Chris Turner at ING observes that EUR/USD realised volatility continues to decline, with one-year volatility matching lows from November 2024. He argues this calm backdrop is unlikely to change before mid-September, and warns that underhedged European investors in US assets may need to raise Dollar hedge ratios if the Dollar weakens. EUR/USD is expected to stay within 1.1515-1.1560 today.
Calm trading and hedge ratio risks"EUR/USD realised volatility continues to sink and one-year is now at 5.8% – matching the low from November 2024. As above, it is hard to see that environment changing anytime soon – or at least until mid-September when central bankers around the world return from their summer breaks."
"We published an article yesterday looking at the dollar hedge ratios of European investors. The risk here is that European investors in the US are once again underhedged and have to quickly raise their dollar hedge ratios should the dollar look vulnerable again."
"It is hard to see EUR/USD trading much outside a 1.1515-1.1560 range today."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The dollar is flat near 99.84, which leaves gold without a currency tailwind or a major headwind. Everything is waiting on the same number.
A soft CPI print weakens the dollar, pulls yields lower and puts pressure back on September hike odds. That is the combination that gives gold another run at the morning high. A hot print with oil near $90 and yields already above 4.70% gives sellers a reason to press. Producer prices follow Thursday and retail sales land Friday. The market gets three chances this week to reassess whether inflation is cooling or whether higher energy is working its way through.
Structural demand and returning Western buyers are holding gold above the correction lows. Those are supports underneath the market, not catalysts above it. The catalyst is CPI.
What to Watch Gold hit $4,435.25 Tuesday because the rate outlook had softened and Hormuz risk was still in the market. It pulled back because yields and hike odds climbed with oil. CPI Wednesday is the deciding print. A soft number reopens the trade that carried gold to the morning high. A hot number with crude near $90 gives the bond market permission to keep pushing yields higher, and gold has shown this week it cannot hold rallies against that pressure.
The failed push above the retracement level Tuesday left gold between the morning high and Monday’s close. A hold above that close keeps the uptrend intact. A close below it forms a reversal pattern that points toward a deeper correction off the recent rally.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held the cash rate at 4.35%, with all nine board members voting to leave policy unchanged. The decision itself was expected. The more useful signal came from why the Bank chose to pause.
Inflation is still too high, but consumer spending, housing and the labour market are beginning to cool. After three rate hikes this year, the RBA now wants to see how much of that tightening is still working through the economy before deciding whether another increase is needed.
That leaves the RBA in an awkward middle ground: not enough evidence to hike again immediately, but not enough disinflation to declare the tightening cycle finished. For AUD, the next move is therefore a confirmation story rather than a simple hawkish-rate story.
The RBA is pausing to assess, not declaring victoryThe latest statement suggests the RBA believes tighter policy is starting to have a real effect. Trimmed mean inflation remains elevated, but softer consumer spending, cooler housing conditions in some capital cities and a softer labour market all point to demand losing some momentum.
That is why the hold should not be read as a dovish pivot. The Bank can keep policy restrictive while waiting for the lagged effect of earlier hikes. If inflation remains sticky, or global energy risks keep price pressures elevated, the option of another hike remains open.
For AUD, this is supportive at the margin, but it is not a one-way bullish signal. The currency still has to prove that the RBA backdrop is strong enough to overcome resistance and whatever the US dollar does next.
AUD/USD now has to clear 0.704-0.708AUDUSD is now testing the 0.704-0.708 resistance area on the daily chart. Price has pushed into a previous high range, but the latest candles are beginning to stall and momentum has failed to confirm the higher high.
From here, the US side of AUDUSD becomes the next immediate driver, with US CPI due tomorrow on 12 August.
A hotter US inflation print would make it harder for AUDUSD to break higher. The first pullback references sit near the channel midline around 0.700 and the lower channel area near 0.695. A clean channel failure would expose the larger 0.683-0.687 support zone.
A cooler US CPI print would give the pair more room to break above 0.708. If price can close above that area and hold it on a retest, the next references are around 0.718 and then 0.723-0.727.
Fundamentally, the RBA is in a much more comfortable position than earlier in the year.
Softer housing activity, lending, consumer spending and labour conditions suggest its previous hikes are beginning to cool demand, which should gradually ease inflation pressure. Technically, AUDUSD may also be forming bearish divergence at resistance.
RBNZ shows a hawkish policy is not enoughThe RBNZ offers a useful warning against treating a hawkish central bank as an automatic bullish currency signal. It raised the Official Cash Rate to 2.50% on 8 July and said further increases are likely, although the timing remains uncertain.
Even so, NZD/USD remains below its long-running weekly downtrend and beneath the 0.603-0.612 resistance area. The pair has not converted renewed RBNZ tightening into a structural breakout of its trendline resistance.
That makes NZD/USD a control case for the RBA story. Domestic policy can support a currency, but relative growth, commodity exposure, the US dollar and existing price structure still decide how much of that support reaches the exchange rate.
AUD/NZD may be reaching a turning pointRemoving the US dollar from the equation, the RBA may finally be starting to see its aggressive tightening cycle pay off.
Housing activity and new lending have cooled, consumer spending has slowed, and labour conditions have softened, giving the Bank more reason to pause and assess the impact of the three hikes delivered between February and May.
The RBNZ, on the other hand, is at a much earlier stage. It only restarted tightening in July, raising the OCR to 2.50%, with further hikes still likely. That timing gap matters because Australia may now be moving into the later stages of its tightening cycle just as New Zealand begins applying more pressure.
If that gap starts to narrow, so could Australia’s relative rate advantage. That raises the risk that AUDNZD is approaching a turning point rather than simply extending higher.
The idea that AUD may weaken against the NZD is supported technically as well.
The pair has tapped a major trendline resistance extending from 2019 with almost perfect precision. The current pullback could still form a bull-flag consolidation, but failure to recover would leave room for a deeper retracement towards roughly 1.162-1.169, where the trading volume weighted average price anchored from the start of the rally sits.
The GBP/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.3500 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Cable edges down as the US Dollar (USD) ticks up; however, financial markets doubt the slight recovery move seen this week, with traders paring hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for the September policy meeting due to weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.
Economists at ING describe the July US jobs report as "surprisingly weak," noting that nonfarm payrolls "fell 23k" on the month. They highlight that the softness was compounded by "103K of downward revisions to the past two months' data," which has dragged the "3M average" gain in payrolls down to just "20,000." ING argues that this combination of an outright monthly decline and sizeable revisions paints a notably softer picture of underlying labour market momentum. Read more...
British Pound consolidates around 1.3500 vs USD; looks to US CPI, UK GDP for fresh impetusThe GBP/USD pair seesaws between tepid gains and minor losses through the early European session on Tuesday, though it remains close to the highest level since July 16 set the previous day. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.3500 psychological mark, nearly unchanged for the day, as traders opt to wait for this week's important macro releases from the US and the UK.
The crucial US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on Wednesday, followed by the preliminary UK Q2 GDP figures on Thursday and the US Producer Price Index (PPI). In the meantime, the US-Iran standoff, along with bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will adopt a more hawkish stance amid inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices, supports the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and caps GBP/USD. Read more...
British Pound clings to gains against US Dollar, US CPI in focusThe British Pound (GBP) holds onto two-day gains marginally at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair remains firm as the British Pound outperforms despite financial markets pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in the near term.
Strategists at Rabobank point out that “for the UK, the market is currently pricing in a reduced expectation of a rate hike by the end of the year. Read more...
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its correction on Tuesday and trades around $65.05 at the time of writing, down 2.31% on the day. The white metal retreats from the seven-week high reached at $66.59 on Monday as rising Oil prices and prospects of tighter monetary policy in the United States (US) weigh on precious metals.
Oil prices have risen sharply since the beginning of the week as negotiations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz remain uncertain. Iran is conditioning the reopening of this strategic maritime route on several demands from Washington, including the payment of war reparations and the lifting of sanctions.
Some signs of easing tensions are nevertheless emerging. Qatar says on Tuesday that negotiations between Oman and Iran have reached an advanced stage and that it has received positive feedback from both sides. Doha stresses, however, that the talks are at a critical juncture, maintaining uncertainty over the prospect of a swift agreement.
This situation supports energy prices and revives concerns about US inflation. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $81.20, up more than 5% since the beginning of the week, despite the daily decline. Higher Oil prices are also helping to keep US Treasury yields elevated, reducing the appeal of Silver, a non-yielding asset.
Against this backdrop, investors are increasing their expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed). According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now estimate a 52% chance of a 25-basis-point interest rate hike at the September meeting, up from approximately 44% the day before.
Comments from Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack are also fueling these expectations. Hammack said on Monday that current monetary policy “is not hurting the economy” and argued that the Fed will need to raise interest rates more than once to bring inflation back toward its target.
These prospects provide some support to the US Dollar (USD) and represent an additional headwind for Silver. A stronger US Dollar tends to make the white metal more expensive for investors using other currencies, while higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Investors now turn their attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due on Wednesday. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of a September rate hike and maintain pressure on Silver. Conversely, easing price pressures could reduce expectations of monetary tightening and provide support to the precious metal.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
China’s official gold buying accelerated further in June, and the Chinese central bank is beginning to bring some of that gold home.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) officially purchased 640,000 troy ounces of gold in July. The nearly 20-tonne increase in reserves was the largest since 2023.
This came on the heels of a 480,000-ounce increase to China's official gold holdings in June.
The People’s Bank of China has officially added gold to its reserves for 21 straight months.
Year-to-date, the Chinese Central Bank has officially increased its gold holdings by nearly 60 tonnes. China now officially holds 2,366 tonnes of the yellow metal valued at $306.35 billion.
Notice I’m emphasizing the word "official."
China is among the central banks that are likely to hold significantly more gold than they publicly disclose. As Jan Nieuwenhuijs has reported, the People's Bank of China is secretly buying large amounts of gold off the books. According to data parsed by the Money Metals researcher, the Chinese central bank is currently sitting on more than 5,000 tonnes of monetary gold located in Beijing – more than TWICE what has been publicly admitted.
The mainstream is finally taking notice. Last month, Goldman Sachs picked up on China’s undisclosed purchases, and analysts at BMO Capital estimated that Chinese gold reserves could surpass the U.S.’s within five years.
Bringing its Gold homeChina has also started moving some of its gold reserves from London to Hong Kong, joining other central banks in a gold repatriation movement.
Bloomberg reported that officials who asked to remain anonymous said the People’s Bank of China “has built up inventories in Hong Kong over the past few months,” and that this recent move “is accelerating a longer-term trend whereby the PBOC has been moving some of its gold reserves back home from London.”
The unnamed officials said the PBOC plans to continue relocating metal from London.
Chinese gold repatriation appears to be part of a broader strategy as China (and Asia more broadly) positions itself to become a bigger player in the global gold market.
Earlier this month, Hong Kong launched trial operations of its gold clearing and settlement system, putting the region in a position to challenge Western dominance of the global gold market. Meanwhile, Hong Kong officials plan to expand the region’s gold storage capacity from 200 to more than 2,000 tonnes over the next three years.
Bloomberg reported that the movement of gold from London to Hong Kong’s expanding vaulting facilities signals support for the new clearing system. When the system launched last month, PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng said the central bank plans to continue allocating national foreign reserves to Hong Kong.
Hong Kong has also invited other countries to participate in the clearing system and to vault gold in the administrative region. Cambodia has already taken up Hong Kong’s invitation to store gold there.
As already noted, many countries are diversifying their gold storage or bringing their metal home.
As a Financial Times article summarized the trend, “Global central banks are removing gold from vaults in London and New York as they become more skittish about storing bullion outside their own borders, according to a new survey.”
India is one of the countries aggressively repatriating its gold. In the spring of 2024, the Reserve Bank of India brought 100 tonnes of gold home, repatriating it from vaults in the UK. Over the last six months, the Indian central bank has repatriated another 104 tonnes.
