We are stuck in a 5 day sideways range from 4310 to 4449 & we are likely to hold this range for a while longer, especially as the last 2 weeks of August are usually very quiet.
We headed lower yesterday, reversing again & wiping out Monday's gains, keeping that up one day, down the next day pattern, in the sideways trend.
We broke support at 4355/4345 & should have a sell opportunity at 4355/4365 today - shorts need stops above 4375.
Targets: 4335/30 & 4310/05 for profit taking on shorts.
A break higher tests the 100 day moving average at 4385/4390.
Above here we may retest recent highs at 4420/4430.
Just be aware that a break below 4305 today completes a short term double top sell signal & could trigger further losses as far as 4220/4210 (eventually).
The US Dollar (USD) resumes its broader bearish trend with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) drawing support from higher Oil prices and a deal with the US to pause 50% tariffs on Canadian exports. The USD/CAD pair returns to levels below 1.3880, following rejection at the 1.3900 area, with bears eyeing the support zone at 1.3850.
US and Canada reached a last-minute deal earlier on Wednesday to delay imposing new tariffs on a wide range of Canadian goods for three days, as negotiations towards a trade agreement advance.
Beyond that, Oil prices, Canada’s main export, keep growing as the US-Iran peace process remains stalled and markets brace for an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent Oil appreciated beyond 6% over the last three days, returning to the $90.00 area, which hints at higher trade revenues for Canada.
Technical Analysis: Support at the 200-day SMA is on focus
USD/CAD trades at 1.3876, retaining a mildly bearish near-term bias with momentum indicators in the daily chart deeply into bearish territory. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 32, just above oversold levels, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is well below zero, highlighting solid downside pressure.
Dips have been supported at the confluence of the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the bottom of the descending channel, in the 1.3850 area, but the rejection at 1.3900 confirmed that bears are in charge. Further down, the next target would be the late May lows in the 1.3770 area.
On the topside, the 1.3900 level should be broken to ease bearish pressure and clear the path towards a previous support area and the channel top, near the 1.4000 level.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.16%-0.13%-0.27%-0.17%0.24%0.11%-0.15%EUR0.16%0.01%-0.11%0.03%0.38%0.24%0.02%GBP0.13%-0.01%-0.11%-0.01%0.39%0.24%-0.02%JPY0.27%0.11%0.11%0.11%0.49%0.35%0.10%CAD0.17%-0.03%0.00%-0.11%0.38%0.24%-0.01%AUD-0.24%-0.38%-0.39%-0.49%-0.38%-0.13%-0.37%NZD-0.11%-0.24%-0.24%-0.35%-0.24%0.13%-0.24%CHF0.15%-0.02%0.02%-0.10%0.00%0.37%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD has extended its rebound towards 1.1600 as European yields remain elevated while US Treasury yields stabilize after the recent spike. The team argues markets are pricing too many ECB rate hikes, suggesting scope for European rates to move lower, while upcoming FOMC Minutes remain the key catalyst for further direction.
EUR/USD recovers as yields stabilize and ECB bets shift"It was an ugly cocktail for European assets yesterday with equities moving lower, European yields rising as the curve bear-flattened and commodities tracking higher. While risk sentiment remains sour in Asia, US yields have steadied in overnight trading and the 10Y UST yield has dropped from an intraday high of 4.75% yesterday to 4.69%. In our Yield Outlook released yesterday, we conclude that markets expect too many ECB hikes and see room for European rates to move lower."
"In Germany, the ZEW economic sentiment surprised to the upside in August, with expectations rising to 34.2 (cons.: 30.0, prior: 26.3), while the assessment of the current situation improved to -61.1 (cons.: -69.3, prior: -77.6). The current situation is now almost back at the levels seen before the war in Iran, although expectations remain somewhat lower."
"The data follows a string of upside growth surprises in the euro area. Growth is also increasingly supported by fiscal stimulus."
"In the euro area, final July HICP inflation is due and is expected to confirm the flash estimate at 2.9% y/y for headline inflation and 2.5% y/y for core inflation."
"In the US, the minutes from the FOMC's July meeting are released this evening. Markets are looking for a more detailed sense of the committee's thinking beyond Kevin Warsh's limited forward guidance. Three participants voted in favour of a hike, and since then, several others have flagged willingness to support a hike if warranted by incoming data."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
AUDUSD hitting new highs The Australian dollar (AUDUSD) was up for another session before a heavy price rejection at the 0.7100 region. Price action has fallen around 30 pips but remains elevated above the 0.7100 level.
The NZD/USD pair trades with mild losses around 0.5875 during the early European session on Wednesday. Escalating tensions in the Middle East boost a safe-haven currency such as the US Dollar (USD) and act as a headwind for the pair.
Iran’s Chief of Staff Major General Ali Abdollahi on Wednesday warned Persian Gulf states against providing assistance to the US military amid heightened regional tensions. "We warn any assistance and facilitation provided to the aggressor U.S. army is tantamount to participation with U.S. military forces,” Abdollahi added.
However, traders reduce their bets of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike in the September policy meeting after the release of unexpected job losses in July and tame inflation data. This, in turn, could weigh on the Greenback and cap the downside for the pair.
"Benign inflation and signs of softness in the US labour market make a September Fed hike highly unlikely at this point—despite the modest firming in Fed expectations this morning," said Scotiabank analysts led by Shaun Osborne. "Short-term USD gains remain a fade from our point of view,” Osborne added.
NZD edges above average as BNY questions pricing for further RBNZ hikesStrategists at BNY observe that the Kiwi is trading with a modest tailwind, noting that “the NZD itself is now trading slightly above the rolling 12-month average.” However, they push back against the degree of tightening implied by current market pricing, stating that they “continue to doubt the current market pricing of interest rates expectations, where two more Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) hikes are expected by year end.” While BNY acknowledges that “domestic activity remains robust,” they emphasise that “inflation expectations remain relatively well-anchored,” suggesting the case for additional RBNZ rate increases may be less compelling than investors currently assume.
Technical Analysis: NZD/USD maintains a mildly positive tone above the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, NZD/USD holds a mildly bullish near-term bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ middle SMA, hinting at underlying demand on dips. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 55 keeps a neutral-to-positive tone, suggesting upside pressure is present but not stretched.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the August 17 high of 0.5926. The next hurdle is seen at the Bollinger upper band near 0.5940, where rallies could pause. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 0.6000 psychologocal level.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger middle band around 0.5855, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.5830. A deeper retreat would expose the lower Bollinger band near 0.5770 as a more substantial floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
New Zealand Dollar FAQs The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Silver (XAG/USD) trades lower for the second consecutive day on Wednesday, exploring prices below the $63.00 level at the time of writing, after a reversal from the $66.50 area on Tuesday. Precious metals are struggling as markets turn cautious amid the deterioration in the Middle East crisis, with oil prices consolidating at higher levels.
The Memorandum of Understanding between the US and Iran expired on Monday, and US President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that there are no talks with Tehran at the moment. Sea traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, meanwhile, remains limited to a trickle, which keeps Oil prices on the rise, with Brent Oil at $90 after rallying about 6% over the last three days.
Technical Analysis: Bears are pushing against the $63.30 support area
XAG/USD trades at $63.09, with bears pressing against the support area near the $63.30 level, which is the floor of last week's trading range and a previous resistance area. Intra-day momentum indicators endorse the bearish view, with the 4-hour Relative Strength Index (14) retreating toward the mid-30s, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) treading deeper into negative territory.
A confirmation below the mentioned $63.30 area would shift the focus towards the August 6 low at the $60.90 area, ahead of the late July and early August lows, in the mid-range of the $56.00s.
On the topside, if the pair manages to hold above $60.30, bulls might regain confidence to launch another attack to the resistance area around $67.00 (June 22, August 12 highs) ahead of a key resistance zone between mid-June highs, in the $71.55 area, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $71.85.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) underperforms its major currency peers on Wednesday, trading 0.17% lower at around 0.7070 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session. The antipodean faces selling pressure even as Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser has kept the door open for further monetary policy tightening.
Australian Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.18%-0.14%-0.24%-0.15%0.23%0.04%-0.22%EUR0.18%0.03%-0.09%0.06%0.39%0.19%-0.04%GBP0.14%-0.03%-0.11%0.02%0.38%0.18%-0.09%JPY0.24%0.09%0.11%0.11%0.46%0.27%0.00%CAD0.15%-0.06%-0.02%-0.11%0.35%0.16%-0.10%AUD-0.23%-0.39%-0.38%-0.46%-0.35%-0.18%-0.43%NZD-0.04%-0.19%-0.18%-0.27%-0.16%0.18%-0.25%CHF0.22%0.04%0.09%-0.01%0.10%0.43%0.25% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
Earlier in the day, RBA’s Hauser said, “Inflation is too high, and the central bank needs to raise interest rates to bring price pressures down.” Hauser added, “Monetary policy needs to bring inflation down and reduce demand in the economy.”
Meanwhile, the US Dollar also trades lower as fears of a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike in the September meeting have receded due to weak United States (US) data for July.
Later in the day, investors will focus on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
In Australia, investors will focus on the Aussie employment data for July, which will be released on Thursday.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD trades at 0.7073, holding a constructive near-term bullish bias as spot remains above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.7045, suggesting buyers retain control on dips.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 57.6 stays in positive territory without being overbought, hinting that upside momentum is present but not stretched.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 20-day EMA at 0.7045, where fresh buying interest could emerge if the pair retreats. On the upside, the August 17 high at 0.7129 is the key hurdle for the pair.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator FOMC Minutes FOMC stands for The Federal Open Market Committee that organizes 8 meetings in a year and reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Read more.
Next release: Wed Aug 19, 2026 18:00
Frequency: Irregular
Consensus: -
Previous: -
Source: Federal Reserve
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is usually published three weeks after the day of the policy decision. Investors look for clues regarding the policy outlook in this publication alongside the vote split. A bullish tone is likely to provide a boost to the greenback while a dovish stance is seen as USD-negative. It needs to be noted that the market reaction to FOMC Minutes could be delayed as news outlets don’t have access to the publication before the release, unlike the FOMC’s Policy Statement.
Key Points:Today's Fed minutes are the primary dollar catalyst as traders look for details on policymakers' views on rates and inflation.Markets currently favor a September Fed hold, according to the probabilities cited in your draft, reducing support from U.S. rate expectations.ECB tightening expectations are providing fundamental support for the euro as inflation remains above the central bank's target.UK inflation data are an important sterling catalyst as the BoE balances persistent price pressures against a cooling labor market.DXY remains vulnerable below the 99.89–100.19 EMA cluster, with 99.38 acting as the critical downside support.
