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Malaysia Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens to near 113.50, near-term outlook remain constructive

Gold (XAU/USD) attracts some sellers following a modest Asian session uptick on Tuesday, stalling a two-day move higher from the $4,300 neighborhood. The US Dollar (USD) builds on the overnight bounce from a two-month trough as inflation risks stemming from higher crude oil prices underpin prospects for at least one interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in 2026. Adding to this, the US-Iran standoff keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and further underpins the safe-haven Greenback, which, in turn, is seen exerting pressure on the precious metal.

In the latest developments surrounding the Middle East crisis, US President Donald Trump said that Iran should surrender to end a nearly six-month-long war. Trump added that the US is not seeking an extension of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran, which expired on Monday. Furthermore, Trump repeated his idea of declaring the critical Strait of Hormuz as a US territory and warned that he would target Oman if it hindered actions to reopen the strategic waterway. This comes as the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen escalated their campaign against Saudi Arabia.

Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group used several ballistic missiles to target a Saudi military landing ship and four accompanying patrol boats off the coast of Mokha. This could further disrupt commercial shipping traffic through the Bab al-Mandeb Strait – one of the world's most important trade routes – and fuel energy supply concerns, lifting crude oil prices to a two-week high. Investors remain worried that higher energy prices would rekindle inflationary pressures, which, along with hawkish Fed expectations, remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields.

According to TD Securities, the Fed is likely to "remain on hold over our forecast horizon," with the policy stance anchored by the view that "inflation should remain high for the rest of the year" and that "the labor market has stabilized, allowing the FOMC to shift focus to its inflation mandate." The bank adds that, "if the Fed were to move this year, we believe that move is more likely to be a hike than a cut," noting that under "a new management that espouses a blurrier reaction function, data dependence will likely gain prominence for determining the path ahead for monetary policy."

This offsets last week's soft US inflation and Retail Sales data, which forced investors to scale back their bets for an imminent Fed rate hike. According to CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders are assigning around a 64% chance that the US central bank will keep rates unchanged at the September 2026 meeting. Investors, however, are still pricing in a greater possibility that the Fed will raise borrowing costs at least once by the end of this year. The outlook helps revive demand for the Greenback and prompts some intraday selling around the non-yielding Gold, though the downside seems limited.

Traders might refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's future policy path. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes on Wednesday, which will play a key role in influencing the near-term USD price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the precious metal. In the meantime, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before positioning for any further depreciation.

XAU/USD daily chart

Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, the precious metal continues its struggle to find acceptance above the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline. Momentum indicators, however, stay constructive. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63.47 holds in bullish territory, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains positive, hinting that selling pressure is corrective rather than impulsive. However, it will still be prudent to wait for a move beyond last week's swing high, around $4,450, before positioning for further gains toward the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,508.

On the downside, first support is seen at the 38.2% retracement at $4,302.33, with further demand expected at the 23.6% level at $4,164.44 and then around the structural floor anchored near $3,941.54, where buyers would likely attempt to arrest a deeper correction.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.04%0.02%0.03%-0.05%-0.07%0.15%0.03%EUR-0.04%-0.01%0.00%-0.08%-0.08%0.11%0.00%GBP-0.02%0.01%0.00%-0.07%-0.08%0.13%0.02%JPY-0.03%0.00%0.00%-0.08%-0.09%0.12%0.00%CAD0.05%0.08%0.07%0.08%-0.02%0.20%0.09%AUD0.07%0.08%0.08%0.09%0.02%0.21%0.10%NZD-0.15%-0.11%-0.13%-0.12%-0.20%-0.21%-0.10%CHF-0.03%-0.00%-0.02%-0.01%-0.09%-0.10%0.10% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Silver price (XAG/USD) declines after two days of gains, trading around $65.60 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Silver prices fall as traders remain wary of potential inflation risks as prospects for a new diplomatic agreement between the US and Iran dimmed following statements from both sides.

US President Donald Trump indicated he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal, citing the ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports as evidence of Washington's leverage and reiterating his proposal to declare the critical waterway as US territory under total American control. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei asserted that an agreement remains elusive due to security complexities and the "obstructionist behavior of destructive elements," insisting that the US must first lift its blockade.

However, Silver prices could rebound amid fading expectations for further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). A recent, unexpected decline in July US Nonfarm Payrolls, combined with last week's modest consumer price inflation data, has significantly reduced market anticipation of a monetary tightening next month.

