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The Yen gave back some of its recent advance that was triggered by US and Japanese intervention.
As we see over the chart, we could see wide range of trading, first between 155.00 and the resistance of 158.05, as the market demands a rebound.
As long as the market remains below 160.85, the drop scenario could return.
When the Bank of Japan began the Intervention, the peak was around 163.97 which could sustain as resistance.
If the Yen retreats again, traders could expect another Intervention.
SUPPORT RESISTANCE LEVEL1 155.00 158.05 LEVEL2 152.10-30 160.85 LEVEL3 145.00 163.80 Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Gold managed to break the triangle formation above 4166 where managed to rally yesterday toward target 4200-20 while managed to add more advance 4300
As we see over the chart, market facing support zone at 4200-20 where as long as market holding trades above it another advance toward 4330 and above will be expected
Below 4200 more drop to test 4150-60 may hit the market which in turn may activate the advance again
Head of Technical Analysis at Orbex, Rami Abu Draa
holds a bachelor's degree in Banking, Finance and Economics. A professional trader and mentor with over 10 years of industry experience, Rami is passionate about sharing his knowledge with Orbex clients from basic to advanced concepts of Technical Analysis, Investment psychology and Investment/Trading methodologies. He is able to combine fundamental and technical principles to deliver a unique perspective on the markets that enables Orbex traders to identify high-probability trading opportunities.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates its recent gains on Thursday after briefly climbing above $4,300 as the US Dollar (USD) steadies while traders await confirmation of a possible Iran-Oman agreement on the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,270, up 0.53% on the day.
The precious metal rallied a little over 4% on Wednesday, hitting its highest level in seven weeks after Iran said it had reached an understanding with Oman on a proposed shipping route through the Strait. Tehran added that a joint statement containing the main points of the agreement was in the final stages of drafting.
Oil prices stay under pressure, creating a supportive backdrop for bullion. A sustained decline in energy prices would ease inflation concerns and reduce pressure on major central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve (Fed), to raise interest rates. Higher borrowing costs generally weigh on Gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal.
Despite the recent decline, Oil prices still carry a significant geopolitical risk premium as tensions in the Middle East persist. Iran says the proposed agreement with Oman would establish only a temporary shipping route and would not amount to a full reopening of the Strait. Yemen’s Houthis also claim to have attacked two Saudi oil tankers, while Tehran denies holding talks with the United States, saying its discussions with Oman are strictly bilateral.
Against this backdrop, Gold struggles to extend its gains while inflation above the Fed’s 2% target keeps expectations of tighter monetary policy alive. Still, lower energy prices and softer US labour-market data have prompted traders to scale back bets on a September Fed rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see a 52.9% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) increase in September, down from 63.4% a week earlier.
Attention now turns to Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. According to TD Securities, July ADP employment data "surprised to the downside, moderating to 44k (TD: 50k, cons: 65k)." Analysts highlight that "both the monthly and weekly ADP data have moderated this summer after a strong start to the year," and they anticipate that "a similar trend is likely to occur with NFP job gains."
Technical analysis: Buyers regain control above 50-day SMA, $4,300 in focus
XAU/USD is recovering above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,157, but remains capped beneath the 100- and 200-day SMAs, keeping the broader tone neutral with a slight topside constraint.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61 on the daily chart leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator holds in positive territory with the line above the signal and an expanding positive histogram, which together suggest improving upside pressure despite the overhead moving-average barrier.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the horizontal level around $4,300, ahead of the 100-day SMA at $4,393, with the 200-day SMA at $4,493 acting as a more distant cap.
On the downside, immediate support is provided by the reclaimed 50-day SMA near $4,157, with a deeper structural floor at the prior horizontal support around $4,000, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge if a pullback develops.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%0.03%0.11%-0.11%0.25%0.12%0.31%EUR-0.08%-0.06%0.04%-0.18%0.13%0.05%0.23%GBP-0.03%0.06%0.09%-0.13%0.20%0.09%0.29%JPY-0.11%-0.04%-0.09%-0.22%0.13%0.02%0.22%CAD0.11%0.18%0.13%0.22%0.35%0.25%0.44%AUD-0.25%-0.13%-0.20%-0.13%-0.35%-0.09%0.09%NZD-0.12%-0.05%-0.09%-0.02%-0.25%0.09%0.22%CHF-0.31%-0.23%-0.29%-0.22%-0.44%-0.09%-0.22% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver price (XAG/USD) holds onto two-day gains at around $62.00 during the European trading session on Thursday. The white metal trades firmly amid hopes of a further decline in oil prices.
In the European trade, the WTI Oil price trades 0.9% higher at around $75, but is closer to its three-week low of $73.51 posted on Wednesday.
Lower oil prices keep global inflation expectations in check, a scenario that diminishes fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a case bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Brent holds below $80 as hopes build for US–Iran deal on Strait of HormuzAnalysts at ING highlight that "ICE Brent continues to trade below $80/bbl as the market pins its hopes on a deal between the United States (US) and Iran" that would "resume energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz." They note that Iran has "signalled progress toward this goal," having announced it has reached "an agreement with Oman on new shipping arrangements for the strait," with "a joint statement on the deal now being prepared," reinforcing market expectations of a potential easing in supply-route tensions.
Meanwhile, investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday. Investors will pay close attention to the official employment data, as its impact is likely to be significant on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate expectations, given than the central bank has stopped providing forward guidance.
ADP slowdown reinforces TD Securities view of moderating US job gainsAccording to TD Securities, July ADP employment data "surprised to the downside, moderating to 44k (TD: 50k, cons: 65k)," reinforcing their view that job growth is cooling after a strong start to the year. The bank stresses that it does "not put much weight on ADP when it comes to m/m moves in NFP," but notes that "the trend in the data is in line with what we are expecting." They highlight that "both the monthly and weekly ADP data have moderated this summer," and judge that "a similar trend is likely to occur with NFP job gains," consistent with their expectation of softer official payrolls prints ahead.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at around $61.85, holding a bullish near-term bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $59.43. The metal has reclaimed higher ground after its recent pullback, and the positioning over the short-term EMA suggests underlying demand remains in place.
Momentum, as reflected by the Relative Strength Index (14) at 55.71, stays in mildly positive territory, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand while avoiding overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 20-day EMA at $59.43, where a break would signal fading bullish pressure and force a return to the July 17 low at $54.77. Looking up, the July high at $63.28 is the key hurdle for the Silver price; above that, it could extend the advance towards the June 22 high at $67.17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold (XAU/USD) consolidates gains after appreciating nearly $200 this week, buoyed by lower US Treasury yields as traders dial down bets of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. The precious metal trades at $4,270 at the time of writing, after pulling back from $4,300 earlier on Thursday, with bulls aiming for mid-June highs in the $4,380 area.
Analysts at MUFG note that political interference is increasingly being priced into the Dollar. They highlight Wall Street Journal reporting that President Trump has spoken to Fed Chair Warsh “repeatedly” since he took over at the Fed, with “bursts” of calls “several times in a stretch of days, which, in their opinion, “will only reinforce the impression of greater political influence undermining Fed independence.”
Technical Analysis: Gold confirms a trend shift
XAU/USD trades at $4,230, holding gains after breaking above a descending triangle, which suggests that the precious metal is heading through a bullish reversal. Momentum indicators in 4-hour charts show overstretched conditions, but dips are likely to find buyers. Relative Strength Index (14) is entrenched in overbought territory around 77, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) gauge remains firmly positive, which warns about a corrective pause.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at session highs in the $4,300, ahead of the June 17 high, around $4,380. Further up, the early June highs,m above $4,500, would come into focus.
Bearish reversals, on the other hand, are likely to be tested at previous highs around $4,200 (June 22, July 6 highs) ahead of the broken trendline resistance, now around $4,130 and Monday's low, near $4,020.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) broadly unchanged on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $62.01 per troy ounce, broadly unchanged 0.06% from the $62.05 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 12.77% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.06 on Thursday, up from 68.46 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Pound-Dollar could extend its rally if Friday's US payrolls disappoint, while improving risk sentiment continues to weigh on the safe-haven US Dollar. The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened on Wednesday as softer US economic data and improving market sentiment reduced demand for the US Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3479, up approximately 0.2% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.34616 (+0.08%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.154449 (+0.11%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 157.69239 (-0.02%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) weakened as improving market sentiment reduced demand for the safe-haven currency.
Investor confidence improved amid growing optimism that the US, Iran and Oman were moving closer to an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with reports suggesting a deal could be announced within days.
The Greenback also came under additional pressure following another disappointing batch of US economic data.
The latest ADP employment report showed private-sector payrolls increased by just 44,000 in July, reinforcing expectations that Friday's non-farm payrolls report could also disappoint.
This was followed by a weaker-than-expected ISM services PMI, which suggested activity across the US services sector is beginning to lose momentum after a prolonged period of resilience.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) edged higher after revised business survey data pointed to stronger-than-expected activity across the UK economy.
S&P Global's final services PMI for July was revised above the preliminary estimate, confirming a solid rebound in Britain's dominant services sector after June's slowdown.
The stronger survey encouraged investors to believe a more resilient private sector could give the Bank of England greater flexibility to tighten monetary policy later this year if required.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Looming US Payrolls Report to Drive the Next Move? Looking ahead, trading in the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate may become increasingly subdued as investors await Friday's US non-farm payrolls report.
The employment figures are expected to play a crucial role in shaping Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
Another weak labour market report could further reduce expectations for a September rate hike and place additional pressure on the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, with little UK economic data scheduled before the weekend, Sterling is likely to take its lead from broader market sentiment, with an improving risk backdrop potentially offering further support.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold rose to 4,300 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. The metal has advanced nearly 6% since the start of the week, supported by a partial agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has weighed on oil prices and eased concerns over inflation and further rate hikes.
Iran and Oman agreed to establish a shipping corridor through the strait, raising expectations of a recovery in energy supplies from the Middle East. Against this backdrop, markets have scaled back expectations for Fed tightening, now pricing in only one rate hike before the end of the year, down from two a week ago.
