XAU/USD Current price: $ 4,050Escalating Middle East tensions spurred risk aversion and boosted the US Dollar.United States President Donald Trump threatened a massive attack on Iran and its allies.XAU/USD turned bearish in the near term and could soon challenge $4,000. After hitting a weekly peak of $4,165 on Wednesday, Gold turned south and currently changes hands at around $4,050 a troy ounce. The US Dollar (USD) resumed rallying on the back of inflation fears linked to the escalation of the Middle East conflict.
The Houthis, an Islamic political and military faction that controls part of Yemen, declared a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia in retaliation for airstrikes at the Sanaa airport, and shot Saudi vessels. In return, United States (US) President Donald Trump threatened “major military punishment,” pushing the odds for a conflict resolution. Later in the day, President Trump announced he was considering a massive attack “greater than anything before,” further fueling USD demand.
Meanwhile, the US reported that Initial Jobless Claims declined in the week ending July 18 to 187K from the 209K from the previous one, also easing from the previous 212K. Also, the European Central Bank (ECB) announced its decision on monetary policy. The central bank left rates unchanged, as widely anticipated, while policymakers noted that uncertainty remains high “and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out.” Officials also reiterated that they are well-positioned to navigate the uncertainty caused by the Middle East conflict.
Friday will bring the preliminary estimates of the July S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for most major economies. The business activity indicators are likely to trigger some near-term noise, while softer-than-anticipated expansion is likely to feed the dismal mood and hence push the Greenback even higher.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
Technically, the four-hour chart shows that XAU/USD has turned bearish in the near term as it sits beneath the main moving averages. The 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,079.33, the 20-period SMA at $4,081.89 and the 200-period SMA at $4,117.30 all align overhead as a layered supply band that caps recovery attempts. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovers at 44, while the Momentum indicator turned flat around its midline, reflecting fading downside conviction after the sharp intraday retracement.
In the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish tone as spot price remains under the key moving averages. Gold is below the 20-day SMA at $4,070.44, while the 100-day SMA at $4,490.36 and the 200-day SMA at $4,495.63 stay well above price, suggesting the broader trend remains capped. Momentum is soft, with the 14-period Momentum indicator in negative territory and the RSI indicator hovering near 45, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than a decisive recovery.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA at $4,079.33, followed closely by the 20-period SMA at $4,081.89, forming a tight cluster that bulls would need to clear to ease short-term pressure. A more significant barrier emerges at the 200-period SMA at $4,117.30, followed by the weekly top at $ 4,165. Support, on the other hand, lays at $4,000, followed by the June monthly low at $3,941.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The Pound Sterling drops by over 0.40% against the Greenback as risk aversion weighs on most G8 currencies amid the escalation of the Middle East conflict and growing speculation of an extended US campaign against Iran. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3313 after reaching a daily high at 1.3393. Read More...
British Pound holds losses below 1.3400 as PM Burnam stokes fiscal worriesThe British Pound (GBP) consolidates losses below 1.3400 against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, on track for a 0.6% weekly decline, following a reversal from 1.3558 highs last week. The soft inflation figures released on Wednesday, coupled with growing concerns about Prime Minister Andrew Burnham’s spending plans, have sent the Pound lower across the board this week. Read More...
British Pound nudges higher above 1.3350 despite Middle East turmoilThe GBP/USD pair rebounds to near 1.3385 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid cooler-than-expected UK inflation data and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Traders will take more cues from the UK Retail Sales report, which is due later on Friday. Read More...
Looking at the swing chart with its series of lower tops at $4202.72, $4382.62 and $4595.33, to name a few, I have to say, this also indicates a downtrend.
Until that pattern breaks and traders start taking out tops and crossing to the strong side of the moving averages, the market remains tilted lower.
The two bottoms at $3959.80 and $3942.10 are important, but the most important support is the long-term bottom at $3886.46.
What to Watch Gold needs crude to pull back before anything else changes. Not a ceasefire headline. Actual tanker traffic recovering, crude coming off these levels and the inflation conversation shifting. Until that happens the dollar has support, yields have a reason to stay elevated and the hike trade keeps building into next week’s FOMC meeting. Wednesday showed gold could absorb the first wave of pressure from oil and yields. Thursday showed it could not absorb the second and the difference was crude clearing $100 and claims coming in at a 56-year low on the same session.
The trend is still down with a series of lower tops on the swing chart and both major moving averages well overhead. Gold is straddling a short-term retracement zone that could act as support but the broader pattern has not changed. The two bottoms below and long-term support are the levels that matter if sellers keep pressing and the FOMC delivers the hawkish tone the bond market is already pricing.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Multi-Timeframe Analysis USD/CAD technical analysis shows the Canadian dollar stalling in a tight range after an eight of nine week rally, with a clean breakout now in focus. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, walks through the USD/CAD setup across the weekly, daily, and four-hour charts and the levels that matter most. Boutros explains why momentum has quieted after the rally, what would confirm a larger reversal versus a resumption of the downtrend, and how the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision and core PCE inflation reading could steer the U.S. dollar. With oil prices climbing on renewed Middle East tensions, the inflation outlook stays front and center.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key USD/CAD Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Rally Tests Make-or-Break Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Defends the Uptrend as the Range Tightens British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Breakout Attempts Major Trend Reversal US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Uptrend Faces Make-or-Break Test After CPI Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Coils Above Critical Support- Decision Time Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Bulls Try to Carve Out a Low After 30% Drop Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
EUR/USD Talking Points: The European Central Bank rate decision brought Euro weakness today, as Christine Lagarde sounded unconcerned around inflation which decreased odds for near-term rate hikes from the bank. EUR/USD was holding in a bear flag formation and is now breaking below the bullish channel, indicating the possibility of bearish continuation of the broader trend. As looked at in this week’s USD price action webinar, this is a big component of the USD bullish trend which has also been supported by Yen-weakness and the continued breakout in USD/JPY.
It’s been a rollercoaster of a year for the Euro so far, as the Iran war brought a bid to the currency in April, driven by inflation expectations going higher due to energy prices. The thought there was an energy-vulnerable Europe would be forced into higher prices which would then filter through into other products, and that led to a stronger Euro. But sellers pounced and held the highs around the 1.1850 level, and as US inflation numbers came in higher that dynamic shifted, and then a more-hawkish Fed in response to that inflation helped to bring a bearish trend into the pair in June.
Once below the 1.1500 handle, however, there was a bit of calm starting to show. The pair gyrated higher in a bullish channel, building a bear flag formation, and that led into this week and this morning’s European Central Bank rate decision.
I looked into this in the weekly webinar, and as I shared then, I thought this was a key component for the DXY basket as both the bullish trend in the Dollar and the bearish trend in EUR/USD had been stalled for the past few weeks. Last week brought pullbacks into the mix, helped along by below-target CPI and PPI reports. But the broader trend re-asserted itself as a response to those sell-offs and that has led into today’s setup of continuation.
EUR/USD Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Strategy From the daily bar above we can also see a bearish engulf formation setting up, which hasn’t yet confirmed as we need the daily bar to complete before we can confidently make that claim. If it does, however, that would be a strong indication of bearish continuation potential, as such formations often show after a notable driver pushes price in the direction of the broader trend. In that scenario, the stage sets for a re-test of the prior low at 1.1325, and after that, a major Fibonacci level comes into play at 1.1275 which helped to set the high back in 2023. Below that 1.1200 is the next notable price and at that point, we’d be veering back towards the middle of the longer-term range in the pair.
EUR/USD Weekly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview EUR/USD Shorter-Term Given the momentum so far today chasing the move-lower could be a challenge. But, from recent structure, there’s a few key spots to look for lower-high resistance, particularly the 1.1402 Fibonacci level that had previously helped to hold the higher-low before this morning’s breakdown.
The swing high from this morning is also key, as that could serve as a form of invalidation of the short-term bearish momentum, and that plots at 1.1436.
And more aggressively, we have a prior swing low at 1.1378 that could be tracked for those looking for a minor pullback.
EUR/USD Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
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Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
The gold market dropped early on Thursday as the overall consolidation area continues to be a major area of importance in the market. Higher rates continue to be a massive problem, though.
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold daily chart, consolidating near 4,087 above the 4,000 level. Source: TradingView The gold market has dropped fairly significantly during the early hours on Thursday as the overall consolidation area continues to play out. The $4,000 level on the bottom has been support, with the $4,200 level on the top being resistance.
Ultimately, this is a market that is likely to continue to be very noisy and choppy, but I also recognize that there are a lot of things going on outside of the actual market itself that have a certain amount of influence. This includes, of course, the higher interest rates in the United States, which, as interest rates rise, a lot of times that can cause issues for gold.
Macro Headwinds and Technical Death Cross Weigh on Gold And the energy shock that’s being priced into the bond market has people running from anything remotely close to risk at times. The 50-day EMA broke down below the 200-day EMA a couple of weeks ago, kicking off the so-called death cross. That is a technical indicator that a lot of people will look at with suspicion, and this is typically something that longer-term traders look at as a very bearish turn of events.
