EUR/USD trades near 1.1627 on Tuesday after a US jobs report that came in almost three times above forecast. The data supported the dollar and strengthened expectations of tighter Federal Reserve policy. Attention now shifts to the European Central Bank meeting on 10 September, where the rate increase is already fully priced in, and the guidance that follows will determine the euro's next move.
US jobs data put the Dollar back on the front footThe US labour market delivered its strongest month since March. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 162,000 in August against a market forecast of around 56,000. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, average hourly earnings rose 3.1% year-on-year, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised June and July higher by a combined 55,000, turning July's previously reported job loss into a gain.
Nonfarm payrolls measure how many paid jobs the US economy added during the month, excluding farm work. They provide one of the clearest monthly indications of how much room the Fed has to adjust interest rates.
A labour market this resilient takes the pressure off the Fed to support growth and leaves inflation as its main concern. After the release, money markets raised the probability of a September rate increase to around 58%, up from roughly 52% before the data. Higher expected US rates make dollar deposits more attractive, so the dollar gained ground and EUR/USD settled into a narrow range.
Why the ECB meeting matters more than the decision itselfAll 65 economists polled by Reuters expect a 25-basis-point increase in the deposit rate to 2.50%. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point, so 25 basis points equal 0.25%. Money markets are pricing in the same outcome with near-full certainty and expect the deposit rate to rise further, reaching around 3.00% by June 2027. That implies two more increases after this week.
When an outcome is fully priced in, the decision itself rarely moves the market. The euro will take its cue from the press conference. Eurozone inflation accelerated to 3.3% in August, driven largely by energy costs, and Christine Lagarde has already identified the energy shock as an upside risk to prices.
That leaves one open question for Thursday. If Lagarde confirms that further tightening remains under discussion, the euro could gain support against a dollar that is also pricing in higher rates, with EUR/USD potentially testing 1.1655, the upper edge of its current range. If she delivers the rate increase and keeps every option open without committing to a path, the rate outlook remains in the dollar's favour, and the pair could move towards 1.1525.
German factory orders add a second layerNew orders in German manufacturing rose 2.5% in July after an upwardly revised 3.7% increase in June. The market expected 0.3%, and this was the third consecutive monthly increase.
The detail matters for anyone trading the euro. Excluding large-scale contracts, orders fell 1.4% from June. Domestic orders jumped 9.1% while foreign orders fell 2.1%, with demand from outside the euro area down 10.1% and demand from inside the bloc up 12.1%. Most of the headline strength came from shipbuilding, rail and aircraft contracts.
German industry is recovering, but that recovery currently relies on a small number of large contracts and on demand from within Europe. For the ECB, this supports the case that the economy can absorb higher rates.
EUR/USD technical analysis
On the four-hour chart, EUR/USD is building a consolidation range around 1.1620. An upward move towards 1.1655 remains on the table, with a decline towards 1.1525 seen as the following stage.
The MACD indicator supports this reading. MACD compares two moving averages of price and shows whether momentum is building or fading. Its signal line sits above zero and points firmly upwards, reflecting bullish momentum with room for the move higher to continue in the near term.
On the hourly chart, the market has completed a downward wave to 1.1620. The pair is now consolidating above that level. The working scenario for today is another upward leg towards 1.1655.
The Stochastic oscillator supports this view. The Stochastic oscillator shows where the current price sits within its recent trading range. Its signal line is above 20 and points upwards towards 80, indicating that the move higher still has room to develop.
ConclusionEUR/USD enters the ECB week with the technical picture pointing towards 1.1655 in the near term, while the fundamental picture stays split between two central banks moving in the same direction. The rate increase to 2.50% is already priced in, so the euro's next move depends on the guidance that follows.
While the pair holds above 1.1620, the upside scenario remains the working one, with 1.1525 the level to watch further out should the move higher fail to hold. The US inflation report due next week will be the next catalyst on the dollar side of the pair, so the levels set this week are likely to be tested again quickly. Traders who want to follow the reaction in real time can place both levels on the chart in advance and watch how EUR/USD behaves around them during the decision.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 110.75 during the early European trading hours on Tuesday. A slew of hawkish comments from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers have cemented views that the BoJ will raise interest rates this month, supporting the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Australian Dollar (AUD).
BoJ board member Hajime Takata said last week that the central bank could take a more aggressive approach than expected. He said a 25-basis-point hike “is not necessarily set in stone,” and that generally speaking, back-to-back rate hikes would be a possibility, too.
The Japanese central bank is expected to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 1.25% at its upcoming policy meeting on September 17–18.
BoJ hawkish signals keep Yen bulls on the front footAnalysts at MUFG highlight that the recent shift in tone from the BoJ was underscored by policy board member Hajime Takata, who told local business leaders on 2 September that the Bank needed to "conduct rate hikes nimbly" and should not be "bound by particular intervals or ranges anticipated in the markets." MUFG notes that, even though Takata subsequently pushed back against the prospect of a larger move at the upcoming meeting, his remarks have nevertheless encouraged investors to contemplate not only a faster pace of tightening but also the possibility of "larger individual moves" from the BoJ.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY remains bearish below the key 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY remains under a dense band of resistance, with price lodged below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and even the Bollinger Bands’ (20, 2) lower band, reinforcing a capped, bearish near-term tone. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 32.65 hovers just above oversold territory, suggesting downside momentum is still dominant but increasingly stretched.
On the topside, the immediate resistance level emerges at the August 10 low of 111.63. The key hurdle to watch is in the 113.15-113.25 zone, representing the the 100-day SMA and the Bollinger midline. Beyond that, the upper Bollinger band at roughly 115.35 marks a more distant barrier.
On the flip slide, the 110.00 psychological level acts as an initial support level for the cross. Further south, the next downside target to watch is the August 3 low of 109.24.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The AUD/USD pair holds steady above the 0.7200 mark through the Asian session on Tuesday, consolidating its recent strong move up to its highest level since May 14 touched the previous day. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop and the technical setup favor bullish traders, suggesting that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside.
Expectations for another interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) later this month continue to underpin the Australian Dollar (AUD). The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, attracts some follow-through selling amid a broadly rallying Japanese Yen (JPY) and turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the AUD/USD pair. Traders, however, refrain from placing fresh directional bets and keenly await this week's release of the latest US inflation figures.
From a technical perspective, the recent close above the 0.7200 mark comes on top of a strong rally from the very important 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), tested in June, and validates the near-term constructive outlook. Furthermore, momentum indicators stay supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering in bullish territory just shy of overbought and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line retaining a small positive spread.
This, in turn, hints that the upside pressure is firm but increasingly mature. Hence, any corrective pullback towards the 0.7145 immediate support is more likely to be bought into and remain limited. A convincing break below, however, might prompt some technical selling and drag the AUD/USD pair below the 0.7100 mark. However, the 200-day SMA around 0.6992 stands out as the key medium-term reference support. As long as spot prices hold above this longer-term gauge, the broader bias remains skewed to further gains even if near-term consolidation or corrective swings emerge.
On the top side, the multi-year peak, at 0.7272, is the next notable resistance, and a daily close above this hurdle would open the way for further gains.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
AUD/USD daily chart
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.10%-0.15%-1.60%-0.28%-0.25%0.31%-0.01%EUR0.10%-0.05%-1.48%-0.17%-0.13%0.40%0.09%GBP0.15%0.05%-1.54%-0.12%-0.08%0.45%0.15%JPY1.60%1.48%1.54%1.41%1.43%1.96%1.65%CAD0.28%0.17%0.12%-1.41%0.08%0.57%0.27%AUD0.25%0.13%0.08%-1.43%-0.08%0.53%0.24%NZD-0.31%-0.40%-0.45%-1.96%-0.57%-0.53%-0.31%CHF0.01%-0.09%-0.15%-1.65%-0.27%-0.24%0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/JPY loses ground for the second consecutive day, trading around 178.40 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Technical analysis of the daily chart indicates the currency cross remains within the descending channel pattern, signalling a bearish bias.
The EUR/JPY cross maintains a bearish near-term tone as it remains below both the nine- and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The pair is extending its pullback from recent highs, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 23.09 sits in oversold territory, hinting that while downside momentum is stretched, sellers still dominate below the clustered EMAs.
The EUR/JPY cross is positioned slightly above the newly formed support level at the lower boundary of the descending channel around 177.70. A break below the channel would strengthen the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the cross as it navigates the region around the 10-month low of 175.70, recorded in November 2025.
On the upside, the EUR/JPY cross could rebound toward the nine-day EMA of 182.00, followed by the 50-day EMA of 184.13. Further resistance lies at the upper boundary of the descending channel around 185.70, followed by the all-time high of 187.95 set on April 17.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.04%0.00%-0.54%-0.15%0.02%0.27%-0.07%EUR0.04%0.05%-0.52%-0.09%0.06%0.32%-0.03%GBP-0.01%-0.05%-0.56%-0.15%0.01%0.28%-0.07%JPY0.54%0.52%0.56%0.42%0.59%0.86%0.51%CAD0.15%0.09%0.15%-0.42%0.16%0.43%0.09%AUD-0.02%-0.06%-0.01%-0.59%-0.16%0.27%-0.08%NZD-0.27%-0.32%-0.28%-0.86%-0.43%-0.27%-0.34%CHF0.07%0.03%0.07%-0.51%-0.09%0.08%0.34% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,921.62 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,869.37 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 104,056.90 per tola from PHP 103,450.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,921.62
10 Grams
89,215.74
Tola
104,056.90
Troy Ounce
277,489.70
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 535.29 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 532.76 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,243.56 per tola from SAR 6,214.04 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
535.29
10 Grams
5,352.94
Tola
6,243.56
Troy Ounce
16,649.75
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 523.68 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 521.07 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 6,108.06 per tola from AED 6,077.69 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
523.68
10 Grams
5,236.84
Tola
6,108.06
Troy Ounce
16,288.12
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The GBP/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the previous day's modest gains and oscillates in a range below mid-1.3500s during the Asian session on Tuesday. The downside, however, remains cushioned as the US Dollar (USD) selling remains unabated on the back of a broadly firmer Japanese Yen (JPY).
