Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its recent recovery as markets reassess the outlook for US interest rates. Softer US employment data has reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets are now focused on the upcoming US inflation report for further clues on the policy outlook. At the same time, uncertainty in the Middle East and concerns over Gulf supply routes continue to support safe-haven demand. These factors could continue to shape gold’s next directional move.

Gold extends recovery as softer jobs data weighs on rate expectationsGold maintained its upward momentum as changing interest rate expectations supported the market. Focus has turned to the upcoming US Consumer Price Index report for further direction on Federal Reserve policy. Higher-than-expected inflation could strengthen expectations for tighter policy, while softer inflation could ease expectations for another rate increase.

The latest US employment report has already changed the interest rate outlook. Nonfarm payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000 in July, compared with expectations for an increase of 85,000. The unemployment rate declined to 4.1%, but the labor force also contracted. Markets responded by reducing expectations for a September Fed rate hike. Current market pricing places the probability near 44%, leaving upcoming inflation data as an important factor for the next policy decision. Lower expectations for higher rates can support gold because the metal does not provide interest income.

Middle East developments remain another major influence. Iran continues discussions with Oman over arrangements for maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty over reopening the waterway remains. Oil prices have moved higher as concerns around Gulf supply routes continue. Higher energy prices could keep inflation concerns elevated and complicate the Fed outlook. At the same time, persistent geopolitical risks could maintain safe-haven demand for gold if regional tensions increase further.

Gold gains momentum after breaking key descending resistanceThe gold chart below shows price trading beneath a descending resistance trendline for several months. This trendline repeatedly capped recovery moves and maintained pressure on price. Gold later found support and began to stabilize, allowing price to gradually move higher. The recovery then extended toward the descending resistance trendline, bringing this key level back into focus.

Gold has now moved above the descending resistance trendline after remaining below it for several months. Price gained momentum after clearing this level and extended its advance toward the $4,300 region. This move marks an important shift in the near-term structure, as this resistance had repeatedly limited recovery moves.

The next development will depend on whether gold can continue to hold above descending resistance. Price remains comfortably above the broken trendline following the recent advance, keeping the current structure intact. Continued strength above this former resistance could support further gains and another advance toward the recent high. As long as gold remains above the broken trendline, the current recovery would remain in place and support the broader positive structure.

Gold outlook: US inflation data and Middle East risks shape next moveGold remains supported by a combination of softer US employment data and persistent geopolitical uncertainty. Reduced expectations for a September Fed rate hike have shifted attention toward the upcoming inflation report for the next policy signal. Middle East uncertainty and concerns over Gulf supply routes also continue to support safe-haven demand. At the same time, gold remains above the broken descending resistance trendline after its recent advance. Continued strength above this level could support further gains. Upcoming inflation data and geopolitical developments will remain important drivers for Gold.

Danske Research Team notes that the US Dollar (USD) weakened after a softer US jobs report, allowing EUR/USD to briefly reach its highest level in almost two months. They highlight that markets cut Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening expectations for September, while also flagging upcoming United States (US) inflation data and Euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as key for EUR/USD traders.

Dollar slides as Fed bets fade"In the US, the July jobs report came in on the weak side with nonfarm payrolls coming in at -23k (cons: +80k, Danske: +70k) and cumulative revisions for May-June firmly negative at -103k. The unemployment rate nonetheless fell to 4.1% (cons: 4.2%, Danske: 4.2%). At the same time, the labour market participation rate declined to 61.4%, which is the weakest level since February 2021. "

"We do not think this report is as unambiguously dovish as the initial moves in UST yields and USD FX implied, leaving the Fed in a difficult position balancing below-expectations job growth against a still-declining unemployment rate. Fed's Barkin's initial commentary acknowledged the weakness in the labour market data, while pointing to continued resilient corporate earnings."

"Consequently, the market now discounts 11bp of hike from the Federal Reserve at the next meeting in September."

"The USD took a hit on Friday and the US jobs report significantly disappointed expectations. The USD lost ground against the rest of G10 currencies. EUR/USD rose briefly to 1.1581 - the highest level in almost two months."

"In the euro area, the Sentix Investor Confidence indicator is due. The index rose sharply in in July, marking the third consecutive monthly improvement, driven by rising expectations. Today's release will provide a read on whether momentum continues."

"The week closes on Friday with the second release of euro area Q2 GDP, including details. "

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Euro (EUR) trades subduedly at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Monday. The EUR/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar rebounds after a significant fall on Friday.

At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.12% higher to near 99.72.

The US Dollar fell sharply on Friday after the release of the soft United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July, which forced traders to reassess Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations.

The NFP report showed that employers fired 23K workers, while they were anticipated to create 80K fresh jobs.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed raising policy rates in the September meeting are 46%, a sharp decline from 67% seen a week ago.

Meanwhile, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD trades marginally lower at around 1.1550, but is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1484, suggesting the recent advance is supported by underlying demand.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) strives to stabilize above the 60.00 zone, hinting at fresh bullish momentum.

On the downside, initial support emerges near the August 3 low at 1.1500, followed by the 20-day EMA at 1.1484. The pair would be exposed to the July 28 low at 1.1353 if it fails to hold the 20-day EMA. On the upside, the pair could extend the advance towards the June 15 high at 1.1622 if it manages a decisive break above Friday's high at 1.1581.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator Nonfarm Payrolls The Nonfarm Payrolls release presents the number of new jobs created in the US during the previous month in all non-agricultural businesses; it is released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The monthly changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile. The number is also subject to strong reviews, which can also trigger volatility in the Forex board. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish, although previous months' reviews ​and the Unemployment Rate are as relevant as the headline figure. The market's reaction, therefore, depends on how the market assesses all the data contained in the BLS report as a whole.

Read more.

America’s monthly jobs report is considered the most important economic indicator for forex traders. Released on the first Friday following the reported month, the change in the number of positions is closely correlated with the overall performance of the economy and is monitored by policymakers. Full employment is one of the Federal Reserve’s mandates and it considers developments in the labor market when setting its policies, thus impacting currencies. Despite several leading indicators shaping estimates, Nonfarm Payrolls tend to surprise markets and trigger substantial volatility. Actual figures beating the consensus tend to be USD bullish.

Key highlightsEUR/USD started a fresh increase above the 1.1520 resistance.A contracting triangle is forming with resistance at 1.1600 on the 4-hour chart.EUR/USD technical analysisLooking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained pace for a move toward 1.1580. A high was formed at 1.1581, and the pair is now consolidating gains above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.1352 swing low to the 1.1581 high.

The pair is now well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1580.

The next major resistance might be 1.1600. There is also a contracting triangle forming with resistance at 1.1600. A close above 1.1600 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1650.

Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1685. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 1.1540. The next major support could be near 1.1500.

The main support might be 1.1465 and the 50% Fib retracement. A downside break and close below 1.1465 might send the pair toward 1.1400. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1350.

Upcoming key economic eventsEuro Zone Sentix Investor Confidence for August 2026 - Forecast -3.2, versus -3.1 previous.

Gold prices fell in Philippines on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 8,470.15 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,483.27 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to PHP 98,794.27 per tola from PHP 98,947.18 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in PHP

1 Gram

8,470.15

10 Grams

84,702.17

Tola

98,794.27

Troy Ounce

263,448.80

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 512.17 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 512.76 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,973.81 per tola from AED 5,980.78 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in AED

1 Gram

512.17

10 Grams

5,121.69

Tola

5,973.81

Troy Ounce

15,930.17

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 569.90 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 570.86 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,647.15 per tola from MYR 6,658.41 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

569.90

10 Grams

5,698.95

Tola

6,647.15

Troy Ounce

17,725.74

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold is under renewed selling pressure toward $4,300, kicking off the US inflation week on a negative note and retreating further from seven-week highs of $4,372 set last Friday.  

Gold stuck between Mideast risks, easing Fed hike betsGold is on a slippery slope early Monday, as traders resort to profit-taking following the previous week’s 7% gain, while repositioning ahead of this week’s critical US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release.

