Track market-moving stories before they get noisy

A Nasdaq-listed company that used to be called Helius Medical Technologies now carries a strategic seal of approval from the Hong Kong government.

Solana Company (NASDAQ: HSDT) has been recognized as a strategic enterprise by Hong Kong’s Office for Attracting Strategic Enterprises, better known as OASES. Alongside that designation, the firm has opened an office in the city to act as its Asia-Pacific headquarters.

The detail that stands out: Solana Company was the only blockchain infrastructure firm in the 2026 OASES batch.

What Solana Company is building in Hong Kong
The new Hong Kong office will serve as the executive hub for the company’s operations across the Asia-Pacific region.

The centerpiece of that plan is something the company calls the Pacific Backbone. It is an initiative to develop low-latency infrastructure linking four major financial centers: Hong Kong, Seoul, Tokyo, and Singapore.

The Pacific Backbone is aimed at staking and validation services. On a proof-of-stake blockchain like Solana, validators are the operators who process transactions and keep the network honest. Staking is how token holders put their coins to work backing those validators, typically in exchange for rewards.

The company is also expanding its validator operations. That includes partnerships with the Jito Foundation, a name familiar to anyone who follows Solana’s staking ecosystem.

On the balance sheet side, Solana Company holds more than 2.2 million SOL tokens.

Joseph Chee, the company’s Chairman and CEO, pointed to Hong Kong’s rapid progress on digital assets as a key reason for the move. He also stressed the city’s standing as a global financial center.

The firm says its broader goal is to build institutional engagement within compliant frameworks.

From Helius Medical to a SOL treasury
The company shifted its focus to a Solana-centric strategy in 2025. The rebrand to Solana Company came in September 2025. It followed a funding round that exceeded $500 million.

What this means for Solana Company and the region
As the only blockchain infrastructure firm in the 2026 OASES batch, Solana Company has a head start on positioning itself as a go-to partner for compliant Solana staking in Hong Kong.

The milestones worth tracking are concrete. Watch for progress updates on the Pacific Backbone, new validator partnerships beyond the Jito Foundation, and any announced institutional clients in Hong Kong.

Disclosure: This article was edited by John Chen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

If Bitcoin drops below $80,000, total long position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $692 million.

According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin falls below $80,000, the total long liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will reach $692 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks through $83,000, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will hit $1.025 billion. BlockBeats Note: Liquidation charts do not display the exact number of pending liquidations or the exact value of liquidated contracts. The bars on these charts actually represent the relative importance (intensity) of each liquidation cluster compared to adjacent clusters. Therefore, the liquidation chart shows the degree of impact when the underlying asset’s price reaches a specific level. A higher "liquidation bar" indicates that once the price hits that level, it will trigger a stronger reaction due to liquidity waves.

4 hours ago

Bitcoin falls below $81,000, with a 4.3% drop in the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin fell below $81,000, with a 4.3% decline in the past 24 hours.

4 hours ago

Pump.fun launches EVM limit orders, supporting take-profit and stop-loss functions.

Meme coin launch platform Pump.fun announced the launch of its EVM limit order functionality, claiming it is the first social trading application to offer take-profit and stop-loss features. The feature currently covers Robinhood, BNB Chain, Base, HyperEVM, Arc, and Ink, with more chains set to be integrated gradually.

4 hours ago

a16z Frontier has officially confirmed its continued focus on the crypto space, expanding its investment scope to include frontier technology startups.

a16z General Partner Chris Dixon has officially published an announcement renaming a16z crypto to a16z Frontier, expanding its investment scope from crypto startups to a broader set of frontier technology startups—those building new technologies, opening up new markets, and taking years to mature. Dixon emphasized this is a scope expansion, not a pivot; the team will continue investing in crypto and related businesses while advocating for reasonable crypto regulation. Dixon noted that as blockchain gains wider adoption, Wall Street and fintech firms have regularly launched on-chain products, making the "crypto company" label less significant. Companies should be defined by their core business activities, not the technology they employ. His remarks also touch on the ongoing AI wave: beyond using AI to speed up and enhance existing work, focus is on native new use cases emerging from AI, full-stack startups integrating hardware, software and services, and new networks connecting humans and intelligent agents. Dixon believes blockchain will still play a critical role in this space, serving as a fast, low-cost, global, programmable financial infrastructure for the internet. Stablecoins are becoming a standard tool for fintech firms and institutions, and can also support machine-to-machine transactions and the cold start of new networks. He will lead the fund alongside firm founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, as well as general partners Eddy Lazzarin and Guy Wuollet. The operating team will continue supporting current and future portfolio companies in areas including regulation, market entry, talent, marketing and technology R&D.

4 hours ago

New York State Department of Financial Services issues alert over PHP vulnerability.

New York State Department of Financial Services (NYDFS) has issued alerts regarding two critical PHP vulnerabilities, urging regulated entities to promptly identify and remediate the vulnerabilities that are already being exploited.

4 hours ago

GMGN Co-founder: The self-developed cross-chain bridge is undergoing a small-scale volume test, and the APP will soon support buying multi-chain tokens with USDC.

GMGN co-founder Haze announced in a post that the project’s self-developed cross-chain bridge is currently undergoing small-scale volume testing, and will uphold its long-standing reputation for fast, secure, and stable transactions. Haze added that users will soon be able to buy any token across multiple blockchains using USDC through the GMGN app.

4 hours ago

TL;DR: Anza says Alpenglow activated on Solana mainnet-beta on October 21. The consensus change targets roughly 150-millisecond finality; further networking and post-quantum improvements remain planned work.

Solana has replaced the consensus protocol it used from launch, bringing a long-discussed change in transaction finality onto the live network.

Core engineering firm Anza announced the Alpenglow activation at slot 459,653,000, around 14:00 UTC on Wednesday. According to the company, validators retired TowerBFT during the transition without moving activity to a separate chain.

Finality Is The Point Of The Upgrade
Anza describes the design as reducing the path to finality from approximately 12.8 seconds to around 150 milliseconds. That is the developer’s stated performance target, not a network-wide latency measurement independently reproduced for this article.

Finality concerns when a transaction can be treated as irreversible under the network’s consensus rules. It is different from the moment a wallet displays a transaction or an application gives a user an initial confirmation.

That difference is particularly relevant to payments and trading. An interface can appear responsive before the recipient is willing to treat the transfer as settled. Shortening that second interval can reduce the period in which an exchange, merchant or application waits before acting on a payment.

It does not make every application instant. Wallet signing, internet connections, transaction inclusion and the application’s own checks still contribute to the time a user experiences. Nor does a lower finality target, by itself, establish higher transaction throughput.

More Changes Remain On The Roadmap
Anza lists Rotor, geographically aware leader rotation and the post-quantum research design Quantumglow as further developments, with no committed release dates in the announcement.

Their inclusion should not blur the scope of Wednesday’s event. Alpenglow’s activation is the completed milestone being reported; the additional work describes where the engineering team wants to take the system next.

For applications built on Solana, the practical question now is how the new consensus behaves under real traffic and varying network conditions. Operational evidence will determine how closely users’ settlement experience matches the design’s headline speed.

Solana Mobile’s dApp Store passes 1,500 apps

Securitize shares slide 38% since it put Apple and Nvidia stock on Solana

Solana has promoted Quantumglow, a proposed post-quantum adaptation of Alpenglow designed to protect consensus while preserving the network’s fast finality.

Summary

Quantumglow proposes changes to validator signatures and block authentication without announcing a deployment date. Anza published the underlying research in July, before Solana’s latest video explainer. Alpenglow’s mainnet activation is separate from the proposed post-quantum changes to its cryptography. Bitcoin’s BIP-360 targets exposed public keys, with additional signatures needed for more complete protection. Solana Developers described the proposal in an Oct. 22 video post, presenting it as a way to secure agreement between validators against quantum attacks. Solana’s main account shared the explainer and said the network “has been early in quantum readiness and remains ahead in its preparation.”

What would Solana’s consensus look like in a post-quantum world?

Meet Quantumglow: a proposed adaptation of Alpenglow that aims to protect consensus while preserving fast finality.@jacobvcreech and @qkniep explain how it works. Full video below👇 pic.twitter.com/G005a4KcSI

— Solana Developers (@solana_devs) October 22, 2026 Neither announcement supplied an activation date or identified a Quantumglow-specific Solana Improvement Document, known as a SIMD. The developer post described an adaptation under proposal, without announcing a deployed security upgrade.

The research predates the latest explainer. Anza published its Quantumglow overview on July 30, naming Quentin Kniep, Kobi Sliwinski and Roger Wattenhofer as its authors and directing readers to Section 5 of the updated Alpenglow whitepaper.

Quantumglow changes how validators authenticate agreement Anza’s July overview identifies two obstacles to replacing Alpenglow’s existing cryptography. Post-quantum signatures take more space, while the compact signature aggregation used to prove validator agreement has no comparable ready replacement under the researchers’ requirements.

The authors propose Ax, short for Alpenglow XMSS, a hash-based signature scheme tailored to the protocol. Validators would exchange and cache one-time public-key material ahead of use, reducing the information that must accompany later signatures.

For block authentication, Anza describes a signed commitment covering the block payload, supported by authenticated communication channels. Its design removes the need to attach a large post-quantum signature to every piece of block data.

The accompanying distributed-quorum-signature research explains the second change. Kniep, Jakub Sliwinski and Wattenhofer describe moving certificates from messages sent across the network to events recorded locally after a node gathers enough evidence.

Their paper, submitted July 20, uses ordinary signatures and an approval-broadcast mechanism. It separates evidence supporting safety from evidence supporting liveness, the protocol’s ability to keep making progress.

