Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

In this week's Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire details how gold's structural breakout is being driven by central banks replacing dollar reserves with physical gold at a pace that is forcing a fundamental repricing of the global monetary order.

USDJPY fell sharply during late Asian/early European trading on Thursday (down 0.8%) and attempts to break below multi-day range, after the action was repeatedly capped by daily cloud top / 200DMA.

Fresh drop weakens the structure on daily chart, as the price moves deeper into thick daily cloud and breaks below daily Kijun-sen (157.16), pressuring next significant support at 156.68 (Fibo 38.2% of 152.88/159.03 upleg).

Falling 14-d momentum broke into negative territory, contributing to negative near-term outlook, with daily close below 157.50 (range floor) seen as minimum requirement to keep fresh bears in play.

In addition, break and close below 156.68 Fibo support would confirm negative signal and open way for deeper drop, which may challenge daily cloud base (155.65).

Alternatively, return and close within existing range would signal false break lower and keep the price in prolonged sideways mode.

Only sustained break above 200DMA / cloud top would be a game changer.

Res: 157.16; 157.58; 157.88; 158.53

Sup: 156.68; 156.37; 155.96; 155.65

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The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

Gold falls despite easing real Treasury yields as geopolitical tensions intensify, putting critical $4,000 support in focus ahead of the Fed meeting.

Long-term Real Yields Continue to Drift Lower Long-term real yields in the United States have been drifting lower even before this announcement, including the 10-year real yield dropping to a reading of 2.77% from 2.88% recorded on October 13. This is typically a good signal for gold to appreciate, but it is also still historically elevated. Therefore, inflation-adjusted government returns can reduce the opportunity cost of holding an asset such as gold that has no yield. But when it is still fairly elevated, it does not have that effect quite yet.

Simply put, we are moving in the correct direction for gold bulls, but there still seems to be some way to go. That being said, the size of the drop in real yields is fairly short-duration and not big enough to declare that there is a complete change in monetary policy or the monetary environment.

Nominal Rates Nominal rates also show why the phrase “yields fell” needs clarification. The 10-year Treasury yield declined from 5.15% to 5.12% to kick off the week, but the 2-year increased from 4.77% to 4.79%. In other words, the market has not seen a uniform easing across maturities. This combination is consistent with different pressures on near-term policy-sensitive rates and longer-term financing conditions.

Last month’s CPI rate being subtracted from the nominal yield would mix backward inflation measures with a forward-looking return. That shortcut obscures the financial signal the markets are tracking. The real yield series provides a more consistent comparison along the recent daily observation, as opposed to simply taking the nominal yield.

Tension Between Economic Resilience and Restrictive Financing Census and HUD reported on October 20 that September housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million, an estimate 5.2% below revised August. This also adds more context. The report’s uncertainty interval around that monthly change is plus or minus 11.8 percentage points, so the estimated decline was not distinguishable from zero. Housing permits were at a 1.4 million annual rate, down 0.2% monthly.

Softer rate-sensitive activity can encourage expectations of eventual policy relief, but one noisy housing estimate will not be enough to establish an economy-wide downturn. It will simply end up being yet another piece of the puzzle.

September CPI Inflation remains the competing constraint. September CPI, released on October 14, rose 0.6% month-over-month after seasonal adjustment and 3.7% over 12 months before adjustment. Core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. The September PPI, released on October 15, increased 1.3% monthly after adjustment and 6.3% annually before adjustment.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts This creates two possible outcomes for gold. Concern about purchasing power can strengthen demand for protection, while a forceful monetary response can raise the return available on competing assets. PPI increases also need not pass through to the customer. Inflation, margins, and demand affect that process.

Fed Meeting Coming Next Week The next scheduled Federal Reserve meeting is October 27 and 28. This decision is expected to be the Federal Reserve holding, but a sustained decline in real yields combined with evidence of slowing activity could reinforce more accommodation via the Federal Reserve and therefore give a boost to gold.

The chart below tracks every published 10-year real yield observation starting October 13, with calendar gaps preserved on the graph. That being said, the situation in the Middle East seems to have taken front and center yet again, and therefore we may see continued fear in a market that remains nervous about the conflict between the Americans and the Iranians.

