Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to return to 0.7000 amid firm US Dollar

Pound-New Zealand Dollar could stay elevated if risk appetite remains weak, although stronger NZ business confidence may offer the Kiwi some support.
The Pound New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate hit a fresh ten-year high on Monday as Sterling continued to attract support.

At the time of writing, GBP/NZD traded at NZ$2.3647, up almost 0.3% on the day.

Latest — Exchange Rates:

Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.362863 (+0.20%)

Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 2.004679 (+0.03%)

New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.559005 (-0.43%)

DAILY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) continued to attract support at the start of this week, following last week’s impressive gains.

The recent upward revision to UK GDP growth in the second quarter, increased bets on a Bank of England (BoE) interest rate hike in November, and hopes of closer UK-EU ties following the Labour conference last week all continued to provide the Pound with support.

In addition, the UK’s finalised services PMI on Monday was revised slightly higher. The PMI printed at 52.1 in September, still down from August’s 52.5 but above the preliminary estimate of 51.7. While the upward revision was modest, it helped keep Sterling’s momentum alive.

Meanwhile, the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar (NZD) struggled as this week’s session began, with a gloomy market mood weighing on NZD demand.

Investors remained concerned about high global energy prices and the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.

Activity in the Strait of Hormuz came to a near standstill on Monday, following attacks near the vital waterway over the weekend.

Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: NZ Business Confidence to Support the ‘Kiwi’?
Looking ahead, the NZ Institute of Economic Research will publish its latest business confidence survey on Monday night. A forecast improvement in the third quarter could lend the ‘Kiwi’ support during Tuesday’s Asian session and into European trade.

Economic data then thins out, likely leaving GBP/NZD to be driven by market risk dynamics. Any shifts in sentiment could drive volatility. Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and US-Iran war news could determine the market mood.

Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.

Gold weakens as high Treasury yields outweigh easing Fed hike bets

Gold hits two-month low as bears await break below $4,100 amid sustained USD strength

AUD/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 110.00, while bearish technical bias persists

TL;DR: USD/CAD has rallied from 1.3730 to 1.4292, stalling right at the 61.8% retracement (1.4290) of the 1.4791–1.3480 decline, with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s Canadian jobs report now standing directly in front of the next directional break.

USD/CAD Reaches a Major Medium-Term Barrier USD/CAD has rallied strongly over the past month and is now testing a technically important level. The pair advanced from 1.3730 to 1.4292, clearing the June high at 1.4247 before stalling around the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4791 to 1.3480 decline at 1.4290.

That makes the next move consequential. A firm break above 1.4290/1.4292 would argue that the rally from 1.3480 is extending into a larger medium-term advance, with 1.4497 as the next projection target and the 1.4791 high potentially coming back into view. Momentum is stretched, but there is still no clear evidence that a top has formed.

Two events now sit directly in front of this technical test: Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s Canadian employment report.

Rates, Not Oil, Drove the Rally The rise in USD/CAD has been primarily a Dollar and yield-differential story, rather than an oil story. Brent remains around $100, yet the Canadian Dollar has received little support from elevated crude prices.

Instead, US yields have risen much more sharply than Canadian yields. The US 10-year is around 5.32%, compared with roughly 3.95% for Canada. Based on the one-month yield moves, the differential has widened from about 97bp to 137bp, with roughly 56bp of the increase coming from the US side versus around 16bp in Canada.

There is an important nuance in the latest US move. Over the past week, the US 2-year yield has fallen by around 9bp while the 10-year has risen by roughly 9bp. That steepening suggests the latest rise in long yields reflects term-premium pressure more than renewed near-term Fed hike pricing.

FOMC Minutes: More Likely to Drive Volatility Than Rewrite the Trend The Fed held rates at 3.75–4.00% in September, while the median dot sits around 4.1%. Markets, however, are pricing a considerably higher eventual path, at roughly 4.70% by late 2027. October hike odds are only around 18–19%, following weak September payrolls and softer wage growth. That creates an asymmetric setup for Wednesday’s minutes.

