Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

United Arab Emirates Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

Pakistan Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

Gold Price Forecast: Bull-bear tug-of-war extends for XAU/USD ahead of Trump-Xi meet

Gold edges lower on Fed-driven USD strength as markets await Trump-Xi meeting

Gold Price Forecast: $4,300 Support Faces a Test Gold Daily Chart: Triangle Holds Between $4,150 and $4,550 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs, between $4,300 and $4,530. The price has been consolidating within the triangle pattern. A break of this triangle is required to determine the next direction.

The support of the triangle now remains around $4,150 on the downside, while resistance is around $4,550 on the upside. Therefore, a break of either level will likely define the next move in the gold market. But the RSI remains below the midline, which shows negative price action in the short term. A confirmed break below $4,150 is required to push prices toward the $4,000 area.

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $66.50 as Fed signals further rate hikes

Gold recovers above $4,350 on US–Iran diplomacy hopes

The US dollar is delivering a mixed performance across FX majors, with USD/CHF retaining a strong bullish structure while momentum on USD/JPY begins to fade. CHF/JPY may provide an additional clue, as its countertrend rally approaches a resistance cluster that could favour renewed Swiss franc outperformance against the Japanese yen.

Mexican Peso carry cushion thins as USD/MXN breaks 100-day SMA

Silver trades the yield, not the deficit

Gold losses altitude as peace hopes meet hawkish Fed bets

$10,000 Gold: A question of when, not if

Why the peace tease isn't reaching Gold

We saw the same kind of “strength” at the 2012 corrective upswing. I’m measuring the character of the “strength” by applying the RSI indicator to the HUI (proxy for gold stocks) to gold ratio. As you can see on the above chart, the final parts of the post-top consolidation – the 2012 top and the recent one – were characterized by a quick spike in the ratio as well as the RSI indicator based on it.

So, no, this kind of “strength” doesn’t tell us that the decline is over. It tells us that history is rhyming, and the next verse doesn’t look pretty.

Where This Leaves Us My outlook and positions are unchanged, and the profit-take levels remain in place.

Oil is down 14 percent in five sessions on a peace that the administration has now dated to the far side of the election, stocks are a session from a record on the flag scenario I named yesterday, and gold got $30 of the whole move and is giving it back with the dollar above 100 for a third close.

The tape has spent a week removing the reason gold was meant to rise. Gold has spent the same week proving it never had it.

Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA

Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back as Euro Area Consumer Confidence missed analyst estimates. GBP/USD tested new lows as pullback continued. USD/JPY gained ground, supported by rising Treasury yields.

U.S. Dollar Tests New Highs

DXY 220926 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on Trump’s speech at UN General Assembly.  President Trump said that he could make a deal with Iran but would destroy the country in case Iran refused to make a deal.

Brent oil rebounded towards the $100.00 level as oil traders reacted to Trump’s words. The rebound in the oil market raised demand for safe-haven assets, providing support to the American currency.

Hawkish comments from Fed’s Collins provided additional support to U.S. dollar. She noted that she supported the rate hike and warned about inflation risks.

Currently, U.S. Dollar Index is trying to settle above the resistance level at 100.50 – 100.65. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 101.50 – 102.00 range.

EUR/USD Tests Support At 1.1420 – 1.1435

EUR/USD 220926 4h Chart EUR/USD tested new lows as traders focused on the Euro Area Consumer Confidence report. The report showed that Euro Area Consumer Confidence decreased from -15.5 in August to -16.5 in September, compared to analyst forecast of -16.

EUR/USD attempts to settle below the support at 1.1420 – 1.1435. If U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 1.1420 level, it will head towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.1335 – 1.1350 range.

GBP/USD Remains Under Pressure

GBP/USD 220926 4h Chart GBP/USD is under pressure as traders stay bearish amid geopolitical tensions and inflation worries. There are no important economic reports scheduled to be released in the UK today, so traders will stay focused on general market sentiment.

The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3285 – 1.3300 range. If GBP/USD declines below the 1.3285 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.3150 – 1.3165. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

EUR/USD Price Forecast

Every new EUR/USD analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all EUR/USD forecasts

USD/CAD Tests Resistance At 1.4065 – 1.4080

USD/CAD 220926 4h Chart USD/CAD continues to move higher amid lack of positive catalysts for the Canadian dollar. Other commodity-related currencies are mixed in today’s trading session.