U.S. 10-year real Treasury yields fell from 2.88% on October 13 to 2.77% on October 20, easing from 2.80% the previous day. Technical Setup

Gold futures trade near $4,089.50, below resistance at $4,200, with the next major support at $4,000. Gold is currently reacting to the bad news coming out of the Middle East. As things stand at the moment, the $4,000 level is an area that must hold if gold is going to keep any bullish attitude at all. Watching this area for a bounce is how I am looking to play the market. A move below that level would be very bearish, to say the least.

U.S. manufacturing output rebounded to 98.4 in September from 98.2 in August, matching July’s level and remaining above April’s 98.1.
Broad Manufacturing Cannot Tell the Whole Story
Silver is used across several industrial applications, which is why the broad manufacturing index alone doesn’t measure direct silver consumption. Stronger factory output does not establish how much metal was purchased, which technologies accounted for demand, or whether inventories were accumulated. It’s a bit premature to turn an improvement in aggregate activity into an estimate of additional silver demand.

At This Point, the Monetary Side Is Probably the Main Driver
The Treasury’s 10-year real par yield eased to 2.76% yesterday from 2.77% the day before. The 2-year nominal par yield instead increased to 4.81% from 4.79% the previous session. A small reduction in longer-term inflation-adjusted opportunity costs alongside firmer short-maturity nominal financing conditions offers a bit of a mixed signal.

Silver Price Forecast

Every new Silver analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Silver forecasts
This contrast can produce a less straightforward response than an inflation-hedge narrative might suggest. Lower real yields could support precious-metal demand, but high borrowing costs can restrain working capital, capital spending, and inventory financing. Silver can consequently be influenced by both monetary expectations, especially coming out of the Federal Reserve, and changes in manufacturing confidence.

PPI Report Last Week
The BLS reported September final-demand PPI last week, rising 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. The measure excluding food, energy, and trade services increased 0.5% monthly and 5% annually. Separately, the CPI release last week put September headline consumer inflation at 3.7% annually. These measures cover different stages of economic pricing and are not interchangeable, though.

Silver sees elevated producer costs having conflicting implications. It can strengthen interest in monetary protection, but at the same time, it can also squeeze manufacturers’ margins and reduce the appeal of holding costly materials such as silver or gold. The effect depends on whether businesses can pass through costs and whether final demand remains resilient.

The Euro is still hovering around the downtrend resistance line as more pressure still affects the market. As long as prices hold below the resistance of 1.1240-80 the drop pressure could continue towards the target and support of 1.1065, which in turn could lead to a correction.

USDJPY added more value above 157.85 as the drop pressure still overshadows the market as traders expect an intervention from the Bank of Japan. Intraday prices show resistances at 159.00 and 160.00, while a drop wave could hit the market toward 156.40 and 153.90.

United Overseas Bank (UOB) strategists Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD's recent sharp gains have left the pair consolidating around 1.3395, with scope for a modest intraday rise within 1.3370–1.3415.

Gold (XAU/USD) slips below $4,100 on Thursday despite a softer US Dollar (USD) and falling US Treasury yields. The precious metal struggles to attract buyers as energy-driven inflation concerns from Middle East tensions reinforce expectations that interest rates will remain elevated longer. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,069, down 1.70% on the day.

The New York Times reported that the United States (US) and Israel have drawn up plans for renewed strikes against Iran after the US midterm elections, potentially targeting the country's energy infrastructure.

Meanwhile, tensions between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis continue to escalate, with fresh attacks reported on Saudi Arabia's Shaybah oil field and King Fahd International Airport. The US State Department has also ordered non-emergency government employees and their family members to leave Saudi Arabia.

Fresh geopolitical headlines have raised concerns about further disruptions to Middle East energy supplies, pushing Oil prices higher. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rebounds toward $100, up 1.40% on the day and trading near five-week highs.

The ongoing energy shock has pushed inflation above central bank targets across major economies, prompting policymakers to raise borrowing costs. Higher interest rates reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal despite its traditional role as a safe-haven asset and an inflation hedge. The longer the conflict drags on, the longer central banks may need to keep monetary policy restrictive.

