Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

A dull week ends with the EUR/USD pair surging to a fresh multi-week high, trading around 1.1560 ahead of the close. Optimism about an end to the Middle East conflict dominated the headlines throughout the first half of the week, only to be followed by the usual delays and diluted hopes.

War headlines keep shaping sentimentUnited States (US) President Donald Trump kept repeating throughout the week that he believed that the war with Iran would be over “soon.” Market players, however, believe the ongoing pause in the Middle East crisis has more to do with reports suggesting the US Army is running out of highly accurate long-range missiles after its five-month war with Iran.

Also, Iran’s chief negotiator Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf accused Trump of staging “theater diplomacy,” accusing the US of bullying and breaking promises. Tehran presented a plan on how to manage the Strait of Hormuz, which includes blocking the critical passage to US and Israeli ships. Traffic through the critical passage remains restrained, while skirmishes between different Middle East countries continue.

On a positive note, Oil prices remained within familiar levels, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude trading around $77 as the week comes to an end.

United States weak labor market?Markets also took note of the US labor market health, with soft readings coupled with persistent inflation-related concerns weighing on the US Dollar (USD). ISM published the July Purchasing Managers’ Index, which showed business activity in the country remained in expansionary territory, with the Manufacturing Index printing at 55.6, and the Services PMI climbing to 54.1. The reports, however, also showed that the Price Paid Indexes linked to both sectors came in higher than anticipated and above 70, hinting at persistent inflationary pressures.

Regarding employment figures, JOLTS Job Openings edged modestly lower in June, although hiring remained unchanged. The ADP Employment Change survey showed that the private sector added measly 44K new jobs in July, down from the 95K previous and the expected 70K, while the Challenger Job Cuts report showed that US-based employers announced 33,429 cuts in July, down from the 45,849 registered in June.

Finally, the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday showed that the country lost 23K jobs in July while the June reading was downwardly revised to measly 20K from the original estimate of 57K. On a positive note, however, the Unemployment Rate shrank to 4.1%, its lowest in over a year, although the labor force Participation Rate also eased a tad, to 61.4% from the previous 61.5%.

Euro lacking life of its ownFinancial markets are all about sentiment and EUR/USD moved accordingly to USD strength/weakness, with the shared currency lacking life of its own.

Data from the Union was far from encouraging: Retail Sales in Germany fell 0.2% in June vs the previous 2.1% advance, while the Eurozone figure for the same month came in at -0.3%, down from the 0.4% advance posted in May. Also, the bloc Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 4.6% in the year to June as expected, down from the previous 5.9%.

The Euro was unable to attract buyers despite European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde warning that surging Oil prices could shape the September rate decision, hinting at an interest rate hike at the next meeting. Indeed, data supports the case for another hike, as euro area annual inflation is expected to be 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.8% in June according to a flash estimate from Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union.

What’s next in the docketInflation takes center stage in the upcoming days, as the US will release the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday. Annual inflation, as measured by the CPI, is foreseen at 3.4%, slightly below the 3.5% posted in June. On the same day, Germany will unveil the final reading of the July Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), while the US will publish the July Producer Price Index (PPI) on Thursday, previously at 5.5%. Friday will bring the first revision of the Eurozone Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), US Retail Sales and the preliminary estimate of the July Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index.

And of course, the focus will remain on Middle East developments and how Oil Prices react to headlines.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook:

The EUR/USD pair turned bullish, according to technical readings in the daily chart, although it still faces some barriers before confirming a steeper advance. The pair holds above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), which advances to 1.1453, but remains below the 100-day SMA at 1.1569 and the 200-day SMA at 1.1629, both flat. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator aims north at 62, while the Momentum indicator also advances above its midline, suggesting ongoing bullish pressure despite the pair struggling to decisively reclaim its heavier moving averages overhead.

In the weekly chart, EUR/USD trades just under the 20-week SMA at 1.1566, which caps the upside and keeps the near-term tone neutral. The pair remains above both the 100-week SMA at 1.1316 and the 200-week SMA at 1.1041, suggesting a broadly constructive medium-term backdrop even as near-term momentum stalls. The Momentum indicator remains below its midline, while the RSI hovers near the 50 line, suggesting a lack of clear directional pressure and favoring consolidation over trend extension for now.

On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at 1.1569, with a stronger barrier at the 200-day SMA near 1.1629, where sellers could reassert control if tested. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 20-day SMA at 1.1453, and a daily close back under this short-term average would hint at fading upside momentum and open the door for a deeper pullback within the broader range.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

The U.S. dollar gets hit after a weaker-than-anticipated jobs number.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD spikes to 1.1557, piercing the 1.1550 resistance level after consolidating above the 200-period EMA near 1.1500. Source: TradingView The U.S. dollar has taken a bit of a hit early during the trading session on Friday as the jobs report came out negative. That was in contrast to the expectations of an addition of about 85,000 jobs. That of course had the markets going crazy for a moment, but when we look at the overall reaction in the euro, it made sense as we pierced the most recent resistance barrier.

But it looks like the market is revisiting that 1.1550 level. If it were to break down below there, that would, more likely than not, bring more questions than answers.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD breaks below 1.3950 after losing the 1.4000 level, with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.3980 now acting as resistance. Source: TradingView The U.S. dollar has fallen pretty significantly against the Canadian dollar, and that does make a certain amount of sense because they’re moving in two different directions from the employment standpoint. That being said, a huge part of Canada’s economy is very dependent on the U.S., so that is important.

The market is breaking below the 1.3950 level, and that could signify that perhaps things are starting to turn around a bit. But when looked at from the prism of the longer term, it is not until we get to the 1.39 level that we even have a 50% pullback. So, the recent rally higher and then the slow decay from here is typical behavior in this pair. Not much to look at other than it’s just more larger rangebound trading between the U.S. dollar and the Canadian dollar.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis USD/JPY trades at 157.75 after falling sharply from 163.00, with 160.00 as overhead resistance and 155.00 as support below. Source: TradingView The Japanese yen has rallied against the U.S. dollar initially, but we’ve seen a turnaround of some significance. It looks like traders are still willing to take the bet on that interest rate differential, and this, of course, has been a big pair as of late due to those interventions coming out of the United States and Japan.

It’s an interesting scenario that we find ourselves in as the market is trying to determine whether or not the intervention is something to fear, or if it just gave traders the opportunity to buy cheaper dollars. I myself have been long of this pair for a very long time, going back almost a year, and I looked at this as a potential buying opportunity when we broke down significantly. Whether or not that pans out remains to be seen, obviously, but the interest rate differential at the end of every day does attract traders.

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Following a quiet opening to the week, Gold (XAU/USD) gathered bullish momentum and climbed to its highest level since mid-June above $4,300, supported by cooling geopolitical tensions and investors scaling back bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September. As the near-term technical outlook highlights a buildup in bullish momentum, July inflation data from the United States (US) will test investors’ commitment to an extended rally. 

Gold rallies as markets reassess Fed policy outlookUS President Donald Trump announced over the weekend that he held off a planned "massive attack" and said that negotiations with Iran will resume on Monday. Crude Oil prices declined sharply at the weekly opening, easing inflation fears and helping Gold hold its ground. 

The bullish action seen in Wall Street made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to gather strength on Tuesday and allowed XAU/USD to continue to inch higher. With the USD coming under additional selling pressure midweek, the precious metal rose more than 4% and posted its largest one-day gain since early February on Wednesday.

The Automatic Data Processing’s (ADP) monthly report showed that private sector payrolls increased by 44K in July, missing the market expectation of 70K. Additionally, the employment component of the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) fell into the contraction territory at 47.4 from 51.2 in July. Falling Oil prices, combined with uninspiring US data, caused investors to reassess the probability of a Fed interest rate hike at the next meeting. With the CME FedWatch Tool’s probability for a September rate increase falling to about 55% from nearly 70% a week prior, US Treasury bond yields turned south and fuelled Gold’s impressive upsurge.

In the meantime, Minneapolis Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank President Neel Kashkari, who voted for a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike at the July meeting, unexpectedly adopted a wary tone on policy tightening and further weighed on the USD.

