Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

The Euro (EUR) crawls higher for the third consecutive day on Monday, against a weak Yen (JPY), weighed down by downbeat Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. The EUR/JPY pair confirmed the breach of the 50% retracement of the late July sell-off, trading at the 184.50 area at the time of writing, with the resistance area around 185.00 coming closer.

The Japanese Cabinet Office revealed earlier on Monday that the country’s economic growth slowed down to 0.3% in the second quarter, against the market consensus of a steady 0.5% reading. Year-on-year, the Japanese economy decelerated to a 1.1% growth, from 1.8% in the previous quarter, instead of the 2.0% rise anticipated by market analysts.

Economists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that Japan’s latest activity data underscores a softer growth pulse than markets had anticipated. BBH highlights that “private consumption was flat, while private non-residential investment shaved -0.2ppt off growth.” “The sluggish domestic demand activity will do little to ease Japan’s fiscal concerns, a major headwind for JPY.” Said the BBH experts in a note.

Technical Analysts: In a bullish trend, aiming for the 185.00 area

EUR/JPY trades at 184.54, with price action holding comfortably above an ascending trendline from late July lows, and momentum indicators reflecting growing upside traction. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52 signals neutral-to-positive momentum, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned increasingly positive, hinting that bullish pressure is rebuilding after a consolidating phase last week.

Bulls are likely to meet significant resistance at the area between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of July's decline, at 184.82, and the July 31 high, at 185.17. Beyond here, the next upside target is the July 27 and 28 lows and the 78.2% Fibonacci retracement, near 186.00

On the downside, immediate support is seen at the confluence of the 200-day SMA and the 50% retracement of the previously mentioned decline, just under 184.00. If these levels are broken, the focus will shift towards the Fibonacci cushions at 183.15, which held bears on August 12.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.17%-0.16%-0.03%-0.09%-0.59%-0.45%-0.38%EUR0.17%-0.01%0.13%0.07%-0.39%-0.25%-0.21%GBP0.16%0.00%0.13%0.07%-0.37%-0.27%-0.20%JPY0.03%-0.13%-0.13%-0.05%-0.54%-0.40%-0.32%CAD0.09%-0.07%-0.07%0.05%-0.49%-0.36%-0.29%AUD0.59%0.39%0.37%0.54%0.49%0.13%0.15%NZD0.45%0.25%0.27%0.40%0.36%-0.13%0.07%CHF0.38%0.21%0.20%0.32%0.29%-0.15%-0.07%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Sterling enters this week on a mixed footing. Last month’s Bank of England decision struck a notably hawkish tone, with the vote split 6-3 in favor of holding rates, three members pushed for a hike, a signal the Bank remains genuinely worried about inflation as Middle East-driven energy costs work through the economy. Yet political uncertainty continues to simmer following Keir Starmer’s unexpected June resignation, leaving fiscal credibility, and by extension sterling, more sensitive than usual to how Labour manages the transition.

The kiwi, meanwhile, is being propped up almost entirely by rate expectations. Markets currently price an 88% probability of an RBNZ hike in September, even after New Zealand’s unemployment rate climbed to a decade-high 5.6%. UBS argues the labor data isn’t as bearish as it looks, since the rise was driven mainly by more people entering the workforce rather than layoffs, keeping the central bank’s tightening path intact. Softer inflation expectations and a weaker July manufacturing PMI, however, have started to inject some doubt into just how far the RBNZ can realistically go.

The result: a pound navigating political noise against a kiwi riding hawkish rate bets that may be more fragile than markets currently assume.

Technical Analysis of GBP/NZD

As GBP/NZD chart shows, the pair has been compressing into a broad symmetrical triangle since early June, with a descending trendline from July’s highs near 2.3550 converging with an ascending trendline off June’s lows, both meeting right around current price near 2.2900-2.2980, where the 100-period EMA also sits. This confluence, together with the well-established 2.2900-2.3100 support and resistance zone, marks a decisive juncture for the pair.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers defend the ascending trendline and reclaim the 100-period EMA, the path would open toward the 2.3100 resistance, the upper boundary of the recent range. A confirmed break above this zone, and the descending trendline itself, would signal a genuine shift in momentum, opening the door toward a retest of the July highs near 2.3550.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 2.2900 support would expose the broader downtrend that has dominated since early July, with price risking a slide back toward the 2.2800 area and beyond, as the months-long descending structure reasserts itself.

With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, GBP/NZD looks primed for a decisive move—will sterling’s political noise finally give way to the kiwi’s rate story, or does this range hold just a little longer?

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The Pound-Australian Dollar rate could push higher if strong UK jobs and inflation data lift BoE rate expectations, while softer Australian employment may weigh on the Aussie.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate wavered last week amid a shifting market mood and thin trading conditions.

At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.9124. Up roughly 0.2% from the start of last week’s session.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.910733 (+0.02%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.354004 (+0.05%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Australian dollar (AUD) got off to a soft start last week amid Chinese disinflation concerns and a nervous market mood.

The 'Aussie' then hit its worst levels of the week immediately following the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) latest policy meeting and its decision to leave interest rates on hold.

These losses were short-lived, however, with AUD exchange rates rebounding following some particularly hawkish remarks from RBA Governor Michele Bullock during her post-meeting press conference, in which she suggested it is 'quite possible' the bank will need to tighten policy again.

