Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is edging lower on Tuesday. The main trend is up, but traders are struggling to take out $4449.83 to reaffirm the uptrend. The trend will turn down on a move through the last swing bottom at $4311.04.
The long-term range is the April 17 main top at $4891.54 and the June 30 main bottom at $3942.10. Its 50% level at $4416.82 has been providing resistance for six straight sessions. Additional resistance is the 200-day moving average at $4507.45. The longer-term bulls are hoping for a breakout over this indicator in order to draw in the institutions.
The short-term range is $3942.10 to $4449.83. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $4195.96 to $4136.05 along with the 50-day moving average at $4150.57 will become the primary target zone.
What to Watch The long bond is running this trade. Gold has the softer dollar and the lower hike odds and neither one has been enough to push through six sessions of resistance. Crude back above $91 is feeding the same fiscal and inflation story that has the 30-year at a 19-year high. FOMC minutes Wednesday can either confirm that the three July dissenters were alone or show the committee is more worried than the vote suggested.
Gold is stuck between a front end that favors buyers and a long end that will not let them through. The 200-day overhead is where the trade changes. The swing bottom below is where it breaks. The bond market picks the direction.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Over the last 3 trading sessions, the Canadian dollar has shown signs of strength, reflected in a USD/CAD decline of nearly -0.43%, marking a short-term bearish bias. This pressure has held steady following the release of Canada's inflation data and amid expectations of progress in tariff negotiations, keeping the Canadian currency from losing ground.
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Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes that Gold remains around USD 4,400 per ounce even as US Treasury yields rise back toward late-July levels, decoupling from real interest rates. He suggests markets may doubt the Fed’s willingness or ability to hike sufficiently, or fear fiscal risks, both supportive for Gold, with ETF flows showing renewed investor interest after recent outflows.
Higher yields fail to derail Gold"The gold price is holding at around USD 4,400 per troy ounce, thereby defying the rise in oil prices and US bond yields."
The yield on 10-year US Treasuries reached 4.74%, almost returning to the level seen at the end of July, whilst the yield on 30-year Treasuries exceeded 5.3% for the first time since 2007. As market-based inflation expectations have hardly changed since then, real interest rates have also returned to the level seen at the end of July. By way of comparison: at that time, gold was trading at USD 4,040, i.e. significantly lower."
"Although the interest rate expectations reflected in Fed Funds futures have risen marginally in recent days, they remain significantly lower than at the end of July. One interest rate hike is priced in by the end of the year. At the end of July, this figure was 13 basis points higher."
"The rise in yields is therefore not attributable to increased expectations of interest rate hikes, but appears to have other causes."
"It could be, for instance, that the market doubts the Fed will raise interest rates sufficiently to combat inflation effectively. Another possible explanation is fiscal risks – notably rising government debt – which are also likely to preclude a more substantial increase in key interest rates."
"Both of these explanations would clearly be positive for gold."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold prices continue to draw support from expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold interest rates steady through the remainder of the year after softer US inflation and employment data.
However, while money managers have aggressively built long exposure, energy price volatility originating from tensions in the Middle East presents a key capping risk. With potential Oil price spikes threatening to reignite inflation and reshape Fed rate expectations, the precious metal is likely to remain locked in a defined trading range.
Gold daily chart. Source: FXStreet.Fed pause expectations and soft USD boost speculative long positioningAccording to TD Securities strategists, speculation that the Fed will refrain from further rate increases this year has provided a strong tailwind for precious metals. A combination of modest inflation metrics, lackluster employment data and short-end yield stabilization appears to have convinced speculative traders that the US Dollar is on a downward path.
Consequently, asset managers have heavily built out long Gold positions, though a subset of traders maintain downside hedges against unexpected Oil-driven rate shocks.
Traders are hypothesizing that the Fed will not pull the trigger on rate hikes this year, which has subdued interest rates on the short end of the curve and convinced specs that the USD is headed lower.
Middle East energy risks cap near-term upside for GoldTD Securities also points out that while political concerns and labor market soft spots bolster the Fed pause narrative, near-term price gains for Gold will likely remain constrained. Ongoing hostilities in the Persian Gulf keep energy supply lines vulnerable. Should an Oil price surge trigger renewed inflation concerns, the bar for the Fed to re-evaluate its rate path remains low, forcing traders to adjust policy pricing upward.
Such a development [an oil price surge] would likely force gold traders to reprice policy expectations to reflect higher Fed funds rates this year and next.
Strategists project Gold to trade range-boundTD Securities projects a consolidated holding pattern for Gold in the near to medium term. The risk of higher interest rates driven by energy market uncertainty is expected to anchor the precious metal within a $4,200–$4,500/oz corridor into early 2027. However, once inflation pressure subsides, the metal is poised to break out toward higher levels later in 2027.
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
With rising rates, it does make non-yielding assets like silver a little less attractive, and I also am looking at the US dollar depending on the currency you’re measuring it against. It could be trying to make a little bit of a comeback. That might work against silver as well.
200-Day EMA Barrier and Macro Drivers The next candle that’s impulsive, I think, probably tells the story at this point as we’re just waiting for something. That something is probably the bond market or the situation in the Middle East to gain more clarity, which is something that is lacking at the moment to say the least.
Longer-term, I love silver. I think silver has a bright future ahead of it as the demand for electrification will continue to drive silver higher over the longer term. Same thing with copper. But right now, there are so many other things going on; most traders aren’t worried about the AI trade or the electric trade or the supply and demand. It’s all about interest rates currently, at least that’s how the market’s behaving.
Chris Turner at ING describes EUR/USD as contained after a rally stalled just above 1.16, with investors cautious due to high natural gas prices and upcoming FOMC minutes. He expects a 1.1520–1.1580 range near term, while higher energy supports ECB hike expectations. ING maintains forecasts for EUR/USD at 1.17 by end-September and 1.18 by year-end.
Euro capped by energy and Fed risk"Yesterday's EUR/USD rally stalled shortly above 1.16, and investors will be reluctant to push it much higher given energy price developments and ahead of the FOMC minutes tomorrow night."
"Despite recent positive economic surprises in the eurozone, the fact that natural gas prices are close to their highs for the year merits some caution."
"Higher energy prices are firming up expectations of a 25bp hike from the European Central Bank in September and keeping views alive of another 25bp hike by early next year."
