Gold Technical Outlook: XAU/USD Multi-Timeframe Analysis
Gold price support is under test after a 12.6% slide from the August high, as rising Treasury yields add fresh pressure on the precious metal. Michael Boutros, StoneX Media Senior Market Analyst, walks through gold's weekly, daily and four-hour charts and the opening ranges that frame its next breakout. Gold's key support sits where the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the advance off the yearly low meets a trendline in place since 2024. The weekly opening range above that zone sets the breakout trigger, while climbing Treasury yields and upcoming Federal Reserve minutes shape the macro backdrop.
This content was created by an affiliate of FOREX.com and represents the views and opinions of the author/speakers, not the views and opinions of Forex.com, StoneX Group Inc., or its subsidiaries. The content has not been independently reviewed by FOREX.com.
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Swiss Franc Technical Outlook: USD/CHF Bulls Attempt to Regroup After Sharp Reversal
US Dollar Technical Outlook: DXY Bulls Meet Resistance at Yearly Highs
British Pound Technical Outlook: GBP/USD Rebound Challenges September Downtrend
Canadian Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/CAD Seven-Day Rally Tests Major Resistance
Australian Dollar Technical Outlook: AUD/USD Breakdown Threatens Deeper Correction
--- Written by Michael Boutros, Senior Technical Strategist
Daily Spot Silver (XAG/USD) Spot silver is trading sharply lower Wednesday after failing to hold the long-term 50% level at $60.835. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.
The move through last Friday’s low at $59.69 signals a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through the main top at $67.55 will change the main trend to up.
The minor trend is down. A trade through the minor top at $62.09 will turn the minor trend up.
The first resistance is the short-term retracement zone at $61.04 to $62.98. Silver failed inside the lower half of this area early Wednesday. Taking out $62.09 would put the upper boundary at $62.98 in play, followed by the 50-day moving average at $64.21.
The break below $59.69 leaves the swing bottoms at $56.56 and $54.78 as the next downside targets. The long-term value area remains $60.835 to $46.48.
What to Watch The 10-year auction and the Fed minutes are what silver has to get through Wednesday. The dollar is back near its high and the 10-year is back near its 2002 peak, so sellers aren’t waiting on a new reason.
My read is the auction matters more than the minutes for silver today. Minutes look backward.
The auction shows in real time what it costs to clear a 10-year sale with yields already at 2002 levels. That’s the price silver has been trading against since the end of July. Oil running hot doesn’t make that sale any easier. The dollar has a short walk back to Monday’s high. Silver’s been the weaker metal Wednesday, and it goes into the afternoon without a single piece of the financial trade on its side.
Spot silver lost $60.835 early Wednesday, then took out Friday’s $59.69 low on the way to $58.99. The bias is to the downside while the main trend is down, silver remains below the midpoint and the market trades under the 50-day moving average. The next swing bottom underneath is $56.56, with the minor top at $62.09 well overhead.
Silver continues to test support as rates rise. This is a market that will continue to suffer as long as rates are elevated, something that seems to be a fact of life at the moment.
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GBPUSD fell toward 1.3180 as market support remains at 1.3140-60. As long as the market holds above the support zone of 1.3140-60, a rebound towards the 1.3350-1.3400 zone is likely.
USDJPY added more value above 157.85 as the drop pressure still overshadows the market as traders expect an intervention from the Bank of Japan. Intraday prices show resistances at 159.00 and 160.00, whilst a drop wave could hit the market toward 156.40 and 153.90.
Obvious lows attract orders. Traders who own the market place their stop-loss orders right below the prior low, and traders who want to sell a breakdown place their entry orders in the same spot. When the price breaks the low, those orders fire together, and the price drops quickly. If that is the last of the selling, there is nobody left to push the price lower, and buyers who were waiting for a better price take the other side. The price climbs back above the broken low, and the traders who sold the breakdown are now short below the market. Their buying to cover adds fuel to the rebound.