The second half of the week then saw the Australian Dollar left adrift as ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East weighed on market risk sentiment.

The Pound (GBP) initially opened last week on strong footing, rallying against the majority of its peers through the first part of the session.

However, with no clear catalyst underpinning these gains, Sterling struggled to sustain these gains for long and was left to languish through the middle of the week amid a prolonged lull in UK economic indicators.

The second half of the week, then broke the long drought in data with the publication of the UK's latest GDP figures.

While data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed the UK economy expanded by a healthy 0.4% in the second quarter, it failed to inspire much enthusiasm among GBP investors, with Sterling stumbling as many questioned whether this momentum could be sustained into the latter part of the year.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Strong UK Data to Lift Sterling?
Looking ahead, a glut of high-impact UK economic indicators are set to drive movement in the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate this week.

The most influential releases will likely be the UK's latest inflation and employment figures as these will likely have the greatest impact on Bank of England (BoE) interest rate expectations.

If this week's data is seen as encouraging the BoE to tighten monetary policy in the coming months, it could lift Sterling.

Meanwhile, the primary focus for AUD investors will be on the publication of Australia's own jobs report.

Analysts forecast employment growth will have moderated last month after spiking in June, which, coupled with a rise in the jobless rate, could dampen RBA rate hike bets and sap the 'Aussie'.

Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

TL;DR: Gold’s rally paused exactly at major trendline resistance near 4,450, but shallow follow-through selling suggests consolidation, not reversal — with this week’s Iran truce deadline and early-September US data now the two catalysts that will decide the next move.

Gold’s Rally Pauses, But Bulls Haven’t Lost Control
Gold’s rally paused last week almost exactly at a major technical ceiling, with price rejected around 4,449.73, where the descending trendline from February’s 5,598.75 high now sits. Yet follow-through selling has been limited. Gold remains comfortably above 4,317.72 horizontal support and the 55 4H EMA around 4,311.63, leaving the pullback looking more like consolidation than reversal.

That resilience reflects a macro backdrop that has changed substantially over the past month. Gold’s main driver has been a sharp reduction in expected Fed tightening. As recently as mid-July, some Wall Street forecasts were entertaining a much more aggressive policy reversal, with one framing the range of outcomes as anything from the Fed standing pat to effectively reversing all of last year’s rate cuts. Two softer-than-expected inflation reports have since changed that discussion — September hike odds have fallen from roughly 60% earlier this month to around 25–30%, while broader pricing increasingly points to only one or two modest additional moves rather than an extended tightening cycle.

Fed Fine-Tuning Is Gold’s Main Support
A sustained tightening campaign would threaten to push Treasury yields and the Dollar higher for an extended period, creating a much more difficult environment for a non-interest-paying asset. A limited “fine-tuning” exercise is considerably easier for Gold to absorb. As long as markets continue to believe the Fed is dealing with residual inflation risks rather than preparing for another full tightening cycle, the underlying rate backdrop should stay supportive.

But that story hasn’t been fully settled. Early-September US employment and inflation data will provide the next major test. Soft jobs and benign inflation would strengthen the argument that the Fed can keep any further tightening limited, potentially giving Gold enough macro support to move beyond current resistance. Strong employment or renewed inflation acceleration would be more problematic, because they would directly challenge the premise behind the rally and could rebuild expectations for a more aggressive rate path.

The Iran Deadline Matters Through Brent $90
Before those US releases arrive, markets face another potential catalyst. The formal 60-day US-Iran truce deadline, stemming from the agreement signed in mid-June, arrives this week. Calling it an intact ceasefire that’s simply about to expire would be misleading, however — the arrangement has already been effectively non-functional for weeks, with tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz continuing through August.

The question is therefore whether the formal deadline triggers a fresh escalation beyond the current standoff, or simply passes without major change. So far, the US response has leaned more heavily toward economic pressure through financial and trade restrictions rather than the large-scale military strikes President Donald Trump has threatened previously. That’s a less escalatory posture for now, and Brent just below $90 provides the clearest market gauge of whether the situation is worsening materially.

Oil is especially important because it links geopolitical risk back to the Fed. If the current standoff persists and Brent continues failing below $90, markets can keep focusing on limited Fed tightening. A decisive oil breakout caused by substantial escalation would reopen inflation concerns and could force investors to reconsider that benign rate path. Gold might initially benefit from geopolitical demand, but a sufficiently large oil shock could eventually become a headwind if it lifts inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and Fed hike pricing.

Two Catalysts, Three Paths for Gold
That leaves Gold with three relatively clear scenarios. If the Iran situation doesn’t worsen materially and upcoming US data stay soft, Gold should retain its most straightforward bullish backdrop: contained oil, fading tightening risk, and limited pressure from yields and the Dollar. Fresh Middle East escalation with Fed expectations otherwise benign could also push Gold higher initially, although the strength of the oil response would determine whether that support lasts. Strong US employment or inflation data are the clearest downside risk, because they would attack the current rally at its source by reviving expectations for more aggressive Fed tightening.

ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold
Gold’s rally stalled precisely at descending trendline resistance drawn from the February high at 5,598.75, currently around the 4,449 area. The pullback since has been shallow: price remains well above both the 55 4H EMA (4,311.63) and a horizontal support pivot just above it (4,317.72) — neither has even been violated yet, consistent with a “healthy pause” rather than a reversal.

