Today, market analyst CoinMarketCap identified top crypto gainers over the week, showing new developments in the larger digital assets landscape. Based on the data reported by the analyst, the cryptocurrency space experienced a mixed momentum as only a few digital assets delivered remarkable gains in the last seven days, while the majority of markets recalled their performance.
Today, June 28, 2028, the crypto market capitalization stands at $2.08 trillion, a huge fall from the peak of $4.27 trillion noticed on October last year. This slip that brought the current market cap down to $2.08 trillion highlights a wider bearish market sentiment, further indicated by BTC and ETH prices, which currently trade at $60,201 and $1,577, respectively. Despite bears remaining firmly in control in the wider market, the analyst identified some assets that performed well throughout the past week, showing investor conviction in their respective networks.
VELVET, BEAT, and DEXE Shine Velvet (VELVET) According to CoinMarketCap data, VELVET, the native token of the Velvet ecosystem, emerged as the cryptocurrency with the top price performance over the week. VELVET experienced a massive 244.04% price rise in the last seven days, showcasing significant enthusiasm in its AI-powered DeFi trading platform. The catalyst behind this explosive surge is the mixture of retail FOMO and smart money accumulation following the partnership between Velvet and Aerodrome Finance. The strategic collaboration that occurred last week on Wednesday, June 24, enabled Velvet to route trades through Aerodrome, fueling liquidity and trading engagement on its DeFi ecosystem.
Audiera (BEAT) Moving down, the CMC data identified BEAT, the native token of the AI music platform Audiera, as the second-best crypto performer over the past week, up 63.95% in the last seven days. This impressive performance shows that the BEAT token continues to go through a serious accumulation phase, which so far has enabled it to pump its price 158.9% over the past 30 days, according to CoinGecko data. The surge appears as unstoppable momentum driven by persistent aggressive buying pressure.
DeXe (DEXE) Third on the list is DeXe (DEXE), a decentralized social trading platform, which rose by 54.86% on the last seven days. This indicates that the asset continues to attract user attention, captivated by its sustained climbs. CoinGecko data today revealed that DEXE rose 20.8% in the last 30 days and 154.0% over the past 12 months, a solid performance that keeps drawing in lots of traders with buying activity. Furthermore, Santiment data shared on Friday pointed out that daily active addresses have climbed to a new all-time high, indicating the Dexe network is experiencing strong user participation driven by increased whale activity and retail engagement.
Other Top Market Performers Despite the persistence of bearish pressure across the broader crypto markets, the CMC data listed other assets with outstanding performance over the week, including Aave (AAVE), which rose by 21.78% in the last seven days. Lighter (LIT) and Jito (JTO) also maintain their traction as indicated by 14.90% and 10.48% surges, respectively.
AUTHOR
Nicholas Otieno is a fintech writer specializing in cryptocurrency markets. Since 2019, he has written articles to educate readers about cryptocurrency and its substantial positive impact on global prosperity. Nicholas is a Bitcoin holder, believing firmly in its fundamentals. His work has been featured in publications such as Finance Magnates, Blockchain.News, Bitcoin Magazine, Coincub, and among others. When he's not writing, Nicholas enjoys performing domestic tasks, spending time with friends, listening to music, and watching football.
Predict.fun’s first World Cup knockout match: Canada vs South Africa, with Canada holding a 58% win probability.
Data from prediction market platform Predict.fun indicates that the first knockout match of the 2026 Canada-Mexico-USA World Cup’s 32-team knockout stage is approaching. The clash between Canada and South Africa will kick off at 3 a.m. Beijing time today. Current predicted win probabilities stand at 58% for Canada (CAN), 16% for South Africa (RSA), and a 27% chance of a draw. The data shows that the market has given higher support to the Canadian national team’s overall strength ahead of the match.
5 hours ago
Predict.fun Launches World Cup 32-Team Knockout Stage Event, Remaining Prize Pool Exceeds $1.1 Million
According to an official announcement from Predict.fun, the knockout stage of the World Cup’s 32-team tournament has officially launched, with the platform simultaneously upgrading its Predict Cup event mechanism. For this knockout round, Predict.fun will open 11 prediction markets per match and boost Fan Points rewards. The official added that the ongoing event still has a prize pool of over $1.1 million up for grabs, with rewards disbursed immediately after each knockout match’s conclusion. Notably, the Canada vs. South Africa match is set to kick off in under 3 hours, with a direct $25,000 reward allocated for this fixture, giving users more frequent chances to participate and win. Predict.fun stated that as the knockout stage commences, the platform will incentivize users to actively join World Cup prediction markets and compete for subsequent prize pool rewards via more markets, higher point rewards, and a more frequent reward distribution system.
5 hours ago
Predict.fun World Cup Group Stage $840,000 Event Rewards Now Available for Claiming
According to official announcements from Predict.fun, rewards for the World Cup group stage event are now available for collection, with the current prize pool totaling $840,000. The platform noted that users who participated and secured rewards during the group stage can now claim them via the platform. With the conclusion of the 32-team group stage, the number of World Cup-related markets on Predict.fun has risen from the initial 6 to 11, providing more trading and points-chasing opportunities for new participants. For the upcoming knockout stage, the platform will release over $1 million in additional event rewards, giving users ongoing opportunities to compete for leaderboard positions and split the subsequent prize pool.
5 hours ago
South Korean investors' borrowings for stock trading hit an all-time high, with record leverage exacerbating volatility in South Korean equities.
South Korean investors’ margin lending for stock trading hits an all-time high: South Korea’s margin loans have reached a record of approximately $26 billion, doubling since the start of 2025. However, when measured as a share of South Korea’s free-float market capitalization, margin lending currently makes up only around 0.8% — the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic low. This is because the sharp rise in South Korea’s total stock market capitalization has far outpaced the growth of leverage. Meanwhile, during the recent market correction, the daily forced liquidation ratio surged to 4-5% of total outstanding margin loans, far exceeding the normal level of roughly 1%. This means that leveraged investors unable to meet margin call requirements are forcing brokers to liquidate 4-5% of all margin positions in a single day. Record leverage is exacerbating volatility in the South Korean market.
5 hours ago
Hyper Foundation to Distribute $10 Million in Grants Amid Phased Exit of USDH Stablecoin
The Hyper Foundation announced it will provide approximately $10 million in grants to help developers affected by the phased shutdown of USDH offset migration costs. The grants are divided into two categories: migration grants for teams that have integrated USDH and are migrating related markets or deployments to USDC; and wind-down grants for teams that choose to terminate USDH-related operations instead of migrating, with amounts lower than equivalent migration grants. Grants for HIP-1 and HIP-3 are calculated based on auction deployment costs, while HyperEVM grants are determined by the amount of affected USDH locked. All grant recipients must commit to completing an orderly migration or wind-down by the end of July. Users can directly swap USDH for USDC on the HyperCore spot order book, or exchange it for free at a 1:1 ratio via the Across Protocol on HyperEVM. The Hyper Foundation thanked all developers who built real markets on USDH, users who supported USDH's growth, and Native Markets for its pioneering work in launching the protocol's native stablecoin. Thanks to the active collaboration of the team and community, the migration process is currently proceeding smoothly and orderly.
5 hours ago
Samson Mow asserts that Bitcoin has reached its bottom, as analysts’ views on the market outlook have grown increasingly divergent.
Jan3 CEO Samson Mow today asserted that Bitcoin has reached its bottom. His core argument is that Bitcoin hit its then all-time high 37 days before the April 2024 halving, an anomaly indicating the traditional four-year halving cycle has accelerated, rendering historically reliable timing patterns no longer applicable. “Even if you believe in the cycle, you should conclude that it has accelerated.” However, the market is far from reaching a consensus: Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, believes the bottom is more likely at $55,000, with a time window between August and October; BitMex co-founder Arthur Hayes is more bearish, predicting Bitcoin will hit roughly $40,000 within six months; senior analyst James Van Straten notes that Bitcoin is currently testing its 200-week moving average, with on-chain data suggesting the $50,000–$54,000 range could be the next key battleground. Since 2011, every major Bitcoin bear market has only confirmed its cycle bottom after falling below its realized price, and this signal has not yet emerged in the current cycle.
PANews June 28 news, the EVM cross-chain bridge project Etherlink issued a security notice stating that the system recently experienced a security attack attempt. To ensure the safety of user assets, the team immediately suspended all cross-chain transfer functions and is conducting a comprehensive investigation and risk assessment of the incident, confirming that no user funds have been lost so far.
Etherlink stated that it is working closely with LayerZero, Asymmetric Research, and Zeeve to ensure that the attack risk is completely mitigated before restoring service, but has not yet announced a recovery timeline and said it will update progress as soon as possible.
On-chain records were reported as showing Machi Big Brother liquidating BAYC-related assets to defend leveraged ETH exposure. The discovery pack described the activity as linked to Hyperliquid ETH long positions. Risk note: Do not speculate on personal finances or make claims beyond visible wallet and position data. https://x.com/AlexBayarchyk/status/2071105539686158804
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Nft sales and leveraged eth exposure show how quickly margin stress can become visible on-chain On-Chain Data Tracks Machi Big Brother ETH Leverage Defense on Hyperliquid is a timely crypto-market story because it gives readers a clear signal to watch without leaning on hype or unsupported price targets.
The important point is not just the headline number or technical level. It is the way that signal fits into the wider market: liquidity is thinner, Bitcoin direction is fragile, and traders are paying closer attention to flows, wallet activity, derivatives positioning, and official ecosystem updates.
What the verified setup shows On-chain records were reported as showing Machi Big Brother liquidating BAYC-related assets to defend leveraged ETH exposure. The discovery pack described the activity as linked to Hyperliquid ETH long positions.
The article must rely only on visible wallet, NFT-market, and position data.
That makes this a useful setup for readers who want to understand what is actually changing beneath the surface. It also helps separate measurable market data from the more speculative narratives that often appear during volatile weekends.
Why this matters for the market For Machi Big Brother ETH, the signal matters because it offers a specific lens for the current market rather than a vague bullish or bearish call. In a weak or uncertain tape, traders tend to focus on the data points that can be checked directly: flows, wallet routes, support zones, funding, moving averages, official technical updates, or security disclosures.
This is especially important in the current environment. Bitcoin has been trading near important support, altcoins remain sensitive to broader risk appetite, and institutional or on-chain activity can quickly become part of the market narrative.
What traders should avoid assuming Do not speculate on personal finances or make claims beyond visible wallet and position data.
That caution matters because many of these signals can be misread. ETF outflows do not automatically mean permanent institutional retreat. Wallet transfers do not automatically mean selling. Technical support does not guarantee a bounce. Developer updates do not immediately translate into price action.
What to verify next The next validation path is: OpenSea/Blur NFT trading records, Etherscan and Hyperliquid public position data. This is the key step before treating the setup as anything more than a developing market or ecosystem signal.
Leveraged position metrics can change rapidly and should be checked immediately before upload.
This report is based on publicly available on-chain and market data.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Hyper Foundation is putting $10 million on the table to help developers and protocols navigate the death of USDH, the stablecoin that once served as the backbone of Hyperliquid’s trading ecosystem.
The grant program, announced on June 28, targets builders who built on top of USDH and now need to either migrate their projects to USDC or wind them down in an orderly fashion. The deadline: end of July 2026.
Who gets the money and what they need to do The $10 million isn’t a general-purpose slush fund. It’s targeted at specific categories of ecosystem participants who are most directly affected by USDH going dark.
Eligible recipients include deployers under HIP-1 and HIP-3, which are Hyperliquid’s frameworks for listing and managing assets on the platform. HyperEVM protocols, USDH:USDC bridges, and Native Markets, the actual issuer of USDH, are also on the list.
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To smooth the transition for everyday users, feeless conversion paths to USDC are being made available. Bridges like Across on HyperEVM allow traders to swap their USDH holdings for USDC without eating transaction costs during the changeover period. USDH markets on HyperCore have already completed settlements, meaning the order books are effectively closed and the swap infrastructure is the primary exit route.
Why Hyperliquid is ditching its own stablecoin Hyperliquid launched as a high-performance Layer 1 blockchain purpose-built for perpetual futures and spot trading. USDH was its native stablecoin, the default unit of account for the platform’s trading pairs.
The pivot toward USDC as the canonical stablecoin on Hyperliquid has been in motion since 2025, when community proposals and planned auctions for the USDH ticker first signaled the direction of travel. By mid-2026, the decision was fully baked.
The financial mechanics of the wind-down reveal some interesting details about how USDH was structured. Half of the prior USDH reserve yield is being routed to HYPE buybacks through the Assistance Fund. In other words, the reserves that once backed USDH are partially being recycled into supporting the platform’s native token on the way out.
And the unwinding is already having ripple effects. Hyperion DeFi withdrew approximately 800,000 HYPE, worth roughly $28.7 million, on June 8 after ending its USDH-related contracts.
What this means for investors For traders currently active on Hyperliquid, the immediate concern is practical: make sure any USDH holdings are converted before the July deadline. The feeless bridges exist precisely for this purpose.
The Hyperion DeFi withdrawal of $28.7 million in HYPE tokens is worth monitoring for anyone holding the native token. Large-scale unwinding of USDH-related positions could create selling pressure on HYPE in the short term, even as the reserve yield buyback mechanism works in the opposite direction.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Bitwise brutally strengthens its crypto bet on Hyperliquid. The asset manager transferred 1.775 million HYPE tokens to the protocol before staking them. The operation, estimated at around 114 million dollars, accompanies the rise of its Hyperliquid spot ETF launched in May.
In brief Bitwise placed 1.775 million HYPE in staking. The crypto operation amounts to about 114 million dollars. The BHYP ETF strengthens institutional demand around Hyperliquid. Bitwise deposited 1.775 million HYPE on Hyperliquid, then committed all the tokens to staking. This position confirms the interest already shown by the manager for an asset he recently judged undervalued on the market.
At the price taken during the transaction, the tokens represented roughly 114 million dollars. This is therefore no longer a simple institutional test. Bitwise is establishing massive exposure on one of the main decentralized crypto derivatives platforms.
Staking also reduces the amount of HYPE immediately available on the market. When large holders lock their tokens, the liquid supply can contract. This mechanism however does not guarantee an automatic price increase. The economic model of Hyperliquid plays a central role in this operation. Staking rewards are not only based on the issuance of new tokens. They are notably supported by the activity and revenue generated by the protocol.
Bitwise is thus exposed to two crypto variables. The first remains the price of HYPE. The second depends on Hyperliquid’s level of use, notably the volume handled on its decentralized markets. This structure makes the bet more strategic than a classic purchase. If the activity grows, the protocol’s revenues can reinforce staking interest. Conversely, a drop in volumes would reduce the position’s economic attractiveness.
Hyperliquid quickly established itself in derivatives trading. The platform now competes with several major centralized venues on certain indicators, while retaining a largely on-chain architecture.
The BHYP ETF fuels crypto accumulation The operation follows the launch of the Bitwise Hyperliquid ETF, listed under the symbol BHYP. This product gives investors exposure to HYPE without forcing them to directly manage a crypto portfolio or technical staking constraints.
The fund also seeks to capture rewards thanks to the tokens held. This design distinguishes BHYP from an ETF that would merely passively track the price of an asset. Bitwise wants to combine market exposure and on-chain yield.
The manager also dedicates part of its revenue to buying and staking HYPE. Fund growth can therefore feed new demand for the token. The more assets managed increase, the larger this mechanism can grow.
This dynamic explains why the Hyperliquid ETF now occupies an important place in Bitwise’s crypto strategy. The manager no longer only bets on Bitcoin or Ethereum. It also seeks to capture growth from younger infrastructures.
Hyperliquid attracts institutional finance Bitwise is not alone in this field. Other managers have also sought to launch products linked to HYPE. This competition shows Hyperliquid has exceeded its status as a platform reserved for specialized traders.
The arrival of regulated funds can create a new source of demand. A few tens of millions of dollars represent little at the scale of traditional finance, but a lot for a token whose liquid supply remains limited. This concentration carries risks though. If ETFs accumulate a large share of available HYPE, their purchases can support the price. But their sales could also amplify a correction during massive exits.
Staking adds another level of dependency. Bitwise must monitor the protocol’s operation, validators, technical risks, and the network’s rule evolution. Institutional exposure does not remove crypto’s inherent vulnerabilities.
The 114 million dollar investment thus remains a strong signal, but not a guarantee. It confirms that Hyperliquid is entering a new phase, driven by ETFs, staking, and institutional capital. The battle for exposure to HYPE is probably just beginning, while the token aims higher in the crypto hierarchy.
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Evans S.
Fascinated by Bitcoin since 2017, Evariste has continuously researched the subject. While his initial interest was in trading, he now actively seeks to understand all advances centered on cryptocurrencies. As an editor, he strives to consistently deliver high-quality work that reflects the state of the sector as a whole.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Hyperliquid has overtaken S.A.N.T.A in 24-hour revenue generation, marking another data point in the ongoing battle between competing memecoin infrastructure models.
The platform, which runs its own Layer-1 blockchain purpose-built for perpetual futures trading, has turned itself into one of DeFi’s most efficient revenue engines. Cumulative revenue has surpassed $1 billion, reaching roughly $1.027 billion according to DefiLlama data.
The revenue flywheel that keeps spinning Hyperliquid captures trading fees and funnels them into what it calls an Assistance Fund. That fund exists primarily for one purpose: regular buybacks of HYPE, the platform’s native token. Up to 97% of fees get redistributed into these buybacks.
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Annualized revenue run rates currently sit between $676 million and $843 million. Hyperliquid has at times generated more revenue than Ethereum. The platform operates without venture capital funding and runs a minimal team.
S.A.N.T.A and the transparency question Public information about S.A.N.T.A’s operations, revenue metrics, and overall business model remains difficult to verify independently. There are no public sources confirming the operational functionality or revenue claims of S.A.N.T.A as related to Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid’s revenue figures are trackable through DefiLlama and other on-chain analytics tools.
What this means for investors Hyperliquid’s perpetual futures focus gives it a structural advantage. Perps are the most traded instrument in crypto, often generating multiples of spot trading volume.
The HYPE buyback mechanism, funded by up to 97% of fees, creates consistent demand pressure on the token. The 97% redistribution rate also leaves very little cushion for building reserves or funding development during lean periods.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Predict.fun’s first World Cup knockout match: Canada vs South Africa, with Canada holding a 58% win probability.
Data from prediction market platform Predict.fun indicates that the first knockout match of the 2026 Canada-Mexico-USA World Cup’s 32-team knockout stage is approaching. The clash between Canada and South Africa will kick off at 3 a.m. Beijing time today. Current predicted win probabilities stand at 58% for Canada (CAN), 16% for South Africa (RSA), and a 27% chance of a draw. The data shows that the market has given higher support to the Canadian national team’s overall strength ahead of the match.
5 hours ago
Predict.fun Launches World Cup 32-Team Knockout Stage Event, Remaining Prize Pool Exceeds $1.1 Million
According to an official announcement from Predict.fun, the knockout stage of the World Cup’s 32-team tournament has officially launched, with the platform simultaneously upgrading its Predict Cup event mechanism. For this knockout round, Predict.fun will open 11 prediction markets per match and boost Fan Points rewards. The official added that the ongoing event still has a prize pool of over $1.1 million up for grabs, with rewards disbursed immediately after each knockout match’s conclusion. Notably, the Canada vs. South Africa match is set to kick off in under 3 hours, with a direct $25,000 reward allocated for this fixture, giving users more frequent chances to participate and win. Predict.fun stated that as the knockout stage commences, the platform will incentivize users to actively join World Cup prediction markets and compete for subsequent prize pool rewards via more markets, higher point rewards, and a more frequent reward distribution system.
5 hours ago
Predict.fun World Cup Group Stage $840,000 Event Rewards Now Available for Claiming
According to official announcements from Predict.fun, rewards for the World Cup group stage event are now available for collection, with the current prize pool totaling $840,000. The platform noted that users who participated and secured rewards during the group stage can now claim them via the platform. With the conclusion of the 32-team group stage, the number of World Cup-related markets on Predict.fun has risen from the initial 6 to 11, providing more trading and points-chasing opportunities for new participants. For the upcoming knockout stage, the platform will release over $1 million in additional event rewards, giving users ongoing opportunities to compete for leaderboard positions and split the subsequent prize pool.
5 hours ago
South Korean investors' borrowings for stock trading hit an all-time high, with record leverage exacerbating volatility in South Korean equities.
South Korean investors’ margin lending for stock trading hits an all-time high: South Korea’s margin loans have reached a record of approximately $26 billion, doubling since the start of 2025. However, when measured as a share of South Korea’s free-float market capitalization, margin lending currently makes up only around 0.8% — the lowest level since the 2020 pandemic low. This is because the sharp rise in South Korea’s total stock market capitalization has far outpaced the growth of leverage. Meanwhile, during the recent market correction, the daily forced liquidation ratio surged to 4-5% of total outstanding margin loans, far exceeding the normal level of roughly 1%. This means that leveraged investors unable to meet margin call requirements are forcing brokers to liquidate 4-5% of all margin positions in a single day. Record leverage is exacerbating volatility in the South Korean market.
5 hours ago
Hyper Foundation to Distribute $10 Million in Grants Amid Phased Exit of USDH Stablecoin
The Hyper Foundation announced it will provide approximately $10 million in grants to help developers affected by the phased shutdown of USDH offset migration costs. The grants are divided into two categories: migration grants for teams that have integrated USDH and are migrating related markets or deployments to USDC; and wind-down grants for teams that choose to terminate USDH-related operations instead of migrating, with amounts lower than equivalent migration grants. Grants for HIP-1 and HIP-3 are calculated based on auction deployment costs, while HyperEVM grants are determined by the amount of affected USDH locked. All grant recipients must commit to completing an orderly migration or wind-down by the end of July. Users can directly swap USDH for USDC on the HyperCore spot order book, or exchange it for free at a 1:1 ratio via the Across Protocol on HyperEVM. The Hyper Foundation thanked all developers who built real markets on USDH, users who supported USDH's growth, and Native Markets for its pioneering work in launching the protocol's native stablecoin. Thanks to the active collaboration of the team and community, the migration process is currently proceeding smoothly and orderly.