The result is a failed breakdown: a break below a prior low that reverses within the same session. It tells you that the remaining sellers have sold, and it often marks a bottom, especially when it happens at support. The close is what matters. A close back above the broken low, and above the day’s open, shows that the buyers won the session. The confirmation comes over the next few sessions, if the market does not make a new low.
That is what crude did on Tuesday. WTI broke below its late-September low of $88.58, fell to about $87.40, and closed at $89.44, above the broken low and above the day’s open, at the rising support line and on the day the triangle-vertex technique flagged. Three separate signals pointed to the same session. This morning, WTI is slightly higher, so the first part of the confirmation is in place.
The mirror image works at tops: a break above a prior high that fails within the same session often means the last buyers have bought. When you see either pattern on gold, silver, or the USD Index, treat the close as the signal and the next few sessions as the test.
The fundamentals did not change overnight: Gulf exports are recovering, and the G7’s diesel is on its way. What changed is that the market stopped falling on that news, which is how bottoms usually form. Yesterday, I explained why diesel matters more for inflation than crude, and why the long end of the bond market kept rising while crude fell. If crude now rises from here, it adds pressure to an inflation picture in which diesel never got cheap, and through the oil-rates-USD-gold link, that is bearish for the precious metals.
The Dollar Verified Its Breakout Yesterday, I wrote: “Monday’s close was the third straight daily close above the previous 2026 highs, which confirms the breakout.”
Daily Spot Gold (XAU/USD) Spot gold is trading lower Wednesday after failing to extend Tuesday’s bounce from $4,103.52. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart.
A trade through $4,399.67 will change the main trend to up. A move through $4,103.52 will reaffirm the downtrend.
The first resistance is the long-term 61.8% level at $4,230.51. Overtaking this level could extend the recovery into the 50% level at $4,319.61, followed closely by the 50-day moving average at $4,331.64.
On the downside, a break through $4,103.52 would expose the main bottoms at $3,996.06, $3,959.80 and $3,942.10.
What to Watch The Fed minutes and the 10-year auction are what gold has to get through Wednesday. Both hit with the dollar firm again and the long end back near its highs.
I’m watching the 10-year more than any single line in the minutes. The auction shows what it costs to get somebody to own long-dated paper right now. Gold has been trading off that number all week. The minutes are the other half. Traders already know the committee hiked in September. What they don’t know is how many officials saw the jump in long-term yields as doing some of the Fed’s work for it. That’s the part that decides how December stays priced. The dollar is the third piece. It’s back within reach of Monday’s high with gold leaning on its own low.
Spot gold topped at $4,170.00 early and slid back toward Tuesday’s $4,103.52 low by mid-morning in London. The bias is to the downside while the main trend is down and spot gold remains below the 61.8% level at $4,230.51 and the 50-day moving average.
GBP/USD technical analysis shows the British pound holding a sideways range since November 2025 as the U.S. dollar index hits fresh 2026 highs.
Razan Hilal, StoneX Media Market Analyst, walks through the weekly and daily GBP/USD charts and the scenarios a range exit opens. Daily RSI readings on GBP/USD and EUR/USD are rebounding from oversold levels last seen in November 2025 and 2015 respectively, as the U.S. dollar index sits at overbought daily conditions last seen in 2023.
Fibonacci extensions map staged resistance up to the top of the British pound's consolidation, while a sustained breakdown below support opens a path toward the November 2025 lows.
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I cover this chart every week in my Markets in Focus webinar
USD/JPY technical analysis shows an intact long-term uptrend, while EUR/JPY sits at oversold extremes last seen in 2024 on French debt uncertainty.
Razan Hilal, CMT, StoneX Media Market Analyst, walks through how Bank of Japan policy, euro weakness and the U.S. dollar index are shaping the yen crosses. The Bank of Japan's preference for gradual tightening, aimed at anchoring inflation near 2%, keeps the Japanese yen relatively weak and the USD/JPY uptrend channel in place since 2023 intact. That holds even as the U.S. dollar index shows reversal risk, while a move toward multi-decade highs in USD/JPY revives Bank of Japan intervention risk.
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I cover this chart every week in my Markets in Focus webinar.
