Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold settled slightly higher Friday despite being rejected by the 50-day moving average at $4,317.56 and a key 50% level at $4,319.61.
The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through $4,235.17 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The minor trend is also down. A trade through $4,244.27 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.
The long-term range is $3,942.10 to $4,697.11. Its retracement zone is $4,319.61 to $4,230.51. Gold has been testing this zone for support since September 2, including posting a pair of main bottoms at $4,282.62 and $4,235.17, and the minor bottom at $4,244.27.
Retracement zone resistance is $4,384.59 to $4,405.59. The September main top at $4,399.67 fell inside this zone.
The main trend is controlling my downside bias with the close under the 50-day MA at $4,317.56 steering momentum. Overcoming the 50-day MA will weaken my outlook and could lead to a bullish shift in momentum that could lead to a near-term test of the main top at $4,399.67 and possibly a change in trend to up.
The price I am eyeing on the downside is the 61.8% level at $4,230.51. This could be major support or a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the downside.
What to Watch The 50-day at $4,317.56 and the 50% level at $4,319.61 rejected Spot Gold on Friday. The rate trade kept the metal below that cluster all week. October hike odds at 66% and December at 93% are not giving buyers room. The 10-year near 5.16% after reaching a 19-year high Thursday is the number Spot Gold has to trade against heading into next week.
The diplomacy story took some of the war bid away Friday. Iran’s nuclear position keeps the talks from becoming a clean resolution. The safe-haven support is thinner than it was Monday. The rate pressure is not.
The $4,244.27 minor bottom and the $4,235.17 main bottom are the downside levels. The 61.8% at $4,230.51 is sitting below both. That area has held since early September. A break through it changes the trade. Above, buyers have to clear the 50-day cluster before the $4,384.59 to $4,405.59 resistance zone and the $4,399.67 main top come back into play. Friday’s bounce stopped $2 short of the average. That tells you where the sellers are sitting.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Exchange Rates UK Research's latest September 2026 survey of major investment banks suggests the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate will struggle to extend its 2026 gains, with the median forecast pointing to GBP/EUR around 1.1494 by Q2 2027.
With GBP/EUR currently near 1.1627, that represents a decline of approximately 1.1%.
The median forecast is broadly flat near 1.1628 for Q3 2026 before falling to 1.1494 for Q4, remaining close to that level through the first half of next year.
The range of institutional forecasts is considerably wider.
For Q2 2027, projections stretch from approximately 1.1236 to 1.1905, while the central 50% of forecasts sits around 1.1445–1.1628.
Image: GBP/EUR forecast: recent market performance, median bank forecast and forecast range, September 2026. Latest Bank Survey Points to GBP/EUR Around 1.15 The latest Exchange Rates UK Research survey suggests investment banks are generally reluctant to extrapolate sterling's gains over the past year.
The median forecast is 1.1628 for Q3 2026, effectively unchanged from current levels, before falling to 1.1494 for Q4 2026.
That 1.1494 level remains the median for Q1 and Q2 2027 and again appears around the centre of forecasts further into next year.
There is nevertheless a substantial disagreement between individual institutions.
At the bullish end for sterling, Bank of America forecasts GBP/EUR at 1.1905 through the first half of 2027, before moving above 1.20 later in the year. UBS also expects 1.18, while Credit Agricole sees 1.1765 by Q2 and 1.1905 thereafter.
The more bearish forecasts are markedly different.
ING sees GBP/EUR falling to 1.1236 by Q2 2027 and 1.1111 later in the year. SEB forecasts 1.1494 for Q2, while Natixis sees 1.1364.
MUFG is also below spot with a 1.1429 Q2 forecast.
The central message from the poll is therefore not for a dramatic sterling decline. Rather, the median suggests GBP/EUR settles around 1.15 after spending much of 2026 above that level.
Image: GBP/EUR bank forecast consensus range: median, central 50% and full provider range by quarter. Pound Holds 2026 Gains, But Momentum Has Faded Pound Sterling enters the final quarter of 2026 from a relatively strong position against the euro.
GBP/EUR started the year around 1.1462 and currently trades near 1.1627, leaving the pound approximately 1.4% higher in 2026.
The gains have not been straightforward. GBP/EUR fell below 1.14 during February before staging a strong recovery and reaching a 2026 high around 1.1827 in July.
Since then, momentum has faded.
GBP/EUR declined 0.21% in August and is down another 0.30% so far in September. The pair has slipped from around 1.169 at the start of the month to 1.163, with recent sessions producing a sequence of relatively modest declines.
Image: GBP/EUR year-to-date exchange rate performance in 2026. The changing interest-rate picture helps explain why banks are cautious about projecting another sustained sterling advance.
The Bank of England voted 6-3 to leave Bank Rate at 3.75% in September, with three policymakers favouring an immediate increase to 4.0%. UK inflation rose to 3.1% in August and the Bank said risks to the inflation outlook were tilted further to the upside, largely because of elevated energy prices.
The European Central Bank, meanwhile, raised its key rates by 25 basis points in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, as policymakers responded to persistent inflation pressures associated with the Middle East conflict.
Pound Sterling has also lost some momentum as expectations for UK rate increases have been reassessed. Recent hopes that Iran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil prices lower, potentially reducing the pressure on the Bank of England to tighten aggressively.
GBP/EUR Outlook: 1.15 Consensus, But Risks Extend from 1.12 to 1.19 The latest Exchange Rates UK Research poll presents a relatively subdued central outlook for the Pound-to-Euro exchange rate.
At 1.1627, GBP/EUR is already almost exactly in line with the Q3 median.
The median then falls to 1.1494 by the end of 2026 and remains there through Q2 2027, implying approximately 1.1% downside from current levels.
That would still leave sterling considerably above some of the weaker levels recorded earlier in the year and suggests banks expect consolidation rather than a major reversal.
The more interesting feature is the disagreement surrounding that central forecast.
By Q2 2027, the full bank range extends from roughly 1.1236 to 1.1905.
The upper end would take GBP/EUR back towards levels not seen this year, while the lower end would represent a substantial reversal of sterling's 2026 appreciation.
For euro buyers, the consensus therefore suggests today's exchange rate is slightly better than the level major banks collectively expect next year.
For now, 1.15 has emerged as the central institutional forecast for GBP/EUR into the first half of 2027, but the unusually broad range shows that the relative paths of Bank of England and ECB policy remain capable of producing a substantially different outcome.
Crédit Agricole expects renewed Yen weakness before a 2027 recovery, while JPMorgan sees near-term demand from Japanese investors. Crédit Agricole expects the US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate to climb to 163 by December 2026, even as JPMorgan identifies signs of Japanese buying interest in the Yen.
Friday's close of 157.29 leaves Crédit Agricole's year-end forecast around 3.6% above the market.
USD/JPY fell 0.97% that day, surrendering most of its weekly advance as the Yen recovered following fresh comments from Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama about US concerns over Yen weakness.
Crédit Agricole's path falls from 163 in December to 162 in March 2027, 161 in June, 158 in September and 156 in December 2027.
