Rabobank's Senior FX Strategist Jane Foley discusses EUR/USD dynamics in light of shifting Fed rate hike expectations and Oil-related safe haven flows into the Dollar. Foley expects choppy range trading in EUR/USD with a modest medium-term upward bias, highlighting Eurozone vulnerability as an energy importer. Rabobank's updated forecasts see EUR/USD around 1.15 in one month and 1.15–1.16 over 3–6 months.
Range-bound pair with mild upside bias"While oil and the DXY dollar index largely moved in the same direction from late January and into the spring, this appeared to break down in June. In our view, this was likely linked to a run up in market speculation regarding the prospects of Fed rate hikes in late spring, which appeared to take over from safe haven demand as the primary source of USD support in this period. Fed rate hike speculation has recently suffered a setback on the back of recent US data releases."
"Even though the July US CPI inflation data was in line with expectations, the market slightly pared back its expectations for a Fed rate hike. In line with this the DXY dollar index weakened a little on the news, although it subsequently shifted back towards the top end of its dull August range. The release of softer than expected US payrolls data last week likely provided a filter through which many investors judged yesterday’s US CPI inflation release, since a softer labour market will reduce the risk of second round price effects."
"If Fed rate hike speculation continues to be pared back, in line with RaboResearch’s view, the USD will be exposed to potential downside pressures. That said, the uncertainties regarding the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz remain a USD supportive factor. At the start of the Iran war, the market was positioned short of USDs."
"By contrast, in these circumstances we would expect the market to remain wary of rebuilding long EUR positions. This view stems from the expectation that the Eurozone is more vulnerable to growth and inflation headwinds derived from its stance as an energy importer. Thus, while we see scope for some downside potential for the USD coming from a reduction in Fed rate hike expectations, we expect these to be contained by safe haven demand, until further clarity regarding the Strait of Hormuz emerges. Consequently, we expect choppy range trading to dominate EUR/USD through the rest of the year."
"We continue to favour choppy range trading in EUR/USD in the months ahead with a modest medium term upward bias. We have pushed up our 1-month forecast to EUR/USD1.15 from 1.14 and expect the 1.15-1.16 range to dominate on a 3-to-6-month view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver continues to hover around the 200-day EMA on Thursday as we are simply waiting for the next move to be made, most likely with external influence.
Silver Technical Analysis
Silver futures trade at $65.18, sitting between the 50-day and 200-day EMAs with resistance at $70. Source: TradingView Silver continues to hover around the 200-day EMA on Thursday as we are just simply waiting for the next move. A lot of what we’re seeing here will be influenced by the interest rates in America, which are currently drifting a little bit lower. Generally speaking, that helps silver, but at this point in time, we also have to worry about the situation in the Middle East, because that will greatly influence things like the interest rate market.
The 200-day EMA is an indicator that a lot of longer-term traders will be watching, and the fact that we are stalling here after a recent recovery probably isn’t a huge surprise. Breaking above the $65.50 level would be a big victory in the short term, perhaps opening up the possibility of a challenge of the $70 level. This is a level that would more likely than not get some interest from a headline perspective.
Inflection Point and Key Support Levels If we break down below the 50-day EMA, though, that could be negative, opening up a drop towards the $60 level. All things being equal, this is a market that is at an inflection point, at least short-term, and will be worth watching. We need to see some type of momentum in one direction or the other to get any type of real read on the market, but right now, it certainly looks like choppiness and a little bit of hesitation is exactly the way I would describe this market over the last three days or so. Ultimately, we are waiting for some kind of clarity to get moving again.
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Gold futures rally to $4,447, pushing above both EMAs after clearing the $4,000–$4,300 consolidation zone. Source: TradingView The gold market initially tried to rally during the trading session on Thursday, but it is struggling a little bit. As I’ve been saying for a few days now, sooner or later gravity comes back into the picture, and that might be what we’re seeing here: a simple return to a little bit of normalcy after a shot higher. Whether or not gold pulls back significantly remains to be seen, but one could see a move to the 200-day EMA and still think that is relatively normal.
To the upside, we have the $4,500 level, which has offered a bit of resistance recently, and then we have the $4,600 level, which has been structurally important. I’ll be watching both of those levels for potential targets for bulls. If we pull back from here, a bounce from the 200-day EMA would be a significant technical setup that will, more likely than not, capture the attention of a lot of traders as it is such a widely followed indicator.
Good Day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to one and all! All ends well for my beloved Cardinals yesterday as they beat a great pitcher and the Phillies 7-1... They won 2 of 3 from the team ahead of them for the playoffs... So, a step in the right direction... It was very hot here yesterday, thus making that 3 consecutive days of dangerous heat... I like it hot, but this is too hot for even me! So, I haven't been outside to read, and I feel like something's awry... The Friends of Distinction greet me this morning with their 60's song: Grazing In The Grass
So, all the thoughts of a rate cut, have just about disappeared, and with it so does the beating down of the dollar... The dollar gained 1 index point yesterday and now has gained back all the index points it lost last Friday as it closed yesterday at 1,204... I knew in my heart of hearts that the loss the dollar took last week wouldn't last long, as it was built on a house of cards, thinking that they might be a rate cut....
The price of Gold gained yesterday, but Silver couldn't find a bid as the SPTs took it down for the day by 40-cents... Gold gained $41 on the day and closed at $4,410... Silver closed at $65.41... Still even with the STPs doing their business with Silver, Silver has recovered nicely from where the SPTs sent it a couple of weeks ago...
The SUPID CPI played with the markets some yesterday... In July, the quants calculated that the STUPID CPI came in at 3.4% VS last year, that's a .1% drop, but the monthly STUPID CPI had gained .1%, so if I were their boss and they came to me with these levels, I would ask them to explain how in the hell did the monthly rate go up .1% the VS a year earlier it fell .1%? After stumbling around and hemming and hawing they wouldn't have an answer because they didn't know....
So, the annual rate of 3.4% played with the rate hike folks... And made them question their status, and that helped Gold to gain.. '
In the overnight markets last night... The dollar ran into a roadblock and saw some selling with the BBDXY down 1 index point at 1,203 this morning... The dollar could be subject to a lot of back and forth in its price today, as the data cupboard is interesting...
Gold/Silver are seeing some selling this morning, as the SPTs are at it again... Gold is down $25 and Silver is down 41-cents to start the day, with the SPTs working on their shorts to affect the prices negatively.
The price of Oil slipped a buck overnight and starts today with an $81 handle. And the 10-Year remained at 4.66% yield overnight.
I saw this on Zerohedge.com "With mortgage rates rising and the 'low hire, no fire' economy leaving many anxious about their household finances, the ugly spring selling season has not been followed by a consistent rebound in existing home sales in the U.S.
After falling 1.4% MoM in June (revised up from a 2.4% MoM decline), U.S. existing home sales fell again -1.7% MoM in July (worse than the -1.0% MoM expected). This dragged the annual increase in sales down to just 0.74% YoY..."
Chuck Again.... you could have bet your bottom dollar that rising mortgage rates were going to be a problem for housing.... And so, it appears to be...
I didn't intend to start today's letter with data prints, but they did play hell for the markets yesterday, so they got top billing...
Well, I can't get this out of my mind. The thought that China keeps buying physical Gold while the U.S. plays with paper money... I think the horde of Gold that China has is greater than that of the U.S. which is 8,000 tons... (supposedly they still have that much) Think about that for a minute... China buys physical Gold just about every day and the U.S. bleeds dollar bills.... Yes, the dollar is still the reserve currency of the world... But, if I had my druthers I would choose China over the paper world of the U.S.
Longtime Pfennig Reader, Bob, forwarded an email to me that told me that China has built a Laser-Powered Grid that transmits electricity through the air..... The U.S. has copper wires that link from A to B, while the Chinese have a laser light carrying electricity to A and B....
Now, I don't know if this is true or not, but if it is true, and with the advances made in today's world, why wouldn't I believe it? But if it's true than the Chinese have got something...
My friend, and editor of 5 Bullets, David Gonigam has good piece in his letter yesterday regarding AI and how they will be seeking a taxpayer bailout soon... here's David: "Slowly, inexorably, the path is becoming clear: The AI industry will be asking for a taxpayer bailout next year. Or, at the latest, 2028."
Chuck again... this just rankles me to no end... These companies have been spending like drunken tourists and now that they haven't turned profit, they ask for a bailout.... I just get so darn mad at these companies... But it'll do no good, they'll get it and move on as if they didn't need it, when we all know better than that... Taxpayer bailouts are a bugaboo of mine... I think you can tell...
The euro is still trying to recover, after the U.S. sold $10 Billion worth of the currency to buy yen... I just can't get over this, and you shouldn't either! The fact that we did this is bad enough in my opinion, but add in that we didn't even alert the European Central Bank adds salt to the wound... It will take a while for the euro to recover and get back to gaining VS the dollar, so patience my friend....
The U.S. Data Cupboard had yesterday's STUPID CPI and the previous day had the Existing Home Sales that we talked about above... Today's Cupboard has the July PPI (wholesale inflation) and the usual Thursday fare of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims... The Jobless Claims had reached a level below 200,000 last week for the first time in month of Blue Moons.... So, it will be interesting to see if the number is above or below 200,000...
And some things never change... The U.S. budget deficit soared to its highest monthly level in more than five years amid a surge in Medicare costs and as interest on the federal debt continued to weigh on the nation’s fiscal picture, the Treasury Department reported Wednesday.
In addition to the big single-month jump, the collective red ink across the first 10 months of the government’s fiscal year rose to nearly $1.8 trillion and surpassed the same period in 2025.
The July shortfall totaled $432.3 billion, up some 48% from the same period a year ago and the largest monthly deficit since March 2021. Geez Louise, this is getting to be too much for one country to bear....
To recap... The dollar has gained back all of its losses from last Friday as the rate cut folks have cowered into the corner and hid from the masses... Gold found a bid on Wednesday, but Silver struggled with the SPTs showing who's boss... The STUPID CPI was a bunch of bunk but played with the markets. And we're still hitting the till, with the monthly Budget Deficit making a high that hasn't been reached since March 2021...
For What It's Worth... Man, to find a FWIW article this morning was like looking for a needle in a haystack... But, I did find one...
Here's your snippet:"Gold, when combined with other asset classes, can be a valuable component of a diversified retirement portfolio.
By allocating a share of your retirement savings to physical metals, you can enhance financial resilience and better safeguard your purchasing power as you move toward retirement.
But, before opening an account or buying IRA-eligible bullion, you need to start by asking questions that clarify the strategy, costs, rules, storage arrangements, and service you can expect.
Here's a simple checklist to prepare you for this step in your retirement strategy...
1. What role do precious metals play in my overall portfolio?
Are you looking for a diversifier, a potential hedge against inflation, or a way to reduce reliance on purely paper holdings? Defining the purpose of the allocation can help you decide whether a precious metals IRA is appropriate and how it may fit within your broader retirement plan.
In general, we recommend adding precious metals to a self-directed IRA after you have met your allocation of core holdings in gold, so that your core holdings are easily accessible in case of an emergency. A precious metals IRA is part of your longer-term strategy.
2. How much of my retirement portfolio should I consider allocating?
There is no universal allocation that fits every investor. Your time horizon, risk tolerance, existing holdings, income needs, and retirement objectives should all be considered. But don't put all your nest eggs in one basket!
A diverse retirement portfolio is essential, and this is precisely why gold and other precious metals can be so useful when held in combination with other asset classes. Gold and silver prices tend to move independently (low correlation) of stocks and bonds, which helps balance risk and can stabilize a portfolio during economic downturns.
3. Should I consider gold, silver, platinum, palladium, or a combination?
Each metal has different supply, demand, market, and industrial-use characteristics. Ask how the proposed metal mix supports your objectives and whether it aligns with your overall portfolio strategy. Most investors start with an allocation to gold, and add other precious metals to increase the diversification."
Chuck Again... obviously I couldn't list all 17, you'll have to click on the link above to see what the entire list has in store for you... But, you get the idea that starting a Gold IRA isn't just deciding that you want one....