A clean break above 4,449.73 would extend the rally toward 4,575.31, representing the 38.2% retracement of the decline from 5,598.75 to 3,942.43. That would be the next major test of whether the corrective fall from the February high has run its course. On the downside, a sustained break of the 4,317.72–4,311.63 support zone would be the first meaningful evidence that the shallow-pullback thesis is failing.

For now, Gold can continue marking time beneath 4,450. Barring major Middle East escalation and a Brent breakout above $90, the bias stays tilted toward another rally toward 4,575. But breaking decisively beyond that level may require early-September US data to do something more important: invalidate the case for renewed Fed tightening rather than merely reduce it.

Key Takeaways

Gold’s rejection at 4,449.73 trendline resistance has produced only a shallow pullback, with both 4,317.72 support and the 55 4H EMA still intact.
September Fed hike odds have fallen from roughly 60% to 25-30% on two soft inflation reports, the main driver behind Gold’s rally toward resistance.
This week’s Iran truce deadline is a secondary catalyst; Brent holding below $90 signals a contained standoff, while a breakout would reopen inflation and Fed tightening risk.
Early-September US jobs and inflation data are the more consequential test, since only weak data can fully invalidate the case for renewed Fed tightening, not just delay it.
A break above 4,449.73 opens 4,575.31; a sustained break of 4,317.72-4,311.63 would be the first real evidence the consolidation is turning into a reversal.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

The EUR/USD pair builds on last week's bounce from the vicinity of the 1.1500 psychological mark and gains strong follow-through positive traction on Monday. The momentum lifts spot prices beyond the 1.1600 round figure during the first half of the European session and is supported by a broadly weaker US Dollar (USD).

Traders scaled back their expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after data released last week pointed to signs of cooling inflation and a slowdown in consumer spending. This, in turn, dragged the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to an over two-month low and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair.

From a technical perspective, spot prices confirmed an intraday breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June decline. Moreover, a firm Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 67 and a positive, mildly rising Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram hint that buyers still have the upper hand. Risks of overextension might cap the EUR/USD pair near the 200-day SMA at 1.1630, and the 61.8% retracement at 1.1645 sit just overhead.

A sustained break above this band could open the way toward the 78.6% retracement at 1.1732 and ultimately the cycle high near 1.1843. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 50% retracement at 1.1584 ahead of the 100-day SMA at 1.1569. A deeper pullback would expose the 38.2% Fibo. level at 1.1522 and then the 23.6% retracement at 1.1447, with the broader bullish structure only seriously threatened on a drop toward the 1.1324 swing low.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

EUR/USD daily chart

US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.23%-0.10%-0.11%-0.10%-0.49%-0.46%-0.50%EUR0.23%0.10%0.13%0.13%-0.24%-0.24%-0.27%GBP0.10%-0.10%0.00%0.00%-0.33%-0.37%-0.37%JPY0.11%-0.13%0.00%0.01%-0.37%-0.34%-0.36%CAD0.10%-0.13%-0.01%-0.01%-0.38%-0.36%-0.39%AUD0.49%0.24%0.33%0.37%0.38%0.03%-0.07%NZD0.46%0.24%0.37%0.34%0.36%-0.03%-0.03%CHF0.50%0.27%0.37%0.36%0.39%0.07%0.03%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

EUR/USD begins the week around 1.1588, reaching its highest level in eight weeks. The euro has been supported by dollar weakness following fresh US economic data, which revived doubts about the stability of the US economy and reduced expectations of imminent Federal Reserve tightening.

The University of Michigan's preliminary consumer sentiment index fell to 51.0 in August, down from 54.2 in July and below the 55.2 forecast. The current conditions index declined to 51.8 from 54.8, while the expectations component dropped to 50.6 from 55.4. At the same time, short-term inflation expectations ticked up to 4.3% from 4.2%, while five-year expectations held steady at 3.3%.

Estimates of US economic growth have also become less confident. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model lowered its Q3 GDP growth forecast to 4.3% from 5.8%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast estimates growth at approximately 2.1%. This widens the tension between continued economic activity and deteriorating consumer expectations.

For the dollar, the outlook remains mixed. Weak consumer indicators and lower growth forecasts weigh on the US currency, but elevated short-term inflation expectations prevent markets from completely abandoning the prospect of a hawkish Fed policy stance.

As a result, the baseline for EUR/USD remains moderately positive, but further direction will depend on new signals regarding the US economy and the Federal Reserve's policy stance.

Technical analysis

On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market continues to develop its consolidation range. The consolidation range around the 1.1561 level has practically formed. An upside breakout would suggest a corrective wave developing to 1.1594, followed by a decline to 1.1500. A direct downside breakout would open potential for a downward wave to 1.1400, with the prospect of the trend continuing to 1.1260. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator-its signal line is above the zero level but pointing strictly downwards, reflecting continued bearish momentum with the potential for the downward trend to persist.

On the H1 chart, the market has completed the next growth wave to the 1.1555 level. A consolidation range is currently forming around this level. A range expansion up to 1.1594 is expected, followed by a decline to 1.1500, with the prospect of continuing the wave to 1.1400. Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the Stochastic oscillator-its signal line is above the 80 level and pointing strictly downwards to 20.

