On 13 August, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that GDP growth slowed to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, down from 0.6% in the first quarter. The figure was in line with expectations, and the market reaction was relatively muted.
The interest-rate backdrop has also remained broadly unchanged for several weeks. On 30 July, the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%, while the ECB left its rate at 2.25% on 23 July. With both decisions largely priced into the market, the absence of fresh guidance from either central bank means that short-term EUR/GBP price action may be driven more by technical factors than by the latest macroeconomic data.
Technical Analysis of EUR/GBP
The second half of July saw a strong upward move in EUR/GBP, with the pair climbing from below 0.8460 to a peak near the current resistance level at 0.8586.
The rally was followed by a consolidation phase. Since the beginning of August, price action has gradually narrowed into a pattern resembling a symmetrical triangle, with the trading range becoming progressively tighter.
On Monday, 10 August, the pair broke below the lower boundary of the formation. EUR/GBP is currently trading beneath both the triangle’s lower trendline and the lower boundary of the current market profile at 0.8553, while testing the latter from below. If this retest is successful and the downside move gains momentum, the green support level around 0.8533 could become increasingly important.
A false breakout, however, would shift attention back towards the upside. In that scenario, the pair would face several technical barriers: the Point of Control (POC) at 0.8564, the upper boundary of the profile at 0.8580, and the key resistance level at 0.8586.
The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 48, 40 and 43. The bearish signal has failed to develop further, while the RSI has moved back into the neutral zone, suggesting that momentum remains inconclusive.
Key Takeaways
The attempted downside breakout has pushed EUR/GBP outside the profile in which the recent consolidation developed. The next directional move may depend on whether the pound receives additional support from the Bank of England as the central bank determines its subsequent policy course.
For now, the technical setup remains vulnerable to a false breakout, with the 0.8553 retest likely to be particularly important in determining whether sellers can maintain control or the pair returns to the consolidation range.
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EUR/USD stood at 1.1537 on Friday, with markets continuing to digest incoming economic data. Soft US inflation figures have reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
Data released on Thursday showed that producer prices were flat in July. Together with the benign CPI report, this suggests that inflationary pressures are not yet accelerating.
Markets are now pricing in a 35% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, down from 55% a week earlier. Moderate inflation reduces the need for near-term policy tightening.
Recent data also suggest that the initial inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict and high energy prices may be easing. However, uncertainty surrounding a potential agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market continues to trade within a consolidation range, currently extending between 1.1511 and 1.1545, with the upper boundary being tested from below. The consolidation range around the 1.1546 level is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1570, followed by a decline to 1.1492. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.1492, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to 1.1543. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. A move lower towards 1.1492 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1536, and then a continuation of the downward trend to 1.1400, with scope for a further decline to 1.1330. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion EUR/USD remains range-bound as markets assess the implications of softer US inflation data, which have reduced the likelihood of a September Fed rate hike from 55% to 35%. Producer prices were flat in July, adding to evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating. The initial impact of the Middle East conflict and high energy prices appears to be fading. However, uncertainty over a potential US–Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still poses risks. Technically, the pair may see a short-term corrective move towards 1.1570 before resuming its broader bearish trend towards 1.1492 and potentially 1.1400. The near-term direction will depend on further US economic data and geopolitical developments.
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The Euro (EUR) trades 0.17% higher at around 1.1550 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The major currency pair gains as the Euro rises due to firm expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates in the policy meeting in September.
According to a Reuters poll, 57 of 69 economists said that they see the ECB hiking its deposit rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% in September.
Market experts also seem confident about the ECB tightening its monetary conditions in September to tame hot inflationary pressures.
ECB seen hiking again as other central banks face tougher choices
Analysts at HSBC highlight a growing divergence in the global policy outlook, noting that "although we expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to now deliver another rate rise in September, for other major central banks it is a much tougher balancing act." The bank contrasts the ECB’s readiness to tighten further with a more cautious stance elsewhere, underscoring the challenge facing policymakers outside the Eurozone as they weigh inflation risks against the need to keep policy on hold.
Meanwhile, traders pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September is dragging the US Dollar.
Fed hike odds slip as softer inflation data drives dovish repricing
Analysts at Deutsche Bank highlight that the softer inflation backdrop has prompted a notable dovish shift in Fed expectations, with “pricing for a September Fed hike fell to just 35% by the close, down from above 50% on the morning of Wednesday’s CPI release.” They add that the “downside PPI surprise led to an immediate reaction in pricing for the next Fed meeting,” noting that “the probability of a September hike had been at 40% right before the release, but was down to 35% by the close.”
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades at around 1.1550, holding the downward-sloping trendline at around 1.1540, but is capped by the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), which is at 1.1567.
The Relative Strength Index (14) around 60 hints at firm bullish momentum, but this improving sentiment is yet to overcome the overhead SMA that continues to act as a ceiling.
On the downside, initial support is seen near the former trend-line break point at 1.1510, where the market previously cleared a descending resistance line, now acting as a structural floor. On the topside, the 100-day SMA at 1.1567 forms the first resistance barrier, and a decisive close above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish bias and open the way to a more sustained recovery. Looking up, the major barricade of the pair would be the round-level at 1.1600.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
ECB FAQs The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
EUR/USD stood at 1.1537 on Friday, with markets continuing to digest incoming economic data. Soft US inflation figures have reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September.
Data released on Thursday showed that producer prices were flat in July. Together with the benign CPI report, this suggests that inflationary pressures are not yet accelerating.
Markets are now pricing in a 35% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, down from 55% a week earlier. Moderate inflation reduces the need for near-term policy tightening.
Recent data also suggest that the initial inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict and high energy prices may be easing. However, uncertainty surrounding a potential agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook.
Technical analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market continues to trade within a consolidation range, currently extending between 1.1511 and 1.1545, with the upper boundary being tested from below. The consolidation range around the 1.1546 level is nearing completion. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective move towards 1.1570, followed by a decline to 1.1492. A direct downside breakout would open the way for a move towards 1.1492, with scope for the trend to extend to 1.1400. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line below zero and pointing downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed an upward move to 1.1543. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. A move lower towards 1.1492 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.1536, and then a continuation of the downward trend to 1.1400, with scope for a further decline to 1.1330. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20, indicating increasing short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionEUR/USD remains range-bound as markets assess the implications of softer US inflation data, which have reduced the likelihood of a September Fed rate hike from 55% to 35%. Producer prices were flat in July, adding to evidence that inflationary pressures are moderating. The initial impact of the Middle East conflict and high energy prices appears to be fading. However, uncertainty over a potential US–Iran agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz still poses risks. Technically, the pair may see a short-term corrective move towards 1.1570 before resuming its broader bearish trend towards 1.1492 and potentially 1.1400. The near-term direction will depend on further US economic data and geopolitical developments.
Post-CPI summer trading conditions continue to keep FX volatility subdued, leaving EUR/USD largely anchored. Still, our models are pointing to some short-term undervaluation in the pair, supporting our moderately bullish bias for coming weeks. Gulf headlines remain a marginal factor for FX, more visible in some relative value trades than USD crosses.
USD: Looking for a shift in FedspeakThe post-CPI midsummer environment is understandably weighing on FX vols. We argued yesterday, that this could remain the norm for at least the next couple of weeks. At the same time, we retain a preference for dollar downside, as we still believe market conviction around further tightening by the Federal Reserve is too strong.
For now, Fedspeak offers the clearest potential catalyst for market moves. There is still considerable uncertainty over the message that could emerge from the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium, particularly after a CPI report that leaned dovish without delivering a definitive signal. Yesterday, we heard from Beth Hammack, who voted for a hike and continued to make the case for tightening, but also from Tom Barkin, who raised some doubts about the need for higher rates despite not being considered a dovish voice within the FOMC. Let’s see if more centrist members start to soften their hawkish tone.
Today’s US calendar includes July retail sales, expected at a modest 0.1% month-on-month, and the University of Michigan surveys, which are expected to show little change from August. These second-tier releases would likely need to deliver significant surprises to trigger a meaningful dollar reaction.
Meanwhile, headline fatigue surrounding the Middle East remains elevated. US-Iran negotiations appear to be at a stalemate, but Brent declined yesterday, providing some support for global bonds. The bar for the dollar to rebuild a strong direct relationship with oil prices remains quite high, and the impact of developments in the Gulf may remain more visible in G10 relative-value trades, where pairs such as NOK/SEK and AUD/NZD continue to track the energy story quite closely.
EUR: Showing some undervaluationOur models suggest EUR/USD’s short-term fair value sits in the 1.160-1.1650 area. That’s primarily on the back of the c.10bp tightening in two-year swap rate spreads, which retain a significantly higher beta than other drivers.
That supports our positive bias on EUR/USD, even though we aren’t convinced a break above 1.160 is on the cards in the coming days unless communication from the Fed starts to surprise on the dovish side. For now, EUR/USD bulls like us may be content with strengthening technical support around 1.1500.
In the eurozone, the second release of 2Q GDP will be released today, with no expectations for meaningful changes to the advance 0.4% quarter-on-quarter print.
JPY: BoJ policy story having little effect so farDespite some sharp moves in Japanese money markets this week, the yen is failing to find any lasting support. Here, the big story is that the Japanese government might be more tolerant of a faster tightening cycle by the Bank of Japan. The prior assumption had been that a government focusing on growth would only allow the BoJ one hike every six months. The suggestion now is that Tokyo has elevated FX as a policy priority and wants to ensure that the first joint intervention with the US to buy the yen since 1998 is a success.
Markets now price close to a 75% chance that the BoJ hikes 25bp in September. That has seen two-year US: Japan swap differentials narrow nearly 40bp since mid-July. That should be weighing on USD/JPY. The fact that it is not may owe to benign conditions that continue to favour the yen-funded carry trade. That said, the risks to funding in yen are squarely increasing, and if we are right with our call for unchanged Fed rates in September, USD/JPY could well be trading back below 158. And to play independent yen strength in the interim, expect a lot more focus on short CHF/JPY positions.
CEE: Central bank signals take centre stageTurkey’s central bank raised its inflation forecast to 28% from 26%, bringing it closer to market expectations and our own forecast. It also signalled that the effective policy stance is likely to normalise as funding shifts from the overnight lending facility back to the repo window. We had expected this move in September, but the case for an earlier shift in August has strengthened. Today, Turkey will publish August inflation expectations, which have risen somewhat since the start of the US-Iran conflict.
Elsewhere, Romania releases 2Q GDP figures today, though yesterday’s press conference by the National Bank of Romania governor was the main focus. While the central bank lifted its year-end inflation forecast to 6.1%, the governor said discussions on rate cuts could begin early next year. This matches our forecast, but the firm signal may still surprise markets.
In the Czech Republic, the Czech National Bank will publish minutes from last week’s meeting, when rates were left unchanged at 3.75%. The minutes may reveal a more dovish discussion than markets expect. The CNB will also release its full inflation report.
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United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report GBP/USD price action remains confined, with intraday moves seen between 1.3475 and 1.3515 as momentum has faded. For the coming 1–3 weeks, they expect the Pound to trade in a broader 1.3440–1.3540 band after a brief test of 1.3540, while longer-term signals point to range-trading with supports at 1.3210/1.3160 and resistance at 1.3610/1.3655.
