UK High Court approves appeal by Chinese victims in the Qian Zhimin case over property rights to more than 60,000 Bitcoin.
According to Caixin, just four days after the UK High Court of Justice ruled that the property rights dispute over more than 60,000 bitcoins in the Qian Zhimin case is subject to Chinese law, around 16,000 Chinese victims participating in the UK asset recovery process have been granted the chance to challenge the ruling further. The UK High Court held a fresh hearing, with the judge approving the Chinese victims’ appeal against the October 12 ruling on applicable law. Lawyers from all parties also discussed issues including litigation costs related to the earlier applicable law dispute, whether the approximately 16,000 individual claimants will continue to pursue their claims, and how to opt out of the proceedings.
6 minutes ago
Analyst: Short-term Bitcoin whales' unrealized profit falls 53%, with over 10,000 BTC transferred to CEX in a single day.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a post that Bitcoin short-term whales’ unrealized profit dropped 53% from a record $9.8 billion on September 22 to $4.6 billion on October 20, though the whales remain profitable. On the same day, whales transferred 10,605 BTC to centralized exchanges (CEXs), the highest single-day volume since October 8, roughly 2.8 times the 3,815 BTC average daily amount over the past 30 days. The decline in unrealized profit does not indicate reduced holdings, nor do transfers to exchanges equal actual sales, but analysts point out that the increased inflow signals a rising potential sell-off risk.
6 minutes ago
Crypto market liquidity crunch: Binance's stablecoin reserves hit their lowest level of the year.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost's data, centralized exchange (CEX) stablecoin reserves have been declining recently, with Binance's stablecoin reserves hitting their lowest level this year. Data shows Binance's stablecoin market capitalization has been on a downward trend since June, dropping approximately 4.7% over the past 90 days. Darkfost also pointed out that the decline in stablecoin reserves is not unique to Binance. This stablecoin outflow dynamic will continue to exert pressure on the market, and the lack of inflowing liquidity is exacerbating the current market weakness. To reverse the situation, the market needs to see capital flowing back into CEXs, which is a sign of demand recovery.
6 minutes ago
Zcash developers confirm the NU7 upgrade will roll out in November, cutting the block time to 25 seconds.
Zcash developers have reached consensus on the NU7 upgrade, set to activate at block height 3,543,405 (estimated around November 5). The upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed. Additionally, 60% of fees collected per block will be removed from circulation, with plans to return these funds to miners starting February 2031, while the original block reward halving schedule remains unchanged in the interim. Furthermore, Zcash’s original privacy protocol Sprout will be permanently shut down after the upgrade; funds not transferred in time will become inaccessible. The proposal was put forward by developer Sean Bowe and approved by the Zcash Improvement Proposal (ZIP) editing team, but it still needs to be formally merged into deployment specifications and integrated into node software before it can officially take effect.
6 minutes ago
US pre-market trading: All three major indices rise, SpaceX surges nearly 9% pre-market, and AI stocks rebound sharply.
Before U.S. stock market opens, all three major index futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.80%. In terms of individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, boosted by strong quarterly results, SpaceX gained nearly 9% to $161.08. Additionally, driven by merger rumors, Tesla rose 2.67% to $383.68. AI-related stocks mostly advanced before the market open: Nvidia was up 1.8%, AMD up 2.5%, Intel up 2.9%, SanDisk up 2.9%, Western Digital up 2.1%, and Seagate Technology up 2.4%. Meanwhile, optical communications and Neocloud-related stocks saw notable gains: Credo (CRDO) jumped over 5.2%, Lumentum (LITE) rose around 3.98%, and CoreWeave (CRWV) gained around 2.95%. For crypto-related stocks, BNB Standard (BNC) surged over 7.8%, and Strategy (MSTR) added around 1.99%.
6 minutes ago
Sources: Bank of Japan will decide at next week's meeting whether inflation has reached the 2% target.
According to Kyodo News, a source familiar with the matter revealed on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will assess whether the underlying inflation rate has hit its 2% target at next week’s policy meeting. A confirmation would mark a symbolic turning point for the BOJ, signaling an end to its long-standing monetary policy stance aimed at combating deflation. The BOJ first set the 2% inflation target in January 2013. Despite implementing aggressive monetary easing programs, the central bank has repeatedly pushed back its timeline for achieving the goal. If the target is ultimately met, it will come nearly 14 years after the target was first introduced.
Kazakhstan's AIFC Court has barred Coinbase, BingX, Bitcoin(.)com, HTX, BitMart and WEEX from offering unlicensed crypto services in the Astana financial centre.
Kazakhstan’s AIFC Court has restricted Coinbase, BingX, Bitcoin(.)com, HTX, BitMart and WEEX from offering unlicensed crypto services within the Astana International Financial Centre. The injunction also covers marketing services and distributing related mobile apps.
The Astana Financial Services Authority (AFSA) said the injunctions cover BingX, Bitcoin(.)com, Huobi Global (HTX), BitMart, Coinbase and WEEX, and prohibit the platforms from offering or marketing unlicensed digital asset services and distributing mobile apps for those services within the center.
What the ruling coversThe Astana International Financial Centre is a financial hub in Kazakhstan's capital that operates under its own legal framework and regulator, and it requires crypto firms to obtain a license to offer services within the center. The order is limited in scope. Justice Sir Stephen Richards specified in a Sept. 15 judgment that the injunctions applied only to the AIFC and users located there. It does not impose a Kazakhstan-wide app ban.
App store operators are also affected. The order binds Google and Apple as app-store operators, though the court declined to issue a separate injunction against them, saying AFSA should first discuss necessary steps with the firms.
AFSA said the court entered judgment by default after the platform operators failed to respond within the required period.
Timeline and regulator's positionAFSA said it warned more than 20 platforms about AIFC rules in 2025. Nine voluntarily restricted app access in the Central Asian country and seven said they intended to seek licenses. The Sept. 15 order named BingX, Bitcoin(.)com, Huobi Global (HTX), BitMart, Coinbase, LBank and WEEX; an amendment three days later removed LBank after its operator blocked access in Kazakhstan.
AFSA said users of unlicensed platforms lack safeguards required of licensed firms, including asset protection, disclosure, complaints handling and dispute resolution. The court emphasized that providing digital asset services without authorization undermines the integrity of the AIFC's regulatory system and creates unfair competition for licensed companies, which must comply with anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing requirements.
AFSA Chief Executive Evgeniya Bogdanova said the decision followed extensive and consistent efforts by the regulator's Supervision and Enforcement teams against unlicensed platforms. Kazakhstan's National Bank oversees digital-asset service providers outside the AIFC.
This is not the first time Coinbase has faced limits in the country. Authorities blocked its website in 2023 over alleged violations of the country's digital asset law.
Sources:
CoinDesk: Kazakhstan court bars Coinbase, five others from unlicensed crypto services in AIFC
Cointelegraph via TradingView: Kazakhstan court orders curbs on Coinbase, BingX and four others
crypto.news: Kazakhstan court orders restrictions on Coinbase, BingX and four others
A $10,000 position in AERO a day ago is worth about $10,609 this morning. The same $10,000 in Bitcoin is worth roughly $10,086. The five-percentage-point gap is modest on its own, but the catalyst behind it is not: Aerodrome and Velodrome, two of the busiest decentralized exchanges in Ethereum’s ecosystem, merge into a single exchange called Aero on October 21, and the market has started pricing the consolidation ahead of the launch.
AERO traded at $0.8614 at 05:01 UTC on October 21, up 6.09% over 24 hours, per CoinGecko data. Bitcoin held $82,718 (+0.86%), Ethereum $2,442 (+1.31%), Solana $105.80 (+0.65%), and XRP $1.33 (+2.15%). The token is still 8% below its October 16 high of $0.9368, so the rally is a recovery rather than a breakout. The launch itself is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on October 21, or 00:00 UTC on October 22, according to the project’s launch update.
Why the Majors Are Pinned in a Box The backdrop for any altcoin call right now is a Bitcoin market that has stopped making decisions. Over the past seven days, BTC has traded between roughly $81,400 and $82,900, a band of barely 2%, while its 24-hour moves have rarely exceeded 1% in either direction. The Federal Reserve’s next policy decision lands on October 28, and rate expectations have done more to set the crypto tape this month than any on-chain development.
That is the regime a macro-minded buyer is working inside: risk assets are waiting on a central-bank date rather than chasing catalysts. Bitcoin’s $1.66 trillion market capitalization is now too large to move fast on a single product announcement. It needs a change in the flow of money, not a change in the news. Altcoins, by contrast, can still re-rate on a discrete, dated event, and that is precisely what the Aero merger offers. We last screened the money angle in our Monero-led privacy trade, where a shrinking float was the driver; here the driver is consolidation of trading volume, not scarcity.
What the Aero Launch Actually Consolidates The merger has been in motion for ten months. Aerodrome and Velodrome — the leading decentralized exchanges on Base and OP Mainnet respectively — announced their combination in late 2025, and the resulting entity now has a final chain list: Base, Ethereum Mainnet, OP Mainnet, Arc, Ink, Robinhood Chain, and Arbitrum. The launch update describes the goal in its own words: “Aero will be the unified liquidity layer for all of Ethereum: one exchange built to power the future of onchain finance.”
The scale argument is specific, not rhetorical. The project states that “the chains Aerodrome and Velodrome serve account for about 17% of EVM spot trading volume. This launch is set to roughly triple that.” Triple from 17% lands near 50% of all EVM spot volume — a target that, if reached, would make Aero the single largest venue in onchain spot trading. The mechanics that carry the claim are Metaswaps for cross-chain trading, Slipstream concentrated-liquidity pools with dynamic fees, and an AER Engine that caps reward emissions against projected revenue.
The Market-Cap Math Between a 2x and a 10x This is where the money angle gets concrete. AERO’s market capitalization sits at roughly $0.85 billion, ranked about 85th. A 2x to $1.7 billion would not require displacing anyone; it would merely lift AERO into the middle of the DeFi token field. A 10x to $8.5 billion is a different proposition — it would make Aero nearly twice the size of Uniswap’s UNI, which carries roughly $4.7 billion, and would demand that the exchange actually capture something close to the 50% volume share its own materials project.
The seven-day chart shows the risk in that arithmetic. AERO peaked at $0.9368 on October 16, slid to $0.7957 by October 20, and has only now clawed back to $0.86. A buyer at the high is still underwater. Compare the Bitcoin side of the same calculation: a 2x on BTC means roughly $165,000, and a 10x means about $827,000 — numbers that require a repricing of the entire macro asset, not the execution of one product roadmap. That asymmetry, smaller base against larger required multiple, is the whole reason a catalyst-driven altcoin can be worth a look while Bitcoin grinds sideways.
Where the AERO Trade Could Break The skeptical case is easy to assemble and worth stating in full. First, the launch is a going-live event, not a proven outcome: the update itself notes that final fixes were still being merged and the full application had yet to enter final quality assurance. A technical stumble on day one would hit the token harder than the anticipation has lifted it. Second, the AER Engine is designed to stream AERO rewards to liquidity providers, which means the token supply is set to expand — a dynamic that can dilute holders even as volume grows. Third, the token is down 5.18% over seven days despite the six-percent daily pop, so the trend is not yet established.
None of this is a reason to dismiss the event, but it is a reason to treat the multiple math as a scenario, not a forecast. The merger gives AERO a real, dated catalyst and a concrete share target; the market will judge by the volume Aero actually routes in its first weeks, not by the launch announcement. A buyer is not paying for the launch, but for the chance that a unified Base-plus-OP venue becomes the default onchain trading rail.
Convert Bitcoin to USD with our live exchange rate calculator.
Frequently Asked Questions What is the Aero merger? Aerodrome and Velodrome, the leading decentralized exchanges on Base and OP Mainnet, are combining into a single exchange called Aero. It launches October 21 at 8:00 p.m. Eastern across seven chains, with the AERO token as its unified asset.
Why is AERO going up today? AERO is up about 6% in 24 hours as the market prices the launch of the merged exchange. The project says the chains it inherits handle about 17% of EVM spot volume and that the launch is set to roughly triple that.
Can AERO reach an $8.5 billion market cap? A 10x from today’s $0.85 billion market cap would require about $8.5 billion, nearly twice Uniswap’s UNI. That depends on the exchange capturing close to its projected share of EVM spot volume, not on the launch announcement alone.
Is Bitcoin a better buy than AERO right now? They are different trades. Bitcoin at $82,718 needs a flow-level repricing to double and has traded in a tight range ahead of the Fed’s October 28 decision. AERO is smaller, more volatile, and tied to a single dated catalyst.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
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Entrepreneur and freelance writer based in Nakuru, Kenya. I cover cryptocurrency, the Blockchain technology, and financial topics. It’s my joy to transform the simplest phrases in a way they reach a reader’s heart to help them discover how crypto is disrupting the world as we have known it. I believe in transforming the world, one word at a time.
Bitcoin has repeatedly found support near $80,000 since Thursday, highlighting the importance of this level as both a psychological and technical threshold for the market. Despite several sharp pullbacks, buyers have managed to keep prices from further declines, though a decisive recovery above resistance remains elusive.
Subdued trading activity limits momentumResistance continues to cap advances around the $83,000 region, and so far, the latest rebounds have not led to a sustained breakout. While there is notable demand near $80,000, the market has not yet shown clear evidence of renewed institutional participation based on price action alone.
Bitcoin trading volume currently stands at $25.5 billion, which represents approximately 1.5% of the asset’s circulating market capitalization. This relatively low trading volume points to subdued participation and may explain the lack of momentum for a more robust recovery.
Market observers suggest that a sustained move above $83,000 would be required to signal that buyers are regaining control rather than simply defending support. Until such a development, the advance remains uncertain.
Wallet accumulation contrasts with ETF withdrawalsOn-chain data from Santiment shows an increase in wallet holdings for a broad group of Bitcoin addresses. Addresses holding between 1 and 100,000 BTC have collectively added about 50,000 Bitcoin so far in October. This accumulation covers both large and mid-sized holders, making it difficult to attribute the activity solely to institutional investors or major whales.
At the same time, demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs has weakened. Data from SoSoValue recorded nearly $80 million in net ETF withdrawals this month, following approximately $2.7 billion in inflows during September. The divergence reflects continued buying by some wallet segments even as ETF investors trim exposure.
It is important to note that changes in wallet balances may also result from transfers or changes in custody, not exclusively new market purchases. This adds another layer of complexity when analyzing accumulation patterns.
Persistent US inflation fears continue to weigh on sentiment, as both the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index for September exceeded market expectations, making the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps less predictable.
