisory Agreement); that report supported Merk’s analysis that the Fund’s performance was due to Merk’s investment process rather than excessive risk taking.
In any case, Saba for years complained about the Fund’s discount. As a closed-end fund, ASA does not trade at Net Asset Value (NAV), but based on supply and demand in the market. Throughout Merk’s tenure, the Fund’s discount had gradually been narrowing. Except, that is, until Saba finally disclosed its true intentions in January, 2026, that they would like to have the Board repurpose the Fund into a Saba-managed vehicle. The Fund’s discount really started blowing out in July, 2026 with Merk gone and no further communication from the Board about its intentions. Saba in June, 2026 clarified they would like the Fund to be a Business Development Company under Saba management, with profit sharing for Saba. Note that this is Saba making proposals about the Fund’s future, ever more specific, but ASA’s Board - with all Board members hand-picked by Saba - has remained silent.
What happens to ASA now?ASA’s Board still has not told shareholders what it intends to do. Saba has shown its cards, however, the Board has not. Saba wants ASA’s mining portfolio liquidated, the Fund repurposed, and a Saba-managed vehicle installed—with management fees and profit sharing for Saba. What does it mean when an Investment Committee with no mining expertise manages a mining fund? What can shareholders expect?
ASA can temporarily assign the Advisory Agreement to someone else - or have it internally managed - but only for 150 days (late November) without going to shareholders. As I have written, shareholders have had no real voice and a vote at this stage cannot undo the damage that has been done.We don’t know what ASA’s Board will do, and it is possible that, in response to public pressure, they will amend their plans. My baseline has been that the Board will want to liquidate ASA’s portfolio, then repurpose the Fund. However, ASA must follow its investment mandate to invest 80% of its holdings in precious metals mining related securities, unless the Board gets shareholder approval to change the Fund’s strategy.Is the portfolio already changing?Rather than guess, Merk built a dashboard to watch for style drift in real time. We only have one month of data, so it is too early to draw firm conclusions. For now, the Fund’s portfolio appears to be coasting along. The benchmark GDMNTR listed is the underlying index to GDX, the mining ETF. Source for the data is Bloomberg.
To prepare the portfolio for potential liquidation, I would expect to see a trimming or elimination of some of the least liquid securities to reduce the risk of front-running in the market.
Share repurchase program In limbo?Separately, a bit of a head scratcher is that we have not seen any share repurchases of ASA since Merk stepped down on July 1, 2026. Historically, the most recent calendar quarter’s share repurchases were posted on ASA’s website - this has not yet taken place. Share repurchases are historically also reflected in Bloomberg. Below is a chart of Bloomberg’s report on shares outstanding in ASA, suggesting there might not have been any repurchases in July. In contrast, in April, when Merk was still the investment adviser, the Board felt so strongly about resuming share repurchases when the program was suspended that it issued a Form 8-K to release non-public information into the market that held up the program per Merk’s standard process. So either ASA is processing repurchases sloppily, it has legal reasons to suspend the program, something else is happening, or some combination of these applies. A legitimate reason to suspend the share repurchase program would be that material developments are underway that have not yet been disclosed to shareholders. To be clear, it is possible that repurchases have continued; there may be technical reasons why we don’t see them.
The coattail riders move inWhile the Board remains silent and share repurchases may have been paused, a different group of investors appears to be moving in.
Based on my analysis of public filings, it appears some investors have bought ASA in the hope to capture the discount through a future tender offer. What Saba does with the Fund afterward may be secondary to them—but not if Saba restructures ASA first and makes all ASA shareholders bear the related costs before they are given an exit. Saba’s June filing proposed “a limited cash tender offer and a limited tender offer for a proportional share of the portfolio’s remaining assets.” One possibility is that selected portfolio sales are being used to test liquidity and determine which assets could be included in a cash tender—and which might be left behind. That is my interpretation, not an announced Board plan.
As I have written, I believe that ASA must not delay, but offer shareholders an exit at NAV now. Importantly, the Board must not restructure the Fund before allowing investors to exit. It’s in Saba’s interest to potentially do this later, and they may well want to participate in the tender offer themselves (so that they can redeploy their assets for future activism), but they also need the voting power of their shares to support their agenda.
I am not writing this from the sidelines. I own more than 300,000 ASA shares, or about 1.7% of the Fund. After my resignation as COO of ASA, I no longer have to make public filings about my personal transactions in ASA. If the portfolio is “coasting along” and a tender offer is forthcoming, I am currently comfortable holding my nose and continuing to hold my shares. With the discount widening, the upside potential from a tender offer is increasing. Shame on the Board, though, that they have let it come to this stage and not already offered shareholders an exit and informed shareholders of their plans. Saba likes to portray itself as acting in the interest of shareholders, closing discounts. As this episode at ASA should make abundantly clear, Saba seemingly couldn’t care less about other investors, but does like the prospect of amassing more assets to increase its management fees.
USD/CAD is rising again as oil price decline adds pressure on the loonie, but there's much more that could define its trajectory. The USD/CAD has been going up for the last three days, getting close to the 1.4050–1.4065 range again. The main reason the Canadian dollar weakened recently was a big drop in global oil prices, but the connection between the US and Canadian economies is about more than just energy.
What Is Driving USD/CAD Momentum? As a major net exporter of crude oil, Canada’s currency is heavily tied to global energy benchmarks. With West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude experiencing downward pressure amid global demand concerns, reduced energy export revenues directly diminish CAD sentiment.
Market analysis suggests that the pair’s momentum reflects a broader consolidation pattern. This pattern is influenced by differing economic performance between the U.S. and Canada.
While U.S. consumer spending and service sector indicators have shown continued underlying strength, Canada’s domestic economy is experiencing tighter credit conditions for consumers and slower job market growth.
Weak U.S. economic data and diminishing expectations of immediate interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have limited further appreciation of the USD/CAD. This has resulted in a steady but not rapid upward trend for the pair, currently around the 1.4080 level.
Traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US employment and services data. If this data confirms continued strength in the US economy, it could lead to a bigger difference in monetary policy. On the other hand, rising oil prices or a general market optimism would benefit the Canadian dollar. Global political news could also quickly reverse oil’s recent decline.
Interest Rates, Hold Sway Monetary policy differences have been a more consistent influence than oil prices in recent months. The Federal Reserve has maintained a higher interest rate policy compared to the Bank of Canada, which has increased demand for U.S. assets and put downward pressure on the Canadian dollar.
The difference in yields continues to favor the U.S. dollar, and markets are still evaluating the likelihood of further tightening by the Fed against potential adjustments to Canadian interest rates.
Trade relationships also play a role. New U.S. tariffs on certain Canadian goods and the ongoing status of the CUSMA trade agreement create uncertainty for Canadian exporters. Canada’s recent trade surplus has been partly due to a weaker currency and energy exports, but sustained tariff pressure or a slowdown in U.S. demand could diminish these benefits.
Near-Term and Medium-Term Outlook In the short term, market attention will remain highly focused on weekly crude oil inventory reports and key economic data releases from both countries, including U.S. non-farm payrolls and Canadian employment figures.
Looking further ahead, the direction of monetary policy will be the primary driver. The Bank of Canada has adopted a cautious stance on domestic growth, leaving room for potential interest rate adjustments if economic momentum slows.
In contrast, market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path suggest that U.S. yields may remain relatively elevated for an extended period. This ongoing difference in yields supports the U.S. Dollar, making significant pullbacks in USD/CAD unlikely without a substantial recovery in commodity prices.
How do crude oil price movements directly impact the Canadian dollar?
