The Euro-Dollar is starting to look undervalued near 1.1570, with foreign exchange analysts at ING estimating short-term fair value at 1.1600-1.1650 and retaining a bullish bias. Latest — Exchange Rates:
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.157032 (+0.32%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.35335 (+0.32%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 159.32142 (-0.07%)
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate ended the week around 1.1570 after pushing back towards the upper end of its recent range, but ING thinks the pair still looks slightly cheap.
The bank's short-term fair-value model puts EUR/USD in the 1.1600-1.1650 area, roughly 30-80 pips above Friday's close.
“Our models suggest EUR/USD’s short-term fair value sits in the 1.160-1.1650 area,” ING strategist Francesco Pesole said.
The main driver is the move in relative interest rates, with ING pointing to around 10 basis points of tightening in two-year swap spreads.
That is enough to keep the bank leaning bullish even after EUR/USD's recovery from July lows.
Image: EUR/USD performance over last week EUR/USD recovered sharply late in the week, reaching 1.1584 before closing around 1.1570 and near the upper end of its five-day range.
There is a catch.
ING is not yet convinced the Euro has the catalyst required to break decisively through 1.1600.
“That supports our positive bias on EUR/USD, even though we aren’t convinced a break above 1.160 is on the cards in the coming days unless communication from the Fed starts to surprise on the dovish side,” Pesole said.
That puts Federal Reserve communication back at the centre of the trade.
ING believes market conviction around further Fed tightening remains too strong and continues to favour Dollar downside, but says Fedspeak now offers the clearest route to a larger FX move.
The bank is particularly watching whether more centrist Fed officials begin to soften their hawkish tone ahead of the late-August Jackson Hole Symposium.
Near-Term EUR/USD Outlook: 1.1500 Support Is Doing Its Job The other side of ING's argument is increasingly visible on the chart.
EUR/USD fell as low as 1.1325 during the past three months, but the late-July recovery has carried the pair back above 1.15 and towards 1.16.
Image: Euro to Dollar exchange rate's 3-month chart EUR/USD has rebounded strongly from its July lows and is trading above its 20-day and 50-day moving averages, with 1.1600 now the next obvious hurdle.
“For now, EUR/USD bulls like us may be content with strengthening technical support around 1.1500,” ING said.
That level matters because it changes the character of the recent price action.
A few weeks ago, EUR/USD was struggling to hold the mid-1.13s. It is now testing the upper half of the 1.15 handle while ING's fair-value model argues the pair should be somewhat higher still.
This is not a call for an immediate breakout.
ING's view is more measured: 1.1500 is becoming a firmer floor, 1.1600 is the near-term hurdle, and a more dovish turn in Fed communication may be needed before the Euro can make the next leg higher.
On that basis, EUR/USD is not dramatically mispriced.
It is simply starting to look cheap.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
This weekly gold outlook was written late in the day on Friday. At the time of writing, the metal was still some 0.9% higher on the week, adding modestly to the sharp 7.4% gains from the week before. Helped by another batch of softer US economic data, the precious metal found support as the dollar weakened broadly. Looking ahead, there is not much in the way of economic data in the week ahead. A lot will now depend on the direction of global bond yields and oil prices. Bond yields pushed higher again on Friday as the consolidation near the upper end of the recent range continued, mirroring the price action of oil prices, which repeatedly found support on the dips.
Softer US data, but yields remain firm Gold’s fundamental backdrop may have improved in recent weeks, but the metal still faces a significant obstacle from elevated bond yields.
Last week’s weak payrolls report was followed by broadly in-line inflation, softer retail sales and weaker consumer sentiment. Taken together, the data suggest that US economic momentum may be losing some steam, strengthening expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave rates unchanged in September.
The dollar has weakened, which would normally provide support for gold. Yet Treasury yields have remained stubbornly high. That is becoming an increasingly important risk, not only for gold and other low-yielding assets, but for equities as well.
Oil remains the key variable Attention is now turning back towards the Middle East and oil prices. There there has been little meaningful progress towards reviving the previous US-Iran agreement. Uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk for global energy markets. This complicates the gold story. Although recent US inflation data have been relatively benign, oil prices rose by roughly 20% in July. If energy prices remain elevated, or worse, rise further, inflation could prove stickier than expected. That would make it harder for the Fed not to tighten its policy and could push both bond yields and the dollar higher — two clear headwinds for gold outlook.
Golf technical analysis During much of this week, gold was testing an important resistance zone around $4,365-$4,455. It was still holding below that zone at the time of writing. The zone is significant because it combines a previous swing low with an area that has changed from support into resistance.
Source: TradingView.com Initial support sits around $4,300-$4,305 on XAUUSD, followed by $4,200. Below there, $4,100-$4,120 is more important, as it marks the base of the recent breakout.
A sustained break above $4,365-$4,455 would strengthen the case for a broader bullish trend. Failure to clear the zone, particularly if the dollar and oil prices strengthen again, would keep the consolidation or bearish argument alive.
In summary Gold remains well placed to benefit from a more dovish Fed, and last week’s rally showed how quickly prices can respond when rate and dollar expectations move in its favour. However, more concerning is the lack of convincing follow-through this week, suggesting that momentum may be fading. Gold may need another run of softer US data — and, crucially, lower Treasury yields — before it can convincingly break above resistance and establish a more durable bullish trend.
Silver price advanced by some 0.39% on Friday, capped by rising US yields, even though US data was softer than expected. XAG/USD trades at $64.70, after bouncing off daily lows of $63.51.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe white metal remains downward biased despite signs of bottoming around the $54.70 area, near the yearly low of $54.77. Momentum is bullish in the short term, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but from a market structure perspective, it remains bearish.
For a bullish continuation, the first resistance for XAG/USD would be the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $68.76. Above, the first key resistance is the 200-day SMA at 71.64, ahead of the $72.00 mark
On the downside, if Silver drops the July 6 high of $63.28, the next support would be the 50-day SMA at $61.35. Below the next stop would be the August 3 low of $56.57, followed by the yearly low of $54.77.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Australian Dollar advanced on Friday after US Retail Sales disappointed investors, increasing speculation that the Federal Reserve might not raise rates, as the economy showed tentative signs of weakness. The AUD/USD trades at 0.7083, up 0.34%
The daily chart shows the AUD/USD is bullish, but buyers remain unable to decisively crack the January 29 high of 0.7094, which could open the door for further upside. Momentum shifted bullish since mid-July, as depicted in the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
From a market structure perspective, the pair has not shifted bullish until buyers regain the June 1 peak at 0.7190. Hence, the first AUD/USD resistance is 0.7100, followed by the latter. On further strength, the next stop is 0.7200.
On the downside, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.7058 is the first support. Once cleared, the 50-day SMA emerges as the next demand zone at 0.6991, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6937.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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The EUR/USD registers gains of over 0.32% as traders face key resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1567, as bulls eye the 1.1600 psychological figure. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1564 after bouncing off daily lows of 1.1526.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe EUR/USD market structure suggests that the downtrend remains intact. The successive lower highs and lower lows have been respected, but since July 30, when the pair reclaimed the 1.1500 area, the risk of a ‘bullish reversal’ has increased.
Although the pair topped around 1.1550-60, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests bullish momentum is building. With that said, the EUR/USD might turn bullish if traders clear key resistance levels.
Upwards, the 200-day SMA at 1.1629 is the next area of interest. Once surpassed, the next cycle high pending is the May 29 high at 1.1685. If those two levels are removed, EUR/USD could be headed toward 1.1700, putting the April 17 high at 1.1849 into play ahead of the 1.1900 area.
On the flip side, if the shared currency drops below 1.1500, a move to the 50-day SMA at 1.1465 is on the cards. The next demand zone would be 1.1400.
EUR/USD Price Chart – Daily
EUR/USD daily chart Euro Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.13%-0.36%1.02%-0.54%-0.28%0.07%0.66%EUR0.13%-0.24%1.11%-0.52%-0.22%0.10%0.69%GBP0.36%0.24%1.29%-0.27%0.02%0.34%0.92%JPY-1.02%-1.11%-1.29%-1.24%-0.95%-0.77%-0.15%CAD0.54%0.52%0.27%1.24%0.29%0.47%1.25%AUD0.28%0.22%-0.02%0.95%-0.29%0.32%0.88%NZD-0.07%-0.10%-0.34%0.77%-0.47%-0.32%0.57%CHF-0.66%-0.69%-0.92%0.15%-1.25%-0.88%-0.57% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The U.S dollar debasement trade is moving back to the centre of global markets and Gold may be its clearest beneficiary.
The Dollar Index has slipped below 100 while Treasury yields remain elevated, Washington finances enormous deficits and traders reassess America’s debt trajectory. For Gold bulls, the convergence is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.
“The debasement trade does not begin when the dollar collapses,” says Lars Hansen, Head of Research at The Gold & Silver Club. “It begins when traders start questioning what each future dollar will actually be worth in real terms.”
Gold has remained resilient despite high U.S borrowing costs. Normally, elevated real yields would pressure bullion. Instead, traders are focusing on fiscal deterioration, currency dilution and policy uncertainty.
“When Gold stays this strong against restrictive financial conditions, the message matters,” Hansen says. “Traders are looking beyond nominal rates and focusing on purchasing power of the currency itself.”
The latest Treasury numbers sharpen that argument. The U.S posted a record $432 billion July budget deficit, taking the fiscal-year shortfall to $1.80 trillion. Even after adjusting for payment-timing distortions, July’s deficit was $333 billion, 18% greater than a year earlier.
Net interest expenses have risen 11% this fiscal year and have officially surpassed both National Defence and Medicare spending. In other words, the U.S government now spends more money just on interest than it does to fund the entire U.S Military or to provide healthcare for seniors.
