BNY Mellon’s Geoff Yu notes Gold has surged through $4,500/oz. as investors reassess U.S. Treasury buybacks and their inflation implications. The report argues the intervention has calmed bond markets but may shift pressure into alternative stores of value like Gold and Bitcoin. Structural fiscal doubts and potential conflict with Federal Reserve objectives underpin the metal’s strength.
Treasury actions feed Gold demand"One of the reasons the relief rally from the U.S. Treasury buyback announcement could be brief, is that short utilization wasn’t high in the first place in the long end. Our data confirm that. Investors took profit on long-end protection and didn’t rebuild it as the curve steepened."
"The subsequent rally therefore can’t be explained solely by cash-Treasury short covering; crowded steepener exposure is more likely concentrated in curve and derivative positions."
"Bond markets have calmed, which is meaningful, but the next test is whether managing the yield curve begins to conflict with monetary-policy objectives. If Treasury actions loosen conditions while inflation remains above target, the Fed may eventually need to offset some of that impulse. Gold pushing through $4,500/oz. and Bitcoin briefly touching $70,000 suggest markets don’t view the move as costless."
"Some of the adjustment may simply be migrating away from bond yields and into alternative stores of value."
"Although the U.S. actions have bought time and provided relief, official-sector intervention can only go so far and may prove counterproductive over time. Fiscal restraint remains structurally elusive globally, leaving inflation with a near-permanent fiscal markup."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot Gold is edging lower on Thursday after failing to follow through to the upside following yesterday’s high at $4524.34. The 200-day moving average at $4511.57 is also a factor preventing the continuation of the rally.
The main range by my calculations is $3886.46 to $5602.23. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $4744.34 to $4541.88. Once the market overcomes the 200-day MA with conviction, the first upside target is this zone.
Today’s weakness has also put the market back under $4481.78 and back into bear market territory.
The nearest support is a minor 50% level at $4416.82. Spot gold spent about two weeks testing this level prior to Wednesday’s rally. It may prove to be strong support if tested today. If it fails, then we could see a test of the swing bottom at $4311.04. Momentum could shift back to the downside if this level doesn’t hold as support.
While the 200-day MA is acting like resistance, the 50-day moving average at $4163.69 is starting to hook up, which could develop into a strong near-term bullish signal.
What to Watch Wednesday’s Treasury rally lost momentum overnight and yields found buyers again. The FOMC minutes added selling pressure by putting another rate increase back into the discussion. Crude above $93 is keeping the inflation risk alive and giving the Fed a reason to stay cautious regardless of what the growth data shows. Gold needs yields to resume their decline and the dollar to stay soft. Thursday has one of those conditions and not the other.
The metal failed just short of the 200-day moving average at $4511.57 and dropped back under the bear market threshold at $4481.78. The two-week support at $4416.82 is the first level where buyers showed up before Wednesday’s rally. Below that, the swing bottom at $4311.04 is where the trend changes. The 50-day is starting to hook higher, which is a signal the bulls want to see develop. The 200-day overhead remains the line that separates the current range from a move that draws institutional money back into gold.
If you’d like to know more about how to trade gold, please visit our educational area.
EURUSD extends steep ascend into second consecutive day and trading at three-month high on Thursday.
Bulls hold grip after Wednesday’s 0.85% advance (the biggest daily gain since March 19), after generating bullish signals on break above 200DMA (1.1628) and Fibo 61.8% of 1.1849/1.1324 (1.1648) and probe through round-figure barrier at 1.1700.
Dips on partial profit-taking are likely to be limited (ideally to be contained by broken Fibo 61.8% (1.1648) to keep bulls intact and provide better levels to re-enter bullish market for extension towards 1.1725 (Fibo 76.4%) and 1.1800 zone (early May lower platform).
Daily studies are firmly bullish but overbought that contributes to scenario of limited pullback ahead of fresh push higher.
Caution on dips below 200DMA that may weaken near-term structure.
The information contained in this document was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed herein are in good faith, but are subject to change without notice. No liability accepted whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this document.
The Australian Dollar fell immediately after a weak employment report before recovering as broader US Dollar softness limited the damage to AUD/USD. The Australian Dollar came under pressure after Australia's July labour-market report showed an unexpected fall in employment and unemployment at its highest level in almost five years.
Employment dropped by 15,800 against expectations for a gain of around 15,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.5%.
Image: AUD crosses today Australian jobs data The Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUD/USD) exchange rate fell towards 0.7111 immediately after the release before recovering to around 0.7126 later in the morning.
At that later level, the pair was marginally higher on the day, underlining the importance of distinguishing the initial Australian data reaction from subsequent US Dollar weakness.
Jobs Data Eases Pressure on RBA Full-time employment still increased by 16,300, but participation slipped to 66.9% and total hours worked fell 0.6%.
The softer headline reduces pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to tighten policy again quickly.
Westpac economist Ryan Wells had already highlighted “the rising trend in unemployment and underemployment” as evidence that labour-market slack was building.
Oxford Economics Australia chief economist Ben Udy said the July figures were slightly weaker than the RBA had expected and, alongside slower wage growth, reduced near-term pressure for another increase.
Markets remain divided over whether the RBA will need another increase later this year, particularly with inflation still uncomfortable.
Image: AUD/USD intraday chart For the AUD/USD exchange rate, the immediate support zone sits around 0.7100, while the August high near 0.7129 is the first upside test.
A renewed break below 0.7100 would suggest the labour-market disappointment is beginning to dominate the broader Dollar story.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Silver price hit a two-month high above $67 after the US Treasury's larger bond-buyback plan revived precious-metals demand, before profit-taking emerged. Silver prices pushed to their highest level in two months on Thursday after Wednesday's powerful rally carried XAG/USD through the mid-$60s.
Image: XAG/USD chart over the last 48 hours The Silver to US Dollar (XAG/USD) price reached $67.11 before easing to around $66.66, leaving it 0.46% lower on the day but still 3.20% higher over five sessions.
The metal has gained more than 18% over the past month.
Silver Breakout Meets Profit-Taking Image: Silver price over the course of 2026 The latest move was triggered by the US Treasury's decision to at least double some bond-buyback operations at the long end of the curve.
That announcement pulled Treasury yields and the Dollar lower on Wednesday, providing a sharp boost to non-yielding assets and helping silver outperform gold.
TD Securities' Gennadiy Goldberg described the Treasury move as “the first of many possible actions” available to support the long end.
The rally has since encountered profit-taking as hawkish elements in the Federal Reserve minutes reminded investors that another rate increase has not been ruled out.
For silver, the technical picture has nevertheless improved substantially.
A sustained break above $67.10 would put $70 back in focus, while the $64-$65 area should now offer the first meaningful support after the latest breakout.
Failure to hold above $62.50 would weaken the recovery signal, but with XAG/USD still sharply higher over one month, momentum remains more constructive than it was in July.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Chang Wei Liang at DBS Group Research highlights that EUR/USD has rallied toward 1.17, with the Euro the main beneficiary of Dollar softness. July Eurozone CPI matched expectations for both headline and core, reinforcing market conviction in a European Central Bank rate hike in September, with around 26 basis points priced and a very high implied probability.
Eurozone inflation supports ecb pricing"EUR/USD rallied towards 1.17, with EUR being the prime beneficiary of USD weakness."
"Eurozone’s July CPI came in line with expectations yesterday, with both headline and core inflation matched consensus of 2.9% y/y and 2.5% y/y respectively."
"This has entrenched expectations of an ECB rate hike for Sep, with markets pricing in a 26bps hike with over 90% probability."
"On the other hand, the Fed’s next rate move is less clear given recent economic data softness, and upcoming mid-term elections in November."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
Gold (XAU/USD) bulls take a breather on Thursday following the sharp rally on the previous day, triggered by a steep pullback in long-term US Treasury yields. At the time of writing, XAU/USD trades around $4,488, easing from an intraday high of $4,527, its highest level since June 2.
The precious metal climbed over 4% on Wednesday after the US Treasury Department announced that it would increase its liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated government securities. In reaction, the 30-year Treasury yield fell around 9 basis points (bps) to 5.18%, while the benchmark 10-year yield dropped about 5 bps to 4.63%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback's value against a basket of six major currencies, fell below 99.00 on Wednesday, touching a three-month low and continues to lose ground on Thursday. The combination of a weaker US Dollar and falling yields increased the appeal of non-yielding Gold, lifting the metal to its highest level in more than two months.