Consequently, expectations for a Fed rate hike at the upcoming policy meeting have dropped to 35%, down from 47% a month earlier, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors are now looking ahead to the release of the minutes from the Fed’s July meeting.

According to strategists at TD Securities, a confluence of macro factors has driven a notable repositioning in precious metals. They highlight that “the combination of modest inflation, a lackluster U.S. employment environment, little market concern that oil will have another major rally, along with prices moving convincingly into a higher trading range prompted money managers to aggressively increase their long gold exposure.” This backdrop, in their view, has encouraged investors to lean more heavily into Gold as prices establish themselves in a stronger trading band.

Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, XAG/USD trades at $65.60, holding a bullish near-term bias as price remains above both the nine-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The alignment of the shorter EMA above the longer one reinforces a constructive trend tone, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 60.51 stays in positive territory without yet signaling overbought conditions, suggesting room for further gains as long as the metal holds above these dynamic supports. The Fed Sentiment Index cooling toward 134.61 hints at a less aggressive policy backdrop for Silver.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the nine-day EMA at $64.27, followed by the 50-day EMA at $63.33, with a more distant structural floor at the horizontal line near $55.63. On the topside, the next notable barrier emerges at the horizontal resistance around $90.03, with the current configuration hinting that dips toward the clustered moving averages may attract buyers while that upper cap remains untested.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7905 vs. 6.7873 previous

Gold gains momentum above $4,400 as softer US data dampens Fed hike odds

EUR/USD Price Forecast: Struggles at 1.1600, dives below 100-day SMA

Standard Chartered targets AUD/USD at 0.74 in three months and 0.75 in a year, with the RBA, China and commodities offering support. The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate is forecast to rise to 0.74 in three months and 0.75 over 12 months by Standard Chartered.

AUD/USD was trading near 0.7114 late on Monday, up about 0.42% on the day and 6.66% in 2026.

AUD/USD six-month closing-price chart with 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The RBA remains a key support “The RBA's decision to hold its official cash rate at 4.35% was accompanied by a hawkish policy message,” Standard Chartered said.

That message reinforces the prospect that Australian interest rates remain restrictive for longer, while Governor Michele Bullock has repeated that rates could rise again if required.

The bank also identifies a softer US Dollar, improving Chinese growth momentum and supportive commodity conditions as tailwinds for the Australian currency.

Gold supplies an additional, but explicitly secondary, signal.

Standard Chartered calculates that the correlation between XAU/USD and AUD/USD has risen to +0.82 over three months, compared with +0.59 over three years.

“The 0.23-point gap shows that gold and the AUD have moved much more closely together recently,” the report said.

That observation does not show that a higher gold price causes AUD/USD to rise.

Both markets can respond to the same forces, including the Dollar, global risk appetite and commodity demand.

Standard Chartered therefore cautions that “gold should still be treated as a supporting indicator rather than the primary AUD driver.”

The distinction keeps the forecast anchored in Australian and global macro conditions rather than a single cross-asset relationship.

Near-term price action is consistent with a constructive bias, but the distance to 0.74 remains meaningful.

From 0.7114, the three-month target requires a gain of roughly 4%, while the 0.75 one-year target implies an advance of just over 5%.

If gold's short-run correlation falls back towards its longer-term average, Standard Chartered's own framing suggests that would weaken a supporting signal rather than invalidate the entire forecast.

The one-year horizon also gives the bank more time for China and commodity demand to offset any short-lived change in the Dollar.

The first checkpoint is 0.74 in three months; reaching it requires the RBA and external demand to remain supportive even if the gold correlation normalises.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold fund flows have turned positive after months of outflows, while Goldman says private activity is becoming more closely tied to gold prices. Goldman Sachs says gold-fund flows have “picked up meaningfully after seeing net outflows for much of this year.”

Its analysis also finds that the relationship between fund activity and gold prices has strengthened since the start of 2025 as private-sector buying and selling increased.

Private buyers matter more than they did That observation describes a changing market structure; it is not a new Goldman price target and it does not prove that flows alone caused the latest move.

The Goldman series covers mutual funds and related investment products, so it measures one defined channel of demand rather than every physical, futures or official-sector transaction.

Gold was trading near $4,426.70 late on Monday, up about 1.26% on the day and more than 10% over one month.

Gold daily closing prices in US Dollars over three months, with 20-day and 50-day moving averages. The metal has still fallen over three and six months, making the renewed fund demand notable against a volatile recent path.

