Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

Coinbase's (COIN -1.78%) stock has declined more than 60% over the past 12 months. The major cryptocurrency exchange lost its luster as fears of interest rate hikes and other macro headwinds chilled the crypto market. That pullback might seem like a buying opportunity for contrarian investors, but I expect its stock to sink even lower before it's considered a bargain.

Why did Coinbase's stock crash? Coinbase generates most of its revenue by charging transaction fees for spot crypto trades. When interest rates are low, cryptocurrencies often rally as investors pivot toward riskier investments. The opposite happens when interest rates rise, and the crypto market cools off.

Image source: Getty Images.

Last year, many investors expected the Fed to continue cutting rates in 2026 as inflation cooled. But after the outbreak of the Iran war, oil prices surged and inflation heated up again. As a result, many investors are now bracing for interest rate hikes in the second half of 2026. In other words, the crypto market could remain chilly for the foreseeable future.

At the same time, Coinbase faces intense competition from its bigger rival, Binance; traditional brokerages that are expanding into the crypto market, and a growing list of fintech apps that also offer cryptocurrency trading. Stablecoins, which accounted for nearly a fifth of its top line in 2025, also face an uncertain future as the CLARITY Act remains stalled in the Senate. The broader crypto market also faces unpredictable regulatory headwinds worldwide.

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Coinbase is cutting costs and pruning its workforce to offset that pressure, but it still posted back-to-back quarterly losses in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026.

All of those issues are driving investors away from Coinbase, even though it seems reasonably valued right now at 21 times this year's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA). From 2025 to 2028, analysts expect its revenue and adjusted EBITDA to grow at CAGRs of 5% and 7%, respectively. However, we should take those estimates with a grain of salt, since they're pegged to the unpredictable crypto market.

Coinbase established an early mover's advantage in the crypto market, but it faces too many macro, competitive, and regulatory challenges to be considered a safe investment. Coinbase might eventually bounce back, but it won't attract more attention until interest rates stabilize, the CLARITY Act passes, and it finds more ways to widen its moat against its competitors.

With crude prices falling sharply by around $10/barrel, there can be some easing in the currency markets as the Dollar Index holds stable around 101. While the index may trade within 101.50-100.70 region for a while, Euro may attempt a slow rise towards 1.1450-1.15 while above 1.1370/1.14. USDJPY can dip to 162.70 before a slow rise towards 165 resumes. Aussie looks stable while Pound has scope to rise to 1.34/35 while above immediate support at 1.33. EURINR can trade within 109.5-110.50 while USDCNY can trade within 6.75-6.7850 for some time. USDINR could have scope to dip to 96.20-96.00 while below 97-96.75. The dip can come on the back of a decline in crude prices from levels above $100 to almost $90 now (Brent).

The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. A strong fall in oil price after the news that the US-Iran peace talk can restart has dragged the yields lower. There is room to fall more to test their support. Thereafter a fresh rise is possible. The German Yields have dipped slightly. But supports are there to limit the downside and keep the broader uptrend intact. The 10Yr GoI is oscillating around 6.85%. It can rise and test its resistance first and then resume the downtrend.

Dow and DAX have bounced from key support and can remain within the 52000-53000 and 24700-25500 ranges respectively. Nifty has recovered from recent lows and can rise towards 24000-24100 in the near term. Nikkei has rebounded, but while below 66000, the downside towards 63000 remains intact. Shanghai has also recovered, but while below 3900, it remains vulnerable to a pullback towards 3750-3700.

Brent and WTI can decline further towards $85 and $80 respectively before entering a sideways phase. Gold continues to hold above the key $4000 support, keeping the broader $4000-$4200 range intact. Silver is likely to remain range-bound between $55 and $65. Copper has found support near $6.30 and can rise towards $6.50 if this level holds. Natural Gas remains range-bound within the $2.80-$3.00 range.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Gold is off the highs but holds its bullish opening gap, while struggling near $4,100 early Monday. Despite the recent rebound, buyers trade with caution, keeping a close eye on the Middle East developments ahead of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy verdict this week.    

Gold cheers guarded optimismGold kicks off the week on a positive note, extending the previous week’s rebound from near the $4,025 region.

In doing so, the bright metal rose over 1% to regain the $4,100 level briefly. The latest leg up was sponsored by reduced haven demand for the US Dollar (USD) across the board and a fall in US Treasury bond yields.

This follows a two-night pause in strikes being exchanged between the United States (US) and Iran, which offered some respite to the markets, driving Oil prices 5% lower and thus easing inflation fears.

Additionally, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmail Baghaei told a press conference on Sunday that “mediators are working and trying to prevent tension from escalating.”

Receding inflation fears temper bets on a Fed interest rate hike, weighing on the Greenback and US Treasury bond yields, while allowing Gold buyers to try their luck.

However, Gold buyers have turned cautious as they assess whether the lull in fighting, which began on Friday evening and follows nearly two weeks of strikes, could last amid ongoing diplomatic efforts.

Gold traders also refrain from creating any big positions in the metal ahead of the Fed monetary policy meeting due to begin on Tuesday, with the verdict set to be announced on Wednesday.

Markets are pricing in roughly a 33% chance of a Fed rate hike this week, up from 12% seen 10 days ago, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Meanwhile, Gold’s daily technical setup also continues to caution Gold optimists, following the confirmation of the Bear Cross while momentum stays negative.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,090.11. The metal holds just above the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,069.60, but remains capped by the 50-day SMA near $4,221.95, keeping the broader tone bearish as price trades beneath the medium- and long-term trend gauges. The 100-day and 200-day SMAs, clustered around $4,469.47 and $4,493.66, reinforce a heavy topside structure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 48 hints at consolidative, slightly negative momentum rather than a decisive recovery.

Additionally, keeping buyers defensive, the 100-day SMA has closed below the 200-day SMA on July 22, confirming a Bear Cross.

On the downside, immediate support is located at the 21-day SMA at $4,069.60; a clear break below this short-term base would expose deeper weakness toward prior psychological and structural levels not shown on this chart. On the topside, initial resistance comes at the 50-day SMA around $4,221.95, with the 100-day SMA at $4,469.47 followed by the 200-day SMA at $4,493.66 forming a dense resistance zone that would need to be reclaimed to alleviate the prevailing bearish bias.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver price (XAG) trades sharply higher near $60.00 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The white metal starts the week on a firm note as the pause in military aggression between the United States (US) and Iran has sent oil prices sharply lower.

The exchange of attacks between the US and Iran paused after US ambassador to the United Nations (UN), Mike Waltz, told "Fox News ⁠Sunday" that President Donald Trump had decided to pause US attacks to allow more time for diplomacy, Reuters reports.

In the Asian trade, the WTI Oil price trades 5.6% lower to near $84.00. A sharp decline in oil prices has reduced concerns of a prolong elevated inflation expectations, which has eased fears of higher interest rates by global central banks in the near term.

The Silver price underperformed in the last months when the onset of the Middle East war boosted oil prices. Technically, higher interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Going forward, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, in which the central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades higher at around $60 at press time, striving to return above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is at $59.35.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) lifts toward the mid-40s and hints at modestly improving momentum rather than outright bearish exhaustion.

On the topside, a decisive daily close above the 20-day EMA at $59.35 would be needed to ease immediate downside pressure and open the way for a deeper recovery. Looking down, the July 17 low at $54.77 is the key support level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)

Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Key highlightsEUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.1475 resistance zone.A bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.1405 on the 4-hour chart.EUR/USD technical analysisLooking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below 1.1420, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bears pushed the pair toward the 1.1365 support.

If there is an increase in bearish pressure, the pair could decline below 1.1350. The first major support could be near 1.1325. The main support might be 1.1300.

A downside break and close below 1.1300 might send the pair toward 1.1265. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1240. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1400. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1405.

The next major resistance might be 1.1420 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above 1.1420 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1450. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1475.

Synopsys Showcases Comprehensive Autonomous Engineering Workflows from Silicon to Systems, Developed with NVIDIA Technology PR

GE HealthCare Technologies Inc (GEHC) released its 8-K filing on July 23, 2026, providing preliminary financial results for the second quarter of 2026. The comp

Key Highlights

EUR/USD started a fresh decline from the 1.1475 resistance zone. A bearish trend line is forming with resistance at 1.1405 on the 4-hour chart. GBP/USD trimmed most gains and traded below 1.3400. WTI Crude Oil prices might attempt a move above $95.00. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro failed to clear the 1.1475 hurdle against the US Dollar. EUR/USD started a fresh decline below 1.1450 and 1.1420.

Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled below 1.1420, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The bears pushed the pair toward the 1.1365 support.

If there is an increase in bearish pressure, the pair could decline below 1.1350. The first major support could be near 1.1325. The main support might be 1.1300.

A downside break and close below 1.1300 might send the pair toward 1.1265. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 1.1240. On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 1.1400. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at 1.1405.

The next major resistance might be 1.1420 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above 1.1420 could start another steady increase. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 1.1450. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 1.1475.

Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price seems to be following a bullish path, and the bulls could soon aim for a move above the $95.00 level.