The bullion rallied hard last week, with the uptrend strengthened following the US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which showed that the US economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs in July, against expectations of an 80,000-job gain.

The Unemployment Rate suddenly dipped to 4.1%, but that was due largely to a further decline in those holding jobs or looking for work.

Following the weak US labor market data, markets trimmed their bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September to 44% from about 55% pre-data, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

According to TD Securities, the US curve "bull steepened on the negative headline print despite a drop in the UE rate to 4.1%," as the latest labor market data eased fears of renewed strength. The firm notes that the report "eased concerns over a reaccelerating labor market, leading to markets pricing out hikes, with September's pricing declining by 3bp to 12bp of hikes." Looking ahead, TD Securities adds that "while we continue to expect the Fed to keep rates on hold for 2026 and 2027, September pricing could remain substantial as the Fed will continue to look at data to make a decision in the months ahead."

Gold’s latest pullback is also led by a broad-based US Dollar rebound as investors rush for safety in the buck amid renewed tensions surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend.

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday that Tehran was close to reaching an agreement with Oman on a new mechanism for managing maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. However, Araghchi stressed that the vital waterway would not be reopened until Washington meets additional conditions.

That followed US President Donald Trump’s comment that “we are only semi-negotiating with them,” per Axios.

Further, there were reports that Iran launched multiple anti-ship cruise missiles from Sirik in southern Iran, striking an oil tanker off Oman's coast. Meanwhile, Tehran-backed Houthi forces hit a Saudi oil refinery Sunday, just days after Riyadh formed a new defense alliance with Turkey and Pakistan amid the escalating US-Israel conflict with Iran. 

Against persisting Middle East tensions and a fresh advance in Oil prices, concerns over inflation continue to haunt markets and provide a floor to the Greenback at the expense of the non-yielding bullion.

Later in the day, the geopolitical risk premium will remain in play amid a quiet US economic docket.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,325.48. The metal holds a constructive near-term bias as it trades above the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,096.91 and $4,149.68, while still capped beneath the 100-day SMA at $4,388.87 and the 200-day SMA at $4,496.46. The alignment of shorter SMAs below price and longer SMAs above suggests gold is staging a recovery within a broader consolidation, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering in bullish territory near 63.7, hinting at firm but not yet overbought upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA around $4,388.87, with the 200-day SMA near $4,496.46 acting as the next key barrier if buyers extend the advance. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 50-day SMA at $4,149.68, followed by the 21-day SMA near $4,096.91, where a break lower would suggest that the current rebound is losing traction and could invite a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.

Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.

Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,400 Breakout Could Open Path to $4,900 XAUUSD Breaks Above 50-Day SMA The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price broke out of the wedge formation at the $4,120-$4,150 level on August 5, 2026. After the break, prices rallied to mark a high of $4,371 on Friday. This rebound from the bottom has broken the bullish structure and also the 50-day SMA and points toward the 200-day SMA in the $4,500 region.

Moreover, the RSI remains above the midline, which indicates the possibility of upside momentum in the gold market in the short term.

The Japanese yen softened against the US dollar, even after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) flagged rising risks of faster interest rate hikes in the last meeting. The USD/JPY pair rose to 158.23, up by nearly 2% from its lowest level this month. 

There are signs that the BoJ is considering faster interest rate hikes to fill the gap with the Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate.

Minutes of the last meetings showed that officials were comfortable with higher rates for longer as inflation remained at an elevated level. The minutes said:

“Given that underlying CPI inflation has been approaching 2 percent and greater consideration should be given to upside risks to prices than before, it could be considered that the pace of policy interest rate hikes will be faster than market expectations.”

The BoJ left interest rates unchanged at 1% in the last meeting, its highest level since September 1995. It made the last 25 basis point hike in June, and now Polymarket traders believe that it will hike again later this year.

The most recent data showed that the headline consumer price index (CPI) jumped to 1.7% in June, the highest reading since December last year. This surge was driven by electricity and gas prices as government subsidies were scaled back.

Energy prices have jumped in Japan this year because of the ongoing US-Iran war that pushed Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices to nearly $120 at the peak. Crude oil prices drifted higher on Monday as Iran announced tougher rules for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. It is seeking reparations, release of frozen assets, and the lifting of the naval blockade.

The USD/JPY pair has risen recently as investors bought the dip after the recent interventions by the US and Japan. The BoJ has spent over $50 billion this month, while the US has swapped euros worth billions of dollars to Japanese yen. 

This happened as the US is concerned that Japan will be forced to dump some of its US treasuries to boost the yen, a notable thing since Japan holds over $1.1 trillion in bonds and the 30-year yields have remained above 5% for over a month.

It is common for a forex pair to bounce back after experiencing such a big drop that the USD/JPY had earlier this month.

The pair will next react to the upcoming US consumer price index (CPI) report that comes out on Wednesday. Economists expect the data to show that inflation slowed modestly in July as gas prices fell a bit. This report comes a few days after the US released the weak nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data, which showed that the economy lost 23k jobs last month.

USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView

The daily chart shows that the USD to JPY pair plunged from a high of 163.96 to a low of 155.20. It has now plunged below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bears are in control for now.

At the same time, the two lines of the Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) have moved below the zero line and moved to the lowest level in months. The pair is also forming a bearish flag pattern, a common bearish continuation sign.

Therefore, the pair’s outlook is mixed for now. One aspect is where it resumes the downtrend as sellers attempts to retest this month’s low of 155.20. On the flip side, it may bounce back to the psychological level of 160.

Gold (XAU/USD) drifts lower at the start of a new week and moves away from its highest level since June 17, touched on Friday following the disappointing release of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. In fact, the crucial US monthly employment data showed that the economy unexpectedly lost 23K jobs in July, while the previous month's reading was also revised down to 20K from 57K. This pointed to signs of a cooling US labor market and undermined the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates, which, in turn, weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD) and provided a goodish lift to the non-yielding bullion.

The immediate market reaction, however, turned out to be short-lived as uncertainties surrounding the Middle East crisis and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz offered some support to the safe-haven Greenback. In fact, Iran reiterated conditions for a full reopening of the critical waterway, including an end to the US naval blockade, the removal of sanctions and compensation for war damage. Moreover, Tehran has ruled out direct talks with the US, citing alleged violations of the interim peace agreement reached in June. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and underpins the USD, exerting some pressure on gold.

Meanwhile, the US-Iran standoff acts as a tailwind for crude oil prices. Investors remain worried that rising energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures and force major central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance. Furthermore, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in a greater chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the year-end. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which favors USD bulls and backs the case for a further depreciating move for gold. Traders, however, might opt to wait for the latest US inflation figures this week.

XAU/USD daily chart

Source: TradingViewTechnical Analysis:Friday's breakout through the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall favors XAU/USD bulls. The said support is pegged just above the $4,300 mark, which, if broken, could prompt some technical selling and pave the way for a further depreciating move. Moreover, Gold remains below the 50% Fibo. level and the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), warranting some caution before positioning for an extension of the recent move up witnessed over the past week or so.

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%0.02%0.30%0.09%0.04%0.22%0.12%EUR-0.03%-0.00%0.26%0.03%0.00%0.17%0.08%GBP-0.02%0.00%0.26%0.04%0.04%0.17%0.09%JPY-0.30%-0.26%-0.26%-0.25%-0.29%-0.18%-0.20%CAD-0.09%-0.03%-0.04%0.25%-0.10%0.13%0.03%AUD-0.04%-0.01%-0.04%0.29%0.10%0.14%0.07%NZD-0.22%-0.17%-0.17%0.18%-0.13%-0.14%-0.08%CHF-0.12%-0.08%-0.09%0.20%-0.03%-0.07%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Knowing how to trade the Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the most important measures for inflation, is an essential skill for all types of traders, no matter their level of expertise. The CPI report has the power to shape central bank monetary policies and can send ripples through international markets. This comprehensive guide offers useful tips on how to interpret the CPI data, anticipate central bank reactions and execute disciplined trades with clarity while minimizing risk.