"We could see EUR/USD trade out a 1.1520-1.1580 range today. And a reminder that we have a forecast for 1.17 by the end of September on the view that the Fed does not hike and 1.18 for year-end."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Key takeaways FOMC Policy: Markets await the August 19 minutes for clarity on whether the Fed will prioritize cooling labor market momentum or persistent inflation risks. Canada CPI: Headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% on energy costs, while core inflation remained steady. The BoC is expected to hold rates at 2.25% on September 2. USD/CAD Technicals: Price action is testing a critical support confluence (long-term SMA200, monthly S2, weekly S1) with the RSI indicating oversold conditions at 29.24. FOMC meeting minutes Market participants are looking ahead to the publication of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, August 19, seeking insight into the central bank’s debate on future interest rate moves following its 9–3 decision to keep the benchmark target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Although these discussions occurred before the August 7 non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, analysts will examine the text to determine whether persistent inflation risks or cooling labor market momentum—underscored by slowing hiring and an unexpected drop of 23,000 jobs in July—will play a larger role in shaping the Fed’s decision at the September meeting.
Market expectations for the federal reserve policy rates Source: CME Group – CME Fedwatch tool, conditional meetings probabilities. Past performance is not indicative of future results
As of August 17th, 2026, market expectations for Federal Reserve policy rates reflect a shift toward a higher-for-longer regime driven by persistent inflation concerns and economic resilience. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in conditional meeting probabilities that favor maintaining or slightly adjusting the benchmark interest rate target range. For the September 16, 2026, meeting, the market indicates a 63.4% probability that the target rate will settle in the 350–375 basis points (3.50%–3.75%) range, with a 36.6% probability that it will settle in the 375–400 basis points range. Moving toward the end of the year, the highest probability shifts slightly upward to the 375–400 basis points range, coming in at 45.3% for the December 9, 2026, meeting (with a 31.7% chance remaining at 350–375 bps and 20.3% at 400–425 bps). Looking further out into 2027, the central tendency of market expectations remains firmly anchored around the 375–400 bps target rate—holding probabilities near 35% to 43% through late 2027—suggesting that market participants foresee limited monetary easing and expect interest rates to remain relatively steady rather than returning to lower levels.
Canada consumer price index (CPI) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. – Canada CPI – All items, weighted median and trimmed mean
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released by Statistics Canada, showed that while the headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation metrics remained largely muted, suggesting that the headline increase was driven by volatile factors rather than broad-based price pressures. Specifically, the CPI-Median rose slightly to 2.0% from 1.9%, while the CPI-Trim held steady at 1.9%, both filtering out extreme price volatility to provide a clearer view of underlying trends.
The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% reduces the immediate likelihood of a rate cut or a hike at the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) upcoming September 2nd meeting. With Canada’s unemployment rate sitting around 6.5%, raising interest rates in a cooling labor market to combat oil shocks may risk over-tightening. According to the Montreal Exchange, BoC is expected to keep the interest rate at its current level of 2.25%.
USD/CAD daily chart technical analysis Source: Tradingview.com – USD/CAD daily chart. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Following a breakout below an ascending channel in early 2025, the USD/CAD price action traded within a narrowing formation, as marked by the red lines on the chart. Price action continued to find support and resistance along the formation’s lower and upper boundaries throughout its duration till June 2026. In May 2026, price action began a sharp trend, as marked by the black line on the chart. In June 2026, the price broke above the upper boundary of the narrowing price action, reaching a high of 1.4240. However, in July, it broke below the trend and completed a pullback to its extension, followed by a steep decline that pierced multiple critical support levels. The break took the price below the monthly PP of 1.4081, the monthly S1 of 1.3923, the weekly PP of 1.3901, the fast EMA9, and the intermediate SMA 50. Currently, price action is attempting to hold above a key technical support confluence formed by the long-term SMA, the monthly S2 at 1.3833, and the weekly S1 at 1.3837. A secondary support level sits below, defined by the extension of the aforementioned formation’s upper red border line. The 14-period RSI moves in tandem with price action, sitting in oversold territory at 29.24.
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MarketPulse is a forex, commodities, and global indices research, analysis, and news site providing timely and accurate information on major economic trends, technical analysis, and worldwide events that impact different asset classes and investors. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.
Key takeaways FOMC Policy: Markets await the August 19 minutes for clarity on whether the Fed will prioritize cooling labor market momentum or persistent inflation risks.Canada CPI: Headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% on energy costs, while core inflation remained steady. The BoC is expected to hold rates at 2.25% on September 2.USD/CAD Technicals: Price action is testing a critical support confluence (long-term SMA200, monthly S2, weekly S1) with the RSI indicating oversold conditions at 29.24. FOMC meeting minutes Market participants are looking ahead to the publication of the July FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, August 19, seeking insight into the central bank’s debate on future interest rate moves following its 9–3 decision to keep the benchmark target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Although these discussions occurred before the August 7 non-farm payrolls (NFP) report, analysts will examine the text to determine whether persistent inflation risks or cooling labor market momentum—underscored by slowing hiring and an unexpected drop of 23,000 jobs in July—will play a larger role in shaping the Fed’s decision at the September meeting.
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Market expectations for the federal reserve policy rates Source: CME Group - CME Fedwatch tool, conditional meetings probabilities. Past performance is not indicative of future results As of August 17th, 2026, market expectations for Federal Reserve policy rates reflect a shift toward a higher-for-longer regime driven by persistent inflation concerns and economic resilience. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in conditional meeting probabilities that favor maintaining or slightly adjusting the benchmark interest rate target range. For the September 16, 2026, meeting, the market indicates a 63.4% probability that the target rate will settle in the 350–375 basis points (3.50%–3.75%) range, with a 36.6% probability that it will settle in the 375–400 basis points range. Moving toward the end of the year, the highest probability shifts slightly upward to the 375–400 basis points range, coming in at 45.3% for the December 9, 2026, meeting (with a 31.7% chance remaining at 350–375 bps and 20.3% at 400–425 bps). Looking further out into 2027, the central tendency of market expectations remains firmly anchored around the 375–400 bps target rate—holding probabilities near 35% to 43% through late 2027—suggesting that market participants foresee limited monetary easing and expect interest rates to remain relatively steady rather than returning to lower levels.
Canada consumer price index (CPI) Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. - Canada CPI - All items, weighted median and trimmed mean Past performance is not indicative of future results. Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, released by Statistics Canada, showed that while the headline inflation accelerated to 3.0% year-over-year in July, up from 2.8% in June, the Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation metrics remained largely muted, suggesting that the headline increase was driven by volatile factors rather than broad-based price pressures. Specifically, the CPI-Median rose slightly to 2.0% from 1.9%, while the CPI-Trim held steady at 1.9%, both filtering out extreme price volatility to provide a clearer view of underlying trends.