The researchers say each message remains a constant size regardless of node count, although total communication grows quadratically. Their performance claim concerns the proposed design and its stated assumptions, without establishing a measured mainnet result.

Solana’s Alpenglow rollout has a separate activation record Solana Foundation’s upgrade page identifies Alpenglow as live on mainnet following activation in epoch 1064 on Oct. 21. The Foundation lists approximately 150 milliseconds as its finality target, compared with 12.8 seconds for TowerBFT.

The Foundation records Alpenglow consensus beginning at slot 459,653,000, after a genesis block certified by votes from 446 of 654 validators. Its documentation separates the deployed Votor voting system from Rotor, a data-distribution component reserved for a later release.

Before that handoff, crypto.news previously reported the planned consensus migration and its operator requirements. The Oct. 19 coverage documented the need for compatible validator software and sufficient vote-account funding.

SIMD-0326 specifies the Votor portions of Alpenglow and references version 1.1 of its whitepaper. The proposal explicitly leaves Rotor for a separate SIMD, showing that the original consensus specification does not cover every component discussed in subsequent research.

Solana Foundation says Alpenglow leaves transaction execution, programs, and transaction fee mechanics unchanged. Its migration guidance states that ordinary users do not need to change how they sign, send, or approve transactions.

The removal of on-chain votes creates separate changes for analytics services. As detailed in Oct. 20 coverage of vote-transaction removal, the Foundation instructs explorers to reset metrics that counted validator votes alongside user transactions.

Wallet protection requires work beyond consensus Anza’s April 27 security assessment identifies distinct quantum vulnerabilities in accounts, block propagation, consensus, and user-defined programs. Max Resnick and Sam Kim warn that an attacker capable of breaking Ed25519 could forge account signatures, while forged consensus votes could support conflicting confirmations.

Their checklist calls for work on account migration, transaction signature verification, networking and program-level cryptographic tools. The assessment makes no commitment to a single post-quantum signature scheme.

Early Falcon implementations formed another part of that preparation. April 28 coverage documented Anza and Firedancer testing the signature technology, with the teams describing it as an option for possible future activation.

Anza’s assessment describes a prototype migration proof that binds an existing account to a new post-quantum public key. The authors distinguish such account migration from optional vault programs, which cannot independently secure consensus, networking, or every application using vulnerable signatures.

Bitcoin’s BIP-360 addresses exposed keys Bitcoin’s BIP-360 specification proposes Pay-to-Merkle-Root outputs through a soft fork, removing the key-path spending option used by Taproot. Its authors describe protection against attacks on public keys exposed for long periods.

The draft explicitly separates that protection from attacks conducted while a spending transaction waits for confirmation. Its authors say protection against those shorter exposures may require post-quantum signatures through a separate proposal.

BIP-360’s motivation describes quantum key recovery as deriving a private key from a public key by breaking the discrete logarithm assumption. The authors say the timing and eventual viability of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer remain unclear. Their proposal does not set a date when such an attack becomes practical or establish that present hardware can perform it.

The repository lists BIP-360 as a draft authored by Hunter Beast, Ethan Heilman, and Isabel Foxen Duke. Its abstract states that the proposed output type retains script-tree functionality while removing the quantum-vulnerable key-path spend.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management has brought two tokenized money market funds, MONY and JLTXX, to Solana for qualified U.S. investors through its Morgan Money platform.

Summary

MONY and JLTXX give qualified U.S. investors access to tokenized fund shares on Solana.
MONY’s existing FAQ lists a $1 million initial investment minimum and offchain shareholder records.
JLTXX’s May prospectus requires approved wallet addresses for purchases, redemptions and token transfers.
BlackRock and Franklin Templeton brought their tokenized funds to Solana in 2025.

J.P. Morgan Asset Management said investors can subscribe and redeem through Morgan Money, with token balances sent to their blockchain addresses.

“Our clients operate across more than one network, and their liquidity should too,” said Paul Przybylski, the firm’s global head of product, digital and tokenized assets.

JPMorgan’s MONY fund carries a $1 million entry minimum
JPMorgan’s MONY FAQ lists an initial investment minimum of $1 million and fees of 16 basis points. The document describes a private placement fund domiciled in the British Virgin Islands, with investor onboarding subject to anti-money laundering and know-your-customer checks.

The FAQ says MONY holds U.S. Treasury securities and Treasury-backed repurchase agreements. Its investment guidelines seek a stable $1 net asset value, with Treasury purchases limited to securities with no more than 93 days remaining or issued with maturities of 93 days or less.

Although MONY intends to follow investment guidelines for government money market funds, JPMorgan’s FAQ says the private vehicle is not subject to Rule 2a-7. The document identifies SS&C as the transfer agent and says the official shareholder records remain offchain.

Earlier coverage documented JPMorgan’s $100 million seed investment when MONY launched on Ethereum in December 2025. As crypto.news previously reported, the fund formed part of the bank’s move into public blockchain infrastructure through its Kinexys business.

JPMorgan’s FAQ says investors need their own blockchain address to hold MONY tokens. It permits direct token interactions for transfers and transaction requests, while describing peer-to-peer transfers as restricted to clients. The document predates the Solana expansion and does not establish every operational detail of the new deployment.

The December report described institutional cash management as the product’s intended use. Its $100 million figure referred to initial internal capital, not the amount now held on Solana or MONY’s current total assets.

JLTXX’s filing sets out approved-wallet controls
JPMorgan’s JLTXX filing in May described a registered government money market fund built for stablecoin reserve management. The prospectus dated May 13 listed Ethereum as its only available public network at that time and anticipated support for other blockchains.

The same document required approved addresses before investors could buy, redeem or transfer token balances. Its blockchain framework uses an allow list, restricting transactions to participants approved by the fund.

JLTXX’s prospectus says the transfer agent’s investor register determines legal share ownership. Token balances are intended to correspond to shares, but the document warns that the two records may temporarily differ when blockchain instructions arrive outside business days.

The filing lists a $1 million opening minimum, with no minimum for subsequent purchases, and permits investment minimum waivers. Annual operating expenses after waivers and reimbursements are listed at 0.16%, with those arrangements scheduled through June 30, 2028.

A separate section describes optional services for converting USDC into dollars before purchases and converting redemption proceeds back into USDC. The May coverage noted that Circle is not affiliated with the fund, its adviser or Kinexys.

JPMorgan’s Oct. 22 release describes JLTXX as designed to support stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act. It does not disclose current assets for either fund or announce a decentralized lending integration.

BlackRock brought BUIDL to Solana in March 2025
BlackRock’s BUIDL expansion to Solana occurred in March 2025 through Securitize, giving the fund a seventh supported network at the time. The other six were Ethereum, Aptos, Arbitrum, Optimism, Avalanche, Polygon.

Securitize’s launch announcement described a new Solana share class for the BlackRock USD Institutional Digital Liquidity Fund. The company said BUIDL invests in cash, U.S. Treasury bills and repurchase agreements.

The March coverage identified Copper, Anchorage Digital and Fireblocks among BUIDL’s custody providers. It placed the fund’s value at $1.7 billion at that point, a historical figure covering the product rather than its Solana deployment alone.

Franklin’s BENJI uses blockchain-integrated ownership records
Franklin Templeton added Solana support in February 2025 for its Franklin OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund. The earlier deployment report listed Stellar as its original network, followed by expansions across Aptos, Ethereum, Avalanche, Arbitrum, Base and Polygon.

Franklin’s current Benji platform describes one BENJI token as representing one share of the fund, which trades under the FOBXX ticker. Its transfer agent maintains the official ownership record through a proprietary system integrated with public blockchains.

The company’s fund page says at least 99.5% of assets go into government securities, cash and fully collateralized repurchase agreements. It lists daily dividend frequency and an April 6, 2021, inception date.

Effective May 18, 2026, Franklin’s fund page lists Western Asset Management as a new sub-adviser responsible for day-to-day portfolio management. The same notice says the fund normally calculates net asset value hourly from 8 a.m. Eastern until its business-day close and intends to declare and reinvest income dividends daily.

Franklin’s platform timeline records the launch of peer-to-peer transfers for retail investors through its redesigned mobile app in May 2025.

Table of contents

Last Updated: October 22, 2026

Shiba Inu (SHIB) traded near $0.0000050 on October 22, 2026, according to CoinMarketCap, about 28% below where it started the year and 94% below its record of $0.00008845, set on October 28, 2021. Our base case puts SHIB at $0.0000045 to $0.0000060 at the end of 2026, with a bull case of $0.0000075 to $0.0000090 and a bear case near $0.0000040, the level of its June low. None of the five forecasting models we reviewed puts SHIB anywhere near one cent, and the most optimistic of them does not reach $0.0001 before 2035.

This page replaces our earlier Shiba Inu forecast. Since 2024, SHIB has lost most of its value: it peaked near $0.0000457 in March 2024, started 2025 near $0.0000212, ended the year near $0.0000069 and fell to about $0.0000041 on June 25, 2026. Its burns amount to a few thousand dollars a month, no spot SHIB ETF exists, and the first multi-token crypto ETF from T. Rowe Price launched without it. The new story in October is distribution: SHIB went live on Solana on October 4.

What Is Shiba Inu? Shiba Inu was launched in August 2020 by an anonymous developer known as Ryoshi as an Ethereum-based meme token and a deliberate rival to Dogecoin. Its total supply was set at 1 quadrillion tokens, half of which was sent to Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin. In May 2021, Buterin burned about 410 trillion of them by sending them to a dead address and donated most of the rest, which is why roughly 41% of the original supply is now out of circulation.