Because crude oil is Canada’s primary export, declining oil prices reduce export revenues, dampening demand for the Canadian currency.
How does central bank policy divergence affect the medium-term outlook for USD/CAD?
Higher relative U.S. interest rates create favorable yield spreads for the greenback, capping potential Canadian dollar strength over coming months.
How might trade policy affect the pair ahead?
New U.S. tariffs and uncertainty around the CUSMA agreement could weigh on Canadian exports, potentially supporting USD/CAD if unresolved in the coming months.
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Silver (XAG/USD) has found some resistance at the $61.90 area on Wednesday, before pulling back to $61.24 at the moment of writing, but remains above the top of the last four weeks’ range, at the $60.90 area. The white metal appreciates for the second consecutive day, supported by lower US Treasury yields, as soft US data and lower Oil prices have dampened expectations of immediate Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Analysts at MUFG observe that the US Dollar has faced renewed selling since last week’s FOMC meeting, with the “dollar index back below the 100.00-level after hitting a high at 101.64 last week.” They highlight this pullback as evidence that the latest bout of Dollar weakness has extended in the wake of the policy decision.
On Tuesday, US Factory Orders and JOLTS Job Openings missed expectations, and investors pared back hopes of a quarter-point rate hike in September to 58% from 67% a day before, according to data by the CME Group's Fed Watch Tool. The market will be attentive to the US ADP employment report due later on Wednesday and, above all, to the Nonfarm Payrolls release on Friday, to confirm those views.
Technical Analysis: A bullish Head & Shoulders pattern in progress
XAG/USD trades at $61.35 at the time of writing, on track for a nearly 6% rally over the last two days. Price action has breached the neckline of a bullish Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern at the mid $59.00 highlighting a constructive near-term bias. Bulls, however, must breach July's top, at $63.12, to confirm a trend shift.
Momentum indicators in the 4-hour chart are supportive. The Relative Strength Index (14) hovers near 68, flirting with overbought territory, which warns about the possibility of a bearish correction. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive and continues to edge higher, reinforcing the bullish tone.
On the topside, above session highs at $61.90, the next target is the mentioned July's top, at $63.12. Further up, the H&S' measured target is around $65.65. On the downside, immediate support emerges at session lows, around $59.35, which is also the headline of the H&S formation, ahead of the late-July lows at the $56.65 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Euro (EUR) trades 0.15% higher at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The major currency pair gains as the US Dollar faces selling pressure ahead of a busy North American session.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 99.70.
Markets eye US data and Fed speakers amid mixed policy signalsAnalysts at Danske Bank note that attention today will center on a potential SOH deal announcement alongside key US data releases, including July private sector employment from ADP and the July reading of the ISM Services index. They point out that "ADP's weekly estimates have pointed towards cooling employment growth from June," while the ISM Services print will be watched closely after "the earlier flash PMI pointing to an uptick in business activity."
On the policy front, Danske highlights a busy slate of Fed communication, with "the Fed's Cook (voter, neutral) on the wires in the evening, while Daly (non-voter) is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks overnight into Thursday." The bank also underscores the divergence in recent Fed commentary: Kansas City Fed's Schmid, described as a "non-voter, hawk," argued that monetary policy is "not yet restrictive given strong demand and investment," signaling that "further tightening may be needed." In contrast, Philly Fed's Paulson, a "voter, dove," pushed back against rapid rate hikes, saying policy is likely already "mildly restrictive" and that it "was not a close call to keep rates steady (in July)."
On the Euro front, investors seek fresh cues regarding the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate expectations. Analysts at Deutsche Bank said in a note that ECB September hike pricing is around 90%.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1550. The pair trades close to the downward resistance trend line and above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1462, which collectively suggests a constructive near-term bias.
Momentum aligns with this view, as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 is pushing into bullish territory without yet signaling extreme overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support is at the 20-day EMA near 1.1462, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge on a deeper pullback. Below that, the pair could extend the decline towards the July 28 low at 1.1353. Looking up, the pair could extend the advance towards 1.1600 if it manages to break above the downward-sloping trendline.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Next release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Consensus: 70K
Previous: 98K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Trades around 1.3450; bulls retain control above 100-hour SMAThe GBP/USD pair gains follow-through positive traction for the second straight day and sticks to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and currently trade just above mid-1.3400s, up less than 0.10% for the day.
The latest optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old war in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dragged crude oil prices to a four-week low, easing inflation fears. Traders were quick to react and trimmed their bets for an imminent Fed rate hike. This, in turn, undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which is seen acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Read more...
British Pound grinds higher above 1.3450 ahead of US ADP Employment releaseThe GBP/USD pair posts modest gains near 1.3455 during the early European session on Wednesday, bolstered by softer US economic data and cooling US-Iran tensions. Traders brace for the US ADP Employment and ISM Services Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) reports, which are due on Wednesday. Markets might turn cautious later this week ahead of the US July jobs data.
The US JOLTS Job Openings declined to 7.359 million in June, compared to the 7.537 million openings reported in May, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Tuesday. This figure came in below the market expectation of 7.4 million. Read more...
British Pound weakens as US Dollar gains despite easing safe-haven demandGBP/USD edges lower after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 1.3450 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency pair came under selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) gained momentum, bolstered by a rebound in the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield, which had dipped toward 4.61% on Tuesday. That initial slide in yields was driven by falling energy prices, which helped cool inflation fears and tempered expectations of a hawkish response from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
However, the Greenback may face further challenges due to easing safe-haven demand amid building diplomatic momentum around a potential agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Qatari officials announced on Tuesday that an interim proposal had been drafted, with both Washington and Tehran signaling tangible progress toward restoring access to the critical maritime transit route. This diplomatic breakthrough follows US President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend planned military strikes against Iran, choosing instead to give negotiations space while maintaining his call for the immediate reopening of the waterway. Read more...
USD/JPY fell to 157.47 on Wednesday, with the Japanese yen pausing its recent strengthening. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed Washington’s support for Japan following the historic joint currency intervention.
Over three sessions, the yen appreciated by nearly 5% after coordinated purchases by Tokyo and Washington, marking the largest such operation in decades. Both countries have declared their readiness to intervene again if necessary.
According to the Bank of Japan, Tokyo deployed approximately 5.33 trillion yen during Friday’s operations to support the currency. The previous day, media reports indicated that intervention volumes had reached a record 8.45 trillion yen.
In July 2026, the yen had fallen to four-decade lows, weighed down by rising energy prices, budget risks, and a wide interest rate differential. In parallel, real wages in Japan rose for the sixth consecutive month in June, strengthening the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 157.17 level, currently extending up to 157.90. A move lower towards 157.17 is expected today, followed by a move higher to 159.10. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing upwards.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward move to 156.22, followed by a rise to 157.90. A move lower towards at least 157.17 is expected next, followed by a move higher to 159.10. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion USD/JPY has stabilised after a historic joint intervention by Japanese and US authorities, which drove a nearly 5% appreciation in the yen over three sessions. Both countries have signalled readiness to act again if needed, with Tokyo deploying record intervention volumes. The yen had previously fallen to multi-decade lows due to high energy prices, fiscal concerns, and interest rate differentials. However, rising real wages and signals from the Bank of Japan may support further yen strength. Technically, USD/JPY appears to be consolidating around 157.17, with a potential pullback towards this level before resuming an upward move to 159.10. The pair’s direction remains uncertain, hinging on further intervention, Bank of Japan policy signals, and global risk sentiment.
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Gold (XAU/USD) climbs to a one-month high on Wednesday as renewed optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz sends Oil prices lower. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,155, up nearly 1.90% on the day.