The jump in headline inflation to 3.0% reduces the immediate likelihood of a rate cut or a hike at the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) upcoming September 2nd meeting. With Canada’s unemployment rate sitting around 6.5%, raising interest rates in a cooling labor market to combat oil shocks may risk over-tightening. According to the Montreal Exchange, BoC is expected to keep the interest rate at its current level of 2.25%.
With over 15 years' experience in the forex markets, on both the research and client relations sides, Moheb specialises in technical, trade-focused market analysis. He has worked at a number of top financial institutions, publishing daily commentary and driving sales for retail and institutional clients. A CMT Charter member, Moheb holds a globally recognised CFTe designation.
With over 15 years' experience in the forex markets, on both the research and client relations sides, Moheb specialises in technical, trade-focused market analysis. He has worked at a number of top financial institutions, publishing daily commentary and driving sales for retail and institutional clients. A CMT Charter member, Moheb holds a globally recognised CFTe designation.
Silver (XAG/USD) declines on Tuesday and trades around $65.00 at the time of writing, down 1.20% on the day. The white metal nevertheless remains trapped within the consolidation range that has dominated trading for about a week, as opposing forces prevent a clear direction from emerging.
The monetary policy outlook in the United States (US) remains one of the main drivers of Silver prices. Recent weaker-than-expected US economic data have prompted investors to scale back expectations of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its September meeting.
Weakness in the US labor market is contributing to this shift in expectations. The latest July Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report surprised to the downside, while recent inflation and consumer spending data have also reduced pressure for further monetary tightening.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see around a 35% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, down from 47% a month ago. Reduced expectations of higher interest rates tend to support Silver, as lower rates decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
However, this support is being offset by the sharp rise in energy prices amid persistent tensions between the United States (US) and Iran. The failure to renew the ceasefire agreement and uncertainty surrounding the naval blockade of Iranian ports are fueling concerns over global energy supplies.
Higher Oil prices could therefore reignite inflationary pressures worldwide. Energy-driven inflation could encourage major central banks to keep monetary policy restrictive for longer, or even consider further rate hikes, which would represent a headwind for non-yielding precious metals such as Silver.
At the same time, geopolitical tensions provide some support to the white metal through demand for safe-haven assets. Uncertainty surrounding relations between Washington and Tehran therefore leaves Silver caught between inflation risks stemming from higher energy prices and defensive flows driven by geopolitical tensions.
Investors now turn their attention to the Minutes of the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, due on Wednesday. The document could provide further insight into how Fed officials assess the balance of risks and their willingness to continue tightening monetary policy following recent signs of a slowdown in the US economy.
Against this backdrop, Silver could remain sensitive to shifts in US interest-rate expectations. A less restrictive tone in the Minutes could weigh on Treasury yields and the US Dollar (USD), potentially supporting the white metal, while persistent inflation concerns could continue to limit its rebound potential.
XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $65.00, retaining a bearish near-term tone as price has slipped below the 100-hour simple moving average (SMA) at $65.26 while still holding above the 200-hour SMA at $64.47. This positioning suggests the latest pullback is pressuring the short-term trend, with the longer-term average offering interim cushioning. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41.38 stays in mildly bearish territory, hinting at waning upside momentum rather than outright oversold conditions.
On the downside, initial support emerges at the 200-hour SMA around $64.47, followed by a horizontal level near $64.20, before deeper floors at $63.51 and $63.00. On the topside, immediate resistance is seen at the 100-hour SMA at $65.26; a sustained recovery above this barrier would open the way toward the next notable cap at $66.80.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) trades lower against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, weighed by a moderate risk-averse sentiment as tensions in the Middle East grow. The NZD/USD pair has reversed Monday’s gains and pulled back to the 0.5880 area ahead of the US session opening, after rejection at 0.5926.
Risk appetite waned on Tuesday as the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding expired without advances in the peace process. Washington and Tehran have ramped up their threats, and the key Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, buoying Oil prices and adding pressure on the risk-sensitive Kiwi.
Technical Analysis: Key support is at 0.5830
NZD/USD trades at 0.5879, holding a mildly bullish bias while above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) at 0.5834, yet with momentum indicators hinting at waning upside pressure. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has retreated below 60 and trends towards the 50 midline, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has ticked below the zero line, suggesting that bulls are losing conviction.
Immediate support is seen at the ascending trendline from late June lows, now around 0.5860, although the key support level is the 200-day SMA at 0.5834. A break below that level would confirm a deeper correction, aiming for the late July lows just above 0.5760.
On the topside, bulls would need a clear break of the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of June's downtrend at 0.5916 to curb bears' hopes and shift the focus towards the six-month highs in the 0.600 area (May 7, 29 highs).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.06%0.16%0.18%-0.00%-0.02%0.39%0.21%EUR-0.06%0.10%0.11%-0.07%-0.07%0.31%0.16%GBP-0.16%-0.10%-0.02%-0.16%-0.18%0.23%0.06%JPY-0.18%-0.11%0.02%-0.17%-0.19%0.21%0.05%CAD0.00%0.07%0.16%0.17%-0.02%0.39%0.22%AUD0.02%0.07%0.18%0.19%0.02%0.40%0.24%NZD-0.39%-0.31%-0.23%-0.21%-0.39%-0.40%-0.15%CHF-0.21%-0.16%-0.06%-0.05%-0.22%-0.24%0.15% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
The Euro managed to resume the advance to close towards the first target at 1.1620. As we see from the chart, prices face support around 1.1470-80 while as long as the market holds above it, the advance may could continue towards 1.1685 and above.
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The Yen gave back some of its recent advance that was triggered by US and Japanese intervention. The pair printed above the 158.05 resistance which indicated a wider range for rebound towards the 160.85 resistance.
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Risk Warning: Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Before deciding to trade foreign exchange, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss of some or all of your investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Orbex Global does not offer its services to residents of certain jurisdictions such as Mauritius, USA, and North Korea.
All this month USD has been getting weaker, and this has helped the price of Gold and Silver.
However, that’s not the whole story.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on Gold, XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, WTI and Brent Crude Oil.
There are 6 reasons that investors are heading to gold as a safe haven:
US fiscal deficits are increasing, and political turmoil isn’t helping.