Traders now look ahead to next week's Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting, where the US central bank is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged after raising them by 25 basis points (bps) in September. Markets will closely watch for clues about the Fed's interest rate path, as traders price in another rate hike in December, with the CME FedWatch Tool placing the odds at 89%.

However, these hawkish expectations are providing limited support to the US Dollar and Treasury yields in the near term, with both correcting from recent highs as concerns over AI-related investments weigh on equities and drive demand for government bonds.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.66 after hitting a three-week low of 101.45. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield stands at around 5.06%, down 1% on a daily basis.

Looking ahead, Gold is likely to remain sensitive to interest rate expectations and Oil price movements, although weakness in the US Dollar and Treasury yields could keep losses contained.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD tests lower Bollinger Band

On the daily chart, XAU/USD tests the lower Bollinger Band near $4,069, while trading below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), which forms the middle Bollinger Band around $4,153, keeping the near-term bias tilted to the downside.

The Relative Strength Index hovers in the high-30s, hinting at lingering downside pressure, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays marginally positive but has rolled over, suggesting that recent recovery momentum is fading rather than strengthening.

On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 20-period SMA near $4,153, followed by the upper Bollinger Band around $4,237. A sustained break above these levels could open the door toward $4,400, followed by the $4,500 psychological mark.

On the downside, immediate support lies at the lower Bollinger Band near $4,069. A clear break below this level could expose the $4,000 psychological mark, followed by the June lows around $3,950.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

British Pound attempts to consolidate above 1.3400 amid US Dollar’s weaknessThe British Pound (GBP) keeps heading higher against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as markets brace for Federal Reserve (Fed) policy next week, while in the UK the conditions are set for a Bank of England (BoE) rate hike in November. Against this background, the GBP/USD pair trades at one-month highs just above 1.3400, on track for a 1.4% rally over the last two weeks.

UK data released on Wednesday confirmed that high energy prices are boosting consumer inflation, adding pressure on the BoE to tighten borrowing costs. UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, released last week, revealed that the economy keeps growing, which will make the decision easier for the central bank’s policymakers at the November 5 meeting. Read more...

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Holds onto monthly high near 1.3410The British Pound (GBP) reflects strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading firmly near the monthly high at around 1.3410 in the European trade. The GBP/USD pair strengthens as hot United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September has boosted hawkish Bank of England (BoE) expectations.

Analysts at Nomura highlight that the latest UK inflation release showed renewed upside pressure, with “both headline and services inflation” in the September report coming in “above consensus expectations.” They note that the BoE’s core gauge of underlying price pressures remains stubborn, stressing that “the BoE’s core measure service prices momentum has been sticky over the past few months.” Read more...

British Pound consolidates near September 16 highs, just below 1.3400 vs subdued USDThe GBP/USD pair enters a bullish consolidation phase during the Asian session on Thursday, trading just below the 1.3400 mark and near its highest level since September 16, touched earlier this week. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bulls and backs the case for an extension of a one-week-old uptrend.

The US Dollar (USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers and remains close to a nearly three-week low set on Tuesday amid declining US bond yields. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, is underpinned by the growing acceptance that the Bank of England (BoE) will hike interest rates in November, bolstered by a rise in UK consumer price inflation to an 11-month high in September. This, in turn, acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair and validates the positive outlook. Read more...

Gold (XAU/USD) drops sharply on Tuesday to test the bottom of the last three weeks’ trading range, and a nearly three-month low at $4,070, which so far remains intact. Precious metals remain on their back foot on Thursday, weighed by higher Oil prices, as the Middle East conflict threatens to complicate further and Yemeni Houthi militias keep pounding Saudi oilfields

Brent Oil is testing five-month highs around $109.00 and WTI Crude approaches $100 following a New York Times report suggesting that the US and Israel might be considering renewing coordinated attacks on Iran after the US midterm election.

Meanwhile, attacks on Saudi Oil infrastructure from the Iran-backed Houthis continue. A drone attack on Aramco’s Shaybah Oil field has reportedly killed two people and reactivated concerns about supply disruptions. All this is contributing to the recent escalation in Crude prices and offsetting the traditional positive impact on precious metals from the pullback in US Treasury yields.