Brent crude oil trading above $100 further intensifies inflation concerns. While most analysts expect the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged this month, some uncertainty remains around the possibility of future tightening.
With a relatively light macroeconomic calendar ahead, traders may focus more on technical positioning. However, policy commentary and geopolitical risks could trigger fresh volatility at any time. In a market where outcomes can shift abruptly due to a single Federal Reserve announcement or a major altcoin listing, tools that integrate market monitoring can help mitigate risks. Smart traders are increasingly turning to privacy-focused platforms such as CryptoAppsy to streamline real-time charts, price alerts, curated coin news, and macroeconomic data on one interface, without the need for registration or switching between multiple apps.
Technical outlook: Key levels for BitcoinOn the technical front, the BTC/USD daily chart shows Bitcoin holding above a crucial support zone established over the past few sessions. Prices have rebounded from the latest sell-off and currently trade above $82,700, with critical resistance set at the $83,000-$84,261 area.
A confirmed breakout above this resistance would reinforce the recovery scenario and could bring the $87,000 region into focus for traders monitoring further upside. Bitcoin’s four-hour 200-period Exponential Moving Average also aligns with this price zone, providing additional technical context for those watching for a breakout.
The bullish case hinges on Bitcoin maintaining support at $80,000 and overcoming resistance nearby. However, a sustained break below $80,000 would reverse the recent pattern, increasing the risk of a decline toward $76,000.
While on-chain accumulation suggests some underlying demand, subdued trading activity and ETF outflows leave the current rebound unconfirmed. The market’s response at $80,000 and $84,000 will likely set the tone for Bitcoin’s next significant move.
On-chain analytics company Glassnode reported that Bitcoin (BTC) continues its sideways price movement in the short term and has yet to break through the critical resistance zone between $87,000 and $87,800. According to the company, a breakout from Bitcoin’s current trading range could significantly increase price volatility in the market.
Glassnode, in its analysis published on the social media platform X, noted that the Bitcoin price has recently continued to move within a certain range.
The analysis firm stated that the levels between $87,000 and $87,800 represent significant resistance in terms of short-term price movements.
This price range was also identified as a critical resistance zone in a report jointly published last month by Glassnode and Coinbase Institutional.
According to Glassnode, if Bitcoin breaks through this zone and exits its current sideways movement, market volatility could increase significantly. Such a development could lead to more volatile short-term price movements.
However, the analysis firm reported that additional selling pressure intensified in the region near the $90,000 level.
This suggests that even if Bitcoin breaks above the $87,800 resistance level, the upward movement could encounter a new hurdle around $90,000.
Two key price zones highlighted in the analysis are important for investors to assess the short-term market direction. First, whether the $87,000-$87,800 range can be breached, and then how the selling pressure around $90,000 will be met.
Glassnode’s assessment focuses on the potential for increased price volatility following a breakout, but does not include a prediction of exactly which direction Bitcoin will move.
The market’s reaction to current resistance levels could be decisive in shaping short-term price movements.
*This is not investment advice.
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A major Wall Street firm is including Bitcoin (BTC) in its annual long-term capital market assumptions report for the first time.
JPMorgan Asset Management says it expects BTC to grow 10% per year over the next 10 years, with an arithmetic return of 20.9% and annualized volatility of 55%.
Meanwhile, the firm expects US large cap to surge 7.50%, US small cap to climb 7.70%, and gold to rise 5.50% per year over the same period.
Source: Matt Hougan/JPMorgan Asset Management JPMorgan highlights a big caveat: Bitcoin is still maturing.
“At the moment, we do not make a case for Bitcoin (BTC) as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations. We see Bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing… BTC mostly trades like a high-beta risk asset that tracks global money supply growth, but it is sometimes treated as ‘digital gold.’ Unstable correlations with other assets present a modeling hurdle. A further challenge is forecasting an asset whose fundamentals are not cash flows and whose economics may be as much about adoption, regulation and liquidity as technology.”
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan reacts on X to the development.
“First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you’ll be the best-performing asset of the next decade.”
He added that despite the caveats, it remains notable.
“I know, I know: They have loads of caveats and say the asset is still maturing. Nonetheless, it’s pretty amazing to see.”
The inclusion marks a notable step for Bitcoin in institutional forecasting even as the report emphasizes its evolving status.
Leverage traders continue to bet on a bitcoin rebound despite weak spot purchases. This divergence could amplify a new drop below 80000 dollars, as many long positions would then be exposed to forced liquidations.
In brief
Traders continue to bet on a bitcoin rise despite weak spot purchases.
Leverage positions remain high, with $36.4 billion committed on futures contracts.
The options market shows growing demand for protection against another drop.
The $80,000 threshold becomes decisive, as its breach could trigger forced position liquidations.
The Fed meeting on October 27-28 could influence the bitcoin’s next direction.
Traders remain optimistic despite spot sell-offs
The perpetual futures market shows that bullish bets remain significant. According to Glassnode’s weekly report published on October 19, payments made by long positions increased by 49.4%, from $1.1 million to $1.6 million.
These fees, called funding rates, help keep perpetual contract prices close to the real bitcoin price. When buyers pay sellers, it generally signals stronger demand for positions betting on an increase.
However, several data show that this optimism rests on a fragile structure :
Buyer payments reached $1.6 million ;
Open interest on futures remains high at $36.4 billion ;
Spot sell-offs still exceed purchases ;
Open interest on options has grown to $38.6 billion ;
The cost of protection against a drop has sharply increased ;
The $80,000 threshold remains the main support to defend.
Open interest on futures only fell by 0.3%, compared to $36.5 billion a week earlier. Leverage positions remain numerous despite bitcoin’s recent decline.
This situation does not automatically cause a new drop. However, it increases market sensitivity. If price falls sharply enough, platforms can close long positions whose margin becomes insufficient. These automatic sales may then accelerate the initial movement.
Options reveal increased demand for protection
The options market shows more marked caution. The 25 delta imbalance indicator, which compares the price of bearish protections to that of equivalent bullish bets, rose from 5.2% to 8.6% in one week.
This increase shows investors agree to pay more to protect themselves against a drop. Put options thus become more sought after, even though bitcoin’s daily movements remain relatively moderate.
The gap between anticipated volatility and actually observed volatility also went from -3.8% to +2.1%. The options market now expects stronger future fluctuations than those recently recorded.
This caution is explained by the persistent weakness of spot demand. The Glassnode indicator that measures the gap between aggressive purchases and sales worsened by 24.7%. Its balance dropped from -$67 million to -$83.6 million.
Daily volume has changed little, with a rise from $5.4 billion to $5.5 billion. Activity thus remains stable, but sellers increasingly dominate trading. This development does not confirm a sustainable accumulation capable of supporting leveraged long positions.
Glassnode describes a more defensive market, but not yet subject to extreme fear. The cost of protections rises, without reaching levels usually associated with panic periods.
The 80,000 dollar threshold becomes the main test
Bitcoin trades near $82,596. The $80,000 threshold has already attracted buyers since the October decline, but a new break could quickly change the balance.
Recent holders reinforce this vulnerability. The share of supply controlled by short-term investors rose from 14.5% to 14.7%, above its usual historical range. These actors often react faster to price changes.
The proportion of bitcoins held with unrealized gains also dropped from 70.1% to 68.2%. At the same time, the ratio between realized profits and losses fell from 0.8 to 0.4. Losses thus become more significant compared to gains realized.
A fall below $80,000 could push traders to voluntarily reduce their positions, then trigger forced liquidations if the movement accelerates. Conversely, a rebound supported by genuine spot purchases would reduce this risk.
The Federal Reserve meeting on October 27 and 28 constitutes the next catalyst. A stricter monetary policy could weigh on risky assets. The danger thus does not come only from a bitcoin drop but from the leverage accumulated by traders still waiting for its recovery.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019.
Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Bitcoin has climbed back above $82,000 as a recovery in technology stocks lifted market sentiment, although traders remain divided over whether BTC can break through $85,000.
Summary
Bitcoin recovered above $82,000 on October 21 but remained below resistance around $83,100 and $85,000.
SoSoValue data show $23.16 million in October 20 inflows.
Crypto Rover identified more than $2 billion in potential short-liquidation liquidity between $84,000 and $85,000.
Rekt Capital warned that Bitcoin’s weekly close below $82,200 could lead to further selling.
Daily Bollinger Bands and MACD readings indicate that buyers have yet to establish a sustained recovery.
According to crypto.news market data, the cryptocurrency traded around $82,500 at the time of writing, gaining 1.24% over 24 hours while remaining 1.30% lower for the week.
The recovery followed stronger corporate results and forecasts from major technology companies, including SpaceX and Super Micro Computer. Asian equities advanced Wednesday, with semiconductor-related stocks benefiting from renewed interest in artificial intelligence investments.
Despite the improvement, BTC has struggled to sustain trading above $83,000. The cryptocurrency’s rejection near $88,000 and subsequent retreat below its 20-day moving average have left several resistance levels between its current price and a stronger recovery.
Bitcoin ETF inflows lose momentum after Monday’s rebound
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $526.60 million in net inflows on October 19, their strongest session since September 22.
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust accounted for $665.2 million in inflows that day. Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s GBTC experienced withdrawals of $83.6 million and $54.9 million, respectively, partly offsetting BlackRock’s gains.
On October 20, Bitcoin ETF inflows fell to $23.16 million, bringing cumulative net inflows to $57.43 billion, according to SoSoValue. Total net assets rose from $105.46 billion to $106.28 billion, while daily trading volume declined from $2.09 billion to $1.92 billion.
Bitcoin spot ETF net inflow, source: SoSoValue
October has already produced substantial changes in ETF demand. During October 12–16, Bitcoin investment funds lost $228.4 million, according to weekly cryptocurrency ETF data.
Separate research from Bitfinex found that BTC futures open interest grew 4.3% between October 12 and 15 despite declining prices. As crypto.news reported on October 19, analysts warned that rising leverage during periods of weak spot demand could leave the market vulnerable to liquidations.
Analysts identify $84,000–$85,000 as the next BTC price hurdle
Crypto Rover identified a concentration of potential short-liquidation liquidity between $84,000 and $85,000 in an October 21 market commentary.
According to the analyst, more than $2 billion in short-liquidation liquidity was positioned within the range. The estimate has not been independently confirmed against an underlying liquidation heatmap.
Such estimates represent potential liquidation levels based on derivatives positioning and modeling. They do not establish that $2 billion of contracts will necessarily be liquidated if Bitcoin reaches those prices.
Rover separately suggested that a golden cross could develop on BTC’s chart. The analyst pointed to historical bullish reactions following the indicator, although the post did not specify the moving averages involved or confirm that the crossover had occurred.
Rekt Capital presented a more cautious assessment, identifying BTC’s weekly close below approximately $82,200 as a potential bearish signal.
The analyst argued that a failed attempt to reclaim $82,200 could turn the area into resistance and lead to another decline within BTC’s weekly trading range.
#BTC
Having Weekly Closed below the ~$82200 level, Bitcoin has positioned itself for a post-breakdown bearish retest
If Bitcoin turns ~$82200 into new resistance, price would drop lower within the current Weekly Range
At the moment, Bitcoin is indeed bearish retesting $82200… https://t.co/Pi1drx3A0O pic.twitter.com/O7hz80YaLM
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) October 20, 2026
With BTC moving around $82,500, the market is trading close to the level Rekt Capital identified. Whether the price holds above it on subsequent closes remains relevant to that assessment.
Crypto Lens outlined two speculative price paths involving $75,000, $67,000 and $105,000. Neither represents a confirmed forecast, and the analyst did not establish a timetable for those levels in the supplied commentary.
The immediate resistance area was examined in an October 20 Bitcoin market update, which identified $84,200 as a level traders were watching for a possible recovery from the local bearish structure.
Bitcoin price analysis points to resistance at $83,101
The daily technical readings place Bitcoin near $82,500, below the 20-day simple moving average following a rejection around $88,000.
Bollinger Bands show the middle line at $83,100, the upper band at $86,130 and the lower band at $80,100. The figures establish a relatively narrow distance between Bitcoin’s current trading price and the central resistance level.
A daily close above $83,101 would put BTC back above the middle Bollinger Band. The next resistance levels identified by the chart are $86,126 and the $88,000 zone.
Conversely, renewed selling below $80,076 would bring $78,000 and $76,000 into focus as potential downside levels. Those targets are technical scenarios, not observed trading prices.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator provides another cautious signal. The MACD line stands at 52, compared with a signal line of 268, producing a negative histogram reading of -216.
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: TradingView
Although both MACD lines remain above zero, the negative histogram indicates that momentum has weakened relative to the signal line.
The readings support a mixed technical picture: BTC has recovered some of its recent losses, but the price remains below its central Bollinger Band and previously tested resistance levels.
In a separate macroeconomic assessment supplied for this report, CryptoQuant market commentator nocoffeenobrain compared current bond-yield and equity conditions with episodes in 2018 and 2025, when Bitcoin and U.S. equities experienced selling pressure.
The commentator cautioned that the historical periods involved different economic catalysts and did not establish that the same price developments would occur again.
On October 21, Reuters reported that U.S. Treasury yields remained above 5%, while Asian stocks advanced and financial markets continued assessing corporate earnings, oil prices and borrowing costs.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Swiss regulator FINMA has approved the first individual investor ETF that invests directly in Bitcoin; the fund’s name and issuer have not been disclosed.
The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has approved the first spot Bitcoin ETF to be offered to individual investors in the country. The new product will allow direct investment in Bitcoin and will operate under Swiss investment fund regulations.
Swiss exchanges have previously offered exchange-traded products (ETPs) linked to Bitcoin and Ethereum. However, most existing ETPs were legally structured as debt instruments. The newly approved ETF, however, will be subject to mutual fund regulations. This structure imposes different obligations in terms of custody, operational risks, investor information, and standards of conduct to be applied during the sale.
FINMA stated that Bitcoin has a longer transaction history and a much higher market capitalization compared to most other cryptocurrencies. Citing these characteristics, the regulator granted an exception to the general rule requiring funds to diversify their investments. This allowed the fund to focus directly on Bitcoin instead of spreading its investments across different assets.
The name of the approved fund and the company that will issue it have not yet been announced. FINMA stated that it does not share private information with institutions, but noted that other fund providers have also submitted Bitcoin ETF applications or announced plans to apply. Therefore, the approval does not mean that the product will immediately begin trading on exchanges.
FINMA also stressed that the decision does not eliminate the risks associated with Bitcoin investment. Fund documents will need to clearly explain price volatility, custody issues, and operational risks. According to the regulator, investors could lose a significant portion of their investments due to sharp fluctuations in Bitcoin.
*This is not investment advice.
