EUR/JPY pares its recent losses from the previous day, trading around 185.30 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross is retaining a mildly bullish bias as it holds above the Volume-weighted Average Price (VWAP) and a cluster of Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), with the 50-day EMA acting as nearby trend support.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.81 sits just above its midline, hinting at steady, rather than aggressive, upside momentum while price remains supported by these underlying levels.
Daily chart technical analysis shows the EUR/JPY cross consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling that both buyers and sellers are growing increasingly aggressive as they compress the price into a narrowing range. This tight consolidation reflects a temporary balance of power, with neither side establishing clear control over the market's direction just yet.
The initial barrier lies at the upper boundary of the symmetrical triangle around 185.80. A break above the triangle would cause the bullish emergence and expose the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, primary support lies at the VWAP at 185.20, followed by the 50-day EMA at 184.95 and the nine-day EMA at 184.93. Further declines would put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to test the symmetrical triangle’s lower boundary around 183.70. A break below the triangle would expose the four-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the six-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.02%0.02%0.15%-0.03%-0.22%-0.49%0.01%EUR0.02%0.05%0.19%-0.01%-0.19%-0.47%0.04%GBP-0.02%-0.05%0.13%-0.05%-0.25%-0.51%-0.03%JPY-0.15%-0.19%-0.13%-0.18%-0.35%-0.64%-0.15%CAD0.03%0.00%0.05%0.18%-0.18%-0.47%0.03%AUD0.22%0.19%0.25%0.35%0.18%-0.28%0.19%NZD0.49%0.47%0.51%0.64%0.47%0.28%0.49%CHF-0.01%-0.04%0.03%0.15%-0.03%-0.19%-0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades 0.23% higher to near 0.6943 against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading session on Wednesday. The Aussie pair gains as the Australian Dollar outperforms its major currency peers, except the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) keeping the door open for further monetary policy tightening, if needed, to bring inflation back to the central bank’s target.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.03%0.03%0.15%-0.02%-0.21%-0.50%0.03%EUR0.03%0.05%0.17%-0.00%-0.18%-0.49%0.05%GBP-0.03%-0.05%0.13%-0.03%-0.25%-0.52%-0.03%JPY-0.15%-0.17%-0.13%-0.18%-0.34%-0.65%-0.15%CAD0.02%0.00%0.03%0.18%-0.18%-0.48%0.02%AUD0.21%0.18%0.25%0.34%0.18%-0.30%0.18%NZD0.50%0.49%0.52%0.65%0.48%0.30%0.49%CHF-0.03%-0.05%0.03%0.15%-0.02%-0.18%-0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
This year, the RBA has already delivered three interest rate hikes of 25 basis points (bps) and has pushed the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to 4.35%.
Going forward, investors will focus on China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be released on Thursday.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar trades marginally lower ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
AUD/USD trades higher at around 0.6944 at press time. However, the near-term tone is mildly bearish as it holds below the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA), which is at 0.6967. The pair’s inability to reclaim this nearby EMA resistance suggests topside attempts remain capped, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 42.75 stays below the midline, hinting at subdued but not extreme selling pressure.
On the topside, immediate resistance is clustered at the 20-period EMA at 0.6967, which needs to be overcome to shift the near-term bias toward recovery and open the way for a more sustained rebound. Looking down, the June 30 low at 0.6865 is the key support zone; a break below that would open further downside towards the March 30 low at 0.6833.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
AUD/NZD declines after three days of gains, trading around 1.2170 during the Asian hours on Wednesday. The currency cross falls nearly 0.25% as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gains ground following the release of the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ).
The RBNZ raised its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.50% at its June policy meeting, matching widespread market expectations. According to the central bank's Monetary Policy Review, further reductions in monetary stimulus will likely be necessary to steer inflation back to its 2% target midpoint as economic activity strengthens. The RBNZ noted that future OCR adjustments will remain strictly data-dependent, guided by incoming economic indicators, price-setting behavior, and medium-term inflationary pressures.
Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter highlighted that the Australian economy remains resilient despite recent oil price shocks denting consumer and business confidence.
Hunter reiterated the RBA's commitment to taking necessary action to curb inflation and maintain sustainable full employment. Despite this hawkish reminder, financial markets continue to price in a pause for the August meeting, expecting the RBA to hold its cash rate steady after delivering three interest rate hikes earlier this year.
RBNZ FAQs The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is the country’s central bank. Its economic objectives are achieving and maintaining price stability – achieved when inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), falls within the band of between 1% and 3% – and supporting maximum sustainable employment.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decides the appropriate level of the Official Cash Rate (OCR) according to its objectives. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising its key OCR, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD.
Employment is important for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) because a tight labor market can fuel inflation. The RBNZ’s goal of “maximum sustainable employment” is defined as the highest use of labor resources that can be sustained over time without creating an acceleration in inflation. “When employment is at its maximum sustainable level, there will be low and stable inflation. However, if employment is above the maximum sustainable level for too long, it will eventually cause prices to rise more and more quickly, requiring the MPC to raise interest rates to keep inflation under control,” the bank says.
In extreme situations, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) can enact a monetary policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the RBNZ prints local currency and uses it to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions with the aim to increase the domestic money supply and spur economic activity. QE usually results in a weaker New Zealand Dollar (NZD). QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objectives of the central bank. The RBNZ used it during the Covid-19 pandemic.
The New Zealand dollar received the boost that normally accompanies a rate hike, but the rally quickly lost momentum. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered a widely anticipated 25 basis point increase in the Official Cash Rate to 2.50%, yet investors stopped short of pricing a more aggressive tightening cycle. Instead, the market came away with the impression that while another hike is still likely, policymakers have set a considerably higher hurdle before taking the next step.
At first glance, the statement appeared hawkish. The Committee said “some further reduction in monetary stimulus is likely to be required” and that “further OCR increases appear likely at upcoming meetings.” But those remarks were balanced by equally strong caveats. The RBNZ repeatedly emphasized that medium-term inflation remains uncertain and that future decisions will depend on incoming data, firms’ price-setting behaviour and the strength of the recovery, adding that the timing of future hikes is “highly uncertain.”
That balance was reflected in the Record of Meeting. While all six members agreed to raise the OCR, they were not fully aligned on the inflation outlook. Prasanna Gai and Hayley Gourley believed risks remained tilted to the upside. However, Governor Anna Breman, Chief Economist Paul Conway, Assistant Governor (Money) Karen Silk and external member Carl Hansen judged the risks to be broadly balanced instead.
Those differences matter because the balanced camp included the Governor and two of the Bank’s most senior policy officials. Breman argued that weak demand could continue limiting businesses’ ability to pass higher costs on to consumers. Conway questioned how quickly the recovery would spread beyond stronger parts of the economy even while acknowledging firms might eventually rebuild margins. Silk pointed to two-way risks, noting that a weaker exchange rate could add to imported inflation, but slower immigration could simultaneously restrain growth, housing and inflationary pressure. Together, their comments suggest the Committee is looking for clearer evidence that inflation is becoming genuinely persistent before tightening again.
That explains the Kiwi’s muted reaction. The RBNZ reinforced its inflation-fighting credentials with another rate hike, but it deliberately avoided creating expectations of an automatic follow-up move. Investors appear to have concluded that policymakers are comfortable pausing at 2.50% until the data justify another increase, rather than feeling compelled to keep tightening simply because the cycle has begun.
The charts tell a similar story. NZD/USD recovered after the decision but remained comfortably below last week’s high at 0.5726, suggesting buyers have yet to seize full control. The rebound from 0.5625 may still extend in the near term, but it continues to resemble a corrective recovery within a broader downtrend.
Even if another leg higher develops, upside should be capped by the 0.5768 resistance cluster, including the 38.2% retracement of 0.5993 to 0.5625 at 0.5766. Once the corrective rebound is complete, a break below 0.5625 remains the preferred scenario. A subsequent move through 0.5580 would shift focus back to the 2025 low at 0.5484.
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Gold started a recovery wave from the $3,950 region. A major bearish trend line is forming with resistance at $4,180 on the 4-hour chart. WTI Crude Oil started a consolidation phase below the $72.50 resistance. Bitcoin recovered some losses and tested the $65,000 resistance. Gold Price Technical Analysis Gold found bids near $3,940 and $3,950 against the US Dollar. The price started a correction wave and climbed above the $4,000 resistance.
The 4-hour chart of XAU/USD indicates that the price surpassed $4,080, $4,120, and the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move from the $4,382 swing high to the $3,941 swing low. It even cleared the 100 Simple Moving Average (red, 4 hours) but stayed below the 200 Simple Moving Average (green, 4 hours).
The bears seem to be active below $4,200. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance at $4,180 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
If the bears remain in action, the price could revisit the $4,095 support. The first major support sits at $4,045. The next support could be $4,000, below which the price might slide to $3,940.
The main support sits at $3,880. Any more losses might call for a test of $3,650 or even $3,500 in the coming days. On the upside, immediate resistance could be $4,185. The next major resistance might be near a trend line at $4,200.
A clear move above $4,200 could open the doors for more upside. In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move toward $4,275 or even $4,300. Any more gains might send the price toward the $4,350 level.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the price started a minor recovery wave, but it might face resistance near $72.50 and $73.20.
Economic Releases to Watch Today
FOMC Meeting Minutes.
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Silver (XAG/USD) trades with a negative bias for the third straight day and hovers around the $59.80 region during the Asian session on Wednesday. The white metal, however, defends a support marked by the lower boundary of a short-term descending channel, around mid-$59.00s or the weekly low, touched on Tuesday.
Looking at the broader picture, the downward-sloping channel constitutes the formation of a bearish flag against the backdrop of the recent decline. Moreover, the recent repeated failures near the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart suggest that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD pair is to the downside.
Adding to this, the latest Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reading at -0.33 and a Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 44.16 hint at the risk of further downside within the range. However, a convincing break below the channel support is needed to reaffirm the negative bias and back the case for any further depreciation.
The XAG/USD might then weaken below the $59.00 mark, towards testing the next relevant support near the $58.35-$58.30 zone and the $58.00 mark. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $57.25 region en route to the $57.00 mark and the year-to-date low, around the $55.70 area, touched in June.
On the topside, initial resistance appears at the 100-period SMA at $62.32, with a break above exposing the upper channel line at $64.21 as the next hurdle. Only a sustained move over these barriers would ease current bearish pressure and pave the way for some meaningful upside in the near term.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
XAG/USD 4-hour chart
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.8077 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.8054 and 6.8018 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
USDCHF currency pair reversed from the support zone between the pivotal support level 0.8030 (former strong resistance from January and March), 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May and the support trendline of the daily up channel from May.
The upward reversal from this support area started the active short-term impulse wave iii from the start of July.
Given the bullish US dollar sentiment seen across the FX markets today, USDCHF currency pair can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 0.8130 (which stopped earlier impulse wave i).
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Sticky inflation expectations revive Fed hike fears Risk appetite deteriorates as tech stocks tumble Bearish engulfing pattern strengthens AUD/USD downside risks RBNZ, FOMC minutes headline today's event risk AUD/USD came under pressure on Tuesday as both of its dominant drivers moved against it. As things stand, the pair is behaving like a two-part front-end rates pricing, one-part risk appetite play. If that relationship holds, traders should keep a close eye on US rate expectations, developments in the Strait of Hormuz and performance of risk assets in Asia on Wednesday.