Additional support for gold came from weak ADP employment data. In July, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs – the lowest since January and well below the 70,000 forecast – adding to signs of a cooling labour market and putting pressure on the dollar.
At the same time, Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook reiterated her readiness to support a rate hike if inflation does not slow, warning that the regulator may not be able to delay action for long to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Technical analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,102 USD level and, following an upside breakout, moved higher to 4,300 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A move lower towards 4,100 USD is expected next. The MACD indicator signals the early stages of bearish momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and turning downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market broke below the 4,272 USD level and moved lower to 4,244 USD, followed by a correction to 4,272 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around this level. A continuation of the downward move to 4,100 USD is expected. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGold has rallied for a fourth consecutive day, driven by a partial agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and weaker-than-expected US labour market data. The deal has weighed on oil prices and reduced inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back expectations for Fed tightening from two rate hikes to just one. Meanwhile, weak ADP employment data added to signs of a cooling US economy, weighing on the dollar. However, Fed official Lisa Cook’s hawkish comments served as a reminder that further tightening remains possible if inflation proves persistent. Technically, gold may see a pullback towards 4,100 USD in the near term, with further direction likely to depend on US economic data and geopolitical developments.
Gold rose to 4,300 USD per ounce on Thursday, marking its fourth consecutive session of gains. The metal has advanced nearly 6% since the start of the week, supported by a partial agreement to reopen shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has weighed on oil prices and eased concerns over inflation and further rate hikes.
Iran and Oman agreed to establish a shipping corridor through the strait, raising expectations of a recovery in energy supplies from the Middle East. Against this backdrop, markets have scaled back expectations for Fed tightening, now pricing in only one rate hike before the end of the year, down from two a week ago.
Additional support for gold came from weak ADP employment data. In July, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs – the lowest since January and well below the 70,000 forecast – adding to signs of a cooling labour market and putting pressure on the dollar.
At the same time, Federal Reserve official Lisa Cook reiterated her readiness to support a rate hike if inflation does not slow, warning that the regulator may not be able to delay action for long to bring inflation back to the 2% target.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,102 USD level and, following an upside breakout, moved higher to 4,300 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A move lower towards 4,100 USD is expected next. The MACD indicator signals the early stages of bearish momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and turning downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market broke below the 4,272 USD level and moved lower to 4,244 USD, followed by a correction to 4,272 USD. A wide consolidation range is forming around this level. A continuation of the downward move to 4,100 USD is expected. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion Gold has rallied for a fourth consecutive day, driven by a partial agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and weaker-than-expected US labour market data. The deal has weighed on oil prices and reduced inflation concerns, prompting markets to scale back expectations for Fed tightening from two rate hikes to just one. Meanwhile, weak ADP employment data added to signs of a cooling US economy, weighing on the dollar. However, Fed official Lisa Cook’s hawkish comments served as a reminder that further tightening remains possible if inflation proves persistent. Technically, gold may see a pullback towards 4,100 USD in the near term, with further direction likely to depend on US economic data and geopolitical developments.
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Gold’s bulls reawakenGold’s rally maybe have been the most sensational movement in the markets yesterday. The easing of market expectations for the Fed to tighten its monetary policy in combination with hopes for the Straits in Hormuz to reopen and a slight weakening of the USD in the FX market provided the necessary thrust for gold’s price to escape the inactivity last month’s inactivity. Should we see market worries for inflationary pressures in the US economy easing, given also Fed Chair Warsh’s mixed messaging, we may see gold’s price gaining further.
USD stabilises ahead of the US employment reportThe USD seems to stabilise ahead of the release of July’s US employment report tomorrow. Financial data releases were somewhat disappointing weighing, on the USD. The ADP national employment figure for July dropped more than expected, possibly negatively predisposing the markets for the NFP figure tomorrow. Furthermore, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI figure for July undershoot market expectations. On the contrary the Canadian Dollar was on the rise, with Loonie traders also preparing for the simultaneous release of Canada’s July employment data with the US employment data for the same month, tomorrow.
Mixed signals from US stock marketsUS equities sent mixed signals yesterday with S&P 500 and Nasdaq halting the rise, while Dow Jones’ bulls slowed down yet are still pushing to new record high levels. The tech sector remain in the epicenter of attention yet should the positive market sentiment be renewed, we may see the bullish tendencies restart across US equities. Also, the earnings season is still on and today we note Softbank’s and Airbnb’s reports.
Oil prices stabilise for nowOil prices tended to stabilise yesterday signalling some doubts about the prospects of a US-Iranian deal for the Straits of Hormuz. Reports note that the proposed deal, would allow Iran to control shipping entering the Straits, while US President Trump insisted that a deal is imminent. Further signs of a possible deal could weigh on oil prices even more, as market worries for the supply side of the oil market could be alleviated further.
Other highlights for todayToday we get Sweden’s preliminary CPI rates for July, Euro Zone’s and the UK’s Construction PMI figures also for July, Euro Zone’s retail sales for June, the US weekly initial jobless claims and the Czech Republic’s CNB interest rate decision. In tomorrow’s Asian session, we get Japan’s June Household spending and China’s July trade data, while San Francisco Fed President Daly speaks.
Charts to keep an eye outXAU/USD rallied yesterday breaking the 4205 (S1) resistance line, now turned to support. The upward movement was accompanied by an enhancement of the bullish market sentiment, given the rise of the RSI indicator, which allows us to adopt a bullish outlook for the precious metal’s price. Should the bulls maintain control as expected we may see the index aiming if not breaking the 4550 (R1) resistance level. Should the bears to take over, we may see gold’s price breaking the 4205 (S1) support line and continue lower aiming if not breaking the 3960 (S2) support level.
Nasdaq hit a ceiling at the 29675 (R1) resistance line yesterday and correcting slightly lower during today’s Asian session. The RSI remains just above the reading of 50 implying a bullish predisposition of the market for the index. Given that the index has interrupted its upward movement, we adopt a sideways motion bias for now, yet warn of a possible renewal of the index’s bullish tendencies. Should the bulls take over, Nasdaq may break the 29675 (R1) resistance level and start aiming for the 30770 (R2) resistance level, which marks and all Time high for the index. Should the bears take over, we may see the index aiming if not breaking the 28200 (S1) support line.
The Euro (EUR) nudges lower against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday, following a three-day rally. The EUR/GBP remains capped below the late-July top of 0.8586, trading at 0.8575 at the time of writing, yet with downside attempts subdued so far.
Eurozone data was supportive on Thursday, as German Factory Orders beat expectations with a 3.1% increase in June, largely exceeding the 0.3% market forecast, and a downwardly revised 0.3% reading in May.
Regarding the Pound, FX strategists at Rabobank argue that “a re-pricing in policy expectations towards steady policy from the BoE this year combined with the prospect of nervousness ahead of the October budget suggests scope for downside pressure on the pound as the summer draws to a close.”
In this context, Rabobank continues to see value in the cross, stating that “we favour buying EUR/GBP on dips to the 0.8550 area,” and adding that “a break above the recent high in the 0.8588 region could increase upside potential.”
Technical Analysis: Failure to break 0.8586 might encourage bears
The technical picture shows the EUR/GBP pair trading at 0.8576, with momentum indicators highlighting weaker bullish traction. The Relative Strength Index (14) is trending towards the 50 midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers around zero, suggesting that bullish momentum is present but tentative.
Bulls need to break the mentioned 0.8586 resistance area level (July 29, 30 highs) to confirm the positive trend and target late June lows at the 0.8605 area. Failure to do so might give fresh hopes for bears to break the August 4 and 5 lows in the 0.8560-0.8565 area and aim for the July 31 low, near 0.8540, which will be the neckline of a double top pattern.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.8548, followed by additional underlying demand at 0.8529 and 0.8510, with deeper structural levels resting at 0.8419 and 0.8327. On the topside, initial resistance aligns at 0.8587, ahead of 0.8606; a sustained break above these caps would open the way toward 0.8730 and 0.8741, with higher hurdles at 0.8790 and 0.8863 likely to limit any extended advance.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.11%0.04%0.06%0.00%0.27%0.20%0.17%EUR-0.11%-0.06%-0.04%-0.10%0.15%0.10%0.06%GBP-0.04%0.06%0.02%-0.04%0.21%0.14%0.13%JPY-0.06%0.04%-0.02%-0.06%0.20%0.14%0.13%CAD-0.00%0.10%0.04%0.06%0.26%0.21%0.19%AUD-0.27%-0.15%-0.21%-0.20%-0.26%-0.05%-0.09%NZD-0.20%-0.10%-0.14%-0.14%-0.21%0.05%0.00%CHF-0.17%-0.06%-0.13%-0.13%-0.19%0.09%-0.01% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
OCBC’s Christopher Wong and Sim Moh Siong highlight a sharp rebound in Gold as easing Middle East tensions weighed on Oil and US Treasury yields, softening the US Dollar. Technical buying and short covering accelerated once resistance broke, while central bank demand from the Bank of Korea added support. Near-term momentum is mildly bullish, with key resistance at 4333 and 4393 and support at 4160 and 4077.
Gold breakout on softer yields"Gold rose sharply overnight as easing Middle East tensions drove oil prices lower while US Treasury yields and USD eased. Market expectations for Fed to hike in Sep has eased. About 55% probability priced (vs. 66% a week ago). The sharp move in gold accelerated after prices cleared recent resistance, triggering technical buying and short covering."
"Gold’s strength suggests investors are increasingly pricing a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, a normalisation of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a softer USD."
"News that the Bank of Korea is preparing to purchase domestically produced gold for the first time in 13 years and that they had recently begun buying gold ETF may also have provided a modest sentiment boost, although the scale and timing of its purchases remain unclear."
"Near-term momentum has improved, with Friday’s upcoming US payrolls report now key to whether the decline in yields, USD and gold’s breakout can be sustained."
"Daily momentum is mild bullish while RSI rose to near overbought conditions. Resistance at 4333 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4393 (100 DMA). Support at 4160 (50 DMA), 4077 (21 DMA)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The greenback fell further as traders continue to digest the ongoing peace negotiations in the Middle East.