Whether or not that actually plays out remains to be seen, but what does look fairly obvious at this point in time is that we have been in a range for a couple of weeks and have not been able to break out of this $200 area. This area continues to be noisy in general, and an area that short-term traders will continue to be active in, but longer-term traders will be trying to find some kind of bigger answer to bigger questions.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Rising crude oil prices and a weakening greenback pushed USD/CAD back below 1.4100, threatening a return to its July downward channel Central bank divergence remains a risk, as a cautious Bank of Canada (BoC) and hawkish Federal Reserve could limit further loonie gains The Bank of Canada’s steady policy rate keeps interest rate differentials tilted in favor of greenback dip-buyers on deeper pullbacks The US dollar briefly halted the Canadian dollar’s recent climb earlier this week. But it started falling again yesterday and still looks weak today. Now trading below 1.4100, around 1.4080, investors wonder if USD/CAD will return to the steady decline it had between late June and mid-July.
What Broke the Downtrend The brief pause in the downtrend had a clear cause. On Monday, the US administration announced new 50% tariffs on various Canadian goods, including wine, dairy, and cement. This action was stated as a response to what the US described as discriminatory practices against American products in Canada.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called this the latest in a series of unilateral US trade actions. He said Canada had “merely matched” prior US measures. Headlines like that usually hit the loonie first and hardest, which explains why the dollar strengthened Monday and Tuesday.
What Is Driving the Loonie’s Rebound? A significant increase in global crude oil prices is the primary driver behind the Canadian dollar’s resurgence. As a major exporter of commodities, Canada benefits directly from rising crude prices. Oil prices have reached new multi-week highs, which has helped to offset recent domestic challenges and provide strong fundamental support for the Canadian dollar.
Potential Risks Beneath the Surface Despite the current trend, a return to a consistent downtrend is not guaranteed. The tariffs announced on Monday will take effect in 30 days. If trade tensions escalate further before then, sentiment towards Canadian assets could shift negatively, irrespective of oil prices or interest rate movements.
While the current trend favors a stronger Canadian dollar, underlying risks require careful assessment. Uncertainties surrounding the USMCA trade agreement renewal and potential tariff discussions remain significant factors that could strengthen the US dollar if tensions increase.
Market expectations indicate that the Bank of Canada (BoC) might maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, influenced by recent lower domestic consumer price index (CPI) figures. In contrast, persistent US inflation data suggests the Federal Reserve is likely to continue its restrictive monetary policy for a longer period.
Investors should consider USD/CAD with a balanced view. Those expecting further gains in the Canadian dollar might explore strategies that leverage CAD strength, such as hedging US dollar exposure or investing in Canadian assets sensitive to commodity prices.
Effective risk management remains crucial. Diversification and close attention to central bank statements, oil market developments, and trade news will be essential for navigating market fluctuations. Adopting a flexible approach that adapts to evolving data, rather than making large directional bets, is likely to better serve long-term investment goals.
Is USD/CAD returning to its prior downward channel?
The recent weakness in the US dollar suggests a potential return to the late June to mid-July downtrend if current momentum continues.
What risks could impact USD/CAD trajectory?
Trade tensions related to the USMCA, geopolitical shocks in the energy sector, and differing monetary policies between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada present notable risks of upward movement for the pair.
How do central bank interest rate expectations affect the USD/CAD outlook?
A potentially cautious Bank of Canada alongside a hawkish Federal Reserve could limit severe downside losses for USD/CAD.
Climbing Yields and Geopolitical Risk Keep Pressure on Silver To the upside, the market did reach the $63 region at one point a couple of weeks back. That has been a bit of a swing high. The 50-day EMA is racing towards that area and offering a potential ceiling as well. If the market were to attack that indicator, it would be a significant shift in momentum, probably fueled by risk-taking behavior around the world, not just here in the silver market.
Right now, the uncertainty in the Middle East continues to drive inflation expectations higher, driving rates higher, which consequently will typically work against the value of silver. This has been the case for some time now, and that correlation will be something that a lot of people will be watching.
EUR/USD trades around 1.1385 on Thursday after the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key interest rates unchanged, in line with market expectations. Following its July policy meeting, the central bank kept the main refinancing rate at 2.4%, the marginal lending facility rate at 2.65% and the deposit facility rate at 2.25%.
In its policy statement, the ECB said that the outlook for energy prices remains highly volatile and that the full inflationary impact of the recent energy shock has yet to materialize. The central bank reiterated that monetary policy decisions will continue to be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis, guided by incoming economic data, the inflation outlook and the strength of monetary policy transmission. The ECB also stressed that it is not pre-committing to any particular interest rate path.
Despite the policy hold, the Euro (EUR) remains under pressure against the US Dollar (USD). The Greenback is benefiting from renewed safe-haven demand following a fresh escalation in geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The United States (US) carried out strikes against Iran for the twelfth consecutive night, while Tehran retaliated by targeting US military bases in Jordan and Bahrain.
Tensions have also intensified in energy markets. After disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, attacks by Yemen's Houthis on two Saudi Oil tankers in the Red Sea are now threatening traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Against this backdrop, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Oil trades around $89.50 per barrel, up roughly 28% so far this month.
The sharp rise in energy prices is adding to inflation concerns in the United States and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to tighten monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are now pricing a 78% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting, up from 52% one week ago.
The US Dollar is also drawing support from comments by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who warned that military strikes against Iran could intensify as long as Tehran refuses to negotiate, while also urging the Houthis to halt their attacks. This heightened geopolitical uncertainty continues to support safe-haven flows into the Greenback, limiting EUR/USD's ability to recover.
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.24%0.21%0.26%-0.04%0.21%0.63%0.28%EUR-0.24%-0.02%0.04%-0.30%-0.03%0.40%0.04%GBP-0.21%0.02%0.04%-0.28%-0.02%0.42%0.06%JPY-0.26%-0.04%-0.04%-0.31%-0.07%0.35%0.00%CAD0.04%0.30%0.28%0.31%0.24%0.67%0.32%AUD-0.21%0.03%0.02%0.07%-0.24%0.44%0.09%NZD-0.63%-0.40%-0.42%-0.35%-0.67%-0.44%-0.37%CHF-0.28%-0.04%-0.06%-0.00%-0.32%-0.09%0.37% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Analysts at UBS remain bullish on the price of gold in 2026-2027 despite recent weakness, arguing that the latest correction offers investors an opportunity to add exposure rather than abandon the precious metal.
The bank forecasts the gold price rising from around $4,000 per ounce today to $5,200 by June 2027, even as higher oil prices and expectations for elevated US interest rates create near-term headwinds.
The price of Gold in US Dollars (XAU/USD) traded close to $4,090 on Thursday after recovering modestly from recent lows, having fallen sharply from February's record highs above $5,500.
Image: Gold price in USD - 6 month chart The six-month chart highlights the scale of gold's correction from February's record highs above $5,500, with prices now consolidating around the $4,000 level that UBS believes should provide a solid long-term base.
UBS says renewed tensions in the Middle East have created a more difficult backdrop for gold than many investors expected.
"Re-escalating military tensions in the Middle East and higher oil prices are creating renewed headwinds for gold."
The bank believes stronger oil prices could keep US inflation elevated, encouraging markets to price in higher interest rates for longer and reducing demand for non-yielding assets.
However, UBS argues that these pressures are likely to prove temporary.
"We view pullbacks in gold to USD 3,850/oz as opportunities to add exposure, rather than reasons to turn more bearish."
The bank says the key to a sustained recovery will be renewed investment demand alongside continued buying by central banks.
"Sustained investment and central bank demand... are necessary to justify a gold price above USD 4,000/oz."
UBS expects official-sector purchases to remain exceptionally strong, forecasting central banks will buy 750-1,000 tonnes of gold this year as reserve managers continue diversifying away from US Dollar assets.
"We expect central bank purchases to remain elevated."
While those purchases should help stabilise prices, UBS says they are unlikely to drive another rally on their own without stronger investor inflows.
Image: Price of gold in USD - 2 day historical chart Gold has stabilised around the $4,090 level after recent selling pressure, with UBS viewing any further weakness towards $3,850 as a buying opportunity rather than a signal to exit positions.
UBS remains firmly constructive on the medium-term outlook despite expecting further volatility over the coming months.
The bank forecasts gold at $4,400 by September, $4,600 by the end of 2026, $5,000 by March 2027 and $5,200 by June 2027.
"Near-term demand challenges are primarily driven by lacklustre investment demand."
Nevertheless, UBS believes that once concerns over US interest rates begin to ease and investment demand returns, gold should resume its longer-term uptrend.
Gold (XAU/USD) trades lower on Thursday, snapping a four-day rally. Price action is exploring levels below $4,100 at the time of writing, following a rejection at $4,165 on Wednesday as the surge in Oil prices, with the Brent barrel trading above $90.00, has reactivated concerns about higher inflationary risks, sending US Treasury yields to fresh highs, and posing a heavy weight for precious metals
Analysts at TD see the recent Gold recovery as a corrective reaction, likely to be short-lived, as the move "does not seem to be an aggressive extension of long positions, but is rather driven by short covering and dip buying, after technical supports held during the preceding selloff."
Looking ahead, TD Securities experts observe that "there are no fundamental reasons to think that the US rate and FX environment will be conducive to increasing long gold exposure any time soon." In their view, "it is likely that the Middle East war-driven oil price increases will continue to increase the probability of a Fed rate hike," limiting the scope for a more durable upside extension for Gold.
