MUFG’s Derek Halpenny says the ECB’s latest communication supports a likely September rate hike, now almost fully priced, but warns that Euro support may fade as energy costs rise. He sees increased downside risks for the Euro versus the Dollar, with EUR/USD’s break below 1.1400 and weaker European data contrasting with a more resilient US economy.
ECB path priced as Euro risks grow"The ECB message yesterday in our view certainly pointed to the prospect of another rate hike in September. While the statement acknowledged that energy prices remain close to baseline assumptions, the comment that the “full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to play out” gave some balance with concerns still elevated over achieving price stability."
"Bloomberg released one of its sourced articles (from people familiar with the matter) confirming a hike in September unless the inflation outlook improves “markedly”. The fact that some Governors considered whether a hike was needed yesterday reinforces the prospect of a September hike."
"Who knows how the Middle East pans out but even if crude oil prices start to decline again, we are unlikely to see a marked improvement in the outlook by then and hence a hike from the ECB is very likely, consistent with our call. That’s close to fully priced now."
"The US dollar gained broadly yesterday but we certainly see increased downside risks for the euro and the pound if the energy markets continue the current pace of increases. One energy space that looks increasingly different is the natural gas market with prices surging and are already have hit the peaks in March."
"Momentum points to further gains for the US dollar while technically the clearer break of 1.1400 in EUR/USD adds to short-term bullishness. The previous high for DXY at 101.80 is now in sight and a break there would be another bullish sign."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
HomeTechnical AnalysisIntraday Analysis 24.07.2026 JPY remains under pressure
USDJPY hits multi-month high
The Japanese yen remains pressured after the pair broke to another fresh high. The bullish bias remains intact even though the pair has hit some resistance.
The bullish mood means that pullbacks have been opportunities for the buy side to stake in. The greenback is testing the next target at 163.30. Another breakout would cement the dollar’s supremacy and pave the way for a rally towards 164.00. On the downside, 162.60 is the first support, with 162.00 a critical bottom.
GBPUSD finds support
Cable was given a boost after the recent downward spiral lifted price action, after finding some support.
A fall below 1.3400 was a sign of profit-taking after bulls struggled to push back, putting a dent in the short-term mood. However, Sterling still has an edge from the intraday chart perspective. A recent bounce to prevent a test at 1.3320 has seen buyers re-enter the market with a slight uptick in bids. The brief support-turned-resistance of 1.3400 is the level to lift before cable can create an uptrend towards 1.3550. UK 100 falls from its peak
The FTSE is left licking its wounds after hitting a heavy rejection to prevent another move higher.
A push towards the previous swing high of 10760 put the bulls on the attack, before retracing. The latest downtick could continue towards 10625, should bears attract more sellers. 10550 is the next level lower should the sell-off continue.
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ING’s Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report that Gold has come under pressure as higher Oil prices stoke inflation concerns and push yields and the US Dollar higher. They note that safe-haven demand has been limited despite geopolitical risks, with recent gains driven mainly by dip-buying and short covering. The analysts see $4,000/oz as a key near-term support level.
Higher yields and Dollar weigh on bullion"Gold fell as escalating tensions in the Middle East pushed energy prices higher, raising concerns that inflation could remain elevated and keep monetary policy restrictive for longer."
"Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, gold has struggled to attract meaningful safe-haven demand since the conflict began. Instead, markets have focused on the inflationary implications of higher oil prices and the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates."
"Brent crude climbed back above $100/bbl, lifting Treasury yields and the US dollar and weighing on non-yielding assets like gold. Recent strength in bullion appears driven largely by dip-buying and short covering."
"This follows the sharp correction from record highs earlier this year. The rebound has since lost momentum."
"Gold is hovering around the key $4,000/oz support level. However, elevated oil prices and rising yields are likely to cap any recovery, leaving $4,000/oz as the key near-term level to watch."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Silver (XAG/USD) edges up on Friday's early European trading session, returning to levels above $58.00 as the US Dollar trims some gains. The precious metal is set to a moderate recovery this week, but the risk-averse scenario triggered by the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the higher US Treasury yields triggered a 4.3% reversal on Thursday that leaves Silver vulnerable to further depreciation.
Market sentiment remains unfavourable, with Oil prices rallying and Brent crude drawing closer to the key $100 level, as reports of attacks on vessels in the Red Sea increased concerns about the blockade of another key corridor for Oil supply. Investors' fears that a new energy shock will boost inflation pressures have sent US Treasury yields to multi-month highs, pushing the US Dollar higher across the board and weighing on the yieldless precious metals.
Meanwhile, a report from Axios suggests that US President Trump would be pondering a "massive attack" on Iran that might further entangle the conflict, increasing demand for the safe-haven Greenback.
Technical Analysis: The reverse trendline has capped bears
XAG/USD trades at $58.33, holding within the last two weeks' horizontal range, with downside attempts supported above the broken trendline from June highs. Momentum indicators endorse the neutral near-term bias, with the Relative Strength Index (14) hovering around 51 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) holding slightly in negative territory, hinting that buying pressure is moderate rather than impulsive.
Bulls, however, will have to breach the top of the mentioned range, at the $60.70-$60.90 area, and the early July highs, around $62.50, to confirm a trend shift. On the downside, first support emerges at the broken trendline, now at $56.50, with additional protection at the year-to-date low of $54.77. Further down, the 127.2% Fibonacci retracement of the mid-June selloff at $50.26 emerges as the next target.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The USD Index remains positive after bouncing off the 100.50-100.60 support area and recapturing the 101.20 level. Current quotes around 101.33 sit above the 50-EMA (at 101.06) and the 100-EMA (at 100.97), which indicates buyers have been taking charge. The DXY’s rising trend line is continuing to act as support, and the current reading at RSI 60 suggests there is room for further upside, with no imminent signs of overbought conditions.
The first resistance is at 101.65, followed by 102.06 and then 102.42. On the lower side, the new support comes in at 101.20, with the 100.50 and 99.92 areas attracting buyers.
Provided DXY sustains above 101.20, the uptrend is on track and another leg higher towards 101.65-102.06 may be in the cards. The bullish perspective would fade if the DXY were to slide below 100.50 and open the way for further losses towards 99.92.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis: Bears Remain in Control Below Key Resistance
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate fell to a near one-month low on Thursday after stronger-than-expected Australian employment figures boosted the ‘Aussie’.
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading around AU$1.9091, having recovered from an intraday low of approximately AU$1.9066.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD): 1.911595 (-0.12%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.332 (-0.41%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthened during Thursday’s Asian trading session following the release of Australia’s latest employment report.
The data showed employment increased by 76,300 in June, comfortably beating forecasts for a rise of 15,000.
The stronger-than-expected labour market reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could continue raising interest rates later this year.
However, the risk-sensitive ‘Aussie’ struggled to hold onto all of its gains as a cautious market mood weighed on demand during European trade.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) remained subdued as markets continued to assess Andy Burnham’s first week as Prime Minister.
Sterling had strengthened in the run-up to Burnham entering Downing Street as investors unwound the political risk premium previously built into the currency.
However, the Pound has since trended lower amid ongoing questions over how the government's spending commitments and tax cut pledges will be financed.
This uncertainty continued to limit Sterling on Thursday.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: PMI Surveys in Focus Looking ahead, Friday's Asian session brings Australia's preliminary PMI surveys.
If private sector activity slowed to near-stagnation in July, as expected, the Australian Dollar could face renewed pressure.
European trading then begins with the UK's June retail sales figures. A forecast 0.3% contraction in sales could weigh on Sterling.
Later in the morning, attention turns to the UK's preliminary PMI surveys, with investors particularly focused on the services reading. Any improvement in business activity could provide the Pound with modest support.
Meanwhile, broader market risk appetite and UK political developments are also likely to influence GBP/AUD trading, potentially leading to increased volatility.
The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Thursday as investors continued to assess Prime Minister Andy Burnham's first week in office while awaiting fresh economic data.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3362, down marginally on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.3319 (-0.42%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.137743 (-0.30%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 163.85814 (+0.47%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) traded with modest losses on Thursday as markets continued to assess Andy Burnham’s first week as Prime Minister.
Sterling had rallied ahead of Burnham’s arrival in Downing Street as investors unwound the political risk premium previously priced into the currency.
However, the Pound edged lower this week amid lingering concerns over how the government's new spending commitments and tax cuts will be financed.
Losses in Sterling were somewhat limited by hopes that the proposed measures could support economic growth.
Plans including a 20% cut in business rates for pubs, clubs and music venues in England, alongside lower VAT on household energy bills, helped temper some fiscal concerns, although GBP investors remained cautious.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) lacked clear direction as a quiet US economic calendar and mixed market sentiment left the safe-haven currency rangebound.
While global markets remain concerned about the escalating conflict in the Middle East, broader risk appetite has proved surprisingly resilient despite the worsening geopolitical backdrop.
Some investors continued to hope that diplomatic efforts could eventually produce a peace agreement, although optimism appeared to be fading.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: PMI Surveys in the Spotlight Looking ahead, the UK's June retail sales figures will be the first major release on Friday.
Economists expect sales to have fallen by 0.3%, which could place the Pound under pressure.
Attention will then turn to the UK's latest PMI surveys, with the services index expected to be the key focus for Sterling investors. Any improvement in business activity during July could help support the Pound.
Meanwhile, the US S&P Global PMI surveys will be released later in the day. While typically less influential than the ISM reports, stronger-than-expected readings could still provide the US Dollar with additional support.
The USD/CAD pair trades in negative territory near 1.4075 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Escalating conflicts in the Middle East boost crude oil prices, supporting the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the US Dollar (USD).
Oil prices spiked after Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels attacked oil tankers in the Red Sea, threatening a key export route that Saudi Arabia has used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump said that the US would hold Iran responsible for the Houthis’ actions and warned that Iran and its Houthi allies would both soon receive a “major military punishment.”
It is worth noting that Canada is a major oil-exporting country, and high crude oil prices generally have a positive impact on the Loonie.
The preliminary readings of the US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) will be in the spotlight later on Friday. If the report shows stronger-than-expected outcomes, this could help limit the Greenback’s losses in the near term.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, USD/CAD keeps the bullish vibe, with the price holding above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). However, the pair slips back under the 20-day Bollinger SMA, signaling a loss of immediate topside traction after the recent spike. The 14-day Relative Strength Index at 47.9 sits just below the midline, hinting at directionless momentum in the near term as neither bulls nor bears currently dominate.
On the topside, initial resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger SMA around 1.4130, ahead of a stronger barrier at the upper Bollinger Band near 1.4262. On the downside, the lower Bollinger Band at approximately 1.4000 offers the first line of support, with the 100-day SMA at 1.3875 reinforcing a deeper demand zone if selling pressure extends.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Us trade comments ease concern over Canada tariffsStrategists at Scotiabank highlight a more constructive tone from US officials on the latest tariff measures, noting that US Trade Representative Greer “offered some hope that the latest tariff blast from Washington would not undermine US/Canada trade relations in the long run and that talks could make progress towards a broader agreement before year-end.” This, they suggest, helps temper market anxiety around the bilateral trade outlook even as currency markets continue to track the broader US Dollar trend.
Canadian Dollar FAQs The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
OCBC’s Sim Moh Siong and Christopher Wong note Gold has retreated back toward USD 4,040/4,050 after briefly trading above 4,160 as Brent surged past USD100 and the Dollar and US yields climbed. They say Gold’s tentative recoupling with geopolitical risk remains fragile, with the metal still trading mainly through the Oil and rates channel and facing two-way risks around nearby support and resistance.
Geopolitics outweighed by Oil and yields"Gold was unable to sustain its recent rebound, falling back toward 4040/50 levels after briefly trading above 4160 in the previous session."
"Gold fell back toward 4,040/50 levels as Brent broke above USD100 and both the USD and US yields moved higher, suggesting its tentative recoupling with geopolitical risk was not yet durable."
"Rather than benefiting from the renewed geopolitical risk, gold once again traded through the oil/rates channel."
"Losses were also broad-based across the precious metals complex, as silver, platinum and palladium fell. The reversal suggests the earlier signs of gold recoupling with geopolitical risk were not yet durable, with the metal remaining sensitive to further increases in oil, yields and rate expectations."