A shift in market dynamics The correlation matrix below highlights an important shift in recent market dynamics. Rather than behaving as a pure risk proxy, AUD/USD has increasingly traded as a relative rates play over the past week, with Australia-US front-end yield spreads emerging as the dominant driver of price action.
Source: TradingView
Inflation expectations bite The biggest driver of the overnight repricing in Fed expectations came from the New York Fed's June Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median one-year inflation expectations rose 0.2 percentage point to 3.7%, the highest level since September 2023, while three-year expectations climbed by the same amount to 3.3%, the highest since June 2022. Crucially, both measures increased despite respondents expecting gasoline prices to rise at the slowest pace since August 2022.
Source: TradingView
With inflation having remained above target for more than five years, a renewed pickup in inflation expectations despite easing energy price pressures is unlikely to make for comfortable reading at the Federal Reserve.
Markets responded by adding to Fed tightening bets, with futures now implying around 42 basis points of additional tightening over the next 12 months, up from around 33.5 basis points this time yesterday. While firmer oil prices and heavy Treasury issuance also helped push yields higher, the New York Fed's inflation expectations survey appeared to be the primary catalyst behind the repricing, coming in the absence of any other major US economic releases.
Source: TradingView
That helped lift US front-end Treasury yields relative to Australian government debt, extending the recent narrowing in the Australia-US two-year yield spread and adding to the downside pressure on AUD/USD.
Risk appetite retreats Risk sentiment also proved to be a headwind for the Aussie. Technology stocks remained under pressure amid growing questions over whether excessive AI infrastructure spending remains warranted, with Amazon's latest bond offering attracting softer demand than a similar deal earlier this year. Even Samsung's blowout earnings earlier in the session failed to satisfy investors' lofty expectations, extending the recent bout of profit-taking across semiconductor stocks.
Geopolitical tensions also intensified after renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz prompted the United States to revoke the licence permitting Iranian crude exports and launch retaliatory strikes against Iranian military targets, adding to the cautious tone across markets.
Today's key risks Looking ahead, the first scheduled risk event comes at 11am AEST when the RBA’s chief economist Sarah Hunter speaks at the Australian Conference of Economists in Canberra. With little major Australian economic data released recently, the speech may not offer fresh insights in the outlook for monetary policy, although markets will be alert for any changes in tone.
Attention will then turn to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy decision at midday AEST. While the event is centred on New Zealand, it often spills over into AUD/USD, with the Australian dollar typically moving in the same direction as the kiwi, albeit to a lesser extent.
The performance of Asian risk assets will also warrant close attention after Tuesday's heavy losses across Japanese and Korean technology stocks. Should that weakness extend into today's session, it would add another headwind for a currency that continues to display a meaningful positive relationship with broader measures of risk appetite.
Focus later in the session will then shift to the release of the June FOMC minutes, the first under Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Traders should be prepared for the format and level of detail to differ from previous iterations. However, with half of policymakers projecting at least one rate hike this year and Warsh striking a hawkish tone at his post-meeting press conference, markets should approach the release expecting the minutes to reinforce that hawkish message.
Bears regain control
Source: TradingView
The technical picture has turned more constructive for bears following the formation of a engulfing candle on the daily timeframe on Tuesday. The reversal came after AUD/USD's rebound from just above the 200-day moving average stalled at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-June 2026 bull move, adding weight to the signal given it occurred at a well-defined resistance level. While confirmation is still required, the setup points to an increased risk of a retest of the 200-day moving average at 0.6872 and the late-June swing low at 0.6866.
More broadly, the pair remains in a well-defined downtrend, continuing to post lower highs and lower lows. Momentum indicators remain broadly bearish despite showing signs of stabilising. RSI (14) remains below the neutral 50 level and has broken the minor uptrend in place over the past fortnight, while MACD has crossed above its signal line but remains deeply negative. Rather than providing a green light for bulls, the crossover looks more like a warning that downside momentum may be easing rather than reversing. The bearish bias is reinforced by the 50 and 100-day moving averages, both of which are now sloping lower, leaving the broader technical backdrop favouring selling into rallies and downside breaks.
Outside the abovementioned levels, initial resistance is found at 0.6979, marking former support from mid-June. Above that, the downtrend from the June multi-year high intersects just above 0.7000 alongside the 50 and 100-day moving averages, with more resistance found at 0.7080. On the downside, a break below the 200-day moving average and the June swing low at 0.6866 would expose the late-March low at 0.6835. Beyond there, attention shifts to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April 2025-June 2026 bull move at 0.6757, which also coincides with a breakout zone from earlier this year.
Gold price (XAU/USD) loses ground to around $4,100 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The precious metal faces new selling pressure after the US vows a response against Iran following reports of attacks on three oil tankers in and around the Strait of Hormuz. Traders await the release of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) June meeting minutes later on Wednesday.
“US Central Command forces have begun launching a series of powerful strikes against Iran to impose heavy costs for targeting and attacking commercial shipping crewed by innocent civilians in an international waterway,” Centcom said on Tuesday.
The US military added that the strikes were in response to Iranian attacks on three commercial vessels that were transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
Renewed tensions threaten to further destabilize relations between Washington and Tehran after both countries inked an interim peace deal last month that ended fighting on all fronts and reopened the strait. This, in turn, could raise energy-driven inflation fears and weigh on the non-yielding bullion.
A disappointing June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report has prompted traders to scale back Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hike bets, which might help limit the non-yielding metal’s losses. Data last week showed the US economy added 57,000 jobs in June, less than the downwardly revised 129,000 added in May and lower than the market expectations of 110,000.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Key Points:Gold reached oversold levels last month, not seen since 2022, prompting us to alert members of an impending bottom as prices entered our ideal target zones.Traders have returned following the extended holiday weekend, leading to some near-term selling pressure. Nevertheless, as long as gold holds above $4,000, I believe prices bottomed in late June.From a timing perspective, a late June to early July bottom in precious metals aligns closely with the 2006 analog we’ve been tracking. If the pattern continues to unfold, it could set the stage for gold to surpass $7,000 in the second half of 2027.
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Where we are in the cycle The Gold Cycle Indicator finished at 37. It reached a low of 14 in June, a level that has triggered multiple bottoms.
Gold Cycle Indicator showing a level of 37 and pointing towards “Maximum Bottoming”. WTIC: Oil filled the price gap and immediately reversed. A sustained move above the 200-day moving average ($74.00) would signal that the correction has ended and support a resumption of the uptrend.
WTIC rebounds after filling its price gap, with a move above the 200-day moving average needed to confirm renewed upside momentum. Source: Stockcharts.com GOLD: It looks like prices bottomed at the lower end of our target box, which will be confirmed with a progressive close above $4,250. Overall, we believe the recent low will hold for the remainder of the bull market and anticipate gold trading above $7,000 next year, which would be great for miners.
Gold appears to have bottomed near the lower end of its target zone, with a close above $4,250 needed to confirm the next bullish phase. Source: Stockcharts.com SILVER: Silver is working on a bottom in our ideal target box, though I can’t rule out a final dip in the first half of July. Either way, I believe we are very close to an important low that should hold for the remainder of the bull market. A price target north of $150 seems reasonable if gold trades above $7,000 as forecasted.
Silver is testing a key bottoming zone, with the long-term outlook pointing to significantly higher prices if gold extends toward $7,000. Source: Stockcharts.com PLATINUM: Platinum slipped briefly below the lower end of our target box, but we believe prices likely bottomed in June. With gold 2.5 times the price of platinum, I view it as the better value with the potential for far greater upside into 2030.
Platinum dips below its target zone before rebounding, reinforcing the view that a June bottom may already be in place. Source: Stockcharts.com GDX: Miners are working on a bottom in the middle of our target zone. A little more downside is possible if price closes below $74.50, but overall, I believe this multi-month correction is about 95% complete. If gold trades above $7,000 next year as forecasted, senior miners will be printing money and should outperform.
GDX is stabilizing within its target zone as senior miners approach a potential major low after a multi-month correction. Source: Stockcharts.com GDXJ: Junior miners are also very close to an important low, though I can’t rule out one final dip in July. Prices would have to close below $96.00 to promote more downside. Overall, we believe the correction is 95% complete, and this bottom should hold throughout the remainder of the bull market.
GDXJ remains near a key bottoming area, though a break below $96 could trigger additional downside before the next advance. Source: Stockcharts.com SILJ: Silver juniors are in a bottoming process, and we could see one final dip in July if prices break the double bottom at $24.49. If silver trades above $150 next year, SILJ could trade multiples higher from here in our view.
SILJ is forming a potential bottom, with silver juniors positioned for strong upside if silver resumes its bull-market trend. Source: Stockcharts.com BTCUSD: Bitcoin is bouncing in July, and prices are approaching the first level of resistance at the 50-day EMA. Progressive closes above this level could set the stage for another test of the 200-day moving average. Either way, I believe the next move below $58,000 will likely trigger the final capitulation phase, ultimately pushing prices toward $40,000 or lower before bottoming around October.
Bitcoin is rebounding toward short-term resistance, but a move below $58,000 could still trigger a deeper capitulation phase. Source: Stockcharts.com Closing Thoughts We believe metals and miners are approaching critical lows in June/July that could hold for the remainder of the bull market.
Our longer-term outlook sees gold reaching $10,000 to $15,000 and silver achieving $300 to $500 over the next five years, with a particular focus on 2031.
Our broader economic framework anticipates the next major economic downturn (depression) starting around 2030 and extending into 2036. The current inflationary environment will eventually transition into stagflation or outright deflation after 2032. Investors should begin preparing now for the opportunities that may emerge in the years ahead.
AG Thorson is a registered CMT and an expert in technical analysis. For more price predictions and daily market commentary, consider subscribing at www.GoldPredict.com.
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AG Thorson is a registered CMT and expert in technical analysis. He believes we are in the final stages of a global debt super-cycle that will begin to unravel in 2020.
The GBP/JPY reverses course on Tuesday, loses 0.24% as the Japanese Yen recovered some ground against most G8 FX currencies, except for the US Dollar. At the time of writing, the cross-pair trades at 216.51 after reaching a multi-year high of 217.22.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe bullish bias remains intact as the GBP/JPY printed a year-to-date (YTD) high at 217.22, which could open the door for further upside. However, it was a false breakout, as the cross pair tumbled below the previous YTD peak at 216.46, opening the door for a test of 216.00. Fears of a possible Bank of Japan (BoJ) intervention in the foreign exchange markets could prompt traders to book profits.
For a bullish continuation, buyers must clear the 217.00 figure, followed by the high of the day (HOD) fof 217.22 ‒ also the high of the year, which clears the way to challenge 218.00. On further strength, the next area of interest would be the 220.00 milestone.
On further weakness, the GBP/JPY first support would be the July 6 low at 215.33, followed by 215.00. Below this level, the next support would be the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 214.11, followed by the 100-day SMA at 213.26.
GBP/JPY Price Chart ‒ Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.29%-0.07%0.52%0.01%0.15%0.61%0.61%EUR-0.29%-0.37%0.24%-0.30%-0.09%0.26%0.29%GBP0.07%0.37%0.50%0.08%0.30%0.64%0.68%JPY-0.52%-0.24%-0.50%-0.54%-0.25%0.09%0.10%CAD-0.01%0.30%-0.08%0.54%0.28%0.65%0.59%AUD-0.15%0.09%-0.30%0.25%-0.28%0.34%0.39%NZD-0.61%-0.26%-0.64%-0.09%-0.65%-0.34%0.03%CHF-0.61%-0.29%-0.68%-0.10%-0.59%-0.39%-0.03% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
Gold weekly chart shows weekly bullish candle at trend low. Source: TradingView Potential Bottom Emerges After Decline Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that last week’s new trend low of $3,942 may be the bottom for the decline. It resides near the midline of a falling channel and prior support defined by a higher swing low from October. Last week ended with a weekly bullish candlestick pattern with a high of $4,195, which means that a weekly bullish reversal signal triggered on Monday, but it did not confirm with a closing above that weekly high.