ConclusionEUR/USD has climbed to an eight-week high, supported by a weaker dollar following disappointing US consumer sentiment data and downward revisions to growth forecasts. The University of Michigan survey showed a sharp decline in confidence, while the Atlanta and New York Fed growth estimates have been trimmed. However, rising short-term inflation expectations keep the prospect of Fed tightening alive, limiting the dollar's downside. Technically, the pair may see a further push towards 1.1594 before a potential pullback to 1.1500, with the broader trend dependent on upcoming US economic data and Fed signals. The bearish structure remains intact, suggesting that any upside may be temporary.

The British Pound could rebound against the Canadian Dollar if softer inflation weighs on the Loonie, while firmer UK jobs and CPI data support Sterling. The Pound Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate wavered down to a two-week low last week, despite UK GDP figures, as oil prices rose.

At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8787, down marginally on the week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.878157 (+0.02%)

Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.605158 (-0.01%)

Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.38723 (-0.02%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) started the week on the front foot, with Sterling edging higher despite a lack of any clear catalyst for the move.

A quiet run of economic data on Tuesday and Wednesday left GBP without much fresh impetus, and the currency traded within a tight range. As a result, the Pound slipped against its stronger peers.

Sterling continued struggling to attract support following Thursday’s UK GDP figures. Although the British economy posted solid growth during the first half of 2026, there are increasing concerns that this rate of expansion could be hard to maintain through the remainder of the year.

The Pound was once again short of direction on Friday, as GBP fluctuated without settling into a clear trend.

Meanwhile, the commodity-sensitive Canadian Dollar (CAD) faced uneven movement last week amid some volatility in the oil market, but ultimately the currency trended higher as crude prices climbed.

Brent oil – the global benchmark for oil prices – surged on Monday and then broke above $90 per barrel on Tuesday and again on Wednesday.

The rise in oil prices came amid simmering tensions in the Middle East, where the prospect of an imminent peace deal between the US and Iran has faded once again.

However, crude prices eased back towards the end of the week, seeing CAD trim its gains.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: UK and Canadian Inflation Figures in Focus Looking ahead, several key UK data releases are likely to shape Sterling’s performance this week.

Tuesday’s employment figures will be the first major test, with relatively healthy labour market conditions over the three months to June potentially giving the currency a lift.

Attention will then turn to Wednesday’s consumer price index figures. A rise in inflation in line with expectations for July could strengthen bets on Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes, potentially giving the Pound additional support.

The week rounds off on Friday with July’s retail sales figures and the preliminary PMIs for August. A disappointing retail performance could put pressure on GBP, although continued strength across the services sector could limit any downside.

As for the Canadian Dollar, the week kicks off with Canada’s latest inflation figures on Monday. If inflation cooled in July, as expected, CAD could weaken.

A forecast 0.5% contraction in Canadian retail sales in July could add to the pressure on the ‘Loonie’ on Friday.

Meanwhile, oil price dynamics could drive volatility in CAD exchange rates.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes GBP/USD invalidated a recent neutral call by breaking above 1.3555 and closing higher near 1.3532. Intraday, the British Pound (GBP) may extend toward 1.3570, with 1.3600 as firm resistance. Over the next 1–3 weeks, the upside bias remains intact while above 1.3495, though gains are expected to stall near 1.3600.

Sterling maintains constructive upside bias"24-HOUR VIEW: We expected GBP “to trade between 1.3475 and 1.3515” last Friday. We were incorrect, as GBP soared to a high of 1.3561 before pulling back to close at 1.3532 (+0.33%). While upward momentum has slowed somewhat with the pullback, GBP could rise further toward 1.3570. We do not expect the major resistance at 1.3600 to come into view. To keep the momentum going, GBP must hold above 1.3510, with minor support at 1.3525."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: After holding a slightly positive GBP view for about two weeks, we revised our view to neutral last Friday (14 Aug, spot at 1.3490). We highlighted that “upward momentum has largely faded.” We also highlighted that “for the time being, GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3440 and 1.3540.” Our shift in view was premature, as GBP rose sharply, breaking above the major resistance at 1.3555 (high was 1.3561). While we would have preferred a more decisive break above 1.3555, the move is sufficient to indicate that the upward bias remains intact. That said, any advance is expected to face firm resistance at 1.3600. Overall, only a breach of 1.3495 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that GBP is not ready to move toward 1.3600."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

The Pound-Euro rate could retest recent highs if UK inflation strengthens BoE rate expectations, while softer German sentiment may keep the Euro on the defensive.
The Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate rose to a 19-day high last week, but trimmed its gains towards the end of trade.

At the time of writing, GBP/EUR was trading at €1.1701, up around 0.2% on the week.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to Euro (GBP/EUR): 1.17017 (+0.04%)

Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.353854 (+0.04%)

Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.156972 (-0.01%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) opened the week with gains, as Sterling edged higher despite no obvious catalyst behind the move.

With little in the way of fresh economic data on Tuesday and Wednesday, GBP lacked a clear source of momentum and drifted within a narrow range. However, it managed to firm against weaker peers.

Thursday’s UK GDP figures also failed to provide Sterling with a meaningful boost. While the British economy recorded solid growth during the first half of 2026, concerns are growing that this pace of expansion may prove difficult to sustain over the rest of the year.

The Pound again lacked direction on Friday, with GBP moving without establishing a firm trend.

Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) weakened against the rising Pound on Monday as the currency’s inverse trading relationship with the rising US Dollar (USD) pressured EUR.

The common currency was then subdued through Tuesday and Wednesday, touching a 19-day low against the Pound midweek.

However, EUR regained some ground on Thursday thanks to better-than-expected Eurozone industrial production figures.

EUR ended the week without much support, with weaker-than-forecast German wholesale prices leaving the currency subdued.

Near-Term GBP/EUR Forecast: UK CPI Figures to Boost Sterling?
The Pound faces a busy run of UK economic releases this week, with the latest jobs figures due on Tuesday. A relatively robust labour market over the three months to June could provide Sterling with some support.

Wednesday brings the UK’s latest consumer price index figures, which could offer another boost to GBP. If inflation accelerated as expected in July, this could strengthen expectations for Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hikes and lend the Pound some upward momentum.

The week concludes on Friday with July’s retail sales data and the preliminary PMIs for August. Weak retail activity could weigh on GBP, although resilient services sector growth this month may help to cushion any losses.

Meanwhile, Germany’s ZEW economic index on Tuesday is the first major release for the Euro. A forecast deterioration in August could dent EUR.

A speech from European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde on Wednesday and the bank’s latest meeting minutes on Thursday could then support the Euro if there are any hints of a coming rate hike.

The week closes with the Eurozone’s own PMI results. Subdued activity could mute EUR movement.

Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Brown Brothers Harriman’s (BBH) Elias Haddad says improving United Kingdom (UK) disinflation alongside solid Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) should support the British Pound (GBP) against the US Dollar (USD) and Euro (EUR), but sees limited scope for a lasting rally. With spare capacity allowing markets to trim Bank of England (BoE) hike expectations, upcoming labour, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales data are expected to broadly match BoE projections.

Disinflation supports but caps Pound"Signs the UK disinflation trend is gaining traction, following the recent solid Q2 real GDP print, would improve the growth-inflation mix and underpin GBP vs. USD and EUR. However, ample spare capacity in the UK economy leaves room for markets to trim BoE rate hike bets (60bps in the next twelve months) and argues against a sustained GBP rally."

"UK June labor market to show wage growth slowing (Tuesday). The unemployment rate is expected to dip to 4.8% vs. 4.9% in May and the policy-relevant private sector regular pay growth is seen slowing to 2.8% y/y vs. 2.9% in May. If so, both data would match the Bank of England’s forecast."

"UK July CPI to show underlying inflation easing (Wednesday). Headline CPI is expected at 2.9% y/y (BoE projection: 2.8%) vs. 2.6% in June, core CPI is seen at 2.5% y/y vs. 2.6% in June, and services CPI is projected at 3.4% (BoE projection: 3.4%) vs. 3.6% in June."

"UK July retail sales are set for payback after two unusually strong months (Friday). Total retail sales volumes are expected to fall -0.4% m/m vs. 1.0% in June."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Silver (XAG/USD) trades on a strong footing on Monday, reaching levels above $65.80 at the European session opening times, after bouncing from the $63.50 area on Friday. Precious metals are being boosted by US Dollar (USD) weakness, as recent US macroeconomic data has curbed hopes of Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes this year.

US data released on Friday endorsed this view, as July's Retail Sales dropped 0.6% against market expectations of a 0.1% gain, following a 0.2% increase in June. These figures follow relatively soft producer and consumer price figures released earlier in the week and another disappointment in Nonfarm Payrolls in the previous week. Against this background, investors have dialed back bets of a Fed hike in September to 30%, from above 50% one week ago, according to data by the CME Group's FedWatch Tool.

Technical Analysis: Key resistance is at the $67.00 area

XAG/USD reached the target of a bullish Head & Shoulders pattern at the $67.00 area last week, and has been consolidating ever since, with bearish attempts limited above previous highs, at $63.30. The pair, thus, holds a constructive near-term pattern and momentum indicators in the daily chart remain within bullish territory. The Relative Strength Index (14) is hovering above 60, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line maintains a firm positive reading near 0.81, highlighting persistent upside pressure.

Bulls remain capped below the $66.00 area on Monday, which is closing the path towards the June 22 high, at $67.17. Further up, there is a heavier supply zone defined by the June 17 high, at $71.56, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $71.70.

On the downside, the mentioned $63.30 area is expected to challenge bears, ahead of the August 6 and 7 lows, around $62.00 and the late July lows, in the mid-range of the $56.00s.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers at the start of a new week, though it lacks bearish conviction and shows some resilience below the 159.00 mark during the Asian session. Moreover, spot prices remain close to a two-week top, touched last Thursday, warranting some caution amid mixed fundamental cues.

The US Dollar (USD) remains depressed amid receding Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike expectations, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the USD/JPY pair. However, Japan's soft Q2 GDP print complicates the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy normalization path and holds back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets on the Japanese Yen (JPY). This should lend support to the currency pair and warrants some caution before positioning for deeper losses.

From a technical perspective, the recent recovery from the 155.25-155.20 area, or the lowest since early May, stalled near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the intervention-led slump from a four-decade peak. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits near a neutral 48, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped into negative territory, hinting that upside momentum is fading as the USD/JPY pair consolidates below these clustered resistance levels.