In this article:GBP/USD
+0.07%
GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD
+0.11%
EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: Fed Minutes, ECB Hike Bets and UK Inflation Drive FX
Opening today, the focus is on upcoming minutes from the July Fed meeting. These will offer insight on how divided members were on the call regarding another potential rate hike. Although recent domestic data has shown signs of slowing (i.e. negative jobs report, milder inflation reports, lack of retail spending) current markets lean towards a chance of the Fed holding rates at the September meeting at about 65%, whereas a potential tightening is at 35%. Middle East supply concerns also mean that the dollar is not safe from another surprise inflation surge and a potential for more rate hikes.
On the other hand, the Euro has the potential to harden against the dollar given that, although inflation in the EU is at 2.9% (compared to the ECB’s target of 2%), eurozone inflation is still due to energy costs, which of course are transitory. A Reuters survey shows that 57 out of the 69 economists surveyed anticipate an increase of 25 basis points in the interest rate by the ECB from 2% to 2.5% in September, with a pause on interest rate hikes until the middle of 2027 at least.
Although inflation is falling in the UK as seen in the cooling of labor put in (i.e. dip in job vacancies and private sector wage growth), it is still signaling a negative outlook for GBP.
Investors are waiting for UK July inflation data coming Wednesday lunchtime. Analysts expect an increase in headline inflation to 2.9% from 2.6%. 56 of 64 economists surveyed by Reuters expect the BoE to maintain Bank Rate at 3.75% through the end of 2023.
For August 19, the main FX theme is policy divergence: fading Fed-hike expectations, a more hawkish ECB, and a BoE becoming more constrained by cooling jobs data, even with mounting inflationary pressures.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Pressures $99.38 Support as Momentum Stays Weak
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at approximately $99.55 after a long slide from the $101.60 zone. The price, which remains below the 50 and 100-day EMAs positioned at $100.19 and $99.89, respectively, keeps the short term outlook negative. The last few candles are clustering above the ascending trendline and the $99.38 support zone, making this area crucial for the potential continuation of the broader recovery.
The RSI line is at 38, indicating weak momentum and raising the risk for another test to the downside. Immediate resistance is at $100.06, then at $100.66, $101.30 and $101.77. In the case of a confirmed break below $99.38, we may see $98.94, $98.41 and $97.84
While the DXY is trading below the $99.89 – $100.19 zone, it is vulnerable in my opinion. The DXY can bounce to $100.06 if it holds $99.38, however, a daily close below $99.38 would be a much stronger bearish signal.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Pound Consolidates Above Rising Trendline Near $1.3540
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD stands at $1.3541 in the 2-hour chart, consolidating after moving towards the resistance area of $1.3565. For now, price resides above the 50-EMA at $1.3529 and the 100-EMA at $1.3510. The bullish structure is supported by an ascending trendline. The recent price action in the form of sideways candlesticks is signaling a pause in the price action rather than a reversal.
At the momentistics index (RSI) stands at the 53 level, which indicates neutral momentum after a decline from higher level. The price area of $1.3565 is the next resistance zone, followed by $1.3596, $1.3629 and $1.3660. On the opposite side, we see support zone at $1.3520, $1.3476, and $1.3434.
GBP/USD is bullish above $1.3510 – $1.3520. A break above $1.3565 will stimulate the buying amongst traders and push the price higher towards $1.3596, while a move below the trendline will likely push the price down towards $1.3476.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Holds Rising Trendline Above $1.1570
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
The price of EUR/USD is at $1.1586, while the broader bullish structure is above the rising trendline. The price is above the 50 EMA and 100 EMA located at $1.1569 and $1.1553, respectively. The latest price consolidation shows buyers are supporting the pullbacks after the advance to $1.1614
The RSI line is at 59 and is a good indicator of momentum as it is not in the overbought area. The next resistance price levels are at $1.1614, $1.1649 and $1.1684. Support levels are at $1.1570, $1.1545, $1.1515 and $1.1480.
I think that EUR/USD is technically positive above $1.1545-$1.1570 and the rising trendline. If $1.1614 is broken to the upside, then the $1.1649 level comes next. Selling EUR/USD below $1.1545 will shift the bias to the downside and target the lower EMAs.
Related Articles
U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Traders React To Housing Market Data: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPYUS Dollar Price Forecast: Fed Minutes Loom as EUR/USD and GBP/USD Test ResistanceU.S. Dollar Remains Under Pressure As Traders Reduce Bets On Hawkish Fed: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPYAbout the Author
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Gold – Chart Gold has climbed to about $4,337 on the daily chart where it is above the 100-day EMA slightly below at $4,325 as well as the pivot around $4,320. The recovery from the July base continues to hold, but price remains under a long-standing falling trendline around $4,446. In light of the recovery and the structure, bulls are faced with the dilemma of whether to break out.
RSI remains around 58, which indicates bullish momentum while avoiding overbought levels. $4,446 is the first major resistance level, followed by $4,595 and $4,778. If we look on the other side, $4,320 to $4,325 is the first key support area and is followed by $4,228 and $4,106. In my view, a break over $4,320 continues to help the bullish case while a break of $4,228 would allow for the selling to accelerate.
Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Breaks Rising Channel as $62.75 Support Comes Under Pressure RSI has now reached the 35 region, which makes this a strong bearish case and starts us in oversold territory. The first major resistance zone is $62.75, and beyond that is $64.20 and $66.55. The first significant support is $61.55, although support clusters quickly at $60.39 and the broader $59.00 region. As it stands, sub $62.75-$64.20 makes silver vulnerable. A silver recover to $64.20 and higher would be more bullish, whereas a slip to $62.75 would encourage a slip of the price toward $61.55 and even $60.39.
The EUR/USD pair trades in positive territory near 1.1585 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Euro (EUR) edges higher against the US Dollar (USD) as the German ZEW survey beat forecasts. The European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde’s is set to speak later on Wednesday.
Data on Tuesday showed that the German ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment came in at 34.2 in August, versus 26.3 prior, better than the estimates of 30.00. The ZEW Survey - Current Situation improves to -61.1 in August, compared to -77.6 in July, stronger than the -68.8 expected.
Financial markets are now pricing in a continuation of the ECB hiking cycle. The ECB Watch Tool indicates a 90% to 94% probability of a 25 basis points (bps) hike to 2.50% at the next policy meeting scheduled for September 9.
Analysts at MUFG note that the recent shift in US Dollar sentiment, driven by last week’s data releases that have “helped ease Fed rate hike expectations,” has yet to trigger any meaningful liquidation of long Dollar positions. They point out that “DXY remains supported above the 200-day moving average level of 99.185,” underscoring that the softer policy outlook has not translated into “any great sell-off” in the Dollar index.
In the daily chart, EUR/USD holds a bullish near‑term bias as spot remains above the 100‑day moving average (MA) and the Bollinger middle band, suggesting a constructive underlying trend after recovering from the lower band support around 1.1364. Momentum is supportive, with the Relative Strength Index (14) at 63.8, hinting that buyers retain control but are approaching overbought territory rather than entering it decisively.
On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the August 17 high of 1.1614. The next hurdle is seen at the Bollinger upper band near 1.1650, where upside attempts could start to stall.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the 100‑day MA at 1.1570, followed by the Bollinger middle band at 1.1505. A deeper pullbacks would look to the recent floor at the Bollinger lower band around 1.1365 to preserve the broader upturn.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold prices rose in Philippines on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,637.46 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, up compared with the PHP 8,613.68 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to PHP 100,746.40 per tola from PHP 100,468.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,637.46
10 Grams
86,374.95
Tola
100,746.40
Troy Ounce
268,663.10
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 524.66 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, up compared with the SAR 523.18 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to SAR 6,119.67 per tola from SAR 6,102.31 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
524.66
10 Grams
5,246.76
Tola
6,119.67
Troy Ounce
16,318.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in United Arab Emirates on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 512.99 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, up compared with the AED 511.76 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to AED 5,983.44 per tola from AED 5,969.03 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
512.99
10 Grams
5,129.92
Tola
5,983.44
Troy Ounce
15,955.84
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The short‑term Elliott Wave view in Silver (XAGUSD) indicates that the metal is unfolding an impulsive structure from the July 17 low. From that level, wave ((i)) advanced to $60.93 before a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) reached $56.54. Following this retracement, the market resumed higher in wave ((iii)), which developed as another impulse of lesser degree. Within this sequence, wave (i) ended at $62.9, while the subsequent dip in wave (ii) found support at $60.85. The rally in wave (iii) extended to $66.47, and the pullback in wave (iv) settled at $64.2. The final leg, wave (v), concluded at $66.8, thereby completing wave ((iii)) at a higher degree.
At present, the market is correcting in wave ((iv)), which is unfolding as a flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from the wave ((iii)) peak, wave (a) ended at $63.47, followed by a rally in wave (b) that reached $66.55. The decline in wave (c) is expected to terminate within the $61.1–$63.2 area. This zone should provide support for another leg higher or at least a three‑wave rally. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $56.6 low remains intact, the pullback is anticipated to complete in either three or seven swings. The overall structure suggests that Silver retains bullish potential once the correction in wave ((iv)) is finished.
Gold prices rose in Pakistan on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 38,784.53 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, up compared with the PKR 38,678.91 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to PKR 452,350.60 per tola from PKR 451,143.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
38,784.53
10 Grams
387,823.80
Tola
452,350.60
Troy Ounce
1,206,336.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in Malaysia on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 568.29 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, up compared with the MYR 566.10 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to MYR 6,628.50 per tola from MYR 6,602.91 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
568.29
10 Grams
5,683.16
Tola
6,628.50
Troy Ounce
17,676.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices rose in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,394.54 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 13,343.30 it cost on Tuesday.
The price for Gold increased to INR 156,230.40 per tola from INR 155,633.60 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,394.54
10 Grams
133,935.20
Tola
156,230.40
Troy Ounce
416,615.20
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
The short‑term Elliott Wave view in Silver (XAGUSD) indicates that the metal is unfolding an impulsive structure from the July 17 low. From that level, wave ((i)) advanced to $60.93 before a corrective pullback in wave ((ii)) reached $56.54. Following this retracement, the market resumed higher in wave ((iii)), which developed as another impulse of lesser degree. Within this sequence, wave (i) ended at $62.9, while the subsequent dip in wave (ii) found support at $60.85. The rally in wave (iii) extended to $66.47, and the pullback in wave (iv) settled at $64.2. The final leg, wave (v), concluded at $66.8, thereby completing wave ((iii)) at a higher degree.