ERUK market data put gold's one-year gain near 33%, but its 2026 advance at only about 2.5%.

That contrast leaves long-term holders with substantial gains while showing why a renewed private-fund bid can matter after months of uneven momentum.

BofA's flow data corroborate the shift.

“Gold: $6.3bn inflow, biggest since Jan '26,” the bank reported, adding that precious-metals funds had received inflows for six consecutive weeks.

In the same weekly cross-asset tally, cash drew $25.4bn, bonds $23.8bn, stocks $16.1bn and crypto $0.3bn.

Gold therefore remained smaller than the main cash, bond and equity channels, but its inflow stood out against both crypto and its own recent history.

BofA measures the latest weekly surge; Goldman's analysis instead shows how private fund activity is becoming more closely associated with price.

The current rally offers an immediate test of whether that association persists.

The gold price advance in August has taken it above $4,400, while Monday's move put the market close to the month's high.

The stronger correlation is backward-looking, so it records how fund activity and prices have moved together rather than forecasting either direction.

The change is one of market participation, not a new price target.

Another large inflow would support the case for a lasting private-sector return; a reversal would leave the $6.3bn week looking like an August outlier.

Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Silver has experienced a wild ride in 2026, but The Silver Institute President and CEO Michael DiRienzo says investors shouldn’t let the volatility obscure a much bigger story: the underlying silver market remains remarkably strong.

DiRienzo joined Money Metals podcast host Mike Maharrey to discuss silver’s dramatic price swings, persistent supply deficits, industrial demand, solar energy, artificial intelligence, investment flows, and the metal’s expanding role in medicine.

His central message was straightforward. Silver is no longer the $13 or $15 metal investors remember from less than a decade ago. In DiRienzo’s view, the market has established substantially higher floors because silver is increasingly being valued for both its industrial utility and its investment potential.

From $121 Silver back to $65Silver surged to roughly $121 an ounce on January 29, 2026, before falling sharply alongside gold. By the morning of Maharrey’s interview with DiRienzo, silver was trading around $65 per ounce.

DiRienzo said the late-February outbreak of war in Iran put additional pressure on precious metals. Interestingly, he noted that gold and silver have tended to respond positively to announcements involving ceasefires or the reopening of the straits, suggesting the conflict has been weighing on the precious metals complex rather than providing the traditional geopolitical boost investors might expect.

But underneath the geopolitical turmoil, DiRienzo sees strong fundamentals.

He noted that just two years ago, predicting an average 2026 silver price above $72 to $75 per ounce would have sounded extraordinary. Yet the market has reached precisely that neighborhood this year.

Mining companies have also benefited substantially from higher prices. DiRienzo said second-quarter figures being reported by mining companies were broadly positive, including among Silver Institute members producing silver both as a primary product and as a byproduct.

Industrial demand remains a powerful forceIndustrial demand remains one of the most important pillars supporting silver.

The Silver Institute expects a small decline in industrial demand this year, driven in part by reduced silver consumption in photovoltaics. With silver prices elevated, solar manufacturers have an obvious incentive to reduce the amount of silver they use or substitute another material.

Doing so, however, isn't simple.

Silver has the highest electrical conductivity of any metal, and the process of screen-printing silver paste onto solar cells is already mature and highly efficient. Alternative materials and metallization technologies still face hurdles before they can compete with silver at scale.

Copper metallization exists, for example, but DiRienzo said it has yet to scale sufficiently to replace silver across the solar industry. For solar farms designed to operate for 25 years, manufacturers also have to consider silver's reliability, durability, and stability rather than simply its upfront cost.

Solar’s Silver appetite has explodedThe scale of silver consumption in solar has changed dramatically over the past decade.

DiRienzo said solar represented about 11% of total silver industrial demand in 2014. By 2024, its share had climbed to just under 30%, marking the peak year for silver consumption in solar to date.

The industry is now attempting to engineer some silver out of its cells as prices rise. But manufacturers were already trying to reduce silver consumption when the metal traded for only $13 per ounce.

As DiRienzo explained, manufacturers relentlessly pursue even tiny savings. Reducing costs by two, three, or four cents per solar cell can matter when production is measured in enormous volumes.

That means efforts to thrift silver will continue. But DiRienzo doesn't foresee silver disappearing from photovoltaics the way photographic demand largely disappeared with the transition to digital photography.

AI could become another major Silver demand driverArtificial intelligence represents another potentially significant source of future silver demand.

