Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Gold remains capped as hawkish Fed, higher bond yields and Iran risks support USD

EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA support near 180.00

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains steady near $94.00 as oil prices ease

Gold (XAU) trades near $4,280 an ounce on Friday, while silver (XAG) remains below $64. Both metals are heading for weekly losses. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.18% on Thursday and the US dollar reached a two-month high. The higher yields make bonds more attractive than metals that pay no interest. A stronger dollar also makes gold and silver more expensive for buyers using other currencies.

Silver has dropped more sharply than gold this week. The fresh U.S. data added to the pressure on both metals. The jobless claims dropped to 197,000 and the September flash composite PMI rose to 58.4.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also said that further tightening may be needed. Oil eased early Friday on reports of a possible deal between the U.S. and Iran, which could help calm inflation concerns. For now, both metals need some relief from the dollar and Treasury yields to sustain a recovery.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,400 Resistance and $4,240 Support
Gold Charts: Short-Term Pressure, Long-Term Uptrend
The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price remains under pressure. It broke below the 50-day SMA around $4,300 and lost 0.32% on Thursday. The RSI remains below the midline, which shows pressure in the short term. However, a break above $4,400 is required to ease this pressure and push prices toward the 200-day SMA at $4,530.

As long as the gold price remains below $4,530, prices will likely remain in a negative trend in the short term and face further downside. Immediate support on Friday is $4,240 and a break below this level will open the way for a drop toward the $4,150 area. A break below $4,150 will push the gold price further down toward the $4,000 mark.

Get real-time market updates

The weekly chart for spot gold also shows that the price remains above the ascending trendline that stretches from the October 2023 lows. The recent correction from January 2026 is due to profit-taking. The price has been consolidating below the $5,000 mark to stabilize the gains. But a break below $4,150 will likely break this ascending trendline and push prices towards the $4,000 area.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts
Gold Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Puts $4,240 in Focus
The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows negative price action around $4,300. The price has formed a head and shoulders pattern in the short term. A break below $4,240 will likely push the gold price further down in the short term.

Silver Price Forecast: $63 Support and $72 Breakout Level
Silver Price Consolidates Between $63 and $70
The daily chart for spot silver shows that prices have been consolidating between $70 and $63 in the short term. Spot silver broke out of the triangle pattern in August 2026, but prices failed to break above $72. This triggered consolidation above the 50-day SMA.

While gold has broken below the 50-day SMA, silver is still consolidating around this SMA. This shows consolidation in the short term. The RSI remains below the midline but has been hovering around it for the past three weeks.

Silver Support at $63.10 and Recovery Above $67.50
The 4-hour chart for spot silver also highlight the importance of current support around $63. The chart shows that the price is supported by an ascending broadening wedge pattern.

The immediate support remains at $63.10 and a break below this level will likely push the price toward the $60 area.  break below $60 will push prices towards the $50-$55 zone, which is considered a strong support in the long term.

However, a recovery above $67.50 will likely indicate another move toward the $72 area in the short term. Silver needs to break above $72 to open the way for a strong rally toward the $90 region.

What to Watch Next for Gold and Silver Prices
Gold and silver are struggling to recover from the lows as high Treasury yields and strong US dollar keep buyers cautious. In my view, gold needs to rally back above $4,400 to regain strength. A break below $4,240 could lead to deeper drop. Silver needs to hold $63.10. A break below $63.10 would suggest a move to $60. If silver breaks $67.50, it could test $72 again. The next U.S. data and Fed comments may determine whether yields ease enough to give both metals room to recover.

Read more: Strong US PMI Puts $60 Support in Silver at Risk

When thinking about how USD/JPY is likely to finish 2026, the outlook really comes down to one question: where does the Fed rates path go from here?

The final stretch of 2026 is approaching, and North America's major currencies have begun to show a shift in the strength dynamics seen earlier in the year. New expectations of a more aggressive monetary policy stance, particularly in the United States, could be significantly reshaping the outlook for the region. At the same time, this backdrop, combined with potential trade tensions across North America, may become one of the most important drivers of currency performance in the months ahead.

In this environment, both the Canadian dollar and the Mexican peso continue to show difficulties in consistently recovering against a U.S. dollar that has regained strength, particularly after the recent shift in expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve. If confidence in the USD remains resilient through the final part of the year, both USD/CAD and USD/MXN could continue to reflect a meaningful degree of indecision or even develop more sustained bullish pressure during the months ahead.