Technical Analysis: Momentum indicators show bearish signals
XAU/USD trades at $4,087.60, holding a constructive near-term bias although the 4-hour Relative Strength Index is nearing the 50 midline, which, together with the bearish cross of the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line, suggests that bulls have given up and sellers are taking back control.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the reverse trendline now around $4,005, followed by the year-to-date lows at the $3,940 area. Furhter down, the late October 2025 low just below $3,900 emerges as the next target. Rallies, on the other hand, are expected to meet significant resistance at the $4,200 area, where bulls were capped in late June and early July. This area needs to give way to confirm a deeper recovery, aiming for mid-June highs at the $4,385 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Gold (XAU/USD) loses ground on Thursday, snapping a four-day winning streak as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds, while Oil prices extend their gains on rising tensions in the Middle East. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,090 after hitting a two-week high of $4,165 on Wednesday.
The United States (US) carried out strikes against Iran for the twelfth consecutive night, while Tehran retaliated by targeting US military bases in Jordan and Bahrain.
Oil supply disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have now spread to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after Yemen’s Houthis attacked two Saudi Oil tankers in the Red Sea.
The latest flare-up pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude to its highest level since June 11, trading near $89.50 per barrel at the time of writing, up around 28% so far this month.
The rise in energy costs is adding to inflation concerns and strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates later this year.
Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of a Fed rate hike at the September meeting, with the odds standing at 78%, up from 52% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
As a result, traders appear reluctant to build aggressive bullish positions in Gold, which continues to face headwinds from hawkish Fed expectations, a broadly stronger US Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields.
The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield trades around 4.64%, its highest level since May 20. Higher yields tend to weigh on Gold by increasing the appeal of interest-bearing assets.
TD Securities warns that "the higher rate environment suggests that the yellow metal may again be destined to drop back to support at around $3,900/oz, before any new highs occur some twelve months from now."
Technical analysis: $4,200 remains the key hurdle
On the daily chart, XAU/USD holds above the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,070 but stays below the 50-day and 100-day SMAs, leaving the near-term outlook neutral.
The nearby horizontal barrier at $4,200 reinforces this overhead supply, suggesting that bulls need a decisive push through this cluster to regain clearer control.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 47 stays near its midline, hinting at balanced momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, which modestly favors consolidation with a slight upside tilt rather than outright trend.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the horizontal level of $4,200, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,242. A daily close above these would open the way toward the next hurdle at $4,400 and the longer-term cap at the 100-day SMA near $4,490.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the short-term floor around the 21-day SMA at $4,070, followed by the psychological $4,000 mark. A break below this latter level would expose deeper retracement risk despite the current neutral bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
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After gaining over 1% past month, the British pound dropped 0.5% against the euro due to cooling UK inflation and wage growth Lowering expectations for Bank of England rate hikes narrowed the yield gap between the pound and euro, triggering recent short-term profit-taking Anticipation of a hawkish policy stance from the European Central Bank provided additional underlying support for the euro against the British pound The British pound saw a significant monthly increase against the euro, rising over 1% to reach levels near 1.1800, last seen in mid-July. However, the pound has since given back some of these gains, falling about 0.5% in the last five trading days and moving back towards 1.1715. Understanding these movements offers valuable insight for market participants.
The Month’s Rally Explained Two central banks did most of the heavy lifting here. In the Eurozone, June inflation cooled to 2.8%, reducing the likelihood of further interest rate hikes from the European Central Bank following their June increase to a 2.25% deposit rate.
Additionally, a more stable political environment in the UK under new leadership has boosted market sentiment and lessened previous concerns that had impacted the pound. Andy Burnham’s uncontested succession brought an end to the nation’s political uncertainty. This removed a risk premium previously built into the currency.
Why the Pound Lost Its Grip The UK’s latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed headline inflation slowing to 2.6% year-over-year in June, below market expectations of 2.7%. While core CPI held steady at 2.6%, the slower headline figures, combined with slowing wage growth, tempered investor expectations for immediate rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE).
As the British pound struggled for direction, the euro gained support. Investors were positioning themselves ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy announcement. Expectations that ECB policymakers would maintain a hawkish stance helped the single currency stay resilient.
What This Means Going Forward Looking ahead, the immediate focus will be on the ECB’s decision today and the BoE’s meeting on July 30. If the ECB maintains its current stance and suggests a potential September hike, it may not significantly affect the pound.
The BoE meeting, however, carries more weight. With a new Monetary Policy Report, the outcome could range from a cautious approach to signals of a potential rate increase, particularly as the number of dissenting votes favoring tighter policy has increased.
For the UK, slowing inflation combined with stable growth metrics suggests the BoE can prioritize economic stability without resorting to aggressive easing measures. This scenario could indicate confidence in the pound’s underlying strength, bolstered by the credibility of domestic policy.
In the Eurozone, persistent challenges related to energy costs and subdued growth forecasts highlight potential weaknesses, even with the ECB’s stated commitment to its 2% inflation target. The euro’s current softness relative to the pound may reflect investor preference for sterling, although both currencies face external pressures from global economic trends.
How Investors Might Position With two significant central bank meetings occurring closely together, this period presents heightened uncertainty for investors, making substantial directional bets less advisable. Those with substantial sterling transactions or exposure due in the next two weeks should account for this increased event risk.
For investors with a longer-term perspective, the current trends, including a more cautious ECB and a BoE possibly moving towards tightening policy, may continue to favor the pound. However, that view should be held loosely until both decisions land.
What key economic data release caused the pound to lose momentum against the euro over the last five sessions?
Softer UK headline inflation of 2.6% and cooling wage growth lowered market expectations for imminent Bank of England rate hikes.
How has the ECB’s upcoming policy announcement influenced the euro’s performance against the Sterling?
Anticipation of a hawkish rate hold by the European Central Bank provided support for the euro against the pound.
How should investors approach GBP/EUR right now?
Investors should avoid large directional bets until both central bank decisions land; the medium-term uptrend looks intact but near-term volatility is elevated.
EUR/USD rose to 1.1429 on Thursday, with the US dollar continuing its moderate decline from the previous session. The market is assessing rising inflation risks driven by elevated energy prices against a backdrop of weakening economic data, while seeking further signals on Federal Reserve policy.
At next week’s meeting, the regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, uncertainty about future decisions has increased due to the lack of clear guidance from the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Dollar declines are being limited by persistent demand for safe-haven assets. Tensions remain high in the Middle East, with Donald Trump stating that the US will strike Iranian infrastructure in response to attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has threatened retaliation against energy and infrastructure facilities in the region.
Additional concerns have been raised by attacks on tankers in the Red Sea – the first such incidents since late February. Markets are worried about the potential expansion of the conflict and new disruptions to global trade.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1410 level, currently extending down to 1.1405 and up to 1.1434. This consolidation range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1500, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1260. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1434 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1420, and then a continuation of the downward trend to 1.1370. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion EUR/USD has recovered modestly as the dollar softened amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a lack of clear guidance from the Federal Reserve. Rising energy prices and tensions in the Middle East – including threats of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and renewed attacks in the Red Sea – continue to fuel inflation concerns and risk-off sentiment. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady next week, while the outlook beyond that remains uncertain. Technically, the pair may see a temporary corrective move towards 1.1500, but the broader bearish structure remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term. The direction will largely depend on geopolitical developments and any future signals from the Fed.
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EUR/USD rose to 1.1429 on Thursday, with the US dollar continuing its moderate decline from the previous session. The market is assessing rising inflation risks driven by elevated energy prices against a backdrop of weakening economic data, while seeking further signals on Federal Reserve policy.
At next week's meeting, the regulator is expected to keep rates unchanged. However, uncertainty about future decisions has increased due to the lack of clear guidance from the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh.
Dollar declines are being limited by persistent demand for safe-haven assets. Tensions remain high in the Middle East, with Donald Trump stating that the US will strike Iranian infrastructure in response to attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran has threatened retaliation against energy and infrastructure facilities in the region.
Additional concerns have been raised by attacks on tankers in the Red Sea – the first such incidents since late February. Markets are worried about the potential expansion of the conflict and new disruptions to global trade.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around the 1.1410 level, currently extending down to 1.1405 and up to 1.1434. This consolidation range is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1500, followed by a decline to 1.1260. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move to 1.1260. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing firmly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to the 1.1434 level. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. Today, a move lower to 1.1400 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1420, and then a continuation of the downward trend to 1.1370. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 80 and pointing downwards towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionEUR/USD has recovered modestly as the dollar softened amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty and a lack of clear guidance from the Federal Reserve. Rising energy prices and tensions in the Middle East – including threats of strikes on Iranian infrastructure and renewed attacks in the Red Sea – continue to fuel inflation concerns and risk-off sentiment. Markets expect the Fed to hold rates steady next week, while the outlook beyond that remains uncertain. Technically, the pair may see a temporary corrective move towards 1.1500, but the broader bearish structure remains intact, with downside potential towards 1.1260 in the medium term. The direction will largely depend on geopolitical developments and any future signals from the Fed.
The Euro (EUR) is giving away previous gains against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, as investors position for the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy decision. The EUR/JPY pair, however, remains positive in daily charts, trading at the highest levels in nearly three months, with dips contained above previous highs at the 186.30 area.
