From the week-ending November 15, 2024 to the week-ending January 30, 2026, Spot gold traveled from $2,536.85 to $5,602.23. It’s now testing the 50% to 61.8% range of that rally at $4,069.54 to $3,707.82. It’s been tested successfully before when Spot gold bottomed at $3,942.10. Based on past performance, it tells me that trader reaction to this zone could determine the intermediate direction of XAUUSD.
What to Watch
For Daily Spot Gold, my bias is to the downside. The downtrend on the main swing chart and trading below the 50-day moving average are controlling my downside bias. Although a technical rebound is possible, it will likely attract renewed selling pressure. A bounce from a major support area will be more important so we have to wait until it hits a potential value area between $3,942.10 to $3,886.46.
For weekly Spot Gold, my bias is also to the downside. It’s being supported by the trade on the weak side of the 52-week moving average and the downtrends on both the minor and main swing charts. A trade through $4,217.39 will turn the minor trend up and weaken my bearish outlook.
We’re also going to be watching the reaction to a test of $4,069.54 to $3,707.82. This zone produced a positive reaction before. We could see the same reaction this time, but it will be relatively meaningless unless buyers can recover $4,217.39.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
Canadian Dollar Forecast: Producer Prices Test October Rate Expectations
The Canadian Dollar's rally faces a test as CIBC questions how far factory-price increases will reach consumers, despite rising Bank of Canada hike risk.
The US Dollar to Canadian Dollar exchange rate was trading at 1.4017 on Friday, close to the 1.40 level after a week of gains for the Canadian currency.
Higher expectations for Canadian interest rates have helped that advance, but CIBC questions whether the producer-price shock warrants the policy response investors increasingly anticipate.
Its mechanical inflation model points to 3.2% CPI inflation in the first quarter of 2027, above its 2.9% house forecast.
The bank has not adopted that model result as its new baseline, even as it acknowledges a growing chance of an October rate rise.
A fresh producer-price increase sharpens the debate
Statistics Canada's September release put annual industrial product inflation at 14.5%, with prices rising 2.0% on the month.
Yet excluding energy and petroleum products, the monthly increase was a much smaller 0.3%.
Economists Helen Lao and Avery Shenfeld find that most of the consumer basket has little statistical connection with producer prices:
"But we find that only a third of the weight of the CPI basket, mainly in energy, food and some household goods as well as some services components such as homeowners' replacement cost and restaurants, show a statistically significant link to producer prices."
Energy can move both measures at the same time, which makes the relationship less useful as an early warning of future inflation.
CIBC cautions: "We don't, of course have the PPI data from here to the end of the year, and energy futures markets are dealing with considerable uncertainty over the prospects for a resolution of the Persian Gulf situation."
The analysis used August producer-price data, so the subsequent September release does not constitute an update to CIBC's model or forecasts.
Weak demand could limit the pass-through to shoppers
CIBC says: "This supply-side approach also could miss much of the downside pressure on inflation coming from the demand side of the Canadian economy."
"Canada has much less labour market tightness, and slower wage growth, than was the case when the Russia-Ukraine war led to an IPPI increase centered on energy and grains. The correlations from that period could therefore overstate the ability of the business sector to pass on cost increases in the current environment."
The bank's house forecast also allows for some easing in energy-supply disruption, an assumption that could lower inflation without requiring an immediate Canadian rate rise.
Lao and Shenfeld argue that the BoC still has time to assess the interaction between oil supply and US trade tensions:
"If a deal to resolve trade tensions is forthcoming, and no resolution is reached on oil supply issues, hiking in December, or even in January, would not represent a significant delay. But if oil prices abate and trade tensions escalate, hiking now would be a step that the central bank would likely regret."
That caution differs from Goldman's decision to bring its expected BoC hike forward to October, following the business and consumer surveys.
CIBC says the BoC's forthcoming Prima forecasting model emphasises firms' pricing decisions and cost pressures, potentially helping to explain Governor Tiff Macklem's greater concern:
"As a result, we see rising odds of a rate hike this month, even with recent core CPI and employment data leaning the other way, based on the impression that the Governor's remarks last weekend were designed to have markets pricing in that outcome."
How much rate support is already in the Canadian Dollar?
Scotiabank's Thursday assessment linked Canadian Dollar strength to a narrowing gap between US and Canadian yields, with markets then pricing 21 basis points of tightening at the 28 October meeting.
That was already close to a full quarter-point rise.
Spectra Markets' Brent Donnelly had warned earlier in the week that the rapid shift towards tighter policy could leave expectations too aggressive, particularly with headline and underlying inflation giving different signals.
Scotiabank's short-term technical view remained bearish for USD/CAD, meaning favourable for the Canadian Dollar, but identified potential congestion around 1.40.
Its strategists wrote: "We look to a near-term range bound between 1.3980 and 1.4080."
Those boundaries describe a technical trading range, not a year-end forecast.
What This Means for USD/CAD
A quarter-point BoC hike alone may offer limited fresh support if investors have already anticipated most of it. A stronger case for further increases could help USD/CAD break below the lower end of Scotiabank's range.
CIBC's doubts become more consequential if policymakers emphasise subdued underlying inflation and weak demand. A hold, or a hike accompanied by cautious guidance, could prompt investors to reassess the interest-rate support behind the Canadian Dollar's recovery.
Investors will need to judge whether the BoC expects the producer-price shock to spread, and how convincing that assessment is when much of the consumer basket follows other influences.
USD to TRY Forecast: ING Targets 51.50 at End-2026 After Turkey Cuts Rates Foreign exchange analysts at ING expect the Turkish Lira to weaken against the US Dollar, but see demand for its high yields surviving Turkey's renewed interest-rate cuts. Turkey's central bank cut its policy rate by 100 basis points to 36% on Thursday, matching ING's pre-decision call.
The US Dollar to Lira exchange rate was trading at 49.7372 on Friday, compared with ING's forecast of 51.50 at end-2026.
That implies roughly a 3.5% rise in USD/TRY, or a 3.4% decline in the Lira's Dollar value.
ING had linked its forecast to easing price pressures: "Inflation sentiment has improved after benign September data and expectations of weaker demand. We expect 100bp cuts in October and December, taking the policy rate to 35% by year-end, versus our 29.0% inflation forecast for year-end."
High interest income can coexist with a weaker Lira Frantisek Taborsky, ING's EMEA FX and fixed-income strategist, expects demand for Lira investments to survive the narrowing interest-rate advantage:
"Although crowded long TRY positions offer less and less carry, they remain popular in emerging markets, and we expect this demand to persist in the coming months despite renewed rate cuts."
"The recent weekly adjustment in USD/TRY does not alter the overall FX setup, and the carry trade continues. We expect a level of 51.50 USD/TRY by the end of the year."
Investors in a carry trade seek to earn more in interest than they lose through currency depreciation and funding costs.
Their willingness to hold Lira assets therefore need not imply an expectation that the exchange rate itself will strengthen.
A gradual decline was also central to MUFG's earlier assessment of the Lira's vulnerability to energy costs and weaker reserves, although ING places greater emphasis here on the durability of investment demand.
The fund shock creates room for cuts, but also risk Turkey's investment-fund disruption complicates the outlook: damage to household wealth and confidence can restrain spending and inflation, while financial losses could spread between institutions.
Taborsky's assessment before the decision was that the authorities had prevented the initial shock from becoming a wider flight from the currency:
"The authorities' swift response appears to have contained the fund shock, with no signs of systemic risk or a sharp rise in dollarisation, while foreign inflows have resumed."
Taborsky adds: "However, it may further weaken domestic demand through tighter liquidity, wealth losses and lower confidence. Repayments to smaller investors could cushion consumption, but counterparty exposures remain the main spillover risk."
Here, counterparty exposure means the possibility that trouble at one institution creates losses for others with financial claims on it.
The central bank's decision acknowledged weak domestic demand and slowing underlying inflation, while warning that elevated energy prices remained an upside risk.
It also retained the option of additional measures if unexpected developments in credit and deposit markets impaired the transmission of monetary policy.
What This Means for USD/TRY ING's 51.50 forecast allows for further depreciation while investors continue to earn interest on Lira holdings. Faster cuts or renewed financial stress could upset that balance by reducing the return investors receive for accepting currency risk.
The next decision is 10 December. ING's remaining 100-basis-point cut depends on inflation giving policymakers room to proceed; Thursday's reduction does not commit them to that outcome.
The central bank expressly retained the option to reverse course: "In case of a significant and persistent deterioration in the inflation outlook, monetary policy stance will be tightened."
The Pound-Dollar could hold above $1.34 if UK activity remains resilient, although weaker domestic data may temper expectations for further BoE tightening. The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate climbed to a five-week high on Thursday, with Sterling continuing to benefit from expectations of further Bank of England (BoE) interest rate increases.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3407, having eased from an earlier peak of $1.3418 but remaining modestly higher on the day.
Latest-Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.33793 (-0.18%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.120073 (-0.18%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 156.98193 (+0.29%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Pound (GBP) retained support from stronger-than-expected UK economic data released earlier in the week.
Tuesday's labour market report revealed an unexpected decline in unemployment, suggesting that employment conditions remain more resilient than economists had anticipated.
Wednesday's consumer price index (CPI) provided further encouragement for Sterling, with inflation accelerating more sharply than forecast.
The combination of falling unemployment and persistent inflation strengthened expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates at its November policy meeting.
Investors have also been considering the possibility of additional tightening during 2027, helping to maintain demand for the Pound despite concerns over the UK's economic outlook.
Nevertheless, Sterling struggled to extend its advance beyond Thursday's five-week high, with traders reluctant to push GBP/USD substantially higher ahead of another round of domestic economic releases.
The US Dollar (USD), meanwhile, remained under pressure as declining US Treasury yields reduced support for the American currency.
Lower bond yields have made Dollar-denominated assets relatively less attractive, particularly as markets reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve monetary policy.
Political uncertainty ahead of the US midterm elections also weighed on sentiment towards the 'Greenback'.
The contrast between UK and US interest rate expectations has become an increasingly important influence on GBP/USD.
While markets anticipate another Bank of England rate increase in November, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to leave borrowing costs unchanged at its next meeting.
This divergence has helped Sterling recover against the Dollar, although the outlook remains sensitive to incoming economic data.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Weak UK Retail Sales Could Test $1.34 The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate could face renewed selling pressure as investors assess the latest UK retail sales figures and preliminary October purchasing managers' index (PMI) surveys.
September's retail sales figures showed volumes contracting by 0.4%, a sharper decline than the 0.1% fall economists had anticipated.