The dollar was back on the front foot after a brief pause, with EUR/USD, gold and silver all slipping as bond yields and crude oil both pushed higher. There is not much on the calendar today until the release of the September FOMC meeting minutes. At that meeting, the Fed’s dot plot and Chairman Kevin Warsh’s press conference already tilted hawkish, so the minutes are unlikely to deliver much of a dovish surprise. At the same time, recent US data have been soft. So, the bar for another meaningful leg higher in reaction to the FOMC minutes for the dollar is high. The greenback is more likely to find continued support if oil prices push further higher after yesterday’s impressive recovery from a 3% decline earlier in the day. This means that the EUR/USD forecast remains titled to the downside for now.
Keep an eye on oil prices
Oil remains the key swing factor. Brent is back above $100 a barrel as concerns over the Strait of Hormuz persist, keeping pressure on bond markets and limiting the scope for a sustained dollar pullback.
Source: TradingView.com
Until something changes drastically, I can’t see oil prices falling back meaningfully any time soon, despite reports that the flows through the Strait have improved in recent weeks. So much oil has been lost that it will take a significant amount of time to return to pre-war levels. Let’s not forget that those depleted global oil inventories will need to be filled and soon. This will keep demand for oil high at the time when supply is restricted. Crude oil, therefore, have to rise to a new equilibrium price soon, if there is no meaningful shift in the supply curve. At the very least, expect oil prices to remain elevated for a while yet and this should keep inflation and stagflation concerns high. While oil flows may have improved, the risk of further disruption has not gone away. With little evidence of an imminent deal, elevated energy prices remain a constraint on any meaningful recovery in bonds and, by extension, on a sustained decline in the dollar. This should keep the EUR/USD forecast tilted to the downside until something changes.
Dollar will need to find something new from the FOMC minutes
Tonight’s release of the September FOMC minutes will be watched closely by the FX markets. Investors will be looking for clues on the Fed’s reaction function, particularly what kind of inflation outcome would be enough to justify another rate hike this year. Any discussion around the dovish dissent will also attract attention.
But the minutes may struggle to deliver the dovish surprise some dollar bears are hoping for. Reall that the dot plot showed four policymakers expecting two further hikes this year, compared with just two expecting no additional tightening.
At the same time, the data since the September meeting have been relatively soft and markets already have pushed their expectations to a December hike from October. That means the bar for the minutes to generate another significant dollar rally is also high.
EUR/USD forecast: France is not out of the woods
French sovereign spreads may have narrowed a bit in recent days, helped mainly by the broader improvement in global bond sentiment, although Marine Le Pen’s pledge to bring France’s budget deficit down sharply to 3.7% of GDP next year also provided some support. But don’t expect that to be the end of it. For indeed, it is too early to call this a meaningful turning point for French assets.
Le Pen is clearly trying to position herself as a more market-friendly candidate, but the credibility of the fiscal adjustment remains the sticking point. The proposed €140 billion of savings look ambitious to say the least and it will be seen how it will be delivered.
That makes it difficult to see yesterday’s narrowing in spreads as the beginning of a sustained French bond recovery.
Technical EUR/USD forecast and key levels to watch
From a technical analysis point of view, the EUR/USD had broken key weekly support around the 1.1360 area, so the bias remains tilted to the downside. The pair found some support around the 127.2% extension of the last upswing at 1.1220 earlier this week, but the selling has now resumed after the pair was unable to break above 1.1260 short-term resistance.
Source: TradingView.com
The next major downside area on the EURUSD chart I am watching comes in around 1.1085, the 161.8% Fibonacci extension. Below that, the 1.1000 handle could be the next stop.
Watch: EUR/USD and gold analysis
Frequently asked questions
Could tonight’s FOMC minutes change the dollar outlook?
The key is whether the minutes add something new about the Federal Reserve’s reaction to inflation. The hawkish dot plot limits the scope for a dovish surprise, but softer subsequent data also raise the bar for another significant dollar rally.
Does narrower French debt pricing mark a turning point for the euro?