The AI boom requires an enormous physical infrastructure of data centers filled with electrical contacts, wiring, and other components that can use silver.

DiRienzo said data centers have grown by more than 6,000% in just three years. The Silver Institute has already examined silver's role in AI data centers and other emerging technologies in a report on silver as a “next generation metal.”

The precise amount of silver being consumed by AI infrastructure remains difficult to quantify. DiRienzo acknowledged that the Institute is hearing about increased consumption but doesn't yet have firm numbers.

The direction, however, appears clear to him. With AI infrastructure still in its infancy and data-center installations expanding around the world, DiRienzo expects silver demand from this sector to increase.

Higher Gold prices are also affecting jewelrySilver may also be benefiting indirectly from gold's elevated price.

DiRienzo pointed to examples of jewelry made primarily from silver and then plated with gold, providing the appearance of gold while using silver as the underlying metal.

Jewelry demand remains highly price-sensitive because it is fundamentally a discretionary purchase. DiRienzo also highlighted an interesting demographic trend: more women between the ages of 24 and 30 are buying silver jewelry globally.

The Silver Institute expects overall silver jewelry demand this year to remain relatively consistent with last year's level.

Higher prices can't quickly produce more SilverThe supply side of the market presents a very different challenge.

A silver miner can't simply flip a switch and dramatically increase production because prices have risen. DiRienzo noted that some of the mining taking place today traces back to plans made 10 years ago, in 2016.

Mining companies are spending more on exploration, but DiRienzo said they aren't doing so recklessly. Much of the activity appears concentrated around existing projects as companies search for additional or previously unidentified veins.

That means substantially higher silver prices aren't necessarily going to unleash a flood of new supply anytime soon.

Mine production increased about 3% in 2025, but the Silver Institute expects production to decline 0.3% in 2026.

A Sixth consecutive Silver market deficitThe supply constraint becomes particularly important when considered alongside persistent demand.

The Silver Institute expects the silver market to record its sixth consecutive annual structural deficit in 2026. DiRienzo estimated the shortfall at roughly 46 million to 50 million ounces, although it could become larger if demand strengthens.

Recycling will help. The Institute expects recycled silver supply to increase by roughly 7% this year.

It still won't be enough.

Even after incorporating recycling into total supply, DiRienzo expects demand to exceed supply again in 2026.

A market deficit doesn't mean the world has literally run out of silver. It means annual demand is exceeding annual newly available supply, forcing the market to draw on above-ground inventories.

And those inventories aren't necessarily as freely available as headline figures might suggest.

The Silver sitting in vaults isn't necessarily availableDiRienzo used London inventories to illustrate the problem.Suppose London Bullion Market Association vaults contain approximately 750 million ounces of silver. That sounds like an enormous stockpile.

But DiRienzo estimated that roughly 75% of that silver is already allocated to exchange-traded products around the world.

That leaves a much smaller pool of readily available metal — and accessing that remaining “free float” can be extremely price sensitive.

The consequences became apparent when tariff concerns caused silver to move from London and elsewhere into New York ahead of the April 2, 2025, “Liberation Day” tariff announcement.

Precious metals ultimately weren't included in the tariffs, but the episode demonstrated how quickly physical metal can move when market participants anticipate disruptions.

Maharrey pointed to another example closer to home: Money Metals was shipping 1,000-ounce silver bars to India during the tight market around Diwali.

DiRienzo recalled the episode and noted that silver lease rates subsequently surged as the market became extremely tight.

Could similar silver squeezes happen again?

“Absolutely,” DiRienzo said. “No question about it.”

Silver investment demand could strengthenThe Silver Institute also expects stronger retail investment demand for physical silver.

DiRienzo said demand for silver coins and bars could increase approximately 7% in 2026, despite challenges involving Indian import duties. India has been an especially strong market for silver bars and coins over the past several years.

Exchange-traded products tell another part of the investment story.

Silver ETPs recorded net inflows of approximately 270 million ounces in 2025. The outbreak of war subsequently contributed to liquidations in gold and silver ETPs, with DiRienzo saying silver had experienced outflows of roughly 6% this year.

He added that the Silver Institute was hearing that investment activity was beginning to pick up again.

Medicine shows another side of SilverWhen Maharrey asked DiRienzo to name one of silver's lesser-known applications that he finds particularly interesting, DiRienzo pointed to health and medicine.

