Gold is struggling around the $4,500 level in Asia on Thursday after reaching the highest level in 11 weeks at $4,528 in early dealings.
Gold’s bullish bias remains intact ahead of US jobs dataGold refreshed two-month highs above $4,500 as Asian traders returned to their desks and reacted positively to the United States (US) Treasury’s rescue plan announced on Wednesday, after longer-dated Treasury yields shot through the roof and roiled the bond markets.
The US Treasury announced that it will double buyback sizes for 10- to 30-year Treasury debt securities to at least $4 billion per operation.
The increase from the previously planned $2 billion buybacks will apply to the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector and will be effective September 9 through November 4, the department said in a statement.
The announcement offered much-needed relief to the global markets, driving yields and the US Dollar (USD) sharply lower, while providing a fresh boost to non-yielding assets such as Gold.
However, the uptick in Gold was quickly reversed, with the bullion down over 0.50% as of writing, as the USD stalls its overnight slump, drawing support from the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) July policy meeting and the US-Iran stalemate.
Minutes showed growing concern over persistent inflation. Several policymakers were open to raising interest rates, while many said a rate hike could be necessary if inflation fails to move back toward the Fed’s 2% target.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened in a post on Truth Social on Thursday that the US will launch the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country”, declaring economic warfare and isolation on an “unprecedented scale” against Iran.
Calling the campaign an “economic D-Day”, Trump urged US allies to join efforts to isolate Iran. Despite the fresh US warning and fading hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Oil prices remain in an upside-consolidative phase.
Looking ahead, traders await the US Jobless Claims data release for fresh insight into the health of the labor market, following the July Nonfarm Payrolls debacle. Fedspeak and geopolitical headlines will also remain in play.
Only a convincing leg up in Oil prices and/ or a shift in the hawkish sentiment around the Fed could negate the near-term bullish outlook for Gold.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,495.76, holding a bullish near‑term bias as spot prices remain above the 21‑day, 50‑day and 100‑day simple moving averages (SMAs), clustered between roughly $4,164 and $4,380 and reinforcing a supported undertone. However, the 200‑day SMA at $4,512.34 sits just overhead as immediate resistance, hinting at a potential cap on further gains unless decisively reclaimed, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 65 suggests firm but not yet extreme upside momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100‑day SMA near $4,380.25, followed by the 21‑day SMA at $4,240.40 and then the 50‑day SMA at $4,164.36, which together define a broad demand band that could attract dip‑buying in case of a pullback. On the topside, a clear break above the 200‑day SMA resistance at $4,512.34 would open the door for a continuation of the advance, keeping the bullish bias intact while placing the focus on higher psychological levels above the $4,500 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold sentiment brightens as US Treasury support and stagflation risks bolster demandAccording to TD Securities, the precious metals complex is showing “renewed upside” as policy developments and shifting investor flows revive interest in gold. The bank notes that the announcement that the US Treasury is increasing the size of “liquidity support buyback operations” has “given metals a jolt of life,” reinforcing the appeal of bullion in particular.
For gold, TD Securities highlights that “ETF accumulation has also picked back up,” with the recent “string of daily outflows from Chinese ETFs” now having “ended with a return to inflows.” While the “fierce bid has faded in recent days,” the strategists argue that these flows “could quickly return amid Treasury liquidity support, a Fed willing to look through an energy shock, and a growing stagflation narrative, which should all ultimately see lower real rates.”
TL;DR: Gold surged 3.7% to $4,495 after a Treasury buyback shock sent long-end yields and the Dollar tumbling — a real-yield move that survived hawkish FOMC minutes and now puts a break above $4,600 within reach of $5,000.
Treasury Buyback Shock Cracks Long Yields Gold’s path toward $5,000 has become more credible after Wednesday’s Treasury buyback shock triggered a sharp reversal across US yields and Dollar, giving bullion precisely kind of real-rate backdrop needed to extend its medium-term recovery. Gold surged around 3.7% to $4,495 on August 19, its strongest level since early June, while 30-year Treasury yield dropped from this week’s near-two-decade high above 5.33% to around 5.20% and 10-year yield retreated from around 4.75% to 4.65%. Dollar Index simultaneously slid roughly 0.8% to a fresh three-month low near 98.85. Importantly, Gold rose alongside equities and Bitcoin rather than in isolation, pointing to falling real yields and weaker Dollar—not classic risk aversion—as dominant transmission mechanism.
Catalyst was Treasury Department’s unexpected decision to at least double maximum size of long-dated debt buybacks, from $2bn to at least $4bn, targeting 10–20 year and 20–30 year sectors from September 9 through November 4. Actual enlarged operations are still weeks away, yet bond market repriced immediately. That reaction highlights how stretched long end had become after persistent selling pressure. Markets effectively front-ran future liquidity support and relief to duration pressure, driving yields lower before Treasury had purchased a single additional bond.
Hawkish Fed Minutes Couldn’t Reverse the Move More strikingly, rates move survived release of more hawkish-than-expected July FOMC minutes. Several participants favored an immediate hike, many saw further tightening as likely if inflation failed to fall, and some questioned whether financial conditions were sufficiently restrictive.
That makes Gold’s move more significant. Bullion didn’t need a dovish Fed to break higher — the Treasury market did the work instead. Duration repricing was powerful enough to overwhelm a Fed message that, in isolation, should have supported yields and the Dollar.
Worth noting: the minutes themselves reflect a Committee with more hawks than the 9-3 vote alone suggested, though the July meeting is now several weeks stale relative to this week’s developments.
This Was a Real-Yield Move, Not a Debasement Trade Breakeven inflation data provide clearest evidence for underlying mechanism. 10-year breakeven inflation stayed around 2.30% on both August 18 and August 19, even as nominal yields dropped sharply.
With inflation expectations unchanged, decline in nominal yields translated primarily into lower real yields—the more direct textbook support for Gold. That also argues against interpreting Wednesday’s move primarily through currency-debasement lens. Fed minutes were hardly signaling accommodation, inflation expectations did not jump, and identifiable catalyst was Treasury-driven compression in long-duration yields.
Nothing in Aug 19 price action requires a debasement explanation. For now, Gold’s rally is better explained by a specific real-yield shock.
Dollar Breakdown Confirms Gold’s Reversal Dollar chart is reinforcing same story. DXY has broken decisively below 99.41, 38.2% retracement of 95.55–101.80 rebound, strengthening case that advance from 95.55 to 101.80 completed as a three-wave corrective move.
Further decline is favored while 55-day EMA near 100.08 caps recovery, with 97.93, 61.8% retracement, next downside objective.
Gold and Dollar are therefore confirming each other from opposite directions: Gold is breaking medium-term resistance just as DXY is a key near term support. A move in DXY through 97.93 would add further support to Gold’s rally.
Gold 4,600 Is Gateway to $5,000 Gold’s own technical structure has shifted significantly. Larger fall from 5,598.75 increasingly looks to have completed as a triangle at 3,942.43. Daily MACD bullish divergence, break above 55-day EMA near 4,272, and this week’s clean break of descending medium-term trend line all strengthening reversal case.