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Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (NASDAQ:SPCX) held onto all of its Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) during the third quarter, according to the financials released on Tuesday.
SpaceX reported “digital assets” worth $1.57 billion as of Sept. 30, up 42% from $1.1 billion in the previous quarter. Since the beginning of the year, though, the company has taken $64 million in paper losses on the stash.
SpaceX doesn’t publish a detailed breakdown of its cryptocurrency holdings. Its IPO filing did, however, disclose that the company held 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet.
At BTC’s closing price of $83,553.85 on Sept. 30, the total value was in line with SpaceX’s reported digital asset holdings. On-chain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence also confirmed this.
Read Next
Bitcoin in Reserves of World’s Top Tech FirmsThis makes SpaceX the seventh-largest corporate Bitcoin holder, ahead of cryptocurrency-native companies such as Coinbase Global Inc. (NASDAQ:COIN), according to BitcoinTreasuries.net.
Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA), Elon Musk’s other major company, also holds a large Bitcoin position—11,509 BTC, worth over $950 million, according to on-chain data.
SpaceX reported third-quarter revenue of $14.58 billion, beating a Street consensus estimate of $12.74 billion. The space giant posted third-quarter earnings of 35 cents per share, beating estimates of 12 cents per share.
Price Action: As of this writing, BTC is up 1.10% in the last 24 hours to $82,825.46, according to Benzinga Pro.
SpaceX shares jumped 8.06% in after-hours trading, according to Benzinga Pro. The stock closed 0.11% lower at $147.79 during Tuesday’s regular trading session.
SPCX’s price trend remains weak in the short term but strong across the medium and long terms, according to Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings.
Photo courtesy: Samuel Boivin / Shutterstock.com
Market News and Data brought to you by Benzinga APIs
Fred Wilson, co-founder of venture firm Union Square Ventures, says the simplest bet on AI is energy, not tech stocks. After all, natural gas powers most new AI data centers, yet its price has barely moved.
That gap is now sparking debate online. Chip stocks have slumped this month, while the fuel behind the AI buildout still trades near its long-run range.
Why Investors Call Energy the Easier Bet on AIWilson made the case in a short clip shared on X.
“If you really want just a simple way to bet on AI and not have to think about all this other stuff, just bet on energy,”
One investor pushed the idea further. He said copper and power give traders cheap AI exposure, with deep markets and leverage. Still, he added that almost nobody cares.
In fact, copper has set record highs in 2026. Its supply is also tightening as AI demand squeezes copper. Still, softer industrial data from China, the largest copper buyer, has weighed on copper demand.
Tech, by contrast, has struggled. Chip stocks posted eight straight losing days last week, and Goldman named defensive stocks for nervous investors.
What Cheap Natural Gas Means for Investors Funny that basically all AI data centers are being run on natural gas but the cost of NG has been mostly flat or down. $UNL
— Nikita Bier (@nikitabier) October 21, 2026 Nikita Bier, the former head of product at X, raised a related point. He noted that gas runs almost every AI data center, yet its price stayed flat or fell.
The first part is largely true. The US has 1,391 operating data centers, and 2,819 more are planned. Gas makes up nearly 75% of planned on-site US data center power. Nuclear, fuel cells, and batteries supply the rest, giving investors other ways into the same trade.
However, the chart in the post needs context. The United States 12 Month Natural Gas Fund (UNL) holds futures contracts. Rolling those contracts adds costs, so the fund has fallen far more than gas itself.
Planned On-Site Data Center Power by Source. Source: BeInCrypto Meanwhile, the US benchmark, Henry Hub, mostly stayed between $2 and $4 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last decade. Looking ahead, Wood Mackenzie expects it near $5 by 2035 as power demand climbs, World Oil reports.
Therefore, that forecast is the real test for anyone seeking a bet on AI outside tech stocks. The fight for cheap power is also reshaping Bitcoin mining cost math. If gas prices rise, energy producers could capture a larger share of AI spending than chipmakers do today.
Ether ETF outflows continue, pass $1B in October so farUS spot Ether ETFs have shed $1.08 billion so far in October, the biggest monthly outflow of 2026, while Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed after Monday’s spike.
The cash drain from US spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) rolled on as the funds surpassed $1 billion in withdrawals so far in October.
Ether ETFs net outflows totalled $1.08 billion since the start of October after adding $26 million on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue data. The month’s withdrawals erased September’s $832 million in net inflows, leaving year-to-date net inflows at approximately $485 million.
October has already recorded the largest monthly net outflow since November 2025, with eight trading sessions still to go.
Monthly flows in US spot Ether ETFs. Source: SoSoValueThe outflows coincided with Ether’s 9.7% slide in October, from $2,700 to $2,438 at publication. ETH was down nearly 18% throughout 2026, according to CoinGecko.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin ETFs recorded $23 million in net inflows on Tuesday, adding to $527 million on Monday.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded about $67 million in net outflows in October, leaving net inflows for the year at roughly $809 million, according to SoSoValue.
Bitcoin traded at $82,954 at the time of publication, down 2.2% since Oct. 1 and 5.3% year-to-date.
Subscribe to daily byte-sized crypto news from Cointelegraph Subscribe This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
JPMorgan Asset Management forecasts 10% annual Bitcoin ($BTC) returns over the long term versus 5.5% for gold, but flags 55% volatility as a barrier to portfolio use.
J.P. Morgan Asset Management has issued its first long-term return forecast for Bitcoin $BTC, projecting a 10% compound annual return against 5.5% for gold.
Bitcoin forecast versus gold and stocks
The 10% figure is a base case rather than a guarantee.
Volatility keeps Bitcoin out of core modelsVolatility is the main hurdle.
The bank sees room for change. Those factors could support wider institutional use of $BTC.
Sources:
The Block: JPMorgan issues first long-term bitcoin return forecastDecrypt: JPMorgan puts a number on Bitcoin for the first timeBloomberg via Yahoo Finance: JPMorgan Asset Sees Bitcoin Beating Stocks, But With a Catch
UK High Court approves appeal by Chinese victims in the Qian Zhimin case over property rights to more than 60,000 Bitcoin.
According to Caixin, just four days after the UK High Court of Justice ruled that the property rights dispute over more than 60,000 bitcoins in the Qian Zhimin case is subject to Chinese law, around 16,000 Chinese victims participating in the UK asset recovery process have been granted the chance to challenge the ruling further. The UK High Court held a fresh hearing, with the judge approving the Chinese victims’ appeal against the October 12 ruling on applicable law. Lawyers from all parties also discussed issues including litigation costs related to the earlier applicable law dispute, whether the approximately 16,000 individual claimants will continue to pursue their claims, and how to opt out of the proceedings.
5 minutes ago
Analyst: Short-term Bitcoin whales' unrealized profit falls 53%, with over 10,000 BTC transferred to CEX in a single day.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a post that Bitcoin short-term whales’ unrealized profit dropped 53% from a record $9.8 billion on September 22 to $4.6 billion on October 20, though the whales remain profitable. On the same day, whales transferred 10,605 BTC to centralized exchanges (CEXs), the highest single-day volume since October 8, roughly 2.8 times the 3,815 BTC average daily amount over the past 30 days. The decline in unrealized profit does not indicate reduced holdings, nor do transfers to exchanges equal actual sales, but analysts point out that the increased inflow signals a rising potential sell-off risk.
5 minutes ago
Crypto market liquidity crunch: Binance's stablecoin reserves hit their lowest level of the year.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost's data, centralized exchange (CEX) stablecoin reserves have been declining recently, with Binance's stablecoin reserves hitting their lowest level this year. Data shows Binance's stablecoin market capitalization has been on a downward trend since June, dropping approximately 4.7% over the past 90 days. Darkfost also pointed out that the decline in stablecoin reserves is not unique to Binance. This stablecoin outflow dynamic will continue to exert pressure on the market, and the lack of inflowing liquidity is exacerbating the current market weakness. To reverse the situation, the market needs to see capital flowing back into CEXs, which is a sign of demand recovery.
5 minutes ago
Zcash developers confirm the NU7 upgrade will roll out in November, cutting the block time to 25 seconds.
Zcash developers have reached consensus on the NU7 upgrade, set to activate at block height 3,543,405 (estimated around November 5). The upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed. Additionally, 60% of fees collected per block will be removed from circulation, with plans to return these funds to miners starting February 2031, while the original block reward halving schedule remains unchanged in the interim. Furthermore, Zcash’s original privacy protocol Sprout will be permanently shut down after the upgrade; funds not transferred in time will become inaccessible. The proposal was put forward by developer Sean Bowe and approved by the Zcash Improvement Proposal (ZIP) editing team, but it still needs to be formally merged into deployment specifications and integrated into node software before it can officially take effect.
5 minutes ago
US pre-market trading: All three major indices rise, SpaceX surges nearly 9% pre-market, and AI stocks rebound sharply.
Before U.S. stock market opens, all three major index futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.80%. In terms of individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, boosted by strong quarterly results, SpaceX gained nearly 9% to $161.08. Additionally, driven by merger rumors, Tesla rose 2.67% to $383.68. AI-related stocks mostly advanced before the market open: Nvidia was up 1.8%, AMD up 2.5%, Intel up 2.9%, SanDisk up 2.9%, Western Digital up 2.1%, and Seagate Technology up 2.4%. Meanwhile, optical communications and Neocloud-related stocks saw notable gains: Credo (CRDO) jumped over 5.2%, Lumentum (LITE) rose around 3.98%, and CoreWeave (CRWV) gained around 2.95%. For crypto-related stocks, BNB Standard (BNC) surged over 7.8%, and Strategy (MSTR) added around 1.99%.
5 minutes ago
Sources: Bank of Japan will decide at next week's meeting whether inflation has reached the 2% target.
According to Kyodo News, a source familiar with the matter revealed on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will assess whether the underlying inflation rate has hit its 2% target at next week’s policy meeting. A confirmation would mark a symbolic turning point for the BOJ, signaling an end to its long-standing monetary policy stance aimed at combating deflation. The BOJ first set the 2% inflation target in January 2013. Despite implementing aggressive monetary easing programs, the central bank has repeatedly pushed back its timeline for achieving the goal. If the target is ultimately met, it will come nearly 14 years after the target was first introduced.
Somewhere between the 7.5% figure pinned to U.S. large-cap stocks and the 5.5% beside gold, the 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions from J.P. Morgan Asset Management printed a number the document had never carried in its three-decade run: a 10.0% compound annual return for bitcoin over the next ten years. It is the highest forecast in the entire 78-page report, ahead of private equity, real estate, and every public equity and bond class the firm tracks. It also comes with a condition no other asset in the book has to satisfy. Bitcoin still does not make it into the firm’s main covariance matrices — the models that decide what actually ends up in a client’s portfolio.
Released October 19, the 31st edition of the firm’s LTCMAs covers more than 200 assets across more than 20 base currencies, according to J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. The bitcoin entry is new, and so is the shape of the announcement around it: the firm names a return, then spends the following pages explaining why it is not yet comfortable acting on that number.
The Highest Number in the Book The headline comparison is not subtle. Bitcoin’s base case of 10.0% a year sits above U.S. large-cap equities at 7.5%, U.S. real estate investment trusts at 8.2%, private equity at 9.8%, and gold, unchanged at 5.5%. The report states the milestone in its own words: “And for the first time, we put a range on bitcoin returns, though we do not yet include bitcoin in our main covariance matrices.”
The range is wide on purpose. The base case is 10.0%, the bull case 16.6%, and the bear case a negative 11.2% a year. Those figures are a weighted blend of three forecasting frameworks that J.P. Morgan’s authors assembled at 65%, 30%, and 5% confidence respectively. The first, bitcoin supply growth against global money supply, yields 10.7% in the base case, 17.0% in the bull case, and -9.7% in the bear case. The second, the idea that investors rotate into bitcoin to complement gold in a portfolio, yields 10.7%, 17.3%, and -13.3%. The third, network adoption on the Bitcoin blockchain itself, is the sober one: -3.2% base, 6.1% bull, and -19.1% bear.
The numbers are anchored to a spot price of $83,000 as of September 30, 2026, the report’s data cutoff. Read generously, the message is that bitcoin’s supply schedule is doing most of the work, while its actual usage remains the weakest leg of the story.
What 55% Volatility Does to a 20.9% Average The gap that does the damage is between the arithmetic and the compound figure. J.P. Morgan puts bitcoin’s arithmetic average return at 20.9% a year, but its compound base case at only 10.0%. The missing 10.9 percentage points are volatility drag: a gain followed by a loss does not leave you where the simple average says it should, because each loss shrinks the base the next gain builds on. The culprit is an annualized volatility of 55.0%, roughly three times the 18.0% the firm assigns to U.S. large-cap equities and the 17.2% it assigns to gold.
That arithmetic invites a comparison the report stops short of making. Divide each asset’s compound return by its own volatility and bitcoin comes in last, not first. Bitcoin delivers 10.0% for 55.0% of risk, a ratio of about 0.18. Gold delivers 5.5% for 17.2% of risk, a ratio of 0.32. U.S. large-cap stocks deliver 7.5% for 18.0% of risk, a ratio of 0.42. On the only measure that matters to a portfolio builder — return per unit of risk — the highest-returning asset in the book is also the least efficient one.
The compounding picture tells the same story in dollars. Ten thousand dollars left to compound for a decade at bitcoin’s 10.0% base case becomes about $25,900. The same ten thousand at U.S. large-cap’s 7.5% becomes roughly $20,600, and at gold’s 5.5% about $17,100. Bitcoin wins on paper, but an investor has to sit through three times the volatility to collect the extra five thousand dollars.
A Forecast, Not an Allocation The authors of the bitcoin chapter are blunt about what the number does and does not permit. “At the moment, we do not make a case for bitcoin (BTC) as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations,” they write. “We see bitcoin as a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.” The hedging language is deliberate: a forecast is not a recommendation, and a return range is not a seat in the allocation model.
The macroeconomic chapter reinforces the same point. “The volatility and unstable correlation of assets like bitcoin (BTC) remain an obstacle to their widespread inclusion in portfolios,” it states, before noting that the firm nevertheless built a separate, smaller covariance matrix pairing bitcoin against a subset of core assets. That standalone table is the compromise: the data exists, but it sits one layer removed from the matrices that drive actual position sizing.
The distance between the forecast and the portfolio is the story’s real tension. It is one thing for a bank to say an asset will return 10% a year. It is another to buy it. J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s parent, through its funds, has already been moving in that direction on a small scale — its reported bitcoin ETF stake reached $356 million in the second quarter — yet the long-term models stop short of treating bitcoin as a building block. The forecast and the allocation, in other words, are being kept in different rooms.