Pound momentum fades into ranges"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 two days ago before dropping back down to a low of 1.3488. When it was at 1.3500 in the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that “the current price movements appear to be part of a range-trading phase between 1.3475 and 1.3525.” Our view of range-trading was not wrong, even though GBP traded within a narrower range than expected (1.3475/1.3513). The price movements still appear to be part of a range-trading phase. Today, we expect GBP to trade between 1.3475 and 1.3515."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have held a slightly positive GBP view since last Monday. In our most recent narrative from Tuesday (11 Aug, spot at 1.3510), we indicated that while GBP “could test 1.3555, based on the prevailing momentum, a continued rise above this level appears unlikely.” GBP rose briefly to 1.3540 two days ago and then pulled back, printing a low of 1.3475 yesterday. Although our ‘strong support’ level at 1.3460 has not been breached yet, upward momentum has largely faded. For the time being, we expect GBP to trade in a range, most likely between 1.3440 and 1.3540."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING FX Strategist Francesco Pesole highlights that EUR/USD appears modestly undervalued, with short-term fair value estimated around 1.160–1.1650 based on swap spreads. He maintains a positive bias on EUR/USD but doubts a near-term break above 1.160 without a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve. For now, he sees strengthening technical support around 1.1500, while Eurozone GDP revisions are expected to be minor.
Fair value signals and key levels"Our models suggest EUR/USD’s short-term fair value sits in the 1.160-1.1650 area. That’s primarily on the back of the c.10bp tightening in two-year swap rate spreads, which retain a significantly higher beta than other drivers."
"That supports our positive bias on EUR/USD, even though we aren’t convinced a break above 1.160 is on the cards in the coming days unless communication from the Fed starts to surprise on the dovish side. For now, EUR/USD bulls like us may be content with strengthening technical support around 1.1500."
"In the eurozone, the second release of 2Q GDP will be released today, with no expectations for meaningful changes to the advance 0.4% quarter-on-quarter print. "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Pound-Australian Dollar can hold a firm tone if risk appetite stays fragile, although hawkish RBA rhetoric could limit any move back above AU$1.91. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate edged higher on Thursday as a risk-off market mood weighed on the ‘Aussie’, while the latest UK GDP figures left Sterling broadly steady.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading around AU$1.9123, marginally higher on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.910309 (-0.03%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.348536 (-0.09%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) was relatively muted on Thursday, although it managed to hold an advantage against weaker rivals after the UK’s latest GDP figures met expectations.
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed the UK economy expanded by 0.4% in the second quarter, down from 0.6% in the first quarter but still a respectable pace of growth.
Sterling drew only limited support from the release as the figures matched forecasts and some of the strength was linked to temporary and seasonal factors. The World Cup and warm summer weather helped lift activity in June.
There was also some caution over the outlook for the second half of the year. A number of economists warned that growth could slow if elevated energy prices and Middle East tensions keep inflation pressures high.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) softened as a cautious market mood undermined demand for the risk-sensitive currency.
Investor sentiment remained fragile as tensions in the Middle East continued to simmer. Iran’s insistence that vessels require its permission to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside threats to prolong the conflict with the US, kept markets on edge.
With hopes for a ceasefire and a full reopening of shipping routes fading, investors remained wary of holding higher-risk assets, leaving the ‘Aussie’ under pressure.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Can Bullock’s comments steady the Australian Dollar? Looking ahead, a speech from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock could influence the Australian Dollar during Friday’s Asian session.
Bullock struck a relatively hawkish tone after the RBA left interest rates on hold earlier this week. If she repeats that message, the ‘Aussie’ could find support and limit GBP/AUD upside.
For Sterling, UK data is thin on the ground, which may leave the Pound trading without a strong independent driver.
That means wider risk sentiment could remain the main influence on the pairing. If Middle East tensions continue to sap confidence, GBP/AUD may stay supported. A brighter market mood, however, could help the Australian Dollar recover.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Pound-Dollar could move back above $1.35 if weaker US retail sales and consumer sentiment further reduce expectations for another Federal Reserve rate hike.
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Thursday as UK GDP, softer US producer prices and shifting risk appetite failed to generate a decisive move.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3498, little changed from Thursday's opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.348601 (-0.09%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.15327 (+0.03%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 159.50006 (+0.11%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) traded with little direction on Thursday, with the latest UK GDP figures doing little to give Sterling a lift.
UK economic growth eased in the second quarter, although the economy continued to expand at a respectable pace. GDP rose by 0.4% in Q2, slowing from the 0.6% growth recorded in Q1.
However, Sterling found little encouragement in the figures, as the result matched expectations and part of the expansion was linked to temporary and seasonal factors. The World Cup in June and unusually warm summer weather both provided a boost to GDP.
Meanwhile, some economists cautioned that the pace of growth could weaken during the second half of the year. Persistent inflation, alongside the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, could create further headwinds for the UK economy.
Such concerns kept a lid on the Pound's gains.
The US Dollar (USD) initially enjoyed some support on Thursday as worries about the US-Iran war lifted demand for the safe-haven currency.
However, USD later faced pressure as markets reacted to the latest US producer price index.
Factory gate inflation stalled in July, rather than rising by 0.2%.
The data provided further evidence that inflationary pressures in the US may not be as severe as feared, which in turn dampened expectations for another Federal Reserve interest rate hike.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Data to Dent the Dollar?
Looking ahead, Friday's session brings two key US economic releases that could pressure the ‘Greenback’.
The first is the latest US retail sales report. Economists expect sales growth to have slowed from 0.2% in June to just 0.1% in July, with weaker consumer spending potentially raising concerns about the health of the US economy.
The University of Michigan will then publish its preliminary consumer sentiment index for August. Markets expect confidence to have deteriorated, which could further undermine the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, broader risk appetite could continue to influence GBP/USD.
If markets remain anxious about tensions in the Middle East, safe-haven demand could provide the US Dollar with support and limit any Sterling gains.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Key Points:Softer U.S. CPI and PPI have strengthened expectations for a less restrictive Federal Reserve policy outlook.EUR/USD is testing major trendline resistance near 1.1569, with a breakout potentially exposing 1.1620 and 1.1674.UK GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, giving the Bank of England more room to focus on persistent inflation risks.DXY continues defending the critical 99.40 trendline support but needs to reclaim 100.36 to strengthen its recovery.GBP/USD remains constructive above its rising trendline, though buyers need to clear 1.3515 to confirm another bullish leg.
In this article:GBP/USD
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GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD
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EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: Fed Rate Cut Bets Rise as Euro and Pound Navigate Domestic Risks As of August 14, the U.S. dollar is facing pressure due to changing expectations for the Fed after release of slower inflation data provided further evidence of a case for increased easing. The July report for the Producer Price Index (PPI) indicated that inflation for wholesale goods was unchanged compared to the month prior, and core PPI also increased by 0.2% after the latest CPI report indicated a slower-than-expected rise. The data released further eased the concerns for inflation rising again and suggested that the Fed was likely to begin cutting rates in September.
For the Fed, the labor market is still the most important factor. The recent data for July hiring indicated slower hiring, and more of a need to strike a balance between inflation concerns and an economy likely to be slowing. However, Fed officials reassure the market that the inflation data is still well above the Fed’s target for inflation being set at 2%.
The euro is benefitting from the slower expectations of Fed rate movements, but is also dealing with domestic challenges. The European Central Bank is still maintaining a cautious stance by keeping policy the same as they assess the impact of the disruptions to Middle East energy supply and inflation as well as consumer demand. Recent reports of the activity of the euro zone have shown signs of stabilizing, but still have the potential to grow at a lower level due to slow demand and geopolitical challenges.
Sterling faces considerable pressure as the UK’s second-quarter GDP showed a 0.4% quarterly rise, following stronger early quarter growth. The data published reflects the economy’s resilience, especially as price rises for energy have been high and global uncertainties remain. Still, the Bank of England must continue to balance inflation and the threats caused by the increasing growth of nominal wages and energy price rises.
For currency markets, the most important factor continues to be the difference in interest rates and the expected changes. Easing US inflation has lowered expectations of further rate hikes by the FOMC, and the euro and pound are now being evaluated on whether their respective domestic economies can continue to grow without re-igniting inflation.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds 99.40 Support as Bulls Attempt Recovery Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index is hovering around 99.95, as it stabilized above the significant 99.40 support area. The daily chart depicts DXY still as a sell into the 101.60 area; however, bulls defend the rising trendline which has been a key topside recovering support line since the March lows. The index is currently trading sideways between resistance and support, potentially forming a base and accumulating ahead of a new strong trending move.
Price is just above the 100.00 level, with the 50-day EMA at 100.29 and acting as resistance. The 100-day EMA at 99.91 is currently acting as support and along with the current price makes this area of the market very important. RSI at 42 reflects zero momentum and a low level, but is also neutral and showing signs of the potential beginning of a new recovery if buyers show strength.
Breaking above 100.36 would provide a strong outlook for further recovery to the 100.82 and also 101.61 levels. Below the 99.40 support would lead to a sell off at 98.75 and possibly 98.18. The current outlook maintains a bullish recovery strategy, but is cautious as long as the rising trendline is intact.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is at 1.3487 after a highly bullish response to the 1.3270 lows. An ascending trendline is currently following the upward structure, with price having trouble breaching the 1.3515 resistance area, which has led to sideways movement in this area.
The 50-day EMA is at 1.3477 and the 100-day EMA is at 1.3446, which puts this pair slightly in favor of bulls. RSI is at 48 and shows that this pair may be losing some of its bullish momentum.
Breaching 1.3515 would show an upward movement with targets of 1.3545 and 1.3586. 1.3437 and 1.3400 offer support. The overall structure is bullish as long as price remains above the trendline. For bulls to resume their momentum, 1.3515 is an important level to take out.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Faces Trendline Resistance Near 1.1570 EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The EUR/USD currency cross currently trades around 1.1530. It has recovered from the 1.1350 July lows, but it’s facing a downward trendline and a resistance zone from the early year highs. The daily chart shows an attempt at recovery, but buyers will need a clear break above the trendline and the 1.1569 level to continue the trend higher.
The cross currently is trading above the 1.1499 50 day moving average and the 1.1541 100 day moving average. This indicates short term momentum is positive, but vague. Further, RSI is at 57, positive but not overbought.
A close above 1.1569 should confirm the breakout and may allow for a move toward 1.1620 and 1.1674. In the opposite direction, the first support is at 1.1500 and falls at 1.1455 and 1.1357. The cross is currently at a pivotal point, and the next move is likely based on if buyers break the long-term downtrend line or if sellers hold the current resistance.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD is consolidating after a brief spike, with the pair expected to trade intraday in a slightly higher 1.1515–1.1550 range as the underlying tone firms. Over 1–3 weeks, they judge the Euro to be in a range-trading phase between 1.1480 and 1.1580, while a medium-term rebound needs a break above 1.1560/1.1565.
Euro consolidates inside defined ranges"24-HOUR VIEW: Two days ago, EUR spiked to a high of 1.1562 and then pulled back sharply to close slightly lower at 1.1524. Yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1525, we stated that “further pullback is not ruled out, but given that downward momentum has not increased significantly, any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.1510/1.1545 range.” Our view turned out to be correct, as EUR dipped to 1.1510, rebounded to 1.1545 before settling at 1.1527 (+0.03%). Today, we continue to expect EUR to trade in a range, but the slightly firmer underlying tone suggests it is likely to trade within a higher range of 1.1515/1.1550."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: Our update from yesterday (13 Aug, spot at 1.1525) remains valid. As highlighted, EUR “appears to have entered a range-trading phase, and for the time being, we expect it to trade within a 1.1480/1.1580 range."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its losses for the second consecutive day, trading around $63.50 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. Silver price falls as investors opted to take profits while weighing the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy trajectory alongside ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Cooling inflation data further shaped market sentiment, as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that US wholesale prices for goods and services remained flat in July. This came in softer than the expected 0.2% growth and followed a revised 0.1% decline in June. Excluding the volatile food and energy sectors, core Producer Price Index (PPI) figures nudged up 0.2%, slightly below the consensus estimate of 0.3%. On a year-over-year basis, headline PPI rose 4.7% while core PPI increased 4.2%.