Market Prices 8/13/2026: American Style: A$.7054, kiwi .5845, C$ .7173, euro 1.1536, sterling 1.3495, Swiss $1.2310, European Style: rand 16.1246, krone 9.5087, SEK 9.4804, forint 314.53, zloty 3.7321, koruna 21.0000, RUB 84.01, yen 159.30, sing 1.2799, HKD 7.8468, INR 95.44, China 6.7450, peso 17.05, BRL 5.1768, BBDXY 1,203, Dollar Index 99.89, Oil $81.67, 10-year 4.66%, Silver $65.01, Platinum $1,734.00, Palladium $1,364.00, Copper $6.58, and Gold... $4,385.
That's It for today... Well, my beloved Cardinals now go on a 3-city road trip, how they come home from that will decide if they are be taken seriously among the Playoff contenders or not.... The excitement around the start of Mizzou's Football Season is high; they've already announced the singer of the Anthem at the first game: Sheryl Crow! She of course used to be a Mizzou student! My wife is going to the Muny tonight, so I'll be batching this evening... I hope it's not one of those nights as the song suggests. Blind Faith takes us to the finish line today with their great song: Can't Find My Way Home.... I hope you have a Tub Thumpin' Thursday today and Please Be Good To Yourself!
Key Points:September hike odds dropped from above 50% to near 35-40% after CPI but the dollar near 100.00 is keeping silver from advancing.Silver stalled at the midpoint between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and is back below that pivot Thursday morning.July PPI at 12:30 GMT is the next catalyst with June producer prices down 0.3% largely driven by lower energy costs.
In this article:Silver
-0.44%
Silver ForecastSilver Pulls Back as the Dollar Refuses to Follow CPI Lower Spot silver is giving back part of this week’s advance because the one market that needed to confirm the rate-relief trade did not cooperate. CPI came in contained Wednesday. Treasury yields eased. September hike odds dropped below 40%. All of that should have kept silver pressing toward the recent high near $66.50. Instead the dollar firmed to a two-week high near 100.00 and silver is lower Thursday ahead of the Producer Price Index report. The rally stalled right at the midpoint between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and the contract is back below that pivot this morning.
At 11:52 GMT, XAUUSD was trading at $64.90, down $0.43 or 0.65%.
Daily Spot Silver (XAGUSD) Technical Analysis
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver (XAUUSD) is edging lower on Thursday after hitting its highest level at $66.80 since June 22 the previous session. The 200-day moving average at $71.43 is the nearest upside target. The nearest downside target is the 50-day moving average at $61.42.
The key pivot price controlling the direction of spot silver is the mid-point of the major moving averages. This pivot is $66.43 today. A sustained move over this level will indicate the presence of buyers. This could lead to a near-term test of the 200-day MA and an intermediate 50% level at $72.08.
A sustained break under this pivot like we are seeing this morning will signal the presence of sellers. This could trigger a retreat into the 50-day MA and 50% of the all-time high at $60.835.
CPI Gave Silver a Bid but the Dollar Took It Back July consumer prices rose 0.1% from June and 3.4% from a year earlier, easing from 3.5% in June. Core inflation cooled to 2.5% annually. That was enough to push September hike odds from above 50% earlier in the week to near 35-40% after the report. Silver moved higher on the shift because lower rate expectations reduce the cost of holding a metal that pays no interest.
Daily US Dollar Index (DXY) Thursday’s pullback tells you traders already priced that relief in. The dollar near 100.00 is the reason. Yields moved lower but the currency market is not confirming a clean turn in the rate outlook. Silver got the bond market to cooperate. It did not get the dollar, and a firm dollar raises the cost of the metal for buyers using other currencies. The market needs both pieces lined up for a sustained move and right now it only has one.
PPI Lands Thursday and the Dollar Is Waiting for It The July Producer Price Index report hits at 12:30 GMT. June PPI fell 0.3% on the month, largely because of energy. The number matters for silver because producer costs feed directly into the inflation debate and into the outlook for factory demand at the same time.
Silver reached $66.80 Wednesday and could not hold above the pivot. The PPI number is what determines whether buyers get a second chance at that level or whether the dollar stays firm and the pullback extends. The Fed still has three policymakers who voted for a hike at the last meeting, and the inflation data arriving this week is either going to isolate them or give them company.
Oil Lower on Demand Forecasts Sends Silver a Mixed Signal Daily October Brent Crude Oil Futures WTI near $82 and Brent near $87.70 are both down roughly 1.5% Thursday after OPEC and the IEA lowered demand forecasts. Cheaper crude takes some pressure off headline inflation, which supports the Fed-hold trade silver is riding. The Strait of Hormuz stays restricted, so the decline has limits and inflation uncertainty has not gone away.
The demand side of the oil sell-off is the complication. Weaker crude driven by slowing consumption does not help the industrial side of silver’s trade. The metal is getting both sides of the oil move at once. Lower energy costs help the rate outlook while weaker demand keeps industrial buyers cautious.
What to Watch PPI at 12:30 GMT is the number that decides whether Wednesday’s CPI relief carries into a second session. Silver is consolidating after a strong run, not breaking down, but the dollar near a two-week high and September hike odds still near 35-40% say the rate trade is not settled yet.
The Fed’s hawks have not gone away and the inflation data landing this week is either reinforcing the case for a hold or rebuilding the case for a hike. Retail sales Friday add a third data point before the market closes for the week.
Silver stalled at the midpoint between the 50-day and 200-day moving averages and is trading below that pivot Thursday morning. The 200-day at $71.43 is the upside target if PPI cooperates and the dollar backs off. The 50-day at $61.42 is where sellers are pointed if the pivot continues to reject the rally.
More Information in our Economic Calendar.
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James Hyerczyk is a U.S. based seasoned technical analyst and educator with over 40 years of experience in market analysis and trading, specializing in chart patterns and price movement. He is the author of two books on technical analysis and has a background in both futures and stock markets.
Gold and silver are approaching important technical resistance levels following a strong rebound from yearly lows, over 400 points, while the US Dollar Index is testing the boundaries of its 2026 uptrend after its latest pullback near 99.30.
The combination is creating an increasingly important intermarket setup: precious metals are showing stretched daily momentum just as the dollar attempts to stabilize, raising the risk of a short-term reversal before the longer-term trends become clearer.
At the same time, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and fluctuating Federal Reserve rate expectations continue to influence the outlook across currencies, precious metals, and broader risk assets.
Key Catalysts Moving Markets Several macro and technical factors are converging as markets approach levels that could help define the dominant trends heading toward Q4 2026:
Federal Reserve expectations: Rate expectations continue to fluctuate, with markets facing further uncertainty ahead of the next US Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI reports due before the September Fed meeting. US-Iran tensions: Iran has indicated that no meaningful progress has been made in negotiations with the US, keeping geopolitical risk premiums elevated around Strait of Hormuz shipping and global energy markets. US Dollar resilience: The US Dollar Index continues to hold its broader 2026 uptrend, while USD/JPY is once again approaching the psychologically important 160 region. US equity momentum: Major US indices are trading with increasingly stretched longer-term momentum, raising the risk of short-term consolidation or corrective moves. Precious metals: Gold and silver are testing the projected targets of their June-August consolidation breakouts while daily momentum pushes deeper into overbought territory. Given the combination of geopolitical uncertainty, shifting Fed expectations, and increasingly stretched momentum, several markets are now testing technical tipping points that could define their dominant trends heading into Q4.
Gold Outlook: Another Long-Term Bullish Leg? Gold Price Outlook: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
From a six-month perspective, gold continues to rebound from one of its most significant long-term technical confluence zones in decades.
The area combines several important structural signals:
The 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1920 to 2026. The long-term trendline connecting major highs between 2016 and 2025. What previously acted as resistance has transitioned into one of gold's most important long-term support areas in 2026. The completion of a six-month shooting-star reversal pattern, highlighting the significance of the corrective risks that emerged following the record highs earlier this year. Given the importance of this technical confluence and the fragile US-Iran geopolitical backdrop, the longer-term structure remains particularly sensitive to the 3,930 support level.
A sustained break below 3,930 and the broader confluence zone would expose the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 3,500-3,460, an area that acted as major resistance throughout much of 2025.
Conversely, continued stabilization above this long-term support structure would preserve the broader bullish case, although short-term momentum conditions suggest another corrective phase may develop before confidence in a sustained long-term advance strengthens.
Gold Short-Term Trading Outlook Gold Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
From a daily perspective, gold is holding near the projected target of the June-August contracting consolidation breakout around 4,400, while remaining above the descending resistance that had guided price action since March 2026.
The breakout keeps the broader recovery structure intact, but increasingly stretched momentum raises the risk of a short-term pullback.
Gold Bullish Scenario A sustained break above 4,470 would shift both the short- and longer-term outlooks further in favor of buyers.
The level aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline, making it an important threshold for determining whether the current recovery can develop into a broader bullish advance.
A sustained move above 4,470 would expose:
4,530: 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. 4,700: 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. 4,900: 100% retracement and the final major technical test before confidence in a longer-term bullish continuation strengthens considerably. However, the daily RSI continues to push deeper into overbought territory, reaching levels last seen in January 2026 when gold was approaching its 5,600 record high.
This does not invalidate the bullish breakout, but it does increase the probability of short-term consolidation or a corrective pullback before another potential upside extension.
Gold Bearish Scenario On the downside, a break below 4,300 and 4,200 would weaken short-term momentum and expose the 4,140-4,160 region as another potential dip-buying zone.
Should this area fail to hold, gold could retest the broader 4,050-3,960-3,930 support zone.
A sustained breakdown below this region would reactivate the broader bearish scenario and expose:
3,880-3,840: Corresponding with the October 2025 lows. 3,700 3,500-3,460: The well-respected five-month resistance zone from 2025 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 1920-2026 secular advance. These longer-term support zones could provide significant reversal opportunities should a deeper correction develop.
As long as the US Dollar Index and crude oil remain firm, volatility and downside risks across currencies and precious metals are likely to remain elevated.
Silver Outlook: Another Long-Term Bullish Leg? Silver Price Outlook: 6-Month Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Silver's six-month chart highlights several important long-term technical developments following the sharp correction from its 2026 highs.
The broader structure includes:
A six-month shooting-star reversal candle, reflecting the strong rejection from record territory. A hold near the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance from 1930 to 2026. A test of the multi-decade trendline connecting the major highs recorded between 1980 and 2024. This long-term trendline is particularly important. After acting as structural resistance for decades, it could transition into major support should silver experience another breakdown below $55.
The broader support region between approximately $50 and $46 also aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the longer-term advance.
Should another corrective leg develop this year, this confluence could therefore represent an important long-term area to monitor for stabilization and a potential rebuilding of bullish momentum.
Silver Short-Term Trading Outlook Silver Price Outlook: Daily Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
From a daily perspective, silver is consolidating near the projected target of its June-August contracting consolidation breakout around $67.
The level also coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the May-June decline, increasing its importance as short-term resistance.
At the same time, daily momentum has pushed into overbought territory at levels last seen in May and January 2026, increasing the risk of consolidation or a short-term corrective move.
Silver Bullish Scenario A sustained breakout above $67 would strengthen the bullish recovery and expose the next Fibonacci resistance levels:
$70: 61.8% retracement. $74: 78.6% retracement. $79: 100% retracement. The $79 region would represent the final major technical test before confidence in a broader long-term bullish continuation strengthens.
Silver Bearish Scenario On the downside, a break back below the former resistance levels at $64, $61, and $60 would signal a deterioration in short-term momentum and increase the risk of a retest of the 2026 lows near $55.
A sustained breakdown below approximately $55.50 would expose the longer-term $50-$46 support region highlighted on the six-month chart.
Given the significance of this multi-decade technical confluence, the region could become an important area to monitor for stabilization should a deeper silver correction unfold.
US Dollar Index: The Key Intermarket Signal The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains one of the most important benchmarks for both foreign exchange and precious metals as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve expectations continue to evolve.
Despite its recent drawdown, DXY remains within the broader uptrend that has defined its 2026 advance.
Two levels remain particularly important:
101.80-102.00 resistance: A sustained breakout above this zone would strengthen the bullish dollar outlook and potentially increase downside and volatility risks across major currencies, gold, and silver. 99.30 support: A sustained breakdown below this level would weaken the 2026 bullish dollar structure and could provide additional support for currencies and precious metals. With USD/JPY also approaching the 160 region, the behavior of the dollar around these technical levels could provide important confirmation for the next move across precious metals.