A hawkish tone would mostly reinforce what markets already expect: inflation remains a concern and further tightening is still possible. The larger surprise would be a more restrained message consistent with one more hike followed by a pause. Given how much tightening is already embedded farther out in the curve, that could pull US yields lower and provide the cleaner catalyst for a USD/CAD retreat.

The minutes are also backward-looking. They cover the September 15–16 meeting, before markets absorbed the subsequent deterioration in US employment data. Their ability to change the trend may therefore be limited unless they materially alter expectations for the eventual policy plateau.

Canada Jobs Could Decide Whether 1.4290 Breaks Friday’s Canadian employment report may provide the more direct test of the Canadian Dollar. August employment fell 41.7k, wage growth slowed to 2.0%, and unemployment held at 6.4%. Consensus for September is around +6k, with unemployment expected to rise to 6.5%.

The Labour Force Survey is volatile, so a rebound following August’s decline would not be surprising. That makes the result particularly important around current technical resistance.

Another negative employment print combined with unemployment at 6.6% or above would strengthen the case for a sustained break above 1.4290. A much stronger outcome, around +30k or more with unemployment near 6.3%, would provide a clearer catalyst for Canadian Dollar recovery and increase the risk of a USD/CAD pullback. A result close to consensus would leave the pair caught between 1.4290 and 1.4200, with US yields likely to remain the dominant driver. ActionForex’s Technical View on USD/CAD The daily chart is stretched. RSI is near 78, but daily MACD remains positive and has not produced a clear bearish divergence. That argues against treating overbought conditions alone as evidence of a reversal.

The H4 chart is more cautious. MACD has developed bearish divergence, showing that upside momentum is fading as price tests 1.4290/1.4292.

The first meaningful downside confirmation would be a sustained break or H4 close below 1.4200. That would suggest a short-term top has formed at 1.4292 and bring a pull-back to the 55-period H4 EMA, currently around 1.4179, and below. A deeper pullback could then extend toward 1.4077, the 38.2% retracement of the 1.3730 to 1.4292 rally. Strong support is expected from there to contain downside and set the range for consolidation, forming the base for another leg up at a later stage.

Meanwhile, a firm break of 1.4290/1.4292 will extend the recent rise to the 100% projection of 1.3480 to 1.4247 from 1.3730 at 1.4497. Clearing 1.4290 cleanly will also set the stage for a retest of the 1.4791 high in the medium term.

Level Significance 1.4290/1.4292 61.8% retracement and breakout trigger 1.4497 Next upside projection 1.4200 First short-term topping trigger 1.4077 Key corrective support 1.4791 Medium-term upside reference Minutes First, Jobs Second The bias remains upward while USD/CAD holds above 1.4200, but the pair is now testing a level important enough to demand confirmation in either direction.

A firm break above 1.4290/1.4292 would extend the rally toward 1.4497 and strengthen the medium-term case for a retest of 1.4791. A sustained break below 1.4200 would instead confirm that momentum has finally rolled over and open a corrective move toward 1.4077.

The FOMC minutes test the Dollar side first. Canada’s jobs report then tests the Canadian side. USD/CAD is stretched, but not yet topping. The next confirmed break decides whether the rally accelerates or finally consolidates.

Key Takeaways USD/CAD is testing 1.4290/1.4292, the 61.8% retracement of the 1.4791–1.3480 decline, after rallying from 1.3730 largely on a widening US-Canada yield differential rather than oil. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes cover a meeting that predates the recent weak US jobs data; a more restrained tone than markets currently price offers the cleaner catalyst for a pullback. Friday’s Canadian employment report is the more direct test of the Loonie—a weak print (unemployment at 6.6%+) favors a break above 1.4290, while a strong rebound (+30k or more) favors a pullback. H4 momentum shows bearish divergence even as the daily chart stays constructive, making a close below 1.4200 the key signal that a short-term top has formed. A firm break above 1.4290/1.4292 opens 1.4497 and keeps a retest of the 1.4791 high in play; a break below 1.4200 opens a corrective move toward 1.4077.