That said, firming US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, along with geopolitical uncertainties stemming from escalating US-Iran tensions, act as a tailwind for the USD and cap the GBP/USD pair. Traders also seem hesitant ahead of this week's release of the monthly UK GDP and the latest US inflation figures.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD pair holds a mild bullish bias above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart. Moreover, spot prices trade above a dense Fibonacci support stack led by the 38.2% retracement level of the June-August upswing, at 1.3471. Adding to this, a modestly positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering around 54 hint that upside momentum is constructive but not yet aggressive.
Meanwhile, the 23.6% retracement at 1.3549 sits just overhead as the next cap. A sustained strength higher would open the way toward further recovery in the broader range. On the downside, initial support is provided by the 200-period SMA at 1.3498, followed by the 38.2% retracement at 1.3471, with deeper floors at the 50.0% level near 1.3408 and the 61.8% retracement around 1.3344 if selling pressure intensifies.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Pound Sterling FAQs The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,601.85 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 39,392.19 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 461,932.20 per tola from PKR 459,462.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,601.85
10 Grams
396,039.00
Tola
461,932.20
Troy Ounce
1,231,756.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 577.89 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 575.27 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,740.38 per tola from MYR 6,709.78 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
577.89
10 Grams
5,778.90
Tola
6,740.38
Troy Ounce
17,974.36
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a two-day losing streak as the recent US Dollar (USD) pullback from a three-week high gains momentum amid the rallying Japanese Yen (JPY). However, hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, offer some support to the safe-haven buck and cap the non-yielding bullion. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for the release of the latest US inflation figures, due later this week.
The US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Thursday and will be followed by the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. The crucial data will be looked at for more cues about the Fed's policy path amid inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices. The outlook, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the Gold price. Meanwhile, traders ramped up bets for a Fed rate hike later this month after the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed that job growth accelerated in August.
USD support seen as markets await key US CPIStrategists at OCBC describe the latest US payrolls report as "supportive of the USD at the margin, but not sufficient on its own to drive a sustained leg higher." They argue that the stronger jobs data "reinforces the resilience of the US economy and should keep the risk of Fed tightening alive, which in turn may restrain USD downside." However, with "wage pressures still contained," OCBC expects markets will "require firmer inflation evidence before pricing a Sept hike with greater conviction." In this context, they note that "focus therefore shifts to this week’s CPI, where an upside surprise could provide the catalyst for renewed USD strength, while a softer print would likely keep price action more two-way."
Furthermore, the widening US-Iran confrontation keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should limit losses for the safe-haven Greenback. In the latest development surrounding the Middle East crisis, Iran threatened to retaliate against any new US attacks on its assets, warning that energy infrastructure across the Gulf was vulnerable. Adding to this, Iran’s security chief, Mohsen Rezaei, said that Tehran is preparing to enforce a full blockade around the Strait of Hormuz in response to economic sanctions, intensifying fears of a prolonged disruption to oil supplies.
Investors remain worried that elevated energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures, underpinning prospects for Fed policy tightening. This, in turn, backs the case for the emergence of USD dip-buying and warrants caution for XAU/USD bulls. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any meaningful appreciating move for the Gold price and an extension of the recovery from an over one-month low, touched last week.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisThe precious metal holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at roughly $4,288 and above a dense Fibonacci support band, keeping the near-term bias constructive despite fading momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 52 suggests a neutral-to-mildly positive tone. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero with a negative reading around -24 hints at waning upside pressure after the recent pullback.
The mixed technical setup suggests that the Gold price could face first resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the June-August upswing, around $4,523. This is followed by the recent swing-high zone anchored by the upper Fibonacci reference near $4,697.36, where a break would reopen the path for a renewed leg higher. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement near $4,415, followed by the 50.0% level at about $4,328 and the 61.8% retracement around $4,241.94, with the 200-day EMA near $4,288 adding broader trend backing just below the market.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.10%-0.13%-1.72%-0.21%-0.21%0.40%0.03%EUR0.10%-0.02%-1.60%-0.11%-0.09%0.51%0.13%GBP0.13%0.02%-1.68%-0.07%-0.06%0.54%0.16%JPY1.72%1.60%1.68%1.62%1.61%2.21%1.82%CAD0.21%0.11%0.07%-1.62%0.05%0.61%0.23%AUD0.21%0.09%0.06%-1.61%-0.05%0.60%0.22%NZD-0.40%-0.51%-0.54%-2.21%-0.61%-0.60%-0.38%CHF-0.03%-0.13%-0.16%-1.82%-0.23%-0.22%0.38% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver price (XAG/USD) is up 1.25% to near $67.00 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) and United States (US) Treasury Yields come under pressure, with investors shifting their focus to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data of August scheduled for Friday.
As of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 98.83 even after recovering some of its early losses. 10-year US Treasury Yields are down 0.17% to near 4.77%.
Lower US bond yields result in an improvement in the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Investors will pay close attention to the US CPI data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
TD Securities sees core inflation contained even as headline CPI firmsAccording to TD Securities, the August CPI report is likely to show that “underlying inflation stayed under control,” with core prices “rising 0.19% m/m (2.3% y/y).” The bank expects the “services segment” to be the main driver of gains, while “core goods prices likely acted as a drag by posting a modest m/m drop.”
In contrast, TD looks for “headline CPI” to post “a stronger 0.37% m/m (3.4% y/y) due to rising energy prices and a slight pickup in food inflation.” The bank also cautions that “risks to our forecasts” are “skewed to the upside,” noting that its projections assume “a number of large price declines in tariff-exposed goods categories, including apparel and household goods.”
Before the US consumer inflation data, investors will focus on the Producer Price Index (PPI) data of August, which will be released on Thursday.
Silver Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.97. The pair holds a constructive near-term bias as price remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $66.49, suggesting the recent pullback is being supported rather than reversed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 55 keeps a mildly positive tone, hinting that bullish momentum is still intact without yet pushing into overbought territory.
On the downside, initial support is aligned with the nine-day EMA at $66.49, where a daily close below would hint at a deeper consolidation toward lower levels not yet defined by the present indicators. Looking up, the August high at $71.12 could act as a key hurdle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
(This story was corrected at 04:47 GMT on Tuesday to say in the title that Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD jumps to near $67, not $37)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,492.28 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,428.30 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 157,370.30 per tola from INR 156,625.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,492.28
10 Grams
134,921.80
Tola
157,370.30
Troy Ounce
419,663.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The Dollar index has declined below 99 and looks bearish for the near term with the Euro likely to head towards 1.17. USDJPY and EURJPY have plunged yet again and looks strongly bearish towards 150-148 and 175/170. EURINR could have limited upside to 110-110.50. Aussie and Pound lookk bullish. USDCNY has dipped as expected and can test 6.70. USDINR can continue to trade within 94.80-94.25 range for a while with some possibility of testing 94.
The US Treasury Yields remain stable in the early Asian session. The US markets were closed yesterday. The outlook remains bullish. The Treasury Yields can rise more from here. The German Yields have risen well. A follow-through rise from here can take them further higher in the coming days. View is bullish. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. As mentioned yesterday, a narrow range is possible for some time before we get more rise eventually.
Dow remains range-bound between 52500-54000, while DAX can rise towards 26500. Nifty has slipped below 23800, keeping the downside risk open towards 23600-23500. Nikkei remains positive and can rise towards 67000-68000. Shanghai is likely to continue trading within the 3850-4000 range while below 4000.
Brent and WTI continue to move higher in line with our expectations and can rise towards $100 and $95 respectively. Gold remains positive above $4300 and can rise towards $4600. Silver needs a sustained break above $70 for a move towards $75-$80. Copper is testing the key $6.80 resistance, with a break above it opening the way towards $6.90-$7.00, while a failure could lead to a dip towards $6.70-$6.60. Natural Gas needs to sustain above $3.00 for a rise towards $3.25-$3.50.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
TL;DR: Strong Japanese GDP and wage data have pushed a September BoJ hike to near-certainty, and while AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY are both falling on Yen strength, the underlying stories differ — Australia’s hawkish RBA narrative is meeting domestic resistance, while New Zealand’s tightening path has failed to convince markets it will extend.
Strong Japan Data Gives the Yen Rally Fresh Fuel The Yen’s advance accelerated on Tuesday as another round of stronger Japanese data reinforced expectations for a September BoJ hike and shifted attention toward how quickly tightening could continue afterward. Revised Q2 GDP showed the economy expanding 0.4% q/q, up from the preliminary 0.3%, while annualized growth was upgraded from 1.1% to 1.4%. Capital expenditure was also revised to a smaller 0.9% decline from the initially reported 1.2% fall. Private consumption was flat, but the overall picture was one of an economy holding up well enough to reduce the case for delaying normalization.