I think it is too early to call a sustained recovery. Better global bond sentiment has helped, but the credibility of France’s proposed fiscal adjustment remains the sticking point.
Are the deeper EUR/USD downside objectives a forecast for today?
Not necessarily. However, the direction of travel seems to be southbound. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we got there as early as today – especially if oil prices spike.
TL;DR: Euro flipped from the strongest to the weakest major currency in a single session as French bond relief proved short-lived—the OAT-Bund spread widened back toward 137bp—and EUR/CAD has now broken decisively below 1.6000, with 1.5887 the next key test.
Why This Matters The Euro is back under pressure, reversing Tuesday’s rebound as relief in French government bonds proves short-lived. At 08:00 GMT on Wednesday, Euro was the weakest of the eight major currencies on the ActionForex Currency Heat Map, falling against all seven peers after ranking as the strongest major a day earlier. That swing in a single session is the clearest sign that Tuesday’s calm was relief, not resolution—France’s fiscal credibility problem hasn’t gone anywhere, and EUR/CAD is where the renewed pressure is now showing up most clearly on the charts.
French Bond Relief Lasts One Session The reversal is again centered on France. The French 10-year yield rose to around 4.864%, up roughly 7.8bp on the session, while the OAT-Bund spread widened back toward 137bp from around 130bp at Tuesday’s close. The relative move matters: US Treasuries, gilts and Bunds were also under pressure, but French yields were rising considerably faster.
Tuesday’s narrowing from Monday’s roughly 150bp intraday peak therefore looks more like temporary relief than a shift in the underlying story. The global bond rally helped French debt recover, but France’s fiscal position and the market’s demand for a larger risk premium did not materially change.
France’s Fiscal Credibility Remains the Core Problem The structural backdrop remains difficult. France’s budget deficit stood at 5.1% of GDP last year, while public debt had risen to 119% of GDP by the end of June. France is also subject to the EU’s excessive deficit procedure, with the bloc recommending that the deficit be brought back within agreed limits by 2029.
Borrowing costs have responded accordingly. The French 10-year yield has risen sharply this year and now trades above those of Italy and Greece, while investors increasingly demand a larger premium over German Bunds.
UBS Chief Executive Sergio Ermotti, speaking to CNBC’s Squawk On The Street on Tuesday, argued that France needs “hard measures” rather than incremental adjustments. His message was blunt: “Incremental small changes are not going to be enough to resolve the big debt pile.”
Federated Hermes’ Mitch Reznick made the market consequence equally clear, saying French debt is increasingly being priced “less like core Europe and more like the periphery.” Investors shifting toward Bunds reinforces that divergence by widening the OAT-Bund spread further.
For now, Reznick still sees direct ECB intervention as unlikely. But he noted that the central bank’s language could start to change if spreads continue to gap wider. That keeps ECB intervention as an escalation risk rather than the current base case.
Higher French Yields Are Hurting, Not Helping, the Euro The important distinction for FX is that higher French yields are being interpreted as a risk premium, not as an attractive rates advantage. That helps explain why French yields can rise while the Euro falls. Investors are demanding more compensation to hold French debt because of fiscal and political uncertainty, rather than repricing stronger Eurozone growth or a meaningfully tighter ECB outlook.
The rates channel is also turning less supportive. Expectations for future ECB tightening have moderated, while the short-end differential against the Dollar remains heavily negative. EUR/USD was trading around 1.1236 earlier Wednesday, leaving downside risks intact if renewed French stress continues to push capital toward Bunds and the Dollar.
The Euro’s move from the strongest major on Tuesday to the weakest on Wednesday captures the speed at which the temporary relief has unwound.
ActionForex’s Technical View on EUR/CAD EUR/CAD Breaks the 1.6000 Floor
EUR/CAD’s decline from 1.6269 is finally showing some conviction, with the cross breaking clearly below the 1.5998–1.6000 support zone. That area should now turn into resistance, and near-term risks will remain on the downside as long as 1.6000 holds.