It argues that official currency support needs stronger backing from monetary policy:
"Record levels of intervention have capped USD/JPY's rally at 164, but for the JPY to stage a sustainable rally, the BoJ needs to accelerate the pace of its rate hikes, reducing the currency's appeal as a carry funder."
JPMorgan's 157.80 pivot has already given way JPMorgan's earlier assessment identified two support levels:
"Rate check pivot around 157.80 will provide some short term support with 156.50/60 below"
Friday's close was beneath that first level, leaving 156.50-156.60 as the next lower area to watch.
The desk saw more local Yen demand near recent USD/JPY highs, although overseas institutional investors had increased Yen selling during the week.
It also questioned how effectively intervention could offset broader pressures:
"As you know I really do not doubt the intentions but I am starting to worry about the efficacy of the actions so far in the face of what is a huge energy and fixed income shock."
Crédit Agricole similarly cites elevated oil prices and Japanese fiscal concerns as obstacles to lasting Yen gains.
The 156 end-2027 forecast is less than 1% below Friday's close, but the intervening path includes renewed Yen weakness towards 163 before that recovery.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
After coming under significant pressure in recent weeks, the EUR/USD came off its lows to finish the week on a positive note on Friday, albeit with only a mild rebound. That was not enough to prevent the exchange rate falling for the third consecutive week, as the US dollar and bond yields rallied across the board.
Scotiabank sees the Canadian Dollar as marginally undervalued, with USD/CAD momentum stretched and BoC rate hikes potentially underpriced. Four consecutive daily gains gave way to a modest retreat in the US Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD) exchange rate on Friday, as Scotiabank questioned how much further the rally could run.
The pair finished at 1.4140, down 0.05% on the day but still around 1.1% higher over the week.
Scotiabank's concern centres on the interest-rate expectations supporting US Dollar demand:
"Wider US-Canada spreads have been a major headwind for the CAD over the past couple of weeks, however the move feels somewhat stretched with limited scope for further tightening in Fed expectations while the BoC feels somewhat underpriced."
Its Friday assessment put the probability of an October Bank of Canada quarter-point hike at roughly 50%, with 34 basis points of cumulative tightening priced by December.
Thursday's retail sales release showed a 0.7% July decline, followed by an advance estimate of a 1.3% August rebound that remains subject to revision.
Scotiabank said the figures had little currency impact and placed USD/CAD fair value at 1.4055, suggesting modest Canadian Dollar undervaluation.
That valuation estimate is roughly 85 pips below Friday's close, without specifying when the exchange rate might return there.
Image: USD to CAD exchange rate performance over the last week The bank still classifies the short-term technical outlook as bullish/neutral, despite signs of stretched momentum:
"The rally in USDCAD looks overdone at this point however, with momentum already in overbought territory given the RSI at 72."
It expects considerable resistance around 1.4200 after the pair struggled to extend gains above the mid-1.41s.
Should the advance reverse, Scotiabank sees relatively few obstacles before a larger pullback:
"To the downside, we see little in terms of support between current spot and the psychologically important 1.40 level."
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Much like we saw back in June when Kevin Warsh first shocked markets by sounding far more hawkish than what anyone had expected, weakness in gold only went so far, as buyers showed up at the $4k handle and then held the lows for more than a month before ultimately tilting a breakout in August following Warsh's next meeting atop the Fed.
As we headed towards the latter stages of Q3 and into Q4, the Fed had just hiked rates in a hawkish FOMC meeting, while the likes of the ECB and BoJ had also tightened their respective policies. Oil prices remained elevated amid the prolonged US-Iran conflict.
Spot gold daily chart shows larger trend structure. Source: TradingView Bullish Reversal Short-Term Despite continued signs of downward pressure, a one-day bullish reversal signal triggered on Friday, resulting in a higher daily low of $4,255 and a higher daily high of $4,316. Notably, resistance was seen at the 50-day moving average. A rally above Wednesday’s high of $4,369 would show further strength and a reclaim of the 20-day moving average.
If gold does not first fall below $4,235, a double bottom bullish reversal would be signaled on a rally above the recent high of $4,400 on the daily chart, while a weekly breakout would trigger above this week’s high of $4,383. That would also confirm the higher swing low (C). An initial key upside target from a rising ABCD pattern would be at $4,973, reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline.
Lower Support Levels Remain in Play On the downside, key potential support levels remain at the lower swing high of $4,203, which was also the top of a bottom consolidation pattern. Further down is the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement at $4,117.
Key points for the Euro 2026 Q2 outlook
The Fed delivered its first rate hike since 2023 in September, with updated projections reinforcing expectations for additional tightening into year-end.
The ECB has raised rates twice this year as policymakers confront persistent inflation pressures alongside increasing risks to the growth outlook.
The policy backdrop continues to favor the U.S. dollar, although the relative pace of Fed and ECB tightening will be critical for EUR/USD through Q4.
EUR/USD has reversed more than 3% from the August high, bringing the pair back to the same major support region that underpinned the Q3 recovery.
Monthly momentum is deteriorating into the quarterly close, raising the stakes for the October open as Euro tests a pivotal technical threshold.
EUR/USD enters the fourth quarter at a critical juncture after the summer recovery gave way to renewed selling into the close of September. The fundamental backdrop remains challenging as both the Fed and ECB confront persistent inflation, although differences in growth, policy expectations, and the pace of additional tightening could prove increasingly important into year-end. With Euro once again testing a major technical threshold, the coming quarter will hinge on whether the recent decline can stabilize or develops into a broader correction.
Fed Keeps Price Stability Front and Center
In September, the Federal Reserve raised its target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, marking the first rate increase since 2023. The decision was unanimous, with the accompanying policy statement highlighting solid economic activity, resilient domestic spending, strong productivity growth, robust capital investment, and a steady labor market. During the subsequent press conference, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to restoring price stability as inflation remains above target for a fifth consecutive year.
Warsh pointed to three developments since the previous meeting: evidence that the economy had strengthened, little evidence that underlying inflation trends had improved, and a changed geopolitical backdrop. He stressed that the Fed looks at trends across a range of information, not just an individual data release, and declined to signal a preset sequence of moves. Warsh characterized the rate hike as removing “a dose of accommodation,” while noting that he was hard-pressed to describe broad financial conditions as restrictive.
FOMC Summary of Economic Projections
Source: FOMC
The Fed Chair’s remarks reinforced expectations for a more aggressive tightening cycle, with the updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) pointing to a resilient labor market, stronger economic growth, and more persistent inflation through the end of 2026. The latest projections also show a median federal funds rate of 4.1% through year-end 2027, before gradually declining in 2028 and 2029. Taken together, the forecasts reinforce a higher-for-longer policy outlook, with additional tightening still projected before year-end.
FOMC Interest Rate Dot Plot
Source: FOMC
The September dot plot shifted markedly higher from June, with twelve participants now see the rate at 4.125% by year-end, while four project 4.375% and two see it holding at 3.875%. The shift signals a stronger bias toward further tightening, with most policymakers now projecting at least one more quarter-point increase before year-end.