According to the Economic Times of India, U.S. weaponization of the dollar is one of the key factors driving gold repatriation, specifically aggressive sanctions levied on Russia after it invaded Ukraine and the freezing of Afghanistan’s reserves by Western powers.
Those episodes, involving G7 countries restricting access to sovereign assets, have reshaped how central banks think about custody.
Emerging market central banks and countries with strained relations with the U.S. aren’t the only ones bringing their gold home. France completed its gold repatriation project earlier this year.
Metals Focus senior analyst Junlu Liang said gold repatriation shows how central banks are reassessing the role of gold in reserve management.
In some countries, domestic political considerations have further strengthened calls to relocate gold holdings closer to home.
Several other countries have repatriated gold in recent years, including the Netherlands, Australia, Poland, Hungary, and Romania. Meanwhile, there is a growing chorus of voices across the political spectrum calling on German officials to bring the country’s gold home.
This gold repatriation trend underscores the importance of holding physical gold free from counterparty risk.
The GBP/USD pair trades marginally lower at around 1.3500 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Cable edges down as the US Dollar (USD) ticks up; however, financial markets doubt the slight recovery move seen this week, with traders paring hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for the September policy meeting due to weak United States (US) Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.
US payrolls stumble as July jobs data disappointsEconomists at ING describe the July US jobs report as "surprisingly weak," noting that nonfarm payrolls "fell 23k" on the month. They highlight that the softness was compounded by "103K of downward revisions to the past two months' data," which has dragged the "3M average" gain in payrolls down to just "20,000." ING argues that this combination of an outright monthly decline and sizeable revisions paints a notably softer picture of underlying labour market momentum.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding interest rates steady in the September meeting have increased to 50% from 30.4% seen a month ago.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July and the United Kingdom (UK) Q2 and June Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades around 1.3501, holding a bullish near‑term bias as spot remains above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3429 and the downward-sloping border of the Descending Triangle pattern offering support near 1.3455.
The pair is thus supported by both dynamic and structural levels, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at about 60 points to firm but not overextended bullish momentum, suggesting buyers still control the near-term direction.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the former resistance trend line turned floor around 1.3455, followed by the 20-period EMA at 1.3429, where dip buyers may re-emerge if corrective pressure unfolds. Looking up, the pair could advance towards 1.3600 if it manages to extend the advance sustainably above the July 15 high at 1.3558.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Overnight, the RBA held its cash rate steady at 4.35%, as widely expected after June’s inflation data came in softer than forecast at 3.8% headline. Yet the accompanying statement struck a notably cautious tone, warning that trimmed mean inflation remains elevated and largely unchanged from the March quarter, with oil and related commodities still trading above pre-conflict levels due to the ongoing Middle East crisis. With 55% of economists still expecting at least one further hike in 2026, the door to additional tightening remains firmly open.
The euro, meanwhile, holds a cautiously bullish tone after climbing to a seven-week high near $1.155 against the dollar. Eurozone Q2 growth of 0.4% offered support, though weaker retail activity and mixed inflation signals keep the ECB’s own path uncertain, with policymakers maintaining a deliberately cautious stance ahead of their September 15-16 meeting and giving no firm commitment to further hikes.
The result: two central banks in genuine holding patterns, each leaving the door open to more tightening while waiting for clearer data to justify the next move.
Technical Analysis of EUR/AUD
As EUR/AUD chart shows, the pair staged a strong rally from July’s lows near 1.6243, a move that followed a bullish RSI divergence, where price carved a lower low while the RSI printed a higher low. Since topping near 1.6500 in late July, price has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle, with a descending trendline and an ascending trendline converging right around the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci zone near 1.6342-1.6372.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and break above the descending one, the path would open toward the 0.382 retracement near 1.6402, with a stronger move potentially targeting a retest of the 1.6500 highs if momentum builds.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 0.618 retracement near 1.6341 would expose the 0.786 level near 1.6298, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 1.6243 low that anchored the entire July rally.
With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, and the RSI sitting in neutral territory after cooling from its earlier divergence, EUR/AUD looks poised for a decisive break—will the euro extend its late-July strength, or does the Aussie reclaim the upper hand?
Trade over 50 forex markets 24 hours a day with FXOpen. Take advantage of low commissions, deep liquidity, and spreads from 0.0 pips (additional fees may apply). Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading forex with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOpenhttps://www.fxopen.com/
FXOpen is a global Forex and CFD Broker, founded in 2005 by a group of traders. With over 16 years of experience, the company has gained an excellent reputation a major brokerage that continues to expand rapidly. The broker offers a choice of platforms, including the popular MT4 and MT5 platforms, with a wide range of trading instruments with spreads from 0.0 pips: 600+ FX, index, share, commodity and cryptocurrency CFDs. FXOpen also provides its own PAMM technology, allowing clients to benefit from the strategies of experienced traders with a proven track record of successful trading and guarantees automatic distribution of profit and loss between the strategy provider and the strategy followers. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money. PAMM is only available in certain jurisdictions. Cryptocurrency CFDs are not available to Retail clients at FXOpen UK.
Gold (XAU/USD) pauses its rally on Tuesday after hitting a two-month high of $4,435 earlier in Asian trading hours. The modest pullback comes as uncertainty over when the Strait of Hormuz will reopen keeps Oil prices elevated. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,390, little changed on the day.
Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will not reopen unless Washington pays war reparations and meets several other demands. These include lifting sanctions, releasing frozen Iranian assets, ending military threats and removing the US naval blockade.
US President Donald Trump pushed back with his own demand for compensation from Iran in a post on his Truth Social platform on Monday, saying the US would also seek compensation from Iran for those it had killed and gravely wounded.
In the latest development, Qatar says negotiations between Iran and Oman have reached an advanced stage, adding that it has received positive feedback from both countries. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades around $81.30, up over 6% so far this week.
Markets had only briefly scaled back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets following the weaker-than-expected July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
However, rising Oil prices are bringing inflation concerns back into focus and tilting market expectations toward a possible rate hike, with the CME FedWatch tool showing a 51.9% chance of an increase at the September meeting.
Geopolitical tensions, along with hawkish Fed expectations, are keeping the US Dollar (USD) supported near its recent lows, while US Treasury yields also remain elevated. This, in turn, creates a difficult backdrop for Gold to stage a stronger recovery.
Traders may wait for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday for fresh direction. In the meantime, US-Iran headlines are likely to drive short-term price action.
According to TD Securities, a "modest, but not overly concerning, rebound in July CPI this week will not be enough to push the Fed towards hikes," with "a good portion of the strength in the report" likely coming from "the reversal of one-off weakness in June." The bank’s forecast of "0.20% for core CPI" is expected to "keep the Fed looking to August inflation data ahead of the September meeting," while TD also highlights that "PPI on Thursday will also be a key input into PCE estimates."
Technical analysis: Bulls struggle near 100-day SMA
On the daily chart, Gold retains a bullish near-term bias as XAU/USD holds comfortably above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,148 and key Fibonacci retracement supports, while pressing into overhead supply defined by the 100-day SMA at $4,389.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 66 leans toward overbought territory, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) just below 30 hints at a still-directional but moderating trend, suggesting upside momentum remains constructive but increasingly vulnerable to consolidation near the current highs.
On the topside, immediate resistance is at the 100-day SMA at $4,389, followed by the cycle high and the 100% Fibonacci retracement at $4,435, where a clear break would open the way for a fresh extension of the bullish leg.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 78.6% retracement at $4,351, with deeper pullbacks likely to find buying interest at the 61.8% level at $4,285 and the 50% retracement at $4,238, while the 50-day SMA at $4,148 marks a more meaningful structural floor that would need to give way to ease current bullish sentiment.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
TL;DR: A hawkish BoE tailwind has lifted Sterling this week, but Thursday’s June monthly GDP — not the flattering Q2 headline — will determine whether that hawkish drift can survive into September, with EUR/GBP downside and GBP/CHF upside both hanging on the answer.
Sterling Has a Hawkish BoE Tailwind — But Thursday Will Test It Sterling has been mildly firmer against the Euro and Swiss Franc this week, helped in part by an increasingly hawkish tone inside the BoE. At the July 30 meeting, the MPC voted 6–3 to hold Bank Rate at 3.75%, with Megan Greene, Catherine Mann, and Huw Pill backing a hike to 4.00%. Governor Andrew Bailey remained cautious and played down expectations of an imminent move, but the direction of the voting pattern is hard to ignore.
Hawkish dissent has widened at every meeting this year:
April: 8–1. June: 7–2. July: 6–3. That’s a more meaningful signal than a static minority repeatedly casting the same votes. It suggests the Committee is gradually moving closer to another hike, even if the majority isn’t there yet. Put differently, the BoE is still holding, but hawkish pressure is building underneath that hold.
Oil Is Making the Policy Question More Urgent The recent rise in oil adds urgency to that debate. The ECB has already tightened in response to energy-driven inflation pressure, while the BoE has so far stayed put. If crude remains elevated, higher energy costs will keep feeding into the UK inflation outlook and increase pressure on the MPC to prevent second-round effects from taking hold.
Still, the BoE cannot respond to oil in isolation. The key question is whether the domestic economy is strong enough to tolerate another increase. That’s why Thursday’s GDP data matter. Strong activity would give existing hawks more room to argue inflation risk deserves priority; a sharper slowdown would strengthen Bailey’s and others’ case for patience.
For Sterling, this relative policy backdrop matters most against currencies where central-bank divergence is clearer. EUR/GBP reflects whether the BoE can begin closing the gap with the ECB, while GBP/CHF has an even cleaner setup given expectations that SNB rates stay pinned near bottom for the foreseeable future.
Why Q2 GDP May Flatter the Underlying Picture Headline Q2 GDP is expected to show 0.4% q/q growth, down from 0.6% in Q1 but still respectable given disruption from the Iran war. Yet that number may overstate underlying resilience.
Earlier in the quarter, manufacturers and clients front-loaded purchases to protect against expected price increases and supply disruption. S&P Global’s May PMI commentary explicitly linked stronger output to that stockpiling behavior, while June data showed those effects fading. That means part of Q2 growth may simply have been activity pulled forward — so a 0.4% quarterly print can look healthy while masking a much weaker economy at quarter-end.
Why June Is the Number That Really Matters That’s why June monthly GDP may carry more information than the Q2 headline itself. June output is expected to fall -0.1% m/m, reversing May’s 0.1% increase. By that point, much of the earlier front-loading had faded, making the monthly figure a cleaner read on how the economy was actually entering Q3.
If Q2 comes in around 0.4% but June contracts more sharply than expected, markets may conclude that resilience was temporary and dependent on stockpiling — giving BoE doves a stronger argument to resist tightening. If June instead holds up better than expected, the message would be much more supportive for Sterling, suggesting the economy retained momentum even after temporary war-related support faded, giving the hawkish bloc more room to expand in September.
So Thursday’s real test isn’t simply whether the UK grew in Q2 — it’s whether the UK economy still had momentum once stockpiling stopped.
ActionForex’s Technical View: EUR/GBP and GBP/CHF EUR/GBP has twice been rejected by the falling 55-day EMA, keeping the downtrend from 0.8863 intact. A break of 0.8528 minor support would suggest the rebound from 0.8453 has already run its course and bring a deeper fall back to retest 0.8453. A sustained break there would reopen the broader decline from 0.8863.
That technical setup would fit a stronger June GDP print particularly well. If the economy proves resilient enough to keep BoE hawks gaining ground, Sterling would have a clearer relative policy advantage against the Euro. On the other hand, a weak June print would weaken that argument and reduce pressure for another EUR/GBP leg lower.
GBP/CHF may offer an even cleaner expression of Sterling strength because the SNB policy outlook is far less hawkish. The rally from 1.0281 is still in progress, although momentum has stalled near the rising channel ceiling. Further upside remains favored while 1.0808 support holds.
A decisive break through channel resistance would open scope for acceleration toward the 161.8% projection of 1.0281 to 1.0674 from 1.0468, at 1.1104. Loss of 1.0808 would instead argue the rally is entering a deeper correction.