"Mild bullish momentum on daily chart intact but RSI fell. 2-way risks. Resistance at 4070 (21 DMA), 4167. Support at 4000, 3960 levels."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Australian Dollar (AUD) trades marginally higher at around 0.6976 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair edges up, but is broadly weak, as surging US Treasury yields due to the revival of hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate expectations dampens investors’ risk appetite.
As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields trade firmly at around 4.70%, the highest level seen in over 18 months. S&P 500 futures trade cautiously near Thursday’s low at around 7,404, reflecting a risk-off market mood.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of the Fed delivering an interest rate hike in the policy meeting next week stand at 33.7%, significantly higher than 11.8% recorded last week. Fed’s interest rate hike prospects were also higher at around 34% a month ago, but they eased later after the release of the soft US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June.
Surging oil prices due to risks of a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, critical chokepoints that are collectively responsible for 27% of global energy supply, have boosted inflation projections, a scenario that forces central banks to advocate tight monetary conditions.
Higher US bond yields have also strengthened the US Dollar. At press time, the US Dollar index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near the three-week high at around 101.50.
On the domestic front, Australian employment data for June and the flash S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for July have come in stronger.
On Thursday, the labor market report showed that the economy created 76.3K fresh jobs, significantly higher than 44K in May. Earlier in the day, Australian Composite PMI arrived at 52.6, higher than 50.4 in June.
AUD/USD technical analysis
AUD/USD trades marginally higher at 0.6975, hovering right on the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 0.6975, which acts as a pivotal line for the near-term trend.
The pair is consolidating after recovering from late-January lows, and the neutral stance is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding just below the 50 mark around 49, hinting at balanced but still fragile momentum.
The Aussie pair might see a fresh upside towards 0.7100 if it breaks above the July 21 high at 0.7027. Looking down, the pair would be exposed to the June 30 low at 0.6865 once it breaks below the July 14 low at 0.6913
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global, is a leading indicator gauging private-business activity in Australia for both the manufacturing and services sectors. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the Australian private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Australian Dollar (AUD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for AUD.
UOB Global Economics & Markets Research reports that EUR/USD slipped 0.3% to 1.1377 as the Euro (EUR) weakened against the US Dollar (USD) despite the European Central Bank (ECB) leaving rates unchanged and President Lagarde acknowledging some calls for a hike. Markets interpret her comments and Bloomberg’s take as pointing to a bias toward further tightening, with September seen as a likely window for another move.
Lagarde hints at possible September move"The European Central Bank’s (ECB) at its July monetary policy meeting, held its policy interest rates unchanged in a unanimous decision, as widely expected."
"And while the decision was unanimous, ECB President Lagarde told reporters that some colleagues raised the question of whether to act now and pledged to look closely at new data over the coming weeks."
"While the ECB stuck with its standard insistence on taking a “meeting-by-meeting” approach to setting monetary policy, Bloomberg noted the remarks amount to the clearest sign yet that policymakers are minded to keep tightening, not least with war flaring up again in the Middle East, and the Sep meeting is widely seen as a natural point to deliver another move, backed by new quarterly staff forecasts, inflation prints for the two prior months and more economic data including several business surveys."
"The euro also weakened against the USD, even as ECB Lagarde was seen to be signalling a potential tightening in the Sep meeting."
"The EUR/USD closed the session down at 1.1377 (from 1.1412), a 0.3% depreciation."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
We’re heading into the final sessions of the week, and gold continues to hint at a bullish reversal. Admittedly, it also sits close to confirming its next leg lower, leaving a fine line between bullish and bearish scenarios around the 4,000 level—a key area the gold trading community is likely watching.
For a broader perspective, I recently published a couple of StoneX articles examining gold's seasonality in Q3 and market positioning. In a nutshell, seasonality tends to turn more supportive in July before strengthening further in August, delivering a higher historical win rate and stronger average returns.
With gold already down around 30% from its peak to the recent low, the potential for a technical recovery appears reasonable. That is especially true given how unpopular this view has proven on social media whenever I have raised it. As a contrarian, I see that as an encouraging signal rather than a reason for caution.
View related analysis:
US Dollar Rally Builds Momentum, Crude Oil Holds the Key Australian Dollar Jumps as Employment Data Backs RBA Hawkish Bias Japanese Yen Outlook: USD/JPY Breaks Out in Style, GBP/JPY and CAD/JPY in Focus Nasdaq Could Look to KOSPI for Directional Clues Beyond Earnings Gold Futures (GC) Technical Analysis The downtrend on the weekly chart hardly needs pointing out, given gold has fallen by nearly a third this year. Yet for the past four weeks, bears have repeatedly failed to push prices sustainably below 4,000. Weekly trading volumes have also been declining, which is not what we'd typically expect during a grizzly bear market. Meanwhile, the gradual reduction in long futures positions suggests the decline may be a longer-term correction rather than the start of a multi-year top.
A bullish hammer formed three weeks ago, and prices have yet to retest its low. Heading into the final sessions of the week, price action is also shaping a potential inverted hammer around the 4,000 level. Until we see a decisive break or daily close beneath the recent swing lows, I remain on guard for a meaningful bounce.
Crude Oil and the US Dollar Remain the Biggest Risks to Gold Bulls The fly in the ointment is, of course, the stronger US dollar. However, if tensions in the Middle East begin to ease, it could pave the way for a pullback in the US dollar and provide gold with the catalyst for a rebound. That said, I still favour further gains in the US Dollar Index towards 102. If that scenario plays out, gold could first retest its recent swing lows before the anticipated bullish reversal unfolds
The October low around 3900, 100-week EMA (3776.4) and the September VPOC (3680.6) are the next major support levels should gold prices full break down. But if prices can hold above recent swing lows, resistance sits around 4200 and 4300.
Source: COMES, ICE, TradingView
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of FOREX.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
Eyes on 4,000 as We Head into the Weekend Sentiment is clearly against gold in the near term, after it fell more than 1% on Thursday for its worst daily performance in eight sessions. But the major support level around 4,000 is difficult to ignore. I suspect many traders will feel the same way, which could be compounded by portfolio managers looking to hedge with gold ahead of the weekend.
The risk of a gap higher in oil prices is genuine this weekend, which could of course weigh on sentiment on Monday. But if portfolio managers do use gold as a hedge, it may hold above recent lows to some degree—or at least attempt to.
From a purely technical perspective, dips towards 4,000 could prompt at least a minor rebound. However, for any bounce to have real legs, weaker crude oil prices and a softer US dollar are likely to be required.
The short‑term Elliott Wave outlook in Gold (XAUUSD) indicates that the rally to $4204 marked the completion of wave ((B)), after which the metal turned lower in wave ((C)). The internal subdivision of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a five‑wave structure. Within this sequence, wave (1) ended at $3983.2. The subsequent rally in wave (2) developed as an expanded flat formation. From the wave (1) low, wave A advanced to $4103.7, followed by a pullback in wave B that reached $3959.3. The final leg, wave C, extended higher to $4166.07, completing wave (2) at a higher degree.
From this point, the metal resumed its decline in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at $4099.03, while the corrective rally in wave ((ii)) concluded at $4141.05. The expectation is for Gold to extend two additional lows to complete wave ((v)) of 1. Once this sequence finishes, the market should rally in wave 2 to correct the decline from the July 22 high of wave (2). This corrective phase will precede the next bearish leg.
Gold (XAU/USD) 60-minute Elliott Wave chart
In the near term, the pivot at $4204.6 remains decisive. As long as this level holds, rallies are expected to fail within three or seven swings, reinforcing the downside bias. The structure highlights continued weakness and suggests further bearish potential in the short horizon.
Gold prices fell in Philippines on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,011.38 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,053.62 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 93,443.10 per tola from PHP 93,935.79 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,011.38
10 Grams
80,112.95
Tola
93,443.10
Troy Ounce
249,181.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 485.90 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 488.74 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 5,667.48 per tola from SAR 5,700.55 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
485.90
10 Grams
4,859.03
Tola
5,667.48
Troy Ounce
15,113.27
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in United Arab Emirates on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 475.75 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) per gram, down compared with the AED 478.15 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to AED 5,549.10 per tola from AED 5,577.09 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in AED
1 Gram
475.75
10 Grams
4,757.54
Tola
5,549.10
Troy Ounce
14,797.62
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in United Arab Emirates by adapting international prices (USD/AED) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Pakistan on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 35,996.38 Pakistani Rupees (PKR) per gram, down compared with the PKR 36,175.62 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to PKR 419,854.70 per tola from PKR 421,945.30 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PKR
1 Gram
35,996.38
10 Grams
359,963.30
Tola
419,854.70
Troy Ounce
1,119,613.00
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Pakistan by adapting international prices (USD/PKR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Malaysia on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 530.45 Malaysian Ringgits (MYR) per gram, down compared with the MYR 533.01 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to MYR 6,187.02 per tola from MYR 6,216.88 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in MYR
1 Gram
530.45
10 Grams
5,304.46
Tola
6,187.02
Troy Ounce
16,498.91
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Malaysia by adapting international prices (USD/MYR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,504.78 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,566.10 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 145,853.30 per tola from INR 146,568.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,504.78
10 Grams
125,047.80
Tola
145,853.30
Troy Ounce
388,942.40
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
British Pound rebounds above 1.3300 ahead of UK Retail Sales dataThe GBP/USD pair recovers some lost ground to near 1.3325, snapping the five-day losing streak during the Asian trading hours on Friday. However, the potential upside might be limited amid heightened military tensions in the Middle East. Traders brace for the release of the UK Retail Sales data, which will be published later on Friday.
Renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could underpin the US Dollar (USD) as a safe-haven currency. The US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it launched its 13th consecutive night against Iranian targets. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the US would hold Iran responsible for the Houthis’ actions and warned Iran and its Houthi allies would both soon receive a “major military punishment,” per the Guardian. Read more...
British Pound Sterling slides for a sixth session on a Dollar story Britain had no part inSterling's sixth consecutive losing session arrives without a single domestic headline behind it, and that absence is the more useful fact about Thursday than the 0.45% loss itself. GBP/USD trades near 1.3300 after setting a high just short of 1.3400 in the small hours and grinding lower through everything that followed.
The move belongs entirely to the Dollar, which is being bought for reasons that have nothing to do with Britain. A currency does not lose six sessions running on coincidence, but it can lose them without ever being the subject of the story. Read more...
GBP/USD Price Forecast: Struggles to return above 20-day EMAThe British Pound (GBP) trades marginally higher to near 1.3387 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair edges higher as the US Dollar drops despite surging oil prices in the wake of escalating Middle East energy supply risks.
At press time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades 0.15% lower to near 101.00. Read more...
The AUD/JPY cross trades in positive territory around 114.25 during the early European trading hours on Friday. The Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens against the Japanese Yen (JPY) on a strong Australian employment report for June.
Australia’s Unemployment Rate stayed at 4.4% in June, according to the official data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday. The figure came in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the Employment Change came in at 76.3K in June from a rise of 44K in May (revised from 40.3K), better than the forecast of a 15K increase.
Nonetheless, fears of currency intervention from Japanese authorities could lift the JPY and cap the upside for the cross. Japan’s Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said on Friday that officials are ready to act appropriately on currency shifts whenever necessary. Katayama added that the authorities are prepared to take decisive steps on the foreign exchange.
Technical Analysis:In the daily chart, AUD/JPY retains a bullish bias as price holds firmly above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger Bands’ 20-day SMA, keeping the broader uptrend intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 suggests firm positive momentum, edging toward overbought territory and hinting that upside progress could slow as buyers confront nearby resistance.
On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the Bollinger upper band around 114.70. A decisive break above the latter would open the way to the June 2 high of 114.92.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the June 16 high of 113.55. The next contention level is located at the Bollinger middle band at 112.95, followed closely by the 100-day SMA at 112.85; a sustained move below these levels would signal a deeper correction toward the lower Bollinger band around 111.22.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Audjpy faces seasonal headwinds into late summerAccording to TD Securities, seasonal patterns argue for caution on AUD/JPY over the coming months. The bank highlights that the cross has "historically experienced bearish seasonality in July and August," noting that in particular, "the pair was down in August 71% of the time over the past 20 years for an average loss of -1.5%." TD Securities suggests this track record reinforces the case for a more defensive stance as the market moves deeper into the late-summer period.