The Bull Case the Firm Keeps at Arm’s Length None of this means the report is dismissive of bitcoin. The bull case of 16.6% a year is the best outcome the firm models, and the context it supplies argues that adoption is real rather than rhetorical. The report sizes the entire crypto asset class at more than $2.5 trillion, roughly the value of the Swiss stock market or the whole private credit market. Tokenized money market funds alone it values near $40 billion, “with scope for rapid growth.”
The institutional plumbing is the quieter part of the case. The chapter lists exchange-traded funds, futures, publicly traded crypto companies, options, and bank-grade custody as the infrastructure now making the asset investable. Around a tenth of family offices surveyed for J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s 2026 Global Family Office Report said their portfolios already held crypto, and 17% planned to prioritize it. BlackRock has been building on the same rails — it filed for its third bitcoin ETF, this one with downside protection, in October — and that demand is precisely the tailwind the report’s bull case leans on.
What the report declines to do is convert that momentum into a strategic case. Bitcoin “lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains,” the chapter concludes. That is a narrower claim than the 10% headline suggests, and it is worth reading the two sentences together.
What Would Change J.P. Morgan’s Mind The report names its own conditions. “Although we think it is premature to create a 10-year forecast for bitcoin or to integrate it into our covariance matrices,” the chapter says, “examining its potential range of outcomes is instructive.” The word “premature” is doing the analytical work here: this is a first pass, not a final position.
For the position to change, three things would have to move. Correlations with other assets would need to stabilize, so that bitcoin stops behaving like a high-beta equity that occasionally resembles digital gold. Volatility would need to come down from 55%, since the drag it imposes is the single largest reason the arithmetic return collapses by more than half. And regulatory clarity would need to improve, which the report lists alongside market depth, liquidity, and price discovery as the factors that would “aid in its evolution.”
Until then, the guidance is precise rather than vague: “exposures to BTC should continue to be scrutinized carefully and portfolios with any allocation stress tested thoroughly against both bull and bear cases for BTC returns.” It is a forecast with guardrails, which is exactly what a first number from a firm of this size should be.
The result is a document that does two things at once. It tells the market that bitcoin, at 10.0% a year, is the highest-returning asset it can name over the next decade. And it tells its own portfolio managers that the number is not yet a reason to buy. The next editions of the LTCMAs — and whether bitcoin migrates from the standalone matrix into the main one — will reveal which half of that sentence the firm actually believes.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Convert Bitcoin to USD with our live exchange rate calculator.
The firm’s 2027 long-term return outlook gives bitcoin a range of outcomes for the first time, while its authors call BTC a speculative asset that does not yet work as a diversifier.
JPMorgan sees bitcoin outperforming stocks
Posted October 21, 2026 at 5:00 am ET.
JPMorgan Asset Management has attached a return range to bitcoin for the first time, projecting a base case of 10% a year for BTC over the next decade while concluding that the asset still has no settled place in a balanced portfolio.
The projection sits in the firm’s 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the 31st edition of an annual report that sets return expectations for more than 200 assets over a 10- to 15-year horizon, using data as of Sept. 30, 2026. Besides the base case, the report gives bitcoin a bear case of -11.2% and a bull case of 16.6%, both annualized.
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How the Range Was Built The authors blended three models and weighted them by confidence. A model comparing bitcoin’s four-year supply cycle with growth in dollar and global money supply carries 65% of the weight. Another 30% rests on investors treating bitcoin as a complement to gold, and 5% on usage of the Bitcoin network, the only model with a negative base case, at -3.2%. The inputs start from a spot price of $83,000.
In a standalone table pitting bitcoin against core dollar assets, the 10% base case is the highest figure listed. JPMorgan projects U.S. large caps at 7.5%, U.S. small caps at 7.7%, the U.S. aggregate bond index at 5.6%, U.S. high yield bonds at 6.6% and gold at 5.5%. The same table puts bitcoin’s annualized volatility at 55%. Bitcoin is not part of the firm’s main covariance matrices, which feed its portfolio models.
‘A Speculative Asset’ The bitcoin section’s authors, portfolio manager Sheena Shah and Dennis Cristallo, head of digital asset strategy at JPMorgan’s Global Private Bank, wrote that they “do not make a case for bitcoin (BTC) as a diversifier in portfolios due to its unstable market correlations.” They described it as “a speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing.”
“As yet, it lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains,” they wrote.
They wrote that “it is premature to create a 10-year forecast for bitcoin” and said mapping out the possible outcomes “is instructive.” Bitcoin’s portfolio utility “may improve in the future” if correlations stabilize and volatility declines, they wrote. Until then, they advised that portfolios with any bitcoin exposure be “stress tested thoroughly against both bull and bear cases for BTC returns.”
The report pointed to growing investor interest, noting that crypto is now worth more than $2.5 trillion and that about a tenth of clients surveyed for J.P. Morgan Private Bank’s 2026 Global Family Office Report held crypto.
Related Listen: A Technical Strategist Sees Opportunity in Bitcoin’s Quiet Market
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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a post that Bitcoin short-term whales’ unrealized profit dropped 53% from a record $9.8 billion on September 22 to $4.6 billion on October 20, though the whales remain profitable. On the same day, whales transferred 10,605 BTC to centralized exchanges (CEXs), the highest single-day volume since October 8, roughly 2.8 times the 3,815 BTC average daily amount over the past 30 days. The decline in unrealized profit does not indicate reduced holdings, nor do transfers to exchanges equal actual sales, but analysts point out that the increased inflow signals a rising potential sell-off risk.
For more than ten years, 6,000 bitcoins linked to an Irish drug dealer seemed partly lost forever. Yet, on October 20, a new transaction reignited attention around this forgotten fortune. A wallet associated with Clifton Collins transferred 500 BTC, about 41.52 million dollars, to Coinbase Prime. This operation is part of a series of movements that raise questions about the fate of the funds and the missing private keys.
In brief A wallet linked to Clifton Collins transferred 500 BTC, or 41.52 million dollars, to Coinbase Prime. This fortune comes from a reserve of 6,000 BTC accumulated at the end of 2011 and early 2012. Collins is said to have lost access to his bitcoins after the disappearance of the private keys hidden in a fishing rod case. The October 20 transfer marks the fifth 500 BTC operation linked to this fortune since early 2026. A 41.52 million dollar transaction after ten years of inactivity On October 20, a wallet linked to Clifton Collins transferred 500 BTC to Coinbase Prime, Coinbase’s institutional trading platform. The blockchain analysis company Lookonchain reported this operation, which represents approximately 41.52 million dollars. This movement comes after more than a decade without any apparent activity on the concerned funds. It thus draws attention to a fortune long considered inaccessible.
These 500 units come from a batch of 6,000 bitcoins that Collins had accumulated at the end of 2011 and early 2012. At that time, the bitcoin price was only a few dollars. The value of this reserve later increased significantly with the market. However, Collins is said to have lost access to his funds after the disappearance of the private keys that enabled control.
This transaction is not an isolated event in this case. Indeed, several transfers of 500 BTC linked to this fortune have occurred during 2026. The Irish authorities have also recovered several portions of these assets. The new movement to Coinbase Prime thus raises questions about how the funds became accessible again.
How Clifton Collins allegedly lost access to his bitcoin fortune A former beekeeper in Dublin, Clifton Collins reportedly built his reserve through cannabis cultivation. Given the rise in the value of his holdings, he sought to better protect his funds against hacking risks. To do this, Collins divided his 6,000 Bitcoins into twelve distinct wallets. Each contained exactly 500 units, according to the account of this story.
Collins is said to have printed his private keys on an A4 sheet. He reportedly hid this document in the aluminum cap of a fishing rod case. This object was in a house he rented in County Galway. This storage method thus relied on the physical preservation of an essential item for accessing the funds.
In 2017, the Irish police arrested Collins after they found cannabis in his car. He was later sentenced to five years in prison. During his incarceration, burglars emptied the apartment he rented and his personal belongings ended up at the local dump. The case that allegedly contained the private keys disappeared, potentially depriving Collins of access to his reserve.
Irish authorities recover several 500 Bitcoin batches In March 2026, the Irish Criminal Assets Bureau (CAB) announced that it had gained access to a wallet containing 500 Bitcoins. Europol’s European Cybercrime Centre aided this operation. It indicated that some funds linked to Collins could still be recovered. However, available information does not specify how each wallet became accessible again.
Recoveries continued in the following months. At the end of May, the authorities seized an additional 500 BTC, then another batch of the same size in July. On August 28, 500 more BTC, valued at about 39.56 million dollars, were transferred to Coinbase Prime. These operations progressively changed the status of a fortune long associated with the loss of private keys.
The October 20 transfer thus represents the fifth operation this year concerning a 500 BTC batch from wallets linked to Collins. Nevertheless, the observed movements alone do not establish that the entire 6,000 BTC is now accessible. They also do not specify who currently controls each concerned wallet. Monitoring upcoming transactions will provide deeper understanding of the evolution of this asset recovery.
The new transaction thus highlights again the fate of this bitcoin reserve, built more than ten years ago. If recoveries continue, an increasing share of funds could leave inactivity and join institutional platforms. However, the fate of other wallets remains uncertain. Upcoming transfers will be critical to measure the real extent of the recovered assets and clarify the fate of this fortune.
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The new official @XRP account on X, jointly managed by Ripple and the XRP Ledger Foundation, passed 100,000 followers within hours of launch, according to crypto media reports.
The new official @XRP account on X is drawing one of the fastest follower surges in crypto. According to @jacqmelinek, it took only 6.5 hours from her posting the question "how fast can the new $XRP account hit 100k followers" for the account to pass that milestone. Managed by @Ripple and the XRP Ledger Foundation, the page has given the XRP community a long-awaited official voice.
A first official account after 14 yearsThe @XRP account went live on October 19.
Before the launch, the community relied on informal channels.
Follower growth and what it meansEarly follower counts varied depending on when they were captured.
The surge points to sustained engagement from the XRP Army, the term used for the token's large retail community, in 2026. It is also a notable result for an account that, per Bitcoin.com, is run by a company and a nonprofit foundation rather than by a fan page.
The launch is unlikely to change how the network operates. Some in the community have read the timing as a signal of coming news.
SourcesCCN: XRP finally gets its own official X accountBitcoin.com News: 111K followers showed up overnightCaptainAltcoin: XRP gets its own official X account
XRP withdrawals are shifting toward smaller transfers, changing how tokens move across exchanges.
On Binance, XRP withdrawals of less than 10,000 XRP moving through the exchange grew from 3% to 19.7% over the period between September 30th and October 20th.
Meanwhile, the number of exchanges where token moves were made for amounts exceeding one million XRP dropped from 60% to 38.6%. Coinbase recorded a steeper decline, with large-transfer shares dropping from 43% to 12.5%.
While this shift reflects declining whale dominance in exchange transactions, it highlights a slowdown in large-holder transfers rather than active retail-led accumulation.
Source: CryptoQuant As reserves continue to grow, there will be more potential XRP available to sell, and if demand to sell increases, it could negatively affect the price of XRP. However, it will ultimately be determined by exchanges’ outflows and reactions to those outflows in terms of pricing.
While smaller XRP withdrawals have gained share across exchanges, whale activity shows a deeper decline in large-holder movement.
Since February 2025’s peak at $3.5 billion when XRP was trading near $3.3, Binance’s 90-day average whale outflow has plummeted to $49.7 million, its lowest value since October 2021.
Therefore, it seems whales are now transferring fewer XRP off Binance, and possibly lower accumulation interest exists for XRP at current prices.
Source: CryptoQuant Unless whales start showing renewed interest in purchasing XRP, it will be challenging for XRP to maintain past recoveries, especially considering growing reserve totals.
However, without continued whale-sell-outflow volume, this does not mean that additional declines are inevitable. Should prices become attractive enough again, whale-buying activity could signal a change in market trend direction.
XRP supply share rebounds XRP’s whale outflows remain subdued, but Binance supply share is recovering, raising fresh concerns about potential selling pressure.
In October, supply share had fallen to 2.49 before rebounding to 2.66. This indicates that Binance presently holds a larger share of XRP supply, thereby providing an even larger pool of available tokens for traders.
On the other hand, daily XRP-Ledger transaction counts have grown by approximately 14.78%, totaling roughly 2.49 million. Transaction growth occurred after relatively strong levels of transactions existed during late August and early September.
Source: CryptoQuant Still, increased transaction counts do not confirm the directionality of either purchases or sales. Therefore, should the exchange supply continue to grow and XRP become weaker, sellers will likely take advantage and create an increased influence upon markets.
Yet, prolonged levels of high network activity combined with subsequent price recoveries would suggest improved demand and better overall participation within markets.
Final Summary Ripple [XRP] exchange reserves rose by 120 million tokens as smaller withdrawals gained share, increasing potential selling pressure.
XRP whale outflows fell to a five-year low of $49.7 million, while rising Binance supply could limit recovery without stronger demand.
Ripple has endorsed the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) proposed 'Regulation Crypto Assets', calling on the U.S. regulator to massively change the way cryptos are regulated in the country.
On October 20, the blockchain firm sent a comment letter to the regulator, encouraging the SEC to go ahead with the proposed regulation. They believe that the regulatory uncertainty and policymaking through enforcement for many years have driven innovation in the crypto space abroad.
Ripple's Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty shared the development on X. He highlighted that the SEC already has the legal authority to go ahead with the proposed regulation.
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"We are for this proposal. The SEC clearly has the authority to do it," Alderoty wrote.
He also voiced concerns about the 'case-by-case' approach of 'coin-by-coin' enforcement that the regulator had used for so long. Ripple, therefore, says there is a need for a clear set of rules to provide legal clarity to the industry.
The SEC proposed regulationIn August, the U.S. regulator revealed its proposal to introduce two exemptions to the usual securities registration rules. The first exemption would be applicable to qualifying cryptocurrency projects to raise up to $5 million over a four-year period. Meanwhile, the second exemption would allow up to $75 million to be raised each year.
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Also, the proposed regulation will introduce a conditional safe harbor for digital assets that have ceased to be investment contracts.
Key arguments from Ripple One of the central arguments from Ripple in the 20-page comment letter is related to the difference between the cryptocurrency itself and the investment contract through which it is sold.
According to Alderoty, the proposed regulation follows the rule set by the Supreme Court's historic Howey decision.
The proposed rules suggest that a cryptocurrency does not necessarily have to remain within the scope of securities regulations for life. It all depends on the sale of the cryptocurrency within the investment contract.
It depends on the specific promises made by the issuer. The obligations may no longer apply.
Another important topic that Ripple strongly criticizes is the idea of using the decentralization feature as a core factor in determining whether a cryptocurrency is a security.