Treasury supply of T-bills and investors are becoming increasingly nervous about the US bond market.
Inflation, which is a direct result of crazy tariffs and energy costs because of the Iran war.
Geopolitical risk is still high, not just in the Middle East.
Diversification away from US assets is important for many investors for financial and political reasons.
Many central banks are changing their FX reserve holdings from USD and going to other currencies and gold.
Many analysts are eyeing $4,500 soon and $5,000 later in the year.
This may actually get worse after tomorrow’s FOMC, so keep an eye on the economic news.
Also, we see UK CPI tomorrow, so watch your calendars and some News Catalyst Fade moves on GBP pairs.
You will note this huge dip in EURGBP caused by a US Treasury report late last night.
Also, as we saw on the calendar, yesterday’s UK claimant count was positive for GBP, and our indicators caught the point of reversal here.
On other GBP pairs, we see GBPUSD in an uptrend retracing toward the lower trendline, so we will wait to see if our indicators give us confirmation.
And, let’s take a look at Crude Oil.
As we try to follow trends, it becomes difficult with the turmoil between the US and Iran and the very restricted number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, the latest jump is based on yesterday’s violence in Lebanon, so the price of oil isn’t just being dictated by the war in Iran.
Just keep your eye on the news regarding peace talks and threats of more aggression.
TL;DR: Brent’s break above $90 is doing double duty for CAD/JPY — strengthening Canada’s terms of trade while pushing global bond yields higher and deepening Yen funding pressure — and this time Canada’s own data are contributing too, unlike June’s Yen-only rally.
CAD/JPY Has Found a Rare Double Tailwind Brent’s break above $90 is doing more than lifting Canadian Dollar. It is also pushing global inflation expectations and bond yields higher, adding pressure to Yen. For CAD/JPY, that creates an unusually clean setup: same US-Iran shock strengthens one side of cross while weakening other.
June 17 ceasefire framework formally expired on August 17 without renewal, leaving no clear diplomatic settlement in sight. Higher oil improves Canada’s terms of trade and supports petro-currency, while renewed energy and freight inflation keeps global yields elevated. For Yen, still one of market’s principal funding currencies, wider yield differentials reinforce carry pressure. Instead of two separate narratives, CAD strength and JPY weakness are being driven by same underlying shock.
This Time Canada Is Contributing Too That is important because CAD/JPY has rallied on Yen weakness before. Late-June advance eventually stalled because Canadian Dollar itself offered limited independent support. Current move starts from a stronger domestic backdrop.
May GDP rose 0.3% m/m, beating 0.2% forecast and expanding across 13 of 20 sectors. July labor data then surprised decisively, with employment jumping 75K against 15K expected and unemployment dropping to a two-year low of 6.4%. July CPI followed with headline inflation accelerating from 2.8% to 3.0% y/y, above 2.9% consensus, while Trimmed and Median CPI firmed to 1.9% and 2.0% respectively.
Gasoline was a substantial part of headline inflation surge, rising 25.7% y/y, and part of that effect is linked to tax treatment that rolls off in September. That argues against treating CPI as proof that BoC has already returned to a tightening path. But combined with stronger growth and employment, data have at least reopened hike discussion after it had largely disappeared. For CAD, that is enough to distinguish current rally from June’s mostly Yen-driven move.
Oil Shock Is Also Hurting Yen Through Bonds Global bond market supplies second leg. US 30-year yield has climbed to around 5.31%, highest in 19 years, while 10-year is near 4.74%. Germany’s 10-year Bund has reached about 3.22%, highest since 2011, and Canada’s 10-year recently touched 3.75%, a 26-month high.
Current rise in yields carries a stagflationary flavor rather than a straightforward growth signal. Hormuz disruptions and higher energy and freight costs are lifting inflation concerns and encouraging investors to price restrictive rates for longer. That is exactly environment in which Yen’s yield disadvantage becomes harder to ignore.
BoJ normalization may eventually narrow that gap, but global yields are moving higher in meantime. Until Japanese rates catch up more substantially, higher overseas yields continue to reinforce Yen-funded carry trades. Brent above $90 therefore creates a double effect for CAD/JPY: stronger Canadian terms of trade and greater funding pressure on Yen.
Brent Consolidation Will Tell Us Whether CAD Strength Is Real Best test of this rally may come when oil stops rising.
If Brent consolidates around $90–91 and CAD/JPY continues holding or extending gains, that would be strong evidence that Canadian Dollar’s domestic improvement is doing meaningful work. GDP, employment and CPI would then be providing enough support for CAD to carry rally even without another daily oil breakout.
If CAD/JPY instead stalls immediately whenever crude stops climbing, move would look more like June again: predominantly Yen weakness with limited independent CAD follow-through.
That gives current trade a falsifiable fundamental test. A durable move toward 120 should increasingly survive without requiring Brent to make new highs every session.
Japan Can Still Interrupt the Trade Main risk does not currently come from Canada. It comes from Japan.
USD/JPY is moving back toward 160 intervention-sensitive zone, reviving possibility of verbal or direct action from Japanese authorities. September 18 BoJ meeting also approaches with substantial probability of another rate increase already priced.
Either development could hit CAD/JPY even if oil remains high. Actual intervention would likely trigger broad Yen buying across crosses, while a BoJ hike would challenge carry mechanism more fundamentally.
That makes 120 a plausible target, but not a low-volatility one. Stronger oil and global yields are pushing Yen in exactly direction that increases likelihood of Japanese response.
ActionForex’s Technical View on CAD/JPY: Break of 117.50 Would Put 120.86 on Map Technical structure supports bullish case. CAD/JPY has decisively reclaimed 55-day EMA around 114.52, adding to argument that correction from 117.50 ended at 110.82 in a three-wave structure. That low held around 111.28, 38.2% retracement of larger rise from 101.24 to 117.50, preserving medium-term uptrend.
Near-term bias stays higher while 113.86 holds. 116.45 is first resistance and a firm break would strengthen case that rebound has enough momentum to retest 117.50. Decisive break of 117.50 would be more important, signaling likely resumption of broader uptrend and opening 120 psychological level, followed by 120.86, 61.8% projection of 101.24 to 117.50 from 110.82.
Break below 113.86 would postpone that bullish scenario and suggest correction from 117.50 is extending. But while oil stays elevated, Canadian data remain firm and global yields keep Yen under pressure, CAD/JPY has a stronger foundation than during June’s failed advance. This time, both sides of cross are helping.