Japanese Yen FAQs The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.
One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.
Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.
The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.
TL;DR: Gold and Silver tumbled as markets returned to the oil-rates relationship that governed Q2, with Brent above $100 and 10-year Treasury yields above 4.7% restoring pressure on the metals — leaving their next move hostage to Trump’s binary decision on Iran.
Why This Matters Gold and Silver tumbled as markets returned to trading precious metals through the oil-rates relationship that governed markets in Q2. Brent’s move above $100 lifted inflation expectations, while the US 10-year Treasury yield surged beyond 4.7%. Investors responded by extending higher-for-longer Fed pricing, restoring pressure on non-yielding assets after a brief period in which geopolitical demand had insulated them from rising yields.
That earlier resilience this week now looks like a temporary anomaly rather than a durable shift in intermarket relationships. Attention has moved from the war itself to the economic consequences of the war. Higher oil threatens to keep inflation elevated, stronger inflation would push the Fed toward tightening, and rising Treasury yields increase the relative appeal of interest-bearing assets over Gold and Silver.
Trump’s Binary Choice on Iran With that relationship restored, Gold and Silver are now highly exposed to US President Donald Trump’s next decision on Iran. As the conflict enters its fifth month without a clear end in sight, Trump is reportedly becoming increasingly frustrated and impatient, and leaning toward greater use of force rather than extended diplomacy. Additional US forces, medical units, and weaponry are also being moved into the region, increasing the risk that the next step will be dramatic rather than incremental.
Trump appears to face an binary choice: a major military escalation, potentially including deployment of ground forces, or a negotiated settlement. Either outcome could produce an abrupt move in oil. What matters for precious metals is that the current oil-rates transmission is likely to remain intact, amplifying Gold and Silver’s response in either direction.
Escalation scenario: Stronger oil would lift inflation expectations, reinforce expectations that the Fed must keep rates high, and push Treasury yields higher — intensifying pressure on Gold and Silver and potentially accelerating their declines. Settlement scenario: Falling oil would ease inflation concerns and drag yields lower, creating conditions for a strong rebound in both metals. Direction therefore depends on Trump’s choice, but the current macro relationship points to a clear transmission in either scenario.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Gold Gold’s rebound from 3,959.42 to 4,166.08 this week looks more like another leg within the triangle consolidation from 3,942.23 than the start of a sustained recovery. Price is still well below the falling 55-day EMA, reinforcing the view that the decline from 4,889.24 is not complete. An eventual break of 3,942.23 is favored, targeting the 38.2% projection of 4,889.24 to 3,942.23 from 4,166.08 at 3,804.32, followed by the 61.8% projection at 3,580.82. Even in the case of another rebound, the outlook will stay bearish while the 38.2% retracement at 4,303.98 holds.
ActionForex’s Technical View on Silver Silver’s rebound from 54.77 was slightly stronger than expected, but it remained well below the 63.25 structural resistance and comfortably under the falling 55-day EMA. Another decline through 54.77 is still expected, with the $50 psychological level the next target. That area is close to the 76.4% retracement of 28.28 to 121.83 at 50.35. A break of 63.25 is needed to provide the first sign of bottoming; otherwise, downside risk will continue to dominate.
Key Takeaways The oil-rates relationship that drove Q2 trading has reasserted itself, ending the brief window in which geopolitical demand insulated Gold and Silver from rising yields. Brent above $100 and 10-year yields above 4.7% are the two levers now driving precious metals sentiment. Trump’s Iran decision is effectively binary — escalation or settlement — and both scenarios transmit cleanly into oil, yields, and metals. Gold’s structure favors an eventual break of 3,942.23, targeting 3,804.32 and then 3,580.82, while 4,303.98 caps any bullish reassessment. Silver needs a break of 63.25 to signal bottoming; until then, $50 remains the next downside target.
ActionForex
ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
EUR/JPY extends its gains for the fourth consecutive day, trading around 186.50 during the Asian hours on Friday. The currency cross is maintaining a bullish near-term bias as price holds above both the nine-period and 50-period Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). The positioning above these trend filters, together with a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) around 60, suggests constructive upside momentum while stopping short of overbought territory.
The daily chart technical analysis shows an ascending triangle has morphed into a rising wedge, signaling a shift from bullish accumulation to market exhaustion, typically indicating a strong bearish reversal risk.
The EUR/JPY cross is positioned within the rising wedge, with targeting the upper boundary around 186.80. Further advances would support the currency cross to navigate the region around the all-time high of 187.95, which was recorded on April 17.
On the downside, the initial support lies at the nine-day EMA of 185.94, with additional backing at the 50-day EMA of 185.26, aligned with the lower boundary of the rising wedge. Further declines below the wedge put downward pressure on the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the five-month low of 181.87, recorded on March 16, and the seven-month low of 180.81.
EUR/JPY: Daily Chart(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Euro Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.09%0.00%-0.03%-0.06%-0.08%-0.12%0.03%EUR0.09%0.06%0.02%-0.02%-0.06%-0.09%0.06%GBP-0.01%-0.06%-0.02%-0.07%-0.11%-0.12%0.01%JPY0.03%-0.02%0.02%-0.02%-0.07%-0.09%0.04%CAD0.06%0.02%0.07%0.02%-0.04%-0.08%0.07%AUD0.08%0.06%0.11%0.07%0.04%-0.02%0.09%NZD0.12%0.09%0.12%0.09%0.08%0.02%0.13%CHF-0.03%-0.06%-0.01%-0.04%-0.07%-0.09%-0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Gold (XAU/USD) attracts sellers for the second straight day on Friday and weakens further below the $4,050 level during the Asian session. Escalating US-Iran tensions remain supportive of elevated crude oil prices, fueling inflation fears and bolstering expectations of higher-for-longer US interest rates. This, in turn, helps the US Dollar (USD) to preserve its strong weekly gains to a nearly one-month high, touched on Thursday, and turns out to be a key factor undermining the non-yielding bullion.
The US military announced that it has completed another round of strikes against Iran on Thursday, marking the 13th straight night of operations. In a statement, US Central Command (CENTCOM) said that its forces targeted “Iranian military command centers, drone storage facilities, communication networks, coastal surveillance sites, and maritime capabilities.” The attack was aimed at diminishing further the threat Iran poses to civilian mariners and commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The latest strikes come amid a widening regional confrontation, with Iran and its allies launching retaliatory strikes against US-linked military assets in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan. Moreover, Iran-aligned Houthi forces struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, describing the action as part of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and extending the Middle East war to a second major shipping chokepoint. This exacerbates supply disruption concerns and lifts crude oil prices to a fresh high since June 11.
Investors remain worried that elevated crude oil prices will rekindle inflationary pressure and force major central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), to adopt a more hawkish stance. Adding to this, data released on Thursday showed that US Jobless Claims fell to the lowest level since September 1969, pointing to a resilient labor market. This should allow Fed officials to keep their focus on containing inflation, which backs the case for at least one interest rate hike move by the end of this year.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump imposed sweeping new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 of the country's key trading partners, covering 99.4% of US imports. The latest developments threaten to reignite a global trade war, tempering investors' appetite for riskier assets and further benefiting the Greenback's reserve currency status. This, in turn, backs the case for an extension of the XAU/USD pair's pullback from a two-week top, set on Wednesday, as the focus shifts to the FOMC next week.
XAU/USD 4-hour chart
Gold turns vulnerable after failing near 200-EMA on H4From a technical perspective, this week's failure near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the subsequent fall suggest that the recent bounce from the $3,960-$3,959 area, or the monthly low, has run out of steam. Adding to this, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is in negative territory, with the line deeply below zero, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 41, hinting that downside momentum remains in play.
Some follow-through selling below the $4,000 psychological mark and the $3,980-$3,975 support will reaffirm the negative outlook, setting the stage for deeper losses. Meanwhile, intraday floors are likely to be determined by prior price reactions rather than well-established indicator-based levels. On the topside, initial resistance is defined by the 200-period EMA at $4,158.08, and only a sustained recovery above this medium-term barrier would start to ease the prevailing downside pressure.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.40%1.04%0.92%0.44%-0.13%0.96%1.05%EUR-0.40%0.64%0.45%0.03%-0.53%0.56%0.64%GBP-1.04%-0.64%-0.20%-0.61%-1.14%-0.08%0.05%JPY-0.92%-0.45%0.20%-0.39%-0.99%0.00%0.24%CAD-0.44%-0.03%0.61%0.39%-0.53%0.39%0.66%AUD0.13%0.53%1.14%0.99%0.53%1.09%1.22%NZD-0.96%-0.56%0.08%-0.00%-0.39%-1.09%0.13%CHF-1.05%-0.64%-0.05%-0.24%-0.66%-1.22%-0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Gold is nursing heavy losses incurred on Thursday, keeping its range near $4,050 early Friday. Despite the recent retracement, Gold remains on track to register its first weekly gain in three.
Gold could see further correctionGold witnessed a steep 2% corrective downside on Thursday, after having reached two-week highs of $4,166 earlier in the week.
The sharp Gold price pullback could be attributed to heightened inflation concerns and the resultant increase in hawkish expectations around the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate hike outlook, following the widening of the US-Iran war in the Middle East that sent Oil prices back to six-week highs or toward $100 per barrel.
Fears over two of the world’s busiest shipping corridors being under threat in the same month are driving the black gold through the roof.
According to TD Securities, the broader macro backdrop is still not supportive of a sustained build-up in bullion positions, with the bank arguing that “there are no fundamental reasons to think that the U.S. rate and FX environment will be conducive to increasing long gold exposure any time soon.” The firm cautions that geopolitical tensions are also feeding into this dynamic, noting that “it is likely that the Middle East war-driven oil price increases will continue to increase the probability of a Fed rate hike,” a combination that, in their view, leaves the near-term risk-reward for additional long gold exposure looking increasingly constrained.
Meanwhile, the US military carried out a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, targeting drone facilities, coastal surveillance sites, etc.
It came after US President Donald Trump said he was close to deciding whether to launch “a massive attack” against Iran, on a scale larger than strikes already witnessed in the past five months.
Trump also warned earlier of “major military punishment” against Iran and the Houthis, after the Iran-backed Yemeni militia attacked two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea.
The focus now turns to the global preliminary business PMI data due later in the day, which could underscore the impact of the war on the manufacturing and services sectors worldwide.
Any disappointment in the PMI readings could revive the US Dollar’s (USD) appeal as a haven, weighing further on Gold.
Gold traders could also resort to profit-taking and position readjustment after the recent recovery and ahead of the July Fed interest rate decision due next Wednesday.
However, if trade tensions intensify, the Greenback could take further beating, limiting the corrective decline in Gold.
The US announced on Thursday that it is imposing new tariffs on around 60 trading partners, ranging from 10% to 12.5%, as a temporary 10% tax on foreign goods introduced earlier this year expires.
All in all, Gold will remain at the mercy of the USD dynamics and Oil price action, as markets remain wary over Trump’s threat and escalating Middle East tensions heading into the weekend.
At the same time, Gold’s daily technical setup reinforced the bearish bias, following the confirmation of the Bear Cross while momentum turned downbeat again.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades around $4,030 and remains under clear pressure, capped below the 21-day simple moving average (SMA) at $4,068.50 and the 50-day SMA at $4,231.04. The pair sits well beneath the longer-term 100-day SMA at $4,479.88 and 200-day SMA at $4,494.74, which reinforces a bearish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (14) around 44 stays in neutral-to-soft territory, hinting that downside momentum is present but not yet overstretched.