5 hours ago
Galaxy CEO: MicroStrategy has evolved into a key confidence signal for the overall Bitcoin market, with $59,000 serving as a critical support level.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the core reason for Bitcoin’s recent decline is a "confidence collapse triggered by Strategy". The issue extends beyond Bitcoin’s price itself: concerns over Strategy’s financing model are spreading across the market. As the world’s largest public corporate holder of Bitcoin, Strategy’s stocks and senior securities have become key metrics for traders to gauge Bitcoin market risk. Earlier, the company’s Bitcoin flywheel effect came under pressure, with its stock once trading below the value of its Bitcoin holdings—meaning its years-long reliance on the "issuing stock at a premium to raise funds for Bitcoin purchases" model is now facing challenges. Novogratz bluntly noted that STRC (Strategy’s ticker) is trading weakly, and it should have held steady around $100. Currently, Strategy’s annual dividend obligations have risen to roughly $1.2 billion, and shrinking cash reserves have cut the dividend coverage period to just about 14 months. On the macro front, Bitcoin also faces pressure. Novogratz summed up the current market logic as "a strong dollar means a weak Bitcoin": hawkish central bank signals and a strengthening US dollar are suppressing demand for risk assets. Technically, the $59,000 to $60,000 range has become a critical support level for Bitcoin; a break below could open downside space to $45,000. Novogratz also admitted the current situation is complex, with an equal 50/50 probability of a rebound or deep correction. ETF outflows, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market further confirm the market’s fragile sentiment. Today, Strategy’s balance sheet health, STRC’s price performance, and cash position are no longer just company-level issues—they have evolved into a confidence signal for the entire Bitcoin market.
PANews June 28 news, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow said on social platforms that he believes the bottom of this Bitcoin cycle has been formed, and pointed out that the traditional "four-year halving cycle" is being broken, with market timing clearly moving earlier. He noted that Bitcoin hit an all-time high 37 days before the halving in April 2024, indicating that the cycle pattern is accelerating. Even if the cycle model is acknowledged to have reference value, its effectiveness should be re-evaluated. Moreover, with spot ETFs bringing sustained institutional capital inflows, Bitcoin's market structure has changed, and the traditional approach of identifying tops and bottoms based on historical halving cycles is becoming distorted. Therefore, the current price range already possesses the characteristics of a cycle bottom.
However, market views remain markedly divided. 10x Research founder Markus Thielen believes that Bitcoin's bottom is more likely to appear in the area around $55,000, with a time window possibly between August and October; BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin could drop to around the $40,000 level over the coming months; CoinDesk analyst James Van Straten pointed out that from long-term indicators such as the 200-week moving average, Bitcoin may still need to fall by more than 15% further before completing its final bottom formation, and the current range of $50,000 to $54,000 could become a key battleground for bulls and bears. Overall, the market has yet to form a consensus on whether the bottom has been reached.
Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its worst monthly loss since mid-2022, with BTC down roughly 18.5% in June as price struggles to hold the psychological $60,000 support level.
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: TradingView
Will Bitcoin’s downside momentum extend in July, or is BTC preparing for a recovery?
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin’s liquidity map shows a major short-liquidation “magnet zone” near $67,600.BTC has historically gained 7.6% on average in July, while midterm-year seasonality points to an even stronger 10.3% average return.Bitcoin may hit $75,000 in JulyJuly may become a "bullish month for Bitcoin," according to analyst Fleh, who predicted BTC price to rally toward $75,000 next month.
The bullish thesis is based on Bitcoin’s Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap, which shows a large concentration of short liquidation levels sitting above the current price.
On the monthly chart, the strongest visible liquidity cluster sits near $67,645, where the chart shows around $247.39 million in liquidation leverage and roughly $2.26 billion in cumulative short liquidation leverage.
For beginners, such clusters are often called “magnet zones.” When many leveraged positions are concentrated around the same price area, the market can move toward that zone because liquidations create forced buying or selling pressure.
In this case, significant liquidity sits above Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000.
If BTC rebounds and pushes toward $67,600, short sellers may be forced to close their positions. Since closing shorts requires buying Bitcoin back, that can add fresh upside pressure and fuel a short squeeze.
"I think $BTC bottoms here at 60k for now, targeting 75k to the upside before any chance of lower," Fleh said in a Saturday post.
BTC rises 7.6% on average in JulyBitcoin’s historical monthly returns also support Fleh’s bullish July outlook.
BTC has returned a 7.6% gain on average in July, making it one of its stronger months after a typically weaker June, which shows an average return of -1.40%, according to CoinGlass data highlighted by analyst CGT_Trader.
Bitcoin monthly returns tracking the July performance in since 2013. Source: CoinGlass/CGT_Trader
The trend has appeared even during bear market years.
For instance, Bitcoin rose 20.96% in July 2018 and 16.8% in July 2022. More recently, BTC gained 2.95% in July 2024 and 8.13% in July 2025, strengthening the case for another green month ahead.
A separate midterm-year seasonality chart also shows that- Bitcoin has averaged a 10.3% gain during the month, its strongest monthly return in such years.
Bitcoin performance by month during US mid-term election years. Source: More Crypto Online
That compares with an average 17% loss in June, pointing to the possibility of a post-sell-off mean-reversion bounce.
Based on Bitcoin’s current price near $60,000, its historical July average return of 7.6% projects a move toward roughly $64,500, while the stronger midterm-year average of 10.3% points to about $66,100.
A repeat of Bitcoin’s bear-market July rebounds from 2022 and 2018 would put BTC between $70,000 and $72,500, while a 2020-style July rally would bring Fleh’s $75,000 target within reach.
BTC's dip below the 200-week SMA may extend slideBitcoin’s ongoing drop below its 200-week simple moving average (200-day SMA, the blue line) near $62,445 raises the risk of further downside in July.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: TradingView
A similar loss of long-term moving-average support preceded deeper weakness during the 2022 bear market, when BTC continued lower before forming a bottom.
Bitcoin's bear flag breakdown raises the odds of a price decline toward $55,000 in July unless BTC quickly reclaims the 200-day SMA.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
This article is produced in accordance with Cointelegraph's Editorial Policy and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or recommendations. All investments and trades carry risk; readers are encouraged to conduct independent research.
Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl discussed Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy capital structure in the context of market confidence. The analyst view suggested that selling a portion of Bitcoin holdings could be one way to address corporate balance sheet pressure. Risk note: Do not imply Strategy has announced a sale, is forced to sell, or is in financial distress. For more details, visit the official Grayscale platform.
An external analyst view on strategy’s capital structure, not a company action Grayscale Analyst Outlines Strategy Balance Sheet Pressure Around Bitcoin Holdings is a timely crypto-market story because it gives readers a clear signal to watch without leaning on hype or unsupported price targets.
The important point is not just the headline number or technical level. It is the way that signal fits into the wider market: liquidity is thinner, Bitcoin direction is fragile, and traders are paying closer attention to flows, wallet activity, derivatives positioning, and official ecosystem updates.
What the verified setup shows Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl discussed Strategy’s Bitcoin-heavy capital structure in the context of market confidence. The analyst view suggested that selling a portion of Bitcoin holdings could be one way to address corporate balance sheet pressure.
The discovery pack did not indicate that Strategy itself has announced any Bitcoin sale plan.
That makes this a useful setup for readers who want to understand what is actually changing beneath the surface. It also helps separate measurable market data from the more speculative narratives that often appear during volatile weekends.
Why this matters for the market For Strategy Bitcoin holdings, the signal matters because it offers a specific lens for the current market rather than a vague bullish or bearish call. In a weak or uncertain tape, traders tend to focus on the data points that can be checked directly: flows, wallet routes, support zones, funding, moving averages, official technical updates, or security disclosures.
This is especially important in the current environment. Bitcoin has been trading near important support, altcoins remain sensitive to broader risk appetite, and institutional or on-chain activity can quickly become part of the market narrative.
What traders should avoid assuming Do not imply Strategy has announced a sale, is forced to sell, or is in financial distress.
That caution matters because many of these signals can be misread. ETF outflows do not automatically mean permanent institutional retreat. Wallet transfers do not automatically mean selling. Technical support does not guarantee a bounce. Developer updates do not immediately translate into price action.
What to verify next The next validation path is: Grayscale official research portal and SEC EDGAR corporate filings for Strategy/MicroStrategy. This is the key step before treating the setup as anything more than a developing market or ecosystem signal.
Coverage around Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings is sensitive and must separate analyst opinion from company statements.
This report is based on information from official source materials and publicly available market data.
This article was written by the News Desk and edited by Samuel Rae.
Strategy ended the week amid sharp criticism from the crypto industry and with Bitcoin stuck at around $60,000. Before the weekly close, Bitcoin was trading near $60,102 as the company’s co-founder Michael Saylor shared a reserves chart on his X account, commenting, “We’re going to need more charts.” Some investors interpreted Saylor’s message as a new signal to buy.
Reserves under pressure as losses mountThe company’s latest financials paint a much more cautious picture. Strategy currently holds 847,363 BTC, with an average purchase cost of $75,653 per coin. Since Bitcoin is trading near $60,000, the company’s paper losses on its Bitcoin holdings have now surpassed $13 billion.
This gloomy scenario is reflected in Strategy’s own market value. The firm’s market capitalization has fallen to roughly $29 billion, about 43% below the market value of its Bitcoin reserves. The growing gap has made it increasingly difficult for the company to sustain its prior cycle of raising capital and acquiring more Bitcoin.
For reference, mini Net Asset Value (mNAV) is the ratio between a company’s market capitalization and the net asset value of the assets it holds. For firms with substantial crypto assets on their books, this metric helps investors determine whether the stock is trading at a premium or discount relative to its reserve holdings.
Company bylaws stipulate that issuing new shares to purchase more crypto is only allowed when the market value exceeds the value of Bitcoin reserves by at least 22%. In other words, the mNAV ratio must reach 1.22. At present, this ratio has slipped to just 0.99.
Given the current numbers, issuing new shares is not seen as economically viable. Such a move would dilute the holdings of existing shareholders, and the company’s self-imposed framework may force management to halt further Bitcoin purchases for now.
Cash constraints meet Wall Street scrutinyStrategy’s free cash position has also come under pressure. Its preferred shares, labeled STRC, have fallen around 25% below face value, now trading at $74.57. The company’s remaining $1.4 billion in cash reserves would cover roughly 14 months of dividend payments based on its annual $1.2 billion in obligations.
Zach Pandl, Head of Research at Grayscale, argued that Strategy may need to sell at least $3 billion worth of Bitcoin to cover its short-term debts. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has also criticized the debt-driven structure, warning that it has damaged the market and left Bitcoin overly dependent on a single company’s balance sheet.
Grayscale is a leading asset manager specializing in digital investment products. Ripple, meanwhile, focuses on cross-border payment solutions. As Ripple CEO, Brad Garlinghouse is frequently involved in industry debates over crypto regulation and company strategies.
Key price levels in focusMichael Saylor maintains that as long as Bitcoin holds above $8,000, there is no risk of forced liquidation for the company. Still, technical indicators imply that it could take some time before Strategy’s buy-in costs are recovered. Major trading activity currently centers around resistance levels at $67,098 and $75,682.
Altogether, this outlook underscores the need for a more robust Bitcoin rally if Strategy is to return to aggressive accumulation. Unless Bitcoin approaches the $75,000 region, the company’s balance sheet stress and related debt discussions are likely to persist.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
TLDR:Bitcoin Weekly Death Cross Raises Fresh BTC Price ConcernsMichael Saylor Hints at More Bitcoin Buying Despite Strategy Valuation Pressure Bitcoin approaches a rare weekly death cross as traders monitor long-term market direction closely. Strategy’s mNAV has dropped below 1.0 for the first time during this market cycle. Michael Saylor hinted at more Bitcoin discussions despite growing valuation concerns. Technical signals and institutional buying remain key factors shaping Bitcoin sentiment. Bitcoin could soon print a rare weekly death cross as bearish technical signals return to the market. At the same time, Michael Saylor has hinted that Strategy may continue accumulating Bitcoin despite growing pressure on its valuation.
The two developments have reignited discussion around Bitcoin’s price outlook and institutional demand. Investors are now watching technical charts alongside corporate buying activity for the next major market signal.
Bitcoin Weekly Death Cross Raises Fresh BTC Price Concerns Crypto Rover shared that Bitcoin is approaching a weekly death cross, a technical pattern that appears when the long-term moving average falls below the shorter trend. The account noted that the previous weekly death cross preceded another 28% decline in Bitcoin’s price.
🚨 BITCOIN WEEKLY DEATH CROSS IS NOW INCOMING.
Last time this happened, BTC crashed another -28%.
If history repeats again, the real bottom may not come until late Q3 or early Q4 2026.
That would also perfectly match Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle. https://t.co/NgE8PlCamN pic.twitter.com/sbPGjGTIv4
— Crypto Rover (@cryptorover) June 28, 2026
The same post highlighted Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle. According to Crypto Rover, another extended correction could align with the later stages of the current cycle if previous patterns repeat.
The signal has attracted attention because weekly chart formations appear far less often than daily indicators. Traders typically monitor them for broader market direction rather than short-term volatility.
Despite the technical setup, the pattern alone does not determine future price action. Market participants continue weighing macroeconomic conditions, liquidity, and institutional demand alongside historical chart behavior.
Michael Saylor Hints at More Bitcoin Buying Despite Strategy Valuation Pressure While bearish technical signals circulated, Michael Saylor posted that more charts would be needed, a familiar response that often precedes fresh Bitcoin discussions. His comment followed renewed debate surrounding Strategy’s ability to continue funding Bitcoin purchases.
🚨 JUST IN: Michael Saylor hints at buying more $BTC.
What's interesting is the timing.
Strategy's mNAV has now fallen below 1.0 for the first time this cycle, meaning the company is trading below the market value of the Bitcoin it holds.
Management has previously indicated… https://t.co/WkFYTYOyBi
— Wise Advice (@wiseadvicesumit) June 28, 2026
Wise Advice pointed to Strategy’s market value relative to its Bitcoin holdings. The account noted that the company’s modified net asset value, or mNAV, has fallen below 1.0 for the first time during the current market cycle.
According to the same discussion, Strategy previously suggested that issuing new equity below roughly 1.22 times mNAV could reduce shareholder value. That threshold has prompted questions about whether additional equity-funded Bitcoin purchases remain practical under current market conditions.
Even so, Saylor’s brief response has kept attention on Strategy’s long-standing Bitcoin accumulation strategy.
Investors now await any official filings or announcements that could clarify whether another Bitcoin purchase is approaching while the company navigates changing market dynamics.
Bitcoin continues to hold an important place in El Salvador’s financial strategy, which continues its regular purchases despite changes in its regulatory framework. The country has just added new digital assets to its national treasury, confirming the continuity of its reserve policy. This new acquisition comes as sovereign cryptocurrency reserves remain closely monitored by market observers and institutional players around the world.
In brief El Salvador purchased eight new bitcoins, bringing its national reserves to 7,696.37 BTC. The country continues its weekly accumulation strategy despite recent changes to its legislative framework. The new rules remove the obligation to accept Bitcoin as a means of payment without affecting the national reserve policy. Regular acquisitions continue to strengthen El Salvador’s treasury, whose sovereign reserves remain closely monitored. El Salvador Continues Its Accumulation Strategy El Salvador has strengthened its national bitcoin treasury by acquiring eight additional units during the past week. This operation now brings public reserves to 7,696.37 BTC, according to the official data from the Ministry of Finance.
The government thus maintains a regular purchase pace, which has become a component of its digital asset management strategy. This progression confirms the country’s intention to pursue its accumulation plan without interruption.
Moreover, the Bitcoin Office continues to monitor the evolution of national reserves through public data. This transparency makes it possible to measure each new acquisition made by the authorities. Several observers have also relayed this recent increase in sovereign holdings. El Salvador remains among the states whose digital asset reserves receive constant attention.
Bitcoin Retains a Place in the National Strategy Despite IMF Reforms The latest purchase comes after several adjustments made to the legal framework regarding Bitcoin, as part of the agreement concluded with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The adopted changes mainly concern its use in daily commercial activities. Private companies are no longer obliged to accept this asset as a means of payment. However, Bitcoin remains integrated into the legal framework implemented by the authorities.
At the same time, the national reserve policy has not experienced any interruption. Official data show that weekly purchases continue according to the same logic as before. This separation between payment policy and reserve strategy now appears clearer. El Salvador therefore continues to develop its holdings while adapting certain rules governing the use of the digital asset.
A National Reserve That Keeps Progressing Each new acquisition gradually increases the volume of public reserves of the country. With a total of 7,696.37 BTC, El Salvador confirms the continuity of its long-term accumulation policy.
Regular purchases remain at the core of this strategy, regardless of changes in the legislative framework. Sovereign reserves thus continue to be closely monitored by industry players.
This new progression also illustrates the stability of the acquisition mechanism adopted by the authorities. Official data allow precise tracking of the evolution of the national treasury over the weeks. The BTC thus retains a central role in this reserve strategy, which continues regularly. El Salvador therefore maintains its course, while the evolution of its holdings will continue to be observed in upcoming official updates.
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Ghiles A.
Journaliste et rédacteur web passionné par l’univers des cryptomonnaies et des technologies Web3. J’y traite les dernières tendances et actualités afin de proposer un contenu de haute qualité à un large public du secteur.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
In a recent tweet, Michael Saylor teased the purchase of additional Bitcoin for Strategy despite the market backlash.
Michael Saylor Hints Strategy Will Buy More Bitcoin The speculation regarding another Bitcoin acquisition is again stirring after Strategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor posted his usual, weekly update on X on Sunday. The post came ahead of the company’s expected weekly acquisition on Monday.
“We’re gonna need more charts,” Michael Saylor wrote as he also added the firm’s famous “Orange Dots” chart. For context, this graphic shows all of Bitcoin Strategy’s purchases to date. The announcement immediately raised hopes that the company might announce another Bitcoin purchase when markets reopen on Monday.
We’re gonna need more charts. pic.twitter.com/xVASOEnSw8
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) June 28, 2026
Michael Saylor’s teaser is coming just days after Strategy announced a relatively modest $35 million Bitcoin acquisition. Meanwhile, it also boosted its holdings in U.S. dollars by about $300 million. To pay for these transactions, the firm raised over $335 million in MSTR stock sales. This move also raised further investor questions on shareholder dilution.
What’s Next For Strategy? The latest rumors also come at a time when there is greater debate about the Michael Saylor-led company’s capital structure. According to Grayscale’s CEO and Head of Research Zach Pandl, the company has two scenarios for the Variable Rate Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC).
“What I think happens: increase in STRC dividend of 50bp, which equates to ~$100mn higher dividend obligation for next 2yrs; probably does not help market confidence,” Pandl wrote on X.
In his view, a more different approach would better reassure investors. Panel added, “What I hope happens: sale of ≥ ~$3bn $BTC to cover nearly all cash obligations for next 2yrs (ex one of the converts); probably would restore market confidence.”.
However, that isn’t everyone’s idea of a plan. But longtime Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff said selling off any of Strategy’s holdings could be detrimental.
“Those of you who think Saylor can solve the $STRC problem by selling Bitcoin… $MSTR can’t sell Bitcoin without crashing the price of Bitcoin,” Schiff has cautioned. He further added that “even if Strategy merely stops buying Bitcoin, that change alone would crush the market.”
Presently, Strategy has 847,363 BTC in its possession, which makes it the biggest publicly traded corporate Bitcoin owner in the world. Nonetheless, the company stirred controversy by selling off 32 BTC in May 2026. This move contradicted Saylor’s previous statement that Strategy would never sell its BTC.
MicroStrategy’s $64 billion Bitcoin (BTC) bet has become a stress test for everyone who funded it. BTC now trades below $60,000, and the renamed company, Strategy, sits at a discount to its own holdings.
The question dividing investors is no longer whether Strategy gets liquidated tomorrow. It is who absorbs the losses while the company keeps its coins and keeps paying to hold them.
How the Bitcoin Flywheel was BuiltBy June 22, Strategy held 847,363 BTC bought for $64.1 billion, an average of $75,651 each. That is the largest corporate Bitcoin position anywhere.
MicroStrategy Bitcoin Purchases in 2026. Source: StrategyThe model runs like a flywheel. The company sells stock and debt, buys more Bitcoin, and its shares climb when BTC rises. However, falling prices spin the machine in reverse.
BTC has fallen below $60,000 this week, its lowest level since 2024. The stock has slid with it, dropping under the value of the Bitcoin on its books.
A new accounting standard made the pain visible. Since 2025, FASB rule ASU 2023-08 forces firms to mark Bitcoin to fair value each quarter. As a result, Strategy booked a $14.46 billion unrealized loss in early 2026. That produced a $12.54 billion net loss, or $38.25 for every diluted share.
Michael Saylor's Strategy currently has a $14 billion unrealized loss on bitcoin.
Tom Lee's Bitmine currently has a $10.5 billion unrealized loss on ETH.
This is why it's foolish to follow the smart money and not take profit.
They can survive a crypto winter, most of will not!
— Layah Heilpern (@LayahHeilpern) June 25, 2026 Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Who Actually Pays for MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin BetThe bill does not fall on Strategy alone. As the flywheel slows, the cost spreads to five groups, in rough order of exposure.
Common shareholders They stand first in line. When the stock trades below the value of its Bitcoin, the company still raises cash by selling new shares. Each sale buys less Bitcoin than it hands away.
“If we decide to sell $1 billion of MSTR stock and buy $1 billion of Bitcoin… when you do it at 1.0x MNAV… it is dilutive. It is a minus 48 basis point yield. It costs the shareholders $310 million,” Michael Saylor, Executive Chairman, Strategy, said during Q1 2026 earnings call.
Existing owners are left holding a smaller claim on the same coins, and that dilution is how the strategy gets funded.
Investors in other treasury companies The copycats have fared worse than the original. Their shares once traded far above the Bitcoin they held, lifted by hype.
As that premium faded, many Bitcoin treasury company stocks fell much harder than Bitcoin itself, leaving late buyers deep underwater.
