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PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7411 vs. 6.7399 previous

GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Trendline caps recovery as range holds

Recent trading sessions have reflected a more neutral tone around the Australian dollar. This can be seen in AUD/USD price action, which has posted moves of roughly 0.2% over the last two sessions without establishing a clear direction.

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Gold Retreats As 30-Year Yield Hits 5.58%

Gold 280926 Daily Chart Gold is under strong pressure amid sell-off in global debt markets, which has pushed bond yields to new highs.

The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.91% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 5.24%. The yield of 30-year Treasuries tested the 5.58% level as bond traders worried about long-term sustainability of U.S. finances.

According to FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the next meeting in October has increased to 70.3%. Traders expect that the federal funds rate would be raised by 100 bps by the end of 2027. Expectations of a series of rate hikes put significant pressure on gold that pays no interest.

U.S. dollar gained some ground against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders focused on developments in debt market. Stronger dollar put additional pressure on gold in today’s trading session.

I’d note that one of the reasons for the sell-off in gold markets could be technical. The strong pullback in debt markets could have forced investors to raise cash elsewhere, forcing them to sell gold.

Currently, gold is trying to settle below the support level at $4160 – $4180. In case gold manages to settle below the $4160 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.

Silver Dives As Traders Focus On Rising Yields

Silver 280926 4h Chart Silver is under strong pressure as gold/silver ratio climbed towards the 67.50 level. In case gold/silver ratio settles above the 50 MA at $67.67, it will move towards the 69.00 level, which will be bearish for silver.

Silver settled below the 50 MA at $63.86 and is trying to settle below the support level at $61.00 – $62.00. If silver settles below the $61.00 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $56.00 – $57.00 range.

On the upside, a move above the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the resistance level at $65.00 – $66.00.

Gold Price Forecast

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Platinum Tests Support At $1700 – $1720

Platinum 280926 4h Chart Platinum pulled back amid broad sell-off in precious metals markets, which was triggered by rising yields. Palladium markets were down by -3.7%, which was bearish for platinum.

Oil prices moved away from session highs as Saudi Arabia restarted the key East-West pipeline, but this move did not provide any support to platinum.

Platinum attempts to settle below the support level at $1700 – $1720. If platinum manages to settle below the $1700 level, it will head towards the next support at $1600 – $1620. A move below the $1600 level will open the way to the test of the $1520 level.

On the upside, platinum needs to settle back above the 50 MA at $1749 to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, platinum will head towards the resistance level at $1780 – $1800.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.

Both banks have lowered USD/JPY forecasts sharply as Japanese policy and potential pension-fund inflows improve the Yen's outlook. Goldman Sachs has abandoned its forecast for the US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate to stand at 165 in twelve months, replacing it with 150 as Crédit Agricole also cuts its projections.

USD/JPY traded around 157.35 on Monday afternoon, up 0.04% after Friday's 0.97% fall.

Goldman now forecasts 158 in three months, 155 in six months and 150 in twelve months, replacing its earlier 162, 163 and 165 projections.

Its twelve-month target implies a decline of roughly 4.7% from current levels.

The bank explains why cheap valuations may now matter more:

"For years, domestic policies and the global backdrop justified the Yen's undervaluation. Now, domestic policies seem to be turning more constructive, with scope for more to come. Faster rate hikes have reduced the inflationary impact of expansionary fiscal policy, taking pressure off the currency."

Goldman also points to possible repatriation and intervention risk, while acknowledging that the shift in portfolio flows remains largely speculative.

Crédit Agricole's revision is similarly substantial:

"We are lowering our USD/JPY forecast profile, now expecting the exchange rate to average 156 in Q426 (down from 163) and to continue its downward path to 150 in Q427 (previously 156)."

Its 150 projection therefore arrives later than Goldman's, in the final quarter of 2027.

Japan's Government Pension Investment Fund could provide a further boost if it increases domestic bond holdings.