US President Donald Trump said Washington had "very good discussions" with Iran during day-long negotiations on Tuesday. Trump added that the Strait "is going to be open very soon."
Axios reported that the United States, Iran and Oman are nearing an interim deal that could be announced as early as Wednesday. The proposed deal would establish a temporary 60-day arrangement between Iran and Oman to restore shipping.
Strategists at ING note that “lower energy prices have eased some inflation concerns, offering a more supportive backdrop for bullion,” even as investors continue to weigh the policy outlook. They point out that “markets continue to assess the outlook for US monetary policy following last week's Federal Reserve meeting,” leaving Gold “caught between improving geopolitical sentiment and ongoing uncertainty over US interest rates.”
Can Gold move higher from here?Despite improving market sentiment, the US Dollar (USD) is showing only limited weakness as traders await concrete signs that shipping through the Strait will resume. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades flat around 99.85.
US Treasury yields have pulled back from recent highs but remain elevated as broader inflation concerns support expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates higher for longer. All this could keep a lid on Gold’s upside.
A further decline in Oil prices, which could weaken hawkish Fed expectations, may be needed for the yellow metal to extend its rally.
Traders now look ahead to US labour market data, including the ADP Employment Change report later on Wednesday and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, for fresh clues about the Fed’s next move. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets still price in around a 56% chance of a September rate hike, down from about 67% a day earlier.
Technical analysis: Buyers challenge the 50-day SMA
On the daily chart, XAU/USD has pushed back above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,064, hinting at a constructive near-term tone, but it remains capped just beneath the 50-day SMA at $4,160, keeping the broader stance neutral rather than outright bullish.
Momentum is improving, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in positive territory, suggesting buyers are attempting to regain control while still facing near-term trend resistance.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50-day SMA at $4,160, followed by the horizontal barrier at $4,200. A daily close above this zone would open the way toward the 100-day SMA near $4,398. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 21-day SMA at $4,064, ahead of the psychological and chart floor at $4,000, where a break lower would signal a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
A sustained move over the 50-day moving average will indicate the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the next swing top at $63.28. Taking out this top would put the 200-day moving average at $70.92 on the radar.
On the downside, a sustained move back under the major 50% level at $60.835 will signal the return of sellers. If this creates enough downside momentum, look for a near-term pullback to $58.00.
What to Watch Silver needs crude staying lower, yields staying contained and the dollar staying under pressure. All three lined up this week and that is why the move has been fast. If any one of them reverses, the rally gets tested.
Friday’s jobs report can either extend this trade or kill it. A weak number with softer wages keeps the dollar unwind going and gives buyers room to push toward the 50-day moving average. A strong print with firm hiring, hands Schmid and the rest of the hawks exactly what they need, and the rate trade reassembles.
The swing chart trend has changed to up but buyers are chasing a macro relief trade, not a structural shift. They have momentum as long as the data cooperates. The moment it stops cooperating, sellers have a clean level to come back in at.
USD/JPY fell to 157.47 on Wednesday, with the Japanese yen pausing its recent strengthening. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed Washington’s support for Japan following the historic joint currency intervention.
Over three sessions, the yen appreciated by nearly 5% after coordinated purchases by Tokyo and Washington, marking the largest such operation in decades. Both countries have declared their readiness to intervene again if necessary.
According to the Bank of Japan, Tokyo deployed approximately 5.33 trillion yen during Friday’s operations to support the currency. The previous day, media reports indicated that intervention volumes had reached a record 8.45 trillion yen.
In July 2026, the yen had fallen to four-decade lows, weighed down by rising energy prices, budget risks, and a wide interest rate differential. In parallel, real wages in Japan rose for the sixth consecutive month in June, strengthening the case for further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.
Technical analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 157.17 level, currently extending up to 157.90. A move lower towards 157.17 is expected today, followed by a move higher to 159.10. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing upwards.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed a downward move to 156.22, followed by a rise to 157.90. A move lower towards at least 157.17 is expected next, followed by a move higher to 159.10. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionUSD/JPY has stabilised after a historic joint intervention by Japanese and US authorities, which drove a nearly 5% appreciation in the yen over three sessions. Both countries have signalled readiness to act again if needed, with Tokyo deploying record intervention volumes. The yen had previously fallen to multi-decade lows due to high energy prices, fiscal concerns, and interest rate differentials. However, rising real wages and signals from the Bank of Japan may support further yen strength. Technically, USD/JPY appears to be consolidating around 157.17, with a potential pullback towards this level before resuming an upward move to 159.10. The pair’s direction remains uncertain, hinging on further intervention, Bank of Japan policy signals, and global risk sentiment.
Gold is pushing higher for the 3rd day in a row, which we have not seen for 5 weeks.
Gold beat minor trend line resistance at 4090/4100 to target last week's high at 4119/4120.
We are testing minor resistance at the 1 month descending trend line at 4135/4140.
A sustained break above 4140 tests Fibonacci resistance at 4160/4170.
The rally is taking baby steps at the moment as we tackle the minor resistance levels.
I am hoping this is the start of a bullish breakout so maybe shorts are too risky.
A break above 4175 should be a medium term buy signal and hopefully we can run up quite quickly - initially to 4210/4215.
For now I will hope that this is the start of a bull run and therefore I will suggest buying at minor support at 4095/4090 & longs need stops below 4085.
Gold (XAU/USD) has accelerated its recovery on Wednesday, favoured by a softer US Dollar as lower Oil prices and downbeat US macroeconomic data cooled market expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes on Tuesday. This has enticed Gold buyers to push the precious metal above the top of a triangle pattern, at the $4,125 area, in a move that is still to be confirmed.
Bullion is drawing support from lower US Treasury yields, following softer-than-expected US Job Openings and Factory Orders figures released on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the decline in Oil prices, with the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading $10 below last week's highs, has eased concerns about the inflationary impact of energy prices. In this context, investors have cut back bets of a Fed rate hike in September to 58% from 67% on Tuesday, according to data by the CME’s Fed Watch Tool.
Technical Analysis: Gold needs to break $4,220 to confirm a deeper correction
XAU/USD trades at $4,161, holding a constructive near-term bias after reaching one-week highs above the top of a descending triangle. Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts endorse the positive view, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 hinting at a building bullish while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) slightly above zero strengthens the case for a moderate upside bias.
Bulls, however, will have to clear the horizontal barrier around $4,220 (June 22 highs) to confirm a bullish reversal and set sail for the mid-June highs, at $4,380.
A bearish reaction, on the other hand, is likely to find support at the $4,000 psychological level, although the key support area lies at the $3,945 area, the bottom of the mentioned triangle. A confirmation below here negates the bullish view and brings the late October 2025 lows, at $3,886, into play.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Euro took advantage on the Intervention with the Yen to test the downtrend as we see from the chart, which in return pushed for a correction
A trading zone between 1.1435 and 1.1560 could hold prices until one of the boundaries break.
Above 1.1560 could open the door towards 1.1685 and 1.1795.
Below 1.1435 more of a drop toward 1.1320 and 1.1210 is likely.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 1.435-80 1.1560 LEVEL2 1.1320 1.1685 LEVEL3 1.1210 1.1795 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
The Yen gave back some of its recent advance that was triggered by US and Japanese intervention.
As we see over the chart, we could see wide range of trading, first between 155.00 and the resistance of 158.05, as the market demands a rebound.
As long as the market remains below 160.85, the drop scenario could return.
When the Bank of Japan began the Intervention, the peak was around 163.97 which could sustain as resistance.