Are North America's Central Banks Moving in Different Directions?
As this article is being written, North America's central banks continue to follow different monetary policy paths. For now, Banco de México still maintains the highest interest rate in the region at 6.5%, although it has already reduced the benchmark from the 7.00% level seen at the beginning of the year. The institution continues to adopt a cautious approach while evaluating incoming economic data, supporting a relatively neutral outlook for the coming months.

Bank of Canada, meanwhile, remains the institution that has made the fewest changes compared with its regional peers. It has not adjusted interest rates since October 2025, leaving the policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, the lowest level in North America. This reflects a wait-and-see strategy as policymakers continue to assess economic conditions before making any new adjustments.

The Federal Reserve, by contrast, has begun to reshape the regional landscape. It is currently the only central bank that has resumed raising interest rates, moving the benchmark rate from 3.75% to 4.00%. In addition, the institution has started to signal a more aggressive stance for the months ahead, a dynamic that could continue to support the U.S. dollar against its regional counterparts.

North America Interest Rates Table 2025–2026

Color scale: Green to red. Green represents higher interest rates, while red represents lower rates in each country.

Source: Data - Tradingeconomics

North America Interest Rates Chart 2025–2026

Source: Tradingeconomics

The contrast between the three institutions becomes clear when looking at the evolution of interest rates over recent months. Mexico continues to maintain the highest policy rate in the region, the Bank of Canada the lowest, while the Federal Reserve stands out as the only institution that has resumed rate hikes during 2026. These differences not only reflect distinct rate levels but also monetary policy approaches that are becoming increasingly divergent across the three economies. These differences are also evident in the most recent communications from each central bank:

During its latest meeting, the Bank of Canada left rates unchanged at 2.25% on September 2. Although policymakers continue to acknowledge upside inflation risks, they made it clear that they are not yet prepared to begin a new tightening cycle, meaning any future adjustments will remain data dependent.

 
Banco de México's most recent decision took place on August 6 and concluded with rates unchanged at 6.5%. While the prolonged easing cycle appears to have come to an end, the institution continues to stress that rate hikes are not part of its base-case scenario, maintaining a prudent stance while assessing inflation trends.

 
In contrast, the Federal Reserve raised rates to 4.00% during its September 16 meeting. Policymakers highlighted the strength of economic activity and the labor market, while inflation continues to show insufficient signs of slowing, leaving the door open to further rate increases.

 
With that in mind, inflation remains one of the most important drivers of monetary policy decisions across the region. In Canada, inflation has eased to the 3.0% area from 3.2% in May. Although still above the 2.00% target, price pressures continue to moderate gradually. In Mexico, inflation slowed to 3.26% in August, making it the economy that has shown the clearest signs of disinflation across North America. In the United States, however, inflation remains near 3.4% after reaching a peak of 4.2% in May, still well above the Federal Reserve's 2.00% objective.

North America Inflation Trends 2025–2026

Source: Tradingeconomics

These figures paint a mixed picture. Mexico continues to display a more pronounced moderation in inflationary pressures, while Canada and especially the United States are still dealing with more persistent price pressures. This distinction is significant because it helps explain why markets are beginning to price in a more aggressive path for the Federal Reserve, supported both by recent comments from policymakers and by inflation data that has yet to show sustained improvement. Meanwhile, both Banxico and the Bank of Canada appear to have greater room to maintain cautious policy approaches in the months ahead.

Taken together, the differences that have started to emerge among North America's central banks could become one of the most important drivers of currency performance through the final months of 2026. While the Federal Reserve is moving toward a more restrictive stance supported by inflation that continues to show resilience, both Banxico and the Bank of Canada are maintaining more cautious approaches, aided by greater relative stability in their inflation trends. This divergence could begin to alter the balance of strength that prevailed throughout much of the year and restore some momentum to the U.S. dollar within the region, particularly if expectations for higher interest rates continue to build in the months ahead. Under this backdrop, the Mexican peso could begin to lose part of the advantage derived from its interest rate differential, while the Canadian dollar may continue to face challenges against a U.S. market supported by higher bond yields and the dollar's traditional role as a safe-haven asset. As a result, both USD/CAD and USD/MXN could begin to develop periods of greater indecision or even more sustained buying pressure over the coming months.