Markets are focusing on the ECB's monetary policy decision, due later on the day. The bank is widely expected to leave its benchmark Rate on Deposit Facility at the current 2.25%, and leave the door open for further monetary tightening, as the recent rally in Oil prices points to higher inflationary pressures in the near-term.
The Yen, on the other hand, remains broadly offered with the wide divergence between the Bank of Japan and the rest of the major central banks’ monetary policies acting as headwinds for JPY rallies. Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that the BoJ is ready to accelerate its monetary normalisation cycle, although investors have remained sceptical.
Technical Analysis: Correcting lower from overbought levels
EUR/JPY trades at 186.44 with the bullish bias intact as the pair corrects lower after reaching overbought territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) at 65 sits within bullish levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly positive, hinting that upside momentum is still constructive.
Bearish attempts remain contained at the mid-June highs in the 186.30 area, closing the path towards last week's highs at the 186.00 area and Tuesday's lows at 185.78. On the topside, initial resistance appears at the intraday highs of 186.65, which is also the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the June 21-22 rally. Further up, the area between the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the mentioned cycle at 187.44 and the April 30 high, at 187.55, emerges as the next target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.00%0.02%0.13%-0.05%-0.03%0.31%0.04%EUR0.00%0.03%0.15%-0.05%-0.02%0.36%0.04%GBP-0.02%-0.03%0.11%-0.09%-0.06%0.32%0.01%JPY-0.13%-0.15%-0.11%-0.20%-0.17%0.17%-0.11%CAD0.05%0.05%0.09%0.20%0.02%0.37%0.08%AUD0.03%0.02%0.06%0.17%-0.02%0.37%0.09%NZD-0.31%-0.36%-0.32%-0.17%-0.37%-0.37%-0.30%CHF-0.04%-0.04%-0.01%0.11%-0.08%-0.09%0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
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The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $58.84 per troy ounce, down 1.67% from the $59.83 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 17.23% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.54 on Thursday, up from 69.03 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
As we all know, the Iran war is severely restricting the flow of Crude Oil through the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi Arabia started to send more tankers out via the Red Sea, but now, we have a completely different set of problems in the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which is driving crude even higher.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on EURNZD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, AUDNZD, AUDCAD, Silver, XAGUSD, Gold, XAUUSD, WTI, and Brent Crude Oil.
So, the question for traders is, “when can we go short on WTI and Brent CFDs and watch price action fall to normal levels?”
There is no easy answer to this question, but the current US administration is under enormous pressure to end the war, but that may mean nothing in the short term.
This has caused more geopolitical uncertainty, and investors tested the $4,000 level of support on gold, with price heading up past $4,100 this week.
Silver followed gold, as it has been doing for months.
On the technical side, price action has broken through the upper trend line that we have been following for months.
On the weekly charts, we see falling wedges, which are almost always bullish patterns.
But keep in mind, these are weekly charts, so this may take a long time to play out.
This morning we saw Australian Employment Figures way higher than analysts’ expectations, and look what happened.
If we follow the rules of the News Catalyst Fade, we want to trade with the trend or within the range.
We note that in almost every case, the news drove price action WITH the trade buy; we can still look for reversals on other time frames.
We will keep an eye on AUDUSD, for example, where price is at a key level of resistance.
Also on AUDNZD, we see price at a key level with an overbought stochastic oscillator.
And, on AUDCAD, we see a strong ranging market with price at an upper trend line and an overbought stochastic oscillator.
Please feel free to check all other AUD pairs.
We see that NZD has been the strongest currency this month, but we also see that this may be changing.
For example, on NZDUSD, we see a pullback through the lower trend line, but we also see a falling wedge and an oversold stochastic oscillator.
Inflation in New Zealand is not under control, so we will keep an eye on all NZD pairs.
On EURNZD, we see the pullback as well, but with price action forming a rising wedge, and we will keep an eye on this as well.
And tomorrow’s ECB Interest Rate decision, so keep an eye on these and all EUR pairs.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
The US dollar remains firm near 101, USD/JPY is testing new yearly highs above 163, and Treasury yields have returned toward their yearly highs. Together, these factors continue to outweigh the latest rebound in precious metals, which still requires further technical confirmation before supporting a sustainable long-term bullish outlook.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market expectations for a September rate hike have risen above 55%.
Crude oil’s recovery toward $90 per barrel, combined with persistent inflation risks across the second-half 2026 outlook, is keeping the threat of further monetary tightening elevated. As a result:
The DXY continues to hold above 100 USD/JPY remains above 163, near multi-decade highs The rebound across precious metals remains unconfirmed Risk assets continue to consolidate, with Bitcoin near yearly lows and US indices near all-time highs
Regarding when gold’s long-term bullish outlook may resume and what a possible resolution to the current conflict could look like, I recently published an article comparing the outcome of the 1973 oil embargo with the 2026 Strait of Hormuz transit crisis.
The comparison helps reduce short-term market noise and highlights potential historical patterns that may be repeating in the current environment.
While the framework for governing and securing the Strait of Hormuz remains unclear, the timing of any major shift—either higher or lower—can potentially be identified through price action in crude oil and correlated assets.
These include USD/JPY, which is trading near levels last seen in 1980, and gold, which is testing a one-year ascending resistance trendline that has now turned into potential support.
USDJPY Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
The weekly USD/JPY chart reflects two well-respected ascending channels.
The first has guided price action between April 2025 and April 2026, while the second represents the broader bullish structure that has been in place since 2022.
Price is now attempting to break above the midpoints of both channels. This creates a critical confluence zone that could open the way toward the Fibonacci extensions of the February-April-May 2026 cycle.
The 163.50 level is positioned near the 100% Fibonacci extension, followed by:
165: 127.2% Fibonacci extension 168: 161.8% Fibonacci extension 170: Upper boundary of the shorter-term channel, where pullback risk may increase 180: The next major upside zone if the 170 resistance fails to contain the advance, aligning with the broader 2022-2026 channel USD/JPY Bullish Scenario
The steep upside scenario remains valid as long as the DXY stays firm above the 100.30 zone.
The bullish structure also depends on whether intervention in Japanese markets remains less influential than the impact of yield differentials and geopolitical risk.
As long as US Treasury yields remain elevated relative to Japanese yields, and the dollar continues to attract safe-haven demand, USD/JPY may retain its bullish bias.
USD/JPY Bearish Scenario
On the downside, a break below 162.50, 161.30, and 160.50 would place several previous resistance levels—now acting as potential support—under pressure.
A sustained decline through these levels would expose the lower boundary of the ascending channel near 158.
That area could generate another rebound within the broader bullish trend that has been in place since April 2025. However, a confirmed break below the channel would weaken the bullish bias, particularly if accompanied by a broader decline in the US dollar below 100.30-99.30.
Gold Price Outlook: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
From a six-month perspective, gold is testing one of its most significant historical confluence zones.
Price is attempting to break below the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. A close below 3,930 would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 3,500-3,460, a zone that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025. Gold is also testing the long-term trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 2016 and 2025. This former resistance trendline has now turned into a key long-term support level, reinforcing the importance of the current technical confluence. Whether gold sustains its rebound from this area or extends its correction will likely depend on developments in crude oil and, more importantly, the evolving US-Iran-Strait of Hormuz conflict.
A stronger recovery would require gold to reclaim the 4,200-4,300 zone, which is examined in greater detail on the daily chart below.
A sustained geopolitical resolution could help stabilize inflation expectations, bond yields, and broader market sentiment, supporting a recovery in precious metals. Conversely, a prolonged escalation would likely reinforce inflation concerns, keep Treasury yields elevated, strengthen the US dollar, and increase downside risks for gold.
Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: Trading view
Despite the strength of the high-time-frame support zone and the latest rebounds across gold and silver, price action remains below the descending trendline connecting the lower highs recorded since March 2026.
As a result, the broader short-term bias remains bearish.
The current rebound also remains fragile while gold tests the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-July decline.
Gold Bullish Scenario
A sustained recovery above 4,160 and 4,200 would shift attention toward the following resistance levels:
4,300: 38.2% Fibonacci retracement 4,420: 50% Fibonacci retracement A break above 4,420 would signal a more meaningful shift back toward a bullish trend and would strengthen the case for a broader recovery in precious metals.
Gold Bearish Scenario
On the downside, a decline back below the 4,020-3,960 zone would reactivate the bearish scenario.
The first major support would stand near 3,880, which corresponds with the October 2025 low. A confirmed break below that level could extend the decline toward the next major confluence zone near 3,460, where another significant reversal opportunity could emerge. As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to stay elevated.
Geopolitical developments, Treasury yields, inflation expectations, and the direction of the Strait of Hormuz conflict will continue to shape the broader macroeconomic outlook.
The AUD/USD is seeing a cap on its medium-term uptrend move as geopolitical tensions escalate further along the Strait of Hormuz. Current Setup and Live Chart Regarding AUD/USD performance this week, the balance of risks is tilted toward modest weakness, with volatility likely to stay elevated due to market responses to Middle East geopolitical activity and US monetary policy expectations.