On the topside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near $4,068.50, followed by a more significant barrier at the 50-day SMA around $4,231.04. Above there, the 100-day SMA at $4,479.88 and the 200-day SMA at $4,494.74 define a dense resistance zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease the broader bearish tone. With no clear moving-average support levels below the current price in this dataset, any fresh decline would likely seek direction from emerging horizontal or Fibonacci floors rather than established trend supports.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Economic Indicator S&P Global Composite PMI The S&P Global Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging US private-business activity in the manufacturing and services sector. The data is derived from surveys to senior executives. Each response is weighted according to the size of the company and its contribution to total manufacturing or services output accounted for by the sub-sector to which that company belongs. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the private economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
USD/JPY started a fresh increase above 163.20 and 163.50. A key bullish trend line is forming with support at 163.00 on the 4-hour chart. EUR/USD is struggling below the 1.1450 resistance zone. WTI Crude Oil prices rallied further above $92.00 and $92.50. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar started a fresh increase from 162.65 against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY cleared the key hurdle at 163.20 to enter a bullish zone.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair settled above 163.20, the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour), and the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour). The pair traded as high as 163.98 and started a consolidation phase.
On the upside, the pair could face resistance near 164.00. The next major resistance might be 164.40. A close above 164.40 could start another steady increase.
In the stated case, the bulls could aim for a move to 165.00. Any more gains might open the doors for a test of 165.20. If there is a downside correction, the pair might find bids near 163.50. The first major support could be near 163.20.
The main support might be 163.00. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at 163.00. A downside break and close below 163.00 might send the pair toward the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour) at 162.30. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of 162.00.
Looking at WTI Crude Oil, the bulls remained in action, and they might soon aim for a move above the $95.00 level.
Upcoming Key Economic Events:
US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June 2026 (Preliminary) – Forecast 54.5, versus 53.9 previous. US S&P Global Services PMI for June 2026 (Preliminary) – Forecast 51.0, versus 51.2 previous.
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The elevated price of oil could also put upward pressure on inflation and increase the expectations of higher interest rates. The higher interest rate environment put pressure on the precious metals. Therefore, the rallies in gold and silver prices are limited.
But the market uncertainty remains higher due to the escalating Middle East tensions. The geopolitical crisis increases the safe haven demand but the higher interest rate environment keeps the US dollar strong. The situation keeps metals under pressure. Oil prices have jumped on the back of growing supply risks, which could keep inflation high and further fortify the Fed’s arguments for tighter policy.
This creates two opposing forces for precious metals. Gold and silver can rally during the geopolitical crisis but a strong Dollar and high interest rate outlook can keep the rallies limited. Therefore, the gold price remains under pressure until the safe haven demand becomes strong enough to offset the Dollar and Fed risks. Silver may be more volatile due to currency factors and demand for industrial uses.
Gold Price Forecast – $4,200 Resistance Keeps Gold Under Pressure Gold prices failed to break above $4,200 and dropped back on Thursday towards the $3,950 area, which is the support of the falling wedge pattern. The price is consolidating between $3,950 and $4,200 in the short term, which indicates price compression at the edge of the falling wedge pattern.
Silver price (XAG/USD) inches higher after registering over 4% losses in the previous day, trading around $57.60 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Friday. However, higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions are strengthening bets on Fed rate hikes, threatening to weigh on non-yielding Silver.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets are currently pricing in roughly a 35.8% chance of a Fed rate hike this month, alongside an 82.1% probability of at least a quarter-point hike in September.
Geopolitical tension continues to surge following reports that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea for allegedly violating a blockade. In response, the US conducted its 13th consecutive night of military strikes on Iran.
Tensions escalated further after US President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" for both the Houthis and Iran if attacks continue, stating he is close to deciding on a massive, unprecedented military operation against Iran.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold recently reversed from the resistance area located at the intersection of the resistance level 4210.00 (top of wave i from the start of July), resistance trendline from February and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from June.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor impulse wave iii from the middle of July.
Given the overriding daily downtrend, Gold can be expected to fall further to the next support level 3965.00.
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The short‑term Elliott Wave outlook in Gold (XAUUSD) indicates that the rally to $4204 marked the completion of wave ((B)), after which the metal turned lower in wave ((C)). The internal subdivision of wave ((C)) is unfolding as a five‑wave structure. Within this sequence, wave (1) ended at $3983.2. The subsequent rally in wave (2) developed as an expanded flat formation. From the wave (1) low, wave A advanced to $4103.7, followed by a pullback in wave B that reached $3959.3. The final leg, wave C, extended higher to $4166.07, completing wave (2) at a higher degree.
From this point, the metal resumed its decline in wave (3). Down from wave (2), wave ((i)) ended at $4099.03, while the corrective rally in wave ((ii)) concluded at $4141.05. The expectation is for Gold to extend two additional lows to complete wave ((v)) of 1. Once this sequence finishes, the market should rally in wave 2 to correct the decline from the July 22 high of wave (2). This corrective phase will precede the next bearish leg.
In the near term, the pivot at $4204.6 remains decisive. As long as this level holds, rallies are expected to fail within three or seven swings, reinforcing the downside bias. The structure highlights continued weakness and suggests further bearish potential in the short horizon.
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EUR/USD gains ground after posting modest losses in the previous day, trading around 1.1380 during the Asian hours on Friday. However, the potential upside for the pair could be limited as the US Dollar (USD) may regain strength, largely driven by escalating conflicts in the Middle East that threaten to push crude oil prices higher. An oil-driven inflation spike has fueled expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume raising interest rates.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, money markets are currently pricing in roughly a 35.8% chance of a Fed rate hike this month, alongside an 82.1% probability of at least a quarter-point hike in September.
Geopolitical tension continues to surge following reports that Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militant group attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea for allegedly violating a blockade. In response, the US conducted its 13th consecutive night of military strikes on Iran. Tensions escalated further after US President Donald Trump warned of "major military punishment" for both the Houthis and Iran if attacks continue, stating he is close to deciding on a massive, unprecedented military operation against Iran.
Simultaneously, trade concerns are mounting after Bloomberg reported that the United States plans to impose new tariffs ranging between 10% and 12.5% on imports from major trading partners. This marks a major effort to rebuild the Trump administration's trade barrier following a recent Supreme Court ruling. Under this plan, imports from the European Union will face tariffs of at least 10%, structured to remain compliant with existing US-EU trade agreements.
Market participants process the European Central Bank’s (ECB) latest monetary policy decisions. While the ECB Governing Council reaffirmed its commitment to bringing inflation down to its 2% medium-term target, it cautioned that high uncertainty persists and the full inflationary impact of the energy shock has yet to materialize. Following a 25-basis-point rate hike in June, the ECB opted to hold its key interest rates steady, keeping the deposit facility, main refinancing, and marginal lending rates at 2.25%, 2.40%, and 2.65%, respectively.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 6.7939 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7906 and 6.7795 Reuters estimate.
PBOC FAQs The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market.
The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts.
Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi.
Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.
Gold price (XAU/USD) faces some selling pressure to around $4,050 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal retreats from a two-month high as rising tensions in the Middle East war lift oil prices, hardening bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume raising interest rates as soon as next week.
Yemen’s Tehran-backed Houthi militant group said its forces attacked two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea that had "violated" its blockade of Saudi ports, as the US carried out a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran. This development has fueled concerns about wider conflict in the Middle East.
Additionally, US President Donald Trump warned the Houthis on Thursday that if they did so again, the US would inflict "major military punishment" upon both them and Iran. Trump further stated that he’s “considering a massive attack” on Iran, per Axios. He told the news outlet that it would be “bigger than ever before,” before adding, “I am close to making a decision. We are all set for it.”
A crude oil-led inflation scare amid the Iran war boosts Fed rate hike bets, which could undermine the non-yielding asset such as the yellow metal in the near term. Money markets are now pricing in nearly a 35.8% chance of a rate hike from the Fed this month, as well as an 82.1% probability of at least a quarter-point hike in September, per CME’s FedWatch tool.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The EUR/JPY extends its advance for the third straight day, set to end the week with solid gains as traders brace for the end of the week. The shared currency didn’t capitalise on the hawkish forward guidance by the European Central Bank (ECB), as Bloomberg, citing sources, revealed that officials are ready to raise rates in September.
Euro gains as ECB hawkishness offsets BoJ intervention cautionDigging into ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference, she said that inflation risks are tilted to the upside and growth to the downside, but stated that the central bank would set monetary policy to ensure that inflation returns to the 2% goal in the medium term. She added that they would remain data-dependent and would not pre-commit to an interest rate path.
Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen weakened less than expected against the Euro as investors remain wary that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might intervene in the foreign exchange markets to push its local currency.
On Friday, EUR/JPY traders will be watching the release of Japanese inflation data. The National CPI excluding Fresh Food is expected to rise from 1.4% to 1.6% YoY. Also, traders would be looking for updates on Jibun Bank Flash PMIs, with the manufacturing activity index measure expected to ease from 54.8 to 54.5.
In the Eurozone, traders will also digest HCOB Flash PMIs for Germany, France, and the European Union (EU). The EU’s HCOB Manufacturing PMI is expected to drop from 51.4 to 51.3, while the Services PMI is expected to improve, but will remain in contractionary territory, from 49.4 to 49.8.
EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook
The EUR/JPY daily chart shows that momentum is tilted to the upside, further confirmed by a rising Relative Strength Index (RSI). Additionally, a trendline break since last week shifted the market structure from sideways trading to an uptrend, as prices drift higher at a modest pace.
For a bullish continuation, the EUR/JPY needs to clear the April 30, high at 187.56, before buyers can eye 187.95, the year-to-date (YTD) high. Above lies the psychological 188.00 and 190.00 levels.
On the downside, sellers could trigger a break of the market structure, but first they need to clear Thursday’s low of the day (LOD) at 186.05. Once done, they could test the confluence of the 50 and 100-day SMAs at 185.16/02, before targeting the 200-day SMA at 183.44.
EUR/JPY Price Chart – Daily
EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen Price This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.43%1.03%0.92%0.48%-0.03%1.08%1.01%EUR-0.43%0.61%0.43%0.07%-0.43%0.65%0.58%GBP-1.03%-0.61%-0.17%-0.54%-1.03%0.03%0.02%JPY-0.92%-0.43%0.17%-0.36%-0.90%0.11%0.20%CAD-0.48%-0.07%0.54%0.36%-0.47%0.46%0.58%AUD0.03%0.43%1.03%0.90%0.47%1.11%1.07%NZD-1.08%-0.65%-0.03%-0.11%-0.46%-1.11%-0.02%CHF-1.01%-0.58%-0.02%-0.20%-0.58%-1.07%0.02% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate is trading around 1.4082, little changed on the day after easing from levels above 1.42 earlier in July. The pair reached a monthly low near 1.4004, having previously climbed to a 2026 high around 1.4248 in June.
Scotiabank believes the Canadian Dollar is largely tracking broader movements in the US currency, with USD/CAD currently trading close to the bank’s estimated fair value of 1.4013.
The bank noted that comments from US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer offered some reassurance that the latest tariff measures would not permanently damage US-Canada commercial relations.
Greer also indicated that negotiations could make progress towards a broader agreement before the end of the year, helping limit renewed pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
Domestic attention is focused on Canadian retail sales, which are expected to have risen 1.0% in May, matching the preliminary estimate published alongside April’s figures.
From a technical perspective, Scotiabank describes the outlook as neutral. USD/CAD is pivoting around its 40-day moving average at 1.4074, with neither side showing enough momentum to force a decisive break.
The bank identifies initial support at 1.4060 and resistance at 1.4125. A sustained move below support would strengthen the case for further Canadian Dollar gains, while a break above resistance would suggest the recent USD rebound has further to run.
The GBP/JPY rotates for the third straight day, as a ‘bullish harami’ chart pattern opens the door for further upside, but intervention fears by Japanese authorities cap the cross-pair advance. The GBP/JPY trades at 218.17, unchanged.
GBP/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe GBP/JPY found its floor at around 218.00, as sellers failed to drive the cross-pair below it, despite breaking a key support trendline three days ago. One reason for sellers’ weakness is speculation that the Bank of England could raise rates, which could favour some upside.
On the other hand, the GBP/JPY has failed to gain traction above 219.00 amid speculation of Japanese Yen intervention to strengthen the Japanese Yen.
For a bullish continuation, the GBP/JPY must clear 219.00 and the year-to-date (YTD) high at 219.61. Once hurdled, the next area of interest would become the 220.00 milestone.