Crédit Agricole calculates roughly $115bn of repatriation if the bond allocation rises to around 31% and sister funds follow suit.

Its preferred scenarios put short-term USD/JPY fair value around 148-150, conditional on portfolio changes.

The bank cautions:

"We cannot possibly know how the GPIF will change its asset allocations."

Without that shift, it sees elevated oil prices and a BoJ merely matching Fed rate hikes limiting further Yen gains.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

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Summary:

GBP/INR climbed above 127 on Monday, September 28, with one British pound worth around ₹127.19 during the session. The British pound strengthened as markets increased bets on a Bank of England rate hike, while the Indian rupee weakened as Brent crude rose above $107 per barrel. GBP/INR now faces competing central-bank expectations, with markets pricing tighter policy from both the Bank of England and Reserve Bank of India as inflation risks rise. The GBP/INR exchange rate moved back above ₹127 on Monday, September 28, as renewed strength in the British pound combined with fresh pressure on the Indian rupee. GBP/INR traded around ₹127.19 during Monday’s session, rising from an early low near ₹126.70 and reaching approximately ₹127.40 before giving back some of its gains.

The move comes as both currencies respond to the latest surge in global oil prices, but for very different reasons. In Britain, expensive energy is increasing expectations that the Bank of England may need to raise interest rates again. For India, higher crude prices are weighing on the rupee because of the country’s heavy dependence on imported energy.

Why Is GBP/INR Rising Today? The latest GBP to INR move reflects strength in sterling alongside renewed weakness in the Indian rupee. Reuters reported Monday that the pound rebounded from multi-month lows against both the US dollar and euro as investors increased bets on tighter monetary policy from the Bank of England.

Governor Andrew Bailey and Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden have highlighted growing inflation risks associated with high energy prices. Markets are now pricing around an 85% probability of a Bank of England rate hike in November.

That shift has provided support for sterling after a difficult September. The pound is still heading for a roughly 2% monthly decline against the US dollar, showing how dramatically higher oil prices and changing global rate expectations have reshaped currency markets this month.

Indian Rupee Falls as Brent Crude Climbs Above $107 The other side of the GBP/INR exchange rate is an increasingly vulnerable Indian rupee. The rupee weakened to 95.9825 per US dollar on Monday, its lowest level in more than a week. Reuters reported that intervention from state-run banks, most likely acting for the Reserve Bank of India, helped prevent a larger decline.

Oil is central to the rupee’s weakness.

Brent crude jumped about 2.5% above $107 per barrel after US President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian proposal aimed at resolving the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. India imports nearly 90% of its crude requirements, leaving the economy particularly exposed to sustained increases in global energy prices.

Higher crude prices can increase India’s import bill, worsen inflation pressures and increase demand for US dollars from importers. All three factors can weigh on the rupee.

RBI Intervention Keeps INR Near 96 Against the Dollar The Indian rupee outlook could have been weaker without support from the Reserve Bank of India. Reuters reported that traders saw signs of RBI intervention again on Monday as USD/INR approached the important 96 level. Bank of America analysts said they believe the RBI is prepared to use additional foreign-exchange reserves to limit rupee weakness beyond 96 per dollar.

India’s foreign-exchange reserves fell by around $15 billion in the week ending September 18, with intervention to support the rupee likely contributing to the decline. The RBI is also dealing with the inflationary consequences of high oil prices and excess domestic liquidity. Expectations for an RBI rate hike in October have consequently increased, potentially providing some support for INR if those expectations strengthen further.

GBP/INR Forecast: Can the Pound Rise Above ₹128? The near-term GBP/INR forecast is increasingly tied to the monetary-policy outlook in both countries. GBP/INR has recovered above ₹127, but the pair remains below levels seen earlier in September. Reference-rate data show the pair has traded between roughly ₹126.95 and ₹129.57 over the past 30 days.