Why CPI Matters More than any Other Inflation Release To start with, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures how the prices consumers pay for certain goods and services change over time. It is considered a key metric of inflation for any nation’s economy and an important indicator of economic health. However, the most closely followed CPI report in the world, is the one published by the US, currently the world’s largest economy. The Federal Reserve, seasoned traders and adept investors, take the monthly results into consideration before making their next moves.

A rising or falling CPI can directly influence interest rate expectations, which subsequently impacts the USD, Treasury yields, gold and JPY carry trades. As soon as the report goes public, asset prices start experiencing rapid swings until the markets eventually adjust to a level dictated by whether the data is higher, lower or at the exact same level as forecasts.

Understanding CPI Like a Pro When looking into the rise and fall of goods and services’ prices, two separate inflation measures come up – Headline inflation and Core inflation. These two figures differ in the products they monitor and even though they are both critical economic indicators, the Core CPI tends to carry more weight for the Fed.

Headline CPI The Headline CPI rate reflects the total inflation within an economy. This raw figure encompasses all goods and services including highly volatile items, like food and energy products, the prices of which are often susceptible to seasonal changes and can shift irrespective of economic conditions. Their inclusion means the figure is more aligned with changes in real-world costs but also more easily influenced by short-term price swings.

Core CPI Core inflation is a version of CPI that filters out the prices of food and energy – highly volatile categories that can easily be affected by non-economic factors such as the weather, geopolitical events and more. Omitting these key products leads to a clearer snapshot of underlying inflationary trends which can better guide monetary policy in achieving its primary objective – safeguarding medium-term price stability. That is why the Fed relies more on Core CPI to form its central bank policy.

How CPI Moves Markets When it comes to market reaction, the CPI forecast matters more than the actual figure. What markets respond to is the difference between the consensus forecast and the actual results. As deviation grows, the reaction becomes more intense resulting in price fluctuation, extensive stop-loss activation and the formation of a strong intraday trend. Keep in mind that the forecast is already priced in, what shifts prices is the element of surprise.

When CPI data exceeds expectations, market participants expect the Fed to raise interest rates to cool inflation down. Higher rates make yield-returning assets like government bonds more attractive to investors domestically and abroad. This scenario tends to strengthen the US dollar causing major pairs like the USDJPY to rise. At the same time, non-yielding precious metals like gold and silver can lose their appeal, which can trigger selloffs and a price dive.

If CPI results come in lower than expected, markets tend to expect a more dovish approach from the Fed.  This can send off an instant alarm signal across global markets. Lower interest rates can decrease demand for dollar-denominated securities which in return weakens the US dollar. This could intensify market risk sentiment, driving investors to safe-haven assets like the Japanese Yen (JPY) and precious metals like gold. The increased capital inflows into these two assets can cause gold to rally and the USDJPY to drop.

How CPI Interacts with Other Data Within the economy, circular patterns are predominantly present – changes in one sector can spill over to other areas. The CPI has a strong correlation with other key indicators like the PPI, the NFP, Wage Growth, and Retail Sales. They are all caught within a dynamic, interconnected feedback loop. None of them moves alone; changes in one tend to trigger changes in the others.

PPI – Producer Price Index The Producer Price Index measures the change in prices for wholesale goods, revealing changes in raw input costs. Unlike the CPI that tracks price changes paid by consumers, the PPI shows how prices change for producers. Both measures show inflation in a different but complementary way.

When producers see their input costs climb higher, they tend to increase product prices to cover the higher expenses. Thus, customers are often burdened with additional charges. In cases like these, a higher PPI can lead to a higher CPI.

Wage Growth & NFP Wage growth indicates the rate at which average salaries grow over time. On the other hand, the non-farms payroll report shows how many jobs were added or removed from the US workforce in manufacturing, construction and goods within a month. Both reports are key indicators of economic health, can affect living standards and inflation, and are taken into consideration by the FOMC when making interest rate decisions.

How are these metrics in constant interplay with inflation? A significant increase in jobs and fast wage growth can be evidence of inflationary pressures. Employers who hire more staff and pay them higher salaries need to raise product and service prices to maintain their profitability at the same levels. At the same time, the employees have more spending power which in turn increases the demand for goods and drives prices in the broader market even higher. These conditions can lead to higher CPI rates and can urge the FOMC, the US Federal Reserve policymaking body, to increase interest rates.

In contrast, a drop in jobs and slow wage growth can be a sign of economic slowdown. As salaries show no change and hiring slows down, consumers have less money to spend. This can cause demand for goods and services to decline, pushing product prices and the CPI down. In an attempt to boost the economy, the Fed could lower interest rates.

Retail Sales Retail Sales is another major economic barometer which shows the total amount of products purchased by consumers within a specific period. In the US, Retail Sales are published monthly and constitute a vital measure for the national economy in which consumer spending represents two thirds of the gross domestic product.

The monthly figure often moves alongside the CPI. High sales can point towards an expanding economy in which consumer confidence is increased and demand is strong – conditions that can lead to higher inflation and potentially tighter monetary policy. Alternatively, declining sales can indicate an economic downturn, decreased household spending and weak demand for goods and services. In this scenario, inflation usually drops, which might prompt the Fed to lower interest rates to help stimulate the economy.

The General Rule The PPI, Wage Growth, NFP and Retail Sales reports moving in the same direction can reveal a strong economic cycle. High figures provide firm evidence for economic expansion, in which the CPI is expected to rise. Low numbers give a strong signal for a declining economy and a lower CPI rate. In synchronized conditions like these, the CPI trade becomes highly probable.

How CPI Guides the Fed & why USDJPY Reacts Violently The Fed has a dual mandate: to maintain price stability with a target inflation rate of 2% and keep the labor market healthy. The U.S. economic body closely watches the CPI, the key inflation metric, to adjust its monetary policy.

A low or falling CPI can reflect slow market growth which can prompt the Fed to lower interest rates. This reduces borrowing costs, which promotes business investment, helps boost consumer spending and revitalizes financial markets. However, if CPI comes in higher than expected, it signals that the economy could be growing too fast. In response to higher inflation, the Federal Reserve could increase interest rates which makes borrowing more expensive. This means less money enters the economy, businesses development halts, consumers spend less and investing declines.

USDJPY showcases heightened sensitivity to inflation, and it is a popular currency pair with investors for this type of setup. Let’s break down the why.  To begin with, interest rate differentials between the US and Japan can considerably affect USDJPY. As we’ve seen, when the CPI rate climbs higher, the Fed raises interest rates, and Treasury yields increase. This makes the government-issued securities attractive investment options for local and international investors, strengthening the U.S. dollar and pushing the USDJPY exchange rate higher.

Now, let’s consider the opposite scenario. When CPI data comes in lower than expected, the Fed employs a looser monetary policy to boost the economy. This includes lower interest rates and in effect lower Treasury yields. The reduced return on the U.S. government debt securities makes them a less desirable investment option and causes a drop in the USD, which in turn translates into a lower USDJPY exchange rate.

How Gold (XAUUSD) Reacts to CPI Decoding the relationship between the CPI and the price of gold is crucial if you are looking to capitalize on inflation and its subsequent wave of effects on the precious metal. The first thing you need to be aware of is that gold tends to move in the same direction as CPI and has a moderately inverse correlation to U.S. Treasury yields. Let’s delve deeper into this financial interplay.

Historically, when CPI increases pushing the Fed towards lower interest rates and Treasury yields, the price of gold generally tends to climb higher. This can be attributed to gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. When inflationary pressures cause purchasing power to drop and economic growth has to be slowed down with a tighter monetary policy, investors move funds into gold to protect their capital.

In the reverse situation, when the CPI is relatively stable or declining, the price of gold tends to show more variable patterns of movement, usually leading to a substantial drop. This points to other factors interfering with gold prices, when inflationary pressures are low. The general trend is that a drop in CPI, followed by a decrease in interest rates and Treasury yields, tends to push the US dollar lower and gold higher. However, it is advisable that you consider CPI data within a broader economic framework to ensure your moves align with the overall global market conditions.