Ripple has expressed its support for the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s proposed ‘Regulation Crypto Assets’, advocating for sweeping changes to how digital assets are overseen in the United States. The blockchain company reaffirmed its stance by submitting a detailed comment letter to the SEC, encouraging the agency to proceed with the long-anticipated regulatory reforms.
Ripple calls for regulatory clarityRipple highlighted that prolonged regulatory uncertainty and the SEC’s history of policymaking through enforcement actions have prompted a significant shift of crypto innovation to jurisdictions outside the US. The firm emphasized the need for a more predictable and transparent regulatory landscape to foster domestic growth in the sector.
Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty shared the company’s support on X, noting that the SEC possesses both the legal authority and the responsibility to introduce the new framework. Alderoty pointed out the drawbacks of a case-by-case enforcement approach, stating that a clear and consistent set of rules is necessary for market participants to operate with confidence.
Ripple emphasized that the SEC already holds the authority to implement comprehensive crypto regulations and called for an end to piecemeal, coin-by-coin enforcement. The company urged the commission to establish clear guidelines, which they say are vital for the growth and legal certainty of the US crypto industry.
Details of the SEC’s proposalIn August, the SEC introduced a proposal that includes two major exemptions from standard securities registration procedures. The first exemption would permit qualifying crypto projects to raise up to $5 million over four years, while the second would allow annual fundraising up to $75 million. These exemptions aim to reduce barriers for legitimate projects and encourage compliance.
The draft regulations also present a conditional safe harbor for digital assets that are no longer considered investment contracts. This measure intends to provide a pathway for some tokens to transition out of securities oversight once they meet specific criteria, further aligning the policy with established legal precedents.
Interpretation of legal precedents and decentralization debateRipple’s 20-page comment letter underscores the legal distinction between a cryptocurrency as an asset and an investment contract through which it may be sold. Alderoty referenced the Supreme Court’s landmark Howey decision, which set the standards for determining what constitutes a security.
The proposed SEC rules suggest that a cryptocurrency’s status as a security could change over time, depending on whether it continues to be sold as part of an investment contract involving future promises by the issuer. If these obligations lapse, the asset might no longer fall under securities regulation.
A further concern raised by Ripple relates to the heavy emphasis on decentralization as a determining factor in classifying tokens as securities. The company argued that decentralization alone should not serve as the primary benchmark for regulatory decisions, citing risks of subjective assessments and inconsistent outcomes.
With regulatory dynamics evolving quickly, industry observers increasingly stress the importance of closely monitoring both technical and market developments. In the meme token market, for example, viral trends can rapidly attract significant capital. Fomo App reported that a trader’s $99 entry into “Niu Lai” transformed into approximately $370,000, exemplifying the volatility and opportunity in this segment. Monitoring not just price movements but also investor behavior and token selections has gained new relevance, and platforms like Fomo App integrate token discovery, social feeds, rankings, and real-time trade notifications to keep investors informed about market activity.
Ripple is urging the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to finalize its proposed crypto rules, arguing that clear regulations are needed to protect investors and keep innovation in the United States.
Ripple Chief Legal Officer Stuart Alderoty said the company supports the proposal, but stressed that the industry needs clear rules instead of years of case-by-case enforcement.
Ripple Backs SEC Proposal but Seeks End to Case-by-CaseOn October 20, Ripple filed a comment letter supporting the SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets. Alderoty said the agency has clear authority to adopt the rules and called for a clearer approach to digital asset regulation.
“We support the proposal, and the SEC has clear authority to adopt it.”
He said that years of case-by-case enforcement have pushed crypto innovation overseas. Ripple wants rules that follow existing laws and clearly explain when a digital asset falls under securities laws.
Alderoty also noted that a token is not automatically a security just because it was sold through an investment contract. Under the Howey test, the focus should be on the promises made by the issuer and whether those commitments have ended, rather than using decentralization as the main test.
1/ Today Ripple filed its comment letter on the SEC’s proposed Regulation Crypto Assets. We support the proposal, and the SEC has clear authority to adopt it.
2/ Years of “case by case, coin by coin” enforcement has pushed innovation offshore. We need holistic rules for digital…
— Stuart Alderoty (@s_alderoty) October 20, 2026 Ripple Points to Its $150 Million Legal BattleRipple’s push for clearer rules comes after its long legal battle with the SEC. Alderoty said the company spent more than $150 million seeking legal clarity, adding, “No company should have to do that to learn what the law requires.”
He believes clear rules would help companies understand their legal duties without facing years of costly court battles. Alderoty said that a clearer framework could attract investment, protect investors, and help keep crypto innovation in the U.S.
SEC Proposal Offers Two Fundraising ExemptionsThe SEC introduced its proposed Regulation Crypto Assets in August. It includes two possible exemptions for qualifying digital asset investment contracts.
Under the SEC proposal, eligible startups could raise to $5 million over four years through one exemption. Another would allow offerings of up to $75 million within 12 months, subject to additional disclosure and financial reporting requirements.
The proposal also includes a safe harbor to help determine when an issuer has fulfilled its original promises and a token is no longer linked to an investment contract.
Ripple supports this approach but wants a more reliable process for exchanges, brokers and other market participants.
Other Crypto Groups Join Ripple’s PushRipple is not alone. A group including Chainlink, Hedera, Stellar, Aptos, Avalanche and Cardano has also submitted a joint letter calling for clearer rules, including recognition of digital commodities in the rule text.
The SEC is now reviewing industry feedback. Although the main comment period ended on October 20, the supplied information says the regulator is expected to continue accepting comments as it considers changes before a final commission vote.
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CryptoInsightUK has questioned whether XRP is preparing to significantly expand its marketing efforts following the recent debut of a new website and the launch of the official @XRP account on X.
New website and @XRP handle mark coordinated pushThe simultaneous unveiling of both the website and dedicated social media handle has drawn attention within the cryptocurrency community. CryptoInsightUK highlighted these developments as potential indicators of a coordinated strategy to boost XRP’s public profile.
Unlike prior communications that largely targeted industry insiders or focused on technical aspects, the recent initiatives seem to prioritize reaching a broader audience. The @XRP account serves to distance the digital asset’s identity from Ripple, the fintech company behind its development, and from the XRP Ledger blockchain. This relatable branding could help convey information about XRP in a way that is easier for everyday consumers to understand, without relying exclusively on Ripple’s corporate voice.
A new ripple:native website has launched alongside the @XRP handle on X. This timing has prompted questions about whether significant marketing efforts for XRP are forthcoming.
Promotional content targets mainstream adoptionA promotional video shared by @XRP depicts a casual conversation about the benefits of cryptocurrency, emphasizing its ease of use and comparing it to “money that moves as fast as the internet.” The video features individuals expressing curiosity and skepticism about crypto, followed by scenes showing young children comfortably engaging with digital technology. By avoiding technical jargon and focusing on everyday scenarios, the campaign appears tailored for viewers who are unfamiliar with the cryptocurrency industry.
Observers note this approach as a considerable shift from previous campaigns addressed primarily to financial institutions and established blockchain enthusiasts. The strategy underscores the rising importance of mainstream communication as digital assets seek wider acceptance.
Uncertainty remains over scale of initiativeCryptoInsightUK has not confirmed whether these launches are the prelude to a larger advertising push or a limited marketing experiment. No details have been released regarding specific campaign budgets or a scheduled rollout of additional promotional material. The analyst’s perspective is shaped largely by the timing and coordinated nature of the launches.
If future announcements or a continued stream of mainstream-oriented content emerge from the @XRP account, the scale and intent behind these branding steps will become clearer in the coming weeks. Until then, market participants are watching closely for any further moves, recognizing the potential for such campaigns to influence public and investor sentiment.
The recent initiatives by XRP mark a notable effort to distinguish the digital asset’s brand and reach audiences unfamiliar with blockchain technology, opening the door to potential market expansion.
With market dynamics often shaped in seconds by announcements such as a major Federal Reserve decision or a new altcoin listing, the need for streamlined information has grown. Investors increasingly turn to privacy-oriented platforms like CryptoAppsy, which combine live charting, tailored price alerts, coin-specific updates, and key macroeconomic data into a single dashboard—without requiring account registration—helping traders keep up with rapid shifts across the industry.
XRP could see stronger buying pressure if large investors enter the market while the number of tokens offered for sale remains low. An analysis of 64 crypto exchanges found around 225 million XRP listed for sale at prices from the current market level up to $5.
The study covered 171 trading pairs, including XRP/USD, stablecoins, euros and other currencies. It found that the amount of XRP available to buy on exchanges is much smaller than the total held in exchange wallets.
Billions of XRP Held on Exchanges Are Not for SaleThe analysis estimated that around 35 million XRP was listed for sale within 2% above the market price. Meanwhile, buyers had placed orders for around 44 million XRP within 2% below the price.
Across all exchanges, approximately 225 million XRP was listed for sale up to $5. On selected major exchanges, the figure was around 100 million XRP. Binance held around 2.6 billion XRP in its wallets, but only 2.8 million XRP was listed for sale within 2% of the market price.
The difference is that exchange wallets hold tokens belonging to customers who may not want to sell. Only tokens that traders have offered for sale appear in the exchange’s listed orders.
These figures show the orders visible when the research was conducted. The amount available can change as traders add or remove their sell orders.
How Large XRP Purchases Could Affect the PriceIf a large investor buys more XRP than sellers have offered at current prices, the buyer may have to pay higher prices to purchase the remaining tokens.
The researcher used a hypothetical $1 billion purchase to explain this possibility. Based on the study’s figures, such a purchase could buy all the XRP listed for sale up to $5. However, this does not mean XRP will reach $5, as the number of sellers and available tokens can change.
Large investors may also buy XRP through private deals rather than directly through exchanges. These deals can help them purchase large amounts without placing all their orders on public markets.
Arthur Britto’s XRP Wallet TransfersAccording to wallets linked to Arthur Britto, one of the architects of the XRP Ledger.
XRPScan labels 12 wallets associated with Britto that collectively hold around 1 billion XRP. The researcher highlighted an 80 million XRP transfer in November 2024, followed by transfers through wallets reportedly funded by Ripple before the tokens reached Bitstamp.
some of these tokens could be connected to Ripple’s On-Demand Liquidity service, which uses XRP to facilitate cross-border payments.
However, the transfers do not confirm that the tokens were used for payments or sold. Public blockchain records show where tokens move, but they do not always reveal why the transfers occurred or what happened after the tokens reached an exchange.
Brad Garlinghouse Explains What Drives XRP ValueRipple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has linked XRP’s value to supply and demand. He said:
“Price is very simple. Supply demand.”
Garlinghouse has also highlighted the role of liquidity and the use of XRP in payments. Greater use by financial institutions could increase demand, but the effect on price would depend on how much XRP they need and how the market responds.
XRP has a maximum supply of 100 billion tokens. However, the amount available for sale depends on how many holders are willing to sell at a given price.
Evernorth reported holdings of around 473 million XRP. Tokens held by large investors or treasuries may remain outside the market for a period, but their impact on available supply depends on whether those holders decide to sell or use them.
The study shows that the amount of XRP listed for sale can be much smaller than the total held on exchanges. Whether this leads to higher prices will depend on future buying demand and how many holders are willing to sell.
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Investment Disclaimer:All opinions and insights shared represent the author's own views on current market conditions. Please do your own research before making investment decisions. Neither the writer nor the publication assumes responsibility for your financial choices.
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XRP is trading near $1.34 on the daily chart, and a death cross is close. The 50-day EMA is moving down toward the 200-day EMA, and both lines now sit around $1.37 to $1.38. Price is sitting right on top of them. This is the key area to watch.
The nature of the death crossA death cross occurs when a short-term average falls below a long-term one. Many traders see it as a signal of more downside, but it is a lagging signal. It shows what price already did, not what it will do next. That is why the cross is not final yet.
XRP/USDT Chart by TradingViewLook at how the chart got here. XRP jumped from about $1.00 in August to a high near $1.70. After that, it moved sideways for weeks, then lost momentum in early October. Price fell from the $1.50 area to a low near $1.26. This drop pulled the 50 EMA down and pushed it near the 200 EMA.
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Now there are early signs of a bounce. The latest daily candle is green and closed near $1.34, well above the recent low. Volume has been small during the pullback, which means sellers are not pushing hard. The RSI is near 40 and beginning to turn up from a low area, so selling pressure is easing.
What's the bulls' plan?The plan for bulls is simple. XRP needs to move above both the 50 EMA and the 200 EMA and hold there. If price closes above $1.38 and stays above it, the averages will stop falling and flatten out. The cross could then fail to complete, and the signal would be cancelled. A strong close above $1.40 would make this scenario even stronger, and it would open the way back toward $1.50.
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The risk remains real. If XRP gets rejected at the EMAs and falls under $1.30, the death cross is likely to finish. The next support is the recent low near $1.26. A break below that level could point to $1.20 and lower.
For now, the picture is balanced. The cross is close but not done. Price is testing the exact area that decides the outcome. A bounce and a clean move above the 50 and 200 EMAs could stop the death cross from forming. Failing to do so could give bears control. Watch the daily close around $1.38 for the answer.
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A clearer way to read XRP predictions
Many XRP predictions rely on one strong assumption: that a liquidity shock, regulatory win, institutional adoption story, or cycle-wide crypto rally will push price dramatically higher. Other forecasts focus on downside risks, including weak demand, failed breakouts, leverage unwinds, and broad market selloffs. Both can sound convincing when viewed alone.
This analysis helps you compare the assumptions behind each view. For example, if liquidity on Binance is reported at multi-year lows, the useful takeaway is not simply “price rebound.” Thin liquidity can amplify buying pressure, but it can also worsen downside if sellers dominate. Recent reporting has made that caution explicit: low liquidity is not automatically bullish or bearish. (finance.yahoo.com)
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This article was automatically generated using Dow Jones technology. Major cryptocurrencies were mixed at 10 a.m. London time, with Avalanche seeing the biggest move, dropping 1.0% to $9.67. Sui shed 0.3% to $1.03, and Dogecoin shed 0.2% to 8 cents. Solana declined 0.2% to $106.48, while Tronix was flat at 0.0 % to 33 cents.
Ethereum increased 0.2% to $2,450.40. Cardano climbed 0.3% to 22 cents, and Bitcoin climbed 0.5% to $83,136.80. XRP increased 1.0% to $1.35. Data source: Dow Jones Market Data, Kraken (END) Dow Jones Newswires 10-21-26 0500ET Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
CNBC host Jim Cramer told a young investor he prefers gold bullion to Bitcoin (BTC) for insuring a portfolio. However, he did not dismiss Bitcoin entirely and named two cryptos he calls ‘vetted.’