Upcoming Key Economic Events:

German IFO Business Climate Index for July 2026 – Forecast 86.1, versus 85.6 previous. German IFO Current Assessment Index for July 2026 – Forecast 87.1, versus 87.0 previous. German IFO Expectations Index for July 2026 – Forecast 84.2, versus 84.1 previous. US Durable Goods Orders for June 2026 – Forecast +1.6% versus -4.5% previous.

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The falling oil prices reduced inflation fears and put downward pressure on bond yields. This introduced a correction in the U.S. dollar index. These developments supported the rally in gold and silver prices on Monday.

But the key event for the week is the Federal Reserve meeting, which will be crucial in making the next move in gold and silver. If the Fed’s message is hawkish, then it could lead to higher Treasury yields and squeeze gold towards the $4 000 handle. Silver could also soften on the back of higher rates, dampening investment demand and growth prospects.

Conversely, a more dovish Fed outlook would help to provide a stronger recovery in both metals as the dollar will weaken. But the central bank gold buying could keep supporting gold while silver might do even better if lower yields coincide with rising industrial demand.

Gold Price Forecast: $4,200 Breakout Could Open the Door to $5,000 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating above the $4,000 area and trading towards $4,200. The resistance at $4,200 is defined by the descending trend line that is stretching from March 2026 highs.

A break above $4,200 will push the price towards $4,350 and a break above $4,350 will open the door for a rally towards the $5,000 area. This area is seen by the resistance of the descending broadening wedge pattern.

Celestia [TIA] has been on the decline over the past couple of weeks, as the market appears to be settling into a more neutral position.

TIA has posted a 25% decline on a year-to-date basis, with the past day reflecting that neutral state through a 0.2% gain as of the time of writing.

The market appears caught in a tight spot, with uncertainty building over the price’s next direction.

TIA faces more token unlocks TIA will undergo a major token unlock, channeling the released tokens toward research and development for the blockchain. A token unlock distributes new tokens into the market, bumping the asset’s supply and weighing on its price.

The unlock will release roughly $62,000 into the market in less than 24 hours, with another $62,000 following in 48 hours—an amount likely to move the market significantly.

Source: DeFiLlama Beyond that, Celestia’s total value locked (TVL) remains at $0, reflecting how weak the blockchain’s performance has been. The chain generated just $53 in fees over the past day, underscoring the point.

This combination of weakening on-chain performance and an expected volume surge puts Celestia at major risk.

Funding and capital flows Despite the weakening on-chain metrics and the scheduled token unlock, sentiment around TIA has turned net positive, with investors showing a growing pattern of long bets in the market.

Funding Rate data over the past day has spiked significantly, reaching roughly 0.0049% on the chart, according to the latest reading. A positive Funding Rate implies more bulls than bears in the market, measured by the scale of leveraged positions open on the asset.

Source: CoinGlass Adding to this outlook is a massive inflow of capital into the market, reinforcing the bullish case.

To put this into perspective, Open Interest surged 23% over the past 24 hours, reaching a high of $57.52 million within that period.

The rising Funding Rate, at a time when Open Interest has also surged, signals that the new inflow of capital is being channeled toward long positioning in the market.

Liquidation levels are tight Liquidation heatmap analysis, which identifies clusters of buy and sell orders on the chart, shows TIA sitting in a tight spot from a liquidity perspective.

The asset carries distributed sell orders above price, matched by an equal depth of distributed buy orders below price.

This means price could swing either way—the asset could move up or down, since both clusters exert the same pull on price, and liquidation clusters are known to act like magnets.

Source: CoinGlass However, given the market’s tight positioning, momentum will be the key determinant of where price skews. With bulls currently in control, there’s a high chance of an upswing in price from current levels over the short to near term.

Final Summary Celestia is releasing a large batch of new tokens into the market within the next two days, which could add selling pressure on the price. Traders taking bullish bets have been growing fast, suggesting many expect the price to rise in the near term.

Meta Platforms (META -1.80%) closed Friday at $595.19, back under $600 and about 25% below its 52-week high of $796.25. At that price, the social media company trades at about 22 times earnings -- a lower multiple than the S&P 500's (^GSPC +0.05%) roughly 28.5. Meta reports second-quarter results after the close on Wednesday, July 29.

What the market is marking down, however, isn't the advertising business.

First-quarter revenue rose 33% year over year to $56.31 billion -- an acceleration from the 22% growth Meta posted for all of 2025. Ad impressions across its apps climbed 19%, average price per ad rose 12%, and family daily active people averaged 3.56 billion, up 4%.

A business losing ground does not put up numbers like that.

Image source: Getty Images.

The markdown is about the spending. Meta raised its 2026 capital expenditure range to $125 billion to $145 billion in April, and it spent $19.84 billion in the first quarter alone, up from an initial range of $115 billion to $135 billion. Investors have watched that range move up once already, and they appear to be pricing in the chance of it moving again.

Affording the bill is easier to establish than earning a return on it. Even after the first-quarter outlay, Meta generated $12.39 billion of free cash flow in the period and finished with $81.18 billion in cash and marketable securities. Its full-year total expense outlook of $162 billion to $169 billion was left unchanged, which suggests the spending increase is landing on the balance sheet instead of the income statement for now.

Wednesday should settle two things.

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Management guided second-quarter revenue to $58 billion to $61 billion. Against $47.52 billion in the same quarter last year, that range implies growth of 22% to 28%. That is a step down from the first quarter's 33%, though a deceleration already sitting in guidance is less dangerous than one that arrives as a surprise.

Revenue near the top of that range would suggest the advertising engine is still taking share of a growing market while the multiple sits below the index. A capital spending range that moves higher again would tell investors the payback period keeps stretching, which is the specific worry this drawdown has been about since April.

The average price per ad tends to move first. It rose 12% in the first quarter, and better targeting usually shows up there before it reaches the revenue total.

Ultimately, a business compounding revenue north of 20% at about 22 times earnings isn't priced for optimism. It's priced for the possibility that the money going into AI (artificial intelligence) infrastructure may not come back on any schedule investors can underwrite. That possibility is worth something. But the advertising numbers so far argue that a 25% discount may be overdone.

SANTA CLARA, Calif., July 26, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Silvaco Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: SVCO) (“Silvaco”), a leading provider of TCAD, EDA software, and semiconductor IP solutions, and NVIDIA, a global leader in accelerated computing and AI, today announced a collaboration to advance next-generation digital twins for semiconductor design and manufacturing using NVIDIA accelerated computing and AI.

Silvaco is combining decades of physics-based modeling expertise with NVIDIA’s accelerated computing, CUDA-X™ libraries, PhysicsNeMo, Omniverse libraries, and Nemotron open models to help customers build, train, and deploy high-fidelity digital twins capable of predicting, optimizing, and validating complex semiconductor systems with unprecedented speed and accuracy.

Together, Silvaco’s physics-based simulation portfolio and NVIDIA accelerated computing and AI will help customers design, simulate and optimize increasingly complex semiconductor technologies.

Partnership Focus Areas

GPU-Accelerated Physics Simulation

Silvaco intends to use NVIDIA accelerated computing and CUDA-X™ libraries to accelerate its semiconductor device, process, photonics, and multiphysics simulation solutions, enabling dramatic reductions in simulation runtimes and increased design productivity. As an early proof point, Silvaco completed a fully scaled 3D FDTD simulation of a photonic edge coupler with 3.2 billion mesh nodes on 32 NVIDIA GPUs connected with NVLink in under four hours. The workload did not converge on CPUs, and the result achieved less than 0.15 dB difference between measurement and simulation.

AI-Driven Surrogate Modeling

Silvaco intends to leverage NVIDIA PhysicsNeMo to develop customizable AI surrogate models that complement high-fidelity physics simulation and accelerate exploration of design alternatives.

Digital Twin Visualization and Collaboration

Silvaco plans to connect its digital twin environment with NVIDIA Omniverse libraries™ and NVIDIA Cosmos™ to deliver collaborative, real-time visualization and simulation environments spanning semiconductor fabs, manufacturing systems, robotics platforms and infrastructure applications to provide interactive visualization and collaboration across semiconductor design and manufacturing workflows.

Scaled Engineering Workflows

Silvaco aims to establish cloud-native workflows that support design, testing, and validation across distributed teams and compute environments.

Delivering Measurable Customer Value

By combining the technologies, Silvaco expects to help customers:

Reduce Simulation Cycles from Weeks to Days
GPU-accelerated simulation and AI-driven modeling will enable faster design iterations and reduced time-to-market.Improve Accuracy and Insight
High-fidelity digital twins will provide deeper visibility into system performance, enabling more precise validation and optimization.Scale Engineering and Collaboration
Cloud-based visualization and AI-driven workflows will enable global teams to collaborate more efficiently and execute complex simulations at scale.
“The convergence of physics-based simulation, accelerated computing, and artificial intelligence is transforming design and manufacturing,” said Walden C. Rhines, President and Chief Executive Officer of Silvaco. “By combining Silvaco’s deep expertise in semiconductor and multiphysics digital twins with NVIDIA’s industry-leading computing and AI platforms, we can help customers model increasingly complex systems with greater speed, fidelity, and confidence. Together, we are positioning the industry for a future where AI-powered digital twins can fundamentally transform how semiconductor technologies are designed, validated, and optimized.”