The CPI Playbook: USDJPY & Gold After you get a grasp of the significance of the CPI, the way it interacts with other key economic reports and correlates with USDJPY and gold, you can start trading any inflation-caused chain of reactions with confidence. To increase your chances of a successful outcome, a step-by-step plan of action is essential. We present you with our own expert strategy guidebook based on tested game plans applied by experienced macro traders in global markets.

USDJPY – CPI Strategy Step 1 – Pre-News Preparation:

Mark key levels – Note down the previous day’s highs and lows for the Asian and New York trading sessions Identify liquidity pools – chart areas where a large volume of pending orders could be triggered. Search for equal highs or lows pointing to consolidation zones. These points gather institutional interest and can turn into magnets for price. Reduce your position size – volatility tends to rise around the release of the CPI report Step 2 – First Reaction:

Ignore the market’s first reaction – the first spike is market noise, driven by algorithmic trading Do not trade during the first 1-2 minutes – volatility surges around this time Step 3 – Wait for Confirmation

Look for a Directional Candle within the 5-minute to 15-minute timeframe. The candle should: have a large real body and small wicks, giving a clear signal that markets moved strongly in a specific direction. close near a key high or low level. NOTE: Beware of immediate wick rejection. In this case the candle shows significant move towards a particular direction and then reverses to close near its opening price.

Wait for a Confirmation Candle – this gives the final confirmation for the trend, and it should display the below characteristics: Increased trading volume – signaling a large number of traders are active Close near the price’s peak or bottom – depending on whether it is an uptrend or downtrend Larger size – it is usually bigger than the previous candles Alignment with the trend – it should be bullish for a bullish trend, bearish for a bearish trend Step 4 – Execute Based on CPI Outcome

If the CPI rate comes in above forecasts, the USDJPY exchange rate will most likely increase.

Check that liquidity is above pre-release highs to confirm the market is bullish Place a stop loss below the Confirmation Candle low Buy USDJPY If CPI rate comes in below forecasts, the USDJPY exchange rate will most likely decline.

Check that liquidity is below pre-release lows to confirm the market is bearish Place a stop loss above the Confirmation Candle high Sell USDJPY Start Trading USDJPY

Gold (XAUUSD) – CPI Strategy Before entering this trade, please note that Gold is more volatile than USDJPY.

Step 1 – Mark the Pre-News Range

Identify the high and low levels formed 30 – 60 minutes before the release of the CPI report. Step 2 – Ignore the First Reaction

The first post-CPI spike is often a fakeout. Step 3 – Wait for Clear Acceptance

Study candles within the 5-minute or 15-minute timeframe to confirm “acceptance levels” – levels the price is trading within and that buyers and sellers don’t try to break away from If the price breaks the range and holds, there could be trend continuation – the price will most likely continue in the same direction after the first reaction. If the price rejects the breakout, a reversal could emerge – the price will most likely continue moving in the opposite direction. Look for a Directional Candle within the 5-minute to 15-minute timeframe. The candle should: have a large real body and small wicks, giving a clear signal that markets moved strongly in a specific direction. close near a key high or low level. NOTE: Beware of immediate wick rejection. In this case the candle shows significant move towards a particular direction and then reverses to close near its opening price.

Wait for a Confirmation Candle – this gives the final confirmation for the trend, and it should display the below characteristics: a. Increased trading volume – signaling a large number of traders are active

b. Close near the price’s peak or bottom – depending on whether it is an uptrend or downtrend

c. Larger size – it is usually bigger than the previous candles

d. Alignment with the trend – it should be bullish for a bullish trend, bearish for a bearish trend

Step 4 – Execute Based on CPI Results

If the CPI rate comes in above forecasts, the price of gold will most probably drop.

Check that liquidity is below pre-release lows to confirm the market is bearish Place a stop loss above the Confirmation Candle high Sell XAUUSD If the CPI rate comes in below forecasts, the price of gold will most probably rise.

Check that liquidity is above pre-release highs to confirm the market is bullish Place a stop loss below the Confirmation Candle low Buy XAUUSD Risk Management – The Most Important Part Before you enter the markets, there’s one thing you need to understand – not every trade can be a successful one. That is why an effective trading strategy incorporates more than just checking numbers and performing technical analysis to identify the best time to enter and exit a position. It also includes a well-organized risk management plan to contain losses in case the price moves against you. The financial markets can be affected by a number of factors outside the economic sphere, including global politics, breaking news announcements and even natural disasters. Any unpredicted, sudden changes can cause sharp price swings which can be detrimental to your account and even lead to wipe-outs.

A solid risk management strategy helps you prevent uncontrolled losses, protect your capital, reduce emotional trading, achieve consistency, improve discipline and aim for profitability in the long run. To be able to hit all these targets, you need to incorporate tested practices in your trading:

1. Never risk a large percentage of your capital per trade Ideally, you do not want to be allocating more than 1% to 2% of your balance on a single CPI trade. This ensures you only risk a small portion of your trading funds, and a single loss cannot affect your trading in the long term.

2. Use Limit Orders The release of a CPI report often triggers high volatility. This can cause trading volume to dry up briefly and increase the risk of slippage – the risk of orders not being executed at the requested level but getting filled at a worse price than expected. Setting limit orders and pre-defining the execution price helps you have better control over limiting losses. However, make sure you set your stops wide enough to allow for normal price fluctuations and retracements without forcing trades to be stopped out prematurely.

3. Reduce Position Size Choosing the proper position size can protect your trade from the dangers of overexposure and changing financial conditions. To better determine the size of your position, take into consideration your risk tolerance, the post-CPI release market and the probability of your CPI trade based on your technical analysis.

4. Avoid Revenge Trading When met with setbacks, impulse and emotion can very easily take over from logic. Many of you may have already fallen into the trap of revenge trading – trying to recover from losing trades fast, only to end up with even more hits on your balance. To avoid this pitfall, you need to step away from the trading platform after a loss, give yourself some time to assess the situation and return with a calm, clear and focused mindset.

The Final Overview Understanding inflation and the economic effects of the CPI report is an advanced skill that can help you make more informed trading decisions and place higher-probability trades in markets whose inner workings you can now see more clearly. From explaining the importance of the US CPI, its interdependent relationship with other key economic indicators, the ways it can affect the decisions of the Federal Reserve and move the prices of USDJPY and gold to detailed step-by-step trading strategies for the globally popular assets, this article covers all you need to trade the CPI with precision and confidence.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7884 compared to Friday's fix of 6.7904 and 6.7379 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

The Australian dollar enters the week on a six-week winning streak, but the rally could face an important test from the RBA and US CPI. Markets have priced out a near-term RBA hike following softer Q2 inflation, leaving the US dollar and incoming US data increasingly important for AUD/USD. A weak CPI print could undermine Fed hike expectations and give the Aussie room to push higher, while a hotter result could support the US dollar and limit gains around 71c.

View related analysis:

Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD, AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD Setups Australian Dollar Broadly Lower as Soft CPI Reverses RBA Hike Bets Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? US Dollar Awaits NFP as September Fed Hike Odds Hang in the Balance Australian Dollar Outlook: RBA and US CPI Set the Tone US Jobs Growth Contracts as Hiring Weakens Expectations for a September Fed rate cut were lowered once again following a weak nonfarm payrolls report. NFP job growth fell 23k – its first contraction in six months – missing the 85k estimate. June’s NFP was downgraded to 20k from 57k, while private payrolls slowed to 30k, missing the 78k expected, with June’s figure slashed to 330k from 48k. Healthcare and social assistance – which has accounted for around 80% of total job growth over the past 18 months – rose by a mere 22k, government jobs fell 53k and retail trade was down 19.4k. While unemployment fell to 4.1%, the focus was on growth – or lack thereof.

Fed fun futures now imply a 57% of no rate change in September, from a 54% chance of a hike before NFP. October hike odds are now 47%.

The US dollar was broadly lower on Friday and the weakest FX major, seeing the USD index form a bearish engulfing candle and weakest close in two months. Gold surged to a 7-week high during its best week 9 in 28.