At present, the market is correcting in wave ((iv)), which is unfolding as a flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from the wave ((iii)) peak, wave (a) ended at $63.47, followed by a rally in wave (b) that reached $66.55. The decline in wave (c) is expected to terminate within the $61.1–$63.2 area. This zone should provide support for another leg higher or at least a three‑wave rally. In the near term, as long as the pivot at $56.6 low remains intact, the pullback is anticipated to complete in either three or seven swings. The overall structure suggests that Silver retains bullish potential once the correction in wave ((iv)) is finished.
Silver (XAGUSD) 60 Minute Elliott Wave Chart XAGUSD Elliott Wave Video You are currently viewing a placeholder content from Default. To access the actual content, click the button below. Please note that doing so will share data with third-party providers.
ElliottWave-Forecast has built its reputation on accurate technical analysis and a winning attitude. By successfully incorporating the Elliott Wave Theory with Market Correlation, Cycles, Proprietary Pivot System, we provide precise forecasts with up-to-date analysis for 52 instruments including Forex majors & crosses, Commodities and a number of Equity Indices from around the World. Our clients also have immediate access to our proprietary Actionable Trade Setups, Market Overview, 1 Hour, 4 Hour, Daily & Weekly Wave Counts. Weekend Webinar, Live Screen Sharing Sessions, Daily Technical Videos, Elliott Wave Setup videos, Educational Resources, and 24 Hour chat room where they are provided live updates and given answers to their questions.
The EUR/JPY cross trades in negative territory around 184.60 during the early European trading hours on Wednesday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges higher against the Euro (EUR) amid hawkish signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ). Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation report will be the highlight later on Friday.
Growing speculation that the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates in the coming months provides some support to the JPY. Reuters in a report Friday said the Japanese central bank is considering a rate hike as soon as September. Overnight index swaps are pricing in about an 80% odds of a move by that month.
On the other hand, mounting fiscal worries in Japan could exert some selling pressure on the JPY. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s proposal to cut the consumption tax on food to 1% for two years has raised market concerns, as the government has yet to identify an alternative revenue source and the measure is viewed as an ineffective way to fight inflation.
Japan political pressures bolster support for higher rates to steady the YenStrategists at DBS highlight a notable shift in Japan’s policy backdrop, observing that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has become “more supportive of raising interest rates to stabilize the JPY amid lower approval ratings and rising cost-of-living pressures.” They argue that this evolving political stance is adding to the case for a less accommodative policy mix, as authorities increasingly frame higher rates as a tool to shore up the Yen and address mounting domestic concerns.
Technical Analysis: EUR/JPY keeps a mildly bearish vibe in the near termIn the daily chart, EUR/JPY maintains a mildly bearish near-term bias as it holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Price remains confined within the Bollinger Bands, sitting above the middle band support but well under the upper band resistance, which hints at capped upside while the Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.71 stays in neutral territory.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-day SMA near 185.10. The next upside barrier is located at the June 17 high of 186.32, en route to the upper Bollinger Band around 187.65.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the Bollinger middle band at 184.10, ahead of a deeper cushion near the August 10 low of 182.70. The next contention level is seen at the lower band around 180.50, where a more pronounced corrective phase could find demand.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
Most currencies look stable and lack directional clarity just now as the US-Iran conflict intensifies but fails to induce volatility into forex markets. Crucial resistances and supports need close watch to get some cues in the near term. Dollar Index holds steady below 99.50/100 and needs a break above these levels on the upside to turn bullish while Euro holds between 1.1550-1.16 for now. EURJPY is bullish towards 185/186 while above support at 184; USDJPY looks positive for a slow rise towards 160 while above 159. USDCNY is likely to hold above 6.74 for some time before resuming its downtrend. Aussie could trade between 0.70-0.71 for a few sessions before a break on either side is seen for further directional clarity. Pound can target 1.36/37 while above support at 1.35. EURINR will have to sustain a break above 111 to move up further. View is bullish. USDINR is trading at crucial levels. A decline or break above 95.75 would indicate the further near-term direction for the Rupee.
The US Treasury Yields have come down slightly from their highs. There is room to rise more to test their resistance. As mentioned yesterday, we need to see if we are going to get a correction after that or an extended rise. The German Yields continue to move up. The bullish view is intact. They can rise more from here. The 10Yr GoI has come off from its high. The chance of an extended rise is still alive. Thereafter we can expect it to resume the downtrend.
Global equities remain weak, with major indices under pressure amid the ongoing sell-off in technology stocks. Dow and DAX can decline further towards 53000 and 26000 respectively, while Nifty could fall towards 24000 after a gap-down opening. Nikkei has weakened sharply and can decline towards 65000-64000. Shanghai has also turned lower and could remain range-bound within 3900-4000 before further directional clarity emerges.
Brent and WTI are likely to stay range-bound within $80-$95 and $75-$90 respectively until a breakout provides further direction. Gold continues to consolidate within $4350-$4500 but remains bullish above $4200, with a break above $4500 opening the way towards $4600 and higher. Silver has dipped but can still rise towards $70-$75. Copper remains under pressure but could rebound towards $6.65-$6.75 if support near $6.35-$6.30 holds. Natural Gas has strengthened above $2.75 and can rise further towards $2.80.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
Silver price dropped 3.73% on Wednesday as investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed minutes. Silver prices may benefit if the Fed minutes reduce expectations of further rate hikes. But if oil prices continue to rise, it may keep inflation high enough to keep the Fed on a tight policy. This would put pressure on silver prices via a stronger dollar and higher yields. Silver is also vulnerable to losses due to U.S. retail spending and unexpected employment cuts. These indicators raise concerns about the industrial demand. Therefore, the silver price may lag behind gold until there is a clearer picture of the economic and interest rate environment.
Gold Price Forecast: Break Above $4,500 Could Target $5,000 The daily chart for spot gold shows that the recent drop on Wednesday was due to the strong resistance near the $4,400-$4,500 region as discussed in the previous analysis. The price is consolidating to build momentum to the upside.
But a break below $4,150 will likely indicate further downside towards the $3,900 area. A break above $4,500 will open the door for a strong rally towards the $5,000 region. The RSI indicator remains above the midline, which indicates further upside in the gold market.
Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 0.5% to near $63.00 during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The white metal extends its Tuesday’s decline amid fears of prolonged inflation concerns on the back of continued energy supply disruption.
As of writing, the WTI Oil price trades close to its two-week high at $85.11.
Higher oil prices de-anchor global inflation expectations, a scenario that prompts fears of interest rate hikes from global central banks. Such a case diminishes the appeal of non-yielding assets, like Silver.
The energy supply disruption seems unlikely to get fixed anytime soon as US President Donald Trump has confirmed that “there are no talks or conversations going on, or scheduled, with the Islamic Republic of Iran”.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting takes the centre stage, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Investors should not anticipate major cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook, as Chairman Kevin Warsh remained stick to “no forward guidance” on policy rates.
Currently, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in the September policy meeting.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at $63.04, trading close to the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $62.41, suggesting a cautious near-term trend.
The Relative Strength Index (14) at 52.59 stays in neutral-to-positive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is still present but no longer overstretched.
On the downside, immediate support is located at the 20-day EMA at $62.41, where buyers are likely to defend the uptrend if corrective pressure extends, followed by the $60 round-level. Looking up, the August 10 high at around $66 act as key supply area.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds from the weekly low, which it touched during the Asian session on Wednesday, and climbs above $4,350 in the last hour. The US Dollar (USD) attracts some sellers, stalling this week's goodish recovery from a two-month low, and helps the commodity reverse a part of the previous day's heavy losses. Traders, however, might opt to wait for more cues about the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) future policy path before placing fresh directional bets on the non-yielding yellow metal.
Hence, the focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC Minutes amid inflationary jitters stemming from rising energy prices due to the Middle East crisis. In fact, crude oil prices climb to a nearly three-week high amid the US-Iran standoff over the Strait of Hormuz. President Donald Trump has asserted that the US is not engaged in talks with Iran and that the naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in full force. Furthermore, Trump posted a map on Truth Social depicting the strategic Strait of Hormuz as the new US territory.
Meanwhile, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said the critical waterway would remain closed until the US fulfills conditions agreed to a June memorandum of understanding. This keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play and supports crude oil prices, fueling inflation concerns and lifting the longer-end 30-year US bond yield to its highest level since June 2007. Furthermore, CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates that traders are still pricing in around a 68% chance of a Fed rate hike by the year-end.
Analysts at ING highlight that the US Dollar index (DXY) has “rebounded from the range lows at 99.40,” underlining that “the Dollar is not quite ready to make a sustained break lower just yet.” They point to “higher energy prices and rising 30-year Treasury yields” as the two key factors providing near-term support, noting that “both of these, should they extend, could put a September hike from the Fed back on the agenda.”
On the energy side, ING observes that “news that Washington seemingly has little interest in extending the 60-day ceasefire with Iran has seen oil and gas prices creep higher again.” While “in which direction the next big leg for energy prices emerges is anyone's guess,” the bank stresses that “higher energy is a Dollar positive – both through US energy independence and the Fed's reaction function.”
Apart from this, persistent geopolitical uncertainties might hold back bearish traders from placing fresh bets on the safe-haven Greenback, warranting some caution before positioning for any further appreciation in the Gold price.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisFrom a technical perspective, the XAU/USD pair has been struggling to find acceptance above the 50% retracement level of the April-June decline and remains well below the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This keeps the near-term bias tilted bearish despite the metal consolidating near recent highs.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains above zero, though it has slipped back toward the signal, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.24 stays in positive territory. This suggests that bullish momentum is still present but vulnerable to further corrective pressure while the Gold price fails to reclaim the aforementioned resistance levels.
Overhead, the 50% retracement at $4,406 is the first hurdle, with the longer-term SMA at $4,509 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $4,519.36 reinforcing a broader ceiling. On the downside, initial support emerges at the 38.2% Fibo. retracement at $4,292, guarding the pullback before the 23.6% retracement at $4,152 and the structural floor around $3,925.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.08%-0.04%-0.16%-0.16%0.15%0.09%-0.09%EUR0.08%0.02%-0.09%-0.07%0.21%0.14%-0.02%GBP0.04%-0.02%-0.11%-0.10%0.21%0.12%-0.05%JPY0.16%0.09%0.11%-0.01%0.29%0.22%0.04%CAD0.16%0.07%0.10%0.00%0.29%0.22%0.05%AUD-0.15%-0.21%-0.21%-0.29%-0.29%-0.05%-0.22%NZD-0.09%-0.14%-0.12%-0.22%-0.22%0.05%-0.17%CHF0.09%0.02%0.05%-0.04%-0.05%0.22%0.17% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold is looking back toward the $4,400 level early Wednesday, reversing a steep pullback seen on Tuesday. All eyes now remain on the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) July policy meeting, due later on Wednesday, for fresh trading impetus.