Thursday Is Really About September Q2 headline will get attention, but June could decide how markets frame the September BoE meeting. Three consecutive meetings of widening hawkish dissent show the Committee is drifting closer to tightening. Higher oil gives hawks more inflation ammunition — what they still need is evidence the economy can absorb another move.
A resilient June print would strengthen the case for EUR/GBP downside and GBP/CHF upside. A weak one would suggest Q2 strength was partly borrowed from earlier stockpiling, giving BoE doves stronger ground to push back.
Key Takeaways BoE hawkish dissent has widened at every meeting this year, from 8-1 in April to 6-3 in July, signaling gradual movement toward tightening even without a majority yet. Higher oil is adding inflation pressure the BoE can’t ignore, but the Committee needs evidence the economy can absorb a hike before acting on it. June monthly GDP (forecast -0.1% m/m) matters more than the flattering 0.4% Q2 headline, since Q2 strength was partly inflated by stockpiling that faded by June. A resilient June print would support EUR/GBP downside toward 0.8453 and GBP/CHF upside toward 1.1104; a weak print would favor BoE doves and undercut both trades. Thursday’s data matters most for how it shapes September BoE expectations, not for the Q2 headline number itself.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
EUR/USD trades around 1.1535 on Tuesday at the time of writing, posting a modest 0.06% decline on the day. The pair is moving further away from its recent seven-week high of 1.1581 as the stalemate in negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran keeps geopolitical tensions elevated and supports Oil prices.
Washington and Tehran are struggling to reach a compromise that would allow the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for global energy trade. Reciprocal demands for compensation over war damages are reducing hopes for a swift peace agreement, while shipping traffic through the strait remains severely restricted.
Prospects for de-escalation have deteriorated further after Iran ruled out the possibility of fresh negotiations with US President Donald Trump. According to reports citing Iranian media, Tehran intends to wait until Trump's term ends on January 20, 2029, before considering a return to the negotiating table.
Disruptions also persist in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, adding to concerns over key shipping routes in the region. Against this backdrop, Oil prices are moving higher, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trading around $82.50 at the time of press.
Higher energy costs are a negative factor for the Euro (EUR), as the Eurozone remains heavily dependent on energy imports. A prolonged period of elevated Oil prices could increase cost pressures and weigh on the region's growth outlook.
Across the Atlantic, the US Dollar (USD) finds some support from hawkish comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack. Hammack said on Monday that current monetary policy “is not hurting the economy” and that she expects more than one interest rate hike will be needed to bring inflation back toward the target.
The comments come as investors remain divided over the Fed's next monetary policy decision in September. Attention now turns to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, due on Wednesday, which could provide fresh clues about the interest rate outlook.
Headline inflation is expected to ease to 3.4% YoY in July from 3.5% in June. Core inflation, meanwhile, is expected to fall to 2.5% YoY from 2.6% in the previous month. An upside surprise could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary policy and provide further support to the US Dollar, while softer figures could put the currency under renewed pressure.
Euro volatility sinks as EUR/USD stays pinned in tight pre-CPI rangeAnalysts at ING highlight the increasingly subdued trading backdrop, noting that "EUR/USD realised volatility continues to sink and one-year is now at 5.8% – matching the low from November 2024." They add that "it is hard to see that environment changing anytime soon – or at least until mid-September when central bankers around the world return from their summer breaks," reinforcing the view that near-term price action is likely to remain constrained.
ING also flags positioning risks on the European side, referencing recent work on "the dollar hedge ratios of European investors." The bank cautions that "the risk here is that European investors in the US are once again underhedged and have to quickly raise their dollar hedge ratios should the Dollar look vulnerable again," a dynamic that could influence flows if sentiment toward the Dollar shifts.
Against this backdrop, ING judges that "it is hard to see EUR/USD trading much outside a 1.1515-1.1560 range today," underscoring the narrow intraday parameters. Strategists at Societe Generale share a similar view, observing that the Euro has "trimmed NFP gains for a second day after running into resistance at 100dma (1.1567)" and characterising conditions as a "rangebound session today ahead of US CPI tomorrow." Societe Generale sets out the broader technical framework with "support 1.1500, resistance 1.1625," suggesting that sizeable option interest and key moving averages are likely to keep EUR/USD anchored in the near term.
EUR/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1537, holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it sits under the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at 1.1542 while only marginally above the 200-period SMA at 1.1526. Price is effectively testing the descending resistance trend line around 1.1537, suggesting the pair is capped by nearby overhead supply, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.4 hinting at subdued momentum rather than oversold conditions.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the trend-line pivot near 1.1537, followed by the 100-period SMA at 1.1542, which would need to be reclaimed to ease downside pressure. On the downside, initial support is provided by the upward-sloping trend-line break area around 1.1527, ahead of firmer demand at the 200-period SMA near 1.1526, where a sustained break lower would likely extend the bearish phase toward lower hourly lows.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold price (XAU/USD) trades 0.26% lower at around $4,380 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The precious metal comes off the two-month high of $4,435 posted earlier in the day, as oil prices have rallied further due to escalated uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage to almost 20% of global energy supply.
Brent extends gains as US-Iran tensions keep Strait of Hormuz in focusAnalysts at Danske Bank highlight that in commodities, “Brent crude climbed to USD 87/bbl as hopes faded once again for a near-term resolution to the US-Iran conflict and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.” They note that negotiations over the key shipping route “have stalled, with President Trump's latest demands on war compensation adding further uncertainty to the prospect of a deal,” leaving the oil complex firmly driven by geopolitical risk.
Higher oil prices prompt global inflation expectations, a scenario that accelerates fears of interest rate hikes by global central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Gold.
Meanwhile, financial markets await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday. The inflation data is expected to significantly influence Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations, as Chairman Kevin Warsh said in his July monetary policy press conference that officials are committed to bringing inflation down to the 2% target.
ING strategists point out that “US rates ended last week with a dovish aftertaste on the back of poor payroll numbers, but the CPI figure this week should be more instrumental.” With “only two more CPI readings” before the September Fed meeting and “around 40% of a hike priced in,” they argue that markets still need to “make up their minds about the next Fed move.” ING adds that “a benign CPI could help ease fears about Fed Chair Kevin Warsh turning the central bank overly dovish, which should also bring longer rates lower too,” reinforcing the idea that the inflation data will be pivotal in shaping both policy expectations and the rates curve.
Gold Technical Analysis
XAU/USD trades at around $4,377.89. The metal holds a constructive bullish bias as it remains above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $4,174.76, keeping the short-term trend supported.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.40 is approaching overbought territory, suggesting firm upside momentum but also hinting that the latest advance could be vulnerable to a pause or shallow correction.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA around $4,174.76, which coincides with the July high that was the prior resistance zone. Looking up, the yellow metal needs a decisive break above the intraday high at $4,435.40 to extend the rally towards the May 29 high at $4,595.34.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) nudges lower against a firmer US Dollar (USD) for the second consecutive day on Tuesday, as doubts about the fate of the US-Iran peace negotiations hurt market confidence and boost Oil prices higher. The NZD/USD pair remains trading within the last two weeks’ range, but the focus has shifted to the 0.5850 support, from the resistance at the 0.5900 area.
In the US, hawkish comments by Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack offset the negative impact from the weak US Nonfarm Payrolls report on Monday and provided some support to the US Dollar.
FX volatility, however, remains subdued this week, with investors split about the outcome of September's Fed meeting. In this context, all eyes are on Wednesday's US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) report, which is expected to provide further certainty about the central bank's near-term rate path.
Technical Analysis: Kiwi hovers above a set of key supports ahead of 0.5800
NZD/USD keeps treading wated within a narrow range below 0.5900, yet with technical indicators showing fading bullish momentum, which shifts the focus towards the channel bottom, at a previous resistance area near 0.5850. The 14-period Relative Strength Index in the daily chart is hovering near 59, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) in the same timeframe shows moderately positive levels, although the narrowing histogram suggests that bulls are losing steam.
Bears, however, are likely to face significant hurdles at the mentioned 0.5850 support area and, above all, at the confluence of the key 200-day SMA with the uptrend support line, around 0.5825. Further down, a break of the late-July lows, near 0.5760 would confirm a trend shift.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level of June's selloff, at 0.5916, ahead of the May and June top near 0.6000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.07%0.00%-0.05%-0.07%0.11%0.07%EUR-0.09%-0.02%-0.07%-0.12%-0.12%0.03%-0.02%GBP-0.07%0.02%-0.06%-0.11%-0.11%0.04%-0.01%JPY0.00%0.07%0.06%-0.05%-0.06%0.09%0.06%CAD0.05%0.12%0.11%0.05%0.00%0.15%0.10%AUD0.07%0.12%0.11%0.06%-0.00%0.15%0.10%NZD-0.11%-0.03%-0.04%-0.09%-0.15%-0.15%-0.04%CHF-0.07%0.02%0.00%-0.06%-0.10%-0.10%0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.78 per troy ounce, down 2.72% from the $66.59 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 8.87% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.50 on Tuesday, up from 65.92 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold rose to 4,400 USD per ounce on Tuesday, reaching a two-month high. Demand for the precious metal is growing rapidly, even amid heightened inflation risks and expectations of higher interest rates driven by elevated oil prices.
Chinese institutional investors continue to build positions in gold as a defensive asset amid heightened volatility in other markets. China’s gold-backed ETFs are recording their longest run of inflows in months.
The People’s Bank of China is also supporting the market. In July, the regulator increased its gold reserves by approximately 20 tonnes, following an increase of around 15 tonnes in June – the largest monthly addition since October 2023.
At the same time, uncertainty persists around a potential US–Iran agreement that could end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Investors are also awaiting key US inflation data this week, which could shift expectations for future Federal Reserve policy.
Technical analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,341 USD level and, following an upside breakout, moved higher to 4,435 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A move lower towards 4,370 USD is expected next, with a possible extension to 4,340 USD. A further rise towards 4,575 USD is anticipated as the local upside target. The MACD indicator signals the early stages of bearish momentum, with its signal line above the centre line at recent highs and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market broke above the 4,371 USD level and moved higher to 4,435 USD, followed by a correction to test 4,371 USD from above. A broad consolidation range is forming around 4,371 USD. A move higher towards 4,460 USD is expected, followed by a decline to 4,371 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGold has rallied to a two-month high, driven by robust demand from Chinese institutional investors and the People’s Bank of China’s continued reserve accumulation. Despite rising inflation risks and expectations of higher interest rates, the metal’s appeal as a defensive asset has strengthened amid market volatility. Uncertainty over a potential US–Iran agreement and the outlook for the Strait of Hormuz, along with upcoming US inflation data, continues to keep markets on edge. Technically, gold may see a short-term pullback towards 4,340–4,370 USD before potentially resuming its uptrend towards 4,575 USD. The metal’s near-term direction will depend on geopolitical developments and US monetary policy expectations.
Both WTI and Brent have returned to inflated levels again as traffic in the Strait of Hormuz grinds to a halt.
There seems to be no end in sight to the war, and many economies are reporting diminishing reserves of crude.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on GBPUSD, Gold, XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, USDJPY, WTI and Brent Crude Oil.
We see some technical signs on WTI with price at the upper trend line in this bearish channel and the stochastic oscillator overbought.
But this is by no means a technical trade, as only peace talks and negotiations about the passage of tankers will affect the price of crude oil.
All JPY pairs are turning bullish as the intervention by the US Treasury only seems to have had a short-term effect, as we discussed in an earlier video:
Why USDJPY Suddenly Fell | US Intervention Explained | Will the NASDAQ Catch Up? #marketoutlook.
But, as we pointed out, Scott Bessent said he might buy a few more billion dollars worth of yen, if necessary, so we may get to witness temporary JPY strength and bearish price action on pairs like USDJPY.
Check all your favourite JPY pairs as they all look roughly the same.
Last week the US saw a dreadful Non-Farm Payrolls report, meaning that the US Federal Reserve will likely not raise interest rates next month, driving USD weaker.
The Canadian figures, on the other hand, were much better than analysts’ expectations, driving CAD stronger.