Australia This Week: Economic Data and Events for AUD/USD Traders RBA To Deliver a Hawkish Hold? Markets have effectively priced out a hike from the RBA this week following weaker-than-expected Q2 CPI figures two weeks ago. The OIS curve still suggests an 89% chance of a single 25bp hike within one year, however. The RBA’s tone could therefore shape expectations for that hike, but few are expecting one anytime soon.

Inflation remains firmer than the RBA would like and above its target band, which should force it to retain a hawkish bias tomorrow. But unless crude oil prices rip higher again due to another flare-up in the Middle East peace process, it seems likely that the RBA’s cash rate may have peaked at 4.35% for now. That said, it seems unlikely the RBA will tank the Australian dollar with a dovish tone.

The Australian dollar may therefore take its directional cue from a weaker US dollar rather than hawkish RBA expectations. This could see the Aussie grind higher without going on a tear, although resistance looms for AUD/USD and support is nearby for the US dollar index.

Source: LSEG

This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.

Traders will be on high alert for any pockets of weakness in incoming US data following the latest NFP miss. Core CPI will be top of the list, especially as ISM services prices paid have fallen from elevated levels and crude oil prices are lower than they could have been. Even a vaguely weak inflation print could crush hopes of another Fed hike, send the US dollar lower and lift risk appetite, allowing AUD/USD to rally along for the ride.

Traders will then shift their focus to producer prices and retail sales, with any signs of weakness potentially backing bets to short the US dollar. So, US inflation data could hold the key to the Australian dollar’s direction this week. An upside CPI surprise could muddy the waters, help the US dollar recover and stifle the AUD/USD rally around 71c.

Source: BLS, ISM, LSEG

Australian Dollar Performance It has been a bullish month for the Aussie overall, although its performance has been uneven – and that could point towards a mixed performance ahead. Cleaner, more explosive moves tend to occur during periods of risk aversion, risk rebounds or central bank policy divergence. None of those are apparent at the moment. SO unless a fresh catalyst arrives, moves could be on the smaller side. Though the best chance of a rally from AUD/USD could be if we see US data continue to undershoot expectations.

Chart prepared by Matt Simpson - Source: LSEG

AUD/USD rose for a sixth consecutive week and closed firmly above 70c. Whether it rises for a seventh week could come down to US data. AUD/CAD remains confined to its established range, which has favoured bearish setups near the highs and bullish setups near the lows. AUD/CHF appears to be forming a bullish flag around its cycle highs. AUD/EUR is becoming difficult to decipher directionally, given its series of higher lows and higher highs, which also lacks the structure of a continuation triangle. AUD/GBP is trying to gain further ground after bulls defended the March low, but this could also form the ‘right shoulder’ of a classic H&S bearish reversal. AUD/JPY found support at the 2024 high and shows potential to recoup more of its post-intervention losses. AUD/NZD formed a bearish engulfing week and closed below 1.20, although the sell-off from the highs is losing momentum overall. I am therefore not convinced it is ready to roll over without a fresh catalyst.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar AUD/USD Correlations Strengthen Against the US Dollar The Aussie’s strongest relationship remains with the US dollar, with the inverse correlation between AUD/USD and the US dollar index (DXY) rising to -0.90 over 10 days, from -0.87 over 20 days and -0.82 over 60 days. China and risk sentiment remain supportive: AUD/USD has a 0.97 correlation with the Chinese yuan and 0.78 with the S&P 500 over 10 days. Gold has also become more closely aligned, with the correlation rising to 0.89 over 10 days. Commodity links are more mixed: copper's correlation has fallen to 0.51, while WTI crude oil has shifted to a -0.61 inverse correlation.

Source: LSEG

For traders wanting a deeper understanding of futures positioning, I’ve also published a guide on how to read and interpret weekly COT data in forex markets.

AUD/USD Positioning Shifts as Longs Increase Large speculators increased gross longs by 6.6k contracts last week, their fastest weekly increase in three months. Gross shorts were a touch lower, suggesting the dynamics behind the Aussie’s rally are slowly changing. Total open interest is also rising alongside prices, pointing to broader demand for the Australian dollar from futures traders.

So, despite AUD/USD rising for six consecutive weeks, it still has potential to move higher if the US dollar remains under pressure. Six consecutive weekly gains is certainly on the extreme side, but the rally over this period has not been excessive. Taking the strong inverse correlation with the US dollar into consideration, the dollar remains in the driving seat.

Source: CFTC (COT) CME, LSEG

AUD/USD Options Signal Further Upside The US dollar index is clinging to support around the 99.384 swing low after breaking below its bullish trendline and 200-day MA last week. Incoming US data could decide which side of support it lands on by Friday’s close, and therefore whether AUD/USD can extend its trend or retrace lower.

Risk reversals remain supportive of the AUD/USD rally for now, with the rising lines showing that call demand is increasing relative to puts, even though puts remain dominant on an absolute basis. The one-week implied volatility band sits at 0.6996–0.7136, while the 71c handle also looks like a likely resistance level unless the US dollar index simply rolls over.

I have a hunch that inflation may not surprise much in either direction, which leaves the option, but not the obligation, of another Fed hike. That could allow AUD/USD to grind higher towards 0.7100–0.7136.

Source: ICE, TradingView

View the full economic calendar

-- Written by Matt Simpson

Follow Matt on Twitter @cLeverEdge

There is an unimaginable fortune floating between 150 and 400 million miles from Earth.

It’s an asteroid named Psyche.

Some people think we can solve global poverty by mining this space gold and other precious metals.

We can’t.

Scientists believe this 144-mile-long floating space rock contains large amounts of metal, including gold and platinum. They estimate the asteroid could contain $10 quintillion worth of precious metals.

I don't even know what the number means. To put it into perspective, it would be enough money to pay every person on Earth $1.22 billion.

That would certainly put a dent in global poverty, eh? As a bonus, we wouldn't have to hate billionaires anymore. We'd all be one!

Of course, the amount of gold on Psyche is purely speculation.

According to NASA, “The best analysis indicates that Psyche is likely made of a mixture of rock and metal, with metal composing 30 percent to 60 percent of its volume. The asteroid’s composition has been determined by radar observations and by the measurements of the asteroid’s thermal inertia (how quickly an object gains or re-radiates heat).”

Even without knowing Psyche’s exact composition, it’s fun to speculate about how much gold might be there.

Scientists estimate Psyche's mass is roughly 2.3 × 10¹⁹ kg. Let's say gold constitutes just 10 parts per million (purely speculative); that would amount to about 230 billion metric tonnes of gold. That's roughly a million times more than all the gold mined in human history.

A fool's errandEvery so often, people talk about mining Psyche and similar asteroids. It sounds like a great plan. I mean, if there’s that much gold and other precious metals in the asteroid, it certainly seems like something worth looking into, right?

Or maybe not.

From a practical standpoint, we're capable of reaching the asteroid. In fact, NASA launched a mission to Psyche in 2023. The unmanned craft is expected to reach Psyche in 2029.

We also have the ability to dig for gold in space. 

However, from an economic standpoint, trying to pull gold out of a space rock is a fool’s errand.

That hasn’t stopped people from trying.

In 2010, Planetary Resources and Deep Space Industries combined forces to mine asteroids. They secured some high-profile financing from the likes of Google’s Larry Page and Eric Schmidt.

It wasn’t enough.

Within a decade, the companies had been absorbed by other organizations that had nothing to do with asteroid mining.

As Lachlan Brown, writing for Space Daily, put it, it wasn’t that the precious metals weren’t there.

“[The lesson] was that the timelines are long, the capital required is vast, and investors ran out of patience long before anyone reached an asteroid.”

That isn’t stopping TransAstra Corporation from pursuing intergalactic mining. However, CEO Joel Sercel told CNBC the mining of precious metals on asteroids simply isn’t economically viable.

“If we had to develop a full-scale asteroid mining vehicle today, we would need a few hundred million dollars to do that using commercial processes. It would be difficult to convince the investment community that that’s the right thing to do. In today’s economics and in the economics of the near future, the next few years, it makes no sense to go after precious metals in asteroids. And the reason is the cost of getting to and from the asteroids is so high that it vastly outstrips the value of anything that you’d harness from the asteroids.”