If the Yen retreats again, traders could expect another Intervention.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 155.00 158.05 LEVEL2 152.10-30 160.85 LEVEL3 145.00 163.80 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $61.52 per troy ounce, up 2.87% from the $59.81 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 13.45% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.64 on Wednesday, down from 68.18 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
TL;DR: AUD/USD is rallying on improving risk sentiment and a softer Dollar, but the same falling oil prices driving that optimism are also weakening two of Australia’s own fundamental supports — explaining why the pair has lagged the broader market risk momentum.
A Rally That Looks Surprisingly Restrained AUD/USD has staged a rally over the past two days, benefiting from a broad improvement in global risk sentiment, a softer US Dollar, and surging industrial commodity prices. Yet the Aussie’s momentum has looked surprisingly restrained. Wall Street has pushed to fresh record highs, Asian equities have rebounded, and copper has climbed to another record — but AUD/USD has merely edged toward resistance rather than breaking decisively higher.
The contrast suggests the market is weighing two very different implications of the same geopolitical story. Optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen is undoubtedly supporting risk assets globally, but it’s also lowering oil prices in a way that weakens some of Australia’s own fundamental supports. The result is a currency pair caught between powerful global tailwinds and equally meaningful domestic headwinds.
Risk Appetite Is Providing Plenty of Support There’s little doubt the global backdrop has become more supportive for growth-sensitive currencies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to another record high overnight, while both Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s KOSPI surged more than 3.5%, reflecting a broad-based improvement in investor confidence rather than isolated strength in individual markets. Such an environment has traditionally favored the Australian Dollar, often treated as a high-beta proxy for global growth expectations.
Commodity markets have reinforced that narrative. Copper has climbed to fresh record highs this week, supported by structural demand from AI-related infrastructure investment and ongoing supply constraints in China. For Australia, this is particularly significant — copper isn’t merely another commodity but an important contributor to the country’s terms of trade, meaning sustained gains normally translate into stronger support for the Australian Dollar.
At the same time, the US Dollar has weakened as markets rapidly scaled back expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening. The probability of the Fed leaving rates unchanged in September has risen sharply over the past two days, as hopes of a Strait of Hormuz reopening reduced fears of another energy-driven inflation shock. Lower Treasury yields have weighed broadly on the Dollar, providing AUD/USD with an additional lift even without any improvement in Australia’s own economic outlook.
The Same Oil Story Is Working Against Australia The complication is that the very catalyst supporting global markets is simultaneously creating domestic headwinds for the Australian Dollar.
Lower oil prices reduce imported inflation pressures, reinforcing recent market repricing that the Reserve Bank of Australia can comfortably remain on hold after softer inflation and cooling labor market data. Markets had already moved toward expecting a prolonged pause in the RBA’s tightening cycle; falling energy prices only strengthen that conviction by reducing one of the principal upside risks to inflation.
Oil also matters to Australia through a less obvious but equally important channel. A large share of Australia’s LNG exports is priced against Japanese Customs-Cleared Crude benchmarks. As Brent declines, Australia’s export revenues from LNG become less supportive for the country’s terms of trade. In other words, the same fall in oil prices that boosts global equities also removes one of the Australian Dollar’s traditional sources of fundamental support.
This explains why AUD/USD has lagged behind the broader improvement in market sentiment. The global risk environment argues for a stronger Australian Dollar, but Australia’s own interest rate outlook and export dynamics are pulling in the opposite direction.
ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/USD Technically, AUD/USD’s rebound from 0.6864 resumed by breaking through temporary top today. For now, further rally is expected as long as 0.6983 minor support holds. The next target is the 100% projection of 0.6864 to 0.7026 from 0.6921, at 0.7021. A decisive break there would argue the rebound is an impulsive move — and, more importantly, add to the case that it’s reversing the whole fall from 0.7277. In that scenario, further rally should be seen to the 161.8% projection at 0.7183 next.
However, rejection at or below 0.7021, followed by a break of 0.6983, will turn focus back to 0.6921. A firm break there would argue the rebound has completed as a corrective move, in turn suggesting the fall from 0.7277 is ready to resume through the 0.6864 low.
Key Takeaways AUD/USD has lagged Wall Street’s record highs, a 3.5%+ Asian equity surge, and record copper prices despite the same optimism driving all three. Falling oil prices, tied to Strait of Hormuz reopening hopes, are cutting two ways: supporting global risk assets while reducing Australia’s imported inflation and LNG export revenue. Markets are increasingly confident the RBA can stay on hold, and falling energy prices reinforce that view by removing a key upside inflation risk. A softer US Dollar, driven by fading Fed tightening expectations, is providing AUD/USD support independent of any change in Australia’s own outlook. 0.7021 is the key resistance for confirming an impulsive rebound toward 0.7183; a break of 0.6921 would instead point to a resumed fall toward 0.6864.
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The GBP/USD pair gains follow-through positive traction for the second straight day and sticks to modest intraday gains through the first half of the European session on Wednesday. Spot prices, however, lack bullish conviction and currently trade just above mid-1.3400s, up less than 0.10% for the day.
The latest optimism over a diplomatic resolution to end the five-month-old war in the Middle East and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dragged crude oil prices to a four-week low, easing inflation fears. Traders were quick to react and trimmed their bets for an imminent Fed rate hike. This, in turn, undermines the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which is seen acting as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair.
Investors, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for further developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict. Furthermore, the closely watched US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday would be looked for more cues about the Fed's policy path. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and providing fresh impetus to the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices keep the near-term tone constructive while above the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA). Moreover, momentum indicators are mildly supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) marginally positive near the zero line. This suggests steady bullish pressure as long as the GBP/USD pair remains above the underlying average.
Hence, any corrective pullback is more likely to attract fresh buyers near the 1.3400 mark, which should limit the downside near the 200-period SMA pivotal support around 1.3379. A convincing break below, however, would weaken the bullish bias and open the way to deeper losses. On the top side, bulls may look to the weekly top, around the 1.3500 psychological mark, as a reference point for potential resistance should the GBP/USD pair extend its advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 1-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Following last week’s sharp decline, the US dollar has entered a consolidation phase against most major currencies. At the same time, some instruments, including USD/JPY, are showing a moderate recovery as markets await fresh macroeconomic signals. Today’s key event will be the release of the preliminary ADP private-sector employment report. Forecasts suggest that job growth will slow to 68,000 after 98,000 in the previous month. If the data comes in below expectations, pressure on the dollar could increase as markets price in a more dovish Federal Reserve stance. Conversely, a stronger report could support the US currency ahead of the official US labour market data release.
Additional attention will be focused on US services sector activity indicators. Markets expect the preliminary S&P Global Services PMI to improve to 53.6 points, while the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is forecast to rise to 54.5. Strong readings could partly offset any weakness in the ADP report and confirm the resilience of the largest sector of the US economy. It is worth noting that market participants traditionally view the ADP report only as an early indicator ahead of the official Nonfarm Payrolls release. Although the trends in the two reports do not always align, today’s data could significantly influence short-term expectations regarding the health of the US labour market.
USD/JPY Last week, following the Federal Reserve meeting, USD/JPY declined sharply, losing more than 500 pips over several trading sessions. At the beginning of the current week, after testing the key support level at 155.30, buyers managed to push the pair back towards 158.00, while forming a “doji” candlestick pattern, which may signal a weakening of the bearish momentum. If the price breaks above yesterday’s high, the corrective move could extend towards 158.70–159.40. Weaker US employment data could trigger a renewed downward move.