These factors, with the rising price of crude, saw price action on USDCAD falling to a key level with bearish technicals.
We will now watch for a break below support and a long way to fall before the next key levels.
Be aware that tomorrow we have US CPI, which is the key measure of inflation for the Fed, so anything can happen.
Another USD pair we will be watching is AUDUSD, which has retraced from the news and has fallen to this lower trend line on the 4-hour.
The weaker USD has gold and silver climbing again, but our stochastic oscillator looks like it might turn down; keep an eye on the economic and geopolitical news.
We are seeing a descending triangle in the UK’s FTSE100 index, and price is stalled at support.
A fall in crude oil prices may also have a negative effect on the FTSE, and GBP will usually influence it.
We can see on the GBP charts that the Pound has short-term strength against all others except CAD and NZD.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
Gold made a Sunday opening low exactly at first support at 4322/4317 .
Shorts at strong 5 month trend line resistance at 4355/4360 then worked perfectly on the retest of first support at 4322/4317 for a 450 tick profit.
Longs here also worked perfectly for the second time yesterday as we made a low for the day exactly here & shot higher again for another 450 tick profit.
The break above the resistance at 4355/4360 in late evening was a buy signal to test the 100 day moving average at 4389.
I told you not to try shorts as I thought we would continue higher.
The break above 4394 was another buy signal targeting 4421/4425 and we reached 4434 over night.
We keep buying Gold at support levels & on breakouts above resistance and this strategy is working so well.
Bulls will want Gold to hold the 100 day moving average at 4390/86 today to target 4495/4500.
A break below 4382 however risks a slide to a buying opportunity at 4370/4365 & longs need stops below 4360.
Just be aware that a break below here can target another buying opportunity at 4340/4330 & longs need stops below 4320.
The Euro (EUR) extends losses for the second consecutive day against the British Pound (GBP) on Tuesday, weighed by a cautious market mood as hopes of a swift end to Iran’s war wane and Oil prices climb. The EUR USD pair remains capped below 0.8550 after hitting two-week lows at 0.8536 on Monday.
In the absence of key macroeconomic releases in the UK or the Eurozone, geopolitical tensions are the main market driver on Tuesday. In that sense, Strategists at Rabobank caution that, although the Eurozone's economy seems to have weathered the higher energy prices and supply disruptions from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the breakdown of the US-Iran peace agreement "clearly implies downside risks to growth and upside inflation concerns,” posing a heavy weight on the Euro.
Technical Analysis: Bears remain in control while below 0.8550
EUR/GBP broke the ascending channel in late July, and confirmed a bearish reversal this week after slipping below a previous support at the 0.8550 area, which is now holding bulls. Momentum indicators endorse the bearish view, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) hovering in the mid-30s and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at slightly negative levels.
Initial support emerges at 0.8530 (July 24 low) and below here, a previous resistance area, around 0.8510. On the topside, the mentioned 0.8550 area should be broken to bring price action back to the previous ranges and shift the focus back to Monday's highs, at 0.8566 and the August 5 and 6 highs, near 0.8580.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.09%0.04%0.02%-0.01%-0.00%0.19%0.10%EUR-0.09%-0.04%-0.07%-0.08%-0.05%0.11%0.01%GBP-0.04%0.04%-0.04%-0.05%-0.02%0.15%0.05%JPY-0.02%0.07%0.04%-0.01%0.00%0.18%0.09%CAD0.00%0.08%0.05%0.01%0.03%0.19%0.09%AUD0.00%0.05%0.02%-0.01%-0.03%0.16%0.07%NZD-0.19%-0.11%-0.15%-0.18%-0.19%-0.16%-0.09%CHF-0.10%-0.01%-0.05%-0.09%-0.09%-0.07%0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Key Points:U.S. CPI is the primary FX catalyst as traders assess whether inflation will alter expectations for the Fed's September decision.UK second-quarter GDP is another important catalyst for GBP/USD and expectations surrounding Bank of England policy.DXY remains technically vulnerable below its key moving averages while defending rising trendline support near 99.42.EUR/USD is testing long-term resistance near 1.1556, with a breakout potentially strengthening its bullish structure.GBP/USD remains constructive above its rising trendline and moving averages while buyers challenge 1.3516 resistance.
US Dollar News: CPI Test Puts Fed and FX Policy in Focus As we enter August 11, attentions are on the anticipated July CPI data to be released on Wednesday. The result of this CPI data will ultimately decide if the Fed continues its pause on rate increases or if it resumes tightening in September. Economists expect a 0.2% month-on-month increase in the core CPI. Pocket appreciations, consistent with that forecast, would likely reflect inflation returning to the Fed’s 2% target. In June, the Fed’s preferred core inflation measure was reported at 3.3% with an increase from the previous year at 2.8%.
Prior expectations around interest rates have become unpredictable as the persistent inflation and regional energy shocks challenge Chair Warsh’s decision to keep rates the same in the last meeting, despite the three dissents for a rate increase. Additionally, President Trump’s Larry-Kudlow-like policies to undermine the Fed’s deliberations and autonomy by targeting a Fed Governor have added to the already increasing fundamental risks of the dollar.
There are also many uncertainties for the euro. Recent news out of Washington indicate that the yen was propped up by the recent dollar selling done by the U.S. Treasury. This has also sparked questions around currency coordination and if the U.S. Treasury was working to support the dollar while avoiding pressure on the bond market. For the ECB, that equates to staying the course for now following their last policy meeting in July.
Sterling is focusing on this week’s second-quarter UK GDP data. Most economists say the economy grew by around 0.4% in Q2. This would follow Q1’s 0.6% growth. Despite the challenges of the Iran situation and supply chain issues, activity remained resilient. The data will matter for the Bank of England as stronger data means the bank can keep an eye on inflation risks. The data will also affect the U.S. dollar, euro, and pound. Weaker figures would mean the BoE would do more to fight inflation. For now, U.S. CPI is the most important data for the currency markets. PPI and retail sales data are also important this week.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds Rising Trendline but Remains Below Key EMAs Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index currently trades at $99.88. The index is currently trading slightly above the rising trendline and a key horizontal support at $99.42. Although the index trades above the rising trendline and horizontal support, the index is currently trading below the 50-day EMA ($100.32) and the 100-day EMA ($99.91) and therefore bears still control the index. Buying pressure is apparent from the most recent candles defending the rising trendline. This, however, is not enough to be considered a bullish trend, and is currently lacking confirmation.
The RSI is currently at 41, which indicates that the selling pressure has diminished, however the RSI is still below the neutral mark at 50. Resistance for the index is expected at $100.36, $100.82, and $101.62. In the event the index falls, support is expected at $99.42. Below $99.42 is expected support at $98.76 and $98.18.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Sterling Tests Rising Trendline Near $1.3500 GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is trading around $1.3499, and is still trading above the rising trendline which supported the recovery since late July. The price is also still above the 50-period EMA at $1.3456 and the 100-period EMA at $1.3427, and although the price has been consolidating, the structure is still Bullish. Smaller bodies around the $1.3500 area suggest hesitation.
They are not large enough to indicate a reversal. The RSI is at 58, suggesting there is bullish momentum, which is healthy, but still not overbought. The areas of resistance for this momentum are $1.3516, $1.3559 and $1.3601. Moving in the other direction, support for this momentum is $1.3437, $1.3401 and $1.3343. In my opinion, if the GBP/USD is able to trade above the rising trendline, the Bullish setup is intact. I also believe that a break above $1.3516 could extend the move toward $1.3559.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Stalls Below Long-Term Trendline at $1.1556
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD currently stands at $1.1534. Price activity shows the Euro trading along the long term falling trendline from where multiple attempts to move higher have been capped. The 50 day moving average (MA) stands at $1.1496, while the 100 day MA stands at $1.1542, and the EUR/USD is positioned below the 50 day MA indicating recent resistance.
Recent price movement has shown that the buyers could be losing steam after the strong bounce from $1.1357, and resistance has been built at $1.1556. The RSI (relative strength index) has an open bullish setup at 58, although a clean break above is what is called for.
In the short term, $1.1556 is the first resistance level, followed by $1.1674 and then $1.1790. In the short term, $1.1455 is the first major support level with the next support level standing firmly at $1.135
Related Articles
U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Oil Rallies 5%: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPYEUR/USD, GBP/USD, and USD/CAD – Short-Term Forecast for 10/8/2026Markets Continue to Watch the Middle East and MoreAbout the Author
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower on Tuesday, retreating to levels below $64.50, after rejection at seven-week highs around $66.60 on Monday. A more cautious market mood, as the peace negotiations between the US and Iran stall, and hawkish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are providing some support to the US Dollar.
Precious metals are struggling on Tuesday as the US and Iran fail to reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which drives away hopes of a swift peace deal and pushes Oil prices higher.
Apart from that, Cleveland Federal Reserve (Fed) President Beth Hammack, affirmed on Monday that the current monetary policy "is not hurting the economy" and that the bank will have to hike rates more than once to bring inflation back to target. These comments triggered some hopes of a September rate hike, although investors await the US Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reading, due on Wednesday, for confirmation.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at the $63.30 area
XAG/USD has reached the target of the bullish Head & Shoulders (H&S) pattern in the $67.00 area, before correcting to the mid-range of the $64.00s. Momentum indicators in the daily chart have eased but remain within bullish territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator above zero.
Bears are likely to be tested at the previous resistance area, now turned support, around $63.30. A confirmation below here would shift the focus towards the August 6 and 7 low, around $61.00, ahead of the broken H&S neckline, now around $51.55.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the two-month high of $67.17 ahead of a more critical barrier formed by the 200-day SMA at $71.38 and the mid-June highs around $71.50.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD extended last week’s rally, but overbought conditions should confine intraday moves to a 1.3490–1.3535 band. On a 1–3 week horizon, the British Pound (GBP) could test 1.3555, though a sustained break above is seen as unlikely, with strong support now at 1.3460.
Pound upside persists but gains seen limited"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP soared last Friday and continued to rise yesterday, closing 0.10% higher at 1.3507. While GBP could rise further, the combination of slowing momentum and overbought conditions suggests any advance is likely to be contained within a 1.3490/1.3535 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.3485), but we indicated that “it remains to be seen whether it can break above 1.3555.” On Wednesday (05 Aug, spot at 1.3450), we indicated that “upward momentum has since eased, but there is still a chance, albeit not a high one, for GBP to rise toward 1.3555.” Last Friday, GBP rose sharply, and yesterday, it rose further and printed a high of 1.3530. Upward momentum has improved slightly, and GBP could test 1.3555. Based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely. To keep the momentum going, GBP must hold above 1.3460 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.3410)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold – Chart Gold (XAU/USD) rebound probes support of rising channel near $4,360. Gold dropped from the $4,430 area where the top of the rising channel capped the latest up move. While the latest price action has suggested profit-taking, the price is well above the 50 and 100 EMAs in the $4,296 and $4,224 areas respectively, and is in a bullish structure. The RSI is briefly in the 55 area and has eased from an overbought condition, suggesting some pressure might have been released during the price rally.
Support is in the $4,360, $4,299 and $4,224 areas. $4,368, $4,430 and $4,492 are resistance. The current structure of the silver price suggests consolidation rather than a reversal as long as the lower channel boundary is in place.
For $4,360 support to hold, I expect the channel to remain intact and a move to $4,430 possible. However, a break of $4,360 support should open further correction to the $4,299 area.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Gold and silver break long-running downtrends Macro headwinds ease as yields, dollar retreat Five-day gains unusually high relative to comparable periods Momentum indicators continue to favour further upside Gold and silver have surged over the past week, with the scale of the move far greater than what would typically be expected based on movements in traditional macro drivers. The question now is whether this is merely a bear market rally, or the beginning of a more sustained push back towards the January highs.
Macro Conditions Turn Less Hostile The latest breakout coincided with an easing in market conditions, providing something akin to a release valve for precious metals after a period of intense pressure. The US dollar index has fallen around 1.7% from its late-July peak, helped in part by the intervention episode involving the Japanese yen. US two and 10-year Treasury yields have also pulled back from recent highs, with the former largely reflecting the retracement in hawkish Fed pricing following the July FOMC.