That said, some follow-through selling below the 38.2% Fibo. retracement support at 158.58 is needed to back the case for deeper losses to the Fibonacci floor at 157.30 and the broader structural low around 155.24, where buyers would be expected to show more conviction.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 50% Fibo. retracement at 159.61, followed by the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart at 159.77. Sustained strength above these would open the way toward the 61.8% retracement at 160.64 and then the recent cycle high near 163.98.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Japanese Yen Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the US Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.14%-0.13%-0.16%-0.09%-0.33%-0.36%-0.24%EUR0.14%-0.01%-0.02%0.04%-0.17%-0.23%-0.10%GBP0.13%0.00%-0.02%0.04%-0.15%-0.23%-0.09%JPY0.16%0.02%0.02%0.07%-0.18%-0.21%-0.06%CAD0.09%-0.04%-0.04%-0.07%-0.24%-0.28%-0.14%AUD0.33%0.17%0.15%0.18%0.24%-0.05%0.05%NZD0.36%0.23%0.23%0.21%0.28%0.05%0.13%CHF0.24%0.10%0.09%0.06%0.14%-0.05%-0.13%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 530.20 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 528.39 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,184.06 per tola from SAR 6,163.01 per tola on Friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in SAR

1 Gram

530.20

10 Grams

5,301.80

Tola

6,184.06

Troy Ounce

16,491.20

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

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The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Pakistan Gold price today: Gold rises, according to FXStreet data

Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

The price for Gold stood at 575.44 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 573.84 it cost on Friday.

The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,711.83 per tola from MYR 6,693.20 per tola on friday.

Unit measure

Gold Price in MYR

1 Gram

575.44

10 Grams

5,754.41

Tola

6,711.83

Troy Ounce

17,898.18

FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

Gold (XAU/USD) builds on Friday's bounce from the $4,300 neighborhood, or a one-week low, and gains some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The commodity, however, struggles to capitalize on the momentum beyond the $4,400 mark and remains below its highest level since June 5, touched on Friday, amid mixed fundamental cues.

Data released on Friday showed that US Retail Sales dropped 0.6% in July, marking the first fall in nine months and the biggest monthly decline since May last year. Adding to this, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index dipped in August to 51 from 55.2 in the previous month. This comes on top of signs of cooling US inflation and further tempers expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which continues to undermine the US Dollar (USD) and lends support to the non-yielding bullion.

Investors, however, remain worried that volatile energy prices could complicate the inflation outlook and force the Fed to stick to a hawkish stance. Moreover, persistent geopolitical uncertainties help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven USD, capping the upside for the Gold price. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the US is preparing to hit Iran with economic measures that have never been seen, as soon as this week. This, along with the US-Iran standoff, keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and should support the buck.

In other developments, President Donald Trump said that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” Meanwhile, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that the US must agree to Tehran's conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway and that there were no negotiations currently taking place. Apart from this, fresh Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries remain supportive of higher oil prices, keeping inflation fears and bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 on the table.

According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are still pricing in around a 65% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs by the end of this year. This, in turn, warrants some caution for USD bears and before positioning for any further appreciating move in the Gold price as traders await further cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday. Apart from this, the incoming geopolitical headlines might influence the USD and the precious metal.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the $4,400 mark, or the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline, warrant some caution for XAU/USD bulls. Moreover, the precious metal remains below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), keeping the broader tone capped despite the recent recovery.

Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.43 leans toward bullish momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stays in positive territory. Improving momentum indicators, however, only hint that buyers are attempting a rebound within a still bearish, resistance-heavy backdrop.

Nevertheless, sustained strength and acceptance above the $4,400 mark (50% retracement level) should allow the Gold price to test the 200-day SMA near $4,506 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,509. Further barriers are seen at the 78.6% Fibo level at $4,666 and the cycle high zone at $4,865.

On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,290, ahead of the 23.6% level at $4,154, while a deeper slide would expose the structural floor around the Fibonacci anchor near $3,935.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Fed FAQs

Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.

In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

Key Points:Weak U.S. retail sales reduced Fed rate hike expectations and supported gold.Gold must break above $4,500 to target the $5,000 area.Silver must clear $72 to open the way toward $90.

In this article:Gold

+0.41%

Gold ForecastSilver

+1.25%

Silver ForecastGold (XAU) price found some support during the Asian trading on Monday and rose to $4,395. The softer US retail sales and easing inflation reduced the hopes of another Federal Reserve rate hike. The retail sales declined by 0.6% in July, which is much lower than the projected 0.1% increase. The data weakened the U.S. dollar and the Treasury yields, which pushed the price of gold higher. The markets now expect only 33.1% chance of a September rate hike. Moreover, the safe haven demand is fueled by tensions between the United States and Iran.

A weaker dollar and lower interest rate expectations may also support silver (XAG). But the sharp drop in retail sales suggests less consumer activity. This may raise concerns about the industrial demand that plays a larger role in silver than in gold. Silver could move higher in the short term following gold but the concerns about a decline in economic activity may limit the rally.

Gold Price Forecast: Break Above $4,500 Targets $5,000
The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has formed constructive price action above $3,900 and reached the resistance of the 200-day SMA in the $4,500 area. The key reversal candle on Friday indicates positive momentum in the short term. But a break below $4,300 will likely push the gold price further toward $4,200.