The FXS Speechtracker scored Kashkari’s speech on Wednesday a 4.6/10, marking a notably softer tone relative to the historical average of 6.8/10. Kashkari’s emphasis that the goal is to bring down inflation without explicitly aiming to slow the economy, combined with the view that recent price pressure is largely supply-driven, and the remark about not calling for a dramatic increase in rates pointed to a nuanced, neutral posture rather than an aggressive tightening bias. The focus on the Committee’s communications stance and the value of explaining the reaction function suggested continued data-dependence and an openness to flexible policy signaling. 

Commenting on Gold’s action, analysts at OCBC noted that Gold rose sharply as easing Middle East tensions pushed Oil prices lower, while US Treasury yields and the USD also eased. They added that “market expectations for Fed to hike in Sep has eased,” while the sharp move in the yellow metal “accelerated after prices cleared recent resistance, triggering technical buying and short covering.” According to OCBC, Gold’s strength now “suggests investors are increasingly pricing a de-escalation of the US-Iran conflict, a normalisation of Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, lower real interest rates and a softer USD,” providing a broad-based fundamental backdrop to the latest gains.

Following a consolidation phase on Thursday, Gold regathered its bullish momentum heading into the crucial US employment data and extended its weekly uptrend to further beyond $4,300.

Heading into the weekend, Gold advanced beyond $4,350 as the probability of a September rate hike declined further. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) declined by 23K in July. This print followed the 20K increase (revised lower from 57K) recorded in June and fell short of the market expectation for an increase of 80K by a wide margin.

Source: CME GroupGold investors await US inflation dataThe BLS will publish July inflation data on Wednesday. Investors expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise by 0.1% on a monthly basis, and see the core CPI increasing by 0.2% after staying unchanged in June.

In case the monthly core CPI rises at a faster pace than anticipated, the immediate reaction could cause investors to second-guess the probability of a September Fed policy hold. In this scenario, US T-bond yields could edge higher and cause Gold to correct lower. Conversely, the USD is likely to remain under pressure and leave the door open for another leg higher in Gold, if the monthly core CPI comes in below the market forecast.

Analysts at Commerzbank argue that the Fed’s near-term policy path remains highly contingent on the incoming inflation data. They note that “at its next meeting in September, the Fed will likely refrain from raising interest rates if inflation has begun to ease by then, and the July figures would not contradict such a scenario.” However, they caution that “inflation would likely also have to remain low in August to prevent the Fed from raising rates in September,” underscoring how little room there is for upside surprises. 

Against this backdrop, Commerzbank highlights the political sensitivity around further tightening, stressing that whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh “can avoid an interest rate hike — which would certainly not be well-received by President Trump — depends heavily on whether inflation moves in the right direction soon,” and that “next week’s consumer price data will therefore attract a great deal of attention.” 

At the same time, market participants will continue to pay close attention to developments in the Middle East. If the conflict between the US and Iran heats up again and Crude Oil prices turn north, with the US refusing to stop enforcing a naval blockade on Iranian ports or rejecting Iran and Oman’s joint effort to manage the Strait of Hormuz, Gold could have a difficult time preserving its bullish momentum.

Analysts at Rabobank caution that hopes for a swift resolution to shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz may be misplaced. They argue that “a short-term deal to open up the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping is unlikely as both sides have very little common ground,” noting that such an arrangement “offers no permanent solutions for the key sticking points that the whole conflict centers around.” Even in the event that an agreement is reached, Rabobank stresses that it would merely “offer another 60-day window of free transits through Hormuz while further negotiations resume,” rather than a durable settlement. In their view, “if a deal is agreed, it could be a matter of time until either party expresses frustration with the negotiations again and markets are forced to price in another few weeks of geopolitical tension,” underscoring the potential for recurring bouts of volatility as the dispute drags on.

FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls dominateThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart climbed to its highest level since late January and Gold broke above the descending trend line drawn from early March, highlighting a buildup in bullish momentum.

On the upside, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,390 aligns as the next important resistance level ahead of $4,495-$4,510 (200-day SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the March-August downtrend). If Gold manages to clear that latter resistance area, increasing technical buying pressure could pave the way for an extended rally toward $4,680 (Fibonacci 50% retracement).

Looking south, the immediate support area aligns at $4,300 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) before $4,150 (20-day SMA) and $4,100-$4,080 (broken descending trend line, 20-day SMA). If Gold returns below this area, the next line of defence before additional losses could be seen at $3,965 (static level, end-point of the downtrend).

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Gold goes racing higher after the jobs report in the US was weaker than anticipated. However, the move has been in play for a few days.

Gold Technical Analysis

Gold breaks above the 200-day EMA near $4,297 on weak NFP data, with $4,000 as support and $4,600 as the next major level. The gold market has shot straight up in the air during the early part of the trading session here on Friday as the jobs numbers in the United States came out negative 28,000 instead of the expected addition of just a bit over 80,000. This has the U.S. dollar on its back foot, and of course, traders are starting to already think about the Federal Reserve having to loosen monetary policy. Bets will be shifting towards a looser Fed, and therefore stocks suddenly become a little bit more attractive right along with precious metals. We’re seeing this across the board.

Whether or not this sticks remains to be seen, but so far, it certainly appears as if traders are treating the old bad news is good news behavior as the way to go going forward. We have a while before the end of the session, but right now, this looks like the 200-day EMA offered a little bit of resistance previously, now looks to offer support. We’ll just have to wait and see.

Macro Catalysts and Technical Support The $4,600 level above was an area of importance previously, so one would wonder whether or not market memory comes into play in that scenario. With that being the case, this market remains one that will be noisy, one that will move on interest rates, and one that will have a lot of external pressures via geopolitics, the U.S. dollar, interest rate markets, and whether or not people want to hold going into the weekend.

It’s a strong start so far. We have definitively broken above the crucial 200-day EMA. Generally speaking, technical traders like that. We’ll see if that holds.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that the Silver price has surged over 10% this week to USD 63.9 per troy ounce, its highest level since late June, pulling the gold/silver ratio back below 70. However, he highlights that solar-sector demand is set to decline for a second year, with Silver’s share in solar modules and total demand expected to fall despite still-elevated prices.

Solar sector drag on silver demand"Prices for silver, platinum and palladium also rose sharply in the wake of gold. Since the start of the week, the silver price has risen by more than 10% to USD 63.9 per troy ounce, its highest level since late June. As a result, the gold/silver ratio has fallen below 70 again."

"The tailwind for the silver price from the solar industry could be slowing down. BNEF estimates that 19% less silver will be used in the production of solar modules this year than last year."

"This would mark the second consecutive decline. The solar industry’s share of total silver demand is therefore expected to fall to 14%, down from 18% last year. BNEF’s assessment largely aligns with that of the Silver Institute in April, which also anticipates a significant decline in demand from the photovoltaic sector this year."

"BNEF attributes this to a reduction in the use of silver in silicon solar cells, which is expected to fall by a further 17% this year. This was likely triggered by the sharp rise in prices, which reached a record high of USD 120 per troy ounce at the end of January."

"The silver price has since fallen by roughly half, but is still around 65% higher than a year ago. According to BNEF, silver currently accounts for more than 17% of the production costs of a solar module, making it the largest component of material costs."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Why weak payrolls broke the week’s stalemate, and why Hormuz, Saudi warnings and US-China tensions mean the move isn’t a simple green light for risk What’s happening: July nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -23K against expectations for an 85K gain, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103K and wage growth slowed. Markets responded by cutting September Fed hike odds to around 42%, sending the Dollar broadly lower, Gold decisively above $4,300 and Silver toward $65, while USD/JPY reversed back toward 155.Why it matters: This is the catalyst markets had been waiting for all week, but equities responded far more cautiously than the Dollar or precious metals, since outright payroll contraction alongside heavy downward revisions raises real growth concerns, not just rate-cut hopes. Markets may be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates, but not automatically good for risk assets.Also today: Hormuz talks are progressing, but reported Iranian draft terms, barring US and Israeli vessels and threatening restrictions on countries deemed to have harmed Iran, look far more conditional than a genuine reopening. Saudi Arabia signed a new defense pact with Pakistan and Turkey while warning of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups, raising the risk that diplomatic progress and military escalation are running on separate tracks at once. The US imposed a new 15% duty on polysilicon imports, extending US-China strategic competition into solar, semiconductor and AI-infrastructure supply chains just as China’s chip exports surged 117% year-over-year. NFP Delivers the Shock Markets Were Waiting For The US jobs report finally gave markets the catalyst they had been waiting for, sending the Dollar sharply lower and precious metals surging as traders scaled back expectations for another Fed rate hike. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell -23K in July, compared with expectations for an 85K increase, but the headline shock was only part of the story. May payroll growth was revised down from 129K to 63K and June from 57K to just 20K, wiping 103K from previously reported employment gains. Average hourly earnings also slowed from 0.3% to 0.1% month-over-month, adding to evidence that the labor market is losing momentum. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped from 4.2% to 4.1%, but the accompanying decline in participation from 61.5% to 61.4% made that improvement less reassuring.