Major Resistance Determines Next Direction Long-term dynamic resistance lies near the 50-week moving average at $4,308 and the 200-day moving average near $4,491. The 50-week moving average has converged with the downtrend line and can be watched along with the 50-day moving average for a resistance zone, since the 50-day is falling and approaching the 50-week zone. A sustained move above this resistance area would provide stronger evidence that the recent low was a durable bottom, while failure would leave the bearish structure intact.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Silver (XAG/USD) price tumbles nearly 3% on Tuesday as market mood turns dismal due to heightened tensions in the Middle East, following Iranian attacks on two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $60.26, after peaking at around $62.16.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookSilver remains downward-biased as long as it fails to clear a downward resistance trendline in the $64.00-$65.00 range, which could open the door to further upside.
Nevertheless, bulls are not out of the woods, as another key resistance level remains to be cleared, with the $70.00 psychological level up next, ahead of the crucial 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $70.13. If these key levels are broken, Silver could rally towards the 50- and 100-day SMAs, each at $70.79 and at $74.64.
On the flip side, it’s worth noting that an ‘evening star’ formed, which opens the door for further downside. If XAG/USD dives below the July 2 daily low of $59.00, this opens the door to challenge the June 30 daily low of $56.61 ahead of the $55.00 psychological level.
XAG/USD Price Chart - Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Long-term investors, the buy-and-hold type, like this area because it is at or slightly lower than 50% of the all-time high at $121.67, or a bargain, if you’re looking for a retest of that top or even $200 an ounce.
Short-term traders have the most difficult task because they tend to be “hit and run” traders. They tend to work together with the long-term buyer. The latter helps put in the bottom, while the former helps to navigate the short-term barriers in an effort to drive prices higher and away from the support zone.
The first rally off the $55.60 low, reached $63.28. This move was fueled by short-covering. Trader reaction to the 50% to 61.8% retracement of that short-covering rally is what’s going to drive the next major move.
I’m looking for a near-term pullback into $59.44 to $58.53. Trader reaction to this zone will tell me if real buyers are interested in silver at current price levels, or if the market is headed deeper into the low-term value zone.
Remember that long-term buyers aren’t looking for precision. So they can play this game all the way down to $46.48 if they want. They can show support that attracts short-term speculators then turn around a drop prices even lower, buying the very silver that the specs just dumped. So be prepared for some backing-and-filling while the bottom is being formed.
The formation of a support base will be much better for long-term results than just short-covering fueled price spikes. It all starts with whether new money supports the expected pullback into $59.44 to $58.53.
USD/CAD edges lower on Tuesday even as the US Dollar (USD) holds firm, with the Canadian Dollar (CAD) drawing support from a modest rebound in crude Oil prices following renewed attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, the pair is trading around 1.4188.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil is trading around $70.30, up nearly 2.50% on the day.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is treading water near 101.00.
However, diverging monetary policy expectations between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) could limit further gains in the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
Markets continue to expect the Fed to raise interest rates later this year to bring inflation back to its 2% target, even as softer-than-expected US labor market data have reduced expectations of a near-term rate hike.
The BoC is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year, while keeping the door open to rate cuts if inflation continues to ease.
Technically, the broader outlook remains bullish, with USD/CAD consolidating in a two-week range near levels last seen in April 2025.
Technical Analysis:On the daily chart, USD/CAD holds well above the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which reinforces a bullish near-term bias. Price is also holding over prior horizontal support at 1.4000 and the more immediate floor at 1.4150, keeping the pair well-supported despite a mild loss of momentum signaled by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) easing from overbought territory near 68 and a softening Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line slipping modestly below zero.
On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.4150, with a stronger structural cushion at the 1.4000 horizontal level. Below these, the 200-day SMA at 1.3845 and the 100-day SMA at 1.3822 form a deeper demand zone that would likely underpin any more pronounced pullback while the broader bullish structure remains intact.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
The Pound Sterling (GBP) retreats against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as tensions in the Middle East rise, following reports of attacks on two ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The GBP/USD pair trades at 1.3373, down 0.11%. Read More...
British Pound gains as easing Fed hike bets weigh on US DollarGBP/USD continues its winning streak for the ninth consecutive day, trading around 1.3390 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The currency pair rises as the US Dollar (USD) faces headwinds as market participants scale back expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes this month and in September. This shift in sentiment followed a cooling employment report that revealed fewer jobs added across April, May, and June than Wall Street had anticipated. Read More...
Pound Sterling rallies into its own coronationGBP/USD has quietly put together eight consecutive higher daily closes, a grind from near 1.3150 that has delivered the pair directly onto its 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with the 50-day EMA just beneath it and the 1.3400 handle immediately overhead. Monday added another modest gain: Cable based near 1.3350 through the London morning, then climbed all afternoon to stall just shy of 1.3400. Read More...
Gold (XAU/USD) price retreats by 0.44% on Tuesday as the yellow metal fails to clear $4,200 amid rising US consumer inflation expectations and threats of a resumption of hostilities in the Middle East, following reports of attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. The XAU/USD pair trades at $4,146 after peaking at $4,180.
Bullion retreats as yields climb and Hormuz risks returnThe yellow metal seems poised to consolidate after failing to clear a downward-sloping resistance trendline near $4,200, which exacerbated XAU’s drop towards the $4,150 area. Recent data from the NY Fed showed that inflation expectations rose to their highest level since September 2023.
The NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations indicated increasing concern among Americans about the high cost of living, with one-year inflation expectations climbing from 3.5% in May to 3.7% in June. Further data showed that the Goods and Services Trade Balance deficit widened from $-54.6 billion in April to $-77.6 billion in May, below estimates of $-78 billion.
The de-anchoring of inflation expectations could be a reason for Fed officials to raise interest rates. Additionally, reports from the Middle East indicated that two ships were attacked by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), as reported by Iran’s Fars agency, which fueled fears that energy prices could reaccelerate ahead of the US-Iran talks resumption.
Oil prices immediately edged higher, underpinning the Greenback due to their positive correlation. At the time of writing, Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude Oil benchmark, is up over 2.70% to $70.48 per barrel. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, trades at 199.97, up 0.12%.
Another reason to consider is that US Treasury yields are rising. The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen by 5.5 basis points to 4.525%. Despite this, money markets are sceptical of a rate hike at the July 29 meeting, but for September, the odds are near 60%, according to Prime Market Terminal.
The World Gold Council reported that the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) added further Gold reserves for the 20th consecutive month, with stockpiles hitting 75.44 million fine troy ounces at the end of June, up from 74.96 million a month earlier.
Investors' eyes shift towards the release of the latest FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday, followed by Thursday's jobless claims for the week ending July 4.
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold remains bearish below $4,200, sellers eye $4,000Gold’s downtrend is set to extend further if XAU fails to break a resistance line at around $4,200-$4,225. Furthermore, the formation of a 'death-cross' on the daily chart indicates that sellers are gaining traction, which could lead to further declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains bearish despite nearing the neutral 50 level. Over the past two trading sessions, it has indicated potential for additional downside.
Bullion’s path of least resistance is downwards. The first support is the $4,150 figure, followed by the psychological $4,100 mark. A breach of the latter will expose the $4,050 milestone, which lies ahead of the $4,000 figure and the year-to-date low at $3,941.
For a bullish turnaround, Gold must clearly break above $4,250 and then aim for $4,300. Resistance levels include the 50-day SMA at $4,391 and the 200-day SMA at $4,488, with $4,500 also in sight.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Treasury yields gained ground as higher oil prices raise inflationary risks. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.15% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled above 4.50%. Rising Treasury yields are bearish for gold that pays no interest.
U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies as forex traders focused on rising yields. Stronger dollar put additional pressure on gold markets.
From a big picture point of view, gold traders continue to take profits after the rebound from multi-month lows. It should be noted that gold has pulled back by more than 25% from historic highs, so current levels may attract central banks that want to replenish their reserves.
In case gold manages to settle below the $4150 level, it will head towards the nearest support, which is located in the $4020 – $4040 range. A move below the $4020 level will push gold towards recent lows near the $3950 level.
On the upside, a successful test of the resistance at $4180 – $4200 will open the way to the test of the next resistance at $4360 – $4380.
Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Short-term Trade Levels Gold has fallen nearly 30% from the record high after another sharp decline into the close of June. XAU/USD has rebounded from the yearly lows, with momentum divergence suggesting downside pressure may be fading. The recovery is now testing whether buyers can defend a key pivot zone and build a more durable low. FOMC minutes could provide the next catalyst as traders reassess the Fed outlook after weaker payrolls data. Resistance 4214, 4305/19 (key), 4367- Support 4074/98, 4007 (key), 3951 Gold is attempting to stabilize after a nearly 30% decline from the record high, with XAU/USD rebounding from fresh yearly lows on building momentum divergence. The recovery has brought price back above a key pivot zone, but buyers still need to prove they can defend support and extend the rebound into a broader recovery. With FOMC minutes on tap and markets reassessing the Fed outlook after weaker payrolls data, traders are watching to see whether gold can carve out a more durable low or if the broader downtrend reasserts itself. Battle lines drawn on the XAU/USD short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this gold technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s Gold Short-term Outlook we noted that XAU/USD had recovered back into the yearly open and that, “From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 4212 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 4540 needed to validate a near-term technical low and fuel the next leg of the advance.” The rally faltered the next day with gold plunging another 10% into the close of June before settling just above the late-October low-day close (LDC) at 3951.
A rebound on strong momentum divergence into the start of the month has extended more than 6.6% off the yearly low with this week’s pullback taking XAU/USD back above a pivotal support zone. The monthly opening range is taking shape here around the March lows and the focus is on a potential breakout in the days ahead for guidance with the broader short-bias vulnerable near-term.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; XAU/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at gold price action shows XAU/USD trading within the confines of a proposed ascending pitchfork extending off the June low. Initial support now rests at 4074/98- a key pivot zone defined by the 61.8% extension of the late-February decline and the March swing low. Note that the lower parallel converges on this zone into the close of the week and losses below this slope would invalidate the near-term uptrend and expose the yearly low-day close / July open at 4007. A break / daily close below this level would mark resumption of the broader downtrend towards the late-October low-day close (LDC) at 3951 and the October swing low at 3887.
Initial resistance is eyed at the 61.8% retracement of the most recent decline at 4214. This level converges on the 75% parallel over the next few days and a breach / close above is needed to fuel the next major leg of the recovery. Key resistance is eyed with the 38.2% retracement of the April decline and the objective yearly open at 4305/19- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the May low at 4367 and 4493-4533.
Bottom line: Gold has rebounded back above a key pivot zone with the weekly range taking shape just above. From a trading standpoint, losses would need to be limited to 4074 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above 4214 needed to fuel the next leg of the recovery.