For GBP/INR, ₹127.50 is the first area to watch if sterling extends Monday’s recovery. Beyond that, ₹128 could return to focus. On the downside, a move back below ₹127 would put the ₹126.50-₹126.70 region in focus.

The larger question is which central bank turns more hawkish. Further increases in UK rate-hike expectations could support the pound, while stronger RBI intervention or growing expectations of an Indian rate increase could limit GBP/INR gains.

Oil prices will remain important for both sides of the pair.

Is GBP to INR going to increase?

GBP/INR has risen back above ₹127, but its next move is likely to depend on Bank of England and RBI interest-rate expectations, oil prices and the performance of the US dollar. Sterling could receive support if expectations for a November BoE rate hike continue to strengthen.

Why is the Indian rupee falling?

The Indian rupee is under pressure primarily from high crude oil prices, a strong US dollar and elevated global bond yields. India imports nearly 90% of its crude requirements, making sustained oil-price increases particularly important for INR.

How many Indian rupees is one British pound?

On September 28, £1 was worth approximately ₹127.19 during the session. Exchange rates change continuously, and bank or money-transfer rates may differ from market rates.

Pound-New Zealand Dollar could remain volatile as UK GDP, New Zealand confidence data and wider risk sentiment shape the pair. The Pound New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate was volatile last week, rising to a six-day high before sliding to a nine-day low.

At the time of writing, GBP/NZD traded at NZ$2.3383, virtually unchanged on the week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.338311 (+0.10%)

Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 2.011123 (0.00%)

New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.566475 (+0.17%)

DAILY RECAP:

The pound (GBP) started the week on the back foot as UK consumer confidence fell to a three-year low, with households increasingly concerned about the prospect of higher interest rates and potential tax hikes.

Sterling then wavered as a surge in UK government borrowing in August weighed on sentiment. However, better-than-forecast manufacturing data and falling oil prices helped GBP avoid further losses.

The pound came under further pressure midweek after the UK’s services PMI slowed more than expected in September, with the survey falling to 51.7 from 52.5 in August.

GBP remained subdued as signs of weakening consumer spending emerged, with the latest Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) distributive trades survey reporting record-low retail order volumes in September.

However, Sterling regained some ground at the end of the week after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said elevated energy prices made it harder for the central bank to avoid raising interest rates.

Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar (NZD) started last week’s session off on the back foot amid an anxious market mood.

After striking a six-day low against the Pound, the ‘Kiwi’ then rallied. Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman warned that the recent rise in oil prices would likely lead to higher inflation, fuelling bets for further interest rate hikes.

However, NZD trimmed its gains as the week went on, with ongoing risk aversion weighing on the currency.

Although risk appetite picked up towards the end of the week, a slight dovish repricing of RBNZ bets subdued the ‘Kiwi’.

Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Risk Appetite to Drive the Pairing? Looking ahead, fresh UK economic data is thin on the ground this week, with the only key British data being the finalised GDP figures and manufacturing PMI.

The GDP data on Wednesday is expected to show that the UK economy slowed in the second quarter but remained relatively healthy. If the figures are revised lower or higher, Sterling could slip or strengthen, respectively.

Meanwhile, the final manufacturing PMI could lend GBP modest support on Thursday if it confirms an improvement in activity in September.

As for the ‘Kiwi’, a forecast improvement in New Zealand business confidence could support NZD exchange rates on Wednesday morning.

On Thursday evening, the latest consumer confidence index is also out. No change is expected, but any surprise results may drive volatility.

Finally, risk sentiment will continue to influence the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar, and could potentially be the main driver of GBP/NZD movement. Could hopes for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz cheer markets and boost the ‘Kiwi’?

Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold turned sharply lower Monday after breaking through the 61.8% level at $4,230.51. This level had been acting as major support. The break puts sellers in control and turns $4,230.51 into the first resistance level.

The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through Monday’s low at $4,140.78 will signal a resumption of the downtrend.