Currently, the AUD/USD is trading within a regime of risk sentiment vs safe-haven demand. The AUD currently benefits from resilient commodity exports, backed by the potential for more accommodative Chinese policy support. However, a strong US Dollar and elevated US Treasury yields have overpowered the AUD’s support channels and have put the pair under pressure.
The geopolitical climate is currently in an escalatory phase, which continues to drive safe-haven demand for the greenback at the expense of risk-associated commodity currencies such as the Aussie Dollar. On the other hand, investor sentiment and any positive stimulus developments from China will be the factors the AUD will look to for support. However, the market’s bias is currently for capital preservation via the flight to safety, even as oil prices continue to rise.
AUD/USD Macro Drivers 1) Bullish USD Sentiment
Despite last week’s U.S. inflation data showing a cooling of inflationary pressures in June, the U.S. dollar continues to retain broad-based strength, driving bond yields higher and generating safe-haven demand. The greenback is gaining support from continued expectations of caution on the part of the Federal Reserve in easing rates. Additional support also comes from stronger demand for U.S. government bonds as well as safe-haven flows. The market perception is that the U.S. economy remains resilient and robust, and these factors are expected to cap further rallies in AUD/USD in the near term.
2) China’s Economic Outlook
Australia’s robust export base, as well as the relative stability in commodity prices for gold, copper, natural gas, and iron ore, have helped to boost the country’s terms of trade and have formed a slight cushion against the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Although this supportive metric has been overwhelmed by safe-haven demand for the greenback, it still offers partial support for the Aussie dollar, limiting the downside potential of the pair.
3) Commodity Prices
Australia’s robust export base, as well as the relative stability in commodity prices for gold, copper, natural gas, and iron ore, have helped to boost the country’s terms of trade and have formed a slight cushion against the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. Although this supportive metric has been overwhelmed by safe-haven demand for the greenback, it still offers partial support for the Aussie dollar, limiting the downside potential of the pair.
Price Catalysts for the AUD/USD 1) US economic data and Federal Reserve expectations
This is a key price catalyst for the AUD/USD. Data around US inflation and employment change (NFP) are critical in shaping the Fed rate expectations. Strong US data leads to a rise in US Treasury yields, which promotes a “higher for longer” Fed policy expectation.
2) Chinese and Australian economic releases: Australian employment change came in at 76.3K, which beat the consensus of 16.4K. The prior number was also revised upwards to 44.0K. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.4%. The robust outlook for the Australian labor market following this data provides for a near-term counter to the US Dollar’s strength, but the medium-term outlook stays in favor of the greenback. Of greater importance to the AUD’s outlook is the Chinese data set that comprises the
Chinese PMIs, industrial production, retail sales, and PBoC policy announcements. These Chinese data are considered critical to Australia’s export outlook.
3) Global risk sentiment: The AUD/USD is highly sensitive to risk sentiment. The Aussie Dollar is favored in risk-on market scenarios, while the US Dollar benefits from safe-haven demand. The current geopolitical tensions around the US-Iran conflict are a risk-averse situation: they promote a flight to safety into the USD. They are negative for both China and the Australian economy. De-escalation promotes risk-seeking sentiment, which is supportive of the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD Forecast Scenarios Base case: neutral to mildly bearish due to the current balance between upbeat Australian employment data to counteract the current US Dollar strength, which is coming from higher US Treasury yields.
Bull case: softer US data and a decline in Treasury yields from the US end, boosted by stronger-than-expected Chinese stimulus measures and an improved environment for risk appetite, will cause commodity currencies such as the AUD to outperform while leading to weakness on the US Dollar.
Bear case: geopolitical escalation that leads to more flight to safety, stronger-than-expected US economic data, and a further rise in Treasury yields will boost the greenback. If there is no support from Chinese economic data, the AUD will be offered, creating a situation where the pair will slide below current support levels.
AUD/USD Technical Outlook Price remains in a medium-term uptrend. However, the latest round of USD strength has kept the pair range-bound, with the 0.7130 resistance and prior highs of 15 August 2022 and 30 January 2023 acting as the upper boundary. The 19 June 2023/16 September 2024 price highs at 0.6886 form the lower boundary.
Fig 1: AUD/USD weekly chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 23 July 2026) The bulls need to uncap the upper boundary at 0.7130 to clear a path to the May 2026 high at 0.7276. Beyond this barrier, the next resistance comes in at the November 2021/March 2022 high at 0.7547.
On the flip side, a breakdown of the 0.6886 support unlocks access to downside targets at 0.6796, followed by 0.6596 if the retracement is more extensive. Below this price mark, which is formed by the low of 15 December 2025, a further pivot that holds the lows of May-November 2025 is showcased at 0.6410.
TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes that Gold has rebounded on dip buying and short covering after key technical support held, with prices near $4,150/oz. He highlights that Middle East tensions and central bank reserve diversification are supporting the metal, but warns that rising Oil prices, higher Fed hike probabilities and stronger yields should limit upside and keep resistance around $4,200/oz intact.
Dip buying meets rate headwinds"Gold jumped 3.5% from Tuesday's lows to trade at around $4,150/oz at the time of writing. This rally does not seem to be an aggressive extension of long positions, but is rather driven by short covering and dip buying, after technical supports held during the preceding selloff."
"Gold rallied on dip-buying as key technical support held amid Middle East tensions, with traders increasingly discounting the risk that higher energy prices will prompt the Fed to raise rates this year. Surprisingly, this was occurring as the market was pricing a higher probability of a Fed hike in September."
"There are no fundamental reasons to think that the U.S. rate and FX environment will be conducive to increasing long gold exposure any time soon. Indeed, it is likely that the Middle East war-driven oil price increases will continue to increase the probability of a Fed rate hike."
"This will likely make it hard for price to break through $4,200/oz resistance. In fact, the higher rate environment suggests that the yellow metal may again be destined to drop back to support at around $3,900/oz, before any new highs occur some twelve months from now."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
USD/ZAR entered a three-day losing streak after failing to breach key technical resistance at 16.60, a solid barrier since mid-May Persistent weakness in the US dollar cross could push USD/ZAR down toward the 16.20 support zone during upcoming central bank updates High domestic interest rates, political stability under a coalition government, and strong precious metal exports have driven the rand's 6% year-to-date gain The USD/ZAR currency pair has seen a three-day decline, failing to break through the significant 16.60 resistance level that has been in place since mid-May. This is occurring even as the US dollar shows general strength against other major currencies, indicating a notable resilience from the South African rand. The rand’s performance has contributed to a year-to-date depreciation of the USD/ZAR pair by over 6%.
This dynamic invites closer examination of the underlying forces at play. What is driving the pair’s current momentum, and what broader signals does it convey about the economies involved? Looking ahead, investors must consider both near-term and medium-term prospects to inform their positioning.
What Is Driving the Rand’s Outperformance? The rand’s current strength stems from a blend of domestic political stability, appealing yield differences, and strong commodity exports. In May, South Africa’s Reserve Bank surprised markets, hiking rates for the first time in three years. After a split vote, it pushed the repo rate to 7.00%.
That wasn’t a random decision. June’s inflation hit a two-year high of 5.0%, hotter than the 4.7% economists had penciled in. Many analysts now expect a second consecutive hike this week. Higher South African rates make the rand more appealing to carry traders seeking yield, propping up the currency even with soft domestic growth.
Globally, expectations for potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, influenced by softening labor market data and moderating inflation, have reduced upward pressure on the US dollar. While the dollar remains a key safe-haven asset, its recent trend has moderated, allowing currencies from emerging markets with higher yields, such as the rand, to perform better.
The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate range at 3.50%–3.75% in its June meeting. Although the projected rate path still suggests one more increase this year, a weaker-than-expected June jobs report of only 57,000 new positions has tempered expectations of aggressive rate hikes.
Firmer gold prices also boost the rand. South Africa benefits directly from strong worldwide demand and favorable prices for precious metals, especially gold and platinum group metals. Healthy export revenues have helped shore up the national trade balance and brought in steady foreign currency.
Near-Term and Medium-Term Outlook Looking ahead, the South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) upcoming policy decision this week is a key factor in the near term. A further 25-basis-point rate increase would likely sustain rand support and keep USD/ZAR below 16.60 until the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. Any indications from the Fed signaling potential rate cuts could lead to a downward revision for USD/ZAR, potentially testing the 16.20 support level.
Over the medium term, the pair’s trajectory will depend heavily on global risk appetite and commodity demand. If South Africa successfully implements structural reforms in its energy and logistics sectors and global central banks begin to ease monetary policy, the rand may continue to appreciate.
What has driven USD/ZAR’s recent losing streak?
Strong rand performance from commodity exports, SARB policy, and moderating US dollar strength have kept the pair below 16.60 resistance.
What domestic monetary factor attracts global investors to the South African rand?
Elevated interest rates set by the South African Reserve Bank offer an attractive carry trade yield for foreign investors.
What triggered the SARB’s first rate hike in three years?
Inflation accelerated to a two-year high of 5.0% in June, prompting policymakers to hike rates to protect price stability and currency credibility.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) extends losses for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, with the NZD/USD pair dipping below 0.5800, after being rejected at the 0.5875 area earlier in the week. The Kiwi Dollar is giving away previous gains as higher Oil prices and concerns about the escalation of the Middle East conflict have offset the positive impact of the hawkish Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) monetary policy stance.