The split verdict came on Mad Money, where Cramer spent an episode laying out his investing rules. Meanwhile, he warned against low-quality tokens in the same show, leaving gold as his hedge and two coins as exceptions.
Why Does Jim Cramer Prefer Gold to Bitcoin?A caller named Jacob said he had spent much of his investment money on a home down payment. He asked how to rebuild.
Cramer advised splitting new money evenly between index funds and five stocks the caller likes.
He added that Bitcoin or gold could insure that mix. He prefers gold bullion, or SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), a gold exchange-traded fund (ETF), if bullion is out of reach.
However, Cramer did not call Bitcoin a poor hedge. He only stated a preference.
Robin Brooks, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, shares the gold-first view. He wrote in August that he would avoid Bitcoin and does not see it as a safe haven.
In contrast, investors bought both in August. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas reported record five-day inflows of $7 billion into gold and Bitcoin ETFs.
The flows fed a 60/40 portfolio debate about the traditional 60% stocks, 40% bonds mix. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan argued that stocks and bonds are both priced in dollars.
Why Do Two Cryptos Pass His Quality Test?Cramer tied the crypto remark to quality. He said investors lured by perceived bargains, from penny stocks to junk tokens, risk losses.
Instead, he said, buyers could simply choose Ethereum or Bitcoin. Yet when he reached for a hedge, he listed Bitcoin beside gold and then chose gold.
Cramer has also tied his recent Mad Money picks to rising interest rates.
With money flowing into both assets, the question of which one insures a portfolio remains open among traditional-finance voices. The comments are Cramer’s opinion, not investment advice.
Ethereum ended the third quarter with more stake securing the network than at any point in its history, according to Bitwise’s Q4 2026 staking report. A record 43.80 million ETH, equal to 35.9% of the total supply, now sits locked in validators. The figure marks a sixth consecutive quarter of growth, with net inflows of 1.99 million ETH. But the same three months pushed the reward for securing Ethereum lower once more, squeezing the economics validators depend on.
The tension between those two numbers, more capital and less yield, is the story of proof-of-stake in late 2026. Bitwise frames it plainly: “Growth got cheaper—and it was mostly by design.”
The Record: 43.8 Million ETH and a Falling Yield
Bitwise’s headline finding is unambiguous: “Ethereum staking hit an all-time high: 43.80 million ETH, or 35.9% of supply.” Net inflows of 1.99 million ETH during the third quarter carried the total to a sixth straight quarter of expansion. Staked supply has now cleared the 40 million-ETH mark with room to spare, a level that would have looked improbable when validator withdrawals first opened.
The yield did not follow the capital. Ethereum’s gross staking yield slipped from 2.81% to 2.63% quarter over quarter. At recent prices near $2,449 per ETH, the 43.8 million staked tokens represent roughly $107 billion in notional value now earning a lower headline rate than a three-month Treasury bill. That is a comparison worth keeping in mind for anyone weighing validator income against simpler yield alternatives.
The gap is an arithmetic the report leaves implicit: a move from 2.81% to 2.63% is a 0.18-percentage-point decline, or about a 6.4% relative cut to validator revenue before node costs and fees. In a quarter where total stake grew, the per-validator share of issuance necessarily shrank. That is the mechanism behind the compression.
Why Validator Counts Fell While Stake Rose
One of the report’s more counterintuitive data points is that validator counts dropped on both major networks even as stake climbed. “Validator counts fell on both Ethereum and Solana, for opposite reasons,” Bitwise writes.
On Ethereum, the validator set contracted from roughly 1.1 million to 881,000, a decline of about 219,000 validators or nearly 20%. Bitwise attributes the drop to operators consolidating under the Pectra upgrade: fewer validator records now carry the same ETH behind them. The consolidation is a structural change rather than a loss of security, because the total stake securing the network rose even as the number of validator entries fell. A single operator can run consolidated validators that hold identical economic weight with less overhead, which is exactly why stake rose while the raw count of validators fell.
Solana’s decline had a different driver. Its validator set fell from 696 to 659, roughly 30% below where it stood a year earlier, under what Bitwise describes as cost pressure. Running a Solana validator is expensive, and with gross yields easing from 6.38% to 5.99%, marginal operators have been pushed out of the network.
Staking Beyond Ethereum: Solana, NEAR and the Rest
The report is not only an Ethereum story. “Stake rose while yields fell” across the major proof-of-stake networks. Solana finished the quarter with 69% of supply staked at a 5.99% gross yield, down from 6.38%. NEAR posted a 46% staking ratio at 4.87%. Hyperliquid held 436 million HYPE staked at 2.24%, a figure Bitwise calls broadly unchanged.
The yield spread between networks is itself instructive. Ethereum pays the least at 2.63%, while Solana’s 5.99% and NEAR’s 4.87% reflect smaller, faster-growing security budgets that still need to attract validators with higher issuance. As a network matures and its stake grows, the marginal reward for each additional validator tends to fall. Bitwise’s own framing, that falling yield is “mostly by design,” points to issuance schedules rather than a sudden loss of demand.
What stands out is how the report’s center of gravity has shifted toward on-chain financial activity rather than pure consensus. Tokenized equity volume on Solana reached $6.93 billion in the quarter, up 45%. Non-crypto markets made up 36.5% of Hyperliquid’s perpetuals volume. On Robinhood Chain, average daily Stock Token volume rose 22-fold from July to September, and Bitwise notes the chain generated more than $50 million in fees in its first quarter.
The 45% jump in tokenized-equity volume implies a baseline of roughly $4.8 billion in the prior quarter, a reminder that the growth is not only staking infrastructure but the markets now running on top of it. Recent Ethereum mainnet launches are layering more activity onto this same base.
What the Falling Yield Means for Stakers
For the individual staker, the report’s numbers translate into a thinner margin. Ethereum’s 2.63% gross yield lands before node costs, MEV strategy, and any liquid-staking fee, which means net returns sit lower still. The incentive to stake, in other words, is now as much about maintaining long-term network exposure as it is about income.
The consolidation trend reinforces that reading. As operators merge validator records under Pectra, the infrastructure becomes more efficient but also more concentrated at the professional level. Bitwise does not speculate on the regulatory or decentralization implications, but the direction is consistent with an industry where institutional players are moving onto Ethereum and staking is increasingly a service that businesses run rather than a hobby individuals maintain.
That institutional tilt is visible in Bitwise’s own footprint. The firm manages $9 billion in client assets across more than 70 investment products and serves over 5,500 private wealth teams, family offices and institutional investors, plus 21 banks and broker-dealers. A report of this kind lands precisely because the readership is no longer only retail validators, and because staked networks are now settling tokenized equities and perpetuals rather than just processing transfers.
A second-order effect runs through the supply side. With 35.9% of ETH locked in validators, a growing share of the token’s circulating supply is illiquid by design. Staked ETH cannot be sold without first entering the exit queue, so the record stake is also a record share of supply that cannot react quickly to a price move. That is not a claim Bitwise makes about the market, but it is a structural condition the report’s own figure makes visible.
What remains unresolved is how much further yields can fall before the growth in staked ETH stalls. The report records a sixth straight quarter of rising stake against falling yield, but it does not predict when that curve bends. Ethereum’s yield is set by issuance mechanics, and any change would be a protocol-level decision well beyond a quarterly data report.
For now, the cleanest read of Bitwise’s Q4 numbers is that Ethereum is more secured than ever, at a price its validators are quietly absorbing.
Convert Ethereum to USD with our live exchange rate calculator.
JPM Coin moves beyond Base onto Ethereum, with the bank citing liquidity and existing client use while keeping holders on an approved list
JPMorgan said Monday that it will make JPM Coin, its token representing US dollar deposits at the bank, available to institutional clients on the Ethereum network, according to Bloomberg. The token first launched on Base, the Coinbase-affiliated layer-2 network, in November 2025.
Emma Landriault, global head of Kinexys Labs at the bank's blockchain unit, told Bloomberg that JPMorgan chose Ethereum for its liquidity and because clients already use it. She described two target groups: crypto firms that want to make payments over blockchain networks, and financial institutions that need onchain cash to settle trades in tokenized assets or post as collateral.
Access stays restricted. JPM Coin is a claim on a deposit at JPMorgan, usable by approved institutional participants rather than any Ethereum wallet. That separates it from stablecoins, which circulate freely, and keeps it inside the bank's compliance perimeter even though the token now sits on a public chain.
The bank's private rail is already large. Kinexys's own Blockchain Deposit Account network handles more than $7 billion in daily volume, against about $12 trillion a day across JPMorgan's payments business as a whole, according to Bloomberg's reporting. The public-chain version is aimed at counterparties that cannot or will not sit on a private ledger.
A rollout Blockhead has tracked in stagesBlockhead reported the first public-chain plan in June 2025, when JPMorgan said it would launch the deposit token on Base. In December 2025 it covered the bank launching a $100 million tokenized money market fund on Ethereum, a sign that the bank was not tied to one network. In January, Blockhead covered the plan to bring JPM Coin to the Canton Network in phases through 2026, a route that still has to deliver.
The Ethereum move also sits next to other work on bank money. In June, Blockhead reported that JPMorgan, Citi and other US banks were planning a shared tokenized deposit network for 2027 through The Clearing House. In August, the bank was weighing a stablecoin of its own, which would run in parallel with JPM Coin rather than replace it. And Kinexys's technology already sits under tokenized fund products such as BlackRock's tokenized money market share classes, which are available in Singapore.
The Asia connectionKinexys's Asian partnerships point the same way. Blockhead covered the DBS and JPMorgan framework for moving tokenised deposits across public and permissioned blockchains last November. A JPM Coin that lives on Ethereum is the kind of endpoint that framework was meant to reach, though neither bank has said whether it will connect to the new deployment.
What is still unknownThe reports do not name clients, volumes or fees for the Ethereum deployment. The restricted-access design also means other banks' tokens will not be able to move freely against JPM Coin without agreed standards, which is the gap The Clearing House network is meant to fill. What the launch does show is where the largest US bank expects institutional settlement to happen: on a public chain, with a permission list attached.
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UK High Court approves appeal by Chinese victims in the Qian Zhimin case over property rights to more than 60,000 Bitcoin.
According to Caixin, just four days after the UK High Court of Justice ruled that the property rights dispute over more than 60,000 bitcoins in the Qian Zhimin case is subject to Chinese law, around 16,000 Chinese victims participating in the UK asset recovery process have been granted the chance to challenge the ruling further. The UK High Court held a fresh hearing, with the judge approving the Chinese victims’ appeal against the October 12 ruling on applicable law. Lawyers from all parties also discussed issues including litigation costs related to the earlier applicable law dispute, whether the approximately 16,000 individual claimants will continue to pursue their claims, and how to opt out of the proceedings.
5 minutes ago
Analyst: Short-term Bitcoin whales' unrealized profit falls 53%, with over 10,000 BTC transferred to CEX in a single day.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a post that Bitcoin short-term whales’ unrealized profit dropped 53% from a record $9.8 billion on September 22 to $4.6 billion on October 20, though the whales remain profitable. On the same day, whales transferred 10,605 BTC to centralized exchanges (CEXs), the highest single-day volume since October 8, roughly 2.8 times the 3,815 BTC average daily amount over the past 30 days. The decline in unrealized profit does not indicate reduced holdings, nor do transfers to exchanges equal actual sales, but analysts point out that the increased inflow signals a rising potential sell-off risk.
5 minutes ago
Crypto market liquidity crunch: Binance's stablecoin reserves hit their lowest level of the year.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost's data, centralized exchange (CEX) stablecoin reserves have been declining recently, with Binance's stablecoin reserves hitting their lowest level this year. Data shows Binance's stablecoin market capitalization has been on a downward trend since June, dropping approximately 4.7% over the past 90 days. Darkfost also pointed out that the decline in stablecoin reserves is not unique to Binance. This stablecoin outflow dynamic will continue to exert pressure on the market, and the lack of inflowing liquidity is exacerbating the current market weakness. To reverse the situation, the market needs to see capital flowing back into CEXs, which is a sign of demand recovery.
5 minutes ago
Zcash developers confirm the NU7 upgrade will roll out in November, cutting the block time to 25 seconds.
Zcash developers have reached consensus on the NU7 upgrade, set to activate at block height 3,543,405 (estimated around November 5). The upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed. Additionally, 60% of fees collected per block will be removed from circulation, with plans to return these funds to miners starting February 2031, while the original block reward halving schedule remains unchanged in the interim. Furthermore, Zcash’s original privacy protocol Sprout will be permanently shut down after the upgrade; funds not transferred in time will become inaccessible. The proposal was put forward by developer Sean Bowe and approved by the Zcash Improvement Proposal (ZIP) editing team, but it still needs to be formally merged into deployment specifications and integrated into node software before it can officially take effect.
5 minutes ago
US pre-market trading: All three major indices rise, SpaceX surges nearly 9% pre-market, and AI stocks rebound sharply.
Before U.S. stock market opens, all three major index futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.80%. In terms of individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, boosted by strong quarterly results, SpaceX gained nearly 9% to $161.08. Additionally, driven by merger rumors, Tesla rose 2.67% to $383.68. AI-related stocks mostly advanced before the market open: Nvidia was up 1.8%, AMD up 2.5%, Intel up 2.9%, SanDisk up 2.9%, Western Digital up 2.1%, and Seagate Technology up 2.4%. Meanwhile, optical communications and Neocloud-related stocks saw notable gains: Credo (CRDO) jumped over 5.2%, Lumentum (LITE) rose around 3.98%, and CoreWeave (CRWV) gained around 2.95%. For crypto-related stocks, BNB Standard (BNC) surged over 7.8%, and Strategy (MSTR) added around 1.99%.
5 minutes ago
Sources: Bank of Japan will decide at next week's meeting whether inflation has reached the 2% target.
According to Kyodo News, a source familiar with the matter revealed on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will assess whether the underlying inflation rate has hit its 2% target at next week’s policy meeting. A confirmation would mark a symbolic turning point for the BOJ, signaling an end to its long-standing monetary policy stance aimed at combating deflation. The BOJ first set the 2% inflation target in January 2013. Despite implementing aggressive monetary easing programs, the central bank has repeatedly pushed back its timeline for achieving the goal. If the target is ultimately met, it will come nearly 14 years after the target was first introduced.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
UK High Court approves appeal by Chinese victims in the Qian Zhimin case over property rights to more than 60,000 Bitcoin.