On the flip side, bears must clear the July 21 low of the day (LOD) at 217.53 to challenge 216.60, the April 30 daily high-turned-support.
GBP/JPY Price Chart – Daily
GBP/JPY daily chart Pound Sterling Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.31%0.45%0.43%-0.02%0.43%0.77%0.32%EUR-0.31%0.15%0.15%-0.34%0.12%0.48%0.00%GBP-0.45%-0.15%0.00%-0.50%-0.03%0.34%-0.15%JPY-0.43%-0.15%0.00%-0.45%-0.01%0.34%-0.13%CAD0.02%0.34%0.50%0.45%0.44%0.80%0.33%AUD-0.43%-0.12%0.03%0.01%-0.44%0.35%-0.10%NZD-0.77%-0.48%-0.34%-0.34%-0.80%-0.35%-0.49%CHF-0.32%-0.00%0.15%0.13%-0.33%0.10%0.49% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The Strait of Hormuz has closed twice this year, and both times silver fell instead of rallying, because the crisis bid went into the US dollar rather than into metals.
Silver trades near $58.77 an ounce as I write this, with the gold-silver ratio around 69.5. That ratio is simply the number of silver ounces it takes to buy one ounce of gold, and investors watch it to judge whether silver is cheap or expensive against the larger metal. Silver is up roughly 50% from where it stood a year ago, and it still sits about 52% below the record of $121.62 set on January 29.
It would be easy to blame that gap on the war, and it would be wrong. The collapse from January's record was a margin story, not a geopolitical one: exchange margin requirements on silver futures were raised, leveraged positions were forced out, and the price fell hard through early February, weeks before the first shot was fired. Silver had recovered into the $90s by the end of that month. What the war did was something different, and more instructive.
I write the Silver Catalyst newsletter for Golden Meadow®, and the striking thing about the past six months is that the same setup has now produced the same result twice. In late February, US and Israeli strikes on Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and silver fell. In July, the strikes resumed, the strait closed again, and silver fell again. A single episode is an anomaly. Two is a pattern worth understanding, because it tells you which conditions turn geopolitical fear into higher silver prices, and which conditions do the opposite.
The same setup, twiceThe war began on February 28 with coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated against shipping, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted. Roughly one-fifth of the world's oil passes through that waterway, so the closure went straight into energy prices. Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel within about a week, the first time it had done so since 2022.
On paper, this was everything a precious metals investor is told to expect: a shooting war, a threatened oil supply, and a genuine inflation scare. Silver did jump briefly when markets opened. Then it gave the gain back the same day and kept sliding. By mid-March, both gold and silver sat at one-month lows, with silver near $77, falling despite the Iran war rather than because of it. The slide continued into the low $60s by late March.
July ran the same sequence in miniature. A June ceasefire frayed, the United States notified Congress that military action had resumed, Iran struck tankers, and the strait closed once more. Oil surged more than 9%. Silver, which had traded near $69.89 a month earlier, bottomed near $55.58 on July 17, an eight-month low.
Sources: Forbes: Gold and Silver Hit One-Month Lows Despite Iran War | Trading Economics: Silver Slumps as Oil Hits $100 Amid Middle East Conflict | Yahoo Finance: Silver Hits Eight-Month Lows as Airstrikes Continue
Why the crisis bid skipped SilverBoth times, the money looking for safety went into the US dollar rather than into metals. The dollar held near its strongest level in more than a year through the July window, and a stronger dollar mechanically pressures silver, because silver is priced in dollars and a more valuable dollar buys more of everything.
The oil spike did the rest of the damage, through a chain that is worth following slowly. Higher energy prices lift expected inflation. Higher expected inflation pushes up expectations for interest rates, and in this case it did more than that: it turned an expected series of Federal Reserve rate cuts into an argument about rate hikes. That is a direct headwind for silver, which pays no interest to whoever holds it. When investors believe cash and bonds will pay more, an asset yielding nothing looks worse by comparison.
Gold fell in both episodes too. Silver simply fell further, because industrial uses account for about 57% of total silver demand, so a shock that raises the cost of energy and threatens growth hits silver from two directions at once. That is why the gold-silver ratio widened toward 72 at the July low before compressing again on the rebound.
It is worth being precise about what did not happen. Iran produces a negligible amount of silver, so neither episode touched mine supply. The entire effect ran through investment demand.
Then, in July, it reversed quickly. Reports of a possible 10-day truce arrived alongside a softer June inflation reading, the expected-rate path eased, and silver rebounded 4.9% in a single session on July 21 to close the window near $59.17, almost exactly where it began.
Sources: NPR: US-Iran Strikes and the Strait of Hormuz | CNN: US Resumes Strikes, Iran Says It Struck Tankers | Capital.com: Dollar Firms on Iran Safe-Haven Bid | USAGOLD: Silver Slips, Gold-Silver Ratio Near 72 | StreetInsider: Oil Falls as Mediators Propose 10-Day Ceasefire
What this means to Silver investorsThe lesson is not that silver failed as a safe haven. The lesson is that the safe-haven response is conditional, and the conditions are knowable in advance.
Silver tends to benefit from a crisis when two things line up: the money fleeing to safety actually flows into metals, and the crisis pushes interest rate expectations down rather than up. When both hold, silver often outruns gold, because it is a much smaller market and the same inflow moves it further.
The clearest recent example is 2020. When the pandemic panic hit in March of that year, silver was sold hard alongside everything else, and the gold-silver ratio spiked to 127, meaning it took 127 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. That was the liquidation phase, and it looked a great deal like this year. What changed was the policy response. Central banks cut rates to near zero and flooded markets with liquidity, and the safe-haven money that had been hiding in cash moved into metals. From its March low, silver rallied over 140% by early August 2020, and the ratio compressed from 127 to 72. The Silver Institute attributed the move to safe-haven demand, inflation fears, very low interest rates, and central bank liquidity. In July 2020 alone silver gained 34%, its best month since 1979.
Set that against 2026 and the contrast is direct. In 2020 the crisis drove rates to zero and the money went into metals. In 2026 the crisis ran through oil, so it drove rate expectations up and the money went into the dollar. Same asset, opposite configuration, opposite outcome.
Two practical implications follow. First, watch where the safe-haven money is actually going, not merely whether fear is rising. A climbing dollar during a crisis is a warning sign for silver in the short run. Second, energy-driven crises and financial-system crises are not the same trade. A banking scare that pulls rate expectations down is a very different setup for silver than an oil shock that pushes them up.
None of this touched the physical picture underneath. Mine supply was unaffected in both episodes, and the market is still forecast to run a sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. Those are separate clocks. The macro channel can dominate for weeks at a time, as it plainly did twice this year, while the supply and demand balance moves on a horizon measured in years.
That distinction is the practical value of watching this closely. If you follow how silver has traded in 2026, you will notice the sharpest moves have come from the macro channel, while the longer-term case for silver has rested on the structural shortfall that keeps drawing down above-ground stocks. Confusing one for the other is how investors talk themselves out of a position during exactly the sort of fortnight we just had, and it is also why the framework in Silver Rising treats the safe-haven response as a conditional catalyst rather than an automatic one.
The honest summary is that silver has now run the unfavorable configuration twice this year, and in July it still finished roughly where it started.
Many central banks are stacking gold. However, there is a notable seller – Russia.
This underscores the fact that governments hold gold for a reason.
According to the latest data compiled by the World Gold Council, Russia has sold around 44 tonnes of gold since the beginning of the year. The Russians are tapping into their gold reserves to fill budget holes as the ongoing war with Ukraine and economic sanctions strain the country’s economy.
The Bank of Russia has sold gold every month this year, decreasing its reserves by nearly 10 tonnes in June alone.
Economists estimate Russia has raised about $5.6 billion through its gold sales.
Russia’s government budget has grown to around ₽7 trillion ($89 billion).
The Moscow Times noted that the drawdown of Russian gold reserves is the largest in decades, including during the pandemic era.
“Even during the pandemic, when authorities sold assets from foreign exchange reserves to support the ruble and the budget, the Central Bank sold six times less gold—7.6 tonnes—between July 2020 and April 2021. As of July 1, 2026, the Central Bank’s gold reserves had fallen to 2,283 tonnes (73.4 million ounces), the lowest level since February 2020.”
The Times said the central bank has been selling gold into the domestic market. The Russian Finance Ministry has been conducting similar gold sales through the National Wealth Fund (NWF).
Freedom Global analyst Vladimir Chernov explained the mechanism behind the Bank of Russia gold sales.
“When oil and gas revenues fall below the level stipulated by the fiscal rule, or when fund assets are allocated for domestic investment, the Bank of Russia carries out offsetting transactions involving liquid reserve assets. In doing so, the Central Bank is executing the technical aspect of the mechanism rather than making a specific decision to cover the budget deficit by selling gold.”
Chernov pointed out that the very nature of gold makes these transactions possible despite aggressive sanctions that have effectively cut Russia off from the global economy.
“Gold is suitable for such operations because it is stored in Russia, remains accessible to the regulator under sanctions, and has appreciated significantly in recent years.”
Russia was prepared for this.
The Bank of Russia launched a gold buying spree beginning in 2014. Over the next six years, the Russian central bank increased its reserves by around 40 million ounces (1,244 tonnes).
During this period, the price of gold ranged from $1,100 to $1,500 an ounce.
When the war began, Russia held about half of its reserves in dollar, euro, and pound sterling assets. The other half was in yuan and gold, which remain accessible.
The Russians also made a shrewd move before the invasion of Ukraine, transferring their National Welfare Fund holdings into yuan (60 percent) and gold (40 percent). A RAND Corporation study notes, “This was an indication that Russia was preparing for increased Western economic pressure. During the war, Russia has been using these funds to support the budget.”
Russia’s recent selling reveals just why central banks hold gold. It serves as a long-term reserve free from counterparty risk. And since its value is recognized around the world, it can serve as an emergency fund – even if you’ve been locked out of the global dollar-dominated financial system.
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In this episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey argues that investors should look beyond daily headlines and recognize the long-term patterns reshaping financial markets. Drawing parallels between hockey goalies who rely on pattern recognition rather than reflexes, Maharrey contends that history provides valuable clues about where markets are headed—even if the exact events never repeat themselves.
His central thesis is that the U.S. Treasury market is undergoing a fundamental structural shift. If this trend continues, it could permanently alter interest rates, constrain Federal Reserve policy, weaken the traditional 60/40 investment portfolio, and strengthen the long-term case for owning gold and silver.
Why pattern recognition matters more than headlinesMaharrey opens with an unusual analogy from professional hockey. NHL goalies routinely stop slap shots they physically cannot react to in time because they recognize patterns before the puck even leaves the stick. Investors, he argues, should approach markets the same way.
Instead of reacting to every social media post, Federal Reserve comment, or daily price movement, investors should study historical trends that unfold over years or decades. Technical analysis and long-term historical perspective can reveal recurring cycles that help anticipate future market behavior.
According to Maharrey, today's financial markets suffer from "compressed timeframes," where many participants remember little before the 2008 financial crisis. This has distorted expectations, leading many investors to mistakenly believe that the ultra-low interest rates of the last decade represent normal conditions.
Inflation is making retirement more difficultBefore diving into the bond market, Maharrey highlights a recent Morningstar survey showing that 46% of Americans say they cannot currently afford to save for retirement.
He acknowledges that persistent inflation and declining purchasing power make saving increasingly difficult. However, he argues that failing to save presents an even greater long-term risk.
As one potential solution, Maharrey discusses Money Metals' monthly installment program, which allows investors to accumulate precious metals beginning with contributions as low as $100 per month, gradually building a portfolio designed to preserve purchasing power over time.
A fundamental shift is happening in the bond marketThe heart of the episode focuses on evidence suggesting the U.S. Treasury market has entered a long-term structural transition.
Drawing heavily from research published by Massif Capital and work by analyst Will Thompson, Maharrey explains that for roughly the last two decades, long-term interest rates largely followed expectations surrounding Federal Reserve policy.
Today, however, that relationship appears to be changing.