The Treasury’s move provided some relief to the bond market after the 30-year yield climbed above 5.30% earlier this week, its highest level since 2007. However, both the 10-year and 30-year yields are up around 3 basis points on Thursday. The buybacks may ease pressure in the short term, but they do not address large fiscal deficits, heavy debt issuance or persistent inflation risks, analysts warn.
Higher energy prices add to inflation risks as the standoff between the US and Iran keeps shipping through the Strait of Hormuz heavily restricted. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil trades around $86.25 per barrel, up roughly 6% so far this week.
US President Donald Trump announced tougher economic action against Iran on Wednesday, warning of “economic conflict and isolation on an unprecedented scale.”
Persistent inflation was also a key concern in the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) July meeting, which were released on Wednesday. Many policymakers judged that higher interest rates would likely be needed if inflation failed to decline, while some questioned whether financial conditions were restrictive enough to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target.
Technical Analysis: XAU/USD battles the 200-day SMA
On the daily chart, XAU/USD retains a bullish near-term bias as prices hold above the 50-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $4,164 and $4,380, respectively. The metal is now fluctuating near the 200-day SMA at $4,512 after briefly climbing above it.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands near 65, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains positive, pointing to firm upside momentum.
A daily close above the 200-day SMA could open the door toward the horizontal resistance at $4,650. On the downside, the 100-day SMA at $4,380 offers initial support, followed by the 50-day SMA at $4,164 and the $4,000 psychological mark.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The euro has surged thanks to growing expectations of U.S. Fed rate cuts, declining Treasury yields, and the ECB's cautious monetary policy guidance Overbought momentum indicators, unexpectedly high U.S. inflation, or renewed Eurozone growth worries could trigger profit-taking and push rates lower Should Eurozone growth slow, the ECB might shift to an easing policy. This would eliminate the rate-differential support that's currently boosting the euro The euro’s been gaining ground on the dollar. After climbing 0.95% in July, the EUR/USD pair added another 1.5% in August. Just yesterday, it broke past the 1.1580 resistance, ending the day up 0.88%.
This upward trend points to a change in forex market sentiment. Traders watching this cross can’t help but wonder what’s fueling the euro’s rally and what obstacles might appear.
Where Is the Euro Getting Its Fuel? The euro’s climb mostly comes from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Federal Reserve’s diverging monetary policies. Eurozone inflation, as measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), hit 2.9%.
So, market participants expect an ECB interest rate hike at their September 10 meeting. Controlling inflation is the ECB’s main goal, a job made tougher by rising energy prices from Middle East geopolitical events.
Currently, markets are pricing in a 90% chance the ECB will raise rates by 25 basis points in September, pushing the rate to 2.50%. What’s more, better economic survey data from the Eurozone, like a stronger German ZEW index, hints at more stable regional conditions.
On the other hand, recent weaker U.S. economic data has lowered expectations for further Federal Reserve rate increases, signaling a weaker dollar. The July non-farm payrolls report missed forecasts, retail sales dropped, and inflation numbers came in lower than expected.
Consequently, the odds of a September Fed rate hike have fallen, with markets now giving about a 65% chance the Fed will hold rates steady.
Lower US Treasury yields are also weakening the dollar, partly because the Treasury Department announced it’ll buy more longer-term bonds starting in September.
EUR/USD Has Room to Run, But Watch the Data Technical analysis suggests the EUR/USD could climb, targeting 1.1750-1.1800. If prices hold above 1.1700, buyers might step in, driving the rate toward 1.1725 or even higher.
The short-term outlook looks good for the next few weeks, as long as support levels at 1.1600-1.1635 hold. But the quick price jump suggests the market might be getting overbought. That could mean some consolidation or small pullbacks.
Potential Setbacks Ahead A few things could slow the euro’s climb. For instance, if US inflation picks up again, or if employment and growth numbers come in stronger than expected, it might reignite expectations of Fed rate hikes. That would likely boost the dollar.
Another factor is ongoing geopolitical instability, particularly around US-Iran relations, along with high oil prices. These usually send investors to the dollar as a safe haven.
Over in Europe, weaker economic growth surveys or slowing inflation might dampen expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes. A big jump in longer-term US Treasury yields could also shrink the interest rate gap that’s been good for the euro.
What primarily drove EUR/USD higher in mid-August?
Softer US data reduced Fed hike odds while sticky euro-area inflation boosted expectations of an ECB rate increase in September.
What major risk could reverse the current EUR/USD trend?
A rebound in US economic data or escalating Middle East tensions that revive dollar demand and Fed-tightening expectations.
Could the ECB undermine the euro’s strength?
Yes. If eurozone growth weakens, the ECB could pivot toward easing, removing the rate-differential support currently favoring the euro
The Euro (EUR) extends gains against an ailing US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, as the US Treasury’s plan to boost buybacks of long-term Government Bonds sent the Greenback tumbling across the board. The EUR/USD pair trades right above 1.1700 at the time of writing after surging about 1.13% from Wednesday’s lows.
The US Treasury Department announced on Wednesday its decision to double the size of liquidity support buyback operations for longer-dated securities, to at least 4 billion per operation, from the current maximum size of $2 billion from September 9 on.
This plan is aimed at easing yields on long-term Government Bonds, under pressure this week, after data from the Treasury Department revealed that national debt rose above $40 trillion, prompting investors to demand higher compensation for holding US debt.
Analysts at MUFG affirm that the buy-back announcement, combined with the recent FIMA report comment to Japan following intervention, risks proving “counter-productive” for the US Dollar. In their view, it could lead to “reduced appetite for either holding US assets (UST bond sales) or reduced appetite for exposure to the US dollar (dollar selling) or both.”
MUFG cautions that “even if the Treasury buy-back plan does contain yields, the US dollar now remains more vulnerable to the downside on the fact that yields are potentially lower.”
The Treasury's announcement shadowed the release of the minutes of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest monetary policy meeting, which showed a hawkishly leaning tone. The central bank's policymakers highlighted the need for higher rate hikes unless inflationary pressures abate, but failed to stem the US Treasury-inflicted Dollar sell-off.
Euro FAQs The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold price (XAU/USD) is down 0.7% to near $4,490 in the European trading session on Thursday. The precious metal retreats from its 11-week high of $4,527 posted earlier in the day. The yellow metal comes under pressure as United States (US) Treasury Yields claw back some of Wednesday’s losses.
As of writing, 30-year US Treasury Yields are up 0.5% to near 5.21%. 10-year US bond yields trade 0.67% higher at around 4.67%.
Higher yields on interest-bearing assets diminish the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Gold.
Late Wednesday, US Treasury Yields were hit badly after the announcement from the US Treasury Department that it would at least double the maximum size of its liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated nominal securities, in an effort to curb a sharp increase in borrowing costs, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported.
However, financial markets, believing that higher inflation projections due to elevated oil prices and widening government debt, have staged a decent recovery in US bond yields.
Analysts at Jefferies said that the Treasury's announcement does "little to address the underlying issues pushing bonds higher, which they said include unsustainable fiscal deficits and rising inflation expectations", Reuters reported.
Gold Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,490.45, extending its advance well above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $4,299.17 and maintaining a clear bullish near-term bias. The short-term trend is supported by the distance between price and the EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 64.64 stays in positive territory but below the classic overbought threshold, hinting that upside momentum is strong yet not excessively stretched.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent closing area around $4,490, with a deeper layer of demand emerging at the 20-day EMA near $4,299, where buyers would likely defend the broader uptrend on any corrective pullback. With no nearby technical resistance levels from the current dataset, the metal’s path of least resistance remains to the upside, and only a sustained drop back toward the $4,299 region would start to weaken the prevailing bullish tone.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
Yesterday, the US Treasury announced that it will be doubling its purchasing of longer-term bonds.
That’s 4 billion dollars worth from September to November.
This drove USD even weaker.
In today’s Market Outlook, let’s take a look at Forex trading on WTI Crude Oil, Walmart, AUDUSD, USDJPY, Gold, XAUUSD, Silver, XAGUSD, and EURUSD.
In an attempt to convince investors and other central banks that bond yields aren’t getting out of control and to stop dumping US bonds, the US Treasury took action.
That, in turn, drove USD weaker, with the trend, and you will see this on every chart.
This affected gold as well.
If you saw our last video, we pointed out that analysts were looking at $4,500, and here we are.
Silver was dipping even lower, out of step with gold, and XAGUSD has also risen.
This has also helped with the economic issues with Japan, so maybe Scott Bessent won’t have to spend another $4 billion buying JPY.
Yesterday, we spotted this reversal of price at the lower trend line of AUDUSD, and the US Treasury announcement really helped with the bull run.