Near-term outlook stays bullish while 4,324.23 support holds. Next decisive test is resistance cluster between 4,575.31 (38.2% retracement of 5,598.75–3,942.43 decline) and 4,604.74 (61.8% projection of 3,995.82–4,449.73 from 4,324.23).
A clean break of 4,575–4,605 zone would open 161.8% projeciton at 4,778.14 first, followed by 61.8% retracement at 4,966.14—effectively putting $5,000 directly into medium-term view.
Watch 30-Year Yield First, 10-Year Second Rates remain key confirmation. 30-year yield at 5.18% should be watched first, because Treasury buyback impact is concentrated toward long end and this maturity has led latest reversal. Sustained break below 5.18 would indicate duration repricing still has room to run.
10-year support around 4.59% is confirmation level. If 30-year breaks lower while 10-year holds 4.59, move would remain concentrated in long end—still Gold-positive, but less powerful for Dollar. A break of both would signal broader yield compression and strengthen case for DXY extending toward 97.93 while Gold challenges 4,600.
Final check is breakevens. If nominal yields continue falling while inflation expectations stay flat or ease, real yields would compress further and preserve cleanest bullish setup for Gold. If breakevens instead begin rising sharply, story would shift toward inflation repricing and become less straightforward. Track T10YIE/T30YIE alongside the yield levels themselves, not price in isolation.
For now, signal is unusually coherent: long yields are breaking lower, Dollar is breaking support, real yields are compressing and Gold has cleared its medium-term downtrend. $5,000 is not there yet, but decisive break above 4,600 would make it far more than a distant target.
Key Takeaways Gold surged 3.7% to $4,495 after the Treasury unexpectedly doubled its long-dated debt buyback size, triggering an immediate repricing in long-end yields. The move survived hawkish July FOMC minutes, confirming duration repricing, not Fed dovishness, is driving Gold’s rally. Flat 10-year breakevens around 2.30% alongside falling nominal yields point to a real-yield mechanism, not a currency-debasement trade. The DXY has broken below 99.41 support, confirming Gold’s reversal from the opposite direction and opening a path toward 97.93. A break above the 4,575-4,605 resistance cluster would open 4,778.14 and then 4,966.14, putting the $5,000 level within medium-term view.
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Yesterday, I argued that the US dollar was likely to be the key variable in determining whether the breakouts seen in gold and silver earlier this month would extend further or reverse.
The GBP/JPY retreats on Wednesday as the cross-pair fails to climb past 216.00 and fell beneath the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 125.56. The cross-pair trades at 214.25 down 0.37%.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY is neutral biased, with the pair holding below the 50-day SMA, with traders eyeing the 100-day SMA at 214.75, which could’ve opened the door for further losses. The next support would be the 200-day SMA at 212.45, followed by the August 7 low of 211.47.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reveals that sellers are gaining momentum, an indication that bears are in control.
On further strength, the GBP/JPY first resistance is the April 10 high of 216.60, followed by 217.’00. Above this area ists the July 10 high of 218.69, ahead of the July 15 high at 219.61.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.85%-0.50%-0.89%-0.64%-0.52%-0.99%-1.80%EUR0.85%0.33%-0.04%0.21%0.31%-0.20%-0.97%GBP0.50%-0.33%-0.34%-0.13%-0.02%-0.51%-1.31%JPY0.89%0.04%0.34%0.23%0.34%-0.15%-0.96%CAD0.64%-0.21%0.13%-0.23%0.11%-0.38%-1.19%AUD0.52%-0.31%0.02%-0.34%-0.11%-0.49%-1.28%NZD0.99%0.20%0.51%0.15%0.38%0.49%-0.80%CHF1.80%0.97%1.31%0.96%1.19%1.28%0.80% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The US dollar suffered its sharpest decline in three weeks after increased Treasury buybacks drove long-end yields lower. With DXY breaking support and USD/JPY turning lower again, traders are watching whether the move has further to run.
The gold Price jumped above $4,500 and silver surged towards $67 as an unexpected US Treasury intervention sent long-term bond yields and US Dollar sharply lower. Gold and silver prices surged on Wednesday, with both precious metals accelerating higher through the US session after Washington announced an unexpected expansion of Treasury buyback operations.
The Gold price in US Dollars (XAU/USD) rallied to around $4,522 late in the session, a gain of 4.39% from Tuesday's close and close to the day's high.
Image: Gold price today The Silver price recorded an even stronger move, with XAG/USD jumping 6.07% to around $66.73 after opening the session near $63.16.
Lower Treasury Yields Ignite Precious Metals Rally The catalyst came from the US Treasury, which said it would double the size of liquidity-support buyback operations for some longer-dated government bonds.
The announcement drove long-term Treasury yields sharply lower and knocked around 0.8% from the US Dollar index, immediately improving the backdrop for non-yielding precious metals.
Robert Gottlieb, an industry veteran and former head of precious metals at Koch Supply and Trading, said the Treasury announcement was "totally unexpected" and "very bullish for gold", pointing specifically to lower long-term yields and a weaker Dollar.
Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, also highlighted the importance of the reversal in US financial conditions.
"The combination of lower yields and a weaker dollar" was providing gold with a fresh tailwind, Hansen said, reinforcing a recovery that had already been developing since early August.
The Treasury's intervention was significant beyond the precious-metals market.
Michael Lorizio, Head of US Rates and Mortgage Trading at Manulife Investment Management, said the decision represented a "pretty strong acknowledgement" from Washington that demand had become inconsistent at the long end of the Treasury curve.
TD Securities said separately that the announcement had given metals a "jolt of life", with Treasury liquidity support, softer real rates and concerns over stagflation potentially drawing investment flows back towards gold.
Silver Outperforms Gold Image: Silver price today Silver again amplified the move in gold.
Exchange Rates UK intraday data showed XAG/USD holding around $63 through much of the European morning before breaking sharply higher after 13:00 BST and eventually reaching $66.73.
Gold followed a very similar pattern, accelerating from around $4,370 through $4,400 before extending above the psychologically important $4,500 level later in the session.
The scale of Wednesday's rebound was particularly notable after rising bond yields hammered precious metals on Tuesday.
That relationship has been central to ING Commodities Strategist Ewa Manthey's recent assessment of the market. ING warned in June that "higher yields, a stronger dollar and weaker ETF demand" had become important headwinds for gold. Wednesday delivered almost the exact opposite combination.
The broader fundamental backdrop also remains supportive. Middle East uncertainty continues to provide an underlying safe-haven bid, while questions surrounding US fiscal sustainability and continued central-bank gold purchases have prevented investors from abandoning precious metals despite this year's extreme volatility.
Attention will now turn to whether the decline in Treasury yields can be sustained.
The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes showed that several officials were prepared to raise rates in July, while many believed further tightening could still be necessary if inflation remained above target.