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
While debatable as to whether we’ve seen the highs for the big dollar and yields, the pullback likely contributed to the pop in precious metals.
Dollar Correlations Strengthen As seen in the correlation analysis below, both gold and silver retain an modest inverse relationship with the US dollar and Treasury yields, with the relationship generally strengthening over the past two months relative to longer-term levels.
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
Over the past 60 sessions, gold’s correlation with DXY stood at -0.50 while silver’s was -0.51, above their respective three-year correlations of -0.39 and -0.30. The relationship with 10-year Treasury yields is also negative, although far weaker at -0.24 for gold and -0.19 for silver over the same 60-day window.
While traditional macro relationships remain in place, what stands out on this occasion is not the direction of the latest move, but its magnitude.
Gold and Silver Deliver Rare Moves Looking at how gold and silver have typically responded to moves in the DXY and US 10-year Treasury yields across comparable five-session windows over the past three years, what stands out about the this move is just how large it has been.
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
Gold has surged 8.6% over the past five trading sessions, compared with a model-implied gain of just 0.5%. The resulting macro-adjusted move ranks in the 99.9th percentile of comparable five-session periods over the past three years. Incredibly rare.
Silver has seen an even larger gain of 11.2%, against a model-implied rise of 0.9%, putting its macro-adjusted move in the 96.4th percentile over the same three-year period.
Whether the break of long-standing downtrends after a period of compression, a growing belief among traders that yields and the dollar may have peaked for now, or something else entirely, the scale of the moves have been highly unusual.
Gold Bulls Target 200DMA
Source: TradingView
As written in a separate analysis note on Monday, the next upside barrier to gold’s advance stood at $4,367, a level that had previously acted as both support and resistance. As seen above, the price broke cleanly above it late Monday, touching the 100-day simple moving average before extending the move today.
Those two levels now become the immediate ones of note on the downside, with the 200-day moving average the next key level overhead, sitting around the psychologically important $4,500 per ounce level.
With RSI 14 continuing to trend higher above 50, upside momentum continues to build. That message is reinforced by MACD, which has staged a bullish crossover and flipped positive. Combined, it favours buying pullbacks and breakouts, rather than playing it from the short-side.
As such, pullbacks towards either the 100-day moving average or $4,367 offer potential long setups, allowing for a stop to be placed underneath either for protection against reversal. Initial targets include the 200-day simple average, followed by $4,580, $4,650 and $4,775, all of which acted as resistance earlier this year.
If gold was to reverse back beneath $4,367, it would give bulls some food for thought, raising the risk of a period of sideways range trade rather than an extension of the bullish breakout.
Silver Breakout Brings $71 Into View
Source: TradingView
While the move doesn’t look as spectacular on the silver chart, the breakout earlier this week saw the price break above the 50-day simple moving average, the downtrend running from the record high set earlier this year, and horizontal resistance at $63.29. The price has since gone on with the move, pushing higher towards resistance at $67. Those two levels are now the immediate focus for anyone trading silver.
The message from the oscillators is bullish. RSI 14 continues to trend higher and is not yet overbought, sitting around 64. That message is confirmed by MACD, which has staged a bullish crossover and flipped positive, indicating upside momentum is building. Combined, that favours buying dips and bullish breakouts.
Pullbacks towards $63.29 would provide a potential entry for those contemplating longs, allowing for stops to be placed beneath it, the downtrend running from the January high, or the 50-day simple moving average, depending on desired risk-reward. If the price does not pull back and instead breaks above $67 and holds there, that too creates a long setup, allowing for entry above with a stop beneath for protection. Upside targets would include the 100-day simple moving average, followed by $71, where the 200-day simple moving average coincides with resistance that capped the price in June.
A break above the 200-day simple moving average would be particularly interesting, especially as the move over the past few days comes from what resembles a long-running falling wedge. The structure is not perfect, with both sides tested on only a few separate occasions, but it nonetheless suggests there is a risk we could see a resumption of the broader bullish trend seen earlier this year.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note EUR/USD has stalled after last week’s surge, with flat momentum pointing to a 1.1530–1.1560 intraday range. For the next 1–3 weeks, the Euro’s upside hurdle has risen, requiring a close above 1.1580 to target 1.1600 and beyond, while strong support has shifted up to 1.1515.
Euro consolidates below 1.1580 barrier"24-HOUR VIEW: Having surged to a high of 1.1580 last Friday, EUR traded in a relatively quiet manner between 1.1539 and 1.1569 yesterday. EUR closed slightly lower by 0.14% at 1.1542. Momentum indicators are mostly flat, and today, we expect EUR to trade in a range, most likely between 1.1530 and 1.1560."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: The following is from our latest update from last Friday: “Our most recent narrative was from Monday (03 Aug, spot at 1.1530), when we indicated that “there is a chance for EUR to test the significant resistance at 1.1565.” We added that “should EUR close above this level, it could rise toward 1.1600.” Over the past few days, EUR tested 1.1560 thrice but failed to break above. Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a break below 1.1495 (‘strong support’ level) would mean that EUR has likely entered a range-trading phase.” EUR subsequently popped to a high of 1.1580 before closing at 1.1558. There has been no significant increase in upward momentum, and the hurdle for further gains has risen, with EUR needing to close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected. The ‘strong support’ level is now at 1.1515 instead of 1.1495."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The gold price outlook is turning cautious as a strong rally into a decade-long trendline runs into slowing momentum and an overbought daily RSI. Razan Hilal, FOREX.com Market Analyst, breaks down gold's technical picture and the catalysts that could shape its next major move.
She examines why the daily RSI reaching overbought territory raises near-term pullback risk even as gold's broader trend stays bullish above a near ten-year trendline. She also weighs how the upcoming U.S. CPI report and Federal Reserve rate expectations could tip the balance, alongside persistent geopolitical risk across Europe.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) has reacted with moderate declines against the US Dollar (USD) following Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock's speech on Tuesday. The AUD/USD spiked down below 0.7050, from Monday’s highs near 0.7075, as Bullock addressed the press, following the bank's monetary policy decision, to regain lost ground shortly afterwards.
The RBA left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, and Bullock struck a hawkish note, hinting at a likely interest rate hike in the coming months. The RBA Governor also affirmed that the domestic economy is operating “above capacity” and that it will be needed to slow down economic growth to tame inflationary pressures.
Technical Analysis: The near-term bias remains positive
AUD/USD hovers around 0.7050, holding within an upward-sloping parallel channel and retaining a mildly bullish near-term bias. Momentum indicators, however, have retreated into neutral territory with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) nearing the 50 midline and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slipping marginally into negative territory, hinting at waning upside pressure rather than a decisive reversal.
Bears would need to break the channel floor, around 0.7030 and the August 6 and 7 lows, at 0,7022 to confirm a trend shift and aim for last week's low, at the 0.6985 area. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier near 0.7085 (June 15 high), ahead of the channel top, now around 0.7120.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%-0.05%-0.08%-0.07%-0.06%-0.10%-0.00%EUR-0.03%-0.07%-0.06%-0.08%-0.04%-0.12%-0.01%GBP0.05%0.07%0.00%-0.03%0.01%-0.05%0.05%JPY0.08%0.06%0.00%-0.01%0.02%-0.04%0.07%CAD0.07%0.08%0.03%0.00%0.04%-0.03%0.07%AUD0.06%0.04%-0.01%-0.02%-0.04%-0.07%0.04%NZD0.10%0.12%0.05%0.04%0.03%0.07%0.11%CHF0.00%0.01%-0.05%-0.07%-0.07%-0.04%-0.11% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
The RBA held its cash rate at 4.35% as widely expected and maintained its hawkish bias in the statement. It arguably had to do so to help manage inflation expectations. While it closed with a warning of further hikes, it was conditional on “if upside risks materialise”. And with the decision to hold being unanimous, there appears to be no urgency to tighten.
View related analysis:
Japanese Yen Outlook: US CPI, Intervention Risks Put USD/JPY Bulls on Notice Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD in the Hands of the RBA and US CPI FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Longs Plunged, Yen Shorts Slashed Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? While the impact of the Middle East conflict has not resulted in the higher inflation feared, the RBA acknowledged that elevated commodity prices continue to pose an inflation risk. Ultimately, inflation remains too high and is unlikely to fall quickly – and that should be enough to expect hawkish holds from the RBA going forward, even if the hawkish bias is viewed as an insurance policy against upside inflation risks rather than signalling an assured move to raise rates.
This provides a mildly bullish case for the Australian dollar, thanks to its higher yield and traders scaling back expectations for Fed rate hikes. But those seeking a more meaningful policy divergence between the RBA and Fed are likely to be disappointed.
Source: RBA, LSEG
AUD/USD Wobbles as Hawkish RBA Hold Meets US CPI Money Markets Price Out Further RBA Rate Hikes The OIS curve is broadly lower as money markets continue to price out even a single hike a year from now. ASX 200 rose 0.4% and trades just beneath its record high, with the prospects of no further hikes deemed as a good sign from local equity traders The Australian dollar was a touch lower against all FX majors, aside from thew Swiss franc AUD/NZD is leading the way lower among Aussie pairs, down for a second day and 0.2% lower on the day AUD/USD is down less than 0.1% from yesterday’s close, making it a low volatility even for the Australian dollar with no policy divergence to lean into
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar vs US Dollar The Australian dollar continues to grind higher in a somewhat predictable yet messy way. Notice that AUD/USD seems to print a solid bullish candle every few days, but each time its range loses momentum as it tries to make its way to 71c. The Aussie is currently lower for a second day, though it is hardly showing any signs of strength from the bear camp.
With a mildly bullish fundamental backdrop, Australian dollar bulls may be seeking dips with the 71c handle in sight. But given the hard work it is making of any gains, I am also on guard for a pullback. Perhaps just to its 10-day EMA (0.7032), or the potential support zone between 0.70–0.7128, comprising the 20- and 50-day EMAs and the 70c handle.
Focus now shifts to US CPI data tomorrow, which is likely to have a bigger sway over whether AUD/USD finishes the week above or below 71c.
Source: ICE, TradingView
Highlights of the RBA Statement RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%, with the decision unanimous. Inflation remains too high, with trimmed mean inflation still elevated and little changed from the March quarter. The impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation has been less severe than expected, although oil and related commodity prices remain elevated. Inflation expectations have eased, but remain higher than earlier in the year. The RBA expects inflation to remain high for some time, with inflation not expected to return to around the midpoint of the target range until late 2027. Financial conditions have tightened following three rate hikes this year, while consumer spending is slowing as expected. The labour market has eased slightly more than expected, although only limited further easing is anticipated in the near term. The RBA remains concerned about upside risks to inflation and will raise rates further if those risks materialise. With monetary policy judged to be “somewhat restrictive”, the Board opted to hold rates while assessing how the economy evolves. View the full economic calendar
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,399.96 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 39,213.30 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 459,570.70 per tola from PKR 457,376.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,399.96
10 Grams
394,012.60
Tola
459,570.70
Troy Ounce
1,225,491.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 580.96 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 577.57 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,776.25 per tola from MYR 6,736.71 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
580.96
10 Grams
5,809.64
Tola
6,776.25
Troy Ounce
18,070.03
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,549.95 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,463.78 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 158,050.20 per tola from INR 157,038.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,549.95
10 Grams
135,504.30
Tola
158,050.20
Troy Ounce
421,422.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold started a fresh rally above the $4,250 region. It surpassed a major contracting triangle with resistance at $4,095 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil started a recovery wave above $81.50 and $82.00. Bitcoin failed to clear the $65,500 resistance and trimmed gains. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold found bids near $4,065 and $4,080 against the US Dollar. The price started a decent increase after there was a close above $4,120.
The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price settled above the $4,250 pivot level, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours). A high was formed at $4,435, and the price remains elevated.
On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,435. The next major resistance might be $4,450. A clear move above $4,450 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,500 or even $4,525. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,550 level.