Key Takeaways Brent’s break above $90 is strengthening CAD/JPY from both sides: improving Canada’s terms of trade while pushing global yields higher and pressuring the Yen’s carry-funding role. Unlike June’s Yen-only rally, Canada’s own data are now contributing, with a 75K jobs beat, firmer May GDP, and CPI reopening the BoC hike discussion. Global bond yields are rising with a stagflationary character, with the US 30-year at a 19-year high and German and Canadian yields at multi-year highs. Brent stabilizing around $90-91 is a falsifiable test: continued CAD/JPY strength without new oil highs would confirm the domestic Canadian story is real. 117.50 is the key resistance for a run toward 120 and then 120.86, but USD/JPY nearing the 159.6-160.6 intervention zone and the September 18 BoJ meeting remain the main risks to that path.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
The Aussie enters this week with genuine hawkish backing. RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent reaffirmed that tighter policy is working as intended, with markets now pricing roughly a 70% chance of one final hike to 4.60% by early next year, even as inflation eased below forecasts last quarter. That combination of commodity strength, gold, iron ore and LNG all running above forecast, and a still-hawkish central bank has kept AUD broadly supported near multi-week highs, with all eyes now on Thursday’s July employment report.
The loonie tells an even stronger story. Canada’s economy expanded at a blistering 3.4% annualised pace in Q2, well above the Bank of Canada’s own 2.5% forecast, while July employment surged by 75,100 jobs against expectations of just 15,000, pulling unemployment down to a two-year low of 6.4%. That combination of surprising growth and labour market strength has fuelled speculation the BoC could hike if elevated energy prices persist, giving CAD real independent momentum of its own.
The result: two resource-linked currencies both riding genuinely hawkish narratives, leaving AUD/CAD’s next move to hinge on which central bank blinks first.
Technical Analysis of AUD/CAD
As the chart shows, AUD/CAD has been compressing into a symmetrical triangle since early August, with a descending trendline from the 0.9926 high converging with an ascending trendline off the 0.9748 low, both meeting right around current price near 0.9847, exactly where the 100-period EMA also sits.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers break above the descending trendline and the 0.382 retracement near 0.9858, the path would open towards the 0 level at 0.9926, a confirmed breakout that would suggest genuine momentum returning to the pair.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the ascending trendline and the 0.5 retracement near 0.9837 would expose the 0.618 level near 0.9816, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 0.786 retracement around 0.9786, or even the 0.9748 low that anchored this entire structure.With price coiled right at the apex of this triangle, sitting exactly on the 100-period EMA, AUD/CAD looks primed for a decisive break, will the Aussie’s hawkish backing prove enough, or does the loonie’s stronger data ultimately win out?
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MUFG sees USD/IDR rising to 18,700 by the second quarter of 2027 as trade deterioration and oil costs pressure the Rupiah. Two consecutive trade deficits and a $3.5bn oil-and-gas shortfall underpin MUFG's forecast for the US Dollar to Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate to reach 18,700 by Q2 2027.
The path starts at 18,100 in the third quarter of 2026, then rises to 18,350 in the fourth quarter and 18,500 in the first quarter of next year.
The 18,700 figure is therefore a Q2 2027 destination, not a near-term or year-end 2026 target.
Oil is weakening the external balance Foreign exchange analysts at MUFG say USD/IDR has recently stabilised around 18,000 as Bank Indonesia stepped up efforts to support the Rupiah.
Those measures include FX intervention, higher yields on Bank Indonesia Rupiah Securities and cheaper hedging swaps.
The nomination of Destry Damayanti as central-bank governor has also improved confidence in policy continuity.
But the bank argues that the external backdrop continues to lean against the currency.
MUFG noted that Indonesia posted a second successive monthly trade deficit in June, with a $0.5bn shortfall after a $1.6bn deficit in May.
The oil-and-gas account was the largest drag, with a $3.5bn deficit.
Surpluses in animal and vegetable oils and an improving base-metals balance provided a partial cushion, but did not remove the pressure from the higher oil-import bill.
“The trade deficit has added to the dollar liquidity stress onshore in our view, putting pressure on the rupiah,” the bank said.
Portfolio flows offer little evidence of a decisive turn.
Foreign investors sold a net $23m of Indonesian bonds in the week ending 14 August, although that followed a $199m inflow in the previous week.
Equities saw $30m of net foreign outflows after a modest $39m inflow previously.
MUFG's currency forecasts balance those external strains against an active central bank.
Intervention and policy-continuity confidence can stabilise the currency over short periods, while higher hedging support reduces the immediate pressure on domestic participants.
Yet persistent import demand for Dollars and consecutive trade deficits make a lasting appreciation harder to sustain.
MUFG says the oil outlook remains critical: tanker flows through the Strait had fallen sharply again and Brent was trading towards $90 a barrel.
The bank expected BI to hold its policy rate at 5.75% at the August meeting, giving intervention rather than a rate change the near-term stabilisation role.
MUFG's gradual 18,100-to-18,700 path assumes intervention slows the depreciation but cannot fully offset the oil bill and onshore US Dollar demand.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold dipped below 4,400 USD per ounce on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains. Pressure on the metal intensified amid a broader correction in the metals market and profit-taking following a strong rally.
An additional negative factor was the rise in oil prices, which once again heightened inflation risks and concerns over interest rates.
The geopolitical backdrop also remains tense. Prospects for a new US-Iran agreement deteriorated after Donald Trump announced that he was not interested in extending the interim peace deal.
At the same time, gold continues to draw support from diminished expectations of Federal Reserve tightening, following a series of weak US economic data. Markets are now primarily pricing in a rate hold in September, with a hike by year-end no longer fully priced in-a marked shift from just a week ago.
Additional support for the metal is coming from investment demand and central bank purchases, particularly from China.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 XAU/USD chart, the market formed a consolidation range around the 4,370 USD level and, with an upside breakout, completed a growth wave to 4,435 USD. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. A downside move and decline to 4,370 USD is expected, with a possible extension to 4,340 USD. Further growth to 4,516 USD is anticipated as a local target. The MACD indicator confirms the beginning of short-term downside momentum, with its signal line above the centre line and bracing for further lows.
On the H1 chart, the market broke above the 4,372 USD level and completed a growth wave structure to 4,434 USD, followed by a correction to test 4,372 USD from above. A broad consolidation range is practically forming around 4,372 USD. A range expansion up to 4,516 USD is expected, followed by a decline to 4,444 USD. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line remaining below the 20 level and pointing strictly upwards to 80.