The project has since grown into an ecosystem with two other tokens, BONE and LEASH, a decentralized exchange called ShibaSwap and Shibarium, a layer-2 network that launched in August 2023 to cut transaction costs. Unlike Dogecoin, SHIB has no ongoing issuance: its supply only shrinks when tokens are burned. In practice, almost all of the burned supply comes from Buterin’s 2021 burn, and community burns since then have been tiny by comparison.

SHIB Market Data: October 2026 MetricValuePrice~$0.0000050Market Cap~$2.99 billion (31st largest)Circulating Supply~589 trillion SHIBTotal Burned~410.8 trillion SHIB (41% of the original supply)Burned in the Past 30 Days~673 million SHIB (about $3,800)All-Time High$0.00008845 (October 28, 2021)Distance From All-Time HighAbout -94%2025 PerformanceAbout -67% ($0.0000212 to $0.0000069)2026 So FarAbout -28%, range ~$0.0000041 to ~$0.0000101US Spot SHIB ETFsNone Sources: CoinMarketCap price and supply data on October 22, 2026; Shibburn burn data; Binance daily price history.

For the live quote and daily levels, see our Shiba Inu price page.

Shiba Inu Price History: From a Meme to $0.00008845 SHIB traded for tiny fractions of a cent through its first months. Its defining run came in 2021: after listings on major exchanges in May, the token climbed to its all-time high of $0.00008845 on October 28, 2021, at the height of that year’s meme coin mania. The 2022 bear market took it to about $0.0000071 on June 18, 2022, and it bottomed near $0.0000054 in June 2023.

The last cycle was smaller. SHIB rallied from about $0.0000083 in early January 2024 to about $0.0000457 on March 5, 2024, then faded through the rest of the year and started 2025 near $0.0000212. It peaked at about $0.0000250 in January 2025 and ended the year near $0.0000069, a loss of roughly 67%. In 2026 it touched about $0.0000101 on January 5 before sliding to about $0.0000041 on June 25, its lowest price since the token’s 2021 breakout.

PeriodKey PriceOctober 28, 2021$0.00008845 (all-time high)June 18, 2022~$0.0000071 (bear market low)June 10, 2023~$0.0000054 (cycle low)March 5, 2024~$0.0000457 (last cycle high)January 18, 2025~$0.0000250 (2025 high)December 31, 2025~$0.0000069 (2025 close)January 5, 2026~$0.0000101 (2026 high)June 25, 2026~$0.0000041 (2026 low so far)October 22, 2026~$0.0000050 Dates and levels are based on Binance SHIB/USDT daily data.

Shiba Inu in 2026: Shibarium, Burns and Solana Shibarium. The network has had to rebuild trust since a flash-loan attack on its bridge in September 2025 drained about $2.4 million in assets. Developers rolled out further node and configuration fixes in September 2026, but Shibarium has not yet become a meaningful source of demand for SHIB.

Burns. The burn mechanism is often cited as SHIB’s path to higher prices, but the numbers are small. Shibburn data show about 673 million SHIB burned in the past 30 days, worth about $3,800, which is roughly 0.0001% of the circulating supply. Burns have also slowed for a technical reason: ShibTorch, the tool that burns SHIB using Shibarium gas fees, is under maintenance because the Shibarium bridge route it relies on is paused, U.Today reported on October 22. Our analysis of SHIB’s burn rate explains why the headline percentage changes say little about supply.

Solana. SHIB went live on Solana on October 4, 2026, through the Sunrise token gateway, with the official Shiba Inu and Solana accounts confirming the listing and trading opening on apps including Jupiter, Raydium and Phantom. By October 16, about 42.5 billion SHIB, worth roughly $218,000, had moved to Solana, a tiny share of supply but a new route into one of crypto’s most active trading networks.

ETFs. There is no US spot SHIB ETF, and no major issuer has filed for one. T. Rowe Price’s Active Crypto ETF (TKNZ), which launched on NYSE Arca on July 16, 2026, can hold a range of eligible tokens, but SHIB was not among its holdings at launch, when Dogecoin, at about 1.3% of the fund, was its only meme coin.

Shiba Inu Price Predictions Compared: Models and Analysts Banks and major research firms do not publish SHIB price targets, so forecasts come from algorithmic models and technical analysts. No prediction market currently offers a long-dated SHIB contract.

SourceForecastDateCoinCodex2026 range ~$0.0000045 to $0.0000054; 2030 range ~$0.0000029 to $0.0000036; “will not reach $0.01”October 20, 2026Changelly2026 average ~$0.0000048; 2030 average ~$0.0000032October 21, 2026CoinLore2026 base ~$0.0000028; 2030 base ~$0.0000097, bull ~$0.000047; 2040 bull ~$0.00021October 21, 2026Gate2026 average ~$0.0000052; 2030 range ~$0.0000077 to $0.0000093October 2026Telegaon2026 range ~$0.0000075 to $0.000020; 2030 range ~$0.000019 to $0.000055October 3, 2026U.Today (technical analysis)Lost support at the 100-day EMA near $0.00000528; next supports near $0.0000047, $0.0000044 and $0.0000041October 15, 2026 The models disagree on direction but agree on scale. CoinCodex and Changelly expect SHIB to drift lower into 2029 before recovering, while Telegaon, the most optimistic and the least recently updated, starts its 2026 range above today’s price. Even Telegaon’s highest figure for 2050, about $0.00035, is far below one cent.

YearBear CaseBase CaseBull CaseEnd of 2026$0.0000040$0.0000045 to $0.0000060$0.0000075 to $0.00000902027$0.0000025$0.0000045$0.0000272028$0.0000032$0.0000063$0.0000372030$0.0000028$0.0000079$0.0000552035$0.0000044$0.000032$0.000112040$0.0000083$0.000041$0.00021 How this table is built: the 2026 row is our own scenario analysis, based on current chart levels, burn data and the year’s trading range. Rows for 2027 to 2040 summarize five forecasting models (CoinCodex, Changelly, CoinLore, Telegaon and Gate) as of October 2026: the bear case is the lowest published low, the base case is the median of their average or base-case figures, and the bull case is the highest published high. Gate does not publish 2035 and 2040 figures, and CoinCodex does not publish 2035 figures. Bull figures come from Telegaon (2027, 2030 and 2035) and CoinLore (2028 and 2040). Speculative, not financial advice.

Shiba Inu Price Prediction 2026 SHIB enters the final ten weeks of 2026 near $0.0000050, below its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, which sit near $0.0000054 and $0.0000052 on Binance daily closes. The token lost its 100-day exponential moving average, now near $0.0000053, in mid-October. The first support is the October 18 low near $0.0000048, and the June low of about $0.0000041 is the level that matters most for the rest of the year.

Shiba Inu Price Prediction for the End of 2026 Base case ($0.0000045 to $0.0000060): SHIB follows Bitcoin sideways into the Federal Reserve’s October 28 decision and the year-end, holding above its June low. This range covers CoinCodex’s December projection of about $0.0000048 and Gate’s 2026 average of about $0.0000052.

Bull case ($0.0000075 to $0.0000090): a Bitcoin recovery toward $100,000 revives meme coin trading, and new demand through Solana adds to it. That would mean a gain of roughly 50% to 80%, still below SHIB’s January high of about $0.0000101.

Bear case ($0.0000040): Bitcoin loses its October lows, meme coins sell off again and SHIB breaks below its June 25 low of about $0.0000041, which would put it at levels not seen since the 2021 breakout.

Shiba Inu Price Prediction 2027 The models point to a flat 2027. CoinCodex sees SHIB averaging about $0.0000045 over the year, Changelly about $0.0000043 and CoinLore about $0.0000042 in its base case, while Gate is higher at about $0.0000056. The median base case of about $0.0000045 sits below today’s price, and only Telegaon, at up to about $0.000027, expects a strong year.

Shiba Inu Price Prediction 2028 2028 is when the models start to diverge. Bitcoin’s next halving is expected that year, and past SHIB rallies have come during the late stages of Bitcoin’s cycle. CoinLore’s base case is about $0.0000063 and Gate’s average about $0.0000065, while CoinCodex and Changelly stay near $0.0000035 to $0.0000036. The highest published figure, CoinLore’s bull case of about $0.0000365, would still leave SHIB more than 50% below its 2021 record.

Shiba Inu Price Prediction 2030 For 2030, the median base case is about $0.0000079, led by Gate’s average of about $0.0000079 and CoinLore’s base case of about $0.0000097, while Changelly and CoinCodex stay near $0.0000032 and $0.0000033. Telegaon’s range of $0.000019 to $0.000055 is the most optimistic, and even its top end is about 38% below the 2021 high. At today’s supply, a price of $0.000055 would mean a market value of about $32 billion.

Shiba Inu Price Prediction 2035 and 2040 Long-range figures are speculative. For 2035, the median base case of three models is about $0.000032, and the range runs from Changelly’s low of about $0.0000044 to Telegaon’s high of about $0.00011, the first figure in any model above $0.0001. For 2040, the median base case of four models is about $0.000041, CoinLore’s base case is about $0.000073 and its bull case about $0.00021, while CoinCodex and Changelly stay near $0.000009.

Will Shiba Inu Reach 1 Cent? No model we reviewed expects it, and the math explains why. At today’s supply of about 589 trillion tokens, one cent would value SHIB at about $5.9 trillion, more than twice the entire crypto market. Our dedicated analysis, Will Shiba Inu reach 1 cent?, covers the market cap math, what burns can and cannot do and the more realistic price milestones.

Key Factors Driving Shiba Inu Price in 2026 to 2030 Bitcoin’s direction and cycle. SHIB has followed Bitcoin with much higher volatility in every cycle. A recovery in Bitcoin, which trades near $81,600 after peaking at $126,198 in October 2025, is the first condition for any SHIB rally; see our Bitcoin price prediction.