“Digital twins are becoming essential tools for engineering and manufacturing innovation,” said Da Yang, senior director of product, semiconductor and EDA at NVIDIA. “By using NVIDIA AI, open models, libraries and accelerated computing, Silvaco is connecting high-fidelity simulation, helping customers move faster from modeling to insight across semiconductor design and manufacturing.”

The combination of Silvaco and NVIDIA solutions is expected to enable advanced digital twin applications including:

Semiconductor process, device, packaging, and photonics simulationAI-assisted development of next-generation chips and advanced nodesFactory optimization and predictive manufacturing
This collaboration brings together Silvaco’s semiconductor modeling expertise with NVIDIA accelerated computing and AI to advance high-fidelity simulation, AI surrogate models, and digital twins across semiconductor design and manufacturing.

About Silvaco

Silvaco is a provider of AI-enabled TCAD and EDA solutions, and SIP solutions that enable semiconductor design and digital twin modeling through AI software and innovation. Silvaco’s solutions are used for semiconductor and photonics processes, devices, and systems development across display, power devices, automotive, memory, high-performance compute, foundries, photonics, internet of things, and 5G/6G mobile markets for complex SoC design. Silvaco is headquartered in Santa Clara, California, and has a global presence with offices located in North America, Europe, Brazil, China, Egypt, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, and Vietnam. Learn more at silvaco.com.

Safe Harbor Statement

This press release contains “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, each as amended, that are intended to be covered by the “safe harbor” provisions of those sections. Forward-looking statements give our current expectations and projections relating to our financial condition, results of operations, plans, objectives, future performance and business and can be identified by the fact that they do not relate strictly to historical or current facts. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by the use of words such as “anticipate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “estimate,” “potential,” “continue” and similar expressions, although not all forward-looking statements contain these words. These statements are based on the Company’s current expectations and assumptions and are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors, including those described in the Company’s most recent Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q and other filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied by forward-looking statements. The Company undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, except as required by law.

Media Contacts

Investor Relations:
[email protected] 

Media Relations:
[email protected] 

New long-running, fully agentic workflows spanning EDA to CAE multiply engineering productivity

Key Highlights

Synopsys unveils a fully autonomous long-running design verification agent that orchestrates the entire chip verification cycle delivering up to 50X faster time-to-validated RTL while achieving 20% additional coverage improvement Demonstrating Synopsys' first fully autonomous computer-aided engineering (CAE) workflow for thermal management and electronic device cooling capable of autonomously executing set-up, pre-processing, and post-processing in a fraction of the time required for manual approaches  Expanded portfolio of more than 20 GPU-accelerated Synopsys EDA and multiphysics products, including 18X speedup of PrimeSim™ SPICE simulations , /PRNewswire/ -- Today at the 2026 DAC Chips to Systems Conference, Synopsys, Inc. (NASDAQ: SNPS) announced advancements to agentic AI for engineering in collaboration with NVIDIA. Synopsys has developed fully autonomous, long-running agentic capabilities for chip design and electronics system design enabled with NVIDIA Nemotron on NVIDIA's accelerated computing platform and secured by the NVIDIA OpenShell runtime. Demonstrated at DAC for the first time, Synopsys' capabilities promise to be a force multiplier for R&D teams beyond task agents, transforming time-consuming chip verification and thermal simulation into automated insight delivery, engineering productivity, and system performance improvement engines.

"AI is fundamentally reshaping engineering, and Synopsys is at the forefront of this transformation, enabling fully autonomous agents across every stage of silicon and systems development," said Ravi Subramanian, Chief Product Management Officer at Synopsys. "Our close collaboration with NVIDIA continues to accelerate the development of next-generation AI technologies by combining Synopsys' domain expertise spanning EDA and CAE with NVIDIA's advanced AI infrastructure and technologies. Together, we are enabling a new class of autonomous engineering workflows that elevate productivity, unlock deeper insights, and help customers innovate faster."

"The future of engineering is agentic, where AI agents reason, plan, execute complex workflows and verify their own work across the entire product development lifecycle," said Tim Costa, Vice President and General Manager for Computational Engineering at NVIDIA. "Synopsys is using NVIDIA AI tools and accelerated computing to build simulation and AI physics agents that help teams close verification, automate thermal analysis and compress development cycles from weeks to hours." 

Introducing Synopsys' Fully Autonomous Design Verification (DV) Workflow
Coverage closure has been among the most significant bottlenecks in the DV process. Despite assistive tools, engineering teams spend significant labor and compute resources on incremental improvements. The companies are evolving the DV approach from tool-assisted to a goal-driven workflow that autonomously pursues coverage closure and traces root failure causes throughout development.

The solution, built on Synopsys' agentic AI platform and powered by Synopsys AgentEngineer™ technology and NVIDIA's agentic AI infrastructure — including NVIDIA Agent Toolkit, NVIDIA Nemotron 3 Ultra open model, and OpenShell runtime — features a fully autonomous, long-running orchestrator agent. The orchestrator agent deconstructs DV goals from specification, design, test repository, and user inputs, and orchestrates specialized agents and tools in a closed loop workflow spanning the full chip verification lifecycle, from test plan generation to coverage closure and advanced debug. Demonstrated at DAC, the end-to-end fully autonomous verification closure agentic flow compresses weeks of manual labor into hours of agentic execution that achieves up to 50X faster time-to-validated RTL with an additional 20% improvement in coverage.1

Autonomous Analog & Mixed-Signal (AMS) Workflows
AI-powered Custom Compiler™ Layout Synthesis (CCLS) is laying the foundation for autonomous analog and mixed-signal (AMS) design by automating layout generation, optimization, and design-layout convergence. Building on these capabilities, Synopsys AgentEngineer™ technology orchestrates multi-step analog flow spanning design creation, SPICE simulation, implementation, and verification. Engineers define design intent and performance goals in natural language, while autonomous agents execute and optimize the workflow, accelerating design closure and improving productivity by up to 3X.2

Delivering Autonomous Engineering Agents Across Design and Simulation
Synopsys developed a fully autonomous agentic CAE workflow for electronics thermal analysis using NVIDIA Agent Toolkit and NVIDIA CUDA-X libraries. Built with Ansys Icepak® electronics cooling simulation software — now part of the Synopsys portfolio — and open-source PyAEDT libraries, the agentic workflow autonomously executes simulation set-up, pre- and post-processing in a fraction of the time required for traditional approaches.

Extending the Value of GPU Acceleration to More Engineering Workflows
Synopsys continues to accelerate innovation with the industry's broadest portfolio of more than 20 GPU-enabled EDA and multiphysics products, unlocking deeper analysis and faster time-to-market across the design flow — from physical verification to photonics simulation. Recent developments include:

PrimeSim™ SPICE circuit simulations perform up to 18X faster leveraging NVIDIA GPUs.3 Synopsys QuantumATK® accelerates next-generation semiconductor material innovation by up to 50X for Gaussian-basis quantum chemistry simulations enabled by cuEST and up to 200x faster machine-learned force field simulations using NVIDIA Blackwell GPU infrastructure. Ansys Lumerical FDTD™ 3D electromagnetic simulation software achieved a 10X speedup on NVIDIA GPUs compared to CPUs when used within Synopsys' Multiphysics Fusion™ solution for analog and photonic design.  In addition, Synopsys continues its deep collaboration with NVIDIA leveraging CUDA-X libraries to accelerate its solvers, including cuLitho, cuDSS, cuEST, and use cases in development with the newly announced cuISS library. Availability
Customers are currently evaluating Synopsys' agentic EDA and CAE capabilities with availability planned for the second half of 2026. 

Follow Synopsys online for updates via our Newsroom, on LinkedIn, and on X. 

Join Synopsys at the 2026 DAC Chips to Systems Conference
This week at DAC, Synopsys is showcasing AI-powered engineering solutions that enable customers to rapidly design from silicon to system with increased quality, efficiency, precision, and scale. Attendees can visit Synopsys' booth #631 for demonstrations of newly announced autonomous workflows. For a complete list of Synopsys sessions and activities at DAC 2026, visit the Synopsys DAC 2026 event page. 

1 Compared to traditional verification workflows not powered by AgentEngineer technology.
2 AMS workflow leverages CCLS which delivers 3X gains in productivity.
3 PrimeSim SPICE delivered approximately 18X faster overall wall-clock time by introducing NVIDIA GPUs compared to CPU-only workloads.

About Synopsys
Synopsys, Inc. (Nasdaq: SNPS) is the leader in engineering solutions from silicon to systems, enabling customers to rapidly innovate AI-powered products. We deliver industry-leading silicon design, IP, simulation and analysis solutions, and design services. We partner closely with our customers across a wide range of industries to maximize their R&D capability and productivity, powering innovation today that ignites the ingenuity of tomorrow. Learn more at www.synopsys.com.

© 2026 Synopsys, Inc. All rights reserved. Synopsys, Ansys, the Synopsys and Ansys logos, and other Synopsys trademarks are available at https://www.synopsys.com/company/legal/trademarks-brands.html. Other company or product names may be trademarks of their respective owners.