The pair progressed lower, breaking through the 1.4050 level, ensuring that the bear run remained intact. A slide below the immediate support at 1.4000 could indicate more sellers trading the pair. 1.4080 is a critical top to break to develop a sharp turnaround, and move towards the recent top at 1.4120. NZDUSD looks for reprieve
The US dollar is attempting to gain some traction against the Kiwi as a choppy consolidation continues.
The pair previously met stiff selling pressure at the psychological level of 0.5900 as bulls closed some profits. However, more buyers could join the game as the RSI’s pressured condition could lead to a brief pullback. 0.5840 is an important support, and its breach could begin a decline in the medium-term to test 0.5780. UK 100(FTSE) continues chopping grind
The UK 100(FTSE), along with most global equities, found relief in sustained signs of peace deals.
The index remains heightened as energy prices are expected to fall further. A combination of short-covering and buying-the-dips has helped the price recover some lost ground. The first real test comes at the recent false spike towards 11000, and a bullish breakout would attract those who are still indecisive. Otherwise, the index could fall back towards 10840 and lower.
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Key Points:Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the week's biggest catalyst for FX markets.Traders are closely watching labor market data for clues on the Fed's September policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing long-term trendline resistance after recent gains.GBP/USD remains above key moving averages but needs a break above $1.3507 to extend higher.DXY is testing major trendline support below 100.00, with payrolls likely to determine the next move.
US Dollar News: Payrolls Countdown and Global Central Banks Shape FX Outlook The U.S. dollar’s value continues to fluctuate in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final significant market mover before all the markets take another look at the Federal Reserve’s overall policy outlook. Focused on NFP, is the most derived initial assessment of the potential impact on U.S. labor markets. A positive U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, coupled with positive detailed U.S. labor market employment data, will reinforce the viewpoint that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodating monetary policy stance later this year. Based on the latest Reuters real-time reporting, markets are now primarily focused on U.S. labor market data after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
The U.S. dollar is stabilizing following Friday’s European Central Bank meeting in which it kept its main interest rate on overnight deposits at 2.25%, and repeated its data-dependent stance. Investors are now waiting on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales statistics, all of which will give insight into the potential for a recovery in domestic demand within eurozone countries, particularly in light of the first part of the year being subdued. In their recent meetings, various policymakers have continued to underline the fact that inflation is approaching the European Central Bank’s target of 2% and that further tightening of eurozone monetary policy appears to be warranted; although, at this juncture still may be upside risks to be concerned with.
Sterling is digesting last week’s Bank of England decision. Bank Rate was left at 3.75%. Investors are anxious to see what new data will show about the UK economy. In the lead up to this data, investors will be studying data related to labor market activity, consumer spending, and business activity, to get insight on whether easing inflation is sustainable without a sharper slowdown in growth. Alongside the collection of domestic indicators, early Friday’s U.S. payrolls report will remain the major driving force behind foreign exchange sentiment for the week ahead.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Dollar Index Tests Trendline Support Below 100.00 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues dropping, currently trading at 99.76. It has been harshly rejected by 101.52, and has dropped below the psychological 100.00 zone and is currently challenging a key ascending trendline that can be found at 99.42. The index currently sits below the 50-day EMA ($100.38) while just holding above the 100-day EMA ($99.92), reflecting diminishing bullish sentiments. RSI has fallen to 36, moving into oversold territory, indicating that downside price momentum is losing speed.
A decisive break below 99.42 would expose 98.91 and 98.27, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, if bears defend the trendline, the DXY could stage a recovery toward 100.36 and 100.82. For now, the larger bias remains cautiously bearish while the index trades below 100.00.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Consolidates After Strong Recovery Toward $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The GBP/USD is trading around $1.3459, holding within a consolidation range after rebounding sharply from $1.3274. The pair remains above both the 50-Day EMA ($1.3421) and the 100-Day EMA ($1.3400), suggesting the medium-term trend continues to favor buyers. Price is currently hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $1.3452, while RSI near 57 points to steady but moderating bullish momentum.
A breakout above $1.3507 would reinforce the bullish structure and expose $1.3559. On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.3417, followed by $1.3391 and $1.3363. Holding above the moving averages keeps the recovery intact, although a decisive move above $1.3507 is needed to confirm the next leg higher.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bulls Challenge Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD pair, on the other hand, has been trying to rebound from its July base, and has been able to move past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1501. For the time being, the EUR/USD pair is trying to test a key descending trendline near 1.1559, while trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA ($1.1490) and holding marginally beneath the 100-day EMA ($1.1543). RSI has strengthened to 62, confirming improving bullish momentum.
It must be noted, however, that the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.1500 level. A sustained break below this level would expose the crucial support zone at the 1.1470 level. The critical descending trendline comes into the picture at the 1.1450 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains comfortably above the critical descending trendline, around the 1.1450 level, the bias is expected to shift to a bullish bias for the pair.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD edged higher to 1.3469 after briefly touching 1.3486, with short-term momentum only slightly firmer. The pair is expected to trade in a higher 1.3445–1.3495 range rather than embark on a strong rally. Over 1–3 weeks, there is still limited scope for a move toward 1.3555 as long as support at 1.3410 holds.
Pound holds gains within tight band"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, we expected GBP to “consolidate between 1.3425 and 1.3470.” However, GBP edged higher to 1.3486 before closing slightly higher at 1.3469 (+0.12%). While upward momentum has picked up slightly, it is more likely to result in GBP trading within a higher range of 1.3445/1.3495 rather than signaling the start of a sustained advance."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), we indicated that “while strong momentum suggests further upside, it remains to be seen whether GBP can break and hold above the significant resistance at 1.3555.” Yesterday (05 Aug, spot at 1.3450), we indicated that “upward momentum has since eased, but as long as 1.3385 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) is not breached, there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555.” We continue to hold the same view, but we are revising the ‘strong support’ level to 1.3410 from 1.3385."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The USD/CHF pair attracts some buyers near the 0.8060 region on Thursday amid a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a two-day losing streak and trade around the 0.8080-0.8085 region during the first half of the European session, up nearly 0.15% for the day.
From a technical perspective, the move up along an upward-sloping channel points to a well-established bullish trend. Adding to this, the recent breakout above the 0.8000 psychological mark supports prospects for a further near-term appreciation of the USD/CHF pair. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits near a neutral 48.7, hinting at balanced momentum.
Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, which only mildly tempers the constructive tone. Nevertheless, the setup suggests room for further gains before encountering a more significant cap. The USD/CHF pair is placed closer to the middle of the structure, with overhead supply defined by the channel top at 0.8219,
A daily close above this level would signal an acceleration of the uptrend and open the way to fresh highs within the broader bullish channel environment. On the downside, initial demand is located at the channel bottom around 0.7936, where a break would expose deeper support at the prior structural base near 0.7692 and would weaken the current bullish narrative.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CHF daily chart
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.07%0.08%0.06%0.02%0.29%0.25%0.14%EUR-0.07%0.00%0.00%-0.05%0.19%0.19%0.07%GBP-0.08%-0.00%0.00%-0.05%0.19%0.17%0.08%JPY-0.06%0.00%0.00%-0.04%0.21%0.20%0.09%CAD-0.02%0.05%0.05%0.04%0.26%0.25%0.12%AUD-0.29%-0.19%-0.19%-0.21%-0.26%-0.00%-0.12%NZD-0.25%-0.19%-0.17%-0.20%-0.25%0.00%-0.08%CHF-0.14%-0.07%-0.08%-0.09%-0.12%0.12%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally lower at around 1.3460 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair is expected to trade sideways as investors await the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
US payrolls seen posting modest July gain as Deutsche Bank flags participation risksEconomists at Deutsche Bank expect Friday’s July payrolls report to show a further, if modest, improvement in hiring. They look for "employment growth of +65k, modestly above June’s +57k reading".
On the labor market’s slack, Deutsche Bank forecasts that "the unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 4.2%, although risks are skewed towards a rounding up to 4.3% if labor force participation rebounds after last month’s sharp decline." Wage and hours data are expected to be steady, with "average hourly earnings… expected to increase by +0.3% month-on-month, unchanged from June, while average hours worked are forecast to hold at 34.3 hours."
Investors will pay close attention to the US NFP data as it will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Ahead of the US NFP data for July, the ADP Employment Change data remained weaker-than-projected. On Wednesday, the ADP reported that the private sector created 44K jobs in July, fewer than estimates of 70K and the prior release of 98K.
Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades at around 1.3460, keeping a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3404, but struggles to achieve a decisive breakout of the downward-sloping border of the Volatility Contraction Pattern (VCP) at around 1.3471.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 57 shows constructive but not overextended momentum, suggesting scope for further gains as long as price stays supported on dips above the EMA.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the former trend line break price at 1.3471, and a decisive move above this barrier would open the way for a continuation of the recent upside. Looking up, the July 15 high at 1.3558 is the key hurdle. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 1.3404, followed by the July 28 low at 1.3274.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Nonfarm Payrolls FAQs Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.
Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.
Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.
Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.
Gold – Charta Gold is currently consolidating at around $4,254, having exploded higher during a strong bull rally that took XAU/USD over the descending trendline and the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $4,237. The Bulls pushed prices even closer to the recent swing high prices around $4,305, which confirmed strong Bullish momentum as XAU/USD continued its strong technical trend over the 50 EMA ($4,107) and the 100 EMA ($4,091).
But amid all that, a strong Bull trend has been very clearly established as RSI has climbed strong to over 71, confirming overbought conditions and a strong likelihood of short-term profit taking. Support is currently at $4,237, $4,196 and $4,162. Gold is expected to hold above the breakout zone in order to maintain the strong Bull trend, and if gold goes above
Silver (XAG/USD) Technical Analysis: Silver Retreats After Rally but Bulls Stay in Control Above $61.42
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Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates gains in the $61.70 area after being rejected ahead of $63.00. The pair is trimming gains on Thursday, after following a nearly 7% rally over the last two days, but downside attempts remain limited so far, as lower Oil prices and a weak US Dollar keep providing support.