Instead of central banks dominating Treasury demand, private investors seeking competitive returns increasingly determine bond prices. As these investors become more sensitive to risk and required yields, long-term interest rates are being driven more by fiscal concerns and geopolitical risks than by Federal Reserve policy alone.
This shift, Maharrey argues, fundamentally changes how Treasury markets function.
Jim Grant's long-term bond bear market thesisMaharrey then revisits the work of legendary bond analyst Jim Grant, publisher of Grant's Interest Rate Observer.
Grant has long argued that interest rates move through multi-decade cycles. According to Maharrey, Grant believes the world is entering a generational bear market in bonds, meaning persistently higher interest rates and lower bond prices over many years.
Grant bases this conclusion on recurring historical cycles dating back more than a century. Interest rates fell during portions of the late nineteenth century, rose through the early twentieth century, declined again between 1920 and 1946, climbed from 1946 through 1981, then entered another extended decline that culminated in nearly a decade of zero-percent interest rates following the 2008 financial crisis.
At the peak of that era, nearly $18 trillion of global debt carried zero or even negative yields—something Grant considers one of history's greatest bond market excesses.
Massif capital explains why this cycle is differentWhile Grant identifies the historical pattern, Massif Capital attempts to explain the mechanics behind today's shift.
Maharrey explains that Treasury prices and yields remain governed by supply and demand. As demand falls, bond prices decline, and yields rise.
Recent behavior, however, has defied traditional expectations.
The 10-year Treasury yield climbed from roughly 1.5% in late 2021 to nearly 5% by the fall of 2023. Even after the Federal Reserve began lowering short-term interest rates, long-term yields remained elevated instead of declining.
According to Massif Capital, this represents a genuine "regime change" in Treasury markets.
The firm points to one particularly striking example.
After the Federal Open Market Committee cut rates by 50 basis points at its September 2024 meeting, the 10-year Treasury yield actually increased, rising from approximately 3.65% on September 17, 2024, to roughly 4.79% by January 2025.
By March 2026, despite projections for roughly 225 basis points of additional rate cuts, the 10-year Treasury still traded near 4.45%, suggesting Federal Reserve policy no longer fully controls long-term rates.
Bonds are losing their safe-haven statusPerhaps the most significant change Maharrey identifies is the evolving role of Treasury securities during periods of geopolitical stress.
Historically, investors rushed into U.S. government debt during wars or financial turmoil, pushing bond prices higher and yields lower.
Instead, recent conflicts—including heightened tensions involving Iran—have coincided with Treasury selling rather than buying.
According to Maharrey, this indicates investors increasingly view long-term government debt as a risk asset rather than a safe haven.
He notes that the New York Fed's Adrian, Crump, and Moench model placed the 10-year term premium near 0.6% in late May 2026, after spending much of the previous decade near zero or negative territory. On January 13, 2025, the term premium exceeded 0.8%, its highest level since 2011.
These higher premiums indicate investors now demand greater compensation for holding long-term U.S. debt.
Why global demand for treasuries is fallingMaharrey argues that two primary forces are reducing international demand for U.S. government debt.
The first is America's deteriorating fiscal position.
With the national debt approaching $40 trillion, continued deficit spending has raised concerns among global investors about the long-term sustainability of U.S. finances.
The second is the weaponization of the U.S. dollar.
Following Western sanctions and the freezing of Russian dollar-denominated assets after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, many governments began reassessing the risks associated with holding large quantities of U.S. financial assets.
According to Maharrey, these developments accelerated global de-dollarization efforts.
One notable example is China, whose Treasury holdings have fallen to approximately $652.3 billion, the lowest level since September 2008.
He also notes that earlier this year, gold surpassed U.S. Treasuries as the world's leading reserve asset, underscoring how many central banks are increasingly substituting gold for government bonds.
Rising borrowing costs leave the Fed in a difficult positionMaharrey argues that higher bond yields create serious problems for Washington.
As interest rates increase, the federal government's borrowing costs rise accordingly.
He notes that during fiscal year 2026, the U.S. Treasury has already spent approximately $1.5 trillion on interest expenses, representing a 14.2% increase over the comparable period in fiscal 2025.
Interest costs totaled approximately $1.22 trillion during fiscal 2025, up 7.3% from the previous year.
Interest on the national debt has now become the federal government's second-largest spending category, exceeding defense and Medicare expenditures, with only Social Security costing more.
Maharrey contends that if foreign governments continue reducing Treasury purchases while private investors demand higher yields, the Federal Reserve may have little choice but to resume large-scale bond buying through quantitative easing.
The Federal Reserve's Catch-22According to Maharrey, this creates a dilemma the Federal Reserve cannot escape.
If policymakers continue fighting inflation through tighter monetary policy, they risk bursting the debt bubble and severely damaging the economy.
If they instead resume aggressive monetary easing and quantitative easing, they risk reigniting inflation through additional money creation.
Maharrey believes history suggests the Federal Reserve will ultimately choose inflation over recession, arguing that preserving economic stability has consistently taken priority over maintaining purchasing power.
He suggests that the changing bond market may increasingly limit the Fed's ability to control long-term interest rates, forcing policymakers into decisions they would rather avoid.
Why Gold could replace bonds in traditional portfoliosMaharrey concludes by examining what these structural changes could mean for investors.
For decades, the standard investment allocation consisted of a 60/40 portfolio—roughly 60% equities and 40% bonds.
That strategy depended on bonds rising when stocks declined.
Today, however, bonds and equities increasingly move together.
Massif Capital's research found that the rolling correlation between stocks and bonds, which remained moderately negative from 2003 through 2021, surged to approximately +0.5 during 2022 and has since averaged near +0.6.
As a result, bonds no longer provide the diversification many investors expect.
Maharrey points to Morgan Stanley Chief Investment Officer Michael Wilson, who recently suggested a 60/20 strategy, replacing half of the traditional bond allocation with gold as a more resilient inflation hedge.
Central banks continue choosing GoldSupporting this view, Maharrey notes that central banks themselves increasingly favor gold over government bonds.
According to the figures cited in the episode, central banks have purchased more than 1,000 metric tons of gold annually for four consecutive years.e annual central bank gold purchases between 2010 and 2021 totaled only 473 metric tons.
For Maharrey, this trend reinforces the idea that gold has increasingly become the world's preferred safe-haven asset as confidence in long-term government debt continues to erode.
Looking beyond today's headlinesMaharrey closes by returning to the episode's central message: investors should focus less on daily market noise and more on long-term historical patterns.
Whether examining Treasury markets, Federal Reserve policy, inflation, or precious metals, he believes today's developments point toward a prolonged period of structurally higher interest rates, persistent currency debasement, and increased demand for tangible assets.
While short-term volatility is inevitable, Maharrey argues that the long-term trends increasingly favor gold and silver as tools for preserving purchasing power in an evolving financial landscape.
Several large Chinese banks have announced plans to halt retail paper gold trading. Could this be a coordinated push by China to exert more influence and break the Western grip on gold pricing?
Last month, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) announced it would stop offering individual trading in precious metals linked to the Shanghai Gold Exchange effective July 24. ICBC ranks as the world’s largest bank by assets.
Postal Savings Bank of China, Ping An Bank, and China Guangfa Bank have also announced plans to end paper gold trading.
Paper trading involves “futures.” These are exchange-traded contracts between two parties who agree to buy/sell a set amount of gold at a predetermined price on a specific future date. At the end of the contract, the buyer can either roll the contract over into a new one or take delivery of the physical metal.
Futures are used for hedging against price fluctuations and for speculating on market movements.
Since most futures traders never take delivery of physical gold, there is far more paper than metal. If every investor holding a buy contract demanded delivery, there wouldn’t be enough gold to go around. This opens the door to price manipulation through the movement of paper contracts.
True price discoveryThere is some speculation that the sudden exodus of Chinese banks from futures trading, coupled with the new Hong Kong-based gold clearing and settlement system, is a concerted effort by China to have a stronger hand in global gold pricing.
This would represent a seismic shift in the gold market, moving the balance of pricing power away from the paper-dominated West to the physical metal-oriented East.
London, New York, and Switzerland have served as the center of the gold trade for nearly two centuries. The spot price is driven by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) morning and evening gold fixes.
Meanwhile, the Shanghai Gold Exchange (SGE) is the world’s largest physical spot gold exchange. Its activity centers on the physical delivery of bullion, unlike the COMEX, which is primarily a hub for moving paper. However, despite its size, the SGE has far less influence on global pricing.
The World Gold Council picked up on an interesting trend in its H1 gold market analysis.
"Interestingly, intraday analysis suggests that the bulk of gold’s movements have been linked to activity during Asian and U.S. trading hours. Many of the pullbacks occurred during U.S. hours and, conversely, gold’s rebounds generally occurred during Asian hours."
During Asian trading hours, gold was up 12.9 percent through the first six months of the year. During North American trading hours, the yellow metal was down 15 percent. European sessions split the difference, with gold falling modestly by 1.3 percent.
This isn’t just a recent trend. We find that the gold price in Asian markets has typically outperformed the Western gold price for decades.
Analyst Ed Steer argues that this reflects Western price manipulation through the paper markets.
“This simple difference in investment strategy is all the proof needed that the world's banks and large commercial traders are actively managing the price between the a.m. and p.m. gold fixes in London -- and have been doing so since the paper market in gold first opened on 02 January 1975.”
It’s not a leap to think that the Chinese would prefer to set the gold price and strip power away from the paper traders in the West.
Risk managementOfficials say Chinese banks are exiting paper futures trading to manage risk and prevent “speculative excesses.”
“Chinese banks are tightening retail precious metals trading as a risk-control response to heightened price volatility,” State Street Investment Management gold strategist Robin Tsui told the South China Morning Post.
Joshua Rotbart operates a precious metals firm with offices in Hong Kong and Singapore. He agreed, telling the Investing News Network that we shouldn’t take the move as a sign that China is “cooling on gold.”
“What is being switched off is the speculative paper layer. This move reflects a distinction between leveraged paper trading and physical ownership.”
Paper trading increases volatility because it can be moved so easily. Rotbart said Chinese banks have become increasingly concerned about leveraged retail products given the recent price swings.
“When gold prices move sharply, leveraged paper products expose both the investor and the institution to greater risk. Discontinuing these products reduces operational and reputational risk while supporting broader financial stability.”
It also shifts the pricing emphasis away from speculative paper toward the physical market. This would arguably mean a price better reflecting the market fundamentals as opposed to speculative soothsaying.
Rotbart hinted that a more Asian-centric gold pricing regime could orient the market more toward physical gold.
“Over time, this development may encourage greater emphasis on physical ownership rather than short-term leveraged speculation. It channels demand toward the metal itself rather than reducing it.”
VRIC Media CEO Jay Martin said he doesn’t buy the official explanation.
“I think that July 24th is the day that China starts finding out what gold is actually worth.”
He pointed out that the paper market creates the illusion that there is far more gold than there really is, making it easy for paper traders to depress prices.
“If there are 10 paper claims for every real ounce of gold, the market sees 10 times more gold than actually exists.”
By removing this dynamic from the market, Martin argues we will find out “the real price of gold.”
And he thinks it’s much higher than the LBMA fix indicates.
Von Greyerz's partner Matthew Piepenburg agrees.
“I've written ad nauseam for years about the COMEX and the LBMA markets, and how they legalize price manipulation and fraud legally, and China isn't stupid. They've been watching this since 1973 ... They know that we use massive amounts of leverage to force the boot to the neck of gold and silver, so we don't have natural price discovery. Fast forward to 2026, China is saying for us to have more credibility, more trust, and more natural price discovery, we are now going to try and make the paper trade, which is an open secret that it's a lie; we're going to call the bluff on that. We're going to go focus more on physical supply and demand.”
Piepenburg called it “another move in the direction toward true price discovery.”
“What Shanghai and Hong Kong and China in the East are doing is anchoring the trade in something more valuable, actual supply and demand, less nonsense, less dishonesty, and that gives them more credibility.”
It's impossible to know the true motives of Chinese players in the gold market. However, it doesn't really matter.