These softer inflation numbers have prompted market participants to recalibrate their expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate policy. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a rate hike at the Fed’s September meeting dropped to 34.8%, down from 40% immediately following the PPI release. At the same time, diplomatic negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, leaving investors wary of a potential escalation that could spark higher energy costs and rekindle inflationary forces.
Silver draws strong CTA interest as prices test key triggerAccording to TD Securities, "Silver stands out for near-term CTA flows," with the bank highlighting that "prices above $66.80/oz" are "likely to see further buying." Their models suggest that commodity trading advisers are "likely to add 3-4% of historic max length under all pricing scenarios into next week," underscoring robust systematic demand for the metal on sustained price strength.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold – Chart
On the daily chart, gold is currently trading at around $4,355, rebounding strongly from the July lows. Currently, gold is hesitant to break above the descending trendline and the $4,448 resistance zone. For now, price is above the 50-day EMA at $4,227 and the 100-day EMA at $4,322 ,which supports the ongoing recovery even with the recent pause. The August rally was very strong and one should expect a little consolidation, as evidenced by the relatively small candle bodies.
The RSI is at around 62, which indicates positive momentum. There is resistance at the $4,448 zone, $4,575 , and $4,666. There is support at $4,448 zone, $4,330 – $4,322 and $4,263 $4,205.
In my opinion, as long as price is above $4,322 , the recovery is intact with the potential to move above $4,448 to $4,575. However, a price breakdown below $4,322 would take away the recovery potential and expose the other lower rally zones.
The AUD/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 112.55 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthens against the Australian Dollar (AUD) as traders remain on high alert for further currency intervention from Japanese authorities.
Japan's former top currency diplomat, Mitsuhiro Furusawa, said on Thursday that Tokyo may conduct joint JPY intervention with the United States "at any time" and should signal the chance of faster-than-expected interest rate hikes to arrest the currency's slide.
Markets currently see a 76% chance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate hike in September, according to Tokyo Tanshi data, compared with 24% on July 30.
Yen undervaluation seen easing after Japan–US interventionDBS Group Research notes that the Japanese Yen’s mispricing has started to correct in the wake of recent official action. According to the bank, “the Japanese yen's (JPY) undervaluation has narrowed from record levels following Japan's second FX market intervention this year, which was conducted in co-ordination with the US,” underscoring the impact of rare, joint efforts by Japan and the US to rein in excessive JPY weakness.
Technical Analysis: AUD/JPY remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, AUD/JPY holds below the Bollinger middle band and the 100-day moving average, keeping the near-term bias bearish as price is capped beneath these overlapping resistance lines. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 50.43 is neutral, suggesting a consolidative tone rather than strong directional momentum while downside risks remain dominant as long as the cross stays under the 100-day average.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around the Bollinger middle band at 112.70, followed by the 100-day moving average at 112.90. A daily close above these levels would be needed to ease selling pressure and open the way toward the July 27 high of 114.67, en route to the Bollinger upper band near 115.40.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the August 10 low of 111.63. The key contention level is seen at the Bollinger lower band at 110.00, where a break would signal a deeper corrective phase toward the lower end of the recent range.(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,536.51 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,586.51 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 99,568.21 per tola from PHP 100,151.40 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,536.51
10 Grams
85,365.12
Tola
99,568.21
Troy Ounce
265,509.90
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 521.93 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 525.07 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,087.84 per tola from SAR 6,124.37 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
521.93
10 Grams
5,219.43
Tola
6,087.84
Troy Ounce
16,233.99
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The USD/JPY pair trades with a mild negative bias below mid-159.00s during the Asian session on Friday, though it remains close to a nearly two-week high touched the previous day.
Signs of cooling US inflation temper expectations for an immediate rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which keeps the US Dollar (USD) depressed. The Japanese Yen (JPY), on the other hand, draws some support from bets for further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), which contributes to capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair.
That said, borrowing costs in Japan remain significantly lower compared to other major economies, including the USD, which keeps the so-called JPY carry trade active. Furthermore, persistent geopolitical uncertainties should help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven Greenback and support the USD/JPY pair, warranting caution for bears.
From a technical perspective, the recent strong recovery from the 155.25-155.20 area, or the lowest since early May, stalls near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the intervention-led slump from a four-decade peak. Meanwhile, momentum indicators hint at waning upside momentum as the USD/JPY pair consolidates under dense resistance.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 56 is mildly positive, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped slightly below zero with a soft negative histogram. Hence, any subsequent move beyond the 50% retracement level at 159.61 might confront a hurdle near the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 159.85.
A move beyond these levels should pave the way for further gains to the 61.8% retracement at 160.65 and the higher Fibonacci resistances at 162.12 and 164.00. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at 158.58, ahead of the 23.6% retracement near 157.30, while a deeper slide would expose the structural floor around 155.23.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/JPY 4-hour chart
Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.13%-0.06%1.02%-0.21%0.03%0.48%0.73%EUR-0.13%-0.19%0.83%-0.45%-0.16%0.24%0.50%GBP0.06%0.19%0.99%-0.25%0.05%0.45%0.69%JPY-1.02%-0.83%-0.99%-0.90%-0.64%-0.37%-0.07%CAD0.21%0.45%0.25%0.90%0.27%0.54%0.98%AUD-0.03%0.16%-0.05%0.64%-0.27%0.40%0.66%NZD-0.48%-0.24%-0.45%0.37%-0.54%-0.40%0.24%CHF-0.73%-0.50%-0.69%0.07%-0.98%-0.66%-0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 510.58 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 513.66 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,955.32 per tola from AED 5,991.25 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
510.58
10 Grams
5,105.81
Tola
5,955.32
Troy Ounce
15,880.88
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 38,626.61 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 38,851.57 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 450,531.60 per tola from PKR 453,157.10 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
38,626.61
10 Grams
386,264.70
Tola
450,531.60
Troy Ounce
1,201,423.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 568.41 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 571.47 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,629.88 per tola from MYR 6,665.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
568.41
10 Grams
5,684.15
Tola
6,629.88
Troy Ounce
17,679.71
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,265.91 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,343.67 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 154,733.00 per tola from INR 155,637.90 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,265.91
10 Grams
132,658.70
Tola
154,733.00
Troy Ounce
412,633.90
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
However, the weekly candle today is important. A close below $4,200 this week will likely create further consolidation in the short term. On the other hand, a break above $4,500 this week will likely trigger a strong rally towards $5,000 next week.
Silver Price Targets $90 Above $72
The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows that the spot silver price remains below the $72 level, which increases the possibility of further consolidation before the next strong rally. A break above $72 is required to push the spot silver price towards the $90 level.
However, if the price breaks below the $60 support, then the possibility of another drop towards the $55 area will increase.
EUR/JPY remains flat after registering minor gains in the previous day, trading around 183.90 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross is holding above the short-term nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but remaining capped by the medium-term 50-period EMA.
The moving averages configuration, together with a near-neutral 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 48.21, suggests a consolidative tone with a slight bearish bias as the pair struggles to reclaim its 50-period EMA while still respecting nearby dynamic support.
The EUR/JPY cross may test the immediate support at its nine-day Exponential Moving Average of 183.59. A decisive break below this short-term indicator would strengthen the prevailing bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its eight-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3. If downward momentum continues, the next key technical target lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.
On the upside, the primary resistance lies at its 50-day EMA near 184.49. A sustained break above the medium-term price average could signal a broader bullish resurgence, opening the path for the pair to retest the area surrounding its all-time peak of 187.95 set on April 17.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.07%-0.10%-0.08%-0.03%-0.29%-0.07%EUR0.09%0.01%-0.02%-0.03%0.06%-0.20%0.01%GBP0.07%-0.01%0.00%-0.02%0.05%-0.19%0.02%JPY0.10%0.02%0.00%0.02%0.06%-0.21%0.04%CAD0.08%0.03%0.02%-0.02%0.04%-0.20%0.01%AUD0.03%-0.06%-0.05%-0.06%-0.04%-0.25%-0.03%NZD0.29%0.20%0.19%0.21%0.20%0.25%0.23%CHF0.07%-0.01%-0.02%-0.04%-0.01%0.03%-0.23%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) is seen extending the previous day's pullback from the vicinity of the $4,450 level, or the highest since June 5, and drifting lower for the second straight day on Friday. The downward trajectory dragged the commodity to a fresh weekly low, closer to the $4,300 mark during the Asian session. Persistent geopolitical uncertainties, to a large extent, offset receding US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets and act as a tailwind for the safe-haven US Dollar (USD), which, in turn, is seen weighing on the commodity.
In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Thursday that the US is going to apply measures that have never been seen on Iran. Meanwhile, a senior IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi said that Tehran's strategy is to make any conflict so costly that future US administrations think twice before taking military action against Iran. This comes on top of rising tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and keeps the war-risk premium in play, lending some support to the USD.
President Donald Trump again claimed that the US has "total control" over the strategic waterway, while Iran pledged to keep the strait closed until all its demands are met. Moreover, the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen escalated attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and also claimed a drone strike on a Saudi Aramco refinery, raising the risk of a broader regional conflict. Crude oil prices, however, remain depressed on the back of weak global demand outlook and an outsized build in US inventories.
Meanwhile, data released on Thursday showed that the US Producer Price Index (PPI) was unchanged in July, falling short of market expectations for a 0.2% rise. Adding to this, the yearly rate decelerated from 5.5% in June to 4.7%, also coming in below the 4.9% estimate. This, along with the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) released on Wednesday, pointed to a slowdown in overall inflation and gave the US Federal Reserve (Fed) room to keep interest rates unchanged, holding USD bulls from placing fresh bets.
Adding to this, mixed comments from influential FOMC members force traders to scale back expectations for an immediate policy tightening. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee pointed out that recent price spikes are largely driven by temporary tariff and energy factors, favoring patience rather than aggressive monetary tightening. However, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack argued that progress on inflation is still insufficient, asserting that further rate increases may be needed to secure price stability.
Nevertheless, Fed funds futures indicate just over a 65% probability of a rate hike by the end of this year, down from nearly 75% the previous day and 85% a week earlier. Furthermore, robust central bank demand could help limit further losses for the non-yielding Gold. A US SEC filing showed that the Bank of Korea held 679,765 shares of SPDR Gold Trust, valued at roughly USD 250.4 million as of the end of June. This, in turn, warrants caution before confirming that the XAU/USD pair has topped out in the near term.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Technical AnalysisThe precious metal holds above the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, and a dense cluster of Fibonacci supports, suggesting the broader uptrend is still intact despite the latest pullback. However, momentum has softened, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) below zero and its signal line, and the Relative Strength Index near 42, hinting that upside impulses are waning.
Meanwhile, immediate support appears at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the latest leg up from the August swing low, at $4,285. This is followed by deeper structural floors at the 50.0% retracement near $4,234 and the 61.8% level at $4,184, with the 200-period EMA reinforcing demand slightly below. On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 23.6% retracement at $4,347, ahead of the cycle high anchor around $4,448.40, where a sustained break would reopen the path toward additional gains.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1% to near $63.80 during the Asian trading session on Friday. The white metal faces selling pressure as financial markets remain worried about the global energy supply disruption due to the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab Strait, which together account for almost 27% of global energy supply.