From the technical point of view, USD/CAD attempts to settle above the resistance level at 1.4065 – 1.4080. If USD/CAD manages to settle above the 1.4080 level, it will move towards the next resistance, which is located in the 1.4135 – 1.4150 range.

USD/JPY Moves Higher As Treasury Yields Rise

USD/JPY 220926 4h Chart USD/JPY gains some ground as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed back above the 4.75% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.97%. I’d note that the yield of 30-year Treasuries moved above the important 5.30% level, so Bessent’s buybacks have so far failed to push yields lower.

The nearest resistance level for USD/JPY is located in the 158.00 – 158.50 range. A successful test of this level will open the way to the test of the next resistance at 160.00 – 160.50. The key question is whether BoJ is ready to intervene in case USD/JPY climbs above the psychologically important 160.00 level.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.

Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.

Latest news and analysis

Canadian Dollar: USD strength keeps CAD weakness in focus - Scotiabank

Gold remains trapped between $4,300 support and $4,500 resistance as the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, interest rates and inflation keep traders waiting.

Gold Technical Analysis

Daily price chart of Gold futures trading at $4,372.0 between its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Source: TradingView The gold market has chopped back and forth in the early hours here on Tuesday, as we are stuck between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators. That is something worth watching because, quite often, although not always, the market will squeeze out of that area. This market is currently waiting for some kind of reason to form a trend at this point in time.

Gold Is Still in the Middle of a Range Between $4,500 and $4,300 I think ultimately this is a market that will continue to obey those boundaries, at least until we get some type of certainty. Interest rates in America have drifted a little bit lower, so that does somewhat help gold. But ultimately, it’s probably worth noting that there are still a lot of concerns in the world with energy inflation.

That energy inflation, of course, is a major problem and a major contributor to how gold has been behaving. So, with this, I like the idea of buying gold on dips, selling it on rallies, and sticking to short-term charts because, quite frankly, I don’t know that it’s going to be an easy trade anytime soon.

With that being said, I remain fairly neutral on gold, but I do like it longer term, so that’s something that I keep in the back of my mind anytime I am trading this market. The gold market will continue to be moved by headlines, interest rates, and the US dollar. Gold continues to be attractive from a long-term perspective, but we still have many factors at play.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

Latest news and analysis

Stronger RBI reserves offer protection against abrupt Rupee losses, but MUFG expects depreciation pressure to persist into 2027. The Indian Rupee's recovery has left Goldman Sachs and MUFG's 2027 forecasts pointing to renewed losses, despite stronger central-bank defences.

Goldman forecasts 97 Rupees per Dollar in six and twelve months, while MUFG projects 96.00 for March 2027 and 96.50 for June.

The US Dollar to Rupee exchange rate (USD/INR) slipped to 95.6039 on Tuesday, down 0.11% after Monday's 0.29% decline, retreating from last week's levels above 96.

The nearer-term comparison is more restrained: Goldman's three-month forecast stands at 96, against MUFG's 95.50 for December 2026, which allows slight Rupee appreciation from today's rate.

RBI support limits the risk of a sudden fall MUFG says foreign-currency deposit inflows have strengthened the Reserve Bank of India's ability to manage volatility, but demand for Dollars persists:

"While the enlarged reserve buffer should contain disorderly moves, it does not remove the underlying demand for dollars from FDI repatriation and the strong IPO pipeline."

That includes foreign investors converting proceeds from Indian investments back into foreign currency.

"Consequently, the balance of risks still favours gradual INR depreciation rather than a sharp adjustment."

Image: USD to INR one-month chart The inflows also created excess Rupee liquidity when banks exchanged their Dollars with the RBI, complicating efforts to contain inflation.

MUFG expects tighter policy:

"We expect 50bp of RBI tightening, split between December 2026 and February 2027, with a risk of a larger 75bp cycle."

These depreciation forecasts contrast with Crédit Agricole's anticipated Rupee recovery in 2027.

Oil remains a key obstacle for import-dependent India, despite its retreat from last week's highs.

Brent traded near $101.64 earlier on Tuesday, leaving substantial energy-cost pressure in place alongside the higher US yields that MUFG identifies as another weight on the Rupee.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot gold is edging lower on Tuesday. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. Today’s early weakness made $4,399.67 a new main top. A trade through that level will change the main trend to up. A move through $4,235.17 will reaffirm the downtrend.