The disappointing reading raises concerns that elevated household costs and higher borrowing rates are beginning to weigh more heavily on consumer spending.
Attention will now turn to the October PMI figures, which are expected to indicate slower activity across both the manufacturing and services sectors.
Further evidence of weakening economic momentum could temper expectations for an extended Bank of England tightening cycle, potentially limiting Sterling's recent gains.
For GBP/USD, the $1.3400 level remains an important near-term reference point after Thursday's advance to $1.3418.
A sustained move above the recent high could encourage further Sterling buying, while disappointing UK activity figures may prompt a retreat below $1.3400.
Across the Atlantic, the latest US PMI surveys could also influence trading if they reveal a slowdown in private-sector activity.
The University of Michigan's final October consumer sentiment index will provide another indication of household confidence.
A weaker reading could reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will remain on hold, potentially limiting any recovery in the US Dollar.
Choosing a mobile platform is not only about the number of instruments on offer. For people interested in precious metals, practical details such as weekend access, copy features, starting deposits, cost information, and monitoring tools can make a noticeable difference.
The five providers below take different approaches. VT Markets focuses on broader precious-metal access, eToro adds social features, XTB emphasizes cost visibility, Capital.com keeps the starting deposit relatively low, and IG offers detailed monitoring tools.
5 Mobile Platforms ComparedProvider
Rating
Main strength
Precious-metal access
Other instruments
VT Markets
9.3/10
Seven-day dealing
XAUUSD, XAUAUD, XAUEUR, XAUJPY, XAUUSD247
Forex, metals, indices, shares, ETFs, bonds
eToro
9.0/10
Copy features
Standard contract and GOLD.24-7
Stocks, ETFs, crypto, CFDs
XTB
8.8/10
Checking costs before entry
Commodity CFDs
More than 1,500 instruments
Capital.com
8.5/10
Lower starting deposit
Spot CFD
More than 5,000 instruments
IG
8.3/10
Custom notifications
27 commodities
Shares, forex, indices, commodities
1. VT MarketsBest for: Seven-day dealing
Contracts: XAUUSD, XAUAUD, XAUEUR, XAUJPY and XAUUSD247Minimum deposit: $50, or $10 with a Cent accountVT Markets offers multiple ways to trade gold from a phone, including a one-ounce XAUUSD247 contract that can be accessed throughout the week. That may appeal to clients who want to respond outside the standard weekday session.
The platform also quotes the precious metal against the Australian dollar, euro, and yen. Copy functionality, notifications, and live chat sit within the same interface, keeping commonly used tools in one place.
Pros
Cons
Multiple currency pairings
No FCA authorisation or FSCS protection
Seven-day contract
Weekend dealing can cost more
Copy functionality and live chat
Lowest entry level requires a Cent account
2. eToroBest for: Following other traders
Contracts: Standard contract plus GOLD.24-7Minimum to copy a trader: $200, with at least $1 assigned to each copied positioneToro's CopyTrader feature can automatically mirror positions opened by selected traders. This gives clients another way to approach precious-metal exposure without having to manage every order manually.
The platform also includes a continuously traded commodity product. A virtual portfolio is offered for practice, helping newcomers become familiar with the interface before committing real funds.
Pros
Cons
CopyTrader can mirror selected positions
$200 minimum before copying
Operates through regulated entities in multiple jurisdictions
Instrument-level costs are not always easy to compare
Practice mode
Product access depends on region and legal entity
3. XTBBest for: Estimating costs before entry
Quoted spread: from 0.8 pipsSelection on mobile: more than 1,500 instrumentsXTB publishes cost information for its gold CFD and includes a calculator in xStation. Clients can estimate the likely expense of a position before submitting an order.
Real-time sentiment data also appears beside the chart. This makes it easier to review both costs and broader positioning without moving between different screens.
Pros
Cons
Published dealing-cost information
Smaller selection than some rivals
Integrated calculator
No seven-day contract
Real-time sentiment data
CFDs only, with no physical ownership
4. Capital.comBest for: Starting with a smaller deposit
Minimum deposit: $20 for most payment methods, or $50 by bank transferInstrument selection: more than 5,000Capital.com has a relatively low published entry requirement. It also works alongside MT4, MT5, and TradingView, which may suit people already comfortable with those charting environments.
Margin notifications provide another practical layer of oversight. They can help clients keep track of exposure and funds when leveraged positions move quickly.
Pros
Cons
$20 minimum for most payment methods
Commodity costs are not always displayed prominently
MT4, MT5, and TradingView support
Retail CFD activity carries substantial risk
Margin notifications included
Leverage depends on region and account type
5. IGBest for: Flexible monitoring
Commodity range: 27 products, including goldChart tools: 28 technical indicatorsIG gives clients different ways to follow market movement without keeping a chart open all day. A notification can be linked to a chosen price level, percentage movement, economic release, or technical condition.
Up to four indicators can be combined, while messages may arrive through push, SMS, email, or the platform itself. That flexibility can be useful for people who want to stay informed while away from their usual device.
Pros
Cons
Signals based on quotes, indicators, and economic events
Weekend trading uses a separate instrument
28 technical indicators on mobile charts
Product charges may vary
Multiple delivery methods
Functionality can differ by device
Which Option Fits Different Needs?No single feature matters equally to everyone. Some people may value seven-day access, while others care more about copying experienced traders, checking costs before entry, starting with a smaller balance, or receiving detailed market updates.
VT Markets offers broad precious-metal coverage, eToro focuses on social features, XTB makes pre-order cost checking straightforward, Capital.com has a lower initial funding requirement, and IG provides flexible monitoring tools.
The USD/JPY pair stages a goodish intraday bounce from the 156.00 neighborhood, or an over one-month low touched earlier this Friday, and sticks to modest gains through the early European session.
Gold eased on Friday, headed for its steepest weekly decline in over four months as elevated oil prices bolstered higher-for-longer interest rate expectations, while investors awaited next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting.
Spot gold eased 0.1% to $4,021.04 per ounce by 0554 GMT, paring losses slightly after touching its lowest level since July 20 earlier in the session. The metal has fallen 3.6% so far this week, putting it on track for its worst week since June.
US gold futures for December delivery dropped 0.6% to $4,035.50.
Speculators are trying to defend the key $4,000 level for gold because a clean break below would signal that the market has stopped pricing rate relief and started pricing sticky inflation, elevated yields, and a stronger dollar, said Monte Safieddine, head of market research at Capital.com.
Oil prices rose on Friday after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia stoked concerns of further disruption to energy supplies from the Middle East.
Elevated energy prices bolster expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates by the Fed, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
"Any further escalation on the geopolitical front risks pushing oil even higher. Higher oil is reviving inflation fears, lifting yields, and delaying Fed easing. That is a difficult cocktail for bullion," Safieddine added.
Focus has turned to the Fed's October 27-28 policy meeting and next week's Personal Consumption Expenditures data, a closely watched gauge because it is the central bank's preferred inflation measure for its 2% inflation target.
Traders are largely expecting the central bank to leave interest rates unchanged next week, but expectations for an interest rate hike in December remain at 76%.
Meanwhile, analysts at HSBC cut their average 2026 platinum and palladium price forecasts in a research note on Thursday, citing shifting market fundamentals and investor liquidation.
Among other metals, spot silver slid 0.4% to $54.31 per ounce, platinum rose 0.3% to $1,574.33 and palladium gained 0.3% to $1,056.49.
However, all three metals were headed for weekly declines.
United Overseas Bank strategists (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that GBP/USD saw volatile swings but closed little changed, with no clear momentum shift.
Danske Bank highlights weaker Euro sentiment amid rising French CDS spreads, with EUR/CHF declining and EUR/USD briefly falling below 1.12. US and German bond yields also dropped across the curve, while Eurozone consumer confidence weakened more than expected in October. Attention turns to the upcoming flash PMIs, with the composite index expected to ease to 52.7 from 53.1, signalling continued moderate economic growth.
Bearish Euro and softer Treasury yields"EUR/CHF also dropped as the bearish EUR sentiment grew together with a new rise in the French CDS. EUR/USD also briefly fell below 1.12. Yields dropped across the curve both in US and Germany. Notably, the 10Y US Treasury yield fell below 5% for the first time in a month."
"In the euro area, consumer confidence fell more than expected in October to -17.9 (cons: -17.0, prior: -16.8), which is the lowest level since May."
"Weak confidence should weigh on consumption in the fourth quarter of the year. However, we saw decent consumption growth in Q2 despite plunging confidence, so the indicator is not the most reliable for spending at the moment. "
"In the euro area, the flash PMIs for October are released, which are set to be important for markets. Following a positive trend in the latest months, the PMIs are expected to show stabilisation with small declines. "
"The composite PMI is expected to fall to 52.7 from 53.1 which is still a strong level that indicates moderate growth in the economy, despite a small decline. We pay particular attention to the price components, which started to rise again last month due to higher energy prices."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey report Gold failed to benefit from the equity sell-off and falling US Treasury yields, with spot prices down 2.8% and nearing $4,000/oz. They argue the Gold market is focused on higher Oil prices and their inflation implications, which could reinforce tighter central bank policy while US inflation remains above the 2% target.
Higher energy undermines Gold
"Gold prices failed to benefit from yesterday's equity sell-off and the significant fall in US Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield falling back below 5%. Instead, gold prices came under pressure."
"Spot prices fell 2.8% and are nearing $4,000/oz."
"The gold market appears more focused on higher oil prices and what it could mean for inflation — and ultimately central bank policy."
"With US inflation still above the central bank’s 2% target, higher energy prices could intensify price pressures and strengthen the case for tighter monetary policy."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Markets also stripped almost a full quarter-point rate hike out of next year’s Fed pricing, on worries that a bursting AI bubble could derail the data center boom. Fewer expected hikes make holding dollars less rewarding, and that takes away part of the rate edge that has kept traders long the dollar. The yen and Swiss franc, the currencies investors usually buy in a scare, gained. The Fed is still expected to keep rates on hold at its October 27-28 meeting.
Euro: France’s Premium Hits a 15-Year High Softer US rate bets should have helped the euro, yet it has stayed flat around 1.12 because France is now the bigger worry. The premium investors demand to hold French 10-year bonds over German Bunds, meaning the extra interest France pays compared with Germany, the euro zone’s benchmark borrower, widened to a 15-year high on Thursday. That is the widest since November 2011, during the euro zone debt crisis, Reuters reported. France’s 10-year yield reached its highest level since July 2002, and the gap also widened for Belgium, Italy, Spain and Greece.