Nevertheless, markets currently place around a 65% probability on the Fed leaving rates unchanged in September after recent softer US economic data reduced expectations for another increase.
For gold, holding above $4,500 would strengthen the recovery and bring this year's higher levels back into focus.
Silver's surge towards $67 leaves the metal approaching $70 again, with its stronger percentage gain underlining how quickly XAG/USD can outperform when falling yields and Dollar weakness combine with renewed precious-metals demand.
During today's trading session, the EUR/USD pair has posted a gain of more than 0.8% in favor of the euro, marking one of its strongest bullish moves in recent weeks and once again reinforcing a notable bullish bias in the short term. Buying pressure has remained firm following the release of the Federal Reserve's minutes, which continue to highlight persistent weakness in the U.S. dollar.
Silver (XAG/USD) price reversed course on Wednesday and soared over 5% as US Treasury yields edged lower, following the US Treasury stepping in to cap long-end US bond yields, which had reached levels last seen in 2007. At the time of writing, the XAG/USD pair trades at $66.68 after bouncing off daily lows of $62.19.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookIn the short term, the trend is upward, but it has entered a phase of consolidation between $62.00 and $66.50. If buyers reclaim the top of the range, this clears the path to challenge higher prices.
Momentum remains bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with the index aiming higher toward overbought territory. Hence, Silver’s path of least resistance is upside.
XAG/USD's first resistance is the day's high at $66.74, ahead of $67.00. Above is the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 68.57, followed by the 200-day SMA at $71.88
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
USD/JPY retreated to a familiar area today with the 158 zone quickly coming back into play. This broke a streak of higher-lows and the pair was stepping closer to the 160.00 level before the pullback appeared.
The USD/CHF pair tumbles nearly 2% on Wednesday as a US Treasury buyback announcement sends the Greenback into a tailspin, while US Treasury yields also dive. The pair trades at 0.7979 after reaching a high of 0.8128.
From a technical perspective, USD/CHF is upward-biased after it bottomed at 0.7604 in late January 2026. Since then, the pair has rallied towards a yearly high above 0.8200, before the US Treasury unveiled its bond buyback. This pushed USD/CHF below key support levels, including the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8084, and towards the 100-day SMA at 0.7975.
In the short term, momentum shifted bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell from around 51 to 36.48. This suggests that sellers are gaining steam.
For a bearish continuation, USD/CHF must clear the 100-day SMA, followed by the 200-day SMA, at 0.7932. On further weakness, the next stop is 0.7900.
On the flip side, buyers must reclaim the 0.8000 level before challenging the March 31 high of 0.8042. Above lies the 50-day SMA at 0.8084, followed by the August 13 high of 0.8147.
Swiss Franc FAQs The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone.
The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF.
Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate.
As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.
AUD/USD holds firm near a two-and-a-half-month high on Wednesday, supported by broad US Dollar (USD) weakness, while technical indicators point to further upside. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.7118, up 0.43% on the day, after reaching an intraday high of 0.7129.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, trades near 98.90, down 0.75% on the day and touching its lowest level since May 29.
Strategists at Rabobank "continue to see scope for a shallow uptrend in AUD/USD into next year," with the move higher expected to be "aided by November RBA rate hike risk" and underpinned by Rabobank’s call that "the Fed will avoid tightening policy this year."
Australia’s employment report, due on Thursday, could provide fresh direction for the pair. The economy is expected to add 15K jobs in July, following a gain of 76.3K in June, while the Unemployment Rate is forecast to stay unchanged at 4.4%.
Technical Analysis
AUD/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) clustered between roughly 0.6946 and 0.7065.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart is near 65, suggesting firm but not extreme upside momentum, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains slightly positive, hinting that buyers still control the short-term tone as the pair edges towards overhead resistance.
On the topside, the 0.7150-0.7200 region forms a strong resistance zone. A clear break above this area could open the door to a retest of this year’s peak near 0.7270.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent close around 0.7118, followed by the 100-day SMA at 0.7065 and the 21-day SMA at 0.7036, before deeper demand is expected around the 50-day SMA at 0.6996 and the longer-term 200-day SMA at 0.6946.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Australian Dollar FAQs One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
One of the most notable developments in recent weeks has been the sustained strength of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar. During today's session alone, USD/MXN is down approximately 0.5%, reinforcing the bearish bias that currently dominates the currency pair.
Daily US Government Bonds 30-Year Yield Treasury will raise the maximum size of its buyback operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, targeting the 10- to 30-year sectors. The program begins September 9 and runs through early November. The 30-year yield fell roughly 8 to 10 basis points on the news. The dollar index dropped about 0.7% to 0.8%.
The 30-year had been sitting at a 19-year high. The dollar held firm even as the front end of the curve priced softer data and lower September hike odds. That combination kept sellers in control of silver for three straight sessions. The Treasury announcement hit both at the same time and the reversal was immediate.
Tuesday’s selloff took silver below $64. Monday’s gap lower started the week with a break. Wednesday’s recovery erased both moves in a single afternoon. The speed of the turn says the market was overcrowded on the short side heading into an announcement nobody had positioned for.
The Reversal Started at the 50-Day and Has Not Stopped Silver’s session low at $62.56 came within reach of the 50-day moving average at $61.31 and the 50% level of the all-time high at $60.83. Both held. Aggressive buying turned the market before either level was tested directly.
The $3.50 range from low to high is the kind of move that happens when a market has been leaning too hard in one direction and the catalyst flips. Gold also reversed higher. Both metals had spent the week absorbing pressure from long yields and a firm dollar. When the pressure came off, the buying was not gradual. It was a snap.
Key Points:EUR/USD rallied as traders focused on U.S. bonds' buyback. GBP/USD climbed above 1.3600 as traders reacted to inflation data from the UK. USD/CAD declined towards the 1.3800 level as precious metals markets rallied.
In this article:EUR/USD
+0.78%
EUR/USD ForecastGBP/USD
+0.52%
GBP/USD ForecastUSD/CAD
-0.62%
USD/CAD ForecastUSD/JPY
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USD/JPY Forecast
U.S. Dollar Retreats As Traders Focus On Bond Buybacks
DXY 190826 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index is under strong pressure as U.S. Treasury announced that it would boost buybacks of longer-dated government debt.
The yield of 30-year Treasuries pulled back towards the 5.20% level as bond traders reacted to the announcement. The yield of 10-year Treasuries declined below the 4.67% level.
The American currency is losing ground as debt buybacks pushed longer-term yields lower.
The nearest support level for U.S. Dollar Index is located in the 98.60 – 98.75 range. In case U.S. Dollar Index manages to settle below the 98.60 level, it will head towards the next support at 97.85 – 98.00. It should be noted that RSI is in the oversold territory, so the risks of a rebound are increasing.
EUR/USD Soars After U.S. Treasury Decides To Boost Bond Buybacks EUR/USD 190826 4h Chart EUR/USD rallied as traders focused on U.S. Treasury decision to buy back bonds. The moved showe that Bessent was worried that longer-dated bond market will get out of control.