“If that’s not already a bubble burst, how would that bubble burst?” Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMine, said while many treasury stocks traded below net asset value.
Passive and index fund investors This group never chose the bet. MSCI has proposed removing companies whose digital assets exceed half their total assets from its global indexes.
“Feedback from the consultation confirmed institutional investor concern that some DATCOs exhibit characteristics similar to investment funds, which are not eligible for inclusion in the MSCI Indexes,” MSCI said in its official announcement earlier this year.
Strategy clears that bar with ease. An exclusion would force index funds and pension trusts to sell automatically, whatever the price, just to keep tracking the benchmark.
Convertible bondholders and preferred shareholders These investors lent on the assumption that MicroStrategy could always refinance. If Bitcoin stays depressed into 2027, that assumption breaks.
“Proceeds from the bitcoin sales are expected to be used to fund distributions on preferred stock,” Strategy indicated in the June 1 Form 8-K.
Bondholders can demand cash, and preferred holders still expect dividends, both drawing on a reserve of just $1.4 billion.
MicroStrategy itself The company is the backstop of last resort. On its first quarter 2026 earnings call, Michael Saylor again framed Strategy as a net buyer that never sells.
“We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend just to inoculate the market, just to send the message that we did it.”
Yet if financing freezes while debt and dividends come due, keeping that vow could become impossible.
“We will sell Bitcoin when it is advantageous to the company. We are not going to sit back and just say we will never sell the Bitcoin,” Strategy co-CEO Phong Le added.
The Real Test Arrives in 2027MicroStrategy faces no margin call today. Its main debt is unsecured, so a falling price alone cannot trigger a forced sale. The threat is a date, not a level.
Holders of a $1.01 billion convertible note can demand repayment on September 15, 2027. If the shares sit below the conversion price, that claim becomes a cash bill the company must cover.
Strategy has neared this edge before. A 2022 Silvergate loan backed by Bitcoin carried a margin call near $21,000 before the firm repaid it. Moving to unsecured notes and preferred stock removed the automatic trigger, but not the obligation.
Microstrategy took a loan to buy more #bitcoin a few months ago using 19,000 $BTC as collateral.
Margin call price is $21,000…
Time to post some more collateral I think!
— Lark Davis (@LarkDavis) June 13, 2022 Some peers have already blinked. This month one Nasdaq company sold Bitcoin to repay debt, and its shares jumped. Analysts have also questioned Strategy’s exit liquidity if it is ever forced to sell at scale.
For now, no forced sale looms. The pressure has simply moved from a price trigger to a calendar. The number that matters is no longer $60,000, but the September 2027 repayment date.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched missile and drone strikes targeting US military installations in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 28, marking a significant escalation in a conflict that has been simmering since early 2026. The IRGC claimed to have struck eight sites, including Ali Al-Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the US 5th Fleet base in Bahrain.
Kuwaiti and Bahraini forces intercepted most of the incoming projectiles. No US casualties were reported, and damage was described as limited.
What happened on the ground The strikes involved a combination of ballistic missiles and drones. The IRGC framed the offensive as retaliation for prior US airstrikes on Iranian targets, part of a tit-for-tat cycle that has defined the 2026 conflict.
Both Kuwait and Bahrain host critical US military infrastructure in the Gulf. Ali Al-Salem has served as a logistics hub for American operations in the region for decades. The 5th Fleet base in Bahrain is the nerve center of US naval operations overseeing the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes daily.
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Iran’s messaging after the strikes carried a pointed warning: continued US military actions could jeopardize ongoing peace negotiations.
The broader conflict has been building since February, with repeated exchanges of strikes between the US, Israel, and Iran throughout the spring.
How crypto markets reacted Bitcoin dipped to around $99.5K in the immediate aftermath as traders moved to reduce risk exposure, then rebounded past $102K as markets digested the limited damage and lack of casualties.
Oil prices also climbed on the news. Rising energy costs feed into inflation expectations, which influence central bank policy, which in turn shapes the liquidity environment that risk assets like Bitcoin trade in.
Trading volumes spiked during the initial sell-off and subsequent bounce, suggesting that much of the price action was driven by short-term positioning rather than any fundamental reassessment of Bitcoin’s value proposition.
What this means for investors Bitcoin’s behavior during these events reveals something interesting about its evolving identity. It doesn’t act purely as a safe haven asset the way gold does during military escalations, but it also doesn’t collapse like a speculative tech stock. It experiences short-term drawdowns that tend to reverse within hours or days as long as the underlying conflict remains contained.
The key variable to watch is the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran were to directly threaten shipping through that chokepoint, rather than targeting military bases, the market response would likely be far more severe and sustained.
The BTC dip to $99.5K was relatively mild, but leveraged positions that assumed $100K as a floor learned an uncomfortable lesson, however briefly. The rebound past $102K bailed out some of those trades.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
Debate over technical indicators and institutional demand has reignited in the Bitcoin market. With the prospect of a rare “death cross” emerging on the weekly chart, attention has also turned to valuation pressures at Michael Saylor’s Strategy—formerly MicroStrategy—a company known for its sizable Bitcoin holdings.
Death cross signal emerges on the weekly chartCrypto Rover highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching a death cross on the weekly chart. This technical formation, where the short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average, is generally viewed as a signal of market weakness.
Crypto Rover remarked that Bitcoin is nearing a death cross on the weekly timeframe, noting that the last time such a signal appeared, the price went on to decline by another 28%.
The analysis further referenced the historical four-year cycle in Bitcoin’s price, suggesting that if similar patterns repeat, any correction could extend further into the current cycle’s later stages.
Mini glossary: A death cross occurs in technical analysis when a shorter-term moving average drops below a longer-term one. When observed on the weekly chart, it is rarer than daily signals and often used to discuss longer-term market trends.
Because weekly chart formations are less common than those seen on daily charts, investors tend to watch these signals for insights into broader market direction rather than short-term price swings. However, it remains clear that technical indicators alone do not determine future prices; liquidity conditions, macroeconomic factors, and institutional demand also play crucial roles.
Strategy’s valuation triggers debateWhile technical signals suggest weakness, Michael Saylor has kept market expectations alive regarding fresh Bitcoin purchases. His call for further chart updates was interpreted as a possible hint at more buying. Strategy, known as MicroStrategy until recently, is a US-based software and treasury company recognized for its large-scale Bitcoin acquisitions.
Wise Advice pointed out that Strategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV) ratio fell below 1.0 in this cycle for the first time, emphasizing that the company’s stock now trades below the market value of its Bitcoin holdings.
The core of the discussion hinges on the gap between Strategy’s market capitalization and the value of its Bitcoin assets. The fall of the mNAV ratio below 1.0 indicates the company’s entire market value is now less than the sum total of its Bitcoin holdings.
Previously, company management suggested that issuing new shares below an mNAV of around 1.22 could result in losses for existing shareholders. This has sparked debate over the feasibility of financing additional Bitcoin purchases by selling equity at the current ratio.
IndicatorCurrent statusKey thresholdBitcoin weekly chartDeath cross risk28% drop after previous signalStrategy mNAVDropped below 1.0Debate over 1.22 levelSaylor’s brief message underscored ongoing interest in Strategy’s long-standing policy of accumulating Bitcoin. Market participants are now watching whether the company’s next official statement or filing will hint at another Bitcoin purchase.
Overall, the Bitcoin market is at a crossroads, with technical signals and corporate maneuvers both fueling speculation. Many investors are weighing the impact of continued institutional demand against the emergence of bearish patterns on longer-term charts.
Experts generally agree that while technical indicators like the death cross can warn of shifts in market sentiment, actual price direction is still shaped by a complex mix of outside forces. Nonetheless, attention remains fixed on movements by Strategy and the behavior of BTC in the coming weeks.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Bitcoin’s selloff is rarely a single-cause event. But according to Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, the current slump has a very specific driver—a loss of faith in the corporate treasury strategy that once defined this cycle. As detailed in a WuBlockchain report, Novogratz told market participants that “a MicroStrategy-led breakdown in confidence around that complex” is behind the recent decline, fuelling what he described as “a crisis of confidence in Bitcoin.” Alongside hawkish U.S. monetary policy and souring crypto sentiment, the Galaxy Digital chief warned that a decisive move below the $60,000–59,000 support zone could open the door to $45,000.
It’s a blunt call. MicroStrategy has effectively become a leveraged Bitcoin holding company. Chairman Michael Saylor turned the firm into the largest corporate Bitcoin treasury, holding over 200,000 BTC funded partly by debt issuance. For months, the market treated the company’s stock as a high-beta play on Bitcoin itself, often commanding a premium to its underlying holdings. When that premium starts to erode—or worse, when the market questions whether the whole structure can hold together—Bitcoin itself gets dragged down. Novogratz’s framing suggests the unraveling of that premium is now the primary source of spot market pressure.
There is a larger structural question here. When a single corporate entity’s balance sheet is so entwined with Bitcoin’s price, any tremor in its equity or debt can feed back into the crypto market. The confidence breakdown Novogratz points to isn’t necessarily about MicroStrategy’s insolvency risk. It’s about the narrative that drove a whole class of investors—those buying the stock as an easy Bitcoin proxy—to lose conviction. That loss of proxy demand saps liquidity and amplifies downside moves.
Investors are now watching whether the $60,000 level holds as anything more than a psychological line. Novogratz said the $60K–59K zone is critical, and if it fails, the next logical stop is in the mid-$40,000s. That’s a drop that would align with historical correction ranges but would also mean a deeper unwind of the MicroStrategy trade, as liquidations and margin calls in equity-linked instruments could accelerate spot selling.
The Macro Current Pushing Against Bitcoin Novogratz didn’t put all the blame on MicroStrategy. He also pointed to hawkish U.S. monetary policy and deteriorating crypto sentiment as headwinds. With the Federal Reserve holding rates high and showing little appetite for cuts, risk assets across the board are under pressure. Crypto, which has been increasingly correlated with tech stocks, is taking a hit alongside equities. The dollar’s strength and tighter financial conditions create an environment where leveraged positions become harder to maintain.
Regulatory uncertainty is adding another layer of unease. Just days before a critical Senate vote, traditional banks are pushing to reshape the largest crypto legislation in U.S. history. As reported this week, the bill that had seemed headed for broad bipartisan support now faces demands from the banking lobby that could gut its core provisions. The timing is rough. A confidence crisis fed by a corporate strategy is much harder to contain when the regulatory climate feels adversarial.
What the Market Is Actually Watching For traders, the key test is whether spot buyers step in near $60K or if the market drifts lower on thinning volume. The $45,000 level Novogratz flagged would represent a return to the range where Bitcoin consolidated in early 2024 before institutional flows from spot ETFs pushed it higher. Breaking below the current support zone would erase most of that ETF-driven momentum and challenge the idea that institutional adoption alone creates a permanent price floor.
The real uncertainty is whether MicroStrategy’s confidence crisis is a temporary dislocation or a symptom of a deeper problem. If the premium has permanently compressed, the market may need to reprice Bitcoin without the benefit of equity-linked demand. That would leave the asset more reliant on macroeconomic tailwinds and organic accumulation. A macro pivot from the Fed could shift the picture quickly, but until then, the path of least resistance looks cautious.
Market watchers are also tracking on-chain indicators and exchange reserve trends to see whether long-term holders are using this dip to accumulate or whether the selloff is triggering broader distribution. The next few weeks will show whether the MicroStrategy narrative shock marks a reset in Bitcoin’s institutional story or just another sharp correction in a cycle that has already seen plenty of them.
AUTHOR
Max delves deep into the cryptocurrency realm, with a passion for altcoins and NFTs. Convinced of crypto's transformative potential, he envisions a decentralized financial future. Max's background in the financial sector grants him unique insights into global monetary systems. In his leisure, Max embraces the thrill of adventures and is an avid sports enthusiast, finding balance and rejuvenation away from work.
It’s time, perhaps, to move on from Bitcoin, and look at some other bits of coins — virtual representations of everything from US Treasuries and corporate bonds to stocks and commodities.
While the world’s oldest cryptocurrency struggles to come up for air after a 50% slump since October, demand for digital versions of real-world assets is quietly gathering momentum. Their holders carry their investments not in a traditional brokerage account, but directly via their own crypto wallets — as secure blocks of data that can be easily traded peer-to-peer or on exchanges.
Peter Schiff has warned Strategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) investors that Michael Saylor has no easy way out as the stock and its preferred stocks plummet.
Peter Schiff Warns of More MSTR Stock Pain AheadIn an X post, he argued that Saylor has no viable solution as his stocks continue to slide. In particular, he highlighted STRC, the popular preferred stock with an 11% dividend yield, which has suffered a sharp decline in recent weeks.
STRC, together with other preferred stocks like STRD, STRK, and STRF, have all plunged as investors worry about the sustainability of the dividend since Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings don’t generate any cash return.
As such, the company has three potential solutions to continue paying its dividends. It can issue more debt, but this will be expensive as it has over $6.7 billion in debt. Alternatively, it can sell more shares, diluting its investors, or it can sell its Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC).
In his post, Schiff warned that selling Bitcoin would be dangerous for the company because it could trigger a steeper decline. Earlier this month, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 after the company sold just 32 coins. Schiff also argued that pausing its Bitcoin purchases would put further downward pressure on BTC.
In another post, Schiff argued that Strategy’s collapse would have more severe consequences for the cryptocurrency industry than FTX’s downfall in 2022. FTX customers lost more than $9 billion when the exchange collapsed, although many were eventually made whole through the bankruptcy process. In the aftermath, the cryptocurrency market shed more than $200 billion in value.
Michael Saylor Hints at Further Bitcoin PurchasesStill, despite the woes, Saylor appears unfazed with the MSTR and STRC crashes. In an X post, he hinted that Strategy continued accumulating Bitcoin last week. He attached the orange chart, noting that he will need more charts.
Strategy has spent the past six years accumulating Bitcoin and now holds 847,363 coins worth more than $50.4 billion. However, the company acquired them at a total cost of about $64 billion, leaving it with billions of dollars in unrealized losses.
Meanwhile, its stock has plunged from $540 in November 2024 to $82, wiping out more than $100 billion in market value as its market capitalization fell from $128 billion to about $28 billion.
Image: Shutterstock
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The technico-financial showdown that Strategy faces today against the macroeconomic realities of the market has just passed a critical threshold. This situation reveals the theoretical limits of an aggressive accumulation model that seemed infallible until now. While the company’s valuation decreases unprecedentedly compared to its real assets, the choices of its leaders could redefine the very structure of corporate finance linked to cryptos.
In Brief Michael Saylor announces a new Bitcoin purchase as Strategy goes through a more delicate period. The fall of the mNAV below the threshold of 1 challenges the financial model that supported the company’s accumulation strategy until now. The difficulties faced by the STRC preferred shares now complicate future capital raises. Facing rising financing costs, Strategy will have to choose between continuing its Bitcoin purchases or preserving its financial structure. Michael Saylor’s signal and the state of Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves Strategy’s chairman, Michael Saylor, once again captured the attention of the financial community by posting on the social network X an update of his company’s Bitcoin tracker, while Brad Garlinghouse has just criticized this model. This message, far from trivial, contained an explicit statement: “we will need more charts”.
In the language and background of this company, this type of enigmatic communication typically introduces an official announcement of a significant bitcoin acquisition presented to regulatory authorities.
The company’s current factual data are as follows :
The state of global reserves : the company’s balance sheet shows a colossal position of 847,363 BTC in treasury, consolidating its place as the undisputed leader among listed entities exposed to the flagship crypto ; The market context : this release occurs while the bitcoin price trades at $59,888, dangerously oscillating below the psychological barrier of $60,000 ; The last official operation : it dates back to June 22, with the purchase of an additional 520 BTC for approximately $35 million ; The cost price of the operation : this last acquisition was negotiated at an average price of $67,068 per coin, putting these recent investments under pressure. The recent drop in the bitcoin price thus puts these last deployed funds in the red, but management continues to display a desire for continuous accumulation, regardless of short-term fluctuations.
Strategy’s modified net asset value (mNAV) has fallen for the first time in this market cycle below the critical threshold of 1.0 to around 0.80. This essential financial measure indicates that the company’s stock now trades below the real value of the bitcoins it holds in reserve. Such a break invalidates the so-called “flywheel effect” mechanism previously used by the firm.
The model consisted of issuing new shares whenever the stock traded at a premium to bitcoin in order to buy more tokens and increase the BTC per share ratio for investors, a strategy that becomes mathematically destructive of value when the mNAV falls below 1.0.
Strategy’s management had previously stated that issuing common shares below the 1.22x mNAV threshold would be dilutive and harmful to existing shareholders. To circumvent this constraint and continue to finance its operations, the company resorted to alternative structures, notably STRC preferred shares.
However, this financial product also deteriorates sharply, trading at a price well below its target value of 100 dollars. The overall decrease in bitcoin asset value below the company’s cumulative purchase cost severely affects market confidence and significantly increases the cost of raising additional capital.
The flaws in the capital structure and the outlook The fall of Strategy’s derivative financial instruments exposes the company to a new structural risk. The inability to raise equity without harming existing shareholders prevents access to traditional low-cost financing that contributed to the firm’s success.
Moreover, the heavy discount suffered by STRC preferred shares shows that the institutional market now demands a significantly higher risk premium to support Michael Saylor’s treasury policy. This distrust results in a geometric increase in debt costs, severely limiting the company’s room for maneuver to meet its yield commitments and finance future bitcoin purchase campaigns.
Going forward, this situation places Strategy before a delicate choice. Advocates of an aggressive approach argue on one side that the company must take advantage of the bitcoin dip to buy tokens at a low price, betting on a rapid market rebound. On the other hand, more cautious analysts warn of the risk of massive dilution and weakening of the company’s financial structure if it persists in purchasing assets with capital that is now too costly.
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Luc Jose A.
Diplômé de Sciences Po Toulouse et titulaire d'une certification consultant blockchain délivrée par Alyra, j'ai rejoint l'aventure Cointribune en 2019. Convaincu du potentiel de la blockchain pour transformer de nombreux secteurs de l'économie, j'ai pris l'engagement de sensibiliser et d'informer le grand public sur cet écosystème en constante évolution. Mon objectif est de permettre à chacun de mieux comprendre la blockchain et de saisir les opportunités qu'elle offre. Je m'efforce chaque jour de fournir une analyse objective de l'actualité, de décrypter les tendances du marché, de relayer les dernières innovations technologiques et de mettre en perspective les enjeux économiques et sociétaux de cette révolution en marche.
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The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz said that one of the main reasons for the recent decline in Bitcoin is the loss of confidence stemming from Strategy. According to Novogratz, the problem is not limited to the weakness in Bitcoin’s price; the real pressure comes from concerns spreading in the market regarding Strategy’s funding model.
Strategy, the world’s largest publicly traded institutional BTC holder, has become a closely watched indicator in the cryptocurrency market, not only through its own shares but also through its preferred securities. The company’s stock and STRC performance is monitored by traders to gauge risk appetite in the Bitcoin market.
Strategy’s “premium share issuance” model, previously used to finance Bitcoin purchases, has recently come under pressure. The fact that the company’s market capitalization at one point fell below the value of its BTC assets has raised questions about the sustainability of this model.
Novogratz stated that STRC was trading weakly, adding that under normal circumstances, the asset should remain around $100. It was noted that Strategy’s annual dividend obligation had risen to approximately $1.2 billion, and with the decrease in cash reserves, the dividend coverage period had shortened to approximately 14 months.
Macroeconomic pressures continue on the Bitcoin front. Novogratz summarized the current market dynamics with the words, “a strong dollar means a weak BTC.” Hawkish messages from central banks and the strengthening dollar are suppressing demand for risky assets.
From a technical perspective, the $59,000 to $60,000 range stands out as a critical support zone for Bitcoin. A break below this level could lead to a pullback to $45,000 for BTC.
Novogratz acknowledged that the current outlook is quite complex, stating that the probability of a recovery versus a deep correction for Bitcoin is almost equal at this stage. ETF outflows, weak liquidity, and cautious positioning in the options market also indicate that market sentiment remains fragile.
*This is not investment advice.
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The Crypto Market moved lower ahead of Monday, with Bitcoin again setting the tone for risk assets.
Total crypto market value slipped to $2.06 trillion as fear deepened among traders. Bitcoin price traded near $59,568 after ETF withdrawals and macro worries hit sentiment.
Gold and silver also drew attention as investors weighed safety demand. Traders also tracked wider volatility in stocks, bonds, and crypto-linked shares before global markets opened for Monday trading.
Here’s Why the Crypto Market, Bitcoin, Stocks, and Gold Could Face Heavy Volatility The Crypto Market is heading into Monday with a weaker tone and fewer clear support signals. Bitcoin price remains the main driver of sentiment after falling more than the wider market. That move showed traders are still using Bitcoin as a quick gauge for risk.
Markets face renewed pressure ahead of Monday as macro and geopolitical risks deepen across major asset classes. Fresh concerns over possible Fed tightening, Treasury weakness, and Japan’s bond stress are weighing on global sentiment.
🚨 WARNING: MONDAY WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!!
→ Fed just confirmed rate HIKES.
→ Iran violated the ceasefire, and the peace deal is
CANCELLED.
→ Japan is DUMPING U.S. Treasuries.
→ The AI bubble is starting to COLLAPSE.
If you hold any assets today, you MUST read this:… pic.twitter.com/TbFVBLgTQl
— 0xNobler (@CryptoNobler) June 27, 2026
Investors are also watching Iran tensions, unstable oil prices, and fading enthusiasm around AI stocks. Analysts warn tighter liquidity could intensify volatility in equities, bonds, metals, and Bitcoin if risk appetite weakens further next week.
The CMC Crypto Fear and Greed Index stood at 16, which points to extreme fear. Such readings appear when traders cut exposure and wait for stronger signals. Thin liquidity can make price moves sharper during uncertain sessions.
Source: CMC The pressure is not limited to crypto. Investors are watching bond yields, oil prices, and geopolitical headlines. If energy prices rise again, inflation concerns could return quickly. That would keep rate expectations firm and pressure speculative assets.