Attention now turns to Wednesday's FOMC minutes, where investors will be looking for greater clarity on policymakers' views regarding inflation, labor market conditions, and the outlook for interest rates. Although Chair Warsh has reiterated the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability, last week's disappointing payrolls report has raised questions about the resilience of the labor market. As a result, markets have modestly pared expectations for further policy tightening, tempering the dollar's recent advance and lending support to gold prices. Fed Fund Futures now imply roughly a 68% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly close here for guidance. Review my latest Gold Weekly Technical Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term XAU/USD trade levels.
Key US Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Stalls at 2024 High as Intervention Risk Builds US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Targets Next Major Resistance British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Rebound Challenges Bear Trend Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Rebound Faces Fed- Breakout Looms --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
The American currency gained ground as traders focused on recent events in the Strait of Hormuz.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher As Oil Prices Rally
DXY 070726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the rally in the oil markets. An LNG carrier from Qatar was hit in the Strait of Hormuz. A Saudi oil tanker also suffered damage. Iran insists that ships should go through approved routes.
The nearest resistance level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 101.15 – 101.30 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle above the 101.30 level, it will head towards the next resistance, which is located in the 101.80 – 101.95 range.
EUR/USD Tests Support At 1.1420 – 1.1435
EUR/USD 070726 4h Chart EUR/USD pulled back as demand for risk assets declined after attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Traders also focused on the Industrial Production report from Germany. The report indicated that Industrial Production increased by +0.9% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst consensus of +0.2%.
Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1420 – 1.1435. This support level has already been tested several times and proved its strength. In case EUR/USD manages to settle below the 1.1420 level, it will get to the test of the 50 MA at 1.1410. A move below the 50 MA will open the way to the test of the support level at 1.1350 – 1.1365.
GBP/USD Retreats Amid Falling Demand For Risk Assets GBP/USD 070726 4h Chart GBP/USD is losing ground as traders focus on general strength of the American currency.
From the technical point of view, GBP/USD failed to settle above the 1.3400 level and pulled back towards 1.3370. The nearest support level for GBP/USD is located in the 1.3335 – 1.3350 range.
If GBP/USD declines below the 1.3335 level, it will head towards the 50 MA at 1.3285. In case GBP/USD manages to settle below the 50 MA, it will move towards the next support level at 1.3250 – 1.3265.
USD/CAD Tests The 1.4200 Level
USD/CAD 070726 4h Chart USD/CAD remains stuck below the resistance at 1.4225 – 1.4240 as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets. Gold and silver are losing ground, which is bearish for the Canadian currency. Other commodity-related currencies are moving lower in today’s trading session.
If USD/CAD settles below the 50 MA at 1.4204, it will head towards the support level at 1.4125 – 1.4140. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
On the upside, USD/CAD needs to settle above the resistance level at 1.4225 – 1.4240 to gain upside momentum in the near term. A move above 1.4240 will push USD/CAD towards the next resistance at 1.4335 – 1.4350.
USD/JPY Remains Stuck Near Key Resistance Level USD/JPY 070726 4h Chart USD/JPY is losing some ground as traders react to the Household Spending report from Japan. The report indicated that Household Spending increased by +3.7% month-over-month in May, compared to analyst forecast of +1.4%. On a year-over-year basis, USD/JPY declined by -0.4%, compared to analyst consensus of -2.5%.
The technical picture remains unchanged as USD/JPY is trying to settle above the resistance level at 161.50 – 162.00. If USD/JPY settles above the 162.00 level, it will move towards recent highs near 162.80. A move above the 162.80 level will push USD/JPY towards the 165.00 level.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
The euro continues to face difficult trading sessions in the short term. The European currency has been unable to stabilize a consistent recovery, and for now, a phase of indecision appears to be dominating its recent strength.
Silver (XAG/USD) extends its decline for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, trading around $60.70 at the time of writing, down 2.21% on the day. The precious metal is giving back part of last week's gains as investors adopt a cautious stance ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting minutes.
Higher US Treasury yields continue to reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets, while the US Dollar (USD) remains broadly supported by expectations that the Fed will maintain a restrictive monetary policy. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets largely expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, and expectations for a rate hike later this year have eased slightly following the latest US labor market data.
Recent US employment indicators continue to point to a gradual slowdown in the labor market. Job growth has recently fallen short of expectations, but the data has done little to alter the Fed's broader policy outlook. Fed of New York President John Williams said that labor market risks remain balanced and that inflation is still too high.
On the geopolitical front, tensions in the Middle East remain elevated. Reports of attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz continue to fuel concerns about global energy supplies. The situation is supporting Oil prices and reviving inflation concerns, a backdrop that is generally unfavorable for precious metals that are sensitive to interest rate expectations.
Investors will now turn their full attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes due on Wednesday. The minutes could provide fresh insight into the future path of monetary policy and help determine the next directional move for Silver prices.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report the Euro (EUR) is slightly softer versus the US Dollar (USD) but supported by a sharp recovery in yield spreads and stronger German industrial production. Renewed hawkishness from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers is lifting Euro area rate expectations. They see near-term upside for EUR/USD, with technicals pointing to a drift toward 1.15 within a 1.1400–1.1500 range and limited resistance before 1.1580.
Hawkish ECB supports Euro"Bearish/neutral – the recovery in the RSI is important, reflecting a clear fade in bearish momentum and a drift back toward the neutral threshold around 50. The near-term balance of risk appears to favor gains and a drift toward 1.15 and we note the absence of any material resistance ahead of 1.1580. The medium-term trend is flat, and we look to a near-term range bound between 1.1400 and 1.1500."
"The EUR is soft, down a fractional 0.1% vs. the USD as it consolidates within its range from last Thursday with congestion in the mid-1.14s. Tuesday’s releases have been limited to stronger than expected German industrial production data for May (0.9% m/m vs. 0.1% exp.)."
"The outlook for relative central bank policy is providing renewed support for the EUR and yield spreads are showing a sharp recovery from last Wednesday."
"Euro area rate expectations are climbing sharpy, reflecting renewed hawkishness from a range of ECB policymakers, including executive board member Schnabel who specifically pushed back on the idea of softening the central bank’s guidance in response to the latest decline in oil prices."
"We see near-term upside for the EUR as markets reprice their outlooks for both the ECB (higher) and the Fed (lower)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
/ / Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook- USD/CAD Bulls Face Their Biggest Test The Canadian Dollar is poised for a breakout with USD/CAD holding a tight range just below resistance. Battle lines drawn.
07/07/2026
7/7/2026 2:49:00 PM
Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Multi-timeframe Analysis Canadian dollar technical outlook is approaching a decisive breakout as USD/CAD tests major resistance after six consecutive weeks of gains. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at FOREX.com, explains the key technical levels to watch, why 1.4239 is the critical breakout zone, and how this week's FOMC minutes and Canadian employment report could determine the next major move for the pair.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Key US / Canada Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - latest economic developments and upcoming event risk.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Coils Below Resistance—Breakout Looms Australian Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD Holds Major Support—Reversal Risk Builds Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Overbought Rally Tests Major Resistance Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Stalls at 2024 High as Intervention Risk Builds US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Breakout Targets Next Major Resistance British Pound Short-term Outlook: GBP/USD Rebound Challenges Bear Trend Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Rebound Faces Fed- Breakout Looms --- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Follow Michael on X @MBForex
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EUR/GBP trades with a positive bias on Tuesday as sellers take a breather following the recent selloff that pushed the cross to a more than one-year low. At the time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading around 0.8550 after rebounding from an intraday low of 0.8533, its lowest level since June 2025.
Selling pressure intensified after EUR/GBP recently broke the key 0.8600 level, a multi-month support zone. Despite the intraday rebound, technical indicators continue to favor sellers, suggesting the near-term bias remains bearish.
The economic calendar is relatively light across Europe this week, leaving traders focused on comments from European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) officials for fresh policy clues.
ECB Governing Council member Fabio Panetta said on Tuesday that the "outlook remains fragile," adding that "upside inflation and downside growth risks remain."
Attention now turns to BoE policymaker Catherine Mann, who is scheduled to speak later on Tuesday.
Technical Analysis:
On the daily chart, EUR/GBP keeps a bearish near-term tone as it holds below both the 100-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.8664 and 0.8696, respectively.
The pair has recently bounced from oversold territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) recovering toward the 30 zone, while the low Average Directional Index (ADX) around 18 hints at a weak but persistent downtrend rather than an impulsive sell-off.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the horizontal barrier near 0.8600, ahead of the 100-day SMA at 0.8664 and the 200-day SMA at 0.8696, which together form a broader cap on recovery attempts.
On the downside, the next meaningful support sits at 0.8500, where a break would likely extend the bearish sequence toward fresh lows despite the tentative improvement in momentum.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.14%0.22%-0.05%0.03%0.27%0.28%0.21%EUR-0.14%0.06%-0.20%-0.12%0.14%0.17%0.07%GBP-0.22%-0.06%-0.26%-0.18%0.07%0.10%0.00%JPY0.05%0.20%0.26%0.08%0.34%0.34%0.26%CAD-0.03%0.12%0.18%-0.08%0.23%0.29%0.19%AUD-0.27%-0.14%-0.07%-0.34%-0.23%0.02%-0.07%NZD-0.28%-0.17%-0.10%-0.34%-0.29%-0.02%-0.09%CHF-0.21%-0.07%-0.01%-0.26%-0.19%0.07%0.09% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Scotiabank strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret note the British Pound (GBP) is slightly softer against the US Dollar (USD) after encountering resistance near 1.3400, with limited fresh data and Bank of England (BoE) news. The RSI recovery suggests improving momentum, but multiple resistance levels between 1.3420 and 1.3520 constrain upside. They look for GBP/USD to trade in a 1.3350–1.3450 range in the near term.
Momentum improves but upside capped"The pound is soft and also entering Tuesday’s NA session with a fractional 0.1% decline vs. the USD after finding some near-term resistance around 1.3400."
"Fundamental releases have been limited and developments out of the BoE have been limited to media reports of a proposed easing in bank capital rules. Political developments have been limited with markets waiting for fresh news on the looming leadership transition from PM Starmer to the ‘leader-in-waiting’ Burnham."
"In terms of fiscal risks, the UK’s OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) has underscored the challenges facing the UK and specifically the cost (£100bn) of stabilizing the national debt around current levels (95% of GDP)."
"Neutral/bullish—the RSI’s recovery has extended through the neutral threshold at 50 and momentum appears to be pushing further into bullish territory. The 50 and 200 day MA’s (both around 1.3400) had been flagged as offering the potential for near-term resistance and appear to be doing so."
"The daily chart offers dense resistance at several levels (1.3420, 1.3450. 1.3500, 1.3520) ahead of 1.3600. We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3350 and 1.3450."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Tuesday’s action, shaped in tight Doji candle, suggests that recovery leg from 0.6865 (June 30 low) starts to lose traction, following repeated failure at initial Fibo barrier at 0.6961 (23.6% retracement of 0.7271/0.6965) reinforced by falling 20DMA.
Overbought stochastic and south-turning RSI (currently at 42) on daily chart, warn of potential correction, if Fibo barrier at 0.6961 continues to cap.
Dips should be contained by broken 10DMA (0.6914) to keep near-term bias with bulls and prospects for acceleration towards 0.7000/20 pivots (psychological / Fibo 38.2%) and 0.7068 (50% retracement / 100DMA) in extension.
The notion is supported by softer tones from the US central bank on monetary policy, particularly on signals of weakening US labor sector, after disappointing June NFP data that almost fully sidelined expectations for Fed rate hike this month and dropped bets for a hike in September’s policy meeting.
On the other hand, the RBA kept hawkish stance that contributed to divergence of monetary policy views of two central banks and underpinned the Aussie dollar.