Minimal traffic through these straits is keeping oil prices higher, a scenario that boosts inflation expectations and prompts fears of interest rate hikes by central banks. Such a case bodes poorly for non-yielding assets, like Silver.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades flat at around $80.45. The oil price has faced slight selling pressure in the past few days; however, supply concerns are expected to keep the downside limited.
Oil momentum cools, but TD Securities still sees upside ahead
According to TD Securities, the recent loss of steam in the rally has seen “easing near-term momentum” and has “also catalysed modest selling in WTI crude on the day.” However, the bank’s commodity strategists “continue to highlight that fundamental tightness across crude and product markets should ultimately support further upside,” suggesting that the latest bout of selling is viewed as a temporary setback within an otherwise constructive medium-term outlook for Oil prices.
Meanwhile, traders pricing out the possibility of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in the September meeting due to a slight slowdown in United States (US) inflation growth and rising labor market concerns are expected to limit the downside in the Silver price.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in the September meeting have increased to almost 65%. This is a sharp turnaround from a 75% chance that the Fed would deliver two interest rate hikes by the end of the September policy meeting, recorded a month ago.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at around $63.78, extending its advance above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $61.78 and hinting at a bullish near-term bias.
The metal is holding comfortably over its short-term trend indicator, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 56 stays in positive territory without reaching overbought conditions, suggesting that buyers retain control but still have room to push prices higher.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-day EMA near $61.78, which underpins the current bullish structure and would be the first level to watch on any pullback. A deeper slide would expose the broader momentum floor implied by the RSI zone around 56, where dip-buying interest could re-emerge as long as price holds above the $61 handle. On the upside, the June 16 high near $71.20 would be the key hurdle.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold is testing the $4,300 level as the corrective downside extends into a second day early Friday. Traders remain focused on Middle East developments, Oil price action, and US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations before placing fresh positional bets.
Gold: Dip-buying likely to emergeGold’s pullback comes on the back of profit-taking, following a rally spurred by growing doubts over a September Fed rate hike, particularly after unimpressive Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
The closely watched core annual CPI also matched expectations, increasing by 2.5% in July. Meanwhile, the monthly core CPI rose by 0.2% in the same period, following a flat reading in June. Meanwhile, the flat PPI reading for final demand last month followed a revised 0.1% drop in June.
Benign inflation readings, combined with the latest less-hawkish speeches from Fed policymakers, seem to have weighed heavily on imminent Fed rate-hike bets, with markets now pricing in only a 35% chance that the Fed will hike rates next month, from about 55% seen a week ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
According to TD Securities, the interest-rate backdrop remains constructive for bullion, with a Fed "likely to remain on hold, despite upside in energy prices" expected to leave "the yellow metal well-supported in the higher range." The bank suggests that the combination of steady policy and firmer input costs should help sustain gold’s recent resilience within this elevated trading band.
The main driver behind Gold’s correction could likely be the surge in US 30-year Treasury bond yields and US-Iran geopolitical tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.
Late Thursday, US 30-year Treasury yield topped 5.2%, hitting the highest level since 2001, following the US government’s monthly auction.
Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) reported on Thursday that Iran attacked two of its vessels as they transited the Strait of Hormuz, as a senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) official, Hossein Taeb, reaffirmed that the Strait of Hormuz is "under Iran's control and management".
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned early Friday that Washington is going to apply measures that have "never been seen" on Iran.
That being said, Gold is likely to attract dip-buying as Oil prices are on a three-day losing streak amid a grim global demand outlook. Fading Fed rate hike expectations will also continue to lend support to buyers amid a bullish technical setup on the daily chart.
Another factor supporting Gold is a Reuters report that “Venezuelan authorities plan to focus on reconstruction efforts and recovering gold reserves worth an estimated $4 billion held in the Bank of England's underground vaults.”
The focus will now remain on the University of Michigan (UoM) preliminary Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data as an eventful week draws to an end.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,315.03. The metal consolidates between its underlying short-term demand and overhead medium-term supply, as price holds above the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,164.38 and $4,145.23, but remains capped below the 100-day SMA at $4,386.28. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 58.78 leans bullish without being overbought, suggesting modest upside pressure while the broader trend tone stays neutral beneath the 200-day SMA at $4,504.32.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-day SMA at $4,386.28, ahead of the longer-term barrier defined by the 200-day SMA near $4,504.32. On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 21-day SMA at $4,164.38, followed closely by the 50-day SMA at $4,145.23, a short-term cluster that would need to give way to revive a deeper corrective phase.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
USD/JPY found support at 155.25 and started a recovery wave.
A rising channel is forming with support near 158.40 on the 4-hour chart.
Gold failed to extend gains above $4,450 and might correct some gains.
Bitcoin remains below the key resistance at $65,500 and $66,650.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis
The US Dollar started a decent recovery above 156.00 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY climbed above 157.20 to move into a short-term positive zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair almost tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 163.98 swing high to the 155.22 low. However, the bears seem to be active below 159.60.
The pair is also below the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 159.60.
The next major resistance might be 160.50 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above 160.50 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 161.20.
Any more gains might open the door for a test of 162.00. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 158.50. There is also a rising channel forming with support at 158.40.
The next major support could be near 158.00. The main support might be 157.20. A downside break and close below 157.20 might send the pair toward 156.50. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 155.25.
Looking at Gold, the bears are active below the $4,500 resistance, and they could aim for a downside correction in the near term.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US Retail Sales for July 2026 (MoM) – Forecast +0.1%, versus +0.2% previous.
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for August 2026 (Prelim) – Forecast 54.5, versus 55.2 previous.
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On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7878 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7888.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Money Metals Midweek Memo host Mike Maharrey opened this week’s episode with an old-fashioned banking analogy: Imagine somebody repeatedly claiming to have $100,000 in the bank but refusing to produce a statement or even balance the checkbook. The money might be there, but without verification, skepticism would be reasonable.
That, Maharrey argued, is essentially the situation with America’s gold reserves. He suspects the gold at Fort Knox probably is there. But “probably” isn’t the same as an independent, comprehensive audit.
That question framed one half of the episode. The other centered on an issue Maharrey believes could have much broader economic consequences. That is, recent U.S. intervention to support the Japanese yen and what the unusual mechanics of that intervention may reveal about the deteriorating position of the U.S. dollar.
The Dollar’s reserve-currency advantage is under pressureThe United States recently intervened in currency markets to support the Japanese yen. Such interventions aren’t extraordinary by themselves, but Maharrey argued that the way Washington went about it was revealing.
Dollar reserve status is enormously important to the U.S. monetary and fiscal system. Global demand for dollars absorbs some of the currency created by the Federal Reserve, while international demand for U.S. Treasuries helps finance federal borrowing.
Maharrey stressed that the dollar isn’t likely to suddenly lose reserve-currency status overnight. In his words, it remains the “cleanest dirty shirt in the laundry hamper.” But he argued that persistent borrowing, spending, debt accumulation, and money creation are gradually making the monetary system more fragile.
Normally, if the United States wants to strengthen the yen, it can sell dollars and use the proceeds to buy yen. Increased demand for yen strengthens the Japanese currency, but selling dollars can simultaneously put downward pressure on the greenback.
This time, the Treasury reportedly did something different.
Instead of buying yen with dollars, the U.S. used euros from its reserves. That allowed Washington to support the yen without directly selling dollars. According to the Financial Times, the operation “blindsided” the European Central Bank, which reportedly wasn’t informed until after the intervention.
Why Washington didn't want to sell dollarsUC Berkeley economist Barry Eichengreen argued in the Financial Times that the unusual transaction pointed toward a deeper concern - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other U.S. officials may have worried that selling dollar securities to support the yen would put additional pressure on the long end of the Treasury market.
That matters because weakening demand for Treasury securities means lower bond prices and higher yields. Higher yields, in turn, translate into higher borrowing costs for Washington.
Maharrey illustrated the problem with a simple example. If the yield on the 10-year Treasury is 3.5 percent instead of 2.5 percent, the federal government must pay more to borrow. That is especially problematic when the government is already spending more than $1 trillion per year on interest alone.
Japan's situation makes the dilemma even clearer.
When Japan needs to strengthen the yen, it can sell U.S. Treasury securities, receive dollars, and use those dollars to buy yen. Japan has apparently been doing exactly that. Its foreign currency reserves fell by $75.6 billion in May, an amount Bloomberg reported broadly matched the scale of yen intervention that month. Federal Reserve custody data also showed a decline in Japanese Treasury holdings consistent with liquidation.
But Japanese Treasury sales create a headache for Washington. More Treasuries hitting the market can push prices lower and yields higher precisely when the U.S. government needs to borrow enormous sums.
By stepping in to buy yen itself, Washington could therefore accomplish two things at once: support Japan’s currency and reduce Japan’s need to dump Treasuries.
Japan can get dollars without dumping treasuriesThere is another piece to the puzzle.
Japanese officials have indicated they will use the Federal Reserve’s Foreign and International Monetary Authorities, or FIMA, Repo Facility for future currency-support operations.
The Fed created the facility in March 2020 after foreign institutions needing dollars began selling Treasuries during the pandemic, contributing to severe volatility and dysfunction in the Treasury market.
FIMA gives eligible foreign monetary authorities another option. Rather than outright selling Treasuries, they can pledge those securities as collateral and obtain dollars from the Federal Reserve. The loans have a maximum maturity of seven days but can be rolled over.
For Japan, that creates a way to obtain dollars to support the yen without dumping Treasury securities onto the open market. For Washington, it potentially removes another source of selling pressure from the bond market.
Why hold reserves you can't freely use?For Maharrey, this is where the story becomes a de-dollarization story.
Eichengreen argued that the developments suggest the dollar’s status as a reserve currency “is not what it used to be.” Central banks traditionally hold dollar reserves partly because the Treasury market is deep and liquid, allowing those assets to be bought, sold, and deployed in currency interventions.
But what happens if foreign central banks face pressure not to sell their Treasury holdings because Washington is worried about the effect on its own bond market?
Why hold reserves, Maharrey asked, if you can’t freely use them when you need them?
Eichengreen warned that the dollar is becoming less attractive as a reserve currency and predicted that other countries could intensify their search for alternatives. In other words, reserve diversification – another form of de-dollarization – could accelerate.
Gold stands to benefitGold is one obvious alternative.
Capital Economics economist Kieran Tompkins argued that concerns about central banks conducting foreign-exchange operations without upsetting U.S. officials over Treasury-market consequences could provide fresh impetus for central bank gold demand.
That matters because central bank buying has been one of the major pillars supporting the gold bull market in recent years.
Maharrey argued that this demand has helped gold hold around the $4,000 level despite significant interest-rate headwinds and relatively subdued enthusiasm among Western investors. Asian investors, meanwhile, have been aggressively buying the recent dip.
With expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike fading and gold showing signs of breaking out of its range-bound trading pattern, Maharrey sees numerous indicators pointing toward a continuing gold bull market.
Rand Paul goes to Fort KnoxThe second half of the episode shifted from international currency markets to America’s most famous gold vault.
A few weeks earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had insisted that all of the gold at Fort Knox was present and accounted for, despite acknowledging that he had not personally visited the facility.
Then Sen. Rand Paul went to Fort Knox.