Technical Analysis: Bears test $4,070 with $4,000 in sight

XAU/USD trades at $4,085.58, just above a key support area around $4,070 that has been containing downside attempts since late September. Momentum indicators on the 4-hour chart support the bearish view as the Relative Strength Index (14) dips toward the low-30s, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero.

A confirmation below the mentioned $4,070 area (October 7, 14 lows) would bring the late July and early August lows around the $4,000 psychological area into focus. Upside attempts, on the contrary, are likely to be tested at Tuesday's and Wednesday's highs around $4,150, ahead of the $4,200 area (October 13 and 16 highs), and the range top around $4,230.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Rising oil prices from geopolitical tensions are raising inflation expectations and strengthening the case for tighter Fed policy, which in turn weakens support for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Higher energy prices directly increase inflation expectations, prompting markets to price in a longer period of high interest rates. This increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

Markets see little chance of a rate hike at the Fed meeting on 27–28 October, with the probability estimated at just 16.0%. At the same time, traders are pricing in a December rate hike with high confidence, at 90.0%. The prospect of tighter policy in December is keeping the US dollar and bond yields elevated, preventing gold from recovering.

Today, gold is feeling the effects of higher oil prices. As long as the threat of energy supply disruptions remains, the inflation premium will limit XAU/USD’s upside, despite strong demand from central banks.

Technical analysisOn the H4 chart, XAU/USD remains in a downtrend. The market formed another downward wave towards 4,091 USD, confirming sellers’ dominance. Today, a corrective rise towards 4,103 USD cannot be ruled out, followed by a possible retest from below of previously broken support. Once the correction is complete, the decline is expected to continue towards 4,057 USD. A break below this level would open the way towards the next target at 4,022 USD. The nearest resistance is at 4,127 USD. The MACD indicator confirms that the bearish scenario remains intact: the histogram is in negative territory and the signal line is below zero, indicating persistent selling pressure and limiting prospects for a sustained recovery.

On the H1 chart, XAU/USD broke below support at 4,103 USD and developed downward momentum towards 4,088 USD. The price is currently attempting to stabilise around 4,091 USD. A short-term consolidation range could form, followed by a corrective return towards 4,103 USD. This level is considered key to assessing the next move. If the price closes below it, another downward wave towards 4,057 USD is expected, with scope for a further decline towards 4,022 USD. The Stochastic oscillator is oversold below 20, allowing for a short-term technical rebound. However, a reversal signal has not yet formed. The main scenario for the upcoming trading session remains a continuation of the decline following a possible retest of broken support. A move above 4,127 USD would weaken the current bearish scenario and require a reassessment of the near-term targets.

ConclusionGold remains under pressure as rising oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, increase inflation expectations and strengthen the case for tighter Fed policy. While markets see only a 16.0% probability of an October rate hike, a December rate hike is priced in with a 90.0% probability, keeping the US dollar and bond yields elevated and weighing on the non-yielding metal. Despite strong central bank demand, the inflation premium continues to limit gold’s upside. Technically, the bearish trend remains intact, with a possible corrective rebound towards 4,103 USD before the decline resumes towards 4,057 USD and potentially 4,022 USD. A move above resistance at 4,127 USD would weaken the current bearish scenario and require a reassessment of the near-term targets.

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,100, and the three latest analyses cannot agree on what the level means: one sees the bounce from support as confirmation of a potential push toward $4,227, another argues every rally is vulnerable while price sits under its 20-day EMA, and the third points to India

In our last video, we noted a continued increase in the price of crude oil.

Chris Turner at ING highlights that EUR/USD is holding up despite higher energy prices and French budget risks, helped by unwinding of heavy US tech and Dollar positions. He sees Fed tightening expectations remaining firm and the Dollar strong in coming months.

Societe Generale analysts observe that Gold has formed an interim low near $4,065 and is consolidating in a narrow range. They flag resistance at $4,200/4,225 and warn that failure to break higher could trigger a deeper correction toward the June low at $3,960/3,940 and projections near $3,830, with $4,065 acting as initial support.

Consolidation with downside potential "Gold carved out an interim low near $4,065 earlier this month and has since evolved within a narrow consolidation."

"The upper boundary of this range at $4,200/4,225 represents a short-term resistance zone."