Conversely, any hawkish shift from the Fed may hurt near-term structure and risk retest of 200DMA (0.6868), key medium-term support, which keeps broader bulls (from Apr 2025) in play.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
Currency Pressures and Supply Deficits The US dollar remains fairly strong, and as long as that’s the case, I think silver probably struggles. Typically, there is a negative correlation over the longer term. Speaking of the longer term, I am bullish on silver eventually, but I also recognize that the market is trying to simply find a reason to go higher, and the lack of supply eventually will be a major factor, as there isn’t enough silver to satiate demand over the longer-term.
Right now, though, it looks like we’re focusing more on the US dollar and, of course, interest rates. As things stand right now, I’m still somewhat bearish on signs of exhaustion in the silver market, at least until the bond market starts to attract buying, to push rates lower again.
Technical Moving Averages and Death Cross Risk The 200-day EMA is at the $4,344 level and dropping, with the 50-day EMA above it also dropping, perhaps kicking off the so-called death cross. We’ll have to wait and see, but the one thing looking at this chart tells you is that there’s a very high potential that the area could be a resistance based on historical price action and, of course, those moving averages. All things considered, I still believe there is a lot of overhead pressure, especially if the interest rates in America continue to be elevated and the US dollar continues to take off. If that ends up being the case, then signs of exhaustion are potential selling opportunities.
You have to keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns out there right now, and that does tend to help gold longer-term. But right now, we’re just trying to determine whether or not we can even keep the uptrend going. We would need to clear the 200-day EMA to the upside for technical purists to get excited. After that massive run that we had seen, a drop to the $3,500 level, despite the fact that it would be somewhat scary, truthfully, looks pretty normal. So I’m still a bit suspicious about the short-term trend. Longer-term, I do think we go higher, but I think we’ve got a lot of noisy times ahead of us, though.
Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch notes Gold fell to USD 4,120 per ounce after fresh Iranian attacks lifted TTF gas and Oil prices, but Fed rate expectations remain unchanged. He argues downside is limited, as the People’s Bank of China has bought Gold for 20 straight months, recently accelerating purchases and adding 33 tons over the last three months on the lower price environment.
Chinese demand cushions recent weakness"The price of gold fell to USD 4,120 per troy ounce this morning following Iranian attacks on two cargo ships and an LNG tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the TTF natural gas price rose significantly, and oil prices also edged up slightly, fueling inflation concerns."
"However, there was no change in Fed rate hike expectations. The market continues to anticipate interest rate hikes by the Fed of around 30 basis points by the end of the year. As a result, the price decline is unlikely to continue much further."
"The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) purchased gold in June for the 20th consecutive month. Gold reserves rose by 480 thousand ounces, or nearly 15 tons last month, according to the central bank. These are the largest monthly purchases since October 2023."
"Gold purchases over the past 20 months total more than 80 tons - or just over 4 tons per month. However, purchases have recently picked up noticeably. In the last three months alone, they totaled 33 tons."
"Apparently, the lower price level has prompted the PBoC to step up its purchases."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The British Pound (GBP) ticks lower to near 1.3380 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Tuesday. The GBP/USD pair edges down as the US Dollar gains slightly; however, the Cable is broadly upbeat.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.90. The US Dollar is expected to trade cautiously as investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors will closely read FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook. Read more...
GBP/USD outlook: Recovery faces strong headwinds on approach to key 1.3400 resistance zoneCable moves within a narrow-range sideways mode for the second consecutive day, after 1% advance last week that completed reversal pattern on weekly chart (after the downleg from 1.3869 was contained by ascending trendline, drawn off 1.0348, 2022 low) and generated positive signal on close above weekly Ichimoku cloud top (1.3335).
On the other side, the picture on daily chart is not that optimistic (14-d momentum remains in negative territory and turns south, stochastic is emerging from overbought territory) as long upper shadows on last two daily candles point to strong headwinds from very significant 1.3400 resistance zone (consisting of converged 200/100/55DMAs / 50% retracement of 1.3653/1.3140 / daily cloud base). Read more...
Gold (XAU/USD) stalls its recovery and trades on the back foot for a second consecutive day as a steady US Dollar (USD) and doubts over the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate path keep the upside in check.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,130 during the European trading session on Tuesday.
While the weaker-than-expected June US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report eased near-term Fed rate hike fears and triggered a relief rally in the non-yielding metal from below the $4,000 mark last week, it did little to change the broader hawkish Fed narrative.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that the central bank remains committed to its 2% inflation target, calling it "a credible pledge."
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are pricing in a 75% probability that the US central bank will leave borrowing costs unchanged at this month's meeting. Meanwhile, the odds of a September rate hike stand at 58%, down from 68% a week ago.
Hawkish Fed expectations, elevated US Treasury yields and lingering uncertainty over a broader US-Iran peace agreement continue to support the US Dollar (USD), limiting Gold's upside. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 100.95.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) reportedly attacked a commercial vessel near the Strait of Hormuz on Monday. Meanwhile, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations on a final agreement would not begin while threats persist, after US President Donald Trump warned that Washington would either reach a deal with Tehran or "finish the job."
Traders now turn their attention to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, due on Wednesday, for fresh clues on the monetary policy path in the coming months, which could influence Gold prices.
Meanwhile, the latest CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report showed speculative traders increased their bullish bets on Gold in the week ended June 30, with non-commercial net long positions rising to 194K contracts from 181.3K a week earlier.
On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bearish bias as it holds below both the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,489 and the 100-day SMA at $4,619.
Momentum is subdued, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 44, while the Average Directional Index (ADX) around 38 hints at a still-established but not explosive downtrend.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at $4,200, ahead of the 200-day SMA at $4,489, with the longer-term bearish threshold reinforced by the 100-day SMA at $4,619.
On the downside, the first meaningful support aligns with the horizontal level at $3,950, where a break would likely extend the current corrective phase toward lower psychological floors.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The GBP/EUR pair surged to a 52-week high of 1.171, gaining 1.3% over the month and over 2% year-to-date A restrictive 5.25% UK interest rate, sticky domestic service inflation, and political stability are driving the pound's strong outperformance Forecasts diverge on further gains, and investors should watch the BoE's July 30 decision and ECB's September meeting as key near-term catalysts. The GBP/EUR currency pair has reached a new 52-week high of 1.171. This follows a period of notable strengthening, with the pound increasing by 1.3% in the past month and by 0.3% over the last five trading days. Year-to-date, the pair has seen gains exceeding 2%.
Observers of foreign exchange markets will recognize that such shifts rarely occur in isolation. A combination of policy divergences, economic data, and sentiment adjustments appears to be at work.
The Interest Rate Story Still Matters Most Several factors are contributing to the sterling’s strength. Differences in monetary policy between the UK and the eurozone are a primary driver. The Bank of England recently maintained its Bank Rate at 3.75%, with a split vote indicating some members favored an increase.
In contrast, the European Central Bank raised its deposit rate to 2.25% following an uptick in eurozone inflation. Despite the ECB’s tightening, the UK’s higher interest rates continue to provide support for the pound.
Just a week before that, the European Central Bank had increased its deposit rate to 2.25%. This was their first increase since 2023. It happened after inflation in the eurozone jumped to 3.2% in May, largely due to an energy price surge caused by events in the Middle East. Even though the ECB is tightening its policy, the interest rate difference still gives the British pound a significant advantage, and this higher return continues to support the currency.
At the same time, political factors have unexpectedly come into play. The market’s worries about the upcoming UK political leadership changes have really calmed down. Financial firms seem reassured by the clear promises from the main political candidates to stick to current government borrowing limits. This stable political outlook is a stark contrast to the local budget disputes and economic slowdowns that are quietly affecting the major economies in the eurozone.
Key Risks to Watch The most important thing to look at next is the BoE’s decision on July 30th. Most people expect them to hold rates again, but if some members dissent and push for a hike like before, it could boost the pound even more. If the BoE keeps its firm stance during its upcoming policy review, the interest rate gap will definitely continue.
Investors should also consider UK economic growth figures. A sharper-than-expected slowdown could weaken the currency’s advantage. For those with euro exposure, the current levels present an opportunity, but potential exists for a return to the year’s mid-range.
Broader global economic indicators and changes in market sentiment may also indirectly affect these currency movements. It is advisable to monitor evolving economic data rather than assume a continuous upward trend.
Broader global developments, including US economic data and shifts in risk sentiment, may also influence cross rates indirectly. Overall, participants would benefit from staying attuned to evolving indicators rather than assuming a unidirectional trend.
What has driven GBP/EUR to 52-week highs?
A persistent UK-Eurozone interest rate gap and fading UK political risk are combining to lift sterling.
What should investors watch next?
Key events to watch in the near term are the Bank of England’s July 30 decision and the ECB’s September meeting.
How has the domestic British political landscape helped support institutional investor confidence in sterling this summer?
A stable political outlook and commitments to fiscal responsibility have helped bolster confidence among institutional investors in the pound.
The NZD/USD pair is down 0.2% to near 0.5690 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Kiwi pair faces selling pressure as the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperforms its peers ahead of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) monetary policy decision on Wednesday.
New Zealand Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.08%0.07%-0.08%0.05%0.15%0.23%0.17%EUR-0.08%-0.03%-0.17%-0.04%0.10%0.17%0.09%GBP-0.07%0.03%-0.13%0.00%0.11%0.20%0.12%JPY0.08%0.17%0.13%0.14%0.25%0.32%0.26%CAD-0.05%0.04%0.00%-0.14%0.09%0.20%0.12%AUD-0.15%-0.10%-0.11%-0.25%-0.09%0.09%0.00%NZD-0.23%-0.17%-0.20%-0.32%-0.20%-0.09%-0.08%CHF-0.17%-0.09%-0.12%-0.26%-0.12%0.00%0.08% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
In the policy meeting, the RBNZ is highly anticipated to raise interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.5%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to RBNZ Governor Anna Breman’s press conference to get fresh cues regarding the monetary policy outlook.
In the May policy meeting, RBNZ’s Breman stated that the interest rates were likely to increase sooner and by more than previously signalled to combat inflation. Breman added, "The committee remains focused on ensuring inflation returns to target while avoiding unnecessary volatility in the economy.”
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) trades higher ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting, which will be released on Wednesday. Investors will closely read FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.1% higher to near 100.95.
NZD/USD technical analysis
NZD/USD trades lower at around 0.5688, keeping a bearish near-term tone as spot holds beneath the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.5724.
The pair’s inability to reclaim this short-term EMA suggests rallies remain capped for now, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting at lingering downside pressure rather than an oversold extreme.
On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-period EMA near 0.5724, where any recovery would likely meet initial supply and define the hurdle for a more meaningful rebound. Looking down, key support areas are around the June 26 low at 0.5626 and the November 21 low at 0.5580.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator RBNZ Interest Rate Decision The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announces its interest rate decision after each of its seven scheduled annual policy meetings. If the RBNZ is hawkish and sees inflationary pressures rising, it raises the Official Cash Rate (OCR) to bring inflation down. This is positive for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) since higher interest rates attract more capital inflows. Likewise, if it reaches the view that inflation is too low it lowers the OCR, which tends to weaken NZD.
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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) holds monetary policy meetings seven times a year, announcing their decision on interest rates and the economic assessments that influenced their decision. The central bank offers clues on the economic outlook and future policy path, which are of high relevance for the NZD valuation. Positive economic developments and upbeat outlook could lead the RBNZ to tighten the policy by hiking interest rates, which tends to be NZD bullish. The policy announcements are usually followed by interim Governor Christian Hawkesby's press conference.