Gold looks to FOMC Minutes for the next leg upGold has resumed its upside momentum, following a temporary pause, as bulls continue to cheer fading hopes that the Fed will raise interest rates at its September 16-17 monetary policy meeting.
The recent weak US labor market data and mild inflation readings prompted markets to scale back their bets on a September Fed rate hike from roughly 50% to 35% as of writing, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Therefore, the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes will be closely scrutinized to gauge the thinking among the board members under the new leadership of Kevin Warsh, which could offer fresh insights on the central bank’s path forward on interest rates.
It’s worth noting that the FOMC voted 9-3 to hold rates at 3.5%-3.75% last month, while Fed Chair Warsh stuck to his rhetoric of maintaining price stability.
If markets perceive the FOMC’s internal debate as less hawkish, with policymakers sticking to the wait-and-see approach, it could trigger a fresh sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) alongside US Treasury bond yields, boosting non-yielding assets such as Gold.
However, the Committee shows urgency to act on rates amid the Middle East conflict-driven rise in oil prices and inflation concerns. Gold could come under intense selling pressure as the USD could stage a recovery. In this scenario, the odds for a September Fed rate hike could regain traction.
In the meantime, Gold breathes a sigh of relief following the previous sell-off fuelled by the US Treasury bond yields rally to multi-decade highs.
Global yields shot through the roof on Tuesday, as uncertainty around the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz drove Oil prices to three-week highs and revived inflation fears.
“US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday there were no talks with Iran and insisted the Strait of Hormuz was open, contradicting Iran's assertion that the waterway remained shut to shipping,” per Reuters.
Tuesday’s Gold pullback could also be partially attributed to profit-taking ahead of the upcoming Fed Minutes release.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,354.92, maintaining a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above both the 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages (SMAs) at $4,215.01 and $4,155.34, respectively. The pair, however, is approaching a key technical cap set by the 100-day SMA at $4,381.21, while the longer-term 200-day SMA at $4,509.67 remains a broader topside barrier. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59.21 stays in constructive territory, hinting that bullish momentum is intact but not yet overextended.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,215, followed by the 50-day SMA around $4,155, which together define a cushioning demand zone on pullbacks. On the topside, immediate resistance emerges at the 100-day SMA at $4,381, ahead of the more significant 200-day SMA near $4,510; a sustained break above these levels would reinforce the upward trend, while failure to clear $4,381 could trigger a period of consolidation above the current moving-average floor.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold holds firm as markets question Fed resolve behind rising US yieldsAnalysts at Commerzbank highlight that the gold price is "holding at around USD 4,400 per troy ounce, thereby defying the rise in oil prices and US bond yields." They argue that the latest move higher in US yields "is therefore not attributable to increased expectations of interest rate hikes, but appears to have other causes." In their view, "it could be, for instance, that the market doubts the Fed will raise interest rates sufficiently to combat inflation effectively," or is reacting to other concerns that are not directly tied to tighter policy. Commerzbank concludes that "both of these explanations would clearly be positive for gold," helping to explain the metal’s resilience despite the less supportive backdrop from nominal yields.
Fed FAQs Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Trump delays threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian goods
US-Canada deal puts Keystone XL pipeline back on the table
USD/CAD tariff tail risk materially reduced
As alluded to in a separate analysis piece released on Tuesday, one of the key headwinds overhanging USD/CAD was the status of tariff negotiations between the United States and Canada. Well, it looks like Donald Trump has brought TACO to the tariff negotiations.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the slated 50% tariffs on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods, which had been due to kick in tomorrow morning, have now been postponed for three days. More importantly, he said the two sides, subject to the finalisation of documents, “have a DEAL!”
Source: Truth Social
Of note, after repeated setbacks in trying to secure cheaper energy from the Gulf, energy infrastructure looks to be at the centre of the agreement. With talks between the United States and Iran now effectively dead, Trump appears to be looking north for another route to eventually deliver lower US energy prices. He immediately linked the tariff reprieve to the Keystone XL pipeline.
Trump approved the project during his first term, only for the Democrats to pull the plug after returning to power. Now, more than five years later, it looks like it may be back on the table.
Bullish reversal risk recedes
Source: TradingView
Having flagged bullish reversal risks a little over 24 hours ago, USD/CAD did pop higher on Tuesday, with the close roughly in line with the midpoint of Monday’s bearish candle, completing a three-candle morning star reversal pattern in the process.
However, the latest news flow immediately raises questions about the validity of that signal, with USD/CAD pulling back from minor horizontal resistance at 1.3910. The pair remains stuck in a narrow range between that level on the topside and a support zone running from 1.3870 down to the 200-day moving average at 1.3851. Those are the two immediate focal points for traders.
Given the reaction to the tariff news, the risk of a resumption of the broader bearish trend may be increasing, putting the emphasis on a potential break beneath the lower end of that support zone. If that were to occur, 1.3775 is the first level to watch, followed by a more pronounced support zone around 1.3714, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2024 to January 2025 bull move. That area has seen plenty of work over recent months, acting as resistance for lengthy periods earlier this year.
If the bullish price signal proves more prescient, the immediate focal point above 1.3910 is the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3919, where the price bounced on several occasions before breaking lower earlier this week. A break above would put horizontal resistance at 1.3967 in play, with 1.3991 another minor level overhead before the broader downtrend from the July highs comes into play.
The message from the oscillators still favours selling into strength. RSI (14) continues to trend lower and sits marginally above oversold territory at 32, while MACD confirms the message, continuing to trend lower in negative territory after crossing its signal line from above.
FOMC minutes loom
The FOMC minutes from the July meeting screen as the most likely fundamental catalyst to determine the next move in USD/CAD. With Fed tightening expectations having been pared sharply following the recent run of softer US data, traders will be watching for signs of whether the hawkish dissents seen at the meeting extended more broadly across the committee.
Trump delays threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian goods
US-Canada deal puts Keystone XL pipeline back on the table
USD/CAD tariff tail risk materially reduced
As alluded to in a separate analysis piece released on Tuesday, one of the key headwinds overhanging USD/CAD was the status of tariff negotiations between the United States and Canada. Well, it looks like Donald Trump has brought TACO to the tariff negotiations.
In a Truth Social post, Trump said the slated 50% tariffs on roughly US$20 billion of Canadian goods, which had been due to kick in tomorrow morning, have now been postponed for three days. More importantly, he said the two sides, subject to the finalisation of documents, “have a DEAL!”
Source: Truth Social
Of note, after repeated setbacks in trying to secure cheaper energy from the Gulf, energy infrastructure looks to be at the centre of the agreement. With talks between the United States and Iran now effectively dead, Trump appears to be looking north for another route to eventually deliver lower US energy prices. He immediately linked the tariff reprieve to the Keystone XL pipeline.
Trump approved the project during his first term, only for the Democrats to pull the plug after returning to power. Now, more than five years later, it looks like it may be back on the table.
Bullish reversal risk recedes
Source: TradingView
Having flagged bullish reversal risks a little over 24 hours ago, USD/CAD did pop higher on Tuesday, with the close roughly in line with the midpoint of Monday’s bearish candle, completing a three-candle morning star reversal pattern in the process.
However, the latest news flow immediately raises questions about the validity of that signal, with USD/CAD pulling back from minor horizontal resistance at 1.3910. The pair remains stuck in a narrow range between that level on the topside and a support zone running from 1.3870 down to the 200-day moving average at 1.3851. Those are the two immediate focal points for traders.
Given the reaction to the tariff news, the risk of a resumption of the broader bearish trend may be increasing, putting the emphasis on a potential break beneath the lower end of that support zone. If that were to occur, 1.3775 is the first level to watch, followed by a more pronounced support zone around 1.3714, the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the September 2024 to January 2025 bull move. That area has seen plenty of work over recent months, acting as resistance for lengthy periods earlier this year.
If the bullish price signal proves more prescient, the immediate focal point above 1.3910 is the 100-day simple moving average at 1.3919, where the price bounced on several occasions before breaking lower earlier this week. A break above would put horizontal resistance at 1.3967 in play, with 1.3991 another minor level overhead before the broader downtrend from the July highs comes into play.
The message from the oscillators still favours selling into strength. RSI (14) continues to trend lower and sits marginally above oversold territory at 32, while MACD confirms the message, continuing to trend lower in negative territory after crossing its signal line from above.
FOMC minutes loom
The FOMC minutes from the July meeting screen as the most likely fundamental catalyst to determine the next move in USD/CAD. With Fed tightening expectations having been pared sharply following the recent run of softer US data, traders will be watching for signs of whether the hawkish dissents seen at the meeting extended more broadly across the committee.
TL;DR: The Hormuz crisis is shifting from an oil-and-bond story to a broader risk-off one, with equities weakening, Copper breaking lower, and Silver losing its rebound structure — a sign its industrial-demand exposure is becoming a liability rather than an advantage.
Silver Is Starting to Feel the Other Side of the Oil Shock For several days, the Hormuz crisis was primarily an oil-and-bond story. Brent climbed, inflation fears returned, and global yields pushed higher. Now the second half of the trade is beginning to appear: equities are weakening, Copper has broken lower, and Silver is starting to lose its rebound structure.
That shift comes as the US-Iran confrontation moves beyond simple diplomatic stalemate. The June 17 ceasefire framework expired August 17 without renewal, but the formal deadline mattered less than the deterioration that followed. Another tanker was struck in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran laid out sweeping conditions for reopening the waterway, and Washington hardened its own rhetoric. More importantly, US Special Envoy for Peace Jared Kushner indicated Iran is unwilling to compromise on US demands, suggesting current talks are failing to narrow differences rather than merely moving slowly.
Brent has responded by extending its advance toward $92, with WTI around $85. But Silver’s reaction increasingly shows why this is no longer just a commodity-supply story.
Higher Oil Is Lifting Yields — and Starting to Hurt Growth Assets The bond market has taken the escalation seriously. The US 30-year yield has reached approximately 5.33%, its highest in 19 years, while the 10-year is hovering around 4.72–4.75%. Germany’s 10-year Bund has surged to around 3.27%, its highest level since 2011.