There is no easy rescue either. France is under an EU excessive deficit procedure, a formal EU process for countries whose budget deficit is too large, so it may not qualify for the ECB’s Transmission Protection Instrument, the central bank’s emergency tool for calming bond markets. ECB President Christine Lagarde has said the fix for France’s finances must be homegrown, which leaves the euro carrying that risk on its own.
EUR/USD Price Forecast
Every new EUR/USD analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all EUR/USD forecasts Pound: The Hike Case Holds Firm Sterling’s support comes from home. September inflation rose to 3.5%, and core inflation, which leaves out food, energy, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 2.8%. As a result, LSEG data show traders treating a quarter-point Bank of England hike to 4% on November 5 as almost certain. UK rate expectations are rising while US expectations are being trimmed, and that gap is what GBP/USD is trading on.
US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Holds 101.50 as 101.85 Caps the Rebound Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The US Dollar Index is trading near 101.68 on the 4-hour chart. Since the rise to 102.94 in mid-October, each bounce has topped out lower. DXY now sits below the faster moving average near 101.85, a line that tracks the recent average price.
Resistance, where sellers tend to step in, starts at 101.85, followed by 102.00. Support, where buyers have stepped in before, is 101.50, followed by 101.30.
USD/CAD remains steady after six days of losses, trading around 1.4010 during Asian hours on Friday. The pair is extending a corrective pullback below its short- and medium-term moving averages and keeping a bearish near-term bias.
USDJPY moving lower The Yen bounced back against the greenback as price action looks to erase all gains from the beginning of the month. A close below 157.00 indicates renewed selling pressure on USDJPY and could lead to a bearish continuation.
Key Points:Gold is set for a weekly loss of more than 3.5% as energy-driven inflation revives rate fears, and investors looking for safety buy Treasuries instead of bullion.Gold trades near $4,015 after breaking below the $4,075 October floor, with the $3,946 to $3,963 zone as the next support and $3,890 in view if it gives way.The Fed is expected to hold on October 27-28, but CME FedWatch shows about a 78% chance of at least one hike by December, keeping policy the main headwind.Silver trades near $54.05 in a falling channel after a fresh low near $53.43. A close below $53.46 opens $52.41 and $51.39, while $55.77 caps any rebound.Gold Loses Its Haven Bid as Oil Shock Revives Rate Fears Gold is set for a weekly loss of more than 3.5% after falling to its lowest level since July 20. This time, the Middle East conflict is working against the metal. Energy-driven inflation is outweighing its safe-haven appeal, and investors looking for safety are buying Treasuries instead.
Gold: Inflation Fears Trump Haven Demand Gold fell nearly 3% on Thursday after the New York Times reported that the US and Israel are preparing a short but intense military operation against Iran after the midterm elections, possibly targeting its energy infrastructure. Instead of lifting bullion, the report revived concerns that higher energy prices would keep US rates elevated, RTTNews said.
The flight to safety went to bonds. Worries about the funding needs of AI hit tech stocks and sparked the biggest one-day rally in Treasuries in more than three years, with the 10-year yield falling more than 19 basis points, Reuters reported. Lower yields usually help gold, because the metal pays no interest and holding it costs less when bond returns fall. This time gold failed to attract any haven demand, which shows how heavily inflation worries are weighing on the metal.
That is why policy expectations remain the main headwind. The Fed is widely expected to hold at its October 27-28 meeting after hotter-than-expected consumer and producer inflation data, but CME’s FedWatch tool shows about a 78% chance of at least one hike by December.
Silver: Hit From Both Sides Silver has fallen more sharply than gold and is down about 10% in October. Because it is both an investment metal and an industrial input, it is exposed to tighter monetary policy and to the growth risks of an energy shock, Business Today noted. Higher crude costs raise the risk of persistent inflation, and they also threaten the manufacturing demand behind silver’s industrial base.
What Comes Next Next week brings the Fed decision on October 28 and the September PCE inflation data on October 29. Both will show whether the energy-driven rate premium keeps pressure on the two metals.
Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Breaks Below $4,075 as $3,946 Comes Into Focus
Gold Price Chart Gold is trading near $4,015 on the 4-hour chart after a clean break below $4,075, a floor that had held all month. A falling trendline has capped every rally since late August, and price is now below both moving averages, so sellers remain in control.
The next support is the $3,946 to $3,963 zone, last tested in July. If that zone breaks, the way opens toward $3,890. On the upside, $4,075 is now the first resistance.
Gold Price Forecast
Every new Gold analysis as it publishes, today's technical signal and key levels, live price — on one page.
See all Gold forecasts RSI is near 26, deep in oversold territory, so a short bounce would not surprise me. Even so, I lean bearish while gold stays below $4,075. A recovery above that level would ease the pressure, while a close below $3,946 would strengthen the selling case.
Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Slides to $53.46 Inside a Bearish Channel
Silver Price Chart Silver is trading near $54.05 on the 4-hour chart, inside the falling channel that has guided prices lower since September. The latest rejection came near $58.09 at the top of the channel, and the drop that followed took silver to a fresh low near $53.43, just under the $53.46 support, before a small bounce.
If $53.46 gives way on a closing basis, $52.41 and then $51.39 come into play. On the upside, silver needs to clear $54.53 first, then $55.77.
RSI is near 28, so silver is also oversold and a relief bounce is possible. In my view, the bias stays bearish while silver trades below $55.77. A move above that level would ease the pressure, and a close below $53.46 would point to further losses.
Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
United Overseas Bank strategists (UOB) Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann report that EUR/USD outperformed modestly as the US Dollar (USD) softened, but price action remains choppy and largely directionless. In the near term, they expect intraday ranges around 1.1185–1.1250, while over the next 1–3 weeks the Euro (EUR) is seen consolidating in a narrower 1.1170–1.1270 band, with a corrective recovery potentially extending above the 21-day EMA.
Euro seen consolidating in tighter band"24-HOUR VIEW: Following Wednesday’s price action, we highlighted yesterday that “momentum indicators are mostly flat and today,” and we expected EUR “to range-trade between 1.1210 and 1.1250.” EUR subsequently rose to 1.1256, declined to 1.1188 and then rebounded to close at 1.1214 (-0.16%). We are not able to derive much from the price action. Today, EUR could trade between 1.1185 and 1.1250."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We have been expecting EUR to trade in a range since late last week. Yesterday (22 Oct, spot at 1.1230), we stated that “the price movements since then still appear to be part of a range-trading phase, but a narrower 1.1170/1.1270 range is likely sufficient to contain EUR for now.” We continue to hold the same view."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The Pound-New Zealand Dollar could remain supported if weak UK data is limited, while softer New Zealand inflation may keep RBNZ hike bets under pressure.
The Pound New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD) exchange rate rose on Thursday as softer New Zealand inflation dented the ‘Kiwi’.
At the time of writing, GBP/NZD traded at NZ$2.3560, up 0.3% on the day.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to New Zealand Dollar (GBP/NZD): 2.356379 (+0.34%)
Euro to New Zealand Dollar (EUR/NZD): 1.974324 (+0.24%)
New Zealand Dollar to Dollar (NZD/USD): 0.567929 (-0.43%)
DAILY RECAP:
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) fell during Thursday’s Asian trading session as markets digested the latest New Zealand inflation figures.
Price pressures cooled more than forecast in the third quarter. Inflation eased from 4.1% to 3.7%, below market expectations for 3.8%.
The data dampened bets that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) would raise interest rates at its policy decision next week, which put pressure on the ‘Kiwi’.
Additionally, a souring market mood dented demand for the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar.
Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) attracted limited support on Thursday, with Sterling seemingly enjoying the afterglow of high-impact data published earlier in the week.
Tuesday’s jobs report showed an unexpected decline in unemployment, while Wednesday’s consumer price index revealed a sharper-than-forecast rise in inflation.
Taken together, these releases fuelled bets that the Bank of England (BoE) could shift to a more hawkish approach to monetary policy over the coming months, which continued providing the Pound with support into Thursday’s session.
Near-Term GBP/NZD Forecast: Downbeat UK Data to Dent Sterling?
Looking ahead, Sterling could face headwinds through the final session of the week as markets react to new economic data.
The UK’s latest retail sales figures are forecast to show a 0.1% contraction in sales growth in September, which could raise concerns about the country’s economic resilience.
Later in the morning, the preliminary PMI results for October are expected to show that activity in the UK services and manufacturing sectors slowed. This could increase pressure on the Pound.
Elsewhere, market risk appetite may impact GBP/NZD. If a risk-off mood prevails, the risk-sensitive New Zealand Dollar may face resistance.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Silver price (XAG/USD) claws back a majority of its early losses and rebounds to near $54.50 in the early European trade on Friday. The white metal bounces back after posting a fresh Year-Till-Date (YTD) low near $53.46.
Gold recently broke the support zone between the key support level 4100.00 (which has been reversing the price from the end of September, stopping waves iii, v and 2) and the lower daily Bollinger Band.
The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active downward impulse, which started earlier from the top of wave ii at 4400.00 in the middle of September.
Given the clear daily downtrend, Gold can be expected to fall further toward the next support level 3970.00 – which stopped all downward waves from July.
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The EUR/USD pair trades in negative territory around 1.1210 during the early European trading hours on Friday. Worries about France's ability to tackle its huge debt burden have hurt French government bonds and exert some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar (USD).
Gold XAU/USD faces renewed downward pressure after falling below its recent consolidation range. The price briefly dropped below $4,000 before returning to around $4,007. Higher energy costs have revived inflation concerns ahead of the Federal Reserve policy decision. Attention now turns to whether gold can stabilize or extend its decline toward the lower channel boundary.
Oil prices and Fed policy keep Gold under pressureGold is extending its decline as rising oil prices complicate the interest rate outlook. WTI crude is trading near $100, with tensions involving the United States and Iran threatening energy supplies. Higher fuel costs can feed into transport and production expenses. That raises the risk of persistent inflation and gives central banks less room to lower borrowing costs. Gold pays no interest, so higher rates can reduce its appeal relative to assets that provide income. However, lower oil prices could ease inflation concerns. That could reduce expectations of further rate increases if other price pressures also start to fade.
The attack near the Shaybah oil field has added to concerns about regional energy infrastructure. President Donald Trump has also invoked the Defense Production Act to support petroleum production, refining, pipelines and fuel storage. Such measures could ease supply constraints over time, but projects need financing and construction before they add capacity. Geopolitical uncertainty can support demand for gold as a defensive asset. The latest price decline suggests that concern over higher interest rates currently carries more weight.