The next major downside target is the August swing bottom at $3,996.06, followed by the main bottom at $3,942.10.

The 50-day moving average at $4,320.69 is controlling the short-term direction. The 200-day moving average at $4,541.03 is controlling the longer-term direction. Gold is trading below both indicators.

My bias is to the downside. A recovery above $4,230.51 would be the first sign that buyers are fighting back, but they need to reclaim the 50-day moving average at $4,320.69 to weaken the bearish momentum.

Gold Price Forecast

Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.

See all Gold forecasts Gold sellers get four more chances this week to push the rate trade. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is out Tuesday, ADP employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports come Wednesday, and Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report closes the week. JOLTS and ADP will get a reaction, but the bigger tests come later in the week.

PCE and payrolls carry the most weight because they can move the October hike odds. A hot PCE number or firm payrolls report pushes those odds higher and gives sellers another reason to press gold.

Softer reports could bring profit-taking in Treasury yields and the dollar. Buyers would still have to show up first, and it will take more than one weak report to repair the technical damage from Monday’s break.

What to Watch Gold needs oil, yields or the dollar to turn before it can build a meaningful recovery, and Brent is the first one to watch. With the Iran proposal rejected, there’s no deal to take the supply risk back out of crude, and higher oil keeps pressure on the October hike odds.

Wednesday’s PCE reports and Friday’s payrolls are the best chance for relief. Gold needs one of them to come in soft enough to pull yields off their highs and cool the dollar.

The Dollar Index is the third piece. It’s holding above its breakout level, and a push toward the September top would put more weight on gold heading into the reports.

Sellers have control while gold trades under the broken 61.8% level. Monday’s low at $4,140.78 is the next trigger, and the August swing bottom at $3,996.06 sits below that. The tone of the market will be determined by trader reaction to $4,230.51.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

I don’t necessarily look at this as a market that I’m wanting to get overly aggressive with, but I do recognize that there’s probably more downward pressure than up. Longer term, I still like silver. The reality is that silver does not have enough supply in any given year to really wipe out demand, and that’s only going to get worse with AI, the electrification of the economy, etc.

So, with all of that being said, this is a market that I think we have to look at through the prism of whether or not the $60 level ends up being a massive floor. If we break above the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators, then it could open up a move to $70, but I don’t see that being a situation we run into very quickly.

I think short-term traders probably look at this as a fade-the-rally market. This market is one that I think has a long way to go to the upside, but we have a lot of work to do to see the longer-term possibilities play out over time.

NZD/USD: Buyers and sellers battle for control at 0.5660

Headlines:

Gold price breaks below $4,200 as surging Treasury yields deepen the technical damageGold collapses as Trump rejects Iran's proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz and signals new bombingsJapanese yen jumps as top currency diplomat Mimura reiterates strong currency alliance with the USUS jobs report could decide how much higher Treasury yields can goStock earnings pick of the week: Can Micron earnings keep the AI memory boom running?Market outlook for the week of 28th September - 2nd OctoberBoE's Ramsden warns persistent elevated energy prices could warrant a rate hikeMarkets:

Gold down 3.1% to $4,151WTI crude up 3.6% to $95.77JPY leads, CHF lags on the day10-year Treasury yields up 3.6 bps to 5.217%European equities steadier; S&P 500 futures -0.5%Bitcoin down 1.8% to $82,959It is a brand new week but we're seeing much of the same old themes in markets today.

As US president Trump rejected Iran's proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, we're seeing oil prices climb back up again and that is also adding to pressure on the bond market since the tail end of last week.

WTI crude is up over 3% to $95.77, reigniting inflation fears and keeping major central banks on their toes as we begin the transition into the fourth quarter of the year. At the same time, the selloff in the bond market continues with 10-year Treasury yields jumping back up above 5.21% on the day, even briefly touching 5.23% earlier - its highest level since 2007.