Meme coin sentiment. SHIB’s biggest moves came when retail speculation peaked. Its market value of about $3 billion is roughly a tenth of a meme coin sector worth about $29 billion, according to CoinGecko, and it competes for that money with Dogecoin and newer tokens; see our Dogecoin price prediction for the sector leader.

Supply and burns. With about 589 trillion tokens in circulation and burns of under a billion a month, supply is effectively fixed. Burns would need to rise by many orders of magnitude to change the price picture.

Ecosystem activity. Shibarium usage, the Solana expansion and the team’s other projects could give SHIB more uses, but none of them has yet turned into steady demand for SHIB. Our report on what Shiba Inu is building looks at the roadmap.

Institutional access. No spot SHIB ETF exists, and the one multi-token active ETF that could hold it did not include SHIB at launch. Inclusion in a regulated fund would be a first for SHIB.

Macro conditions. Higher interest rates weigh on speculative assets. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September and meets again on October 28.

Bull Case vs. Bear Case Bull CaseBear CaseBitcoin sets new records after the 2028 halving and meme coin speculation returnsBitcoin stays in a range or falls further, and meme coins keep losing shareSolana access and exchange listings bring new buyersNew buyers favor newer meme coins over SHIBShibarium activity recovers and burns rise meaningfullyShibarium stays quiet and burns remain negligibleAn ETF adds SHIB or an issuer files for a spot SHIB fundSHIB stays outside regulated fundsSHIB retakes $0.0000075 to $0.0000090 by year-end and $0.00002 or more in the next cycleSHIB breaks its June low and trades toward $0.0000030 to $0.0000040 Where to Buy Shiba Inu Shiba Inu is available on major exchanges including Binance, Coinbase, Kraken, KuCoin, Gate, OKX and Bybit, and it can be held in Ethereum-compatible wallets or, since October, traded on Solana apps such as Jupiter and Phantom. Check the token address carefully on Solana, where several other tokens use the SHIB ticker. Our guide to where to buy Shiba Inu compares the options, and our crypto market today page tracks daily price levels.

Data sources: CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko (price, supply, market capitalization and sector data), Shibburn (burn data), U.Today (ShibTorch status), Binance daily data (price history and moving averages), Solana Compass and CoinMarketCap (Solana launch and bridge data), The Block and Crypto Briefing (ETF holdings), U.Today (technical analysis), and the published forecasts of CoinCodex, Changelly, CoinLore, Telegaon and Gate, as of October 22, 2026.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency markets are volatile; always do your own research before investing.

Related reading: Will Shiba Inu Reach 1 Cent? The Math, the Burns and the Odds.

Frequently Asked Questions What is the Shiba Inu price prediction for 2026?
Our base case puts Shiba Inu at $0.0000045 to $0.0000060 at the end of 2026, with a bull case of $0.0000075 to $0.0000090 and a bear case near $0.0000040, the level of its June low. SHIB trades near $0.0000050 on October 22. CoinCodex projects about $0.0000048 for December, and Gate’s 2026 average is about $0.0000052.

What will Shiba Inu be worth in 2030?
Most models keep SHIB well below its 2021 record in 2030. Across five forecasting models we reviewed, the median base case for 2030 is about $0.0000079, with Gate near $0.0000079, CoinLore near $0.0000097 and Changelly near $0.0000032. Only Telegaon, last updated on October 3, sees up to about $0.000055, which would still be below the 2021 high.

Will Shiba Inu reach 1 cent?
Almost certainly not at today’s supply. SHIB would need to gain about 200,000% from about $0.0000050, and one cent would value it at about $5.9 trillion, more than twice the entire crypto market. None of the five models we reviewed projects one cent, and CoinCodex states directly that SHIB will not reach $0.01. Burns are far too small to change that.

Can Shiba Inu reach $0.001?
Not on any published model. At about 589 trillion tokens, $0.001 would mean a market value of about $589 billion, about twice Ethereum’s current value and enough to make SHIB the second-largest cryptocurrency. The highest figure in any model we reviewed is Telegaon’s 2050 maximum of about $0.00035, roughly a third of that level.

What is Shiba Inu’s all-time high?
Shiba Inu’s all-time high is $0.00008845, set on October 28, 2021, during that year’s meme coin mania. In the last cycle it peaked at about $0.0000457 in March 2024, and its 2026 high so far is about $0.0000101 in early January. At about $0.0000050 in October 2026, SHIB trades roughly 94% below its record.

How much SHIB has been burned?
About 410.8 trillion SHIB, or 41% of the original 1 quadrillion supply, has been burned, according to Shibburn. Almost all of it came from Vitalik Buterin’s burn in May 2021. Recent burns are tiny: about 673 million SHIB in the past 30 days, worth roughly $3,800, or about 0.0001% of the circulating supply of roughly 589 trillion tokens.

Is there a Shiba Inu ETF?
Not yet. No spot SHIB ETF trades in the US, and no major issuer has filed for one. T. Rowe Price’s Active Crypto ETF (TKNZ), launched on July 16, 2026, can buy a range of eligible tokens, but SHIB was not among its holdings at launch, when Dogecoin was its only meme coin at about 1.3% of the fund.

Why did Shiba Inu fall in 2025 and 2026?
SHIB followed Bitcoin lower after Bitcoin peaked at $126,198 in October 2025, and it fell harder, as meme coins usually do. Retail speculation moved to newer meme coins, a $2.4 million bridge exploit in September 2025 hurt confidence in Shibarium, and burns stayed negligible. SHIB lost about 67% in 2025 and another 28% so far in 2026.

Is Shiba Inu a good investment?
Shiba Inu is a high-risk, speculative asset whose price depends mainly on Bitcoin’s direction and meme coin sentiment rather than on cash flows or usage. It trades about 94% below its 2021 high, its burn mechanism has little effect on supply, and its ecosystem activity is modest. It suits only investors who can tolerate large swings and losses. This is not financial advice.

Table of contents

Last Updated: October 22, 2026

Shiba Inu (SHIB) is trading at about $0.0000050 in October 2026, which means it would need to rise roughly 2,000 times, a gain of about 200,000%, to reach one cent. At today’s supply of about 589 trillion tokens, a one-cent SHIB would be worth about $5.9 trillion, more than twice the value of the entire crypto market. That is why none of the forecasting models we reviewed expects it, and why the question for SHIB holders is really about supply, not price.

This article gives you the honest answer, backed by the market cap math, the actual burn data and a clear look at the price milestones that are within reach.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile. Always conduct your own research.

Shiba Inu at a Glance: October 2026
MetricValueCurrent Price~$0.0000050 (October 22, 2026)All-Time High$0.00008845 (October 28, 2021)Distance to 1 Cent~2,000x, or about +200,000%Circulating Supply~589 trillion SHIBMarket Cap Today~$2.99 billion (31st largest)Market Cap at 1 Cent~$5.9 trillionTotal Crypto Market~$2.75 trillionTotal Burned~410.8 trillion SHIB (41% of the original supply)Burned in the Past 30 Days~673 million SHIB (about $3,800)
Sources: CoinMarketCap price and supply data and CoinGecko total market data on October 22, 2026; Shibburn burn data.

The 1 Cent Math: What Would It Actually Take?
A token’s price is its market value divided by its supply, so the fastest way to test any SHIB target is to multiply it by the number of tokens in circulation.

At one cent, SHIB’s roughly 589 trillion tokens would be worth about $5.9 trillion. That is about 3.6 times Bitcoin’s current market value of about $1.64 trillion and about 2.1 times the whole crypto market, which CoinGecko puts at about $2.75 trillion. Even at its all-time high of $0.00008845 in October 2021, today’s supply would be worth only about $52 billion.

Target PriceGain Needed From ~$0.0000050Market Value at Today’s SupplyHow It Compares Today$0.00001~2x~$5.9 billionRoughly SHIB’s level in early January 2026$0.0001~20x~$59 billionAbove the 2021 record; close to Solana’s current value$0.001~200x~$589 billionAbout twice Ethereum; second only to Bitcoin$0.01~2,000x~$5.9 trillionAbout 2.1 times the entire crypto market
Market values use a circulating supply of about 589 trillion SHIB and CoinMarketCap and CoinGecko data on October 22, 2026.

The jump from one row to the next is tenfold each time, and so is the market value required. Every serious path to one cent therefore depends on cutting the supply, which is where SHIB’s burn mechanism comes in.

Can Token Burns Get SHIB to 1 Cent?
Burning sends tokens to an address no one can spend from, permanently removing them from supply. About 410.8 trillion SHIB, or 41% of the original 1 quadrillion, has been burned so far, according to Shibburn. Almost all of it came in a single transaction in May 2021, when Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin burned about 410 trillion tokens that SHIB’s creator had sent him.

Burns since then have been tiny. Shibburn counts about 673 million SHIB burned in the past 30 days, worth roughly $3,800, which is about 0.0001% of the circulating supply. Our analysis of SHIB’s burn rate explains why the large percentage jumps often quoted in headlines describe very small amounts. Burns have also slowed for a technical reason: ShibTorch, the tool that burns SHIB using Shibarium gas fees, is under maintenance because the Shibarium bridge route it relies on is paused, U.Today reported on October 22.

To see what burns would need to achieve, consider two scenarios:

At today’s market value of about $3 billion, one cent would require a supply of about 300 billion SHIB. That means burning about 99.95% of the tokens in circulation.
At a market value of about $100 billion, roughly BNB’s size today, one cent would require a supply of about 10 trillion SHIB. That means burning about 579 trillion tokens. At the pace of the past 30 days, about 8.2 billion SHIB a year, that would take roughly 70,000 years.