United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang reports EUR/USD holding near 1.1440 with a firmer underlying tone. The pair is expected to trade slightly higher in a 1.1425–1.1470 range intraday. Over the next 1–3 weeks, the bias remains tilted to the upside as long as Euro stays above strong support at 1.1390, with resistance at 1.1470 and 1.1500.
Firmer tone within defined ranges"24-HOUR VIEW: Following last Friday’s price action, we highlighted yesterday that “momentum indicators are mostly flat,” and expected EUR to “rangetrade between 1.1415 and 1.1455.” EUR subsequently dipped to 1.1408, rose to 1.1444 before closing largely unchanged at 1.1440 (+0.04%). We continue to expect range-trading, but the firmer underlying tone suggests EUR is likely to trade in a higher range of 1.1425/1.1470."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our EUR view to mildly positive last Friday (03 Jul, spot at 1.1430). We highlighted that “the bias for EUR is tilted to the upside,” but we stated that “expect firm resistance at 1.1470 and 1.1500.” We will maintain this view as long as EUR holds above 1.1390 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1370)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The pair between the Peso and the Dollar (USD/MXN) is currently consolidating as traders await further triggers from the macroeconomic front. Current Setup and Live Chart The USD/MXN pair is currently trading in a consolidation between 17.1016 and 17.6417, with the former acting as the price floor and the latter acting as the ceiling. This consolidation comes as traders juggle between U.S. interest rate expectations, global risk sentiment, and Mexico’s relatively high interest rates.
The pair has seen the recent uptick rejected at the price ceiling following the relatively dovish comments from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at the Sintra Central Banking Forum. While these comments and the downbeat NFP data have not heavily dented the U.S. dollar’s recent strength, they have contributed to the counterbalance between the U.S. Dollar and the Mexican Peso.
Macro Drivers of the USD/MXN 1) Interest Rate Differentials
The Mexican Peso has one of the highest real interest rates among emerging market currencies. This has led to carry trades between the USD and the Mexican Peso. Now that the Fed has indicated it will adopt a cautious stance to interest rate adjustments, interest rate expectations in the U.S. have been repriced lower. The high interest-rate differential between the two currencies continues to promote foreign bond investments, carry-trade strategies, and Peso-leaning institutional capital flows.
2) Oil Prices
The Peso is a commodity currency that has a positive correlation to oil prices. During the oil price shock, the Peso gained sharply against the U.S. dollar despite safe-haven flows into the dollar. The Peso remained stable and maintained a strong 25% gain from February 2025 to date against the greenback.
3) Fed Rate Expectations
Expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy continue to be a key driver for the pair’s price movements. Now that the Fed is shifting to a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, U.S. data will become important drivers of price movements in the USD/MXN pair. The pair is expected to remain sensitive to the direction of U.S. Treasury yields. Declining yields will encourage demand for the higher-yielding Peso, while rising U.S. bond yields will shift focus towards the USD.
4) Nearshoring
Mexico continues to benefit from the nearshoring trend. Nearshoring is the process by which investments shift to countries with lower production costs. Mexico has relatively lower production costs for companies in the United States, as wages are lower and the operating environment has a lower cost of moving than the United States. This nearshoring investment potential continues to support foreign direct investment into the Mexican market, which requires foreign capital denominated in U.S. dollars to be converted into the local Peso. This also boosts Mexico’s industrial production, export growth potential, and employment, all of which together provide confidence in Mexico’s economic outlook.
Price Catalysts (Near Term) 1) U.S. economic data: U.S. data, especially those around employment, labor market conditions and inflation, look set to assume greater importance now that the Fed is shifting towards a data-dependent approach to monetary policy. Stronger-than-expected US data are supportive of USD/MXN. In contrast, downbeat data will limit near-term recovery potential, as the pair is now in a consolidation phase following a 16-month downtrend.
2) Global risk sentiment: The USD/MXN is a pair that is highly sensitive to global risk sentiment. The greenback benefits from risk aversion, while the Peso thrives when investor appetite for risk is high.
3) Mexican inflation and central bank expectations: the market will keep watch over Mexico’s data, especially those around inflation and Banxico’s rate policy. Higher domestic inflation will support the Peso, as it increases the risk of a rate hike from the Mexican central bank.
USD/MXN Weekly Forecast Scenarios Base case: neutral to bearish, as the interest rate differential and the dovish shift of the Fed should allow for a further retracement from the range top, even as a resilient USD prevents a downside continuation.
Bull case: stronger-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic data and rising U.S. bond yields. Furthermore, any conditions that lead to a deterioration in global risk sentiment can trigger a safe-haven flight to the U.S. Dollar, drawing capital away from emerging-market currencies. In this situation, the pair will break out of the consolidation and aim for the 18.15-18.60 price range.
Bear case: softer-than-expected U.S. inflation, global risk-on sentiment, strong Mexican data (especially local inflation), and falling U.S. bond yields will trigger the bear case scenario. Add in the carry trade dynamics, and we could see a continuation of the downward trend in place since February 2025. A move toward 16.60 cannot be ruled out under this scenario.
USD/MXN Technical Outlook The pair is trading within a consolidation. 17.1016 is the range floor, and 17.6473 is the range ceiling. Currently, price is retracing after rejection at the range ceiling. The range’s floor is next in line, and if the bears succeed in eroding this support, a continuation of the downtrend towards 16.6272 (the 28 July 2023 and 17 May 2024 lows) could be on the cards.
Fig 1: USD/MXN daily chart showing key price levels (snapshot taken on 7 July 2026) On the flip side, recovery in the pair follows an uncapping of the 17.6473 range ceiling. This move lines up the 18.1547 high of 18 April 2024 with the 31 March 2026 high as the next upside target. A further upside extension brings in 18.6053 as the next target in line for the bulls.
The British Pound looks set to extend its recovery against the US dollar in the near term, according to UOB, with the bank expecting GBP/USD to test fresh highs before the current rally begins to lose momentum. While UOB remains constructive over the next one to three weeks, it believes the broader outlook is still one of range trading over the coming months rather than the start of a sustained bull market.
Image: GBP/USD performance 1 year chart - 07/07/2026 Why UOB Thinks the British Pound Can Push Higher UOB says Sterling's recent rebound has been stronger than expected.
After initially anticipating GBP/USD would remain within a relatively narrow range, the pair instead dipped briefly before rallying sharply to almost 1.3400, closing last week with firm upside momentum.
The bank believes that momentum should allow GBP/USD to test resistance around 1.3410, with a break above that level potentially opening the door to 1.3445.
However, UOB cautions that the move is becoming increasingly stretched, suggesting further gains are likely to be more gradual than the recent advance.
The bank first turned bullish on Sterling at the end of June, arguing that GBP/USD had scope to rebound from the 1.3250 area.
Since then, the pair has steadily climbed, supported by improving technical momentum and a series of higher daily closes.
GBP/USD was trading close to 1.3380 on Tuesday morning after gaining more than 1% so far in July, recovering much of June's decline.
According to UOB, only a sustained move below 1.3300 would signal that the current upward momentum has faded.
What's the Longer-Term Sterling Outlook? While the short-term picture has improved, UOB is less optimistic over a one-to-three month horizon.
The bank expects momentum indicators to flatten, with GBP/USD likely to settle into a broad trading range rather than continue climbing.
It sees initial support around 1.3210, followed by 1.3160, while resistance is located at 1.3610 and 1.3655.
That suggests Sterling may continue to perform well over the coming weeks before meeting stronger resistance later in the summer.
What's the Forecast for the Pound versus the Dollar? UOB believes the immediate bias remains higher.
A decisive break above 1.3410 would increase the likelihood of a move towards 1.3445 over the next one to three weeks.
Beyond that, however, the bank expects GBP/USD to lose directional momentum and return to range trading, with neither Sterling nor the US dollar likely to establish a sustained trend over the medium term.
Image: GBP/USD bank consensus forecasts - July 2026 survey poll results GBP/USD Forecast FAQIs UOB bullish on GBP/USD?
Yes, in the short term. UOB expects GBP/USD to remain supported over the next one to three weeks, although it is less bullish over the following few months.
What are UOB's key GBP/USD levels?
The bank sees resistance at 1.3410 and 1.3445, while 1.3300 is the key support level that would suggest the current rally is fading.
What is UOB's longer-term view?
Rather than expecting a sustained rally, UOB believes GBP/USD is likely to trade within a broad range over the next one to three months, with support at 1.3210 and 1.3160 and resistance at 1.3610 and 1.3655.
What would strengthen the bullish outlook?
A decisive move above 1.3410 would reinforce the positive technical picture and could pave the way for a test of 1.3445.
Gold and silver continue to trade within technically vulnerable zones, keeping the risk of another leg lower alive before a longer-term accumulation opportunity emerges—unless key resistance levels are reclaimed.
Key Market Developments Gold continues to hold above 3,930, while daily momentum remains below the neutral threshold. Silver remains above 55, although daily momentum also stays below neutral. The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to trade above the critical 100.20–100.60 support zone, with daily momentum remaining constructive. Together, these conditions suggest that further confirmation is still needed before a sustainable bullish reversal can develop in precious metals.
At the same time, they reinforce the broader strength of the US dollar against major currencies and metals, supported by:
Markets continuing to price a meaningful probability of another Fed rate hike later this year, with Fed funds futures still implying over a 50% probability of tighter policy during Q4 2026. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target while balancing labour market and growth risks. Seasonal liquidity rebalancing heading into the summer months, increasing the potential for volatility. In May 2026, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi publicly encouraged households to postpone non-essential gold purchases for roughly one year amid elevated oil prices, pressure on foreign exchange reserves, and rupee weakness. As India remains one of the world's largest consumers of physical gold, this may have contributed to softer sentiment toward precious metals since March 2026. CME FedWatch Tool
Source: CME
Long-Term Bullish Case Remains Intact Despite current headwinds, the structural outlook for precious metals remains constructive.
Central banks continue increasing their allocation to gold as part of reserve diversification, while growing industrial demand—particularly for silver through technology, electronics and the energy transition—continues to provide long-term support.
Consequently, the current correction may ultimately evolve into either:
another opportunity to participate in the broader secular bull market, or an attractive long-term dip-buying opportunity. You can follow this analysis live during the daily MENA Market Call
Key observations Gold is testing the 27.2% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance between 1920 and 2026.
This represents one of the most important technical levels on the long-term chart.
A confirmed close below 4,020-3930 would expose the next major Fibonacci support zones:
3,500–3,400 38.2% Fibonacci retracement Former five-month resistance throughout 2025 2,800–2,700 Upper boundary of the 1980–2024 consolidation 50% Fibonacci retracement On the upside, sustained trading above: 4,020 - 4,180 -4,370–4,400 would reinforce confidence towards the long-term bullish continuation scenario, breaking above the descending resistance since March 2026.
Monthly Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
Key observations Gold continues attempting to rebound from the long-term trendline connecting successive highs since 2016, while 3,930 remains a critical support level.
This creates another layer of technical confluence with the long-term 27.2% Fibonacci retracement.
A decisive monthly break below this trendline would strengthen the case for a heavy move toward the previously identified support zones.
However, the 3,460–3,500 area stands out as a high-probability zone for renewed buying interest before considering any broader bearish extension.