The combination of higher oil prices and higher bond yields continues to be a major bane for risk trades, with US futures being dragged lower again. Equities continue to be hurt as higher rates are putting added pressure on valuations alongside higher borrowing costs. S&P 500 futures are down 0.5% as tech shares lead declines, with Nasdaq futures down 0.8%.

In Europe, investors seem to be able to hold their nerves for a little bit with regional stocks keeping steadier. But with the overarching mood across broader markets, the slight gains we're seeing are still nothing to shout about for now.

Looking to major currencies, the yen is once again in the spotlight after Japan top currency diplomat Mimura stepped in with another round of verbal intervention. That pushed USD/JPY down from 157.50 to 156.50 during the session before settling closer to the 157.00 mark currently.

In other markets, gold is coming under heavy pressure as a setback to US-Iran diplomacy hopes and higher bond yields are weighing on the precious metal alongside a major technical break to the downside. The drop below $4,200 is threatening to take out key support around $4,240 and that shifts the spotlight in gold to the key support level closer to $4,000 next potentially.

There's going to be a lot to play for this week in markets, with the RBA decision coming up tomorrow, before we get the US PCE report and Micron earnings on Wednesday, and finally the US jobs report on Friday. That is not to mention month-end and quarter-end shenanigans as well in the coming sessions.

So, expect there to be plenty of volatility up ahead this week.

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The Pound-Canadian Dollar rate could remain volatile as UK and Canadian GDP data, manufacturing PMIs and oil price swings drive the pair. The Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate faced volatility last week, briefly sliding to a 16-day high and then recovering, as turbulence in the oil market impacted the pairing.

At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8732, virtually unchanged on the week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.874515 (+0.08%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.610565 (-0.02%)

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.41614 (+0.15%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) opened the week on the back foot as a sharp decline in UK consumer confidence pushed sentiment towards Sterling lower.

The currency remained under pressure after new figures showed UK government borrowing had risen sharply in August. However, it managed to firm against its weakest rivals.

Midweek, GBP came under fresh selling pressure when the UK services PMI dropped more than expected, falling from 52.5 in August to 51.7 in September.

Sterling continued to struggle as another indicator pointed to weakening consumer spending. The latest Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) distributive trades survey showed retail order volumes had slumped to a record low for September.

The Pound managed to claw back its losses towards the end of the week after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey cautioned that sustained energy price increases could make it harder for the central bank to keep interest rates from rising.

Meanwhile, the crude-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faced pressure through the first half of the week as oil prices declined. Markets were hopeful that the oil supply disruption in the Middle East would be limited amid rumours of US-Iran negotiations.

However, oil prices rebounded in the middle of the week, helping the ‘Loonie’ rally strongly.

CAD briefly hit a 16-day high against Sterling on Thursday, before retreating amid mixed retail sales figures. Canadian sales growth was weaker than initially thought in July but reported a decent recovery in August, according to preliminary figures.

The ‘Loonie’ continued cutting its gains through Friday, as oil prices dipped again.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: GDP and Manufacturing PMIs in Focus Looking ahead, the UK economic calendar is fairly light this week, with the final GDP figures and manufacturing PMI set to be the key releases for Sterling.

Wednesday’s GDP data is expected to confirm that UK economic growth slowed in the second quarter, although the economy is still thought to have expanded at a relatively healthy pace. Any revision to the figures could influence GBP, with a downward adjustment potentially putting pressure on Sterling, while an upward revision could lend it support.

Towards the end of the week, the final manufacturing PMI may offer some support to the Pound if it confirms that activity picked up in September.

Turning to the ‘Loonie’, Canada’s latest GDP figures on Tuesday could support the currency, if they report a return to growth in August.

The latest Canadian manufacturing PMI on Thursday may also underpin CAD, if factory activity continued to expand in September.

Meanwhile, oil price dynamics will likely continue to drive the Canadian Dollar. Further volatility could see the ‘Loonie’ fluctuate.

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