Silver's antibacterial properties give it uses throughout healthcare environments. DiRienzo cited silver coatings in operating rooms and on operating tables and instruments, along with silver incorporated into hospital drapes and used alongside cleaning agents.

He also highlighted emerging nanotechnology. The Silver Institute's August edition of Silver News was set to examine how nanosilver can help doctors administer the correct drug dosage.

Silver's antibacterial properties extend beyond hospitals. DiRienzo also cited water purification, pools, and efforts to combat outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease. In these applications, silver can help prevent infection and promote healing.

These applications may represent relatively small amounts of silver compared with solar panels, electronics, or investment products, but they demonstrate just how broad the metal's usefulness has become.

From $15 to more than $70Perhaps the most striking way to understand today's silver market is simply to look backward.

During the interview, DiRienzo opened the World Silver Survey and read off a series of historical average prices.

Silver averaged $17.05 per ounce in 2017. It subsequently averaged $15.71, followed by $16.21 in 2019. By 2023, the average had risen to $23.35, followed by $28.27 in 2024 and approximately $40 in 2025.

In 2026, DiRienzo said the market is talking about an average above $70 per ounce.

That longer-term perspective matters after silver's retreat from its January peak.

At around $65 an ounce during the interview, silver was dramatically below its $121 high. But Maharrey emphasized that it wasn't very long ago that investors were accustomed to silver trading for $13, $14, or $15.

DiRienzo believes the difference reflects a fundamental change in the market.

“We think new floors have been set in the market,” he said. Silver, in his assessment, is now trading on the strength of both its industrial applications and its investment appeal.

A tight market with powerful long-term driversSilver's 2026 correction may dominate short-term investor psychology, but the fundamentals DiRienzo described point toward a much larger story.

The market is heading toward a sixth consecutive structural deficit. Mine production is expected to decline slightly. Recycling is increasing, but not enough to close the gap. Physical investment demand could rise 7%. Solar still consumes enormous amounts of silver despite ongoing thrift efforts. AI infrastructure presents another rapidly growing source of potential demand.

Meanwhile, much of the silver sitting above ground isn't necessarily freely available to the market.

DiRienzo believes 2026 is shaping up to be a remarkable year for the metal. He expects the annual average silver price to set a record, and he sees evidence that the market has established price floors far above those of the previous decade.

Silver may still be volatile. But in DiRienzo's view, today's silver market is fundamentally different from the one investors knew when the metal traded in the teens.

And those fundamentals — industrial demand on one side and investment demand on the other — could continue defining the silver market long after the geopolitical turbulence of 2026 has passed.

After a week of North American traders focusing on the developments in the US (CPI, PPI, Retail Sales), the focus this week shifts north of the 49th parallel.

USD/CHF rebounds on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) recovers from its early losses. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.8112 after touching an intraday low of 0.8072, its lowest level in over a week.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.60 after recovering from 99.30, its lowest level since June 5.

Analysts at MUFG/BTMU point out that the Dollar index “has not yet tested support from the 200-day moving average, which comes in at around 99.20,” underscoring that the broader gauge of Dollar strength is still trading above a key technical level. At the same time, they note that “the run of softer US economic data has encouraged market participants to scale back Fed rate hike expectations,” suggesting that the fundamental backdrop for sustained Dollar strength is becoming less supportive.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF retains a mild bullish bias after reclaiming the key moving averages and the 0.8000 psychological mark in early June. However, price action has since turned largely sideways as momentum indicators soften.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart stands near the neutral 52 level, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator hovers slightly below zero. The Average Directional Index (ADX) at 16 also points to weak trend strength, inting at a consolidative tone rather than a decisive trend continuation.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at the 0.8150 horizontal level, followed by the stronger 0.8200 barrier. A sustained break above 0.8200 could restore bullish momentum and open the door to additional gains.

On the downside, the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8082 offers immediate support, followed by the 0.8000 psychological mark. A break below this area would expose the 100-day SMA at 0.7974 and the 200-day SMA at 0.7932.

Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.

Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.

As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

EUR/USD trims earlier gains on Monday as the US Dollar (USD) shows signs of stabilization after opening the week under selling pressure. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1580 after touching an intraday high of 1.1614, its highest level since June 17.

The Greenback is caught between fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike and tensions in the Middle East, which keep some defensive demand alive and limit the downside.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.57 after touching 99.30, its weakest level since June 5.

Traders no longer expect the Fed to raise interest rates at its September meeting. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now assign around a 70% probability that the central bank will keep rates unchanged next month.