Has the Trade War Made a Comeback?
As 2026 draws to a close, one of the developments regaining attention is the growing trade dispute between the United States and Canada. On July 20, the United States announced tariffs of up to 50% on selected Canadian products and, following the collapse of negotiations, those measures took effect on August 22. In response, Canada imposed retaliatory measures on approximately CAD 27 billion worth of U.S. goods, including tariffs that also reach 50%.

Tensions escalated again on September 8, when the new Canadian measures officially came into force and the United States announced potential import restrictions on selected Canadian products. This measure, which would go beyond traditional tariffs, is expected to take effect on September 29.

Against this backdrop, sentiment toward the Canadian dollar has started to weaken. Not only has there been little progress toward a resolution, but the dispute could also begin to undermine perceptions of Canada's economic stability. This impact can be observed in the CXY, the index that measures the average strength of the Canadian dollar, where several episodes of trade escalation have coincided with declines in the indicator. Moreover, the currency has struggled to regain the highs seen months ago near the 72-point level, suggesting that the trade conflict is having a meaningful impact on demand for CAD beyond monetary policy considerations.

Source: Data TVC - Tradingview

This situation could also extend some of its effects to Mexico over the coming months. The dispute increases the risk that the United States adopts a tougher stance during the review of the USMCA, creating additional uncertainty around regional trade. In addition, Mexico is participating in discussions involving some of the sectors currently at the center of the dispute with Canada, meaning it cannot be ruled out that similar pressures could eventually emerge for Mexico as well. Under that scenario, the review of the trade agreement could increase the risk premium attached to both CAD and MXN.

As a result, while the recent escalation helps explain part of the weakness observed in the Canadian dollar, it also leaves the door open to indirect effects on Mexico. Unless meaningful diplomatic progress or stronger trade agreements emerge, a sense of caution may continue to dominate sentiment around USD/MXN. At the same time, with Canada being the primary target of the current measures, the dispute could continue to support more sustained buying pressure around USD/CAD in the months ahead.

USD/CAD Shows Signs of Growing Indecision

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

A Potential Trading Range Emerges: Price action in USD/CAD over recent months has started to reflect a lack of clear direction on the weekly chart. So far, the pair has been unable to develop a meaningful trend and has instead continued to trade within a broad range that contains most of the recent price activity. If prices remain within this structure, it may be difficult to see the beginning of a more defined trend, leaving the current range as the most important technical reference for the months ahead.

 
RSI: The RSI continues to trade near the 50 neutral level, a situation that reflects a balance between buying and selling pressure over the past 14 weeks. If this behavior persists, the sense of market indecision is likely to remain a relevant feature of the chart.

 
MACD: A similar scenario can be observed in the MACD, whose histogram continues to fluctuate around the 0 neutral line. This reading also reflects balance in the average strength of moving averages and reinforces the idea of a market that currently lacks a dominant direction.

 
Key Levels:

1.41388: Key resistance level that coincides with the upper boundary of the trading range and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. Price action that manages to consolidate above this area could begin to favor a more dominant bullish bias and support the development of a more relevant upward structure in the months ahead.

 
1.38670: The midpoint of the chart, which coincides with an important equilibrium zone and the 50-period simple moving average. As long as prices continue to develop near this reference, the current neutral outlook may continue to dominate and reinforce the importance of the existing lateral range.

 
1.35543: Key support level located at the lower boundary of the range and below the chart's most relevant moving averages. Sustained price action below this area could signal a significant break of the current structure and open the door to a more dominant bearish bias over the coming months.

 
USD/MXN Begins to Challenge Its Dominant Downtrend

Source: StoneX, Tradingview

The major trendline enters a risk zone: One of the most relevant features of USD/MXN price action is the broad downtrend that has dominated the pair for several months. However, this structure has started to show signs of exhaustion and is increasingly moving into a risk zone. If selling pressure fails to regain momentum, the prevailing downtrend could lose relevance and give way to a period of greater indecision or even a more pronounced bullish bias in the months ahead.

 
RSI: The RSI continues to fluctuate around the 50 neutral level, reflecting a balance between buyers and sellers. This reading supports the possibility that the market may continue moving through a period of uncertainty and limited directional conviction.

 
MACD: A similar picture can be observed in the MACD, whose histogram remains very close to the 0 level, reflecting balance in moving average momentum and the absence of a dominant trend. As long as this dynamic persists, indecision may continue to play a significant role within the chart.