The Federal Reserve will announce its decision on Wednesday, 28 October. Markets expect the policy rate to remain at 3.75%–4.00%, but an unchanged rate would not remove the possibility of another increase. Comments from Chair Kevin Warsh will therefore matter. Investors will assess his views on inflation and demand linked to artificial intelligence investment. Gold could fall if the Fed suggests it may raise interest rates again. A more cautious assessment could ease some of that pressure.
Gold technical analysis: $3,950 emerges as the next supportThe chart below shows gold moving within a descending channel on the four-hour timeframe. Repeated declines from the upper boundary point to a continuing downward trend. The latest fall has pushed the price below the dashed centre line. That leaves gold in the lower half of the channel. The red descending support line now sits close to $4,015–$4,020, making this area an immediate test of whether the decline is slowing.
Gold reached roughly $3,986 before returning above $4,000. The lower wick shows that the price moved away from its low, but one candle does not establish a reversal. If gold closes below $4,000 and remains there, attention could shift toward the marked $3,950 reference. This area sits close to the lower boundary of the descending channel, making $3,950 an important technical support reference. The channel boundary slopes lower, so its value changes with time.
On the upside, the dashed channel line near $4,040–$4,050 provides the first reference area. A move above it would improve the immediate structure, but gold would still need to regain the former range floor around $4,067. Holding above that level could bring the upper channel boundary near $4,140–$4,160 into focus. A stronger technical improvement would require a clear move above that boundary.
Gold price outlook: Oil supply disruptions complicate rate outlookGold remains under pressure within its descending channel. Rising oil prices and uncertainty over interest rates continue to weigh on the outlook. A close below $4,000 could bring support near $3,950 into focus. Gold would need to move above nearby resistance and hold there to show clearer signs of stabilization. The Federal Reserve message could shape the next move.
Gold prices fell in India on Friday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 12,225.43 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 12,280.85 it cost on Thursday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 142,615.30 per tola from INR 143,241.50 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
12,225.43
10 Grams
122,268.20
Tola
142,615.30
Troy Ounce
380,253.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
USD/JPY failed to settle above 159.00 and dipped. It traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 158.00 on the 4-hour chart. GBP/USD could start a pullback from the 1.3420 resistance. Gold prices reacted to the downside and might even test $3,880. USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar failed to remain in a positive zone against the Japanese Yen. USD/JPY started a fresh decline below 158.00 and 157.50.
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the pair even traded below a key bullish trend line with support at 158.00. There was a close below 157.50 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). Finally, the pair spiked below the 200 simple moving average (green, 4-hour).
It tested the 156.70 zone and started a consolidation phase. If there is a recovery wave, the pair could face resistance near the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 158.60 swing high to the 156.69 low.
The first major resistance might be near 158.00 and the 100 simple moving average (red, 4-hour). A close above 158.00 could start a steady increase. In the stated case, the pair might even surpass 158.60.
Conversely, the pair could see another decline. Immediate support could be 156.70. The first major support might be 156.25. A close below 156.25 might accelerate the decline. In the stated case, the pair might drop to 155.50. The main support might be close to 155.00.
Looking at Gold, the price failed to surpass the $4,220 resistance, dipped again, and might drop toward the $3,880 support.
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TL;DR: Gold briefly traded below $4,000 even as the US 10-year yield fell ~17bps to 4.96% on a tech-led equity selloff—a breakdown in the usual rate relationship that points to liquidity and positioning pressures, and possibly forced liquidation. The break below 4,066.21 support puts the 3,942–3,924 zone in immediate focus, with a deeper risk toward 3,750 if selling accelerates.
Why This Matters
Gold’s latest decline has exposed an unusual divergence across traditional defensive assets. While the technology-led equity selloff drove investors toward US Treasuries, pushing the 10-year yield down approximately 17 basis points to 4.96%, gold continued falling and briefly traded below $4,000. Inflation-adjusted Treasury yields also declined, yet the usual support from lower real interest rates failed to materialize. The contrast suggests that liquidity and positioning pressures may be outweighing gold’s traditional rate sensitivity, although forced liquidation has not been independently confirmed.
Technically, the break below 4,066.21 indicates that gold’s decline from 4,697.07 has resumed, potentially entering its fifth downward leg. The immediate focus is the 3,942–3,924 support region, where an initial rebound is possible. However, a decisive break would expose a deeper downside objective around 3,750. Nasdaq Composite support near 25,803 and the US 10-year yield’s position below 5% offer additional signals for assessing whether the broader defensive market adjustment is intensifying or stabilizing.
Gold Falls Despite Sharp Decline in Treasury Yields
Gold extended its decline on Thursday as selling in technology shares intensified, briefly dropping below the psychological $4,000 to an intraday low near 3,986 today. Silver also suffered a steeper decline, reflecting additional vulnerability to concerns about industrial demand and economic growth. The weakness in precious metals contrasted with the strong performance of US government bonds, where defensive buying drove Treasury yields sharply lower.
The divergence is particularly notable because the fall in Treasury yields was accompanied by a decline in real interest rates. The US 10-year nominal yield dropped from approximately 5.13% to 4.96%, while the corresponding inflation-adjusted yield eased from around 2.76% to 2.64%. Lower real yields ordinarily reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold. Yet bullion failed to benefit, suggesting that other selling pressures were dominating its near-term price behavior.
The timing also matters. Gold’s decline began before the full Treasury rally developed, indicating that the initial selling cannot be attributed solely to liquidity pressures generated by the subsequent equity retreat. Nevertheless, gold’s continued weakness as real yields fell suggests that the traditional interest-rate relationship was not providing its usual support.
AI Selloff Drives Defensive Treasury Demand
US technology shares suffered another substantial setback as investors questioned the financing requirements and potential returns from large-scale AI investment. Nasdaq Composite fell approximately 2.6% on Thursday, its largest daily decline since June, while S&P 500 lost around 1.2%. Nvidia and other semiconductor-related companies were among the notable decliners, extending the pressure that had already affected Asian and European technology stocks.
The central concern has shifted from whether AI investment is generating revenue growth toward whether the scale of capital expenditure can deliver adequate financial returns. Recent corporate earnings have done little to settle that debate, leaving investors increasingly sensitive to investment guidance and funding requirements. The resulting weakness in technology shares encouraged defensive demand for Treasuries, pushing yields lower.
The Treasury rally reflected a search for safety, but gold did not participate. That divergence raises the possibility that investors were responding differently to the two assets: buying government bonds for protection while reducing liquid positions elsewhere to manage portfolio exposure. It also suggests that the market reaction involved more than a straightforward reassessment of interest-rate expectations.
Why Did Lower Yields Fail to Support Gold?
Liquidity-driven selling offers a plausible explanation for gold’s unusual underperformance. When equity markets decline, leveraged investors facing portfolio losses, margin requirements or tighter risk limits may need to raise cash quickly. Gold’s liquidity can make it a source of funds, even when its longer-term investment characteristics remain attractive. HSBC has highlighted how margin-related liquidation can undermine gold’s short-term effectiveness as an equity-market hedge, while Invesco has separately warned that investors may sell profitable gold positions to meet liquidity needs during periods of financial stress.
The latest price movements are consistent with that mechanism, particularly as gold weakened alongside technology shares despite falling nominal and real Treasury yields. A break through technical support may also have encouraged further position reductions, reinforcing the decline. However, the extent of forced selling remains unverified. There is insufficient contemporaneous evidence from ETF flows, futures transactions or margin data to establish how much of Thursday’s decline was attributable to leveraged liquidation.
Earlier speculative positioning provides some context. CFTC data showed managed-money net longs in COMEX gold futures declining from approximately 127,400 contracts in late September to 107,100 by October 13, indicating that bullish exposure was already being reduced before the latest selloff. Those figures do not capture Thursday’s trading, however, and cannot confirm whether liquidation subsequently accelerated. For now, the evidence supports an interpretation in which liquidity and positioning pressures temporarily overwhelmed the favorable interest-rate backdrop, rather than proving that forced selling was the dominant cause.
ActionForex’s Technical View: Gold, Fifth Downward Leg Targets 3,924
Gold’s break below 4,066.21 support suggests that the decline from 4,697.07 has resumed. Under the developing wave structure, the fall from 4,198.93 is interpreted as the fifth leg of the downward sequence, following the failure of the preceding recovery. Both the four-hour and daily charts remain under pressure, with prices trading below their respective 55 EMAs near 4,124 and 4,231.
The immediate downside objective is the 61.8% projection of 4,510.90 to 4,066.21 from 4,198.93 at 3,924.12. This lies just below the previous low at 3,942.43, creating an important support region around 3,924–3,942. With the four-hour RSI near 29, selling momentum is becoming stretched, and an initial rebound from this area would not be surprising. Nevertheless, the near-term outlook would remain bearish while 4,198.93 resistance holds.
A firm break below 3,924.12 would indicate further downside acceleration toward the 100% projection at 3,754.24. This closely coincides with the larger daily projection around 3,748–3,749 and the lower boundary of the medium-term descending channel. The convergence makes 3,748–3,754 a potentially significant support area for a more durable bottom, should the current decline extend that far.
Nasdaq and Treasury Yields: Cross-Asset Tests of Market Stress
Two developments outside the gold market could help determine whether the conditions associated with its latest decline are intensifying. Nasdaq Composite is approaching important structural support at 25,802.96, following Thursday’s fall toward 26,009. A sustained break would indicate an extension of the equity decline, exposing the 38.2% retracement of the advance from 20,690.25 to 27,722.75 at approximately 25,036.35. Further equity weakness could increase portfolio risk-reduction pressures, although the technical break would not itself establish additional forced liquidation.
Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen toward its daily 55 EMA near 4.975% and below the psychological 5% threshold. Sustained weakness through this area would strengthen the case for an extension toward the 38.2% retracement of the rise from 3.926% to 5.365%, at approximately 4.815%. A recovery above 5%, particularly alongside stabilizing equities, would suggest that defensive Treasury demand may be easing.
The most revealing combination would be a break of Nasdaq support accompanied by a further decline in Treasury yields. If gold continued weakening under those conditions, the case for liquidity and positioning pressures overriding its traditional rate sensitivity would strengthen. Conversely, equity stabilization alongside reduced Treasury demand could suggest that the immediate defensive adjustment is losing momentum, potentially easing selling pressure on gold.
For now, gold’s failure to benefit from lower real yields remains the central market signal. While the precise scale of leveraged liquidation is uncertain, the technical breakdown keeps the 3,924 support region in focus, with a deeper decline toward 3,748–3,754 becoming a more credible risk if selling accelerates.
Key Takeaways
Gold briefly traded below $4,000 even as the 10-year Treasury yield fell ~17bps to 4.96% and real yields declined—a breakdown in gold’s usual rate sensitivity that points to liquidity/positioning pressure, not confirmed forced selling.