The wage data were more decisive. Nominal cash earnings accelerated from a revised 4.0% to 4.7% y/y in July, the strongest increase since 1997 and well above expectations around 3.8–3.9%. Real wages rose 2.4%, base pay increased 4.1%, and a cleaner full-time measure excluding bonuses, overtime, and sampling distortions still gained 2.7%. The breadth of the improvement makes the report harder to dismiss as a summer-bonus distortion and strengthens the wage side of the BoJ’s normalization case.
Markets have responded accordingly. A September hike to 1.25% is now priced at around 98%, while another increase to 1.50% by January is effectively fully discounted. Longer-dated pricing points to roughly 3.7 cumulative hikes by July 2027, making the debate less about whether the BoJ moves next week and more about the pace of what comes afterward.
September Is Nearly Settled. The Next Hike Is the Bigger Question. That shift is also appearing in policy commentary. Takuji Aida, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and member of a key government economic panel, said on Monday that the BoJ is likely to raise rates in September and continue at roughly a quarterly pace through January 2027 before slowing the cadence.
The significance isn’t simply that Aida expects another hike. He had previously seen the next move coming in January 2027 and has now brought that forecast forward to September. Coming from an adviser associated with an administration traditionally more tolerant of accommodative policy and a weaker Yen, the shift reinforces the impression that the hurdle for near-term tightening has fallen.
The next test is whether markets are right to extrapolate that into a sustained cycle. Japan’s wage data provide stronger support for normalization, but private consumption remains flat and household spending has been weak. Those demand indicators will matter increasingly once September is delivered. For now, however, the relative-rate story is moving decisively in the Yen’s favor.
AUD/JPY: Australia’s Hawkish Story Runs Into Domestic Weakness AUD/JPY is being hit from both directions. Japan has just delivered stronger growth and wage data that reinforce the BoJ’s tightening case. Australia, meanwhile, produced a pair of releases showing how uncomfortable its own economy is becoming with the possibility of higher rates.
NAB Business Conditions fell from 4 to -1 in August, turning negative for the first time in six years. Profitability collapsed from 1 to -9, its weakest post-COVID reading, as purchase-cost growth of 2.3% q/q continued to outrun product-price growth of just 0.8%. Trading conditions weakened as well, although employment held comparatively firm.
Consumer data told a similar story. Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment dropped 5.2% from 88.9 to 84.4 in September, with households becoming markedly more concerned about future borrowing costs. The Mortgage Rate Expectations Index rose from 158.8 to 170.4, while 64% of consumers — and around 73% of mortgage holders — now expect mortgage rates to rise over the coming year.
That doesn’t mean the RBA tightening story has disappeared. July inflation was strong enough to keep another hike live, and Westpac itself says the probability of a future move has increased. But Westpac still expects the RBA to hold at the September 28–29 meeting, arguing one monthly inflation print is insufficient to justify an immediate response.
The important point for AUD/JPY is therefore not that Australia has suddenly become dovish. It’s that the RBA’s hawkish narrative is meeting growing domestic resistance just as the BoJ’s hawkish narrative is gaining credibility.
ActionForex’s Technical View on AUD/JPY: Approaching a Major Breakdown Point The technical structure reflects that shift. AUD/JPY’s decline from 114.95 has accelerated, and the pair is now approaching 109.25, an important structural support level. The daily MACD had already developed bearish divergence, raising the possibility that 114.95 marked a medium-term top.
A firm break of 109.25 would strengthen the case that AUD/JPY is correcting the larger advance from 86.03, opening the way toward the 38.2% retracement at 103.90.
Near-term downside could nevertheless become stretched. The four-hour RSI is deeply oversold and the daily RSI is close to 30, leaving room for an initial rebound from 109.25 even if the larger structure has turned lower. Such a recovery wouldn’t materially change the near-term bearish bias while 112.78 resistance holds, with the 55-day EMA just above around 112.98.
NZD/JPY: A Different Problem, and a More Advanced Breakdown NZD/JPY is weaker for a different reason. The RBNZ raised rates for a second consecutive meeting last week, but markets have remained reluctant to extrapolate that action into a much faster tightening path. That leaves the Kiwi with a familiar problem: policy is already tightening, yet investors aren’t becoming progressively more hawkish about what follows.
There’s no equivalent same-day domestic shock behind NZD’s weakness. Instead, this has been a slower repricing over several sessions. Against a Yen whose expected tightening path is moving in the opposite direction, that divergence is becoming costly.
The difference is visible technically as well. NZD/JPY has already broken 91.02, the kind of structural support AUD/JPY is only now approaching at 109.25.
ActionForex’s Technical View on NZD/JPY: Targeting 89.44 After Breaking 91.02 The decline from 95.42 is now seen as correcting the broader rise from 79.79, with daily MACD bearish divergence adding to the medium-term topping risk.
The immediate focus is on the 38.2% retracement of 79.79–95.42, at 89.44. A decisive break there would deepen the correction and target the 61.8% retracement around 85.76, just above the larger structural support at 85.33.
As with AUD/JPY, short-term oversold conditions could generate rebounds. The daily RSI is already deeply depressed and four-hour momentum is stretched. But while 92.28 resistance holds, recoveries would still look corrective within a broader bearish structure.
Japan Is Starting to Win the Relative-Rates Argument The common force behind both crosses is Yen strength, but the Australian and New Zealand sides shouldn’t be treated as interchangeable. AUD/JPY is falling because the BoJ tightening case is strengthening at the same time Australia’s hawkish RBA story is encountering evidence of softer household demand and squeezed business margins. NZD/JPY is further advanced because markets have been reluctant to extend the RBNZ tightening path even after consecutive rate increases.
That distinction matters because the larger shift isn’t simply toward risk aversion. For years, high-beta Yen crosses benefited from the assumption that almost every other major central bank offered a more credible tightening path than the BoJ. That assumption is now being challenged from both directions.
Japanese wages are accelerating, growth has been revised higher, and markets are pricing a sustained BoJ cycle. At the same time, the RBA’s tightening case is colliding with increasingly fragile domestic conditions, while the RBNZ has yet to convince markets that consecutive hikes will turn into a substantially longer campaign.
The BoJ decision on September 17–18 is therefore only the first confirmation point. The bigger question is whether Japan’s data continue to validate the aggressive tightening path now embedded beyond September. For AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, that distinction is already showing up in price: one is approaching a major breakdown; the other has already made it.
Key Takeaways Japan’s Q2 GDP was revised up to 1.4% annualized and wages jumped to 4.7% y/y, the strongest since 1997, pushing a September BoJ hike to a near-certain 98% probability. AUD/JPY is falling because Australia’s hawkish RBA case is colliding with weakening business conditions and consumer sentiment, even as the BoJ case strengthens. NZD/JPY is more advanced in its breakdown because markets haven’t extended the RBNZ’s two consecutive hikes into a longer expected tightening cycle. AUD/JPY is approaching 109.25 structural support, with a break opening 103.90; NZD/JPY has already broken 91.02 and is targeting 89.44 and then 85.76. The broader shift challenges a long-standing assumption that other central banks are more credible tightening stories than the BoJ, now being tested from both the Australian and New Zealand sides. Related Reading Japan Wages Rise 4.7%, Strong Enough for BoJ Rate Hikes Australian NAB Business Conditions Turn Negative as Cost Squeeze Hits Profits Australian Consumers Sentiment Slumps to 84.4 as Rate Fears Rise, Westpac Sees September RBA Pause
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Gold has snapped a two-day losing streak early Tuesday, staging a decent comeback toward $4,450 after finding strong buyers below the $4,400 level.
Gold looks north as Japanese Yen keeps surgingGold is looking to resume its recovery from four-week lows of $4,283 hit last week, capitalizing on sustained US Dollar weakness across the board.
The US Dollar sits at two-week lows against its six major peers, as the ongoing USD/JPY sell-off counters hawkish bets around the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook and Iran’s retaliation warnings.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) extends its rally to seven-month highs versus the Greenback after Japan’s wage growth data and second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revision bolstered expectations for a faster pace of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) tightening.
This aggressively hawkish BoJ repricing continues to weigh on the USD/JPY pair and the USD, acting as a tailwind for the bright metal.
However, it remains to be seen if Gold sustains its recovery momentum, as Oil prices remain elevated at seven-week highs, keeping inflation concerns and Fed rate hike bets alive.
The black gold stays underpinned by fresh Iranian threats in the Persian Gulf.
Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf warned after the US and Iran traded strikes on shipping over the weekend, "strike our assets, and you get struck."
On Tuesday, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Mohsen Rezaei, reissued dual economic and military threats on X.
Later in the day, Gold could experience volatility as US traders return after the extended weekend and react to the geopolitical headlines, while repositioning ahead of Friday’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release, which could seal in a rate hike next week.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,425.55, holding a mild bullish bias as it sits above the 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at roughly $4,255.70 and $4,347.13, respectively, while remaining capped by the 21-day SMA near $4,465.07. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 52 suggests modest positive momentum, hinting that buyers retain the upper hand so long as price holds over the underlying moving-average support band.
On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 21-day SMA around $4,465.07, with the longer-term 200-day SMA higher up near $4,536.87 acting as a subsequent barrier if bulls extend the advance. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,347.13, ahead of the deeper 50-day SMA support zone around $4,255.70, where a break would undermine the current constructive tone and expose a more pronounced corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold rally shifts from shock-driven spike to structural convictionAnalysts at Societe Generale argue that Gold has now "entered a new phase of its 2026 bull run," characterised less by short-term speculative flows and more by "broad-based, structural conviction across every category of market participant." What initially "began as a geopolitical shock" has, in their view, "evolved over the following months into something far more durable": a "synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure" that "now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike." This alignment across physical holdings, futures positioning and options strategies underpins their assessment that the current Gold uptrend is being driven by multiple, mutually reinforcing demand channels rather than transient momentum alone.