EUR/USD is moving towards the resistance level at 1.1685 – 1.1700. If EUR/USD manages to settle above the 1.1700 level, it will head towards the next resistance level, which is located in the 1.1775 – 1.1790 range.
GBP/USD Rallies As Traders Focus On UK Inflation Data GBP/USD 190826 4h Chart GBP/USD gained ground as traders focused on general weakness of the American currency. Traders also had a chance to take a look at inflation data from the UK.
Inflation Rate increased from 2.6% in June to 2.9% in July, in line with analyst consensus. Core Inflation Rate remained unchanged at 2.6%, while analysts expected that it would drop to 2.9%.
USD/CAD Tests New Lows
USD/CAD 190826 4h Chart USD/CAD pulled back as traders reacted to the strong rally in precious metals markets. Gold climbed towards the $4500 level, while silver moved towards $66.00. Other commodity-related currencies have also gained upside momentum in today’s trading session.
Currently, USD/CAD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.3825 – 1.3840. In case USD/CAD manages to settle below the 1.3825 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the 1.3735 – 1.3750 range. RSI has recently moved into oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
USD/JPY Moves Away From Weekly Highs USD/JPY 190826 4h Chart USD/JPY pulled back as traders focused on U.S. bonds’ buyback. The Japanese yen is fundamentally weak due to ultra-dovish policy of the Bank of Japan. Falling yields in the U.S. will put pressure on USD/JPY.
However, it remains to be seen whether buyback will provide major support to U.S. bond prices and pushes their yields to lower levels. Meanwhile, shorter-term U.S. Treasuries have found themselves under pressure. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed above the 4.19% level.
The nearest support level for USD/JPY is located in the 157.50 – 158.00 range. If USD/JPY manages to settle below the 157.50 level, it will head towards the next support level at 155.00 – 155.50.
On the upside, a move above the 50 MA at 159.10 will push USD/JPY towards the resistance level at 159.50 – 160.00.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
EUR/GBP trades on the front foot on Wednesday, pushing up to the vicinity of a two-week high near the 0.8570 region as the Euro holds firm against a softer British Pound (GBP). The pair has cleared its recent range after a run of green candles on the 4-hour chart.
The move followed July inflation reports from both economies. UK headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% over the year, a four-month high and up from 2.6% in June, matching forecasts. Core CPI held at 2.6%, a touch hotter than the 2.5% expected. But core services inflation, the gauge the Bank of England (BoE) watches most closely, eased to 3.4% from 3.6%, and that cooling limited Sterling's lift after the release.
On the other side of the pair, the final euro-area reading confirmed headline inflation at 2.9% for July, unchanged from June and still well above the European Central Bank (ECB) target. With price pressure firm and the print in line, the Euro kept its footing.
The backdrop remains a global bond-market squeeze. Longer-dated yields have run to multi-year highs this week on inflation and fiscal worries, with German and UK long-end yields both elevated. US Treasury yields pulled back on Wednesday from those highs as traders square up ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes.
Investors will look for detail on the split at that meeting, where pre-release reporting flagged three dissenters who wanted a rate hike. The tone of the Minutes will steer broader risk sentiment into the European close.
Short-term technical analysis:On the 4-hour chart, EUR/GBP trades at 0.8572, holding a modest bullish bias as it remains above both the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 0.8552 and the 100-period SMA at 0.8559. The cluster of nearby horizontal levels at 0.8561 and 0.8563 reinforces this underlying demand zone, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 68 suggests firm upward momentum that is edging toward overbought territory, hinting at the risk of a short-term pause if buyers hesitate near the current highs.
On the topside, immediate resistance is defined by the recent horizontal barrier at 0.8573, and a sustained break above this level would open the way for further gains in the near term. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 0.8563/0.8561 band, ahead of the 100-period SMA at 0.8559 and the lower horizontal and moving average floors at 0.8558 and 0.8552, where dip-buying interest is likely to emerge while the pair maintains its current constructive structure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Scott Bessent has a wide and storied career in financial markets, and his experience with macro and currency is top-notch. He was, after all, part of the Quantum team along with George Soros that broke the Bank of England now more than 30 years ago.
Gold price surged over 3% on Wednesday, driven by sharp fall in the US dollar, on primarily dovish outlook for the Fed monetary policy action.
Fresh gains show strong attempts for eventual break above eight-day range, defined by $4310 floor, reinforced by daily Ichimoku cloud base ($4358) and range tops at $4440 zone, though several upticks failed to register daily close above Fibo barrier at $4416 (50% retracement of $4889/$3942 bear-leg).
Sustained break higher to generate signal of bullish continuation, with immediate targets at $4509 (200DMA) and $4527 (Fibo 61.8%), while stronger acceleration would focus $4600 (round-figure) and $4666 (Fibo 76.4%).
Daily studies firmed following multiple DMA bull-crosses, strong bullish momentum, while thick daily cloud underpins.
Broken barriers at $4440 (range top) and $4416 (50% retracement) revert to solid supports which should hold potential dips and keep fresh bullish structure intact.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
EURAUD currency pair recently reversed up from the support zone between the support level 1.6260 (which has been reversing the price from July) and the support trendline of the daily Triangle from March.
This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band – which helped form the daily Bullish Engulfing.
EURAUD currency pair can be expected to rise further to the next resistance level 1.6500, which reversed the previous correction (2) at the end of July.
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The Canadian dollar has fallen nearly 2.8% from its June high, down five of the last six weeks against the U.S. dollar. Michael Boutros, Senior Market Analyst at StoneX, reads the Canadian dollar across the weekly, daily and four-hour charts.
AUDJPY has turned nicely lower recently after it made five waves up and confirmed a temporary top around 113.60, as the market came down and broke the channel support this week. Now it looks like we are in a stage for a deeper ABC correction. Usually, it will take us back to the area of the previous wave four, which is already the case, but now that we have a minimum three-wave correction, this setback could continue for a bit longer before it finds some deeper support and completes this corrective wave two setback, maybe next week. That's when we could start seeing some new interesting rebound on this pair, especially if stocks remain in bullish mode, which I personally still see as being in some intraday consolidation.
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Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 2h chart, Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar is interacting with the 0.618 Resistance Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is testing this Resistance Arc, suggesting the potential for a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc.
Metric
Reading
Market Bias
Bullish Acceleration
Preferred Scenario
Potential Breakout / Advance Toward the Next Resistance Arc
Primary Target Zone
4,560
Scenario Invalidation
Sustained close below 4,330
Current Arc Level
Resistance Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status
Testing Resistance Arc
Arc Integrity
Weakening
Market outlookPrice is testing the 0.618 Resistance Arc, where continued buying pressure could result in a breakout toward the next Resistance Arc. A sustained breakout above the Resistance Arc would support continued movement toward the next Resistance Arc (0.786 Arc).
Conversely, failure to achieve a sustained 2h close above the Resistance Arc would invalidate the bullish scenario and could shift the outlook toward the next Support Arc.