That global move gives the current shock a stagflationary character. Hormuz disruption threatens higher oil and freight costs, which keep inflation expectations elevated and reduce room for central banks to ease policy. But the resulting rise in yields also tightens financial conditions and weighs on valuations and demand.
Equities are beginning to show that pressure and have closed down for multiple sessions. The Dow slipped -0.22% overnight, the S&P 500 fell -0.69%, and the Nasdaq lost -1.33%. The Nasdaq’s larger decline is especially consistent with higher-yield pressure.
For Silver, this matters because it sits between two worlds. Gold can still benefit from monetary uncertainty and inflation concerns. Silver shares some of that support, but it also depends much more heavily on industrial demand and risk appetite. The current environment is turning that dual identity into a disadvantage.
Copper Is Giving Silver Bulls a Warning Copper offers one of the clearest cross-checks. The metal surged to a record 6.9247 in early August on structural supply-deficit optimism, but has since reversed to a two-week low. Price has fallen below the 55 4H EMA near 6.66, broken rising trend support, and slipped through the roughly 6.565 retracement area.
RSI around 33 shows momentum has weakened sharply. Some profit-taking after an all-time high is natural, but timing matters — Copper’s selloff is accelerating just as stocks retreat and bond yields climb. That’s exactly what Silver bulls don’t want to see. Copper has much less monetary support than Gold, so its weakness is a cleaner signal that investors are beginning to worry about the demand consequences of higher energy costs and tighter financial conditions.
If Copper keeps falling while Brent stays elevated, Silver’s industrial component becomes an increasingly important drag.
Gold Is Starting to Win the Metals Trade The Gold/Silver ratio is already reflecting that divergence. The correction from roughly 72.55 appears to have completed at 66.23, with the ratio now rebounding sharply toward 69.40. A firm break above 69.40 would confirm another leg higher and point to further Silver underperformance relative to Gold.
That would fit the current macro mechanism almost perfectly. Both metals face high yields, but Gold retains a cleaner monetary bid from policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk. Silver faces those same yields while also absorbing deteriorating industrial sentiment. So if the ratio breaks 69.40 at the same time Copper extends its decline, the market would be delivering two independent confirmations that Silver’s problem is becoming more than a simple short-term pullback.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Silver Silver’s 4H structure has already weakened materially. The rebound from 54.77 extended to 66.79, but price has since broken firmly below the 55 4H EMA around 63.90. The 4H MACD has also broken its rising trendline, signaling a loss of momentum that supported the recovery. This raises the risk that the move from 54.77 was only a three-wave corrective rebound that ended at 66.79.
The bigger picture supports that interpretation. The recovery was rejected below 67.99, the 38.2% retracement of the larger 89.36–54.77 decline. Silver has also fallen through the 55-day EMA near 63.71, leaving the medium-term bearish structure intact unless price can regain that area quickly. In other words, the rebound repaired momentum but never cleared the level required to demonstrate the larger downtrend had ended.
The immediate focus now shifts lower. The first important downside zone is 60.92, resistance turned support. A firm break there would substantially strengthen the view that 66.79 marked completion of the rebound, with a deeper fall then seen back to the 54.77–56.53 support zone. For bulls, the first task is recovering 63.70–63.90, where the daily and 4H moving averages converge — even that would only stabilize the near-term structure. A more meaningful invalidation requires a sustained recovery through 66.79, which would put the 67.99 retracement resistance back into play.
That gives traders a straightforward map:
Below 63.70–63.90: downside pressure dominates. Break below 60.92: the corrective-top case gains confirmation. Below 54.77: the larger bearish trend resumes. Above 66.79: the bearish rebound-completion thesis weakens materially. Key Takeaways The Hormuz crisis is broadening from an oil-and-bond story into a risk-off one, with equities, Copper, and now Silver all showing pressure. Rising global yields (US 30-year at 5.33%, German Bund at 3.27%) give the current shock a stagflationary character that’s starting to weigh on growth assets. Copper’s reversal from a record high to a two-week low offers a cleaner read on deteriorating demand sentiment than Gold, since it carries less monetary support. The Gold/Silver ratio rebounding toward 69.40 signals Silver is starting to underperform Gold as its industrial-demand exposure turns into a liability. 60.92 is the key level to watch: a break would confirm Silver’s rebound from 54.77 topped at 66.79, opening a deeper fall toward the 54.77-56.53 zone.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7854 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7905 and 6.7421 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Rising bets for a September rate hike by the BoJ are capping the recovery move of the CHF/JPY after the sharp intervention-driven slump. Current Setup and Live Chart The CHF/JPY pair is made up of two safe-haven currencies that are currently competing due to recent policy actions by Japanese financial authorities. The geopolitical risk premium has favored the Swiss Franc over the Yen, given the latter’s status as the currency of a country that depends heavily on energy imports. Switzerland, on the other hand, is not directly impacted by the oil price shock, but still benefits due to safe-haven demand that has followed the volatility in the global markets following the onset of the US-Iran war, the escalatory/de-escalatory headlines, and the current deadlock over the status of oil shipping via the closed Strait of Hormuz.
The Yen received massive support from the Bank of Japan’s FX market intervention and the hawkish tone of the statement following the recent BoJ monetary policy meeting. The statement, which expressed a stronger willingness to defend the Yen against extreme weakness, continues to weigh on the pair, as the recovery following profit-taking by Yen bulls has been relatively muted.
For CHF/JPY, this creates a tradable asymmetry: safe-haven demand from the geopolitical situation supporting the CHF, and BoJ hawkishness and intervention risk supporting the Yen. Currently, safe-haven demand in the FX market is weak; markets need a genuinely harsh deterioration on the ground to drive the kind of flight to safety seen during the global financial crisis of 2008 or the 2020 pandemic to see a huge upside in the Swiss Franc. Counteracting this is a market that seems braced for further Yen strengthening, especially if bets increase for a September BOJ rate hike.
Macro Drivers for the CHF/JPY 1) Significantly Hawkish Shift in the BOJ’s Tone
Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s tone after the BoJ’s last monetary policy meeting was decidedly hawkish. The higher probability of a BoJ rate hike, likely in September, has shifted the pair’s outlook. At 1.0%, the BoJ’s interest rate is at a 31-year high. Market expectations for a rate hike in the September 17–18 meeting have risen sharply, with the probability now at 80% in some quarters. No longer is the CHF’s safe-haven appeal the determinant of price action. Potential BoJ action now sets the tone for the pair. Interestingly, the Yen now finds itself in a reverse-carry position, as its 1% rate yield is higher than the Swiss Franc’s 0.00% yield. If rates rise again in Japan, the Yen vs the Franc becomes more attractive.
2) Intervention risk
The 29 July intervention by Japan and the US to firm the Yen from levels the BoJ now considers hurtful to the country’s economy was decisive. The BoJ’s tone a few days later at the policy meeting was even stronger. The language is clear. For now, the era of simply betting on Yen weakness may be over, especially as Japanese finance officials have indicated a strong desire to intervene again to prevent disorderly downside moves in the Yen. A sudden Yen buying spree by the BoJ as part of an intervention could produce a sharp, rapid move that could heavily impact any Swiss Franc longs.
3) The Swiss Franc’s Safe-haven Appeal
The CHF retains safe-haven appeal and remains one of the best defensive currency plays in disorderly markets. The current geopolitical risk premium keeps any downside moves in the pair constrained. If Fed expectations turn dovish and the USD declines, the Franc’s appeal as a defensive currency will rise.
CHF/JPY Near-Term Price Catalysts 1) BOJ communication: this is the pair’s main price catalyst at the moment. Commentary from BoJ officials leaning toward a September rate hike would be bearish for CHF/JPY.
2) Geopolitics: this is the current source of the CHF’s safe-haven appeal. However, the Yen is also deemed a defensive asset, but its exposure to higher oil prices dulls this effect. A significant deterioration in the Middle East geopolitical landscape would be needed to trigger a severe global risk-off episode that would significantly strengthen the Franc. However, if carry trades unwind as a result (AUD and NZD are risk-associated currencies, and their selloff would drag down other Yen crosses), the Yen could outperform the Franc and instigate a sharp CHF/JPY decline. So ultimately, the degree of geopolitical deterioration is what makes the difference between safe-haven support for the pair, or a carry trade unwinding that pushes the pair over the precipice.
3) Global bond yields: A sharp rise in global bond yields, driven by oil-price-related inflation, could boost Yen tightening expectations beyond current probability levels. This will ultimately be bearish for the pair. However, a drop in global bond yields stabilizes the bond markets, and could have a moderating impact on both the CHF and JPY. This will leave the pair firmly in the hands of monetary policy pathways in both countries, with the Yen currently having the upper hand.
CHF/JPY Technical Outlook The pair’s recovery looks set to challenge resistance at 198.36, the site of former degraded support formed by the lows of 12 February, 1 April and 1 May 2026. If this barrier is uncapped, the recent highs of 30 June and 16 July 2026 at 201.51 become the next upside target. A further advance tests the 2026 highs at 204.42.
Fig 1: CHF/JPY 4-hr chart showing key price levels (snapshot: 19 August 2026) On the flip side, a resumption of the recent selloff tests the 3 August 2026 low at 192.53, which also serves as the prior low of 5 December 2025. A further decline takes out this pivot and brings the 14 October and 5 November 2025 lows at 189.00 into the picture.
The bullish breakouts in gold and silver seen earlier this month have given way to a period of consolidation, suggesting traders are now waiting for the next catalyst to see whether the move extends or reverses.
Gold price (XAU/USD) holds steady near $4,335 after pulling back from an early-June top near $4,450 during the early Asian trading hours on Wednesday. The precious metal faced some selling pressure in the previous session as Treasury yields surged to their highest levels in decades.
Long-term borrowing costs from the US to Japan and Germany hit their highest levels in decades, undermining non-yielding gold. Thirty-year bond yields in the US hit their highest since 2007 on Tuesday, while expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could raise interest rates as early as September pushed 10-year borrowing costs to a three-decade high. In Europe, Germany’s 10-year Bund yield reached its highest since 2011, and French yields were at their highest since 2008.
Furthermore, rising energy prices on ongoing US-Iran tensions and uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz could stoke inflation worries and weigh on non-interest-bearing bullion. US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that no talks are underway or scheduled with Iran, per CNN. MarineTraffic data also showed that commercial vessel traffic through the critical Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb channels remains depressed.
“The steepening of the yield curve poses a headwind for gold, while firmer oil prices are also a factor behind today’s weakness,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
On the other hand, the run of softer US inflation data has led investors to scale back expectations of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed). This, in turn, could drag the US Dollar (USD) lower and support the USD-denominated commodity price.