 
Key Levels:

18.15: Major resistance located near important highs from previous months and also aligned with the 200-period simple moving average. Price action that manages to consolidate above this level could signal the beginning of a more dominant bullish bias and support the formation of a new long-term uptrend.

 
17.60: A nearby barrier that coincides with the 50-period simple moving average and an important retracement zone on the chart. If price continues to trade around this level, a lack of clear direction could remain the dominant theme, potentially increasing the relevance of a broader trading range.

 
16.95: Key support located at the 2026 lows and considered the most important downside barrier on the chart. A sustained break below this level could restore momentum to the bearish bias and extend the downtrend as the dominant market structure over the coming months.

 
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst

Follow him on: @julianpineda25

Two conversions put the installation numbers in silver terms, with the assumptions stated. The first is the American quarter. Its 11.4 gigawatts embed roughly 2.5 Moz of silver at this year’s silver content per gigawatt. That content, about 6.7 tonnes per gigawatt, is a working figure rather than a published one. It is the survey’s 151 Moz forecast divided by an assumed 700 gigawatts of cell production this year. The survey itself expects mainstream cells to fall below 5 milligrams per watt by 2027, which is the same as 5 tonnes per gigawatt. Silver Rising used a range that started at 12 tonnes per gigawatt.

At that rate the quarter embeds about 4.4 Moz. Either way, that metal was consumed when the cells were made, mostly in Asia and mostly in earlier quarters. A strong installation quarter confirms demand that has already happened rather than adding new demand. The second is China’s fleet of 1,286 gigawatts. It was built when panels carried far more silver than today, at 10 to 15 tonnes per gigawatt. At those rates the fleet embeds roughly 410 to 620 Moz. That silver is a stock, sealed into panels for twenty-five years or more. It is the physical basis of the one solar claim that survives this year unchanged: silver already installed does not come back.

What This Means to Silver Investors For this year’s balance, the numbers are worse than the growth story promised, and it is better to say so plainly. The volume argument that opened the solar chapter of Silver Rising is two years stale. Panels are going up at close to last year’s pace worldwide. BloombergNEF’s global estimate for 2026 is 649 gigawatts, barely below 2025’s 655. Each of those panels carries less silver than the one before. On the survey’s own forecast, solar silver demand falls 19% this year. On the lowest published estimate it falls by around 30%. A deficit that halves is a different market from a deficit that widens. The assumption that solar demand grows every year no longer holds.

Two things survive, and they are the two a long-term holder needs. The first is that the market stays short even on the lowest published estimate. The shortfall shrinks to roughly 21.9 Moz from 46.3 Moz. It is still a shortfall, and it runs into the sixth consecutive year of deficit on the figures from Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. The longer-term case for silver rests on that shortfall persisting, not on any single demand line growing.

The second is the stock argument. Every gigawatt installed this year locks its silver away for a quarter of a century. The fleet already built holds hundreds of millions of ounces, and none of it returns to the market within any holder’s investment horizon. Thrifting, the cutting of silver per cell, slows the rate at which new silver is locked away. It does not release any of the silver already locked. The survey notes that recycling from old panels remains small in volume.

The cutting has further to run, and the survey says so. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute expect silver per cell to fall by a further 15% to 20% this year. The full replacement of silver with copper is a different matter. Copper electroplating, which lays copper onto the cell in place of silver paste, is in pilot production. The survey says yield and reliability problems mean mass production of pure copper pastes is unlikely this year.

Its own view is that silver will remain essential to the industry, with a defensible place in high-reliability cells. So the substitution story has a direction and no date. The checkpoint that does have a date is the Metals Focus interim update in November. It will show whether the survey’s 151 Moz or J.P. Morgan’s lower figure was closer, and the answer will be graded in print either way.

Solar demand is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter. If you’ve at least considered investing in silver, I strongly encourage you to sign up, because it takes just $1 to get both. Get full Silver Catalyst Newsletter and Silver Rising book for $1 today.

Thank you.

The Silver Engineer

COMEX Silver withdrawals raise questions as physical demand builds [Video]

Gold, BTC/USD Talking Points:
The past two weeks are non-ideal environments for non-yielding assets like gold and Bitcoin. Treasury yields are surging and even though stocks have held up relatively well so far, there’s less reason for buyers to hit the bid in markets like XAU/USD or BTC/USD.
Nonetheless, Bitcoin set a fresh high earlier this week, even as gold prices remain on their back foot.
When a market should go down but doesn’t, something is up, and that something could be impactful for what lies ahead than what we already know. That’s the story in Bitcoin right now as the rally is now more than a month old following the massive breakout triggered by the larger Treasury buyback announcement from Scott Bessent. Interestingly, gold had already broken out at that point and the announcement provided a similar bullish prod, although it was lesser in gold than BTC.