ActionForex

ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.

$4,100: For how long can Gold defend that level?

Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD falls to near $60.50 as US Treasury yields rise

Gold remains under pressure as bearish momentum builds and futures traders trim long exposure. With prices now within striking distance of 4,000, bears may remain in control near term, although the major psychological level could prove difficult to break and provide the foundation for a rebound.

View related analysis:

British Pound Outlook: GBP Recovery Mixed as BOE Hike Bets Rise
Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Bears to Face Near-Term Reprieve?
Tankan Backs BOJ Tightening, but Yen Rate Expectations Ease
AUD/USD Q4 Outlook: RBA and Fed Hikes Set the Tone

Gold Bears Eye 4,000 as Futures Sentiment Weakens
Gold Futures (GC) Positioning | COT Report
While traders remain net-long on the CME gold futures market, their confidence is waning. Both large speculators and managed funds have trimmed their longs over the past five weeks, though not by an aggressive amount. However, managed funds increased their gross shorts last week, while large specs have done so for the past two. Again, only by marginal amounts, but it shows a shift in sentiment towards the gold market.

Options traders have also increased their bearish view slightly, with risk reversals moving increasingly below zero to show demand for puts outnumbering demand for calls. These are not grisly levels of bearishness, and that may be because 4,000 is a big level to break. And one I suspect will hold initially and prompt a countertrend bounce over the near term.

Source: CFTC (COT), COMEX, LSEG

Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis
A closer look at the weekly chart shows bearish momentum increased last week, with gold now trading less than a typical week’s range from 4,000. That puts the level within striking distance, although such a big round number could prove difficult to break cleanly and potentially trigger a volatile shakeout before a countertrend bounce.

The US dollar probably needs to stop accelerating before we can assume a meaningful low for gold. While DXY momentum still points higher, it formed a shooting star below 102 to hint at early signs of fatigue. So perhaps gold’s latest leg lower is nearing its end.

The daily chart remains bearish overall after Thursday’s outside day, although prices are holding above last week’s low. The 4,200 area could be reclaimed over the near term, but bears may look to fade rallies towards the monthly pivot near 4,300 and the 200-day EMA at 4,331.8. On the downside, note the high-volume node (HVN) at 4,082 and the 4,100 handle as potential support ahead of 4,000.

Ultimately, my bias is for bears to fade rallies towards 4,000, where gold seems more likely to find support and stage a decent rebound. That would also allow time for the US dollar to form a near-term top and provide gold with some breathing room.

Source: COMEX, TradingView

Gold and Silver bounce — But the bond market still holds the reins

Debasement trade supporting Gold even as yields spike

Mexican Peso builds winning streak as USD/MXN drifts toward 18.00

Gold stalls below $4,150 as rising US yields offset Fed relief

Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD slides as France fiscal shock lifts the US Dollar

EUR/CHF Price Forecast: 100-day SMA limits immediate downside

Euro: Fiscal stress and fewer ECB hikes weigh against US Dollar – BBH

Gold ticked higher on Monday, enjoying slight support from fading expectations for Fed rate hike in October, though attempts to recover Friday’s post-NFP losses were so far limited.

The price remains on the lower side of near-term consolidation range above new multi-week low (contained by Fibo 76.4% of $3942/$4697), with limited upticks holding below trendline resistance and signaling that larger downtrend remains in play.

Daily studies remain in full bearish configuration that for now favors bearish continuation (after the end of current consolidation phase), with break of $4120 (Fibo) and $4100 (round figure) needed to confirm negative signal and unmask key $4000 support.

Alternatively, sustained break of bear- trendline ($4211) would ease downside pressure, while lift above congestion top ($4225) will be required to confirm initial reversal signal and shift near-term focus up.
Res: 4170; 4211; 4225; 4274
Sup: 4120; 4100; 4021; 4000

Windsor Brokers Ltdhttp://www.windsorbrokers.com/

The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.