As long as the $4,000 support holds, the possibility of an upside breakout above $4,500 is high. A break above the $4,500 region will open the door for a strong rally toward the $5,000 area. This target is defined by the resistance line of the descending broadening wedge pattern. A break above $5,000 will confirm that the bottom is in and will keep the strong rally in the gold market intact.

The 4-hour chart for spot gold also shows that the price has already broken out of the descending wedge pattern. The price is now moving toward $4,500, the key resistance level in the short term.

Silver Price Forecast: Break Above $72 Targets $90
The daily chart for spot silver also shows constructive price action above the $64 support after the breakout. The price has now moved out of the primary support region and is looking for a rally toward $72 in the short term. But if the price fails to hold the $64 support, it may drop further toward $60.

The key resistance for spot silver remains the $72 area which is also intersected by the 200-day SMA. A break above $72 will push the price toward the $89 area for spot silver. The 4-hour chart for spot silver also shows constructive price action within the descending wedge pattern. The immediate resistance remains in the $70-$72 area. A break above this level will likely push the silver price toward the $90 area.

Bottom Line
Gold and silver remain supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, lower Treasury yields and reduced expectations for Fed rate hike. Gold could extend the recovery if it breaks above $4,500 while a move below $4,300 may trigger another decline. Silver must hold above $64 and break the $70-$72 resistance zone to continue higher. However, weaker consumer activity could limit silver due to its strong link to industrial demand.

Read more: AI Boom Puts $100 Silver Back in Sight

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Muhammad Umair is a finance MBA and engineering PhD. As a seasoned financial analyst specializing in currencies and precious metals, he combines his multidisciplinary academic background to deliver a data-driven, contrarian perspective. As founder of Gold Predictors, he leads a team providing advanced market analytics, quantitative research, and refined precious metals trading strategies.

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Editors’ Picks

EUR/JPY depreciates after two days of gains, trading around 184.20 during the Asian hours on Monday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the spot remains within a rising wedge, signaling that the upward trend is losing momentum and that the wedge typically acts as a bearish reversal.

The EUR/JPY cross retains a constructive near-term tone as it holds above the nine-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), keeping price supported despite last week's pullback from the highs. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 50 suggests neutral momentum after the prior correction, hinting that directional conviction is still tentative while the broader uptrend structure remains intact.

The EUR/JPY cross tests the immediate support at the lower boundary of the rising wedge around 184.10, followed by the nine-day EMA of 183.78. A decisive break below this confluence support zone would revive the bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its eight-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3. If downward momentum continues, the next key technical target lies at the nine-month low of 175.70.

On the upside, the primary resistance lies at its 50-day EMA near 184.49, followed by the upper boundary of the rising wedge around 185.80. A sustained break above the wedge could signal a broader bullish resurgence, opening the path for the currency cross to retest the area surrounding its all-time peak of 187.95 set on April 17.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.09%-0.14%-0.04%-0.13%-0.22%-0.18%EUR0.08%-0.04%-0.07%0.02%-0.03%-0.15%-0.09%GBP0.09%0.04%-0.02%0.05%0.02%-0.12%-0.06%JPY0.14%0.07%0.02%0.10%0.02%-0.08%-0.01%CAD0.04%-0.02%-0.05%-0.10%-0.08%-0.18%-0.13%AUD0.13%0.03%-0.02%-0.02%0.08%-0.10%-0.10%NZD0.22%0.15%0.12%0.08%0.18%0.10%0.05%CHF0.18%0.09%0.06%0.01%0.13%0.10%-0.05% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

Silver (XAG/USD) is seen building on Friday's bounce from mid-$63.00s and gaining some follow-through positive traction at the start of a new week. The white metal, however, continues with its struggle to break above the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and currently trades above mid-$65.00s, up around 1.50% for the day.

The US Dollar (USD) selling bias remains unabated as traders continue to scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets amid signs of cooling US inflation and weak consumer spending. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor underpinning demand for USD-denominated commodities, including the XAG/USD, and backs the case for further gains.

From a broader technical perspective, the XAG/USD has been oscillating in a familiar range over the past week or so. This could be categorized as a bullish consolidation phase against the backdrop of a goodish recovery from the year-to-date low, touched in July, and the recent breakout through the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the May-July downfall.

Moreover, momentum indicators stay constructive as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 61, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram holds in positive territory. This suggests that upside attempts could persist even as the XAG/USD struggles to make it through the 100-day EMA pivotal resistance near the $66.33 area.

The said barrier is followed by the 38.2% Fibo. level at $67.93. A sustained move above the said levels would be needed to pave the way for further gains toward the mid-range Fibonacci hurdle at $72.02. On the downside, initial support is aligned with the 23.6% Fibo. near $62.87, where a break would expose the lower anchor of the current swing near $54.70.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

XAG/USD daily chart

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7873 compared to Friday's fix of 6.7878 and 6.7382 Reuters estimate.

PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.

The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.

Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.

Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

Gold price (XAU/USD) gains momentum to around $4,395 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal extends the rally as cooling US inflation data has dampened expectations for the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. 

The US Census Bureau revealed on Friday that US Retail Sales declined by 0.6% MoM in July. This figure followed a rise of 0.2% in June and came in softer than the 0.1% expected. On an annual basis, Retail Sales increased 5.0% in July versus a rise of 6.8% (revised from 6.7%).