Burns can support the price at the margin, but on current numbers they cannot do the heavy lifting a one-cent target requires.

What Would Need to Happen for SHIB to Reach 1 Cent
For one cent to become realistic, three things would have to change at once, and none of them is close today.

A deep supply cut. Even a far larger SHIB market value than today’s would leave one cent out of reach without removing most of the remaining supply: at a $100 billion value, about 98% of it. That would take a burn program thousands of times larger than the current one, or a token redesign that the project has not proposed.

A much larger crypto market. Without a supply cut, SHIB would need a market value of about $5.9 trillion. That only becomes conceivable in a crypto market many times its current size of about $2.75 trillion, with SHIB keeping a large share of it.

Sustained demand beyond meme coin cycles. SHIB’s rallies have come during short bursts of retail speculation. Shibarium, the layer-2 network launched in August 2023, and SHIB’s arrival on Solana on October 4, 2026, give the token more places to be used, but neither has yet created steady demand. Our report on what Shiba Inu is building looks at the roadmap.

What Forecasting Models Say About 1 Cent
None of the five forecasting models we reviewed, CoinCodex, Changelly, CoinLore, Telegaon and Gate, projects one cent, or even $0.001, in any year it publishes.

CoinCodex states that SHIB “will not reach $0.01” and puts its highest projection at about $0.000023 in 2050.
CoinLore has the highest long-range figure, a 2040 bull case of about $0.00021.
Telegaon, the most optimistic on the near term, reaches about $0.000055 in 2030 and about $0.00035 in 2050.
Changelly and Gate keep SHIB below $0.00001 through 2030.

The first figure above $0.0001 in any of these models is Telegaon’s 2035 maximum of about $0.00011, and that would still need about 90 times more growth to reach one cent. For year-by-year targets with bear, base and bull cases from 2026 to 2040, see our Shiba Inu price prediction.

More Realistic SHIB Price Milestones
$0.00001. SHIB traded at about $0.0000101 on January 5, 2026, so this level is about a double from today. It would require a broad meme coin recovery, but no change in supply or market structure.

$0.0001. A move above $0.0001 would set a new all-time high and value SHIB at about $59 billion, close to Solana’s current market value. Only Telegaon’s 2035 range reaches it among the models we reviewed, and it would likely require a full crypto bull cycle in which SHIB regains its 2021 popularity.

$0.001. This would make SHIB worth about $589 billion, roughly twice Ethereum’s current value. No model we reviewed projects it in any year.

Will Shiba Inu Ever Reach 1 Cent?
The most balanced answer is: not with the current supply, and not on any timeline that forecasters publish.

SHIB has delivered huge percentage gains before. In 2021 it rose by many thousands of percent in a matter of months, but it did so from a market value of almost nothing. Repeating that kind of multiple from about $3 billion would require a market value larger than the entire crypto market today, which is why the one-cent goal depends on supply rather than on sentiment.

What is realistic is a recovery within the range SHIB has already traded in. A return to its January high near $0.00001 needs about a double, and a new record above $0.0001 is a long-cycle bull case. For the short-term picture, see our Shiba Inu price page, and for how SHIB compares with the largest meme coin, see our Dogecoin vs. Shiba Inu comparison.

Related Articles

Shiba Inu Price Prediction
Shiba Inu Price Today
Where to Buy Shiba Inu (SHIB)
Will Dogecoin Reach $1? The Honest Answer for 2026 and Beyond

Frequently Asked Questions
Will Shiba Inu reach 1 cent?
Almost certainly not at today’s supply. From about $0.0000050, SHIB needs a gain of roughly 200,000% to reach one cent, which would value it at about $5.9 trillion, more than twice the entire crypto market of about $2.75 trillion. None of the five forecasting models we reviewed projects one cent, and CoinCodex states directly that SHIB will not reach it.

When will Shiba Inu reach 1 cent?
No forecasting model gives a date, because none expects it. The highest figures we found are CoinLore’s 2040 bull case of about $0.00021 and Telegaon’s 2050 maximum of about $0.00035, both far below one cent. A realistic path would require burning most of the remaining supply, something no current program comes close to doing.

How many SHIB need to be burned for 1 cent?
It depends on SHIB’s market value. At today’s value of about $3 billion, supply would have to fall from about 589 trillion to about 300 billion tokens, a 99.95% cut. At a $100 billion value, it would have to fall to about 10 trillion, which means burning about 579 trillion SHIB. At the recent pace of about 8.2 billion a year, that would take roughly 70,000 years.

Can Shiba Inu reach $0.001?
Not on any model we reviewed. At about 589 trillion tokens, $0.001 would mean a market value of about $589 billion, roughly twice Ethereum’s current value and enough to make SHIB the second-largest cryptocurrency. The highest figure in any model is Telegaon’s 2050 maximum of about $0.00035, about a third of that level.

How much SHIB has been burned so far?
About 410.8 trillion SHIB, or 41% of the original 1 quadrillion supply, according to Shibburn. Almost all of it came from Vitalik Buterin’s burn in May 2021. In the past 30 days, about 673 million SHIB were burned, worth roughly $3,800, or about 0.0001% of the circulating supply of roughly 589 trillion tokens.

What is the highest price Shiba Inu has ever reached?
Shiba Inu’s all-time high is $0.00008845, set on October 28, 2021, during that year’s meme coin mania. In the last cycle it peaked at about $0.0000457 in March 2024. At about $0.0000050 in October 2026, SHIB trades roughly 94% below its record, and even the record was about 113 times below one cent.

The Commodity Markets Council (CMC), which represents derivative exchanges such as the CME Group, is pushing for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to deny Kalshi’s request to offer perpetual crude oil contracts. The group is also seeking to block retail traders from gaining access to offshore derivatives platforms.

CMC Push For CFTC To Block Kalshi’s Proposed Oil Perpetuals
According to a Bloomberg report, the group of commodity exchanges has urged the CFTC to block Kalshi’s proposed plan to offer perpetual crude oil futures. The CMC argues that these perpetual contracts pose risks to market integrity.

This move follows the filing from the top prediction markets platform earlier this week in which it sought the regulator’s approval to offer WTI perpetuals. It is worth noting that Kalshi already offers WTI futures that trade on weekdays, which it launched earlier this month.

A potential approval of the WTI perpetuals would add to a growing list of perpetual contracts that the prediction market platform offers. Earlier this month, Kalshi launched its US 500 perpetual futures contract.

Meanwhile, the platform also offers crypto perpetuals including Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and HYPE. It also offers CFTC-regulated gold and silver perpetuals.

CMC Asks CFTC To Block Access To Offshore Platforms
CMC also asked the CFTC to work with regulators to block U.S. retail traders from accessing offshore derivatives platforms via VPNs. This comes as offshore crypto platforms like Hyperliquid continue to enjoy massive adoption.

Hyperliquid, in particular, notably offers perpetual TradFi markets that trade 24/7. Exchanges CME and NYSE reportedly urged the CFTC earlier this year to tighten its scrutiny of perpetual decentralized exchange market manipulation and sanctions-exposure concerns.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid is reportedly working with the CFTC to enter the U.S. market, a move that will increase competition for Kalshi and other derivatives exchanges. At a White House meeting with crypto stakeholders, President Donald Trump also confirmed that the regulator was looking to bring the perp DEX into the U.S. in a compliant way.

For more on prediction markets, check out Best Regulated Prediction Markets in the U.S.

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If Bitcoin drops below $80,000, total long position liquidations on major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will hit $692 million.

According to Coinglass data, if Bitcoin falls below $80,000, the total long liquidation intensity on major centralized exchanges (CEXs) will reach $692 million. Conversely, if Bitcoin breaks through $83,000, the total short liquidation intensity on major CEXs will hit $1.025 billion. BlockBeats Note: Liquidation charts do not display the exact number of pending liquidations or the exact value of liquidated contracts. The bars on these charts actually represent the relative importance (intensity) of each liquidation cluster compared to adjacent clusters. Therefore, the liquidation chart shows the degree of impact when the underlying asset’s price reaches a specific level. A higher "liquidation bar" indicates that once the price hits that level, it will trigger a stronger reaction due to liquidity waves.

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Bitcoin falls below $81,000, with a 4.3% drop in the past 24 hours.

According to HTX market data, Bitcoin fell below $81,000, with a 4.3% decline in the past 24 hours.

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a16z General Partner Chris Dixon has officially published an announcement renaming a16z crypto to a16z Frontier, expanding its investment scope from crypto startups to a broader set of frontier technology startups—those building new technologies, opening up new markets, and taking years to mature. Dixon emphasized this is a scope expansion, not a pivot; the team will continue investing in crypto and related businesses while advocating for reasonable crypto regulation. Dixon noted that as blockchain gains wider adoption, Wall Street and fintech firms have regularly launched on-chain products, making the "crypto company" label less significant. Companies should be defined by their core business activities, not the technology they employ. His remarks also touch on the ongoing AI wave: beyond using AI to speed up and enhance existing work, focus is on native new use cases emerging from AI, full-stack startups integrating hardware, software and services, and new networks connecting humans and intelligent agents. Dixon believes blockchain will still play a critical role in this space, serving as a fast, low-cost, global, programmable financial infrastructure for the internet. Stablecoins are becoming a standard tool for fintech firms and institutions, and can also support machine-to-machine transactions and the cold start of new networks. He will lead the fund alongside firm founders Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz, as well as general partners Eddy Lazzarin and Guy Wuollet. The operating team will continue supporting current and future portfolio companies in areas including regulation, market entry, talent, marketing and technology R&D.