Nasdaq’s 2.6% drop (its worst since June) on renewed AI-financing concerns drove the defensive Treasury demand that gold failed to benefit from.
CFTC data show managed-money gold longs already falling from ~127,400 to ~107,100 contracts between late September and October 13, though this predates Thursday’s selloff.
Gold’s key technical level is 3,942–3,924 support (the fifth leg of the decline from 4,697.07); a firm break below 3,924.12 opens a deeper target near 3,748–3,754.
Watch Nasdaq’s 25,803 support and the 10-year yield’s position below 5% together—a break of both while gold keeps falling would confirm liquidity pressures are dominating gold’s price action.
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ActionForex.com was set up back in 2004 with the aim to provide insightful analysis to forex traders, serving the trading community for two decades. We started providing only a daily and a mid-day report, now known as Action Insights. Gradually, we added a lot more in-house contents to the site. Technical Outlook section was expanded to cover more pairs. In addition to that, Top Movers, Heat Map, Pivot Point Charts and Pivot Meters, Action Bias and Volatility Charts, are tools used by traders from all over the world.
Gold (XAU/USD) rebounds slightly after dropping to a fresh three-month low, below the $4,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Friday, though the upside seems limited. The Federal Reserve (Fed) recently signaled that there is no urgency to raise interest rates. Traders, however, are still pricing in around an 80% chance that the US central bank will raise borrowing costs again at its December policy meeting. Moreover, oil-driven inflation fears underpin prospects for further Fed tightening, which turns out to be a key factor driving flows away from the non-yielding bullion.
In fact, crude oil prices sit near a one-month peak, touched on Tuesday, due to supply concerns stemming from escalating conflict in the Middle East. The fighting between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi movement has escalated sharply, leading to Houthi drone and missile strikes on the kingdom's airports and critical energy infrastructure. In further developments, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that renewed US attacks could prompt Tehran to invade neighbouring countries and hit bases used in US military operations as part of its new offensive strategy.
This comes on top of a report that the US and Israel have drawn up plans for a short but intense military campaign against Iran after the US midterm elections and keeps the geopolitical risk premium in play. Moreover, hawkish Fed expectations help the safe-haven USD to recover slightly from a three-week low, which exerts additional downward pressure on the Gold price. Traders, however, might refrain from placing fresh directional bets and opt to wait for more cues about the Fed's policy path. Hence, the focus will remain on next week's highly anticipated two-day FOMC meeting.
The Fed will announce its decision on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. In the absence of updated economic projections, investors will scrutinize the accompanying policy statement and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's comments during the post-meeting press conference. This will be followed by the release of the Advance US Q3 GDP report and the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index – the Fed's preferred inflation gauge – next Thursday, which will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide a fresh impetus to the Gold price.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisThe overnight breakdown below a short-term trading range support and a sustained close below the $4,100 mark was seen as a key trigger for XAU/USD bears. Moreover, the Relative Strength Index at 34.34 hovers just above oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -6.51 stays in negative territory, hinting that downside pressure persists despite some early signs of stabilization. The precious metal, however, shows some resilience below the $4,000 psychological mark, warranting some caution before positioning for further losses.
Meanwhile, any attempted recovery is more likely to attract fresh sellers and fizzle out near the trading range support breakpoint, now turned resistance, near the $4,065-$4,070 region. This is followed by the $4,100 round figure, which, if conquered, could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the XAU/USD pair to the $4,170 intermediate hurdle en route to the $4,200 mark. Sustained strength and acceptance above the latter is needed to back the case for a sustained near-term recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
Gold slides to a fresh three-month low at $3,986.74 in the Asian trade on Friday. The precious metal faces intense selling pressure, following a consolidation breakdown that took place on the range between $4,227.90 and $4,066.64 in the past three weeks.
EUR/JPY gains ground after two days of losses, trading around 176.10 during Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart shows the currency cross remains within a descending channel pattern, indicating a persistent bearish bias.
Silver (XAG/USD) drops to its lowest level since November 2025 during the Asian session on Friday, with bears now looking to extend the downward momentum below the $54.00 mark.
Thursday's tech stock tantrum has been replaced by Friday's fire sale, with losses extending on the Nikkei 225, taking the index below its key 200-day moving average. That raises the risk of additional downside and further selling pressure in other AI-linked markets, along with US Treasury yields and potentially the US dollar.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) sets the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Friday at 6.7180 compared to the previous day's fix of 6.7195 and 6.6758 Reuters estimate.
Gold price (XAU/USD) falls to the lowest in more than two months near $4,025 during the early Asian session on Friday. The precious metal faces some selling pressure as escalating tensions in the Middle East send oil surging ahead of a Federal Reserve (Fed) policy meeting.
The global oil benchmark surged after deadly attacks in Saudi Arabia heightened concerns about regional supplies and stoked worries over an energy-driven inflationary shock. Elevated energy costs increase the possibility that the US central bank will need to further adjust monetary policy to contain price pressures.
Yemen's Houthi said that it carried out an attack on an airport in eastern Saudi Arabia on Wednesday evening. Additionally, the drone was intercepted as it attempted to target a processing facility owned by Saudi Arabia's state oil company Aramco in the Shaybah oil field, where a contractor's vehicle was set ablaze, per the BBC.
The Fed decided to raise interest rates last month for the first time since 2023, with markets anticipating further tightening later this year. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh last week avoided signalling the outcome of this month’s policy meeting but noted that hotter-than-expected inflation had not changed his assessment of the US economy.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the chance of no change in rate at the October meeting now stands at 92.8%. Higher interest rates typically weigh on gold because the precious metal does not pay interest, making yield-bearing assets relatively more attractive.
Gold consolidates below key resistance as Societe Generale flags downside risksAnalysts at Societe Generale note that Gold has "carved out an interim low near $4,065 earlier this month and has since evolved within a narrow consolidation." They highlight that "the upper boundary of this range at $4,200/4,225 represents a short-term resistance zone," cautioning that "failure to overcome this hurdle could denote the risk of a deeper pullback." On the downside, the bank points out that "the lower boundary of the consolidation near $4,065 serves as the first support," warning that "a break below this may extend the decline towards the June low at $3,960/3,940 and projections near $3,830."
Warsh flags investment surge and AI risks as Fed keeps options open into year-endFed Chair Warsh delivered a moderately cautious tone, with the FXS Speechtracker score of 5.6/10 coming in softer compared to the established baseline of 6.1/10, suggesting slightly less conviction than usual. The admission of being “over-scarred from the global financial crisis” underscores a bias toward risk management and vigilance on financial stability even as Warsh highlights a structural growth and investment surge driven by “good policies.” Emphasis on not pre-judging the October and December meetings keeps policy optionality high, reinforcing a data-dependent stance as the Fed “crystalizes” views on output, employment, and inflation while closely watching AI’s demand-side effects and tail risks.
The FXS Fed Sentiment Index was unchanged, with a 0.00-point move leaving the level at a firmly hawkish 127.51, signaling that despite a slightly softer speech score, the broader policy backdrop remains restrictive. The combination of a high index reading and a mid-range FXS Speechtracker score suggests markets still price a hawkish Fed reaction function, even as Warsh stresses flexibility and acknowledges uncertainty around AI and near-term employment impacts.
Technical Analysis: Gold remains capped under the 100-day SMAIn the daily chart, XAU/USD extends a bearish near-term bias as spot remains below a dense band of moving average and volatility-based resistances. The 20-day Bollinger middle band and the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) both sit above price, suggesting rallies are likely to be sold while the metal trades under these reference lines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 35 hovers just above oversold territory, hinting that downside momentum is still present but could slow as conditions turn increasingly stretched.
On the topside, initial resistance emerges at the lower Bollinger band around $4,055, followed by the 20-day Bollinger middle band near $4,150. Higher up, the 100-day SMA at about $4,230 and the upper Bollinger band close to $4,245 form a broader supply zone that would need to be reclaimed to ease the prevailing bearish pressure and open the door to a more sustained recovery.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
EUR/USD Forecast: October ECB Pause Expected Before Further Hikes MUFG expects the Euro to recover against the US Dollar next year, but its French fiscal scenarios underline the risks before the ECB's October meeting. The Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate slipped to $1.1215 on Thursday, down 0.17%, leaving it close to MUFG's end-2026 projection.
The bank retains its forecast of 1.12 for the final quarter of this year, followed by a gradual recovery to 1.18 by September 2027.
That would put the Euro roughly 5.2% above Thursday's level, calculated by Exchange Rates UK.
But MUFG's assessment of France is less reassuring than that medium-term path might suggest.
Its most likely French fiscal scenario places EUR/USD in a lower range, making budget delivery an important test of the recovery outlook ahead of the ECB's 29 October decision.
Image: EUR/USD 5-day chart France's budget problem extends beyond passing legislation MUFG assigns a 45% probability to continued fiscal drift as France approaches its presidential election.
In that scenario, MUFG envisages EUR/USD at 1.08-1.14, while the extra yield investors demand to hold French rather than German ten-year government debt widens to around 170 basis points.
These are conditional market outcomes, separate from the bank's retained quarterly forecasts, rather than a replacement September target.
MUFG's economists and strategists write: "The government may force through some measures, offering temporary relief, but the bigger question is whether upcoming elections can clear the path for sustained fiscal repair."
Their scenario describes how that risk could unfold:
"As the presidential election approaches, political incentives increasingly outweigh fiscal considerations. The government is forced to make concessions and relies on procedural mechanisms to advance key legislation, while some measures are diluted or delayed."
"The government survives, but implementation falls short of ambition and markets become increasingly sceptical. The deficit remains elevated at 5.6-6.0% of GDP."
French bond tensions were already limiting the Euro's ability to benefit from a weaker Dollar earlier this week, when Scotiabank highlighted weak momentum despite an improving weekly chart.
MUFG nevertheless judges contagion across Eurozone bond markets to be relatively contained so far.
Its concern is the damage that persistent French borrowing pressure could do to confidence and financial conditions, rather than an assumption that a wider crisis has already begun.
Higher bond yields complicate the ECB's inflation response Rising borrowing costs can restrain demand before the ECB raises its own policy rate, reducing the need for immediate tightening.
For the Euro, that can mean less support from expected interest rates even while French government yields climb.
MUFG says: "The bond sell off and French fiscal risks have taken an October rate hike off the table, with ECB officials starting to highlight the impact of tighter financial conditions on the outlook. Underlying inflation pressures also remain contained."
The bank still expects quarter-point increases in December and the first quarter of 2027.