USD/JPY The US dollar against the Japanese yen has been a bit negative for the session, but when you zoom out, you can see it’s still very much overall in recovery against the Japanese yen since that intervention. I think we’re probably stuck in a consolidation area for a while; that makes sense. A lot of traders may be nervous about the Bank of Japan.
A Longer-Term Fundamental Conviction Trade For me, if it falls, I just buy more. It’s a longer-term fundamental conviction type of trade until something changes, and that something would take a lot. Ultimately, the interest rate differential is very wide, and you have a situation where the Japanese have their back against the wall.
So, something’s going to have to give here. We got a little bit sneak preview of that over the last several months. I’ve been long of this pair multiple times. A bounce here has me adding a small position onto an existing core position.
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold is edging higher early Wednesday as traders try to recover from Tuesday’s setback. Earlier in the session, gold dipped below Tuesday’s low at $4324.68, but strong buying prevented the market from challenging last week’s swing bottom at $4311.04. A trade through this level would have changed the trend to down and shifted momentum to the downside.
The short-term range is $4409.83 to $4311.04. Its midpoint at $4360.44 is the level to watch today. Buyers have already reclaimed this level as buying strengthened. The move has driven gold into the long-term 50% level at $4416.00. Overtaking this level with conviction could trigger a surge into the swing top at $4449.83.
Over $4449.83 is $4481.78. This price is 20% down from the all-time high at $5602.23. It is the level that some analysts say marked the start of the bear market. Overcoming it will take gold out of bear-market territory, but it will not mean a new bull market has begun.
The next upside objective is to recapture the 200-day moving average at $4509.26. Overtaking this level could bring in new institutional money and further extend the rally.
What to Watch Gold got the dollar and yield relief it needed after Tuesday’s break. The 30-year pulled back from above 5.33% to 5.204%. The dollar dropped below 99.50. The metal reclaimed the midpoint of its short-term range and is pressing resistance at $4416. That recovery means nothing if the FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT read hawkish enough to reverse the pullback in yields and the dollar.
Crude holding near three-week highs keeps the inflation risk in front of the Fed. The 30-year yield paused. It has not reversed. Gold is trading between a front end that supports the recovery and a long end that can take it away the same way it did Tuesday. The swing bottom at $4311 held on the test this morning. The 200-day moving average overhead at $4509 is where the trade changes. The minutes decide which level matters next.
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The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.2% to near 1.3557 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher as the US Dollar faces selling pressure, with traders scaling back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets due to weak United States (US) economic data for August.
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT. Read more...
British Pound edges up within range following hotter UK inflation dataThe British Pound (GBP) ticked up against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, following the release of UK inflation data. The GBP/USD pair has returned to the mid-range of the 1.3500s on Wednesday, trading a few pips above 1.3550 at the time of writing, although it remains trapped within previous days’ range, below the 1.3570 resistance area.
Data released by National Statistics on Wednesday revealed that UK inflation accelerated in line with market expectations in July. UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at a 0.3% rate on the month and 2.9% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) from 0.1% and 2.6% respectively last month. The Core CPI grew at a 2.6% Y-o-Y rate, unchanged from the previous month, against the market consensus for a downtick to 2.5%. Read more...
British Pound shows limited reaction to expected increase in UK headline inflationThe British Pound (GBP) reflects a slight market action against the Japanese Yen (JPY) near its day’s low at around 215.70 after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July.
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has reported that the headline inflation accelerated to 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, from 2.5% in June. The core CPI – which excludes volatile components of food, energy, alcohol and tobacco – grew at a steady pace of 2.6% YoY, while it was expected to slow down to 2.5%. Read more...
Gold (XAU/USD) trades moderately higher on Wednesday and returns to the $4,370 area, after finding buyers near the $4,300 area on Tuesday. A broad-based US Dollar weakness amid lower US yields ahead of the release of July’s Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting is providing some support to precious metals, although the technical picture hints at fading bullish momentum.
Analysts at OCBC agree that “gold’s rebound has lost some momentum as the renewed rise in oil prices added to pressure from higher long-end US yields,” with the move in both markets curbing the metal’s recent advance. Looking ahead, OCBC experts affirm that “for the gold rally to regain traction, oil and yields need to stabilise, or a stronger pickup from investment demand,” suggesting near-term performance will hinge on whether inflation-related drivers and investor flows turn more supportive.
Technical Analysis: Tuesday's bearish engulfing candle is a bearish sign
XAU/USD trades at $4,367 at the time of writing after bouncing from $4,324.Tuesday's bearish engulfing candle in the daily chart, however, is a bearish sign that hints at a potential trend shift. Momentum indicators remain in bullish territory but highlight a waning impetus, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) pulling back below 60 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram showing contracting bars.
On the downside, immediate support aligns with the August 14 low, at $4,311, followed by a broader demand area around $4,220 (June 22 high, August 6 low).
Bullish attempts, on the other hand, are likely to face significant resistance at the area between the top of the last two weeks' trading range, around $4,450, and the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,510. Beyond that, the next resistance is at the late May highs, near $4,600.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Silver (XAG/USD) stabilizes around $63.45 on Wednesday, up 0.16% on the day at the time of writing. The white metal is attempting to regain its footing after hitting an intraday low of $62.19, initially extending the pullback that followed Tuesday’s rejection from the $66.50 area.
Silver remains under pressure in a cautious market environment as investors monitor the deteriorating situation in the Middle East. The Memorandum of Understanding between the United States (US) and Iran expired on Monday, while US President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that no talks with Tehran are currently taking place.
Disruptions to maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are also keeping tensions elevated in the energy market, reinforcing concerns about the conflict's inflationary consequences. This prospect could complicate the task of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and limit its room to tighten monetary policy.
Investors now await the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) July meeting, due on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT, for fresh clues about the path of US interest rates.
Since that meeting, weaker-than-expected labor market and inflation data have reduced expectations of a September rate hike. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets now price in only a 32% chance of an increase at the next meeting. This shift helps limit pressure on precious metals, which tend to benefit from expectations of less restrictive monetary policy.
At the same time, inflation risks stemming from the energy shock continue to support the possibility of further monetary tightening over the longer term. US Treasury yields therefore remain elevated despite a modest decline on Wednesday, limiting the appeal of non-yielding Silver.
The release of the Fed Minutes could therefore provide the next catalyst for Silver as markets assess the balance between softer US economic data, inflation risks stemming from the Middle East conflict and the future path of interest rates.
XAG/USD technical analysisIn the one-hour chart, XAG/USD trades at $63.46, retaining a capped near-term tone as it holds beneath the 100-period simple moving average (SMA) at $64.74 and the 200-period SMA at $64.65. The proximity of the immediate horizontal barrier at $63.50 reinforces overhead supply just above spot, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 44.51 stays below the neutral 50 line, hinting that recovery attempts could remain limited for now.