According to Caixin, just four days after the UK High Court of Justice ruled that the property rights dispute over more than 60,000 bitcoins in the Qian Zhimin case is subject to Chinese law, around 16,000 Chinese victims participating in the UK asset recovery process have been granted the chance to challenge the ruling further. The UK High Court held a fresh hearing, with the judge approving the Chinese victims’ appeal against the October 12 ruling on applicable law. Lawyers from all parties also discussed issues including litigation costs related to the earlier applicable law dispute, whether the approximately 16,000 individual claimants will continue to pursue their claims, and how to opt out of the proceedings.
4 minutes ago
Analyst: Short-term Bitcoin whales' unrealized profit falls 53%, with over 10,000 BTC transferred to CEX in a single day.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a post that Bitcoin short-term whales’ unrealized profit dropped 53% from a record $9.8 billion on September 22 to $4.6 billion on October 20, though the whales remain profitable. On the same day, whales transferred 10,605 BTC to centralized exchanges (CEXs), the highest single-day volume since October 8, roughly 2.8 times the 3,815 BTC average daily amount over the past 30 days. The decline in unrealized profit does not indicate reduced holdings, nor do transfers to exchanges equal actual sales, but analysts point out that the increased inflow signals a rising potential sell-off risk.
4 minutes ago
Crypto market liquidity crunch: Binance's stablecoin reserves hit their lowest level of the year.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost's data, centralized exchange (CEX) stablecoin reserves have been declining recently, with Binance's stablecoin reserves hitting their lowest level this year. Data shows Binance's stablecoin market capitalization has been on a downward trend since June, dropping approximately 4.7% over the past 90 days. Darkfost also pointed out that the decline in stablecoin reserves is not unique to Binance. This stablecoin outflow dynamic will continue to exert pressure on the market, and the lack of inflowing liquidity is exacerbating the current market weakness. To reverse the situation, the market needs to see capital flowing back into CEXs, which is a sign of demand recovery.
4 minutes ago
Zcash developers confirm the NU7 upgrade will roll out in November, cutting the block time to 25 seconds.
Zcash developers have reached consensus on the NU7 upgrade, set to activate at block height 3,543,405 (estimated around November 5). The upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed. Additionally, 60% of fees collected per block will be removed from circulation, with plans to return these funds to miners starting February 2031, while the original block reward halving schedule remains unchanged in the interim. Furthermore, Zcash’s original privacy protocol Sprout will be permanently shut down after the upgrade; funds not transferred in time will become inaccessible. The proposal was put forward by developer Sean Bowe and approved by the Zcash Improvement Proposal (ZIP) editing team, but it still needs to be formally merged into deployment specifications and integrated into node software before it can officially take effect.
4 minutes ago
US pre-market trading: All three major indices rise, SpaceX surges nearly 9% pre-market, and AI stocks rebound sharply.
Before U.S. stock market opens, all three major index futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.80%. In terms of individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, boosted by strong quarterly results, SpaceX gained nearly 9% to $161.08. Additionally, driven by merger rumors, Tesla rose 2.67% to $383.68. AI-related stocks mostly advanced before the market open: Nvidia was up 1.8%, AMD up 2.5%, Intel up 2.9%, SanDisk up 2.9%, Western Digital up 2.1%, and Seagate Technology up 2.4%. Meanwhile, optical communications and Neocloud-related stocks saw notable gains: Credo (CRDO) jumped over 5.2%, Lumentum (LITE) rose around 3.98%, and CoreWeave (CRWV) gained around 2.95%. For crypto-related stocks, BNB Standard (BNC) surged over 7.8%, and Strategy (MSTR) added around 1.99%.
4 minutes ago
Sources: Bank of Japan will decide at next week's meeting whether inflation has reached the 2% target.
According to Kyodo News, a source familiar with the matter revealed on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will assess whether the underlying inflation rate has hit its 2% target at next week’s policy meeting. A confirmation would mark a symbolic turning point for the BOJ, signaling an end to its long-standing monetary policy stance aimed at combating deflation. The BOJ first set the 2% inflation target in January 2013. Despite implementing aggressive monetary easing programs, the central bank has repeatedly pushed back its timeline for achieving the goal. If the target is ultimately met, it will come nearly 14 years after the target was first introduced.
UK High Court approves appeal by Chinese victims in the Qian Zhimin case over property rights to more than 60,000 Bitcoin.
According to Caixin, just four days after the UK High Court of Justice ruled that the property rights dispute over more than 60,000 bitcoins in the Qian Zhimin case is subject to Chinese law, around 16,000 Chinese victims participating in the UK asset recovery process have been granted the chance to challenge the ruling further. The UK High Court held a fresh hearing, with the judge approving the Chinese victims’ appeal against the October 12 ruling on applicable law. Lawyers from all parties also discussed issues including litigation costs related to the earlier applicable law dispute, whether the approximately 16,000 individual claimants will continue to pursue their claims, and how to opt out of the proceedings.
4 minutes ago
Analyst: Short-term Bitcoin whales' unrealized profit falls 53%, with over 10,000 BTC transferred to CEX in a single day.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated in a post that Bitcoin short-term whales’ unrealized profit dropped 53% from a record $9.8 billion on September 22 to $4.6 billion on October 20, though the whales remain profitable. On the same day, whales transferred 10,605 BTC to centralized exchanges (CEXs), the highest single-day volume since October 8, roughly 2.8 times the 3,815 BTC average daily amount over the past 30 days. The decline in unrealized profit does not indicate reduced holdings, nor do transfers to exchanges equal actual sales, but analysts point out that the increased inflow signals a rising potential sell-off risk.
4 minutes ago
Crypto market liquidity crunch: Binance's stablecoin reserves hit their lowest level of the year.
According to crypto analyst Darkfost's data, centralized exchange (CEX) stablecoin reserves have been declining recently, with Binance's stablecoin reserves hitting their lowest level this year. Data shows Binance's stablecoin market capitalization has been on a downward trend since June, dropping approximately 4.7% over the past 90 days. Darkfost also pointed out that the decline in stablecoin reserves is not unique to Binance. This stablecoin outflow dynamic will continue to exert pressure on the market, and the lack of inflowing liquidity is exacerbating the current market weakness. To reverse the situation, the market needs to see capital flowing back into CEXs, which is a sign of demand recovery.
4 minutes ago
Zcash developers confirm the NU7 upgrade will roll out in November, cutting the block time to 25 seconds.
Zcash developers have reached consensus on the NU7 upgrade, set to activate at block height 3,543,405 (estimated around November 5). The upgrade will reduce block time from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, tripling transaction confirmation speed. Additionally, 60% of fees collected per block will be removed from circulation, with plans to return these funds to miners starting February 2031, while the original block reward halving schedule remains unchanged in the interim. Furthermore, Zcash’s original privacy protocol Sprout will be permanently shut down after the upgrade; funds not transferred in time will become inaccessible. The proposal was put forward by developer Sean Bowe and approved by the Zcash Improvement Proposal (ZIP) editing team, but it still needs to be formally merged into deployment specifications and integrated into node software before it can officially take effect.
4 minutes ago
US pre-market trading: All three major indices rise, SpaceX surges nearly 9% pre-market, and AI stocks rebound sharply.
Before U.S. stock market opens, all three major index futures rose, with the Nasdaq 100 futures up around 0.80%. In terms of individual stocks, according to BIT (bit.com) market data, boosted by strong quarterly results, SpaceX gained nearly 9% to $161.08. Additionally, driven by merger rumors, Tesla rose 2.67% to $383.68. AI-related stocks mostly advanced before the market open: Nvidia was up 1.8%, AMD up 2.5%, Intel up 2.9%, SanDisk up 2.9%, Western Digital up 2.1%, and Seagate Technology up 2.4%. Meanwhile, optical communications and Neocloud-related stocks saw notable gains: Credo (CRDO) jumped over 5.2%, Lumentum (LITE) rose around 3.98%, and CoreWeave (CRWV) gained around 2.95%. For crypto-related stocks, BNB Standard (BNC) surged over 7.8%, and Strategy (MSTR) added around 1.99%.
4 minutes ago
Sources: Bank of Japan will decide at next week's meeting whether inflation has reached the 2% target.
According to Kyodo News, a source familiar with the matter revealed on Wednesday that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will assess whether the underlying inflation rate has hit its 2% target at next week’s policy meeting. A confirmation would mark a symbolic turning point for the BOJ, signaling an end to its long-standing monetary policy stance aimed at combating deflation. The BOJ first set the 2% inflation target in January 2013. Despite implementing aggressive monetary easing programs, the central bank has repeatedly pushed back its timeline for achieving the goal. If the target is ultimately met, it will come nearly 14 years after the target was first introduced.
Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.
Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.
Ethereum’s [ETH] path has now forked into two paths. The big players are back, but Futures aren’t quite there yet.
And regular traders? Still nowhere to be seen.
Who’s about to win?
Whales have returned, but not everyone’s happy!
Well, let’s start with the big money, because it just came back.
CryptoQuant’s Spot Average Order Size for Ethereum indicated “Big Whale Orders” again. This was with ETH near $2.4K. That’s the first time since mid-August.
Source: Cryptoquant
There’s a story behind it. Whale-sized orders were all over the place through February and March. They came back in June too, during the bottom. Both times, the price recovered soon after.
There’s one catch here though. It’s clear how big the orders are, but not which way they’re going. Big trades could be buying the dip or selling. This is not a sure sign.
The Futures market’s a lot less friendly.
Source: Cryptoquant
Futures Taker CVD has been sell-dominant since earlier this month. There hadn’t been a red stretch with this metric all year…until now.
Back in January and again from late April to May, it was firmly leaning on the buy-side. In that same window, ETH had slipped on the charts. The sellers weren’t exactly wrong.
Spot retail activity hasn’t leaned either way, with neutrality being the theme of the year. Not even during August’s rally!
Source: Cryptoquant
So, it’s whales vs. Futures traders right now. Regular buyers? They are probably just bystanders.
Is ETH turning a corner?
Ethereum was valued at $2,433 at the time of writing, up 1.5% over the day. This, after the token hit $2,476 for a brief period of time.
The RSI made things interesting too. It was at 42.6, having just crossed above its Signal line at 39.4. That hasn’t happened since the drop from earlier in the month.
Source: TradingView
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) was negative at press time with a reading of -0.07. However, it was still climbing back from the -0.17 reading of the 14th. Simply put, sell pressure seemed to be getting slower.
Still, ETH has a long way back. Getting to $2,500 would be the first real win.
Final Summary
Ethereum spot data’s at “Big Whale Orders” for the first time since mid-August.
Futures traders have been sell-dominant all October.
Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP are all testing support levels that could decide whether the crypto market recovers or falls further. Ali Martinez says all three could rebound, “but only if these levels hold.” Gareth Soloway’s view of Bitcoin and Ethereum is similar, though he places the trigger points differently.
Bitcoin: Both Watch $81,000
Martinez and Soloway both see $81,000 as the important level for Bitcoin.
Ali Martinez:
$81,000 is the bottom of Bitcoin’s rising channel on the daily chart.If buyers defend it, BTC could move to the middle of the channel at $84,000, then to the top at $86,500.A break below $81,000 would shift his focus to $76,000.Gareth Soloway:
Bitcoin is stuck in a range of about $6,000, between $81,000 and $87,200.It briefly fell to about $79,750 before climbing back above support.A move above $87,200 could take BTC to a rising trendline near $91,000. By late November, that trendline would be near $97,000.A daily close below $81,000 would point to lower prices.Soloway said the bullish structure is intact, though he called the price action “not the healthiest.” He said that Bitcoin has held up despite the slide in AI stocks and the Nasdaq. He currently has no swing position in BTC.
Ethereum: $2,350 Or Sub-$2,000
Ali Martinez:
ETH is testing $2,350, the support line of a right-angled ascending broadening pattern.A bounce from there could take it to $2,700, or as high as $3,000.A daily close below $2,350 would bring $2,000 into focus.Gareth Soloway:
ETH has held its key support but has not yet broken its key resistance.A breakout should lead to a retest of $2,800.A breakdown could send ETH below $2,000, where Soloway said he would be a heavy buyer.XRP: An Inverse Head And Shoulders In The Making
Martinez is watching $1.25 for XRP. On the three-day chart, holding that level could complete the right shoulder of a possible inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, a setup that often comes before a trend reversal.
Confirmation: a sustained close above $1.56Target if confirmed: $2Risk: losing $1.25 would bring $1 into view Story Ends Here
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Ethereum maintained levels near $2,400 over the past 24 hours, continuing a six-day recovery streak as buying activity absorbed pressure from recent sell-offs. This price zone has provided stability for ETH amid broader macroeconomic headwinds and ongoing withdrawals from investment products, serving as a key support area during the latest consolidation phase.
Onchain support and realized priceRecent trading activity has positioned Ethereum just above a critical onchain reference point. CryptoQuant data shows Ethereum’s realized price is approximately $2,311, reflecting the average onchain acquisition cost of ETH holders based on the price at which coins last changed hands.
When Ethereum trades below this level, it often signals that, on aggregate, holders are dealing with unrealized losses, although this does not necessarily mean that all investors are underwater. Historically, buying above the realized price has helped sustain support during market weakness.
Continuing to defend this onchain support may play a vital role in maintaining Ethereum’s current stabilization. However, a breach and daily close below $2,311 could undermine investor confidence and potentially trigger further sell-offs.
Mini dictionary: Realized price, the average price at which all circulating coins were last moved onchain, indicating an aggregate cost basis for holders and serving as a benchmark during periods of market stress.
Pressure has increased on ETH as US spot Ethereum ETFs saw significant outflows, with $103.2 million withdrawn on Monday and another $26 million on Tuesday, according to data from SoSoValue. This marks the fifteenth consecutive session of net outflows over the last fifteen trading days, suggesting persistent softness in institutional demand for ETH through regulated products.
Even with fifteen days of negative flows from US spot ETFs, Ethereum has stabilized near its recent support, showing that market demand outside of ETF channels has helped offset the selling activity.
Derivatives trading has also mirrored this volatility. Within the past 24 hours, total ETH futures liquidations reached $90.59 million, with $62.17 million of those being short positions. The figures imply that recent upward price moves have caught leveraged bearish traders off-guard, reversing a trend that previously favored long liquidation events during ETH’s decline.
Technical levels: $2,324–$2,362 support and near-term resistanceOn the daily ETH/USD chart, Ethereum has been consolidating, with technical support tightly clustered between $2,324 and $2,362. This area aligns with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average ($2,362) and a major horizontal support line ($2,324).
Ethereum has repeatedly tested this range without closing below it, which has enabled buyers to push prices back above $2,400 during the recent rebound phases.