If there is a downside correction, the price could test the $4,350 support or the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $3,995 swing low to the $4,435 high.
The first major support sits at $4,320. The next support could be $4,215, below which the price might slide to $4,150. The main support sits at $4,120. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,050 or even $4,020 in the coming days.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price is slowly moving higher and might rally if it closes above the $83.50 resistance.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
US NFIB Business Optimism Index for July 2026 – Forecast 97.8, versus 97.4 previous. US ADP Employment Change 4-week average – Forecast 12K, versus 15K previous.
Titan FXhttp://titanfx.com
Titan FX is a technology driven online ECN forex and commodities broker that provides traders with next generation trading conditions, institutional grade spreads, fast trade execution, deep top tier liquidity and the security of financial registration and oversight.
EUR/JPY depreciates after registering modest gains in the previous day, trading around 183.80 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 47.63 sits just below the neutral 50 line, hinting at ongoing bearish momentum without yet reaching oversold conditions.
The EUR/JPY cross is holding a mildly bearish near-term bias as it remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while it is positioned just above the nine-day EMA. This configuration suggests the cross is caught between short-term support and overhead trend resistance, with price action vulnerable to further downside while the longer EMA caps the topside.
The initial support lies at the nine-day EMA at 183.34. A successful break below the short-term moving average would reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to fall toward the eight-month low of 179.37, reached on August 3, followed by the nine-month low of 175.70.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rise toward the primary resistance at the 50-day EMA at 184.57. Further advances above the medium-term moving average would cause a bullish emergence and support the currency cross to explore the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
Markets edge toward BoJ tightening as hike odds firm into year-endBNY’s Wee Khoon Chong notes that policy expectations have shifted meaningfully, with “markets now pricing in roughly a 50% chance of a 25bp BoJ hike in September and a full hike by year-end,” underscoring the growing conviction that the BoJ will move further away from its ultra-accommodative stance over the coming months.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.01%-0.02%-0.06%-0.07%-0.07%-0.06%-0.01%EUR-0.01%-0.02%-0.06%-0.06%-0.04%-0.06%-0.01%GBP0.02%0.02%-0.04%-0.04%-0.03%-0.04%0.01%JPY0.06%0.06%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.06%CAD0.07%0.06%0.04%-0.00%0.02%-0.00%0.05%AUD0.07%0.04%0.03%-0.01%-0.02%-0.01%0.04%NZD0.06%0.06%0.04%-0.00%0.00%0.01%0.06%CHF0.00%0.01%-0.01%-0.06%-0.05%-0.04%-0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The British Pound (GBP) holds onto two-day gains marginally at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair remains firm as the British Pound outperforms despite financial markets pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in the near term.
Pound Sterling Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%-0.18%0.89%-0.14%0.08%0.12%0.29%EUR-0.08%-0.27%0.79%-0.29%-0.06%-0.06%0.11%GBP0.18%0.27%1.01%-0.03%0.21%0.23%0.36%JPY-0.89%-0.79%-1.01%-0.71%-0.47%-0.59%-0.39%CAD0.14%0.29%0.03%0.71%0.25%0.12%0.47%AUD-0.08%0.06%-0.21%0.47%-0.25%0.00%0.14%NZD-0.12%0.06%-0.23%0.59%-0.12%-0.00%0.15%CHF-0.29%-0.11%-0.36%0.39%-0.47%-0.14%-0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
Strategists at Rabobank point out that “for the UK, the market is currently pricing in a reduced expectation of a rate hike by the end of the year,
This week, the major trigger for the British currency will be the preliminary United Kingdom (UK) Q2 and the June month Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, which will be released on Thursday. In the April-June period, the UK economy is expected to have grown at a moderate pace of 0.4% vs. the previous reading of 0.6%. On a monthly basis, the GDP is seen contracting by 0.1%.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades almost flat at press time, holding onto Monday’s recovery move at around 99.80. The USD Index is expected to remain sideways as investors await the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July, which will be released on Wednesday.
US inflation seen firming but not reaccelerating in JulyBrown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad expects the upcoming US July CPI report to show inflation "firm modestly but stop short of signaling a renewed acceleration in inflation." He notes that "headline CPI is expected to rise +0.1% m/m vs. -0.4% in June and ease to 3.4% y/y vs. 3.5% in June," while "core CPI is expected to rise +0.2% m/m vs. 0.0% in June and ease to 2.5% y/y vs. 2.6% in June." The data are due Wednesday and, in Haddad’s view, should confirm a gradual cooling in underlying price pressures rather than a renewed upswing.
The US inflation data will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate expectations, as the July monetary policy statement showed heightened concerns among policymakers toward upside inflation risks.
Lately, traders have priced out the possibility of a Fed interest rate hike in the September meeting after the release of weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for July.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3500, retaining a bullish near-term tone as spot holds above the 60-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3403 and the broken downward resistance trend line now offering support around 1.3456. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.1 leans into positive territory, suggesting buyers remain in control while momentum is not yet stretched into overbought conditions.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the former trend-line cap turned floor near 1.3456, followed by the 60-day EMA at 1.3403, where a deeper pullback would be expected to attract fresh demand. As long as GBP/USD defends these layers of underlying support, the pair would likely continue to favor the topside, with bulls eyeing further gains above the recent 1.3509 close in the sessions ahead.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Read more.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.
Market moving news for Asian trading on Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgradeRupee set to open weaker as oil pressure builds, RBI support in focusSources: BoJ could raise rates again at September 17-18 meetingSouth Korea: Kospi rises for second day as Samsung Electronics jumps circa 3.6%Australian business conditions edge higher in July but confidence stays fragileNZ PM Luxon calls urgent caucus meeting to address leadership speculationPBOC sets seven-day reverse repo volume at ZERO on Tuesday, citing primary dealer demandGold hits two-month high as markets await US inflation data this weekUK data: Barclaycard spending rises 2.0% in July as consumer confidence hits 21-month highPBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.7900 (vs. estimate at 6.7497)Yen strength still hinges on BOJ hike, not capital repatriation (or intervention!), Goldman saysIntel plans to sell $15 billion worth of stock after it has risen 400% in a yearYen support looks fragile; Tokyo opts for passive strategy, missed chance to press intervention advantageRBA set to hold rates today, but markets will be watching the fine printPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decisionICYMI - Cleveland Fed's Hammack says Fed should already be raising rates, more than one hike neededUNCONFIRMED - Incoming report of further cruise missile launches from Sirik, IranMUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsWhat'd I miss? Trump counters Iran reparations demand, pushing Hormuz deal further out of reach.Summary:
Oil stays supported as Hormuz deal hopes dim further on tit-for-tat reparations demands from Iran and TrumpLibya's NOC declares force majeure at Zawiya refinery after armed clashes and storage tank fires, threatening El Sharara outputRussia's Komsomolsk refinery in Khabarovsk Krai attacked, over 6,500km from UkraineFX subdued; AUD in focus ahead of RBA decision (2:30pm Sydney), hawkish hold expectedKospi up circa 0.6% for a second day on Samsung strength; won stronger, foreigners net buyersJapan closed for holiday; media reports firm September 18 BoJ hike expectations, yen little moved regardlessSingapore Q2 GDP beats at 5.9% y/y, 2026 growth forecast raised to 4.5-5.5% on AI boom; MAS says policy stance remains appropriateOil remained supported in the absence of a Strait of Hormuz deal and with efforts to reopen the waterway dampened by tit-for-tat demands by Iran and US President Trump for reparations.
Further, Libya's NOC declares force majeure at Zawiya refinery after clashes. Libya's state-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) declared force majeure at its 120,000 b/d Zawiya refinery following clashes between armed groups. The refinery experienced fires after storage tanks were hit, multiple times, threatening production at the El Sharara oil field.
Russia's Komsomolsk Oil Refinery in Khabarovsk Krai came under attack. This is 6,500+ kms from Ukraine.
FX traded in subdued ranges. AUD traders are awaiting the RBA at 2:30pm Sydney time / 0430 GMT / 0030 US Eastern time, with Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock's press conference following an hour later. A hawkish hold is expected.
RBA preview: Analysts see cash rate on hold at 4.35% TuesdayRBA preview - Westpac says soft Q2 CPI gives RBA room to hold at 4.35%Preview: RBA meet Tuesday. CBA expects RBA to hold rates through the rest of 2026
MUFG opens long AUDJPY at 111.20, targets 114.50 as yen intervention debate buildsPreview: RBA to stay in pause and observe mode, TD Securities says ahead of today's decisionRBA set to hold rates today, but markets will be watching the fine printSouth Korea's Kospi rose for a second straight day, up around 0.6%, as Samsung Electronics jumped circa 3.6% while SK Hynix and LG Energy Solution slipped. Foreigners were net buyers and the won strengthened, even as broader sentiment stayed cautious on the Middle East conflict.
Japanese markets were closed for a holiday. Reports from Japanese media, citing unnamed sources, firmed expectations for a Bank of Japan September (18th) interest rate hike. The yen fell regardless, though only in a small range.
Singapore's economy grew 5.9% year on year in Q2, beating forecasts, as the government raised its 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% from 2.0-4.0%, citing a stronger than expected AI investment boom offsetting a less severe than feared Middle East war impact. An official from Singapore's central bank, the Monetary Authority of Singapore, said the country's monetary policy stance remains appropriate.
Most Popular
Singapore doubles 2026 growth outlook to 4.5-5.5% on tech cycle upgradeinvestingLive Asia-Pacific Financial Market news: Oil and gold stay near highs Rupee set to open weaker as oil pressure builds, RBI support in focusSources: BoJ could raise rates again at September 17-18 meetingSouth Korea: Kospi rises for second day as Samsung Electronics jumps circa 3.6%Australian business conditions edge higher in July but confidence stays fragileNZ PM Luxon calls urgent caucus meeting to address leadership speculationPBOC sets seven-day reverse repo volume at ZERO on Tuesday, citing primary dealer demandGold hits two-month high as markets await US inflation data this weekUK data: Barclaycard spending rises 2.0% in July as consumer confidence hits 21-month high
Gold is holding firm above $4,400 in Asia on Tuesday, extending its bullish run into a third consecutive day. Traders now look forward to Wednesday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for the next major move.
Gold shrugs off elevated Oil prices, for nowAll that’s glittering so far this week is Gold, and rightly so, as bulls continue to cheer fading expectations for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.
The odds of such a move now remain at a coin-toss level, per CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, in the aftermath of the unexpected 23,000-job decline in Nonfarm Payrolls in July.
This narrative has weighed heavily on the US Dollar (USD) across the board, supporting bullion. That was accompanied by optimism over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and easing Oil prices and inflation concerns.
However, the overnight surge in Oil prices restokes inflationary fears, particularly after negotiations between the United States (US) and Iran over a peace deal and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz hit an impasse.
“In a post on Truth Social on Monday, US President Donald Trump said he was issuing the demand for war reparations in response to Iranian negotiators making similar claims for damages for the five-month war that has killed thousands and devastated Iran’s military and economy,” per The Guardian.
In an additional setback to the diplomatic efforts, Iranian outlets and a X post by an adviser to Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reported that Tehran will wait until the US President’s term ends on January 20, 2029, to resume talks.
The renewed pessimism around the Mideast conflict has fuelled risk aversion across Asia, sending Oil prices and US Treasury bond yields higher.
Against this backdrop, it remains to be seen if Gold sustains the ongoing uptrend. The bright metal also risks a corrective decline on likely profit-taking, as traders could opt for repositioning ahead of the critical US inflation report due on Wednesday.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,427.44. The metal holds a bullish near-term tone as spot price trades above the 21-day, 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs), with the latter now offering nearby trend support around $4,389.72. The 200-day SMA at $4,498.91 remains the primary overhead barrier, capping further upside for now. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 69.22 flirts with overbought territory, suggesting buying pressure is strong but vulnerable to consolidation if momentum cools.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the 200-day SMA at $4,498.91, and a daily close above this level would open the door to a stronger bullish extension. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,389.72, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,149.71 and the 21-day SMA at $4,120.24, which collectively form a broad underlying demand zone on any deeper pullbacks.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Additional insights: China extends PBOC buying streak and speculative longs riseAnalysts at ING note that gold “extended its rally last week after the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves by 640koz (around 20 tonnes), the largest monthly addition since October 2023.” They highlight that “official reserves have now risen for 21 consecutive months as China continues to diversify reserves and strengthen its position in the global bullion market,” underscoring the sustained central-bank demand backdrop.