The immediate test is 1.5887, the 100% projection of the decline from 1.6247 to 1.5998 measured from 1.6136. This is more than just another short-term target. A firm break of 1.5887, particularly if accompanied by renewed downside acceleration, would strengthen the bearish structure and target the 161.8% projection at 1.5732.
Daily momentum is consistent with further weakness. RSI has fallen to around 34.6, while MACD is below its signal line and remains capped beneath a descending trendline. A recovery back above 1.6000 would weaken the immediate bearish case, while a move through 1.6136 would more clearly indicate that the breakdown had failed.
Break of 1.5887 Could Turn the Decline Into a Bigger Move
The weekly chart raises the stakes. EUR/CAD is also trading below its 55-week EMA, although Friday’s close is still needed to confirm a sustained break of that support. More importantly, the developing structure suggests that the fall from 1.6269 could be the third leg of the broader decline from the 1.6465 2025 high. The first leg fell from 1.6465 to 1.5610, before a substantial rebound to 1.6269.
That makes 1.5887 the key bridge between the short-term breakdown and the medium-term bearish case. A decisive break with accelerating downside momentum would raise the probability that the larger decline from 1.6465 is resuming. Attention would then move through 1.5732 toward the pivotal 1.5610 low. A break of 1.5610 would further confirm the larger bearish structure and put the 1.5414 equality projection, based on a 100% projection of the 1.6465 to 1.5610 decline from 1.6269, into focus.
France Is the Cause, EUR/CAD Is the Expression The near-term calendar could still disturb the move. FOMC minutes are due at 18:00 GMT Wednesday, making US yields and the Dollar an immediate volatility risk. Canada’s employment report on Friday will then arrive shortly before EUR/CAD’s weekly close.
But the underlying chain remains straightforward. Tuesday’s bond rally temporarily relieved the pressure without resolving France’s fiscal credibility problem. French spreads are widening again, Euro has slipped back to the bottom of the major-currency table, and EUR/CAD has lost a support level that had held the recent range.
France is the cause, the Euro is the transmission, and EUR/CAD is where the renewed pressure is showing up.
Key Takeaways Euro flipped from the strongest to the weakest major currency within 24 hours as the OAT-Bund spread widened back to 137bp, confirming Tuesday’s calm was relief rather than resolution. France’s deficit (5.1% of GDP) and debt (119% of GDP) remain the core problem; UBS’s Ermotti says only “hard measures,” not incremental fixes, will resolve it. Higher French yields are being priced as risk premium, not rate attractiveness—which is why French yields can rise while the Euro falls. EUR/CAD has broken below the 1.5998–1.6000 support zone, with 1.5887 now the key bridge between a short-term breakdown and a bigger medium-term bearish move toward 1.5610. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes and Friday’s Canadian jobs report are near-term risks that could disturb the move, but the underlying driver remains France’s unresolved fiscal credibility problem.
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EUR/USD stabilised at 1.1234 on Wednesday. Investors are awaiting the release of the minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting, hoping for fresh signals on the future path of monetary policy.
Comments from Fed officials also remain in focus. Following weaker-than-expected PCE inflation and labour market data, the Fed’s rhetoric has become less hawkish. Markets now put the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October at almost 80%.
Meanwhile, investors continue to monitor the bond market following the recent sell-off. Pressure on Treasuries is being compounded by concerns over persistent inflation, growing fiscal risks and significant debt issuance linked to funding AI projects.
Oil, meanwhile, is rising amid increased Iranian attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and clashes between Saudi and Houthi forces. This is adding to inflation risks and sustaining concerns that the Fed may maintain a hawkish policy stance for longer.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart, EUR/USD remains in a steady downtrend. Earlier, the pair staged a corrective recovery to 1.1275, after which a new downward move developed, taking the price back to the 1.1244 area. The price remains below the descending resistance line, keeping the bearish scenario intact. Local consolidation is currently forming below 1.1244. The nearest downside target is 1.1210. A close below this level would open the way for a further decline towards 1.1173 and, within the broader structure, towards 1.1129. The MACD indicator remains in negative territory: the histogram is below zero despite the local weakening of downward momentum.