MUFG says: "However, resilient activity and higher gas prices since September still support a degree of tightening into slightly restrictive territory, on a risk-management basis."
Eurostat's final September figures put annual inflation at 3.8%, up from 3.2% in August, with energy making the largest contribution.
Crédit Agricole separately expects an October pause, followed by a deposit rate of 2.75% in December and 3.00% in March 2027.
Louis Harreau, its head of developed markets macro and strategy, argues against accelerating the pace:
"Several ECB members have highlighted the need to be gradual in the monetary tightening. Besides, changing the pace of hikes (one per quarter since June) could convey a sense of urgency and trigger a market overreaction."
He also expects the ECB to avoid promising those subsequent increases, leaving investors to judge the outlook from incoming data and Christine Lagarde's comments.
France could make that press conference particularly sensitive.
Harreau says: "In our view, the key risk for the ECB is to trigger worries regarding the ECB's ability (or willingness) to step in."
"Currently, the ambiguity of a possible intervention is probably beneficial to limit extreme volatility on the market. If the ECB is too clear about the terms of its interventions or if, in contrast, it commits too explicitly about a potential intervention, it could trigger unwarranted market volatility."
What This Means for EUR/USD MUFG's 1.18 projection points to a recovery over several quarters, with little change envisaged before end-2026. An October pause would fit both banks' expectations and would not, by itself, overturn that outlook.
The more immediate risk is a loss of confidence in French fiscal delivery that keeps borrowing costs elevated and encourages investors to scale back expected ECB tightening.
On 29 October, reassurance about the bond market alongside a continued willingness to tackle inflation could help the Euro. A recovery will be harder to sustain if investors doubt either France's ability to deliver its budget or the ECB's capacity to contain the resulting financial strains.
Recent trading sessions have not been particularly eventful for EUR/USD price action in the short term. In fact, recent moves have been limited to roughly 0.2%, highlighting a clear lack of direction within the market.
DBS Group Research’s Philip Wee notes that USD/IDR has been relatively stable after Bank Indonesia kept its benchmark rate at 5.75% while deploying targeted tools to support the Indonesian Rupiah. The report highlights BI’s focus on currency stabilisation, Jakarta’s response to MSCI downgrade risks, and the possibility of USD/IDR moving back into a 17500-18000 range if global Dollar strength eases.
Rupiah steadies as BI targets FX"USD/IDR edged up 0.2% after Bank Indonesia left its benchmark rate unchanged at 5.75%. The IDR’s 0.16% depreciation was muted against the USD, reflecting mixed expectations for a hike or hold and BI’s alternative measures to defend the currency."
"Together with continued intervention in spot and forward FX markets, these measures underscored BI’s preference for targeted currency stabilisation over outright monetary tightening from MSCI-led market volatility."
"Hence, we need to distinguish between political rhetoric and policy efforts – BI’s actions to contain short-term currency volatility and Jakarta’s measures to restore longer-term investor confidence – in securing a sustained IDR recovery."
"Nevertheless, there are tentative signs that the IDR may be finding its footing. Since May, USD/IDR has increasingly mirrored movements in the DXY Index."
"Hence, we cannot rule out USD/IDR returning to a lower 17500-18000 range if the DXY declines to 99 from its overnight close of 101.7."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The USD/CHF edges lower, losing 0.46% and dropping towards 0.8200 as safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc and the Japanese Yen are the only currencies appreciating versus the Greenback during the day. The pair trades at 0.8205.
Indian Rupee Forecast: Crédit Agricole Retains 92 Outlook for September 2027
The Indian Rupee slips against the US Dollar, while Crédit Agricole retains a 2027 recovery view that needs more than higher domestic interest rates.
The US Dollar-to-Indian Rupee exchange rate climbed 0.41% to 94.6994 on Thursday, reversing most of Wednesday's decline as the Rupee's recent recovery faltered.
Crédit Agricole retains a forecast of further weakness before the end of the year, with USD/INR at 96 in December 2026.
It then expects a Rupee recovery to 92 by September 2027, with that level maintained at the end of next year.
That would mean the Rupee gaining 2.9% against the Dollar from Thursday's rate, by our calculation.
Higher Indian rates are already part of the forecast
Crédit Agricole expects the RBI's repo rate to reach 5.75% at end-2026 and 6% by March 2027, remaining there through the rest of next year.
That represents two further quarter-point increases from the current 5.50%.
In an earlier assessment following October's RBI decision, senior FX strategist David Forrester wrote:
"We expect another two 25bp rate hikes by RBI, taking the Repurchase rate to 6.00% and modestly into restrictive territory. This outlook is about in line with the market pricing following the RBI meeting outcome and so would not move the INR much if realised."
The newly published RBI minutes reveal differing views on sustained tightening, despite unanimous support for this month's increase.
Governor Sanjay Malhotra left subsequent action dependent on growth and inflation, while external member Ram Singh resisted a shift away from a neutral stance.
"I do not favour shifting the stance from neutral to tightening mode, as it may signal an extended cycle of rate hikes," Singh said, according to the Financial Express.
Official figures show September inflation accelerated to 5.54% from 4.83% in August.
The recovery case also depends on conditions abroad
Crédit Agricole's earlier India analysis, published before the latest US inflation figures, explained why domestic policy alone might struggle to deliver a lasting recovery.
Forrester wrote:
"The INR's problems are primarily structural rather than speculative and include rising oil prices, Fed rate hikes and the sharp sell-off in USTs eroding Indian government bonds' rate advantage and investor portfolio outflows as foreign investors remain bearish on Indian equity markets, despite 7-8% real GDP growth."
Higher Indian rates can improve the income available on Rupee assets, but that advantage diminishes if US yields rise too.
The RBI's measures can ease immediate Dollar demand without removing the wider pressures on the Rupee.
The bank's latest assessment acknowledges that stronger US inflation has made the Federal Reserve decision harder to call:
"we still lean towards a skip in October followed by a hike in December, though the upside surprise in September inflation data makes this a closer call".
Further US tightening could prolong the pressure on India's relative yields that Forrester identified.
Lower oil costs would reduce India's import bill and demand for Dollars.
Forrester's earlier assessment said: "Our oil analyst forecasts Brent to average USD95/bl in the coming six months as the US and Iran continue their "cold war" via economic blockades. Such an outcome would be modestly positive for the INR."
Forrester added: "We will be reassessing these longer-term forecasts for the exchange rate after the US midterm elections."
What This Means for USD/INR
Dollar holders would receive more Rupees at Crédit Agricole's December forecast than at Thursday's rate. The projected recovery next year would reverse that benefit, making Dollar purchases cheaper for Rupee holders.
Further RBI increases would be consistent with that outlook, but would not establish that the exchange rate is heading towards 92. The bank's own analysis places substantial weight on overseas yields and energy costs.
The Fed's 28 October decision provides the next test of the US interest-rate assumption.
USD/JPY is at a familiar support level of 156.68, so right up front, this isn't necessarily a doom-and-gloom scenario. Although given the backdrop and the context, there is some investigation in the other side of the argument that's warranted.
Silver price sinks over 5% on Thursday as investors seeking yield bought US Treasuries. Although this tumbled US Treasury yields, the white metal failed to gain traction due to rising energy prices and a strong US Dollar. The XAG/USD trades at $54.85.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical OutlookPrice action shows that the downtrend resumed after Silver breached the October 15 daily low of $55.38, exposing the next support level, the psychological $55.00 mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is bearish and approaches oversold territory, an indication that further downside is expected.
If XAG/USD surpasses $54.50, the next stop is $50.00. Below, the next area of demand is the November 21, 2025 swing low of $48.64, before the precious metal challenges the October 28, 2025 swing low of $45.56.
For a bullish reversal, Silver must climb above $55.00. Once hurdled, the next stop is the day’s high at $58.02, followed by the $60.00 milestone.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver daily chart
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Gold (XAU/USD) collapses over 2% on Thursday as investors flee to the safety of US Treasuries amid falling yields and US equities. Concerns over technology companies' credit risks are mounting as investors seek evidence that massive AI investments will deliver returns.
British Pound Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Short-Term Trade Levels
GBP/USD has rallied more than 2% from the October low, reaching its highest levels in over five weeks.
A bullish outside-week reversal fueled a break above the monthly opening range, strengthening the near-term recovery.
The advance is now confronting a major technical resistance confluence, with the 200-day moving average posing the next significant hurdle.
Failure to clear resistance would leave Sterling vulnerable, with the October lows remaining critical to the broader outlook.
U.K. and U.S. PMI releases headline near-term event risk ahead of next week's highly anticipated Fed decision.
Resistance 1.3406, ~1.3433, 1.3465/74 (key) - Support 1.3353, 1.3302 (key), 1.3245
Sterling has regained its footing following last month's sharp decline, with the latest advance marking a meaningful shift in the near-term technical picture. GBP/USD has rallied in five of the past six sessions, with bulls now confronting a pivotal resistance hurdle that could determine whether the recovery has further to run. Attention turns to Friday's preliminary U.K. and U.S. PMI releases before next week's Federal Reserve decision, with the reaction in Treasury yields and the dollar likely to play an important role in shaping GBP/USD direction into month-end. Battle lines drawn on the GBP/USD short-term technical charts.
Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Sterling technical setup and more. Join live on Monday’s at 8:30am EST.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD Daily
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Technical Outlook: In last month’s British Pound Short-term Outlook we noted that GBP/USD had, “declined in four of the past five weeks, with the latest selloff driving Sterling below the 200-day moving average for the first time since July... From a trading standpoint, rallies would need to be limited to 1.3408 IF price is heading lower on this stretch with a close below 1.3302 needed to fuel the next major leg of the decline.” Sterling broke lower the following day, extending its decline to nearly 3.2% from the September high before rebounding last week from key support at 1.3140—a level defined by the May and August 2025 lows and the June 2026 low.
An outside weekly reversal last week has broken through the monthly opening range highs with the advance extended more than 2.1% off the yearly low. The rally is now testing resistance for a third consecutive day at the 50% retracement of the August decline near 1.3406 and the focus is on possible inflection off this level into the close of the week.
British Pound Price Chart – GBP/USD 240min
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Sr. Technical Strategist; GBP/USD on TradingView
Notes: A closer look at Sterling price action shows GBP/USD trading within the confines of an ascending pitchfork extending off the October lows. Initial support rests at the 23.6% retracement of the monthly advance at 1.3353 which converges on the median line today. Subsequent support rests at the May low at 1.3302 with a break / daily close below the 61.8% retracement at 1.3245 needed to put the bears back in control.