“The danger is not simply the size of the debt,” Hansen says. “It is the rising cost of carrying it. The more revenue absorbed by interest, the stronger the pressure for lower financing costs.”
That is where fiscal stress can become a currency story and ultimately a Gold story.
Attempts to strengthen the yen have struggled to remove the incentive to borrow cheaply in Japan and deploy capital into higher-yielding dollar assets. The yen has already weakened again towards ¥160 despite recent US-Japan intervention.
“Washington wants lower borrowing costs, strong Treasury demand and currency stability,” Hansen says. “Achieving all three simultaneously is becoming difficult.”
If U.S rates eventually fall while deficits remain enormous, hard assets could become attractive.
Gold carries no sovereign credit risk, cannot be printed to finance deficits and sits outside the banking system’s liability structure.
Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major Gold price trends, documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports. Its proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in Gold and Silver, earning GSC recognition among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike.
“This is where hesitation becomes expensive,” Hansen says.
For traders, the next technical trigger may now be as important as the macro story. A sustained break above $4,400 would reassert the uptrend just as the Dollar Index threatens deeper support below 100. Gold is already trading within striking distance of that threshold.
“If Gold clears $4,400 while the dollar keeps weakening, capital could move very quickly,” Hansen says. “By the time the breakout looks obvious, traders may already be chasing significantly higher prices.”
The ingredients of a major repricing are falling into place: dollar weakness, fiscal deterioration and Gold sitting beneath a potentially decisive breakout.
For traders still on the side-lines, the choice is becoming urgent. Position before the debasement trade becomes consensus. If Gold confirms its next leg higher, today’s prices may soon look like the opportunity traders wish they had taken.
As Hansen concludes: “Markets reward conviction. Hesitation is punished.” The only question now is whether traders participate – or watch the next major Gold rally unfold without them.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
USD/CAD extends its decline farther below 1.4000 on Friday and heads for a third consecutive weekly loss. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3877, at levels last seen in early July.
The recent strength in the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is driven by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness and relatively stronger Canadian economic data, while elevated Oil prices provide underlying support to the commodity-linked Loonie.
Monetary policy expectations remain in focus. In the US, moderating inflation, weaker consumer spending and signs of labour market softness have lowered the chances of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike next month. Across the border, next week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will provide a fresh update on inflation and its possible impact on the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) policy path.
BoC seen prioritising soft core inflation as output gap closes only graduallyAccording to TD Securities, the Bank of Canada is likely to place greater emphasis on the “softer trajectory for core inflation” at its 2 September decision, noting that the limited “passthrough from higher oil prices gives it more scope to continue looking through the energy shock.” The bank adds that the “recent deceleration across core inflation measures also helps to validate the Bank's assessment around excess supply and capacity to absorb stronger growth amid the rebound in Q2 GDP tracking.”
In TD’s view, this backdrop “should allow the Bank of Canada to stick to its recent messaging next month, with a focus on softer underlying inflation and the gradual timeline to close the output gap.”
Technical analysis
From a technical perspective, USD/CAD maintains a steady downtrend, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows since reversing from above 1.4200 in late June. The pair subsequently slipped below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), while the latest leg lower has pushed it beneath the 100-day SMA.
The Relative Strength Index (14) around 29 signals oversold conditions and warns that downside momentum may be stretched even as the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory.
On the downside, immediate support is aligned with the 200-day SMA close to 1.3850, ahead of a more substantial horizontal floor at 1.3700, with a deeper bearish extension exposing the structural level at 1.3542.
On the topside, a recovery attempt would first face resistance at the 100-day SMA at 1.3920, with any stronger rebound likely capped by the higher 50-day SMA at 1.4077 unless sellers lose control of the medium-term trend.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.31%-0.35%-0.08%-0.39%-0.29%-0.59%-0.14%EUR0.31%-0.04%0.22%-0.10%0.02%-0.30%0.17%GBP0.35%0.04%0.28%-0.08%0.06%-0.24%0.22%JPY0.08%-0.22%-0.28%-0.30%-0.21%-0.54%-0.04%CAD0.39%0.10%0.08%0.30%0.10%-0.20%0.26%AUD0.29%-0.02%-0.06%0.21%-0.10%-0.30%0.16%NZD0.59%0.30%0.24%0.54%0.20%0.30%0.48%CHF0.14%-0.17%-0.22%0.04%-0.26%-0.16%-0.48%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The USD/CHF turns negative on the day, snapping a four-day winning streak, yet it remains above 0.8100, suggesting further upside is possible if buyers reclaim key resistance levels. At the time of writing, the pair trades at a 0.12% loss.
USD/CHF Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe ‘bearish flag’ remains in play. Although the pair refreshed a two-day low, closing Friday’s session near the week's highs, it could open the door to a breakout to the upside and a resumption of the uptrend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bullish but has turned flat, suggesting additional sideways trading lies ahead.
If USD/CHF breaks above 0.8150, the next area of interest would be the July 29 high at 0.8207. Once surpassed the next stop is the June 19, 2925 high at 0.8215, followed by the June 4, 2025 peak at 0.8250. Up next is 0.8300.
Downwards, the first support for USD/CHF is the low of the day (LOD) at 0.8103, which opens the path for a move lower to the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8079. The next support level would be the July 30 swing low of 0.8035, ahead of 0.8000.
USD/CHF Price Char – Daily
USD/CHF daily chart
Euro Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.30%-0.33%-0.10%-0.38%-0.28%-0.57%-0.13%EUR0.30%-0.03%0.20%-0.11%0.02%-0.27%0.17%GBP0.33%0.03%0.24%-0.08%0.05%-0.23%0.21%JPY0.10%-0.20%-0.24%-0.28%-0.20%-0.51%-0.03%CAD0.38%0.11%0.08%0.28%0.09%-0.19%0.26%AUD0.28%-0.02%-0.05%0.20%-0.09%-0.29%0.17%NZD0.57%0.27%0.23%0.51%0.19%0.29%0.47%CHF0.13%-0.17%-0.21%0.03%-0.26%-0.17%-0.47%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold Moves Higher As Traders React To U.S. Retail Sales Data
Gold 140826 Daily Chart Gold gains ground as traders focus on U.S. dollar’s pullback. The American currency is under pressure after weak Retail Sales report. The report showed that Retail Sales declined by -0.6% month-over-month in July, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1%. Weaker dollar is bullish for gold and other dollar-denominated commodities.
Interestingly, Treasury yields moved higher despite the disappointing Retail Sales data. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.16% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.70%. Treasury yields gained ground as traders focused on rising oil markets. Rising Treasury yields did not put pressure on gold markets in today’s trading session.
FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 67.4% probability that Fed will leave rates unchanged at the next meeting. The probability of a rate hike continues to decrease, which is bullish for gold markets.
Currently, gold is trying to settle back above the resistance at $4360 – $4380. In case gold manages to settle above the $4380 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the $4480 – $4500 range.
On the support side, a move below the $4300 level will open the way to the test of the support at $4180 – $4200.
Silver Remains Stuck Below The Key Resistance Level At $65.00 – $66.00 Silver 140826 Daily Chart Silver gained some ground as gold/silver ratio remained stuck near the 67.50 level. In case gold/silver ratio settles below 67.50, it will move towards the 66.00 level, which will be bullish for silver.
From the technical point of view, silver continues its attempts to settle above the resistance level at $65.00 – $66.00. Silver has already made several attempts to climb above $66.00, but these attempts yielded no results. If silver moves above the $66.00 level, it will head towards the resistance level at $71.00 – $72.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the support side, a move below the $64.00 level will push silver towards the nearest support level at $61.00 – $62.00.
Platinum Rebounds As Traders Buy The Dip
Platinum 140826 Daily Chart Platinum rebounds after yesterday’s sell-off amid rising demand for precious metals. U.S. dollar’s pullback provided material support to platinum markets. Traders have ignored rising oil prices and higher Treasury yields. Palladium markets are up by +0.8% in today’s trading session, which is bullish for platinum.
Platinum failed to settle below the support level at $1680 – $1700 and is trying to settle back above the $1750 level. In case platinum manages to settle above $1750, it will head towards the resistance level at $1780 – $1800.
On the support side, platinum needs to settle below the support at $1680 – $1700 to have a chance to gain downside momentum in the near term. In this case, platinum will head towards the 50 MA at $1653. If platinum declines below the 50 MA, it will head towards the next support level, which is located in the $1600 – $1620 range.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Gold price registers solid gains of nearly 0.90% on Friday as the US Dollar weakens across the board, following a week that featured softer inflation data, which decreased the chances for a rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The XAU/USD trades at $4,386, still below the $4,400 threshold.
XAU/USD gains as weak US data curbs September Fed hike betsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the American currency against six other currencies, is down 0.4% to 99.57, as investors trimmed Fed-hawkish bets ahead of the September meeting.
US inflation data on the producer and consumer side eased in July. The evolution of the disinflation process, the modest rise in Initial Jobless Claims and the drop in Retail Sales were the reasons that triggered the US Dollar sell-off during the week.
On Friday, Retail Sales snapped a five-month streak of growth, declining 0.6% and missing estimates for a 0.1% expansion. Sales within the Control Group, which are used to calculate consumer spending in the Gross Domestic Product, declined by 0.4% after a 0.4% increase in June, according to the US Commerce Department.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment deteriorated further in August’s preliminary reading, from 55.2 to 51.0. Inflation expectations for one year rose from 4.2% to 4.3%, while those for five years remained steady at 3.3%.
The lack of headlines about the Middle East provided another leg up for Bullion. The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent commented that they will implement unprecedented measures on Iran to pressure the regime. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, though Oil prices had failed to rally sharply.