Bitcoin ETF Outflows Deepen Fear as Traders Watch Key Support Levels Bitcoin’s latest weakness also reflects heavy selling through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds saw $1.8 billion in net outflows last week. That was described as the second-largest weekly withdrawal on record.
ETF flows matter because they show how larger investors are positioned. When these products lose money, spot demand can weaken. That often affects Bitcoin first, then spreads into altcoins and crypto stocks.
Source: Sosovalue data The $59,000 area is the level traders are watching. A hold above that zone could help Bitcoin steady. A break below it may bring the recent $58,000 low back into focus.
Daily ETF flow data may decide the next short-term move. Fresh inflows could reduce fear and support a rebound. More outflows would likely keep pressure on the Crypto Market.
Stocks and Gold Brace for Monday Swings Amid Macro Market Stress Stocks, bonds, metals, and crypto may all react to the same macro signals on Monday. That makes the session important for traders across several markets. Bond stress and weaker liquidity have made investors more cautious.
Gold traded near $4,071.95 after gaining 0.98%. Spot gold also recently held close to $4,100 per ounce. That shows investors are still watching safe-haven demand.
Silver traded near $58.92 after rising 1.03%. Metals could stay active if inflation and energy fears return. However, gold and silver can also swing lower during forced selling.
Crypto-linked stocks showed mixed action before Monday. BMNR rose 1.80%, while MSTR fell 3.89%. COIN gained 4.76%, and CRCL climbed 6.99%.
Those moves suggest volatility is already spreading beyond Bitcoin. Monday’s direction may depend on ETF flows, bond yields, oil prices, and risk appetite.
For most of 2026, the CLARITY Act has been XRP’s one great catalyst, the bill that would write its commodity status into federal law. Now prediction markets put its 2026 passage at 42%, down from the low seventies, as a human-trafficking backlash, a banking-lobby fight, and a closing legislative window collide. Here is what the falling odds actually mean for XRP.
Summary
Prediction markets now price the CLARITY Act’s chances of becoming law in 2026 at around 42%, down sharply from highs near 73% earlier in the year. The bill would codify XRP’s classification as a digital commodity into federal statute, the catalyst analysts say could unlock billions in institutional ETF demand. The odds fell as an anti-trafficking coalition attacked a decentralized-finance provision, the banking lobby fought stablecoin rules, and the path to 60 Senate votes narrowed. The legislative window is closing fast: the White House targeted a July finish, the Senate Banking and Agriculture versions still need reconciling, and the August recess effectively ends the year’s chances. For XRP, passage could open a path toward analyst targets of several dollars, while failure or delay removes its one Ripple-specific catalyst and leaves it moving with Bitcoin. For most of 2026, XRP has had one great catalyst hanging over it, a single piece of legislation that holders have treated as the event capable of finally breaking the token out of its year-long range: the CLARITY Act, the crypto market-structure bill that would write XRP’s status as a digital commodity into federal law. For months the bill advanced, clearing the House, then a key Senate committee, and prediction markets priced its passage as increasingly likely, with odds climbing into the low seventies. That optimism has now reversed. As of late June, prediction-market data assigns roughly a 42% probability that the CLARITY Act becomes law in 2026, a sharp decline that reflects mounting trouble on several fronts at once.
A bill that looked, for a while, like it was on a glide path to the president’s desk now sits on a knife edge, and because XRP’s near-term thesis has been so tightly bound to it, the falling odds are a genuinely important development for anyone holding the token. The reason the odds matter so much is that the CLARITY Act is not just another crypto bill for XRP; it is the specific catalyst the market has been waiting on, the one event that could turn today’s favorable but fragile regulatory interpretation into durable statutory certainty. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds have launched and gathered over $1 billion, the token won legal clarity when its long battle with the securities regulator ended, and a later joint classification treated it as a digital commodity, but all of that rests on interpretive ground that a future administration could in principle reverse. The CLARITY Act would put XRP’s commodity status into actual law, removing the last layer of uncertainty that keeps large institutions on the sidelines, and analysts have projected that passage could unlock several billion dollars in additional ETF inflows.
This piece explains why the odds have fallen, the specific obstacles now in the bill’s path, the closing legislative window, and, most importantly, what each outcome, passage or failure, would actually mean for XRP’s price and prospects. The aim is to give holders a clear, grounded read on a catalyst that has become harder to handicap.
Why the odds fell The decline from the low seventies to the low forties did not come from a single event but from a convergence of problems that have collectively made passage look less certain. The most striking new obstacle is a backlash centered on a specific provision of the bill. According to a letter obtained by a Washington publication, the Alliance to End Human Trafficking, a Catholic-backed anti-trafficking organization, urged Senate leaders to revisit a decentralized-finance provision in the CLARITY Act, warning that it could weaken safeguards against illicit finance. The concern centers on Section 604 of the bill, which would codify the Blockchain Regulatory Certainty Act.
Under that provision, software developers who build decentralized blockchain applications would not be held responsible for crimes committed by users of those platforms and would not be treated as money transmitters. The anti-trafficking group warned that this language could open regulatory gaps that make it harder for authorities to detect and track financial activity tied to crimes such as human trafficking. This kind of opposition is politically potent in a way that technical crypto disputes are not, because it reframes the bill from a question of market structure into a question of whether Congress is weakening tools used to fight trafficking. That framing gives wavering lawmakers a powerful reason for caution.
It is not the only pressure. The banking lobby has been fighting provisions related to stablecoin yield and what it characterizes as insufficient bank-equivalent regulation for stablecoin issuers, with prominent banking figures vowing to challenge the bill on the floor, because the CLARITY Act’s framework directly threatens traditional finance’s competitive position in payments. Layered on top is the simple arithmetic of the Senate, where advancing major legislation requires 60 votes to overcome a filibuster. With the governing party holding 53 seats, the bill needs at least seven crossover votes from the opposition, a structurally harder problem than the committee votes it has already cleared.
Each of these pressures, the trafficking backlash, the banking fight, and the vote math, has chipped away at the perceived likelihood of passage, and together they explain why the market has repriced the odds so sharply downward. That is also why the politics around the bill now matter as much as the market-structure text itself. The policy framework may be close, but the votes still have to survive a crowded field of objections before the bill reaches the president’s desk.
The provision at the center of the fight It is worth dwelling on Section 604, because it has become the lightning rod, and understanding it clarifies why the bill suddenly looks more vulnerable. The provision would codify into law a principle that the crypto industry considers foundational: that developers who write the code for decentralized applications should not be treated as money transmitters and should not be held criminally liable for what users do with their software, in the same way that the makers of a web browser or an email protocol are not liable for crimes committed using those tools. To the industry, this is a basic protection for open-source software development, without which building decentralized systems in the U.S. becomes legally perilous. It is one of the reasons crypto firms have pushed so hard for the bill.
To critics, the same provision looks like a loophole. The anti-trafficking coalition’s argument is that by shielding decentralized-finance developers from money-transmitter obligations, the language could remove a layer of monitoring and accountability that helps authorities trace illicit funds, including money tied to human trafficking and other serious crimes. The dispute is, at its core, a genuine and difficult policy tension between two legitimate goals: protecting software developers and open innovation on one side, and preserving law-enforcement tools against financial crime on the other. That tension is precisely what makes the provision such an effective pressure point, because it cannot be dismissed as mere industry lobbying or partisan obstruction; it pits real concerns against each other.
For the bill’s prospects, the significance is that Section 604 gives opponents a substantive, morally weighted objection to rally around, and gives undecided senators a defensible reason to demand changes or withhold support. That is exactly the kind of friction that can stall legislation when the calendar is tight and the vote margin is thin. The bill does not only need supporters who like digital-asset clarity; it needs senators who are comfortable defending the developer-shield language under pressure from law-enforcement and anti-trafficking groups. That is a harder political task than simply explaining why tokens need a market-structure framework.
The legislative window is closing Even setting aside the substantive fights, the CLARITY Act faces a brutal constraint that may matter more than any single objection: time. The legislative calendar for passing a controversial bill in 2026 is narrow and closing. The White House pushed for a finish around the July 4 holiday, a target that officials themselves conceded was tight, and the harder deadline is the August recess, after which campaigning for the autumn elections begins in earnest and the Senate’s floor schedule effectively closes to contested votes. Any realistic path to passage this year therefore runs through a small number of remaining legislative days, and every additional dispute consumes some of that dwindling supply.
Compounding the time pressure is a procedural step that the headline timeline often obscures: reconciliation between two Senate committees. The CLARITY Act’s framework splits jurisdiction over digital assets between the securities regulator and the commodities regulator, and because both the Senate Banking Committee and the Senate Agriculture Committee have claimed a stake, the Banking Committee’s version of the bill must be merged with the Agriculture Committee’s companion legislation before any floor vote can happen. That merger is not complete. The bill cleared the Banking Committee on a bipartisan vote in May and was placed on the Senate’s legislative calendar in early June, making it formally eligible for floor consideration, which is the closest it has ever been to becoming law.
But floor eligibility is not passage. To actually become law, the bill must still be reconciled across the two committees, survive a 60-vote floor vote, be reconciled again with the version the House passed, and then be signed by the president. Each of those steps takes time the calendar may not provide, and if the vote does not come before the recess, the political window that opened this opportunity may not reopen on the same terms. One senator who has championed the bill captured the stakes bluntly, saying they did not come this far to quit at the five-yard line, but the five-yard line in a closing window is exactly where bills die.
What passage would mean for XRP For XRP holders, the entire point of tracking the CLARITY Act is what its outcome would do to the token, so it is worth being specific about both scenarios, beginning with passage. If the bill becomes law and codifies XRP’s digital-commodity status into federal statute, the most important effect would be the removal of the last meaningful layer of regulatory uncertainty, which is the gatekeeper that has kept large institutions cautious. XRP already enjoys more regulatory clarity than almost any major token after its legal battle ended and the joint classification treated it as a commodity, but that clarity rests on interpretive releases rather than statute, and a statute is far more durable. With permanent legal footing, the institutional capital that has waited on the sidelines, pension funds, asset managers, and the like, would have the certainty it needs to allocate.
The clearest channel for that capital is the spot ETF complex. Analysts at a major bank have projected that passage and the resulting clarity could drive several billion dollars of additional inflows into XRP exchange-traded funds, on the order of three to six times what those funds have gathered since launching. Flows of that magnitude would represent a demand shock large enough to push XRP through the resistance levels that have capped it and toward higher targets, with mainstream analyst forecasts in a passage scenario clustering in the several-dollar range by year-end. The more bullish projections reach higher still if a second catalyst, such as Ripple securing a Federal Reserve master account, were to follow.
The important caveat is that some of this may already be partly priced in, because the market has watched the bill advance for months, so the real question is not whether clarity helps XRP but how much of the waiting money actually moves once passage is law versus how much already has. Still, the directional case is clear: passage would be a powerful, fundamentally positive catalyst for XRP, the event that could finally connect the token’s long-promised institutional thesis to actual demand. It would also sit alongside another XRP catalyst in the spotlight, where holders have been trying to separate company-level events from token-level value. In this case, unlike many Ripple corporate developments, the statutory classification would apply directly to the token.
What failure or delay would mean The other side of the ledger is just as consequential, and with the odds now below even, it deserves equal weight. If the CLARITY Act fails or stalls, whether by missing the legislative window, dying in the reconciliation process, or falling short of 60 votes on the floor, XRP would lose its one Ripple-specific catalyst, the single event distinguishing it from the rest of the market. In that scenario, XRP would likely revert to moving with Bitcoin rather than leading on its own regulatory story, surrendering the independent upside that the bill represented. The institutional flows that have supported XRP could reverse, the way weekly ETF inflows did earlier in the year when momentum faded, falling from over $200 million to a trickle within a month.
Without the statutory catalyst, Ripple’s institutional infrastructure would keep growing through stablecoins and fiat rails, but in a way that does not necessarily drive XRP token demand, leaving the familiar gap between corporate progress and token price intact. That is XRP’s other open question: whether Ripple’s wins translate into XRP demand, or whether stablecoins and company-level infrastructure capture most of the value. If the CLARITY Act fails, that question becomes even more important because the regulatory unlock would no longer be there to carry the near-term thesis. XRP would then need ETF flows, ledger usage, and broader crypto risk appetite to do the work instead.
The price implications of failure are meaningful. Analysts have suggested that in a no-bill scenario, XRP could slip back toward the lower end of its range, with some pointing to support around the $1.20 to $1.30 area and warning that a break of the key technical floor on a broader market sell-off could open a path toward materially lower levels with little support in between. A bank that projected large inflows on passage had already trimmed its XRP target on the assumption of a delayed bill rather than a failed one, illustrating how much of the token’s valuation has been riding on this single legislative outcome. That is why the price levels at stake matter: the legal catalyst and the technical chart are now feeding into each other.
The sharpest risk is not merely that the bill fails this year but that failure pushes it out of reach entirely, since a missed 2026 window could shelve the effort for years if the political configuration that enabled it does not recur. For XRP, that would mean losing not just a near-term catalyst but the central pillar of its independent investment case, throwing the token back onto Bitcoin’s coattails and onto the slow, uncertain process of turning network usage into token demand without the regulatory unlock.
The priced-in problem A subtler issue complicates both scenarios and deserves its own attention, because it shapes how XRP might actually react to news: the question of how much of the CLARITY Act’s effect is already in the price. Markets are forward-looking, and the bill’s advance has been the most-watched regulatory story in crypto for the better part of a year, which means XRP’s current price already embeds some probability of passage. This creates a genuine puzzle for holders. If passage is partly priced in, then the actual event, should it come, might produce a smaller pop than the headline suggests, as the market has already bought the rumor and could sell the news.
Conversely, if the market has grown skeptical and priced the bill closer to the current 42% odds, then a clear passage could still surprise to the upside by forcing a repricing toward certainty. This is why XRP has traded in a range even as the bill progressed: each catalyst has been priced as a possibility instead of a fact, because a proof-of-concept settlement is priced as a proof of concept until it becomes recurring volume, an ETF is priced on the flows it actually attracts instead of the flows it might, and a legislative catalyst is priced on the probability of passage, which for the CLARITY Act has stayed well short of certainty. A token sitting on a stack of maybes trades like a token sitting on a stack of maybes: range-bound, reactive, and quick to sell the news. That is the practical problem facing XRP now.
The practical implication for holders is that the falling odds are informative in two directions. They lower the probability the market assigns to the positive catalyst, which is bearish, but they also mean that less of the good news is now priced in, which paradoxically increases the potential upside surprise if the bill does pass against the odds. The cleanest way to read XRP right now is as a token whose price reflects a market that has grown genuinely uncertain about its central catalyst. That makes both the downside of failure and the upside of surprise passage larger than they would be if the outcome were close to settled.
What holders should watch For an XRP holder trying to navigate a catalyst that has become harder to handicap, the analysis points to a focused set of signals worth tracking over the coming weeks. The first and most important is simply whether a floor vote gets scheduled before the August recess, because the closing window is the binding constraint, and the absence of a scheduled vote as the recess approaches would be a strong signal that 2026 passage is slipping away. The progress of the committee reconciliation between the Banking and Agriculture versions is a related early indicator, since the floor vote cannot happen until that merger is done. The second signal is the trajectory of the opposition, particularly whether the Section 604 trafficking objection gains traction with undecided senators or whether sponsors find a way to address it, because that fight has the potential to either stall the bill or, if resolved, clear a path.
The third thing to watch is the prediction-market odds themselves, which have proven to be a useful real-time gauge of the bill’s perceived chances and which will move as developments unfold; a recovery back toward the sixties or seventies would signal renewed momentum, while a further slide would confirm the pessimism. Alongside the legislative signals, holders should keep an eye on the observable market data that will register the outcome regardless of the politics: ETF flows, which would surge on passage and stall on failure, and XRP’s behavior around its key technical levels, particularly whether it holds the support that the bear case threatens. The stablecoin fight also matters because it is one of the pressure points inside the bill, and the stablecoin rules in the bill are part of why banks and crypto firms are fighting so hard over the final text.
The honest synthesis is that the CLARITY Act has gone from a likely catalyst to a genuine coin flip, and with it XRP’s near-term path has become a binary bet on a contested vote in a closing window. Passage would be a powerful positive catalyst capable of unlocking institutional demand; failure would strip XRP of its defining catalyst and throw it back onto Bitcoin’s movements. At 42% and falling, the market is telling holders that the outcome it once treated as probable is now anything but. The next few weeks of the legislative calendar are likely to decide which way XRP breaks.
Frequently asked questions What is the CLARITY Act and why does it matter for XRP? The CLARITY Act is a crypto market-structure bill that would codify the classification of tokens like XRP as digital commodities into federal law. For XRP, this matters enormously because the token’s current commodity status rests on interpretive regulatory releases instead of statute, which a future administration could in principle reverse. Writing that status into actual law would remove the last major source of regulatory uncertainty that keeps large institutions cautious, and analysts have projected that passage could unlock several billion dollars in additional XRP ETF inflows. It has been XRP’s single most important catalyst throughout 2026, which is why its odds of passing move the token.
Why did the CLARITY Act’s odds fall to 42%? The odds fell from highs near 73% because of several problems converging at once. An anti-trafficking coalition attacked Section 604 of the bill, a provision shielding decentralized-finance developers from money-transmitter obligations, warning it could weaken tools against illicit finance. The banking lobby has fought provisions on stablecoin yield and regulation, while the Senate math is hard because advancing the bill requires 60 votes, meaning at least seven crossover votes from the opposition. Combined with a closing legislative calendar, these pressures made passage look far less certain, and prediction markets repriced the probability sharply downward to around 42%.
What happens to XRP if the CLARITY Act passes? Passage would remove the last layer of regulatory uncertainty by writing XRP’s commodity status into durable federal law, giving cautious institutions the certainty they need to allocate. The clearest effect would flow through spot ETFs, with analysts projecting several billion dollars of additional inflows, three to six times what the funds have gathered so far. That demand could push XRP through its resistance levels toward analyst targets in the several-dollar range by year-end, with higher projections if a second catalyst like a Federal Reserve master account followed. The main caveat is that some of this may already be priced in, so the size of the reaction depends on how much waiting money actually moves.
What happens to XRP if the bill fails? Failure or delay would strip XRP of its one Ripple-specific catalyst, likely sending it back to moving with Bitcoin instead of leading on its own regulatory story. Institutional ETF flows could reverse, as they did earlier in the year when momentum faded, and analysts have suggested XRP could slip toward support around $1.20 to $1.30, with a break of its key floor on a broader sell-off opening a path to materially lower levels. The sharpest risk is that a missed 2026 window could shelve the effort for years. That would cost XRP not just a near-term catalyst but the central pillar of its independent investment case.
When is the deadline for the CLARITY Act? The practical deadline is the Senate’s August recess, after which election-year campaigning effectively closes the floor schedule to contested votes. The White House had pushed for a finish around the July 4 holiday, a target officials conceded was tight. Before any floor vote, the Senate Banking Committee’s version must be reconciled with the Senate Agriculture Committee’s companion bill, a merger that is not yet complete, and after a floor vote the bill would still need to be reconciled with the House-passed version and signed by the president. If the vote does not happen before the recess, 2026 passage becomes very unlikely.
Is the CLARITY Act’s effect already priced into XRP? Partly, which complicates how the token may react. The bill’s advance has been the most-watched regulatory story in crypto for nearly a year, so XRP’s price already embeds some probability of passage, which is part of why the token has stayed range-bound: each catalyst gets priced as a possibility instead of a fact. If passage is partly priced in, the actual event could produce a smaller move than expected. But with odds now down at 42%, less of the good news is currently priced in, which paradoxically increases the potential upside surprise if the bill passes against the odds, while also reflecting greater downside risk if it fails.
This article is information, not investment advice. Legislative timelines, prediction-market odds, prices, and analyst projections reflect reporting available as of June 28, 2026, and can change quickly. The status and prospects of the CLARITY Act are uncertain and contested. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell XRP or any security. Verify current developments from primary sources and consider your own circumstances before making any decision.
California’s DFAL Clock Is Ticking: XRP Price Hanging in the Balance
Ahmed Barakat
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Ahmed Balaha is a journalist and copywriter based in Georgia with a growing focus on blockchain technology, DeFi, AI, privacy, digital assets, and fintech innovation.
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California’s Digital Financial Assets Law will take effect on July 1. It requires any firm conducting digital asset business activity with state residents to hold a DFAL license, and have a completed application on file with the DFPI, or cease covered operations. Right now, as of public records, no Ripple entity appears among applicants. XRP price has fallen below the $1.10 level at this moment of uncertainty.
DFAL covers the exchange of digital assets for fiat or other digital assets, their transfer between persons, custody, and the issuance of reserve-backed instruments. It maps directly onto Ripple’s California-facing operations: payments infrastructure, custody services, and the issuance and redemption of RLUSD, Ripple’s dollar-pegged stablecoin.
Ripple’s existing portfolio of 40-plus U.S. money transmitter licenses does not automatically satisfy DFAL; the law is a separate regime administered by the DFPI through the Nationwide Multistate Licensing System.
However, there are three paths to legal compliance by July 1: hold a DFAL license, have a completed application pending with the DFPI, or qualify under a narrow statutory exemption, primarily available to banks, certain trust companies, and SEC- or CFTC-registered entities operating within already-regulated activity.
🗓️Key date for @Ripple – July 1.
Ripple previously engaged CA's DFPI for a DFAL license noting firms can keep operating if submit by 7/1/26. Public docs through March '26 don't list any Ripple entities, though likely filed. Necessary for all CA offerings, issue/redeem/custody. pic.twitter.com/xfQK4Z3IBc
— WrathofKahneman (@WKahneman) June 19, 2026 Ripple has engaged with the process as the company submitted a formal comment letter to the DFPI, pushing to eliminate redundant money transmitter license requirements for DFAL-licensed firms. However, engagement is not the same as a filed application.
Law firms, including Chambers-ranked practices, have described DFAL as one of the most expansive state-level digital asset licensing regimes in the country.
Discover: The Best Crypto to Diversify Your Portfolio
Can XRP Price Hold $1 If Ripple Misses the DFAL Deadline?XRP is trading near $1.10, far below the expected $2.50 many predicted. Recent price action reflects weak momentum, with sellers repeatedly capping rallies around the $1.15 to $1.20 area. Despite ongoing attention on Ripple’s regulatory developments, the market has yet to price in a decisive positive outcome.