Fed Fund Futures- FedWatch Tool
Source: CME
As a result, markets are now pricing a 68% probability of another 25-basis-point Fed hike in October, with the odds of a third increase by December approaching 58%. The increasingly hawkish Fed outlook has strengthened the policy backdrop for the U.S. dollar, creating a significant headwind for EUR/USD and making it more difficult for the pair to stabilize before mounting a meaningful recovery into year-end. With additional tightening still on the table, the evolution of inflation and the relative Fed-ECB policy path will be critical in determining whether the dollar can extend its recent advance.
ECB Policy Caught Between Inflation and Growth
The European Central Bank has delivered two 25-basis-point hikes so far this year: in June, then again in September, lifting the deposit rate to 2.50%. The ECB has adopted a more restrictive policy stance as the Middle East conflict and associated energy shock intensify inflation risks across the Eurozone. The Governing Council expects inflation to remain above target for an extended period, with President Christine Lagarde emphasizing that risks remain tilted to the upside for prices and to the downside for growth.
ECB Staff Inflation Projections
Policymakers are closely monitoring the magnitude and duration of the energy shock, particularly the extent to which higher costs feed through to broader prices and wages. The baseline shows headline inflation peaking this year, while core inflation edges higher into 2027 before easing.
ECB Staff GDP Growth Projections
For now, the Eurozone economy has remained resilient, supported by broad-based second-quarter growth, improving consumer confidence, and public spending. At the same time, headline inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August from 2.9% in July, reinforcing concerns over persistent price pressures. While the ECB has not pre-committed to another increase, markets are increasingly positioned for further tightening, with traders pricing roughly a 93% probability of a December hike that would lift the deposit rate to 2.75%. A deterioration in growth or moderation in energy-driven inflation, however, could challenge those expectations
The policy backdrop continues to favor the U.S. dollar, with the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% compared with an ECB deposit rate of 2.50%. But for EUR/USD, the current rate differential may be less important than how that gap evolves into year-end. The ECB’s increasingly hawkish response to persistent inflation provides some fundamental support for the euro, while the Fed’s own tightening bias continues to underpin the greenback. With both central banks leaving the door open to further action, the relative pace of tightening—and the incoming inflation and growth data driving those expectations—will likely remain a key catalyst for EUR/USD through the fourth quarter. That said, the technical backdrop puts EUR/USD back at a major inflection zone into the close September, and the focus is on whether the bulls can stabilize this recent decline heading into the close of the year.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook: Q4 Outlook Hinges on Make-or-Break Support
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Monthly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
In our 2026 EUR/USD Q3 Outlook, we noted that Euro was testing critical support into the close of June at 1.1355/94- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the 2025 advance, the 2025 April high close, and the July low. We highlighted, “The risk / focus is on possible inflection off this zone into the start of Q3. From a trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce portions of short exposure / lower protective stops..” EUR/USD registered a close low at 1.1369 the following month before rebounding sharply with the rally extending more than 3.4% off the yearly low. The bulls exhausted just head of the yearly open in mid-August before plunging more than 3% with price once again testing key support into the close of the quarter. The focus remains on a possible inflection from this threshold heading into the October open.
EUR/USD Monthly RSI (14)
Note that monthly momentum has now fallen to the lowest levels since March of 2025 with RSI attempting to break below the 50-level. A monthly close below 1.1355 alongside a momentum break below 50 would be needed to signal that a deeper correction may be unfolding within the broader uptrend from 2022.
Euro Price Chart – EUR/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; EUR/USD on TradingView
A closer look at the weekly chart shows EUR/USD continuing to trade within the confines of a descending pitchfork extending off the yearly high. A reversal off the 75% parallel in August has broken the median-line with Euro trading just above support into the close of September at the 38.2% retracement and the April high week close (HWC) at 0.. A break / weekly close below this threshold exposes subsequent support objectives at the 2023 high close at 1.1228 and 1.1110/64- a region defined by the 38.2% retracement of the broader 2022 advance, the 2024 high-week close (HWC), and the 2025 May low-week close (LWC). Note that the 25% parallel of the broader uptrend converges on this threshold into the close of the year. Look for a larger reaction there IF reached. The next major technical consideration rests with the 100% extension of the January decline neat 1.0954.
Resistance is now eyed back at the January swing low at 1.1578 and is backed by the August high-week close at 1.1679. Note that the 75% parallel of the yearly pitchfork converges on this level in mid-October and a breach / weekly close above would be needed to suggest a more significant low is in place, and a larger recovery is underway. Subsequent resistance objectives are eyed at the yearly open, the 2025 HWC and the 2025 high close at 1.1745/75, and the 2025 high close at 1.1850. Strength surpassing this level would invalidate the yearly downtrend and mark potential resumption of the 2025 uptrend towards 1.1917 and 1.2020.
Bottom Line: EUR/USD is trading just above pivotal support into the close of Q3, and the focus is on possible inflection off this zone for guidance into year end. A good zone to reduce portions of short exposure / lower protective stops. From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.1578 IF price is heading for a break lower on this stretch with a close below 1.1355 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst
Key Points:Treasury yields are soaring, and markets could break if they keep rising at this pace.Gold bottomed mid-year and is experiencing its first meaningful pullback. Spot prices need to close above $4,400 to signal an end to this correction.Gold miners also bottomed out mid-year, and their charts are impressive, with many rallying more than 50% in just over a month. The current pullback may be forming a bull flag, potentially supporting a 25%+ rally into November if a breakout is confirmed.Mounting Bond Markets Stress The MOVE Index measures bond market stress. As of Thursday, it surged to 104 and is threatening to break out of a three-year downtrend, suggesting significant market risk ahead.
Monthly chart of the MOVE Index showing a recent rebound to 104.58 against a downtrend line connecting to the March 2023 peak of 200+. 10-Year Yield The 10-year yield sliced through 5.00% and the 2023 high. If it continues rising at this pace, something is likely to break in financial markets.
Weekly chart of US 10-year Treasury yields breaking past the previous 2023 peak above 5.00% to trade at 5.200%. Gold Big Picture A little more downside is possible, but overall, I believe we are at the halfway point of a 10-year bull run that will take gold above $10,000 by the end of the decade. In hindsight, the current pullback will likely be barely noticeable.
Weekly chart of spot gold tracking its correction to $4,278.49 after reaching a high of $5,608.35, with annotations mapping the move against the 2006 cycle toward a $10,000+ target. Gold Spot gold must close above $4,400 in the coming days or weeks to confirm an end to the current pullback. A break below $4,200 would risk triggering another round of selling into October.
Daily chart of spot gold tracking recent price action at $4,293.79, bounded between resistance at $4,400 and support at $4,200. Silver Silver needs to close above $67.50 to confirm an interim low. Progressive closes below $62.00 would open the door to further downside in October.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecasts
Daily chart of spot silver trading at $64.14, showing consolidation between resistance at $67.50 and support above the $54.74 mid-year low. Platinum Platinum needs consecutive closes above the cycle downtrend line near $1,900 to confirm a bottom. Slipping below $1,700 would signal a secondary breakdown and renewed weakness into October.