After spending roughly one or two hours inside the U.S. Bullion Depository, Paul emerged and declared that the gold was there – approximately 147 million ounces.
Maharrey wasn’t persuaded.
Based on the amount of gold the government says Fort Knox contains, there should be more than 300,000 gold bars inside. Many aren’t even standard modern bullion bars because some Fort Knox holdings originated with coins melted down following the gold policies of the 1930s. Those bars can have irregular weights and insufficient purity to qualify for international settlement.
In Maharrey’s view, there is simply no way somebody can verify more than 300,000 bars during a brief guided visit.
A tour isn't an auditMoney Metals CEO Stefan Gleason sharply criticized the episode, arguing that Paul had effectively been “rolled” after being given the opportunity to tour the mysterious facility.
Gleason also noted that Money Metals operates a precious-metals depository twice the physical size of Fort Knox. He argued that a brief visit cannot establish that America’s gold is fully accounted for, much less answer questions about whether any of it is encumbered.
Another issue is purity. Gleason said 83 percent of the gold is unacceptable on global markets due to insufficient purity.
The episode is especially striking because Paul co-sponsored the Gold Reserve Transparency Act of 2025 with prime sponsor Sen. Mike Lee. That legislation would have provided for a comprehensive audit of U.S. gold reserves.
Sound Money Defense League director Jp Cortez questioned why Paul would back a bill calling for a genuine accounting and then seemingly substitute a Fort Knox “field trip” and assurances that everything was there.
What a real Fort Knox audit would requireMaharrey emphasized that a legitimate audit involves much more than walking through a vault.
A proper independent examination would require every bar to be counted and inspected. Serial numbers would need to be reconciled with official records. Gold would need to be assayed to verify weight and purity. The resulting documentation would then need to be published for public examination.
An audit would also address chain of custody and potential encumbrances.
Has any Fort Knox gold been loaned to another entity? Has it been pledged, leased, swapped, or mobilized in currency operations? Does anybody else hold full or partial claims against metal sitting inside the vault?
Without a comprehensive published audit, Maharrey argued, the public simply cannot know.
The $6 billion questionThat leads to what Maharrey called the “$6 billion question”: Why not simply audit the gold?
He pointed back to 1974, when officials opened the Fort Knox vaults to outsiders. Maharrey characterized that episode as another publicity event rather than the type of rigorous accounting needed to settle the issue.
The continuing resistance to an independent audit only breeds suspicion, he argued. If a private company refused to audit its books and became hostile whenever somebody suggested doing so, that behavior would hardly inspire confidence.
Money Metals has firsthand experience with what a real bullion audit entails. The Money Metals Depository is larger than the U.S. Bullion Depository and undergoes both internal and external auditing.
For Maharrey, that should be the standard… verification rather than assurances.
Don't rely on Washington to protect your moneyThe two seemingly different topics of the episode ultimately came together around the same theme.
The dollar’s international position is showing signs of strain as the U.S. struggles to preserve demand for Treasury securities. Meanwhile, Washington continues asking Americans to accept assurances about the nation’s gold holdings without the kind of comprehensive public audit that would settle the question.
Maharrey also pointed to the long-running erosion of purchasing power, saying government policy is effectively designed to devalue money by more than 10 percent every five years.
His conclusion was that individuals shouldn’t depend on policymakers to preserve their wealth. Instead, he argued that saving in sound money such as physical gold and silver can provide a way to protect purchasing power from monetary debasement.
The dollar may remain the world’s dominant reserve currency for some time. But as Maharrey put it at the end of the episode, “the dollar is not what it used to be.”
The EUR/USD pair gains ground to near 1.1535 during the early Asian session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) softens against the Euro (EUR) following a softer-than-expected US inflation report. The US July Retail Sales data will take center stage later on Friday.
Wholesale costs for goods and services in the United States (US) were flat in July, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday. This figure followed a revised 0.1% decline in June and cooled by more than the expected 0.2%. This report added to evidence that inflationary pressure is gradually easing after Wednesday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, weighing on the Greenback.
Excluding food and energy, the core Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2%, below the market consensus of a 0.3% gain. On an annual basis, the headline PPI climbed 4.7% YoY in July, while the core PPI rose 4.2% YoY during the same period.
Markets are now pricing a 34.8% probability of a US rate hike at the September meeting, down from 40% immediately after the PPI data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) at its September monetary policy meeting. ECB President Christine Lagarde warned last month that renewed Middle East hostilities and the resultant rebound in oil prices pose upside risk to the Eurozone inflation outlook.
Dollar caught between fading Fed hike bets and Hormuz-related safe haven supportStrategists at Rabobank highlight the conflicting forces currently shaping the USD outlook. They argue that “if Fed rate hike speculation continues to be pared back, in line with RaboResearch’s view, the USD will be exposed to potential downside pressures.” However, they also stress that “the uncertainties regarding the re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz remain a USD supportive factor,” noting that at the start of the Iran war “the market was positioned short of USDs,” leaving the Dollar particularly sensitive to shifts in geopolitical risk and safe haven demand.
(This story was corrected on August 14 at 00:55 GMT to say, in the first bullet point, that “EUR/USD gains ground to around 1.1535 in Friday’s early Asian session, not European session.)
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD maintains a negative outlook in the near termIn the daily chart, EUR/USD keeps a mildly bearish tone as it holds beneath the 100-day moving average (MA) and the upper Bollinger Band. Price remains supported by the middle Bollinger Band and a 20-day simple moving average, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 58.3 shows improving but not overbought momentum, hinting at a corrective bounce that is still capped by overhead trend levels.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day MA at 1.1565, followed by the upper Bollinger Band at 1.1620, a break above which would be needed to ease the current downside bias. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the middle Bollinger Band near 1.1480, with a deeper floor aligning at the lower Bollinger Band around 1.1340, where selling pressure could pause if bears extend control.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Much of the chatter over the past week has centred on the downside surprise in US non-farm payrolls, the soft US CPI report and the undershoot in PPI overnight, which has seen Fed rate hike pricing pared over the next year.
The GBP/JPY remains directionless on Thursday as traders turn cautious about opening fresh directional bets amid intervention fears in the FX markets, which could strengthen the Yen, and after solid UK data. The cross-pair sits at around 215.00, down 0.02%.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookGBP/JPY faced strong resistance at around the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 215.44. leading to sideways movement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned flat at around its 50-neutral level, hinting that further consolidation lies ahead.
For a bullish resumption, the first resistance levels is the 50-day SMA and then the 216.00 milestone. A decisive break opens the path to 216.50 and ultimately reaches the 217.00 psychological barrier.
On the flip side, the GBP/JPY finds support at 215.00, with the 100-day SMA at 214.57 being up next. Beneath this area, the 200-day SMA stands at 212.12, just above the August 7 low of 211.47.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.18%-0.00%1.10%-0.15%0.03%0.72%0.78%EUR-0.18%-0.20%0.86%-0.41%-0.22%0.46%0.50%GBP0.00%0.20%1.01%-0.22%-0.02%0.64%0.69%JPY-1.10%-0.86%-1.01%-0.92%-0.72%-0.20%-0.09%CAD0.15%0.41%0.22%0.92%0.21%0.73%0.98%AUD-0.03%0.22%0.02%0.72%-0.21%0.66%0.70%NZD-0.72%-0.46%-0.64%0.20%-0.73%-0.66%0.05%CHF-0.78%-0.50%-0.69%0.09%-0.98%-0.70%-0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold price (XAU/USD) holds positive ground near $4,360 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal gains momentum following US inflation data. Traders will take more cues from the US July Retail Sales report, which is due later on Friday.
Softer US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation reinforced bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) will refrain from raising interest rates next month. Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday showed that the headline PPI was unchanged MoM in July, versus -0.1% prior, below the market expectations of 0.2%.
Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose 0.2% MoM in July, against the forecast for a 0.3% gain. On an annual basis, the headline PPI climbed 4.7% YoY in July, while the core PPI rose 4.2% YoY during the same period.
Cooler US PPI inflation data sharply reduced expectations for a Fed rate hike next month, which could provide some support to the yellow metal. Money markets priced in less than a 40% chance of a September Fed hike. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
On the other hand, ongoing tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding reopening the Strait of Hormuz could raise oil-driven inflation concerns and weigh on the Gold price. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned Washington to “be careful” after US President Donald Trump insisted the US has full control of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Iran's joint military command, Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, said on Thursday that no vessel could transit the critical waterway without Tehran's permission.
Gold support seen holding as Fed stays on pauseAccording to TD Securities, the interest-rate backdrop remains constructive for bullion, with a “Fed likely to remain on hold, despite upside in energy prices” expected to keep “the yellow metal well-supported in the higher range.” The bank suggests that the combination of steady Fed policy and firmer energy markets should help anchor gold prices within this elevated trading band.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the key 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD remains capped in the near term as it holds below the 100-day Moving Average (MA), while still trading comfortably above the Bollinger Bands’ middle line. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.72 shows firm but not extreme bullish momentum, which hints that upside attempts could continue, though the broader structure suggests rallies are vulnerable while price stays under the 100-day MA.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-day MA at $4,385, with a stronger barrier at the Bollinger Bands’ upper line near $4,435. On the downside, initial support emerges at the Bollinger middle band around $4,155, ahead of a deeper floor at the lower band near $3,880, where buyers would be expected to reassert themselves if the current pullback extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Euro-Dollar is likely to stay volatile around 1.15-1.16 through the coming months, with Rabobank seeing fading Fed hike bets offset by Dollar safe-haven demand. Foreign exchange analysts at Rabobank have raised its one-month Euro to Dollar forecast to 1.15 from 1.14, but still see little prospect of a clean breakout from the pair's recent range.
The Euro to US Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate was trading around 1.1529 late on Thursday, close to where it began August.
The pair has spent the past 48 hours between roughly 1.1514 and 1.1562, with the latest price towards the lower third of that range.
Image: EUR/USD 48h chart EUR/USD has struggled to sustain moves above 1.1550, with price action remaining contained inside a relatively narrow 48-hour range.
The US Dollar side of the equation remains complicated.
Rabobank argues that the traditional inverse relationship between oil and the US currency has weakened as the US has become a major energy exporter.
That shift helped the Dollar recover some of its safe-haven appeal when the Iran war began.
More recently, however, interest-rate expectations have taken over as the more important driver.
Rabobank said the earlier oil-Dollar relationship “appeared to break down in June”, adding that this was “likely linked to a run up in market speculation regarding the prospects of Fed rate hikes”.
Those expectations have since softened.
July US CPI matched forecasts, but the market still pared back some expectations for another Federal Reserve rate increase.
The softer payrolls report released beforehand also shaped the reaction, with weaker employment reducing concern over second-round inflation pressures.
“If Fed rate hike speculation continues to be pared back, in line with RaboResearch’s view, the USD will be exposed to potential downside pressures,” the bank said.
That is not quite the same as an outright bearish Dollar call.
Rabobank still sees uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz as an important source of USD support.
It argues that as long as shipping remains curtailed, the Dollar should retain a safe-haven premium, while the Eurozone remains more vulnerable to the growth and inflation consequences of expensive energy.
“For as long as shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is curtailed, the USD is likely to retain a safe haven premium, supported by the US’s energy exporter status,” Rabobank said.
EUR/USD Outlook: Range First, Breakout Later? The bank therefore expects two competing forces to keep EUR/USD unsettled rather than drive a sustained directional move.
Lower Fed hike expectations favour a softer Dollar. Energy and geopolitical risks work the other way, particularly because they make investors less willing to rebuild large Euro positions.