On the topside, initial resistance is located at $63.50, ahead of the 200-hour SMA at $64.65 and the 100-hour SMA at $64.74, with a stronger hurdle emerging at the prior horizontal cap near $66.80. On the downside, first support appears at $62.60, with a deeper cushion seen at $61.00, where buyers would be expected to show more interest if the current pullback extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
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Silver has had one of its strongest months in years, but this week’s price action shows just how fragile precious metals rallies can be when bond markets get nervous. The metal surged nearly 10% last week after July’s Non-Farm Payrolls badly missed expectations, printing a loss of 23,000 jobs, prompting markets to price out any chance of a September Fed hike and reviving safe-haven demand.
That momentum reversed on Tuesday, however, with silver dropping toward $64 as global bond yields spiked to multi-year highs on mounting concerns over government spending and persistent inflationary pressures. Rising oil prices added to the unease, keeping inflation risks firmly in focus even as rate-hike expectations continue to fade.
Beneath the volatility, the structural picture remains supportive: silver continues to draw solid demand from the green energy transition, solar panels, electric vehicles, and AI data centre infrastructure, all keeping a floor under prices. All eyes now turn to the Fed’s July meeting minutes and Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole, both expected to offer fresh clues on the path ahead for rates.
Technical Analysis of XAG/USD
As XAG/USD chart shows, silver broke above its descending trendline from June’s highs in early August, a genuine shift after weeks of decline, and has since been holding above the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement near 62.88, right where the 200-period EMA also sits nearby at 62.27. The broader recovery has been building on an ascending trendline off the mid-July lows.
Bullish Scenario
Should buyers defend this 0.382-EMA confluence and push higher, the path would open toward a retest of the 66.73 highs, the 0 Fibonacci level marking the origin of the entire decline. A confirmed break above that zone would signal the correction is fully over.
Bearish Scenario
Conversely, a break below the 0.382 retracement and the ascending trendline would expose the 0.5 level near 61.69, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 0.618 retracement around 60.49, or even the triangle apex near 56.64 if selling pressure accelerates.
With price sitting right at the intersection of a reclaimed trendline, the 200-period EMA, and a key Fibonacci level, silver looks poised for a decisive move, will this recovery extend toward fresh monthly highs, or does the recent bond market turmoil drag the metal back into its prior range?
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USD/JPY held around 159.53, with the Japanese yen trading sideways for more than a week. The currency has lost approximately half of the gains made following the joint intervention by Tokyo and Washington at the end of July.
Pressure on the yen persists due to a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.
At the same time, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of Japan rate hike in September to support the yen and contain inflation. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds climbed to 30-year highs this week, reflecting expectations of near-term policy tightening and concerns over the state of public finances.
Core machinery orders rose 9.7% in June, significantly exceeding forecasts and providing further support for expectations of tighter policy while signalling robust business capital expenditure.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 159.49 level, currently extending down to 159.20. A move higher to 159.49 is expected today, followed by a decline to 159.00. A break below this level would open the way for a correction towards 158.54. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and trending downward.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has moved up to 159.65. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. A downside breakout would open the way for a move lower to at least 159.00. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion USD/JPY remains range-bound as the yen struggles to sustain gains from the late-July intervention. The currency has given back roughly half of its post-intervention appreciation, weighed down by persistent fundamental headwinds. However, markets are increasingly pricing in a September rate hike from the Bank of Japan, supported by rising bond yields and stronger-than-expected machinery orders data. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 159.00 and potentially 158.54 before its next directional move. The yen’s outlook will depend on Bank of Japan policy signals, US economic data, and the trajectory of energy prices.
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The precious metal could rise in tandem with Treasury yields. The BoJ’s accelerated tightening will support the yen. The new Fed Chair wants the markets to do the central bank’s job for him. If the number of supporters of his position increases, the chances of a rate hike in 2026 will fall, weakening the greenback. Recently, the US dollar has retreated amid concerns that the July FOMC meeting minutes will show that Kevin Warsh’s approach is working.
His passivity is one of the drivers behind the rally in long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007. Other reasons include concerns about the budget deficit, rising inflation due to the conflict in the Middle East, and the diversion of funds towards artificial intelligence. To finance AI-related expenditures, companies are issuing bonds, diverting capital from the Treasury market and raising Treasury yields.
Surprisingly, rising interest rates on debt are not preventing gold from continuing its climb. Even though there are occasional slumps, such as the one seen on 18 August, which was the sharpest fall in nearly a month, investors believe that the rise in Treasury bond yields has more to do with selloffs driven by fears over the budget deficit than with hopes for the strength of the US economy. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that debt service costs will rise from an average of 2.1% of GDP over the past half-century to 3.3% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2036. Concerns about US financial stability are helping the metal to rise.
Additionally, according to a Bank of America survey, the proportion of investors who consider gold undervalued has risen to its highest level since March 2023.
Other currencies have capitalised on the weakness of the US dollar. The bulls failed to break through the resistance level at 159.5 on USDJPY, and the pair retreated. According to Mizuho Financial Group, the Bank of Japan will raise its overnight rate from 1% to 1.25% as early as September, and will then accelerate the cycle of monetary tightening, taking a new step every three months rather than every six. The main reason for this is that borrowing costs remain negative, whilst inflation stands at 1.6%.
The yen is also being supported by the fact that yields on Japanese government bonds are rising faster than those on US bonds. They have reached their highest level since 1996. This is contributing to capital repatriation and a fall in the USDJPY exchange rate.
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The British Pound (GBP) is up 0.2% to near 1.3557 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair trades higher as the US Dollar faces selling pressure, with traders scaling back Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike bets due to weak United States (US) economic data for August.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.29%-0.20%-0.37%-0.22%0.10%-0.13%-0.29%EUR0.29%0.08%-0.07%0.09%0.39%0.14%0.01%GBP0.20%-0.08%-0.13%0.00%0.34%0.07%-0.08%JPY0.37%0.07%0.13%0.15%0.45%0.21%0.06%CAD0.22%-0.09%-0.00%-0.15%0.30%0.06%-0.09%AUD-0.10%-0.39%-0.34%-0.45%-0.30%-0.24%-0.37%NZD0.13%-0.14%-0.07%-0.21%-0.06%0.24%-0.14%CHF0.29%-0.01%0.08%-0.06%0.09%0.37%0.14% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Meanwhile, investors await the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July policy meeting, which will be published at 18:00 GMT.
Dollar steadies as FOMC minutes eyed for limited hawkish surpriseAnalysts at ING highlight that “for today, the focus will be on tonight's release of the FOMC minutes for the July meeting,” noting that the earlier decision saw “the vote… 9-3 for unchanged rates and the event proved a dovish one for the short end of the US curve and the Dollar, while the long end sold off.” ING argues that “the suspicion is that the 12-member FOMC is less hawkish than the participants whose projections delivered forecasts of a 9:9 split for a hike in the June set of Dot Plots.” As a result, while they concede “there may be a few hawkish references in tonight's minutes that could nudge the Dollar and short-dated rates a little firmer,” they stress that “we do not see the minutes as a game changer.”