In the meantime, the fall of US yields is a tailwind for Gold prices. The US 10-year Treasury yield is up 3.5 basis points to 4.684%.
The swaps markets currently assign a 31% probability to a rate hike at the September meeting, down from roughly 55% last week, according to Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalNext week, the US economic docket will feature housing data, the ADP Employment Change 4-week average, jobless claims and Flash PMIs.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold struggles at 100-day SMA, to trade sidewaysFrom a technical perspective, Gold is poised to consolidate around the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,386. Momentum remains bullish, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), but buyers failed to decisively surpass $4,400, opening the door for a pullback.
For a bullish resumption, XAU/USD must climb above $4,400. A breach of it would expose the psychological $4,450, followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,504.
Downwards, the first support is the low of the day (LOD) at $4,311. Below is the $4,300 level, which, if cleared, could exacerbate a move towards the July 6 high at $ 4,202, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,146 and $4,100.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
If you were to solely look at the US Dollar weekly chart you might think that nothing really happened this week, as the currency is working on a gravestone doji-like formation highlighting continued indecision, with sellers seemingly disinterested in pushing a downside break of last week's low. But, really, there were several drivers on the matter from the Wednesday release of CPI and the Thursday release of PPI to go along with the Friday drop of Retail Sales and U of M Consumer Sentiment.
Gold trades at $4,381.70, recovering from mid-year lows but still well below its February high near $5,600. Source: TradingView
Gold has remained resilient despite high U.S borrowing costs. Normally, elevated real yields would pressure bullion. Instead, traders are focusing on fiscal deterioration, currency dilution and policy uncertainty.
“When Gold stays this strong against restrictive financial conditions, the message matters,” Hansen says. “Traders are looking beyond nominal rates and focusing on purchasing power of the currency itself.”
America’s Fiscal Math Is Becoming the Trade
The latest Treasury numbers sharpen that argument. The U.S posted a record $432 billion July budget deficit, taking the fiscal-year shortfall to $1.80 trillion. Even after adjusting for payment-timing distortions, July’s deficit was $333 billion, 18% greater than a year earlier.
Net interest expenses have risen 11% this fiscal year and have officially surpassed both National Defence and Medicare spending. In other words, the U.S government now spends more money just on interest than it does to fund the entire U.S Military or to provide healthcare for seniors.
“The danger is not simply the size of the debt,” Hansen says. “It is the rising cost of carrying it. The more revenue absorbed by interest, the stronger the pressure for lower financing costs.”
That is where fiscal stress can become a currency story and ultimately a Gold story.
If U.S rates eventually fall while deficits remain enormous, hard assets could become attractive.
Gold Is Becoming the Cleanest Expression
Gold carries no sovereign credit risk, cannot be printed to finance deficits and sits outside the banking system’s liability structure.
Over the past 15 years, The Gold & Silver Club has built a reputation as one of the industry’s most accurate forecasters of major Gold price trends, documented across leading financial publications and institutional research reports. Its proprietary models have consistently pinpointed major turning points in Gold and Silver, earning GSC recognition among institutional investors and private wealth clients alike.
“This is where hesitation becomes expensive,” Hansen says.
For traders, the next technical trigger may now be as important as the macro story. A sustained break above $4,400 would reassert the uptrend just as the Dollar Index threatens deeper support below 100. Gold is already trading within striking distance of that threshold.
The Window May Be Closing
“If Gold clears $4,400 while the dollar keeps weakening, capital could move very quickly,” Hansen says. “By the time the breakout looks obvious, traders may already be chasing significantly higher prices.”
The ingredients of a major repricing are falling into place: dollar weakness, fiscal deterioration and Gold sitting beneath a potentially decisive breakout.
For traders still on the side-lines, the choice is becoming urgent. Position before the debasement trade becomes consensus. If Gold confirms its next leg higher, today’s prices may soon look like the opportunity traders wish they had taken.
As Hansen concludes: “Markets reward conviction. Hesitation is punished.” The only question now is whether traders participate – or watch the next major Gold rally unfold without them.
Where are prices heading next? Watch The Commodity Report now, for my latest price forecasts and predictions:
Key Points:EUR/USD moved higher as traders focused on U.S. Retail Sales data. USD/CAD tested new lows as oil prices moved higher. USD/JPY climbed back towards the 159.50 level amid rising Treasury yields.
In this article:EUR/USD
+0.29%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
+0.31%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.37%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
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USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Retreats As Retail Sales Miss Estimates
DXY 140826 4h Chart
U.S. Dollar Index is losing ground as traders focus on the disappointing Retail Sales report. The report indicated that Retail Sales decreased by -0.6% month-over-month in July, compared to analyst forecast of +0.1%.
Traders also had a chance to take a look at the Michigan Consumer Sentiment report. The report showed that Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined from 55.2 in July to 51.0 in August, compared to analyst consensus of 54.5.
The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 99.25 – 99.40 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 99.25 level, it will move towards the next support level, which is located in the 98.60 – 98.75 range.
EUR/USD Tests New Highs As Traders Focus On U.S. Economic Data
EUR/USD 140826 4h Chart
EUR/USD gains ground as traders react to Wholesale Prices report from Germany. The report showed that Wholesale Prices increased by +0.2% month-over-month in July, compared to analyst forecast of +0.4%.
If EUR/USD stays above the 1.1550 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance, which is located in the 1.1600 – 1.1615 range. A successful test of this level will push EUR/USD towards the next resistance at 1.1685 – 1.1700.
GBP/USD Tests Resistance At 1.3550 – 1.3565
GBP/USD 140826 4h Chart
GBP/USD moves higher as traders focus on economic reports from the U.S. Traders bet that weak economic data will force the Fed to be more dovish.
Currently, GBP/USD is trying to settle above the resistance level at 1.3550 – 1.3565. In case GBP/USD manages to settle above the 1.3565 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.3635 – 1.3650 range. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/CAD Tests New Lows As Pullback Continues
USD/CAD 140826 4h Chart
USD/CAD pulled back as traders focused on rising precious metals markets and reacted to the weak Retail Sales report from the U.S. Gold climbed towards the $4400 level, while silver moved back towards the $65.00 level. Other commodity-related currencies were also moving higher in today’s trading session.
USD/CAD settled below the previous support at 1.3920 – 1.3935 and is trying to settle below the 1.3870 level. In case this attempt is successful, USD/CAD will head towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.3825 – 1.3840 range.
USD/JPY Climbs Back Towards The 159.50 Level
USD/JPY 140826 4h Chart
USD/JPY rebounded from session lows and moved back towards the key 159.50 level. Treasury yields are moving higher despite weak Retail Sales data, providing additional support to USD/JPY. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.69%. Treasury yields moved higher as bond traders focused on rising oil prices.
If USD/JPY manages to settle above the resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00, it will head towards the next resistance at 161.50 – 162.00. It remains to be seen whether BoJ is ready to intervene in case USD/JPY climbs above the psychologically important 160.00 level.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) rises by some 0.40% on Friday as a batch of US data supports a Federal Reserve (Fed) dovish stance, with consumer sentiment deteriorating while the disinflation process showed further progress. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3545 after hitting a three-month high of 1.3561 earlier in the day. Read More...
British Pound strengthens against US Dollar as traders price out hawkish Fed betsThe British Pound (GBP) trades 0.35% higher to near 1.3533 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair reflects strength as the US Dollar declines, with traders pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September policy meeting. Read More...
British Pound strengthens to near 1.3500 as Fed rate hike bets easeThe GBP/USD pair gathers strength to near 1.3495 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as cooler-than-expected US consumer and producer price data have limited the Federal Reserve's (Fed) room for further interest rate hikes. Traders will keep an eye on the US July Retail Sales report later on Friday. Read More...
Key Technical Levels and Weekend Positioning A pullback from here could be looking to the 50-week EMA for some type of support, right around the $4,240 level. That’s just above the breakout point from the previous week, and it could be a breakout, pullback, retest type of situation.
To the upside, the $4,600 level looks to be resistance, as it has been in the past, so that might be a difficult barrier.
Heading into the weekend on Friday, it looks like traders aren’t really willing to put a lot of money into the market, at least not yet. And that makes sense because caution is probably the better part of valor here.
Interest rates, the situation in the Middle East, and quite frankly, the questions about the Federal Reserve and whether or not they’ll be able to raise interest rates as quickly as once thought all come into the fray here. Ultimately, gold looks like it’s made a nice bounce, but it may not be ready to just simply go parabolic like it did previously.
Macro Pressures and Support Levels There are also questions now about how the Federal Reserve will react to certain things, and whether or not interest rates are going to rise quickly anymore. At one point, there was the thought that they might get a little bit aggressive. It’s still, I think, a little early to tell, but the latest economic information out of the United States has been that the economy is slowing down a little bit. But really, this has only been in the last few weeks, so we’ll have to wait and see if that actually holds.
As things stand right now, a couple of green candles in a row is a good sign, but we’re a long way from forming another swing high. And one would think that the $70 level above probably has some psychology attached to it as well as market memory from both support and resistance on lower time frames. So we’ll see how that plays out.
Underneath, we have the 50-week EMA, which we are sitting on. We have the $60 level and the $55 level, all potentially offering support.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades on the front foot on Friday but lacks strong follow-through and remains within the narrow range seen this week. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $65 after bouncing from an intraday low of $63.51.
The US Dollar (USD) weakens across the board as the latest batch of US economic data reduces expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike, creating a supportive backdrop for the non-yielding metal.
Meanwhile, Silver also maintains a positive technical bias following its recent recovery from near $55. However, weakening short-term momentum leaves the metal vulnerable to further consolidation.