The shift follows recent US economic data pointing to weaker labour demand, softer consumer spending and easing inflationary pressure. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) is widely expected to raise interest rates for the second time this year in September as policymakers seek to bring inflation back toward the 2% target.

On the geopolitical front, the 60-day memorandum of understanding signed by the United States and Iran in June expired on Monday without a permanent agreement, while shipping through the Strait remains heavily restricted.

Against this backdrop, energy-driven inflation risks remain alive. This supports expectations of an ECB rate hike in September while preventing markets from fully ruling out a Fed hike later this year.

Looking ahead, the final Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for July are due on Wednesday. Core HICP inflation is expected to be confirmed at 2.5% YoY.

In the US, traders will examine the Minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, also due on Wednesday, for fresh clues about the Fed’s policy path.

ECB FAQs The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.

Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.

Gold (XAU/USD): Arc cycle analysisOverview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 30-minute chart, Gold (XAUUSD) is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Bullish momentum has faded near this boundary, indicating that the upper Arc continues to cap upside expansion

Metric

Reading

 Market Bias

Neutral-Bearish

 Preferred Scenario

Potential Rejection / Decline Toward Next Support Arc

 Primary Target Zone

4,415

 Scenario Invalidation

Sustained close above $4,428

 Current Arc Level

Resistance Arc (0.618)

 Cycle Status

Testing Resistance Arc

 Arc Integrity

Strong

Market outlookThe 0.618 Arc continues to act as a primary resistance boundary, capping upside expansion. Bullish attempts have stalled beneath the Resistance Arc 0.618, indicating that seller defense remains intact at this cyclical threshold.

If the 0.618 Resistance Arc holds firm, a corrective decline toward the 4,415 becomes the primary scenario.

Conversely, a sustained 30-minute candle close above 4,428 would invalidate the bearish setup, opening the path toward the outer Resistance Arc 0.786.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) registers modest gains of 0.14% on Monday against the US Dollar (USD) as investors digest softer-than-expected US inflation data and brace for the release of crucial UK jobs and inflation data. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3552 after hitting a three-month high of 1.3571. Read More...

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bulls press toward 1.3600 as uptrend strengthensGBP/USD edges higher on Monday as fading expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and lift the British Pound (GBP) to its highest level since May 12. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.3555, building on its late-July recovery after clearing several key moving averages. Read More...

British Pound hits three-month highs at 1.3570 amid generalised US Dollar weaknessThe British Pound (GBP) extends gains for the second consecutive day on Monday, as investors cut back US Dollar (USD) long positions, amid a dovish repricing of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy. The pair has reached levels above Friday’s peak at 1.3561 to hit three-month highs at 1.3571 so far. Read More...

XAU/USD Current price: $4,423The US Dollar trades on the back foot amid reduced hopes of interest rate hikes.The United States and Iran are working to extend the truce by 60 more days.XAU/USD maintains upward pressure near August highs. Gold price kicked off the week, maintaining upward pressure, trading not far below the $4,400 mark. The US Dollar (USD) remains vulnerable after United States (US) data released throughout August weighed down the odds for a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in September.

The latest available US data came in on Friday, showing Retail Sales contracted 0.6% MoM in July, while Consumer Sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, fell to 51 in August from 55.2 in the previous month. But beyond these figures, market participants weigh the poor July employment report and the fact that inflation in the same month was in line with expectations.

What also weighed on speculative interest was the latest Fed meeting, in which Chair Kevin Warsh dodged a question about how he plans to fight inflation without raising rates. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will release the minutes of the July meeting on Wednesday, although the document will hardly shed light on future action.

Meanwhile, market talk suggests Iran and the US are willing to extend the ceasefire in the Middle East for 60 more days. Still, headlines also indicate that Iran shifted its defensive stance to a fully offensive one, a senior official told Reuters. Oil prices showed no reaction to the news, with the barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovering around $81.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

In the four-hour chart, XAU/USD maintains a constructive bullish bias as it holds comfortably above the short-term 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at roughly $4,383.06, with the 100-period and 200-period SMAs rising well below price near $4,212.86 and $4,145.95 respectively, reinforcing a broader uptrend structure. Momentum conditions remain supportive, with the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator hovering around 61 and the 14-period Momentum indicator advancing in positive territory, both suggesting ongoing upside pressure rather than an imminent reversal.