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
Gold started a downside correction from $4,700 and tested the $4,280 support. A bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,480 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil remained elevated and might continue to rise toward $95.00 or $100.00. EUR/USD started a recovery wave after it found support near 1.1565. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold failed to surpass $4,700 and corrected gains against the US Dollar. The price dipped below $4,500 before the bulls appeared near $4,280.
The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price formed a lot at $4,282 and recently attempted a recovery wave. The price climbed above $4,400 and $4,450. The price even spiked above $4,480, the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours), and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $4,696 swing high to the $4,2852 low.
On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,465. The next major resistance might be $4,480. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,480.
A clear move above $4,480 could open the door for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,565 or even $4,580. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,680 level.
If there is a fresh decline, the price could test the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours) at $4,320. The first major support sits at $4,300. The next support could be $4,280, below which the price might slide to $4,220. The main support sits at $4,20. Any more losses might call for a test of $4,050 or even $4,020 in the coming days.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price could stay in a positive zone, and the bulls might aim for a larger move to test $100.00.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
US ADP Employment Change 4-week Average- Forecast 10K, versus 11.75K previous. BoE Monetary Policy Report Hearings. ECB’s Elderson speech.
Titan FXhttp://titanfx.com
Titan FX is a technology driven online ECN forex and commodities broker that provides traders with next generation trading conditions, institutional grade spreads, fast trade execution, deep top tier liquidity and the security of financial registration and oversight.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 6.7804 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7795 and 6.7104 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
AUD/USD breaks above 0.7200 to multi-month highs
Yen strength helps soften the US dollar
Aussie far more responsive to upside catalysts
US CPI looms as the key breakout test
AUD/USD has pushed firmly above the .7200 level to trade at its highest since early May, continuing to benefit from buoyant risk appetite, hawkish RBA pricing and continued weakness in the US dollar, particularly against Asian currency names. With the technicals aligning with the fundamentals, the topside break will have bulls eyeing a potential retest of the year-to-date highs in the days ahead.
Upside Catalysts Getting More Traction
The matrix below reveals the Aussie’s consistent relationship with risk appetite across short, medium and longer-term timeframes. Correlations with S&P 500 futures stand at +0.88 over five days, +0.54 over 20 days and +0.60 over 60 days, while the relationship with Nasdaq futures sits at +0.95, +0.56 and +0.64 respectively. VIX and VXN show similarly consistent inverse relationships across all three periods.
Source: TradingView
More recently, however, there has been a rapid increase in the inverse correlation with US yields across the front end and belly of the curve. The five-day correlation with US two-year yields has strengthened to -0.94, while the relationship with US 10-year yields stands at -0.97, coinciding with a period where hawkish repricing has generally picked up, albeit not uniformly.
What has really stood out recently is the magnitude of the Aussie’s reaction to shifts in those markets. When US yields have risen and risk appetite has deteriorated, pullbacks in AUD/USD have been shallow. In contrast, when yields have eased and risk appetite has picked up, the upside response has tended to be considerably larger.
Yen Strength Adds to Dollar Pressure
When trying to assess the Aussie’s asymmetric reaction function, you can’t help but notice what’s been going on in USD/JPY, which has continued to unwind following the record intervention episode seen in late July and early August, along with potential intervention at the start of this month. That has sent the yen to its strongest level against the US dollar since February this year.
That, in turn, is helping other Asian currencies strengthen against the USD, perhaps explaining why the Aussie has been far more sensitive to minor pullbacks in US yields and subsequent improvements in risk appetite than it has been to moves in the opposite direction over the recent period.
On Monday, we saw another abrupt move lower in USD/JPY, which helped the Aussie push cleanly above the 0.7200 level. While there were headlines about potential GPIF repatriation flows, carry-trade unwinds and continued chatter around hawkish BOJ repricing, which has now seen more than three hikes priced into the curve by the middle of next year, including a strong possibility of two this year, none of those factors could be described as anything remotely new, having been known for weeks beforehand.
Instead, the move had all the usual hallmarks of what we saw during the previous intervention episode, with another big dump occurring in early European trade. Regardless of what factor it was, be it one or many, as USD/JPY unwound, the Aussie perked up on what was an otherwise quiet session.
US Inflation Data Looms Large
Source: TradingView
There’s little in the US calendar today that screams we’ll see a major shift in Fed pricing and, therefore, the US yield curve. We also don’t know how risk appetite is going to behave, leaving the known knowns for the Aussie largely on the domestic side.
Rather than the NAB Business or Westpac Consumer Confidence surveys, which have rarely demonstrated the ability to dial up volatility in the Aussie, the more likely catalysts for movement come from RBA Chief Economist Sarah Hunter's fireside chat along with Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser's appearance on a prominent Australian TV show later in the session. With market pricing now around two in three for an RBA rate hike later this month, any nod towards that pricing or attempt to push back against it looms as the most likely candidate to spark near-term volatility in the Aussie.
Of course, the key event not only for AUD/USD but broader markets arrives later in the week, with US PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday. The latter in particular looms as the key market catalyst that could determine whether the Aussie’s break higher morphs into a breakout or an abrupt reversal.
Technicals Favour Bullish Bias
Source: TradingView
As seen on the daily chart, AUD/USD sits above its key medium and long-term moving averages, all of which carry a positive slope. It remains in a strong uptrend and, while we haven’t seen a higher high set in RSI 14 yet, it still sits at levels that suggest upside momentum is starting to rebuild, a message confirmed by MACD, which remains above the signal line in positive territory.
Be it the price action or the oscillators, the backdrop favours longs over shorts, with the move above 0.7200 opening the door for fresh long positions to be established. Entry could be placed above the level with a tight stop beneath for protection, targeting either the year-to-date high of 0.7276 or the June 2022 high of 0.7283. Both screen as potential targets.
A break above the latter would see the pair enter something of an air pocket, with very little resistance evident until 0.7418, marking the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the pandemic low-high move.
If AUD/USD were to reverse back beneath 0.7200, downside levels to watch include the uptrend running from the low set in late July, found today just above 0.7150, along with 0.7130 and 0.7080, where the 100-day moving average is also found.
AUD/USD has pushed firmly above the .7200 level to trade at its highest since early May, continuing to benefit from buoyant risk appetite, hawkish RBA pricing and continued weakness in the US dollar, particularly against Asian currency names. With the technicals aligning with the fundamentals, the topside break will have bulls eyeing a potential retest of the year-to-date highs in the days ahead.
Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower to near $4,410 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal extends the decline as a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for August bolsters expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike this month.
Data last week showed that US NFP climbed by 162K in August, versus an upwardly revised rise of 21K prior, above the market consensus of 56K. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate in the US held steady at 4.1% during the same period.
Traders see a 60% odds of an interest rate hike at the Fed's policy meeting next week, compared with a probability of 50% before the jobs data was released on Friday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
"Gold and silver have moved in the opposite direction to energy prices, extending their declines after Friday’s strong U.S. jobs report lifted bond yields and reinforced expectations of a Fed rate hike on 16 September," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
Traders will take more cues from the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data later this week. Any signs of hotter inflation in the US would reinforce a September hike. This, in turn, could underpin the US Dollar (USD) and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price. A cooler reading would strengthen the case for a rate hold and drag the Greenback lower.
Gold slips on US data even as structural bull run deepensAnalysts at Societe Generale argue that Gold has now “entered a new phase of its 2026 bull run,” one they characterise as being “defined less by speculative momentum and more by broad-based, structural conviction across every category of market participant.” What initially “began as a geopolitical shock” has, in their view, “evolved over the following months into something far more durable: a synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure that now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike.”
At the same time, strategists at UOB Group highlight that near-term price action remains sensitive to macro data, noting that Gold “fell more than 0.9% last Fri to $4429.98/oz for a weekly loss after stronger-than-expected US jobs data boosted expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates as soon as this month, denting the non-yielding bullion’s appeal.”
Technical Analysis: Gold price retains a neutral tone in the near termIn the daily chart, XAU/USD sits between the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 20-day SMA, leaving the metal supported by the longer-term average but capped by the shorter-term trend line overhead. The latest Bollinger Bands (20, 2) show spot holding comfortably above the lower band while failing to challenge the upper band, reinforcing a mid-range consolidation tone. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 51 is neutral, hinting at balanced momentum rather than a clear directional push.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns with the 20-day SMA and Bollinger middle band near $4,465, with a subsequent barrier at the upper Bollinger band around $4,675 if buyers regain control. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,350, ahead of stronger demand into the lower Bollinger band around $4,260, where a break would open the door to a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 1h chart, U.S. Dollar / Swiss Franc is interacting with the 0.786 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is breaking this Resistance Arc, suggesting the potential for a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc.
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Bullish
Preferred Scenario
Advance Toward the Next Resistance Arc
Primary Target Zone
0.8151
Scenario Invalidation
Sustained close below 0.8066
Current Arc Level
Resistance Arc (0.786)
Cycle Status
Testing Resistance Arc
Arc Integrity
Weakening
Market OutlookPrice is testing the 0.786 Resistance Arc, where continued buying pressure could result in a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc. A sustained breakout above the Resistance Arc would support continued movement toward the next Resistance Arc at 0.8151 (1 Arc / 100%).
Conversely, failure to achieve a sustained 1h close above the Resistance Arc would invalidate the bullish scenario and could shift the outlook toward the next Support Arc.