Euro falls back below 1.1200 as US Dollar dominates despite weaker ISM Services PMI

Gold failed to rally on the weakest jobs data in months: 2 analysts disagree on what that means

Euro: Debt contagion fears weigh on EUR against US Dollar – Societe Generale

French Risk Has Brought the Euro to the Line; 1.1185 Decides Whether the Downtrend Accelerates What’s happening: EUR/USD fell to around 1.1160, its lowest since May 2025, before recovering to 1.12. French fiscal and political risk is the dominant Euro-specific pressure, while Spain’s snap election on November 29 has added a headline without comparable market stress. The pair pierced the 1.1185 Fibonacci projection but has not yet confirmed a break, even though Fed hike expectations have eased and French bond yields have stabilized somewhat.

Why it matters: Neither interest-rate differentials nor a generalized Eurozone panic explain the move; it is French-specific risk with broader Euro implications. A decisive loss of 1.1185 would strengthen the case that the decline from 1.2081 is developing into an impulsive medium-term downtrend, with the current leg from 1.1710 potentially entering its strongest phase. The next move around 1.1185 will determine whether the bearish trend is solidified and begins to accelerate.

EUR/USD has reached a point where today’s political headlines matter less for the size of the immediate move than for what could come next. The pair fell to around 1.1160, its lowest since May 2025, before recovering to 1.12. French fiscal and political risk remains the dominant Euro-specific pressure, while Spain’s snap election adds another headline without yet producing comparable market stress. France is identified as the main drag as EUR/USD hit a 17-month low, while Spanish equities largely shrugged off Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s call for a November 29 election.

The more important development is technical. EUR/USD has pierced 1.1185, the 100% projection of 1.1848 to 1.1323 from 1.1710, but has not yet confirmed a break. A decisive loss of that level would strengthen the case that the decline from 1.2081 is developing into an impulsive medium-term downtrend, with the current leg from 1.1710 potentially entering its strongest phase. In that sense, French political risk has brought the Euro to the line; the next move around 1.1185 will determine whether the broader bearish trend is solidified and begins to accelerate.

France Is the Core Risk, Spain Is Secondary Europe has two political stories today, but markets are not treating them equally.

France Fiscal Snapshot OAT-Bund spread: pushed above 100bp during September OAT-Bund spread: briefly above 150bp on Friday, before retreating France’s debt: around 119% of GDP France’s deficit: roughly 5.4%, which the government is trying to reduce through its 2027 budget In France, the repricing has been building for weeks. The OAT-Bund spread pushed above 100bp during September and surged to levels last seen during the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis period. The spread was briefly above 150bp on Friday, before retreating, as investors focused on France’s fiscal position and the difficulty of repairing it through a fragmented parliament ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

The fiscal backdrop explains why the political uncertainty carries market weight. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu’s government has proposed a combination of tax increases and spending restraint, but the legislation still faces a difficult parliamentary process.

The key point is that this is no longer simply a generic global bond-market selloff. France has developed its own risk premium. The widening relative to Germany—and the fact that French sovereign stress has at times exceeded Italy’s—shows investors differentiating between Eurozone credits rather than selling the bloc indiscriminately.

Spain is different.

Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called an early election for November 29 after parliament rejected key housing measures, adding another layer of political uncertainty to Europe. But the market reaction has so far been restrained. Spanish equities remained positive on the day, while investors saw limited reason to worry about Spain’s finances given comparatively solid growth.

France vs Spain: How Markets Are Treating Each France Spain Political trigger Fragmented parliament and a difficult 2027 budget process Snap election on November 29 after parliament rejected key housing measures Fiscal backdrop Debt around 119% of GDP; deficit roughly 5.4% Limited reason to worry about finances given comparatively solid growth Market reaction OAT-Bund spread briefly above 150bp on Friday; CAC 40 underperforming Spanish equities positive on the day The distinction is simple:

France is being priced. Spain is being watched.