Importantly, monthly momentum continues to hold above the neutral threshold, suggesting the secular uptrend has not yet been invalidated, even though daily momentum remains below the neutral mark.
Daily Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
Near-term outlook Gold's rebound from 3,930 toward 4,180 continues to be capped by the descending trendline that has guided prices lower since March 2026.
Should selling pressure intensify below:
4,090 4,020 3,930 the next downside objectives become:
3,880–3,810 (October 2025 lows) - short term 3,650 - short term 3,500–3,400 - long term Conversely, a sustained breakout above the descending trendline, 4370-4400, would provide the first meaningful confirmation that a bullish reversal is underway.
Silver Price Forecast: Daily Time Frame (Log Scale)
Source: TradingView
Silver remains under pressure around the important 60 psychological level.
Prices continue trading beneath the descending trendline that has been in place since May 2026, while daily momentum remains below the neckline of the developed head-and-shoulders pattern.
Together, these factors keep downside risks elevated while highlighting the need for additional bullish confirmation before confidence in a sustained recovery can increase.
Should silver break back below 59, the following downside targets become relevant:
56 - short term 53.80 - short term 50 - long term 46 - long term The broader 55–45 region represents a major long-term technical support area, aligning with:
Former resistance from the 1980–2024 consolidation. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the secular advance between 1920 and 2026. On the upside, silver would need to reclaim: 64.60 - 68.00 - 72.00 before the broader technical outlook shifts back toward a constructive bullish bias.
Two central banks, two hawkish tones — but only one dollar just took a hit. The ECB delivered a 25bp hike in June, its first since 2023, lifting the deposit rate to 2.25% as Middle East-driven energy costs pushed headline inflation to 3.2% in May before easing to 2.8% in June, with growth downgraded to 0.8% amid weaker confidence.
The Fed, under new Chair Kevin Warsh, held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for a fourth straight meeting, with a hawkish dot-plot shift initially fueling hike expectations. However, the June employment report—released on July 3rd—showed nonfarm payrolls rising by just 57K against 110K expected, the weakest reading in four months, while the unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% only due to a labor force participation rate falling to 61.5%, its lowest level in five years.
The result: both central banks’ communications currently lean hawkish, but with the Fed’s data now sending mixed signals. Which side ultimately prevails could well set the tone for EUR/USD’s trend into year-end.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has spent roughly the past year confined within a broad consolidation range, as the chart illustrates, with price repeatedly oscillating between well-defined boundaries and no decisive breakout sustained in either direction.
Bullish Scenario
After briefly breaking below the range’s base support, price snapped back quickly, reclaiming the range almost as fast as it left it. For renewed bullish momentum to take hold, EUR/USD first needs to hold above the 1.1420-1.1460 support zone. The next, more decisive test lies with the descending trendline originating from January’s highs, which has been respected consistently throughout the year. This same area also converges with the 200-period EMA and the long-term ascending trendline broken to the downside in June. This confluence makes 1.1500-1.1550 the pivotal zone: a clean break above it would open the door for the euro to regain sustained strength against the dollar.
Bearish Scenario
The alternative reading is that price is currently only retesting the previously broken key support at 1.1420-1.1460. A decisive break below the low formed near 1.1320-1.1350 would confirm renewed downside momentum, clearing the path to resume the broader medium-term downtrend, where the next significant support comes into play around 1.1100-1.1150.
Either scenario will likely require confluence between technical structure and fundamentals, with central bank rhetoric and action remaining the key driver. ECB or Fed — which one becomes the catalyst for EUR/USD’s next major trend?
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EUR/USD remains slightly under pressure as the US dollar finds mild support ahead of the FOMC minutes Firmer oil prices and volatility in technology stocks reinforce demand for safe-haven dollar German industrial production jumps but fails to offer euro much support The EUR/USD forecast remains tilted slightly to the downside as the dollar continues to attract buyers in what has been a relatively quiet start to the week. With little in the way of fresh economic catalysts, investors are focusing on central bank expectations, oil prices, some volatility in the technology sector and broader risk sentiment. While the euro has managed to hold above the 1.1400 mark, it is struggling to generate meaningful upside momentum as markets increasingly favour the US dollar for now.
Markets settle into wait-and-see mode Currency markets have entered a period of consolidation following last week’s US employment report. Although payroll data was softer than expected, it failed to significantly alter expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Investors appear comfortable maintaining long-dollar positions while waiting for clearer signals from policymakers.
Monday’s US ISM Services PMI came in largely as expected at 54.0, reinforcing the narrative that the US economy continues to expand at a healthy pace without generating fresh inflation surprises. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller largely reiterated familiar views, suggesting inflation risks remain skewed to the upside while questioning whether excessive forward guidance benefits markets.
With today’s US calendar offering few major data releases, attention is already shifting towards Wednesday’s publication of the FOMC meeting minutes. Any indication in the minutes that policymakers were open to the idea of policy tightening in the coming months could keep the dollar supported.
Away from economic data, it is worth keeping an eye on crude oil prices which have extended their recovery for the fourth day, as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to simmer following reports of missile attacks involving commercial vessels. Although energy prices have dropped massively from their conflict-driven highs, lingering supply concerns continue to support crude prices around $70 and, by extension, the defensive appeal of the US dollar.
Euro struggles to find fresh drivers The euro’s outlook is becoming increasingly mixed. Today’s publication of German industrial production figures offered an encouraging surprise, with output rising 0.9% in May, helped by stronger automotive manufacturing and construction activity. The resilience suggests Europe’s industrial sector has so far weathered recent geopolitical disruptions better than many had feared.
However, stronger industrial data alone will not be enough to shift monetary policy expectations decisively. Markets continue to debate whether the European Central Bank will need to tighten policy further later this year, with a September rate increase no longer viewed as the most likely outcome.
That said, ECB officials are unlikely to declare victory over inflation just yet. Core price pressures remain elevated enough to warrant a cautious tone, and speeches from senior policymakers this week could reinforce the message that the inflation battle is not yet complete. While that may offer occasional support to the single currency, it is unlikely to outweigh the broader strength currently underpinning the dollar.
EUR/USD forecast: Technical outlook points to further consolidation From a technical analysis perspective, the EUR/USD forecast is pointing towards continued consolidation. The pair was holding above the 1.1410 support area at the time of writing, but should this region give way then that would expose the 1.1300 area for a potential test.
Source: TradingView.com On the upside, 1.1450-1.1470 remains an important resistance area on EUR/USD. Above that 1.1500 handle is the next level to watch ahead of 1.1575 thereafter.
For now, any meaningful upside in the EUR/USD exchange rate would likely require a clear shift in Fed expectations or a significant deterioration in US economic data, neither of which appears imminent. Thus, markets seem comfortable rewarding the higher US yield advantage while volatility remains subdued.
Overall, the EUR/USD forecast continues to favour modest dollar strength over the near term. Unless the upcoming FOMC minutes deliver an unexpectedly dovish message or ECB officials surprise with a more aggressive stance, the pair may remain confined to the lower end of its recent trading range, with sellers likely to emerge on any short term rallies or recovery attempts.
The PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8054, signaling a managed, gradual tolerance for a softer yuan to absorb economic pressures The fix supports orderly yuan movements amid softer growth data, likely maintaining range-bound trading against a resilient US dollar It influences trade competitiveness, commodity demand, and global portfolios, highlighting policy balance between stability and economic support. Foreign exchange traders focused on Asian markets often start their day at 9:15 AM Beijing time. This is when the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announces its daily central parity rate for the yuan, also known as the yuan fixing.
On Tuesday, the PBOC set its daily USD/CNY reference rate at 6.8054. This was weaker than the 6.7838 level that economists surveyed by Reuters had anticipated. While this might appear to be a minor adjustment on paper, in the context of Chinese currency policy, such adjustments frequently convey specific messages.
The daily fixing is central to how Beijing manages its currency, and it allow the yuan to fluctuate within a 2% band. Each day’s rate is analyzed for its implications regarding economic growth, capital flows, and the extent of depreciation that authorities are prepared to accept.
Understanding the Reference Rate Mechanism Every trading day, the PBOC announces a central rate. This rate is determined by looking at a mix of different currencies and what’s happening in the market at the time. Then, people trading currencies are allowed to buy or sell within a certain range around this central rate.
If the central rate is higher (meaning it takes more yuan to buy one dollar), it suggests the yuan is a bit weaker. This can actually help Chinese companies that export goods because their products become cheaper for people buying them from other countries.
On the other hand, if the central rate is set stronger, it makes it cheaper to import things and can help keep prices down for imported goods, especially things like commodities.
Since this number is set administratively, not purely by the market, a stronger-than-expected fix usually signals the PBOC is pushing back against depreciation. Conversely, a weaker fix suggests they’re okay with a softer yuan, often in response to a stronger dollar or slower domestic economic momentum.
Effects on the USD/CNY Pair Currency markets usually react in a measured way. Traders watch closely for any difference between the official fix and what the market expects. If the PBOC sets the rate weaker than anticipated, it can ease pressure for depreciation. A firmer fix might encourage appreciation within the trading band.
Currently, the offshore yuan (USDCNH) has traded around similar levels. This reflects general sentiment about China’s growth path. The World Bank, for instance, projects this growth will slow to about 4.4% by 2026. While the PBOC doesn’t control the offshore yuan, which is what most global investors actually use for transactions, it usually follows the onshore fix quite closely and rarely moves more than a few cents away.
So, when the central rate is set weaker, it doesn’t just affect China. It can put pressure on other countries’ currencies, especially those in emerging markets or Asia that compete with China for trade. A cheaper yuan makes Chinese exports more attractive. It also contributes to a broader trend of a stronger dollar, which influences everything from the prices of commodities to how money is invested across Asia.
The PBOC’s strategies for currency management have significant consequences for international investment portfolios. For global investors, a stable and predictable yuan can act as a stabilizing factor for multinational corporations operating throughout Asia. If Beijing manages currency depreciation in a controlled manner, it can reduce the risk of sudden currency fluctuations impacting other emerging markets.
Why does China manage the yuan’s value?
China manages the yuan’s value to achieve a balance between supporting exports, managing import costs, maintaining financial stability, and pursuing economic growth objectives.
Why does the daily yuan fixing matter so much?
It signals Beijing’s currency priorities. Markets interpret weaker or stronger fixings as indicators of the authorities’ tolerance or resistance to depreciation.
What impact does this have on global investors?
It influences asset valuations, commodity demand, and portfolio risk in China-exposed sectors through currency stability.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $60.95 per troy ounce, down 1.79% from the $62.06 it cost on Monday.
Silver prices have decreased by 14.26% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.75 on Tuesday, up from 67.11 on Monday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Indian Rupee has remained under pressure this year, with the USD/INR exchange rate trading close to 95.30 despite recent signs of stabilisation.
Citi believes decisive action by the Reserve Bank of India should provide near-term support for the Rupee, although it expects the currency to weaken again over the medium term.
The bank has sharply revised its balance of payments outlook, forecasting a surplus instead of a deficit after the RBI introduced measures to attract foreign capital, including concessional swap facilities and incentives for overseas investment.
According to Citi, these policies demonstrate the central bank's willingness to preserve financial stability and reduce depreciation pressure on the Rupee.
The bank expects these inflows to help push USD/INR towards **93.0** in the near term as concerns over India's external position ease.
However, Citi believes this improvement will prove temporary. It forecasts **USD/INR rising back towards 95.0 over the following six to 12 months**, as the boost from capital inflows fades.