So, how did all this affect the stock markets?
We can see that the S&P 500 rallied, and this is normal when bond yields fall, but it seems that the bear run will continue.
Getting back to the AUD, the big move upward on AUDUSD shows just how influential USD is as yesterday’s Australian employment data was very bad, with a big miss to the downside.
As we can see in AUDNZD and AUDCHF, we will be looking for retracements on AUD pairs.
If we look at the daily chart on AUDCHF, we see that the news may be giving us our News Catalyst Fade, so we will be watching for a reversal.
And, if you are interested in trading equities, you may want to look at buying the dip on Walmart as their earnings report happens today.
And, we have a complete standstill in Iran with no peace talks going on, and Crude Oil prices are elevated and consolidating.
All we can say here is to watch the news.
That’s all for now.
CFDs and FX are leveraged products, and your capital may be at risk.
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Thursday, according to FXStreet data. Silver trades at $66.71 per troy ounce, down 0.42% from the $67.00 it cost on Wednesday.
Silver prices have decreased by 6.15% since the beginning of the year.
The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 67.33 on Thursday, down from 67.51 on Wednesday.
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Chinese Yuan received a firmer official signal after the PBOC set the USD/CNY reference rate at 6.7808, stronger than the previous 6.7854 fixing. China's central bank strengthened its daily Yuan reference rate on Thursday, setting USD/CNY exchange rate at 6.7808 compared with 6.7854 in the previous session.
The 46-pip shift continues a period in which the People's Bank of China has used the fixing to guide the currency more firmly while balancing pressure from exporters and the domestic economy.
The stronger midpoint came on the same day that China left its benchmark loan prime rates unchanged for a fifteenth consecutive month.
The one-year LPR stayed at 3.00%, while the five-year rate remained at 3.50%.
PBOC Keeps Policy Support Targeted The combination of a firmer fixing and unchanged lending rates suggests Beijing remains reluctant to deploy broad monetary easing that could undermine the currency.
Foreign exchange analysts at ING noted that the PBOC has increasingly guided daily fixes stronger and that exporters have tended to sell Dollars into USD/CNY rallies.
ING economists Deepali Bhargava and Lynn Song maintain a 6.67-6.92 forecast band for the remainder of 2026 and favour “further CNY strength heading into 2027.” Read our latest USD/CNY forecast sentiment survey for 2026, 2027 and 2028 here.
The official fixing does not guarantee the direction of USD/CNY, but it remains an important policy signal because onshore trading is permitted only within a band around the midpoint.
Further stronger-than-expected fixings would reinforce the view that authorities are comfortable with gradual Yuan appreciation, while renewed economic weakness could test that preference.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Euro paused below 1.1700 as the US Dollar steadied, but softer Fed rate expectations kept EUR/USD close to its strongest August levels. The Euro consolidated near 1.17 on Thursday as traders balanced a tentative US Dollar recovery against a sharp reduction in expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening.
The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate traded around 1.1694, up 0.18% on the day and 1.39% higher over five sessions.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.169565 (+0.19%)
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.363274 (+0.24%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.51579 (+0.16%)
The pair has gained around 2.43% over the past month and was pressing its latest August high around 1.1695.
Fed Outlook Keeps US Dollar Upside Contained The US Dollar has struggled since the US Treasury expanded long-dated bond buybacks, a move that pulled yields lower and eased pressure in the government-debt market.
Federal Reserve minutes were more hawkish, with several officials willing to consider another increase if inflation remained persistent.
Even so, current pricing implies roughly a 69% probability that rates will be left unchanged in September, compared with around a 31% chance of a hike.
ING strategists Chris Turner and Francesco Pesole remain sceptical that the Fed will tighten again in 2026, saying: “we think the Fed will try to get away with not hiking this year.”
The bank expects EUR/USD around 1.17 in three months, 1.18 in six months and 1.20 over 12 months.
For the Euro, 1.1700 is the immediate barrier.
A clean break would expose higher August levels, while a retreat below 1.1600 would suggest the Dollar's stabilisation is developing into a broader recovery.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Gold price pares gains after testing its strongest level since June as hawkish Federal Reserve minutes checked the rally sparked by lower Treasury yields. Gold prices retreated on Thursday after coming within around $20 of June's high, with traders taking profits following the previous session's surge.
The Gold to US Dollar (XAU/USD) price traded around $4,492.72, down 0.43% on the day after reaching an intraday high of $4,524.93.
Gold is still more than 3% higher over five sessions and around 12% above its level a month ago.
Fed Minutes Temper Treasury-Led Rally Wednesday's advance was driven by the US Treasury's surprise expansion of long-dated bond buybacks, which pushed yields and the Dollar lower.
Precious-metals veteran Robert Gottlieb described the combination of lower long-term yields and a weaker Dollar as “very bullish for gold.”
Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive, said the market needed “a degree of digestion” after such a large one-day move.
The Federal Reserve minutes subsequently complicated that picture.
Officials remained concerned about persistent inflation and several were prepared to consider further tightening, leaving markets with roughly a 31% probability of a September rate increase.
US-Iran tensions are also cutting both ways for bullion.
Geopolitical uncertainty supports safe-haven demand, but the resulting pressure on oil prices threatens to keep inflation and long-term interest rates elevated.
The Gold price therefore faces an important test around $4,525-$4,545, which covers Thursday's high and the June peak.
A clear break higher would strengthen the recovery, while a fall back through $4,400 would suggest the latest Treasury-driven move is losing momentum.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
United Overseas Bank’s Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann highlight that EUR/USD has broken to a three‑month high near 1.1680 as Dollar weakness and strong momentum underpin the pair. They see room for further gains toward 1.1725, though intraday moves are expected to be capped around 1.1700, with support now strengthened at 1.1635 and 1.1600 over the next few days.
Euro rally tests 1.17 ceiling"24-HOUR VIEW: Yesterday, EUR surged by 0.89% and closed at a three-month high of 1.1677. Unsurprisingly, after such a sharp rally, conditions are deeply overbought. However, strong momentum suggests that there is scope for the rally to extend. That said, any advance could stay within a 1.1635/1.1700 range. In other words, a sustained rise above 1.1700 is unlikely."
"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.1570), indicating that “the price action suggests EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias.” On Tuesday (18 Aug, spot at 1.1580), we indicated that “while the upside bias remains intact, given that there is no significant increase in upward momentum, EUR must break and hold above 1.1615 before a move to 1.1655 and beyond can be expected.” Yesterday, EUR broke above 1.1615, as it rallied sharply to 1.1679. EUR closed at a three-month high of 1.1677, up by 0.89%. Given the strong momentum, there is room for further upside in EUR toward 1.1725. We will maintain our positive EUR view as long as it stays above 1.1600 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1525)."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
We hit the sell opportunity at 4355/4365 and Gold held here for 4 hours but then the Treasury Dept announced support of longer bond prices.
Shorts were immediately stopped above 4375 and we shot higher to my longer term target of 4495/4505 (which I had talked about last week when we had the first buy signals).
In the Telegram group we bought Gold at 4450/4440 before we hit the target of 4495/4505, pocketing 500 ticks.
First support at 4485/4475 & longs need stops below 4465.
A break lower however targets better support at 4450/4440 (where we were buying in the Telegram group yesterday).
Longs need stops below 4430.
We have resistance at 4505/4515 & we are struggling here. However I think shorts are risky & I prefer to buy a break above 4525, targeting 4545/49 & 4565/4570.
Gold Eases After 4% Rally as Treasury Yields Stabilise
Gold is easing slightly after rallying 4% in the previous session to a two-month high, following a U.S. Treasury announcement aimed at supporting long-duration bonds that weakened the dollar and pulled Treasury yields lower.
The U.S. Treasury announced yesterday that it would double the size of its buyback operations for long-dated bonds, targeting maturities between 10 and 30 years.
The announcement came after a major bond sell-off at the start of the week, which saw the 30-year Treasury yield rise to a 19-year high amid concerns over inflation and the U.S. fiscal outlook. Total U.S. government debt also topped $40 trillion for the first time.
At the same time, foreign investors are scaling back their purchases of U.S. Treasuries, adding another concern for the bond market.
The Treasury announcement helped pull the U.S. dollar down to a three-month low, where it remains today.
For gold, the combination of rising concerns over U.S. debt and weaker confidence in the Treasury market is potentially bullish. If investors become increasingly concerned about the U.S. fiscal outlook, gold could benefit as an alternative store of value.
However, inflation remains a risk.