Spot silver daily chart shows larger trend. Source: TradingView 200-Day Average Remains Critical Another pattern unfolding is that the current advance from the July low represents the first pullback to test the 200-day moving average as resistance since silver broke below it in June. So far, resistance was seen during the advance two weeks ago. However, another upswing could develop, giving silver another opportunity to test that major long-term trend indicator. Even if the 200-day average is eventually reclaimed, further resistance remains likely during this initial approach to the average.
Channel Points Toward Higher Targets There are also early signs of a rising channel forming since the July bottom. Notably, silver could advance toward the $71.56 to $72.81 range while remaining inside the boundaries of the channel. Another potential upside target is the confluence of several indicators, including the upper downtrend line, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline at $76.16, and the upper boundary of the rising channel.
Weekly Signal Raises Stakes Finally, the weekly chart shows that a bullish doji hammer candlestick pattern formed last week. Therefore, a breakout above last week’s high of $67.47 would not only confirm renewed short-term strength but also provide a bullish reversal signal on the weekly chart. That means that a breakout above last week’s high of $67.47 noted above, will also provide a bullish reversal signal on the weekly chart. That should reinforce the bullish reversal setup signaled by the July support test and increase the significance of the current advance.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
The yen has continued to gain relevance during recent trading sessions and, over the last four trading days, USD/JPY has declined by nearly 3.6%, highlighting the strength currently being displayed by the Japanese currency against the U.S. dollar. This selling pressure has remained in place as markets continue digesting recent updates regarding Japan's currency interventions while also maintaining expectations of a more aggressive Bank of Japan. As long as these factors remain dominant, downside pressure on USD/JPY could continue to be an important feature of the market in the sessions ahead.
Is Intervention Risk Returning to Japan?
The most important short-term development behind the yen's recent strength relates to the latest confirmations regarding Japan's efforts to support its currency through direct intervention.
Recent data revealed that Japan carried out a record intervention program during August. International reserves declined by approximately $76.6 billion, marking the largest monthly drop seen in recent years and falling from July's peak of $1.287 trillion in total reserves. As a result, markets have interpreted a significant portion of this decline as being linked to yen-buying operations.
In addition, the Ministry of Finance confirmed that approximately $98.6 billion was deployed in currency interventions through August 26, including operations conducted in coordination with the United States. This information is particularly important because it confirms that intervention threats are no longer merely theoretical but are instead supported by figures directly released by the Japanese government.
The market's interpretation has been straightforward: Japanese authorities remain willing to sell dollars and buy yen aggressively whenever they believe the currency is under excessive pressure. Consequently, this confirmation has increased expectations that intervention could continue to play an important role in the months ahead, helping reinforce demand for the yen over the short term.
Alongside this situation, expectations of a more restrictive monetary policy from the Bank of Japan also remain important. Markets are currently assigning more than a 62% probability to a rate increase at the September 17 meeting, taking the benchmark rate from 1.00% to 1.25%. This reflects continued expectations that Japan will gradually move away from the ultra-low interest rate environment that has characterized its monetary policy for decades.
Source: centralbankwatch
Taking all of this into account, the outlook surrounding the yen appears to have changed significantly compared with previous weeks. Expectations of additional interventions and a more aggressive Bank of Japan are helping support interest in the Japanese currency. On one hand, markets continue to consider the possibility of renewed yen purchases by authorities. On the other, higher interest rates improve the relative attractiveness of yen-denominated investments. As long as these factors remain in place, downside pressure on USD/JPY could continue to be an important feature of the short-term outlook.
Could the U.S. Dollar Become a Threat?
At the same time, it is important to recognize that the main obstacle to further yen strength could remain the U.S. dollar. This issue gained importance after last Friday's NFP report, which delivered employment figures well above expectations and once again supported the possibility of a more aggressive Federal Reserve.
Although this dynamic has not yet translated into a significant recovery in the dollar itself, it could become a relevant factor over the coming weeks. For now, the DXY Index continues to trade around the 98-point area without registering meaningful declines and remains relatively stable near the lows established in recent weeks.
Part of this lack of reaction may be explained by the U.S. market holiday, which tends to reduce both activity and volatility across financial markets.
Source: TradingEconomics
The key point to monitor is whether expectations of a more hawkish Federal Reserve begin translating into a more meaningful recovery in the dollar. If that occurs, part of the yen's recent advance could begin to face resistance. Under such a scenario, USD/JPY could move into a more balanced trading environment, particularly if both central banks continue progressing toward more restrictive policy settings over the coming months.
USD/JPY Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
A Potential Trendline Begins to Take Shape: The recent decline in USD/JPY has led to the formation of a sequence of increasingly lower lows on the chart, a development that is beginning to shape a potential bearish trendline. As long as selling pressure remains dominant, this structure could continue to strengthen and become the most important technical pattern to monitor in the weeks ahead.
MACD: The MACD histogram continues to move below the neutral 0 line, indicating that the average strength of short-term moving averages remains tilted toward the downside. As long as this behavior persists, bearish momentum could continue dominating market activity.
RSI: A similar dynamic can be seen in the RSI, which continues to move lower below its neutral threshold. However, it is also worth noting that the indicator has now fallen below the 30 oversold level. This suggests that selling pressure may be becoming excessive in the short term and could create room for temporary bullish corrections over the coming sessions.
Key Levels:
158.235 – Key Resistance: This level coincides with the 200-period Simple Moving Average and represents the most important upside barrier on the chart. Price action returning toward this area could challenge the formation of the current bearish structure and favor a broader phase of consolidation during the weeks ahead.
155.928 – Nearby Barrier: This area corresponds to the nearest retracement zone on the chart and stands as the primary reference point for potential short-term bullish corrections.
152.441 – Key Support: A support area not seen since February and currently the most important downside barrier within the market. A move toward this level could reinforce the dominant bearish bias and further confirm the downtrend structure that has emerged during recent sessions.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Gold (XAU/USD) price dives over 0.40% on Monday following last Friday’s US jobs report, which ignited speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume its tightening cycle if inflation reaccelerates late this week, while the labor market remains solid. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,412 after reaching a daily high of $4,435.
XAU/USD falls as strong payrolls put inflation data center stageThe US Nonfarm Payrolls exceeded forecasts on Friday. August’s employment smashed forecasts of 56K, coming in at 162K, while July’s print was upwardly revised from -23K to 21K. The same data showed that the Unemployment Rate was steady at 4.1%.
Following the report, US Treasury yields rose, pushing the US Dollar higher. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the performance of the Greenback versus a basket of six currencies, is down 0.25% at 98.91.
The reaction was sparked by money markets raising the odds of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting to 60%, as reported by Prime Terminal.
Source: Prime TerminalOn Thursday, traders will eye the release of US producer-side data, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday.
On Saturday, the US conducted strikes on three Iranian tankers in response to the IRGC's ballistic missile attack on US Navy ships. Iran’s navy stated it targeted oil vessels moving through unauthorized routes in the Strait, along with three other US-flagged ships elsewhere.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump began to exert pressure on Washington’s Fed, saying that unless the Fed cut interest rates, something that he demanded previously, he would stop trading with countries with which the US has a deficit.
This week, the US economic schedule will feature the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), jobless claims data, the US Monthly Budget Statement, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for September.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold trapped within 100- and 200-day SMAsGold price has reversed course, though price action shifted more narrowly due to thin volume. As of writing, the yellow metal found support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,350, followed by the $4,500 level above.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is neutral to downward-trending, hinting that, in the near term, a leg down is on the cards.
Downwards, the first support is seen at $4,400. A decisive breakout will expose the 100-day SMA, with the next support at $4,300 and the September 2 swing low of $4,282.
On the upside, XAU/USD's next area of interest past $4,500 is the 200-day SMA at $4,535. A breach of the latter will expose $4,600, followed by the August 25 daily high at $4,697.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Buy JPY versus high-yield funding: long JPY (e.g., buy USD/JPY puts or simply long JPY against USD). The thesis is that a BoJ rate rise narrows the US–Japan yield gap and forces investors to unwind carry positions. With death-cross technicals, the unwind can accelerate into the macro prints.
Key Risk: US inflation stays hot and Fed stays hawkish enough to widen the yield gap again, pulling money back into USD carry and reversing JPY strength.
USD/JPY short
Sell USD/JPY (target 152.10). The yen is already in a strong uptrend, the pair broke below 154.97 support, and a death cross is forming—momentum favors further downside. The catalyst stack (BoJ hike odds ~98%, Japan GDP, then US PPI/CPI) keeps the market leaning toward tighter Japan policy and less carry demand.
Key Risk: BoJ disappoints (no hike or dovish guidance), causing USD/JPY to snap back above 154.97 and unwind the death-cross momentum.
The Japanese yen is in a strong uptrend this week, reaching its highest level since February this year. The USD/JPY pair dropped to 154.28, down by nearly 6% from its highest level this year. This retreat will be put to the test ahead of major macro events in the next two weeks.
The USD/JPY exchange rate has crashed hard in the past few days, helped by the rising optimism that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates next week. A Polymarket poll places the possibility that the bank will do that next week at 98%.
The bank is hiking rates for two main reasons. First, Japanese inflation remains stubbornly high in Japan’s standards. The most recent data showed that the country’s consumer price index (CPI) jumped 1.9% in July. More data revealed that inflation has continued rising in the past few months.
Second, the BoJ aims to narrow the spread with the United States, which has widened in the past few years. By doing that, the bank aims to make the Japanese yen more attractive to investors, ending the carry trade opportunity.
The USD/JPY pair has also dropped as investors predicted that the BoJ will intervene monetarily. It has already spent billions of dollars defending the yen in the past few months, including with the help of the United States.