The company will focus on mining water from asteroids to make rocket propellant in space. This would allow rockets to refuel en route and allow rockets to launch from Earth carrying much less heavy fuel.

Of course, technology is advancing daily. Gold mining in space isn’t out of the question in the future.

So, can we count on a future with an unlimited supply of gold and riches for all?

Even if we could, I’ve got bad news.

All of that gold wouldn’t be worth much.

One of the things that makes gold valuable is its scarcity. If somebody drug thousand of tonnes of gold back to Earth, it would be worth about as much as a bag of mulch – if that.

Brown explained why reading basing a business plan on “$10 quintillion” in gold on a space rock is a fool’s errand.

“The first is that the number assumes you could deliver all that metal to Earth at no cost, when the delivery is the entire problem. The second is more fundamental: if you actually did land that much platinum or gold, you would flood the market and collapse the price of the thing you came to sell. The markets for precious metals are small by weight, and they do not have room to absorb asteroid-scale quantities without the value evaporating.”

So, the next time somebody tells you we’re going to eliminate poverty one day by giving everybody on Earth a bunch of space gold, you can explain to them why they’re living in a fantasy world.

As Brown summed it up, “The case for asteroid mining is real, but almost nothing like the version that gets sold.”

EUR/USD Talking Points: EUR/USD finished the week with a big test of resistance at prior support, extending the breakout from the prior week but with an abundance of questions over drivers as it still appears that the main FX flows are coming from the USD/JPY setup. For next week, there’s a lot importance around the US CPI report as shows of slower inflation can impact US rate hike odds which can then further impact that USD/JPY carry trade. And if we do see more long-term longs closing then USD-weakness can drive in several other markets, EUR/USD included.

It’s rare that the Euro isn’t the major driver of the Dollar basket, because after all, it is a whopping 57.6% component of DXY. But the reality is sentiment matters, as does positioning, and if we’re seeing that massive carry trade in USD/JPY unwind with USD selling and JPY gaining, well even the larger major pair of EUR/USD can be impacted.

We saw this happen back in July of 2024, when nothing especially great was happening for the Eurozone economy yet EUR/USD gained almost 500 pips in Q3. But remember, these are FX pairs that we’re talking about so there’s two components, and even if the Euro is hovering or treading water, the act of the US Dollar dropping can lift the net value for the pair which is what happened.

Back then it was a BoJ intervention on the morning of a US CPI print creating a perfect storm. To that point there was doubt as to whether the Fed would actually be able to cut rates. That CPI print cemented expectations that they would be able to, and with an assist from the Bank of Japan intervening, suddenly, long positions in USD/JPY had reason to bail. And that USD-weakness had a significant impact on FX markets across-the-board, EUR/USD included. We saw a small snippet of that two weeks ago when a coordinated intervention pushed USD/JPY down by almost 900 pips, helping to prod a breakout in EUR/USD as the pair pushed out of a falling wedge formation and continued to rally through last week until finally finding resistance at a familiar area of 1.1576.

EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Shorter-Term At this point there’s a short-term pattern of higher-highs and lows that trend traders can work with, especially the focal point around the 1.1500 handle that I had looked at in last week’s webinar. That zone can be extended up to the higher-low of 1.1515 to create an area to look for bullish defense on pullback scenarios. A bit closer to current price as we wind towards the weekly close is a prior point of resistance at 1.1560, and below 1.1500 there’s a spot of prior resistance from 1.1455-1.1469 that remains relevant.

If bulls fail to hold prices above that last zone, it’s going to begin to look as though the breakout and fresh rally has failed.

EUR/USD Four-Hour Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot Silver finished sharply higher on Friday after taking out the 50-day moving average at $62.14. The market also closed above the indicator suggesting the presence of strong buyers.

The main trend is up according to two metrics. On Wednesday, the trend changed to up on the swing chart when buyers took out $60.94. It was reaffirmed on Friday when the July 6 main top at $63.28 was taken out. Crossing to the strong side of the 50-day MA also reaffirmed the uptrend.

The new short-term range is $54.78 to $65.16. If the 50-day MA fails as support then look for a possible pullback into the minor retracement zone at $59.97 to $58.75. Short-term traders should note that a trade through $56.56 will change the trend to down.

Long-term traders should pay close attention to the 50-day MA at $62.14, the long-term 50% level at $60.84 and the July 17 main bottom at $54.78. These are the key levels that will influence the longer-term direction.

On the upside, a sustained move over Friday’s high at $65.16 will signal a resumption of the uptrend. If this move creates enough upside momentum then look for the rally to possibly extend into the 200-day moving average at $71.09.

What to Watch Friday’s close tells traders the market believes the Fed has less room to act next month. The payroll loss was the main event. Cooler wages and a participation drop added to the case. Silver needs crude to stay contained and the dollar to stay on the defensive next week. A rebound in oil or a fresh round of hawkish pushback from Fed officials gives profit-takers from Friday’s close a reason to press the market.

The uptrend is confirmed on the swing chart and the 50-day moving average. The close above $63.28 reaffirmed it. Buyers have the 50-day at $62.14 as the first support and the long-term 50% level at $60.84 underneath that. A sustained move above Friday’s high at $65.16 reopens the path toward the 200-day moving average. A failure to hold the 50-day tells you the rally was short covering, not a trend change.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.

Gold futures (GC.F) chart: buyers reclaim the declining channel, with 4,375-4,381 the key barrier before 4,500-4,525.

Looking at today’s chart, we can see that despite yesterday’s pullback following the unsuccessful attempt to break above the upper boundary of the red declining channel, buyers quickly regained control and pushed the market higher once again.

The result?

Gold not only climbed back above the red declining channel, but also reached our previously discussed upside target based on the inverse head & shoulders pattern (congratulations to everyone who stayed with the bullish scenario and benefited from the move!).

So, what comes next? If buyers manage to close both today’s session and the entire week above 4381 – confirming the close above the major bearish gap – our next upside target from yesterday’s Lab will likely become their next destination:

“(…)The next upside target remains 4372, followed by the major bearish gap between 4375-4381, which continues to represent the final technical barrier before a potential move toward 4500-4525.

Momentum indicators remain on the buyers’ side, increasing the probability of further strength – especially if today’s session closes above the red declining channel. (…)”

What could slow the bulls down? An invalidation of the earlier breakout above the red declining channel.

Copper Copper futures (HG.F) chart: the failed breakout shifts attention to 656 support and the 651-655/647-650 zones below.

Yesterday’s quote sets the tone for today – so let’s start there:

“(…) Nevertheless, please keep in mind that a daily close below 669 would be the first signal that a deeper correction may be starting. (…)”

Looking at today’s chart, we can see that despite yesterday’s rally and a new all-time high, buyers failed to hold prices above 669, with the session closing at 670.

As a result, we saw an invalidation of the earlier breakout above the previous highs and above the upper boundary of the green ascending channel, giving sellers fresh technical arguments.

The result?

Copper extended its correction, suggesting that we could see a test of the previously broken upper boundary of the orange consolidation around 656.

If buyers fail to defend that area, sellers may shift their focus toward the nearest bullish gaps at 651-655 and 647-650, which together now create the nearest support zone.

Today’s Takeaways Dollar (DX.F) Watch today’s daily close – it will likely set the tone for Monday. A close back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the lower boundary of the red declining channel would invalidate the developing bearish engulfing pattern. If sellers stay in control, watch the 99.18-99.26 bullish gap, followed by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around 99.00. Gold (GC.F) Buyers have already reached our previously discussed upside target. Watch the 4375-4381 bearish gap. A weekly close above 4381 keeps the door open toward 4500-4525. An invalidation of the breakout above the red declining channel would weaken the bullish outlook. Copper (HG.F) Buyers lost the breakout above the previous highs and the green ascending channel. Watch 656 first. Below that, the next support zone comes in at 651-655 and 647-650. Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand before committing fresh risk. Have a wonderful weekend!