Standing in the way of the start of a clean break is a short-term 50% level at $4,319.60 and the 50-day moving average at $4,301.00. A break through the 50-day MA could trigger a sharp break into the support cluster formed by the main bottom at $4,235.17 and the 61.8% level at $4,230.51. The last level is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.

On the upside, the nearest resistance is a minor retracement zone at $4,384.59 to $4,405.59 and the swing top at $4,399.67.

My bias is to the downside because of the bearish trend indicator. It will strengthen if sellers can take out the 50-day MA.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts The Fed Raised Last Week and Two Officials Want Another One St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said more rate hikes may be needed to bring inflation under control. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is looking at the demand side. Service-sector inflation and data center construction are on his list. He is asking whether the economy is producing beyond what it can handle and the tone says he thinks the answer is yes.

The Fed moved the policy rate to 3.75%-4.00% last week, the first increase since 2023. Chairman Kevin Warsh said more increases may be needed in the coming months. December hike odds jumped to about 90% from 80% a week ago. That 10-point move tells you rate traders took Warsh at his word and Musalem and Goolsbee spent Tuesday reinforcing the message.

Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield The 10-year yield slipped to 4.931% Tuesday after testing the 4.922% level that held last week. It held again. The 4.809% breakout level is below. The 50-day at 4.734% is well below that.

The yield market stopped pushing higher after reaching 5.041% last week. It has not retreated. The pullback found buyers at 4.922% twice in a row and held both times. Gold is trading against a yield that paused near the highs without giving ground. That is enough to stop a deeper sell-off in the metal. It is not enough to start a rally. Tuesday’s session proved both of those statements by midday.

What to Watch The jobs data and Fed comments this week are the catalyst. December is priced at 90%. Musalem and Goolsbee spent Tuesday pushing the hike case harder. The data either keeps that number where it is or cracks it. Gold does not need a rate cut. It needs the next round of numbers to give the doves something Musalem and Goolsbee have not given them.

The UNGA sessions are the headline risk. Crude, the dollar, and gold all moved on the same unverified Kyodo report Tuesday morning. That chain runs both directions. The physical questions around Hormuz have not been answered. Tanker traffic, insurance costs, and refined product flows are what changes the supply story. A comment from an unnamed official is not that.

The trend is down with sellers sitting inside the resistance zone at the new main top. The moving average held on the first test and the rate trade is pausing near the highs without reversing. Whether this settles into a range between the average and the resistance or breaks lower depends on whether the data this week gives the December odds a reason to come down. Tuesday said not yet.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

Despite mounting geopolitical risks, crude oil prices have declined more than 10% from their monthly highs. Combined with overbought momentum readings on the DXY and dollar pairs, this increases the risk of a near-term reversal.

The DXY is also testing the lower boundary of its previous 2026 uptrend from below, creating a critical technical juncture.

The drawdown in crude may reflect market expectations of near-term resolutions, alongside increased Saudi Gulf exports following the disruption to the East-West pipeline. Related article: Crude Oil Weekly Outlook: Saudi–Houthi Escalation vs Key Resistance

This setup challenges hawkish Fed expectations for the October meeting, particularly if crude prices continue to decline below recent lows near $90 for WTI and $96 for Brent.

For USD/JPY, the divergence in central-bank guidance remains important. Hawkish Fed expectations, with rate-hike odds above 50% for October, contrast with expectations that the Bank of Japan may hold rates at its next meeting. This divergence continues to support the dollar against the yen unless broad-based dollar weakness emerges alongside a reversal in rate-hike expectations.

DXY Daily Time Frame — Log Scale

Source: TradingView

On the daily time frame, the DXY’s bullish rebound from the 98.50 support level—the 50% retracement of the 2026 advance—is currently retesting the 2026 uptrend from below near 100.50. However, daily momentum is becoming overbought, similar to readings observed near previous yearly highs.

A breakout above 100.50 would place the DXY back within the 2026 uptrend, targeting 101.00 and 101.80 before confirming new yearly highs. Such a move could extend pressure on precious metals and FX pairs facing a stronger dollar.

On the downside, a reversal below 100.00 would expose support at 99.30 and 98.50 once again, before confirming a potential return toward the yearly lows.