In the daily chart, XAU/USD is also bullish. The metal holds above the 100-day SMA at $4,386.20 and extends its advance well beyond the 20-day SMA at $4,195.52, indicating firm underlying demand on dips. Momentum remains positive, with the 14-period RSI hovering near 66 and the Momentum indicator also in positive territory, which suggests buyers retain control

On the downside, initial support is seen at the 20-period SMA around $4,383.06, where a pullback could find buyers to protect the immediate bullish structure. A deeper retreat would expose the next layers of demand at the 100-period SMA near $4,212.86 and then the 200-period SMA around $4,145.95, levels that would need to give way to threaten the prevailing uptrend. On the topside, the next notable hurdle emerges at the 200-day SMA around $4,506.84, where a sustained break would open the door to a more pronounced bullish extension.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

In this week’s Live from the Vault, Andrew Maguire is joined by silver analyst Peter Krauth to discuss January´s dramatic correction — and explain why silver holding firmly above $50 for nearly a year signals the real bull market move is still ahead.

As institutional money begins to enter the sector and silver miners generate cash flows that outperform every other S&P sector, Peter outlines why he sees current levels as a rare window - one that history suggests will not stay open for long.

Timestamps:00:00 Start01:27 Why Peter went long silver at $56 when everyone else was bearish05:15 Silver miners are lagging - but not for long09:07 Half a billion dollars is sitting on the sidelines waiting for silver14:12 Was January a bear trap? Peter makes the case20:01 Why silver mining is tiny - and why that makes it explosive25:18 Solar demand, copper substitution and why silver still wins30:33 How Asia´s gold market is quietly pulling silver higher34:01 Why technical analysts are getting silver completely wrong

Silver (XAG/USD) extends its advance on Monday and trades around $66.30 at the time of writing, up 2.47% on the day. The white metal continues to rebound from the $63.50 area reached on Friday, mainly supported by the weakening US Dollar (USD) and fading expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will raise interest rates again in September.

The shift in monetary policy expectations follows a series of disappointing US economic releases. US Retail Sales declined by 0.6% in July, while markets had expected a 0.1% increase, following a 0.2% rise in June.

These figures add to the annual slowdown in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), as well as the weak July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The accumulation of signs pointing to a slowdown in the US economy is reducing pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates further.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now see around a 70% chance that the US central bank will leave interest rates unchanged at its September meeting, up from 48% a week earlier.

This repricing weighs on the US Dollar and provides support to Silver. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 99.50 at the time of press after touching 99.30, its lowest level since June 5. A weaker US Dollar tends to make precious metals denominated in the US currency more attractive to investors using other currencies.

Investors remain attentive to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz. Persistent risks to energy supplies are keeping Oil prices elevated and could fuel inflationary pressures, potentially limiting the Fed’s ability to adopt a more accommodative stance.

Market attention now turns to the Minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, due on Wednesday. The document could provide further insight into the balance of risks within the Fed and determine whether the recent decline in rate hike expectations can persist, a factor likely to remain a key driver for Silver in the near term.

XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $66.36, retaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds well above the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) near $65.14 and the 200-period SMA around $64.04. The metal also respects an ascending trend-line support coming from $63.51 and now intersecting near $65.38, reinforcing the constructive structure, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 65 suggests firm but not yet extreme upside momentum.

On the topside, the immediate hurdle is the horizontal resistance at $66.80, where buyers could face profit-taking. On the downside, initial protection is seen at the rising trend-line support near $65.38, followed by the 100-period SMA at $65.14; a deeper retreat would expose horizontal support at $64.25 ahead of the 200-period SMA at $64.04, where broader bulls would be expected to defend the uptrend.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

British Pound: Bullish bias with data risk ahead against US Dollar – Scotiabank

Gold: Investors extend longs but hedge risks – TD Securities

$1.15955

+0.19%

In the short-term forex markets, we have seen a bit of US dollar soften a touch. At this point, the markets continue to see volatility.

In this article:EUR/USD

+0.19%

EUR/USD ForecastUSD/CAD

-0.17%

USD/CAD ForecastGBP/USD

+0.13%

GBP/USD Forecast In the short-term forex markets, the euro has risen a bit in early trading on Monday. It is starting to pull back just a touch, but it looks supported to me.

Now, I’m not massively bullish this market, but I recognize that we are starting to see some softness in the U.S. dollar. I’ll be watching right around 1.1550 for signs of support to take advantage of, as we’ve had a nice bottoming pattern from a longer-term consolidation area.