Bonds Stabilize, but Euro Keeps Falling That distinction also helps explain today’s cross-asset pattern.

French bonds opened under renewed pressure, but yields subsequently eased from their early levels and remained below last week’s peak. The OAT-Bund spread also pulled back from Friday’s extreme rather than extending immediately higher. That is important because today is not another acceleration of the bond shock.

Cross-Asset Moves EUR/USD: fresh 17-month low CAC 40: fell, underperforming the major European equity indices STOXX 600: advanced Spanish equities: gained DAX, FTSE and Ibex: firmer Instead, the incremental pressure is showing more clearly elsewhere. EUR/USD made a fresh 17-month low, while the CAC 40 underperformed the major European equity indices. Paris shares fell while the broader STOXX 600 advanced and Spanish equities gained.

The FX heat map adds another useful clue. The Euro is broadly weak against the Dollar, Sterling, Canadian Dollar and Australian Dollar, but there is no comparable cross-market surge into every traditional haven. That argues against treating today as a generalized systemic risk event.

French sovereign stress remains serious, but the immediate move looks more like a Euro-specific risk premium being expressed through the currency and French equities while the bond market pauses after last week’s repricing.

The Rate Story Alone Does Not Explain EUR/USD The usual interest-rate explanation is also incomplete.

Fed expectations have become less aggressive at the very front end after softer US labor data, with October hike probability sharply reduced. Normally, that should remove at least some Dollar support. Yet EUR/USD is still making new lows.

That suggests the Euro side of the equation matters increasingly. French fiscal uncertainty, fragmented sovereign pricing inside the monetary union, weak confidence around the durability of the regional recovery and elevated energy costs are creating a risk premium that ordinary rate-differential analysis does not fully capture.

This is particularly important because today’s Euro weakness is occurring even as French yields themselves stabilize somewhat. The market is no longer simply demanding a larger premium to hold OATs; the political and fiscal uncertainty is also being reflected in the currency.

That does not mean the bond problem has disappeared. It means today’s incremental repricing is being expressed more visibly elsewhere.

Why This Is Not Yet a Eurozone Panic There are several reasons not to overstate the move.

Four Reasons Not to Overstate It French yields are below last week’s extreme rather than accelerating through it. Spanish bonds and equities are not showing the same degree of stress. If France’s problems were rapidly becoming a broader Eurozone sovereign event, Spain and Italy would be expected to begin moving much more aggressively alongside it. Broader European equities are not collapsing. The CAC is the outlier, while DAX, FTSE and Ibex have been firmer. The currency heat map does not show the sort of uniform rush into defensive currencies associated with acute systemic stress. The right description is therefore French-specific risk with broader Euro implications, not contagion.

That distinction could change if the OAT-Bund spread drives decisively back through last week’s extremes while Bunds rally and peripheral spreads begin widening together. But that is not the configuration today.

French Bond Spread, Budget and Spain: What Could Change the Picture The first test remains the French bond spread. Another sustained move above the 140–150bp area, particularly if accompanied by renewed demand for Bunds and widening in Spain and Italy, would indicate that the stress is broadening rather than merely consolidating.

The second is the French budget process. Markets need evidence that the 2027 fiscal package can survive a fragmented parliament and produce a credible path toward stabilizing the debt burden. France’s proposed measures are substantial, but parliamentary amendments are expected and implementation remains central to the credibility question.

Spain’s November 29 election is a secondary political catalyst, but the more immediate question is whether Spanish assets continue to distinguish themselves from France.

For EUR/USD, however, the most important signal may arrive before any of those political events. It is already sitting on the level that can decide whether the existing decline becomes something materially larger.

EUR/USD Technical Outlook: 1.1185 Is the Decision Point EUR/USD is testing 1.1185, the 100% projection of the decline from 1.1848 to 1.1323, projected from 1.1710.

Today’s 1.1160 low pierced that level intraday, but EUR/USD recovered back above it. That makes the current setup a warning rather than a confirmed breakdown.

