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NZD/USD Price Forecast: At fresh yearly lows with bears pushing against 0.5600 

Gold struggles as rising US Treasury yields outweigh dovish Fed repricing

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Silver price today: Silver broadly unchanged, according to FXStreet data

  The Euro managed to break below the support trend at 1.1390. If prices hold below the daily close of 1.1410, more of a drop is likely towards the 1.1200-50 zone.

  USDJPY added more value above 157.85 as the drop pressure still overshadows the market as traders expect an intervention from the Bank of Japan. Intraday prices show resistances at 159.00 and 160.00, whilst a drop wave could hit the market toward 156.40 and 153.90.

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Summary:

GBP/USD has risen over 0.3% in the last four sessions, a marginal, but significant gain in a market dominated by strong US dollar fundamentals The British pound recently made a strong move against the US dollar, climbing over 0.3% in the last four sessions and briefly getting above 1.3300 for GBP/USD, a one-week high. This bounce comes after a sharp fall, dropping from nearly 1.36 in late August to around 1.3200-1.3210 by late September.

Market participants are now watching to see if this climb means a real shift in the trend or just a short break before prices fall again.

What Is Supporting GBP/USD Recovery? A few things are helping GBP/USD bounce back. For one, the US dollar is weaker. Federal Reserve official Williams, for example, hinted he’d only back one more 0.25% rate hike. That news quickly dropped the market’s expected chance of an October increase, going from about 70% to 45% in a single day.

Cooler US inflation numbers, especially the PCE figures, also helped calm expectations for a Fed hike in October.

Meanwhile, revised UK second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data showed growth was stronger than first thought, rising to 0.5% instead of the earlier 0.4%.

This better growth figure has raised expectations of further hikes from Bank of England (BoE). Money markets now see an 80% or higher chance of a 25-basis-point rate increase at the BoE’s November 5th meeting, quite a jump from what was expected before.

Near-Term Risks Remain Even with these recent gains, technical and fundamental indicators suggest it’s wise to be careful, as big challenges are still out there. The Federal Reserve has already moved rates to 3.75%-4.00% and keeps hinting it’s prepared to tighten more if inflation doesn’t cool down. US 10-year yields, trading at levels not seen since 2007, continue to bolster the dollar.

Upcoming economic data like US non-farm payrolls and inflation reports could quickly revive expectations of an October Fed hike. That could easily wipe out sterling’s recent gains.

Higher oil prices, stemming from stalled talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, also make further Fed tightening seem more likely. This has boosted demand for the dollar as a safe haven. If those talks don’t succeed, oil prices might climb even higher, worsening inflation worries and likely strengthening the dollar.

Technically, the GBP/USD pair hasn’t held above 1.3300. While support near 1.3200 has held up so far, a clear break below that could send it dropping toward 1.3140 or maybe 1.3100. On the other hand, if it moves and holds above the 1.3350-1.3400 range, that’d build a stronger case for a bigger recovery.

How likely is a Bank of England rate increase in November?

Markets currently assign an 80% or higher probability to a 25-basis-point hike at the 5 November meeting following the GDP revision.

What’s the biggest risk to the pound gaining more ground?

The pound’s recent strength against the dollar could easily reverse. That would happen if a strong US jobs or inflation report makes a late-October Fed hike look very probable once more.

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EUR/USD eyes 1.12 as JPY pairs bounce - How far can they rally? Can USD/JPY break 159?

The Pound-Dollar could extend gains if US manufacturing disappoints, although stronger factory activity may offer the Greenback some support. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate raced higher on Wednesday, amid a notable correction in the 'Greenback' following the latest US inflation data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3293. Up roughly 0.5% from Wednesday’s opening levels.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.323229 (-0.24%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.130769 (-0.18%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.2619 (+0.45%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) suffered a sizable selloff on Wednesday, as markets reacted to the latest core PCE price index.

The Federal Reserve's preferred indicator for inflation fell short of expectations in August, printing at 3% against the 3.3% forecast, while July's index was also revised down from 3.3% to 3%.

The data weigh heavily on USD exchange rates as it caused a notable repricing of Fed rate expectations, with CME's FedWatch tool suggesting he odds of an October hike fell to 37%, down from over 70% earlier in the week.

The lacklustre inflation data was enough to overshadow the latest US GDP figures, despite growth being revised notably higher in the second quarter.