But while gold topped shortly after that move, Bitcoin has continued to power higher, even in a backdrop that usually wouldn’t be supportive of such. With US yields surging and continuing that run today, going along with a more hawkish FOMC, gold has continued to draw down. But Bitcoin has just continued to rally.

And even at this point there’s a clear disparity as gold is down for a test of the FOMC lows while Bitcoin is testing a major spot of support.

Gold Re-Tests FOMC Lows, Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Gold Descending Triangle
While it’s not too late at this point, given that we have seen the sell-off stall above last week’s low, which goes along with a green weekly bar from last week for gold, there is a bearish setup in the metal right now that could be justified for a break and test of fresh lows.

The lower highs over the past three weeks are meaningful, especially with last week’s hold at 4400 and this week’s hold at 4360. While horizontal support isn’t as solid as one would prefer for such formations, the fact that sellers have gotten increasingly more aggressive on bounces highlights that, eventually, that support could give way and that points to a push towards the 4100 zone, which was resistance back in July before the post-FOMC breakout.

Gold Four-Hour Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

Bitcoin
There have been multiple prior periods where Bitcoin has outperformed gold, as if the world’s preference for an anti-fiat vehicle suddenly shifted. I talked about this in the article yesterday, highlighting specific periods in 2020 and 2024 where gold slumped and Bitcoin broke out in a very big way.

That’s started to happen again, and even as gold has slid from the highs after that pop from the Treasury buyback announcement, Bitcoin has continued to gain ground with another fresh high posting earlier this week.

So far, there’s been a three-day pullback from that high and at this point, BTC/USD is testing a big spot of support as taken from prior resistance – the same swing that set the high back in May of this year.

BTC/USD Daily Chart
Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview

--- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro

Euro: Decline nears support zone against US Dollar – Scotiabank

USD/JPY momentum has shifted sharply higher, putting a major resistance confluence in focus as U.S. and Japanese event risk b.

Foreign currency strategists at Crédit Agricole expects gradual Mexican Peso depreciation throughout 2027, despite recognising the support that higher yields give emerging-market currencies. The Mexican Peso is among the currencies Crédit Agricole expects to weaken even as much of the emerging-market sector withstands higher US interest rates.

The bank forecasts the US Dollar to Mexican Peso exchange rate (USD/MXN) at 18.00 in December 2026, rising to 18.25 in March 2027 and 18.50 in June.

Its targets then reach 18.75 in September and 19.00 in December 2027.

Against the bank’s 22 September reference rate of 17.27, the final target implies a 10% rise in USD/MXN, equivalent to roughly a 9.1% fall in the Peso’s Dollar value.

Crédit Agricole explicitly separates Mexico from its more favourable regional views:

“From an FX regional angle, we expect a slight appreciation of Asia vs the USD, and of CE4 vs the EUR, but expect more weakness in Latam (the COP and MXN in particular).”

Higher yields offer support, but currency losses remain a risk The bank acknowledges that emerging-market currencies have resisted pressure from rising US yields:

“Since the beginning of July, the US 10Y yield has increased by about 60bp. Yet, during the same period, our EM FX index appreciated vs the USD.”

On the interest-rate advantage over the US, it adds:

“Third, the average EM-US carry gap has remained decent, in spite of the recent increase in US short-term rates. This is because higher oil prices have also put a floor under EM short-term rates.”

Even so, the bank cautions:

“We do not expect a full-fledged appreciation of EM FX vs the USD.”

For Mexico, Crédit Agricole forecasts the policy rate remaining at 6.50% through December 2027, matching the current rate in Banco de México’s official figures.

The distinction between interest income and currency performance also featured in Rabobank’s warnings about Peso carry in May.

Our reading is that attractive yields alone do not invalidate Crédit Agricole’s forecast: investors can collect interest while losing value when Peso holdings are converted back into Dollars.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

The 10-year yield closed Wednesday at 5.11 percent, its highest since July 2007, the five-year crossed 5 percent for the first time since 2007, and October’s hike is now priced at about 70 percent after the flash PMIs showed the fastest business activity since 2021 with input and output prices at multi-year highs. Governor Barr said more hikes are needed. Brent settled near $103, the dollar rose against every major currency, and gold settled at $4,324.40, down $52 on the day and $60 in two sessions.