Anna

In 2026, trading desks lean on machine learning models that scan headlines and macro data in real time alongside years of price history, and gold has become one of the more interesting tests of what that shift actually changes. The metal has swung wildly this year, trading above $5,000 an ounce before pulling back hard, and every leg of that move got attributed to something. The tools analyzing gold have gotten faster. Whether the reasons people actually buy and sell it have changed much is a separate question.

How AI has changed the way Gold tradesAI-driven systems can process macroeconomic data and market sentiment alongside historical price action, all at a speed no analyst could match a decade ago. Investment funds already lean on these models to rebalance portfolios and time entries around major economic releases, and some mining companies are even using similar tools to locate new deposits rather than trade the metal at all. That kind of speed matters most around scheduled events, such as a Fed meeting, where prices used to take minutes to reprice and now move within seconds of a headline crossing the wire.

Yet one detailed look at AI's growing footprint in the gold market settled on a fairly modest conclusion. The technology is a tool, not an oracle, because gold's price still depends on decisions no dataset can fully anticipate.

When algorithms amplify human emotionIn February 2026, gold lost more than 3% in a single trading session after concerns about an AI-related selloff spread from tech stocks into the broader market. Analysts described algorithmic traders as amplifiers of that drop rather than its cause. Silver fell even harder the same day, losing over 11%, which fits a pattern where fast-moving systems accelerate a mood that's already forming instead of creating one from scratch.

Key Takeaway: Algorithms can move faster than people, but they're still reacting to the same fear and momentum that has always driven sharp pullbacks.

The human decisions behind Gold's biggest movesSome of gold's most consequential buying in recent years came from an unmistakably human source: central banks. Annual purchases averaged around 525 tonnes between 2014 and 2016, before that figure more than doubled to 1,136 tonnes in 2022, in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, as governments moved to protect their reserves from geopolitical risk no model had priced in ahead of time.

Retail traders lean on a similar instinct on a smaller scale. Sentiment analysis remains one of the most common gold trading strategies because investor behavior in this market is still shaped by fear and greed rather than pure math. Watching how bullish or bearish that mood gets often says more about gold's next move than any single economic release.

Key Takeaway: The biggest swings in gold demand, from central bank reserves to retail positioning, still start with a human read on risk.

What this means for Gold investorsNone of this makes AI irrelevant. It means faster analysis and tighter pricing, and that will keep changing how trades get executed on any given day. What it hasn't done is replace the underlying reasons people turn to gold in the first place, which have more to do with trust and uncertainty than with any model's output. A trading desk can automate execution, but it can't automate why someone decides gold belongs in their portfolio to begin with.

For investors weighing how much of that decision to hand off to a machine, the case for holding physical gold hasn't really changed shape.

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USD/NGN weekly price chart showing the multi-year symmetrical triangle, EMA cluster (20/50/100/200), and price coiling near ₦1,361 support. Source: TradingView. In addition to this, the inflow of foreign money into the Nigerian economy is playing a big role in strengthening the naira. According to the CBN’s 2025 Annual Report, foreign exchange inflows increased by 13.8% to a record high of $109.86 billion in 2025. These increased inflows were a result of more non-oil commodities being exported out of the country, foreign investors pumping money into the economy, and over-the-counter purchases. These inflows have ultimately strengthened the naira by boosting dollar supply.

₦1,211 Support Comes Into Focus The USD/NGN weekly chart shows three out of four EMA lines lying close together and compressing in a manner that indicates the market is coiled for a near-term breakout. The fourth EMA line, which is the 200 EMA, lies far below the others at around ₦1,211. If price breaches the symmetrical triangle downwards, and closes a weekly candle in the ₦1,300 region, we can expect a test of that 200 EMA as a support at ₦1,211.

The weekly RSI reads 43.28 at the time of writing, which is slightly below the average mark and leaves enough room for price to run before hitting either extremity of the full RSI range.

The immediate risk for naira bulls is a drop in oil revenue, as the country’s economy relies heavily on foreign currency inflows through the export of its crude oil. Weak oil sales means weaker foreign reserves, as most of the Central Bank’s forex savings are built from the proceeds of crude exports. The country’s heavy dependence on imported goods doesn’t help, and the more goods need to be imported, the more naira is sold to buy dollars so that traders can pay for the foreign goods.

The Pound Sterling edges higher by some 0.29%, yet it remains trading sideways, unable to decisively crack 1.3500 after reaching a weekly peak of 1.3506, and has retreated to the 1.3490 area.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe technical picture shows that GBP/USD is consolidating, yet it is slightly tilted to the upside after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.3406. Market structure suggests the uptrend might resume once buyers reclaim the July 15 swing high at 1.3558, opening the door to a test of 1.3600.

In that scenario, the next area of interest for GBP/USD would be the May 11 swing high at 1.3653, followed by 1.3700.

On the flip side, if GBP/USD remains below 1.3500, look for a pullback towards August’s 3 low of the day (LOD) at 1.3417. A breach of the latter will expose the convergence of the 100- and 200-day SMAs at 1.3406/05, followed by the 50-day SMA At 1.3365.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Daily

GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.12%-0.01%0.24%-0.54%-0.38%0.13%0.13%EUR0.12%0.11%0.38%-0.41%-0.15%0.28%0.26%GBP0.01%-0.11%-0.06%-0.53%-0.27%0.14%0.14%JPY-0.24%-0.38%0.06%-0.72%-0.48%-0.01%-0.02%CAD0.54%0.41%0.53%0.72%0.25%0.72%0.68%AUD0.38%0.15%0.27%0.48%-0.25%0.40%0.40%NZD-0.13%-0.28%-0.14%0.00%-0.72%-0.40%0.00%CHF-0.13%-0.26%-0.14%0.02%-0.68%-0.40%-0.00% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Gold (XAU/USD) skyrockets on Friday, gaining over 2.30% in the day and more than 7% in the week after US jobs data was mixed, with a softer Nonfarm Payrolls print while the Unemployment Rate remained steady. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,340 after hitting $4,371 earlier in the day, its highest level since June 17.

XAU/USD surges over 7% for the week on weak NFP, lower US yieldsUS jobs data disappointed investors after July Nonfarm Payrolls showed that the economy shed 23K jobs, missing forecasts for an 80K job gain. Payrolls for May and June were also downwardly revised, combined, slashing 103K people from the workforce, lower than previously reported. Even though the data justifies the Federal Reserve's (Fed) reluctance to increase interest rates to tackle inflation, the Unemployment Rate also ticked lower, from 4.2% to 4.1%.

The data pushed US Treasury yields lower and the Greenback as well. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down two basis points at 4,687%, a tailwind for bullion prices.

As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the American currency against six other currencies, is down 0.42% to 99.54.

The Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that “jobs data was very consistent with a sector in weak balance.” He added that the report depicts the labor market as being in a “low hire, low fire” scenario.

Dip in energy prices hurts Fed hike betsGeopolitics continued to play a role in the financial markets, which turned moderately optimistic about the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that he believed that the war with Iran could be over soon.

Despite this, Iran says the proposed agreement with Oman, which reportedly would ban US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait, would only establish a temporary shipping route and would not amount to a full reopening of the waterway.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US Oil benchmark, is flat during the day around $78 per barrel, but is down almost 9.9% for the week.

The swaps market had priced in a lower probability that the Federal Reserve would raise rates at its September meeting. The odds stand at 30%, down from 58% a day ago, while there’s a 70% chance the central bank will keep rates unchanged, according to Prime Terminal data.

Source: Prime TerminalTraders will be watching the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for July on Wednesday. Economists expect inflation to decrease slightly from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY, with Core CPI also dipping from 2.6% to 2.5% YoY.

On Thursday, the Producer Price Index (PPI), a key input to the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will be released.

XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold challenges 100-day SMA as bulls target the 200-day SMAGold price seems poised to turn bullish as the yellow metal surpassed the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,152, and it is on its way to challenge the 100-day SMA at $4,390. Momentum has turned bullish, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI). With that said, the path of least resistance is upwards.

The next area of interest would be the 200-day SMA at $4,390. If breached, the next key resistance is $4,450, followed by the $4,500 mark.