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General partner Ali Yahya is also reportedly leaving to build a startup, months after the team announced a $2.2 billion fifth fund.

General partner Ali Yahya is also reportedly leaving to build a startup, months after the team announced a $2.2 billion fifth fund.

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Today we’re announcing that we’re expanding the scope of our new fund beyond crypto startups to the broader category of frontier startups: companies building new technologies and creating markets that may take years to develop. To reflect this, we’re renaming a16z crypto to a16z Frontier. This is an expansion: we will continue to invest in crypto and related ventures and advocate for sensible crypto regulation.

When we started investing in crypto, it was a world of its own. But as blockchains have become more widely used, the lines have blurred and the infrastructure has gradually receded into the background. Wall Street and fintech companies now regularly launch products built on blockchains. Does that make them crypto companies? The label matters less now. It makes more sense to define companies by what they do rather than by the technologies they use.

Our expansion also reflects an approach that has guided many of our investments for years: backing technologies that look futuristic, well before they reach the mainstream. When I joined a16z in 2013, I made these kinds of long-horizon investments a focus. One theme was new computing devices. The growth of smartphones made cameras, sensors, and chips better and cheaper, enabling new devices like drones, AR/VR headsets, and wearables. That theme led to investments in Oculus and drone startups like Skydio and Zipline.

The other was crypto, which I saw as a new wave built on social media and the open source movement. Social media allowed networks like Bitcoin and Ethereum to gain traction from the outside in, as people formed communities without first needing mainstream acceptance. Open source provided the model for software that anyone could inspect, modify, and build on. Blockchains extended that model from software to services and networks. This theme guided our investment in Coinbase and the creation of our crypto funds, as well as later investments in projects like Solana and Uniswap.

Now we are in the middle of another major tech wave centered on AI. The buildout of AI models and infrastructure will continue, but the tech is already sufficiently advanced to spawn a new generation of products and services. No one knows exactly what that generation will look like, but we’re beginning to catch glimpses. We’re especially interested in the new products and markets these advances will enable, including ones that don’t fit into existing categories.

Foremost is the emergence of native use cases: brand-new activities you couldn’t do before. Early applications of new technologies tend to focus on doing old things better. To date, AI has mostly been used to do existing activities — like coding and other knowledge work — faster, better, and cheaper. But soon native uses will open up entirely new, unexpected experiences. At first, many of these experiments will look strange and unserious, like toys and hobbies, but over time some will grow into mainstream products. The key to telling the difference is to understand their potential rates of improvement, the factors that can bend deceptively marginal growth into an exponential curve.

We’re lucky enough to be living through one of the most consequential curves in human history today. Technological progress is accelerating rapidly, and we’re already starting to see early signals about what a post-AGI world might look like. For one thing, software and increasingly hardware are becoming easier to create. Just as the growth of smartphones fueled an earlier computing cycle, we expect a proliferation of new devices to underpin this one. Some of these will be autonomous machines that can perceive, reason, and act in the physical world. Others will draw on advances in biology and medicine. Still others will fall somewhere, cybernetically, in between.

All these advances will present new ways of building companies. We’ll see more full-stack startups that combine software with hardware and services, as founders take advantage of new capabilities and seek new forms of defensibility. Even the idea of what it means to be a founder may change as we gain more superpowers and as AI agents become increasingly autonomous, able to act on their own. As these capabilities spread, they could change how industries are organized and even give rise to new ones.

AI will also enable entirely new kinds of networks connecting people and intelligent agents that learn, coordinate, produce, and transact. The large-scale networks we use every day were made for humans. Networks built for machines will look very different. Many will start as single-player tools and evolve into multiplayer networks. The potential here — for machine-age networks — is enormous, and builders have barely begun to scratch the surface.

Blockchains will play a significant role in this transformation. Crypto has given the internet money rails that are fast, cheap, global, and programmable. Stablecoins are quickly becoming a standard tool for fintechs, established institutions, and others. And, because blockchains are programmable, both centralized and decentralized financial services can be built on top. Crypto can give new networks native economic capabilities, enable machine-to-machine transactions, and create new ways to bootstrap them.

These are examples, not boundaries. The defining companies of past waves were rarely the ones anyone predicted. As always, we expect founders to surprise us and create categories we haven’t imagined yet.

I’ll be leading the fund along with the firm’s founders Marc and Ben, and GPs Eddy Lazzarin and Guy Wuollet. Our operating teams will continue to work with our existing and future portfolio companies on regulatory, go-to-market, talent, marketing, and technical R&D.

We believe some of the most important technology waves are still ahead. Ideas that seem weird or far-fetched today will become indispensable, era-defining products of the future. If you are a founder building what comes next, please reach out.

Not an offer or solicitation. None of the information herein should be taken as investment advice; Some of the companies mentioned are portfolio companies of a16z. Please see a16z.com/disclosures for more information. A list of investments made by a16z is available at a16z.com/portfolio.

One of crypto’s most recognizable venture backers just got a new name. a16z Crypto, the digital-asset arm of Andreessen Horowitz, is rebranding as a16z Frontier.

What changed, and what didn’t
The rebrand was announced on October 22, 2026, by managing partner Chris Dixon. He framed the move as an expanded mandate rather than a retreat from the asset class.

Under the new banner, the firm plans to back what it calls “frontier startups.” Those are companies building long-horizon technologies and chasing new market opportunities.

Dixon confirmed the widened scope includes AI-native applications and autonomous technologies. Those sit alongside the firm’s existing crypto portfolio, not in place of it.

The firm also said it will keep investing in crypto and related fields. It plans to continue pushing for sensible regulatory frameworks, a cause the team has championed for years.

The numbers behind the name change
The rebrand lands alongside some telling fundraising figures. The team’s most recent fund raised $2.2 billion.

That is well below the $4.5 billion it raised in 2022. The 2022 vehicle was closed near the height of the last crypto venture cycle, and the follow-up came in at less than half that size.

Across five funds since inception, the team has raised approximately $10 billion in total.

There is also a personnel shift. Ali Yahya, a founding general partner of the crypto team, is leaving to start his own venture.

How a16z got here
a16z has been among the most prominent investors in crypto since launching its first dedicated fund in 2018. Its portfolio has spanned DeFi, core infrastructure, and consumer applications.

The rebrand also reflects a trend the firm itself highlighted: blockchain components are increasingly showing up inside companies that would not call themselves crypto startups. Stablecoin rails, onchain identity, and tokenized ownership can sit quietly under products marketed as something else entirely.

What this means for crypto founders and investors
For crypto founders, the immediate question is whether a broader mandate means a thinner slice of attention. A fund that once had one lane now has several, and partner bandwidth is finite.

The firm’s public stance points the other way. By explicitly committing to keep funding crypto, a16z is signaling that the asset class stays in the portfolio, just alongside AI-native and autonomous tech rather than alone.

The fundraising data tells a more sobering story about the venture market. A drop from $4.5 billion to $2.2 billion between funds suggests that limited partners were less eager to write enormous crypto-only checks than they were in 2022.

Policy is another thread. a16z has been one of the louder industry voices calling for workable crypto rules in the US, and the firm says that advocacy continues under the Frontier name.

The key signals going forward are concrete ones: the mix of deals the rebranded fund announces, the size of its next raise, and whether crypto still claims a meaningful share of new checks.

Disclosure: This article was edited by John Chen. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.

One bug linked a stranger to an existing LDAP account through an email lookup nobody sanitized. The other let an unauthenticated user rewrite the map clients trust to find the identity provider. Same failure, one layer apart.

GitLab shipped a critical patch release on October 21, 2026, fixing 12 security vulnerabilities across its Community and Enterprise editions. It covers versions 19.5.1, 19.4.3, 19.3.6, 19.2.9, 19.1.9, 19.0.10 and 18.11.13, detailed on the patch release page. Two identity bugs lead the advisory: CVE-2026-15723 and CVE-2026-112212. Both trusted input nobody checked.

Identity linking and cache poisoning
CVE-2026-15723 is high severity, CVSS 8.2, and affects GitLab CE and EE from 10.1 before 19.3.6, 19.4 before 19.4.3 and 19.5 before 19.5.1. The advisory states: “GitLab has remediated an issue that, when OmniAuth SAML and LDAP auto-linking were both enabled, an authenticated user could have taken over an existing LDAP-backed account without any interaction from the targeted user, due to improper input sanitization in the LDAP email lookup path used during OmniAuth identity linking.” It was reported by ‘stealthy’ through the HackerOne bug bounty program.

The auto-linking layer is the origin-check gap one layer down. Federation linked two identities on the strength of an email lookup it never sanitized. The advisory states no workaround. Because the flaw sits behind its stated condition, the implication is that disabling LDAP auto-linking alongside OmniAuth SAML reduces exposure: implied by the prerequisites the advisory names, not an officially stated mitigation. The advisory itself states no workaround.

CVE-2026-112212 is high severity, CVSS 7.5, and affects CE and EE from 18.3 before 19.3.6, 19.4 before 19.4.3 and 19.5 before 19.5.1. The advisory states: “GitLab has remediated an issue that, under certain conditions, an unauthenticated user could have poisoned a shared cache’s OAuth/OIDC discovery document to redirect certain flows to an externally controlled server, due to improper trust of user-supplied values when constructing endpoint URLs in cached discovery responses.” The vector carries UI:R, user interaction required. It was discovered internally by GitLab team member Peter Arts.

Discovery is a trust decision, and an agent that fetches its own identity map is trusting whatever answers the fetch. The advisory’s “certain conditions” point at a shared cache in front of a deployment serving its own OAuth/OIDC discovery, a shape implied by its description of cached discovery responses rather than stated as a prerequisite.