The minutes of the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed that policymakers had become more hawkish compared with the June meeting. Since then, however, inflation data has been relatively subdued and the labour market has weakened, suggesting that a rate hike is unlikely to be imminent.
The market is now pricing in a 69% probability that the Fed will leave rates unchanged in September, up considerably from 45% two weeks ago.
Whether gold can hold these levels will depend partly on where Treasury yields go from here and what Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh says at next week's Jackson Hole Symposium.
If U.S. yields rebound and the dollar recovers, gold could come under pressure again. But if yields remain contained and concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook continue to build, the backdrop remains supportive for gold.
Gold Forecast – Technical Analysis
Gold extended its breakout from the triangle pattern to a 10-week high of 4,525 before easing back towards 4,490 at the time of writing.
The price remains above its key EMAs and the RSI is above 50, keeping buyers hopeful of further gains.
Buyers will look to break above 4,525 to bring 4,765, the May high, into focus, followed by 4,890, the April peak, and then 5,000, the psychological level.
On the downside, support comes from the cluster of EMAs, with 4,325 providing immediate support. Below here, the 100 and 200 EMAs around 4,300 and the 50 EMA around 4,260 come into focus.
A break below 4,260 would open the door to 4,200, the round number, followed by 4,100, the March low.
EUR/USD Jumps Towards 1.17 as Dollar Falls to Three-Month Low
EUR/USD has rallied to its highest level since May after the U.S. Treasury stepped in to support the bond market, pulling the U.S. dollar down to a three-month low against its major peers.
The surprise announcement that the Treasury would significantly increase its bond buyback operations hit the dollar, as Treasury yields fell back from their recent highs.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell to an 11-week low near 98.70.
The weaker dollar has been the main catalyst behind the latest move higher in EUR/USD.
The euro also has some support of its own. The ECB is expected to raise interest rates at its September meeting, contrasting with the Federal Reserve, which is increasingly expected to leave rates unchanged following subdued U.S. inflation data and a weaker-than-expected non-farm payroll report.
That is despite the latest Fed minutes showing that policymakers remain concerned about inflation.
Markets are pricing in around 45 basis points of additional ECB tightening this year, with the final hike expected in September as inflation remains above the ECB's 2% target.
Oil prices above $90 a barrel strengthen the case for higher European inflation, although expensive energy also creates a problem for the Eurozone economy by putting pressure on consumers and businesses.
The bigger point, however, is that this remains largely a dollar story. That makes the latest jump in EUR/USD potentially fragile. If Treasury yields rebound or U.S. data starts to support higher Fed rate expectations again, the dollar could recover and put the recent euro gains under pressure.
EUR/USD Forecast – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has extended its recovery from the 1.1350 July low, breaking out of the falling trend channel and moving above both the 50 and 200 EMAs.
The pair has reached 1.17, while the RSI has just moved into overbought territory. This raises the possibility of some consolidation after the recent move higher.
Buyers will look to break above 1.17 to bring 1.18 into focus, a level last seen in early May.
Above here, attention turns towards 1.1850, the April high.
On the downside, support can be seen around 1.16, the round number.
A break below here would bring the moving averages into focus, with the 200 EMA around 1.1560 and the 50 EMA providing the next layer of support ahead of 1.15.
The US dollar has come under moderate pressure as long-term US Treasury yields have declined. Another factor has been the US Treasury Department’s decision to increase buyback operations for securities with maturities ranging from 10 to 30 years in an effort to support market liquidity. Against this backdrop, the 30-year Treasury yield fell by around 9 basis points to 5.19%.
The decline in yields has weakened one of the key sources of support for the dollar and has been particularly significant for USD/JPY, which remains highly sensitive to movements in the US bond market.
The recently released FOMC minutes provided a counterweight. The minutes revealed growing concerns among policymakers about inflation risks, with several officials favouring a rate hike as early as the July meeting. This kept the overall tone relatively hawkish. Although policymakers were divided over whether an immediate rate increase was necessary, inflation risks remain a central concern for the Federal Reserve, while future decisions will continue to depend on incoming economic data.
Today, markets will focus on a fresh batch of US economic figures. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index is expected to fall to 24.1 from 41.4, while initial jobless claims are forecast at 210,000. Weaker-than-expected figures could put additional pressure on the dollar, whereas resilient data may allow the currency to recover some of its recent losses.
For the Canadian dollar, commodity-price data will provide an additional catalyst. The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) is expected to decline by 1.8% following a 6.9% drop in the previous month, making the actual reading potentially important for the further direction of USD/CAD.
USD/JPY USD/JPY made several unsuccessful attempts to approach the key 160.00 resistance level before sharply retreating towards 158.00 as US Treasury yields declined.
If selling pressure on the dollar persists, the pair could move towards the 156.70–157.20 area. At the same time, a corrective rebound following yesterday’s decline could lift the pair towards 158.60–159.20.
Key events for USD/JPY:
today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index; today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims; tomorrow at 02:30 (GMT+3): Japan national core Consumer Price Index (CPI).
USD/CAD USD/CAD remains in a broader downtrend following the formation of a “tower” pattern in early July. Yesterday, sellers tested the important 1.3800 support level.
A sustained break below yesterday’s low could open the way towards 1.3730–1.3760. If 1.3800 continues to hold as support, however, the pair could stage a recovery towards 1.3840–1.3870.
Key events for USD/CAD:
today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI); today at 17:00 (GMT+3): US Leading Economic Indicators; tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian core retail sales.
Outlook USD/JPY and USD/CAD remain caught between opposing fundamental forces. Falling Treasury yields are weighing on the dollar, while the relatively hawkish tone of the FOMC minutes is limiting the scope for a deeper decline.
The market’s attention is now turning to the latest US economic data. Weaker figures could extend the dollar’s correction and increase downside pressure on USD/JPY and USD/CAD, while stronger-than-expected releases could restore support for the US currency and trigger a recovery in both pairs.
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GBP/USD surged to 1.3613 on Wednesday, reaching a three-month high. Investors are digesting fresh UK inflation and labour market data.
Consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June and in line with forecasts. Core inflation held steady at 2.6%. Following the release, markets slightly scaled back expectations of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end.
Earlier labour market data showed unemployment holding at 4.9%, above expectations, while the number of payrolled employees fell by 86,000 year-on-year. Meanwhile, growth in regular pay remained fairly stable at 3.5%.
Additional support for the pound is coming from a weaker dollar. Soft US economic data have led investors to reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time, elevated oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran conflict continue to pose inflation risks for the UK.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, a wide consolidation range is forming around the 1.3523 level. The market has moved towards its upper boundary. A new compact consolidation range is expected to form below 1.3631. A downside breakout from this range would open the way for a move lower towards 1.3500. The MACD supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3607 level, currently extending between 1.3588 and 1.3618. A move lower towards 1.3572 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.3600. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
Conclusion GBP/USD has climbed to a three-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and UK economic data that largely met expectations. Inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, while core inflation held steady, prompting markets to slightly lower BoE rate hike expectations. Labour market data showed unemployment above forecasts and a decline in payroll employment, though wage growth remained stable. The dollar remains under pressure from soft US data, which has reduced Fed tightening expectations. However, elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pose inflation risks for the UK. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 1.3572, with potential for a further decline to 1.3500. The near-term direction will depend on upcoming economic releases and central bank signals.
Disclaimer
Any forecasts contained herein are based on the author’s particular opinion. This analysis may not be treated as trading advice. RoboForex bears no responsibility for trading results based on trading recommendations and reviews contained herein.
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Key takeaways Gold surges: XAU/USD jumped 4.35% on 19 August, its biggest one-day gain since February, lifting its August gain to 10.7%. USD debasement drives gold: Treasury bond buybacks have fuelled fiscal-dominance concerns, shifting focus from yields to US dollar purchasing-power risk. $4,405 is pivotal: Holding above $4,434/$4,405 keeps the bullish sequence intact, with a break above $4,504 exposing $4,580 and $4,640. Gold (XAU/US) has been on a tear to the upside since the start of August 2026. The precious yellow metal has staged a 10% rally from the potential major swing low of $3,942, printed on 30 June 2026, to Tuesday, 18 August 2026’s closing level of $4,335.
On Wednesday, 19 August 2026, it added a daily gain of 4.35% to close at US$4,523, its largest single-day rally since February 2026.