US macroeconomic data released earlier this week has failed to impress, raising fears about a poor Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday and prompting traders to scale back hopes of a Federal Reserve rare hike in September. US Treasury yields have dropped, with the yield of the benchmark 10-year note shedding about 10 basis points from last week's highs, while the 2-year yield, closely related to monetary policy expectations 18 basis points below July's peak. Lower yields tend to drive investors towards the yieldless precious metals.
Technical Analysis: The immediate trend remains bullish while above $60.70
XAG/USD trades at $61.72, showing a corrective reaction, as the last two days' rally was looking overextended. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is pulling back from overbought levels but remains in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is above zero, all in all showing that buyers retain control.
The near-term bias remains bullish while above a previous resistance at the $60.70-$60.95 area, which capped bulls several times in July. Further down, Wednesday's low, at $59.40, might provide some support ahead of the weekly low, near $56.50.
On the upside, bulls are likely to struggle at July's peak, near $63.30. Further up, the next target is the June 22 high, just above $67.00.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Silver breakout above the June to August range is riding on fresh optimism over a potential US-Iran deal, though the move is not yet confirmed.
Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, breaks down the technical picture for silver and the geopolitical driver behind the move.
Hilal works through what a sustained hold above former resistance would take to confirm the breakout, and where silver could find support if the US-Iran talks break down. A longer six-month chart adds the other side of the story, where a shooting star pattern and a golden-ratio Fibonacci retracement mark a historic confluence zone.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.
The USD/JPY pair holds onto a three-day recovery move near 157.80 during the European trading session on Thursday. The pair recovers as the Japanese Yen (JPY) faced profit-booking after a juggernaut jump last week, following the United States (US)-Japan joint intervention to counter excessive volatility and disorderly movements in the Japanese yen in recent months.
Financial markets expect the Japanese currency won't be able to sustain US-Japan joint intervention-driven strength unless it gets boost from structural changes in the domestic economy.
Yen positioning stabilizes as BoJ follow-through seen key to renewed inflowsAnalysts at BNY Mellon argue that recent “coordinated intervention has bought time but hasn’t materially increased foreign JPY holdings.” They note that “investors remain net long JPY, but exposure is well below H1 2026 levels and won’t rebuild without credible domestic follow-through: Bank of Japan (BOJ) tightening, fiscal consolidation and structural reform.” In their view, the current allocation picture is uneven across asset classes, with “Japanese equities remain largely passive and under-supported, while Japanese government bonds (JGBs) are attracting the clearest marginal demand.”
Meanwhile, hopes of US-Japan intervention again are high, as Japan Finance Minister (FM) Satsuki Katayama confirmed earlier this week that Japan “won't hesitate to carry out more forex intervention with the US”.
On the US Dollar (USD) front, investors shift their focus to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
USD/JPY trades at around157.83, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot remains below the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 160.55. The pair has retreated from recent highs, and the EMA overhead suggests prices are still capped despite the latest bounce attempt, pointing to a market that is correcting rather than trending higher.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at 160.55, which acts as the primary barrier that bulls would need to reclaim to alleviate downside pressure. On the downside, the key support level for the pair is the two-month low of 155.23; below this, the pair would find next support near the February 23 low at around 154.00
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD extended modest gains to close at 1.1551, with mild upward momentum still intact. Intraday, the pair may test 1.1565, though a move to 1.1600 is seen as unlikely without stronger momentum. On a 1–3 week horizon, a sustained rise requires a daily close above 1.1565 while holding above 1.1495 support.
Euro's grind higher faces key hurdles"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Tuesday’s price action, we noted yesterday that “there has been a slight uptick in upward momentum, and EUR may edge higher.” However, we pointed out that “given the mild upward momentum, any advance is unlikely to reach the major resistance at 1.1565.” We were not wrong, as EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 before settling at 1.1551 (+0.19%). The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view. On the downside, a breach of 1.1530 (minor support is at 1.1540) would mean that the current mild upward pressure has faded."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: On Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” While EUR edged to a high of 1.1559 yesterday, there has been no significant increase in upward momentum. In other words, EUR still must close above 1.1565 before further sustained rises can be expected. The odds of EUR closing above 1.1565 will remain intact as long as it holds above the ‘strong support’ at 1.1495 (level was at 1.1470 yesterday)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-New Zealand Dollar could extend its recovery if weaker New Zealand labour market data continues to dampen RBNZ rate expectations, although improving risk sentiment may support the Kiwi. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate rebounded from a two-month low on Wednesday after weaker-than-expected New Zealand employment figures weighed on the ‘Kiwi’.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading around NZ$2.2944, up approximately 0.5% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.289981 (0.00%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.963768 (+0.02%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.587895 (+0.09%)
DAILY RECAP:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) retreated during Wednesday's Asian session after weaker-than-expected labour market data prompted investors to reassess expectations for further Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) interest rate hikes.
Official figures showed New Zealand's unemployment rate climbed to 5.6% in the second quarter, its highest level in more than a decade and above forecasts for a rise to 5.4%.
The report also showed wage growth remained subdued, suggesting underlying domestic inflation pressures may be easing.
The figures came only weeks after stronger-than-expected inflation data had encouraged speculation that the RBNZ could continue tightening monetary policy.
However, the deterioration in employment conditions prompted investors to scale back some of those hawkish expectations, leaving the ‘Kiwi’ under pressure despite a broader improvement in risk appetite following renewed optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) strengthened following the publication of the UK's latest services PMI.
July's final reading was revised higher from the preliminary estimate, confirming the UK's dominant services sector rebounded strongly after June's slowdown.
The stronger survey reinforced expectations that the UK economy remains resilient, potentially allowing the Bank of England (BoE) to keep the option of further policy tightening on the table later in 2026.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Improving Risk Appetite to Underpin the Kiwi? Looking ahead, the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate may struggle to build on Wednesday's gains if market sentiment continues to improve.
Any agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could encourage investors back into risk-sensitive assets and help the New Zealand Dollar recover.
Conversely, renewed geopolitical tensions or fresh US threats towards Iran could weigh on risk appetite and provide further support for GBP/NZD.
With little UK economic data scheduled through the remainder of the week, Sterling may struggle to establish a strong independent direction.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The AUD/USD pair edges lower during the Asian session on Thursday and moves away from the highest level since June 17, touched the previous day. Spot prices currently trade just below 0.7050, though the downside potential seems limited.
Despite optimism over a potential US-Iran deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction and snaps a two-day losing streak as bears await further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting some pressure on the AUD/USD pair. Any meaningful decline, however, seems elusive ahead of China's Trade Balance data and the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
From a technical perspective, spot prices struggle to capitalize on the previous day's move beyond the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and fail ahead of the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-June decline. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stays modestly positive. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index near 58 suggests constructive momentum without entering overbought conditions, hinting that dips could still attract buyers.
That said, traders might wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 50% level at 0.7070 before positioning for further gains. Against the backdrop of the recent bounce from the very important 200-day SMA, the breakout would expose the 61.8% level at 0.7120 and then the 78.6% retracement at 0.7191, ahead of the cycle high region near 0.7281.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.7020, with further demand emerging at the 23.6% level at 0.6958 and the 200-day SMA around 0.6920. A deeper slide toward the 0.6859 anchor would significantly weaken the current constructive tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,315.11 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,284.74 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 96,986.33 per tola from PHP 96,631.53 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,315.11
10 Grams
83,151.54
Tola
96,986.33
Troy Ounce
258,628.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 182.10 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is maintaining a bearish near-term bias as it holds beneath both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
The EUR/JPY cross is retreating from recent highs and remains capped by these overlapping EMA barriers, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 37 suggests persistent but not extreme downside momentum after the latest pullback.
The EUR/JPY cross may retest the initial support at the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3. Further support lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the nine-day EMA at 183.16, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.71. Further advances above these moving averages would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
Eurozone resilience tempers calls for fresh ECB tighteningStrategists at BNY Mellon highlight that recent data show “growth defies gloom,” with Europe’s latest PMIs generally surprising to the upside and pushing back against immediate stagflation fears. They argue that while this resilience is clearly welcome, it is “not a clean invitation for the ECB to tighten again,” warning that “another hike risks turning a nascent recovery into a policy-induced slowdown” for the Eurozone economy and regional assets.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.07%0.00%0.02%0.16%0.13%0.03%EUR-0.05%0.01%-0.02%-0.03%0.09%0.09%-0.02%GBP-0.07%-0.01%-0.04%-0.02%0.08%0.06%-0.02%JPY0.00%0.02%0.04%0.02%0.14%0.13%0.05%CAD-0.02%0.03%0.02%-0.02%0.13%0.12%0.03%AUD-0.16%-0.09%-0.08%-0.14%-0.13%-0.00%-0.11%NZD-0.13%-0.09%-0.06%-0.13%-0.12%0.00%-0.06%CHF-0.03%0.02%0.02%-0.05%-0.03%0.11%0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 514.84 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 512.89 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,004.95 per tola from SAR 5,982.25 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
514.84
10 Grams
5,148.35
Tola
6,004.95
Troy Ounce
16,012.76
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 502.92 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 501.53 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,866.34 per tola from AED 5,849.72 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
502.92
10 Grams
5,029.55
Tola
5,866.34
Troy Ounce
15,642.81
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 37,958.86 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 37,862.81 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 442,748.80 per tola from PKR 441,624.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
37,958.86
10 Grams
379,593.00
Tola
442,748.80
Troy Ounce
1,180,667.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 560.01 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 558.23 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,531.79 per tola from MYR 6,511.07 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
560.01
10 Grams
5,600.05
Tola
6,531.79
Troy Ounce
17,418.14
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,024.38 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 12,991.59 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 151,914.00 per tola from INR 151,531.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,024.38
10 Grams
130,238.40
Tola
151,914.00
Troy Ounce
405,102.70
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) builds on the previous day's blowout rally of over 4% and advances for the fourth straight session, rising to its highest level since June 18 during the Asian session on Thursday. Hopes of a potential US-Iran peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz dragged crude oil prices to an over three-week low on Wednesday. Iran said on Wednesday that it is in the final stage of drafting an agreement with Oman over the strategic waterway, which could help bring an end to the five-month-old US-Iran war. This eased inflation fears and forced traders to scale back their bets for a more aggressive tightening by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). The outlook keeps US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD) depressed, and is seen supporting the bullion.