Daily chart of spot platinum consolidating at $1,773.20 between downward trendline resistance around $1,900 and key support at $1,700. GDX Miners bottomed mid-year as forecast and rallied more than 50% in just over a month. The current pullback appears to be forming a bull flag, supporting a medium-term target of $135 – $140 upon a confirmed breakout.
Daily chart of GDX consolidating at $92.37 within a downward channel between the recent $105.67 high and the $69.74 major low. GDXJ Gold juniors may also be forming a bull flag, which projects a surge toward $175 upon a confirmed breakout in October.
Daily chart of GDXJ consolidating at $120.33 inside a downward channel between the $136.25 recent peak and the $89.83 mid-year low. SILJ Silver juniors must break decisively above $31.00 to confirm a bull flag, targeting $40.00+ potentially in November.
Daily chart of SILJ trading at $29.05 within a downward consolidation channel between the $33.58 local high and the $23.06 mid-year low. Bitcoin Weekly Bitcoin surged in recent months, exceeding the May highs. The historic four-year cycle did not project a final bottom until October or November. For that pattern to be fulfilled, the current action would need to develop into a broadening bottom formation, with a lower low in Q4. A weekly close below $75,000 in October would bolster this potential.
Weekly chart of BTC/USD rebounding to $83,540.52 inside a broadening formation off the $57.7K low and below the $126.3K peak. Final Thoughts Next week’s price action—particularly Wednesday’s PCE inflation and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report—will be critical for gold’s near-term outlook.
A continued spike in Treasury yields could create a headwind for precious metals and miners. However, we would view any such weakness as temporary within the broader uptrend.
Gold miners remain a key area of focus. I believe they could be the next market leaders, and I’ll be watching their price action closely for clues about the broader trend.
For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
About the Author
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
Gold futures test support at $4,300 near the 200-day EMA within a tight range below $4,500. The gold market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Friday, as markets continue to pay close attention to interest rates, but they also tend to behave as range-bound and recognize that there is an area underneath that provides quite a bit of support. The $4,300 level has been important for quite some time, and that does not look like it is going to change anytime soon.
To the upside, the $4,500 level is a significant amount of resistance. At this point, we could even say that the market is compressing down to a $100 range between $4,300 and $4,400. This is a range that is tightening, so a move could be coming soon.
Silver remains range-bound as flat 50-day and 200-day EMAs signal consolidation, with $70 resistance and $63 support defining the next major move.
Silver Technical Analysis
Silver futures test flat 50-day and 200-day EMAs around $65 within a $60–$70 trading range. The silver market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Friday, as we are now testing the 200-day EMA and the 50-day EMA as well. The flat EMAs suggest that we are likely to see sideways behavior as traders see it as “flat.”
Silver Hates Rising Interest Rates Ultimately, this is a market that is still dealing with interest rates being noisy and positive. The 50-day EMA, as well as the 200-day EMA, both remain fairly flat, and it does suggest that the market may stay in a little bit of a range. If we can rally from here, then the $70 level above is, I believe at least a ceiling. Breaking above that would be a major turn of events, just as a breakdown below the $63 level would be a major breakdown. At that point, it could open up a drop to $60 pretty quickly.
Interest rates being as high as they are continue to cause a problem here, and with the silver market being so sensitive to interest rates, we’ll have to watch that. But ultimately, this comes down to a market that is in huge demand but, at the same time, has a little bit of a headwind. I think we will continue to compress, as those Middle Eastern headlines do not help.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.
USDJPY pulls back from new three-week high on Friday, as traders started to collect profits from the steep rally that lasted nearly two weeks.
Overbought daily stochastic, stretched 14-d momentum, south- turned RSI and persisting talks about another intervention (readiness of Japanese authorities to intervene again as well as President Trump’s concerns over weak yen, expressed in meeting with Jpanese PM) contributed to the latest move, after the rally was capped by the base of thinning daily cloud and 55DMA.
Initial reversal signal is developing on daily chart as fresh weakness pressures first Fibo support at 157.58 (23.6% of 152.88/159.03), with more work at the downside still being required to validate the signal.
Also, fresh weakness signaled a false break of Fibo barrier at 158.62 (76.4% retracement of 160.39/152.88 descend) which may result in formation of bull-trap and add to negative signals.
Daily close below 157.58 is seen as minimum requirement to keep fresh bears in play for deeper pullback towards 156.80/70 zone (10DMA / Fibo 38.2%).
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The South African Reserve Bank just raised its rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%. This move shows a strong commitment to keeping inflation expectations in check, despite the economy shrinking last quarter. Ongoing climbs in global crude oil prices and a stronger dollar are still holding back the rand's recovery. What happens next for the currency pair will depend on commodity prices, new U.S. economic data, and any signals from the Federal Reserve. It also matters if USD/ZAR can stay below its 16.45 resistance level. The South African rand strengthened in early trading, recovering from losses in the previous two sessions. The USD/ZAR pair, which briefly exceeded 16.45 earlier this week, is now trading around 16.38-16.39 after failing to maintain that upward movement.
This shift follows the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) announcement on Thursday of a 25-basis-point increase to its repo rate, bringing it to 7.25%. So what does this mean for the pair?
The Deeper Message In SARB’s Rate Decision The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously approved the 25-basis-point rate hike, sending a clear message to global markets. This decision shows that controlling inflation expectations is still the main goal, even if it affects short-term economic growth.
SARB Governor Lesetja Kganyago acknowledged that while South Africa’s GDP contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter, global supply disruptions pose a risk of pushing headline inflation above 5% by late 2026. Essentially, the SARB is tightening monetary policy during an economic slowdown. That’s a tough spot for any central bank.
The market had largely expected the 25-basis-point increase, which explains the quiet initial reaction. Instead of a big rand rally, the decision seems to have steadied market sentiment and held back further gains for the US dollar against the rand.
USD/ZAR’s inability to stay above 16.45 suggests sellers are active near recent highs, making this level a short-term resistance zone.
What Does the Near-Term Hold? For the rand to keep its current strength, USD/ZAR needs to stay under 16.45, and US dollar momentum generally has to ease up. A lasting drop in USD/ZAR would probably need clearer signs of dollar weakness or more good news from the domestic economy.
On the other hand, if it moves clearly back above 16.45, that would suggest the recent interest rate hike wasn’t enough to counter the US dollar’s recent strength.
While the SARB’s rate increase deals with domestic inflation risks, it does little to counter the dollar’s upward pressure. That pressure comes from expected US interest rate hikes and high oil prices, influenced by the conflict in Iran.
Given all this, today’s stronger opening for the rand looks more like a temporary pause in a wider period of consolidation, not the start of a lasting recovery.
For a lasting rebound, we’d probably need a clear weakening of the US dollar, a drop in oil prices, or a confirmed break and hold under the 16.00 level.
Why has the rand opened stronger today?