Meanwhile, investors remain focused on several legal and regulatory milestones involving Ripple. The court’s earlier finding that XRP itself is not inherently a security removed a major uncertainty. However, the remaining penalty and injunction issues still matter because they could influence Ripple’s future business operations and market sentiment.
From a technical perspective, XRP must first reclaim the $1.15 to $1.20 zone before traders can discuss a stronger trend reversal. If buyers regain control and regulatory developments remain favorable, the next resistance area could emerge around $1.30 to $1.50. A sustained move above those levels would likely require a meaningful catalyst.
On the downside, support remains clustered around $1.05 and $1.00. If regulatory expectations weaken or broader crypto markets turn lower, those levels could come under pressure. The $1.00 mark remains an important psychological threshold, as a decisive break could invite additional selling.
For now, the market appears to be waiting for confirmation rather than trading on assumptions. Regulatory progress could improve sentiment, yet XRP’s longer-term trajectory will likely depend on both legal clarity and stronger demand returning to the market.
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28 June 2026 | 15:41 The story in XRP is a split screen: the derivatives market just went through a violent, one-sided purge of leveraged bets, while network usage keeps climbing.
Key Takeaways XRP saw a one-sided long-liquidation flush, peaking at $6.7M on June 22. Open interest fell 11%, meaning purged positions aren’t being rebuilt. Active addresses rose almost 72% in two weeks even as price fell. XRP trades for $1.04 at the time of writing. The recent move was driven by a liquidation cascade: an 830% spike in long liquidations, which is a mechanical event rather than a sentiment reading. Margin thresholds were breached and positions were force-closed automatically. The roughly $3M in long liquidations dwarfing the short side confirms how one-sided it was, this was a purge of upside bets, not a balanced deleveraging. The climax came on June 22 with a $6.7M flush, the single largest burst of forced selling on the chart, landing exactly as price hit its lowest point near the $1.05 range.
What happened next matters as much as the flush itself. According to recent report, shared by CryptoQuant, open interest dropped from $1.18B to $1.04B, down 11%, while this played out. That’s the tell that separates a flush from a rotation: positions are being closed and not rebuilt. Traders aren’t re-entering, which leaves the market structurally lighter and less amplified than before.
The Funding Rate Hit Its Floor The funding rate adds the second layer. It reached its deepest negative reading of the entire March-to-June window right at the June 22 climax, a -463% shift against the quarterly baseline. Negative funding means shorts are the dominant paid position, longs are effectively being compensated just to hold their positions open.
This is where precision matters. At extremes, negative funding is mechanically unsustainable, because shorts eventually have to cover, which can create upward price pressure. But that’s a precondition for a squeeze, not a guarantee of one, and it should not be read as bullish on its own. It describes a compressed setup, a spring under tension, without saying anything about whether or when it releases.
The Split That Defines Who Actually Sold Here’s the most analytically important data point in the whole picture. While the futures market cascaded, Binance spot reserves fell just 0.35% on the week. Spot holders, in other words, didn’t panic-sell onto exchanges. That cleanly separates two very different actor types: leveraged speculators, who got wrecked, and spot holders, who barely moved.
The absence of spot capitulation during a violent futures flush is what tells you the nature of the selling. This was derivatives-manufactured, the forced unwinding of leveraged positions, rather than organic distribution by the people who actually hold XRP. That distinction changes how to read the entire episode: it was a leverage problem, not a conviction problem among holders.
Metric Status/Result Significance Long Liquidations $6.7M peak (June 22) Violent, one-sided flush of leveraged bets. Open Interest Down 11% Positions are closed, not rebuilt; market is lighter. Binance Spot Reserves Down 0.35% Spot holders didn’t panic; selling was derivatives-manufactured. Active Addresses +71.7% (2 weeks) Real engagement diverging from speculative price drops. The Network Is Growing as Price Falls Now the counter-signal. Daily active addresses rose from about 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 39,500 by June 27, a 71.7% increase in two weeks, according to Ali Charts citing Santiment. Price fell over roughly the same window. Network usage expanding while price contracts is a genuine divergence, and historically these kinds of divergences don’t tend to persist indefinitely.
Network activity on $XRP has surged over the past two weeks.
Daily active addresses have climbed from 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 39,500 today, signaling growing on-chain participation. pic.twitter.com/lqX9oo3AsS
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 28, 2026
It’s important to be exact about what this does and doesn’t say. It doesn’t predict direction. What it indicates is that the chain is being used more, not abandoned, real engagement separating from speculative price behavior. Set against the derivatives picture, the contrast is stark: the futures market shows panic, while the network shows growth.
The Setup, and What Could Confirm a Direction Put the layers together and what you have is structural cleanup, not a directional call. The leverage has been flushed, open interest has compressed and isn’t rebuilding, funding sits at an extreme, spot holders stayed put, and on-chain activity is rising. That combination describes a market that’s been deleveraged and is being actively used, which could resolve in either direction.
The honest framing is that the network’s continued growth provides a floor narrative, evidence the chain isn’t being abandoned, rather than a price prediction. As for what to watch: the negative funding extreme is the squeeze precondition, but the signal that would actually confirm a direction is open interest. If OI starts rebuilding alongside rising price, that’s leverage returning on the long side; if it stays compressed, the market remains light and unconfirmed either way. The deleveraging is real and largely complete.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a professional before making investment decisions.
Author
Kosta has reported on cryptocurrency markets and blockchain infrastructure since 2020, bringing over six years of hands-on experience in the crypto industry built through daily tracking of markets, trends, and emerging blockchain developments. Specializing in Bitcoin on-chain analysis, institutional ETF flows, and digital asset price action, his work at Coindoo has been cited by other news agencies and consistently covers market developments with a focus on data-driven reporting across Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP. Over the years, Kosta has contributed to multiple crypto media outlets in different regions, authoring over 6,000 articles across the sector. His reporting spans cryptocurrency markets and the broader fintech industry, tracking not only price action but also the technological and regulatory forces shaping the ecosystem. To support his analysis, Kosta actively leverages on-chain data and metrics from leading platforms such as Santiment, Glassnode, and CryptoQuant, enabling deeper, evidence-based market insights. He believes in the power of transparency and the data that underpins the blockchain ecosystem. His academic background in Marketing Management from Denmark further complements his analytical approach, adding a strong understanding of communication strategy and content positioning to his work.
Brad Garlinghouse said one word, “maybe,” and the XRP community heard a promise. Asked whether holders could get a piece of Ripple if it goes public, he nodded toward a “special arrangement.” This is what was actually said, what holders could realistically receive, and the downside almost nobody is talking about.
Summary
Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse said that “if and when” Ripple goes public, the company might do “something special” for XRP holders, then immediately added it was “not in the immediate term.” That hedged “maybe” was offered in response to a direct question, not volunteered as a plan, and he declined to commit to any mechanism such as a token buyback. Ripple and XRP are legally and financially separate assets: holding XRP grants no shares, no dividends, and no claim on Ripple’s corporate profits, and no bridge between the two currently exists. The mechanisms holders imagine, preferential IPO share access, long-term holding rewards, or tokenized Ripple equity, are all unannounced and face serious securities-law hurdles given XRP’s legal history. The overlooked risk is that a Ripple IPO could actually pressure XRP, by drawing institutional capital toward Ripple stock and pushing the company to monetize its escrow holdings to satisfy public-market investors. One word from Ripple’s chief executive set the XRP community alight, and that word was “maybe.” Speaking on the “Crypto In America” podcast with journalist Eleanor Terrett, Brad Garlinghouse was asked the question XRP holders have wanted answered for years: if Ripple ever goes public, could the people who hold XRP get a piece of it. He did not say no. He gestured first at the indirect benefits Ripple already provides, then, pressed on whether the company would do something specific for holders in an initial public offering, he said, “Maybe, but that is not in the immediate term.”
JUST IN: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says the company processed $13T in payments last year with no immediate IPO plans pic.twitter.com/f9bd80FPsX
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) May 5, 2026 That was the entire substance of it, a hedged possibility wrapped in a qualification, offered in answer to a direct question rather than announced as a plan. And yet within hours it had been clipped, shared, and reshaped across XRP social media into something close to a corporate commitment, with community members urging one another to “hold accordingly.” The gap between what Garlinghouse actually said and what the community heard is the real story here, because the difference between a hinted-at maybe and a planned reward is the difference between a reasonable hope and a misplaced expectation.
The reason the remark landed so hard is the situation it landed into. XRP holders have spent 2026 watching Ripple collect exactly the kind of institutional wins the community long predicted, settlements with JPMorgan, stablecoin launches with major partners, a steady drumbeat of bank deals, while the token itself has stayed pinned near a dollar and change, beneath every major moving average. That combination, corporate triumph paired with token stagnation, breeds a particular hunger: the sense that the wins are real but are somehow not reaching holders, and that some missing mechanism could finally connect the two. Into that hunger dropped Garlinghouse’s nod, and it did what a catalyst does in a starved market.
This piece separates the hope from the reality. It covers exactly what was said and the precise wording that matters, the crucial distinction between Ripple the company and XRP the token, the mechanisms a holder benefit could theoretically take and why each is harder than it sounds, why Ripple may not even go public soon, the indirect benefit Ripple genuinely does provide, and the downside almost nobody is discussing: that an IPO could actually work against XRP. The goal is the real picture, neither dismissing the possibility nor inflating it into the certainty the hype implied.
What Garlinghouse actually said Precision matters here, because the entire community reaction rests on a few carefully chosen words, and those words were more conditional than the excitement suggested. Garlinghouse did not volunteer the remark; he was asked directly whether XRP holders could share in Ripple’s success if the company eventually launched an initial public offering. His first instinct was to point to the indirect benefit Ripple already provides, saying he hopes XRP holders feel they benefit from Ripple’s existence through the work the company does to grow the XRP ecosystem. Only when pressed on whether Ripple would do something specific for holders in an IPO scenario did he offer the line that ignited everything: “Maybe, but that is not in the immediate term.”
When pushed further on concrete mechanisms, including a possible token buyback, he declined to commit to any of them, pointing back instead to what Ripple already does for the ecosystem. So the full extent of the supposed promise is a “maybe,” qualified as not near-term, given in response to a direct question rather than offered as a plan, with no program described, no mechanism named, and no action committed to. The community heard “Ripple will do something special for holders.” What Garlinghouse actually said was closer to “maybe someday, if we go public, which is not happening soon.”
Those are not the same statement, and stacking the two conditionals reveals how far the exciting headline sits from anything concrete: a possible benefit, attached to a possible IPO, that he himself describes as not a priority. It is worth adding that days earlier, at an industry conference, Garlinghouse had been cooler still on the idea of going public at all, emphasizing that staying private gives Ripple flexibility. Read in that context, the podcast remark was a hint, not a plan and certainly not a promise. Any honest assessment of what holders would actually get has to begin from that fact rather than from the amplified version that spread online.
Ripple is not XRP: the distinction that decides everything To understand why this question is so charged, and so easily misunderstood, you have to grasp a distinction that still confuses many people: Ripple and XRP are legally and financially separate assets, and owning one does not mean owning the other. Ripple is a private technology company that builds payment and liquidity products, some of which use the XRP Ledger. XRP is a cryptocurrency, the native asset of the XRP Ledger, which is a decentralized, open-source blockchain that Ripple does not control. Holding XRP gives you ownership of that token and nothing else.
It confers no shares in Ripple, no dividends, no voting rights, and no claim whatsoever on Ripple’s corporate profits or assets. The two are different things with different value drivers, and the price of one does not automatically move the other. That distinction is why the company-versus-token gap keeps resurfacing across Ripple’s 2026 story. Ripple can win institutional business, launch products, and deepen its corporate value without automatically delivering a direct benefit to XRP holders.
This separation is the foundation of the entire holder-payout question, because it means there is no existing structure, no dividend, no buyback mechanism, no holder-equity bridge, that currently connects Ripple’s corporate fortunes to the people who hold XRP. Any such benefit would require a deliberate corporate decision: Ripple choosing to extend something to holders of a token that is legally distinct from its stock. That is precisely what makes Garlinghouse’s “maybe” notable, because it gestures at the possibility of Ripple voluntarily building a connection that does not exist and is not required to exist. The community’s hope is that Ripple might someday decide to construct that bridge.
The reality is that no bridge exists today, none is planned, and the entire question is whether Ripple might ever choose to build one. Everything that follows, every imagined mechanism and every obstacle, flows from this single fact: a Ripple IPO would, by default, do nothing for XRP holders, because the token and the company are separate. Only an affirmative, deliberate choice by Ripple could change that. Until such a choice is announced, a holder payout remains speculation, not entitlement.
The mechanisms holders imagine Once the “maybe” spread, the community began filling in the blank with specific mechanisms, and it is worth laying them out, because they define the range of what “something special” could plausibly mean. The most discussed idea is preferential access to IPO shares, an arrangement in which verified long-term XRP holders, or users staking on the XRP Ledger, would be granted priority subscription rights to buy into a Ripple offering at favorable terms before the general public. This is the version that most directly answers the community’s wish, because it would let XRP holders transition, at least partly, into Ripple shareholders. It would turn token loyalty into an equity stake.
A second imagined mechanism is a long-term holding reward, a community-based structure that would give some benefit to holders who have kept XRP for a defined period, rewarding loyalty without necessarily handing over equity. A third, more technically ambitious idea is tokenized Ripple equity: a blockchain-based representation of Ripple stock made available to eligible token holders, which would use the very tokenization technology the industry is racing to build in order to bridge the gap between Ripple shares and XRP. Some in the community have also floated the notion of an “equity-token-bound” proof of entitlement, a digital claim linking XRP holding to some future right in Ripple. Each of these would, in its own way, construct the bridge between Ripple equity and XRP holders that currently does not exist.
The crucial thing to hold in mind is that all of them remain imagined, not announced. Garlinghouse named none of them; he declined, in fact, to endorse any specific structure when asked. They represent the community’s wish list of what “something special” might be, not a menu Ripple has offered. The distance between a fan’s plausible idea and a company’s actual program is considerable, especially when the imagined benefit touches securities law, global compliance, investor eligibility, and the legal separation between Ripple equity and XRP.
Why each mechanism is harder than it sounds The reason Garlinghouse spoke in hints instead of specifics is almost certainly that nearly every concrete version of a holder benefit collides with serious obstacles, and understanding those obstacles is essential to a realistic view. The largest is securities law, and it is a particularly sharp problem for XRP of all tokens. Linking a cryptocurrency’s holding to equity benefits raises exactly the kind of securities-law questions that defined Ripple’s long and costly legal battle, the years-long fight over whether XRP sales amounted to unregistered securities transactions. Building a formal bridge that rewards XRP holders with equity or equity-like rights risks recreating the very entanglement between the token and the company that Ripple spent years and enormous legal resources trying to separate.
The company would have to navigate that terrain with extreme care, because a poorly designed holder-benefit program could reintroduce the argument that XRP is a security tied to Ripple’s enterprise, which is the last thing Ripple wants. That is why the catalyst that matters more than the IPO is still statutory clarity from the CLARITY Act, not an undefined corporate reward. Federal clarity can strengthen XRP’s status without blurring the line between the token and Ripple equity. A holder-equity program, by contrast, could blur that line if designed carelessly.
Beyond securities law, the practical obstacles multiply. A preferential-share program would require verifying who is a genuine long-term holder, drawing cutoff lines that would inevitably be seen as arbitrary or unfair, and managing the identity and compliance machinery to do it at scale across a global, pseudonymous holder base. A holding-reward structure raises questions of how to fund it and how to avoid favoring large holders over small ones. Tokenized equity would face the full weight of securities regulation governing who can own and trade company stock, plus the technical and legal work of making a regulated equity instrument function on a blockchain.
Each mechanism, in other words, is not just a matter of Ripple deciding to be generous; it is a tangle of legal exposure, fairness problems, and operational complexity, any one of which could sink it. This is why the most dramatic interpretations of “special arrangement” are also the least likely. A sober reading has to weight the modest possibilities, a governance gesture, a symbolic recognition, or simply Ripple structuring its business so more value flows through XRP over time, far more heavily than the windfall the community imagined.
Why Ripple may not even go public soon The entire holder-benefit scenario is downstream of a prior question that often gets lost in the excitement: will Ripple even go public at all, and if so, when. On this, Garlinghouse has been consistent and notably unenthusiastic. He has repeatedly described an IPO as not a priority, and his reasoning is grounded in the current state of the public markets for crypto companies. He has pointed to the underwhelming performance of crypto-related public listings, citing peers whose post-listing stock has struggled, and noted reports that at least one major exchange had delayed its own listing plans.
His view, in short, is that the public markets have not treated Ripple’s peers well, and that there is little reason to rush into that environment. He has also made a positive case for staying private, arguing that it preserves flexibility, including, he joked, the freedom to speak openly without lawyers drafting every word. This is not the posture of a company on the verge of ringing the opening bell. It means the holder-benefit question is built on a foundation that is itself uncertain: a possible reward contingent on an IPO that the chief executive describes as neither planned nor imminent.
That is the sense in which the whole thing is a maybe attached to a maybe. For an XRP holder weighing what they might receive, this is the most important practical point, because even the most generous imaginable holder benefit is irrelevant unless and until Ripple actually decides to go public. By Garlinghouse’s own account, that decision is not on the calendar. The community’s hope therefore rests on two sequential uncertainties: first that Ripple goes public, and second that, having done so, it chooses to extend something to holders it is under no obligation to help.
Either link breaking is enough to make the whole scenario evaporate. That is why the IPO hint should not be treated like a near-term catalyst, even if it tells holders something about how Ripple thinks about its community. The comment matters as a signal of openness, but it does not change the current legal structure, the current IPO timeline, or the current token economics. XRP holders should separate those categories carefully.
The indirect benefit Ripple already provides Set against the speculation is Garlinghouse’s actual, stated position, which deserves a fair hearing because it is not a trivial argument: that XRP holders already benefit from Ripple’s existence, indirectly but intentionally. The foundation of this argument is a simple fact: Ripple is the largest single holder of XRP. That gives the company a stronger economic incentive than anyone else to increase the token’s value and adoption, because Ripple profits when XRP rises, just as holders do. Its incentives are genuinely aligned with holders, even without any formal program linking the two.
Every commercial partnership Ripple pursues, every payment corridor it opens, every institutional deal it closes, and every regulatory battle it fights is evaluated, at least in part, through the lens of how it drives XRP utility and liquidity. Garlinghouse’s framing is that this alignment is the real benefit, that Ripple’s entire strategy is built around making XRP the most useful, liquid, and trusted digital asset in payments and settlement, and that by growing the ecosystem it makes what holders own more valuable, even without a dividend or an equity link. That is where XRP’s actual utility remains central to the long-term case. The token’s real thesis has to rest on usage, liquidity, and settlement demand, not on implied ownership of Ripple.
NEW: JPMorgan, Mastercard, Ondo Finance and Ripple complete tokenized Treasury redemption test on XRP Ledger. Settlement took roughly 5 seconds compared to 3 to 5 business days on traditional rails pic.twitter.com/9Rkd3MkWF4
— crypto.news (@cryptodotnews) June 12, 2026 Garlinghouse has pointed to concrete examples of this posture, including Ripple’s backing of XRP treasury companies such as Evernorth, which is working to build a large XRP treasury business with Ripple’s support, an effort Garlinghouse frames as helping XRP holders, the XRP community, and Ripple shareholders at the same time. This argument has genuine merit and should not be dismissed as spin. The company’s commercial work plausibly does increase XRP’s utility and demand over time, which is a real, if diffuse, benefit to anyone holding the token. The counterpoint, and the reason the “maybe” resonated, is that many in the community find this indirect alignment insufficient.
They want a concrete share of Ripple’s corporate success, not an incentive structure that may or may not translate into token-price appreciation. That dissatisfaction is precisely the nerve Garlinghouse’s remark touched. His indirect-benefit argument is, in effect, his answer to it: you already benefit, just not in the direct way you want. Whether that answer satisfies holders depends on whether Ripple’s wins eventually become visible in XRP demand rather than simply in Ripple’s corporate valuation.
The downside nobody mentions: an IPO could hurt XRP Here is the part of the story that the bullish excitement almost entirely skips: a Ripple IPO is not unambiguously good for XRP, and there is a credible case that it could actively work against the token, at least in the near term. The first channel is competition for capital. Today, an institution that wants exposure to Ripple’s success has essentially one liquid way to get it: buy XRP, the token associated with the company’s ecosystem. If Ripple goes public, that changes.
Suddenly there is a direct way to own a piece of Ripple itself, a regulated equity that offers what a token cannot: potential dividends, audited financial transparency, ownership of the company’s actual assets and cash flows, and the compliance comfort of a listed stock. Faced with that choice, institutional capital that might have flowed into XRP as a proxy for Ripple could instead flow into Ripple stock, siphoning off the very institutional demand the XRP bull case depends on. The IPO, in this reading, would give the market a cleaner instrument for the Ripple thesis, and XRP could lose its role as the default vehicle for it. That is the uncomfortable side of where XRP trades while holders wait: the market wants direct token demand, not merely a story about Ripple’s corporate success.
The second channel is selling pressure from Ripple itself. As a private company, Ripple has long been criticized for selling XRP from its large escrow holdings, a persistent source of new supply. After an IPO, that pressure could intensify instead of ease, because a public company answers to Wall Street’s quarterly demands for cash flow and profitability. To satisfy those demands and bolster its financial reports, Ripple’s board could face strong incentives to monetize tens of billions of XRP from its escrow accounts in a more systematic and aggressive way, creating an invisible, long-term overhang on the token’s price.
None of this is certain, and a well-managed IPO could be handled in ways that limit these effects, but the point is that the community’s framing of an IPO as pure upside for holders is incomplete. The honest version acknowledges that going public is a double-edged sword for XRP. It could, in the bullish case, come bundled with a “special arrangement” that rewards holders, or it could, in the bearish case, drain attention and capital away from the token while increasing the supply pressure on it. Holders hoping for the first should at least weigh the second.