DXY Monthly Time Frame — Log Scale

Source: TradingView

Although a drawdown toward the yearly lows may appear significant, it would remain consistent with the boundaries of the uptrend established since 2008. The 95.00 area therefore represents a critical long-term level between a potential bearish structural shift in the dollar and bullish continuation.

This perspective also aligns the DXY with the midpoint of the declining channel established since 2022. A clean monthly close above 101.80 could open the door toward the channel’s upper boundary near 107.00.

USD/JPY Weekly Time Frame — Log Scale

Source: TradingView

From a weekly perspective, USD/JPY’s breakdown below the April 2025–July 2026 uptrend channel puts the latest decline into context. The pair is now approaching the lower boundary of the broader uptrend established since 2023.

This reinforces the short-term downside risk while maintaining a longer-term bullish outlook. That outlook would weaken if USD/JPY closes below 152.00 and 149.00, corresponding approximately to the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels of the 2025–2026 advance.

On the upside, sustained closes above the Fibonacci extension levels at 154.80 and 158.40 would expose resistance at 161.30. This would place the pair back within the year-long uptrend and potentially open the way toward yearly highs near 164.00, raising the possibility of decade highs and renewed pressure on the Bank of Japan and the yen.

Dollar resistance levels, alongside declining crude prices, remain key to establishing the final-quarter outlook as the U.S. midterm elections approach and geopolitical signals remain mixed.

A renewed rise in crude and Treasury yields above their September highs, combined with renewed dollar strength, would be required to confirm a re-escalation in geopolitical risk and a broader risk-off sentiment toward year-end.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

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Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD in limbo

Referenced assets

Key takeaways Trump–Xi may extend the trade truce, but firm tariff cuts and timelines are needed to prevent a sell-the-fact reversal.Rare-earth licences and AI-chip rules are the key swing factors for USD/CNH, Hong Kong 33 and the Nasdaq 100.AUD/USD is the cleaner China-growth trade, while the Singapore 30 provides lower-beta regional exposure. Look for yuan confirmation. President Trump will host President Xi in Washington on 24 September 2026. Markets are already leaning towards a constructive outcome, with US semiconductor stocks, Asian technology stocks, the yuan, and Hong Kong equities strengthening ahead of the meeting.

The catalysts for the current bullish tone have been “smoothing rhetoric” from US and Chinese officials ahead of the Trump-Xi summit meet-up.

Last weekend’s “warm-up meeting” between the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s top trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, was peppered with encouraging signs of engagement on Artificial Intelligence (AI), a key sensitive technological issue where both sides are now vying for a supremacy position in that will likely allow the leading country to reign over geopolitics, international finance and military affairs.

Bessent said both sides have agreed to create a “US-China AI dialogue” that is intended to develop a common understanding of the cutting-edge technology’s benefits and threats.

In addition, US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told media outlets that while the US remains divided on the terms of a US-China trade truce extension, with the current deadline set on 10 November 2026, but expressed optimism that Washington could support a further extension of three to six months.

This raises the hurdle for further gains: an extension of the existing truce may be treated as a “sell-the-fact” outcome unless it includes measurable commitments.

Five key highlights Duration and scope of the trade truce

The current truce expires on 10 November. The immediate question is whether it is extended for six months, one year or longer, and whether the extension prevents new tariffs and export controls.

Watch for progress on the proposed Board of Trade and reciprocal tariff reductions covering roughly US$30 billion of goods.

Rare-earth exports and critical-mineral licences

Washington wants more reliable flows of Chinese rare-earth magnets and critical minerals. China controls around 70% of global mining and more than 85% of refining and production, giving Beijing significant negotiating leverage.

A concrete licensing mechanism would be more market-positive than another general promise to maintain supplies.

AI chips and technology restrictions

The critical issue is whether the AI dialogue remains focused on safety or expands into semiconductor export licensing.

Any easing of access to advanced US chips would support semiconductor sentiment, while tighter controls or accusations of model theft would weigh on the Nasdaq 100 and chipmakers.

Soybeans, Boeing and measurable Chinese purchases

Markets will look for specific purchase volumes and implementation dates. Earlier commitments included additional US agricultural purchases and more than 200 Boeing aircraft, but several elements remain incomplete.