LevelSignificance$2,311Onchain realized price/cost basis$2,324Major horizontal support$2,362100-day EMA$2,44450-day EMA/resistance$2,50020-day EMA/resistance$2,548Horizontal resistance target$2,781Higher resistanceA definitive daily close below $2,324–$2,362 would put the onchain cost basis at $2,311 in sharper focus and could intensify the downside momentum, potentially exposing secondary support at $2,215. On the upside, the 50-day and 20-day EMAs, currently at $2,444 and $2,500 respectively, continue to act as resistance. Sustained movement above these levels could signal a turn in short-term sentiment and open a path toward the $2,548 resistance.
The Relative Strength Index and Stochastic Oscillator have shifted upward but remain below neutral, indicating that selling pressure is waning, while buyers have yet to establish lasting control over price momentum.
For now, preserving the key technical support between $2,324 and $2,362 is central to keeping Ethereum’s current recovery intact. Further advances would likely require buyers to reclaim the $2,444–$2,500 region, reaffirming a stronger upside trajectory.
Ethereum staking reached approximately 36% of the total supply, while the annual yield dropped to 2.63%; a similar trend was observed in Solana.
The amount of ETH locked for staking on the Ethereum network reached a new record high of 43.8 million in the third quarter of 2026. According to data released by Bitwise, this amount represents approximately 36% of the total Ethereum supply. The net amount of ETH that entered the staking system in the first nine months of the year was 7.96 million.
Investor returns moved in the opposite direction during the same period. Ethereum’s annualized average staking yield fell from 2.81 percent in the second quarter to 2.63 percent. As more ETH joins the validator system, the rewards distributed by the network are shared among a wider pool.
Ethereum staking balance grew for the sixth consecutive quarter, with net inflows of approximately 2 million ETH recorded in the third quarter. Bitwise cited institutional investors as a significant driver of this growth. However, over 96% of staking revenue came from newly created ETH. The share of MEV revenue from transaction tips and queuing within blocks remained limited.
Ethereum network revenue also fell from $63 million in the second quarter to approximately $40.6 million. On Solana, 440.5 million SOL, or 69% of the total supply, was staked. Solana’s transaction fees increased by 49% to $76 million, while the number of transactions reached 14.2 billion.
The record staking volume could support the economic security of both networks. However, increased participation doesn’t guarantee higher returns for each token; on the contrary, data shows reward rates remain under pressure.
*This is not investment advice.
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CRCL Stock faces fresh economic uncertainty ahead of Thursday’s U.S. jobless claims report, with cryptocurrency prices showing early stability.
Bitcoin price traded near $83,000 on Wednesday, while Ethereum hovered around $2,450 and XRP held near $1.34. The employment release could reshape interest rate expectations before the Federal Reserve announces its next policy decision.
U.S. Jobless Claims Report-Oct 22
The Labor Department’s next weekly jobless claims report arrives Thursday, October 22, ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The previous release showed 199,000 initial claims for the week ending October 10, up 1,000 from the revised preceding week. That reading provides a comparison point as markets assess whether layoffs are increasing.
An unexpected increase in claims could strengthen concerns about slower hiring and rising unemployment. It might also give rise to monetary policy easing expectations if inflation data and other indicators of employment conditions continue to evolve favorably. However, if it suddenly and significantly deteriorates, it might dampen appetite for volatile stocks and put pressure on CRCL Stock.
Crypto Stability and Fed Policy Shape CRCL Stock Outlook
Circle Internet Group, the USDC issuer, earns reserve income that responds to changes in interest rates. Consequently, lower rates could improve market sentiment while reducing the yields available on Circle’s reserve assets. Circle’s first-quarter results showed that lower reserve yields partly offset the income benefit from higher average USDC circulation.
The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, placing the upcoming claims and PMI reports immediately before its next decision. Policymakers announce their decision on October 28 at 2:00 p.m. Eastern, followed by a 2:30 p.m. press conference. Further guidance about employment and inflation could influence rate expectations and the near-term direction of CRCL Stock.
Fedwatch data
Friday’s S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI reports will offer another assessment of business activity and price pressures.
CRCL Stock Prediction: Will CRCL Reach $90?
The supplied trading range places initial resistance at $86, with $87 and $88 marking the next potential hurdles. A sustained breakout above those levels could strengthen the case for a move toward the psychological $90 mark. A move from $86 to $90 would represent a gain of approximately 4.7%.
CRCL stock
However, buyers would need to maintain that breakout as markets respond to Thursday’s employment data and Friday’s PMI releases. Holding above former resistance would offer stronger evidence of buying demand than an isolated intraday price spike. A quick reversal below $86 would weaken the bullish case and raise the prospect of another support test.
On the downside, $81 provides the first reference level if buying momentum weakens after the employment report. A decline below that level could expose $80, followed by the recent $79 low. A sustained break beneath $79 could open a path toward $75, extending the downside scenario beyond the recent range.
Cardano (ADA) is showing a warning sign after falling 18% over the past two weeks, making it the worst performer among 25 major cryptocurrencies. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has flagged a bearish signal on the ADA chart, raising the risk of another drop toward $0.17.
However, ADA has repeatedly recovered after dipping below $0.21 since late August, making that level crucial for the next move.
ADA Price Falls 15% as Traders Face LiquidationsADA is currently trading near $0.224, up 2.8% in the past 24 hours as the broader crypto market shows a slight recovery. However, the token remains under pressure after its recent decline, while Bitcoin fell around 5% over the same two-week period.
Market volatility remains high, with ADA’s volatility exceeding 5.56% today. A total of 198 traders were liquidated, losing $620,320 combined.
Long traders accounted for 59% of the liquidations, worth $302,311, while short traders made up the remaining 41%, losing $318,007.
Analyst Flags Bearish Signal as Whales Stay FlatAccording to popular crypto analyst Ali Martinez, Cardano’s latest chart signal points to a possible price correction. The SuperTrend indicator has turned bearish, similar to a signal seen on May 22 that was followed by a 46% drop in ADA’s price.
Martinez also highlighted whale activity as another signal to watch. In the past, changes in holdings among investors with 100 million to 1 billion ADA have often lined up with major price moves.
3/5 The $ADA chart, however, is flashing a warning.
Cardano’s SuperTrend indicator has flipped bearish. The last comparable signal appeared on May 22 and was followed by a 46% correction.
That doesn’t mean history will repeat, but it makes the current signal worth watching. pic.twitter.com/AwH0ywnsEX
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 20, 2026 However, their holdings have stayed mostly unchanged over the past 10 days, showing no clear shift toward buying or selling.
The next key level is $0.21, which marks the lower edge of Cardano’s rising price channel. A daily close below this level could confirm a breakdown and push ADA toward $0.17.
Until then, the bearish signal remains a warning, not confirmation of another major drop.
ADA Price Prediction: Can ADA Fall to $0.17?On the daily chart, $0.21 is the key support level to watch. It marks the lower edge of Cardano’s rising price channel and has held in recent weeks. Since late August, every dip below $0.21 has been followed by a recovery above it within a few days.
However, a daily close below $0.21 could confirm a breakdown and push ADA toward $0.17.
On the flip side, a breakout above this level would start the bullish rally towards the $0.28 level.
Story Ends Here
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This article was automatically generated using Dow Jones technology. Most major cryptocurrencies were up at 10 a.m. Hong Kong time, with Cardano seeing the biggest change, climbing 0.6% to 22.4824 cents. XRP climbed 0.4% to $1.34, while Ethereum rose 0.3% to $2,453.63. Bitcoin rose 0.2% to $82,932.70, and Dogecoin rose 0.2% to 8 cents.
Sui increased 0.2% to $1.03, and Solana was flat at $106.65. Tronix was flat at 33 cents, and Avalanche shed 0.2% to $9.75. Data source: Dow Jones Market Data, Kraken (END) Dow Jones Newswires 10-20-26 2200ET Copyright (c) 2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson says he is personally developing a new programming language for Cardano ($ADA) that combines intents and proof-carrying data via Groth16 proofs.
Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) says he is personally developing a new programming language for @Cardano and its native token, $ADA. Few details have been released so far.
Hoskinson described the language as and said that @rvcas is building it with him.
Who is building itThe handle @rvcas belongs to Lucas Rosa.
Hoskinson's comment
What intents, PCD and Groth16 meanThree technical ideas sit at the center of the project.
Intents are also being explored elsewhere.
What is still unknown
For now, the announcement is a statement of intent rather than a product. Developers and $ADA holders will need technical specifications and a release schedule before judging how the language fits into Cardano's tooling.
Sources:
Unchained: Charles Hoskinson Reveals Work on a Cardano Programming Language Using Groth16 ProofsTokenPost: Hoskinson Develops Cardano Language for Intents and Cryptographic ProofsPANews: Cardano Founder Charles Hoskinson Personally Developing a New Programming Language
The Cardano Foundation is against bringing decentralized finance, staking and other blockchain activities under new European Union crypto regulations and argues that policymakers should rather focus on improving the existing Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation.
Summary
Cardano Foundation has urged EU policymakers to avoid introducing new regulations for DeFi and staking. The Foundation wants regulators to distinguish between direct blockchain participation and financial services operated by intermediaries that control customer assets. In its September 30 consultation response, the Foundation called for clearer rules covering hybrid tokens, stablecoins and NFTs while addressing overlaps with existing EU financial legislation. The Foundation warned that inconsistent regulatory interpretations across EU member states and complex compliance requirements could create difficulties for smaller crypto businesses. In its September 30 response to a European Commission consultation, the Foundation called for clearer rules governing digital assets and greater consistency in how existing legislation is applied across member states. It warned that creating separate regulatory frameworks for activities conducted through decentralized networks could introduce unnecessary compliance requirements without addressing risks already covered by existing laws.
European policymakers are currently reviewing MiCA’s implementation and considering whether activities currently outside its scope need additional oversight.
As previously reported by crypto.news, the European Commission opened its review in May to gather feedback from cryptocurrency businesses, financial institutions, regulators and other market participants.
Cardano Foundation wants DeFi and staking treated differently A central concern raised by the Foundation involves the distinction between decentralized blockchain infrastructure and financial services operated by identifiable companies or intermediaries.
The Foundation argued that regulatory requirements should be based on what a company or individual actually does, how much control they have over customer assets and the risks involved in those activities.
In the case of decentralized finance, the Foundation argued that simply providing blockchain infrastructure or software should not automatically qualify as offering a regulated financial service.
Public blockchains allow users to interact with applications, execute transactions and participate in network operations without necessarily relying on an intermediary. According to the Foundation, regulators should consider whether an identifiable person or entity actually controls the relevant assets or transactions before applying financial services requirements.
Staking was identified as one area where such distinctions would be particularly important.
On Cardano, ADA holders can delegate their stake to participate in the network’s consensus process without transferring custody of their tokens or locking them. The Foundation said participation of this kind supports the security and decentralization of proof-of-stake networks.
By comparison, staking services operated by intermediaries may involve custody arrangements or discretionary management of customer assets, creating different regulatory considerations.
The Foundation therefore recommended keeping direct participation in blockchain consensus mechanisms separate from commercial staking services when determining which regulatory obligations apply.
European lawmakers have taken a different position on whether additional oversight may be necessary. In July, the European Parliament called for a review of DeFi, staking, crypto lending and NFTs under MiCA, although its policy position did not introduce any immediate legal changes.
“Europe has the opportunity to become a global leader in tokenised capital markets, but this requires legal certainty and a technology-neutral regulatory framework. Financial instruments should continue to be regulated according to their economic characteristics, regardless of the technology used for their issuance, custody or transfer,” Coco Chen, Associate Director of Technology & Operations at the Association for Financial Markets in Europe told crypto.news in comments.
MiCA review raises questions over existing financial laws Another part of the consultation concerns how MiCA interacts with the EU’s existing financial services legislation, particularly the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II, commonly known as MiFID II.
Certain crypto assets fall under MiCA, while tokens classified as financial instruments are governed by existing securities and financial market rules.
However, determining the correct classification can become complicated when tokens combine several functions or their characteristics change over time.
The Foundation supported maintaining the current distinction between the two regulatory frameworks but requested clearer guidance for hybrid tokens and assets whose legal classification may be interpreted differently across EU member states.
Its response argued that classification should depend on an asset’s actual characteristics and legal rights, regardless of whether those rights are represented through blockchain technology.
Similar concerns were raised over stablecoins, particularly arrangements involving multiple issuers or operations across different jurisdictions.
The Foundation recommended clarifying how such structures should be treated under MiCA and addressing potential overlaps with European payment services legislation.
Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and other national central banks have proposed expanding restrictions on stablecoin remuneration to cover indirect returns generated through lending, borrowing and staking arrangements.
Environmental disclosure requirements were another area identified for improvement, with the Foundation calling for reporting rules that account for differences between blockchain architectures.
Cardano Foundation calls for existing NFT exemptions to remain NFTs were another focus of the consultation, particularly whether tokens belonging to large collections should continue to qualify for exemptions under MiCA.
The Foundation supported retaining the exclusion for genuinely unique and non-fungible assets, arguing that membership in a collection should not automatically determine whether a token is legally considered fungible.
Instead, classification should depend on the individual asset’s characteristics and whether it is genuinely interchangeable with other tokens.
Its response further argued that subsequent activities involving an NFT, including fractional ownership arrangements or integration into financial applications by independent third parties, should not automatically change the classification of the original asset.
The Foundation opposed creating a separate regulatory regime for NFT-related services, recommending that relevant activities be assessed under existing legislation.
A similar approach was proposed for prediction markets, perpetual futures and cryptocurrency lending, with the Foundation arguing that their economic and legal characteristics should determine which financial regulations apply.
EU regulatory differences remain a concern Despite MiCA establishing common rules across the European Union, the Foundation said differences in national interpretation and supervisory practices continue to create uncertainty for cryptocurrency businesses.
Among its recommendations were more consistent regulatory interpretations and clearer rules governing ownership, transfers and third-party rights involving tokenized assets across national borders.
The Foundation suggested harmonized conflict-of-laws provisions to determine which country’s laws apply to particular transactions, without requiring member states to adopt identical property laws.
Its submission addressed access for companies operating outside the EU, supporting legitimate reverse solicitation arrangements and consideration of comparable foreign regulatory frameworks.
Similar concerns over inconsistent supervision have appeared in the European Securities and Markets Authority’s 2027 supervisory priorities, which include coordinating national regulators, monitoring reverse solicitation and developing common reporting standards for crypto asset service providers.
The Foundation warned that complex compliance obligations could place smaller cryptocurrency businesses at a disadvantage compared with established companies that have more resources to meet regulatory requirements.
It said the ongoing review should address implementation problems while preserving regulatory safeguards, with the European Commission expected to consider the consultation responses before deciding whether legislative changes are necessary.