"Failure to overcome this hurdle could denote the risk of a deeper pullback."

"The lower boundary of the consolidation near $4,065 serves as the first support."

"A break below this may extend the decline towards the June low at $3,960/3,940 and projections near $3,830."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Silver (XAG/USD) has resumed its broader bearish trend on Thursday, to reach session lows below $56.00 after an impulsive reversal from the $58.00 area.

The Pound-Euro could remain supported if BoE Governor Andrew Bailey reinforces rate hike expectations, while weaker Eurozone confidence may pressure the Euro.
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate rose to a fresh 17-month high on Thursday following the UK’s latest inflation figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1940, up 0.3% on the day and at its highest level since May 2025.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.192398 (+0.10%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3395 (+0.17%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.123367 (+0.06%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) attracted fresh support on Wednesday after the UK’s latest consumer price index fuelled Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike bets.

September’s CPI figures showed headline inflation accelerating from 3.1% to 3.5%, above forecasts for 3.4%. Meanwhile, core inflation rose from 2.6% to 2.8%, also above expectations.

Paired with Tuesday’s unexpected drop in UK unemployment, the CPI figures boosted expectations that the BoE will raise interest rates four times over the next year, which supported Sterling.

However, GBP’s upside was capped by above-forecast government borrowing in September, which stoked fiscal concerns ahead of next week’s Autumn Budget.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) continued to face pressure as protests and rioting in France and Italy, alongside unrest elsewhere in Europe, fuelled concerns about political and social stability across the region.

These tensions added to existing worries about France’s debt crisis, with mounting concerns over the country’s fiscal outlook and bond market pressures threatening to spill over into the wider Eurozone. Fears of contagion continued to weigh on the single currency, as investors remained wary that France’s financial difficulties could spread to other heavily indebted member states.

Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: BoE Comments to Prop Up the Pound?
Looking forward, new data from the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) could impact the Pound on Thursday. A deepening contraction in industrial orders and a decline in business confidence could put pressure on the Pound.

Sterling may attract support later in the session amid a speech from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. If the Bank of England chief signals that interest rate hikes are on the horizon, demand for GBP could increase.

As for the Euro, the Eurozone’s preliminary consumer confidence index for October is out in the afternoon. EUR may stumble if the release shows a deterioration in morale this month, as expected.

Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold (XAUUSD) and silver price forecast: oil-fed Fed hike bets and Russian sales push gold toward $4,079 support as silver breaks below $56.92.

The British Pound (GBP) reflects strength against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, trading firmly near the monthly high at around 1.3410 in the European trade. The GBP/USD pair strengthens as hot United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September has boosted hawkish Bank of England (BoE) expectations.

UK inflation surprise keeps BoE tightening bias in focus

Analysts at Nomura highlight that the latest UK inflation release showed renewed upside pressure, with “both headline and services inflation” in the September report coming in “above consensus expectations.” They note that the BoE’s core gauge of underlying price pressures remains stubborn, stressing that “the BoE’s core measure service prices momentum has been sticky over the past few months.”

Nomura also points to pipeline pressures, observing that “upstream prices also surprised on the upside.” While they judge that wholesale goods price rises were “dominated by a rise in energy costs,” they add that “core prices rose at a more modest pace.” At the same time, they warn that “upstream service prices are signalling a further increase in consumer prices,” underscoring the risk of renewed pass-through to households.

Against this backdrop, Nomura argues that “a combination of sticky inflation, a resilient labour market, strong economic growth and persistently elevated energy prices has led us to change our view on the BoE.” The bank now expects additional tightening, stating: “We now see rate hikes in November and February, which is still a more dovish outcome than markets are pricing.”

Going forward, investors will focus on the UK Retail Sales data for September and the preliminary Uk-United States (US) S&P Global PMI data for October, which are scheduled for Friday.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3404. The pair has reclaimed a near-term bullish tone as price holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3313 and sits between the 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci retracements of the recent downswing, with the latter just overhead at 1.3409. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 58.6 is edging into positive territory, which suggests recovering upside momentum while the pair tests this key retracement cap.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3409, followed by the 61.8% level near 1.3472 and the 78.6% retracement around 1.3562, with the recent swing high at 1.3677 acting as a more distant barrier. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3345, ahead of the 23.6% level around 1.3267, while a deeper pullback would expose the structural floor near 1.3140.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Read more.