With Fed expectations, geopolitical tensions, energy-market risks, and technical momentum all converging, short-term reversal risks remain elevated even as the longer-term precious-metals recovery remains technically intact.
Gold (XAU/USD) posts marginal losses on Thursday, after meeting resistance at the $4,450 area, yet with price action holding just above previous highs around $ 4,380 at the time of writing. The moderate US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures seen on Wednesday have increased pressure on front-end US Treasury yields, and the US Dollar, underpinning demand for precious metals.
Economists at DBS Group Research note US CPI came in "very much in line with market expectations, not strong enough or weak enough to break the DXY Index out of its lower 99.4-100.1 range set after USD/JPY’s sell-off from the joint US-Japan interventions."
Against this backdrop, DBS highlights a marked reassessment of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) policy outlook, and cautions that "America’s weakened fiscal position erodes the yield advantage of US bonds supporting the USD," suggesting that fiscal concerns are increasingly weighing on the Dollar’s traditional rate and yield appeal.
Technical Analysis: Gold is correcting lower from oversold levels
The XAU/USD pair is performing a consolidative correction after reaching heavily overbought levels on intraday Relative Strength Index (RSI) studies. The 4-hour RSI has retreated to 58.81, still at levels consistent with solid bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has drifted just below zero, hinting at waning upside pressure but not yet overturning the underlying bullish tone.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at Wednesday's highs at the $4,450 area ahead of the late-May highs near $4,600. On the downside, a break below Tuesday and Wednesday's lows in the $4,360 area would expose deeper supports around $4,230 (August 6,7 lows) and the top of July's trading range, between $4,200 and $4,220.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower around $64.90 on Thursday at the time of writing, down 0.64% on the day. The white metal consolidates after its recent advance as investors refrain from taking large positions ahead of the release of US producer inflation data. Despite the pullback, easing expectations for tighter monetary policy from the Federal Reserve (Fed) continue to provide support for Silver.
The latest United States (US) inflation data reinforced the view that price pressures are gradually easing. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 3.4% YoY in July from 3.5% in June. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components, eased to 2.5% from 2.6% previously, in line with expectations.
These figures reduce the need for the Fed to raise interest rates quickly. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 38% chance of a rate hike in September, down from 54% a week earlier. This reassessment of the monetary policy outlook is also weighing on short-term US Treasury yields, an environment that generally benefits non-yielding assets such as Silver.
Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July, due on Thursday at 12:30 GMT. Another sign of easing inflationary pressures could reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep rates unchanged and support Silver. Conversely, an upside surprise in producer prices could revive expectations of further monetary tightening and put additional pressure on the white metal.
XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.88, holding above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $64.78 and the 200-period SMA at $62.41, which keeps the near-term bias constructive despite the recent pullback from the mid-$66s. The loss of momentum is reflected in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing toward the mid-40s, hinting at a consolidative phase rather than outright bearish pressure while price remains supported by these underlying averages.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100-period SMA around $64.78, ahead of the horizontal floor near $63.00 and the deeper structural base provided by the 200-period SMA at $62.41. On the topside, XAG/USD would need to reclaim the former uptrend support line turned barrier around $66.65, followed by the horizontal resistance near $66.80, to revive the bullish sequence toward fresh highs.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
It's on to Jackson Hole next..Dollar stays more muted so far today amid lack of any post-CPI momentumGold fails to find that additional spark from US inflation dataUK Q2 preliminary GDP +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q expectedUK economy posts unexpected growth in June on stronger services sector showingSpain inflation nudges higher in July as both headline and core prices push upMarkets:
WTI crude oil down 2% to $81.58CHF leads, NZD lags on the dayEuropean equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%Gold down 0.4% to $4,388US 10-year yields down 1.7 bps to 4.675%Bitcoin down 0.2% to $63,387The US CPI report for July was rather benign and that's not giving market players all too much to work with as we get into the second half of the week.
The dollar recoverd from overnight lows late yesterday before trading rather sideways in European morning trade today. EUR/USD is keeping in a narrow range, up just 0.1% to 1.1535. Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains little changed at around 159.20-30 levels for the most part.
Looking to geopolitical developments, the US-Iran conflict continues to see little progress in general. As such, the broader market mood remains tentative at best even if oil prices are trading down today. WTI crude is lower by 2% to $81.58 currently. Meanwhile, bond yields are also off the highs with 10-year Treasury yields down 1.7 bps to 4.675% today.
Still, it's all not hinting at much besides a bit of a breather in the market mood in awaiting further headlines and developments.
Elsewhere, equities remain steady with some modest gains in European stocks while US futures are pushing a little higher on the day. Wall Street was able to keep light gains after the inflation data yesterday and are seen just a little higher today as well - at least for now.
Besides that, gold is falling off from its Asia highs and is down 0.4% to $4,388 as buyers continue to try and push for a firmer break above the $4,400 mark this week. But in the absence of a notable spark, we're not quite there yet.
It's on to the US weekly jobless claims and PPI data up next.
The British Pound (GBP) claws back its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) and flattens at around 1.3495 during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure with investors prioritizing easing fears of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes in the near term over ongoing Middle East tensions.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% lower to near 99.90.
Traders have trimmed Fed interest rate hike bets due to easing United States (US) upside inflation risks and growing downside labor market risks.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in the September meeting have increased to almost 60% from 30.4% seen a month ago.
US inflation data seen as broadly in line, giving the Fed room to stay on holdAnalysts at Commerzbank note that "July US CPI came in broadly in line with expectations," with the report indicating that "underlying inflation remains above the Fed's target but showed no broad-based re-acceleration, giving policymakers more room to remain on hold." Echoing that assessment, the Danske Bank research team highlights that "in the US, July CPI was broadly in line with expectations, with headline inflation at 3.4% y/y and core inflation at 2.5% y/y." They add that "the monthly details were also close to expectations, as headline inflation increased 0.1% m/m and core inflation increased 0.2% m/m," reinforcing the view that inflation is moving closer to target-consistent levels without signs of renewed upward momentum.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The headline and the core PPI growth are expected to have cooled down to 4.9% and 4.2% Year-on-Year (YoY), respectively.
Meanwhile, the recovery move in GBP/USD seems to be supported by the British currency too. The United Kingdom (UK) currency attracted bids after the release of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data during the day.
UK growth beats expectations but fails to shift BoE outlookAccording to TD Securities, "UK GDP surprised to the upside in June, coming in at 0.3% m/m (TDS: 0.0%; mkt: -0.1%; prior: 0.0%), and driven by strength in the services sector of 0.4% m/m (TDS/mkt: 0.0%; prior: 0.1%)." The bank notes that services growth was "broad-based, with only wholesale trade showing any real contraction." Despite the stronger monthly print, TD points out that "ultimately though, on a quarterly basis, UK economy grew in line with market expectations of 0.4% q/q, which is just above the BoE projections of 0.3% q/q," suggesting the upside surprise does little to alter the broader policy narrative.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3491. The pair holds a bullish near-term bias as spot advances above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.3441 and above the broken downward resistance trend line, now acting as support around 1.3457. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 58.5 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, which suggests steady upside momentum while the recent breakout above the trend barrier is being defended.
On the downside, immediate support is clustered between the trend-line break at 1.3457 and the 20-period EMA at 1.3441, with the current price area around 1.3491 acting as a near-term pivot. As long as GBP/USD holds above this support band, bulls could look for the pair to consolidate gains and extend the advance, while a daily close back below 1.3457 would hint at a false break and expose the EMA area as the next line of defense.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Gold (XAU/USD) comes under selling pressure on Thursday, erasing all the gains recorded in the previous day after hitting a fresh two-month high of $4,449 during Asian trading hours. At the time of writing, the precious metal trades around $4,386, down 0.52% on the day.
The pullback appears to be driven mainly by profit-taking, as market participants remain reluctant to chase prices higher amid an uncertain macroeconomic backdrop. The recent rally from near $4,000 has largely been fuelled by softer US economic data, including a broadly in-line Consumer Price Index (CPI) and weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) reports for July. These releases have reduced the chances of an imminent interest-rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 36% probability of a September rate hike, down from 54% a week ago. As a result, front-end US Treasury yields are falling for a third consecutive day, which could keep Gold’s downside limited in the near term.
Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) due at 12:30 GMT, which could provide fresh clues about underlying inflationary pressures at factory gates.
Analysts at MUFG/BTMU highlight that the CPI data “supports our view that Fed is likely to leave rates on hold in September,” although they caution that “it is unlikely that the US rate market will scale back rate hike expectations much further in the near-term given a hike still can’t be ruled out.” They also flag ongoing upside risks to the inflation outlook, warning that “the lack of progress to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and elevated energy prices continues to pose upside inflation risks in the near-term.”
At the same time, they argue that “the lack of clear forward guidance from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh makes it harder to assess how they are likely to set policy going forward,” leaving markets to navigate a still uncertain policy path despite the latest CPI print.
Against this backdrop, Gold’s next directional move will depend largely on incoming US economic data and its impact on Fed interest rate expectations. Meanwhile, developments in the Middle East also remain in focus and continue to drive volatility across financial markets.
Technical analysis: Buyers struggle to clear the 100-day SMA
XAU/USD is fluctuating just around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,387 and well below the 200-day SMA at $4,502, while it holds comfortably above the 50-day SMA at $4,146, leaving the metal trapped between medium-term support and longer-term overhead resistance and hinting at a capped, neutral tone.
On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (14) at 65 sits in bullish territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains positive, which suggests underlying buying interest.
On the upside, a sustained move above the 100-day SMA at $4,387 could expose the $4,500 psychological mark, which closely aligns with the 200-day SMA at $4,502.
On the downside, the first meaningful support is located at the 50-day SMA at $4,146, followed by the psychological and structural floor at $4,000.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Inflation FAQs Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls.
Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money.
Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.
The US Dollar (USD) remains practically flat against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Thursday, as fading hopes of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September have undermined speculative demand for the Greenback. The USD/JPY pair maintains its near-term upside trend intact, yet with bulls capped below the 50% Fibonacci retracement of July’s sell-off, at the 159.50 area.
Analysts at TD Securities highlight that "near-term inflation risks still skew higher, but Fed can be patient," noting that "markets moderately lowered hike pricing, but we are not in the clear just yet."
In the currency space, TD observes that "USD traded weaker as in-line CPI release still preserved bearish USD momentum," underscoring that the latest data have done little to disrupt the prevailing negative bias toward the Dollar.
Technical Analysis: US Dollar remains bullish but momentum fades
From a technical perspective, USD/JPY holds a bullish near-term bias, although intra-day momentum indicators reflect fading upside traction. The 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) at 57.22 leans constructive, but the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is flattening near the zero line, suggesting that buyers might be starting to give up.
The 50% Fibonacci retracement of late July's intervention-induced decline, at the 159.50 area, is capping upside attempts for now, closing the path towards the 160.00 psychological area, considered a line in the sand for Tokyo authorities, and the July 31 highs, near 160.90.
On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest upswing at 158.53 is containing downside attempts for now. Further down, the August 4 and 5 lows, near 157.30, and the cluster around the 23.6% retracement at 157.28 are likely to challenge bears.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%0.02%-0.06%0.01%0.11%0.27%-0.22%EUR0.09%0.12%0.02%0.07%0.22%0.35%-0.12%GBP-0.02%-0.12%-0.06%0.00%0.11%0.24%-0.25%JPY0.06%-0.02%0.06%0.05%0.18%0.28%-0.18%CAD-0.01%-0.07%0.00%-0.05%0.12%0.26%-0.23%AUD-0.11%-0.22%-0.11%-0.18%-0.12%0.14%-0.34%NZD-0.27%-0.35%-0.24%-0.28%-0.26%-0.14%-0.46%CHF0.22%0.12%0.25%0.18%0.23%0.34%0.46% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold price edged lower from new 9-week high in early Thursday trading as positive impact from lower inflation in July started to fade while investors focus on US Producer Price Index data (due later today) which would provide more details about the Fed’s policy outlook.
Recent strong acceleration higher started to show signs of fatigue after a triple failure to register daily close above cracked Fibo barrier at $4416 (50% retracement of $4889/$3942 bear-leg), with stretched daily studies contributing to scenario.