The point is that this is not a short-term rally. It’s either a medium- or a long-term rally in the USD Index.

The USDX once again held above the rising, long-term support line despite several attempts to move below it.

How many times have you read that the USD is trash because of twin deficits, Fed’s approach, US political situation, inflation, and so on and so forth?

Probably more than you care to count.

And yet – the chart doesn’t lie. The USD Index has been on the rise since 2008.

For almost 20 years!

The big trend here is up, and the USD Index is now starting to rally from the lower border of the broad trading channel. This is an exceptionally bullish long-term setup and one that other markets won’t be able to ignore.

The base for the rally was huge – bigger than the previous ones. And I wrote about it when it formed – in my gold price forecast for September 2026, I warned that this “breakdown” was really a bottoming process and that this was bullish, not bearish. We previously had broad bottoms that usually took the form of double bottoms. This time, it was a multi-bottom, which means that the implications are even more bullish.

We have to remember what happened after the final bottoms of the previous broad bottoms – I marked those cases with green arrows and green, dashed lines. The USD Index soared in all those cases, and I think we’ll see the same thing also this time.

Implications for precious metals used to be either bearish or extremely bearish. Right now, we’re very likely in the latter type of analogy. The reason is that right now we’re after a powerful rally and a major top and this is what we saw only two times in the past years – in 2008 and in 2011-2012. When the USD Index soared – from a broad bottom – then the precious metals (and copper) truly plunged.

This time, copper has support of rising stocks, but this is likely to end as well.

· Higher USD makes U.S. exports less competitive.

·  High rates make credit more expensive (not to mention the burden of the higher mortgage payments).

·  And higher oil – I don’t think I need to explain this one.

The geopolitical situation continues to support higher oil and higher USD, so those technicals don’t work in isolation.

Thank you for reading today’s analysis – I appreciate that you took the time to dig deeper and that you read the entire piece. If you’d like to get more (and extra details not available to 99% investors), I invite you to stay updated with our free analyses – sign up for our free gold newsletter now.

Thank you.

Sincerely,

Przemysław K. Radomski, CFA

Silver tests the bottom of its range as rising interest rates increase breakdown risk, with $60 potentially offering support below.

Gold Elliott Wave: Forecasting the path ahead

Silver price falls as Fed hawkish outlook drives US yields higher

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD two hawks, one winner, a range that hasn't cracked yet [Video]

Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius

Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.

The Dollar thrived with EUR/USD closing below the 1.1400 handle

GBP/USD forecast: Two hawks, one winner, a range that hasn't cracked yet

Rising Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, higher Treasury yields and renewed dollar strength are increasing downside pressure across markets.

The GBP/USD and Dow Jones charts are now testing defining support levels, while daily momentum indicators point to oversold conditions and potential reversal risks.

Source: CME FedWatch Tool

The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at the October meeting has risen above 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. This has supported the U.S. Dollar Index and helped push it back toward its 2026 uptrend near 101.

Although the latest advance has been steep across currency and bond markets, momentum is becoming increasingly stretched. Important technical patterns are also emerging across major charts:

The dollar and euro are testing daily overbought and oversold conditions last seen in June and near yearly extremes, increasing reversal risks below 101 in the DXY and above 1.13 in EUR/USD.

GBP/USD is testing support extending from November 2025 near 1.32.

Gold and silver are testing the boundaries of the July–September advance while maintaining their bullish bias, although that structure is increasingly challenged by the resurgence in Treasury yields and the dollar.

U.S. indices are experiencing a pullback after the Nasdaq surged by more than 1,000 points this week toward its record highs, while the Dow has extended its decline to 4-month lows.

The broader cross-asset picture is becoming increasingly stretched, with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rising toward highs last seen in 2007 and overbought momentum conditions last seen in 2023.

Markets may now be one move away from confirming another wave of distress or reversing the current risk-off pressure.

I go over these charts in my weekly webinars

Register here for the next session

GBP/USD Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame — Log Scale

Source: TradingView

The GBP/USD chart has been trading within a contracting sideways range since November 2025.

The latest dollar rally has pressured the pound toward the lower boundary of this range, near the yearly lows and the 1.32 area.