Rabobank concludes that “choppy range trading” should dominate through the rest of 2026, with only a modest medium-term upward bias.
Its one-month EUR/USD forecast has been lifted to 1.15 from 1.14, while the bank expects the 1.15-1.16 area to dominate on a three-to-six-month view.
Image: The Euro to Dollar exchange rate sentiment survey - 2026, 2027, 2028 The broader bank consensus becomes progressively more Euro-positive through 2027, although the forecast range widens substantially further out.
That makes Rabobank noticeably restrained relative to the longer-run consensus.
The bank is not ruling out further Euro gains, but neither falling Fed expectations nor current Dollar weakness are enough to persuade it that EUR/USD is ready for a sustained break higher.
For the time being, 1.15-1.16 is less a target than the battleground.
Throughout July, I had been noting the repeated failed attempts from gold bears to sustain a break below 4,000. And when a level won’t budge, the market has a tendency to eventually go the other way.
Last Tuesday, August 4, I outlined a case for a breakout, arguing that price action, options pricing and futures sentiment all hinted at quiet accumulation. Maybe I got lucky with the timing, but the breakout on August 5 was spectacular, to say the least, with gold rising 5% to mark its best day since February and its second-best day in ten years.
While I suspect gold bulls have more planned, price action on Thursday shows prices have wobbled at their cycle high, hinting at the first bump in the road.
View related analysis:
Gold Price Outlook: Can Quiet Accumulation Trigger a Breakout? ASX 200 Outlook: Potential Bull Flag Forms Beneath Record Highs US Dollar Bounce Looks Vulnerable, EUR/USD Respects Resistance for Now Japanese Yen Outlook: US CPI, Intervention Risks Put USD/JPY Bulls on Notice FX Futures Positioning: US Dollar Longs Plunged, Yen Shorts Slashed Gold Wobbles, but ‘Dip’ Mentality Could Remain The daily chart shows a solid rally from 4,000 support, although resistance was met around a prior weekly VPOC (volume point of control), just below 4,500. A bearish outside day engulfed Tuesday’s small doji and Wednesday’s small bullish candle, but so far, support has held around 4,400, close to the weekly VPOC at 4,404.
A break beneath this area would bring the 200-day EMA into focus near 4,300, along with the lower end of the recent trading range. If we see bears take full control, the next level they could potentially target is around 4,200, near the recent range lows.
However, given the strength of the bullish range expansion after a prolonged period of consolidation above 4,000, my bias remains for a move towards 4,700, with 4,600 likely to provide interim resistance along the way should the rally continue. Moreover, futures and options sentiment also appears supportive of a “buy the dip” mentality among gold bulls, some of whom may be frustrated at having missed the initial burst higher.
Source: COMEX, TradingView
Gold Price Outlook: Futures Positioning and Options Signals Gold Futures (GC) Positioning | COT Report Net-long exposure has continued to trend higher to gold futures, among large speculators and managed funds managers. Recent data from the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows funds had a net-long exposure of 131k contracts, their most bullish level in more than six months. Large specs pushed their net-long exposure to a 6-month high just shy of 200k. While gross-longs have been trending gradually higher, it is the collapse of short bets that helped propel net-longs in recent weeks. And I suspect that will continue to be a supporting feature for higher gold prices, with a lack of bearish interest for now.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Gold Options Positioning Signals Cautious Bullishness Two of the three risk reversals I track had flipped into positive territory last week, for the first time since mid-April. This showed that demand for calls outnumbers demand for puts. But we also saw the risk reversals accelerate from low levels ahead of the breakout to show options traders quickly moving away from downside protection relative to bullish bets. The fact it has dipped to negative territory this week is not enough to call for a major swing high in my books, but it does back up the potential for a minor pullback over the near term
Gold’s rejection near $4,450 and converging moving-average resistance raises pullback risk, while key support levels will determine whether the broader recovery remains intact.
In this article:Gold
-1.43%
Gold Forecast$4,450 Rejection Raises Pullback Risk
Gold showed signs of weakening on Thursday that could lead to a pullback. A bearish outside day developed following a failed attempt to extend the short-term bull trend. Earlier in the session, a slightly new high of $4,450 was reached before sellers took back control, resulting in a bearish intraday trend that looks set to end near the lows of the session. A daily close below $4,357 would confirm a two-day bearish reversal. That would strengthen the case for a short-term correction after the recent advance, particularly given the resistance that has emerged near $4,382-$4,389.
Spot gold daily chart shows short-term selling pressure. Source: TradingView
Resistance Cluster Challenges Recovery
Resistance has held near the confluence of a lower swing high near $4,382 and the 100-day moving average around $4,389. The lower swing high is joined by a more significant earlier peak of $4,382 in October 2025. This clustering of resistance adds significance to the current failure to extend the advance and increases the importance of the $4,357 level for confirming further weakness.
An initial potential support area for a deeper pullback would be around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, along with the uptrend line. That trendline failed as support in late June but it subsequently recovered the line without gold falling very far below it. A successful test of that support would therefore help preserve the broader recovery structure despite near-term weakness.
How Deep Could a Pullback Go?
Certainly, there are lower potential targets if support fails at the trendline, with trading above the uptrend line showing greater underlying strength of the recovery than if lower levels are tested. Nonetheless, a typical pullback may test support near the lower swing high near $4,203 or the 50-day moving average around $4,145. Each of those levels is below the uptrend line. Taken together, another decline below the rising trendline should not necessarily be a concern for the bulls given potential dynamic support represented by the 50-day moving average, as well as the 20-day moving average near $4,157. However, a decisive break below both moving averages would weaken the short-term bullish structure and increase the probability of a deeper retracement.
Spot gold weekly chart shows longer-term trend. Source: TradingView
Weekly Chart Adds Another Warning
Further, with one day left to the week, gold is at risk of generating a bearish candlestick pattern and setting up a potential one-week bearish reversal on a drop below this week’s low. In addition, the weekly chart confirms strong resistance near this week’s highs as the 20-week and 50-week moving averages have converged near this week’s highs. That longer-term resistance reinforces Thursday’s bearish warning. If support holds, the recovery remains intact; a break would signal a deeper correction.
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With over 20 years of experience in financial markets, Bruce is a seasoned finance MBA and CMT® charter holder. Having worked as head of trading strategy at hedge funds and a corporate advisor for trading firms, Bruce shares his expertise in futures to retail investors, providing actionable insights through both technical and fundamental analyses.
The USD/MXN extends its downtrend for the 14th straight day, down a minimal 0.08% as the Mexican Peso hovers near a 24-month low of 17.01 on Thursday. At the time of writing, the emerging-market currency pair trades below 17.05 as traders digest recent soft US inflation figures on the consumer and producer sides.
USD/MXN Price Forecast: Technical OutlookAfter clearing the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) by the end of July, the USD/MXN accelerated its downtrend to yearly lows. Worth noting that the market structure of lower-highs and lower-lows is respected, and a breach below the 17.00 figure could open the door for further downside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests the downtrend could be losing steam. Although USD/MXN drifts lower, the rate of change between sessions has narrowed, meaning that market participants remain reluctant to open fresh directional bets.
This could mean two things: first, that some consolidation lies ahead before the downtrend resumes to challenge the lower levels hit in 2024; or that USD/MXN could’ve found its floor and reversed course, aiming higher.
For the first scenario, if the USD/MXN clears below 17.00, this opens the path to challenge May’s 2024 monthly low of 16.52, followed by April’s 2024 low of the month at 16.26. Once those two levels are removed, the next support is at 16.00.
Conversely, if USD/MXN rises above the 50-day SMA at 17.38, followed by the 100-day SMA at 17.40, it could exacerbate a rally towards 17.50. On further strength, the next resistance is the 200-day SMA at 17.59.
USD/MXN Price Chart – Daily
USD/MXN daily chart Mexican Peso FAQs The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity.
The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN.
Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate.
As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
The USD/CHF trades near the top trendline of a ‘bearish-flag,’ holds steady at around 0.8034, following the release of good inflation data on the producer side.
Price action shows that the bullish market structure of successive higher highs and higher lows remains intact, suggesting further upside. However, momentum flattened despite bullish conditions, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI). This suggests that buyers need to be cautious about a potential pullback if USD/CHF tumbles below 0.8000.
For a bullish continuation, the pair must clear the top trendline of the bearish flag near 0.8140/45 before launching an attack towards 0.8200. Once those levels are surpassed, the next stop is the June 19, 2025, daily high at 0.8215, followed by the June 4 2025, peak at 0.8250.
Downwards, the first support is the August 12 low of the day (LOD) at 0.8094. Once surpassed, it opens the door towards the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8076.
Swiss Franc FAQs
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
Japanese Yen Talking Points: It’s a cat and mouse game in USD/JPY as bulls are clawing back in the pair following the dual intervention two weeks ago. The pair had stalled just inside of 165 two weeks ago but bulls remained aggressive on pullbacks or at support, ultimately leading to the intervention order. But after the sell-off, is there a new line in the sand at 160, or is the BoJ going to react passively? Rumors of a BoJ rate hike in September have done little to deter buyers in the pair and inflation in Japan came in at 1.7%, so half of what just printed in the US at 3.4%. There’s not pressing demand for a rate hike right now other than to try to quell Yen weakness and markets seem to be sniffing that out already.
USD/JPY is up more than 400 pips from the lows of last week, and bulls are tip-toeing back into the pair. While there hasn’t been an emphatic breakout yet, there has been ardent defense of support and of recent that’s come in at higher-lows. This sets up for a dangerous backdrop, on both sides of the pair, as the carry remains positive for longs and the fundamental bias is still decisively-tilted against the Japanese Yen.
The 164/165 area is probably safe to assume as a hard line in the sand given that we’ve already seen an intervention at that price but perhaps the bigger question for now is whether the BoJ would respond to a test above 160.00 in USD/JPY. That’s the price that they defended back in April of 2024 and it was a level that got attention earlier in the year, leading into a ‘rate check’ from the US Treasury Department via the New York Federal Reserve.
Those normally happen from the Japanese side of the matter and the fact that the US Treasury Department and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent were so interested in the matter is what makes our current situation so unique. Solo interventions have often failed, like the one in April of 2024. The BoJ buying yen and forcing a pullback into USD/JPY have, in essence, just created an opportunity for bulls to position-in at more favorable prices. But, historically, dual interventions have tended to show more success in stabilizing and even reversing exchange rates although there’s the very real question of funding from the US side as Scott Bessent’s approach two weeks ago came into question from Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal, who Bessent later attacked and called him a ‘stenographer that relies on backroom gossip.’
Gossip and innuendo aside, like I said after the intervention long USD/JPY at 155.00 could make more sense as it seemed unlikely that we’d get an intervention there. And with the harboring expectation that the US will hike rates later this year there’s still rational for the carry trade, which means there’s still a need for hedges against JPY currency weakness.
For this week, the risk factor was US data and if that did show a cratering in inflation, then there could be rationale for longs to close, similar to episodes in November 2022 or 2023, or again in July of 2024. But that inflation remained well above target, even if below expectations for PPI and right at the expectation for CPI.
So, the question now is two-fold. The first is for how long might bulls be able to push? Traditionally this would be a gradual affair where buyers in the pair go for a little more and a little more until, eventually, they pose a breakout. It’s what happens after that matters as a failure from the BoJ to respond will lead to a stronger topside move as markets try to sniff out weakness. And secondly, if bulls do get beyond 160.00, are Bank of Japan officials standing by to try to swat down the move, similar to April of 2024?