Adding to this, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday that private-sector employment in the US grew by 40K in July, marking a notable slowdown from the 95K in the prior month and missing consensus estimates. Separately, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed the Services PMI improved a tad to 54.1 in July from 54.0 in the previous month, coming in below expectations for a reading of 54.5. Following the softer data, the probability for a September Fed rate hike eased to roughly 55% from 67%, which continues to undermine the Greenback and acts as a tailwind for the non-yielding Gold. That said, a slew of prominent Fed officials recently warned that persistent inflation risks could necessitate further interest rate hikes.
Fed Governor Lisa Cook stated that inflation remains too high and she is prepared to act by raising interest rates if disinflation stalls, warning that the central bank cannot afford to wait indefinitely if price pressures fail to ease. Meanwhile, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that officials need more data before the September meeting to see if inflation is temporary or lasting. Nevertheless, traders are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year amid inflation risks stemming from supply disruptions through the Red Sea. In fact, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen said that they had launched a missile attack on a Saudi oil tanker off the coast of the port city of Yanbu and another in the Gulf of Aden.
This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and helps limit the downside in crude oil prices. Moreover, USD bears seem hesitant and opt to wait for the release of the closely-watched US monthly employment details – popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday – for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. In the meantime, Thursday's US economic docket features the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, which, along with comments from influential FOMC members, will drive the USD demand. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis could infuse volatility in the global financial markets, which could further provide some impetus to the buck and produce short-term trading opportunities around Gold.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical Analysis: Gold bulls now await move beyond 23.6% Fibo. before placing fresh betsThe overnight strong move up beyond the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for the first time since March 17, was seen as a fresh trigger for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, a firming Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at 29.52 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.28 hint at improving bullish momentum. However, it will still be prudent to wait for some follow-through buying beyond the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-June downfall before positioning for any further gains.
The precious metal might then aim to challenge the $4,500 psychological mark – representing the 200-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo. level confluence. Higher up, the 50.0%, 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at $4,678.89, $4,853.49 and $5,102.07 respectively outline subsequent bullish objectives if the current band is cleared. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 50-day SMA at $4,157.24, while a deeper setback would likely look toward the Fibonacci cycle low area near $3,939.05 as a more substantial structural floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 111.15 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. A coordinated currency intervention by the United States (US) and Japan provides some support to the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Traders remain on high alert for further intervention from Japanese authorities. Japan's Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said earlier this week that officials will not hesitate to take further action on currency.
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Minutes on Wednesday showed that policymakers debated mounting price risks that likely required more rate hikes even as they raised borrowing costs to a 31-year high in the June policy meeting.
Australia posted a surprise trade surplus in June as commodity exports gained, the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed on Thursday. Exports rose by 9.6% MoM in June from a fall of 7.6% seen a month earlier (revised from 6.9%). Meanwhile, Imports decreased by 0.2% MoM in June, compared to an increase of 0.9% seen in May (revised from 2.6%).
Fx market braces for further Japan intervention as Dollar strategy evolvesSociete Generale strategists caution that, in the context of recent US-Japan coordination on the Yen, history offers a clear warning: “a single round of intervention is unlikely to be sufficient to turn the trend around, and the FX market is on high alert for the next move.” This underscores their view that the latest action is best seen as one step in a broader, ongoing strategy rather than a definitive turning point for JPY.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY maintains a bearish tone on the daily chartIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY keeps a bearish near-term bias as the pair holds beneath the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger middle band. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 38.81 remains below the neutral 50 line, suggesting subdued but not oversold momentum after the recent slide.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around 112.80, followed closely by the Bollinger middle band at 112.90, forming a tight cap that would need to be reclaimed to ease downside pressure. Any follow-throght above this level could pave the way to the July 27 high of 114.67, en route to the upper Bollinger band higher up near 115.65 as a more distant barrier.
On the downside, the lower Bollinger band at 110.15 offers the next notable support. A decisive break beneath this floor could expose the 100.00 psychological level, followed by the August 3 low of 109.24.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
TL;DR: Gold’s rebound has technical and macro confirmation behind it, but whether it extends toward 4,500 depends on three interlinked markets — Brent crude, US Treasury yields, and Fed rate expectations — all still hinging on whether Strait of Hormuz negotiations produce a durable breakthrough.
A Rally That Looks More Convincing Than a Routine Bounce Gold’s rebound has evolved into something more convincing than a routine recovery from oversold conditions. The metal has broken back above its 55-day EMA, the daily MACD has developed bullish divergence, and — perhaps most importantly — markets have rapidly priced out the likelihood of a September Federal Reserve rate hike. Those developments have materially strengthened the case that Gold is attempting a medium-term trend reversal rather than simply retracing part of its decline from the record high.
Yet declaring victory now would be premature. The macro backdrop driving the rally still hinges on one unresolved question: whether optimism surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz develops into a durable geopolitical breakthrough. Until that question is answered, Gold, Brent crude, and US Treasury yields are likely to remain tightly linked, with all three acting as real-time gauges of market confidence in the same underlying narrative.
The Fed Story Has Already Changed The immediate catalyst behind Gold’s latest advance has been a sharp shift in interest-rate expectations rather than a sudden surge in safe-haven demand.
Over the past several sessions, investors have increasingly concluded that easing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz could significantly reduce the risk of another energy-driven inflation shock. As Brent crude retreated from above $100 toward the high-$70s, markets rapidly repriced the Fed outlook. The probability of rates remaining unchanged in September has risen sharply, Treasury yields have rolled over from recent highs, and the Dollar has weakened accordingly — together creating a much more supportive environment for non-yielding assets like Gold.
Technically, the improvement is becoming difficult to ignore. Breaking back above the 55-day EMA after forming bullish divergence on the daily MACD suggests downside momentum has been exhausted. Unlike previous rebounds during the decline from the record high, this rally is now receiving confirmation from both technical indicators and a meaningful improvement in the macro backdrop.
Markets Still Aren’t Fully Buying the Hormuz Story Yet markets are stopping short of fully embracing the optimistic scenario. Headlines continue to suggest negotiations are making progress — Iranian officials confirmed that Tehran and Oman have agreed on the geographical coordinates of a proposed safe shipping route, and reports have indicated negotiations are advancing, with some regional officials suggesting an agreement could come within days.
But the details remain far less reassuring than the headlines imply. Iran continues to describe the discussions as arrangements with Oman rather than direct negotiations with Washington. Reuters reported important issues remain unresolved despite President Donald Trump’s repeated suggestions a deal is close, while CNN quoted Gulf officials assigning only a 50-50 probability that an agreement can be reached by Friday. More importantly, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — the organization ultimately responsible for enforcing any agreement — has yet to publicly endorse the proposal.
Just as important is what happens after any agreement is signed. Whether the arrangement proves durable or merely another temporary pause remains an unanswered question, and that uncertainty continues to prevent markets from fully removing the geopolitical risk premium.
Why Brent and Treasury Yields Hold the Key That uncertainty is visible not only in Gold, but also in Brent crude and the US Treasury market.
Brent’s decline has already stalled after reaching the 61.8% projection of 102.00 to 80.67 from 91.36, at 78.18, suggesting sellers are becoming more cautious. A decisive break below that level would indicate traders are increasingly convinced a Hormuz agreement is both imminent and sustainable, opening the way toward the 100% projection at 70.03, close to the 70.14 low.
Conversely, a breakdown in talks and a return to conflict could bring a strong rebound in Brent. A decisive break of the 55 4H EMA, now at 84.48, would argue the fall from 102.00 has completed as a correction, setting up another strong rally back toward 102.00.
Treasury yields tell a similar story. The US 10-year yield has begun showing bearish divergence on the 4H MACD after topping around 4.75%. A firm break below 4.60%, together with the 55 4H EMA, would confirm markets are becoming increasingly comfortable with the view that lower energy prices will keep the Fed on hold.
Failure to break that support, however, would indicate investors remain unconvinced inflation risks have truly subsided — a strong rebound from 4.60% would keep the near-term rally intact for another rise through 4.75%.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold Gold itself has reached an important technical crossroads. The rally is now close to the 38.2% retracement of 4,889.24 to 3,942.23, at 4,303.98, while the four-hour RSI is already in overbought territory. That combination argues for some consolidation, or even a modest pullback, rather than an immediate continuation higher.
The broader picture, however, has improved substantially. If a credible and durable Hormuz agreement emerges, Brent breaking below 78 and the 10-year Treasury yield falling through 4.60% would provide the macro confirmation Gold bulls have been waiting for. In that environment, the current recovery would likely extend beyond 4,300 toward the medium-term trendline resistance near 4,500, strengthening the case that a genuine trend reversal is underway.
On the other hand, if negotiations falter and geopolitical tensions re-escalate, the recent improvement in Fed expectations could quickly unwind. A break back below 4,166.08, now acting as support, would suggest the latest rally was merely another corrective rebound within the broader downtrend from 4,889.24.
For now, Gold’s technicals are sending an increasingly bullish message — but the final verdict still rests with oil, Treasury yields, and the next chapter of the Hormuz negotiations.
Key Takeaways Gold’s rally has both technical confirmation (55-day EMA reclaim, bullish MACD divergence) and macro support (fading September Fed hike odds), distinguishing it from prior failed rebounds. Gulf officials assign only a 50-50 probability of a Hormuz agreement by Friday, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps has yet to endorse any proposal, keeping a geopolitical risk premium intact. Brent’s decline has stalled at 78.18; a break below opens 70.03, while a break of 84.48 resistance would instead point to a rebound back toward 102.00. The 10-year Treasury yield breaking below 4.60% would confirm markets are comfortable with a Fed on hold; failure to break it risks a rebound toward 4.75%. A durable Hormuz deal with Brent below 78 and yields below 4.60% could extend Gold’s rally toward 4,500; a break below 4,166.08 would instead signal the rally was only corrective.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Lower-than-expected ADP Employment leads the Dollar Index to slip. Watch crucial support near 99.50, which needs to hold to keep the upside view intact. The index could be volatile this week with the US jobless claims data release today and NFP tomorrow. Euro can attempt to test 1.16 while USDJPY can take a breather and remain stable. EURJPY can rise towards 184 while Aussie and Pound can see a near-term rise towards 0.71 and 1.35 before pausing for a reversal. USDCNY holds below 6.75 and could slowly head towards 6.70 while USDINR needs to decisively break below 95 to open a downside target of 94.75/50 else can see bounce from current levels towards 95.25/50 again.