The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.

TL;DR: Silver has dropped roughly 2.8% to 56.32, sharply underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline, as renewed attacks on Saudi infrastructure keep Brent near $110 and revive inflation-driven tightening concerns. A break below 55.37 would expose the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, with a deeper fall potentially bringing the $50 level back into focus.

Why This Matters
Silver is falling as escalating security risks in Saudi Arabia keep oil prices elevated and renew concerns about inflation-driven monetary tightening. Brent is trading around $110.84 following attacks on Saudi infrastructure and a further decline in US crude inventories, while silver has dropped approximately 2.8% to 56.32, substantially underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline. The divergence suggests that inflation and interest-rate concerns are weighing more heavily on precious metals than any immediate safe-haven support from geopolitical uncertainty.

Technically, silver’s recovery from 55.37 may have ended at 58.60, leaving the metal vulnerable to another decline toward its recent low. A break below 55.37 would expose the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, with a deeper fall potentially bringing the $50 area back into focus. The rising Gold/Silver ratio provides additional evidence of silver’s relative weakness, although a sustained breakdown remains unconfirmed.

Saudi Escalation Keeps Oil and Inflation Risks Elevated
Renewed attacks on Saudi Arabian infrastructure have heightened concerns about the security of Middle East energy supplies. On Wednesday, Saudi air defenses intercepted a drone targeting Aramco’s Shaybah oilfield, with falling debris killing two people and injuring two others. Saudi authorities said operations were unaffected. The US State Department also ordered non-emergency government personnel and their families to leave Saudi Arabia amid increasing attacks on civilian airports and critical infrastructure. These developments have raised the perceived risk of future supply disruptions, even though no production loss was reported at Shaybah.

Brent crude remained elevated near $110, while US Energy Information Administration data showed crude inventories falling by 3.06 million barrels to 412.5 million barrels in the week ending October 16. The combination of geopolitical supply risks and tighter inventories is helping sustain oil prices, reinforcing concerns that elevated energy costs could prolong inflation pressures. That, in turn, raises the risk that the Fed may need to maintain restrictive monetary policy for longer, or tighten further if inflation proves persistent. However, a fresh increase in market-implied Fed hike probabilities has not been established, and Brent has yet to confirm a sustained closing breakout above the 109.97 technical reference level.

Why Is Silver Underperforming Gold Despite a Subdued Dollar Backdrop?
Silver’s renewed decline is notable because the earlier Dollar and Treasury-yield backdrop offered little fresh direction. Dollar Index was hovering around 101.7, while the US 10-year Treasury yield remained near 5.11%, broadly unchanged. Silver had consequently spent much of the previous week fluctuating between approximately 55.37 and 58.60. The latest geopolitical developments have introduced another potential source of pressure through oil prices and the inflation outlook, even without a decisive accompanying rise in Dollar or Treasury yields.

Silver is also underperforming gold by a substantial margin. Gold declined around 1.2% toward 4,091 in the supplied market snapshot, compared with silver’s 2.8% fall toward 56.32. Silver’s combination of precious-metal and industrial characteristics leaves it exposed not only to higher interest-rate expectations but also to concerns that elevated energy costs and tighter financial conditions could restrain economic activity. The Gold/Silver ratio has consequently risen toward 72.6, reflecting a clear deterioration in silver’s relative performance. The divergence is consistent with inflation and growth concerns outweighing any immediate safe-haven benefit from the escalation.

Positioning Offers Limited Support, but Capitulation Is Unconfirmed
Speculative positioning had already weakened before the latest selloff. CFTC data indicate that managed-money net longs in COMEX silver futures declined steadily through October:

Mid-September: ~13,100 contracts
Early October: ~7,500 contracts
October 13: ~5,600 contracts

The reduction suggests that speculative exposure was relatively light even before silver’s sharp decline on October 14, potentially limiting the extent of further liquidation from previously crowded long positions.