Membership lock, and the release’s headline fix
CVE-2026-16255, the third of these, is medium, CVSS 5.9, EE-only. The advisory states: “GitLab has remediated an issue that, when the instance-wide SAML or LDAP membership lock was enabled, an authenticated user could have granted or accepted project and group membership outside the identity provider’s control, due to incomplete enforcement of the membership lock on requests created before the lock was enabled.” It affects EE from 12.0 before 19.3.6, 19.4 before 19.4.3 and 19.5 before 19.5.1, reported by 3nvz through HackerOne.

The release’s headline fix is CVE-2026-110264, critical, CVSS 10.0: “GitLab has remediated an issue that, under certain conditions, could have allowed an unauthenticated user to execute arbitrary code on the GitLab server due to integer overflow when compiling a specially crafted regular expression.” It reaches back to version 7.0, and GitLab backported the fix beyond its standard lines to 18.11.13, 19.0.10, 19.1.9 and 19.2.9. Reported by joaxcar through HackerOne. GitLab’s security team shipped two named detections for it, “Onigmo native worker crash” and “Org mode render error burst.”

The remaining eight fixes are medium and low, spanning a GraphQL work item email field, internal response headers, a group milestones API bypass and an AI Gateway billing header.

Distinct incidents, one family
Neither identity bug reprises Forkast’s earlier GitLab coverage. On October 3 the desk covered the AI Gateway sandbox escape, a prompt-template flaw rated CVSS 9.9. On September 12 it covered the Commits-API exploitation, a CVSS 10 that drew active exploitation within hours. This pair belongs to the trust-through-defaults family Forkast has tracked in the eight-vendor bypass wave and the origin-check gap analysis: a new vendor, a new mechanism surface.

GitLab recommends all self-managed installations upgrade immediately. GitLab.com already runs the patched version, and Dedicated tenants on 19.3.5-internal0 and 19.4.2-internal0 or later need no action. Vulnerability details go public on GitLab’s issue tracker 90 days after the release that patched them. One upgrade note: the patch carries database migrations, so single-node installs go down during the upgrade while multi-node installs can avoid it with proper procedures.

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Pendle expands one-click looping to tokenized stocks on Base

Hourly activity cooled into Oct. 22 after daily active addresses reached 571,767; transaction counts rose much less sharply.

Hourly activity cooled into Oct. 22 after daily active addresses reached 571,767; transaction counts rose much less sharply.

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The Arbitrum Mentorship Program is back for Cohort 2 in collaboration with Robinhood Chain.

Following the success of the first cohort, the Arbitrum Foundation is opening applications for the next group of early-stage teams building the next generation of products on Arbitrum One and Robinhood Chain.

Cohort 2 is a 12-week program built around two things founders need most as they move from early product to scale: access to capital and hands-on support to execute. Selected teams will work closely with mentors, operators, investors, and ecosystem partners throughout the program, with $100K in prizes available for the top-performing teams. The program concludes with Demo Day, where participating teams will present to an audience expected to include 50+ investors.

Applications for Cohort 2 are open until December 6th , 2026.

Building on Cohort 1The first cohort showed what can happen when strong founders get direct access to the right operators, investors, and ecosystem partners early.

More than 900 teams applied for Cohort 1 with ten teams presenting at Demo Day. Since then, Cohort 1 teams have collectively reported raising more than $10M, teams launched across Arbitrum One and Robinhood Chain, and dozens of investor introductions were made throughout the cohort.

Cohort 2 builds on those learnings with a more curated mentor network, closer support around fundraising and go-to-market, earlier investor engagement, and a greater focus on measurable progress throughout the program.

The objective is straightforward: help strong founders build, launch, grow, and raise on Arbitrum.

What Founders Can ExpectCohort 2 is designed around two core pillars: fundraising support and strategic execution.

Fundraising SupportFundraising support starts from the beginning of the program, not just at Demo Day.

Teams will work directly with investors and experienced operators to strengthen how they position their companies, structure their fundraising story, communicate traction, and pitch.

The program will include investment-readiness sessions, investor pitching workshops, pitch reviews, curated introductions to venture funds, and dedicated Demo Day preparation.

Teams will also begin with an internal Demo Day, giving mentors an early view into each company and helping identify the biggest gaps to work on over the following 12 weeks.

By the time founders reach the final Demo Day on the 25th of March 2027, the goal is for them to have a much stronger company story, investor pipeline, pitch, and understanding of what institutional investors are looking for.

Strategic Execution & MentorshipCohort 2 is designed to help founders make meaningful progress on the challenges that matter most to their companies.

Throughout the program, teams will take part in hands-on sessions covering areas such as product strategy, go-to-market, positioning, user acquisition, partnerships, data and growth, tokenomics, stablecoin infrastructure, AI tooling, and building on Robinhood Chain.

Rather than broad lectures, sessions will focus on practical execution and real company challenges, with the aim of helping founders leave with something they can apply directly to their business whether that is a clearer roadmap, growth experiment, partnership strategy, positioning framework, investor deck, or launch plan.

Founders will also work with contributors and teams from across the Arbitrum ecosystem and wider industry, including Robinhood Chain, Pantera, Pendle, Variational, USD.AI, Paxos, Entropy, Offchain Labs, & others alongside the Arbitrum Foundation. Ongoing access to mentors, ecosystem partners, and investors will give teams opportunities to pressure-test ideas, strengthen their companies, and build relationships ahead of Demo Day.

Who Should Apply?The Mentorship Program is designed for ambitious teams that are already building or are committed to building on Arbitrum One or Robinhood Chain.

We are particularly interested in teams that can demonstrate:

A working prototype, MVP, testnet deployment, or early live productPreseed or seed stage teamsA committed founding team with the ability to execute quicklyA clear problem and differentiated product thesisAmbition to build a category-leading companyA commitment to launch or scale on Arbitrum One or Robinhood ChainThe ability to make meaningful product, growth, or fundraising progress during the programTeams do not need to already be deployed on Arbitrum to apply. Founders currently exploring ecosystems can apply if they are prepared to commit to building on Arbitrum One or Robinhood Chain as part of the program.

From Application to Demo DayApplications will be reviewed on an ongoing basis, with selected teams progressing through the review and interview process ahead of the program kickoff. Kick off date for the program is planned for the 5th of January, 2027 and ends with Demo Day on the 25th of March, 2027. Dates are subject to change.

Demo Day will bring together participating teams, investors, ecosystem partners, and mentors, giving founders the opportunity to showcase what they have built and the progress they have made throughout the program.

Cohort 1 was the starting point.

Cohort 2 is about going further: giving founders earlier access to investors, deeper strategic support, and a clearer path from early product to a company that can launch, grow, and raise on Arbitrum One or Robinhood Chain.

Applications are now open.

Legal Disclaimer: Participation is subject to the Arbitrum Mentorship Program Terms and Privacy Notice . Prizes are awarded at the Arbitrum Foundation's sole discretion and are subject to eligibility, KYC and sanctions screening, as well as entering into a legal agreement with the Arbitrum Foundation which may include project exclusivity provisions, milestones or KPIs to unlock the full amount of the prize and investment rights. Program sessions are educational and don't constitute legal, financial, tax or investment advice. The Arbitrum Foundation doesn't guarantee any investment or funding outcome. Dates and program content may change.

Not financial or tax advice. PANews content is strictly educational and informational and is not investment advice, financial advice, tax advice, legal advice, or a solicitation to buy or sell any digital asset, security, or financial product. Do your own research and consult qualified advisers.

Disclosure. PANews may publish sponsored content, partner content, advertisements, affiliate links, event promotions, and market commentary involving Web3 projects, service providers, or financial products. PANews personnel, contributors, or affiliates may hold digital assets or other interests related to covered topics. See our Terms of Service.

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A US gov wallet moved $1B in BTC. Arkham's Miguel Morel breaks down transaction trails, potential sales vs. custody transfers, and reserve policy factors.

A US government-linked wallet just moved about $1 billion in Bitcoin from the Bitfinex hack, and the market wants to know if a sale is coming. Arkham Intelligence CEO Miguel Morel explains what the transaction trail shows, what it can’t show, and why it’s still unclear whether the coins are being sold or moved to a new custodian. He also breaks down how disposal orders and the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve factor in.

Chapters:
00:00 US Government Moves $1B in Bitfinex Hack Bitcoin
00:47 Sale or Custody Change? What the Government Might Be Doing
01:52 How Arkham Labels Government Wallets
03:30 Tracking Bitcoin Treasury Companies Before SEC Filings
05:18 Why Exchanges Like Coinbase Can Be a Black Box
06:26 Segregated Wallets and Tracking MicroStrategy
07:52 How AI Agents Are Using Arkham Today
09:42 Is There Any Privacy Left On-Chain?
12:02 Does Anonymity Help or Hurt Institutional Adoption?
14:12 How Investigators Trace Stolen Funds From Hacks

DISCLAIMER: The views and opinions expressed in this show are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine, or any affiliated entities. This content is provided for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment, legal, tax, or accounting advice. Nothing contained in this show constitutes a solicitation, recommendation, endorsement, or offer to buy or sell any securities or financial instruments. Viewers should consult their own advisors before making financial or business decisions.

Patrick Green

Patrick Green is an Assistant Producer and Channel Manager on the multimedia team at Bitcoin Magazine, focusing on production, content distribution, and channel strategy across the network.

A wallet connected to the United States government recently transferred approximately $1 billion worth of Bitcoin originally seized from the Bitfinex hack, raising questions within the crypto community about whether the assets are being prepared for sale or transferred to a different custodian.