The rand recovered today, bouncing back after two days of losses. This followed the South African Reserve Bank’s announcement on Thursday of a 25-basis-point rate increase, bringing it to 7.25%.
What does the SARB rate hike signal to markets?
This shows the bank’s still very much focused on keeping inflation contained at its 4.4% target. Even with slow growth, the unanimous decision to tighten policy further signals that priority.
How likely is a sustained rand recovery?
It’s a moderate possibility. While a higher rate differential offers some support, the dollar’s continued strength and other outside factors still limit how much the rand can bounce back for good.
USD/JPY climbed steadily for two weeks, including a five-session winning streak that brought it close to 159. It's now trading lower, around 158, during the European session This pullback likely stems from investors taking profits and growing wary of potential Japanese intervention, particularly as the pair approached the sensitive 159-160 range. While interest rate differences still favor the dollar, upcoming data, central bank statements, and any intervention signals will likely determine if the pair regains momentum or simply continues to consolidate USD/JPY climbed steadily over the last two weeks, extending a five-day rally that pushed the pair toward the 159 mark. On Thursday, September 24, it hit highs near 159.05 before settling around 158.86.
But during European trading today, the pair reversed course. It’s trading between 158.00 and 158.20, about 0.5% below its previous close.
What Has Changed in Recent Trading The drop reflects traders taking profits and growing market caution, especially with the pair nearing the 159-160 range. Japanese officials have repeatedly voiced concerns about the yen’s weakness.
This week, comments from Finance Minister Katayama about U.S. concerns about the currency’s decline raised expectations for intervention.
The 159.00-160.00 resistance zone historically triggered intervention and rate checks by Japan’s Ministry of Finance (MoF). Traders chose to lock in profits before the weekend, keen to avoid higher prices in an area likely to see significant selling.
Meanwhile, the wider economic picture remains mixed. Both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised rates in mid-September, but the interest rate gap still favors the dollar.
U.S. yields held high, while the yen remained under pressure from Japan’s energy import costs and capital outflows. So, the recent climb stemmed more from carry-trade strategies and dollar strength than from any fundamental shift in monetary policy.
Outlook for the Coming Week A temporary pause after five straight increases doesn’t necessarily signal a trend reversal. Technical indicators still point to a constructive, not bearish, outlook. This coming week, USD/JPY appears caught between strong fundamental yield support and growing political resistance.
The yield difference between U.S. Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) still makes dollar-denominated assets appealing. However, the chance of official intervention rises sharply as the exchange rate nears the 159.00 and 160.00 marks.
Important economic data is due out soon, including the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index and purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reports. These should shed more light on inflation trends.
Stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data would support the Federal Reserve’s “higher-for-longer” interest rate stance, which could boost demand for the dollar.
Oil prices dropping could also reduce some dollar support, especially as they’re linked to inflation trends that push yields higher.
For now, 159 remains an important level. News developments, rather than just chart patterns, will likely influence whether it becomes a launchpad for further gains or a significant barrier.
Why is USD/JPY trading lower today?
Investors are taking profits after a two-week rally. There’s also caution around the 159 resistance level, as Japanese authorities might intervene.
Why are yen bears cautious around 159?
Japanese authorities have stepped in before when the yen weakened sharply. Those intervention fears are now limiting further declines.
What could push the pair higher next week?
A few things could do it: stronger U.S. economic data, more hawkish signals from the Fed, or continued risk appetite boosting dollar demand against the yen.
The EUR/CHF is tracking upwards after the SNB held rates at 0.00% but still retains the weapon of intervention to curtail CHF strength. Current Setup EUR/CHF is up 0.4% on the day after the Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0.00% and emphasized its willingness to intervene to curb excessive Franc strengthening. In other words, the SNB is ready to buy US Dollars and Euros while selling the Swiss franc to increase demand for these foreign currencies and push up Franc supply so the CHF weakens relative to them.
Today’s SNB decision was an important step in the bank’s quest to balance rising inflation against excessive CHF appreciation. So today’s decision was not a simple hold at 0.00%; it was a move toward using FX intervention as an exchange-rate control measure without shifting rates into negative territory.
This decision leaves the interest rate differential between the CHF and the EUR + USD higher than at the last policy meeting, as the Fed and ECB have both hiked 25 bps this month. For EUR/CHF specifically, the 0.00% policy rate = increased carry advantage for Euro holders. However, safe-haven demand for the Franc is a limiting factor.
The key level is 0.9350, below which CHF momentum accelerates and increases the SNB intervention risk.
SNB decision — what happened? The Swiss National Bank made no change to its policy rate, leaving it at 0.00%
The Swiss apex bank also retained the discount on sight deposits above the 0.25 percentage-point threshold, while explicitly indicating its willingness to intervene in the foreign-exchange market when necessary to maintain normal monetary conditions (i.e., to curb excessive CHF strength).
The key point is the rise in Swiss inflation from 0.6% in May to 0.8% in August, primarily due to goods inflation from higher oil prices. The SNB’s inflation expectations are 0.7%, 0.8% and 0.8% for 2026, 2027 and 2028, respectively. This assumes a forecast policy rate of 0.00%.
The message is that the SNB has ruled out rate hikes as a means of inflation control, as it expects no rise in inflation in its 3-year forecast.
What this means for EUR/CHF SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel has repeatedly reiterated the SNB’s willingness to intervene to weaken a Franc that has gained significant strength due to safe-haven demand. Today’s statement reinforces the FX-intervention narrative.
EUR/CHF downside risk will be limited if the SNB intervenes. But that doesn’t create a price floor. Instead, traders should look at the charts for direction. I took time to describe the scenario that will likely play out if the SNB towed the line it did today in this video here.
EUR/CHF Forecast Scenarios Base case: Limited upside to keep the pair at 0.9350–0.9450. The SNB’s latest move will limit short-term CHF appreciation, but any short-term upside will be capped as safe-haven demand kicks in to prevent a large-scale recovery.
Bull EUR/CHF case→ Major upside above 0.9400 leads to exposure of upside targets at 0.9440 initially, with a possibility to extend to 0.9480.
Bear EUR/CHF case→ Downside move with risk of intervention if the pair pushes below 0.9350. This brings up downside targets at 0.9300 and potentially 0.9250, with intervention risk rising with increasing CHF strength.
Technical Outlook The push from the 0.9390 support must break past the recent weekly high at 0.9476 to reclaim the 0.9514 resistance and prior highs of Jan/Feb 2025. Above this barrier, 0.9652 serves as the next upside target.
Fig 1: EUR/CHF daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot: 25 September 2026) However, a retracement that breaks the 0.9390 support unlocks access to downside targets at 0.9268 initially, followed by 0.9180 if there is a deeper retracement.
Key Points:Silver bounced from the $63 area as the dollar, Treasury yields and crude oil all backed off Friday.Crude remains the inflation risk: another oil rally could lift yields and send silver back toward $62.98.Silver held above $62.98 support after Thursday’s break, putting the 50-day moving average back in play.Silver Bounced After Yields, Dollar, and Crude All Backed Off Together Spot Silver is trading higher Friday after buyers stepped in near the same prices tested on the September 16 Fed decision. Thursday’s selling was not a silver-specific event. Rising crude pushed the inflation argument back into the market. Treasury yields moved higher. The dollar followed. Silver and gold both broke under pressure because the rate trade was getting bigger across the board.