Forward-Looking Statements  
This press release contains forward-looking statements, which involve risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause our actual results, time frames, or achievements to differ materially. Information on potential risks, uncertainties and other factors that could affect our results is included in filings we make with the SEC from time to time, including in the sections entitled "Risk Factors" in our latest Annual Report on Form 10-K and Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q. 

Media Contacts
Kelli Wheeler, [email protected]
Pete Smith, [email protected]
[email protected] 

SOURCE Synopsys, Inc.

Alphabet (GOOG +0.21%) (GOOGL +0.58%) is a major player in the artificial intelligence (AI) race. It's the largest of the four hyperscalers, and when it makes a decision, it sends ripples through the industry.

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai just made an announcement that will affect chipmakers Nvidia (NVDA -1.01%) and Broadcom (AVGO -2.88%), and it's good news -- at least for those two companies.

Following this announcement, Alphabet's stock slumped, but I think that actually created a better long-term buying opportunity. 

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai. Image source: Alphabet.

Alphabet continues to raise data center spending guidance After the closing bell on Wednesday, Alphabet released its Q2 results, and in that report, it hiked its guidance for 2026's data center capital expenditures.

Alphabet's initial capital expenditure guidance range for the year was between $175 billion and $185 billion. That range got boosted by $10 billion in conjunction with the Q1 report; now, it has been boosted in the same increment to $195 billion to $205 billion. The picture that this paints is that Alphabet may be publicly offering a forecast for its capex spending, but what's really going on is that management is basically giving itself a blank check for AI spending if computing capacity becomes available on a quicker timeline than previously expected.

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Another item that may worry investors is that Alphabet can no longer cover all this spending with the company's cash flow. Over the past 12 months, Alphabet generated $186 billion in cash from operations. That means that even if it spent all its cash flow on data centers, that still wouldn't be enough to cover this year's build-out. It also has share buyback plans and dividend obligations, so it will have to raise capital to fill this gap, which it has done.

The bulk of this spending is flowing to a handful of suppliers, including Broadcom and Nvidia. Nvidia makes broad-purpose GPUs that are popular options to rent on Google Cloud and other cloud platforms. Broadcom is the design partner behind Alphabet's custom AI chip, the Tensor Processing Unit (TPU). These are growing in popularity in its data centers, and Alphabet is also starting to sell them to outside customers.

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Any time Alphabet raises its capital expenditure guidance, shareholders in these two chip giants should get excited, as that likely signals an increase in their revenues.

Investors in Alphabet were less than pleased with news of its latest capex budget hike, so its stock sold off on the news. I think that was a mistake, too, as Alphabet has proven it can turn the computing resources it is bringing online into immediate profit centers, as evidenced by Google Cloud's 82% growth rate. While it's not a popular decision on Wall Street yet, I think Alphabet's move to spend more on data center platforms is the right one, and positions it strongly for the long term.

Keithen Drury has positions in Alphabet, Broadcom, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Broadcom, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.

A 62-year-old who wants to stop working but delay Social Security faces a specific math problem: cover about $3,400 a month, or $40,800 a year, from portfolio income alone until the checks start. That is roughly the average retired-worker benefit at full retirement age, and it is the gap this bridge portfolio has to fill.

The Social Security Administration’s rules make the stakes clear. Claim at 62 and benefits are cut by up to 30% below the full retirement age amount, while waiting past full retirement age adds roughly 8% per year up to age 70. Every year a portfolio can carry the household is a permanent raise on the benefit.

The formula is simple: income target divided by yield equals capital required.

The Conservative Tier: 3% to 4% Yield At a 3.5% blended yield, replacing $40,800 a year requires about $1,165,714 in capital. That is the price of the “sleep at night” portfolio built around dividend-growth blue chips and regulated utilities.

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ | JNJ Price Prediction) is the archetype. The company just raised its quarterly payout to $1.34 a share, extending a streak from $0.25 in Q1 1999 to today. Shares trade near $258, putting the current yield close to 2.1%, with the stock up 56% over the past year.

Alliant Energy (NASDAQ:LNT) shows the utility profile: a quarterly payout of $0.535, a 2.8% yield, and management’s guidance for more than 6% compound annual earnings growth supported by 3.4 GW of contracted data-center demand. Modest yield, but the dividend keeps rising.

The tradeoff at this tier is capital. Most 62-year-olds bridging to Social Security do not have $1.16 million liquid outside their home.

The Moderate Tier: 5% to 7% Yield At a 5% blended yield, the capital requirement drops to $816,000. This is the zone of high-dividend banks, preferred shares, REITs, and covered-call equity funds.

East West Bancorp (NASDAQ:EWBC) illustrates the growth-oriented end. The bank just declared an $0.80 quarterly dividend, up from $0.60 a year ago, and posted EPS of $9.87 on 17% return on equity. The current yield sits under 1%, but the growth rate is aggressive.

Investors need the yield itself here, which typically comes from preferred stock funds, mortgage REITs held in moderation, and midstream energy names paying in the 5% to 7% range.

The Aggressive Tier: 8% to 14% Yield Push the blended yield to 10% and the capital drops to $408,000. Push it to 12% and it drops to $340,000. A $550,000 portfolio generates $3,400 a month at a blended yield of about 7.4%.

Plains All American Pipeline (NASDAQ:PAA) anchors the midstream slice. The partnership pays $0.4175 per unit quarterly, or $1.67 annualized, after a distribution progression from $0.3175 in 2024 to today’s rate. Units trade at roughly $24, and 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance was raised to a $2.88 billion midpoint. Investors receive a K-1, not a 1099, which complicates IRA use.

AGNC Investment (NASDAQ:AGNC) shows the mortgage-REIT extreme: $0.12 monthly, or $1.44 a year, against a $11 share price. That produces a 13.4% yield. The catch: management cut the payout from $0.16 to $0.12 in 2020, book value swings with mortgage spreads, and the current $9 book value is below the share price.

Why Yield Alone Misses the Story Over 30 years, a 3.5% starting yield that grows 8% annually crushes a static 12% yield. JNJ’s payout climbed from $3.32 a year in 2017 to $5.24 trailing today. AGNC’s moved the opposite direction. For a 62-year-old bridging five to eight years to Social Security, that gap is manageable. For a 45-year-old, it is disqualifying.

The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.6% and Fed funds at 3.75% to 4%, so income investors are not being forced into the aggressive tier the way they were a few years ago.

Three Actions Before Writing the Checks Price the delay. Compare the eight-year cost of drawing $40,800 from the portfolio against the permanent benefit uplift from waiting until 70. The 8% annual credit compounds. Stress-test the aggressive tier. Model AGNC or a similar mREIT with a 25% distribution cut and a 20% price drawdown, matching its 2020 pattern. If the bridge still holds, the allocation is defensible. Segregate the K-1 names. Hold PAA and other MLPs in a taxable account to avoid UBTI issues inside an IRA, and factor state tax filings into the after-tax yield. Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

Shares of SLB (SLB +11.01%) climbed last week after the oilfield services leader reported higher-than-expected sales and profits.

Image source: Getty Images.

Energy security and AI-fueled gains SLB's revenue rose 5% year over year to $8.97 billion in the second quarter.

CEO Olivier Le Peuch said the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving its customers to prioritize "energy security, supply diversification, and production capacity expansion." Companies are also investing in technology to extend the useful lives of their energy assets.

At the same time, SLB is expanding into lucrative new markets. First among these is the artificial intelligence (AI) industry, for which SLB offers modular infrastructure manufacturing, engineering, and design services.

SLB's data center revenue soared 80%, placing it on pace to surpass a $1 billion annualized run rate by the end of 2026 and $2 billion by the end of next year.

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All told, SLB's adjusted earnings checked in at $0.55. That topped Wall Street's estimates, which had called for per-share profits of $0.52, according to Yahoo! Finance.

Demand for SLB's offerings is set to rise War in the Middle East is forcing governments and companies to rethink their energy strategies. Dependable energy supplies are becoming even more valuable, and the businesses that can help to ensure them are likely to see rising demand for their services in the coming years.

SLB, as a respected leader in the oil and gas services industry, is well-positioned to help meet the world's need for reliable and cost-effective energy.

Joe Tenebruso has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

By PYMNTS  |  July 26, 2026

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Robinhood is reportedly in talks with Crypto.com to expand its prediction market footprint.

That’s according to a report Friday (July 24) by The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), citing sources familiar with the matter. The report noted that Robinhood has so far worked with companies like Kalshi to supply betting contracts for its prediction platform, though the companies are now more like rivals than partners.

Under this proposed partnership, Crypto.com’s prediction market business would be added to Robinhood’s prediction hub, letting users place yes-or-no bets offered by the crypto company on Robinhood’s trading platform, the sources said. The report added there are no guarantees the two companies will reach an agreement. 

PYMNTS has contacted Robinhood and Crypto.com for comment but hasn’t yet gotten a response. A spokesperson for Kalshi declined to comment.

A spokesperson for Robinhood told WSJ the company “will continue to partner with multiple exchanges to ensure our customers have access to a diverse and resilient marketplace.”

As the report noted, Crypto.com debuted its stand-alone prediction markets platform OG in February, and has offered prediction markets contracts through its derivatives business since late 2024. Last year, Crypto.com announced a collaboration with President Trump’s media business to introduce prediction markets directly on the social media platform Truth Social, though that has yet to launch.