What it means for holders today So what should an XRP holder actually take from all of this, standing in the present with the token trading near a dollar and the “special arrangement” still nothing more than a hedged remark? The disciplined answer is to give the IPO hint the weight it actually carries, which is to say very little, and to keep attention on the catalysts that truly move XRP. A possible IPO reward is a weak basis for any decision, because it is a maybe attached to a maybe: an unplanned, undefined benefit contingent on an IPO that Ripple does not prioritize. It is better regarded as a distant possible upside not to be counted on than as a catalyst to position around.
The things that will actually determine XRP’s path are observable and concrete: whether the CLARITY Act passes and writes XRP’s commodity status into federal law, whether spot ETF flows compound or trickle, whether the network’s settlement usage grows enough to translate into real token demand against the escrow supply, and where Bitcoin drags the broader market. Those are the signals worth watching, and the IPO hint is not among them. This does not mean the remark is meaningless. It reveals something real about Ripple’s posture toward its community, a willingness to at least entertain the idea of connecting corporate success to holders, which is more than many companies would offer.
But revealing a posture is not the same as making a commitment, and the most useful thing a holder can do is to enjoy the signal for what it shows about Ripple’s attitude while declining to build any expectation on top of it. The community heard a promise. What Garlinghouse offered was a maybe, and in investing the difference is everything. An XRP holder is better served by evaluating the token on its actual merits, its use in payments, its regulatory position, its adoption, and its supply dynamics, than by speculating about an IPO reward that exists only as a hedged possibility.
That possibility is attached to an IPO that may never come, and that could, in some scenarios, hurt the token as much as help it. The hope is understandable. The discipline is to keep it in proportion. If Ripple ever announces a real program, holders can judge the terms then; until then, the “special arrangement” is a signal, not a strategy.
Frequently asked questions Did Ripple promise XRP holders a payout from its IPO? No. Ripple chief executive Brad Garlinghouse said that “if and when” Ripple goes public, the company might do “something special” for XRP holders, then immediately added that it was “not in the immediate term.” That was a hedged “maybe” offered in response to a direct question, not a plan, a program, or a commitment, and he declined to endorse any specific mechanism such as a token buyback. The community amplified the remark into something close to a promise, but no payout has been announced, no mechanism has been described, and the comment was explicitly conditional on an IPO that Garlinghouse describes as not a priority.
Does holding XRP give me any ownership of Ripple? No. Ripple and XRP are legally and financially separate assets. Ripple is a private technology company that builds payment and liquidity products, some of which use the XRP Ledger. XRP is the native cryptocurrency of the XRP Ledger, a decentralized blockchain that Ripple does not control. Holding XRP grants no shares in Ripple, no dividends, no voting rights, and no claim on the company’s profits or assets.
What could a “special arrangement” actually look like? The mechanisms the community imagines include preferential access to Ripple IPO shares for verified long-term XRP holders, long-term holding rewards for those who keep XRP for a defined period, and tokenized Ripple equity made available to eligible holders. All of these are unannounced and remain speculation instead of anything Ripple has offered. Each also faces serious obstacles, especially securities law, because linking token holding to equity benefits raises exactly the questions Ripple fought during its long legal battle over XRP. More modest possibilities, such as a governance gesture or simply structuring the business so more value flows through XRP, are more realistic than a direct equity windfall.
Is Ripple actually going to have an IPO? It is uncertain, and Garlinghouse has repeatedly described going public as not a priority. He has cited the weak post-listing performance of crypto-company peers and reports of a major exchange delaying its own plans, and he has argued that staying private preserves flexibility. This matters because the entire holder-benefit question is downstream of an IPO happening at all. Even the most generous imaginable reward is irrelevant unless Ripple first decides to go public and then chooses to extend something to holders.
Could a Ripple IPO actually be bad for XRP? It could, and this is the part the bullish framing tends to skip. An IPO would give institutions a direct way to own Ripple through regulated stock that offers dividends, financial transparency, and ownership of company assets, potentially drawing capital that might otherwise have flowed into XRP as a proxy for Ripple. Separately, as a public company answerable to quarterly earnings expectations, Ripple could face stronger incentives to monetize its large XRP escrow holdings more aggressively, adding long-term selling pressure on the token. Going public is therefore a double-edged sword for XRP, with credible downside as well as the hoped-for upside, and holders should weigh both.
What should XRP holders actually focus on? On the observable catalysts that truly move the token instead of the IPO hint. Those include whether the CLARITY Act passes and codifies XRP’s commodity status, whether spot XRP ETF flows compound or stall, whether the network’s settlement usage grows into real token demand against the escrow supply, and the direction of Bitcoin and the broader market. The “special arrangement” remark is best treated as a small signal about Ripple’s posture toward its community, given minimal weight in any actual view of XRP’s prospects. Evaluating XRP on its real merits, utility, regulatory position, adoption, and supply, is far sounder than positioning around a hedged maybe.
This article is information, not investment advice. Prices, corporate plans, and statements reflect reporting available as of June 28, 2026, and can change quickly. Brad Garlinghouse’s comments were conditional and did not constitute a commitment or a program. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell XRP or any security. Verify current details from primary sources and consider your own circumstances before making any decision.
Recent days have seen both technical indicators and on chain data suggest that XRP could be poised for a recovery. As the price hovers near the critical 1.10 dollar resistance, the possibility of a rally stretching toward 1.30 dollars is back in the spotlight among investors.
Buy signals emerge on the daily chartMarket analyst Ali Martinez reports that two distinct bullish signals have appeared on XRP’s daily chart. According to Martinez, this development reflects a potential shift in momentum following a period of waning selling pressure, suggesting a possible turn to the upside.
Ali Martinez highlights that two strong buy signals have formed on XRP’s daily chart and notes that if the current momentum is maintained, the price could see room to move toward the 1.30 dollar level.
The first signal comes from the TD Sequential indicator, designed by Tom DeMark. The emergence of a “9” buy setup within this indicator is considered notable by investors who closely follow such formations to gauge when bearish trends may be losing strength.
Mini glossary: The TD Sequential is a technical indicator used to detect exhaustion points and potential reversals in price movements. The “9” setup is especially watched after extended declines to spot short term recovery opportunities.
In addition, the past three days’ candlestick structure has formed a Morning Star Doji pattern. Regarded as one of the reliable reversal formations in technical analysis, this pattern suggests that selling pressure is waning as buyers begin regaining balance. If trading volumes see a pronounced increase, the reversal signal could be confirmed even more strongly.
Resistance at 1.10 dollars and the 1.30 dollar targetFollowing its recent correction, XRP has also shaped a double bottom formation. This suggests that buyers have defended the same support region twice, making a bullish breakout a more probable scenario in the short run.
The nearest resistance lies at 1.10 dollars. Should XRP’s price establish itself above this level with conviction, the technical outlook for a reversal would become clearer and pave the way for a move toward 1.30 dollars.
Network data points to increased activityOn the on chain side, notable growth has also been recorded. The number of daily active addresses on XRP Ledger stood at about 23,000 on June 14, but this figure has since climbed toward 39,500 over the past two weeks. The XRP Ledger serves as the distributed infrastructure for all XRP transactions.
The rise in daily active addresses signals increased network participation and trading activity. Market participants closely monitor such data as it often points to strengthening demand and heightened investor interest.
According to CoinCodex data, XRP was trading at around 1.05 dollars at the time of reporting. Although this leaves the price just below the key resistance zone, the mix of positive technical signals and increased network activity suggests that bearish pressure may be subsiding for now.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
The past several months have not been kind to XRP. After it marked a new all-time high in mid-July 2025, it has been mostly downhill, losing over 70% of its value, dumping toward $1.00, being surpassed by BNB and USDC in terms of market cap, and registering six consecutive months in the red at one point.
Amid all of these adverse developments, some analysts have turned highly bearish on the asset. While the dominant belief is that XRP has reached its most crucial moment during this cycle, some, such as Ali Martinez, pointed to potential drops to the next crucial support levels at $0.80, $0.62, or $0.51 if the $1.00 floor gives in.
Glassnode warned that XRP token holders continue to realize more losses than profits, indicating intensifying selling pressure even among investors in the red. Even ChatGPT made some worrying predictions if the asset indeed flips $1.00 from support into resistance soon. But maybe such low sentiment is what is needed for XRP to turn things around.
Run Up Instead? Paradoxically, history shows that the markets rarely reward such consensus. In fact, Warren Buffett has said it best, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.”
Extreme pessimism has frequently appeared near important turning points across the crypto market. BTC, ETH, and XRP have all experienced periods where sentiment collapsed and remained there for a while before major recoveries began. This is generally possible when weak hands exited, and long-term investors quietly accumulated.
For XRP, this accumulation appears to be coming from ETF investors, as the funds tracking its performance have seen a green-only streak of eight consecutive weeks, while the BTC and ETH ETFs have bled out heavily.
The recent sell-off also pushed several on-chain and technical metrics into historically oversold territory. Some analysts argue that XRP may be approaching a zone where risk-reward begins to improve, even if short-term volatility persists.
You may also like: Ripple (XRP) Boosts Global Blockchain Adoption With Over $70M in Donations XRP’s Slide to Sub-$1.00 Could Set Up ‘Risk-Reward’ Zone: Analyst XRP Selling Pressure Intensifies as Profit-to-Loss Ratio Reaches Multi-Year Low History is indeed on XRP’s side. Recall that the asset’s sentiment had plunged to similar levels in mid-June but skyrocketed by double digits within 24 hours as the analytics company Santiment attributed that rally to the deteriorating investor behavior.
July Agrees Current data show that XRP is on track to close June with a decline of over 20%, its worst monthly performance since February 2025. Data from CryptoRank suggests that this aligns with previous performances, as June has been a predominantly bearish month for the asset.
On the contrary stands July. XRP has closed each of the past six editions in the green, showing some impressive gains. Five out of the six have seen double-digit price increases, including massive 45%+ pumps in 2020 and 2023. The median gain for July stands at close to 11%.
XRP is trading near $1.05 as buyers continue to defend the $1 level after a weak month.
Summary
XRP trades near $1.05 after falling sharply over the past week and month. ETF inflows remain positive while Bitcoin and Ethereum funds continue showing heavy weekly outflows. Analysts watch $1 support, rising active addresses, and possible rebound signals toward the $1.30 zone. The token is down more than 7% over the past week and about 19% over the past 30 days, while its 24-hour range sits between $1.04 and $1.07.
The price action remains weak, but several market signals show that XRP has not lost all support. ETF inflows remain positive, daily active addresses are rising, and some analysts now point to early reversal patterns on the daily chart.
XRP trades near $1 after sharp monthly decline XRP holds a market rank of #6, with market capitalization near $65.4 billion. Its 24-hour trading volume stands above $1.1 billion, showing that activity remains strong even as price stays near recent lows.
The token remains far below its all-time high of $3.65 from July 2025. It has also fallen more than 50% over the past year and about 49% over the past 200 days, showing that the current weakness is part of a longer downtrend.
A recent XRP price prediction noted that XRP is trading near a 20-month low. The same report said $1 has become the key level to watch, with downside support near $0.85 and $0.70 if that area fails.
That makes the current setup simple. XRP needs to hold $1 to avoid a deeper technical breakdown. A strong move above $1.12 and then $1.27 would be needed before traders can argue that momentum is shifting back toward buyers.
ETF demand stays positive despite weak price XRP fund flows continue to stand out against Bitcoin and Ethereum. On June 26, XRP ranked first in single-day net inflows at about $15.63 million, while spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $444.51 million in outflows and Ethereum funds lost about $12.85 million.
The weekly trend also remains positive. XRP spot ETFs have now posted seven straight green weeks, with roughly $144.69 million in net inflows over that stretch, according to SoSoValue data.
This is not the same pattern seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum. Over the same seven-week stretch, Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $7.73 billion in outflows, while Ethereum ETFs lost around $1.18 billion.
A previous fund flow report showed XRP products had already beaten Bitcoin and Ethereum for five straight weeks. Another CLARITY Act analysis said XRP ETFs had drawn roughly $1.44 billion in cumulative inflows through six weeks of buying, even as price remained weak.
That contrast is important for the current XRP price analysis. It suggests that fund demand has not been enough to lift the token yet, but it may be helping to slow deeper losses near $1.
On-chain activity and chart signals improve Analyst Ali Charts said XRP network activity has risen over the past two weeks. Daily active addresses climbed from about 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 39,500, pointing to higher on-chain participation.
Rising active addresses can show more users interacting with the network. It does not guarantee a price recovery, but it gives traders another data point at a time when price is testing a key support level.
Network activity on $XRP has surged over the past two weeks.
Daily active addresses have climbed from 23,000 on June 14 to nearly 39,500 today, signaling growing on-chain participation. pic.twitter.com/lqX9oo3AsS
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 28, 2026 Ali also pointed to two bullish reversal signals on the daily chart. He said the Tom DeMark Sequential indicator printed a “9” buy signal, which can sometimes appear before a short relief rebound lasting one to four daily candles.
He also said the past three daily sessions formed a Morning Star Doji pattern. That pattern is often used by technical traders to identify a local bottom after a downtrend.
XRP: TWO BULLISH SIGNALS
XRP is flashing two bullish reversal signals on the daily chart, pointing to a potential shift in momentum.
1. The Tom DeMark Sequential indicator has printed a buy signal via a "9" candlestick. This pattern historically anticipates a one-to-four daily… pic.twitter.com/q0qBDVCGXT
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 27, 2026 If buying volume rises from here, Ali said XRP could move toward $1.30. That level also lines up with earlier resistance areas from recent price action.
A prior XRP technical report said traders were watching $1.20 as a recovery level, with $1.24 and $1.30 as the next zones if buyers pushed through resistance.
Derivatives reset may shape the next move Acccording to CryptoOnchain, XRP derivatives have gone through a heavy deleveraging phase. Long liquidations jumped to nearly $3 million over the past week, up more than 800% from the prior month.
Open interest also fell from about $1.18 billion to roughly $1.04 billion. At the same time, funding rates turned deeply negative, showing that traders who were positioned for upside have been forced out.
XRP Leverage Flush, source: CryptoQuant analyst CryptoOnchain That type of reset can cut speculative excess from the market. It can also create conditions for a sharp move if short sellers become crowded and spot buyers remain steady.
The spot side looks calmer than futures. Binance reserves were nearly flat over the week, suggesting holders are not rushing to move XRP to exchanges for immediate sale.
The next signal will come from open interest and funding rates. If open interest starts to recover while price holds $1, traders may read it as a healthier reset. If XRP loses $1 with rising volume, the market may shift back toward $0.85 and $0.70 support.
Ripple’s wider ecosystem also remains in focus after RLUSD became available in Japan through SBI VC Trade. The stablecoin launch gives Ripple a new regulated channel in Asia, though XRP’s short-term direction still depends on price action, fund flows, and whether buyers can defend the $1 level.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
The CLARITY Act, currently under discussion in the United States, is gaining close attention in crypto markets due to its potential to deliver a much clearer regulatory framework for digital assets. Should the bill become law, many industry observers believe it could significantly reduce the legal uncertainty that has long deterred institutional investors from entering the space.
Why institutional capital is watching Market sources tracking industry data suggest that the CLARITY Act could be a game changer for the US crypto sector. According to this perspective, the bill may eliminate one of the major regulatory hurdles preventing American pension funds—which collectively manage around $56 trillion in assets—from accessing digital assets. These funds typically avoid assets without clear legal status due to strict compliance obligations.
At the heart of the debate lies the question of whether digital assets should be classified as securities or commodities. This lack of clarity keeps institutions from allocating capital to cryptos like XRP, presenting both legal and custodial challenges for major investors.
Glossary: The CLARITY Act is a legislative proposal in the US aiming to clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets. Its main purpose is to define which assets will be treated as securities and which as commodities, easing the compliance burden for market participants.
If the CLARITY Act takes effect, analysts believe it could establish a comprehensive framework for digital assets and bolster the standing of assets such as XRP among institutional investors.
Liquidity squeezes move into focus One notable aspect for XRP is that not all of its circulating supply is actively traded. Although the total supply is high, only a limited fraction is exchanged on markets. A substantial portion remains in the hands of long-term holders, is stored in institutional wallets, or is locked in escrow accounts, narrowing the readily accessible supply for trading.
This limited tradable supply means that even a modest influx of institutional capital into XRP, spurred by regulatory clarity, could rapidly tighten available liquidity. Market observers note that if demand outstrips accessible supply, upward price pressure could escalate swiftly.
Despite XRP’s large total supply, the actively traded amount remains restricted, so any surge in institutional demand could sharply reduce liquidity in the short term.
Time pressure mounts in Washington Meanwhile, reports indicate Congress is picking up the pace on the bill. Republican lawmakers are pushing to advance the CLARITY Act before the August recess, driven by a crowded legislative calendar that leaves little room for delay.
Once senators return to work on July 13, Congress will have only about 20 working days to deliberate, vote on the bill, and come to an agreement with the House of Representatives on the final version. This tight window is putting additional pressure on lawmakers to give the bill the necessary attention.
Within the digital asset industry, the CLARITY Act is viewed as one of the most significant regulatory moves in the US in recent years. Its passage could unlock far broader institutional participation—and with it, the prospect of reducing the legal fog that has hovered over the market, potentially making XRP a standout asset in the coming period.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
As of June 28, the XRP price hovers near $1.05, with technical indicators suggesting that the downtrend has not yet fully reversed. While there are some early signs that selling pressure may be easing in the short run, caution remains the dominant attitude in the broader market outlook.
Sustained pressure in the weekly outlookMarket analyst ChartNerdTA published a chart on June 28 showing that XRP has now fallen below an ascending support line it had preserved for several months. This breakdown followed the failure to reclaim the 20-week exponential moving average, which sits around the $1.57 mark on the weekly chart.
In addition, XRP remains well below its 50-week exponential moving average at $1.83, underscoring that downward pressure on the primary trend remains unresolved. The analyst highlights that the weekly Stochastic RSI has flashed a bearish crossover for the third time since XRP hit its all-time high in July 2025.
ChartNerdTA emphasizes that this is not the right time to enter trades, pointing out that price structure has yet to show clear signs of renewed strength.
In the analyst’s review back in May, the same ascending support line held firm for over three months. Its recent break has now invalidated that technical formation, and persistent weakness above the $1.50 region has become even more apparent with this shift.
On-chain data highlights $1.06 as key levelDespite a weakening technical picture, on-chain data points to several price zones where buyers have historically concentrated. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez, referencing Glassnode’s UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) charts, identifies $1.06 as the most important near-term support.
Mini glossary: URPD is an on-chain distribution metric that shows how much of an asset has changed hands within specific price ranges. This indicator is used to identify key support and resistance zones by mapping where investors have the highest cost concentration.
At the $1.06 mark, more than 830 million XRP have previously been traded. Should selling deepen, the data reveals notable clusters of activity at $0.80, $0.62, and $0.51 as well. In these areas, approximately 923 million, 1.16 billion, and 1.06 billion XRP respectively have been accumulated.
LevelPast Accumulation$1.06Over 830 million XRP$0.80About 923 million XRP$0.62About 1.16 billion XRP$0.51About 1.06 billion XRPAli Martinez notes that the $1.06 zone is the most crucial defense in the short term and warns that any drop below this level could shift focus to the $0.80 area as the next key support.
Short term indicators send mixed signalsAs per Bitstamp’s data, XRP is trading near $1.05 and has shown only a minor intraday increase. Technical tools on TradingView reveal that, while oscillators suggest a search for balance, trend-following indicators continue to reflect a weak profile.
The 14-day RSI measures 32.41, approaching oversold territory. Stochastic %K stands at 13.84, while the 20-period CCI reads minus 127.34. Momentum and Williams %R at minus 85.73 further suggest that selling could soon slow, yet the MACD for 12 and 26 periods remains negative at minus 0.0515.
Moving averages support the bearish caseWithin this wider technical framework, most moving averages continue to flash a sell signal. The 10-period averages are in the $1.08 to $1.09 range, while the 50, 100, and 200-period averages sit between approximately $1.21 and $1.53, all reinforcing the downward bias.
A notable exception comes from the Hull Moving Average at around $1.025, which provides a buy signal, while the Ichimoku base line remains neutral. Overall, moving averages indicate roughly 13 sell signals, 1 neutral, and just 1 buy signal. In pivot point analysis, the classic pivot stands at $1.38, with the next major resistance at $1.50, and key support zones at $1.10 and $0.81.
Although a short-term reaction rally cannot be ruled out completely, XRP needs to hold the $1.06 support zone and reclaim higher resistance levels to regain momentum. Otherwise, market attention may rapidly shift towards the $0.80 demand area as the next battle line.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Due to the high levels of leverage that remain in the market, the recent decline in the value of Ripple [XRP] has resulted in a large-scale derivatives reset. At its peak during this period, nearly $3 million in long positions were liquidated, forcing bullish traders out of their exposure.
Moreover, Funding Rates have turned sharply negative, reflecting strong bearish conviction about XRP’s future price action. Additionally, the Open Interest (OI) dropped from approximately $1.18 billion to approximately $1.04 billion.
These factors indicate that the removal of leverage-driven selling pressure by speculative excess is beginning. Although the stable Binance reserves show that spot holders are still unwilling to sell aggressively.
Source: CryptoQuant If OI begins to rebuild along with the improving funding rate, then XRP may begin to trend upward towards a healthier recovery. However, if these trends do not start occurring simultaneously, then bearish momentum will likely continue.
XRP enters a historically oversold zone As long-term declines continue for XRP, it is possible for the overall market to enter historically extreme downside risk conditions as sellers continue to outpace buyers.
Additionally, the prolonged decline has caused the Sharpe Z-Score to drop deeper into negative territory. These levels mirror the extreme reading before the November 2024 breakout and the July 2025 rally.
Source: CryptoQuant Even so, XRP remains near $1.03, well below its 200-day Moving Average, confirming buyers have not yet regained control of the broader trend. This combination suggests downside momentum may be becoming exhausted rather than accelerating further.
If fresh spot demand returns and price reclaims key technical levels, the current reset could evolve into another recovery phase. Otherwise, XRP may continue consolidating until stronger buying confirms the historical signal.