The dismal market mood is finally taking a toll on the risk-sensitive Kiwi, as tensions in the Middle East remain high and reports of attacks on vessels sailing through the Red Sea raise concerns that the conflict might extend through the region, boosting fears of disruptions in Oil supply.
Against this background, the barrel of Brent Oil has crossed the $90 line for the first time in the last six weeks. This has prompted investors to shift their focus from inflation to the negative impact on economic growth of another energy shock, which will, ultimately, limit the central bank’s margin to tighten its monetary policy.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at the 0.5750 area
NZD/USD trades just below 0.5800, with bears gathering pace as intraday momentum indicators tread further within negative territory. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) has retreated to 35, approaching oversold levels, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains slightly negative, altogether hinting at waning downside momentum but not yet at a clear reversal.
The pair might find some support at previous resistance around 0.5790 (July 10, 13 highs), although the key support area lies at the confluence of the immediate trendline support and the July 13 low, in the area of 0.5750. A confirmation below here would put bears in control, and bring the July 6 and 8 lows, around 0.5675, into focus.
Upside attempts, on the contrary, have been contained below 0.5825 on Thursday, while the key resistance area is in the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the June selloff, at 0.5855, and Tuesday's high, at the mentioned 0.5875, which has capped bulls several times during the current month.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%0.02%0.11%-0.13%-0.08%0.26%0.05%EUR0.08%0.11%0.21%-0.05%0.00%0.36%0.13%GBP-0.02%-0.11%0.11%-0.17%-0.11%0.25%0.02%JPY-0.11%-0.21%-0.11%-0.25%-0.20%0.13%-0.08%CAD0.13%0.05%0.17%0.25%0.04%0.39%0.16%AUD0.08%-0.00%0.11%0.20%-0.04%0.36%0.16%NZD-0.26%-0.36%-0.25%-0.13%-0.39%-0.36%-0.24%CHF-0.05%-0.13%-0.02%0.08%-0.16%-0.16%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Wednesday as softer UK inflation was offset by resilient core price growth, while escalating geopolitical tensions supported demand for the US Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3372, little changed from Wednesday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.337154 (-0.05%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.141084 (+0.08%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.14385 (-0.03%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) held its ground on Wednesday following the release of the UK's latest inflation figures.
Data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed headline CPI eased from 2.8% to 2.6% in June, below forecasts for a reading of 2.7% and marking the slowest pace of price growth since March 2025.
The softer-than-expected inflation reading had the potential to weigh on Sterling by reinforcing expectations that the more dovish members of the Bank of England (BoE) could resist further policy tightening later this year.
However, pressure on the Pound remained limited. A stickier core inflation reading provided support, while analysts noted that renewed conflict in the Gulf is already pushing energy prices higher, potentially limiting the recent slowdown in inflation.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) regained some bullish momentum as escalating tensions around the Strait of Hormuz triggered a fresh wave of risk aversion across global markets.
Intensifying hostilities and increasing disruption to shipping through the strategically important waterway pushed Brent crude back above US$94 a barrel, renewing concerns over global energy supplies and boosting demand for traditional safe-haven assets.
The rise in oil prices also reinforced expectations that higher energy costs could feed through into US inflation, supporting the case for further Federal Reserve policy tightening in the months ahead.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fiscal Uncertainty Under Burnham to Dampen Sterling? Looking ahead, Thursday brings a brief lull in the UK economic calendar, leaving political developments as the likely driver of the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate.
The ongoing reaction in the UK gilt market to Andy Burnham's first days in office could leave Sterling under pressure if investors remain concerned about the government's spending plans and how they will be funded.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar may face modest pressure if the latest US initial jobless claims report shows an increase in new unemployment claims.
AUDUSD (Australian dollar) finds psychological support
The AUDUSD (Australian dollar) hopes to stop the reversal after finding crucial support at the 0.7000 zone.
Overall, the pair remains bullish to hit a higher high if prices remain above the said support. The RSI’s move to the neutral area triggered the bearish move, which could continue towards 0.6940. Bulls will need to clear 0.7060 before they can hope for a meaningful rebound.
USOIL hits another high
Crude is on the charge after Middle East tensions continue to dominate the headlines.
A series of fresh highs sees bulls remain in control as whispers of the 90.00 level look to be tested soon. On the downside, 86.00 is the first target and bears could look to double down on their positions if prices begin to creep lower. For now, a slight pullback ensues as the black gold awaits the next signal. NAS 100 tech sell-off continues
The Nasdaq looks to take a breather as the bear rally continues.
The index came across some buying interest as tech stocks hope for a fight back. Profit-taking could drive the price lower as there are signs of liquidation. Overall sentiment remains bearish, and trend followers look eager to jump in for another fresh low towards 28200. 29400 is the closest resistance, and 30000 is the obstacle to lift.
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ECB to leave rates but could pave the way to a September hike The ECB will announce its rate decision today at 12:15 GMT. The central bank is expected to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% after raising rates by 25 basis points in June, as policymakers assess the implications of the renewed U.S.-Iran conflict.
The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran following June's ECB meeting sent oil prices sharply lower, helping ease inflationary pressures. However, the collapse of that ceasefire and the renewed hostilities have pushed oil back above $95 a barrel, reviving concerns over inflation and increasing the likelihood of further policy tightening.
That puts the focus firmly on ECB President Christine Lagarde's press conference. She is expected to reiterate that the ECB remains data dependent and will continue to take decisions one meeting at a time. However, investors will also be looking for any hints that another rate hike could come as early as September.
The market is currently pricing in around 41 basis points of additional tightening this year, with the deposit rate expected to reach 2.77% by March 2027.
However, the U.S. dollar is also finding support from safe-haven demand as the Middle East conflict deepens. Higher oil prices are fuelling inflation concerns, lifting Treasury yields ahead of next week's FOMC meeting.
As a result, even a hawkish hold from the ECB may struggle to generate a sustained rally in the euro towards 1.1500.
EUR/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD continues to trade within a descending channel dating back to mid-April.
The pair found support at the 2026 low of 1.1325 and has staged a modest recovery, although it continues to struggle around the 1.1400–1.1450 resistance zone.
Buyers would need to break above this area to move out of the falling channel and bring 1.1500 into focus, where horizontal resistance and the 50-day EMA converge.
A move above there would expose the 200-day EMA at 1.1570, before attention turns to 1.1600, the mid-June swing high. A break above this level would strengthen the bullish outlook.
Oil extends rally for a 5th day as US-Iran conflict deepens and supply worries intensify Oil prices are continuing to rise, with WTI heading towards $90 a barrel and Brent towards $100.
Prices are on track for a third consecutive week of gains, leaving crude up around 28% in July, which would mark the strongest monthly gain since March, when the U.S.-Iran conflict first began.
The latest leg higher comes as the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire for a 12th consecutive night, while concerns over global oil supplies continue to intensify.
Attacks on tankers in the Red Sea by Yemen's Houthis, together with the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz, mean Middle East oil exports are now facing disruption through both the Bab el-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.
As a result, geopolitical risk premiums have returned to the market and are likely to keep oil prices supported as long as shipping disruption persists.
Goldman Sachs believes Brent could reach $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if the conflict continues to escalate.
However, its base-case forecast remains $80 a barrel, assuming the conflict is eventually resolved.
Oil Forecast – Technical Analysis
Oil has recovered sharply from the $67 low, breaking above several important resistance levels, including the 50-day EMA, the 200-day EMA, the falling trendline and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the $55–$120 move.
The RSI continues to point to further upside while remaining below overbought territory.
Buyers will look for a move towards $95, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, before attention turns to the $100 psychological level.
On the downside, initial support can be seen at $88, the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Below there, trendline support comes in around $83.50, alongside the 50-day EMA at $82.20.
Further support is located at $80, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, followed by the 200-day SMA around $78.
USD/JPY inches higher after posting minor losses in the previous day, trading around 163.20 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency pair is holding a clear bullish bias as spot remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of the shorter EMA above the longer one reinforces the uptrend.
Additionally, the daily technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY pair is moving upwards within an ascending channel pattern, suggesting a prevailing bullish bias. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 66.10 sits in bullish territory, hinting at strong but not yet extreme upside momentum.
The USD/JPY pair is positioned slightly below the fresh 40-year high of 163.24, which was reached on July 21. Further advances would support the pair to approach the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 165.00.
On the downside, the primary support lies at the nine-day EMA of 162.71, followed by the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 162.50. A sustained break below the channel would expose the 50-day EMA at 161.16. Further declines below the medium-term moving average would cause a bearish emergence and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the region around the four-month low of 155.04, recorded on May 6.
USD/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.01%0.02%-0.14%-0.10%0.22%0.07%EUR0.11%0.12%0.15%-0.03%0.02%0.35%0.18%GBP0.00%-0.12%0.04%-0.17%-0.11%0.23%0.06%JPY-0.02%-0.15%-0.04%-0.18%-0.13%0.18%0.03%CAD0.14%0.03%0.17%0.18%0.04%0.37%0.19%AUD0.10%-0.02%0.11%0.13%-0.04%0.34%0.19%NZD-0.22%-0.35%-0.23%-0.18%-0.37%-0.34%-0.18%CHF-0.07%-0.18%-0.06%-0.03%-0.19%-0.19%0.18% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
ING’s Francesco Pesole expects the ECB to leave rates unchanged but deliver a hawkish hold, with Middle East tensions and rising European gas prices keeping hawks in control. He argues policymakers aim to preserve market pricing of around 45bp of tightening by year-end, likely via a familiar post-meeting media leak, which should support front-end Euro rates even as ING’s near-term EUR/USD bias remains tilted lower toward 1.1380.