Markets are now pricing in for a September quarter-point hike flipped to a near-65% chance of a hold, after softer consumer price inflation, and weaker retail sales.
Gold demand hinges on inflation hedging as rising yields pose near-term riskBNY’s strategists observe that investors “appear to prefer explicit inflation protection through gold rather than positioning for a broader reflationary upswing,” with the metal increasingly favoured as a direct hedge against rising price pressures. At the same time, they caution that “with yields moving sharply higher, the metal could struggle in the near term, unless monetary policy remains far more dovish than expected,” underscoring the delicate balance between inflation hedging demand and the headwind from higher rates.
Technical Analysis: GoldIn the daily chart, XAU/USD remains under a bearish near-term bias as price holds below the 100-day simple moving average (SMA), keeping the broader uptrend context out of reach. At the same time, spot is trading above the 20-day Bollinger middle band, suggesting a corrective bounce within a still-capped structure, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 58 points to firm but not overextended bullish momentum.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 100-day SMA near $4,385, ahead of the upper Bollinger band at roughly $4,500, where rallies would likely meet stronger supply. On the downside, immediate support comes from the 20-day Bollinger middle band around $4,210, with deeper demand parked near the lower Bollinger band at about $3,915; a daily close below the mid-band would reopen a slide toward the lower envelope, whereas a sustained break above $4,385 would be needed to soften the current bearish bias.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The EUR/JPY registers two consecutive days of gains, but on Tuesday, buyers failed to gain traction as they faced a confluence of key resistance levels near the 184.70 area. The cross-pair is poised to end the day unchanged, near its opening price of 184.69.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe cross is approaching the confluence of the 50- and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at around 184.72/73, with the 50-day SMA showing strong bullish momentum that could carry EUR/JPY past the 200-day SMA, which sits below the current spot price at 184.05.
A decisive break above the confluence of the 50- and 100-day SMAs opens the door to challenge 185.00. Once surpassed, the uptrend gains relevance, with traders eyeing the next cycle high at 187.47, the July 29 high.
On the flip side, the first support for EUR/JPY is the 200-day SMA at 184.05. Once surpassed, the next area of interest would be the May 6 swing low of 182.05, followed by the August 3 low of 179.37.
EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily
EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.03%0.06%0.08%0.16%0.30%0.43%0.18%EUR-0.03%0.04%0.06%0.13%0.26%0.40%0.15%GBP-0.06%-0.04%0.00%0.13%0.25%0.38%0.13%JPY-0.08%-0.06%0.00%0.09%0.22%0.36%0.11%CAD-0.16%-0.13%-0.13%-0.09%0.14%0.28%0.02%AUD-0.30%-0.26%-0.25%-0.22%-0.14%0.13%-0.11%NZD-0.43%-0.40%-0.38%-0.36%-0.28%-0.13%-0.24%CHF-0.18%-0.15%-0.13%-0.11%-0.02%0.11%0.24% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The GBP/JPY consolidates at familiar levels on Tuesday, virtually unchanged near 216.00, with the cross-pair seesawing within the 215.85-216.22 range, as neither buyers nor sellers are able to clear key resistance/support levels during the day.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical OutlookThe GBP/JPY is neutral to upward biased, though the last intervention between US and Japanese authorities prevented investors from opening fresh long or short bets. Bullish momentum has faded even though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bullish. Nevertheless, as it turned flat, a potential consolidation lies ahead.
Upwards, the first key resistance is 217.00, followed by a downward resistance trendline near 217.50/65. Above this area, up next is the July 9 high of the day (HOD) at 218.01.
On the flip side, a drop below the 50-day SMA at 215.56 opens the door to further downside. Below lies the 100-day SMA of 214.71, ahead of the 200-day SMA at 212.35.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%-0.07%0.18%0.16%0.05%0.26%0.03%EUR0.09%0.17%0.28%0.25%0.10%0.35%0.13%GBP0.07%-0.17%0.17%0.10%-0.07%0.18%-0.09%JPY-0.18%-0.28%-0.17%-0.01%-0.19%0.06%-0.17%CAD-0.16%-0.25%-0.10%0.01%-0.16%0.08%-0.17%AUD-0.05%-0.10%0.07%0.19%0.16%0.25%-0.01%NZD-0.26%-0.35%-0.18%-0.06%-0.08%-0.25%-0.27%CHF-0.03%-0.13%0.09%0.17%0.17%0.01%0.27% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
JPMorgan's GBP/USD exchange rate forecast falls to 1.28 by December 2026, putting Pound Sterling at the bottom of the latest consensus range. Foreign exchange analysts a JPMorgan expect the Pound to Dollar exchange rate to fall from 1.3541 to 1.28 by the end of 2026, a decline of roughly 5.5% if its forecast is realised.
Image: GBP/USD price movement over the month to 18 August 2026. The bank's end-period path puts GBP/USD at 1.31 in September, 1.28 in December, 1.29 in March 2027 and 1.28 in June 2027.
The signal therefore extends beyond one policy meeting and across 2027.
That is a conspicuously bearish destination: the Exchange Rates UK Research Currency Forecast Sentiment Survey has a fourth-quarter median of 1.3446 and a range of 1.28 to 1.40.
JPMorgan's 1.28 therefore sits at the survey floor rather than near its centre.
Image: ERUK bank forecast consensus ranges for GBP/USD across eight quarters, as of 18 August 2026. The UK rate gap is the pressure point JPMorgan's table supplies the path rather than a pair-specific explanation; Goldman Sachs offers a separate rates argument for Sterling weakness.
Goldman said its economists are calling for "no hikes this year (30bps priced), and two cuts next year, which relative to current pricing (shown below) remains a risk for GBP over the medium-term".
Such a repricing would erode Pound Sterling's carry support.
The Bank of England held Bank Rate at 3.75% on 29 July, although three of nine policymakers preferred an increase to 4%.
Lloyds said "payrolled employment has now declined in each of the past six months", with timely indicators continuing "to point to subdued labour demand". Private-pay data, it added, "provide little evidence that domestically generated inflation pressures are beginning to re-intensify".
Yet the conflict-driven energy shock means the path is not one-way.
Lloyds observed that "financial markets continue to anticipate Bank Rate moving higher over the coming months", while the policy outlook "continues to hinge largely on global developments".
It added that "a 25bp increase is not currently fully priced until the December MPC meeting, suggesting investors do not expect policymakers to respond aggressively in the near term". That timing makes JPMorgan's 1.28 destination a challenge to the current UK rate curve, not merely to spot sentiment.
That leaves the JPMorgan GBP/USD forecast as a test of which influence wins: weaker domestic labour conditions or another inflation impulse from energy.
If rate expectations are repriced towards Goldman's path, 1.28 becomes easier to defend; if the Bank tightens, the survey's higher Sterling outcomes remain live.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Central bank gold buying was one of the pillars supporting the gold bull market last year, and it has continued to bolster the market even as it faced significant headwinds due to expectations of a higher interest rate environment.
But why are central banks piling into gold even as they minimize their exposure to the dollar?
There are four key reasons.
Geopolitical riskThe weaponization of the dollar.Worries about the U.S.’s deteriorating fiscal situation.Regime uncertaintyIn an op-ed published by Reuters, financial journalist Jamie McGeever said that none of these events on their own would necessarily spark the current revival in gold.
“But throw them all together, and it’s a pretty compelling checklist. Especially for central banks, which had already started to ramp up their purchases in the second quarter after a lackluster first quarter.”
McGeever is referring to the resurgence of central bank gold buying in the second quarter of this year. Facing price pressure in Q1, central bank purchases slowed, but things started picking up in April. Central banks bought 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, nearly five times more than the Q1 total.
Following is an overview of these four factors and why they're incentivizing gold accumulation and de-dollarization.
Geopolitical riskThe war between the U.S. and Iran has had an oversized impact on the markets. After a brief safe-haven bid at the outset of hostilities, gold sold off and has traded sideways due to the oil price shock and worry that higher inflation will mean higher interest rates.
And the war is starting to look like a problem that won’t go away. McGeever called it “an unnerving geopolitical and policy backdrop that has reminded the world of gold’s underlying appeal.”
“Hopes of a peace ‘deal ’-however unsatisfactory that deal might be - are evaporating. U.S. President Donald Trump’s off-ramp ahead of November’s midterm elections is narrowing. Escalation or capitulation is not the only choice Trump faces, but it is a black-and-white scenario some analysts are now beginning to contemplate.”
As expectations for a Fed rate hike fade, gold’s safe-haven appeal is growing in this uncertain environment.
Dollar weaponizationWhen the world sees the U.S. moving aggressively on the world stage, it increases worries about the weaponization of the dollar.
After Russia invaded Ukraine, the U.S. and its Western allies aggressively sanctioned Russia, effectively cutting the Russians off from the global financial system.
Other countries sat up and took notice.
While it may make sense from a Western foreign policy perspective, it has made many countries wary and sped up efforts to minimize dependence on the greenback. After all, if you have something that can be leveraged against you, it’s only natural to try to minimize your exposure to that thing. If the U.S. can pull the dollar rug out from under you, why not try to get that rug out of the room?
This is one of the primary dynamics driving central bank gold accumulation.
Notably, they are decreasing their exposure to dollars at the same time. Earlier this year, the European Central Bank confirmed gold has surpassed Treasuries as the top reserve asset.
US fiscal malfeasanceThe national debt is only a few billion dollars away from $40 trillion. Meanwhile, federal spending keeps speeding up. The U.S. ran the biggest monthly budget deficit in five years last month.
The world has financed America’s spending spree for decades, but it might be getting wary of loaning Uncle Sam money. Treasury yields have been pushing higher in what some analysts believe is the beginning of a secular bear market in bonds.
McGeever pointed out that yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note have climbed to their highest level in 18 months. Meanwhile, yields on 30-year bonds and 30-year inflation-protected bonds are at their highest since 2007 and 2008, respectively.
This indicates a sagging demand for U.S. debt.
Economist Phil Suttle explained the ramifications.
“The U.S. is now in a phase where its global seigniorage benefits of supplying the world’s reserve currency have now been exhausted; the next phase (which may already be underway) is what happens when the foreign official holders of your liabilities become more antsy about holding them.”
Regime uncertaintyMarkets are forward-looking. They don’t function very well when the future gets hazy.
For an economy to operate at peak efficiency, market participants need to be able to anticipate future developments. They need stability in policy and regulation.
We have none of that today.