Key events for USD/JPY:
Today at 15:15 (GMT+3): ADP change in US non-farm private employment; Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): US Services PMI; Tomorrow at 17:00 (GMT+3): US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
USD/CAD Last week, USD/CAD retested the key support level around 1.4000, forming a “bullish harami” pattern after the rebound. Technical analysis of USD/CAD suggests the potential for further recovery towards 1.4130–1.4170. Weaker US economic data, however, could trigger another test of the 1.4000 level.
Key events for USD/CAD:
Today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories; Today at 23:05 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Reserve Governor Lisa D. Cook; Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+3): Canada Services PMI.
The main drivers for the US dollar today will be the preliminary ADP employment figures and US services sector activity data. If the releases confirm the resilience of the US economy, USD/JPY and USD/CAD could continue their recovery following the dollar’s recent correction. Weaker data, on the other hand, could strengthen expectations of a more accommodative Fed policy, adding further pressure on the US currency and allowing sellers to regain control. However, investors are likely to draw more definitive conclusions about the labour market after the official Nonfarm Payrolls report is released later this week.
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The Aussie and the Kiwi are telling two very different monetary policy stories right now, and the divergence is starting to show up clearly in the cross. The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% in August, but the hawkish tone that once dominated has faded fast: Q2 inflation cooled to 3.9% from 4.1%, prompting Goldman Sachs to abandon its call for one final hike this year. Markets now price next to no chance of an August move, with only roughly even odds of a hike by November.
Across the Tasman, the RBNZ is playing a different game entirely. Having already hiked to 2.50% in June, the central bank has kept its guidance firmly hawkish, and markets are now almost fully pricing a further 25bp increase in September. Wednesday’s employment data added an interesting twist: employment change q/q beat expectations sharply at 0.5% against 0.1% forecast, yet the unemployment rate also rose to 5.6% from 5.4%, above forecasts—a genuinely mixed print that complicates the otherwise hawkish RBNZ narrative.
The result: a Reserve Bank stepping back from further tightening against one still leaning hawkish, though now facing a labor market sending conflicting signals of its own.
Technical Analysis of AUD/NZD
As AUD/NZD chart shows, the pair broke above the 100-period EMA back in July and is now testing this level again, right where it converges with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement near 1.2011-1.2013. This confluence marks a critical juncture after weeks of steady decline.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break this EMA-Fibonacci confluence decisively, the path would open toward the 0.618 retracement near 1.2037, followed by the descending trendline, which itself converges with the 0.786 level around 1.2073. A break above this second confluence would leave room to retest the 1.2200-1.2250 resistance, the upper boundary of the broader range that has trapped price since April..
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a rejection at the EMA-0.5 confluence would send price back down to retest the 1.1900-1.1950 support, the level that has held since March.. This is the real test: a confirmed break below it would open the door to a more sustained and decisive downtrend.
With price wedged right at this pivotal confluence, and the broader March-to-August range still very much intact, AUD/NZD looks ready to decide whether it’s building toward a genuine breakout, or simply setting up for another rejection within its months-long range.
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FXOpen is a global Forex and CFD Broker, founded in 2005 by a group of traders. With over 16 years of experience, the company has gained an excellent reputation a major brokerage that continues to expand rapidly. The broker offers a choice of platforms, including the popular MT4 and MT5 platforms, with a wide range of trading instruments with spreads from 0.0 pips: 600+ FX, index, share, commodity and cryptocurrency CFDs. FXOpen also provides its own PAMM technology, allowing clients to benefit from the strategies of experienced traders with a proven track record of successful trading and guarantees automatic distribution of profit and loss between the strategy provider and the strategy followers. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money. PAMM is only available in certain jurisdictions. Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to Retail clients at FXOpen UK.
Gold and silver are tracing bullish breakout risks above their June-August consolidations as market optimism grows over a potential US-Iran deal. However, geopolitical risks continue to persist.
As silver breaks above $61 and gold reclaims $4,100, key developments to watch include:
The DXY maintaining its position above its 2026 uptrend and the 99.30 support level. DXY analysis Crude oil holding above $70. Crude oil analysis Inflation uncertainty related to the prolonged disruptions across the Middle East remaining a key concern. Should headlines continue to progress toward a sustainable resolution, market uptrends are expected to extend. However, any deterioration in negotiations could trigger significant downside risks as market sentiment quickly reverses.
To minimize headline noise, price action analysis helps clarify the technical scenarios ahead.
Gold Price Forecast: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a six-month perspective, gold is rebounding from one of the most significant technical confluence zones in decades.
The 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. The long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has now become one of the market's most important long-term support levels in 2026. The close of a six-month shooting star reversal pattern. However, given the significance of this support zone and the fragile nature of the US-Iran situation, a sustained break below this confluence and the 3,930 support level would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement between 3,500 and 3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025.
Whether gold continues its rebound from this area or extends its correction will largely depend on:
Crude oil price direction. Crude Oil Outlook: What the 1973 Oil Embargo Tells Us About the 2026 Hormuz Crisis Developments surrounding the US-Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz. The Federal Reserve's policy outlook and US Treasury yields. US Dollar (DXY), USD/JPY Forecast: Key Levels to Watch Gold Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
In line with the strength of this higher-time-frame support zone, gold is tracing a bullish breakout above the June-August contracting consolidation, ranging between 3,930 and 4,200, and above the descending resistance guiding price action since March 2026.
Key support: 3,960-3,930
Gold Bullish Scenario
A sustained recovery above 4,140 and 4,200 would shift the short-term outlook back in favor of buyers.
That would expose the next resistance levels near the 23.6 – 27.2% retracement of the yearly decline:
4,340 4,400 A breakout above 4,400 would strengthen the case for a broader recovery across precious metals while increasing confidence that the longer-term uptrend has resumed.
Meanwhile, the daily RSI continues to push into bullish territory, suggesting accelerating momentum.
Gold Bearish Scenario
On the downside, a break below the 4,020-3,960-3,930 support zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.
The next downside objectives are:
3,880-3,840, corresponding to the October 2025 lows. 3,700. 3,500-3,460, the well-respected five-month resistance zone throughout 2025 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 advance. These longer-term support zones could provide another significant reversal opportunity.
As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.
Silver Price Forecast: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments.
A shooting star reversal candle. A hold near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. Price action facing the multi-decade trendline connecting the highs recorded between 1980 and 2024, which may now transition from long-term resistance into major support should another breakdown in silver prices occur below $55.
This area also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire advance between $46 and $50.
The shorter-term outlook suggests signs of bullish recovery, which becomes clearer on the daily chart below.
Silver Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a daily perspective, silver is attempting to stabilize above the descending trendline connecting the lower highs formed since May 2026, while also holding above the June-August consolidation and the $61 resistance level.
At the same time, momentum indicators continue pointing higher, remaining above the neutral 50 level and supporting the short-term bullish outlook.
A breakout above $61 exposes $63.80, $68, and $72. A break below $55.50 would expose the longer-term support zone between $50 and $46. Long-Term Outlook
A confirmed breakout above $72 would significantly strengthen confidence that a broader bullish reversal is underway, reopening the path toward triple-digit silver prices over the longer term.
Key Takeaway
The US Dollar Index (DXY) will remain one of the primary benchmarks for both the foreign exchange and precious metals markets as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.
The 101.80-102.00 resistance zone remains the key level to watch for upside risks in the dollar and downside risks across currencies and precious metals. The 99.30 support zone remains the key level to watch for downside risks in the dollar and upside risks across currencies and precious metals. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
The GBPUSD(pound) found a bounce as price action looks to gain a foothold after a recent surge in the dollar.