Conclusion Gold’s outlook has become more complex as the metal retreats from recent highs amid profit-taking and a broader metals market correction. Rising oil prices have rekindled inflation concerns, while geopolitical tensions have worsened following Trump’s rejection of an extended US-Iran peace deal. However, support remains from diminished Fed tightening expectations after weak US data, with markets no longer fully pricing a hike by year-end. Central bank buying, particularly from China, continues to underpin demand. Technically, gold may see further short-term downside towards 4,340–4,370 USD before potentially resuming its uptrend towards 4,516 USD. The metal’s direction will hinge on US economic data, geopolitical developments, and signals from the Federal Reserve.
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Gold extended its gains on Monday, but it is pulling back today after failing once again to emerge above the temporary ceiling of $4,435. Tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz remain elevated, but US President Trump escalated his rhetoric to another level on Monday, when he threatened to strike Oman if the nation “gets in the way” and distorts negotiations with Iran on a deal to reopen the strait.
WTI crude oil closed above $85 per barrel for the first time since July 31, but according to Fed funds futures, it failed to significantly revive concerns about inflation. Following the disappointing NFP report for July, the soft inflation data for the same month, and the weak retail sales, investors are now assigning a 35% chance of a September rate hike, while they are penciling in only 40bps of rate increases by the end of 2027.
Maybe that’s why the slide in gold was modest. The precious metal experienced a strong recovery from near the key $4,000 zone amid the weakness in the US dollar and the flattening of the Fed’s implied rate path, but it is now struggling to overcome the $4,435 area.
Should the bulls manage to take charge from above the $4,345 zone this week, they could overcome that hurdle and aim for the $4,500 barrier. If they breach through that territory as well, then the next stop may be at $4,600, defined as resistance by the high of May 29.
What could add fuel to such a rally could be less hawkish-than-expected Fed minutes. If the minutes suggest that policymakers were in no rush to raise rates even before the latest bunch of soft US data, then the probability of a September hike could decline further, thereby reducing the opportunity cost for holding the precious metal.
On the other hand, a significant escalation in the Middle East that puts the September hike well back on the table, could push gold below $4,345, a move that could encourage the bears to dive all the way down to the $4,200 zone, marked by the inside swing high of July 6.
The British Pound (GBP) edges higher against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on Tuesday and extends gains for the third consecutive day, despite the mixed UK employment figures seen earlier on the day. The GBP/JPY pair is trading at 216.00 at the time of writing, with bulls focused on the July 31 high of 216.36.
UK data released earlier on Tuesday revealed that the ILO Unemployment Rate remained steady at 4.9% in the three months to June, against expectations of a slight decline to 4.8%. Employment growth slowed down, but the number of claimants fell unexpectedly, while wage inflation ticked up.
The Yen remains on the back foot after Japanese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, released on Monday, revealed that economic growth slowed down in the second quarter, which will likely hamper the Bank of Japan’s plans to accelerate its monetary tightening cycle.
Technical Analysis: Bulls remain in control, with RSI nearing overbought levels
GBP/JPY trades at 216.05, maintaining a bullish near-term bias after rallying more than 3% from August 2 lows. The Relative Strength Index (14), however, is nearing overbought territory, suggesting that the rally might be overstretched. Beyond that, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flattened around the zero line, hinting that the latest advance is losing incremental conviction.
On the topside, a breach of the mentioned 216.35 resistance area would expose a previous support between 217.16 (July 29 low) and 217.53 (Jul 21 low), ahead of the July 30 high, near 218.70.
On the downside, a bearish reversal would find support at Monday's low at 215.41, followed by the August 12 low at 214.53 and the August 6 and 7 highs at the 213.230 area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.05%0.11%0.16%-0.07%0.02%0.42%-0.00%EUR-0.05%0.07%0.15%-0.11%-0.02%0.38%-0.04%GBP-0.11%-0.07%0.04%-0.17%-0.10%0.32%-0.11%JPY-0.16%-0.15%-0.04%-0.22%-0.14%0.26%-0.16%CAD0.07%0.11%0.17%0.22%0.08%0.49%0.06%AUD-0.02%0.02%0.10%0.14%-0.08%0.40%-0.01%NZD-0.42%-0.38%-0.32%-0.26%-0.49%-0.40%-0.41%CHF0.00%0.04%0.11%0.16%-0.06%0.01%0.41% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The USD/CAD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from its lowest level since June 3, around the 1.3845 zone, also representing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, and oscillates in a narrow band on Tuesday. Spot prices extend the range-bound price action through the early European session and currently trade around the 1.3870-1.3875 region, unchanged for the day amid mixed cues.
Crude oil prices climb to an over two-week high amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. This, along with Monday's hot Canadian consumer inflation figures, continues to underpin the commodity-linked Loonie and acts as a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair. The downside, however, remains cushioned amid a strong follow-through US Dollar (USD) recovery from a two-month low, bolstered by bets for at least one rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) on the back of oil-driven inflation risks.
Meanwhile, momentum indicators suggest that bearish sentiment dominates even as spot prices stabilize above the longer-term trend support. In fact, the Relative Strength Index (14) sits in oversold territory near 29, hinting at stretched downside conditions, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with negative readings. Moreover, the USD/CAD pair has found acceptance below the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the April-June rally, validating the negative outlook.
However, a convincing break below the 200-day SMA at 1.3848 is needed to back the case for deeper losses to the 61.8% Fibo. level at 1.3822. Some follow-through selling would expose the 78.6% level at 1.3708, before the USD/CAD pair extends the fall toward the structural floor near 1.3562.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at the 50.0% retracement at 1.3902, followed by the 38.2% level at 1.3982 and then the 23.6% retracement at 1.4081, with the cycle high anchor around 1.4242 acting as a more distant barrier.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
USD/CAD daily chart
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
In comparison to the U.S. dollar, the euro has a stronger monetary policy backdrop. According to a Reuters survey, 57 of 69 economists expected the ECB to raise its deposit rate of 2.50 percent in September, while inflation continues to be above the ECB’s target of 2 percent. Policy divergence in favor of the euro continues to increase as the expectations surrounding the Fed’s policy continue to decline.