Kalshi, meanwhile, has been at the forefront of the prediction wave in the U.S., seeing $27 billion in volume for World Cup-related markets, versus around $1 billion for the Super Bowl.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told WSJ the company plans to expand its range of tradable assets beyond just events-based contracts, and called Robinhood a top competitor. 

“They’re a partner of ours at the same time they’re competing with us, and I think that’s also great,” he said. “We’ll see who ends up with a better product.”

In other prediction market news, PYMNTS wrote last week about the industry’s contribution to a world in which gambling “is no longer simply a single, static industry,” thanks to the rise of companies like Kalshi, sports betting apps, and crypto exchanges.

“As artificial intelligence personalizes financial products, prediction markets and digital commerce, it will create new questions for executives across financial services, media and digital commerce,” that report said. “The future may not involve convincing consumers to gamble more. It may involve making every digital interaction feel just uncertain enough that they cannot resist checking one more time.”

Bitcoin remains in a bear market but may be entering its final stretch, according to a chart analyst tracking the cryptocurrency’s historical four-year cycle, with a possible bottom forming as soon as October.

A Cycle Bitcoin Has Followed Before

Bitcoin has historically moved through roughly one year of bear market followed by three years of bull market, based on patterns dating back to prior cycles. The current downturn began after Bitcoin’s October 2025 high, putting the cryptocurrency roughly on track to enter its final quarter of decline, the analyst said.

Bitcoin has already reached the full $66,230 to $76,640 resistance zone for Q3, a level the analyst had flagged in advance as the ceiling for this stage of the cycle. A rejection from resistance could open a path down toward $56,500, then $44,000, with $39,000 identified as a further downside target if selling accelerates.

Near-Term Levels to Watch

On shorter timeframes, Bitcoin was rejected near $66,300 in mid-July before breaking below a rising trend line, which now sits near $65,300 and could act as resistance going forward. Near-term support sits in a zone between $59,369 and $62,533, the analyst says, describing this as the key area to watch heading into the weekly close.

A separate resistance band between $64,922 and $66,227 is also being tracked as a ceiling for any short-term bounce, based on Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the recent high.

Seasonal Patterns Point to a Volatile August

Seasonality data reviewed by the analyst shows that August and September have historically been weak months for Bitcoin during past bear market years, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, while July has typically been the strongest month of any bear market year. In 2022, Bitcoin extended gains into mid-August before reversing, a pattern the analyst said could repeat, though he warned it isn’t a scenario he would trade aggressively.

A Separate Timing Model Points to October

A separate cycle-tracking tool used by the analyst identifies a dominant 260-day rhythm in Bitcoin’s price action. That model correctly flagged a cycle top forming in late May, which was followed by the current selloff. Based on that same rhythm, the tool points to a possible major low forming around October this year, with a margin of two to four weeks in either direction.

The analyst stressed that both the seasonal and cycle-based tools describe general tendencies rather than precise forecasts, and that no method can guarantee exactly when or where Bitcoin’s bear market will conclude.

Story Ends Here

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Bitcoin trades around $64,150 as Trump pauses Iran strikes, ETF outflows jump

Bitcoin

27 July 2026 | 00:20 The Bank of Japan holds its next monetary policy meeting on July 30 and 31, six weeks after raising its policy rate to 1%, the highest level in 31 years.

Key Takeaways BOJ meets July 30–31, after the Fed. Markets expect rates to remain at 1%. The Outlook Report is the main variable. Faster hikes would strengthen the yen. Government pressure complicates the policy path. Bitcoin’s risk comes through carry trades. Markets place little probability on another immediate hike. The focus is whether Governor Kazuo Ueda and the Policy Board encourage investors to expect the following move earlier than the current consensus.

Bitcoin is absent from the meeting agenda. The Bank of Japan’s published schedule lists the monetary policy statement, quarterly Outlook Report and Ueda’s press conference, with no mention of cryptocurrency.

The connection is indirect. A more restrictive policy path strengthens the yen, raises Japanese bond yields and makes borrowing in Japan to finance investments elsewhere less attractive. A rapid reduction in those positions puts pressure on Bitcoin alongside equities and other liquid risk assets.

BOJ Guidance Has Already Moved the Yen On July 22, Bloomberg reported that BOJ officials were open to raising rates faster than economists anticipated if continued yen weakness added to inflation risk. Policymakers reportedly saw growing evidence that companies were passing higher costs on to consumers.

The yen strengthened and short-term Japanese government bond yields rose after the report. USD/JPY fell towards 162.65 from above 163, despite the bank making no official policy announcement.

That reaction shows how sensitive markets are to the timing of the next move. Most BOJ watchers expect another hike in December, while a Reuters poll conducted before the June decision found that 86% of economists put the rate at 1.25% by the end of 2026. October and December were the most common forecasts.

The July Outlook Report will test that timetable. Language supporting a faster pace pulls the next hike forward, while a more cautious assessment reverses some of the yen strength and bond-market repricing already in place.

A Hold at 1% Remains the Base Case Financial markets have most likely largely priced out a July move. The BOJ raised rates by 25 basis points in June, while Japan’s core consumer inflation remained at 1.6% that month, below the 2% target for a fifth consecutive reading.

Tokyo inflation data, published before the national figures, remains one of the earliest signals capable of shifting rate expectations.

The tightening cycle likely has further to run. In a June 3 speech, Ueda said the bank would continue raising rates if economic activity, prices and financial conditions developed in line with its outlook.

The BOJ’s April projections placed inflation between 2.5% and 3% for fiscal 2026. The bank also warned that yen weakness raises the cost of imported fuel, food and raw materials.

Reuters sources indicate that the July report may lift the fiscal 2026 growth forecast while retaining the warning about an inflation overshoot. Import costs and strong demand linked to artificial intelligence investment offset some of the relief created by lower oil prices.

The likely outcome is an unchanged rate accompanied by guidance that keeps another hike firmly under consideration.

The Government Wants Lower Rates and a Stronger Yen Domestic politics complicate the BOJ’s position.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi entered office promising investment-led growth supported by heavy public spending, an agenda that benefits from lower borrowing costs. Reuters reported in June that her government was trying to restore a more dovish balance on the BOJ board. Her first appointee, Toichiro Asada, voted against the June hike.

Former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai described personnel appointments as the administration’s strongest lever, since direct public criticism of monetary policy risks unsettling markets. The government’s first economic blueprint also calls for policy to support its growth programme.

Yet further yen weakness raises import prices and household expenses. Toshihiro Nagahama, a government panel member and economic adviser to Takaichi, said in July that the BOJ should continue raising rates gradually to correct excessive currency depreciation.

The government therefore favours slower tightening while also wanting relief from a weak yen. That conflict makes a surprise move less attractive, and it also limits the bank’s ability to signal that the hiking cycle is finished.

The Federal Reserve Sets the Backdrop First The Federal Open Market Committee meets on July 28 and 29, two days before the BOJ decision. Its target range currently stands at 3.5% to 3.75%.

Markets are not fully committed to a hold. CME FedWatch put the probability of an unchanged range at 62.1%, leaving 37.9% odds of a hike to 3.75%-4%.

Federal Reserve target rate probabilities for the upcoming July 29, 2026 meeting. That pricing matters for how the BOJ decision lands. A US hike would widen the rate gap and cushion the yen against hawkish Japanese guidance two days later. A hold accompanied by softer language would leave the yen more exposed to whatever the BOJ signals.

July is a non-projection meeting, so there will be no updated dot plot. Markets will instead focus on the statement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

The wide gap between US and Japanese rates helps preserve the appeal of borrowing in yen and investing in higher-yielding dollar assets. USD/JPY responds to expectations for both central banks, and yen weakness through 2026 has tracked the US path as closely as the Japanese one.

A hawkish Fed supports the dollar and softens the effect of stricter BOJ guidance. A more dovish Fed makes a hawkish signal from Japan more powerful by favouring yen appreciation from both sides of the exchange rate.

How the Yen Carry Trade Reaches Bitcoin The yen carry trade involves borrowing in Japan at comparatively low rates, converting the funds into another currency and investing in assets offering higher potential returns.

The position remains attractive while Japanese funding stays cheap and the yen fails to strengthen enough to erase the investment gain. When rate expectations rise or the currency appreciates sharply, those trades become less profitable and often need to be reduced.

Bitcoin feels the effect without ever being purchased with borrowed yen. Such financing is used across equities, bonds, currencies and derivatives, so when losses or margin requirements increase, funds sell liquid assets across their portfolios.

Institutional carry positions take days or weeks to unwind. Crypto derivatives react faster, since leveraged perpetual positions are liquidated within hours once prices move against crowded traders. We documented that pattern in March, when a single risk-off session wiped out $588 million in crypto positions, roughly $493 million of it long.

Bitcoin is particularly exposed during those periods because it trades continuously and can be sold while traditional markets are closed. James Butterfill, CoinShares’ head of research, described carry-trade reversals as global liquidity shocks rather than isolated currency events.

The greatest risk emerges when Japanese rate expectations rise, the yen strengthens and leveraged investors begin cutting positions at the same time.