On the other hand, near-term action holds above the top of daily Ichimoku cloud ($4358) for the third consecutive day that keeps bulls intact for renewed attacks.
Firm break of $4416 pivot to generate initial signal of bullish continuation and expose next targets at $4501 (200DMA) and $4527 (Fibo 61.8%).
Conversely, violation of cloud top would risk further easing, with extended dips to find firm ground at $4260 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $3960/$4449 / rising 10DMA) to mark a heathy correction before bulls regain control.
US PPI is expected to ease significantly in July that may provide fresh impetus to the metal’s price (US July PPI 4.9% f/c vs June 5.5%; Core July 4.2% f/c vs June 4.7%) on release at or below expectations.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
XAU/USDGold price edged lower from new 9-week high in early Thursday trading as positive impact from lower inflation in July started to fade while investors focus on US Producer Price Index data (due later today) which would provide more details about the Fed’s policy outlook.
Recent strong acceleration higher started to show signs of fatigue after a triple failure to register daily close above cracked Fibo barrier at $4416 (50% retracement of $4889/$3942 bear-leg), with stretched daily studies contributing to scenario.
On the other hand, near-term action holds above the top of daily Ichimoku cloud ($4358) for the third consecutive day that keeps bulls intact for renewed attacks.
Firm break of $4416 pivot to generate initial signal of bullish continuation and expose next targets at $4501 (200DMA) and $4527 (Fibo 61.8%).
Conversely, violation of cloud top would risk further easing, with extended dips to find firm ground at $4260 zone (Fibo 38.2% of $3960/$4449 / rising 10DMA) to mark a heathy correction before bulls regain control.
US PPI is expected to ease significantly in July that may provide fresh impetus to the metal’s price (US July PPI 4.9% f/c vs June 5.5%; Core July 4.2% f/c vs June 4.7%) on release at or below expectations.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.48 per troy ounce, down 1.30% from the $65.32 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 9.29% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.88 on Thursday, up from 67.49 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
ING’s Francesco Pesole keeps a constructive stance on EUR/USD after recent US data, based on a view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to deliver further tightening. He targets 1.160 in coming weeks, 1.17 in autumn and 1.18 by year‑end, while warning that the lack of clear catalysts and Gulf risks could keep EUR/USD confined to tight ranges and low volatility.
Upside targets but tight trading ranges"We retain a preference for EUR/USD upside following the latest US data. That view is rooted in our Fed assessment outlined above, though it must be balanced against the risk that renewed escalation in the Gulf could provide fresh support to the dollar."
"Our target for the coming weeks remains 1.1600, followed by 1.1700 in autumn and 1.1800 by year-end. The absence of a clear catalyst, however, may keep EUR/USD range-bound for longer, while vols test recent lows."
"We will be watching closely for another test of 1.1500. Our bias is that buyers would re-emerge there, potentially nudging the dominant trading range higher to 1.1500-1.1600."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
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USD/JPY is holding its rebound near the 160 level, testing the possibility of reclaiming its 2026 uptrend as the US Dollar Index maintains its broader bullish structure.
In contrast, US equity indices are showing signs of slowing momentum. The Dow Jones is consolidating near the upper boundary of its 2022-2026 ascending channel and below the 54,700 record resistance, while longer-term momentum is flashing overbought conditions last seen in 2018.
The divergence between a resilient US dollar and increasingly stretched equity markets raises the risk of a short-term pullback across risk assets, particularly as geopolitical uncertainty remains a dominant market driver heading toward Q4.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by Forex.com.
The latest US CPI report showed headline inflation easing to the expected 3.4%, providing little reason for markets to materially reassess the Federal Reserve outlook. However, another inflation report and employment report are still due before the September Fed meeting, leaving the policy outlook sensitive to incoming data.
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks remain elevated. Crude oil continues to trade at elevated levels above the broader $70-$80 region, while the US dollar remains supported. Together, these conditions maintain short-term downside risks across major currency pairs, risk assets, and precious metals, while potentially supporting further upside across US dollar pairs.
Against this backdrop, USD/JPY and the Dow Jones are approaching technical levels that could help define the next directional move.
USD/JPY Price Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
USD/JPY has rebounded strongly after its pullback from the 164.00 confluence zone, an important resistance area aligning with the midpoint of the April 2025-July 2026 channel and the broader 2022-2026 ascending structure.
The decline found support near 155.00, where several technical signals converged:
The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-July 2026 advance. Daily momentum reaching oversold conditions last seen in 2024. The breakdown area around the 2025-2026 ascending channel. The rebound from this confluence has returned attention to the 159.50-160.00 region.
Should USD/JPY stabilize above 159.50 and reclaim 160.00, bullish momentum could strengthen, exposing 161.00, 161.80, and eventually 164.00.
These former technical levels may now act as resistance as the pair once again approaches price levels not seen since the 1980s.
A sustained breakout above 164.00 would represent a significant technical development, potentially opening the path toward the upper boundary of the broader ascending channel near 170, although such a move would likely require a substantial rebuilding of upside momentum.
Conversely, another rejection from the 159.50-160.00 region followed by a close below 155.00 would weaken the rebound and expose the next support levels at 152.00 and 149.00.
The latter remains a particularly important region, aligning with the lower boundary of the 2022-2026 channel and potentially defining the longer-term bullish versus bearish structure for USD/JPY.
From a broader intermarket perspective, the bullish dollar bias remains supported while geopolitical risks persist, DXY holds above its key 99.30 support, US Treasury yields remain elevated, and expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening remain in play.
A durable framework governing Middle East shipping routes, a DXY breakdown below 99.30, falling Treasury yields, and a further reduction in Fed tightening expectations would weaken that bullish case.
Dow Jones Outlook: Weekly Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
Both the weekly and monthly Dow Jones charts suggest that upside momentum is becoming increasingly stretched, with the index consolidating near a major long-term technical confluence.
The key resistance area combines:
The upper boundary of the ascending channel that has guided price action since 2022. The 100% Fibonacci extension of the April 2025-January 2026-March 2026 price cycle near 54,700. Longer-term overbought momentum conditions, increasing the risk of a corrective move if buyers fail to secure a breakout. From a fundamental perspective, optimism surrounding a potential US-Iran agreement has helped improve market sentiment. However, a lasting framework has yet to be established.
Geopolitical risk premiums therefore remain embedded across financial markets, leaving the Dow's rally vulnerable while the index remains below its major resistance zone.
A decisive breakout above 54,700-55,000 would strengthen the longer-term bullish outlook and signal that buyers remain in control despite stretched momentum.
Conversely, failure to clear this resistance could encourage profit-taking and a corrective pullback.
Should a deeper decline develop, the August low near 52,400-52,200 represents the next major support region, aligning approximately with the 23.6%-27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the March-August advance.
Shorter-term levels provide additional clues about which scenario may develop first.
Dow Jones Outlook: 4-Hour Time Frame – Log Scale
Source: TradingView
From a four-hour perspective, the Dow's consolidation is approaching a critical contraction point within what resembles a descending triangle formation.
The first downside trigger sits near 53,700.
A confirmed breakdown below this level would expose:
53,400, near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the July-August advance. 53,000, near the 50% retracement and the approximate target of the descending-triangle breakdown. A sustained break below 53,000 would increase the risk of a deeper correction toward the broader rising support connecting the higher lows established since April 2026, currently near 52,100.
This would also bring the 52,400-52,200 weekly support region back into focus.
On the upside, a bullish breakout from the consolidation above 54,000-54,200 would shift attention back toward the record high near 54,700.
That level remains critical.
Another rejection from 54,700 could reinforce short-term pullback risks, while a sustained breakout above the record high and ultimately 55,000 could open the path toward another longer-term advance.
Such a breakout would likely gain additional confirmation from an improving risk-on environment, easing geopolitical tensions, and a less hawkish Federal Reserve policy outlook.
USD/JPY and Dow Jones Outlook: Key Levels to Watch For now, the two markets are sending contrasting signals.
USD/JPY continues to rebuild bullish momentum toward 160, supported by broader US dollar resilience, while the Dow Jones remains near record highs but is showing increasingly stretched momentum beneath major long-term resistance.
For USD/JPY, 159.50-160.00 is the immediate upside test, followed by 161.00, 161.80, and 164.00. A move back below 155.00 would instead weaken the recovery.
For the Dow, 53,700 represents the first short-term downside trigger, while 54,700-55,000 remains the defining resistance zone for the longer-term bullish scenario.
Until these levels are decisively resolved, short-term pullback risks across risk assets remain elevated, while the US dollar retains a relatively stronger technical bias.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforms its major currency peers, trading 0.45% down at around 0.5830 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The antipodean faces sharp selling pressure as downwardly revised Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) two-year inflation expectations in the third quarter this year have raised doubts over expectations of interest rate hikes.
Earlier in the day, RBNZ Q3 inflation expectations for the two-year timeframe arrived lower at 2.34% Year-on-Year (YoY) from prior projections of 2.53% released in the previous quarter this year.
Lower New Zealand (NZ) inflation expectations are expected to raise doubts over expectations of an interest rate hike by the RBNZ at the September policy meeting.
Earlier, financial markets were seen confident about the RBNZ raising policy rates in September.
RBNZ seen retaining hawkish bias despite mixed labour dataAccording to TD Securities, the latest labour market figures, while mixed, are unlikely to derail the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s tightening bias. The bank argues that “despite the mixed report today, we believe the RBNZ has the room to hike again by 25bps in September given that economic activity continues to recover in Q3,” suggesting policymakers can look through near-term labour market noise as long as the broader recovery remains intact.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) holds onto Wednesday’s gains, driven by ongoing Middle East tensions.
On the domestic front, both the United States (US) headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) cooled down, as expected, in July, which could dampen the strength in the US Dollar.
NZD/USD Technical Analysis
NZD/USD extends its correction to near the downward-sloping trend line at 0.5827 after slipping below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at 0.5842.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50.1 points to neutral momentum after the recent pullback from the 0.5890 area.
On the topside, the intraday high at 0.5870 is the immediate resistance, which needs to be broken decisively to revisit the August 7 high at 0.5907. On the downside, first support is seen at the upward-sloping trendline break level at 0.5827; a failure there would likely expose the pair to a deeper correction toward 0.5800, followed by the July 29 low at 0.5761.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
RBNZ FAQs The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The US dollar strengthened against commodity currencies following the release of July US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in at 3.4%, exactly in line with forecasts and down from the previous 3.5%, while prices rose by 0.1% month-on-month. Core inflation also matched expectations, at 0.2% month-on-month and 2.5% year-on-year. Despite the continued easing in price pressures, the report did not deliver any additional disinflationary surprise to the market. Inflation is gradually moving towards the Fed’s target, but the current pace of decline is still insufficient to significantly strengthen expectations of an imminent easing of monetary policy. Against this backdrop, the US dollar managed to recover some of its earlier losses.
USD/CAD In USD/CAD, a bullish engulfing pattern is forming after a test of the key support level around 1.3900. Technical analysis of USD/CAD points to the possibility of a move higher towards 1.3980–1.4000. A break below yesterday’s low could trigger a resumption of the downtrend, with potential targets in the 1.3770–1.3840 area.
Key events for USD/CAD:
today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Producer Price Index (PPI); today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims; today at 15:40 (GMT+3): speech by Thomas Barkin, member of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
AUD/USD AUD/USD buyers attempted to test the key resistance level around 0.7100 today. The attempt failed, with the price retreating sharply from the level and forming a doji pattern. The appearance of a doji near resistance indicates buyer indecision and increases the likelihood of a corrective decline towards 0.7020–0.7040. The bearish scenario would be invalidated by a firm break and close above 0.7100.
Key events for AUD/USD:
tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock; tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australian housing finance data; tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US core retail sales.
Overall, the inflation data allowed the US dollar to recover some of its earlier losses, but did not provide the market with sufficient grounds for a new sustained move. The further dynamics of AUD/USD and USD/CAD will depend on today’s US producer-price and labour-market data. Stronger-than-expected figures could support the US dollar and increase pressure on commodity currencies, while weaker data could revive expectations of a more dovish Fed policy and limit the dollar’s recovery.