July NFP Breakdown Headline NFP: -23K, against expectations for +85K May payrolls: revised down from 129K to 63K June payrolls: revised down from 57K to 20K (103K wiped from prior reports combined) Average hourly earnings: slowed from 0.3% to 0.1% m/m Unemployment rate: dipped to 4.1% from 4.2%, though participation fell from 61.5% to 61.4% Why the Hawkish Case Just Got Harder Markets responded by quickly cutting the probability of a September Fed hike to around 42%. That represents a significant challenge to the hawkish case put forward by several Fed officials this week. Kashkari argued that the Fed should begin raising rates gradually, while Musalem said policymakers should be prepared to surprise markets rather than allow prevailing pricing to dictate policy. But their argument partly rests on the economy and labor market being resilient enough to absorb additional tightening. Negative payroll growth, substantial downward revisions and softer wages raise that hurdle considerably. Inflation remains too high for the Fed to declare victory, particularly with energy risks unresolved, but the latest employment report strengthens the majority case for waiting rather than tightening pre-emptively.

Dollar Reaction Was Broad, and USD/JPY Is the Story to Watch The Dollar reaction was broad. EUR/USD and AUD/USD broke to fresh highs for the week, while USD/JPY reversed much of its rebound and headed back toward 155. That move is particularly notable after last week’s rare US-Japan intervention. As discussed ahead of payrolls, intervention had created an asymmetric setup: traders chasing USD/JPY toward 160 after strong data would have to contend with renewed intervention risk, while a data-driven fall toward 155 would face no equivalent official deterrent. July NFP delivered precisely that downside scenario.

The Canadian Dollar performed even better after Canada simultaneously reported a 75.1K employment surge against expectations for 17.8K, while unemployment fell from 6.5% to 6.4%. USD/CAD therefore faced pressure from both sides, weak US employment and unexpectedly strong Canadian hiring.

Gold and Silver Break Higher as Fed Hike Risk Fades The reaction in precious metals was immediate. Gold decisively cleared 4,300, a level that had capped its rebound earlier this week, and accelerated above 4,350. Silver simultaneously surged toward $65. Both moves reinforce the case that recent precious-metals rallies are developing into something more substantial than corrective rebounds. Lower Fed hike expectations reduce pressure from real yields and the Dollar, while geopolitical uncertainty provides another layer of support.

Gold’s break is particularly significant because 4,300 had represented the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 4889.24 to 3942.23, near 4303.98. Earlier attempts to clear that area had stalled as Treasury yields and Brent awaited confirmation of progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. NFP has now supplied a separate catalyst. If Gold can sustain the breakout, attention should increasingly shift toward medium-term trend line resistance around 4,500.

Key Technical Levels Gold: cleared 4,300 (the 38.2% retracement of the 4889.24-3942.23 decline, near 4303.98) and accelerated above 4,350 Silver: surging toward $65 Next resistance: medium-term trend line around 4,500 Equities Show Restraint: Good for Rates, Not Automatically Good for Risk Equities delivered a more restrained response. Dow futures rose around 170 points, leaving the index within reach of another challenge to the record set earlier this week, but the reaction was nowhere near as forceful as the moves in Dollar or precious metals. That restraint is understandable. Weaker employment reduces the probability of additional Fed tightening, which supports valuations, but outright payroll contraction accompanied by substantial downward revisions also raises questions about underlying growth. Markets may therefore be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates, but no longer automatically good for risk assets.

Hormuz Talks Progress, but the Details Complicate the Optimism That caution is reinforced by increasingly complicated developments in the Middle East. Iran and Oman continue working toward an arrangement defining shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, but despite expectations earlier this week that an agreement could arrive quickly, no final deal has yet been announced. The latest reports suggest inbound traffic could travel through Iranian waters while outbound vessels use Omani waters. Yet the reported Iranian draft terms raise questions over how closely any arrangement would resemble a genuine normalization of shipping.

Under the apparent draft proposal, US and Israeli vessels would be barred from using the Strait, while countries deemed to have harmed Iran could face restrictions until compensation is paid. Such conditions would make the proposed arrangement substantially different from an unconditional reopening. It also remains unclear how the temporary framework would evolve into a durable settlement. Markets have spent much of the week pricing falling geopolitical risk through lower oil and stronger equities, but the details now matter more than general expectations of a deal.

Diplomatic Rhetoric Turns More Hostile Diplomatic rhetoric is simultaneously becoming more hostile. Iran’s chief negotiator accused US President Donald Trump of engaging in “theater diplomacy,” highlighting conflicting accounts from Washington and Tehran over bilateral contacts. More importantly, progress over Hormuz is occurring alongside signs that regional military risks may be increasing rather than disappearing.

Saudi Warnings Add a New Escalation Risk Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey signed a joint defense agreement in Mecca on Friday as Riyadh warned of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups. A senior Saudi official said intelligence from Saudi Arabia, the US and other regional countries pointed to potential attacks from Iraqi militias to the north and Houthis in Yemen to the south, potentially targeting civilian and economic infrastructure including energy facilities, ports and airports.

Particularly important was the Saudi official’s suggestion that possible attacks could reflect “a power struggle within Iran itself” and might be intended to derail negotiations that had otherwise been “heading in the right direction.” If that assessment proves accurate, it complicates the assumption that diplomatic progress automatically translates into lower geopolitical risk. Negotiations over Hormuz could advance at the government level while other actors simultaneously attempt to undermine them through military escalation.

Two Middle East Stories on Separate Tracks That creates two Middle East stories moving on separate tracks. One is diplomatic: Iran and Oman are trying to establish a framework that could restore more normal shipping through the Strait. The other is military: Gulf states are preparing for the possibility that regional attacks could intensify even while those negotiations continue. Brent’s recent inability to extend decisively below $78 and subsequent rebound above $83 increasingly looks consistent with that uncertainty.

US-China Competition Intensifies on Another Front Geopolitics is also moving beyond the Middle East. The Trump administration imposed a new 15% duty on polysilicon products on Thursday and introduced minimum prices for some related imports, explicitly framing the measure as an effort to protect US solar and semiconductor supply chains from Chinese competition. Polysilicon sits at the intersection of several strategic priorities, solar power, semiconductors, AI infrastructure and energy security, making the move another example of economic policy becoming inseparable from great-power competition.

The timing is notable given China’s strong July trade figures. Chinese exports rose 23.9% year-over-year, beating expectations, while chip exports surged 117% as global AI infrastructure demand continued to power high-tech manufacturing. Washington’s latest action therefore comes precisely as advanced technology becomes an increasingly important source of Chinese export growth. That suggests trade tensions are shifting further toward sectors viewed as strategically important rather than simply those generating large bilateral deficits.

What This Means Heading Into the Weekend For markets, the immediate driver remains the US employment shock. The Dollar has broken lower, Gold has cleared $4,300, Silver is approaching $65 and September Fed hike expectations have retreated sharply. But heading into the weekend, weaker payrolls cannot be treated as a straightforward invitation to extend risk-on positions. The Hormuz agreement remains unfinished, regional military threats are increasing, and US-China strategic competition is intensifying. NFP has broken this week’s market stalemate; whether those moves survive next week may depend increasingly on what happens outside the economic calendar.