Technical Analysis: 4-hour chart
XAG/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias as price holds above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) near $63.60 and the longer-term 100- and 200-period SMAs clustered between roughly $60.80 and $59.90. The pair is consolidating just under the recent cycle highs, with the Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 suggesting moderately positive but not overextended momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below zero with a negative line, hinting that upside pressure is firm but losing some steam after the latest rally.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $64.38, followed by the 50-period SMA at $63.60 and a dense structural zone formed by the 38.2% retracement at $62.89 and the 50.0% level at $61.68, which converge with the 61.8% retracement at $60.47 and the 100-period SMA at $60.84.
Deeper setbacks would expose the 78.6% retracement at $58.76 and the 200-period SMA near $59.92 as a broader bullish base, while on the topside, the recent anchor around $66.80 acts as the next significant resistance level that bulls would need to clear to extend the uptrend.
Technical Analysis: Daily chart
XAG/USD holds above the 50-day SMA at $61.36 and has also reclaimed the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at $63.10 as support, which together suggests a constructive near-term bias despite the broader downtrend defined by the 100-day SMA at $68.77 and the 200-day SMA at $71.64 overhead.
A firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 and a positive Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line with a still-elevated histogram hint that bullish momentum is intact while price remains under these longer-term averages.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $68.12, closely followed by the 100-day SMA at $68.77, while the 200-day SMA at $71.64 and the 50% retracement at $72.18 form a higher cap ahead of the 61.8% and 78.6% retracements at $76.24 and $82.02, respectively.
On the downside, immediate support appears at the 23.6% retracement at $63.10, with the 50-day SMA at $61.36 protecting the recent advance; a deeper pullback would expose the structural floor around the $54.99 cycle low.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
EUR/GBP has traded in a tight range around the mid-0.8500s on Friday, little changed on the day. The latest Eurozone figures came in close to forecasts, and they did nothing to push the pair out of the range it has held all week.
Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 0.4% in the second quarter, matching expectations, with the annual rate at 1%. Employment rose 0.1% on the quarter, also as forecasted. Nothing in the release surprised, and the numbers are backward-looking, so the reaction was slight.
The pair has been going sideways for several sessions with the Euro (EUR) steadying after an earlier run of losses. United Kingdom (UK) data earlier in the week also landed close to forecasts, which left the Pound (GBP) without a clear lead of its own. With both sides matching expectations, little has separated them.
The Middle East war keeps a hand on energy prices, and through them on the inflation picture the European Central Bank (ECB) is weighing. Until that situation gets clearer, traders have little reason to commit to a direction.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8548. The cross is hovering just under a cluster of nearby resistance with the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8557 capping the topside together with horizontal barriers at 0.8549 and 0.8550. Price holds marginally above the 20-period SMA at 0.8545, which, alongside the latest relative strength index (RSI) reading near 49, suggests a consolidative, range-bound bias rather than a clear directional move.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-period SMA and horizontal level around 0.8545, ahead of a lower floor at 0.8541. On the topside, EUR/GBP would need to reclaim the nearby resistances at 0.8549 and 0.8550 to challenge the 100-period SMA at 0.8557, a break above which would be needed to re-open a more constructive short-term outlook.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report EUR/USD trading in the mid-1.15s with modest gains versus the US Dollar (USD), supported by euro area Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a return to trade surplus. Recovering yield spreads underpin the Euro (EUR), with their narrow fair value estimate at 1.1641, above spot. Short-term technicals are described as bullish, with support near 1.1500 and resistance around 1.1580 and the 200-day moving average.
Fundamentals and technicals align higher"The EUR is entering Friday’s NA session with a 0.2% gain vs. the USD, pushing into the mid-1.15s while also underperforming most of the G10 currencies in an environment of broad-based USD weakness."
"The second euro area Q2 GDP release was in line with expectations, printing 0.4% Q/Q to deliver a 1.0% Y/Y pace of growth. The trade balance returned to a surplus in June, ending a short-lived deficit that emerged from March to May."
"Yield spreads are offering fundamental support and extending their latest recovery with a push through the mid-July high to reach levels last seen in mid-May. Our narrow fair value estimate based solely on the 2Y Germany-US yield spread has climbed to a fresh high of 1.1641, offering upside relative to spot."
"We see scope for additional sentiment and positioning-related gains, given that the options market continues to fade its premium for protection against EUR weakness while bearish CFTC data highlight vulnerability given the fundamental improvement in spreads."
"Bullish – the RSI is back above 60, suggesting renewed bullish momentum. The recent consolidation range has offered support at 1.1500 and resistance closer to 1.1580. We see broader support at the 50 day MA (1.1466), and additional resistance around the 200 day MA (1.1630). "
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices recovered in the first half of Friday’s session after yesterday’s decline, helped by another batch of softer US economic data. The rebound could lose momentum however as oil prices pushed higher ahead of the weekend. That leaves gold at an interesting juncture. The metal surged last week after spending several weeks consolidating around the $4,000 level, prompting the obvious question: was the move the beginning of a fresh uptrend, or simply a powerful rebound within a broader period of consolidation or a bear trend? So far this week, we have seen a bit more upside in a choppy trade. For now, I remain cautious about calling the start of another major leg higher.
Gold forecast: Softer US data hasn’t weighed on bond yields The fundamental backdrop became somewhat more supportive for gold in the last few weeks. Last week’s disappointing payrolls figures were followed this week by broadly in-line inflation data, weaker retail sales and softer consumer sentiment. Taken together, those releases suggest that momentum in the US economy may be fading. That, in turn, has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve could leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting.
While the dollar has weakened, bond yields have remained elevated, however. This is a major source of market risk which is now becoming increasingly difficult to ignore – not just for gold and other zero and low yielding assets, but for stock markets, too.
Oil is once again the market’s biggest variable With this week’s data out of the way, the focus remains fully the Middle East and the outlook for crude. Oil prices fell on Thursday, offering some relief, but they have since rebounded. There has been little meaningful progress towards reviving the previous US-Iran agreement, while uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continues to represent a significant threat to global energy markets. Comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said Washington would pursue unprecedented measures against Iran as part of its maximum-pressure campaign, have certainly not helped.
This is where the recent gold rally becomes more complicated. While CPI was weaker, there was roughly a 20% gain in oil prices in July. If oil prices remain elevated, there is a clear risk that inflation could re-accelerate. Higher energy prices would make it harder for the Fed to ease policy, while potentially pushing bond yields and the dollar higher — both of which would represent headwinds for gold.
Gold needs to clear a major resistance zone From a technical analysis perspective, gold now faces an important test here.
Source: TradingView.com Resistance is concentrated around the $4,365-$4,455 region. The metal has tested this area several times this week but has so far failed to break decisively above it. The zone is particularly significant because it brings together a previous swing low and an area that has shifted from support to resistance.
On the downside, initial support is located around $4,300-$4,305, followed by $4,200. Below that, the more important level sits around $4,100-$4,120, close to the base of last week’s breakout.
A sustained break above the $4,365-$4,455 resistance area would strengthen the case that the latest rally represents more than a temporary rebound. Failure to clear it, particularly alongside renewed strength in the dollar and oil, would leave the broader consolidation argument intact.
The bullish case still needs confirmation Gold remains one of the clearest potential beneficiaries of a more dovish shift in US monetary policy. Last week’s surge demonstrated just how quickly the metal can respond when dollar and rate expectations move in its favour.
The question is whether buyers can maintain that momentum.
Some consolidation following such a powerful advance was hardly surprising. What is less encouraging is that gold has struggled to generate a more convincing follow-through this week, suggesting that momentum may already be fading. However, it hasn’t sold off immediately either, so there is that too.
More importantly, the market probably needs another run of softer US economic data to turn the latest rebound into a durable bullish trend.
For now, the fundamental picture has improved modestly for gold, but the upside remains vulnerable. Unless Treasury yields weaken, the metal may struggle to sustain a move beyond its current resistance zone.
The EUR/USD pair settled in the 1.1580 area marginally higher in the week, yet unable to find a clear path. The pair holds near its August peak at 1.1581, as demand for the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued amid poor employment figures and steady inflation.
Contributing to the lack of directional strength, the United States (US) and Iran remain in a stalemate, without attacking each other or negotiating a way out.
Middle East crisisAt this point, the key is that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and both Tehran and Washington claim to have it under control. The truth is, traffic through the sea passage is severely disrupted, resulting in higher Oil prices and fears that higher energy prices will soon spill back into inflation.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has threatened Iran with economic isolation “like the world has never seen before,” as the US maintains its demand for Iran to drop all nuclear weapons. Tehran, on the other hand, demands sole control of the Strait of Hormuz, while claiming it will not end its fight in the Middle East until President Donald Trump is out of office in 2029.
Other than that, the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June is set to expire on Sunday. And while some tit-for-tat fire took place and talks were interrupted, there were no major strikes that could fuel concerns. That may come to an end without the MoU in the way.
US data keeps Fed’s hike odds subduedThe macroeconomic calendar was pretty scarce in the past week, with one major exception: the US released the July Consumer Price Index (CPI). Annual inflation, as measured by the change in the CPI, declined to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June, in line with market expectations. In fact, all figures matched expectations, with core annual CPI printing at 2.5%, down from 2.6% posted in June. The figures supported the case for an on-hold Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, limiting USD demand.
Other data showed that Retail Sales were up 5% in July, while the June reading was upwardly revised to 6.8%. Finally, the preliminary estimate of the August Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index contracted to 51 from the 55.2 posted in July. The same report showed inflation expectations on a 1-year perspective ticked higher, to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the 5-year view remained unchanged at 3.3%.
European slow macroeconomic growthThe Euro was unable to attract investors amid the lack of a fresh catalyst. On the one hand, Germany confirmed the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) at 2.8% YoY in July as previously estimated. On the other hand, the Euro area released the second estimate of the Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), reporting quarterly growth at 0.4%.