Overall, spot gold (quoted by the London Bullion Market Association) has now transitioned from a prior underperformer (in July 2026) to the top performer, month-to-date, as of 19 August 2026, with a stellar gain of 10.7% among major cross-asset classes, followed by spot silver (+9.3%), and Bitcoin/USD (+9.1%) (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: Month-to-date major cross assets performance as of 19 Aug 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
US Treasury buybacks, fiscal dominance & USD debasement The rally in gold (XAU/USD), as reported by most media outlets, has been catalyzed by a sudden announcement of the US Treasury’s doubling of the buyback program for long-dated US Treasury bonds (10-year to 30-year) from $2 billon per operation to $4 billionb operation in a bid to rein in long-term borrowing costs as the 30-year US Treasury yield rocketed to a 19-year high of 5.31% at the start of this week.
Yesterday’s larger US Treasury bond buyback program sent the 30-year yield down by 10 basis points, closing at 5.19% (still an elevated level, a 19-year high) on Wednesday, 19 August 2026.
These media outlets’ reports connected the dots through the lens of interest rates: lower long-term US Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-income-bearing asset, which, in turn, triggered a positive feedback loop into gold.
On the contrary, the rally in gold (XAU/USD) since the end of June 2026 has come in the backdrop of a rising 30-year US Treasury yield (+44 bps) over the same period.
Thus, gold traders are not really pricing in a bullish movement triggered by the pure interest rate conduit, but rather through a currency purchasing power perspective; the US dollar debasement narrative.
Wednesday’s aggressive bullish price action in gold, which saw the US Dollar Index tumble to a three-month low, is being interpreted as a “panic intervention” by the US Treasury and as a sign of fiscal dominance, in which fiscal debt management takes precedence over monetary discipline.
When government bodies step in to cushion sovereign bond markets amid persistent deficit spending, market participants rapidly reprice the risk of long-term USD debasement. Non-yielding bullion directly benefits as a store of value, free from counterparty and inflation risk.
Let’s now unpack the latest short-term technicals of gold (XAU/USD).
Potential start of a new medium-term bullish impulsive up move sequence Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) long-term secular trend as of 20 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 20 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance.
The 6-month corrective decline of 30% from its current all-time intraday high of $5,602 on 29 January 2026 is likely to have ended on 29 January 2026 where its weekly price actions have staged a rebound from the lower boundary of a major ascending channel running from October 2023 low, cleared above the 50-day moving average with a weekly bullish reversal candlestick pattern follow-through on the week of 3 August 2026 (see Fig. 2).
In the short to medium-term horizon, gold (XAU/USD) is now oscillating within an ascending channel in place since the 3 August 2026 low of $4,019.
Watch the $4,434/4,405 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the multi-day bullish impulsive up move sequence. A clearance above the $4,504 near-term resistance (also close to the key 200-day moving average) is likely to reinforce the bullish potential towards the next intermediate resistances at $4,580 and $4,640 in the first step (see Fig. 3).
On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below $4,405 negates the bullish tone for another set of minor corrective pull-back towards the next intermediate support at $4,320 (also the lower boundary of the ascending channel).
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MarketPulse is a forex, commodities, and global indices research, analysis, and news site providing timely and accurate information on major economic trends, technical analysis, and worldwide events that impact different asset classes and investors. This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities.
GBP/USD surged to 1.3613 on Wednesday, reaching a three-month high. Investors are digesting fresh UK inflation and labour market data.
Consumer inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, up from 2.6% in June and in line with forecasts. Core inflation held steady at 2.6%. Following the release, markets slightly scaled back expectations of a Bank of England rate hike before year-end.
Earlier labour market data showed unemployment holding at 4.9%, above expectations, while the number of payrolled employees fell by 86,000 year-on-year. Meanwhile, growth in regular pay remained fairly stable at 3.5%.
Additional support for the pound is coming from a weaker dollar. Soft US economic data have led investors to reduce expectations of further Federal Reserve tightening. At the same time, elevated oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the US–Iran conflict continue to pose inflation risks for the UK.
Technical analysis
On the H4 GBP/USD chart, a wide consolidation range is forming around the 1.3523 level. The market has moved towards its upper boundary. A new compact consolidation range is expected to form below 1.3631. A downside breakout from this range would open the way for a move lower towards 1.3500. The MACD supports this scenario, with its signal line above zero and beginning to turn downwards.
On the H1 chart, the market has formed a compact consolidation range around the 1.3607 level, currently extending between 1.3588 and 1.3618. A move lower towards 1.3572 is expected, followed by a move higher to 1.3600. The Stochastic oscillator confirms this scenario, with its signal line below 80 and trending downward towards 20, indicating short-term downside pressure.
ConclusionGBP/USD has climbed to a three-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and UK economic data that largely met expectations. Inflation accelerated to 2.9% in July, while core inflation held steady, prompting markets to slightly lower BoE rate hike expectations. Labour market data showed unemployment above forecasts and a decline in payroll employment, though wage growth remained stable. The dollar remains under pressure from soft US data, which has reduced Fed tightening expectations. However, elevated oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pose inflation risks for the UK. Technically, the pair may see a short-term pullback towards 1.3572, with potential for a further decline to 1.3500. The near-term direction will depend on upcoming economic releases and central bank signals.
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The Euro (EUR) posts a fresh three-month high at around 1.1693 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Thursday. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar takes a hit due to plunging United States (US) long-dated bond yields after the Treasury Department’s announcement that it will double down on its bond-buying operations to curb higher borrowing costs.
Strategists at Danske Bank note that EUR/USD “spiked higher” after the US Treasury announced an increase in buyback volumes of longer-dated Treasury bonds, a move that coincided with a flattening of the US yield curve. They highlight that the 10Y UST, at “4.64% currently, … is now 10bp below the peak on Tuesday,” and that the adjustment in US yields has “only partly spilled over to Europe, where the primary market has opened with plenty of SSA and covered bond deals.”
In the European session, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, extends its decline and posts a fresh 11-week low near 98.70.
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD-0.15%-0.17%0.16%-0.24%-0.01%-0.33%0.15%EUR0.15%-0.02%0.30%-0.08%0.13%-0.19%0.30%GBP0.17%0.02%0.32%-0.07%0.15%-0.15%0.32%JPY-0.16%-0.30%-0.32%-0.40%-0.17%-0.50%-0.01%CAD0.24%0.08%0.07%0.40%0.24%-0.08%0.39%AUD0.01%-0.13%-0.15%0.17%-0.24%-0.31%0.16%NZD0.33%0.19%0.15%0.50%0.08%0.31%0.50%CHF-0.15%-0.30%-0.32%0.01%-0.39%-0.16%-0.50% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
On the Euro front, financial markets are confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) will raise interest rates at the September meeting. In contrast, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to leave them steady in the same month.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD trades at 1.1693, extending its advance above the 20-period exponential moving average (EMA) at 1.1547. The pair’s position comfortably above this short-term trend indicator suggests a constructive near-term bias, though the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 73.98 signals overbought conditions that could cap upside in the very short run.
On the downside, initial support is located at the 20-day EMA around 1.1547, where a pullback would likely be tested before any deeper correction unfolds. Looking up, the pair could advance towards May's high at around 1.1800 once it stabilizes above 1.1700.
Analysts at UOB Group are also constructive on the pair in the near-term horizon, recalling that they “turned positive on Monday (17 Aug, spot at 1.1570), indicating that ‘the price action suggests EUR is likely to trade with an upside bias.’” On Tuesday (18 Aug, spot at 1.1580), they maintained that “while the upside bias remains intact, given that there is no significant increase in upward momentum, EUR must break and hold above 1.1615 before a move to 1.1655 and beyond can be expected.” That condition was met yesterday as EUR “broke above 1.1615, as it rallied sharply to 1.1679,” with the pair closing “at a three-month high of 1.1677, up by 0.89%.”
UOB now judges that, “given the strong momentum, there is room for further upside in EUR toward 1.1725,” and will “maintain our positive EUR view as long as it stays above 1.1600 (‘strong support’ level previously at 1.1525).”
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar FAQs The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away.
The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.
Key takeaways Gold surges: XAU/USD jumped 4.35% on 19 August, its biggest one-day gain since February, lifting its August gain to 10.7%.USD debasement drives gold: Treasury bond buybacks have fuelled fiscal-dominance concerns, shifting focus from yields to US dollar purchasing-power risk.$4,405 is pivotal: Holding above $4,434/$4,405 keeps the bullish sequence intact, with a break above $4,504 exposing $4,580 and $4,640. Gold (XAU/US) has been on a tear to the upside since the start of August 2026. The precious yellow metal has staged a 10% rally from the potential major swing low of $3,942, printed on 30 June 2026, to Tuesday, 18 August 2026’s closing level of $4,335.
On Wednesday, 19 August 2026, it added a daily gain of 4.35% to close at US$4,523, its largest single-day rally since February 2026.