Related Coverage Jobs & Trade Data Deep Dives Read the full NFP breakdown showing how deep the downward revisions cut into prior job gains: US Non-Farm Payrolls Contract -23k. Revisions Expose Deeper Labor Market Weakness. See the full Canada jobs report, including why wage growth cooling to 2.8% still reduces pressure for more BoC support: Canada Jobs Surge 75K as Unemployment Falls to Two-Year Low. Read why China’s export beat still raises sustainability questions once tariff front-loading fades: China Exports Rise 23.9% YoY as High-Tech Demand Defies Tariffs. Frequently Asked Questions Q: Why did equities react more cautiously than the Dollar and Gold to the NFP miss? A: Weaker employment reduces the probability of additional Fed tightening, which normally supports valuations. But outright payroll contraction, combined with substantial downward revisions to May and June, also raises questions about underlying growth. Markets may be approaching the point where bad economic news is still good for rates but no longer automatically good for risk assets, which is why Dow futures rose a modest 170 points while the Dollar and precious metals moved far more forcefully.

Q: Why does USD/JPY’s move back toward 155 matter after last week’s intervention? A: Last week’s coordinated US-Japan intervention created an asymmetric setup: traders pushing USD/JPY back toward 160 on strong data would face renewed intervention risk, while a data-driven fall toward 155 would face no equivalent official deterrent. July’s NFP delivered exactly that downside scenario, reversing much of USD/JPY’s prior rebound with no offsetting pushback expected from Japanese authorities.

Q: Does progress on Hormuz shipping talks mean geopolitical risk is actually falling? A: Not necessarily. Reported draft terms would bar US and Israeli vessels from the Strait and threaten restrictions on countries deemed to have harmed Iran until compensation is paid, conditions that make any arrangement substantially different from an unconditional reopening. At the same time, Saudi Arabia has warned of possible coordinated attacks from Iran-aligned groups, which a Saudi official suggested could reflect a power struggle within Iran aimed at derailing the negotiations. That means diplomatic progress and military escalation risk could be running on separate tracks simultaneously.

Key Takeaways NFP delivered a genuine shock: Headline payrolls fell -23K against expectations for +85K, while May and June were revised down by a combined 103K and wage growth slowed to 0.1% m/m. September Fed hike odds were cut to around 42%: The report significantly raises the hurdle for the hawkish case made by Kashkari and Musalem this week, since it rested on the economy being resilient enough to absorb more tightening. Dollar, Gold and Silver moved far more forcefully than equities: Gold cleared 4,300 and accelerated above 4,350, and Silver pushed toward $65, but Dow futures rose a more modest 170 points, since weak payrolls raise growth questions even as they support the case for a Fed pause. USD/JPY’s reversal toward 155 fits last week’s intervention asymmetry: A data-driven move lower carries no equivalent official deterrent to the one traders would face pushing the pair back toward 160. Hormuz progress comes with complicating conditions: Reported draft terms barring US and Israeli vessels and threatening restrictions on other countries look far more conditional than a genuine reopening, while Saudi Arabia’s new defense pact and attack warnings suggest military risk could be rising even as talks continue. US-China tensions are extending into strategic technology supply chains: The new US polysilicon tariff lands just as China’s chip exports surged 117% year-over-year, pointing to trade friction shifting toward strategically important sectors. What to Watch Next Whether this week’s moves hold into next week may depend less on the economic calendar than on developments outside it: whether the Hormuz framework firms into something closer to an unconditional reopening, whether Saudi Arabia’s escalation warnings materialize, and whether US-China tensions extend further into strategic technology sectors.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold has stormed back into the spotlight and its next move could leave late buyers chasing. On August 5, the yellow metal surged almost 7% – roughly $174 – to close near $4,308 an ounce, posting one of its biggest daily advances in recent history.

A weaker U.S dollar, falling Treasury yields, changing Federal Reserve expectations and renewed safe-haven demand all struck at once. The biggest Commodity rallies often begin when several forces converge before markets recognize the opportunity.

Technically, Gold is trading in its tightest structure since August 2025 – the period that preceded a 60% advance over the following five months. Buyers have regained control, but $4,400 is decisive.

“A confirmed break above $4,400 could force underexposed traders to chase the market,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “Once institutional momentum accelerates, attractive entry prices can disappear very quickly.”

China’s appetite for Gold has reached extraordinary proportions. In June alone, the country imported volumes comparable with the combined monthly production of the world’s ten largest Gold-producing nations. Annualized, that pace would equal roughly 64% of global mine supply.

This resembles strategic accumulation, not routine buying.

Beijing followed a similar pattern in Crude Oil after tensions escalated in Iran, using uncertainty to strengthen national reserves. Gold may now be serving the same purpose: protection against currency risk and financial fragmentation.

“The market should stop asking whether China is stockpiling,” Hansen says. “The real question is what Beijing sees coming that other traders have not yet priced in.”

China’s volatile Equity market is adding another demand engine. Policy shocks, trade restrictions and turbulence across technology shares have pushed households and institutions towards assets seen as more dependable.

Gold-backed ETFs have recorded 14 consecutive days of inflows, attracting approximately $1.2 billion. That followed outflows in 38 of the previous 44 sessions, signalling that sentiment has changed with exceptional speed.

When capital turns this aggressively, it rarely waits for perfect confirmation.

The U.S Dollar Index appears to be breaking below a trendline that shaped its direction for more than 15 years. Co-ordinated U.S-Japan intervention to support the yen suggests policymakers may tolerate a weaker dollar.

That could become a major accelerant for Precious Metals.

“A sustained dollar decline would not be a short-lived event,” Hansen says. “Currency trends of this magnitude can fuel Gold and Silver bull markets for years.”

While many traders remain distracted by short-term volatility, central banks are sending a very different signal.

They purchased 289 tonnes of Gold in the second quarter, taking first-half acquisitions to 345 tonnes, while repeated buying around $4,000 suggests that level could be evolving into Gold’s next structural floor. History shows that powerful bull markets are often built on sustained accumulation before the wider market recognises what is unfolding.

“Major bull markets build higher floors, punish hesitation and reward traders positioned before the breakout becomes obvious,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club.

That, Hansen argues, is precisely the opportunity developing now.

Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major Gold price trends, a record well documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports. The firm’s proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in both Gold and Silver – earning GSC recognition as a trusted authority among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike.

“The biggest fortunes in bull markets are rarely made by those waiting for the crowd,” Hansen says. “They are made by traders who recognize the shift early and are already positioned when the real acceleration begins.”

A decisive breakout above $4,400 could mark the beginning of Gold’s next major leg higher, potentially forcing momentum traders, institutional investors and billions of dollars of sidelined capital to chase the move.

That is where the urgency lies. If Gold breaks out, the window to accumulate Gold and Silver at today’s prices could close very quickly. By the time the headlines declare the next bull run has arrived, smart money may already be positioned and everyone else could be competing for exposure at substantially higher prices.

August 2026 could ultimately be remembered not as the month traders should have been watching Gold, but as the moment they should have been buying it.

The catalysts are aligning. Smart money is moving. The technical trigger is within striking distance. That’s welcoming news for the bulls, but painful for anyone sitting on the side lines, who must now decide how much FOMO they can handle.

Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its strong rally on Friday, trading around $64.10 at the time of writing, up 4.16% on the day. The white metal reaches a fresh six-week high and is on track for its best weekly performance since February, supported by fading expectations of further interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and persistent demand for safe-haven assets.

Markets, however, remain cautious ahead of the release of the United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report later in the day. Economists expect the US economy to have added 80K jobs in July after 57K in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2% and annual Average Hourly Earnings growth is expected to hold at 3.5%. The data could reshape expectations for the Fed's monetary policy path.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, investors have scaled back expectations for additional monetary tightening in recent days, a factor that continues to support precious metals, which typically perform well when interest rate expectations ease.

Meanwhile, geopolitical developments continue to support demand for safe-haven assets. Tensions in the Middle East remain elevated following reports of potential escalation involving Iran, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, as well as renewed uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

Against this backdrop, the US employment report is expected to be the main short-term catalyst for Silver. A stronger-than-expected report could revive expectations of a more hawkish Fed and limit the metal's upside, while weaker data could weaken those expectations, providing additional support for XAG/USD.

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report EUR/USD has retreated to 1.1524 after failing several times near 1.1560. Intraday, they see scope for further pullback but expect strong support at 1.1495 to hold. Over the next 1–3 weeks, a close above 1.1565 would open the way toward 1.1600, while a break below 1.1495 would signal a shift into range trading.