Four Ways the BOJ Decision Could Play Out BOJ Outcomes and the Likely Bitcoin Impact Scenario Likelihood Policy Outcome Yen / Bond Reaction Bitcoin & Risk Asset Impact Balanced Hold Most likely Rates at 1%; future moves left dependent on inflation, wages and growth Reverses part of the recent yen strength and bond-yield rise Neutral; Fed decision, ETF flows and market structure take over Hawkish Hold Live risk Rates at 1%; growth forecast lifted, inflation-overshoot warning retained Yen strengthens; next hike priced forward from December to October or September Negative if derivatives leverage is elevated when the report lands Surprise Hike Least likely Rates unexpectedly raised to 1.25% Rapid yen rally; Japanese bond yields move sharply higher Clearest downside; forced selling appears fast in round-the-clock crypto markets Dovish Hold Possible Rates at 1%; weak consumption and softer core inflation emphasised Yen weakens; cheap funding preserved Short-term support, with higher intervention risk later  Rates Stay at 1% With Balanced Guidance This probably remains the most likely and least disruptive result.

The BOJ leaves future moves dependent on inflation, wages and growth without indicating that the next hike is imminent. A cautious Outlook Report would probably reverse part of the yen strength and bond-yield rise seen this week.

Bitcoin then might respond more to the Federal Reserve’s decision, ETF flows and its own market structure than to Japan.

Rates Stay at 1% With a Hawkish Outlook An unchanged rate still pressures risk assets if the BOJ lifts its growth forecast, retains its inflation-overshoot warning or suggests that the interval between hikes may shorten.

Traders would pull expectations for the next move forward from December towards October or September. That supports the yen and raises the cost of maintaining short-yen positions.

An official BOJ document carries more weight than a report based on unnamed sources, so the reaction would likely exceed what markets showed on July 22. Bitcoin’s response depends heavily on how much leverage sits in derivatives markets when the announcement arrives.

The BOJ Unexpectedly Raises Rates to 1.25% This is the least likely outcome and the clearest short-term downside risk.

Markets have largely priced out a July move, the bank acted only in June, and BOJ decisions are normally prepared through public communication. Political pressure for a gentler path further reduces the incentive to surprise investors.

That positioning is what would make an unexpected hike disruptive. Markets would need to reassess both the current rate and the timing of future tightening, producing a rapid yen rally and higher Japanese bond yields.

Forced selling might appear quickly in Bitcoin because crypto markets remain open around the clock.

A Dovish Hold Delays the Next Move The BOJ emphasises weak consumption, economic uncertainty or the recent softening in core inflation.

That could weaken the yen and preserve cheap funding, offering short-term support to Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Further currency depreciation carries a later cost. Higher import prices increase political pressure and raise the probability of a stronger response from either the BOJ or Japan’s Ministry of Finance.

Currency Intervention Remains a Separate Risk Foreign-exchange intervention is authorised by the Ministry of Finance and executed by the BOJ as its agent. It requires no monetary policy meeting and arrives without advance notice.

Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama has repeatedly warned against excessive currency moves as the yen weakened during 2026. A confirmed intervention would produce a sharp appreciation within minutes.

For Bitcoin, the immediate effect resembles a surprise rate hike. A sudden yen rally places pressure on leveraged carry positions even while the policy rate stays unchanged.

A dovish BOJ decision therefore lowers the immediate rate risk while raising the chance of intervention if USD/JPY climbs further.

July 2024 Shows How an Unwind Can Escalate The BOJ raised its policy rate to 0.25% on July 31, 2024, alongside a plan to reduce purchases of Japanese government bonds.

The yen had already begun strengthening, and the decision accelerated the change in rate expectations. Investors started cutting leveraged positions financed in the Japanese currency.

Pressure intensified days later when weak US employment data triggered the Sahm Rule recession indicator, alongside soft manufacturing figures. Bitcoin fell more than 15% on August 5 and briefly traded below $50,000, while equities and other cryptocurrencies also declined.

Describing the event as a BOJ-driven Bitcoin crash would leave out important causes. The rate hike, yen appreciation, US recession fears and crowded positioning arrived within the same period.

Bitcoin’s worst week of 2026 followed the same shape, with ETF outflows, forced liquidations and a macro rotation hitting at once.

The broader crypto sell-off reflected a global retreat from risk, with the carry-trade reversal amplifying pressure that weak US data had already created.

January 2025 Shows Why Expectations Matter The BOJ raised its policy rate to 0.5% on January 24, 2025. Unlike the July 2024 move, the increase had been clearly signalled and was widely anticipated.

The yen strengthened while global risk markets absorbed the decision without widespread forced selling. Bitcoin traded near $105,000 and was approximately 1.8% higher later that day, according to Reuters market data.

Changes in US cryptocurrency policy also supported Bitcoin, so the BOJ decision worked alongside other influences. The comparison still holds: a Japanese rate rise on its own rarely produces a crypto sell-off. Our review of how Bitcoin reacted through the 2022-2023 Fed hiking cycle found the same pattern in the United States, where positioning ahead of each meeting shaped the response more than the policy outcome itself.

The result depends on how much of the move has already been priced, how strongly the yen responds and whether leveraged positions are forced to close.

What to Watch During the Meeting USD/JPY: A sharp decline would signal yen strength and pressure on short-yen positions. Japanese two-year yields: These reflect expectations for the BOJ’s near-term policy path. Bitcoin open interest: Elevated positioning would increase the risk of forced liquidations. Funding rates: Extreme readings would reveal crowded directional exposure. Global equities: A simultaneous decline would support a broader deleveraging explanation. A Bitcoin decline accompanied by falling open interest suggests positions are being closed or liquidated. Weakness with open interest still rising indicates traders adding new bearish exposure.

What Determines the Reaction July 2024 showed how a yen rally amplifies broader selling when leverage is high and other macroeconomic concerns are already present. January 2025 showed that a well-telegraphed hike passes without a Bitcoin decline.

This meeting arrives with the yen near multi-decade lows, a Fed decision two days earlier, fresh reporting that the bank may move faster than expected, a government pulling against the pace, and an intervention risk that needs no meeting at all. Whether July 31 registers as a routine policy update or a broader liquidity shock depends on the surprise, the yen’s response and the leverage built around the decision.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and analytical purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Central-bank decisions can produce sudden volatility, while historical market reactions do not guarantee similar future results. Methodology: Meeting dates, policy rates and official guidance are sourced from the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. The July 22 report on the BOJ’s openness to faster tightening is based on Bloomberg reporting using unnamed sources and has not been confirmed by the bank. Political context and market expectations use Reuters reporting, while the crypto liquidity assessment references CoinShares research. Market levels are stated as of July 27, 2026. Author

Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.

Fed Rate Decision Pits 104 Economists Against a 36% Hike Bet

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Cashier in a warehouse that receives payments and transactions in bitcoin.

AFP via Getty Images

Bitcoin began as peer-to-peer electronic cash, but the market gave it a different job. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has become crypto’s benchmark investment asset: something to accumulate, custody, borrow against, and measure against. Stablecoins, meanwhile, became the industry’s practical payment rail.

That split made sense. Bitcoin’s volatility, confirmation times, and tax complexity made it awkward for everyday spending, while stablecoins offered the thing merchants and users actually needed: a familiar unit of account that could move quickly across digital rails. Bitcoin became the asset people did not want to spend. Stablecoins became the money they could.

The gap is becoming more visible as stablecoins move deeper into mainstream payment infrastructure. Visa said its stablecoin settlement pilot now supports nine blockchains and had reached a $7 billion annualized settlement run rate as of March 2026. That does not mean stablecoins have solved every payments problem, but it does show which part of crypto is being absorbed most quickly into commercial finance.

Bitcoin is now facing the opposite question. It does not need to prove that it can be held. It needs to prove that it can move in ways that create useful economic activity. More specifically, it raises a question for the companies that secure the network: can miners evolve from passive validators into active participants in Bitcoin’s payment economy?

For most of Bitcoin’s history, miners have had a narrow but essential role: secure the network, validate transactions, and earn block rewards plus transaction fees. Yet block rewards decline with each halving, which means Bitcoin’s long-term economics increasingly depend on whether transaction activity can become a more meaningful source of revenue. That transition is still far from complete. Hashrate Index reported that during the week of July 13, 2026, miners collected roughly 2,914 BTC in block rewards, while transaction fees accounted for only 20 BTC, or 0.69% of block rewards.

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That is the opening for a new kind of mining question. If miners can help facilitate payment activity, not just secure final settlement, they may open a revenue model that complements block rewards and transaction fees while pushing Bitcoin closer to its original payment vision.

Stablecoins Won The First Crypto Payments CycleThe reason stablecoins became crypto’s payment layer is not hard to understand. They removed the hardest part of spending crypto: price uncertainty. A user sending dollars on-chain does not have to worry that tomorrow’s price will make today’s purchase look expensive. A merchant receiving dollar-equivalent value does not have to become a crypto treasury manager.

Bitcoin payments never had that luxury. The stronger Bitcoin’s investment narrative became, the harder it was to frame spending as rational consumer behavior. For many holders, paying with Bitcoin still feels less like using money and more like selling an appreciating asset.