Citi expects the RBI's policy measures to provide short-term relief for the Rupee, while cautioning that medium-term performance will depend on the durability of foreign inflows and the broader US Dollar outlook.
Silver (XAG/USD) pulled lower from Monday’s peak and is testing levels below $61.00 at the time of writing, paring some of last week’s gains. A more cautious stance towards the US-Iran peace deal has offset the positive impact of fading hopes of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, posing moderate pressure on precious metals on Tuesday.
Some verbal escalation between the US and Iran has clouded hopes of a swift end to the conflict and soured market sentiment this week. On Tuesday, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned that negotiations on a final deal will not begin if threats continue following comments from US President Donald Trump, who affirmed that the US will reach an agreement or “finish the job” in Iran.
Meanwhile, reports of an attack on an Oil tanker on the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns, pushing investors’ enthusiasm about the lessening chances of immediate Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes to the background.
Technical Indicators: XAG/USD is turning bearish again
XAG/USD trades at $61.16, with momentum indicators entering bearish territory again, following Monday's rejection at the $63.30 area. The Relative Strength Index (14) on the four-hour chart is flirting with the 50 midline, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) dipped below zero and points to waning bullish pressure.
A clear break below the $60.40 session low would expose the 2026 lows between $55.70 and $56.70, which held bears last week. On the topside, initial resistance emerges at Monday's high near $63.33. An unlikely reaction above here would bring the June 22 high, at the $67.15 area, to the focus ahead of the mid-June highs, around $71.50.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
According to data from the People's Bank of China (PBoC), world’s second-largest economy China increases its Gold reserves again.
In June, China Gold reserves at the end of June 2026 were recorded at 75.44 million troy ounce, 0.48 million higher from a month earlier.
In value terms, country's Gold reserves amounted to $303.72 billion at the end of June, down from $340.75 billion in May.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Fed’s rate hike expectations limit gold’s rally potential. Capital inflows into ETFs and central bank purchases are supporting the gold price. The US dollar failed to capitalise on the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Reports of a tanker incident in the Strait of Hormuz are putting US-Iran negotiations at risk. Nevertheless, Brent crude rose only slightly, while the resumption of the S&P 500 rally and the associated improvement in global risk appetite are undermining the greenback’s position.
The futures market is pricing in a 3-in-4 chance of a Fed rate hike in 2026. This is allowing speculators to build up net long positions in the US dollar to their highest levels since 2015, leaving the US currency’s positions vulnerable. No sooner had Kevin Warsh adopted less hawkish rhetoric in Sintra than the markets had anticipated, and the employment figures disappointed, than the EURUSD soared sharply.
Lower chances of a Fed rate hike have allowed gold to find its footing. However, the Sword of Damocles (a potential federal funds rate hike due to persistent inflation) continues to hang over the precious metal. As the risks of an energy shock have receded, the inflationary nature of massive investments in artificial intelligence and weather-related supply chain disruptions remains a reality.
Fears that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy are unlikely to allow gold to return to its record highs in 2026. However, HSBC remains optimistic, expecting that medium-term demand for gold as a means of diversifying investment portfolios, capital inflows into ETFs and increased purchases of bullion by central banks will allow the precious metal to rise.
Indeed, according to the World Gold Council, central banks increased their reserves by 41 tonnes in May, stepping up their bullion purchases. Poland and China were the most active. Since the start of the year, Poland has bought 64 tonnes, Uzbekistan 33 tonnes, China 25 tonnes and Kazakhstan 20 tonnes.
HSBC believes that, in the short term, gold will come under pressure due to the strong US dollar and high yields on US Treasury bonds. In reality, its fate depends on the futures market’s reassessment of the trajectory of the federal funds rate. In this regard, clues from the minutes of the June FOMC meeting are certain to influence gold.
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The US Dollar (USD) trades higher for the second consecutive day against the Swiss Franc (CHF). Downdside attempts remain shallow so far, amid a calm market mood, and the immediate trend shows a mild bullish stance, with resistance at the 0.8075 area under pressure.
On the macroeconomic front, data from the Swiss National Bank revealed that Foreign Currency Reserves rose to CHF759 billion in June, from CHF 711 billion in May.
The Swissie, however, remains weighed by the downbeat employment figures released on Monday, which showed that the Unemployment Rate rose to a five-year high of 3.1%. Later in the day, the US ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) met expectations with solid growth in activity, while the S&P Global Services PMI revealed an unexpected slowdown.
Technical Analysis: Looking for direction above 0.8050
USD/CHF is in a corrective phase after completing a 5-wave (Elliot Wave) bullish cycle, with momentum indicators showing mixed signals. The daily chart reflects a constructive Relative Strength Index (14), near 58, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has slipped marginally into negative territory.
Bulls need to break resistance around 0.8075 (June 26, 30 lows and July 6 high) to confirm the completion of the corrective phase, and shift focus towards the late June and early July highs, between 0.8120 and 0.8135.
On the downside, a bearish reaction below 0.8045 session lows would add pressure towards Friday's trading floor at the 0.8010 area. If this level gives way, an A-B=C-D correction would target the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement off the bullish run, just above 0.7900.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Swiss Franc Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Swiss Franc (CHF) against listed major currencies this week. Swiss Franc was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.10%-0.23%0.37%0.17%-0.06%0.39%0.43%EUR-0.10%-0.36%0.26%0.04%-0.13%0.25%0.28%GBP0.23%0.36%0.50%0.39%0.23%0.61%0.63%JPY-0.37%-0.26%-0.50%-0.24%-0.32%0.02%0.02%CAD-0.17%-0.04%-0.39%0.24%-0.10%0.27%0.24%AUD0.06%0.13%-0.23%0.32%0.10%0.38%0.41%NZD-0.39%-0.25%-0.61%-0.02%-0.27%-0.38%0.02%CHF-0.43%-0.28%-0.63%-0.02%-0.24%-0.41%-0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Swiss Franc from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CHF (base)/USD (quote).
The Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD) exchange rate climbed to its strongest level in around a decade on Monday as persistently weak oil prices continued to undermine the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/CAD was trading at CA$1.8971, having eased back slightly after touching a session high of CA$1.8980.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Canadian Dollar (GBP/CAD): 1.89894 (+0.16%)
Euro to Canadian Dollar (EUR/CAD): 1.623308 (-0.04%)
Dollar to Canadian Dollar (USD/CAD): 1.42169 (+0.12%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) found itself under pressure on Monday, as weaker oil prices continued to weigh heavily on the commodity-linked currency.
Crude has fallen sharply since the US and Iran agreed an interim peace agreement, allowing shipping to resume through the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude – the global benchmark for oil – remains below $72 per barrel, its lowest levels since before the war began in late February and down from its mid-war peak of $113.
This sharp decline in crude has dragged the Canadian Dollar lower in recent weeks, with subdued prices continuing to pressure CAD on Monday.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) enjoyed modest support on Monday as markets continued to unwind the political risk premium that has burdened Sterling in recent weeks.
MP Andy Burnham is largely expected to become the next Prime Minister, without a drawn-out leadership contest unsettling investors.
Burnham has sought to soothe markets since announcing his bid for Labour leader, committing to the government’s existing fiscal rules and laying out ambitious plans for the economy.
GBP investors have responded positively to Burnham’s rhetoric, helping GBP rally as political anxiety eases.
Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: Canadian PMI to Aid the ‘Loonie’? Looking forward, Canada’s latest Ivey PMI is due out on Tuesday afternoon. The survey is expected to reveal another acceleration in economic activity in June, with the index forecast to reach its highest level since September 2025, when it hit a 15-month peak.
If the PMI prints as anticipated, the Canadian Dollar could catch bids.
Meanwhile, oil price movements could continue to influence the commodity-linked ‘Loonie’. If crude prices remain subdued, this could offset the potential upside from the PMI results.
As for the Pound, UK data is in short supply on Tuesday, potentially leaving the British currency to trade without a clear direction.
Oil Rises as Hormuz Risks Offset Saudi Price Cuts and Higher OPEC+ Supply but Bearish Picture Remains Oil prices are rising on Tuesday, recovering from a four-month low near $67 a barrel as renewed concerns over shipping security in the Strait of Hormuz temporarily outweigh expectations of stronger global crude supplies.
Crude rebounded after reports that a tanker transiting the Strait of Hormuz was struck off the coast of Oman, highlighting that security risks remain elevated despite the reopening of the strategic shipping route.
While the Strait has resumed operations, shipping volumes remain below pre-conflict levels and investors remain alert to any disruption that could threaten global energy supplies. As a result, a modest geopolitical risk premium has returned to the market.
However, the broader outlook for oil remains bearish as attention shifts back to rising supply.
Saudi Aramco cut the August official selling price of its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers, signalling intensifying competition for market share at a time when regional supply is recovering.
The move follows OPEC+'s decision to increase August production targets, reinforcing expectations that additional barrels will return to the market during the second half of the year. Combined with improving export flows from the Gulf, the supply outlook continues to point towards a better-supplied oil market, limiting the scope for any sustained recovery in prices.
Oil Forecast – Technical Analysis
Oil broke below its symmetrical triangle pattern and the 200-day SMA, falling to a four-month low near $67 before finding support. The RSI has moved into oversold territory, suggesting the recent sell-off may pause before the next directional move.
While prices have rebounded towards $70, the broader trend remains bearish.
Sellers will look for a break below $67 to expose the February low around $62.50, followed by the psychological $60 level.
Any recovery would first need to reclaim the 200-day SMA near $74. A move above there would bring $80 into focus.
GBP/USD rises for an eigth day, testing a key resistance GBP/USD has climbed to a three-week high near 1.34 as the U.S. dollar weakens following softer U.S. economic data and a moderation in Federal Reserve rate hike expectations.
The dollar has remained under pressure since last week's weaker-than-expected payrolls report, which showed slower job creation across April, May and June than markets had anticipated.
Yesterday's ISM Services PMI reinforced that narrative. While activity remained firmly in expansion territory at 54.0, broadly in line with expectations, the Prices Paid component fell sharply from 71.3 to 67.7, suggesting inflationary pressures continue to ease. At the same time, the employment index improved to 51.2, pointing to a labour market that is cooling gradually rather than deteriorating sharply.
Taken together, the data support the view that inflation may continue to moderate without a significant slowdown in economic activity, reducing the urgency for further Federal Reserve tightening.
Markets now see a 41% probability that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in September, up from 32% a week ago, weighing on the U.S. dollar.
However, sterling's upside may also prove limited as investors have similarly scaled back expectations for further Bank of England tightening. Markets are now pricing around a 70% probability of a single 25-basis-point rate hike this year, compared with expectations for two increases just a few weeks ago.
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey recently reiterated that inflation is expected to return to the Bank's 2% target, although the process may take longer than previously anticipated.
Looking ahead, the UK economic calendar is relatively quiet. The focus will be on the Bank of England's Financial Stability Report. Any indication that policymakers are becoming more concerned about financial conditions or economic risks could reinforce expectations for a cautious policy approach and weigh on sterling.
GBP/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD has rebounded from the 1.3200 support zone, rising to test resistance around 1.3400, where the 50-day and 200-day SMAs converge.
The RSI has moved above 50, indicating improving bullish momentum.
A sustained break above the moving averages would expose 1.3500, where falling trendline resistance and the May swing high converge. A move above that level would create a higher high and open the door towards 1.3650.
Failure to break above the moving averages could see the pair drift back towards support at 1.3330. A break below there would expose the 1.3200 support zone once again.