Support at 1.1495, resistance at 1.1565"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR edged higher as we expected two days ago, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The mild upward pressure remains intact. Today, there is a chance for EUR to break above 1.1565, but it remains to be seen whether it can maintain a foothold above this level. Based on the prevailing momentum, the major resistance at 1.1600 is highly unlikely to come into view.” Our assessments turned out to be incorrect. From a high of 1.1559, EUR pulled back to 1.1514 before settling at 1.1524 (-0.23%). While there is scope for EUR to pull back further today, any decline is unlikely to break the strong support at 1.1495 (there is another support level at 1.1510). Resistance is at 1.1535, followed by 1.1550."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Gold (XAU/USD) extends its recovery on Friday as technical buying accelerates, even as market sentiment remains cautious due to developments in the Middle East and uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest-rate outlook. Traders now await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, due at 12:30 GMT.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,322, climbing to a fresh seven-week high.

Economists expect the US economy to add 80K jobs in July, following a 57K increase in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.2%.

The precious metal is heading for its strongest weekly rise since January, gaining more than 6% so far after breaking above the month-old $4,000-$4,200 range on Wednesday. The advance was initially fuelled by optimism that the Strait of Hormuz could reopen soon as Iran and Oman reportedly moved closer to an agreement on a proposed shipping route through the waterway.

The development pushed Oil prices sharply lower earlier in the week, easing concerns over energy-driven inflation and weighing on the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury yields as traders scaled back bets on Fed interest rate hikes. Gold tends to perform well in a low-interest-rate environment, as it offers no yield.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets currently see around a 55% probability of a rate hike at the September meeting, down from roughly 67% a week ago. The upcoming employment data could shift those expectations and determine whether Gold extends its advance or begins to lose momentum.

Nevertheless, energy-related inflation risks have diminished rather than disappeared, as Oil prices still carry a substantial geopolitical risk premium. Fars News reported on Friday that Iran had struck what it described as “hostile targets” in the Strait of Hormuz.

Meanwhile, the proposed Iran-Oman arrangement would not result in a complete reopening of the Strait. Tehran could collect transit fees under the framework and is also reviewing a bill that would bar US, Israeli and other hostile vessels from using the waterway.

Technical analysis: Daily chart

XAU/USD bounced back above the Bollinger Bands’ 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,084 and is now holding over the upper band at $4,256, hinting at firm underlying demand after the recent range-bound trade.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64 approaches overbought territory on the daily chart, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram stays firmly positive, reinforcing bullish momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 100-day SMA at $4,390, and a sustained break above this barrier would open the way for a more decisive bullish continuation.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger upper band near $4,256, followed by the mid-line at $4,084, with a more solid floor at the horizontal level of $4,000.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are part of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly jobs report. The Nonfarm Payrolls component specifically measures the change in the number of people employed in the US during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

The Nonfarm Payrolls figure can influence the decisions of the Federal Reserve by providing a measure of how successfully the Fed is meeting its mandate of fostering full employment and 2% inflation. A relatively high NFP figure means more people are in employment, earning more money and therefore probably spending more. A relatively low Nonfarm Payrolls’ result, on the either hand, could mean people are struggling to find work. The Fed will typically raise interest rates to combat high inflation triggered by low unemployment, and lower them to stimulate a stagnant labor market.

Nonfarm Payrolls generally have a positive correlation with the US Dollar. This means when payrolls’ figures come out higher-than-expected the USD tends to rally and vice versa when they are lower. NFPs influence the US Dollar by virtue of their impact on inflation, monetary policy expectations and interest rates. A higher NFP usually means the Federal Reserve will be more tight in its monetary policy, supporting the USD.

Nonfarm Payrolls are generally negatively-correlated with the price of Gold. This means a higher-than-expected payrolls’ figure will have a depressing effect on the Gold price and vice versa. Higher NFP generally has a positive effect on the value of the USD, and like most major commodities Gold is priced in US Dollars. If the USD gains in value, therefore, it requires less Dollars to buy an ounce of Gold. Also, higher interest rates (typically helped higher NFPs) also lessen the attractiveness of Gold as an investment compared to staying in cash, where the money will at least earn interest.

Nonfarm Payrolls is only one component within a bigger jobs report and it can be overshadowed by the other components. At times, when NFP come out higher-than-forecast, but the Average Weekly Earnings is lower than expected, the market has ignored the potentially inflationary effect of the headline result and interpreted the fall in earnings as deflationary. The Participation Rate and the Average Weekly Hours components can also influence the market reaction, but only in seldom events like the “Great Resignation” or the Global Financial Crisis.

Summary:

Stronger US Treasury yields and pre-NFP position adjustments boosted dollar demand, outweighing reduced safe-haven interest following Middle East diplomatic progress With no Bank of England meeting until September, sterling is trading reactively to US data, especially the closely watched July nonfarm payrolls report Market participants can capitalize on current range-bound conditions between key technical levels or await breakout opportunities following critical economic data The British pound (GBP) ended July strongly against the U.S. dollar, surpassing the 1.3500 mark after a three-day rally. However, August has presented a more volatile trading period for GBP/USD. In the first five trading days of August, the pair only managed two positive closes, returning to the 1.3440 level.

Traders were caught off guard by the dollar’s sudden dip. Global demand for safe havens relaxed, as talk of war in the Middle East quieted down thanks to diplomatic discussions about the Strait of Hormuz. So, why is the dollar still so strong despite this?

The Dollar’s Comeback Isn’t About Fear Anymore The dollar’s surprising strength right now is what’s really noteworthy, especially since a classic safe-haven driver, the risk of Middle East war, is actually fading. Iran and Oman have made good headway on a plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, reports this week even point to an agreed-upon shipping route.

This proposed deal would have ships moving through routes controlled by both Iran and Oman, which could undo months of disruption in a waterway that handles about a fifth of the world’s oil.

Normally, such de-escalation would reduce demand for the dollar as investors move away from safe-haven assets. However, the dollar’s resilience suggests other factors are at play. The primary reason for sterling’s weakness is a widening yield differential.

U.S. Treasury yields have remained stable due to consistent hawkish commentary from the Federal Reserve, while U.K. gilt yields have declined amid concerns about sluggish domestic economic growth.

Reports indicate Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is still considering a September rate hike if new inflation data stays stubborn. That’s pushed Treasury yields higher and backed the dollar. Markets are now paying more attention to the chance of tighter policy rather than just an extended pause.

Meanwhile, institutional investors reduced their short-dollar positions in anticipation of key U.S. economic data releases, including Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and ISM services figures.

On the UK side, the pound has its own headwinds. The Bank of England maintained its interest rate at 3.75% on July 30 and does not have another meeting scheduled until September 17. This leaves sterling largely influenced by U.S. economic data rather than having its own domestic drivers this month.

What to Expect In the Coming Weeks and Months for GBPUSD In the short term, GBPUSD will probably keep reacting to U.S. data and what the Fed says. The pair has been moving between 1.32 and 1.36. To break out of this range, either up or down, we’ll need clearer signals from American economic indicators.

If payrolls and upcoming inflation numbers are strong, the dollar might continue its slight comeback and push the pound towards the lower end of that 1.32–1.36 range. On the other hand, if the jobs report is significantly weaker, it would quickly bring back the idea that the Fed might be more patient, and the pound could test the 1.35 level again.

For now, it seems like the market is stuck in a range and reacting to specific events, rather than moving in a clear trend.

Why is the US dollar getting stronger against the sterling pound despite easing Middle East tensions?

Hawkish Fed signals under Chair Kevin Warsh, including rising odds of a September rate hike, are outweighing reduced safe-haven demand from cooling Iran-related risks.

How are interest rate differentials currently affecting the performance of the British pound against the U.S. dollar?

U.K. gilt yields softened faster than U.S. Treasury yields, reducing sterling’s relative yield advantage and encouraging capital flows back into dollars.

How does the pair’s near-term outlook look?

It remains likely to keep trading range-bound between roughly 1.32 and 1.36, with US labour and inflation data likely to dictate the next directional move.

According to COT data released on 31 July, large specs (short for speculative traders) are heavily long 2-year and 5-year Treasury futures.

Large specs are professional market participants such as hedge funds, commodity trading advisers and other large money managers. Their positions are tracked because they can offer a useful view of how bigger traders are leaning.