That does not mean Bitcoin payments disappeared. It means they moved into infrastructure debates: Lightning channels, custodial wallets, merchant processors, fiat conversion, and now potentially miner-linked payment models. The market is no longer waiting for Bitcoin holders to suddenly behave like debit-card users. It is trying to make Bitcoin spendable without making the user experience feel like a raw blockchain transaction.

Coins.ph offers a recent example of that approach. The company expanded its QRPh crypto payment functionality to include Bitcoin and Ethereum, allowing users to spend crypto at an estimated 700,000 QRPh-enabled merchants in the Philippines, with crypto converted into Philippine pesos at checkout.

That matters because it does not ask merchants to price goods in Bitcoin or manage crypto settlement risk. It lets users spend from crypto balances through a familiar domestic payment framework.

Wei Zhou, CEO of Coins.ph, said user behavior suggests consumers “value the flexibility and wealth potential of holding assets like Bitcoin,” but prefer spending crypto through “familiar local payment rails like QRPh” rather than dealing with raw crypto transactions. He added that stablecoins have been the primary token used since Coins.ph introduced QRPh crypto payments, followed closely by Bitcoin, despite Bitcoin being added later.

That is the useful lesson. Bitcoin may re-enter payments not by replacing local currency at checkout, but by becoming one balance users can spend through systems they already understand.

The Miner Incentive Is DifferentIf Bitcoin payments grow, the most obvious beneficiaries are wallets, processors, and exchanges. But miners have a deeper structural reason to care.

Miners are paid to secure Bitcoin, but the long-term design of Bitcoin assumes that transaction fees become more important over time as newly issued Bitcoin declines. That creates a quiet tension. Bitcoin holders are often incentivized to hold, while miners ultimately benefit from activity.

This is where payment infrastructure becomes relevant to mining economics. If miners remain purely passive validators, they simply wait for transaction demand to appear. But if miners can help create, route, prioritize, or commercially support payment activity, they move closer to the transaction economy itself.

That is the broader significance of GoMining’s GoBTC Pay. According to the company’s launch announcement, GoMining introduced GoBTC Pay, a Bitcoin payment protocol that uses its own mining pool to prioritize transaction confirmation and targets 12-hour final on-chain settlement by the end of 2026. Because this is a company press release, those details should be treated as GoMining’s stated product roadmap rather than independent evidence of market adoption.

The product itself is less important than the model it represents. It treats mining capacity as part of the payment experience, not just a background security function.

Boy George, CEO of GoMining, framed the shift as miners becoming “no longer limited to monetizing security alone.” By participating in payment infrastructure, he said, miners can take part more directly in “commercial activity taking place on the network.”

That is the central market-structure question. If Bitcoin payments become a real economic layer, miners may not only collect fees after transactions arrive. They may help shape the infrastructure that causes more transactions to happen.

A New Revenue Layer, Or A New Control Surface?The opportunity is clear. A miner-linked payments model could give miners exposure to transaction volume in a way that is more predictable than waiting for episodic fee spikes. GoMining says that with GoBTC Pay, 0.1% of each transaction’s value is allocated to miners in its pool for settling the transaction on the network.

That kind of model points toward a broader possibility: miners earning from payment activity as a service layer, not only from block rewards and standard transaction fees. In traditional payments, networks and processors monetize volume. Bitcoin has historically separated network security from the consumer payment experience. Miner-led payment models begin to blur that line.

The risk is equally obvious. Bitcoin’s credibility comes from open participation and neutral settlement. If reliable payment flows depend on a small number of large miners or dedicated pools, Bitcoin payments could become faster and more commercial, but also more dependent on specific infrastructure providers.

That tradeoff matters because Bitcoin’s existing payment infrastructure has largely developed through service layers such as Lightning, custodial wallets, payment processors, and exchange-linked merchant tools. Those systems already show that usability usually requires abstraction. The question is whether miner involvement adds a useful economic layer or creates another point of dependency around settlement.

George acknowledged the concentration risk in principle, saying the goal “should not be to concentrate payment activity around a small group of miners,” but to create incentives for broader participation across the ecosystem.

That is the design challenge. The strongest version of miner-led payments would expand miner participation and improve Bitcoin’s commercial usefulness. The weakest version would simply create another privileged gateway, this time attached to block production.

Bitcoin Payments May Return Through AbstractionThe mistake is assuming Bitcoin payments have to return in their original form to matter. A purist vision would have users spending Bitcoin directly, merchants holding Bitcoin, and the transaction settling natively with minimal intermediation. That remains philosophically clean, but commercially limited.

The more likely path is layered. Consumers spend from crypto balances. Merchants receive local currency. Payment providers manage conversion and compliance. Lightning or other infrastructure handles speed where appropriate. Miners, in some models, help connect settlement activity to mining economics.

Zhou’s view reflects that practical direction. For Bitcoin to become a payment asset again, he said the ecosystem must abstract volatility for merchants through “instantaneous, low-fee Layer-2 scaling networks and automated, real-time fiat conversion at checkout.” He also connected the miner question directly to Bitcoin’s payment future, arguing that miners can become “active payment facilitators and liquidity providers” as block rewards diminish.

That does not mean Bitcoin will displace stablecoins in payments. Stablecoins still have the clearer product-market fit for everyday settlement because they match how consumers and merchants account for value. But Bitcoin has something stablecoins do not: the deepest brand, liquidity, and security profile in crypto.

The question is whether that can be converted into payment utility without breaking the investment narrative that made Bitcoin valuable in the first place.

For miners, this is not nostalgia for Satoshi’s white paper. It is a business model question. If Bitcoin remains mostly dormant monetary property, miners remain tied to block rewards, transaction fees, treasury strategy, power markets, and adjacent infrastructure plays. If Bitcoin payment activity grows, miners may have a path to participate in a wider commercial economy built around the network they secure.

The next phase of Bitcoin payments may therefore look less like a consumer revolution and more like an infrastructure realignment. Stablecoins have already shown that crypto payments work best when users do not have to think about the underlying rails. Bitcoin may need the same lesson.

If miners become part of that stack, their role in Bitcoin changes. They are no longer only securing the ledger. They are helping create the economic activity the ledger is meant to record.

Cashier in a warehouse that receives payments and transactions in bitcoin.

AFP via Getty Images

Bitcoin began as peer-to-peer electronic cash, but the market gave it a different job. Over the past decade, Bitcoin has become crypto’s benchmark investment asset: something to accumulate, custody, borrow against, and measure against. Stablecoins, meanwhile, became the industry’s practical payment rail.

That split made sense. Bitcoin’s volatility, confirmation times, and tax complexity made it awkward for everyday spending, while stablecoins offered the thing merchants and users actually needed: a familiar unit of account that could move quickly across digital rails. Bitcoin became the asset people did not want to spend. Stablecoins became the money they could.

The gap is becoming more visible as stablecoins move deeper into mainstream payment infrastructure. Visa said its stablecoin settlement pilot now supports nine blockchains and had reached a $7 billion annualized settlement run rate as of March 2026. That does not mean stablecoins have solved every payments problem, but it does show which part of crypto is being absorbed most quickly into commercial finance.

Bitcoin is now facing the opposite question. It does not need to prove that it can be held. It needs to prove that it can move in ways that create useful economic activity. More specifically, it raises a question for the companies that secure the network: can miners evolve from passive validators into active participants in Bitcoin’s payment economy?

For most of Bitcoin’s history, miners have had a narrow but essential role: secure the network, validate transactions, and earn block rewards plus transaction fees. Yet block rewards decline with each halving, which means Bitcoin’s long-term economics increasingly depend on whether transaction activity can become a more meaningful source of revenue. That transition is still far from complete. Hashrate Index reported that during the week of July 13, 2026, miners collected roughly 2,914 BTC in block rewards, while transaction fees accounted for only 20 BTC, or 0.69% of block rewards.

MORE FOR YOU

That is the opening for a new kind of mining question. If miners can help facilitate payment activity, not just secure final settlement, they may open a revenue model that complements block rewards and transaction fees while pushing Bitcoin closer to its original payment vision.

Stablecoins Won The First Crypto Payments CycleThe reason stablecoins became crypto’s payment layer is not hard to understand. They removed the hardest part of spending crypto: price uncertainty. A user sending dollars on-chain does not have to worry that tomorrow’s price will make today’s purchase look expensive. A merchant receiving dollar-equivalent value does not have to become a crypto treasury manager.

Bitcoin payments never had that luxury. The stronger Bitcoin’s investment narrative became, the harder it was to frame spending as rational consumer behavior. For many holders, paying with Bitcoin still feels less like using money and more like selling an appreciating asset.

That does not mean Bitcoin payments disappeared. It means they moved into infrastructure debates: Lightning channels, custodial wallets, merchant processors, fiat conversion, and now potentially miner-linked payment models. The market is no longer waiting for Bitcoin holders to suddenly behave like debit-card users. It is trying to make Bitcoin spendable without making the user experience feel like a raw blockchain transaction.

Coins.ph offers a recent example of that approach. The company expanded its QRPh crypto payment functionality to include Bitcoin and Ethereum, allowing users to spend crypto at an estimated 700,000 QRPh-enabled merchants in the Philippines, with crypto converted into Philippine pesos at checkout.