I recognize that right around 1.1650 there could be some resistance, so short-term bounce play might be what I’m looking to do here, all things being equal.

USD/CAD The U.S. dollar has fallen against the Canadian dollar. I am particularly interested in the 1.39 level on any bounce for signs of exhaustion, assuming that the U.S. dollar continues to lose strength.

There are reports out there in the media right now about a potential ceasefire between the United States and Iran. We’ll see what influence that has on the market. There was an initial jolt of risk appetite coming back into the market that seems to have been abated.

GBP/USD The British pound against the U.S. dollar is another one I’m watching. On the hourly chart, we’re forming a rising wedge. A pullback toward the 1.3525 area might be interesting for value. It is also the measured move of that pattern if it does break.

The British pound has been one of the better performers against the dollar for a while, so when I find myself in a situation where I’d rather buy the dollar, I actually avoid this pair. But selling the dollar, it has performed fairly well in comparison to some of its contemporaries.

We did just recently break a swing high at the 1.3550 level, so that would be a retest, something worth watching. We’ll see. If I get that opportunity to buy it a little cheaper, I might just do so.

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Chris is a proprietary trader with more than 20 years of experience across various markets, including currencies, indices and commodities. As a senior analyst at FXEmpire since the website’s early days, he offers readers advanced market perspectives to navigate today’s financial landscape with confidence.

Latest news and analysis

The Euro managed to resume the advance to close towards the first target  at 1.1620. As we see from the chart, prices face support around 1.1470-80 while as long as the market holds above it, the advance may could continue towards 1.1685 and above.

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Geopolitics Supports Gold but Is Not Driving Monday’s Move The dollar and yields are carrying Monday’s move, not a single headline out of the Middle East. But the backdrop matters. U.S. envoys were in Cairo Sunday meeting Egyptian, Qatari and Turkish mediators trying to push a Gaza peace plan forward while Israeli airstrikes continued on the ground. The Strait of Hormuz is still restricted. Crude oil stays elevated because of it, and elevated crude keeps the inflation risk on the table for every Fed official watching the data.

The conflict is working two ways for gold. Restricted shipping and higher crude prices keep a protective bid underneath the metal on the breaks, but they also feed into the inflation data the Fed will see before September. Gold benefits from the uncertainty now. It can lose ground if oil pushes yields and the dollar higher than the rate relief can absorb.

Three Fed Dissenters Keep the Hike Case Alive The rate trade is friendlier but the Fed is not finished debating it. The central bank voted 9-3 to hold rates steady at 3.50% to 3.75% on July 29. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan wanted a quarter-point increase. A three-way dissent on a hold is a wide split for a committee that is supposed to be moving together.

Wednesday’s minutes from that July meeting will show whether Hammack, Kashkari and Logan were fighting alone or speaking for a larger group that stayed quiet on the vote. Gold traders have already repriced September aggressively. If the minutes read hawkish, those bets come back fast and the dollar gets a reason to bounce.

Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is edging higher on Monday. The move confirms the new minor bottom at $4311.04. Resistance today is an intermediate 50% level at $4416.82. This is followed by a swing top at $4449.83, $4481.78 and the 200-day moving average at $4505.32.

The main trend is up. The bulls are looking to take out $4449.83 to reaffirm the uptrend. Then things could be tricky at the 200-day moving average. This is both resistance and a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. Some traders feel that this is the level the institutions are watching for a new entry.

On the downside, the key level is the swing bottom at $4311.04. Taking out this level will change the minor trend to down. This will also shift momentum to the downside. Extending losses through this bottom could drive spot gold into the short-term 50% level at $4195.96, followed by the 50-day moving average at $4147.74 and a Fibonacci level at $4136.05.

What to Watch Gold has the rate backdrop it wanted. The dollar is lower, Treasury yields are easing and September hike odds have dropped near 31%. The question is whether the dollar keeps rolling over after its recent strength or bounces back. A continued decline gives gold room to extend the rally. A recovery in the currency or yields tells traders the market is putting the inflation risk back on the table. FOMC minutes Wednesday and Jackson Hole next week are the two events that can reset the trade in either direction.

The metal is holding above recent support and the 200-day moving average overhead is pulling the conversation toward the next major decision level. Gold has room to work higher as long as the dollar and yields stay cooperative, but the range holds until the Fed gives the market a clear reason to break it.

If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.

GBP/USD Price Forecast: Bulls press toward 1.3600 as uptrend strengthens