A close below 1.3200 would expose 1.3100 and the psychological level at 1.3000, increasing the risk of further downside.

However, oversold RSI readings on both the hourly and daily time frames, combined with year-long support, could help trigger a bullish rebound.

A close back above 1.3340 and 1.3400 would help reinstate the short-term bullish bias.

Dow Jones Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame — Log Scale

Source: TradingView

From a daily perspective, the Dow Jones is still holding below the uptrend support line that has been in place since the April 2026 lows.

The index is also holding above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the May–August advance near 51,200.

Bearish scenario: A breakdown below 51,200 would target the 78.6% and 100% Fibonacci retracement levels near 50,300 and 49,000, respectively.

A sustained move below these levels would increase the risk of a broader bearish outlook for the year.

Bullish scenario: Reclaiming 51,900, 52,700 and 53,400 would support the continuation of the bullish bias toward 54,000 and the yearly high near 54,800.

These levels are defined using the Fibonacci extension tool applied to the May–August–September wave.

A move above 54,800 would reinforce the uptrend and expose the trendline connecting the higher highs since April 2026, near 57,000.

The Fed’s tone, U.S. Treasury yields and crude oil’s price direction will likely play a key role in shaping the next potential market trends.

Written by Razan Hilal, CMT

Follow on X: @Rh_waves

EURUSD edged higher on Thursday morning as bears take a breather after the latest three-day bear leg which accelerated on Wednesday, resulting in 0.5% daily fall.

The Euro remains under increased pressure from growing expectations for more aggressive Fed’s stance on monetary policy, which was additionally boosted by much better than expected US flash PMI data for September.

Oversold daily studies likely prompted profit-taking, which so far showed very limited action and are unlikely to dent larger bears but rather to mark positioning for fresh push lower.

The pair rides on extended third wave of five-wave cycle from 1.1711 (Aug 28 top) that pressures its 200% Fibo expansion (1.1362) and nearby July 28 low (1.1353), guarding key support at 1.1324 (2026 low, posted on June 24).

Extended upticks should be capped under barriers at 1.1470/80 zone (broken Fibo 61.8% /daily cloud base / falling 10DMA) to keep bears intact and offer better levels to join larger downtrend.

Res: 1.1415; 1.1440; 1.1480; 1.1500
Sup: 1.1368; 1.1353; 1.1324; 1.1300

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

EUR/USD tests two-month low: What's driving the decline?

EUR/USD fell to 1.1378 on Thursday, with the US dollar holding near a two-month high. The dollar has been supported by strong macroeconomic data, which have heightened inflation concerns and expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening.

According to S&P Global, US private sector business activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than five years in September. Improvements were recorded in both the services and manufacturing sectors, although price pressures also intensified.

Several Fed officials also backed last week’s rate hike and again highlighted inflation risks. Against this backdrop, markets now estimate the probability of another rate hike in October at approximately 70%, up from 55% the previous day.

Elevated oil prices remain an additional factor. Uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations is keeping oil prices high and continuing to fuel inflation expectations.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 EUR/USD chart, the market completed a downward move towards 1.1369, followed by a corrective rebound to 1.1392. A consolidation range is now effectively forming between these levels.

A further move higher towards 1.1396 is possible, followed by a decline towards 1.1360.

The MACD indicator supports the short-term bearish scenario. Its signal line remains below zero and is pointing firmly downwards.

On the H1 EUR/USD chart, the market completed another downward move towards 1.1369. A consolidation range is currently forming above this level.

Another move higher towards 1.1396 is expected today.

The Stochastic oscillator supports this short-term corrective scenario. Its signal line remains above 50 and is pointing firmly upwards towards 80.

Conclusion EUR/USD has fallen to a two-month low as the US dollar continues to benefit from strong US economic data and hawkish Fed signals. US private sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in more than five years in September, intensifying inflation concerns and pushing the estimated probability of an October rate hike to around 70%. Elevated oil prices, amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran negotiations, are adding further pressure to the inflation outlook.

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD may see a short-term corrective move towards 1.1396. Once this move is complete, the H4 scenario envisages a renewed decline towards 1.1360. The near-term direction will depend on upcoming US data and Fed commentary, with the US dollar likely to remain supported in the current environment.

RoboForex Ltdhttps://www.roboforex.com/

RoboForex Ltd is a reputable financial brokerage company that has been operating since 2009. It provides reliable access to the largest financial markets with competitive conditions.