On the H1 chart, the corrective move ended around 1.1275, where buyers could not push the price above local resistance. The subsequent decline took the pair back to 1.1230, confirming continued selling pressure. The Stochastic oscillator is in the oversold zone below 20, so a short-term correction is possible before the decline resumes. As long as the price remains below 1.1244–1.1275, the main scenario today is a move towards 1.1210. A break below this support would strengthen downward momentum and open the way towards 1.1173. A return above 1.1275 would temporarily invalidate this short-term scenario. Selling remains the priority while the price holds below the descending resistance line.
Conclusion EUR/USD is holding steady as markets await the Fed’s meeting minutes for further policy clues. Recent weak PCE inflation and labour market data have softened the Fed’s tone, with the probability of rates remaining unchanged in October now at nearly 80%. However, persistent inflation concerns, fiscal risks and heavy debt issuance tied to AI funding continue to pressure Treasuries, while rising oil prices amid Middle East tensions add to inflation risks. Technically, the pair remains bearish below 1.1244–1.1275, with the next downside targets at 1.1210, 1.1173 and potentially 1.1129. A short-term correction is possible given oversold conditions, but the broader trend remains downward as long as the price holds below the descending resistance line.
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EURUSD gaining lost ground The euro (EURUSD) looks for a continuation as the pair finds a bounce. The RSI's shift to the neutral zone has drawn selling and buying interest as the euro tries to stabilise above 1.1200.
The Pound-Dollar rate could come under pressure if Fed minutes reinforce December hike expectations, while caution ahead of BoE speeches may cap Sterling. The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate drifted higher on Tuesday as a more sanguine market mood limited the appeal of the 'Greenback'.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3239. A modest rise from Tuesday's opening levels.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.327369 (+0.41%)
Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD): 1.12567 (+0.35%)
Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY): 158.15203 (+0.12%)
DAILY RECAP:
The US Dollar (USD) edged lower on Tuesday as an improvement in global risk appetite reduced demand for the traditional safe-haven currency.
A rally in equities, led by a tech-driven advance on Wall Street, helped encourage investors back towards riskier assets, while a pullback in oil prices provided some additional relief after elevated energy costs had contributed to recent market uncertainty.
The softer tone for the ‘greenback’ came despite the currency remaining close to multi-month highs. The US Dollar Index was hovering around 102.2 after gaining almost 1% last week, while elevated Treasury yields continued to provide a degree of underlying support for USD.
The Pound (GBP) traded in a narrow range on Tuesday morning ahead of a scheduled speech by Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann.
Mann was among a trio of policymakers who backed an immediate quarter-point increase at the central bank's September meeting.
GBP Investors will be watching closely to see whether the Monetary Policy Committee's (MPC) most prominent hawk will double down on the case for higher interest rates, with Sterling poised to rise if she signals support for a rate hike at the bank's next meeting in November.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Hawkish FOMC Minutes to Support the 'Greenback'? Looking ahead to Wednesday, the primary catalyst of movement for the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will be the publication of the minutes from the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting.
USD investors will look to the minutes to better gauge the appetite within the bank for further interest rate hikes.
Barring an exceptionally hawkish tilt, they are unlikely to revive expectations for an October hike, but if they strengthen expectations that monetary policy may be tightened again in December the minutes may still prove positive for Sterling.
Meanwhile, the upside potential for Sterling in mid-week trade may be limited as traders keep their powder dry ahead of a packed slate of BoE appearances on Thursday, headlined by Governor Andrew Bailey.
Exchange Rates UK Research Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
The Pound-Australian Dollar rate could remain supported if risk appetite deteriorates, while caution ahead of key BoE speeches may limit Sterling’s upside.
The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate was steady on Tuesday
At the time of writing, GBP/AUD was trading at AU$1.8972. Virtually unchanged from the start of Tuesday’s European session.