The tariff situation is a prime example. Nobody knows what the tariff landscape will look like next month, much less a year from now. How does one plan for the unknown?
Meanwhile, many people on the international stage question Federal Reserve independence. They worry that pressure from the administration could drive monetary policy. It’s a legitimate concern because Fed independence is a myth.
While new Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has talked a good game on tackling inflation, he hasn’t actually done anything. This is causing the markets to question his commitment to reining in inflation.
McGeever noted that it also appears Trump is in Warsh’s year.
“Media reports suggest Trump has repeatedly called Warsh since his appointment, and Trump has revived his attempts to fire Governor Lisa Cook. All this has unnerved the bond market.”
All these factors are driving central bank gold buying. BNY analysts say they should also incentivize renewed investor interest, especially with the price below all-time highs.
“Gold is not a pure Fed signal, but persistent official-sector demand and renewed investor interest are reinforcing the value of inflation, currency and geopolitical hedges.”
McGeever argued that this is a setup for a long-term gold bull run.
“As confidence in the world’s reserve assets frays, gold’s allure is unlikely to dim.”
Despite gold's sideways price performance and increased volatility, Chinese gold demand remained generally stable in July.
China ranks as the world’s biggest gold market.
The gold price in yuan was virtually unchanged in July. According to the World Gold Council's gold return attribution model, a weaker dollar and improved investor positioning supported the yellow metal, while rising yields continued to create headwinds.
Chinese gold demand has been bifurcated, with resilient investor buying and a struggling jewelry sector.
Withdrawals from the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) fell by 8 percent in July, dipping to 80 tonnes. Banks, jewelers, and refiners pull gold from the SGE, and the volume provides a snapshot of wholesale gold demand in China.
The World Gold Council described wholesale demand as “tepid,” but noted that the decline was “largely seasonal.”
“The jewelry sector is typically tepid in Q2 and early Q3.”
The WGC said data indicates that physical gold investment demand was “broadly unchanged” from June and failed to offset the decline in jewelry demand due to high prices.
Year-on-year, SGE withdrawals are down 15 percent, reflecting a softer jewelry market and a higher gold price. They are also coming off extremely high demand numbers from last year.
ETF flows indicated a modest resurgence in investment demand in July.
Five tonnes of gold flowed into Chinese gold-backed funds last month. That pushed ETF assets under management (AUM) up 3 percent to ¥250 billion ($37 billion).
ETFs are a convenient way for investors to play the gold market, but owning ETF shares is not the same as holding physical gold.
According to the World Gold Council, investment interest was buoyed by several factors.
“Recurring geopolitical uncertainty, weaker equities, and persistent gold accumulation by the PBoC. Meanwhile, rising institutional investor participation as the gold price stabilized also supported demand in the month.”
In another sign of bullish sentiment, net longs on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 24 tonnes to 117 tonnes at the end of July.
Meanwhile, Chinese gold imports rose to a two-year high in June as lower prices sparked a resurgence in demand.
Looking ahead, World Gold Council analysts said investment demand will likely improve if the price continues to break higher. Wholesale demand could also get a boost from seasonal jewelry inventory replenishment.
However, there are some potential headwinds if the domestic equity rebound that started earlier in August persists.
To receive free commentary and analysis on the gold and silver markets, click here to be added to the Money Metals news service.
$4,311 Defines Downside Risk Last week’s higher swing low at $4,311 is key support since a decline below it puts gold in a position to possibly test lower support levels. Several potential support areas stand out if a deeper pullback occurs. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is at $4,273 and supported by an uptrend line. A bullish reversal signal occurred during the recent advance above the lower swing high of $4,203 from early July, and it now may represent support. Then there is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior advance at $4,167. These levels provide progressively lower areas where buyers could attempt to regain control if $4,311 fails.
200-Day Moving Average Holds Bigger Clue The current advance is the first notable pullback to test the 200-day moving average as resistance since gold broke below it in early June. Therefore, signs of resistance are anticipated on the first approach. However, given the signs of sustained strength in the current rally, there is also the possibility that the 200-day moving average is reclaimed. There has been only one leg up from the recent bottom so far, and a measured move for a second leg up before a notable pullback would suggest a target clearly above the 200-day moving average. That possibility keeps the bullish case alive despite Tuesday’s reversal, making $4,311 the key level to watch as the consolidation resolves.
As the week unfolds, gold dynamics have been defined by prolonged consolidation. Over the last 5 sessions, XAU/USD has barely registered an average variation of 1.00%, lacking clear direction and cementing a strong neutral bias. This behavior contrasts with previous weeks, where the precious metal saw swings exceeding 3.00%. This new sideways phase is largely due to the ceiling gold has hit amid sustained bond market behavior and the wait for the Federal Reserve minutes, which could impact its substitute markets. Unless a heavier fundamental catalyst emerges, this indecision is likely to continue dominating price action in the short term.
What to Expect from the Federal Reserve Minutes?
Tomorrow, the US central bank will release its meeting minutes, an event where the market will look for details on the latest policy discussions. Investors will closely scrutinize whether several members considered raising interest rates or just how concerned the Fed is about inflationary pressures stemming from energy prices.
Currently, the CMEGROUP probability tool reflects a 65% chance that the benchmark rate will hold steady at 3.75% during the September 16 decision. Furthermore, there is over a 50% probability that this same pause scenario will repeat at the late-October meeting. This suggests the market is pricing in a cautious Federal Reserve in the near term. However, this expectation could shift if the minutes reveal heightened concerns over inflation and if a significant number of members lean toward evaluating future rate hikes.
Source: CMEGROUP
This event is crucial for the US 10-year Treasury bond market, one of the main substitute assets for gold. Despite expectations of a monetary pause, yields remain above the 4.7% zone, near their 2026 highs, cementing the appeal of these instruments over the precious metal.
Source: TradingEconomics
In this context, the minutes will be decisive for both fixed income and the US dollar. If the document opens the door to a more hawkish Fed, both markets could gain traction. A strengthening of these alternative assets would diminish gold's appeal as a safe haven, which could stall the recovery attempts seen in recent weeks and trigger a potential drop in short-term demand.
In fact, activity in the gold market has already started to cool off in the sessions leading up to the release. Trading volume for metal futures on August 17 stood at 141,000 contracts, a figure far below the more than 200,000 daily contracts seen earlier in the month. This sustained drop in volume reflects investor caution ahead of potential central bank signals and suggests a lack of appetite for the asset while the monetary outlook remains up in the air.
Source: CMEGROUP
With this in mind, gold is likely to remain capped by expectations surrounding its substitute markets, maintaining its neutral stance in the near term. However, if the minutes confirm a more restrictive tone and bonds and the dollar gain traction, fresh selling pressure could be unleashed on XAU/USD over the coming weeks.
Gold Technical Outlook
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Bullish momentum faces a slowdown: Average gold price action reflects a clear phase of indecision. Rather than attempting to form a new uptrend line, the price is currently consolidating. As long as key levels remain unbroken, this sideways range could cement itself as the dominant structure in the upcoming sessions.
RSI: The RSI line shows noticeable flattening behavior, reflecting a loss of momentum from the bullish bias seen in previous sessions. If this behavior persists, the indicator will confirm the neutral phase currently dominating the market.
MACD: The MACD histogram remains near the neutral 0 line, suggesting that short-term moving average momentum is in balance. This technical reading reinforces the expectation that indecision could remain a primary factor for gold.
Key Levels to Watch:
$4,500 (Crucial Resistance): A major bullish barrier aligning with the 200-period simple moving average. A sustained close above this level could mark a structural shift on the chart and pave the way for a more prominent bullish bias in the coming sessions.
$4,378 (Nearby Barrier): The current neutral zone where price action has stalled over the last two weeks. It acts as a key retracement level; if the price fails to break cleanly away from this area, sideways trading could extend in the short term.
$3,984 (Critical Support): Matches the 2026 lows and stands as the chart's most important support level. A drop to this level could reignite a bearish bias and breathe new life into the downtrend line that dominated the technical structure for weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
The USD/CHF pair recovers some ground on Tuesday after testing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 0.7866 along with the bottom trendline of the ‘bearish flag’, which so far contained price action amid the lack of conviction of buyers and sellers, regarding the trend’s direction. The pair trades at 0.7960, near the day's highs, up 0.82%.
Per market structure, USD/CHF is neutral to upward-biased, with momentum favoring buyers, as depicted by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is above its 50 neutral level and trending higher.
For a bullish continuation, the USD/CHF must surpass August’s 17 high of 0.8135. Once cleared, it opens the path to challenge the top trendline of the ‘bearish flag'. A breach of the latter will negate the ‘bearish’ chart pattern and pave the way towards 0.8200, followed by the yearly high of 0.8207.
On the downside, if USD/CHF fails to clear 0.8135 and finishes the session below 0.8100, this could exacerbate a move to the 50-day SMA at 0.8084. A move beneath clears the path to the July 30 swing low of 0.8049, ahead of 0.8000.
Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
USD/CAD is attempting to extend its recovery on Tuesday as traders look beyond Canada’s hotter July inflation report and turn their attention to an increasingly important US-Canada trade deadline. The pair was trading around 1.3897 at the time of writing, having recovered from a recent low near 1.3850. The rebound puts the psychological 1.3900 level back in focus after USD/CAD spent much of August under selling pressure.
The Canadian dollar initially benefited from Monday’s inflation figures, but that support has faded as investors assess whether the increase in headline CPI is enough to materially alter the Bank of Canada interest rate outlook. More importantly, currency markets are now preparing for Wednesday’s deadline for potentially steep US tariffs on Canadian goods, making trade policy a significant near-term risk for the loonie.
Canada CPI Hits 3.0%, but Core Inflation Tells a Different Story Canada’s annual inflation rate accelerated to 3.0% in July from 2.8% in June, reaching the upper end of the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% inflation-control range. The increase was largely driven by gasoline prices, which jumped 25.7% year over year, while higher travel costs also contributed to the rise. On a monthly basis, CPI increased 0.5%. However, the underlying inflation picture was considerably less concerning.
The Bank of Canada’s closely watched CPI-trim measure stood at 1.9%, while CPI-median was 2.0%. Inflation excluding food and energy was also 1.9%, suggesting the acceleration in headline prices has not yet developed into broad-based inflationary pressure.
That distinction matters for the Canadian dollar outlook. A headline CPI reading of 3.0% would normally strengthen expectations for tighter monetary policy and potentially support the loonie. However, contained core inflation gives the Bank of Canada more room to wait before making its next move, particularly while the economy faces substantial uncertainty from US trade policy.