The next key catalyst for the USD/JPY pair will be the upcoming Japan GDP numbers, which will come out on Tuesday. Economists expect the data to show that Japan’s economy expanded by 0.3% in the second quarter after growing by 0.5% in the previous quarter.
US inflation report
The next important catalyst for the USD/JPY exchange rate is the upcoming macro data from the United States, where the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the latest consumer and producer inflation report.
The first report to watch will be the PPI, which will come out on Thursday this week. Economists expect the report to show that the PPI rose from 0% in July to 0.4% in August, while the core figure rose from 0.2% to 0.3%.
After that, the US will release the consumer inflation number on Friday, shedding light on the state of inflation in the country. These numbers will provide more hints on what to expect from the Federal Reserve next week.
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has plunged in the past few days. It has moved from a high of 163.92 in July to a low of 154.3. It moved below the important support level of 154.97, its lowest level in May and August this year. Moving below that price confirmed the bearish breakout.
Most notably, the pair has formed a death cross pattern as the 50-day and 200-day weighted moving averages crossed each other. Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, potentially to the key support level of 152.10, its lowest level in January.
I’d note that the probability of a rate hike at the nearest Fed meeting has been moving back and forth in recent weeks, and it remains unclear whether Fed is ready to raise rates.
That said, the market believes that Fed will start the rate hike cycle this year. The probability of a stable federal funds rate until December is just 13.6%. In my opinion, such expectations are too optimistic as oil prices keep moving higher amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
WTI oil has recently climbed above the $92.00 level, while Brent oil moved towards $97.00. Recent reports suggest that Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan have been hit.
Rising oil prices will fuel inflation and leave Fed with little chance to keep rates unchanged in 2026. Higher rates are bearish for gold that pays no interest.
U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders focus on yen’s strong rally. It looks that BoJ continues to provide support to the yen. Weaker dollar is bullish for dollar-denominated commodities, but dollar’s move did not provide sufficient support to gold markets in today’s trading session.
Gold failed to settle above the resistance level at $4480 – $4500 and pulled back towards the $4400 level. In case gold manages to settle below $4400, it will head towards the nearest support at $4300 – $4320. A move below the $4300 level will open the way to the test of the 50 MA at $4247.
The Pound Sterling rises by over 0.23% amid thin trading conditions, as US markets remained closed for the Labour Day weekend, while the US-Iran conflict escalated, with both countries exchanging strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3541. Read More...
British Pound edges higher against US Dollar, UK Chancellor Healey’s speech eyedThe British Pound (GBP) is marginally higher at around 1.3525 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The GBP/USD pair ticks up as the US Dollar struggles to attract bids despite the United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) posting strong Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures for August. Read More...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Struggles near 1.3500 amid modest USD uptick; bears seem hesitantThe GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second straight day, though it lacks bearish conviction and trades around the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday. Moreover, spot prices hold above Friday's swing low, warranting some caution for bearish traders. Read More...
EUR/USD 070926 4h Chart EUR/USD gained some ground despite the disappointing Industrial Production report from Germany. The report showed that Industrial Production decreased by -1.1% month-over-month in July, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1%.
Traders also focused on the results of elections in Germany’s Saxony-Anhalt, which ended in a massive win for the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany. The AfD party reached its best result ever, raising worries about its potential success at a federal level.
AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt is a big deal for Germany’s political scene, but I do not think that it will have a material impact on the dynamics of the European currency in the near term. That said, political shifts in Europe are always worth watching.
In case EUR/USD stays above the 1.1615 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1685 – 1.1700 range.
USD/CHF trades with a downside bias on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) stays on the defensive, largely due to broad Japanese Yen (JPY) strength. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8091 after retreating from an intraday high of 0.8110. USD/JPY falls to a six-and-a-half-month low near 154.40, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers near a two-week low around 98.90.
The Greenback weakens despite escalating tensions in the Middle East, which are adding to inflation concerns through higher Oil prices. Combined with Friday’s robust US employment report, elevated energy costs reinforce expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later this week will be closely watched ahead of the Fed’s September 15-16 policy meeting.
However, the Swiss Franc (CHF) struggles to capitalise on US Dollar weakness. As expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) make the Yen less attractive for funding carry trades, the Franc has emerged as an alternative due to the Swiss National Bank’s (SNB) 0% policy rate. Meanwhile, the SNB’s readiness to intervene in the foreign exchange market to curb any sharp appreciation of the Franc also limits demand for the currency.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, USD/CHF holds near the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around 0.8091, keeping the near-term outlook neutral, with the broader structure still supported by the 100-day and 200-day SMAs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 51 suggests balanced momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays marginally positive, hinting at a modestly constructive bias as long as the pair holds above its underlying moving-average floor.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen near 0.8150, followed by the 0.8200 mark. A clear break above these levels could open the door to further gains toward territory last seen in May 2025.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the psychological 0.8000 level, reinforced by the 100-day SMA just beneath it and then by the longer-term 200-day SMA around 0.7935, with a daily close below this zone needed to expose a deeper bearish extension.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies today. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.11%-0.17%-1.16%-0.17%-0.20%0.06%-0.09%EUR0.11%-0.05%-1.06%-0.09%-0.09%0.16%0.03%GBP0.17%0.05%-1.00%-0.02%-0.03%0.22%0.07%JPY1.16%1.06%1.00%1.02%0.99%1.26%1.13%CAD0.17%0.09%0.02%-1.02%-0.04%0.22%0.06%AUD0.20%0.09%0.03%-0.99%0.04%0.26%0.10%NZD-0.06%-0.16%-0.22%-1.26%-0.22%-0.26%-0.15%CHF0.09%-0.03%-0.07%-1.13%-0.06%-0.10%0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
The trading week is getting underway and, for now, gold has struggled to maintain the strength that characterized its performance in previous weeks. Average price action over the last two sessions shows a decline of roughly 1.5%, reflecting a loss of momentum that has started to highlight a more neutral market environment.
NZD/USD hourly chart showing price at 0.58778, hovering near the 50 EMA (0.58786) below the 200 EMA (0.58951). Source: TradingView The New Zealand dollar is in a different world at the moment. It seems a little weaker. The last RBNZ meeting was a little bit more cautious than I think people realized that it would be.
A breakdown below 0.5860 has me shorting the Kiwi. Now, observant traders might look at that and go, why don’t I just buy the Australian dollar against the New Zealand dollar? And I would say that’s triangulation, and that is a possibility as well.
But if the US dollar is to strengthen, the Kiwi has already shown itself to be very weak to begin with, so I don’t have an issue shorting this currency.
Conversely, if we were to break above the 0.5920 level, I don’t have an issue going long. Now, I wouldn’t, based on the recent action, expect as much momentum here. There are other currencies that have done better against the dollar.
Societe Generale analysts Michael Haigh and Jeremy Sellem describe a broad-based Gold bull market in 2026, driven by ETFs, futures and options positioning. They highlight strong physical ETF inflows, near-record futures exposure by money managers and a structurally bullish options skew. The report stresses that multiple independent demand channels are reinforcing each other, supporting a constructive stance on Gold over the medium term.
Bullish signals across all channels"Gold has entered a new phase of its 2026 bull run, one defined less by speculative momentum and more by broad-based, structural conviction across every category of market participant. What began as a geopolitical shock, evolved over the following months into something far more durable: a synchronised build-up of physical, futures, and options exposure that now spans retail investors, professional money managers, and derivatives traders alike."
"In August, gold ETFs registered a substantial 201 tonnes of net inflows, marking the third-largest monthly addition on record in tonnage terms after now famous world events: February 2009 and the stimulus package announced by the newly inaugurated Obama administration, and March 2020 with the start of the lockdown for Covid globally. This month's inflow surpassed the strong inflows recorded in March 2022 following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and in September 2012 after the Federal Reserve's announcement of QE3."
"In notional exposure terms (contracts x price x contract size), money managers' net positioning reached the second-largest long exposure on record, behind only January 2026, when gold broke through $5,400/oz to an all-time high. This time, with prices roughly $1,000/oz lower, the scale of the dollar exposure is even more striking: it is no longer simply a price story."
"Overall, investors appear to be pricing near-term uncertainty via puts while steadily building call exposure further out the curve, consistent with a constructive medium-term outlook for gold."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Higher Interest Rates Pressure Gold The jobs report on Friday was an addition of 156,000 jobs, and that was basically triple what was expected. This has rate-hike expectations up to about 60% for next week, and that is quite a bit different than it was. This is a driver that is being focused on by many at the moment.
Higher interest rates really punish non-yielding metals, and you are starting to see some hesitation. This all started not this past Friday, but the Friday before, with Kevin Warsh out at Jackson Hole talking in a very hawkish tone about the US economy.
The market is currently sitting just above the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, and that could cause a little bit of a push in here.
The critical event for this week, more likely than not, should be US CPI numbers. The Fed meeting next week is going to be the real show. But Treasury yields and Fed rate expectations are the real drivers of gold at the moment, which in the short term, remains fairly neutral.
GBP/USD is rising amid U.S. dollar weakness, whilst sterling is holding steady against the euro as investors digest Finance Minister John Healey's first major economic speech, which failed to provide much direction for the pound.
Healey announced plans to give regions greater power to attract private investment. He stressed his commitment to fiscal discipline and curbing rising costs.
Healey's pledge for fiscal discipline has helped restore the UK's credibility in the international bond market, keeping the 10-year gilt yield around 5.15%. This is some relief after the 10-year gilt yield traded around its highest level since 2008 last week.