A headline without tonnage, dollar value or delivery schedules is unlikely to sustain a rally.

Taiwan and Iran are the geopolitical tail risks

Taiwan remains the most dangerous issue because a shift in US language or new arms-sale threats could overwhelm progress on trade.

China’s economic relationship with Iran is another potential source of friction. These issues matter because they could turn a commercially constructive summit into a broader strategic confrontation.

Top five tradeable assets Asset Constructive summit Disappointing summit Positioning ahead USD/CNH Falls as the yuan strengthens USD rises on renewed tariff risk The cleanest summit trade. The USD/CNH has been trading in a major downtrend since the 8 April 2025 high of 7.4294.   Bearish momentum accelerated via the breakdown below the 8 February 2023 low of 6.7740.   Now, it is trading near a 52-week low of 6.7000. If the 6.7477 key medium-term pivotal resistance level holds, the ongoing downtrend may target the next medium-term support levels at 6.6540 and 6.5836 (see Fig. 1). Hong Kong 33 Gains on tariff relief and lower China risk premium Vulnerable to profit-taking. The Hong Kong 33 has staged three consecutive sessions of rallies (+2.85%), with summit optimism already partly priced in.   Watch for any potential minor pullbacks to establish better reward/risk set-ups at or near the intermediate pivotal support zone of 24,940/850, with next intermediate resistances at 25,365 and 25,570 (also the 200-day MA) (see Fig. 2).   Nasdaq 100 Benefits if AI-chip restrictions ease Falls if controls tighten Keep pre-event exposure modest as the US Nasdaq 100 CFD has rallied steeply by 2.8% on Monday, 21 September 2026.   Watch for any potential minor pullbacks to establish better reward/risk set-ups at or near the intermediate support zone of 30,245/29,985.   In conjunction, the catalyst for the next bullish leg may be the tone of the communiqué that contains specific semiconductor or licensing language (see Fig. 3). AUD/USD Rises as improved China sentiment supports the Australian dollar’s commodity and growth sensitivity Falls as risk aversion strengthens the USD. AUD/USD has traded in a range between 0.7148 and 0.7080 after a minor bullish reversal at the retest of its 50-day MA (0.7077) ex-post the FOMC.   Bulls need to break above the 0.7148 (range resistance & pre-summit high) to gain a potential foothold towards the intermediate resistances of 0.7165 and 0.7186 (see Fig. 4).   Hawkish Fed repricing remains a potential upside constraint.   Singapore STI / Singapore 30 Gains moderately as improved trade visibility supports regional banks, industrials and China-linked companies Likely underperforms Hong Kong on the downside but still faces regional risk-off pressure. A small bullish position may provide lower-beta exposure to Asia, given Singapore equities' defensive nature.   The Singapore 30 CFD has managed to re-integrate above its 50-day MA after briefly trading below it from 15 to 21 September 2026.   Watch the 529.80/527.04 key intermediate pivotal support zone (also the 50-day MA) to keep the ongoing potential recovery towards the intermediate resistances at 538.64, 543.06 and 545.87 (see Fig. 5).   In conjunction, watch for the ex-post summit movement in USD/CNH and Hong Kong 33 for potential confirmation of a positive reaction. The critical price actions confirmation would be simultaneous strength in AUD/USD and Hong Kong equities alongside a decline in USD/CNH. If that cross-asset confirmation is absent, any initial risk-on reaction may be vulnerable to reversal.

USD/CNH – Still oscillating within a major downtrend phase Fig. 1: USD/CNH medium-term trend as of 22 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance Hong Kong 33 – Transforming into a minor uptrend phase since 17 September Fig. 2: Hong Kong 33 minor trend as of 22 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance US Nasdaq 100 – Minor pullback before new bullish leg Fig. 3: US Nasdaq 100 CFD minor trend as of 22 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance AUD/USD – Watch the 0.7148 range resistance for a bullish breakout Fig. 4: AUD/USD minor trend as of 22 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance Singapore 30 – Recovered above 50-day MA Fig. 5: Singapore 30 CFD minor trend as of 22 Sep 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance Opinions are the authors'; not necessarily that of OANDA Business Information & Services, Inc. or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. The provided publication is for informational and educational purposes only.
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About the Author

Kelvin Wong Senior Market Analyst

Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.

Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.

In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.

Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.

Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.

In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.