By going long Treasury futures, these big players are positioning for note prices to rise. Since note prices and yields move in opposite directions, which tells me that they are leaning towards lower 2-year and 5-year yields.

These are historically great conditions for Gold and Silver.

Earlier this year, one of the biggest pressures on the metals was the fear that sticky inflation would force the Fed to stay hawkish. Short-term yields pushed higher, and gold began losing momentum. 

But now, the script may be flipping. 

Take a look at the chart below. It compares gold with the 2-year minus 30-year Treasury yield spread. 

The blue line shows how the 2-year yield is moving against the 30-year yield.

When the line trends higher, the 2-year yield is rising faster, or falling more slowly, than the 30-year yield. That usually points to stronger pressure from near-term Fed policy. 

Notice how gold tends to struggle during those periods.

When the line trends lower, the 2-year yield is weakening relative to the 30-year yield. If the 2-year is falling faster, it suggests that immediate rate pressure is starting to cool.

Gold has generally done much better when that happens.

One technical tell I like on this chart is the break of the 20 EMA band, created using Bollinger Bands set at one standard deviation.

Back in November 2025, the spread broke below the band and started trending lower. Gold then moved into a much stronger uptrend.

Earlier this year, the spread broke back above the band as pressure from short-term yields returned. Gold subsequently began falling.

Now, we have just seen another break below the 20 EMA band.

It looks similar to the shift we saw in late 2025, when the 2-year yield began losing ground against the long end and gold started pushing higher.

It still needs follow-through, of course. But for the first time in a while, the rates backdrop is starting to look less hostile for metals.

Gold and Silver are stronger, but resistance is closeGold has now returned to the 4,250 to 4,380 zone. This was previously an area where price found support, before rejecting from the same region again in late June. So we already know this zone has enough weight to turn the market.

Daily Stoch RSI is also flashing overbought after gold’s sharp rise. That does leave the door open for a short-term retracement.

There is one important difference this time, though. Gold is now trading above the 20 EMA band (set via Bollingers), which had been suppressing price since March. The move also came after a breakout from the recent triangle pattern.

So if gold pulls back towards the 20 EMA band and the triangle’s former upper trendline near 4,120, I would personally watch for a bullish reaction. If that area fails, however, the 4,000 region could come back into view.

For silver, the technical picture is even simpler. Price is now testing a clear descending trendline that has been in place since February.

Pair that with an overbought daily Stoch RSI, and a small retracement would not be surprising. Silver has also broken above its 20 EMA band and that makes 59.64 the main area I would watch on a pullback.

If buyers step back in there, it would support the breakout. If price falls back below the band, silver may still need more time before breaking out of the wider downtrend.

The US Dollar (USD) pares gains against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Friday, with the USD/CHF pair drifting towards the 0.8100 level, after rejection at 0.8136 highs on Thursday. The Greenback is still on track for a 0.3% rally this week, but investors’ cautiousness ahead of the release of the key US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is keeping USD bulls in check on Friday.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank expect only a modest improvement in July's payrolls, looking for “a slight uptick in headline (+65k forecast vs. +57k previously) and private (+65k vs. +49k) payrolls.” They note that such an outcome “would put the latest readings below the 3- and 6-month moving averages, consistent with the recent slowing in the weekly ADP reports,” underscoring a gradual cooling in hiring momentum.

In Switzerland, the SECO Consumer Climate Index, released earlier in the day, has shown a slight improvement to -35 in Q3, from -40 in the previous quarter, although it remains close to historic lows. The impact on the Swissie has been minimal.

Technical Analysis: The Near-term bias remains positive

USD/CHF trades at 0.8105, after retreating from 0.813, yet with price action showing a constructive pattern from July 30 lows. Momentum is positive, although showing fading bullish traction, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around a neutral 50 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line marginally above its signal and zero.

US Dollar bears are testing support at a previous resistance zone above 0.8100. Further down, the trendline resistance from the mentioned July 30 low, now around 0.8075, and the bottom of August's trading range, at the 0.8055-0.8060 area, are likely to test downside momentum.

On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Thursday's high of 0.8124 and the July 30 high at 0.8175 ahead of the 13-month high, at 0.8205 hit in late July.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY stood at 158.39 on Friday, with the Japanese yen giving back some of the gains made following the joint intervention by Tokyo and Washington. The renewed weakness has once again raised expectations of possible further action by the authorities.

The pullback has highlighted that currency interventions alone are insufficient to address the fundamental drivers of the yen’s weakness. Pressure on the currency is being driven by a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.

An additional negative factor has been the strengthening of the dollar and the recovery in oil prices following renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic data have also been weak, with Japanese household spending falling 3.3% in June, against expectations of 1.0% growth – pointing to subdued consumer demand.

Investors are now pricing in the possibility of a Bank of Japan rate hike in September. While the regulator left policy settings unchanged last week, markets continue to price in further tightening.

Technical analysis

On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 157.90 level, currently extending up to 158.56. A move lower towards 157.90 is expected today, followed by a move higher to 159.50. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing upwards.

On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 158.56. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. A move lower towards at least 157.90 is expected, followed by a move higher to 159.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.

ConclusionUSD/JPY has regained some ground as the yen’s post-intervention gains fade, highlighting the limitations of currency intervention in addressing the fundamental drivers of yen weakness. Wide interest rate differentials, fiscal risks, high energy costs, and weak domestic spending continue to weigh on the currency. Renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed oil prices higher, while disappointing household spending data have added to concerns over sluggish consumer demand. Markets are now pricing in a potential Bank of Japan rate hike in September. Technically, USD/JPY may see a short-term pullback towards 157.90 before resuming its upward trajectory towards 159.50, with intervention risks remaining a key factor.

The NZD/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the first half of the European session on Friday as traders opt to move to the sidelines ahead of the release of the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The crucial data will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the currency pair.

In the meantime, persistent geopolitical uncertainties and bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a tailwind for the safe-haven USD and cap the NZD/USD pair. However, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) hawkish tilt continues to underpin the Kiwi and helps the NZD/USD pair to hold above the 0.5860 level, or the lower end of its weekly range.

The said area coincides with a horizontal resistance breakpoint and should act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders amid a mixed technical setup. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is ticking slightly negative, which hints at a consolidative tone rather than a strongly trending market.

Nevertheless, the NZD/USD pair maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias and keeps the broader recovery structure intact,  above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. This, in turn, suggests that any further slide is more likely to attract buyers near the 0.5868 area, while the 200-period SMA at 0.5770 reinforces a deeper structural floor if sellers extend a pullback.

On the flip side, bulls might await sustained strength and acceptance above 0.5900 – marking the highest level since early June and the top boundary of the weekly range – before placing fresh bets. The NZD/USD pair might then extend its recent goodish recovery move from the year-to-date low, around the 0.5625 region, touched in June.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

NZD/USD 4-hour chart

New Zealand Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies this week. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.37%0.74%0.07%0.03%0.51%0.54%EUR-0.21%0.17%0.58%-0.13%-0.08%0.31%0.35%GBP-0.37%-0.17%0.04%-0.30%-0.25%0.13%0.18%JPY-0.74%-0.58%-0.04%-0.61%-0.57%-0.14%-0.11%CAD-0.07%0.13%0.30%0.61%0.04%0.48%0.48%AUD-0.03%0.08%0.25%0.57%-0.04%0.37%0.42%NZD-0.51%-0.31%-0.13%0.14%-0.48%-0.37%0.04%CHF-0.54%-0.35%-0.18%0.11%-0.48%-0.42%-0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).

Persistent shifts in sentiment surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement continue to reinforce, rather than eliminate, geopolitical risks. As a result, both crude oil and the US Dollar Index (DXY) have regained ground, with the DXY holding above its 2026 uptrend support near 99.30 and WTI crude remaining firmly above the $70 mark.

The unresolved security framework surrounding the Strait of Hormuz—including future navigation and transit arrangements—remains one of the key obstacles preventing the conflict from transitioning into a durable ceasefire and the full resumption of shipping flows through the strait. Alongside the broader nuclear negotiations that remain central to any lasting resolution, these issues require a long-term political framework before markets can confidently price a sustained geopolitical de-escalation.