Sterling is also benefiting from policy divergence. UK growth for the second quarter was at 0.4 percent, and the Bank of England’s Chief Economist, Huw Pill, indicated that the recent growth that was also in excess of expectations, is a good reason for policy to be tightened. Currently markets are calling for at least one additional hike by the BoE in 2026. New data on the labor market and inflation in the U.K. will be released this week that will be useful in evaluating this position.
The main issue for all three currencies is the Middle East. Renewed U.S.-Iran tensions and ongoing disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz pose risks for another energy-related inflation shock, which could once again bring expectations of tighter policy if price pressures begin to accelerate.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Defends $99.38 Support but Remains Below Key EMAs
Pound-Canadian Dollar could regain ground if UK jobs data beats forecasts, although firmer oil prices may keep the Loonie supported. The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate held in a narrow range on Monday as investors were seemingly unfazed by Canada's latest inflation figures.
At the time of writing, the GBP/CAD exchange rate was trading at CA$1.8845. Down roughly 0.2% from the start of Monday’s session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.880949 (+0.17%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.607285 (+0.12%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.38694 (-0.04%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Canadian dollar (CAD) was rangebound at the start of this week, following the release of Canada's latest consumer price index.
According to data published by Statistics Canada, Canadian inflation accelerated from 2.8% to 3% in July, outpacing forecasts it would only rise to 2.9%.
Core inflation also rose above forecasts as it climbed from 2.1% to 2.3% over the same period.
The rise in Canadian CPI was primarily attributed to energy prices, with prices at the fuel pump rising 25% year-on-year due to the ongoing disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the 'Loonie' struggled to build any support off of the inflation data as analysts suggested the acceleration in price growth is unlikely to move the needle regarding a potential Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate hike later in the year.
The Pound (GBP) traded sideways against the majority of its peers on Monday, as GBP investors braced themselves for a run of high-impact UK economic data being published over the coming week.
The UK's latest inflation and employment releases are likely to prove the most influential of this glut of data as they are seen as the most likely to shape Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy in the coming months.
If this data points to a resilient UK economy, it will likely harden BoE rate hike bets and strengthen Sterling sentiment.
However, if the data is not strong enough to support current BoE policy expectations, the Pound could face significant headwinds.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: can UK jobs data give Sterling a lift? Looking ahead, the Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate may strengthen on Tuesday as the UK data deluge is kicked off with the publication of the UK's latest jobs report.
June's data is expected to report a welcome fall in unemployment, amid an uptick in employment growth.
However, the accompanying earnings data may ultimately cap any resulting upside potential in the Pound, as falling wage growth may ease pressure on the BoE to tighten monetary policy.
Meanwhile, movement in the 'Loonie' may be tied to oil prices on Tuesday, with CAD exchange rates likely to strengthen if Brent crude rises back toward $90 per barrel.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
GBP/USD could extend its three-month high if stronger UK jobs data boosts BoE rate expectations, while softer US employment keeps the US Dollar under pressure. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged higher at the start of this week, striking its best levels since mid-May amid a further dovish repricing of Federal Reserve interest rate expectations.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3556. Up around 0.2% from Monday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.356146 (+0.21%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.158915 (+0.16%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 159.36153 (+0.03%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) stumbled on Monday, reaching fresh multi-month lows as investors continued to unwind expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.
A recent run of softer-than-expected US economic releases has increasingly challenged expectations the Fed will tighten monetary policy in the coming months, with the majority of investors no longer pricing in a September rate hike.
The latest setback came from Friday’s US retail sales figures, which revealed an unexpected 0.6% contraction in consumer spending during July, the first decline in retail sales for nine months.
The disappointing retail sales figures followed a series of other lacklustre releases, including a much weaker-than-expected July payrolls report and relatively soft inflation data, that have also weakened Fed bets in recent weeks.
While able to tick higher against the US Dollar, the Pound (GBP) was left to trade in a narrow range against the bulk of its other peers on Monday, with GBP investors reluctant to alter their positions in the currency ahead of several UK economic releases.
Trading is set to pick up considerably as the week unfolds, starting with official labour market statistics and inflation figures in the first half of the session, before attention shifts to retail sales and flash PMI numbers towards the tail end of the week.
Investors will pay particularly close attention to the employment and CPI reports, which are likely to steer the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate outlook heading into autumn.
Should the data reveal enduring economic resilience and persistent underlying price pressures, renewed expectations of BoE policy tightening could give Sterling a meaningful lift.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Will a Stronger UK Jobs Market Boost Sterling? Turning to Tuesday's session, the UK's data glut begins with the publication of the UK's latest jobs report.
The data could extend the upside in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate as consensus forecasts predict an acceleration in employment growth will have pulled unemployment lower in June.
That said, any gains for Sterling could prove limited if an accompanying moderation in wage growth dampens market appetite for further central bank rate increases.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar may face further headwinds if the latest ADP employment data, reports that US employment growth continued to slow through the last week of July.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that EUR/USD briefly broke above major resistance at 1.1610 to 1.1614 before fading, leaving the Euro in a near-term consolidation between 1.1560 and 1.1600. The 1–3 week outlook remains positive, but the pair must break and hold above 1.1615 to open 1.1655, with strong support anchored at 1.1525.
Euro consolidates after failed breakout"24-HOUR VIEW: EUR rose sharply to a high of 1.1585 last Friday. Yesterday, we indicated that “the rapid rise appears to be running ahead of itself, but as long as 1.1545 (minor support is at 1.1555) is not breached, EUR could rise to 1.1590.” We added, “based on the prevailing momentum, a sustained rise above this level appears unlikely, and the major resistance at 1.1610 is unlikely to come under threat.” While EUR held above 1.1545 (low was 1.1558), it broke above 1.1610, reaching a high of 1.1614. However, EUR was unable to hold on to its gains, as it retreated to close little changed at 1.1579 (+0.09%). EUR appears to have entered a consolidation phase. Today, we expect EUR to trade between 1.1560 and 1.1600."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our EUR view from neutral to positive yesterday (17 Aug, spot at 1.1570). We highlighted the following: “The price action suggests that EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias from here. Currently, it is unclear whether EUR has sufficient momentum to reach the major resistance at 1.1610. On the downside, a break below 1.1525 (‘strong support’ level) would indicate that EUR is likely to continue range-trading.” We did not expect EUR to rise sharply and briefly to 1.1614. While the upside bias remains intact, given that there is no significant increase in upward momentum, EUR must break and hold above 1.1615 before a move to 1.1655 can be expected. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ remains unchanged at 1.1525."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold – Chart Gold is currently selling for $4,396 on the 4-hour chart, and although price is above the rising trendline that has been a recovery aid for August, it is currently trading in the middle of a sideways consolidation. Price is comfortably trading above the 50-EMA, which is around $4,341, as well as the 100-EMA, which is around $4,266. The recent price action shows consolidation around the resistance area of $4,448, after a few price attempts to move higher. A rebound from the rising trendline shows that bulls are stepping in to buy the dips.