A decisive daily close below 1.1185 would materially change the technical picture. The decline from 1.2081 could then increasingly be interpreted as an impulsive sequence:

1.2081 to 1.1408, rebound to 1.1848, fall to 1.1323, rebound to 1.1710, followed by the current decline. That is, a 1-2-i-ii.

Under that count, the fall from 1.1710 would represent the potentially powerful wave iii of the developing bearish sequence.

Key EUR/USD Levels Level Significance 1.1710 A break above invalidates the impulsive count 1.1323 First critical resistance on any recovery; a sustained recovery above it would weaken the immediate impulsive count 1.1185 100% projection of 1.1848 to 1.1323 from 1.1710; the decision point 1.0904 Larger 61.8% retracement 1.0861 161.8% projection, the next major downside projection, close to the 61.8% retracement 1.0759 Next projection below the 1.0861–1.0904 zone The next major projection would be 1.0861, the 161.8% projection. That sits close to the larger 61.8% retracement around 1.0904, creating a significant downside target zone. Below there, the next projection lies around 1.0759.

The larger implication is more important still. A confirmed impulsive fall from 1.2081 would strengthen the case that EUR/USD has begun reversing the entire three-wave corrective rise from the 0.9534 low of 2022. That would represent a meaningful medium-term trend change rather than merely another pullback inside the previous recovery.

For now, however, that conclusion is premature. Daily RSI is already deeply oversold, and EUR/USD has recovered from below 1.1185 intraday. A daily close beneath the level is the first confirmation; a weekly close below 1.1185 would carry considerably more weight.

On any recovery, 1.1323 has become the first critical resistance. As long as that former support holds as resistance, downside risk remains dominant. A sustained recovery above 1.1323 would weaken the immediate impulsive count, while a break above 1.1710 would invalidate it.

French political risk has helped drive EUR/USD to this point. Whether 1.1185 now gives way will determine whether the Euro’s medium-term decline merely continues—or begins to accelerate.

Related Coverage Europe: Data and Sentiment Eurozone Sentix Slips as Expectations Fall, France Replaces Germany as the Main Concern: investor sentiment data pointing to the same geographic shift in worry that is driving the Euro-specific risk premium. Eurozone PMI Hits 41-Month High as Growth Broadens and Price Pressures Reheat: September growth at a 41-month high, but with stronger selling prices and backlogs that make the release notably more hawkish. Eurozone PPI Re-Accelerates as Energy Shock Spills Into Broader Producer Costs: August producer inflation re-accelerated, with stronger ex-energy prices suggesting pipeline pressure is broadening beyond energy. UK Composite PMI Falls to 52.0 as Growth Slows and Costs Rise: services still expanding but with slower new orders, falling employment and higher fuel and payroll costs. Gold, Yen and Asia-Pacific Gold: Fed Hike Delay Isn’t Relief, FOMC Minutes Put the Rate Plateau to the Test: the Gold angle on collapsed October hike odds, with Wednesday’s FOMC minutes testing the extended tightening path priced into 2027. Nikkei Eyes Record High, But Four Forces Stand Between USD/JPY and 164: why this equity breakout may not repeat the last run in USD/JPY, with 160 now inside a tougher resistance zone. BoJ Uchida: AI’s Demand Shock Has Arrived Before Its Productivity Payoff: the BoJ Deputy Governor on AI’s first macro impact arriving through demand, prices and easier financial conditions. Japan PMI Growth Slows, But Hiring and Price Pressures Stay Firm: a weaker services headline, but with faster hiring, rising backlogs and exceptionally strong selling-price inflation underneath. Australia PMI Services Falls to 51.9 as Growth Slows and Price Pressures Rise: softer activity and falling employment paired with faster input and output-price growth. FAQ Why is EUR/USD making new lows when Fed hike expectations have eased? Fed expectations have become less aggressive at the front end after softer US labor data, which should normally remove some Dollar support. Yet EUR/USD fell to around 1.1160, its lowest since May 2025. French fiscal uncertainty, fragmented sovereign pricing inside the monetary union, weak confidence in the regional recovery and elevated energy costs are creating a risk premium that rate-differential analysis does not fully capture, and that premium is now also being reflected in the currency.