As discussed in my previous article, Crude Oil Outlook: What the 1973 Oil Embargo Tells Us About the 2026 Hormuz Crisis, the current environment may resemble historical episodes such as the 1973 oil embargo, when geopolitical uncertainty kept energy risk premiums elevated until durable security and political frameworks were established, supporting decades of stability in global energy markets. Similar conditions have yet to emerge in the 2026 Strait of Hormuz conflict.

The recent market reaction continues to reinforce this intermarket framework:

The Dow Jones was the first major index to rally to fresh record highs before broader equity markets followed, while simultaneously testing a major higher-timeframe resistance zone. Dow Jones Outlook The US Dollar Index (DXY) corrected only to its 2026 uptrend support near 99.30, maintaining its broader bullish structure. DXY Outlook  WTI and Brent crude oil continue to hold above their respective geopolitical risk premium zones near $66 and $70, suggesting markets have yet to fully price a lasting de-escalation. Markets reward trends far more consistently than geopolitical headlines. Headlines may trigger volatility, but sustained trends require confirmation through price action. Current intermarket relationships continue to favor caution. Equity indices are testing major long-term resistance, Bitcoin remains unable to confirm the broader risk-on move, the US dollar continues to respect its 2026 bullish structure, and USD/JPY remains resilient despite persistent intervention risks. Together, these signals suggest that markets continue to price geopolitical uncertainty, elevated Treasury yields, and expectations for a more hawkish Federal Reserve as the dominant macro narrative.

Crude Oil Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

WTI crude oil's latest pullback found support near $72, corresponding with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of July's advance. Persistent US-Iran tensions helped stabilize prices above that level, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.

Price action continues to hold above the $70–72 support zone, maintaining the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices. A sustained move above $77—the multi-month support level from March 2026 that has since turned into resistance—would expose the next Fibonacci extension levels derived from July's advance:

$80.40 – 27.2% Fibonacci extension $83.30 – 38.2% Fibonacci extension $86.50 – 50% Fibonacci extension $89.60 – 61.8% Fibonacci extension, representing a major area where pullback risks may emerge as it aligns with the long-term trendline extending from the lower boundary of the March-June consolidation that preceded July's decline from $93 to $77. Such a move would likely coincide with persistent tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and continued disruptions to crude oil refining and supply chains. A sustained move into the $86.50–89.60 region would suggest markets are pricing another phase of geopolitical escalation, increasing broader market drawdown risks.

Bearish Scenario

Should WTI crude oil fall back below $72, attention would immediately shift to the $68–66.50 support zone.

This area continues to define the broader escalation versus de-escalation narrative for 2026, having repeatedly acted as both support and resistance since 2019. A weekly close below $66.50 would expose the 2026 lows near $55, signalling that markets are beginning to price a longer-term geopolitical de-escalation scenario. Such a development would likely improve global risk sentiment while easing inflationary pressures.

USD/JPY Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale

Source: TradingView

The USD/JPY pullback from the 164.00 confluence zone—a resistance area aligning with both the midpoint of the April 2025–July 2026 channel and the broader 2022–2026 channel—found support near 155.00.

Current support aligns with:

The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025–July 2026 advance. Oversold daily momentum, last seen in 2024. A breakdown below the 2025–2026 ascending channel. Should the current rebound stabilize above 159.50, bullish momentum could return, allowing the pair to retest 161.00, 161.80, and eventually 164.00.

These former support levels may now act as resistance during another test of price levels not seen since the 1980s. A sustained break above 164.00 would expose the upper boundary of the broader channel near 170, following a significant rebuilding of upside momentum.

Conversely, a close below 155.00 would expose the next key support levels at 152.00 and 149.00. This remains a critical region, aligning with the lower boundary of the 2022–2026 channel and defining the longer-term bullish versus bearish outlook for the US dollar—not only against the Japanese yen but across broader financial markets.

The broader outlook continues to favour a bullish bias unless a durable framework governing Middle East shipping routes is established, US Treasury yields begin to decline, and expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening continue to fade.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

Key Points:Friday's U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the week's biggest catalyst for FX markets.Traders are closely watching labor market data for clues on the Fed's September policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing long-term trendline resistance after recent gains.GBP/USD remains above key moving averages but needs a break above $1.3507 to extend higher.DXY is testing major trendline support below 100.00, with payrolls likely to determine the next move.

US Dollar News: Payrolls Countdown and Global Central Banks Shape FX Outlook The U.S. dollar’s value continues to fluctuate in anticipation of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the final significant market mover before all the markets take another look at the Federal Reserve’s overall policy outlook. Focused on NFP, is the most derived initial assessment of the potential impact on U.S. labor markets. A positive U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report, coupled with positive detailed U.S. labor market employment data, will reinforce the viewpoint that the U.S. Federal Reserve will adopt a more accommodating monetary policy stance later this year. Based on the latest Reuters real-time reporting, markets are now primarily focused on U.S. labor market data after last week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

The U.S. dollar is stabilizing following Friday’s European Central Bank meeting in which it kept its main interest rate on overnight deposits at 2.25%, and repeated its data-dependent stance. Investors are now waiting on German industrial production and eurozone retail sales statistics, all of which will give insight into the potential for a recovery in domestic demand within eurozone countries, particularly in light of the first part of the year being subdued. In their recent meetings, various policymakers have continued to underline the fact that inflation is approaching the European Central Bank’s target of 2% and that further tightening of eurozone monetary policy appears to be warranted; although, at this juncture still may be upside risks to be concerned with.

Sterling is digesting last week’s Bank of England decision. Bank Rate was left at 3.75%. Investors are anxious to see what new data will show about the UK economy. In the lead up to this data, investors will be studying data related to labor market activity, consumer spending, and business activity, to get insight on whether easing inflation is sustainable without a sharper slowdown in growth. Alongside the collection of domestic indicators, early Friday’s U.S. payrolls report will remain the major driving force behind foreign exchange sentiment for the week ahead.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Technical Analysis: Dollar Index Tests Trendline Support Below 100.00 Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues dropping, currently trading at 99.76. It has been harshly rejected by 101.52, and has dropped below the psychological 100.00 zone and is currently challenging a key ascending trendline that can be found at 99.42. The index currently sits below the 50-day EMA ($100.38) while just holding above the 100-day EMA ($99.92), reflecting diminishing bullish sentiments. RSI has fallen to 36, moving into oversold territory, indicating that downside price momentum is losing speed.

A decisive break below 99.42 would expose 98.91 and 98.27, reinforcing a bearish outlook. However, if bears defend the trendline, the DXY could stage a recovery toward 100.36 and 100.82. For now, the larger bias remains cautiously bearish while the index trades below 100.00.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Consolidates After Strong Recovery Toward $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The GBP/USD is trading around $1.3459, holding within a consolidation range after rebounding sharply from $1.3274. The pair remains above both the 50-Day EMA ($1.3421) and the 100-Day EMA ($1.3400), suggesting the medium-term trend continues to favor buyers. Price is currently hovering near the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance at $1.3452, while RSI near 57 points to steady but moderating bullish momentum.

A breakout above $1.3507 would reinforce the bullish structure and expose $1.3559. On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.3417, followed by $1.3391 and $1.3363. Holding above the moving averages keeps the recovery intact, although a decisive move above $1.3507 is needed to confirm the next leg higher.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis: EUR/USD Bulls Challenge Major Trendline Resistance EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD pair, on the other hand, has been trying to rebound from its July base, and has been able to move past the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.1501. For the time being, the EUR/USD pair is trying to test a key descending trendline near 1.1559, while trading comfortably above the 50-day EMA ($1.1490) and holding marginally beneath the 100-day EMA ($1.1543). RSI has strengthened to 62, confirming improving bullish momentum. It must be noted, however, that the EUR/USD pair is still trading below the 1.1500 level.

A sustained break below this level would expose the crucial support zone at the 1.1470 level. The critical descending trendline comes into the picture at the 1.1450 level. As long as the EUR/USD pair remains comfortably above the critical descending trendline, around the 1.1450 level, the bias is expected to shift to a bullish bias for the pair.

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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.

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The Canadian Dollar (CAD) trades marginally lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, with the USD/CAD pair edging up to near 1.4023 in the European trading session. The Loonie pair is expected to trade sideways as investors await the labor market data for July from both the United States (US) and Canada.