The figures reaffirmed the market’s conviction that the European Central Bank (ECB) will hike the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) in the upcoming September meeting. At the time of writing, hike odds stand at 90%, according to the ECB Watch tool.
What’s nextWar developments could be at the top of the market movers in the upcoming days, particularly if any party involved decides to resume attacks. And it's not just about the US or Iran. Israel, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Oman are lately making it to the headlines amid rising tensions over the usage of the Strait of Hormuz.
A war escalation that pushes Oil prices further up will likely revive demand for the safe-haven USD, mostly because it would also push up Fed hike odds.
Data-wise, there’s little to take care of: Germany will publish the August ZEW Survey on Economic Sentiment, while ECB President Christine Lagarde will be on the wires on Wednesday, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the Minutes of its July meeting. On Friday, S&P Global, alongside local banks, will publish the preliminary estimates of the August Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for European economies and the US.
EUR/USD Technical Outlook:
From a technical standpoint and according to the daily chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1582. The pair holds is bullish. It advances above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1568 and the 20-day SMA at 1.1482, but remains capped by the 200-day SMA at 1.1630. Momentum stays constructive, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator heading north at 63 and the 14-period Momentum indicator firmly positive above its midline, which suggests buyers still have the upper hand while the 200-day SMA acts as an inmediate ceiling at 1.1630.
In the weekly chart, EUR/USD is more neutral. The pair remains above the 20-, 100- and 200-week SMAs at 1.1569, 1.1321 and 1.1050 respectively, now advancing above the shorter one for the first time since last May. Still, the the Momentum indicator aims modestly lower in negative territory and a the RSI indicator hovers around 51 suggesting only subdued upside pressure rather than an aggressive bullish trend.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 200-day SMA at 1.1630, and a sustained break above this level would open the door to further gains intially towards the 1.1700 mark. On the downside, immediate support emerges at the 1.1560 region, followed by the more relevant 1.1470 price zone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
After posting its largest one-week gain since January in the first week of August, Gold (XAU/USD) extended its rally and touched a fresh two-month peak near $4,450 as markets continued to scale back bets for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September. With the crisis in the Middle East remaining unresolved, however, Gold corrected lower to end the week virtually unchanged. Investors will continue to pay close attention to comments from Fed officials and assess the developments surrounding the United States (US)-Iran conflict in search of the next directional clue.
Gold stretches higher following US inflation printsGold started the week on a bullish note as the negative impact of the disappointing US July employment data on the US Dollar (USD) lingered. After rising more than 1% on Monday, Gold stretched higher in the Asian session on Tuesday but lost its traction in the American session to close the day marginally lower.
US President Donald Trump claimed that the situation with Iran was “going fine” and that they had “total control” of the Strait of Hormuz. Nonetheless, markets largely ignored these comments and Gold struggled to preserve its bullish momentum as CNN reported that only eight vessels crossed the waterway on Tuesday, compared to an average of 120 before the war. Additionally, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) revised its crude Oil price projections, noting that it now expects the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $80.88 in 2026, compared to $76.26 in the previous forecast.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Wednesday that annual inflation, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), declined to 3.4% in July from 3.5% in June. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.1% following the 0.4% decline recorded in the previous month, while the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, increased by 0.2%. All these figures came in line with market expectations and failed to support the USD, helping Gold erase Tuesday’s losses.
The USD came under renewed bearish pressure on Thursday after the BLS announced that the annual producer inflation softened to 4.7% in July from 5.5% in June. Following these data releases, the CME Group FedWatch Tool’s probability of a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate hike in September declined below 35% from about 45% a week earlier.
Analysts at MUFG note that the US Dollar “has continued to trade on a softer footing this week encouraged by the scaling back of Fed rate hike expectations.” They highlight that “the slowdown in private employment and wage growth in recent months alongside limited evidence of higher energy prices spilling over into core inflation since the US-Iran conflict started is providing more leeway for the Fed to leave rates on hold.”
After touching its highest level since early June at $4,450 during the early hours of the American session, Gold lost its traction and closed the day in the red. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted on Thursday that Washington is going to apply measures that have "never been seen" on Iran, and US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the US can sustain its blockade against Iran “indefinitely,” reviving concerns over a prolonged conflict that could force Oil prices to remain elevated.
Heading into the weekend, disappointing Retail Sales data from the US fed weighed on the USD and allowed Gold to end the week in the upper half of its weekly range, near $4,400.
Gold investors await fresh US data and Fed signalsThe US economic calendar will not feature any high-impact data releases in the first half of the week. On Wednesday, the Fed will publish the minutes of the July monetary policy meeting. In case the document highlights that policymakers, who voted for a policy hold, keep an open mind about a rate increase in September, the USD could gather strength with the immediate reaction and cause Gold to correct lower. Conversely, the USD could come under pressure and pave the way for a leg higher in Gold if the publication reveals that policymakers see a high bar for a rate hike. Still, the market reaction could remain limited considering that the meeting took place before the July employment report.
Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack delivered a distinctly hawkish message earlier in the week, with an FXS Speechtracker score of 8.2/10, notably stronger relative to the historical average of 7.3/10. The repeated call to “raise rates right now,” framed against a stable labor market and broad-based inflation amid recent shocks, underscored a clear preference for tighter policy. Similarly, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee called the labor market "stable, without being good" while stressing that "prices and affordability" and inflation are the biggest problems of the US economy, leaning toward prioritizing price stability over labor-market strength.
On Friday, S&P Global will publish the preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for August. In case either of the headline PMIs unexpectedly drop into contraction territory below 50, the immediate reaction is likely to be USD-negative and help XAU/USD push higher. If headline PMIs remain close to July levels, underlying details of the survey, especially around input inflation, could drive Gold’s performance. Any highlights about companies planning to increase prices in anticipation of persistently high energy costs could revive inflation fears. Even if PMI surveys fail to shift Fed expectations in a significant way, the USD could hold its ground in this scenario and weigh on XAU/USD heading into the weekend.
Analysts at OCBC argue that the recent recovery in gold may be losing momentum, noting that “this lack of follow-through suggests the next leg higher may not be straightforward after the recent recovery.” They acknowledge that “the broader macro backdrop remains more constructive as markets pare back Fed hike expectations,” but caution that “risks of near-term consolidation or a moderate pullback cannot be ruled out.” In their view, “a more sustained move higher may require further easing in US yields and the USD, alongside stronger investment demand such as continued ETF accumulation.”
On a more constructive outlook, TD Securities experts expect Gold to “remain near the upper end of its current trading range, which has shifted meaningfully higher since July,” but caution that “it is still too early to call for a breakout toward $5,000/oz.” At the same time, they highlight that the balance of risks could turn more decisively bullish if price pressures remain contained, noting that “if no new inflation pressures materialize, Gold is off to the races and a 5-handle is a very real possibility.”
FXStreet Economic CalendarGold technical analysis: Bulls retreatThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds above 60 but remains below the weekly highs, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact but lacks momentum. Additionally, Gold failed to stabilize above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently located near $4,390, after climbing above this level several times this week, reflecting buyers’ hesitancy.
In case XAU/USD confirms $4,390-$4,400 (100-day SMA, static level) as support, $4,450 (static level) could be seen as an interim hurdle before the critical $4,500-$4,505 region, where the 200-day SMA and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the March-August downtrend align. Once this resistance is cleared, $4,680 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) could be seen as the bullish target.
On the downside, the immediate support area could be spotted at $4,300-$4,295 (static level, Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) before $4,175-$4,150 (20-day SMA, 50-day SMA) and $4,000 (round level, static level).
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold has rallied to its highest level since early June as markets scale back expectations for further Fed rate hikes. He highlights reduced implied tightening in Fed Funds futures, a lower probability of a September hike, and renewed ETF inflows, arguing that Gold retains upside potential even after a brief pullback.
Lower Fed expectations support bullion"The gold price rose at times yesterday to USD 4,450 per troy ounce, its highest level since early June. Since the start of the month, the gold price has risen by up to 10%. This has been driven by a steady reversal of the excessive expectations regarding Fed interest rate hikes."
"At the end of July, Fed Funds futures were still pricing in a year-end Fed rate of 4%. The figure currently stands at 3.86%. This means that 14 basis points of previously expected rate hikes have been priced out of the market."
"As we expect the Fed not to raise interest rates, the gold price therefore still has further upside potential. The fact that this will not happen in a straight line is illustrated by the price fall since yesterday to USD 4,320 per troy ounce. Another positive factor for the price of gold is the renewed buying interest from ETF investors."
"According to Bloomberg data, these investors have been buying gold over the past six trading days. This is the longest period of uninterrupted ETF inflows since April. The inflows total almost 21 tons."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
EUR/USD rallies on Friday, erasing all the losses recorded earlier this week as broad-based weakness in the US Dollar (USD) lifts the Euro (EUR). At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1580 near its highest level since June 17.
The US Dollar weakens as the latest batch of US economic data tempers expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate hike. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.50, down 0.47% on the day.
US Retail Sales fell by 0.6% in July, missing expectations for a 0.1% increase and reversing the previous month’s 0.2% gain. Preliminary data from the University of Michigan (UoM) showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 51.0 in August from 55.2, while the Consumer Expectations Index dropped to 50.6 from 55.4.
The data follows this week’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, which showed that price pressures eased for a second consecutive month, suggesting that the inflationary impact of the recent energy shock is fading.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see around a 70% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September, a sharp shift from earlier expectations of an increase.
However, inflation risks remain tilted to the upside as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz keeps Oil prices elevated. The Michigan survey’s one-year inflation expectation edged up to 4.3% from 4.2%, while the five-year measure held steady at 3.3%.