However, the positioning figures predate that decline and cannot establish whether additional long liquidation or short selling has subsequently occurred. The next CFTC report should provide a clearer picture of how speculative investors responded. Available inventory figures also offer insufficient evidence of an acute physical-market shortage capable of offsetting the prevailing selling pressure. For now, positioning provides context for the decline rather than a convincing argument that silver has reached a durable bottom.

ActionForex’s Technical View: Silver, 55.37 and 54.77 Guard Against a Fall Toward $50
Silver’s recovery from 55.37 stalled at 58.60 after encountering resistance around the 55 4H EMA. The subsequent decline supports the possibility that the rebound was corrective and has already completed. Near-term bias therefore favors another test of 55.37, particularly while silver remains below the four-hour moving average, currently around 58.14.

A decisive break below 55.37 would expose the 61.8% projection of 61.44 to 55.37 from 58.60 at approximately 54.85. This lies close to the more important daily support at 54.77, making the area a critical test of the broader bearish scenario. A firm break through this support cluster would open the way toward the 100% projection at 52.53.

More importantly, a sustained daily break below 54.77 would strengthen the case for an extension of the medium term down trend toward the 61.8% projection of 89.36 to 54.77 from 71.17 at 49.78, near the psychological $50 level.

Nevertheless, the larger downside scenario remains conditional. Silver has not yet broken 55.37, and the 54.85–54.77 support cluster could still attract buying interest. A recovery above the four-hour 55 EMA would weaken immediate selling pressure, while a sustained break above 58.60 would invalidate the interpretation that the latest rebound has completed.

Meanwhile, the Gold/Silver ratio’s renewed advance is adding to the bearish case for silver, with its own technical structure pointing to potential further relative weakness.

ActionForex’s Technical View: Gold/Silver Ratio, Rebound Raises Risk of Further Silver Underperformance
The Gold/Silver ratio’s pullback from 74.14 appears to have found support at 70.91, near the rising four-hour trend line and 55 4H EMA. The subsequent rebound toward 72.6 suggests that the correction could have ended, preserving the broader bullish structure established since the September low at 64.65. A further advance toward 74.14 is favored while the trend-line support holds.

A sustained break above 74.14 would indicate resumption of the larger advance, opening the way toward the 61.8% projection around 76.9–76.95 on the daily chart. Such a move would signal further silver underperformance relative to gold and reinforce the bearish silver outlook, particularly if accompanied by a decisive break below 55.37.

For now, the combination of elevated oil prices, renewed inflation concerns and deteriorating relative performance leaves silver vulnerable to another downward leg. However, a move toward $50 requires confirmation through the 55.37 and 54.77 support levels, rather than being an established outcome of the current decline.

Key Takeaways

Silver has dropped ~2.8% to 56.32, far underperforming gold’s 1.2% decline, as renewed Saudi infrastructure attacks keep Brent near $110 and revive inflation-tightening fears.
CFTC positioning shows managed-money net longs in silver futures already shrinking before the selloff (13,100 → 7,500 → 5,600 contracts from mid-September to October 13), which could limit further long liquidation.
The Gold/Silver ratio has climbed to 72.6, with a sustained break above 74.14 signaling further silver underperformance relative to gold.
Silver’s key technical level is 55.37: a firm break exposes the 54.85–54.77 support cluster, and a deeper daily break below 54.77 opens the door toward the psychological $50 level (49.78 projection).
Brent remains elevated near $110 on Saudi supply risk, but has yet to confirm a sustained break above 109.97—so a fresh jump in Fed hike expectations is not yet established.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

Gold fell more than 1% on ‌Thursday as rising oil prices stoked inflation concerns and reinforced expectations that interest rates could stay higher for longer, while investors awaited next week's Federal Reserve meeting for clues on the policy ​outlook.

Spot gold slid 1.3% to $4,085.29 per ounce by 0530 GMT, hitting its ​lowest since October 14. US gold futures for December delivery dropped 1.2% ⁠to $4,100.90.

If oil prices continue to rise, inflation expectations could increase, raising the likelihood ​of higher interest rates over the longer term and weighing on gold, said Kelvin ​Wong, a senior market analyst at OANDA.

Oil prices rose on Thursday as more attacks by the Houthis in Saudi Arabia prompted the US to order some diplomats and family members to leave its missions ​in the Kingdom.