Overall, spot gold (quoted by the London Bullion Market Association) has now transitioned from a prior underperformer (in July 2026) to the top performer, month-to-date, as of 19 August 2026, with a stellar gain of 10.7% among major cross-asset classes, followed by spot silver (+9.3%), and Bitcoin/USD (+9.1%) (see Fig. 1).
Fig. 1: Month-to-date major cross assets performance as of 19 Aug 2026 (Source: MacroMicro). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. US Treasury buybacks, fiscal dominance & USD debasement The rally in gold (XAU/USD), as reported by most media outlets, has been catalyzed by a sudden announcement of the US Treasury’s doubling of the buyback program for long-dated US Treasury bonds (10-year to 30-year) from $2 billon per operation to $4 billionb operation in a bid to rein in long-term borrowing costs as the 30-year US Treasury yield rocketed to a 19-year high of 5.31% at the start of this week.
Yesterday’s larger US Treasury bond buyback program sent the 30-year yield down by 10 basis points, closing at 5.19% (still an elevated level, a 19-year high) on Wednesday, 19 August 2026.
These media outlets’ reports connected the dots through the lens of interest rates: lower long-term US Treasury yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, a non-income-bearing asset, which, in turn, triggered a positive feedback loop into gold.
On the contrary, the rally in gold (XAU/USD) since the end of June 2026 has come in the backdrop of a rising 30-year US Treasury yield (+44 bps) over the same period.
Thus, gold traders are not really pricing in a bullish movement triggered by the pure interest rate conduit, but rather through a currency purchasing power perspective; the US dollar debasement narrative.
Wednesday’s aggressive bullish price action in gold, which saw the US Dollar Index tumble to a three-month low, is being interpreted as a “panic intervention” by the US Treasury and as a sign of fiscal dominance, in which fiscal debt management takes precedence over monetary discipline.
When government bodies step in to cushion sovereign bond markets amid persistent deficit spending, market participants rapidly reprice the risk of long-term USD debasement. Non-yielding bullion directly benefits as a store of value, free from counterparty and inflation risk.
Let’s now unpack the latest short-term technicals of gold (XAU/USD).
Potential start of a new medium-term bullish impulsive up move sequence Fig. 2: Gold (XAU/USD) long-term secular trend as of 20 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. Fig. 3: Gold (XAU/USD) minor trend as of 20 Aug 2026 (Source: TradingView). The information presented is historical information, and past performance is not indicative of future performance. The 6-month corrective decline of 30% from its current all-time intraday high of $5,602 on 29 January 2026 is likely to have ended on 29 January 2026 where its weekly price actions have staged a rebound from the lower boundary of a major ascending channel running from October 2023 low, cleared above the 50-day moving average with a weekly bullish reversal candlestick pattern follow-through on the week of 3 August 2026 (see Fig. 2).
In the short to medium-term horizon, gold (XAU/USD) is now oscillating within an ascending channel in place since the 3 August 2026 low of $4,019.
Watch the $4,434/4,405 key short-term pivotal support to maintain the multi-day bullish impulsive up move sequence. A clearance above the $4,504 near-term resistance (also close to the key 200-day moving average) is likely to reinforce the bullish potential towards the next intermediate resistances at $4,580 and $4,640 in the first step (see Fig. 3).
On the other hand, failure to hold and an hourly close below $4,405 negates the bullish tone for another set of minor corrective pull-back towards the next intermediate support at $4,320 (also the lower boundary of the ascending channel).
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.
Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.
In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.
Based in Singapore, Kelvin Wong is a well-established senior global macro strategist with over 15 years of experience trading and providing market research on foreign exchange, stock markets, and commodities.
Passionate about connecting the dots in the financial markets and sharing perspectives around trading and investment, Kelvin Wong is an expert in using a unique combination of fundamental and technical analyses, specializing in Elliott Wave and fund flow positioning, to pinpoint key reversal levels in the financial markets.
In addition, over the last ten years, Kelvin has conducted numerous market outlook and trading-related seminars, as well as technical analysis training courses, for thousands of retail traders.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate jumped above 1.3600 on Wednesday, reaching its strongest level since May as falling Treasury yields hit the US Dollar.
Pound Sterling's own UK inflation backdrop was broadly neutral.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.360955 (+0.55%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.167557 (+0.86%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.12827 (-0.89%)
DAILY RECAP:
GBP/USD climbed around 0.5% as the Dollar sold off sharply across the major currencies.
The decisive move came after the US Treasury announced it would double buybacks of longer-dated government bonds, sending 10 and 30-year yields lower and easing financial conditions.
Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos warned that failure by the Federal Reserve to recognise that effect would amount to “an additional dollar negative driver.”
The subsequent FOMC minutes were more hawkish.
Several policymakers had been prepared to raise rates in July, while many judged that another increase would be needed if inflation failed to return towards target.
Markets largely looked through that message following softer jobs, inflation and retail sales data released since the meeting.
ING's Chris Turner said: “Our base case is that it does not, and the dollar softens a little,” referring to the prospect of a September Fed hike.
Scotiabank remains similarly cautious on the US currency, stating: “We remain bearish on the outlook for the USD in the short/medium term.”
Pound Sterling had earlier shown little reaction to UK inflation.
Headline CPI rose as expected to 2.9%, while services inflation eased to 3.4% and producer input prices dropped 1.7%.
Those figures, combined with Tuesday's softer labour data, leave the Bank of England with little urgency to raise rates again.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: 1.3650 in Focus After Dollar Sell-Off Thursday brings US jobless claims, forecast at 210,000, alongside the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
Friday is busier for Sterling. UK retail sales are forecast to fall 0.5%, before manufacturing and services PMIs at 09:30 BST.
US flash PMIs follow at 14:45 BST.
Strong UK activity alongside softer US figures could push GBP/USD through 1.3650 and expose 1.3700.
Weak UK retail sales combined with resilient US data would put 1.3500 back in view.
The broader Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) remains constructive while the pair holds above the low-1.35 area.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Key Points:Expanded U.S. Treasury buybacks have pushed longer-term yields lower, removing an important source of support for the dollar.Fed minutes maintained concerns about inflation, leaving monetary policy uncertainty elevated despite the latest dollar weakness.Expectations for another ECB rate increase continue supporting the euro as markets assess persistent inflation pressures.
In this article:GBP/USD
+0.06%
GBP/USD ForecastEUR/USD
+0.05%
EUR/USD ForecastUS Dollar News: Treasury Buybacks Weaken Dollar as ECB and BoE Stay Cautious The U.S. dollar began August 20 with added pressure as bond market stress eased after the Treasury Department unexpectedly doubled longer-dated government bond buybacks, and the 30-year yield fell from its 19-year high of 5.337% to 5.211%. The Department Secretary Scott Bessent said buybacks of 10- to 30-year securities would rise from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation. The dollar also softened amid Fed minutes with continued concern for inflation and expectations for further tightening, though many of the policymakers had described recent price pressures as easing.
The softer U.S. dollar backdrop has driven the euro higher. For the European Central Bank, expectations are firmer. A Reuters survey showed the majority of respondents expected the ECB to lift its deposit rate to 2.50% next, after inflation in July hit 2.9%. ECB policymaker Olli Rehn said, however, at his Wednesday meeting that wage growth is still low, and there aren’t yet any clear signs of second-round inflation. This suggests policy makers will keep the more relaxed approach to honing policy in contrast to an aggressive rate hiking cycle.
Sterling’s fundamentals are more mixed. UK inflation rose to a four-month high of 2.9% in July, matching expectations but coming in a touch higher than the Bank of England’s estimate of 2.8%. Energy prices were the biggest cause after the capped prices increased by 13% and inflation for core goods and services remained at 2.6% and inflation for services fell to 3.4%. Private sector wage growth slowed to 2.8%. Additionally, there was a large decrease in job openings.
For central FX on August 20, we expect broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar due to falling longer term yields and the ECB remaining on track for one more rate hike and the BoE’s challenges of higher inflation in energy and weakening employment.
U.S. Dollar Index Technical Analysis: DXY Breaks Rising Trendline as $98.41 Comes Into Focus Dollar Index Price Chart – Source: Tradingview The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading at $98.89 on the daily chart after a significant breakout below a bullish rising trendline and the support at $99.38. Price is also trading below the 50-day EMA at $100.11 and the 100-day EMA at $99.85, showing bullish short-term structure. The latest breakdown has created a bearish view of the DXY for the foreseeable future. The current trend has been broken and a small doji candlestick has formed, attempting a small correction.