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The Pound-Dollar exchange rate is holding below $1.35 after resilient UK GDP data, with Sterling unable to make significant headway against a broadly steady US Dollar. The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate remained under modest pressure on Thursday morning despite stronger-than-expected monthly UK growth data.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3481, down approximately 0.12% on the day after touching an intraday high just above $1.3500.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.348267 (-0.11%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.151794 (-0.09%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 159.38744 (+0.04%)
DAILY RECAP The Pound received some support after the Office for National Statistics reported that the UK economy expanded by 0.4% during the second quarter.
The quarterly increase matched consensus forecasts and represented a slowdown from 0.6% growth during the opening three months of 2026.
The more encouraging element came from the monthly figures, with GDP increasing 0.3% in June compared with expectations for no growth.
May's estimate was also revised to show that the economy was unchanged rather than expanding 0.1%.
Services provided the main support during June, recording a 0.4% increase as activity benefited from the temporary Gulf ceasefire, the start of the World Cup and favourable weather.
The figures indicated that the UK economy remained relatively resilient during the first half of 2026, although there are still concerns that momentum will weaken during the second half of the year.
The US Dollar has resisted further selling pressure despite investors cutting expectations for another Federal Reserve interest-rate increase.
US headline inflation slowed from 3.5% to 3.4% in July, while core inflation eased from 2.6% to 2.5%.
Markets subsequently reduced the implied probability of a September Federal Reserve rate increase to around 40%, compared with 54% before the inflation release.
Nevertheless, the Dollar index remained close to the 100 level on Thursday morning.
The US currency has continued to attract some defensive demand amid renewed uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, limiting the ability of GBP/USD to capitalise on the more favourable interest-rate backdrop.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: $1.35 Remains Key Resistance The latest UK GDP data should offer Sterling some protection, particularly as the stronger June reading reduces immediate fears of a sharp economic slowdown.
However, the muted GBP/USD reaction suggests that much of the resilience in UK activity was already reflected in market expectations.
The $1.3500 level remains the immediate barrier for GBP/USD.
A sustained move above this level would bring this week's highs around $1.3540 back into focus, followed by $1.36 if Dollar sentiment deteriorates further.
Conversely, failure to regain $1.35 could encourage renewed selling, with initial support around $1.3450 followed by the $1.3420 area.
Attention will now turn back towards the United States, with retail sales and consumer sentiment data likely to influence expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve.
Further evidence of weaker US demand could reduce September rate-hike expectations again and give GBP/USD another opportunity to challenge $1.35.
Stronger US data, however, would reinforce the Dollar's current resilience and leave Sterling vulnerable to further modest losses.
Key Points:Softer U.S. CPI has reduced pressure for additional Fed tightening, making PPI the next major inflation test for the dollar.U.S. PPI could reshape September Fed expectations if producer inflation differs materially from the recent CPI signal.EUR/USD has been rejected near $1.1569 trendline resistance, putting the $1.1500 support area back in focus.DXY is attempting to recover from $99.42 trendline support but still needs to clear its 50-day EMA near $100.29.GBP/USD has slipped below the $1.3515 pivot, with the $1.3474–$1.3437 area becoming the key downside support zone.
In this article:GBP/USD
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GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD
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EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: PPI and UK GDP Reshape FX Outlook Today’s main driver of the US dollar is the reassessment of FED policy after the soft US consumer inflation numbers for July. The headline CPI increased by only 0.1% (month on month) and annual inflation slowed down to 3.4%, further dampening expectations for an FED rate hike in September. The focus now is on the release of the PPI (Production Price Index) scheduled for Thursday. Another soft reading will support the FED’s decision to pause. The FED will be more relaxed with higher inflation concerns if the PPI numbers show persistence in pipeline inflation.
The euro is trading in an environment reflective of mixed fundamentals. The current holding patterns from the ECB after the policy unchanged announcement in July, together with some stabilization of the eurozone activity in manufacturing, are in place. The eonjomy’s lingering stress from the Middle East energy crisis and weak household demand, are still evident. Investors will be watching to see if the softer US inflation narrows the policy gap more between the FED and ECB, which is a major currency driver.
Sterling got a new domestic catalyst from the release of the second quarter UK GDP that showed an expansion of 0.4% over the previous quarter. This was following the 0.6% expansion in the first quarter. The data provides some evidence that the expansion of the UK economy was sustained throughout the period of elevated energy costs and geopolitical tensions.
For the Bank of England, stronger growth makes policy more difficult. Inflation is starting to fall, but Energy costs means it could easily get worse again. Luckily for them, strong activity gives policymakers the ability to focus on price stability, effects of which should be seen over time.
For August 13, the immediate FX focus is U.S. PPI. Weaker PPI could strengthen the possibility of a longer pause from the Fed, while higher PPI could make a more hawkish September scenario likely.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Attempts Recovery Above $99.42 Trendline Support Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index is currently at $100.03, attempting to climb above the rising trendline and horizontal support at $99.42 that had previously acted as repeated support. Price has climbed above the 100 day EMA at $99.91; however, the 50 day EMA at $100.29 still acts as resistance. Recent candles show some buying pressure, but the index has yet to break above the resistance cluster to confirm the start of a stronger recovery.
RSI is around 44, on the path to recovery after being in weaker territory, but continues to be below 50. Resistance zones are at $100.06, $100.29, and $100.82. For support zones, we have $99.42, $98.76, and $98.18. From my perspective, the recovery continues to be valid as long as support is found above the trend line. If support is found above $100.29, I would lean more toward an extension to $100.82.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Breaks Below $1.3515 Pivot as Momentum Weakens GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is trading at $1.3483 and has broken below the $1.3515 pivot area and the trendline that provided support to the recent movement. While price is above the 50 EMA at $1.3474, and the 100 EMA at $1.3443, the breakdown of the recovery structure has not occurred. The momentum has definitely shifted to the downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved down to around 46 and recently has lost bullish pressure as price was rejected from the $1.3515-$1.3540 area. Price movement resistance can be expected at $1.3515, $1.3559, $1.3601, while support can be expected at $1.3474 with stronger support expected at $1.3437, $1.3401, and $1.3343. Price action in GBP/USD has to break $1.3515 in order to retain the bullish scenario. Without that, emphasis will remain focused on the $1.3437-$1.3474zone.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Rejected at Descending Trendline Near $1.1570 EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview Currently at $1.1520 on the 4 hour chart, EUR/USD rejected the descending trendline again at $1.1569. The market is now heading down towards the 50 EMA at $1.1525, where the 100 EMA at $1.1499 is the next major dynamic support. The latest candles show the loss of upside momentum, with RSI heading down to 42, and the trendline, at the same time, showing loss of bullish momentum.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.1569, $1.1621, and $1.1674. On the other hand, $1.1500 and $1.1456 are the key support levels. In my opinion, the market remains bearish as long as it is trading below the descending trendline. A break above $1.1569 will put the bullish market back in play. However, if the market falls beneath $1.1500, the $1.1456 level may become active.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
USD/JPY rose to 159.53 on Thursday, returning towards the 160.00 area as the Japanese yen weakened. The move has kept markets on alert for possible further intervention by the authorities amid persistent currency weakness.
Fundamental factors continue to weigh on the yen: a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.
The yen failed to gain much traction even after softer US inflation data, which eased pressure on the Federal Reserve and reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.
In Japan, producer prices rose 7.2% year-on-year in July, slightly below the 7.3% recorded in June and the 7.4% forecast. At the same time, the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the July meeting noted growing risks of accelerating inflation, with one board member acknowledging that the pace of rate hikes could quicken.
Technical Analysis
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 159.52. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move higher to at least 160.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upward towards 80, indicating short-term upside momentum.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 159.52. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move higher to at least 160.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upward towards 80, indicating short-term upside momentum.
Conclusion USD/JPY has moved back into positive territory as the yen’s post-intervention gains continue to fade. Despite softer US inflation data reducing pressure on the Fed, the yen has failed to capitalise, underscoring the persistent fundamental headwinds – interest rate differentials, fiscal risks, and high energy costs – that continue to weigh on the currency. Domestic producer price data came in slightly below expectations, but the Bank of Japan’s July meeting summary pointed to rising inflation risks and the potential for faster rate hikes. Technically, USD/JPY appears poised for further upside towards 160.50, with the market remaining on high alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities as the pair approaches the key 160.00 level.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note GBP/USD briefly traded above 1.3535 to 1.3540 before slipping back to close at 1.3496. Intraday, the pair is seen range-trading between 1.3475 and 1.3525. Over 1–3 weeks, they maintain a mildly constructive view, with scope to test 1.3555 but limited prospects for sustained gains beyond that level.
Pound-Dollar holds in tight consolidation band"24-HOUR VIEW: While we indicated yesterday that “there is a chance for GBP to edge higher,” we pointed out that “any advance is likely to be contained within a 1.3490/1.3535 range.” During the early NY session, GBP rose briefly above 1.3535, printing a high of 1.3540 before dropping back down to a low of 1.3488. GBP closed little changed at 1.3496 (-0.09%). The current price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase, most likely between 1.3475 and 1.3525."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a slightly positive GBP view since last Monday. In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 1.3510), we indicated that while GBP “could test 1.3555, based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely.” Yesterday, GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 before pulling back to close at 1.3496 (-0.09%). Upward momentum is starting to slow, and a breach of 1.3460 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that GBP has entered a range-trading phase."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold – Chart Gold is currently at $4,379 for the day chart. With a strong recovery from the July lows, price is breaking above both the 50-day EMA at $4,223 and the 100-day EMA at $4,322. An improvement of both of these EMAs shows an improvement in medium-term momentum. The current rally is also reaching the resistance at $4,448, which is also the upper boundary of the current retracement structure.
Recent candlesticks have been forming with some hesitation below this level. This is more of a profit taking consolidation range as opposed to a bearish reversal.
RSI is in the strong bull zone at 65. Immediate resistance is at $4,448 with $4,575 and $4,666 as the next areas of resistance. First meaningful support comes in at $4,332 with $4,262 and $4,205 as the next areas. In addition, price holding above $4,332 maintains the recovery structure while a break above $4,448 gives a bullish continuation towards $4,575.
USD/JPY rose to 159.53 on Thursday, returning towards the 160.00 area as the Japanese yen weakened. The move has kept markets on alert for possible further intervention by the authorities amid persistent currency weakness.
Fundamental factors continue to weigh on the yen: a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.
The yen failed to gain much traction even after softer US inflation data, which eased pressure on the Federal Reserve and reduced the likelihood of an imminent rate hike.
In Japan, producer prices rose 7.2% year-on-year in July, slightly below the 7.3% recorded in June and the 7.4% forecast. At the same time, the Bank of Japan’s summary of opinions from the July meeting noted growing risks of accelerating inflation, with one board member acknowledging that the pace of rate hikes could quicken.
Technical analysis
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 159.52. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move higher to at least 160.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upward towards 80, indicating short-term upside momentum.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has completed an upward move to 159.52. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. An upside breakout would open the way for a move higher to at least 160.50. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line above 50 and trending upward towards 80, indicating short-term upside momentum.
ConclusionUSD/JPY has moved back into positive territory as the yen’s post-intervention gains continue to fade. Despite softer US inflation data reducing pressure on the Fed, the yen has failed to capitalise, underscoring the persistent fundamental headwinds – interest rate differentials, fiscal risks, and high energy costs – that continue to weigh on the currency. Domestic producer price data came in slightly below expectations, but the Bank of Japan’s July meeting summary pointed to rising inflation risks and the potential for faster rate hikes. Technically, USD/JPY appears poised for further upside towards 160.50, with the market remaining on high alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities as the pair approaches the key 160.00 level.
TD Securities’ Bart Melek notes Gold extended gains after the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations, reinforcing a dovish narrative around Fed Chair Warsh. With prices near $4,434/oz and resistance just below $4,500/oz, Melek sees Gold staying near the upper end of a higher trading range. However, he argues it is still premature to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz.
Fed path keeps gold contained"With upside momentum driving prices to $4,434/oz and CTA buy triggers sitting near $4,468/ oz, the yellow metal may soon challenge resistance just below $4,500/oz."
"A decisive move above that level would likely require stronger confirmation that the Fed will not raise rates this year."
"As a result, gold will likely remain near the upper end of its current trading range, which has shifted meaningfully higher since July, though it is still too early to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz."
"Until then, if it happens at all, the gold market should stay in the upper bound of the recent higher trading range."