Whether the Chinese government is intentionally trying to wrest control of pricing from the West or simply protecting its investors from volatility and market excess, the practical implications are the same. China is positioning itself to become a more influential player in gold pricing. The Chinese market is much more oriented toward physical bullion.
Ergo, Asian pricing will likely more strongly reflect the value of physical metal as opposed to speculation about gold on paper.
Gold Talking Points: Gold prices love lower real yields. While higher rates present opportunity cost lower rates or even stagnant rates with higher levels of inflation signify currency debasement and the safer harbors of gold make sense in that backdrop. This is something that can have correlation with Fed policy but perhaps more important is long-term US Treasury rates, where market participants have a viable alternative for storing capital.
When I looked at gold in the Tuesday webinar I shared what bulls were going to need to do to take back control of the market. There were two hurdles that needed to be jumped, with each at psychological levels sitting overhead. The first, at $4100, was the price that held the highs last week, even with a below-target CPI and PPI print. The second, was the swing high from early July that was the last lower-high before prices pushed down into a stall.
This is important from a price action perspective – because the failure from sellers to push down to a fresh low, holding above the June 30 low at 3942 illustrated the possibility of bearish exhaustion. Given that this was around the $4k level, that story makes even more sense, considering that tests below $4k have been continually met with buyers – and if bulls were starting to show more optimism, more anticipation, and disallowing for price to even re-test those prior lows, we may be nearing a spot where they’re more willing to take greater control.
Gold Daily Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Earlier this week and even into yesterday, that theme looked good, as bulls had pushed up to a fresh short-term higher-high. But since finding resistance yesterday that theme has been snapping back aggressively, with gold prices down by more than $100/oz as prices push into support at the $4044 level.
Gold Four-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview This accompanies a rally in the US Dollar as the USD has broken out of a bull flag formation, and this happens as longer-term Treasury yields threaten a breakout to fresh highs, with the 30-year bond on the verge of jumping to levels last seen in 2007 before the Financial Collapse.
US Treasury 30-Year Bond Monthly Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview Gold Strategy Near-Term As we go into the weekly close the big question is whether bullish defense will show above the $4k level, and for that, we have two spots of interest. One is already in-play at $4044, the other is a swing of prior support-turned-resistance at $4021, and below that, even $4k can be argued as a point of support for bullish near-term setups.
But if buyers fail to hold the move – particularly if we get a weekly close below that vaulted $4k level, matters can begin to shift as the earlier week flare will take on the look of a failed bullish breakout.
Gold Two-Hour Price Chart Chart prepared by James Stanley; data derived from Tradingview --- written by James Stanley, Senior Market Analyst, Global Macro
Silver price dives over 3.80% on Thursday as the precious metals segment tumbles amid overall US Dollar strength and heightened risk aversion amid heightened tensions in the Middle East. The XAG/USD trades at $57.62 after hitting a weekly high of $60.94.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe white metal remains downward biased, despite recovering some ground after bouncing off yearly lows of $54.77. The market structure of lower highs and lower lows remains intact, an indication that the downtrend might extend in the near.term
Momentum-wise, remains bearish as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reversed its course towards the 50-neutral level, aiming lower in bearish territory.
For a bearish continuation, sellers need to drive the price below the July 17 low at $54.77. Once hurdled, the next stop is the $50 milestone. On further weakness, the next area of interest would be the November 21, 2025, swing low of $48.64
On the other hand, if buyers move in and drag Silver above the July 22 day’s high at $60.94, it opens the path towards challenging the July 6 high at $63.38. Above the next key resistance is the psychological $64.00, ahead of the 50-day SMA at $65.79.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
AUD/USD edges lower on Thursday as a stronger US Dollar (USD) outweighs support from stronger-than-expected Australian employment data. At the time of writing, the pair trades around 0.6966, down 0.45% on the day.
The US Dollar gains as the Middle East war lifts safe-haven demand, while the resulting surge in Oil prices adds to inflation worries and strengthens expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may need to raise interest rates.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now see an 83% chance of a rate hike in September. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.45, its highest level in three weeks.
From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD holds above the 21-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 0.6948 and 0.6896, respectively, keeping the near-term outlook mildly constructive. However, the pair remains capped by the 50-day SMA at 0.7028.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 47 sits just below the neutral 50 level, pointing to subdued momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains marginally positive, but the fading green histogram suggests that bullish momentum is weakening.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 50-day SMA at 0.7028, followed by the horizontal barrier at 0.7100 and then 0.7250. On the downside, immediate support is located at the 21-day SMA at 0.6948, followed by the 200-day SMA at 0.6896. A sustained break below these levels would expose the 0.6800 mark.
The striking thing about the past six months is that the same setup has now produced the same result twice. In late February, US and Israeli strikes on Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz and silver fell. In July, the strikes resumed, the strait closed again, and silver fell again. A single episode is an anomaly. Two is a pattern worth understanding, because it tells you which conditions turn geopolitical fear into higher silver prices, and which conditions do the opposite.
The Same Setup, Twice The war began on February 28 with coordinated US and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets. Iran retaliated against shipping, and tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz effectively halted. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through that waterway, so the closure went straight into energy prices. Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel within about a week, the first time it had done so since 2022.
On paper, this was everything a precious metals investor is told to expect: a shooting war, a threatened oil supply, and a genuine inflation scare. Silver did jump briefly when markets opened. Then it gave the gain back the same day and kept sliding. By mid-March, both gold and silver sat at one-month lows, with silver near $77, falling despite the Iran war rather than because of it. The slide continued into the low $60s by late March.
July ran the same sequence in miniature. A June ceasefire frayed, the United States notified Congress that military action had resumed, Iran struck tankers, and the strait closed once more. Oil surged more than 9%. Silver, which had traded near $69.89 a month earlier, bottomed near $55.58 on July 17, an eight-month low.
Silver’s day-by-day path through July, from an eight-month low on the 17th to a rebound on the 21st. Sources: NPR: US-Iran Strikes and the Strait of Hormuz | CNN: US Resumes Strikes, Iran Says It Struck Tankers | Capital.com: Dollar Firms on Iran Safe-Haven Bid | USAGOLD: Silver Slips, Gold-Silver Ratio Near 72 | StreetInsider: Oil Falls as Mediators Propose 10-Day Ceasefire What This Means to Silver Investors The lesson is not that silver failed as a safe haven. The lesson is that the safe-haven response is conditional, and the conditions are knowable in advance.
Silver tends to benefit from a crisis when two things line up: the money fleeing to safety actually flows into metals, and the crisis pushes interest rate expectations down rather than up. When both hold, silver often outruns gold, because it is a much smaller market and the same inflow moves it further.
The clearest recent example is 2020. When the pandemic panic hit in March of that year, silver was sold hard alongside everything else, and the gold-silver ratio spiked to 127, meaning it took 127 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. That was the liquidation phase, and it looked a great deal like this year. What changed was the policy response. Central banks cut rates to near zero and flooded markets with liquidity, and the safe-haven money that had been hiding in cash moved into metals. From its March low, silver rallied over 140% by early August 2020, and the ratio compressed from 127 to 72. The Silver Institute attributed the move to safe-haven demand, inflation fears, very low interest rates, and central bank liquidity. In July 2020 alone silver gained 34%, its best month since 1979.
Set that against 2026 and the contrast is direct. In 2020 the crisis drove rates to zero and the money went into metals. In 2026 the crisis ran through oil, so it drove rate expectations up and the money went into the dollar. Same asset, opposite configuration, opposite outcome.
Two practical implications follow. First, watch where the safe-haven money is actually going, not merely whether fear is rising. A climbing dollar during a crisis is a warning sign for silver in the short run. Second, energy-driven crises and financial-system crises are not the same trade. A banking scare that pulls rate expectations down is a very different setup for silver than an oil shock that pushes them up.
None of this touched the physical picture underneath. Mine supply was unaffected in both episodes, and the market is still forecast to run a sixth consecutive annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces in 2026, according to Metals Focus and the Silver Institute. Those are separate clocks. The macro channel can dominate for weeks at a time, as it plainly did twice this year, while the supply and demand balance moves on a horizon measured in years.
That distinction is the practical value of watching this closely. If you follow how silver has traded in 2026, you will notice the sharpest moves have come from the macro channel, while the longer-term case for silver has rested on the structural shortfall that keeps drawing down above-ground stocks. Confusing one for the other is how investors talk themselves out of a position during exactly the sort of fortnight we just had, and it is also why the framework in Silver Rising treats the safe-haven response as a conditional catalyst rather than an automatic one.
The honest summary is that silver has now run the unfavorable configuration twice this year, and in July it still finished roughly where it started.
The safe-haven question is one dimension of the 100-catalyst framework I analyze in Silver Rising, alongside the five other Deep Dives in this issue of the Silver Catalyst newsletter. Get full Silver Catalyst Newsletter and Silver Rising book today.
Gold price (XAU/USD) losses nearly 2% on Thursday as the US Dollar stages a comeback amid growing speculation that the White House may continue its campaign against Iran, which seems poised to prolong the Gulf War. The XAU/USD trades below $4,050 after falling from a two-day high above $4,100
XAU/USD falls as war escalation lifts Dollar and Fed risksTensions remain high in the Middle East after N12 reports that the US President Donald Trump is “considering a massive attack greater than anything before, I'm close to making a decision.” Recently, Kann news reported that Israel is awaiting Trump’s decision regarding the significant expansion of military operations in Iran and the possibility of Israel's involvement in them.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the American currency against the other six, is up 0.29% at 101.43, a headwind for the yellow metal, making it less expensive for foreign buyers.
A scarce US economic docket during the week left traders adrift to Thursday’s Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 19, which were better-than-expected, easing from 209K to 187K, below forecasts of 212K. The jobless claims 4-week average dipped from 214.75K to 207.5K. The report justifies the Federal Reserve’s focus on tackling inflation, given the strength of the jobs market.
High Oil prices are also a headwind for the yellow metal, as it is positively correlated with the US Dollar. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude benchmark, rallies nearly 14%, up to $93.14 per barrel.
A solid jobs report and higher energy prices prompted investors to increase their bets on a Fed rate hike in 2026. The swaps markets now indicate a higher likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July 29 meeting, with probabilities rising from nearly 33% a day ago to close to 40%.
Meanwhile, for the September meeting, the odds are ate 76% for a rate hike, based on Prime Terminal data.
Source: Prime TerminalThe US economic docket ahead will feature S&P Global Flash PMIs for July and New Home Sales data for June. Next week, the focus will be on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting
XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold tumbles back below $4,100, eyes on $4,000Gold is retreating from weekly highs of $4,165, with the non-yielding metal extending its losses past $4,050. This suggests a possible trend change was short-lived, opening the door to further downside.
The downtrend market structure remains intact as long as Bullion prices remain below $4,200. Hence, the path of least resistance is tilted to the downside.
Gold’s first support should be $4,000. Below, the next support would be the year-to-date (YTD) low of $3,941, followed by the October 28, 2025, low of $3,886, ahead of the April 22, 2025, swing high-turned-support at $3,500.
On the other hand, if buyers hope to remain hopeful of higher prices, they must overcome the $4,100 mark. Above lies the weekly high of $4,165, ahead of $4,200.
Gold daily chart Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Palladium daily chart, holding near 1,266 within a marked-up channel structure. Source: GoldPriceForecast.com Let’s begin with a quick recap before today’s update:
“(…) only a successful close of that gap would open the door for buyers to revisit the recent local highs and challenge the key resistance zone between 1324 and 1363, where the upper boundary of the red declining channel is also located.(…)”
So far, the market continues to develop exactly as expected.
The above-mentioned bearish gap has been filled, and buyers once again challenged the key resistance zone between 1324 and 1363, approaching the upper boundary of the red descending channel.
Once again, however, resistance proved too strong.
Buyers ran out of momentum before breaking higher, leading to another bearish gap (1293-1309) that quickly attracted fresh selling pressure. Over the following hours, palladium dropped back below the lower boundary of the green ascending channel.
What happens next?
If today’s session closes below that support, the 1250 area comes back into play.
More importantly, a daily close below the channel would confirm the broader bearish scenario, opening the door for a move toward 1180 over the coming days.