A new low below 1.3450 suggested a bearish continuation after the recent rally. The upbeat market sentiment could attract more trend followers. The psychological level of 1.3500 is next, where more buyers could enter the market. As the RSI ventures away from the overbought area, 1.3360 is the closest support as a slight bearish divergence emerges.
XAUUSD bounces back
Gold looks to test the recent high at 4100 as the metal looks towards another fresh high.
Prices seem to have found a solid foundation at 4060, from where the bulls hope the precious metal is hitting support. 4020 at the recent low is a critical support to keep the rebound momentum intact. On the upside, a break at the previous top could pave the way to a break at 4140, and then another rally towards a fresh high. USOIL crashes lower
Peace talks intensified as oil traders look for the possibilities of a ceasefire in the Middle East.
A close below 75.50 could open the door to a broader sell-off in the medium-term by forcing buyers to cut their losses. A bullish divergence could alleviate the pressure if there is a turnaround. The round number of 80.00 would be the first target in that case. 73.00 is the level to assess if the sell-off will continue.
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The USD/CHF pair reverses a modest intraday dip and touches a fresh daily high during the early European session on Wednesday, though it remains below the 0.8100 mark. The US Dollar (USD) sticks to its negative bias amid hopes for a US-Iran deal and receding Federal Reserve (Fed) rate-hike expectations, which is seen acting as a headwind for the USD/CHF pair.
Traders, however, seem hesitant to place aggressive bearish bets on the USD and await the release of the US monthly jobs data – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday – for more cues about the Fed's policy path. This, along with further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, will drive the buck and provide a fresh impetus to the USD/CHF pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices hold above the 23.6% Fibonacci level of the recent pullback from the year-to-date high – levels above the 0.8200 mark set in July. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned marginally positive around the zero line, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 hints at modest, rather than decisive, bullish momentum.
This suggests that upside attempts are still constrained by the nearby cluster of overhead resistance near the 0.8100 confluence – comprising the 100-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 38.2% Fibo. level. Further barriers emerge at the 50.0% level at 0.8121 and the 61.8% retracement at 0.8141, before stronger resistance at 0.8169 and the swing high zone near 0.8205.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 23.6% retracement at 0.8077, with a break exposing the cycle low region around 0.8037 as the next bearish target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CHF 1-hour chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.09%0.02%0.06%0.00%0.47%0.06%EUR0.04%-0.04%0.07%0.10%0.05%0.50%0.09%GBP0.09%0.04%0.11%0.14%0.07%0.55%0.14%JPY-0.02%-0.07%-0.11%0.05%-0.00%0.45%0.04%CAD-0.06%-0.10%-0.14%-0.05%-0.05%0.42%-0.01%AUD-0.01%-0.05%-0.07%0.00%0.05%0.46%0.05%NZD-0.47%-0.50%-0.55%-0.45%-0.42%-0.46%-0.39%CHF-0.06%-0.09%-0.14%-0.04%0.01%-0.05%0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) appreciates for the fourth consecutive day against a weaker Canadian Dollar (CAD) on Wednesday, with the USD/CAD pair pushing against weekly highs at 1.4080 at the time of writing. The CAD is struggling as hopes of a negotiated breakthrough in Iran have sent Oil prices tumbling, although soft US data and fading hopes of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes are keeping the USD from appreciating further.
Crude Oil, Canada's main export, accelerated its decline on Tuesday, with the barrel of Brent Oil trading at three-week lows below $80, amid hopes that diplomacy will find its way to resolve the US-Iran conflict. The decline in Oil prices has offset the impact of the bright Canadian Merchandise Trade Surplus, which reached a four-year high in June.
In the US, recent macroeconomic figures have contributed to cool hopes of Fed tightening in the coming months. JOLTS Job Openings showed a larger-than-.expected decline in June, and Factory Orders contracted against expectations. Against this background, expectations of a Fed rate hike in September have dropped to 58%, from 67% on Tuesday, according to data by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, which is posing a significant weight for US Dollar rallies.
Technical Analysis: Approaching the top of a triangle pattern
USD/CAD trades at 1.4072, with immediate price action showing a constructive stance and momentum indicators turning bullish. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed above 58, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holds marginally in positive territory with a flat histogram, hinting at a steady but moderate bullish tone rather than an impulsive breakout.
Bull's confidence, however, is likely to be tested at the top of the descending triangle pattern now at the 1.4090 area. A confirmation above here would clear the path towards the July 27 highs, at the 1.4125 area, ahead of the year-to-date (YTD) highs in the area of 1.4250.
On the downside, the triangle bottom, now around 1.4000, is likely to challenge bears. Further down, the 1.3920 area (June 9 low) and the 1.3865 area (May 28 high, June 5 low) emerge as the next bearish targets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%-0.07%0.00%0.06%0.05%0.50%0.01%EUR0.04%-0.03%0.05%0.10%0.07%0.51%0.05%GBP0.07%0.03%0.06%0.12%0.10%0.56%0.08%JPY0.00%-0.05%-0.06%0.06%0.05%0.48%0.00%CAD-0.06%-0.10%-0.12%-0.06%-0.02%0.45%-0.04%AUD-0.05%-0.07%-0.10%-0.05%0.02%0.45%-0.03%NZD-0.50%-0.51%-0.56%-0.48%-0.45%-0.45%-0.46%CHF-0.01%-0.05%-0.08%-0.01%0.04%0.03%0.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Silver (XAG/USD) builds on the previous day's modest gains and attracts strong follow-through buying for the second straight day on Wednesday. The positive momentum lifts the white metal to the $62.00 neighborhood – the highest level since July 7 – during the early European session.
An intraday breakout through the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour and a two-week-old trading range hurdle near the $60.00 psychological mark were seen as key triggers for the XAG/USD bulls. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.53 signals overbought conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, suggesting that the upside momentum remains strong.
Hence, any subsequent move up beyond the $62.00 mark is likely to confront a hurdle near the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July decline at $62.92. A sustained break there would expose higher Fibo. barriers at $67.98 and $72.08. On the flip side, initial support is pegged near the 200-period SMA at $59.04, ahead of the Fibonacci anchor near $54.73, where buyers could re-emerge on a more pronounced pullback.
Nevertheless, the constructive technical setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the upside as the latest optimism over a potential US-Iran deal continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD). Hence, any corrective slide could be bought into and remain cushioned amid receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which tend to benefit non-yielding commodities, including Silver.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann analysts report GBP/USD traded quietly between 1.3423 and 1.3456 after a prior spike to 1.3506. They expect near‑term consolidation in a 1.3425–1.3470 band. Over 1–3 weeks, momentum has eased but a move toward 1.3555 is still possible as long as 1.3385 holds, while the broader 1–3 month view remains for range trading between 1.3210 and 1.3655.
Range trade with residual upside risk"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, GBP rose to 1.3506 and then pulled back sharply. Yesterday, when GBP was at 1.3430, we highlighted that “the pullback has scope to extend but given that there has been no clear increase in downward momentum, any decline is likely part of a lower range of 1.3400/1.3475.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. GBP traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.3423 and 1.3456. The price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3425 and 1.3470."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), when we indicated that “while strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the significant resistance at 1.3555.” Upward momentum has since eased, but as long as 1.3385 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Key Points:Markets are focused on Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report for fresh Fed policy clues.ADP employment, jobless claims, and labor market data will shape September rate expectations.Softer U.S. economic data has reduced expectations for additional Fed tightening.EUR/USD watches eurozone data as traders assess the ECB's policy outlook.GBP/USD remains supported ahead of key UK labor and growth data while DXY tests major technical support.