Latest — Exchange Rates:
Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD): 1.327225 (+0.40%)
Australian Dollar to Dollar (AUD/USD): 0.698265 (+0.22%)
DAILY RECAP:
The Australian Dollar (AUD) fluctuated on Tuesday, following another sharp deterioration in domestic consumer confidence.
The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 4.7% in October to 80.4, marking its second consecutive monthly decline and leaving sentiment among the weakest readings recorded since the survey began in the early 1970s.
The deterioration in confidence followed last week’s Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate hike, with the survey showing a particularly pronounced drop in sentiment among respondents questioned after the decision.
However, broader currency dynamics helped to partially offset these domestic headwinds, with a modest pullback in the US Dollar (USD) offering some support for risk-sensitive currencies.
The Pound (GBP) traded sideways on Tuesday morning, with a relatively quiet UK economic calendar leaving Sterling looking for fresh direction.
Attention was instead turning towards a scheduled appearance from Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Catherine Mann, with investors keen to assess whether the traditionally hawkish MPC member would reinforce expectations of further monetary tightening.
Mann was one of three policymakers to vote for a 25bps interest rate hike at the bank's September meeting, and her comments could strengthen Sterling sentiment if she signals support for a hike in November.
Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: Strong Inflation to Lift the 'Aussie'?
Looking ahead to the middle of the week, in the absence of any notable UK or Australian data, movement in the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate is likely to be dictated by wider market trends.
Of the two, the 'Aussie' is likely to prove the more sensitive to any shifts in market risk appetite, with AUD likely to give up ground if sentiment remains broadly downbeat.
Meanwhile, a gloomy mood may also temper GBP demand, while caution ahead of speeches by several BoE policymakers – including Governor Andrew Bailey – on Thursday may also cap Sterling.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
Gold: China Steps Up Buying as Fed Minutes Take Center Stage Data released on Wednesday showed that the People’s Bank of China increased its gold holdings for the 23rd month in a row in September. Official holdings increased to 77.47 million ounces in September from 76.73 million ounces in August, according to the data. The increase shows that Beijing’s gold accumulation is part of a strategic reserves’ diversification program, and not a short-term market intervention.
Other central banks have also been accumulating the yellow metal. The World Gold Council reported that according to the latest data, official sector purchases for the month of August totaled 39 tonnes, bringing year to date purchases to 170 tonnes.
The minutes from the September FOMC meeting is set for release on Wednesday, and markets will be monitoring the release to interpret how policymakers changed their views on the economy. A slowdown in the U.S. labor market and moderating U.S. inflation have been the primary driver behind expectations that the FOMC will not increase interest rates at its October meeting.
However, markets are pricing in an over 85% probability of an interest rate increase at the December FOMC meeting. Earlier this week, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jeffrey Schmid, said that further increases in the Fed’s policy rate may still be warranted to keep inflation in check.
Silver: Investment Demand Offsets Solar-Sector Thrifting Like gold, silver is sensitive to Fed policy. However, where supply and demand meet, physical markets for silver are more tightened. The Silver Institute is expecting 2026 to represent a sixth straight annual deficit of 46.3 million ounces, according to its April World Silver Survey 2026, with total demand forecast to fall 2% to 1.11 billion ounces.
The decline in fabrication demand, however, is expected to be partly offset by stronger investment. Industrial demand is forecast to fall 3%, while coin and net bar demand is expected to jump 18%. It’s reported that solar manufacturers are accelerating thrifting and substitution away from silver in photovoltaic applications.
The Silver Institute expects grid expansion, and growing AI data centers and automotive electronics as other positive growth areas for silver demand.
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Gold Technical Analysis: XAU/USD Holds $4,112 as $4,160 Remains the First Recovery Barrier
Gold – Chart Gold is currently trading at approximately $4,142 on the 2-hour chart and what I find interesting is that the price is still holding above the $4,112 support area after another rejection from the 4,160-4,190 resistance area. The larger trend is still considered bearish as gold is still below both the moving averages and the descending trendline. Recent bounces have produced lower highs.