Beyond official sector buying, ING points out that “speculative sentiment remained supportive across metals.” In precious metals specifically, “managed money increased net long positions in COMEX gold to the highest level since January, while net longs in COMEX silver rose for the first time in five weeks,” reinforcing the constructive tone across the complex.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold (XAU/USD) scales higher for the third consecutive day – also marking the fifth day of a positive move in the previous six – and climbs to its highest level since June 5, further beyond the $4,400 mark during the Asian session on Tuesday. A weak US jobs report released last Friday pointed to signs of a cooling labor market, undermining the case for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates and driving flows towards the non-yielding bullion.
Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from volatile crude oil prices due to the Iran war. This keeps Fed rate hike bets firmly on the table, which helps the US Dollar (USD) preserve the previous day's modest recovery gains and could act as a headwind for the Gold price. In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s demand for compensation over damages caused during the war; instead, he held Iran responsible for lives lost across the region.
Meanwhile, Iran ruled out any future negotiations with Trump and said that it will wait until the US President’s term ends on January 20, 2029, to resume talks, dampening hopes for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Furthermore, shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains choked due to the Iran-backed Houthis' naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. This led to the overnight sharp spike in crude oil prices and revived inflation fears. Moreover, traders are still pricing in at least one rate hike by the Fed in 2026.
The outlook, in turn, remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields, which favors USD bulls and warrants caution before positioning for any further near-term appreciating move for gold. Traders might also opt to wait for the release of the US inflation figures – the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. The crucial data will be looked upon for more cues about the Fed's future policy path, which, in turn, will influence the USD and the XAU/USD pair.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisAn intraday breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June fall suggest that buyers retain control. This, in turn, supports prospects for additional gains to the 200-day SMA at $4,498, en route to the 61.8% retracement at $4,515 and then the higher 78.6% level near $4,669. On the downside, immediate support is offered by the 50.0% retracement at $4,406, reinforced by the 100-day SMA at $4,389, with deeper structural floors aligning at the 38.2% retracement near $4,297 and the 23.6% level at $4,162 ahead of the cycle low around $3,945.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver recently broke the resistance zone between the resistance level 62.60 (top of the previous wave 2 from July) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The breakout of this resistance zone greatly accelerated the active impulse wave C of the ABC correction (2) from the middle of July.
Given the strength of the active impulse wave C, Silver can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 71.60 – top of wave 2 from June.
FxProhttp://www.fxpro.co.uk/?ib=606792
FxPro is an award-winning online broker offering Contracts for Difference (CFDs) on forex, futures, spot indices, shares, spot metals and spot energies. FxPro serves clients in over 150 countries worldwide and offers multilingual customer support 24/5. Trading CFDs involves significant risk of loss.
Silver price (XAG/USD) depreciates after two days of gains, trading around $66.00 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The price of non-yielding Silver has taken a hit recently as rising oil prices spark renewed inflation fears and heighten expectations for interest rate hikes.
Markets remain deeply cautious due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding a potential deal between the United States (US) and Iran to end the conflict and reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz. This geopolitical tension has driven a sharp rally in crude oil, which in turn has pushed Treasury yields higher.
Meanwhile, concerns are growing that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may feel compelled to raise rates sooner rather than later, even against the backdrop of a cooling labor market. Investors are now closely watching upcoming inflation data this week to gauge the Fed's next move, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing that market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September have climbed above 51%, up from 44.4% just a day prior.
Despite these immediate headwinds, the outlook for the white metal isn't entirely dim, as strong industrial demand could soon provide a solid floor for prices. Silver continues to benefit from major global initiatives, particularly the expanding production of solar panels and upgrades to electrical grids. Underscoring this robust physical demand, recent trade data revealed that Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores experienced a massive surge, jumping 62.5% year-over-year in June to reach 219,000 tonnes.
Silver price pulled back after hitting seven-week highs on Monday amid a rally in gold fueled by improving investment demand for precious metals. According to TD Securities, “precious metals hit pause,” with the yellow metal “holding gains after the weaker jobs numbers further questioned the probability of coming Fed hikes.” The bank’s commodity strategists note that the softer US labor data has eased perceived policy tightening risks, helping to underpin gold prices even as broader momentum in the complex stalls.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7900 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7884 and 6.7497 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Softer inflation lowers urgency for immediate RBA hike Markets still favour one more hike this cycle Renewed energy price strength delivers Aussie terms-of-trade tailwind EUR/AUD and GBP/AUD trade setups in focus A likely hawkish hold from the RBA and renewed geopolitical tensions in the Gulf driving energy prices higher have swung the fundamental backdrop in favour of the Aussie relative to the European crosses.
Inflation undershoots, unemployment overshoots The RBA clearly thought there was more momentum in the economy in May than what eventually showed up in the data. It overestimated the inflationary pulse and underestimated the increase in unemployment, with both headline and trimmed mean inflation undershooting its May forecasts while unemployment overshot.
Source: FOREX.com
At face value, that suggests the path towards getting inflation back to acceptable levels may be a little more advanced than the Bank thought three months ago. But inflation is still too high, which is why the risk of another hike has not been completely snuffed out.
Markets push tightening risk further out
Source: TradingView, FOREX.com
While there is little probability attached to a hike today, making this meeting look very much like a placeholder with a hawkish hold, go further out the curve and the risk of tightening is still there. By November, when the next set of forecasts after today will be released, markets are basically at a coin flip on another hike. That lifts to 82% by February next year.
So while the amount of tightening priced by traders has been pared back relative to what underpinned the RBA’s May forecasts, the market still thinks there is a decent chance the Bank will need to go again this cycle.
Source: FOREX.com
The question is what that means for the RBA’s updated forecasts for GDP growth, unemployment and inflation released today. My suspicion is that the slight unwind in hawkish pricing will not have a particularly meaningful impact, with outcomes similar to those forecast in May.
Source: FOREX.com
Spending resilience meets housing weakness One area where the Bank’s language may be upgraded is household spending. At the June meeting, the RBA said it was “slowing as expected”, but recent data has been quite strong, particularly in discretionary areas, questioning whether that view is still warranted.
However, that potential upgrade could be offset by the housing market, where the decline in house prices has accelerated and broadened since the Bank met six weeks ago. What had been weakness in some capital cities is now more widespread, potentially becoming a larger drag on household demand.
Given the data trend and potential statement tweaks, it’s very likely the RBA will retain the guidance used in July that it “will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate target further if required.” That basically gives the Bank room to sit comfortably for now while keeping the tightening option firmly on the table.
Terms of trade tailwinds favour the Aussie When it’s all said and done, I expect the RBA will be aiming to keep market pricing relatively unchanged, avoiding an unnecessary loosening in financial conditions that would make the task of reducing inflationary pressures more difficult. That points to the Aussie dollar continuing to be underpinned by hawkish rate expectations.
And when it comes to the European crosses, the Aussie also has the advantage of being a major energy exporter, meaning higher energy prices due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Gulf deliver a positive terms-of-trade shock, the exact opposite of what we see in Europe. When you throw energy insecurity into the mix, it points to tailwinds building for the Aussie relative to the European crosses.
EUR/AUD bears eye 1.6340 break
Source: TradingView
EUR/AUD looks heavy on the charts, sitting just above support at 1.6340. If the pair breaks beneath 1.6340 support and holds there, shorts could be set with a tight stop above the level for protection, targeting 1.6260, where the pair bottomed in July. Beyond that, a break of 1.6260 would open the door for a retest of 1.6130, where the price has bottomed and bounced on multiple occasions going back several years.
The message from the oscillators at this point is neutral. RSI (14) has been setting sequentially lower highs and now sits marginally below the neutral 50 level. MACD has also turned negative and is on the cusp of a bearish crossover. But neither indicator is providing a strong steer, placing more emphasis on price action.
GBP/AUD squeeze risk builds near 1.9150
Source: TradingView
While the fundamental backdrop favours downside for GBP/AUD, the price action warns of a potential squeeze and near-term topside break ahead of the RBA. The level in focus today is 1.9150, which has repeatedly acted as support and resistance in recent weeks. The pair is now squeezing up against that level while remaining within the broader uptrend running from the low set in late May.
With an engulfing candle printing on Monday, a clean break above 1.9150 could put the August 3 high at 1.9260 in play. Beyond that, resistance sits at 1.9350, with the 200-day simple moving average around 1.9370 and the March swing high at 1.9400 just above. If the pair breaks cleanly above 1.9150, longs could be set with a tight stop beneath the level for protection, targeting those upside levels.
Alternatively, if 1.9150 continues to cap gains, as has been the case over recent sessions, shorts could be set with a tight stop above the level, targeting a retest of the May uptrend, followed by 1.9004, the swing low set on July 28. Beyond that, 1.8945 comes into focus, having acted as resistance earlier this year.
Mirroring EUR/AUD, the oscillators are neutral for GBP/AUD. RSI (14) sits just above 50, while MACD is running parallel to the signal line around breakeven, placing more emphasis on price action for guidance.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
The Euro is poised to end Monday’s session with losses of about 0.13% against the Greenback, as recent news points to a delay in talks between the US and Iran, while, from a technical perspective, EUR/USD stalled at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1568.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookOverall, the EUR/USD is poised to consolidate further, though it is slightly tilted to the upside after buyers reclaimed the 50-day SMA. Momentum confirms the short-term upward bias, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
That said, the first resistance for EUR/USD is the 100-day SMA. A breach of the latter will expose 1.1600, followed by the 200-day SMA at 1.1629. Once those two levels are removed, the next target is the 1.1700 psychological figure.
On the flip side, if EUR/USD drops below 1.1500, a pullback towards the 50-day SMA at 1.1469 is on the cards. Below, the next area of interest is the 1.1400 mark, followed by the July 28 swing low of 1.1353.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
EUR/USD daily chart Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.00%-0.04%EUR-0.04%0.01%0.00%-0.00%-0.02%0.02%-0.04%GBP-0.00%-0.01%0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%0.00%JPY-0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.03%-0.00%0.37%-0.00%CAD-0.01%0.00%-0.02%0.03%0.03%0.38%0.01%AUD0.00%0.02%0.00%0.00%-0.03%0.00%0.03%NZD0.00%-0.02%-0.01%-0.37%-0.38%-0.01%0.03%CHF0.04%0.04%-0.00%0.00%-0.01%-0.03%-0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Japanese yen came under broad pressure on Monday, allowing yen crosses to recover some of their post-intervention losses. However, with the MOF and US Treasury prepared to coordinate again and US CPI due Wednesday, yen bears may be playing with fire as USD/JPY approaches key resistance.
View related analysis:
Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Plunge Loses Steam, but Risks Remain Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD in the Hands of the RBA and US CPI FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Longs Plunged, Yen Shorts Slashed Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Faces CPI and Intervention Risks The Japanese yen was the weakest FX major on Monday, falling against all other FX majors and allowing yen pairs to recoup some of their post-intervention losses. GBP/JPY rose around 1% to a one-week high, while the 0.9% gain on USD/JPY marked its best day since January.
The move looks less like a fresh bout of US dollar strength and more like a partial unwinding of the post-intervention yen squeeze, with traders seemingly willing to rebuild yen-funded carry positions as the initial shock fades. However, there is a significant difference this time around: traders know that Japan is prepared to intervene again, and the US Treasury has joined forces with the Ministry of Finance to support the yen.