"The ECB is widely expected to leave rates unchanged today, but a surprise hike cannot be fully ruled out."
"Our baseline is a hawkish hold. The re-escalation in the Middle East and European gas prices rising faster than oil prices should keep hawkish voices dominant in the governing council, in our view."
"The aim today could be – once again – to preserve market pricing (45bp by year-end) to limit the risk of inflation expectations de-anchoring."
"Achieving that may well require some indication that a September hike remains in play – more likely through a familiar post-meeting media leak than directly in the press conference."
"A central bank meeting would normally be a prime catalyst for EUR/USD to break out of its tight trading range, but we do not expect that to happen today. Our near-term bias remains tilted to the downside, as we believe FX markets are dangerously complacent about developments in the Gulf. Unless the newsflow becomes more constructive, we look for EUR/USD to slip towards 1.1380 in the coming days."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The Dollar Index remains anchored to its uptrend and the 100.50 support area, preserving the bullish picture despite modest losses today. Trading near 101.01, the DXY is comfortably above its 50-EMA (100.38) and 100-EMA (99.80), with bullish control remaining intact higher on the timeframe.
The first level of resistance to watch is 101.65, with the next major ones coming in at 102.30 and 103.02. Initial support is provided by 100.50, with the rising trendline and 99.53 providing further support further back. RSI sits in the mid-50 area around 55, showing that momentum remains mostly neutral to slightly bullish despite being cooled from its earlier peak, thus the opportunity for yet another upside leg remains on the table.
If 100.50 holds, the bias would still be positive for renewed buying in an effort to test 101.65. Should the pair trade above the aforementioned levels in a daily close, the scenario would strengthen for another push towards 102.30, but the trendline and 100.50 could break, causing that bullish perspective to be pushed off and instead testing the 99.53.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Recovery Faces Strong Resistance Near 1.3400
The British Pound (GBP) trades marginally higher to near 1.3387 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair edges higher as the US Dollar drops despite surging oil prices in the wake of escalating Middle East energy supply risks.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 101.00.
On the domestic front, investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement next week, in which it is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
Meanwhile, the British Pound demonstrates a broader mixed performance while fears of Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes have eased. Traders doubt the BoE will tighten monetary conditions in the near term as the United Kingdom (UK) headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth has cooled down to 2.6% Year-on-Year (YoY) in June from the previous reading of 2.8%.
BoE seen on extended hold before gradual easing to neutral in 2027Economists at Societe Generale reiterate that their “baseline forecast remains that the BoE will keep Bank Rate on hold at 3.75% throughout 2026,” reflecting a view that policymakers will need prolonged time to consolidate the disinflation trend. They add that “by early 2027, we expect the MPC to gain confidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target over the medium term, allowing for cumulative rate cuts of 75bp in 2027,” which would “bring Bank Rate to our estimate of its neutral level of 3%.”
Going forward, investors will focus on the UK Retail Sales for June and the preliminary S&P Global PMI data for July, which will be released on Friday.
GBP/USD technical analysis
GBP/USD trades slightly higher at around 1.3387 at press time. The pair corrects to near the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.3385, after correcting from the downward-sloping border of the Descending Triangle pattern at 1.3540, suggesting that the near-term outlook has become uncertain.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 50.73 sits near neutral, hinting that recent buying pressure is stabilizing rather than driving a decisive breakout, leaving the near-term bias slightly constructive but still capped by overhead trend resistance.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the downward-sloping trend-line region near 1.3501, followed by the July 15 high at 1.3558. On the downside, the July 8 low at 1.3322 is the immediate support zone, with a more notable cushion at the June 24 low at 1.3140.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
Silver (XAG/USD) is trading practically flat, a few cents below the $60.00 level on Thursday, with upside attempts capped as US Treasury yields jump to fresh highs. The precious metal was rejected at the $61.00 area on Wednesday, but the following reversal found buyers at the middle range of the $58.00s earlier in the day.
Markets remain in a cautious mood as the war in Iran threatens to extend through the region. US and Iran have exchanged attacks for the 12th consecutive day, and reports of attacks on Saudi Arabian vessels in the Red Sea have sent Oil prices to their highest levels since early June, spurring inflationary pressures and pushing US Treasury yields higher. This is likely to keep Silver bulls in check during the next sessions.
Technical Analysis: The immediate bias remains positive
XAG/USD trades at $59.70, holding above the broken downward trendline, consolidating gains after a 7.5% rally in the last four trading days. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is still positive, although showing fading momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the horizontal barrier around $60.70, which capped bulls on July 9, ahead of July's top, at the $63.30 area. On the downside, the session low at $58.46 is likely to provide some support ahead of the broken trendline, now at $55.50, and the year-to-date low, at $54.72.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold – Chart Gold is trading sideways just below a long-term descending trendline on the 4-hour timeframe, recovering slightly from the lows of July. XAU/USD was last trading at about $4,123, well above the 50-EMA ($4,068) and 100-EMA ($4,083) and thus retaining a slightly constructive tilt on the shorter-timeframe bias even if there is resistance in the vicinity.
The next resistance is the descending trendline at $4,148, followed by $4,200 and $4,246 levels. The next support is at $4,075, while the lower-level supports are at $4,020 and $3,957. The RSI is just below 63, indicating some bullish momentum, although the indicator also moves towards overbought territory.
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann expect GBP/USD to consolidate intraday between 1.3350 and 1.3400 after a modest pullback from recent lows. However, for the coming weeks, Quek Ser Leang warns that rapidly building downside momentum means a daily close below 1.3340 could open 1.3300. The strong resistance cap has been lowered to 1.3435, while the broader multi‑month view remains range‑bound.
Pound-Dollar pressured but still range bound"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP dropped sharply to a low of 1.3360 two days ago. Yesterday, when GBP was at 1.3375, we indicated that “the rapid increase in downward momentum suggests GBP could continue to decline.” However, we highlighted that “last week’s low, near 1.3340, is expected to provide firm support.” GBP weakened less than expected to 1.3355 before closing largely unchanged at 1.3376 (+0.01%). With momentum indicators turning flat, we expect GBP to consolidate today, most likely between 1.3350 and 1.3400."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Following the sharp decline in GBP two days ago, we highlighted yesterday (22 Jul, spot at 1.3375) that “downward momentum is increasing rapidly, and if GBP closes below 1.3340, it is likely to decline further to 1.3300.” We added, “the likelihood of GBP closing below 1.3340 will remain intact as long as the ‘strong resistance’ level, now at 1.3455, is not breached.” We continue to hold the same view, but we are revising the ‘strong resistance’ level to 1.3435."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Euro (EUR) is up 0.15% at around 1.1430 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Thursday. The EUR/USD pair rises as the major currency outperforms its peers ahead of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement at 12:15 GMT.
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%-0.09%-0.05%-0.15%-0.23%-0.04%-0.13%EUR0.15%0.08%0.11%0.00%-0.08%0.13%0.03%GBP0.09%-0.08%0.04%-0.09%-0.16%0.05%-0.05%JPY0.05%-0.11%-0.04%-0.11%-0.19%-0.01%-0.09%CAD0.15%0.00%0.09%0.11%-0.09%0.11%0.01%AUD0.23%0.08%0.16%0.19%0.09%0.21%0.12%NZD0.04%-0.13%-0.05%0.00%-0.11%-0.21%-0.10%CHF0.13%-0.03%0.05%0.09%-0.01%-0.12%0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The ECB is expected to leave policy rates steady after a 25-basis point (bp) hike in the June policy meeting. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and remarks from ECB President Christine Lagarde in the press conference regarding the monetary policy and the inflation outlook.
According to a Reuters report, traders price in two more interest rate hikes from the ECB this year. Market participants would like to know whether fears of second-round effects of inflation in the Eurozone economy are real.
ECB policymaker and Governor of Bank of Italy, Fabio Panetta, said in the mid of the month that the central bank’s goal is to keep inflation expectations firmly anchored and limit indirect and second-round effects of shocks.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) faces marginal selling pressure despite surging oil prices amid Middle East energy supply risks.
EUR/USD technical analysis
EUR/USD trades higher at around 1.1430 at press time. The major currency pair has rebounded to near the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 1.1433, signaling a neutral near-term bias. The pair trades in a Bearish Flag chart pattern, which is a trend-following pattern that continues a downside trend after a brief pause.
The Relative Strength Index (14) stays inside the 40.00-60.00zone, hinting at subdued bullish momentum and reinforcing the idea that rallies are vulnerable while price holds beneath the nearby moving average and trend-line resistance.
On the topside, the psychological level of 1.500 is the immediate resistance, with a more notable barrier at the upper line of the rising channel near 1.1521. On the downside, initial support is seen at the channel’s lower boundary around 1.1402; a clear break beneath this floor would open the way for a deeper slide towards the June 24 low at 1.1384.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ECB Rate On Deposit Facility One of the European Central Bank's three key interest rates, the rate on the deposit facility, is the rate at which banks earn interest when they deposit funds with the ECB. It is announced by the European Central Bank at each of its eight scheduled annual meetings.