The Pound (GBP) strengthened against the majority of its peers on Wednesday, after the UK’s own second-quarter GDP figures came in ahead of initial estimates.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed quarterly economic growth was revised up to 0.5%, compared with the previous estimate of 0.4%.

The stronger-than-expected performance offered fresh encouragement to GBP investors, with evidence of greater economic resilience potentially strengthening expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will finally restart its hiking cycle following its November policy meeting.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Robust US Manufacturing PMI to Lift the 'Greenback'? Looking ahead to Thursday's session, the next catalyst of movement for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will likely be the publication of the latest ISM manufacturing PMI.

If September's index points to further expansion in the US factory sector, it may offer fresh support to the US Dollar.

However, any movement in the US Dollar may ultimately be limited on Thursday as USD investors brace for Friday's more influential non-farm payroll data.

Meanwhile, with the UK economic calendar growing sparse in the second half of the week, Sterling may lack a strong domestic catalyst and trade largely in line with broader market trends.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

EUR/USD fell to 1.1328 on Thursday. Support for the US currency is being generated by a sharp rise in US Treasury yields amid fears that inflation, driven by expensive energy, will require a tougher Federal Reserve policy.

The yield on 10-year bonds is holding around 5.3%, while 30-year bonds are around 5.64%. Both are at their highest levels since 2002, broadening the dollar’s appeal.

At the same time, oil prices remain high: negotiations between the United States and Iran have yet to yield noticeable progress, despite signs of a recovery in Middle Eastern supplies. This leaves elevated inflation risks firmly in place.

PCE data released on Wednesday came in softer than expected. The headline price index rose 0.3% month-on-month in August against a forecast of 0.4%, while core PCE rose 0.2% against an expected 0.3%. Following the release, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October dropped to approximately 38% from 51%.

Market focus now shifts to Thursday’s weekly jobless claims and Friday’s September US labour market report.

Technical Analysis

On the H4 chart, EUR/USD continues to move within a downward structure. The market ended another decline wave around 1.1313 following a corrective rise to 1.1379. The subsequent momentum returned quotes to 1.1330, with current consolidation forming below this resistance. The price remains inside the downward channel and noticeably below the moving average, so the main direction for the coming day remains downward. The immediate target is 1.1300, and securing below this level would open up space towards 1.1290–1.1283. The 1.1355 level is the first significant resistance; a return above it could delay the bearish scenario and lead to a retest of 1.1379.

The MACD remains below its zero line, confirming continued bearish momentum. At the same time, the shrinking negative histogram indicates a slowdown in the decline, suggesting that the market may form an additional correction or consolidation before continuing its move.

On H1, the structure confirms continued selling pressure. After the wave ended at 1.1330, the market moved into a narrow range, but recovery attempts remain limited. The Stochastic oscillator sits below the 50 level and is turning downwards, indicating that short-term momentum towards the oversold zone may continue. While EUR/USD trades below 1.1330–1.1355, the continuation of the fifth downward wave towards 1.1300 and then 1.1290 remains the priority scenario. An additional confirmation is the sequence of declining local highs and lows, which retains a bearish structure.

Conclusion EUR/USD has fallen to new lows as surging US Treasury yields, driven by inflation concerns linked to expensive energy, continue to bolster the dollar. While softer-than-expected PCE data has reduced October rate hike odds to 38%, the broader inflation picture and stalled US-Iran talks keep risks tilted towards further Fed tightening. Technically, the pair remains firmly bearish, with the next targets at 1.1300 and 1.1290–1.1283. A recovery above 1.1355 would be needed to delay the bearish scenario, though the prevailing structure of lower highs and lows suggests the sell-off is not yet over. Friday’s US jobs report will be the key catalyst for the next directional move.

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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Downside pressure might intensify below 1.1300

TL;DR: Gold’s rebound from 4,110.50 nearly tested the 4,113.82 Fibonacci projection to the tick, preserving the corrective interpretation of the decline from 4,697.07, but the 10-year Treasury yield stayed pinned near 5.30% despite softer PCE inflation—leaving 4,234.68 and 4,334.57 as the two resistance levels bulls still need to clear.