RSI is currently around 32 showing that DXY is getting close to being oversold and that downside momentum is stretching. For now, resistance is at $99.38 and $100.06 and $100.66. As for support, we are looking at $98.41 and $97.84.
DXY is technically bearish for me as long as it is below $99.38. A move back towards the broken trend line is possible, but the structure would only improve significantly above $100.06. If we continue to move lower from $98.41, we could even see $97.84.
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview GBP/USD is trading at $1.3601 on the 2-hour chart. After a nice bullish breakout, price has moved well clear of the $1.3530-$1.3540 consolidation zone. Price is currently above the 50 EMA ($1.3556) and the 100 EMA ($1.3529), above both of which the bullish trend runs. The latest candles have formed a consolidation zone just below resistance at $1.3630.
At this moment, RSI is at 67 indicating strong bullish pressure that is starting to push the indicator into overbought territory. Resistance is expected at $1.3605, $1.3630, $1.3651, and $1.3673. Support is expected at $1.3590, $1.3577, $1.3564, and $1.3541.
I believe the short term view remains bullish as long as price is holding at/above $1.3577 to $1.3590. A strong clear break of $1.3630 has the potential to drive price to $1.3651, $1.3673, and beyond with ease. A break of $1.3564 will create a bearish outlook.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis: Euro Tests $1.1684 Resistance as Momentum Turns Overbought EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview EUR/USD is trading at $1.1672 on the 4-hour chart after a significant breakout from the $1.1570 zone. Price sits well above the 50-EMA at $1.1579 and the 100-EMA at $1.1543 and continues to indicate a bullish short-term structure. The pair is consolidating along the top of the channel and is now approaching the $1.1684 resistance level, where the last few candlesticks have shown indecision after an aggressive rally.
RSI is at 78, overbought territory, and may offer a short-term consolidation or a correction pullback. Immediate resistance is at $1.1684 and is followed by $1.1706 and $1.1725. Price action will find support at $1.1657 and then at $1.1641, $1.1627 and finally at $1.1614.
EUR/USD will continue to be bullish as long as price action is consolidating above $1.1657. A break above $1.1684 will give a bullish view towards $1.1706 – $1.1725 while a break below $1.1641 will offer a bearish view towards $1.1614.
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Arslan is a finance MBA and also holds an MPhil degree in behavioral finance. An expert in financial analysis and investor psychology, Arslan uses his academic background to bring valuable insights about market sentiment and whether instruments are likely to be overbought or oversold.
Australia's labour market continued to soften in July, with unemployment rising to 4.5%, employment contracting and participation falling. The data is unlikely to trigger an RBA policy shift, but it further reduces the case for another hike.
Danske Research Team notes that EUR/USD jumped after the US Treasury increased buyback volumes of longer-dated US Treasuries, flattening the bond curve and pulling the 10-year yield below Tuesday’s peak. The move in US yields only partially transmitted to Europe, where primary issuance remains active.
"EUR/USD spiked higher after the US Treasury announced an increase in the buyback volumes of longer-dated Treasury bonds and the bond curve flattened. At 4.64% currently, the 10Y UST is now 10bp below the peak on Tuesday. The move in US yields only partly spilled over to Europe, where the primary market has opened with plenty of SSA and covered bond deals."
"In the US, the FOMC minutes from the July meeting contained no major surprises. Views on inflation diverged, with 'many' participants assessing that "policy tightening would likely be necessary if inflation did not decline". Some also noted that financial conditions might not be sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2%, consistent with hold-voters signalling openness to future hikes following the meeting."
"In the euro area, final inflation data confirmed the flash estimate of 2.9% y/y, with core inflation at 2.5% y/y. Underlying inflation measures were broadly unchanged, with only small increases, suggesting it remains quite sticky, but price pressures have not risen significantly following the energy shock."
"Separately, the Q2 Labour Cost Index eased to 3.1% y/y from 3.2% y/y in Q1, suggesting that wage pressures continue to moderate and should remain a disinflationary force. We therefore continue to expect only one further 25bp rate hike from the ECB."
"In the euro area, the ECB publishes the minutes from its July meeting, at which policy rates were left unchanged. We expect the minutes to show a bias towards a rate hike in September, which is also fully priced in by markets. Guidance beyond September is likely to remain limited."
(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)
The short‑term Elliott Wave view in Gold (XAUUSD) indicates that the rally from the June 30 low is unfolding as an impulsive structure. From that level, wave (1) advanced and ended at $4203.21, followed by a corrective pullback in wave (2) that concluded at $3959.37. The subsequent rally in wave (3) extended sharply higher and finished at $4449.73, as reflected in the one‑hour chart. Afterward, the market entered a corrective phase in wave (4), which developed as a zigzag formation. Within this decline, wave A ended at $4363.84, wave B retraced to $4402.12, and wave C moved lower to $4310.65, completing wave (4) at a higher degree.
From that point, the metal resumed its upward trajectory in wave (5). Rising from the wave (4) low, wave 1 advanced to $4416.46, while the corrective pullback in wave 2 ended at $4324.23. The next leg, wave 3, pushed higher and concluded at $4527.24. A pullback in wave 4 is now anticipated, with support expected to emerge in either three or seven swings, setting the stage for further upside to complete wave 5 of (5). In the near term, as long as the pivot at $3997.04 remains intact, the outlook favors continued strength. The structure highlights a sustained bullish bias, with the impulsive sequence reinforcing the potential for additional gains.
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Gold prices fell in Philippines on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 8,901.44 Philippine Pesos (PHP) per gram, down compared with the PHP 8,955.29 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to PHP 103,824.90 per tola from PHP 104,452.80 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in PHP
1 Gram
8,901.44
10 Grams
89,015.05
Tola
103,824.90
Troy Ounce
276,865.80
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Philippines by adapting international prices (USD/PHP) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in Saudi Arabia on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 542.70 Saudi Riyals (SAR) per gram, down compared with the SAR 545.96 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to SAR 6,329.89 per tola from SAR 6,367.93 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in SAR
1 Gram
542.70
10 Grams
5,426.96
Tola
6,329.89
Troy Ounce
16,880.19
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in Saudi Arabia by adapting international prices (USD/SAR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold prices fell in India on Thursday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.
The price for Gold stood at 13,827.90 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 13,906.28 it cost on Wednesday.
The price for Gold decreased to INR 161,285.90 per tola from INR 162,200.20 per tola a day earlier.
Unit measure
Gold Price in INR
1 Gram
13,827.90
10 Grams
138,279.10
Tola
161,285.90
Troy Ounce
430,097.40
FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.
Gold FAQs Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)
Gold (XAU/USD) eases from its highest level since early June, touched during the Asian session this Thursday, eroding a part of the previous day's strong gains of over 3%. Hawkish FOMC Minutes released on Wednesday, along with persistent geopolitical uncertainties, ease retreating US bond yields-led US Dollar (USD) selling bias, which turns out to be a key factor exerting some pressure on the bullion.
In fact, minutes from the July 28-29 FOMC meeting revealed that Federal Reserve officials indicated they would need to raise interest rates soon unless there was more progress on bringing down inflation. Meanwhile, the recent US macro data releases have shown modest price increases on a monthly basis in July, though inflation remains well above the Federal Reserve's (Fed) 2% target. Moreover, investors remain worried that higher energy prices due to the Middle East crisis will rekindle inflationary pressures. This keeps bets for at least one Fed rate hike in 2026 on the table. Apart from this, the US-Iran impasse offers some support to the safe-haven USD, which, in turn, is seen as undermining the non-yielding Gold.
In the latest development, President Donald Trump said the US will launch the most crushing economic operation against Iran and threatened severe financial penalties on any nation that helps Tehran evade sanctions or does business with Iran. This comes as the US and Iran remain deadlocked over the Strait of Hormuz, which keeps the war-risk premium in play. However, sliding US bond yields might hold back USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, warranting caution before confirming that the gold price has topped out in the near-term and positioning for a corrective decline.
The US Department of the Treasury stepped in to provide relief to bond markets and announced on Wednesday that it would at least double buyback operations for long-dated government debt starting in September. This led the 30-year yield to tumble from its highest level since June 2007. According to TD Securities, the "announcement that the US Treasury is increasing the size of liquidity support buyback operations" has "given metals a jolt of life," with the expanded programme helping to underpin renewed interest in precious metals such as Gold.
Traders now look forward to Thursday's US economic docket, featuring the release of the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. This, along with speeches from influential FOMC members and the incoming geopolitical headlines, will drive the USD and the Gold price.