On the Euro side, markets widely expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates in September, which would mark its second hike this year.
Economists at Commerzbank expect the ECB’s September move to bring the deposit rate to 2.5%, noting that at this level “a level would be reached that Governing Council members view as the upper limit of the neutral interest rate—one that neither stimulates nor slows the economy and leads to medium-term inflation.”
Looking further ahead, Commerzbank argues that “toward the end of 2027, the ECB is likely to lower interest rates again,” as “inflation should gradually decline over the course of the coming year and come close to reaching the inflation target.”
ECB FAQs The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
200-Day EMA and Key Resistance Higher yields typically will work against silver, so I think that’s part of the hesitation here. Furthermore, when we look at the price action, the structure, yes, we did break out of consolidation, but we haven’t made a major swing high, at least not quite yet.
We are hanging around the 200-day EMA, and that 200-day EMA is a major indicator of the trend, be it bullish or bearish. If we could break above $70, that could really get the bulls going.
Right now, though, I think it’s somewhat of a wait-and-see mode. We have seen some weaker economic numbers coming out of the United States that might be part of what’s going on here. But at the end of the day, there is still major headline risk.
NZD/USD rallies to 0.5888, pushing above both EMAs and approaching the 0.5900 resistance level. Source: TradingView
The New Zealand dollar looks very much the same, hanging around the 0.59 level. It looks like it’s struggling a bit over the last hour or so. Pullback wouldn’t be the most shocking thing here either. Quite frankly, though, this one has been in a relatively tight range for a while, so we’re now getting to the top of the consolidation area that we had broken out of. A lot of noisy trading, but New Zealand is highly sensitive to what goes on in the Strait of Hormuz, especially from an energy standpoint, and right now there isn’t much going on, so I think that is one concern.
The RBNZ is expected to raise rates again, but so is the Federal Reserve. It’ll be interesting to see how that plays out. Recently, the US economic numbers have been a little softer. People are starting to temper down the bets on the Fed raising rates, so that’s part of what’s going on here.
TD Securities’ Ryan McKay and Bart Melek note that CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors) net long positioning in Gold is becoming more entrenched as discretionary demand improves. A Fed likely to remain on hold should help keep the precious metal supported at the upper end of its range, while nearby CTA triggers are expected to drive only limited position changes. Silver also stands out for near-term systematic flows, with a break above $66.80/oz likely to attract further buying.
CTA long positioning gains firmer support"CTA net long positioning in gold is becoming more entrenched alongside renewed discretionary appetite."
"A Fed likely to remain on hold amid weaker economic data, and despite upside in energy prices, is likely to see the yellow metal well-supported in the higher range."
"Nearest CTA triggers on both sides are only likely to catalyze minimal shifts in positioning, highlighting a growing support for systematic positions."
"Silver continues to stand out for near-term CTA flows in the precious complex, with prices above $66.80/oz likely to see further buying."
"Furthermore, when looking at pricing simulations, CTAs are likely to add another 2-5% of historic max length under all pricing scenarios into next week."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
RBC's price assumptions put gold at an average $5,250 an ounce in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028, while JPMorgan sees evidence that buyers are returning after the market established support near $4,000.
The Gold price in US Dollars has begun to recover from its mid-year correction, and two bank research frameworks point to a market that is consolidating rather than ending its longer-term advance.
Latest gold market data: XAU/USD traded at $4,351.05 an ounce at 11:56 BST on 14 August 2026, down 0.17% on the day but 7.34% higher over one month.
Gold remained 6.43% lower over three months and 13.48% lower over six months, yet it was still 30.65% above its level a year earlier.
Gold price performance over one month to 14 August 2026.
RBC's Gold Standard comparable tables assume an average $4,732 for 2026, rising to $5,250 in 2027 and $5,500 in 2028.
The bank's long-term assumption is lower at $4,000, giving the forecast a pronounced medium-term peak rather than an indefinitely rising line.
From current spot, the 2027 average is roughly 21% higher and the 2028 assumption about 26% higher.
These are annual averages used in company valuation work, not year-end targets, so gold would not need to finish either year at precisely those levels.
JPMorgan sees buyers returning above $4,000
JPMorgan's volatility research supplies the market mechanism behind the upside case.
“The fundamental view remains on the upside in the long term, as we continue to see strong inflows from central banks with accelerated buying on the dip,” the bank said.
That official-sector thesis has support beyond the research note: World Gold Council data show reported central-bank reserves rising by a net 41 tonnes in May.
JPMorgan also sees a change in investor behaviour after July's narrow trading range.
“As gold prices are finding the floor at 4000 and trading within a tight 5% range over the whole of July, the first signs of buyers winning over sellers are starting to show,” it said.
Retail demand is part of that turn.
“We are starting to see retail investors warming up to gold again,” JPMorgan said, pointing to renewed call-option interest in the GLD exchange-traded fund.
Gold price performance in 2026 to 14 August.
The two banks are not making identical calls.
RBC supplies a multi-year price deck, while JPMorgan identifies positioning and volatility signals around a $4,000 support area.
Together they describe a bullish medium-term case with real drawdown risk: the long-run floor is well below RBC's projected 2028 peak, but central-bank buying and returning investor demand can keep the recovery alive before that normalisation arrives.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
If traders decide to aggressively take offers, the market has room to run to 50% resistance at $4416.82, followed by $4481.78, the new main top at $4493.83 and the 200-day moving average at $4503.19.
The potential resistance at $4481.78 is interesting because it represents 20% down from the all-time high. Some chart-watchers consider this to be the price level that started the bear market.
On the downside, the market remains vulnerable to a sharp correction despite the change in trend on the swing chart. Spot gold recaptured the 50-day moving average at $4146.34 and nearly touched the 200-day moving average at $4503.19. The main target area on the downside is the retracement zone at $4195.96 to $4136.05.
What to Watch
Gold has the better rate backdrop heading into the weekend. The payrolls miss started the shift. CPI did not reverse it. PPI reinforced it. Hold odds near 68% are a real change from where the market stood seven days ago. The two-month high and the $180 reversal off it tell you the market priced most of that improvement and then ran into selling from traders who see the oil risk ahead. The blockade threat, restricted Hormuz traffic and stalled talks are not going away over the weekend, and if crude opens higher Monday the inflation argument that two soft reports just weakened starts rebuilding immediately.
The swing chart trend turned up this week but gold nearly touched the 200-day moving average at $4,503.19 and could not hold the move. The overnight low at $4,311.04 and Friday’s bounce off it suggest buyers are shifting to a dip-buying posture. The retracement zone near the 50-day moving average at $4,146 is where the correction finds real support if selling extends. The distance between that zone and the 200-day defines the range until the next catalyst picks a direction.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
US Dollar /Swiss Franc (USD/CHF): Arc cycle analysis
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, USD/CHF is interacting with the 1 (100%) Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.
Market outlookThe 1 (100%) Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.
If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 0.8040 (0.786 Arc) becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 4h close above the Arc would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the next Resistance Arc.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
Orbex Group Limited is the holding company of Orbex Global Limited, Orbex Limited is an affiliate with Orbex Global Limited. Orbex Global Limited is authorized and regulated by Mauritius Financial Services Commission “FSC” (View License). Orbex.com is owned by Orbex Group Limited and is operated by Orbex Global Limited with registered address: Ground Floor, The Catalyst, Silicon Avenue, 40 Cybercity, 72201 Ebène, Republic of Mauritius
Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USDJPY): Arc cycle analysis
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, USD/JPY is interacting with the 0.5 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion.
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Bearish / Neutral-Bearish
Preferred Scenario
Potential Rejection / Decline Toward Next Support Arc
Primary Target Zone
158.66
Scenario Invalidation
Sustained close above 159.55
Current Arc Level
Resistance Arc (0.5)
Cycle Status
Testing Resistance Arc
Arc Integrity
Strong
Market outlookThe 0.5 Arc continues to act as a resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc, indicating that the resistance remains intact.
If the Resistance Arc holds firm, a decline toward 158.66 (0.618 Arc) becomes the primary scenario. Conversely, a sustained 4h close above the Arc would invalidate the bearish scenario, opening the path toward the next Resistance Arc at 0.382 Arc.
Market news from the European morning session - 14 August 2026
Headlines:
Dollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodBitcoin loses key $64,000 level: The important support levels BTC must hold nextBOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tighteningGerman wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapsesFrench inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as wellSwiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarterChina new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this yearMarkets:
WTI crude oil up 0.5% to $81.64NZD leads, USD lags on the dayGold up 0.3% to $4,362S&P 500 futures up 0.1%, Nasdaq futures up 0.2%US 10-year yields up 0.3 bps to 4.645%Bitcoin down 0.8% to $62,829There's not all too much in it as we get into the final stretch of the week.
The market mood is fairly mixed, with the dollar sitting lower while oil prices and bond yields are just a touch higher on the day.
There are no fresh developments on the US-Iran conflict, with the Strait of Hormuz still in de facto closure after Iran threatened more ships again - this time being UAE oil vessels.
WTI crude sits higher by 0.5% to $81.64 and looks poised to end the week with gains well over 5%. Meanwhile, bond yields also nudged a little higher early on but is now moving back down a little. 10-year yields in the US are little changed now at 4.645% with the earlier high touching 4.665%.
Even so, the dollar is seen being offered in European morning trade. It was one-way traffic with the greenback losing ground across the board. EUR/USD is up 0.3% to 1.1567 in retesting the 100-day moving average once again. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is down 0.2% to close in on the 159.00 mark on the day.
In other markets, European indices are lightly changed for the most part while US futures are holding a marginal advance on the day. There's not a whole lot in it but Wall Street will be hoping to follow up from the record close in the S&P 500 yesterday.