Friday is the other side of that trade. Crude is lower. Yields are easing. The dollar is backing off. That combination brought buyers back into silver at the same area where they showed up after the September 16 rate decision. The bids are in the same place they were two weeks ago.
At 08:45 GMT, Spot Silver is trading $64.68, up $0.82 or 1.29%. The session high is $64.72 and the low is $63.36.
Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through the main top at $67.55 will change the main trend to up. A move through the recent bottom at $62.31 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. A new minor bottom has formed at $63.07.
Silver is trading above its 50-day moving average at $63.78 after breaking it on Thursday then recovering it on Friday. The average and the $62.98 support level form the first support cluster. Thursday’s low at $63.07 stopped above the lower boundary of that cluster before buyers came in.
The retracement zone at $62.98 to $61.04 will be the area to watch if the 50-day moving average fails. A sustained break through $62.98 would put the 61.8% level at $61.04 in play. Below that, the 50% level of the all-time-high range at $60.84 becomes the next major downside target.
On the upside, silver has resistance at $65.32, followed by $66.75 and the $67.55 main top. A trade through $67.55 will change the main trend to up and put $67.79 in play.
Silver Price Forecast
Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Silver forecasts Silver Found Buyers at the September 16 Level Again Spot Silver reached $63.07 Thursday before turning higher. That put the market back into the area where traders sold the Fed decision before buyers showed up on September 16. The repeat test matters. Two visits to the same price area in two weeks and buyers responded both times.
The metal did not need a new headline to bounce. It needed the dollar, yields, and crude to stop pressing. All three turned lower heading into Friday and silver followed gold off the lows. The recovery shows buyers were willing to take offers near $63. Whether they are willing to take offers above $65 is a different question and Friday has not answered it yet.
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Gold is following the same pattern. Both metals are recovering as the dollar and yields ease. Both remain below the levels lost during Thursday’s break. The rate market is still the first screen for silver and gold. Thursday proved it on the way down. Friday is proving it on the way back up.
Crude Backed Off but the Inflation Risk Has Not Left
Daily November WTI Crude Oil Futures November WTI crude oil futures are lower Friday after Thursday’s rally. The market may have removed some immediate supply premium after the Hormuz-talks headline earlier in the week. Shipping conditions have not normalized. Tanker flows have not returned to normal. The Strait is still the variable that can reverse crude on one headline.
Daily US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield Thursday showed what happens to silver when crude rallies into a rate market that is already elevated. The 10-year pushed near 5.15%. The 30-year reached 5.446%. Silver sold off alongside gold as the entire metals complex gave ground to higher yields. Friday’s lower crude is giving silver room. It is one session of relief after a week of pressure from the energy side.
Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) The dollar is easing alongside crude Friday. A softer dollar gives overseas buyers a better entry point. The broader rate outlook still favors the greenback with Treasury yields holding near levels last seen in 2004 and 2007. Friday’s move has to hold through the New York session before traders can call it more than overnight positioning.
What to Watch Silver is recovering because the three markets that pressured it Thursday are all easing at the same time Friday morning. The 50-day at $63.78 and the $62.98 support level are where buyers showed up. Thursday’s low at $63.07 held above the cluster both times the market tested this area.
The rate trade is still running the metals. The 10-year is off Thursday’s high but is holding well above 5%. The dollar backed off its recovery high but remains above the 50-day. Crude is lower Friday but the Hormuz story can reverse it on one headline out of the UNGA sessions. Silver got a bounce because all three eased together. The test is whether any of them stay lower through the New York session or turn back higher and take the recovery away.
About the Author
James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.
TL;DR: The Australian Dollar is the week’s worst-performing major currency even with a September RBA hike to 4.60% essentially fully priced—the weakness reflects position lightening ahead of uncertain vote composition and guidance, not doubt about the hike itself, with AUD/USD now testing 0.7006 support.
Aussie Underperformance Goes Beyond Risk Aversion The Australian Dollar is heading into next Tuesday’s RBA meeting as the worst-performing major currency of the week, down around -1.4% against the Dollar and underperforming even NZD. Broad Dollar strength and rising US yields explain much of the move: every major currency has weakened against USD, with lower-beta currencies generally holding up better than their more risk-sensitive peers. But AUD’s additional weakness points to something more specific. With a 25bp RBA hike to 4.60% essentially fully priced, the market has little remaining upside to capture from the headline decision itself while still facing uncertainty over the vote, statement tone, and guidance on what comes next.
That makes the current move best read as position lightening ahead of asymmetric event risk, rather than evidence traders already expect a divided or dovish board. The distinction matters. Investors can remain convinced the RBA will hike on Tuesday and still reduce long-AUD exposure because the information attached to that hike is far less certain. A clean, unanimous decision with firm guidance may merely validate what’s already priced. A split vote or softer language on further tightening, however, could force a much larger repricing.
Currency heat map.
The Hike Is Priced. The Event Risk Isn’t. That uncertainty is visible further along the rates curve. While the September hike is priced at essentially 100%, the implied probability of another move drops sharply to around 40.8% for November and 26.4% for December, before recovering only partially by February. The market is therefore not pricing a smooth continuation of tightening. It’s pricing one highly probable hike followed by a much more uncertain path.
The sell-side divide reinforces that distinction. Commonwealth Bank expects a unanimous decision with hawkish statement language, while Westpac expects a split vote, despite both arriving at the same 4.60% cash-rate forecast. August’s hold was unanimous on the rate itself, but the minutes already showed differing assessments beneath that decision, with some members emphasizing the possibility upside inflation risks could crystallize while others placed greater weight on offsetting downside risks.
RBA Monetary Policy Board member Iain Ross added another layer this week, saying there was “no evidence of the emergence of a wage-price spiral” and that recent data suggested such an outcome was unlikely. That weakens the case for treating wages themselves as an accelerating inflation engine, but it doesn’t remove the broader tightening argument. Above-target underlying inflation, excess-demand concerns, and the possibility that imported energy shocks generate second-round effects remain central to the hawkish case.
Domestic Data Give Both Sides Something to Use The latest labor data illustrate why the Board’s internal debate could remain difficult even if the rate decision itself is straightforward. August employment rebounded by 39.5k, but all of the net increase came from part-time work, while full-time employment fell by around -6k and unemployment rose from 4.5% to 4.6%. The message isn’t that labor demand has collapsed, but that spare capacity is continuing to build at the margin even as employment still grows.
Wages point in a similar direction. The Q2 Wage Price Index held at 3.2% y/y, down from 3.4% a year earlier, with private-sector wages at 3.1% and public-sector wages at 3.4%. Against headline CPI of 3.5% and trimmed-mean inflation of 3.6%, households aren’t receiving a meaningful real-income cushion from wages. That’s consistent with Ross’s rejection of a wage-price spiral and complicates the argument for repeated tightening based on domestic wage pressure alone.