Downwards, bullion’s first support level is the July 6 high, now turned support at $4,202. If this level is broken, the next targets are the 50-day SMA at $4,152 and $4,100. Below that, the August 3 daily low of $4,019 acts as further support.

Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Euro Technical Forecast: EUR/USD Weekly Trade Levels EUR/USD has rallied more than 2% from the yearly low after last week's outside-week reversal. The recovery is now confronting it’s the first technical hurdle since breaking out of the July range. Weekly momentum is attempting to confirm a broader shift after diverging into the yearly low. Holding above the July breakout zone would reinforce the recovery, larger test of yearly downtrend is eyed just higher. Resistance 1.1578, 1.1639/49 (key), 1.1746/75- Support 1.1469/83, 1.1355/94 (key), 1.1228 EUR/USD has extended its recovery from the yearly low after last week's outside-week reversal triggered a decisive breakout from the July consolidation range. The rally has now reached the first major resistance zone since the June decline began, making this an important test of whether buyers can sustain the improving technical backdrop. With weekly momentum showing signs of turning higher and key U.S. inflation data on tap next week, traders will be watching closely for confirmation on whether this recovery has room to develop into a broader trend reversal. Battle lines drawn on the EUR/USD weekly technical chart.

Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this EUR/USD technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.

Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView

Technical Outlook: In last month’s Euro Technical Forecast we noted that the July opening range was set just above pivotal support and that, “From a trading standpoint, the April downtrend remains intact while below 1.1649, but the bears are vulnerable while above 1.1355.” EUR/USD spent more than five-weeks coiling within the July range before breaking out into the close of the month. An outside weekly reversal off the lows last week has extended more than 2.2% off the yearly low with the rally now testing the first major resistance hurdle on the back of a weaker than expected US employment report.

EUR/USD Weekly RSI

The immediate focus is on the weekly close with respect to the January low at 1.1578. Note that weekly momentum has is attempting to break above 50 for the first time since May after marking divergence into the yearly low. A momentum trigger extending off the 2025 high-close remains in place and may offer further guidance in the weeks ahead.

Initial weekly support now rests at the July breakout zone near 1.1469/83 with key support steady at 1.1355/65- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance and the April high-week close. The median-line of the broader 2022 uptrend converges on this level and a break / weekly close below would be needed to fuel the next major leg of the January downtrend. Subsequent support rests at the 2026 high close at 1.1228 and 1.1110/64.

A confirmed breakout from here exposes the next major resistance zone at the 61.8% retracement of the April decline and the 52-week moving average at 1.1639/49. Note that the 61.8% parallel converges on this threshold next week and strength beyond this slope would suggest a more significant low was registered in June. Ultimately a breach above the 1.1745/75 is needed to invalidate the yearly downtrend and put the bulls back in control.

           

Bottom line: EUR/USD rebounded off major support last week with the recovery now testing the first technical hurdle. From a trading standpoint, a good level to reduce portions of long-exposure / raise protective stop- losses would need to be limited to the 1.1469 IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Look for a larger reaction near 1.1650 IF reached.

Today's weaker-than-expected Non-Farm Payrolls report prompted markets to scale back expectations for a September rate hike, with Fed funds futures now implying a 56% probability the Fed leaves policy unchanged next month. The focus now shifts to Wednesday's CPI report, which will provide the next major test for the inflation outlook. With labor market conditions showing signs of moderation, softer inflation data would reinforce the case for a less restrictive policy path, reducing the dollar's yield advantage and supporting the euro's recovery. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close for guidance. Review my latest Euro Short-term Outlook for a closer look at the near-term EUR/USD technical trade levels.

Key Euro / US Economic Data Releases

Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.

Active Weekly Technical Charts Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Gold (XAU/USD) US Dollar Index (DXY) Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) British Pound (GBP/USD) --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist

Follow Michael on X @MBForex

Gold (XAU/USD) is gaining momentum on Friday, trading above $4,350 after the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Bitcoin (BTC) shows signs of a steady recovery above $65,000, buoyed by growing risk-on sentiment.

US Nonfarm Payrolls fall by 23K in JulyThe US NFP dropped by 23,000 in July, falling short of consensus forecasts of an 80,000 gain. This drop comes after June’s modest increase of 20,000, revised from the initial 57,000, highlighting a significant loss of momentum in the labor market.

Additional data from the report revealed the Unemployment Rate ticked down to 4.1% from 4.2% in June, while the Labor Force Participation Rate slipped to 61.4% from 61.5%.

Meanwhile, annual wage growth, tracked by Average Hourly Earnings, moderated to 3.2% annually, down from 3.4%, signaling softer wage pressure.

The CME FedWatch Tool shows a subsequent shift in monetary policy expectations. Market participants are now pricing in a 55.9% chance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaves interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range in September. Rate hike bets have moderated to 44.1%.

FedWatch tool | Source: CME GroupMeanwhile, risk appetite has improved but only marginally, with sentiment currently in the Fear territory at 29, up from 25 in the Extreme Fear territory on Thursday, according to the Fear & Greed Index. If sustained, strong sentiment would mean risk assets are attractive to investors, thus raising the odds of a sustained recovery.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index | Source: AlternativeTechnical analysis: Bitcoin edges higher above $65,000Bitcoin holds above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $64,669 and the upward-sloping trendline support near $62,921, which keeps the near-term bias moderately bullish despite the broader consolidation. The Parabolic SAR at $62,275 reinforces the underlying demand, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 on the daily chart and a mildly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading hint that buyers still retain control, although upside momentum appears measured rather than impulsive.

BTC/USDT daily chartImmediate support lies at the recent pivot around $65,000, followed by the 50-day EMA at $64,669 and then the rising trendline near $62,921, ahead of the Parabolic SAR level at $62,275. On the flip side, initial resistance emerges at the 100-day EMA at $66,986, with a more significant barrier at the 200-day EMA around $73,382, where a sustained break would be needed to reopen a stronger bullish extension in the days ahead.

Technical outlook: Gold climbs as buyers tighten gripGold holds a constructive near-term bias as it remains above the 50-week, 100-week and 200-week EMAs at $4,215, respectively, and has broken above the prior downward resistance trendline now offering support near $4,060.

Still, upside progress is tempered by the Parabolic SAR at $4,441 acting as immediate resistance, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative reading and the RSI hovering around the neutral 50 mark, hinting at a consolidative rather than impulsive bullish tone.

XAU/USD weekly chartOn the topside, initial resistance is defined by the Parabolic SAR at $4,441, where a sustained break would open the way for a more decisive advance. On the downside, the first layer of support lies at the broken trendline barrier turned floor around $4,060, followed by dynamic support at the 50-week EMA at $4,215 and deeper medium-term cushions at the 100-week EMA at $3,777, levels that collectively reinforce the broader bullish structure as long as they remain intact.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Bitcoin, altcoins, stablecoins FAQs Bitcoin is the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, a virtual currency designed to serve as money. This form of payment cannot be controlled by any one person, group, or entity, which eliminates the need for third-party participation during financial transactions.

Altcoins are any cryptocurrency apart from Bitcoin, but some also regard Ethereum as a non-altcoin because it is from these two cryptocurrencies that forking happens. If this is true, then Litecoin is the first altcoin, forked from the Bitcoin protocol and, therefore, an “improved” version of it.

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to have a stable price, with their value backed by a reserve of the asset it represents. To achieve this, the value of any one stablecoin is pegged to a commodity or financial instrument, such as the US Dollar (USD), with its supply regulated by an algorithm or demand. The main goal of stablecoins is to provide an on/off-ramp for investors willing to trade and invest in cryptocurrencies. Stablecoins also allow investors to store value since cryptocurrencies, in general, are subject to volatility.

Bitcoin dominance is the ratio of Bitcoin's market capitalization to the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies combined. It provides a clear picture of Bitcoin’s interest among investors. A high BTC dominance typically happens before and during a bull run, in which investors resort to investing in relatively stable and high market capitalization cryptocurrency like Bitcoin. A drop in BTC dominance usually means that investors are moving their capital and/or profits to altcoins in a quest for higher returns, which usually triggers an explosion of altcoin rallies.