Besides that, gold is up 0.3% to $4,362 after erasing early losses with the fall back earlier touching a low of $4,311.
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investingLive European session wrap: Dollar falls, gold rebounds amid mixed marketsThree reasons why BOJ rate hikes will not save the yenChina new bank loans contract again in July, the second time this yearEurozone Q2 GDP second estimate +0.4% vs +0.4% q/q prelimDollar nudges lower on the day amid mixed market moodSwiss economy estimated to post quarterly growth of 1.5% in the second quarterFrench inflation accelerates again in July, core prices move up as wellFX option expiries for 14 August 10am New York cutGerman wholesale prices bounce back in July as energy tax cut lapsesBOJ reportedly set for a September rate hike, eyes faster pace of tightening
Societe Generale strategists highlight that the South African Rand (ZAR) continues to outperform in CEEMEA, gaining about 2.4% versus the US Dollar (USD) in spot terms this month. USD/ZAR is close to breaking below 16.00 for the first time since February. Stronger Gold prices, dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) repricing, and robust foreign demand for South African Government Bonds are supporting the currency.
"The rand remains the region’s top performer this month (spot +2.4% vs USD, total return +2.7%), with USD/ZAR now within 1% of returning below the 16.00 for the first time since early February."
"The combination of firmer gold prices and dovish Fed repricing following the recent US NFP and CPI releases has provided a supportive backdrop for the risk proxy rand."
"Foreign investors purchased a net ZAR23.1bn of SAGBs in the first week of August, the strongest weekly inflow since January, underscoring robust demand for carry."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The British Pound (GBP) trades 0.35% higher to near 1.3533 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The GBP/USD pair reflects strength as the US Dollar declines, with traders pricing out the possibility of an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September policy meeting.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% lower to near 99.70.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.34%-0.39%-0.24%-0.35%-0.31%-0.65%-0.27%EUR0.34%-0.05%0.07%-0.06%0.03%-0.32%0.06%GBP0.39%0.05%0.15%0.00%0.08%-0.25%0.12%JPY0.24%-0.07%-0.15%-0.11%-0.08%-0.43%-0.03%CAD0.35%0.06%-0.00%0.11%0.04%-0.29%0.08%AUD0.31%-0.03%-0.08%0.08%-0.04%-0.34%0.05%NZD0.65%0.32%0.25%0.43%0.29%0.34%0.39%CHF0.27%-0.06%-0.12%0.03%-0.08%-0.05%-0.39%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The CME FedWatch tool shows that the odds of the Fed holding policy rates steady in September have increased to almost 65%. This represents a major repricing from the 75% odds of two Fed hikes by the September meeting recorded a month earlier.
Soft United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July allowed traders to pare back hawkish Fed interest rate expectations.
US inflation data temper September Fed hike oddsAnalysts at Commerzbank note that "July US CPI came in broadly in line with expectations," reinforcing the view that price pressures, while still elevated, are not re-accelerating. They highlight that "overall, the report suggested that underlying inflation remains above the Fed's target but showed no broad-based re-acceleration, giving policymakers more room to remain on hold." In response, Commerzbank points out that "the Fed funds futures subsequently pared expectations for a September rate hike, with markets pricing around a 40% probability of a 25bp increase compared with 52% on Monday," underscoring a modest but notable shift in near-term Fed tightening expectations.
Meanwhile, the British Pound is expected to trade highly volatile next week as the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for three months ending June and the CPI data for July are scheduled to be released on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3535, having pushed decisively above the former downward resistance trend line, which now offers support around 1.3451. Price action above this reclaimed structural level suggests a bullish near-term bias, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 62.7 shows firm positive momentum without yet reaching overbought territory, hinting that buyers retain control.
On the downside, the broken trend-line region near 1.3451 is immediate support, and a daily close back below that level would signal waning bullish pressure. On the topside, the next notable hurdle is the origin of the previous trend line around 1.3871, where a sustained break would open the way for a broader continuation of sterling gains against the dollar.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs
The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022.
Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) outperforms a majority of its currency peers on Friday, with the USD/CAD pair trading 0.32% lower at around 1.3888. The Canadian currency gains on hopes of a United States (US)-Canada interim deal.
A Canadian government source directly familiar with trade negotiations with the United States said on Thursday that talks were progressing well and Washington also wanted an agreement before a new US tariff deadline on August 19, Reuters reports.
Meanwhile, weakness in the US Dollar due to receding fears of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in the September meeting has also weighed on the Loonie pair. At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.23% lower to near 99.70.
Fed patience holds as US inflation trend improves but remains above targetAnalysts at Wells Fargo observe that “inflation remains elevated, but the trend is improving,” noting that “while inflation remains above target, the recent upturn appears narrow rather than broad-based.” Against this backdrop, they judge that “the Fed remains stuck on hold,” with policymakers reluctant to shift policy until they see clearer evidence that price pressures are durably contained.
Commerzbank’s Bernd Weidensteiner similarly highlights that the inflation data for July “indicated only moderate inflationary pressure; consumer prices excluding food and energy rose by 0.2% from the previous month, while the year-over-year rate fell slightly to 2.5%.” He adds that, although this outcome was broadly in line with expectations, “these figures, combined with the unexpectedly weak jobs data, eased the pressure on the Fed to raise its key interest rates anytime soon.” Together, the banks’ commentary underscores a picture of gradually improving but still above-target US inflation, reinforcing the case for the Fed to remain on hold for now.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis
USD/CAD trades lower at around 1.3888, keeping a bearish near‑term tone as spot holds under the 100‑day simple moving average (SMA) at 1.3920 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3902. The pair has retreated from recent highs toward the middle of the prior upswing range, while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 29.95 slips into oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is stretched but not yet reversed.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50.0% retracement of the latest move at 1.3902, followed by the 100‑day SMA at 1.3920; a sustained break above this band would ease the current bearish pressure and expose the 38.2% level at 1.3984 and then the 23.6% retracement at 1.4085. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3819, ahead of the 78.6% level at 1.3702, while deeper losses would bring the structural swing low region near the 100.0% retracement at 1.3553 into focus.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds on Friday after opening the day in negative territory and falling to a fresh weekly low of $4,311. At the time of writing, the precious metal trades around $4,350, supported by a softer US Dollar (USD) and fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. The metal, however, remains below the two-month high of $4,449 touched on Thursday.
This week’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) releases showed that inflationary pressures are gradually easing. Meanwhile, weaker-than-expected July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and sharp downward revisions to the previous two months' figures cast doubt on the recent strength of the labour market.
The softer run of US economic data has pushed front-end Treasury yields sharply lower and kept the US Dollar Index (DXY) pressured below 100, as traders trim bets on a September Fed rate hike. Attention now turns to US Retail Sales and preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment data due later on Friday.
Analysts at MUFG highlight that "the slowdown in private employment and wage growth in recent months alongside limited evidence of higher energy prices spilling over into core inflation since the US-Iran conflict started is providing more leeway for the Fed to leave rates on hold."
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in around a 70% chance that the Fed will keep borrowing costs unchanged in September.
This creates a supportive near-term backdrop for the non-yielding metal, but the inflation outlook is far from settled. Inflation is still running above the Fed’s 2% target, while the impact of the energy shock has not fully faded. Oil prices remain elevated as uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drags on.
Longer-dated US Treasury yields also remain high, as persistent inflation risks leave the possibility of future Fed rate hikes on the table. This could limit Gold’s upside and keep buyers cautious about chasing the metal higher after its recent advance.
Technical analysis: XAU/USD struggles to clear 100-day SMA
XAU/USD remains near recent highs but is struggling to secure a decisive break above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,386. The metal holds well above the 20-day SMA, which forms the Bollinger middle band at $4,173.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is around 62 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator in positive territory suggests that bullish momentum is still firm enough to challenge the overhead barrier.
On the topside, the area between the 100-day SMA at $4,386 and the Bollinger upper band at $4,455 forms a strong resistance zone. A sustained break above this area could bring fresh bullish momentum.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around $4,173, ahead of the psychologically important $4,000 mark. A deeper slide would expose the Bollinger lower band near $3,891.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, EUR/USD is interacting with the 0.618 Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price remains centered around this Arc, indicating that directional confirmation has not yet been established.
Market outlookPrice remains centered around the 0.618 Arc, indicating that the market has not yet established a directional bias within the current Arc Cycle. The preferred approach is to await confirmation before anticipating the next significant move.
A sustained 4h close above the Arc would favor continued movement toward 1.1790, while a sustained close below the Arc would shift the outlook toward 1.1330.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) appreciates on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) loses ground across the board amid dwindling hopes of immediate Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. The NZD/USD pair has bounced up to session highs beyond 0.5880 at the time of writing after bouncing from 0.5820 lows on Thursday, with bulls eyeing two-month highs right above 0.5900.
Brown Brothers Harriman’s Elias Haddad highlights that “cooling US CPI and PPI inflation in July” have “trimmed the implied odds of a Fed rate hike in September to nearly 30%, the lowest since the June 17 FOMC decision.”
Haddad notes that this repricing “is keeping USD in check and lifting risk appetite despite the ongoing US-Iran conflict,” adding that “today’s US data releases are unlikely to shift the dial on Fed fund futures pricing.”
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the 0.5920 area
NZD/USD held above the 200-day SMA on Thursday and has bounced up strongly, trading at 0.5883 at the time of writing and honouring the upward trendline support from late-June lows.
Momentum indicators in the daily chart are neutral to bullish, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 59 hinting at a constructive bias, while a slightly negative Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) warns about the frail upside pressure.
Bulls are looking at the area between 0.5905 and 0.5920 where August 3 and 7 highs meet the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of June's selloff. Further up, the 0.6000 area, where bulls were capped in May and early June, emerges as the next target.