The US Treasury Yields are managing to hold above their key support. A strong bounce is needed from here to avoid an extended fall and also to resume the uptrend from here itself. We will have to wait and watch. The German Yields are hovering above their support. We expect them to bounce back from here and resume their uptrend. The 10Yr GoI has declined below its key support. A further fall from here will confirm the resumption of the broader downtrend and drag it lower. The RBI kept their policy rates unchanged at 5.25% in its meeting yesterday.
Dow can extend its rally towards 55000-55500, while DAX remains bullish above 26000 with scope to rise towards 27000-27500. Nifty continues to hold above the key 24500 support and can advance towards 24800-25000. Nikkei has resumed its upward momentum and can rise further towards 67000-68000. Shanghai is approaching the key 3900 resistance, with a sustained break opening the way towards 4000-4050.
Brent and WTI remain vulnerable to further declines towards $75-$70 and $70-$65 respectively. Gold has turned bullish after breaking above its previous range and can rise further towards $4500. Silver has also strengthened and can extend its gains towards $65-$70. Copper remains constructive and needs a sustained break above $6.80 to continue its rally towards $6.85-$6.90; otherwise, a pullback towards $6.60-$6.50 is possible. Natural Gas remains weak and can decline towards $2.65 in the near term.
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Gold is extending the previous big breakout, briefly testing the $4,300 level for the first time in seven weeks in the Asian session on Thursday.
Gold cheers Strait of Hormuz reopening hopesNothing seems to have changed fundamentally for Gold since a day ago, as hopes for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are coming to life after Iran said on Wednesday that it is close to finalizing a proposed framework for commercial shipping through the Strait with Omar, per The Guardian.
The optimism around the reopening of the vital waterway in the Gulf eases supply disruption concerns and keeps Oil prices mired in three-week lows.
Weakening Oil prices alleviate inflation worries, prompting markets to scale back their bets on a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.
Markets are pricing in a roughly 55% chance that the Fed will raise rates in September, down from about 60% a day ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
That’s exactly what is weighing on the US Dollar (USD), while boosting non-yielding assets such as Gold.
Earlier on, Fed's Daly delivered a moderately cautious message, with a FXS Speechtracker score of 5.4/10, slightly softer relative to the historical average of 5.6/10. Daly highlighted that tariffs had a clear impact on inflation but now show signs of fading, while technology investment is currently adding upward pressure, and supply shocks are seen as largely temporary with longer-run inflation expectations still well anchored but not to be taken for granted. The tone leans toward balanced risk management, supportive of holding rates steady while emphasizing data dependence and the evolving mix of supply-side forces.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 2.23 points to 138.69, signaling a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. Despite the decline, the index remains firmly in hawkish territory above 100, indicating that markets still see the Fed as biased toward tighter policy even as the tone cools slightly compared to recent communications.
Further, disappointing US ADP jobs and headline ISM Services PMI data continue to undermine the USD and Fed rate hike odds, keeping Gold price upside going strong.
The ADP said on Wednesday that US private sector employment increased by 44,000 jobs in July, against a growth of 70,000 jobs expected. Meanwhile, the ISM Services PMI came in at 54.1 in July, but missed the forecast of 54.5.
Looking ahead, all eyes will remain on the Middle East developments, especially after Israel launched attacks in southern Lebanon after accusing Hezbollah of violating the ceasefire.
The Mideast situation remains fragile also after Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi rebels said they targeted a Saudi oil tanker in the Red Sea as part of their naval blockade of Saudi Arabia.
If the Gulf conflict re-escalates, hampering the Strait of Hormuz reopening deal, Gold could see a steep correction toward the $4,150 demand area.
However, the daily technical setup suggests that more upside remains in the offing, as traders brace for Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,274.80. The metal holds a bullish near-term bias as it trades above the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,078.38 and $4,157.48, while the 100-day SMA at $4,393.96 and the 200-day SMA at $4,493.07 still loom overhead as medium-term caps. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.94 shows firm positive momentum, hinting that buyers retain control though conditions are edging toward overbought territory.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA near $4,394, followed by the 200-day SMA around $4,493, where a break would open the way for a stronger extension of the bullish trend. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent price pivot around $4,275, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $4,157 and the 21-day SMA near $4,078; a deeper slide could revisit the rising trend-line support drawn from $3,951, where buyers would be expected to re-emerge.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold positioning shifts as TD Securities flags renewed macro supportAccording to TD Securities, "macro headwinds being pushed out on the horizon, along with US-Iran deal hope, have put some major wind in the precious metals sails." Strategists at the bank note that, when "decomposing managed money gold positions," macro discretionary funds "have more than doubled their positions since June," acting as consistent dip buyers and "protecting the $4000/oz level." TD Securities adds that "the momentum generated from these cohorts' renewed appetite is now forcing CTAs to turn heavy buyers, exaggerating the move to the upside," as systematic accounts are drawn into the rally by the improving trend in positioning.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Euro (EUR) trades broadly firm at around 1.1555 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair reflects strength as the US Dollar is broadly under pressure due to deteriorating United States (US) employment conditions.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, holds onto two-day losses at around 99.65.
On Wednesday, the ADP reported the fresh addition of 44K payrolls in the private sector in July, lower than estimates of 70K and the prior release of 98K.
For more cues regarding the US labor market, investors await the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which will be released on Friday.
According to TD Securities, July’s jobs report is expected to show only a slight improvement after June’s downside surprise. The bank’s economists look for "July NFP [to have] picked up modestly to 70k after surprising to the downside with 57k in June," and judge that "risks to our payrolls forecast appear balanced." They also anticipate that the unemployment rate will show little change, with "the UE rate likely [having] went sideways at 4.2% after declining in June," reinforcing their view of a broadly stable labor market backdrop.
On the Euro front, investors await the Eurozone Retail Sales data for June, which will be published at 09:00 GMT.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD holds onto week-long recovery at around 1.1554. The pair strives a decisive break above the downward resistance trend line’s break level at 1.1538, turning it into an immediate pivot and reinforcing a constructive bias while it holds over this reclaimed barrier. Price also stands above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1472, suggesting dip-buying interest dominates as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 stays in bullish territory but shy of overbought conditions.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the former trend-line break near 1.1538, with deeper demand expected around the 20-period EMA at 1.1472 if a pullback extends. The pair could return to the July low at 1.1353 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA.
Looking up, the pair needs to stabilize above the downward-sloping trendline to extend the advance towards 1.1600, followed by the May 29 high at 1.1686.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ADP Employment Change The ADP Employment Change is a gauge of employment in the private sector released by the largest payroll processor in the US, Automatic Data Processing Inc. It measures the change in the number of people privately employed in the US. Generally speaking, a rise in the indicator has positive implications for consumer spending and is stimulative of economic growth. So a high reading is traditionally seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
Last release: Wed Aug 05, 2026 12:15
Frequency: Monthly
Actual: 44K
Consensus: 70K
Previous: 98K
Source: ADP Research Institute
Traders often consider employment figures from ADP, America’s largest payrolls provider, report as the harbinger of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Nonfarm Payrolls (usually published two days later), because of the correlation between the two. The overlaying of both series is quite high, but on individual months, the discrepancy can be substantial. Another reason FX traders follow this report is the same as with the NFP – a persistent vigorous growth in employment figures increases inflationary pressures, and with it, the likelihood that the Fed will raise interest rates. Actual figures beating consensus tend to be USD bullish.
Gold started a fresh increase above the $4,200 region. It surpassed a major contracting triangle with resistance at $4,090 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil started a fresh decline and traded below $80.00. Bitcoin gained bullish momentum for a move above $64,200. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold found bids near $4,020 and $4,050 against the US Dollar. The price started a decent increase after there was a close above $4,100.
The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price surpassed a major contracting triangle with resistance at $4,090. There was a close above $4,150, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).
The price traded as high as $4,304 and is currently consolidating gains. On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,300. The next major resistance might be $4,350.
A clear move above $4,350 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,420 or even $4,450. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,500 level.
If there is a downside correction, the price could revisit the $4,230 support or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,995 swing low to the $4,304 high. The first major support sits at $4,185.
The next support could be $4,150, below which the price might slide to $4,110. The main support sits at $4,065. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,020 or even $4,000 in the coming days.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the bears are back, and they could aim for a move below the $75.00 support zone in the near term.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 202K, versus 197K previous. US Wholesale Inventories for June 2026 (preliminary) – Forecast +0.3%, versus +0.3% previous.
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Silver price (XAG/USD) remains stronger for the fourth consecutive day, trading around $62.20 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Thursday. The price of the non-yielding Silver gains momentum as news of a deal to partially reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, significantly easing broader market concerns surrounding inflation and the outlook for interest rates.
The shift comes as Iran and Oman reached an agreement on a temporary shipping route through the strategic waterway, boosting global expectations for increased Middle Eastern energy flows. A joint statement from both nations is currently in its final drafting stages. While the proposed route is slated to operate for two to four months, Tehran made it clear that this arrangement does not represent a complete reopening of the strait.
Oil timespreads underscore speculative pressure rather than weaker fundamentalsAccording to TD Securities, the current structure of the oil market suggests that recent price moves are being driven more by positioning than by any material shift in underlying supply-demand dynamics. Strategists there highlight that “this time around, timespreads remain much stronger, which is the clearest signal that spec flows chasing headlines are doing the heavy lifting as opposed to any loosening of the fundamentals.” In their view, the resilience of timespreads reinforces the message from physical flows that the crude market remains fundamentally tight, even as headline risk and speculative activity exert outsized influence on day-to-day price action.