Why This Matters Gold held the level that mattered, but the bond market refused to provide confirmation. A near-exact test of a key Fibonacci projection is technically significant, but it only tells half the story when the macro backdrop that should accompany a genuine reversal—falling long-term yields—hasn’t shown up yet. That gap between a clean technical bounce and an incomplete macro confirmation is the central tension shaping Gold’s next move, and it’s why “support held” and “bulls are back in control” remain two different claims.

Softer PCE Delays the Fed Debate, but Does Not End It August PCE inflation came in softer than expected, with core PCE rising 0.2% m/m against 0.3% forecast and headline PCE increasing 0.3% against 0.4% expected. That pushed expectations for another Fed hike away from October and further toward December. The annual readings also came in below pre-release forecasts, although benchmark revisions contributed to the size of those misses.

The release reinforced New York Fed President John Williams’ message at the University at Buffalo on September 29 that, following September’s hike, there was “no need for urgency” and time remained to gather more information. Williams nevertheless said another increase could still be appropriate later this year if the economy develops broadly as expected.

But the broader Fed message was not uniformly dovish. Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook said at a Richmond Fed conference in Asheville, North Carolina, on September 30 that inflation had been “too high for too long.” Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, speaking the same day at a Council on Foreign Relations event in New York, said softer PCE had not materially changed his view that inflation remained too high.

The result is a Fed debate increasingly centered on timing rather than whether inflation has been defeated.

The Bond Market Is the Missing Confirmation For Gold, the more important signal came from Treasuries. Despite the softer inflation numbers and reduced conviction in an October hike, the 10-year Treasury yield remained around the 5.30% area. That disconnect matters. Softer inflation normally eases the rates channel facing non-yielding Gold, but this time the long end did not follow the front-end repricing lower.

The implication is that markets are distinguishing between a less urgent Fed and genuinely easier long-term financial conditions. Strong consumer demand is one reason the PCE report was not cleanly dovish: personal spending surged 0.9% m/m and real PCE rose 0.6%, even as real disposable income was flat. The inflation surprise weakened the case for an immediate hike, but the activity data did not point to a sharp slowdown.

That leaves Gold facing an uncomfortable combination: Fed timing has become less hawkish, but the yield backdrop remains restrictive. This helps explain why the rebound from 4,110.50 has so far been restrained rather than explosive.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold 4,113 Support Passed an Important Test Technically, Gold did what bulls needed at the first major downside objective. The decline from 4,697.07 tested the 61.8% projection of the 4,697.07 to 4,234.68 decline, measured from 4,399.58. That projection sits at 4,113.82. The actual low was 4,110.50.

That near-exact test is significant because it preserves the preferred interpretation that the decline from 4,697.07 can still be treated as a corrective leg within a larger structure, rather than confirmation that a fresh impulsive selloff is already underway. Momentum is also stabilizing: on the four-hour chart, RSI has recovered from deeply oversold conditions toward neutral territory around 48, while MACD has turned higher from a deeply negative reading, though it remains below zero. That combination is consistent with bottoming pressure, but not yet with a confirmed bullish reversal.

First Hurdle: 4,235 Must Break The first test is the 4,234.68 resistance area. This was previously support and now acts as resistance. It is reinforced by the four-hour 55 EMA near 4,236.86, creating a tight technical cluster around 4,235. A firm break above this zone would be the first convincing evidence that 4,110.50 has formed a meaningful short-term bottom. Until then, the current recovery can still be treated as a relief bounce inside the decline from 4,697.07—a distinction that matters because Gold has already produced several rebounds during the broader fall without changing the underlying structure.

Second Hurdle: 4,335 Is the Bigger Reversal Test Even a break above 4,235 would not complete the bull case. The more important resistance lies at 4,334.57, the 38.2% retracement of the entire 4,697.07 to 4,110.50 decline. The daily 55 EMA around 4,313.94 sits just below it, creating a broader 4,314–4,335 resistance zone. A sustained break through that region would carry considerably more technical weight—it would argue that the whole decline from 4,697.07 may have completed and shift attention back toward higher resistance levels.

The hierarchy is therefore straightforward:

Above 4,235, short-term bottoming becomes credible. Above 4,335, the case that the full corrective decline has ended becomes substantially stronger. Gold has achieved neither yet.