Financial markets are also increasingly discounting a weaker household backdrop. Australian consumer discretionary shares have fallen sharply over the past year, while housing prices have retreated from their April peak. Those moves aren’t direct measures of consumption, but they do show investors becoming more cautious about the earnings and growth consequences of higher rates. HSBC’s Paul Bloxham has gone further, putting the probability of a technical recession near 50% if both September and November hikes materialize, well above the roughly 20% consensus. That remains a minority view, but it illustrates how much more contentious the second hike is than the first.
The RBA Must Decide Before the Next CPI Print Another complication is timing. The RBA will make Tuesday’s decision one day before the August CPI release, meaning policymakers won’t have the freshest inflation reading when they vote.
That helps explain why the market can be nearly certain about September while remaining much less confident about November. The Board already has enough inflation evidence to justify another increase if it chooses, but guidance beyond Tuesday may need to remain conditional because the next inflation print could either reinforce or soften the case for follow-through.
The asymmetry for AUD is therefore clear. The expected 25bp hike itself offers limited new information. The market will instead focus on whether the vote is unanimous, whether the statement retains language signaling willingness to tighten further, and whether the Board presents September as another step in a sequence or as a more cautious insurance move.
ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/USD: Testing the 0.7000 Decision Zone That positioning risk is already visible in AUD/USD, which has extended its decline from 0.7237 and broken decisively below the daily 55 EMA as well as former 0.7074 support. The pair is now pressing the 0.7006 level, the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 0.6864 to 0.7237.
The decline is currently viewed as the third leg of the corrective pattern from the 0.7277 high. A sustained break below 0.7006 would expose 0.6864, with the larger 0.6756 area—38.2% retracement of the rise from 0.5913 to 0.7277—becoming the next major medium-term support. Unless AUD/USD is undergoing a broader bearish trend reversal, stronger buying interest should emerge around that 0.6756 zone.
On the upside, 0.7074 has become the first meaningful resistance. Reclaiming it would suggest near-term stabilization, although a more convincing recovery would still require the pair to rebuild above its falling short-term moving averages.
Tuesday Is About the Information Around the Hike The key point is that AUD weakness doesn’t necessarily mean markets expect the RBA to disappoint. It’s more consistent with investors reducing long exposure because the headline hike is already known while the accompanying information remains uncertain.
A unanimous 25bp increase with clearly hawkish guidance would remove some of that uncertainty and could stabilize AUD. A split vote or softer language around further tightening would be the more obvious downside surprise and could accelerate a break below 0.7006.
Perhaps the most revealing outcome would be a clean, hawkish hike that still fails to lift the currency. That would suggest the broader Dollar backdrop, domestic growth concerns, and positioning are overpowering the rate differential. For now, the market isn’t really debating whether the RBA hikes on Tuesday. It’s deciding how much AUD exposure it wants to carry into an announcement whose tone may matter far more than the rate move itself.
Key Takeaways AUD is the week’s worst-performing major currency (-1.4%) despite a September RBA hike being essentially 100% priced, reflecting position lightening ahead of uncertain vote and guidance. Sell-side banks disagree on vote composition even while agreeing on the 4.60% outcome: CBA expects a unanimous hawkish decision, Westpac expects a split vote. November hike odds sit at just 40.8%, well below September’s near-certainty, showing markets are pricing one confident move followed by real uncertainty. Weak full-time employment (-6k) and wages holding at 3.2% y/y, below both headline and trimmed-mean CPI, complicate the case for aggressive follow-through tightening. AUD/USD is testing 0.7006 support; a break opens 0.6864 and then the major 0.6756 medium-term support, while reclaiming 0.7074 would suggest near-term stabilization.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Pound-Dollar could remain under pressure if Fed hike bets stay elevated, although weaker US durable goods orders may offer Sterling some respite. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate fell to a three-month low on Thursday as Federal Reserve interest rate hike bets boosted USD.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3226, having bounced off its lowest point of $1.3215 but still down on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.321538 (-0.17%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.136745 (-0.12%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.93551 (+0.42%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) remained strong on Thursday as markets continued to price in more muscular action from the Federal Reserve to tame inflation.
Hawkish Fed bets were boosted by Wednesday's forecast-smashing PMI releases, which fuelled beliefs that the American economy may be running hot.
On Thursday, an unexpected decline in initial jobless claims added to Fed hike bets.
Markets now see a greater than 50% chance that the Federal Reserve will deliver 50 basis points of tightening by the end of the year.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) struggled as Fed rate hike bets triggered turmoil in global bond markets.
This raised concerns about the UK’s tough fiscal position ahead of the Autumn Budget, amid reports that the Treasury will look to reduce its fiscal headroom to avoid raising taxes.
Additionally, weaker-than-expected figures from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) weighed slightly on the Pound, although the impact was limited.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Durable Goods Orders to Dent the Dollar? Looking forward, Friday brings the latest US durable goods orders figures. An expected contraction in August could dent USD.
However, the ‘Greenback’ could remain supported if hawkish Federal Reserve interest rate bets continue to boost USD demand.
In addition, market risk appetite could influence the GBP/USD pairing, with the safe-haven US Dollar potentially drawing support from a risk-off mood. Geopolitical tensions and worries about higher global borrowing costs could dampen risk appetite and support the American Dollar.
Meanwhile, a lack of UK economic data means Sterling may also be primarily influenced by wider market trends, including risk sentiment, bond market movements, and domestic headlines.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Pound-Australian Dollar could remain sensitive to risk appetite, with a souring market mood likely to weigh on the Aussie. The Pound Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate fluctuated on Thursday as markets reacted to Australia’s latest jobs report.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.8813, virtually unchanged on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.321344 (-0.19%)
Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.700945 (-0.34%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) initially fell during Thursday’s Asian trading session as investors digested Australia’s latest jobs report.
New data showed that Australian unemployment rose in August, unexpectedly climbing from 4.5% to 4.6%. Meanwhile, full-time employment fell by 6,300.
However, the rise in unemployment was largely due to more people entering the workforce, with the participation rate jumping from 66.9% to 67.1%. Additionally, part-time employment beat forecasts, increasing by 39,500.
These positive elements of the release helped the Australian Dollar limit its losses and regain some ground as trade went on.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) struggled to hold its overnight gains against the ‘Aussie’ amid fresh bond market turmoil and some softer UK data.
Gilt yields spiked on Thursday, nearing the 19-year highs touched earlier in the month, amid rising oil prices and growing bets on further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. This in turn raised concerns about the UK’s fiscal position ahead of the Autumn Budget.
Additionally, weaker-than-forecast data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) also put some pressure on GBP, although its impact was limited.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Risk Appetite in Focus Looking ahead, Friday brings a lack of UK and Australian economic data, potentially leaving the GBP/AUD exchange rate to trade on market risk appetite.
Any shifts in risk sentiment could drive volatility, while a prevailing risk-off mood could weigh on the ‘Aussie’.