US Dollar News: NFP Forecasts and Fed Outlook Drive FX Markets Changes in Federal Reserve policy are the primary drivers of U.S. Dollar trading as market participants analyze upcoming U.S. Labor market data in advance of the July non-Farm Payrolls. This week’s data points include the release of the ADP private sector employment report on Wednesday, the weekly jobless claims report due out on Thursday, and the Friday release of the Payrolls report.
Current estimates suggest the U.S. economy added approximately 95,000 jobs in July, down from 121,000 in June, and the unemployment rate is likely to increase to 4.4% from 4.3%. Earlier this week the job openings data from the JOLTS report for June fell and added evidence that Labor market demand is cooling. Given the recent softer data and lower oil prices, the futures market pegged the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in September at 59% down from the 67% probability earlier this week.
The Euro is benefitting from waning concerns regarding imported inflation in the Eurozone after a dip in energy prices. Market focus is still on the ECB’s decision to leave the deposit rate at 2.25% last month, but market participants are looking to the German release of Industrial Production and Eurozone Retail Sales data for indications on the possible stabilization of the economy. ECB officials stress a meeting by meeting focus as inflation nears the 2% target with the possible re-ignition of price inflation from geopolitical concerns. Economic data of a Eurozone negative growth signal would also support the case for a rate pause.
Sterling is drawing support from falling energy prices after a recent positive engagement between the United States, Iran, and Qatar, which has eased concern about protracted supply disruptions across the Middle East. With the Bank of England having decided on leaving the Bank Rate at 3.75% last week, the focus has now turned to the upcoming UK labour market and growth data.
Investors are watching the UK data to see if inflation is trending down without a substantial negative effect on activity, while the general sentiment in the markets is being influenced by the US Payroll data due on Friday and the changing outlook on US Federal Reserve policy.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Bears Eye Trendline Breakdown Below 99.95 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at 99.84, below the 50-day EMA at 100.41, and supports the long-term ascending trendline at 99.42. The Index has recently attempted to recover the 100.27-100.53 Fibonacci resistance zone. This suggests that price action remains in a downtrend.
The 100-day EMA is located at 99.92, and has offered support. A daily close below the 99.42 long-term trendline support suggests stronger price action to the downside, with 98.76 and 97.95 as potential price targets. Bullish price action would require price action to close above 100.27. Further price targets would then be 100.80 and 101.17.
The RSI is presently at 37 and suggests that price action on the DXY is in a downtrend. Until the Index closes above 100.27, the RSI suggests that price action will continue to favor the downside.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bulls Retain Control Above Key Fibonacci Support
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview After a strong bounce from the 1.3274 swing low, GBP/USD is consolidating near 1.3456. The bullish structure is further strengthened by the GBP/USD pair trading above the 50-EMA and 100-EMA, which are presently at 1.3409 and 1.3392, respectively.
Currently, price action is maintaining a bullish structure as it is above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at 1.3452. Price action above there opens the possibility of a move higher toward 1.3506, with a break above opening up 1.3559. Price action below there opens the possibility of a move toward 1.3418, then 1.3390, and finally 1.3363. Losing any of these levels would be a negative development for the current bullish structure.
RSI is near 58, indicating positive momentum without overbought conditions. While the pair may consolidate after its recent rally, holding above 1.3418 keeps the broader bias tilted to the upside.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Bullish Recovery Faces Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is currently trading around 1.1534, from where a significant bullish momentum pushed price to the 50 day MA, and now it is trading in a portion of the resistance zone at 1.1510-1.1559. Currently, price is also testing the lower boundary of the descending trendline from early 2026.
1.1559 will be the next level of resistance, and after that 1.1622 and 1.1668 will be next. Bulls will eventually need to overcome the trendline to confirm a bullish reversal, which would then create a path to the 1.1703 level. The lower boundary of the resistance zone is at 1.1510, followed by 1.1474 and then the strong level of support at 1.1439.
The bullish momentum has been confirmed by the RSI, which has recently broken above 60. As long as the price is trading above.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlights that EUR/USD firmed to 1.1529, with short‑term momentum turning slightly higher. They see scope for the Euro to edge up but doubt an intraday break of 1.1565, with 1.1545 as nearer resistance and 1.1515/1.1500 as supports. On a 1–3 week horizon, a close above 1.1565 could open 1.1600, while 1.1470 remains strong support.
Upside bias constrained by resistance"24-HOUR VIEW: When EUR was at 1.1510 in the early Asian trade yesterday, we indicated that “the current price movements appear to be part of a consolidation phase between 1.1485 and 1.1540.” EUR then traded within a narrow range of 1.1501/1.1534 before settling at 1.1529 (+0.19%). There has been a slight uptick in upward momentum, and EUR may edge higher today. Given the mild upward momentum, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1565. Note that there is another resistance level at 1.1545. Support is at 1.1515; a breach of 1.1500 would mean that the current mild upward pressure has faded."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: EUR rose sharply and closed higher by 1.41% last week. On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated the following: “The rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565. Should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Our view remains unchanged. Overall, only a breach of 1.1470 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1455) would indicate that EUR is unlikely to test 1.1565."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
BoJ stance and domestic dynamicsThe BoJ maintained its policy rate at 1.00% via an 8-1 vote during its Jul 31 meeting while upgrading its economic outlook. The central bank signaled its intention to continue rate hikes, warning that core inflation might overshoot its 2% target in the near term. Nevertheless, the broader economic outlook remains bright, underpinned by solid labor market dynamics and robust wage growth.
The BoJ projects 2026 real GDP growth at 0.6%. Meanwhile, officials revised headline inflation forecasts downward from 2.8% to 2.5%, largely reflecting the impact of government subsidies. Currently, inflation figures show signs of re-acceleration as energy price declines moderate and select subsidies expire, aligning inflation metrics more closely with underlying market realities. Consequently, the BoJ retains sufficient momentum to proceed with policy normalization, driving interest rates back into positive territory over the long term to maintain price stability and permanently extricate the economy from protracted deflation.
However, financial markets recently perceived the BoJ’s pace of two rate hikes per year as overly gradual, insufficient to curb cost-push inflationary pressures in a timely manner. This skepticism is visibly reflected in the bond market, where the 30-year JGB yield surged to around 4%, hitting a 30-year high. This repricing underscores market anxieties that inflation might spike abruptly rather than stabilizing near the BoJ’s target. This dynamic stands as a primary catalyst pushing the US dollar - yen pair upward toward historical lows for the yen. Despite three direct market interventions by the Ministry of Finance this year, yen rapidly resumed its downward trajectory following each episode.
US macro environment and yield differentialsOn the counter side, US dollar strength has acted as a major tailwind for the pair’s upside. The US-Japan 30-year sovereign yield spread widened sharply back to 2.83% by late July, driven by lingering market expectations of further Fed rate hikes this year, even after the Fed held the target rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% at its latest meeting.
Although US CPI moderated to 3.5% YoY in June, re-escalating Middle Eastern tensions spillovers into the Red Sea added another layer of supply-side pressure on global oil markets. Disruptions threaten key transit routes, including pipeline shipments of approximately 7 mln barrels per day from Saudi Arabia through the Red Sea. Consequently, crude oil prices remain elevated around 90 USD/bbl, compared to over 60 USD/bbl prior to the conflict and 70 USD/bbl following the June US-Iran ceasefire agreement.
The oil price variable poses a significant latent risk for an inflation rebound. Combined with resilient US consumer spending, inflationary pressures might prove structurally sticky. Although 2Q US GDP growth missed expectations at 1.5% YoY, a granular breakdown reveals robust personal consumption growth at 3.2% YoY, complemented by aggressive capital expenditure driven by AI infrastructure demand. Earnings guidance from Big Tech points to sustained, heavy capital allocation toward AI and cloud infrastructure through this year and next, positioning business investment as a primary GDP growth engine.