"If no new inflation pressures materialize, gold is off to the races and a 5-handle is a very real possibility."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-New Zealand Dollar could extend above NZ$2.30 if UK growth holds firm, although stronger RBNZ rate expectations may help the Kiwi recover. The Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate climbed to a two-week high on Thursday as deteriorating global risk appetite weighed on the risk-sensitive ‘Kiwi’.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD was trading around NZ$2.3044, up approximately 0.3% from Wednesday's opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.3051 (+0.30%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.968098 (+0.22%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.586233 (-0.27%)
DAILY RECAP:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) came under pressure as a deterioration in global risk sentiment weighed on the risk-sensitive currency.
Investor confidence weakened amid growing concerns that US-Iran ceasefire negotiations had reached an impasse.
Despite previous optimism from US officials that an agreement could be days away, recent rhetoric from Tehran and remarks from US President Donald Trump suggested the two sides remained at odds in several areas.
The prospect of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed global oil prices back towards US$90 per barrel and weighed on the ‘Kiwi’ as traders rotated away from higher-risk assets and towards traditional safe havens.
Meanwhile, while the Pound (GBP) appreciated against the New Zealand Dollar, it traded sideways against most of its other major peers.
In the continued absence of notable UK economic releases, Sterling struggled to find fresh impetus.
GBP sentiment was also subdued by analysis from the Verdant thinktank suggesting that multiple heatwaves have cost the UK economy US$4bn in lost output so far this year.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Improving Risk Appetite to Underpin the ‘Kiwi’? Looking ahead, the UK's latest GDP figures are expected to provide the next major catalyst for the Pound to New Zealand Dollar exchange rate.
The preliminary estimate for second-quarter growth is forecast to show the UK economy expanded by 0.4%, down from 0.6% in the first quarter.
Although slower than at the start of the year, a 0.4% expansion would still represent a healthy pace of growth and could extend Sterling's upside if investors see it as encouraging the Bank of England to tighten monetary policy later this year.
Meanwhile, the ‘Kiwi’ could receive support if an increase in New Zealand business inflation expectations strengthens Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate hike bets.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD briefly spiked to 1.1562 on the US CPI release before reversing to 1.1524. They now see further pullback risks contained within 1.1510–1.1545 intraday and judge that upward momentum has faded, with the pair likely to range-trade between 1.1480 and 1.1580 over the coming 1–3 weeks.
Euro-Dollar momentum fades into consolidation"24-HOUR VIEW: After EUR traded in a quiet manner two days ago and closed largely unchanged at 1.1540, we highlighted the following yesterday: “The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect EUR to trade between 1.1530 and 1.1560. That said, should EUR break above 1.1560, it could trigger a quick rise toward 1.1580.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. EUR spiked to a high of 1.1562 during the NY session and then pulled back sharply to close slightly lower at 1.1524 (-0.14%). Further pullback is not ruled out, but given that downward momentum has not increased significantly, any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.1510/1.1545 range."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Two days ago (11 Aug, spot at 1.1545), we highlighted that “the hurdle for further gains has risen,” and EUR “must close above 1.1580 before a move to 1.1600 and beyond can be expected." Yesterday, EUR rose briefly to 1.1562 and then pulled back to a low of 1.1519. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.1515 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. EUR appears to have entered a range-trading phase. For the time being, we expect EUR to trade within a 1.1480/1.1580 range."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.17% lower at around 0.7050 against the US Dollar (USD) during the early European trading session on Thursday. The Aussie pair extends Wednesday’s correction, which started after revisiting the two-month high near 0.7090, as financial markets remain unconvinced by the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish tone.
On Tuesday, the RBA left its Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 4.35%, as expected, and explicitly said that the central bank won’t hesitate to raise interest rates further, citing upside inflation risks.
Contrary to the RBA’s hawkish remarks, financial markets believe that the RBA’s appetite to tighten monetary conditions appears very weak.
Analysts at Standard Chartered note that, at the press conference, Governor Bullock “talked up the uncertainty around the RBA’s central forecasts and did not rule out the need for more policy tightening in the immediate future if upside inflation risks materialise.”
Despite this hawkish nuance, Standard Chartered emphasises that “our base case remains no more RBA rate hikes in the foreseeable future.” The bank cautions, however, that “the risk to our view is skewed towards a hike in Q4 if demand does not slow sufficiently or if energy prices revisit recent highs, exacerbating both capacity and price pressures.”
Ultimately, “easing labour-market conditions, if sustained, should help contain underlying wage and price pressures in the economy,” supporting their view that further tightening is not the central scenario even as the RBA keeps its options open," Standard Chartered added.
Meanwhile, an upbeat US Dollar, despite traders paring back hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets for the September meeting, is also hurting the Aussie pair.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD trades lower at around 0.7050, but is holding a constructive bullish bias as it remains within an upward parallel channel. The pair is trading above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7024, which suggests underlying demand, while the channel top near 0.7077 caps the immediate topside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56.69 stays in positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is intact though not overstretched.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA at 0.7024, ahead of the lower boundary of the rising channel around 0.6951, with a deeper structural floor toward 0.6866. On the topside, a sustained break above the channel resistance at 0.7077 would open the way for further gains within the broader ascending structure. Above 0.7077, major hurdles are the round-level resistance at 0.7100, followed by the June 5 high at 0.7144.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator RBA Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announces its interest rate decision at the end of its eight scheduled meetings per year. If the RBA is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is usually bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Likewise, if the RBA has a dovish view on the Australian economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is seen as bearish for AUD.
The EUR/USD pair holds steady near 1.1520 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. US inflation cooled on a year-over-year basis for a second straight month, easing pressure on the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates as soon as next month. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report for July is due later on Thursday.
Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday revealed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.4% YoY in July, compared to 3.5% in the previous reading. Additionally, the core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased 2.5% YoY in July, versus 2.6% prior. Both readings came in line with expectations.
Traders further cut the chance for a September Fed rate hike, lowering the odds to 40%, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Fed officials will get August CPI and jobs reports before their September meeting.
Nonetheless, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and create a headwind for the major pair. Reuters reported that the US and Iran remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree a permanent end to the war in the Gulf. A senior Iranian official said that there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it.
Euro holds steady as post-FOMC consolidation persistsAnalysts at Scotiabank observe that the Euro is “entering Wednesday’s NA session flat vs. the USD while showing a mixed performance against the G10 currencies overall.” They note that the single currency “has spent much of August consolidating within a tight, flat range, lacking a catalyst in the period following the FOMC meeting in late July,” underscoring the absence of a clear directional driver in recent trading.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD keeps a bearish vibe under the 100-day SMA In the daily chart, EUR/USD holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the near-term bias bearish despite a modestly constructive tone in momentum, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 56. Price remains above the 20-day Bollinger middle band SMA, suggesting downside is cushioned for now, while the upper Bollinger band near marks a broader cap on recovery attempts.
On the topside, immediate resistance aligns at the 100-day SMA at 1.1565, ahead of the upper Bollinger band around 1.1612, where selling interest could strengthen if tested. On the downside, initial support is located at the 1.1500 psychological level, followed by the 20-day Bollinger middle band at 1.1475. A deeper bearish extension is likely to target the lower Bollinger band near 1.13375 if the current floor gives way.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
TL;DR: EUR/USD has nearly everything bulls could ask for — a weaker Dollar, fading Fed hike bets, and rising ECB hike odds — yet the pair hasn’t broken out, because Euro itself isn’t confirming the move broadly across its other crosses.
The Dollar Has Given EUR/USD Every Reason to Rise EUR/USD has been handed almost everything bulls could reasonably ask for over the past week. July payrolls unexpectedly contracted, forcing markets to scale back Fed tightening bets. July CPI then showed core inflation returning to 2.5%, back at its pre-Iran-war level. September Fed hold probability has consequently risen from around 45% a week ago to roughly 60%. The Dollar has given EUR/USD plenty of room to move higher.
The Euro Side Should Be Helping Too Renewed oil surge has pushed the expected probability of a September ECB hike above 90%, up from around 70% a month earlier. The obvious counterargument is that the ECB may be making a policy mistake by tightening into weak growth, eventually turning higher rates into a negative for the Euro. Yet the latest activity data don’t provide much support for that conclusion — the Eurozone PMI Composite strengthened for a second straight month in July, with Germany also showing improvement. For now at least, the economy doesn’t look weak enough to explain the Euro’s reluctance to rally.
So What’s Actually Holding EUR/USD Back? There may not be one hidden macro catalyst. The more telling explanation is simpler: Dollar weakness is doing its part, but the Euro itself isn’t attracting enough broad demand to confirm the move. EUR/USD can rise because the Dollar falls, but a durable breakout becomes much easier when the Euro is also strengthening across crosses. So far, that confirmation is missing.
That puts EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, and EUR/CAD under the spotlight. Declines in those crosses would suggest Euro weakness is broadening beneath the surface and could eventually drag EUR/USD lower even if Fed expectations remain relatively Dollar-negative. Conversely, stabilization or recovery across Euro crosses would make EUR/USD’s current hesitation easier to dismiss as consolidation before another push higher. The question is therefore becoming less about whether the Dollar has weakened enough, and more about whether the Euro can finally take advantage.
ActionForex’s Technical View on EUR/USD The technical picture captures that uncertainty neatly. The base case remains that the broader decline from 1.2081 completed a three-wave correction at 1.1323, after support emerged around the 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081, at 1.1353. Bullish divergence in the daily MACD reinforces that interpretation.
But EUR/USD still has to break the 1.1621 cluster resistance — the 38.2% retracement of 1.2081 to 1.1323, at 1.1613 — decisively. A sustained move through that zone would provide the confirmation price action has so far lacked, strengthening the case that the rebound from 1.1323 is developing into something larger.
Until then, failure matters. Rejection from 1.1613/21, followed by a break of 1.1481, would flip the interpretation, suggesting the rebound from 1.1323 was only corrective and that the larger decline from 1.2081 is ready to resume through 1.1323.
EUR/USD still has a bullish setup, but not yet a bullish confirmation. The Dollar has opened the door; now the Euro has to walk through it.
Key Takeaways September Fed hold odds have risen from 45% to 60% in a week, driven by contracting payrolls and core CPI returning to its pre-war 2.5% level. September ECB hike odds have risen above 90% on renewed oil strength, with Eurozone PMI data showing no evidence of growth weak enough to undercut that case. EUR/USD’s stalled breakout likely reflects a lack of confirmation from Euro crosses (EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD, EUR/CAD) rather than any single hidden catalyst. A decisive break above the 1.1613-1.1621 resistance cluster would confirm the rebound from 1.1323 is developing into a larger move higher. Rejection at 1.1613/21 followed by a break of 1.1481 would instead suggest the rebound was only corrective, reopening the broader decline from 1.2081 toward 1.1323.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
EUR/JPY extends its losses for the third successive day, trading around 183.60 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.11 reinforces a neutral-to-soft momentum backdrop rather than a decisive directional push.
The EUR/JPY cross is retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) while trading just above the nine-day EMA. This split in moving averages suggests the currency cross is capped by medium-term trend resistance despite nearby short-term support.
The EUR/JPY cross faces immediate support at its nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 183.49. A decisive break below this short-term indicator would strengthen the prevailing bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its eight-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3. If downward momentum continues, the next key technical target lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.
A turn to the upside would see EUR/JPY cross head toward primary resistance at its 50-day EMA near 184.51. Clearing this medium-term hurdle could signal a broader bullish resurgence, opening the path for the pair to retest the area surrounding its all-time peak of 187.95 set on April 17.
Analysts at Scotiabank note that, while "there have been no comments from FinMin Katayama or ViceMin Mimuri," local media coverage is increasingly "highlighting the potential for tension between US officials and Japan’s government as the US pushes for BoJ tightening."