Meanwhile, economic data in the US added to the market dynamics. ADP figures released on Wednesday revealed that US private-sector employment grew by just 44,000 jobs in July, a sharp deceleration from the 98,000 added in June that fell well short of the 70,000-market consensus. With labor market cooling in focus, traders are now closely watching Thursday’s US Initial Jobless Claims and Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
Fed’s Cook flags inflation risks but keeps rate hike option conditionalFed’s Cook speech scores 7.2/10 on the FXS Speechtracker, modestly above the 6.5/10 historical average, signaling a slightly more forceful tone relative to the established baseline. The remarks balance recognition of a sturdy job market and resilient expansion with a clear emphasis that inflation threats surpass job market concerns, underscoring a firm commitment to restoring price stability while keeping rate hikes conditional on the disinflation trend failing to reappear. Overall, the message leans hawkish on inflation risks but stops short of pre-committing to imminent tightening, which is supportive for the Dollar and broadly cautious for risk-sensitive assets.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index fell by 1.93 points to 140.92, indicating a modest pullback in perceived hawkishness following the speech. Despite the decline, the index remains well above the neutral 100 threshold, showing that Fed communication is still firmly in hawkish territory even as the immediate tightening impulse eases slightly according to the FXS Fed Sentiment Index and FXS Speechtracker.
Technical Analysis: XAG/USD gains amid prevailing bullish biasXAG/USD trades around $62.20. is holding a near-term bullish bias as it advances above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $59.76 while still trading below the 50-day EMA at $62.69, which caps the topside for now. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.81 leans constructive, suggesting firm positive momentum, while the FXS Fed Sentiment Index at 140.92 hints that broader macro sentiment remains supportive rather than euphoric.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 50-day EMA at $62.69; a clear daily close above this barrier would open the door toward the next structural hurdles at $90.03 and $96.62, though these latter levels remain distant in the current trading context. On the downside, initial support is seen at the nine-day EMA at $59.76, ahead of the horizontal floor at $55.63.
XAG/USD: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.7895 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7889 and 6.7462 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
EUR/USD breaks long-running downtrend resistance Fed rate hike pricing pares back to 42bp by June 2027 Lower energy prices improve euro area outlook Payrolls, peace negotiations to determine whether breakout has legs EUR/USD has broken higher after spending much of this year trapped beneath downtrend resistance. Whether it sinks or swims will likely be determined by the incoming flow of US economic data and developments in the Gulf.
The stars align... for now One of the key factors that's changed over the past week has been the US rate outlook. While the latest US data has generally continued to point to an economy that's holding up well, markets have become a little less convinced about how much further the Federal Reserve will need to tighten.
Both the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs outperformed expectations, while strength in the new orders components of both surveys points to the US economy continuing to chug along into the second half of the year.
Despite that, markets have pared back the amount of tightening priced by the June Fed meeting next year to around 42 basis points. Correlation analysis suggests EUR/USD has been tracking shifts in front-end US rates closely over the past week, helping to explain some of the move higher.
Source: TradingView
The other factor that's worked in the euro's favour has been the optimism that we'll eventually see some form of lasting peace deal in the Middle East. Whether that eventuates remains highly uncertain, but markets have responded by pushing energy prices lower once again.
That's important because Europe is a major net energy importer. Compared with the United States, which enjoys far greater energy security as the world's largest producer, lower oil and gas prices are a much bigger positive for the euro area economy. They reduce one of the key headwinds that has weighed on the common currency in recent months, easing the need for the ECB to respond aggressively to a supply-driven inflation shock that would otherwise have amplified the downside risks to economic activity.
Another factor that's probably helped the euro has been the intervention episode in Japan. It's highly unusual to see the US Treasury get involved in supporting another currency when we're not talking about a financial crisis or disorderly market conditions.
Why the US decided to get involved remains unclear. Whether it was about the yen, foreign demand for Treasuries, US FX competitiveness, or something else entirely, we simply don't know. What we do know is that it's put the US dollar on the back foot, providing a near-term tailwind for EUR/USD.
Clearly, the positives that have helped the euro not only come across as being very short-term factors, but there's also a lot of uncertainty as to whether they'll stick.
From a directional perspective for the euro, a lot of it will come down to the Gulf and Friday's US payrolls report, which really looms as the key factor given its ability to shift the Fed rate outlook.
EUR/USD breakout shifts focus higher
Source: TradingView
Turning to the charts, we saw a breakout from the minor downtrend that had been in place from the highs set back in the middle of July following last week's Fed meeting. That has since seen the pair extend the move, breaking above resistance at 1.1480 and the 50-day moving average to test the long-running downtrend that's been in place since late January.
After one false break on Monday that saw the pair retrace to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January to June bear move, we're now seeing a bounce and a close above that downtrend, creating the potential for a run higher.
1.1550 is an important level in the near term, marking where the pair stalled on Monday. If we manage to hold above that level, it opens the door to a test of the 100-day moving average. It has a much more chequered history in terms of influencing price action than the 50- and 200-day moving averages, but a push beyond it would put the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the January to June bear move, and more importantly, the 200-day moving average, into focus.
A break above the latter would be significant given the way price has interacted with it in the past, creating the potential for a much larger bullish move.
Of course, if the pair fails to build on the breakout and retraces back beneath the trendline, it would add to the sense that bears remain in the ascendency. That would bring the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January to June bear move, along with the confluence of former resistance at 1.1480 and the 50-day moving average, back into play. A break beneath that zone would point to a much larger unwind towards the July lows.
The oscillators favour the breakout sticking. RSI (14) continues to set higher lows and higher highs while moving further away from the neutral 50 level, but is not yet overbought. That message is confirmed by MACD, which has flipped positive and continues to diverge further away from the signal line, building upside momentum. It's not a screaming buy signal by any stretch, but it does favour buying dips and bullish breakouts rather than trying to play it from the short side in the near term.
Gold price (XAU/USD) rises to near $4,255 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal extends the rally, marking its biggest daily jump since February, as optimism over a potential deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz eases energy-driven inflation fears and reduces the odds of the Federal Reserve (Fed) raising interest rates.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said on Wednesday that a deal with Oman on a route through the Strait of Hormuz is being “finalised”, but the US and Israel still pose a danger to ships in the vital waterway.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump claimed a deal could be reached on Wednesday, with continued diplomatic efforts potentially paving the way for US-Iran talks to resume. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, both of whom said progress had been made in those talks.
Reports of a potential interim agreement to clear and reopen the critical water could ease inflation fears and reduce expectations for aggressive Fed interest rate hikes. This, in turn, could boost the yellow metal in the near term.
Traders will closely monitor the release of the US July employment report, which is due later on Friday. This report could offer some hints about the health of the labour market and US interest rate path. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) to rise by 80,000 in July, while the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4.2% during the same period. In case of stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.
Gold underpinned as easing oil prices pull US yields lowerAnalysts at Commerzbank highlight that the latest leg of support for Gold came as “US Treasury yields fell across the curve as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns,” helping to reinforce the metal’s recovery alongside the broader risk-on tone.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped below the key 100-day SMA in daily chartIn the daily chart, XAU/USD has pushed back above the 20-day simple moving average (SMA) component of the Bollinger Bands, shifting the near-term tone to neutral with a slight bullish tilt, yet broader gains remain capped while price holds beneath the 100-day SMA resistance. The Bollinger upper band now aligns as immediate support after being reclaimed, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 60.95 shows firm but not overextended upside momentum, hinting that buyers still have some room before facing overbought conditions.
On the topside, a sustained break above the 100-day SMA around $4,400 would be needed to expose higher bullish targets and signal a clearer continuation of the up-leg. On the downside, initial support is now seen around the recently reclaimed Bollinger upper band near $4,185, followed by the Bollinger middle band / 20-day SMA region around $4,070; a loss of this area would likely invite a deeper retreat toward the lower Bollinger band support near $3,950.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Spot gold weekly chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Next Resistance Levels Come Into View Initial upside target zone is near trend structure at $4,382 and the 100-day moving average, which is now at $4,398 and falling. That zone is followed by the more significant 200-day moving average near $4,493. Technically, the long-term outlook improves if gold gets above and stays above that long-term trend indicator.
A Narrowing Range Sets the Stage As recent consolidation evolved, the price range continued to narrow, setting the stage for a sharp breakout as demand builds. Also, the low for Wednesday at $4,065 was a clear test of support prior to the acceleration in momentum. That makes Wednesday only the second day since April where the full range of the session was above that average. This is bullish behavior that is not uncommon prior to a strong breakout.
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Japanese Yen, USD/JPY Talking Points: It’s rare to see a Treasury Secretary so vocal about a currency value, but it’s become obvious that Scott Bessent does not want USD/JPY to rise significantly, and there’s likely multiple reasons behind that. While one person’s opinion may not be enough to reverse the interest rate dynamics in two of the world’s largest economies, it could produce a challenge for near-term price action, as a theoretical cap to price could create a compelling reason for longs to bail on positions, particularly if US data worsens in the weeks ahead. In this article, I want to draw attention to a similar situation in Q4 of 2022, when BoJ intervention stalled a rally for about a month, until US data started to dim and that drove longs to quickly close positions, resulting in a 50% retracement of the prior trend.
Merely for a point of reference, it’s uncomfortable how much of the crowd seems to remain bullish in USD/JPY. This is anecdotal, of course, and observational so somewhat subjective, but putting all the pieces together seem to make the risk-reward potential in USD/JPY look askew to the upside.
At this point we’ve had loud proclamations from both the US side and the Japanese side on the matter, as both economies do not want to see USD/JPY appreciation. And while markets have often run against Japanese intervention, given the multiple episodes that we’ve seen particularly over the past five years, the history of coordinated intervention from both economies is far more sparse but significantly clearer.