Final Summary XRP deleveraging is reducing speculative excess, but stronger spot demand remains essential for a sustained recovery. XRP’s historical oversold signals suggested that a downside was stretched, yet bullish confirmation still depends on renewed buying pressure.
Crypto Market Crashing Amid Rotation to StocksA key driver behind the accelerating weakness in the crypto market is that investors in major economies such as the United States, South Korea, and Japan are rotating into equities, as stock markets surge amid the ongoing AI supercycle.
Digital Asset Treasury Companies WoesInvestors now fear that these companies will be forced to start selling their crypto assets to fund their dividends this year. If this happens, there is a risk that cryptocurrencies will continue falling as the biggest buyers become sellers.
Crypto Confidence Waning Amid Hackings and FraudThe crypto market crash is also happening because of the lack of confidence in the industry. These fears escalated on October 10 last year when the crypto industry suffered over $18 billion in liquidation losses. 1.6 million traders were liquidated.
At the same time, fraud and pump-and-dump schemes have been on an upward trajectory. A good example of this is President Donald Trump’s decision to launch the a meme coin in January last year. After initially pumping, the token crashed, erasing billions of dollars in value.
Other recent examples of pumps and dumps are coins like Humanity Protocol, Audiera, and SKYIE.
Data shows that crypto hackings have soared this year. According to DeFi Llama, hackings have jumped to over $1.4 billion in the last 12 months. This includes popular networks like Polymarket, Drift Trade, Balancer, and Upbit.
Image: Shutterstock
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This week in the cryptocurrency world was a rollercoaster ride, with Bitcoin showing signs of capitulation and gold’s selloff being framed as a buying opportunity. Meanwhile, 21Shares predicts a return to $100,000 for Bitcoin, Ethereum faces a potential funding gap and former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo urges Congress to pass a crypto bill.
Let’s dive into the details.
‘Bitcoin Is Dead’ Predictions GrowBitcoin’s latest dip below $60,000 has reignited the “Bitcoin is dead” narrative. However, Ryan Rasmussen from Bitwise suggests that long-term investors are using this downturn to accumulate more. He pointed out that such moments have historically coincided with major cycle lows
Read the full article here.
Peter Schiff Says Gold’s Selloff Is A Buying OpportunityEconomist Peter Schiff views gold’s recent selloff as a buying opportunity, while he describes Bitcoin’s decline as a deflating bubble. Schiff noted that Bitcoin failed to rise with gold’s earlier gains and is now declining in tandem, contrary to expectations.
Read the full article here.
BTC Will Return To $100,000 Even If Bitcoin ETFs Are Growing Slower21Shares’ mid-year check-in report suggests that the cryptocurrency market has transitioned from a speculative phase to an institutionally driven asset class. The report also highlights stablecoins and tokenization as the sector’s strongest long-term themes.
Read the full article here.
Ethereum Could Face A Critical Funding GapFormer Ethereum Foundation member Trent Van Epps warns that Ethereum could face a critical funding gap within the next 3 to 9 months. The Foundation’s treasury, which has funded critical shared resources, is shrinking by design.
Read the full article here.
Andrew Cuomo Urges Congress To Pass Crypto BillFormer New York Governor Andrew Cuomo has called on Congress to pass the Clarity Act, emphasizing blockchain’s potential to bring financial inclusion to the unbanked and underserved. Cuomo believes that the adoption of blockchain technology could significantly reduce consumer costs.
Read the full article here.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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ETH was stopped at a crucial resistance once again and the massive sell-offs from ETF investors and whales could spell further trouble.
Ethereum continues to trade under severe pressure, although it managed to recover around around 5% from its recent multi-year low at just over $1,500.
The threat remains since many of the major investors in its ecosystem continue to offload. The only positive change in the past few weeks has been the return of SharpLink.
Whales Dump Data shared by popular analyst Ali Martinez shows that these large market participants have disposed of $880 million worth of the largest altcoin in the span of just one week. From an Ethereum perspective, this means a massive dump of 550,000 ETH, which, according to him, means a substantial $880 million injection in “sell-side supply into the market.”
He added that this heavy selling volume is among the reasons behind the asset’s drop below its first immediate support at $1,633. The other could be the behavior of ETF investors. As reported earlier this weekend, those gaining exposure to Ethereum through the exchange-traded funds sold over $270 million during the week, as ETH dropped toward $1,500 for the first time in over a year.
Citing URPD data, Martinez outlined the significance of the $1,583 level as a critical volume support. If ETH breaks below it, it would open a “clear path for extended liquidations.” He doubled down that Ethereum’s asset risks falling to a new cycle low of somewhere between $1,237 and $1,089.
ETH WHALES SELL $880 MILLION IN ONE WEEK
Large-scale holders have offloaded roughly 550,000 ETH over the past week, injecting $880 million in sell-side supply into the market.
This heavy selling volume has successfully pushed Ethereum below its immediate $1,633 support floor.… https://t.co/2n4rVK4oTK pic.twitter.com/7g1zSPepez
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 28, 2026
Fellow analyst Ted Pillows commented that ETH remains stuck between key support (at $1,500) and resistance (at $1,700). A breakout above the latter would be “what bulls need,” while a potential decisive drop below $1,500 is “what bears are pushing for a new cycle low.”
You may also like: Bitcoin (BTC) Dips Below $62K, Ethereum (ETH) Plunges 6% Daily: Market Watch 5 Reasons Why Bitcoin Just Crashed Below $63K as Liquidations Top $500M Bitmine Buys 52K ETH as Tom Lee Believes the Best Years for Crypto Are Still Ahead Who Is Buying On the flipside, the two largest corporate holders of Ethereum are accumulating. While this is not really a surprise for Bitmine, which has been buying consistently even through the bear market, the return of SharpLink made the headlines over the week.
The Joe Lubin-chaired firm made its first ETH buy in eight months on Friday and has only doubled down since then. Lookonchain noted earlier today that the company accumulated another 29,196 ETH for $46.7 million. Thus, it has acquired over $62 million worth of ETH in the past three days alone.
Ethereum is trading near the $1,570 to $1,580 area after a calm weekend that failed to ease the pressure on the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Summary
Ethereum trades near $1,570 as ETF outflows and whale selling pressure keep buyers cautious. Analysts see $1,583 as a key support level after whales sold 550,000 ETH this week. A clean move above $1,800 could ease pressure, while losing $1,583 may deepen losses. The price has stayed mostly range-bound, even as new tension in the Middle East tested risk appetite across global markets.
The calm move does not mean the market has turned strong. ETH remains below the $1,800 level that many traders see as a key recovery zone. The asset is also under pressure from ETF outflows, whale selling, and weak spot demand.
ETF outflows weigh on Ethereum sentiment U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded their seventh straight day of outflows on June 26, according to SoSoValue data. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $445 million in net outflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs posted $12.848 million in net outflows.
Ethereum spot ETF net inflow, source: SoSoValue The Ethereum outflow was smaller than Bitcoin’s, but the streak matters because ETFs can act as a source of steady spot demand. When flows stay negative for several days, that support weakens. This can make it harder for ETH to recover when traders are already cautious.
Earlier Ethereum ETF coverage showed that ETH had already been testing major support as fund withdrawals mounted. That pressure has continued into late June, keeping the market focused on whether institutional demand can return.
Another price analysis noted that ETH traded near $1,600 even after BitMine reportedly bought another 75,000 ETH. That showed that large purchases have not been enough to reverse the wider downtrend.
Whales sell into weak support Analyst Ali Martinez said large holders sold about 550,000 ETH over the past week. At current prices, that sale equals roughly $880 million in fresh supply hitting the market.
The analyst said this selling helped push Ethereum below its immediate $1,633 support level. ETH is now testing volume support near $1,583, a level traders are watching closely because a clean break could open the way for deeper losses.
ETH WHALES SELL $880 MILLION IN ONE WEEK
Large-scale holders have offloaded roughly 550,000 ETH over the past week, injecting $880 million in sell-side supply into the market.
This heavy selling volume has successfully pushed Ethereum below its immediate $1,633 support floor.… https://t.co/2n4rVK4oTK pic.twitter.com/7g1zSPepez
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) June 28, 2026 Ali said if selling continues into next week, the next high-volume demand areas could sit near $1,237 and $1,089. These levels are not guaranteed targets, but they show where past trading activity may attract buyers if ETH breaks lower.
This pressure matches the current chart structure. ETH continues to print lower highs, and buyers have not yet shown enough strength to reclaim the $1,800 area.
Analysts split on ETH’s next move Money Ape warned that Ethereum could post three straight red quarters for the first time. The analyst said ETH may fall below $1,000 if market confidence keeps weakening.
That view reflects the bearish side of the current setup. Ethereum has failed to recover quickly from its slide, and traders remain worried about ETF outflows, whale activity, and weak momentum.
🚨 ETHEREUM IN TROUBLE 🚨
For the first time ever, Ethereum is on track to post three consecutive red quarters.
We could see $ETH under $1,000.
Has the market completely lost confidence in $ETH? pic.twitter.com/jEN7CzJg8L
— Money Ape (@TheMoneyApe) June 28, 2026 Michaël van de Poppe offered a different view. He said anything below $1,800 is not attractive for day trading but may be a strong opportunity for longer-term accumulation.
He also said ETH may be forming a bullish divergence across several timeframes. In his view, a clear break above $1,800 would be more useful than trying to catch every small move inside the current downtrend.
Van de Poppe also pointed to lower levels near $1,505 and $1,385 as possible buying zones if ETH sweeps liquidity. He said he doubts the market is eager to move much lower, but he still wants to see a clean recovery above $1,800.
Derivatives data shows sellers still in control CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA said Ethereum’s taker buy/sell ratio on Binance remains above 1. That usually points to stronger buying activity, but ETH has not reacted with a strong recovery.
The analyst said this muted response suggests larger sellers may be absorbing buy orders. In simple terms, buyers are active, but they are not strong enough to push the price higher.
Source: CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA The same report said Ethereum’s fund price has been falling since April. That suggests traders are reducing long exposure in derivatives markets and taking less risk.
This creates a weak setup for ETH. Even when buying activity rises, price action remains soft. That can happen when whales use short rallies to sell into demand.
The analyst said ETH still forms lower highs while fresh lows keep developing. That confirms the broader bearish structure remains in place until Ethereum breaks its current downtrend.
Ethereum price outlook Ethereum’s near-term outlook now depends on the $1,583 support area. If buyers defend this zone, ETH could attempt another move toward $1,633 and then $1,800.
A clean break above $1,800 would be the first stronger sign that bulls are regaining control. It could also shift attention back toward higher resistance zones after weeks of weak trading.
If ETH loses $1,583, traders may look toward $1,505 and $1,385. A deeper sell-off could bring the $1,237 and $1,089 demand zones into focus if whale selling continues.
For now, Ethereum is stable but not strong. The price is calm near $1,570, yet ETF outflows, whale distribution, and weak derivatives demand keep the risk tilted toward another test of lower support.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Ethereum is currently trading around $1,576, as it retests a demand zone that previously marked a major market bottom, according to weekly chart analyses. Recent technical charts shared by analysts show that the price has fallen back toward a support region similar to the one seen at the lows of 2022.
Key demand zone identified on weekly chartA weekly Ethereum chart based on TradingView data from Kamran Asghar compares the current pullback to the market bottom formed in 2022. According to the analysis, ETH has once again returned to its underlying support band. If this area holds, there is potential for a rebound, mirroring previous market behavior.
The chart also shows that Ethereum’s price remains below the blue moving average, which is currently situated around $2,498. This level stands out as a major resistance area should a recovery take place. A move back above this moving average would strengthen the case for a technical reversal.
Kamran Asghar’s chart suggests the current region could act as a long-term reaction zone, yet the technical outlook does not point to a confirmed reversal at this stage.
The relative strength index (RSI) has also dropped near the 30 mark, indicating heightened selling pressure. However, the RSI signal alone does not confirm the establishment of a bottom. A definitive sign of strengthening technicals would be a clear price recovery emerging from the demand zone.
In the short term, the $1,500 to $1,600 range is highlighted as a critical support area. If this zone is held, buyers could attempt to drive the price toward higher resistance levels. Conversely, a break below the support band would weaken the optimistic scenario.
Monthly chart signals $1,368 as critical levelAccording to a monthly chart prepared by CJ using TradingView data, Ethereum has continued to trend lower after failing to sustain higher prices in 2025 and 2026. The analyst identifies the equally matched lows around $1,368 as the next significant level for price action to test.
IndicatorLevelCurrent price$1,572 to $1,576Nearby support$1,500 to $1,600Critical monthly level$1,368Moving average resistance$2,498Lower support$881A possible pullback to $1,368 would take Ethereum back to a support zone that has provided a floor several times since 2022. If buyers defend this region, the price could again attempt a reaction from the lower boundary of its multi-year range.
CJ emphasizes $1,368 as the first critical threshold, noting that a drop below this level could shift focus to even lower supports dating back to 2021.
Beneath this, the 2021 cycle’s low point stands at $881. If Ethereum loses its equal lows on the monthly chart and selling pressure persists, this area could become increasingly important. The monthly RSI sits near 40, suggesting weak momentum, but not yet an extreme oversold condition.
Overall, Ethereum’s technical outlook signals critical support and resistance levels to watch in both the short and medium term. Whether the current demand zone holds will likely dictate the next significant move in price action. Analysts advise monitoring these key thresholds as Ethereum attempts to break out of its recent cycle of declines.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Ethereum remains under pressure across higher timeframes, but the latest price action is showing early signs that bearish momentum may be losing strength. While the broader trend remains decisively bearish, the recent movements suggest that sellers may be approaching exhaustion after weeks of sustained downside.
Ethereum Price Analysis: The Daily Chart ETH’s recent rejection from the $1.72K-$1.78K supply zone triggered another leg lower, pushing it back into the critical $1.46K-$1.53K demand region. This zone has acted as support multiple times throughout June and continues to attract buyers whenever the price approaches it.
The most notable development on the daily timeframe is the emerging bullish divergence on the RSI. While the asset has continued making lower lows during June, the RSI has been forming higher lows near oversold territory. This divergence suggests that downside momentum is weakening despite ETH remaining near cycle lows.
Although a bullish divergence alone does not guarantee a reversal, it often appears during the latter stages of bearish trends and can serve as an early warning that sellers are losing control. As long as ETH holds above the $1.46K-$1.53K support area, the divergence remains valid, increasing the probability of a relief rally.
However, confirmation would require a break above the nearest resistance zones, particularly the $1.72K-$1.78K supply area. Until then, the broader trend remains bearish despite the improving momentum profile.
ETH/USDT 4-Hour Chart On the 4-hour timeframe, Ethereum has spent the past several sessions consolidating above the lower demand zone after the sharp sell-off from resistance.
A descending trendline has capped every recovery attempt since the June 22 rejection. However, the asset is now compressing directly beneath that trendline, while volatility continues to contract. This setup creates the possibility of a short-term breakout if buyers can push through trendline resistance.
A successful breakout would likely target the $1.72K-$1.78K supply zone, which served as the origin of the latest decline. Such a move would align well with the bullish RSI divergence visible on the daily chart and could provide the first meaningful recovery rally in several weeks.
On the downside, the $1.52K area remains the key level to monitor. Losing this support would invalidate the short-term bullish scenario and shift focus back toward deeper downside continuation within the broader downtrend.
For now, Ethereum appears trapped between support and descending resistance, with the next directional move likely determined by whichever side breaks first.
Sentiment Analysis The liquidation heatmap reveals an interesting shift in liquidity positioning.
While liquidity remains concentrated above the current price, particularly between roughly $1.68K and $1.80K, Ethereum is currently trading beneath these large clusters. Markets often gravitate toward areas with substantial leveraged positioning, making those overhead liquidity pools attractive short-term targets.
This creates a scenario where ETH could stage an upside liquidity sweep before any larger directional move develops. A breakout above the 4-hour descending trendline would increase the probability of price moving into these overhead liquidity pockets, triggering short liquidations and fueling a squeeze toward the $1.7K-$1.8K region.
At the same time, the heatmap also shows notable liquidity beneath the market around the lower support region, meaning both sides of the range remain vulnerable to liquidation-driven volatility.
Combined with the bullish daily RSI divergence and the compression beneath 4-hour trendline resistance, the current setup suggests Ethereum may first attempt an upside liquidity grab before the market determines whether a more sustainable recovery can develop. The reaction around the $1.72K-$1.80K liquidity cluster will likely provide important clues regarding Ethereum’s next major trend.
The crypto market slipped 0.83% to $2.07 trillion as selling pressure returned across major assets. Bitcoin hovered below $60,000, while Ethereum traded near $1,557 after large holders increased selling.
XRP price held around $1.05, supported by stronger ETF demand. Fresh flow data showed XRP ETF products gaining inflows, while Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs continued to lose capital during a weak market session on June 26.
XRP ETF Inflows Outpace Bitcoin and Ethereum Funds The positive bright spot for U.S. spot crypto funds was XRP ETF products. XRP tokens attracted more interest from investors, with bigger holdings seeing redemptions.
The total daily net inflows for U.S.-listed XRP spot ETFs reached $15.63 million on June 26. This added to the already existing net inflows of $1.47 billion into all XRP ETFs.
XRP’s monthly performance was also positive. Over 30 days, XRP funds added $60.61 million in net inflows. This was in contrast to Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which both saw monthly outflows.
Source: Sosovalue data Bitwise’s XRP fund led the daily inflow table. The fund attracted $11.66 million and held $293.49 million in net assets. Next came Franklin’s XRPZ, which had $3.97 million in inflows and $235.20 million in assets.
Canary’s XRPC was also a significant investor with $234.97 million in assets. Grayscale’s GXRP was valued at $57.60, whereas 21Shares’ TOXR was still in the red on a cumulative basis.
But XRP remains far behind the bigger ETF markets in terms of trading volume. Over all, the value traded in XRP spot ETFs totaled $22.04 million. Net assets stood at $934.26 million, equal to 1.44% of XRP’s market capitalization.
Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs Extend Seven-Day Outflow Streak Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs continued to struggle, with investors withdrawing from leading funds. According to SoSoValue, both categories posted a seventh straight day of net outflows on June 26.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced daily net outflows of $444.51 million from the U.S. market. Investors pulled $4.41 billion out of Bitcoin funds during the 31-day period. Net inflows were still high over the 12-month period, however, at $51.61 billion.
U.S. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs See Seventh Straight Day of Outflows
According to SoSoValue, on June 26 (ET), U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs both recorded their seventh consecutive day of net outflows. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a total net outflow of $445 million, while… pic.twitter.com/vm3nFGOnUQ
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 27, 2026
For the whole day, all of the money flowed out of BlackRock’s IBIT. However, IBIT was the top Bitcoin ETF by assets. The fund has $44.42 billion in net assets and $60.77 billion in cumulative inflows.
Fidelity’s FBTC trailed with $10.44 billion in assets. The Grayscale GBTC was down overall with $27.14 billion of cumulative outflows. But there was no net redemptions in the day for GBTC.
Ethereum ETFs experienced less demand, but losses were not as severe as Bitcoin’s. Daily outflows of spot Ethereum ETFs hit $12.85 million in the U.S. Ethereum has lost more than $610.61 million over the course of 30 days.
BlackRock’s ETHA continued to be the biggest Ethereum fund. It had $4.27 billion in net assets and $11.08 billion in cumulative inflows. Grayscale’s ETHE continued to stay in the red by recording an outflow of $5.33 billion in cumulative outflows.
Bitcoin Still Leads Assets as XRP Gains Fresh Investor Demand XRP is currently the leader in the short-term flow race, whereas Bitcoin has the crown in size. The net assets of U.S. Bitcoin ETFs totaled $72.82 billion. They traded a total of $2.54 billion, which is significantly higher than XRP’s day-to-day activity.
The net assets of Ethereum ETFs totaled $8.38 billion. This was 4.42% of Ethereum’s total market capitalization. Bitcoin ETF assets equaled 6.08% of Bitcoin’s market value.
The new figures reveal a stark difference in investor action. Bitcoin and Ethereum funds are seeing withdrawals, and XRP ETF products are gaining new demand. Nevertheless, Bitcoin is the biggest and most flow market for ETFs.
Near term, traders are watching Bitcoin’s $58,000 support level. Failure to move below this zone will give room for the price to move to $54,000. Any recovery above $61,800 could help ease overall crypto ETF sentiment.
The decentralized finance (DeFi) and blockchain sector has witnessed a considerable drop in developer activity over the past week. However, despite decline, Ethereum, BNB Chain, and Polygon are still the top blockchains. As per the data from Santiment, the other prominent blockchains based on developer activity include Solana, Arbitrum, Optimism, Cosmos, Avalanche, Harmony, and Cardano. The data highlights that the DeFi landscape is consistently grappling with minimized developer participation amid decreased investor confidence.
Ethereum Dominates with 6.1K Events and 25 Contributing Developers Ethereum is the leading player when it comes to weekly developer activity. Over the past 7 days, Ethereum witnessed 6.1K developer activity events, showing a 52.61% dip. Additionally, 25 developers took part in these events, highlighting a 96.46% drop. Along with that, BNB Chain has become the 2nd notable blockchain, with a total of 2.7K developer activity events, expressing an 18.02% plunge. Particularly, 9 developers were a part of the respective events, presenting a 97.47% slump.
Coming after that, Polygon has become the 3rd top blockchain when it comes to developer activity. Specifically, it saw 2.2K developer activity events, indicating a 22.84% weekly decrease. At the same time, 5 developers participated in the respective events, expressing a 98.26% drop. Additionally, Solana’s 2K events accounted for an 8.79% decline, while 6 developers contributed to the events, signifying a 97.44% reduction.
Moving on, Arbitrum’s 1.8K weekly developer activity events denote a 16.84% decrease, while the number of developers participating in them was 5, underscoring a 98.01% decline. Additionally, Optimism recorded 1.7K events and 4 developers, displaying 14.22% and 98.33% slumps. Then comes Cosmos, with 1.7K events and just 2 developers, revealing 19.12% and 98.9% drops.