Ahead of the FOMC minutes, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.26% lower to near 99.38, close to its two-month low of 99.29 posted on Monday.
On the United Kingdom (UK) front, the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July has come in higher at 2.9% Year-on-Year (YoY), as expected, from 2.6% in June. The core CPI growth remains steady at 2.6% YoY, while it was expected to cool down to 2.5%.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD trades near 1.3560. The pair maintains a bullish near-term bias as spot holds above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.3475 and the former resistance trend line, now acting as support around 1.3436.
The Relative Strength Index (14) near 64 stays in positive territory, hinting at sustained upward momentum without yet reaching extreme overbought conditions.
On the downside, the immediate support emerges at the 20-day EMA at 1.3475, followed by the trend-line break level near 1.3436. On the topside, the pair needs to break above the three-month high at 1.3571 to extend the advance towards 1.3600, followed by the May high at 1.3658.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, is a measure of consumer price inflation – the rate at which the prices of goods and services bought by households rise or fall – produced to international standards. It is the inflation measure used in the government’s target. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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The Bank of England is tasked with keeping inflation, as measured by the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) at around 2%, giving the monthly release its importance. An increase in inflation implies a quicker and sooner increase of interest rates or the reduction of bond-buying by the BOE, which means squeezing the supply of pounds. Conversely, a drop in the pace of price rises indicates looser monetary policy. A higher-than-expected result tends to be GBP bullish.
The new Fed Chair wants the markets to do the central bank’s job for him. If the number of supporters of his position increases, the chances of a rate hike in 2026 will fall, weakening the greenback. Recently, the US dollar has retreated amid concerns that the July FOMC meeting minutes will show that Kevin Warsh’s approach is working.
His passivity is one of the drivers behind the rally in long-term Treasury yields to their highest levels since 2007. Other reasons include concerns about the budget deficit, rising inflation due to the conflict in the Middle East, and the diversion of funds towards artificial intelligence. To finance AI-related expenditures, companies are issuing bonds, diverting capital from the Treasury market and raising Treasury yields.
Surprisingly, rising interest rates on debt are not preventing gold from continuing its climb. Even though there are occasional slumps, such as the one seen on 18 August, which was the sharpest fall in nearly a month, investors believe that the rise in Treasury bond yields has more to do with selloffs driven by fears over the budget deficit than with hopes for the strength of the US economy. Indeed, the Congressional Budget Office forecasts that debt service costs will rise from an average of 2.1% of GDP over the past half-century to 3.3% in 2026 and 4.6% in 2036. Concerns about US financial stability are helping the metal to rise.
Additionally, according to a Bank of America survey, the proportion of investors who consider gold undervalued has risen to its highest level since March 2023.
Other currencies have capitalised on the weakness of the US dollar. The bulls failed to break through the resistance level at 159.5 on USDJPY, and the pair retreated. According to Mizuho Financial Group, the Bank of Japan will raise its overnight rate from 1% to 1.25% as early as September, and will then accelerate the cycle of monetary tightening, taking a new step every three months rather than every six. The main reason for this is that borrowing costs remain negative, whilst inflation stands at 1.6%.
The yen is also being supported by the fact that yields on Japanese government bonds are rising faster than those on US bonds. They have reached their highest level since 1996. This is contributing to capital repatriation and a fall in the USDJPY exchange rate.
Summary: Gold gains as dollar weakness, fiscal worries and rising Japanese yields support the metal and the yen, while Fed and BoJ policy expectations steer markets.
The AUD/JPY has pulled back after a strong uptrend, with the momentum attributed to short-term profit-taking. However, the pair’s broader uptrend remains intact Joint interventions have not helped the yen much and stubborn inflation is a significant concern for Japan’s policymakers Despite the recent dip, the wide interest rate gap between the RBA and BoJ continues to favour carry trade in the long-term The AUD/JPY currency pair climbed for over ten straight days from its early August low around 110.14. It started falling on Tuesday, though, and has kept dropping into today’s trading session.
Earlier this month, the pair rose from roughly 110-111 to a high near 113.27-113.65. It’s since dropped, however, to about 112.64-112.72. This move signals a break in the prior upward trend.
So, is this the start of a bigger downtrend? What’s making the yen stronger? And what does it mean for carry traders?
Is Momentum Shifting Lower? Recent price movements point to a short-term pause, not a full trend reversal. The pair still trades above important long-term moving averages across various analyses, and the overall trend since the August lows still suggests a recovery.
However, technical indicators on medium-term charts, however, look more cautious. Some suggest short-term selling pressure has built up after the rapid ascent.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on daily charts has moved back toward the 50-52 range. This doesn’t automatically signal a bearish divergence. Instead, it likely shows the pair correcting from overbought conditions after a long period of gains
Reuters reports the Bank of Japan (BOJ) is getting ready to raise interest rates as early as its September 17-18 meeting. Policymakers might even speed up the pace of hikes beyond the current rate of about twice a year.
Policymakers are reportedly growing more concerned about ongoing inflation, strong global demand driven by AI, and the yen’s persistent weakness, even after joint currency interventions. Bank of America has even raised its year-end forecast for the yen, noting intervention needs faster rate hikes to be truly effective.
Implications for Carry Traders The AUD/JPY is among the most popular currency pairs in carry trade. Traders usually borrow Japanese yen, with its low interest rates, to buy the Australian dollar, which offers higher returns. This rate difference made the pair appealing over the last year. But when the exchange rate falls, that advantage shrinks, and traders often adjust their positions.
If you’re already holding long-carry positions, the recent drop means your investments are worth less on paper. It also raises the risk of further selling if prices keep falling. If the carry trade loses its appeal, some investors might trim their holdings or look to hedge more.
On the other hand, if the pair stabilizes or starts to climb, the carry trade strategy will regain its appeal. This is especially true if Australian economic data stays strong and the Bank of Japan slowly tightens its monetary policy. When these shifts happen, the pair can become more volatile as traders adjust their leveraged positions.
Has AUD/JPY momentum clearly turned bearish?
It is not yet confirmed. The current decline follows a strong multi-session rally and looks like consolidation before a potential break of key support.
What is driving the yen’s recent strength?
Market expectations for a Bank of Japan rate hike are up, there are lingering effects from late-July intervention, and policy outlooks differ when compared to Australia.
How does this affect carry trades?
A falling AUD/JPY cuts the profit from borrowing yen to hold Australian dollars. This can prompt leveraged traders to reduce their positions.
The Pound-Australian Dollar could recover if UK inflation revives BoE rate hike bets, while softer Australian wage growth may weigh on the Aussie. The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate was subdued on Tuesday as markets digested the UK's latest employment figures.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.9045. Down slightly from the start of Tuesday’s opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.9045 (-0.05%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) faced headwinds on Tuesday, as the UK's latest jobs report raised concerns over the strength of the UK labour market.
According to data published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the UK's unemployment rate held at 4.9% in June, above forecasts it would drop to 4.8% as the UK economy added almost half the number jobs added in May.