Expert insights on government Bitcoin movementsMiguel Morel, CEO of Arkham Intelligence—a blockchain analytics firm specializing in labeling large crypto wallets—stated that it remains unclear whether these Bitcoin holdings are poised for sale or are merely being moved between wallets for security or custodial changes. Morel explained that while on-chain analysts can trace movements across different addresses, definitive conclusions about the government’s intent are elusive without additional context.

In his assessment, Morel indicated that transaction records provide transparency regarding wallet activity, but they do not reveal the precise motives behind such transfers or whether the coins are being liquidated, simply stating, “On-chain data shows where the coins go, but not always why.”

He noted that assets seized in large hacks, like the Bitfinex case, often remain dormant in government-controlled wallets for extended periods before any action is taken. However, significant movements from these wallets typically generate market speculation about a potential sell-off.

Market impact and tracking methodsThe transfer has directed attention to how authorities manage and label their digital asset holdings. Morel elaborated on Arkham’s approach to tagging government-held wallets using public records, court documents, and blockchain analytics. He pointed out that these labeling techniques are crucial for providing greater transparency, but challenges remain when authorities choose new custody providers or alter their usual storage habits.

Treasury companies, cryptocurrency exchanges, and institutional investors often utilize sophisticated custody solutions and segmented wallets to manage security and privacy. Morel noted that exchanges such as Coinbase operate extensive internal wallet systems, making it difficult for external observers to trace the full lifecycle of transferred coins.

He added that using segregated wallets and advanced detection methods enables transparency in monitoring large holders, including entities such as MicroStrategy, which manage substantial Bitcoin reserves.

Mini dictionary: Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analytics company, focuses on identifying the owners of major cryptocurrency wallets and tracking large on-chain transactions for transparency and investigative purposes.

Privacy and institutional adoptionThe discussion also delved into the broader implications of privacy and transparency for institutional adoption of digital assets. Morel commented that, while blockchain technology offers traceable ledgers, sophisticated exchanges and custodians can obscure the ultimate ownership and disposition of funds. He emphasized that this intersection of privacy and regulation presents both opportunities and challenges for mainstream financial players considering increased involvement in digital assets.

Investigators employ multiple techniques to trace illicit or stolen coins, relying on blockchain data and specialized analytics. Successful recovery of stolen assets depends on the ability to connect on-chain movements to real-world identities or centralized entities.

Morel highlighted, “The market responds sharply to news of large government asset movements, especially when the source is related to major hacks or seizures.”

As of now, public block explorers show that the $1 billion in Bitcoin remains in a wallet classified as “unknown” and there is no confirmation of any sale. Analysts continue to watch for further transactions that could indicate the intent behind this substantial transfer.

Gate Releases Q3 2026 Report: Derivatives Volume Ranks Top 3 Globally, Deepening Comprehensive Financial Ecosystem

In This Article

Sui Technical Analysis: Can $1 Be ReclaimedGlobal Events That Could Propel SUI to New HighsGoogle Gemini AI Predicts a Wild SUI Move: The Big Reveal

Something potentially explosive could be building for Sui (SUI) by January 1, 2027, according to Gemini. Google Gemini AI predicts that in an intentionally extreme, over-the-top scenario built around a hypothetical landmark catalyst, SUI price could be set for a historic move over Q4 and into 2027.

The concept centers on a major consortium of global gaming studios, social platforms, and consumer technology companies that have officially chosen Sui as the primary high-throughput blockchain for next-generation on-chain games, real-time social applications, and mass-market consumer experiences.

Under this framework, hundreds of millions of users would engage with Sui-powered applications daily, driving unprecedented transaction volume and establishing SUI as fundamental infrastructure for the mainstream consumer crypto economy.

(SOURCE: Google Gemini AI Predicts a Huge Move for SUI)

Sui Technical Analysis: Can $1 Be Reclaimed
Away from the Google Gemini AI predicts SUI price, on the higher timeframes, SUI has been consolidating near the $0.98–$1.05 region after a broader pullback from higher levels earlier in the cycle. Price continues to hold above key intermediate supports while facing resistance around the $1.10–$1.20 zone.

In a standard bull market, a sustained breakout above $1.50–$2.00 would confirm intermediate strength and open the path toward higher cycle targets and a longer-term recovery toward the prior all-time high near $5.35.

Under the extreme mass-consumer gaming and social adoption scenario outlined above, clearing significant resistance levels would likely trigger powerful measured-move extensions and multi-cycle Fibonacci projections from the longer-term base.

Momentum indicators currently sit in neutral territory with considerable room to run into the extreme overbought readings typical of parabolic advances. Key nearer-term supports sit near $0.95–$0.98 and $0.85–$0.90; holding those levels would keep the broader recovery structure intact.

DISCOVER: Next 1000x Crypto Plays for 2026 and Beyond

Global Events That Could Propel SUI to New Highs
Beyond Sui-specific developments, several major global events could provide a powerful tailwind for the broader crypto market. A durable end to the Russia-Ukraine war would reduce geopolitical risk premiums and free up capital currently sidelined by uncertainty.

A lasting ceasefire between Iran and the United States, combined with the permanent reopening and normalization of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, would ease energy price volatility and improve global risk appetite.

Additional positive catalysts could include a clear pivot by major central banks toward more accommodative monetary policy, resolution of other regional conflicts, or breakthrough international agreements that reduce trade fragmentation.

Any combination of these would likely drive liquidity back into risk assets, amplifying upside across crypto.

Google Gemini AI Predicts a Wild SUI Move: The Big Reveal
Under this highly speculative scenario, and assuming a full-blown crypto bull market returns alongside supportive global developments, Sui (SUI) could reach somewhere between $25 and $45, with a stretch target toward $70+ by January 1, 2027.

This remains pure speculation and entertainment, not a realistic base-case outlook. The catalyst would require extraordinary coordination among major gaming, social, and consumer technology companies that is currently highly unlikely.

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The Bitcoin price has erased its two-day gains after a rejection near $85,000. Bitcoin (BTC) slid about 4% to an intraday low of $81,652 on Bybit.

On-chain data and price charts now point to $80,000 as the next key test. Absent buyers and fading momentum could make that level decisive.

Bitcoin Treasuries Sit Near Breakeven but Stopped BuyingCorporate Bitcoin treasuries hold BTC at an average cost basis of about $80,000, according to Glassnode. The price has closed above that level since September 18.

However, treasury buying has not returned. Monthly net purchases have shrunk to a few thousand BTC, far below the 2025 peaks.

Glassnode notes that buying in profit can feed on itself. Purchases lift the price, which lifts their shares and funds more purchases. That loop has not restarted.

BTC treasury companies are in profit but barely buying.

They hold $BTC at a cost basis of about $80K, and price has closed above it since September 18.

In profit, buying can feed on itself: purchases lift price, price lifts their shares, and their shares fund more purchases. https://t.co/qcFvRu88Xs pic.twitter.com/jOtlUBEVWy

— glassnode (@glassnode) October 21, 2026 Meanwhile, exchange stablecoin reserves have fallen to a one-year low, draining fresh buying power from the market.

A drop below $80,000 would push treasuries back underwater. In mid-2022, a similar stretch below cost basis brought one of the only notable net sales on Glassnode’s chart.

Short-Term Holders Offer a Deeper CushionRecent buyers paint a calmer picture. The short-term holder (STH) realized price stood at $74,850 on October 21, per Glassnode.

This metric tracks the average cost basis of recently acquired coins. With BTC near $82,000, these holders remain about 9% in profit.

Bitcoin price vs. short-term holder realized price / Source: GlassnodeHistorically, this line capped the price through most of 2026. BTC was rejected there in May and sank below $60,000 by early July.

Bitcoin reclaimed the level in late August. Holding above it keeps the recovery structure intact.

Bitcoin Price Must Hold $81,500 to Avoid an $80,000 TestAnalyst Ted Pillows noted that the weekly candle turned red after BTC failed to hold $84,500. Still, he said buyers have not lost control, as Bitcoin holds above its 50-day averages.

$BTC weekly candle has turned red.

Bitcoin failed to hold above $84,500 and has completely erased its last two days' gains.

The good thing is Bitcoin is still holding above the 50D SMA and 50D EMA, which means buyers haven't completely lost control. pic.twitter.com/5R0ZOGIdpk

— Ted (@TedPillows) October 22, 2026 On the daily chart, BTC is testing the 50-day moving average at $81,835. It has also slipped just below the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $82,614.

BTC daily chart / Source: TradingviewThe 4-hour chart shows five consecutive red candles after a failed breakout above $84,000. The drop returned BTC to an ascending trendline from the October 15 low.

That trendline now meets the $81,500 swing low, forming the nearest support cluster.

Momentum is weakening. The 4-hour RSI sits near 45 and is breaking a rising trendline in place since October 8.

However, volume on the decline remains lower than during the recent rally. That suggests a lack of bids rather than aggressive selling.

BTC 4-hourly chart / Source: TradingviewIf $81,500 fails, the $80,000 treasury cost basis comes into play. Below that, the 0.5 Fibonacci level sits at $77,876.

The $73,000 to $75,000 zone holds the 0.382 Fibonacci level and the STH cost basis. That confluence could offer deeper support if the correction extends.

On the upside, reclaiming $84,000 would reopen the path toward the $85,000 to $87,000 resistance zone.

Disclaimer

This Analysis reflects BeInCrypto's editorial interpretation of information and data available at publication and may become outdated. It is general and non-personalised, does not consider your circumstances, and is not investment research, financial, investment, legal or tax advice, an offer or a recommendation. Forecasts, targets, technical analysis and forward-looking statements are uncertain and may not materialise; past performance and indicators do not predict future results. References to assets, products or providers do not imply endorsement. Crypto-assets and financial products may result in total loss. Verify material information before acting.