The 200-day moving average now converges on the 75% parallel near ~1.3433 and a break / close above this slope is needed to fuel the next leg of the rally towards a key pivot zone at the February low-day close (LDC) and the 2026 yearly open at 1.3465/73- look for a larger reaction there IF reached. Subsequent resistance is eyed at the July high at 1.3558.
Bottom line: GBP/USD has rebounded sharply off major technical support with the rally now extending to the highest levels in more than five-weeks. From a trading standpoint, losses should be limited to 1.3353 IF price is heading higher on this stretch with a close above the 200-day moving average needed to fuel the next leg of the uptrend.
GBP/USD event risk into the weekly close centers on Friday’s preliminary U.K. and U.S. PMIs, but attention will increasingly shift toward next Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision. A November Bank of England hike is already largely priced following this week’s stronger employment and inflation data, leaving limited room for further sterling gains from BoE expectations alone. The U.K. Budget is also due next Wednesday, but the Fed will likely remain the primary catalyst, with markets focused on whether Kevin Warsh signals that persistent inflation warrants further tightening or endorses a pause. Stay nimble into the release and watch the weekly closes for guidance. Review my latest British Pound Weekly Forecast for a closer look at the longer-term GBP/USD technical trade levels.
Key GBP/USD Economic Data Releases
Active Short-term Technical Charts
Euro Short-term Outlook: EUR/USD Rebound Faces Critical Test After Trend Break
Gold Price Short-term Outlook: XAU/USD Holds Critical Support as Breakout Nears
Canadian Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD/CAD Five-Week Rally Hits a Wall at Major Resistance
Japanese Yen Short-term Outlook: USD/JPY Breakout Risk Builds Below 200-Day Average
Australian Dollar Short-term Outlook: AUD/USD Rebound Challenges September Downtrend
US Dollar Short-term Outlook: USD Four-Week Rally Stalls Below Key Resistance
Swiss Franc Short-term Outlook: USD/CHF Rebound Tests Broken Uptrend
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Trading conditions continue to be challenging for silver in the short term. The precious metal has been losing value at an accelerated pace and, during today's session alone, has fallen more than 5.5%, reaching new lows for 2026. This development highlights how selling pressure has become increasingly dominant across recent market activity.
For now, this weakness appears to be driven mainly by a lack of confidence in demand and by silver's inability to establish itself as an attractive alternative to other markets. Although some competing assets, such as bonds, have begun to lose part of their appeal, silver has failed to attract capital flows in a consistent manner. At the same time, inflation expectations and the view that interest rates may remain higher for longer continue to favor other asset classes, reducing the appeal of the precious metal. As long as this rotation of capital toward alternative markets persists, selling pressure on XAG/USD could remain relevant in the sessions ahead.
Is Confidence in the Silver Market Beginning to Fade?
One of the most important developments in recent sessions has been the behavior of the U.S. bond market. A few weeks ago, it was evident that rising 10-year Treasury yields were accompanied by weaker demand for silver. As the attractiveness of these instruments increased, precious metals found it increasingly difficult to attract capital flows.
However, this relationship has started to change. U.S. Treasury yields have entered a meaningful moderation phase and are now trading below the 5.0% area, moving away from the highs recorded earlier this year. What is particularly interesting is that, despite this loss of relative attractiveness within the bond market, silver has failed to respond positively and has instead continued to deepen its decline.
This situation may point to two different scenarios. First, capital flows could be shifting toward other markets currently perceived as more attractive. Second, lower yields may also reflect stronger demand for bonds themselves, since bond yields tend to decline when bond prices rise. Both scenarios lead to the same conclusion: silver is struggling to establish itself as a relevant safe-haven alternative, even as the bond market loses part of its appeal.
Source: TradingEconomics
Another important factor involves the growing relevance of inflation-related risks. Part of this concern stems from the oil market, where WTI crude oil continues to trade near the $100 per barrel area, reinforcing concerns that energy costs may remain elevated.
What stands out is that silver is not benefiting from this environment. Traditionally, higher inflation risks could be expected to support some precious metals. However, the current market reaction is different. While silver continues to lose ground, assets such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average remain resilient and continue to trade above the 52,000-point level.
This suggests that a portion of capital flows is finding greater appeal in other market segments. In addition, silver faces an extra challenge due to its significant industrial component. Expectations of persistently higher inflation could also raise concerns about a potential slowdown in industrial demand over the coming months, creating an additional headwind for the metal.
Source: TradingEconomics
Taking all of this into account, the weakness currently observed in silver appears to be the result of several factors that have increased the attractiveness of alternative markets. The metal has struggled to regain credibility both as a safe-haven asset and as a compelling risk alternative, even while some competing markets have started to lose momentum. As a result, capital flows continue to favor other assets viewed as more attractive in the current environment. Unless silver manages to rebuild investor confidence, selling pressure could remain a dominant feature of XAG/USD in the sessions ahead.
Silver Technical Forecast
Source: StoneX, Tradingview
The bearish trendline continues to gain relevance: Since the beginning of 2026, silver has developed a relatively consistent bearish structure that allowed the formation of an important long-term downward trendline. The recent acceleration of losses has reinforced this structure even further and, as long as sellers remain in control, the broader downtrend is likely to remain the dominant technical reference over the coming weeks. However, the speed of the decline is becoming increasingly pronounced, which could also create room for short-term bullish corrections.
TRIX: The TRIX indicator continues to trade below the 0 neutral level, reflecting persistent bearish momentum in long-term exponential moving averages. As long as this dynamic remains in place, the bearish bias could continue to dominate the broader market outlook.
RSI: The RSI presents a similar picture, remaining below the 50 neutral zone. However, the indicator is also moving closer to the 30 oversold level, a development that may indicate an excessive buildup of recent selling pressure and could open the door to short-term corrective rebounds.
Key Levels to Watch:
$62 – Key Resistance: This level aligns with the long-term bearish trendline and the 50-period simple moving average. Sustained moves above this area could challenge the dominant bearish structure and support a more neutral market environment.
$58 – Near-Term Barrier: An important retracement zone observed in recent weeks that could become the primary level to monitor in the event of short-term bullish corrections.
$54 – Critical Support: A support area not seen since November 2025 that now stands as the most important downside barrier on the chart. A sustained break below this level could significantly reinforce bearish control and support a further extension of the prevailing downtrend over the coming weeks.
Written by Julian Pineda, CFA, CMT – Market Analyst
Key Points:Gold is losing ground as traders react to the sell-off in U.S. equity markets. Silver pulled back towards the $55.00 level as gold/silver ratio climbed above 73.50.Platinum declined towards the $1550 level amid broad pullback in precious metals markets.
Gold Retreats As Traders Worry That AI Spending Will Boost Inflation
Gold 221026 Daily Chart Gold is losing ground as traders react to developments in U.S. equity markets. The tech-heavy NASDAQ index is down by -2.5% as Meta announced that it would boost spending plans.
Rising spending from AI leaders will likely lead to higher inflation and higher interest rates, which is bearish for gold markets. In addition, some traders may need additional liquidity at a time of a strong pullback in the equity markets. They could be forced to raise money elsewhere, which puts pressure on gold markets.
Treasury yields pulled back as bond traders rushed to buy U.S. bonds amid sell-off in U.S. equity markets. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined towards the 4.65% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries pulled back towards 4.97%. Falling Treasury yields did not provide any support to gold markets in today’s trading session as gold traders focused on AI spending.
Oil prices tested new highs as oil traders focused on the potential restart of the military operation against Iran. The U.S. ordered some diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia amid rising tensions in the Middle East. I’d note that diplomats often leave ahead of military action, so it’s not surprising to see that traders rushed to buy oil futures. Higher oil prices are bearish for gold as they would push inflation higher and force central banks to be more hawkish.
Gold is heading towards the support level, which is located in the $4000 – $4020 range. In case gold manages to settle below the $4000 level, it will head towards the next support at $3890 – $3910. RSI remains in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in case the right catalysts emerge.
Silver Dives As Gold/Silver Ratio Jumps To 73.50
Silver 221026 Daily Chart Silver is under strong pressure as gold/silver ratio climbed above the 73.50 level. Gold/silver ratio is moving higher as demand for riskier assets declines. In case gold/silver ratio stays above 73.50, it will head towards the 75.00 level, which will be bearish for silver.
Silver pulled back below the support level at $56.00 – $57.00 and is trying to settle below the $55.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, silver will head towards the next support, which is located in the $51.00 – $52.00 range.
On the upside, silver needs to settle back above the $57.00 level to have a chance to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, silver will head towards the psychologically important $60.00 level.
Gold Price Forecast
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Platinum Tests New Lows
Platinum 221026 Daily Chart Platinum is moving lower amid broad pullback in precious metals markets. Palladium markets are down by -3.1%, which is bearish for platinum.
The nearest support level for platinum is located in the $1520 – $1540 range. In case platinum manages to settle below the $1520 level, it will head towards the next support level at $1440 – $1460.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold and silver, please visit our educational area.
Vladimir is an independent trader, with over 18 years of experience in the financial markets. His expertise spans a wide range of instruments like stocks, futures, forex, indices, and commodities, forecasting both long-term and short-term market movements.
There’s not a lot of bullishness in the silver market right now.
After surging to just over $120 per ounce in January, silver corrected and has lost more than half its value.
Given the metal's trajectory over the last 10 months, bearishness is understandable. But as technical analyst Jesse Colombo pointed out in a recent Substack article, many investors delivering silver’s last rites today only started paying attention as silver neared that $120 peak.
“They piled in near the very top, just weeks or even days before silver peaked at $121, only to lose interest when it corrected, as all overheated assets eventually do. Then they simply moved on to what they believe is the latest and greatest hot asset, whether it’s an overvalued and overhyped AI stock, a new cryptocurrency, or whatever else the lemmings are currently piling into.”
Colombo believes these investors have completely missed the big picture.
“Naturally, most of those same investors had practically no interest in silver when I foresaw the bull market beginning in early 2024, when it was still trading in the $20s. Now that silver has cooled off, they are once again nowhere to be found.”
And Colombo thinks they are about to miss out on “the next powerful leg of this bull market.”
“This is the time to be paying close attention and accumulating while it is still quite cheap. The next move is going to take most investors by surprise, and they will only want to pile back in once silver is overheated again and all over the news.”
A cup of SilverColombo said he has been following a “silver bull market roadmap” for the past couple of years. That roadmap is a massive cup-and-handle pattern that's been forming since the 1960s.
A cup-and-handle pattern is an extremely bullish technical indicator.
As Colombo noted, this decades-in-the-making pattern “projects the metal reaching hundreds of dollars per ounce following a breakout.”