Markets will be keeping an eye on events in the Middle East, amid tentative hopes for a US-Iran peace deal. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations are also likely to impact market sentiment, with fears of higher borrowing costs potentially dampening risk appetite.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
AUDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the key resistance zone located between the resistance zone 0.7235 (which previously stopped the major upward wave (1) in May) and the upper resistance line of the daily up channel from June.
The subsequent downward movement resulted in a clear breakout below both the lower support trendline of the daily up channel and the horizontal support level 0.7050. This breakout accelerated the active minor impulse wave i belonging to intermediate corrective wave C of wave (2).
AUDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall further toward the next key support level 0.6940 former low of wave 2 from June.
FxProhttp://www.fxpro.co.uk/?ib=606792
FxPro is an award-winning online broker offering Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on forex, futures, spot indices, shares, spot metals and spot energies. FxPro serves clients in over 150 countries worldwide and offers multilingual customer support 24/5. Trading CFDs involves significant risk of loss.
USDJPY currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone located between the key support level 152.88 (which previously stopped wave (ii) in February) and the lower support trendline of the daily down channel from July.
The upward reversal from this support zone accelerated the active sub-wave iii of intermediate impulse wave (iii), breaking the resistance trendline of the down channel from July.
USDJPY currency pair can be expected to rise further toward the next key resistance level 160.30 – former top of wave b from the start of this month.
FxProhttp://www.fxpro.co.uk/?ib=606792
FxPro is an award-winning online broker offering Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on forex, futures, spot indices, shares, spot metals and spot energies. FxPro serves clients in over 150 countries worldwide and offers multilingual customer support 24/5. Trading CFDs involves significant risk of loss.
TL;DR: Gold has held its 4,230.70 support through a sharp Treasury yield surge to multi-decade highs, but the real test isn’t whether it can absorb a short-lived spike—it’s whether that support survives a sustained regime with the 10-year yield staying above 5%.
Gold Has Survived the Yield Shock Gold has already survived something that should have hurt much more. Treasury yields have climbed to multi-decade highs, Fed tightening expectations have accelerated, and the Dollar remains firm—yet gold is still holding above 4,230, a key near-term Fibonacci support. The harder test may only be beginning: not whether yields spike, but whether they stay this high.
At around 4,275, gold remains well above the 3,942.43 June low, despite the increasingly hostile rates backdrop. More importantly, this week’s sharp Treasury selloff failed to force a break of 4,230.70, the 61.8% retracement of the rise from 3,942.43 to the 4,697.07 peak. Gold has therefore absorbed both the gradual rise in yields over recent months and the latest abrupt repricing without losing the support that defines its broader corrective structure.
That’s genuine resilience. But it’s not the same thing as renewed strength.
Resilient, but Increasingly Vulnerable The fundamental pressure on gold hasn’t stabilized. Markets are pricing a substantially greater probability of further Fed tightening, the US 10-year yield has pushed above 5%, and the Dollar remains broadly firm. Those forces continue to raise the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.
The charts reflect that pressure. Gold is trading below both the 4H 55 EMA at 4,326.16 and the daily 55 EMA at 4,337.45, leaving immediate price action capped beneath moving averages on two timeframes simultaneously.
Momentum is also soft rather than exhausted. The 4H RSI at 40.88 and daily RSI at 43.87 are both below 50 but still have substantial room to fall before reaching oversold territory. MACD remains negative on both timeframes, with the deterioration on the daily chart particularly pronounced. In other words, gold’s price structure has held up better than its momentum structure.
That combination preserves the resilient-but-vulnerable framing: bears haven’t broken the level that matters, but bulls haven’t regained control either.
The Harder Test Is Yields Staying High The market question has now changed.
Earlier, the issue was whether gold could withstand rising Treasury yields. It largely has. Even this week’s rapid push in the 10-year and 30-year to multi-decade highs wasn’t enough to break the key support zone.
But a short-lived yield shock and a sustained high-yield regime are different things.
If the 10-year remains above or around 5% while Fed expectations continue shifting toward additional tightening, gold faces a more persistent headwind. A temporary spike can be absorbed. Weeks of elevated yields, a firm Dollar, and expectations of further rate increases would continuously pressure the relative attraction of holding gold.
That’s the test the market hasn’t completed yet.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold: 4,230 Is the Line That Matters Technically, the decline from 4,697.07 remains corrective rather than conclusively bearish. Price action has been overlapping and choppy rather than developing into a clean directional collapse, while repeated attempts to push below the low-4,200s have failed.
The key floor remains 4,230.70, with the recent low at 4,234.68 effectively retesting that area.
The importance of this level is asymmetric. A rebound above nearby resistance would show improving momentum, but a decisive break below 4,230.70 would undermine the central resilience argument itself. It would mean the support that survived both the gradual yield climb and the latest rates shock had finally failed. Such a break would reopen the broader 3,942.43 low as the next major downside reference.
Bulls Have Several Hurdles to Clear On the upside, gold first needs to reclaim the 4,326–4,337 area defined by the 4H and daily 55 EMAs. That would ease immediate downside pressure but wouldn’t by itself signal the correction from 4,697.07 is finished.
A more meaningful recovery requires a break above the 4,410 area, followed by the broader 4,410–4,520 resistance zone. A sustained move through that cluster would materially strengthen the case that the corrective phase is ending and put 4,697.07 back into focus.
Until then, rebounds remain vulnerable to selling into resistance. That creates a relatively clean structure:
Above 4,410–4,520, the correction begins to lose control, reopening 4,697.07. Below 4,230.70, the resilience thesis weakens sharply, reopening 3,942.43.
Gold Has Held—Now It Must Prove It Can Keep Holding Gold’s relative stability through the Treasury breakout is noteworthy. The metal hasn’t ignored higher yields—the decline from 4,697.07 makes that clear—but neither has it capitulated despite an increasingly difficult macro backdrop.
That makes gold resilient, but still vulnerable.
The next meaningful signal won’t come from another intraday move around 4,275. It will come from whether 4,230.70 survives a sustained period of Treasury yields above 5%, and whether gold can reclaim both 55 EMAs before rates find another leg higher.
Upcoming US payrolls and CPI could determine whether the rates pressure intensifies or finally eases. If neither changes the Fed narrative, gold may have to prove its support can withstand something harder than a yield shock: a high-yield regime that refuses to go away.
Key Takeaways Gold held 4,230.70 support through a sharp Treasury selloff that pushed the 10-year yield above 5% for the first time in multi-decade highs. Gold’s price structure has held up better than its momentum structure: it’s below both 55 EMAs (4,326.16 4H, 4,337.45 daily) with RSI soft on both timeframes. The real test has shifted from whether gold can absorb a yield spike to whether it can withstand a sustained regime of yields staying above 5%. A break below 4,230.70 would undermine the resilience thesis and reopen the 3,942.43 June low; a break above the 4,410-4,520 zone would instead reopen 4,697.07. Upcoming US payrolls and CPI are the next catalysts that could determine whether rate pressure on gold intensifies or eases.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