The AUD/USD pair catches fresh bids during the Asian session on Thursday following the release of the upbeat Australian jobs report, which lifted bets for another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Furthermore, a modest US Dollar (USD) weakness lifts spot prices to the 0.7020 region in the last hour, back closer to an over one-month high set on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, escalating US-Iran tensions and rising supply disruption concerns lift crude oil prices to a fresh high since June 11, fueling inflationary concerns and bolstering hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations. This could help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven Greenback and hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the risk-sensitive AUD/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices retain a modest bullish near-term bias above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the decline from 0.7200 (late May high) and the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 41-hour chart. Adding to this, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.45 validates the constructive outlook without signaling overbought conditions.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram flattens just below the zero line, hinting that upside momentum is positive but not aggressive. Hence, any subsequent move up is likely to confront initial resistance at the 50.0% level at 0.7033. Furthermore, the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 0.7072 should act as the next hurdle in the current recovery sequence.
Further up, the 78.6% level at 0.7129 and the cycle high region at 0.7201 mark stronger barriers. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 0.6993, ahead of the 100-period EMA at 0.6976. A deeper pullback would expose the 23.6% retracement at 0.6944, with the broader bullish structure only threatened on a slide toward the anchor low near 0.6865.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD 4-hour chart
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.14%-0.06%-0.03%-0.12%-0.21%0.00%-0.10%EUR0.14%0.09%0.13%0.01%-0.07%0.16%0.04%GBP0.06%-0.09%0.04%-0.08%-0.17%0.04%-0.06%JPY0.03%-0.13%-0.04%-0.10%-0.19%0.02%-0.09%CAD0.12%-0.01%0.08%0.10%-0.10%0.14%0.00%AUD0.21%0.07%0.17%0.19%0.10%0.24%0.14%NZD-0.01%-0.16%-0.04%-0.02%-0.14%-0.24%-0.14%CHF0.10%-0.04%0.06%0.09%-0.01%-0.14%0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,183.76 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,202.99 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 95,456.16 per tola from PHP 95,678.09 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,183.76
10 Grams
81,839.94
Tola
95,456.16
Troy Ounce
254,542.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 497.25 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 498.48 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,799.88 per tola from SAR 5,814.18 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
497.25
10 Grams
4,972.49
Tola
5,799.88
Troy Ounce
15,466.35
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 486.74 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 487.68 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,677.20 per tola from AED 5,688.26 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
486.74
10 Grams
4,867.37
Tola
5,677.20
Troy Ounce
15,139.22
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 36,752.01 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,809.85 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 428,671.30 per tola from PKR 429,342.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
36,752.01
10 Grams
367,524.50
Tola
428,671.30
Troy Ounce
1,143,116.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 542.61 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the MYR 542.61 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at MYR 6,328.04 per tola from MYR 6,328.87 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
542.61
10 Grams
5,425.26
Tola
6,328.04
Troy Ounce
16,876.21
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,809.96 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 12,820.56 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 149,412.40 per tola from INR 149,536.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,809.96
10 Grams
128,101.40
Tola
149,412.40
Troy Ounce
398,434.50
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the third successive day, trading around 186.40 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency cross is keeping a bullish near-term bias as it holds above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The short-term EMA trading over the longer one reinforces an upward structure.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.46 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that buyers still retain control but face nearby upside constraints.
The daily chart technical analysis shows the currency cross is positioned above the upper boundary of an ascending triangle, suggesting a bullish breakout. Further advances would support the currency cross to navigate the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, a return within the triangle would expose the initial support at the nine-day EMA of 185.81, with additional backing at the 50-day EMA of 185.23 and the lower boundary of the ascending triangle near 185.20.
Further declines below the triangle pattern would undermine the bullish setup and put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the five-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the seven-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.10%-0.07%-0.17%-0.30%-0.05%-0.14%EUR0.18%0.09%0.13%0.00%-0.12%0.15%0.03%GBP0.10%-0.09%0.04%-0.10%-0.21%0.06%-0.05%JPY0.07%-0.13%-0.04%-0.12%-0.25%-0.00%-0.10%CAD0.17%-0.00%0.10%0.12%-0.14%0.13%0.01%AUD0.30%0.12%0.21%0.25%0.14%0.27%0.18%NZD0.05%-0.15%-0.06%0.00%-0.13%-0.27%-0.12%CHF0.14%-0.03%0.05%0.10%-0.01%-0.18%0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) holds above the $4,100 mark during the Asian session on Thursday and, for now, seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from an over two-week high. Crude oil prices climb to a fresh high since June 11 amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, fueling inflation fears and bolstering US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike expectations. This, in turn, lifts US Treasury bond yields to a multi-month high and is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding bullion.
The US and Iran traded strikes for a 12th night in a row, while Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis opened a new front in the war and declared a blockade on a key Red Sea shipping route that facilitates about 7% of the world’s oil supply. This comes on top of a significant fall in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and exacerbates supply disruption concerns, assisting crude oil to prolong its month-to-date uptrend. Investors remain worried that rising energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressure and force central banks to adopt a more hawkish stance.
According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are currently pricing in over a 90% chance that the Fed will hike interest rates by the end of this year. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US bond yields, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond yield holding firm near a two-month high. However, some follow-through US Dollar (USD) weakness lends some support to the Gold price and helps limit the downside. This makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that a one-week-old uptrend has run out of steam.
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the rates move was accompanied by a notable shift in policy expectations, with investors now "priced in a more hawkish path for the Fed, with 34bps of hikes now priced in by the December meeting, up +2.3bps on the day." They note that this repricing has helped reinforce the recent rise in US real yields and the broader selloff across the Treasury curve.
Traders now look forward to the release of the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US for some impetus during the early North American session. Furthermore, the highly-anticipated European Central Bank (ECB) meeting could infuse some volatility in financial markets. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis should contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around Gold.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold needs to surpass $4,155-$4,165 confluence to back the case for additional gainsThe XAU/USD pair stalled a one-week-old uptrend near the $4,155-$4,165 confluence – comprising the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EM) on the 4-hour chart and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June downfall. The said area should now act as a key pivotal point for short-term traders amid constructive momentum indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 63, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays positive, hinting that buyers retain some control but are constrained by overhead supply.
This, in turn, suggests that the precious metal would first need to clear the aforementioned clustered resistance to back the case for any further appreciation. A sustained break above this would open the way towards 23.6% Fibo. retracement at $4,164.97 and the denser barrier near the 38.2% retracement at $4,303.59. On the downside, the primary structural floor is the Fibo. anchor at $3,940.90, where a deeper pullback could find demand and attempt to rebuild a more stable base for Gold.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%-0.12%-0.07%-0.17%-0.29%-0.04%-0.13%EUR0.15%0.04%0.09%-0.03%-0.14%0.12%0.01%GBP0.12%-0.04%0.07%-0.08%-0.19%0.08%-0.03%JPY0.07%-0.09%-0.07%-0.12%-0.23%0.01%-0.08%CAD0.17%0.03%0.08%0.12%-0.12%0.14%0.02%AUD0.29%0.14%0.19%0.23%0.12%0.27%0.17%NZD0.04%-0.12%-0.08%-0.01%-0.14%-0.27%-0.12%CHF0.13%-0.01%0.03%0.08%-0.02%-0.17%0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Dollar Index seems to be reacting less to rising crude and has chosen to remain stable around 101, which has led to strength in the Euro above 1.14. Yen to 162.66, Aussie above 0.70, and EURJPY above 186. However, we may expect the Dollar Index to test 100.70 before bouncing back towards 102 in the medium term, indicating that the above-mentioned strength in the currencies may be short-lived. EURINR looks bullish towards 110.50-111 while USDCNY can trade within 6.75-6.7850 for some time. Pound can test 1.33 while below 1.3550. USDINR has risen to close above 96.50 yesterday, which reduces chances of a fall to 96-95.85 and reinforces upside targets of 96.75-97.00. ECB policy meeting is due today, where markets expect the rates to be kept unchanged.
The US Treasury and the German Yields sustain higher. Both remain bullish and have room to rise more from here. The ECB meeting outcome today will need a close watch. The 10Yr GoI has risen back again. That still keeps alive the chances of seeing some more rise from here before the broader downtrend resumes.
Dow and DAX are likely to remain within the 52000-53000 and 24700-25500 ranges respectively. Nifty has turned weak after slipping below 24000 and needs to reclaim this level to revive the bullish outlook towards 24400; otherwise, it could decline towards 23800-23750. Nikkei has pulled back from key resistance and can fall further towards 65000-64000. Shanghai remains firm and can rise gradually towards 3900-3925.
Crude prices remain strong, amid escalating geopolitical tensions. Brent and WTI can extend their rally towards $95 and $100 respectively. Gold is likely to remain within the broad $4000-$4200 range while below $4200. Silver can continue to trade within the $55-$65 range. Copper remains bullish despite the recent correction and can rise further towards $6.60-$6.70. Natural Gas has recovered and is likely to trade within the $2.80-$3.00 range for some time.
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