Higher borrowing costs have been fuelled by renewed inflation concerns amid the U.S.-Iran conflict and uncertainty over Prime Minister Andy Burnham's spending plans.
Oil prices approached a seven-week high after rising 10% last week as the U.S. struck Iranian oil tankers.
On the data front, UK firms increased full-time hiring in August for the first time in four years.
The BoE is not expected to hike rates next week, but the market does see a rate hike taking place before the end of the year, offering some support to GBP.
USD eases ahead of this week’s CPI
Separately, the U.S. dollar is easing after rising on Friday following a stronger-than-expected nonfarm payroll report.
162,000 jobs were added in August, and the July report was revised higher. The data saw the market increase expectations that the Fed would hike interest rates at next week's September meeting to 65%.
The focus this week will be on U.S. inflation data, with PPI and CPI figures due on Thursday and Friday, respectively.
Higher-than-expected inflation will cement expectations that the Fed will hike rates by 25 basis points next week, boosting the dollar and potentially weighing on GBP/USD.
However, weaker inflation could see the market rein in rate hike expectations, dragging the USD lower and providing further support for sterling.
GBP/USD forecast – technical analysis
GBP/USD trades within a rising channel following its recovery from the 1.3140 June low. After running into resistance at 1.3675, the pair has eased back, finding support at the 50 EMA around 1.3485.
Buyers will look to extend the move above 1.3500, the July high, to turn attention towards 1.3650 and 1.3675, the August peak. A break above 1.3675 would create a higher high, extending the bullish move towards 1.3700.
On the downside, a break below the 50 EMA at 1.3485 would open the door to 1.3450, the falling trendline support, followed by the 200 EMA at 1.3420. Below here, sellers could gain traction towards 1.3350.
Dominant Driver Is Higher US Rate Expectations Following the Friday jobs number that was much stronger than anticipated, rising 162,000 versus the 56,000 expected. This is pushing the market implied rate hike probability of a September Fed hike to about 60%. That lifts yields, which creates a headwind for silver most of the time.
Yielding metals and assets in general will shy away from that. Right now, it does have the longer-term industrial supply argument underneath it, keeping it somewhat firm. And I personally do believe that silver will continue to be in demand over the next several years.
The supply just isn’t growing quickly enough to meet demand, but that doesn’t do a lot for short term price.
The higher oil prices could keep energy inflation elevated, and that is part of what’s going on with interest rates around the world. So with that, it’s a scenario where interest rates remain elevated, and silver remains somewhat compressed.
We’re hanging around the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, which typically causes some noise for short-term hiccups anyways, so marry that with the fact that it’s a holiday. It’s pretty neutral at the moment.
USDJPY accelerated lower at the start of the week (down over 1% in Asian / early European trading on Monday), attempting to resume a sharp fall of last week, which made a brief pause on Friday.
Japanese yen was lifted from its multi-decade lows by the first intervention in late July and received fresh boost by strong hawkish shift in BoJ’s rhetoric which signals rate hike in September policy meeting (most of economists expect 25 basis points hike but 50 basis points increase is also in play) as well as change in traders’ sentiment favoring further yen longs.
Today’s violation of key 155.20 support zone (lows of Aug 3 / Sep 3,4), generates negative signal of bearish continuation on completion of bearish failure swing pattern on daily chart, with break below 154.78 (Fibo 38.2% of 139.88/163.98 uptrend) to validate signal and expose targets at 152.00 zone Jan 25 trough / 50% retracement) and 150.92 (27 July 2025 spike high).
Daily studies are in full bearish configuration (with the latest formation of 10/200DMA death cross) but oversold, that may provide headwinds, along with significant support provided by the top of rising and thick daily cloud (154.26).
Immediate resistances lay at 154.78 (cracked Fibo 38.2%) and 155.20, with stronger upticks to be ideally capped under 156.50/75 zone, to keep larger bears intact and provide better selling levels.
The EUR/USD is our currency pair of the week, due mainly to the fact we have the ECB’s policy decision being sandwiched between two important US inflation data releases. But with a light calendar in the early parts of the week, traders will get their cues from oil prices, which continue to push higher amid growing escalation between the US and Iran. The higher oil goes, the worse it may get for the euro, which, to be fair, has performed well during the more recent rises in oil prices compared to earlier this year. Still, the risks to the near EUR/USD forecast remains tilted lower as the pair tests the 200-day average ahead of a pivotal week.
Energy’s impact on EUR/USD forecast lower than expected In recent months, economic data has become increasingly more important for the FX volatility than energy prices. This is because unlike earlier in the year, the starting point for any renewed gains in oil prices has been much higher than the pre-conflict levels. At the start of the year, oil prices skyrocketed both in nominal terms and percentage terms as they climbed from a low base. Recent gains have been far less eye-catching in percentage terms and therefore marginally less inflationary (remember inflation describes the rate of change of prices). Well, that is until now. If we see oil prices break above $100 per barrel, then surely the euro will react negatively, and the focus will turn away from data once more.
Stronger Eurozone economy has kept euro’s downside limited For now, driving the EUR/USD forecast and direction has been the relative monetary policy outlooks in the Eurozone and US. With both central banks turning hawkish, the pair has remained in consolidation, with a slightly bullish tilt. That’s thanks largely to surprisingly strong Eurozone data, whereas in the US, economic growth has been faltering.
The relatively strong Eurozone data, combined with elevated energy prices, has seen traders price in a rate hike from the ECB and a couple more hikes are also expected during this cycle. The key question therefore is whether the ECB will validate the hawkish repricing of eurozone rates, or whether Christine Lagarde and co will turn out to be a little less dovish.
Validating the hawkish pricing of Eurozone rates will likely provide a bit more support for the euro, which if Lagarde suggests the central bank is happy to see through the latest spike in oil prices and imply that rates will not be tightened further, then that could hit the euro.
For what it is worth, I reckon the ECB will be keen to highlight stagflation risks amid continued Middle East uncertainty more than the mild improvement in the data. That may mean a more dovish policy decision than expected. As such, the EUR/USD could fall in response to the ECB’s choice of wording and economic projections.
EUR/USD forecast: ECB, PPI and CPI among key highlights this week The ECB’s rate decision is on Thursday, September 10, and the decision is likely to be a hike, as discussed above. The eurozone economy has shown surprising resilience to the Middle East war, while headline inflation has continued to climb with oil prices remaining elevated. What this means for the euro and what we think will happen is something I have discussed above.
Stateside, the first of the two US inflation reports, namely producer price index (PPI), will be sandwiched between the ECB’s interest rate decision and press conference, making the EUR/USD a key pair to watch around 13:00-14:00 BST. Inflation remains the only major US data release before the Fed’s next meeting.
But the big one could be saved to last: US consumer price index (CPI) on Friday, September 11. There’s a bit of a divergence within the Fed, with Chair Kevin Warsh adopting a hawkish stance at the Jackson Hole summit, while Governor Christopher Waller was less so last week, preferring to see the inflation data before deciding on a rate hike or maintaining the current rates. This makes the CPI release a crucial piece of economic data, being the last major update before the Fed’s next meeting.
Technical EUR/USD forecast and key levels to watch Without beating around the bush, consolidation is the name of the game for the EUR/USD. The pair was testing resistance around 1.1635 at the time of writing. This level was the last support pre breakdown on Friday August 28. Here, we also have the 200-day average converging with a short-term bearish trend line.
Source: TradingView.com A potential move lower from here would make technical sense, with the next support seen around 1.1565-75 area on the EUR/USD chart. Break that and 1.1500 could become in focus ahead of the 1.1405 level next.
Meanwhile, if the above-mentioned resistance of 1.1635 breaks instead, then 1.1700 could be re-tested fairly quickly. Above that 1.1800 is the next upside objective if the potential rally continues.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
US CPI – GoldAll eyes are on Friday's US CPI report, which will dictate the Federal Reserve’s September 16 rate decision. While August’s 162,000 payroll rebound raised the chances of a rate hike to 59%, central bank leaders stress that inflation data will decide the outcome. A higher-than-expected inflation figure would lock in a quarter-point increase and boost the US dollar, while a cooler reading could keep interest rates on hold and weaken the greenback.
Meanwhile, gold fell toward 4,400 as higher bond yields and rate-hike expectations weighed on non-yielding metals, leaving gold prices equally dependent on the incoming CPI data. A sell-off beneath the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) at 4,350 and, more importantly, below the 4,310 strong support would increase speculation of further decreases toward 4,200.
ECB rate decision – EUR/USDMarkets broadly expect the European Central Bank to raise borrowing costs by a quarter-point to 2.5% this Thursday as rising energy expenses push inflation beyond 3%. While investors anticipate another potential move by December, economists expect this to be the final increase to avoid damaging economic growth, especially with wage expansion slowing and broader inflation remaining muted. The euro's reaction will depend heavily on Christine Lagarde’s press conference, any signal of a December hike could lift EURUSD, whereas a focus on economic risks could push the single currency lower.
Currently, EUR/USD is fluctuating within the 20- and 200-day SMA, slightly above the 1.1600 handle. A successful climb beyond it would endorse another bullish wave, heading toward the 1.1710 barrier. On the other hand, a slide below the 50-day SMA may switch the short-term outlook to negative.
Escalating US-Iran conflict drives oil higher – WTI Crude OilRising Middle East conflict drove crude oil past 92.00 level today, extending last week’s momentum as reciprocal strikes between American and Iranian forces sparked fears of enduring regional supply bottlenecks. US naval forces targeted Iranian oil tankers following missile launches directed at warships, prompting Tehran to declare restricted shipping routes near the critical Strait of Hormuz waterway. In response, OPEC+ chose to halt its monthly output increases by keeping October production levels unchanged, even as prolonged transit hazards forced the cartel to lower its current-year global demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels daily.