At this point, a short-term ascending triangle can be argued in USD/JPY, which is a bullish breakout formation defined by horizontal resistance and a series of higher-lows. That high is showing below the 160.00 handle so as we go into late-week trade, we may see a push from bulls to get closer to that test of the big figure, and perhaps even a test beyond that, with the very real question as to whether policymakers from either economy will show more aggression this time.
USD/JPY Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview USD/JPY Beyond 160.00 The difficult part about interventions is often the subjectivity behind them. While USD/JPY broke out above 160 and ultimately stalled just below 165, it was the response after the FOMC meeting that ultimately compelled the BoJ to act.
And that response from markets that led to the intervention was one of persistence as a Fed-fueled dip was merely bought by bulls and even with USD weakness showing more prominently against the Euro or British Pound, USD/JPY still retained strength. It was the BoJ intervention later that night that began to shift matters and then the next morning, the US Treasury Department jumping in.
So, while 160.00 would be a logical place for a more aggressive defense, the fact of the matter is that we simply don’t know if that would be the line in the sand, because, after all, interventions are not ideal as it requires burning finite FX reserves to bid down an exchange rate that your own policy is encouraging.
And on the rate hike front, there’s not really pressing demand for that in Japan, where CPI is roughly half the level of that seen in the US. This, once again, speaks to the fundamental bias on the long side of the pair and it’s even more rationale for longs to continue accumulating save for the risk of intervention.
But, if we do see that test above 160 the next spot circled on my chart is 160.60, which is both a prior swing-high turned swing-low that’s confluent with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent sell-off. And the 38.2% retracement of that move is what caught the lows after the CPI print yesterday, inviting bulls to jump back in on the trend.
Remember what happened in 2022 – when the BoJ wanted to defend 150 but they waited, and by the time they did intervene price was at 151.95. If 160 gets taken out, the next move can happen very quickly.
USD/JPY Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Silver trades modestly lower on Thursday, holding within Monday’s trading range as buyers take a breather following the strong rally seen at the start of the month. The metal largely shrugs off the latest US inflation data, which has reduced the chances of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $64.00, down 0.80% on the day.
While fading Fed rate-hike expectations would normally support the non-yielding metal, traders appear reluctant to chase Silver higher. The July inflation readings are seen as delaying the next rate increase rather than taking it off the table, as the inflation outlook remains uncertain and energy-driven price pressures could pick up again with the Strait of Hormuz still closed. This keeps the US Dollar (USD) supported near the upper end of its recent range, adding to the headwinds for Silver.
Technical analysis
XAG/USD holds above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $61.42 after rebounding strongly from the mid-$50s. Momentum indicators suggest that Silver could enter a period of consolidation before its next directional move.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 58 after climbing above 60 earlier this week, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in positive territory but its green histogram bars are fading. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 27 suggests the uptrend is still developing but lacks strong conviction.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 100-day SMA at $68.80, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.56. On the downside, the 50-day SMA at $61.42 offers immediate support, followed by the $60.00 psychological mark. A deeper pullback could expose the $55.00 horizontal support area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold (XAU/USD) price declines on Thursday as the US Dollar (USD) trims some of its earlier losses, as economic data in the US showed that the disinflation process continues, amid a moderately softening jobs market. At the time of writing, the XAU/USD pair trades at $4,365, down 1%, after reaching a daily high of $4,449.
XAU/USD retreats as traders digest softer US inflation and Fed splitStrangely, the yellow metal fails to capitalize on early US Dollar weakness, which so far has trimmed its earlier losses and is almost flat, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of the buck versus six currencies, trades almost flat around the 100.00 milestone.
US Treasury yields edged lower as market participants trimmed their Federal Reserve (Fed) hawkish bets following the release of July’s Producer Price Index (PPI) data. The US 10-year Treasury yield is down four basis points at 4.647%.
US PPI edged lower from 5.5% to 4.7% YoY. The Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, expanded 4.2% YoY as expected, down from 4.7% registered in June. At the same time, the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose from 200K to 209K in the week ending August 8, exceeding forecasts for a 202K print.
Money markets had adjusted their expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rates. Now traders see a 40% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike, while the odds of a hold have increased to 60%. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials remained split, with a camp seeking a rate increase and others, led by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, calling for rates to remain steady.
Cleveland Fed Beth Hammack said the US should raise rates to curb growth and inflation. She noted businesses are eager to borrow for investment in "growth opportunities,” but a rapid economic reacceleration could hinder disinflation.
Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said it's an “open question” if a rate hike is needed to meet inflation targets, noting inflationary pressures are from shocks that “should pass.”
On Friday, the US economic docket will feature the release of July Retail Sales and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.
XAU/USD price forecast: Gold retreats below $4,400, eyes on 50-day SMAGold consolidates below the $4,400 threshold as traders rush to book profits, following the release of US data. Bullish momentum is fading, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is edging towards its 50-neutral level, suggesting buyers are losing steam.
Worth noting that XAU/USD has fallen to new three-day lows of $4,351, which could exacerbate a move lower. The next area of interest would be $4,300. Once breached, the next stop is the July 6 high at $4,202. Once cleared, the next key support levels are the 50-day SMA at $4,145 and $4,100.
On the other hand, if the $4,400 mark is reclaimed, this paves the way to test the $4,450 psychological level. Breaking this could lead to the 200-day SMA at the $4,500 mark.
Gold daily chart
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The number that has weighed most on silver this year was set at a US government bond auction in late July, the first since 2008 to pay this much above inflation.
Silver pays you nothing to hold it. So, the question sitting underneath its price is always what you give up by owning it instead of something safe, and in July that alternative got about as attractive as it has been in eighteen years. Then it started reversing. In the ten days since, a weak jobs report and a second consecutive month of cooling inflation have cut the odds of a rate rise sharply, and silver has gained 11%. The metal did not rally because inflation frightened anyone. It rallied because inflation stopped frightening the Federal Reserve.
Silver trades near $65.32 an ounce as I write, with gold around $4,379 and the gold-silver ratio at 67.0, down from 69.1 when this issue went out on August 5. Silver is up more than 70% year over year, still about 8% lower on the year and roughly 46% below the January high. The ratio matters as much as the price here: it means silver has outpaced gold through the move, which is the pattern you would expect if falling rate expectations are doing the work. Tracing that chain from a bond auction to a silver price is the sort of work I do at Golden Meadow®.
The most hawkish meeting of the cycleOn July 29 the Federal Reserve held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, and the vote was the story. Beth Hammack of Cleveland, Neel Kashkari of Minneapolis and Lorie Logan of Dallas each dissented in favour of raising rates. Three policymakers had not pushed the same direction together since September 2016.
Chair Kevin Warsh has removed forward guidance from the Fed's communication entirely. Asked whether five years of inflation above target had created a softer unofficial goal, he told reporters there is only a target, and it is 2 percent.
Six days earlier, the bond market had already delivered the number that mattered more.
The auctionOn July 23 the Treasury sold ten-year inflation-protected bonds at a real yield of 2.438%, the highest for that maturity at auction since October 2008. Demand was weak even at that level.
A real yield is what a bond pays you after inflation. These particular bonds adjust their payments to whatever inflation turns out to be, then add a fixed amount on top. So a buyer at that auction locked in inflation plus 2.44% a year, for ten years, with no storage cost and no price risk if the bond is held to maturity.
That is the bar silver has to clear to be worth owning, and it had not been that high since the financial crisis.
Here is the part most commentary got backwards. The same auction showed investors expecting inflation of only 2.26% a year over the coming decade, below what the last ten years actually delivered. So this was never a market bracing for runaway prices. It was a market demanding a much better real return simply to lend to the government at all, driven by war risk and by the sheer volume of borrowing coming from Washington and from the companies building artificial intelligence capacity. Long-dated yields reached a nineteen-year high in the days after the meeting.
The distinction is not academic. If the problem had been inflation expectations, then hotter inflation would have helped silver. Because the problem was real yields, hotter inflation would have made things worse by putting the Fed back in play.
What happened nextCooler inflation is what actually arrived. The August 7 employment report came in weak. Then July consumer prices eased for a second consecutive month to 3.4%, rising just 0.1% from June. Markets now put the odds of a September rate rise at roughly 40%, down from about 50% the day before the inflation print and from around two thirds in early August.
Lower rate expectations, lower yields, a softer dollar. Silver went from $58.74 to $65.32 and reached its highest level since June.
Sources: Federal Reserve: FOMC Statement, July 29, 2026 | CNBC: Divided Fed Holds Rates Steady | Tipswatch: 10-Year TIPS Auction Gets Real Yield of 2.438% | Trading Economics: Silver | CNBC: Where Gold Is Headed as Rate Hike Odds Change Direction
What this Means to Silver investorsIs this good for silver? In the near term, yes, and for a reason worth understanding rather than celebrating.
Nothing about silver's supply or demand improved over these two weeks. Metals Focus and the Silver Institute still forecast a market shortfall of 46.3 million ounces for 2026, running into the sixth consecutive year of deficit. Mine supply is still expected to come in essentially flat. What changed is the alternative. When the safe return on offer falls, the cost of holding an asset that pays no income falls with it, and silver becomes easier to own. That is the whole mechanism, and it works in reverse just as reliably.
Which leads to the second point, and it is a caution. This rally rests on rate expectations, not on the metal. Two data releases moved it, and two more could move it back. Producer price data lands today, September remains genuinely live at 40%, and three voting members of the committee were arguing for higher rates a fortnight ago. A hot inflation print would put the hurdle straight back where it was.
The third point is the one to carry longest. If you own silver partly as protection against inflation, this fortnight is a useful correction to that instinct. Silver did not rise when inflation was the fear. It rose when the fear receded. The number to watch is the real yield rather than the inflation headline, because inflation only reaches the silver price through what the Federal Reserve does about it. I track that channel issue by issue in the Silver Catalyst. In 2026 that transmission has run against silver more often than for it, and the longer-term case rests on the supply and demand arithmetic underneath rather than on any single month of rate pricing.
One honest complication. The Strait of Hormuz negotiations that helped pull oil down in early August have stalled, with both sides hardening their positions. Elevated energy prices feed back into inflation, which feeds back into the Fed. The chain that has just worked in silver's favour is the same chain that can turn around, and it runs through a shipping lane rather than through a mine.
In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire details how the August gold breakout caught mainstream analysts off guard, as central banks and sovereign buyers accelerate their shift away from dollar debt and into physical gold at a new pace.
As Shanghai silver premiums hit 13% and Chinese demand surges back into the market, the precious metals expert outlines why both metals remain deeply attractive — and why the window to act ahead of a structural repricing is narrowing.
Timestamps:00:00 Start02:42 Why the August gold breakout was not about headlines, and what really drove it06:53 Central banks reducing dollar holdings in favour of physical gold11:08 How Project Enbridge and the yuan are building a non-dollar settlement system16:57 Why London's tokenised gold push is a structural mistake20:07 JP Morgan's strategy: concede the gold story publicly, contain it synthetically25:18 Short-term chart footprints and where institutional support is building33:39 Silver's breakout: what the premiums and ETF flows are signalling37:57 Why silver could double from current levels into year end
The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers modest gains versus the Greenback on Thursday as US inflation data in the producer side came in below or in line with estimates, showing that the disinflation process continues. At the time of writing, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3503, up 0.06%. Read More...