As a result, Monday’s inflation report has not been enough to prevent USD/CAD from recovering.
US-Canada Tariff Deadline Becomes the Next USD/CAD Catalyst Attention has now shifted firmly toward trade negotiations between Washington and Ottawa. The United States has threatened to impose 50% tariffs on roughly $20 billion of Canadian imports beginning Wednesday, representing a potentially significant escalation in the trade dispute between the two countries.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney spoke with US President Donald Trump on Tuesday as officials continued last-minute negotiations aimed at preventing the tariffs from taking effect. However, significant disagreements remain, particularly around automobiles and existing US tariffs on Canadian goods. For USD/CAD, the outcome could overshadow Monday’s inflation data.
A last-minute agreement, postponement or softer tariff framework could remove an important source of uncertainty for the Canadian economy and potentially strengthen the loonie. Conversely, implementation of the proposed 50% tariffs could raise concerns about Canadian exports, business investment and economic growth. That makes Wednesday’s deadline a potential volatility event for the USD/CAD exchange rate.
USD/CAD Technical Analysis: 1.3900 Back in Focus The four-hour chart shows USD/CAD attempting to recover after its prolonged decline from the July highs. The pair recently found support around 1.3850, before rebounding to approximately 1.3897. Price has also moved back above the 20-period Bollinger Band moving average near 1.3885, providing an early indication that short-term momentum is improving.
The MACD reinforces that recovery signal. Although both the MACD and signal lines remain below zero, the MACD line has crossed above its signal line and the histogram has turned positive. This suggests bearish momentum is weakening after the recent selloff.
Immediate resistance sits around 1.3900, followed by the upper Bollinger Band near 1.3932. A sustained move above 1.3930 could strengthen the rebound and expose the previous resistance zone around 1.3950.
On the downside, 1.3850 remains the key support level, closely followed by the lower Bollinger Band around 1.3838. A break below this region would restore the bearish structure and increase the risk of another leg lower.
USD/CAD Outlook: Can the Canadian Dollar Resume Its Rally? Despite Tuesday’s rebound, the broader USD/CAD price trend remains bearish, with the pair having fallen substantially from levels above 1.4100 in late July. For buyers, reclaiming 1.3930 to 1.3950 would provide stronger evidence that the current move is developing into something more than a short-term correction.
For sellers, failure to establish a sustained break above 1.3900 would leave the recent 1.3850 support vulnerable to another test. The tariff deadline may ultimately decide which side gains control. With Canada’s CPI report now behind the market, US-Canada trade negotiations have become the most immediate catalyst for the USD/CAD price forecast, and Wednesday could determine whether the pair extends its recovery or resumes the broader decline.
Why is USD/CAD rising today?
USD/CAD is rebounding toward 1.3900 as the Canadian dollar loses some of the support it received from Canada’s July inflation report. Traders are also positioning ahead of the US-Canada tariff deadline, which could have significant implications for the Canadian economic outlook.
How did Canada’s CPI affect the Canadian dollar?
Canada’s July headline CPI accelerated to 3.0% year over year from 2.8% in June. However, underlying inflation measures remained considerably softer, limiting expectations that the Bank of Canada will need to respond aggressively to the headline increase.
What could move USD/CAD next?
The US-Canada tariff deadline is the main near-term catalyst. Any agreement, postponement or escalation in tariffs could trigger volatility in the Canadian dollar and USD/CAD. Traders will also continue monitoring oil prices, US economic data and Bank of Canada interest rate expectations.
Daily October Brent Crude Oil Futures Brent crude moved above $91 a barrel Tuesday, its strongest level since late July. WTI also pushed higher. The ceasefire arrangement has ended. Iran has threatened a more offensive posture. The Strait of Hormuz remains restricted and Washington is not extending the deal.
The Middle East risk can put a protective bid under precious metals on the breaks. Tuesday’s trade showed the other side. Higher crude is feeding into inflation expectations and giving bond sellers another reason to hold the long end at these levels. Gasoline remains above $4 per gallon and the next round of price data has a better chance of capturing the recent move in energy costs. The inflation side of the oil trade won on Tuesday.
FOMC Minutes and Jackson Hole Are Keeping Buyers on the Sideline Wednesday’s minutes from the July meeting land with three officials already on record voting for a quarter-point increase. The market cut September hike odds sharply over the past week on softer data. The minutes tell you whether that repricing went too far. Jackson Hole follows next week with policymakers sitting between weaker growth numbers and crude above $91. Silver just reversed $3 off its session high, and neither event is offering buyers a reason to step back in ahead of the data.
What to Watch The 30-year yield at 5.31% is doing the damage. The front end can price a September hold all it wants. Silver is trading the long bond, and the long bond is trading deficits, debt supply and inflation that has not come back to target. Crude above $91 is making that worse by feeding the energy cost story into every forward inflation estimate.
Silver reversed $3 off its session high and is sitting just above a swing bottom that changes the minor trend if it breaks. The 50-day moving average is not far below. FOMC minutes Wednesday and Jackson Hole next week are the events that can reset the rate debate. Until the long bond stops overriding the front end, silver rallies are selling opportunities.
Ballooning government deficits haven't been much of a problem over the past 15 years but they're suddenly threatening to unsettle several markets. With long-term US yields already at 19-year highs and Japanese, French and German yields already at highs, this is more of a global issue.
Gold (XAU/USD) retreats on Tuesday as US Treasury yields keep their momentum, while energy prices rise further amid a lack of progress in talks between the US and Iran. XAU/USD trades at $4,364, down over 1.10%.
XAU/USD falls as high yields and Oil risks pressure bullionThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck’s value against a basket of six currencies, is flat at 99.60. The US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen by more than 1 basis point to 4.712%. Worth noting that US Treasury yields hit their highest levels since 2007, earlier in the session, a headwind for Gold, which bears no interest.
A de-escalation of the conflict seems far from happening after US President Donald Trump said that Iran is unlikely to accept Washington's terms to end hostilities. Meanwhile, Iran is adopting an offensive stance, adding that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed if Washington doesn’t accept their terms.
Oil prices remained underpinned by uncertainty in the Middle East, which favors a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike. A weaker-than-expected jobs report and inflation data edging lower forced investors to price out rate hikes in 2026.
Data-wise, US Housing Starts in July fell 12.4% MoM, from June’s 1.415 million to 1.239 million, due to higher mortgage rates, which have spiked since the beginning of the Middle East conflict, and elevated home prices. At the same time, the Federal Reserve reported that Industrial Production for July dipped from the expected 0.3% to 0.2% MoM.
Investors are currently awaiting Wednesday's release of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting minutes for insights into the expected path of future interest rates.
XAU/USD technical analysis: Gold fell below 100-day SMA, eyes on $4,200Gold prices are once more below the $4,400 mark and fell under the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $4,384. Bullish momentum seems to be fading as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) dips lower, an indication that sellers are stepping in.
If XAU/USD dives beneath $4,350, expect a test of $4,300, followed by a drop to the July 6 high at $4,202, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,146 and $4,100.
For a bullish resumption, the first resistance is the $4,400 mark. Up next lies the $4,450 psychological level, followed by the $4,500 milestone.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver (XAG/USD) edges lower on Tuesday, remaining confined within a week-old trading range as bullish momentum softens following the recent rally. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades around $63.96, down 2.77% on the day.
Buyers appear reluctant to chase the metal higher as uncertainty around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy path keeps sentiment cautious. Recent weak US economic data have reduced expectations of an imminent Fed rate hike and helped XAG/USD rebound from near $55 at the start of the month.
However, the energy shock caused by tensions in the Middle East keeps inflation risks alive and leaves the possibility of a rate increase later this year on the table. The prospect of higher interest rates weighs on Silver by increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.
Technical Analysis
On the daily chart, XAG/USD retains a mild bullish bias while holding above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $61.28 and several key Fibonacci support levels.
However, momentum indicators point to consolidation. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 55 is easing toward neutral, while the fading green bars on the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram suggest weakening bullish momentum. The Average Directional Index (ADX) near 26 indicates moderate trend strength.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at $62.89, followed by the 50% level at $61.68 converging with the 50-day SMA at $61.28 to form a key demand zone. Below there, the 61.8% retracement at $60.47 and the 78.6% level at $58.76 mark subsequent floors that would come into play on a deeper corrective pullback.
On the topside, a daily close above the 23.6% retracement at $64.38 would open the way toward the structural high at $66.80, with further advances likely to test the 100-day SMA at $68.66 before any challenge of the 200-day SMA at $71.81.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Sterling is pressing to fresh multi-month highs after an outside-week reversal reignited the recovery from the July pullback. The advance has carried GBP/USD back toward a dense technical resistance zone where both price and momentum are approaching important inflection thresholds.
The Pound Sterling steadies on Tuesday as geopolitical tensions rise in the Middle East, while housing data misses estimates and US Industrial Production decelerates. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3547. Read More...
British Pound trades lower against US Dollar after soft UK employment dataThe British Pound (GBP) is down 0.1% to near 1.3530 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The British currency comes under pressure after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) employment data for three months ending June. Read More...
British Pound dips to fresh lows near 1.3520 after mixed UK employment dataThe British Pound (GBP) extends its reversal against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as June’s UK unemployment data fails to convince investors in an already risk-off market, as tensions in the Middle East rise. The GBP/USD trades at 1.3522 at the time of writing, following rejection at the 1.3570 area on Monday. Read More...
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is edging lower on Tuesday. The main trend is up, but traders are struggling to take out $4449.83 to reaffirm the uptrend. The trend will turn down on a move through the last swing bottom at $4311.04.
The long-term range is the April 17 main top at $4891.54 and the June 30 main bottom at $3942.10. Its 50% level at $4416.82 has been providing resistance for six straight sessions. Additional resistance is the 200-day moving average at $4507.45. The longer-term bulls are hoping for a breakout over this indicator in order to draw in the institutions.
The short-term range is $3942.10 to $4449.83. If the trend changes to down then its retracement zone at $4195.96 to $4136.05 along with the 50-day moving average at $4150.57 will become the primary target zone.
What to Watch The long bond is running this trade. Gold has the softer dollar and the lower hike odds and neither one has been enough to push through six sessions of resistance. Crude back above $91 is feeding the same fiscal and inflation story that has the 30-year at a 19-year high. FOMC minutes Wednesday can either confirm that the three July dissenters were alone or show the committee is more worried than the vote suggested.
Gold is stuck between a front end that favors buyers and a long end that will not let them through. The 200-day overhead is where the trade changes. The swing bottom below is where it breaks. The bond market picks the direction.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