WTI crude oil is ticking marginally higher above the 92.00 region with the next strong resistance coming from the 94.60 barrier. A step up could open the way for a touch of the 99.00 psychological mark, raising the likelihood of a bullish outlook. Alternatively, only a drop below the 200-day SMA at 80.40 could endorse the bearish outlook.
Gold (XAU/USD) kicks off the week on a bearish note as Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike concerns dominate market sentiment following the blockbuster US employment report, with energy-driven inflation also in focus as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to simmer. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,396, down roughly 0.77% on the day.
However, the metal lacks follow-through selling as weakness in the US Dollar (USD) helps limit losses. The Greenback faces pressure as broad Japanese Yen (JPY) strength outweighs support from hawkish Fed expectations and geopolitical tensions. USD/JPY trades near 154.50, down around 3.30% since the start of the month and revisiting levels last seen in February.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 98.95, down nearly 0.20% on the day, hovering near two-week lows.
Data released on Friday showed US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 162K in August, well above the market forecast of 56K, while the Unemployment Rate held steady at 4.1%.
Tensions rose over the weekend after the US military said it struck three Iranian crude Oil tankers on Saturday in response to Iran firing ballistic missiles at two US Navy ships.
The US-Iran conflict provides little support to Gold as markets focus on its inflationary impact through higher energy prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trades near $90 per barrel, close to its highest level since July.
Elevated Oil prices add to inflation risks around the globe, strengthening the case for keeping interest rates higher for longer at a time when bond yields in major economies are already near multi-year highs. This increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding Gold.
Looking ahead, Gold is likely to remain sensitive to Fed rate expectations and developments in the Middle East. Trading conditions could stay thin on Monday due to the US Labor Day holiday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets price in around a 58% chance of a rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting.
Later this week, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) is due on Thursday, followed by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Friday. Hotter inflation readings would reinforce Fed rate hike expectations, while softer figures could offer Gold some relief.
Technical analysis: Sellers retain control below the 200-day SMA
XAU/USD trades around $4,396 at the time of writing, below the Bollinger mid-line near $4,466 on the daily chart and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,536, keeping the near-term bias bearish.
Price still holds above the 100-day SMA at about $4,349 and the lower Bollinger Band around $4,258, suggesting downside pressure is present but not yet disorderly. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is flat around 50 and a negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading with red histogram bars hints that momentum lacks clear bullish follow-through.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-day SMA around $4,349, followed by the lower Bollinger band close to $4,258 before a more significant horizontal floor at $4,000. On the topside, buyers would need to lift XAU/USD back above the Bollinger mid-line near $4,466 to ease immediate selling pressure, with the 200-day SMA around $4,535 acting as a stronger cap ahead of the upper Bollinger band near $4,674.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
The Euro (EUR) is marginally higher to near 1.1625 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Monday. The major currency pair trades broadly sideways amid an extended weekend in the United States (US) due to Labor Day.
This week, the major trigger for the major currency pair will be the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy announcement on Thursday and the release of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Friday.
Euro focus turns to ECBAccording to Deutsche Bank, the upcoming ECB policy decision on Thursday will be “the key event” for European markets. The bank’s European economists “expect a 25bp rate increase, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%,” and they note that investors will be closely watching “any guidance regarding the likelihood of further tightening” beyond this week’s move.
On the US Dollar front, investors will pay close attention to the US CPI data to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
Meanwhile, upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data has prompted Fed’s interest rate hike expectations.
Strategists at BNY highlight that last week’s upside surprise in U.S. labour data, with "nonfarm payrolls (NFP) at 162,000 vs. the expected 55,000," pushed "market-implied odds of a September Fed hike back up to around 60% from 50%," underscoring "how much rate expectations remain tethered to the data backdrop.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1623, keeping a modest bullish tone as it holds above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.1600.
The pair consolidates after its recent advance, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 suggests constructive but not overextended upside momentum.
On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA near 1.1600, with a break below this level likely to weaken the current upward bias and open the door to a deeper pullback towards the psychological level of 1.1500. Looking up, the August high at 1.1713 is the immediate resistance level, followed by the April high at 1.1849.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator ECB Main Refinancing Operations Rate One of the three key interest rates set by the European Central Bank (ECB), the main refinancing operations rate is the interest rate the ECB charges to banks for one-week long loans. It is announced by the European Central Bank at its eight scheduled annual meetings. If the ECB expects inflation to rise, it will increase its interest rates to bring it back down to its 2% target. This tends to be bullish for the Euro (EUR), since it attracts more foreign capital inflows. Likewise, if the ECB sees inflation falling it may cut the main refinancing operations rate to encourage banks to borrow and lend more, in the hope of driving economic growth. This tends to weaken the Euro as it reduces its attractiveness as a place for investors to park capital.
Gold (XAU/USD) is consolidating after its recent pullback as markets reassess the outlook for US interest rates. The latest employment report showed stronger job growth and a steady unemployment rate. This increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise rates at its September meeting. Rising oil prices have also added to inflation concerns. Markets now turn to upcoming US inflation data for further direction on interest rates and gold.
Gold price remains under pressure as US jobs data lift Fed hike betsGold is consolidating after its recent decline as firm US labor data keeps September rate hike expectations elevated. Nonfarm Payrolls increased by 162,000 in August, compared with expectations for an increase of 55,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. The Labor Force Participation Rate also increased. The figures showed that the US labor market remains firm despite earlier signs of weakness.
The strong employment report has increased expectations that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at its September meeting. Markets are pricing in around a 58% chance of a rate increase. Higher interest rates can weigh on gold because the precious metal does not provide interest income. The stronger labor market also gives the Fed more room to focus on inflation risks. This shift in rate expectations has kept gold under pressure after its recent decline.
Rising oil prices are adding another layer of uncertainty. Higher energy costs could keep inflation elevated and support a tighter policy stance from major central banks. At the same time, the US Dollar has continued to decline despite stronger employment data. This has helped limit further pressure on gold. Markets now focus on the upcoming US inflation figures. A stronger inflation report could increase expectations for a September rate hike, while softer data could reduce those expectations.
Gold price consolidates above rising trendline as broadening wedge remains intactThe gold chart below shows price trading within a large ascending broadening wedge. Price has remained between the two rising trendlines that form the pattern. Gold previously climbed toward the upper part of the wedge before turning lower. The latest decline has shifted attention toward the lower rising trendline, which remains an important support for the current structure.
Recently, gold formed a V-shaped recovery from the lower support of the ascending broadening wedge. Price climbed from the rising trendline and moved toward the $4,500 resistance. However, gold failed to break above this level and turned lower again. Price is holding above the rising support trendline, keeping the structure intact.
The $4,350 support is now the key technical level to monitor. Holding above this level would keep gold within the ascending broadening wedge and leave room for another recovery toward $4,500. A break above $4,500 could strengthen the technical structure. However, a sustained move below $4,350 would weaken the current setup and could bring lower support levels into focus.
Gold outlook: US inflation data could shape the next moveGold remains under pressure as strong US employment data increase expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. Rising oil prices also keep inflation concerns in focus. However, weakness in the US Dollar and geopolitical uncertainty continue to provide some support. From a technical perspective, gold is holding above the rising trendline of the ascending broadening wedge. The $4,350 support region is now in focus, while upcoming US inflation data could determine the next major direction.
The Euro hit a correction towards the target and support of 1.1570, as the market still holds above this support since last week. As we see from the chart and as long as the market holds above this support, a rebound towards 1.1710 is likely.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades under pressure on Monday, falling 0.79% on the day to around $65.70 at the time of writing. The white metal is feeling the impact of the strong US employment report, which has revived expectations of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and supports the US Dollar (USD).
The Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report released on Friday showed that the US economy added 162K jobs in August, well above the market consensus of 56K. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 4.1%, in line with expectations, while annual Average Hourly Earnings growth eased slightly to 3.1% from 3.2% previously.
These figures reinforce the view that the US labor market remains strong enough to allow the Fed to maintain a restrictive monetary policy stance. Inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices are also contributing to expectations of a potential interest rate hike as soon as the central bank's next meeting.
The prospect of higher US interest rates is a negative factor for Silver, which does not offer any yield. At the same time, it provides support to the US Dollar, making the precious metal more expensive for investors using other currencies.
However, expectations of monetary tightening remain dependent on incoming data. Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Thursday that he would favor keeping interest rates unchanged if upcoming indicators confirmed that inflationary pressures were easing.
Investors' attention therefore turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), due on Thursday and Friday, respectively. These releases should provide fresh clues about the inflation trajectory and could play a key role in shaping expectations for the Fed's next policy decision.
Meanwhile, escalating tensions between the US and Iran in the Strait of Hormuz keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in financial markets. US forces struck three Iranian Oil tankers on Saturday, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it had targeted six vessels in retaliation.
The exchange of attacks is fueling concerns over the security of shipping through the strategic waterway and the risk of prolonged disruptions to energy supplies from the Middle East. This backdrop supports energy prices and reinforces inflation risks, potentially keeping expectations of restrictive Fed monetary policy elevated.
Geopolitical tensions could nevertheless limit Silver's downside by simultaneously fueling demand for safe-haven assets. The white metal therefore remains caught between potential support from defensive flows and pressure from higher US interest rate expectations and a stronger US Dollar.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