On the downside, initial support, the area between the upward trendline, now at 0.5850, and the 200-day SMA at 0.5831, remains a significant challenge for bears. Below here, the late July lows, near 0.5760, would come into play.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.22%-0.31%-0.22%-0.31%-0.23%-0.54%-0.11%EUR0.22%-0.09%0.00%-0.13%0.00%-0.34%0.11%GBP0.31%0.09%0.11%-0.03%0.09%-0.22%0.21%JPY0.22%0.00%-0.11%-0.07%-0.01%-0.35%0.12%CAD0.31%0.13%0.03%0.07%0.07%-0.24%0.20%AUD0.23%-0.00%-0.09%0.00%-0.07%-0.32%0.13%NZD0.54%0.34%0.22%0.35%0.24%0.32%0.46%CHF0.11%-0.11%-0.21%-0.12%-0.20%-0.13%-0.46%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Strait of Hormuz staying restricted is part of the reason the dollar held. Geopolitical uncertainty keeps a bid under the greenback even as rate expectations shift lower. Silver is trading the rate outlook. The dollar is trading the conflict. They are looking at different sides of the same story and this week the dollar won.
The Fed Is Not Done Debating and Oil Keeps the Door Open The inflation reports weakened the September hike case. They did not settle it. The Fed is still split. Some officials are focused on the risk that oil pushes inflation higher again. Others now have weaker payrolls, soft CPI and flat PPI to argue that another increase can wait.
Crude pulled back this week on OPEC and IEA demand downgrades, which takes some pressure off the headline inflation number the Fed watches. But oil is still well above pre-conflict levels and the strait is still restricted. A fresh move higher in crude rebuilds the inflation argument that two soft reports just weakened. Silver is not trading the war. It is trading what the war does to fuel costs and what fuel costs do to the Fed.
What to Watch Silver enters the weekend with a better rate backdrop than it had a week ago. The payrolls miss started it. CPI did not reverse it. PPI reinforced it. September hold odds at 65% are a real shift from where they were seven days ago. The metal still could not hold above $66.00 after reaching $66.80, and the dollar staying firm through every soft print is the reason the rate-relief trade did not translate into a sustained rally.
The main trend is up and Friday’s bounce off last week’s close at $63.51 shows defensive buying near support. A push through $66.80 resumes the uptrend with the 200-day moving average at $71.51 as the next target. A failure to hold and a break toward the 50-day at $61.35 tells you the rate trade was not strong enough to overcome the dollar headwind.
Silver (XAG/USD) gains 0.37% on Friday and trades around $64.70 at the time of writing, erasing part of its recent correction. The precious metal benefits from easing expectations of monetary tightening in the United States (US), although persistent tensions in the Middle East continue to fuel concerns about energy prices and limit investor optimism.
The latest US inflation data reinforce the view that price pressures are beginning to ease. The Producer Price Index (PPI) slowed to 4.7% YoY, while the Core PPI came in at 4.2%. These figures, combined with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday, are helping reduce expectations of further monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see around a 35% chance of an interest rate hike at the September meeting, down from 40% immediately after the PPI release and from a significantly higher level at the end of July. This shift supports Silver, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Fed officials nevertheless remain divided. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee believes that some of the recent price pressures stem from temporary factors, particularly tariffs and energy, arguing in favor of a patient approach. In contrast, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack considers that progress on inflation remains insufficient and that further rate hikes may be necessary to ensure price stability.
The geopolitical backdrop also remains a key driver for XAG/USD. Negotiations aimed at restoring traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remain stalled, while traffic continues to be very limited through this key waterway and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Disruptions to energy supplies are keeping Oil prices elevated and could reignite inflationary pressures, complicating the Fed's task.
Attention now turns to US July Retail Sales, due later on Friday. Following recent signs of slowing inflation and weakness in the labor market, a weaker-than-expected reading could reinforce expectations of a more cautious Fed and provide further support to Silver. Conversely, resilient US consumer spending could revive speculation that interest rates will remain elevated for longer.
XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $64.67, maintaining a capped tone as it holds beneath the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $65.00 and the downward resistance trend line coming in near $65.15. The pair remains above the 200-hour SMA at $63.09, which hints at an underlying broader uptrend, but the current location between these moving averages favors near-term consolidation under resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52 suggests mildly positive momentum, yet this does little more than temper selling pressure while overhead levels continue to restrain the upside.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered around the 100-hour SMA at $65.00 and the trend-line barrier near $65.15, with a more distant horizontal cap at $66.80 likely to attract sellers on any stronger rebound. On the downside, initial demand is expected near the 200-hour SMA at $63.09, closely followed by the horizontal support at $63.00, where a break would open the door to a deeper correction and weaken the broader constructive backdrop for silver prices.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Friday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $64.76 per troy ounce, up 0.48% from the $64.45 it cost on Thursday.
Silver prices have decreased by 8.90% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.22 on Friday, down from 67.50 on Thursday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
MUFG’s Lee Hardman reports the British Pound (GBP) is the best performing major currency in August, with GBP/USD back above 1.3500. The United Kingdom (UK) economy is proving resilient to the energy price shock linked to the US-Iran conflict, with Q2 GDP up 0.4% after 0.6% in Q1. Strong private consumption, recovering business investment and robust services and IT activity are supporting the currency.
UK data and carry back Pound strength"The pound is continuing to perform well this year."
"It has been the best performing major currency so far in August with cable rising back above the 1.3500."
"The pound has been supported by further evidence yesterday that the UK economy is proving more resilient than expected to the negative energy price shock triggered by the US-Iran conflict."
"It was revealed yesterday that the UK economy expanded by 0.4% in Q2 following strong growth of 0.6% in Q1."
"After stagnating following the Brexit vote in 2016 until the COVID shock in 2020, business investment has since regained upward momentum providing a tailwind for the UK economy."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The British Pound (GBP) pares losses against a weaker US Dollar (USD) on Friday, as a run of soft US inflation figures and growing signs of labour market deterioration have cast doubt about the odds for an immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike. The GBP/USD has returned to the 1.3520 area from Thursday’s lows at 1.3474, inching towards a key resistance around 1.3550.
The focus on Friday is on the US Retail Sales, which are expected to show a 0.1% uptick in July, after a 0.2% gain in June, alongside the University of Michigan survey, which is foreseen to be little changed in August.
FX Strategists at ING state that these are "second-tier releases" that would "likely need to deliver significant surprises to trigger a meaningful dollar reaction," reinforcing the sense that, absent a major data shock, the Dollar is unlikely to break decisively from its current, relatively stable trading pattern.
Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the 1.3550 area
GBP/USD trades at 1.3520 at the time of writing, trapped within the weekly trading range, with key resistance area around 1.3550. Momentum indicators show an incipient bullish traction with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) above 60, yet with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator flat near the zero line, which suggests that the move is far from impulsive.
Pound bulls would need to confirm above the July 15 and August 12 highs, around 1.3550, to resume their broader bullish trend, aiming for a retest of the early May highs in the mid-range of the 1.3600s.
Downside attempts, on the other hand, have been contained at Thursday's low of 1.3474, ahead of the previous week's trading bottom, just above 1.3400. Further down, there is no clear support until the July 27 low, at 1.3273.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.20%-0.26%-0.25%-0.28%-0.16%-0.44%-0.09%EUR0.20%-0.06%-0.06%-0.11%0.05%-0.24%0.11%GBP0.26%0.06%0.02%-0.05%0.11%-0.16%0.18%JPY0.25%0.06%-0.02%-0.01%0.09%-0.20%0.18%CAD0.28%0.11%0.05%0.01%0.11%-0.16%0.20%AUD0.16%-0.05%-0.11%-0.09%-0.11%-0.28%0.09%NZD0.44%0.24%0.16%0.20%0.16%0.28%0.38%CHF0.09%-0.11%-0.18%-0.18%-0.20%-0.09%-0.38%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On 13 August, the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported that GDP growth slowed to 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter, down from 0.6% in the first quarter. The figure was in line with expectations, and the market reaction was relatively muted.
The interest-rate backdrop has also remained broadly unchanged for several weeks. On 30 July, the Bank of England kept its policy rate at 3.75%, while the ECB left its rate at 2.25% on 23 July. With both decisions largely priced into the market, the absence of fresh guidance from either central bank means that short-term EUR/GBP price action may be driven more by technical factors than by the latest macroeconomic data.
Technical Analysis of EUR/GBP
The second half of July saw a strong upward move in EUR/GBP, with the pair climbing from below 0.8460 to a peak near the current resistance level at 0.8586.
The rally was followed by a consolidation phase. Since the beginning of August, price action has gradually narrowed into a pattern resembling a symmetrical triangle, with the trading range becoming progressively tighter.
On Monday, 10 August, the pair broke below the lower boundary of the formation. EUR/GBP is currently trading beneath both the triangle’s lower trendline and the lower boundary of the current market profile at 0.8553, while testing the latter from below. If this retest is successful and the downside move gains momentum, the green support level around 0.8533 could become increasingly important.
A false breakout, however, would shift attention back towards the upside. In that scenario, the pair would face several technical barriers: the Point of Control (POC) at 0.8564, the upper boundary of the profile at 0.8580, and the key resistance level at 0.8586.
The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 48, 40 and 43. The bearish signal has failed to develop further, while the RSI has moved back into the neutral zone, suggesting that momentum remains inconclusive.
Key Takeaways
The attempted downside breakout has pushed EUR/GBP outside the profile in which the recent consolidation developed. The next directional move may depend on whether the pound receives additional support from the Bank of England as the central bank determines its subsequent policy course.
For now, the technical setup remains vulnerable to a false breakout, with the 0.8553 retest likely to be particularly important in determining whether sellers can maintain control or the pair returns to the consolidation range.
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