Is France’s bond stress turning into a Eurozone panic? Not yet. French yields and the OAT-Bund spread have pulled back from last week’s extremes, Spanish bonds and equities are not showing the same stress, broader European equities are not collapsing and the currency heat map shows no uniform rush into defensive currencies. The better description is French-specific risk with broader Euro implications, not contagion. That could change if the OAT-Bund spread drives decisively back through last week’s extremes while Bunds rally and peripheral spreads begin widening together.

What would a break below 1.1185 mean for EUR/USD? 1.1185 is the 100% projection of 1.1848 to 1.1323 from 1.1710, and EUR/USD pierced it intraday without confirming a break. A decisive daily close below it would support reading the decline from 1.2081 as an impulsive sequence, with the fall from 1.1710 as a potentially powerful wave iii. The next projection is 1.0861, close to the 61.8% retracement around 1.0904, with 1.0759 below that. A weekly close below 1.1185 would carry considerably more weight, while a break above 1.1710 would invalidate the count.

Key Takeaways EUR/USD fell to around 1.1160, its lowest since May 2025, before recovering to 1.12, with French fiscal and political risk as the dominant Euro-specific pressure. France is being priced and Spain is being watched: the OAT-Bund spread was briefly above 150bp on Friday and French debt is around 119% of GDP, while Spain’s November 29 election drew a restrained market reaction. Today is not another acceleration of the bond shock: yields and the spread pulled back, and the pressure is showing more clearly in EUR/USD and the CAC 40. Rates do not explain the move: Fed expectations have become less aggressive, yet EUR/USD is still making new lows. This is French-specific risk with broader Euro implications, not contagion, though that could change if the spread breaks back through last week’s extremes while peripheral spreads widen with it. EUR/USD pierced 1.1185 but has not confirmed a break; a decisive daily close below would strengthen the impulsive count, and a weekly close below would carry considerably more weight. Below 1.1185 the next projection is 1.0861, near the 61.8% retracement around 1.0904, then 1.0759; 1.1323 is first resistance and a break above 1.1710 would invalidate the count. What to Watch Next For EUR/USD, the decision point is 1.1185: a daily close below is the first confirmation and a weekly close below would carry considerably more weight, while 1.1323 is the first resistance on any recovery. On the political side, watch whether the French bond spread makes another sustained move above the 140–150bp area, how the 2027 budget fares in a fragmented parliament, and whether Spanish assets keep distinguishing themselves from France ahead of the November 29 election.

Brazilian Real: Election surprise supports BRL – BBH

Interest Rates in the United States Remain Elevated Based on what we’ve seen recently, silver, of course, is very sensitive to interest rates. That’s one of the biggest fights here. Interest rates in the United States remain elevated, and therefore silver is very difficult to get overly aggressive with.

Longer term, the silver market certainly seems to have a line of interest in it, as the electrification of the global economy continues to be a priority and demand for silver is strong in comparison to the relatively weak output.

That being said, we still have a situation where interest rates are providing that downward pressure. So, it’s not a one-and-done type of straight shot up in the air like we saw about a year and a half ago.

All things being equal, I do think eventually the silver market gets bullish from a longer-term standpoint. I own physical silver and would own more, but in a leveraged market like the silver futures market or even CFD markets, we have to be a little bit more nimble than that.

This could be thought of as a buying opportunity. That being said, this market will have to be very responsive to the bond market, and therefore we have to be very cautious with elevated rates causing that downward pressure. Conversely, if rates fall apart here, that could be the tailwind that silver desperately needs.

Not much has changed in terms of the direction of travel for gold prices. The near-term remains somewhat bearish, while the longer-term bullish story is still quite strong.

British Pound recovers some losses against US Dollar, ISM Services PMI eyed