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%-0.01%-0.08%0.03%0.17%0.46%0.03%EUR0.00%0.00%-0.06%0.00%0.17%0.44%0.03%GBP0.00%-0.01%-0.06%0.00%0.19%0.44%0.01%JPY0.08%0.06%0.06%0.09%0.24%0.48%0.08%CAD-0.03%-0.00%-0.01%-0.09%0.15%0.42%-0.01%AUD-0.17%-0.17%-0.19%-0.24%-0.15%0.28%-0.15%NZD-0.46%-0.44%-0.44%-0.48%-0.42%-0.28%-0.39%CHF-0.03%-0.03%-0.01%-0.08%0.00%0.15%0.39% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,662.15 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,682.63 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,033.60 per tola from PHP 101,272.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,662.15
10 Grams
86,621.59
Tola
101,033.60
Troy Ounce
269,423.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 530.57 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 532.22 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,188.48 per tola from SAR 6,207.66 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
530.57
10 Grams
5,305.73
Tola
6,188.48
Troy Ounce
16,503.55
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 519.20 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 520.58 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 6,055.84 per tola from AED 6,071.92 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
519.20
10 Grams
5,191.99
Tola
6,055.84
Troy Ounce
16,148.51
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,279.89 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,392.88 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 458,160.80 per tola from PKR 459,470.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,279.89
10 Grams
392,806.90
Tola
458,160.80
Troy Ounce
1,221,742.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 578.10 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 579.45 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,742.87 per tola from MYR 6,758.55 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
578.10
10 Grams
5,780.89
Tola
6,742.87
Troy Ounce
17,981.09
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,485.65 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,516.60 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 157,303.50 per tola from INR 157,655.00 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,485.65
10 Grams
134,862.00
Tola
157,303.50
Troy Ounce
419,454.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory near 112.35 during the early European session on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders are on high alert for further intervention from authorities. Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak later on Friday.
Goldman Sachs Research strategist Karen Fishman said that the JPY’s gains are now fading as the intervention is “not a sustainable fix ... ultimately just buys some time.”
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) highlighted growing risks of accelerating inflation in its summary of opinions from the July meeting, with one board member suggesting that the pace of interest rate hikes could accelerate. The BoJ may consider an additional interest rate increase at its next September policy meeting, following a hike in June, in response to rising risks of higher inflation, according to Jiji.
Rare US-Japan FX action underscores shifting Yen dynamicsDBS Group Research underscores the unusual nature of the latest currency support measures, noting that “co-ordinated FX intervention between the US and Japan is rare, with the last joint intervention occurring 15 years ago to weaken an excessively over-valued JPY in the aftermath of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake.” The team highlights that this historical precedent throws the current episode into sharper relief, with policymakers now deploying similarly uncommon tools in response to pronounced Yen weakness rather than strength.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY leans into a bearish near-term bias as it slips back under the Bollinger Bands 20-period simple moving average and remains capped by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price is still comfortably above the Bollinger lower band, so the broader uptrend is not yet threatened, but the latest Relative Strength Index (14) reading at 48.96 suggests momentum has turned neutral-to-soft after the recent rally stalled near the upper band zone.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned at the Bollinger Bands 20-period SMA middle line around 112.70, followed by the 100-day SMA at 112.90. A sustained break above these levels would be needed to re-open the path toward the July 16 high of 113.88, en route to the upper Bollinger band near 115.45.
On the downside, the primary support to watch sits at the August 10 low of 111.63. The next contention level to watch is the August 7 low of 110.77, followed by the Bollinger lower band at 110.00, where a decisive move would hint at a deeper corrective phase within the broader trend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
The Dollar index has pulled itself up despite the softer CPI release yesterday, indicating near-term bullishness on a break above 100. That said, the Euro, EURJPY, Aussie, and Pound could decline towards 1.15 and lower, 183/182, 0.70/69 and 1.33, respectively, in the near term. USDJPY can aim for 160-161 while above 159. EURINR is holding below resistance near 110.30 and can soon fall towards 109-108. Aussie and Pound can test 0.71 and 1.3550 before being rejected. USDCNY can target 6.70 in the medium term. USDINR could trade below resistance at 95.50 for now. A range trade between 95.50 and 95.10 looks likely.
The US Treasury Yields remain lower. They have room to test their support and then resume their broader uptrend eventually. Data release yesterday showed that the US Headline CPI has come down sharply to 3.3% (YoY) in July from 3.46% in June. The German Yields have bounced back from their lows. Supports are there to limit their downside. Outlook remains bullish, and the yields can rise more. The 10Yr GoI has come back into the narrow range. We retain our bearish view to see a downside break of this range.
Global equities remain mixed. Dow is drifting lower towards 53000 while continuing to trade within the broader 53000-55000 range. DAX remains constructive and can rise towards 27000-27500 despite struggling to sustain above 26500. Nifty has shown a good recovery from recent lows and can move higher towards 24500 and above while support near 24350-24300 holds. Nikkei has turned strongly bullish after breaking above 68000 and can extend its rally towards 70000. Shanghai remains near key resistance around 3970, with a break higher opening the way towards 4050, while failure to break above could lead to a pullback towards 3900-3850.
Commodities remain mixed, with crude prices consolidating within broad ranges of $80-$95 for Brent and $75-$90 for WTI. Gold remains bullish and can break above $4500 to rise towards $4600-$4650, while Silver can extend its gains towards $70-$75. Copper remains weak and can decline further towards $6.50-$6.45. Natural Gas continues to strengthen and can rise towards $2.80-$3.00 while holding above the key support near $2.60.
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The Japanese yen continued its recent retreat, reaching its lowest level since July 31 as the recent US intervention backfired. The USD/JPY pair rose to 159.43, up by 2.72% from its lowest level this month.
The USD/JPY pair crashed hard earlier this month, reaching its lowest level since May, after the Donald Trump administration made its biggest intervention in years. It did that by converting some of its euro holdings into the Japanese yen, a move that caught European officials offguard.
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) also intervened, pumping billions of dollars to yen buying. This happened after the pair jumped to 163.96, its highest level in decades.
The Trymp administration intervened to prevent the BoJ from intensifying its US government bond sales, which would have driven yields higher. Already, the 30-year yield has remained above 5% for months. And this week, the US government sold ten-year bonds at the highest yield in years.
Historically, forex market interventions tend to have a short-term impact on the currency. A good example of this is how the Japanese yen jumped on April 30th after the BoJ intervened and then resumed its downward trend.
The main issue facing the Japanese yen is that the Bank of Japan maintains low interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve. It recently hiked rates to 1%, the highest level in decades. This rate, however, is much lower than the US, which has remained between 3.50% and 3.75% this year.
The implication of this is that the USD/JPY has become a carry top carry trade pair. A carry trade is a situation where investors borrow from a low interest country and invests in a high interest rate one. In this case, they are borrowing from Japan and investing in the US.
As such, analysts believe that the Japanese yen will only have a sustained uptrend against the US when the BoJ hikes interest rates further. The BoJ has hinted that it may hike rates further this year. A Polymarket poll shows that odds of a 25 basis point hike in September have jumped to 68%.
Separately, the USD/JPY pair reacted mildly to the latest US nonfarm payrolls and consumer inflation data. The jobs report showed that the US economy lost 23k jobs in July, while the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%. Another report released on Wednesday showed that the US inflation softened a bit in July. These numbers mean that the Fed will maintain rates unchanged this year.
USDJPY chart | Source: TradingView
The daily chart shows that the USD to JPY pair has rebounded in the past two weeks as the impact of the intervention fades. It has now jumped to 159.46, and is attempting to cross the 25-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
The Average Directional Index (ADX) has continued rising and moved to 37, the highest level in months, a sign that the uptrend is continuing. Therefore, the path of the least resistance for the pair is bullish, with the next key target to watch being 160. A move above that level will point to more upside.
The only caveat to remember is that the BoJ and the US have hinted at possible interventions, meaning that these gains can easily reverse.
The GBP/USD pair trades with a negative bias for the second consecutive day and trades below the 1.3500 psychological mark during the Asian session on Thursday amid modest US Dollar (USD) strength. The downside potential, however, seems limited as traders might opt to wait for the UK macro data dump, including the Q2 GDP report, before placing directional bets.
In the meantime, inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices underpin prospects for a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties due to the US-Iran standoff, assists the USD in building on the previous day's bounce from the post-CPI swing low and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, spot prices, barring the overnight bullish spike, have been oscillating in a one-week-old range. This might be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of the rally since late July. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair maintains a mildly bullish near-term bias above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart.
However, momentum indicators are less supportive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near the neutral 50 line, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is slipping slightly below zero. This, in turn, hints at an extension of the consolidative price action rather than strong near-term directional conviction, warranting caution for aggressive traders.
Meanwhile, further weakness below the current pivot area around 1.3491 might prompt some technical selling and make spot prices vulnerable to accelerating the fall to the 100-period SMA near 1.3415. A sustained defence of these supports would keep the bullish bias intact, while a clean break below would expose a deeper corrective phase for the GBP/USD pair on the four-hour chart.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly and quarterly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in the UK during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of UK economic activity. The QoQ reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter to the previous quarter. Generally, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
Gold (XAU/USD) retreats after touching a fresh high since June 5, around the $4,450 area, during the Asian session on Thursday and is currently placed near the lower end of its daily range. The immediate market reaction to signs of moderating US inflation seems to have faded amid expectations that higher energy prices will rekindle inflationary pressures. Furthermore, bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver at least one interest rate hike by the end of this year prompt some profit-taking and drive flows away from the non-yielding bullion.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Wednesday that the headline US Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased in line with market expectations, from 3.5% to 3.4% YoY in July. Adding to this, the core gauge, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% and 2.5% on a monthly and yearly basis, respectively, matching consensus estimates. This comes on top of last Friday's weak US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report and gives the Fed more room to hold interest rates steady in September, which offered some support to gold.
Investors, however, remain worried about inflation risks stemming from volatile oil prices due to the US-Iran standoff. In fact, President Donald Trump again claimed that the US has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has pledged to keep the vital waterway closed until all its demands are met. Moreover, Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen escalated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, targeting Saudi ships. This has led to increased war-risk premiums, which continue to lend some support to crude oil prices.
This continues to fuel inflation fears and backs the case for some Fed tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in a nearly 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs in 2026. This, in turn, helps the US Dollar (USD) build on the previous day's bounce from the post-CPI swing low and exerts some downward pressure on the commodity. However, some follow-through selling below the $4,400 mark is needed to back the case for a meaningful corrective decline in the Gold price.
Traders now look forward to Thursday's US economic docket, featuring the Producer Price Index (PPI) and the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members, will drive USD demand and provide some impetus to the precious metal. Apart from this, further developments surrounding the Middle East crisis might continue to infuse volatility across global financial markets and contribute to producing short-term trading opportunities around the Gold price.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisThe previous day's close above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a subsequent move beyond the 50% retracement level of the April-June downfall favor XAU/USD bulls. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains elevated, reinforcing constructive momentum. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.44 hovers near overbought territory, hinting that upside pressure persists but may be nearing a stretched condition.
Hence, strength beyond the daily swing high might confront initial resistance near the 200-day SMA at $4,502. This is closely followed by the 61.8% retracement at $4,525.18, above which the Gold price could climb to the next barriers at $4,683 and $4,885. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day SMA at $4,387, with lower cushions seen at the 38.2% Fibo. at $4,302 and the 23.6% level at $4,164.38, before a more significant structural floor emerges near $3,941.47.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold is reverting to the $4,400 level in Asia on Thursday after facing rejection at $4,450 or fresh ten-week highs earlier in the session.
Attention now turns to the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for more signs of cooling inflation, particularly after a mild US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Gold looks to US PPI inflation for next leg upThe headline annual CPI inflation eased to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, coming in line with estimates.
The closely watched core annual CPI also matched expectations, increasing by 2.5% in July. Meanwhile, the monthly core CPI rose by 0.2% in the same period, following a flat reading in June.
The benign inflation readings further reduced bets for a US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September, triggering a big sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) alongside US Treasury bond yields, bolstering the ongoing Gold price uptrend toward $4,450.
Traders are now pricing in only a 40% probability of such a move at the September meeting, down from about 54% seen a week before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
According to TD Securities, the latest inflation data should “continue to bring relief to the Fed regarding the need for tighter policy, at least in the near horizon.” The bank points to “signs of normalization in services prices along with tariff pass-through that remains under control” as developments that “bode well for concerns around sticky core inflation.” On that basis, TD Securities reiterates that “all in, we remain of the view that the Fed will keep its policy stance unchanged this year,” reinforcing expectations that current policy settings will be maintained despite earlier worries over persistent price pressures.