The accompanying wage growth figures also sapped Sterling sentiment as average earnings slowed from 4.4% to 4.1%.
The soft employment data, particularly the slowdown in wage growth, came as a disappointment to GBP investors as it underpins expectations the Bank of England’s (BoE) may sit out the current hiking cycle.
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fluctuated on Tuesday, amid shifting risk sentiment and upbeat domestic data.
AUD exchange rates initially firmed through Tuesday’s Asian trading session, after Australian consumer confidence improved more than expected this month and even stuck its highest level since March.
However, the 'Aussie' was forced to relinquish the bulk of these gains by the start of the European session, with the high-yield currency struggling to sustain its support as rising energy prices and geopolitical uncertainty sapped market risk sentiment.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Rising Inflation to Revive Sterling? Looking ahead to the middle of the week, the Pound Australian Dollar exchange rate may catch bids with the release of the UK's consumer price index.
July's CPI figures are forecast to report inflationary pressures began to build again in July, after previously easing for three consecutive months.
This could push Sterling higher if it keeps hopes alive for a BoE rate hike before the end of 2026.
In the meantime, the release of Australia's latest wage price index could dent the 'Aussie' if a moderation of wage growth in the second quarter is seen as weakening the case for further interest rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Euro-Dollar is struggling to clear 1.1630, with MUFG warning the EUR/USD looks overvalued as European gas and growth risks build. The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has climbed back towards 1.1600, but the move is starting to look less convincing once valuation and Europe's energy exposure are brought into the picture.
EUR/USD traded around 1.1597 early on Wednesday after reaching 1.1614 earlier in the week.
Softer expectations for Federal Reserve tightening should, on paper, have given the Euro more room to run. It hasn't quite happened.
MUFG sees the hesitation as significant.
“The 200-day moving average is offering resistance at 1.1630,” the bank said, noting that the best level reached on Monday was 1.1614. “We do certainly sense a high level of caution in buying EUR/USD.”
Image: EUR/USD 48h chart EUR/USD has recovered from below 1.1570, but the latest advance still leaves the pair short of the 1.1630 area highlighted by MUFG.
The more striking warning comes from MUFG's valuation model.
“Our short-term regression model for EUR/USD already indicates current spot is about 2.5%-3.0% overvalued,” the bank said.
That is the awkward part. The Dollar has lost some rate support, yet MUFG argues the Euro is already trading richer than underlying short-term fundamentals justify.
Energy is central to the concern.
European gas storage is running just below the range seen in comparable years since 2011, while delayed winter purchases risk becoming more expensive as Asian LNG demand competes for supply.
MUFG also points to unusually low river levels across the Rhine, Danube, Loire and Po. That is not merely a transport problem. Lower waterways can disrupt industry, food production and power generation at the same time.
“If the refilling period continues to disappoint ahead of winter, a more severe terms of trade hit is likely,” MUFG warned.
Near and Medium-Term EUR/USD Outlook: ING Still Sees 1.18 ING is cautious about the immediate upside too, although its medium-term conclusion is notably more bullish.
“Yesterday's EUR/USD rally stalled shortly above 1.16, and investors will be reluctant to push it much higher given energy price developments,” ING's Chris Turner said.
ING also thinks the Dollar is “not quite ready to make a sustained break lower just yet”, with higher energy prices and long-dated US Treasury yields offering support. It expects DXY to remain broadly inside 99.40-100.00 in the near term.
Still, the bank keeps EUR/USD at 1.17 for end-September and 1.18 for year-end, based on its view that the Fed does not raise rates.
Image: EUR/USD forecast outlook The wider bank consensus also leans higher, with the median path reaching around 1.18 by Q2 2027, although the full forecast range stretches from roughly 1.10 to 1.21.
So there are really two EUR/USD stories here.
ING still sees a route higher once Fed tightening risk fades.
MUFG is warning that the Euro may already have run ahead of the near-term fundamentals, especially if Europe's energy bill starts climbing again.
For the immediate trade, 1.1630 looks like the line that matters.
USD/JPY held around 159.53, with the Japanese yen trading sideways for more than a week. The currency has lost approximately half of the gains made following the joint intervention by Tokyo and Washington at the end of July.
Pressure on the yen persists due to a wide interest rate differential, rising fiscal risks, and elevated energy and import costs.
At the same time, markets are increasingly pricing in a Bank of Japan rate hike in September to support the yen and contain inflation. The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds climbed to 30-year highs this week, reflecting expectations of near-term policy tightening and concerns over the state of public finances.
Core machinery orders rose 9.7% in June, significantly exceeding forecasts and providing further support for expectations of tighter policy while signalling robust business capital expenditure.
Technical analysis
On the H4 USD/JPY chart, the market is forming a consolidation range around the 159.49 level, currently extending down to 159.20. A move higher to 159.49 is expected today, followed by a decline to 159.00. A break below this level would open the way for a correction towards 158.54. The MACD indicator supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and trending downward.
On the H1 chart, USD/JPY has moved up to 159.65. A consolidation range is currently forming below this level. A downside breakout would open the way for a move lower to at least 159.00. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 50 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionUSD/JPY remains range-bound as the yen struggles to sustain gains from the late-July intervention. The currency has given back roughly half of its post-intervention appreciation, weighed down by persistent fundamental headwinds. However, markets are increasingly pricing in a September rate hike from the Bank of Japan, supported by rising bond yields and stronger-than-expected machinery orders data. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 159.00 and potentially 158.54 before its next directional move. The yen’s outlook will depend on Bank of Japan policy signals, US economic data, and the trajectory of energy prices.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $63.10 per troy ounce, down 0.38% from the $63.35 it cost on Tuesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 11.23% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 69.02 on Wednesday, up from 68.42 on Tuesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Commerzbank FX analysts Norman Liebke and Michael Pfister see the Brazilian Real (BRL) supported by the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) hawkish stance and still-elevated real interest rates. They expect USD/BRL to stay under pressure ahead of the October presidential election as markets price political risk, before appreciating again with forecasts of 5.20 by year-end 2026 and 4.80 by end-2027.
Real pressured then seen appreciating"As last year, the Brazilian Central Bank’s (BCB) hawkish stance has contributed to the real’s strong performance this year."
"With energy prices remaining high, market participants now expect the benchmark interest rate to be around 14% by year-end, which is in line with the current level."
"Despite the high real interest rate, the BCB has successfully convinced the market that there will be no more than one additional rate cut this year."
"In our view, the real is likely to remain under pressure against the US dollar until the presidential election in October, and inflation and interest rate trends will not resume their dominant role in BRL performance until after the election."
"Given the Brazilian central bank’s relatively hawkish stance, the real is likely to continue appreciating, so that USD/BRL should stand at 5.20 by the end of the year, once political risks have subsided, and at 4.80 by the end of 2027."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Data from the Office for National Statistics showed that UK inflation accelerated in line with expectations last month. July CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, up from 0.1% and 2.6% respectively in June.