The first area of resistance I am looking at is $4,160. A clear break above this area would be eye opening and could target the next resistance areas at $4,190 and $4,214 and $4,238. Support would come in at $4,112 first, with $4,073 and $4,030 becoming more significant if sellers regain control.
RSI is also giving a bearish signal as it is still below the 50 center line. A recovery above $4,214 would put more weight behind the bullish case and a break below $4,112 would give a more bearish edge.
Silver Technical Analysis: XAG/USD Stays Below $61.72 as $59.96 Support Remains Critical
Silver – Chart Silver is currently around $60.84 on the 2-hour chart, having recently pulled back from a challenge of the $61.72 resistance area. Right now, price is below the moving averages and a bearish trendline, and also within the lower range of a larger bearish structure.
I’m looking for a break above $61.72 for some initial upside toward $63.06 and $65.09. Support is likely to come in at the $60 area and below it at $59.96, with additional support possible at $58.94 and $57.64.
RSI is in the lower range, and so momentum may be slightly in favor of the sell-side. I’m generally bearish below the $61.72 resistance area and the bearish trendline. A break above $63.06 would change that, and a move below $59.96 would put the focus on $58.94.
Gold (XAU) and silver (XAG) prices edge lower in early Asian trading on Wednesday. Gold trades near $4,150 an ounce while silver consolidates around $60.90. The correction in the US dollar on Tuesday supported the recovery in metals but traders remain cautious ahead of the September meeting minutes later today.
The market now expects 20.5% chance of a rate hike in October. But the probability of a December increase remains much higher. The drop in expectations for a rate hike in October supports the metal, but further rate hikes could still limit demand for both metals.
Oil prices also rebounded on Wednesday, with Brent oil rising over $104 a barrel. A developing storm threatens oil facilities in the US Gulf, while renewed attacks in the Middle East keep traders concerned about supply. The high energy prices could add to inflation and strengthen the case for further tightening.
Traders will watch the Fed minutes for clues about how officials weigh these risks. In my view, gold and silver remain vulnerable if the rise in oil prices revives the expectations for higher interest rates.
Gold Price Forecast: $4,100 Support at Risk The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price has been consolidating at the edge of the triangle and remains under bearish pressure. A break below $4,100 will likely open the way for a quick drop towards the $4,000 area.
But a recovery above $4,300 is required to initiate a rebound towards the 200-day SMA at $4,500. The resistance of the triangle now intersects with the 200-day SMA at $4,530. A break above this level will likely open the way for a strong rally towards the $5,000 region. The RSI remains below the midline and continues to drop, which suggests bearish pressure in the short term.
The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows negative price action below $4,300. The price is now consolidating around $4,100. A break below this level will likely trigger a strong drop towards the $4,000 area. The RSI on the 4-hour chart also remains below the midline, which suggests negative price action in the short term.
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See all Gold forecasts Silver Price Forecast: Break Below $60 Could Expose $55 The daily chart for spot silver also shows a negative price structure below the $72 area. The price failed multiple times in August to break above $68. The RSI remains below the midline, which increases the likelihood of further downside.
A recovery above $64 is required to initiate a rally towards the $72 area. However, the strong US dollar and positive momentum in Treasury yields suggest negative price action in the short term.
A break below $60 will likely push spot silver prices towards the $55 area, but a recovery above $64 is required to push the prices back to $72.
The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows consolidation between $60 and $62.60 in the short term. However, the development of bearish price action below $72 increases the possibility of a breakdown below $60. A break below $60 will open the way for a further drop towards the $55 area.
What to Watch Next for Gold and Silver Traders will watch the Fed minutes for clues about further rate hikes. A strong US dollar could pressure the metals while the increase in oil prices may keep inflation concerns alive. The key support level for gold remains at $4,100. A break below this level could bring $4,000 into view, but a recovery above $4,300 would improve the outlook.
Silver faces a similar test at $60. A break below this level may open the way toward $55. Buyers need to push silver above $64 to support a rebound towards $72. Until both metals regain these resistance levels, the risk of another drop is high.
Read more: Gold and Silver Rebound Faces Risk of a Deeper Drop