That breakout occurred when silver finally surged through $50 last October.
That $50 level served as a firm resistance level for decades. Silver hit that level twice: the first time in the 1980s, and then again nearly two years after the Great Recession. Colombo said that now that silver broke this resistance, history tells us silver is poised for a massive run higher.
“Although silver has since cooled off, the breakout remains very much valid and in play, and I see the next powerful leg higher beginning soon once this necessary cooling-off period is complete.”
After the breakout, Colombo warned that silver was due for a “healthy cooling-off period,” but it would not mark the end of the bull market.
“I continue to stand by that view today.”
Colombo noted that the “relative strength index (RSI)” tracks sentiment in the silver market. The RSI clearly shows that silver became extremely overheated and overbought in late 2025 and early 2026.
Today, the RSI has moderated, revealing that silver is closer to oversold. Colombo said this indicates, “the worst of the correction is behind us and that anyone calling for a sharp crash from here has the odds stacked against them.”
Colombo noted that silver has held the $50 support level throughout the correction.
“This means silver’s breakout remains fully intact and in play as long as it continues to hold above $50, which has now become a key support level.”
Colombo pointed out that silver appears to be forming a “double bottom.” We might see a final flush that pushes silver below $50 before it ultimately bottoms and then off on the next leg higher. But he said this isn’t his “base-case expectation.”
“There is no hard-and-fast rule that says silver must precisely touch the $50 support level before its correction can come to an end.”
The gold-silver ratio is another key technical indicator for silver. This ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy an ounce of gold at the current spot price. For instance, a ratio of 70-1 means it takes 70 ounces of silver to buy an ounce of gold.
In the modern era, the gold-silver ratio has averaged between 40-1 and 60-1. When it rises far above that level, it tends to snap back to the mean as silver prices rise and close the gap.
Colombo notes that the gold-silver ratio is currently in a triangle pattern, a common occurrence when asset prices pause and consolidate.
“In technical analysis, triangle patterns often act as continuation patterns, meaning that once the necessary consolidation or cooling-off period has run its course, the original trend resumes in the same direction, setting the stage for a repeat of the prior move.”
Colombo said that when this pattern breaks down, he expects it will kick off the next phase of the bull market. At that point, silver will likely surge back to its record high of $121 and beyond.
Finally, Colombo said that the fact we never saw true silver mania grip the market supports his belief that this is a short-term correction, not a top and a pending multi-year bear market. He noted that iShares Silver Trust reported a “lukewarm” 30 million ounce increase in silver holdings even as the price increased sixfold.
“That kind of lukewarm interest from American investors is simply not what you would expect to see during a true bubble mania immediately before a violent collapse and years of declining prices. My bet, however, is that the real mania still lies ahead of us and will begin to unfold once silver surpasses its January peak of $121, ultimately taking the metal into the hundreds of dollars per ounce.”
Colombo also noted that American Silver Eagle sales “fell off a cliff” during those years.
“To me, this is further confirmation that silver’s long-term bull market did not end in January 2026. There simply was not enough mainstream investor participation to mark a true secular peak.”
Colombo concludes, asserting that “mainstream investors are notoriously fickle, and that seems to be especially true when it comes to silver.”
“They tend to take an interest only after silver is already posting explosive gains, pile in too late just before a correction, and then blame silver when they lose money, claiming that it is a bad investment. The reality is that the problem is not silver or silver miners, but their own poor timing and investing behavior.”
Colombo said that this correction presents a buying opportunity.
“The time to pay close attention and accumulate is when silver seems boring, and investors are giving up on it, because that is when it is setting up for its next leg higher. I sincerely believe that is where we are today. The 2026 correction has tested investors’ patience, but those who stayed the course will be richly rewarded when silver’s next powerful leg higher begins.”
EUR/USD 221026 4h Chart EUR/USD moved lower as traders focused on the Euro Area Consumer Confidence report and reacted to the continuation of the sell-off in French debt markets.
Euro Area Consumer Confidence declined from -16.8 in September to -17 in October, compared to analyst forecast of -17.
The yield of French 10-year bonds tested the 5.14% level as traders worried that the country would fail to contain protests.
If EUR/USD settles below the 50 MA at 1.1208, it will get to the test of the support level at 1.1175 – 1.1190. A move below the 1.1175 level will push EUR/USD towards the next support level, which is located in the 1.1100 – 1.1115 range. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain momentum in the near term.
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GBP/USD Attempts To Settle Above 1.3400
USD/JPY 221026 4h Chart USD/JPY moved lower as traders focused on the strong pullback in Treasury yields. The yield of 2-year Treasuries declined below the 4.70% level, while the yield of 10-year Treasuries settled below the psychologically important 5.00% level. Treasury yields moved lower as demand for U.S. bonds increaseed amid sell-off in U.S. equity markets.
Currently, USD/JPY is trying to settle below the 157.00 level. In case this attempt is successful, USD/JPY will head towards the next support, which is located in the 155.00 – 155.50 range.
On the upside, USD/JPY needs to settle above the resistance at 158.00 – 158.50 to gain upside momentum in the near term. In this case, USD/JPY will move towards the 160.00 level.
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Worries continue to show in French government bonds and the volatility hasn't yet quieted down in related markets. This has led to a stern sell-off in the single currency since early September, and more than six weeks later, there still hasn't shown much for recovery.
Gold fell to two-week low on Thursday on repeated attempt through $4100 support, as oil prices climb further on signals of escalation of the conflict in the Middle East.
Rising inflation (the latest US data showed that CPI & PPI remain in an upward trajectory, implying that the Fed would keep interest rates elevated for extended period) will continue to support dollar.
The Fed meets next week, with wide expectations for a hawkish hold scenario on Oct 28 policy meeting, while release of US September PCE Price Index (Fed’s preferred gauge for underlying inflation) on Oct 29, expected to contribute to the central bank’s monetary policy direction.
Another violation of $4100 pivot firms negative near-term structure, with eventual close below this level to confirm strong bearish signal for attack at key $4000 support zone (including spike lows at $3942 and $3960).
Broken $4100 level reverted to initial resistance, followed by broken Fibo at $4120 and falling 20DMA ($4152) which tracks the downtrend since early September and marks the first upper breakpoint.
Res: 4100; 4120; 4152; 4190
Sup: 4021; 4000; 3960; 3942
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Gold price support is under pressure as gold heads for a seventh weekly loss in nine, and a weekly close below the zone would confirm the break. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through gold's weekly, daily, and intraday charts and the technical zones that define the trend.
Mint sales and Indian fund buying came to roughly 3.6 to 3.8 million ounces of silver in September on my count, and that is good news for silver: it is the buying the shortfall forecast needs to see arrive.
EUR/USD loses 0.33% on Thursday, reversing earlier gains as the US Dollar (USD) stages a rebound after slipping to a three-week low during Asian trading hours. Meanwhile, political turmoil in France and uncertainty surrounding the country's fiscal outlook continue to weigh on the Euro (EUR).
The U.S. dollar is under pressure, approaching a support area we've been watching for several sessions.
Normally, that might encourage expectations of strength in gold, but gold has its own story to tell. Instead of launching a convincing recovery, sellers have pushed prices within a few points of a downside objective we identified last week. Meanwhile, an important weekly bullish gap is facing another serious test.
It's a reminder that a favorable relationship between markets is not the same thing as a confirmed trading signal.
This morning, both charts offer important technical information - and both still have unanswered questions.
US Dollar (DX.F) - Relief lasted one session
Wednesday gave dollar bulls a modest victory: the daily close invalidated the previous breakdown below June's high. But it did not restore the orange consolidation at 101.67-102.27, and the confirmed invalidation of the weekly rising-wedge breakout remained intact.
Thursday began with a fresh bearish gap at 101.51-101.60. Sellers pushed the index back beneath the June and July reference highs intraday, reaching 101.27 before a modest rebound. They came within 0.01 of the upper boundary of our anticipated support cluster but have not entered that cluster yet.
The next area to monitor is 101.11-101.26, built from the bullish gaps of September 30 and October 1. Just beneath it, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement around 101.10 meets the orange consolidation's measured downside projection near 101.07.
This is the confluence highlighted in yesterday’s Free Lab Note, not a promise of an exact turning point.
The new bearish gap remains open at the time of writing. As long as DX.F stays below it, the former highs and 101.67, sellers retain the stronger technical argument.
A recovery above those barriers would weaken the immediate bearish case. Only today's close can establish whether the renewed breakdown below the highs is confirmed.
Daily Takeaways
Bearish pressure: new gap at 101.51-101.60; intraday low at 101.27.Support: 101.11-101.26, followed by the 101.10-101.07 confluence.Confirmation: watch whether the daily close recovers the June-July area.Bottom Line: Wednesday's rescue did not repair the broader damage. Sellers are already testing how much of it can be undone.
Gold (GC.F) – A target almost reached, a weekly gap on trial
Gold's inability to capitalize on a falling dollar has become more than an interesting divergence in behavior.
Sellers have now carried prices almost to the 4080 downside objective identified after the orange consolidation broke in Free Lab Note posted on Oct.14, 2026.
Thursday's low: 4082.35.
The target has been approached, not technically reached.
That decline also swept through the entire 4098-4135 weekly bullish gap intraday. Price was around 4101.87 at the chart snapshot, making the battle for its lower boundary especially visible (an intraday passage below 4098 cannot, by itself, establish a confirmed weekly gap closure because that requires a weekly close below 4098). The daily 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near 4113.74 lies within the same zone, but it has not prevented the latest selloff. Stochastic has generated a sell signal, while CCI and RSI remain weak.
If buyers cannot defend the weekly gap into Friday, the next technical support combination is 4036-4060: the July 30 bullish gap and the upper boundary of the red falling wedge, currently around 4050.
Those are conditional levels, not a forecast that they must be reached.
Even a rebound would have work to do. 4156 is the nearby level to reclaim; 4233 and especially 4240-4250 remain the real test of bullish strength.
Daily takeawaysBearish objective: 4080 nearly reached.Critical support: weekly gap 4098-4135 breached intraday, not confirmed closed.Next risk: 4036-4060 if the weekly defense fails.Bottom Line: A weak dollar has not rescued gold. The weekly closing price now matters more than another hopeful intraday bounce.
And what about the other Metals?Gold isn't the only metal experiencing selling pressure.
Silver is testing an important support combination following repeated failures to reclaim its broken declining channel. Platinum's four consecutive bullish opening gaps have given way to a powerful bearish counterattack. Palladium has reached two previously discussed downside objectives, while copper has completed the minimum measured decline from its recent consolidation.