This report added to evidence that inflationary pressure is gradually easing after last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data. This, in turn, weighs on the US Dollar (USD) and underpins the USD-denominated commodity price.  

Money markets have priced in nearly a 33.1% chance of a September Fed hike, according to the CME FedWatch tool. It’s worth noting that lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, boosting its investment appeal. 

On the other hand, persistent tensions in the Middle East might cap the upside for the yellow metal. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi called on the US to “accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in delusions” after US President Donald Trump suggested that he would soon declare the Strait of Hormuz a “territory of the United States.” 

On Friday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that there were “no negotiations currently taking place between Tehran and Washington.” Araghchi added that the US must agree to Iran’s conditions in order for shipping to resume through the waterway.

Gold outlook stays constructive as Fed hike expectations fade and ETF demand returnsAnalysts at Commerzbank argue that the backdrop for bullion remains supportive, noting that, “as we expect the Fed not to raise interest rates, the gold price therefore still has further upside potential.” They caution that the path higher is unlikely to be smooth, pointing out that “the fact that this will not happen in a straight line is illustrated by the price fall since yesterday to USD 4,320 per troy ounce.” At the same time, Commerzbank highlights that “another positive factor for the price of gold is the renewed buying interest from ETF investors,” which they see as reinforcing the constructive medium-term outlook for the metal.

Technical Analysis: The positive tone of Gold remains intactIn the daily chart, XAU/USD holds just above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and comfortably over the 20-day Bollinger middle band near, keeping the near-term bias constructive while these layers of trend support remain intact. The Relative Strength Index (14) at 64.09 leans toward bullish but not yet overbought territory, suggesting buyers still have room to probe higher levels within the prevailing range.

On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the upper Bollinger band at $4,480, where recent volatility extremes are likely to attract profit-taking. On the downside, the immediate floor is defined by the 100-day SMA at $4,385.85, with a deeper corrective cushion emerging around the Bollinger middle band at roughly $4,195; a break below that area would expose the lower band support near $3,905.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver (SILVERU2026): Arc cycle analysisOverview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 1h chart, Silver is interacting with the 0.5 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is testing this Resistance Arc, suggesting the potential for a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc.

Metric

Reading

 Market bias

Bullish Acceleration

 Preferred scenario

Potential Breakout / Advance Toward the Next Resistance Arc

 Primary target zone

66.30

 Scenario invalidation

Sustained close below $64.70

 Current arc level

Resistance Arc (0.5)

 Cycle status

Testing Resistance Arc

 Arc integrity

Weakening

Market outlookPrice is testing the 0.5 Resistance Arc, where continued buying pressure could result in a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc. A sustained breakout above the Resistance Arc would support continued movement toward the next Resistance Arc (0.618 Arc).

Conversely, failure to achieve a sustained 1h close above the Resistance Arc would invalidate the bullish scenario and could shift the outlook toward the next Support Arc.

AUD/USD extended its rally to a seventh consecutive week, although momentum remains far from convincing. RBA and Fed rate expectations are finely balanced, leaving Thursday's Australian employment report as the main domestic event.

The Gold price has already recovered sharply in August, but UBS's forecast path points beyond the rebound, with bullion reaching $5,000 next March and $5,200 by June. The Gold price (XAU/USD) closed the week around $4,376 after a powerful August rebound that has taken bullion back towards the upper end of its recent range.

Gold has gained 8.3% so far this month, recovering from an August low near $4,024 and reaching as high as $4,443.

UBS is looking considerably further ahead.

Its latest global forecasts put gold at $4,400 in September 2026, followed by $4,600 in December, $5,000 in March 2027 and $5,200 by June 2027.

The shape of that forecast is as important as the final number.

At current prices, UBS's September target offers little immediate upside.

The bank is effectively allowing for gold to consolidate around present levels before another leg higher develops later in the forecast period.

Image: Gold price in USD on month chart Gold has climbed almost 8% over the past month, moving from below $4,000 at the July low to around $4,376.

The heavier lifting begins towards year-end.

A move to $4,600 in December would take gold clearly above its current August trading range, while the jump to $5,000 next March would put bullion back into territory last seen during the extraordinary swings earlier in 2026.

The $5,200 June forecast is more striking still.

Gold has already traded above that level this year, reaching a 2026 high close to $5,594 in January, but much of that advance was subsequently unwound.

By June, prices had fallen below $4,000 before stabilising and beginning the latest recovery.

Gold Outlook: UBS Sees the Recovery Extending Into 2027 Image: Gold price in USD yar-to-date chart Gold remains far below its January peak despite the August recovery, illustrating how much volatility has accompanied this year's broader repricing.

That distinction matters when interpreting UBS's $5,200 call.

The forecast does not require gold to make unprecedented new highs from here.

It instead assumes that the deep correction from the first-quarter peak eventually gives way to a renewed climb back towards the upper part of this year's range.

The current price around $4,376 is only modestly above where gold began 2026, despite enormous moves in between.

The year-to-date chart has been anything but a straight-line bull market.

UBS's forecast is similarly not about an immediate surge.

September is essentially flat from here. December brings a more meaningful rise.

The stronger bullish conviction appears in 2027, when the bank sees gold breaking $5,000 again and reaching $5,200 by June.

After the volatility of 2026, that is a bullish forecast with patience built into it.