Investors will pay close attention to both datasets to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy outlook.

US jobs report in focus as Danske Bank sees solid labor backdropAnalysts at Danske Bank highlight that “the most important data release will be the US July Jobs Report,” where they “forecast nonfarm payrolls at +70k, the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.2%, and average hourly earnings at +0.3% m/m s.a.” The bank notes that “most leading data still point towards solid labour market conditions, although weak labour supply growth also weighs on the employment growth outlook,” adding that “the unemployment rate remains the Fed's primary focus.”

The CME FedWatch tool shows a 54.5% chance that the Fed will raise interest rates in the September policy meeting.

Meanwhile, the Canadian labor market report is expected to show that the economy created 15K fresh jobs, slightly lower than 18.2K in June. The Unemployment Rate is seen as steady at 6.5%.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

USD/CAD trades at 1.4023, retaining a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4062. However, the formation of a Bullish Flag chart pattern suggests that the overall trend is still bullish.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 43.1 sits just under neutral, hinting at subdued downside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered between the 20-period EMA at 1.4062 and the channel top at 1.4076; a decisive break above that zone would open the way for an upside move towards 1.4200. On the downside, the lower boundary of the Bullish Flag channel at around 1.3902 will be the key support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Employment FAQs Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.

The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.

The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.

Silver (XAG) continues to follow our Elliott Wave outlook after completing the wave ((iv)) pullback at 60.8514. Buyers have driven the metal higher into the final five-wave advance in wave ((v)). The corrective rally is now entering its final stage. Although the short-term trend remains bullish, the Elliott Wave structure points to limited upside. We expect sellers to return once price reaches key Fibonacci resistance.

The 60-minute Elliott Wave chart shows Silver advancing in wave ((v)) of red wave C, which forms part of a larger wave (B) Flat correction. Fifth waves often extend toward the 1.236–1.618 Fibonacci external retracement of wave ((iv)). That gives an initial target between 63.42 and 64.24. Silver has already reached the 100% Fibonacci extension of wave A. However, buyers could still push prices toward the 161.8% Fibonacci extension near 67.00 before the rally ends.

Our Silver Elliott Wave forecast points to the 62.00–67.00 area as the next major resistance zone. We expect the current bounce to finish within the next 24 hours. After that, sellers should regain control and resume the larger bearish trend.

Overall, Silver remains bullish in the very short term while wave ((v)) continues to develop. Traders should avoid chasing prices into the earlier mentioned resistance zone. Instead, they should watch for signs of exhaustion before positioning for the next move lower.

XAG 60 Min. Elliott Wave Chart

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EUR/JPY halts its three-day winning streak, trading around 182.50 during the early European hours on Friday. The currency cross is retaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds below both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).

The short- and medium-term moving averages now act as layered overhead resistance, hinting at a capped tone while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) Indicator around 39 suggests weak momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.

Yen under scrutiny as Japan and US officials push back on weaknessAnalysts at Scotiabank highlight that "officials (both Japanese and US) remain concerned about the level and path of the Yen, and have been determined to push back on recent weakness." This ongoing vigilance underscores the degree of discomfort with the current USD/JPY trajectory and reinforces the sense that policymakers are closely monitoring the currency’s performance as it drifts back toward post-intervention lows.

Further intervention to support the Japanese Yen (JPY) would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3, followed by the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could find initial resistance at the nine-day EMA of 183.09, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.63. Further advances above these moving averages would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.02%0.00%-0.08%0.07%-0.02%0.06%-0.04%EUR-0.02%-0.01%-0.09%0.07%-0.05%0.02%-0.06%GBP-0.01%0.00%-0.06%0.07%-0.03%0.04%-0.05%JPY0.08%0.09%0.06%0.15%0.05%0.12%0.00%CAD-0.07%-0.07%-0.07%-0.15%-0.10%-0.02%-0.13%AUD0.02%0.05%0.03%-0.05%0.10%0.08%-0.03%NZD-0.06%-0.02%-0.04%-0.12%0.02%-0.08%-0.10%CHF0.04%0.06%0.05%-0.01%0.13%0.03%0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note Gold has retained most recent gains after breaking key resistance, supported by lower Oil, softer yields, central bank and ETF buying and technical factors. Momentum has eased as rebounding Oil revives inflation concerns and lifts US Treasury yields, with Friday’s US payrolls seen as the next test for whether the Gold rally can extend further.

Bullish structure faces data test"Gold retained most of its recent gains, although momentum eased as the rebound in oil revived inflation concerns and pushed US Treasury yields higher."

"The earlier rally was helped by lower oil prices, pullback in yields, USD, news of central bank, ETF purchases and technical buying after prices broke above key resistance."

"Tonight’s payrolls report is the next test. A weaker print could reinforce the recent move by further reducing Fed hike expectations, while a firmer outcome may prompt some profittaking after the sharp rally."

"Daily momentum is mildly bullish but rise in RSI moderated. Resistance at 4333 (23.6% fibo retracement of 2026 high to low), 4389 (100 DMA)."

"Support at 4180 (50 DMA), 4082 (21 DMA)."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

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UOB Group’s Quek Ser Leang highlights that EUR/USD has staged a sharp rebound after drifting sideways, following a decline from January’s high to mid-June’s low. The pair is seen with scope to extend gains, but the analyst stresses that the 1.1560/1.1565 zone, aligned with the daily Ichimoku cloud top and a weekly trendline, is critical resistance, while support is noted at 1.1470 and 1.1445.

Rebound constrained by cloud resistance"EUR/USD rose briefly to 1.2078 in late January before declining to 1.1324 in mid-June. It then drifted sideways until last week, when it rebounded sharply. Given the deeply oversold weekly slow stochastic, the rebound was not surprising."

"While there is scope for EUR/USD to rebound further, it must first surpass the significant resistance at 1.1560/1.1565."

"The upper boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1560 was tested a few times this week but remained intact. The declining weekly trendline from January’s high is currently near 1.1565. Looking ahead, should EUR/USD break and hold above 1.1560/1.1565, it could rise toward 1.1622, the minor peak in June."

"Support is at 1.1470 (current level of the 21-day EMA), followed by the lower boundary of the daily Ichimoku cloud at 1.1445. If EUR/USD breaks below 1.1445, it would mean that the top of the cloud may continue to act as significant resistance for some time."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The USD/JPY pair extends the range play through the Asian session on Friday, stalling this week's solid recovery from its lowest level since May, touched in the aftermath of a joint US-Japan intervention. Spot prices currently trade near the top end of the weekly range, around mid-158.00s, as traders keenly await the crucial US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for a fresh impetus.

In the meantime, persistent geopolitical uncertainties, reviving inflation fears, and bets for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) act as a tailwind for the US Dollar (USD). The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, remains depressed on the back of concerns about Japan's worsening fiscal condition. Moreover, a fall in Japan's Household Spending for the seventh straight month weakens the case for a Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in September, further weighing on the JPY and acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices keep a capped tone near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of a sharp slide from a four-decade high, touched in July. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) now prints in positive territory, hinting at improving short-term momentum on the 4-hour chart. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 suggests a neutral, consolidative backdrop rather than a decisive trend shift, making it prudent to wait for a move beyond the current level before placing fresh bullish bets.

A further move up beyond the 38.2% Fibo., near 158.55, is likely to confront resistance at the 50.0% retracement at 159.61 and the 61.8% level at 160.66, where further rallies could stall. On the downside, initial support appears at the 23.6% retracement at 157.26, ahead of the structural floor near 155.17. A sustained break below 157.26 is likely to open the way for a deeper correction toward that lower zone.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.21%0.29%0.76%0.05%0.17%0.62%0.73%EUR-0.21%0.09%0.58%-0.16%0.06%0.41%0.53%GBP-0.29%-0.09%0.13%-0.23%-0.02%0.32%0.44%JPY-0.76%-0.58%-0.13%-0.64%-0.44%-0.03%0.07%CAD-0.05%0.16%0.23%0.64%0.21%0.61%0.69%AUD-0.17%-0.06%0.02%0.44%-0.21%0.33%0.46%NZD-0.62%-0.41%-0.32%0.03%-0.61%-0.33%0.12%CHF-0.73%-0.53%-0.44%-0.07%-0.69%-0.46%-0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).