Accordingly, despite the Fed holding rates steady in July, the US 30-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007. This suggests the market remains deeply concerned about persistent US inflation, viewing the Fed's current stance and communication as insufficiently hawkish, thereby pricing in a higher likelihood of stricter monetary tightening ahead.
Market drivers and outlookIn summary, JPY faces dual-directional pressure:US dynamics: Hawkish market expectations regarding Fed monetary policy.BoJ dynamics: Perceived policy inertia by the BoJ, triggering market disappointment and JPY depreciation.These combined forces continue to widen Treasury-JGB yield spreads, fueling Yen carry trades and driving further JPY depreciation.
A pullback in US Dollar - Yen would require a pivot in either force. For instance, a softer-than-expected upcoming US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report might dial back US inflation expectations, weighing on the US dollar and offering relief to the yen. Conversely, increasingly hawkish communications from BoJ officials advocating for earlier rate hikes would provide structural support for the yen from the domestic side.
Technical analysisUSDJPY retested its ascending trendline and key support at 158.50 before staging a rebound, exhibiting mean-reversion behavior following a sharp sell-off. EMA contraction points to a temporary consolidation phase within the 158.50 – 160.70 range.
Bullish scenario: A decisive breakout above resistance at 160.70 might confirm trend continuation toward the next key resistance barrier at 163.60.
Bearish scenario: A failure to hold above 158.50 would risk breaking the long-term uptrend, exposing the pair to a deeper retracement toward secondary support around 156.50.
AUD/USD moves little after registering over 0.5% gains in the previous day, trading around 0.7050 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the pair is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bullish bias.
The AUD/USD pair holds a constructive near-term bullish bias as spot remains above both the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the 50-period EMA, keeping the recent recovery underpinned.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 59, pointing to firm but not extreme bullish momentum, while the elevated FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 145.80 suggests policy-related headlines could continue to inject volatility into the trend.
The AUD/USD pair may rise toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.7120. A sustained break above the channel would strengthen the bullish bias and lead the pair to explore the region around 0.7277, the highest since June 2022, recorded on May 6.
On the downside, the initial support rests at the nine-day EMA of 0.7013, closely backed by the 50-day EMA at 0.7007 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 0.7000. A breach below this channel could trigger a bearish turn, driving the AUD/USD pair toward its March 30 six-month low of 0.6833.
AUD/USD: Daily ChartAussie extends rebound but UOB flags stiff resistance near 0.7075Strategists at UOB Group note that the Aussie has staged a stronger-than-expected comeback after its recent slide. They recall that after AUD “retreated sharply to a low of 0.6984 two days ago,” they had expected that “the sharp retreat appears to be overdone, and instead of continuing to decline today, AUD is more likely to trade in a range between 0.6980 and 0.7030.” Instead, the currency “rose to a high of 0.7049 before closing on a firm note at 0.7047 (+0.67%),” with UOB highlighting that “upward momentum is building, and AUD could continue to rise today.”
However, they caution that, based on the prevailing momentum, “any advance is unlikely to break above the major resistance at 0.7075 (there is another resistance level at 0.7060).” On the downside, UOB stresses that “to sustain the build-up in momentum, AUD must not break below 0.7020, with minor support at 0.7030.”
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.05%-0.04%-0.05%0.09%-0.05%0.36%-0.12%EUR0.05%0.00%-0.02%0.13%-0.01%0.40%-0.08%GBP0.04%-0.00%-0.02%0.12%-0.02%0.41%-0.08%JPY0.05%0.02%0.02%0.14%0.00%0.41%-0.07%CAD-0.09%-0.13%-0.12%-0.14%-0.14%0.30%-0.20%AUD0.05%0.01%0.02%-0.00%0.14%0.41%-0.06%NZD-0.36%-0.40%-0.41%-0.41%-0.30%-0.41%-0.47%CHF0.12%0.08%0.08%0.07%0.20%0.06%0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
This preview of weekly data examines USOIL and XAUUSD, with economic data expected later this week as the primary market drivers of the near-term outlook.
Highlights of the week: US services PMI and job report, Canadian unemploymentWednesdayUS Services PMI at 14:00 GMT where the consensus is for an increase from 54 points to 54.5. This might be rather bullish news for the Dollar since it would mean that the services sector in the States is still expanding given that the actual figure will also be above the 50 point mark.
ThursdayAustralian Balance of trade at 13:30 GMT where the expectations are for an increase reaching A$1.1 billion in trade deficit. This might not have a significant effect on the Aussie Dollar since the data are for the month of June and might already have been priced in.
FridayChinese Balance of trade at 03:00 AM GMT where the figure for July is expected to decrease from $125.62 Billion to $108 Billion. If this is broadly accurate then it might create some losses for the currency in the immediate aftermath of the release.
Canadian unemployment rate at 12:30 GMT. The market is expecting the figure to remain stable at 6.5% for July. However, any significant deviation from the expected figure will most likely create volatility on all loonie pairs.
US Job report at 12:30 GMT where the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate are going to be published. The expectation for the NFP is for a slight increase to reach 83,000 against the previous recording of 57,000. If these expectations are correct, the dollar could move up in various pairs in the aftermath of the release. On the other hand, the unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4.2% to 4.3%.
USOil, daily
Oil prices fell after US President Donald Trump said new talks with Iran would begin following his decision to cancel a planned military strike, easing concerns over further escalation in the Middle East. The decline reflected reduced geopolitical risk, although prices are unlikely to remain lower without an agreement that restores normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets remain cautious after a reported explosion near a tanker off Oman highlighted ongoing risks to maritime trade. Meanwhile, OPEC+ approved another modest production increase, while Gulf producers continued seeking alternative export routes to reduce reliance on vulnerable shipping lanes.
From a technical perspective, crude oil has come under renewed selling pressure after failing to sustain its rally above $90, with price retreating toward the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $79.30, which is acting as immediate support. The decline has pushed price back around the 50-day SMA, while it remains below the 100-day SMA, keeping the broader outlook tilted to the downside. The Stochastic oscillator has fallen into oversold territory, suggesting bearish momentum may be fading and increasing the likelihood of a short-term rebound. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands have started to narrow after the recent surge in volatility, indicating that price swings may begin to moderate. A sustained break below $79.30 could expose the 61.8% Fibonacci support at $76.60, while a recovery above the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $82 would improve the near-term technical outlook.
Gold-Dollar, daily
Gold edged higher after US President Donald Trump announced fresh talks with Iran, boosting hopes for a diplomatic resolution that could ease energy-driven inflation pressures. The precious metal also found support following last week's Federal Reserve meeting, although rising bond yields and expectations that interest rates may stay higher for longer continued to limit gains. Investors remain focused on developments in the Middle East and the Fed's policy outlook, with analysts expecting geopolitical progress to be the key driver of gold's next move.
From a technical point of view, gold continues to trade below both the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, keeping the broader trend tilted to the downside. However, price action has stabilised over the past few weeks, with gold consolidating between the $4,000 support and $4,200 resistance levels. The Bollinger Bands have narrowed, reflecting lower volatility and hinting that a breakout may be approaching. Meanwhile, the Stochastic oscillator is moving around the midpoint, indicating balanced momentum and the absence of a clear directional bias. A decisive break above $4,200 could pave the way for a recovery toward the 100-day SMA, while a drop below $4,000 would likely reinforce the prevailing bearish trend.