Today’s Takeaway Dollar (DX.F)
Price is testing the upper edge of the red descending channel. Above the recent highs, the next areas of interest on the chart sit at 102.00–102.10 and 102.41–102.50. The bullish scenario remains valid unless the breakout fails. Platinum (PL.F)
1553 is the level currently defining the range. Holding above support keeps consolidation alive. Break below 1553 -> opens the door toward 1540 and potentially the recent swing low. Palladium (PA.F)
The green ascending channel remains the key level to watch. Daily close below the channel -> increases the probability of a move toward 1250. Continued bearish momentum could extend the decline toward 1180. These are chart observations, not recommendations.
Anna
Gold 230726 Daily Chart Gold is losing ground as traders focus on the major rally in the oil markets. Oil prices are up by 7.5% as Houthis attacked Saudi Arabia’s tankers. Brent oil climbed above the psychologically important $100 level as traders prepared for major supply disruptions. The Strait of Hormuz is de-facto closed, and the Bab al-Mandab Strait may be shut by the Houthis.
Treasury yields gained ground as bond traders bet that Fed will be forced to raise rates to fight inflation triggered by high oil prices. The yield of 2-year Treasuries settled above the 4.35% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries moved towards 4.70%. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 35.8% chance that Fed will raise rates at the meeting next week. The probability of a rate hike in September is estimated at 82.7%. Rising Treasury yields and hawkish Fed policy outlook is bearish for gold that pays no interest.
U.S. dollar gained ground against a broad basket of currencies as demand for safe-haven assets increased amid rally in the oil markets. Stronger dollar put additional pressure on gold markets in today’s trading session.
Currently, gold is trying to settle back below the support at $4020 – $4040. In case this attempt is successful, gold will move towards the next support level, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. A move below the $3930 level will indicate that gold markets are ready to gain additional downside momentum. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
Silver Dives As Gold/Silver Ratio Climbs Above 70 Silver 230726 Daily Chart Silver is under strong pressure as gold/silver ratio settled back above the 70.00 level. In case gold/silver ratio stays above 70.00, it will head towards recent highs near the 72.50 level, which will be bearish for silver.
From the technical point of view, silver pulled back towards the support level at $56.00 – $57.00. If silver manages to settle below the $56.00 level, it will move towards the next support level at $51.00 – $52.00.
On the upside, silver needs to settle above the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00 to have a chance to gain sustainable upside momentum in the near term. A move above $62.00 will push silver towards the 50 MA at $65.79.
Platinum 230726 Daily Chart Platinum is losing ground amid broad pullback in precious metals markets. Palladium markets are down by -3%, which is bearish for platinum.
Platinum failed to settle above the $1650 level and pulled back below $1600. If platinum stays below the $1600 level, it will head towards the $1550 level. A move below $1550 will open the way to the test of the support at $1500 – $1520.
On the upside, a move above $1650 will push platinum towards the resistance at $1680 – $1700. In case platinum settles above $1700, it will head towards the 50 MA at $1727.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
The latest trading sessions continue to show weakness in the Japanese yen. This dynamic is reflected in USD/JPY, which has gained more than 0.7% over the last 3 sessions, highlighting the loss of strength in the Japanese currency.
For now, buying pressure in the pair remains supported by the wide rate differential with the United States, which could even widen over the coming months. In addition, renewed dollar strength, driven by updates in the Middle East, has also supported the advance in USD/JPY.
If these catalysts remain in place, buying pressure in the pair could continue to be relevant over the next few trading sessions.
Is the rate differential still weighing on the yen? Over the last few months, the rate differential between the United States and Japan has been one of the main factors behind yen weakness. While the Federal Reserve maintains a reference rate of 3.75%, Japan keeps one of the lowest interest rates in the world, near 1.00%.
This difference is also reflected in the bond market. Although bonds in both countries have shown recent increases in yields, the gap remains wide. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have already reached a new yearly high near 4.7%, while Japan’s 10-year bond yields remain much lower, around 2.7%.
Source: TradingEconomics
This dynamic continues to limit the appeal of the Japanese yen. Higher U.S. bond yields favor dollar-denominated investments over yen-denominated assets, a relationship that has remained in place for several months and has restricted demand for the Japanese currency.
What is relevant now is that this differential could widen even further. So far, there have been no major updates from the Bank of Japan pointing to a possible rate hike. In contrast, the Federal Reserve has started to reflect a higher probability of higher rates over the coming months.
According to the CME Group probability table, for the September 16 decision, there is still a dominant probability above 56% that the United States could deliver a rate hike, which would further widen the differential with Japan.
Source: CMEGROUP
As a result, if the market continues to see a stable Bank of Japan with no relevant changes, compared with a potentially more aggressive Federal Reserve, the rate differential could continue to favor the relative appeal of the dollar. This dynamic may make a sustained yen recovery more difficult and could maintain buying pressure in USD/JPY over the next few sessions.
Is Middle East becoming relevant again? New updates in the Middle East suggest that risk may be increasing not only around the Strait of Hormuz, but also in the Red Sea, following attacks carried out by Iran-backed groups from Yemen. This event adds to new U.S. military actions and reflects a scenario that still appears far from a negotiated solution in the short term.
The escalation continues to support oil prices, increase uncertainty and lift the market’s risk premium.
In this context, the U.S. dollar has started to show a renewed recovery. This is reflected in the DXY index, which measures the dollar’s strength against its main peers, and which has already moved above the 101-point area after several consecutive advances.
This suggests that, as seen in previous months, the dollar could be acting as a liquidity-driven safe-haven currency amid rising tensions in the Middle East.
Source: TradingEconomics
This dynamic is also important for the yen. If the conflict continues to escalate and the dollar maintains its strength as a safe-haven asset, the Japanese currency could struggle to regain ground consistently. For this reason, USD/JPY could continue to show buying pressure over the next few trading sessions.
Technical forecast for USD/JPY
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
Bullish trend appears unstoppable: For several months, USD/JPY has maintained a dominant bullish trend line. This structure remains the most relevant pattern on the chart, especially due to the lack of selling moves strong enough to put the main trend at risk. As long as buying pressure remains in place, this trend line could continue to act as the dominant technical reference over the next few sessions.
RSI: The RSI remains above the neutral 50 level, reflecting dominant buying impulses in the short term. However, it is also important to note that the indicator has started to form lower highs, while USD/JPY price action continues to register higher highs. This dynamic has created a possible bearish divergence, which could warn of excessive recent buying pressure and open room for potential short-term corrections
MACD: The MACD shows a histogram increasingly close to the neutral 0 area. This suggests that the strength of short-term moving averages is starting to balance out. For this reason, the indicator could also be anticipating a phase of greater neutrality on the chart over the next few sessions.
Key levels:
164.238 – Key resistance: Given the lack of relevant references from previous years, this level coincides with the 61.8% area of a trend-based Fibonacci extension. If price manages to approach this zone again, it could reinforce the buying bias and keep the bullish trend line as the dominant structure.
161.898 – Near-term barrier: This area works as an important technical reference, as it coincides with the highs recorded in previous weeks. It could also act as a tentative barrier in case of possible short-term corrections.
160.214 – Main support: This area remains the most relevant support on the chart. In addition to coinciding with recent retracements and acting as a psychological market level, it also aligns with the base of the major bullish trend line. Moves that approach this level again could put the bullish structure at risk and open room for a more relevant selling bias over the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
EUR/USD trades on the back foot on Thursday as the expanding war in the Middle East pushes Oil prices higher and fuels hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) expectations, boosting demand for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) decision to leave interest rates unchanged draws little market reaction.
At the time of writing, the pair trades around 1.1379, near three-week lows. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, trades around 101.40, recovering from an intraday low of 100.94.
From a technical perspective, EUR/USD has formed a base above 1.1350, although downside risks are building. On the daily chart, the pair retains a bearish near-term bias while trading below the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1415 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1504, with the 100-day SMA at 1.1576 reinforcing the broader bearish structure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 remains below the neutral 50 mark, highlighting persistent bearish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is marginally positive, suggesting that buying momentum remains tentative despite signs of stabilization.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 21-day SMA near 1.1415, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1504 and the 100-day SMA at 1.1576, ahead of the key horizontal resistance at 1.1700.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 1.1350. A sustained break below this level could expose the pair to deeper losses, while holding above it would reinforce the newly established base and keep the door open for a corrective rebound toward the nearby moving averages.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.29%0.39%0.36%-0.08%0.30%0.68%0.24%EUR-0.29%0.10%0.09%-0.39%0.00%0.41%-0.06%GBP-0.39%-0.10%-0.02%-0.50%-0.10%0.27%-0.15%JPY-0.36%-0.09%0.02%-0.44%-0.07%0.32%-0.13%CAD0.08%0.39%0.50%0.44%0.37%0.77%0.31%AUD-0.30%-0.00%0.10%0.07%-0.37%0.41%-0.04%NZD-0.68%-0.41%-0.27%-0.32%-0.77%-0.41%-0.47%CHF-0.24%0.06%0.15%0.13%-0.31%0.04%0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Key Points:EUR/USD pulled back below the 1.1400 level as traders reacted to ECB Interest Rate Decision. GBP/USD moved lower as traders focused on the strong rally in the oil markets. USD/JPY tested multi-decade higher amid rising Treasury yields.
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U.S. Dollar Moves Higher Amid Rising Demand For Safe-Haven Assets
DXY 230726 4h Chart U.S. Dollar Index gains ground as traders focus on the strong rally in the oil markets and react to the better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims report.
The report indicated that 187,000 Americans filed for unemployment benefits in a week, compared to analyst forecast of 212,000.
Oil prices gained 6.5% as Houthis attacked vessels linked to Saudi Arabia. Brent oil climbed above the psychologically important $100 level. As a result, demand for safe-haven assets increased, which was bullish for the U.S. dollar.
U.S. Dollar Index climbed above the resistance at 101.15 – 101.30 and is trying to settle above the 101.50 level. In case this attempt is successful, U.S. Dollar Index will move towards the resistance level at 101.80 – 101.95.
EUR/USD Retreats As ECB Leaves Rates Unchanged EUR/USD 230726 4h Chart EUR/USD is losing ground as traders react to ECB Interest Rate Decision. The European Central Bank left the interest rate unchanged at 2.4%, in line with analyst estimates.
Comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde showed that ECB was ready to raise rates in September due to high oil prices.
Currently, EUR/USD is trying to settle below the support level at 1.1350 – 1.1365. In case this attempt is successful, EUR/USD will head towards the next support level at 1.1270 – 1.1285.
GBP/USD Tests New Lows As Oil Prices Rally GBP/USD 230726 4h Chart GBP/USD is under pressure as traders focus on the potential impact of high oil prices. Demand for risk assets declined, which was bearish for the British pound.
From the technical point of view, GBP/USD moved below the support level at 1.3335 – 1.3350 and is trying to settle below the 1.3300 level. If GBP/USD manages to settle below 1.3300, it will head towards the support at 1.3250 – 1.3265. RSI has just moved into oversold territory, but there is enough room to gain additional momentum in the near term.
USD/CAD 230726 4h Chart USD/CAD is mostly flat as traders react to developments in commodity markets. Precious metals markets suffered a sell-off while oil markets soared. Other commodity-related currencies pulled back in today’s trading session.
Today, traders also focused on the Retail Sales report from Canada. The report showed that Retail Sales increased by +0.4% month-over-month in June, in line with analyst estimates.
If USD/CAD manages to settle back above the 1.4100 level, it will head towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the 1.4125 – 1.4140 range. A move above the 1.4140 level will open the way to the test of the resistance at 1.4235 – 1.4250.
USD/JPY Tests Multi-Decade Highs USD/JPY 230726 4h Chart USD/JPY tests new highs as traders focus on rising Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries climbed towards the 4.35% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled near 4.70%. Rising oil prices serve as a major negative catalyst for the Japanese yen as Japan’s economy is dependent on energy imports.
Currently, USD/JPY is trying to settle above the 164.00 level. In case USD/JPY manages to settle above 164.00, it will head towards the 165.00 level. It should be noted that RSI is in the overbought territory, so the risks of a pullback are rising.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade forex, please visit our educational area.
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Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