British Pound recovers early losses against US Dollar, US PPI data eyedThe British Pound (GBP) claws back its early losses against the US Dollar (USD) and flattens at around 1.3495 during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair bounces back as the US Dollar (USD) comes under pressure with investors prioritizing easing fears of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hikes in the near term over ongoing Middle East tensions. Read More...
British Pound drifts away from 1.3500 as UK GDP slows down and Industrial Production fallsThe British Pound (GBP) treads water against the US Dollar (USD), trading practically flat, a few pips below the 1.3500 level on Thursday's early London session. A rather positive UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report has been offset by downbeat factory output figures, while the US Dollar keeps wavering within range, as Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary tightening expectations shrink. Read More...
Key Points:EUR/USD moved higher as traders focused on U.S. economic reports. USD/CAD declined towards the support at 1.3920 - 1.3935 despite the pullback in precious metals markets. USD/JPY remained stuck near the 159.50 level.
In this article:EUR/USD
+0.01%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
-0.11%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.07%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
+0.09%
USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Is Losing Ground As Traders Focus On Producer Prices Data
DXY 130826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at 99.85 – 100.00 as traders focus on Producer Prices report.
The report indicated that PPI was unchanged on a month-over-month basis in July, compared to analyst forecast of +0.2%. Core PPI increased by +0.2%, compared to analyst forecast os +0.3%.
Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at the Initial Jobless Claims report. The report showed that 209,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 202,000.
In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 100.00 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 100.50 – 100.65 range.
EUR/USD Moved Higher As Euro Area Industrial Production Beat Estimates EUR/USD 130826 4h Chart EUR/USD gained some ground as traders focused on the Euro Area Industrial Production report. The report showed that Industrial Production was unchanged in June, compared to analyst consensus of -0.1%.
The nearest support level for EUR/USD is located in the 1.1510 – 1.1525 range. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1510 level, it will head towards the next support at 1.1435 – 1.1450.
GBP/USD Moved Lower Despite Strong GDP Data GBP/USD 130826 4h Chart GBP/USD pulled back despite the better-than-expected GDP Growth Rate report from the UK. The report indicated that UK GDP Growth Rate was +1.2% in the second quarter, compared to anlayst forecast of +1.1%.
Traders also focused on the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production reports. Industrial Production declined by -0.2% month-over-month in june, compared to anlayst forecast of +0.1%. Manufacturing Production decreased by -0.5%, while anlaysts expected that it would decline by -0.2%.
A successful test of the support level at 1.3465 – 1.3480 will open the way to the test of the next support at 1.3335 – 1.3350. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/CAD Remained Stuck Near Support At 1.3920 – 1.3935 USD/CAD 130826 4h Chart USD/CAD moved away from session highs despite the pullback in precious metals markets. Gold declined towards the $4350 level, while silver settled back below $65.00. Other commodity-related currencies moved lower in today’s trading session.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle back below the support level at 1.3920 – 1.3935. In case USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3920 level, it will head towards the next support level at 1.3825 – 1.3840.
USD/JPY Settled Near The 159.50 Level USD/JPY 130826 4h Chart USD/JPY remains stuck below the key resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00 as traders ignored the pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below 4.65%.
Analysts expect that BoJ will raise rates at the next meeting in September, but these expectations do not provide support to the Japanese currency.
If USD/JPY moves above the 160.00 level, it will gain additional upside momentum and head towards the resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00. The key question is whether BoJ is ready to intervene again in case USD/JPY climbs above the psychologically important 160.00 level.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.
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Short-term Forex Movements Point to a Softening US Dollar early on ThursdayEUR/USD, Copper, and FTSE 100 Forecast: US PPI Data Threats Loom LargeUS Dollar Price Forecast: Can PPI Revive DXY as EUR/USD and GBP/USD Retreat?About the Author
Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
EUR/USD has held at some interesting levels, at least, as the volatility that showed up to weeks ago has taken a back seat to back-and-forth price action. And while it's difficult to say that the largest component of the USD basket is probably being driven by the second largest component, the fact of the matter is that evidence seems to suggest that it is.
AUD/JPY rose for seven straight sessions but slipped about 0.2% today as the yen strengthened on intervention fears and BoJ hike expectations Japan and the US conducted a rare coordinated yen-buying intervention in early August, the first such joint action since 2011 The wide Australia-Japan interest-rate gap still underpins the carry trade. However, there is a rising likelihood of a near-term volatility from policy signals The Australian dollar’s recent upward trend against the Japanese yen has been a significant topic in foreign exchange markets. A seven-session winning streak is a notable achievement for any currency pair, particularly one often viewed as an indicator of market risk sentiment.
However, this streak ended today. The AUD/JPY pair saw a decline of approximately 0.2% during New York trading, settling around 112.37 compared to a previous close of 112.60. This shift raises questions about the underlying causes and whether this marks a more substantial change or a temporary pullback.
Yen Intervention Risk Hasn’t Gone Away The most important piece of context here is what happened just two weeks ago. Japan and the United States confirmed a rare, coordinated yen-buying intervention, aiming to stop the currency’s slide to 40-year lows. Tokyo signaled it’s ready to act again if needed.
This wasn’t just any intervention. It was the first joint effort since 2011, and the market can’t simply ignore it. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced that message, stating Washington “won’t hesitate to participate in further joint intervention.” He also pushed for more rate hikes from the Bank of Japan. That combination creates a persistent headwind for anyone holding long AUD/JPY positions.
The yen also strengthened after traders looked at the Bank of Japan’s recent Summary of Opinions. BoJ members pointed out growing risks of domestic inflation, leading some to think that Japanese officials might raise interest rates again, possibly in September.
What Does This Mean for the Carry Trade? AUD/JPY has long been a favourite among carry traders. AUD/JPY has long been a favorite among carry traders. This strategy works best when Australian rates stay high (or rise) and the yen remains weak and stable. Today’s price action suggests both pillars are wobbling a bit.
It looks like the period of easy gains during the rally might be turning into a trading range. As the BoJ moves closer to normalizing its policies and yields on long-term Japanese government bonds rise, the net return from the interest rate difference becomes less protected from sudden currency dips.
How to Position From Here? None of this necessarily signals the rally is over. Seven consecutive days of gains represent a strong upward move, and a single 0.2% dip is within the normal range for profit-taking. However, traders should now consider the risk of intervention as a consistent element for this currency pair, rather than an isolated event.
This suggests adopting tighter stop-losses and smaller position sizes for any new long entries, rather than aggressively pursuing new highs. Longer-term investors who can tolerate market fluctuations may still find the interest rate differential appealing. It is advisable to maintain strict stop-losses around upcoming speeches by Reserve Bank of Australia officials and releases of Japanese inflation data to mitigate potential volatility.
Why did AUD/JPY fall about 0.2% today after seven session gains?
The Japanese yen got a slight lift today. New intervention warnings surfaced, and people are increasingly expecting a Bank of Japan rate hike this September.
What still supports the AUD/JPY carry trade?
Australia’s cash rate is higher than Japan’s policy rate, creating a big interest-rate difference. This still makes holding the Australian dollar attractive.
How significant is the recent US-Japan intervention?
That coordinated action in late July did give the yen a short-term boost, but its impact has mostly faded. The carry trade now looks attractive once more.
EUR/USD holds modest gains on Thursday as softer-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) data fails to trigger a strong reaction in the pair. At the time of writing, EUR/USD trades around 1.1537 after recovering from an intraday low of 1.1511, its lowest level in more than a week.
Data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the headline PPI was unchanged in July after falling by 0.1% in June, while the annual rate eased to 4.7% from 5.5%. Core PPI rose by 0.2% MoM, down from 0.4%, while the annual rate slowed to 4.2% from 4.7%.
The report follows Wednesday’s broadly in-line Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed both headline and core inflation easing on an annual basis. Together with the weaker-than-expected July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, the latest inflation figures have dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign a 32% probability of a September rate hike, down from 55% a week ago. The repricing weighs on the US Dollar Index (DXY), which retreats below the 100 psychological mark after touching a two-week high earlier in the day.
US Treasury yields are also falling across the curve. The 2-year yield, which is particularly sensitive to expectations for Fed policy, trades around 4.14%, its lowest level since July 17.
However, the pair’s muted response suggests traders are reluctant to build large positions as elevated energy prices and the lack of progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz keep upside inflation risks in place.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said on Thursday that the latest two inflation reports were “welcome news,” although she was not confident that the progress would continue. She added that the labour market is stable, while inflation caused by supply shocks has proved more persistent. “My view is we need to act now,” Hammack said.
While expectations for a September Fed rate hike have eased, markets still see the ECB raising rates next month. A Reuters poll conducted from August 10 to 13 showed that 57 of 69 economists expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% in September.
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.11%-0.22%0.00%-0.02%0.07%-0.26%EUR0.16%0.05%-0.07%0.12%0.14%0.21%-0.11%GBP0.11%-0.05%-0.11%0.08%0.10%0.16%-0.17%JPY0.22%0.07%0.11%0.21%0.21%0.25%-0.05%CAD0.00%-0.12%-0.08%-0.21%-0.00%0.07%-0.27%AUD0.02%-0.14%-0.10%-0.21%0.00%0.07%-0.26%NZD-0.07%-0.21%-0.16%-0.25%-0.07%-0.07%-0.30%CHF0.26%0.11%0.17%0.05%0.27%0.26%0.30% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold is easing on Thursday after hitting its highest level since June 5 earlier in the session. Shortly after the opening, it overcame a 50% level to trade to $4,449.83. The rally stopped short of $4,481.78 and $4,501.24.
The first resistance at $4,481.78 represents 20% down from the all-time high. Classical analysts say this is where the bear market began. Overtaking it could mean the bear market is over, but it will not mean a new bull market is beginning. The 200-day moving average at $4,501.24 could be either resistance or a trigger point for an acceleration to the upside.
More important than the upside targets, in my opinion, is the potential support cluster at $4,195.96 to $4,136.05, which includes the 50-day moving average at $4,146.29.
The market is currently forming a potentially bearish closing price reversal top. We will not know until the close, but if it does, it will be the second this week. This could be a sign that traders are selling rallies.
Daily September Crude Oil Futures WTI near $82 and Brent near $87.70 are both down more than 1% Thursday. OPEC and the IEA both cut demand forecasts this week. Lower crude on a weekly basis takes pressure off headline inflation, and that supports the case for a Fed hold in September.
The oil decline helps gold at the margin. It does not close the inflation door. Crude is still well above the levels it traded before the Hormuz conflict started. The strait remains restricted. Houthi attacks continue on alternative shipping routes. Fed officials have said repeatedly that they are watching energy costs, and oil staying elevated even on a down day keeps that part of the argument from going away completely.
Gold is getting a friendlier inflation backdrop from cheaper crude. It is not getting an all-clear signal.
What to Watch Gold got two soft inflation reports, lower yields and falling hike odds this week and could not sustain a move above $4,400. The market ran hard from last week’s payrolls miss through Wednesday’s CPI high and Thursday proved the buyers who drove that move are taking profits. Retail sales Friday is the last major data point of the week. A weak number reinforces the case for a Fed hold and gives gold another chance to stabilize. The dollar near a two-week high is the obstacle that has to give way before the next leg higher has room.
A second closing price reversal top this week would confirm the pattern of sellers showing up at resistance. Gold reached $4,449.83 Thursday and stalled well short of the $4,481 level where the bear market began and the 200-day moving average just above it. On the downside, the support cluster near the 50-day moving average at $4,146 is where buyers need to show up if the correction extends beyond profit-taking. The range between those zones is wide, and the close Thursday will tell you which side has control heading into Friday.
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