However, Gold prices quickly pulled back as Middle East tensions resurfaced after a senior Iranian source said that there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and to define a time frame for its implementation.
In response, US President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the US has "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, dismissing Iranian statements on the standoff as "fake news," adding that Tehran is "all talk and no action" and is "the Bully of the Middle East No Longer."
In Thursday’s trading so far, Gold renewed ten-week highs at $4,450 as Asian traders hit their desks and reacted positively to the mild US CPI readings, which raised doubts about an imminent Fed rate hike. Retreating Oil prices also offered additional impetus to Gold bulls.
However, they seem to be taking a breather after the recent rally as traders look to adjust their positions again ahead of the US PPI inflation release. The data could confirm the easing trend in inflation, having significant implications for Fed rate hike expectations.
Gold traders will also closely monitor developments in the Middle East, which could fuel a brief corrective downside for the bright metal before dip-buying emerges amid a bullish daily technical setup.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,408.48. The metal holds a bullish near‑term bias as it stands above the short- and medium-term simple moving averages (SMAs), with the 21-day SMA at $4,151.01 and the 50-day SMA at $4,146.69 underpinning the advance, while the 100-day SMA at $4,387.53 has been reclaimed as immediate support. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 67.49 flirts with overbought territory, suggesting strong but potentially stretched upside momentum as price consolidates near record highs.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the longer-term 200-day simple moving average at $4,502.95, which caps the current rally and marks the next hurdle for bulls. On the downside, immediate support is provided by the 100-day SMA at $4,387.53, with the 21-day and 50-day SMAs clustered around $4,151–4,147 acting as a deeper demand zone should a corrective pullback develop.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Producer Price Index (YoY) The Producer Price Index released by the Bureau of Labor statistics, Department of Labor measures the average changes in prices in primary markets of the US by producers of commodities in all states of processing. Changes in the PPI are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Silver price (XAG/USD) trades in a tight range at around $65.40 during the Asian trading session on Thursday. The Silver price struggles for a direction; however, an expected slowdown in United States (US) inflationary pressures in July has improved its outlook.
On Wednesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth cooled down to 3.4% Year-on-Year (YoY) from 3.5% in June. The core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy items – also arrived lower at 2.5% YoY, as expected, against the previous reading of 2.6%.
Signs of price pressures cooling down have eased fears of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in the September meeting have increased to almost 60% from 30.4% seen a month ago.
Such a scenario bodes well for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for July, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades flat at around $65.40, extending its advance above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $61.66 and keeping a constructive near-term bullish bias. The positioning above this short-term EMA suggests underlying demand remains firm, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 61.17 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, hinting that bullish momentum is still in play.
On the downside, initial support is provided by the 20-day EMA at $61.66, which acts as the key dynamic floor that would need to give way to signal a deeper corrective phase. Looking up, the white metal would attempt to extend the advance towards the June 16 high at $71.19 if it manages to break the ongoing consolidation on the upside above $66.59.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
AUD/USD started a fresh increase above the 0.7025 resistance. A rising channel is forming with support near 0.7050 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD failed near the 1.1580 resistance and dipped. WTI Crude Oil prices could face hurdles near $84.20 and $85.00. AUD/USD Technical Analysis The Aussie Dollar formed a base above 0.6980 against the US Dollar. AUD/USD started a fresh increase above the 0.7000 and 0.7025 resistance levels.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair gained pace for a move toward 0.7100. A high was formed at 0.7091, and the pair is now correcting some gains. There was a move toward the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.6922 swing low to the 0.7091 high.
The pair is still well above the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). There is also a rising channel forming with support near 0.7050.
On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 0.7080. The next major resistance might be 0.7100. A close above 0.7100 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 0.7145.
Any more gains might open the door for a test of 0.7200. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 0.7050. The next major support could be near 0.7025 and the 50% Fib retracement level.
The main support might be 0.7000. A downside break and close below 0.7000 might send the pair toward 0.6960. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 0.6920.
Looking at EUR/USD, the pair failed to continue higher above 1.1580 and started a downside correction.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US Initial Jobless Claims – Forecast 202K, versus 199K previous. US Producer Price Index for July 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.2%, versus -0.3% previous. US Producer Price Index for July 2026 (YoY) – Forecast +4.9%, versus +5.5% previous.
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NZD/USD volatility sits near two-decade lows Kiwi swaps price aggressive RBNZ tightening Two-year inflation expectations headline crucial RBNZ survey AUD/NZD probes potential bullish breakout NZD/USD bullish momentum fading fast The Survey That Could Shift RBNZ Pricing The Kiwi has been unbelievably quiet in August, but that calm may be living on borrowed time. Volatility is sitting near the lowest levels seen in two decades, Kiwi rates markets are heavily priced for further RBNZ tightening, and today brings the release of a survey that has historically carried meaningful implications for interest rates.
The RBNZ’s Survey of Expectations is probably the most important New Zealand release most have never heard of. Two-year inflation expectations are the number to watch, with a meaningful deviation carrying the potential to jolt the Kiwi out of its funk.
Markets Have Priced Plenty of Hikes Ahead of its release, swaps traders continue to expect a relatively aggressive monetary policy tightening cycle from the RBNZ, even after the modest pullback sparked by the soft New Zealand employment report earlier this month. Implied pricing puts the probability of a hike at the September meeting at 88%, with roughly 3.7 further hikes priced by June next year and close to five by August, on top of the first increase of the cycle delivered last month.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com, Bloomberg
That is far steeper than the path implied by the RBNZ’s May forecasts. From the 2.25% OCR prevailing at the time, its track implied around 3.3 hikes by the middle of next year. That differential suggests the hurdle for a further hawkish repricing is high, meaning a modest increase in inflation expectations later today may not be enough. If we were to see a retracement in inflation expectations, it could prove far more meaningful for Kiwi rates and currency.
RBNZ Reaction Function Is More Sensitive to Falls The survey provides several measures of inflation, but it’s the two-year reading that tends to be more influential when it comes to monetary policy. It is more reflective of medium-term price pressures, rather than capturing near-term volatility in food, energy and other prices. Two-year expectations rose to 2.53% in the May survey, putting them well above the 2% midpoint of the RBNZ’s 1–3% inflation target.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com
What’s interesting is that the historical relationship is not especially mechanical when expectations rise. Increases of at least 10bp, 15bp and 20bp while two-year expectations were above 2% were followed by a hike at the next meeting only 32%, 27% and 36% of the time respectively. It was only when the increase reached 30bp or more that the response became noticeably more hawkish, with the RBNZ hiking in 60% of cases, although that is based on only five observations.
The reaction has been considerably stronger since 2020. Increases of at least 20bp while two-year expectations were above 2% were followed by a hike at the next meeting in 60% of cases, while all three increases of 30bp or more were followed by a hike.
Source: RBNZ, FOREX.com
More interesting is what happens when inflation expectations fall, particularly when the decline takes the two-year measure back towards the RBNZ’s 2% target midpoint. Historically, that has produced a much stronger reaction function at the following policy meeting than an equivalent increases in expectations.
When two-year expectations fell but remained between 2.00% and 2.25%, the RBNZ did not hike at the next meeting in any observation across more than two decades of data. When they finished between 2.25% and 2.50%, the next-meeting hike rate was just 9%. By contrast, when expectations fell but remained above 2.50%, the RBNZ still hiked 36% of the time.
Kiwi Volatility Goes Cold
Source: LSEG, FOREX.com
While there’s been plenty of political instability in New Zealand over the past week, there's been almost none in the Kiwi. NZD/USD has been remarkably subdued, with 10-day realised volatility falling to 4.1% annualised, putting it in roughly the bottom 1% of observations going back two decades!
A decline in inflation expectations, particularly back towards the RBNZ’s 2% target midpoint, could force traders to rethink the aggressive tightening path and weigh on the Kiwi as a result.
NZD/USD Downside Risk Starts to Build
Source: TradingView
You can see visually how quiet NZD/USD has been over the past fortnight. What has piqued my interest is the pair breaking lower from what resembles a wedge structure in the wake of the US July inflation report, pushing down to test 0.5860, a level that has acted as both support and resistance earlier this year.
The message from the oscillators suggests upside momentum is fading fast. RSI (14) has been setting sequentially lower highs and lower lows and now sits only marginally above the neutral 50 level. MACD has also staged a bearish crossover, although it remains in positive territory. Combined with the recent price action, that suggests the bears may be slowly gaining the upper hand.
If the breakdown extends through 0.5860, attention shifts to the confluence of the 100 and 200-day moving averages, horizontal support around 0.5825 and the uptrend dating back to the late-June low. That is the key downside support zone to watch. A break beneath it would open the door for a deeper retracement towards the 50-day moving average, 0.5762, 0.5747 and 0.5724.
If the price manages to push back into the former compression structure, 0.5900 is the level to watch overhead. A move above there that sticks may encourage bulls to look for a run towards 0.5920, which has previously acted as support, followed by 0.5992.
AUD/NZD Bulls Eye Breakout
Source: TradingView
The price action in AUD/NZD is arguably more interesting, with a firming in RBA rate hike pricing seeing the cross rebound strongly from beneath support at 1.1935. You can’t help but notice the price is now testing the upper end of a structure that resembles a falling wedge, which is a bullish continuation pattern. Having come after a very strong rally over the past year, it suggests the pair may be on the cusp of breaking out and retesting the highs set earlier this year.
The upper boundary of the structure kicks in around 1.2053, which also coincides with horizontal resistance. A break of that level would put the 50-day and 100-day moving averages into play for bulls, with the latter marking an area where the pair stalled in late July after another rebound. A move back above the confluence of the 100-day moving average with 1.2115 resistance would improve the probability of a run towards the recent highs.
If the upper boundary of the structure holds, we may see a potential retracement back towards 1.2000, a level that capped gains previously earlier this month. Beyond that, 1.1935 and the lower boundary of the compression structure, found today around 1.1900, are the next downside levels to watch, along with the key 200-day moving average located just beneath.
Mirroring the rebound seen over the past two weeks, the oscillators have turned more constructive for the bulls. RSI (14) is setting higher highs and higher lows and now sits marginally above the neutral 50 level. MACD has also staged a bullish crossover but remains negative, although it is pushing back towards positive territory. It is still a mixed signal, more neutral in nature, but it does suggest the bears no longer have it their own way.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Thursday at 6.7888 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7882 and 6.7470 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
EUR/USD halts its three-day losing streak, trading around 1.1530 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The currency pair gains ground as the US Dollar (USD) faces challenges following the release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. Inflation in the United States moderated across a broad range of goods and services, which significantly cooled expectations for an aggressive Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the headline CPI increased 3.4% year-over-year in July, down from 3.5% previously. Similarly, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, rose 2.5% year-over-year compared to 2.6% in June. Both readings matched market expectations.
US inflation in line with expectations as energy and food pressures easeAccording to TD Securities, July US consumer price inflation "matched expectations," with the headline CPI rising "0.1% m/m (0.074% before rounding; TD: 0.15%, consensus: 0.1%)." The strategists note that the modest increase was "partly explained by still retreating energy prices (gasoline -3% m/m) and slowing food inflation," underscoring the role of softer fuel and food costs in keeping overall price pressures contained.
In light of the new inflation data, market expectations for future Fed policy shifts have adjusted. According to the CME FedWatch tool, interest-rate swaps are now pricing in roughly a 40.1% chance of a rate hike in September. Odds for an October move fell to about 60% from 75% the previous day, with the next potential rate increase not fully priced in until December.
However, upside momentum for the risk-sensitive EUR/USD pair may remain constrained by escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. A senior Iranian official noted that Washington and Tehran remain at loggerheads over a permanent end to conflicts in the Gulf, reporting zero progress in reviving the interim deal or establishing an implementation timeline.
Meanwhile, the macroeconomic picture in the Eurozone continues to support the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish stance. Market-based inflation expectations for the Euro Area over the next year sit around 2.4%, remaining above the ECB’s official 2% target, while actual Eurozone inflation edged up to 2.9% in July. Coupled with a resilient economic outlook, highlighted by a 0.4% expansion in Q2, the strongest pace since early 2025, analysts have grown increasingly optimistic about the region's growth. Although near-term growth may moderate before regaining momentum, investors fully expect the ECB to deliver another 25-basis-point rate hike in September.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