An RSI around the 53 level is neutral to slightly positive and may show another bullish continuation. Resistance sits at $4,448 and $4,518, and above that sits $4,596. The first support sits around $4,333, and after that it comes in at $4,262 and $4,205.
In my opinion, gold is going to remain bullish as long as it’s trading above $4,333 and the rising trendline. A break above $4,448 may result in further bullish continuation to $4,518, and if $4,333 is lost, this may result in a deeper bearish move.
Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Tests Rising Channel Support Near $65.00
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,708.93 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,756.55 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 101,579.90 per tola from PHP 102,134.70 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,708.93
10 Grams
87,089.84
Tola
101,579.90
Troy Ounce
270,876.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
GBP/USD started a decent increase and climbed above 1.3520. A bullish trend line is forming with support near 1.3510 on the 4-hour chart. Bitcoin could continue to face heavy resistance near $64,650 and $65,500. EUR/USD gained traction and cleared the 1.1580 resistance. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound found support near 1.3440 against the US Dollar. GBP/USD started another increase above the 1.3500 resistance zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 1.3520, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair even attempted to settle above the 1.3565 resistance zone.
On the upside, the pair is now facing a major hurdle at 1.3580. The next major resistance might be 1.3620. A close above 1.3620 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.3700.
Any further gains might open the door for a test of 1.3750. If there is a fresh decline, the pair might find bids near 1.3500. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at 1.3510. The next major support could be near 1.3450 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour).
The main support might be 1.3420 and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). A downside break and close below 1.3420 might send the pair toward 1.3315. Any more losses could open the door for a test of 1.3250.
Looking at Bitcoin, the price must settle above $64,650 and $65,500 to decrease bearish pressure and start a steady increase.
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Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 518.65 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 521.49 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 6,049.44 per tola from AED 6,082.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
518.65
10 Grams
5,186.50
Tola
6,049.44
Troy Ounce
16,131.71
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Goldman Sachs has raised its three and six month USD/BRL exchange rate forecasts, placing election risk ahead of a later high-carry recovery. Goldman Sachs has raised its near-term USD/BRL forecasts as Brazil's election begins to command a larger risk premium.
The bank now projects the US Dollar to Brazilian Real exchange rate at 5.20 in three months, 5.10 in six months and 5.00 in 12 months.
Only the near-term forecasts moved “Our new USD/BRL forecasts are 5.20, 5.10, 5.00 in 3-, 6- and 12-months,” Goldman said.
The previous sequence was 4.90, 5.00 and 5.00, so the bank has raised the three- and six-month figures while leaving the 12-month destination unchanged.
With spot near 5.19 when the note was prepared, the revision chiefly removes the near-term Real appreciation that Goldman had previously expected.
That is not a wholesale bearish turn on the Real.
The revised profile implies modest BRL weakness during the first leg, followed by appreciation as USD/BRL declines from 5.20 to 5.00.
Goldman links the adjustment to the return of political risk as Brazil approaches its election.
The Real could still rally tactically, but the bank expects the exchange rate to respond both to changing probabilities for the candidates and to what each result could mean for the public finances.
“While BRL could tactically rally here, we think it will be difficult for USD/BRL to trade below 5.00, unless there is more clarity on fiscal consolidation post-election,” the report said.
The 5.00 level is both the 12-month destination and the threshold Goldman doubts can break without fiscal consolidation.
The forecast also sits inside a broader low-volatility environment in which carry has been a powerful source of returns.
Goldman expects high-carry currencies to continue outperforming once the immediate political premium fades, which explains why the medium-term trajectory slopes lower even after the near-term forecast revisions.
But the bank is explicit that the election can disrupt that sequence.
“Different election outcomes could push BRL away from this path over the medium-term,” it warned.
Timing defines the call: election uncertainty comes first and carry support later.
A 5.20 three-month forecast is not a call for uninterrupted Dollar strength, and a 5.00 12-month forecast is not a promise that fiscal concerns disappear.
Without clearer fiscal consolidation after the election, Goldman sees little room for USD/BRL to remain below 5.00.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
EUR/JPY extends its winning streak for the fourth successive day, trading around 184.80 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of a daily chart indicates that the spot is remaining within a rising wedge, signaling that an upward trend is losing momentum and typically acts as a bearish reversal.
The EUR/JPY cross holds above both the 50-period and nine-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which keeps the near-term bias constructive. The clustering of price just over these short- and medium-term EMAs suggests ongoing demand on dips, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 52.89 stays in neutral territory with a mild bullish tilt, hinting that upside momentum is steady rather than stretched.
The EUR/JPY cross is positioned slightly above the 50-day EMA at 184.52, followed by the lower boundary of the rising wedge around 184.60 and the nine-day EMA of 184.03. A decisive break below this confluence support zone would revive the bearish bias, potentially pressing the currency cross down toward its eight-month low of 179.37, recorded on August 3.
On the upside, the primary resistance lies at the upper boundary of the rising wedge around 186.10. A sustained break above the wedge could signal a broader bullish resurgence, opening the path for the currency cross to retest the area surrounding its all-time peak of 187.95 set on April 17.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%0.07%0.18%0.00%0.05%0.37%0.09%EUR-0.08%-0.01%0.11%-0.08%-0.03%0.29%0.04%GBP-0.07%0.00%0.09%-0.06%-0.02%0.32%0.04%JPY-0.18%-0.11%-0.09%-0.17%-0.12%0.20%-0.07%CAD0.00%0.08%0.06%0.17%0.05%0.37%0.10%AUD-0.05%0.03%0.02%0.12%-0.05%0.32%0.05%NZD-0.37%-0.29%-0.32%-0.20%-0.37%-0.32%-0.25%CHF-0.09%-0.04%-0.04%0.07%-0.10%-0.05%0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 39,222.46 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 39,439.59 it cost on Monday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 457,483.60 per tola from PKR 460,015.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
39,222.46
10 Grams
392,224.60
Tola
457,483.60
Troy Ounce
1,219,921.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