Harmony Bottoms List with 1.4K Events and 5 Developers According to Santiment, Avalanche is the 8th top blockchain based on weekly developer activity, with 1.5K events as well as 5 developers. These figures account for 15.79% and 97.58% dips. Additionally, Cardano’s 1.4K events and 3 developers contributing to them show 16.52% and 98.29% decreases. Ultimately, Harmony is the last among the leading blockchains of the week, with its 1.4K events and 5 developers expressing 19.71% and 97.14% drops.
AUTHOR
Umair Younas is a cryptocurrency-related content writer linked with this work since 2019. Here, at Blockchainreporter, he serves as a news and article writer. He is a crypto, blockchain, NFTs, DeFi, and FinTech enthusiast. He has strong command over writing authentic reviews about brokers and exchanges and he has collaborated with our education team to write educational content as well. He has a dream to raise awareness among people about digital currencies. His works are well-researched and brimmed with information hence they provide fresh insights. Stay tuned to his posts if you want to stay up-to-date with the crypto-verse.
The cryptocurrency market is enduring one of its sharpest broad-based pullbacks of 2026, with blue-chip assets @dogecoin $DOGE, @Ripple $XRP, and @Ethereum $ETH taking the heaviest hits among large-cap tokens over the past seven days.
@dogecoin $DOGE has fallen 12% on the week, while both @Ripple $XRP and @Ethereum $ETH have shed roughly 9% over the same period. At the time of writing, not a single asset in the CoinMarketCap top 30 had recorded positive price action in the past seven days, an unusually uniform sign of bearish pressure across the market.
A Market-Wide Rout The scale of the decline reflects more than routine volatility. Bitcoin slid toward $62,000 amid a broad sell-off in technology and semiconductor stocks, extending its weekly losses and pressuring risk assets globally. Crypto markets fell across major tokens while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged a record 30-day net outflow of more than $6 billion, signaling sustained institutional de-risking.
Leading cryptocurrencies cracked alongside stocks after a sharp decline in chip-related shares cast doubt on the sustainability of the AI rally. Bitcoin dropped below $62,000 amid heavy selling, while Ethereum bulls failed to defend support at $1,700. XRP and Dogecoin recorded sharp declines as well, with over $560 million liquidated from the cryptocurrency market in a single 24-hour window, according to Coinglass data.
For $XRP, the slump threatened to push the digital asset under $1 for the first time since shortly after President Donald Trump's 2024 reelection win. For $DOGE, the fall thrust the first meme coin to its lowest levels since late 2023.
Macro Pressure and Weak Sentiment "Extreme Fear" sentiment intensified, returning to levels seen earlier this month, according to the Crypto Fear and Greed Index. The pullback is primarily driven by Bitcoin-led selling amplified by derivatives liquidations. Traders are also contending with a mix of ETF outflows, weak risk sentiment, and rising debate over whether the massive SpaceX IPO demand is pulling liquidity away from crypto markets.
The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF saw $239.30 million in net outflows and the Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund shed $120.80 million in a single session. Around $86.10 million also flowed out of the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF.
"Days like today are undoubtedly painful," said Juan Leon, senior investment strategist at crypto asset manager Bitwise. Leon noted that pronounced drawdowns in crypto prices have felt thesis-breaking in the moment, but the technology continues to be adopted as a modern form of market plumbing.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.
Sources:
CoinDesk: Bitcoin drops toward $62,000 as chip selloff deepens
Yahoo Finance: Bitcoin sell-off drags Ethereum, XRP and Dogecoin lower
Benzinga: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Dogecoin drop amid global chip sell-off
Cover image via U.Today Disclaimer: The opinions expressed by our writers are their own and do not represent the views of U.Today. The financial and market information provided on U.Today is intended for informational purposes only. U.Today is not liable for any financial losses incurred while trading cryptocurrencies. Conduct your own research by contacting financial experts before making any investment decisions. We believe that all content is accurate as of the date of publication, but certain offers mentioned may no longer be available.
Dog-themed cryptocurrency, Dogecoin has seen its open interest drop in a slow weekend trade.
According to Coinglass data, Dogecoin open interest fell 2.4% in the last 24 hours to $959 million even as the market saw a fresh selloff early Sunday.
This follows as digital assets extended an earlier sell-off from the past week, owing to investors favoring stocks tied to the artificial intelligence boom.
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Most crypto assets, including Dogecoin, traded in the red at press time, with a total of $141 million in liquidations. At the time of writing, Dogecoin was down 2.20% in the last 24 hours to $0.073 and down 12% weekly.
Crypto continues to be under pressure from spot ETF outflows and a hawkish Federal Reserve, despite equities reaching fresh highs.
Is there hope for recovery?Dogecoin fell to a low of $0.071 on June 23, its lowest point since November 2023. The dog cryptocurrency is down nearly 27% in the month of June so far, rounding off a bearish quarter for the broader crypto market. This weekend marks the end of a weak first half, with just two days to go.
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Traders will watch into the third quarter for a potential reversal or whether the weakness that has run through previous quarters carries into the third.
Dogecoin has steadily declined since the year's start as the crypto market bear market lingers, only marking one green month in 2026 so far. The drop has pushed Dogecoin momentum indicators below oversold levels. The daily RSI has fallen below oversold levels of 30, now at 24.
The market often rebounds when the RSI confirms oversold conditions; a reading below 30 by itself only indicates what has recently happened. In this regard, Dogecoin might have yet to confirm oversold conditions, but the chances of a potential relief rally exist given the current oversold reading.
Dogecoin (DOGE) traded within a narrow range between $0.074 and $0.076 in recent hours, as market participants watched closely to see if buyers could push the cryptocurrency above $0.078. While technical patterns suggest the possibility of a short-term rebound, a build-up of long positions in the futures market could trigger greater volatility in the event of a downward break.
Technical outlook points to short-term recovery potentialCurrently, DOGE hovers near key levels identified in technical analysis. Based on data from TradingView and analyst Carlos Garcia Tapia, the price remains above the pivotal $0.07408 point, marked as a support zone from January 2024. The maintenance of this level, alongside a short-term upward trendline, suggests that buying interest at lower levels persists.
The chart structure maintains the prospect of a short-term recovery for Dogecoin, yet there is not a definitive breakout signal at this stage.
The first significant resistance lies around $0.0759. Should this range be breached, DOGE could target the short-term resistance band between $0.0783 and $0.0784. If buying momentum increases further, the next area to watch is $0.0803 to $0.0804.
Critical price levels under scrutinyAbove these bands, resistance is seen at $0.0850 and later $0.0876. For DOGE to advance to these zones, the current sideways pattern must give way to a stronger wave of buying. Conversely, losing the rising trendline support, or slipping below $0.07408, could undermine the positive scenario and spark fresh selling pressure.
A recent market table highlights the importance of several price thresholds: $0.07408 as primary short-term support, $0.0759 as initial resistance, $0.0783–$0.0784 as the next resistance target, and $0.0803–$0.0804 should the upward move persist. These markers remain pivotal for traders tracking near-term momentum.
Rising long positions add to market riskAnother noteworthy dynamic is the sharp increase in long positions within the DOGE perpetual futures market. Charts shared by CW using TradingView data indicate that after a pullback in the second half of June, DOGE stabilized in the $0.073 to $0.076 range. Meanwhile, open interest—reflecting the total number of active, unsettled contracts—has surged, revealing that investors have significantly increased exposure even as prices hold steady.
According to the view provided by CW, while the price moves sideways, there is a concentration of long positions, suggesting both uncertainty and a heightened risk of sudden price swings.
In this market environment, $0.076 remains a key resistance. If DOGE pushes above this level, a move toward the $0.078 to $0.080 zone could become likely. On the downside, a break below the $0.072 support would upset the current balance and place additional pressure on leveraged long positions.
At present, Dogecoin is yet to signal a clear direction. Charts continue to hint at a short-term recovery, but heavy positioning means any loss of key support levels could trigger sharp market reactions.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Trading activity in Dogecoin was subdued over the weekend, leading to a decline in open interest on the futures market. According to figures from Coinglass, open interest fell by 2.4% in the past 24 hours, dropping to $959 million. During the same period, increased selling pressure became evident once again across the cryptocurrency market.
Weekend selling pressure continuesThe weakness in digital assets that persisted throughout last week extended into Sunday with a fresh wave of selling. In some market segments, a shift in investor focus toward AI-related stocks is believed to have accelerated capital outflows from crypto assets.
Many cryptocurrencies, including Dogecoin, traded in negative territory. Liquidations across the market reached $141 million. Dogecoin itself lost 2.2% in value over 24 hours to settle at $0.073, bringing its weekly loss to 12%. Even as equity markets tested new highs, the outflow from spot ETFs and the US Federal Reserve’s ongoing tight monetary policy continued to apply pressure on the crypto market.
Coinglass data revealed that open interest in Dogecoin declined to $959 million, with prices falling on both daily and weekly scales.
Lowest level of June recordedOn June 23, Dogecoin slipped to $0.071, marking its lowest point since November 2023. Losses during June alone approached 27%. This signals not only a rough period for Dogecoin but also highlights broader weakness for the overall crypto market as the quarter draws to a close.
Market participants are now shifting their attention to the third quarter. The main question is whether the current downtrend will give way to a short-term recovery or if the persistent lackluster performance of past quarters will carry over into the new period.
Technical indicators flash oversold zoneDogecoin has experienced gradual depreciation since the start of the year. It is notable that in 2024 so far, Dogecoin has posted a positive monthly return only once. Over this period, technical indicators have also grown weaker. The daily RSI dropped below 30, reaching as low as 24. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a key metric for gauging price momentum.
Mini glossary: RSI is a technical indicator that measures the recent price momentum of an asset. Generally, values below 30 signal oversold conditions, while those above 70 indicate overbought territory.
An oversold RSI sometimes triggers brief rallies in the market. However, a drop below the 30 level is not a guarantee of a price reversal on its own; the indicator mainly highlights current price weakness. The present market setup suggests that while a short-lived relief bounce in Dogecoin is possible, there are not yet clear signs of a definitive trend reversal.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Cardano’s native token ADA continued its downward trend on June 28, falling 1.09% over the past 24 hours to $0.1452. ADA’s market capitalization was reported at $5.31 billion, with daily trading volume reaching $285.04 million during this period.
Technical indicators paint a weak outlookWhile the broader cryptocurrency market remains directionless, ADA has failed to break free from the persistent downtrend seen over wider time frames. This ongoing weakness has increased concerns that the token could suffer further declines in the short term.
In an assessment dated June 28, 2026, More Crypto Online noted that Cardano’s price continues to move within a clear downward pattern on higher time frames. The analyst stated that if the current wave count holds, the next critical support lies near $0.092.
According to More Crypto Online, unless ADA overcomes key resistance levels, the outlook is likely to remain in favor of sellers.
Support and resistance areas are closely watched by the market to guide buying and selling decisions. If ADA falls below current support zones, selling pressure could intensify. Conversely, buyers defending these regions may lay the groundwork for a possible recovery in the coming weeks.
Derivative market signals cautious sentimentData from derivatives markets also underscores the current caution. Open interest dropped 3.36% over the last 24 hours to $363.35 million, while derivative trading volume plunged 36.53% to $264.19 million in the same period.
These simultaneous declines indicate that some market participants are choosing to close existing positions rather than open new ones. This trend highlights a lack of strong conviction about short-term direction.
Mini glossary: Open interest refers to the total number of derivative contracts, such as futures, that have not been settled. Cost of carry is the expense of holding these positions; a negative value can indicate that short positions are priced more favorably.
IndicatorCurrent LevelChange (24h)ADA Price$0.1452-1.09%Open Interest$363.35 million-3.36%Derivative Trading Volume$264.19 million-36.53%Analyst’s Key Support Level$0.092Highlighted critical levelThe open-interest weighted cost of carry also remained negative at -0.0220%. This data indicates that short positions continue to hold a modest advantage in the futures market, reflecting participants who expect further price pressure in the near term.
Network development continues, but price lags behindCardano’s network is making progress with ecosystem upgrades and the expansion of decentralized applications. Known as a research-driven and scalable blockchain, Cardano has focused on smart contract development. Despite these network advancements, ADA has not seen a corresponding boost in price performance.
Despite technical progress in the ecosystem, the market remains focused in the short term on whether ADA can maintain its current support levels.
Looking ahead, investors will be monitoring whether ADA can hold above key support zones. Market sentiment and buying interest are expected to determine the token’s direction. If downward pressure persists, the $0.092 level will draw even closer attention.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Samson Mow, the CEO of Jan3, claims that Bitcoin‘s recent local downtrend has ended and that the asset has reached a cycle bottom. According to Mow, the key factor supporting the current market is the cluster of strong buy limit orders around $58,000. Jan3 is widely recognized for its initiatives aimed at Bitcoin infrastructure and adoption across the globe.
Why is the $58,000 level significant?Mow bases his optimistic outlook on the fact that Bitcoin set a new all-time high 37 days before the recent halving. In his view, this occurrence disrupted classic market patterns observed in previous cycles and signaled a permanent acceleration in Bitcoin’s cycle dynamics.
He argues that, in this context, analysis projecting a deeper capitulation within the next four months have lost credibility. Mow believes that relying on past cycle behaviors fails to account for the realities of the current market structure.
Samson Mow stated that because Bitcoin broke its all-time high before the halving, old cycle models are now obsolete, and scenarios predicting a sharp selloff in the coming months no longer carry the same weight.
A sharp critique of technical analysisMow also takes aim at proponents of traditional technical analysis. He argues that the claim—that charts can perfectly predict the future—contradicts real investor behavior. If such forecasting were possible, analysts could simply sell at the top and wait for the bottom, eliminating the need for constant new chart patterns.
In his view, classic chart reading has become detached from the market’s real dynamics in current conditions. Mow emphasizes that liquidity distribution and the clustering of buy and sell orders play a much larger role in price formation than technical formations or chart patterns.
How did the buy wall offset selling pressure?Mow argues that the primary reason for Bitcoin’s recent stability is the large pool of buy-side liquidity around $58,000. He explains that the concentrated limit buy orders at this level absorbed selling pressure, thus preventing a steeper decline.
He maintains that the successful defense of this price zone has clearly established a local bottom for Bitcoin. For those investors waiting to enter at lower levels, Mow suggests that their window of opportunity has now largely closed.
Strategy and the Tether debate addressedMow also commented on the latest criticisms aimed at major institutional players. He noted that recent skepticism directed at Strategy is a new version of the fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) campaigns that once targeted Tether.
Backing his view, Mow pointed to Tether’s first quarter 2026 results, which showed a net profit of $1.04 billion and total assets of $191.77 billion. In Mow’s assessment, these figures undermine claims that coordinated market pressures are weakening the company or the broader ecosystem.
Mow asserted that the criticisms leveled at Strategy resemble a new wave of Tether fear mongering, but that Tether’s reported $1.04 billion net profit and $191.77 billion in assets for Q1 2026 weaken these narratives.
Disclaimer: The information contained in this article does not constitute investment advice. Investors should be aware that cryptocurrencies carry high volatility and therefore risk, and should conduct their own research.
Tether is expanding the use of Tether Gold as crypto lender Ledn adds support for XAU₮.
Summary
Tether is expanding XAU₮ utility by bringing tokenized gold into Ledn’s lending platform this year. XAU₮ holders will be able to borrow against gold without selling the underlying tokenized bullion. The move follows Tether’s wider shift toward gold, Bitcoin mining, AI, and infrastructure assets. The move will let users hold and trade tokenized gold on Ledn, with gold-backed loans expected later this year.
The plan extends Tether’s wider gold strategy at a time when tokenized bullion is gaining more use in crypto markets. Each XAU₮ token represents one fine troy ounce of physical gold stored in Swiss vaults.
XAU₮ joins Ledn’s lending platform Ledn said it has added support for XAU₮ alongside Bitcoin, USD₮ and USA₮. The platform said users can now hold and trade XAU₮, while borrowing against the tokenized gold product will come later in 2026.
The product follows the same structure Ledn has used for Bitcoin-backed loans. Users can access liquidity while keeping exposure to the underlying asset instead of selling it for cash.
Ledn said client collateral remains held 1:1 and is not lent out or used to generate yield. That point matters after the 2022 crypto lending failures, when weak risk controls and rehypothecation hurt many customers.
The company said demand is growing for services that combine long-term asset ownership with financial flexibility.
“As digital assets become an increasingly important part of the global economy, demand is growing for solutions that combine long-term ownership with financial flexibility,” Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino said.
Tether expands its gold strategy Tether Gold has grown sharply over the past year as demand for tokenized gold increased. Tether said XAU₮ reserves reached 707,747.139 fine troy ounces by March 31, 2026.
That was up from 520,089.350 fine troy ounces at the end of 2025. Tether said XAU₮’s market value rose from about $2.25 billion to more than $3.3 billion during the first quarter.
The wider $23 billion gold figure refers to Tether’s broader bullion position across its products. Reuters reported that Tether held about 132 metric tons of gold for USDT reserves at the end of March, valued near $19.8 billion, while XAU₮ accounted for about 22 tons.
Tether has also moved to focus more on XAU₮ after closing Alloy and aUSDT. As previously reported, users can redeem aUSDT and recover XAU₮ until Sept. 17 before Alloy support ends.
Gold-backed loans mirror Bitcoin lending Gold-backed lending is not new in traditional finance. Banks, bullion dealers and large financial firms have long used physical gold as collateral.
Tether and Ledn are trying to bring that model into digital asset markets. Tokenized gold can move on blockchain rails while still tracking ownership of physical bullion held in custody.
This setup may appeal to users who want to keep gold exposure but still need liquidity. A borrower could use XAU₮ as collateral and receive stablecoins without selling the gold-backed asset.
The model also gives Tether another way to add use cases around XAU₮. Instead of acting only as a tokenized gold holding, XAU₮ could become collateral inside crypto lending markets.
Tokenized gold push widens The Ledn plan follows other recent moves around Tether Gold. Tether and Fasset launched a Visa card with XAU₮ rewards, allowing eligible users to spend through the card and earn up to 6% cashback in tokenized gold.
That product placed XAU₮ closer to everyday payments. It also showed how Tether is testing uses for tokenized gold beyond storage and trading.
The company has also invested beyond stablecoins. Tether has backed Bitcoin mining, renewable energy projects, AI infrastructure, Gold.com and Antalpha as part of a wider technology and infrastructure push.
For Tether, the Ledn deal gives XAU₮ another practical role. Users may soon be able to borrow against tokenized gold in a structure closer to Bitcoin-backed lending, without giving up exposure to the underlying bullion.
The crypto ranking experienced a rare shift on June 26. Tether’s USDT briefly surpassed Ether in market capitalization, becoming the second cryptocurrency in the market behind Bitcoin. This reversal did not come from an increase in the USDT price, but from Ethereum’s sharp drop to its lowest level in 2026.
In brief USDT briefly surpassed Ether with over 186 billion dollars in capitalization. Ethereum fell near 1,510 dollars, its lowest level in 2026. The growth of stablecoins reveals a crypto market that has become more defensive. USDT reached a capitalization close to 186.06 billion dollars. At the same time, Ether’s capitalization fell to around 185.66 billion. Tether’s stablecoin thus temporarily occupied the second place in the crypto ranking. A scenario that some observers had already considered when Ethereum’s position began to seem less solid.
The crossover remained narrow. By June 27, Ether had recovered a capitalization close to 190 billion dollars thanks to a rebound in its price. USDT remained around 186 billion, with no major variation in its unit value.
This difference highlights a key particularity. Ethereum’s capitalization depends directly on the price of ETH. USDT’s capitalization evolves mainly according to the number of tokens in circulation, as each unit aims to maintain a value close to one dollar.
The surpassing therefore does not mean that investors have suddenly valued Tether as a blockchain technology superior to Ethereum. It rather shows that digital dollars are gaining ground while volatile crypto assets retreat.
Ethereum falls to its lowest level in 2026 Ether fell near 1,510 dollars on Coinbase, its lowest level of the year. The drop reached about 5.2% over twenty-four hours and nearly 9% over a week. It was enough to push its capitalization below that of USDT.
The correction becomes even more striking when compared to the August 2025 peak. At that time, ETH traded around 4,946 dollars. The decline now exceeds 68%, bringing the price back to levels seen in 2023 and April 2025.
Ethereum nevertheless retains significant activity in decentralized finance, stablecoins, and tokenization. But the crypto market does not automatically reward the use of a network. Demand for its token also depends on the economic context, speculation, and investor confidence.
This weakness does not only affect Ether. It weighs on all altcoins, often more sensitive to capital outflows than Bitcoin. When risk increases, investors often favor liquidity or assets considered more defensive.
Stablecoins rise in the crypto rankings USDT is not the only stablecoin to have benefited from the decline. Circle’s USDC also surpassed XRP in capitalization. USDC was nearly 74 billion dollars, against about 65 billion for XRP after its fall to one dollar.
Again, stablecoins did not experience a spectacular price increase. Their value remained close to one dollar. It is the competing crypto assets that declined, allowing stable digital currencies to gain ground.
This growth also reflects a real increase in their supply. The stablecoin market reached new records in 2026, even as several major cryptocurrencies lost value. USDT retains first place, while USDC gains ground in payments and on-chain transactions.
Stablecoins now represent a significant share of the total crypto capitalization. They serve as a temporary reserve for traders, a means of settlement in DeFi, and a tool for international transfers. Their demand no longer depends solely on periods of speculative euphoria.
For Ethereum, the challenge now is to turn its technical activity into a sustainable demand for ETH. For Tether, the issue will be to maintain confidence around its reserves and its dollar peg. In both cases, this episode confirms that stablecoins are no longer just secondary tools. They now occupy the center of the crypto market.
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Lydie M.
Enseignante et ingénieure IT, Lydie découvre le Bitcoin en 2022 et plonge dans l’univers des cryptomonnaies. Elle vulgarise des sujets complexes, décrypte les enjeux du Web3 et défend une vision d’un futur numérique ouvert, inclusif et décentralisé.
DISCLAIMER
The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed in this article belong solely to the author, and should not be taken as investment advice. Do your own research before taking any investment decisions.