That matters because it does not ask merchants to price goods in Bitcoin or manage crypto settlement risk. It lets users spend from crypto balances through a familiar domestic payment framework.

Wei Zhou, CEO of Coins.ph, said user behavior suggests consumers “value the flexibility and wealth potential of holding assets like Bitcoin,” but prefer spending crypto through “familiar local payment rails like QRPh” rather than dealing with raw crypto transactions. He added that stablecoins have been the primary token used since Coins.ph introduced QRPh crypto payments, followed closely by Bitcoin, despite Bitcoin being added later.

That is the useful lesson. Bitcoin may re-enter payments not by replacing local currency at checkout, but by becoming one balance users can spend through systems they already understand.

The Miner Incentive Is DifferentIf Bitcoin payments grow, the most obvious beneficiaries are wallets, processors, and exchanges. But miners have a deeper structural reason to care.

Miners are paid to secure Bitcoin, but the long-term design of Bitcoin assumes that transaction fees become more important over time as newly issued Bitcoin declines. That creates a quiet tension. Bitcoin holders are often incentivized to hold, while miners ultimately benefit from activity.

This is where payment infrastructure becomes relevant to mining economics. If miners remain purely passive validators, they simply wait for transaction demand to appear. But if miners can help create, route, prioritize, or commercially support payment activity, they move closer to the transaction economy itself.

That is the broader significance of GoMining’s GoBTC Pay. According to the company’s launch announcement, GoMining introduced GoBTC Pay, a Bitcoin payment protocol that uses its own mining pool to prioritize transaction confirmation and targets 12-hour final on-chain settlement by the end of 2026. Because this is a company press release, those details should be treated as GoMining’s stated product roadmap rather than independent evidence of market adoption.

The product itself is less important than the model it represents. It treats mining capacity as part of the payment experience, not just a background security function.

Boy George, CEO of GoMining, framed the shift as miners becoming “no longer limited to monetizing security alone.” By participating in payment infrastructure, he said, miners can take part more directly in “commercial activity taking place on the network.”

That is the central market-structure question. If Bitcoin payments become a real economic layer, miners may not only collect fees after transactions arrive. They may help shape the infrastructure that causes more transactions to happen.

A New Revenue Layer, Or A New Control Surface?The opportunity is clear. A miner-linked payments model could give miners exposure to transaction volume in a way that is more predictable than waiting for episodic fee spikes. GoMining says that with GoBTC Pay, 0.1% of each transaction’s value is allocated to miners in its pool for settling the transaction on the network.

That kind of model points toward a broader possibility: miners earning from payment activity as a service layer, not only from block rewards and standard transaction fees. In traditional payments, networks and processors monetize volume. Bitcoin has historically separated network security from the consumer payment experience. Miner-led payment models begin to blur that line.

The risk is equally obvious. Bitcoin’s credibility comes from open participation and neutral settlement. If reliable payment flows depend on a small number of large miners or dedicated pools, Bitcoin payments could become faster and more commercial, but also more dependent on specific infrastructure providers.

That tradeoff matters because Bitcoin’s existing payment infrastructure has largely developed through service layers such as Lightning, custodial wallets, payment processors, and exchange-linked merchant tools. Those systems already show that usability usually requires abstraction. The question is whether miner involvement adds a useful economic layer or creates another point of dependency around settlement.

George acknowledged the concentration risk in principle, saying the goal “should not be to concentrate payment activity around a small group of miners,” but to create incentives for broader participation across the ecosystem.

That is the design challenge. The strongest version of miner-led payments would expand miner participation and improve Bitcoin’s commercial usefulness. The weakest version would simply create another privileged gateway, this time attached to block production.

Bitcoin Payments May Return Through AbstractionThe mistake is assuming Bitcoin payments have to return in their original form to matter. A purist vision would have users spending Bitcoin directly, merchants holding Bitcoin, and the transaction settling natively with minimal intermediation. That remains philosophically clean, but commercially limited.

The more likely path is layered. Consumers spend from crypto balances. Merchants receive local currency. Payment providers manage conversion and compliance. Lightning or other infrastructure handles speed where appropriate. Miners, in some models, help connect settlement activity to mining economics.

Zhou’s view reflects that practical direction. For Bitcoin to become a payment asset again, he said the ecosystem must abstract volatility for merchants through “instantaneous, low-fee Layer-2 scaling networks and automated, real-time fiat conversion at checkout.” He also connected the miner question directly to Bitcoin’s payment future, arguing that miners can become “active payment facilitators and liquidity providers” as block rewards diminish.

That does not mean Bitcoin will displace stablecoins in payments. Stablecoins still have the clearer product-market fit for everyday settlement because they match how consumers and merchants account for value. But Bitcoin has something stablecoins do not: the deepest brand, liquidity, and security profile in crypto.

The question is whether that can be converted into payment utility without breaking the investment narrative that made Bitcoin valuable in the first place.

For miners, this is not nostalgia for Satoshi’s white paper. It is a business model question. If Bitcoin remains mostly dormant monetary property, miners remain tied to block rewards, transaction fees, treasury strategy, power markets, and adjacent infrastructure plays. If Bitcoin payment activity grows, miners may have a path to participate in a wider commercial economy built around the network they secure.

The next phase of Bitcoin payments may therefore look less like a consumer revolution and more like an infrastructure realignment. Stablecoins have already shown that crypto payments work best when users do not have to think about the underlying rails. Bitcoin may need the same lesson.

If miners become part of that stack, their role in Bitcoin changes. They are no longer only securing the ledger. They are helping create the economic activity the ledger is meant to record.

China's A-share market has a new "stock king": Changxin Technology surges 471.59% on its debut, with market capitalization exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan.

When China's A-share market opened, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.14%, the Shenzhen Component Index declined 0.04%, and the ChiNext Index edged up 0.03%; ChangXin Technology surged 471.59% on its first day of listing, opening at 49.5 yuan per share with a corresponding market capitalization of 3.31 trillion yuan, making it the largest-cap stock on the A-share market.

7 minutes ago

Jiang Zhuoer: Changxin Technology’s opening price is too high, with no trading or arbitrage opportunities left.

Jiang Zhuoer, founder of BTC.TOP (LeiBit Mining Pool), posted that Changxin Technology’s opening price is too high, leaving no trading or arbitrage opportunities. Yesterday, he noted, “Changxin Storage will likely open higher, surge then pull back, hitting its all-time high on the first trading day. The perfect strategy is to buy at the A-share opening, sell during the midday Hong Kong market hype, then sell on A-share the next day while closing out the Hong Kong position. If you don’t hold a Hong Kong market position, once trapped by T+1 rules, you might end up like PetroChina, stuck for a lifetime.”

7 minutes ago

Changxin Technology's temporary indicative call auction price stands at 49.5 yuan.

According to market data, Changxin Technology’s call auction is temporarily quoted at 49.5 yuan, with an issue price of 8.66 yuan per share, marking a 471.59% increase.

7 minutes ago

Changxin Technology's contract price once again breaks through the $7 mark on trade.xyz

Changxin Technology has entered the opening call auction on China's STAR Market, with its stock temporarily quoted at 49.5 yuan. Driven by this, Changxin Technology's stock contract has rallied again on trade.xyz, now trading at 7.2 U.S. dollars.

7 minutes ago

Summary of Views on Changxin Technology: There is a potential for a price surge on its listing day, and a market capitalization of RMB 3-4 trillion has become the consensus.

For today’s listing of Changxin Technology, crypto KOLs have shared divergent predictions. Jiang Zhuoer, founder of the B.TOP mining pool, holds a relatively pessimistic view. He believes Changxin Technology will likely open higher, surge and then pull back, hitting its all-time high on the first trading day. The perfect playbook, he says, would be: buy on the A-share opening, sell during the midday hype-driven surge, then sell on A-shares the next day while closing out the hype position. If you don’t have a hype position, trapped by the T+1 trading rule, you might end up holding it for life just like PetroChina. Mango Labs founder @dov_wo is far more bullish: “I’ve gone long on Changxin Technology. In my view, Changxin offers a rare 1:5 risk-reward opportunity—downside of 20%, upside of 100%, a 1-to-5 payout ratio.” @dov_wo lists his bullish reasons as: low tradable share ratio, regulatory factors, and institutional optimism for its investment opportunity at a market cap below 3 trillion yuan. His suggested strategy: “If it opens higher tomorrow, close positions directly to take profits; if it opens lower then rallies, wait patiently—wrap up the trade within 3 days.” Institutional analysts are also deeply divided: Nomura Securities gives Changxin Technology a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a market cap of 7.76 trillion yuan. China’s Northeast Securities values Changxin Technology in a range of 3.2 trillion to 5.7 trillion yuan.

7 minutes ago

With 10 minutes remaining in the call auction, Changxin Technology’s price on trade.xyz plunged rapidly, briefly falling below $6.5.

Within less than 10 minutes of its call auction, Changxin Technology’s stock contract saw a rapid pullback on trade.xyz, briefly falling below $6.5 before trading at a current price of $6.5582. Over the past hour, the stock had briefly surged past $7.

7 minutes ago