A Break of 4,110 Would Reopen 3,937–3,942 The downside structure is equally clear. A renewed break below 4,110.50 would invalidate the immediate stabilization case and expose the 100% projection at 3,937.19. That level sits almost directly alongside the previous 3,942.43 low, creating a strong technical support cluster around 3,937–3,942. A move into that region would do more than simply extend the current pullback—it would raise the probability that the broader decline from the 5,598.75 high is still extending, rather than that the move from 4,697.07 represents a self-contained correction. That makes 4,110.50 an important dividing line for the current setup.

ISM and NFP Will Test Whether Yields Finally Follow the Data The next catalysts sit directly on the fault line between the two technical paths. A firm ISM reading, followed by a stronger-than-expected NFP report, would reinforce the resilience side of the US story. If that pushes Treasury yields higher again and revives October or broader Fed-tightening expectations, Gold’s rebound could struggle below 4,235 and turn back toward 4,110.50.

Conversely, softer activity or labor data would matter most if the 10-year yield finally rolls over. That would provide the macro confirmation missing from Wednesday’s PCE reaction and give Gold a more credible route through 4,234.68, with 4,334.57 then becoming the larger reversal test. For Gold, therefore, the next signal may come less from whether ISM or NFP beat or miss in isolation than from how Treasury yields react to those numbers.

Support Held, but Bulls Still Need Confirmation Gold has passed one meaningful technical test. The 4,113 projection held almost to the tick, momentum has begun to stabilize and the preferred corrective interpretation remains intact. But “support held” and “bulls are back in control” remain two different claims. The first threshold is 4,235. The second is 4,335. Until those levels give way, the rebound from 4,110.50 remains a recovery inside a structure that has not yet turned decisively bullish. And with long-term Treasury yields still elevated despite softer PCE, the macro confirmation for that reversal is still missing.

Key Takeaways Gold’s low at 4,110.50 nearly matched the 4,113.82 Fibonacci projection, preserving the view that the decline from 4,697.07 is corrective rather than a fresh impulsive selloff. Despite softer August PCE, the 10-year Treasury yield held near 5.30%, denying Gold the macro confirmation that typically accompanies a genuine reversal. The Fed debate has shifted to timing rather than direction, with Williams striking a patient tone while Cook and Kashkari pushed back against declaring inflation defeated. Bulls need a break above 4,234.68 for short-term bottoming to become credible, and above 4,334.57 for the full corrective decline to be considered over. A break below 4,110.50 would expose the 3,937–3,942 support cluster and raise the risk that the broader decline from 5,598.75 is still extending.

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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Declines to near 1.3250 as bearish bias persists below 100-day moving average

The Pound-Dollar rate could extend gains if US manufacturing disappoints, although stronger factory activity may offer the Greenback some support. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate raced higher on Wednesday, amid a notable correction in the 'Greenback' following the latest US inflation data.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3293. Up roughly 0.5% from Wednesday’s opening levels.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.328455 (+0.41%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.135765 (+0.15%)

Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 156.87825 (-0.34%)

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) suffered a sizable selloff on Wednesday, as markets reacted to the latest core PCE price index.

The Federal Reserve's preferred indicator for inflation fell short of expectations in August, printing at 3% against the 3.3% forecast, while July's index was also revised down from 3.3% to 3%.

The data weigh heavily on USD exchange rates as it caused a notable repricing of Fed rate expectations, with CME's FedWatch tool suggesting he odds of an October hike fell to 37%, down from over 70% earlier in the week.

The lacklustre inflation data was enough to overshadow the latest US GDP figures, despite growth being revised notably higher in the second quarter.

The Pound (GBP) strengthened against the majority of its peers on Wednesday, after the UK’s own second-quarter GDP figures came in ahead of initial estimates.

Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed quarterly economic growth was revised up to 0.5%, compared with the previous estimate of 0.4%.

The stronger-than-expected performance offered fresh encouragement to GBP investors, with evidence of greater economic resilience potentially strengthening expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will finally restart its hiking cycle following its November policy meeting.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Robust US Manufacturing PMI to Lift the 'Greenback'? Looking ahead to Thursday's session, the next catalyst of movement for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will likely be the publication of the latest ISM manufacturing PMI.

If September's index points to further expansion in the US factory sector, it may offer fresh support to the US Dollar.

However, any movement in the US Dollar may ultimately be limited on Thursday as USD investors brace for Friday's more influential non-farm payroll data.