XAU/USD daily chart
Technical AnalysisThe XAU/USD pair faces rejection near the $4,510-$4,515 confluence – comprising the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the April-June decline. This hints at waning upside scope in the short run. That said, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 65.17 hovers near overbought territory while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains in positive terrain, suggesting underlying bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, initial support aligns with the 50.0% retracement at $4,404, ahead of a deeper structural cushion at the 38.2% level near $4,295 and the 23.6% Fibo. at $4,159, where buyers could attempt to stabilize any corrective slide. On the topside, bulls need to wait for a move beyond the $4,510-$4,515 confluence before positioning for additional gains toward the 78.6% Fibo. level at $4,670 and ultimately the cycle high near $4,869.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
US Dollar Price Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Swiss Franc.
USDEURGBPJPYCADAUDNZDCHFUSD0.00%-0.02%0.16%-0.01%0.12%-0.28%0.30%EUR-0.00%-0.02%0.17%-0.01%0.12%-0.29%0.30%GBP0.02%0.02%0.17%0.00%0.14%-0.23%0.31%JPY-0.16%-0.17%-0.17%-0.17%-0.03%-0.45%0.13%CAD0.01%0.00%0.00%0.17%0.15%-0.26%0.31%AUD-0.12%-0.12%-0.14%0.03%-0.15%-0.40%0.16%NZD0.28%0.29%0.23%0.45%0.26%0.40%0.59%CHF-0.30%-0.30%-0.31%-0.13%-0.31%-0.16%-0.59% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
Silver price (XAG/USD) posts a fresh two-month high at $67.33 in the Asian trading session on Thursday. The white metal rallies as long-dated United States (US) Treasury Yields have declined significantly, following the announcement from the Treasury Department on Wednesday that it will double the size of buybacks for long-dated securities.
Such a move would increase the flow of the US Dollar (USD) into the economy, which has also weighed on the currency.
As of writing, 10-year US Treasury Yields trade vulnerably near Wednesday’s low of 4.64%. On Wednesday, 10-year US bond yields declined over 1.5%. 30-year US Treasury Yields are down almost 2% from Tuesday’s closing price to near 5.18%. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to its fresh seven-week low at 98.77.
Lower yields on interest-bearing assets improve the appeal of non-yielding assets, such as Silver.
Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the July meeting showed that many board members felt the need for interest rate hikes if inflation remains higher. Theoretically, the scenario bodes poorly for non-yielding assets.
Silver Technical Analysis
XAG/USD trades at $67.10, extending its advance well above the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $63.20 and reinforcing a bullish near-term bias. The metal is supported by the rising EMA, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 61.48 stays in positive territory without yet reaching overbought, suggesting that upside momentum remains constructive but not stretched.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the recent price pivot near $67.10, followed by firmer dynamic support at the 20-period EMA around $63.20, where buyers would be expected to defend the broader uptrend. Looking up, the white metal could extend its advance to $70.00, followed by the June 16 high at $71.19.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Silver FAQs Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The US Treasury's liquidity-support buyback announcement triggered a sharp fall in long-term Treasury yields and the Dollar Index, boosting the rally in major currencies. DXY could test 98.50–98.00 before rebounding; EURUSD may rise to 1.17, GBPUSD to 1.37, and EURJPY to 186. USDCNY has plunged to 6.7207 and remains bearish towards 6.70, while EURINR trades above 111 and looks bullish towards 112.50 in line with our expectations. USDINR could fall from 95.75 on Dollar weakness, but higher crude prices may limit the downside.
The US Treasury Yields have come down sharply. The Treasury Department announcing that it will double its repurchase has dragged the yields. But on the charts, nothing much has changed. The broader bullish view is still intact. The 10Yr is coming down within its range. The 30Yr has support to limit the downside. The German Yields sustain higher and keep intact the broader bullish view. They have room to rise more. The 10Yr GoI remains stable. While it sustains above the immediate support, there are good chances to see some more rise. Thereafter the broader downtrend can resume.
Global equities remain mixed, with Dow and DAX continuing to face downside pressure towards 53000 and 26000 respectively. Nifty is holding above the key 24000 support and can bounce towards 24300-24350 in the coming weeks. Nikkei remains weak after testing 65170 and can decline further towards 64500-64000. Shanghai is hovering near 3900, with a sustained break below this level opening the way towards 3850-3800 and weakening the earlier bullish view towards 4000.
Brent and WTI likely to remain range-bound within $80-$95 and $75-$90 respectively until a breakout provides further direction. Gold has broken above $4500 and can rise towards $4600-$4650 while holding above $4200. Silver remains bullish and can advance towards $70-$75. Copper has bounced from the $6.35-$6.30 support zone and can rise towards $6.65-$6.75. Natural Gas remains positive and can move above $2.80 in the coming sessions.
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If the dollar debasement narrative is going to show up anywhere in the FX universe, you'd imagine the euro would be the obvious place. It carries the largest weighting in the US Dollar Index, giving EUR/USD outsized influence as a gauge of broader dollar sentiment.
Gold is struggling around the $4,500 level in Asia on Thursday after reaching the highest level in 11 weeks at $4,528 in early dealings.
Gold’s bullish bias remains intact ahead of US jobs dataGold refreshed two-month highs above $4,500 as Asian traders returned to their desks and reacted positively to the United States (US) Treasury’s rescue plan announced on Wednesday, after longer-dated Treasury yields shot through the roof and roiled the bond markets.
The US Treasury announced that it will double buyback sizes for 10- to 30-year Treasury debt securities to at least $4 billion per operation.
The increase from the previously planned $2 billion buybacks will apply to the 10-year to 20-year sector and the 20-year to 30-year sector and will be effective September 9 through November 4, the department said in a statement.
The announcement offered much-needed relief to the global markets, driving yields and the US Dollar (USD) sharply lower, while providing a fresh boost to non-yielding assets such as Gold.
However, the uptick in Gold was quickly reversed, with the bullion down over 0.50% as of writing, as the USD stalls its overnight slump, drawing support from the Minutes of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) July policy meeting and the US-Iran stalemate.
Minutes showed growing concern over persistent inflation. Several policymakers were open to raising interest rates, while many said a rate hike could be necessary if inflation fails to move back toward the Fed’s 2% target.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump threatened in a post on Truth Social on Thursday that the US will launch the “most crushing economic operation ever taken against any country”, declaring economic warfare and isolation on an “unprecedented scale” against Iran.
Calling the campaign an “economic D-Day”, Trump urged US allies to join efforts to isolate Iran. Despite the fresh US warning and fading hopes of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Oil prices remain in an upside-consolidative phase.
Looking ahead, traders await the US Jobless Claims data release for fresh insight into the health of the labor market, following the July Nonfarm Payrolls debacle. Fedspeak and geopolitical headlines will also remain in play.
Only a convincing leg up in Oil prices and/ or a shift in the hawkish sentiment around the Fed could negate the near-term bullish outlook for Gold.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, XAU/USD trades at $4,495.76, holding a bullish near‑term bias as spot prices remain above the 21‑day, 50‑day and 100‑day simple moving averages (SMAs), clustered between roughly $4,164 and $4,380 and reinforcing a supported undertone. However, the 200‑day SMA at $4,512.34 sits just overhead as immediate resistance, hinting at a potential cap on further gains unless decisively reclaimed, while the Relative Strength Index (14) around 65 suggests firm but not yet extreme upside momentum.
On the downside, initial support is seen at the 100‑day SMA near $4,380.25, followed by the 21‑day SMA at $4,240.40 and then the 50‑day SMA at $4,164.36, which together define a broad demand band that could attract dip‑buying in case of a pullback. On the topside, a clear break above the 200‑day SMA resistance at $4,512.34 would open the door for a continuation of the advance, keeping the bullish bias intact while placing the focus on higher psychological levels above the $4,500 region.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool. Know more.)
Gold sentiment brightens as US Treasury support and stagflation risks bolster demandAccording to TD Securities, the precious metals complex is showing “renewed upside” as policy developments and shifting investor flows revive interest in gold. The bank notes that the announcement that the US Treasury is increasing the size of “liquidity support buyback operations” has “given metals a jolt of life,” reinforcing the appeal of bullion in particular.
For gold, TD Securities highlights that “ETF accumulation has also picked back up,” with the recent “string of daily outflows from Chinese ETFs” now having “ended with a return to inflows.” While the “fierce bid has faded in recent days,” the strategists argue that these flows “could quickly return amid Treasury liquidity support, a Fed willing to look through an energy shock, and a growing stagflation narrative, which should all ultimately see lower real rates.”