Source: LSEG
Yen Weakness Returns, but Intervention Risk Remains That arguably makes the current yen sell-off a case of traders playing with fire. The underlying carry dynamics still favour yen weakness, but the prospect of another coordinated intervention means the risk is no longer simply about getting the direction wrong. A sharp and potentially disorderly reversal remains a genuine threat, particularly if USD/JPY approaches the levels that previously prompted action.
For now, however, the yen has begun to retrace some of its intervention-driven gains. The charts show how far that recovery could extend across the major yen crosses.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Softer US CPI Could Renew Pressure on USD/JPY While traders would be wise to keep a wary eye on the potential for fresh intervention in the yen, the main calendar event is Wednesday’s US inflation report. Traders have scaled back bets of a Fed hike in recent weeks, with Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report being the latest to disappoint. This puts traders on high alert for pockets of weak US data, and US CPI is no exception.
With the MOF joining forces with the US Treasury and vowing to intervene, even a slightly softer CPI report could bode well for USD/JPY bears. And that means we’ll be keeping a very close eye on how USD/JPY responds to the plethora of resistance levels nearby.
Source: BLS, ISM, LSEG
USD/JPY Technical Analysis: US Dollar vs Japanese Yen The daily chart shows that USD/JPY managed to use the 200-day EMA as a springboard and rally to a six-day high, marking its most bullish day since January. Still, the high-to-low range indicator (bottom panel) shows that volatility remains low compared to the bearish sell-off after the MOF and US Treasury joined forces to intervene in the yen and send it lower by 4% over a two-day period. The sell-off was also exacerbated by the less hawkish-than-expected FOMC meeting.
Ultimately, this move appears corrective to my eyes. And with the risk of another round of intervention growing while USD/JPY continues to rally, bulls may want to tread with caution and keep a close eye on resistance levels.
Tuesday’s high met resistance at the monthly pivot point (159.53), with the 160 handle, July low (160.47) and 160.88 high all providing additional levels of resistance for bears to track. But if US CPI comes in soft, it could provide a great timing tool for the MOF to pull the trigger again – like they did after a soft US CPI print in July 2024.
Citi Mexico released the Expectations Survey on Monday, in which the central bank polled 35 economists to gather their forecasts for monetary policy, the USD/MXN exchange Rate, inflation expectations, and economic growth.
Citi’s survey shows that the majority of the economists polled expect monetary policy to remain steady at 6.50%. Seven of those 35 expect the next movement to be a rate hike, and six expect a cut further ahead. The rest expect policy to remain steady.
The USD/MXN exchange rate is expected to end at 17.90 in 2026, unchanged. For 2027, the consensus suggests a depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN), with the exchange rate seen at 18.50, with expectations of trading within a range of 17.40-19.95.
Regarding inflation expectations for July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected at 3.13% YoY, down from 3.37% in the previous survey, while core CPI is seen at 3.94% YoY, lower than the previous survey's 4.03%.
For the medium term, CPI is projected to end at 4.02% YoY, down from 4.09%, while Core CPI, the component, is expected to drop from 4.10% to 4%.
The Mexican economy is projected to grow 1.2% in 2026, up from 1.1% in the last survey, while for 2027, the projections show the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ending at 1.8%, unchanged from the previous survey.
Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Silver’s bullish reversal is gaining strength after resistance turned support, putting near-term targets in focus while opening a potential path toward the $71–$72 resistance zone.
Resistance Turns Into Support Silver extended its short-term bull trend on Monday with a marginal new high of $65.29. Price action for the session confirmed support near a key prior resistance level, reaching a low of $62.99 for the session before buyers stepped in and drove price to new highs for the day. That low was a successful test of support near the lower swing high from early July at $63.28.
The confirmation that this price zone has switched from resistance to support further strengthens the advance and suggests that higher targets may be reached before momentum falters. Moreover, the 50-day moving average has been reclaimed for two sessions, with Monday’s close holding above it; the average is currently near $61.94.
Spot silver daily chart shows retention of recent gains. Source: TradingView $66.53–$66.10 Comes Into View Trading remains near the highs of the day at the time of writing and silver is on track to close in the upper third of the day’s range and post a new daily closing high for the current advance. The strength confirmed above puts the next higher target in sight near $66.53 to $66.10. That zone consists of the 161.8% Fibonacci projection for a small rising ABCD pattern and the 50% retracement of a prior decline.
Spot silver daily chart shows advance from lower channel boundary test of support. Source: TradingView Bigger Resistance Test Nonetheless, the successful test of support near the $63.28 lower swing high further confirms the trend reversal signal that triggered above that level. Beyond the $66.53 to $66.10 target zone, the area around the 200-day moving average near $71.18 presents the more significant potential resistance zone, especially since it lies near a long-term rising trendline, which also represents possible dynamic resistance.
The 200-day moving average begins a range of possible resistance up to the nearby 50% retracement of a second prior downswing at $72.08. Further enhancing the potential significance of the $71.18 to $72.08 price zone is another lower swing high from the prior downtrend structure at $71.56. A recovery above that swing high would trigger another trend reversal signal, making the $63.28 support test discussed at the beginning of the analysis an important early confirmation of the broader trend reversal.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Silver (XAG/USD) price climbs over 3% on Monday even though US Treasury yields rose, with the white metal refreshing seven-week highs at $66.07. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $65.76 with buyers eyeing key resistance levels.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookIn the short term, Silver continues to consolidate after clearing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $61.95, opening the door to further upside. However, the market structure continues to indicate that sellers are in charge unless XAG/USD clears the June 17 cycle high of $71.56, which would open the door to further upside.
Buyers continued to gain momentum, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). Hence, the path of least resistance is upwards.
The first key resistance is the 100-day SMA at $68.96. A breach of the latter will expose the psychological $70.00, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.30. On further strength, the next stop is the April 17 high at $83.06.
Downwards, the first support is the low of the day at $63.28. Once hurdled, the next stop would be the 50-day SMA at $61.95, followed by a support trendline at around $57.50-$57.75.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Bitcoin Talking points: BTC/USD broke out three weeks ago but once again, life above $65k was short-lived. That price was resistance for five consecutive days until today, where sellers took on more of a role to push price down to a fresh low. This begs the question as to whether bears can push down for a test of next support at $62.5k.
At this point the breakout in Bitcoin has failed and this dashes hopes of a changing of the guard for the world’s favored anti-fiat.
While Bitcoin was lauded as ‘digital gold’ a year ago, the $125k level proved to be too hard for buyers and the profit taking that brought out drove a retracement that currently stands at around 50% from that prior all-time-high.
Of course, gold had its own issues earlier this year after topping just below the $5600 level but given that the high in gold was about three months after the high in Bitcoin, the ‘digital gold’ idea was very much on its back foot when that sell-off began. After BTC flirted with a re-test of the $100k level in January, that’s when disaster hit for both gold and Bitcoin longs and it only took a few weeks for BTC/USD to set up on the $65k level, which was support for five consecutive weeks from February through March.
BTC/USD Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Bitcoin’s Next Test With the $65k failure, the question now is whether buyers come in to defend the lows and most recently, it was a batch of support that had built right around the $62,500 area on eh chart. There were approximately four days of support around that price until buyers lifted into $65k, so, if bullish, then ideally bulls would come in to offer some element of higher-low defense.
If they fail, the next spot down is around $61,500, which held a batch of higher-lows before the initial re-test of the $65k resistance level.
If that fails to hold, then it’s the $60k level that shows prominently and, so far, there’s been lacking momentum from bears beyond that level, as the post-Fed sell-off drove a break and a test below the big figure but bears were seemingly disinterested in follow-through.
Interestingly, that’s around the time of the $4k test in gold but the response to support in Bitcoin seemed faster, and more aggressive than what showed in gold which ultimately took about a month before buyers were able to force the breakout.
BTC/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
A historic shift in global capital may already be underway and Gold and Silver are moving rapidly towards its centre.
Trump’s tariffs are reigniting inflation risks. The U.S dollar faces mounting structural pressure. Expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening are fading. Central banks are accumulating Gold at record pace, while traders are questioning some of the decade’s most crowded equity trades.
These are not isolated developments. Together, they could trigger a profound rotation towards tangible hard assets.
The first week of August may have delivered the warning shot: Gold surged more than 10%, while Silver gained over 12%. On August 5 alone, Gold jumped almost 7% – roughly $300 – rallying above $4,300 an ounce, while Silver moved within striking distance of $64.
For traders waiting for confirmation, the window may already be narrowing.
China’s appetite for Gold is accelerating.
The People’s Bank of China officially added approximately 20 tonnes in July – its largest monthly increase since October 2023 – following additions of roughly 15 tonnes in June and 10 tonnes in May.
That lifted reported holdings to a record 2,366 tonnes and extended China’s accumulation streak to 21 consecutive months.
But Beijing’s ambitions extend beyond buying bullion. Hong Kong is developing new Gold clearing and settlement infrastructure designed to strengthen its role in global trading, storage and price discovery, alongside greater connectivity with mainland markets.
China is not simply accumulating Gold. It is helping build the infrastructure around it.
“Central banks rarely make strategic moves of this magnitude because of short-term price forecasts,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “They position for structural shifts years before they become obvious to everyone else.”
Gold is now approaching a potentially decisive technical threshold.
After one of its strongest weeks of 2026, prices are pressing towards $4,400 amid softer U.S economic signals, fiscal concerns and sustained institutional and Asian demand.
A convincing breakout could draw momentum capital into the market and force underexposed funds to chase.
“Major bull markets build higher floors and then punish hesitation,” Hansen says. “Once the breakout becomes obvious, the prices traders wanted are often already gone.”
If Gold is the monetary hedge, Silver could become the higher-beta expression of the same trade.
Its dramatically smaller market makes it particularly sensitive to investment flows, while demand from electrification, solar power and technology infrastructure provides a powerful industrial tailwind.
Gold historically leads major precious-metals cycles. But when participation broadens, Silver can move considerably faster.
Its 12%-plus surge during the opening week of August suggests that process may already be starting.
The currency backdrop raises the stakes further.
Pressure on the U.S dollar, shifting expectations for monetary policy and strains surrounding the yen carry trade could increasingly favour hard assets if global capital begins seeking alternatives to dollar denominated financial assets.
“A sustained dollar decline would dramatically strengthen the precious-metals thesis,” Hansen says. “Major currency cycles can provide fuel for Gold and Silver bull markets for years.”
Tariff-driven inflation. Central-bank accumulation. China strengthening its Gold infrastructure. A vulnerable dollar. Fading expectations for tighter Fed policy. Capital searching for alternatives to crowded financial assets.
Together, they could create one of the most powerful precious-metals environments of the decade.
“The biggest fortunes are rarely made after everyone agrees the bull market has begun,” Hansen says. “They are made during the transition, while positioning is still catching up with reality.”
That is why $4,400 matters.
If Gold breaks decisively above it and institutional capital follows, today’s prices may not remain available for long.
By the time the next Gold and Silver bull market becomes front-page news, the greatest opportunity may already have passed.
That is welcome news for the bulls already positioned – but potentially painful for those still sitting on the sidelines. With Gold and Silver accelerating while some of the world’s most powerful institutions continue accumulating, traders now face a simple question:
How much FOMO can they afford to handle if this breakout becomes the next major bull run?
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
The Pound Sterling (GBP) advances during the North American session on Monday, up 0.2% as markets digest developments in the Middle East and await crucial inflation data in the United States (US). The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3520 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.3483. Read More...
British Pound tests 1.3500 as US Dollar struggles to shake off NFP shockGBP/USD trades around 1.3495 on Monday at the time of writing, up a modest 0.04% on the day. However, the pair struggles to hold firmly above the psychological 1.3500 level after benefiting on Friday from a decline in the US Dollar (USD) triggered by disappointing United States (US) employment data. Read More...
British Pound outperforms at the start of the UK Q2 GDP data weekThe British Pound (GBP) trades higher against its major currency peers and is marginally up at around 1.3500 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The outperformance in the British currency seems unlikely to sustain as traders seem confident that the Bank of England (BoE) will not hike interest rates in the near term despite rising oil prices prompting global inflation expectations. Read More...