Meanwhile, with the UK economic calendar growing sparse in the second half of the week, Sterling may lack a strong domestic catalyst and trade largely in line with broader market trends.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

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Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds above $61.00 amid easing Fed rate hike expectations

Hello fellow traders/ Silver ($XAGUSD) has recently moved lower as part of the corrective cycle that started from the August high at 71.20. The current price action is giving us an interesting Elliott Wave structure, which we will examine in this analysis.

Before looking at the current market setup, let’s briefly review the Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern and how it can help us identify potential areas where a correction may reach completion.

Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A  or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and  ideal retracements.

XAGUSD Elliott Wave 4  Hour  Chart 09.24.2026 Silver is showing a corrective cycle from the August 28 peak, with the price action currently developing as an Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. The initial decline from the peak unfolded in five waves, forming wave ((a)), followed by a three-wave corrective bounce in wave ((b)). This structure supports the view that the cycle is taking the form of an Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern, which is not yet complete.

Our preferred count suggests that Silver is now developing the final wave ((c)) lower. If the structure continues as expected, wave ((c)) should unfold in five waves and eventually reach the Equal Legs area at 60.41–58.53, where the correction could potentially find support.

Official trading strategy on How to trade 3, 7, or 11 swing and equal leg is explained in details in Educational Video, available for members viewing inside the membership area.

XAGUSD Elliott Wave 4  Hour  Chart 09.29.2026 Silver declined as expected and reached the extreme zone at 60.41–58.53. The commodity has already produced a short-term bounce from the Equal Legs area. However, so far, we can only count three waves within the ((c)) leg, suggesting that the cycle remains incomplete.  The preferred view still suggests that the cycle is unfolding as an Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. Therefore, we could potentially see at least one more low to complete the five-wave structure within the ((c)) leg.

For now, we will continue to monitor the internal structure and the reaction from the current area.

Keep in mind that the market is dynamic, and the outlook may have changed in the meantime. Our member Chat Rooms are open 24 hours a day, Monday through Friday, on trading days, providing ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members can ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time during trading days.

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ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.

Hello, fellow traders. In this technical article, we’ll take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Gold (XAUUSD), recently published in the members’ area of our website.

As our members know, GOLD has been declining within the cycle that started from the August peak at 4698.17. Price has now reached the extreme zone and is already showing a reaction from the area.In the following sections, we will walk through the setup and show how we forecasted the path.

XAUUSD Elliott Wave 4  Hour  Chart 09.24.2026 XAUUSD is forming a three-wave pattern from the recent August peak at 4698.17. At the moment, the structure of the pullback appears incomplete, suggesting that further downside could be seen before the next bounce develops. As our members know, the reversal zone is identified by measuring the Equal Legs area using the Fibonacci Extension tool, measuring A relative to B. The ideal target area comes in at 4112.6–4014.2.

From this zone, we expect buyers to step in and take control, potentially driving the price higher in at least a three-wave bounce.

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Reminder : Our member chat rooms are open 24/7 and provide ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members are encouraged to ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time. You can learn more about Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page

XAUUSD Elliott Wave 4  Hour  Chart 09.24.2026 GOLD declined as expected and reached the extreme zone at 4112.6–4014.2. The commodity found buyers right at the Equal Legs area, producing a reaction from the zone. At this stage, it is still too early to determine with high confidence whether the cycle has already been completed. The preferred view suggests that the cycle is taking the form of an Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern, meaning we could potentially see another low to complete five waves within the red C leg. For now, we will continue monitoring the structure and the reaction from the current area.

Keep in mind that the market is dynamic, and the outlook may have changed in the meantime. Our member Chat Rooms are open 24 hours a day, Monday through Friday, on trading days, providing ongoing expert guidance on market trends and Elliott Wave analysis. Members can ask questions about market structure and technical setups at any time during trading days.

Elliott Wave Forecasthttps://elliottwave-forecast.com

ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.

Gold falls to near $4,150 as higher Treasury yields, oil prices outweigh softer PCE inflation

USD/JPY Price Forecast: 50-day SMA caps recovery near 158.00

Gold prices put in a sizable drop on Monday and this comes after the metal had previously held up fairly well despite Treasury yields surging along the curve over the past couple of weeks. While last week saw gold hold above the FOMC low, that price was taken out aggressively to start this week and, so far, sellers have swatted down rallies below that price.