Though stubborn inflation, largely driven by high energy prices, has bolstered the ​case for tighter monetary policy, Fed policymakers are expected to remain patient for now.

Traders see just a ‌15% ⁠chance of a rate hike at the Fed's October 27-28 policy meeting next week, but are pricing in a 91% likelihood of an increase in December, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.

Markets await next week's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, a key gauge closely ​watched by the central ​bank as it ⁠targets a 2% inflation rate.

Investors anticipate elevated interest rates at both the short and long ends of the curve, reducing gold's ​appeal by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding ​asset, Wong ⁠said.

Spot gold still targets the October 14 low of $4,073 per ounce, as suggested by a wedge. Resistance is at $4,135, a break above which could lead to a gain into ⁠the $4,150-$4,169 range, ​according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao.

Among other metals, ​spot silver dropped 3.3% to $56.05, platinum slid 2.2% to $1,593.05 and palladium fell 2.7% to $1,057.32.

The USD/JPY pair declines to a one-week low during the Asian session on Thursday, currently trading around the 157.70 region, closer to the lower boundary of a range held since the beginning of this month amid a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 12,407.10 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,561.63 it cost on Wednesday.

The price for Gold decreased to INR 144,714.00 per tola from INR 146,516.50 per tola a day earlier.

Unit measure

Gold Price in INR

1 Gram

12,407.10

10 Grams

124,073.90

Tola

144,714.00

Troy Ounce

385,904.20

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) comes under some renewed selling pressure on Thursday and drops to a fresh one-week low during the Asian session, with bears now looking to extend the downward trajectory further below the $4,100 mark.

EUR/JPY loses ground for the second successive day, trading around 177.50 during Asian hours on Thursday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within a descending channel pattern, suggesting an ongoing bearish bias.

The EUR/JPY cross is maintaining a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which now form a layered cap above price. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 41, suggesting subdued momentum that reinforces the idea of a corrective consolidation within a broader downside phase rather than an aggressive recovery.

The EUR/JPY cross may fall toward the initial support at the 12-month low of 175.70, which was recorded in November 2025, followed by the lower boundary of its descending channel around 175.10. Further declines below this confluence support zone would open the doors for the currency cross to navigate the region around the 15-month low at 169.72.

On the upside, the primary barrier lies at the nine-day EMA of 177.52, followed by the upper boundary of the descending channel near 178.80. Further resistance lies at the 50-day EMA of 179.74. A move above this confluence resistance zone would cause a bullish reversal, supporting the EUR/JPY cross to explore the area around the all-time high of 187.95, reached on April 17.

EUR/JPY: Daily ChartHimino flags AI-driven inflation risks, keeping Yen bulls alertFXS Speechtracker scores this speech at 8.2, exactly in line with Himino’s historic average, underscoring a consistently firm tone as strong AI-related demand lifts capex and exports while underlying inflation nears the 2% target. The emphasis that underlying inflation is likely to align with the Bank of Japan goal, alongside rising medium- and long-term inflation expectations, reinforces a narrative that the disinflation phase is largely behind Japan.

Himino highlights that financial conditions remain accommodative, real interest rates are low, and bank lending is expanding rapidly, a combination that heightens concern about upside price risks. The warning that postponing policy changes could trigger inflation risks and damage the economy, coupled with the assertion that suitable monetary policy is needed to secure stable prices and sustainable growth, marks a clearly hawkish tilt that should support the Yen on expectations of a gradual normalization path.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Swiss Franc.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.17%-0.07%-0.22%-0.10%0.12%0.12%-0.20%EUR0.17%0.09%-0.05%0.07%0.27%0.28%-0.06%GBP0.07%-0.09%-0.13%-0.04%0.19%0.17%-0.14%JPY0.22%0.05%0.13%0.10%0.33%0.30%0.00%CAD0.10%-0.07%0.04%-0.10%0.23%0.25%-0.09%AUD-0.12%-0.27%-0.19%-0.33%-0.23%-0.02%-0.32%NZD-0.12%-0.28%-0.17%-0.30%-0.25%0.02%-0.29%CHF0.20%0.06%0.14%-0.00%0.09%0.32%0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).