I think it’s rather obvious why both the US and Japan would prefer if USD/JPY does not appreciate to another fresh 40-year high. For Japan, this invites inflationary potential and for the US, this would entail a stronger US Dollar which would be a hindrance for trade and capital flows given that the Yen is a 13.6% component of the DXY basket. I think, ideally, both economies would like to see a bit of stability in the exchange rate but that’s not something that market participants always welcome.
For this article, I wanted to draw a parallel to Q4 of 2022, when a similar scenario had set up before us. At that point, the US had just posed a series of blistering rate hikes while Japan rates stayed flat, thereby setting up the divergence that remains in place today. But, as we often look at in webinars, fundamentals aren’t a perfect push point for price as the only thing that actually impacts price action is buying and selling. And when a trade is increasingly crowded and even the slightest hint or whiff of change is on the horizon, prices can reverse quickly – even against the fundamental bias that should otherwise drive the market.
But when the BoJ intervened in October of 2022, it was to defend the 150.00 level in the USD/JPY pair. The actual high printed at 151.95 and it was a worrying scenario, as the Yen was in meltdown mode. The BoJ stepped in and the intervention stalled the rally, and, initially, drove a counter-trend move that stopped out several longs along the way.
Buyers were somewhat undeterred though as support simply played from the 145.00 handle and price bounced back-up, albeit in a more tepid fashion than it had broken out in the prior weeks.
But – the simple fact that the BoJ had theoretically capped the upside for the pair was enough to keep the market in a state of limbo for long enough until change could show on the horizon.
That change showed on the morning of November 10th, 2022, with a below-expected CPI report. To be clear – the prints were still massive, with Core CPI coming in at 6.3% and headline CPI at a whopping 7.1%. But – both data prints were below the expectation and reduction from the prior month’s prints.
Hurriedly, markets factored in this new information and longs that had held on through the initial intervention-fueled pullback bailed on the trade, leading to the start of a dizzying reversal that lasted for the next two months and drove the pair lower by almost 2,000 pips.
USD/JPY Daily Chart – September 2022 - 2023 Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Relevance to Current Day in USD/JPY At this point a similar dynamic exists as we had back in 2022, where there’s expectation for more US rate hikes while Japan sits at inflation levels below 2%. And we just saw a very loud and showy appearance from Scott Bessent regarding intervention.
Like I said in the weekend video, intervening with price around or below 155.00 makes little sense, but as price perks up that desire to tilt the flow of the market can similarly increase and that can provide that theoretical cap that I referred to earlier. Will policymakers stand by to allow USD/JPY to float back above 160 again? And even if they do tip-toe back above that line-in-the-sand, will markets be able to re-challenge that 164.00 level?
Regardless of the answer, the question must be considered when factoring in topside targets for the pair and at this point it seems aggressive to look for targets significantly above either of those levels, which can cap the projected upside on the long side of the pair.
And on the other hand, right now markets are holding on to a firm belief that the Fed will hike rates later this year. It’s still too early to say that they won’t as a flare in inflation will probably require that they do. But, going off of last week’s rate decision, it really seems as though Kevin Warsh wants to sound like an inflation hawk without actually being an inflation hawk. This, if course, would be an evolution in the Fed’s messaging which has for years used comments around rate policy to push around market trends.
This can leave USD/JPY in a vulnerable spot, where upside for longs has a cap, of some sort, while a worsening of data brings on even larger downside risk.
But, that’s not the market participant to consider, in my opinion. The one to keep in mind is the one that’s often most driven by those interest rate disparities, and that’s the actual carry traders that are borrowing in Japan while rates are extremely low and then investing elsewhere where rates are much higher. This can be considered as a form of arbitrage but it’s not truly risk free, even if investing in government bonds, and the reason is that loans in Japan are taken in Yen, and if the Japanese Yen depreciates, it can whittle away any potential profit in the spread and then some.
And these aren’t the type of market participants to just summarily dismiss something as clearly identifiable as currency risk. So, they’ll hedge that risk by selling JPY in the marketplace and buying another currency, like USD. This further adds pressure to the upside in USD/JPY spot rates and this is another reason things like overbought matter little when those rallies are running.
But this can work both ways, right? Because if a hedge fund has a trade on to offset that currency risk – and it’s clear that the move has largely topped-out as you have both economies literally telling you that they want prices to move down, well, it makes little sense to remain in that hedge for much longer, and that’s when the currency risk from the initial carry trade isn’t such a daunting prospect. And, potentially, some profit can be pocketed by closing the hedge at a gain and merely re-buying it later, down the road, to offset that currency risk again when the Japanese Yen isn’t so cheap.
This is one reason why USD/JPY bounced back so quickly in January of 2023, or December of 2023. Or, even in September of 2024 with the pair bottoming literally two days before the Federal Reserve cut rates by 50 basis points. The pair then went on to rally by 1800 pips over the next four months and, again, this is through an FOMC rate cut cycle. But – the fundamental divergence remained and there was a reason for carry traders to hedge that currency risk again.
USD/JPY Daily Chart - 2024 Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY Current Day At this point bulls aren’t entirely out of the matter yet and the current weekly bar, at just the half-way point of the week, is actually somewhat bullish given the reaction that we’ve seen above the 155.00 support zone. But – this matter is far from over and we’re now in a spot where US data is perhaps even more important, as a dimming in US data will likely entail a reduction in rate hike odds out of the US, and that, combined with a theoretical cap to upside in the pair can create a compelling reason for carry traders to release their hedges.
For now, we have resistance at a familiar spot – the same that topped the USD/JPY market after that 2024 rally. It’s difficult to get too bullish above 160.00, at this point, at least in my opinion, and that could cap the theoretical upside to the trade. While support can still remain attractive, at least for now, diminishing upside is something that, eventually, can lead to reversal scenarios as longs cut positions, particularly if US data softens to the point that rate hike probabilities get priced-down.
At this point, the four hour chart isn’t quite in a bearish spot and there’s actually a bullish formation in-place now with an ascending triangle. But if or when this starts to change, the contrarian view can grow in attraction.
USD/JPY Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly firmer versus the US Dollar (USD), with modestly better PMIs but a fading fundamental backdrop as 2-year spreads give back gains since late June. With limited data before the August 13 Q2 GDP release, they remain medium-term bullish, expecting GBP/USD to trade between 1.3420 and 1.3520 near term within a broader 1.31–1.35 range.
Sterling steady with medium-term bullish bias"The pound is entering Wednesday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% gain vs. the USD. The Final services and composite PMI’s for July saw fractional improvements while indicating marginal growth overall."
"The release calendar is limited over the next week or so with no major data scheduled ahead of the preliminary Q2 GDP print on August 13."
"The fundamental picture for the GBP looks to have faded since mid-July, with 2Y spreads relinquishing much of their recovery from late June."
"The options market offers some reassurance, likely reflecting a continued improvement in sentiment towards the UK’s political situation."
"Neutral/bullish—the RSI is slightly above the neutral threshold at 50 and looks to have found a more solid footing in the aftermath of last week’s gains."
"The local range remains bound between late June support in the mid1.31s and mid-July resistance in the mid-1.35s. We remain medium-term bulls and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3420 and 1.3520."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
U.S. dollar pulled back as traders focused on the weaker-than-expected ADP Employment Change report. The report showed that private businesses added 44,000 jobs in July, compared to analyst forecast of 70,000. Weaker dollar provided additional support to gold markets in today’s trading session.
Gold climbed above the resistance level at $4180 – $4200 and is trying to settle above the $4250 level. In case gold manages to settle above $4250, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the $4360 – $4380 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the support side, a move below the $4180 level will push gold back towards the strong support at $4020 – $4040.
Gold (XAU/USD) price surges to its highest level in nearly seven weeks, gaining nearly 3.80% on Wednesday as the Greenback loses ground and US Treasury yields fail to gain traction. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,232, its highest level since June 18, after bouncing off daily lows of $4,065.
Bullion clears $4,200 on USD weakness, soft ADP data and Hormuz deal hopesThe yellow metal strengthened sharply as it cleared the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,161, clearing on its way north the $4,200 mark. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, is down 0.12% at 99.76.
The US economic docket is busy this week, with traders eyeing the release of the July Nonfarm Payrolls figures on Friday. Economists expect job creation of 80K and the Unemployment Rate to remain steady at around 4.2%.
Earlier, the July ADP Employment Change report was weaker than anticipated, dropping from 98K to 44K, below the forecast of 70K. The data indicated that education and health services increased their workforce by 36K, whereas leisure and hospitality decreased by 11K.
At the same time, business activity in the services sector remained strong in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM Services PMI improved from 54 to 54.1, though it missed estimates by 0.4 points. The sub-components of employment and prices paid contracted and expanded, respectively. The Employment diffusion index dipped from 51.2 to 47.4, while the Prices Paid rose from 67.7 to 70.3, extending the trend to 110 months.
Fed Regional Bank Presidents remain hawkish amid a split FOMCMinneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) President Neel Kashkari stated that it is now appropriate to start gradually raising rates, emphasising moderate increases rather than dramatic hikes. Meanwhile, Jeffrey Schmid of the Kansas City Fed indicated that a strict monetary policy is necessary to address inflation considered "too high."
The de-escalation of the Gulf War is a tailwind for the non-yielding metal. Although crude prices are edging lower and easing inflationary pressures, investors remain skeptical of a positive outcome, as they expect a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve at the September meeting, according to Prime Terminal.
Source: Prime TerminalA report by N12, citing American officials, commented that the signing of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz would be possible as early as Wednesday.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold clears the latest cycle high, as market structure shifts neutralGold price has shifted to a neutral stance after the yellow metal surpassed the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,161, opening the door for further gains. Momentum has shifted bullishly, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), meaning that in the near term, the path of least resistance is upward.
XAU/USD’s first resistance is the $4,300 mark. Above lies the June 17 cycle high of $4,382, ahead of reaching the 100-day SMA at $4,499 near the psychological $4,500 mark.
On the flip side, the first support is the July 6 high, which turned into support at $4,202. A breach of the latter will expose the 50-day SMA, followed by the $4,100 mark. Beneath is the August 3 daily low of $4,019. Breaking that level could lead to a decline to $4,000.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
